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000
FXUS63 KABR 290018 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
718 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS SET UP FROM FREDERICK TO
FAULKTON TO MILLER...INCLUDING ABERDEEN. MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP
ON THIS AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE VERY WELL BUT ACCORDING TO RADAR TRENDS AND SFC
ANALYSIS IT WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. INCREASED
POPS AND SKY COVER ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA THIS EVENING.
ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR EASTERN EDMUNDS COUNTY AS
AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER AREAS THAT ALREADY HAD
FLOODING EARLIER THIS WEEK. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
EXIT AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FROM
THAT POINT ON.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.




&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE SHORT TERM ARE RAIN CHANCES.
SHEAR AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EAST TAKING THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. ON FRIDAY ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA. COMBINED WITH WEAK
TO MODERATE MLCAPE BY AFTERNOON...LOOKS LIKE ISOLD/SCT STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO
THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A DECENT LLJ AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT. STORMS MAY FORM OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND
MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...TAPPING INTO THE LLJ/MOISTURE AND RIDE
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST WITH LATE AFTERNOON STORMS IN ITS
VICINITY. CAPE/SHEAR/MOISTURE ALL LOOK PRETTY GOOD...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE BIG SIOUX VALLEY BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND SOME DECENT ENERGY...WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WEAK ENERGY WILL STILL AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN MINIMAL ENERGY WILL BE
AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING A DECENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...AND THEREFORE
THERE MAY NOT BE A GREAT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS HERE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE MODELS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL PRETTY MUCH BE DRY...WITH JUST A FEW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH TIMING AND
LOCATION THAT FAR OUT HOWEVER...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD DUE TO
MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL THEN SEE A RETURN TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. A CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS SET UP OVER KABR CAUSING
ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES AND RESULTING IN IFR VSBY. THIS WILL
LIKELY LINGER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE RAIN EXITS. IFR/MVFR
CIGS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR
KABR/KATY. AS FOG DEVELOPS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT EXPECT VFR VSBY TO FALL TO MVFR/IFR AT KMBG/KPIR UNTIL
EARLY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KATY
WHICH SHOULD CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 290018 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
718 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS SET UP FROM FREDERICK TO
FAULKTON TO MILLER...INCLUDING ABERDEEN. MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP
ON THIS AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE VERY WELL BUT ACCORDING TO RADAR TRENDS AND SFC
ANALYSIS IT WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. INCREASED
POPS AND SKY COVER ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA THIS EVENING.
ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR EASTERN EDMUNDS COUNTY AS
AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER AREAS THAT ALREADY HAD
FLOODING EARLIER THIS WEEK. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
EXIT AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FROM
THAT POINT ON.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.




&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE SHORT TERM ARE RAIN CHANCES.
SHEAR AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EAST TAKING THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. ON FRIDAY ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA. COMBINED WITH WEAK
TO MODERATE MLCAPE BY AFTERNOON...LOOKS LIKE ISOLD/SCT STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO
THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A DECENT LLJ AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT. STORMS MAY FORM OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND
MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...TAPPING INTO THE LLJ/MOISTURE AND RIDE
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST WITH LATE AFTERNOON STORMS IN ITS
VICINITY. CAPE/SHEAR/MOISTURE ALL LOOK PRETTY GOOD...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE BIG SIOUX VALLEY BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND SOME DECENT ENERGY...WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WEAK ENERGY WILL STILL AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN MINIMAL ENERGY WILL BE
AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING A DECENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...AND THEREFORE
THERE MAY NOT BE A GREAT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS HERE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE MODELS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL PRETTY MUCH BE DRY...WITH JUST A FEW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH TIMING AND
LOCATION THAT FAR OUT HOWEVER...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD DUE TO
MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL THEN SEE A RETURN TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. A CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS SET UP OVER KABR CAUSING
ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES AND RESULTING IN IFR VSBY. THIS WILL
LIKELY LINGER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE RAIN EXITS. IFR/MVFR
CIGS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR
KABR/KATY. AS FOG DEVELOPS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT EXPECT VFR VSBY TO FALL TO MVFR/IFR AT KMBG/KPIR UNTIL
EARLY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KATY
WHICH SHOULD CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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000
FXUS63 KUNR 282323
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
523 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NEB...WITH INVERTED TROF STRETCHING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST CO...SLOWLY MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST. KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
CENTRAL SD TO FAR SOUTHWEST SD. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN SD. SKIES RANGE
FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. HAVE ADDED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
SYSTEM IS SLOWER TO MOVE OUT THAN WAS EXPECTED. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HAVE KEPT
PATCHY FOG IN FOR MOST OF THE SD PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE...MUCH WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT ONE...WILL
MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...BUT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS IN THE
AFTERNOON TO POSSIBLY GET A STRONG STORM OR TWO GOING. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 70S ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES OVER
THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY IN
THE EVENING AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CWA WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
MIDWEST DURING THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ZIPS THROUGH MT INTO
ND/WY BY SATURDAY EVENING. SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
MT AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A NARROW BAND OF
1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE FROM SOUTHEAST MT INTO CENTRAL SD. 15-20M/S 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR SPREADS ACROSS NORTHWEST SD DURING PEAK HEATING. MLCIN
SHOULD BE BROKEN BY SURFACE FORCING AND LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
RESULTING IN STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A SMALL
MCS GIVEN DEVELOPING 50KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH VERY WARM READINGS
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COOLER READINGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
SAUNTERS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BRINGING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWER THAN RECENT MEMORY GIVEN
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER SUNDAY
AND THEN WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST US. DRIER AND
WARMER PATTERN MAY EVOLVE GIVEN THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

SCATTERED -SHRA ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM KMGB TO KCDR WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING...EXITING THE AREA COMPLETELY
LATER THIS EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST ALSO. BEHIND THESE FEATURES...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ON THE SD PLAINS LATER TONIGHT WHERE LOCAL MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
FOG MAY OCCUR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 282323
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
523 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NEB...WITH INVERTED TROF STRETCHING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST CO...SLOWLY MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST. KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
CENTRAL SD TO FAR SOUTHWEST SD. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN SD. SKIES RANGE
FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. HAVE ADDED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
SYSTEM IS SLOWER TO MOVE OUT THAN WAS EXPECTED. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HAVE KEPT
PATCHY FOG IN FOR MOST OF THE SD PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE...MUCH WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT ONE...WILL
MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...BUT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS IN THE
AFTERNOON TO POSSIBLY GET A STRONG STORM OR TWO GOING. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 70S ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES OVER
THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY IN
THE EVENING AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CWA WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
MIDWEST DURING THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ZIPS THROUGH MT INTO
ND/WY BY SATURDAY EVENING. SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
MT AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A NARROW BAND OF
1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE FROM SOUTHEAST MT INTO CENTRAL SD. 15-20M/S 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR SPREADS ACROSS NORTHWEST SD DURING PEAK HEATING. MLCIN
SHOULD BE BROKEN BY SURFACE FORCING AND LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
RESULTING IN STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A SMALL
MCS GIVEN DEVELOPING 50KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH VERY WARM READINGS
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COOLER READINGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
SAUNTERS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BRINGING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWER THAN RECENT MEMORY GIVEN
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER SUNDAY
AND THEN WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST US. DRIER AND
WARMER PATTERN MAY EVOLVE GIVEN THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

SCATTERED -SHRA ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM KMGB TO KCDR WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING...EXITING THE AREA COMPLETELY
LATER THIS EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST ALSO. BEHIND THESE FEATURES...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ON THE SD PLAINS LATER TONIGHT WHERE LOCAL MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
FOG MAY OCCUR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 282323
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
523 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NEB...WITH INVERTED TROF STRETCHING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST CO...SLOWLY MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST. KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
CENTRAL SD TO FAR SOUTHWEST SD. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN SD. SKIES RANGE
FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. HAVE ADDED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
SYSTEM IS SLOWER TO MOVE OUT THAN WAS EXPECTED. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HAVE KEPT
PATCHY FOG IN FOR MOST OF THE SD PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE...MUCH WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT ONE...WILL
MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...BUT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS IN THE
AFTERNOON TO POSSIBLY GET A STRONG STORM OR TWO GOING. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 70S ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES OVER
THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY IN
THE EVENING AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CWA WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
MIDWEST DURING THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ZIPS THROUGH MT INTO
ND/WY BY SATURDAY EVENING. SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
MT AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A NARROW BAND OF
1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE FROM SOUTHEAST MT INTO CENTRAL SD. 15-20M/S 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR SPREADS ACROSS NORTHWEST SD DURING PEAK HEATING. MLCIN
SHOULD BE BROKEN BY SURFACE FORCING AND LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
RESULTING IN STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A SMALL
MCS GIVEN DEVELOPING 50KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH VERY WARM READINGS
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COOLER READINGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
SAUNTERS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BRINGING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWER THAN RECENT MEMORY GIVEN
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER SUNDAY
AND THEN WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST US. DRIER AND
WARMER PATTERN MAY EVOLVE GIVEN THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

SCATTERED -SHRA ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM KMGB TO KCDR WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING...EXITING THE AREA COMPLETELY
LATER THIS EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST ALSO. BEHIND THESE FEATURES...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ON THE SD PLAINS LATER TONIGHT WHERE LOCAL MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
FOG MAY OCCUR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 282323
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
523 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NEB...WITH INVERTED TROF STRETCHING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST CO...SLOWLY MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST. KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
CENTRAL SD TO FAR SOUTHWEST SD. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN SD. SKIES RANGE
FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. HAVE ADDED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
SYSTEM IS SLOWER TO MOVE OUT THAN WAS EXPECTED. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HAVE KEPT
PATCHY FOG IN FOR MOST OF THE SD PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE...MUCH WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT ONE...WILL
MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...BUT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS IN THE
AFTERNOON TO POSSIBLY GET A STRONG STORM OR TWO GOING. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 70S ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES OVER
THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY IN
THE EVENING AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CWA WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
MIDWEST DURING THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ZIPS THROUGH MT INTO
ND/WY BY SATURDAY EVENING. SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
MT AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A NARROW BAND OF
1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE FROM SOUTHEAST MT INTO CENTRAL SD. 15-20M/S 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR SPREADS ACROSS NORTHWEST SD DURING PEAK HEATING. MLCIN
SHOULD BE BROKEN BY SURFACE FORCING AND LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
RESULTING IN STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A SMALL
MCS GIVEN DEVELOPING 50KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH VERY WARM READINGS
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COOLER READINGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
SAUNTERS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BRINGING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWER THAN RECENT MEMORY GIVEN
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER SUNDAY
AND THEN WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST US. DRIER AND
WARMER PATTERN MAY EVOLVE GIVEN THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

SCATTERED -SHRA ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM KMGB TO KCDR WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING...EXITING THE AREA COMPLETELY
LATER THIS EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST ALSO. BEHIND THESE FEATURES...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ON THE SD PLAINS LATER TONIGHT WHERE LOCAL MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
FOG MAY OCCUR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 282132
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
332 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NEB...WITH INVERTED TROF STRETCHING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST CO...SLOWLY MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST. KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
CENTRAL SD TO FAR SOUTHWEST SD. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN SD. SKIES RANGE
FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. HAVE ADDED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
SYSTEM IS SLOWER TO MOVE OUT THAN WAS EXPECTED. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HAVE KEPT
PATCHY FOG IN FOR MOST OF THE SD PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE...MUCH WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT ONE...WILL
MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...BUT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS IN THE
AFTERNOON TO POSSIBLY GET A STRONG STORM OR TWO GOING. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 70S ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES OVER
THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY IN
THE EVENING AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CWA WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
MIDWEST DURING THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ZIPS THROUGH MT INTO
ND/WY BY SATURDAY EVENING. SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
MT AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A NARROW BAND OF
1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE FROM SOUTHEAST MT INTO CENTRAL SD. 15-20M/S 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR SPREADS ACROSS NORTHWEST SD DURING PEAK HEATING. MLCIN
SHOULD BE BROKEN BY SURFACE FORCING AND LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
RESULTING IN STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A SMALL
MCS GIVEN DEVELOPING 50KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH VERY WARM READINGS
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COOLER READINGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
SAUNTERS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BRINGING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWER THAN RECENT MEMORY GIVEN
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER SUNDAY
AND THEN WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST US. DRIER AND
WARMER PATTERN MAY EVOLVE GIVEN THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM KMGB TO
KCDR WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA
COMPLETELY THIS EVENING. AREAS IFR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AND ST/BR WILL SHIFT EAST ALSO. BEHIND THESE
FEATURES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ON THE SD PLAINS LATER TONIGHT WHERE LOCAL MVFR
VSBYS DUE TO BR MAY OCCUR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 282132
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
332 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NEB...WITH INVERTED TROF STRETCHING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST CO...SLOWLY MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST. KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
CENTRAL SD TO FAR SOUTHWEST SD. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN SD. SKIES RANGE
FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. HAVE ADDED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
SYSTEM IS SLOWER TO MOVE OUT THAN WAS EXPECTED. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HAVE KEPT
PATCHY FOG IN FOR MOST OF THE SD PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE...MUCH WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT ONE...WILL
MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...BUT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS IN THE
AFTERNOON TO POSSIBLY GET A STRONG STORM OR TWO GOING. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 70S ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES OVER
THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY IN
THE EVENING AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CWA WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
MIDWEST DURING THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ZIPS THROUGH MT INTO
ND/WY BY SATURDAY EVENING. SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
MT AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A NARROW BAND OF
1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE FROM SOUTHEAST MT INTO CENTRAL SD. 15-20M/S 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR SPREADS ACROSS NORTHWEST SD DURING PEAK HEATING. MLCIN
SHOULD BE BROKEN BY SURFACE FORCING AND LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
RESULTING IN STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A SMALL
MCS GIVEN DEVELOPING 50KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH VERY WARM READINGS
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COOLER READINGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
SAUNTERS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BRINGING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWER THAN RECENT MEMORY GIVEN
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER SUNDAY
AND THEN WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST US. DRIER AND
WARMER PATTERN MAY EVOLVE GIVEN THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM KMGB TO
KCDR WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA
COMPLETELY THIS EVENING. AREAS IFR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AND ST/BR WILL SHIFT EAST ALSO. BEHIND THESE
FEATURES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ON THE SD PLAINS LATER TONIGHT WHERE LOCAL MVFR
VSBYS DUE TO BR MAY OCCUR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON






000
FXUS63 KABR 282041
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
341 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE SHORT TERM ARE RAIN CHANCES.
SHEAR AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EAST TAKING THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. ON FRIDAY ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA. COMBINED WITH WEAK
TO MODERATE MLCAPE BY AFTERNOON...LOOKS LIKE ISOLD/SCT STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO
THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A DECENT LLJ AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT. STORMS MAY FORM OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND
MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...TAPPING INTO THE LLJ/MOISTURE AND RIDE
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST WITH LATE AFTERNOON STORMS IN ITS
VICINITY. CAPE/SHEAR/MOISTURE ALL LOOK PRETTY GOOD...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE BIG SIOUX VALLEY BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND SOME DECENT ENERGY...WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WEAK ENERGY WILL STILL AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN MINIMAL ENERGY WILL BE
AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING A DECENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...AND THEREFORE
THERE MAY NOT BE A GREAT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS HERE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE MODELS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL PRETTY MUCH BE DRY...WITH JUST A FEW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH TIMING AND
LOCATION THAT FAR OUT HOWEVER...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD DUE TO
MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL THEN SEE A RETURN TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KFSD 282036
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
336 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN CONCERN ARE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST.

A STRONG DRY SLOT MOVED THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN SD...WESTERN IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST MN LATE THIS MORNING. WITH SOME HEATING OVER ERN
NEBRASKA...THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SUCH THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING EAST OF VERMILLION
TO MML LINE. ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE HEATING
AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE
ASCENT AND DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00Z OR SO. HOWEVER...AS THE
SUNSET...INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE AND SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE A STORM
TOWARD I29 THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST.

THE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER
THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES TO THE EAST. WITH RAIN EARLIER TODAY...THIS SETS UP A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A
SLOW INCREASE IN NW FLOW TOMORROW MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
I29...HAVE THE FOG DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. WITH THE FLOW
CONTINUING TO BE WEAK...THIS FOG COULD PERSIST LATER INTO THE NIGHT.
THE OTHER EFFECT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS THAT LOWS WILL BE
WARMER TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER 60S AROUND KHON TO THE UPPER 60S
AROUND KSUX.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
REACHING ERN NEBRASKA AROUND 18Z. WITH THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...EXPECT THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNIGN NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER MOST SW MN AND NW
IA...WITH AREAS FROM SUX TO MJQ HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN.
IN GENERAL...EXPECTING FROM A TENTH TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IN THIS
AREA...WITH LESS TO NORTHWEST...BUT COULD SEE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH WITH STRONGER STORMS. FARTHER WEST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY. WITH THE LACK OF COLD ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 80S...WITH MID 80S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...IT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

LINGERING TSRA ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. AFTER
FROPA...SKIES WILL CLEAR SOME ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL SEVERE WX DAY. LLVL JET IS
AROUND 40-45KTS ADVECTING A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT INTO SE SOUTH
DAKOTA. DECENT AMT OF SHEAR IS ALSO PRESENT ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SKY COVER WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
AMT OF INSOLATION TO CORRESPOND WITH BETTER SVR PARAMETERS AS WELL
AS SOMEWHAT OF A CAP. EITHER WAY...STRENGTH OF APPROACHING WAVE
AND RESULTANT SFC FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS...ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUES WITH A WEAK WAVEQUICKLY
PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF TSRA.

FOR TUES THROUGH THURS...ONLY CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THIS PD IS IN
SOUTHWEST MN ON TUES NIGHT AND MOST OF THE CWA ON WED NIGHT AS
YET ANOTHER FEW WEAK WAVES PASS THROUGH BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF
TSRA.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PD ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

SEVERAL ISSUES WITH TAFS NEXT 24 H. THE FIRST ISSUE IS THE LOW
CLODUS AROUND THE AREA TODAY. CIGS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN RISING ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. AS STRATOCU FORMS...MVFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE
PREDOMINATE. HOWEVER...AS THE SUNSETS EXPECT CIGS TO RISE BRIEFLY TO
MVF AT KSUX AND KFSD. THAT SHOULD ALSO OCCUR A LITTLE LATER AT
KHON...LIKELY TO 03Z. HOWEVER...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT
FOG TO FORM LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...HAVE NOT FAVORED ANY ONE
TAF WITH LOWER VSBYS BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR VSBYS LESS THAN
1SM AND CIGS BELOW 500 FT IS KHON WHERE WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS FOG WILL VERY SLOWLY BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING. EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS WILL BE TOWARD 15Z AROUND KHON
ALTHOUGH IF SURFACE TROUGH MOVES MORE SLOWLY THAN EXPECTED AND NW
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...FOG COULD LINGER THROUGH 15Z. FARTHER
EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTOMRS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 15Z...ESPECIALLY
AROUND KHON WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IFR CEILINGS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER



000
FXUS63 KFSD 282036
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
336 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN CONCERN ARE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST.

A STRONG DRY SLOT MOVED THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN SD...WESTERN IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST MN LATE THIS MORNING. WITH SOME HEATING OVER ERN
NEBRASKA...THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SUCH THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING EAST OF VERMILLION
TO MML LINE. ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE HEATING
AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE
ASCENT AND DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00Z OR SO. HOWEVER...AS THE
SUNSET...INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE AND SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE A STORM
TOWARD I29 THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST.

THE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER
THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES TO THE EAST. WITH RAIN EARLIER TODAY...THIS SETS UP A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A
SLOW INCREASE IN NW FLOW TOMORROW MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
I29...HAVE THE FOG DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. WITH THE FLOW
CONTINUING TO BE WEAK...THIS FOG COULD PERSIST LATER INTO THE NIGHT.
THE OTHER EFFECT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS THAT LOWS WILL BE
WARMER TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER 60S AROUND KHON TO THE UPPER 60S
AROUND KSUX.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
REACHING ERN NEBRASKA AROUND 18Z. WITH THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...EXPECT THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNIGN NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER MOST SW MN AND NW
IA...WITH AREAS FROM SUX TO MJQ HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN.
IN GENERAL...EXPECTING FROM A TENTH TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IN THIS
AREA...WITH LESS TO NORTHWEST...BUT COULD SEE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH WITH STRONGER STORMS. FARTHER WEST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY. WITH THE LACK OF COLD ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 80S...WITH MID 80S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...IT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

LINGERING TSRA ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. AFTER
FROPA...SKIES WILL CLEAR SOME ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL SEVERE WX DAY. LLVL JET IS
AROUND 40-45KTS ADVECTING A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT INTO SE SOUTH
DAKOTA. DECENT AMT OF SHEAR IS ALSO PRESENT ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SKY COVER WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
AMT OF INSOLATION TO CORRESPOND WITH BETTER SVR PARAMETERS AS WELL
AS SOMEWHAT OF A CAP. EITHER WAY...STRENGTH OF APPROACHING WAVE
AND RESULTANT SFC FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS...ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUES WITH A WEAK WAVEQUICKLY
PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF TSRA.

FOR TUES THROUGH THURS...ONLY CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THIS PD IS IN
SOUTHWEST MN ON TUES NIGHT AND MOST OF THE CWA ON WED NIGHT AS
YET ANOTHER FEW WEAK WAVES PASS THROUGH BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF
TSRA.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PD ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

SEVERAL ISSUES WITH TAFS NEXT 24 H. THE FIRST ISSUE IS THE LOW
CLODUS AROUND THE AREA TODAY. CIGS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN RISING ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. AS STRATOCU FORMS...MVFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE
PREDOMINATE. HOWEVER...AS THE SUNSETS EXPECT CIGS TO RISE BRIEFLY TO
MVF AT KSUX AND KFSD. THAT SHOULD ALSO OCCUR A LITTLE LATER AT
KHON...LIKELY TO 03Z. HOWEVER...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT
FOG TO FORM LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...HAVE NOT FAVORED ANY ONE
TAF WITH LOWER VSBYS BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR VSBYS LESS THAN
1SM AND CIGS BELOW 500 FT IS KHON WHERE WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS FOG WILL VERY SLOWLY BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING. EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS WILL BE TOWARD 15Z AROUND KHON
ALTHOUGH IF SURFACE TROUGH MOVES MORE SLOWLY THAN EXPECTED AND NW
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...FOG COULD LINGER THROUGH 15Z. FARTHER
EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTOMRS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 15Z...ESPECIALLY
AROUND KHON WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IFR CEILINGS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER



000
FXUS63 KFSD 282036
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
336 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN CONCERN ARE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST.

A STRONG DRY SLOT MOVED THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN SD...WESTERN IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST MN LATE THIS MORNING. WITH SOME HEATING OVER ERN
NEBRASKA...THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SUCH THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING EAST OF VERMILLION
TO MML LINE. ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE HEATING
AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE
ASCENT AND DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00Z OR SO. HOWEVER...AS THE
SUNSET...INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE AND SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE A STORM
TOWARD I29 THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST.

THE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER
THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES TO THE EAST. WITH RAIN EARLIER TODAY...THIS SETS UP A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A
SLOW INCREASE IN NW FLOW TOMORROW MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
I29...HAVE THE FOG DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. WITH THE FLOW
CONTINUING TO BE WEAK...THIS FOG COULD PERSIST LATER INTO THE NIGHT.
THE OTHER EFFECT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS THAT LOWS WILL BE
WARMER TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER 60S AROUND KHON TO THE UPPER 60S
AROUND KSUX.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
REACHING ERN NEBRASKA AROUND 18Z. WITH THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...EXPECT THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNIGN NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER MOST SW MN AND NW
IA...WITH AREAS FROM SUX TO MJQ HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN.
IN GENERAL...EXPECTING FROM A TENTH TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IN THIS
AREA...WITH LESS TO NORTHWEST...BUT COULD SEE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH WITH STRONGER STORMS. FARTHER WEST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY. WITH THE LACK OF COLD ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 80S...WITH MID 80S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...IT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

LINGERING TSRA ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. AFTER
FROPA...SKIES WILL CLEAR SOME ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL SEVERE WX DAY. LLVL JET IS
AROUND 40-45KTS ADVECTING A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT INTO SE SOUTH
DAKOTA. DECENT AMT OF SHEAR IS ALSO PRESENT ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SKY COVER WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
AMT OF INSOLATION TO CORRESPOND WITH BETTER SVR PARAMETERS AS WELL
AS SOMEWHAT OF A CAP. EITHER WAY...STRENGTH OF APPROACHING WAVE
AND RESULTANT SFC FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS...ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUES WITH A WEAK WAVEQUICKLY
PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF TSRA.

FOR TUES THROUGH THURS...ONLY CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THIS PD IS IN
SOUTHWEST MN ON TUES NIGHT AND MOST OF THE CWA ON WED NIGHT AS
YET ANOTHER FEW WEAK WAVES PASS THROUGH BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF
TSRA.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PD ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

SEVERAL ISSUES WITH TAFS NEXT 24 H. THE FIRST ISSUE IS THE LOW
CLODUS AROUND THE AREA TODAY. CIGS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN RISING ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. AS STRATOCU FORMS...MVFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE
PREDOMINATE. HOWEVER...AS THE SUNSETS EXPECT CIGS TO RISE BRIEFLY TO
MVF AT KSUX AND KFSD. THAT SHOULD ALSO OCCUR A LITTLE LATER AT
KHON...LIKELY TO 03Z. HOWEVER...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT
FOG TO FORM LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...HAVE NOT FAVORED ANY ONE
TAF WITH LOWER VSBYS BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR VSBYS LESS THAN
1SM AND CIGS BELOW 500 FT IS KHON WHERE WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS FOG WILL VERY SLOWLY BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING. EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS WILL BE TOWARD 15Z AROUND KHON
ALTHOUGH IF SURFACE TROUGH MOVES MORE SLOWLY THAN EXPECTED AND NW
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...FOG COULD LINGER THROUGH 15Z. FARTHER
EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTOMRS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 15Z...ESPECIALLY
AROUND KHON WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IFR CEILINGS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER



000
FXUS63 KFSD 282036
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
336 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN CONCERN ARE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST.

A STRONG DRY SLOT MOVED THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN SD...WESTERN IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST MN LATE THIS MORNING. WITH SOME HEATING OVER ERN
NEBRASKA...THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SUCH THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING EAST OF VERMILLION
TO MML LINE. ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE HEATING
AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE
ASCENT AND DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00Z OR SO. HOWEVER...AS THE
SUNSET...INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE AND SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE A STORM
TOWARD I29 THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST.

THE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER
THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES TO THE EAST. WITH RAIN EARLIER TODAY...THIS SETS UP A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A
SLOW INCREASE IN NW FLOW TOMORROW MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
I29...HAVE THE FOG DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. WITH THE FLOW
CONTINUING TO BE WEAK...THIS FOG COULD PERSIST LATER INTO THE NIGHT.
THE OTHER EFFECT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS THAT LOWS WILL BE
WARMER TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER 60S AROUND KHON TO THE UPPER 60S
AROUND KSUX.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
REACHING ERN NEBRASKA AROUND 18Z. WITH THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...EXPECT THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNIGN NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER MOST SW MN AND NW
IA...WITH AREAS FROM SUX TO MJQ HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN.
IN GENERAL...EXPECTING FROM A TENTH TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IN THIS
AREA...WITH LESS TO NORTHWEST...BUT COULD SEE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH WITH STRONGER STORMS. FARTHER WEST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY. WITH THE LACK OF COLD ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 80S...WITH MID 80S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...IT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

LINGERING TSRA ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. AFTER
FROPA...SKIES WILL CLEAR SOME ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL SEVERE WX DAY. LLVL JET IS
AROUND 40-45KTS ADVECTING A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT INTO SE SOUTH
DAKOTA. DECENT AMT OF SHEAR IS ALSO PRESENT ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SKY COVER WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
AMT OF INSOLATION TO CORRESPOND WITH BETTER SVR PARAMETERS AS WELL
AS SOMEWHAT OF A CAP. EITHER WAY...STRENGTH OF APPROACHING WAVE
AND RESULTANT SFC FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS...ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUES WITH A WEAK WAVEQUICKLY
PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF TSRA.

FOR TUES THROUGH THURS...ONLY CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THIS PD IS IN
SOUTHWEST MN ON TUES NIGHT AND MOST OF THE CWA ON WED NIGHT AS
YET ANOTHER FEW WEAK WAVES PASS THROUGH BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF
TSRA.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PD ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

SEVERAL ISSUES WITH TAFS NEXT 24 H. THE FIRST ISSUE IS THE LOW
CLODUS AROUND THE AREA TODAY. CIGS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN RISING ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. AS STRATOCU FORMS...MVFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE
PREDOMINATE. HOWEVER...AS THE SUNSETS EXPECT CIGS TO RISE BRIEFLY TO
MVF AT KSUX AND KFSD. THAT SHOULD ALSO OCCUR A LITTLE LATER AT
KHON...LIKELY TO 03Z. HOWEVER...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT
FOG TO FORM LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...HAVE NOT FAVORED ANY ONE
TAF WITH LOWER VSBYS BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR VSBYS LESS THAN
1SM AND CIGS BELOW 500 FT IS KHON WHERE WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS FOG WILL VERY SLOWLY BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING. EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS WILL BE TOWARD 15Z AROUND KHON
ALTHOUGH IF SURFACE TROUGH MOVES MORE SLOWLY THAN EXPECTED AND NW
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...FOG COULD LINGER THROUGH 15Z. FARTHER
EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTOMRS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 15Z...ESPECIALLY
AROUND KHON WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IFR CEILINGS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER



000
FXUS63 KABR 281726 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

OVERALL THE FORECAST WAS DOING FINE BUT NEEDED THE TYPICAL MINOR
UPDATES. BAND OF PCPN OVER MO VALLEY SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL APART
OF SHEAR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...MOSTLY EAST OF THE
JAMES VALLEY. AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE WITH EITHER BAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES OKAY FOR NOW BUT MAY BE A TAD
HIGH GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
RESPONSIBLE FOR DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. FAVORABLE JET PLACEMENT
RESULTING IN BROAD AREA OF RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW
LIGHTING STRIKES. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE CONTINUED
SLOWER...MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...AND LIGHTER QPF. SREF
PROBABILITIES ARE CLOSER TO THE QUARTER/HALF INCH RANGE THOUGH GFS
OMEGA VALUES TOPPING 20 MICROBARS SUGGEST A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS
COULD STILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF
STRIKES OF LIGHTNING. TEMPS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN. TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 60S...AND IF WE CAN GET A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT STILL SEE
TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S.

WEAK TROF WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...HOWEVER
GFS PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY WEAK LIFT AND INTERMITTENT MOISTURE
SATURATION WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO IN THE LONGER RANGE
SOLUTIONS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF DECENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SOMEWHERE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME WHEN A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE
WORKING THROUGH...AND THEN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY UNDER
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WHILE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 281726 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

OVERALL THE FORECAST WAS DOING FINE BUT NEEDED THE TYPICAL MINOR
UPDATES. BAND OF PCPN OVER MO VALLEY SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL APART
OF SHEAR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...MOSTLY EAST OF THE
JAMES VALLEY. AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE WITH EITHER BAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES OKAY FOR NOW BUT MAY BE A TAD
HIGH GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
RESPONSIBLE FOR DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. FAVORABLE JET PLACEMENT
RESULTING IN BROAD AREA OF RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW
LIGHTING STRIKES. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE CONTINUED
SLOWER...MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...AND LIGHTER QPF. SREF
PROBABILITIES ARE CLOSER TO THE QUARTER/HALF INCH RANGE THOUGH GFS
OMEGA VALUES TOPPING 20 MICROBARS SUGGEST A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS
COULD STILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF
STRIKES OF LIGHTNING. TEMPS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN. TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 60S...AND IF WE CAN GET A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT STILL SEE
TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S.

WEAK TROF WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...HOWEVER
GFS PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY WEAK LIFT AND INTERMITTENT MOISTURE
SATURATION WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO IN THE LONGER RANGE
SOLUTIONS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF DECENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SOMEWHERE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME WHEN A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE
WORKING THROUGH...AND THEN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY UNDER
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WHILE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 281726 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

OVERALL THE FORECAST WAS DOING FINE BUT NEEDED THE TYPICAL MINOR
UPDATES. BAND OF PCPN OVER MO VALLEY SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL APART
OF SHEAR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...MOSTLY EAST OF THE
JAMES VALLEY. AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE WITH EITHER BAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES OKAY FOR NOW BUT MAY BE A TAD
HIGH GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
RESPONSIBLE FOR DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. FAVORABLE JET PLACEMENT
RESULTING IN BROAD AREA OF RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW
LIGHTING STRIKES. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE CONTINUED
SLOWER...MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...AND LIGHTER QPF. SREF
PROBABILITIES ARE CLOSER TO THE QUARTER/HALF INCH RANGE THOUGH GFS
OMEGA VALUES TOPPING 20 MICROBARS SUGGEST A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS
COULD STILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF
STRIKES OF LIGHTNING. TEMPS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN. TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 60S...AND IF WE CAN GET A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT STILL SEE
TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S.

WEAK TROF WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...HOWEVER
GFS PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY WEAK LIFT AND INTERMITTENT MOISTURE
SATURATION WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO IN THE LONGER RANGE
SOLUTIONS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF DECENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SOMEWHERE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME WHEN A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE
WORKING THROUGH...AND THEN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY UNDER
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WHILE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 281726 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

OVERALL THE FORECAST WAS DOING FINE BUT NEEDED THE TYPICAL MINOR
UPDATES. BAND OF PCPN OVER MO VALLEY SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL APART
OF SHEAR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...MOSTLY EAST OF THE
JAMES VALLEY. AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE WITH EITHER BAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES OKAY FOR NOW BUT MAY BE A TAD
HIGH GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
RESPONSIBLE FOR DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. FAVORABLE JET PLACEMENT
RESULTING IN BROAD AREA OF RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW
LIGHTING STRIKES. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE CONTINUED
SLOWER...MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...AND LIGHTER QPF. SREF
PROBABILITIES ARE CLOSER TO THE QUARTER/HALF INCH RANGE THOUGH GFS
OMEGA VALUES TOPPING 20 MICROBARS SUGGEST A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS
COULD STILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF
STRIKES OF LIGHTNING. TEMPS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN. TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 60S...AND IF WE CAN GET A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT STILL SEE
TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S.

WEAK TROF WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...HOWEVER
GFS PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY WEAK LIFT AND INTERMITTENT MOISTURE
SATURATION WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO IN THE LONGER RANGE
SOLUTIONS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF DECENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SOMEWHERE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME WHEN A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE
WORKING THROUGH...AND THEN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY UNDER
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WHILE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KUNR 281703
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1103 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NEB...
WITH INVERTED TROF STRETCHING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD. HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NOW OVER WESTERN NEB...SLOWLY MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST. KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
CENTRAL SD TO FAR SOUTHWEST SD. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES
RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER NORTHEAST WY TO MAINLY CLOUDY EAST OF
THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL
EASTWARD SHIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO ADD SOME POPS
FOR THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD IF THE EASTWARD
TREND SLOWS DOWN A BIT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH TEMPS MIGHT
BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS...BUT WILL SEE HOW QUICKLY THEY
RISE OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 HOURS BEFORE MAKING ANYMORE ADJUSTMENTS.
UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT TO MAKE SHORT TERM CHANGES TO
POPS...CLOUD COVER...AND WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NRN
COLORADO/SRN WYOMING WITH A TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE AND
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. A LITTLE EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE
WRN SD PLAINS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER/STORM OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. THUS LEFT ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...DECIDED TO ADD SOME FOG FOR THE SD PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A WEAK
COOL FRONT INTO WESTERN SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 250-500J/KG
MLCAPE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPE/SHEAR FOR STORMS.
MOST OF THE 500-700MB MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER
COULD SEE SCATTERED STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NW...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK TO ADVECT THROUGH THE
REGION SAT-SUN...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE NE PAC TUE-WED FAVORED IN ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MEAN RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. MAIN FORECAST TREND IS A
QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE EXPECTED LONG WAVE TROUGH SAT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING SAT AFTERNOON WESTERN THIRD. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK ATTM.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SUPPORTING INCREASING LSA SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL WILL INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE SUPPORTING
A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN FA BY SAT AFTERNOON.
LL SE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOIST UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING PW OVER THE REGION...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
BEING AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODEL INDICATION FOR
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE OVER THE FAR NW ZONES...ESP NW
SD BY SAT EVENING...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT THERE.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NE ACROSS THE NW FA. TRAILING SFC TROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT LSA
SHOULD SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TS NW THIRD...WITH MORE
SCT/ISOLD ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL WILL SUPPORT STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER THE FA SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH BH/NE WY
TERRAIN INFLUENCES SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TS SW HALF OF
THE FA. BUMPED POPS UP OVER THE BH. OTHERWISE...ONE MORE WEAKER
WESTERLY FLOW IMPULSE STILL INDICATED IN FORECAST MODELS
MONDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM...ESP WITH DRY PROFILES. DRY CONDS
EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGING.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESP NW AREAS.
THE WARMEST DAY IN PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SAT...ESP ON THE SD PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR WARM CONDITIONS NEXT WED GIVEN
SW WAA FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL EJECTING NE PAC UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

-SHRA/ISOLATED -TSRA EAST OF A LINE FROM KMGB TO KCUT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA
COMPLETELY EARLY THIS EVENING. AREAS IFR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND ST/BR WILL SHIFT EAST ALSO. BEHIND
THESE FEATURES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON THE SD PLAINS LATER TONIGHT
WHERE LOCAL MVFR VSBYS DUE TO BR MAY OCCUR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 281703
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1103 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NEB...
WITH INVERTED TROF STRETCHING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD. HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NOW OVER WESTERN NEB...SLOWLY MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST. KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
CENTRAL SD TO FAR SOUTHWEST SD. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES
RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER NORTHEAST WY TO MAINLY CLOUDY EAST OF
THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL
EASTWARD SHIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO ADD SOME POPS
FOR THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD IF THE EASTWARD
TREND SLOWS DOWN A BIT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH TEMPS MIGHT
BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS...BUT WILL SEE HOW QUICKLY THEY
RISE OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 HOURS BEFORE MAKING ANYMORE ADJUSTMENTS.
UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT TO MAKE SHORT TERM CHANGES TO
POPS...CLOUD COVER...AND WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NRN
COLORADO/SRN WYOMING WITH A TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE AND
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. A LITTLE EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE
WRN SD PLAINS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER/STORM OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. THUS LEFT ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...DECIDED TO ADD SOME FOG FOR THE SD PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A WEAK
COOL FRONT INTO WESTERN SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 250-500J/KG
MLCAPE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPE/SHEAR FOR STORMS.
MOST OF THE 500-700MB MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER
COULD SEE SCATTERED STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NW...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK TO ADVECT THROUGH THE
REGION SAT-SUN...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE NE PAC TUE-WED FAVORED IN ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MEAN RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. MAIN FORECAST TREND IS A
QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE EXPECTED LONG WAVE TROUGH SAT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING SAT AFTERNOON WESTERN THIRD. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK ATTM.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SUPPORTING INCREASING LSA SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL WILL INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE SUPPORTING
A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN FA BY SAT AFTERNOON.
LL SE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOIST UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING PW OVER THE REGION...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
BEING AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODEL INDICATION FOR
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE OVER THE FAR NW ZONES...ESP NW
SD BY SAT EVENING...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT THERE.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NE ACROSS THE NW FA. TRAILING SFC TROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT LSA
SHOULD SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TS NW THIRD...WITH MORE
SCT/ISOLD ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL WILL SUPPORT STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER THE FA SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH BH/NE WY
TERRAIN INFLUENCES SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TS SW HALF OF
THE FA. BUMPED POPS UP OVER THE BH. OTHERWISE...ONE MORE WEAKER
WESTERLY FLOW IMPULSE STILL INDICATED IN FORECAST MODELS
MONDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM...ESP WITH DRY PROFILES. DRY CONDS
EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGING.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESP NW AREAS.
THE WARMEST DAY IN PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SAT...ESP ON THE SD PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR WARM CONDITIONS NEXT WED GIVEN
SW WAA FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL EJECTING NE PAC UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

-SHRA/ISOLATED -TSRA EAST OF A LINE FROM KMGB TO KCUT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA
COMPLETELY EARLY THIS EVENING. AREAS IFR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND ST/BR WILL SHIFT EAST ALSO. BEHIND
THESE FEATURES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON THE SD PLAINS LATER TONIGHT
WHERE LOCAL MVFR VSBYS DUE TO BR MAY OCCUR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 281551
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
951 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NEB...
WITH INVERTED TROF STRETCHING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD. HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NOW OVER WESTERN NEB...SLOWLY MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST. KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
CENTRAL SD TO FAR SOUTHWEST SD. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES
RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER NORTHEAST WY TO MAINLY CLOUDY EAST OF
THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL
EASTWARD SHIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO ADD SOME POPS
FOR THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD IF THE EASTWARD
TREND SLOWS DOWN A BIT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH TEMPS MIGHT
BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS...BUT WILL SEE HOW QUICKLY THEY
RISE OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 HOURS BEFORE MAKING ANYMORE ADJUSTMENTS.
UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT TO MAKE SHORT TERM CHANGES TO
POPS...CLOUD COVER...AND WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NRN
COLORADO/SRN WYOMING WITH A TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE AND
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. A LITTLE EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE
WRN SD PLAINS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER/STORM OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. THUS LEFT ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...DECIDED TO ADD SOME FOG FOR THE SD PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A WEAK
COOL FRONT INTO WESTERN SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 250-500J/KG
MLCAPE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPE/SHEAR FOR STORMS.
MOST OF THE 500-700MB MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER
COULD SEE SCATTERED STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NW...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK TO ADVECT THROUGH THE
REGION SAT-SUN...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE NE PAC TUE-WED FAVORED IN ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MEAN RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. MAIN FORECAST TREND IS A
QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE EXPECTED LONG WAVE TROUGH SAT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING SAT AFTERNOON WESTERN THIRD. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK ATTM.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SUPPORTING INCREASING LSA SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL WILL INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE SUPPORTING
A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN FA BY SAT AFTERNOON.
LL SE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOIST UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING PW OVER THE REGION...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
BEING AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODEL INDICATION FOR
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE OVER THE FAR NW ZONES...ESP NW
SD BY SAT EVENING...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT THERE.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NE ACROSS THE NW FA. TRAILING SFC TROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT LSA
SHOULD SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TS NW THIRD...WITH MORE
SCT/ISOLD ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL WILL SUPPORT STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER THE FA SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH BH/NE WY
TERRAIN INFLUENCES SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TS SW HALF OF
THE FA. BUMPED POPS UP OVER THE BH. OTHERWISE...ONE MORE WEAKER
WESTERLY FLOW IMPULSE STILL INDICATED IN FORECAST MODELS
MONDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM...ESP WITH DRY PROFILES. DRY CONDS
EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGING.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESP NW AREAS.
THE WARMEST DAY IN PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SAT...ESP ON THE SD PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR WARM CONDITIONS NEXT WED GIVEN
SW WAA FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL EJECTING NE PAC UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL WANE AND SHIFT EAST
THROUGH AFTERNOON...AFFECTING MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN FA...ESP
SCENTRAL SD. MVFR/IFR/LOCAL LIFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED THERE. ANY
IFR/LIFR CONDS WILL LIKELY TREND TO MVFR THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ON
THE SD PLAINS OVERNIGHT /ESP CENTRAL SD/...WITH LCL LIFR/VLIFR CONDS
POSSIBLE IN FOG. NOT EXPECTING RESTRICTIONS AT KRAP OR KGCC
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 281551
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
951 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NEB...
WITH INVERTED TROF STRETCHING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD. HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NOW OVER WESTERN NEB...SLOWLY MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST. KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
CENTRAL SD TO FAR SOUTHWEST SD. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES
RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER NORTHEAST WY TO MAINLY CLOUDY EAST OF
THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL
EASTWARD SHIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO ADD SOME POPS
FOR THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD IF THE EASTWARD
TREND SLOWS DOWN A BIT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH TEMPS MIGHT
BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS...BUT WILL SEE HOW QUICKLY THEY
RISE OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 HOURS BEFORE MAKING ANYMORE ADJUSTMENTS.
UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT TO MAKE SHORT TERM CHANGES TO
POPS...CLOUD COVER...AND WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NRN
COLORADO/SRN WYOMING WITH A TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE AND
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. A LITTLE EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE
WRN SD PLAINS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER/STORM OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. THUS LEFT ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...DECIDED TO ADD SOME FOG FOR THE SD PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A WEAK
COOL FRONT INTO WESTERN SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 250-500J/KG
MLCAPE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPE/SHEAR FOR STORMS.
MOST OF THE 500-700MB MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER
COULD SEE SCATTERED STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NW...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK TO ADVECT THROUGH THE
REGION SAT-SUN...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE NE PAC TUE-WED FAVORED IN ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MEAN RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. MAIN FORECAST TREND IS A
QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE EXPECTED LONG WAVE TROUGH SAT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING SAT AFTERNOON WESTERN THIRD. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK ATTM.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SUPPORTING INCREASING LSA SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL WILL INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE SUPPORTING
A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN FA BY SAT AFTERNOON.
LL SE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOIST UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING PW OVER THE REGION...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
BEING AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODEL INDICATION FOR
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE OVER THE FAR NW ZONES...ESP NW
SD BY SAT EVENING...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT THERE.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NE ACROSS THE NW FA. TRAILING SFC TROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT LSA
SHOULD SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TS NW THIRD...WITH MORE
SCT/ISOLD ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL WILL SUPPORT STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER THE FA SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH BH/NE WY
TERRAIN INFLUENCES SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TS SW HALF OF
THE FA. BUMPED POPS UP OVER THE BH. OTHERWISE...ONE MORE WEAKER
WESTERLY FLOW IMPULSE STILL INDICATED IN FORECAST MODELS
MONDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM...ESP WITH DRY PROFILES. DRY CONDS
EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGING.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESP NW AREAS.
THE WARMEST DAY IN PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SAT...ESP ON THE SD PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR WARM CONDITIONS NEXT WED GIVEN
SW WAA FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL EJECTING NE PAC UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL WANE AND SHIFT EAST
THROUGH AFTERNOON...AFFECTING MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN FA...ESP
SCENTRAL SD. MVFR/IFR/LOCAL LIFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED THERE. ANY
IFR/LIFR CONDS WILL LIKELY TREND TO MVFR THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ON
THE SD PLAINS OVERNIGHT /ESP CENTRAL SD/...WITH LCL LIFR/VLIFR CONDS
POSSIBLE IN FOG. NOT EXPECTING RESTRICTIONS AT KRAP OR KGCC
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC






000
FXUS63 KABR 281544 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1044 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERALL THE FORECAST WAS DOING FINE BUT NEEDED THE TYPICAL MINOR
UPDATES. BAND OF PCPN OVER MO VALLEY SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL APART
OF SHEAR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...MOSTLY EAST OF THE
JAMES VALLEY. AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE WITH EITHER BAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES OKAY FOR NOW BUT MAY BE A TAD
HIGH GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER THATS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESPONSIBLE
FOR DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. FAVORABLE JET PLACEMENT RESULTING IN
BROAD AREA OF RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW LIGHTING STRIKES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE CONTINUED SLOWER...MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...AND LIGHTER QPF. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE CLOSER TO THE
QUARTER/HALF INCH RANGE THOUGH GFS OMEGA VALUES TOPPING 20
MICROBARS SUGGEST A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD STILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF STRIKES OF LIGHTNING. TEMPS
TODAY WILL STRUGGLE WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S...AND IF WE CAN GET A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON MIGHT STILL SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S.

WEAK TROF WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...HOWEVER
GFS PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY WEAK LIFT AND INTERMITTENT MOISTURE
SATURATION WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO IN THE LONGER RANGE
SOLUTIONS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF DECENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SOMEWHERE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME WHEN A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE
WORKING THROUGH...AND THEN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY UNDER
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WHILE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

DON`T EXPECT A WHOLE LOT OF VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WHILE THIS LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING ACROSS THE REGION SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD TODAY. PLENTY OF STRATUS...RAINS SHOWERS...EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AND AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE WILL BE
AROUND...INFLUENCING ALL FOUR TERMINALS WITH VARIOUS FORMS OF SUB-
VFR FLYING WEATHER CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN IMPROVING
LATER TONIGHT AFTER SUNDOWN...BUT CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
MAY JUST END UP PROMOTING HALF-WAY DECENT RADIATIONAL FOG
CONDITIONS BY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 281152 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
652 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESPONSIBLE
FOR DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. FAVORABLE JET PLACEMENT RESULTING IN
BROAD AREA OF RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW LIGHTING STRIKES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE CONTINUED SLOWER...MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...AND LIGHTER QPF. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE CLOSER TO THE
QUARTER/HALF INCH RANGE THOUGH GFS OMEGA VALUES TOPPING 20
MICROBARS SUGGEST A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD STILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF STRIKES OF LIGHTNING. TEMPS
TODAY WILL STRUGGLE WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S...AND IF WE CAN GET A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON MIGHT STILL SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S.

WEAK TROF WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...HOWEVER
GFS PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY WEAK LIFT AND INTERMITTENT MOISTURE
SATURATION WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO IN THE LONGER RANGE
SOLUTIONS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF DECENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SOMEWHERE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME WHEN A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE
WORKING THROUGH...AND THEN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY UNDER
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WHILE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL.


&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

DON`T EXPECT A WHOLE LOT OF VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WHILE THIS LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING ACROSS THE REGION SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD TODAY. PLENTY OF STRATUS...RAINS SHOWERS...EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AND AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE WILL BE
AROUND...INFLUENCING ALL FOUR TERMINALS WITH VARIOUS FORMS OF SUB-
VFR FLYING WEATHER CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN IMPROVING
LATER TONIGHT AFTER SUNDOWN...BUT CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
MAY JUST END UP PROMOTING HALF-WAY DECENT RADIATIONAL FOG
CONDITIONS BY LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 281152 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
652 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESPONSIBLE
FOR DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. FAVORABLE JET PLACEMENT RESULTING IN
BROAD AREA OF RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW LIGHTING STRIKES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE CONTINUED SLOWER...MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...AND LIGHTER QPF. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE CLOSER TO THE
QUARTER/HALF INCH RANGE THOUGH GFS OMEGA VALUES TOPPING 20
MICROBARS SUGGEST A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD STILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF STRIKES OF LIGHTNING. TEMPS
TODAY WILL STRUGGLE WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S...AND IF WE CAN GET A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON MIGHT STILL SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S.

WEAK TROF WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...HOWEVER
GFS PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY WEAK LIFT AND INTERMITTENT MOISTURE
SATURATION WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO IN THE LONGER RANGE
SOLUTIONS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF DECENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SOMEWHERE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME WHEN A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE
WORKING THROUGH...AND THEN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY UNDER
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WHILE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL.


&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

DON`T EXPECT A WHOLE LOT OF VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WHILE THIS LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING ACROSS THE REGION SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD TODAY. PLENTY OF STRATUS...RAINS SHOWERS...EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AND AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE WILL BE
AROUND...INFLUENCING ALL FOUR TERMINALS WITH VARIOUS FORMS OF SUB-
VFR FLYING WEATHER CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN IMPROVING
LATER TONIGHT AFTER SUNDOWN...BUT CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
MAY JUST END UP PROMOTING HALF-WAY DECENT RADIATIONAL FOG
CONDITIONS BY LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 281152 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
652 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESPONSIBLE
FOR DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. FAVORABLE JET PLACEMENT RESULTING IN
BROAD AREA OF RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW LIGHTING STRIKES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE CONTINUED SLOWER...MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...AND LIGHTER QPF. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE CLOSER TO THE
QUARTER/HALF INCH RANGE THOUGH GFS OMEGA VALUES TOPPING 20
MICROBARS SUGGEST A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD STILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF STRIKES OF LIGHTNING. TEMPS
TODAY WILL STRUGGLE WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S...AND IF WE CAN GET A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON MIGHT STILL SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S.

WEAK TROF WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...HOWEVER
GFS PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY WEAK LIFT AND INTERMITTENT MOISTURE
SATURATION WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO IN THE LONGER RANGE
SOLUTIONS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF DECENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SOMEWHERE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME WHEN A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE
WORKING THROUGH...AND THEN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY UNDER
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WHILE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL.


&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

DON`T EXPECT A WHOLE LOT OF VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WHILE THIS LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING ACROSS THE REGION SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD TODAY. PLENTY OF STRATUS...RAINS SHOWERS...EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AND AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE WILL BE
AROUND...INFLUENCING ALL FOUR TERMINALS WITH VARIOUS FORMS OF SUB-
VFR FLYING WEATHER CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN IMPROVING
LATER TONIGHT AFTER SUNDOWN...BUT CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
MAY JUST END UP PROMOTING HALF-WAY DECENT RADIATIONAL FOG
CONDITIONS BY LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 281152 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
652 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESPONSIBLE
FOR DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. FAVORABLE JET PLACEMENT RESULTING IN
BROAD AREA OF RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW LIGHTING STRIKES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE CONTINUED SLOWER...MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...AND LIGHTER QPF. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE CLOSER TO THE
QUARTER/HALF INCH RANGE THOUGH GFS OMEGA VALUES TOPPING 20
MICROBARS SUGGEST A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD STILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF STRIKES OF LIGHTNING. TEMPS
TODAY WILL STRUGGLE WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S...AND IF WE CAN GET A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON MIGHT STILL SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S.

WEAK TROF WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...HOWEVER
GFS PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY WEAK LIFT AND INTERMITTENT MOISTURE
SATURATION WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO IN THE LONGER RANGE
SOLUTIONS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF DECENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SOMEWHERE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME WHEN A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE
WORKING THROUGH...AND THEN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY UNDER
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WHILE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL.


&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

DON`T EXPECT A WHOLE LOT OF VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WHILE THIS LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING ACROSS THE REGION SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD TODAY. PLENTY OF STRATUS...RAINS SHOWERS...EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AND AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE WILL BE
AROUND...INFLUENCING ALL FOUR TERMINALS WITH VARIOUS FORMS OF SUB-
VFR FLYING WEATHER CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN IMPROVING
LATER TONIGHT AFTER SUNDOWN...BUT CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
MAY JUST END UP PROMOTING HALF-WAY DECENT RADIATIONAL FOG
CONDITIONS BY LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 281145
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
645 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNFOLD NOTORIOUSLY SLOWER THAN MODELS SUGGEST.
SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT A BAD STARTING POINT...
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY 850 HPA WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION.
MAINLY FOLLOWED THIS FOR POP PLACEMENT...HOWEVER... FORCING
APPEARS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICK AND SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THE POPS
COMPARED TO THE MODELS ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT SHOULD EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN THE
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHEARING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF FORCING ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE SOME MID RANGE POPS FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE MILDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAIN FEATURE WORKING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIGURATION BEGINS TO TAKE ON MORE OF A
POSITIVE TILT AS IT WORKS EASTWARD IN SOLUTIONS...PERHAPS TOO MUCH
SO...BUT EVEN DESPITE A WEAKENING CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE IN THE
MID LEVELS...THERE REMAINS ENOUGH QG FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE AXIS ALONG WITH PV ADVECTION AND A NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY UNSTABLE
LAPSE RATE TO SUGGEST A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LIMITED DIURNAL CYCLE AIDS IN
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. DECENT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AS WELL SO WOULD
EXPECT EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS...AND WHILE PERHAPS A
HALF INCH OR SO ON THE AVERAGE...SOME AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH OR
A BIT MORE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF A SPENCER TO SIOUX CITY LINE.
WITH SUCH A WEAK SHEAR PROFILE AND INSTABILITY HEDGING MORE TOWARD
THE MOIST NEUTRAL SIDE THAN GREATLY UNSTABLE...DO NOT SEE SEVERE
STORMS AS A LARGE THREAT...PERHAPS IN ISOLATED WIND OR BRIEF
SPINUP IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST...DEPENDING FULLY ON WHETHER CAN GET
ANY DESTABILIZING OF THE LOWEST LAYER.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...HEATING OF THE DAY A BIT MORE FAVORED AND
WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO DESTABILIZE SOMEWHAT MORE AFTER A LITTLE
MORE HOSTILITY TOWARD LIFT EARLIER IN THE DAY. BY LATER
AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING A NARROW CAPE PROFILE AND
SECONDARY CONVERGENCE AXIS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO PERHAPS
GENERATE A COUPLE OF ROGUE LATE DAY STORMS...WITH THE THREAT
TRAVERSING MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWA ALONG WITH THE WEAK SECONDARY
WAVE OVERNIGHT AND VERY EARLY ON SATURDAY. REMAINDER OF SATURDAY
SHOULD BE QUIET WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING.

WITH LITTLE PUSH TO FLUSHING OUT MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS...
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY IN THE EAST...LIKELY
ONLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHILE PARTIAL CLEARING
IN THE WEST AND LOCATION AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY CONVERGENCE PUSHES
INTO THE MID 80S. BY SATURDAY...SHOULD END UP A BIT WARMER MOST
AREAS...EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY EAST OF SOUTH WINDS AT THE
SURFACE.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GET ANOTHER BOOST TO LOWER TO MID LEVEL THETA
E ADVECTION AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. LEADING WEAK PV IMPULSE/DIV Q SWINGS EAST/NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...BUT HARD TO PUSH MUCH PAST A
MODEST CHANCE POP FOR SD CWA...AND HIGHEST IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...
WITH CLEAR LACK OF A BOUNDARY.

SUNDAY IS PROBABLY THE MOST INTERESTING DAY OF THE LONGER RANGE
PERIOD WITH NEXT STRONG JET DIVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
MAKING A SHARP TURN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL DEVELOPMENT
OF OUTFLOW TYPE JET TO NORTH...ENHANCING THE DIVERGENCE
SIGNATURE...PROBABLY MORE OF A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THAN DRIVER OF DEVELOPMENT. NONETHELESS...IS A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DEPENDING ON THE WAVE TIMING...WHICH VARIES FROM GFS A BIT FASTER
TO ECMWF A BIT SLOWER...MAY TIME OUT TO COINCIDE WITH DIURNAL
CYCLE...AS DEEPLY CONVERGENT BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA. MUCH
STRONGER WINDS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT AND DISTRIBUTED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PROFILE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN DESIRED
FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE THAT THERE
WILL BE A MENTIONABLE SEVERE THREAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AT THIS POINT LOOKING FROM I 29 AND EASTWARD.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD PICK UP THE PACE WITH ORGANIZED SYSTEM
DEVELOPING AND BE WELL CLEAR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...LEAVING A QUIET
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COULD SEE A LITTLE RETURN FLOW ACTIVITY
AS ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE ZIPS THROUGH. OVERALL...WILL BE IN A
TRANSITION BACK TOWARD WESTERN TROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE BY
MID TO LATE WEEK...MAKING FOR STRONGER RETURN FLOW BY WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM JUST BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS LIKELY TO START JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY
WEEK...AND MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING LEADING TO IFR CONDITIONS. VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS...HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WORKING
THOUGH THE AREA. COLD FRONT BECOMES ORPHANED...AND MAY NOT MAKE IT
TO SIOUX FALLS/SIOUX CITY BEFORE STALLING OUT. MAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. HINTED AT THE POTENTIAL...BUT ONLY PUT A CEILING AT KSUX
WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 281145
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
645 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNFOLD NOTORIOUSLY SLOWER THAN MODELS SUGGEST.
SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT A BAD STARTING POINT...
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY 850 HPA WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION.
MAINLY FOLLOWED THIS FOR POP PLACEMENT...HOWEVER... FORCING
APPEARS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICK AND SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THE POPS
COMPARED TO THE MODELS ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT SHOULD EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN THE
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHEARING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF FORCING ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE SOME MID RANGE POPS FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE MILDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAIN FEATURE WORKING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIGURATION BEGINS TO TAKE ON MORE OF A
POSITIVE TILT AS IT WORKS EASTWARD IN SOLUTIONS...PERHAPS TOO MUCH
SO...BUT EVEN DESPITE A WEAKENING CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE IN THE
MID LEVELS...THERE REMAINS ENOUGH QG FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE AXIS ALONG WITH PV ADVECTION AND A NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY UNSTABLE
LAPSE RATE TO SUGGEST A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LIMITED DIURNAL CYCLE AIDS IN
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. DECENT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AS WELL SO WOULD
EXPECT EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS...AND WHILE PERHAPS A
HALF INCH OR SO ON THE AVERAGE...SOME AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH OR
A BIT MORE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF A SPENCER TO SIOUX CITY LINE.
WITH SUCH A WEAK SHEAR PROFILE AND INSTABILITY HEDGING MORE TOWARD
THE MOIST NEUTRAL SIDE THAN GREATLY UNSTABLE...DO NOT SEE SEVERE
STORMS AS A LARGE THREAT...PERHAPS IN ISOLATED WIND OR BRIEF
SPINUP IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST...DEPENDING FULLY ON WHETHER CAN GET
ANY DESTABILIZING OF THE LOWEST LAYER.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...HEATING OF THE DAY A BIT MORE FAVORED AND
WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO DESTABILIZE SOMEWHAT MORE AFTER A LITTLE
MORE HOSTILITY TOWARD LIFT EARLIER IN THE DAY. BY LATER
AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING A NARROW CAPE PROFILE AND
SECONDARY CONVERGENCE AXIS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO PERHAPS
GENERATE A COUPLE OF ROGUE LATE DAY STORMS...WITH THE THREAT
TRAVERSING MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWA ALONG WITH THE WEAK SECONDARY
WAVE OVERNIGHT AND VERY EARLY ON SATURDAY. REMAINDER OF SATURDAY
SHOULD BE QUIET WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING.

WITH LITTLE PUSH TO FLUSHING OUT MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS...
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY IN THE EAST...LIKELY
ONLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHILE PARTIAL CLEARING
IN THE WEST AND LOCATION AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY CONVERGENCE PUSHES
INTO THE MID 80S. BY SATURDAY...SHOULD END UP A BIT WARMER MOST
AREAS...EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY EAST OF SOUTH WINDS AT THE
SURFACE.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GET ANOTHER BOOST TO LOWER TO MID LEVEL THETA
E ADVECTION AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. LEADING WEAK PV IMPULSE/DIV Q SWINGS EAST/NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...BUT HARD TO PUSH MUCH PAST A
MODEST CHANCE POP FOR SD CWA...AND HIGHEST IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...
WITH CLEAR LACK OF A BOUNDARY.

SUNDAY IS PROBABLY THE MOST INTERESTING DAY OF THE LONGER RANGE
PERIOD WITH NEXT STRONG JET DIVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
MAKING A SHARP TURN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL DEVELOPMENT
OF OUTFLOW TYPE JET TO NORTH...ENHANCING THE DIVERGENCE
SIGNATURE...PROBABLY MORE OF A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THAN DRIVER OF DEVELOPMENT. NONETHELESS...IS A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DEPENDING ON THE WAVE TIMING...WHICH VARIES FROM GFS A BIT FASTER
TO ECMWF A BIT SLOWER...MAY TIME OUT TO COINCIDE WITH DIURNAL
CYCLE...AS DEEPLY CONVERGENT BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA. MUCH
STRONGER WINDS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT AND DISTRIBUTED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PROFILE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN DESIRED
FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE THAT THERE
WILL BE A MENTIONABLE SEVERE THREAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AT THIS POINT LOOKING FROM I 29 AND EASTWARD.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD PICK UP THE PACE WITH ORGANIZED SYSTEM
DEVELOPING AND BE WELL CLEAR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...LEAVING A QUIET
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COULD SEE A LITTLE RETURN FLOW ACTIVITY
AS ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE ZIPS THROUGH. OVERALL...WILL BE IN A
TRANSITION BACK TOWARD WESTERN TROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE BY
MID TO LATE WEEK...MAKING FOR STRONGER RETURN FLOW BY WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM JUST BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS LIKELY TO START JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY
WEEK...AND MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING LEADING TO IFR CONDITIONS. VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS...HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WORKING
THOUGH THE AREA. COLD FRONT BECOMES ORPHANED...AND MAY NOT MAKE IT
TO SIOUX FALLS/SIOUX CITY BEFORE STALLING OUT. MAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. HINTED AT THE POTENTIAL...BUT ONLY PUT A CEILING AT KSUX
WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KUNR 281131
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
531 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NRN
COLORADO/SRN WYOMING WITH A TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE AND
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. A LITTLE EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE
WRN SD PLAINS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER/STORM OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. THUS LEFT ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...DECIDED TO ADD SOME FOG FOR THE SD PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A WEAK
COOL FRONT INTO WESTERN SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 250-500J/KG
MLCAPE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPE/SHEAR FOR STORMS.
MOST OF THE 500-700MB MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER
COULD SEE SCATTERED STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NW...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK TO ADVECT THROUGH THE
REGION SAT-SUN...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE NE PAC TUE-WED FAVORED IN ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MEAN RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. MAIN FORECAST TREND IS A
QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE EXPECTED LONG WAVE TROUGH SAT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING SAT AFTERNOON WESTERN THIRD. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK ATTM.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SUPPORTING INCREASING LSA SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL WILL INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE SUPPORTING
A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN FA BY SAT AFTERNOON.
LL SE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOIST UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING PW OVER THE REGION...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
BEING AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODEL INDICATION FOR
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE OVER THE FAR NW ZONES...ESP NW
SD BY SAT EVENING...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT THERE.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NE ACROSS THE NW FA. TRAILING SFC TROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT LSA
SHOULD SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TS NW THIRD...WITH MORE
SCT/ISOLD ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL WILL SUPPORT STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER THE FA SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH BH/NE WY
TERRAIN INFLUENCES SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TS SW HALF OF
THE FA. BUMPED POPS UP OVER THE BH. OTHERWISE...ONE MORE WEAKER
WESTERLY FLOW IMPULSE STILL INDICATED IN FORECAST MODELS
MONDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM...ESP WITH DRY PROFILES. DRY CONDS
EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGING.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESP NW AREAS.
THE WARMEST DAY IN PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SAT...ESP ON THE SD PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR WARM CONDITIONS NEXT WED GIVEN
SW WAA FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL EJECTING NE PAC UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL WANE AND SHIFT EAST
THROUGH AFTERNOON...AFFECTING MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN FA...ESP
SCENTRAL SD. MVFR/IFR/LOCAL LIFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED THERE. ANY
IFR/LIFR CONDS WILL LIKELY TREND TO MVFR THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ON
THE SD PLAINS OVERNIGHT /ESP CENTRAL SD/...WITH LCL LIFR/VLIFR CONDS
POSSIBLE IN FOG. NOT EXPECTING RESTRICTIONS AT KRAP OR KGCC
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 281131
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
531 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NRN
COLORADO/SRN WYOMING WITH A TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE AND
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. A LITTLE EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE
WRN SD PLAINS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER/STORM OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. THUS LEFT ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...DECIDED TO ADD SOME FOG FOR THE SD PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A WEAK
COOL FRONT INTO WESTERN SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 250-500J/KG
MLCAPE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPE/SHEAR FOR STORMS.
MOST OF THE 500-700MB MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER
COULD SEE SCATTERED STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NW...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK TO ADVECT THROUGH THE
REGION SAT-SUN...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE NE PAC TUE-WED FAVORED IN ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MEAN RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. MAIN FORECAST TREND IS A
QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE EXPECTED LONG WAVE TROUGH SAT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING SAT AFTERNOON WESTERN THIRD. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK ATTM.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SUPPORTING INCREASING LSA SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL WILL INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE SUPPORTING
A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN FA BY SAT AFTERNOON.
LL SE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOIST UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING PW OVER THE REGION...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
BEING AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODEL INDICATION FOR
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE OVER THE FAR NW ZONES...ESP NW
SD BY SAT EVENING...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT THERE.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NE ACROSS THE NW FA. TRAILING SFC TROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT LSA
SHOULD SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TS NW THIRD...WITH MORE
SCT/ISOLD ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL WILL SUPPORT STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER THE FA SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH BH/NE WY
TERRAIN INFLUENCES SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TS SW HALF OF
THE FA. BUMPED POPS UP OVER THE BH. OTHERWISE...ONE MORE WEAKER
WESTERLY FLOW IMPULSE STILL INDICATED IN FORECAST MODELS
MONDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM...ESP WITH DRY PROFILES. DRY CONDS
EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGING.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESP NW AREAS.
THE WARMEST DAY IN PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SAT...ESP ON THE SD PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR WARM CONDITIONS NEXT WED GIVEN
SW WAA FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL EJECTING NE PAC UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL WANE AND SHIFT EAST
THROUGH AFTERNOON...AFFECTING MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN FA...ESP
SCENTRAL SD. MVFR/IFR/LOCAL LIFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED THERE. ANY
IFR/LIFR CONDS WILL LIKELY TREND TO MVFR THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ON
THE SD PLAINS OVERNIGHT /ESP CENTRAL SD/...WITH LCL LIFR/VLIFR CONDS
POSSIBLE IN FOG. NOT EXPECTING RESTRICTIONS AT KRAP OR KGCC
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 281131
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
531 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NRN
COLORADO/SRN WYOMING WITH A TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE AND
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. A LITTLE EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE
WRN SD PLAINS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER/STORM OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. THUS LEFT ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...DECIDED TO ADD SOME FOG FOR THE SD PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A WEAK
COOL FRONT INTO WESTERN SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 250-500J/KG
MLCAPE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPE/SHEAR FOR STORMS.
MOST OF THE 500-700MB MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER
COULD SEE SCATTERED STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NW...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK TO ADVECT THROUGH THE
REGION SAT-SUN...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE NE PAC TUE-WED FAVORED IN ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MEAN RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. MAIN FORECAST TREND IS A
QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE EXPECTED LONG WAVE TROUGH SAT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING SAT AFTERNOON WESTERN THIRD. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK ATTM.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SUPPORTING INCREASING LSA SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL WILL INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE SUPPORTING
A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN FA BY SAT AFTERNOON.
LL SE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOIST UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING PW OVER THE REGION...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
BEING AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODEL INDICATION FOR
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE OVER THE FAR NW ZONES...ESP NW
SD BY SAT EVENING...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT THERE.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NE ACROSS THE NW FA. TRAILING SFC TROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT LSA
SHOULD SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TS NW THIRD...WITH MORE
SCT/ISOLD ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL WILL SUPPORT STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER THE FA SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH BH/NE WY
TERRAIN INFLUENCES SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TS SW HALF OF
THE FA. BUMPED POPS UP OVER THE BH. OTHERWISE...ONE MORE WEAKER
WESTERLY FLOW IMPULSE STILL INDICATED IN FORECAST MODELS
MONDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM...ESP WITH DRY PROFILES. DRY CONDS
EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGING.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESP NW AREAS.
THE WARMEST DAY IN PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SAT...ESP ON THE SD PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR WARM CONDITIONS NEXT WED GIVEN
SW WAA FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL EJECTING NE PAC UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL WANE AND SHIFT EAST
THROUGH AFTERNOON...AFFECTING MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN FA...ESP
SCENTRAL SD. MVFR/IFR/LOCAL LIFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED THERE. ANY
IFR/LIFR CONDS WILL LIKELY TREND TO MVFR THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ON
THE SD PLAINS OVERNIGHT /ESP CENTRAL SD/...WITH LCL LIFR/VLIFR CONDS
POSSIBLE IN FOG. NOT EXPECTING RESTRICTIONS AT KRAP OR KGCC
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 281131
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
531 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NRN
COLORADO/SRN WYOMING WITH A TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE AND
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. A LITTLE EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE
WRN SD PLAINS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER/STORM OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. THUS LEFT ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...DECIDED TO ADD SOME FOG FOR THE SD PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A WEAK
COOL FRONT INTO WESTERN SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 250-500J/KG
MLCAPE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPE/SHEAR FOR STORMS.
MOST OF THE 500-700MB MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER
COULD SEE SCATTERED STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NW...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK TO ADVECT THROUGH THE
REGION SAT-SUN...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE NE PAC TUE-WED FAVORED IN ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MEAN RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. MAIN FORECAST TREND IS A
QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE EXPECTED LONG WAVE TROUGH SAT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING SAT AFTERNOON WESTERN THIRD. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK ATTM.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SUPPORTING INCREASING LSA SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL WILL INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE SUPPORTING
A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN FA BY SAT AFTERNOON.
LL SE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOIST UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING PW OVER THE REGION...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
BEING AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODEL INDICATION FOR
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE OVER THE FAR NW ZONES...ESP NW
SD BY SAT EVENING...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT THERE.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NE ACROSS THE NW FA. TRAILING SFC TROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT LSA
SHOULD SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TS NW THIRD...WITH MORE
SCT/ISOLD ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL WILL SUPPORT STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER THE FA SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH BH/NE WY
TERRAIN INFLUENCES SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TS SW HALF OF
THE FA. BUMPED POPS UP OVER THE BH. OTHERWISE...ONE MORE WEAKER
WESTERLY FLOW IMPULSE STILL INDICATED IN FORECAST MODELS
MONDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM...ESP WITH DRY PROFILES. DRY CONDS
EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGING.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESP NW AREAS.
THE WARMEST DAY IN PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SAT...ESP ON THE SD PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR WARM CONDITIONS NEXT WED GIVEN
SW WAA FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL EJECTING NE PAC UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL WANE AND SHIFT EAST
THROUGH AFTERNOON...AFFECTING MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN FA...ESP
SCENTRAL SD. MVFR/IFR/LOCAL LIFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED THERE. ANY
IFR/LIFR CONDS WILL LIKELY TREND TO MVFR THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ON
THE SD PLAINS OVERNIGHT /ESP CENTRAL SD/...WITH LCL LIFR/VLIFR CONDS
POSSIBLE IN FOG. NOT EXPECTING RESTRICTIONS AT KRAP OR KGCC
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KFSD 280944
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
444 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNFOLD NOTORIOUSLY SLOWER THAN MODELS SUGGEST.
SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT A BAD STARTING POINT...
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY 850 HPA WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION.
MAINLY FOLLOWED THIS FOR POP PLACEMENT...HOWEVER... FORCING
APPEARS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICK AND SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THE POPS
COMPARED TO THE MODELS ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT SHOULD EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN THE
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHEARING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF FORCING ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE SOME MID RANGE POPS FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE MILDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAIN FEATURE WORKING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIGURATION BEGINS TO TAKE ON MORE OF A
POSITIVE TILT AS IT WORKS EASTWARD IN SOLUTIONS...PERHAPS TOO MUCH
SO...BUT EVEN DESPITE A WEAKENING CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE IN THE
MID LEVELS...THERE REMAINS ENOUGH QG FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE AXIS ALONG WITH PV ADVECTION AND A NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY UNSTABLE
LAPSE RATE TO SUGGEST A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LIMITED DIURNAL CYCLE AIDS IN
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. DECENT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AS WELL SO WOULD
EXPECT EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS...AND WHILE PERHAPS A
HALF INCH OR SO ON THE AVERAGE...SOME AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH OR
A BIT MORE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF A SPENCER TO SIOUX CITY LINE.
WITH SUCH A WEAK SHEAR PROFILE AND INSTABILITY HEDGING MORE TOWARD
THE MOIST NEUTRAL SIDE THAN GREATLY UNSTABLE...DO NOT SEE SEVERE
STORMS AS A LARGE THREAT...PERHAPS IN ISOLATED WIND OR BRIEF
SPINUP IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST...DEPENDING FULLY ON WHETHER CAN GET
ANY DESTABILIZING OF THE LOWEST LAYER.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...HEATING OF THE DAY A BIT MORE FAVORED AND
WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO DESTABILIZE SOMEWHAT MORE AFTER A LITTLE
MORE HOSTILITY TOWARD LIFT EARLIER IN THE DAY. BY LATER
AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING A NARROW CAPE PROFILE AND
SECONDARY CONVERGENCE AXIS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO PERHAPS
GENERATE A COUPLE OF ROGUE LATE DAY STORMS...WITH THE THREAT
TRAVERSING MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWA ALONG WITH THE WEAK SECONDARY
WAVE OVERNIGHT AND VERY EARLY ON SATURDAY. REMAINDER OF SATURDAY
SHOULD BE QUIET WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING.

WITH LITTLE PUSH TO FLUSHING OUT MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS...
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY IN THE EAST...LIKELY
ONLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHILE PARTIAL CLEARING
IN THE WEST AND LOCATION AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY CONVERGENCE PUSHES
INTO THE MID 80S. BY SATURDAY...SHOULD END UP A BIT WARMER MOST
AREAS...EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY EAST OF SOUTH WINDS AT THE
SURFACE.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GET ANOTHER BOOST TO LOWER TO MID LEVEL THETA
E ADVECTION AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. LEADING WEAK PV IMPULSE/DIV Q SWINGS EAST/NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...BUT HARD TO PUSH MUCH PAST A
MODEST CHANCE POP FOR SD CWA...AND HIGHEST IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...
WITH CLEAR LACK OF A BOUNDARY.

SUNDAY IS PROBABLY THE MOST INTERESTING DAY OF THE LONGER RANGE
PERIOD WITH NEXT STRONG JET DIVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
MAKING A SHARP TURN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL DEVELOPMENT
OF OUTFLOW TYPE JET TO NORTH...ENHANCING THE DIVERGENCE
SIGNATURE...PROBABLY MORE OF A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THAN DRIVER OF DEVELOPMENT. NONETHELESS...IS A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DEPENDING ON THE WAVE TIMING...WHICH VARIES FROM GFS A BIT FASTER
TO ECMWF A BIT SLOWER...MAY TIME OUT TO COINCIDE WITH DIURNAL
CYCLE...AS DEEPLY CONVERGENT BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA. MUCH
STRONGER WINDS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT AND DISTRIBUTED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PROFILE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN DESIRED
FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE THAT THERE
WILL BE A MENTIONABLE SEVERE THREAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AT THIS POINT LOOKING FROM I 29 AND EASTWARD.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD PICK UP THE PACE WITH ORGANIZED SYSTEM
DEVELOPING AND BE WELL CLEAR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...LEAVING A QUIET
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COULD SEE A LITTLE RETURN FLOW ACTIVITY
AS ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE ZIPS THROUGH. OVERALL...WILL BE IN A
TRANSITION BACK TOWARD WESTERN TROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE BY
MID TO LATE WEEK...MAKING FOR STRONGER RETURN FLOW BY WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM JUST BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS LIKELY TO START JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY
WEEK...AND MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR AND IFR RANGE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THIS
RAIN AND LOWER CIGS...EXACT TIMING AND HEIGHT OF CLOUDS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY REBOUND TOMORROW...BUT PROBABLY NOT
REALLY IMPROVING UNTIL THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY VERY WELL LINGER AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 280944
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
444 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNFOLD NOTORIOUSLY SLOWER THAN MODELS SUGGEST.
SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT A BAD STARTING POINT...
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY 850 HPA WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION.
MAINLY FOLLOWED THIS FOR POP PLACEMENT...HOWEVER... FORCING
APPEARS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICK AND SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THE POPS
COMPARED TO THE MODELS ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT SHOULD EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN THE
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHEARING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF FORCING ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE SOME MID RANGE POPS FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE MILDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAIN FEATURE WORKING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIGURATION BEGINS TO TAKE ON MORE OF A
POSITIVE TILT AS IT WORKS EASTWARD IN SOLUTIONS...PERHAPS TOO MUCH
SO...BUT EVEN DESPITE A WEAKENING CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE IN THE
MID LEVELS...THERE REMAINS ENOUGH QG FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE AXIS ALONG WITH PV ADVECTION AND A NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY UNSTABLE
LAPSE RATE TO SUGGEST A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LIMITED DIURNAL CYCLE AIDS IN
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. DECENT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AS WELL SO WOULD
EXPECT EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS...AND WHILE PERHAPS A
HALF INCH OR SO ON THE AVERAGE...SOME AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH OR
A BIT MORE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF A SPENCER TO SIOUX CITY LINE.
WITH SUCH A WEAK SHEAR PROFILE AND INSTABILITY HEDGING MORE TOWARD
THE MOIST NEUTRAL SIDE THAN GREATLY UNSTABLE...DO NOT SEE SEVERE
STORMS AS A LARGE THREAT...PERHAPS IN ISOLATED WIND OR BRIEF
SPINUP IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST...DEPENDING FULLY ON WHETHER CAN GET
ANY DESTABILIZING OF THE LOWEST LAYER.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...HEATING OF THE DAY A BIT MORE FAVORED AND
WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO DESTABILIZE SOMEWHAT MORE AFTER A LITTLE
MORE HOSTILITY TOWARD LIFT EARLIER IN THE DAY. BY LATER
AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING A NARROW CAPE PROFILE AND
SECONDARY CONVERGENCE AXIS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO PERHAPS
GENERATE A COUPLE OF ROGUE LATE DAY STORMS...WITH THE THREAT
TRAVERSING MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWA ALONG WITH THE WEAK SECONDARY
WAVE OVERNIGHT AND VERY EARLY ON SATURDAY. REMAINDER OF SATURDAY
SHOULD BE QUIET WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING.

WITH LITTLE PUSH TO FLUSHING OUT MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS...
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY IN THE EAST...LIKELY
ONLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHILE PARTIAL CLEARING
IN THE WEST AND LOCATION AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY CONVERGENCE PUSHES
INTO THE MID 80S. BY SATURDAY...SHOULD END UP A BIT WARMER MOST
AREAS...EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY EAST OF SOUTH WINDS AT THE
SURFACE.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GET ANOTHER BOOST TO LOWER TO MID LEVEL THETA
E ADVECTION AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. LEADING WEAK PV IMPULSE/DIV Q SWINGS EAST/NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...BUT HARD TO PUSH MUCH PAST A
MODEST CHANCE POP FOR SD CWA...AND HIGHEST IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...
WITH CLEAR LACK OF A BOUNDARY.

SUNDAY IS PROBABLY THE MOST INTERESTING DAY OF THE LONGER RANGE
PERIOD WITH NEXT STRONG JET DIVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
MAKING A SHARP TURN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL DEVELOPMENT
OF OUTFLOW TYPE JET TO NORTH...ENHANCING THE DIVERGENCE
SIGNATURE...PROBABLY MORE OF A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THAN DRIVER OF DEVELOPMENT. NONETHELESS...IS A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DEPENDING ON THE WAVE TIMING...WHICH VARIES FROM GFS A BIT FASTER
TO ECMWF A BIT SLOWER...MAY TIME OUT TO COINCIDE WITH DIURNAL
CYCLE...AS DEEPLY CONVERGENT BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA. MUCH
STRONGER WINDS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT AND DISTRIBUTED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PROFILE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN DESIRED
FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE THAT THERE
WILL BE A MENTIONABLE SEVERE THREAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AT THIS POINT LOOKING FROM I 29 AND EASTWARD.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD PICK UP THE PACE WITH ORGANIZED SYSTEM
DEVELOPING AND BE WELL CLEAR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...LEAVING A QUIET
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COULD SEE A LITTLE RETURN FLOW ACTIVITY
AS ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE ZIPS THROUGH. OVERALL...WILL BE IN A
TRANSITION BACK TOWARD WESTERN TROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE BY
MID TO LATE WEEK...MAKING FOR STRONGER RETURN FLOW BY WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM JUST BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS LIKELY TO START JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY
WEEK...AND MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR AND IFR RANGE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THIS
RAIN AND LOWER CIGS...EXACT TIMING AND HEIGHT OF CLOUDS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY REBOUND TOMORROW...BUT PROBABLY NOT
REALLY IMPROVING UNTIL THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY VERY WELL LINGER AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KUNR 280904
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
304 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NRN
COLORADO/SRN WYOMING WITH A TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE AND
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. A LITTLE EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE
WRN SD PLAINS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER/STORM OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. THUS LEFT ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...DECIDED TO ADD SOME FOG FOR THE SD PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A WEAK
COOL FRONT INTO WESTERN SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 250-500J/KG
MLCAPE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPE/SHEAR FOR STORMS.
MOST OF THE 500-700MB MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER
COULD SEE SCATTERED STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NW...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK TO ADVECT THROUGH THE
REGION SAT-SUN...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE NE PAC TUE-WED FAVORED IN ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MEAN RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. MAIN FORECAST TREND IS A
QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE EXPECTED LONG WAVE TROUGH SAT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING SAT AFTERNOON WESTERN THIRD. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK ATTM.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SUPPORTING INCREASING LSA SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL WILL INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE SUPPORTING
A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN FA BY SAT AFTERNOON.
LL SE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOIST UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING PW OVER THE REGION...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
BEING AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODEL INDICATION FOR
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE OVER THE FAR NW ZONES...ESP NW
SD BY SAT EVENING...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT THERE.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NE ACROSS THE NW FA. TRAILING SFC TROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT LSA
SHOULD SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TS NW THIRD...WITH MORE
SCT/ISOLD ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL WILL SUPPORT STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER THE FA SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH BH/NE WY
TERRAIN INFLUENCES SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TS SW HALF OF
THE FA. BUMPED POPS UP OVER THE BH. OTHERWISE...ONE MORE WEAKER
WESTERLY FLOW IMPULSE STILL INDICATED IN FORECAST MODELS
MONDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM...ESP WITH DRY PROFILES. DRY CONDS
EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGING.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESP NW AREAS.
THE WARMEST DAY IN PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SAT...ESP ON THE SD PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR WARM CONDITIONS NEXT WED GIVEN
SW WAA FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL EJECTING NE PAC UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

WDSPRD SHRA WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...MAINLY CNTRL SD. LOCAL
IFR VSBY IN FOG POSSIBLE THERE...ESP INTO NW SD. THE PCPN WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS OF WRN SD OVERNIGHT...WITH LCL IFR CONDS
IN FOG. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 280904
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
304 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NRN
COLORADO/SRN WYOMING WITH A TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE AND
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. A LITTLE EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE
WRN SD PLAINS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER/STORM OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. THUS LEFT ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...DECIDED TO ADD SOME FOG FOR THE SD PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A WEAK
COOL FRONT INTO WESTERN SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 250-500J/KG
MLCAPE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPE/SHEAR FOR STORMS.
MOST OF THE 500-700MB MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER
COULD SEE SCATTERED STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NW...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK TO ADVECT THROUGH THE
REGION SAT-SUN...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE NE PAC TUE-WED FAVORED IN ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MEAN RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. MAIN FORECAST TREND IS A
QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE EXPECTED LONG WAVE TROUGH SAT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING SAT AFTERNOON WESTERN THIRD. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK ATTM.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SUPPORTING INCREASING LSA SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL WILL INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE SUPPORTING
A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN FA BY SAT AFTERNOON.
LL SE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOIST UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING PW OVER THE REGION...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
BEING AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODEL INDICATION FOR
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE OVER THE FAR NW ZONES...ESP NW
SD BY SAT EVENING...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT THERE.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NE ACROSS THE NW FA. TRAILING SFC TROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT LSA
SHOULD SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TS NW THIRD...WITH MORE
SCT/ISOLD ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL WILL SUPPORT STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER THE FA SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH BH/NE WY
TERRAIN INFLUENCES SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TS SW HALF OF
THE FA. BUMPED POPS UP OVER THE BH. OTHERWISE...ONE MORE WEAKER
WESTERLY FLOW IMPULSE STILL INDICATED IN FORECAST MODELS
MONDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM...ESP WITH DRY PROFILES. DRY CONDS
EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGING.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESP NW AREAS.
THE WARMEST DAY IN PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SAT...ESP ON THE SD PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR WARM CONDITIONS NEXT WED GIVEN
SW WAA FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL EJECTING NE PAC UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

WDSPRD SHRA WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...MAINLY CNTRL SD. LOCAL
IFR VSBY IN FOG POSSIBLE THERE...ESP INTO NW SD. THE PCPN WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS OF WRN SD OVERNIGHT...WITH LCL IFR CONDS
IN FOG. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC






000
FXUS63 KABR 280853
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
353 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESPONSIBLE
FOR DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. FAVORABLE JET PLACEMENT RESULTING IN
BROAD AREA OF RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW LIGHTING STRIKES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE CONTINUED SLOWER...MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...AND LIGHTER QPF. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE CLOSER TO THE
QUARTER/HALF INCH RANGE THOUGH GFS OMEGA VALUES TOPPING 20
MICROBARS SUGGEST A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD STILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF STRIKES OF LIGHTNING. TEMPS
TODAY WILL STRUGGLE WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S...AND IF WE CAN GET A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON MIGHT STILL SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S.

WEAK TROF WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...HOWEVER
GFS PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY WEAK LIFT AND INTERMITTENT MOISTURE
SATURATION WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS.



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO IN THE LONGER RANGE
SOLUTIONS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF DECENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SOMEWHERE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME WHEN A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE
WORKING THROUGH...AND THEN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY UNDER
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WHILE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR AT KMBG/KABR AS STRATUS MOVES
BACK IN AROUND 9Z. FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND KPIR
AFTER THE SHOWERS END DROPPING VSBY TO IFR AT TIMES THROUGH 15Z.
WITH DRY AIR TO OVERCOME THE RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT KATY WHEN CIGS MAY DROP TO MVFR. ALL OTHER
SITES WILL BE BACK TO VFR BY THEN.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 280853
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
353 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESPONSIBLE
FOR DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. FAVORABLE JET PLACEMENT RESULTING IN
BROAD AREA OF RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW LIGHTING STRIKES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE CONTINUED SLOWER...MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...AND LIGHTER QPF. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE CLOSER TO THE
QUARTER/HALF INCH RANGE THOUGH GFS OMEGA VALUES TOPPING 20
MICROBARS SUGGEST A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD STILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF STRIKES OF LIGHTNING. TEMPS
TODAY WILL STRUGGLE WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S...AND IF WE CAN GET A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON MIGHT STILL SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S.

WEAK TROF WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...HOWEVER
GFS PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY WEAK LIFT AND INTERMITTENT MOISTURE
SATURATION WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS.



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO IN THE LONGER RANGE
SOLUTIONS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF DECENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SOMEWHERE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME WHEN A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE
WORKING THROUGH...AND THEN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY UNDER
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WHILE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR AT KMBG/KABR AS STRATUS MOVES
BACK IN AROUND 9Z. FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND KPIR
AFTER THE SHOWERS END DROPPING VSBY TO IFR AT TIMES THROUGH 15Z.
WITH DRY AIR TO OVERCOME THE RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT KATY WHEN CIGS MAY DROP TO MVFR. ALL OTHER
SITES WILL BE BACK TO VFR BY THEN.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 280853
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
353 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESPONSIBLE
FOR DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. FAVORABLE JET PLACEMENT RESULTING IN
BROAD AREA OF RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW LIGHTING STRIKES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE CONTINUED SLOWER...MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...AND LIGHTER QPF. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE CLOSER TO THE
QUARTER/HALF INCH RANGE THOUGH GFS OMEGA VALUES TOPPING 20
MICROBARS SUGGEST A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD STILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF STRIKES OF LIGHTNING. TEMPS
TODAY WILL STRUGGLE WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S...AND IF WE CAN GET A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON MIGHT STILL SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S.

WEAK TROF WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...HOWEVER
GFS PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY WEAK LIFT AND INTERMITTENT MOISTURE
SATURATION WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS.



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO IN THE LONGER RANGE
SOLUTIONS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF DECENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SOMEWHERE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME WHEN A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE
WORKING THROUGH...AND THEN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY UNDER
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WHILE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR AT KMBG/KABR AS STRATUS MOVES
BACK IN AROUND 9Z. FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND KPIR
AFTER THE SHOWERS END DROPPING VSBY TO IFR AT TIMES THROUGH 15Z.
WITH DRY AIR TO OVERCOME THE RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT KATY WHEN CIGS MAY DROP TO MVFR. ALL OTHER
SITES WILL BE BACK TO VFR BY THEN.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 280853
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
353 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESPONSIBLE
FOR DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. FAVORABLE JET PLACEMENT RESULTING IN
BROAD AREA OF RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW LIGHTING STRIKES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE CONTINUED SLOWER...MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...AND LIGHTER QPF. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE CLOSER TO THE
QUARTER/HALF INCH RANGE THOUGH GFS OMEGA VALUES TOPPING 20
MICROBARS SUGGEST A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD STILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF STRIKES OF LIGHTNING. TEMPS
TODAY WILL STRUGGLE WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S...AND IF WE CAN GET A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON MIGHT STILL SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S.

WEAK TROF WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...HOWEVER
GFS PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY WEAK LIFT AND INTERMITTENT MOISTURE
SATURATION WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS.



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO IN THE LONGER RANGE
SOLUTIONS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF DECENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SOMEWHERE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME WHEN A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE
WORKING THROUGH...AND THEN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY UNDER
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WHILE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR AT KMBG/KABR AS STRATUS MOVES
BACK IN AROUND 9Z. FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND KPIR
AFTER THE SHOWERS END DROPPING VSBY TO IFR AT TIMES THROUGH 15Z.
WITH DRY AIR TO OVERCOME THE RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT KATY WHEN CIGS MAY DROP TO MVFR. ALL OTHER
SITES WILL BE BACK TO VFR BY THEN.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 280540 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1240 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
AND NO FURTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT RANGE IS PCPN AND HOW MUCH. PER WATER
VAPOR LOOP...NICE LOOKING SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE
LIFTING EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN A BROAD SENSE THE MODELS ARE
HANDLING THIS SYSTEM SIMILARLY. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MODEL QPF OUTPUT...LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENT TIMING/MOVEMENT OF
WAVES WITHIN ADVANCING TROF. MOST MODELS MAINTAIN THE IDEA THAT
THE HEAVIES PCPN WILL BE SOUTH OF THE ABR CWA. THE GFS APPEARS TO
DEVELOP A CONVECTIVE VORT AND LOOKS TOO MUCH INFLUENCED BY THIS
PROGNOSTICATION AND THEREFORE HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ITS
SOLUTION. BUT THAT SAID POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A BIT OVER MOST OF
THE CWA GIVEN A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TREND IN THE MODEL OUTPUT. H5-H3
LAYER Q VECTORS OFF THE ECMWF AND LEFT EXIT OF H3 JET SHOW A
FAIRLY POTENT WAVE/DIVERGENT AREA MOVING ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SD
BORDER LATE TNT AND THURSDAY. LLJ IS ALSO FOCUSED INTO SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. PWATS WILL BE PRETTY HEALTHY AT 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER
SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL THOUGH SUSPECT THAT THE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSER TO NOSE OF LLJ OVER AREAS SOUTH OF
THE ABR CWA. SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THE MOMENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DECENT ENERGY WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN A MORE ZONAL
FLOW SETS UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS FAIRLY QUIET DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...THEN WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
SET UP. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIETER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR AT KMBG/KABR AS STRATUS MOVES
BACK IN AROUND 9Z. FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND KPIR
AFTER THE SHOWERS END DROPPING VSBY TO IFR AT TIMES THROUGH 15Z.
WITH DRY AIR TO OVERCOME THE RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT KATY WHEN CIGS MAY DROP TO MVFR. ALL OTHER
SITES WILL BE BACK TO VFR BY THEN.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 280431
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1131 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWING ONLY LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...SEEING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH A
MIDLEVEL WAVE LIFTING INTO THE REGION...AND EXPECTING SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. BY
LATER TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL THEN BE ENHANCED AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
THROUGH EASTERN NEBRAKSA/FAR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. HOW AND WHERE ALL THIS COMES TOGETHER WILL
DETERMINE WHICH AREAS GET THE MOST RAINFALL...AND MODELS ARE STILL
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THIS. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS WILL BE FOR THE HIGHEST QPF SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...LEANING TOWARD NORTHWESTERN IOWA. HI RES MODELS HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE ONSET OF CONVECTION SOME...SO FOLLOWED SUIT AND DELAYED THE
TIMING JUST A BIT WITH THE BETTER STUFF DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MO
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD 06Z. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS REMAIN JUST
EITHER SIDE OF TWO INCHES FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SO STILL COULD
HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER
VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. CONTINUED TO DEBATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WHETHER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NEEDED FOR TONIGHT...THOUGH MOST
AREAS HAVE NOT RECEIVED RAINFALL SINCE THIS PAST WEEKEND...AND FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE STILL PRETTY HIGH. THIS ON TOP OF SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING ON WHERE A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF HIGHER
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...DECIDED TO FORGO A WATCH AT THIS POINT. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING IF RAINFALL RATES GET HIGH
ENOUGH...AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED ON FUTURE SHIFTS. RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...TRENDING TO THE NORTH AND EAST
COLLOCATED WITH BETTER FORCING. THERMAL PROFILES WILL WILL WARM A
TAD FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY MID/UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND WITH WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE A DECENT THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT HIGHLY PROBABLE WITH FAIRLY POOR SHEAR THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT PULSE HAILERS OR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE THREAT AT
THIS TIME. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LIKELY TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
WHERE CLOUDS AND A POTENTIALLY COOLER AND MORE MOIST LOWER
ATMOSPHERE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO MUCH.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A STRONG SYSTEM
WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE DECENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SET TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PRETTY HIGH
POPS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NOT LOOKING LIKE ANY GREAT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS SOME MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD CAUSE SOME
DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SEASONAL AND LIKELY TO
COME IN JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR AND IFR RANGE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THIS
RAIN AND LOWER CIGS...EXACT TIMING AND HEIGHT OF CLOUDS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY REBOUND TOMORROW...BUT PROBABLY NOT
REALLY IMPROVING UNTIL THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY VERY WELL LINGER AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 280431
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1131 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWING ONLY LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...SEEING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH A
MIDLEVEL WAVE LIFTING INTO THE REGION...AND EXPECTING SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. BY
LATER TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL THEN BE ENHANCED AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
THROUGH EASTERN NEBRAKSA/FAR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. HOW AND WHERE ALL THIS COMES TOGETHER WILL
DETERMINE WHICH AREAS GET THE MOST RAINFALL...AND MODELS ARE STILL
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THIS. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS WILL BE FOR THE HIGHEST QPF SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...LEANING TOWARD NORTHWESTERN IOWA. HI RES MODELS HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE ONSET OF CONVECTION SOME...SO FOLLOWED SUIT AND DELAYED THE
TIMING JUST A BIT WITH THE BETTER STUFF DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MO
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD 06Z. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS REMAIN JUST
EITHER SIDE OF TWO INCHES FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SO STILL COULD
HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER
VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. CONTINUED TO DEBATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WHETHER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NEEDED FOR TONIGHT...THOUGH MOST
AREAS HAVE NOT RECEIVED RAINFALL SINCE THIS PAST WEEKEND...AND FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE STILL PRETTY HIGH. THIS ON TOP OF SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING ON WHERE A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF HIGHER
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...DECIDED TO FORGO A WATCH AT THIS POINT. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING IF RAINFALL RATES GET HIGH
ENOUGH...AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED ON FUTURE SHIFTS. RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...TRENDING TO THE NORTH AND EAST
COLLOCATED WITH BETTER FORCING. THERMAL PROFILES WILL WILL WARM A
TAD FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY MID/UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND WITH WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE A DECENT THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT HIGHLY PROBABLE WITH FAIRLY POOR SHEAR THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT PULSE HAILERS OR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE THREAT AT
THIS TIME. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LIKELY TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
WHERE CLOUDS AND A POTENTIALLY COOLER AND MORE MOIST LOWER
ATMOSPHERE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO MUCH.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A STRONG SYSTEM
WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE DECENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SET TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PRETTY HIGH
POPS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NOT LOOKING LIKE ANY GREAT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS SOME MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD CAUSE SOME
DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SEASONAL AND LIKELY TO
COME IN JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR AND IFR RANGE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THIS
RAIN AND LOWER CIGS...EXACT TIMING AND HEIGHT OF CLOUDS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY REBOUND TOMORROW...BUT PROBABLY NOT
REALLY IMPROVING UNTIL THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY VERY WELL LINGER AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KUNR 280428
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1028 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WDSPRD SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS NERN THROUGH SWRN
SD...SO HAVE RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS EVENING THAT AREA...WHILE
ALSO EXPANDING POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. SOME OF THIS RAINFALL IS
VERY HEAVY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN WY TO
CENTRAL KS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
CO...WITH TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ROTATING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN WY...THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS WELL AS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
SLOW MOVING STORMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS HAVE
PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

THE GENERAL TREND FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUT-OFF TO
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW WITH MAIN
AREA OF INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND A COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG TO MUCH
OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD AREA. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS FOR
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AROUND POSSIBLY
PRODUCING A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER OR STORM. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY
CLOUDY...WITH THE MOST SUN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WARMER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THESE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SD PLAINS
LATE...BUT WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT TOMORROW. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...A NARROW BAND OF SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR PRESENT FOR
POST FRONTAL ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF
OF CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MT/NORTHERN
WY AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DEVELOP A LOW ALONG IT IN
SOUTHEAST MT AND DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...BUT MLCIN MAY BE NOTABLE GIVEN DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

HAVE ADDED/EXPANDED POPS BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
THINKING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A SLOW TRANSITION TO
RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
COOLISH TEMPERATURES TO START SUNDAY BEHIND SATURDAY/S COOL
FRONT...BUT THEN WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WDSPRD SHRA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLKHLS
INTO CNTRL SD. LOCAL IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER -SHRA. THE PCPN WILL THEN
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS OF WRN SD OVERNIGHT...WITH LCL IFR
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 280428
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1028 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WDSPRD SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS NERN THROUGH SWRN
SD...SO HAVE RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS EVENING THAT AREA...WHILE
ALSO EXPANDING POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. SOME OF THIS RAINFALL IS
VERY HEAVY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN WY TO
CENTRAL KS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
CO...WITH TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ROTATING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN WY...THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS WELL AS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
SLOW MOVING STORMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS HAVE
PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

THE GENERAL TREND FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUT-OFF TO
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW WITH MAIN
AREA OF INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND A COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG TO MUCH
OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD AREA. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS FOR
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AROUND POSSIBLY
PRODUCING A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER OR STORM. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY
CLOUDY...WITH THE MOST SUN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WARMER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THESE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SD PLAINS
LATE...BUT WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT TOMORROW. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...A NARROW BAND OF SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR PRESENT FOR
POST FRONTAL ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF
OF CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MT/NORTHERN
WY AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DEVELOP A LOW ALONG IT IN
SOUTHEAST MT AND DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...BUT MLCIN MAY BE NOTABLE GIVEN DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

HAVE ADDED/EXPANDED POPS BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
THINKING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A SLOW TRANSITION TO
RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
COOLISH TEMPERATURES TO START SUNDAY BEHIND SATURDAY/S COOL
FRONT...BUT THEN WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WDSPRD SHRA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLKHLS
INTO CNTRL SD. LOCAL IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER -SHRA. THE PCPN WILL THEN
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS OF WRN SD OVERNIGHT...WITH LCL IFR
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 280428
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1028 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WDSPRD SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS NERN THROUGH SWRN
SD...SO HAVE RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS EVENING THAT AREA...WHILE
ALSO EXPANDING POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. SOME OF THIS RAINFALL IS
VERY HEAVY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN WY TO
CENTRAL KS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
CO...WITH TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ROTATING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN WY...THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS WELL AS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
SLOW MOVING STORMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS HAVE
PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

THE GENERAL TREND FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUT-OFF TO
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW WITH MAIN
AREA OF INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND A COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG TO MUCH
OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD AREA. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS FOR
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AROUND POSSIBLY
PRODUCING A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER OR STORM. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY
CLOUDY...WITH THE MOST SUN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WARMER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THESE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SD PLAINS
LATE...BUT WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT TOMORROW. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...A NARROW BAND OF SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR PRESENT FOR
POST FRONTAL ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF
OF CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MT/NORTHERN
WY AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DEVELOP A LOW ALONG IT IN
SOUTHEAST MT AND DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...BUT MLCIN MAY BE NOTABLE GIVEN DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

HAVE ADDED/EXPANDED POPS BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
THINKING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A SLOW TRANSITION TO
RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
COOLISH TEMPERATURES TO START SUNDAY BEHIND SATURDAY/S COOL
FRONT...BUT THEN WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WDSPRD SHRA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLKHLS
INTO CNTRL SD. LOCAL IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER -SHRA. THE PCPN WILL THEN
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS OF WRN SD OVERNIGHT...WITH LCL IFR
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 280428
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1028 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WDSPRD SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS NERN THROUGH SWRN
SD...SO HAVE RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS EVENING THAT AREA...WHILE
ALSO EXPANDING POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. SOME OF THIS RAINFALL IS
VERY HEAVY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN WY TO
CENTRAL KS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
CO...WITH TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ROTATING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN WY...THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS WELL AS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
SLOW MOVING STORMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS HAVE
PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

THE GENERAL TREND FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUT-OFF TO
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW WITH MAIN
AREA OF INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND A COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG TO MUCH
OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD AREA. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS FOR
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AROUND POSSIBLY
PRODUCING A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER OR STORM. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY
CLOUDY...WITH THE MOST SUN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WARMER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THESE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SD PLAINS
LATE...BUT WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT TOMORROW. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...A NARROW BAND OF SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR PRESENT FOR
POST FRONTAL ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF
OF CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MT/NORTHERN
WY AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DEVELOP A LOW ALONG IT IN
SOUTHEAST MT AND DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...BUT MLCIN MAY BE NOTABLE GIVEN DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

HAVE ADDED/EXPANDED POPS BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
THINKING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A SLOW TRANSITION TO
RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
COOLISH TEMPERATURES TO START SUNDAY BEHIND SATURDAY/S COOL
FRONT...BUT THEN WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WDSPRD SHRA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLKHLS
INTO CNTRL SD. LOCAL IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER -SHRA. THE PCPN WILL THEN
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS OF WRN SD OVERNIGHT...WITH LCL IFR
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KFSD 280345 AAA
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1045 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWING ONLY LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...SEEING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH A
MIDLEVEL WAVE LIFTING INTO THE REGION...AND EXPECTING SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. BY
LATER TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL THEN BE ENHANCED AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
THROUGH EASTERN NEBRAKSA/FAR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. HOW AND WHERE ALL THIS COMES TOGETHER WILL
DETERMINE WHICH AREAS GET THE MOST RAINFALL...AND MODELS ARE STILL
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THIS. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS WILL BE FOR THE HIGHEST QPF SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...LEANING TOWARD NORTHWESTERN IOWA. HI RES MODELS HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE ONSET OF CONVECTION SOME...SO FOLLOWED SUIT AND DELAYED THE
TIMING JUST A BIT WITH THE BETTER STUFF DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MO
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD 06Z. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS REMAIN JUST
EITHER SIDE OF TWO INCHES FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SO STILL COULD
HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER
VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. CONTINUED TO DEBATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WHETHER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NEEDED FOR TONIGHT...THOUGH MOST
AREAS HAVE NOT RECEIVED RAINFALL SINCE THIS PAST WEEKEND...AND FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE STILL PRETTY HIGH. THIS ON TOP OF SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING ON WHERE A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF HIGHER
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...DECIDED TO FORGO A WATCH AT THIS POINT. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING IF RAINFALL RATES GET HIGH
ENOUGH...AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED ON FUTURE SHIFTS. RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...TRENDING TO THE NORTH AND EAST
COLLOCATED WITH BETTER FORCING. THERMAL PROFILES WILL WILL WARM A
TAD FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY MID/UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND WITH WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE A DECENT THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT HIGHLY PROBABLE WITH FAIRLY POOR SHEAR THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT PULSE HAILERS OR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE THREAT AT
THIS TIME. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LIKELY TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
WHERE CLOUDS AND A POTENTIALLY COOLER AND MORE MOIST LOWER
ATMOSPHERE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO MUCH.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A STRONG SYSTEM
WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE DECENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SET TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PRETTY HIGH
POPS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NOT LOOKING LIKE ANY GREAT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS SOME MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD CAUSE SOME
DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SEASONAL AND LIKELY TO
COME IN JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AS WELL
AS LOCATIONS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE THE IFR
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR QUICKEST TOMORROW MORNING WHILE PARTS
OF SW MINNESOTA AND NW IOWA WILL REMAIN IN IFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER
ABOUT 4Z WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LIKELY FROM ABOUT 9Z
THROUGH 15Z. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE AT KFSD AND KABR.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM









000
FXUS63 KUNR 280005
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
605 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WDSPRD SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS NERN THROUGH SWRN
SD...SO HAVE RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS EVENING THAT AREA...WHILE
ALSO EXPANDING POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. SOME OF THIS RAINFALL IS
VERY HEAVY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN WY TO
CENTRAL KS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
CO...WITH TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ROTATING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN WY...THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS WELL AS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
SLOW MOVING STORMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS HAVE
PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

THE GENERAL TREND FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUT-OFF TO
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW WITH MAIN
AREA OF INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND A COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG TO MUCH
OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD AREA. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS FOR
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AROUND POSSIBLY
PRODUCING A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER OR STORM. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY
CLOUDY...WITH THE MOST SUN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WARMER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THESE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SD PLAINS
LATE...BUT WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT TOMORROW. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...A NARROW BAND OF SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR PRESENT FOR
POST FRONTAL ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF
OF CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MT/NORTHERN
WY AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DEVELOP A LOW ALONG IT IN
SOUTHEAST MT AND DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...BUT MLCIN MAY BE NOTABLE GIVEN DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

HAVE ADDED/EXPANDED POPS BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
THINKING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A SLOW TRANSITION TO
RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
COOLISH TEMPERATURES TO START SUNDAY BEHIND SATURDAY/S COOL
FRONT...BUT THEN WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WDSPRD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. AREAS ST/BR ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALONG/SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KPHP TO KCUT...ALTHOUGH FINAL NORTHERN
EDGE OF ST/BR WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AREAS MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHRA/BR ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ON THE SD PLAINS AS SURFACE T/TD SPREADS
CONVERGE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 280005
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
605 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WDSPRD SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS NERN THROUGH SWRN
SD...SO HAVE RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS EVENING THAT AREA...WHILE
ALSO EXPANDING POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. SOME OF THIS RAINFALL IS
VERY HEAVY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN WY TO
CENTRAL KS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
CO...WITH TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ROTATING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN WY...THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS WELL AS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
SLOW MOVING STORMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS HAVE
PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

THE GENERAL TREND FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUT-OFF TO
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW WITH MAIN
AREA OF INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND A COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG TO MUCH
OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD AREA. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS FOR
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AROUND POSSIBLY
PRODUCING A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER OR STORM. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY
CLOUDY...WITH THE MOST SUN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WARMER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THESE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SD PLAINS
LATE...BUT WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT TOMORROW. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...A NARROW BAND OF SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR PRESENT FOR
POST FRONTAL ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF
OF CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MT/NORTHERN
WY AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DEVELOP A LOW ALONG IT IN
SOUTHEAST MT AND DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...BUT MLCIN MAY BE NOTABLE GIVEN DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

HAVE ADDED/EXPANDED POPS BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
THINKING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A SLOW TRANSITION TO
RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
COOLISH TEMPERATURES TO START SUNDAY BEHIND SATURDAY/S COOL
FRONT...BUT THEN WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WDSPRD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. AREAS ST/BR ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALONG/SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KPHP TO KCUT...ALTHOUGH FINAL NORTHERN
EDGE OF ST/BR WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AREAS MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHRA/BR ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ON THE SD PLAINS AS SURFACE T/TD SPREADS
CONVERGE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 280005
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
605 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WDSPRD SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS NERN THROUGH SWRN
SD...SO HAVE RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS EVENING THAT AREA...WHILE
ALSO EXPANDING POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. SOME OF THIS RAINFALL IS
VERY HEAVY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN WY TO
CENTRAL KS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
CO...WITH TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ROTATING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN WY...THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS WELL AS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
SLOW MOVING STORMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS HAVE
PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

THE GENERAL TREND FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUT-OFF TO
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW WITH MAIN
AREA OF INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND A COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG TO MUCH
OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD AREA. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS FOR
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AROUND POSSIBLY
PRODUCING A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER OR STORM. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY
CLOUDY...WITH THE MOST SUN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WARMER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THESE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SD PLAINS
LATE...BUT WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT TOMORROW. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...A NARROW BAND OF SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR PRESENT FOR
POST FRONTAL ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF
OF CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MT/NORTHERN
WY AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DEVELOP A LOW ALONG IT IN
SOUTHEAST MT AND DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...BUT MLCIN MAY BE NOTABLE GIVEN DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

HAVE ADDED/EXPANDED POPS BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
THINKING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A SLOW TRANSITION TO
RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
COOLISH TEMPERATURES TO START SUNDAY BEHIND SATURDAY/S COOL
FRONT...BUT THEN WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WDSPRD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. AREAS ST/BR ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALONG/SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KPHP TO KCUT...ALTHOUGH FINAL NORTHERN
EDGE OF ST/BR WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AREAS MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHRA/BR ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ON THE SD PLAINS AS SURFACE T/TD SPREADS
CONVERGE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 280005
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
605 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WDSPRD SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS NERN THROUGH SWRN
SD...SO HAVE RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS EVENING THAT AREA...WHILE
ALSO EXPANDING POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. SOME OF THIS RAINFALL IS
VERY HEAVY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN WY TO
CENTRAL KS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
CO...WITH TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ROTATING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN WY...THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS WELL AS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
SLOW MOVING STORMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS HAVE
PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

THE GENERAL TREND FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUT-OFF TO
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW WITH MAIN
AREA OF INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND A COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG TO MUCH
OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD AREA. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS FOR
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AROUND POSSIBLY
PRODUCING A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER OR STORM. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY
CLOUDY...WITH THE MOST SUN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WARMER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THESE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SD PLAINS
LATE...BUT WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT TOMORROW. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...A NARROW BAND OF SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR PRESENT FOR
POST FRONTAL ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF
OF CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MT/NORTHERN
WY AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DEVELOP A LOW ALONG IT IN
SOUTHEAST MT AND DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...BUT MLCIN MAY BE NOTABLE GIVEN DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

HAVE ADDED/EXPANDED POPS BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
THINKING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A SLOW TRANSITION TO
RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
COOLISH TEMPERATURES TO START SUNDAY BEHIND SATURDAY/S COOL
FRONT...BUT THEN WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WDSPRD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. AREAS ST/BR ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALONG/SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KPHP TO KCUT...ALTHOUGH FINAL NORTHERN
EDGE OF ST/BR WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AREAS MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHRA/BR ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ON THE SD PLAINS AS SURFACE T/TD SPREADS
CONVERGE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KABR 272351 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
651 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
AND NO FURTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT RANGE IS PCPN AND HOW MUCH. PER WATER
VAPOR LOOP...NICE LOOKING SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE
LIFTING EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN A BROAD SENSE THE MODELS ARE
HANDLING THIS SYSTEM SIMILARLY. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MODEL QPF OUTPUT...LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENT TIMING/MOVEMENT OF
WAVES WITHIN ADVANCING TROF. MOST MODELS MAINTAIN THE IDEA THAT
THE HEAVIES PCPN WILL BE SOUTH OF THE ABR CWA. THE GFS APPEARS TO
DEVELOP A CONVECTIVE VORT AND LOOKS TOO MUCH INFLUENCED BY THIS
PROGNOSTICATION AND THEREFORE HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ITS
SOLUTION. BUT THAT SAID POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A BIT OVER MOST OF
THE CWA GIVEN A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TREND IN THE MODEL OUTPUT. H5-H3
LAYER Q VECTORS OFF THE ECMWF AND LEFT EXIT OF H3 JET SHOW A
FAIRLY POTENT WAVE/DIVERGENT AREA MOVING ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SD
BORDER LATE TNT AND THURSDAY. LLJ IS ALSO FOCUSED INTO SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. PWATS WILL BE PRETTY HEALTHY AT 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER
SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL THOUGH SUSPECT THAT THE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSER TO NOSE OF LLJ OVER AREAS SOUTH OF
THE ABR CWA. SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THE MOMENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DECENT ENERGY WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN A MORE ZONAL
FLOW SETS UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS FAIRLY QUIET DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...THEN WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
SET UP. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIETER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS LINGER NEAR KMBG THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE ALL SITES ARE
VFR. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO POP UP SOUTH OF KABR AND NORTH OF
KPIR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER AROUND
THE SAME TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE CWA NEAR KPIR AND
EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE CWA BY 12Z. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SHOWERS BR MAY DEVELOP...DROPPING
VSBY EVEN FURTHER INTO IFR NEAR KPIR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 272351 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
651 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
AND NO FURTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT RANGE IS PCPN AND HOW MUCH. PER WATER
VAPOR LOOP...NICE LOOKING SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE
LIFTING EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN A BROAD SENSE THE MODELS ARE
HANDLING THIS SYSTEM SIMILARLY. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MODEL QPF OUTPUT...LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENT TIMING/MOVEMENT OF
WAVES WITHIN ADVANCING TROF. MOST MODELS MAINTAIN THE IDEA THAT
THE HEAVIES PCPN WILL BE SOUTH OF THE ABR CWA. THE GFS APPEARS TO
DEVELOP A CONVECTIVE VORT AND LOOKS TOO MUCH INFLUENCED BY THIS
PROGNOSTICATION AND THEREFORE HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ITS
SOLUTION. BUT THAT SAID POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A BIT OVER MOST OF
THE CWA GIVEN A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TREND IN THE MODEL OUTPUT. H5-H3
LAYER Q VECTORS OFF THE ECMWF AND LEFT EXIT OF H3 JET SHOW A
FAIRLY POTENT WAVE/DIVERGENT AREA MOVING ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SD
BORDER LATE TNT AND THURSDAY. LLJ IS ALSO FOCUSED INTO SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. PWATS WILL BE PRETTY HEALTHY AT 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER
SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL THOUGH SUSPECT THAT THE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSER TO NOSE OF LLJ OVER AREAS SOUTH OF
THE ABR CWA. SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THE MOMENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DECENT ENERGY WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN A MORE ZONAL
FLOW SETS UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS FAIRLY QUIET DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...THEN WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
SET UP. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIETER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS LINGER NEAR KMBG THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE ALL SITES ARE
VFR. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO POP UP SOUTH OF KABR AND NORTH OF
KPIR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER AROUND
THE SAME TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE CWA NEAR KPIR AND
EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE CWA BY 12Z. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SHOWERS BR MAY DEVELOP...DROPPING
VSBY EVEN FURTHER INTO IFR NEAR KPIR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KFSD 272316
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
616 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWING ONLY LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...SEEING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH A
MIDLEVEL WAVE LIFTING INTO THE REGION...AND EXPECTING SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. BY
LATER TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL THEN BE ENHANCED AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
THROUGH EASTERN NEBRAKSA/FAR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. HOW AND WHERE ALL THIS COMES TOGETHER WILL
DETERMINE WHICH AREAS GET THE MOST RAINFALL...AND MODELS ARE STILL
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THIS. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS WILL BE FOR THE HIGHEST QPF SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...LEANING TOWARD NORTHWESTERN IOWA. HI RES MODELS HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE ONSET OF CONVECTION SOME...SO FOLLOWED SUIT AND DELAYED THE
TIMING JUST A BIT WITH THE BETTER STUFF DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MO
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD 06Z. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS REMAIN JUST
EITHER SIDE OF TWO INCHES FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SO STILL COULD
HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER
VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. CONTINUED TO DEBATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WHETHER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NEEDED FOR TONIGHT...THOUGH MOST
AREAS HAVE NOT RECEIVED RAINFALL SINCE THIS PAST WEEKEND...AND FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE STILL PRETTY HIGH. THIS ON TOP OF SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING ON WHERE A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF HIGHER
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...DECIDED TO FORGO A WATCH AT THIS POINT. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING IF RAINFALL RATES GET HIGH
ENOUGH...AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED ON FUTURE SHIFTS. RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...TRENDING TO THE NORTH AND EAST
COLLOCATED WITH BETTER FORCING. THERMAL PROFILES WILL WILL WARM A
TAD FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY MID/UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND WITH WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE A DECENT THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT HIGHLY PROBABLE WITH FAIRLY POOR SHEAR THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT PULSE HAILERS OR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE THREAT AT
THIS TIME. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LIKELY TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
WHERE CLOUDS AND A POTENTIALLY COOLER AND MORE MOIST LOWER
ATMOSPHERE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO MUCH.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A STRONG SYSTEM
WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE DECENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SET TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PRETTY HIGH
POPS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NOT LOOKING LIKE ANY GREAT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS SOME MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD CAUSE SOME
DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SEASONAL AND LIKELY TO
COME IN JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AS WELL AS
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE THE IFR CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO MVFR QUICKEST TOMORROW MORNING WHILE PARTS OF SW
MINNESOTA AND NW IOWA WILL REMAIN IN IFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER ABOUT 4Z
WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LIKELY FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH 15Z.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AT
KFSD AND KABR.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM







000
FXUS63 KFSD 272130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
429 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWING ONLY LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...SEEING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH A
MIDLEVEL WAVE LIFTING INTO THE REGION...AND EXPECTING SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. BY
LATER TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL THEN BE ENHANCED AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
THROUGH EASTERN NEBRAKSA/FAR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. HOW AND WHERE ALL THIS COMES TOGETHER WILL
DETERMINE WHICH AREAS GET THE MOST RAINFALL...AND MODELS ARE STILL
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THIS. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS WILL BE FOR THE HIGHEST QPF SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...LEANING TOWARD NORTHWESTERN IOWA. HI RES MODELS HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE ONSET OF CONVECTION SOME...SO FOLLOWED SUIT AND DELAYED THE
TIMING JUST A BIT WITH THE BETTER STUFF DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MO
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD 06Z. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS REMAIN JUST
EITHER SIDE OF TWO INCHES FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SO STILL COULD
HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER
VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. CONTINUED TO DEBATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WHETHER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NEEDED FOR TONIGHT...THOUGH MOST
AREAS HAVE NOT RECEIVED RAINFALL SINCE THIS PAST WEEKEND...AND FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE STILL PRETTY HIGH. THIS ON TOP OF SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING ON WHERE A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF HIGHER
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...DECIDED TO FORGO A WATCH AT THIS POINT. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING IF RAINFALL RATES GET HIGH
ENOUGH...AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED ON FUTURE SHIFTS. RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...TRENDING TO THE NORTH AND EAST
COLLOCATED WITH BETTER FORCING. THERMAL PROFILES WILL WILL WARM A
TAD FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY MID/UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND WITH WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE A DECENT THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT HIGHLY PROBABLE WITH FAIRLY POOR SHEAR THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT PULSE HAILERS OR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE THREAT AT
THIS TIME. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LIKELY TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
WHERE CLOUDS AND A POTENTIALLY COOLER AND MORE MOIST LOWER
ATMOSPHERE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO MUCH.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A STRONG SYSTEM
WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE DECENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SET TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PRETTY HIGH
POPS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NOT LOOKING LIKE ANY GREAT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS SOME MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD CAUSE SOME
DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SEASONAL AND LIKELY TO
COME IN JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH NEBRASKA THIS EVENING THEN EXPAND
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT AFTER 12Z ON THURSDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM







000
FXUS63 KUNR 272105
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN WY TO
CENTRAL KS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
CO...WITH TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ROTATING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN WY...THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS WELL AS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
SLOW MOVING STORMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS HAVE
PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

THE GENERAL TREND FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUT-OFF TO
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW WITH MAIN
AREA OF INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND A COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG TO MUCH
OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD AREA. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS FOR
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AROUND POSSIBLY
PRODUCING A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER OR STORM. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY
CLOUDY...WITH THE MOST SUN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WARMER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THESE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SD PLAINS
LATE...BUT WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT TOMORROW. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...A NARROW BAND OF SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR PRESENT FOR
POST FRONTAL ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF
OF CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MT/NORTHERN
WY AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DEVELOP A LOW ALONG IT IN
SOUTHEAST MT AND DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...BUT MLCIN MAY BE NOTABLE GIVEN DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

HAVE ADDED/EXPANDED POPS BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
THINKING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A SLOW TRANSITION TO
RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
COOLISH TEMPERATURES TO START SUNDAY BEHIND SATURDAY/S COOL
FRONT...BUT THEN WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. AREAS ST/BR ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALONG/SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KPHP TO KCUT...ALTHOUGH FINAL NORTHERN
EDGE OF ST/BR WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AREAS MVFR VSBYS DUE TO BR ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ON THE SD PLAINS AS SURFACE T/TD SPREADS
CONVERGE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 272105
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN WY TO
CENTRAL KS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
CO...WITH TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ROTATING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN WY...THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS WELL AS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
SLOW MOVING STORMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS HAVE
PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

THE GENERAL TREND FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUT-OFF TO
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW WITH MAIN
AREA OF INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND A COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG TO MUCH
OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD AREA. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS FOR
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AROUND POSSIBLY
PRODUCING A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER OR STORM. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY
CLOUDY...WITH THE MOST SUN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WARMER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THESE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SD PLAINS
LATE...BUT WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT TOMORROW. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...A NARROW BAND OF SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR PRESENT FOR
POST FRONTAL ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF
OF CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MT/NORTHERN
WY AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DEVELOP A LOW ALONG IT IN
SOUTHEAST MT AND DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...BUT MLCIN MAY BE NOTABLE GIVEN DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

HAVE ADDED/EXPANDED POPS BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
THINKING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A SLOW TRANSITION TO
RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
COOLISH TEMPERATURES TO START SUNDAY BEHIND SATURDAY/S COOL
FRONT...BUT THEN WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. AREAS ST/BR ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALONG/SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KPHP TO KCUT...ALTHOUGH FINAL NORTHERN
EDGE OF ST/BR WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AREAS MVFR VSBYS DUE TO BR ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ON THE SD PLAINS AS SURFACE T/TD SPREADS
CONVERGE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON







000
FXUS63 KABR 272043
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
343 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT RANGE IS PCPN AND HOW MUCH. PER WATER
VAPOR LOOP...NICE LOOKING SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE
LIFTING EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN A BROAD SENSE THE MODELS ARE
HANDLING THIS SYSTEM SIMILARLY. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MODEL QPF OUTPUT...LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENT TIMING/MOVEMENT OF
WAVES WITHIN ADVANCING TROF. MOST MODELS MAINTAIN THE IDEA THAT
THE HEAVIES PCPN WILL BE SOUTH OF THE ABR CWA. THE GFS APPEARS TO
DEVELOP A CONVECTIVE VORT AND LOOKS TOO MUCH INFLUENCED BY THIS
PROGNOSTICATION AND THEREFORE HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ITS
SOLUTION. BUT THAT SAID POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A BIT OVER MOST OF
THE CWA GIVEN A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TREND IN THE MODEL OUTPUT. H5-H3
LAYER Q VECTORS OFF THE ECMWF AND LEFT EXIT OF H3 JET SHOW A
FAIRLY POTENT WAVE/DIVERGENT AREA MOVING ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SD
BORDER LATE TNT AND THURSDAY. LLJ IS ALSO FOCUSED INTO SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. PWATS WILL BE PRETTY HEALTHY AT 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER
SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL THOUGH SUSPECT THAT THE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSER TO NOSE OF LLJ OVER AREAS SOUTH OF
THE ABR CWA. SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THE MOMENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DECENT ENERGY WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN A MORE ZONAL
FLOW SETS UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS FAIRLY QUIET DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...THEN WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
SET UP. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIETER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR CIGS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH SOME
SCATTERED MVFR CIGS PUSHING FURTHER NORTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL
INTRODUCE MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN AT KABR AND KATY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
CIGS LIKELY FALLING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 272043
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
343 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT RANGE IS PCPN AND HOW MUCH. PER WATER
VAPOR LOOP...NICE LOOKING SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE
LIFTING EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN A BROAD SENSE THE MODELS ARE
HANDLING THIS SYSTEM SIMILARLY. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MODEL QPF OUTPUT...LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENT TIMING/MOVEMENT OF
WAVES WITHIN ADVANCING TROF. MOST MODELS MAINTAIN THE IDEA THAT
THE HEAVIES PCPN WILL BE SOUTH OF THE ABR CWA. THE GFS APPEARS TO
DEVELOP A CONVECTIVE VORT AND LOOKS TOO MUCH INFLUENCED BY THIS
PROGNOSTICATION AND THEREFORE HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ITS
SOLUTION. BUT THAT SAID POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A BIT OVER MOST OF
THE CWA GIVEN A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TREND IN THE MODEL OUTPUT. H5-H3
LAYER Q VECTORS OFF THE ECMWF AND LEFT EXIT OF H3 JET SHOW A
FAIRLY POTENT WAVE/DIVERGENT AREA MOVING ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SD
BORDER LATE TNT AND THURSDAY. LLJ IS ALSO FOCUSED INTO SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. PWATS WILL BE PRETTY HEALTHY AT 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER
SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL THOUGH SUSPECT THAT THE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSER TO NOSE OF LLJ OVER AREAS SOUTH OF
THE ABR CWA. SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THE MOMENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DECENT ENERGY WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN A MORE ZONAL
FLOW SETS UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS FAIRLY QUIET DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...THEN WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
SET UP. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIETER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR CIGS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH SOME
SCATTERED MVFR CIGS PUSHING FURTHER NORTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL
INTRODUCE MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN AT KABR AND KATY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
CIGS LIKELY FALLING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KFSD 272023
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
323 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWING ONLY LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...SEEING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH A
MIDLEVEL WAVE LIFTING INTO THE REGION...AND EXPECTING SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. BY
LATER TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL THEN BE ENHANCED AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
THROUGH EASTERN NEBRAKSA/FAR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. HOW AND WHERE ALL THIS COMES TOGETHER WILL
DETERMINE WHICH AREAS GET THE MOST RAINFALL...AND MODELS ARE STILL
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THIS. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS WILL BE FOR THE HIGHEST QPF SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...LEANING TOWARD NORTHWESTERN IOWA. HI RES MODELS HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE ONSET OF CONVECTION SOME...SO FOLLOWED SUIT AND DELAYED THE
TIMING JUST A BIT WITH THE BETTER STUFF DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MO
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD 06Z. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS REMAIN JUST
EITHER SIDE OF TWO INCHES FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SO STILL COULD
HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER
VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. CONTINUED TO DEBATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WHETHER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NEEDED FOR TONIGHT...THOUGH MOST
AREAS HAVE NOT RECEIVED RAINFALL SINCE THIS PAST WEEKEND...AND FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE STILL PRETTY HIGH. THIS ON TOP OF SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING ON WHERE A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF HIGHER
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...DECIDED TO FORGO A WATCH AT THIS POINT. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING IF RAINFALL RATES GET HIGH
ENOUGH...AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED ON FUTURE SHIFTS. RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...TRENDING TO THE NORTH AND EAST
COLLOCATED WITH BETTER FORCING. THERMAL PROFILES WILL WILL WARM A
TAD FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY MID/UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWING ONLY LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...SEEING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH A
MIDLEVEL WAVE LIFTING INTO THE REGION...AND EXPECTING SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. BY
LATER TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL THEN BE ENHANCED AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
THROUGH EASTERN NEBRAKSA/FAR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. HOW AND WHERE ALL THIS COMES TOGETHER WILL
DETERMINE WHICH AREAS GET THE MOST RAINFALL...AND MODELS ARE STILL
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THIS. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS WILL BE FOR THE HIGHEST QPF SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...LEANING TOWARD NORTHWESTERN IOWA. HI RES MODELS HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE ONSET OF CONVECTION SOME...SO FOLLOWED SUIT AND DELAYED THE
TIMING JUST A BIT WITH THE BETTER STUFF DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MO
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD 06Z. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS REMAIN JUST
EITHER SIDE OF TWO INCHES FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SO STILL COULD
HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER
VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. CONTINUED TO DEBATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WHETHER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NEEDED FOR TONIGHT...THOUGH MOST
AREAS HAVE NOT RECEIVED RAINFALL SINCE THIS PAST WEEKEND...AND FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE STILL PRETTY HIGH. THIS ON TOP OF SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING ON WHERE A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF HIGHER
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...DECIDED TO FORGO A WATCH AT THIS POINT. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING IF RAINFALL RATES GET HIGH
ENOUGH...AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED ON FUTURE SHIFTS. RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...TRENDING TO THE NORTH AND EAST
COLLOCATED WITH BETTER FORCING. THERMAL PROFILES WILL WILL WARM A
TAD FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH NEBRASKA THIS EVENING THEN EXPAND
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT AFTER 12Z ON THURSDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM






000
FXUS63 KFSD 272023
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
323 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWING ONLY LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...SEEING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH A
MIDLEVEL WAVE LIFTING INTO THE REGION...AND EXPECTING SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. BY
LATER TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL THEN BE ENHANCED AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
THROUGH EASTERN NEBRAKSA/FAR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. HOW AND WHERE ALL THIS COMES TOGETHER WILL
DETERMINE WHICH AREAS GET THE MOST RAINFALL...AND MODELS ARE STILL
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THIS. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS WILL BE FOR THE HIGHEST QPF SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...LEANING TOWARD NORTHWESTERN IOWA. HI RES MODELS HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE ONSET OF CONVECTION SOME...SO FOLLOWED SUIT AND DELAYED THE
TIMING JUST A BIT WITH THE BETTER STUFF DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MO
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD 06Z. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS REMAIN JUST
EITHER SIDE OF TWO INCHES FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SO STILL COULD
HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER
VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. CONTINUED TO DEBATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WHETHER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NEEDED FOR TONIGHT...THOUGH MOST
AREAS HAVE NOT RECEIVED RAINFALL SINCE THIS PAST WEEKEND...AND FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE STILL PRETTY HIGH. THIS ON TOP OF SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING ON WHERE A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF HIGHER
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...DECIDED TO FORGO A WATCH AT THIS POINT. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING IF RAINFALL RATES GET HIGH
ENOUGH...AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED ON FUTURE SHIFTS. RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...TRENDING TO THE NORTH AND EAST
COLLOCATED WITH BETTER FORCING. THERMAL PROFILES WILL WILL WARM A
TAD FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY MID/UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWING ONLY LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...SEEING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH A
MIDLEVEL WAVE LIFTING INTO THE REGION...AND EXPECTING SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. BY
LATER TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL THEN BE ENHANCED AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
THROUGH EASTERN NEBRAKSA/FAR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. HOW AND WHERE ALL THIS COMES TOGETHER WILL
DETERMINE WHICH AREAS GET THE MOST RAINFALL...AND MODELS ARE STILL
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THIS. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS WILL BE FOR THE HIGHEST QPF SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...LEANING TOWARD NORTHWESTERN IOWA. HI RES MODELS HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE ONSET OF CONVECTION SOME...SO FOLLOWED SUIT AND DELAYED THE
TIMING JUST A BIT WITH THE BETTER STUFF DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MO
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD 06Z. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS REMAIN JUST
EITHER SIDE OF TWO INCHES FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SO STILL COULD
HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER
VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. CONTINUED TO DEBATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WHETHER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NEEDED FOR TONIGHT...THOUGH MOST
AREAS HAVE NOT RECEIVED RAINFALL SINCE THIS PAST WEEKEND...AND FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE STILL PRETTY HIGH. THIS ON TOP OF SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING ON WHERE A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF HIGHER
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...DECIDED TO FORGO A WATCH AT THIS POINT. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING IF RAINFALL RATES GET HIGH
ENOUGH...AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED ON FUTURE SHIFTS. RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...TRENDING TO THE NORTH AND EAST
COLLOCATED WITH BETTER FORCING. THERMAL PROFILES WILL WILL WARM A
TAD FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH NEBRASKA THIS EVENING THEN EXPAND
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT AFTER 12Z ON THURSDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM







000
FXUS63 KABR 271728 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BACK OUT OF THE CWA...AND A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AM.

MAIN THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT/THURSDAY...UNFORTUNATELY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THANKS
TO RATHER STRIKING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS.

NAM PROVIDES A MUCH BETTER JET SIGNATURE AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENISIS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER LOW...AND A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK. THIS PUSHES THE QPF BULLSEYE WELL INTO THE CWA. THE NAM
TREND HAS EXISTED SINCE 18Z AND IS CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSED WITHIN THE
06Z RUN. SREF AND GEM/ECMWF HAVE A SOMEWHAT LESS NORTHERLY EXTREME
BUT THE SREF HAS PROBABILITIES GREATER THEN 2 INCHES FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND BOTH THE GEM/ECMWF BRING THE
PRECIPITATION BULLSEYE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO BE CONCERNED.
THE GFS IS THE SOUTHERLY OUTLIER.

NAM SUGGEST GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION WITH MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES...AND LESS THEN 500 J/KG CAPE. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 20 TO
30 MICROBARS OF LIFT ALONG A NARROW EAST WEST AXIS WITH A SLOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. SINCE STORMS ARE LIKELY DOMINATED BY WARM
CLOUD PROCESSES WITH SLOW EXPECTED MOTION...ADDED THE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS THIS AREA OF THE CWA
HAS ESCAPED HEAVY RAIN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
UNCERTAINTY OVER EXACT LOCATIONS FOR STORMS...WILL OPT OUT OF ANY
FLOOD HEADLINES.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MODELS REMAIN RELATIVELY SIMILAR AND MAINTAIN DECENT 24 HOUR
CONTINUITY. POPS CONTINUE TO BE SPRINKLED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
WHILE FLATTER...MORE ZONAL-TYPE...UPPER FLOW PERSISTS. STILL
WATCHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A POSSIBLE ROUND OF STRONG
CONVECTION WITH A COLD FROPA AND MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PROGGED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RUNNING GENERALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR CIGS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH SOME
SCATTERED MVFR CIGS PUSHING FURTHER NORTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL
INTRODUCE MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN AT KABR AND KATY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
CIGS LIKELY FALLING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY WITH THE PRECIPITATION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 271728 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BACK OUT OF THE CWA...AND A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AM.

MAIN THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT/THURSDAY...UNFORTUNATELY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THANKS
TO RATHER STRIKING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS.

NAM PROVIDES A MUCH BETTER JET SIGNATURE AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENISIS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER LOW...AND A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK. THIS PUSHES THE QPF BULLSEYE WELL INTO THE CWA. THE NAM
TREND HAS EXISTED SINCE 18Z AND IS CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSED WITHIN THE
06Z RUN. SREF AND GEM/ECMWF HAVE A SOMEWHAT LESS NORTHERLY EXTREME
BUT THE SREF HAS PROBABILITIES GREATER THEN 2 INCHES FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND BOTH THE GEM/ECMWF BRING THE
PRECIPITATION BULLSEYE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO BE CONCERNED.
THE GFS IS THE SOUTHERLY OUTLIER.

NAM SUGGEST GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION WITH MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES...AND LESS THEN 500 J/KG CAPE. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 20 TO
30 MICROBARS OF LIFT ALONG A NARROW EAST WEST AXIS WITH A SLOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. SINCE STORMS ARE LIKELY DOMINATED BY WARM
CLOUD PROCESSES WITH SLOW EXPECTED MOTION...ADDED THE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS THIS AREA OF THE CWA
HAS ESCAPED HEAVY RAIN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
UNCERTAINTY OVER EXACT LOCATIONS FOR STORMS...WILL OPT OUT OF ANY
FLOOD HEADLINES.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MODELS REMAIN RELATIVELY SIMILAR AND MAINTAIN DECENT 24 HOUR
CONTINUITY. POPS CONTINUE TO BE SPRINKLED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
WHILE FLATTER...MORE ZONAL-TYPE...UPPER FLOW PERSISTS. STILL
WATCHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A POSSIBLE ROUND OF STRONG
CONVECTION WITH A COLD FROPA AND MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PROGGED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RUNNING GENERALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR CIGS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH SOME
SCATTERED MVFR CIGS PUSHING FURTHER NORTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL
INTRODUCE MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN AT KABR AND KATY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
CIGS LIKELY FALLING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY WITH THE PRECIPITATION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 271728 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BACK OUT OF THE CWA...AND A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AM.

MAIN THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT/THURSDAY...UNFORTUNATELY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THANKS
TO RATHER STRIKING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS.

NAM PROVIDES A MUCH BETTER JET SIGNATURE AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENISIS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER LOW...AND A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK. THIS PUSHES THE QPF BULLSEYE WELL INTO THE CWA. THE NAM
TREND HAS EXISTED SINCE 18Z AND IS CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSED WITHIN THE
06Z RUN. SREF AND GEM/ECMWF HAVE A SOMEWHAT LESS NORTHERLY EXTREME
BUT THE SREF HAS PROBABILITIES GREATER THEN 2 INCHES FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND BOTH THE GEM/ECMWF BRING THE
PRECIPITATION BULLSEYE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO BE CONCERNED.
THE GFS IS THE SOUTHERLY OUTLIER.

NAM SUGGEST GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION WITH MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES...AND LESS THEN 500 J/KG CAPE. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 20 TO
30 MICROBARS OF LIFT ALONG A NARROW EAST WEST AXIS WITH A SLOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. SINCE STORMS ARE LIKELY DOMINATED BY WARM
CLOUD PROCESSES WITH SLOW EXPECTED MOTION...ADDED THE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS THIS AREA OF THE CWA
HAS ESCAPED HEAVY RAIN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
UNCERTAINTY OVER EXACT LOCATIONS FOR STORMS...WILL OPT OUT OF ANY
FLOOD HEADLINES.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MODELS REMAIN RELATIVELY SIMILAR AND MAINTAIN DECENT 24 HOUR
CONTINUITY. POPS CONTINUE TO BE SPRINKLED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
WHILE FLATTER...MORE ZONAL-TYPE...UPPER FLOW PERSISTS. STILL
WATCHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A POSSIBLE ROUND OF STRONG
CONVECTION WITH A COLD FROPA AND MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PROGGED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RUNNING GENERALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR CIGS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH SOME
SCATTERED MVFR CIGS PUSHING FURTHER NORTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL
INTRODUCE MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN AT KABR AND KATY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
CIGS LIKELY FALLING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY WITH THE PRECIPITATION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 271728 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BACK OUT OF THE CWA...AND A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AM.

MAIN THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT/THURSDAY...UNFORTUNATELY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THANKS
TO RATHER STRIKING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS.

NAM PROVIDES A MUCH BETTER JET SIGNATURE AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENISIS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER LOW...AND A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK. THIS PUSHES THE QPF BULLSEYE WELL INTO THE CWA. THE NAM
TREND HAS EXISTED SINCE 18Z AND IS CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSED WITHIN THE
06Z RUN. SREF AND GEM/ECMWF HAVE A SOMEWHAT LESS NORTHERLY EXTREME
BUT THE SREF HAS PROBABILITIES GREATER THEN 2 INCHES FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND BOTH THE GEM/ECMWF BRING THE
PRECIPITATION BULLSEYE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO BE CONCERNED.
THE GFS IS THE SOUTHERLY OUTLIER.

NAM SUGGEST GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION WITH MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES...AND LESS THEN 500 J/KG CAPE. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 20 TO
30 MICROBARS OF LIFT ALONG A NARROW EAST WEST AXIS WITH A SLOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. SINCE STORMS ARE LIKELY DOMINATED BY WARM
CLOUD PROCESSES WITH SLOW EXPECTED MOTION...ADDED THE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS THIS AREA OF THE CWA
HAS ESCAPED HEAVY RAIN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
UNCERTAINTY OVER EXACT LOCATIONS FOR STORMS...WILL OPT OUT OF ANY
FLOOD HEADLINES.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MODELS REMAIN RELATIVELY SIMILAR AND MAINTAIN DECENT 24 HOUR
CONTINUITY. POPS CONTINUE TO BE SPRINKLED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
WHILE FLATTER...MORE ZONAL-TYPE...UPPER FLOW PERSISTS. STILL
WATCHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A POSSIBLE ROUND OF STRONG
CONVECTION WITH A COLD FROPA AND MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PROGGED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RUNNING GENERALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR CIGS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH SOME
SCATTERED MVFR CIGS PUSHING FURTHER NORTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL
INTRODUCE MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN AT KABR AND KATY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
CIGS LIKELY FALLING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY WITH THE PRECIPITATION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 271709
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1209 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ACTIVE FORECAST WITH A COUPLE DIFFERENT ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 08Z RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICT SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS WANDERED SOUTH TOWARDS THE I-70
CORRIDOR.  SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY HAS LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TRAILING STRATIFORM MCS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.  FURTHER TO THE NORTH...LEADING EDGE OF THE ELEVATED
MOISTURE RETURN HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE BAND
OVER THE LAST HOUR ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.  HAVE
BOLSTERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IN
GENERAL...STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVERS WITH LIGHT FLOW IN
THE LOWEST 20K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A STEADY CLIMB IN PWAT VALUES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY APPROACHING THE TWO INCH THRESHOLD BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MODELS ARE
CONVECTIVELY POLLUTED BY TONIGHT...SO HARD TO PICK UP ON ANY
ELEVATED BOUNDARIES THAT MAY RESULT IN TRAINING OF ECHOS...BUT AM
MOST CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN SOUTHERN
TIER OF FORECAST AREA FROM DIXON TO IDA COUNTIES WHERE RAINFALL OVER
THE LAST WEEK HAS ACCUMULATED TO 2-4 INCHES AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR NOW.  NAM OFFERS THE FURTHEST NORTH AND MOST PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA.  SIDED CLOSER TO THESE SOLUTIONS...BUT HEDGED
TOWARDS THE SLOWER EVOLVING SOLUTIONS SINCE THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.

HAVE RAISED QPF VALUES FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH 1-2 INCHES
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT CERTAINLY POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
HIGHER AMOUNTS.  IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...HAVE SHRUNK THE DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION BY RAISING LOWS TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION AROUND.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE VERY SLOWLY EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF AS
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE MAINLY IMPACTING THE AREA IN
THE MORNING. THE NAM AND NMM PLACE THIS WAVE MUCH FURTHER NORTH NEAR
THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR...WHICH IS A STRONG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER
MODELS WHICH ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS BY
BRINGING THE WAVE THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA. HAVE THROWN OUT THIS
SOLUTION...SO EXPECT THE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME PRETTY HEFTY RAINFALL RATES TO MAINLY IMPACT OUR FAR EASTERN
CWA. AS THIS WAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

CONTINUED MOISTURE PRESENCE AND INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH THE
GRADUAL ARRIVE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
HALF...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SLOWLY DRYING FROM THE WEST EACH
PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED...SO HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES
DWINDLE SOMEWHAT...BUT THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE SOME RESIDUAL
CONCERN OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND SOME
ADDITIONAL RIVER AND STREAM RISES.

A BRIEF RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND TEMPERATURES FINALLY
RETURNING TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMALS ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY. MODELS POTENTIALLY BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORTWAVE BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL WET WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT. BUT WITH QUICKLY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. DID NOT ALTER ALLBLEND SOLUTION
MUCH GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH NEBRASKA THIS EVENING THEN EXPAND
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT AFTER 12Z ON THURSDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM







000
FXUS63 KFSD 271709
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1209 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ACTIVE FORECAST WITH A COUPLE DIFFERENT ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 08Z RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICT SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS WANDERED SOUTH TOWARDS THE I-70
CORRIDOR.  SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY HAS LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TRAILING STRATIFORM MCS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.  FURTHER TO THE NORTH...LEADING EDGE OF THE ELEVATED
MOISTURE RETURN HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE BAND
OVER THE LAST HOUR ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.  HAVE
BOLSTERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IN
GENERAL...STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVERS WITH LIGHT FLOW IN
THE LOWEST 20K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A STEADY CLIMB IN PWAT VALUES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY APPROACHING THE TWO INCH THRESHOLD BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MODELS ARE
CONVECTIVELY POLLUTED BY TONIGHT...SO HARD TO PICK UP ON ANY
ELEVATED BOUNDARIES THAT MAY RESULT IN TRAINING OF ECHOS...BUT AM
MOST CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN SOUTHERN
TIER OF FORECAST AREA FROM DIXON TO IDA COUNTIES WHERE RAINFALL OVER
THE LAST WEEK HAS ACCUMULATED TO 2-4 INCHES AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR NOW.  NAM OFFERS THE FURTHEST NORTH AND MOST PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA.  SIDED CLOSER TO THESE SOLUTIONS...BUT HEDGED
TOWARDS THE SLOWER EVOLVING SOLUTIONS SINCE THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.

HAVE RAISED QPF VALUES FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH 1-2 INCHES
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT CERTAINLY POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
HIGHER AMOUNTS.  IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...HAVE SHRUNK THE DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION BY RAISING LOWS TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION AROUND.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE VERY SLOWLY EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF AS
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE MAINLY IMPACTING THE AREA IN
THE MORNING. THE NAM AND NMM PLACE THIS WAVE MUCH FURTHER NORTH NEAR
THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR...WHICH IS A STRONG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER
MODELS WHICH ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS BY
BRINGING THE WAVE THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA. HAVE THROWN OUT THIS
SOLUTION...SO EXPECT THE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME PRETTY HEFTY RAINFALL RATES TO MAINLY IMPACT OUR FAR EASTERN
CWA. AS THIS WAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

CONTINUED MOISTURE PRESENCE AND INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH THE
GRADUAL ARRIVE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
HALF...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SLOWLY DRYING FROM THE WEST EACH
PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED...SO HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES
DWINDLE SOMEWHAT...BUT THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE SOME RESIDUAL
CONCERN OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND SOME
ADDITIONAL RIVER AND STREAM RISES.

A BRIEF RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND TEMPERATURES FINALLY
RETURNING TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMALS ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY. MODELS POTENTIALLY BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORTWAVE BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL WET WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT. BUT WITH QUICKLY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. DID NOT ALTER ALLBLEND SOLUTION
MUCH GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH NEBRASKA THIS EVENING THEN EXPAND
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT AFTER 12Z ON THURSDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM






000
FXUS63 KUNR 271646
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1046 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN WY TO
NORTHEAST KS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
UT...WITH TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AREAS OF FOG
LIFTING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN TWO AREAS. THE
MAIN AREA IS OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WY...MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LOW. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHTER
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEB INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
SD...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST. OUR AREA IS DRY AT THE MOMENT...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND ALSO DEVELOP
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WY/NORTHERN CO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SHARP
CUT-OFF TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS... LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS LOW WITH MAIN AREA OF INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

HAVE MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND RAISE THEM OVER THE BLACK HILLS
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD AT THE MOMENT...
BUT MAY HAVE TO TWEAK THEM A BIT LATER ON...DEPENDING ON CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NEVADA/UTAH WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AS THE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY PROPAGATES INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY THE BEST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES
OF PRECIP THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE COLORADO/NEBRASKA
AREA. MODELS ARE VARYING WITH TIMING OF WAVES AND HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND WITHIN THE CWA. EITHER WAY QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIMITED...EXCEPT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS
CROSSING AREAS NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO CLOUD COVER. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES THROUGH NEBRASKA/KANSAS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TWO MAIN SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE
PERIOD...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FRIDAY...AND A MORE ROBUST
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT PER WAVE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK. HOWEVER...SOME
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY PERIOD BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...MAINLY THE HANDLING OF
THE NW CONUS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY EJECTING IMPULSE. THE ECMWF HAS A
SOUTHERN BIAS TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF LSA PASSING THROUGH
THE FA AS OPPOSED TO A MORE NORTHERN TRACK IN THE GFS...WHICH IS
ALSO FASTER. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN THE FA HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITATIONS MAY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIP TOTALS THEN.

RETAINED PREV POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK AND
EXPANSION OF SLIGHT MENTION. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SFC TROUGH STALLING ACROSS THE SW HALF FRIDAY...WITH A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE. SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE ND RESULTING CAPE WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ESP OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. OTHERWISE...A MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SUPPORTING
INCREASING LSA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER SFC CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE REGION...SUPPORTING
MORE ELEVATED/CONVECTIVE CHANCES BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD DEFORMATION RAINS. HENCE...KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE CAT FOR NOW...ESP AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
EAST OUT OF THE REGION. KEPT MOST OF THE REGION DRY MONDAY THROUGH
TUES...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COMMENCING AND DRY PROFILES.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED MONDAY AND PERHAPS TUES BEHIND
SUNDAY/S COLD FRONT...ESP NW AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. AREAS ST/BR ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALONG/SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KPHP TO KCUT...ALTHOUGH FINAL NORTHERN
EDGE OF ST/BR WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA SHOULD REMAIN LARGE
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 271646
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1046 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN WY TO
NORTHEAST KS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
UT...WITH TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AREAS OF FOG
LIFTING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN TWO AREAS. THE
MAIN AREA IS OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WY...MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LOW. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHTER
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEB INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
SD...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST. OUR AREA IS DRY AT THE MOMENT...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND ALSO DEVELOP
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WY/NORTHERN CO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SHARP
CUT-OFF TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS... LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS LOW WITH MAIN AREA OF INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

HAVE MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND RAISE THEM OVER THE BLACK HILLS
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD AT THE MOMENT...
BUT MAY HAVE TO TWEAK THEM A BIT LATER ON...DEPENDING ON CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NEVADA/UTAH WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AS THE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY PROPAGATES INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY THE BEST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES
OF PRECIP THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE COLORADO/NEBRASKA
AREA. MODELS ARE VARYING WITH TIMING OF WAVES AND HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND WITHIN THE CWA. EITHER WAY QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIMITED...EXCEPT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS
CROSSING AREAS NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO CLOUD COVER. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES THROUGH NEBRASKA/KANSAS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TWO MAIN SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE
PERIOD...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FRIDAY...AND A MORE ROBUST
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT PER WAVE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK. HOWEVER...SOME
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY PERIOD BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...MAINLY THE HANDLING OF
THE NW CONUS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY EJECTING IMPULSE. THE ECMWF HAS A
SOUTHERN BIAS TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF LSA PASSING THROUGH
THE FA AS OPPOSED TO A MORE NORTHERN TRACK IN THE GFS...WHICH IS
ALSO FASTER. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN THE FA HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITATIONS MAY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIP TOTALS THEN.

RETAINED PREV POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK AND
EXPANSION OF SLIGHT MENTION. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SFC TROUGH STALLING ACROSS THE SW HALF FRIDAY...WITH A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE. SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE ND RESULTING CAPE WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ESP OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. OTHERWISE...A MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SUPPORTING
INCREASING LSA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER SFC CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE REGION...SUPPORTING
MORE ELEVATED/CONVECTIVE CHANCES BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD DEFORMATION RAINS. HENCE...KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE CAT FOR NOW...ESP AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
EAST OUT OF THE REGION. KEPT MOST OF THE REGION DRY MONDAY THROUGH
TUES...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COMMENCING AND DRY PROFILES.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED MONDAY AND PERHAPS TUES BEHIND
SUNDAY/S COLD FRONT...ESP NW AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. AREAS ST/BR ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALONG/SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KPHP TO KCUT...ALTHOUGH FINAL NORTHERN
EDGE OF ST/BR WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA SHOULD REMAIN LARGE
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 271646
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1046 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN WY TO
NORTHEAST KS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
UT...WITH TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AREAS OF FOG
LIFTING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN TWO AREAS. THE
MAIN AREA IS OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WY...MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LOW. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHTER
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEB INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
SD...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST. OUR AREA IS DRY AT THE MOMENT...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND ALSO DEVELOP
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WY/NORTHERN CO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SHARP
CUT-OFF TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS... LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS LOW WITH MAIN AREA OF INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

HAVE MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND RAISE THEM OVER THE BLACK HILLS
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD AT THE MOMENT...
BUT MAY HAVE TO TWEAK THEM A BIT LATER ON...DEPENDING ON CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NEVADA/UTAH WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AS THE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY PROPAGATES INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY THE BEST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES
OF PRECIP THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE COLORADO/NEBRASKA
AREA. MODELS ARE VARYING WITH TIMING OF WAVES AND HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND WITHIN THE CWA. EITHER WAY QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIMITED...EXCEPT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS
CROSSING AREAS NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO CLOUD COVER. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES THROUGH NEBRASKA/KANSAS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TWO MAIN SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE
PERIOD...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FRIDAY...AND A MORE ROBUST
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT PER WAVE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK. HOWEVER...SOME
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY PERIOD BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...MAINLY THE HANDLING OF
THE NW CONUS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY EJECTING IMPULSE. THE ECMWF HAS A
SOUTHERN BIAS TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF LSA PASSING THROUGH
THE FA AS OPPOSED TO A MORE NORTHERN TRACK IN THE GFS...WHICH IS
ALSO FASTER. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN THE FA HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITATIONS MAY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIP TOTALS THEN.

RETAINED PREV POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK AND
EXPANSION OF SLIGHT MENTION. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SFC TROUGH STALLING ACROSS THE SW HALF FRIDAY...WITH A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE. SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE ND RESULTING CAPE WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ESP OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. OTHERWISE...A MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SUPPORTING
INCREASING LSA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER SFC CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE REGION...SUPPORTING
MORE ELEVATED/CONVECTIVE CHANCES BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD DEFORMATION RAINS. HENCE...KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE CAT FOR NOW...ESP AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
EAST OUT OF THE REGION. KEPT MOST OF THE REGION DRY MONDAY THROUGH
TUES...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COMMENCING AND DRY PROFILES.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED MONDAY AND PERHAPS TUES BEHIND
SUNDAY/S COLD FRONT...ESP NW AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. AREAS ST/BR ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALONG/SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KPHP TO KCUT...ALTHOUGH FINAL NORTHERN
EDGE OF ST/BR WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA SHOULD REMAIN LARGE
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 271646
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1046 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN WY TO
NORTHEAST KS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
UT...WITH TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AREAS OF FOG
LIFTING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN TWO AREAS. THE
MAIN AREA IS OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WY...MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LOW. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHTER
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEB INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
SD...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST. OUR AREA IS DRY AT THE MOMENT...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND ALSO DEVELOP
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WY/NORTHERN CO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SHARP
CUT-OFF TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS... LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS LOW WITH MAIN AREA OF INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

HAVE MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND RAISE THEM OVER THE BLACK HILLS
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD AT THE MOMENT...
BUT MAY HAVE TO TWEAK THEM A BIT LATER ON...DEPENDING ON CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NEVADA/UTAH WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AS THE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY PROPAGATES INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY THE BEST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES
OF PRECIP THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE COLORADO/NEBRASKA
AREA. MODELS ARE VARYING WITH TIMING OF WAVES AND HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND WITHIN THE CWA. EITHER WAY QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIMITED...EXCEPT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS
CROSSING AREAS NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO CLOUD COVER. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES THROUGH NEBRASKA/KANSAS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TWO MAIN SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE
PERIOD...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FRIDAY...AND A MORE ROBUST
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT PER WAVE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK. HOWEVER...SOME
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY PERIOD BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...MAINLY THE HANDLING OF
THE NW CONUS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY EJECTING IMPULSE. THE ECMWF HAS A
SOUTHERN BIAS TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF LSA PASSING THROUGH
THE FA AS OPPOSED TO A MORE NORTHERN TRACK IN THE GFS...WHICH IS
ALSO FASTER. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN THE FA HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITATIONS MAY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIP TOTALS THEN.

RETAINED PREV POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK AND
EXPANSION OF SLIGHT MENTION. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SFC TROUGH STALLING ACROSS THE SW HALF FRIDAY...WITH A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE. SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE ND RESULTING CAPE WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ESP OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. OTHERWISE...A MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SUPPORTING
INCREASING LSA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER SFC CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE REGION...SUPPORTING
MORE ELEVATED/CONVECTIVE CHANCES BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD DEFORMATION RAINS. HENCE...KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE CAT FOR NOW...ESP AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
EAST OUT OF THE REGION. KEPT MOST OF THE REGION DRY MONDAY THROUGH
TUES...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COMMENCING AND DRY PROFILES.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED MONDAY AND PERHAPS TUES BEHIND
SUNDAY/S COLD FRONT...ESP NW AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. AREAS ST/BR ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALONG/SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KPHP TO KCUT...ALTHOUGH FINAL NORTHERN
EDGE OF ST/BR WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA SHOULD REMAIN LARGE
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 271612
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1012 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN WY TO
NORTHEAST KS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
UT...WITH TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AREAS OF FOG
LIFTING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN TWO AREAS. THE
MAIN AREA IS OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WY...MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LOW. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHTER
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEB INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
SD...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST. OUR AREA IS DRY AT THE MOMENT...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND ALSO DEVELOP
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WY/NORTHERN CO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SHARP
CUT-OFF TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS... LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS LOW WITH MAIN AREA OF INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

HAVE MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND RAISE THEM OVER THE BLACK HILLS
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD AT THE MOMENT...
BUT MAY HAVE TO TWEAK THEM A BIT LATER ON...DEPENDING ON CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NEVADA/UTAH WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AS THE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY PROPAGATES INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY THE BEST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES
OF PRECIP THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE COLORADO/NEBRASKA
AREA. MODELS ARE VARYING WITH TIMING OF WAVES AND HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND WITHIN THE CWA. EITHER WAY QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIMITED...EXCEPT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS
CROSSING AREAS NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO CLOUD COVER. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES THROUGH NEBRASKA/KANSAS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TWO MAIN SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE
PERIOD...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FRIDAY...AND A MORE ROBUST
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT PER WAVE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK. HOWEVER...SOME
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY PERIOD BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...MAINLY THE HANDLING OF
THE NW CONUS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY EJECTING IMPULSE. THE ECMWF HAS A
SOUTHERN BIAS TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF LSA PASSING THROUGH
THE FA AS OPPOSED TO A MORE NORTHERN TRACK IN THE GFS...WHICH IS
ALSO FASTER. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN THE FA HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITATIONS MAY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIP TOTALS THEN.

RETAINED PREV POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK AND
EXPANSION OF SLIGHT MENTION. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SFC TROUGH STALLING ACROSS THE SW HALF FRIDAY...WITH A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE. SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE ND RESULTING CAPE WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ESP OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. OTHERWISE...A MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SUPPORTING
INCREASING LSA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER SFC CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE REGION...SUPPORTING
MORE ELEVATED/CONVECTIVE CHANCES BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD DEFORMATION RAINS. HENCE...KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE CAT FOR NOW...ESP AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
EAST OUT OF THE REGION. KEPT MOST OF THE REGION DRY MONDAY THROUGH
TUES...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COMMENCING AND DRY PROFILES.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED MONDAY AND PERHAPS TUES BEHIND
SUNDAY/S COLD FRONT...ESP NW AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

SCT-ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES CROSS THE
REGION. LCL MVFR/IFR CONDS EXP WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
ADDITIONALLY...IFR CIGS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS SW AND SCENTRAL
SD THIS MORNING...WITH CIGS TRENDING TO MVFR LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD THERE. WINDS WILL
VEER SE AROUND KRAP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS TO SPREAD INTO THE RAP TERMINAL THEN. HAVE HINTED AT THIS IN
THE TAF.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 271612
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1012 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN WY TO
NORTHEAST KS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
UT...WITH TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AREAS OF FOG
LIFTING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN TWO AREAS. THE
MAIN AREA IS OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WY...MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LOW. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHTER
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEB INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
SD...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST. OUR AREA IS DRY AT THE MOMENT...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND ALSO DEVELOP
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WY/NORTHERN CO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SHARP
CUT-OFF TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS... LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS LOW WITH MAIN AREA OF INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

HAVE MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND RAISE THEM OVER THE BLACK HILLS
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD AT THE MOMENT...
BUT MAY HAVE TO TWEAK THEM A BIT LATER ON...DEPENDING ON CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NEVADA/UTAH WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AS THE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY PROPAGATES INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY THE BEST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES
OF PRECIP THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE COLORADO/NEBRASKA
AREA. MODELS ARE VARYING WITH TIMING OF WAVES AND HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND WITHIN THE CWA. EITHER WAY QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIMITED...EXCEPT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS
CROSSING AREAS NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO CLOUD COVER. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES THROUGH NEBRASKA/KANSAS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TWO MAIN SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE
PERIOD...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FRIDAY...AND A MORE ROBUST
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT PER WAVE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK. HOWEVER...SOME
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY PERIOD BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...MAINLY THE HANDLING OF
THE NW CONUS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY EJECTING IMPULSE. THE ECMWF HAS A
SOUTHERN BIAS TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF LSA PASSING THROUGH
THE FA AS OPPOSED TO A MORE NORTHERN TRACK IN THE GFS...WHICH IS
ALSO FASTER. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN THE FA HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITATIONS MAY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIP TOTALS THEN.

RETAINED PREV POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK AND
EXPANSION OF SLIGHT MENTION. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SFC TROUGH STALLING ACROSS THE SW HALF FRIDAY...WITH A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE. SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE ND RESULTING CAPE WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ESP OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. OTHERWISE...A MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SUPPORTING
INCREASING LSA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER SFC CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE REGION...SUPPORTING
MORE ELEVATED/CONVECTIVE CHANCES BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD DEFORMATION RAINS. HENCE...KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE CAT FOR NOW...ESP AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
EAST OUT OF THE REGION. KEPT MOST OF THE REGION DRY MONDAY THROUGH
TUES...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COMMENCING AND DRY PROFILES.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED MONDAY AND PERHAPS TUES BEHIND
SUNDAY/S COLD FRONT...ESP NW AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

SCT-ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES CROSS THE
REGION. LCL MVFR/IFR CONDS EXP WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
ADDITIONALLY...IFR CIGS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS SW AND SCENTRAL
SD THIS MORNING...WITH CIGS TRENDING TO MVFR LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD THERE. WINDS WILL
VEER SE AROUND KRAP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS TO SPREAD INTO THE RAP TERMINAL THEN. HAVE HINTED AT THIS IN
THE TAF.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 271612
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1012 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN WY TO
NORTHEAST KS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
UT...WITH TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AREAS OF FOG
LIFTING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN TWO AREAS. THE
MAIN AREA IS OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WY...MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LOW. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHTER
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEB INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
SD...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST. OUR AREA IS DRY AT THE MOMENT...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND ALSO DEVELOP
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WY/NORTHERN CO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SHARP
CUT-OFF TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS... LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS LOW WITH MAIN AREA OF INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

HAVE MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND RAISE THEM OVER THE BLACK HILLS
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD AT THE MOMENT...
BUT MAY HAVE TO TWEAK THEM A BIT LATER ON...DEPENDING ON CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NEVADA/UTAH WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AS THE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY PROPAGATES INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY THE BEST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES
OF PRECIP THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE COLORADO/NEBRASKA
AREA. MODELS ARE VARYING WITH TIMING OF WAVES AND HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND WITHIN THE CWA. EITHER WAY QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIMITED...EXCEPT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS
CROSSING AREAS NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO CLOUD COVER. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES THROUGH NEBRASKA/KANSAS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TWO MAIN SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE
PERIOD...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FRIDAY...AND A MORE ROBUST
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT PER WAVE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK. HOWEVER...SOME
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY PERIOD BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...MAINLY THE HANDLING OF
THE NW CONUS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY EJECTING IMPULSE. THE ECMWF HAS A
SOUTHERN BIAS TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF LSA PASSING THROUGH
THE FA AS OPPOSED TO A MORE NORTHERN TRACK IN THE GFS...WHICH IS
ALSO FASTER. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN THE FA HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITATIONS MAY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIP TOTALS THEN.

RETAINED PREV POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK AND
EXPANSION OF SLIGHT MENTION. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SFC TROUGH STALLING ACROSS THE SW HALF FRIDAY...WITH A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE. SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE ND RESULTING CAPE WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ESP OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. OTHERWISE...A MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SUPPORTING
INCREASING LSA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER SFC CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE REGION...SUPPORTING
MORE ELEVATED/CONVECTIVE CHANCES BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD DEFORMATION RAINS. HENCE...KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE CAT FOR NOW...ESP AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
EAST OUT OF THE REGION. KEPT MOST OF THE REGION DRY MONDAY THROUGH
TUES...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COMMENCING AND DRY PROFILES.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED MONDAY AND PERHAPS TUES BEHIND
SUNDAY/S COLD FRONT...ESP NW AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

SCT-ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES CROSS THE
REGION. LCL MVFR/IFR CONDS EXP WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
ADDITIONALLY...IFR CIGS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS SW AND SCENTRAL
SD THIS MORNING...WITH CIGS TRENDING TO MVFR LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD THERE. WINDS WILL
VEER SE AROUND KRAP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS TO SPREAD INTO THE RAP TERMINAL THEN. HAVE HINTED AT THIS IN
THE TAF.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 271612
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1012 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN WY TO
NORTHEAST KS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
UT...WITH TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AREAS OF FOG
LIFTING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN TWO AREAS. THE
MAIN AREA IS OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WY...MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LOW. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHTER
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEB INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
SD...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST. OUR AREA IS DRY AT THE MOMENT...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND ALSO DEVELOP
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WY/NORTHERN CO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SHARP
CUT-OFF TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS... LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS LOW WITH MAIN AREA OF INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

HAVE MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND RAISE THEM OVER THE BLACK HILLS
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD AT THE MOMENT...
BUT MAY HAVE TO TWEAK THEM A BIT LATER ON...DEPENDING ON CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NEVADA/UTAH WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AS THE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY PROPAGATES INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY THE BEST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES
OF PRECIP THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE COLORADO/NEBRASKA
AREA. MODELS ARE VARYING WITH TIMING OF WAVES AND HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND WITHIN THE CWA. EITHER WAY QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIMITED...EXCEPT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS
CROSSING AREAS NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO CLOUD COVER. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES THROUGH NEBRASKA/KANSAS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TWO MAIN SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE
PERIOD...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FRIDAY...AND A MORE ROBUST
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT PER WAVE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK. HOWEVER...SOME
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY PERIOD BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...MAINLY THE HANDLING OF
THE NW CONUS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY EJECTING IMPULSE. THE ECMWF HAS A
SOUTHERN BIAS TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF LSA PASSING THROUGH
THE FA AS OPPOSED TO A MORE NORTHERN TRACK IN THE GFS...WHICH IS
ALSO FASTER. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN THE FA HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITATIONS MAY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIP TOTALS THEN.

RETAINED PREV POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK AND
EXPANSION OF SLIGHT MENTION. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SFC TROUGH STALLING ACROSS THE SW HALF FRIDAY...WITH A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE. SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE ND RESULTING CAPE WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ESP OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. OTHERWISE...A MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SUPPORTING
INCREASING LSA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER SFC CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE REGION...SUPPORTING
MORE ELEVATED/CONVECTIVE CHANCES BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD DEFORMATION RAINS. HENCE...KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE CAT FOR NOW...ESP AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
EAST OUT OF THE REGION. KEPT MOST OF THE REGION DRY MONDAY THROUGH
TUES...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COMMENCING AND DRY PROFILES.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED MONDAY AND PERHAPS TUES BEHIND
SUNDAY/S COLD FRONT...ESP NW AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

SCT-ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES CROSS THE
REGION. LCL MVFR/IFR CONDS EXP WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
ADDITIONALLY...IFR CIGS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS SW AND SCENTRAL
SD THIS MORNING...WITH CIGS TRENDING TO MVFR LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD THERE. WINDS WILL
VEER SE AROUND KRAP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS TO SPREAD INTO THE RAP TERMINAL THEN. HAVE HINTED AT THIS IN
THE TAF.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KABR 271551 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1051 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS OKAY FOR NOW...NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BACK OUT OF THE CWA...AND A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AM.

MAIN THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT/THURSDAY...UNFORTUNATELY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THANKS
TO RATHER STRIKING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS.

NAM PROVIDES A MUCH BETTER JET SIGNATURE AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER LOW...AND A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK. THIS PUSHES THE QPF BULLSEYE WELL INTO THE CWA. THE NAM
TREND HAS EXISTED SINCE 18Z AND IS CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSED WITHIN THE
06Z RUN. SREF AND GEM/ECMWF HAVE A SOMEWHAT LESS NORTHERLY EXTREME
BUT THE SREF HAS PROBABILITIES GREATER THEN 2 INCHES FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND BOTH THE GEM/ECMWF BRING THE
PRECIPITATION BULLSEYE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO BE CONCERNED.
THE GFS IS THE SOUTHERLY OUTLIER.

NAM SUGGEST GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION WITH MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES...AND LESS THEN 500 J/KG CAPE. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 20 TO
30 MICROBARS OF LIFT ALONG A NARROW EAST WEST AXIS WITH A SLOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. SINCE STORMS ARE LIKELY DOMINATED BY WARM
CLOUD PROCESSES WITH SLOW EXPECTED MOTION...ADDED THE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS THIS AREA OF THE CWA
HAS ESCAPED HEAVY RAIN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
UNCERTAINTY OVER EXACT LOCATIONS FOR STORMS...WILL OPT OUT OF ANY
FLOOD HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

MODELS REMAIN RELATIVELY SIMILAR AND MAINTAIN DECENT 24 HOUR
CONTINUITY. POPS CONTINUE TO BE SPRINKLED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
WHILE FLATTER...MORE ZONAL-TYPE...UPPER FLOW PERSISTS. STILL
WATCHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A POSSIBLE ROUND OF STRONG
CONVECTION WITH A COLD FROPA AND MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PROGGED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RUNNING GENERALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AT KPIR. IFR/MVFR FOG AND/OR
LOW STRATUS COULD STILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO MAINLY
AT KMBG AND KABR AS WELL.

FLT CAT IS EXPECTED TO STEADY OUT IN MVFR RANGE /CIGS/ AT KPIR AND
KMBG THIS MORNING AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF TODAY. KABR
AND KATY HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF MAINTAINING VFR FLYING
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES START PICKING UP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPIR...PERSISTING WELL INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE SWITCHING OVER
AND BECOMING MOST PROBABLE AT KATY BY LATE THIS EVENING AND
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 271551 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1051 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS OKAY FOR NOW...NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BACK OUT OF THE CWA...AND A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AM.

MAIN THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT/THURSDAY...UNFORTUNATELY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THANKS
TO RATHER STRIKING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS.

NAM PROVIDES A MUCH BETTER JET SIGNATURE AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER LOW...AND A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK. THIS PUSHES THE QPF BULLSEYE WELL INTO THE CWA. THE NAM
TREND HAS EXISTED SINCE 18Z AND IS CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSED WITHIN THE
06Z RUN. SREF AND GEM/ECMWF HAVE A SOMEWHAT LESS NORTHERLY EXTREME
BUT THE SREF HAS PROBABILITIES GREATER THEN 2 INCHES FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND BOTH THE GEM/ECMWF BRING THE
PRECIPITATION BULLSEYE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO BE CONCERNED.
THE GFS IS THE SOUTHERLY OUTLIER.

NAM SUGGEST GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION WITH MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES...AND LESS THEN 500 J/KG CAPE. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 20 TO
30 MICROBARS OF LIFT ALONG A NARROW EAST WEST AXIS WITH A SLOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. SINCE STORMS ARE LIKELY DOMINATED BY WARM
CLOUD PROCESSES WITH SLOW EXPECTED MOTION...ADDED THE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS THIS AREA OF THE CWA
HAS ESCAPED HEAVY RAIN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
UNCERTAINTY OVER EXACT LOCATIONS FOR STORMS...WILL OPT OUT OF ANY
FLOOD HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

MODELS REMAIN RELATIVELY SIMILAR AND MAINTAIN DECENT 24 HOUR
CONTINUITY. POPS CONTINUE TO BE SPRINKLED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
WHILE FLATTER...MORE ZONAL-TYPE...UPPER FLOW PERSISTS. STILL
WATCHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A POSSIBLE ROUND OF STRONG
CONVECTION WITH A COLD FROPA AND MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PROGGED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RUNNING GENERALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AT KPIR. IFR/MVFR FOG AND/OR
LOW STRATUS COULD STILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO MAINLY
AT KMBG AND KABR AS WELL.

FLT CAT IS EXPECTED TO STEADY OUT IN MVFR RANGE /CIGS/ AT KPIR AND
KMBG THIS MORNING AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF TODAY. KABR
AND KATY HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF MAINTAINING VFR FLYING
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES START PICKING UP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPIR...PERSISTING WELL INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE SWITCHING OVER
AND BECOMING MOST PROBABLE AT KATY BY LATE THIS EVENING AND
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 271233 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
733 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
TOSSED IN SOME FOG MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...PER
REGIONAL FOG PRODUCT AND AREA WEBCAMS.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BACK OUT OF THE CWA...AND A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AM.

MAIN THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT/THURSDAY...UNFORTUNATELY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THANKS
TO RATHER STRIKING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS.

NAM PROVIDES A MUCH BETTER JET SIGNATURE AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENISIS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER LOW...AND A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK. THIS PUSHES THE QPF BULLSEYE WELL INTO THE CWA. THE NAM
TREND HAS EXISTED SINCE 18Z AND IS CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSED WITHIN
THE 06Z RUN. SREF AND GEM/ECMWF HAVE A SOMEWHAT LESS NORTHERLY
EXTREME BUT THE SREF HAS PROBABILITIES GREATER THEN 2 INCHES FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND BOTH THE GEM/ECMWF BRING THE
PRECIPITATION BULLSEYE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO BE CONCERNED.
THE GFS IS THE SOUTHERLY OUTLIER.

NAM SUGGEST GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION WITH MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES...AND LESS THEN 500 J/KG CAPE. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 20 TO
30 MICROBARS OF LIFT ALONG A NARROW EAST WEST AXIS WITH A SLOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. SINCE STORMS ARE LIKELY DOMINATED BY WARM
CLOUD PROCESSES WITH SLOW EXPECTED MOTION...ADDED THE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS THIS AREA OF THE CWA
HAS ESCAPED HEAVY RAIN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
UNCERTAINTY OVER EXACT LOCATIONS FOR STORMS...WILL OPT OUT OF ANY
FLOOD HEADLINES.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MODELS REMAIN RELATIVELY SIMILAR AND MAINTAIN DECENT 24 HOUR
CONTINUITY. POPS CONTINUE TO BE SPRINKLED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
WHILE FLATTER...MORE ZONAL-TYPE...UPPER FLOW PERSISTS. STILL
WATCHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A POSSIBLE ROUND OF STRONG
CONVECTION WITH A COLD FROPA AND MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PROGGED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RUNNING GENERALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AT KPIR. IFR/MVFR FOG AND/OR
LOW STRATUS COULD STILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO MAINLY
AT KMBG AND KABR AS WELL.

FLT CAT IS EXPECTED TO STEADY OUT IN MVFR RANGE /CIGS/ AT KPIR AND
KMBG THIS MORNING AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF TODAY. KABR
AND KATY HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF MAINTAINING VFR FLYING
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES START PICKING UP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPIR...PERSISTING WELL INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE SWITCHING OVER
AND BECOMING MOST PROBABLE AT KATY BY LATE THIS EVENING AND
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 271233 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
733 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
TOSSED IN SOME FOG MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...PER
REGIONAL FOG PRODUCT AND AREA WEBCAMS.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BACK OUT OF THE CWA...AND A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AM.

MAIN THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT/THURSDAY...UNFORTUNATELY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THANKS
TO RATHER STRIKING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS.

NAM PROVIDES A MUCH BETTER JET SIGNATURE AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENISIS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER LOW...AND A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK. THIS PUSHES THE QPF BULLSEYE WELL INTO THE CWA. THE NAM
TREND HAS EXISTED SINCE 18Z AND IS CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSED WITHIN
THE 06Z RUN. SREF AND GEM/ECMWF HAVE A SOMEWHAT LESS NORTHERLY
EXTREME BUT THE SREF HAS PROBABILITIES GREATER THEN 2 INCHES FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND BOTH THE GEM/ECMWF BRING THE
PRECIPITATION BULLSEYE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO BE CONCERNED.
THE GFS IS THE SOUTHERLY OUTLIER.

NAM SUGGEST GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION WITH MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES...AND LESS THEN 500 J/KG CAPE. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 20 TO
30 MICROBARS OF LIFT ALONG A NARROW EAST WEST AXIS WITH A SLOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. SINCE STORMS ARE LIKELY DOMINATED BY WARM
CLOUD PROCESSES WITH SLOW EXPECTED MOTION...ADDED THE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS THIS AREA OF THE CWA
HAS ESCAPED HEAVY RAIN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
UNCERTAINTY OVER EXACT LOCATIONS FOR STORMS...WILL OPT OUT OF ANY
FLOOD HEADLINES.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MODELS REMAIN RELATIVELY SIMILAR AND MAINTAIN DECENT 24 HOUR
CONTINUITY. POPS CONTINUE TO BE SPRINKLED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
WHILE FLATTER...MORE ZONAL-TYPE...UPPER FLOW PERSISTS. STILL
WATCHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A POSSIBLE ROUND OF STRONG
CONVECTION WITH A COLD FROPA AND MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PROGGED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RUNNING GENERALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AT KPIR. IFR/MVFR FOG AND/OR
LOW STRATUS COULD STILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO MAINLY
AT KMBG AND KABR AS WELL.

FLT CAT IS EXPECTED TO STEADY OUT IN MVFR RANGE /CIGS/ AT KPIR AND
KMBG THIS MORNING AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF TODAY. KABR
AND KATY HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF MAINTAINING VFR FLYING
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES START PICKING UP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPIR...PERSISTING WELL INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE SWITCHING OVER
AND BECOMING MOST PROBABLE AT KATY BY LATE THIS EVENING AND
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 271145 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
645 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BACK OUT OF THE CWA...AND A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AM.

MAIN THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT/THURSDAY...UNFORTUNATELY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THANKS
TO RATHER STRIKING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS.

NAM PROVIDES A MUCH BETTER JET SIGNATURE AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENISIS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER LOW...AND A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK. THIS PUSHES THE QPF BULLSEYE WELL INTO THE CWA. THE NAM
TREND HAS EXISTED SINCE 18Z AND IS CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSED WITHIN
THE 06Z RUN. SREF AND GEM/ECMWF HAVE A SOMEWHAT LESS NORTHERLY
EXTREME BUT THE SREF HAS PROBABILITIES GREATER THEN 2 INCHES FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND BOTH THE GEM/ECMWF BRING THE
PRECIPITATION BULLSEYE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO BE CONCERNED.
THE GFS IS THE SOUTHERLY OUTLIER.

NAM SUGGEST GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION WITH MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES...AND LESS THEN 500 J/KG CAPE. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 20 TO
30 MICROBARS OF LIFT ALONG A NARROW EAST WEST AXIS WITH A SLOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. SINCE STORMS ARE LIKELY DOMINATED BY WARM
CLOUD PROCESSES WITH SLOW EXPECTED MOTION...ADDED THE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS THIS AREA OF THE CWA
HAS ESCAPED HEAVY RAIN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
UNCERTAINTY OVER EXACT LOCATIONS FOR STORMS...WILL OPT OUT OF ANY
FLOOD HEADLINES.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MODELS REMAIN RELATIVELY SIMILAR AND MAINTAIN DECENT 24 HOUR
CONTINUITY. POPS CONTINUE TO BE SPRINKLED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
WHILE FLATTER...MORE ZONAL-TYPE...UPPER FLOW PERSISTS. STILL
WATCHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A POSSIBLE ROUND OF STRONG
CONVECTION WITH A COLD FROPA AND MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PROGGED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RUNNING GENERALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AT KPIR. IFR/MVFR FOG
AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD STILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
MAINLY AT KMBG AND KABR AS WELL.

FLT CAT IS EXPECTED TO STEADY OUT IN MVFR RANGE /CIGS/ AT KPIR AND
KMBG THIS MORNING AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF TODAY.
KABR AND KATY HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF MAINTAINING VFR FLYING
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES START PICKING UP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPIR...PERSISTING WELL INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE SWITCHING OVER
AND BECOMING MOST PROBABLE AT KATY BY LATE THIS EVENING AND
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 271145 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
645 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BACK OUT OF THE CWA...AND A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AM.

MAIN THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT/THURSDAY...UNFORTUNATELY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THANKS
TO RATHER STRIKING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS.

NAM PROVIDES A MUCH BETTER JET SIGNATURE AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENISIS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER LOW...AND A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK. THIS PUSHES THE QPF BULLSEYE WELL INTO THE CWA. THE NAM
TREND HAS EXISTED SINCE 18Z AND IS CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSED WITHIN
THE 06Z RUN. SREF AND GEM/ECMWF HAVE A SOMEWHAT LESS NORTHERLY
EXTREME BUT THE SREF HAS PROBABILITIES GREATER THEN 2 INCHES FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND BOTH THE GEM/ECMWF BRING THE
PRECIPITATION BULLSEYE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO BE CONCERNED.
THE GFS IS THE SOUTHERLY OUTLIER.

NAM SUGGEST GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION WITH MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES...AND LESS THEN 500 J/KG CAPE. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 20 TO
30 MICROBARS OF LIFT ALONG A NARROW EAST WEST AXIS WITH A SLOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. SINCE STORMS ARE LIKELY DOMINATED BY WARM
CLOUD PROCESSES WITH SLOW EXPECTED MOTION...ADDED THE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS THIS AREA OF THE CWA
HAS ESCAPED HEAVY RAIN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
UNCERTAINTY OVER EXACT LOCATIONS FOR STORMS...WILL OPT OUT OF ANY
FLOOD HEADLINES.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MODELS REMAIN RELATIVELY SIMILAR AND MAINTAIN DECENT 24 HOUR
CONTINUITY. POPS CONTINUE TO BE SPRINKLED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
WHILE FLATTER...MORE ZONAL-TYPE...UPPER FLOW PERSISTS. STILL
WATCHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A POSSIBLE ROUND OF STRONG
CONVECTION WITH A COLD FROPA AND MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PROGGED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RUNNING GENERALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AT KPIR. IFR/MVFR FOG
AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD STILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
MAINLY AT KMBG AND KABR AS WELL.

FLT CAT IS EXPECTED TO STEADY OUT IN MVFR RANGE /CIGS/ AT KPIR AND
KMBG THIS MORNING AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF TODAY.
KABR AND KATY HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF MAINTAINING VFR FLYING
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES START PICKING UP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPIR...PERSISTING WELL INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE SWITCHING OVER
AND BECOMING MOST PROBABLE AT KATY BY LATE THIS EVENING AND
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 271145
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
645 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ACTIVE FORECAST WITH A COUPLE DIFFERENT ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 08Z RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICT SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS WANDERED SOUTH TOWARDS THE I-70
CORRIDOR.  SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY HAS LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TRAILING STRATIFORM MCS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.  FURTHER TO THE NORTH...LEADING EDGE OF THE ELEVATED
MOISTURE RETURN HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE BAND
OVER THE LAST HOUR ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.  HAVE
BOLSTERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IN
GENERAL...STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVERS WITH LIGHT FLOW IN
THE LOWEST 20K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A STEADY CLIMB IN PWAT VALUES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY APPROACHING THE TWO INCH THRESHOLD BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MODELS ARE
CONVECTIVELY POLLUTED BY TONIGHT...SO HARD TO PICK UP ON ANY
ELEVATED BOUNDARIES THAT MAY RESULT IN TRAINING OF ECHOS...BUT AM
MOST CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN SOUTHERN
TIER OF FORECAST AREA FROM DIXON TO IDA COUNTIES WHERE RAINFALL OVER
THE LAST WEEK HAS ACCUMULATED TO 2-4 INCHES AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR NOW.  NAM OFFERS THE FURTHEST NORTH AND MOST PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA.  SIDED CLOSER TO THESE SOLUTIONS...BUT HEDGED
TOWARDS THE SLOWER EVOLVING SOLUTIONS SINCE THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.

HAVE RAISED QPF VALUES FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH 1-2 INCHES
FORECASET ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT CERTAINLY POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
HIGHER AMOUNTS.  IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...HAVE SHRUNK THE DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION BY RAISING LOWS TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION AROUND.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE VERY SLOWLY EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF AS
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE MAINLY IMPACTING THE AREA IN
THE MORNING. THE NAM AND NMM PLACE THIS WAVE MUCH FURTHER NORTH NEAR
THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR...WHICH IS A STRONG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER
MODELS WHICH ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS BY
BRINGING THE WAVE THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA. HAVE THROWN OUT THIS
SOLUTION...SO EXPECT THE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME PRETTY HEFTY RAINFALL RATES TO MAINLY IMPACT OUR FAR EASTERN
CWA. AS THIS WAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

CONTINUED MOISTURE PRESENCE AND INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH THE
GRADUAL ARRIVE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
HALF...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SLOWLY DRYING FROM THE WEST EACH
PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED...SO HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES
DWINDLE SOMEWHAT...BUT THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE SOME RESIDUAL
CONCERN OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND SOME
ADDITIONAL RIVER AND STREAM RISES.

A BRIEF RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND TEMPERATURES FINALLY
RETURNING TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMALS ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY. MODELS POTENTIALLY BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORTWAVE BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL WET WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT. BUT WITH QUICKLY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. DID NOT ALTER ALLBLEND SOLUTION
MUCH GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL LIKELY IMPACT KSUX TERMINAL AFTER 13Z
THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAYBE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOWER STRATUS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-90 WILL LIKELY BE STUBBORN TO LIFT TODAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE...AND HAVE WRITTEN SOME PESSIMISTIC TAFS WITH
REGARDS TO CEILINGS IN BOTH KSUX AND KFSD. EXPECT TO SEE A
RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...WITH THE POENTIAL OF
HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND LOW CEILINGS. EXPECT LOW
CEILINGS TO HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THURSDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...






000
FXUS63 KFSD 271145
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
645 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ACTIVE FORECAST WITH A COUPLE DIFFERENT ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 08Z RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICT SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS WANDERED SOUTH TOWARDS THE I-70
CORRIDOR.  SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY HAS LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TRAILING STRATIFORM MCS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.  FURTHER TO THE NORTH...LEADING EDGE OF THE ELEVATED
MOISTURE RETURN HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE BAND
OVER THE LAST HOUR ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.  HAVE
BOLSTERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IN
GENERAL...STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVERS WITH LIGHT FLOW IN
THE LOWEST 20K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A STEADY CLIMB IN PWAT VALUES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY APPROACHING THE TWO INCH THRESHOLD BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MODELS ARE
CONVECTIVELY POLLUTED BY TONIGHT...SO HARD TO PICK UP ON ANY
ELEVATED BOUNDARIES THAT MAY RESULT IN TRAINING OF ECHOS...BUT AM
MOST CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN SOUTHERN
TIER OF FORECAST AREA FROM DIXON TO IDA COUNTIES WHERE RAINFALL OVER
THE LAST WEEK HAS ACCUMULATED TO 2-4 INCHES AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR NOW.  NAM OFFERS THE FURTHEST NORTH AND MOST PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA.  SIDED CLOSER TO THESE SOLUTIONS...BUT HEDGED
TOWARDS THE SLOWER EVOLVING SOLUTIONS SINCE THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.

HAVE RAISED QPF VALUES FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH 1-2 INCHES
FORECASET ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT CERTAINLY POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
HIGHER AMOUNTS.  IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...HAVE SHRUNK THE DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION BY RAISING LOWS TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION AROUND.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE VERY SLOWLY EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF AS
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE MAINLY IMPACTING THE AREA IN
THE MORNING. THE NAM AND NMM PLACE THIS WAVE MUCH FURTHER NORTH NEAR
THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR...WHICH IS A STRONG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER
MODELS WHICH ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS BY
BRINGING THE WAVE THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA. HAVE THROWN OUT THIS
SOLUTION...SO EXPECT THE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME PRETTY HEFTY RAINFALL RATES TO MAINLY IMPACT OUR FAR EASTERN
CWA. AS THIS WAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

CONTINUED MOISTURE PRESENCE AND INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH THE
GRADUAL ARRIVE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
HALF...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SLOWLY DRYING FROM THE WEST EACH
PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED...SO HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES
DWINDLE SOMEWHAT...BUT THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE SOME RESIDUAL
CONCERN OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND SOME
ADDITIONAL RIVER AND STREAM RISES.

A BRIEF RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND TEMPERATURES FINALLY
RETURNING TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMALS ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY. MODELS POTENTIALLY BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORTWAVE BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL WET WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT. BUT WITH QUICKLY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. DID NOT ALTER ALLBLEND SOLUTION
MUCH GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL LIKELY IMPACT KSUX TERMINAL AFTER 13Z
THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAYBE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOWER STRATUS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-90 WILL LIKELY BE STUBBORN TO LIFT TODAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE...AND HAVE WRITTEN SOME PESSIMISTIC TAFS WITH
REGARDS TO CEILINGS IN BOTH KSUX AND KFSD. EXPECT TO SEE A
RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...WITH THE POENTIAL OF
HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND LOW CEILINGS. EXPECT LOW
CEILINGS TO HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THURSDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...







000
FXUS63 KFSD 270943
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
443 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ACTIVE FORECAST WITH A COUPLE DIFFERENT ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 08Z RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICT SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS WANDERED SOUTH TOWARDS THE I-70
CORRIDOR.  SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY HAS LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TRAILING STRATIFORM MCS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.  FURTHER TO THE NORTH...LEADING EDGE OF THE ELEVATED
MOISTURE RETURN HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE BAND
OVER THE LAST HOUR ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.  HAVE
BOLSTERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IN
GENERAL...STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVERS WITH LIGHT FLOW IN
THE LOWEST 20K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A STEADY CLIMB IN PWAT VALUES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY APPROACHING THE TWO INCH THRESHOLD BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MODELS ARE
CONVECTIVELY POLLUTED BY TONIGHT...SO HARD TO PICK UP ON ANY
ELEVATED BOUNDARIES THAT MAY RESULT IN TRAINING OF ECHOS...BUT AM
MOST CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN SOUTHERN
TIER OF FORECAST AREA FROM DIXON TO IDA COUNTIES WHERE RAINFALL OVER
THE LAST WEEK HAS ACCUMULATED TO 2-4 INCHES AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR NOW.  NAM OFFERS THE FURTHEST NORTH AND MOST PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA.  SIDED CLOSER TO THESE SOLUTIONS...BUT HEDGED
TOWARDS THE SLOWER EVOLVING SOLUTIONS SINCE THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.

HAVE RAISED QPF VALUES FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH 1-2 INCHES
FORECASET ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT CERTAINLY POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
HIGHER AMOUNTS.  IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...HAVE SHRUNK THE DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION BY RAISING LOWS TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION AROUND.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE VERY SLOWLY EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF AS
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE MAINLY IMPACTING THE AREA IN
THE MORNING. THE NAM AND NMM PLACE THIS WAVE MUCH FURTHER NORTH NEAR
THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR...WHICH IS A STRONG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER
MODELS WHICH ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS BY
BRINGING THE WAVE THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA. HAVE THROWN OUT THIS
SOLUTION...SO EXPECT THE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME PRETTY HEFTY RAINFALL RATES TO MAINLY IMPACT OUR FAR EASTERN
CWA. AS THIS WAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

CONTINUED MOISTURE PRESENCE AND INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH THE
GRADUAL ARRIVE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
HALF...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SLOWLY DRYING FROM THE WEST EACH
PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED...SO HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES
DWINDLE SOMEWHAT...BUT THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE SOME RESIDUAL
CONCERN OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND SOME
ADDITIONAL RIVER AND STREAM RISES.

A BRIEF RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND TEMPERATURES FINALLY
RETURNING TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMALS ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY. MODELS POTENTIALLY BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORTWAVE BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL WET WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT. BUT WITH QUICKLY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. DID NOT ALTER ALLBLEND SOLUTION
MUCH GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
RAPIDLY FORM AFTER 09Z SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HOWEVER LATEST
MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY VERY WELL STAY SOUTH OF KSUX
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THEN WEAKEN BEFORE ANYTHING REAL HEAVY GETS
TOO FAR NORTH. AGAIN THIS SOLUTION IS NOT A SURE BET...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON LOWER VIS AND CIGS IN TSRA HAS DECREASED AT KSUX. THUS
FOR NOW WILL REMOVE MENTION IN THE TAFS...AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT
MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MAY THUS END UP
DRY...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER AND
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...AND MAYBE SOME SCATTERED MVFR STRATOCU.
CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH EXACT
LOCATION AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. WOULD LIKELY HAVE MVFR OR IFR
REDUCTIONS IN ANY STORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY. ADDED IN TEMPO
GROUPS AFTER 03Z AT KFSD AND KSUX...AS AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS LIKE
THE MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THAT TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD







000
FXUS63 KFSD 270943
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
443 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ACTIVE FORECAST WITH A COUPLE DIFFERENT ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 08Z RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICT SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS WANDERED SOUTH TOWARDS THE I-70
CORRIDOR.  SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY HAS LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TRAILING STRATIFORM MCS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.  FURTHER TO THE NORTH...LEADING EDGE OF THE ELEVATED
MOISTURE RETURN HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE BAND
OVER THE LAST HOUR ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.  HAVE
BOLSTERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IN
GENERAL...STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVERS WITH LIGHT FLOW IN
THE LOWEST 20K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A STEADY CLIMB IN PWAT VALUES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY APPROACHING THE TWO INCH THRESHOLD BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MODELS ARE
CONVECTIVELY POLLUTED BY TONIGHT...SO HARD TO PICK UP ON ANY
ELEVATED BOUNDARIES THAT MAY RESULT IN TRAINING OF ECHOS...BUT AM
MOST CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN SOUTHERN
TIER OF FORECAST AREA FROM DIXON TO IDA COUNTIES WHERE RAINFALL OVER
THE LAST WEEK HAS ACCUMULATED TO 2-4 INCHES AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR NOW.  NAM OFFERS THE FURTHEST NORTH AND MOST PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA.  SIDED CLOSER TO THESE SOLUTIONS...BUT HEDGED
TOWARDS THE SLOWER EVOLVING SOLUTIONS SINCE THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.

HAVE RAISED QPF VALUES FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH 1-2 INCHES
FORECASET ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT CERTAINLY POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
HIGHER AMOUNTS.  IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...HAVE SHRUNK THE DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION BY RAISING LOWS TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION AROUND.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE VERY SLOWLY EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF AS
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE MAINLY IMPACTING THE AREA IN
THE MORNING. THE NAM AND NMM PLACE THIS WAVE MUCH FURTHER NORTH NEAR
THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR...WHICH IS A STRONG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER
MODELS WHICH ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS BY
BRINGING THE WAVE THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA. HAVE THROWN OUT THIS
SOLUTION...SO EXPECT THE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME PRETTY HEFTY RAINFALL RATES TO MAINLY IMPACT OUR FAR EASTERN
CWA. AS THIS WAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

CONTINUED MOISTURE PRESENCE AND INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH THE
GRADUAL ARRIVE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
HALF...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SLOWLY DRYING FROM THE WEST EACH
PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED...SO HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES
DWINDLE SOMEWHAT...BUT THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE SOME RESIDUAL
CONCERN OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND SOME
ADDITIONAL RIVER AND STREAM RISES.

A BRIEF RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND TEMPERATURES FINALLY
RETURNING TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMALS ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY. MODELS POTENTIALLY BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORTWAVE BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL WET WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT. BUT WITH QUICKLY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. DID NOT ALTER ALLBLEND SOLUTION
MUCH GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
RAPIDLY FORM AFTER 09Z SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HOWEVER LATEST
MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY VERY WELL STAY SOUTH OF KSUX
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THEN WEAKEN BEFORE ANYTHING REAL HEAVY GETS
TOO FAR NORTH. AGAIN THIS SOLUTION IS NOT A SURE BET...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON LOWER VIS AND CIGS IN TSRA HAS DECREASED AT KSUX. THUS
FOR NOW WILL REMOVE MENTION IN THE TAFS...AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT
MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MAY THUS END UP
DRY...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER AND
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...AND MAYBE SOME SCATTERED MVFR STRATOCU.
CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH EXACT
LOCATION AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. WOULD LIKELY HAVE MVFR OR IFR
REDUCTIONS IN ANY STORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY. ADDED IN TEMPO
GROUPS AFTER 03Z AT KFSD AND KSUX...AS AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS LIKE
THE MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THAT TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD







000
FXUS63 KFSD 270943
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
443 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ACTIVE FORECAST WITH A COUPLE DIFFERENT ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 08Z RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICT SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS WANDERED SOUTH TOWARDS THE I-70
CORRIDOR.  SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY HAS LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TRAILING STRATIFORM MCS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.  FURTHER TO THE NORTH...LEADING EDGE OF THE ELEVATED
MOISTURE RETURN HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE BAND
OVER THE LAST HOUR ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.  HAVE
BOLSTERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IN
GENERAL...STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVERS WITH LIGHT FLOW IN
THE LOWEST 20K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A STEADY CLIMB IN PWAT VALUES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY APPROACHING THE TWO INCH THRESHOLD BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MODELS ARE
CONVECTIVELY POLLUTED BY TONIGHT...SO HARD TO PICK UP ON ANY
ELEVATED BOUNDARIES THAT MAY RESULT IN TRAINING OF ECHOS...BUT AM
MOST CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN SOUTHERN
TIER OF FORECAST AREA FROM DIXON TO IDA COUNTIES WHERE RAINFALL OVER
THE LAST WEEK HAS ACCUMULATED TO 2-4 INCHES AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR NOW.  NAM OFFERS THE FURTHEST NORTH AND MOST PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA.  SIDED CLOSER TO THESE SOLUTIONS...BUT HEDGED
TOWARDS THE SLOWER EVOLVING SOLUTIONS SINCE THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.

HAVE RAISED QPF VALUES FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH 1-2 INCHES
FORECASET ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT CERTAINLY POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
HIGHER AMOUNTS.  IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...HAVE SHRUNK THE DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION BY RAISING LOWS TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION AROUND.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE VERY SLOWLY EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF AS
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE MAINLY IMPACTING THE AREA IN
THE MORNING. THE NAM AND NMM PLACE THIS WAVE MUCH FURTHER NORTH NEAR
THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR...WHICH IS A STRONG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER
MODELS WHICH ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS BY
BRINGING THE WAVE THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA. HAVE THROWN OUT THIS
SOLUTION...SO EXPECT THE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME PRETTY HEFTY RAINFALL RATES TO MAINLY IMPACT OUR FAR EASTERN
CWA. AS THIS WAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

CONTINUED MOISTURE PRESENCE AND INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH THE
GRADUAL ARRIVE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
HALF...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SLOWLY DRYING FROM THE WEST EACH
PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED...SO HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES
DWINDLE SOMEWHAT...BUT THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE SOME RESIDUAL
CONCERN OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND SOME
ADDITIONAL RIVER AND STREAM RISES.

A BRIEF RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND TEMPERATURES FINALLY
RETURNING TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMALS ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY. MODELS POTENTIALLY BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORTWAVE BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL WET WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT. BUT WITH QUICKLY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. DID NOT ALTER ALLBLEND SOLUTION
MUCH GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
RAPIDLY FORM AFTER 09Z SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HOWEVER LATEST
MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY VERY WELL STAY SOUTH OF KSUX
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THEN WEAKEN BEFORE ANYTHING REAL HEAVY GETS
TOO FAR NORTH. AGAIN THIS SOLUTION IS NOT A SURE BET...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON LOWER VIS AND CIGS IN TSRA HAS DECREASED AT KSUX. THUS
FOR NOW WILL REMOVE MENTION IN THE TAFS...AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT
MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MAY THUS END UP
DRY...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER AND
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...AND MAYBE SOME SCATTERED MVFR STRATOCU.
CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH EXACT
LOCATION AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. WOULD LIKELY HAVE MVFR OR IFR
REDUCTIONS IN ANY STORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY. ADDED IN TEMPO
GROUPS AFTER 03Z AT KFSD AND KSUX...AS AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS LIKE
THE MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THAT TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD







000
FXUS63 KFSD 270943
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
443 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ACTIVE FORECAST WITH A COUPLE DIFFERENT ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 08Z RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICT SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS WANDERED SOUTH TOWARDS THE I-70
CORRIDOR.  SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY HAS LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TRAILING STRATIFORM MCS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.  FURTHER TO THE NORTH...LEADING EDGE OF THE ELEVATED
MOISTURE RETURN HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE BAND
OVER THE LAST HOUR ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.  HAVE
BOLSTERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IN
GENERAL...STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVERS WITH LIGHT FLOW IN
THE LOWEST 20K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A STEADY CLIMB IN PWAT VALUES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY APPROACHING THE TWO INCH THRESHOLD BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MODELS ARE
CONVECTIVELY POLLUTED BY TONIGHT...SO HARD TO PICK UP ON ANY
ELEVATED BOUNDARIES THAT MAY RESULT IN TRAINING OF ECHOS...BUT AM
MOST CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN SOUTHERN
TIER OF FORECAST AREA FROM DIXON TO IDA COUNTIES WHERE RAINFALL OVER
THE LAST WEEK HAS ACCUMULATED TO 2-4 INCHES AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR NOW.  NAM OFFERS THE FURTHEST NORTH AND MOST PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA.  SIDED CLOSER TO THESE SOLUTIONS...BUT HEDGED
TOWARDS THE SLOWER EVOLVING SOLUTIONS SINCE THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.

HAVE RAISED QPF VALUES FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH 1-2 INCHES
FORECASET ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT CERTAINLY POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
HIGHER AMOUNTS.  IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...HAVE SHRUNK THE DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION BY RAISING LOWS TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION AROUND.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE VERY SLOWLY EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF AS
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE MAINLY IMPACTING THE AREA IN
THE MORNING. THE NAM AND NMM PLACE THIS WAVE MUCH FURTHER NORTH NEAR
THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR...WHICH IS A STRONG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER
MODELS WHICH ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS BY
BRINGING THE WAVE THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA. HAVE THROWN OUT THIS
SOLUTION...SO EXPECT THE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME PRETTY HEFTY RAINFALL RATES TO MAINLY IMPACT OUR FAR EASTERN
CWA. AS THIS WAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

CONTINUED MOISTURE PRESENCE AND INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH THE
GRADUAL ARRIVE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
HALF...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SLOWLY DRYING FROM THE WEST EACH
PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED...SO HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES
DWINDLE SOMEWHAT...BUT THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE SOME RESIDUAL
CONCERN OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND SOME
ADDITIONAL RIVER AND STREAM RISES.

A BRIEF RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND TEMPERATURES FINALLY
RETURNING TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMALS ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY. MODELS POTENTIALLY BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORTWAVE BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL WET WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT. BUT WITH QUICKLY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. DID NOT ALTER ALLBLEND SOLUTION
MUCH GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
RAPIDLY FORM AFTER 09Z SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HOWEVER LATEST
MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY VERY WELL STAY SOUTH OF KSUX
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THEN WEAKEN BEFORE ANYTHING REAL HEAVY GETS
TOO FAR NORTH. AGAIN THIS SOLUTION IS NOT A SURE BET...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON LOWER VIS AND CIGS IN TSRA HAS DECREASED AT KSUX. THUS
FOR NOW WILL REMOVE MENTION IN THE TAFS...AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT
MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MAY THUS END UP
DRY...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER AND
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...AND MAYBE SOME SCATTERED MVFR STRATOCU.
CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH EXACT
LOCATION AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. WOULD LIKELY HAVE MVFR OR IFR
REDUCTIONS IN ANY STORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY. ADDED IN TEMPO
GROUPS AFTER 03Z AT KFSD AND KSUX...AS AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS LIKE
THE MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THAT TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD







000
FXUS63 KFSD 270943
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
443 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ACTIVE FORECAST WITH A COUPLE DIFFERENT ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 08Z RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICT SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS WANDERED SOUTH TOWARDS THE I-70
CORRIDOR.  SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY HAS LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TRAILING STRATIFORM MCS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.  FURTHER TO THE NORTH...LEADING EDGE OF THE ELEVATED
MOISTURE RETURN HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE BAND
OVER THE LAST HOUR ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.  HAVE
BOLSTERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IN
GENERAL...STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVERS WITH LIGHT FLOW IN
THE LOWEST 20K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A STEADY CLIMB IN PWAT VALUES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY APPROACHING THE TWO INCH THRESHOLD BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MODELS ARE
CONVECTIVELY POLLUTED BY TONIGHT...SO HARD TO PICK UP ON ANY
ELEVATED BOUNDARIES THAT MAY RESULT IN TRAINING OF ECHOS...BUT AM
MOST CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN SOUTHERN
TIER OF FORECAST AREA FROM DIXON TO IDA COUNTIES WHERE RAINFALL OVER
THE LAST WEEK HAS ACCUMULATED TO 2-4 INCHES AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR NOW.  NAM OFFERS THE FURTHEST NORTH AND MOST PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA.  SIDED CLOSER TO THESE SOLUTIONS...BUT HEDGED
TOWARDS THE SLOWER EVOLVING SOLUTIONS SINCE THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.

HAVE RAISED QPF VALUES FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH 1-2 INCHES
FORECASET ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT CERTAINLY POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
HIGHER AMOUNTS.  IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...HAVE SHRUNK THE DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION BY RAISING LOWS TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION AROUND.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE VERY SLOWLY EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF AS
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE MAINLY IMPACTING THE AREA IN
THE MORNING. THE NAM AND NMM PLACE THIS WAVE MUCH FURTHER NORTH NEAR
THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR...WHICH IS A STRONG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER
MODELS WHICH ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS BY
BRINGING THE WAVE THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA. HAVE THROWN OUT THIS
SOLUTION...SO EXPECT THE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME PRETTY HEFTY RAINFALL RATES TO MAINLY IMPACT OUR FAR EASTERN
CWA. AS THIS WAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

CONTINUED MOISTURE PRESENCE AND INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH THE
GRADUAL ARRIVE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
HALF...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SLOWLY DRYING FROM THE WEST EACH
PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED...SO HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES
DWINDLE SOMEWHAT...BUT THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE SOME RESIDUAL
CONCERN OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND SOME
ADDITIONAL RIVER AND STREAM RISES.

A BRIEF RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND TEMPERATURES FINALLY
RETURNING TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMALS ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY. MODELS POTENTIALLY BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORTWAVE BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL WET WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT. BUT WITH QUICKLY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. DID NOT ALTER ALLBLEND SOLUTION
MUCH GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
RAPIDLY FORM AFTER 09Z SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HOWEVER LATEST
MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY VERY WELL STAY SOUTH OF KSUX
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THEN WEAKEN BEFORE ANYTHING REAL HEAVY GETS
TOO FAR NORTH. AGAIN THIS SOLUTION IS NOT A SURE BET...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON LOWER VIS AND CIGS IN TSRA HAS DECREASED AT KSUX. THUS
FOR NOW WILL REMOVE MENTION IN THE TAFS...AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT
MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MAY THUS END UP
DRY...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER AND
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...AND MAYBE SOME SCATTERED MVFR STRATOCU.
CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH EXACT
LOCATION AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. WOULD LIKELY HAVE MVFR OR IFR
REDUCTIONS IN ANY STORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY. ADDED IN TEMPO
GROUPS AFTER 03Z AT KFSD AND KSUX...AS AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS LIKE
THE MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THAT TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD







000
FXUS63 KFSD 270943
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
443 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ACTIVE FORECAST WITH A COUPLE DIFFERENT ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 08Z RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICT SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS WANDERED SOUTH TOWARDS THE I-70
CORRIDOR.  SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY HAS LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TRAILING STRATIFORM MCS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.  FURTHER TO THE NORTH...LEADING EDGE OF THE ELEVATED
MOISTURE RETURN HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE BAND
OVER THE LAST HOUR ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.  HAVE
BOLSTERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IN
GENERAL...STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVERS WITH LIGHT FLOW IN
THE LOWEST 20K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A STEADY CLIMB IN PWAT VALUES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY APPROACHING THE TWO INCH THRESHOLD BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MODELS ARE
CONVECTIVELY POLLUTED BY TONIGHT...SO HARD TO PICK UP ON ANY
ELEVATED BOUNDARIES THAT MAY RESULT IN TRAINING OF ECHOS...BUT AM
MOST CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN SOUTHERN
TIER OF FORECAST AREA FROM DIXON TO IDA COUNTIES WHERE RAINFALL OVER
THE LAST WEEK HAS ACCUMULATED TO 2-4 INCHES AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR NOW.  NAM OFFERS THE FURTHEST NORTH AND MOST PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA.  SIDED CLOSER TO THESE SOLUTIONS...BUT HEDGED
TOWARDS THE SLOWER EVOLVING SOLUTIONS SINCE THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.

HAVE RAISED QPF VALUES FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH 1-2 INCHES
FORECASET ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT CERTAINLY POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
HIGHER AMOUNTS.  IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...HAVE SHRUNK THE DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION BY RAISING LOWS TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION AROUND.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE VERY SLOWLY EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF AS
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE MAINLY IMPACTING THE AREA IN
THE MORNING. THE NAM AND NMM PLACE THIS WAVE MUCH FURTHER NORTH NEAR
THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR...WHICH IS A STRONG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER
MODELS WHICH ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS BY
BRINGING THE WAVE THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA. HAVE THROWN OUT THIS
SOLUTION...SO EXPECT THE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME PRETTY HEFTY RAINFALL RATES TO MAINLY IMPACT OUR FAR EASTERN
CWA. AS THIS WAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

CONTINUED MOISTURE PRESENCE AND INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH THE
GRADUAL ARRIVE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
HALF...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SLOWLY DRYING FROM THE WEST EACH
PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED...SO HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES
DWINDLE SOMEWHAT...BUT THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE SOME RESIDUAL
CONCERN OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND SOME
ADDITIONAL RIVER AND STREAM RISES.

A BRIEF RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND TEMPERATURES FINALLY
RETURNING TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMALS ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY. MODELS POTENTIALLY BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORTWAVE BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL WET WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT. BUT WITH QUICKLY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. DID NOT ALTER ALLBLEND SOLUTION
MUCH GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
RAPIDLY FORM AFTER 09Z SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HOWEVER LATEST
MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY VERY WELL STAY SOUTH OF KSUX
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THEN WEAKEN BEFORE ANYTHING REAL HEAVY GETS
TOO FAR NORTH. AGAIN THIS SOLUTION IS NOT A SURE BET...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON LOWER VIS AND CIGS IN TSRA HAS DECREASED AT KSUX. THUS
FOR NOW WILL REMOVE MENTION IN THE TAFS...AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT
MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MAY THUS END UP
DRY...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER AND
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...AND MAYBE SOME SCATTERED MVFR STRATOCU.
CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH EXACT
LOCATION AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. WOULD LIKELY HAVE MVFR OR IFR
REDUCTIONS IN ANY STORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY. ADDED IN TEMPO
GROUPS AFTER 03Z AT KFSD AND KSUX...AS AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS LIKE
THE MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THAT TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD








000
FXUS63 KABR 270911
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
411 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BACK OUT OF THE CWA...AND A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AM.

MAIN THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT/THURSDAY...UNFORTUNATELY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THANKS
TO RATHER STRIKING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS.

NAM PROVIDES A MUCH BETTER JET SIGNATURE AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENISIS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER LOW...AND A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK. THIS PUSHES THE QPF BULLSEYE WELL INTO THE CWA. THE NAM
TREND HAS EXISTED SINCE 18Z AND IS CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSED WITHIN THE
06Z RUN. SREF AND GEM/ECMWF HAVE A SOMEWHAT LESS NORTHERLY EXTREME
BUT THE SREF HAS PROBABILITIES GREATER THEN 2 INCHES FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND BOTH THE GEM/ECMWF BRING THE
PRECIPITATION BULLSEYE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO BE CONCERNED.
THE GFS IS THE SOUTHERLY OUTLIER.

NAM SUGGEST GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION WITH MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES...AND LESS THEN 500 J/KG CAPE. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 20 TO
30 MICROBARS OF LIFT ALONG AN NARROW EAST WEST AXIS WITH A LOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. SINCE STORMS ARE LIKELY DOMINATED BY WARM
CLOUD PROCESSES WITH SLOW EXPECTED MOTION...ADDED THE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS FOR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS THIS AREA OF THE CWA
HAS ESCAPED HEAVY RAIN IN THE PAST COUPLED OF DAYS...AND THE
UNCERTAINTY OVER EXACT LOCATIONS FOR STORMS...WILL OPT OUT OF
ANY FLOOD HEADLINES.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MODELS REMAIN RELATIVELY SIMILAR AND MAINTAIN DECENT 24 HOUR
CONTINUITY. POPS CONTINUE TO BE SPRINKLED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
WHILE FLATTER...MORE ZONAL-TYPE...UPPER FLOW PERSISTS. STILL
WATCHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A POSSIBLE ROUND OF STRONG
CONVECTION WITH A COLD FROPA AND MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PROGGED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RUNNING GENERALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH. TSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MAY CREEP UP INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KPIR. BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING TSTORMS NEAR KPIR AND KATY WILL BE AFTER 18Z FOR
KPIR AND AFTER 0Z THURSDAY FOR KATY. HOWEVER TIMING AND NORTHERN
EXTENT OF ANY STORMS IS UNCERTAIN ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE A
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS.








&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 270911
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
411 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BACK OUT OF THE CWA...AND A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AM.

MAIN THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT/THURSDAY...UNFORTUNATELY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THANKS
TO RATHER STRIKING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS.

NAM PROVIDES A MUCH BETTER JET SIGNATURE AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENISIS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER LOW...AND A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK. THIS PUSHES THE QPF BULLSEYE WELL INTO THE CWA. THE NAM
TREND HAS EXISTED SINCE 18Z AND IS CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSED WITHIN THE
06Z RUN. SREF AND GEM/ECMWF HAVE A SOMEWHAT LESS NORTHERLY EXTREME
BUT THE SREF HAS PROBABILITIES GREATER THEN 2 INCHES FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND BOTH THE GEM/ECMWF BRING THE
PRECIPITATION BULLSEYE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO BE CONCERNED.
THE GFS IS THE SOUTHERLY OUTLIER.

NAM SUGGEST GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION WITH MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES...AND LESS THEN 500 J/KG CAPE. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 20 TO
30 MICROBARS OF LIFT ALONG AN NARROW EAST WEST AXIS WITH A LOW
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. SINCE STORMS ARE LIKELY DOMINATED BY WARM
CLOUD PROCESSES WITH SLOW EXPECTED MOTION...ADDED THE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS FOR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS THIS AREA OF THE CWA
HAS ESCAPED HEAVY RAIN IN THE PAST COUPLED OF DAYS...AND THE
UNCERTAINTY OVER EXACT LOCATIONS FOR STORMS...WILL OPT OUT OF
ANY FLOOD HEADLINES.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MODELS REMAIN RELATIVELY SIMILAR AND MAINTAIN DECENT 24 HOUR
CONTINUITY. POPS CONTINUE TO BE SPRINKLED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
WHILE FLATTER...MORE ZONAL-TYPE...UPPER FLOW PERSISTS. STILL
WATCHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A POSSIBLE ROUND OF STRONG
CONVECTION WITH A COLD FROPA AND MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PROGGED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RUNNING GENERALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH. TSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MAY CREEP UP INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KPIR. BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING TSTORMS NEAR KPIR AND KATY WILL BE AFTER 18Z FOR
KPIR AND AFTER 0Z THURSDAY FOR KATY. HOWEVER TIMING AND NORTHERN
EXTENT OF ANY STORMS IS UNCERTAIN ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE A
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS.








&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 270854
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
254 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NEVADA/UTAH WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AS THE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY PROPAGATES INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY THE BEST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES
OF PRECIP THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE COLORADO/NEBRASKA
AREA. MODELS ARE VARYING WITH TIMING OF WAVES AND HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND WITHIN THE CWA. EITHER WAY QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIMITED...EXCEPT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS
CROSSING AREAS NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO CLOUD COVER. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES THROUGH NEBRASKA/KANSAS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TWO MAIN SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE
PERIOD...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FRIDAY...AND A MORE ROBUST
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT PER WAVE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK. HOWEVER...SOME
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY PERIOD BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...MAINLY THE HANDLING OF
THE NW CONUS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY EJECTING IMPULSE. THE ECMWF HAS A
SOUTHERN BIAS TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF LSA PASSING THROUGH
THE FA AS OPPOSED TO A MORE NORTHERN TRACK IN THE GFS...WHICH IS
ALSO FASTER. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN THE FA HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITATIONS MAY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIP TOTALS THEN.

RETAINED PREV POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK AND
EXPANSION OF SLIGHT MENTION. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SFC TROUGH STALLING ACROSS THE SW HALF FRIDAY...WITH A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE. SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE ND RESULTING CAPE WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ESP OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. OTHERWISE...A MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SUPPORTING
INCREASING LSA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER SFC CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE REGION...SUPPORTING
MORE ELEVATED/CONVECTIVE CHANCES BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD DEFORMATION RAINS. HENCE...KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE CAT FOR NOW...ESP AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
EAST OUT OF THE REGION. KEPT MOST OF THE REGION DRY MONDAY THROUGH
TUES...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COMMENCING AND DRY PROFILES.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED MONDAY AND PERHAPS TUES BEHIND
SUNDAY/S COLD FRONT...ESP NW AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

SCT-ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES CROSS THE
REGION. LCL MVFR/IFR CONDS EXP WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
ADDITIONALLY...IFR CIGS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS SW AND SCENTRAL
SD THIS MORNING...WITH CIGS TRENDING TO MVFR LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD THERE. WINDS WILL
VEER SE AROUND KRAP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS TO SPREAD INTO THE RAP TERMINAL THEN. HAVE HINTED AT THIS IN
THE TAF.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC






000
FXUS63 KUNR 270854
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
254 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NEVADA/UTAH WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AS THE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY PROPAGATES INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY THE BEST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES
OF PRECIP THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE COLORADO/NEBRASKA
AREA. MODELS ARE VARYING WITH TIMING OF WAVES AND HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND WITHIN THE CWA. EITHER WAY QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIMITED...EXCEPT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS
CROSSING AREAS NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO CLOUD COVER. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES THROUGH NEBRASKA/KANSAS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TWO MAIN SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE
PERIOD...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FRIDAY...AND A MORE ROBUST
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT PER WAVE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK. HOWEVER...SOME
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY PERIOD BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...MAINLY THE HANDLING OF
THE NW CONUS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY EJECTING IMPULSE. THE ECMWF HAS A
SOUTHERN BIAS TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF LSA PASSING THROUGH
THE FA AS OPPOSED TO A MORE NORTHERN TRACK IN THE GFS...WHICH IS
ALSO FASTER. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN THE FA HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITATIONS MAY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIP TOTALS THEN.

RETAINED PREV POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK AND
EXPANSION OF SLIGHT MENTION. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SFC TROUGH STALLING ACROSS THE SW HALF FRIDAY...WITH A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE. SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE ND RESULTING CAPE WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ESP OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. OTHERWISE...A MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SUPPORTING
INCREASING LSA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER SFC CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE REGION...SUPPORTING
MORE ELEVATED/CONVECTIVE CHANCES BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD DEFORMATION RAINS. HENCE...KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE CAT FOR NOW...ESP AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
EAST OUT OF THE REGION. KEPT MOST OF THE REGION DRY MONDAY THROUGH
TUES...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COMMENCING AND DRY PROFILES.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED MONDAY AND PERHAPS TUES BEHIND
SUNDAY/S COLD FRONT...ESP NW AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

SCT-ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES CROSS THE
REGION. LCL MVFR/IFR CONDS EXP WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
ADDITIONALLY...IFR CIGS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS SW AND SCENTRAL
SD THIS MORNING...WITH CIGS TRENDING TO MVFR LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD THERE. WINDS WILL
VEER SE AROUND KRAP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS TO SPREAD INTO THE RAP TERMINAL THEN. HAVE HINTED AT THIS IN
THE TAF.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 270541
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1027 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CNTRL
CANADA THE GREAT BASIN NOW IN THE PROCESS OF FRACTURING AS THE NRN
STREAM CONTINUES EWD AND THE SRN BASE BECOMING THE NEXT WRN CONUS
CUT OFF LOW. SWRLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE BEST FORCING
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH THE NEXT
THREE PERIODS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE CO/NEB AREA. MODELS ARE VARYING WITH
TIMING OF WAVES AND HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND WITHIN THE
CWA. EITHER WAY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED EXCEPT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS CROSSING AREAS NEAR THE NEB
BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW AVERAGE WEDNESDAY MAINLY
DUE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN DECREASING
WED NIGHT INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY MAY BRING A
FEW SHRA/TSRA TO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
WARMER FOR THE FORECAST AREA. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN JET
STREAM TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT 250-500J/KG MLCAPE WITH ERODING CAP. A FEW SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF BLACK HILLS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LONG WAVE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO WESTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SMALL THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LINGERING
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG SOUTH OF I-90. LCL MVFR VSBY WITH HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD...AND MAY PERSIST INTO WED AFTN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON









000
FXUS63 KUNR 270541
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1027 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CNTRL
CANADA THE GREAT BASIN NOW IN THE PROCESS OF FRACTURING AS THE NRN
STREAM CONTINUES EWD AND THE SRN BASE BECOMING THE NEXT WRN CONUS
CUT OFF LOW. SWRLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE BEST FORCING
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH THE NEXT
THREE PERIODS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE CO/NEB AREA. MODELS ARE VARYING WITH
TIMING OF WAVES AND HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND WITHIN THE
CWA. EITHER WAY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED EXCEPT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS CROSSING AREAS NEAR THE NEB
BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW AVERAGE WEDNESDAY MAINLY
DUE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN DECREASING
WED NIGHT INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY MAY BRING A
FEW SHRA/TSRA TO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
WARMER FOR THE FORECAST AREA. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN JET
STREAM TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT 250-500J/KG MLCAPE WITH ERODING CAP. A FEW SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF BLACK HILLS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LONG WAVE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO WESTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SMALL THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LINGERING
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG SOUTH OF I-90. LCL MVFR VSBY WITH HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD...AND MAY PERSIST INTO WED AFTN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON









000
FXUS63 KUNR 270541
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1027 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CNTRL
CANADA THE GREAT BASIN NOW IN THE PROCESS OF FRACTURING AS THE NRN
STREAM CONTINUES EWD AND THE SRN BASE BECOMING THE NEXT WRN CONUS
CUT OFF LOW. SWRLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE BEST FORCING
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH THE NEXT
THREE PERIODS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE CO/NEB AREA. MODELS ARE VARYING WITH
TIMING OF WAVES AND HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND WITHIN THE
CWA. EITHER WAY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED EXCEPT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS CROSSING AREAS NEAR THE NEB
BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW AVERAGE WEDNESDAY MAINLY
DUE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN DECREASING
WED NIGHT INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY MAY BRING A
FEW SHRA/TSRA TO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
WARMER FOR THE FORECAST AREA. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN JET
STREAM TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT 250-500J/KG MLCAPE WITH ERODING CAP. A FEW SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF BLACK HILLS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LONG WAVE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO WESTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SMALL THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LINGERING
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG SOUTH OF I-90. LCL MVFR VSBY WITH HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD...AND MAY PERSIST INTO WED AFTN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON









000
FXUS63 KUNR 270541
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1027 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CNTRL
CANADA THE GREAT BASIN NOW IN THE PROCESS OF FRACTURING AS THE NRN
STREAM CONTINUES EWD AND THE SRN BASE BECOMING THE NEXT WRN CONUS
CUT OFF LOW. SWRLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE BEST FORCING
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH THE NEXT
THREE PERIODS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE CO/NEB AREA. MODELS ARE VARYING WITH
TIMING OF WAVES AND HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND WITHIN THE
CWA. EITHER WAY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED EXCEPT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS CROSSING AREAS NEAR THE NEB
BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW AVERAGE WEDNESDAY MAINLY
DUE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN DECREASING
WED NIGHT INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY MAY BRING A
FEW SHRA/TSRA TO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
WARMER FOR THE FORECAST AREA. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN JET
STREAM TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT 250-500J/KG MLCAPE WITH ERODING CAP. A FEW SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF BLACK HILLS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LONG WAVE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO WESTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SMALL THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LINGERING
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG SOUTH OF I-90. LCL MVFR VSBY WITH HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD...AND MAY PERSIST INTO WED AFTN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON









000
FXUS63 KABR 270523 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1223 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR AN
ENHANCED AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS GRANT/BIG STONE COUNTIES.
ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER CHANGES
WERE NEEDED.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS
WELL...SWITCHING  WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGAIN EXPECTING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EASTWARD...KICKING ENERGY OUT HEAD OF IT...WHICH WILL BE NEARING
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR CWA...SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AS WELL.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW ACROSS THE US FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PERIOD BEGINS
WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER OUR REGION WITH MODEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO
FOLLOW IN BEHIND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE QUICK FLOW MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO EASTERN
PART OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE REGION. THE
MODELS THEN ALL SHOW A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FORMING OVER THE
WESTERN US INTO SATURDAY. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL KICK
OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE CWA. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPPER 70S
TO THE MID 80S. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH MOSTLY 70S
ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH. TSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MAY CREEP UP INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KPIR. BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING TSTORMS NEAR KPIR AND KATY WILL BE AFTER 18Z FOR
KPIR AND AFTER 0Z THURSDAY FOR KATY. HOWEVER TIMING AND NORTHERN
EXTENT OF ANY STORMS IS UNCERTAIN ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE A
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE/DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...WISE/DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 270427
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1027 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CNTRL
CANADA THE GREAT BASIN NOW IN THE PROCESS OF FRACTURING AS THE NRN
STREAM CONTINUES EWD AND THE SRN BASE BECOMING THE NEXT WRN CONUS
CUT OFF LOW. SWRLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE BEST FORCING
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH THE NEXT
THREE PERIODS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE CO/NEB AREA. MODELS ARE VARYING WITH
TIMING OF WAVES AND HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND WITHIN THE
CWA. EITHER WAY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED EXCEPT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS CROSSING AREAS NEAR THE NEB
BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW AVERAGE WEDNESDAY MAINLY
DUE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN DECREASING
WED NIGHT INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY MAY BRING A
FEW SHRA/TSRA TO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
WARMER FOR THE FORECAST AREA. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN JET
STREAM TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT 250-500J/KG MLCAPE WITH ERODING CAP. A FEW SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF BLACK HILLS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LONG WAVE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO WESTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SMALL THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LINGERING
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG SOUTH OF I-90. LCL MVFR VSBY WITH HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD...AND MAY PERSIST INTO WED AFTN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 270427
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1027 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CNTRL
CANADA THE GREAT BASIN NOW IN THE PROCESS OF FRACTURING AS THE NRN
STREAM CONTINUES EWD AND THE SRN BASE BECOMING THE NEXT WRN CONUS
CUT OFF LOW. SWRLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE BEST FORCING
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH THE NEXT
THREE PERIODS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE CO/NEB AREA. MODELS ARE VARYING WITH
TIMING OF WAVES AND HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND WITHIN THE
CWA. EITHER WAY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED EXCEPT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS CROSSING AREAS NEAR THE NEB
BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW AVERAGE WEDNESDAY MAINLY
DUE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN DECREASING
WED NIGHT INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY MAY BRING A
FEW SHRA/TSRA TO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
WARMER FOR THE FORECAST AREA. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN JET
STREAM TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT 250-500J/KG MLCAPE WITH ERODING CAP. A FEW SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF BLACK HILLS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LONG WAVE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO WESTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SMALL THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LINGERING
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG SOUTH OF I-90. LCL MVFR VSBY WITH HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD...AND MAY PERSIST INTO WED AFTN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 270427
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1027 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CNTRL
CANADA THE GREAT BASIN NOW IN THE PROCESS OF FRACTURING AS THE NRN
STREAM CONTINUES EWD AND THE SRN BASE BECOMING THE NEXT WRN CONUS
CUT OFF LOW. SWRLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE BEST FORCING
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH THE NEXT
THREE PERIODS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE CO/NEB AREA. MODELS ARE VARYING WITH
TIMING OF WAVES AND HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND WITHIN THE
CWA. EITHER WAY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED EXCEPT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS CROSSING AREAS NEAR THE NEB
BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW AVERAGE WEDNESDAY MAINLY
DUE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN DECREASING
WED NIGHT INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY MAY BRING A
FEW SHRA/TSRA TO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
WARMER FOR THE FORECAST AREA. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN JET
STREAM TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT 250-500J/KG MLCAPE WITH ERODING CAP. A FEW SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF BLACK HILLS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LONG WAVE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO WESTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SMALL THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LINGERING
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG SOUTH OF I-90. LCL MVFR VSBY WITH HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD...AND MAY PERSIST INTO WED AFTN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 270427
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1027 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CNTRL
CANADA THE GREAT BASIN NOW IN THE PROCESS OF FRACTURING AS THE NRN
STREAM CONTINUES EWD AND THE SRN BASE BECOMING THE NEXT WRN CONUS
CUT OFF LOW. SWRLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE BEST FORCING
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH THE NEXT
THREE PERIODS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE CO/NEB AREA. MODELS ARE VARYING WITH
TIMING OF WAVES AND HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND WITHIN THE
CWA. EITHER WAY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED EXCEPT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS CROSSING AREAS NEAR THE NEB
BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW AVERAGE WEDNESDAY MAINLY
DUE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN DECREASING
WED NIGHT INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY MAY BRING A
FEW SHRA/TSRA TO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
WARMER FOR THE FORECAST AREA. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN JET
STREAM TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT 250-500J/KG MLCAPE WITH ERODING CAP. A FEW SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF BLACK HILLS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LONG WAVE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO WESTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SMALL THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LINGERING
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG SOUTH OF I-90. LCL MVFR VSBY WITH HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD...AND MAY PERSIST INTO WED AFTN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KFSD 270357
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1057 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MADE A FEW CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO POPS. FIRST...INCLUDED SOME
SMALL POPS FURTHER NORTH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY GOING ON IN NORTHWEST NEB AND FAR
SOUTHWEST SD. SO THEREFORE SMALL POPS ARE NOW IN THERE FOR
CHAMBERLAIN AND HURON. THE HIGH POPS FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES FOR
VERY LATE TONIGHT STILL LOOK ON TARGET AS MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD. BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED RIGHT ALONG OUR MO
RIVER VALLEY ZONES. LASTLY...TEMPERED THE POPS ON WEDNESDAY FOR
OUR EASTERN ZONES. LATEST INDICATIONS FROM SOME OF THE 18Z MODEL
RUNS SHOW THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO OUR EAST MIGHT BE TOO
STRONG TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO RUN INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ONCE AGAIN THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE CONVECTION
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.  LOOKS LIKE THE EVENING WILL BE FAIRLY
QUIET ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA....CLOSER TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR.  AND WITH THE
CONTINUATION OF THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FRONT...I WOULD NOT EXPECT
THE FRONT TO MOVE MUCH TO THE NORTH.  WITH THAT IN MIND...I HAVE
POPS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH 09Z.  AFTER
09Z...START TO INCREASE THE POPS AS ALL HIRES MODELS POINT TO THE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH.  WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 12Z BUT DIDNT
GET CARRIED AWAY WITH IT AS I THINK THE MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
FAR NORTH WITH FRONT AND THEREFORE WITH CONVECTION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA AND FAIRLY
WET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.  ALL MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER
WAVE TO BE EJECTED TOWARDS THE TRI STATE AREA DURING THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.  AREAS THAT DONT SEE THE PRECIP WONT
ESCAPE THE INFLUENCE OF THE WAVE AS THE CLOUDS WILL BE WIDESPREAD.
AND TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.  LOWERED
HIGHS A TAD FROM EARLIER FORECAST...BUT MAY NOT HAVE LOWERED THEM
ENOUGH.  THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE IF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL COLD POOL IN WHICH CASE WE COULD BE STUCK IN THE 60S IN SOME
OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

HEAVY RAIN SEEMS TO BE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS A MUCH MORE DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. RAINFALL COVERAGE AND RATES WILL GREATLY
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. AMPLIFYING
PRECIPITATION IS THE FACT THAT THE CWA WILL BE TEMPORARILY CAUGHT IN
THE FAVORABLE ZONES OF A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE. WITH PWAT VALUES SO
HIGH...OVER 2 INCHES...COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACH A FEW
INCHES. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER A HYDROLOGIC WATCH OF
SOME TYPE. FOR NOW...WILL INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN IN GRIDS AND BUMP UP
POPS FURTHER.

THURSDAY REMAINS A TRICKY FORECAST AS LARGER SYNOPTIC TROUGH REMAINS
SITUATED ACROSS COLORADO. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE ZONE REMAINS
SPRAWLED ACROSS THE REGION AND WOULD FAVOR REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW...PULLING THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH THROUGH
THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  THIS WOULD
KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OVER
NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND AS
TROUGHING DIGS BACK INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
RAPIDLY FORM AFTER 09Z SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HOWEVER LATEST
MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY VERY WELL STAY SOUTH OF KSUX
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THEN WEAKEN BEFORE ANYTHING REAL HEAVY GETS
TOO FAR NORTH. AGAIN THIS SOLUTION IS NOT A SURE BET...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON LOWER VIS AND CIGS IN TSRA HAS DECREASED AT KSUX. THUS
FOR NOW WILL REMOVE MENTION IN THE TAFS...AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT
MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MAY THUS END UP
DRY...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER AND
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...AND MAYBE SOME SCATTERED MVFR STRATOCU.
CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH EXACT
LOCATION AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. WOULD LIKELY HAVE MVFR OR IFR
REDUCTIONS IN ANY STORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY. ADDED IN TEMPO
GROUPS AFTER 03Z AT KFSD AND KSUX...AS AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS LIKE
THE MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THAT TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...CHENARD









000
FXUS63 KFSD 270357
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1057 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MADE A FEW CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO POPS. FIRST...INCLUDED SOME
SMALL POPS FURTHER NORTH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY GOING ON IN NORTHWEST NEB AND FAR
SOUTHWEST SD. SO THEREFORE SMALL POPS ARE NOW IN THERE FOR
CHAMBERLAIN AND HURON. THE HIGH POPS FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES FOR
VERY LATE TONIGHT STILL LOOK ON TARGET AS MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD. BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED RIGHT ALONG OUR MO
RIVER VALLEY ZONES. LASTLY...TEMPERED THE POPS ON WEDNESDAY FOR
OUR EASTERN ZONES. LATEST INDICATIONS FROM SOME OF THE 18Z MODEL
RUNS SHOW THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO OUR EAST MIGHT BE TOO
STRONG TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO RUN INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ONCE AGAIN THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE CONVECTION
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.  LOOKS LIKE THE EVENING WILL BE FAIRLY
QUIET ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA....CLOSER TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR.  AND WITH THE
CONTINUATION OF THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FRONT...I WOULD NOT EXPECT
THE FRONT TO MOVE MUCH TO THE NORTH.  WITH THAT IN MIND...I HAVE
POPS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH 09Z.  AFTER
09Z...START TO INCREASE THE POPS AS ALL HIRES MODELS POINT TO THE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH.  WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 12Z BUT DIDNT
GET CARRIED AWAY WITH IT AS I THINK THE MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
FAR NORTH WITH FRONT AND THEREFORE WITH CONVECTION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA AND FAIRLY
WET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.  ALL MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER
WAVE TO BE EJECTED TOWARDS THE TRI STATE AREA DURING THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.  AREAS THAT DONT SEE THE PRECIP WONT
ESCAPE THE INFLUENCE OF THE WAVE AS THE CLOUDS WILL BE WIDESPREAD.
AND TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.  LOWERED
HIGHS A TAD FROM EARLIER FORECAST...BUT MAY NOT HAVE LOWERED THEM
ENOUGH.  THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE IF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL COLD POOL IN WHICH CASE WE COULD BE STUCK IN THE 60S IN SOME
OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

HEAVY RAIN SEEMS TO BE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS A MUCH MORE DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. RAINFALL COVERAGE AND RATES WILL GREATLY
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. AMPLIFYING
PRECIPITATION IS THE FACT THAT THE CWA WILL BE TEMPORARILY CAUGHT IN
THE FAVORABLE ZONES OF A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE. WITH PWAT VALUES SO
HIGH...OVER 2 INCHES...COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACH A FEW
INCHES. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER A HYDROLOGIC WATCH OF
SOME TYPE. FOR NOW...WILL INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN IN GRIDS AND BUMP UP
POPS FURTHER.

THURSDAY REMAINS A TRICKY FORECAST AS LARGER SYNOPTIC TROUGH REMAINS
SITUATED ACROSS COLORADO. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE ZONE REMAINS
SPRAWLED ACROSS THE REGION AND WOULD FAVOR REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW...PULLING THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH THROUGH
THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  THIS WOULD
KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OVER
NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND AS
TROUGHING DIGS BACK INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
RAPIDLY FORM AFTER 09Z SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HOWEVER LATEST
MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY VERY WELL STAY SOUTH OF KSUX
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THEN WEAKEN BEFORE ANYTHING REAL HEAVY GETS
TOO FAR NORTH. AGAIN THIS SOLUTION IS NOT A SURE BET...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON LOWER VIS AND CIGS IN TSRA HAS DECREASED AT KSUX. THUS
FOR NOW WILL REMOVE MENTION IN THE TAFS...AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT
MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MAY THUS END UP
DRY...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER AND
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...AND MAYBE SOME SCATTERED MVFR STRATOCU.
CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH EXACT
LOCATION AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. WOULD LIKELY HAVE MVFR OR IFR
REDUCTIONS IN ANY STORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY. ADDED IN TEMPO
GROUPS AFTER 03Z AT KFSD AND KSUX...AS AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS LIKE
THE MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THAT TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...CHENARD










000
FXUS63 KFSD 270158
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
858 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MADE A FEW CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO POPS. FIRST...INCLUDED SOME
SMALL POPS FURTHER NORTH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY GOING ON IN NORTHWEST NEB AND FAR
SOUTHWEST SD. SO THEREFORE SMALL POPS ARE NOW IN THERE FOR
CHAMBERLAIN AND HURON. THE HIGH POPS FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES FOR
VERY LATE TONIGHT STILL LOOK ON TARGET AS MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD. BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED RIGHT ALONG OUR MO
RIVER VALLEY ZONES. LASTLY...TEMPERED THE POPS ON WEDNESDAY FOR
OUR EASTERN ZONES. LATEST INDICATIONS FROM SOME OF THE 18Z MODEL
RUNS SHOW THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO OUR EAST MIGHT BE TOO
STRONG TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO RUN INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ONCE AGAIN THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE CONVECTION CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA.  LOOKS LIKE THE EVENING WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA....CLOSER TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR.  AND WITH THE CONTINUATION OF
THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FRONT...I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO
MOVE MUCH TO THE NORTH.  WITH THAT IN MIND...I HAVE POPS FAIRLY LOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH 09Z.  AFTER 09Z...START TO INCREASE
THE POPS AS ALL HIRES MODELS POINT TO THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH.  WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 12Z BUT DIDNT GET CARRIED AWAY WITH IT
AS I THINK THE MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH WITH FRONT AND
THEREFORE WITH CONVECTION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA AND FAIRLY
WET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.  ALL MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER
WAVE TO BE EJECTED TOWARDS THE TRI STATE AREA DURING THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.  AREAS THAT DONT SEE THE PRECIP WONT
ESCAPE THE INFLUENCE OF THE WAVE AS THE CLOUDS WILL BE WIDESPREAD.
AND TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.  LOWERED
HIGHS A TAD FROM EARLIER FORECAST...BUT MAY NOT HAVE LOWERED THEM
ENOUGH.  THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE IF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL COLD POOL IN WHICH CASE WE COULD BE STUCK IN THE 60S IN SOME
OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

HEAVY RAIN SEEMS TO BE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS A MUCH MORE DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO THE REGION. RAINFALL COVERAGE AND RATES WILL GREATLY INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. AMPLIFYING PRECIPITATION
IS THE FACT THAT THE CWA WILL BE TEMPORARILY CAUGHT IN THE FAVORABLE
ZONES OF A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE. WITH PWAT VALUES SO HIGH...OVER 2
INCHES...COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACH A FEW INCHES. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER A HYDROLOGIC WATCH OF SOME TYPE. FOR
NOW...WILL INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN IN GRIDS AND BUMP UP POPS FURTHER.

THURSDAY REMAINS A TRICKY FORECAST AS LARGER SYNOPTIC TROUGH REMAINS
SITUATED ACROSS COLORADO. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE ZONE REMAINS
SPRAWLED ACROSS THE REGION AND WOULD FAVOR REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW...PULLING THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH THROUGH
THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  THIS WOULD
KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OVER
NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND AS
TROUGHING DIGS BACK INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. EXPECT AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
LATER TONIGHT...AND PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER AFTER 09Z.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THIS CONVECTION GETS...BUT
FEEL THE THREAT OF IT REACHING KSUX IS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP A TEMPO
GROUP BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. STORMS COULD LINGER AFTER THIS..BUT THINK
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE LOWER AFTER THIS TIME...UNTIL
REGENERATION OCCURS WEDNESDAY EVENING. SHOULD HAVE SOME MVFR...OR
EVEN IFR...CIGS ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...WITH THESE LOWER CIGS
POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO MID AFTERNOON AT KSUX. KEPT THINGS VFR AT
KFSD AS FEEL LIKE REDUCTIONS SHOULD MOST LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST
AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...CHENARD






000
FXUS63 KFSD 270158
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
858 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MADE A FEW CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO POPS. FIRST...INCLUDED SOME
SMALL POPS FURTHER NORTH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY GOING ON IN NORTHWEST NEB AND FAR
SOUTHWEST SD. SO THEREFORE SMALL POPS ARE NOW IN THERE FOR
CHAMBERLAIN AND HURON. THE HIGH POPS FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES FOR
VERY LATE TONIGHT STILL LOOK ON TARGET AS MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD. BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED RIGHT ALONG OUR MO
RIVER VALLEY ZONES. LASTLY...TEMPERED THE POPS ON WEDNESDAY FOR
OUR EASTERN ZONES. LATEST INDICATIONS FROM SOME OF THE 18Z MODEL
RUNS SHOW THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO OUR EAST MIGHT BE TOO
STRONG TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO RUN INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ONCE AGAIN THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE CONVECTION CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA.  LOOKS LIKE THE EVENING WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA....CLOSER TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR.  AND WITH THE CONTINUATION OF
THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FRONT...I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO
MOVE MUCH TO THE NORTH.  WITH THAT IN MIND...I HAVE POPS FAIRLY LOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH 09Z.  AFTER 09Z...START TO INCREASE
THE POPS AS ALL HIRES MODELS POINT TO THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH.  WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 12Z BUT DIDNT GET CARRIED AWAY WITH IT
AS I THINK THE MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH WITH FRONT AND
THEREFORE WITH CONVECTION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA AND FAIRLY
WET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.  ALL MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER
WAVE TO BE EJECTED TOWARDS THE TRI STATE AREA DURING THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.  AREAS THAT DONT SEE THE PRECIP WONT
ESCAPE THE INFLUENCE OF THE WAVE AS THE CLOUDS WILL BE WIDESPREAD.
AND TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.  LOWERED
HIGHS A TAD FROM EARLIER FORECAST...BUT MAY NOT HAVE LOWERED THEM
ENOUGH.  THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE IF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL COLD POOL IN WHICH CASE WE COULD BE STUCK IN THE 60S IN SOME
OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

HEAVY RAIN SEEMS TO BE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS A MUCH MORE DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO THE REGION. RAINFALL COVERAGE AND RATES WILL GREATLY INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. AMPLIFYING PRECIPITATION
IS THE FACT THAT THE CWA WILL BE TEMPORARILY CAUGHT IN THE FAVORABLE
ZONES OF A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE. WITH PWAT VALUES SO HIGH...OVER 2
INCHES...COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACH A FEW INCHES. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER A HYDROLOGIC WATCH OF SOME TYPE. FOR
NOW...WILL INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN IN GRIDS AND BUMP UP POPS FURTHER.

THURSDAY REMAINS A TRICKY FORECAST AS LARGER SYNOPTIC TROUGH REMAINS
SITUATED ACROSS COLORADO. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE ZONE REMAINS
SPRAWLED ACROSS THE REGION AND WOULD FAVOR REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW...PULLING THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH THROUGH
THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  THIS WOULD
KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OVER
NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND AS
TROUGHING DIGS BACK INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. EXPECT AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
LATER TONIGHT...AND PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER AFTER 09Z.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THIS CONVECTION GETS...BUT
FEEL THE THREAT OF IT REACHING KSUX IS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP A TEMPO
GROUP BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. STORMS COULD LINGER AFTER THIS..BUT THINK
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE LOWER AFTER THIS TIME...UNTIL
REGENERATION OCCURS WEDNESDAY EVENING. SHOULD HAVE SOME MVFR...OR
EVEN IFR...CIGS ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...WITH THESE LOWER CIGS
POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO MID AFTERNOON AT KSUX. KEPT THINGS VFR AT
KFSD AS FEEL LIKE REDUCTIONS SHOULD MOST LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST
AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...CHENARD







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