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000
FXUS63 KABR 260547 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1247 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

06z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 624 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Made a few minor changes to pops this evening west of the Missouri
River. Otherwise, continuing to track a severe storm moving east
across the southern CWA this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 342 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Thunderstorms are beginning to intensify just W of the CWA this
afternoon that has produced significant hail. Expect them to track E
around 20kts, and stay mainly as discrete cells through 00Z. At that
point they may diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Will
continue to closely monitor incoming and developing severe weather
potential in our high CAPE and marginal shear environment.

Current fcst would have precip exiting E shortly after 06Z, with dry
weather then being the rule through early afternoon Thursday. The
focus for showers and thunderstorms will be over the far W, and the
SE corners of the CWA. Just going with general thunderstorms for
Thursday. SPC has the Marginal and slight risk areas over the SE
corner of SD. Expect highs again tomorrow to top out in the 70s for
most areas, with low 80s possible over W Central MN.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Thursday night will probably be a dry forecast period, while upper
level confluent flow is over the region. However, when an upper low
currently over southern California lifts north-northeast across the
region Friday through Saturday, precipitation chances will abound.
Then, it appears some weak mid-level ridging/height rises develop
over the Northern Plains, shutting off the vast majority of
precipitation chances from Saturday night through Sunday night.
Beyond that, longer range model output continues to suggest more
precipitation chances setting up across the region Monday through
Tuesday as the next low pressure system deepens while moving east
over the Dakotas into Minnesota. This system is also expected to
bring breezy to windy conditions Tuesday night and Wednesday. Highs
through the period will be mainly in the 70s and 80s across the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

VFR conditions are expected through Thursday evening. Showers may
develop late in the taf period near KMBG, KABR, and KATY. Added in a
vcsh mention for now until confidence increases in timing and areal
extent.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Mohr



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000
FXUS63 KUNR 260514
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1114 PM MDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 136 PM MDT Wed May 25 2016

WATER VAPOR SHOWS PERSITENT UPPER LOW OVER FAR NRN MT WITH
DISTINCT SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH WRN SD. AT THE SFC...LOW IS
CENTERED OVER FAR SERN ND. SCT TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE
BLKHLS EWD THROUGH WCNTRL SD.

REST OF THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...SCT TSTMS WILL PUSH EWD INTO CNTRL SD
AS THE AFORMENTIONED SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
PCPN FREE BY MID EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO THE CWFA. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS
IN THE 40S...AND SOME 30S FROM NERN WY INTO THE BLKHLS.

THURSDAY...MAIN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH ERN MT.
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND MLCAPE OF 1000-2000J/KG (HIGHEST
TOWARDS THE NEB BORDER) EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS. BEST SVR
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH/EAST.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 136 PM MDT Wed May 25 2016

Persistent upper level trough over the northwest
CONUS will keep active southwest flow across the Northern Plains
through the Memorial Day weekend. Periodic shortwave energy will
eject out of the trough, keeping a daily chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast through the holiday weekend.
Temperatures will be near seasonal averages, with highs each day
generally in the mid 60s to upper 70s. Lows at night will be in the
40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued At 1110 PM MDT Wed May 25 2016

Isolated showers will be possible across the western half early
thurs morning. Another disturbance will bring chances for
showers/ts to the region thur aft. Mvfr/ifr conds will be
possible in shra/ts. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 252317
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
517 PM MDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 136 PM MDT Wed May 25 2016

WATER VAPOR SHOWS PERSITENT UPPER LOW OVER FAR NRN MT WITH
DISTINCT SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH WRN SD. AT THE SFC...LOW IS
CENTERED OVER FAR SERN ND. SCT TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE
BLKHLS EWD THROUGH WCNTRL SD.

REST OF THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...SCT TSTMS WILL PUSH EWD INTO CNTRL SD
AS THE AFORMENTIONED SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
PCPN FREE BY MID EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO THE CWFA. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS
IN THE 40S...AND SOME 30S FROM NERN WY INTO THE BLKHLS.

THURSDAY...MAIN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH ERN MT.
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND MLCAPE OF 1000-2000J/KG (HIGHEST
TOWARDS THE NEB BORDER) EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS. BEST SVR
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH/EAST.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 136 PM MDT Wed May 25 2016

Persistent upper level trough over the northwest
CONUS will keep active southwest flow across the Northern Plains
through the Memorial Day weekend. Periodic shortwave energy will
eject out of the trough, keeping a daily chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast through the holiday weekend.
Temperatures will be near seasonal averages, with highs each day
generally in the mid 60s to upper 70s. Lows at night will be in the
40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued At 516 PM MDT Wed May 25 2016

Sct Showers and thunderstorms will gradually dissipate this
evening. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JC



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000
FXUS63 KFSD 252051
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
351 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Instability still looks sufficient for severe storms late this
afternoon and evening with modest 1500 or so CAPE, but shear is
looking a little less supportive than it did earlier with
directional wind profiles dampened by veering of lower level winds.
Of course the doubt remains in both initiation and coverage of
storms with heating dampened somewhat by lingering low level
moisture and clouds, apparently partly related to the storms that
west through in the early morning, and somewhat of a cap to be
broken. It seems best to keep coverage isolated. The HRRR has been
tracking a few storms across the area during the coming evening
hours, with the strongest activity south of Interstate 90. This
activity may be a reflection of an impulse that seems apparent in
current activity over western nebraska. The HRRR also brings a
couple cells across further north. Will keep pops low given the
unfavorable parameters for convection to become even remotely
widespread.

As the low level flow brings in more stable air, and with nocturnal
cooling, any activity should die off later tonight without a decent
low level jet to support our patented nocturnal storms. Skies should
be clear to partly cloudy with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.

The quiet weather should continue well into Thursday, until the
backing of the upper flow ahead of an approaching southern plains
wave induces an increase in low level moisture and overall
instability from the south and southeast. This will bring a threat
of storms to the southeast half of the area in the afternoon,
mainly in northwest Iowa and extreme northeast Nebraska, with some
severe threat. Temperatures should warm into the lower 80s east and
the upper 70s west.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

A very active and wet pattern persists into early next week as a
series of shortwaves lift northeast through Great Plains. Upper
level trough over the central and southern Rockies arrives in the
high plains Thursday night, and slowly wobbles north northeast
across our forecast area through Saturday night. With low level
moisture continuing to tap into gulf moisture and several impulses
traversing the mid level flow, showers and thunderstorms will remain
likely each forecast period through Saturday. There is a low chance
for severe weather Thursday evening into the overnight hours, with
moderate instability and marginal shear values as the warm front
noses into central or northern Nebraska. Friday`s severe chances
will hinge on how overnight convection will impact the airmass and
where any boundaries set up across the region. Shear is a little
less favorable on Friday and cloud cover may impede instability
development.

The upper low lifts out of the region Saturday night, with weak
ridging/subsidence keeping shower and thunderstorm chances to a
minimum on Sunday. The drier conditions are short lived as the upper
level southwest flow directs yet another series of shortwaves into
the central Plains. Models still a bit uncertain in the timing of
waves, but high chance pops Monday into Wednesday seem warranted for
now.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 26/18Z WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS 3-5K FEET
THROUGH 26/05Z. ISOLATED TSRA 25/22Z-26/05Z WITH LOCAL AND VERY
BRIEF LOWERING OF VISIBILITIES TO 3-5SM.


&&

.FSD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KABR 252042
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
342 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 342 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Thunderstorms are beginning to intensify just W of the CWA this
afternoon that has produced significant hail. Expect them to track E
around 20kts, and stay mainly as discrete cells through 00Z. At that
point they may diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Will
continue to closely monitor incoming and developing severe weather
potential in our high CAPE and marginal shear environment.

Current fcst would have precip exiting E shortly after 06Z, with dry
weather then being the rule through early afternoon Thursday. The
focus for showers and thunderstorms will be over the far W, and the
SE corners of the CWA. Just going with general thunderstorms for
Thursday. SPC has the Marginal and slight risk areas over the SE
corner of SD. Expect highs again tomorrow to top out in the 70s for
most areas, with low 80s possible over W Central MN.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Thursday night will probably be a dry forecast period, while upper
level confluent flow is over the region. However, when an upper low
currently over southern California lifts north-northeast across the
region Friday through Saturday, precipitation chances will abound.
Then, it appears some weak mid-level ridging/height rises develop
over the Northern Plains, shutting off the vast majority of
precipitation chances from Saturday night through Sunday night.
Beyond that, longer range model output continues to suggest more
precipitation chances setting up across the region Monday through
Tuesday as the next low pressure system deepens while moving east
over the Dakotas into Minnesota. This system is also expected to
bring breezy to windy conditions Tuesday night and Wednesday. Highs
through the period will be mainly in the 70s and 80s across the CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

MVFR to VFR clouds remain across the area this afternoon, with
ournext round of showers and thunderstorms nearing MBG-PIR around
20-22Z, before slowly sliding E and weakening with the loss of
daytime heating, and ending all together near ATY by around 06Z
Thursday.The best chance of seeing any showers/thunderstorms will
be at MBG,with only VCSH mentioned so far at the rest of the TAF
sites.Otherwise, VFR ceilings and VIS are expected for the daytime
hours Thursday.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...KF




000
FXUS63 KABR 251533
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1033 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Increased POPs initially to indicate the steady rainfall over NE
SD and W Central MN, this is now exiting the area. A thin line of
additional showers has developed behind the steady rain, and it
too will exit later this morning. Updated HWO to diminish morning
threat, but keep the potential going for mid afternoon to evening.
Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop mainly after 20Z W of
a line from PIR to MBG and slide E this evening.

UPDATE Issued at 655 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

12z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 412 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

MCS continues to move across eastern SD early this morning with the
northern end weakening over the CWA. Still seeing some decent
looking convective elements over FSD CWA moving northward and will
likely be affecting the southeastern counties over the next couple
hours. Earlier storms over the southern CWA produced some small hail
and 40 to 55 mph wind gusts for the most part.

Focus will shift to severe potential later today but it is a rather
complex situation. Will first have to deal with morning activity
across the eastern CWA and will need clouds to depart for
destabilization to once again occur. Secondary upper level wave of
energy is currently off to our southwest and expect that to slide
through the area later today giving us the next chance for storm
redevelopment. Plume of weak to moderate instability surges
northward over eastern SD and west central MN this afternoon and
evening although best 0-6km shear remains further south. But we will
see a decent mid level southwesterly jet moving through the region
this afternoon with a subtle surface wind shift boundary. This will
likely be the focus for any storm development later this afternoon.
Interesting to note that CAM solutions do not show much in the way
of areal coverage of storms, perhaps due to the lack of strong
convergence at the surface. Feel there will be some degree of
redevelopment later today and the potential is certainly there for
strong to severe storms.

Thursday appears to be mostly dry across the CWA but will be
watching western and central SD for precip potential as upper low
spins across eastern MT and western ND. Friday will see the arrival
of the next wave of low pressure which will set the stage for shower
and thunderstorm chances.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

The models have changed some with the evolution of the long wave
pattern across the U.S. during the long term. The models now do not
show a large upper level low pressure area developing over the
Pacific Northwest. They now just show some 50h troughing over this
region. To begin the period, the models all show an upper level low
pressure area off to our southeast over western ks lifting northeast
and across eastern SD through Saturday night. This will bring good
chances of showers and storms for this time period. At this time,
have in low chances/slight chances of showers and storms Sunday,
Sunday night, into Monday. May be able to cut back on these pops
more or remove them in the next forecast as the models were showing
a modest 50h ridge axis pushing across the region. Will see if this
trend continues in later model runs. Otherwise...the Pacific
Northwest 50h troughing digs east and into our region Monday into
Tuesday. This should bring in better chances of showers and storms
for mainly Monday night into Tuesday. Highs through the period will
be mainly in the mid 70s to the lower 80s across the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 655 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Showers and thunderstorms will affect ABR and ATY this morning as
the responsible short wave trough lifts north. Otherwise...expect
vfr conditions through the entire taf period. A new round of showers
and thunderstorms is expected to develop this afternoon and evening
as another short wave trough swings across the region. These could
affect the taf locations.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Mohr




000
FXUS63 KABR 251157
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
657 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

12z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 412 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

MCS continues to move across eastern SD early this morning with the
northern end weakening over the CWA. Still seeing some decent
looking convective elements over FSD CWA moving northward and will
likely be affecting the southeastern counties over the next couple
hours. Earlier storms over the southern CWA produced some small hail
and 40 to 55 mph wind gusts for the most part.

Focus will shift to severe potential later today but it is a rather
complex situation. Will first have to deal with morning activity
across the eastern CWA and will need clouds to depart for
destabilization to once again occur. Secondary upper level wave of
energy is currently off to our southwest and expect that to slide
through the area later today giving us the next chance for storm
redevelopment. Plume of weak to moderate instability surges
northward over eastern SD and west central MN this afternoon and
evening although best 0-6km shear remains further south. But we will
see a decent mid level southwesterly jet moving through the region
this afternoon with a subtle surface wind shift boundary. This will
likely be the focus for any storm development later this afternoon.
Interesting to note that CAM solutions do not show much in the way
of areal coverage of storms, perhaps due to the lack of strong
convergence at the surface. Feel there will be some degree of
redevelopment later today and the potential is certainly there for
strong to severe storms.

Thursday appears to be mostly dry across the CWA but will be
watching western and central SD for precip potential as upper low
spins across eastern MT and western ND. Friday will see the arrival
of the next wave of low pressure which will set the stage for shower
and thunderstorm chances.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

The models have changed some with the evolution of the long wave
pattern across the U.S. during the long term. The models now do not
show a large upper level low pressure area developing over the
Pacific Northwest. They now just show some 50h troughing over this
region. To begin the period, the models all show an upper level low
pressure area off to our southeast over western ks lifting northeast
and across eastern SD through Saturday night. This will bring good
chances of showers and storms for this time period. At this time,
have in low chances/slight chances of showers and storms Sunday,
Sunday night, into Monday. May be able to cut back on these pops
more or remove them in the next forecast as the models were showing
a modest 50h ridge axis pushing across the region. Will see if this
trend continues in later model runs. Otherwise...the Pacific
Northwest 50h troughing digs east and into our region Monday into
Tuesday. This should bring in better chances of showers and storms
for mainly Monday night into Tuesday. Highs through the period will
be mainly in the mid 70s to the lower 80s across the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 655 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Showers and thunderstorms will affect ABR and ATY this morning as
the responsible short wave trough lifts north. Otherwise...expect
vfr conditions through the entire taf period. A new round of showers
and thunderstorms is expected to develop this afternoon and evening
as another short wave trough swings across the region. These could
affect the taf locations.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Mohr




000
FXUS63 KUNR 250555
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1155 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 811 PM MDT Tue May 24 2016
Made a few little changes to tonight to increase pops for the next
few hours over northeastern Wyoming as convection is redeveloping
as the wave pushes through. Also increased pops over south central
as MCS begins to develop and move east. Temperatures appear to
remain on track...but adjusted the wind direction to account for
the latest trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 218 PM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Upper low spins over southern Saskatchewan, with southwest flow
and a 70-80 kt jet over the CWA. At the surface, there`s an area
of high pressure over western ND and low pressure over southern
WY. Winds across the CWA are southeasterly, bringing in more moist
air with dew points in the 40s across central/western SD. Dew
points are in the 30s across northeastern WY, with cooler temps in
the 60s. Clouds are increasing, and radar is showing some showers
over portions of the area.

Upper divergence and energy associated with the low pressure system
will aid in thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening,
with the best energy over Nebraska. Instability is marginal over
much of northeastern WY and western SD, with the best MLCAPE near
1000 J/kg along the Nebraska border. However, 0-6km shear up to 60
kts may result in a few severe thunderstorms. Precipitable water
this evening will be around 150% of normal. Forecast soundings
indicate the biggest threats will be strong winds and heavy rain,
although large hail cannot be ruled out, especially near the
Nebraska border. Hi-res convective models are showing a band of
thunderstorms moving through the CWA this evening, shifting east of
the area by morning. Additionally, there may be a secondary batch of
storms that moves through the northeastern WY/Black Hills area as
more shortwave energy pushes into the region.

On Wednesday, NAM and GFS are showing the upper low splitting into
two lows, while the ECMWF has a strong wave instead of a closed low.
Nonetheless, this low/wave will help produce more showers/storms
across the area, with better chances across northwestern SD. Surface
low will move through SD and drag a cold front through the area.
Highs will range from the 60s across the western CWA to the lower
80s across south central SD. With dew points in the mid to upper 50s
across central SD, models are showing MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
there. Best 0-6 km shear of 35-45 kts is also over south central SD,
and so that area will have the greatest chance in our CWA of any
thunderstorms becoming severe.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Persistent upper level troughing over the northwest
CONUS will keep active southwest flow across the Northern Plains
through the Memorial Day weekend. Periodic shortwave energy will
eject out of the trough, keeping a daily chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast through the holiday weekend.
Temperatures will be near seasonal averages, with highs each day
generally in the mid 60s to upper 70s. Lows at night will be in the
40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued At 1151 PM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Sct showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east across
the area overnight. MVFR conditions will be possible near any
precipitation. A cold front will move into the area early this
morning with mvfr to ifr conds possible across ne wy into nw sd.
Conds will trend vfr all locations later this morning into the
afternoon.


&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Update...MS
SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...15




000
FXUS63 KABR 250555 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1255 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

06z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

A fairly active twenty four hours coming up. For tnt low res as
well as convection allowing models prog storms developing over the
western high plains of Nebraska/South Dakota...then riding the LLJ
east through the night. Other than an isolated strong to severe
storm am not expecting much other than some potential heavy rain.
Also there is a weak sfc low in far northeast South Dakota with
some towering cu/moderate cu developing over western Minnesota.
This activity may affect my far northeast cwa so have thrown in a
slight chc pop for the evening.

On Wednesday the showers/storms should move mostly out of the area
by late morning or early afternoon. Strong diabatic heating in the
late afternoon across the cwa could result in some pretty decent ml
capes...especially if near 60 dewpoints can be realized.  Low level
shear is weak and deep layer shear is marginal so perhaps isolated
pulse type svr could materialize...but then die off quickly by mid
evening.  Most of the activity ends overnight Wednesday with
Thursday likely to be tranquil and dry.  Temperatures through the
period will average out near to slightly above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

An active weather pattern is expected through the holiday weekend
and into the early part of next week.

The period begins with an upper level trough of low pressure over
the central plains. This systems will slowly lift northward through
Saturday night with shower and thunderstorms possible. Severe storms
are not expected with this shortwave.

Sunday could be dry through a good portion of the day. If skies
become clear on Sunday...than a frontal passage late in the day
could set the stage for strong to severe storms. The GFS is
suggesting MU-Cape values could exceed 4K J/KG. As of now...the GFS
only shows 20 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear. Will not get too excited
about severe weather as this event is a few days away. Additional
showers and thunderstorms look possible Monday and Tuesday as
shortwaves continue to impact the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to lift northeast across the
region through the early morning hours affecting all locations.
Otherwise...expect vfr conditions through the entire taf period. A
new round of showers and thunderstorms is expected on Wednesday
during the afternoon and evening possibly affecting the taf
locations.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Mohr




000
FXUS63 KFSD 242355
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
655 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

A warm and pleasant evening is expected across the region with a
weak bit of subsidence shifting across the area. Southwest upper
level flow however will direct yet another shortwave into the
Missouri Valley a little after midnight and lift it northeast
through the forecast area overnight into Wednesday morning. Weak
surface boundary remains stalled across central SD and another
boundary parked across southern Kansas. As the surface low in
Colorado lifts northeast this evening and the low level jet kicks
in...the boundary to our south lifts northward. Convection is
expected to develop across Nebraska later this afternoon and evening
and push into south central SD and the Mo Valley region late evening
into the early morning hours.

The big question will be whether convection can get going this
evening ahead of the main wave. The HRRR and GFS develops scattered
convection by mid evening in southeast SD to the south of
I90...likely triggering off of the diffuse boundary in south central
SD. Convergence is very weak here and a bit more defined in central
Nebraska. Modest instability has developed along with steep lapse
rates, however effective shear is pretty marginal and some weak
capping exists. If elevated thunderstorms do manage to develop in
south central or near the Missouri Valley this evening, a few storms
could become strong to severe with half dollar hail and gusts up to
60 mph. Did leave an isolated to scattered thunderstorm mention in
the forecast near the Missouri Valley. The experimental HRRR,
NAMDNG, NAM, and ECMWF however, keeps the region dry through the
evening.

Tonight, showers and thunderstorms will become likely as the wave
lifts through the region. Storms will track northeast and while the
severe threat wanes quickly after midnight with effective shear
values dropping quickly, fairly high precipitable water values above
1.25 inches will keep the threat for heavy rainfall going.
Fortunately, it does look like activity will be moving fairly
quickly. Still, with recent heavy rainfall in northwest Iowa and
southwest Minnesota, will need to watch for flash flooding concerns.

Wednesday`s forecast is a tricky one. Ongoing convection in the
morning will lift to the northeast by mid/late morning. With clouds
becoming scattered to broken and potentially allowing temperatures
to heat back into the low to mid 80s with dewpoints in the low 60s,
we potentially become moderately unstable. Without much in the way of
lift, temperatures will need to heat out fully, so any thunderstorm
development will be quite conditional on how early morning
convection impacts the airmass in its wake. This will also make it
difficult to go above chance pops given the uncertainty.  Severe
storms will again be possible in the afternoon if anything manages
to form. Shear looks a little better than this evening, but still
somewhat marginal.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Wednesday evening thunderstorms are expected to wane steadily later
in the night with the exit of the short wave and the inflow from the
west and northwest of somewhat drier and more stable air. After
coordinating it looks like we can go for no mention of storms in
the area for Thursday morning, then a threat Thursday afternoon and
night, as that moisture and instability increase from the southeast.
Meanwhile, an upper low moving from the four corners area into the
southern plains will begin to move north northeast and amplify the
moisture availability as it approaches SD and IA. This will likely
bring widespread showers and storms to the area for parts of the
Friday through Saturday time frame. Will hold pops to the loaded
extended values of likely at most for now because of the usual
timing issues that far ahead, but one or two periods in that time
frame should have rain affecting most of the area.

Some severe storm threat seems possible with late Thursday and
Thursday evening storms, given the recovering instability and likely
good heating. Friday through Saturday severe threat is uncertain,
with modest shear ahead of the approaching upper low, but possibly
weak heating in the broadly increasing moisture field.

The Friday and Saturday system should pull northeast and leave a
mostly rain free Sunday, but will leave some fairly small chance
mainly in southwest MN for Sunday in case the upper low is slow to
pull out. Monday is uncertain, with a strong wave digging into the
Pacific Northwest area suggesting plains ridging and not much
convection. However, instability should also start to increase
again, so a chance of storms seems appropriate.

Modestly warm and humid conditions, certainly not really worthy of
summer yet, will keep high temperatures well into the 70s or low
80s, with lows in the 50s to low 60s. The cooler days will be the
cloudiest, such as Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected to persist through early Wednesday
morning. Convection may try to develop later this evening ahead of
a larger complex of storms anticipated to move eastward overnight.

While the widespread severe weather risk is low. A stronger wind
gust or marginal hail producing storm is possible as these storms
move through. Convection will push east of the Interstate 29
terminals by mid-morning and expectations are that stratus will
move in through mid-day.

Depending on how overnight storms progress, we`ll again have a
risk for more thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.FSD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Dux




000
FXUS63 KABR 242349 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
649 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Made a few minor adjustments to pops this evening. Pushed back the
start time out west as precip is having a hard time overcoming the
30 degree dewpoint spreads. Temperatures and winds needed no
changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

A fairly active twenty four hours coming up.  For tnt low res as
well as convection allowing models prog storms developing over the
western high plains of Nebraska/South Dakota...then riding the LLJ
east through the night. Other than an isolated strong to severe
storm am not expecting much other than some potential heavy rain.
Also there is a weak sfc low in far northeast South Dakota with some
towering cu/moderate cu developing over western Minnesota. This
activity may affect my far northeast cwa so have thrown in a
slight chc pop for the evening.

On Wednesday the showers/storms should move mostly out of the area
by late morning or early afternoon. Strong diabatic heating in the
late afternoon across the cwa could result in some pretty decent ml
capes...especially if near 60 dewpoints can be realized.  Low level
shear is weak and deep layer shear is marginal so perhaps isolated
pulse type svr could materialize...but then die off quickly by mid
evening.  Most of the activity ends overnight Wednesday with
Thursday likely to be tranquil and dry.  Temperatures through the
period will average out near to slightly above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

An active weather pattern is expected through the holiday weekend
and into the early part of next week.

The period begins with an upper level trough of low pressure over
the central plains. This systems will slowly lift northward through
Saturday night with shower and thunderstorms possible. Severe storms
are not expected with this shortwave.

Sunday could be dry through a good portion of the day. If skies
become clear on Sunday...than a frontal passage late in the day
could set the stage for strong to severe storms. The GFS is
suggesting MU-Cape values could exceed 4K J/KG. As of now...the GFS
only shows 20 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear. Will not get too excited
about severe weather as this event is a few days away. Additional
showers and thunderstorms look possible Monday and Tuesday as
shortwaves continue to impact the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected at all taf sites with light winds.
Showers and thunderstorms across western SD will move north and
east tonight. Thunderstorms may begin to impact KPIR around 3z and
KMBG by 6z. Rain will then spread east by 9z. There will likely be
a break in the precip late Wed morning into early Wed afternoon
before another round of showers and thunderstorms develop across
eastern SD.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Wise




000
FXUS63 KFSD 241801
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
101 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 432 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Should be on the quiet side during the daylight hours today, with
areas of fog in areas east of the James River Valley early this
morning in the wake of MCS pulling east through central Iowa. Most
areas will see mostly sunny skies today, though will see some early
morning stratus associated with the aformentioned fog, and a cirrus
shield expanding northward from convection in northern Kansas will
brush through northwest Iowa this morning as well.

This line of convection has pushed main surface boundary well south
of the forecast area this morning, with another boundary/moisture
discontinuity located from north central Nebraska through northeast
South Dakota into the Red River Valley. The latter boundary weakens
as it pushes east through the day, but the greatest model consensus
still depicts the drier low level air behind the boundary expanding
over most of eastern South Dakota/western Minnesota by mid to late
afternoon. With shortwave mid-upper level ridge moving northeast
across eastern South Dakota through 25/00Z, have favored high-res
model solutions which keep any convective redevelopment suppressed
to our south and west in Nebraska and western South Dakota into the
evening. Expected sunshine and fair mixing in the drier air mass
should allow most areas to climb into the lower 80s for highs today.

Concerns for tonight hinge on timing of mid-upper level wave and how
quickly it can drag the low level warm front back into our forecast
area. Wave begins to impact the forecast area during the evening,
but currently appears as though warm front and associated low level
jet convergence will remain focused in Nebraska until after 06Z. As
a result, have trimmed pops back through the evening, but quickly
ramp pops up into high likely range around 06Z as the wave swings
through and elevated warm front attempts to lift toward the Missouri
River Valley later tonight. NAM forecast soundings show decent mid
level lapse rates and modest effective shear in the late afternoon
and evening, and if storms are able to develop prior to 06Z, could
see some hail threat from what should be largely elevated storms.
Greater threat should remain south of our forecast area, however,
closer to the low level boundaries. Strong moisture push from the
south through the evening brings precipitable water values back to
near 1.5 inches, and as low level jet turns more southwesterly in
response to the passing wave, we could see threat of locally heavy
rain become primary concern overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 432 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Wednesday is a difficult forecast as there is likely to be ongoing
convection to start.  Corfidi vectors suggest convection should work
east through the morning hours.  As the atmosphere warms in the low
levels, forecast soundings suggest the potential of convection
redeveloping east of the James river with strong enough heating.
Despite searching, could not find a strong trigger mechanism, which
may limit the coverage of any convection that is able to get going.
As such, kept pops mainly in the low chance range.

Cold front is is expected to work across the western half of the
forecast area Wednesday night.  Upper low is passing to the north
across North Dakota, and front across the forecast area is really
suffering from a lack of support aloft.  As such, appears as though
the front will struggle to move completely through the forecast
area.  Have highest pops in the north, but am not convinced large
scale convection will build far enough south into the forecast area.

Airmass ahead of the orphaned boundary becomes unstable throughout
the day on Thursday.  Very steep lapse rates from 700-600 mb leads
to 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE.  In addition, there is nice directional
and speed shear, potentially leading to bulk shear of 25-30 m/s if
convection is able to become surface based.  The question is whether
convection will be able to become surface based with elevated
inversion.  Model sounding appear to artificially erode the cap too
quick. There is southwest flow aloft, but not a strong wave moving
through the area until Thursday night into Friday. Have continued to
raise pops with this feature. With a fair amount of clouds on Friday
into Saturday, favored cooler guidance values.

Not as much convection is expected through the latter half of the
weekend; however, Sunday night appears to be interesting with
potential low level jet developing across the plains.  Southwest
flow remains aloft across the area with troughiness over the west
coast, so there is the potential of a shortwave or two lifting
through the region. Have maintained chance pops Sunday night and
beyond, but at this time, is too far out to discern the details.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the bulk of the forecast
period. Late this evening, showers and thunderstorms will start
working northeastward into the Missouri Valley and south central
SD, then expand across the remainder of the forecast area
overnight. Cannot rule out mvfr or ifr ceilings and visibility in
the heavier thunderstorms, so have hinted at lower ceilings late
tonight through mid morning at TAF sites.

&&

.FSD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KUNR 241722
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1122 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 310 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Current surface map high pressure across Montana with weak trof
from northeast to southwest South Dakota. Mostly clear skies
across the forecast. Upper low continues to spin across southern
Saskatchewan with shortwave moving through eastern Dakotas.
Another upper low is located over California. Sunny skies and
rapid warmup in store for the area this morning, then becoming
very active this afternoon and evening. Short range models in very
good agreement with shortwave lifting through eastern Wyoming into
western South Dakota with strong lift enhanced by right entrance
region of jet streak across North Dakota. Convective allowing
models show widespread thunderstorms late this afternoon into the
evening hours. The biggest issue will be return of low level
moisture and amount of instability. Surface dewpoints currently in
the 30s to lower 40s across the forecast area. Latest RAP/NAM
bring some lower 50 dewpoints into southwest South Dakota this
afternoon, while HRRR maintains lower to mid 40 dewpoints. With
lack of stronger return flow until this afternoon, RAP/NAM may a
little on the high side. Either way, the best instability will be
along southern portions of forecast area. Sufficient shear for
supercells, especially from southern Black Hills/Southwest South
Dakota. Bulk of convection should move north and east of the
forecast area after midnight. Upper low shift into eastern Montana
on Wednesday. Steep mid level lapse rates with marginal Boundary
layer moisture will result in scattered showers/thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Persistent upper level troughing over the northwest
CONUS will keep active southwest flow across the Northern Plains
through the Memorial Day weekend. Periodic shortwave energy will
eject out of the trough, keeping a daily chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast through the holiday weekend.
Temperatures will be near seasonal averages, with highs each day in
the mid 60s to upper 70s. Lows at night will be in the 40s to mid
50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued At 1120 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area this
afternoon into the evening. Some strong storms will be
possible...mainly near the Nebraska border. MVFR/IFR conditions
will be possible near any precipitation.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KABR 241152
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
652 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

12z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 356 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Have been seeing isolated showers and storms along the ND/SD
border over the past few hours but now activity has waned to
basically just a few sprinkles over north central SD. Water vapor
imagery does show a weak vort max across western/central SD early
this morning, and as this continues to move east-northeast, any
threat for isolated convection should shift into ND over the next
couple hours.

The short term period looks to be active, although the daytime
period today looks rather uneventful. Will continue to see warm
temperatures today with most locations rising into the 80s. Focus
then shifts to the evening/overnight period as shortwave energy
moves northeast into the region along with a surface wave
reflection. Instability stays on the low end so overall severe storm
threat appears to be low. A few stronger storms are still possible
with gusty winds perhaps. Models agree fairly well on timing with
central SD getting into the act around or shortly after 00Z this
evening. Then, activity continues to push east into the James Valley
and towards I-29 through the night. Low level jet develops overnight
over the eastern CWA, but as mentioned before, instability is held
in check for the most part. CAM solutions all show a fairly well
organized line/cluster of storms pushing across the CWA overnight,
but perhaps some breaks over the eastern CWA late. Nonetheless,
precip chances for tonight are on the high end for many areas.

With the warm front pushing north of the area on Wednesday,
dewpoints within the warm sector increase to around 60 degrees over
the CWA. This will bring more instability over the region by
afternoon compared to what we will see today. Although, models are
not handling subtle upper level features and surface wind shift
boundaries all that well. Regardless, there still appears to be
decent chances for showers and storms, with potential again for
strong to perhaps severe given the increased instability. It is
noted though that best 0-6km shear values are south of the region,
which will likely act to suppress more organized supercell
structures and overall severe storm threat.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

The active pattern continues across our region from Thursday night
through Monday as all models have remained consistent from run to
run and agree really well with the upper level flow pattern. The
first significant short wave will lift out of the southwest and move
slowly across the central and northern plains from Thursday night
through Saturday night bringing chances of showers and
thunderstorms. The models all then show a large upper low pressure
area setting up over the Pacific Northwest and remaining into Monday.
This will send off several short waves across our region into
Monday...keeping the chances of showers and storms going.
Although...there may be a break in the action Sunday into Sunday
night. Highs will be near to above normal mostly in the mid 70s to
the lower 80s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 652 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Vfr conditions are expected at all locations through today and
tonight. There may be some fog in the aty area early this morning.
Otherwise...showers and thunderstorms will be spreading into the
region from the southwest this evening and overnight as a short wave
trough moves in.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Mohr




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