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000
FXUS63 KABR 030220 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
920 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES ARE BEHAVING THEMSELVES AT THE MOMENT. MID-LEVEL WAA
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ARE ONGOING SIMULTANEOUSLY ACROSS
THE REGION...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS TONIGHT`S LLJ WILL BE UPWARDS
OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS AT ITS CORE...WITH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT NOSE OF
SAID JET POINTING TOWARD EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT AFTER
06Z. THE FORECAST ALREADY HAS SOME PRECIP MENTION IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR TNT AM
STILL EXPECTING SOME LATE NIGHT ELEVATED ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF
LLJ OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGED MIXED AND
MUCAPE...COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SCT AT BEST. ON WEDNESDAY ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHEAST OVERTOP INCREASING LL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THE EML MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A FAIR CAP LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER
THE NORTHEAST CWA. HOWEVER JUST IN CASE WEAK ENERGY ALOFT PROVIDES
ENOUGH LIFT...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN PLACE. FRONT BLOWS THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MOST ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
RIDE THE CAP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AFTER A FEW
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER VS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK. THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE CHILLY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST/NORTH.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EXTENDED PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN TO START THINGS OFF. SFC HIGH IS
CENTERED OVERHEAD AT 12Z FRIDAY...WITH WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
RATHER COOL MORNING. THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PLEASANT TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY...PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL...SO COULD BE GOING
BACK INTO A FEW DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A
WEEKEND OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER
END VFR CLOUDS OR EVEN MVFR CLOUDS THAT BEGIN STREAMING NORTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN SD BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT. WITH ALL THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS TO GET NIGHT-TIME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WENT
AHEAD AND ALSO TOSSED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR TS FOR A COUPLE HOURS
TOWARD SUNRISE AT KATY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 030220 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
920 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES ARE BEHAVING THEMSELVES AT THE MOMENT. MID-LEVEL WAA
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ARE ONGOING SIMULTANEOUSLY ACROSS
THE REGION...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS TONIGHT`S LLJ WILL BE UPWARDS
OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS AT ITS CORE...WITH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT NOSE OF
SAID JET POINTING TOWARD EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT AFTER
06Z. THE FORECAST ALREADY HAS SOME PRECIP MENTION IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR TNT AM
STILL EXPECTING SOME LATE NIGHT ELEVATED ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF
LLJ OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGED MIXED AND
MUCAPE...COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SCT AT BEST. ON WEDNESDAY ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHEAST OVERTOP INCREASING LL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THE EML MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A FAIR CAP LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER
THE NORTHEAST CWA. HOWEVER JUST IN CASE WEAK ENERGY ALOFT PROVIDES
ENOUGH LIFT...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN PLACE. FRONT BLOWS THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MOST ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
RIDE THE CAP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AFTER A FEW
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER VS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK. THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE CHILLY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST/NORTH.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EXTENDED PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN TO START THINGS OFF. SFC HIGH IS
CENTERED OVERHEAD AT 12Z FRIDAY...WITH WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
RATHER COOL MORNING. THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PLEASANT TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY...PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL...SO COULD BE GOING
BACK INTO A FEW DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A
WEEKEND OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER
END VFR CLOUDS OR EVEN MVFR CLOUDS THAT BEGIN STREAMING NORTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN SD BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT. WITH ALL THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS TO GET NIGHT-TIME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WENT
AHEAD AND ALSO TOSSED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR TS FOR A COUPLE HOURS
TOWARD SUNRISE AT KATY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 030220 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
920 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES ARE BEHAVING THEMSELVES AT THE MOMENT. MID-LEVEL WAA
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ARE ONGOING SIMULTANEOUSLY ACROSS
THE REGION...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS TONIGHT`S LLJ WILL BE UPWARDS
OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS AT ITS CORE...WITH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT NOSE OF
SAID JET POINTING TOWARD EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT AFTER
06Z. THE FORECAST ALREADY HAS SOME PRECIP MENTION IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR TNT AM
STILL EXPECTING SOME LATE NIGHT ELEVATED ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF
LLJ OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGED MIXED AND
MUCAPE...COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SCT AT BEST. ON WEDNESDAY ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHEAST OVERTOP INCREASING LL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THE EML MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A FAIR CAP LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER
THE NORTHEAST CWA. HOWEVER JUST IN CASE WEAK ENERGY ALOFT PROVIDES
ENOUGH LIFT...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN PLACE. FRONT BLOWS THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MOST ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
RIDE THE CAP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AFTER A FEW
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER VS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK. THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE CHILLY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST/NORTH.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EXTENDED PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN TO START THINGS OFF. SFC HIGH IS
CENTERED OVERHEAD AT 12Z FRIDAY...WITH WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
RATHER COOL MORNING. THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PLEASANT TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY...PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL...SO COULD BE GOING
BACK INTO A FEW DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A
WEEKEND OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER
END VFR CLOUDS OR EVEN MVFR CLOUDS THAT BEGIN STREAMING NORTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN SD BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT. WITH ALL THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS TO GET NIGHT-TIME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WENT
AHEAD AND ALSO TOSSED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR TS FOR A COUPLE HOURS
TOWARD SUNRISE AT KATY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 030220 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
920 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES ARE BEHAVING THEMSELVES AT THE MOMENT. MID-LEVEL WAA
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ARE ONGOING SIMULTANEOUSLY ACROSS
THE REGION...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS TONIGHT`S LLJ WILL BE UPWARDS
OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS AT ITS CORE...WITH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT NOSE OF
SAID JET POINTING TOWARD EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT AFTER
06Z. THE FORECAST ALREADY HAS SOME PRECIP MENTION IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR TNT AM
STILL EXPECTING SOME LATE NIGHT ELEVATED ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF
LLJ OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGED MIXED AND
MUCAPE...COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SCT AT BEST. ON WEDNESDAY ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHEAST OVERTOP INCREASING LL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THE EML MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A FAIR CAP LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER
THE NORTHEAST CWA. HOWEVER JUST IN CASE WEAK ENERGY ALOFT PROVIDES
ENOUGH LIFT...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN PLACE. FRONT BLOWS THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MOST ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
RIDE THE CAP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AFTER A FEW
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER VS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK. THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE CHILLY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST/NORTH.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EXTENDED PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN TO START THINGS OFF. SFC HIGH IS
CENTERED OVERHEAD AT 12Z FRIDAY...WITH WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
RATHER COOL MORNING. THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PLEASANT TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY...PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL...SO COULD BE GOING
BACK INTO A FEW DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A
WEEKEND OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER
END VFR CLOUDS OR EVEN MVFR CLOUDS THAT BEGIN STREAMING NORTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN SD BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT. WITH ALL THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS TO GET NIGHT-TIME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WENT
AHEAD AND ALSO TOSSED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR TS FOR A COUPLE HOURS
TOWARD SUNRISE AT KATY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KFSD 022355
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
655 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND HOW WARM AND HUMID IT
WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL START OFF CLEAR WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS EVENING...EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST ...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I29.
IN ADDITION...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG
NEAR SURFACE INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN A DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM MARSHALL DOWN
TO TRACY OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN.
MEANWHILE...700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING BELOW THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER...CAPES WILL BE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS LIKELY
OVERDONE WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 2500 J/KG IN SW MN BUT MUCAPES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE BY 12Z WED. AT THE SAME
TIME...WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z. THE FIRST STORMS MAY DEVELOP
AS FAR WEST OF HURON...SIOUX FALLS AND STORM LAKE BUT THE MOST
LIKELY AREA WILL BE IN SW MN AFTER 09Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE
LIMITED...20 TO 30 KTS...AS WILL INSTABILITY...BUT STRONG ENOUGH
UPDRAFTS MAY DEVELOP TO RESULT IN SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS
PRIOR TO 12Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...WITH
WARMEST READINGS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND COOLEST READINGS AROUND SPW.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOMORROW
MORNING...PRIMARILY IN SW MN. LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY WARM LAYER
FROM 800 TO 700 HPA WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF SE SD...NE
NEBRASKA...AND NW IA BY LATE MORNING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP
ON THE SW SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND OVER DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING...INCREASING CAPES...APPROACHING 1500 TO 2000 J/KG AND
SHEAR...APPROACHING 40 KTS...WOULD SUPPORT UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE
HAIL. BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING IS LOW. THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO CENTRAL MN LATE WED AFTERNOON. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE PRESENCE OF LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL
DIABATIC HEATING COULD RESULT IN A ONE OR TWO STORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE VICINITY OF MARSHALL. WHILE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY...LESS THAN
20 PERCENT...IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
EVOLVE INTO SEVERE SUPERCELLS AS CAPES WOULD BE GREATER THAN 2000
J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR GREATER THAN 40 KTS. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS TOMORROW
ARE VERY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...EXPECT
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW 90S WITH LOTS OF SUN...WHILE IN SW MN LOWER
80S ARE EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH A STRONG
INVERSION IN PLACE...DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S RESULTING IN
HEAT INDICES OF 90 TO 100 DEGREES WEST OF I29 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL ALLOW ANY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA QUICKLY. EARLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER...A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT DROPS INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MOVES INTO THE JAMES VALLEY REGION LATE AT NIGHT.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. DID SPEED UP THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT SLIGHTLY...WHICH BRINGS IT INTO THE I29 CORRIDOR LATE
MORNING AND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON.
STRONG CAPPING AND SOMEWHAT WEAK SUPPORT ATTENDING THE FRONT WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED TO LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RAPIDLY EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO SOME
PLEASANT...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND IMPROVING A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE COOL AS WELL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO MID 40S TO LOW
50S...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND BELOW THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE.

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON REGARDING THE PATTERN
EVOLUTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FETCH. THIS WILL ALLOW A
GREATER MOISTURE RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
STRONG WAVE EMERGING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASED
MOISTURE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS
SUGGEST SOME CYCLOGENESIS FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE DECENT AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AGREE WITH THE HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM A FEW
DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MAIN ISSUES FOR TAFS ARE CONVECTION...POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND LOW CLOUDS. THROUGH 06Z WED...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHEAST IN ALL LOCATIONS IN
THE EVENING. AFTER 06Z...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO SPARK DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR
TO DAWN. WHILE A STORM IS POSSIBLE IN KFSD OR KHON...THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE IN SW MN. THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE TSRA IN TAF FOR EITHER
SITE. HOWEVER...WITH A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTHWEST MN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. CORE OF THE JET
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF KHON...BUT COULD AFFECT KFSD/KSUX...WITH
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR LOCALLY ENHANCED AT KSUX DUE TO EXPECTED LOCAL
EFFECT IN MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY CAUSING MORE OF AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT IN THE SURFACE WIND.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ALL MODELS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING BELOW A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION
SO EXPECT CIGS FROM 1000 TO 2000 FT TO DEVELOP AT KFSD AND KSUX
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WITH LESS MOISTURE EXPECTED AT KHON...KEPT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW...THOUGH DID INTRODUCE A SMALL WINDOW
OF HIGHER MVFR CEILINGS AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 022355
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
655 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND HOW WARM AND HUMID IT
WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL START OFF CLEAR WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS EVENING...EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST ...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I29.
IN ADDITION...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG
NEAR SURFACE INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN A DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM MARSHALL DOWN
TO TRACY OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN.
MEANWHILE...700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING BELOW THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER...CAPES WILL BE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS LIKELY
OVERDONE WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 2500 J/KG IN SW MN BUT MUCAPES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE BY 12Z WED. AT THE SAME
TIME...WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z. THE FIRST STORMS MAY DEVELOP
AS FAR WEST OF HURON...SIOUX FALLS AND STORM LAKE BUT THE MOST
LIKELY AREA WILL BE IN SW MN AFTER 09Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE
LIMITED...20 TO 30 KTS...AS WILL INSTABILITY...BUT STRONG ENOUGH
UPDRAFTS MAY DEVELOP TO RESULT IN SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS
PRIOR TO 12Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...WITH
WARMEST READINGS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND COOLEST READINGS AROUND SPW.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOMORROW
MORNING...PRIMARILY IN SW MN. LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY WARM LAYER
FROM 800 TO 700 HPA WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF SE SD...NE
NEBRASKA...AND NW IA BY LATE MORNING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP
ON THE SW SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND OVER DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING...INCREASING CAPES...APPROACHING 1500 TO 2000 J/KG AND
SHEAR...APPROACHING 40 KTS...WOULD SUPPORT UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE
HAIL. BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING IS LOW. THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO CENTRAL MN LATE WED AFTERNOON. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE PRESENCE OF LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL
DIABATIC HEATING COULD RESULT IN A ONE OR TWO STORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE VICINITY OF MARSHALL. WHILE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY...LESS THAN
20 PERCENT...IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
EVOLVE INTO SEVERE SUPERCELLS AS CAPES WOULD BE GREATER THAN 2000
J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR GREATER THAN 40 KTS. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS TOMORROW
ARE VERY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...EXPECT
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW 90S WITH LOTS OF SUN...WHILE IN SW MN LOWER
80S ARE EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH A STRONG
INVERSION IN PLACE...DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S RESULTING IN
HEAT INDICES OF 90 TO 100 DEGREES WEST OF I29 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL ALLOW ANY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA QUICKLY. EARLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER...A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT DROPS INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MOVES INTO THE JAMES VALLEY REGION LATE AT NIGHT.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. DID SPEED UP THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT SLIGHTLY...WHICH BRINGS IT INTO THE I29 CORRIDOR LATE
MORNING AND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON.
STRONG CAPPING AND SOMEWHAT WEAK SUPPORT ATTENDING THE FRONT WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED TO LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RAPIDLY EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO SOME
PLEASANT...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND IMPROVING A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE COOL AS WELL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO MID 40S TO LOW
50S...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND BELOW THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE.

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON REGARDING THE PATTERN
EVOLUTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FETCH. THIS WILL ALLOW A
GREATER MOISTURE RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
STRONG WAVE EMERGING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASED
MOISTURE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS
SUGGEST SOME CYCLOGENESIS FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE DECENT AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AGREE WITH THE HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM A FEW
DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MAIN ISSUES FOR TAFS ARE CONVECTION...POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND LOW CLOUDS. THROUGH 06Z WED...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHEAST IN ALL LOCATIONS IN
THE EVENING. AFTER 06Z...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO SPARK DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR
TO DAWN. WHILE A STORM IS POSSIBLE IN KFSD OR KHON...THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE IN SW MN. THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE TSRA IN TAF FOR EITHER
SITE. HOWEVER...WITH A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTHWEST MN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. CORE OF THE JET
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF KHON...BUT COULD AFFECT KFSD/KSUX...WITH
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR LOCALLY ENHANCED AT KSUX DUE TO EXPECTED LOCAL
EFFECT IN MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY CAUSING MORE OF AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT IN THE SURFACE WIND.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ALL MODELS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING BELOW A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION
SO EXPECT CIGS FROM 1000 TO 2000 FT TO DEVELOP AT KFSD AND KSUX
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WITH LESS MOISTURE EXPECTED AT KHON...KEPT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW...THOUGH DID INTRODUCE A SMALL WINDOW
OF HIGHER MVFR CEILINGS AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KABR 022341 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
641 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR TNT AM
STILL EXPECTING SOME LATE NIGHT ELEVATED ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF
LLJ OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGED MIXED AND
MUCAPE...COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SCT AT BEST. ON WEDNESDAY ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHEAST OVERTOP INCREASING LL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THE EML MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A FAIR CAP LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER
THE NORTHEAST CWA. HOWEVER JUST IN CASE WEAK ENERGY ALOFT PROVIDES
ENOUGH LIFT...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN PLACE. FRONT BLOWS THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MOST ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
RIDE THE CAP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AFTER A FEW
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER VS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK. THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE CHILLY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST/NORTH.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EXTENDED PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN TO START THINGS OFF. SFC HIGH IS
CENTERED OVERHEAD AT 12Z FRIDAY...WITH WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
RATHER COOL MORNING. THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PLEASANT TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY...PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL...SO COULD BE GOING
BACK INTO A FEW DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A
WEEKEND OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER
END VFR CLOUDS OR EVEN MVFR CLOUDS THAT BEGIN STREAMING NORTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN SD BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT. WITH ALL THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS TO GET NIGHT-TIME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WENT
AHEAD AND ALSO TOSSED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR TS FOR A COUPLE HOURS
TOWARD SUNRISE AT KATY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 022341 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
641 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR TNT AM
STILL EXPECTING SOME LATE NIGHT ELEVATED ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF
LLJ OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGED MIXED AND
MUCAPE...COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SCT AT BEST. ON WEDNESDAY ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHEAST OVERTOP INCREASING LL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THE EML MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A FAIR CAP LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER
THE NORTHEAST CWA. HOWEVER JUST IN CASE WEAK ENERGY ALOFT PROVIDES
ENOUGH LIFT...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN PLACE. FRONT BLOWS THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MOST ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
RIDE THE CAP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AFTER A FEW
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER VS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK. THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE CHILLY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST/NORTH.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EXTENDED PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN TO START THINGS OFF. SFC HIGH IS
CENTERED OVERHEAD AT 12Z FRIDAY...WITH WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
RATHER COOL MORNING. THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PLEASANT TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY...PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL...SO COULD BE GOING
BACK INTO A FEW DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A
WEEKEND OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER
END VFR CLOUDS OR EVEN MVFR CLOUDS THAT BEGIN STREAMING NORTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN SD BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT. WITH ALL THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS TO GET NIGHT-TIME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WENT
AHEAD AND ALSO TOSSED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR TS FOR A COUPLE HOURS
TOWARD SUNRISE AT KATY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 022341 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
641 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR TNT AM
STILL EXPECTING SOME LATE NIGHT ELEVATED ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF
LLJ OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGED MIXED AND
MUCAPE...COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SCT AT BEST. ON WEDNESDAY ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHEAST OVERTOP INCREASING LL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THE EML MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A FAIR CAP LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER
THE NORTHEAST CWA. HOWEVER JUST IN CASE WEAK ENERGY ALOFT PROVIDES
ENOUGH LIFT...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN PLACE. FRONT BLOWS THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MOST ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
RIDE THE CAP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AFTER A FEW
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER VS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK. THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE CHILLY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST/NORTH.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EXTENDED PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN TO START THINGS OFF. SFC HIGH IS
CENTERED OVERHEAD AT 12Z FRIDAY...WITH WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
RATHER COOL MORNING. THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PLEASANT TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY...PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL...SO COULD BE GOING
BACK INTO A FEW DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A
WEEKEND OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER
END VFR CLOUDS OR EVEN MVFR CLOUDS THAT BEGIN STREAMING NORTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN SD BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT. WITH ALL THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS TO GET NIGHT-TIME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WENT
AHEAD AND ALSO TOSSED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR TS FOR A COUPLE HOURS
TOWARD SUNRISE AT KATY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 022341 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
641 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR TNT AM
STILL EXPECTING SOME LATE NIGHT ELEVATED ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF
LLJ OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGED MIXED AND
MUCAPE...COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SCT AT BEST. ON WEDNESDAY ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHEAST OVERTOP INCREASING LL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THE EML MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A FAIR CAP LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER
THE NORTHEAST CWA. HOWEVER JUST IN CASE WEAK ENERGY ALOFT PROVIDES
ENOUGH LIFT...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN PLACE. FRONT BLOWS THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MOST ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
RIDE THE CAP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AFTER A FEW
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER VS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK. THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE CHILLY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST/NORTH.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EXTENDED PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN TO START THINGS OFF. SFC HIGH IS
CENTERED OVERHEAD AT 12Z FRIDAY...WITH WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
RATHER COOL MORNING. THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PLEASANT TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY...PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL...SO COULD BE GOING
BACK INTO A FEW DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A
WEEKEND OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER
END VFR CLOUDS OR EVEN MVFR CLOUDS THAT BEGIN STREAMING NORTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN SD BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT. WITH ALL THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS TO GET NIGHT-TIME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WENT
AHEAD AND ALSO TOSSED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR TS FOR A COUPLE HOURS
TOWARD SUNRISE AT KATY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




  [top]

000
FXUS63 KUNR 022313
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
513 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WITH UPPER TROF WORKING INTO THE PAC
NW. AT THE SFC...WEAK TROF LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BLKHLS. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES OVERHEAD WITH WARM TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S EARLY
THIS AFTN.

SHARP UPPER TROF WORKS ACRS SRN SASK/MT ON WED AND SRN MANITOBA/ND
WED NIGHT. THERMAL RIDGE NOSES INTO THE CWFA AHEAD OF THIS TROF
RESULTING IN VERY WARM TEMPS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH/EAST OF THE BLKHLS
WHERE TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 90S. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH STRONG CAP IN PLACE.

ROBUST CDFNT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE CWFA WED NIGHT. 6+MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISES AND 40-50KT 850MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WIND HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME
NECESSARY. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WEAK
THETA-E ADVECTION ON THE PLAINS OF WRN/CNTRL SD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS ND/SRN CANADA THURSDAY...
WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING N/NE OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY. COULD SEE LOWS FALL INTO THE 30S IN A FEW AREAS FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP
ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER AIR WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING.

AS A BROAD UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. COULD
SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RETURNING BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL COOLDOWN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MOSTLY
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 511 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LLJ WILL DEVELOP
OVER SCENTRAL SD IN RESPONSE TO AN ADVECTING NW CONUS UPPER
TROUGH. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THERE TONIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC






000
FXUS63 KUNR 022313
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
513 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WITH UPPER TROF WORKING INTO THE PAC
NW. AT THE SFC...WEAK TROF LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BLKHLS. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES OVERHEAD WITH WARM TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S EARLY
THIS AFTN.

SHARP UPPER TROF WORKS ACRS SRN SASK/MT ON WED AND SRN MANITOBA/ND
WED NIGHT. THERMAL RIDGE NOSES INTO THE CWFA AHEAD OF THIS TROF
RESULTING IN VERY WARM TEMPS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH/EAST OF THE BLKHLS
WHERE TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 90S. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH STRONG CAP IN PLACE.

ROBUST CDFNT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE CWFA WED NIGHT. 6+MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISES AND 40-50KT 850MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WIND HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME
NECESSARY. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WEAK
THETA-E ADVECTION ON THE PLAINS OF WRN/CNTRL SD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS ND/SRN CANADA THURSDAY...
WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING N/NE OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY. COULD SEE LOWS FALL INTO THE 30S IN A FEW AREAS FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP
ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER AIR WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING.

AS A BROAD UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. COULD
SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RETURNING BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL COOLDOWN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MOSTLY
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 511 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LLJ WILL DEVELOP
OVER SCENTRAL SD IN RESPONSE TO AN ADVECTING NW CONUS UPPER
TROUGH. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THERE TONIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KFSD 022032
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
332 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND HOW WARM AND HUMID IT
WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL START OFF CLEAR WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS EVENING...EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST ...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I29.
IN ADDITION...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG
NEAR SURFACE INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN A DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM MARSHALL DOWN
TO TRACY OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN.
MEANWHILE...700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING BELOW THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER...CAPES WILL BE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS LIKELY
OVERDONE WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 2500 J/KG IN SW MN BUT MUCAPES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE BY 12Z WED. AT THE SAME
TIME...WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z. THE FIRST STORMS MAY DEVELOP
AS FAR WEST OF HURON...SIOUX FALLS AND STORM LAKE BUT THE MOST
LIKELY AREA WILL BE IN SW MN AFTER 09Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE
LIMITED...20 TO 30 KTS...AS WILL INSTABILITY...BUT STRONG ENOUGH
UPDRAFTS MAY DEVELOP TO RESULT IN SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS
PRIOR TO 12Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...WITH
WARMEST READINGS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND COOLEST READINGS AROUND SPW.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOMORROW
MORNING...PRIMARILY IN SW MN. LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY WARM LAYER
FROM 800 TO 700 HPA WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF SE SD...NE
NEBRASKA...AND NW IA BY LATE MORNING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP
ON THE SW SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND OVER DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING...INCREASING CAPES...APPROACHING 1500 TO 2000 J/KG AND
SHEAR...APPROACHING 40 KTS...WOULD SUPPORT UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE
HAIL. BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING IS LOW. THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO CENTRAL MN LATE WED AFTERNOON. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE PRESENCE OF LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL
DIABATIC HEATING COULD RESULT IN A ONE OR TWO STORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE VICINITY OF MARSHALL. WHILE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY...LESS THAN
20 PERCENT...IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
EVOLVE INTO SEVERE SUPERCELLS AS CAPES WOULD BE GREATER THAN 2000
J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR GREATER THAN 40 KTS. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS TOMORROW
ARE VERY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...EXPECT
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW 90S WITH LOTS OF SUN...WHILE IN SW MN LOWER
80S ARE EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH A STRONG
INVERSION IN PLACE...DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S RESULTING IN
HEAT INDICES OF 90 TO 100 DEGREES WEST OF I29 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL ALLOW ANY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA QUICKLY. EARLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER...A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT DROPS INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MOVES INTO THE JAMES VALLEY REGION LATE AT NIGHT.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. DID SPEED UP THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT SLIGHTLY...WHICH BRINGS IT INTO THE I29 CORRIDOR LATE
MORNING AND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON.
STRONG CAPPING AND SOMEWHAT WEAK SUPPORT ATTENDING THE FRONT WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED TO LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RAPIDLY EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO SOME
PLEASANT...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND IMPROVING A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE COOL AS WELL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO MID 40S TO LOW
50S...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND BELOW THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE.

