Home > Products > State Listing > South Dakota Data
Latest:
 AFDUNR |  AFDABR |  AFDFSD |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KABR 270528 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1128 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE SD/ND/MN
BORDER BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND
FRESH SNOW WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS BELOW ZERO BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER
WEST HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER AND LESS SNOWFALL SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. RETURN FLOW WINDS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL BE WARMER. IN
FACT...THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA TO NEAR 35 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT SNOWFALL...SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. DUE TO THE STRONG PUSH OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND MODEL
DOMINANT PTYPE PROGS ALL SUPPORTS THIS OCCURRENCE. THEREFORE WENT
AHEAD AND THREW THE WINTRY MIX INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...A VERY BRIEF WINDOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRENCE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY STEADY...OR EVEN RISING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATIONS OF SURFACE FEATURES. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH OUR
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR/PACIFIC AIR DOMINATING THE REGION WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT WEST RIDING ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING
ARCTIC BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA. THE SNOW COVER AND WINDS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH DAYS. WE MAY ALSO BE LOOKING
AT SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WITH THE SNOW MELT OCCURRING
AND HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION PROBABLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN BEHIND IT. THE ARCTIC AIR
AND COLD BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FOR THIS TIME...LOWS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AGAIN RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK CLOSE
TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...THE ENTIRE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER ON
THURSDAY SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 270528 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1128 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE SD/ND/MN
BORDER BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND
FRESH SNOW WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS BELOW ZERO BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER
WEST HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER AND LESS SNOWFALL SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. RETURN FLOW WINDS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL BE WARMER. IN
FACT...THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA TO NEAR 35 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT SNOWFALL...SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. DUE TO THE STRONG PUSH OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND MODEL
DOMINANT PTYPE PROGS ALL SUPPORTS THIS OCCURRENCE. THEREFORE WENT
AHEAD AND THREW THE WINTRY MIX INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...A VERY BRIEF WINDOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRENCE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY STEADY...OR EVEN RISING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATIONS OF SURFACE FEATURES. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH OUR
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR/PACIFIC AIR DOMINATING THE REGION WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT WEST RIDING ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING
ARCTIC BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA. THE SNOW COVER AND WINDS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH DAYS. WE MAY ALSO BE LOOKING
AT SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WITH THE SNOW MELT OCCURRING
AND HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION PROBABLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN BEHIND IT. THE ARCTIC AIR
AND COLD BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FOR THIS TIME...LOWS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AGAIN RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK CLOSE
TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...THE ENTIRE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER ON
THURSDAY SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KUNR 270504
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1004 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 153 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A TROF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE FAR SW CONUS. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH 150KT
JET ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SKIES ARE CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH WEAK
LOW/TROF ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT...NW-SE ORIENTED JET/BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE PRECIPITATION SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AS 500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND LOW TO
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES
AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT FZRA/FZDZ OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY AND
NORTHWESTERN SD LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS...TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING.

ON THURSDAY...WESTERN RIDGE AND WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS THE COLDER AIR RETREATS TO THE EAST
AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S TO MID
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 153 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH.
WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WILL BRING TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE NEXT TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY...BRINGING
A SURGE OF COLD AIR TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...NOW
HAVING IT PASS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS STILL
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS SOME MORE TO
ACCOUNT FOR GFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE A 30-40 DEGREE SPREAD FOR HIGH TEMPS
SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY
SUNDAY...BUT MINIMAL QPF IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY LOOKS COLD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS. MODELS SUGGEST
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 959 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACRS NERN WY AS LOW
STRATUS SHIFT EWD. WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO THU MRNG ACRS WRN SD ALONG WITH AREAS OF -SN. AS WARMER AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT LATER TONIGHT...SOME -FZRA MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NWRN SD. ALL PCPN AND LOW STRATUS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION BY THU NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 270504
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1004 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 153 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A TROF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE FAR SW CONUS. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH 150KT
JET ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SKIES ARE CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH WEAK
LOW/TROF ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT...NW-SE ORIENTED JET/BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE PRECIPITATION SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AS 500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND LOW TO
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES
AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT FZRA/FZDZ OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY AND
NORTHWESTERN SD LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS...TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING.

ON THURSDAY...WESTERN RIDGE AND WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS THE COLDER AIR RETREATS TO THE EAST
AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S TO MID
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 153 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH.
WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WILL BRING TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE NEXT TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY...BRINGING
A SURGE OF COLD AIR TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...NOW
HAVING IT PASS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS STILL
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS SOME MORE TO
ACCOUNT FOR GFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE A 30-40 DEGREE SPREAD FOR HIGH TEMPS
SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY
SUNDAY...BUT MINIMAL QPF IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY LOOKS COLD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS. MODELS SUGGEST
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 959 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACRS NERN WY AS LOW
STRATUS SHIFT EWD. WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO THU MRNG ACRS WRN SD ALONG WITH AREAS OF -SN. AS WARMER AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT LATER TONIGHT...SOME -FZRA MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NWRN SD. ALL PCPN AND LOW STRATUS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION BY THU NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KFSD 270354
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
954 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE
OVER SW MN AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH 06Z. BUT
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY ALONG AND WEST OF I29. AT THE SAME TIME
WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN NO LOCATION WILL HAVE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. IN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING AND COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RISE TOWARD DAWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE. EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WINDS WILL STAY UP LONGER.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN FAIRLY COLD AIR AS IT IS
ALREADY NEAR ZERO IN EASTERN ND. SO EXPECT THAT ADVECTION ITSELF
WILL GET LOWS NEAR ZERO. THEN AS WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THAT LOWS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF I90 AND EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER.

THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WARMER AIR WILL WORK NORTH
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE LIFT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
NOT SATURATED EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
SATURATION FROM ABOVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER EAST
CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD ALLOWS HIGHS TO REACH THE MID
30S...WHILE COLD AIR OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA KEEPS HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. IN FACT...MANY AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS IN THE EVENING AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ALLOW FOR RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION WILL RIPPLE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND ENHANCE LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE FOR
A SHORT TIME DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHIFT EAST WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT BAND. BEHIND THIS...THE MOIST LAYER SEEN TO BECOME QUITE
SHALLOW...1000 TO 2000 FEET OF DEPTH AS DEEPER SATURATION PULLS
EAST...WITH DECENT SHEAR AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. THIS WOULD
BRING SOME CONCERN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE MAINLY
NEAR/EAST OF I 29 LATER AT NIGHT. GFS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
HOLDING ON TO THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE BY THE NAM...WILL DESERVE SOME CLOSE MONITORING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE...
AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO HAVE A MARKEDLY NON
DIURNAL TREND MID AND EAST...WITH QUICKER DROP WEST AND MORE
STEADY LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND WINDS
BALANCE CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY WILL FIND A GREAT MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH/EAST...NORTH OF A SURFACE QUASI-WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXIST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD AID IN
DECREASING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS BACKING WINDS MORE TOWARD
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME WHICH COULD PULL THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WESTWARD. INVERSION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WILL LIMIT ABILITY TO MIX OUT SUCH CLOUDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE DECREASE IN GRADIENT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH THE POOLING OF A GREAT DEAL OF SNOW MELT MOISTURE BENEATH
THE INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRIDAY NIGHT IS MUCH MORE RIPE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE TIME HAVE MENTIONED SOME FOG
CHANCE BY LATE EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WOULD BE A SLOW DISSIPATION ON SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY ADVECTION REQUIRED TO REMOVE GIVEN FORMIDABLE INVERSION.
HAVE SHADED QUITE A BIT WARMER ON LOWS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
CLOUDS/FOG...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S...IF NOT EVEN WARMER.

CONSENSUS ON ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW QUITE A BIT SLOWER FOR SATURDAY...
AS DRIVING JET TAKES ABOUT 6 HOURS LONGER TO MOVE THE ENTRANCE
REGION INTO POSITION ACROSS THE REGION. THE SLOWED FRONT LEAVES
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SET UP TO BE QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY
SO THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. EXPECT VERY LITTLE SNOW
COVER TO REMAIN BY SATURDAY MIDDAY. PATTERN IS ALMOST AN EXACT
LOW TO MID LEVEL MATCH FOR THE LOCAL EXTREME EVENT CLIMATOLOGY FOR
WARMEST MAXES. GIVEN RAW MODEL SOLUTIONS... TEMPERATURES AND EVEN
THE MOST SHALLOW MIXING WOULD HAVE SIOUX CITY RECORD HIGH OF 63
DEGREES NOT OUT OF REACH. WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT CHANGING SO
MUCH OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH...TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY.

FRONT BLAST SOUTHWARD LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
PROBABLY WILL NOT STOP THE FALL WITH THE END OF THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CYCLE...AND STEADY TO SLOW FALL THEIR WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY
THAT SHOULD BE A FEW FLURRIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS WELL AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE ICE FAVORING ZONE. ARCTIC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY...BUT WITHOUT SNOW COVER SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF MODIFYING SLIGHTLY. MONDAY MORNING WILL STILL FIND LIGHTER
WINDS AND PROSPECT FOR MORE CLEAR SKIES...AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS
DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM INITIALIZATION GRIDS. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A BRIEF STAY ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BAROCLINICITY BEFORE NEXT TIME BOUNDARY
WAFFLES SOUTHWARD.

AGREEMENT HARDER AND HARDER TO COME BY IN LONGEST RANGES OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINGING WAVE INTO
CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE AREA ON LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ECMWF LOOKING TO ACCOMPLISH A SIMILAR TASK WITH
SYSTEM JUST A DAY OR SO LATER. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN LONGEST
RANGES...HAVE NOT ALTERED THE LOWER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD...AND MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH SIGNAL OF STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH CONCERNING IN TERMS OF
LOCKING IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DESPITE SOME WARMING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ANTICIPATE MVFR STRATUS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES...THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE
TONIGHT PICKING UP SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM



000
FXUS63 KFSD 270354
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
954 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE
OVER SW MN AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH 06Z. BUT
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY ALONG AND WEST OF I29. AT THE SAME TIME
WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN NO LOCATION WILL HAVE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. IN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING AND COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RISE TOWARD DAWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE. EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WINDS WILL STAY UP LONGER.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN FAIRLY COLD AIR AS IT IS
ALREADY NEAR ZERO IN EASTERN ND. SO EXPECT THAT ADVECTION ITSELF
WILL GET LOWS NEAR ZERO. THEN AS WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THAT LOWS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF I90 AND EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER.

THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WARMER AIR WILL WORK NORTH
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE LIFT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
NOT SATURATED EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
SATURATION FROM ABOVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER EAST
CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD ALLOWS HIGHS TO REACH THE MID
30S...WHILE COLD AIR OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA KEEPS HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. IN FACT...MANY AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS IN THE EVENING AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ALLOW FOR RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION WILL RIPPLE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND ENHANCE LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE FOR
A SHORT TIME DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHIFT EAST WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT BAND. BEHIND THIS...THE MOIST LAYER SEEN TO BECOME QUITE
SHALLOW...1000 TO 2000 FEET OF DEPTH AS DEEPER SATURATION PULLS
EAST...WITH DECENT SHEAR AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. THIS WOULD
BRING SOME CONCERN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE MAINLY
NEAR/EAST OF I 29 LATER AT NIGHT. GFS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
HOLDING ON TO THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE BY THE NAM...WILL DESERVE SOME CLOSE MONITORING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE...
AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO HAVE A MARKEDLY NON
DIURNAL TREND MID AND EAST...WITH QUICKER DROP WEST AND MORE
STEADY LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND WINDS
BALANCE CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY WILL FIND A GREAT MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH/EAST...NORTH OF A SURFACE QUASI-WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXIST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD AID IN
DECREASING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS BACKING WINDS MORE TOWARD
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME WHICH COULD PULL THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WESTWARD. INVERSION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WILL LIMIT ABILITY TO MIX OUT SUCH CLOUDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE DECREASE IN GRADIENT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH THE POOLING OF A GREAT DEAL OF SNOW MELT MOISTURE BENEATH
THE INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRIDAY NIGHT IS MUCH MORE RIPE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE TIME HAVE MENTIONED SOME FOG
CHANCE BY LATE EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WOULD BE A SLOW DISSIPATION ON SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY ADVECTION REQUIRED TO REMOVE GIVEN FORMIDABLE INVERSION.
HAVE SHADED QUITE A BIT WARMER ON LOWS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
CLOUDS/FOG...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S...IF NOT EVEN WARMER.

CONSENSUS ON ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW QUITE A BIT SLOWER FOR SATURDAY...
AS DRIVING JET TAKES ABOUT 6 HOURS LONGER TO MOVE THE ENTRANCE
REGION INTO POSITION ACROSS THE REGION. THE SLOWED FRONT LEAVES
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SET UP TO BE QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY
SO THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. EXPECT VERY LITTLE SNOW
COVER TO REMAIN BY SATURDAY MIDDAY. PATTERN IS ALMOST AN EXACT
LOW TO MID LEVEL MATCH FOR THE LOCAL EXTREME EVENT CLIMATOLOGY FOR
WARMEST MAXES. GIVEN RAW MODEL SOLUTIONS... TEMPERATURES AND EVEN
THE MOST SHALLOW MIXING WOULD HAVE SIOUX CITY RECORD HIGH OF 63
DEGREES NOT OUT OF REACH. WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT CHANGING SO
MUCH OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH...TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY.

FRONT BLAST SOUTHWARD LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
PROBABLY WILL NOT STOP THE FALL WITH THE END OF THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CYCLE...AND STEADY TO SLOW FALL THEIR WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY
THAT SHOULD BE A FEW FLURRIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS WELL AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE ICE FAVORING ZONE. ARCTIC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY...BUT WITHOUT SNOW COVER SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF MODIFYING SLIGHTLY. MONDAY MORNING WILL STILL FIND LIGHTER
WINDS AND PROSPECT FOR MORE CLEAR SKIES...AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS
DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM INITIALIZATION GRIDS. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A BRIEF STAY ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BAROCLINICITY BEFORE NEXT TIME BOUNDARY
WAFFLES SOUTHWARD.

AGREEMENT HARDER AND HARDER TO COME BY IN LONGEST RANGES OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINGING WAVE INTO
CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE AREA ON LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ECMWF LOOKING TO ACCOMPLISH A SIMILAR TASK WITH
SYSTEM JUST A DAY OR SO LATER. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN LONGEST
RANGES...HAVE NOT ALTERED THE LOWER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD...AND MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH SIGNAL OF STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH CONCERNING IN TERMS OF
LOCKING IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DESPITE SOME WARMING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ANTICIPATE MVFR STRATUS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES...THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE
TONIGHT PICKING UP SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM



000
FXUS63 KFSD 270354
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
954 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE
OVER SW MN AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH 06Z. BUT
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY ALONG AND WEST OF I29. AT THE SAME TIME
WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN NO LOCATION WILL HAVE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. IN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING AND COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RISE TOWARD DAWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE. EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WINDS WILL STAY UP LONGER.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN FAIRLY COLD AIR AS IT IS
ALREADY NEAR ZERO IN EASTERN ND. SO EXPECT THAT ADVECTION ITSELF
WILL GET LOWS NEAR ZERO. THEN AS WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THAT LOWS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF I90 AND EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER.

THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WARMER AIR WILL WORK NORTH
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE LIFT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
NOT SATURATED EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
SATURATION FROM ABOVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER EAST
CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD ALLOWS HIGHS TO REACH THE MID
30S...WHILE COLD AIR OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA KEEPS HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. IN FACT...MANY AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS IN THE EVENING AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ALLOW FOR RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION WILL RIPPLE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND ENHANCE LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE FOR
A SHORT TIME DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHIFT EAST WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT BAND. BEHIND THIS...THE MOIST LAYER SEEN TO BECOME QUITE
SHALLOW...1000 TO 2000 FEET OF DEPTH AS DEEPER SATURATION PULLS
EAST...WITH DECENT SHEAR AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. THIS WOULD
BRING SOME CONCERN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE MAINLY
NEAR/EAST OF I 29 LATER AT NIGHT. GFS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
HOLDING ON TO THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE BY THE NAM...WILL DESERVE SOME CLOSE MONITORING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE...
AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO HAVE A MARKEDLY NON
DIURNAL TREND MID AND EAST...WITH QUICKER DROP WEST AND MORE
STEADY LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND WINDS
BALANCE CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY WILL FIND A GREAT MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH/EAST...NORTH OF A SURFACE QUASI-WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXIST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD AID IN
DECREASING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS BACKING WINDS MORE TOWARD
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME WHICH COULD PULL THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WESTWARD. INVERSION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WILL LIMIT ABILITY TO MIX OUT SUCH CLOUDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE DECREASE IN GRADIENT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH THE POOLING OF A GREAT DEAL OF SNOW MELT MOISTURE BENEATH
THE INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRIDAY NIGHT IS MUCH MORE RIPE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE TIME HAVE MENTIONED SOME FOG
CHANCE BY LATE EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WOULD BE A SLOW DISSIPATION ON SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY ADVECTION REQUIRED TO REMOVE GIVEN FORMIDABLE INVERSION.
HAVE SHADED QUITE A BIT WARMER ON LOWS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
CLOUDS/FOG...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S...IF NOT EVEN WARMER.

CONSENSUS ON ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW QUITE A BIT SLOWER FOR SATURDAY...
AS DRIVING JET TAKES ABOUT 6 HOURS LONGER TO MOVE THE ENTRANCE
REGION INTO POSITION ACROSS THE REGION. THE SLOWED FRONT LEAVES
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SET UP TO BE QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY
SO THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. EXPECT VERY LITTLE SNOW
COVER TO REMAIN BY SATURDAY MIDDAY. PATTERN IS ALMOST AN EXACT
LOW TO MID LEVEL MATCH FOR THE LOCAL EXTREME EVENT CLIMATOLOGY FOR
WARMEST MAXES. GIVEN RAW MODEL SOLUTIONS... TEMPERATURES AND EVEN
THE MOST SHALLOW MIXING WOULD HAVE SIOUX CITY RECORD HIGH OF 63
DEGREES NOT OUT OF REACH. WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT CHANGING SO
MUCH OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH...TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY.

FRONT BLAST SOUTHWARD LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
PROBABLY WILL NOT STOP THE FALL WITH THE END OF THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CYCLE...AND STEADY TO SLOW FALL THEIR WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY
THAT SHOULD BE A FEW FLURRIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS WELL AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE ICE FAVORING ZONE. ARCTIC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY...BUT WITHOUT SNOW COVER SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF MODIFYING SLIGHTLY. MONDAY MORNING WILL STILL FIND LIGHTER
WINDS AND PROSPECT FOR MORE CLEAR SKIES...AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS
DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM INITIALIZATION GRIDS. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A BRIEF STAY ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BAROCLINICITY BEFORE NEXT TIME BOUNDARY
WAFFLES SOUTHWARD.

AGREEMENT HARDER AND HARDER TO COME BY IN LONGEST RANGES OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINGING WAVE INTO
CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE AREA ON LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ECMWF LOOKING TO ACCOMPLISH A SIMILAR TASK WITH
SYSTEM JUST A DAY OR SO LATER. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN LONGEST
RANGES...HAVE NOT ALTERED THE LOWER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD...AND MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH SIGNAL OF STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH CONCERNING IN TERMS OF
LOCKING IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DESPITE SOME WARMING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ANTICIPATE MVFR STRATUS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES...THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE
TONIGHT PICKING UP SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 270354
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
954 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE
OVER SW MN AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH 06Z. BUT
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY ALONG AND WEST OF I29. AT THE SAME TIME
WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN NO LOCATION WILL HAVE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. IN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING AND COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RISE TOWARD DAWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE. EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WINDS WILL STAY UP LONGER.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN FAIRLY COLD AIR AS IT IS
ALREADY NEAR ZERO IN EASTERN ND. SO EXPECT THAT ADVECTION ITSELF
WILL GET LOWS NEAR ZERO. THEN AS WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THAT LOWS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF I90 AND EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER.

THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WARMER AIR WILL WORK NORTH
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE LIFT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
NOT SATURATED EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
SATURATION FROM ABOVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER EAST
CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD ALLOWS HIGHS TO REACH THE MID
30S...WHILE COLD AIR OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA KEEPS HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. IN FACT...MANY AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS IN THE EVENING AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ALLOW FOR RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION WILL RIPPLE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND ENHANCE LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE FOR
A SHORT TIME DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHIFT EAST WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT BAND. BEHIND THIS...THE MOIST LAYER SEEN TO BECOME QUITE
SHALLOW...1000 TO 2000 FEET OF DEPTH AS DEEPER SATURATION PULLS
EAST...WITH DECENT SHEAR AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. THIS WOULD
BRING SOME CONCERN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE MAINLY
NEAR/EAST OF I 29 LATER AT NIGHT. GFS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
HOLDING ON TO THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE BY THE NAM...WILL DESERVE SOME CLOSE MONITORING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE...
AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO HAVE A MARKEDLY NON
DIURNAL TREND MID AND EAST...WITH QUICKER DROP WEST AND MORE
STEADY LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND WINDS
BALANCE CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY WILL FIND A GREAT MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH/EAST...NORTH OF A SURFACE QUASI-WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXIST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD AID IN
DECREASING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS BACKING WINDS MORE TOWARD
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME WHICH COULD PULL THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WESTWARD. INVERSION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WILL LIMIT ABILITY TO MIX OUT SUCH CLOUDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE DECREASE IN GRADIENT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH THE POOLING OF A GREAT DEAL OF SNOW MELT MOISTURE BENEATH
THE INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRIDAY NIGHT IS MUCH MORE RIPE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE TIME HAVE MENTIONED SOME FOG
CHANCE BY LATE EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WOULD BE A SLOW DISSIPATION ON SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY ADVECTION REQUIRED TO REMOVE GIVEN FORMIDABLE INVERSION.
HAVE SHADED QUITE A BIT WARMER ON LOWS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
CLOUDS/FOG...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S...IF NOT EVEN WARMER.

CONSENSUS ON ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW QUITE A BIT SLOWER FOR SATURDAY...
AS DRIVING JET TAKES ABOUT 6 HOURS LONGER TO MOVE THE ENTRANCE
REGION INTO POSITION ACROSS THE REGION. THE SLOWED FRONT LEAVES
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SET UP TO BE QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY
SO THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. EXPECT VERY LITTLE SNOW
COVER TO REMAIN BY SATURDAY MIDDAY. PATTERN IS ALMOST AN EXACT
LOW TO MID LEVEL MATCH FOR THE LOCAL EXTREME EVENT CLIMATOLOGY FOR
WARMEST MAXES. GIVEN RAW MODEL SOLUTIONS... TEMPERATURES AND EVEN
THE MOST SHALLOW MIXING WOULD HAVE SIOUX CITY RECORD HIGH OF 63
DEGREES NOT OUT OF REACH. WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT CHANGING SO
MUCH OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH...TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY.

FRONT BLAST SOUTHWARD LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
PROBABLY WILL NOT STOP THE FALL WITH THE END OF THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CYCLE...AND STEADY TO SLOW FALL THEIR WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY
THAT SHOULD BE A FEW FLURRIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS WELL AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE ICE FAVORING ZONE. ARCTIC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY...BUT WITHOUT SNOW COVER SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF MODIFYING SLIGHTLY. MONDAY MORNING WILL STILL FIND LIGHTER
WINDS AND PROSPECT FOR MORE CLEAR SKIES...AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS
DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM INITIALIZATION GRIDS. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A BRIEF STAY ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BAROCLINICITY BEFORE NEXT TIME BOUNDARY
WAFFLES SOUTHWARD.

AGREEMENT HARDER AND HARDER TO COME BY IN LONGEST RANGES OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINGING WAVE INTO
CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE AREA ON LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ECMWF LOOKING TO ACCOMPLISH A SIMILAR TASK WITH
SYSTEM JUST A DAY OR SO LATER. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN LONGEST
RANGES...HAVE NOT ALTERED THE LOWER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD...AND MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH SIGNAL OF STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH CONCERNING IN TERMS OF
LOCKING IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DESPITE SOME WARMING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ANTICIPATE MVFR STRATUS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES...THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE
TONIGHT PICKING UP SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KABR 262334 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
534 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE SD/ND/MN
BORDER BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND
FRESH SNOW WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS BELOW ZERO BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER
WEST HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER AND LESS SNOWFALL SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. RETURN FLOW WINDS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL BE WARMER. IN
FACT...THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA TO NEAR 35 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT SNOWFALL...SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. DUE TO THE STRONG PUSH OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND MODEL
DOMINANT PTYPE PROGS ALL SUPPORTS THIS OCCURRENCE. THEREFORE WENT
AHEAD AND THREW THE WINTRY MIX INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...A VERY BRIEF WINDOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRENCE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY STEADY...OR EVEN RISING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATIONS OF SURFACE FEATURES. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH OUR
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR/PACIFIC AIR DOMINATING THE REGION WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT WEST RIDING ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING
ARCTIC BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA. THE SNOW COVER AND WINDS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH DAYS. WE MAY ALSO BE LOOKING
AT SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WITH THE SNOW MELT OCCURRING
AND HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION PROBABLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN BEHIND IT. THE ARCTIC AIR
AND COLD BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FOR THIS TIME...LOWS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AGAIN RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK CLOSE
TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...THE ENTIRE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE THE KPIR/KMBG TERMINALS WHILE
THE KATY/KABR TERMINALS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TNT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 262334 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
534 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE SD/ND/MN
BORDER BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND
FRESH SNOW WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS BELOW ZERO BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER
WEST HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER AND LESS SNOWFALL SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. RETURN FLOW WINDS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL BE WARMER. IN
FACT...THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA TO NEAR 35 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT SNOWFALL...SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. DUE TO THE STRONG PUSH OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND MODEL
DOMINANT PTYPE PROGS ALL SUPPORTS THIS OCCURRENCE. THEREFORE WENT
AHEAD AND THREW THE WINTRY MIX INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...A VERY BRIEF WINDOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRENCE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY STEADY...OR EVEN RISING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATIONS OF SURFACE FEATURES. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH OUR
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR/PACIFIC AIR DOMINATING THE REGION WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT WEST RIDING ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING
ARCTIC BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA. THE SNOW COVER AND WINDS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH DAYS. WE MAY ALSO BE LOOKING
AT SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WITH THE SNOW MELT OCCURRING
AND HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION PROBABLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN BEHIND IT. THE ARCTIC AIR
AND COLD BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FOR THIS TIME...LOWS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AGAIN RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK CLOSE
TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...THE ENTIRE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE THE KPIR/KMBG TERMINALS WHILE
THE KATY/KABR TERMINALS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TNT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 262305
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
505 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE
OVER SW MN AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH 06Z. BUT
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY ALONG AND WEST OF I29. AT THE SAME TIME
WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN NO LOCATION WILL HAVE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. IN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING AND COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RISE TOWARD DAWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE. EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WINDS WILL STAY UP LONGER.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN FAIRLY COLD AIR AS IT IS
ALREADY NEAR ZERO IN EASTERN ND. SO EXPECT THAT ADVECTION ITSELF
WILL GET LOWS NEAR ZERO. THEN AS WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THAT LOWS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF I90 AND EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER.

THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WARMER AIR WILL WORK NORTH
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE LIFT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
NOT SATURATED EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
SATURATION FROM ABOVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER EAST
CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD ALLOWS HIGHS TO REACH THE MID
30S...WHILE COLD AIR OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA KEEPS HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. IN FACT...MANY AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS IN THE EVENING AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ALLOW FOR RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION WILL RIPPLE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND ENHANCE LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE FOR
A SHORT TIME DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHIFT EAST WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT BAND. BEHIND THIS...THE MOIST LAYER SEEN TO BECOME QUITE
SHALLOW...1000 TO 2000 FEET OF DEPTH AS DEEPER SATURATION PULLS
EAST...WITH DECENT SHEAR AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. THIS WOULD
BRING SOME CONCERN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE MAINLY
NEAR/EAST OF I 29 LATER AT NIGHT. GFS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
HOLDING ON TO THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE BY THE NAM...WILL DESERVE SOME CLOSE MONITORING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE...
AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO HAVE A MARKEDLY NON
DIURNAL TREND MID AND EAST...WITH QUICKER DROP WEST AND MORE
STEADY LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND WINDS
BALANCE CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY WILL FIND A GREAT MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH/EAST...NORTH OF A SURFACE QUASI-WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXIST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD AID IN
DECREASING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS BACKING WINDS MORE TOWARD
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME WHICH COULD PULL THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WESTWARD. INVERSION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WILL LIMIT ABILITY TO MIX OUT SUCH CLOUDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE DECREASE IN GRADIENT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH THE POOLING OF A GREAT DEAL OF SNOW MELT MOISTURE BENEATH
THE INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRIDAY NIGHT IS MUCH MORE RIPE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE TIME HAVE MENTIONED SOME FOG
CHANCE BY LATE EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WOULD BE A SLOW DISSIPATION ON SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY ADVECTION REQUIRED TO REMOVE GIVEN FORMIDABLE INVERSION.
HAVE SHADED QUITE A BIT WARMER ON LOWS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
CLOUDS/FOG...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S...IF NOT EVEN WARMER.

CONSENSUS ON ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW QUITE A BIT SLOWER FOR SATURDAY...
AS DRIVING JET TAKES ABOUT 6 HOURS LONGER TO MOVE THE ENTRANCE
REGION INTO POSITION ACROSS THE REGION. THE SLOWED FRONT LEAVES
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SET UP TO BE QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY
SO THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. EXPECT VERY LITTLE SNOW
COVER TO REMAIN BY SATURDAY MIDDAY. PATTERN IS ALMOST AN EXACT
LOW TO MID LEVEL MATCH FOR THE LOCAL EXTREME EVENT CLIMATOLOGY FOR
WARMEST MAXES. GIVEN RAW MODEL SOLUTIONS... TEMPERATURES AND EVEN
THE MOST SHALLOW MIXING WOULD HAVE SIOUX CITY RECORD HIGH OF 63
DEGREES NOT OUT OF REACH. WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT CHANGING SO
MUCH OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH...TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY.

FRONT BLAST SOUTHWARD LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
PROBABLY WILL NOT STOP THE FALL WITH THE END OF THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CYCLE...AND STEADY TO SLOW FALL THEIR WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY
THAT SHOULD BE A FEW FLURRIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS WELL AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE ICE FAVORING ZONE. ARCTIC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY...BUT WITHOUT SNOW COVER SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF MODIFYING SLIGHTLY. MONDAY MORNING WILL STILL FIND LIGHTER
WINDS AND PROSPECT FOR MORE CLEAR SKIES...AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS
DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM INITIALIZATION GRIDS. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A BRIEF STAY ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BAROCLINICITY BEFORE NEXT TIME BOUNDARY
WAFFLES SOUTHWARD.

AGREEMENT HARDER AND HARDER TO COME BY IN LONGEST RANGES OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINGING WAVE INTO
CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE AREA ON LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ECMWF LOOKING TO ACCOMPLISH A SIMILAR TASK WITH
SYSTEM JUST A DAY OR SO LATER. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN LONGEST
RANGES...HAVE NOT ALTERED THE LOWER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD...AND MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH SIGNAL OF STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH CONCERNING IN TERMS OF
LOCKING IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DESPITE SOME WARMING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 503 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KUNR 262245
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
345 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 153 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A TROF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE FAR SW CONUS. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH 150KT
JET ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SKIES ARE CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH WEAK
LOW/TROF ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT...NW-SE ORIENTED JET/BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE PRECIPITATION SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AS 500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND LOW TO
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES
AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT FZRA/FZDZ OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY AND
NORTHWESTERN SD LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS...TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING.

ON THURSDAY...WESTERN RIDGE AND WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS THE COLDER AIR RETREATS TO THE EAST
AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S TO MID
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 153 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH.
WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WILL BRING TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE NEXT TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY...BRINGING
A SURGE OF COLD AIR TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...NOW
HAVING IT PASS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS STILL
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS SOME MORE TO
ACCOUNT FOR GFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE A 30-40 DEGREE SPREAD FOR HIGH TEMPS
SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY
SUNDAY...BUT MINIMAL QPF IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY LOOKS COLD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS. MODELS SUGGEST
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

-SN ALONG WITH WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE EVENING. AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT LATER TONIGHT...SOME
-FZRA MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN SD. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BECOME VFR ACRS NERN WY AFT MIDNIGHT AS WINDS TURN SW...BUT THE
WDSPRD LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACRS WRN SD INTO AT LEAST THU
MRNG.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 262245
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
345 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 153 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A TROF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE FAR SW CONUS. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH 150KT
JET ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SKIES ARE CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH WEAK
LOW/TROF ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT...NW-SE ORIENTED JET/BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE PRECIPITATION SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AS 500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND LOW TO
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES
AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT FZRA/FZDZ OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY AND
NORTHWESTERN SD LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS...TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING.

ON THURSDAY...WESTERN RIDGE AND WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS THE COLDER AIR RETREATS TO THE EAST
AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S TO MID
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 153 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH.
WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WILL BRING TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE NEXT TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY...BRINGING
A SURGE OF COLD AIR TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...NOW
HAVING IT PASS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS STILL
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS SOME MORE TO
ACCOUNT FOR GFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE A 30-40 DEGREE SPREAD FOR HIGH TEMPS
SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY
SUNDAY...BUT MINIMAL QPF IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY LOOKS COLD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS. MODELS SUGGEST
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

-SN ALONG WITH WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE EVENING. AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT LATER TONIGHT...SOME
-FZRA MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN SD. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BECOME VFR ACRS NERN WY AFT MIDNIGHT AS WINDS TURN SW...BUT THE
WDSPRD LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACRS WRN SD INTO AT LEAST THU
MRNG.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 262245
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
345 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 153 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A TROF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE FAR SW CONUS. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH 150KT
JET ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SKIES ARE CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH WEAK
LOW/TROF ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT...NW-SE ORIENTED JET/BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE PRECIPITATION SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AS 500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND LOW TO
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES
AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT FZRA/FZDZ OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY AND
NORTHWESTERN SD LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS...TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING.

ON THURSDAY...WESTERN RIDGE AND WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS THE COLDER AIR RETREATS TO THE EAST
AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S TO MID
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 153 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH.
WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WILL BRING TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE NEXT TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY...BRINGING
A SURGE OF COLD AIR TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...NOW
HAVING IT PASS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS STILL
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS SOME MORE TO
ACCOUNT FOR GFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE A 30-40 DEGREE SPREAD FOR HIGH TEMPS
SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY
SUNDAY...BUT MINIMAL QPF IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY LOOKS COLD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS. MODELS SUGGEST
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

-SN ALONG WITH WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE EVENING. AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT LATER TONIGHT...SOME
-FZRA MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN SD. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BECOME VFR ACRS NERN WY AFT MIDNIGHT AS WINDS TURN SW...BUT THE
WDSPRD LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACRS WRN SD INTO AT LEAST THU
MRNG.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 262245
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
345 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 153 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A TROF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE FAR SW CONUS. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH 150KT
JET ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SKIES ARE CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH WEAK
LOW/TROF ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT...NW-SE ORIENTED JET/BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE PRECIPITATION SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AS 500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND LOW TO
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES
AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT FZRA/FZDZ OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY AND
NORTHWESTERN SD LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS...TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING.

ON THURSDAY...WESTERN RIDGE AND WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS THE COLDER AIR RETREATS TO THE EAST
AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S TO MID
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 153 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH.
WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WILL BRING TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE NEXT TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY...BRINGING
A SURGE OF COLD AIR TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...NOW
HAVING IT PASS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS STILL
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS SOME MORE TO
ACCOUNT FOR GFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE A 30-40 DEGREE SPREAD FOR HIGH TEMPS
SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY
SUNDAY...BUT MINIMAL QPF IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY LOOKS COLD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS. MODELS SUGGEST
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

-SN ALONG WITH WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE EVENING. AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT LATER TONIGHT...SOME
-FZRA MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN SD. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BECOME VFR ACRS NERN WY AFT MIDNIGHT AS WINDS TURN SW...BUT THE
WDSPRD LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACRS WRN SD INTO AT LEAST THU
MRNG.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KFSD 262156
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE
OVER SW MN AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH 06Z. BUT
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY ALONG AND WEST OF I29. AT THE SAME TIME
WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN NO LOCATION WILL HAVE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. IN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING AND COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RISE TOWARD DAWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE. EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WINDS WILL STAY UP LONGER.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN FAIRLY COLD AIR AS IT IS
ALREADY NEAR ZERO IN EASTERN ND. SO EXPECT THAT ADVECTION ITSELF
WILL GET LOWS NEAR ZERO. THEN AS WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THAT LOWS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF I90 AND EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER.

THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WARMER AIR WILL WORK NORTH
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE LIFT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
NOT SATURATED EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
SATURATION FROM ABOVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER EAST
CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD ALLOWS HIGHS TO REACH THE MID
30S...WHILE COLD AIR OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA KEEPS HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. IN FACT...MANY AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS IN THE EVENING AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ALLOW FOR RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION WILL RIPPLE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND ENHANCE LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE FOR
A SHORT TIME DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHIFT EAST WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT BAND. BEHIND THIS...THE MOIST LAYER SEEN TO BECOME QUITE
SHALLOW...1000 TO 2000 FEET OF DEPTH AS DEEPER SATURATION PULLS
EAST...WITH DECENT SHEAR AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. THIS WOULD
BRING SOME CONCERN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE MAINLY
NEAR/EAST OF I 29 LATER AT NIGHT. GFS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
HOLDING ON TO THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE BY THE NAM...WILL DESERVE SOME CLOSE MONITORING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE...
AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO HAVE A MARKEDLY NON
DIURNAL TREND MID AND EAST...WITH QUICKER DROP WEST AND MORE
STEADY LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND WINDS
BALANCE CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY WILL FIND A GREAT MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH/EAST...NORTH OF A SURFACE QUASI-WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXIST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD AID IN
DECREASING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS BACKING WINDS MORE TOWARD
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME WHICH COULD PULL THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WESTWARD. INVERSION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WILL LIMIT ABILITY TO MIX OUT SUCH CLOUDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE DECREASE IN GRADIENT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH THE POOLING OF A GREAT DEAL OF SNOW MELT MOISTURE BENEATH
THE INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRIDAY NIGHT IS MUCH MORE RIPE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE TIME HAVE MENTIONED SOME FOG
CHANCE BY LATE EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WOULD BE A SLOW DISSIPATION ON SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY ADVECTION REQUIRED TO REMOVE GIVEN FORMIDABLE INVERSION.
HAVE SHADED QUITE A BIT WARMER ON LOWS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
CLOUDS/FOG...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S...IF NOT EVEN WARMER.

CONSENSUS ON ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW QUITE A BIT SLOWER FOR SATURDAY...
AS DRIVING JET TAKES ABOUT 6 HOURS LONGER TO MOVE THE ENTRANCE
REGION INTO POSITION ACROSS THE REGION. THE SLOWED FRONT LEAVES
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SET UP TO BE QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY
SO THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. EXPECT VERY LITTLE SNOW
COVER TO REMAIN BY SATURDAY MIDDAY. PATTERN IS ALMOST AN EXACT
LOW TO MID LEVEL MATCH FOR THE LOCAL EXTREME EVENT CLIMATOLOGY FOR
WARMEST MAXES. GIVEN RAW MODEL SOLUTIONS... TEMPERATURES AND EVEN
THE MOST SHALLOW MIXING WOULD HAVE SIOUX CITY RECORD HIGH OF 63
DEGREES NOT OUT OF REACH. WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT CHANGING SO
MUCH OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH...TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY.

FRONT BLAST SOUTHWARD LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
PROBABLY WILL NOT STOP THE FALL WITH THE END OF THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CYCLE...AND STEADY TO SLOW FALL THEIR WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY
THAT SHOULD BE A FEW FLURRIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS WELL AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE ICE FAVORING ZONE. ARCTIC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY...BUT WITHOUT SNOW COVER SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF MODIFYING SLIGHTLY. MONDAY MORNING WILL STILL FIND LIGHTER
WINDS AND PROSPECT FOR MORE CLEAR SKIES...AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS
DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM INITIALIZATION GRIDS. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A BRIEF STAY ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BAROCLINICITY BEFORE NEXT TIME BOUNDARY
WAFFLES SOUTHWARD.

AGREEMENT HARDER AND HARDER TO COME BY IN LONGEST RANGES OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINGING WAVE INTO
CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE AREA ON LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ECMWF LOOKING TO ACCOMPLISH A SIMILAR TASK WITH
SYSTEM JUST A DAY OR SO LATER. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN LONGEST
RANGES...HAVE NOT ALTERED THE LOWER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD...AND MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH SIGNAL OF STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH CONCERNING IN TERMS OF
LOCKING IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DESPITE SOME WARMING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW HAS ENDED FOR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO PORTIONS
OF SW MN AND NW IA. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT KSUX THOUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. OTHERWISE...AFTER
CLOUDS EXIT KSUX THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
18Z THURSDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER




000
FXUS63 KFSD 262156
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE
OVER SW MN AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH 06Z. BUT
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY ALONG AND WEST OF I29. AT THE SAME TIME
WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN NO LOCATION WILL HAVE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. IN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING AND COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RISE TOWARD DAWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE. EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WINDS WILL STAY UP LONGER.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN FAIRLY COLD AIR AS IT IS
ALREADY NEAR ZERO IN EASTERN ND. SO EXPECT THAT ADVECTION ITSELF
WILL GET LOWS NEAR ZERO. THEN AS WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THAT LOWS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF I90 AND EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER.

THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WARMER AIR WILL WORK NORTH
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE LIFT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
NOT SATURATED EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
SATURATION FROM ABOVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER EAST
CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD ALLOWS HIGHS TO REACH THE MID
30S...WHILE COLD AIR OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA KEEPS HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. IN FACT...MANY AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS IN THE EVENING AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ALLOW FOR RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION WILL RIPPLE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND ENHANCE LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE FOR
A SHORT TIME DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHIFT EAST WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT BAND. BEHIND THIS...THE MOIST LAYER SEEN TO BECOME QUITE
SHALLOW...1000 TO 2000 FEET OF DEPTH AS DEEPER SATURATION PULLS
EAST...WITH DECENT SHEAR AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. THIS WOULD
BRING SOME CONCERN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE MAINLY
NEAR/EAST OF I 29 LATER AT NIGHT. GFS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
HOLDING ON TO THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE BY THE NAM...WILL DESERVE SOME CLOSE MONITORING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE...
AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO HAVE A MARKEDLY NON
DIURNAL TREND MID AND EAST...WITH QUICKER DROP WEST AND MORE
STEADY LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND WINDS
BALANCE CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY WILL FIND A GREAT MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH/EAST...NORTH OF A SURFACE QUASI-WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXIST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD AID IN
DECREASING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS BACKING WINDS MORE TOWARD
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME WHICH COULD PULL THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WESTWARD. INVERSION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WILL LIMIT ABILITY TO MIX OUT SUCH CLOUDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE DECREASE IN GRADIENT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH THE POOLING OF A GREAT DEAL OF SNOW MELT MOISTURE BENEATH
THE INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRIDAY NIGHT IS MUCH MORE RIPE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE TIME HAVE MENTIONED SOME FOG
CHANCE BY LATE EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WOULD BE A SLOW DISSIPATION ON SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY ADVECTION REQUIRED TO REMOVE GIVEN FORMIDABLE INVERSION.
HAVE SHADED QUITE A BIT WARMER ON LOWS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
CLOUDS/FOG...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S...IF NOT EVEN WARMER.

CONSENSUS ON ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW QUITE A BIT SLOWER FOR SATURDAY...
AS DRIVING JET TAKES ABOUT 6 HOURS LONGER TO MOVE THE ENTRANCE
REGION INTO POSITION ACROSS THE REGION. THE SLOWED FRONT LEAVES
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SET UP TO BE QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY
SO THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. EXPECT VERY LITTLE SNOW
COVER TO REMAIN BY SATURDAY MIDDAY. PATTERN IS ALMOST AN EXACT
LOW TO MID LEVEL MATCH FOR THE LOCAL EXTREME EVENT CLIMATOLOGY FOR
WARMEST MAXES. GIVEN RAW MODEL SOLUTIONS... TEMPERATURES AND EVEN
THE MOST SHALLOW MIXING WOULD HAVE SIOUX CITY RECORD HIGH OF 63
DEGREES NOT OUT OF REACH. WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT CHANGING SO
MUCH OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH...TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY.

FRONT BLAST SOUTHWARD LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
PROBABLY WILL NOT STOP THE FALL WITH THE END OF THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CYCLE...AND STEADY TO SLOW FALL THEIR WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY
THAT SHOULD BE A FEW FLURRIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS WELL AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE ICE FAVORING ZONE. ARCTIC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY...BUT WITHOUT SNOW COVER SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF MODIFYING SLIGHTLY. MONDAY MORNING WILL STILL FIND LIGHTER
WINDS AND PROSPECT FOR MORE CLEAR SKIES...AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS
DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM INITIALIZATION GRIDS. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A BRIEF STAY ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BAROCLINICITY BEFORE NEXT TIME BOUNDARY
WAFFLES SOUTHWARD.

AGREEMENT HARDER AND HARDER TO COME BY IN LONGEST RANGES OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINGING WAVE INTO
CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE AREA ON LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ECMWF LOOKING TO ACCOMPLISH A SIMILAR TASK WITH
SYSTEM JUST A DAY OR SO LATER. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN LONGEST
RANGES...HAVE NOT ALTERED THE LOWER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD...AND MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH SIGNAL OF STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH CONCERNING IN TERMS OF
LOCKING IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DESPITE SOME WARMING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW HAS ENDED FOR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO PORTIONS
OF SW MN AND NW IA. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT KSUX THOUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. OTHERWISE...AFTER
CLOUDS EXIT KSUX THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
18Z THURSDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER




000
FXUS63 KFSD 262156
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE
OVER SW MN AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH 06Z. BUT
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY ALONG AND WEST OF I29. AT THE SAME TIME
WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN NO LOCATION WILL HAVE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. IN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING AND COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RISE TOWARD DAWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE. EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WINDS WILL STAY UP LONGER.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN FAIRLY COLD AIR AS IT IS
ALREADY NEAR ZERO IN EASTERN ND. SO EXPECT THAT ADVECTION ITSELF
WILL GET LOWS NEAR ZERO. THEN AS WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THAT LOWS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF I90 AND EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER.

THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WARMER AIR WILL WORK NORTH
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE LIFT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
NOT SATURATED EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
SATURATION FROM ABOVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER EAST
CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD ALLOWS HIGHS TO REACH THE MID
30S...WHILE COLD AIR OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA KEEPS HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. IN FACT...MANY AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS IN THE EVENING AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ALLOW FOR RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION WILL RIPPLE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND ENHANCE LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE FOR
A SHORT TIME DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHIFT EAST WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT BAND. BEHIND THIS...THE MOIST LAYER SEEN TO BECOME QUITE
SHALLOW...1000 TO 2000 FEET OF DEPTH AS DEEPER SATURATION PULLS
EAST...WITH DECENT SHEAR AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. THIS WOULD
BRING SOME CONCERN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE MAINLY
NEAR/EAST OF I 29 LATER AT NIGHT. GFS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
HOLDING ON TO THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE BY THE NAM...WILL DESERVE SOME CLOSE MONITORING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE...
AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO HAVE A MARKEDLY NON
DIURNAL TREND MID AND EAST...WITH QUICKER DROP WEST AND MORE
STEADY LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND WINDS
BALANCE CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY WILL FIND A GREAT MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH/EAST...NORTH OF A SURFACE QUASI-WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXIST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD AID IN
DECREASING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS BACKING WINDS MORE TOWARD
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME WHICH COULD PULL THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WESTWARD. INVERSION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WILL LIMIT ABILITY TO MIX OUT SUCH CLOUDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE DECREASE IN GRADIENT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH THE POOLING OF A GREAT DEAL OF SNOW MELT MOISTURE BENEATH
THE INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRIDAY NIGHT IS MUCH MORE RIPE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE TIME HAVE MENTIONED SOME FOG
CHANCE BY LATE EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WOULD BE A SLOW DISSIPATION ON SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY ADVECTION REQUIRED TO REMOVE GIVEN FORMIDABLE INVERSION.
HAVE SHADED QUITE A BIT WARMER ON LOWS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
CLOUDS/FOG...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S...IF NOT EVEN WARMER.

CONSENSUS ON ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW QUITE A BIT SLOWER FOR SATURDAY...
AS DRIVING JET TAKES ABOUT 6 HOURS LONGER TO MOVE THE ENTRANCE
REGION INTO POSITION ACROSS THE REGION. THE SLOWED FRONT LEAVES
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SET UP TO BE QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY
SO THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. EXPECT VERY LITTLE SNOW
COVER TO REMAIN BY SATURDAY MIDDAY. PATTERN IS ALMOST AN EXACT
LOW TO MID LEVEL MATCH FOR THE LOCAL EXTREME EVENT CLIMATOLOGY FOR
WARMEST MAXES. GIVEN RAW MODEL SOLUTIONS... TEMPERATURES AND EVEN
THE MOST SHALLOW MIXING WOULD HAVE SIOUX CITY RECORD HIGH OF 63
DEGREES NOT OUT OF REACH. WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT CHANGING SO
MUCH OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH...TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY.

FRONT BLAST SOUTHWARD LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
PROBABLY WILL NOT STOP THE FALL WITH THE END OF THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CYCLE...AND STEADY TO SLOW FALL THEIR WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY
THAT SHOULD BE A FEW FLURRIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS WELL AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE ICE FAVORING ZONE. ARCTIC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY...BUT WITHOUT SNOW COVER SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF MODIFYING SLIGHTLY. MONDAY MORNING WILL STILL FIND LIGHTER
WINDS AND PROSPECT FOR MORE CLEAR SKIES...AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS
DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM INITIALIZATION GRIDS. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A BRIEF STAY ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BAROCLINICITY BEFORE NEXT TIME BOUNDARY
WAFFLES SOUTHWARD.

AGREEMENT HARDER AND HARDER TO COME BY IN LONGEST RANGES OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINGING WAVE INTO
CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE AREA ON LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ECMWF LOOKING TO ACCOMPLISH A SIMILAR TASK WITH
SYSTEM JUST A DAY OR SO LATER. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN LONGEST
RANGES...HAVE NOT ALTERED THE LOWER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD...AND MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH SIGNAL OF STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH CONCERNING IN TERMS OF
LOCKING IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DESPITE SOME WARMING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW HAS ENDED FOR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO PORTIONS
OF SW MN AND NW IA. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT KSUX THOUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. OTHERWISE...AFTER
CLOUDS EXIT KSUX THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
18Z THURSDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER




000
FXUS63 KFSD 262156
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE
OVER SW MN AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH 06Z. BUT
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY ALONG AND WEST OF I29. AT THE SAME TIME
WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN NO LOCATION WILL HAVE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. IN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING AND COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RISE TOWARD DAWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE. EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WINDS WILL STAY UP LONGER.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN FAIRLY COLD AIR AS IT IS
ALREADY NEAR ZERO IN EASTERN ND. SO EXPECT THAT ADVECTION ITSELF
WILL GET LOWS NEAR ZERO. THEN AS WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THAT LOWS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF I90 AND EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER.

THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WARMER AIR WILL WORK NORTH
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE LIFT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
NOT SATURATED EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
SATURATION FROM ABOVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER EAST
CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD ALLOWS HIGHS TO REACH THE MID
30S...WHILE COLD AIR OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA KEEPS HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. IN FACT...MANY AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS IN THE EVENING AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ALLOW FOR RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION WILL RIPPLE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND ENHANCE LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE FOR
A SHORT TIME DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHIFT EAST WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT BAND. BEHIND THIS...THE MOIST LAYER SEEN TO BECOME QUITE
SHALLOW...1000 TO 2000 FEET OF DEPTH AS DEEPER SATURATION PULLS
EAST...WITH DECENT SHEAR AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. THIS WOULD
BRING SOME CONCERN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE MAINLY
NEAR/EAST OF I 29 LATER AT NIGHT. GFS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
HOLDING ON TO THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE BY THE NAM...WILL DESERVE SOME CLOSE MONITORING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE...
AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO HAVE A MARKEDLY NON
DIURNAL TREND MID AND EAST...WITH QUICKER DROP WEST AND MORE
STEADY LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND WINDS
BALANCE CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY WILL FIND A GREAT MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH/EAST...NORTH OF A SURFACE QUASI-WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXIST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD AID IN
DECREASING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS BACKING WINDS MORE TOWARD
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME WHICH COULD PULL THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WESTWARD. INVERSION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WILL LIMIT ABILITY TO MIX OUT SUCH CLOUDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE DECREASE IN GRADIENT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH THE POOLING OF A GREAT DEAL OF SNOW MELT MOISTURE BENEATH
THE INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRIDAY NIGHT IS MUCH MORE RIPE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE TIME HAVE MENTIONED SOME FOG
CHANCE BY LATE EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WOULD BE A SLOW DISSIPATION ON SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY ADVECTION REQUIRED TO REMOVE GIVEN FORMIDABLE INVERSION.
HAVE SHADED QUITE A BIT WARMER ON LOWS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
CLOUDS/FOG...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S...IF NOT EVEN WARMER.

CONSENSUS ON ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW QUITE A BIT SLOWER FOR SATURDAY...
AS DRIVING JET TAKES ABOUT 6 HOURS LONGER TO MOVE THE ENTRANCE
REGION INTO POSITION ACROSS THE REGION. THE SLOWED FRONT LEAVES
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SET UP TO BE QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY
SO THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. EXPECT VERY LITTLE SNOW
COVER TO REMAIN BY SATURDAY MIDDAY. PATTERN IS ALMOST AN EXACT
LOW TO MID LEVEL MATCH FOR THE LOCAL EXTREME EVENT CLIMATOLOGY FOR
WARMEST MAXES. GIVEN RAW MODEL SOLUTIONS... TEMPERATURES AND EVEN
THE MOST SHALLOW MIXING WOULD HAVE SIOUX CITY RECORD HIGH OF 63
DEGREES NOT OUT OF REACH. WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT CHANGING SO
MUCH OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH...TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY.

FRONT BLAST SOUTHWARD LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
PROBABLY WILL NOT STOP THE FALL WITH THE END OF THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CYCLE...AND STEADY TO SLOW FALL THEIR WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY
THAT SHOULD BE A FEW FLURRIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS WELL AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE ICE FAVORING ZONE. ARCTIC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY...BUT WITHOUT SNOW COVER SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF MODIFYING SLIGHTLY. MONDAY MORNING WILL STILL FIND LIGHTER
WINDS AND PROSPECT FOR MORE CLEAR SKIES...AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS
DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM INITIALIZATION GRIDS. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A BRIEF STAY ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BAROCLINICITY BEFORE NEXT TIME BOUNDARY
WAFFLES SOUTHWARD.

AGREEMENT HARDER AND HARDER TO COME BY IN LONGEST RANGES OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINGING WAVE INTO
CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE AREA ON LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ECMWF LOOKING TO ACCOMPLISH A SIMILAR TASK WITH
SYSTEM JUST A DAY OR SO LATER. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN LONGEST
RANGES...HAVE NOT ALTERED THE LOWER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD...AND MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH SIGNAL OF STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH CONCERNING IN TERMS OF
LOCKING IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DESPITE SOME WARMING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW HAS ENDED FOR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO PORTIONS
OF SW MN AND NW IA. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT KSUX THOUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. OTHERWISE...AFTER
CLOUDS EXIT KSUX THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
18Z THURSDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER




000
FXUS63 KFSD 262156
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE
OVER SW MN AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH 06Z. BUT
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY ALONG AND WEST OF I29. AT THE SAME TIME
WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN NO LOCATION WILL HAVE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. IN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING AND COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RISE TOWARD DAWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE. EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WINDS WILL STAY UP LONGER.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN FAIRLY COLD AIR AS IT IS
ALREADY NEAR ZERO IN EASTERN ND. SO EXPECT THAT ADVECTION ITSELF
WILL GET LOWS NEAR ZERO. THEN AS WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THAT LOWS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF I90 AND EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER.

THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WARMER AIR WILL WORK NORTH
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE LIFT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
NOT SATURATED EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
SATURATION FROM ABOVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER EAST
CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD ALLOWS HIGHS TO REACH THE MID
30S...WHILE COLD AIR OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA KEEPS HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. IN FACT...MANY AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS IN THE EVENING AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ALLOW FOR RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION WILL RIPPLE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND ENHANCE LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE FOR
A SHORT TIME DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHIFT EAST WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT BAND. BEHIND THIS...THE MOIST LAYER SEEN TO BECOME QUITE
SHALLOW...1000 TO 2000 FEET OF DEPTH AS DEEPER SATURATION PULLS
EAST...WITH DECENT SHEAR AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. THIS WOULD
BRING SOME CONCERN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE MAINLY
NEAR/EAST OF I 29 LATER AT NIGHT. GFS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
HOLDING ON TO THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE BY THE NAM...WILL DESERVE SOME CLOSE MONITORING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE...
AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO HAVE A MARKEDLY NON
DIURNAL TREND MID AND EAST...WITH QUICKER DROP WEST AND MORE
STEADY LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND WINDS
BALANCE CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY WILL FIND A GREAT MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH/EAST...NORTH OF A SURFACE QUASI-WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXIST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD AID IN
DECREASING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS BACKING WINDS MORE TOWARD
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME WHICH COULD PULL THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WESTWARD. INVERSION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WILL LIMIT ABILITY TO MIX OUT SUCH CLOUDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE DECREASE IN GRADIENT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH THE POOLING OF A GREAT DEAL OF SNOW MELT MOISTURE BENEATH
THE INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRIDAY NIGHT IS MUCH MORE RIPE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE TIME HAVE MENTIONED SOME FOG
CHANCE BY LATE EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WOULD BE A SLOW DISSIPATION ON SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY ADVECTION REQUIRED TO REMOVE GIVEN FORMIDABLE INVERSION.
HAVE SHADED QUITE A BIT WARMER ON LOWS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
CLOUDS/FOG...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S...IF NOT EVEN WARMER.

CONSENSUS ON ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW QUITE A BIT SLOWER FOR SATURDAY...
AS DRIVING JET TAKES ABOUT 6 HOURS LONGER TO MOVE THE ENTRANCE
REGION INTO POSITION ACROSS THE REGION. THE SLOWED FRONT LEAVES
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SET UP TO BE QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY
SO THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. EXPECT VERY LITTLE SNOW
COVER TO REMAIN BY SATURDAY MIDDAY. PATTERN IS ALMOST AN EXACT
LOW TO MID LEVEL MATCH FOR THE LOCAL EXTREME EVENT CLIMATOLOGY FOR
WARMEST MAXES. GIVEN RAW MODEL SOLUTIONS... TEMPERATURES AND EVEN
THE MOST SHALLOW MIXING WOULD HAVE SIOUX CITY RECORD HIGH OF 63
DEGREES NOT OUT OF REACH. WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT CHANGING SO
MUCH OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH...TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY.

FRONT BLAST SOUTHWARD LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
PROBABLY WILL NOT STOP THE FALL WITH THE END OF THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CYCLE...AND STEADY TO SLOW FALL THEIR WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY
THAT SHOULD BE A FEW FLURRIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS WELL AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE ICE FAVORING ZONE. ARCTIC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY...BUT WITHOUT SNOW COVER SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF MODIFYING SLIGHTLY. MONDAY MORNING WILL STILL FIND LIGHTER
WINDS AND PROSPECT FOR MORE CLEAR SKIES...AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS
DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM INITIALIZATION GRIDS. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A BRIEF STAY ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BAROCLINICITY BEFORE NEXT TIME BOUNDARY
WAFFLES SOUTHWARD.

AGREEMENT HARDER AND HARDER TO COME BY IN LONGEST RANGES OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINGING WAVE INTO
CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE AREA ON LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ECMWF LOOKING TO ACCOMPLISH A SIMILAR TASK WITH
SYSTEM JUST A DAY OR SO LATER. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN LONGEST
RANGES...HAVE NOT ALTERED THE LOWER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD...AND MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH SIGNAL OF STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH CONCERNING IN TERMS OF
LOCKING IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DESPITE SOME WARMING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW HAS ENDED FOR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO PORTIONS
OF SW MN AND NW IA. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT KSUX THOUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. OTHERWISE...AFTER
CLOUDS EXIT KSUX THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
18Z THURSDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER




000
FXUS63 KFSD 262156
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE
OVER SW MN AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH 06Z. BUT
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY ALONG AND WEST OF I29. AT THE SAME TIME
WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN NO LOCATION WILL HAVE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. IN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING AND COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RISE TOWARD DAWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE. EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WINDS WILL STAY UP LONGER.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN FAIRLY COLD AIR AS IT IS
ALREADY NEAR ZERO IN EASTERN ND. SO EXPECT THAT ADVECTION ITSELF
WILL GET LOWS NEAR ZERO. THEN AS WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THAT LOWS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF I90 AND EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER.

THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WARMER AIR WILL WORK NORTH
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE LIFT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
NOT SATURATED EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
SATURATION FROM ABOVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER EAST
CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD ALLOWS HIGHS TO REACH THE MID
30S...WHILE COLD AIR OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA KEEPS HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. IN FACT...MANY AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS IN THE EVENING AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ALLOW FOR RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION WILL RIPPLE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND ENHANCE LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE FOR
A SHORT TIME DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHIFT EAST WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT BAND. BEHIND THIS...THE MOIST LAYER SEEN TO BECOME QUITE
SHALLOW...1000 TO 2000 FEET OF DEPTH AS DEEPER SATURATION PULLS
EAST...WITH DECENT SHEAR AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. THIS WOULD
BRING SOME CONCERN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE MAINLY
NEAR/EAST OF I 29 LATER AT NIGHT. GFS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
HOLDING ON TO THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE BY THE NAM...WILL DESERVE SOME CLOSE MONITORING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE...
AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO HAVE A MARKEDLY NON
DIURNAL TREND MID AND EAST...WITH QUICKER DROP WEST AND MORE
STEADY LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND WINDS
BALANCE CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY WILL FIND A GREAT MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH/EAST...NORTH OF A SURFACE QUASI-WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXIST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD AID IN
DECREASING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS BACKING WINDS MORE TOWARD
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME WHICH COULD PULL THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WESTWARD. INVERSION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WILL LIMIT ABILITY TO MIX OUT SUCH CLOUDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE DECREASE IN GRADIENT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH THE POOLING OF A GREAT DEAL OF SNOW MELT MOISTURE BENEATH
THE INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRIDAY NIGHT IS MUCH MORE RIPE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE TIME HAVE MENTIONED SOME FOG
CHANCE BY LATE EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WOULD BE A SLOW DISSIPATION ON SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY ADVECTION REQUIRED TO REMOVE GIVEN FORMIDABLE INVERSION.
HAVE SHADED QUITE A BIT WARMER ON LOWS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
CLOUDS/FOG...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S...IF NOT EVEN WARMER.

CONSENSUS ON ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW QUITE A BIT SLOWER FOR SATURDAY...
AS DRIVING JET TAKES ABOUT 6 HOURS LONGER TO MOVE THE ENTRANCE
REGION INTO POSITION ACROSS THE REGION. THE SLOWED FRONT LEAVES
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SET UP TO BE QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY
SO THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. EXPECT VERY LITTLE SNOW
COVER TO REMAIN BY SATURDAY MIDDAY. PATTERN IS ALMOST AN EXACT
LOW TO MID LEVEL MATCH FOR THE LOCAL EXTREME EVENT CLIMATOLOGY FOR
WARMEST MAXES. GIVEN RAW MODEL SOLUTIONS... TEMPERATURES AND EVEN
THE MOST SHALLOW MIXING WOULD HAVE SIOUX CITY RECORD HIGH OF 63
DEGREES NOT OUT OF REACH. WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT CHANGING SO
MUCH OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH...TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY.

FRONT BLAST SOUTHWARD LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
PROBABLY WILL NOT STOP THE FALL WITH THE END OF THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CYCLE...AND STEADY TO SLOW FALL THEIR WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY
THAT SHOULD BE A FEW FLURRIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS WELL AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE ICE FAVORING ZONE. ARCTIC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY...BUT WITHOUT SNOW COVER SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF MODIFYING SLIGHTLY. MONDAY MORNING WILL STILL FIND LIGHTER
WINDS AND PROSPECT FOR MORE CLEAR SKIES...AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS
DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM INITIALIZATION GRIDS. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A BRIEF STAY ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BAROCLINICITY BEFORE NEXT TIME BOUNDARY
WAFFLES SOUTHWARD.

AGREEMENT HARDER AND HARDER TO COME BY IN LONGEST RANGES OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINGING WAVE INTO
CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE AREA ON LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ECMWF LOOKING TO ACCOMPLISH A SIMILAR TASK WITH
SYSTEM JUST A DAY OR SO LATER. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN LONGEST
RANGES...HAVE NOT ALTERED THE LOWER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD...AND MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH SIGNAL OF STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH CONCERNING IN TERMS OF
LOCKING IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DESPITE SOME WARMING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW HAS ENDED FOR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO PORTIONS
OF SW MN AND NW IA. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT KSUX THOUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. OTHERWISE...AFTER
CLOUDS EXIT KSUX THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
18Z THURSDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER



000
FXUS63 KABR 262146
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE SD/ND/MN
BORDER BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND
FRESH SNOW WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS BELOW ZERO BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER
WEST HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER AND LESS SNOWFALL SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. RETURN FLOW WINDS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL BE WARMER. IN
FACT...THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA TO NEAR 35 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT SNOWFALL...SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. DUE TO THE STRONG PUSH OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND MODEL
DOMINANT PTYPE PROGS ALL SUPPORTS THIS OCCURRENCE. THEREFORE WENT
AHEAD AND THREW THE WINTRY MIX INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...A VERY BRIEF WINDOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRENCE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY STEADY...OR EVEN RISING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATIONS OF SURFACE FEATURES. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH OUR
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR/PACIFIC AIR DOMINATING THE REGION WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT WEST RIDING ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING
ARCTIC BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA. THE SNOW COVER AND WINDS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH DAYS. WE MAY ALSO BE LOOKING
AT SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WITH THE SNOW MELT OCCURRING
AND HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION PROBABLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN BEHIND IT. THE ARCTIC AIR
AND COLD BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FOR THIS TIME...LOWS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AGAIN RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK CLOSE
TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...THE ENTIRE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS WORKING SOUTH OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IMPACT THE KMBG TAF
SITE...AND VSBYS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTH TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 262146
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE SD/ND/MN
BORDER BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND
FRESH SNOW WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS BELOW ZERO BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER
WEST HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER AND LESS SNOWFALL SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. RETURN FLOW WINDS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL BE WARMER. IN
FACT...THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA TO NEAR 35 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT SNOWFALL...SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. DUE TO THE STRONG PUSH OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND MODEL
DOMINANT PTYPE PROGS ALL SUPPORTS THIS OCCURRENCE. THEREFORE WENT
AHEAD AND THREW THE WINTRY MIX INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...A VERY BRIEF WINDOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRENCE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY STEADY...OR EVEN RISING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATIONS OF SURFACE FEATURES. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH OUR
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR/PACIFIC AIR DOMINATING THE REGION WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT WEST RIDING ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING
ARCTIC BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA. THE SNOW COVER AND WINDS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH DAYS. WE MAY ALSO BE LOOKING
AT SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WITH THE SNOW MELT OCCURRING
AND HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION PROBABLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN BEHIND IT. THE ARCTIC AIR
AND COLD BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FOR THIS TIME...LOWS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AGAIN RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK CLOSE
TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...THE ENTIRE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS WORKING SOUTH OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IMPACT THE KMBG TAF
SITE...AND VSBYS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTH TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 262146
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE SD/ND/MN
BORDER BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND
FRESH SNOW WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS BELOW ZERO BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER
WEST HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER AND LESS SNOWFALL SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. RETURN FLOW WINDS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL BE WARMER. IN
FACT...THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA TO NEAR 35 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT SNOWFALL...SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. DUE TO THE STRONG PUSH OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND MODEL
DOMINANT PTYPE PROGS ALL SUPPORTS THIS OCCURRENCE. THEREFORE WENT
AHEAD AND THREW THE WINTRY MIX INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...A VERY BRIEF WINDOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRENCE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY STEADY...OR EVEN RISING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATIONS OF SURFACE FEATURES. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH OUR
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR/PACIFIC AIR DOMINATING THE REGION WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT WEST RIDING ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING
ARCTIC BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA. THE SNOW COVER AND WINDS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH DAYS. WE MAY ALSO BE LOOKING
AT SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WITH THE SNOW MELT OCCURRING
AND HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION PROBABLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN BEHIND IT. THE ARCTIC AIR
AND COLD BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FOR THIS TIME...LOWS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AGAIN RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK CLOSE
TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...THE ENTIRE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS WORKING SOUTH OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IMPACT THE KMBG TAF
SITE...AND VSBYS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTH TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 262146
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE SD/ND/MN
BORDER BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND
FRESH SNOW WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS BELOW ZERO BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER
WEST HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER AND LESS SNOWFALL SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. RETURN FLOW WINDS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL BE WARMER. IN
FACT...THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA TO NEAR 35 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT SNOWFALL...SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. DUE TO THE STRONG PUSH OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND MODEL
DOMINANT PTYPE PROGS ALL SUPPORTS THIS OCCURRENCE. THEREFORE WENT
AHEAD AND THREW THE WINTRY MIX INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...A VERY BRIEF WINDOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRENCE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY STEADY...OR EVEN RISING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATIONS OF SURFACE FEATURES. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH OUR
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR/PACIFIC AIR DOMINATING THE REGION WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT WEST RIDING ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING
ARCTIC BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA. THE SNOW COVER AND WINDS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH DAYS. WE MAY ALSO BE LOOKING
AT SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WITH THE SNOW MELT OCCURRING
AND HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION PROBABLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN BEHIND IT. THE ARCTIC AIR
AND COLD BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FOR THIS TIME...LOWS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AGAIN RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK CLOSE
TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...THE ENTIRE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS WORKING SOUTH OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IMPACT THE KMBG TAF
SITE...AND VSBYS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTH TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 262111
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
211 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 153 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A TROF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE FAR SW CONUS. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH 150KT
JET ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SKIES ARE CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH WEAK
LOW/TROF ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT...NW-SE ORIENTED JET/BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE PRECIPITATION SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AS 500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND LOW TO
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES
AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT FZRA/FZDZ OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY AND
NORTHWESTERN SD LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS...TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING.

ON THURSDAY...WESTERN RIDGE AND WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS THE COLDER AIR RETREATS TO THE EAST
AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S TO MID
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 153 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH.
WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WILL BRING TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE NEXT TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY...BRINGING
A SURGE OF COLD AIR TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...NOW
HAVING IT PASS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS STILL
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS SOME MORE TO
ACCOUNT FOR GFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE A 30-40 DEGREE SPREAD FOR HIGH TEMPS
SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY
SUNDAY...BUT MINIMAL QPF IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY LOOKS COLD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS. MODELS SUGGEST
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 153 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR THE BLKHLS AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE






000
FXUS63 KUNR 262111
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
211 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 153 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A TROF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE FAR SW CONUS. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH 150KT
JET ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SKIES ARE CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH WEAK
LOW/TROF ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT...NW-SE ORIENTED JET/BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE PRECIPITATION SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AS 500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND LOW TO
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES
AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT FZRA/FZDZ OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY AND
NORTHWESTERN SD LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS...TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING.

ON THURSDAY...WESTERN RIDGE AND WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS THE COLDER AIR RETREATS TO THE EAST
AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S TO MID
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 153 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH.
WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WILL BRING TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE NEXT TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY...BRINGING
A SURGE OF COLD AIR TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...NOW
HAVING IT PASS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS STILL
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS SOME MORE TO
ACCOUNT FOR GFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE A 30-40 DEGREE SPREAD FOR HIGH TEMPS
SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY
SUNDAY...BUT MINIMAL QPF IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY LOOKS COLD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS. MODELS SUGGEST
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 153 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR THE BLKHLS AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KABR 261752 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1152 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN LET TO EXPIRE AS PLANNED THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CWA.
THEREFORE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS FACT. ADDITIONALLY...AN
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL CLIP
OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED LOW POPS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DID ALSO LOWER HIGH TEMPS ACROSS
THE EAST AS THEY ARE SLOW TO RISE THIS MORNING...PLUS ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SAGGING SOUTH WITH LIMIT TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS THIS CWA BY 15Z OR SOONER. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES WEST OF BROWN/SPINK. WILL KEEP THE EASTERN
PORTION GOING BASED ON WEB-CAMS ALONG I-29...WHICH SHOWS BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE TODAY PERIOD WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURSDAY...LOWS SHOULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 5 BELOW...TO 10 BELOW
ZERO. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING COLDER TEMPS IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER THE SAME MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING
INCREASING CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WAA PCPN POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
12. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AS BEING ALL SNOW
FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN BEHIND
THE MAIN WAA BAND. TYPICALLY...THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
FREEZING RAIN OR IP IS SHORT LIVED AND USUALLY NOT A MAIN ISSUE.
THERE IS A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR MIXED PCPN SO WILL
MAINTAIN ALL SNOW FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD
BY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA
SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP...WITH THE TIME
PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME PRETTY
WINDY CONDITIONS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST
DAY. H85 TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE ZERO ON TUESDAY...WITH 30S AND 40S
LIKELY FOR HIGHS THAT DAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN OVER
THE WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS WORKING SOUTH OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IMPACT THE KMBG TAF
SITE...AND VSBYS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTH TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 261752 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1152 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN LET TO EXPIRE AS PLANNED THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CWA.
THEREFORE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS FACT. ADDITIONALLY...AN
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL CLIP
OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED LOW POPS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DID ALSO LOWER HIGH TEMPS ACROSS
THE EAST AS THEY ARE SLOW TO RISE THIS MORNING...PLUS ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SAGGING SOUTH WITH LIMIT TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS THIS CWA BY 15Z OR SOONER. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES WEST OF BROWN/SPINK. WILL KEEP THE EASTERN
PORTION GOING BASED ON WEB-CAMS ALONG I-29...WHICH SHOWS BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE TODAY PERIOD WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURSDAY...LOWS SHOULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 5 BELOW...TO 10 BELOW
ZERO. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING COLDER TEMPS IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER THE SAME MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING
INCREASING CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WAA PCPN POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
12. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AS BEING ALL SNOW
FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN BEHIND
THE MAIN WAA BAND. TYPICALLY...THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
FREEZING RAIN OR IP IS SHORT LIVED AND USUALLY NOT A MAIN ISSUE.
THERE IS A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR MIXED PCPN SO WILL
MAINTAIN ALL SNOW FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD
BY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA
SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP...WITH THE TIME
PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME PRETTY
WINDY CONDITIONS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST
DAY. H85 TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE ZERO ON TUESDAY...WITH 30S AND 40S
LIKELY FOR HIGHS THAT DAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN OVER
THE WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS WORKING SOUTH OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IMPACT THE KMBG TAF
SITE...AND VSBYS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTH TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 261737
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1037 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A TROF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE FAR SW CONUS. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH 150KT
JET ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SKIES ARE CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH WEAK
LOW/TROF ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH COULD BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WYOMING...THE BLACK HILLS...INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND UPPER ANALYSIS SHOW UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. FAST 150KT
JET FLOW IS DIVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
WILL INTENSIFY TODAY WITH INCREASED MID-HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
ABOVE THE COLDER AIR AT THEE SURFACE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AND NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER NERN WY AND PARTS OF FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NEWD TONIGHT AS UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD AND LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FZRA OVER PARTS
OF NERN WY AND NWRN SD LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THERE WILL
BE A WIDE SPREAD OF TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS THE COLDER AIR
RETREATS TO THE EAST AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30F TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH HIGHS AROUND 50F OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE PRECIPITATION OVER FAR
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN THE MORNING WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA BY AFTERNOON...LEAVING DRY WEATHER AND VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
FOR THURSDAY AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH.
WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WILL BRING TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECM/GFS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS TRENDED WARMER DELAYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TILL SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE ECM CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT PASSING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR GFS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY SUNDAY...BUT MINIMAL QPF IS EXPECTED. COLDER AIR
WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME MODIFYING IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR THE BLKHLS AREA.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 261737
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1037 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A TROF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE FAR SW CONUS. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH 150KT
JET ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SKIES ARE CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH WEAK
LOW/TROF ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH COULD BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WYOMING...THE BLACK HILLS...INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND UPPER ANALYSIS SHOW UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. FAST 150KT
JET FLOW IS DIVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
WILL INTENSIFY TODAY WITH INCREASED MID-HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
ABOVE THE COLDER AIR AT THEE SURFACE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AND NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER NERN WY AND PARTS OF FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NEWD TONIGHT AS UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD AND LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FZRA OVER PARTS
OF NERN WY AND NWRN SD LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THERE WILL
BE A WIDE SPREAD OF TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS THE COLDER AIR
RETREATS TO THE EAST AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30F TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH HIGHS AROUND 50F OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE PRECIPITATION OVER FAR
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN THE MORNING WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA BY AFTERNOON...LEAVING DRY WEATHER AND VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
FOR THURSDAY AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH.
WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WILL BRING TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECM/GFS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS TRENDED WARMER DELAYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TILL SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE ECM CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT PASSING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR GFS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY SUNDAY...BUT MINIMAL QPF IS EXPECTED. COLDER AIR
WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME MODIFYING IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR THE BLKHLS AREA.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE






000
FXUS63 KFSD 261725
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1125 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BACK END OF SNOW SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT DOES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PICK UP FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. THE CURRENT ADVISORY
LOOKS GOOD WITH THIS SECOND SURGE MOVING ACROSS AND THE WINDS DUE TO
PICK UP. HAVE CONSIDERED ADDING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM HON TO
BKX BUT WITH HON HAVING ALMOST NO SNOW SO FAR AND BKX A LITTLE SLOWER
ON THE WIND PICKUP...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT. EVEN BKX HAS
LESS SNOW THAN FSD...WE HAVE AN INCH...AND THE WINDS WILL PICK
UP A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AT HON. WILL KEEP SOME BLOWING SNOW IN THE
FORECAST AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE SECOND SURGE HAS DICTATED MORE
SNOW MENTION AND A LITTLE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THIS STRETCH FROM NOW
THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING...BUT IT WILL STILL MOVE OUT TO THE
SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY LATER IN THE MORNING. SOME SNOW WILL HANG ON IN
THE ADVISORY AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE SOME BLOWING
SNOW IN THAT AREA PAST THE NOON ADVISORY EXPIRATION.

SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR A WHILE OVER THE
AREA WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BUT AN ASSORTMENT OF MID AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BETTER CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FURTHER EAST...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THERE TONIGHT.
THE CLOUD INCREASE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FROM WARM ADVECTION
UPSTAIRS STARTING IN ALREADY. WILL KEEP A FEW FLURRIES FAR SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT TO
ACCOMPANY THE WARM ADVECTION.

THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH SNOW TO BLOW...AND AM
CURRENTLY PROJECTING THESE WINDS TO STAY A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS. FURTHER EAST...THE SLIGHTLY LESS STRONG WINDS PLUS
THE LATER PICKUP SHOULD PREVENT TOO MANY PROBLEMS ONCE THE FALLING
SNOW ENDS...THUS KEEPING THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION AT NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING MOST OF TODAY...MAYBE BRIEFLY
LEVELING OFF EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RESUMING A DROP TONIGHT.
READINGS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST. THE WIND DROPOFF SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO THE
MINUS 20 AND COLDER ZONE WHICH IS OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THAT...BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MAY GET
CLOSE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CONUS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING AS MID-LVL HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH
THE DAY.  LOW-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE QUICKLY BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY
AS THIS MID-LVL BAND OF MOISTURE/LIFT CROSSES THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH AN EXCEPTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
NORTHEAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A STOUT UPPER LVL JET WILL PRODUCE
A BAND OF SNOW TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

WARM WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH A RATHER WARM FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD.

A BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL RACE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND DROP TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL. THIS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT SUSTAINED LONG-DURATION COLD
SPELLS...AS SIGNS POINT TO A QUICK REBOUND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY
THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW HAS ENDED FOR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO PORTIONS
OF SW MN AND NW IA. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT KSUX THOUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. OTHERWISE...AFTER
CLOUDS EXIT KSUX THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER



000
FXUS63 KFSD 261725
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1125 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BACK END OF SNOW SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT DOES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PICK UP FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. THE CURRENT ADVISORY
LOOKS GOOD WITH THIS SECOND SURGE MOVING ACROSS AND THE WINDS DUE TO
PICK UP. HAVE CONSIDERED ADDING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM HON TO
BKX BUT WITH HON HAVING ALMOST NO SNOW SO FAR AND BKX A LITTLE SLOWER
ON THE WIND PICKUP...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT. EVEN BKX HAS
LESS SNOW THAN FSD...WE HAVE AN INCH...AND THE WINDS WILL PICK
UP A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AT HON. WILL KEEP SOME BLOWING SNOW IN THE
FORECAST AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE SECOND SURGE HAS DICTATED MORE
SNOW MENTION AND A LITTLE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THIS STRETCH FROM NOW
THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING...BUT IT WILL STILL MOVE OUT TO THE
SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY LATER IN THE MORNING. SOME SNOW WILL HANG ON IN
THE ADVISORY AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE SOME BLOWING
SNOW IN THAT AREA PAST THE NOON ADVISORY EXPIRATION.

SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR A WHILE OVER THE
AREA WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BUT AN ASSORTMENT OF MID AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BETTER CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FURTHER EAST...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THERE TONIGHT.
THE CLOUD INCREASE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FROM WARM ADVECTION
UPSTAIRS STARTING IN ALREADY. WILL KEEP A FEW FLURRIES FAR SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT TO
ACCOMPANY THE WARM ADVECTION.

THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH SNOW TO BLOW...AND AM
CURRENTLY PROJECTING THESE WINDS TO STAY A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS. FURTHER EAST...THE SLIGHTLY LESS STRONG WINDS PLUS
THE LATER PICKUP SHOULD PREVENT TOO MANY PROBLEMS ONCE THE FALLING
SNOW ENDS...THUS KEEPING THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION AT NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING MOST OF TODAY...MAYBE BRIEFLY
LEVELING OFF EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RESUMING A DROP TONIGHT.
READINGS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST. THE WIND DROPOFF SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO THE
MINUS 20 AND COLDER ZONE WHICH IS OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THAT...BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MAY GET
CLOSE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CONUS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING AS MID-LVL HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH
THE DAY.  LOW-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE QUICKLY BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY
AS THIS MID-LVL BAND OF MOISTURE/LIFT CROSSES THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH AN EXCEPTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
NORTHEAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A STOUT UPPER LVL JET WILL PRODUCE
A BAND OF SNOW TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

WARM WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH A RATHER WARM FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD.

A BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL RACE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND DROP TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL. THIS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT SUSTAINED LONG-DURATION COLD
SPELLS...AS SIGNS POINT TO A QUICK REBOUND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY
THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW HAS ENDED FOR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO PORTIONS
OF SW MN AND NW IA. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT KSUX THOUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. OTHERWISE...AFTER
CLOUDS EXIT KSUX THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER



000
FXUS63 KFSD 261725
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1125 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BACK END OF SNOW SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT DOES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PICK UP FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. THE CURRENT ADVISORY
LOOKS GOOD WITH THIS SECOND SURGE MOVING ACROSS AND THE WINDS DUE TO
PICK UP. HAVE CONSIDERED ADDING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM HON TO
BKX BUT WITH HON HAVING ALMOST NO SNOW SO FAR AND BKX A LITTLE SLOWER
ON THE WIND PICKUP...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT. EVEN BKX HAS
LESS SNOW THAN FSD...WE HAVE AN INCH...AND THE WINDS WILL PICK
UP A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AT HON. WILL KEEP SOME BLOWING SNOW IN THE
FORECAST AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE SECOND SURGE HAS DICTATED MORE
SNOW MENTION AND A LITTLE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THIS STRETCH FROM NOW
THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING...BUT IT WILL STILL MOVE OUT TO THE
SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY LATER IN THE MORNING. SOME SNOW WILL HANG ON IN
THE ADVISORY AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE SOME BLOWING
SNOW IN THAT AREA PAST THE NOON ADVISORY EXPIRATION.

SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR A WHILE OVER THE
AREA WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BUT AN ASSORTMENT OF MID AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BETTER CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FURTHER EAST...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THERE TONIGHT.
THE CLOUD INCREASE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FROM WARM ADVECTION
UPSTAIRS STARTING IN ALREADY. WILL KEEP A FEW FLURRIES FAR SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT TO
ACCOMPANY THE WARM ADVECTION.

THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH SNOW TO BLOW...AND AM
CURRENTLY PROJECTING THESE WINDS TO STAY A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS. FURTHER EAST...THE SLIGHTLY LESS STRONG WINDS PLUS
THE LATER PICKUP SHOULD PREVENT TOO MANY PROBLEMS ONCE THE FALLING
SNOW ENDS...THUS KEEPING THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION AT NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING MOST OF TODAY...MAYBE BRIEFLY
LEVELING OFF EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RESUMING A DROP TONIGHT.
READINGS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST. THE WIND DROPOFF SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO THE
MINUS 20 AND COLDER ZONE WHICH IS OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THAT...BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MAY GET
CLOSE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CONUS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING AS MID-LVL HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH
THE DAY.  LOW-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE QUICKLY BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY
AS THIS MID-LVL BAND OF MOISTURE/LIFT CROSSES THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH AN EXCEPTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
NORTHEAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A STOUT UPPER LVL JET WILL PRODUCE
A BAND OF SNOW TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

WARM WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH A RATHER WARM FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD.

A BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL RACE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND DROP TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL. THIS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT SUSTAINED LONG-DURATION COLD
SPELLS...AS SIGNS POINT TO A QUICK REBOUND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY
THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW HAS ENDED FOR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO PORTIONS
OF SW MN AND NW IA. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT KSUX THOUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. OTHERWISE...AFTER
CLOUDS EXIT KSUX THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER



000
FXUS63 KFSD 261725
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1125 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BACK END OF SNOW SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT DOES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PICK UP FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. THE CURRENT ADVISORY
LOOKS GOOD WITH THIS SECOND SURGE MOVING ACROSS AND THE WINDS DUE TO
PICK UP. HAVE CONSIDERED ADDING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM HON TO
BKX BUT WITH HON HAVING ALMOST NO SNOW SO FAR AND BKX A LITTLE SLOWER
ON THE WIND PICKUP...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT. EVEN BKX HAS
LESS SNOW THAN FSD...WE HAVE AN INCH...AND THE WINDS WILL PICK
UP A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AT HON. WILL KEEP SOME BLOWING SNOW IN THE
FORECAST AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE SECOND SURGE HAS DICTATED MORE
SNOW MENTION AND A LITTLE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THIS STRETCH FROM NOW
THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING...BUT IT WILL STILL MOVE OUT TO THE
SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY LATER IN THE MORNING. SOME SNOW WILL HANG ON IN
THE ADVISORY AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE SOME BLOWING
SNOW IN THAT AREA PAST THE NOON ADVISORY EXPIRATION.

SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR A WHILE OVER THE
AREA WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BUT AN ASSORTMENT OF MID AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BETTER CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FURTHER EAST...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THERE TONIGHT.
THE CLOUD INCREASE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FROM WARM ADVECTION
UPSTAIRS STARTING IN ALREADY. WILL KEEP A FEW FLURRIES FAR SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT TO
ACCOMPANY THE WARM ADVECTION.

THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH SNOW TO BLOW...AND AM
CURRENTLY PROJECTING THESE WINDS TO STAY A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS. FURTHER EAST...THE SLIGHTLY LESS STRONG WINDS PLUS
THE LATER PICKUP SHOULD PREVENT TOO MANY PROBLEMS ONCE THE FALLING
SNOW ENDS...THUS KEEPING THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION AT NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING MOST OF TODAY...MAYBE BRIEFLY
LEVELING OFF EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RESUMING A DROP TONIGHT.
READINGS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST. THE WIND DROPOFF SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO THE
MINUS 20 AND COLDER ZONE WHICH IS OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THAT...BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MAY GET
CLOSE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CONUS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING AS MID-LVL HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH
THE DAY.  LOW-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE QUICKLY BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY
AS THIS MID-LVL BAND OF MOISTURE/LIFT CROSSES THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH AN EXCEPTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
NORTHEAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A STOUT UPPER LVL JET WILL PRODUCE
A BAND OF SNOW TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

WARM WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH A RATHER WARM FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD.

A BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL RACE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND DROP TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL. THIS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT SUSTAINED LONG-DURATION COLD
SPELLS...AS SIGNS POINT TO A QUICK REBOUND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY
THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW HAS ENDED FOR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO PORTIONS
OF SW MN AND NW IA. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT KSUX THOUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. OTHERWISE...AFTER
CLOUDS EXIT KSUX THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER



000
FXUS63 KUNR 261702
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1002 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND UPPER ANALYSIS SHOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. FAST 150KT JET FLOW
IS DIVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NW-SE ORIENTED
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WILL INTENSIFY
TODAY WITH INCREASED MID-HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE
COLDER AIR AT THEE SURFACE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND
NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER NERN WY AND PARTS OF FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NEWD TONIGHT AS UPPER HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO BUILD AND LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES.
SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SNOW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FZRA OVER PARTS OF NERN WY
AND NWRN SD LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THERE WILL BE A WIDE
SPREAD OF TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS THE COLDER AIR RETREATS TO
THE EAST AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30F TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH HIGHS AROUND 50F OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE PRECIPITATION OVER FAR
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN THE MORNING WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA BY AFTERNOON...LEAVING DRY WEATHER AND VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
FOR THURSDAY AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH.
WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WILL BRING TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECM/GFS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS TRENDED WARMER DELAYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TILL SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE ECM CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT PASSING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR GFS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY SUNDAY...BUT MINIMAL QPF IS EXPECTED. COLDER AIR
WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME MODIFYING IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR THE BLKHLS AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 261702
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1002 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND UPPER ANALYSIS SHOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. FAST 150KT JET FLOW
IS DIVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NW-SE ORIENTED
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WILL INTENSIFY
TODAY WITH INCREASED MID-HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE
COLDER AIR AT THEE SURFACE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND
NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER NERN WY AND PARTS OF FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NEWD TONIGHT AS UPPER HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO BUILD AND LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES.
SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SNOW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FZRA OVER PARTS OF NERN WY
AND NWRN SD LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THERE WILL BE A WIDE
SPREAD OF TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS THE COLDER AIR RETREATS TO
THE EAST AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30F TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH HIGHS AROUND 50F OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE PRECIPITATION OVER FAR
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN THE MORNING WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA BY AFTERNOON...LEAVING DRY WEATHER AND VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
FOR THURSDAY AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH.
WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WILL BRING TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECM/GFS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS TRENDED WARMER DELAYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TILL SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE ECM CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT PASSING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR GFS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY SUNDAY...BUT MINIMAL QPF IS EXPECTED. COLDER AIR
WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME MODIFYING IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR THE BLKHLS AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 261702
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1002 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND UPPER ANALYSIS SHOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. FAST 150KT JET FLOW
IS DIVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NW-SE ORIENTED
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WILL INTENSIFY
TODAY WITH INCREASED MID-HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE
COLDER AIR AT THEE SURFACE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND
NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER NERN WY AND PARTS OF FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NEWD TONIGHT AS UPPER HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO BUILD AND LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES.
SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SNOW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FZRA OVER PARTS OF NERN WY
AND NWRN SD LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THERE WILL BE A WIDE
SPREAD OF TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS THE COLDER AIR RETREATS TO
THE EAST AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30F TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH HIGHS AROUND 50F OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE PRECIPITATION OVER FAR
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN THE MORNING WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA BY AFTERNOON...LEAVING DRY WEATHER AND VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
FOR THURSDAY AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH.
WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WILL BRING TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECM/GFS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS TRENDED WARMER DELAYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TILL SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE ECM CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT PASSING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR GFS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY SUNDAY...BUT MINIMAL QPF IS EXPECTED. COLDER AIR
WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME MODIFYING IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR THE BLKHLS AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 261702
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1002 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND UPPER ANALYSIS SHOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. FAST 150KT JET FLOW
IS DIVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NW-SE ORIENTED
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WILL INTENSIFY
TODAY WITH INCREASED MID-HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE
COLDER AIR AT THEE SURFACE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND
NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER NERN WY AND PARTS OF FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NEWD TONIGHT AS UPPER HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO BUILD AND LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES.
SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SNOW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FZRA OVER PARTS OF NERN WY
AND NWRN SD LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THERE WILL BE A WIDE
SPREAD OF TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS THE COLDER AIR RETREATS TO
THE EAST AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30F TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH HIGHS AROUND 50F OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE PRECIPITATION OVER FAR
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN THE MORNING WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA BY AFTERNOON...LEAVING DRY WEATHER AND VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
FOR THURSDAY AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH.
WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WILL BRING TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECM/GFS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS TRENDED WARMER DELAYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TILL SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE ECM CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT PASSING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR GFS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY SUNDAY...BUT MINIMAL QPF IS EXPECTED. COLDER AIR
WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME MODIFYING IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR THE BLKHLS AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KABR 261540 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
940 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN LET TO EXPIRE AS PLANNED THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CWA.
THEREFORE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS FACT. ADDITIONALLY...AN
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL CLIP
OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED LOW POPS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DID ALSO LOWER HIGH TEMPS ACROSS
THE EAST AS THEY ARE SLOW TO RISE THIS MORNING...PLUS ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SAGGING SOUTH WITH LIMIT TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS THIS CWA BY 15Z OR SOONER. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES WEST OF BROWN/SPINK. WILL KEEP THE EASTERN
PORTION GOING BASED ON WEB-CAMS ALONG I-29...WHICH SHOWS BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE TODAY PERIOD WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURSDAY...LOWS SHOULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 5 BELOW...TO 10 BELOW
ZERO. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING COLDER TEMPS IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER THE SAME MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING
INCREASING CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WAA PCPN POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
12. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AS BEING ALL SNOW
FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN BEHIND
THE MAIN WAA BAND. TYPICALLY...THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
FREEZING RAIN OR IP IS SHORT LIVED AND USUALLY NOT A MAIN ISSUE.
THERE IS A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR MIXED PCPN SO WILL
MAINTAIN ALL SNOW FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD
BY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA
SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP...WITH THE TIME
PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME PRETTY
WINDY CONDITIONS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST
DAY. H85 TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE ZERO ON TUESDAY...WITH 30S AND 40S
LIKELY FOR HIGHS THAT DAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN OVER
THE WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT THE CWA TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY 15Z. AN AREA
OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MAY STILL
SEE SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. BY EARLY EVENING...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AND WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 261540 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
940 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN LET TO EXPIRE AS PLANNED THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CWA.
THEREFORE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS FACT. ADDITIONALLY...AN
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL CLIP
OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED LOW POPS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DID ALSO LOWER HIGH TEMPS ACROSS
THE EAST AS THEY ARE SLOW TO RISE THIS MORNING...PLUS ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SAGGING SOUTH WITH LIMIT TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS THIS CWA BY 15Z OR SOONER. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES WEST OF BROWN/SPINK. WILL KEEP THE EASTERN
PORTION GOING BASED ON WEB-CAMS ALONG I-29...WHICH SHOWS BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE TODAY PERIOD WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURSDAY...LOWS SHOULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 5 BELOW...TO 10 BELOW
ZERO. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING COLDER TEMPS IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER THE SAME MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING
INCREASING CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WAA PCPN POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
12. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AS BEING ALL SNOW
FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN BEHIND
THE MAIN WAA BAND. TYPICALLY...THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
FREEZING RAIN OR IP IS SHORT LIVED AND USUALLY NOT A MAIN ISSUE.
THERE IS A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR MIXED PCPN SO WILL
MAINTAIN ALL SNOW FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD
BY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA
SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP...WITH THE TIME
PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME PRETTY
WINDY CONDITIONS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST
DAY. H85 TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE ZERO ON TUESDAY...WITH 30S AND 40S
LIKELY FOR HIGHS THAT DAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN OVER
THE WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT THE CWA TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY 15Z. AN AREA
OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MAY STILL
SEE SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. BY EARLY EVENING...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AND WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 261126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
526 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS THIS CWA BY 15Z OR SOONER. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES WEST OF BROWN/SPINK. WILL KEEP THE EASTERN
PORTION GOING BASED ON WEB-CAMS ALONG I-29...WHICH SHOWS BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE TODAY PERIOD WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURSDAY...LOWS SHOULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 5 BELOW...TO 10 BELOW
ZERO. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING COLDER TEMPS IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER THE SAME MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING
INCREASING CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WAA PCPN POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
12. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AS BEING ALL SNOW
FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN BEHIND
THE MAIN WAA BAND. TYPICALLY...THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
FREEZING RAIN OR IP IS SHORT LIVED AND USUALLY NOT A MAIN ISSUE.
THERE IS A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR MIXED PCPN SO WILL
MAINTAIN ALL SNOW FOR NOW.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD
BY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA
SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP...WITH THE TIME
PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME PRETTY
WINDY CONDITIONS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST
DAY. H85 TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE ZERO ON TUESDAY...WITH 30S AND 40S
LIKELY FOR HIGHS THAT DAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN OVER
THE WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT THE CWA TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY 15Z. AN AREA
OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MAY STILL
SEE SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. BY EARLY EVENING...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AND WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BROWN-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-
     SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 261126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
526 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS THIS CWA BY 15Z OR SOONER. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES WEST OF BROWN/SPINK. WILL KEEP THE EASTERN
PORTION GOING BASED ON WEB-CAMS ALONG I-29...WHICH SHOWS BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE TODAY PERIOD WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURSDAY...LOWS SHOULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 5 BELOW...TO 10 BELOW
ZERO. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING COLDER TEMPS IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER THE SAME MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING
INCREASING CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WAA PCPN POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
12. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AS BEING ALL SNOW
FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN BEHIND
THE MAIN WAA BAND. TYPICALLY...THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
FREEZING RAIN OR IP IS SHORT LIVED AND USUALLY NOT A MAIN ISSUE.
THERE IS A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR MIXED PCPN SO WILL
MAINTAIN ALL SNOW FOR NOW.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD
BY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA
SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP...WITH THE TIME
PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME PRETTY
WINDY CONDITIONS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST
DAY. H85 TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE ZERO ON TUESDAY...WITH 30S AND 40S
LIKELY FOR HIGHS THAT DAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN OVER
THE WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT THE CWA TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY 15Z. AN AREA
OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MAY STILL
SEE SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. BY EARLY EVENING...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AND WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BROWN-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-
     SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 261125
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
525 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BACK END OF SNOW SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT DOES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PICK UP FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. THE CURRENT ADVISORY
LOOKS GOOD WITH THIS SECOND SURGE MOVING ACROSS AND THE WINDS DUE TO
PICK UP. HAVE CONSIDERED ADDING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM HON TO
BKX BUT WITH HON HAVING ALMOST NO SNOW SO FAR AND BKX A LITTLE SLOWER
ON THE WIND PICKUP...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT. EVEN BKX HAS
LESS SNOW THAN FSD...WE HAVE AN INCH...AND THE WINDS WILL PICK
UP A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AT HON. WILL KEEP SOME BLOWING SNOW IN THE
FORECAST AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE SECOND SURGE HAS DICTATED MORE
SNOW MENTION AND A LITTLE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THIS STRETCH FROM NOW
THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING...BUT IT WILL STILL MOVE OUT TO THE
SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY LATER IN THE MORNING. SOME SNOW WILL HANG ON IN
THE ADVISORY AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE SOME BLOWING
SNOW IN THAT AREA PAST THE NOON ADVISORY EXPIRATION.

SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR A WHILE OVER THE
AREA WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BUT AN ASSORTMENT OF MID AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BETTER CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FURTHER EAST...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THERE TONIGHT.
THE CLOUD INCREASE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FROM WARM ADVECTION
UPSTAIRS STARTING IN ALREADY. WILL KEEP A FEW FLURRIES FAR SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT TO
ACCOMPANY THE WARM ADVECTION.

THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH SNOW TO BLOW...AND AM
CURRENTLY PROJECTING THESE WINDS TO STAY A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS. FURTHER EAST...THE SLIGHTLY LESS STRONG WINDS PLUS
THE LATER PICKUP SHOULD PREVENT TOO MANY PROBLEMS ONCE THE FALLING
SNOW ENDS...THUS KEEPING THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION AT NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING MOST OF TODAY...MAYBE BRIEFLY
LEVELING OFF EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RESUMING A DROP TONIGHT.
READINGS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST. THE WIND DROPOFF SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO THE
MINUS 20 AND COLDER ZONE WHICH IS OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THAT...BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MAY GET
CLOSE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CONUS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING AS MID-LVL HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH
THE DAY.  LOW-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE QUICKLY BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY
AS THIS MID-LVL BAND OF MOISTURE/LIFT CROSSES THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH AN EXCEPTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
NORTHEAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A STOUT UPPER LVL JET WILL PRODUCE
A BAND OF SNOW TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

WARM WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH A RATHER WARM FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD.

A BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL RACE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND DROP TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL. THIS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT SUSTAINED LONG-DURATION COLD
SPELLS...AS SIGNS POINT TO A QUICK REBOUND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY
THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CEILINGS 1-3K FEET VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN SNOW WITH AREAS OF
CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN SNOW AT 12Z.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM THE NORTHWEST 12Z-18Z TO CEILINGS
2-4K FEET AND VISIBILITIES P6SM EXCEPT VERY LOCAL VISIBILITIES
3-5SM IN BLSN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR EXPECTED BY 27/00Z WITH VFR CONTINUING THROUGH 27/12Z. SURFACE
GUSTS 25-35 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST UNTIL 22Z.



&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-090.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ003.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 261125
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
525 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BACK END OF SNOW SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT DOES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PICK UP FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. THE CURRENT ADVISORY
LOOKS GOOD WITH THIS SECOND SURGE MOVING ACROSS AND THE WINDS DUE TO
PICK UP. HAVE CONSIDERED ADDING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM HON TO
BKX BUT WITH HON HAVING ALMOST NO SNOW SO FAR AND BKX A LITTLE SLOWER
ON THE WIND PICKUP...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT. EVEN BKX HAS
LESS SNOW THAN FSD...WE HAVE AN INCH...AND THE WINDS WILL PICK
UP A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AT HON. WILL KEEP SOME BLOWING SNOW IN THE
FORECAST AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE SECOND SURGE HAS DICTATED MORE
SNOW MENTION AND A LITTLE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THIS STRETCH FROM NOW
THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING...BUT IT WILL STILL MOVE OUT TO THE
SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY LATER IN THE MORNING. SOME SNOW WILL HANG ON IN
THE ADVISORY AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE SOME BLOWING
SNOW IN THAT AREA PAST THE NOON ADVISORY EXPIRATION.

SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR A WHILE OVER THE
AREA WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BUT AN ASSORTMENT OF MID AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BETTER CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FURTHER EAST...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THERE TONIGHT.
THE CLOUD INCREASE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FROM WARM ADVECTION
UPSTAIRS STARTING IN ALREADY. WILL KEEP A FEW FLURRIES FAR SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT TO
ACCOMPANY THE WARM ADVECTION.

THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH SNOW TO BLOW...AND AM
CURRENTLY PROJECTING THESE WINDS TO STAY A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS. FURTHER EAST...THE SLIGHTLY LESS STRONG WINDS PLUS
THE LATER PICKUP SHOULD PREVENT TOO MANY PROBLEMS ONCE THE FALLING
SNOW ENDS...THUS KEEPING THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION AT NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING MOST OF TODAY...MAYBE BRIEFLY
LEVELING OFF EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RESUMING A DROP TONIGHT.
READINGS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST. THE WIND DROPOFF SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO THE
MINUS 20 AND COLDER ZONE WHICH IS OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THAT...BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MAY GET
CLOSE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CONUS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING AS MID-LVL HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH
THE DAY.  LOW-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE QUICKLY BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY
AS THIS MID-LVL BAND OF MOISTURE/LIFT CROSSES THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH AN EXCEPTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
NORTHEAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A STOUT UPPER LVL JET WILL PRODUCE
A BAND OF SNOW TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

WARM WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH A RATHER WARM FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD.

A BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL RACE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND DROP TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL. THIS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT SUSTAINED LONG-DURATION COLD
SPELLS...AS SIGNS POINT TO A QUICK REBOUND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY
THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CEILINGS 1-3K FEET VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN SNOW WITH AREAS OF
CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN SNOW AT 12Z.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM THE NORTHWEST 12Z-18Z TO CEILINGS
2-4K FEET AND VISIBILITIES P6SM EXCEPT VERY LOCAL VISIBILITIES
3-5SM IN BLSN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR EXPECTED BY 27/00Z WITH VFR CONTINUING THROUGH 27/12Z. SURFACE
GUSTS 25-35 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST UNTIL 22Z.



&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-090.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ003.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KUNR 261051
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
351 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND UPPER ANALYSIS SHOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. FAST 150KT JET FLOW
IS DIVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NW-SE ORIENTED
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WILL INTENSIFY
TODAY WITH INCREASED MID-HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE
COLDER AIR AT THEE SURFACE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND
NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER NERN WY AND PARTS OF FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NEWD TONIGHT AS UPPER HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO BUILD AND LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES.
SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SNOW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FZRA OVER PARTS OF NERN WY
AND NWRN SD LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THERE WILL BE A WIDE
SPREAD OF TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS THE COLDER AIR RETREATS TO
THE EAST AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30F TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH HIGHS AROUND 50F OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE PRECIPITATION OVER FAR
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN THE MORNING WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA BY AFTERNOON...LEAVING DRY WEATHER AND VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
FOR THURSDAY AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH.
WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WILL BRING TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECM/GFS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS TRENDED WARMER DELAYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TILL SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE ECM CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT PASSING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR GFS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY SUNDAY...BUT MINIMAL QPF IS EXPECTED. COLDER AIR
WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME MODIFYING IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR THE BLKHLS AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KUNR 261051
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
351 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND UPPER ANALYSIS SHOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. FAST 150KT JET FLOW
IS DIVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NW-SE ORIENTED
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WILL INTENSIFY
TODAY WITH INCREASED MID-HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE
COLDER AIR AT THEE SURFACE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND
NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER NERN WY AND PARTS OF FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NEWD TONIGHT AS UPPER HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO BUILD AND LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES.
SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SNOW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FZRA OVER PARTS OF NERN WY
AND NWRN SD LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THERE WILL BE A WIDE
SPREAD OF TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS THE COLDER AIR RETREATS TO
THE EAST AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30F TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH HIGHS AROUND 50F OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE PRECIPITATION OVER FAR
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN THE MORNING WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA BY AFTERNOON...LEAVING DRY WEATHER AND VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
FOR THURSDAY AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH.
WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WILL BRING TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECM/GFS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS TRENDED WARMER DELAYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TILL SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE ECM CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT PASSING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR GFS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY SUNDAY...BUT MINIMAL QPF IS EXPECTED. COLDER AIR
WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME MODIFYING IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR THE BLKHLS AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KABR 261001
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
401 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS THIS CWA BY 15Z OR SOONER. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES WEST OF BROWN/SPINK. WILL KEEP THE EASTERN
PORTION GOING BASED ON WEB-CAMS ALONG I-29...WHICH SHOWS BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE TODAY PERIOD WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURSDAY...LOWS SHOULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 5 BELOW...TO 10 BELOW
ZERO. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING COLDER TEMPS IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER THE SAME MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING
INCREASING CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WAA PCPN POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
12. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AS BEING ALL SNOW
FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN BEHIND
THE MAIN WAA BAND. TYPICALLY...THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
FREEZING RAIN OR IP IS SHORT LIVED AND USUALLY NOT A MAIN ISSUE.
THERE IS A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR MIXED PCPN SO WILL
MAINTAIN ALL SNOW FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD
BY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA
SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP...WITH THE TIME
PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME PRETTY
WINDY CONDITIONS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST
DAY. H85 TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE ZERO ON TUESDAY...WITH 30S AND 40S
LIKELY FOR HIGHS THAT DAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN OVER
THE WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT KABR/KATY AS SNOW
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT
THEN DISSIPATE BY NOON ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BROWN-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-
     SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 261001
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
401 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS THIS CWA BY 15Z OR SOONER. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES WEST OF BROWN/SPINK. WILL KEEP THE EASTERN
PORTION GOING BASED ON WEB-CAMS ALONG I-29...WHICH SHOWS BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE TODAY PERIOD WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURSDAY...LOWS SHOULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 5 BELOW...TO 10 BELOW
ZERO. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING COLDER TEMPS IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER THE SAME MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING
INCREASING CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WAA PCPN POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
12. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AS BEING ALL SNOW
FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN BEHIND
THE MAIN WAA BAND. TYPICALLY...THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
FREEZING RAIN OR IP IS SHORT LIVED AND USUALLY NOT A MAIN ISSUE.
THERE IS A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR MIXED PCPN SO WILL
MAINTAIN ALL SNOW FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD
BY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA
SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP...WITH THE TIME
PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME PRETTY
WINDY CONDITIONS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST
DAY. H85 TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE ZERO ON TUESDAY...WITH 30S AND 40S
LIKELY FOR HIGHS THAT DAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN OVER
THE WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT KABR/KATY AS SNOW
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT
THEN DISSIPATE BY NOON ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BROWN-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-
     SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 261001
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
401 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS THIS CWA BY 15Z OR SOONER. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES WEST OF BROWN/SPINK. WILL KEEP THE EASTERN
PORTION GOING BASED ON WEB-CAMS ALONG I-29...WHICH SHOWS BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE TODAY PERIOD WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURSDAY...LOWS SHOULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 5 BELOW...TO 10 BELOW
ZERO. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING COLDER TEMPS IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER THE SAME MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING
INCREASING CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WAA PCPN POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
12. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AS BEING ALL SNOW
FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN BEHIND
THE MAIN WAA BAND. TYPICALLY...THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
FREEZING RAIN OR IP IS SHORT LIVED AND USUALLY NOT A MAIN ISSUE.
THERE IS A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR MIXED PCPN SO WILL
MAINTAIN ALL SNOW FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD
BY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA
SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP...WITH THE TIME
PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME PRETTY
WINDY CONDITIONS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST
DAY. H85 TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE ZERO ON TUESDAY...WITH 30S AND 40S
LIKELY FOR HIGHS THAT DAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN OVER
THE WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT KABR/KATY AS SNOW
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT
THEN DISSIPATE BY NOON ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BROWN-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-
     SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 261001
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
401 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS THIS CWA BY 15Z OR SOONER. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES WEST OF BROWN/SPINK. WILL KEEP THE EASTERN
PORTION GOING BASED ON WEB-CAMS ALONG I-29...WHICH SHOWS BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE TODAY PERIOD WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURSDAY...LOWS SHOULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 5 BELOW...TO 10 BELOW
ZERO. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING COLDER TEMPS IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER THE SAME MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING
INCREASING CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WAA PCPN POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
12. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AS BEING ALL SNOW
FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN BEHIND
THE MAIN WAA BAND. TYPICALLY...THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
FREEZING RAIN OR IP IS SHORT LIVED AND USUALLY NOT A MAIN ISSUE.
THERE IS A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR MIXED PCPN SO WILL
MAINTAIN ALL SNOW FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD
BY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA
SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP...WITH THE TIME
PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME PRETTY
WINDY CONDITIONS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST
DAY. H85 TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE ZERO ON TUESDAY...WITH 30S AND 40S
LIKELY FOR HIGHS THAT DAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN OVER
THE WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT KABR/KATY AS SNOW
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT
THEN DISSIPATE BY NOON ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BROWN-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-
     SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 261001
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
401 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS THIS CWA BY 15Z OR SOONER. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES WEST OF BROWN/SPINK. WILL KEEP THE EASTERN
PORTION GOING BASED ON WEB-CAMS ALONG I-29...WHICH SHOWS BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE TODAY PERIOD WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURSDAY...LOWS SHOULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 5 BELOW...TO 10 BELOW
ZERO. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING COLDER TEMPS IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER THE SAME MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING
INCREASING CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WAA PCPN POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
12. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AS BEING ALL SNOW
FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN BEHIND
THE MAIN WAA BAND. TYPICALLY...THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
FREEZING RAIN OR IP IS SHORT LIVED AND USUALLY NOT A MAIN ISSUE.
THERE IS A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR MIXED PCPN SO WILL
MAINTAIN ALL SNOW FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD
BY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA
SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP...WITH THE TIME
PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME PRETTY
WINDY CONDITIONS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST
DAY. H85 TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE ZERO ON TUESDAY...WITH 30S AND 40S
LIKELY FOR HIGHS THAT DAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN OVER
THE WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT KABR/KATY AS SNOW
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT
THEN DISSIPATE BY NOON ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BROWN-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-
     SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 260935
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
335 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BACK END OF SNOW SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT DOES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PICK UP FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. THE CURRENT ADVISORY
LOOKS GOOD WITH THIS SECOND SURGE MOVING ACROSS AND THE WINDS DUE TO
PICK UP. HAVE CONSIDERED ADDING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM HON TO
BKX BUT WITH HON HAVING ALMOST NO SNOW SO FAR AND BKX A LITTLE SLOWER
ON THE WIND PICKUP...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT. EVEN BKX HAS
LESS SNOW THAN FSD...WE HAVE AN INCH...AND THE WINDS WILL PICK
UP A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AT HON. WILL KEEP SOME BLOWING SNOW IN THE
FORECAST AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE SECOND SURGE HAS DICTATED MORE
SNOW MENTION AND A LITTLE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THIS STRETCH FROM NOW
THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING...BUT IT WILL STILL MOVE OUT TO THE
SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY LATER IN THE MORNING. SOME SNOW WILL HANG ON IN
THE ADVISORY AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE SOME BLOWING
SNOW IN THAT AREA PAST THE NOON ADVISORY EXPIRATION.

SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR A WHILE OVER THE
AREA WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BUT AN ASSORTMENT OF MID AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BETTER CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FURTHER EAST...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THERE TONIGHT.
THE CLOUD INCREASE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FROM WARM ADVECTION
UPSTAIRS STARTING IN ALREADY. WILL KEEP A FEW FLURRIES FAR SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT TO
ACCOMPANY THE WARM ADVECTION.

THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH SNOW TO BLOW...AND AM
CURRENTLY PROJECTING THESE WINDS TO STAY A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS. FURTHER EAST...THE SLIGHTLY LESS STRONG WINDS PLUS
THE LATER PICKUP SHOULD PREVENT TOO MANY PROBLEMS ONCE THE FALLING
SNOW ENDS...THUS KEEPING THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION AT NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING MOST OF TODAY...MAYBE BRIEFLY
LEVELING OFF EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RESUMING A DROP TONIGHT.
READINGS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST. THE WIND DROPOFF SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO THE
MINUS 20 AND COLDER ZONE WHICH IS OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THAT...BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MAY GET
CLOSE.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CONUS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING AS MID-LVL HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH
THE DAY.  LOW-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE QUICKLY BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY
AS THIS MID-LVL BAND OF MOISTURE/LIFT CROSSES THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH AN EXCEPTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
NORTHEAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A STOUT UPPER LVL JET WILL PRODUCE
A BAND OF SNOW TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

WARM WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH A RATHER WARM FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD.

A BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL RACE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND DROP TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL. THIS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT SUSTAINED LONG-DURATION COLD
SPELLS...AS SIGNS POINT TO A QUICK REBOUND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY
THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL PULL EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH 15Z ON WEDNESDAY. IFR VISIBILITIES AND
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SNOW. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP AFTER 10Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY WITH
FALLING SNOW ENDING AS THE STRONGER WINDS COME INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-090.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ003.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JM



000
FXUS63 KFSD 260935
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
335 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BACK END OF SNOW SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT DOES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PICK UP FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. THE CURRENT ADVISORY
LOOKS GOOD WITH THIS SECOND SURGE MOVING ACROSS AND THE WINDS DUE TO
PICK UP. HAVE CONSIDERED ADDING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM HON TO
BKX BUT WITH HON HAVING ALMOST NO SNOW SO FAR AND BKX A LITTLE SLOWER
ON THE WIND PICKUP...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT. EVEN BKX HAS
LESS SNOW THAN FSD...WE HAVE AN INCH...AND THE WINDS WILL PICK
UP A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AT HON. WILL KEEP SOME BLOWING SNOW IN THE
FORECAST AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE SECOND SURGE HAS DICTATED MORE
SNOW MENTION AND A LITTLE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THIS STRETCH FROM NOW
THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING...BUT IT WILL STILL MOVE OUT TO THE
SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY LATER IN THE MORNING. SOME SNOW WILL HANG ON IN
THE ADVISORY AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE SOME BLOWING
SNOW IN THAT AREA PAST THE NOON ADVISORY EXPIRATION.

SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR A WHILE OVER THE
AREA WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BUT AN ASSORTMENT OF MID AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BETTER CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FURTHER EAST...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THERE TONIGHT.
THE CLOUD INCREASE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FROM WARM ADVECTION
UPSTAIRS STARTING IN ALREADY. WILL KEEP A FEW FLURRIES FAR SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT TO
ACCOMPANY THE WARM ADVECTION.

THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH SNOW TO BLOW...AND AM
CURRENTLY PROJECTING THESE WINDS TO STAY A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS. FURTHER EAST...THE SLIGHTLY LESS STRONG WINDS PLUS
THE LATER PICKUP SHOULD PREVENT TOO MANY PROBLEMS ONCE THE FALLING
SNOW ENDS...THUS KEEPING THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION AT NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING MOST OF TODAY...MAYBE BRIEFLY
LEVELING OFF EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RESUMING A DROP TONIGHT.
READINGS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST. THE WIND DROPOFF SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO THE
MINUS 20 AND COLDER ZONE WHICH IS OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THAT...BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MAY GET
CLOSE.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CONUS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING AS MID-LVL HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH
THE DAY.  LOW-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE QUICKLY BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY
AS THIS MID-LVL BAND OF MOISTURE/LIFT CROSSES THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH AN EXCEPTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
NORTHEAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A STOUT UPPER LVL JET WILL PRODUCE
A BAND OF SNOW TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

WARM WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH A RATHER WARM FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD.

A BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL RACE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND DROP TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL. THIS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT SUSTAINED LONG-DURATION COLD
SPELLS...AS SIGNS POINT TO A QUICK REBOUND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY
THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL PULL EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH 15Z ON WEDNESDAY. IFR VISIBILITIES AND
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SNOW. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP AFTER 10Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY WITH
FALLING SNOW ENDING AS THE STRONGER WINDS COME INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-090.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ003.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KUNR 260634
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1134 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

WINDS ARE DECREASING ACROSS FAR NWRN SD SO HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FOR WCNTRL SD
FOR THE TIME BEING BUT THAT MAY END UP BEING CANCELLED EARLY AS
WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SNOW IS DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS PRES RISES MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND CDFNT. THE MDT/HEAVY BAND OF SNOW OVER THE BLKHLS
IS DIMINISHING WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE GUSTY MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP ANALYSES INDICATED A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST.
A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS ERN MT INTO NWRN
SD...AIDED BY A 150-KT UPPER JET. SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD AND NERN WY...BUT WITH A DOWNSLOPE HOLE OVER
PARTS OF SWRN SD. AREA WEBCAMS SHOWED AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW OVER
NERN WY...A TRACE OVER NWRN SD...AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE NRN BLKHLS.
A SFC LOW OVER WRN ND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH 2-5MB/3HR PRES RISES AS
IT MOVED SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-35 MPH BEHIND THE
LOW MOVING INTO NWRN SD.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH THU. FOR TNGT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES TO
NERN KS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TO SWRN IA. THIS WILL TAKE MOST OF THE
PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVNG...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF NWRN INTO SCNTRL SD. THE PREVIOUS WIND ADVY
LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NOT CHANGE. BLSN IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE WARM TEMPS AND LIMITED SNOWFALL. A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL SETUP OVER THE WRN CWA SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW GOING
THERE. COLDER AIR ALSO WILL FLOW INTO THE CWA TNGT GIVEN STRONG COLD
ADVECTION.

ON WED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE WRN CWA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS AIDING IN MESOSCALE LIFT ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER JET. DESPITE WEAK UPPER FORCING...THE
LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES SHOULD LEAD TO SNOW
OVER NERN WY INTO WRN SD. THIS WILL SPREAD NEWD WED NGT AS UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES.
SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT A CHANCE
OF FZRA OVER PARTS OF NWRN SD LATE WED NGT INTO THU MRNG...SO HAVE
ADDED THAT TO THE FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SNOW/FREEZING RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING...
LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER NW SD.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE TEMPS...
PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY PUSHING THE WARM FRONT NE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
THE RESULT WILL BE DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING
AND FRIDAY. JUST HOW WARM THE SD PLAINS WILL GET ON THURSDAY
DEPENDS ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT...AS MODELS HAVE A 10-15
DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS THAT AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 30S ACROSS NW SD TO THE MID 50S IN PORTIONS OF NE WY AND SW
SD. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AS A SHALLOW
TROUGH CROSSES SRN CANADA INTO MT/ND. AGAIN HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE
POSITIONING OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE
MORNING...AS TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S...AND THEN SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES
HAVE A 45-50 DEGREE SPREAD FOR THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND ABOUT A
30 DEGREE SPREAD FOR LOWS...SO THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. THEN MODELS SHOW WARMER AIR ADVECTING BACK IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 916 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

WINDS WILL GUST OVER 40KTS AT TIMES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN
SD. -SN WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO WED...ESPECIALLY OVER
NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SWD
ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND THE CDFNT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY ON WED...WITH SOME LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACRS NERN WY
INTO THE NRN BLKHLS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-026-031-032-
     043-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 260634
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1134 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

WINDS ARE DECREASING ACROSS FAR NWRN SD SO HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FOR WCNTRL SD
FOR THE TIME BEING BUT THAT MAY END UP BEING CANCELLED EARLY AS
WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SNOW IS DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS PRES RISES MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND CDFNT. THE MDT/HEAVY BAND OF SNOW OVER THE BLKHLS
IS DIMINISHING WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE GUSTY MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP ANALYSES INDICATED A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST.
A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS ERN MT INTO NWRN
SD...AIDED BY A 150-KT UPPER JET. SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD AND NERN WY...BUT WITH A DOWNSLOPE HOLE OVER
PARTS OF SWRN SD. AREA WEBCAMS SHOWED AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW OVER
NERN WY...A TRACE OVER NWRN SD...AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE NRN BLKHLS.
A SFC LOW OVER WRN ND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH 2-5MB/3HR PRES RISES AS
IT MOVED SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-35 MPH BEHIND THE
LOW MOVING INTO NWRN SD.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH THU. FOR TNGT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES TO
NERN KS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TO SWRN IA. THIS WILL TAKE MOST OF THE
PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVNG...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF NWRN INTO SCNTRL SD. THE PREVIOUS WIND ADVY
LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NOT CHANGE. BLSN IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE WARM TEMPS AND LIMITED SNOWFALL. A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL SETUP OVER THE WRN CWA SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW GOING
THERE. COLDER AIR ALSO WILL FLOW INTO THE CWA TNGT GIVEN STRONG COLD
ADVECTION.

ON WED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE WRN CWA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS AIDING IN MESOSCALE LIFT ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER JET. DESPITE WEAK UPPER FORCING...THE
LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES SHOULD LEAD TO SNOW
OVER NERN WY INTO WRN SD. THIS WILL SPREAD NEWD WED NGT AS UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES.
SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT A CHANCE
OF FZRA OVER PARTS OF NWRN SD LATE WED NGT INTO THU MRNG...SO HAVE
ADDED THAT TO THE FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SNOW/FREEZING RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING...
LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER NW SD.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE TEMPS...
PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY PUSHING THE WARM FRONT NE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
THE RESULT WILL BE DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING
AND FRIDAY. JUST HOW WARM THE SD PLAINS WILL GET ON THURSDAY
DEPENDS ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT...AS MODELS HAVE A 10-15
DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS THAT AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 30S ACROSS NW SD TO THE MID 50S IN PORTIONS OF NE WY AND SW
SD. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AS A SHALLOW
TROUGH CROSSES SRN CANADA INTO MT/ND. AGAIN HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE
POSITIONING OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE
MORNING...AS TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S...AND THEN SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES
HAVE A 45-50 DEGREE SPREAD FOR THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND ABOUT A
30 DEGREE SPREAD FOR LOWS...SO THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. THEN MODELS SHOW WARMER AIR ADVECTING BACK IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 916 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

WINDS WILL GUST OVER 40KTS AT TIMES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN
SD. -SN WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO WED...ESPECIALLY OVER
NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SWD
ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND THE CDFNT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY ON WED...WITH SOME LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACRS NERN WY
INTO THE NRN BLKHLS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-026-031-032-
     043-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON








000
FXUS63 KABR 260524 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1124 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

THE STORM APPEARS TO BE ON SCHEDULE AND MOVING WHERE ITS SUPPOSED
TO...SO CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS OKAY AND WILL NOT ALTER MUCH.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH ABR JUST
HAVING RECENTLY REPORTED LIGHT SNOW. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGHEST ACCUMS STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL AID IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
THE SHORT RANGE/HI RES MODELS IN REGARDS TO SNOW TOTALS IN THE
JAMES VALLEY...WHICH MAKES TOTALS A BIT DIFFICULT HERE. ALL
DEPENDS ON WHERE THE PIVOTING TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE LOW. A FEW
MODELS SHOW IT TAKING PLACE MORE OVER ROBERTS AND TRAVERSE
COUNTIES WHERE OTHERS ARE MORE OVER NORTHERN BROWN AND MARSHALL
COUNTIES. THIS COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE OF ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
POSSIBLY. WILL LEAVE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADDITION FOR BIG STONE AND
TRAVERSE COUNTIES IF HI RES MODELS TREND TOWARDS HITTING THAT AREA
A BIT HARDER. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING. THIS
WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY SIGNIFICANT. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS
SNOWFALL AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY FOR MANY AREAS.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. 925
MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WITH A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF FRESH SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SURFACE TEMPS
WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY. TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
THURSDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD...WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. A WARM AIR
ADVECTION BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE AIR
MASS IS PRETTY DRY INITIALLY...BUT DOES LOOK TO GRADUALLY
SATURATE. FOR NOW LEFT ONLY A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG MID LEVEL WARM AIR PUSH...THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER HOWEVER...SO WILL JUST
MAINTAIN THE SNOW WORDING AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
MIXED PRECIP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MORE SEASONAL...BUT THEY DONT
LAST LONG AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TAKE OVER.

MODELS DO SHOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT KABR/KATY AS SNOW
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT
THEN DISSIPATE BY NOON ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-
     MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 260524 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1124 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

THE STORM APPEARS TO BE ON SCHEDULE AND MOVING WHERE ITS SUPPOSED
TO...SO CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS OKAY AND WILL NOT ALTER MUCH.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH ABR JUST
HAVING RECENTLY REPORTED LIGHT SNOW. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGHEST ACCUMS STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL AID IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
THE SHORT RANGE/HI RES MODELS IN REGARDS TO SNOW TOTALS IN THE
JAMES VALLEY...WHICH MAKES TOTALS A BIT DIFFICULT HERE. ALL
DEPENDS ON WHERE THE PIVOTING TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE LOW. A FEW
MODELS SHOW IT TAKING PLACE MORE OVER ROBERTS AND TRAVERSE
COUNTIES WHERE OTHERS ARE MORE OVER NORTHERN BROWN AND MARSHALL
COUNTIES. THIS COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE OF ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
POSSIBLY. WILL LEAVE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADDITION FOR BIG STONE AND
TRAVERSE COUNTIES IF HI RES MODELS TREND TOWARDS HITTING THAT AREA
A BIT HARDER. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING. THIS
WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY SIGNIFICANT. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS
SNOWFALL AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY FOR MANY AREAS.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. 925
MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WITH A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF FRESH SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SURFACE TEMPS
WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY. TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
THURSDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD...WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. A WARM AIR
ADVECTION BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE AIR
MASS IS PRETTY DRY INITIALLY...BUT DOES LOOK TO GRADUALLY
SATURATE. FOR NOW LEFT ONLY A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG MID LEVEL WARM AIR PUSH...THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER HOWEVER...SO WILL JUST
MAINTAIN THE SNOW WORDING AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
MIXED PRECIP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MORE SEASONAL...BUT THEY DONT
LAST LONG AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TAKE OVER.

MODELS DO SHOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT KABR/KATY AS SNOW
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT
THEN DISSIPATE BY NOON ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-
     MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 260440
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1040 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD
EXPECT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE TIMED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE 1.5 PV ANOMALY WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP ASCENT. THIS REACHES THE THE JAMES VALLEY
AROUND 00Z...I-29 AROUND 03Z...AND HWY 71 IN IA AND MN AROUND 06Z.
THE UPPER WAVE DEEPENS OVER ERN SD AND ERN NEBRASKA SO THAT THE
POSITIVE PV ADVECTION PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF SW MN AND NW IA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
LAST 3 OR 4 HOURS OVER MOST OF SE SD AND MOST OF NW IA...WHERE 1
TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR 6 TO 10 HOURS FROM CANBY DOWN TO SPIRIT LAKE IOWA. WITH
ONLY 1/4 OR 1/2 INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED...THAT WOULD RESULT 3 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW.

THE SECOND ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE LOW TRACK...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.  BUT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND WITH PRESSURE RISES
AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AROUND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. FOR MOST AREAS...THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL AFTER THE SNOW ENDS OR IS ABOUT TO END.
THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL BE LOFTED SUCH
THAT BLOWING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY A FEW WIDE OPEN
LOCATIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM
CANBY MN TO SPIRIT LAKE WHERE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AND WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT THE TIME...THIS WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON. WHILE THERE COULD
BE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON EAST OF
HIGHWAY 59...MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SUCH THAT THE THREAT
FOR BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO DICKINSON COUNTY IOWA. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND SNOW. HOWEVER...ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE STEADY OR FALL MOST OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
IN NW IA WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HELP
TO DIMINISH WINDS. SHOULD SET UP A FAIRLY CHILLY NIGHT...BUT
CHALLENGE WILL BE IN DIAGNOSING POTENTIAL EXTENT FOR CLEARING
SKIES TO MAXIMIZE IMPACT OF THE SNOWFALL FROM TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTATIONS OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUDS IN
THE EAST TO START THE EVENING...AND SHIELD OF HIGHER CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY HANGS UP WITH A FEW LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND INITIATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
MAY KICK UP A COUPLE OF FLURRIES IN THE FAR WEST WHILE TEMPS IN
CLOUD LAYER REMAIN FAVORABLY COLD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
DIP BELOW ZERO THROUGH NORTHERN COUPLE OF TIERS...AND IF CAN
SUPERIMPOSE THE SNOW COVER...CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...COULD
PUSH 10 BELOW OR MORE AROUND BROOKINGS.

THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHERWISE...AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND IMPOSED DRY AIR SLIPS EASTWARD...AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE SLOWLY TRANSLATES NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF EARLY DAY FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE IN THE WEST...BUT WEAKENING OF QG LIFT AND WARMING OF
TEMPS IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SHOULD SPELL AND END TO ANY FLURRY
THREAT. HOWEVER...BY LATE DAY...ADVANCING BAROCLINICITY WILL START
TO FEEL IMPACT OF NEXT WAVE MOVING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. LIFT
FORCING LOOKS TO INCREASE...AND WILL AGAIN SEE A THREAT FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TOWARD KBKX-KMML AREA. OVERALL A FAIRLY COOL DAY AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES STABILIZE AT LOWER LEVELS WITH WARMING
ALOFT...A FAIRLY AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL COMPONENT.

MASSIVELY WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD
TO NON-DIURNAL TRENDS. LEADING EDGE OF WARMING GENERATING ENOUGH
LIFT AND SATURATION TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE EVENING. SUB INVERSION LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE
MOIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DEPTH
IS LIKELY TOO SHALLOW WITH LIFT EXPECTED ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER...
BUT A GREAT DEAL OF LOWER CLOUDS AS WELL AS A FREEZING DRIZZLE
AFTER SNOW CHANCE TAPERS OFF IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT TO SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE SOME
ISSUES TO WARMING TO DEAL WITH INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AS
WELL AS THE EXISTING SNOW COVER...BUT FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE NUMBERS
SUGGEST GRADIENT FROM MID 30S WHERE GREATER SNOWFALL OCCURS
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S LOWER BRULE AREAS.

SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE BEGIN TO EVOLVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
WAVE EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG ZONAL FLOW...DRIVING A SHARP ARCTIC
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. TIMING IS PRETTY SUSPECT AT THIS POINT...WHICH
LEAD TO POTENTIAL LARGE ERRORS IN TEMPS AS SOME RUNS TAKE FRONT
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA BEFORE 12Z SAT...WHILE OTHERS GIVE AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA OR DAY IN THE WARMER AIR BEFORE DRIVING
SOUTHWARD. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT STANDARD DEVIATIONS THAT
FAVOR SIDING TOWARD THE MEANS...WHICH ARE MUCH COOLER THAN
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. HAVE BLENDED IN HEAVIER WEIGHT TO ENSEMBLE
MEANS FOR SATURDAY.

IF ANY PERIOD OF THE LONGER RANGE WAS TO CONTAIN A PRECIPITATION
THREAT...IT WOULD LIKELY BE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...AS SHARP MID LEVEL FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD AND ZONAL JET
ENTRANCE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COLDEST OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
COLD SURFACE RIDGE EXPANDS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL SURVIVE THE MELT ON
FRIDAY...HAVE NOT GONE TOO EXTREME WITH COOLING UNDER RIDGE MONDAY
MORNING. AS STRONGLY AS CONDITIONS COOL...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATE
STRONG RIDGE BUILDING EARLY WEEK...WITH TEMPS ALOFT OUTPACING THE
WARMING AT LOW LEVELS. BY TUESDAY...STOUT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
GRADIENT MAY FINALLY ABLE TO DISPLACE THE COLD STABLE POOL...AND
TREND TOWARD EVEN WARMER IS WOULD SEEM TO BE IN THE CARDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL PULL EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH 15Z ON WEDNESDAY. IFR VISIBILITIES AND
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SNOW. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP AFTER 10Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY WITH
FALLING SNOW ENDING AS THE STRONGER WINDS COME INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-
     080-081-090.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ003.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM



000
FXUS63 KFSD 260440
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1040 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD
EXPECT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE TIMED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE 1.5 PV ANOMALY WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP ASCENT. THIS REACHES THE THE JAMES VALLEY
AROUND 00Z...I-29 AROUND 03Z...AND HWY 71 IN IA AND MN AROUND 06Z.
THE UPPER WAVE DEEPENS OVER ERN SD AND ERN NEBRASKA SO THAT THE
POSITIVE PV ADVECTION PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF SW MN AND NW IA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
LAST 3 OR 4 HOURS OVER MOST OF SE SD AND MOST OF NW IA...WHERE 1
TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR 6 TO 10 HOURS FROM CANBY DOWN TO SPIRIT LAKE IOWA. WITH
ONLY 1/4 OR 1/2 INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED...THAT WOULD RESULT 3 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW.

THE SECOND ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE LOW TRACK...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.  BUT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND WITH PRESSURE RISES
AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AROUND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. FOR MOST AREAS...THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL AFTER THE SNOW ENDS OR IS ABOUT TO END.
THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL BE LOFTED SUCH
THAT BLOWING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY A FEW WIDE OPEN
LOCATIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM
CANBY MN TO SPIRIT LAKE WHERE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AND WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT THE TIME...THIS WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON. WHILE THERE COULD
BE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON EAST OF
HIGHWAY 59...MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SUCH THAT THE THREAT
FOR BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO DICKINSON COUNTY IOWA. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND SNOW. HOWEVER...ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE STEADY OR FALL MOST OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
IN NW IA WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HELP
TO DIMINISH WINDS. SHOULD SET UP A FAIRLY CHILLY NIGHT...BUT
CHALLENGE WILL BE IN DIAGNOSING POTENTIAL EXTENT FOR CLEARING
SKIES TO MAXIMIZE IMPACT OF THE SNOWFALL FROM TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTATIONS OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUDS IN
THE EAST TO START THE EVENING...AND SHIELD OF HIGHER CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY HANGS UP WITH A FEW LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND INITIATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
MAY KICK UP A COUPLE OF FLURRIES IN THE FAR WEST WHILE TEMPS IN
CLOUD LAYER REMAIN FAVORABLY COLD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
DIP BELOW ZERO THROUGH NORTHERN COUPLE OF TIERS...AND IF CAN
SUPERIMPOSE THE SNOW COVER...CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...COULD
PUSH 10 BELOW OR MORE AROUND BROOKINGS.

THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHERWISE...AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND IMPOSED DRY AIR SLIPS EASTWARD...AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE SLOWLY TRANSLATES NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF EARLY DAY FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE IN THE WEST...BUT WEAKENING OF QG LIFT AND WARMING OF
TEMPS IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SHOULD SPELL AND END TO ANY FLURRY
THREAT. HOWEVER...BY LATE DAY...ADVANCING BAROCLINICITY WILL START
TO FEEL IMPACT OF NEXT WAVE MOVING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. LIFT
FORCING LOOKS TO INCREASE...AND WILL AGAIN SEE A THREAT FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TOWARD KBKX-KMML AREA. OVERALL A FAIRLY COOL DAY AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES STABILIZE AT LOWER LEVELS WITH WARMING
ALOFT...A FAIRLY AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL COMPONENT.

MASSIVELY WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD
TO NON-DIURNAL TRENDS. LEADING EDGE OF WARMING GENERATING ENOUGH
LIFT AND SATURATION TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE EVENING. SUB INVERSION LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE
MOIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DEPTH
IS LIKELY TOO SHALLOW WITH LIFT EXPECTED ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER...
BUT A GREAT DEAL OF LOWER CLOUDS AS WELL AS A FREEZING DRIZZLE
AFTER SNOW CHANCE TAPERS OFF IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT TO SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE SOME
ISSUES TO WARMING TO DEAL WITH INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AS
WELL AS THE EXISTING SNOW COVER...BUT FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE NUMBERS
SUGGEST GRADIENT FROM MID 30S WHERE GREATER SNOWFALL OCCURS
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S LOWER BRULE AREAS.

SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE BEGIN TO EVOLVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
WAVE EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG ZONAL FLOW...DRIVING A SHARP ARCTIC
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. TIMING IS PRETTY SUSPECT AT THIS POINT...WHICH
LEAD TO POTENTIAL LARGE ERRORS IN TEMPS AS SOME RUNS TAKE FRONT
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA BEFORE 12Z SAT...WHILE OTHERS GIVE AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA OR DAY IN THE WARMER AIR BEFORE DRIVING
SOUTHWARD. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT STANDARD DEVIATIONS THAT
FAVOR SIDING TOWARD THE MEANS...WHICH ARE MUCH COOLER THAN
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. HAVE BLENDED IN HEAVIER WEIGHT TO ENSEMBLE
MEANS FOR SATURDAY.

IF ANY PERIOD OF THE LONGER RANGE WAS TO CONTAIN A PRECIPITATION
THREAT...IT WOULD LIKELY BE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...AS SHARP MID LEVEL FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD AND ZONAL JET
ENTRANCE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COLDEST OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
COLD SURFACE RIDGE EXPANDS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL SURVIVE THE MELT ON
FRIDAY...HAVE NOT GONE TOO EXTREME WITH COOLING UNDER RIDGE MONDAY
MORNING. AS STRONGLY AS CONDITIONS COOL...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATE
STRONG RIDGE BUILDING EARLY WEEK...WITH TEMPS ALOFT OUTPACING THE
WARMING AT LOW LEVELS. BY TUESDAY...STOUT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
GRADIENT MAY FINALLY ABLE TO DISPLACE THE COLD STABLE POOL...AND
TREND TOWARD EVEN WARMER IS WOULD SEEM TO BE IN THE CARDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL PULL EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH 15Z ON WEDNESDAY. IFR VISIBILITIES AND
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SNOW. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP AFTER 10Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY WITH
FALLING SNOW ENDING AS THE STRONGER WINDS COME INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-
     080-081-090.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ003.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 260440
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1040 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD
EXPECT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE TIMED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE 1.5 PV ANOMALY WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP ASCENT. THIS REACHES THE THE JAMES VALLEY
AROUND 00Z...I-29 AROUND 03Z...AND HWY 71 IN IA AND MN AROUND 06Z.
THE UPPER WAVE DEEPENS OVER ERN SD AND ERN NEBRASKA SO THAT THE
POSITIVE PV ADVECTION PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF SW MN AND NW IA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
LAST 3 OR 4 HOURS OVER MOST OF SE SD AND MOST OF NW IA...WHERE 1
TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR 6 TO 10 HOURS FROM CANBY DOWN TO SPIRIT LAKE IOWA. WITH
ONLY 1/4 OR 1/2 INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED...THAT WOULD RESULT 3 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW.

THE SECOND ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE LOW TRACK...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.  BUT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND WITH PRESSURE RISES
AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AROUND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. FOR MOST AREAS...THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL AFTER THE SNOW ENDS OR IS ABOUT TO END.
THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL BE LOFTED SUCH
THAT BLOWING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY A FEW WIDE OPEN
LOCATIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM
CANBY MN TO SPIRIT LAKE WHERE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AND WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT THE TIME...THIS WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON. WHILE THERE COULD
BE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON EAST OF
HIGHWAY 59...MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SUCH THAT THE THREAT
FOR BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO DICKINSON COUNTY IOWA. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND SNOW. HOWEVER...ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE STEADY OR FALL MOST OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
IN NW IA WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HELP
TO DIMINISH WINDS. SHOULD SET UP A FAIRLY CHILLY NIGHT...BUT
CHALLENGE WILL BE IN DIAGNOSING POTENTIAL EXTENT FOR CLEARING
SKIES TO MAXIMIZE IMPACT OF THE SNOWFALL FROM TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTATIONS OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUDS IN
THE EAST TO START THE EVENING...AND SHIELD OF HIGHER CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY HANGS UP WITH A FEW LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND INITIATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
MAY KICK UP A COUPLE OF FLURRIES IN THE FAR WEST WHILE TEMPS IN
CLOUD LAYER REMAIN FAVORABLY COLD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
DIP BELOW ZERO THROUGH NORTHERN COUPLE OF TIERS...AND IF CAN
SUPERIMPOSE THE SNOW COVER...CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...COULD
PUSH 10 BELOW OR MORE AROUND BROOKINGS.

THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHERWISE...AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND IMPOSED DRY AIR SLIPS EASTWARD...AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE SLOWLY TRANSLATES NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF EARLY DAY FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE IN THE WEST...BUT WEAKENING OF QG LIFT AND WARMING OF
TEMPS IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SHOULD SPELL AND END TO ANY FLURRY
THREAT. HOWEVER...BY LATE DAY...ADVANCING BAROCLINICITY WILL START
TO FEEL IMPACT OF NEXT WAVE MOVING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. LIFT
FORCING LOOKS TO INCREASE...AND WILL AGAIN SEE A THREAT FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TOWARD KBKX-KMML AREA. OVERALL A FAIRLY COOL DAY AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES STABILIZE AT LOWER LEVELS WITH WARMING
ALOFT...A FAIRLY AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL COMPONENT.

MASSIVELY WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD
TO NON-DIURNAL TRENDS. LEADING EDGE OF WARMING GENERATING ENOUGH
LIFT AND SATURATION TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE EVENING. SUB INVERSION LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE
MOIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DEPTH
IS LIKELY TOO SHALLOW WITH LIFT EXPECTED ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER...
BUT A GREAT DEAL OF LOWER CLOUDS AS WELL AS A FREEZING DRIZZLE
AFTER SNOW CHANCE TAPERS OFF IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT TO SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE SOME
ISSUES TO WARMING TO DEAL WITH INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AS
WELL AS THE EXISTING SNOW COVER...BUT FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE NUMBERS
SUGGEST GRADIENT FROM MID 30S WHERE GREATER SNOWFALL OCCURS
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S LOWER BRULE AREAS.

SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE BEGIN TO EVOLVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
WAVE EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG ZONAL FLOW...DRIVING A SHARP ARCTIC
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. TIMING IS PRETTY SUSPECT AT THIS POINT...WHICH
LEAD TO POTENTIAL LARGE ERRORS IN TEMPS AS SOME RUNS TAKE FRONT
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA BEFORE 12Z SAT...WHILE OTHERS GIVE AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA OR DAY IN THE WARMER AIR BEFORE DRIVING
SOUTHWARD. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT STANDARD DEVIATIONS THAT
FAVOR SIDING TOWARD THE MEANS...WHICH ARE MUCH COOLER THAN
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. HAVE BLENDED IN HEAVIER WEIGHT TO ENSEMBLE
MEANS FOR SATURDAY.

IF ANY PERIOD OF THE LONGER RANGE WAS TO CONTAIN A PRECIPITATION
THREAT...IT WOULD LIKELY BE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...AS SHARP MID LEVEL FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD AND ZONAL JET
ENTRANCE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COLDEST OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
COLD SURFACE RIDGE EXPANDS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL SURVIVE THE MELT ON
FRIDAY...HAVE NOT GONE TOO EXTREME WITH COOLING UNDER RIDGE MONDAY
MORNING. AS STRONGLY AS CONDITIONS COOL...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATE
STRONG RIDGE BUILDING EARLY WEEK...WITH TEMPS ALOFT OUTPACING THE
WARMING AT LOW LEVELS. BY TUESDAY...STOUT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
GRADIENT MAY FINALLY ABLE TO DISPLACE THE COLD STABLE POOL...AND
TREND TOWARD EVEN WARMER IS WOULD SEEM TO BE IN THE CARDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL PULL EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH 15Z ON WEDNESDAY. IFR VISIBILITIES AND
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SNOW. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP AFTER 10Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY WITH
FALLING SNOW ENDING AS THE STRONGER WINDS COME INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-
     080-081-090.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ003.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 260440
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1040 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD
EXPECT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE TIMED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE 1.5 PV ANOMALY WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP ASCENT. THIS REACHES THE THE JAMES VALLEY
AROUND 00Z...I-29 AROUND 03Z...AND HWY 71 IN IA AND MN AROUND 06Z.
THE UPPER WAVE DEEPENS OVER ERN SD AND ERN NEBRASKA SO THAT THE
POSITIVE PV ADVECTION PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF SW MN AND NW IA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
LAST 3 OR 4 HOURS OVER MOST OF SE SD AND MOST OF NW IA...WHERE 1
TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR 6 TO 10 HOURS FROM CANBY DOWN TO SPIRIT LAKE IOWA. WITH
ONLY 1/4 OR 1/2 INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED...THAT WOULD RESULT 3 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW.

THE SECOND ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE LOW TRACK...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.  BUT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND WITH PRESSURE RISES
AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AROUND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. FOR MOST AREAS...THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL AFTER THE SNOW ENDS OR IS ABOUT TO END.
THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL BE LOFTED SUCH
THAT BLOWING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY A FEW WIDE OPEN
LOCATIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM
CANBY MN TO SPIRIT LAKE WHERE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AND WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT THE TIME...THIS WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON. WHILE THERE COULD
BE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON EAST OF
HIGHWAY 59...MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SUCH THAT THE THREAT
FOR BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO DICKINSON COUNTY IOWA. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND SNOW. HOWEVER...ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE STEADY OR FALL MOST OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
IN NW IA WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HELP
TO DIMINISH WINDS. SHOULD SET UP A FAIRLY CHILLY NIGHT...BUT
CHALLENGE WILL BE IN DIAGNOSING POTENTIAL EXTENT FOR CLEARING
SKIES TO MAXIMIZE IMPACT OF THE SNOWFALL FROM TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTATIONS OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUDS IN
THE EAST TO START THE EVENING...AND SHIELD OF HIGHER CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY HANGS UP WITH A FEW LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND INITIATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
MAY KICK UP A COUPLE OF FLURRIES IN THE FAR WEST WHILE TEMPS IN
CLOUD LAYER REMAIN FAVORABLY COLD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
DIP BELOW ZERO THROUGH NORTHERN COUPLE OF TIERS...AND IF CAN
SUPERIMPOSE THE SNOW COVER...CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...COULD
PUSH 10 BELOW OR MORE AROUND BROOKINGS.

THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHERWISE...AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND IMPOSED DRY AIR SLIPS EASTWARD...AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE SLOWLY TRANSLATES NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF EARLY DAY FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE IN THE WEST...BUT WEAKENING OF QG LIFT AND WARMING OF
TEMPS IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SHOULD SPELL AND END TO ANY FLURRY
THREAT. HOWEVER...BY LATE DAY...ADVANCING BAROCLINICITY WILL START
TO FEEL IMPACT OF NEXT WAVE MOVING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. LIFT
FORCING LOOKS TO INCREASE...AND WILL AGAIN SEE A THREAT FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TOWARD KBKX-KMML AREA. OVERALL A FAIRLY COOL DAY AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES STABILIZE AT LOWER LEVELS WITH WARMING
ALOFT...A FAIRLY AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL COMPONENT.

MASSIVELY WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD
TO NON-DIURNAL TRENDS. LEADING EDGE OF WARMING GENERATING ENOUGH
LIFT AND SATURATION TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE EVENING. SUB INVERSION LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE
MOIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DEPTH
IS LIKELY TOO SHALLOW WITH LIFT EXPECTED ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER...
BUT A GREAT DEAL OF LOWER CLOUDS AS WELL AS A FREEZING DRIZZLE
AFTER SNOW CHANCE TAPERS OFF IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT TO SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE SOME
ISSUES TO WARMING TO DEAL WITH INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AS
WELL AS THE EXISTING SNOW COVER...BUT FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE NUMBERS
SUGGEST GRADIENT FROM MID 30S WHERE GREATER SNOWFALL OCCURS
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S LOWER BRULE AREAS.

SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE BEGIN TO EVOLVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
WAVE EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG ZONAL FLOW...DRIVING A SHARP ARCTIC
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. TIMING IS PRETTY SUSPECT AT THIS POINT...WHICH
LEAD TO POTENTIAL LARGE ERRORS IN TEMPS AS SOME RUNS TAKE FRONT
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA BEFORE 12Z SAT...WHILE OTHERS GIVE AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA OR DAY IN THE WARMER AIR BEFORE DRIVING
SOUTHWARD. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT STANDARD DEVIATIONS THAT
FAVOR SIDING TOWARD THE MEANS...WHICH ARE MUCH COOLER THAN
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. HAVE BLENDED IN HEAVIER WEIGHT TO ENSEMBLE
MEANS FOR SATURDAY.

IF ANY PERIOD OF THE LONGER RANGE WAS TO CONTAIN A PRECIPITATION
THREAT...IT WOULD LIKELY BE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...AS SHARP MID LEVEL FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD AND ZONAL JET
ENTRANCE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COLDEST OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
COLD SURFACE RIDGE EXPANDS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL SURVIVE THE MELT ON
FRIDAY...HAVE NOT GONE TOO EXTREME WITH COOLING UNDER RIDGE MONDAY
MORNING. AS STRONGLY AS CONDITIONS COOL...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATE
STRONG RIDGE BUILDING EARLY WEEK...WITH TEMPS ALOFT OUTPACING THE
WARMING AT LOW LEVELS. BY TUESDAY...STOUT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
GRADIENT MAY FINALLY ABLE TO DISPLACE THE COLD STABLE POOL...AND
TREND TOWARD EVEN WARMER IS WOULD SEEM TO BE IN THE CARDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL PULL EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH 15Z ON WEDNESDAY. IFR VISIBILITIES AND
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SNOW. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP AFTER 10Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY WITH
FALLING SNOW ENDING AS THE STRONGER WINDS COME INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-
     080-081-090.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ003.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 260440
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1040 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD
EXPECT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE TIMED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE 1.5 PV ANOMALY WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP ASCENT. THIS REACHES THE THE JAMES VALLEY
AROUND 00Z...I-29 AROUND 03Z...AND HWY 71 IN IA AND MN AROUND 06Z.
THE UPPER WAVE DEEPENS OVER ERN SD AND ERN NEBRASKA SO THAT THE
POSITIVE PV ADVECTION PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF SW MN AND NW IA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
LAST 3 OR 4 HOURS OVER MOST OF SE SD AND MOST OF NW IA...WHERE 1
TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR 6 TO 10 HOURS FROM CANBY DOWN TO SPIRIT LAKE IOWA. WITH
ONLY 1/4 OR 1/2 INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED...THAT WOULD RESULT 3 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW.

THE SECOND ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE LOW TRACK...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.  BUT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND WITH PRESSURE RISES
AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AROUND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. FOR MOST AREAS...THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL AFTER THE SNOW ENDS OR IS ABOUT TO END.
THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL BE LOFTED SUCH
THAT BLOWING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY A FEW WIDE OPEN
LOCATIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM
CANBY MN TO SPIRIT LAKE WHERE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AND WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT THE TIME...THIS WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON. WHILE THERE COULD
BE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON EAST OF
HIGHWAY 59...MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SUCH THAT THE THREAT
FOR BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO DICKINSON COUNTY IOWA. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND SNOW. HOWEVER...ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE STEADY OR FALL MOST OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
IN NW IA WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HELP
TO DIMINISH WINDS. SHOULD SET UP A FAIRLY CHILLY NIGHT...BUT
CHALLENGE WILL BE IN DIAGNOSING POTENTIAL EXTENT FOR CLEARING
SKIES TO MAXIMIZE IMPACT OF THE SNOWFALL FROM TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTATIONS OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUDS IN
THE EAST TO START THE EVENING...AND SHIELD OF HIGHER CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY HANGS UP WITH A FEW LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND INITIATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
MAY KICK UP A COUPLE OF FLURRIES IN THE FAR WEST WHILE TEMPS IN
CLOUD LAYER REMAIN FAVORABLY COLD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
DIP BELOW ZERO THROUGH NORTHERN COUPLE OF TIERS...AND IF CAN
SUPERIMPOSE THE SNOW COVER...CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...COULD
PUSH 10 BELOW OR MORE AROUND BROOKINGS.

THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHERWISE...AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND IMPOSED DRY AIR SLIPS EASTWARD...AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE SLOWLY TRANSLATES NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF EARLY DAY FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE IN THE WEST...BUT WEAKENING OF QG LIFT AND WARMING OF
TEMPS IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SHOULD SPELL AND END TO ANY FLURRY
THREAT. HOWEVER...BY LATE DAY...ADVANCING BAROCLINICITY WILL START
TO FEEL IMPACT OF NEXT WAVE MOVING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. LIFT
FORCING LOOKS TO INCREASE...AND WILL AGAIN SEE A THREAT FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TOWARD KBKX-KMML AREA. OVERALL A FAIRLY COOL DAY AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES STABILIZE AT LOWER LEVELS WITH WARMING
ALOFT...A FAIRLY AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL COMPONENT.

MASSIVELY WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD
TO NON-DIURNAL TRENDS. LEADING EDGE OF WARMING GENERATING ENOUGH
LIFT AND SATURATION TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE EVENING. SUB INVERSION LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE
MOIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DEPTH
IS LIKELY TOO SHALLOW WITH LIFT EXPECTED ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER...
BUT A GREAT DEAL OF LOWER CLOUDS AS WELL AS A FREEZING DRIZZLE
AFTER SNOW CHANCE TAPERS OFF IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT TO SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE SOME
ISSUES TO WARMING TO DEAL WITH INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AS
WELL AS THE EXISTING SNOW COVER...BUT FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE NUMBERS
SUGGEST GRADIENT FROM MID 30S WHERE GREATER SNOWFALL OCCURS
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S LOWER BRULE AREAS.

SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE BEGIN TO EVOLVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
WAVE EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG ZONAL FLOW...DRIVING A SHARP ARCTIC
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. TIMING IS PRETTY SUSPECT AT THIS POINT...WHICH
LEAD TO POTENTIAL LARGE ERRORS IN TEMPS AS SOME RUNS TAKE FRONT
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA BEFORE 12Z SAT...WHILE OTHERS GIVE AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA OR DAY IN THE WARMER AIR BEFORE DRIVING
SOUTHWARD. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT STANDARD DEVIATIONS THAT
FAVOR SIDING TOWARD THE MEANS...WHICH ARE MUCH COOLER THAN
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. HAVE BLENDED IN HEAVIER WEIGHT TO ENSEMBLE
MEANS FOR SATURDAY.

IF ANY PERIOD OF THE LONGER RANGE WAS TO CONTAIN A PRECIPITATION
THREAT...IT WOULD LIKELY BE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...AS SHARP MID LEVEL FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD AND ZONAL JET
ENTRANCE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COLDEST OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
COLD SURFACE RIDGE EXPANDS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL SURVIVE THE MELT ON
FRIDAY...HAVE NOT GONE TOO EXTREME WITH COOLING UNDER RIDGE MONDAY
MORNING. AS STRONGLY AS CONDITIONS COOL...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATE
STRONG RIDGE BUILDING EARLY WEEK...WITH TEMPS ALOFT OUTPACING THE
WARMING AT LOW LEVELS. BY TUESDAY...STOUT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
GRADIENT MAY FINALLY ABLE TO DISPLACE THE COLD STABLE POOL...AND
TREND TOWARD EVEN WARMER IS WOULD SEEM TO BE IN THE CARDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL PULL EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH 15Z ON WEDNESDAY. IFR VISIBILITIES AND
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SNOW. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP AFTER 10Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY WITH
FALLING SNOW ENDING AS THE STRONGER WINDS COME INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-
     080-081-090.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ003.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 260440
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1040 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD
EXPECT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE TIMED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE 1.5 PV ANOMALY WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP ASCENT. THIS REACHES THE THE JAMES VALLEY
AROUND 00Z...I-29 AROUND 03Z...AND HWY 71 IN IA AND MN AROUND 06Z.
THE UPPER WAVE DEEPENS OVER ERN SD AND ERN NEBRASKA SO THAT THE
POSITIVE PV ADVECTION PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF SW MN AND NW IA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
LAST 3 OR 4 HOURS OVER MOST OF SE SD AND MOST OF NW IA...WHERE 1
TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR 6 TO 10 HOURS FROM CANBY DOWN TO SPIRIT LAKE IOWA. WITH
ONLY 1/4 OR 1/2 INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED...THAT WOULD RESULT 3 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW.

THE SECOND ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE LOW TRACK...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.  BUT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND WITH PRESSURE RISES
AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AROUND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. FOR MOST AREAS...THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL AFTER THE SNOW ENDS OR IS ABOUT TO END.
THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL BE LOFTED SUCH
THAT BLOWING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY A FEW WIDE OPEN
LOCATIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM
CANBY MN TO SPIRIT LAKE WHERE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AND WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT THE TIME...THIS WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON. WHILE THERE COULD
BE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON EAST OF
HIGHWAY 59...MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SUCH THAT THE THREAT
FOR BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO DICKINSON COUNTY IOWA. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND SNOW. HOWEVER...ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE STEADY OR FALL MOST OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
IN NW IA WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HELP
TO DIMINISH WINDS. SHOULD SET UP A FAIRLY CHILLY NIGHT...BUT
CHALLENGE WILL BE IN DIAGNOSING POTENTIAL EXTENT FOR CLEARING
SKIES TO MAXIMIZE IMPACT OF THE SNOWFALL FROM TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTATIONS OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUDS IN
THE EAST TO START THE EVENING...AND SHIELD OF HIGHER CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY HANGS UP WITH A FEW LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND INITIATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
MAY KICK UP A COUPLE OF FLURRIES IN THE FAR WEST WHILE TEMPS IN
CLOUD LAYER REMAIN FAVORABLY COLD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
DIP BELOW ZERO THROUGH NORTHERN COUPLE OF TIERS...AND IF CAN
SUPERIMPOSE THE SNOW COVER...CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...COULD
PUSH 10 BELOW OR MORE AROUND BROOKINGS.

THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHERWISE...AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND IMPOSED DRY AIR SLIPS EASTWARD...AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE SLOWLY TRANSLATES NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF EARLY DAY FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE IN THE WEST...BUT WEAKENING OF QG LIFT AND WARMING OF
TEMPS IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SHOULD SPELL AND END TO ANY FLURRY
THREAT. HOWEVER...BY LATE DAY...ADVANCING BAROCLINICITY WILL START
TO FEEL IMPACT OF NEXT WAVE MOVING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. LIFT
FORCING LOOKS TO INCREASE...AND WILL AGAIN SEE A THREAT FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TOWARD KBKX-KMML AREA. OVERALL A FAIRLY COOL DAY AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES STABILIZE AT LOWER LEVELS WITH WARMING
ALOFT...A FAIRLY AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL COMPONENT.

MASSIVELY WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD
TO NON-DIURNAL TRENDS. LEADING EDGE OF WARMING GENERATING ENOUGH
LIFT AND SATURATION TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE EVENING. SUB INVERSION LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE
MOIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DEPTH
IS LIKELY TOO SHALLOW WITH LIFT EXPECTED ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER...
BUT A GREAT DEAL OF LOWER CLOUDS AS WELL AS A FREEZING DRIZZLE
AFTER SNOW CHANCE TAPERS OFF IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT TO SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE SOME
ISSUES TO WARMING TO DEAL WITH INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AS
WELL AS THE EXISTING SNOW COVER...BUT FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE NUMBERS
SUGGEST GRADIENT FROM MID 30S WHERE GREATER SNOWFALL OCCURS
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S LOWER BRULE AREAS.

SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE BEGIN TO EVOLVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
WAVE EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG ZONAL FLOW...DRIVING A SHARP ARCTIC
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. TIMING IS PRETTY SUSPECT AT THIS POINT...WHICH
LEAD TO POTENTIAL LARGE ERRORS IN TEMPS AS SOME RUNS TAKE FRONT
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA BEFORE 12Z SAT...WHILE OTHERS GIVE AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA OR DAY IN THE WARMER AIR BEFORE DRIVING
SOUTHWARD. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT STANDARD DEVIATIONS THAT
FAVOR SIDING TOWARD THE MEANS...WHICH ARE MUCH COOLER THAN
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. HAVE BLENDED IN HEAVIER WEIGHT TO ENSEMBLE
MEANS FOR SATURDAY.

IF ANY PERIOD OF THE LONGER RANGE WAS TO CONTAIN A PRECIPITATION
THREAT...IT WOULD LIKELY BE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...AS SHARP MID LEVEL FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD AND ZONAL JET
ENTRANCE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COLDEST OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
COLD SURFACE RIDGE EXPANDS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL SURVIVE THE MELT ON
FRIDAY...HAVE NOT GONE TOO EXTREME WITH COOLING UNDER RIDGE MONDAY
MORNING. AS STRONGLY AS CONDITIONS COOL...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATE
STRONG RIDGE BUILDING EARLY WEEK...WITH TEMPS ALOFT OUTPACING THE
WARMING AT LOW LEVELS. BY TUESDAY...STOUT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
GRADIENT MAY FINALLY ABLE TO DISPLACE THE COLD STABLE POOL...AND
TREND TOWARD EVEN WARMER IS WOULD SEEM TO BE IN THE CARDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL PULL EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH 15Z ON WEDNESDAY. IFR VISIBILITIES AND
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SNOW. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP AFTER 10Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY WITH
FALLING SNOW ENDING AS THE STRONGER WINDS COME INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-
     080-081-090.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ003.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KUNR 260421
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
921 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SNOW IS DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS PRES RISES MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND CDFNT. THE MDT/HEAVY BAND OF SNOW OVER THE BLKHLS
IS DIMINISHING WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE GUSTY MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP ANALYSES INDICATED A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST.
A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS ERN MT INTO NWRN
SD...AIDED BY A 150-KT UPPER JET. SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD AND NERN WY...BUT WITH A DOWNSLOPE HOLE OVER
PARTS OF SWRN SD. AREA WEBCAMS SHOWED AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW OVER
NERN WY...A TRACE OVER NWRN SD...AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE NRN BLKHLS.
A SFC LOW OVER WRN ND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH 2-5MB/3HR PRES RISES AS
IT MOVED SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-35 MPH BEHIND THE
LOW MOVING INTO NWRN SD.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH THU. FOR TNGT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES TO
NERN KS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TO SWRN IA. THIS WILL TAKE MOST OF THE
PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVNG...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF NWRN INTO SCNTRL SD. THE PREVIOUS WIND ADVY
LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NOT CHANGE. BLSN IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE WARM TEMPS AND LIMITED SNOWFALL. A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL SETUP OVER THE WRN CWA SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW GOING
THERE. COLDER AIR ALSO WILL FLOW INTO THE CWA TNGT GIVEN STRONG COLD
ADVECTION.

ON WED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE WRN CWA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS AIDING IN MESOSCALE LIFT ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER JET. DESPITE WEAK UPPER FORCING...THE
LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES SHOULD LEAD TO SNOW
OVER NERN WY INTO WRN SD. THIS WILL SPREAD NEWD WED NGT AS UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES.
SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT A CHANCE
OF FZRA OVER PARTS OF NWRN SD LATE WED NGT INTO THU MRNG...SO HAVE
ADDED THAT TO THE FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SNOW/FREEZING RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING...
LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER NW SD.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE TEMPS...
PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY PUSHING THE WARM FRONT NE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
THE RESULT WILL BE DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING
AND FRIDAY. JUST HOW WARM THE SD PLAINS WILL GET ON THURSDAY
DEPENDS ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT...AS MODELS HAVE A 10-15
DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS THAT AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 30S ACROSS NW SD TO THE MID 50S IN PORTIONS OF NE WY AND SW
SD. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AS A SHALLOW
TROUGH CROSSES SRN CANADA INTO MT/ND. AGAIN HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE
POSITIONING OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE
MORNING...AS TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S...AND THEN SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES
HAVE A 45-50 DEGREE SPREAD FOR THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND ABOUT A
30 DEGREE SPREAD FOR LOWS...SO THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. THEN MODELS SHOW WARMER AIR ADVECTING BACK IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 916 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

WINDS WILL GUST OVER 40KTS AT TIMES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN
SD. -SN WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO WED...ESPECIALLY OVER
NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SWD
ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND THE CDFNT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY ON WED...WITH SOME LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACRS NERN WY
INTO THE NRN BLKHLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-025-026-031-
     032-043-072-073.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 260421
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
921 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SNOW IS DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS PRES RISES MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND CDFNT. THE MDT/HEAVY BAND OF SNOW OVER THE BLKHLS
IS DIMINISHING WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE GUSTY MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP ANALYSES INDICATED A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST.
A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS ERN MT INTO NWRN
SD...AIDED BY A 150-KT UPPER JET. SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD AND NERN WY...BUT WITH A DOWNSLOPE HOLE OVER
PARTS OF SWRN SD. AREA WEBCAMS SHOWED AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW OVER
NERN WY...A TRACE OVER NWRN SD...AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE NRN BLKHLS.
A SFC LOW OVER WRN ND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH 2-5MB/3HR PRES RISES AS
IT MOVED SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-35 MPH BEHIND THE
LOW MOVING INTO NWRN SD.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH THU. FOR TNGT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES TO
NERN KS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TO SWRN IA. THIS WILL TAKE MOST OF THE
PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVNG...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF NWRN INTO SCNTRL SD. THE PREVIOUS WIND ADVY
LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NOT CHANGE. BLSN IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE WARM TEMPS AND LIMITED SNOWFALL. A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL SETUP OVER THE WRN CWA SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW GOING
THERE. COLDER AIR ALSO WILL FLOW INTO THE CWA TNGT GIVEN STRONG COLD
ADVECTION.

ON WED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE WRN CWA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS AIDING IN MESOSCALE LIFT ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER JET. DESPITE WEAK UPPER FORCING...THE
LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES SHOULD LEAD TO SNOW
OVER NERN WY INTO WRN SD. THIS WILL SPREAD NEWD WED NGT AS UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES.
SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT A CHANCE
OF FZRA OVER PARTS OF NWRN SD LATE WED NGT INTO THU MRNG...SO HAVE
ADDED THAT TO THE FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SNOW/FREEZING RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING...
LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER NW SD.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE TEMPS...
PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY PUSHING THE WARM FRONT NE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
THE RESULT WILL BE DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING
AND FRIDAY. JUST HOW WARM THE SD PLAINS WILL GET ON THURSDAY
DEPENDS ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT...AS MODELS HAVE A 10-15
DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS THAT AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 30S ACROSS NW SD TO THE MID 50S IN PORTIONS OF NE WY AND SW
SD. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AS A SHALLOW
TROUGH CROSSES SRN CANADA INTO MT/ND. AGAIN HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE
POSITIONING OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE
MORNING...AS TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S...AND THEN SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES
HAVE A 45-50 DEGREE SPREAD FOR THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND ABOUT A
30 DEGREE SPREAD FOR LOWS...SO THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. THEN MODELS SHOW WARMER AIR ADVECTING BACK IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 916 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

WINDS WILL GUST OVER 40KTS AT TIMES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN
SD. -SN WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO WED...ESPECIALLY OVER
NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SWD
ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND THE CDFNT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY ON WED...WITH SOME LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACRS NERN WY
INTO THE NRN BLKHLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-025-026-031-
     032-043-072-073.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 260421
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
921 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SNOW IS DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS PRES RISES MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND CDFNT. THE MDT/HEAVY BAND OF SNOW OVER THE BLKHLS
IS DIMINISHING WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE GUSTY MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP ANALYSES INDICATED A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST.
A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS ERN MT INTO NWRN
SD...AIDED BY A 150-KT UPPER JET. SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD AND NERN WY...BUT WITH A DOWNSLOPE HOLE OVER
PARTS OF SWRN SD. AREA WEBCAMS SHOWED AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW OVER
NERN WY...A TRACE OVER NWRN SD...AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE NRN BLKHLS.
A SFC LOW OVER WRN ND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH 2-5MB/3HR PRES RISES AS
IT MOVED SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-35 MPH BEHIND THE
LOW MOVING INTO NWRN SD.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH THU. FOR TNGT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES TO
NERN KS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TO SWRN IA. THIS WILL TAKE MOST OF THE
PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVNG...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF NWRN INTO SCNTRL SD. THE PREVIOUS WIND ADVY
LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NOT CHANGE. BLSN IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE WARM TEMPS AND LIMITED SNOWFALL. A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL SETUP OVER THE WRN CWA SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW GOING
THERE. COLDER AIR ALSO WILL FLOW INTO THE CWA TNGT GIVEN STRONG COLD
ADVECTION.

ON WED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE WRN CWA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS AIDING IN MESOSCALE LIFT ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER JET. DESPITE WEAK UPPER FORCING...THE
LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES SHOULD LEAD TO SNOW
OVER NERN WY INTO WRN SD. THIS WILL SPREAD NEWD WED NGT AS UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES.
SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT A CHANCE
OF FZRA OVER PARTS OF NWRN SD LATE WED NGT INTO THU MRNG...SO HAVE
ADDED THAT TO THE FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SNOW/FREEZING RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING...
LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER NW SD.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE TEMPS...
PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY PUSHING THE WARM FRONT NE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
THE RESULT WILL BE DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING
AND FRIDAY. JUST HOW WARM THE SD PLAINS WILL GET ON THURSDAY
DEPENDS ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT...AS MODELS HAVE A 10-15
DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS THAT AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 30S ACROSS NW SD TO THE MID 50S IN PORTIONS OF NE WY AND SW
SD. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AS A SHALLOW
TROUGH CROSSES SRN CANADA INTO MT/ND. AGAIN HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE
POSITIONING OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE
MORNING...AS TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S...AND THEN SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES
HAVE A 45-50 DEGREE SPREAD FOR THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND ABOUT A
30 DEGREE SPREAD FOR LOWS...SO THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. THEN MODELS SHOW WARMER AIR ADVECTING BACK IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 916 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

WINDS WILL GUST OVER 40KTS AT TIMES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN
SD. -SN WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO WED...ESPECIALLY OVER
NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SWD
ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND THE CDFNT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY ON WED...WITH SOME LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACRS NERN WY
INTO THE NRN BLKHLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-025-026-031-
     032-043-072-073.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 260421
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
921 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SNOW IS DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS PRES RISES MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND CDFNT. THE MDT/HEAVY BAND OF SNOW OVER THE BLKHLS
IS DIMINISHING WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE GUSTY MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP ANALYSES INDICATED A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST.
A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS ERN MT INTO NWRN
SD...AIDED BY A 150-KT UPPER JET. SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD AND NERN WY...BUT WITH A DOWNSLOPE HOLE OVER
PARTS OF SWRN SD. AREA WEBCAMS SHOWED AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW OVER
NERN WY...A TRACE OVER NWRN SD...AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE NRN BLKHLS.
A SFC LOW OVER WRN ND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH 2-5MB/3HR PRES RISES AS
IT MOVED SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-35 MPH BEHIND THE
LOW MOVING INTO NWRN SD.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH THU. FOR TNGT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES TO
NERN KS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TO SWRN IA. THIS WILL TAKE MOST OF THE
PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVNG...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF NWRN INTO SCNTRL SD. THE PREVIOUS WIND ADVY
LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NOT CHANGE. BLSN IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE WARM TEMPS AND LIMITED SNOWFALL. A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL SETUP OVER THE WRN CWA SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW GOING
THERE. COLDER AIR ALSO WILL FLOW INTO THE CWA TNGT GIVEN STRONG COLD
ADVECTION.

ON WED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE WRN CWA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS AIDING IN MESOSCALE LIFT ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER JET. DESPITE WEAK UPPER FORCING...THE
LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES SHOULD LEAD TO SNOW
OVER NERN WY INTO WRN SD. THIS WILL SPREAD NEWD WED NGT AS UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES.
SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT A CHANCE
OF FZRA OVER PARTS OF NWRN SD LATE WED NGT INTO THU MRNG...SO HAVE
ADDED THAT TO THE FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SNOW/FREEZING RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING...
LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER NW SD.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE TEMPS...
PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY PUSHING THE WARM FRONT NE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
THE RESULT WILL BE DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING
AND FRIDAY. JUST HOW WARM THE SD PLAINS WILL GET ON THURSDAY
DEPENDS ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT...AS MODELS HAVE A 10-15
DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS THAT AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 30S ACROSS NW SD TO THE MID 50S IN PORTIONS OF NE WY AND SW
SD. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AS A SHALLOW
TROUGH CROSSES SRN CANADA INTO MT/ND. AGAIN HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE
POSITIONING OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE
MORNING...AS TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S...AND THEN SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES
HAVE A 45-50 DEGREE SPREAD FOR THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND ABOUT A
30 DEGREE SPREAD FOR LOWS...SO THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. THEN MODELS SHOW WARMER AIR ADVECTING BACK IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 916 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

WINDS WILL GUST OVER 40KTS AT TIMES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN
SD. -SN WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO WED...ESPECIALLY OVER
NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SWD
ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND THE CDFNT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY ON WED...WITH SOME LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACRS NERN WY
INTO THE NRN BLKHLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-025-026-031-
     032-043-072-073.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON






000
FXUS63 KABR 260222 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
822 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE STORM APPEARS TO BE ON SCHEDULE AND MOVING WHERE ITS SUPPOSED
TO...SO CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS OKAY AND WILL NOT ALTER MUCH.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH ABR JUST
HAVING RECENTLY REPORTED LIGHT SNOW. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGHEST ACCUMS STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL AID IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
THE SHORT RANGE/HI RES MODELS IN REGARDS TO SNOW TOTALS IN THE
JAMES VALLEY...WHICH MAKES TOTALS A BIT DIFFICULT HERE. ALL
DEPENDS ON WHERE THE PIVOTING TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE LOW. A FEW
MODELS SHOW IT TAKING PLACE MORE OVER ROBERTS AND TRAVERSE
COUNTIES WHERE OTHERS ARE MORE OVER NORTHERN BROWN AND MARSHALL
COUNTIES. THIS COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE OF ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
POSSIBLY. WILL LEAVE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADDITION FOR BIG STONE AND
TRAVERSE COUNTIES IF HI RES MODELS TREND TOWARDS HITTING THAT AREA
A BIT HARDER. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING. THIS
WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY SIGNIFICANT. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS
SNOWFALL AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY FOR MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. 925
MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WITH A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF FRESH SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SURFACE TEMPS
WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY. TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
THURSDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD...WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. A WARM AIR
ADVECTION BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE AIR
MASS IS PRETTY DRY INITIALLY...BUT DOES LOOK TO GRADUALLY
SATURATE. FOR NOW LEFT ONLY A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG MID LEVEL WARM AIR PUSH...THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER HOWEVER...SO WILL JUST
MAINTAIN THE SNOW WORDING AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
MIXED PRECIP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MORE SEASONAL...BUT THEY DONT
LAST LONG AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TAKE OVER.

MODELS DO SHOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A BAND OF IFR SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH KABR/KATY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
BACK WEST AND SOUTH AT KPIR/KMBG CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY IFR/MVFR
BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT LATE. KABR/KATY CIGS WILL IMPROVE LATE TNT
AND EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SNOW ENDS. HOWEVER WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING
SNOW ESPECIALLY AT KATY LATE TNT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-
     MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 260222 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
822 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE STORM APPEARS TO BE ON SCHEDULE AND MOVING WHERE ITS SUPPOSED
TO...SO CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS OKAY AND WILL NOT ALTER MUCH.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH ABR JUST
HAVING RECENTLY REPORTED LIGHT SNOW. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGHEST ACCUMS STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL AID IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
THE SHORT RANGE/HI RES MODELS IN REGARDS TO SNOW TOTALS IN THE
JAMES VALLEY...WHICH MAKES TOTALS A BIT DIFFICULT HERE. ALL
DEPENDS ON WHERE THE PIVOTING TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE LOW. A FEW
MODELS SHOW IT TAKING PLACE MORE OVER ROBERTS AND TRAVERSE
COUNTIES WHERE OTHERS ARE MORE OVER NORTHERN BROWN AND MARSHALL
COUNTIES. THIS COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE OF ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
POSSIBLY. WILL LEAVE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADDITION FOR BIG STONE AND
TRAVERSE COUNTIES IF HI RES MODELS TREND TOWARDS HITTING THAT AREA
A BIT HARDER. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING. THIS
WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY SIGNIFICANT. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS
SNOWFALL AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY FOR MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. 925
MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WITH A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF FRESH SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SURFACE TEMPS
WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY. TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
THURSDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD...WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. A WARM AIR
ADVECTION BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE AIR
MASS IS PRETTY DRY INITIALLY...BUT DOES LOOK TO GRADUALLY
SATURATE. FOR NOW LEFT ONLY A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG MID LEVEL WARM AIR PUSH...THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER HOWEVER...SO WILL JUST
MAINTAIN THE SNOW WORDING AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
MIXED PRECIP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MORE SEASONAL...BUT THEY DONT
LAST LONG AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TAKE OVER.

MODELS DO SHOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A BAND OF IFR SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH KABR/KATY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
BACK WEST AND SOUTH AT KPIR/KMBG CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY IFR/MVFR
BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT LATE. KABR/KATY CIGS WILL IMPROVE LATE TNT
AND EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SNOW ENDS. HOWEVER WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING
SNOW ESPECIALLY AT KATY LATE TNT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-
     MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 252347 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
547 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH ABR JUST
HAVING RECENTLY REPORTED LIGHT SNOW. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGHEST ACCUMS STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL AID IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
THE SHORT RANGE/HI RES MODELS IN REGARDS TO SNOW TOTALS IN THE
JAMES VALLEY...WHICH MAKES TOTALS A BIT DIFFICULT HERE. ALL
DEPENDS ON WHERE THE PIVOTING TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE LOW. A FEW
MODELS SHOW IT TAKING PLACE MORE OVER ROBERTS AND TRAVERSE
COUNTIES WHERE OTHERS ARE MORE OVER NORTHERN BROWN AND MARSHALL
COUNTIES. THIS COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE OF ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
POSSIBLY. WILL LEAVE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADDITION FOR BIG STONE AND
TRAVERSE COUNTIES IF HI RES MODELS TREND TOWARDS HITTING THAT AREA
A BIT HARDER. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING. THIS
WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY SIGNIFICANT. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS
SNOWFALL AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY FOR MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. 925
MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WITH A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF FRESH SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SURFACE TEMPS
WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY. TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
THURSDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD...WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. A WARM AIR
ADVECTION BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE AIR
MASS IS PRETTY DRY INITIALLY...BUT DOES LOOK TO GRADUALLY
SATURATE. FOR NOW LEFT ONLY A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG MID LEVEL WARM AIR PUSH...THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER HOWEVER...SO WILL JUST
MAINTAIN THE SNOW WORDING AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
MIXED PRECIP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MORE SEASONAL...BUT THEY DONT
LAST LONG AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TAKE OVER.

MODELS DO SHOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A BAND OF IFR SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH KABR/KATY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
BACK WEST AND SOUTH AT KPIR/KMBG CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY IFR/MVFR
BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT LATE. KABR/KATY CIGS WILL IMPROVE LATE TNT
AND EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SNOW ENDS. HOWEVER WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING
SNOW ESPECIALLY AT KATY LATE TNT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-
     MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 252347 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
547 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH ABR JUST
HAVING RECENTLY REPORTED LIGHT SNOW. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGHEST ACCUMS STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL AID IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
THE SHORT RANGE/HI RES MODELS IN REGARDS TO SNOW TOTALS IN THE
JAMES VALLEY...WHICH MAKES TOTALS A BIT DIFFICULT HERE. ALL
DEPENDS ON WHERE THE PIVOTING TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE LOW. A FEW
MODELS SHOW IT TAKING PLACE MORE OVER ROBERTS AND TRAVERSE
COUNTIES WHERE OTHERS ARE MORE OVER NORTHERN BROWN AND MARSHALL
COUNTIES. THIS COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE OF ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
POSSIBLY. WILL LEAVE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADDITION FOR BIG STONE AND
TRAVERSE COUNTIES IF HI RES MODELS TREND TOWARDS HITTING THAT AREA
A BIT HARDER. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING. THIS
WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY SIGNIFICANT. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS
SNOWFALL AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY FOR MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. 925
MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WITH A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF FRESH SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SURFACE TEMPS
WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY. TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
THURSDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD...WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. A WARM AIR
ADVECTION BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE AIR
MASS IS PRETTY DRY INITIALLY...BUT DOES LOOK TO GRADUALLY
SATURATE. FOR NOW LEFT ONLY A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG MID LEVEL WARM AIR PUSH...THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER HOWEVER...SO WILL JUST
MAINTAIN THE SNOW WORDING AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
MIXED PRECIP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MORE SEASONAL...BUT THEY DONT
LAST LONG AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TAKE OVER.

MODELS DO SHOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A BAND OF IFR SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH KABR/KATY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
BACK WEST AND SOUTH AT KPIR/KMBG CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY IFR/MVFR
BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT LATE. KABR/KATY CIGS WILL IMPROVE LATE TNT
AND EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SNOW ENDS. HOWEVER WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING
SNOW ESPECIALLY AT KATY LATE TNT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-
     MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 252347 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
547 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH ABR JUST
HAVING RECENTLY REPORTED LIGHT SNOW. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGHEST ACCUMS STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL AID IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
THE SHORT RANGE/HI RES MODELS IN REGARDS TO SNOW TOTALS IN THE
JAMES VALLEY...WHICH MAKES TOTALS A BIT DIFFICULT HERE. ALL
DEPENDS ON WHERE THE PIVOTING TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE LOW. A FEW
MODELS SHOW IT TAKING PLACE MORE OVER ROBERTS AND TRAVERSE
COUNTIES WHERE OTHERS ARE MORE OVER NORTHERN BROWN AND MARSHALL
COUNTIES. THIS COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE OF ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
POSSIBLY. WILL LEAVE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADDITION FOR BIG STONE AND
TRAVERSE COUNTIES IF HI RES MODELS TREND TOWARDS HITTING THAT AREA
A BIT HARDER. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING. THIS
WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY SIGNIFICANT. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS
SNOWFALL AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY FOR MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. 925
MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WITH A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF FRESH SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SURFACE TEMPS
WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY. TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
THURSDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD...WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. A WARM AIR
ADVECTION BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE AIR
MASS IS PRETTY DRY INITIALLY...BUT DOES LOOK TO GRADUALLY
SATURATE. FOR NOW LEFT ONLY A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG MID LEVEL WARM AIR PUSH...THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER HOWEVER...SO WILL JUST
MAINTAIN THE SNOW WORDING AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
MIXED PRECIP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MORE SEASONAL...BUT THEY DONT
LAST LONG AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TAKE OVER.

MODELS DO SHOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A BAND OF IFR SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH KABR/KATY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
BACK WEST AND SOUTH AT KPIR/KMBG CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY IFR/MVFR
BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT LATE. KABR/KATY CIGS WILL IMPROVE LATE TNT
AND EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SNOW ENDS. HOWEVER WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING
SNOW ESPECIALLY AT KATY LATE TNT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-
     MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 252347 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
547 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH ABR JUST
HAVING RECENTLY REPORTED LIGHT SNOW. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGHEST ACCUMS STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL AID IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
THE SHORT RANGE/HI RES MODELS IN REGARDS TO SNOW TOTALS IN THE
JAMES VALLEY...WHICH MAKES TOTALS A BIT DIFFICULT HERE. ALL
DEPENDS ON WHERE THE PIVOTING TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE LOW. A FEW
MODELS SHOW IT TAKING PLACE MORE OVER ROBERTS AND TRAVERSE
COUNTIES WHERE OTHERS ARE MORE OVER NORTHERN BROWN AND MARSHALL
COUNTIES. THIS COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE OF ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
POSSIBLY. WILL LEAVE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADDITION FOR BIG STONE AND
TRAVERSE COUNTIES IF HI RES MODELS TREND TOWARDS HITTING THAT AREA
A BIT HARDER. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING. THIS
WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY SIGNIFICANT. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS
SNOWFALL AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY FOR MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. 925
MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WITH A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF FRESH SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SURFACE TEMPS
WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY. TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
THURSDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD...WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. A WARM AIR
ADVECTION BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE AIR
MASS IS PRETTY DRY INITIALLY...BUT DOES LOOK TO GRADUALLY
SATURATE. FOR NOW LEFT ONLY A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG MID LEVEL WARM AIR PUSH...THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER HOWEVER...SO WILL JUST
MAINTAIN THE SNOW WORDING AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
MIXED PRECIP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MORE SEASONAL...BUT THEY DONT
LAST LONG AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TAKE OVER.

MODELS DO SHOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A BAND OF IFR SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH KABR/KATY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
BACK WEST AND SOUTH AT KPIR/KMBG CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY IFR/MVFR
BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT LATE. KABR/KATY CIGS WILL IMPROVE LATE TNT
AND EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SNOW ENDS. HOWEVER WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING
SNOW ESPECIALLY AT KATY LATE TNT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-
     MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 252318
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
518 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD
EXPECT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE TIMED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE 1.5 PV ANOMALY WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP ASCENT. THIS REACHES THE THE JAMES VALLEY
AROUND 00Z...I-29 AROUND 03Z...AND HWY 71 IN IA AND MN AROUND 06Z.
THE UPPER WAVE DEEPENS OVER ERN SD AND ERN NEBRASKA SO THAT THE
POSITIVE PV ADVECTION PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF SW MN AND NW IA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
LAST 3 OR 4 HOURS OVER MOST OF SE SD AND MOST OF NW IA...WHERE 1
TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR 6 TO 10 HOURS FROM CANBY DOWN TO SPIRIT LAKE IOWA. WITH
ONLY 1/4 OR 1/2 INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED...THAT WOULD RESULT 3 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW.

THE SECOND ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE LOW TRACK...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.  BUT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND WITH PRESSURE RISES
AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AROUND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. FOR MOST AREAS...THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL AFTER THE SNOW ENDS OR IS ABOUT TO END.
THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL BE LOFTED SUCH
THAT BLOWING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY A FEW WIDE OPEN
LOCATIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM
CANBY MN TO SPIRIT LAKE WHERE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AND WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT THE TIME...THIS WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON. WHILE THERE COULD
BE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON EAST OF
HIGHWAY 59...MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SUCH THAT THE THREAT
FOR BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO DICKINSON COUNTY IOWA. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND SNOW. HOWEVER...ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE STEADY OR FALL MOST OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
IN NW IA WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HELP
TO DIMINISH WINDS. SHOULD SET UP A FAIRLY CHILLY NIGHT...BUT
CHALLENGE WILL BE IN DIAGNOSING POTENTIAL EXTENT FOR CLEARING
SKIES TO MAXIMIZE IMPACT OF THE SNOWFALL FROM TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTATIONS OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUDS IN
THE EAST TO START THE EVENING...AND SHIELD OF HIGHER CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY HANGS UP WITH A FEW LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND INITIATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
MAY KICK UP A COUPLE OF FLURRIES IN THE FAR WEST WHILE TEMPS IN
CLOUD LAYER REMAIN FAVORABLY COLD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
DIP BELOW ZERO THROUGH NORTHERN COUPLE OF TIERS...AND IF CAN
SUPERIMPOSE THE SNOW COVER...CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...COULD
PUSH 10 BELOW OR MORE AROUND BROOKINGS.

THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHERWISE...AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND IMPOSED DRY AIR SLIPS EASTWARD...AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE SLOWLY TRANSLATES NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF EARLY DAY FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE IN THE WEST...BUT WEAKENING OF QG LIFT AND WARMING OF
TEMPS IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SHOULD SPELL AND END TO ANY FLURRY
THREAT. HOWEVER...BY LATE DAY...ADVANCING BAROCLINICITY WILL START
TO FEEL IMPACT OF NEXT WAVE MOVING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. LIFT
FORCING LOOKS TO INCREASE...AND WILL AGAIN SEE A THREAT FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TOWARD KBKX-KMML AREA. OVERALL A FAIRLY COOL DAY AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES STABILIZE AT LOWER LEVELS WITH WARMING
ALOFT...A FAIRLY AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL COMPONENT.

MASSIVELY WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD
TO NON-DIURNAL TRENDS. LEADING EDGE OF WARMING GENERATING ENOUGH
LIFT AND SATURATION TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE EVENING. SUB INVERSION LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE
MOIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DEPTH
IS LIKELY TOO SHALLOW WITH LIFT EXPECTED ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER...
BUT A GREAT DEAL OF LOWER CLOUDS AS WELL AS A FREEZING DRIZZLE
AFTER SNOW CHANCE TAPERS OFF IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT TO SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE SOME
ISSUES TO WARMING TO DEAL WITH INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AS
WELL AS THE EXISTING SNOW COVER...BUT FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE NUMBERS
SUGGEST GRADIENT FROM MID 30S WHERE GREATER SNOWFALL OCCURS
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S LOWER BRULE AREAS.

SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE BEGIN TO EVOLVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
WAVE EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG ZONAL FLOW...DRIVING A SHARP ARCTIC
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. TIMING IS PRETTY SUSPECT AT THIS POINT...WHICH
LEAD TO POTENTIAL LARGE ERRORS IN TEMPS AS SOME RUNS TAKE FRONT
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA BEFORE 12Z SAT...WHILE OTHERS GIVE AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA OR DAY IN THE WARMER AIR BEFORE DRIVING
SOUTHWARD. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT STANDARD DEVIATIONS THAT
FAVOR SIDING TOWARD THE MEANS...WHICH ARE MUCH COOLER THAN
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. HAVE BLENDED IN HEAVIER WEIGHT TO ENSEMBLE
MEANS FOR SATURDAY.

IF ANY PERIOD OF THE LONGER RANGE WAS TO CONTAIN A PRECIPITATION
THREAT...IT WOULD LIKELY BE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...AS SHARP MID LEVEL FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD AND ZONAL JET
ENTRANCE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COLDEST OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
COLD SURFACE RIDGE EXPANDS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL SURVIVE THE MELT ON
FRIDAY...HAVE NOT GONE TOO EXTREME WITH COOLING UNDER RIDGE MONDAY
MORNING. AS STRONGLY AS CONDITIONS COOL...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATE
STRONG RIDGE BUILDING EARLY WEEK...WITH TEMPS ALOFT OUTPACING THE
WARMING AT LOW LEVELS. BY TUESDAY...STOUT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
GRADIENT MAY FINALLY ABLE TO DISPLACE THE COLD STABLE POOL...AND
TREND TOWARD EVEN WARMER IS WOULD SEEM TO BE IN THE CARDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 511 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER CORRIDOR WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE WARMER. IFR
VISIBILITIES AND IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SNOW.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY
PATCHY WITH SNOW ENDING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-090.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ003.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 252318
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
518 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD
EXPECT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE TIMED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE 1.5 PV ANOMALY WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP ASCENT. THIS REACHES THE THE JAMES VALLEY
AROUND 00Z...I-29 AROUND 03Z...AND HWY 71 IN IA AND MN AROUND 06Z.
THE UPPER WAVE DEEPENS OVER ERN SD AND ERN NEBRASKA SO THAT THE
POSITIVE PV ADVECTION PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF SW MN AND NW IA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
LAST 3 OR 4 HOURS OVER MOST OF SE SD AND MOST OF NW IA...WHERE 1
TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR 6 TO 10 HOURS FROM CANBY DOWN TO SPIRIT LAKE IOWA. WITH
ONLY 1/4 OR 1/2 INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED...THAT WOULD RESULT 3 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW.

THE SECOND ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE LOW TRACK...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.  BUT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND WITH PRESSURE RISES
AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AROUND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. FOR MOST AREAS...THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL AFTER THE SNOW ENDS OR IS ABOUT TO END.
THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL BE LOFTED SUCH
THAT BLOWING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY A FEW WIDE OPEN
LOCATIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM
CANBY MN TO SPIRIT LAKE WHERE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AND WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT THE TIME...THIS WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON. WHILE THERE COULD
BE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON EAST OF
HIGHWAY 59...MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SUCH THAT THE THREAT
FOR BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO DICKINSON COUNTY IOWA. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND SNOW. HOWEVER...ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE STEADY OR FALL MOST OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
IN NW IA WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HELP
TO DIMINISH WINDS. SHOULD SET UP A FAIRLY CHILLY NIGHT...BUT
CHALLENGE WILL BE IN DIAGNOSING POTENTIAL EXTENT FOR CLEARING
SKIES TO MAXIMIZE IMPACT OF THE SNOWFALL FROM TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTATIONS OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUDS IN
THE EAST TO START THE EVENING...AND SHIELD OF HIGHER CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY HANGS UP WITH A FEW LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND INITIATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
MAY KICK UP A COUPLE OF FLURRIES IN THE FAR WEST WHILE TEMPS IN
CLOUD LAYER REMAIN FAVORABLY COLD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
DIP BELOW ZERO THROUGH NORTHERN COUPLE OF TIERS...AND IF CAN
SUPERIMPOSE THE SNOW COVER...CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...COULD
PUSH 10 BELOW OR MORE AROUND BROOKINGS.

THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHERWISE...AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND IMPOSED DRY AIR SLIPS EASTWARD...AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE SLOWLY TRANSLATES NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF EARLY DAY FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE IN THE WEST...BUT WEAKENING OF QG LIFT AND WARMING OF
TEMPS IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SHOULD SPELL AND END TO ANY FLURRY
THREAT. HOWEVER...BY LATE DAY...ADVANCING BAROCLINICITY WILL START
TO FEEL IMPACT OF NEXT WAVE MOVING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. LIFT
FORCING LOOKS TO INCREASE...AND WILL AGAIN SEE A THREAT FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TOWARD KBKX-KMML AREA. OVERALL A FAIRLY COOL DAY AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES STABILIZE AT LOWER LEVELS WITH WARMING
ALOFT...A FAIRLY AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL COMPONENT.

MASSIVELY WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD
TO NON-DIURNAL TRENDS. LEADING EDGE OF WARMING GENERATING ENOUGH
LIFT AND SATURATION TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE EVENING. SUB INVERSION LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE
MOIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DEPTH
IS LIKELY TOO SHALLOW WITH LIFT EXPECTED ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER...
BUT A GREAT DEAL OF LOWER CLOUDS AS WELL AS A FREEZING DRIZZLE
AFTER SNOW CHANCE TAPERS OFF IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT TO SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE SOME
ISSUES TO WARMING TO DEAL WITH INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AS
WELL AS THE EXISTING SNOW COVER...BUT FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE NUMBERS
SUGGEST GRADIENT FROM MID 30S WHERE GREATER SNOWFALL OCCURS
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S LOWER BRULE AREAS.

SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE BEGIN TO EVOLVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
WAVE EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG ZONAL FLOW...DRIVING A SHARP ARCTIC
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. TIMING IS PRETTY SUSPECT AT THIS POINT...WHICH
LEAD TO POTENTIAL LARGE ERRORS IN TEMPS AS SOME RUNS TAKE FRONT
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA BEFORE 12Z SAT...WHILE OTHERS GIVE AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA OR DAY IN THE WARMER AIR BEFORE DRIVING
SOUTHWARD. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT STANDARD DEVIATIONS THAT
FAVOR SIDING TOWARD THE MEANS...WHICH ARE MUCH COOLER THAN
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. HAVE BLENDED IN HEAVIER WEIGHT TO ENSEMBLE
MEANS FOR SATURDAY.

IF ANY PERIOD OF THE LONGER RANGE WAS TO CONTAIN A PRECIPITATION
THREAT...IT WOULD LIKELY BE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...AS SHARP MID LEVEL FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD AND ZONAL JET
ENTRANCE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COLDEST OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
COLD SURFACE RIDGE EXPANDS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL SURVIVE THE MELT ON
FRIDAY...HAVE NOT GONE TOO EXTREME WITH COOLING UNDER RIDGE MONDAY
MORNING. AS STRONGLY AS CONDITIONS COOL...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATE
STRONG RIDGE BUILDING EARLY WEEK...WITH TEMPS ALOFT OUTPACING THE
WARMING AT LOW LEVELS. BY TUESDAY...STOUT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
GRADIENT MAY FINALLY ABLE TO DISPLACE THE COLD STABLE POOL...AND
TREND TOWARD EVEN WARMER IS WOULD SEEM TO BE IN THE CARDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 511 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER CORRIDOR WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE WARMER. IFR
VISIBILITIES AND IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SNOW.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY
PATCHY WITH SNOW ENDING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-090.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ003.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM



000
FXUS63 KUNR 252311
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
411 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP ANALYSES INDICATED A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST.
A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS ERN MT INTO NWRN
SD...AIDED BY A 150-KT UPPER JET. SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD AND NERN WY...BUT WITH A DOWNSLOPE HOLE OVER
PARTS OF SWRN SD. AREA WEBCAMS SHOWED AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW OVER
NERN WY...A TRACE OVER NWRN SD...AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE NRN BLKHLS.
A SFC LOW OVER WRN ND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH 2-5MB/3HR PRES RISES AS
IT MOVED SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-35 MPH BEHIND THE
LOW MOVING INTO NWRN SD.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH THU. FOR TNGT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES TO
NERN KS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TO SWRN IA. THIS WILL TAKE MOST OF THE
PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVNG...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF NWRN INTO SCNTRL SD. THE PREVIOUS WIND ADVY
LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NOT CHANGE. BLSN IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE WARM TEMPS AND LIMITED SNOWFALL. A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL SETUP OVER THE WRN CWA SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW GOING
THERE. COLDER AIR ALSO WILL FLOW INTO THE CWA TNGT GIVEN STRONG COLD
ADVECTION.

ON WED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE WRN CWA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS AIDING IN MESOSCALE LIFT ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER JET. DESPITE WEAK UPPER FORCING...THE
LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES SHOULD LEAD TO SNOW
OVER NERN WY INTO WRN SD. THIS WILL SPREAD NEWD WED NGT AS UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES.
SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT A CHANCE
OF FZRA OVER PARTS OF NWRN SD LATE WED NGT INTO THU MRNG...SO HAVE
ADDED THAT TO THE FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SNOW/FREEZING RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING...
LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER NW SD.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE TEMPS...
PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY PUSHING THE WARM FRONT NE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
THE RESULT WILL BE DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING
AND FRIDAY. JUST HOW WARM THE SD PLAINS WILL GET ON THURSDAY
DEPENDS ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT...AS MODELS HAVE A 10-15
DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS THAT AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 30S ACROSS NW SD TO THE MID 50S IN PORTIONS OF NE WY AND SW
SD. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AS A SHALLOW
TROUGH CROSSES SRN CANADA INTO MT/ND. AGAIN HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE
POSITIONING OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE
MORNING...AS TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S...AND THEN SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES
HAVE A 45-50 DEGREE SPREAD FOR THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND ABOUT A
30 DEGREE SPREAD FOR LOWS...SO THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. THEN MODELS SHOW WARMER AIR ADVECTING BACK IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

NW WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER THIS EVENING...GUSTING OVER 40KTS
AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN SD...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
-SN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WED...ESPECIALLY OVER NERN
WY AND FAR WRN SD. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SWD ACRS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON WED...WITH SOME
LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACRS NERN WY INTO THE NRN BLKHLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-025-026-031-
     032-043-072-073.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 252311
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
411 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP ANALYSES INDICATED A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST.
A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS ERN MT INTO NWRN
SD...AIDED BY A 150-KT UPPER JET. SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD AND NERN WY...BUT WITH A DOWNSLOPE HOLE OVER
PARTS OF SWRN SD. AREA WEBCAMS SHOWED AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW OVER
NERN WY...A TRACE OVER NWRN SD...AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE NRN BLKHLS.
A SFC LOW OVER WRN ND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH 2-5MB/3HR PRES RISES AS
IT MOVED SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-35 MPH BEHIND THE
LOW MOVING INTO NWRN SD.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH THU. FOR TNGT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES TO
NERN KS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TO SWRN IA. THIS WILL TAKE MOST OF THE
PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVNG...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF NWRN INTO SCNTRL SD. THE PREVIOUS WIND ADVY
LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NOT CHANGE. BLSN IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE WARM TEMPS AND LIMITED SNOWFALL. A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL SETUP OVER THE WRN CWA SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW GOING
THERE. COLDER AIR ALSO WILL FLOW INTO THE CWA TNGT GIVEN STRONG COLD
ADVECTION.

ON WED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE WRN CWA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS AIDING IN MESOSCALE LIFT ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER JET. DESPITE WEAK UPPER FORCING...THE
LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES SHOULD LEAD TO SNOW
OVER NERN WY INTO WRN SD. THIS WILL SPREAD NEWD WED NGT AS UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES.
SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT A CHANCE
OF FZRA OVER PARTS OF NWRN SD LATE WED NGT INTO THU MRNG...SO HAVE
ADDED THAT TO THE FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SNOW/FREEZING RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING...
LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER NW SD.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE TEMPS...
PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY PUSHING THE WARM FRONT NE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
THE RESULT WILL BE DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING
AND FRIDAY. JUST HOW WARM THE SD PLAINS WILL GET ON THURSDAY
DEPENDS ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT...AS MODELS HAVE A 10-15
DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS THAT AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 30S ACROSS NW SD TO THE MID 50S IN PORTIONS OF NE WY AND SW
SD. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AS A SHALLOW
TROUGH CROSSES SRN CANADA INTO MT/ND. AGAIN HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE
POSITIONING OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE
MORNING...AS TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S...AND THEN SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES
HAVE A 45-50 DEGREE SPREAD FOR THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND ABOUT A
30 DEGREE SPREAD FOR LOWS...SO THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. THEN MODELS SHOW WARMER AIR ADVECTING BACK IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

NW WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER THIS EVENING...GUSTING OVER 40KTS
AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN SD...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
-SN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WED...ESPECIALLY OVER NERN
WY AND FAR WRN SD. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SWD ACRS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON WED...WITH SOME
LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACRS NERN WY INTO THE NRN BLKHLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-025-026-031-
     032-043-072-073.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 252311
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
411 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP ANALYSES INDICATED A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST.
A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS ERN MT INTO NWRN
SD...AIDED BY A 150-KT UPPER JET. SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD AND NERN WY...BUT WITH A DOWNSLOPE HOLE OVER
PARTS OF SWRN SD. AREA WEBCAMS SHOWED AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW OVER
NERN WY...A TRACE OVER NWRN SD...AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE NRN BLKHLS.
A SFC LOW OVER WRN ND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH 2-5MB/3HR PRES RISES AS
IT MOVED SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-35 MPH BEHIND THE
LOW MOVING INTO NWRN SD.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH THU. FOR TNGT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES TO
NERN KS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TO SWRN IA. THIS WILL TAKE MOST OF THE
PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVNG...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF NWRN INTO SCNTRL SD. THE PREVIOUS WIND ADVY
LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NOT CHANGE. BLSN IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE WARM TEMPS AND LIMITED SNOWFALL. A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL SETUP OVER THE WRN CWA SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW GOING
THERE. COLDER AIR ALSO WILL FLOW INTO THE CWA TNGT GIVEN STRONG COLD
ADVECTION.

ON WED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE WRN CWA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS AIDING IN MESOSCALE LIFT ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER JET. DESPITE WEAK UPPER FORCING...THE
LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES SHOULD LEAD TO SNOW
OVER NERN WY INTO WRN SD. THIS WILL SPREAD NEWD WED NGT AS UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES.
SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT A CHANCE
OF FZRA OVER PARTS OF NWRN SD LATE WED NGT INTO THU MRNG...SO HAVE
ADDED THAT TO THE FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SNOW/FREEZING RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING...
LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER NW SD.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE TEMPS...
PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY PUSHING THE WARM FRONT NE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
THE RESULT WILL BE DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING
AND FRIDAY. JUST HOW WARM THE SD PLAINS WILL GET ON THURSDAY
DEPENDS ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT...AS MODELS HAVE A 10-15
DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS THAT AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 30S ACROSS NW SD TO THE MID 50S IN PORTIONS OF NE WY AND SW
SD. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AS A SHALLOW
TROUGH CROSSES SRN CANADA INTO MT/ND. AGAIN HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE
POSITIONING OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE
MORNING...AS TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S...AND THEN SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES
HAVE A 45-50 DEGREE SPREAD FOR THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND ABOUT A
30 DEGREE SPREAD FOR LOWS...SO THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. THEN MODELS SHOW WARMER AIR ADVECTING BACK IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

NW WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER THIS EVENING...GUSTING OVER 40KTS
AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN SD...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
-SN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WED...ESPECIALLY OVER NERN
WY AND FAR WRN SD. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SWD ACRS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON WED...WITH SOME
LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACRS NERN WY INTO THE NRN BLKHLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-025-026-031-
     032-043-072-073.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 252311
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
411 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP ANALYSES INDICATED A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST.
A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS ERN MT INTO NWRN
SD...AIDED BY A 150-KT UPPER JET. SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD AND NERN WY...BUT WITH A DOWNSLOPE HOLE OVER
PARTS OF SWRN SD. AREA WEBCAMS SHOWED AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW OVER
NERN WY...A TRACE OVER NWRN SD...AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE NRN BLKHLS.
A SFC LOW OVER WRN ND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH 2-5MB/3HR PRES RISES AS
IT MOVED SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-35 MPH BEHIND THE
LOW MOVING INTO NWRN SD.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH THU. FOR TNGT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES TO
NERN KS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TO SWRN IA. THIS WILL TAKE MOST OF THE
PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVNG...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF NWRN INTO SCNTRL SD. THE PREVIOUS WIND ADVY
LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NOT CHANGE. BLSN IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE WARM TEMPS AND LIMITED SNOWFALL. A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL SETUP OVER THE WRN CWA SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW GOING
THERE. COLDER AIR ALSO WILL FLOW INTO THE CWA TNGT GIVEN STRONG COLD
ADVECTION.

ON WED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE WRN CWA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS AIDING IN MESOSCALE LIFT ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER JET. DESPITE WEAK UPPER FORCING...THE
LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES SHOULD LEAD TO SNOW
OVER NERN WY INTO WRN SD. THIS WILL SPREAD NEWD WED NGT AS UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES.
SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT A CHANCE
OF FZRA OVER PARTS OF NWRN SD LATE WED NGT INTO THU MRNG...SO HAVE
ADDED THAT TO THE FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SNOW/FREEZING RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING...
LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER NW SD.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE TEMPS...
PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY PUSHING THE WARM FRONT NE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
THE RESULT WILL BE DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING
AND FRIDAY. JUST HOW WARM THE SD PLAINS WILL GET ON THURSDAY
DEPENDS ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT...AS MODELS HAVE A 10-15
DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS THAT AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 30S ACROSS NW SD TO THE MID 50S IN PORTIONS OF NE WY AND SW
SD. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AS A SHALLOW
TROUGH CROSSES SRN CANADA INTO MT/ND. AGAIN HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE
POSITIONING OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE
MORNING...AS TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S...AND THEN SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES
HAVE A 45-50 DEGREE SPREAD FOR THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND ABOUT A
30 DEGREE SPREAD FOR LOWS...SO THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. THEN MODELS SHOW WARMER AIR ADVECTING BACK IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

NW WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER THIS EVENING...GUSTING OVER 40KTS
AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN SD...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
-SN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WED...ESPECIALLY OVER NERN
WY AND FAR WRN SD. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SWD ACRS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON WED...WITH SOME
LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACRS NERN WY INTO THE NRN BLKHLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-025-026-031-
     032-043-072-073.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KFSD 252207
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
407 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD
EXPECT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE TIMED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE 1.5 PV ANOMALY WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP ASCENT. THIS REACHES THE THE JAMES VALLEY
AROUND 00Z...I-29 AROUND 03Z...AND HWY 71 IN IA AND MN AROUND 06Z.
THE UPPER WAVE DEEPENS OVER ERN SD AND ERN NEBRASKA SO THAT THE
POSITIVE PV ADVECTION PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF SW MN AND NW IA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
LAST 3 OR 4 HOURS OVER MOST OF SE SD AND MOST OF NW IA...WHERE 1
TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR 6 TO 10 HOURS FROM CANBY DOWN TO SPIRIT LAKE IOWA. WITH
ONLY 1/4 OR 1/2 INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED...THAT WOULD RESULT 3 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW.

THE SECOND ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE LOW TRACK...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.  BUT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND WITH PRESSURE RISES
AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AROUND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. FOR MOST AREAS...THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL AFTER THE SNOW ENDS OR IS ABOUT TO END.
THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL BE LOFTED SUCH
THAT BLOWING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY A FEW WIDE OPEN
LOCATIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM
CANBY MN TO SPIRIT LAKE WHERE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AND WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT THE TIME...THIS WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON. WHILE THERE COULD
BE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON EAST OF
HIGHWAY 59...MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SUCH THAT THE THREAT
FOR BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO DICKINSON COUNTY IOWA. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND SNOW. HOWEVER...ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE STEADY OR FALL MOST OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
IN NW IA WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HELP
TO DIMINISH WINDS. SHOULD SET UP A FAIRLY CHILLY NIGHT...BUT
CHALLENGE WILL BE IN DIAGNOSING POTENTIAL EXTENT FOR CLEARING
SKIES TO MAXIMIZE IMPACT OF THE SNOWFALL FROM TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTATIONS OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUDS IN
THE EAST TO START THE EVENING...AND SHIELD OF HIGHER CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY HANGS UP WITH A FEW LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND INITIATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
MAY KICK UP A COUPLE OF FLURRIES IN THE FAR WEST WHILE TEMPS IN
CLOUD LAYER REMAIN FAVORABLY COLD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
DIP BELOW ZERO THROUGH NORTHERN COUPLE OF TIERS...AND IF CAN
SUPERIMPOSE THE SNOW COVER...CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...COULD
PUSH 10 BELOW OR MORE AROUND BROOKINGS.

THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHERWISE...AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND IMPOSED DRY AIR SLIPS EASTWARD...AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE SLOWLY TRANSLATES NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF EARLY DAY FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE IN THE WEST...BUT WEAKENING OF QG LIFT AND WARMING OF
TEMPS IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SHOULD SPELL AND END TO ANY FLURRY
THREAT. HOWEVER...BY LATE DAY...ADVANCING BAROCLINICITY WILL START
TO FEEL IMPACT OF NEXT WAVE MOVING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. LIFT
FORCING LOOKS TO INCREASE...AND WILL AGAIN SEE A THREAT FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TOWARD KBKX-KMML AREA. OVERALL A FAIRLY COOL DAY AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES STABILIZE AT LOWER LEVELS WITH WARMING
ALOFT...A FAIRLY AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL COMPONENT.

MASSIVELY WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD
TO NON-DIURNAL TRENDS. LEADING EDGE OF WARMING GENERATING ENOUGH
LIFT AND SATURATION TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE EVENING. SUB INVERSION LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE
MOIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DEPTH
IS LIKELY TOO SHALLOW WITH LIFT EXPECTED ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER...
BUT A GREAT DEAL OF LOWER CLOUDS AS WELL AS A FREEZING DRIZZLE
AFTER SNOW CHANCE TAPERS OFF IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT TO SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE SOME
ISSUES TO WARMING TO DEAL WITH INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AS
WELL AS THE EXISTING SNOW COVER...BUT FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE NUMBERS
SUGGEST GRADIENT FROM MID 30S WHERE GREATER SNOWFALL OCCURS
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S LOWER BRULE AREAS.

SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE BEGIN TO EVOLVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
WAVE EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG ZONAL FLOW...DRIVING A SHARP ARCTIC
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. TIMING IS PRETTY SUSPECT AT THIS POINT...WHICH
LEAD TO POTENTIAL LARGE ERRORS IN TEMPS AS SOME RUNS TAKE FRONT
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA BEFORE 12Z SAT...WHILE OTHERS GIVE AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA OR DAY IN THE WARMER AIR BEFORE DRIVING
SOUTHWARD. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT STANDARD DEVIATIONS THAT
FAVOR SIDING TOWARD THE MEANS...WHICH ARE MUCH COOLER THAN
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. HAVE BLENDED IN HEAVIER WEIGHT TO ENSEMBLE
MEANS FOR SATURDAY.

IF ANY PERIOD OF THE LONGER RANGE WAS TO CONTAIN A PRECIPITATION
THREAT...IT WOULD LIKELY BE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...AS SHARP MID LEVEL FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD AND ZONAL JET
ENTRANCE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COLDEST OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
COLD SURFACE RIDGE EXPANDS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL SURVIVE THE MELT ON
FRIDAY...HAVE NOT GONE TOO EXTREME WITH COOLING UNDER RIDGE MONDAY
MORNING. AS STRONGLY AS CONDITIONS COOL...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATE
STRONG RIDGE BUILDING EARLY WEEK...WITH TEMPS ALOFT OUTPACING THE
WARMING AT LOW LEVELS. BY TUESDAY...STOUT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
GRADIENT MAY FINALLY ABLE TO DISPLACE THE COLD STABLE POOL...AND
TREND TOWARD EVEN WARMER IS WOULD SEEM TO BE IN THE CARDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION WILL BE DEVELOPING IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. RADAR
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER ND AND MOVING INTO
NORTHWESTERN SD. THIS AREA OF SNOW SHOULD MOVE INTO HON AROUND
00Z...FSD AROUND 03Z AND SUX AROUND 04Z. FOR SUX...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. VSBYS WITH SNOW
ARE EXPECTED BE FROM 1 TO 3 MILES OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES AROUND KFSD AND THEN EAST INTO SW MN AND NW IA. CIGS
WILL FALL BELOW 2000 FT AND LIKELY WILL FALL BELOW 1000 FT AROUND
KFSD TOWARD MIDNIGHT. AS THE SNOW ENDS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WED MORNING...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO 6 MILES BUT CIGS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 1000 FT THROUGH 18Z. ONE CONCERN ON WED MORNING IS
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS. WITHOUT FALLING SNOW...EXPECT THAT
THIS WILL MAINLY PRODUCE DRIFTING SNOW AND NOT IMPACT VISIBILITIES
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN CASE WINDS ARE STRONGER AND BLOWING
SNOW DOES DEVELOP.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-090.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ003.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER




000
FXUS63 KFSD 252207
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
407 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD
EXPECT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE TIMED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE 1.5 PV ANOMALY WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP ASCENT. THIS REACHES THE THE JAMES VALLEY
AROUND 00Z...I-29 AROUND 03Z...AND HWY 71 IN IA AND MN AROUND 06Z.
THE UPPER WAVE DEEPENS OVER ERN SD AND ERN NEBRASKA SO THAT THE
POSITIVE PV ADVECTION PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF SW MN AND NW IA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
LAST 3 OR 4 HOURS OVER MOST OF SE SD AND MOST OF NW IA...WHERE 1
TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR 6 TO 10 HOURS FROM CANBY DOWN TO SPIRIT LAKE IOWA. WITH
ONLY 1/4 OR 1/2 INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED...THAT WOULD RESULT 3 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW.

THE SECOND ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE LOW TRACK...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.  BUT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND WITH PRESSURE RISES
AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AROUND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. FOR MOST AREAS...THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL AFTER THE SNOW ENDS OR IS ABOUT TO END.
THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL BE LOFTED SUCH
THAT BLOWING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY A FEW WIDE OPEN
LOCATIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM
CANBY MN TO SPIRIT LAKE WHERE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AND WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT THE TIME...THIS WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON. WHILE THERE COULD
BE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON EAST OF
HIGHWAY 59...MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SUCH THAT THE THREAT
FOR BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO DICKINSON COUNTY IOWA. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND SNOW. HOWEVER...ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE STEADY OR FALL MOST OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
IN NW IA WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HELP
TO DIMINISH WINDS. SHOULD SET UP A FAIRLY CHILLY NIGHT...BUT
CHALLENGE WILL BE IN DIAGNOSING POTENTIAL EXTENT FOR CLEARING
SKIES TO MAXIMIZE IMPACT OF THE SNOWFALL FROM TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTATIONS OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUDS IN
THE EAST TO START THE EVENING...AND SHIELD OF HIGHER CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY HANGS UP WITH A FEW LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND INITIATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
MAY KICK UP A COUPLE OF FLURRIES IN THE FAR WEST WHILE TEMPS IN
CLOUD LAYER REMAIN FAVORABLY COLD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
DIP BELOW ZERO THROUGH NORTHERN COUPLE OF TIERS...AND IF CAN
SUPERIMPOSE THE SNOW COVER...CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...COULD
PUSH 10 BELOW OR MORE AROUND BROOKINGS.

THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHERWISE...AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND IMPOSED DRY AIR SLIPS EASTWARD...AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE SLOWLY TRANSLATES NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF EARLY DAY FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE IN THE WEST...BUT WEAKENING OF QG LIFT AND WARMING OF
TEMPS IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SHOULD SPELL AND END TO ANY FLURRY
THREAT. HOWEVER...BY LATE DAY...ADVANCING BAROCLINICITY WILL START
TO FEEL IMPACT OF NEXT WAVE MOVING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. LIFT
FORCING LOOKS TO INCREASE...AND WILL AGAIN SEE A THREAT FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TOWARD KBKX-KMML AREA. OVERALL A FAIRLY COOL DAY AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES STABILIZE AT LOWER LEVELS WITH WARMING
ALOFT...A FAIRLY AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL COMPONENT.

MASSIVELY WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD
TO NON-DIURNAL TRENDS. LEADING EDGE OF WARMING GENERATING ENOUGH
LIFT AND SATURATION TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE EVENING. SUB INVERSION LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE
MOIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DEPTH
IS LIKELY TOO SHALLOW WITH LIFT EXPECTED ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER...
BUT A GREAT DEAL OF LOWER CLOUDS AS WELL AS A FREEZING DRIZZLE
AFTER SNOW CHANCE TAPERS OFF IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT TO SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE SOME
ISSUES TO WARMING TO DEAL WITH INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AS
WELL AS THE EXISTING SNOW COVER...BUT FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE NUMBERS
SUGGEST GRADIENT FROM MID 30S WHERE GREATER SNOWFALL OCCURS
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S LOWER BRULE AREAS.

SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE BEGIN TO EVOLVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
WAVE EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG ZONAL FLOW...DRIVING A SHARP ARCTIC
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. TIMING IS PRETTY SUSPECT AT THIS POINT...WHICH
LEAD TO POTENTIAL LARGE ERRORS IN TEMPS AS SOME RUNS TAKE FRONT
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA BEFORE 12Z SAT...WHILE OTHERS GIVE AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA OR DAY IN THE WARMER AIR BEFORE DRIVING
SOUTHWARD. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT STANDARD DEVIATIONS THAT
FAVOR SIDING TOWARD THE MEANS...WHICH ARE MUCH COOLER THAN
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. HAVE BLENDED IN HEAVIER WEIGHT TO ENSEMBLE
MEANS FOR SATURDAY.

IF ANY PERIOD OF THE LONGER RANGE WAS TO CONTAIN A PRECIPITATION
THREAT...IT WOULD LIKELY BE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...AS SHARP MID LEVEL FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD AND ZONAL JET
ENTRANCE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COLDEST OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
COLD SURFACE RIDGE EXPANDS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL SURVIVE THE MELT ON
FRIDAY...HAVE NOT GONE TOO EXTREME WITH COOLING UNDER RIDGE MONDAY
MORNING. AS STRONGLY AS CONDITIONS COOL...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATE
STRONG RIDGE BUILDING EARLY WEEK...WITH TEMPS ALOFT OUTPACING THE
WARMING AT LOW LEVELS. BY TUESDAY...STOUT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
GRADIENT MAY FINALLY ABLE TO DISPLACE THE COLD STABLE POOL...AND
TREND TOWARD EVEN WARMER IS WOULD SEEM TO BE IN THE CARDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION WILL BE DEVELOPING IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. RADAR
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER ND AND MOVING INTO
NORTHWESTERN SD. THIS AREA OF SNOW SHOULD MOVE INTO HON AROUND
00Z...FSD AROUND 03Z AND SUX AROUND 04Z. FOR SUX...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. VSBYS WITH SNOW
ARE EXPECTED BE FROM 1 TO 3 MILES OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES AROUND KFSD AND THEN EAST INTO SW MN AND NW IA. CIGS
WILL FALL BELOW 2000 FT AND LIKELY WILL FALL BELOW 1000 FT AROUND
KFSD TOWARD MIDNIGHT. AS THE SNOW ENDS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WED MORNING...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO 6 MILES BUT CIGS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 1000 FT THROUGH 18Z. ONE CONCERN ON WED MORNING IS
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS. WITHOUT FALLING SNOW...EXPECT THAT
THIS WILL MAINLY PRODUCE DRIFTING SNOW AND NOT IMPACT VISIBILITIES
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN CASE WINDS ARE STRONGER AND BLOWING
SNOW DOES DEVELOP.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-090.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ003.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER



000
FXUS63 KABR 252135
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
335 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH ABR JUST
HAVING RECENTLY REPORTED LIGHT SNOW. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGHEST ACCUMS STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL AID IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
THE SHORT RANGE/HI RES MODELS IN REGARDS TO SNOW TOTALS IN THE
JAMES VALLEY...WHICH MAKES TOTALS A BIT DIFFICULT HERE. ALL
DEPENDS ON WHERE THE PIVOTING TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE LOW. A FEW
MODELS SHOW IT TAKING PLACE MORE OVER ROBERTS AND TRAVERSE
COUNTIES WHERE OTHERS ARE MORE OVER NORTHERN BROWN AND MARSHALL
COUNTIES. THIS COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE OF ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
POSSIBLY. WILL LEAVE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADDITION FOR BIG STONE AND
TRAVERSE COUNTIES IF HI RES MODELS TREND TOWARDS HITTING THAT AREA
A BIT HARDER. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING. THIS
WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY SIGNIFICANT. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS
SNOWFALL AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY FOR MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. 925
MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WITH A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF FRESH SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY. TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE
FOR THURSDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD...WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. A WARM AIR
ADVECTION BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE AIR
MASS IS PRETTY DRY INITIALLY...BUT DOES LOOK TO GRADUALLY
SATURATE. FOR NOW LEFT ONLY A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG MID LEVEL WARM AIR PUSH...THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER HOWEVER...SO WILL JUST
MAINTAIN THE SNOW WORDING AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
MIXED PRECIP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MORE SEASONAL...BUT THEY DONT
LAST LONG AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TAKE OVER.

MODELS DO SHOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS STORM SYSTEM
MOVES IN. -SN/SN WILL ALSO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...FIRST ARRIVING IN KMBG AROUND 18Z...THEN KABR AROUND 21Z.
-SN/SN WILL MAKE IT INTO KATY NEAR 00Z THIS EVENING. OVER
KPIR...WARMER TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR -RA INITIALLY...WITH -RASN MIX
THIS EVENING. AS FOR THE CIGS THEMSELVES...WILL SEE THEM LOWER
INTO MVFR AS THE -SN/SN MOVES IN...WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
VSBY MAY DROP TO BELOW 1SM WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SN AND BLSN ONCE THE
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. KABR AND KATY WILL BE
AFFECTED MOST BY LOWER VSBY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SNOWFALL AND
BLSN AT TIMES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-
     MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 252135
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
335 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH ABR JUST
HAVING RECENTLY REPORTED LIGHT SNOW. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGHEST ACCUMS STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL AID IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
THE SHORT RANGE/HI RES MODELS IN REGARDS TO SNOW TOTALS IN THE
JAMES VALLEY...WHICH MAKES TOTALS A BIT DIFFICULT HERE. ALL
DEPENDS ON WHERE THE PIVOTING TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE LOW. A FEW
MODELS SHOW IT TAKING PLACE MORE OVER ROBERTS AND TRAVERSE
COUNTIES WHERE OTHERS ARE MORE OVER NORTHERN BROWN AND MARSHALL
COUNTIES. THIS COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE OF ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
POSSIBLY. WILL LEAVE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADDITION FOR BIG STONE AND
TRAVERSE COUNTIES IF HI RES MODELS TREND TOWARDS HITTING THAT AREA
A BIT HARDER. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING. THIS
WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY SIGNIFICANT. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS
SNOWFALL AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY FOR MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. 925
MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WITH A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF FRESH SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY. TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE
FOR THURSDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD...WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. A WARM AIR
ADVECTION BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE AIR
MASS IS PRETTY DRY INITIALLY...BUT DOES LOOK TO GRADUALLY
SATURATE. FOR NOW LEFT ONLY A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG MID LEVEL WARM AIR PUSH...THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER HOWEVER...SO WILL JUST
MAINTAIN THE SNOW WORDING AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
MIXED PRECIP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MORE SEASONAL...BUT THEY DONT
LAST LONG AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TAKE OVER.

MODELS DO SHOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS STORM SYSTEM
MOVES IN. -SN/SN WILL ALSO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...FIRST ARRIVING IN KMBG AROUND 18Z...THEN KABR AROUND 21Z.
-SN/SN WILL MAKE IT INTO KATY NEAR 00Z THIS EVENING. OVER
KPIR...WARMER TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR -RA INITIALLY...WITH -RASN MIX
THIS EVENING. AS FOR THE CIGS THEMSELVES...WILL SEE THEM LOWER
INTO MVFR AS THE -SN/SN MOVES IN...WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
VSBY MAY DROP TO BELOW 1SM WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SN AND BLSN ONCE THE
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. KABR AND KATY WILL BE
AFFECTED MOST BY LOWER VSBY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SNOWFALL AND
BLSN AT TIMES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-
     MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 252135
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
335 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH ABR JUST
HAVING RECENTLY REPORTED LIGHT SNOW. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGHEST ACCUMS STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL AID IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
THE SHORT RANGE/HI RES MODELS IN REGARDS TO SNOW TOTALS IN THE
JAMES VALLEY...WHICH MAKES TOTALS A BIT DIFFICULT HERE. ALL
DEPENDS ON WHERE THE PIVOTING TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE LOW. A FEW
MODELS SHOW IT TAKING PLACE MORE OVER ROBERTS AND TRAVERSE
COUNTIES WHERE OTHERS ARE MORE OVER NORTHERN BROWN AND MARSHALL
COUNTIES. THIS COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE OF ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
POSSIBLY. WILL LEAVE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADDITION FOR BIG STONE AND
TRAVERSE COUNTIES IF HI RES MODELS TREND TOWARDS HITTING THAT AREA
A BIT HARDER. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING. THIS
WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY SIGNIFICANT. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS
SNOWFALL AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY FOR MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. 925
MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WITH A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF FRESH SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY. TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE
FOR THURSDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD...WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. A WARM AIR
ADVECTION BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE AIR
MASS IS PRETTY DRY INITIALLY...BUT DOES LOOK TO GRADUALLY
SATURATE. FOR NOW LEFT ONLY A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG MID LEVEL WARM AIR PUSH...THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER HOWEVER...SO WILL JUST
MAINTAIN THE SNOW WORDING AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
MIXED PRECIP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MORE SEASONAL...BUT THEY DONT
LAST LONG AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TAKE OVER.

MODELS DO SHOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS STORM SYSTEM
MOVES IN. -SN/SN WILL ALSO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...FIRST ARRIVING IN KMBG AROUND 18Z...THEN KABR AROUND 21Z.
-SN/SN WILL MAKE IT INTO KATY NEAR 00Z THIS EVENING. OVER
KPIR...WARMER TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR -RA INITIALLY...WITH -RASN MIX
THIS EVENING. AS FOR THE CIGS THEMSELVES...WILL SEE THEM LOWER
INTO MVFR AS THE -SN/SN MOVES IN...WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
VSBY MAY DROP TO BELOW 1SM WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SN AND BLSN ONCE THE
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. KABR AND KATY WILL BE
AFFECTED MOST BY LOWER VSBY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SNOWFALL AND
BLSN AT TIMES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-
     MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 252135
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
335 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH ABR JUST
HAVING RECENTLY REPORTED LIGHT SNOW. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGHEST ACCUMS STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL AID IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
THE SHORT RANGE/HI RES MODELS IN REGARDS TO SNOW TOTALS IN THE
JAMES VALLEY...WHICH MAKES TOTALS A BIT DIFFICULT HERE. ALL
DEPENDS ON WHERE THE PIVOTING TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE LOW. A FEW
MODELS SHOW IT TAKING PLACE MORE OVER ROBERTS AND TRAVERSE
COUNTIES WHERE OTHERS ARE MORE OVER NORTHERN BROWN AND MARSHALL
COUNTIES. THIS COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE OF ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
POSSIBLY. WILL LEAVE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADDITION FOR BIG STONE AND
TRAVERSE COUNTIES IF HI RES MODELS TREND TOWARDS HITTING THAT AREA
A BIT HARDER. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING. THIS
WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY SIGNIFICANT. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS
SNOWFALL AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY FOR MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. 925
MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WITH A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF FRESH SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY. TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE
FOR THURSDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD...WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. A WARM AIR
ADVECTION BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE AIR
MASS IS PRETTY DRY INITIALLY...BUT DOES LOOK TO GRADUALLY
SATURATE. FOR NOW LEFT ONLY A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG MID LEVEL WARM AIR PUSH...THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER HOWEVER...SO WILL JUST
MAINTAIN THE SNOW WORDING AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
MIXED PRECIP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MORE SEASONAL...BUT THEY DONT
LAST LONG AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TAKE OVER.

MODELS DO SHOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS STORM SYSTEM
MOVES IN. -SN/SN WILL ALSO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...FIRST ARRIVING IN KMBG AROUND 18Z...THEN KABR AROUND 21Z.
-SN/SN WILL MAKE IT INTO KATY NEAR 00Z THIS EVENING. OVER
KPIR...WARMER TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR -RA INITIALLY...WITH -RASN MIX
THIS EVENING. AS FOR THE CIGS THEMSELVES...WILL SEE THEM LOWER
INTO MVFR AS THE -SN/SN MOVES IN...WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
VSBY MAY DROP TO BELOW 1SM WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SN AND BLSN ONCE THE
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. KABR AND KATY WILL BE
AFFECTED MOST BY LOWER VSBY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SNOWFALL AND
BLSN AT TIMES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-
     MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KUNR 252108
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
208 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP ANALYSES INDICATED A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST.
A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS ERN MT INTO NWRN
SD...AIDED BY A 150-KT UPPER JET. SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD AND NERN WY...BUT WITH A DOWNSLOPE HOLE OVER
PARTS OF SWRN SD. AREA WEBCAMS SHOWED AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW OVER
NERN WY...A TRACE OVER NWRN SD...AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE NRN BLKHLS.
A SFC LOW OVER WRN ND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH 2-5MB/3HR PRES RISES AS
IT MOVED SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-35 MPH BEHIND THE
LOW MOVING INTO NWRN SD.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH THU. FOR TNGT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES TO
NERN KS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TO SWRN IA. THIS WILL TAKE MOST OF THE
PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVNG...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF NWRN INTO SCNTRL SD. THE PREVIOUS WIND ADVY
LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NOT CHANGE. BLSN IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE WARM TEMPS AND LIMITED SNOWFALL. A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL SETUP OVER THE WRN CWA SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW GOING
THERE. COLDER AIR ALSO WILL FLOW INTO THE CWA TNGT GIVEN STRONG COLD
ADVECTION.

ON WED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE WRN CWA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS AIDING IN MESOSCALE LIFT ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER JET. DESPITE WEAK UPPER FORCING...THE
LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES SHOULD LEAD TO SNOW
OVER NERN WY INTO WRN SD. THIS WILL SPREAD NEWD WED NGT AS UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES.
SREF PTYPE PROBABILITIES AND NAM VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT A CHANCE
OF FZRA OVER PARTS OF NWRN SD LATE WED NGT INTO THU MRNG...SO HAVE
ADDED THAT TO THE FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SNOW/FREEZING RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING...
LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER NW SD.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE TEMPS...
PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY PUSHING THE WARM FRONT NE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
THE RESULT WILL BE DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING
AND FRIDAY. JUST HOW WARM THE SD PLAINS WILL GET ON THURSDAY
DEPENDS ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT...AS MODELS HAVE A 10-15
DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS THAT AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 30S ACROSS NW SD TO THE MID 50S IN PORTIONS OF NE WY AND SW
SD. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AS A SHALLOW
TROUGH CROSSES SRN CANADA INTO MT/ND. AGAIN HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE
POSITIONING OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE
MORNING...AS TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S...AND THEN SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES
HAVE A 45-50 DEGREE SPREAD FOR THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND ABOUT A
30 DEGREE SPREAD FOR LOWS...SO THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. THEN MODELS SHOW WARMER AIR ADVECTING BACK IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SNOW AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...BRINGING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT.
SOME LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AROUND THE NRN BLKHLS. LOW CLOUDS
WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
     SDZ014-025-026-031-032-043-072-073.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE






000
FXUS63 KABR 251741 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1141 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

OVERALL THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY
MINOR TIMING CHANGES WERE ADDRESSED FOR THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA HAS STARTED
SNOWING...AS EVIDENCED BY LEMMON WEB CAM AND RADAR RETURNS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE JAMES VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA STILL APPEAR TO GET WARM ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON
TO INTRODUCE SOME RAINFALL MENTION OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. NO CHANGES
TO HEADLINES OR SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL ADDRESS
THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CENTER AROUND A CLIPPER SYSTEM
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH LEADS TO HIGH FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN QUESTION LEFT UNANSWERED IS WHETHER OR NOT
CENTRAL SD SEES ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER SW SASKATCHEWAN...WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH PCPN LIKELY NOT REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL
AFTER 21Z. BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...PCPN COULD BEGIN AS RAIN...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PIERRE
AREA. HOWEVER DECENT CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WITH RAIN
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATER THIS EVENING. BASED ON THE
CURRENT LOW TRACK...THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE ALL
SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO TO FOUR INCHES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW DOES TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE PRAIRIE COTEAU.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. WINDS
SHOULD EASILY EXCEED WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER 0Z TONIGHT. THOUGHT
ABOUT ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA...HOWEVER AM UNCERTAIN
ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IF THE MISSOURI RIVER SEES ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...THEN A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED INSTEAD.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION BEYOND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD STARTS...WITH A SHORTWAVE SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THEN SETS UP...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
MONTANA TO THE LEE OF ROCKIES. THE MODELS AGREE THAT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THAT THE NORTHEAST MAY GET CLIPPED...SO WILL LEAVE A SMALL POP IN
THAT AREA. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ON
SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN AND BECOMES DOMINANT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY.

WILL SEE WAA OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS RISE INTO THE +2
TO +10 DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S AND
40S...WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLE HITTING 50 DEGREES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE WARMER AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD
PUNCH BEGINS ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...THEN
MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS STORM SYSTEM
MOVES IN. -SN/SN WILL ALSO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...FIRST ARRIVING IN KMBG AROUND 18Z...THEN KABR AROUND 21Z.
-SN/SN WILL MAKE IT INTO KATY NEAR 00Z THIS EVENING. OVER
KPIR...WARMER TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR -RA INITIALLY...WITH -RASN MIX
THIS EVENING. AS FOR THE CIGS THEMSELVES...WILL SEE THEM LOWER
INTO MVFR AS THE -SN/SN MOVES IN...WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
VSBY MAY DROP TO BELOW 1SM WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SN AND BLSN ONCE THE
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. KABR AND KATY WILL BE
AFFECTED MOST BY LOWER VSBY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SNOWFALL AND
BLSN AT TIMES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 251741 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1141 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

OVERALL THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY
MINOR TIMING CHANGES WERE ADDRESSED FOR THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA HAS STARTED
SNOWING...AS EVIDENCED BY LEMMON WEB CAM AND RADAR RETURNS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE JAMES VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA STILL APPEAR TO GET WARM ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON
TO INTRODUCE SOME RAINFALL MENTION OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. NO CHANGES
TO HEADLINES OR SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL ADDRESS
THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CENTER AROUND A CLIPPER SYSTEM
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH LEADS TO HIGH FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN QUESTION LEFT UNANSWERED IS WHETHER OR NOT
CENTRAL SD SEES ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER SW SASKATCHEWAN...WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH PCPN LIKELY NOT REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL
AFTER 21Z. BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...PCPN COULD BEGIN AS RAIN...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PIERRE
AREA. HOWEVER DECENT CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WITH RAIN
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATER THIS EVENING. BASED ON THE
CURRENT LOW TRACK...THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE ALL
SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO TO FOUR INCHES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW DOES TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE PRAIRIE COTEAU.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. WINDS
SHOULD EASILY EXCEED WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER 0Z TONIGHT. THOUGHT
ABOUT ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA...HOWEVER AM UNCERTAIN
ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IF THE MISSOURI RIVER SEES ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...THEN A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED INSTEAD.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION BEYOND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD STARTS...WITH A SHORTWAVE SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THEN SETS UP...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
MONTANA TO THE LEE OF ROCKIES. THE MODELS AGREE THAT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THAT THE NORTHEAST MAY GET CLIPPED...SO WILL LEAVE A SMALL POP IN
THAT AREA. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ON
SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN AND BECOMES DOMINANT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY.

WILL SEE WAA OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS RISE INTO THE +2
TO +10 DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S AND
40S...WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLE HITTING 50 DEGREES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE WARMER AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD
PUNCH BEGINS ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...THEN
MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS STORM SYSTEM
MOVES IN. -SN/SN WILL ALSO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...FIRST ARRIVING IN KMBG AROUND 18Z...THEN KABR AROUND 21Z.
-SN/SN WILL MAKE IT INTO KATY NEAR 00Z THIS EVENING. OVER
KPIR...WARMER TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR -RA INITIALLY...WITH -RASN MIX
THIS EVENING. AS FOR THE CIGS THEMSELVES...WILL SEE THEM LOWER
INTO MVFR AS THE -SN/SN MOVES IN...WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
VSBY MAY DROP TO BELOW 1SM WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SN AND BLSN ONCE THE
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. KABR AND KATY WILL BE
AFFECTED MOST BY LOWER VSBY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SNOWFALL AND
BLSN AT TIMES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 251725
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1125 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR EXPECTATION ON SNOW AND WIND FOR LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GFS HAS SHIFTED HEAVIER SNOWFALL INTO SW MN AND
NW IA SIMILAR TO NAM ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS FASTER. LOOKING AT THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWING A REAL STRONG WAVE IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...DO
LIKE THE THE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED NAM/RAP SOLUTION OVER THE
GFS AND CANADIAN REGIONAL. THAT WOULD KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SNOW INTO PORTIONS OF SW MN AND NW IA INTO WED MORNING. DOES LOOK
A LITTLE LESS WINDY ON WEDNESDAY AS MIXED LAYER IS RATHER SHALLOW
SO THAT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE 25 TO 30 KTS
INSTEAD OF 30 TO 35 KTS. EXPECT THIS WILL LIMIT BLOWING SNOW
OUTSIDE OF AREAS WHERE SNOW IS FALLING. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN SW MN INTO WED
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY FRONT WHICH MAY PRODUCED LOCALIZED
LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING
SNOW.

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD...
CURRENTLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...AND WILL OVERTAKE OUR EASTERN ZONES
FROM 12Z THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED AN ISOLATED
FLURRY WITH THE MENTION OF THESE CLOUDS FOR MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING...AS THE CLOUD LAYER IS ON THE EDGE OF DENDRITIC
TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 TO -12C. THEN ONCE THESE CLOUDS EXIT...MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM WEST TO EAST WHICH ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVES RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD RIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ITS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS EVER SO IMPORTANT WITH THESE SYSTEMS...
AS THE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL EXIST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. FIRST OF ALL TODAY...AHEAD OF THIS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. MOISTURE DEPTH SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIP CHANCES REALLY WILL NOT START IN OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING...
THE PRECIP IN THOSE AREAS WILL EITHER BE LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW MIX. THEN FOR TONIGHT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...MODEL CONSENSUS
INCLUDING THE ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ROUGHLY FROM NEAR
HURON...TO JUST WEST OF SIOUX FALLS...AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO CLOSE TO
STORM LAKE IA BY 12Z WED. THEREFORE CURRENTLY...MUCH OF THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL OF ABOUT 1.5 TO CLOSE TO 3.0 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THAT LINE...CUTTING OFF RAPIDLY TO THE WEST. WHAT OUR
WESTERN ZONES WILL HAVE HOWEVER IS WIND. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POUR INTO THOSE
LOCATIONS AS THEIR THREAT OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MOVES TO THE EAST.

THEREFORE DID NOT ISSUE HEADLINES YET. THIS IS BECAUSE AT THIS TIME
A WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE SNOW SHOULD
BE FALLING EAST OF THERE. WHERE MOST OF THE SNOW DOES FALL TONIGHT
GENERALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS LEADING
TO WINDS WHICH ARE NOT VERY STRONG. SO THEREFORE IT DOES NOT MAKE A
LOT OF SENSE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES WHEN SNOW AMOUNTS BY ITSELF IS NOT REACHING CRITERIA.
SO WE WILL NEED WIND AND BLOWING SNOW TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AND BY THE TIME THIS SCENARIO GETS JUXTAPOSED WITH
FALLING SNOW...WE ARE NUDGING INTO THE THIRD PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN...THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY ADJUST WESTWARD...
THUS THRUSTING MORE OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO A DECENT SNOW BAND.
WILL MENTION ALL OF THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE NATURE OF WEATHER PROBLEMS WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING WHAT HIGHLIGHTS
ARE NEEDED...WILL DEPEND HOW THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BEHAVES TODAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM TO BE A GIVEN
FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT FAR FROM THAT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE KEY WILL BE THE TIMING...AMOUNT...AND LOCATION OF THE
BEST SNOW. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE THE UPPER SYSTEM DIGGING
A LITTLE MORE...SLOWING DOWN SOME...AND WRAPPING UP MORE AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD NOT ONLY BRING BETTER SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT SOME
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE BEST SNOW FALLING AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF AS IT STANDS NOW. THIS COULD
PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A LITTLE WHILE. FOR NOW IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY AND/OR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST MN SEEMS
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS FOR THE BETTER SNOW
POTENTIAL...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE WITH A SYSTEM SLOWDOWN AND/OR A
TRACK OF THE BEST SNOW INTO A LITTLE HIGHER WINDS. THE FORECAST AND
ESPECIALLY THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL REVEAL THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS AND THE STRONG WINDS BUT DETAILS SEEM
TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE SPECIFIC ADVISORIES.

VERY STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN THE MORNING EAST. WILL MENTION BLOWING SNOW
WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...TO LINGER IN PATCHY FORM INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW NO LONGER WILL BE FALLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING WEDNESDAY...AND OF COURSE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEDNESDAY...THEN IT LOOS LIKE
CLOUDS AT MID AND POSSIBLY LOW LEVELS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS
ALOFT. AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT OTHER THAN THE
WARM ADVECTION...WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER
SIDE OF ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT SOME TEENS LOWS SOUTHWEST
CORNER. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE TENS NORTHEAST TO
THE 30S SOUTHWEST AS SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.

FRIDAY WILL BRING A DECENT WARMUP...THEN A COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
OVERT HE WEEKEND...WITH WARMING TRYING TO START BACK UP AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP THE WARMING FRIDAY TO 30S HIGHS NORTHEAST HALF
WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER...TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER STILL. HOWEVER...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLE SNOW
COVER EFFECT...THE SUN ANGLE IS GETTING LOW AND ALLOWING LESS PUNCH
TO DAYTIME HEATING. IT IS A CLOSE CALL ON ADDING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AROUND SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WARM ADVECTION STARTING UP BY MONDAY SEEMS
TO WEAK THROUGH THAT TIME TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THAT DAY...BUT
THERE WILL BE FURTHER CHANCES TO REVISIT THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD.
IN ANY EVENT...THE BIGGEST WEATHER EVENT WILL BE EARLY IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION WILL BE DEVELOPING IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. RADAR
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER ND AND MOVING INTO
NORTHWESTERN SD. THIS AREA OF SNOW SHOULD MOVE INTO HON AROUND
00Z...FSD AROUND 03Z AND SUX AROUND 04Z. FOR SUX...SURFACE
TEMEPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. VSBYS WITH SNOW
ARE EXPECTED BE FROM 1 TO 3 MILES OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOWEST
VISIBILITES AROUND KFSD AND THEN EAST INTO SW MN AND NW IA. CIGS
WILL FALL BELOW 2000 FT AND LIKELY WILL FALL BELOW 1000 FT AROUND
KFSD TOWARD MIDNIGHT. AS THE SNOW ENDS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WED MORNING...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO 6 MILES BUT CIGS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 1000 FT THROUGH 18Z. ONE CONCERN ON WED MORNING IS
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS. WITHOUT FALLING SNOW...EXPECT THAT
THIS WILL MAINLY PRODUCE DRIFTING SNOW AND NOT IMPACT VISIBILITIES
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN CASE WINDS ARE STRONGER AND BLOWING
SNOW DOES DEVELOP.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER



000
FXUS63 KFSD 251725
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1125 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR EXPECTATION ON SNOW AND WIND FOR LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GFS HAS SHIFTED HEAVIER SNOWFALL INTO SW MN AND
NW IA SIMILAR TO NAM ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS FASTER. LOOKING AT THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWING A REAL STRONG WAVE IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...DO
LIKE THE THE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED NAM/RAP SOLUTION OVER THE
GFS AND CANADIAN REGIONAL. THAT WOULD KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SNOW INTO PORTIONS OF SW MN AND NW IA INTO WED MORNING. DOES LOOK
A LITTLE LESS WINDY ON WEDNESDAY AS MIXED LAYER IS RATHER SHALLOW
SO THAT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE 25 TO 30 KTS
INSTEAD OF 30 TO 35 KTS. EXPECT THIS WILL LIMIT BLOWING SNOW
OUTSIDE OF AREAS WHERE SNOW IS FALLING. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN SW MN INTO WED
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY FRONT WHICH MAY PRODUCED LOCALIZED
LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING
SNOW.

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD...
CURRENTLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...AND WILL OVERTAKE OUR EASTERN ZONES
FROM 12Z THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED AN ISOLATED
FLURRY WITH THE MENTION OF THESE CLOUDS FOR MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING...AS THE CLOUD LAYER IS ON THE EDGE OF DENDRITIC
TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 TO -12C. THEN ONCE THESE CLOUDS EXIT...MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM WEST TO EAST WHICH ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVES RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD RIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ITS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS EVER SO IMPORTANT WITH THESE SYSTEMS...
AS THE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL EXIST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. FIRST OF ALL TODAY...AHEAD OF THIS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. MOISTURE DEPTH SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIP CHANCES REALLY WILL NOT START IN OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING...
THE PRECIP IN THOSE AREAS WILL EITHER BE LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW MIX. THEN FOR TONIGHT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...MODEL CONSENSUS
INCLUDING THE ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ROUGHLY FROM NEAR
HURON...TO JUST WEST OF SIOUX FALLS...AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO CLOSE TO
STORM LAKE IA BY 12Z WED. THEREFORE CURRENTLY...MUCH OF THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL OF ABOUT 1.5 TO CLOSE TO 3.0 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THAT LINE...CUTTING OFF RAPIDLY TO THE WEST. WHAT OUR
WESTERN ZONES WILL HAVE HOWEVER IS WIND. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POUR INTO THOSE
LOCATIONS AS THEIR THREAT OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MOVES TO THE EAST.

THEREFORE DID NOT ISSUE HEADLINES YET. THIS IS BECAUSE AT THIS TIME
A WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE SNOW SHOULD
BE FALLING EAST OF THERE. WHERE MOST OF THE SNOW DOES FALL TONIGHT
GENERALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS LEADING
TO WINDS WHICH ARE NOT VERY STRONG. SO THEREFORE IT DOES NOT MAKE A
LOT OF SENSE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES WHEN SNOW AMOUNTS BY ITSELF IS NOT REACHING CRITERIA.
SO WE WILL NEED WIND AND BLOWING SNOW TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AND BY THE TIME THIS SCENARIO GETS JUXTAPOSED WITH
FALLING SNOW...WE ARE NUDGING INTO THE THIRD PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN...THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY ADJUST WESTWARD...
THUS THRUSTING MORE OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO A DECENT SNOW BAND.
WILL MENTION ALL OF THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE NATURE OF WEATHER PROBLEMS WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING WHAT HIGHLIGHTS
ARE NEEDED...WILL DEPEND HOW THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BEHAVES TODAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM TO BE A GIVEN
FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT FAR FROM THAT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE KEY WILL BE THE TIMING...AMOUNT...AND LOCATION OF THE
BEST SNOW. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE THE UPPER SYSTEM DIGGING
A LITTLE MORE...SLOWING DOWN SOME...AND WRAPPING UP MORE AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD NOT ONLY BRING BETTER SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT SOME
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE BEST SNOW FALLING AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF AS IT STANDS NOW. THIS COULD
PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A LITTLE WHILE. FOR NOW IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY AND/OR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST MN SEEMS
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS FOR THE BETTER SNOW
POTENTIAL...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE WITH A SYSTEM SLOWDOWN AND/OR A
TRACK OF THE BEST SNOW INTO A LITTLE HIGHER WINDS. THE FORECAST AND
ESPECIALLY THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL REVEAL THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS AND THE STRONG WINDS BUT DETAILS SEEM
TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE SPECIFIC ADVISORIES.

VERY STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN THE MORNING EAST. WILL MENTION BLOWING SNOW
WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...TO LINGER IN PATCHY FORM INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW NO LONGER WILL BE FALLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING WEDNESDAY...AND OF COURSE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEDNESDAY...THEN IT LOOS LIKE
CLOUDS AT MID AND POSSIBLY LOW LEVELS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS
ALOFT. AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT OTHER THAN THE
WARM ADVECTION...WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER
SIDE OF ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT SOME TEENS LOWS SOUTHWEST
CORNER. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE TENS NORTHEAST TO
THE 30S SOUTHWEST AS SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.

FRIDAY WILL BRING A DECENT WARMUP...THEN A COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
OVERT HE WEEKEND...WITH WARMING TRYING TO START BACK UP AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP THE WARMING FRIDAY TO 30S HIGHS NORTHEAST HALF
WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER...TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER STILL. HOWEVER...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLE SNOW
COVER EFFECT...THE SUN ANGLE IS GETTING LOW AND ALLOWING LESS PUNCH
TO DAYTIME HEATING. IT IS A CLOSE CALL ON ADDING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AROUND SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WARM ADVECTION STARTING UP BY MONDAY SEEMS
TO WEAK THROUGH THAT TIME TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THAT DAY...BUT
THERE WILL BE FURTHER CHANCES TO REVISIT THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD.
IN ANY EVENT...THE BIGGEST WEATHER EVENT WILL BE EARLY IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION WILL BE DEVELOPING IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. RADAR
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER ND AND MOVING INTO
NORTHWESTERN SD. THIS AREA OF SNOW SHOULD MOVE INTO HON AROUND
00Z...FSD AROUND 03Z AND SUX AROUND 04Z. FOR SUX...SURFACE
TEMEPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. VSBYS WITH SNOW
ARE EXPECTED BE FROM 1 TO 3 MILES OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOWEST
VISIBILITES AROUND KFSD AND THEN EAST INTO SW MN AND NW IA. CIGS
WILL FALL BELOW 2000 FT AND LIKELY WILL FALL BELOW 1000 FT AROUND
KFSD TOWARD MIDNIGHT. AS THE SNOW ENDS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WED MORNING...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO 6 MILES BUT CIGS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 1000 FT THROUGH 18Z. ONE CONCERN ON WED MORNING IS
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS. WITHOUT FALLING SNOW...EXPECT THAT
THIS WILL MAINLY PRODUCE DRIFTING SNOW AND NOT IMPACT VISIBILITIES
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN CASE WINDS ARE STRONGER AND BLOWING
SNOW DOES DEVELOP.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER




000
FXUS63 KUNR 251716
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1016 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MORNING UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WITH A RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MONTANA WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER ALBERTA WITH DEEPENING LEE
SIDE SFC TROUGH EAST OF THE NRN ROCKIES.

MID-HIGH LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THIS MORNING...SPREADING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS THE PRECIP MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT GIVEN THE WARMING PROFILES THERE MAY BE
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS AFTN. UP TO
A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...BUT WITH SFC TEMPS RISING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK LATER THIS MORNING...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROADS
THERE MAY BE LIMITED. UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE BLACK HILLS TODAY WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

THE SFC LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
MID-DAY INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME VERY WINDY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD AND TIGHTENS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL THIS EVENING BUT THEN GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER BY THE
TIME THE WIND PICKS UP OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTN
AND DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS BLOWING SNOW SHOULDN/T BE MUCH OF A
PROBLEM. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IF THE PRECIPITATION LINGERS LONGER
OR THE SNOW IS A BIT HEAVIER OVER NWRN SD WHEN THE WIND INCREASES
THEN THE WIND ADVISORY THERE MAY NEED TO BE CHANGED TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. 06 NAM SHOWS 850MB
WINDS INCREASING TO 45-50KTS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFT/EVE.
HOWEVER THERE ISN/T A VERY STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ALONG OR
DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
MIXING AND THE POTENTIAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SFC SO IT LOOKS
LIKE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR THE SITUATION.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AS A NE-SW ORIENTED REGION OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WORKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND RELATIVELY
WARMER AIR ALOFT OVER RIDES THE COLDER AIR AT THE SFC.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP THANKSGIVING DAY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING THE
WARM FRONT NE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY AND
MUCH WARMER WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY. CNTRL SD WILL REACH
THE 30S AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. FARTHER WEST INTO THE WARM SECTOR...HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH
WELL INTO THE 40S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AS A SHALLOW TROUGH
CROSSES SRN CANADA INTO MT/ND. IF THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT...TEMPS
WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY INTO THE TEENS AND
20S...AND THEN SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY...BUT THEN MODELS SHOW WARMER AIR ADVECTING
BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SOME SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE/CAA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS QPF WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1013 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SNOW AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AROUND THE NRN BLKHLS. LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
     SDZ014-025-026-031-032-043-072-073.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
     SDZ001-002-012-013.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE






000
FXUS63 KUNR 251716
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1016 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MORNING UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WITH A RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MONTANA WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER ALBERTA WITH DEEPENING LEE
SIDE SFC TROUGH EAST OF THE NRN ROCKIES.

MID-HIGH LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THIS MORNING...SPREADING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS THE PRECIP MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT GIVEN THE WARMING PROFILES THERE MAY BE
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS AFTN. UP TO
A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...BUT WITH SFC TEMPS RISING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK LATER THIS MORNING...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROADS
THERE MAY BE LIMITED. UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE BLACK HILLS TODAY WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

THE SFC LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
MID-DAY INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME VERY WINDY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD AND TIGHTENS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL THIS EVENING BUT THEN GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER BY THE
TIME THE WIND PICKS UP OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTN
AND DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS BLOWING SNOW SHOULDN/T BE MUCH OF A
PROBLEM. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IF THE PRECIPITATION LINGERS LONGER
OR THE SNOW IS A BIT HEAVIER OVER NWRN SD WHEN THE WIND INCREASES
THEN THE WIND ADVISORY THERE MAY NEED TO BE CHANGED TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. 06 NAM SHOWS 850MB
WINDS INCREASING TO 45-50KTS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFT/EVE.
HOWEVER THERE ISN/T A VERY STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ALONG OR
DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
MIXING AND THE POTENTIAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SFC SO IT LOOKS
LIKE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR THE SITUATION.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AS A NE-SW ORIENTED REGION OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WORKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND RELATIVELY
WARMER AIR ALOFT OVER RIDES THE COLDER AIR AT THE SFC.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP THANKSGIVING DAY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING THE
WARM FRONT NE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY AND
MUCH WARMER WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY. CNTRL SD WILL REACH
THE 30S AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. FARTHER WEST INTO THE WARM SECTOR...HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH
WELL INTO THE 40S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AS A SHALLOW TROUGH
CROSSES SRN CANADA INTO MT/ND. IF THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT...TEMPS
WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY INTO THE TEENS AND
20S...AND THEN SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY...BUT THEN MODELS SHOW WARMER AIR ADVECTING
BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SOME SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE/CAA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS QPF WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1013 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SNOW AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AROUND THE NRN BLKHLS. LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
     SDZ014-025-026-031-032-043-072-073.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
     SDZ001-002-012-013.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KABR 251700 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1100 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY

OVERALL THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY
MINOR TIMING CHANGES WERE ADDRESSED FOR THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA HAS STARTED
SNOWING...AS EVIDENCED BY LEMMON WEB CAM AND RADAR RETURNS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE JAMES VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA STILL APPEAR TO GET WARM ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON
TO INTRODUCE SOME RAINFALL MENTION OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. NO CHANGES
TO HEADLINES OR SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL ADDRESS
THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CENTER AROUND A CLIPPER SYSTEM
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH LEADS TO HIGH FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN QUESTION LEFT UNANSWERED IS WHETHER OR NOT
CENTRAL SD SEES ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER SW SASKATCHEWAN...WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH PCPN LIKELY NOT REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL
AFTER 21Z. BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...PCPN COULD BEGIN AS RAIN...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PIERRE
AREA. HOWEVER DECENT CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WITH RAIN
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATER THIS EVENING. BASED ON THE
CURRENT LOW TRACK...THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE ALL
SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO TO FOUR INCHES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW DOES TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE PRAIRIE COTEAU.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. WINDS
SHOULD EASILY EXCEED WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER 0Z TONIGHT. THOUGHT
ABOUT ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA...HOWEVER AM UNCERTAIN
ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IF THE MISSOURI RIVER SEES ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...THEN A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED INSTEAD.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION BEYOND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD STARTS...WITH A SHORTWAVE SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THEN SETS UP...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
MONTANA TO THE LEE OF ROCKIES. THE MODELS AGREE THAT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THAT THE NORTHEAST MAY GET CLIPPED...SO WILL LEAVE A SMALL POP IN
THAT AREA. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ON
SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN AND BECOMES DOMINANT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY.

WILL SEE WAA OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS RISE INTO THE +2
TO +10 DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S AND
40S...WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLE HITTING 50 DEGREES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE WARMER AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD
PUNCH BEGINS ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...THEN
MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA BEGINNING SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
CLIPPER SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WILL START OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BECOME ALL SNOW AS IT
SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBYS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES AT KMBG...KABR
AND KATY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST. THE WINDS MAY AID IN
FURTHER VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 251655
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1055 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR EXPECTATION ON SNOW AND WIND FOR LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GFS HAS SHIFTED HEAVIER SNOWFALL INTO SW MN AND
NW IA SIMILAR TO NAM ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS FASTER. LOOKING AT THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWING A REAL STRONG WAVE IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...DO
LIKE THE THE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED NAM/RAP SOLUTION OVER THE
GFS AND CANADIAN REGIONAL. THAT WOULD KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SNOW INTO PORTIONS OF SW MN AND NW IA INTO WED MORNING. DOES LOOK
A LITTLE LESS WINDY ON WEDNESDAY AS MIXED LAYER IS RATHER SHALLOW
SO THAT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE 25 TO 30 KTS
INSTEAD OF 30 TO 35 KTS. EXPECT THIS WILL LIMIT BLOWING SNOW
OUTSIDE OF AREAS WHERE SNOW IS FALLING. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN SW MN INTO WED
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY FRONT WHICH MAY PRODUCED LOCALIZED
LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING
SNOW.

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD...
CURRENTLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...AND WILL OVERTAKE OUR EASTERN ZONES
FROM 12Z THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED AN ISOLATED
FLURRY WITH THE MENTION OF THESE CLOUDS FOR MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING...AS THE CLOUD LAYER IS ON THE EDGE OF DENDRITIC
TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 TO -12C. THEN ONCE THESE CLOUDS EXIT...MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM WEST TO EAST WHICH ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVES RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD RIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ITS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS EVER SO IMPORTANT WITH THESE SYSTEMS...
AS THE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL EXIST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. FIRST OF ALL TODAY...AHEAD OF THIS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. MOISTURE DEPTH SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIP CHANCES REALLY WILL NOT START IN OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING...
THE PRECIP IN THOSE AREAS WILL EITHER BE LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW MIX. THEN FOR TONIGHT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...MODEL CONSENSUS
INCLUDING THE ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ROUGHLY FROM NEAR
HURON...TO JUST WEST OF SIOUX FALLS...AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO CLOSE TO
STORM LAKE IA BY 12Z WED. THEREFORE CURRENTLY...MUCH OF THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL OF ABOUT 1.5 TO CLOSE TO 3.0 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THAT LINE...CUTTING OFF RAPIDLY TO THE WEST. WHAT OUR
WESTERN ZONES WILL HAVE HOWEVER IS WIND. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POUR INTO THOSE
LOCATIONS AS THEIR THREAT OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MOVES TO THE EAST.

THEREFORE DID NOT ISSUE HEADLINES YET. THIS IS BECAUSE AT THIS TIME
A WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE SNOW SHOULD
BE FALLING EAST OF THERE. WHERE MOST OF THE SNOW DOES FALL TONIGHT
GENERALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS LEADING
TO WINDS WHICH ARE NOT VERY STRONG. SO THEREFORE IT DOES NOT MAKE A
LOT OF SENSE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES WHEN SNOW AMOUNTS BY ITSELF IS NOT REACHING CRITERIA.
SO WE WILL NEED WIND AND BLOWING SNOW TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AND BY THE TIME THIS SCENARIO GETS JUXTAPOSED WITH
FALLING SNOW...WE ARE NUDGING INTO THE THIRD PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN...THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY ADJUST WESTWARD...
THUS THRUSTING MORE OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO A DECENT SNOW BAND.
WILL MENTION ALL OF THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE NATURE OF WEATHER PROBLEMS WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING WHAT HIGHLIGHTS
ARE NEEDED...WILL DEPEND HOW THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BEHAVES TODAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM TO BE A GIVEN
FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT FAR FROM THAT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE KEY WILL BE THE TIMING...AMOUNT...AND LOCATION OF THE
BEST SNOW. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE THE UPPER SYSTEM DIGGING
A LITTLE MORE...SLOWING DOWN SOME...AND WRAPPING UP MORE AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD NOT ONLY BRING BETTER SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT SOME
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE BEST SNOW FALLING AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF AS IT STANDS NOW. THIS COULD
PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A LITTLE WHILE. FOR NOW IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY AND/OR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST MN SEEMS
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS FOR THE BETTER SNOW
POTENTIAL...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE WITH A SYSTEM SLOWDOWN AND/OR A
TRACK OF THE BEST SNOW INTO A LITTLE HIGHER WINDS. THE FORECAST AND
ESPECIALLY THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL REVEAL THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS AND THE STRONG WINDS BUT DETAILS SEEM
TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE SPECIFIC ADVISORIES.

VERY STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN THE MORNING EAST. WILL MENTION BLOWING SNOW
WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...TO LINGER IN PATCHY FORM INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW NO LONGER WILL BE FALLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING WEDNESDAY...AND OF COURSE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEDNESDAY...THEN IT LOOS LIKE
CLOUDS AT MID AND POSSIBLY LOW LEVELS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS
ALOFT. AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT OTHER THAN THE
WARM ADVECTION...WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER
SIDE OF ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT SOME TEENS LOWS SOUTHWEST
CORNER. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE TENS NORTHEAST TO
THE 30S SOUTHWEST AS SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.

FRIDAY WILL BRING A DECENT WARMUP...THEN A COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
OVERT HE WEEKEND...WITH WARMING TRYING TO START BACK UP AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP THE WARMING FRIDAY TO 30S HIGHS NORTHEAST HALF
WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER...TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER STILL. HOWEVER...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLE SNOW
COVER EFFECT...THE SUN ANGLE IS GETTING LOW AND ALLOWING LESS PUNCH
TO DAYTIME HEATING. IT IS A CLOSE CALL ON ADDING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AROUND SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WARM ADVECTION STARTING UP BY MONDAY SEEMS
TO WEAK THROUGH THAT TIME TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THAT DAY...BUT
THERE WILL BE FURTHER CHANCES TO REVISIT THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD.
IN ANY EVENT...THE BIGGEST WEATHER EVENT WILL BE EARLY IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLOUD CEILINGS MAY BE CLOSE TO UPPER END MVFR AT KHON THROUGH MID
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR TODAY DUE TO
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL
RAPIDLY CHANGE THIS EVENING AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE TONIGHTS
WEATHER WITH SNOWFALL...PERHAPS MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING
AT KSUX. IN ADDITION...ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW...IT
WILL BECOME VERY WINDY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. WEST OF THE JAMES WILL HAVE NORTHWEST WINDS FREQUENTLY
GUSTING AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS. KHON WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THESE
STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KFSD 251655
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1055 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR EXPECTATION ON SNOW AND WIND FOR LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GFS HAS SHIFTED HEAVIER SNOWFALL INTO SW MN AND
NW IA SIMILAR TO NAM ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS FASTER. LOOKING AT THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWING A REAL STRONG WAVE IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...DO
LIKE THE THE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED NAM/RAP SOLUTION OVER THE
GFS AND CANADIAN REGIONAL. THAT WOULD KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SNOW INTO PORTIONS OF SW MN AND NW IA INTO WED MORNING. DOES LOOK
A LITTLE LESS WINDY ON WEDNESDAY AS MIXED LAYER IS RATHER SHALLOW
SO THAT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE 25 TO 30 KTS
INSTEAD OF 30 TO 35 KTS. EXPECT THIS WILL LIMIT BLOWING SNOW
OUTSIDE OF AREAS WHERE SNOW IS FALLING. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN SW MN INTO WED
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY FRONT WHICH MAY PRODUCED LOCALIZED
LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING
SNOW.

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD...
CURRENTLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...AND WILL OVERTAKE OUR EASTERN ZONES
FROM 12Z THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED AN ISOLATED
FLURRY WITH THE MENTION OF THESE CLOUDS FOR MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING...AS THE CLOUD LAYER IS ON THE EDGE OF DENDRITIC
TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 TO -12C. THEN ONCE THESE CLOUDS EXIT...MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM WEST TO EAST WHICH ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVES RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD RIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ITS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS EVER SO IMPORTANT WITH THESE SYSTEMS...
AS THE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL EXIST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. FIRST OF ALL TODAY...AHEAD OF THIS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. MOISTURE DEPTH SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIP CHANCES REALLY WILL NOT START IN OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING...
THE PRECIP IN THOSE AREAS WILL EITHER BE LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW MIX. THEN FOR TONIGHT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...MODEL CONSENSUS
INCLUDING THE ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ROUGHLY FROM NEAR
HURON...TO JUST WEST OF SIOUX FALLS...AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO CLOSE TO
STORM LAKE IA BY 12Z WED. THEREFORE CURRENTLY...MUCH OF THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL OF ABOUT 1.5 TO CLOSE TO 3.0 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THAT LINE...CUTTING OFF RAPIDLY TO THE WEST. WHAT OUR
WESTERN ZONES WILL HAVE HOWEVER IS WIND. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POUR INTO THOSE
LOCATIONS AS THEIR THREAT OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MOVES TO THE EAST.

THEREFORE DID NOT ISSUE HEADLINES YET. THIS IS BECAUSE AT THIS TIME
A WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE SNOW SHOULD
BE FALLING EAST OF THERE. WHERE MOST OF THE SNOW DOES FALL TONIGHT
GENERALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS LEADING
TO WINDS WHICH ARE NOT VERY STRONG. SO THEREFORE IT DOES NOT MAKE A
LOT OF SENSE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES WHEN SNOW AMOUNTS BY ITSELF IS NOT REACHING CRITERIA.
SO WE WILL NEED WIND AND BLOWING SNOW TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AND BY THE TIME THIS SCENARIO GETS JUXTAPOSED WITH
FALLING SNOW...WE ARE NUDGING INTO THE THIRD PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN...THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY ADJUST WESTWARD...
THUS THRUSTING MORE OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO A DECENT SNOW BAND.
WILL MENTION ALL OF THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE NATURE OF WEATHER PROBLEMS WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING WHAT HIGHLIGHTS
ARE NEEDED...WILL DEPEND HOW THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BEHAVES TODAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM TO BE A GIVEN
FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT FAR FROM THAT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE KEY WILL BE THE TIMING...AMOUNT...AND LOCATION OF THE
BEST SNOW. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE THE UPPER SYSTEM DIGGING
A LITTLE MORE...SLOWING DOWN SOME...AND WRAPPING UP MORE AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD NOT ONLY BRING BETTER SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT SOME
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE BEST SNOW FALLING AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF AS IT STANDS NOW. THIS COULD
PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A LITTLE WHILE. FOR NOW IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY AND/OR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST MN SEEMS
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS FOR THE BETTER SNOW
POTENTIAL...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE WITH A SYSTEM SLOWDOWN AND/OR A
TRACK OF THE BEST SNOW INTO A LITTLE HIGHER WINDS. THE FORECAST AND
ESPECIALLY THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL REVEAL THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS AND THE STRONG WINDS BUT DETAILS SEEM
TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE SPECIFIC ADVISORIES.

VERY STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN THE MORNING EAST. WILL MENTION BLOWING SNOW
WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...TO LINGER IN PATCHY FORM INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW NO LONGER WILL BE FALLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING WEDNESDAY...AND OF COURSE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEDNESDAY...THEN IT LOOS LIKE
CLOUDS AT MID AND POSSIBLY LOW LEVELS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS
ALOFT. AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT OTHER THAN THE
WARM ADVECTION...WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER
SIDE OF ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT SOME TEENS LOWS SOUTHWEST
CORNER. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE TENS NORTHEAST TO
THE 30S SOUTHWEST AS SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.

FRIDAY WILL BRING A DECENT WARMUP...THEN A COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
OVERT HE WEEKEND...WITH WARMING TRYING TO START BACK UP AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP THE WARMING FRIDAY TO 30S HIGHS NORTHEAST HALF
WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER...TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER STILL. HOWEVER...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLE SNOW
COVER EFFECT...THE SUN ANGLE IS GETTING LOW AND ALLOWING LESS PUNCH
TO DAYTIME HEATING. IT IS A CLOSE CALL ON ADDING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AROUND SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WARM ADVECTION STARTING UP BY MONDAY SEEMS
TO WEAK THROUGH THAT TIME TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THAT DAY...BUT
THERE WILL BE FURTHER CHANCES TO REVISIT THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD.
IN ANY EVENT...THE BIGGEST WEATHER EVENT WILL BE EARLY IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLOUD CEILINGS MAY BE CLOSE TO UPPER END MVFR AT KHON THROUGH MID
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR TODAY DUE TO
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL
RAPIDLY CHANGE THIS EVENING AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE TONIGHTS
WEATHER WITH SNOWFALL...PERHAPS MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING
AT KSUX. IN ADDITION...ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW...IT
WILL BECOME VERY WINDY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. WEST OF THE JAMES WILL HAVE NORTHWEST WINDS FREQUENTLY
GUSTING AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS. KHON WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THESE
STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251655
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1055 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR EXPECTATION ON SNOW AND WIND FOR LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GFS HAS SHIFTED HEAVIER SNOWFALL INTO SW MN AND
NW IA SIMILAR TO NAM ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS FASTER. LOOKING AT THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWING A REAL STRONG WAVE IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...DO
LIKE THE THE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED NAM/RAP SOLUTION OVER THE
GFS AND CANADIAN REGIONAL. THAT WOULD KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SNOW INTO PORTIONS OF SW MN AND NW IA INTO WED MORNING. DOES LOOK
A LITTLE LESS WINDY ON WEDNESDAY AS MIXED LAYER IS RATHER SHALLOW
SO THAT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE 25 TO 30 KTS
INSTEAD OF 30 TO 35 KTS. EXPECT THIS WILL LIMIT BLOWING SNOW
OUTSIDE OF AREAS WHERE SNOW IS FALLING. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN SW MN INTO WED
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY FRONT WHICH MAY PRODUCED LOCALIZED
LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING
SNOW.

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD...
CURRENTLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...AND WILL OVERTAKE OUR EASTERN ZONES
FROM 12Z THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED AN ISOLATED
FLURRY WITH THE MENTION OF THESE CLOUDS FOR MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING...AS THE CLOUD LAYER IS ON THE EDGE OF DENDRITIC
TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 TO -12C. THEN ONCE THESE CLOUDS EXIT...MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM WEST TO EAST WHICH ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVES RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD RIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ITS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS EVER SO IMPORTANT WITH THESE SYSTEMS...
AS THE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL EXIST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. FIRST OF ALL TODAY...AHEAD OF THIS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. MOISTURE DEPTH SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIP CHANCES REALLY WILL NOT START IN OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING...
THE PRECIP IN THOSE AREAS WILL EITHER BE LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW MIX. THEN FOR TONIGHT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...MODEL CONSENSUS
INCLUDING THE ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ROUGHLY FROM NEAR
HURON...TO JUST WEST OF SIOUX FALLS...AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO CLOSE TO
STORM LAKE IA BY 12Z WED. THEREFORE CURRENTLY...MUCH OF THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL OF ABOUT 1.5 TO CLOSE TO 3.0 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THAT LINE...CUTTING OFF RAPIDLY TO THE WEST. WHAT OUR
WESTERN ZONES WILL HAVE HOWEVER IS WIND. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POUR INTO THOSE
LOCATIONS AS THEIR THREAT OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MOVES TO THE EAST.

THEREFORE DID NOT ISSUE HEADLINES YET. THIS IS BECAUSE AT THIS TIME
A WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE SNOW SHOULD
BE FALLING EAST OF THERE. WHERE MOST OF THE SNOW DOES FALL TONIGHT
GENERALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS LEADING
TO WINDS WHICH ARE NOT VERY STRONG. SO THEREFORE IT DOES NOT MAKE A
LOT OF SENSE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES WHEN SNOW AMOUNTS BY ITSELF IS NOT REACHING CRITERIA.
SO WE WILL NEED WIND AND BLOWING SNOW TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AND BY THE TIME THIS SCENARIO GETS JUXTAPOSED WITH
FALLING SNOW...WE ARE NUDGING INTO THE THIRD PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN...THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY ADJUST WESTWARD...
THUS THRUSTING MORE OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO A DECENT SNOW BAND.
WILL MENTION ALL OF THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE NATURE OF WEATHER PROBLEMS WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING WHAT HIGHLIGHTS
ARE NEEDED...WILL DEPEND HOW THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BEHAVES TODAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM TO BE A GIVEN
FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT FAR FROM THAT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE KEY WILL BE THE TIMING...AMOUNT...AND LOCATION OF THE
BEST SNOW. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE THE UPPER SYSTEM DIGGING
A LITTLE MORE...SLOWING DOWN SOME...AND WRAPPING UP MORE AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD NOT ONLY BRING BETTER SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT SOME
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE BEST SNOW FALLING AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF AS IT STANDS NOW. THIS COULD
PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A LITTLE WHILE. FOR NOW IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY AND/OR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST MN SEEMS
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS FOR THE BETTER SNOW
POTENTIAL...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE WITH A SYSTEM SLOWDOWN AND/OR A
TRACK OF THE BEST SNOW INTO A LITTLE HIGHER WINDS. THE FORECAST AND
ESPECIALLY THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL REVEAL THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS AND THE STRONG WINDS BUT DETAILS SEEM
TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE SPECIFIC ADVISORIES.

VERY STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN THE MORNING EAST. WILL MENTION BLOWING SNOW
WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...TO LINGER IN PATCHY FORM INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW NO LONGER WILL BE FALLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING WEDNESDAY...AND OF COURSE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEDNESDAY...THEN IT LOOS LIKE
CLOUDS AT MID AND POSSIBLY LOW LEVELS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS
ALOFT. AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT OTHER THAN THE
WARM ADVECTION...WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER
SIDE OF ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT SOME TEENS LOWS SOUTHWEST
CORNER. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE TENS NORTHEAST TO
THE 30S SOUTHWEST AS SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.

FRIDAY WILL BRING A DECENT WARMUP...THEN A COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
OVERT HE WEEKEND...WITH WARMING TRYING TO START BACK UP AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP THE WARMING FRIDAY TO 30S HIGHS NORTHEAST HALF
WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER...TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER STILL. HOWEVER...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLE SNOW
COVER EFFECT...THE SUN ANGLE IS GETTING LOW AND ALLOWING LESS PUNCH
TO DAYTIME HEATING. IT IS A CLOSE CALL ON ADDING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AROUND SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WARM ADVECTION STARTING UP BY MONDAY SEEMS
TO WEAK THROUGH THAT TIME TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THAT DAY...BUT
THERE WILL BE FURTHER CHANCES TO REVISIT THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD.
IN ANY EVENT...THE BIGGEST WEATHER EVENT WILL BE EARLY IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLOUD CEILINGS MAY BE CLOSE TO UPPER END MVFR AT KHON THROUGH MID
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR TODAY DUE TO
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL
RAPIDLY CHANGE THIS EVENING AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE TONIGHTS
WEATHER WITH SNOWFALL...PERHAPS MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING
AT KSUX. IN ADDITION...ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW...IT
WILL BECOME VERY WINDY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. WEST OF THE JAMES WILL HAVE NORTHWEST WINDS FREQUENTLY
GUSTING AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS. KHON WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THESE
STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KFSD 251655
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1055 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR EXPECTATION ON SNOW AND WIND FOR LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GFS HAS SHIFTED HEAVIER SNOWFALL INTO SW MN AND
NW IA SIMILAR TO NAM ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS FASTER. LOOKING AT THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWING A REAL STRONG WAVE IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...DO
LIKE THE THE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED NAM/RAP SOLUTION OVER THE
GFS AND CANADIAN REGIONAL. THAT WOULD KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SNOW INTO PORTIONS OF SW MN AND NW IA INTO WED MORNING. DOES LOOK
A LITTLE LESS WINDY ON WEDNESDAY AS MIXED LAYER IS RATHER SHALLOW
SO THAT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE 25 TO 30 KTS
INSTEAD OF 30 TO 35 KTS. EXPECT THIS WILL LIMIT BLOWING SNOW
OUTSIDE OF AREAS WHERE SNOW IS FALLING. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN SW MN INTO WED
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY FRONT WHICH MAY PRODUCED LOCALIZED
LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING
SNOW.

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD...
CURRENTLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...AND WILL OVERTAKE OUR EASTERN ZONES
FROM 12Z THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED AN ISOLATED
FLURRY WITH THE MENTION OF THESE CLOUDS FOR MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING...AS THE CLOUD LAYER IS ON THE EDGE OF DENDRITIC
TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 TO -12C. THEN ONCE THESE CLOUDS EXIT...MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM WEST TO EAST WHICH ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVES RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD RIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ITS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS EVER SO IMPORTANT WITH THESE SYSTEMS...
AS THE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL EXIST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. FIRST OF ALL TODAY...AHEAD OF THIS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. MOISTURE DEPTH SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIP CHANCES REALLY WILL NOT START IN OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING...
THE PRECIP IN THOSE AREAS WILL EITHER BE LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW MIX. THEN FOR TONIGHT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...MODEL CONSENSUS
INCLUDING THE ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ROUGHLY FROM NEAR
HURON...TO JUST WEST OF SIOUX FALLS...AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO CLOSE TO
STORM LAKE IA BY 12Z WED. THEREFORE CURRENTLY...MUCH OF THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL OF ABOUT 1.5 TO CLOSE TO 3.0 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THAT LINE...CUTTING OFF RAPIDLY TO THE WEST. WHAT OUR
WESTERN ZONES WILL HAVE HOWEVER IS WIND. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POUR INTO THOSE
LOCATIONS AS THEIR THREAT OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MOVES TO THE EAST.

THEREFORE DID NOT ISSUE HEADLINES YET. THIS IS BECAUSE AT THIS TIME
A WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE SNOW SHOULD
BE FALLING EAST OF THERE. WHERE MOST OF THE SNOW DOES FALL TONIGHT
GENERALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS LEADING
TO WINDS WHICH ARE NOT VERY STRONG. SO THEREFORE IT DOES NOT MAKE A
LOT OF SENSE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES WHEN SNOW AMOUNTS BY ITSELF IS NOT REACHING CRITERIA.
SO WE WILL NEED WIND AND BLOWING SNOW TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AND BY THE TIME THIS SCENARIO GETS JUXTAPOSED WITH
FALLING SNOW...WE ARE NUDGING INTO THE THIRD PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN...THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY ADJUST WESTWARD...
THUS THRUSTING MORE OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO A DECENT SNOW BAND.
WILL MENTION ALL OF THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE NATURE OF WEATHER PROBLEMS WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING WHAT HIGHLIGHTS
ARE NEEDED...WILL DEPEND HOW THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BEHAVES TODAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM TO BE A GIVEN
FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT FAR FROM THAT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE KEY WILL BE THE TIMING...AMOUNT...AND LOCATION OF THE
BEST SNOW. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE THE UPPER SYSTEM DIGGING
A LITTLE MORE...SLOWING DOWN SOME...AND WRAPPING UP MORE AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD NOT ONLY BRING BETTER SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT SOME
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE BEST SNOW FALLING AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF AS IT STANDS NOW. THIS COULD
PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A LITTLE WHILE. FOR NOW IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY AND/OR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST MN SEEMS
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS FOR THE BETTER SNOW
POTENTIAL...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE WITH A SYSTEM SLOWDOWN AND/OR A
TRACK OF THE BEST SNOW INTO A LITTLE HIGHER WINDS. THE FORECAST AND
ESPECIALLY THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL REVEAL THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS AND THE STRONG WINDS BUT DETAILS SEEM
TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE SPECIFIC ADVISORIES.

VERY STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN THE MORNING EAST. WILL MENTION BLOWING SNOW
WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...TO LINGER IN PATCHY FORM INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW NO LONGER WILL BE FALLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING WEDNESDAY...AND OF COURSE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEDNESDAY...THEN IT LOOS LIKE
CLOUDS AT MID AND POSSIBLY LOW LEVELS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS
ALOFT. AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT OTHER THAN THE
WARM ADVECTION...WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER
SIDE OF ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT SOME TEENS LOWS SOUTHWEST
CORNER. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE TENS NORTHEAST TO
THE 30S SOUTHWEST AS SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.

FRIDAY WILL BRING A DECENT WARMUP...THEN A COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
OVERT HE WEEKEND...WITH WARMING TRYING TO START BACK UP AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP THE WARMING FRIDAY TO 30S HIGHS NORTHEAST HALF
WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER...TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER STILL. HOWEVER...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLE SNOW
COVER EFFECT...THE SUN ANGLE IS GETTING LOW AND ALLOWING LESS PUNCH
TO DAYTIME HEATING. IT IS A CLOSE CALL ON ADDING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AROUND SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WARM ADVECTION STARTING UP BY MONDAY SEEMS
TO WEAK THROUGH THAT TIME TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THAT DAY...BUT
THERE WILL BE FURTHER CHANCES TO REVISIT THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD.
IN ANY EVENT...THE BIGGEST WEATHER EVENT WILL BE EARLY IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLOUD CEILINGS MAY BE CLOSE TO UPPER END MVFR AT KHON THROUGH MID
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR TODAY DUE TO
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL
RAPIDLY CHANGE THIS EVENING AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE TONIGHTS
WEATHER WITH SNOWFALL...PERHAPS MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING
AT KSUX. IN ADDITION...ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW...IT
WILL BECOME VERY WINDY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. WEST OF THE JAMES WILL HAVE NORTHWEST WINDS FREQUENTLY
GUSTING AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS. KHON WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THESE
STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251146
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
546 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD...
CURRENTLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...AND WILL OVERTAKE OUR EASTERN ZONES
FROM 12Z THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED AN ISOLATED
FLURRY WITH THE MENTION OF THESE CLOUDS FOR MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING...AS THE CLOUD LAYER IS ON THE EDGE OF DENDRITIC
TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 TO -12C. THEN ONCE THESE CLOUDS EXIT...MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM WEST TO EAST WHICH ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVES RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD RIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ITS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS EVER SO IMPORTANT WITH THESE SYSTEMS...
AS THE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL EXIST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. FIRST OF ALL TODAY...AHEAD OF THIS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. MOISTURE DEPTH SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIP CHANCES REALLY WILL NOT START IN OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING...
THE PRECIP IN THOSE AREAS WILL EITHER BE LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW MIX. THEN FOR TONIGHT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...MODEL CONSENSUS
INCLUDING THE ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ROUGHLY FROM NEAR
HURON...TO JUST WEST OF SIOUX FALLS...AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO CLOSE TO
STORM LAKE IA BY 12Z WED. THEREFORE CURRENTLY...MUCH OF THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL OF ABOUT 1.5 TO CLOSE TO 3.0 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THAT LINE...CUTTING OFF RAPIDLY TO THE WEST. WHAT OUR
WESTERN ZONES WILL HAVE HOWEVER IS WIND. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POUR INTO THOSE
LOCATIONS AS THEIR THREAT OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MOVES TO THE EAST.

THEREFORE DID NOT ISSUE HEADLINES YET. THIS IS BECAUSE AT THIS TIME
A WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE SNOW SHOULD
BE FALLING EAST OF THERE. WHERE MOST OF THE SNOW DOES FALL TONIGHT
GENERALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS LEADING
TO WINDS WHICH ARE NOT VERY STRONG. SO THEREFORE IT DOES NOT MAKE A
LOT OF SENSE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES WHEN SNOW AMOUNTS BY ITSELF IS NOT REACHING CRITERIA.
SO WE WILL NEED WIND AND BLOWING SNOW TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AND BY THE TIME THIS SCENARIO GETS JUXTAPOSED WITH
FALLING SNOW...WE ARE NUDGING INTO THE THIRD PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN...THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY ADJUST WESTWARD...
THUS THRUSTING MORE OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO A DECENT SNOW BAND.
WILL MENTION ALL OF THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE NATURE OF WEATHER PROBLEMS WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING WHAT HIGHLIGHTS
ARE NEEDED...WILL DEPEND HOW THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BEHAVES TODAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM TO BE A GIVEN
FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT FAR FROM THAT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE KEY WILL BE THE TIMING...AMOUNT...AND LOCATION OF THE
BEST SNOW. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE THE UPPER SYSTEM DIGGING
A LITTLE MORE...SLOWING DOWN SOME...AND WRAPPING UP MORE AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD NOT ONLY BRING BETTER SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT SOME
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE BEST SNOW FALLING AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF AS IT STANDS NOW. THIS COULD
PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A LITTLE WHILE. FOR NOW IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY AND/OR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST MN SEEMS
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS FOR THE BETTER SNOW
POTENTIAL...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE WITH A SYSTEM SLOWDOWN AND/OR A
TRACK OF THE BEST SNOW INTO A LITTLE HIGHER WINDS. THE FORECAST AND
ESPECIALLY THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL REVEAL THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS AND THE STRONG WINDS BUT DETAILS SEEM
TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE SPECIFIC ADVISORIES.

VERY STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN THE MORNING EAST. WILL MENTION BLOWING SNOW
WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...TO LINGER IN PATCHY FORM INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW NO LONGER WILL BE FALLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING WEDNESDAY...AND OF COURSE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEDNESDAY...THEN IT LOOS LIKE
CLOUDS AT MID AND POSSIBLY LOW LEVELS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS
ALOFT. AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT OTHER THAN THE
WARM ADVECTION...WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER
SIDE OF ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT SOME TEENS LOWS SOUTHWEST
CORNER. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE TENS NORTHEAST TO
THE 30S SOUTHWEST AS SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.

FRIDAY WILL BRING A DECENT WARMUP...THEN A COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
OVERT HE WEEKEND...WITH WARMING TRYING TO START BACK UP AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP THE WARMING FRIDAY TO 30S HIGHS NORTHEAST HALF
WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER...TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER STILL. HOWEVER...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLE SNOW
COVER EFFECT...THE SUN ANGLE IS GETTING LOW AND ALLOWING LESS PUNCH
TO DAYTIME HEATING. IT IS A CLOSE CALL ON ADDING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AROUND SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WARM ADVECTION STARTING UP BY MONDAY SEEMS
TO WEAK THROUGH THAT TIME TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THAT DAY...BUT
THERE WILL BE FURTHER CHANCES TO REVISIT THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD.
IN ANY EVENT...THE BIGGEST WEATHER EVENT WILL BE EARLY IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLOUD CEILINGS MAY BE CLOSE TO UPPER END MVFR AT KHON THROUGH MID
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR TODAY DUE TO
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL
RAPIDLY CHANGE THIS EVENING AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE TONIGHTS
WEATHER WITH SNOWFALL...PERHAPS MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING
AT KSUX. IN ADDITION...ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW...IT
WILL BECOME VERY WINDY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. WEST OF THE JAMES WILL HAVE NORTHWEST WINDS FREQUENTLY
GUSTING AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS. KHON WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THESE
STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251146
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
546 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD...
CURRENTLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...AND WILL OVERTAKE OUR EASTERN ZONES
FROM 12Z THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED AN ISOLATED
FLURRY WITH THE MENTION OF THESE CLOUDS FOR MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING...AS THE CLOUD LAYER IS ON THE EDGE OF DENDRITIC
TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 TO -12C. THEN ONCE THESE CLOUDS EXIT...MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM WEST TO EAST WHICH ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVES RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD RIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ITS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS EVER SO IMPORTANT WITH THESE SYSTEMS...
AS THE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL EXIST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. FIRST OF ALL TODAY...AHEAD OF THIS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. MOISTURE DEPTH SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIP CHANCES REALLY WILL NOT START IN OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING...
THE PRECIP IN THOSE AREAS WILL EITHER BE LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW MIX. THEN FOR TONIGHT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...MODEL CONSENSUS
INCLUDING THE ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ROUGHLY FROM NEAR
HURON...TO JUST WEST OF SIOUX FALLS...AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO CLOSE TO
STORM LAKE IA BY 12Z WED. THEREFORE CURRENTLY...MUCH OF THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL OF ABOUT 1.5 TO CLOSE TO 3.0 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THAT LINE...CUTTING OFF RAPIDLY TO THE WEST. WHAT OUR
WESTERN ZONES WILL HAVE HOWEVER IS WIND. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POUR INTO THOSE
LOCATIONS AS THEIR THREAT OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MOVES TO THE EAST.

THEREFORE DID NOT ISSUE HEADLINES YET. THIS IS BECAUSE AT THIS TIME
A WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE SNOW SHOULD
BE FALLING EAST OF THERE. WHERE MOST OF THE SNOW DOES FALL TONIGHT
GENERALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS LEADING
TO WINDS WHICH ARE NOT VERY STRONG. SO THEREFORE IT DOES NOT MAKE A
LOT OF SENSE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES WHEN SNOW AMOUNTS BY ITSELF IS NOT REACHING CRITERIA.
SO WE WILL NEED WIND AND BLOWING SNOW TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AND BY THE TIME THIS SCENARIO GETS JUXTAPOSED WITH
FALLING SNOW...WE ARE NUDGING INTO THE THIRD PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN...THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY ADJUST WESTWARD...
THUS THRUSTING MORE OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO A DECENT SNOW BAND.
WILL MENTION ALL OF THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE NATURE OF WEATHER PROBLEMS WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING WHAT HIGHLIGHTS
ARE NEEDED...WILL DEPEND HOW THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BEHAVES TODAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM TO BE A GIVEN
FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT FAR FROM THAT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE KEY WILL BE THE TIMING...AMOUNT...AND LOCATION OF THE
BEST SNOW. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE THE UPPER SYSTEM DIGGING
A LITTLE MORE...SLOWING DOWN SOME...AND WRAPPING UP MORE AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD NOT ONLY BRING BETTER SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT SOME
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE BEST SNOW FALLING AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF AS IT STANDS NOW. THIS COULD
PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A LITTLE WHILE. FOR NOW IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY AND/OR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST MN SEEMS
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS FOR THE BETTER SNOW
POTENTIAL...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE WITH A SYSTEM SLOWDOWN AND/OR A
TRACK OF THE BEST SNOW INTO A LITTLE HIGHER WINDS. THE FORECAST AND
ESPECIALLY THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL REVEAL THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS AND THE STRONG WINDS BUT DETAILS SEEM
TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE SPECIFIC ADVISORIES.

VERY STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN THE MORNING EAST. WILL MENTION BLOWING SNOW
WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...TO LINGER IN PATCHY FORM INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW NO LONGER WILL BE FALLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING WEDNESDAY...AND OF COURSE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEDNESDAY...THEN IT LOOS LIKE
CLOUDS AT MID AND POSSIBLY LOW LEVELS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS
ALOFT. AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT OTHER THAN THE
WARM ADVECTION...WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER
SIDE OF ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT SOME TEENS LOWS SOUTHWEST
CORNER. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE TENS NORTHEAST TO
THE 30S SOUTHWEST AS SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.

FRIDAY WILL BRING A DECENT WARMUP...THEN A COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
OVERT HE WEEKEND...WITH WARMING TRYING TO START BACK UP AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP THE WARMING FRIDAY TO 30S HIGHS NORTHEAST HALF
WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER...TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER STILL. HOWEVER...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLE SNOW
COVER EFFECT...THE SUN ANGLE IS GETTING LOW AND ALLOWING LESS PUNCH
TO DAYTIME HEATING. IT IS A CLOSE CALL ON ADDING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AROUND SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WARM ADVECTION STARTING UP BY MONDAY SEEMS
TO WEAK THROUGH THAT TIME TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THAT DAY...BUT
THERE WILL BE FURTHER CHANCES TO REVISIT THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD.
IN ANY EVENT...THE BIGGEST WEATHER EVENT WILL BE EARLY IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLOUD CEILINGS MAY BE CLOSE TO UPPER END MVFR AT KHON THROUGH MID
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR TODAY DUE TO
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL
RAPIDLY CHANGE THIS EVENING AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE TONIGHTS
WEATHER WITH SNOWFALL...PERHAPS MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING
AT KSUX. IN ADDITION...ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW...IT
WILL BECOME VERY WINDY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. WEST OF THE JAMES WILL HAVE NORTHWEST WINDS FREQUENTLY
GUSTING AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS. KHON WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THESE
STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251146
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
546 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD...
CURRENTLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...AND WILL OVERTAKE OUR EASTERN ZONES
FROM 12Z THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED AN ISOLATED
FLURRY WITH THE MENTION OF THESE CLOUDS FOR MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING...AS THE CLOUD LAYER IS ON THE EDGE OF DENDRITIC
TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 TO -12C. THEN ONCE THESE CLOUDS EXIT...MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM WEST TO EAST WHICH ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVES RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD RIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ITS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS EVER SO IMPORTANT WITH THESE SYSTEMS...
AS THE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL EXIST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. FIRST OF ALL TODAY...AHEAD OF THIS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. MOISTURE DEPTH SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIP CHANCES REALLY WILL NOT START IN OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING...
THE PRECIP IN THOSE AREAS WILL EITHER BE LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW MIX. THEN FOR TONIGHT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...MODEL CONSENSUS
INCLUDING THE ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ROUGHLY FROM NEAR
HURON...TO JUST WEST OF SIOUX FALLS...AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO CLOSE TO
STORM LAKE IA BY 12Z WED. THEREFORE CURRENTLY...MUCH OF THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL OF ABOUT 1.5 TO CLOSE TO 3.0 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THAT LINE...CUTTING OFF RAPIDLY TO THE WEST. WHAT OUR
WESTERN ZONES WILL HAVE HOWEVER IS WIND. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POUR INTO THOSE
LOCATIONS AS THEIR THREAT OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MOVES TO THE EAST.

THEREFORE DID NOT ISSUE HEADLINES YET. THIS IS BECAUSE AT THIS TIME
A WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE SNOW SHOULD
BE FALLING EAST OF THERE. WHERE MOST OF THE SNOW DOES FALL TONIGHT
GENERALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS LEADING
TO WINDS WHICH ARE NOT VERY STRONG. SO THEREFORE IT DOES NOT MAKE A
LOT OF SENSE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES WHEN SNOW AMOUNTS BY ITSELF IS NOT REACHING CRITERIA.
SO WE WILL NEED WIND AND BLOWING SNOW TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AND BY THE TIME THIS SCENARIO GETS JUXTAPOSED WITH
FALLING SNOW...WE ARE NUDGING INTO THE THIRD PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN...THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY ADJUST WESTWARD...
THUS THRUSTING MORE OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO A DECENT SNOW BAND.
WILL MENTION ALL OF THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE NATURE OF WEATHER PROBLEMS WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING WHAT HIGHLIGHTS
ARE NEEDED...WILL DEPEND HOW THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BEHAVES TODAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM TO BE A GIVEN
FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT FAR FROM THAT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE KEY WILL BE THE TIMING...AMOUNT...AND LOCATION OF THE
BEST SNOW. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE THE UPPER SYSTEM DIGGING
A LITTLE MORE...SLOWING DOWN SOME...AND WRAPPING UP MORE AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD NOT ONLY BRING BETTER SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT SOME
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE BEST SNOW FALLING AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF AS IT STANDS NOW. THIS COULD
PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A LITTLE WHILE. FOR NOW IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY AND/OR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST MN SEEMS
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS FOR THE BETTER SNOW
POTENTIAL...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE WITH A SYSTEM SLOWDOWN AND/OR A
TRACK OF THE BEST SNOW INTO A LITTLE HIGHER WINDS. THE FORECAST AND
ESPECIALLY THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL REVEAL THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS AND THE STRONG WINDS BUT DETAILS SEEM
TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE SPECIFIC ADVISORIES.

VERY STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN THE MORNING EAST. WILL MENTION BLOWING SNOW
WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...TO LINGER IN PATCHY FORM INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW NO LONGER WILL BE FALLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING WEDNESDAY...AND OF COURSE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEDNESDAY...THEN IT LOOS LIKE
CLOUDS AT MID AND POSSIBLY LOW LEVELS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS
ALOFT. AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT OTHER THAN THE
WARM ADVECTION...WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER
SIDE OF ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT SOME TEENS LOWS SOUTHWEST
CORNER. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE TENS NORTHEAST TO
THE 30S SOUTHWEST AS SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.

FRIDAY WILL BRING A DECENT WARMUP...THEN A COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
OVERT HE WEEKEND...WITH WARMING TRYING TO START BACK UP AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP THE WARMING FRIDAY TO 30S HIGHS NORTHEAST HALF
WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER...TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER STILL. HOWEVER...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLE SNOW
COVER EFFECT...THE SUN ANGLE IS GETTING LOW AND ALLOWING LESS PUNCH
TO DAYTIME HEATING. IT IS A CLOSE CALL ON ADDING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AROUND SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WARM ADVECTION STARTING UP BY MONDAY SEEMS
TO WEAK THROUGH THAT TIME TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THAT DAY...BUT
THERE WILL BE FURTHER CHANCES TO REVISIT THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD.
IN ANY EVENT...THE BIGGEST WEATHER EVENT WILL BE EARLY IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLOUD CEILINGS MAY BE CLOSE TO UPPER END MVFR AT KHON THROUGH MID
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR TODAY DUE TO
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL
RAPIDLY CHANGE THIS EVENING AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE TONIGHTS
WEATHER WITH SNOWFALL...PERHAPS MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING
AT KSUX. IN ADDITION...ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW...IT
WILL BECOME VERY WINDY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. WEST OF THE JAMES WILL HAVE NORTHWEST WINDS FREQUENTLY
GUSTING AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS. KHON WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THESE
STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251146
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
546 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD...
CURRENTLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...AND WILL OVERTAKE OUR EASTERN ZONES
FROM 12Z THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED AN ISOLATED
FLURRY WITH THE MENTION OF THESE CLOUDS FOR MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING...AS THE CLOUD LAYER IS ON THE EDGE OF DENDRITIC
TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 TO -12C. THEN ONCE THESE CLOUDS EXIT...MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM WEST TO EAST WHICH ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVES RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD RIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ITS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS EVER SO IMPORTANT WITH THESE SYSTEMS...
AS THE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL EXIST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. FIRST OF ALL TODAY...AHEAD OF THIS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. MOISTURE DEPTH SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIP CHANCES REALLY WILL NOT START IN OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING...
THE PRECIP IN THOSE AREAS WILL EITHER BE LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW MIX. THEN FOR TONIGHT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...MODEL CONSENSUS
INCLUDING THE ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ROUGHLY FROM NEAR
HURON...TO JUST WEST OF SIOUX FALLS...AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO CLOSE TO
STORM LAKE IA BY 12Z WED. THEREFORE CURRENTLY...MUCH OF THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL OF ABOUT 1.5 TO CLOSE TO 3.0 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THAT LINE...CUTTING OFF RAPIDLY TO THE WEST. WHAT OUR
WESTERN ZONES WILL HAVE HOWEVER IS WIND. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POUR INTO THOSE
LOCATIONS AS THEIR THREAT OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MOVES TO THE EAST.

THEREFORE DID NOT ISSUE HEADLINES YET. THIS IS BECAUSE AT THIS TIME
A WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE SNOW SHOULD
BE FALLING EAST OF THERE. WHERE MOST OF THE SNOW DOES FALL TONIGHT
GENERALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS LEADING
TO WINDS WHICH ARE NOT VERY STRONG. SO THEREFORE IT DOES NOT MAKE A
LOT OF SENSE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES WHEN SNOW AMOUNTS BY ITSELF IS NOT REACHING CRITERIA.
SO WE WILL NEED WIND AND BLOWING SNOW TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AND BY THE TIME THIS SCENARIO GETS JUXTAPOSED WITH
FALLING SNOW...WE ARE NUDGING INTO THE THIRD PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN...THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY ADJUST WESTWARD...
THUS THRUSTING MORE OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO A DECENT SNOW BAND.
WILL MENTION ALL OF THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE NATURE OF WEATHER PROBLEMS WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING WHAT HIGHLIGHTS
ARE NEEDED...WILL DEPEND HOW THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BEHAVES TODAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM TO BE A GIVEN
FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT FAR FROM THAT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE KEY WILL BE THE TIMING...AMOUNT...AND LOCATION OF THE
BEST SNOW. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE THE UPPER SYSTEM DIGGING
A LITTLE MORE...SLOWING DOWN SOME...AND WRAPPING UP MORE AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD NOT ONLY BRING BETTER SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT SOME
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE BEST SNOW FALLING AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF AS IT STANDS NOW. THIS COULD
PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A LITTLE WHILE. FOR NOW IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY AND/OR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST MN SEEMS
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS FOR THE BETTER SNOW
POTENTIAL...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE WITH A SYSTEM SLOWDOWN AND/OR A
TRACK OF THE BEST SNOW INTO A LITTLE HIGHER WINDS. THE FORECAST AND
ESPECIALLY THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL REVEAL THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS AND THE STRONG WINDS BUT DETAILS SEEM
TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE SPECIFIC ADVISORIES.

VERY STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN THE MORNING EAST. WILL MENTION BLOWING SNOW
WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...TO LINGER IN PATCHY FORM INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW NO LONGER WILL BE FALLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING WEDNESDAY...AND OF COURSE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEDNESDAY...THEN IT LOOS LIKE
CLOUDS AT MID AND POSSIBLY LOW LEVELS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS
ALOFT. AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT OTHER THAN THE
WARM ADVECTION...WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER
SIDE OF ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT SOME TEENS LOWS SOUTHWEST
CORNER. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE TENS NORTHEAST TO
THE 30S SOUTHWEST AS SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.

FRIDAY WILL BRING A DECENT WARMUP...THEN A COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
OVERT HE WEEKEND...WITH WARMING TRYING TO START BACK UP AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP THE WARMING FRIDAY TO 30S HIGHS NORTHEAST HALF
WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER...TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER STILL. HOWEVER...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLE SNOW
COVER EFFECT...THE SUN ANGLE IS GETTING LOW AND ALLOWING LESS PUNCH
TO DAYTIME HEATING. IT IS A CLOSE CALL ON ADDING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AROUND SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WARM ADVECTION STARTING UP BY MONDAY SEEMS
TO WEAK THROUGH THAT TIME TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THAT DAY...BUT
THERE WILL BE FURTHER CHANCES TO REVISIT THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD.
IN ANY EVENT...THE BIGGEST WEATHER EVENT WILL BE EARLY IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLOUD CEILINGS MAY BE CLOSE TO UPPER END MVFR AT KHON THROUGH MID
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR TODAY DUE TO
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL
RAPIDLY CHANGE THIS EVENING AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE TONIGHTS
WEATHER WITH SNOWFALL...PERHAPS MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING
AT KSUX. IN ADDITION...ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW...IT
WILL BECOME VERY WINDY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. WEST OF THE JAMES WILL HAVE NORTHWEST WINDS FREQUENTLY
GUSTING AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS. KHON WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THESE
STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KABR 251130 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
530 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CENTER AROUND A CLIPPER SYSTEM
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH LEADS TO HIGH FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN QUESTION LEFT UNANSWERED IS WHETHER OR NOT
CENTRAL SD SEES ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER SW SASKATCHEWAN...WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH PCPN LIKELY NOT REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL
AFTER 21Z. BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...PCPN COULD BEGIN AS RAIN...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PIERRE
AREA. HOWEVER DECENT CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WITH RAIN
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATER THIS EVENING. BASED ON THE
CURRENT LOW TRACK...THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE ALL
SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO TO FOUR INCHES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW DOES TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE PRAIRIE COTEAU.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. WINDS
SHOULD EASILY EXCEED WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER 0Z TONIGHT. THOUGHT
ABOUT ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA...HOWEVER AM UNCERTAIN
ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IF THE MISSOURI RIVER SEES ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...THEN A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED INSTEAD.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION BEYOND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THANKSGIVING.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD STARTS...WITH A SHORTWAVE SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THEN SETS UP...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
MONTANA TO THE LEE OF ROCKIES. THE MODELS AGREE THAT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THAT THE NORTHEAST MAY GET CLIPPED...SO WILL LEAVE A SMALL POP IN
THAT AREA. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ON
SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN AND BECOMES DOMINANT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY.

WILL SEE WAA OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS RISE INTO THE +2
TO +10 DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S AND
40S...WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLE HITTING 50 DEGREES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE WARMER AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD
PUNCH BEGINS ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...THEN
MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA BEGINNING SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
CLIPPER SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WILL START OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BECOME ALL SNOW AS IT
SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBYS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES AT KMBG...KABR
AND KATY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST. THE WINDS MAY AID IN
FURTHER VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 251130 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
530 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CENTER AROUND A CLIPPER SYSTEM
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH LEADS TO HIGH FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN QUESTION LEFT UNANSWERED IS WHETHER OR NOT
CENTRAL SD SEES ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER SW SASKATCHEWAN...WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH PCPN LIKELY NOT REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL
AFTER 21Z. BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...PCPN COULD BEGIN AS RAIN...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PIERRE
AREA. HOWEVER DECENT CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WITH RAIN
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATER THIS EVENING. BASED ON THE
CURRENT LOW TRACK...THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE ALL
SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO TO FOUR INCHES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW DOES TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE PRAIRIE COTEAU.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. WINDS
SHOULD EASILY EXCEED WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER 0Z TONIGHT. THOUGHT
ABOUT ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA...HOWEVER AM UNCERTAIN
ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IF THE MISSOURI RIVER SEES ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...THEN A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED INSTEAD.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION BEYOND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THANKSGIVING.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD STARTS...WITH A SHORTWAVE SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THEN SETS UP...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
MONTANA TO THE LEE OF ROCKIES. THE MODELS AGREE THAT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THAT THE NORTHEAST MAY GET CLIPPED...SO WILL LEAVE A SMALL POP IN
THAT AREA. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ON
SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN AND BECOMES DOMINANT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY.

WILL SEE WAA OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS RISE INTO THE +2
TO +10 DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S AND
40S...WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLE HITTING 50 DEGREES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE WARMER AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD
PUNCH BEGINS ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...THEN
MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA BEGINNING SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
CLIPPER SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WILL START OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BECOME ALL SNOW AS IT
SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBYS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES AT KMBG...KABR
AND KATY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST. THE WINDS MAY AID IN
FURTHER VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 251130 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
530 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CENTER AROUND A CLIPPER SYSTEM
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH LEADS TO HIGH FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN QUESTION LEFT UNANSWERED IS WHETHER OR NOT
CENTRAL SD SEES ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER SW SASKATCHEWAN...WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH PCPN LIKELY NOT REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL
AFTER 21Z. BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...PCPN COULD BEGIN AS RAIN...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PIERRE
AREA. HOWEVER DECENT CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WITH RAIN
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATER THIS EVENING. BASED ON THE
CURRENT LOW TRACK...THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE ALL
SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO TO FOUR INCHES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW DOES TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE PRAIRIE COTEAU.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. WINDS
SHOULD EASILY EXCEED WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER 0Z TONIGHT. THOUGHT
ABOUT ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA...HOWEVER AM UNCERTAIN
ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IF THE MISSOURI RIVER SEES ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...THEN A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED INSTEAD.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION BEYOND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THANKSGIVING.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD STARTS...WITH A SHORTWAVE SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THEN SETS UP...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
MONTANA TO THE LEE OF ROCKIES. THE MODELS AGREE THAT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THAT THE NORTHEAST MAY GET CLIPPED...SO WILL LEAVE A SMALL POP IN
THAT AREA. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ON
SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN AND BECOMES DOMINANT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY.

WILL SEE WAA OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS RISE INTO THE +2
TO +10 DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S AND
40S...WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLE HITTING 50 DEGREES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE WARMER AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD
PUNCH BEGINS ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...THEN
MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA BEGINNING SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
CLIPPER SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WILL START OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BECOME ALL SNOW AS IT
SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBYS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES AT KMBG...KABR
AND KATY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST. THE WINDS MAY AID IN
FURTHER VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 251130 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
530 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CENTER AROUND A CLIPPER SYSTEM
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH LEADS TO HIGH FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN QUESTION LEFT UNANSWERED IS WHETHER OR NOT
CENTRAL SD SEES ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER SW SASKATCHEWAN...WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH PCPN LIKELY NOT REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL
AFTER 21Z. BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...PCPN COULD BEGIN AS RAIN...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PIERRE
AREA. HOWEVER DECENT CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WITH RAIN
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATER THIS EVENING. BASED ON THE
CURRENT LOW TRACK...THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE ALL
SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO TO FOUR INCHES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW DOES TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE PRAIRIE COTEAU.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. WINDS
SHOULD EASILY EXCEED WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER 0Z TONIGHT. THOUGHT
ABOUT ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA...HOWEVER AM UNCERTAIN
ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IF THE MISSOURI RIVER SEES ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...THEN A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED INSTEAD.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION BEYOND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THANKSGIVING.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD STARTS...WITH A SHORTWAVE SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THEN SETS UP...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
MONTANA TO THE LEE OF ROCKIES. THE MODELS AGREE THAT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THAT THE NORTHEAST MAY GET CLIPPED...SO WILL LEAVE A SMALL POP IN
THAT AREA. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ON
SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN AND BECOMES DOMINANT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY.

WILL SEE WAA OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS RISE INTO THE +2
TO +10 DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S AND
40S...WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLE HITTING 50 DEGREES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE WARMER AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD
PUNCH BEGINS ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...THEN
MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA BEGINNING SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
CLIPPER SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WILL START OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BECOME ALL SNOW AS IT
SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBYS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES AT KMBG...KABR
AND KATY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST. THE WINDS MAY AID IN
FURTHER VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 251031
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
331 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MORNING UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WITH A RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MONTANA WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER ALBERTA WITH DEEPENING LEE
SIDE SFC TROUGH EAST OF THE NRN ROCKIES.

MID-HIGH LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THIS MORNING...SPREADING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS THE PRECIP MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT GIVEN THE WARMING PROFILES THERE MAY BE
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS AFTN. UP TO
A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...BUT WITH SFC TEMPS RISING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK LATER THIS MORNING...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROADS
THERE MAY BE LIMITED. UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE BLACK HILLS TODAY WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

THE SFC LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
MID-DAY INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME VERY WINDY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD AND TIGHTENS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL THIS EVENING BUT THEN GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER BY THE
TIME THE WIND PICKS UP OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTN
AND DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS BLOWING SNOW SHOULDN/T BE MUCH OF A
PROBLEM. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IF THE PRECIPITATION LINGERS LONGER
OR THE SNOW IS A BIT HEAVIER OVER NWRN SD WHEN THE WIND INCREASES
THEN THE WIND ADVISORY THERE MAY NEED TO BE CHANGED TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. 06 NAM SHOWS 850MB
WINDS INCREASING TO 45-50KTS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFT/EVE.
HOWEVER THERE ISN/T A VERY STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ALONG OR
DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
MIXING AND THE POTENTIAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SFC SO IT LOOKS
LIKE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR THE SITUTATION.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AS A NE-SW ORIENTED REGION OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WORKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND RELATIVELY
WARMER AIR ALOFT OVER RIDES THE COLDER AIR AT THE SFC.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP THANKSGIVING DAY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING THE
WARM FRONT NE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY AND
MUCH WARMER WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY. CNTRL SD WILL REACH
THE 30S AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. FARTHER WEST INTO THE WARM SECTOR...HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH
WELL INTO THE 40S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AS A SHALLOW TROUGH
CROSSES SRN CANADA INTO MT/ND. IF THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT...TEMPS
WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY INTO THE TEENS AND
20S...AND THEN SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY...BUT THEN MODELS SHOW WARMER AIR ADVECTING
BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SOME SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE/CAA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS QPF WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SNOW WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW TO SE
THIS MORNING BRINGING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AROUND THE NRN BLKHLS. GUSTY W/NW WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
     SDZ014-025-026-031-032-043-072-073.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
     SDZ001-002-012-013.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 251031
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
331 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MORNING UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WITH A RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MONTANA WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER ALBERTA WITH DEEPENING LEE
SIDE SFC TROUGH EAST OF THE NRN ROCKIES.

MID-HIGH LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THIS MORNING...SPREADING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS THE PRECIP MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT GIVEN THE WARMING PROFILES THERE MAY BE
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS AFTN. UP TO
A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...BUT WITH SFC TEMPS RISING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK LATER THIS MORNING...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROADS
THERE MAY BE LIMITED. UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE BLACK HILLS TODAY WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

THE SFC LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
MID-DAY INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME VERY WINDY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD AND TIGHTENS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL THIS EVENING BUT THEN GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER BY THE
TIME THE WIND PICKS UP OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTN
AND DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS BLOWING SNOW SHOULDN/T BE MUCH OF A
PROBLEM. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IF THE PRECIPITATION LINGERS LONGER
OR THE SNOW IS A BIT HEAVIER OVER NWRN SD WHEN THE WIND INCREASES
THEN THE WIND ADVISORY THERE MAY NEED TO BE CHANGED TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. 06 NAM SHOWS 850MB
WINDS INCREASING TO 45-50KTS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFT/EVE.
HOWEVER THERE ISN/T A VERY STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ALONG OR
DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
MIXING AND THE POTENTIAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SFC SO IT LOOKS
LIKE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR THE SITUTATION.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AS A NE-SW ORIENTED REGION OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WORKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND RELATIVELY
WARMER AIR ALOFT OVER RIDES THE COLDER AIR AT THE SFC.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP THANKSGIVING DAY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING THE
WARM FRONT NE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY AND
MUCH WARMER WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY. CNTRL SD WILL REACH
THE 30S AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. FARTHER WEST INTO THE WARM SECTOR...HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH
WELL INTO THE 40S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AS A SHALLOW TROUGH
CROSSES SRN CANADA INTO MT/ND. IF THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT...TEMPS
WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY INTO THE TEENS AND
20S...AND THEN SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY...BUT THEN MODELS SHOW WARMER AIR ADVECTING
BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SOME SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE/CAA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS QPF WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

SNOW WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW TO SE
THIS MORNING BRINGING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AROUND THE NRN BLKHLS. GUSTY W/NW WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
     SDZ014-025-026-031-032-043-072-073.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
     SDZ001-002-012-013.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KABR 251002
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
402 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CENTER AROUND A CLIPPER SYSTEM
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH LEADS TO HIGH FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN QUESTION LEFT UNANSWERED IS WHETHER OR NOT
CENTRAL SD SEES ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER SW SASKATCHEWAN...WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH PCPN LIKELY NOT REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL
AFTER 21Z. BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...PCPN COULD BEGIN AS RAIN...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PIERRE
AREA. HOWEVER DECENT CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WITH RAIN
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATER THIS EVENING. BASED ON THE
CURRENT LOW TRACK...THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE ALL
SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO TO FOUR INCHES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW DOES TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE PRAIRIE COTEAU.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. WINDS
SHOULD EASILY EXCEED WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER 0Z TONIGHT. THOUGHT
ABOUT ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA...HOWEVER AM UNCERTAIN
ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IF THE MISSOURI RIVER SEES ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...THEN A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED INSTEAD.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION BEYOND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD STARTS...WITH A SHORTWAVE SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THEN SETS UP...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
MONTANA TO THE LEE OF ROCKIES. THE MODELS AGREE THAT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THAT THE NORTHEAST MAY GET CLIPPED...SO WILL LEAVE A SMALL POP IN
THAT AREA. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ON
SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN AND BECOMES DOMINANT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY.

WILL SEE WAA OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS RISE INTO THE +2
TO +10 DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S AND
40S...WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLE HITTING 50 DEGREES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE WARMER AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD
PUNCH BEGINS ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...THEN
MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LATE TONIGHT BKN/OVC LOWER CLOUDS /APPX 1000FT AGL TO 3000FT AGL/
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. LATER TODAY...A CLIPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DESCEND UPON THE
REGION...INTRODUCING BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MOSTLY OVER THE
KMBG/KABR/KATY TERMINALS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT KPIR.
ALSO...WATCH OUT FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP AT KMBG AND
KPIR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 251002
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
402 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CENTER AROUND A CLIPPER SYSTEM
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH LEADS TO HIGH FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN QUESTION LEFT UNANSWERED IS WHETHER OR NOT
CENTRAL SD SEES ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER SW SASKATCHEWAN...WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH PCPN LIKELY NOT REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL
AFTER 21Z. BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...PCPN COULD BEGIN AS RAIN...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PIERRE
AREA. HOWEVER DECENT CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WITH RAIN
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATER THIS EVENING. BASED ON THE
CURRENT LOW TRACK...THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE ALL
SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO TO FOUR INCHES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW DOES TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE PRAIRIE COTEAU.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. WINDS
SHOULD EASILY EXCEED WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER 0Z TONIGHT. THOUGHT
ABOUT ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA...HOWEVER AM UNCERTAIN
ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IF THE MISSOURI RIVER SEES ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...THEN A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED INSTEAD.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION BEYOND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD STARTS...WITH A SHORTWAVE SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THEN SETS UP...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
MONTANA TO THE LEE OF ROCKIES. THE MODELS AGREE THAT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THAT THE NORTHEAST MAY GET CLIPPED...SO WILL LEAVE A SMALL POP IN
THAT AREA. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ON
SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN AND BECOMES DOMINANT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY.

WILL SEE WAA OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS RISE INTO THE +2
TO +10 DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S AND
40S...WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLE HITTING 50 DEGREES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE WARMER AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD
PUNCH BEGINS ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...THEN
MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LATE TONIGHT BKN/OVC LOWER CLOUDS /APPX 1000FT AGL TO 3000FT AGL/
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. LATER TODAY...A CLIPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DESCEND UPON THE
REGION...INTRODUCING BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MOSTLY OVER THE
KMBG/KABR/KATY TERMINALS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT KPIR.
ALSO...WATCH OUT FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP AT KMBG AND
KPIR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 250928
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD...
CURRENTLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...AND WILL OVERTAKE OUR EASTERN ZONES
FROM 12Z THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED AN ISOLATED
FLURRY WITH THE MENTION OF THESE CLOUDS FOR MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING...AS THE CLOUD LAYER IS ON THE EDGE OF DENDRITIC
TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 TO -12C. THEN ONCE THESE CLOUDS EXIT...MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM WEST TO EAST WHICH ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVES RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD RIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ITS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS EVER SO IMPORTANT WITH THESE SYSTEMS...
AS THE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL EXIST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. FIRST OF ALL TODAY...AHEAD OF THIS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. MOISTURE DEPTH SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIP CHANCES REALLY WILL NOT START IN OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING...
THE PRECIP IN THOSE AREAS WILL EITHER BE LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW MIX. THEN FOR TONIGHT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...MODEL CONSENSUS
INCLUDING THE ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ROUGHLY FROM NEAR
HURON...TO JUST WEST OF SIOUX FALLS...AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO CLOSE TO
STORM LAKE IA BY 12Z WED. THEREFORE CURRENTLY...MUCH OF THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL OF ABOUT 1.5 TO CLOSE TO 3.0 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THAT LINE...CUTTING OFF RAPIDLY TO THE WEST. WHAT OUR
WESTERN ZONES WILL HAVE HOWEVER IS WIND. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POUR INTO THOSE
LOCATIONS AS THEIR THREAT OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MOVES TO THE EAST.

THEREFORE DID NOT ISSUE HEADLINES YET. THIS IS BECAUSE AT THIS TIME
A WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE SNOW SHOULD
BE FALLING EAST OF THERE. WHERE MOST OF THE SNOW DOES FALL TONIGHT
GENERALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS LEADING
TO WINDS WHICH ARE NOT VERY STRONG. SO THEREFORE IT DOES NOT MAKE A
LOT OF SENSE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES WHEN SNOW AMOUNTS BY ITSELF IS NOT REACHING CRITERIA.
SO WE WILL NEED WIND AND BLOWING SNOW TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AND BY THE TIME THIS SCENARIO GETS JUXTAPOSED WITH
FALLING SNOW...WE ARE NUDGING INTO THE THIRD PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN...THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY ADJUST WESTWARD...
THUS THRUSTING MORE OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO A DECENT SNOW BAND.
WILL MENTION ALL OF THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE NATURE OF WEATHER PROBLEMS WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING WHAT HIGHLIGHTS
ARE NEEDED...WILL DEPEND HOW THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BEHAVES TODAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM TO BE A GIVEN
FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT FAR FROM THAT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE KEY WILL BE THE TIMING...AMOUNT...AND LOCATION OF THE
BEST SNOW. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE THE UPPER SYSTEM DIGGING
A LITTLE MORE...SLOWING DOWN SOME...AND WRAPPING UP MORE AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD NOT ONLY BRING BETTER SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT SOME
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE BEST SNOW FALLING AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF AS IT STANDS NOW. THIS COULD
PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A LITTLE WHILE. FOR NOW IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY AND/OR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST MN SEEMS
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS FOR THE BETTER SNOW
POTENTIAL...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE WITH A SYSTEM SLOWDOWN AND/OR A
TRACK OF THE BEST SNOW INTO A LITTLE HIGHER WINDS. THE FORECAST AND
ESPECIALLY THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL REVEAL THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS AND THE STRONG WINDS BUT DETAILS SEEM
TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE SPECIFIC ADVISORIES.

VERY STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN THE MORNING EAST. WILL MENTION BLOWING SNOW
WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...TO LINGER IN PATCHY FORM INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW NO LONGER WILL BE FALLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING WEDNESDAY...AND OF COURSE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEDNESDAY...THEN IT LOOS LIKE
CLOUDS AT MID AND POSSIBLY LOW LEVELS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS
ALOFT. AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT OTHER THAN THE
WARM ADVECTION...WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER
SIDE OF ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT SOME TEENS LOWS SOUTHWEST
CORNER. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE TENS NORTHEAST TO
THE 30S SOUTHWEST AS SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.

FRIDAY WILL BRING A DECENT WARMUP...THEN A COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
OVERT HE WEEKEND...WITH WARMING TRYING TO START BACK UP AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP THE WARMING FRIDAY TO 30S HIGHS NORTHEAST HALF
WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER...TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER STILL. HOWEVER...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLE SNOW
COVER EFFECT...THE SUN ANGLE IS GETTING LOW AND ALLOWING LESS PUNCH
TO DAYTIME HEATING. IT IS A CLOSE CALL ON ADDING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AROUND SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WARM ADVECTION STARTING UP BY MONDAY SEEMS
TO WEAK THROUGH THAT TIME TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THAT DAY...BUT
THERE WILL BE FURTHER CHANCES TO REVISIT THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD.
IN ANY EVENT...THE BIGGEST WEATHER EVENT WILL BE EARLY IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CLOUDS FILLING INTO CENTRAL SD AT THIS TIME ARE VFR...AND THE
CLOSEST ORGANIZED MVFR CEILINGS ARE CLEAR BACK IN NORTHWEST ND.
THEREFORE FOR NOW...PUT KHON...KFSD AND KSUX AS VFR FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY BEGIN TO SNEAK INTO KHON BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS. BUT
OTHERWISE FOR LOWERED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE
NEXT CLIPPER TO IMPACT OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EVENTUALLY HITTING AFTER THIS SET OF TAFS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 250928
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD...
CURRENTLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...AND WILL OVERTAKE OUR EASTERN ZONES
FROM 12Z THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED AN ISOLATED
FLURRY WITH THE MENTION OF THESE CLOUDS FOR MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING...AS THE CLOUD LAYER IS ON THE EDGE OF DENDRITIC
TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 TO -12C. THEN ONCE THESE CLOUDS EXIT...MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM WEST TO EAST WHICH ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVES RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD RIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ITS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS EVER SO IMPORTANT WITH THESE SYSTEMS...
AS THE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL EXIST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. FIRST OF ALL TODAY...AHEAD OF THIS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. MOISTURE DEPTH SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIP CHANCES REALLY WILL NOT START IN OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING...
THE PRECIP IN THOSE AREAS WILL EITHER BE LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW MIX. THEN FOR TONIGHT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...MODEL CONSENSUS
INCLUDING THE ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ROUGHLY FROM NEAR
HURON...TO JUST WEST OF SIOUX FALLS...AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO CLOSE TO
STORM LAKE IA BY 12Z WED. THEREFORE CURRENTLY...MUCH OF THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL OF ABOUT 1.5 TO CLOSE TO 3.0 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THAT LINE...CUTTING OFF RAPIDLY TO THE WEST. WHAT OUR
WESTERN ZONES WILL HAVE HOWEVER IS WIND. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POUR INTO THOSE
LOCATIONS AS THEIR THREAT OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MOVES TO THE EAST.

THEREFORE DID NOT ISSUE HEADLINES YET. THIS IS BECAUSE AT THIS TIME
A WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE SNOW SHOULD
BE FALLING EAST OF THERE. WHERE MOST OF THE SNOW DOES FALL TONIGHT
GENERALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS LEADING
TO WINDS WHICH ARE NOT VERY STRONG. SO THEREFORE IT DOES NOT MAKE A
LOT OF SENSE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES WHEN SNOW AMOUNTS BY ITSELF IS NOT REACHING CRITERIA.
SO WE WILL NEED WIND AND BLOWING SNOW TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AND BY THE TIME THIS SCENARIO GETS JUXTAPOSED WITH
FALLING SNOW...WE ARE NUDGING INTO THE THIRD PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN...THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY ADJUST WESTWARD...
THUS THRUSTING MORE OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO A DECENT SNOW BAND.
WILL MENTION ALL OF THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE NATURE OF WEATHER PROBLEMS WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING WHAT HIGHLIGHTS
ARE NEEDED...WILL DEPEND HOW THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BEHAVES TODAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM TO BE A GIVEN
FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT FAR FROM THAT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE KEY WILL BE THE TIMING...AMOUNT...AND LOCATION OF THE
BEST SNOW. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE THE UPPER SYSTEM DIGGING
A LITTLE MORE...SLOWING DOWN SOME...AND WRAPPING UP MORE AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD NOT ONLY BRING BETTER SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT SOME
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE BEST SNOW FALLING AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF AS IT STANDS NOW. THIS COULD
PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A LITTLE WHILE. FOR NOW IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY AND/OR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST MN SEEMS
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS FOR THE BETTER SNOW
POTENTIAL...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE WITH A SYSTEM SLOWDOWN AND/OR A
TRACK OF THE BEST SNOW INTO A LITTLE HIGHER WINDS. THE FORECAST AND
ESPECIALLY THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL REVEAL THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS AND THE STRONG WINDS BUT DETAILS SEEM
TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE SPECIFIC ADVISORIES.

VERY STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN THE MORNING EAST. WILL MENTION BLOWING SNOW
WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...TO LINGER IN PATCHY FORM INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW NO LONGER WILL BE FALLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING WEDNESDAY...AND OF COURSE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEDNESDAY...THEN IT LOOS LIKE
CLOUDS AT MID AND POSSIBLY LOW LEVELS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS
ALOFT. AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT OTHER THAN THE
WARM ADVECTION...WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER
SIDE OF ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT SOME TEENS LOWS SOUTHWEST
CORNER. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE TENS NORTHEAST TO
THE 30S SOUTHWEST AS SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.

FRIDAY WILL BRING A DECENT WARMUP...THEN A COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
OVERT HE WEEKEND...WITH WARMING TRYING TO START BACK UP AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP THE WARMING FRIDAY TO 30S HIGHS NORTHEAST HALF
WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER...TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER STILL. HOWEVER...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLE SNOW
COVER EFFECT...THE SUN ANGLE IS GETTING LOW AND ALLOWING LESS PUNCH
TO DAYTIME HEATING. IT IS A CLOSE CALL ON ADDING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AROUND SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WARM ADVECTION STARTING UP BY MONDAY SEEMS
TO WEAK THROUGH THAT TIME TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THAT DAY...BUT
THERE WILL BE FURTHER CHANCES TO REVISIT THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD.
IN ANY EVENT...THE BIGGEST WEATHER EVENT WILL BE EARLY IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CLOUDS FILLING INTO CENTRAL SD AT THIS TIME ARE VFR...AND THE
CLOSEST ORGANIZED MVFR CEILINGS ARE CLEAR BACK IN NORTHWEST ND.
THEREFORE FOR NOW...PUT KHON...KFSD AND KSUX AS VFR FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY BEGIN TO SNEAK INTO KHON BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS. BUT
OTHERWISE FOR LOWERED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE
NEXT CLIPPER TO IMPACT OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EVENTUALLY HITTING AFTER THIS SET OF TAFS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 250928
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD...
CURRENTLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...AND WILL OVERTAKE OUR EASTERN ZONES
FROM 12Z THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED AN ISOLATED
FLURRY WITH THE MENTION OF THESE CLOUDS FOR MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING...AS THE CLOUD LAYER IS ON THE EDGE OF DENDRITIC
TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 TO -12C. THEN ONCE THESE CLOUDS EXIT...MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM WEST TO EAST WHICH ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVES RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD RIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ITS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS EVER SO IMPORTANT WITH THESE SYSTEMS...
AS THE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL EXIST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. FIRST OF ALL TODAY...AHEAD OF THIS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. MOISTURE DEPTH SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIP CHANCES REALLY WILL NOT START IN OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING...
THE PRECIP IN THOSE AREAS WILL EITHER BE LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW MIX. THEN FOR TONIGHT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...MODEL CONSENSUS
INCLUDING THE ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ROUGHLY FROM NEAR
HURON...TO JUST WEST OF SIOUX FALLS...AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO CLOSE TO
STORM LAKE IA BY 12Z WED. THEREFORE CURRENTLY...MUCH OF THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL OF ABOUT 1.5 TO CLOSE TO 3.0 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THAT LINE...CUTTING OFF RAPIDLY TO THE WEST. WHAT OUR
WESTERN ZONES WILL HAVE HOWEVER IS WIND. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POUR INTO THOSE
LOCATIONS AS THEIR THREAT OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MOVES TO THE EAST.

THEREFORE DID NOT ISSUE HEADLINES YET. THIS IS BECAUSE AT THIS TIME
A WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE SNOW SHOULD
BE FALLING EAST OF THERE. WHERE MOST OF THE SNOW DOES FALL TONIGHT
GENERALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS LEADING
TO WINDS WHICH ARE NOT VERY STRONG. SO THEREFORE IT DOES NOT MAKE A
LOT OF SENSE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES WHEN SNOW AMOUNTS BY ITSELF IS NOT REACHING CRITERIA.
SO WE WILL NEED WIND AND BLOWING SNOW TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AND BY THE TIME THIS SCENARIO GETS JUXTAPOSED WITH
FALLING SNOW...WE ARE NUDGING INTO THE THIRD PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN...THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY ADJUST WESTWARD...
THUS THRUSTING MORE OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO A DECENT SNOW BAND.
WILL MENTION ALL OF THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE NATURE OF WEATHER PROBLEMS WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING WHAT HIGHLIGHTS
ARE NEEDED...WILL DEPEND HOW THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BEHAVES TODAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM TO BE A GIVEN
FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT FAR FROM THAT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE KEY WILL BE THE TIMING...AMOUNT...AND LOCATION OF THE
BEST SNOW. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE THE UPPER SYSTEM DIGGING
A LITTLE MORE...SLOWING DOWN SOME...AND WRAPPING UP MORE AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD NOT ONLY BRING BETTER SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT SOME
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE BEST SNOW FALLING AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF AS IT STANDS NOW. THIS COULD
PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A LITTLE WHILE. FOR NOW IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY AND/OR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST MN SEEMS
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS FOR THE BETTER SNOW
POTENTIAL...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE WITH A SYSTEM SLOWDOWN AND/OR A
TRACK OF THE BEST SNOW INTO A LITTLE HIGHER WINDS. THE FORECAST AND
ESPECIALLY THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL REVEAL THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS AND THE STRONG WINDS BUT DETAILS SEEM
TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE SPECIFIC ADVISORIES.

VERY STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN THE MORNING EAST. WILL MENTION BLOWING SNOW
WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...TO LINGER IN PATCHY FORM INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW NO LONGER WILL BE FALLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING WEDNESDAY...AND OF COURSE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEDNESDAY...THEN IT LOOS LIKE
CLOUDS AT MID AND POSSIBLY LOW LEVELS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS
ALOFT. AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT OTHER THAN THE
WARM ADVECTION...WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER
SIDE OF ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT SOME TEENS LOWS SOUTHWEST
CORNER. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE TENS NORTHEAST TO
THE 30S SOUTHWEST AS SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.

FRIDAY WILL BRING A DECENT WARMUP...THEN A COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
OVERT HE WEEKEND...WITH WARMING TRYING TO START BACK UP AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP THE WARMING FRIDAY TO 30S HIGHS NORTHEAST HALF
WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER...TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER STILL. HOWEVER...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLE SNOW
COVER EFFECT...THE SUN ANGLE IS GETTING LOW AND ALLOWING LESS PUNCH
TO DAYTIME HEATING. IT IS A CLOSE CALL ON ADDING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AROUND SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WARM ADVECTION STARTING UP BY MONDAY SEEMS
TO WEAK THROUGH THAT TIME TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THAT DAY...BUT
THERE WILL BE FURTHER CHANCES TO REVISIT THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD.
IN ANY EVENT...THE BIGGEST WEATHER EVENT WILL BE EARLY IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CLOUDS FILLING INTO CENTRAL SD AT THIS TIME ARE VFR...AND THE
CLOSEST ORGANIZED MVFR CEILINGS ARE CLEAR BACK IN NORTHWEST ND.
THEREFORE FOR NOW...PUT KHON...KFSD AND KSUX AS VFR FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY BEGIN TO SNEAK INTO KHON BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS. BUT
OTHERWISE FOR LOWERED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE
NEXT CLIPPER TO IMPACT OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EVENTUALLY HITTING AFTER THIS SET OF TAFS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 250928
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD...
CURRENTLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...AND WILL OVERTAKE OUR EASTERN ZONES
FROM 12Z THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED AN ISOLATED
FLURRY WITH THE MENTION OF THESE CLOUDS FOR MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING...AS THE CLOUD LAYER IS ON THE EDGE OF DENDRITIC
TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 TO -12C. THEN ONCE THESE CLOUDS EXIT...MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM WEST TO EAST WHICH ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVES RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD RIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ITS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS EVER SO IMPORTANT WITH THESE SYSTEMS...
AS THE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL EXIST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. FIRST OF ALL TODAY...AHEAD OF THIS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. MOISTURE DEPTH SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIP CHANCES REALLY WILL NOT START IN OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING...
THE PRECIP IN THOSE AREAS WILL EITHER BE LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW MIX. THEN FOR TONIGHT...AS OF RIGHT NOW...MODEL CONSENSUS
INCLUDING THE ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ROUGHLY FROM NEAR
HURON...TO JUST WEST OF SIOUX FALLS...AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO CLOSE TO
STORM LAKE IA BY 12Z WED. THEREFORE CURRENTLY...MUCH OF THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL OF ABOUT 1.5 TO CLOSE TO 3.0 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THAT LINE...CUTTING OFF RAPIDLY TO THE WEST. WHAT OUR
WESTERN ZONES WILL HAVE HOWEVER IS WIND. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POUR INTO THOSE
LOCATIONS AS THEIR THREAT OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MOVES TO THE EAST.

THEREFORE DID NOT ISSUE HEADLINES YET. THIS IS BECAUSE AT THIS TIME
A WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE SNOW SHOULD
BE FALLING EAST OF THERE. WHERE MOST OF THE SNOW DOES FALL TONIGHT
GENERALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS LEADING
TO WINDS WHICH ARE NOT VERY STRONG. SO THEREFORE IT DOES NOT MAKE A
LOT OF SENSE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES WHEN SNOW AMOUNTS BY ITSELF IS NOT REACHING CRITERIA.
SO WE WILL NEED WIND AND BLOWING SNOW TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AND BY THE TIME THIS SCENARIO GETS JUXTAPOSED WITH
FALLING SNOW...WE ARE NUDGING INTO THE THIRD PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN...THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY ADJUST WESTWARD...
THUS THRUSTING MORE OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO A DECENT SNOW BAND.
WILL MENTION ALL OF THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE NATURE OF WEATHER PROBLEMS WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING WHAT HIGHLIGHTS
ARE NEEDED...WILL DEPEND HOW THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BEHAVES TODAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM TO BE A GIVEN
FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT FAR FROM THAT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE KEY WILL BE THE TIMING...AMOUNT...AND LOCATION OF THE
BEST SNOW. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE THE UPPER SYSTEM DIGGING
A LITTLE MORE...SLOWING DOWN SOME...AND WRAPPING UP MORE AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD NOT ONLY BRING BETTER SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT SOME
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE BEST SNOW FALLING AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF AS IT STANDS NOW. THIS COULD
PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A LITTLE WHILE. FOR NOW IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY AND/OR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST MN SEEMS
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS FOR THE BETTER SNOW
POTENTIAL...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE WITH A SYSTEM SLOWDOWN AND/OR A
TRACK OF THE BEST SNOW INTO A LITTLE HIGHER WINDS. THE FORECAST AND
ESPECIALLY THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL REVEAL THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS AND THE STRONG WINDS BUT DETAILS SEEM
TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE SPECIFIC ADVISORIES.

VERY STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN THE MORNING EAST. WILL MENTION BLOWING SNOW
WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...TO LINGER IN PATCHY FORM INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW NO LONGER WILL BE FALLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING WEDNESDAY...AND OF COURSE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEDNESDAY...THEN IT LOOS LIKE
CLOUDS AT MID AND POSSIBLY LOW LEVELS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS
ALOFT. AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT OTHER THAN THE
WARM ADVECTION...WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER
SIDE OF ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT SOME TEENS LOWS SOUTHWEST
CORNER. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE TENS NORTHEAST TO
THE 30S SOUTHWEST AS SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.

FRIDAY WILL BRING A DECENT WARMUP...THEN A COOLDOWN WILL TAKE PLACE
OVERT HE WEEKEND...WITH WARMING TRYING TO START BACK UP AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP THE WARMING FRIDAY TO 30S HIGHS NORTHEAST HALF
WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER...TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER STILL. HOWEVER...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLE SNOW
COVER EFFECT...THE SUN ANGLE IS GETTING LOW AND ALLOWING LESS PUNCH
TO DAYTIME HEATING. IT IS A CLOSE CALL ON ADDING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AROUND SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WARM ADVECTION STARTING UP BY MONDAY SEEMS
TO WEAK THROUGH THAT TIME TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THAT DAY...BUT
THERE WILL BE FURTHER CHANCES TO REVISIT THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD.
IN ANY EVENT...THE BIGGEST WEATHER EVENT WILL BE EARLY IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CLOUDS FILLING INTO CENTRAL SD AT THIS TIME ARE VFR...AND THE
CLOSEST ORGANIZED MVFR CEILINGS ARE CLEAR BACK IN NORTHWEST ND.
THEREFORE FOR NOW...PUT KHON...KFSD AND KSUX AS VFR FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY BEGIN TO SNEAK INTO KHON BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS. BUT
OTHERWISE FOR LOWERED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE
NEXT CLIPPER TO IMPACT OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EVENTUALLY HITTING AFTER THIS SET OF TAFS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities