Home > Products > State Listing > South Dakota Data
Latest:
 AFDUNR |  AFDABR |  AFDFSD |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KUNR 310423
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1023 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MB WITH
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE CWA. 00Z BIS SOUNDING OVERLAID ON
00Z KUNR SOUNDING SUPPORTS ST/FG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST FOG PRODUCT
SHOWED ST STARTING TO ADVANCE SOUTHWEST AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. 00Z RAP/HRRR SHOW ST ACCELERATING
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND ENVELOPING THE BLACK HILLS OVERNIGHT.
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP ON NORTH/EAST SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS.

FORECAST BEING UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR SLOWER ST/BR INTRUSION BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH SURFACE HIGH
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOW STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF ND AND
NORTHERN/EASTERN SD. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ABOUT 10-15 KTS...AND
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S FARTHER
SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND EASTERLY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AS
WELL...DEVELOPING INTO FOG AS THEY APPROACH HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOG
IS EXPECTED FORM AROUND THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS EVENING AND
EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD OVERNIGHT...WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN HILLS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO THE LOWER
30S IN PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

FOG WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE
EAST ON FRIDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE
STRONGEST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF SD...REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND NOON. AREAS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT DECIDED TO ADD THEM
TO THE WIND ADVISORY. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL SD...TO THE UPPER 50S IN PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

ANYONE PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING WILL HAVE DRY
AND BREEZY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL SD...TO THE MID 50S IN NORTHEASTERN WY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE. MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY...WITH WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SECONDARY LOW
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA. WITH SPLITTING UPPER
FLOW...MAIN FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL SLIDE SOUTHWEST AND LOWER OVERNIGHT CREATING IFR VSBYS DUE
TO FOG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND THE BLACK HILLS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...HELGESON






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KABR 310226 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
926 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OVER THE REGION...WITH MUCH OF THE EASTERN
PART OF THE CWA NOW UNDER CLEAR SKIES. STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER OVER THE WEST...BUT IT IS GETTING PUSHED SOUTH RAPIDLY...AND
EXPECT IT TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. NO CHANGES MADE
TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. THERE IS STILL A SWATH OF STRATUS WORKING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER...AND THIS STRATUS
COULD HAVE HUGE IMPACTS ON LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. THE STRATUS IS
ERODING NICELY ON THE FRONT AND BACK EDGES AND IS MOVING SOUTHWARD
PRETTY QUICKLY. PLUS WITH THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR MOVING
SOUTH...MODEL 850 MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ON THE ORDER OR 40
TO 50 DEGREES...IT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. THIS SHOULD BE AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET UP...AND LOW TWENTIES AND TEENS ARE FORECAST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS ALL FALLS UNDER THE DISCLAIMER THAT SKIES
CLEAR HOWEVER.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AS WELL.
ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS OUR CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA COULD COME CLOSE.
ALTERNATIVELY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST AND TIGHTENS
FURTHER ON SATURDAY...A DIFFERENCE OF AROUND 20 MB ACROSS THE
STATE...SO A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE CWA ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS AND DEAD FUELS
ACROSS THE REGION...THIS MAY BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AS WELL.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. INITIALLY...FLOW IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING ALOFT...WITH
AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THUS...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85 TEMPERATURES +1 TO +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
60S...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA STRUGGLES WITH A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TILL THE NEXT WAVE DEVELOPS AROUND MID WEEK.

BEST FORCING WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES ENDS UP NORTH AND SOUTH
OF THE CWA...SO FOR THE MOST PART THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE A DRY
FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING. AS FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TOWARD
06Z...SKIES WILL CLEAR...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AFFECTING KMBG AND KPIR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 310150
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
750 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MB WITH
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE CWA. 00Z BIS SOUNDING OVERLAID ON
00Z KUNR SOUNDING SUPPORTS ST/FG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST FOG PRODUCT
SHOWED ST STARTING TO ADVANCE SOUTHWEST AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. 00Z RAP/HRRR SHOW ST ACCELERATING
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND ENVELOPING THE BLACK HILLS OVERNIGHT.
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP ON NORTH/EAST SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS.

FORECAST BEING UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR SLOWER ST/BR INTRUSION BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH SURFACE HIGH
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOW STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF ND AND
NORTHERN/EASTERN SD. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ABOUT 10-15 KTS...AND
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S FARTHER
SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND EASTERLY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AS
WELL...DEVELOPING INTO FOG AS THEY APPROACH HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOG
IS EXPECTED FORM AROUND THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS EVENING AND
EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD OVERNIGHT...WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN HILLS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO THE LOWER
30S IN PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

FOG WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE
EAST ON FRIDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE
STRONGEST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF SD...REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND NOON. AREAS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT DECIDED TO ADD THEM
TO THE WIND ADVISORY. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL SD...TO THE UPPER 50S IN PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

ANYONE PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING WILL HAVE DRY
AND BREEZY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL SD...TO THE MID 50S IN NORTHEASTERN WY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE. MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY...WITH WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SECONDARY LOW
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA. WITH SPLITTING UPPER
FLOW...MAIN FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWEST AND DEVELOP THIS EVENING...REACHING THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS CREATING IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND
THE BLACK HILLS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 310150
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
750 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MB WITH
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE CWA. 00Z BIS SOUNDING OVERLAID ON
00Z KUNR SOUNDING SUPPORTS ST/FG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST FOG PRODUCT
SHOWED ST STARTING TO ADVANCE SOUTHWEST AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. 00Z RAP/HRRR SHOW ST ACCELERATING
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND ENVELOPING THE BLACK HILLS OVERNIGHT.
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP ON NORTH/EAST SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS.

FORECAST BEING UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR SLOWER ST/BR INTRUSION BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH SURFACE HIGH
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOW STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF ND AND
NORTHERN/EASTERN SD. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ABOUT 10-15 KTS...AND
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S FARTHER
SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND EASTERLY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AS
WELL...DEVELOPING INTO FOG AS THEY APPROACH HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOG
IS EXPECTED FORM AROUND THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS EVENING AND
EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD OVERNIGHT...WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN HILLS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO THE LOWER
30S IN PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

FOG WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE
EAST ON FRIDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE
STRONGEST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF SD...REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND NOON. AREAS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT DECIDED TO ADD THEM
TO THE WIND ADVISORY. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL SD...TO THE UPPER 50S IN PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

ANYONE PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING WILL HAVE DRY
AND BREEZY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL SD...TO THE MID 50S IN NORTHEASTERN WY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE. MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY...WITH WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SECONDARY LOW
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA. WITH SPLITTING UPPER
FLOW...MAIN FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWEST AND DEVELOP THIS EVENING...REACHING THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS CREATING IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND
THE BLACK HILLS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KABR 302326 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. THERE IS STILL A SWATH OF STRATUS WORKING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER...AND THIS STRATUS
COULD HAVE HUGE IMPACTS ON LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. THE STRATUS IS
ERODING NICELY ON THE  FRONT AND BACK EDGES AND IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD PRETTY QUICKLY. PLUS WITH THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR MOVING
SOUTH...MODEL 850 MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ON THE ORDER OR 40
TO 50 DEGREES...IT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. THIS SHOULD BE AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET UP...AND LOW TWENTIES AND TEENS ARE FORECAST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS ALL FALLS UNDER THE DISCLAIMER THAT SKIES
CLEAR HOWEVER.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AS WELL.
ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS OUR CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA COULD COME CLOSE.
ALTERNATIVELY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST AND TIGHTENS
FURTHER ON SATURDAY...A DIFFERENCE OF AROUND 20 MB ACROSS THE
STATE...SO A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE CWA ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS AND DEAD FUELS
ACROSS THE REGION...THIS MAY BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AS WELL.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. INITIALLY...FLOW IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING ALOFT...WITH
AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THUS...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85 TEMPERATURES +1 TO +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
60S...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA STRUGGLES WITH A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TILL THE NEXT WAVE DEVELOPS AROUND MID WEEK.

BEST FORCING WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES ENDS UP NORTH AND SOUTH
OF THE CWA...SO FOR THE MOST PART THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE A DRY
FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING. AS FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TOWARD
06Z...SKIES WILL CLEAR...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AFFECTING KMBG AND KPIR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KFSD 302317
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
617 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FURTHER CHANGES UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG COLD ADVECTION/STRATUS SOON TO COVER EVEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA AS STRONG WAVE DIGS TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND TAIL
OF WAVE SHEARS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING PUSH WILL ACT ON SOUTHWARD PRESSING STRATUS FIELD...WHICH
COULD YIELD A BRIEF BIT OF PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE AFTERNOON. DRYING
PUSH BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER ALONG WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND 02Z...SPREADING TO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY BY 05-07Z. VERY DRY AIRMASS ALONG WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
GREATEST TOWARDS THE JAMES VALLEY WILL LEAD TO COLDEST LOWS IN THE
TEENS...WHILE MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S PREVAIL TO THE EAST WHERE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD HARD
FREEZE EXPECTED.

SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH MIXING
KEEPING WINDS A BIT FRESH THROUGH THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING.  THERMAL ADVECTIONS REMAIN FAIRLY NEUTRAL THROUGH THE
WEST...SO SHOULD GET DECENT SHALLOW MIXING EVEN VICINITY OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. LIKELY WILL GET AT LEAST SOME THIN CIRRUS SPREADING IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ONLY BE A MINOR HINDRANCE TO
WARMING. UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S LIKELY...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WITH
AN INCREASING GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WINDS WILL PICK UP...MOST
NOTABLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 29. WITH INCREASED MIXING...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT TANK AS MUCH OVER THAT AREA...AND WILL STEADY OUT OR RISE
DURING THE NIGHT WITH LOWEST READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. TO
THE EAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE LESS AND THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S IN LOCALES ALONG
AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER AND WINDIER DAY IN A TIGHT GRADIENT
AND WINDS RUNNING AROUND 40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS HIGHS WILL TOP OUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY...RUNNING FROM THE MID 40S EAST TO
LOWER 50S WEST.