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON REGARDING THE PATTERN
EVOLUTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FETCH. THIS WILL ALLOW A
GREATER MOISTURE RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
STRONG WAVE EMERGING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASED
MOISTURE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS
SUGGEST SOME CYCLOGENESIS FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE DECENT AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AGREE WITH THE HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM A FEW
DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MAIN ISSUE FOR TAFS ARE CONVECTION...POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND LOW CLOUDS. THROUGH 06Z WED...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHEAST IN ALL LOCATION IN
THE EVENING. AFTER 06Z...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR TO DAWN. WHILE A STORM IS POSSIBLE IN KFSD
OR KHON...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN SW MN. THEREFORE DID NOT
INCLUDE TSRA IN TAF FOR EITHER SITE. HOWEVER...WITH A 40 TO 50 KT
LOW LEVEL JET FROM SOUTHEAST SD IN SW MN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THU MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. WITH CORE OF THE JET GOING THROUGH THE KFSD AREA...DID
ADD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR SIOUX FALLS...BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO EXAMINE POTENTIAL IN KHON. THE OTHER CONCERN IS
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS SHOW
MOISTURE INCREASING BELOW A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION SO EXPECT CIGS
FROM 1000 TO 2000 FT TO DEVELOP AT KFSD AND KSUX SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. WITH LESS MOISTURE EXPECTED AT KHON...KEPT VFR CONDITIONS
FOR NOW.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER



000
FXUS63 KFSD 022032
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
332 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND HOW WARM AND HUMID IT
WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL START OFF CLEAR WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS EVENING...EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST ...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I29.
IN ADDITION...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG
NEAR SURFACE INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN A DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM MARSHALL DOWN
TO TRACY OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN.
MEANWHILE...700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING BELOW THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER...CAPES WILL BE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS LIKELY
OVERDONE WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 2500 J/KG IN SW MN BUT MUCAPES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE BY 12Z WED. AT THE SAME
TIME...WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z. THE FIRST STORMS MAY DEVELOP
AS FAR WEST OF HURON...SIOUX FALLS AND STORM LAKE BUT THE MOST
LIKELY AREA WILL BE IN SW MN AFTER 09Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE
LIMITED...20 TO 30 KTS...AS WILL INSTABILITY...BUT STRONG ENOUGH
UPDRAFTS MAY DEVELOP TO RESULT IN SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS
PRIOR TO 12Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...WITH
WARMEST READINGS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND COOLEST READINGS AROUND SPW.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOMORROW
MORNING...PRIMARILY IN SW MN. LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY WARM LAYER
FROM 800 TO 700 HPA WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF SE SD...NE
NEBRASKA...AND NW IA BY LATE MORNING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP
ON THE SW SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND OVER DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING...INCREASING CAPES...APPROACHING 1500 TO 2000 J/KG AND
SHEAR...APPROACHING 40 KTS...WOULD SUPPORT UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE
HAIL. BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING IS LOW. THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO CENTRAL MN LATE WED AFTERNOON. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE PRESENCE OF LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL
DIABATIC HEATING COULD RESULT IN A ONE OR TWO STORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE VICINITY OF MARSHALL. WHILE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY...LESS THAN
20 PERCENT...IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
EVOLVE INTO SEVERE SUPERCELLS AS CAPES WOULD BE GREATER THAN 2000
J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR GREATER THAN 40 KTS. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS TOMORROW
ARE VERY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...EXPECT
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW 90S WITH LOTS OF SUN...WHILE IN SW MN LOWER
80S ARE EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH A STRONG
INVERSION IN PLACE...DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S RESULTING IN
HEAT INDICES OF 90 TO 100 DEGREES WEST OF I29 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL ALLOW ANY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA QUICKLY. EARLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER...A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT DROPS INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MOVES INTO THE JAMES VALLEY REGION LATE AT NIGHT.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. DID SPEED UP THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT SLIGHTLY...WHICH BRINGS IT INTO THE I29 CORRIDOR LATE
MORNING AND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON.
STRONG CAPPING AND SOMEWHAT WEAK SUPPORT ATTENDING THE FRONT WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED TO LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RAPIDLY EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO SOME
PLEASANT...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND IMPROVING A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE COOL AS WELL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO MID 40S TO LOW
50S...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND BELOW THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE.

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON REGARDING THE PATTERN
EVOLUTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FETCH. THIS WILL ALLOW A
GREATER MOISTURE RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
STRONG WAVE EMERGING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASED
MOISTURE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS
SUGGEST SOME CYCLOGENESIS FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE DECENT AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AGREE WITH THE HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM A FEW
DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MAIN ISSUE FOR TAFS ARE CONVECTION...POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND LOW CLOUDS. THROUGH 06Z WED...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHEAST IN ALL LOCATION IN
THE EVENING. AFTER 06Z...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR TO DAWN. WHILE A STORM IS POSSIBLE IN KFSD
OR KHON...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN SW MN. THEREFORE DID NOT
INCLUDE TSRA IN TAF FOR EITHER SITE. HOWEVER...WITH A 40 TO 50 KT
LOW LEVEL JET FROM SOUTHEAST SD IN SW MN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THU MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. WITH CORE OF THE JET GOING THROUGH THE KFSD AREA...DID
ADD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR SIOUX FALLS...BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO EXAMINE POTENTIAL IN KHON. THE OTHER CONCERN IS
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS SHOW
MOISTURE INCREASING BELOW A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION SO EXPECT CIGS
FROM 1000 TO 2000 FT TO DEVELOP AT KFSD AND KSUX SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. WITH LESS MOISTURE EXPECTED AT KHON...KEPT VFR CONDITIONS
FOR NOW.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER




000
FXUS63 KABR 022008
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
308 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR TNT AM
STILL EXPECTING SOME LATE NIGHT ELEVATED ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF
LLJ OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGED MIXED AND
MUCAPE...COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SCT AT BEST. ON WEDNESDAY ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHEAST OVERTOP INCREASING LL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THE EML MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A FAIR CAP LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER
THE NORTHEAST CWA. HOWEVER JUST IN CASE WEAK ENERGY ALOFT PROVIDES
ENOUGH LIFT...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN PLACE. FRONT BLOWS THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MOST ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
RIDE THE CAP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AFTER A FEW
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER VS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK. THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE CHILLY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST/NORTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EXTENDED PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN TO START THINGS OFF. SFC HIGH IS
CENTERED OVERHEAD AT 12Z FRIDAY...WITH WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
RATHER COOL MORNING. THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PLEASANT TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY...PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL...SO COULD BE GOING
BACK INTO A FEW DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A
WEEKEND OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER
END VFR CLOUDS OR EVEN MVFR CLOUDS THAT BEGIN STREAMING NORTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN SD BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 022008
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
308 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR TNT AM
STILL EXPECTING SOME LATE NIGHT ELEVATED ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF
LLJ OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGED MIXED AND
MUCAPE...COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SCT AT BEST. ON WEDNESDAY ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHEAST OVERTOP INCREASING LL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THE EML MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A FAIR CAP LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER
THE NORTHEAST CWA. HOWEVER JUST IN CASE WEAK ENERGY ALOFT PROVIDES
ENOUGH LIFT...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN PLACE. FRONT BLOWS THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MOST ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
RIDE THE CAP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AFTER A FEW
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER VS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK. THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE CHILLY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST/NORTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EXTENDED PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN TO START THINGS OFF. SFC HIGH IS
CENTERED OVERHEAD AT 12Z FRIDAY...WITH WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
RATHER COOL MORNING. THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PLEASANT TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY...PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL...SO COULD BE GOING
BACK INTO A FEW DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A
WEEKEND OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER
END VFR CLOUDS OR EVEN MVFR CLOUDS THAT BEGIN STREAMING NORTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN SD BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 022008
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
308 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR TNT AM
STILL EXPECTING SOME LATE NIGHT ELEVATED ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF
LLJ OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGED MIXED AND
MUCAPE...COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SCT AT BEST. ON WEDNESDAY ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHEAST OVERTOP INCREASING LL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THE EML MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A FAIR CAP LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER
THE NORTHEAST CWA. HOWEVER JUST IN CASE WEAK ENERGY ALOFT PROVIDES
ENOUGH LIFT...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN PLACE. FRONT BLOWS THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MOST ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
RIDE THE CAP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AFTER A FEW
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER VS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK. THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE CHILLY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST/NORTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EXTENDED PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN TO START THINGS OFF. SFC HIGH IS
CENTERED OVERHEAD AT 12Z FRIDAY...WITH WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
RATHER COOL MORNING. THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PLEASANT TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY...PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL...SO COULD BE GOING
BACK INTO A FEW DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A
WEEKEND OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER
END VFR CLOUDS OR EVEN MVFR CLOUDS THAT BEGIN STREAMING NORTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN SD BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 022008
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
308 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR TNT AM
STILL EXPECTING SOME LATE NIGHT ELEVATED ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF
LLJ OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGED MIXED AND
MUCAPE...COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SCT AT BEST. ON WEDNESDAY ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHEAST OVERTOP INCREASING LL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THE EML MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A FAIR CAP LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER
THE NORTHEAST CWA. HOWEVER JUST IN CASE WEAK ENERGY ALOFT PROVIDES
ENOUGH LIFT...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN PLACE. FRONT BLOWS THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MOST ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
RIDE THE CAP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AFTER A FEW
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER VS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK. THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE CHILLY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST/NORTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EXTENDED PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN TO START THINGS OFF. SFC HIGH IS
CENTERED OVERHEAD AT 12Z FRIDAY...WITH WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
RATHER COOL MORNING. THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PLEASANT TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY...PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL...SO COULD BE GOING
BACK INTO A FEW DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A
WEEKEND OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER
END VFR CLOUDS OR EVEN MVFR CLOUDS THAT BEGIN STREAMING NORTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN SD BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 022000
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
200 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WITH UPPER TROF WORKING INTO THE PAC
NW. AT THE SFC...WEAK TROF LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BLKHLS. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES OVERHEAD WITH WARM TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S EARLY
THIS AFTN.

SHARP UPPER TROF WORKS ACRS SRN SASK/MT ON WED AND SRN MANITOBA/ND
WED NIGHT. THERMAL RIDGE NOSES INTO THE CWFA AHEAD OF THIS TROF
RESULTING IN VERY WARM TEMPS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH/EAST OF THE BLKHLS
WHERE TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 90S. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH STRONG CAP IN PLACE.

ROBUST CDFNT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE CWFA WED NIGHT. 6+MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISES AND 40-50KT 850MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WIND HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME
NECESSARY. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WEAK
THETA-E ADVECTION ON THE PLAINS OF WRN/CNTRL SD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS ND/SRN CANADA THURSDAY...
WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING N/NE OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY. COULD SEE LOWS FALL INTO THE 30S IN A FEW AREAS FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP
ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER AIR WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING.

AS A BROAD UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. COULD
SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RETURNING BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL COOLDOWN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MOSTLY
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26






000
FXUS63 KUNR 022000
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
200 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WITH UPPER TROF WORKING INTO THE PAC
NW. AT THE SFC...WEAK TROF LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BLKHLS. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES OVERHEAD WITH WARM TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S EARLY
THIS AFTN.

SHARP UPPER TROF WORKS ACRS SRN SASK/MT ON WED AND SRN MANITOBA/ND
WED NIGHT. THERMAL RIDGE NOSES INTO THE CWFA AHEAD OF THIS TROF
RESULTING IN VERY WARM TEMPS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH/EAST OF THE BLKHLS
WHERE TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 90S. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH STRONG CAP IN PLACE.

ROBUST CDFNT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE CWFA WED NIGHT. 6+MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISES AND 40-50KT 850MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WIND HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME
NECESSARY. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WEAK
THETA-E ADVECTION ON THE PLAINS OF WRN/CNTRL SD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS ND/SRN CANADA THURSDAY...
WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING N/NE OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY. COULD SEE LOWS FALL INTO THE 30S IN A FEW AREAS FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP
ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER AIR WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING.

AS A BROAD UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. COULD
SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RETURNING BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL COOLDOWN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MOSTLY
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KABR 021730 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

FORECAST LOOKS FINE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WILL CAUSE A
WEAK LLJ TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ COULD
AFFECT I-29 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION COULD LINGER BEYOND 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THUS WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO CHC POPS.

A STRONG TROUGH...CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 0Z
THURSDAY. WAA ALONG WITH INCREASING LLM WILL SPREAD INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. WITH AN INCREASING EML WITH 700 MB TEMPS EXCEEDING
+11C...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA WHERE
BETTER LLM IS LOCATED. WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

NOT MUCH HAPPENING DURING THE LONG TERM WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR IT TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES
THE WEATHER. ALSO...NOT MUCH FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM. BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA PUSHES EAST AND WARMER SOUTH WINDS RETURN. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY WARM INTO THE MID 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER
END VFR CLOUDS OR EVEN MVFR CLOUDS THAT BEGIN STREAMING NORTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN SD BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK/TMT
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 021730 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

FORECAST LOOKS FINE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WILL CAUSE A
WEAK LLJ TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ COULD
AFFECT I-29 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION COULD LINGER BEYOND 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THUS WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO CHC POPS.

A STRONG TROUGH...CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 0Z
THURSDAY. WAA ALONG WITH INCREASING LLM WILL SPREAD INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. WITH AN INCREASING EML WITH 700 MB TEMPS EXCEEDING
+11C...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA WHERE
BETTER LLM IS LOCATED. WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

NOT MUCH HAPPENING DURING THE LONG TERM WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR IT TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES
THE WEATHER. ALSO...NOT MUCH FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM. BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA PUSHES EAST AND WARMER SOUTH WINDS RETURN. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY WARM INTO THE MID 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER
END VFR CLOUDS OR EVEN MVFR CLOUDS THAT BEGIN STREAMING NORTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN SD BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK/TMT
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 021730 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

FORECAST LOOKS FINE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WILL CAUSE A
WEAK LLJ TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ COULD
AFFECT I-29 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION COULD LINGER BEYOND 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THUS WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO CHC POPS.

A STRONG TROUGH...CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 0Z
THURSDAY. WAA ALONG WITH INCREASING LLM WILL SPREAD INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. WITH AN INCREASING EML WITH 700 MB TEMPS EXCEEDING
+11C...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA WHERE
BETTER LLM IS LOCATED. WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

NOT MUCH HAPPENING DURING THE LONG TERM WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR IT TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES
THE WEATHER. ALSO...NOT MUCH FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM. BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA PUSHES EAST AND WARMER SOUTH WINDS RETURN. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY WARM INTO THE MID 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER
END VFR CLOUDS OR EVEN MVFR CLOUDS THAT BEGIN STREAMING NORTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN SD BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK/TMT
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 021730 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

FORECAST LOOKS FINE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WILL CAUSE A
WEAK LLJ TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ COULD
AFFECT I-29 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION COULD LINGER BEYOND 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THUS WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO CHC POPS.

A STRONG TROUGH...CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 0Z
THURSDAY. WAA ALONG WITH INCREASING LLM WILL SPREAD INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. WITH AN INCREASING EML WITH 700 MB TEMPS EXCEEDING
+11C...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA WHERE
BETTER LLM IS LOCATED. WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

NOT MUCH HAPPENING DURING THE LONG TERM WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR IT TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES
THE WEATHER. ALSO...NOT MUCH FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM. BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA PUSHES EAST AND WARMER SOUTH WINDS RETURN. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY WARM INTO THE MID 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER
END VFR CLOUDS OR EVEN MVFR CLOUDS THAT BEGIN STREAMING NORTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN SD BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK/TMT
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 021723
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1223 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WAVE WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING...GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO
WARM...BUT AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY...DO NOT THINK MIXING WILL
BE AS GOOD. EITHER WAY...MOST GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO LOW GIVEN MODEL 850
AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES...THUS CONTINUED ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. LOOKING FOR UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH
IS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP TONIGHT...INCREASING THETA E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS A
RESULT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THE LOWER LEVELS TO REMAIN CAPPED AS
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ADVECT IN AS WELL. THUS LOOKING LIKE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY END UP BASED AROUND 800 MB OR
SO. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ELEVATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A
HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE LINE. BASED ON LOW LEVEL JET
LOCATION AND ORIENTATION THIS MAKES SENSE AS WELL...SO FOCUSED
POPS IN THIS AREA. THINK ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY JUST REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BETWEEN 3 AM AND 7 AM. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE
WITH INSTABILITY ORIGINATING FROM 800 MB...SUGGESTING OVER 2000
J/KG. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SEEM MORE REASONABLE...WITH 1000
J/KG OR LESS OF ELEVATED CAPE. STORMS WILL BE BASED ABOVE THE BEST
SHEAR AS WELL...SO OTHER THAN MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL...WOULD NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING TOO STRONG THROUGH 12Z. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING OVERNIGHT...WARMED LOWS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LIKELY THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE CWA. NAM SOLUTION REJECTED FOR SEVERAL REASONS...NOT THE
LEAST BEING SOME VERY UNREALISTIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...WHICH
ARE ALLOWING A MUCH FURTHER SOUTH DEVELOPMENT INTO THE APPROACHING
CAP. WILL WATCH MID LEVEL FOCUS FOR THIS CONVECTION PULL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. OTHER ISSUE WITH WEDNESDAY WILL BE
THREAT FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY MORNING TO PERSIST LONGER
INTO THE DAY IN THE EAST TO GREATLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. EAST OF
I 29 LIKELY TO SEE VERY LIMITED SUNSHINE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...
PERHAPS EVEN A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN GOING FORECAST. AREAS TO
THE WEST WILL BE POISED TO HOLD ON TO OR BREAK OUT INTO SUNSHINE
MUCH EARLIER...WITH TEMPS VARYING FROM LOWER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S
WEST BY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG CAP INDICATED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO HARD TO PICTURE BEING ABLE TO CONTINUE ANY THREAT
OF CONVECTION PAST A SMALL CHANCE MIDDAY FOR EVACUATING HIGH BASED
STORMS ON NOSE OF THE 7-9C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

STRONG PACIFIC NW WAVE WILL START TO KNOCK DOWN THE FLAT RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...DRAGGING A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE I 29 CORRIDOR BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BOUNDARY STRONGLY CAPPED AND CONVERGENCE LACKING...WITH DEEPER
DYNAMICAL LIFT FORCING LAGGING BEHIND WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE. PROSPECT FOR ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE REALLY NOT THERE...WITH JUST
A MINIMAL THREAT FOR A HIGHER BASED SHOWER OR EVEN LESS LIKELY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH DIV Q AXIS SLIPPING SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND
BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS VERY WELL REMOVED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATER AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS THE LEADING
HINT OF LOWER BASED DEVELOPMENT BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.

THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH A LARGE COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL DRIVE BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD...AND OTHER THAN A REMOTE CHANCE FOR A HIGH PLAINS
DEVELOPMENT TO BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA WITH AN ILL-TIMED
WEAK WAVE AROUND FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WILL BE DRY AND QUITE
COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

TRANSITION BACK TOWARD ZONAL TO WEAKLY SOUTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ALONG
WITH MOISTURE CONTENT OF AIR. WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE INDUCING
INCREASE LOWER TO MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LOWER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS START TO MODERATE WITH MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE...
BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MAIN ISSUE FOR TAFS ARE CONVECTION...POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND LOW CLOUDS. THROUGH 06Z WED...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHEAST IN ALL LOCATION IN
THE EVENING. AFTER 06Z...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR TO DAWN. WHILE A STORM IS POSSIBLE IN KFSD
OR KHON...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN SW MN. THEREFORE DID NOT
INCLUDE TSRA IN TAF FOR EITHER SITE. HOWEVER...WITH A 40 TO 50 KT
LOW LEVEL JET FROM SOUTHEAST SD IN SW MN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THU MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. WITH CORE OF THE JET GOING THROUGH THE KFSD AREA...DID
ADD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR SIOUX FALLS...BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO EXAMINE POTENTIAL IN KHON. THE OTHER CONCERN IS
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS SHOW
MOISTURE INCREASING BELOW A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION SO EXPECT CIGS
FROM 1000 TO 2000 FT TO DEVELOP AT KFSD AND KSUX SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. WITH LESS MOISTURE EXPECTED AT KHON...KEPT VFR CONDITIONS
FOR NOW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER




000
FXUS63 KFSD 021723
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1223 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WAVE WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING...GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO
WARM...BUT AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY...DO NOT THINK MIXING WILL
BE AS GOOD. EITHER WAY...MOST GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO LOW GIVEN MODEL 850
AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES...THUS CONTINUED ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. LOOKING FOR UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH
IS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP TONIGHT...INCREASING THETA E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS A
RESULT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THE LOWER LEVELS TO REMAIN CAPPED AS
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ADVECT IN AS WELL. THUS LOOKING LIKE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY END UP BASED AROUND 800 MB OR
SO. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ELEVATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A
HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE LINE. BASED ON LOW LEVEL JET
LOCATION AND ORIENTATION THIS MAKES SENSE AS WELL...SO FOCUSED
POPS IN THIS AREA. THINK ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY JUST REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BETWEEN 3 AM AND 7 AM. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE
WITH INSTABILITY ORIGINATING FROM 800 MB...SUGGESTING OVER 2000
J/KG. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SEEM MORE REASONABLE...WITH 1000
J/KG OR LESS OF ELEVATED CAPE. STORMS WILL BE BASED ABOVE THE BEST
SHEAR AS WELL...SO OTHER THAN MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL...WOULD NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING TOO STRONG THROUGH 12Z. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING OVERNIGHT...WARMED LOWS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LIKELY THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE CWA. NAM SOLUTION REJECTED FOR SEVERAL REASONS...NOT THE
LEAST BEING SOME VERY UNREALISTIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...WHICH
ARE ALLOWING A MUCH FURTHER SOUTH DEVELOPMENT INTO THE APPROACHING
CAP. WILL WATCH MID LEVEL FOCUS FOR THIS CONVECTION PULL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. OTHER ISSUE WITH WEDNESDAY WILL BE
THREAT FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY MORNING TO PERSIST LONGER
INTO THE DAY IN THE EAST TO GREATLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. EAST OF
I 29 LIKELY TO SEE VERY LIMITED SUNSHINE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...
PERHAPS EVEN A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN GOING FORECAST. AREAS TO
THE WEST WILL BE POISED TO HOLD ON TO OR BREAK OUT INTO SUNSHINE
MUCH EARLIER...WITH TEMPS VARYING FROM LOWER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S
WEST BY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG CAP INDICATED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO HARD TO PICTURE BEING ABLE TO CONTINUE ANY THREAT
OF CONVECTION PAST A SMALL CHANCE MIDDAY FOR EVACUATING HIGH BASED
STORMS ON NOSE OF THE 7-9C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

STRONG PACIFIC NW WAVE WILL START TO KNOCK DOWN THE FLAT RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...DRAGGING A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE I 29 CORRIDOR BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BOUNDARY STRONGLY CAPPED AND CONVERGENCE LACKING...WITH DEEPER
DYNAMICAL LIFT FORCING LAGGING BEHIND WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE. PROSPECT FOR ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE REALLY NOT THERE...WITH JUST
A MINIMAL THREAT FOR A HIGHER BASED SHOWER OR EVEN LESS LIKELY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH DIV Q AXIS SLIPPING SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND
BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS VERY WELL REMOVED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATER AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS THE LEADING
HINT OF LOWER BASED DEVELOPMENT BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.

THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH A LARGE COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL DRIVE BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD...AND OTHER THAN A REMOTE CHANCE FOR A HIGH PLAINS
DEVELOPMENT TO BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA WITH AN ILL-TIMED
WEAK WAVE AROUND FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WILL BE DRY AND QUITE
COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

TRANSITION BACK TOWARD ZONAL TO WEAKLY SOUTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ALONG
WITH MOISTURE CONTENT OF AIR. WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE INDUCING
INCREASE LOWER TO MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LOWER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS START TO MODERATE WITH MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE...
BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MAIN ISSUE FOR TAFS ARE CONVECTION...POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND LOW CLOUDS. THROUGH 06Z WED...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHEAST IN ALL LOCATION IN
THE EVENING. AFTER 06Z...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR TO DAWN. WHILE A STORM IS POSSIBLE IN KFSD
OR KHON...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN SW MN. THEREFORE DID NOT
INCLUDE TSRA IN TAF FOR EITHER SITE. HOWEVER...WITH A 40 TO 50 KT
LOW LEVEL JET FROM SOUTHEAST SD IN SW MN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THU MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. WITH CORE OF THE JET GOING THROUGH THE KFSD AREA...DID
ADD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR SIOUX FALLS...BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO EXAMINE POTENTIAL IN KHON. THE OTHER CONCERN IS
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS SHOW
MOISTURE INCREASING BELOW A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION SO EXPECT CIGS
FROM 1000 TO 2000 FT TO DEVELOP AT KFSD AND KSUX SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. WITH LESS MOISTURE EXPECTED AT KHON...KEPT VFR CONDITIONS
FOR NOW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER



000
FXUS63 KUNR 021710
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
AVERAGE. SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS AROUND 90 EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. AS SURFACE LOW
MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. 6-7MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES AND 40KT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS ND/SRN CANADA THURSDAY WITH
THE BEST FORCING REMAINING N/NE OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN...TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH RETURN
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER AIR WILL BRING TEMPS BACK
TO NEAR AVERAGE BY SUNDAY. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPLIT FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN CONUS WHICH SLOWS DOWN THE OVERALL EWD
PROGRESSION. THE RESULT IS DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA WHICH MODELS
ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARD. HAVE DROPPED THE SL CHC POPS EXCEPT OVER
THE BLKHLS. WILL KEEP IN SOME POPS FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM AS
THE PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN WITH THE NEXT TROUGH
CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 021710
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
AVERAGE. SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS AROUND 90 EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. AS SURFACE LOW
MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. 6-7MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES AND 40KT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS ND/SRN CANADA THURSDAY WITH
THE BEST FORCING REMAINING N/NE OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN...TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH RETURN
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER AIR WILL BRING TEMPS BACK
TO NEAR AVERAGE BY SUNDAY. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPLIT FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN CONUS WHICH SLOWS DOWN THE OVERALL EWD
PROGRESSION. THE RESULT IS DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA WHICH MODELS
ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARD. HAVE DROPPED THE SL CHC POPS EXCEPT OVER
THE BLKHLS. WILL KEEP IN SOME POPS FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM AS
THE PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN WITH THE NEXT TROUGH
CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26






000
FXUS63 KABR 021539 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1039 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS FINE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WILL CAUSE A
WEAK LLJ TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ COULD
AFFECT I-29 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION COULD LINGER BEYOND 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THUS WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO CHC POPS.

A STRONG TROUGH...CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 0Z
THURSDAY. WAA ALONG WITH INCREASING LLM WILL SPREAD INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. WITH AN INCREASING EML WITH 700 MB TEMPS EXCEEDING
+11C...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA WHERE
BETTER LLM IS LOCATED. WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

NOT MUCH HAPPENING DURING THE LONG TERM WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR IT TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES
THE WEATHER. ALSO...NOT MUCH FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM. BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA PUSHES EAST AND WARMER SOUTH WINDS RETURN. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY WARM INTO THE MID 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 021144 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
644 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WILL CAUSE A
WEAK LLJ TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ COULD
AFFECT I-29 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION COULD LINGER BEYOND 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THUS WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO CHC POPS.

A STRONG TROUGH...CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 0Z
THURSDAY. WAA ALONG WITH INCREASING LLM WILL SPREAD INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. WITH AN INCREASING EML WITH 700 MB TEMPS EXCEEDING
+11C...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA WHERE
BETTER LLM IS LOCATED. WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NOT MUCH HAPPENING DURING THE LONG TERM WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR IT TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES
THE WEATHER. ALSO...NOT MUCH FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM. BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA PUSHES EAST AND WARMER SOUTH WINDS RETURN. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY WARM INTO THE MID 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S BY MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 021133
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
633 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WAVE WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING...GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO
WARM...BUT AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY...DO NOT THINK MIXING WILL
BE AS GOOD. EITHER WAY...MOST GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO LOW GIVEN MODEL 850
AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES...THUS CONTINUED ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. LOOKING FOR UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH
IS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP TONIGHT...INCREASING THETA E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS A
RESULT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THE LOWER LEVELS TO REMAIN CAPPED AS
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ADVECT IN AS WELL. THUS LOOKING LIKE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY END UP BASED AROUND 800 MB OR
SO. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ELEVATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A
HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE LINE. BASED ON LOW LEVEL JET
LOCATION AND ORIENTATION THIS MAKES SENSE AS WELL...SO FOCUSED
POPS IN THIS AREA. THINK ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY JUST REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BETWEEN 3 AM AND 7 AM. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE
WITH INSTABILITY ORIGINATING FROM 800 MB...SUGGESTING OVER 2000
J/KG. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SEEM MORE REASONABLE...WITH 1000
J/KG OR LESS OF ELEVATED CAPE. STORMS WILL BE BASED ABOVE THE BEST
SHEAR AS WELL...SO OTHER THAN MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL...WOULD NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING TOO STRONG THROUGH 12Z. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING OVERNIGHT...WARMED LOWS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LIKELY THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE CWA. NAM SOLUTION REJECTED FOR SEVERAL REASONS...NOT THE
LEAST BEING SOME VERY UNREALISTIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...WHICH
ARE ALLOWING A MUCH FURTHER SOUTH DEVELOPMENT INTO THE APPROACHING
CAP. WILL WATCH MID LEVEL FOCUS FOR THIS CONVECTION PULL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. OTHER ISSUE WITH WEDNESDAY WILL BE
THREAT FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY MORNING TO PERSIST LONGER
INTO THE DAY IN THE EAST TO GREATLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. EAST OF
I 29 LIKELY TO SEE VERY LIMITED SUNSHINE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...
PERHAPS EVEN A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN GOING FORECAST. AREAS TO
THE WEST WILL BE POISED TO HOLD ON TO OR BREAK OUT INTO SUNSHINE
MUCH EARLIER...WITH TEMPS VARYING FROM LOWER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S
WEST BY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG CAP INDICATED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO HARD TO PICTURE BEING ABLE TO CONTINUE ANY THREAT
OF CONVECTION PAST A SMALL CHANCE MIDDAY FOR EVACUATING HIGH BASED
STORMS ON NOSE OF THE 7-9C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

STRONG PACIFIC NW WAVE WILL START TO KNOCK DOWN THE FLAT RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...DRAGGING A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE I 29 CORRIDOR BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BOUNDARY STRONGLY CAPPED AND CONVERGENCE LACKING...WITH DEEPER
DYNAMICAL LIFT FORCING LAGGING BEHIND WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE. PROSPECT FOR ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE REALLY NOT THERE...WITH JUST
A MINIMAL THREAT FOR A HIGHER BASED SHOWER OR EVEN LESS LIKELY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH DIV Q AXIS SLIPPING SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND
BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS VERY WELL REMOVED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATER AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS THE LEADING
HINT OF LOWER BASED DEVELOPMENT BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.

THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH A LARGE COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL DRIVE BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD...AND OTHER THAN A REMOTE CHANCE FOR A HIGH PLAINS
DEVELOPMENT TO BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA WITH AN ILL-TIMED
WEAK WAVE AROUND FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WILL BE DRY AND QUITE
COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

TRANSITION BACK TOWARD ZONAL TO WEAKLY SOUTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ALONG
WITH MOISTURE CONTENT OF AIR. WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE INDUCING
INCREASE LOWER TO MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LOWER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS START TO MODERATE WITH MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE...
BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. LATER TONIGHT...COULD SEE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A HURON
TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE LINE. HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. ALSO WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT. COULD BE NEAR LLWS AT KHON...BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE IT MAY STAY JUST SHORT. THIS INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTH...AND COULD HAVE
SOME LOW STRATUS OR FOG BY MORNING. ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE PROBABILITY OF THIS THROUGH 12Z IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF
THE TAFS...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 021133
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
633 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WAVE WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING...GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO
WARM...BUT AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY...DO NOT THINK MIXING WILL
BE AS GOOD. EITHER WAY...MOST GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO LOW GIVEN MODEL 850
AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES...THUS CONTINUED ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. LOOKING FOR UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH
IS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP TONIGHT...INCREASING THETA E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS A
RESULT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THE LOWER LEVELS TO REMAIN CAPPED AS
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ADVECT IN AS WELL. THUS LOOKING LIKE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY END UP BASED AROUND 800 MB OR
SO. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ELEVATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A
HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE LINE. BASED ON LOW LEVEL JET
LOCATION AND ORIENTATION THIS MAKES SENSE AS WELL...SO FOCUSED
POPS IN THIS AREA. THINK ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY JUST REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BETWEEN 3 AM AND 7 AM. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE
WITH INSTABILITY ORIGINATING FROM 800 MB...SUGGESTING OVER 2000
J/KG. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SEEM MORE REASONABLE...WITH 1000
J/KG OR LESS OF ELEVATED CAPE. STORMS WILL BE BASED ABOVE THE BEST
SHEAR AS WELL...SO OTHER THAN MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL...WOULD NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING TOO STRONG THROUGH 12Z. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING OVERNIGHT...WARMED LOWS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LIKELY THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE CWA. NAM SOLUTION REJECTED FOR SEVERAL REASONS...NOT THE
LEAST BEING SOME VERY UNREALISTIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...WHICH
ARE ALLOWING A MUCH FURTHER SOUTH DEVELOPMENT INTO THE APPROACHING
CAP. WILL WATCH MID LEVEL FOCUS FOR THIS CONVECTION PULL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. OTHER ISSUE WITH WEDNESDAY WILL BE
THREAT FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY MORNING TO PERSIST LONGER
INTO THE DAY IN THE EAST TO GREATLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. EAST OF
I 29 LIKELY TO SEE VERY LIMITED SUNSHINE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...
PERHAPS EVEN A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN GOING FORECAST. AREAS TO
THE WEST WILL BE POISED TO HOLD ON TO OR BREAK OUT INTO SUNSHINE
MUCH EARLIER...WITH TEMPS VARYING FROM LOWER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S
WEST BY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG CAP INDICATED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO HARD TO PICTURE BEING ABLE TO CONTINUE ANY THREAT
OF CONVECTION PAST A SMALL CHANCE MIDDAY FOR EVACUATING HIGH BASED
STORMS ON NOSE OF THE 7-9C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

STRONG PACIFIC NW WAVE WILL START TO KNOCK DOWN THE FLAT RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...DRAGGING A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE I 29 CORRIDOR BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BOUNDARY STRONGLY CAPPED AND CONVERGENCE LACKING...WITH DEEPER
DYNAMICAL LIFT FORCING LAGGING BEHIND WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE. PROSPECT FOR ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE REALLY NOT THERE...WITH JUST
A MINIMAL THREAT FOR A HIGHER BASED SHOWER OR EVEN LESS LIKELY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH DIV Q AXIS SLIPPING SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND
BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS VERY WELL REMOVED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATER AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS THE LEADING
HINT OF LOWER BASED DEVELOPMENT BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.

THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH A LARGE COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL DRIVE BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD...AND OTHER THAN A REMOTE CHANCE FOR A HIGH PLAINS
DEVELOPMENT TO BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA WITH AN ILL-TIMED
WEAK WAVE AROUND FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WILL BE DRY AND QUITE
COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

TRANSITION BACK TOWARD ZONAL TO WEAKLY SOUTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ALONG
WITH MOISTURE CONTENT OF AIR. WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE INDUCING
INCREASE LOWER TO MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LOWER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS START TO MODERATE WITH MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE...
BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. LATER TONIGHT...COULD SEE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A HURON
TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE LINE. HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. ALSO WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT. COULD BE NEAR LLWS AT KHON...BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE IT MAY STAY JUST SHORT. THIS INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTH...AND COULD HAVE
SOME LOW STRATUS OR FOG BY MORNING. ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE PROBABILITY OF THIS THROUGH 12Z IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF
THE TAFS...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 021133
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
633 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WAVE WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING...GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO
WARM...BUT AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY...DO NOT THINK MIXING WILL
BE AS GOOD. EITHER WAY...MOST GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO LOW GIVEN MODEL 850
AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES...THUS CONTINUED ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. LOOKING FOR UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH
IS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP TONIGHT...INCREASING THETA E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS A
RESULT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THE LOWER LEVELS TO REMAIN CAPPED AS
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ADVECT IN AS WELL. THUS LOOKING LIKE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY END UP BASED AROUND 800 MB OR
SO. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ELEVATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A
HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE LINE. BASED ON LOW LEVEL JET
LOCATION AND ORIENTATION THIS MAKES SENSE AS WELL...SO FOCUSED
POPS IN THIS AREA. THINK ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY JUST REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BETWEEN 3 AM AND 7 AM. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE
WITH INSTABILITY ORIGINATING FROM 800 MB...SUGGESTING OVER 2000
J/KG. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SEEM MORE REASONABLE...WITH 1000
J/KG OR LESS OF ELEVATED CAPE. STORMS WILL BE BASED ABOVE THE BEST
SHEAR AS WELL...SO OTHER THAN MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL...WOULD NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING TOO STRONG THROUGH 12Z. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING OVERNIGHT...WARMED LOWS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LIKELY THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE CWA. NAM SOLUTION REJECTED FOR SEVERAL REASONS...NOT THE
LEAST BEING SOME VERY UNREALISTIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...WHICH
ARE ALLOWING A MUCH FURTHER SOUTH DEVELOPMENT INTO THE APPROACHING
CAP. WILL WATCH MID LEVEL FOCUS FOR THIS CONVECTION PULL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. OTHER ISSUE WITH WEDNESDAY WILL BE
THREAT FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY MORNING TO PERSIST LONGER
INTO THE DAY IN THE EAST TO GREATLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. EAST OF
I 29 LIKELY TO SEE VERY LIMITED SUNSHINE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...
PERHAPS EVEN A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN GOING FORECAST. AREAS TO
THE WEST WILL BE POISED TO HOLD ON TO OR BREAK OUT INTO SUNSHINE
MUCH EARLIER...WITH TEMPS VARYING FROM LOWER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S
WEST BY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG CAP INDICATED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO HARD TO PICTURE BEING ABLE TO CONTINUE ANY THREAT
OF CONVECTION PAST A SMALL CHANCE MIDDAY FOR EVACUATING HIGH BASED
STORMS ON NOSE OF THE 7-9C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

STRONG PACIFIC NW WAVE WILL START TO KNOCK DOWN THE FLAT RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...DRAGGING A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE I 29 CORRIDOR BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BOUNDARY STRONGLY CAPPED AND CONVERGENCE LACKING...WITH DEEPER
DYNAMICAL LIFT FORCING LAGGING BEHIND WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE. PROSPECT FOR ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE REALLY NOT THERE...WITH JUST
A MINIMAL THREAT FOR A HIGHER BASED SHOWER OR EVEN LESS LIKELY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH DIV Q AXIS SLIPPING SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND
BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS VERY WELL REMOVED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATER AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS THE LEADING
HINT OF LOWER BASED DEVELOPMENT BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.

THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH A LARGE COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL DRIVE BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD...AND OTHER THAN A REMOTE CHANCE FOR A HIGH PLAINS
DEVELOPMENT TO BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA WITH AN ILL-TIMED
WEAK WAVE AROUND FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WILL BE DRY AND QUITE
COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

TRANSITION BACK TOWARD ZONAL TO WEAKLY SOUTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ALONG
WITH MOISTURE CONTENT OF AIR. WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE INDUCING
INCREASE LOWER TO MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LOWER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS START TO MODERATE WITH MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE...
BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. LATER TONIGHT...COULD SEE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A HURON
TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE LINE. HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. ALSO WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT. COULD BE NEAR LLWS AT KHON...BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE IT MAY STAY JUST SHORT. THIS INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTH...AND COULD HAVE
SOME LOW STRATUS OR FOG BY MORNING. ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE PROBABILITY OF THIS THROUGH 12Z IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF
THE TAFS...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 021133
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
633 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WAVE WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING...GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO
WARM...BUT AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY...DO NOT THINK MIXING WILL
BE AS GOOD. EITHER WAY...MOST GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO LOW GIVEN MODEL 850
AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES...THUS CONTINUED ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. LOOKING FOR UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH
IS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP TONIGHT...INCREASING THETA E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS A
RESULT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THE LOWER LEVELS TO REMAIN CAPPED AS
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ADVECT IN AS WELL. THUS LOOKING LIKE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY END UP BASED AROUND 800 MB OR
SO. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ELEVATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A
HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE LINE. BASED ON LOW LEVEL JET
LOCATION AND ORIENTATION THIS MAKES SENSE AS WELL...SO FOCUSED
POPS IN THIS AREA. THINK ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY JUST REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BETWEEN 3 AM AND 7 AM. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE
WITH INSTABILITY ORIGINATING FROM 800 MB...SUGGESTING OVER 2000
J/KG. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SEEM MORE REASONABLE...WITH 1000
J/KG OR LESS OF ELEVATED CAPE. STORMS WILL BE BASED ABOVE THE BEST
SHEAR AS WELL...SO OTHER THAN MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL...WOULD NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING TOO STRONG THROUGH 12Z. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING OVERNIGHT...WARMED LOWS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LIKELY THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE CWA. NAM SOLUTION REJECTED FOR SEVERAL REASONS...NOT THE
LEAST BEING SOME VERY UNREALISTIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...WHICH
ARE ALLOWING A MUCH FURTHER SOUTH DEVELOPMENT INTO THE APPROACHING
CAP. WILL WATCH MID LEVEL FOCUS FOR THIS CONVECTION PULL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. OTHER ISSUE WITH WEDNESDAY WILL BE
THREAT FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY MORNING TO PERSIST LONGER
INTO THE DAY IN THE EAST TO GREATLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. EAST OF
I 29 LIKELY TO SEE VERY LIMITED SUNSHINE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...
PERHAPS EVEN A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN GOING FORECAST. AREAS TO
THE WEST WILL BE POISED TO HOLD ON TO OR BREAK OUT INTO SUNSHINE
MUCH EARLIER...WITH TEMPS VARYING FROM LOWER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S
WEST BY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG CAP INDICATED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO HARD TO PICTURE BEING ABLE TO CONTINUE ANY THREAT
OF CONVECTION PAST A SMALL CHANCE MIDDAY FOR EVACUATING HIGH BASED
STORMS ON NOSE OF THE 7-9C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

STRONG PACIFIC NW WAVE WILL START TO KNOCK DOWN THE FLAT RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...DRAGGING A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE I 29 CORRIDOR BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BOUNDARY STRONGLY CAPPED AND CONVERGENCE LACKING...WITH DEEPER
DYNAMICAL LIFT FORCING LAGGING BEHIND WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE. PROSPECT FOR ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE REALLY NOT THERE...WITH JUST
A MINIMAL THREAT FOR A HIGHER BASED SHOWER OR EVEN LESS LIKELY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH DIV Q AXIS SLIPPING SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND
BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS VERY WELL REMOVED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATER AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS THE LEADING
HINT OF LOWER BASED DEVELOPMENT BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.

THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH A LARGE COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL DRIVE BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD...AND OTHER THAN A REMOTE CHANCE FOR A HIGH PLAINS
DEVELOPMENT TO BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA WITH AN ILL-TIMED
WEAK WAVE AROUND FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WILL BE DRY AND QUITE
COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

TRANSITION BACK TOWARD ZONAL TO WEAKLY SOUTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ALONG
WITH MOISTURE CONTENT OF AIR. WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE INDUCING
INCREASE LOWER TO MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LOWER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS START TO MODERATE WITH MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE...
BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. LATER TONIGHT...COULD SEE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A HURON
TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE LINE. HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. ALSO WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT. COULD BE NEAR LLWS AT KHON...BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE IT MAY STAY JUST SHORT. THIS INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTH...AND COULD HAVE
SOME LOW STRATUS OR FOG BY MORNING. ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE PROBABILITY OF THIS THROUGH 12Z IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF
THE TAFS...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 020903
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
403 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WAVE WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING...GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO
WARM...BUT AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY...DO NOT THINK MIXING WILL
BE AS GOOD. EITHER WAY...MOST GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO LOW GIVEN MODEL 850
AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES...THUS CONTINUED ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. LOOKING FOR UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH
IS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP TONIGHT...INCREASING THETA E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS A
RESULT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THE LOWER LEVELS TO REMAIN CAPPED AS
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ADVECT IN AS WELL. THUS LOOKING LIKE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY END UP BASED AROUND 800 MB OR
SO. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ELEVATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A
HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE LINE. BASED ON LOW LEVEL JET
LOCATION AND ORIENTATION THIS MAKES SENSE AS WELL...SO FOCUSED
POPS IN THIS AREA. THINK ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY JUST REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BETWEEN 3 AM AND 7 AM. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE
WITH INSTABILITY ORIGINATING FROM 800 MB...SUGGESTING OVER 2000
J/KG. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SEEM MORE REASONABLE...WITH 1000
J/KG OR LESS OF ELEVATED CAPE. STORMS WILL BE BASED ABOVE THE BEST
SHEAR AS WELL...SO OTHER THAN MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL...WOULD NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING TOO STRONG THROUGH 12Z. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING OVERNIGHT...WARMED LOWS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LIKELY THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE CWA. NAM SOLUTION REJECTED FOR SEVERAL REASONS...NOT THE
LEAST BEING SOME VERY UNREALISTIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...WHICH
ARE ALLOWING A MUCH FURTHER SOUTH DEVELOPMENT INTO THE APPROACHING
CAP. WILL WATCH MID LEVEL FOCUS FOR THIS CONVECTION PULL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. OTHER ISSUE WITH WEDNESDAY WILL BE
THREAT FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY MORNING TO PERSIST LONGER
INTO THE DAY IN THE EAST TO GREATLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. EAST OF
I 29 LIKELY TO SEE VERY LIMITED SUNSHINE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...
PERHAPS EVEN A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN GOING FORECAST. AREAS TO
THE WEST WILL BE POISED TO HOLD ON TO OR BREAK OUT INTO SUNSHINE
MUCH EARLIER...WITH TEMPS VARYING FROM LOWER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S
WEST BY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG CAP INDICATED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO HARD TO PICTURE BEING ABLE TO CONTINUE ANY THREAT
OF CONVECTION PAST A SMALL CHANCE MIDDAY FOR EVACUATING HIGH BASED
STORMS ON NOSE OF THE 7-9C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

STRONG PACIFIC NW WAVE WILL START TO KNOCK DOWN THE FLAT RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...DRAGGING A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE I 29 CORRIDOR BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BOUNDARY STRONGLY CAPPED AND CONVERGENCE LACKING...WITH DEEPER
DYNAMICAL LIFT FORCING LAGGING BEHIND WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE. PROSPECT FOR ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE REALLY NOT THERE...WITH JUST
A MINIMAL THREAT FOR A HIGHER BASED SHOWER OR EVEN LESS LIKELY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH DIV Q AXIS SLIPPING SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND
BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS VERY WELL REMOVED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATER AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS THE LEADING
HINT OF LOWER BASED DEVELOPMENT BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.

THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH A LARGE COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL DRIVE BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD...AND OTHER THAN A REMOTE CHANCE FOR A HIGH PLAINS
DEVELOPMENT TO BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA WITH AN ILL-TIMED
WEAK WAVE AROUND FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WILL BE DRY AND QUITE
COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

TRANSITION BACK TOWARD ZONAL TO WEAKLY SOUTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ALONG
WITH MOISTURE CONTENT OF AIR. WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE INDUCING
INCREASE LOWER TO MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LOWER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS START TO MODERATE WITH MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE...
BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING THE TAF SITES IN THE EVENING
HOURS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER AT NIGHT AROUND KFSD
AND KSUX AFTER SHOWERS END WITH LIGHT WINDS SITUATED ACROSS THE
AREA.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 020903
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
403 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WAVE WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING...GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO
WARM...BUT AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY...DO NOT THINK MIXING WILL
BE AS GOOD. EITHER WAY...MOST GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO LOW GIVEN MODEL 850
AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES...THUS CONTINUED ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. LOOKING FOR UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH
IS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP TONIGHT...INCREASING THETA E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS A
RESULT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THE LOWER LEVELS TO REMAIN CAPPED AS
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ADVECT IN AS WELL. THUS LOOKING LIKE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY END UP BASED AROUND 800 MB OR
SO. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ELEVATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A
HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE LINE. BASED ON LOW LEVEL JET
LOCATION AND ORIENTATION THIS MAKES SENSE AS WELL...SO FOCUSED
POPS IN THIS AREA. THINK ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY JUST REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BETWEEN 3 AM AND 7 AM. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE
WITH INSTABILITY ORIGINATING FROM 800 MB...SUGGESTING OVER 2000
J/KG. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SEEM MORE REASONABLE...WITH 1000
J/KG OR LESS OF ELEVATED CAPE. STORMS WILL BE BASED ABOVE THE BEST
SHEAR AS WELL...SO OTHER THAN MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL...WOULD NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING TOO STRONG THROUGH 12Z. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING OVERNIGHT...WARMED LOWS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LIKELY THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE CWA. NAM SOLUTION REJECTED FOR SEVERAL REASONS...NOT THE
LEAST BEING SOME VERY UNREALISTIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...WHICH
ARE ALLOWING A MUCH FURTHER SOUTH DEVELOPMENT INTO THE APPROACHING
CAP. WILL WATCH MID LEVEL FOCUS FOR THIS CONVECTION PULL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. OTHER ISSUE WITH WEDNESDAY WILL BE
THREAT FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY MORNING TO PERSIST LONGER
INTO THE DAY IN THE EAST TO GREATLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. EAST OF
I 29 LIKELY TO SEE VERY LIMITED SUNSHINE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...
PERHAPS EVEN A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN GOING FORECAST. AREAS TO
THE WEST WILL BE POISED TO HOLD ON TO OR BREAK OUT INTO SUNSHINE
MUCH EARLIER...WITH TEMPS VARYING FROM LOWER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S
WEST BY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG CAP INDICATED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO HARD TO PICTURE BEING ABLE TO CONTINUE ANY THREAT
OF CONVECTION PAST A SMALL CHANCE MIDDAY FOR EVACUATING HIGH BASED
STORMS ON NOSE OF THE 7-9C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

STRONG PACIFIC NW WAVE WILL START TO KNOCK DOWN THE FLAT RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...DRAGGING A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE I 29 CORRIDOR BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BOUNDARY STRONGLY CAPPED AND CONVERGENCE LACKING...WITH DEEPER
DYNAMICAL LIFT FORCING LAGGING BEHIND WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE. PROSPECT FOR ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE REALLY NOT THERE...WITH JUST
A MINIMAL THREAT FOR A HIGHER BASED SHOWER OR EVEN LESS LIKELY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH DIV Q AXIS SLIPPING SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND
BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS VERY WELL REMOVED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATER AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS THE LEADING
HINT OF LOWER BASED DEVELOPMENT BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.

THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH A LARGE COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL DRIVE BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD...AND OTHER THAN A REMOTE CHANCE FOR A HIGH PLAINS
DEVELOPMENT TO BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA WITH AN ILL-TIMED
WEAK WAVE AROUND FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WILL BE DRY AND QUITE
COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

TRANSITION BACK TOWARD ZONAL TO WEAKLY SOUTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ALONG
WITH MOISTURE CONTENT OF AIR. WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE INDUCING
INCREASE LOWER TO MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LOWER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS START TO MODERATE WITH MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE...
BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING THE TAF SITES IN THE EVENING
HOURS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER AT NIGHT AROUND KFSD
AND KSUX AFTER SHOWERS END WITH LIGHT WINDS SITUATED ACROSS THE
AREA.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 020903
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
403 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WAVE WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING...GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO
WARM...BUT AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY...DO NOT THINK MIXING WILL
BE AS GOOD. EITHER WAY...MOST GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO LOW GIVEN MODEL 850
AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES...THUS CONTINUED ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. LOOKING FOR UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH
IS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP TONIGHT...INCREASING THETA E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS A
RESULT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THE LOWER LEVELS TO REMAIN CAPPED AS
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ADVECT IN AS WELL. THUS LOOKING LIKE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY END UP BASED AROUND 800 MB OR
SO. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ELEVATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A
HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE LINE. BASED ON LOW LEVEL JET
LOCATION AND ORIENTATION THIS MAKES SENSE AS WELL...SO FOCUSED
POPS IN THIS AREA. THINK ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY JUST REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BETWEEN 3 AM AND 7 AM. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE
WITH INSTABILITY ORIGINATING FROM 800 MB...SUGGESTING OVER 2000
J/KG. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SEEM MORE REASONABLE...WITH 1000
J/KG OR LESS OF ELEVATED CAPE. STORMS WILL BE BASED ABOVE THE BEST
SHEAR AS WELL...SO OTHER THAN MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL...WOULD NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING TOO STRONG THROUGH 12Z. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING OVERNIGHT...WARMED LOWS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LIKELY THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE CWA. NAM SOLUTION REJECTED FOR SEVERAL REASONS...NOT THE
LEAST BEING SOME VERY UNREALISTIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...WHICH
ARE ALLOWING A MUCH FURTHER SOUTH DEVELOPMENT INTO THE APPROACHING
CAP. WILL WATCH MID LEVEL FOCUS FOR THIS CONVECTION PULL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. OTHER ISSUE WITH WEDNESDAY WILL BE
THREAT FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY MORNING TO PERSIST LONGER
INTO THE DAY IN THE EAST TO GREATLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. EAST OF
I 29 LIKELY TO SEE VERY LIMITED SUNSHINE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...
PERHAPS EVEN A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN GOING FORECAST. AREAS TO
THE WEST WILL BE POISED TO HOLD ON TO OR BREAK OUT INTO SUNSHINE
MUCH EARLIER...WITH TEMPS VARYING FROM LOWER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S
WEST BY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG CAP INDICATED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO HARD TO PICTURE BEING ABLE TO CONTINUE ANY THREAT
OF CONVECTION PAST A SMALL CHANCE MIDDAY FOR EVACUATING HIGH BASED
STORMS ON NOSE OF THE 7-9C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

STRONG PACIFIC NW WAVE WILL START TO KNOCK DOWN THE FLAT RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...DRAGGING A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE I 29 CORRIDOR BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BOUNDARY STRONGLY CAPPED AND CONVERGENCE LACKING...WITH DEEPER
DYNAMICAL LIFT FORCING LAGGING BEHIND WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE. PROSPECT FOR ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE REALLY NOT THERE...WITH JUST
A MINIMAL THREAT FOR A HIGHER BASED SHOWER OR EVEN LESS LIKELY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH DIV Q AXIS SLIPPING SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND
BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS VERY WELL REMOVED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATER AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS THE LEADING
HINT OF LOWER BASED DEVELOPMENT BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.

THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH A LARGE COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL DRIVE BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD...AND OTHER THAN A REMOTE CHANCE FOR A HIGH PLAINS
DEVELOPMENT TO BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA WITH AN ILL-TIMED
WEAK WAVE AROUND FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WILL BE DRY AND QUITE
COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

TRANSITION BACK TOWARD ZONAL TO WEAKLY SOUTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ALONG
WITH MOISTURE CONTENT OF AIR. WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE INDUCING
INCREASE LOWER TO MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LOWER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS START TO MODERATE WITH MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE...
BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING THE TAF SITES IN THE EVENING
HOURS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER AT NIGHT AROUND KFSD
AND KSUX AFTER SHOWERS END WITH LIGHT WINDS SITUATED ACROSS THE
AREA.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 020903
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
403 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WAVE WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING...GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO
WARM...BUT AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY...DO NOT THINK MIXING WILL
BE AS GOOD. EITHER WAY...MOST GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO LOW GIVEN MODEL 850
AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES...THUS CONTINUED ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. LOOKING FOR UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH
IS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP TONIGHT...INCREASING THETA E ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS A
RESULT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THE LOWER LEVELS TO REMAIN CAPPED AS
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ADVECT IN AS WELL. THUS LOOKING LIKE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY END UP BASED AROUND 800 MB OR
SO. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ELEVATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A
HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE LINE. BASED ON LOW LEVEL JET
LOCATION AND ORIENTATION THIS MAKES SENSE AS WELL...SO FOCUSED
POPS IN THIS AREA. THINK ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY JUST REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BETWEEN 3 AM AND 7 AM. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE
WITH INSTABILITY ORIGINATING FROM 800 MB...SUGGESTING OVER 2000
J/KG. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SEEM MORE REASONABLE...WITH 1000
J/KG OR LESS OF ELEVATED CAPE. STORMS WILL BE BASED ABOVE THE BEST
SHEAR AS WELL...SO OTHER THAN MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL...WOULD NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING TOO STRONG THROUGH 12Z. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING OVERNIGHT...WARMED LOWS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LIKELY THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE CWA. NAM SOLUTION REJECTED FOR SEVERAL REASONS...NOT THE
LEAST BEING SOME VERY UNREALISTIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...WHICH
ARE ALLOWING A MUCH FURTHER SOUTH DEVELOPMENT INTO THE APPROACHING
CAP. WILL WATCH MID LEVEL FOCUS FOR THIS CONVECTION PULL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. OTHER ISSUE WITH WEDNESDAY WILL BE
THREAT FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY MORNING TO PERSIST LONGER
INTO THE DAY IN THE EAST TO GREATLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. EAST OF
I 29 LIKELY TO SEE VERY LIMITED SUNSHINE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...
PERHAPS EVEN A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN GOING FORECAST. AREAS TO
THE WEST WILL BE POISED TO HOLD ON TO OR BREAK OUT INTO SUNSHINE
MUCH EARLIER...WITH TEMPS VARYING FROM LOWER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S
WEST BY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG CAP INDICATED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO HARD TO PICTURE BEING ABLE TO CONTINUE ANY THREAT
OF CONVECTION PAST A SMALL CHANCE MIDDAY FOR EVACUATING HIGH BASED
STORMS ON NOSE OF THE 7-9C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

STRONG PACIFIC NW WAVE WILL START TO KNOCK DOWN THE FLAT RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...DRAGGING A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE I 29 CORRIDOR BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BOUNDARY STRONGLY CAPPED AND CONVERGENCE LACKING...WITH DEEPER
DYNAMICAL LIFT FORCING LAGGING BEHIND WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE. PROSPECT FOR ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE REALLY NOT THERE...WITH JUST
A MINIMAL THREAT FOR A HIGHER BASED SHOWER OR EVEN LESS LIKELY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH DIV Q AXIS SLIPPING SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND
BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS VERY WELL REMOVED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATER AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS THE LEADING
HINT OF LOWER BASED DEVELOPMENT BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.

THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH A LARGE COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL DRIVE BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD...AND OTHER THAN A REMOTE CHANCE FOR A HIGH PLAINS
DEVELOPMENT TO BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA WITH AN ILL-TIMED
WEAK WAVE AROUND FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WILL BE DRY AND QUITE
COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

TRANSITION BACK TOWARD ZONAL TO WEAKLY SOUTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ALONG
WITH MOISTURE CONTENT OF AIR. WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE INDUCING
INCREASE LOWER TO MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LOWER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS START TO MODERATE WITH MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE...
BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING THE TAF SITES IN THE EVENING
HOURS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER AT NIGHT AROUND KFSD
AND KSUX AFTER SHOWERS END WITH LIGHT WINDS SITUATED ACROSS THE
AREA.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KABR 020848
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WILL CAUSE A
WEAK LLJ TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ COULD
AFFECT I-29 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION COULD LINGER BEYOND 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THUS WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO CHC POPS.

A STRONG TROUGH...CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 0Z
THURSDAY. WAA ALONG WITH INCREASING LLM WILL SPREAD INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. WITH AN INCREASING EML WITH 700 MB TEMPS EXCEEDING
+11C...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA WHERE
BETTER LLM IS LOCATED. WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NOT MUCH HAPPENING DURING THE LONG TERM WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR IT TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES
THE WEATHER. ALSO...NOT MUCH FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM. BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA PUSHES EAST AND WARMER SOUTH WINDS RETURN. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY WARM INTO THE MID 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...SOME FORM OF LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WIND
SHOULD BE PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME GUSTINESS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 020848
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WILL CAUSE A
WEAK LLJ TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ COULD
AFFECT I-29 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION COULD LINGER BEYOND 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THUS WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO CHC POPS.

A STRONG TROUGH...CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 0Z
THURSDAY. WAA ALONG WITH INCREASING LLM WILL SPREAD INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. WITH AN INCREASING EML WITH 700 MB TEMPS EXCEEDING
+11C...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA WHERE
BETTER LLM IS LOCATED. WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NOT MUCH HAPPENING DURING THE LONG TERM WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR IT TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES
THE WEATHER. ALSO...NOT MUCH FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM. BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA PUSHES EAST AND WARMER SOUTH WINDS RETURN. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY WARM INTO THE MID 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...SOME FORM OF LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WIND
SHOULD BE PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME GUSTINESS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 020848
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WILL CAUSE A
WEAK LLJ TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ COULD
AFFECT I-29 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION COULD LINGER BEYOND 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THUS WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO CHC POPS.

A STRONG TROUGH...CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 0Z
THURSDAY. WAA ALONG WITH INCREASING LLM WILL SPREAD INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. WITH AN INCREASING EML WITH 700 MB TEMPS EXCEEDING
+11C...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA WHERE
BETTER LLM IS LOCATED. WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NOT MUCH HAPPENING DURING THE LONG TERM WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR IT TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES
THE WEATHER. ALSO...NOT MUCH FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM. BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA PUSHES EAST AND WARMER SOUTH WINDS RETURN. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY WARM INTO THE MID 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...SOME FORM OF LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WIND
SHOULD BE PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME GUSTINESS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 020848
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WILL CAUSE A
WEAK LLJ TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ COULD
AFFECT I-29 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION COULD LINGER BEYOND 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THUS WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO CHC POPS.

A STRONG TROUGH...CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 0Z
THURSDAY. WAA ALONG WITH INCREASING LLM WILL SPREAD INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. WITH AN INCREASING EML WITH 700 MB TEMPS EXCEEDING
+11C...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA WHERE
BETTER LLM IS LOCATED. WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NOT MUCH HAPPENING DURING THE LONG TERM WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR IT TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES
THE WEATHER. ALSO...NOT MUCH FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM. BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA PUSHES EAST AND WARMER SOUTH WINDS RETURN. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY WARM INTO THE MID 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...SOME FORM OF LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WIND
SHOULD BE PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME GUSTINESS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KUNR 020823
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
223 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
AVERAGE. SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS AROUND 90 EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. AS SURFACE LOW
MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. 6-7MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES AND 40KT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS ND/SRN CANADA THURSDAY WITH
THE BEST FORCING REMAINING N/NE OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN...TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH RETURN
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER AIR WILL BRING TEMPS BACK
TO NEAR AVERAGE BY SUNDAY. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPLIT FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN CONUS WHICH SLOWS DOWN THE OVERALL EWD
PROGRESSION. THE RESULT IS DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA WHICH MODELS
ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARD. HAVE DROPPED THE SL CHC POPS EXCEPT OVER
THE BLKHLS. WILL KEEP IN SOME POPS FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM AS
THE PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN WITH THE NEXT TROUGH
CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KUNR 020823
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
223 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
AVERAGE. SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS AROUND 90 EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. AS SURFACE LOW
MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. 6-7MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES AND 40KT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS ND/SRN CANADA THURSDAY WITH
THE BEST FORCING REMAINING N/NE OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN...TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH RETURN
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER AIR WILL BRING TEMPS BACK
TO NEAR AVERAGE BY SUNDAY. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPLIT FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN CONUS WHICH SLOWS DOWN THE OVERALL EWD
PROGRESSION. THE RESULT IS DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA WHICH MODELS
ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARD. HAVE DROPPED THE SL CHC POPS EXCEPT OVER
THE BLKHLS. WILL KEEP IN SOME POPS FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM AS
THE PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN WITH THE NEXT TROUGH
CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KUNR 020823
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
223 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
AVERAGE. SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS AROUND 90 EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. AS SURFACE LOW
MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. 6-7MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES AND 40KT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS ND/SRN CANADA THURSDAY WITH
THE BEST FORCING REMAINING N/NE OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN...TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH RETURN
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER AIR WILL BRING TEMPS BACK
TO NEAR AVERAGE BY SUNDAY. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPLIT FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN CONUS WHICH SLOWS DOWN THE OVERALL EWD
PROGRESSION. THE RESULT IS DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA WHICH MODELS
ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARD. HAVE DROPPED THE SL CHC POPS EXCEPT OVER
THE BLKHLS. WILL KEEP IN SOME POPS FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM AS
THE PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN WITH THE NEXT TROUGH
CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KUNR 020823
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
223 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
AVERAGE. SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS AROUND 90 EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. AS SURFACE LOW
MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. 6-7MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES AND 40KT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS ND/SRN CANADA THURSDAY WITH
THE BEST FORCING REMAINING N/NE OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN...TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH RETURN
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER AIR WILL BRING TEMPS BACK
TO NEAR AVERAGE BY SUNDAY. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPLIT FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN CONUS WHICH SLOWS DOWN THE OVERALL EWD
PROGRESSION. THE RESULT IS DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA WHICH MODELS
ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARD. HAVE DROPPED THE SL CHC POPS EXCEPT OVER
THE BLKHLS. WILL KEEP IN SOME POPS FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM AS
THE PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN WITH THE NEXT TROUGH
CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KUNR 020528
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1128 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM ERN WY INTO WRN SD...WITH
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW BUILDING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE
SFC...WEAK CDFNT ASSOCD WITH SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL BUT
SCNTRL SD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO ERN MT/ERN WY. SCT
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWFA DUE TO SHORT WAVE.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST OF THE CWFA THIS
EVENING BRINGING SHRA/TSRA TO AN END...AND CLEARING SKIES LATER
TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE
EVENING.

TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL BRING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE CONUS
FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS WED/THU. MODELS SHOW DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST FORCING AND BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE CWA...THOUGH FAR NWRN SD COULD SEE SOME PRECIP CLIP THE AREA
WED NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WED/THU
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WED WILL GIVE
WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS THU. BEYOND THU THERE ARE SOME DIFFS IN
MODELS AS A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...IN THE MEAN THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE SCNTRL-SERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING PERIODIC SHORT-
WAVE TROFS ACROSS THE CWA...ALBEIT WITH LIMITED FORCING AND
MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE PERIODS WITH THE
MOST CONSISTENT TIMING OF WAVES. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PAC NW UPPER TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 020528
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1128 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM ERN WY INTO WRN SD...WITH
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW BUILDING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE
SFC...WEAK CDFNT ASSOCD WITH SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL BUT
SCNTRL SD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO ERN MT/ERN WY. SCT
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWFA DUE TO SHORT WAVE.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST OF THE CWFA THIS
EVENING BRINGING SHRA/TSRA TO AN END...AND CLEARING SKIES LATER
TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE
EVENING.

TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL BRING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE CONUS
FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS WED/THU. MODELS SHOW DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST FORCING AND BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE CWA...THOUGH FAR NWRN SD COULD SEE SOME PRECIP CLIP THE AREA
WED NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WED/THU
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WED WILL GIVE
WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS THU. BEYOND THU THERE ARE SOME DIFFS IN
MODELS AS A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...IN THE MEAN THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE SCNTRL-SERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING PERIODIC SHORT-
WAVE TROFS ACROSS THE CWA...ALBEIT WITH LIMITED FORCING AND
MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE PERIODS WITH THE
MOST CONSISTENT TIMING OF WAVES. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PAC NW UPPER TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...JC






000
FXUS63 KABR 020222 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
922 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
HAD A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP AN HOUR OR
TWO AGO WHEN TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDED OUT OVER FAR
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. THAT CONVECTION HAS ALSO FIZZLED
OUT...WITH JUST A COUPLE SHOWERS/STORMS LEFT NOW OVER THE CWA.
OVERALL...TEMPS/WINDS APPEAR ON TRACK RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO SEE SKIES CLEARING OFF SOON AS WELL.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT
RANGE. FOR TNT IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LATE
AFTN/EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MLCAPES AROUND
1K...RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE TO NO
CAP AND APPROACHING S/W...SUSPECT WILL SEE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOP
AND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET. PROBABLY NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION TO
THE ACTIVITY GIVEN LACK OF ANY DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BUT THAT
SAID THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG GFS/NAM FAVORING THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF STATE COVERAGE-WISE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DECENT MIXING GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE/DRY
ATMOSPHERE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE LLJ GETS CRANKED
UP OVER ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN CWA. HI RES AND LOW RES MODELS A
LIKE HAVE BEEN HINTING AT ELEVATED LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY FROM THE
JAMES VALLEY EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SUCH
IN THE FORECAST. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM
KICKS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL ADVECT
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EAST ACROSS THE CWA A HEAD OF THAT
SYSTEM...PRODUCING A DECENT CAP IN THE PROCESS. ANY MCS THAT FORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY WELL STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY ABOUT AVERAGE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
POPS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NORTHEAST
CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY TO THE EAST OF SFC
FRONT...OTHERWISE EXPECT THEM TO AVERAGE OUT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO MINNESOTA ON
THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN. SFC HIGH WILL THEN BE
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO C. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE
40S FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARMER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD
ONCE AGAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION ARE BEGINNING TO
FIZZLE OUT AND HAVE PULLED MENTION OF THEM FROM THE TAFS...GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY STORMS WITHIN 30 MILES OF A TERMINAL. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...SOME FORM OF LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE
PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 020222 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
922 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
HAD A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP AN HOUR OR
TWO AGO WHEN TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDED OUT OVER FAR
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. THAT CONVECTION HAS ALSO FIZZLED
OUT...WITH JUST A COUPLE SHOWERS/STORMS LEFT NOW OVER THE CWA.
OVERALL...TEMPS/WINDS APPEAR ON TRACK RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO SEE SKIES CLEARING OFF SOON AS WELL.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT
RANGE. FOR TNT IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LATE
AFTN/EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MLCAPES AROUND
1K...RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE TO NO
CAP AND APPROACHING S/W...SUSPECT WILL SEE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOP
AND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET. PROBABLY NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION TO
THE ACTIVITY GIVEN LACK OF ANY DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BUT THAT
SAID THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG GFS/NAM FAVORING THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF STATE COVERAGE-WISE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DECENT MIXING GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE/DRY
ATMOSPHERE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE LLJ GETS CRANKED
UP OVER ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN CWA. HI RES AND LOW RES MODELS A
LIKE HAVE BEEN HINTING AT ELEVATED LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY FROM THE
JAMES VALLEY EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SUCH
IN THE FORECAST. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM
KICKS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL ADVECT
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EAST ACROSS THE CWA A HEAD OF THAT
SYSTEM...PRODUCING A DECENT CAP IN THE PROCESS. ANY MCS THAT FORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY WELL STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY ABOUT AVERAGE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
POPS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NORTHEAST
CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY TO THE EAST OF SFC
FRONT...OTHERWISE EXPECT THEM TO AVERAGE OUT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO MINNESOTA ON
THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN. SFC HIGH WILL THEN BE
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO C. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE
40S FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARMER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD
ONCE AGAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION ARE BEGINNING TO
FIZZLE OUT AND HAVE PULLED MENTION OF THEM FROM THE TAFS...GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY STORMS WITHIN 30 MILES OF A TERMINAL. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...SOME FORM OF LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE
PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 020222 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
922 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
HAD A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP AN HOUR OR
TWO AGO WHEN TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDED OUT OVER FAR
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. THAT CONVECTION HAS ALSO FIZZLED
OUT...WITH JUST A COUPLE SHOWERS/STORMS LEFT NOW OVER THE CWA.
OVERALL...TEMPS/WINDS APPEAR ON TRACK RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO SEE SKIES CLEARING OFF SOON AS WELL.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT
RANGE. FOR TNT IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LATE
AFTN/EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MLCAPES AROUND
1K...RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE TO NO
CAP AND APPROACHING S/W...SUSPECT WILL SEE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOP
AND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET. PROBABLY NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION TO
THE ACTIVITY GIVEN LACK OF ANY DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BUT THAT
SAID THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG GFS/NAM FAVORING THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF STATE COVERAGE-WISE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DECENT MIXING GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE/DRY
ATMOSPHERE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE LLJ GETS CRANKED
UP OVER ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN CWA. HI RES AND LOW RES MODELS A
LIKE HAVE BEEN HINTING AT ELEVATED LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY FROM THE
JAMES VALLEY EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SUCH
IN THE FORECAST. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM
KICKS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL ADVECT
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EAST ACROSS THE CWA A HEAD OF THAT
SYSTEM...PRODUCING A DECENT CAP IN THE PROCESS. ANY MCS THAT FORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY WELL STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY ABOUT AVERAGE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
POPS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NORTHEAST
CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY TO THE EAST OF SFC
FRONT...OTHERWISE EXPECT THEM TO AVERAGE OUT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO MINNESOTA ON
THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN. SFC HIGH WILL THEN BE
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO C. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE
40S FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARMER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD
ONCE AGAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION ARE BEGINNING TO
FIZZLE OUT AND HAVE PULLED MENTION OF THEM FROM THE TAFS...GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY STORMS WITHIN 30 MILES OF A TERMINAL. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...SOME FORM OF LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE
PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 020222 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
922 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
HAD A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP AN HOUR OR
TWO AGO WHEN TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDED OUT OVER FAR
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. THAT CONVECTION HAS ALSO FIZZLED
OUT...WITH JUST A COUPLE SHOWERS/STORMS LEFT NOW OVER THE CWA.
OVERALL...TEMPS/WINDS APPEAR ON TRACK RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO SEE SKIES CLEARING OFF SOON AS WELL.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT
RANGE. FOR TNT IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LATE
AFTN/EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MLCAPES AROUND
1K...RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE TO NO
CAP AND APPROACHING S/W...SUSPECT WILL SEE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOP
AND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET. PROBABLY NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION TO
THE ACTIVITY GIVEN LACK OF ANY DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BUT THAT
SAID THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG GFS/NAM FAVORING THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF STATE COVERAGE-WISE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DECENT MIXING GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE/DRY
ATMOSPHERE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE LLJ GETS CRANKED
UP OVER ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN CWA. HI RES AND LOW RES MODELS A
LIKE HAVE BEEN HINTING AT ELEVATED LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY FROM THE
JAMES VALLEY EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SUCH
IN THE FORECAST. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM
KICKS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL ADVECT
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EAST ACROSS THE CWA A HEAD OF THAT
SYSTEM...PRODUCING A DECENT CAP IN THE PROCESS. ANY MCS THAT FORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY WELL STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY ABOUT AVERAGE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
POPS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NORTHEAST
CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY TO THE EAST OF SFC
FRONT...OTHERWISE EXPECT THEM TO AVERAGE OUT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO MINNESOTA ON
THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN. SFC HIGH WILL THEN BE
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO C. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE
40S FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARMER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD
ONCE AGAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION ARE BEGINNING TO
FIZZLE OUT AND HAVE PULLED MENTION OF THEM FROM THE TAFS...GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY STORMS WITHIN 30 MILES OF A TERMINAL. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...SOME FORM OF LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE
PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 012350 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
650 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT
RANGE. FOR TNT IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LATE
AFTN/EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MLCAPES AROUND
1K...RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE TO NO
CAP AND APPROACHING S/W...SUSPECT WILL SEE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOP
AND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET. PROBABLY NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION TO
THE ACTIVITY GIVEN LACK OF ANY DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BUT THAT
SAID THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG GFS/NAM FAVORING THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF STATE COVERAGE-WISE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DECENT MIXING GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE/DRY
ATMOSPHERE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE LLJ GETS CRANKED
UP OVER ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN CWA. HI RES AND LOW RES MODELS A
LIKE HAVE BEEN HINTING AT ELEVATED LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY FROM THE
JAMES VALLEY EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SUCH
IN THE FORECAST. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM
KICKS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL ADVECT
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EAST ACROSS THE CWA A HEAD OF THAT
SYSTEM...PRODUCING A DECENT CAP IN THE PROCESS. ANY MCS THAT FORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY WELL STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY ABOUT AVERAGE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
POPS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NORTHEAST
CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY TO THE EAST OF SFC
FRONT...OTHERWISE EXPECT THEM TO AVERAGE OUT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO MINNESOTA ON
THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN. SFC HIGH WILL THEN BE
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO C. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE
40S FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARMER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD
ONCE AGAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION ARE BEGINNING TO
FIZZLE OUT AND HAVE PULLED MENTION OF THEM FROM THE TAFS...GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY STORMS WITHIN 30 MILES OF A TERMINAL. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...SOME FORM OF LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE
PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 012350 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
650 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT
RANGE. FOR TNT IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LATE
AFTN/EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MLCAPES AROUND
1K...RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE TO NO
CAP AND APPROACHING S/W...SUSPECT WILL SEE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOP
AND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET. PROBABLY NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION TO
THE ACTIVITY GIVEN LACK OF ANY DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BUT THAT
SAID THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG GFS/NAM FAVORING THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF STATE COVERAGE-WISE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DECENT MIXING GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE/DRY
ATMOSPHERE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE LLJ GETS CRANKED
UP OVER ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN CWA. HI RES AND LOW RES MODELS A
LIKE HAVE BEEN HINTING AT ELEVATED LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY FROM THE
JAMES VALLEY EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SUCH
IN THE FORECAST. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM
KICKS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL ADVECT
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EAST ACROSS THE CWA A HEAD OF THAT
SYSTEM...PRODUCING A DECENT CAP IN THE PROCESS. ANY MCS THAT FORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY WELL STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY ABOUT AVERAGE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
POPS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NORTHEAST
CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY TO THE EAST OF SFC
FRONT...OTHERWISE EXPECT THEM TO AVERAGE OUT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO MINNESOTA ON
THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN. SFC HIGH WILL THEN BE
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO C. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE
40S FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARMER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD
ONCE AGAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION ARE BEGINNING TO
FIZZLE OUT AND HAVE PULLED MENTION OF THEM FROM THE TAFS...GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY STORMS WITHIN 30 MILES OF A TERMINAL. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...SOME FORM OF LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE
PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 012350 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
650 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT
RANGE. FOR TNT IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LATE
AFTN/EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MLCAPES AROUND
1K...RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE TO NO
CAP AND APPROACHING S/W...SUSPECT WILL SEE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOP
AND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET. PROBABLY NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION TO
THE ACTIVITY GIVEN LACK OF ANY DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BUT THAT
SAID THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG GFS/NAM FAVORING THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF STATE COVERAGE-WISE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DECENT MIXING GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE/DRY
ATMOSPHERE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE LLJ GETS CRANKED
UP OVER ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN CWA. HI RES AND LOW RES MODELS A
LIKE HAVE BEEN HINTING AT ELEVATED LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY FROM THE
JAMES VALLEY EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SUCH
IN THE FORECAST. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM
KICKS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL ADVECT
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EAST ACROSS THE CWA A HEAD OF THAT
SYSTEM...PRODUCING A DECENT CAP IN THE PROCESS. ANY MCS THAT FORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY WELL STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY ABOUT AVERAGE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
POPS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NORTHEAST
CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY TO THE EAST OF SFC
FRONT...OTHERWISE EXPECT THEM TO AVERAGE OUT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO MINNESOTA ON
THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN. SFC HIGH WILL THEN BE
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO C. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE
40S FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARMER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD
ONCE AGAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION ARE BEGINNING TO
FIZZLE OUT AND HAVE PULLED MENTION OF THEM FROM THE TAFS...GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY STORMS WITHIN 30 MILES OF A TERMINAL. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...SOME FORM OF LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE
PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 012350 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
650 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT
RANGE. FOR TNT IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LATE
AFTN/EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MLCAPES AROUND
1K...RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE TO NO
CAP AND APPROACHING S/W...SUSPECT WILL SEE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOP
AND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET. PROBABLY NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION TO
THE ACTIVITY GIVEN LACK OF ANY DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BUT THAT
SAID THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG GFS/NAM FAVORING THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF STATE COVERAGE-WISE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DECENT MIXING GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE/DRY
ATMOSPHERE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE LLJ GETS CRANKED
UP OVER ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN CWA. HI RES AND LOW RES MODELS A
LIKE HAVE BEEN HINTING AT ELEVATED LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY FROM THE
JAMES VALLEY EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SUCH
IN THE FORECAST. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM
KICKS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL ADVECT
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EAST ACROSS THE CWA A HEAD OF THAT
SYSTEM...PRODUCING A DECENT CAP IN THE PROCESS. ANY MCS THAT FORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY WELL STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY ABOUT AVERAGE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
POPS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NORTHEAST
CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY TO THE EAST OF SFC
FRONT...OTHERWISE EXPECT THEM TO AVERAGE OUT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO MINNESOTA ON
THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN. SFC HIGH WILL THEN BE
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO C. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE
40S FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARMER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD
ONCE AGAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION ARE BEGINNING TO
FIZZLE OUT AND HAVE PULLED MENTION OF THEM FROM THE TAFS...GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY STORMS WITHIN 30 MILES OF A TERMINAL. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...SOME FORM OF LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE
PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 012329
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
629 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED STORMS IN THE EASTERN CWA PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. FARTHER WEST...UPPER WAVE TRACKING
OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK MAINLY MID
LEVEL BASED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WHILE MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...
WITH RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
STRONGER WIND GUSTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...BUMPED UP LOWS A BIT FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS.

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE EASTERN CWA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE ENOUGH WEAK
CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY LATE AT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET NOSES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. WITH SOME DECENT WARMING AND
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DOMINATING WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY IN OUR WEST...APPROACHING HIGHS NEAR 90. FURTHER
EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO IMPROVE IMPROVE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S...BUT COULD BE TEMPERED SOME BY RESIDUAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
LIFTS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH
SKIMS THE NORTH DAKOTA AND CANADIAN BORDER. ISOLATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTHEASTERN HALF...MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS FRONT...WITH THE GEM
DROPPING THE FRONT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...AND WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.

SURFACE RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SOME PLEASANT...COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HIGHS WILL DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL...ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND IMPROVING A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNFICANTLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING SOME STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MUCH DRIER PATTERN SEEN IN THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING THE TAF SITES IN THE EVENING
HOURS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER AT NIGHT AROUND KFSD
AND KSUX AFTER SHOWERS END WITH LIGHT WINDS SITUATED ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 012329
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
629 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED STORMS IN THE EASTERN CWA PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. FARTHER WEST...UPPER WAVE TRACKING
OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK MAINLY MID
LEVEL BASED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WHILE MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...
WITH RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
STRONGER WIND GUSTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...BUMPED UP LOWS A BIT FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS.

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE EASTERN CWA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE ENOUGH WEAK
CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY LATE AT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET NOSES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. WITH SOME DECENT WARMING AND
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DOMINATING WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY IN OUR WEST...APPROACHING HIGHS NEAR 90. FURTHER
EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO IMPROVE IMPROVE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S...BUT COULD BE TEMPERED SOME BY RESIDUAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
LIFTS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH
SKIMS THE NORTH DAKOTA AND CANADIAN BORDER. ISOLATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTHEASTERN HALF...MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS FRONT...WITH THE GEM
DROPPING THE FRONT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...AND WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.

SURFACE RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SOME PLEASANT...COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HIGHS WILL DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL...ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND IMPROVING A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNFICANTLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING SOME STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MUCH DRIER PATTERN SEEN IN THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING THE TAF SITES IN THE EVENING
HOURS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER AT NIGHT AROUND KFSD
AND KSUX AFTER SHOWERS END WITH LIGHT WINDS SITUATED ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM



000
FXUS63 KUNR 012306
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
506 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM ERN WY INTO WRN SD...WITH
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW BUILDING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE
SFC...WEAK CDFNT ASSOCD WITH SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL BUT
SCNTRL SD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO ERN MT/ERN WY. SCT
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWFA DUE TO SHORT WAVE.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST OF THE CWFA THIS
EVENING BRINGING SHRA/TSRA TO AN END...AND CLEARING SKIES LATER
TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE
EVENING.

TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL BRING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE CONUS
FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS WED/THU. MODELS SHOW DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST FORCING AND BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE CWA...THOUGH FAR NWRN SD COULD SEE SOME PRECIP CLIP THE AREA
WED NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WED/THU
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WED WILL GIVE
WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS THU. BEYOND THU THERE ARE SOME DIFFS IN
MODELS AS A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...IN THE MEAN THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE SCNTRL-SERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING PERIODIC SHORT-
WAVE TROFS ACROSS THE CWA...ALBEIT WITH LIMITED FORCING AND
MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE PERIODS WITH THE
MOST CONSISTENT TIMING OF WAVES. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCT/ISOLD
SHRA/TS OVER THE SD PLAINS EARLY THIS EVE...ESP SCENTRAL SD. LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PAC NW UPPER
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 012306
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
506 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM ERN WY INTO WRN SD...WITH
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW BUILDING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE
SFC...WEAK CDFNT ASSOCD WITH SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL BUT
SCNTRL SD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO ERN MT/ERN WY. SCT
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWFA DUE TO SHORT WAVE.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST OF THE CWFA THIS
EVENING BRINGING SHRA/TSRA TO AN END...AND CLEARING SKIES LATER
TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE
EVENING.

TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL BRING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE CONUS
FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS WED/THU. MODELS SHOW DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST FORCING AND BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE CWA...THOUGH FAR NWRN SD COULD SEE SOME PRECIP CLIP THE AREA
WED NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WED/THU
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WED WILL GIVE
WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS THU. BEYOND THU THERE ARE SOME DIFFS IN
MODELS AS A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...IN THE MEAN THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE SCNTRL-SERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING PERIODIC SHORT-
WAVE TROFS ACROSS THE CWA...ALBEIT WITH LIMITED FORCING AND
MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE PERIODS WITH THE
MOST CONSISTENT TIMING OF WAVES. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCT/ISOLD
SHRA/TS OVER THE SD PLAINS EARLY THIS EVE...ESP SCENTRAL SD. LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PAC NW UPPER
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...JC






000
FXUS63 KFSD 012056
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
356 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

AS OF 20Z...COLD FRONT HAD WORKED ITS WAY EAST TO JUST WEST OF
MARSHALL MN TO SIOUX FALLS SD TO JUST WEST OF SIOUX CITY. EXPECT
DEEP CONVECTION TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE HWO TO FOCUS ON THE HIGHWAY 60 AND EAST
CORRIDOR...WHERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 22Z WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATE TORNADOES.
WITH NEAR SURFACE LAYER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST...STILL NOT A TON OF
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...BUT STILL SOME DECENT SPEED SHEAR TO AID IN
STORM ORGANIZATION.  BETTER BACKED FLOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ALONG
THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA AIDING IN BETTER
FELICITY. DO NOT EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO WORK MUCH FURTHER NORTH
THAN HIGHWAY 30 SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...THEREFORE...MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY WIND AND HAIL DRIVEN FOR THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.  WITH AFOREMENTIONED SPEED
SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG AND MINIMAL CAP...EXPECT
STORMS TO DEVELOP AS SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM SOUTHEAST AIDS IN UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND LIFT.

EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 03Z.  STILL MAY
HAVE SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.  FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY GENERATE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE ENOUGH WEAK
CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY LATE AT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET NOSES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. WITH SOME DECENT WARMING AND
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DOMINATING WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY IN OUR WEST...APPROACHING HIGHS NEAR 90. FURTHER
EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO IMPROVE IMPROVE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S...BUT COULD BE TEMPERED SOME BY RESIDUAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
LIFTS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH
SKIMS THE NORTH DAKOTA AND CANADIAN BORDER. ISOLATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTHEASTERN HALF...MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS FRONT...WITH THE GEM
DROPPING THE FRONT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...AND WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.

SURFACE RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SOME PLEASANT...COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HIGHS WILL DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL...ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND IMPROVING A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNFICANTLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING SOME STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MUCH DRIER PATTERN SEEN IN THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOCUS THIS SET OF TAFS WAS THE CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED HIGH BASED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST..THOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO AT TAF SITES. WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINLY AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 012056
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
356 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

AS OF 20Z...COLD FRONT HAD WORKED ITS WAY EAST TO JUST WEST OF
MARSHALL MN TO SIOUX FALLS SD TO JUST WEST OF SIOUX CITY. EXPECT
DEEP CONVECTION TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE HWO TO FOCUS ON THE HIGHWAY 60 AND EAST
CORRIDOR...WHERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 22Z WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATE TORNADOES.
WITH NEAR SURFACE LAYER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST...STILL NOT A TON OF
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...BUT STILL SOME DECENT SPEED SHEAR TO AID IN
STORM ORGANIZATION.  BETTER BACKED FLOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ALONG
THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA AIDING IN BETTER
FELICITY. DO NOT EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO WORK MUCH FURTHER NORTH
THAN HIGHWAY 30 SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...THEREFORE...MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY WIND AND HAIL DRIVEN FOR THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.  WITH AFOREMENTIONED SPEED
SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG AND MINIMAL CAP...EXPECT
STORMS TO DEVELOP AS SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM SOUTHEAST AIDS IN UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND LIFT.

EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 03Z.  STILL MAY
HAVE SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.  FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY GENERATE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE ENOUGH WEAK
CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY LATE AT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET NOSES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. WITH SOME DECENT WARMING AND
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DOMINATING WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY IN OUR WEST...APPROACHING HIGHS NEAR 90. FURTHER
EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO IMPROVE IMPROVE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S...BUT COULD BE TEMPERED SOME BY RESIDUAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
LIFTS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH
SKIMS THE NORTH DAKOTA AND CANADIAN BORDER. ISOLATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTHEASTERN HALF...MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS FRONT...WITH THE GEM
DROPPING THE FRONT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...AND WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.

SURFACE RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SOME PLEASANT...COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HIGHS WILL DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL...ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND IMPROVING A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNFICANTLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING SOME STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MUCH DRIER PATTERN SEEN IN THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOCUS THIS SET OF TAFS WAS THE CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED HIGH BASED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST..THOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO AT TAF SITES. WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINLY AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KABR 011944
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
244 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT
RANGE. FOR TNT IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LATE
AFTN/EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MLCAPES AROUND
1K...RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE TO NO
CAP AND APPROACHING S/W...SUSPECT WILL SEE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOP
AND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET. PROBABLY NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION TO
THE ACTIVITY GIVEN LACK OF ANY DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BUT THAT
SAID THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG GFS/NAM FAVORING THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF STATE COVERAGE-WISE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DECENT MIXING GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE/DRY
ATMOSPHERE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE LLJ GETS CRANKED
UP OVER ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN CWA. HI RES AND LOW RES MODELS A
LIKE HAVE BEEN HINTING AT ELEVATED LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY FROM THE
JAMES VALLEY EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SUCH
IN THE FORECAST. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM
KICKS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL ADVECT
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EAST ACROSS THE CWA A HEAD OF THAT
SYSTEM...PRODUCING A DECENT CAP IN THE PROCESS. ANY MCS THAT FORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY WELL STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY ABOUT AVERAGE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
POPS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NORTHEAST
CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY TO THE EAST OF SFC
FRONT...OTHERWISE EXPECT THEM TO AVERAGE OUT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO MINNESOTA ON
THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN. SFC HIGH WILL THEN BE
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO C. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE
40S FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARMER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STILL EXPECTING WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 011944
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
244 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT
RANGE. FOR TNT IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LATE
AFTN/EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MLCAPES AROUND
1K...RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE TO NO
CAP AND APPROACHING S/W...SUSPECT WILL SEE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOP
AND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET. PROBABLY NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION TO
THE ACTIVITY GIVEN LACK OF ANY DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BUT THAT
SAID THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG GFS/NAM FAVORING THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF STATE COVERAGE-WISE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DECENT MIXING GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE/DRY
ATMOSPHERE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE LLJ GETS CRANKED
UP OVER ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN CWA. HI RES AND LOW RES MODELS A
LIKE HAVE BEEN HINTING AT ELEVATED LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY FROM THE
JAMES VALLEY EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SUCH
IN THE FORECAST. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM
KICKS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL ADVECT
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EAST ACROSS THE CWA A HEAD OF THAT
SYSTEM...PRODUCING A DECENT CAP IN THE PROCESS. ANY MCS THAT FORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY WELL STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY ABOUT AVERAGE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
POPS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NORTHEAST
CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY TO THE EAST OF SFC
FRONT...OTHERWISE EXPECT THEM TO AVERAGE OUT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO MINNESOTA ON
THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN. SFC HIGH WILL THEN BE
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO C. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE
40S FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARMER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STILL EXPECTING WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 011944
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
244 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT
RANGE. FOR TNT IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LATE
AFTN/EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MLCAPES AROUND
1K...RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE TO NO
CAP AND APPROACHING S/W...SUSPECT WILL SEE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOP
AND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET. PROBABLY NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION TO
THE ACTIVITY GIVEN LACK OF ANY DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BUT THAT
SAID THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG GFS/NAM FAVORING THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF STATE COVERAGE-WISE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DECENT MIXING GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE/DRY
ATMOSPHERE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE LLJ GETS CRANKED
UP OVER ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN CWA. HI RES AND LOW RES MODELS A
LIKE HAVE BEEN HINTING AT ELEVATED LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY FROM THE
JAMES VALLEY EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SUCH
IN THE FORECAST. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM
KICKS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL ADVECT
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EAST ACROSS THE CWA A HEAD OF THAT
SYSTEM...PRODUCING A DECENT CAP IN THE PROCESS. ANY MCS THAT FORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY WELL STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY ABOUT AVERAGE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
POPS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NORTHEAST
CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY TO THE EAST OF SFC
FRONT...OTHERWISE EXPECT THEM TO AVERAGE OUT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO MINNESOTA ON
THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN. SFC HIGH WILL THEN BE
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO C. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE
40S FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARMER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STILL EXPECTING WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 011944
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
244 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT
RANGE. FOR TNT IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LATE
AFTN/EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MLCAPES AROUND
1K...RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE TO NO
CAP AND APPROACHING S/W...SUSPECT WILL SEE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOP
AND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET. PROBABLY NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION TO
THE ACTIVITY GIVEN LACK OF ANY DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BUT THAT
SAID THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG GFS/NAM FAVORING THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF STATE COVERAGE-WISE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DECENT MIXING GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE/DRY
ATMOSPHERE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE LLJ GETS CRANKED
UP OVER ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN CWA. HI RES AND LOW RES MODELS A
LIKE HAVE BEEN HINTING AT ELEVATED LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY FROM THE
JAMES VALLEY EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SUCH
IN THE FORECAST. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM
KICKS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL ADVECT
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EAST ACROSS THE CWA A HEAD OF THAT
SYSTEM...PRODUCING A DECENT CAP IN THE PROCESS. ANY MCS THAT FORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY WELL STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY ABOUT AVERAGE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
POPS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NORTHEAST
CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY TO THE EAST OF SFC
FRONT...OTHERWISE EXPECT THEM TO AVERAGE OUT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO MINNESOTA ON
THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN. SFC HIGH WILL THEN BE
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO C. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE
40S FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARMER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STILL EXPECTING WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 011936
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT
RANGE. FOR TNT IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LATE
AFTN/EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MLCAPES AROUND
1K...RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE TO NO
CAP...SUSPECT WILL SEE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOP AND PERSIST UNTIL
ABOUT SUNSET. PROBABLY NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION TO THE ACTIVITY
GIVEN LACK OF ANY DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BUT THAT SAID THERE IS
SOME CONSENSUS AMONG GFS/NAM FAVORING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF STATE
COVERAGE-WISE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DECENT MIXING GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE/DRY
ATMOSPHERE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE LLJ GETS CRANKED
UP OVER ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN CWA. HI RES AND LOW RES MODELS A
LIKE HAVE BEEN HINTING AT ELEVATED LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY FROM THE
JAMES VALLEY EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SUCH
IN THE FORECAST. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM
KICKS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL ADVECT
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EAST ACROSS THE CWA A HEAD OF THAT
SYSTEM...PRODUCING A DECENT CAP IN THE PROCESS. ANY MCS THAT FORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY WELL STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY ABOUT AVERAGE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
POPS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NORTHEAST
CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY TO THE EAST OF SFC
FRONT...OTHERWISE EXPECT THEM TO AVERAGE OUT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO MINNESOTA ON
THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN. SFC HIGH WILL THEN BE
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO C. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE
40S FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARMER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STILL EXPECTING WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 011936
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT
RANGE. FOR TNT IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LATE
AFTN/EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MLCAPES AROUND
1K...RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE TO NO
CAP...SUSPECT WILL SEE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOP AND PERSIST UNTIL
ABOUT SUNSET. PROBABLY NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION TO THE ACTIVITY
GIVEN LACK OF ANY DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BUT THAT SAID THERE IS
SOME CONSENSUS AMONG GFS/NAM FAVORING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF STATE
COVERAGE-WISE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DECENT MIXING GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE/DRY
ATMOSPHERE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE LLJ GETS CRANKED
UP OVER ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN CWA. HI RES AND LOW RES MODELS A
LIKE HAVE BEEN HINTING AT ELEVATED LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY FROM THE
JAMES VALLEY EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SUCH
IN THE FORECAST. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM
KICKS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL ADVECT
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EAST ACROSS THE CWA A HEAD OF THAT
SYSTEM...PRODUCING A DECENT CAP IN THE PROCESS. ANY MCS THAT FORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY WELL STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY ABOUT AVERAGE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
POPS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NORTHEAST
CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY TO THE EAST OF SFC
FRONT...OTHERWISE EXPECT THEM TO AVERAGE OUT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO MINNESOTA ON
THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN. SFC HIGH WILL THEN BE
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO C. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE
40S FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARMER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STILL EXPECTING WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 011924
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
124 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM ERN WY INTO WRN SD...WITH
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW BUILDING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE
SFC...WEAK CDFNT ASSOCD WITH SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL BUT
SCNTRL SD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO ERN MT/ERN WY. SCT
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWFA DUE TO SHORT WAVE.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST OF THE CWFA THIS
EVENING BRINGING SHRA/TSRA TO AN END...AND CLEARING SKIES LATER
TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE
EVENING.

TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL BRING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE CONUS
FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS WED/THU. MODELS SHOW DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST FORCING AND BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE CWA...THOUGH FAR NWRN SD COULD SEE SOME PRECIP CLIP THE AREA
WED NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WED/THU
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WED WILL GIVE
WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS THU. BEYOND THU THERE ARE SOME DIFFS IN
MODELS AS A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...IN THE MEAN THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE SCNTRL-SERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING PERIODIC SHORT-
WAVE TROFS ACROSS THE CWA...ALBEIT WITH LIMITED FORCING AND
MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE PERIODS WITH THE
MOST CONSISTENT TIMING OF WAVES. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN WY AND WRN
SD THIS AFTN AND EVNG AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
AREA. PRECIP WILL THEN PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING.
LOCAL MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...BUNKERS






000
FXUS63 KUNR 011924
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
124 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM ERN WY INTO WRN SD...WITH
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW BUILDING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE
SFC...WEAK CDFNT ASSOCD WITH SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL BUT
SCNTRL SD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO ERN MT/ERN WY. SCT
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWFA DUE TO SHORT WAVE.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST OF THE CWFA THIS
EVENING BRINGING SHRA/TSRA TO AN END...AND CLEARING SKIES LATER
TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE
EVENING.

TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL BRING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE CONUS
FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS WED/THU. MODELS SHOW DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST FORCING AND BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE CWA...THOUGH FAR NWRN SD COULD SEE SOME PRECIP CLIP THE AREA
WED NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WED/THU
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WED WILL GIVE
WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS THU. BEYOND THU THERE ARE SOME DIFFS IN
MODELS AS A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...IN THE MEAN THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE SCNTRL-SERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING PERIODIC SHORT-
WAVE TROFS ACROSS THE CWA...ALBEIT WITH LIMITED FORCING AND
MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE PERIODS WITH THE
MOST CONSISTENT TIMING OF WAVES. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN WY AND WRN
SD THIS AFTN AND EVNG AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
AREA. PRECIP WILL THEN PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING.
LOCAL MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...BUNKERS







000
FXUS63 KABR 011739 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1239 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

FORECAST IS IN FINE SHAPE AND NO REASON TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES THIS
MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROF OVERHEAD RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
MORNING BUT MOST HAVE DISSIPATED SO WILL LEAVE ONLY AN ISOLATED
MENTION IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...COOL
AIR ALOFT WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ENHANCED BY A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOSS OF HEATING
WILL END POP CHANCES THIS EVENING. WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
SHALLOW CU FORM IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION SETS UP FOR WEDNESDAY...WHEN COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL SEE THE
ATMOSPHERE BRIEFLY DESTABILIZE IN THE EVENING. MUCH DEPENDS ON
INSTABILITY BASED OFF GFS ML DEWPOINTS...WHICH TOP OUT IN THE MID
60S. ANY LOWER AND MOST LIKELY WE WILL BE CAPPED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TODAY...THOUGH LIMITED BY CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS. A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE LONG TERM IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA ALONG
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS. THE MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA ALONG WITH A COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE
BREEZY/WINDY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE COOL
FRONT. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A LOT OF MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA. SUNDAY MAY END UP BEING A LITTLE WARMER AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STILL EXPECTING WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK/TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 011739 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1239 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

FORECAST IS IN FINE SHAPE AND NO REASON TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES THIS
MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROF OVERHEAD RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
MORNING BUT MOST HAVE DISSIPATED SO WILL LEAVE ONLY AN ISOLATED
MENTION IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...COOL
AIR ALOFT WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ENHANCED BY A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOSS OF HEATING
WILL END POP CHANCES THIS EVENING. WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
SHALLOW CU FORM IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION SETS UP FOR WEDNESDAY...WHEN COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL SEE THE
ATMOSPHERE BRIEFLY DESTABILIZE IN THE EVENING. MUCH DEPENDS ON
INSTABILITY BASED OFF GFS ML DEWPOINTS...WHICH TOP OUT IN THE MID
60S. ANY LOWER AND MOST LIKELY WE WILL BE CAPPED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TODAY...THOUGH LIMITED BY CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS. A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE LONG TERM IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA ALONG
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS. THE MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA ALONG WITH A COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE
BREEZY/WINDY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE COOL
FRONT. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A LOT OF MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA. SUNDAY MAY END UP BEING A LITTLE WARMER AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STILL EXPECTING WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK/TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 011735
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1235 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER LOW OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING GENERATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE ARE IN A WEAKENING STATE...AND THINKING
SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY BY 12Z. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CU AND
EVENTUALLY SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. BASED ON THERMAL FIELDS
AND EXPECTED SUNSHINE...DID BUMP UP HIGHS A BIT...LOOKING FOR MID TO
UPPER 70S OVER THE AREA. A WAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING WYOMING WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST TODAY...MOVING OVER OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. PRETTY GOOD UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS WAVE...BUT WE
LACK A LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM. CAP IS RELATIVELY SMALL...BUT
WITHOUT THIS FORCING MECHANISM...THINK IT WILL PROBABLY HOLD OVER
MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING IT MAINLY DRY.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN AREA OF LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND HI RES MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. THINK MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THIS AREA WILL PROBABLY STAY NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA...BUT INCLUDED
SOME LOW POPS NEAR MARSHALL. OTHER AREA WHERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON IS ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. THESE WILL TRACK
EAST...POSSIBLY APPROACHING CHAMBERLAIN AND GREGORY BY AROUND 0Z.
THUS ALSO WILL CARRY SOME POPS IN THIS AREA. GIVEN MINIMAL
CAPE...NOT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH COULD BE SOME STRONG
WINDS WITH THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY GETTING
INTO OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES. THINK MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...AND THUS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. ALTHOUGH IF
WE HEAT ENOUGH...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT...BUT WE MAY
HOLD ON TO JUST ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO
LOW...THOUGH STILL EXPECTING MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY WILL OVERALL BE A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA...AS
SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS SOUTHEAST...WITH ZONAL FLOW WORKING TOWARD
WEAK RIDGING. POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL BOUNDARY TO GET CAUGHT UP
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...SO COULD GET A FEW
HARMLESS MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND A SPILLOVER OF A FEW
HIGHER CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASE IN MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
PUSH OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. JUST
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND WEAK QG FORCING TO BE CONCERNED TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY PUSHES SLOWLY NORTHEAST.ADDED
IN AN ISOLATED LEVEL POP FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS NORTH OF A HURON TO
SIOUX FALLS TO SPENCER LINE...BUT LOOKS LIKE ANY THUNDER IN A 50
J/KG MAX CAPE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE EVEN MORE ROGUE THAN THE SHOWERS.
KEPT A SMALL LINGERING CHANCE DURING THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND EAST CENTRAL SD...BUT BOUNDARY SHOULD NOT WAIT
AROUND FOR LONG AS WEAK WAVE MOVES PAST.

WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME STRATUS BUILDING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LATE NIGHT PULSE IN COVERAGE AS HIGHER
DEWPOINTS SNEAK IN BELOW WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. THIS STRATUS IS
ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY UNDERDONE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND HAVE SOME
CONCERN THAT IT WILL NOT GO AWAY QUITE AS QUIETLY AS NAM/GFS/
CANADIAN/ECMWF SUGGEST. POTENTIAL IS THERE TO MESS UP WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE THE FINAL OF THE WARMER DAYS FOR A WHILE...AT LEAST
ACROSS SW MN AND NW IA...WHILE LOOKS A BIT MORE CERTAIN WITH
VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT THE WEST WILL BREAK OUT MORE READILY.
FOR NOW...HAVE SOME READINGS APPROACHING 90 IN THE WEST...AND HAVE
LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE EAST. WITH THE WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID
AIR MASS...THERMODYNAMICS PROFILES ARE CONCERNING GIVEN THE
3000-3500 J/KG MEAN CAPE BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS...UNTIL
CONSIDERING THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY PUSHED NORTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING...AND THERE IS A GOOD SOLID 75-150 J/KG CAP ON THINGS...
ALONG WITH NEXT TO NO LARGER SCALE LIFT FORCING.

IN FACT...SHOULD BE CAPPED ENOUGH THAT AS STRONG WAVE CRASHES
INTO THE FLAT RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS
TO THE WEST AND NORTH AND FORCES A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS...THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY INERT OVERNIGHT AND
EVEN WELL INTO THURSDAY AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY
AFTERNOON. NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK RECORD AS SLOWEST...
GFS FASTEST...AND OTHERS VARYING PACE BETWEEN. ONLY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA AS MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF POST
FRONTAL Q VECTOR SUPPORT SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. SHOULD
GET A GOOD INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION ALONG AND POST FRONTAL DURING
THE EVENING...WHICH WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY DRYING WITH AGEOSTROPHIC SUPPORT OF JET ENTRANCE.

FOR THE MOST PART...HAVE LEFT THE REMAINING THREE DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED DRY AS SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEDGES A GOOD DOSE OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SEVERAL SOLUTIONS ATTEMPT TO
BRING ANOTHER POST FRONTAL WAVE WITH A LITTLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING AROUND THE START OF THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH MODELS
UNCERTAIN ON TIMING ON TOP OF THIS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR...DID NOT
MAKE SENSE TO ADD IN ANY LOWER CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. PERIOD OF
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOCUS THIS SET OF TAFS WAS THE CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED HIGH BASED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST..THOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO AT TAF SITES. WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINLY AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 011735
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1235 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER LOW OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING GENERATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE ARE IN A WEAKENING STATE...AND THINKING
SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY BY 12Z. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CU AND
EVENTUALLY SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. BASED ON THERMAL FIELDS
AND EXPECTED SUNSHINE...DID BUMP UP HIGHS A BIT...LOOKING FOR MID TO
UPPER 70S OVER THE AREA. A WAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING WYOMING WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST TODAY...MOVING OVER OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. PRETTY GOOD UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS WAVE...BUT WE
LACK A LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM. CAP IS RELATIVELY SMALL...BUT
WITHOUT THIS FORCING MECHANISM...THINK IT WILL PROBABLY HOLD OVER
MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING IT MAINLY DRY.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN AREA OF LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND HI RES MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. THINK MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THIS AREA WILL PROBABLY STAY NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA...BUT INCLUDED
SOME LOW POPS NEAR MARSHALL. OTHER AREA WHERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON IS ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. THESE WILL TRACK
EAST...POSSIBLY APPROACHING CHAMBERLAIN AND GREGORY BY AROUND 0Z.
THUS ALSO WILL CARRY SOME POPS IN THIS AREA. GIVEN MINIMAL
CAPE...NOT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH COULD BE SOME STRONG
WINDS WITH THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY GETTING
INTO OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES. THINK MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...AND THUS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. ALTHOUGH IF
WE HEAT ENOUGH...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT...BUT WE MAY
HOLD ON TO JUST ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO
LOW...THOUGH STILL EXPECTING MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY WILL OVERALL BE A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA...AS
SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS SOUTHEAST...WITH ZONAL FLOW WORKING TOWARD
WEAK RIDGING. POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL BOUNDARY TO GET CAUGHT UP
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...SO COULD GET A FEW
HARMLESS MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND A SPILLOVER OF A FEW
HIGHER CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASE IN MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
PUSH OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. JUST
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND WEAK QG FORCING TO BE CONCERNED TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY PUSHES SLOWLY NORTHEAST.ADDED
IN AN ISOLATED LEVEL POP FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS NORTH OF A HURON TO
SIOUX FALLS TO SPENCER LINE...BUT LOOKS LIKE ANY THUNDER IN A 50
J/KG MAX CAPE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE EVEN MORE ROGUE THAN THE SHOWERS.
KEPT A SMALL LINGERING CHANCE DURING THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND EAST CENTRAL SD...BUT BOUNDARY SHOULD NOT WAIT
AROUND FOR LONG AS WEAK WAVE MOVES PAST.

WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME STRATUS BUILDING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LATE NIGHT PULSE IN COVERAGE AS HIGHER
DEWPOINTS SNEAK IN BELOW WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. THIS STRATUS IS
ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY UNDERDONE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND HAVE SOME
CONCERN THAT IT WILL NOT GO AWAY QUITE AS QUIETLY AS NAM/GFS/
CANADIAN/ECMWF SUGGEST. POTENTIAL IS THERE TO MESS UP WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE THE FINAL OF THE WARMER DAYS FOR A WHILE...AT LEAST
ACROSS SW MN AND NW IA...WHILE LOOKS A BIT MORE CERTAIN WITH
VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT THE WEST WILL BREAK OUT MORE READILY.
FOR NOW...HAVE SOME READINGS APPROACHING 90 IN THE WEST...AND HAVE
LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE EAST. WITH THE WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID
AIR MASS...THERMODYNAMICS PROFILES ARE CONCERNING GIVEN THE
3000-3500 J/KG MEAN CAPE BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS...UNTIL
CONSIDERING THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY PUSHED NORTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING...AND THERE IS A GOOD SOLID 75-150 J/KG CAP ON THINGS...
ALONG WITH NEXT TO NO LARGER SCALE LIFT FORCING.

IN FACT...SHOULD BE CAPPED ENOUGH THAT AS STRONG WAVE CRASHES
INTO THE FLAT RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS
TO THE WEST AND NORTH AND FORCES A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS...THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY INERT OVERNIGHT AND
EVEN WELL INTO THURSDAY AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY
AFTERNOON. NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK RECORD AS SLOWEST...
GFS FASTEST...AND OTHERS VARYING PACE BETWEEN. ONLY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA AS MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF POST
FRONTAL Q VECTOR SUPPORT SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. SHOULD
GET A GOOD INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION ALONG AND POST FRONTAL DURING
THE EVENING...WHICH WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY DRYING WITH AGEOSTROPHIC SUPPORT OF JET ENTRANCE.

FOR THE MOST PART...HAVE LEFT THE REMAINING THREE DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED DRY AS SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEDGES A GOOD DOSE OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SEVERAL SOLUTIONS ATTEMPT TO
BRING ANOTHER POST FRONTAL WAVE WITH A LITTLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING AROUND THE START OF THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH MODELS
UNCERTAIN ON TIMING ON TOP OF THIS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR...DID NOT
MAKE SENSE TO ADD IN ANY LOWER CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. PERIOD OF
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOCUS THIS SET OF TAFS WAS THE CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED HIGH BASED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST..THOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO AT TAF SITES. WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINLY AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KUNR 011705
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1105 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WYOMING. A
FEW MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN WYOMING. A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING
BORDER. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WYOMING THIS MORNING AND
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHORTWAVE WILL BE EFFICIENT IN GENERATING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING..WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WITH CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR LOW END OF GUIDANCE. STRONG
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY...WITH
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SUNNY AND WARMER
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE CONUS
FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS WED/THU. MODELS SHOW DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST FORCING AND BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE CWA...THOUGH FAR NW SD COULD SEE SOME PRECIP CLIP THE AREA
WED NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WED/THU
WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION. ABOVE AVG TEMPS WED WILL GIVE
WAY TO COOLER THAN AVG TEMPS THUR. BEYOND THU THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AS A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP PRECIP OVER THE AREA AS UPPER WAVES
CROSS THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW. THE ECM IS DRIER...SO WILL GO WITH
SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. NEAR TO BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN WY AND WRN SD THIS
AFTN AND EVNG AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA.
PRECIP WILL THEN PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...79
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...BUNKERS





000
FXUS63 KUNR 011705
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1105 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WYOMING. A
FEW MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN WYOMING. A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING
BORDER. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WYOMING THIS MORNING AND
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHORTWAVE WILL BE EFFICIENT IN GENERATING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING..WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WITH CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR LOW END OF GUIDANCE. STRONG
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY...WITH
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SUNNY AND WARMER
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE CONUS
FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS WED/THU. MODELS SHOW DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST FORCING AND BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE CWA...THOUGH FAR NW SD COULD SEE SOME PRECIP CLIP THE AREA
WED NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WED/THU
WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION. ABOVE AVG TEMPS WED WILL GIVE
WAY TO COOLER THAN AVG TEMPS THUR. BEYOND THU THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AS A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP PRECIP OVER THE AREA AS UPPER WAVES
CROSS THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW. THE ECM IS DRIER...SO WILL GO WITH
SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. NEAR TO BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN WY AND WRN SD THIS
AFTN AND EVNG AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA.
PRECIP WILL THEN PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...79
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...BUNKERS




000
FXUS63 KABR 011509 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1009 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN FINE SHAPE AND NO REASON TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES THIS
MORNING.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROF OVERHEAD RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
MORNING BUT MOST HAVE DISSIPATED SO WILL LEAVE ONLY AN ISOLATED
MENTION IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...COOL
AIR ALOFT WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ENHANCED BY A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOSS OF HEATING
WILL END POP CHANCES THIS EVENING. WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
SHALLOW CU FORM IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION SETS UP FOR WEDNESDAY...WHEN COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL SEE THE
ATMOSPHERE BRIEFLY DESTABILIZE IN THE EVENING. MUCH DEPENDS ON
INSTABILITY BASED OFF GFS ML DEWPOINTS...WHICH TOP OUT IN THE MID
60S. ANY LOWER AND MOST LIKELY WE WILL BE CAPPED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TODAY...THOUGH LIMITED BY CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS. A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG TERM IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA ALONG
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS. THE MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA ALONG WITH A COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE
BREEZY/WINDY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE COOL
FRONT. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A LOT OF MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA. SUNDAY MAY END UP BEING A LITTLE WARMER AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES...SOME INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT MORE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN.
SOME OF THESE MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS. INSERTED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS
IN AT ALL LOCATIONS. THESE WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 011509 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1009 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN FINE SHAPE AND NO REASON TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES THIS
MORNING.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROF OVERHEAD RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
MORNING BUT MOST HAVE DISSIPATED SO WILL LEAVE ONLY AN ISOLATED
MENTION IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...COOL
AIR ALOFT WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ENHANCED BY A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOSS OF HEATING
WILL END POP CHANCES THIS EVENING. WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
SHALLOW CU FORM IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION SETS UP FOR WEDNESDAY...WHEN COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL SEE THE
ATMOSPHERE BRIEFLY DESTABILIZE IN THE EVENING. MUCH DEPENDS ON
INSTABILITY BASED OFF GFS ML DEWPOINTS...WHICH TOP OUT IN THE MID
60S. ANY LOWER AND MOST LIKELY WE WILL BE CAPPED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TODAY...THOUGH LIMITED BY CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS. A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG TERM IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA ALONG
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS. THE MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA ALONG WITH A COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE
BREEZY/WINDY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE COOL
FRONT. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A LOT OF MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA. SUNDAY MAY END UP BEING A LITTLE WARMER AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES...SOME INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT MORE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN.
SOME OF THESE MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS. INSERTED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS
IN AT ALL LOCATIONS. THESE WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 011137 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
637 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROF OVERHEAD RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
MORNING BUT MOST HAVE DISSIPATED SO WILL LEAVE ONLY AN ISOLATED
MENTION IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...COOL
AIR ALOFT WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ENHANCED BY A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOSS OF HEATING
WILL END POP CHANCES THIS EVENING. WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
SHALLOW CU FORM IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION SETS UP FOR WEDNESDAY...WHEN COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL SEE THE
ATMOSPHERE BRIEFLY DESTABILIZE IN THE EVENING. MUCH DEPENDS ON
INSTABILITY BASED OFF GFS ML DEWPOINTS...WHICH TOP OUT IN THE MID
60S. ANY LOWER AND MOST LIKELY WE WILL BE CAPPED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TODAY...THOUGH LIMITED BY CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS. A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG TERM IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA ALONG
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS. THE MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA ALONG WITH A COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE
BREEZY/WINDY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE COOL
FRONT. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A LOT OF MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA. SUNDAY MAY END UP BEING A LITTLE WARMER AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTH.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES...SOME INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT MORE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN.
SOME OF THESE MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS. INSERTED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS
IN AT ALL LOCATIONS. THESE WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 011137 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
637 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROF OVERHEAD RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
MORNING BUT MOST HAVE DISSIPATED SO WILL LEAVE ONLY AN ISOLATED
MENTION IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...COOL
AIR ALOFT WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ENHANCED BY A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOSS OF HEATING
WILL END POP CHANCES THIS EVENING. WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
SHALLOW CU FORM IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION SETS UP FOR WEDNESDAY...WHEN COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL SEE THE
ATMOSPHERE BRIEFLY DESTABILIZE IN THE EVENING. MUCH DEPENDS ON
INSTABILITY BASED OFF GFS ML DEWPOINTS...WHICH TOP OUT IN THE MID
60S. ANY LOWER AND MOST LIKELY WE WILL BE CAPPED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TODAY...THOUGH LIMITED BY CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS. A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG TERM IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA ALONG
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS. THE MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA ALONG WITH A COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE
BREEZY/WINDY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE COOL
FRONT. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A LOT OF MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA. SUNDAY MAY END UP BEING A LITTLE WARMER AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTH.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES...SOME INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT MORE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN.
SOME OF THESE MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS. INSERTED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS
IN AT ALL LOCATIONS. THESE WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 011137 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
637 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROF OVERHEAD RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
MORNING BUT MOST HAVE DISSIPATED SO WILL LEAVE ONLY AN ISOLATED
MENTION IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...COOL
AIR ALOFT WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ENHANCED BY A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOSS OF HEATING
WILL END POP CHANCES THIS EVENING. WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
SHALLOW CU FORM IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION SETS UP FOR WEDNESDAY...WHEN COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL SEE THE
ATMOSPHERE BRIEFLY DESTABILIZE IN THE EVENING. MUCH DEPENDS ON
INSTABILITY BASED OFF GFS ML DEWPOINTS...WHICH TOP OUT IN THE MID
60S. ANY LOWER AND MOST LIKELY WE WILL BE CAPPED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TODAY...THOUGH LIMITED BY CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS. A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG TERM IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA ALONG
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS. THE MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA ALONG WITH A COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE
BREEZY/WINDY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE COOL
FRONT. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A LOT OF MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA. SUNDAY MAY END UP BEING A LITTLE WARMER AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTH.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES...SOME INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT MORE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN.
SOME OF THESE MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS. INSERTED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS
IN AT ALL LOCATIONS. THESE WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 011137 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
637 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROF OVERHEAD RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
MORNING BUT MOST HAVE DISSIPATED SO WILL LEAVE ONLY AN ISOLATED
MENTION IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...COOL
AIR ALOFT WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ENHANCED BY A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOSS OF HEATING
WILL END POP CHANCES THIS EVENING. WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
SHALLOW CU FORM IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION SETS UP FOR WEDNESDAY...WHEN COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL SEE THE
ATMOSPHERE BRIEFLY DESTABILIZE IN THE EVENING. MUCH DEPENDS ON
INSTABILITY BASED OFF GFS ML DEWPOINTS...WHICH TOP OUT IN THE MID
60S. ANY LOWER AND MOST LIKELY WE WILL BE CAPPED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TODAY...THOUGH LIMITED BY CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS. A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG TERM IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA ALONG
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS. THE MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA ALONG WITH A COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE
BREEZY/WINDY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE COOL
FRONT. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A LOT OF MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA. SUNDAY MAY END UP BEING A LITTLE WARMER AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTH.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES...SOME INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT MORE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN.
SOME OF THESE MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS. INSERTED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS
IN AT ALL LOCATIONS. THESE WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 011123
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
623 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER LOW OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING GENERATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE ARE IN A WEAKENING STATE...AND THINKING
SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY BY 12Z. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CU AND
EVENTUALLY SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. BASED ON THERMAL FIELDS
AND EXPECTED SUNSHINE...DID BUMP UP HIGHS A BIT...LOOKING FOR MID TO
UPPER 70S OVER THE AREA. A WAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING WYOMING WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST TODAY...MOVING OVER OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. PRETTY GOOD UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS WAVE...BUT WE
LACK A LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM. CAP IS RELATIVELY SMALL...BUT
WITHOUT THIS FORCING MECHANISM...THINK IT WILL PROBABLY HOLD OVER
MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING IT MAINLY DRY.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN AREA OF LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND HI RES MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. THINK MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THIS AREA WILL PROBABLY STAY NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA...BUT INCLUDED
SOME LOW POPS NEAR MARSHALL. OTHER AREA WHERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON IS ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. THESE WILL TRACK
EAST...POSSIBLY APPROACHING CHAMBERLAIN AND GREGORY BY AROUND 0Z.
THUS ALSO WILL CARRY SOME POPS IN THIS AREA. GIVEN MINIMAL
CAPE...NOT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH COULD BE SOME STRONG
WINDS WITH THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY GETTING
INTO OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES. THINK MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...AND THUS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. ALTHOUGH IF
WE HEAT ENOUGH...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT...BUT WE MAY
HOLD ON TO JUST ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO
LOW...THOUGH STILL EXPECTING MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY WILL OVERALL BE A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA...AS
SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS SOUTHEAST...WITH ZONAL FLOW WORKING TOWARD
WEAK RIDGING. POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL BOUNDARY TO GET CAUGHT UP
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...SO COULD GET A FEW
HARMLESS MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND A SPILLOVER OF A FEW
HIGHER CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASE IN MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
PUSH OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. JUST
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND WEAK QG FORCING TO BE CONCERNED TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY PUSHES SLOWLY NORTHEAST.ADDED
IN AN ISOLATED LEVEL POP FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS NORTH OF A HURON TO
SIOUX FALLS TO SPENCER LINE...BUT LOOKS LIKE ANY THUNDER IN A 50
J/KG MAX CAPE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE EVEN MORE ROGUE THAN THE SHOWERS.
KEPT A SMALL LINGERING CHANCE DURING THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND EAST CENTRAL SD...BUT BOUNDARY SHOULD NOT WAIT
AROUND FOR LONG AS WEAK WAVE MOVES PAST.

WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME STRATUS BUILDING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LATE NIGHT PULSE IN COVERAGE AS HIGHER
DEWPOINTS SNEAK IN BELOW WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. THIS STRATUS IS
ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY UNDERDONE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND HAVE SOME
CONCERN THAT IT WILL NOT GO AWAY QUITE AS QUIETLY AS NAM/GFS/
CANADIAN/ECMWF SUGGEST. POTENTIAL IS THERE TO MESS UP WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE THE FINAL OF THE WARMER DAYS FOR A WHILE...AT LEAST
ACROSS SW MN AND NW IA...WHILE LOOKS A BIT MORE CERTAIN WITH
VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT THE WEST WILL BREAK OUT MORE READILY.
FOR NOW...HAVE SOME READINGS APPROACHING 90 IN THE WEST...AND HAVE
LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE EAST. WITH THE WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID
AIR MASS...THERMODYNAMICS PROFILES ARE CONCERNING GIVEN THE
3000-3500 J/KG MEAN CAPE BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS...UNTIL
CONSIDERING THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY PUSHED NORTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING...AND THERE IS A GOOD SOLID 75-150 J/KG CAP ON THINGS...
ALONG WITH NEXT TO NO LARGER SCALE LIFT FORCING.

IN FACT...SHOULD BE CAPPED ENOUGH THAT AS STRONG WAVE CRASHES
INTO THE FLAT RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS
TO THE WEST AND NORTH AND FORCES A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS...THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY INERT OVERNIGHT AND
EVEN WELL INTO THURSDAY AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY
AFTERNOON. NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK RECORD AS SLOWEST...
GFS FASTEST...AND OTHERS VARYING PACE BETWEEN. ONLY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA AS MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF POST
FRONTAL Q VECTOR SUPPORT SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. SHOULD
GET A GOOD INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION ALONG AND POST FRONTAL DURING
THE EVENING...WHICH WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY DRYING WITH AGEOSTROPHIC SUPPORT OF JET ENTRANCE.

FOR THE MOST PART...HAVE LEFT THE REMAINING THREE DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED DRY AS SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEDGES A GOOD DOSE OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SEVERAL SOLUTIONS ATTEMPT TO
BRING ANOTHER POST FRONTAL WAVE WITH A LITTLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING AROUND THE START OF THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH MODELS
UNCERTAIN ON TIMING ON TOP OF THIS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR...DID NOT
MAKE SENSE TO ADD IN ANY LOWER CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. PERIOD OF
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GREATEST COVERAGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. CONFIDENCE ON
COVERAGE AND TIMING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 010929
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
429 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER LOW OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING GENERATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE ARE IN A WEAKENING STATE...AND THINKING
SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY BY 12Z. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CU AND
EVENTUALLY SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. BASED ON THERMAL FIELDS
AND EXPECTED SUNSHINE...DID BUMP UP HIGHS A BIT...LOOKING FOR MID TO
UPPER 70S OVER THE AREA. A WAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING WYOMING WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST TODAY...MOVING OVER OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. PRETTY GOOD UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS WAVE...BUT WE
LACK A LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM. CAP IS RELATIVELY SMALL...BUT
WITHOUT THIS FORCING MECHANISM...THINK IT WILL PROBABLY HOLD OVER
MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING IT MAINLY DRY.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN AREA OF LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND HI RES MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. THINK MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THIS AREA WILL PROBABLY STAY NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA...BUT INCLUDED
SOME LOW POPS NEAR MARSHALL. OTHER AREA WHERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON IS ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. THESE WILL TRACK
EAST...POSSIBLY APPROACHING CHAMBERLAIN AND GREGORY BY AROUND 0Z.
THUS ALSO WILL CARRY SOME POPS IN THIS AREA. GIVEN MINIMAL
CAPE...NOT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH COULD BE SOME STRONG
WINDS WITH THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY GETTING
INTO OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES. THINK MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...AND THUS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. ALTHOUGH IF
WE HEAT ENOUGH...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT...BUT WE MAY
HOLD ON TO JUST ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO
LOW...THOUGH STILL EXPECTING MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY WILL OVERALL BE A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA...AS
SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS SOUTHEAST...WITH ZONAL FLOW WORKING TOWARD
WEAK RIDGING. POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL BOUNDARY TO GET CAUGHT UP
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...SO COULD GET A FEW
HARMLESS MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND A SPILLOVER OF A FEW
HIGHER CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASE IN MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
PUSH OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. JUST
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND WEAK QG FORCING TO BE CONCERNED TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY PUSHES SLOWLY NORTHEAST.ADDED
IN AN ISOLATED LEVEL POP FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS NORTH OF A HURON TO
SIOUX FALLS TO SPENCER LINE...BUT LOOKS LIKE ANY THUNDER IN A 50
J/KG MAX CAPE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE EVEN MORE ROGUE THAN THE SHOWERS.
KEPT A SMALL LINGERING CHANCE DURING THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND EAST CENTRAL SD...BUT BOUNDARY SHOULD NOT WAIT
AROUND FOR LONG AS WEAK WAVE MOVES PAST.

WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME STRATUS BUILDING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LATE NIGHT PULSE IN COVERAGE AS HIGHER
DEWPOINTS SNEAK IN BELOW WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. THIS STRATUS IS
ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY UNDERDONE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND HAVE SOME
CONCERN THAT IT WILL NOT GO AWAY QUITE AS QUIETLY AS NAM/GFS/
CANADIAN/ECMWF SUGGEST. POTENTIAL IS THERE TO MESS UP WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE THE FINAL OF THE WARMER DAYS FOR A WHILE...AT LEAST
ACROSS SW MN AND NW IA...WHILE LOOKS A BIT MORE CERTAIN WITH
VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT THE WEST WILL BREAK OUT MORE READILY.
FOR NOW...HAVE SOME READINGS APPROACHING 90 IN THE WEST...AND HAVE
LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE EAST. WITH THE WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID
AIR MASS...THERMODYNAMICS PROFILES ARE CONCERNING GIVEN THE
3000-3500 J/KG MEAN CAPE BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS...UNTIL
CONSIDERING THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY PUSHED NORTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING...AND THERE IS A GOOD SOLID 75-150 J/KG CAP ON THINGS...
ALONG WITH NEXT TO NO LARGER SCALE LIFT FORCING.

IN FACT...SHOULD BE CAPPED ENOUGH THAT AS STRONG WAVE CRASHES
INTO THE FLAT RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS
TO THE WEST AND NORTH AND FORCES A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS...THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY INERT OVERNIGHT AND
EVEN WELL INTO THURSDAY AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY
AFTERNOON. NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK RECORD AS SLOWEST...
GFS FASTEST...AND OTHERS VARYING PACE BETWEEN. ONLY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA AS MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF POST
FRONTAL Q VECTOR SUPPORT SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. SHOULD
GET A GOOD INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION ALONG AND POST FRONTAL DURING
THE EVENING...WHICH WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY DRYING WITH AGEOSTROPHIC SUPPORT OF JET ENTRANCE.

FOR THE MOST PART...HAVE LEFT THE REMAINING THREE DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED DRY AS SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEDGES A GOOD DOSE OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SEVERAL SOLUTIONS ATTEMPT TO
BRING ANOTHER POST FRONTAL WAVE WITH A LITTLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING AROUND THE START OF THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH MODELS
UNCERTAIN ON TIMING ON TOP OF THIS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR...DID NOT
MAKE SENSE TO ADD IN ANY LOWER CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. PERIOD OF
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIRES MODELS ALL POINT TO MORE SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND RADAR BACKS UP WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ISNT TOO HIGH THAT TAF LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE MEASURABLE RAIN. SO AT THIS POINT DID NOT NOT MENTION
CHANCE FOR -SHRA BUT DID INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR CLOUDS. AFTER
WAVE GOES THROUGH...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY DAWN AND SKIES WOULDREMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR -TSRA WILL BE
LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT ONLY MENTION A PROB30 AT KHON.
CHANCES FOR KFSD AND KSUX WILL BE LATER...MORE THAN LIKELY OUTSIDE
THIS TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...HEITKAMP



000
FXUS63 KFSD 010929
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
429 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER LOW OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING GENERATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE ARE IN A WEAKENING STATE...AND THINKING
SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY BY 12Z. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CU AND
EVENTUALLY SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. BASED ON THERMAL FIELDS
AND EXPECTED SUNSHINE...DID BUMP UP HIGHS A BIT...LOOKING FOR MID TO
UPPER 70S OVER THE AREA. A WAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING WYOMING WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST TODAY...MOVING OVER OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. PRETTY GOOD UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS WAVE...BUT WE
LACK A LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM. CAP IS RELATIVELY SMALL...BUT
WITHOUT THIS FORCING MECHANISM...THINK IT WILL PROBABLY HOLD OVER
MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING IT MAINLY DRY.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN AREA OF LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND HI RES MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. THINK MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THIS AREA WILL PROBABLY STAY NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA...BUT INCLUDED
SOME LOW POPS NEAR MARSHALL. OTHER AREA WHERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON IS ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. THESE WILL TRACK
EAST...POSSIBLY APPROACHING CHAMBERLAIN AND GREGORY BY AROUND 0Z.
THUS ALSO WILL CARRY SOME POPS IN THIS AREA. GIVEN MINIMAL
CAPE...NOT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH COULD BE SOME STRONG
WINDS WITH THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY GETTING
INTO OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES. THINK MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...AND THUS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. ALTHOUGH IF
WE HEAT ENOUGH...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT...BUT WE MAY
HOLD ON TO JUST ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO
LOW...THOUGH STILL EXPECTING MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY WILL OVERALL BE A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA...AS
SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS SOUTHEAST...WITH ZONAL FLOW WORKING TOWARD
WEAK RIDGING. POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL BOUNDARY TO GET CAUGHT UP
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...SO COULD GET A FEW
HARMLESS MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND A SPILLOVER OF A FEW
HIGHER CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASE IN MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
PUSH OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. JUST
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND WEAK QG FORCING TO BE CONCERNED TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY PUSHES SLOWLY NORTHEAST.ADDED
IN AN ISOLATED LEVEL POP FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS NORTH OF A HURON TO
SIOUX FALLS TO SPENCER LINE...BUT LOOKS LIKE ANY THUNDER IN A 50
J/KG MAX CAPE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE EVEN MORE ROGUE THAN THE SHOWERS.
KEPT A SMALL LINGERING CHANCE DURING THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND EAST CENTRAL SD...BUT BOUNDARY SHOULD NOT WAIT
AROUND FOR LONG AS WEAK WAVE MOVES PAST.

WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME STRATUS BUILDING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LATE NIGHT PULSE IN COVERAGE AS HIGHER
DEWPOINTS SNEAK IN BELOW WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. THIS STRATUS IS
ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY UNDERDONE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND HAVE SOME
CONCERN THAT IT WILL NOT GO AWAY QUITE AS QUIETLY AS NAM/GFS/
CANADIAN/ECMWF SUGGEST. POTENTIAL IS THERE TO MESS UP WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE THE FINAL OF THE WARMER DAYS FOR A WHILE...AT LEAST
ACROSS SW MN AND NW IA...WHILE LOOKS A BIT MORE CERTAIN WITH
VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT THE WEST WILL BREAK OUT MORE READILY.
FOR NOW...HAVE SOME READINGS APPROACHING 90 IN THE WEST...AND HAVE
LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE EAST. WITH THE WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID
AIR MASS...THERMODYNAMICS PROFILES ARE CONCERNING GIVEN THE
3000-3500 J/KG MEAN CAPE BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS...UNTIL
CONSIDERING THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY PUSHED NORTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING...AND THERE IS A GOOD SOLID 75-150 J/KG CAP ON THINGS...
ALONG WITH NEXT TO NO LARGER SCALE LIFT FORCING.

IN FACT...SHOULD BE CAPPED ENOUGH THAT AS STRONG WAVE CRASHES
INTO THE FLAT RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS
TO THE WEST AND NORTH AND FORCES A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS...THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY INERT OVERNIGHT AND
EVEN WELL INTO THURSDAY AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY
AFTERNOON. NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK RECORD AS SLOWEST...
GFS FASTEST...AND OTHERS VARYING PACE BETWEEN. ONLY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA AS MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF POST
FRONTAL Q VECTOR SUPPORT SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. SHOULD
GET A GOOD INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION ALONG AND POST FRONTAL DURING
THE EVENING...WHICH WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY DRYING WITH AGEOSTROPHIC SUPPORT OF JET ENTRANCE.

FOR THE MOST PART...HAVE LEFT THE REMAINING THREE DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED DRY AS SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEDGES A GOOD DOSE OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SEVERAL SOLUTIONS ATTEMPT TO
BRING ANOTHER POST FRONTAL WAVE WITH A LITTLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING AROUND THE START OF THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH MODELS
UNCERTAIN ON TIMING ON TOP OF THIS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR...DID NOT
MAKE SENSE TO ADD IN ANY LOWER CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. PERIOD OF
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIRES MODELS ALL POINT TO MORE SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND RADAR BACKS UP WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ISNT TOO HIGH THAT TAF LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE MEASURABLE RAIN. SO AT THIS POINT DID NOT NOT MENTION
CHANCE FOR -SHRA BUT DID INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR CLOUDS. AFTER
WAVE GOES THROUGH...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY DAWN AND SKIES WOULDREMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR -TSRA WILL BE
LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT ONLY MENTION A PROB30 AT KHON.
CHANCES FOR KFSD AND KSUX WILL BE LATER...MORE THAN LIKELY OUTSIDE
THIS TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...HEITKAMP



000
FXUS63 KFSD 010929
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
429 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER LOW OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING GENERATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE ARE IN A WEAKENING STATE...AND THINKING
SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY BY 12Z. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CU AND
EVENTUALLY SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. BASED ON THERMAL FIELDS
AND EXPECTED SUNSHINE...DID BUMP UP HIGHS A BIT...LOOKING FOR MID TO
UPPER 70S OVER THE AREA. A WAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING WYOMING WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST TODAY...MOVING OVER OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. PRETTY GOOD UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS WAVE...BUT WE
LACK A LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM. CAP IS RELATIVELY SMALL...BUT
WITHOUT THIS FORCING MECHANISM...THINK IT WILL PROBABLY HOLD OVER
MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING IT MAINLY DRY.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN AREA OF LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND HI RES MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. THINK MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THIS AREA WILL PROBABLY STAY NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA...BUT INCLUDED
SOME LOW POPS NEAR MARSHALL. OTHER AREA WHERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON IS ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. THESE WILL TRACK
EAST...POSSIBLY APPROACHING CHAMBERLAIN AND GREGORY BY AROUND 0Z.
THUS ALSO WILL CARRY SOME POPS IN THIS AREA. GIVEN MINIMAL
CAPE...NOT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH COULD BE SOME STRONG
WINDS WITH THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY GETTING
INTO OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES. THINK MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...AND THUS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. ALTHOUGH IF
WE HEAT ENOUGH...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT...BUT WE MAY
HOLD ON TO JUST ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO
LOW...THOUGH STILL EXPECTING MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY WILL OVERALL BE A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA...AS
SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS SOUTHEAST...WITH ZONAL FLOW WORKING TOWARD
WEAK RIDGING. POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL BOUNDARY TO GET CAUGHT UP
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...SO COULD GET A FEW
HARMLESS MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND A SPILLOVER OF A FEW
HIGHER CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASE IN MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
PUSH OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. JUST
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND WEAK QG FORCING TO BE CONCERNED TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY PUSHES SLOWLY NORTHEAST.ADDED
IN AN ISOLATED LEVEL POP FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS NORTH OF A HURON TO
SIOUX FALLS TO SPENCER LINE...BUT LOOKS LIKE ANY THUNDER IN A 50
J/KG MAX CAPE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE EVEN MORE ROGUE THAN THE SHOWERS.
KEPT A SMALL LINGERING CHANCE DURING THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND EAST CENTRAL SD...BUT BOUNDARY SHOULD NOT WAIT
AROUND FOR LONG AS WEAK WAVE MOVES PAST.

WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME STRATUS BUILDING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LATE NIGHT PULSE IN COVERAGE AS HIGHER
DEWPOINTS SNEAK IN BELOW WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. THIS STRATUS IS
ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY UNDERDONE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND HAVE SOME
CONCERN THAT IT WILL NOT GO AWAY QUITE AS QUIETLY AS NAM/GFS/
CANADIAN/ECMWF SUGGEST. POTENTIAL IS THERE TO MESS UP WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE THE FINAL OF THE WARMER DAYS FOR A WHILE...AT LEAST
ACROSS SW MN AND NW IA...WHILE LOOKS A BIT MORE CERTAIN WITH
VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT THE WEST WILL BREAK OUT MORE READILY.
FOR NOW...HAVE SOME READINGS APPROACHING 90 IN THE WEST...AND HAVE
LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE EAST. WITH THE WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID
AIR MASS...THERMODYNAMICS PROFILES ARE CONCERNING GIVEN THE
3000-3500 J/KG MEAN CAPE BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS...UNTIL
CONSIDERING THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY PUSHED NORTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING...AND THERE IS A GOOD SOLID 75-150 J/KG CAP ON THINGS...
ALONG WITH NEXT TO NO LARGER SCALE LIFT FORCING.

IN FACT...SHOULD BE CAPPED ENOUGH THAT AS STRONG WAVE CRASHES
INTO THE FLAT RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS
TO THE WEST AND NORTH AND FORCES A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS...THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY INERT OVERNIGHT AND
EVEN WELL INTO THURSDAY AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY
AFTERNOON. NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK RECORD AS SLOWEST...
GFS FASTEST...AND OTHERS VARYING PACE BETWEEN. ONLY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA AS MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF POST
FRONTAL Q VECTOR SUPPORT SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. SHOULD
GET A GOOD INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION ALONG AND POST FRONTAL DURING
THE EVENING...WHICH WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY DRYING WITH AGEOSTROPHIC SUPPORT OF JET ENTRANCE.

FOR THE MOST PART...HAVE LEFT THE REMAINING THREE DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED DRY AS SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEDGES A GOOD DOSE OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SEVERAL SOLUTIONS ATTEMPT TO
BRING ANOTHER POST FRONTAL WAVE WITH A LITTLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING AROUND THE START OF THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH MODELS
UNCERTAIN ON TIMING ON TOP OF THIS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR...DID NOT
MAKE SENSE TO ADD IN ANY LOWER CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. PERIOD OF
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIRES MODELS ALL POINT TO MORE SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND RADAR BACKS UP WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ISNT TOO HIGH THAT TAF LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE MEASURABLE RAIN. SO AT THIS POINT DID NOT NOT MENTION
CHANCE FOR -SHRA BUT DID INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR CLOUDS. AFTER
WAVE GOES THROUGH...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY DAWN AND SKIES WOULDREMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR -TSRA WILL BE
LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT ONLY MENTION A PROB30 AT KHON.
CHANCES FOR KFSD AND KSUX WILL BE LATER...MORE THAN LIKELY OUTSIDE
THIS TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...HEITKAMP



000
FXUS63 KFSD 010929
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
429 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER LOW OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING GENERATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE ARE IN A WEAKENING STATE...AND THINKING
SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY BY 12Z. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CU AND
EVENTUALLY SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. BASED ON THERMAL FIELDS
AND EXPECTED SUNSHINE...DID BUMP UP HIGHS A BIT...LOOKING FOR MID TO
UPPER 70S OVER THE AREA. A WAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING WYOMING WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST TODAY...MOVING OVER OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. PRETTY GOOD UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS WAVE...BUT WE
LACK A LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM. CAP IS RELATIVELY SMALL...BUT
WITHOUT THIS FORCING MECHANISM...THINK IT WILL PROBABLY HOLD OVER
MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING IT MAINLY DRY.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN AREA OF LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND HI RES MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. THINK MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THIS AREA WILL PROBABLY STAY NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA...BUT INCLUDED
SOME LOW POPS NEAR MARSHALL. OTHER AREA WHERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON IS ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. THESE WILL TRACK
EAST...POSSIBLY APPROACHING CHAMBERLAIN AND GREGORY BY AROUND 0Z.
THUS ALSO WILL CARRY SOME POPS IN THIS AREA. GIVEN MINIMAL
CAPE...NOT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH COULD BE SOME STRONG
WINDS WITH THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY GETTING
INTO OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES. THINK MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...AND THUS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. ALTHOUGH IF
WE HEAT ENOUGH...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT...BUT WE MAY
HOLD ON TO JUST ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO
LOW...THOUGH STILL EXPECTING MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY WILL OVERALL BE A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA...AS
SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS SOUTHEAST...WITH ZONAL FLOW WORKING TOWARD
WEAK RIDGING. POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL BOUNDARY TO GET CAUGHT UP
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...SO COULD GET A FEW
HARMLESS MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND A SPILLOVER OF A FEW
HIGHER CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASE IN MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
PUSH OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. JUST
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND WEAK QG FORCING TO BE CONCERNED TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY PUSHES SLOWLY NORTHEAST.ADDED
IN AN ISOLATED LEVEL POP FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS NORTH OF A HURON TO
SIOUX FALLS TO SPENCER LINE...BUT LOOKS LIKE ANY THUNDER IN A 50
J/KG MAX CAPE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE EVEN MORE ROGUE THAN THE SHOWERS.
KEPT A SMALL LINGERING CHANCE DURING THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND EAST CENTRAL SD...BUT BOUNDARY SHOULD NOT WAIT
AROUND FOR LONG AS WEAK WAVE MOVES PAST.

WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME STRATUS BUILDING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LATE NIGHT PULSE IN COVERAGE AS HIGHER
DEWPOINTS SNEAK IN BELOW WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. THIS STRATUS IS
ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY UNDERDONE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND HAVE SOME
CONCERN THAT IT WILL NOT GO AWAY QUITE AS QUIETLY AS NAM/GFS/
CANADIAN/ECMWF SUGGEST. POTENTIAL IS THERE TO MESS UP WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE THE FINAL OF THE WARMER DAYS FOR A WHILE...AT LEAST
ACROSS SW MN AND NW IA...WHILE LOOKS A BIT MORE CERTAIN WITH
VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT THE WEST WILL BREAK OUT MORE READILY.
FOR NOW...HAVE SOME READINGS APPROACHING 90 IN THE WEST...AND HAVE
LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE EAST. WITH THE WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID
AIR MASS...THERMODYNAMICS PROFILES ARE CONCERNING GIVEN THE
3000-3500 J/KG MEAN CAPE BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS...UNTIL
CONSIDERING THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY PUSHED NORTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING...AND THERE IS A GOOD SOLID 75-150 J/KG CAP ON THINGS...
ALONG WITH NEXT TO NO LARGER SCALE LIFT FORCING.

IN FACT...SHOULD BE CAPPED ENOUGH THAT AS STRONG WAVE CRASHES
INTO THE FLAT RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS
TO THE WEST AND NORTH AND FORCES A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS...THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY INERT OVERNIGHT AND
EVEN WELL INTO THURSDAY AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY
AFTERNOON. NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK RECORD AS SLOWEST...
GFS FASTEST...AND OTHERS VARYING PACE BETWEEN. ONLY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA AS MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF POST
FRONTAL Q VECTOR SUPPORT SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. SHOULD
GET A GOOD INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION ALONG AND POST FRONTAL DURING
THE EVENING...WHICH WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY DRYING WITH AGEOSTROPHIC SUPPORT OF JET ENTRANCE.

FOR THE MOST PART...HAVE LEFT THE REMAINING THREE DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED DRY AS SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEDGES A GOOD DOSE OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SEVERAL SOLUTIONS ATTEMPT TO
BRING ANOTHER POST FRONTAL WAVE WITH A LITTLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING AROUND THE START OF THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH MODELS
UNCERTAIN ON TIMING ON TOP OF THIS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR...DID NOT
MAKE SENSE TO ADD IN ANY LOWER CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. PERIOD OF
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIRES MODELS ALL POINT TO MORE SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND RADAR BACKS UP WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ISNT TOO HIGH THAT TAF LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE MEASURABLE RAIN. SO AT THIS POINT DID NOT NOT MENTION
CHANCE FOR -SHRA BUT DID INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR CLOUDS. AFTER
WAVE GOES THROUGH...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY DAWN AND SKIES WOULDREMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR -TSRA WILL BE
LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT ONLY MENTION A PROB30 AT KHON.
CHANCES FOR KFSD AND KSUX WILL BE LATER...MORE THAN LIKELY OUTSIDE
THIS TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...HEITKAMP



000
FXUS63 KABR 010910
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
410 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROF OVERHEAD RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
MORNING BUT MOST HAVE DISSIPATED SO WILL LEAVE ONLY AN ISOLATED
MENTION IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...COOL
AIR ALOFT WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ENHANCED BY A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOSS OF HEATING
WILL END POP CHANCES THIS EVENING. WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
SHALLOW CU FORM IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION SETS UP FOR WEDNESDAY...WHEN COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL SEE THE
ATMOSPHERE BRIEFLY DESTABILIZE IN THE EVENING. MUCH DEPENDS ON
INSTABILITY BASED OFF GFS ML DEWPOINTS...WHICH TOP OUT IN THE MID
60S. ANY LOWER AND MOST LIKELY WE WILL BE CAPPED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TODAY...THOUGH LIMITED BY CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS. A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG TERM IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA ALONG
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS. THE MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA ALONG WITH A COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE
BREEZY/WINDY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE COOL
FRONT. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A LOT OF MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA. SUNDAY MAY END UP BEING A LITTLE WARMER AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTH.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WILL TAKE
THE VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THESE MAY AFFECT ABR AND ATY.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SOME INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
...EXPECT MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DEVELOP AGAIN. SOME OF THESE MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS. INSERTED
SOME VICINITY SHOWERS IN AT ALL LOCATIONS. THESE WILL MOVE ON TO
THE EAST MONDAY EVENING.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 010910
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
410 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROF OVERHEAD RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
MORNING BUT MOST HAVE DISSIPATED SO WILL LEAVE ONLY AN ISOLATED
MENTION IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...COOL
AIR ALOFT WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ENHANCED BY A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOSS OF HEATING
WILL END POP CHANCES THIS EVENING. WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
SHALLOW CU FORM IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION SETS UP FOR WEDNESDAY...WHEN COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL SEE THE
ATMOSPHERE BRIEFLY DESTABILIZE IN THE EVENING. MUCH DEPENDS ON
INSTABILITY BASED OFF GFS ML DEWPOINTS...WHICH TOP OUT IN THE MID
60S. ANY LOWER AND MOST LIKELY WE WILL BE CAPPED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TODAY...THOUGH LIMITED BY CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS. A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG TERM IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA ALONG
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS. THE MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA ALONG WITH A COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE
BREEZY/WINDY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE COOL
FRONT. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A LOT OF MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA. SUNDAY MAY END UP BEING A LITTLE WARMER AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTH.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WILL TAKE
THE VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THESE MAY AFFECT ABR AND ATY.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SOME INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
...EXPECT MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DEVELOP AGAIN. SOME OF THESE MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS. INSERTED
SOME VICINITY SHOWERS IN AT ALL LOCATIONS. THESE WILL MOVE ON TO
THE EAST MONDAY EVENING.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 010909
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
309 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WYOMING. A
FEW MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN WYOMING. A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING
BORDER. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WYOMING THIS MORNING AND
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHORTWAVE WILL BE EFFICIENT IN GENERATING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING..WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WITH CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR LOW END OF GUIDANCE. STRONG
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY...WITH
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SUNNY AND WARMER
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE CONUS
FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS WED/THU. MODELS SHOW DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST FORCING AND BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE CWA...THOUGH FAR NW SD COULD SEE SOME PRECIP CLIP THE AREA
WED NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WED/THU
WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION. ABOVE AVG TEMPS WED WILL GIVE
WAY TO COOLER THAN AVG TEMPS THUR. BEYOND THU THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AS A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP PRECIP OVER THE AREA AS UPPER WAVES
CROSS THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW. THE ECM IS DRIER...SO WILL GO WITH SL
CHC POPS FOR NOW. NEAR TO BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TODAY AS
A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA. PRECIP WILL THEN PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...79
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KUNR 010909
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
309 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WYOMING. A
FEW MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN WYOMING. A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING
BORDER. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WYOMING THIS MORNING AND
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHORTWAVE WILL BE EFFICIENT IN GENERATING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING..WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WITH CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR LOW END OF GUIDANCE. STRONG
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY...WITH
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SUNNY AND WARMER
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE CONUS
FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS WED/THU. MODELS SHOW DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST FORCING AND BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE CWA...THOUGH FAR NW SD COULD SEE SOME PRECIP CLIP THE AREA
WED NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WED/THU
WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION. ABOVE AVG TEMPS WED WILL GIVE
WAY TO COOLER THAN AVG TEMPS THUR. BEYOND THU THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AS A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP PRECIP OVER THE AREA AS UPPER WAVES
CROSS THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW. THE ECM IS DRIER...SO WILL GO WITH SL
CHC POPS FOR NOW. NEAR TO BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TODAY AS
A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA. PRECIP WILL THEN PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...79
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KABR 010608 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
108 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
POTENT SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR OVER WYOMING. AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE...OMEGA AND UPPER JET MAX HELPING TO MAINTAIN BAND OF
RAINFALL THAT HAS TREKKED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO NORTHEAST SD
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING POPS FOR THIS
BAND OF RAIN AS IT APPEARS IT WILL SURVIVE MOST IF NOT ALL THE WAY
ACROSS THE CWA. HRRR PICKING UP ON THIS QUITE NICELY.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE BUT WITH MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY. ONLY QUESTION IS THE DEGREE OF AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIP. SOME MODELS GREATER THAN OTHERS...WITH THE HRRR
PARTICULARLY DRY AND SORT OF THE OUTLIER. MOST OTHER MODELS HAVE
ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SD TONIGHT.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY AND LINGERED THEM A BIT LONGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS NSSL WRF STILL SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER
SOUTHEAST SD AT 09Z TONIGHT.

A WEAKER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL
PROVIDE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS. AREAL COVERAGE DOES
NOT APPEAR IT WILL QUITE MATCH UP TO WHATS MOVING INTO WESTERN SD
RIGHT NOW...BUT WORTHY OF 20/30 POPS NONETHELESS. AGAIN A LACK OF
INSTABILITY TOMORROW SO SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW.

TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH NO NOTABLE SYSTEMS IN THE AREA. 500
MB HEIGHTS RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL BUMP UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
MOST AREAS.




.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD STARTS OFF SOMEWHAT ACTIVE AS FAIRLY
STRONG SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BUT DO SUGGEST
CAPPING MIGHT FORCE MOST ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS POPS
NO HIGHER THAN CHC NEEDED AT THIS POINT. BEHIND THE FRONT IT LOOKS
FAIRLY DRY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PROVES
DOMINANT. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF ABOVE NORMAL AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WILL TAKE
THE VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THESE MAY AFFECT ABR AND ATY.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SOME INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
...EXPECT MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DEVELOP AGAIN. SOME OF THESE MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS. INSERTED
SOME VICINITY SHOWERS IN AT ALL LOCATIONS. THESE WILL MOVE ON TO
THE EAST MONDAY EVENING.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 010608 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
108 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
POTENT SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR OVER WYOMING. AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE...OMEGA AND UPPER JET MAX HELPING TO MAINTAIN BAND OF
RAINFALL THAT HAS TREKKED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO NORTHEAST SD
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING POPS FOR THIS
BAND OF RAIN AS IT APPEARS IT WILL SURVIVE MOST IF NOT ALL THE WAY
ACROSS THE CWA. HRRR PICKING UP ON THIS QUITE NICELY.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE BUT WITH MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY. ONLY QUESTION IS THE DEGREE OF AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIP. SOME MODELS GREATER THAN OTHERS...WITH THE HRRR
PARTICULARLY DRY AND SORT OF THE OUTLIER. MOST OTHER MODELS HAVE
ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SD TONIGHT.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY AND LINGERED THEM A BIT LONGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS NSSL WRF STILL SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER
SOUTHEAST SD AT 09Z TONIGHT.

A WEAKER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL
PROVIDE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS. AREAL COVERAGE DOES
NOT APPEAR IT WILL QUITE MATCH UP TO WHATS MOVING INTO WESTERN SD
RIGHT NOW...BUT WORTHY OF 20/30 POPS NONETHELESS. AGAIN A LACK OF
INSTABILITY TOMORROW SO SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW.

TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH NO NOTABLE SYSTEMS IN THE AREA. 500
MB HEIGHTS RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL BUMP UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
MOST AREAS.




.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD STARTS OFF SOMEWHAT ACTIVE AS FAIRLY
STRONG SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BUT DO SUGGEST
CAPPING MIGHT FORCE MOST ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS POPS
NO HIGHER THAN CHC NEEDED AT THIS POINT. BEHIND THE FRONT IT LOOKS
FAIRLY DRY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PROVES
DOMINANT. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF ABOVE NORMAL AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WILL TAKE
THE VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THESE MAY AFFECT ABR AND ATY.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SOME INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
...EXPECT MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DEVELOP AGAIN. SOME OF THESE MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS. INSERTED
SOME VICINITY SHOWERS IN AT ALL LOCATIONS. THESE WILL MOVE ON TO
THE EAST MONDAY EVENING.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 010459
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1059 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
MN...WITH COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE TROF MOVING EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND
PLAINS. LAST NIGHTS WAVE HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE
THE NEXT ONE IS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD
AND WESTERN NEB. KUDX RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD...WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY GENERALLY OVER AND AROUND THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS
ARE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S WITH NORTHERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY AS
THIS LATEST DISTURBANCE EXITS THIS EVENING AND THE NEXT ONE PUSHES
THROUGH ON MONDAY. A BREAK IN THE PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA...ENDING ACROSS NORTHEAST WY BY EARLY
EVENING AND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN SD DURING THE EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS DURING THE
EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE WAVE FOR A WHILE...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST
SD. A COOL NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...COOLEST OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND USUAL VALLEY LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER COOL DAY CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS NUMEROUS AS
TODAY...BUT SHOULD BE AT LEAST SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS MOST
AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH 60S
OVER THE BLACK HILLS. THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE
MINIMAL AT BEST WITH RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR STRONG
STORMS. SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BRINGING A FLAT UPPER RIDGE/THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. RESULT WILL BE DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. A
SPIRITED SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY BRINGING A SHARP COLD FRONT AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. SMALL POPS LOOK REASONABLE BEHIND FRONT THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1057 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND PARTS OF FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY MORNING AND THEN WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 010459
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1059 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
MN...WITH COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE TROF MOVING EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND
PLAINS. LAST NIGHTS WAVE HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE
THE NEXT ONE IS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD
AND WESTERN NEB. KUDX RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD...WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY GENERALLY OVER AND AROUND THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS
ARE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S WITH NORTHERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY AS
THIS LATEST DISTURBANCE EXITS THIS EVENING AND THE NEXT ONE PUSHES
THROUGH ON MONDAY. A BREAK IN THE PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA...ENDING ACROSS NORTHEAST WY BY EARLY
EVENING AND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN SD DURING THE EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS DURING THE
EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE WAVE FOR A WHILE...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST
SD. A COOL NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...COOLEST OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND USUAL VALLEY LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER COOL DAY CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS NUMEROUS AS
TODAY...BUT SHOULD BE AT LEAST SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS MOST
AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH 60S
OVER THE BLACK HILLS. THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE
MINIMAL AT BEST WITH RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR STRONG
STORMS. SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BRINGING A FLAT UPPER RIDGE/THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. RESULT WILL BE DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. A
SPIRITED SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY BRINGING A SHARP COLD FRONT AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. SMALL POPS LOOK REASONABLE BEHIND FRONT THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1057 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND PARTS OF FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY MORNING AND THEN WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KFSD 010442
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1142 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

JUST WEST OF MARSHALL MN TO SIOUX FALLS SD TO JUST WEST OF SIOUX
CITY. EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HWO TO FOCUS ON THE HIGHWAY 60 AND EAST
CORRIDOR...WHERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 22Z WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATE TORNADOES.
WITH NEAR SURFACE LAYER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST...STILL NOT A TON OF
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...BUT STILL SOME DECENT SPEED SHEAR TO AID IN
STORM ORGANIZATION.  BETTER BACKED FLOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ALONG
THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA AIDING IN BETTER
FELICITY. DO NOT EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO WORK MUCH FURTHER NORTH
THAN HIGHWAY 30 SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...THEREFORE...MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY WIND AND HAIL DRIVEN FOR THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.  WITH AFOREMENTIONED SPEED
SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG AND MINIMAL CAP...EXPECT
STORMS TO DEVELOP AS SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM SOUTHEAST AIDS IN UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND LIFT.

EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 03Z.  STILL MAY
HAVE SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.  FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY GENERATE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER POTENTIAL. LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS WOULD
BE LIGHT AND NOTHING SEVERE EXPECTED. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A VERY NICE DAY WITH RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITY...WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE CONSRAW OUTPUT GENERALLY MORE ACCURATE WITH STRONGER
WINDS...SO MAINLY LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTH AS
WELL SO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY REACH THE
MID 90S IN SOME SPOTS. WARM ADVECTION AND A WEAK WAVE ALSO SUPPORT
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA SO WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE IN THERE.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE OVERALL PATTERN
LOOKS VERY EARLY FALL LIKE WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND
STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY STILL SEES A FRONT COMING INTO THE AREA WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TOWARDS A WARM THURSDAY MORNING AND STILL WARM
THURSDAY...BUT WITH MODIFYING OR COOLING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THIS COOLER AIR REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
POSSIBLY A BIT BREEZY ON FRIDAY BUT LIKELY LIGHT WINDS ON SATURDAY.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON PATTERN LEADING INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME LOCKING
THE COOL AIR IN THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE WEAK RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON A
FEW OTHERS. EITHER WAY LIKELY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY. STILL REMAINS A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A GOOD RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION FOLLOWS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE GOOD
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON MOST OF THE MODELS. MAY UP POPS A BIT DURING
THIS TIME. MORE THAN LIKELY THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRYS TO STAY IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIRES MODELS ALL POINT TO MORE SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND RADAR BACKS UP WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ISNT TOO HIGH THAT TAF LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE MEASURABLE RAIN. SO AT THIS POINT DIDN NOT MENTION
CHANCE FOR -SHRA BUT DID INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR CLOUDS. AFTER
WAVE GOES THROUGH...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY DAWN AND SKIES WHOULD
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR -TSRA
WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT ONLY MENTION A PROB30 AT
KHON. CHANCES FOR KFSD AND KSUX WILL BE LATER...MORE THAN LIKELY
OUTSIDE THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...HEITKAMP




000
FXUS63 KFSD 010442
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1142 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

JUST WEST OF MARSHALL MN TO SIOUX FALLS SD TO JUST WEST OF SIOUX
CITY. EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HWO TO FOCUS ON THE HIGHWAY 60 AND EAST
CORRIDOR...WHERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 22Z WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATE TORNADOES.
WITH NEAR SURFACE LAYER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST...STILL NOT A TON OF
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...BUT STILL SOME DECENT SPEED SHEAR TO AID IN
STORM ORGANIZATION.  BETTER BACKED FLOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ALONG
THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA AIDING IN BETTER
FELICITY. DO NOT EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO WORK MUCH FURTHER NORTH
THAN HIGHWAY 30 SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...THEREFORE...MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY WIND AND HAIL DRIVEN FOR THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.  WITH AFOREMENTIONED SPEED
SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG AND MINIMAL CAP...EXPECT
STORMS TO DEVELOP AS SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM SOUTHEAST AIDS IN UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND LIFT.

EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 03Z.  STILL MAY
HAVE SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.  FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY GENERATE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER POTENTIAL. LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS WOULD
BE LIGHT AND NOTHING SEVERE EXPECTED. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A VERY NICE DAY WITH RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITY...WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE CONSRAW OUTPUT GENERALLY MORE ACCURATE WITH STRONGER
WINDS...SO MAINLY LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTH AS
WELL SO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY REACH THE
MID 90S IN SOME SPOTS. WARM ADVECTION AND A WEAK WAVE ALSO SUPPORT
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA SO WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE IN THERE.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE OVERALL PATTERN
LOOKS VERY EARLY FALL LIKE WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND
STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY STILL SEES A FRONT COMING INTO THE AREA WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TOWARDS A WARM THURSDAY MORNING AND STILL WARM
THURSDAY...BUT WITH MODIFYING OR COOLING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THIS COOLER AIR REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
POSSIBLY A BIT BREEZY ON FRIDAY BUT LIKELY LIGHT WINDS ON SATURDAY.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON PATTERN LEADING INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME LOCKING
THE COOL AIR IN THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE WEAK RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON A
FEW OTHERS. EITHER WAY LIKELY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY. STILL REMAINS A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A GOOD RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION FOLLOWS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE GOOD
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON MOST OF THE MODELS. MAY UP POPS A BIT DURING
THIS TIME. MORE THAN LIKELY THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRYS TO STAY IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIRES MODELS ALL POINT TO MORE SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND RADAR BACKS UP WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ISNT TOO HIGH THAT TAF LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE MEASURABLE RAIN. SO AT THIS POINT DIDN NOT MENTION
CHANCE FOR -SHRA BUT DID INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR CLOUDS. AFTER
WAVE GOES THROUGH...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY DAWN AND SKIES WHOULD
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR -TSRA
WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT ONLY MENTION A PROB30 AT
KHON. CHANCES FOR KFSD AND KSUX WILL BE LATER...MORE THAN LIKELY
OUTSIDE THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...HEITKAMP



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