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000
FXUS63 KABR 311733 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1233 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MINIMAL CHANGES MADE OR PLANNED FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. FULLY
EXPECTING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...POSSIBLY
INCLUDING A FEW SPRINKLES...WHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. KPIR
AND KMBG HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE PASSAGE AND HAVE NORTHWEST WINDS
THAT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS EVENING.
KABR WILL SEE NORTHWEST BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE RIGHT AROUND 18Z. KATY WILL GRADUALLY SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS
SWITCH TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL SD SO WILL INCLUDE
A VCSH MENTION AT KPIR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT/DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TMT




000
FXUS63 KABR 311733 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1233 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MINIMAL CHANGES MADE OR PLANNED FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. FULLY
EXPECTING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...POSSIBLY
INCLUDING A FEW SPRINKLES...WHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. KPIR
AND KMBG HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE PASSAGE AND HAVE NORTHWEST WINDS
THAT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS EVENING.
KABR WILL SEE NORTHWEST BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE RIGHT AROUND 18Z. KATY WILL GRADUALLY SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS
SWITCH TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL SD SO WILL INCLUDE
A VCSH MENTION AT KPIR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT/DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TMT


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000
FXUS63 KFSD 311724
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WARM...HUMID AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION AHEAD
OF WEAK COOL FRONT...PROGGED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL
ENTER THE AREA DRY AS LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT ALLOWS STRONG CAP
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM LOWER 80S NEAR/EAST
OF I-29...TO NEAR 90 WHERE MIXING IS MAXIMIZED IN THERMAL RIDGE JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

FRONT STALLS NEAR LAKE ANDES TO KBKX/KMML LINE OVERNIGHT...WITH
HUMID AIR MASS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 60S TONIGHT...
OR AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE 1ST OF
SEPTEMBER. MOISTURE STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING BETWEEN THE ABUNDANT
SURFACE HUMIDITY AND MID LEVELS...BUT WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION AS
MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THINK WE COULD SEE A
FEW ACCAS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED A LOW POP TO
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION...THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODIC LOW END RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO
HIGHS GENERALLY MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

IN THE NEARER TERM...LEFT TUESDAY DRY AS THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT
OVER OUR AREA. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THETA E ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FOCUSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE TO THAT...KEPT SMALL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH OUR LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA
ZONES DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN COME INTO PLAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGINS TO NUDGE EASTWARD...AS SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
INTO OUR AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALSO BEGIN TO GROW TOWARD THE END
OF THE EXTENDED...MOST NOTICEABLE WITH THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOMETIME IN THE SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE GFS
MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHAT DAY THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN
WITH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE IT WILL STALL BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. COULD SEE A LITTLE PATCH FOG DEVELOP IN THE I-29 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 311724
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WARM...HUMID AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION AHEAD
OF WEAK COOL FRONT...PROGGED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL
ENTER THE AREA DRY AS LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT ALLOWS STRONG CAP
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM LOWER 80S NEAR/EAST
OF I-29...TO NEAR 90 WHERE MIXING IS MAXIMIZED IN THERMAL RIDGE JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

FRONT STALLS NEAR LAKE ANDES TO KBKX/KMML LINE OVERNIGHT...WITH
HUMID AIR MASS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 60S TONIGHT...
OR AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE 1ST OF
SEPTEMBER. MOISTURE STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING BETWEEN THE ABUNDANT
SURFACE HUMIDITY AND MID LEVELS...BUT WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION AS
MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THINK WE COULD SEE A
FEW ACCAS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED A LOW POP TO
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION...THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODIC LOW END RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO
HIGHS GENERALLY MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

IN THE NEARER TERM...LEFT TUESDAY DRY AS THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT
OVER OUR AREA. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THETA E ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FOCUSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE TO THAT...KEPT SMALL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH OUR LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA
ZONES DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN COME INTO PLAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGINS TO NUDGE EASTWARD...AS SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
INTO OUR AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALSO BEGIN TO GROW TOWARD THE END
OF THE EXTENDED...MOST NOTICEABLE WITH THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOMETIME IN THE SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE GFS
MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHAT DAY THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN
WITH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE IT WILL STALL BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. COULD SEE A LITTLE PATCH FOG DEVELOP IN THE I-29 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KUNR 311709
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1109 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RADAR
STILL INDICATES SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD. ADDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY FOR ANY RAIN THAT MIGHT BE REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH
OBS STILL SHOW PRETTY DRY AIR SO IT MAY REMAIN VIRGA. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER WAVE CROSSING CNTRL TO ERN MT
INTO NRN WY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRES ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL
DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE...WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHING
THRU ERN MT/CNTRL WY TOWARD THE CWA. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA ARE IN THE
60S/70S...EVEN 80S ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPING N/NE BLKHLS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...OBS SHOWING TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S WITH WINDS OF 15 TO
30 GUSTING TO 30 TO 40 MPH. RADAR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY CROSSING WRN
SD...HOWEVER NEARLY ALL THE PRECIP IS VIRGA WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
REACHING THE GROUND. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NE WY TO WRN
SD IN THE NEXT 4/5 HOURS OR SO...AND CLEAR SCNTRL SD BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH...BUT IS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
THE WRN SD PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLKHLS. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER JUST FOR COUPLE HOURS OR SO
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FROPA. COULD SEE LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS MORNING AS MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DECIDING HOW MUCH
PRECIP WILL REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW CONSIDERING THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...BUT WILL REASSESS CLOSER
TO 12Z. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80S. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON NIGHT/TUE MRNG WITH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN PACIFIC
COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND BY THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPS INTO THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES CROSS THE REGION AND COOLER AIR FLOWS IN AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A NARROW BAND OF -SHRA
WILL MOVE ACROSS SCNTRL SD THROUGH THIS AFTN. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...BUNKERS



000
FXUS63 KUNR 311709
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1109 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RADAR
STILL INDICATES SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD. ADDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY FOR ANY RAIN THAT MIGHT BE REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH
OBS STILL SHOW PRETTY DRY AIR SO IT MAY REMAIN VIRGA. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER WAVE CROSSING CNTRL TO ERN MT
INTO NRN WY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRES ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL
DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE...WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHING
THRU ERN MT/CNTRL WY TOWARD THE CWA. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA ARE IN THE
60S/70S...EVEN 80S ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPING N/NE BLKHLS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...OBS SHOWING TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S WITH WINDS OF 15 TO
30 GUSTING TO 30 TO 40 MPH. RADAR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY CROSSING WRN
SD...HOWEVER NEARLY ALL THE PRECIP IS VIRGA WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
REACHING THE GROUND. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NE WY TO WRN
SD IN THE NEXT 4/5 HOURS OR SO...AND CLEAR SCNTRL SD BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH...BUT IS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
THE WRN SD PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLKHLS. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER JUST FOR COUPLE HOURS OR SO
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FROPA. COULD SEE LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS MORNING AS MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DECIDING HOW MUCH
PRECIP WILL REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW CONSIDERING THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...BUT WILL REASSESS CLOSER
TO 12Z. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80S. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON NIGHT/TUE MRNG WITH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN PACIFIC
COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND BY THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPS INTO THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES CROSS THE REGION AND COOLER AIR FLOWS IN AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A NARROW BAND OF -SHRA
WILL MOVE ACROSS SCNTRL SD THROUGH THIS AFTN. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...BUNKERS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 311459
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
859 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RADAR
STILL INDICATES SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD. ADDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY FOR ANY RAIN THAT MIGHT BE REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH
OBS STILL SHOW PRETTY DRY AIR SO IT MAY REMAIN VIRGA. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER WAVE CROSSING CNTRL TO ERN MT
INTO NRN WY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRES ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL
DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE...WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHING
THRU ERN MT/CNTRL WY TOWARD THE CWA. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA ARE IN THE
60S/70S...EVEN 80S ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPING N/NE BLKHLS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...OBS SHOWING TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S WITH WINDS OF 15 TO
30 GUSTING TO 30 TO 40 MPH. RADAR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY CROSSING WRN
SD...HOWEVER NEARLY ALL THE PRECIP IS VIRGA WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
REACHING THE GROUND. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NE WY TO WRN
SD IN THE NEXT 4/5 HOURS OR SO...AND CLEAR SCNTRL SD BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH...BUT IS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
THE WRN SD PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLKHLS. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER JUST FOR COUPLE HOURS OR SO
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FROPA. COULD SEE LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS MORNING AS MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DECIDING HOW MUCH
PRECIP WILL REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW CONSIDERING THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...BUT WILL REASSESS CLOSER
TO 12Z. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80S. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON NIGHT/TUE MRNG WITH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN PACIFIC
COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND BY THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPS INTO THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES CROSS THE REGION AND COOLER AIR FLOWS IN AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10



000
FXUS63 KUNR 311459
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
859 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RADAR
STILL INDICATES SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD. ADDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY FOR ANY RAIN THAT MIGHT BE REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH
OBS STILL SHOW PRETTY DRY AIR SO IT MAY REMAIN VIRGA. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER WAVE CROSSING CNTRL TO ERN MT
INTO NRN WY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRES ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL
DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE...WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHING
THRU ERN MT/CNTRL WY TOWARD THE CWA. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA ARE IN THE
60S/70S...EVEN 80S ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPING N/NE BLKHLS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...OBS SHOWING TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S WITH WINDS OF 15 TO
30 GUSTING TO 30 TO 40 MPH. RADAR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY CROSSING WRN
SD...HOWEVER NEARLY ALL THE PRECIP IS VIRGA WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
REACHING THE GROUND. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NE WY TO WRN
SD IN THE NEXT 4/5 HOURS OR SO...AND CLEAR SCNTRL SD BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH...BUT IS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
THE WRN SD PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLKHLS. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER JUST FOR COUPLE HOURS OR SO
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FROPA. COULD SEE LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS MORNING AS MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DECIDING HOW MUCH
PRECIP WILL REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW CONSIDERING THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...BUT WILL REASSESS CLOSER
TO 12Z. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80S. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON NIGHT/TUE MRNG WITH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN PACIFIC
COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND BY THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPS INTO THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES CROSS THE REGION AND COOLER AIR FLOWS IN AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10



000
FXUS63 KUNR 311459
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
859 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RADAR
STILL INDICATES SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD. ADDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY FOR ANY RAIN THAT MIGHT BE REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH
OBS STILL SHOW PRETTY DRY AIR SO IT MAY REMAIN VIRGA. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER WAVE CROSSING CNTRL TO ERN MT
INTO NRN WY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRES ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL
DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE...WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHING
THRU ERN MT/CNTRL WY TOWARD THE CWA. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA ARE IN THE
60S/70S...EVEN 80S ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPING N/NE BLKHLS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...OBS SHOWING TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S WITH WINDS OF 15 TO
30 GUSTING TO 30 TO 40 MPH. RADAR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY CROSSING WRN
SD...HOWEVER NEARLY ALL THE PRECIP IS VIRGA WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
REACHING THE GROUND. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NE WY TO WRN
SD IN THE NEXT 4/5 HOURS OR SO...AND CLEAR SCNTRL SD BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH...BUT IS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
THE WRN SD PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLKHLS. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER JUST FOR COUPLE HOURS OR SO
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FROPA. COULD SEE LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS MORNING AS MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DECIDING HOW MUCH
PRECIP WILL REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW CONSIDERING THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...BUT WILL REASSESS CLOSER
TO 12Z. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80S. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON NIGHT/TUE MRNG WITH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN PACIFIC
COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND BY THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPS INTO THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES CROSS THE REGION AND COOLER AIR FLOWS IN AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10



000
FXUS63 KUNR 311459
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
859 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RADAR
STILL INDICATES SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD. ADDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY FOR ANY RAIN THAT MIGHT BE REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH
OBS STILL SHOW PRETTY DRY AIR SO IT MAY REMAIN VIRGA. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER WAVE CROSSING CNTRL TO ERN MT
INTO NRN WY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRES ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL
DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE...WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHING
THRU ERN MT/CNTRL WY TOWARD THE CWA. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA ARE IN THE
60S/70S...EVEN 80S ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPING N/NE BLKHLS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...OBS SHOWING TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S WITH WINDS OF 15 TO
30 GUSTING TO 30 TO 40 MPH. RADAR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY CROSSING WRN
SD...HOWEVER NEARLY ALL THE PRECIP IS VIRGA WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
REACHING THE GROUND. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NE WY TO WRN
SD IN THE NEXT 4/5 HOURS OR SO...AND CLEAR SCNTRL SD BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH...BUT IS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
THE WRN SD PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLKHLS. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER JUST FOR COUPLE HOURS OR SO
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FROPA. COULD SEE LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS MORNING AS MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DECIDING HOW MUCH
PRECIP WILL REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW CONSIDERING THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...BUT WILL REASSESS CLOSER
TO 12Z. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80S. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON NIGHT/TUE MRNG WITH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN PACIFIC
COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND BY THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPS INTO THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES CROSS THE REGION AND COOLER AIR FLOWS IN AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10



000
FXUS63 KABR 311457 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
957 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MINIMAL CHANGES MADE OR PLANNED FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. FULLY
EXPECTING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...POSSIBLY
INCLUDING A FEW SPRINKLES...WHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...MAINLY FROM SUMMIT TO THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KABR 311457 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
957 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MINIMAL CHANGES MADE OR PLANNED FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. FULLY
EXPECTING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...POSSIBLY
INCLUDING A FEW SPRINKLES...WHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...MAINLY FROM SUMMIT TO THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 311126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...MAINLY FROM SUMMIT TO THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KABR 311126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...MAINLY FROM SUMMIT TO THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KABR 311126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...MAINLY FROM SUMMIT TO THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KABR 311126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...MAINLY FROM SUMMIT TO THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KABR 311126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...MAINLY FROM SUMMIT TO THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KABR 311126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...MAINLY FROM SUMMIT TO THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 311110
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
610 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WARM...HUMID AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION AHEAD
OF WEAK COOL FRONT...PROGGED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL
ENTER THE AREA DRY AS LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT ALLOWS STRONG CAP
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM LOWER 80S NEAR/EAST
OF I-29...TO NEAR 90 WHERE MIXING IS MAXIMIZED IN THERMAL RIDGE JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

FRONT STALLS NEAR LAKE ANDES TO KBKX/KMML LINE OVERNIGHT...WITH
HUMID AIR MASS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 60S TONIGHT...
OR AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE 1ST OF
SEPTEMBER. MOISTURE STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING BETWEEN THE ABUNDANT
SURFACE HUMIDITY AND MID LEVELS...BUT WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION AS
MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THINK WE COULD SEE A
FEW ACCAS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED A LOW POP TO
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION...THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODIC LOW END RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO
HIGHS GENERALLY MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

IN THE NEARER TERM...LEFT TUESDAY DRY AS THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT
OVER OUR AREA. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THETA E ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FOCUSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE TO THAT...KEPT SMALL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH OUR LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA
ZONES DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN COME INTO PLAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGINS TO NUDGE EASTWARD...AS SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
INTO OUR AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALSO BEGIN TO GROW TOWARD THE END
OF THE EXTENDED...MOST NOTICEABLE WITH THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOMETIME IN THE SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE GFS
MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHAT DAY THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN
WITH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG/STRATUS...WITH LOCALIZED LIFR
CONDITIONS...FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z-15Z
AS 20-30KT LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MIX THROUGH STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS EAST OF THE FRONT WILL SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
20-25KT TODAY...DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VARIABLE WINDS
UNDER 10KTS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...COULD
SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE LAYER TO BE MORE SHALLOW THAN
THIS MORNING...SO COULD RESULT IN MORE OF A SHALLOW FOG EVENT...
THOUGH AGAIN AREAS NEAR/EAST OF I-29 WOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE.
WITH CONFIDENCE LOW...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY VFR TONIGHT...BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EVALUATE FURTHER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 311110
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
610 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WARM...HUMID AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION AHEAD
OF WEAK COOL FRONT...PROGGED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL
ENTER THE AREA DRY AS LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT ALLOWS STRONG CAP
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM LOWER 80S NEAR/EAST
OF I-29...TO NEAR 90 WHERE MIXING IS MAXIMIZED IN THERMAL RIDGE JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

FRONT STALLS NEAR LAKE ANDES TO KBKX/KMML LINE OVERNIGHT...WITH
HUMID AIR MASS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 60S TONIGHT...
OR AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE 1ST OF
SEPTEMBER. MOISTURE STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING BETWEEN THE ABUNDANT
SURFACE HUMIDITY AND MID LEVELS...BUT WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION AS
MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THINK WE COULD SEE A
FEW ACCAS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED A LOW POP TO
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION...THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODIC LOW END RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO
HIGHS GENERALLY MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

IN THE NEARER TERM...LEFT TUESDAY DRY AS THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT
OVER OUR AREA. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THETA E ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FOCUSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE TO THAT...KEPT SMALL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH OUR LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA
ZONES DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN COME INTO PLAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGINS TO NUDGE EASTWARD...AS SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
INTO OUR AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALSO BEGIN TO GROW TOWARD THE END
OF THE EXTENDED...MOST NOTICEABLE WITH THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOMETIME IN THE SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE GFS
MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHAT DAY THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN
WITH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG/STRATUS...WITH LOCALIZED LIFR
CONDITIONS...FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z-15Z
AS 20-30KT LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MIX THROUGH STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS EAST OF THE FRONT WILL SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
20-25KT TODAY...DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VARIABLE WINDS
UNDER 10KTS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...COULD
SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE LAYER TO BE MORE SHALLOW THAN
THIS MORNING...SO COULD RESULT IN MORE OF A SHALLOW FOG EVENT...
THOUGH AGAIN AREAS NEAR/EAST OF I-29 WOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE.
WITH CONFIDENCE LOW...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY VFR TONIGHT...BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EVALUATE FURTHER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 311110
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
610 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WARM...HUMID AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION AHEAD
OF WEAK COOL FRONT...PROGGED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL
ENTER THE AREA DRY AS LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT ALLOWS STRONG CAP
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM LOWER 80S NEAR/EAST
OF I-29...TO NEAR 90 WHERE MIXING IS MAXIMIZED IN THERMAL RIDGE JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

FRONT STALLS NEAR LAKE ANDES TO KBKX/KMML LINE OVERNIGHT...WITH
HUMID AIR MASS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 60S TONIGHT...
OR AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE 1ST OF
SEPTEMBER. MOISTURE STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING BETWEEN THE ABUNDANT
SURFACE HUMIDITY AND MID LEVELS...BUT WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION AS
MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THINK WE COULD SEE A
FEW ACCAS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED A LOW POP TO
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION...THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODIC LOW END RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO
HIGHS GENERALLY MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

IN THE NEARER TERM...LEFT TUESDAY DRY AS THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT
OVER OUR AREA. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THETA E ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FOCUSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE TO THAT...KEPT SMALL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH OUR LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA
ZONES DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN COME INTO PLAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGINS TO NUDGE EASTWARD...AS SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
INTO OUR AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALSO BEGIN TO GROW TOWARD THE END
OF THE EXTENDED...MOST NOTICEABLE WITH THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOMETIME IN THE SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE GFS
MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHAT DAY THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN
WITH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG/STRATUS...WITH LOCALIZED LIFR
CONDITIONS...FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z-15Z
AS 20-30KT LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MIX THROUGH STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS EAST OF THE FRONT WILL SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
20-25KT TODAY...DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VARIABLE WINDS
UNDER 10KTS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...COULD
SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE LAYER TO BE MORE SHALLOW THAN
THIS MORNING...SO COULD RESULT IN MORE OF A SHALLOW FOG EVENT...
THOUGH AGAIN AREAS NEAR/EAST OF I-29 WOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE.
WITH CONFIDENCE LOW...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY VFR TONIGHT...BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EVALUATE FURTHER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 311110
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
610 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WARM...HUMID AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION AHEAD
OF WEAK COOL FRONT...PROGGED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL
ENTER THE AREA DRY AS LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT ALLOWS STRONG CAP
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM LOWER 80S NEAR/EAST
OF I-29...TO NEAR 90 WHERE MIXING IS MAXIMIZED IN THERMAL RIDGE JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

FRONT STALLS NEAR LAKE ANDES TO KBKX/KMML LINE OVERNIGHT...WITH
HUMID AIR MASS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 60S TONIGHT...
OR AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE 1ST OF
SEPTEMBER. MOISTURE STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING BETWEEN THE ABUNDANT
SURFACE HUMIDITY AND MID LEVELS...BUT WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION AS
MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THINK WE COULD SEE A
FEW ACCAS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED A LOW POP TO
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION...THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODIC LOW END RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO
HIGHS GENERALLY MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

IN THE NEARER TERM...LEFT TUESDAY DRY AS THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT
OVER OUR AREA. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THETA E ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FOCUSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE TO THAT...KEPT SMALL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH OUR LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA
ZONES DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN COME INTO PLAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGINS TO NUDGE EASTWARD...AS SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
INTO OUR AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALSO BEGIN TO GROW TOWARD THE END
OF THE EXTENDED...MOST NOTICEABLE WITH THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOMETIME IN THE SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE GFS
MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHAT DAY THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN
WITH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG/STRATUS...WITH LOCALIZED LIFR
CONDITIONS...FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z-15Z
AS 20-30KT LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MIX THROUGH STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS EAST OF THE FRONT WILL SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
20-25KT TODAY...DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VARIABLE WINDS
UNDER 10KTS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...COULD
SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE LAYER TO BE MORE SHALLOW THAN
THIS MORNING...SO COULD RESULT IN MORE OF A SHALLOW FOG EVENT...
THOUGH AGAIN AREAS NEAR/EAST OF I-29 WOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE.
WITH CONFIDENCE LOW...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY VFR TONIGHT...BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EVALUATE FURTHER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KUNR 310928
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
328 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER WAVE CROSSING CNTRL TO ERN MT
INTO NRN WY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRES ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL
DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE...WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHING
THRU ERN MT/CNTRL WY TOWARD THE CWA. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA ARE IN THE
60S/70S...EVEN 80S ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPING N/NE BLKHLS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...OBS SHOWING TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S WITH WINDS OF 15 TO
30 GUSTING TO 30 TO 40 MPH. RADAR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY CROSSING WRN
SD...HOWEVER NEARLY ALL THE PRECIP IS VIRGA WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
REACHING THE GROUND. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NE WY TO WRN
SD IN THE NEXT 4/5 HOURS OR SO...AND CLEAR SCNTRL SD BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH...BUT IS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
THE WRN SD PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLKHLS. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER JUST FOR COUPLE HOURS OR SO
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FROPA. COULD SEE LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS MORNING AS MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DECIDING HOW MUCH
PRECIP WILL REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW CONSIDERING THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...BUT WILL REASSESS CLOSER
TO 12Z. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80S. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON NGHT/TUE MRNG WITH WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TUE/TUE NGHT WITH BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN PACIFIC
COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND BY THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPS INTO THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES CROSS THE REGION AND COOLER AIR FLOWS IN AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10



000
FXUS63 KUNR 310928
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
328 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER WAVE CROSSING CNTRL TO ERN MT
INTO NRN WY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRES ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL
DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE...WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHING
THRU ERN MT/CNTRL WY TOWARD THE CWA. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA ARE IN THE
60S/70S...EVEN 80S ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPING N/NE BLKHLS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...OBS SHOWING TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S WITH WINDS OF 15 TO
30 GUSTING TO 30 TO 40 MPH. RADAR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY CROSSING WRN
SD...HOWEVER NEARLY ALL THE PRECIP IS VIRGA WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
REACHING THE GROUND. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NE WY TO WRN
SD IN THE NEXT 4/5 HOURS OR SO...AND CLEAR SCNTRL SD BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH...BUT IS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
THE WRN SD PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLKHLS. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER JUST FOR COUPLE HOURS OR SO
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FROPA. COULD SEE LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS MORNING AS MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DECIDING HOW MUCH
PRECIP WILL REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW CONSIDERING THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...BUT WILL REASSESS CLOSER
TO 12Z. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80S. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON NGHT/TUE MRNG WITH WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TUE/TUE NGHT WITH BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN PACIFIC
COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND BY THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPS INTO THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES CROSS THE REGION AND COOLER AIR FLOWS IN AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10



000
FXUS63 KUNR 310928
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
328 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER WAVE CROSSING CNTRL TO ERN MT
INTO NRN WY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRES ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL
DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE...WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHING
THRU ERN MT/CNTRL WY TOWARD THE CWA. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA ARE IN THE
60S/70S...EVEN 80S ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPING N/NE BLKHLS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...OBS SHOWING TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S WITH WINDS OF 15 TO
30 GUSTING TO 30 TO 40 MPH. RADAR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY CROSSING WRN
SD...HOWEVER NEARLY ALL THE PRECIP IS VIRGA WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
REACHING THE GROUND. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NE WY TO WRN
SD IN THE NEXT 4/5 HOURS OR SO...AND CLEAR SCNTRL SD BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH...BUT IS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
THE WRN SD PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLKHLS. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER JUST FOR COUPLE HOURS OR SO
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FROPA. COULD SEE LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS MORNING AS MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DECIDING HOW MUCH
PRECIP WILL REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW CONSIDERING THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...BUT WILL REASSESS CLOSER
TO 12Z. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80S. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON NGHT/TUE MRNG WITH WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TUE/TUE NGHT WITH BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN PACIFIC
COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND BY THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPS INTO THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES CROSS THE REGION AND COOLER AIR FLOWS IN AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10



000
FXUS63 KUNR 310928
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
328 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER WAVE CROSSING CNTRL TO ERN MT
INTO NRN WY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRES ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL
DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE...WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHING
THRU ERN MT/CNTRL WY TOWARD THE CWA. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA ARE IN THE
60S/70S...EVEN 80S ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPING N/NE BLKHLS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...OBS SHOWING TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S WITH WINDS OF 15 TO
30 GUSTING TO 30 TO 40 MPH. RADAR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY CROSSING WRN
SD...HOWEVER NEARLY ALL THE PRECIP IS VIRGA WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
REACHING THE GROUND. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NE WY TO WRN
SD IN THE NEXT 4/5 HOURS OR SO...AND CLEAR SCNTRL SD BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH...BUT IS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
THE WRN SD PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLKHLS. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER JUST FOR COUPLE HOURS OR SO
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FROPA. COULD SEE LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS MORNING AS MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DECIDING HOW MUCH
PRECIP WILL REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW CONSIDERING THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...BUT WILL REASSESS CLOSER
TO 12Z. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80S. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON NGHT/TUE MRNG WITH WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TUE/TUE NGHT WITH BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN PACIFIC
COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND BY THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPS INTO THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES CROSS THE REGION AND COOLER AIR FLOWS IN AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10



000
FXUS63 KFSD 310841
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
341 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WARM...HUMID AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION AHEAD
OF WEAK COOL FRONT...PROGGED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL
ENTER THE AREA DRY AS LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT ALLOWS STRONG CAP
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM LOWER 80S NEAR/EAST
OF I-29...TO NEAR 90 WHERE MIXING IS MAXIMIZED IN THERMAL RIDGE JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

FRONT STALLS NEAR LAKE ANDES TO KBKX/KMML LINE OVERNIGHT...WITH
HUMID AIR MASS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 60S TONIGHT...
OR AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE 1ST OF
SEPTEMBER. MOISTURE STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING BETWEEN THE ABUNDANT
SURFACE HUMIDITY AND MID LEVELS...BUT WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION AS
MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THINK WE COULD SEE A
FEW ACCAS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED A LOW POP TO
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION...THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODIC LOW END RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO
HIGHS GENERALLY MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

IN THE NEARER TERM...LEFT TUESDAY DRY AS THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT
OVER OUR AREA. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THETA E ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FOCUSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE TO THAT...KEPT SMALL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH OUR LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA
ZONES DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN COME INTO PLAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGINS TO NUDGE EASTWARD...AS SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
INTO OUR AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALSO BEGIN TO GROW TOWARD THE END
OF THE EXTENDED...MOST NOTICEABLE WITH THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOMETIME IN THE SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE GFS
MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHAT DAY THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN
WITH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR THE FORTHCOMING 06Z TAF SET...
ESPECIALLY FOR KFSD AND KSUX. ONCE AGAIN...CONCERNED ABOUT STRATUS
FOR KFSD AND KSUX. IN FACT KFSD HAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPED AN IFR
DECK WHICH ONE CANNOT SEE OF THE IR FOG CURVE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
CIRRUS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA. JUDGING FROM OBSERVATIONS IT IS
NOT VERY WIDESPREAD YET...BUT COULD BE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
THEREFORE KEPT THESE CEILINGS AS BROKEN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. LIKEWISE AT KSUX...WHO COULD VERY WELL SEE IFR
CONDITIONS THEMSELVES DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITH DENSE FOG NOT TOO
FAR TO THEIR SOUTH. THEY WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. KHON SHOULD STAY VFR TONIGHT AND CONTINUED TO LEAVE
OUT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THAT LOCATION WITH WELL MIXED WINDS
AT THE SURFACE.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 310841
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
341 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WARM...HUMID AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION AHEAD
OF WEAK COOL FRONT...PROGGED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL
ENTER THE AREA DRY AS LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT ALLOWS STRONG CAP
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM LOWER 80S NEAR/EAST
OF I-29...TO NEAR 90 WHERE MIXING IS MAXIMIZED IN THERMAL RIDGE JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

FRONT STALLS NEAR LAKE ANDES TO KBKX/KMML LINE OVERNIGHT...WITH
HUMID AIR MASS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 60S TONIGHT...
OR AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE 1ST OF
SEPTEMBER. MOISTURE STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING BETWEEN THE ABUNDANT
SURFACE HUMIDITY AND MID LEVELS...BUT WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION AS
MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THINK WE COULD SEE A
FEW ACCAS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED A LOW POP TO
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION...THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODIC LOW END RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO
HIGHS GENERALLY MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

IN THE NEARER TERM...LEFT TUESDAY DRY AS THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT
OVER OUR AREA. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THETA E ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FOCUSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE TO THAT...KEPT SMALL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH OUR LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA
ZONES DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN COME INTO PLAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGINS TO NUDGE EASTWARD...AS SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
INTO OUR AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALSO BEGIN TO GROW TOWARD THE END
OF THE EXTENDED...MOST NOTICEABLE WITH THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOMETIME IN THE SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE GFS
MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHAT DAY THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN
WITH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR THE FORTHCOMING 06Z TAF SET...
ESPECIALLY FOR KFSD AND KSUX. ONCE AGAIN...CONCERNED ABOUT STRATUS
FOR KFSD AND KSUX. IN FACT KFSD HAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPED AN IFR
DECK WHICH ONE CANNOT SEE OF THE IR FOG CURVE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
CIRRUS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA. JUDGING FROM OBSERVATIONS IT IS
NOT VERY WIDESPREAD YET...BUT COULD BE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
THEREFORE KEPT THESE CEILINGS AS BROKEN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. LIKEWISE AT KSUX...WHO COULD VERY WELL SEE IFR
CONDITIONS THEMSELVES DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITH DENSE FOG NOT TOO
FAR TO THEIR SOUTH. THEY WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. KHON SHOULD STAY VFR TONIGHT AND CONTINUED TO LEAVE
OUT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THAT LOCATION WITH WELL MIXED WINDS
AT THE SURFACE.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 310841
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
341 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WARM...HUMID AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION AHEAD
OF WEAK COOL FRONT...PROGGED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL
ENTER THE AREA DRY AS LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT ALLOWS STRONG CAP
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM LOWER 80S NEAR/EAST
OF I-29...TO NEAR 90 WHERE MIXING IS MAXIMIZED IN THERMAL RIDGE JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

FRONT STALLS NEAR LAKE ANDES TO KBKX/KMML LINE OVERNIGHT...WITH
HUMID AIR MASS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 60S TONIGHT...
OR AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE 1ST OF
SEPTEMBER. MOISTURE STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING BETWEEN THE ABUNDANT
SURFACE HUMIDITY AND MID LEVELS...BUT WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION AS
MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THINK WE COULD SEE A
FEW ACCAS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED A LOW POP TO
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION...THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODIC LOW END RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO
HIGHS GENERALLY MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

IN THE NEARER TERM...LEFT TUESDAY DRY AS THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT
OVER OUR AREA. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THETA E ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FOCUSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE TO THAT...KEPT SMALL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH OUR LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA
ZONES DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN COME INTO PLAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGINS TO NUDGE EASTWARD...AS SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
INTO OUR AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALSO BEGIN TO GROW TOWARD THE END
OF THE EXTENDED...MOST NOTICEABLE WITH THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOMETIME IN THE SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE GFS
MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHAT DAY THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN
WITH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR THE FORTHCOMING 06Z TAF SET...
ESPECIALLY FOR KFSD AND KSUX. ONCE AGAIN...CONCERNED ABOUT STRATUS
FOR KFSD AND KSUX. IN FACT KFSD HAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPED AN IFR
DECK WHICH ONE CANNOT SEE OF THE IR FOG CURVE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
CIRRUS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA. JUDGING FROM OBSERVATIONS IT IS
NOT VERY WIDESPREAD YET...BUT COULD BE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
THEREFORE KEPT THESE CEILINGS AS BROKEN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. LIKEWISE AT KSUX...WHO COULD VERY WELL SEE IFR
CONDITIONS THEMSELVES DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITH DENSE FOG NOT TOO
FAR TO THEIR SOUTH. THEY WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. KHON SHOULD STAY VFR TONIGHT AND CONTINUED TO LEAVE
OUT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THAT LOCATION WITH WELL MIXED WINDS
AT THE SURFACE.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 310841
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
341 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WARM...HUMID AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION AHEAD
OF WEAK COOL FRONT...PROGGED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL
ENTER THE AREA DRY AS LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT ALLOWS STRONG CAP
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM LOWER 80S NEAR/EAST
OF I-29...TO NEAR 90 WHERE MIXING IS MAXIMIZED IN THERMAL RIDGE JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

FRONT STALLS NEAR LAKE ANDES TO KBKX/KMML LINE OVERNIGHT...WITH
HUMID AIR MASS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 60S TONIGHT...
OR AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE 1ST OF
SEPTEMBER. MOISTURE STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING BETWEEN THE ABUNDANT
SURFACE HUMIDITY AND MID LEVELS...BUT WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION AS
MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THINK WE COULD SEE A
FEW ACCAS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED A LOW POP TO
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION...THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODIC LOW END RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO
HIGHS GENERALLY MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

IN THE NEARER TERM...LEFT TUESDAY DRY AS THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT
OVER OUR AREA. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THETA E ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FOCUSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE TO THAT...KEPT SMALL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH OUR LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA
ZONES DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN COME INTO PLAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGINS TO NUDGE EASTWARD...AS SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
INTO OUR AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALSO BEGIN TO GROW TOWARD THE END
OF THE EXTENDED...MOST NOTICEABLE WITH THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOMETIME IN THE SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE GFS
MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHAT DAY THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN
WITH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR THE FORTHCOMING 06Z TAF SET...
ESPECIALLY FOR KFSD AND KSUX. ONCE AGAIN...CONCERNED ABOUT STRATUS
FOR KFSD AND KSUX. IN FACT KFSD HAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPED AN IFR
DECK WHICH ONE CANNOT SEE OF THE IR FOG CURVE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
CIRRUS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA. JUDGING FROM OBSERVATIONS IT IS
NOT VERY WIDESPREAD YET...BUT COULD BE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
THEREFORE KEPT THESE CEILINGS AS BROKEN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. LIKEWISE AT KSUX...WHO COULD VERY WELL SEE IFR
CONDITIONS THEMSELVES DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITH DENSE FOG NOT TOO
FAR TO THEIR SOUTH. THEY WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. KHON SHOULD STAY VFR TONIGHT AND CONTINUED TO LEAVE
OUT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THAT LOCATION WITH WELL MIXED WINDS
AT THE SURFACE.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KABR 310816
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL. CHANCES OF PRECIP AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS
SLIGHT SO MADE NO MENTION. KMBG WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
SHOWER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KABR 310816
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL. CHANCES OF PRECIP AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS
SLIGHT SO MADE NO MENTION. KMBG WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
SHOWER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 310816
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL. CHANCES OF PRECIP AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS
SLIGHT SO MADE NO MENTION. KMBG WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
SHOWER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KABR 310816
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL. CHANCES OF PRECIP AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS
SLIGHT SO MADE NO MENTION. KMBG WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
SHOWER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KUNR 310541
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1141 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 802 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL ND INTO
CENTRAL WY WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM CENTRAL ND INTO WESTERN NE.
DEEP DAYTIME MIXING ALONG WITH INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PER
WATER VAPOUR RESULTED IN MAINLY HIGH-BASED -SHRA/-TSRA ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...WHICH ARE NOW MOVING NORTHEAST
UNDER MEAN FLOW ALOFT. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE OVERNIGHT. UPDATE
TO ADDRESS LATEST TRENDS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM FAR
EASTERN MT THROUGH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BULK OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST MT INTO NORTHWEST ND NEAR THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL WY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVER NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH SOME 80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST... BREEZY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY.

COLD FRONT WILL EVER SO SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WEAKENING SOME AS IT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL SD MONDAY
MORNING. MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE
OVER FAR NORTHWEST SD THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE EVENING AS CAPE VALUES REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...BECOMING BREEZY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 70 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
FURTHER WEAKEN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR SOUTHERN SD ON MONDAY IN CLOSER VICINITY TO
THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT CHANCES LOOK BELOW 15
PERCENT SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY. SOME COOLER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...70S IN THE
BLACK HILLS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NOAM WILL REMAIN THROUGH
MID WEEK...WITH EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN PER AN ADVECTING STRONG NORTHERN
PAC IMPULSE. THIS WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM TEMPS THROUGH THURS. STRONG
SUPPORT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONG
COLD FRONT TO ADVECT TROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PAC NW
UPPER TROUGH MERGES WITH A STRONG CENTRAL CANADIAN TROUGH.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOK LOW GIVEN LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WITH THE BULK OF LSA SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS LOOK MORE LIKELY BY SUN-MON NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S-60S POSSIBLE BY THEN. MEANWHILE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE-
THUR...ALTHOUGH A WEAK SIGNAL REMAINS OVER SCENTRAL SD TUES WHERE A
LL TROUGH AND MOISTURE ADV ARE PROGGED. DID BUMPS TEMPS UP TUE-THUR
GIVEN WARM-DRY SW FLOW WITH WARMER TEMPS NOW PROGGED IN CONSENSUS
BLENDS. OTHERWISE...COOLER CONDS WILL ARRIVE FRI-SAT...HOW COOL WILL
DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN THE ECMWF. MUCH COOLER CONDS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A COOL FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA INTO
MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF IT
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. LEFTOVER -TSRA WILL END BY
12Z. VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 15 PERCENT AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. A FEW ISOLD TS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY WITH ANY TS. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW AND
REMAINING GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 310541
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1141 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 802 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL ND INTO
CENTRAL WY WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM CENTRAL ND INTO WESTERN NE.
DEEP DAYTIME MIXING ALONG WITH INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PER
WATER VAPOUR RESULTED IN MAINLY HIGH-BASED -SHRA/-TSRA ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...WHICH ARE NOW MOVING NORTHEAST
UNDER MEAN FLOW ALOFT. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE OVERNIGHT. UPDATE
TO ADDRESS LATEST TRENDS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM FAR
EASTERN MT THROUGH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BULK OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST MT INTO NORTHWEST ND NEAR THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL WY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVER NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH SOME 80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST... BREEZY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY.

COLD FRONT WILL EVER SO SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WEAKENING SOME AS IT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL SD MONDAY
MORNING. MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE
OVER FAR NORTHWEST SD THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE EVENING AS CAPE VALUES REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...BECOMING BREEZY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 70 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
FURTHER WEAKEN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR SOUTHERN SD ON MONDAY IN CLOSER VICINITY TO
THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT CHANCES LOOK BELOW 15
PERCENT SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY. SOME COOLER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...70S IN THE
BLACK HILLS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NOAM WILL REMAIN THROUGH
MID WEEK...WITH EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN PER AN ADVECTING STRONG NORTHERN
PAC IMPULSE. THIS WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM TEMPS THROUGH THURS. STRONG
SUPPORT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONG
COLD FRONT TO ADVECT TROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PAC NW
UPPER TROUGH MERGES WITH A STRONG CENTRAL CANADIAN TROUGH.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOK LOW GIVEN LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WITH THE BULK OF LSA SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS LOOK MORE LIKELY BY SUN-MON NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S-60S POSSIBLE BY THEN. MEANWHILE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE-
THUR...ALTHOUGH A WEAK SIGNAL REMAINS OVER SCENTRAL SD TUES WHERE A
LL TROUGH AND MOISTURE ADV ARE PROGGED. DID BUMPS TEMPS UP TUE-THUR
GIVEN WARM-DRY SW FLOW WITH WARMER TEMPS NOW PROGGED IN CONSENSUS
BLENDS. OTHERWISE...COOLER CONDS WILL ARRIVE FRI-SAT...HOW COOL WILL
DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN THE ECMWF. MUCH COOLER CONDS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A COOL FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA INTO
MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF IT
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. LEFTOVER -TSRA WILL END BY
12Z. VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 15 PERCENT AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. A FEW ISOLD TS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY WITH ANY TS. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW AND
REMAINING GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 310541
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1141 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 802 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL ND INTO
CENTRAL WY WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM CENTRAL ND INTO WESTERN NE.
DEEP DAYTIME MIXING ALONG WITH INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PER
WATER VAPOUR RESULTED IN MAINLY HIGH-BASED -SHRA/-TSRA ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...WHICH ARE NOW MOVING NORTHEAST
UNDER MEAN FLOW ALOFT. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE OVERNIGHT. UPDATE
TO ADDRESS LATEST TRENDS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM FAR
EASTERN MT THROUGH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BULK OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST MT INTO NORTHWEST ND NEAR THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL WY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVER NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH SOME 80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST... BREEZY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY.

COLD FRONT WILL EVER SO SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WEAKENING SOME AS IT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL SD MONDAY
MORNING. MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE
OVER FAR NORTHWEST SD THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE EVENING AS CAPE VALUES REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...BECOMING BREEZY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 70 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
FURTHER WEAKEN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR SOUTHERN SD ON MONDAY IN CLOSER VICINITY TO
THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT CHANCES LOOK BELOW 15
PERCENT SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY. SOME COOLER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...70S IN THE
BLACK HILLS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NOAM WILL REMAIN THROUGH
MID WEEK...WITH EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN PER AN ADVECTING STRONG NORTHERN
PAC IMPULSE. THIS WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM TEMPS THROUGH THURS. STRONG
SUPPORT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONG
COLD FRONT TO ADVECT TROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PAC NW
UPPER TROUGH MERGES WITH A STRONG CENTRAL CANADIAN TROUGH.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOK LOW GIVEN LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WITH THE BULK OF LSA SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS LOOK MORE LIKELY BY SUN-MON NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S-60S POSSIBLE BY THEN. MEANWHILE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE-
THUR...ALTHOUGH A WEAK SIGNAL REMAINS OVER SCENTRAL SD TUES WHERE A
LL TROUGH AND MOISTURE ADV ARE PROGGED. DID BUMPS TEMPS UP TUE-THUR
GIVEN WARM-DRY SW FLOW WITH WARMER TEMPS NOW PROGGED IN CONSENSUS
BLENDS. OTHERWISE...COOLER CONDS WILL ARRIVE FRI-SAT...HOW COOL WILL
DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN THE ECMWF. MUCH COOLER CONDS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A COOL FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA INTO
MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF IT
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. LEFTOVER -TSRA WILL END BY
12Z. VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 15 PERCENT AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. A FEW ISOLD TS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY WITH ANY TS. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW AND
REMAINING GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 310541
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1141 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 802 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL ND INTO
CENTRAL WY WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM CENTRAL ND INTO WESTERN NE.
DEEP DAYTIME MIXING ALONG WITH INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PER
WATER VAPOUR RESULTED IN MAINLY HIGH-BASED -SHRA/-TSRA ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...WHICH ARE NOW MOVING NORTHEAST
UNDER MEAN FLOW ALOFT. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE OVERNIGHT. UPDATE
TO ADDRESS LATEST TRENDS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM FAR
EASTERN MT THROUGH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BULK OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST MT INTO NORTHWEST ND NEAR THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL WY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVER NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH SOME 80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST... BREEZY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY.

COLD FRONT WILL EVER SO SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WEAKENING SOME AS IT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL SD MONDAY
MORNING. MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE
OVER FAR NORTHWEST SD THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE EVENING AS CAPE VALUES REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...BECOMING BREEZY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 70 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
FURTHER WEAKEN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR SOUTHERN SD ON MONDAY IN CLOSER VICINITY TO
THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT CHANCES LOOK BELOW 15
PERCENT SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY. SOME COOLER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...70S IN THE
BLACK HILLS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NOAM WILL REMAIN THROUGH
MID WEEK...WITH EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN PER AN ADVECTING STRONG NORTHERN
PAC IMPULSE. THIS WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM TEMPS THROUGH THURS. STRONG
SUPPORT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONG
COLD FRONT TO ADVECT TROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PAC NW
UPPER TROUGH MERGES WITH A STRONG CENTRAL CANADIAN TROUGH.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOK LOW GIVEN LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WITH THE BULK OF LSA SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS LOOK MORE LIKELY BY SUN-MON NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S-60S POSSIBLE BY THEN. MEANWHILE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE-
THUR...ALTHOUGH A WEAK SIGNAL REMAINS OVER SCENTRAL SD TUES WHERE A
LL TROUGH AND MOISTURE ADV ARE PROGGED. DID BUMPS TEMPS UP TUE-THUR
GIVEN WARM-DRY SW FLOW WITH WARMER TEMPS NOW PROGGED IN CONSENSUS
BLENDS. OTHERWISE...COOLER CONDS WILL ARRIVE FRI-SAT...HOW COOL WILL
DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN THE ECMWF. MUCH COOLER CONDS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A COOL FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA INTO
MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF IT
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. LEFTOVER -TSRA WILL END BY
12Z. VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 15 PERCENT AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. A FEW ISOLD TS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY WITH ANY TS. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW AND
REMAINING GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...JC




000
FXUS63 KABR 310529 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1229 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TO SLOW DOWN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER CHANGES
WERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EASTERN SD
OVERNIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY SOUTH WINDS GOING. WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT
REMAINING OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL SD BY
12Z MONDAY...WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN CWA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HI
RES MODELS DO SHOW JUST A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. COOLER AIR FOLLOWS THIS
FRONT AND CENTRAL SD WILL SEE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT
WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY 850 MB TEMPS BEGIN WARMING
ONCE AGAIN WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COMMON ACROSS THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMO NORMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS TO
BE WORKING INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
UNTIL SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON`T LOOK ALL THAT GOOD.
BUT...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME MAINTAINS
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL. CHANCES OF PRECIP AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS
SLIGHT SO MADE NO MENTION. KMBG WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
SHOWER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 310529 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1229 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TO SLOW DOWN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER CHANGES
WERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EASTERN SD
OVERNIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY SOUTH WINDS GOING. WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT
REMAINING OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL SD BY
12Z MONDAY...WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN CWA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HI
RES MODELS DO SHOW JUST A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. COOLER AIR FOLLOWS THIS
FRONT AND CENTRAL SD WILL SEE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT
WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY 850 MB TEMPS BEGIN WARMING
ONCE AGAIN WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COMMON ACROSS THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMO NORMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS TO
BE WORKING INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
UNTIL SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON`T LOOK ALL THAT GOOD.
BUT...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME MAINTAINS
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL. CHANCES OF PRECIP AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS
SLIGHT SO MADE NO MENTION. KMBG WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
SHOWER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KFSD 310348
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1048 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS MARGINALLY MIXED THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD MEAN A LITTLE LESS FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER THAN THE PAST
TWO NIGHTS BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE LATEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA
SO STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A BIT HUMID AND WARM TONIGHT WITH MONDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS
TOO DRY FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MODELS IN THE EXTENDED TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY WARM...MUGGY AND
BREEZY WEEK AHEAD COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND HAVE PERIODIC POPS
SPRINKLED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

THERE IS A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY THAT WORKS THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING.  IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY FORM IN THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
AREA...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS DON/T REALLY ADVERTISE MUCH OF A WAVE.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT AND A 25-35 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  NOT A LOT
OF SPEED CONVERGENCE WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
COULD GET ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA TO SPROUT A FEW STORMS.

HAVE CONTINUED LOW POP MENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

MORE ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH SHORTWAVES STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TRANSLATING EAST.  HAVE
KEPT MID TO UPPER CHANCE RANGE POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL SHEAR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MID LEVEL SUPPORT SEEMS LIMITED THUS
KEEPING SEVERE CHANCES SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR THE FORTHCOMING 06Z TAF SET...
ESPECIALLY FOR KFSD AND KSUX. ONCE AGAIN...CONCERNED ABOUT STRATUS
FOR KFSD AND KSUX. IN FACT KFSD HAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPED AN IFR
DECK WHICH ONE CANNOT SEE OF THE IR FOG CURVE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
CIRRUS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA. JUDGING FROM OBSERVATIONS IT IS
NOT VERY WIDESPREAD YET...BUT COULD BE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
THEREFORE KEPT THESE CEILINGS AS BROKEN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. LIKEWISE AT KSUX...WHO COULD VERY WELL SEE IFR
CONDITIONS THEMSELVES DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITH DENSE FOG NOT TOO
FAR TO THEIR SOUTH. THEY WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. KHON SHOULD STAY VFR TONIGHT AND CONTINUED TO LEAVE
OUT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THAT LOCATION WITH WELL MIXED WINDS
AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KFSD 310348
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1048 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS MARGINALLY MIXED THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD MEAN A LITTLE LESS FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER THAN THE PAST
TWO NIGHTS BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE LATEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA
SO STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A BIT HUMID AND WARM TONIGHT WITH MONDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS
TOO DRY FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MODELS IN THE EXTENDED TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY WARM...MUGGY AND
BREEZY WEEK AHEAD COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND HAVE PERIODIC POPS
SPRINKLED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

THERE IS A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY THAT WORKS THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING.  IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY FORM IN THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
AREA...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS DON/T REALLY ADVERTISE MUCH OF A WAVE.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT AND A 25-35 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  NOT A LOT
OF SPEED CONVERGENCE WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
COULD GET ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA TO SPROUT A FEW STORMS.

HAVE CONTINUED LOW POP MENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

MORE ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH SHORTWAVES STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TRANSLATING EAST.  HAVE
KEPT MID TO UPPER CHANCE RANGE POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL SHEAR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MID LEVEL SUPPORT SEEMS LIMITED THUS
KEEPING SEVERE CHANCES SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR THE FORTHCOMING 06Z TAF SET...
ESPECIALLY FOR KFSD AND KSUX. ONCE AGAIN...CONCERNED ABOUT STRATUS
FOR KFSD AND KSUX. IN FACT KFSD HAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPED AN IFR
DECK WHICH ONE CANNOT SEE OF THE IR FOG CURVE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
CIRRUS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA. JUDGING FROM OBSERVATIONS IT IS
NOT VERY WIDESPREAD YET...BUT COULD BE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
THEREFORE KEPT THESE CEILINGS AS BROKEN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. LIKEWISE AT KSUX...WHO COULD VERY WELL SEE IFR
CONDITIONS THEMSELVES DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITH DENSE FOG NOT TOO
FAR TO THEIR SOUTH. THEY WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. KHON SHOULD STAY VFR TONIGHT AND CONTINUED TO LEAVE
OUT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THAT LOCATION WITH WELL MIXED WINDS
AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KUNR 310205
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
805 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 802 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL ND INTO
CENTRAL WY WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM CENTRAL ND INTO WESTERN NE.
DEEP DAYTIME MIXING ALONG WITH INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PER
WATER VAPOUR RESULTED IN MAINLY HIGH-BASED -SHRA/-TSRA ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...WHICH ARE NOW MOVING NORTHEAST
UNDER MEAN FLOW ALOFT. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE OVERNIGHT. UPDATE
TO ADDRESS LATEST TRENDS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM FAR
EASTERN MT THROUGH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BULK OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST MT INTO NORTHWEST ND NEAR THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL WY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVER NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH SOME 80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST... BREEZY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY.

COLD FRONT WILL EVER SO SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WEAKENING SOME AS IT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL SD MONDAY
MORNING. MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE
OVER FAR NORTHWEST SD THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE EVENING AS CAPE VALUES REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...BECOMING BREEZY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 70 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
FURTHER WEAKEN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR SOUTHERN SD ON MONDAY IN CLOSER VICINITY TO
THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT CHANCES LOOK BELOW 15
PERCENT SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY. SOME COOLER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...70S IN THE
BLACK HILLS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NOAM WILL REMAIN THROUGH
MID WEEK...WITH EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN PER AN ADVECTING STRONG NORTHERN
PAC IMPULSE. THIS WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM TEMPS THROUGH THURS. STRONG
SUPPORT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONG
COLD FRONT TO ADVECT TROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PAC NW
UPPER TROUGH MERGES WITH A STRONG CENTRAL CANADIAN TROUGH.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOK LOW GIVEN LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WITH THE BULK OF LSA SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS LOOK MORE LIKELY BY SUN-MON NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S-60S POSSIBLE BY THEN. MEANWHILE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE-
THUR...ALTHOUGH A WEAK SIGNAL REMAINS OVER SCENTRAL SD TUES WHERE A
LL TROUGH AND MOISTURE ADV ARE PROGGED. DID BUMPS TEMPS UP TUE-THUR
GIVEN WARM-DRY SW FLOW WITH WARMER TEMPS NOW PROGGED IN CONSENSUS
BLENDS. OTHERWISE...COOLER CONDS WILL ARRIVE FRI-SAT...HOW COOL WILL
DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN THE ECMWF. MUCH COOLER CONDS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A COOL FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
IT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. ISOLATED HIGH BASED -TSRA
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
AROUND 40KTS. VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 15 PERCENT AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. A FEW ISOLD TS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY WITH ANY TS. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW AND
REMAINING GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 310205
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
805 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 802 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL ND INTO
CENTRAL WY WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM CENTRAL ND INTO WESTERN NE.
DEEP DAYTIME MIXING ALONG WITH INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PER
WATER VAPOUR RESULTED IN MAINLY HIGH-BASED -SHRA/-TSRA ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...WHICH ARE NOW MOVING NORTHEAST
UNDER MEAN FLOW ALOFT. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE OVERNIGHT. UPDATE
TO ADDRESS LATEST TRENDS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM FAR
EASTERN MT THROUGH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BULK OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST MT INTO NORTHWEST ND NEAR THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL WY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVER NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH SOME 80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST... BREEZY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY.

COLD FRONT WILL EVER SO SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WEAKENING SOME AS IT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL SD MONDAY
MORNING. MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE
OVER FAR NORTHWEST SD THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE EVENING AS CAPE VALUES REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...BECOMING BREEZY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 70 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
FURTHER WEAKEN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR SOUTHERN SD ON MONDAY IN CLOSER VICINITY TO
THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT CHANCES LOOK BELOW 15
PERCENT SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY. SOME COOLER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...70S IN THE
BLACK HILLS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NOAM WILL REMAIN THROUGH
MID WEEK...WITH EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN PER AN ADVECTING STRONG NORTHERN
PAC IMPULSE. THIS WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM TEMPS THROUGH THURS. STRONG
SUPPORT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONG
COLD FRONT TO ADVECT TROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PAC NW
UPPER TROUGH MERGES WITH A STRONG CENTRAL CANADIAN TROUGH.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOK LOW GIVEN LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WITH THE BULK OF LSA SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS LOOK MORE LIKELY BY SUN-MON NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S-60S POSSIBLE BY THEN. MEANWHILE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE-
THUR...ALTHOUGH A WEAK SIGNAL REMAINS OVER SCENTRAL SD TUES WHERE A
LL TROUGH AND MOISTURE ADV ARE PROGGED. DID BUMPS TEMPS UP TUE-THUR
GIVEN WARM-DRY SW FLOW WITH WARMER TEMPS NOW PROGGED IN CONSENSUS
BLENDS. OTHERWISE...COOLER CONDS WILL ARRIVE FRI-SAT...HOW COOL WILL
DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN THE ECMWF. MUCH COOLER CONDS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A COOL FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
IT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. ISOLATED HIGH BASED -TSRA
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
AROUND 40KTS. VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 15 PERCENT AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. A FEW ISOLD TS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY WITH ANY TS. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW AND
REMAINING GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...JC




000
FXUS63 KFSD 302339
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
639 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS MARGINALLY MIXED THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD MEAN A LITTLE LESS FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER THAN THE PAST
TWO NIGHTS BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE LATEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA
SO STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A BIT HUMID AND WARM TONIGHT WITH MONDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS
TOO DRY FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MODELS IN THE EXTENDED TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY WARM...MUGGY AND
BREEZY WEEK AHEAD COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND HAVE PERIODIC POPS
SPRINKLED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

THERE IS A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY THAT WORKS THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING.  IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY FORM IN THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
AREA...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS DON/T REALLY ADVERTISE MUCH OF A WAVE.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT AND A 25-35 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  NOT A LOT
OF SPEED CONVERGENCE WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
COULD GET ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA TO SPROUT A FEW STORMS.

HAVE CONTINUED LOW POP MENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

MORE ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH SHORTWAVES STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TRANSLATING EAST.  HAVE
KEPT MID TO UPPER CHANCE RANGE POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL SHEAR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MID LEVEL SUPPORT SEEMS LIMITED THUS
KEEPING SEVERE CHANCES SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRETTY THICK SMOKE PLUME EXISTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. VISUALLY AT KFSD...AND ON WEBCAMS IN SIOUX CITY...DECIDED TO
GO 6SM IN SMOKE TONIGHT AS THE SLANT VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE THE
BEST. HURON WEBCAMS LOOKED A LITTLE BETTER IN TERMS OF VISIBILITY.
ONE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS STRATUS AGAIN AT KFSD AND KSUX.
DESPITE MIXING BETTER TODAY...THE LOW CLOUDS DID NOT ERODE VERY
FAR FROM OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES NEAR STORM LAKE IOWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS BOTHERSOME...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IFR TO MVFR
STRATUS COULD FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OR AROUND SUNRISE AT KFSD
AND KSUX. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY TONIGHT. FINALLY...LOW LEVEL
JET IS STOUT TONIGHT...MOST PROMINENT AT KHON WHERE THE SPEED IS
40 KNOTS AT 1500 FEET AGL. LEFT NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OUT OF THE TAFS AS SURFACE MIXING SHOULD STAY FAIRLY
ROBUST...WHICH IS ALSO THE MAIN REASON CHOSE NOT TO PUT IN LIFR
AT KFSD AND KSUX LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 302339
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
639 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS MARGINALLY MIXED THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD MEAN A LITTLE LESS FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER THAN THE PAST
TWO NIGHTS BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE LATEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA
SO STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A BIT HUMID AND WARM TONIGHT WITH MONDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS
TOO DRY FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MODELS IN THE EXTENDED TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY WARM...MUGGY AND
BREEZY WEEK AHEAD COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND HAVE PERIODIC POPS
SPRINKLED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

THERE IS A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY THAT WORKS THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING.  IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY FORM IN THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
AREA...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS DON/T REALLY ADVERTISE MUCH OF A WAVE.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT AND A 25-35 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  NOT A LOT
OF SPEED CONVERGENCE WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
COULD GET ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA TO SPROUT A FEW STORMS.

HAVE CONTINUED LOW POP MENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

MORE ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH SHORTWAVES STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TRANSLATING EAST.  HAVE
KEPT MID TO UPPER CHANCE RANGE POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL SHEAR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MID LEVEL SUPPORT SEEMS LIMITED THUS
KEEPING SEVERE CHANCES SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRETTY THICK SMOKE PLUME EXISTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. VISUALLY AT KFSD...AND ON WEBCAMS IN SIOUX CITY...DECIDED TO
GO 6SM IN SMOKE TONIGHT AS THE SLANT VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE THE
BEST. HURON WEBCAMS LOOKED A LITTLE BETTER IN TERMS OF VISIBILITY.
ONE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS STRATUS AGAIN AT KFSD AND KSUX.
DESPITE MIXING BETTER TODAY...THE LOW CLOUDS DID NOT ERODE VERY
FAR FROM OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES NEAR STORM LAKE IOWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS BOTHERSOME...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IFR TO MVFR
STRATUS COULD FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OR AROUND SUNRISE AT KFSD
AND KSUX. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY TONIGHT. FINALLY...LOW LEVEL
JET IS STOUT TONIGHT...MOST PROMINENT AT KHON WHERE THE SPEED IS
40 KNOTS AT 1500 FEET AGL. LEFT NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OUT OF THE TAFS AS SURFACE MIXING SHOULD STAY FAIRLY
ROBUST...WHICH IS ALSO THE MAIN REASON CHOSE NOT TO PUT IN LIFR
AT KFSD AND KSUX LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 302339
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
639 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS MARGINALLY MIXED THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD MEAN A LITTLE LESS FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER THAN THE PAST
TWO NIGHTS BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE LATEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA
SO STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A BIT HUMID AND WARM TONIGHT WITH MONDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS
TOO DRY FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MODELS IN THE EXTENDED TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY WARM...MUGGY AND
BREEZY WEEK AHEAD COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND HAVE PERIODIC POPS
SPRINKLED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

THERE IS A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY THAT WORKS THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING.  IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY FORM IN THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
AREA...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS DON/T REALLY ADVERTISE MUCH OF A WAVE.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT AND A 25-35 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  NOT A LOT
OF SPEED CONVERGENCE WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
COULD GET ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA TO SPROUT A FEW STORMS.

HAVE CONTINUED LOW POP MENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

MORE ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH SHORTWAVES STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TRANSLATING EAST.  HAVE
KEPT MID TO UPPER CHANCE RANGE POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL SHEAR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MID LEVEL SUPPORT SEEMS LIMITED THUS
KEEPING SEVERE CHANCES SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRETTY THICK SMOKE PLUME EXISTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. VISUALLY AT KFSD...AND ON WEBCAMS IN SIOUX CITY...DECIDED TO
GO 6SM IN SMOKE TONIGHT AS THE SLANT VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE THE
BEST. HURON WEBCAMS LOOKED A LITTLE BETTER IN TERMS OF VISIBILITY.
ONE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS STRATUS AGAIN AT KFSD AND KSUX.
DESPITE MIXING BETTER TODAY...THE LOW CLOUDS DID NOT ERODE VERY
FAR FROM OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES NEAR STORM LAKE IOWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS BOTHERSOME...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IFR TO MVFR
STRATUS COULD FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OR AROUND SUNRISE AT KFSD
AND KSUX. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY TONIGHT. FINALLY...LOW LEVEL
JET IS STOUT TONIGHT...MOST PROMINENT AT KHON WHERE THE SPEED IS
40 KNOTS AT 1500 FEET AGL. LEFT NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OUT OF THE TAFS AS SURFACE MIXING SHOULD STAY FAIRLY
ROBUST...WHICH IS ALSO THE MAIN REASON CHOSE NOT TO PUT IN LIFR
AT KFSD AND KSUX LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 302339
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
639 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS MARGINALLY MIXED THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD MEAN A LITTLE LESS FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER THAN THE PAST
TWO NIGHTS BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE LATEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA
SO STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A BIT HUMID AND WARM TONIGHT WITH MONDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS
TOO DRY FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MODELS IN THE EXTENDED TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY WARM...MUGGY AND
BREEZY WEEK AHEAD COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND HAVE PERIODIC POPS
SPRINKLED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

THERE IS A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY THAT WORKS THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING.  IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY FORM IN THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
AREA...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS DON/T REALLY ADVERTISE MUCH OF A WAVE.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT AND A 25-35 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  NOT A LOT
OF SPEED CONVERGENCE WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
COULD GET ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA TO SPROUT A FEW STORMS.

HAVE CONTINUED LOW POP MENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

MORE ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH SHORTWAVES STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TRANSLATING EAST.  HAVE
KEPT MID TO UPPER CHANCE RANGE POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL SHEAR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MID LEVEL SUPPORT SEEMS LIMITED THUS
KEEPING SEVERE CHANCES SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRETTY THICK SMOKE PLUME EXISTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. VISUALLY AT KFSD...AND ON WEBCAMS IN SIOUX CITY...DECIDED TO
GO 6SM IN SMOKE TONIGHT AS THE SLANT VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE THE
BEST. HURON WEBCAMS LOOKED A LITTLE BETTER IN TERMS OF VISIBILITY.
ONE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS STRATUS AGAIN AT KFSD AND KSUX.
DESPITE MIXING BETTER TODAY...THE LOW CLOUDS DID NOT ERODE VERY
FAR FROM OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES NEAR STORM LAKE IOWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS BOTHERSOME...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IFR TO MVFR
STRATUS COULD FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OR AROUND SUNRISE AT KFSD
AND KSUX. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY TONIGHT. FINALLY...LOW LEVEL
JET IS STOUT TONIGHT...MOST PROMINENT AT KHON WHERE THE SPEED IS
40 KNOTS AT 1500 FEET AGL. LEFT NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OUT OF THE TAFS AS SURFACE MIXING SHOULD STAY FAIRLY
ROBUST...WHICH IS ALSO THE MAIN REASON CHOSE NOT TO PUT IN LIFR
AT KFSD AND KSUX LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KABR 302334 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
634 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TO SLOW DOWN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER CHANGES
WERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EASTERN SD
OVERNIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY SOUTH WINDS GOING. WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT
REMAINING OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL SD BY
12Z MONDAY...WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN CWA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HI
RES MODELS DO SHOW JUST A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. COOLER AIR FOLLOWS THIS
FRONT AND CENTRAL SD WILL SEE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT
WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY 850 MB TEMPS BEGIN WARMING
ONCE AGAIN WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COMMON ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMO NORMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS TO
BE WORKING INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
UNTIL SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON`T LOOK ALL THAT GOOD.
BUT...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME MAINTAINS
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL. CHANCES OF PRECIP AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS
SLIGHT SO MADE NO MENTION. KMBG WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
A SHOWER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME HAZE THIS EVENING NEAR KPIR REDUCING VSBY TO
MVFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE



000
FXUS63 KABR 302334 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
634 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TO SLOW DOWN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER CHANGES
WERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EASTERN SD
OVERNIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY SOUTH WINDS GOING. WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT
REMAINING OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL SD BY
12Z MONDAY...WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN CWA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HI
RES MODELS DO SHOW JUST A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. COOLER AIR FOLLOWS THIS
FRONT AND CENTRAL SD WILL SEE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT
WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY 850 MB TEMPS BEGIN WARMING
ONCE AGAIN WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COMMON ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMO NORMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS TO
BE WORKING INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
UNTIL SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON`T LOOK ALL THAT GOOD.
BUT...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME MAINTAINS
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL. CHANCES OF PRECIP AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS
SLIGHT SO MADE NO MENTION. KMBG WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
A SHOWER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME HAZE THIS EVENING NEAR KPIR REDUCING VSBY TO
MVFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 302322
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
522 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM FAR
EASTERN MT THROUGH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BULK OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST MT INTO NORTHWEST ND NEAR THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL WY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVER NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH SOME 80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST... BREEZY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY.

COLD FRONT WILL EVER SO SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WEAKENING SOME AS IT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL SD MONDAY
MORNING. MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE
OVER FAR NORTHWEST SD THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE EVENING AS CAPE VALUES REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...BECOMING BREEZY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 70 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
FURTHER WEAKEN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR SOUTHERN SD ON MONDAY IN CLOSER VICINITY TO
THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT CHANCES LOOK BELOW 15
PERCENT SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY. SOME COOLER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...70S IN THE
BLACK HILLS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NOAM WILL REMAIN THROUGH
MID WEEK...WITH EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN PER AN ADVECTING STRONG NORTHERN
PAC IMPULSE. THIS WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM TEMPS THROUGH THURS. STRONG
SUPPORT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONG
COLD FRONT TO ADVECT TROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PAC NW
UPPER TROUGH MERGES WITH A STRONG CENTRAL CANADIAN TROUGH.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOK LOW GIVEN LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WITH THE BULK OF LSA SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS LOOK MORE LIKELY BY SUN-MON NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S-60S POSSIBLE BY THEN. MEANWHILE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE-
THUR...ALTHOUGH A WEAK SIGNAL REMAINS OVER SCENTRAL SD TUES WHERE A
LL TROUGH AND MOISTURE ADV ARE PROGGED. DID BUMPS TEMPS UP TUE-THUR
GIVEN WARM-DRY SW FLOW WITH WARMER TEMPS NOW PROGGED IN CONSENSUS
BLENDS. OTHERWISE...COOLER CONDS WILL ARRIVE FRI-SAT...HOW COOL WILL
DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN THE ECMWF. MUCH COOLER CONDS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A COOL FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
IT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. ISOLATED HIGH BASED -TSRA
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
AROUND 40KTS. VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 15 PERCENT AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. A FEW ISOLD TS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY WITH ANY TS. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW AND
REMAINING GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 302322
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
522 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM FAR
EASTERN MT THROUGH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BULK OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST MT INTO NORTHWEST ND NEAR THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL WY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVER NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH SOME 80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST... BREEZY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY.

COLD FRONT WILL EVER SO SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WEAKENING SOME AS IT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL SD MONDAY
MORNING. MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE
OVER FAR NORTHWEST SD THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE EVENING AS CAPE VALUES REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...BECOMING BREEZY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 70 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
FURTHER WEAKEN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR SOUTHERN SD ON MONDAY IN CLOSER VICINITY TO
THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT CHANCES LOOK BELOW 15
PERCENT SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY. SOME COOLER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...70S IN THE
BLACK HILLS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NOAM WILL REMAIN THROUGH
MID WEEK...WITH EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN PER AN ADVECTING STRONG NORTHERN
PAC IMPULSE. THIS WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM TEMPS THROUGH THURS. STRONG
SUPPORT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONG
COLD FRONT TO ADVECT TROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PAC NW
UPPER TROUGH MERGES WITH A STRONG CENTRAL CANADIAN TROUGH.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOK LOW GIVEN LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WITH THE BULK OF LSA SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS LOOK MORE LIKELY BY SUN-MON NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S-60S POSSIBLE BY THEN. MEANWHILE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE-
THUR...ALTHOUGH A WEAK SIGNAL REMAINS OVER SCENTRAL SD TUES WHERE A
LL TROUGH AND MOISTURE ADV ARE PROGGED. DID BUMPS TEMPS UP TUE-THUR
GIVEN WARM-DRY SW FLOW WITH WARMER TEMPS NOW PROGGED IN CONSENSUS
BLENDS. OTHERWISE...COOLER CONDS WILL ARRIVE FRI-SAT...HOW COOL WILL
DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN THE ECMWF. MUCH COOLER CONDS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A COOL FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
IT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. ISOLATED HIGH BASED -TSRA
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
AROUND 40KTS. VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 15 PERCENT AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. A FEW ISOLD TS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY WITH ANY TS. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW AND
REMAINING GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 302322
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
522 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM FAR
EASTERN MT THROUGH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BULK OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST MT INTO NORTHWEST ND NEAR THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL WY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVER NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH SOME 80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST... BREEZY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY.

COLD FRONT WILL EVER SO SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WEAKENING SOME AS IT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL SD MONDAY
MORNING. MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE
OVER FAR NORTHWEST SD THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE EVENING AS CAPE VALUES REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...BECOMING BREEZY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 70 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
FURTHER WEAKEN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR SOUTHERN SD ON MONDAY IN CLOSER VICINITY TO
THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT CHANCES LOOK BELOW 15
PERCENT SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY. SOME COOLER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...70S IN THE
BLACK HILLS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NOAM WILL REMAIN THROUGH
MID WEEK...WITH EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN PER AN ADVECTING STRONG NORTHERN
PAC IMPULSE. THIS WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM TEMPS THROUGH THURS. STRONG
SUPPORT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONG
COLD FRONT TO ADVECT TROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PAC NW
UPPER TROUGH MERGES WITH A STRONG CENTRAL CANADIAN TROUGH.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOK LOW GIVEN LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WITH THE BULK OF LSA SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS LOOK MORE LIKELY BY SUN-MON NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S-60S POSSIBLE BY THEN. MEANWHILE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE-
THUR...ALTHOUGH A WEAK SIGNAL REMAINS OVER SCENTRAL SD TUES WHERE A
LL TROUGH AND MOISTURE ADV ARE PROGGED. DID BUMPS TEMPS UP TUE-THUR
GIVEN WARM-DRY SW FLOW WITH WARMER TEMPS NOW PROGGED IN CONSENSUS
BLENDS. OTHERWISE...COOLER CONDS WILL ARRIVE FRI-SAT...HOW COOL WILL
DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN THE ECMWF. MUCH COOLER CONDS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A COOL FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
IT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. ISOLATED HIGH BASED -TSRA
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
AROUND 40KTS. VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 15 PERCENT AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. A FEW ISOLD TS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY WITH ANY TS. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW AND
REMAINING GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 302322
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
522 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM FAR
EASTERN MT THROUGH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BULK OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST MT INTO NORTHWEST ND NEAR THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL WY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVER NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH SOME 80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST... BREEZY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY.

COLD FRONT WILL EVER SO SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WEAKENING SOME AS IT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL SD MONDAY
MORNING. MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE
OVER FAR NORTHWEST SD THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE EVENING AS CAPE VALUES REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...BECOMING BREEZY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 70 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
FURTHER WEAKEN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR SOUTHERN SD ON MONDAY IN CLOSER VICINITY TO
THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT CHANCES LOOK BELOW 15
PERCENT SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY. SOME COOLER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...70S IN THE
BLACK HILLS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NOAM WILL REMAIN THROUGH
MID WEEK...WITH EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN PER AN ADVECTING STRONG NORTHERN
PAC IMPULSE. THIS WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM TEMPS THROUGH THURS. STRONG
SUPPORT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONG
COLD FRONT TO ADVECT TROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PAC NW
UPPER TROUGH MERGES WITH A STRONG CENTRAL CANADIAN TROUGH.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOK LOW GIVEN LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WITH THE BULK OF LSA SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS LOOK MORE LIKELY BY SUN-MON NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S-60S POSSIBLE BY THEN. MEANWHILE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE-
THUR...ALTHOUGH A WEAK SIGNAL REMAINS OVER SCENTRAL SD TUES WHERE A
LL TROUGH AND MOISTURE ADV ARE PROGGED. DID BUMPS TEMPS UP TUE-THUR
GIVEN WARM-DRY SW FLOW WITH WARMER TEMPS NOW PROGGED IN CONSENSUS
BLENDS. OTHERWISE...COOLER CONDS WILL ARRIVE FRI-SAT...HOW COOL WILL
DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN THE ECMWF. MUCH COOLER CONDS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A COOL FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
IT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. ISOLATED HIGH BASED -TSRA
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
AROUND 40KTS. VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 15 PERCENT AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. A FEW ISOLD TS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY WITH ANY TS. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW AND
REMAINING GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 302101
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
301 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM FAR
EASTERN MT THROUGH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BULK OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST MT INTO NORTHWEST ND NEAR THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL WY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVER NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH SOME 80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST... BREEZY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY.

COLD FRONT WILL EVER SO SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WEAKENING SOME AS IT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL SD MONDAY
MORNING. MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE
OVER FAR NORTHWEST SD THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE EVENING AS CAPE VALUES REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...BECOMING BREEZY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 70 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
FURTHER WEAKEN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR SOUTHERN SD ON MONDAY IN CLOSER VICINITY TO
THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT CHANCES LOOK BELOW 15
PERCENT SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY. SOME COOLER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...70S IN THE
BLACK HILLS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NOAM WILL REMAIN THROUGH
MID WEEK...WITH EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN PER AN ADVECTING STRONG NORTHERN
PAC IMPULSE. THIS WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM TEMPS THROUGH THURS. STRONG
SUPPORT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONG
COLD FRONT TO ADVECT TROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PAC NW
UPPER TROUGH MERGES WITH A STRONG CENTRAL CANADIAN TROUGH.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOK LOW GIVEN LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WITH THE BULK OF LSA SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS LOOK MORE LIKELY BY SUN-MON NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S-60S POSSIBLE BY THEN. MEANWHILE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE-
THUR...ALTHOUGH A WEAK SIGNAL REMAINS OVER SCENTRAL SD TUES WHERE A
LL TROUGH AND MOISTURE ADV ARE PROGGED. DID BUMPS TEMPS UP TUE-THUR
GIVEN WARM-DRY SW FLOW WITH WARMER TEMPS NOW PROGGED IN CONSENSUS
BLENDS. OTHERWISE...COOLER CONDS WILL ARRIVE FRI-SAT...HOW COOL WILL
DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN THE ECMWF. MUCH COOLER CONDS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLD MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN
SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TS ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW
WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 15 PERCENT AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. A FEW ISOLD TS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY WITH ANY TS. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW AND
REMAINING GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 302101
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
301 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM FAR
EASTERN MT THROUGH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BULK OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST MT INTO NORTHWEST ND NEAR THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL WY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVER NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH SOME 80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST... BREEZY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY.

COLD FRONT WILL EVER SO SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WEAKENING SOME AS IT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL SD MONDAY
MORNING. MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE
OVER FAR NORTHWEST SD THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE EVENING AS CAPE VALUES REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...BECOMING BREEZY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 70 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
FURTHER WEAKEN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR SOUTHERN SD ON MONDAY IN CLOSER VICINITY TO
THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT CHANCES LOOK BELOW 15
PERCENT SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY. SOME COOLER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...70S IN THE
BLACK HILLS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NOAM WILL REMAIN THROUGH
MID WEEK...WITH EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN PER AN ADVECTING STRONG NORTHERN
PAC IMPULSE. THIS WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM TEMPS THROUGH THURS. STRONG
SUPPORT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONG
COLD FRONT TO ADVECT TROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PAC NW
UPPER TROUGH MERGES WITH A STRONG CENTRAL CANADIAN TROUGH.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOK LOW GIVEN LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WITH THE BULK OF LSA SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS LOOK MORE LIKELY BY SUN-MON NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S-60S POSSIBLE BY THEN. MEANWHILE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE-
THUR...ALTHOUGH A WEAK SIGNAL REMAINS OVER SCENTRAL SD TUES WHERE A
LL TROUGH AND MOISTURE ADV ARE PROGGED. DID BUMPS TEMPS UP TUE-THUR
GIVEN WARM-DRY SW FLOW WITH WARMER TEMPS NOW PROGGED IN CONSENSUS
BLENDS. OTHERWISE...COOLER CONDS WILL ARRIVE FRI-SAT...HOW COOL WILL
DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN THE ECMWF. MUCH COOLER CONDS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLD MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN
SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TS ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW
WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 15 PERCENT AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. A FEW ISOLD TS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY WITH ANY TS. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW AND
REMAINING GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...JC




000
FXUS63 KABR 302035
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
335 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EASTERN SD
OVERNIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY SOUTH WINDS GOING. WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT
REMAINING OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL SD BY
12Z MONDAY...WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN CWA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HI
RES MODELS DO SHOW JUST A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. COOLER AIR FOLLOWS THIS
FRONT AND CENTRAL SD WILL SEE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT
WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY 850 MB TEMPS BEGIN WARMING
ONCE AGAIN WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COMMON ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMO NORMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS TO
BE WORKING INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
UNTIL SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON`T LOOK ALL THAT GOOD.
BUT...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME MAINTAINS
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT VFR ON SOUTHERLY BREEZES. THERE SHOULD BE A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST OCCURRING SOMETIME IN THE MORNING FOR KPIR AND KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 302035
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
335 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EASTERN SD
OVERNIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY SOUTH WINDS GOING. WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT
REMAINING OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL SD BY
12Z MONDAY...WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN CWA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HI
RES MODELS DO SHOW JUST A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. COOLER AIR FOLLOWS THIS
FRONT AND CENTRAL SD WILL SEE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT
WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY 850 MB TEMPS BEGIN WARMING
ONCE AGAIN WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COMMON ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMO NORMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS TO
BE WORKING INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
UNTIL SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON`T LOOK ALL THAT GOOD.
BUT...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME MAINTAINS
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT VFR ON SOUTHERLY BREEZES. THERE SHOULD BE A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST OCCURRING SOMETIME IN THE MORNING FOR KPIR AND KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN



000
FXUS63 KFSD 302028
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS MARGINALLY MIXED THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD MEAN A LITTLE LESS FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER THAN THE PAST
TWO NIGHTS BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE LATEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA
SO STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A BIT HUMID AND WARM TONIGHT WITH MONDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS
TOO DRY FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MODELS IN THE EXTENDED TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY WARM...MUGGY AND
BREEZY WEEK AHEAD COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND HAVE PERIODIC POPS
SPRINKLED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

THERE IS A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY THAT WORKS THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING.  IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY FORM IN THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
AREA...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS DON/T REALLY ADVERTISE MUCH OF A WAVE.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT AND A 25-35 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  NOT A LOT
OF SPEED CONVERGENCE WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
COULD GET ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA TO SPROUT A FEW STORMS.

HAVE CONTINUED LOW POP MENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

MORE ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH SHORTWAVES STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TRANSLATING EAST.  HAVE
KEPT MID TO UPPER CHANCE RANGE POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL SHEAR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MID LEVEL SUPPORT SEEMS LIMITED THUS
KEEPING SEVERE CHANCES SOMEWHAT LIMITED.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFR CONDITIONS NEAR KSUX QUICKLY ERODING LATE THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT VFR BY 18Z. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD SO WILL RAMP UP WINDS AS WELL. SOME THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR...THE BEST CHANCE NEAR KFSD...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
TAF AS THERE IS STILL A DECENT CHANCE TO REMAIN MARGINALLY MIXED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KFSD 302028
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS MARGINALLY MIXED THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD MEAN A LITTLE LESS FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER THAN THE PAST
TWO NIGHTS BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE LATEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA
SO STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A BIT HUMID AND WARM TONIGHT WITH MONDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS
TOO DRY FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MODELS IN THE EXTENDED TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY WARM...MUGGY AND
BREEZY WEEK AHEAD COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND HAVE PERIODIC POPS
SPRINKLED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

THERE IS A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY THAT WORKS THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING.  IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY FORM IN THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
AREA...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS DON/T REALLY ADVERTISE MUCH OF A WAVE.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT AND A 25-35 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  NOT A LOT
OF SPEED CONVERGENCE WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
COULD GET ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA TO SPROUT A FEW STORMS.

HAVE CONTINUED LOW POP MENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

MORE ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH SHORTWAVES STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TRANSLATING EAST.  HAVE
KEPT MID TO UPPER CHANCE RANGE POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL SHEAR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MID LEVEL SUPPORT SEEMS LIMITED THUS
KEEPING SEVERE CHANCES SOMEWHAT LIMITED.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFR CONDITIONS NEAR KSUX QUICKLY ERODING LATE THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT VFR BY 18Z. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD SO WILL RAMP UP WINDS AS WELL. SOME THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR...THE BEST CHANCE NEAR KFSD...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
TAF AS THERE IS STILL A DECENT CHANCE TO REMAIN MARGINALLY MIXED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KUNR 301728
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1128 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES INTO
THE PAC NW. BREEZY SWRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL
KEEP WARM AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY. SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE
NRN/NERN BLKHLS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS SHOWING STRONG DOWNSLOPING
KEEPING OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE I90
CORRIDOR. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. BREEZY S/SW
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS...POSSIBLY
BREEZIER OVER SCNTRL SD. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTN INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT REACHING THE CWA UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT DRY LOW LEVELS WILL GREATLY HINDER INSTABILITY/QPF.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY NW WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH MON MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN. TEMPS MON WILL BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOW MON NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO
RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL CREATE WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WEAK IMPULSES IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW COULD CREATE A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE LOW-MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION. DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY DECENT SIGNALS AND THE
EXPECTED EXTREMELY ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...CREATING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LEADING TO
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLD MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TS ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW
WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP
TO 15 PERCENT OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH SW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
35 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY LIGHTNING POSSIBLE.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 301728
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1128 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES INTO
THE PAC NW. BREEZY SWRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL
KEEP WARM AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY. SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE
NRN/NERN BLKHLS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS SHOWING STRONG DOWNSLOPING
KEEPING OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE I90
CORRIDOR. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. BREEZY S/SW
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS...POSSIBLY
BREEZIER OVER SCNTRL SD. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTN INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT REACHING THE CWA UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT DRY LOW LEVELS WILL GREATLY HINDER INSTABILITY/QPF.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY NW WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH MON MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN. TEMPS MON WILL BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOW MON NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO
RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL CREATE WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WEAK IMPULSES IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW COULD CREATE A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE LOW-MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION. DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY DECENT SIGNALS AND THE
EXPECTED EXTREMELY ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...CREATING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LEADING TO
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLD MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TS ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW
WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP
TO 15 PERCENT OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH SW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
35 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY LIGHTNING POSSIBLE.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 301728
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1128 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES INTO
THE PAC NW. BREEZY SWRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL
KEEP WARM AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY. SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE
NRN/NERN BLKHLS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS SHOWING STRONG DOWNSLOPING
KEEPING OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE I90
CORRIDOR. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. BREEZY S/SW
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS...POSSIBLY
BREEZIER OVER SCNTRL SD. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTN INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT REACHING THE CWA UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT DRY LOW LEVELS WILL GREATLY HINDER INSTABILITY/QPF.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY NW WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH MON MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN. TEMPS MON WILL BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOW MON NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO
RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL CREATE WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WEAK IMPULSES IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW COULD CREATE A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE LOW-MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION. DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY DECENT SIGNALS AND THE
EXPECTED EXTREMELY ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...CREATING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LEADING TO
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLD MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TS ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW
WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP
TO 15 PERCENT OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH SW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
35 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY LIGHTNING POSSIBLE.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 301728
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1128 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES INTO
THE PAC NW. BREEZY SWRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL
KEEP WARM AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY. SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE
NRN/NERN BLKHLS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS SHOWING STRONG DOWNSLOPING
KEEPING OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE I90
CORRIDOR. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. BREEZY S/SW
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS...POSSIBLY
BREEZIER OVER SCNTRL SD. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTN INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT REACHING THE CWA UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT DRY LOW LEVELS WILL GREATLY HINDER INSTABILITY/QPF.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY NW WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH MON MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN. TEMPS MON WILL BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOW MON NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO
RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL CREATE WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WEAK IMPULSES IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW COULD CREATE A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE LOW-MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION. DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY DECENT SIGNALS AND THE
EXPECTED EXTREMELY ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...CREATING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LEADING TO
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLD MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TS ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW
WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP
TO 15 PERCENT OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH SW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
35 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY LIGHTNING POSSIBLE.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 301728
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1128 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES INTO
THE PAC NW. BREEZY SWRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL
KEEP WARM AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY. SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE
NRN/NERN BLKHLS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS SHOWING STRONG DOWNSLOPING
KEEPING OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE I90
CORRIDOR. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. BREEZY S/SW
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS...POSSIBLY
BREEZIER OVER SCNTRL SD. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTN INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT REACHING THE CWA UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT DRY LOW LEVELS WILL GREATLY HINDER INSTABILITY/QPF.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY NW WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH MON MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN. TEMPS MON WILL BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOW MON NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO
RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL CREATE WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WEAK IMPULSES IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW COULD CREATE A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE LOW-MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION. DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY DECENT SIGNALS AND THE
EXPECTED EXTREMELY ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...CREATING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LEADING TO
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLD MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TS ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW
WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP
TO 15 PERCENT OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH SW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
35 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY LIGHTNING POSSIBLE.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...13




000
FXUS63 KABR 301727 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S EAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S OVER CENTRAL SD. SMOKE
THICKNESS LESS OF A CONCERN TODAY...AND BETTER MIXING AND WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW US TO WARM A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT
WE SAW ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT VFR ON SOUTHERLY BREEZES. THERE SHOULD BE A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST OCCURRING SOMETIME IN THE MORNING FOR KPIR AND KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN



000
FXUS63 KABR 301727 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S EAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S OVER CENTRAL SD. SMOKE
THICKNESS LESS OF A CONCERN TODAY...AND BETTER MIXING AND WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW US TO WARM A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT
WE SAW ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT VFR ON SOUTHERLY BREEZES. THERE SHOULD BE A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST OCCURRING SOMETIME IN THE MORNING FOR KPIR AND KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN



000
FXUS63 KABR 301727 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S EAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S OVER CENTRAL SD. SMOKE
THICKNESS LESS OF A CONCERN TODAY...AND BETTER MIXING AND WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW US TO WARM A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT
WE SAW ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT VFR ON SOUTHERLY BREEZES. THERE SHOULD BE A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST OCCURRING SOMETIME IN THE MORNING FOR KPIR AND KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN



000
FXUS63 KABR 301727 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S EAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S OVER CENTRAL SD. SMOKE
THICKNESS LESS OF A CONCERN TODAY...AND BETTER MIXING AND WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW US TO WARM A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT
WE SAW ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT VFR ON SOUTHERLY BREEZES. THERE SHOULD BE A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST OCCURRING SOMETIME IN THE MORNING FOR KPIR AND KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN



000
FXUS63 KABR 301727 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S EAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S OVER CENTRAL SD. SMOKE
THICKNESS LESS OF A CONCERN TODAY...AND BETTER MIXING AND WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW US TO WARM A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT
WE SAW ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT VFR ON SOUTHERLY BREEZES. THERE SHOULD BE A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST OCCURRING SOMETIME IN THE MORNING FOR KPIR AND KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN



000
FXUS63 KABR 301727 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S EAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S OVER CENTRAL SD. SMOKE
THICKNESS LESS OF A CONCERN TODAY...AND BETTER MIXING AND WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW US TO WARM A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT
WE SAW ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT VFR ON SOUTHERLY BREEZES. THERE SHOULD BE A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST OCCURRING SOMETIME IN THE MORNING FOR KPIR AND KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 301709
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AGAIN SEEING STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH MODELS DIFFERING JUST A BIT ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE...THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR
IT TO DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL HAVE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZY SKIES. IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY...WITH COOLEST READINGS THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA WHERE STRATUS MAY PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 80. TO THE WEST...HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT TONIGHT THROUGH OUR NORTH AND
WEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. SOME MODELS...WITH THE NAM THE MOST
PRONOUNCED...SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THINKING THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS RECENT NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFR CONDITIONS NEAR KSUX QUICKLY ERODING LATE THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT VFR BY 18Z. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD SO WILL RAMP UP WINDS AS WELL. SOME THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR...THE BEST CHANCE NEAR KFSD...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
TAF AS THERE IS STILL A DECENT CHANCE TO REMAIN MARGINALLY MIXED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 301709
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AGAIN SEEING STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH MODELS DIFFERING JUST A BIT ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE...THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR
IT TO DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL HAVE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZY SKIES. IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY...WITH COOLEST READINGS THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA WHERE STRATUS MAY PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 80. TO THE WEST...HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT TONIGHT THROUGH OUR NORTH AND
WEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. SOME MODELS...WITH THE NAM THE MOST
PRONOUNCED...SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THINKING THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS RECENT NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFR CONDITIONS NEAR KSUX QUICKLY ERODING LATE THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT VFR BY 18Z. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD SO WILL RAMP UP WINDS AS WELL. SOME THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR...THE BEST CHANCE NEAR KFSD...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
TAF AS THERE IS STILL A DECENT CHANCE TO REMAIN MARGINALLY MIXED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KFSD 301709
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AGAIN SEEING STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH MODELS DIFFERING JUST A BIT ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE...THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR
IT TO DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL HAVE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZY SKIES. IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY...WITH COOLEST READINGS THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA WHERE STRATUS MAY PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 80. TO THE WEST...HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT TONIGHT THROUGH OUR NORTH AND
WEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. SOME MODELS...WITH THE NAM THE MOST
PRONOUNCED...SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THINKING THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS RECENT NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFR CONDITIONS NEAR KSUX QUICKLY ERODING LATE THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT VFR BY 18Z. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD SO WILL RAMP UP WINDS AS WELL. SOME THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR...THE BEST CHANCE NEAR KFSD...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
TAF AS THERE IS STILL A DECENT CHANCE TO REMAIN MARGINALLY MIXED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KABR 301523 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1023 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S EAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S OVER CENTRAL SD. SMOKE
THICKNESS LESS OF A CONCERN TODAY...AND BETTER MIXING AND WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW US TO WARM A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT
WE SAW ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...DIMINISHING SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 301523 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1023 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S EAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S OVER CENTRAL SD. SMOKE
THICKNESS LESS OF A CONCERN TODAY...AND BETTER MIXING AND WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW US TO WARM A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT
WE SAW ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...DIMINISHING SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 301523 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1023 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S EAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S OVER CENTRAL SD. SMOKE
THICKNESS LESS OF A CONCERN TODAY...AND BETTER MIXING AND WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW US TO WARM A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT
WE SAW ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...DIMINISHING SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 301523 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1023 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S EAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S OVER CENTRAL SD. SMOKE
THICKNESS LESS OF A CONCERN TODAY...AND BETTER MIXING AND WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW US TO WARM A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT
WE SAW ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...DIMINISHING SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 301127 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...DIMINISHING SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KABR 301127 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...DIMINISHING SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 301127 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...DIMINISHING SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KFSD 301120
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AGAIN SEEING STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH MODELS DIFFERING JUST A BIT ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE...THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR
IT TO DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL HAVE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZY SKIES. IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY...WITH COOLEST READINGS THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA WHERE STRATUS MAY PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 80. TO THE WEST...HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT TONIGHT THROUGH OUR NORTH AND
WEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. SOME MODELS...WITH THE NAM THE MOST
PRONOUNCED...SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THINKING THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS RECENT NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES IN AREAS FROM THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD WILL IMPROVE AFTER 15Z.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 301120
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AGAIN SEEING STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH MODELS DIFFERING JUST A BIT ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE...THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR
IT TO DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL HAVE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZY SKIES. IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY...WITH COOLEST READINGS THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA WHERE STRATUS MAY PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 80. TO THE WEST...HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT TONIGHT THROUGH OUR NORTH AND
WEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. SOME MODELS...WITH THE NAM THE MOST
PRONOUNCED...SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THINKING THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS RECENT NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES IN AREAS FROM THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD WILL IMPROVE AFTER 15Z.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM



000
FXUS63 KFSD 301120
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AGAIN SEEING STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH MODELS DIFFERING JUST A BIT ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE...THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR
IT TO DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL HAVE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZY SKIES. IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY...WITH COOLEST READINGS THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA WHERE STRATUS MAY PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 80. TO THE WEST...HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT TONIGHT THROUGH OUR NORTH AND
WEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. SOME MODELS...WITH THE NAM THE MOST
PRONOUNCED...SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THINKING THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS RECENT NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES IN AREAS FROM THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD WILL IMPROVE AFTER 15Z.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM



000
FXUS63 KFSD 301120
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AGAIN SEEING STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH MODELS DIFFERING JUST A BIT ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE...THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR
IT TO DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL HAVE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZY SKIES. IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY...WITH COOLEST READINGS THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA WHERE STRATUS MAY PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 80. TO THE WEST...HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT TONIGHT THROUGH OUR NORTH AND
WEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. SOME MODELS...WITH THE NAM THE MOST
PRONOUNCED...SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THINKING THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS RECENT NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES IN AREAS FROM THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD WILL IMPROVE AFTER 15Z.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM



000
FXUS63 KFSD 301120
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AGAIN SEEING STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH MODELS DIFFERING JUST A BIT ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE...THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR
IT TO DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL HAVE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZY SKIES. IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY...WITH COOLEST READINGS THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA WHERE STRATUS MAY PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 80. TO THE WEST...HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT TONIGHT THROUGH OUR NORTH AND
WEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. SOME MODELS...WITH THE NAM THE MOST
PRONOUNCED...SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THINKING THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS RECENT NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES IN AREAS FROM THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD WILL IMPROVE AFTER 15Z.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM



000
FXUS63 KFSD 301120
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AGAIN SEEING STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH MODELS DIFFERING JUST A BIT ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE...THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR
IT TO DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL HAVE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZY SKIES. IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY...WITH COOLEST READINGS THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA WHERE STRATUS MAY PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 80. TO THE WEST...HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT TONIGHT THROUGH OUR NORTH AND
WEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. SOME MODELS...WITH THE NAM THE MOST
PRONOUNCED...SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THINKING THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS RECENT NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES IN AREAS FROM THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD WILL IMPROVE AFTER 15Z.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KUNR 300952
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
352 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES INTO
THE PAC NW. BREEZY SWRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL
KEEP WARM AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY. SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE
NRN/NERN BLKHLS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS SHOWING STRONG DOWNSLOPING
KEEPING OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE I90
CORRIDOR. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. BREEZY S/SW
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS...POSSIBLY
BREEZIER OVER SCNTRL SD. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTN INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT REACHING THE CWA UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT DRY LOW LEVELS WILL GREATLY HINDER INSTABILITY/QPF.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY NW WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH MON MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN. TEMPS MON WILL BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOW MON NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO
RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL CREATE WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WEAK IMPULSES IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW COULD CREATE A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE LOW-MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION. DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY DECENT SIGNALS AND THE
EXPECTED EXTREMELY ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...CREATING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LEADING TO
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLD MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP
TO 15 PERCENT OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH SW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
35 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY LIGHTNING POSSIBLE.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10
FIRE WEATHER...13




000
FXUS63 KFSD 300905
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AGAIN SEEING STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH MODELS DIFFERING JUST A BIT ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE...THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR
IT TO DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL HAVE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZY SKIES. IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY...WITH COOLEST READINGS THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA WHERE STRATUS MAY PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 80. TO THE WEST...HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT TONIGHT THROUGH OUR NORTH AND
WEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. SOME MODELS...WITH THE NAM THE MOST
PRONOUNCED...SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THINKING THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS RECENT NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHWEST IA ALONG THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
ALL NIGHT. THEREFORE AM EXPECTING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR MANY AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
29 CORRIDOR. THE STRATUS COULD FIRST AFFECT KSUX SHORTLY AFTER
06Z. KFSD IS QUITE A CHALLENGE...IN THAT THEY COULD BE ON THE
EDGE OF THE NORTHWARD BUILDING STRATUS LATE TONIGHT. FOR THAT
REASON...WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO IFR GROUP FOR VISIBILITY AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KFSD 300905
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AGAIN SEEING STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH MODELS DIFFERING JUST A BIT ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE...THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR
IT TO DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL HAVE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZY SKIES. IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY...WITH COOLEST READINGS THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA WHERE STRATUS MAY PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 80. TO THE WEST...HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT TONIGHT THROUGH OUR NORTH AND
WEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. SOME MODELS...WITH THE NAM THE MOST
PRONOUNCED...SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THINKING THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS RECENT NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHWEST IA ALONG THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
ALL NIGHT. THEREFORE AM EXPECTING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR MANY AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
29 CORRIDOR. THE STRATUS COULD FIRST AFFECT KSUX SHORTLY AFTER
06Z. KFSD IS QUITE A CHALLENGE...IN THAT THEY COULD BE ON THE
EDGE OF THE NORTHWARD BUILDING STRATUS LATE TONIGHT. FOR THAT
REASON...WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO IFR GROUP FOR VISIBILITY AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KFSD 300905
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AGAIN SEEING STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH MODELS DIFFERING JUST A BIT ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE...THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR
IT TO DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL HAVE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZY SKIES. IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY...WITH COOLEST READINGS THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA WHERE STRATUS MAY PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 80. TO THE WEST...HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT TONIGHT THROUGH OUR NORTH AND
WEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. SOME MODELS...WITH THE NAM THE MOST
PRONOUNCED...SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THINKING THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS RECENT NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHWEST IA ALONG THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
ALL NIGHT. THEREFORE AM EXPECTING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR MANY AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
29 CORRIDOR. THE STRATUS COULD FIRST AFFECT KSUX SHORTLY AFTER
06Z. KFSD IS QUITE A CHALLENGE...IN THAT THEY COULD BE ON THE
EDGE OF THE NORTHWARD BUILDING STRATUS LATE TONIGHT. FOR THAT
REASON...WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO IFR GROUP FOR VISIBILITY AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KFSD 300905
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AGAIN SEEING STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH MODELS DIFFERING JUST A BIT ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE...THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR
IT TO DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL HAVE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZY SKIES. IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY...WITH COOLEST READINGS THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA WHERE STRATUS MAY PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 80. TO THE WEST...HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT TONIGHT THROUGH OUR NORTH AND
WEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. SOME MODELS...WITH THE NAM THE MOST
PRONOUNCED...SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THINKING THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS RECENT NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHWEST IA ALONG THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
ALL NIGHT. THEREFORE AM EXPECTING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR MANY AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
29 CORRIDOR. THE STRATUS COULD FIRST AFFECT KSUX SHORTLY AFTER
06Z. KFSD IS QUITE A CHALLENGE...IN THAT THEY COULD BE ON THE
EDGE OF THE NORTHWARD BUILDING STRATUS LATE TONIGHT. FOR THAT
REASON...WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO IFR GROUP FOR VISIBILITY AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KFSD 300905
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AGAIN SEEING STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH MODELS DIFFERING JUST A BIT ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE...THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR
IT TO DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL HAVE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZY SKIES. IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY...WITH COOLEST READINGS THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA WHERE STRATUS MAY PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 80. TO THE WEST...HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT TONIGHT THROUGH OUR NORTH AND
WEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. SOME MODELS...WITH THE NAM THE MOST
PRONOUNCED...SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THINKING THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS RECENT NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHWEST IA ALONG THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
ALL NIGHT. THEREFORE AM EXPECTING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR MANY AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
29 CORRIDOR. THE STRATUS COULD FIRST AFFECT KSUX SHORTLY AFTER
06Z. KFSD IS QUITE A CHALLENGE...IN THAT THEY COULD BE ON THE
EDGE OF THE NORTHWARD BUILDING STRATUS LATE TONIGHT. FOR THAT
REASON...WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO IFR GROUP FOR VISIBILITY AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KABR 300854
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 300854
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KABR 300854
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 300854
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 300854
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 300854
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 300528 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. THE SKY WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH TOASTY 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20S CELSIUS. AT THE SFC...A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY. WITH BETTER MIXING TOMORROW AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...WILL BE ADDING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES...BUT FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED NONETHELESS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. STILL APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES PROGGED FOR THE OUT PERIODS.
THE ONE MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INDUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE HEADLINE IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD
READ..."UNSEASONABLY HOT FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER".


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 300528 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. THE SKY WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH TOASTY 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20S CELSIUS. AT THE SFC...A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY. WITH BETTER MIXING TOMORROW AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...WILL BE ADDING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES...BUT FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED NONETHELESS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. STILL APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES PROGGED FOR THE OUT PERIODS.
THE ONE MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INDUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE HEADLINE IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD
READ..."UNSEASONABLY HOT FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER".


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KABR 300528 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. THE SKY WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH TOASTY 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20S CELSIUS. AT THE SFC...A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY. WITH BETTER MIXING TOMORROW AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...WILL BE ADDING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES...BUT FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED NONETHELESS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. STILL APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES PROGGED FOR THE OUT PERIODS.
THE ONE MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INDUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE HEADLINE IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD
READ..."UNSEASONABLY HOT FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER".


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KABR 300528 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. THE SKY WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH TOASTY 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20S CELSIUS. AT THE SFC...A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY. WITH BETTER MIXING TOMORROW AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...WILL BE ADDING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES...BUT FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED NONETHELESS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. STILL APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES PROGGED FOR THE OUT PERIODS.
THE ONE MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INDUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE HEADLINE IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD
READ..."UNSEASONABLY HOT FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER".


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KABR 300528 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. THE SKY WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH TOASTY 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20S CELSIUS. AT THE SFC...A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY. WITH BETTER MIXING TOMORROW AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...WILL BE ADDING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES...BUT FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED NONETHELESS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. STILL APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES PROGGED FOR THE OUT PERIODS.
THE ONE MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INDUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE HEADLINE IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD
READ..."UNSEASONABLY HOT FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER".


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KABR 300526
AFDABR

FXUS63 KABR 292343 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
643 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. THE SKY WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH TOASTY 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20S CELSIUS. AT THE SFC...A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY. WITH BETTER MIXING TOMORROW AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...WILL BE ADDING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES...BUT FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED NONETHELESS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. STILL APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES PROGGED FOR THE OUT PERIODS.
THE ONE MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INDUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE HEADLINE IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD
READ..."UNSEASONABLY HOT FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER".

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE



000
FXUS63 KABR 300526
AFDABR

FXUS63 KABR 292343 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
643 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. THE SKY WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH TOASTY 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20S CELSIUS. AT THE SFC...A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY. WITH BETTER MIXING TOMORROW AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...WILL BE ADDING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES...BUT FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED NONETHELESS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. STILL APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES PROGGED FOR THE OUT PERIODS.
THE ONE MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INDUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE HEADLINE IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD
READ..."UNSEASONABLY HOT FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER".

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE



000
FXUS63 KABR 300526
AFDABR

FXUS63 KABR 292343 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
643 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. THE SKY WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH TOASTY 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20S CELSIUS. AT THE SFC...A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY. WITH BETTER MIXING TOMORROW AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...WILL BE ADDING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES...BUT FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED NONETHELESS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. STILL APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES PROGGED FOR THE OUT PERIODS.
THE ONE MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INDUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE HEADLINE IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD
READ..."UNSEASONABLY HOT FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER".

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 300525
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1125 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A
SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST...BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY. HAZY
SUNSHINE CONTINUES THROUGH THE SMOKE...THOUGH CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOT
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE
USUAL AREAS FROM NORTHEAST WY THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY TO GET ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE
JET.

SUNDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE PLAINS AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD DURING THE DAY. EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST WY LATE IN THE DAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL SD
OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS
COULD GET GUSTY WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY WARM CONDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW PERSISTS. THE WESTERN NOAM
UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE MERGES WITH IT...LEADING TOWARD BREAKDOWN OF THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE. IN THE MEANTIME...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...
SUPPORTING COOLER BUT STILL SEASONAL TEMPS IN A CAA REGIME MONDAY.
CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE WILL RE-SURGE TUE-THUR...WITH VERY WARM CONDS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION.
WEAK SW FLOW IMPULSES COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TS IN THE
TUE-WED PERIOD...ESP WITH ANY CONCENTRATED POS THETA-E ADV.
HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SIGNALS PRECLUDE ANY POP
MENTION. NW PAC UPPER TROUGH WILL BIAS EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH COOLER WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON THE SD PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS
A LOW LEVEL JET FROM 30-40KTS OCCURS. ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE
OVER THE FAR WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15
PERCENT OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SW WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUN.
PARTIALLY MIXED CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN PRESSURE
FALLS...WITH SW WINDS CONTINUING UNDER POOR RH RECOVERY. WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THIS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 300525
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1125 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A
SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST...BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY. HAZY
SUNSHINE CONTINUES THROUGH THE SMOKE...THOUGH CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOT
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE
USUAL AREAS FROM NORTHEAST WY THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY TO GET ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE
JET.

SUNDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE PLAINS AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD DURING THE DAY. EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST WY LATE IN THE DAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL SD
OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS
COULD GET GUSTY WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY WARM CONDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW PERSISTS. THE WESTERN NOAM
UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE MERGES WITH IT...LEADING TOWARD BREAKDOWN OF THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE. IN THE MEANTIME...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...
SUPPORTING COOLER BUT STILL SEASONAL TEMPS IN A CAA REGIME MONDAY.
CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE WILL RE-SURGE TUE-THUR...WITH VERY WARM CONDS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION.
WEAK SW FLOW IMPULSES COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TS IN THE
TUE-WED PERIOD...ESP WITH ANY CONCENTRATED POS THETA-E ADV.
HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SIGNALS PRECLUDE ANY POP
MENTION. NW PAC UPPER TROUGH WILL BIAS EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH COOLER WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON THE SD PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS
A LOW LEVEL JET FROM 30-40KTS OCCURS. ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE
OVER THE FAR WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15
PERCENT OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SW WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUN.
PARTIALLY MIXED CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN PRESSURE
FALLS...WITH SW WINDS CONTINUING UNDER POOR RH RECOVERY. WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THIS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 300525
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1125 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A
SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST...BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY. HAZY
SUNSHINE CONTINUES THROUGH THE SMOKE...THOUGH CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOT
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE
USUAL AREAS FROM NORTHEAST WY THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY TO GET ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE
JET.

SUNDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE PLAINS AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD DURING THE DAY. EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST WY LATE IN THE DAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL SD
OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS
COULD GET GUSTY WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY WARM CONDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW PERSISTS. THE WESTERN NOAM
UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE MERGES WITH IT...LEADING TOWARD BREAKDOWN OF THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE. IN THE MEANTIME...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...
SUPPORTING COOLER BUT STILL SEASONAL TEMPS IN A CAA REGIME MONDAY.
CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE WILL RE-SURGE TUE-THUR...WITH VERY WARM CONDS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION.
WEAK SW FLOW IMPULSES COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TS IN THE
TUE-WED PERIOD...ESP WITH ANY CONCENTRATED POS THETA-E ADV.
HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SIGNALS PRECLUDE ANY POP
MENTION. NW PAC UPPER TROUGH WILL BIAS EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH COOLER WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON THE SD PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS
A LOW LEVEL JET FROM 30-40KTS OCCURS. ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE
OVER THE FAR WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15
PERCENT OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SW WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUN.
PARTIALLY MIXED CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN PRESSURE
FALLS...WITH SW WINDS CONTINUING UNDER POOR RH RECOVERY. WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THIS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 300525
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1125 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A
SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST...BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY. HAZY
SUNSHINE CONTINUES THROUGH THE SMOKE...THOUGH CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOT
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE
USUAL AREAS FROM NORTHEAST WY THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY TO GET ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE
JET.

SUNDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE PLAINS AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD DURING THE DAY. EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST WY LATE IN THE DAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL SD
OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS
COULD GET GUSTY WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY WARM CONDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW PERSISTS. THE WESTERN NOAM
UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE MERGES WITH IT...LEADING TOWARD BREAKDOWN OF THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE. IN THE MEANTIME...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...
SUPPORTING COOLER BUT STILL SEASONAL TEMPS IN A CAA REGIME MONDAY.
CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE WILL RE-SURGE TUE-THUR...WITH VERY WARM CONDS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION.
WEAK SW FLOW IMPULSES COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TS IN THE
TUE-WED PERIOD...ESP WITH ANY CONCENTRATED POS THETA-E ADV.
HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SIGNALS PRECLUDE ANY POP
MENTION. NW PAC UPPER TROUGH WILL BIAS EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH COOLER WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON THE SD PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS
A LOW LEVEL JET FROM 30-40KTS OCCURS. ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE
OVER THE FAR WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15
PERCENT OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SW WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUN.
PARTIALLY MIXED CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN PRESSURE
FALLS...WITH SW WINDS CONTINUING UNDER POOR RH RECOVERY. WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THIS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 300525
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1125 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A
SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST...BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY. HAZY
SUNSHINE CONTINUES THROUGH THE SMOKE...THOUGH CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOT
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE
USUAL AREAS FROM NORTHEAST WY THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY TO GET ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE
JET.

SUNDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE PLAINS AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD DURING THE DAY. EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST WY LATE IN THE DAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL SD
OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS
COULD GET GUSTY WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY WARM CONDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW PERSISTS. THE WESTERN NOAM
UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE MERGES WITH IT...LEADING TOWARD BREAKDOWN OF THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE. IN THE MEANTIME...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...
SUPPORTING COOLER BUT STILL SEASONAL TEMPS IN A CAA REGIME MONDAY.
CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE WILL RE-SURGE TUE-THUR...WITH VERY WARM CONDS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION.
WEAK SW FLOW IMPULSES COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TS IN THE
TUE-WED PERIOD...ESP WITH ANY CONCENTRATED POS THETA-E ADV.
HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SIGNALS PRECLUDE ANY POP
MENTION. NW PAC UPPER TROUGH WILL BIAS EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH COOLER WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON THE SD PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS
A LOW LEVEL JET FROM 30-40KTS OCCURS. ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE
OVER THE FAR WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15
PERCENT OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SW WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUN.
PARTIALLY MIXED CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN PRESSURE
FALLS...WITH SW WINDS CONTINUING UNDER POOR RH RECOVERY. WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THIS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 300525
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1125 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A
SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST...BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY. HAZY
SUNSHINE CONTINUES THROUGH THE SMOKE...THOUGH CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOT
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE
USUAL AREAS FROM NORTHEAST WY THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY TO GET ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE
JET.

SUNDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE PLAINS AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD DURING THE DAY. EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST WY LATE IN THE DAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL SD
OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS
COULD GET GUSTY WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY WARM CONDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW PERSISTS. THE WESTERN NOAM
UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE MERGES WITH IT...LEADING TOWARD BREAKDOWN OF THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE. IN THE MEANTIME...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...
SUPPORTING COOLER BUT STILL SEASONAL TEMPS IN A CAA REGIME MONDAY.
CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE WILL RE-SURGE TUE-THUR...WITH VERY WARM CONDS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION.
WEAK SW FLOW IMPULSES COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TS IN THE
TUE-WED PERIOD...ESP WITH ANY CONCENTRATED POS THETA-E ADV.
HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SIGNALS PRECLUDE ANY POP
MENTION. NW PAC UPPER TROUGH WILL BIAS EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH COOLER WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON THE SD PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS
A LOW LEVEL JET FROM 30-40KTS OCCURS. ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE
OVER THE FAR WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15
PERCENT OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SW WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUN.
PARTIALLY MIXED CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN PRESSURE
FALLS...WITH SW WINDS CONTINUING UNDER POOR RH RECOVERY. WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THIS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...JC



000
FXUS63 KFSD 300341
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1041 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

INCREASED THE SKY COVER TONIGHT WHERE WE HAVE THE FOG ALREADY
MENTIONED. IN FACT THE CURRENT STRATUS IS BEING ADVECTED BACK INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA ALREADY AROUND THE STORM LAKE AND CHEROKEE IOWA
AREAS...USHERED IN BY THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OFF THE
SURFACE. THEREFORE BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A MESS OF FOG AND STRATUS FOR MANY AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I 29 CORRIDOR. THIS IS ALSO STRONGLY SUGGESTED BY
THE LATEST SREF LOW CLOUD PROBABILITIES...AS WELL AS THE RAP AND
HRRR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA...BUT STILL REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA. WITH THE WET
GROUND...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUSPECT THAT FOG AND
THIN LOW STRATUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA SO WILL
INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR SHORT LIVED AND SPOTTY DENSE FOG. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH 15Z AND SHOULD QUICKLY
ERODE MID TO LATE MORNING SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH A FEW MID 60S IN
CENTRAL SD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...BECOMING FAIRLY WINDY IN
CENTRAL SD DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S
IN CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 80 AROUND STORM LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE OVERALL FAIRLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG
DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.  ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY AS THE CAPPING INVERSION IS LESS. GFS SHOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES.  FOR NOW...LEFT POPS FOCUSED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE.  HAVE THROWN OUT GFS SOLUTION...AS IT IS WAY
TO WARM ALOFT COMPARED TO OTHER SOLUTIONS.  HAVE RAISED FORECAST
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHWEST IA ALONG THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
ALL NIGHT. THEREFORE AM EXPECTING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR MANY AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
29 CORRIDOR. THE STRATUS COULD FIRST AFFECT KSUX SHORTLY AFTER
06Z. KFSD IS QUITE A CHALLENGE...IN THAT THEY COULD BE ON THE
EDGE OF THE NORTHWARD BUILDING STRATUS LATE TONIGHT. FOR THAT
REASON...WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO IFR GROUP FOR VISIBILITY AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 300154
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
854 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

INCREASED THE SKY COVER TONIGHT WHERE WE HAVE THE FOG ALREADY
MENTIONED. IN FACT THE CURRENT STRATUS IS BEING ADVECTED BACK INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA ALREADY AROUND THE STORM LAKE AND CHEROKEE IOWA
AREAS...USHERED IN BY THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OFF THE
SURFACE. THEREFORE BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A MESS OF FOG AND STRATUS FOR MANY AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I 29 CORRIDOR. THIS IS ALSO STRONGLY SUGGESTED BY
THE LATEST SREF LOW CLOUD PROBABILITIES...AS WELL AS THE RAP AND
HRRR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA...BUT STILL REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA. WITH THE WET
GROUND...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUSPECT THAT FOG AND
THIN LOW STRATUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA SO WILL
INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR SHORT LIVED AND SPOTTY DENSE FOG. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH 15Z AND SHOULD QUICKLY
ERODE MID TO LATE MORNING SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH A FEW MID 60S IN
CENTRAL SD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...BECOMING FAIRLY WINDY IN
CENTRAL SD DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S
IN CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 80 AROUND STORM LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE OVERALL FAIRLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG
DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.  ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY AS THE CAPPING INVERSION IS LESS. GFS SHOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES.  FOR NOW...LEFT POPS FOCUSED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE.  HAVE THROWN OUT GFS SOLUTION...AS IT IS WAY
TO WARM ALOFT COMPARED TO OTHER SOLUTIONS.  HAVE RAISED FORECAST
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHICH
SHOULD BE THE TREND THROUGH 20Z. SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY PUSHES
EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...BECOMING A BIT BREEZY
IN CENTRAL SD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL STILL SEE SOME WEAK FLOW AND A DECENT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER THREAT FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX FROM ABOUT 8Z THROUGH 15Z.
KFSD WILL ALSO SEE THE THREAT BUT WILL BE ON THE EDGE AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY IFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 300154
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
854 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

INCREASED THE SKY COVER TONIGHT WHERE WE HAVE THE FOG ALREADY
MENTIONED. IN FACT THE CURRENT STRATUS IS BEING ADVECTED BACK INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA ALREADY AROUND THE STORM LAKE AND CHEROKEE IOWA
AREAS...USHERED IN BY THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OFF THE
SURFACE. THEREFORE BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A MESS OF FOG AND STRATUS FOR MANY AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I 29 CORRIDOR. THIS IS ALSO STRONGLY SUGGESTED BY
THE LATEST SREF LOW CLOUD PROBABILITIES...AS WELL AS THE RAP AND
HRRR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA...BUT STILL REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA. WITH THE WET
GROUND...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUSPECT THAT FOG AND
THIN LOW STRATUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA SO WILL
INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR SHORT LIVED AND SPOTTY DENSE FOG. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH 15Z AND SHOULD QUICKLY
ERODE MID TO LATE MORNING SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH A FEW MID 60S IN
CENTRAL SD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...BECOMING FAIRLY WINDY IN
CENTRAL SD DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S
IN CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 80 AROUND STORM LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE OVERALL FAIRLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG
DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.  ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY AS THE CAPPING INVERSION IS LESS. GFS SHOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES.  FOR NOW...LEFT POPS FOCUSED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE.  HAVE THROWN OUT GFS SOLUTION...AS IT IS WAY
TO WARM ALOFT COMPARED TO OTHER SOLUTIONS.  HAVE RAISED FORECAST
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHICH
SHOULD BE THE TREND THROUGH 20Z. SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY PUSHES
EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...BECOMING A BIT BREEZY
IN CENTRAL SD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL STILL SEE SOME WEAK FLOW AND A DECENT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER THREAT FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX FROM ABOUT 8Z THROUGH 15Z.
KFSD WILL ALSO SEE THE THREAT BUT WILL BE ON THE EDGE AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY IFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 300154
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
854 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

INCREASED THE SKY COVER TONIGHT WHERE WE HAVE THE FOG ALREADY
MENTIONED. IN FACT THE CURRENT STRATUS IS BEING ADVECTED BACK INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA ALREADY AROUND THE STORM LAKE AND CHEROKEE IOWA
AREAS...USHERED IN BY THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OFF THE
SURFACE. THEREFORE BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A MESS OF FOG AND STRATUS FOR MANY AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I 29 CORRIDOR. THIS IS ALSO STRONGLY SUGGESTED BY
THE LATEST SREF LOW CLOUD PROBABILITIES...AS WELL AS THE RAP AND
HRRR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA...BUT STILL REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA. WITH THE WET
GROUND...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUSPECT THAT FOG AND
THIN LOW STRATUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA SO WILL
INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR SHORT LIVED AND SPOTTY DENSE FOG. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH 15Z AND SHOULD QUICKLY
ERODE MID TO LATE MORNING SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH A FEW MID 60S IN
CENTRAL SD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...BECOMING FAIRLY WINDY IN
CENTRAL SD DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S
IN CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 80 AROUND STORM LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE OVERALL FAIRLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG
DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.  ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY AS THE CAPPING INVERSION IS LESS. GFS SHOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES.  FOR NOW...LEFT POPS FOCUSED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE.  HAVE THROWN OUT GFS SOLUTION...AS IT IS WAY
TO WARM ALOFT COMPARED TO OTHER SOLUTIONS.  HAVE RAISED FORECAST
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHICH
SHOULD BE THE TREND THROUGH 20Z. SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY PUSHES
EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...BECOMING A BIT BREEZY
IN CENTRAL SD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL STILL SEE SOME WEAK FLOW AND A DECENT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER THREAT FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX FROM ABOUT 8Z THROUGH 15Z.
KFSD WILL ALSO SEE THE THREAT BUT WILL BE ON THE EDGE AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY IFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 300154
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
854 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

INCREASED THE SKY COVER TONIGHT WHERE WE HAVE THE FOG ALREADY
MENTIONED. IN FACT THE CURRENT STRATUS IS BEING ADVECTED BACK INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA ALREADY AROUND THE STORM LAKE AND CHEROKEE IOWA
AREAS...USHERED IN BY THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OFF THE
SURFACE. THEREFORE BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A MESS OF FOG AND STRATUS FOR MANY AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I 29 CORRIDOR. THIS IS ALSO STRONGLY SUGGESTED BY
THE LATEST SREF LOW CLOUD PROBABILITIES...AS WELL AS THE RAP AND
HRRR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA...BUT STILL REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA. WITH THE WET
GROUND...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUSPECT THAT FOG AND
THIN LOW STRATUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA SO WILL
INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR SHORT LIVED AND SPOTTY DENSE FOG. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH 15Z AND SHOULD QUICKLY
ERODE MID TO LATE MORNING SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH A FEW MID 60S IN
CENTRAL SD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...BECOMING FAIRLY WINDY IN
CENTRAL SD DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S
IN CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 80 AROUND STORM LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE OVERALL FAIRLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG
DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.  ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY AS THE CAPPING INVERSION IS LESS. GFS SHOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES.  FOR NOW...LEFT POPS FOCUSED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE.  HAVE THROWN OUT GFS SOLUTION...AS IT IS WAY
TO WARM ALOFT COMPARED TO OTHER SOLUTIONS.  HAVE RAISED FORECAST
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHICH
SHOULD BE THE TREND THROUGH 20Z. SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY PUSHES
EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...BECOMING A BIT BREEZY
IN CENTRAL SD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL STILL SEE SOME WEAK FLOW AND A DECENT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER THREAT FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX FROM ABOUT 8Z THROUGH 15Z.
KFSD WILL ALSO SEE THE THREAT BUT WILL BE ON THE EDGE AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY IFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KABR 292343 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
643 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. THE SKY WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH TOASTY 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20S CELSIUS. AT THE SFC...A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY. WITH BETTER MIXING TOMORROW AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...WILL BE ADDING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES...BUT FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED NONETHELESS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. STILL APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES PROGGED FOR THE OUT PERIODS.
THE ONE MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INDUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE HEADLINE IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD
READ..."UNSEASONABLY HOT FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER".

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE



000
FXUS63 KABR 292343 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
643 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. THE SKY WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH TOASTY 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20S CELSIUS. AT THE SFC...A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY. WITH BETTER MIXING TOMORROW AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...WILL BE ADDING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES...BUT FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED NONETHELESS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. STILL APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES PROGGED FOR THE OUT PERIODS.
THE ONE MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INDUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE HEADLINE IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD
READ..."UNSEASONABLY HOT FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER".

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 292316
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
516 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A
SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST...BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY. HAZY
SUNSHINE CONTINUES THROUGH THE SMOKE...THOUGH CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOT
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE
USUAL AREAS FROM NORTHEAST WY THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY TO GET ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE
JET.

SUNDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE PLAINS AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD DURING THE DAY. EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST WY LATE IN THE DAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL SD
OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS
COULD GET GUSTY WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY WARM CONDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW PERSISTS. THE WESTERN NOAM
UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE MERGES WITH IT...LEADING TOWARD BREAKDOWN OF THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE. IN THE MEANTIME...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...
SUPPORTING COOLER BUT STILL SEASONAL TEMPS IN A CAA REGIME MONDAY.
CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE WILL RE-SURGE TUE-THUR...WITH VERY WARM CONDS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION.
WEAK SW FLOW IMPULSES COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TS IN THE
TUE-WED PERIOD...ESP WITH ANY CONCENTRATED POS THETA-E ADV.
HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SIGNALS PRECLUDE ANY POP
MENTION. NW PAC UPPER TROUGH WILL BIAS EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH COOLER WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON THE SD PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET FROM 30-40KTS DEVELOPS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15
PERCENT OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SW WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUN.
PARTIALLY MIXED CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN PRESSURE
FALLS...WITH SW WINDS CONTINUING UNDER POOR RH RECOVERY. WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THIS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 292316
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
516 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A
SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST...BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY. HAZY
SUNSHINE CONTINUES THROUGH THE SMOKE...THOUGH CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOT
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE
USUAL AREAS FROM NORTHEAST WY THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY TO GET ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE
JET.

SUNDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE PLAINS AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD DURING THE DAY. EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST WY LATE IN THE DAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL SD
OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS
COULD GET GUSTY WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY WARM CONDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW PERSISTS. THE WESTERN NOAM
UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE MERGES WITH IT...LEADING TOWARD BREAKDOWN OF THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE. IN THE MEANTIME...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...
SUPPORTING COOLER BUT STILL SEASONAL TEMPS IN A CAA REGIME MONDAY.
CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE WILL RE-SURGE TUE-THUR...WITH VERY WARM CONDS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION.
WEAK SW FLOW IMPULSES COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TS IN THE
TUE-WED PERIOD...ESP WITH ANY CONCENTRATED POS THETA-E ADV.
HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SIGNALS PRECLUDE ANY POP
MENTION. NW PAC UPPER TROUGH WILL BIAS EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH COOLER WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON THE SD PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET FROM 30-40KTS DEVELOPS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15
PERCENT OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SW WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUN.
PARTIALLY MIXED CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN PRESSURE
FALLS...WITH SW WINDS CONTINUING UNDER POOR RH RECOVERY. WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THIS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 292316
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
516 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A
SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST...BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY. HAZY
SUNSHINE CONTINUES THROUGH THE SMOKE...THOUGH CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOT
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE
USUAL AREAS FROM NORTHEAST WY THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY TO GET ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE
JET.

SUNDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE PLAINS AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD DURING THE DAY. EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST WY LATE IN THE DAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL SD
OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS
COULD GET GUSTY WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY WARM CONDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW PERSISTS. THE WESTERN NOAM
UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE MERGES WITH IT...LEADING TOWARD BREAKDOWN OF THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE. IN THE MEANTIME...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...
SUPPORTING COOLER BUT STILL SEASONAL TEMPS IN A CAA REGIME MONDAY.
CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE WILL RE-SURGE TUE-THUR...WITH VERY WARM CONDS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION.
WEAK SW FLOW IMPULSES COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TS IN THE
TUE-WED PERIOD...ESP WITH ANY CONCENTRATED POS THETA-E ADV.
HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SIGNALS PRECLUDE ANY POP
MENTION. NW PAC UPPER TROUGH WILL BIAS EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH COOLER WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON THE SD PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET FROM 30-40KTS DEVELOPS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15
PERCENT OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SW WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUN.
PARTIALLY MIXED CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN PRESSURE
FALLS...WITH SW WINDS CONTINUING UNDER POOR RH RECOVERY. WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THIS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 292316
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
516 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A
SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST...BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY. HAZY
SUNSHINE CONTINUES THROUGH THE SMOKE...THOUGH CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOT
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE
USUAL AREAS FROM NORTHEAST WY THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY TO GET ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE
JET.

SUNDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE PLAINS AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD DURING THE DAY. EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST WY LATE IN THE DAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL SD
OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS
COULD GET GUSTY WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY WARM CONDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW PERSISTS. THE WESTERN NOAM
UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE MERGES WITH IT...LEADING TOWARD BREAKDOWN OF THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE. IN THE MEANTIME...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...
SUPPORTING COOLER BUT STILL SEASONAL TEMPS IN A CAA REGIME MONDAY.
CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE WILL RE-SURGE TUE-THUR...WITH VERY WARM CONDS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION.
WEAK SW FLOW IMPULSES COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TS IN THE
TUE-WED PERIOD...ESP WITH ANY CONCENTRATED POS THETA-E ADV.
HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SIGNALS PRECLUDE ANY POP
MENTION. NW PAC UPPER TROUGH WILL BIAS EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH COOLER WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON THE SD PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET FROM 30-40KTS DEVELOPS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15
PERCENT OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SW WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUN.
PARTIALLY MIXED CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN PRESSURE
FALLS...WITH SW WINDS CONTINUING UNDER POOR RH RECOVERY. WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THIS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 292316
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
516 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A
SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST...BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY. HAZY
SUNSHINE CONTINUES THROUGH THE SMOKE...THOUGH CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOT
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE
USUAL AREAS FROM NORTHEAST WY THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY TO GET ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE
JET.

SUNDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE PLAINS AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD DURING THE DAY. EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST WY LATE IN THE DAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL SD
OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS
COULD GET GUSTY WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY WARM CONDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW PERSISTS. THE WESTERN NOAM
UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE MERGES WITH IT...LEADING TOWARD BREAKDOWN OF THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE. IN THE MEANTIME...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...
SUPPORTING COOLER BUT STILL SEASONAL TEMPS IN A CAA REGIME MONDAY.
CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE WILL RE-SURGE TUE-THUR...WITH VERY WARM CONDS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION.
WEAK SW FLOW IMPULSES COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TS IN THE
TUE-WED PERIOD...ESP WITH ANY CONCENTRATED POS THETA-E ADV.
HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SIGNALS PRECLUDE ANY POP
MENTION. NW PAC UPPER TROUGH WILL BIAS EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH COOLER WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON THE SD PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET FROM 30-40KTS DEVELOPS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15
PERCENT OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SW WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUN.
PARTIALLY MIXED CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN PRESSURE
FALLS...WITH SW WINDS CONTINUING UNDER POOR RH RECOVERY. WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THIS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 292316
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
516 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A
SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST...BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY. HAZY
SUNSHINE CONTINUES THROUGH THE SMOKE...THOUGH CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOT
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE
USUAL AREAS FROM NORTHEAST WY THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY TO GET ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE
JET.

SUNDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE PLAINS AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD DURING THE DAY. EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST WY LATE IN THE DAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL SD
OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS
COULD GET GUSTY WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY WARM CONDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW PERSISTS. THE WESTERN NOAM
UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE MERGES WITH IT...LEADING TOWARD BREAKDOWN OF THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE. IN THE MEANTIME...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...
SUPPORTING COOLER BUT STILL SEASONAL TEMPS IN A CAA REGIME MONDAY.
CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE WILL RE-SURGE TUE-THUR...WITH VERY WARM CONDS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION.
WEAK SW FLOW IMPULSES COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TS IN THE
TUE-WED PERIOD...ESP WITH ANY CONCENTRATED POS THETA-E ADV.
HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SIGNALS PRECLUDE ANY POP
MENTION. NW PAC UPPER TROUGH WILL BIAS EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH COOLER WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON THE SD PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET FROM 30-40KTS DEVELOPS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15
PERCENT OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SW WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUN.
PARTIALLY MIXED CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN PRESSURE
FALLS...WITH SW WINDS CONTINUING UNDER POOR RH RECOVERY. WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THIS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...JC



000
FXUS63 KFSD 292105
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA...BUT STILL REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA. WITH THE WET
GROUND...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUSPECT THAT FOG AND
THIN LOW STRATUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA SO WILL
INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR SHORT LIVED AND SPOTTY DENSE FOG. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH 15Z AND SHOULD QUICKLY
ERODE MID TO LATE MORNING SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH A FEW MID 60S IN
CENTRAL SD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...BECOMING FAIRLY WINDY IN
CENTRAL SD DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S
IN CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 80 AROUND STORM LAKE.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE OVERALL FAIRLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG
DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.  ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY AS THE CAPPING INVERSION IS LESS. GFS SHOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES.  FOR NOW...LEFT POPS FOCUSED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE.  HAVE THROWN OUT GFS SOLUTION...AS IT IS WAY
TO WARM ALOFT COMPARED TO OTHER SOLUTIONS.  HAVE RAISED FORECAST
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHICH
SHOULD BE THE TREND THROUGH 20Z. SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY PUSHES
EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...BECOMING A BIT BREEZY
IN CENTRAL SD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL STILL SEE SOME WEAK FLOW AND A DECENT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER THREAT FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX FROM ABOUT 8Z THROUGH 15Z.
KFSD WILL ALSO SEE THE THREAT BUT WILL BE ON THE EDGE AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY IFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KFSD 292105
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA...BUT STILL REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA. WITH THE WET
GROUND...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUSPECT THAT FOG AND
THIN LOW STRATUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA SO WILL
INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR SHORT LIVED AND SPOTTY DENSE FOG. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH 15Z AND SHOULD QUICKLY
ERODE MID TO LATE MORNING SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH A FEW MID 60S IN
CENTRAL SD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...BECOMING FAIRLY WINDY IN
CENTRAL SD DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S
IN CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 80 AROUND STORM LAKE.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE OVERALL FAIRLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG
DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.  ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY AS THE CAPPING INVERSION IS LESS. GFS SHOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES.  FOR NOW...LEFT POPS FOCUSED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE.  HAVE THROWN OUT GFS SOLUTION...AS IT IS WAY
TO WARM ALOFT COMPARED TO OTHER SOLUTIONS.  HAVE RAISED FORECAST
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHICH
SHOULD BE THE TREND THROUGH 20Z. SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY PUSHES
EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...BECOMING A BIT BREEZY
IN CENTRAL SD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL STILL SEE SOME WEAK FLOW AND A DECENT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER THREAT FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX FROM ABOUT 8Z THROUGH 15Z.
KFSD WILL ALSO SEE THE THREAT BUT WILL BE ON THE EDGE AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY IFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 292105
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA...BUT STILL REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA. WITH THE WET
GROUND...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUSPECT THAT FOG AND
THIN LOW STRATUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA SO WILL
INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR SHORT LIVED AND SPOTTY DENSE FOG. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH 15Z AND SHOULD QUICKLY
ERODE MID TO LATE MORNING SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH A FEW MID 60S IN
CENTRAL SD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...BECOMING FAIRLY WINDY IN
CENTRAL SD DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S
IN CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 80 AROUND STORM LAKE.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE OVERALL FAIRLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG
DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.  ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY AS THE CAPPING INVERSION IS LESS. GFS SHOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES.  FOR NOW...LEFT POPS FOCUSED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE.  HAVE THROWN OUT GFS SOLUTION...AS IT IS WAY
TO WARM ALOFT COMPARED TO OTHER SOLUTIONS.  HAVE RAISED FORECAST
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHICH
SHOULD BE THE TREND THROUGH 20Z. SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY PUSHES
EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...BECOMING A BIT BREEZY
IN CENTRAL SD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL STILL SEE SOME WEAK FLOW AND A DECENT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER THREAT FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX FROM ABOUT 8Z THROUGH 15Z.
KFSD WILL ALSO SEE THE THREAT BUT WILL BE ON THE EDGE AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY IFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KFSD 292105
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA...BUT STILL REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA. WITH THE WET
GROUND...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUSPECT THAT FOG AND
THIN LOW STRATUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA SO WILL
INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR SHORT LIVED AND SPOTTY DENSE FOG. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH 15Z AND SHOULD QUICKLY
ERODE MID TO LATE MORNING SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH A FEW MID 60S IN
CENTRAL SD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...BECOMING FAIRLY WINDY IN
CENTRAL SD DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S
IN CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 80 AROUND STORM LAKE.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE OVERALL FAIRLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG
DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.  ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY AS THE CAPPING INVERSION IS LESS. GFS SHOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES.  FOR NOW...LEFT POPS FOCUSED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE.  HAVE THROWN OUT GFS SOLUTION...AS IT IS WAY
TO WARM ALOFT COMPARED TO OTHER SOLUTIONS.  HAVE RAISED FORECAST
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHICH
SHOULD BE THE TREND THROUGH 20Z. SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY PUSHES
EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...BECOMING A BIT BREEZY
IN CENTRAL SD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL STILL SEE SOME WEAK FLOW AND A DECENT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER THREAT FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX FROM ABOUT 8Z THROUGH 15Z.
KFSD WILL ALSO SEE THE THREAT BUT WILL BE ON THE EDGE AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY IFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KUNR 292059
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
259 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A
SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST...BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY. HAZY
SUNSHINE CONTINUES THROUGH THE SMOKE...THOUGH CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOT
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE
USUAL AREAS FROM NORTHEAST WY THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY TO GET ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE
JET.

SUNDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE PLAINS AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD DURING THE DAY. EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST WY LATE IN THE DAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL SD
OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS
COULD GET GUSTY WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY WARM CONDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW PERSISTS. THE WESTERN NOAM
UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE MERGES WITH IT...LEADING TOWARD BREAKDOWN OF THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE. IN THE MEANTIME...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...
SUPPORTING COOLER BUT STILL SEASONAL TEMPS IN A CAA REGIME MONDAY.
CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE WILL RE-SURGE TUE-THUR...WITH VERY WARM CONDS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION.
WEAK SW FLOW IMPULSES COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TS IN THE
TUE-WED PERIOD...ESP WITH ANY CONCENTRATED POS THETA-E ADV.
HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SIGNALS PRECLUDE ANY POP
MENTION. NW PAC UPPER TROUGH WILL BIAS EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH COOLER WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH ISOLD MVFR VIS POSSIBLE IN SMOKE FROM
WESTERN WILDFIRES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15
PERCENT OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SW WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUN.
PARTIALLY MIXED CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN PRESSURE
FALLS...WITH SW WINDS CONTINUING UNDER POOR RH RECOVERY. WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THIS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 292059
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
259 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A
SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST...BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY. HAZY
SUNSHINE CONTINUES THROUGH THE SMOKE...THOUGH CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOT
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE
USUAL AREAS FROM NORTHEAST WY THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY TO GET ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE
JET.

SUNDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE PLAINS AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD DURING THE DAY. EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST WY LATE IN THE DAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL SD
OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS
COULD GET GUSTY WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY WARM CONDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW PERSISTS. THE WESTERN NOAM
UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE MERGES WITH IT...LEADING TOWARD BREAKDOWN OF THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE. IN THE MEANTIME...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...
SUPPORTING COOLER BUT STILL SEASONAL TEMPS IN A CAA REGIME MONDAY.
CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE WILL RE-SURGE TUE-THUR...WITH VERY WARM CONDS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION.
WEAK SW FLOW IMPULSES COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TS IN THE
TUE-WED PERIOD...ESP WITH ANY CONCENTRATED POS THETA-E ADV.
HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SIGNALS PRECLUDE ANY POP
MENTION. NW PAC UPPER TROUGH WILL BIAS EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH COOLER WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH ISOLD MVFR VIS POSSIBLE IN SMOKE FROM
WESTERN WILDFIRES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15
PERCENT OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SW WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUN.
PARTIALLY MIXED CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN PRESSURE
FALLS...WITH SW WINDS CONTINUING UNDER POOR RH RECOVERY. WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THIS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 292059
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
259 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A
SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST...BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY. HAZY
SUNSHINE CONTINUES THROUGH THE SMOKE...THOUGH CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOT
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE
USUAL AREAS FROM NORTHEAST WY THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY TO GET ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE
JET.

SUNDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE PLAINS AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD DURING THE DAY. EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST WY LATE IN THE DAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL SD
OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS
COULD GET GUSTY WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY WARM CONDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW PERSISTS. THE WESTERN NOAM
UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE MERGES WITH IT...LEADING TOWARD BREAKDOWN OF THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE. IN THE MEANTIME...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...
SUPPORTING COOLER BUT STILL SEASONAL TEMPS IN A CAA REGIME MONDAY.
CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE WILL RE-SURGE TUE-THUR...WITH VERY WARM CONDS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION.
WEAK SW FLOW IMPULSES COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TS IN THE
TUE-WED PERIOD...ESP WITH ANY CONCENTRATED POS THETA-E ADV.
HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SIGNALS PRECLUDE ANY POP
MENTION. NW PAC UPPER TROUGH WILL BIAS EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH COOLER WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH ISOLD MVFR VIS POSSIBLE IN SMOKE FROM
WESTERN WILDFIRES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15
PERCENT OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SW WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUN.
PARTIALLY MIXED CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN PRESSURE
FALLS...WITH SW WINDS CONTINUING UNDER POOR RH RECOVERY. WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THIS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 292059
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
259 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A
SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST...BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY. HAZY
SUNSHINE CONTINUES THROUGH THE SMOKE...THOUGH CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOT
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE
USUAL AREAS FROM NORTHEAST WY THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY TO GET ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE
JET.

SUNDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE PLAINS AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD DURING THE DAY. EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST WY LATE IN THE DAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL SD
OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS
COULD GET GUSTY WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY WARM CONDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW PERSISTS. THE WESTERN NOAM
UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE MERGES WITH IT...LEADING TOWARD BREAKDOWN OF THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE. IN THE MEANTIME...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...
SUPPORTING COOLER BUT STILL SEASONAL TEMPS IN A CAA REGIME MONDAY.
CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE WILL RE-SURGE TUE-THUR...WITH VERY WARM CONDS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION.
WEAK SW FLOW IMPULSES COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TS IN THE
TUE-WED PERIOD...ESP WITH ANY CONCENTRATED POS THETA-E ADV.
HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SIGNALS PRECLUDE ANY POP
MENTION. NW PAC UPPER TROUGH WILL BIAS EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH COOLER WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH ISOLD MVFR VIS POSSIBLE IN SMOKE FROM
WESTERN WILDFIRES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15
PERCENT OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SW WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUN.
PARTIALLY MIXED CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN PRESSURE
FALLS...WITH SW WINDS CONTINUING UNDER POOR RH RECOVERY. WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THIS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...JC




000
FXUS63 KABR 292036
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
336 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH TOASTY 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20S CELSIUS. AT THE SFC...A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY. WITH BETTER MIXING TOMORROW AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...WILL BE ADDING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES...BUT FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED NONETHELESS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. STILL APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES PROGGED FOR THE OUT PERIODS.
THE ONE MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INDUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE HEADLINE IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD
READ..."UNSEASONABLY HOT FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER".

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

GOOD VFR CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TAFS OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE ARE PATCHES OF SMOKE OBSCURATION
AROUND...THAT ARE CAUSING SOME OBSERVING PLATFORMS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION TO REPORT 3SM TO 6SM VISBY IN SMOKE...SO DID INTRODUCE THAT
AT THE KMBG TERMINAL.

LATER TONIGHT...THE SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SOME IFR VISBY/CIGS IN
FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AROUND AND A SUBTLE SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPED
NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO INTRODUCE
SOMETHING SUB-VFR INTO...FOR STARTERS...THE KABR/KATY TAFS HERE IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN



000
FXUS63 KABR 292036
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
336 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH TOASTY 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20S CELSIUS. AT THE SFC...A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY. WITH BETTER MIXING TOMORROW AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...WILL BE ADDING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES...BUT FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED NONETHELESS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. STILL APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES PROGGED FOR THE OUT PERIODS.
THE ONE MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INDUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE HEADLINE IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD
READ..."UNSEASONABLY HOT FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER".

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

GOOD VFR CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TAFS OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE ARE PATCHES OF SMOKE OBSCURATION
AROUND...THAT ARE CAUSING SOME OBSERVING PLATFORMS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION TO REPORT 3SM TO 6SM VISBY IN SMOKE...SO DID INTRODUCE THAT
AT THE KMBG TERMINAL.

LATER TONIGHT...THE SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SOME IFR VISBY/CIGS IN
FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AROUND AND A SUBTLE SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPED
NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO INTRODUCE
SOMETHING SUB-VFR INTO...FOR STARTERS...THE KABR/KATY TAFS HERE IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 291752
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS PULLS
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT THE LOW CLOUDS SEEM TO BE TIED TO AREAS WITH A
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...SO USED THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO TIME
ITS DEPARTURE...IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY FOG
FORMATION AT THIS POINT...THOUGH STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH ABUNDANT
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS SO KEPT IT IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY...PROVIDING FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE LOOKING TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 80 FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD...TO NEAR 90 OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST...AND MODELS
AGAIN HINTING AT FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS FORMATION EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER...GENERALLY LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHICH
SHOULD BE THE TREND THROUGH 20Z. SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY PUSHES
EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...BECOMING A BIT BREEZY
IN CENTRAL SD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL STILL SEE SOME WEAK FLOW AND A DECENT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER THREAT FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX FROM ABOUT 8Z THROUGH 15Z.
KFSD WILL ALSO SEE THE THREAT BUT WILL BE ON THE EDGE AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 291752
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS PULLS
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT THE LOW CLOUDS SEEM TO BE TIED TO AREAS WITH A
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...SO USED THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO TIME
ITS DEPARTURE...IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY FOG
FORMATION AT THIS POINT...THOUGH STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH ABUNDANT
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS SO KEPT IT IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY...PROVIDING FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE LOOKING TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 80 FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD...TO NEAR 90 OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST...AND MODELS
AGAIN HINTING AT FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS FORMATION EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER...GENERALLY LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHICH
SHOULD BE THE TREND THROUGH 20Z. SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY PUSHES
EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...BECOMING A BIT BREEZY
IN CENTRAL SD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL STILL SEE SOME WEAK FLOW AND A DECENT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER THREAT FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX FROM ABOUT 8Z THROUGH 15Z.
KFSD WILL ALSO SEE THE THREAT BUT WILL BE ON THE EDGE AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KFSD 291752
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS PULLS
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT THE LOW CLOUDS SEEM TO BE TIED TO AREAS WITH A
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...SO USED THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO TIME
ITS DEPARTURE...IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY FOG
FORMATION AT THIS POINT...THOUGH STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH ABUNDANT
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS SO KEPT IT IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY...PROVIDING FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE LOOKING TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 80 FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD...TO NEAR 90 OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST...AND MODELS
AGAIN HINTING AT FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS FORMATION EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER...GENERALLY LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHICH
SHOULD BE THE TREND THROUGH 20Z. SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY PUSHES
EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...BECOMING A BIT BREEZY
IN CENTRAL SD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL STILL SEE SOME WEAK FLOW AND A DECENT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER THREAT FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX FROM ABOUT 8Z THROUGH 15Z.
KFSD WILL ALSO SEE THE THREAT BUT WILL BE ON THE EDGE AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 291752
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS PULLS
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT THE LOW CLOUDS SEEM TO BE TIED TO AREAS WITH A
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...SO USED THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO TIME
ITS DEPARTURE...IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY FOG
FORMATION AT THIS POINT...THOUGH STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH ABUNDANT
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS SO KEPT IT IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY...PROVIDING FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE LOOKING TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 80 FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD...TO NEAR 90 OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST...AND MODELS
AGAIN HINTING AT FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS FORMATION EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER...GENERALLY LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHICH
SHOULD BE THE TREND THROUGH 20Z. SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY PUSHES
EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...BECOMING A BIT BREEZY
IN CENTRAL SD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL STILL SEE SOME WEAK FLOW AND A DECENT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER THREAT FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX FROM ABOUT 8Z THROUGH 15Z.
KFSD WILL ALSO SEE THE THREAT BUT WILL BE ON THE EDGE AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 291752
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS PULLS
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT THE LOW CLOUDS SEEM TO BE TIED TO AREAS WITH A
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...SO USED THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO TIME
ITS DEPARTURE...IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY FOG
FORMATION AT THIS POINT...THOUGH STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH ABUNDANT
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS SO KEPT IT IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY...PROVIDING FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE LOOKING TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 80 FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD...TO NEAR 90 OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST...AND MODELS
AGAIN HINTING AT FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS FORMATION EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER...GENERALLY LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHICH
SHOULD BE THE TREND THROUGH 20Z. SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY PUSHES
EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...BECOMING A BIT BREEZY
IN CENTRAL SD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL STILL SEE SOME WEAK FLOW AND A DECENT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER THREAT FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX FROM ABOUT 8Z THROUGH 15Z.
KFSD WILL ALSO SEE THE THREAT BUT WILL BE ON THE EDGE AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 291752
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS PULLS
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT THE LOW CLOUDS SEEM TO BE TIED TO AREAS WITH A
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...SO USED THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO TIME
ITS DEPARTURE...IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY FOG
FORMATION AT THIS POINT...THOUGH STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH ABUNDANT
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS SO KEPT IT IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY...PROVIDING FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE LOOKING TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 80 FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD...TO NEAR 90 OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST...AND MODELS
AGAIN HINTING AT FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS FORMATION EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER...GENERALLY LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHICH
SHOULD BE THE TREND THROUGH 20Z. SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY PUSHES
EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...BECOMING A BIT BREEZY
IN CENTRAL SD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL STILL SEE SOME WEAK FLOW AND A DECENT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER THREAT FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX FROM ABOUT 8Z THROUGH 15Z.
KFSD WILL ALSO SEE THE THREAT BUT WILL BE ON THE EDGE AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KABR 291750 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SKY WILL REMAIN A BIT HAZY TODAY FROM FOREST FIRE SMOKE OUT WEST.
VSBY HAS NOT BEEN AFFECTED LARGELY...EXCEPT FOR 8 SM AT MBG. WILL
KEEP SMOKE MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS UNLESS OTHER SITES BEGIN TO
SEE VSBY REDUCTIONS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS ON
TRACK BUT SOME AREAS MAY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT. HAZY
SKY...MODEST DEWPOINTS AND LACK OF REAL GOOD MIXING IN SOME AREAS
MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN JUST A TOUCH. NONETHELESS...WILL STILL SEE
WARM READINGS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO
THE MID 90S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. 850MB WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL ALSO AID IN MIXING. 850MB WINDS INCREASING TO 50KTS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE DROP. A
VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ALSO EXIST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP. NAM PROFILES ARE WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ABOVE 12KFT ABOVE THE VERY WARM/DRY LAYER...SO THERE MAY BE SOME
ELEVATED ACCAS TYPE SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MIGRATE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EARLY MONDAY. PASSAGE OF FRONT WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE CWA WILL THEN
BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT LOOK
TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF JUST A
BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WITH THIS FRONT ON FRIDAY...BUT A FAIRLY
WARM MID LEVEL CAP MAY BE A HINDERING FACTOR. DUE TO THIS...WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SCHC/CHC CATEGORY...SIMILAR TO SUPERBLEND...FOR NOW.

WARM AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

GOOD VFR CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TAFS OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE ARE PATCHES OF SMOKE OBSCURATION
AROUND...THAT ARE CAUSING SOME OBSERVING PLATFORMS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION TO REPORT 3SM TO 6SM VISBY IN SMOKE...SO DID INTRODUCE THAT
AT THE KMBG TERMINAL.

LATER TONIGHT...THE SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SOME IFR VISBY/CIGS IN
FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AROUND AND A SUBTLE SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPEDNORTH-
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO INTRODUCE SOMETHING
SUB-VFR INTO...FOR STARTERS...THE KABR/KATY TAFS HERE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 291750 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SKY WILL REMAIN A BIT HAZY TODAY FROM FOREST FIRE SMOKE OUT WEST.
VSBY HAS NOT BEEN AFFECTED LARGELY...EXCEPT FOR 8 SM AT MBG. WILL
KEEP SMOKE MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS UNLESS OTHER SITES BEGIN TO
SEE VSBY REDUCTIONS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS ON
TRACK BUT SOME AREAS MAY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT. HAZY
SKY...MODEST DEWPOINTS AND LACK OF REAL GOOD MIXING IN SOME AREAS
MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN JUST A TOUCH. NONETHELESS...WILL STILL SEE
WARM READINGS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO
THE MID 90S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. 850MB WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL ALSO AID IN MIXING. 850MB WINDS INCREASING TO 50KTS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE DROP. A
VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ALSO EXIST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP. NAM PROFILES ARE WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ABOVE 12KFT ABOVE THE VERY WARM/DRY LAYER...SO THERE MAY BE SOME
ELEVATED ACCAS TYPE SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MIGRATE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EARLY MONDAY. PASSAGE OF FRONT WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE CWA WILL THEN
BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT LOOK
TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF JUST A
BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WITH THIS FRONT ON FRIDAY...BUT A FAIRLY
WARM MID LEVEL CAP MAY BE A HINDERING FACTOR. DUE TO THIS...WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SCHC/CHC CATEGORY...SIMILAR TO SUPERBLEND...FOR NOW.

WARM AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

GOOD VFR CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TAFS OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE ARE PATCHES OF SMOKE OBSCURATION
AROUND...THAT ARE CAUSING SOME OBSERVING PLATFORMS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION TO REPORT 3SM TO 6SM VISBY IN SMOKE...SO DID INTRODUCE THAT
AT THE KMBG TERMINAL.

LATER TONIGHT...THE SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SOME IFR VISBY/CIGS IN
FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AROUND AND A SUBTLE SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPEDNORTH-
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO INTRODUCE SOMETHING
SUB-VFR INTO...FOR STARTERS...THE KABR/KATY TAFS HERE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 291750 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SKY WILL REMAIN A BIT HAZY TODAY FROM FOREST FIRE SMOKE OUT WEST.
VSBY HAS NOT BEEN AFFECTED LARGELY...EXCEPT FOR 8 SM AT MBG. WILL
KEEP SMOKE MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS UNLESS OTHER SITES BEGIN TO
SEE VSBY REDUCTIONS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS ON
TRACK BUT SOME AREAS MAY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT. HAZY
SKY...MODEST DEWPOINTS AND LACK OF REAL GOOD MIXING IN SOME AREAS
MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN JUST A TOUCH. NONETHELESS...WILL STILL SEE
WARM READINGS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO
THE MID 90S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. 850MB WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL ALSO AID IN MIXING. 850MB WINDS INCREASING TO 50KTS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE DROP. A
VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ALSO EXIST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP. NAM PROFILES ARE WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ABOVE 12KFT ABOVE THE VERY WARM/DRY LAYER...SO THERE MAY BE SOME
ELEVATED ACCAS TYPE SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MIGRATE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EARLY MONDAY. PASSAGE OF FRONT WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE CWA WILL THEN
BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT LOOK
TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF JUST A
BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WITH THIS FRONT ON FRIDAY...BUT A FAIRLY
WARM MID LEVEL CAP MAY BE A HINDERING FACTOR. DUE TO THIS...WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SCHC/CHC CATEGORY...SIMILAR TO SUPERBLEND...FOR NOW.

WARM AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

GOOD VFR CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TAFS OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE ARE PATCHES OF SMOKE OBSCURATION
AROUND...THAT ARE CAUSING SOME OBSERVING PLATFORMS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION TO REPORT 3SM TO 6SM VISBY IN SMOKE...SO DID INTRODUCE THAT
AT THE KMBG TERMINAL.

LATER TONIGHT...THE SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SOME IFR VISBY/CIGS IN
FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AROUND AND A SUBTLE SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPEDNORTH-
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO INTRODUCE SOMETHING
SUB-VFR INTO...FOR STARTERS...THE KABR/KATY TAFS HERE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 291750 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SKY WILL REMAIN A BIT HAZY TODAY FROM FOREST FIRE SMOKE OUT WEST.
VSBY HAS NOT BEEN AFFECTED LARGELY...EXCEPT FOR 8 SM AT MBG. WILL
KEEP SMOKE MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS UNLESS OTHER SITES BEGIN TO
SEE VSBY REDUCTIONS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS ON
TRACK BUT SOME AREAS MAY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT. HAZY
SKY...MODEST DEWPOINTS AND LACK OF REAL GOOD MIXING IN SOME AREAS
MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN JUST A TOUCH. NONETHELESS...WILL STILL SEE
WARM READINGS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO
THE MID 90S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. 850MB WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL ALSO AID IN MIXING. 850MB WINDS INCREASING TO 50KTS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE DROP. A
VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ALSO EXIST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP. NAM PROFILES ARE WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ABOVE 12KFT ABOVE THE VERY WARM/DRY LAYER...SO THERE MAY BE SOME
ELEVATED ACCAS TYPE SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MIGRATE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EARLY MONDAY. PASSAGE OF FRONT WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE CWA WILL THEN
BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT LOOK
TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF JUST A
BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WITH THIS FRONT ON FRIDAY...BUT A FAIRLY
WARM MID LEVEL CAP MAY BE A HINDERING FACTOR. DUE TO THIS...WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SCHC/CHC CATEGORY...SIMILAR TO SUPERBLEND...FOR NOW.

WARM AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

GOOD VFR CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TAFS OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE ARE PATCHES OF SMOKE OBSCURATION
AROUND...THAT ARE CAUSING SOME OBSERVING PLATFORMS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION TO REPORT 3SM TO 6SM VISBY IN SMOKE...SO DID INTRODUCE THAT
AT THE KMBG TERMINAL.

LATER TONIGHT...THE SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SOME IFR VISBY/CIGS IN
FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AROUND AND A SUBTLE SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPEDNORTH-
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO INTRODUCE SOMETHING
SUB-VFR INTO...FOR STARTERS...THE KABR/KATY TAFS HERE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 291750 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SKY WILL REMAIN A BIT HAZY TODAY FROM FOREST FIRE SMOKE OUT WEST.
VSBY HAS NOT BEEN AFFECTED LARGELY...EXCEPT FOR 8 SM AT MBG. WILL
KEEP SMOKE MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS UNLESS OTHER SITES BEGIN TO
SEE VSBY REDUCTIONS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS ON
TRACK BUT SOME AREAS MAY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT. HAZY
SKY...MODEST DEWPOINTS AND LACK OF REAL GOOD MIXING IN SOME AREAS
MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN JUST A TOUCH. NONETHELESS...WILL STILL SEE
WARM READINGS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO
THE MID 90S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. 850MB WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL ALSO AID IN MIXING. 850MB WINDS INCREASING TO 50KTS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE DROP. A
VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ALSO EXIST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP. NAM PROFILES ARE WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ABOVE 12KFT ABOVE THE VERY WARM/DRY LAYER...SO THERE MAY BE SOME
ELEVATED ACCAS TYPE SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MIGRATE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EARLY MONDAY. PASSAGE OF FRONT WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE CWA WILL THEN
BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT LOOK
TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF JUST A
BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WITH THIS FRONT ON FRIDAY...BUT A FAIRLY
WARM MID LEVEL CAP MAY BE A HINDERING FACTOR. DUE TO THIS...WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SCHC/CHC CATEGORY...SIMILAR TO SUPERBLEND...FOR NOW.

WARM AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

GOOD VFR CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TAFS OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE ARE PATCHES OF SMOKE OBSCURATION
AROUND...THAT ARE CAUSING SOME OBSERVING PLATFORMS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION TO REPORT 3SM TO 6SM VISBY IN SMOKE...SO DID INTRODUCE THAT
AT THE KMBG TERMINAL.

LATER TONIGHT...THE SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SOME IFR VISBY/CIGS IN
FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AROUND AND A SUBTLE SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPEDNORTH-
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO INTRODUCE SOMETHING
SUB-VFR INTO...FOR STARTERS...THE KABR/KATY TAFS HERE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 291750 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SKY WILL REMAIN A BIT HAZY TODAY FROM FOREST FIRE SMOKE OUT WEST.
VSBY HAS NOT BEEN AFFECTED LARGELY...EXCEPT FOR 8 SM AT MBG. WILL
KEEP SMOKE MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS UNLESS OTHER SITES BEGIN TO
SEE VSBY REDUCTIONS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS ON
TRACK BUT SOME AREAS MAY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT. HAZY
SKY...MODEST DEWPOINTS AND LACK OF REAL GOOD MIXING IN SOME AREAS
MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN JUST A TOUCH. NONETHELESS...WILL STILL SEE
WARM READINGS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO
THE MID 90S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. 850MB WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL ALSO AID IN MIXING. 850MB WINDS INCREASING TO 50KTS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE DROP. A
VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ALSO EXIST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP. NAM PROFILES ARE WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ABOVE 12KFT ABOVE THE VERY WARM/DRY LAYER...SO THERE MAY BE SOME
ELEVATED ACCAS TYPE SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MIGRATE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EARLY MONDAY. PASSAGE OF FRONT WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE CWA WILL THEN
BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT LOOK
TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF JUST A
BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WITH THIS FRONT ON FRIDAY...BUT A FAIRLY
WARM MID LEVEL CAP MAY BE A HINDERING FACTOR. DUE TO THIS...WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SCHC/CHC CATEGORY...SIMILAR TO SUPERBLEND...FOR NOW.

WARM AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

GOOD VFR CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TAFS OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE ARE PATCHES OF SMOKE OBSCURATION
AROUND...THAT ARE CAUSING SOME OBSERVING PLATFORMS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION TO REPORT 3SM TO 6SM VISBY IN SMOKE...SO DID INTRODUCE THAT
AT THE KMBG TERMINAL.

LATER TONIGHT...THE SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SOME IFR VISBY/CIGS IN
FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AROUND AND A SUBTLE SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPEDNORTH-
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO INTRODUCE SOMETHING
SUB-VFR INTO...FOR STARTERS...THE KABR/KATY TAFS HERE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN



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