EVEN BETTER WARMING WILL BE REALIZED ON SUNDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS
CLOSING IN ON 15 C THROUGH THE WESTERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHICH
WILL MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ZONES...THEN TRENDING DOWNWARD TO THE MID 50S THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA. STILL LOOKING LIKE AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN OUR
SOUTH AND EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE WESTERN
U.S. IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...KEEPING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION OUT
OF OUR AREA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL ERODE FROM THE NORTH AS DRY AIR PUNCHES
SOUTHWARD. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE ABOUT 8Z...LIKELY
CLOSER TO 4Z NEAR HON AND 7Z NEAR SUX. A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE 6Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KUNR 302314
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
514 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH SURFACE HIGH
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOW STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF ND AND
NORTHERN/EASTERN SD. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ABOUT 10-15 KTS...AND
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S FARTHER
SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND EASTERLY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AS
WELL...DEVELOPING INTO FOG AS THEY APPROACH HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOG
IS EXPECTED FORM AROUND THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS EVENING AND
EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD OVERNIGHT...WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN HILLS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO THE LOWER
30S IN PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

FOG WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE
EAST ON FRIDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE
STRONGEST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF SD...REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND NOON. AREAS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT DECIDED TO ADD THEM
TO THE WIND ADVISORY. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL SD...TO THE UPPER 50S IN PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

ANYONE PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING WILL HAVE DRY
AND BREEZY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL SD...TO THE MID 50S IN NORTHEASTERN WY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE. MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY...WITH WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SECONDARY LOW
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA. WITH SPLITTING UPPER
FLOW...MAIN FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWEST AND DEVELOP THIS EVENING...REACHING THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS CREATING IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND
THE BLACK HILLS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KFSD 302028
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
328 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FURTHER CHANGES UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG COLD ADVECTION/STRATUS SOON TO COVER EVEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA AS STRONG WAVE DIGS TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND TAIL
OF WAVE SHEARS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING PUSH WILL ACT ON SOUTHWARD PRESSING STRATUS FIELD...WHICH
COULD YIELD A BRIEF BIT OF PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE AFTERNOON. DRYING
PUSH BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER ALONG WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND 02Z...SPREADING TO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY BY 05-07Z. VERY DRY AIRMASS ALONG WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
GREATEST TOWARDS THE JAMES VALLEY WILL LEAD TO COLDEST LOWS IN THE
TEENS...WHILE MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S PREVAIL TO THE EAST WHERE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD HARD
FREEZE EXPECTED.

SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH MIXING
KEEPING WINDS A BIT FRESH THROUGH THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING.  THERMAL ADVECTIONS REMAIN FAIRLY NEUTRAL THROUGH THE
WEST...SO SHOULD GET DECENT SHALLOW MIXING EVEN VICINITY OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. LIKELY WILL GET AT LEAST SOME THIN CIRRUS SPREADING IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ONLY BE A MINOR HINDRANCE TO
WARMING. UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S LIKELY...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WITH
AN INCREASING GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WINDS WILL PICK UP...MOST
NOTABLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 29. WITH INCREASED MIXING...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT TANK AS MUCH OVER THAT AREA...AND WILL STEADY OUT OR RISE
DURING THE NIGHT WITH LOWEST READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. TO
THE EAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE LESS AND THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S IN LOCALES ALONG
AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER AND WINDIER DAY IN A TIGHT GRADIENT
AND WINDS RUNNING AROUND 40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS HIGHS WILL TOP OUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY...RUNNING FROM THE MID 40S EAST TO
LOWER 50S WEST.

EVEN BETTER WARMING WILL BE REALIZED ON SUNDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS
CLOSING IN ON 15 C THROUGH THE WESTERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHICH
WILL MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ZONES...THEN TRENDING DOWNWARD TO THE MID 50S THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA. STILL LOOKING LIKE AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN OUR
SOUTH AND EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE WESTERN
U.S. IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...KEEPING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION OUT
OF OUR AREA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING THROUGH THE REGION IN STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF EXIT OF THESE
LOWER CLOUDS AS MODELS ONCE AGAIN SEEM TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...BUT OVERALL STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS AND DRYING BELOW AND ABOVE CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD LEAD TO A RAPID DEMISE IN SKYCOVER BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KUNR 302023
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
223 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH SURFACE HIGH
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOW STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF ND AND
NORTHERN/EASTERN SD. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ABOUT 10-15 KTS...AND
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S FARTHER
SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND EASTERLY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AS
WELL...DEVELOPING INTO FOG AS THEY APPROACH HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOG
IS EXPECTED FORM AROUND THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS EVENING AND
EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD OVERNIGHT...WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN HILLS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO THE LOWER
30S IN PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

FOG WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE
EAST ON FRIDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE
STRONGEST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF SD...REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND NOON. AREAS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT DECIDED TO ADD THEM
TO THE WIND ADVISORY. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL SD...TO THE UPPER 50S IN PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

ANYONE PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING WILL HAVE DRY
AND BREEZY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL SD...TO THE MID 50S IN NORTHEASTERN WY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE. MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY...WITH WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SECONDARY LOW
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA. WITH SPLITTING UPPER
FLOW...MAIN FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBY AROUND THE
BLACK HILLS. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KABR 302017
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
317 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. THERE IS STILL A SWATH OF STRATUS WORKING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER. AND THIS STRATUS COULD
HAVE HUGE IMPACTS ON LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. THE STRATUS IS ERODING
NICELY ON THE FRONT AND BACK EDGES AND IS MOVING SOUTHWARD PRETTY
QUICKLY. PLUS WITH THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR MOVING SOUTH /MODEL 850
MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ON THE ORDER OR 40 TO 50
DEGREES/ IT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA. THIS SHOULD BE AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET
UP...AND LOW TWENTIES AND TEENS ARE FORECAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS ALL FALLS UNDER THE DISCLAIMER THAT SKIES CLEAR HOWEVER.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AS WELL.
ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS OUR CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA COULD COME CLOSE.
ALTERNATIVELY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST AND TIGHTENS
FURTHER ON SATURDAY /A DIFFERENCE OF AROUND 20 MB ACROSS THE
STATE/. SO A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE CWA ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS AND DEAD FUELS
ACROSS THE REGION...THIS MAY BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. INITIALLY...FLOW IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING ALOFT...WITH AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THUS...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85 TEMPERATURES +1 TO +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
60S...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA STRUGGLES WITH A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TILL THE NEXT WAVE DEVELOPS AROUND MID WEEK.

BEST FORCING WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES ENDS UP NORTH AND SOUTH OF
THE CWA...SO FOR THE MOST PART THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE A DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A NOTED GAP MOVING OVER THE CWA NOW. THE BRIEF
REPRIEVE WILL BE MARKED BY A COMBINATION OF SCT/BKN MVFR
CLOUDS...BEFORE OVC CIGS RETURN. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
BRING IN VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 301800
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
100 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

RELATIVELY COOL PATTERN SETTING UP IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT.  MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST YIELDING CLEARING SKIES
TEMPORARILY THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT.
WITH 925 HPA TEMPS FALLING 3-5 C THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...HAVE BEEN CONSERVATIVE WITH FORECAST HIGHS...EXCEPT FOR
NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE FRONT MAY TAKE LONGER TO GET TO. WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...HAVE RAISE WINDS OVER GUIDANCE BUT
STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WITH LARGE AREA OF STRATUS TO THE NORTH...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND GRADUALLY SHIFT STRATUS
SOUTHWARD.  WITH 925 HPA TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST COOL WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE
TONIGHT.  HAVE SIDED WITH COOLER LOWS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH BUILDING IN...BUT WASN/T AS CONFIDENT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
LINGERING CLOUD AND WIND CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

NOT A LOT OF CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LONGER TERM. SYNOPTICALLY THE
UPPER AIR FLOW EXHIBITS A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. WITH STRONG AND
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SQUARELY PLANTED OVER OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY MIXING
ONLY INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. BUT THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF
WIND TO CONTEND WITH.

THE WIND ISSUES BEGIN IN OUR WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
BECAUSE OF THE RETURN FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS ARE A CHALLENGE.
WITH LIGHT WINDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT...DROPPED THE LOWS BELOW
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS WINDOM AND WORTHINGTON
MN...AS WELL AS SPENCER IA. CONVERSELY...THE WESTERN ZONES SHOULD
HAVE LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. BUT MANY AREAS WILL HAVE STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AFTER EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I 29.

ON SATURDAY...THE RELATIVELY LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 60. BUT ELSEWHERE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH THE STRONG
INFLUENCE OF THE COLD HIGH JUST OFF TO OUR EAST...AS MID 40S EAST
TO LOWER 50S WEST ARE EXPECTED. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE HOWEVER...
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...WHICH
WILL GIVE A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX FOR ALL AREAS
EXCEPT ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 60. THAT LOCATION SHOULD STAY IN
THE HIGH CATEGORY DUE TO A BIT LESS WIND.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING LOWS FAIRLY
MILD. THEN EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AGAIN ON SUNDAY EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT THE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER THAN THEY ARE ON SATURDAY HELPING TO MUTE THE FIRE DANGER.
THE WESTERN ZONES WILL HAVE LESS WIND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SUNDAYS CONSENSUS HIGHS STILL LOOK A LITTLE
COOL GIVEN THE 900MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO
BLEND THE WARMER ECMWF VALUES INTO THE MIX TO GIVE MID 50S
EAST...TO MID 60S WEST.

BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MARKED SPLIT FLOW IN
THE UPPER PATTERN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM TAKES OVER OUR AREA AND THUS
MEASURABLE RAINFALL CHANCES DO NOT LOOK OVERLY GREAT AT THIS
TIME. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE WAVE ON MONDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR FROM NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING THROUGH THE REGION IN STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF EXIT OF THESE
LOWER CLOUDS AS MODELS ONCE AGAIN SEEM TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...BUT OVERALL STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS AND DRYING BELOW AND ABOVE CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD LEAD TO A RAPID DEMISE IN SKYCOVER BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KABR 301733 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1233 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE WERE TO ADJUST SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR STRATUS SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS CLOUD COVER REMAINS THE MAJOR PLAYER IN
TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS WELL. STILL THINKING WE WILL SEE
SOME CLEARING AS THE DRY AIR PUSHES IN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NECESSARY.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL INVADE THE REGION LATER
TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE SINKING
SOUTHWARD CAUSING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXPANSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THE GFS IS RATHER OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS
CLOUD DECK DISSIPATING IN TIME. WILL RUN WITH THE SREF/NAM WHICH
SHOWS THE CLOUDS HOLDING TOGETHER AND REACHING THE ND/SD BORDER
BETWEEN 14-16Z.

THE CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BY
12Z FRIDAY DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...AND 925 MB
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...LOW TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP LATE
IN THE DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH 925 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH SOME ON SATURDAY WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SUB ADVISORY WINDS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE
STILL SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLEND FOR NOW WHICH BRINGS POPS
ACROSS THE EAST ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ACROSS
THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY THE REGION WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE TO AT
OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER.




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A NOTED GAP MOVING OVER THE CWA NOW. THE BRIEF
REPRIEVE WILL BE MARKED BY A COMBINATION OF SCT/BKN MVFR
CLOUDS...BEFORE OVC CIGS RETURN. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
BRING IN VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 301733 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1233 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE WERE TO ADJUST SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR STRATUS SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS CLOUD COVER REMAINS THE MAJOR PLAYER IN
TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS WELL. STILL THINKING WE WILL SEE
SOME CLEARING AS THE DRY AIR PUSHES IN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NECESSARY.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL INVADE THE REGION LATER
TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE SINKING
SOUTHWARD CAUSING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXPANSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THE GFS IS RATHER OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS
CLOUD DECK DISSIPATING IN TIME. WILL RUN WITH THE SREF/NAM WHICH
SHOWS THE CLOUDS HOLDING TOGETHER AND REACHING THE ND/SD BORDER
BETWEEN 14-16Z.

THE CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BY
12Z FRIDAY DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...AND 925 MB
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...LOW TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP LATE
IN THE DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH 925 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH SOME ON SATURDAY WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SUB ADVISORY WINDS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE
STILL SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLEND FOR NOW WHICH BRINGS POPS
ACROSS THE EAST ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ACROSS
THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY THE REGION WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE TO AT
OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER.




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A NOTED GAP MOVING OVER THE CWA NOW. THE BRIEF
REPRIEVE WILL BE MARKED BY A COMBINATION OF SCT/BKN MVFR
CLOUDS...BEFORE OVC CIGS RETURN. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
BRING IN VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 301648
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1048 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER RIDGING IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS CROSSING WCNTRL CANADA AND QUICKLY PUSHING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS BEHIND A STRONG CANADIAN WAVE HEADING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE N/NE. STRATUS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLER AIR NOW OVER ERN MT/WRN ND WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW SD PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/STRATUS COULD MAKE TODAYS ACTUAL TEMPS A BIT TRICKY...BUT
FOR NOW AM GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER NW SD...AND
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN WINDS
BECOME MORE NERLY...AND NAM/SREF SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH BRINGING
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA...EXCEPT THE BLKHLS. AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...VERY STRONG
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FRIDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN UNUSUALLY BREEZY WINDS FROM THE S/SE. WINDS MAY EVEN REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOW STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 40S OVER CNTRL SD TO 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER
NE WY. WINDS WILL BEGIN DECREASING IN TIME FOR TRICK OR
TREATING...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY FRI EVNG.


&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF TO EAST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA...SO
ONLY EXPECTING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. COOLER AND DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD
IFR CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBY AROUND THE BLACK HILLS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...77







000
FXUS63 KUNR 301648
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1048 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER RIDGING IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS CROSSING WCNTRL CANADA AND QUICKLY PUSHING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS BEHIND A STRONG CANADIAN WAVE HEADING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE N/NE. STRATUS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLER AIR NOW OVER ERN MT/WRN ND WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW SD PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/STRATUS COULD MAKE TODAYS ACTUAL TEMPS A BIT TRICKY...BUT
FOR NOW AM GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER NW SD...AND
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN WINDS
BECOME MORE NERLY...AND NAM/SREF SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH BRINGING
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA...EXCEPT THE BLKHLS. AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...VERY STRONG
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FRIDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN UNUSUALLY BREEZY WINDS FROM THE S/SE. WINDS MAY EVEN REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOW STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 40S OVER CNTRL SD TO 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER
NE WY. WINDS WILL BEGIN DECREASING IN TIME FOR TRICK OR
TREATING...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY FRI EVNG.


&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF TO EAST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA...SO
ONLY EXPECTING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. COOLER AND DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD
IFR CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBY AROUND THE BLACK HILLS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...77







000
FXUS63 KABR 301549 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1049 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE WERE TO ADJUST SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR STRATUS SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS CLOUD COVER REMAINS THE MAJOR PLAYER IN
TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS WELL. STILL THINKING WE WILL SEE
SOME CLEARING AS THE DRY AIR PUSHES IN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NECESSARY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL INVADE THE REGION LATER
TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE SINKING
SOUTHWARD CAUSING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXPANSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THE GFS IS RATHER OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS
CLOUD DECK DISSIPATING IN TIME. WILL RUN WITH THE SREF/NAM WHICH
SHOWS THE CLOUDS HOLDING TOGETHER AND REACHING THE ND/SD BORDER
BETWEEN 14-16Z.

THE CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BY
12Z FRIDAY DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...AND 925 MB
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...LOW TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP LATE
IN THE DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH 925 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH SOME ON SATURDAY WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SUB ADVISORY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
A WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE
STILL SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLEND FOR NOW WHICH BRINGS POPS
ACROSS THE EAST ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ACROSS THE
AREA. AFTER MONDAY THE REGION WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE TO AT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 12Z WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CWA DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. VSBYS WILL BE VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY
TO 15 TO 25 KTS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 301138 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
638 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL INVADE THE REGION LATER
TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE SINKING
SOUTHWARD CAUSING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXPANSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THE GFS IS RATHER OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS
CLOUD DECK DISSIPATING IN TIME. WILL RUN WITH THE SREF/NAM WHICH
SHOWS THE CLOUDS HOLDING TOGETHER AND REACHING THE ND/SD BORDER
BETWEEN 14-16Z.

THE CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BY
12Z FRIDAY DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...AND 925 MB
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...LOW TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP LATE
IN THE DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH 925 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH SOME ON SATURDAY WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SUB ADVISORY WINDS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE
STILL SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLEND FOR NOW WHICH BRINGS POPS
ACROSS THE EAST ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ACROSS
THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY THE REGION WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE TO AT
OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER.




&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 12Z WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CWA DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. VSBYS WILL BE VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY
TO 15 TO 25 KTS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KFSD 301135
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
635 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

RELATIVELY COOL PATTERN SETTING UP IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT.  MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST YIELDING CLEARING SKIES
TEMPORARILY THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT.
WITH 925 HPA TEMPS FALLING 3-5 C THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...HAVE BEEN CONSERVATIVE WITH FORECAST HIGHS...EXCEPT FOR
NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE FRONT MAY TAKE LONGER TO GET TO. WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...HAVE RAISE WINDS OVER GUIDANCE BUT
STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WITH LARGE AREA OF STRATUS TO THE NORTH...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND GRADUALLY SHIFT STRATUS
SOUTHWARD.  WITH 925 HPA TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST COOL WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE
TONIGHT.  HAVE SIDED WITH COOLER LOWS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH BUILDING IN...BUT WASN/T AS CONFIDENT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
LINGERING CLOUD AND WIND CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

NOT A LOT OF CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LONGER TERM. SYNOPTICALLY THE
UPPER AIR FLOW EXHIBITS A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. WITH STRONG AND
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SQUARELY PLANTED OVER OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY MIXING
ONLY INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. BUT THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF
WIND TO CONTEND WITH.

THE WIND ISSUES BEGIN IN OUR WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
BECAUSE OF THE RETURN FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS ARE A CHALLENGE.
WITH LIGHT WINDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT...DROPPED THE LOWS BELOW
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS WINDOM AND WORTHINGTON
MN...AS WELL AS SPENCER IA. CONVERSELY...THE WESTERN ZONES SHOULD
HAVE LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. BUT MANY AREAS WILL HAVE STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AFTER EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I 29.

ON SATURDAY...THE RELATIVELY LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 60. BUT ELSEWHERE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH THE STRONG
INFLUENCE OF THE COLD HIGH JUST OFF TO OUR EAST...AS MID 40S EAST
TO LOWER 50S WEST ARE EXPECTED. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE HOWEVER...
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...WHICH
WILL GIVE A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX FOR ALL AREAS
EXCEPT ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 60. THAT LOCATION SHOULD STAY IN
THE HIGH CATEGORY DUE TO A BIT LESS WIND.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING LOWS FAIRLY
MILD. THEN EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AGAIN ON SUNDAY EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT THE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER THAN THEY ARE ON SATURDAY HELPING TO MUTE THE FIRE DANGER.
THE WESTERN ZONES WILL HAVE LESS WIND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SUNDAYS CONSENSUS HIGHS STILL LOOK A LITTLE
COOL GIVEN THE 900MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO
BLEND THE WARMER ECMWF VALUES INTO THE MIX TO GIVE MID 50S
EAST...TO MID 60S WEST.

BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MARKED SPLIT FLOW IN
THE UPPER PATTERN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM TAKES OVER OUR AREA AND THUS
MEASURABLE RAINFALL CHANCES DO NOT LOOK OVERLY GREAT AT THIS
TIME. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE WAVE ON MONDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR FROM NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING BEHING THE FRONT. THE LOW LYING STRATUS WILL RAISE TO
LOW END VFR THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER
00Z/31ST LEADING TO CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH THE
CLEARING...GUSTS WILL DECREASE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KUNR 300938
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
338 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER RIDGING IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS CROSSING WCNTRL CANADA AND QUICKLY PUSHING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS BEHIND A STRONG CANADIAN WAVE HEADING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE N/NE. STRATUS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLER AIR NOW OVER ERN MT/WRN ND WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW SD PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/STRATUS COULD MAKE TODAYS ACTUAL TEMPS A BIT TRICKY...BUT
FOR NOW AM GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER NW SD...AND
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN WINDS
BECOME MORE NERLY...AND NAM/SREF SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH BRINGING
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA...EXCEPT THE BLKHLS. AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...VERY STRONG
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FRIDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN UNUSUALLY BREEZY WINDS FROM THE S/SE. WINDS MAY EVEN REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOW STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 40S OVER CNTRL SD TO 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER
NE WY. WINDS WILL BEGIN DECREASING IN TIME FOR TRICK OR
TREATING...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY FRI EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF TO EAST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA...SO
ONLY EXPECTING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. COOLER AND DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND
18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KABR 300906
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
406 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL INVADE THE REGION LATER
TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE SINKING
SOUTHWARD CAUSING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXPANSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THE GFS IS RATHER OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS
CLOUD DECK DISSIPATING IN TIME. WILL RUN WITH THE SREF/NAM WHICH
SHOWS THE CLOUDS HOLDING TOGETHER AND REACHING THE ND/SD BORDER
BETWEEN 14-16Z.

THE CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BY
12Z FRIDAY DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...AND 925 MB
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...LOW TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP LATE
IN THE DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH 925 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH SOME ON SATURDAY WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SUB ADVISORY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE
STILL SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLEND FOR NOW WHICH BRINGS POPS
ACROSS THE EAST ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ACROSS
THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY THE REGION WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE TO AT
OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...LIKELY EXITING THE CWA
BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z. CIGS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AS OF 06Z LOOKS
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...AND MAY AFFECT THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. VSBYS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 300840
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
340 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

RELATIVELY COOL PATTERN SETTING UP IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT.  MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST YIELDING CLEARING SKIES
TEMPORARILY THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT.
WITH 925 HPA TEMPS FALLING 3-5 C THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...HAVE BEEN CONSERVATIVE WITH FORECAST HIGHS...EXCEPT FOR
NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE FRONT MAY TAKE LONGER TO GET TO. WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...HAVE RAISE WINDS OVER GUIDANCE BUT
STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WITH LARGE AREA OF STRATUS TO THE NORTH...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND GRADUALLY SHIFT STRATUS
SOUTHWARD.  WITH 925 HPA TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST COOL WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE
TONIGHT.  HAVE SIDED WITH COOLER LOWS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH BUILDING IN...BUT WASN/T AS CONFIDENT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
LINGERING CLOUD AND WIND CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

NOT A LOT OF CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LONGER TERM. SYNOPTICALLY THE
UPPER AIR FLOW EXHIBITS A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. WITH STRONG AND
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SQUARELY PLANTED OVER OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY MIXING
ONLY INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. BUT THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF
WIND TO CONTEND WITH.

THE WIND ISSUES BEGIN IN OUR WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
BECAUSE OF THE RETURN FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS ARE A CHALLENGE.
WITH LIGHT WINDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT...DROPPED THE LOWS BELOW
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS WINDOM AND WORTHINGTON
MN...AS WELL AS SPENCER IA. CONVERSELY...THE WESTERN ZONES SHOULD
HAVE LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. BUT MANY AREAS WILL HAVE STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AFTER EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I 29.

ON SATURDAY...THE RELATIVELY LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 60. BUT ELSEWHERE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH THE STRONG
INFLUENCE OF THE COLD HIGH JUST OFF TO OUR EAST...AS MID 40S EAST
TO LOWER 50S WEST ARE EXPECTED. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE HOWEVER...
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...WHICH
WILL GIVE A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX FOR ALL AREAS
EXCEPT ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 60. THAT LOCATION SHOULD STAY IN
THE HIGH CATEGORY DUE TO A BIT LESS WIND.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING LOWS FAIRLY
MILD. THEN EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AGAIN ON SUNDAY EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT THE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER THAN THEY ARE ON SATURDAY HELPING TO MUTE THE FIRE DANGER.
THE WESTERN ZONES WILL HAVE LESS WIND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SUNDAYS CONSENSUS HIGHS STILL LOOK A LITTLE
COOL GIVEN THE 900MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO
BLEND THE WARMER ECMWF VALUES INTO THE MIX TO GIVE MID 50S
EAST...TO MID 60S WEST.

BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MARKED SPLIT FLOW IN
THE UPPER PATTERN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM TAKES OVER OUR AREA AND THUS
MEASURABLE RAINFALL CHANCES DO NOT LOOK OVERLY GREAT AT THIS
TIME. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE WAVE ON MONDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR FROM NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR THROUGH 30/16Z. ISOLATED -SHRA BASED ABOVE 5K FEET THROUGH
09Z. FROM 30/16Z TO 31/02Z FREQUENT CEILINGS AROUND 3K FEET AND
SURFACE GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE NW OR N. WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST... EXCEPT CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR
SOUTHWEST OF A 9V9 TO PKS LINE. FROM 3102Z TO 31/06Z VFR.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KABR 300524 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO A QUICK MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SO FAR NO OBS IN THIS CWA /OR NEAR THIS CWA/ ARE
REPORTING ANY RAIN...BUT PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES ARE OCCURRING.
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO SKIRT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING DOES APPEAR TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT.

COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER...AND USED THE
CONSMOS GUIDANCE IN FRIDAY MORNINGS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY
LIKELY BE ON THE WARM SIDE.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WINDS QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS
THE HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE
UPPER 30S OR 40S.



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...BUT THEN DIVERGE SOMEWHAT BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALL START OFF WITH DECENT MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SOME ENERGY
EJECTS OUT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND HAS
MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW LOOK TO IT VS THE FASTER MORE CONSOLIDATED
GFS. THE MAIN AFFECT THIS HAS ON THE FORECAST IS TO SLOW UP THE
FROPA AND COLD AIR INTRUSION A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
IT NOW APPEARS THAT ANY LIGHT PCPN DURING THAT TIME PERIOD WILL BE
MOSTLY RAIN BASED OFF THICKNESS PROGS AND LL TEMPERATURES. THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY. TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD FAVOR
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BASED OFF LATEST LL TEMPERATURE
PROGS AND MOS DATA.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...LIKELY EXITING THE CWA
BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z. CIGS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AS OF 06Z LOOKS
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...AND MAY AFFECT THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. VSBYS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KUNR 300524
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1124 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

AN UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN MT/WY...CREATING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY AND
WESTERN SD. AXIS OF SURFACE TROUGH SITS OVER WESTERN SD. A MINI
BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH THE RAPID CITY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CREATED SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH HAVE SINCE
DECREASED. TEMPS ARE WARMING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

WAVE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL END EARLY. BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN SLIDING THROUGH THE CWA...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE
SD PLAINS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...AS GUIDANCE HAS
A 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE THE FRONT WILL
BE MOST EFFECTIVE. MODELS HAVE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY...SO TRENDED COOLER WITH THE HIGHS ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL SD. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN
THIS AREA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD. ALSO COOLED LOWS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...RESULTING
IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND LEE TROF ADVANCING FROM EAST OF THE ROCKIES...CREATING STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF PUSHING INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF OUR CWA...SO ONLY EXPECTING
SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. COOLER AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ONCE THE TROF PASSES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE ONTO THE SD PLAINS LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. AN AREA OF IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST SD
AND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE ST MAY APPROACH THE
KRAP TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...HELGESON







000
FXUS63 KFSD 300333
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1033 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...A
120 KNOT JET STREAK DIVING FROM THE PACIFIC NW TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. RESULT IS STRONG BUT GRADUALLY SHEARING DYNAMICS
FOR LIFT SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...MOST CONCENTRATED THROUGH THE
NORTH...BUT THE OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE QUITE LACKING.
CURRENTLY A MASS OF SHOWERS PRESSING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST WITHIN AREA OF
FORCING. THIS AREA OF LIFT WILL FIND BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
EVOLVING BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SD INTO SW
MN...WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
COULD END UP AS VIRGA OR SPRINKLES AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE
INCREASINGLY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...BUT STILL WARRANTS A LOW
COVERAGE POP...HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST.

ALONG WITH THE WAVE...A WIND SHIFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF
PASSAGE INTO THE WARMER SECTOR OF SYSTEM...SOON FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHEASTWARD CRASHING OF COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME A QUITE BLUSTERY 20 TO 30 MPH...AS LOW CLOUDS
INCREASE WITHIN STRONG COLD ADVECTION ZONE.  QUITE LIKELY THAT TEMPS
WILL TAKE A SIDESTEP MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON...AND EVEN A FEW
DEGREES DROP WITH STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS.
NO DOUBT A BLUSTERY DAY THAT WILL REMIND MANY OF TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BEING LOCATED THROUGH OUR WESTERN AREAS
BY 12Z ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING LEANED
TOWARD THE COLDEST GUIDANCE WITH LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 20 OVER
THAT AREA. TO THE EAST...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT
THAT WINDS WILL NOT DROP OFF AS MUCH...SO WENT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 20S.

CHILLY AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY WITH 850
MB READINGS AVERAGING IN THE RANGE OF -2 TO 3 C IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN CHECK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS PICKING UP IN OUR WEST ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL STEADY OUT OR RISE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THAT AREA. EARLY LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
CHILLY IN OUR EAST WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE...AND WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND WINDS AROUND 40 KTS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY. IN A WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME...IT WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD...SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF
THE NEXT FEW. STILL BREEZY WITH HIGHS 50S TO NEAR 60. BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD FROM
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES IN OUR EAST FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO
REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR THROUGH 30/16Z. ISOLATED -SHRA BASED ABOVE 5K FEET THROUGH
09Z. FROM 30/16Z TO 31/02Z FREQUENT CEILINGS AROUND 3K FEET AND
SURFACE GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE NW OR N. WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST... EXCEPT CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR
SOUTHWEST OF A 9V9 TO PKS LINE. FROM 3102Z TO 31/06Z VFR.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KABR 300224 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
924 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. LOOKS AS
THOUGH THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO FIT THE CURRENT
SITUATION. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO A QUICK MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SO FAR NO OBS IN THIS CWA /OR NEAR THIS CWA/ ARE
REPORTING ANY RAIN...BUT PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES ARE OCCURRING.
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO SKIRT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING DOES APPEAR TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT.

COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER...AND USED THE
CONSMOS GUIDANCE IN FRIDAY MORNINGS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY
LIKELY BE ON THE WARM SIDE.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WINDS QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS
THE HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE
UPPER 30S OR 40S.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...BUT THEN DIVERGE SOMEWHAT BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALL START OFF WITH DECENT MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SOME ENERGY
EJECTS OUT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND HAS
MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW LOOK TO IT VS THE FASTER MORE CONSOLIDATED
GFS. THE MAIN AFFECT THIS HAS ON THE FORECAST IS TO SLOW UP THE
FROPA AND COLD AIR INTRUSION A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
IT NOW APPEARS THAT ANY LIGHT PCPN DURING THAT TIME PERIOD WILL BE
MOSTLY RAIN BASED OFF THICKNESS PROGS AND LL TEMPERATURES. THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY. TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD FAVOR
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BASED OFF LATEST LL TEMPERATURE
PROGS AND MOS DATA.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...LIKELY EXITING
THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AS
OF 00Z LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...AND MAY AFFECT THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. VSBYS
WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 292352
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
552 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

AN UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN MT/WY...CREATING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY AND
WESTERN SD. AXIS OF SURFACE TROUGH SITS OVER WESTERN SD. A MINI
BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH THE RAPID CITY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CREATED SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH HAVE SINCE
DECREASED. TEMPS ARE WARMING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

WAVE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL END EARLY. BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN SLIDING THROUGH THE CWA...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE
SD PLAINS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...AS GUIDANCE HAS
A 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE THE FRONT WILL
BE MOST EFFECTIVE. MODELS HAVE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY...SO TRENDED COOLER WITH THE HIGHS ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL SD. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN
THIS AREA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD. ALSO COOLED LOWS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...RESULTING
IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND LEE TROF ADVANCING FROM EAST OF THE ROCKIES...CREATING STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF PUSHING INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF OUR CWA...SO ONLY EXPECTING
SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. COOLER AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ONCE THE TROF PASSES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE ONTO THE SD PLAINS LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTHWEST SD. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITINOS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KFSD 292330
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...A
120 KNOT JET STREAK DIVING FROM THE PACIFIC NW TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. RESULT IS STRONG BUT GRADUALLY SHEARING DYNAMICS
FOR LIFT SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...MOST CONCENTRATED THROUGH THE
NORTH...BUT THE OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE QUITE LACKING.
CURRENTLY A MASS OF SHOWERS PRESSING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST WITHIN AREA OF
FORCING. THIS AREA OF LIFT WILL FIND BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
EVOLVING BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SD INTO SW
MN...WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
COULD END UP AS VIRGA OR SPRINKLES AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE
INCREASINGLY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...BUT STILL WARRANTS A LOW
COVERAGE POP...HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST.

ALONG WITH THE WAVE...A WIND SHIFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF
PASSAGE INTO THE WARMER SECTOR OF SYSTEM...SOON FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHEASTWARD CRASHING OF COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME A QUITE BLUSTERY 20 TO 30 MPH...AS LOW CLOUDS
INCREASE WITHIN STRONG COLD ADVECTION ZONE.  QUITE LIKELY THAT TEMPS
WILL TAKE A SIDESTEP MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON...AND EVEN A FEW
DEGREES DROP WITH STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS.
NO DOUBT A BLUSTERY DAY THAT WILL REMIND MANY OF TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BEING LOCATED THROUGH OUR WESTERN AREAS
BY 12Z ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING LEANED
TOWARD THE COLDEST GUIDANCE WITH LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 20 OVER
THAT AREA. TO THE EAST...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT
THAT WINDS WILL NOT DROP OFF AS MUCH...SO WENT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 20S.

CHILLY AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY WITH 850
MB READINGS AVERAGING IN THE RANGE OF -2 TO 3 C IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN CHECK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS PICKING UP IN OUR WEST ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL STEADY OUT OR RISE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THAT AREA. EARLY LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
CHILLY IN OUR EAST WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE...AND WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND WINDS AROUND 40 KTS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY. IN A WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME...IT WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD...SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF
THE NEXT FEW. STILL BREEZY WITH HIGHS 50S TO NEAR 60. BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD FROM
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES IN OUR EAST FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO
REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR THROUGH 30/15Z WITH ISOLATED -SHRA BASED ABOVE 5K FEET. FROM
15Z TO 31/00Z CEILINGS 2-3K FEET AND SURFACE GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
FROM THE NW OR N WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...
EXCEPT CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR SOUTHWEST OF A 9V9 TO PKS LINE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KABR 292327 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO A QUICK MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SO FAR NO OBS IN THIS CWA /OR NEAR THIS CWA/ ARE
REPORTING ANY RAIN...BUT PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES ARE OCCURRING.
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO SKIRT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING DOES APPEAR TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT.

COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER...AND USED THE
CONSMOS GUIDANCE IN FRIDAY MORNINGS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY
LIKELY BE ON THE WARM SIDE.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WINDS QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS
THE HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE
UPPER 30S OR 40S.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...BUT THEN DIVERGE SOMEWHAT BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALL START OFF WITH DECENT MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SOME ENERGY
EJECTS OUT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND HAS
MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW LOOK TO IT VS THE FASTER MORE CONSOLIDATED
GFS. THE MAIN AFFECT THIS HAS ON THE FORECAST IS TO SLOW UP THE
FROPA AND COLD AIR INTRUSION A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
IT NOW APPEARS THAT ANY LIGHT PCPN DURING THAT TIME PERIOD WILL BE
MOSTLY RAIN BASED OFF THICKNESS PROGS AND LL TEMPERATURES. THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY. TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD FAVOR
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BASED OFF LATEST LL TEMPERATURE
PROGS AND MOS DATA.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...LIKELY EXITING
THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AS
OF 00Z LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...AND MAY AFFECT THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. VSBYS
WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 292039
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
239 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

AN UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN MT/WY...CREATING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY AND
WESTERN SD. AXIS OF SURFACE TROUGH SITS OVER WESTERN SD. A MINI
BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH THE RAPID CITY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CREATED SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH HAVE SINCE
DECREASED. TEMPS ARE WARMING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

WAVE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL END EARLY. BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN SLIDING THROUGH THE CWA...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE
SD PLAINS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...AS GUIDANCE HAS
A 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE THE FRONT WILL
BE MOST EFFECTIVE. MODELS HAVE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY...SO TRENDED COOLER WITH THE HIGHS ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL SD. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN
THIS AREA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD. ALSO COOLED LOWS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...RESULTING
IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND LEE TROF ADVANCING FROM EAST OF THE ROCKIES...CREATING STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF PUSHING INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF OUR CWA...SO ONLY EXPECTING
SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. COOLER AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ONCE THE TROF PASSES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS63 KFSD 292029
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
329 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...A
120 KNOT JET STREAK DIVING FROM THE PACIFIC NW TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. RESULT IS STRONG BUT GRADUALLY SHEARING DYNAMICS
FOR LIFT SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...MOST CONCENTRATED THROUGH THE
NORTH...BUT THE OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE QUITE LACKING.
CURRENTLY A MASS OF SHOWERS PRESSING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST WITHIN AREA OF
FORCING. THIS AREA OF LIFT WILL FIND BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
EVOLVING BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SD INTO SW
MN...WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
COULD END UP AS VIRGA OR SPRINKLES AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE
INCREASINGLY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...BUT STILL WARRANTS A LOW
COVERAGE POP...HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST.

ALONG WITH THE WAVE...A WIND SHIFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF
PASSAGE INTO THE WARMER SECTOR OF SYSTEM...SOON FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHEASTWARD CRASHING OF COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME A QUITE BLUSTERY 20 TO 30 MPH...AS LOW CLOUDS
INCREASE WITHIN STRONG COLD ADVECTION ZONE.  QUITE LIKELY THAT TEMPS
WILL TAKE A SIDESTEP MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON...AND EVEN A FEW
DEGREES DROP WITH STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS.
NO DOUBT A BLUSTERY DAY THAT WILL REMIND MANY OF TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BEING LOCATED THROUGH OUR WESTERN AREAS
BY 12Z ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING LEANED
TOWARD THE COLDEST GUIDANCE WITH LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 20 OVER
THAT AREA. TO THE EAST...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT
THAT WINDS WILL NOT DROP OFF AS MUCH...SO WENT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 20S.

CHILLY AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY WITH 850
MB READINGS AVERAGING IN THE RANGE OF -2 TO 3 C IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN CHECK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS PICKING UP IN OUR WEST ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL STEADY OUT OR RISE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THAT AREA. EARLY LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
CHILLY IN OUR EAST WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE...AND WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND WINDS AROUND 40 KTS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY. IN A WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME...IT WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD...SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF
THE NEXT FEW. STILL BREEZY WITH HIGHS 50S TO NEAR 60. BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD FROM
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES IN OUR EAST FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO
REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...
BUT LOWER CLOUDS FEATURING MVFR CEILINGS WILL CYCLE SOUTHWARD
AFTER 12Z BEHIND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
DISTURBANCE WITH MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN 02Z AND 10Z. LIFT FORCING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO RESULT IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ALOFT. SINCE WILL BE OPERATIONALLY INSIGNIFICANT...HAVE NOT
MENTIONED IN THIS SET OF TAFS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KABR 292019
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
319 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO A QUICK MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SO FAR NO OBS IN THIS CWA /OR NEAR THIS CWA/ ARE
REPORTING ANY RAIN...BUT PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES ARE OCCURRING.
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO SKIRT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING DOES APPEAR TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT.

COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER...AND USED THE
CONSMOS GUIDANCE IN FRIDAY MORNINGS FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THIS MAY
LIKELY BE ON THE WARM SIDE STILL.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WINDS QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS
THE HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE
UPPER 30S OR 40S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...BUT THEN DIVERGE SOMEWHAT BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALL START OFF WITH DECENT MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SOME ENERGY
EJECTS OUT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND HAS
MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW LOOK TO IT VS THE FASTER MORE CONSOLIDATED
GFS. THE MAIN AFFECT THIS HAS ON THE FORECAST IS TO SLOW UP THE
FROPA AND COLD AIR INTRUSION A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
IT NOW APPEARS THAT ANY LIGHT PCPN DURING THAT TIME PERIOD WILL BE
MOSTLY RAIN BASED OFF THICKNESS PROGS AND LL TEMPERATURES. THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY. TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD FAVOR
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BASED OFF LATEST LL TEMPERATURE
PROGS AND MOS DATA.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL PERHAPS TOWARD MORNING AT KABR/KMBG WHERE LATEST
AVIATION MODEL DATA SUGGESTS SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY COME IN FROM THE
NORTH. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION AT KABR/KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 291744 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1244 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

FORECAST CHANGES MAINLY REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. STILL HAVE AN AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF STRATUS IS MOVING
EAST PRETTY QUICKLY...BUT HAD TO KEEP SKY COVER IN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN THE INHERITED FORECAST. ALSO...BASED OFF OF CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS...RAISED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS SEEN PRETTY DISTINCTLY ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADJUSTED TIMING OF POPS THIS EVENING TO
BETTER FIT WITH HI RES MODELS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND CLOUDS AND
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...PCPN CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...AND TEMPS/WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRATUS DECK ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING CLOSED LOW STILL LINGERING
ACROSS NERN AND ERN SD...ALTHO FEW HOLES HAVE DEVELOPED ALLOWING
TEMPS AT KABR TO FALL RATHER QUICKLY. EXPECT THESE HOLES TO FILL IN
PRIOR TO ZONE ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE MODELS INDICATE THAT WAA
RETURNING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WILL AID IN PUSHING/ERODING CLOUD
DECK...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY 18Z FOR
ALL AREAS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD OPEN 500HPA/700HPA WAVES THAT MOVE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN/EVEN. IT APPEARS THAT
BEST AREA FOR PCPN STILL REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA..AND THAT PCPN
DOESN`T MOVE INTO WRN PART OF CWA UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z...OR ABOUT 6
HOURS SLOWER THAN INHERITED WX/POP GRIDS. WITH DECENT AGREEMENT IN
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...HAVE BACKED OFF TIMING/COVERAGE FOR
PCPN UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FOR THE ERN CWA...MORE IN LINE WITH BEST
FORCING SEEN ON THE 700HPA AND 850HPA THETA-E SURFACES. SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY...DRAGGING PERHAPS FIRST ARCTIC
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA. VERY STRONG CAA PUSHES INTO CWA DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH LOWER LAYERS DRYING VERY RAPIDLY. HAVE
BOTTOMED OUT DWPTS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...AND WITH STRONG CAA
HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS INTO THE HIGH BREEZY/LOW END WINDY CATEGORY.
WITH THE COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION...HAVE DROPPED LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
AT LEAST A CATEGORY ALL PLACES...AND IF WINDS DROP OFF THURSDAY
NIGHT CUTTING OFF ANY MIXING POTENTIAL...LOWS COULD FALL EVEN
FURTHER.

FRIDAY SETTING UP TO BE A COOL AND QUIET WEATHER DAY AS 1036MB
HIGH DROPS INTO REGION...SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL MN BY 00Z
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC LOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
TANKING FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SHARP WEST TO EAST TEMP
GRADIENT DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY/SLOWLY THE SFC HIGH EXITS TO THE
EAST AND THE WINDS INCREASE. SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY BUT DRY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP SHOWERS
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ALONG WITH A SFC LOW.
HOWEVER MODELS ARE STILL QUITE DIVERGENT WITH POSITION AND
INTENSITY OF THE SFC LOW SO FOR NOW JUST STUCK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
SUPERBLEND POPS. BASED ON THE ACTIVE PATTERN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS
WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY AFTER SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT THEY MAY JUST HOVER AROUND AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL PERHAPS TOWARD MORNING AT KABR/KMBG WHERE LATEST
AVIATION MODEL DATA SUGGESTS SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY COME IN FROM THE
NORTH. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION AT KABR/KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KFSD 291738
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1238 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. STRATUS IS SLOW TO
CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING AS WE REMAIN MORE MIXED THAN MOST MODELS
SHOW. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS...AND THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSEST TO IT AND SLOWED DOWN EXIT OF CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST AND BY LATE MORNING MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. WILL
BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER.

AN UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. BEST QG FORCING DOES GO OVER OUR CWA...HOWEVER BEST
MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH. THUS THINKING WE MAINLY JUST SEE CLOUDS
AND VIRGA...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION NOT ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH
THE DRY LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER FORCING IS STRONG ENOUGH THAT CAN NOT
RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND...AND THUS EXPANDED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO INCLUDE MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
STAY IN THE 40S MOST OF THE NIGHT...HOWEVER WITH LIGHT
WINDS...READINGS IN ANY CLEAR POCKETS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. AND
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING EXPECTED LATE THINK MOST AREAS WILL
SEE LOWS IN THE 30S. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT INTERSTATE 29
BY 12Z...AND WITH INCREASED MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT...PROBABLY WILL
SEE A SLIGHT WARMING AND A BIT OF A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THURSDAY IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A HASTENING OF THE PACE OF THE NEXT
SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE RAPIDLY
DEPARTS BUT IN ITS WAKE...IS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN MN. COLD HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1035 AND 1040MB FILLS IN ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE THURSDAY LOOKS
LIKE A DAY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY...BLUSTERY...COOL...
AND WHAT COULD BE PLENTY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATUS FOR MANY
AREAS OTHER THAN POSSIBLY OUR MO RIVER VALLEY AREAS. THEREFORE
NOTCHED UP THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND FOR TEMPERATURES...THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE VALUES HAVE MARKEDLY COOLED THE HIGHS OFF. NOTICED THAT
THE AFTERNOON 900-850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT A
WHOLE LOT DIFFERENT THAN WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY. SO BLENDED THE
VERY CHILLY BIAS CORRECTED GEM GLOBAL AND BIAS CORRECTED MAV INTO
THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. THIS COOLED HIGHS OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. BUT IF THE STRATUS GETS AS INTRUSIVE AS IT
WAS ON TUESDAY...THEN EVEN THESE HIGHS ARE PROBABLY A CATEGORY
TOO WARM.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE TRICKY...IN THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL CAUSE SOME LINGERING MIXING POTENTIAL EAST OF INTERSTATE 29.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS A QUESTION OF HOW QUICKLY THE FORECAST
STRATUS WILL EXIT...AT LEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES. WOULD NOT BE AT
ALL SURPRISED IF THE STRATUS LINGERS LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...
THEREFORE DID NOT GO WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE VALUES ON THURSDAY
EXCEPT IN OUR FAR WEST. CONSENSUS VALUES LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR
OUR EASTERN ZONES...BUT HAVE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES FOR CHAMBERLAIN
AND HURON.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXHIBIT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW WITH
STRONG RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. FRIDAY WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BUT THEN A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL RETURN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH STOUT WINDS OFF THE SURFACE. WINDY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH SHOULD EASILY PREVAIL ON SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW NORMAL AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE EAST INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER FOR ANOTHER DAY. THE
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL LIKELY REACH THE VERY HIGH
CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL BE CONVEYED IN
THE FORTHCOMING HWO. FOR SUNDAY...CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOKED A
LITTLE COOL GIVEN THE ECMWF AND GFS 900MB TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I 29. THEREFORE BLENDED THE MORE MILD BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF VALUES INTO THE MIX TO BUMP THE READINGS UP A
CATEGORY OR TWO.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT IN HOW THEY HANDLE
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE ECMWF LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE GFS. BUT AT ANY RATE...DECENT RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TAKES OVER AND CUTS OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK UNEVENTFUL AND CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY BREEZY AGAIN WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...
BUT LOWER CLOUDS FEATURING MVFR CEILINGS WILL CYCLE SOUTHWARD
AFTER 12Z BEHIND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
DISTURBANCE WITH MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN 02Z AND 10Z. LIFT FORCING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO RESULT IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ALOFT. SINCE WILL BE OPERATIONALLY INSIGNIFICANT...HAVE NOT
MENTIONED IN THIS SET OF TAFS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KUNR 291723
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1123 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS CROSSING THE NRN PLAIN ATTM AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MS VALLEY WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS TODAY BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS
TO THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO
NW SD...HOWEVER WITH LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...LITTLE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A SECONDARY AND MUCH STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
NE THU MORNING BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION. HAVE
DROPPED MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE REGION IN BETWEEN SFC HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
LEE TROF ADVANCING FROM EAST OF THE ROCKIES...CREATING STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWFA. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF PUSHING INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF OUR CWFA SO ONLY EXPECTING SMALL
CHANCES FOR PCPN AT THIS TIME. COOLER AND DRY WX EXPECTED ONCE THE
TROF PASSES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS63 KABR 291558 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1058 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST CHANGES MAINLY REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. STILL HAVE AN AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF STRATUS IS MOVING EAST
PRETTY QUICKLY...BUT HAD TO KEEP SKY COVER IN A LITTLE LONGER THAN
THE INHERITED FORECAST. ALSO...BASED OFF OF CURRENT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS...RAISED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE REGION. THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS SEEN PRETTY DISTINCTLY ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. ADJUSTED TIMING OF POPS THIS EVENING TO BETTER FIT WITH
HI RES MODELS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND CLOUDS AND
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...PCPN CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...AND TEMPS/WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRATUS DECK ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING CLOSED LOW STILL LINGERING
ACROSS NERN AND ERN SD...ALTHO FEW HOLES HAVE DEVELOPED ALLOWING
TEMPS AT KABR TO FALL RATHER QUICKLY. EXPECT THESE HOLES TO FILL IN
PRIOR TO ZONE ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE MODELS INDICATE THAT WAA
RETURNING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WILL AID IN PUSHING/ERODING CLOUD
DECK...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY 18Z FOR
ALL AREAS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD OPEN 500HPA/700HPA WAVES THAT MOVE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN/EVEN. IT APPEARS THAT
BEST AREA FOR PCPN STILL REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA..AND THAT PCPN
DOESN`T MOVE INTO WRN PART OF CWA UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z...OR ABOUT 6
HOURS SLOWER THAN INHERITED WX/POP GRIDS. WITH DECENT AGREEMENT IN
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...HAVE BACKED OFF TIMING/COVERAGE FOR
PCPN UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FOR THE ERN CWA...MORE IN LINE WITH BEST
FORCING SEEN ON THE 700HPA AND 850HPA THETA-E SURFACES. SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY...DRAGGING PERHAPS FIRST ARCTIC
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA. VERY STRONG CAA PUSHES INTO CWA DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH LOWER LAYERS DRYING VERY RAPIDLY. HAVE
BOTTOMED OUT DWPTS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...AND WITH STRONG CAA
HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS INTO THE HIGH BREEZY/LOW END WINDY CATEGORY.
WITH THE COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION...HAVE DROPPED LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
AT LEAST A CATEGORY ALL PLACES...AND IF WINDS DROP OFF THURSDAY
NIGHT CUTTING OFF ANY MIXING POTENTIAL...LOWS COULD FALL EVEN
FURTHER.

FRIDAY SETTING UP TO BE A COOL AND QUIET WEATHER DAY AS 1036MB
HIGH DROPS INTO REGION...SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL MN BY 00Z
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC LOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
TANKING FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SHARP WEST TO EAST TEMP
GRADIENT DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY/SLOWLY THE SFC HIGH EXITS TO THE
EAST AND THE WINDS INCREASE. SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY BUT DRY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP SHOWERS
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ALONG WITH A SFC LOW.
HOWEVER MODELS ARE STILL QUITE DIVERGENT WITH POSITION AND
INTENSITY OF THE SFC LOW SO FOR NOW JUST STUCK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
SUPERBLEND POPS. BASED ON THE ACTIVE PATTERN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS
WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY AFTER SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT THEY MAY JUST HOVER AROUND AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR/VFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS EASTERN SD. THOUGH
THERE HAVE BEEN QUITE A FEW GAPS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW IT
FILLING IN THIS MORNING. EXPECT KABR/KATY TO BE AFFECTED WITH MVFR
CIGS THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECTING ALL CLOUDS TO EXIT BY AFTERNOON
AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CIGS
WILL FALL TO MVFR ONCE AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 291137
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
637 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. STRATUS IS SLOW TO
CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING AS WE REMAIN MORE MIXED THAN MOST MODELS
SHOW. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS...AND THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSEST TO IT AND SLOWED DOWN EXIT OF CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST AND BY LATE MORNING MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. WILL
BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER.

AN UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. BEST QG FORCING DOES GO OVER OUR CWA...HOWEVER BEST
MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH. THUS THINKING WE MAINLY JUST SEE CLOUDS
AND VIRGA...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION NOT ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH
THE DRY LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER FORCING IS STRONG ENOUGH THAT CAN NOT
RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND...AND THUS EXPANDED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO INCLUDE MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
STAY IN THE 40S MOST OF THE NIGHT...HOWEVER WITH LIGHT
WINDS...READINGS IN ANY CLEAR POCKETS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. AND
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING EXPECTED LATE THINK MOST AREAS WILL
SEE LOWS IN THE 30S. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT INTERSTATE 29
BY 12Z...AND WITH INCREASED MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT...PROBABLY WILL
SEE A SLIGHT WARMING AND A BIT OF A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THURSDAY IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A HASTENING OF THE PACE OF THE NEXT
SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE RAPIDLY
DEPARTS BUT IN ITS WAKE...IS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN MN. COLD HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1035 AND 1040MB FILLS IN ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE THURSDAY LOOKS
LIKE A DAY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY...BLUSTERY...COOL...
AND WHAT COULD BE PLENTY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATUS FOR MANY
AREAS OTHER THAN POSSIBLY OUR MO RIVER VALLEY AREAS. THEREFORE
NOTCHED UP THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND FOR TEMPERATURES...THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE VALUES HAVE MARKEDLY COOLED THE HIGHS OFF. NOTICED THAT
THE AFTERNOON 900-850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT A
WHOLE LOT DIFFERENT THAN WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY. SO BLENDED THE
VERY CHILLY BIAS CORRECTED GEM GLOBAL AND BIAS CORRECTED MAV INTO
THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. THIS COOLED HIGHS OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. BUT IF THE STRATUS GETS AS INTRUSIVE AS IT
WAS ON TUESDAY...THEN EVEN THESE HIGHS ARE PROBABLY A CATEGORY
TOO WARM.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE TRICKY...IN THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL CAUSE SOME LINGERING MIXING POTENTIAL EAST OF INTERSTATE 29.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS A QUESTION OF HOW QUICKLY THE FORECAST
STRATUS WILL EXIT...AT LEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES. WOULD NOT BE AT
ALL SURPRISED IF THE STRATUS LINGERS LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...
THEREFORE DID NOT GO WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE VALUES ON THURSDAY
EXCEPT IN OUR FAR WEST. CONSENSUS VALUES LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR
OUR EASTERN ZONES...BUT HAVE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES FOR CHAMBERLAIN
AND HURON.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXHIBIT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW WITH
STRONG RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. FRIDAY WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BUT THEN A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL RETURN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH STOUT WINDS OFF THE SURFACE. WINDY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH SHOULD EASILY PREVAIL ON SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW NORMAL AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE EAST INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER FOR ANOTHER DAY. THE
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL LIKELY REACH THE VERY HIGH
CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL BE CONVEYED IN
THE FORTHCOMING HWO. FOR SUNDAY...CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOKED A
LITTLE COOL GIVEN THE ECMWF AND GFS 900MB TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I 29. THEREFORE BLENDED THE MORE MILD BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF VALUES INTO THE MIX TO BUMP THE READINGS UP A
CATEGORY OR TWO.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT IN HOW THEY HANDLE
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE ECMWF LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE GFS. BUT AT ANY RATE...DECENT RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TAKES OVER AND CUTS OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK UNEVENTFUL AND CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY BREEZY AGAIN WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SEEING
SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA. EXPECT EVERYONE TO BECOME VFR BY LATER THIS
MORNING AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL SEE
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF LIGHT
SHOWER...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KABR 291136 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
636 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND CLOUDS AND
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...PCPN CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...AND TEMPS/WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRATUS DECK ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING CLOSED LOW STILL LINGERING
ACROSS NERN AND ERN SD...ALTHO FEW HOLES HAVE DEVELOPED ALLOWING
TEMPS AT KABR TO FALL RATHER QUICKLY. EXPECT THESE HOLES TO FILL IN
PRIOR TO ZONE ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE MODELS INDICATE THAT WAA
RETURNING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WILL AID IN PUSHING/ERODING CLOUD
DECK...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY 18Z FOR
ALL AREAS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD OPEN 500HPA/700HPA WAVES THAT MOVE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN/EVEN. IT APPEARS THAT
BEST AREA FOR PCPN STILL REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA..AND THAT PCPN
DOESN`T MOVE INTO WRN PART OF CWA UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z...OR ABOUT 6
HOURS SLOWER THAN INHERITED WX/POP GRIDS. WITH DECENT AGREEMENT IN
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...HAVE BACKED OFF TIMING/COVERAGE FOR
PCPN UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FOR THE ERN CWA...MORE IN LINE WITH BEST
FORCING SEEN ON THE 700HPA AND 850HPA THETA-E SURFACES. SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY...DRAGGING PERHAPS FIRST ARCTIC
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA. VERY STRONG CAA PUSHES INTO CWA DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH LOWER LAYERS DRYING VERY RAPIDLY. HAVE
BOTTOMED OUT DWPTS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...AND WITH STRONG CAA
HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS INTO THE HIGH BREEZY/LOW END WINDY CATEGORY.
WITH THE COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION...HAVE DROPPED LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
AT LEAST A CATEGORY ALL PLACES...AND IF WINDS DROP OFF THURSDAY
NIGHT CUTTING OFF ANY MIXING POTENTIAL...LOWS COULD FALL EVEN
FURTHER.

FRIDAY SETTING UP TO BE A COOL AND QUIET WEATHER DAY AS 1036MB
HIGH DROPS INTO REGION...SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL MN BY 00Z
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC LOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
TANKING FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SHARP WEST TO EAST TEMP
GRADIENT DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY/SLOWLY THE SFC HIGH EXITS TO THE
EAST AND THE WINDS INCREASE. SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY BUT DRY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP SHOWERS
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ALONG WITH A SFC LOW.
HOWEVER MODELS ARE STILL QUITE DIVERGENT WITH POSITION AND
INTENSITY OF THE SFC LOW SO FOR NOW JUST STUCK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
SUPERBLEND POPS. BASED ON THE ACTIVE PATTERN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS
WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY AFTER SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT THEY MAY JUST HOVER AROUND AVERAGE.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR/VFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS EASTERN SD. THOUGH
THERE HAVE BEEN QUITE A FEW GAPS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW IT
FILLING IN THIS MORNING. EXPECT KABR/KATY TO BE AFFECTED WITH MVFR
CIGS THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECTING ALL CLOUDS TO EXIT BY AFTERNOON
AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CIGS
WILL FALL TO MVFR ONCE AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KUNR 290916
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
316 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS CROSSING THE NRN PLAIN ATTM AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MS VALLEY WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS TODAY BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS
TO THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO
NW SD...HOWEVER WITH LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...LITTLE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A SECONDARY AND MUCH STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
NE THU MORNING BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION. HAVE
DROPPED MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE REGION IN BETWEEN SFC HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
LEE TROF ADVANCING FROM EAST OF THE ROCKIES...CREATING STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWFA. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF PUSHING INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF OUR CWFA SO ONLY EXPECTING SMALL
CHANCES FOR PCPN AT THIS TIME. COOLER AND DRY WX EXPECTED ONCE THE
TROF PASSES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KFSD 290839
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
339 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. STRATUS IS SLOW TO
CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING AS WE REMAIN MORE MIXED THAN MOST MODELS
SHOW. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS...AND THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSEST TO IT AND SLOWED DOWN EXIT OF CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST AND BY LATE MORNING MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. WILL
BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER.

AN UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. BEST QG FORCING DOES GO OVER OUR CWA...HOWEVER BEST
MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH. THUS THINKING WE MAINLY JUST SEE CLOUDS
AND VIRGA...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION NOT ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH
THE DRY LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER FORCING IS STRONG ENOUGH THAT CAN NOT
RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND...AND THUS EXPANDED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO INCLUDE MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
STAY IN THE 40S MOST OF THE NIGHT...HOWEVER WITH LIGHT
WINDS...READINGS IN ANY CLEAR POCKETS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. AND
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING EXPECTED LATE THINK MOST AREAS WILL
SEE LOWS IN THE 30S. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT INTERSTATE 29
BY 12Z...AND WITH INCREASED MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT...PROBABLY WILL
SEE A SLIGHT WARMING AND A BIT OF A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THURSDAY IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A HASTENING OF THE PACE OF THE NEXT
SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE RAPIDLY
DEPARTS BUT IN ITS WAKE...IS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN MN. COLD HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1035 AND 1040MB FILLS IN ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE THURSDAY LOOKS
LIKE A DAY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY...BLUSTERY...COOL...
AND WHAT COULD BE PLENTY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATUS FOR MANY
AREAS OTHER THAN POSSIBLY OUR MO RIVER VALLEY AREAS. THEREFORE
NOTCHED UP THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND FOR TEMPERATURES...THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE VALUES HAVE MARKEDLY COOLED THE HIGHS OFF. NOTICED THAT
THE AFTERNOON 900-850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT A
WHOLE LOT DIFFERENT THAN WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY. SO BLENDED THE
VERY CHILLY BIAS CORRECTED GEM GLOBAL AND BIAS CORRECTED MAV INTO
THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. THIS COOLED HIGHS OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. BUT IF THE STRATUS GETS AS INTRUSIVE AS IT
WAS ON TUESDAY...THEN EVEN THESE HIGHS ARE PROBABLY A CATEGORY
TOO WARM.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE TRICKY...IN THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL CAUSE SOME LINGERING MIXING POTENTIAL EAST OF INTERSTATE 29.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS A QUESTION OF HOW QUICKLY THE FORECAST
STRATUS WILL EXIT...AT LEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES. WOULD NOT BE AT
ALL SURPRISED IF THE STRATUS LINGERS LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...
THEREFORE DID NOT GO WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE VALUES ON THURSDAY
EXCEPT IN OUR FAR WEST. CONSENSUS VALUES LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR
OUR EASTERN ZONES...BUT HAVE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES FOR CHAMBERLAIN
AND HURON.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXHIBIT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW WITH
STRONG RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. FRIDAY WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BUT THEN A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL RETURN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH STOUT WINDS OFF THE SURFACE. WINDY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH SHOULD EASILY PREVAIL ON SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW NORMAL AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE EAST INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER FOR ANOTHER DAY. THE
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL LIKELY REACH THE VERY HIGH
CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL BE CONVEYED IN
THE FORTHCOMING HWO. FOR SUNDAY...CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOKED A
LITTLE COOL GIVEN THE ECMWF AND GFS 900MB TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I 29. THEREFORE BLENDED THE MORE MILD BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF VALUES INTO THE MIX TO BUMP THE READINGS UP A
CATEGORY OR TWO.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT IN HOW THEY HANDLE
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE ECMWF LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE GFS. BUT AT ANY RATE...DECENT RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TAKES OVER AND CUTS OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK UNEVENTFUL AND CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY BREEZY AGAIN WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 30/06Z. CEILINGS 3.5K TO 5K FEET WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 29/15Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KABR 290805
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
305 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND CLOUDS AND
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...PCPN CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...AND TEMPS/WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRATUS DECK ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING CLOSED LOW STILL LINGERING
ACROSS NERN AND ERN SD...ALTHO FEW HOLES HAVE DEVELOPED ALLOWING
TEMPS AT KABR TO FALL RATHER QUICKLY. EXPECT THESE HOLES TO FILL IN
PRIOR TO ZONE ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE MODELS INDICATE THAT WAA
RETURNING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WILL AID IN PUSHING/ERODING CLOUD
DECK...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY 18Z FOR
ALL AREAS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD OPEN 500HPA/700HPA WAVES THAT MOVE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN/EVEN. IT APPEARS THAT
BEST AREA FOR PCPN STILL REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA..AND THAT PCPN
DOESN`T MOVE INTO WRN PART OF CWA UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z...OR ABOUT 6
HOURS SLOWER THAN INHERITED WX/POP GRIDS. WITH DECENT AGREEMENT IN
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...HAVE BACKED OFF TIMING/COVERAGE FOR
PCPN UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FOR THE ERN CWA...MORE IN LINE WITH BEST
FORCING SEEN ON THE 700HPA AND 850HPA THETA-E SURFACES. SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY...DRAGGING PERHAPS FIRST ARCTIC
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA. VERY STRONG CAA PUSHES INTO CWA DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH LOWER LAYERS DRYING VERY RAPIDLY. HAVE
BOTTOMED OUT DWPTS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...AND WITH STRONG CAA
HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS INTO THE HIGH BREEZY/LOW END WINDY CATEGORY.
WITH THE COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION...HAVE DROPPED LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
AT LEAST A CATEGORY ALL PLACES...AND IF WINDS DROP OFF THURSDAY
NIGHT CUTTING OFF ANY MIXING POTENTIAL...LOWS COULD FALL EVEN
FURTHER.

FRIDAY SETTING UP TO BE A COOL AND QUIET WEATHER DAY AS 1036MB
HIGH DROPS INTO REGION...SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL MN BY 00Z
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC LOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
TANKING FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SHARP WEST TO EAST TEMP
GRADIENT DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY/SLOWLY THE SFC HIGH EXITS TO THE
EAST AND THE WINDS INCREASE. SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY BUT DRY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP SHOWERS
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ALONG WITH A SFC LOW.
HOWEVER MODELS ARE STILL QUITE DIVERGENT WITH POSITION AND
INTENSITY OF THE SFC LOW SO FOR NOW JUST STUCK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
SUPERBLEND POPS. BASED ON THE ACTIVE PATTERN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS
WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY AFTER SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT THEY MAY JUST HOVER AROUND AVERAGE.





&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF CIGS BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET HAS EXITED THE
WESTERN CWA AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBYS WILL BE VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.







&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 290525 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1225 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES SURROUND PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE CLIPPER-TYPE WAVE
WORKING THROUGH...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE 30S AND 40S AMID A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND BREEZY/WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS.

TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS VERY
LARGE DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS COVERING THE REGION BEING WORN AWAY
BY DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL CONTINUES TO
CARRY THIS DISSIPATION TREND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA
BY AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THIS TREND FOR A SLOW PUSH FOR
CLEARING CONDITIONS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE SKY COVER
FORECAST GRIDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO DROP OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. SO...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING
INTO...IF NOT BELOW...THE 20S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
SCOOTS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT SWEEPS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FOR NOW IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN
P-TYPE...ACROSS THIS CWA...STARTING OUT ACROSS THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ENDING ACROSS THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST
MODELS...SYNOPTIC AND CAM ALIKE...ARE GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALBEIT JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. DRY CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT AN ARCTIC
BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN SUB-FREEZING 925HPA AIR ADVECTING DOWN INTO
THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.



.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH GLANCES
THE CWA BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
RETURN FLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED QUICKLY THEREAFTER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
OVERALL FRIDAY HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 40S...BUT SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT EVEN RISE OUT OF THE 30S. RETURN FLOW WINDS AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN QUICKLY MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A 20 MB SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP UP ACROSS THE STATE OF SOUTH DAKOTA...RESULTING
IN STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE LOW QUICKLY TRACKS OFF TO
THE NORTH...SO AT THIS TIME THE ONLY PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ARE FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA COUNTIES. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN...BUT IF PRECIP MATERIALIZES EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...THERE COULD BE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW MIXED IN AS WELL.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF CIGS BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBYS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities