Home > Products > State Listing > South Dakota Data
Latest:
 AFDUNR |  AFDABR |  AFDFSD |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KFSD 061749
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1149 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY IS FORECAST HIGHS. A MILD FLOW OF WESTERLY
SURFACE WIND WILL DOMINATE...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS AND WE HAVE LOST SNOW COVER OVER OUR ENTIRE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. YESTERDAY...THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE BEING WARMER PROVED THE BEST ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT HAD
LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER. THE TREND LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY...
ESPECIALLY NOTING A WEST WIND IS IN STORE. THEREFORE FAVORED THE
ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE WHERE SNOW COVER DOES NOT EXIST. WHERE SNOW COVER
STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AND LOCATIONS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29...FAVORED MORE OF THE AMERICAN MOS GUIDANCE BLENDS TO
KEEP HIGHS IN THOSE LOCATIONS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. BUT WHERE
AREAS OUR SNOW FREE...SEE NO REASON WHY MID 40S TO MID 50S SHOULD
NOT PAN OUT. ONE NOTE ABOUT SURFACE WINDS...NOT MUCH OF A GRADIENT
EXISTS BUT WINDS ARE A BIT BRISK IN THE MIXED LAYER...SO WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS PREVAIL IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. MID CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...
ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN HALF. IN ADDITION...ALL MODELS
HAVE NOW BACKED OFF THE STRATUS BEHIND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND MOVING IN VERY LATE TONIGHT. WITH A LACK
OF ASCENT AND THE STRATUS DEPTH LOOKING A BIT SHALLOW IN OUR
NORTH...FOR BETTER OR WORSE DECIDED TO NOT KEEP THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR FREEZING SPRINKLE IN OUR
NORTH UNDER THE MID CLOUDS. BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THAT LOOKS A BIT
WEAK AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS LOWS STILL LOOK ON TARGET WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

BETWEEN MINOR COOL INTRUSIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...WE HAVE A SHORT
WAVE PUSHING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NOT MUCH DYNAMIC SUPPORT
BUT DECENT THERMAL BANDING DEVELOPING IN PRIME POSITION OVER THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE LIGHT SNOW CHANCE NORTH AND
EAST AT A VERY MODEST LEVEL...30 PERCENT MAX...BECAUSE OF THE WIMPY
DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THERE IS ALSO THE QUESTION OF POSITION OF ANY LIGHT
SNOW BANDS. FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP THE THREAT OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA THOUGH MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS HINT AT
A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK. THE QUESTIONABLE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION IS THE KEY...FOR A HIGHER THREAT WOULD PROBABLY SLIP THE
MAX POPS SOUTH A BIT...BUT WHATEVER DYNAMIC SUPPORT THERE IS SEEMS
TO BE TO THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO END THE MENTION BY SUNDAY
MORNING THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS AT DECENT NON MENTION LEVELS FAR EAST
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DAYTIME WILL BE DRY. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE VARIABLE SATURDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS IN THE COOL PUSH
DECREASING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHILE HIGHER
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT WAVE.
SUNDAY CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE STEADILY. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO 50
PLUS SOUTHWEST.

AM GOING WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IDEA OF A DRY AND VERY MILD
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MEANS IGNORING THE 00Z GFS WHICH SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH ITS COOL PUSH TUESDAY...AN OBVIOUS RESPONSE TO
ITS HANDLING OF A VERY STRONG CANADIAN WAVE DIGGING TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE EC IS MUCH MORE MODEST ON THIS AND THE CANADIAN/GEM
DOES NOT REALLY HAVE IT AT ALL. ALL THIS MEANS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH IS NOT TOO VIOLENTLY WARM COMPARED
TO THE WARMING THAT CAN HAPPEN THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN FACT IF THE
VERY MILD PATTERN REMAINS UNDENTED...SOME 70 PLUS HIGHS WEST DURING
MIDWEEK WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN THE GFS BRINGS UPPER
RIDGING BACK PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER ITS COOL INTRUSION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 12Z
SATURDAY. MVFR OR LOW END VFR STRATUS WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SPREAD
INTO ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
NAM...GFS AND SREF INDICATE THAT BOTH KHON AND KFSD WILL LIKELY
SEE MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER AROUND 15Z BUT KSUX MAY REMAIN JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE STRATUS AREA.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 061749
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1149 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY IS FORECAST HIGHS. A MILD FLOW OF WESTERLY
SURFACE WIND WILL DOMINATE...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS AND WE HAVE LOST SNOW COVER OVER OUR ENTIRE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. YESTERDAY...THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE BEING WARMER PROVED THE BEST ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT HAD
LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER. THE TREND LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY...
ESPECIALLY NOTING A WEST WIND IS IN STORE. THEREFORE FAVORED THE
ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE WHERE SNOW COVER DOES NOT EXIST. WHERE SNOW COVER
STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AND LOCATIONS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29...FAVORED MORE OF THE AMERICAN MOS GUIDANCE BLENDS TO
KEEP HIGHS IN THOSE LOCATIONS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. BUT WHERE
AREAS OUR SNOW FREE...SEE NO REASON WHY MID 40S TO MID 50S SHOULD
NOT PAN OUT. ONE NOTE ABOUT SURFACE WINDS...NOT MUCH OF A GRADIENT
EXISTS BUT WINDS ARE A BIT BRISK IN THE MIXED LAYER...SO WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS PREVAIL IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. MID CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...
ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN HALF. IN ADDITION...ALL MODELS
HAVE NOW BACKED OFF THE STRATUS BEHIND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND MOVING IN VERY LATE TONIGHT. WITH A LACK
OF ASCENT AND THE STRATUS DEPTH LOOKING A BIT SHALLOW IN OUR
NORTH...FOR BETTER OR WORSE DECIDED TO NOT KEEP THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR FREEZING SPRINKLE IN OUR
NORTH UNDER THE MID CLOUDS. BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THAT LOOKS A BIT
WEAK AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS LOWS STILL LOOK ON TARGET WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

BETWEEN MINOR COOL INTRUSIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...WE HAVE A SHORT
WAVE PUSHING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NOT MUCH DYNAMIC SUPPORT
BUT DECENT THERMAL BANDING DEVELOPING IN PRIME POSITION OVER THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE LIGHT SNOW CHANCE NORTH AND
EAST AT A VERY MODEST LEVEL...30 PERCENT MAX...BECAUSE OF THE WIMPY
DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THERE IS ALSO THE QUESTION OF POSITION OF ANY LIGHT
SNOW BANDS. FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP THE THREAT OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA THOUGH MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS HINT AT
A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK. THE QUESTIONABLE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION IS THE KEY...FOR A HIGHER THREAT WOULD PROBABLY SLIP THE
MAX POPS SOUTH A BIT...BUT WHATEVER DYNAMIC SUPPORT THERE IS SEEMS
TO BE TO THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO END THE MENTION BY SUNDAY
MORNING THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS AT DECENT NON MENTION LEVELS FAR EAST
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DAYTIME WILL BE DRY. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE VARIABLE SATURDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS IN THE COOL PUSH
DECREASING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHILE HIGHER
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT WAVE.
SUNDAY CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE STEADILY. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO 50
PLUS SOUTHWEST.

AM GOING WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IDEA OF A DRY AND VERY MILD
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MEANS IGNORING THE 00Z GFS WHICH SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH ITS COOL PUSH TUESDAY...AN OBVIOUS RESPONSE TO
ITS HANDLING OF A VERY STRONG CANADIAN WAVE DIGGING TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE EC IS MUCH MORE MODEST ON THIS AND THE CANADIAN/GEM
DOES NOT REALLY HAVE IT AT ALL. ALL THIS MEANS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH IS NOT TOO VIOLENTLY WARM COMPARED
TO THE WARMING THAT CAN HAPPEN THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN FACT IF THE
VERY MILD PATTERN REMAINS UNDENTED...SOME 70 PLUS HIGHS WEST DURING
MIDWEEK WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN THE GFS BRINGS UPPER
RIDGING BACK PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER ITS COOL INTRUSION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 12Z
SATURDAY. MVFR OR LOW END VFR STRATUS WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SPREAD
INTO ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
NAM...GFS AND SREF INDICATE THAT BOTH KHON AND KFSD WILL LIKELY
SEE MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER AROUND 15Z BUT KSUX MAY REMAIN JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE STRATUS AREA.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 061749
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1149 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY IS FORECAST HIGHS. A MILD FLOW OF WESTERLY
SURFACE WIND WILL DOMINATE...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS AND WE HAVE LOST SNOW COVER OVER OUR ENTIRE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. YESTERDAY...THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE BEING WARMER PROVED THE BEST ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT HAD
LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER. THE TREND LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY...
ESPECIALLY NOTING A WEST WIND IS IN STORE. THEREFORE FAVORED THE
ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE WHERE SNOW COVER DOES NOT EXIST. WHERE SNOW COVER
STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AND LOCATIONS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29...FAVORED MORE OF THE AMERICAN MOS GUIDANCE BLENDS TO
KEEP HIGHS IN THOSE LOCATIONS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. BUT WHERE
AREAS OUR SNOW FREE...SEE NO REASON WHY MID 40S TO MID 50S SHOULD
NOT PAN OUT. ONE NOTE ABOUT SURFACE WINDS...NOT MUCH OF A GRADIENT
EXISTS BUT WINDS ARE A BIT BRISK IN THE MIXED LAYER...SO WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS PREVAIL IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. MID CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...
ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN HALF. IN ADDITION...ALL MODELS
HAVE NOW BACKED OFF THE STRATUS BEHIND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND MOVING IN VERY LATE TONIGHT. WITH A LACK
OF ASCENT AND THE STRATUS DEPTH LOOKING A BIT SHALLOW IN OUR
NORTH...FOR BETTER OR WORSE DECIDED TO NOT KEEP THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR FREEZING SPRINKLE IN OUR
NORTH UNDER THE MID CLOUDS. BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THAT LOOKS A BIT
WEAK AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS LOWS STILL LOOK ON TARGET WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

BETWEEN MINOR COOL INTRUSIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...WE HAVE A SHORT
WAVE PUSHING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NOT MUCH DYNAMIC SUPPORT
BUT DECENT THERMAL BANDING DEVELOPING IN PRIME POSITION OVER THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE LIGHT SNOW CHANCE NORTH AND
EAST AT A VERY MODEST LEVEL...30 PERCENT MAX...BECAUSE OF THE WIMPY
DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THERE IS ALSO THE QUESTION OF POSITION OF ANY LIGHT
SNOW BANDS. FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP THE THREAT OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA THOUGH MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS HINT AT
A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK. THE QUESTIONABLE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION IS THE KEY...FOR A HIGHER THREAT WOULD PROBABLY SLIP THE
MAX POPS SOUTH A BIT...BUT WHATEVER DYNAMIC SUPPORT THERE IS SEEMS
TO BE TO THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO END THE MENTION BY SUNDAY
MORNING THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS AT DECENT NON MENTION LEVELS FAR EAST
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DAYTIME WILL BE DRY. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE VARIABLE SATURDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS IN THE COOL PUSH
DECREASING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHILE HIGHER
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT WAVE.
SUNDAY CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE STEADILY. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO 50
PLUS SOUTHWEST.

AM GOING WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IDEA OF A DRY AND VERY MILD
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MEANS IGNORING THE 00Z GFS WHICH SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH ITS COOL PUSH TUESDAY...AN OBVIOUS RESPONSE TO
ITS HANDLING OF A VERY STRONG CANADIAN WAVE DIGGING TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE EC IS MUCH MORE MODEST ON THIS AND THE CANADIAN/GEM
DOES NOT REALLY HAVE IT AT ALL. ALL THIS MEANS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH IS NOT TOO VIOLENTLY WARM COMPARED
TO THE WARMING THAT CAN HAPPEN THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN FACT IF THE
VERY MILD PATTERN REMAINS UNDENTED...SOME 70 PLUS HIGHS WEST DURING
MIDWEEK WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN THE GFS BRINGS UPPER
RIDGING BACK PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER ITS COOL INTRUSION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 12Z
SATURDAY. MVFR OR LOW END VFR STRATUS WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SPREAD
INTO ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
NAM...GFS AND SREF INDICATE THAT BOTH KHON AND KFSD WILL LIKELY
SEE MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER AROUND 15Z BUT KSUX MAY REMAIN JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE STRATUS AREA.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 061749
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1149 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY IS FORECAST HIGHS. A MILD FLOW OF WESTERLY
SURFACE WIND WILL DOMINATE...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS AND WE HAVE LOST SNOW COVER OVER OUR ENTIRE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. YESTERDAY...THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE BEING WARMER PROVED THE BEST ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT HAD
LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER. THE TREND LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY...
ESPECIALLY NOTING A WEST WIND IS IN STORE. THEREFORE FAVORED THE
ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE WHERE SNOW COVER DOES NOT EXIST. WHERE SNOW COVER
STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AND LOCATIONS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29...FAVORED MORE OF THE AMERICAN MOS GUIDANCE BLENDS TO
KEEP HIGHS IN THOSE LOCATIONS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. BUT WHERE
AREAS OUR SNOW FREE...SEE NO REASON WHY MID 40S TO MID 50S SHOULD
NOT PAN OUT. ONE NOTE ABOUT SURFACE WINDS...NOT MUCH OF A GRADIENT
EXISTS BUT WINDS ARE A BIT BRISK IN THE MIXED LAYER...SO WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS PREVAIL IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. MID CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...
ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN HALF. IN ADDITION...ALL MODELS
HAVE NOW BACKED OFF THE STRATUS BEHIND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND MOVING IN VERY LATE TONIGHT. WITH A LACK
OF ASCENT AND THE STRATUS DEPTH LOOKING A BIT SHALLOW IN OUR
NORTH...FOR BETTER OR WORSE DECIDED TO NOT KEEP THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR FREEZING SPRINKLE IN OUR
NORTH UNDER THE MID CLOUDS. BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THAT LOOKS A BIT
WEAK AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS LOWS STILL LOOK ON TARGET WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

BETWEEN MINOR COOL INTRUSIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...WE HAVE A SHORT
WAVE PUSHING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NOT MUCH DYNAMIC SUPPORT
BUT DECENT THERMAL BANDING DEVELOPING IN PRIME POSITION OVER THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE LIGHT SNOW CHANCE NORTH AND
EAST AT A VERY MODEST LEVEL...30 PERCENT MAX...BECAUSE OF THE WIMPY
DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THERE IS ALSO THE QUESTION OF POSITION OF ANY LIGHT
SNOW BANDS. FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP THE THREAT OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA THOUGH MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS HINT AT
A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK. THE QUESTIONABLE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION IS THE KEY...FOR A HIGHER THREAT WOULD PROBABLY SLIP THE
MAX POPS SOUTH A BIT...BUT WHATEVER DYNAMIC SUPPORT THERE IS SEEMS
TO BE TO THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO END THE MENTION BY SUNDAY
MORNING THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS AT DECENT NON MENTION LEVELS FAR EAST
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DAYTIME WILL BE DRY. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE VARIABLE SATURDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS IN THE COOL PUSH
DECREASING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHILE HIGHER
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT WAVE.
SUNDAY CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE STEADILY. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO 50
PLUS SOUTHWEST.

AM GOING WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IDEA OF A DRY AND VERY MILD
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MEANS IGNORING THE 00Z GFS WHICH SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH ITS COOL PUSH TUESDAY...AN OBVIOUS RESPONSE TO
ITS HANDLING OF A VERY STRONG CANADIAN WAVE DIGGING TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE EC IS MUCH MORE MODEST ON THIS AND THE CANADIAN/GEM
DOES NOT REALLY HAVE IT AT ALL. ALL THIS MEANS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH IS NOT TOO VIOLENTLY WARM COMPARED
TO THE WARMING THAT CAN HAPPEN THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN FACT IF THE
VERY MILD PATTERN REMAINS UNDENTED...SOME 70 PLUS HIGHS WEST DURING
MIDWEEK WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN THE GFS BRINGS UPPER
RIDGING BACK PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER ITS COOL INTRUSION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 12Z
SATURDAY. MVFR OR LOW END VFR STRATUS WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SPREAD
INTO ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
NAM...GFS AND SREF INDICATE THAT BOTH KHON AND KFSD WILL LIKELY
SEE MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER AROUND 15Z BUT KSUX MAY REMAIN JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE STRATUS AREA.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KABR 061749 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1149 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1017 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE TODAY PERIOD WERE IN REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES. NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES OVER THE
SNOW-COVERED EASTERN ZONES...AND 3 TO 5 DEGREES OUT WEST OVER
BARE-GROUND AREAS...BASED LARGELY OFF WHAT DRY ADIABATIC MIXING
WOULD PRODUCE OFF THE KUNR/KBIS/KABR 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AS
WELL AS THE LATEST AVAILABLE RAPID REFRESH OUTPUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MILD TEMPS ALOFT ARE PUSHING INTO THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT. SEEING THE TYPICAL WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH COLDER VALLEY READINGS AND WARMER ELEVATED AREAS
WITH A TOUCH MORE WIND TO AID IN MIXING. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WARMER READINGS
ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT RESIDE. WAS CAREFUL TO
KEEP SNOW COVERED AREAS COOLER TODAY AS IT WILL TAKE A DAY OR TWO
TO REMOVE THE REMAINING SNOW COVER BEFORE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL
CAN BE REACHED.

TWO WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM. THE FIRST ONCE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE
SECOND ONE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SATURDAY NIGHT WAVE
IS LOOKING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN TONIGHTS...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS FOR IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THEN RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...JUST REACHING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
SOME DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS. THE GFS INDICATED
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TRACKING OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS WARMER AIR IN PLACE. BOTH MODELS
ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH WAA TAKING PLACE ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS ON WARMER AIR REMAINING OVER THE
REGION...WITH THE GFS JUST NOT AS WARM AS THE ECMWF. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION...WHICH INDICATES
40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
STREAM OVER THE AREA AND WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST.
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THERE IS A WEAK WAVE OF
ENERGY THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE AT THE KMBG/KABR/KATY TAF SITES. WHILE NOT MENTIONED IN
THE TAF FORECAST...THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO SNOWMELT THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT DOES DEVELOP EXPECT ONLY
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SERR







000
FXUS63 KABR 061749 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1149 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1017 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE TODAY PERIOD WERE IN REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES. NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES OVER THE
SNOW-COVERED EASTERN ZONES...AND 3 TO 5 DEGREES OUT WEST OVER
BARE-GROUND AREAS...BASED LARGELY OFF WHAT DRY ADIABATIC MIXING
WOULD PRODUCE OFF THE KUNR/KBIS/KABR 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AS
WELL AS THE LATEST AVAILABLE RAPID REFRESH OUTPUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MILD TEMPS ALOFT ARE PUSHING INTO THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT. SEEING THE TYPICAL WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH COLDER VALLEY READINGS AND WARMER ELEVATED AREAS
WITH A TOUCH MORE WIND TO AID IN MIXING. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WARMER READINGS
ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT RESIDE. WAS CAREFUL TO
KEEP SNOW COVERED AREAS COOLER TODAY AS IT WILL TAKE A DAY OR TWO
TO REMOVE THE REMAINING SNOW COVER BEFORE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL
CAN BE REACHED.

TWO WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM. THE FIRST ONCE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE
SECOND ONE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SATURDAY NIGHT WAVE
IS LOOKING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN TONIGHTS...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS FOR IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THEN RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...JUST REACHING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
SOME DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS. THE GFS INDICATED
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TRACKING OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS WARMER AIR IN PLACE. BOTH MODELS
ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH WAA TAKING PLACE ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS ON WARMER AIR REMAINING OVER THE
REGION...WITH THE GFS JUST NOT AS WARM AS THE ECMWF. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION...WHICH INDICATES
40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
STREAM OVER THE AREA AND WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST.
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THERE IS A WEAK WAVE OF
ENERGY THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE AT THE KMBG/KABR/KATY TAF SITES. WHILE NOT MENTIONED IN
THE TAF FORECAST...THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO SNOWMELT THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT DOES DEVELOP EXPECT ONLY
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SERR






000
FXUS63 KABR 061749 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1149 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1017 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE TODAY PERIOD WERE IN REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES. NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES OVER THE
SNOW-COVERED EASTERN ZONES...AND 3 TO 5 DEGREES OUT WEST OVER
BARE-GROUND AREAS...BASED LARGELY OFF WHAT DRY ADIABATIC MIXING
WOULD PRODUCE OFF THE KUNR/KBIS/KABR 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AS
WELL AS THE LATEST AVAILABLE RAPID REFRESH OUTPUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MILD TEMPS ALOFT ARE PUSHING INTO THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT. SEEING THE TYPICAL WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH COLDER VALLEY READINGS AND WARMER ELEVATED AREAS
WITH A TOUCH MORE WIND TO AID IN MIXING. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WARMER READINGS
ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT RESIDE. WAS CAREFUL TO
KEEP SNOW COVERED AREAS COOLER TODAY AS IT WILL TAKE A DAY OR TWO
TO REMOVE THE REMAINING SNOW COVER BEFORE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL
CAN BE REACHED.

TWO WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM. THE FIRST ONCE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE
SECOND ONE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SATURDAY NIGHT WAVE
IS LOOKING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN TONIGHTS...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS FOR IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THEN RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...JUST REACHING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
SOME DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS. THE GFS INDICATED
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TRACKING OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS WARMER AIR IN PLACE. BOTH MODELS
ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH WAA TAKING PLACE ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS ON WARMER AIR REMAINING OVER THE
REGION...WITH THE GFS JUST NOT AS WARM AS THE ECMWF. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION...WHICH INDICATES
40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
STREAM OVER THE AREA AND WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST.
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THERE IS A WEAK WAVE OF
ENERGY THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE AT THE KMBG/KABR/KATY TAF SITES. WHILE NOT MENTIONED IN
THE TAF FORECAST...THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO SNOWMELT THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT DOES DEVELOP EXPECT ONLY
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SERR





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KUNR 061724
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1024 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INCREASE IN BL-850MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT HIGHS 5-10F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE CROSS NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY. MAIN RESULT WILL BE
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE
CLIPS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL THREAT
FOR -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
40S AND 50S ON SUNDAY...WITH 50S AND 60S LIKELY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KUNR 061724
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1024 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INCREASE IN BL-850MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT HIGHS 5-10F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE CROSS NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY. MAIN RESULT WILL BE
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE
CLIPS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL THREAT
FOR -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
40S AND 50S ON SUNDAY...WITH 50S AND 60S LIKELY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KABR 061621 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1021 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE TODAY PERIOD WERE IN REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES. NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES OVER THE
SNOW-COVERED EASTERN ZONES...AND 3 TO 5 DEGREES OUT WEST OVER
BARE-GROUND AREAS...BASED LARGELY OFF WHAT DRY ADIABATIC MIXING
WOULD PRODUCE OFF THE KUNR/KBIS/KABR 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AS
WELL AS THE LATEST AVAILABLE RAPID REFRESH OUTPUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MILD TEMPS ALOFT ARE PUSHING INTO THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT. SEEING THE TYPICAL WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH COLDER VALLEY READINGS AND WARMER ELEVATED AREAS
WITH A TOUCH MORE WIND TO AID IN MIXING. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WARMER READINGS
ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT RESIDE. WAS CAREFUL TO
KEEP SNOW COVERED AREAS COOLER TODAY AS IT WILL TAKE A DAY OR TWO
TO REMOVE THE REMAINING SNOW COVER BEFORE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL
CAN BE REACHED.

TWO WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM. THE FIRST ONCE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE
SECOND ONE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SATURDAY NIGHT WAVE
IS LOOKING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN TONIGHTS...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS FOR IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THEN RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...JUST REACHING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
SOME DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS. THE GFS INDICATED
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TRACKING OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS WARMER AIR IN PLACE. BOTH MODELS
ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH WAA TAKING PLACE ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS ON WARMER AIR REMAINING OVER THE
REGION...WITH THE GFS JUST NOT AS WARM AS THE ECMWF. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION...WHICH INDICATES
40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN








000
FXUS63 KABR 061621 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1021 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE TODAY PERIOD WERE IN REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES. NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES OVER THE
SNOW-COVERED EASTERN ZONES...AND 3 TO 5 DEGREES OUT WEST OVER
BARE-GROUND AREAS...BASED LARGELY OFF WHAT DRY ADIABATIC MIXING
WOULD PRODUCE OFF THE KUNR/KBIS/KABR 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AS
WELL AS THE LATEST AVAILABLE RAPID REFRESH OUTPUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MILD TEMPS ALOFT ARE PUSHING INTO THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT. SEEING THE TYPICAL WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH COLDER VALLEY READINGS AND WARMER ELEVATED AREAS
WITH A TOUCH MORE WIND TO AID IN MIXING. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WARMER READINGS
ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT RESIDE. WAS CAREFUL TO
KEEP SNOW COVERED AREAS COOLER TODAY AS IT WILL TAKE A DAY OR TWO
TO REMOVE THE REMAINING SNOW COVER BEFORE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL
CAN BE REACHED.

TWO WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM. THE FIRST ONCE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE
SECOND ONE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SATURDAY NIGHT WAVE
IS LOOKING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN TONIGHTS...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS FOR IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THEN RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...JUST REACHING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
SOME DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS. THE GFS INDICATED
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TRACKING OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS WARMER AIR IN PLACE. BOTH MODELS
ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH WAA TAKING PLACE ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS ON WARMER AIR REMAINING OVER THE
REGION...WITH THE GFS JUST NOT AS WARM AS THE ECMWF. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION...WHICH INDICATES
40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN








000
FXUS63 KABR 061621 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1021 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE TODAY PERIOD WERE IN REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES. NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES OVER THE
SNOW-COVERED EASTERN ZONES...AND 3 TO 5 DEGREES OUT WEST OVER
BARE-GROUND AREAS...BASED LARGELY OFF WHAT DRY ADIABATIC MIXING
WOULD PRODUCE OFF THE KUNR/KBIS/KABR 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AS
WELL AS THE LATEST AVAILABLE RAPID REFRESH OUTPUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MILD TEMPS ALOFT ARE PUSHING INTO THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT. SEEING THE TYPICAL WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH COLDER VALLEY READINGS AND WARMER ELEVATED AREAS
WITH A TOUCH MORE WIND TO AID IN MIXING. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WARMER READINGS
ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT RESIDE. WAS CAREFUL TO
KEEP SNOW COVERED AREAS COOLER TODAY AS IT WILL TAKE A DAY OR TWO
TO REMOVE THE REMAINING SNOW COVER BEFORE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL
CAN BE REACHED.

TWO WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM. THE FIRST ONCE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE
SECOND ONE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SATURDAY NIGHT WAVE
IS LOOKING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN TONIGHTS...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS FOR IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THEN RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...JUST REACHING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
SOME DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS. THE GFS INDICATED
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TRACKING OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS WARMER AIR IN PLACE. BOTH MODELS
ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH WAA TAKING PLACE ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS ON WARMER AIR REMAINING OVER THE
REGION...WITH THE GFS JUST NOT AS WARM AS THE ECMWF. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION...WHICH INDICATES
40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN








000
FXUS63 KABR 061621 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1021 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE TODAY PERIOD WERE IN REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES. NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES OVER THE
SNOW-COVERED EASTERN ZONES...AND 3 TO 5 DEGREES OUT WEST OVER
BARE-GROUND AREAS...BASED LARGELY OFF WHAT DRY ADIABATIC MIXING
WOULD PRODUCE OFF THE KUNR/KBIS/KABR 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AS
WELL AS THE LATEST AVAILABLE RAPID REFRESH OUTPUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MILD TEMPS ALOFT ARE PUSHING INTO THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT. SEEING THE TYPICAL WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH COLDER VALLEY READINGS AND WARMER ELEVATED AREAS
WITH A TOUCH MORE WIND TO AID IN MIXING. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WARMER READINGS
ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT RESIDE. WAS CAREFUL TO
KEEP SNOW COVERED AREAS COOLER TODAY AS IT WILL TAKE A DAY OR TWO
TO REMOVE THE REMAINING SNOW COVER BEFORE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL
CAN BE REACHED.

TWO WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM. THE FIRST ONCE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE
SECOND ONE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SATURDAY NIGHT WAVE
IS LOOKING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN TONIGHTS...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS FOR IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THEN RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...JUST REACHING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
SOME DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS. THE GFS INDICATED
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TRACKING OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS WARMER AIR IN PLACE. BOTH MODELS
ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH WAA TAKING PLACE ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS ON WARMER AIR REMAINING OVER THE
REGION...WITH THE GFS JUST NOT AS WARM AS THE ECMWF. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION...WHICH INDICATES
40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN








000
FXUS63 KABR 061128 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
528 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MILD TEMPS ALOFT ARE PUSHING INTO THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT. SEEING THE TYPICAL WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH COLDER VALLEY READINGS AND WARMER ELEVATED AREAS
WITH A TOUCH MORE WIND TO AID IN MIXING. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WARMER READINGS
ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT RESIDE. WAS CAREFUL TO
KEEP SNOW COVERED AREAS COOLER TODAY AS IT WILL TAKE A DAY OR TWO
TO REMOVE THE REMAINING SNOW COVER BEFORE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL
CAN BE REACHED.

TWO WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM. THE FIRST ONCE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE
SECOND ONE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SATURDAY NIGHT WAVE
IS LOOKING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN TONIGHTS...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS FOR IT.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THEN RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...JUST REACHING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
SOME DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS. THE GFS INDICATED
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TRACKING OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS WARMER AIR IN PLACE. BOTH MODELS
ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH WAA TAKING PLACE ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS ON WARMER AIR REMAINING OVER THE
REGION...WITH THE GFS JUST NOT AS WARM AS THE ECMWF. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION...WHICH INDICATES
40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN







000
FXUS63 KABR 061128 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
528 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MILD TEMPS ALOFT ARE PUSHING INTO THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT. SEEING THE TYPICAL WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH COLDER VALLEY READINGS AND WARMER ELEVATED AREAS
WITH A TOUCH MORE WIND TO AID IN MIXING. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WARMER READINGS
ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT RESIDE. WAS CAREFUL TO
KEEP SNOW COVERED AREAS COOLER TODAY AS IT WILL TAKE A DAY OR TWO
TO REMOVE THE REMAINING SNOW COVER BEFORE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL
CAN BE REACHED.

TWO WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM. THE FIRST ONCE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE
SECOND ONE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SATURDAY NIGHT WAVE
IS LOOKING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN TONIGHTS...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS FOR IT.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THEN RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...JUST REACHING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
SOME DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS. THE GFS INDICATED
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TRACKING OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS WARMER AIR IN PLACE. BOTH MODELS
ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH WAA TAKING PLACE ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS ON WARMER AIR REMAINING OVER THE
REGION...WITH THE GFS JUST NOT AS WARM AS THE ECMWF. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION...WHICH INDICATES
40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 061125
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
525 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY IS FORECAST HIGHS. A MILD FLOW OF WESTERLY
SURFACE WIND WILL DOMINATE...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS AND WE HAVE LOST SNOW COVER OVER OUR ENTIRE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. YESTERDAY...THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE BEING WARMER PROVED THE BEST ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT HAD
LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER. THE TREND LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY...
ESPECIALLY NOTING A WEST WIND IS IN STORE. THEREFORE FAVORED THE
ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE WHERE SNOW COVER DOES NOT EXIST. WHERE SNOW COVER
STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AND LOCATIONS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29...FAVORED MORE OF THE AMERICAN MOS GUIDANCE BLENDS TO
KEEP HIGHS IN THOSE LOCATIONS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. BUT WHERE
AREAS OUR SNOW FREE...SEE NO REASON WHY MID 40S TO MID 50S SHOULD
NOT PAN OUT. ONE NOTE ABOUT SURFACE WINDS...NOT MUCH OF A GRADIENT
EXISTS BUT WINDS ARE A BIT BRISK IN THE MIXED LAYER...SO WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS PREVAIL IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. MID CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...
ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN HALF. IN ADDITION...ALL MODELS
HAVE NOW BACKED OFF THE STRATUS BEHIND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND MOVING IN VERY LATE TONIGHT. WITH A LACK
OF ASCENT AND THE STRATUS DEPTH LOOKING A BIT SHALLOW IN OUR
NORTH...FOR BETTER OR WORSE DECIDED TO NOT KEEP THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR FREEZING SPRINKLE IN OUR
NORTH UNDER THE MID CLOUDS. BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THAT LOOKS A BIT
WEAK AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS LOWS STILL LOOK ON TARGET WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

BETWEEN MINOR COOL INTRUSIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...WE HAVE A SHORT
WAVE PUSHING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NOT MUCH DYNAMIC SUPPORT
BUT DECENT THERMAL BANDING DEVELOPING IN PRIME POSITION OVER THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE LIGHT SNOW CHANCE NORTH AND
EAST AT A VERY MODEST LEVEL...30 PERCENT MAX...BECAUSE OF THE WIMPY
DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THERE IS ALSO THE QUESTION OF POSITION OF ANY LIGHT
SNOW BANDS. FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP THE THREAT OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA THOUGH MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS HINT AT
A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK. THE QUESTIONABLE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION IS THE KEY...FOR A HIGHER THREAT WOULD PROBABLY SLIP THE
MAX POPS SOUTH A BIT...BUT WHATEVER DYNAMIC SUPPORT THERE IS SEEMS
TO BE TO THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO END THE MENTION BY SUNDAY
MORNING THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS AT DECENT NON MENTION LEVELS FAR EAST
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DAYTIME WILL BE DRY. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE VARIABLE SATURDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS IN THE COOL PUSH
DECREASING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHILE HIGHER
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT WAVE.
SUNDAY CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE STEADILY. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO 50
PLUS SOUTHWEST.

AM GOING WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IDEA OF A DRY AND VERY MILD
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MEANS IGNORING THE 00Z GFS WHICH SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH ITS COOL PUSH TUESDAY...AN OBVIOUS RESPONSE TO
ITS HANDLING OF A VERY STRONG CANADIAN WAVE DIGGING TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE EC IS MUCH MORE MODEST ON THIS AND THE CANADIAN/GEM
DOES NOT REALLY HAVE IT AT ALL. ALL THIS MEANS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH IS NOT TOO VIOLENTLY WARM COMPARED
TO THE WARMING THAT CAN HAPPEN THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN FACT IF THE
VERY MILD PATTERN REMAINS UNDENTED...SOME 70 PLUS HIGHS WEST DURING
MIDWEEK WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN THE GFS BRINGS UPPER
RIDGING BACK PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER ITS COOL INTRUSION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THERE
COULD BE SOME MVFR STRATUS HOWEVER MOVING INTO OUR FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES AROUND BROOKING SD AND MARSHALL MN BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z
SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KFSD 061125
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
525 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY IS FORECAST HIGHS. A MILD FLOW OF WESTERLY
SURFACE WIND WILL DOMINATE...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS AND WE HAVE LOST SNOW COVER OVER OUR ENTIRE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. YESTERDAY...THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE BEING WARMER PROVED THE BEST ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT HAD
LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER. THE TREND LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY...
ESPECIALLY NOTING A WEST WIND IS IN STORE. THEREFORE FAVORED THE
ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE WHERE SNOW COVER DOES NOT EXIST. WHERE SNOW COVER
STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AND LOCATIONS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29...FAVORED MORE OF THE AMERICAN MOS GUIDANCE BLENDS TO
KEEP HIGHS IN THOSE LOCATIONS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. BUT WHERE
AREAS OUR SNOW FREE...SEE NO REASON WHY MID 40S TO MID 50S SHOULD
NOT PAN OUT. ONE NOTE ABOUT SURFACE WINDS...NOT MUCH OF A GRADIENT
EXISTS BUT WINDS ARE A BIT BRISK IN THE MIXED LAYER...SO WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS PREVAIL IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. MID CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...
ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN HALF. IN ADDITION...ALL MODELS
HAVE NOW BACKED OFF THE STRATUS BEHIND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND MOVING IN VERY LATE TONIGHT. WITH A LACK
OF ASCENT AND THE STRATUS DEPTH LOOKING A BIT SHALLOW IN OUR
NORTH...FOR BETTER OR WORSE DECIDED TO NOT KEEP THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR FREEZING SPRINKLE IN OUR
NORTH UNDER THE MID CLOUDS. BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THAT LOOKS A BIT
WEAK AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS LOWS STILL LOOK ON TARGET WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

BETWEEN MINOR COOL INTRUSIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...WE HAVE A SHORT
WAVE PUSHING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NOT MUCH DYNAMIC SUPPORT
BUT DECENT THERMAL BANDING DEVELOPING IN PRIME POSITION OVER THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE LIGHT SNOW CHANCE NORTH AND
EAST AT A VERY MODEST LEVEL...30 PERCENT MAX...BECAUSE OF THE WIMPY
DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THERE IS ALSO THE QUESTION OF POSITION OF ANY LIGHT
SNOW BANDS. FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP THE THREAT OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA THOUGH MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS HINT AT
A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK. THE QUESTIONABLE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION IS THE KEY...FOR A HIGHER THREAT WOULD PROBABLY SLIP THE
MAX POPS SOUTH A BIT...BUT WHATEVER DYNAMIC SUPPORT THERE IS SEEMS
TO BE TO THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO END THE MENTION BY SUNDAY
MORNING THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS AT DECENT NON MENTION LEVELS FAR EAST
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DAYTIME WILL BE DRY. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE VARIABLE SATURDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS IN THE COOL PUSH
DECREASING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHILE HIGHER
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT WAVE.
SUNDAY CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE STEADILY. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO 50
PLUS SOUTHWEST.

AM GOING WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IDEA OF A DRY AND VERY MILD
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MEANS IGNORING THE 00Z GFS WHICH SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH ITS COOL PUSH TUESDAY...AN OBVIOUS RESPONSE TO
ITS HANDLING OF A VERY STRONG CANADIAN WAVE DIGGING TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE EC IS MUCH MORE MODEST ON THIS AND THE CANADIAN/GEM
DOES NOT REALLY HAVE IT AT ALL. ALL THIS MEANS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH IS NOT TOO VIOLENTLY WARM COMPARED
TO THE WARMING THAT CAN HAPPEN THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN FACT IF THE
VERY MILD PATTERN REMAINS UNDENTED...SOME 70 PLUS HIGHS WEST DURING
MIDWEEK WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN THE GFS BRINGS UPPER
RIDGING BACK PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER ITS COOL INTRUSION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THERE
COULD BE SOME MVFR STRATUS HOWEVER MOVING INTO OUR FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES AROUND BROOKING SD AND MARSHALL MN BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z
SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KFSD 061125
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
525 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY IS FORECAST HIGHS. A MILD FLOW OF WESTERLY
SURFACE WIND WILL DOMINATE...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS AND WE HAVE LOST SNOW COVER OVER OUR ENTIRE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. YESTERDAY...THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE BEING WARMER PROVED THE BEST ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT HAD
LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER. THE TREND LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY...
ESPECIALLY NOTING A WEST WIND IS IN STORE. THEREFORE FAVORED THE
ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE WHERE SNOW COVER DOES NOT EXIST. WHERE SNOW COVER
STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AND LOCATIONS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29...FAVORED MORE OF THE AMERICAN MOS GUIDANCE BLENDS TO
KEEP HIGHS IN THOSE LOCATIONS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. BUT WHERE
AREAS OUR SNOW FREE...SEE NO REASON WHY MID 40S TO MID 50S SHOULD
NOT PAN OUT. ONE NOTE ABOUT SURFACE WINDS...NOT MUCH OF A GRADIENT
EXISTS BUT WINDS ARE A BIT BRISK IN THE MIXED LAYER...SO WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS PREVAIL IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. MID CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...
ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN HALF. IN ADDITION...ALL MODELS
HAVE NOW BACKED OFF THE STRATUS BEHIND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND MOVING IN VERY LATE TONIGHT. WITH A LACK
OF ASCENT AND THE STRATUS DEPTH LOOKING A BIT SHALLOW IN OUR
NORTH...FOR BETTER OR WORSE DECIDED TO NOT KEEP THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR FREEZING SPRINKLE IN OUR
NORTH UNDER THE MID CLOUDS. BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THAT LOOKS A BIT
WEAK AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS LOWS STILL LOOK ON TARGET WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

BETWEEN MINOR COOL INTRUSIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...WE HAVE A SHORT
WAVE PUSHING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NOT MUCH DYNAMIC SUPPORT
BUT DECENT THERMAL BANDING DEVELOPING IN PRIME POSITION OVER THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE LIGHT SNOW CHANCE NORTH AND
EAST AT A VERY MODEST LEVEL...30 PERCENT MAX...BECAUSE OF THE WIMPY
DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THERE IS ALSO THE QUESTION OF POSITION OF ANY LIGHT
SNOW BANDS. FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP THE THREAT OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA THOUGH MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS HINT AT
A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK. THE QUESTIONABLE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION IS THE KEY...FOR A HIGHER THREAT WOULD PROBABLY SLIP THE
MAX POPS SOUTH A BIT...BUT WHATEVER DYNAMIC SUPPORT THERE IS SEEMS
TO BE TO THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO END THE MENTION BY SUNDAY
MORNING THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS AT DECENT NON MENTION LEVELS FAR EAST
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DAYTIME WILL BE DRY. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE VARIABLE SATURDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS IN THE COOL PUSH
DECREASING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHILE HIGHER
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT WAVE.
SUNDAY CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE STEADILY. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO 50
PLUS SOUTHWEST.

AM GOING WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IDEA OF A DRY AND VERY MILD
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MEANS IGNORING THE 00Z GFS WHICH SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH ITS COOL PUSH TUESDAY...AN OBVIOUS RESPONSE TO
ITS HANDLING OF A VERY STRONG CANADIAN WAVE DIGGING TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE EC IS MUCH MORE MODEST ON THIS AND THE CANADIAN/GEM
DOES NOT REALLY HAVE IT AT ALL. ALL THIS MEANS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH IS NOT TOO VIOLENTLY WARM COMPARED
TO THE WARMING THAT CAN HAPPEN THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN FACT IF THE
VERY MILD PATTERN REMAINS UNDENTED...SOME 70 PLUS HIGHS WEST DURING
MIDWEEK WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN THE GFS BRINGS UPPER
RIDGING BACK PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER ITS COOL INTRUSION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THERE
COULD BE SOME MVFR STRATUS HOWEVER MOVING INTO OUR FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES AROUND BROOKING SD AND MARSHALL MN BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z
SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KFSD 061125
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
525 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY IS FORECAST HIGHS. A MILD FLOW OF WESTERLY
SURFACE WIND WILL DOMINATE...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS AND WE HAVE LOST SNOW COVER OVER OUR ENTIRE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. YESTERDAY...THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE BEING WARMER PROVED THE BEST ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT HAD
LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER. THE TREND LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY...
ESPECIALLY NOTING A WEST WIND IS IN STORE. THEREFORE FAVORED THE
ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE WHERE SNOW COVER DOES NOT EXIST. WHERE SNOW COVER
STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AND LOCATIONS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29...FAVORED MORE OF THE AMERICAN MOS GUIDANCE BLENDS TO
KEEP HIGHS IN THOSE LOCATIONS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. BUT WHERE
AREAS OUR SNOW FREE...SEE NO REASON WHY MID 40S TO MID 50S SHOULD
NOT PAN OUT. ONE NOTE ABOUT SURFACE WINDS...NOT MUCH OF A GRADIENT
EXISTS BUT WINDS ARE A BIT BRISK IN THE MIXED LAYER...SO WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS PREVAIL IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. MID CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...
ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN HALF. IN ADDITION...ALL MODELS
HAVE NOW BACKED OFF THE STRATUS BEHIND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND MOVING IN VERY LATE TONIGHT. WITH A LACK
OF ASCENT AND THE STRATUS DEPTH LOOKING A BIT SHALLOW IN OUR
NORTH...FOR BETTER OR WORSE DECIDED TO NOT KEEP THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR FREEZING SPRINKLE IN OUR
NORTH UNDER THE MID CLOUDS. BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THAT LOOKS A BIT
WEAK AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS LOWS STILL LOOK ON TARGET WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

BETWEEN MINOR COOL INTRUSIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...WE HAVE A SHORT
WAVE PUSHING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NOT MUCH DYNAMIC SUPPORT
BUT DECENT THERMAL BANDING DEVELOPING IN PRIME POSITION OVER THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE LIGHT SNOW CHANCE NORTH AND
EAST AT A VERY MODEST LEVEL...30 PERCENT MAX...BECAUSE OF THE WIMPY
DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THERE IS ALSO THE QUESTION OF POSITION OF ANY LIGHT
SNOW BANDS. FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP THE THREAT OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA THOUGH MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS HINT AT
A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK. THE QUESTIONABLE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION IS THE KEY...FOR A HIGHER THREAT WOULD PROBABLY SLIP THE
MAX POPS SOUTH A BIT...BUT WHATEVER DYNAMIC SUPPORT THERE IS SEEMS
TO BE TO THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO END THE MENTION BY SUNDAY
MORNING THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS AT DECENT NON MENTION LEVELS FAR EAST
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DAYTIME WILL BE DRY. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE VARIABLE SATURDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS IN THE COOL PUSH
DECREASING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHILE HIGHER
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT WAVE.
SUNDAY CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE STEADILY. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO 50
PLUS SOUTHWEST.

AM GOING WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IDEA OF A DRY AND VERY MILD
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MEANS IGNORING THE 00Z GFS WHICH SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH ITS COOL PUSH TUESDAY...AN OBVIOUS RESPONSE TO
ITS HANDLING OF A VERY STRONG CANADIAN WAVE DIGGING TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE EC IS MUCH MORE MODEST ON THIS AND THE CANADIAN/GEM
DOES NOT REALLY HAVE IT AT ALL. ALL THIS MEANS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH IS NOT TOO VIOLENTLY WARM COMPARED
TO THE WARMING THAT CAN HAPPEN THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN FACT IF THE
VERY MILD PATTERN REMAINS UNDENTED...SOME 70 PLUS HIGHS WEST DURING
MIDWEEK WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN THE GFS BRINGS UPPER
RIDGING BACK PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER ITS COOL INTRUSION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THERE
COULD BE SOME MVFR STRATUS HOWEVER MOVING INTO OUR FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES AROUND BROOKING SD AND MARSHALL MN BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z
SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KUNR 061054
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
354 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INCREASE IN BL-850MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT HIGHS 5-10F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE CROSS NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY. MAIN RESULT WILL BE
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE
CLIPS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL THREAT
FOR -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
40S AND 50S ON SUNDAY...WITH 50S AND 60S LIKELY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 061054
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
354 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INCREASE IN BL-850MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT HIGHS 5-10F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE CROSS NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY. MAIN RESULT WILL BE
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE
CLIPS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL THREAT
FOR -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
40S AND 50S ON SUNDAY...WITH 50S AND 60S LIKELY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 061054
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
354 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INCREASE IN BL-850MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT HIGHS 5-10F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE CROSS NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY. MAIN RESULT WILL BE
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE
CLIPS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL THREAT
FOR -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
40S AND 50S ON SUNDAY...WITH 50S AND 60S LIKELY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 061054
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
354 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INCREASE IN BL-850MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT HIGHS 5-10F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE CROSS NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY. MAIN RESULT WILL BE
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE
CLIPS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL THREAT
FOR -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
40S AND 50S ON SUNDAY...WITH 50S AND 60S LIKELY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 061054
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
354 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INCREASE IN BL-850MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT HIGHS 5-10F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE CROSS NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY. MAIN RESULT WILL BE
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE
CLIPS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL THREAT
FOR -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
40S AND 50S ON SUNDAY...WITH 50S AND 60S LIKELY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE






000
FXUS63 KUNR 061054
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
354 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INCREASE IN BL-850MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT HIGHS 5-10F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE CROSS NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY. MAIN RESULT WILL BE
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE
CLIPS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL THREAT
FOR -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
40S AND 50S ON SUNDAY...WITH 50S AND 60S LIKELY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE






000
FXUS63 KUNR 061054
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
354 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INCREASE IN BL-850MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT HIGHS 5-10F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE CROSS NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY. MAIN RESULT WILL BE
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE
CLIPS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL THREAT
FOR -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
40S AND 50S ON SUNDAY...WITH 50S AND 60S LIKELY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE






000
FXUS63 KUNR 061054
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
354 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INCREASE IN BL-850MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT HIGHS 5-10F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE CROSS NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY. MAIN RESULT WILL BE
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE
CLIPS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL THREAT
FOR -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
40S AND 50S ON SUNDAY...WITH 50S AND 60S LIKELY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE






000
FXUS63 KABR 060914
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MILD TEMPS ALOFT ARE PUSHING INTO THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT. SEEING THE TYPICAL WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH COLDER VALLEY READINGS AND WARMER ELEVATED AREAS
WITH A TOUCH MORE WIND TO AID IN MIXING. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WARMER READINGS
ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT RESIDE. WAS CAREFUL TO
KEEP SNOW COVERED AREAS COOLER TODAY AS IT WILL TAKE A DAY OR TWO
TO REMOVE THE REMAINING SNOW COVER BEFORE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL
CAN BE REACHED.

TWO WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM. THE FIRST ONCE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE
SECOND ONE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SATURDAY NIGHT WAVE
IS LOOKING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN TONIGHTS...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS FOR IT.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THEN RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...JUST REACHING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
SOME DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS. THE GFS INDICATED
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TRACKING OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS WARMER AIR IN PLACE. BOTH MODELS
ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH WAA TAKING PLACE ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS ON WARMER AIR REMAINING OVER THE
REGION...WITH THE GFS JUST NOT AS WARM AS THE ECMWF. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION...WHICH INDICATES
40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 060914
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MILD TEMPS ALOFT ARE PUSHING INTO THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT. SEEING THE TYPICAL WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH COLDER VALLEY READINGS AND WARMER ELEVATED AREAS
WITH A TOUCH MORE WIND TO AID IN MIXING. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WARMER READINGS
ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT RESIDE. WAS CAREFUL TO
KEEP SNOW COVERED AREAS COOLER TODAY AS IT WILL TAKE A DAY OR TWO
TO REMOVE THE REMAINING SNOW COVER BEFORE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL
CAN BE REACHED.

TWO WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM. THE FIRST ONCE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE
SECOND ONE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SATURDAY NIGHT WAVE
IS LOOKING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN TONIGHTS...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS FOR IT.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THEN RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...JUST REACHING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
SOME DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS. THE GFS INDICATED
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TRACKING OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS WARMER AIR IN PLACE. BOTH MODELS
ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH WAA TAKING PLACE ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS ON WARMER AIR REMAINING OVER THE
REGION...WITH THE GFS JUST NOT AS WARM AS THE ECMWF. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION...WHICH INDICATES
40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KUNR 060909
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
209 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INCREASE IN BL-850MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT HIGHS 5-10F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE CROSS NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY. MAIN RESULT WILL BE
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE
CLIPS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL THREAT
FOR -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
40S AND 50S ON SUNDAY...WITH 50S AND 60S LIKELY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 060909
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
209 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INCREASE IN BL-850MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT HIGHS 5-10F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE CROSS NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY. MAIN RESULT WILL BE
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE
CLIPS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL THREAT
FOR -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
40S AND 50S ON SUNDAY...WITH 50S AND 60S LIKELY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE






000
FXUS63 KFSD 060852
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
252 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY IS FORECAST HIGHS. A MILD FLOW OF WESTERLY
SURFACE WIND WILL DOMINATE...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS AND WE HAVE LOST SNOW COVER OVER OUR ENTIRE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. YESTERDAY...THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE BEING WARMER PROVED THE BEST ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT HAD
LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER. THE TREND LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY...
ESPECIALLY NOTING A WEST WIND IS IN STORE. THEREFORE FAVORED THE
ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE WHERE SNOW COVER DOES NOT EXIST. WHERE SNOW COVER
STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AND LOCATIONS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29...FAVORED MORE OF THE AMERICAN MOS GUIDANCE BLENDS TO
KEEP HIGHS IN THOSE LOCATIONS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. BUT WHERE
AREAS OUR SNOW FREE...SEE NO REASON WHY MID 40S TO MID 50S SHOULD
NOT PAN OUT. ONE NOTE ABOUT SURFACE WINDS...NOT MUCH OF A GRADIENT
EXISTS BUT WINDS ARE A BIT BRISK IN THE MIXED LAYER...SO WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS PREVAIL IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. MID CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...
ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN HALF. IN ADDITION...ALL MODELS
HAVE NOW BACKED OFF THE STRATUS BEHIND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND MOVING IN VERY LATE TONIGHT. WITH A LACK
OF ASCENT AND THE STRATUS DEPTH LOOKING A BIT SHALLOW IN OUR
NORTH...FOR BETTER OR WORSE DECIDED TO NOT KEEP THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR FREEZING SPRINKLE IN OUR
NORTH UNDER THE MID CLOUDS. BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THAT LOOKS A BIT
WEAK AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS LOWS STILL LOOK ON TARGET WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

BETWEEN MINOR COOL INTRUSIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...WE HAVE A SHORT
WAVE PUSHING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NOT MUCH DYNAMIC SUPPORT
BUT DECENT THERMAL BANDING DEVELOPING IN PRIME POSITION OVER THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE LIGHT SNOW CHANCE NORTH AND
EAST AT A VERY MODEST LEVEL...30 PERCENT MAX...BECAUSE OF THE WIMPY
DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THERE IS ALSO THE QUESTION OF POSITION OF ANY LIGHT
SNOW BANDS. FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP THE THREAT OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA THOUGH MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS HINT AT
A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK. THE QUESTIONABLE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION IS THE KEY...FOR A HIGHER THREAT WOULD PROBABLY SLIP THE
MAX POPS SOUTH A BIT...BUT WHATEVER DYNAMIC SUPPORT THERE IS SEEMS
TO BE TO THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO END THE MENTION BY SUNDAY
MORNING THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS AT DECENT NON MENTION LEVELS FAR EAST
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DAYTIME WILL BE DRY. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE VARIABLE SATURDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS IN THE COOL PUSH
DECREASING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHILE HIGHER
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT WAVE.
SUNDAY CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE STEADILY. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO 50
PLUS SOUTHWEST.

AM GOING WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IDEA OF A DRY AND VERY MILD
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MEANS IGNORING THE 00Z GFS WHICH SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH ITS COOL PUSH TUESDAY...AN OBVIOUS RESPONSE TO
ITS HANDLING OF A VERY STRONG CANADIAN WAVE DIGGING TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE EC IS MUCH MORE MODEST ON THIS AND THE CANADIAN/GEM
DOES NOT REALLY HAVE IT AT ALL. ALL THIS MEANS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH IS NOT TOO VIOLENTLY WARM COMPARED
TO THE WARMING THAT CAN HAPPEN THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN FACT IF THE
VERY MILD PATTERN REMAINS UNDENTED...SOME 70 PLUS HIGHS WEST DURING
MIDWEEK WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN THE GFS BRINGS UPPER
RIDGING BACK PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER ITS COOL INTRUSION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KABR 060536 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1136 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE IN THE EAST FOR TONIGHT.
REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE TWO CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COTEAU TO 20 TO 30 MPH.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION DISAPPEARING BY 3Z SO SUPPORT
FOR A CLASSIC LEE SIDE EVENT OUTSIDE OF THE 35 KT 925 MB WINDS IS
MINIMAL. THE FORECAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DRIFTING SNOW AND
PERHAPS SOME BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE USUAL SPOTS OF I-29. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY 6Z.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE FIRST CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS ONLY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FORCING. HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL HELP FROM
OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS THERE COULD BE SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. BY SAT NIGHT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT WITH A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE.
THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE PRECIP ACROSS A WIDER SWATH OF THE
CWA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AS
THE COLD FRONT MIXES IN SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT. AN INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

STILL LOOKS RATHER WARM...FOR EARLY MARCH...AS THE PERIOD OPENS.
925HPA THERMAL PROGS SHOW NO REAL SIGN OF DIPPING BELOW 0C UNTIL
DAY 7. WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE 12Z GFS /COLD TEMPS/ AND 12Z
ECMWF /WARM TEMPS/ REMAIN AT ODDS ON JUST HOW THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD PLAY OUT. BUT...SUPERBLEND`S
OUTPUT IS DECIDEDLY FAVORING THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS. ALOFT...THE
PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW...WITH THIS CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHERN STREAM NORTHWEST FLOW UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN
THINGS SEEM TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 060536 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1136 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE IN THE EAST FOR TONIGHT.
REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE TWO CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COTEAU TO 20 TO 30 MPH.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION DISAPPEARING BY 3Z SO SUPPORT
FOR A CLASSIC LEE SIDE EVENT OUTSIDE OF THE 35 KT 925 MB WINDS IS
MINIMAL. THE FORECAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DRIFTING SNOW AND
PERHAPS SOME BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE USUAL SPOTS OF I-29. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY 6Z.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE FIRST CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS ONLY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FORCING. HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL HELP FROM
OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS THERE COULD BE SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. BY SAT NIGHT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT WITH A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE.
THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE PRECIP ACROSS A WIDER SWATH OF THE
CWA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AS
THE COLD FRONT MIXES IN SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT. AN INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

STILL LOOKS RATHER WARM...FOR EARLY MARCH...AS THE PERIOD OPENS.
925HPA THERMAL PROGS SHOW NO REAL SIGN OF DIPPING BELOW 0C UNTIL
DAY 7. WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE 12Z GFS /COLD TEMPS/ AND 12Z
ECMWF /WARM TEMPS/ REMAIN AT ODDS ON JUST HOW THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD PLAY OUT. BUT...SUPERBLEND`S
OUTPUT IS DECIDEDLY FAVORING THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS. ALOFT...THE
PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW...WITH THIS CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHERN STREAM NORTHWEST FLOW UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN
THINGS SEEM TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 060536 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1136 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE IN THE EAST FOR TONIGHT.
REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE TWO CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COTEAU TO 20 TO 30 MPH.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION DISAPPEARING BY 3Z SO SUPPORT
FOR A CLASSIC LEE SIDE EVENT OUTSIDE OF THE 35 KT 925 MB WINDS IS
MINIMAL. THE FORECAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DRIFTING SNOW AND
PERHAPS SOME BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE USUAL SPOTS OF I-29. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY 6Z.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE FIRST CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS ONLY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FORCING. HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL HELP FROM
OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS THERE COULD BE SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. BY SAT NIGHT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT WITH A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE.
THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE PRECIP ACROSS A WIDER SWATH OF THE
CWA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AS
THE COLD FRONT MIXES IN SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT. AN INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

STILL LOOKS RATHER WARM...FOR EARLY MARCH...AS THE PERIOD OPENS.
925HPA THERMAL PROGS SHOW NO REAL SIGN OF DIPPING BELOW 0C UNTIL
DAY 7. WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE 12Z GFS /COLD TEMPS/ AND 12Z
ECMWF /WARM TEMPS/ REMAIN AT ODDS ON JUST HOW THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD PLAY OUT. BUT...SUPERBLEND`S
OUTPUT IS DECIDEDLY FAVORING THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS. ALOFT...THE
PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW...WITH THIS CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHERN STREAM NORTHWEST FLOW UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN
THINGS SEEM TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 060536 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1136 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE IN THE EAST FOR TONIGHT.
REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE TWO CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COTEAU TO 20 TO 30 MPH.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION DISAPPEARING BY 3Z SO SUPPORT
FOR A CLASSIC LEE SIDE EVENT OUTSIDE OF THE 35 KT 925 MB WINDS IS
MINIMAL. THE FORECAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DRIFTING SNOW AND
PERHAPS SOME BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE USUAL SPOTS OF I-29. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY 6Z.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE FIRST CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS ONLY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FORCING. HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL HELP FROM
OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS THERE COULD BE SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. BY SAT NIGHT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT WITH A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE.
THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE PRECIP ACROSS A WIDER SWATH OF THE
CWA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AS
THE COLD FRONT MIXES IN SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT. AN INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

STILL LOOKS RATHER WARM...FOR EARLY MARCH...AS THE PERIOD OPENS.
925HPA THERMAL PROGS SHOW NO REAL SIGN OF DIPPING BELOW 0C UNTIL
DAY 7. WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE 12Z GFS /COLD TEMPS/ AND 12Z
ECMWF /WARM TEMPS/ REMAIN AT ODDS ON JUST HOW THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD PLAY OUT. BUT...SUPERBLEND`S
OUTPUT IS DECIDEDLY FAVORING THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS. ALOFT...THE
PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW...WITH THIS CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHERN STREAM NORTHWEST FLOW UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN
THINGS SEEM TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 060536 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1136 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE IN THE EAST FOR TONIGHT.
REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE TWO CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COTEAU TO 20 TO 30 MPH.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION DISAPPEARING BY 3Z SO SUPPORT
FOR A CLASSIC LEE SIDE EVENT OUTSIDE OF THE 35 KT 925 MB WINDS IS
MINIMAL. THE FORECAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DRIFTING SNOW AND
PERHAPS SOME BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE USUAL SPOTS OF I-29. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY 6Z.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE FIRST CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS ONLY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FORCING. HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL HELP FROM
OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS THERE COULD BE SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. BY SAT NIGHT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT WITH A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE.
THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE PRECIP ACROSS A WIDER SWATH OF THE
CWA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AS
THE COLD FRONT MIXES IN SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT. AN INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

STILL LOOKS RATHER WARM...FOR EARLY MARCH...AS THE PERIOD OPENS.
925HPA THERMAL PROGS SHOW NO REAL SIGN OF DIPPING BELOW 0C UNTIL
DAY 7. WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE 12Z GFS /COLD TEMPS/ AND 12Z
ECMWF /WARM TEMPS/ REMAIN AT ODDS ON JUST HOW THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD PLAY OUT. BUT...SUPERBLEND`S
OUTPUT IS DECIDEDLY FAVORING THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS. ALOFT...THE
PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW...WITH THIS CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHERN STREAM NORTHWEST FLOW UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN
THINGS SEEM TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KABR 060536 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1136 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE IN THE EAST FOR TONIGHT.
REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE TWO CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COTEAU TO 20 TO 30 MPH.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION DISAPPEARING BY 3Z SO SUPPORT
FOR A CLASSIC LEE SIDE EVENT OUTSIDE OF THE 35 KT 925 MB WINDS IS
MINIMAL. THE FORECAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DRIFTING SNOW AND
PERHAPS SOME BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE USUAL SPOTS OF I-29. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY 6Z.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE FIRST CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS ONLY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FORCING. HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL HELP FROM
OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS THERE COULD BE SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. BY SAT NIGHT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT WITH A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE.
THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE PRECIP ACROSS A WIDER SWATH OF THE
CWA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AS
THE COLD FRONT MIXES IN SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT. AN INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

STILL LOOKS RATHER WARM...FOR EARLY MARCH...AS THE PERIOD OPENS.
925HPA THERMAL PROGS SHOW NO REAL SIGN OF DIPPING BELOW 0C UNTIL
DAY 7. WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE 12Z GFS /COLD TEMPS/ AND 12Z
ECMWF /WARM TEMPS/ REMAIN AT ODDS ON JUST HOW THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD PLAY OUT. BUT...SUPERBLEND`S
OUTPUT IS DECIDEDLY FAVORING THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS. ALOFT...THE
PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW...WITH THIS CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHERN STREAM NORTHWEST FLOW UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN
THINGS SEEM TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KUNR 060514
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1014 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015


.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE RIDGE OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS...WITH DRY SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW CROSSING SD. AT THE SFC...TROF CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL THROUGH THE 30S
INTO THE 40S ACRS THE CWFA.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CONUS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW OVER OUR CWFA. TEMPS WILL WARM
EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 5C DEGREES OR SO
WARMER THAN TODAY. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FAR NWRN SD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 50S AND
60S LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST SD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS ND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 060514
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1014 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015


.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE RIDGE OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS...WITH DRY SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW CROSSING SD. AT THE SFC...TROF CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL THROUGH THE 30S
INTO THE 40S ACRS THE CWFA.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CONUS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW OVER OUR CWFA. TEMPS WILL WARM
EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 5C DEGREES OR SO
WARMER THAN TODAY. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FAR NWRN SD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 50S AND
60S LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST SD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS ND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 060514
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1014 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015


.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE RIDGE OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS...WITH DRY SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW CROSSING SD. AT THE SFC...TROF CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL THROUGH THE 30S
INTO THE 40S ACRS THE CWFA.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CONUS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW OVER OUR CWFA. TEMPS WILL WARM
EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 5C DEGREES OR SO
WARMER THAN TODAY. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FAR NWRN SD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 50S AND
60S LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST SD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS ND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 060514
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1014 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015


.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE RIDGE OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS...WITH DRY SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW CROSSING SD. AT THE SFC...TROF CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL THROUGH THE 30S
INTO THE 40S ACRS THE CWFA.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CONUS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW OVER OUR CWFA. TEMPS WILL WARM
EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 5C DEGREES OR SO
WARMER THAN TODAY. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FAR NWRN SD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 50S AND
60S LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST SD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS ND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KFSD 060452
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1052 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MUCH MILDER WEATHER IS RETURNING TO THE REGION WITH SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENTS IN TEMPERATURE HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MINOR
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT SHOULD ONLY BRING AN INCREASE IN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT...BEGINNING WITH A SLIGHT
DIP IN THE EVENING HOURS THEN STEADYING OR SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...MARKING A 20 TO 30 DEGREE IMPROVEMENT OVER THIS
MORNINGS LOWS.

WINDS TURN WESTERLY ON FRIDAY WHILE MID AND LOW TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM. 925 MB TEMPERATURES BUILD TO 5C TO 7C IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO VERY PLEASANT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MOVING
EASTWARD...LESS ABUNDANT WARMING AND A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOWPACK
WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO FREEZING IN EAST CENTRAL SD
AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE...READINGS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SERIES OF WAVES DROPPING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  FRIDAY
NIGHTS WAVE IS TRICKY...AS THE LIFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK.  THERE IS
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
DENDRITIC LAYER REMAINS DRY.  GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE PRODUCTION...ANY
PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE DRIZZLE SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF
DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  TOUGH CALL ON FORECAST HIGHS ON
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MODELS VARYING ON STRENGTH OF THE COLD
AIR WORKING DOWN DURING THE DAY.  GFS IS STRONGEST WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WHILE THE ECMWF.  GIVEN THE NAM  IS HEDGING TOWARDS THE
WARMER SOLUTIONS...KEPT FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WITH LINGERING SNOWCOVER AND COOLEST 925
HPA TEMPS.

MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING THE WAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO BE
STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...SO HAVE WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE.  ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE...BUT
DENDRITIC LAYER IS SATURATED SO KEPT PRECIP TYPE SNOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE MILD WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
DRIVING 925 HPA TEMPS INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.
HAVE CONTINUED TO HEDGE TOWARDS THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE LESS
OF AN ISSUE.

GFS SHOWS BACKDOOR FRONT COMING DOWN NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH
SUBSTANTIAL COOLING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES
QUITE MILD.  FOR NOW...SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BY WARMING THINGS
SLIGHTLY OVER GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTH...AND LEAVING TEMPERATURES IN
THE NORTH AS IS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 060452
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1052 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MUCH MILDER WEATHER IS RETURNING TO THE REGION WITH SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENTS IN TEMPERATURE HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MINOR
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT SHOULD ONLY BRING AN INCREASE IN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT...BEGINNING WITH A SLIGHT
DIP IN THE EVENING HOURS THEN STEADYING OR SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...MARKING A 20 TO 30 DEGREE IMPROVEMENT OVER THIS
MORNINGS LOWS.

WINDS TURN WESTERLY ON FRIDAY WHILE MID AND LOW TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM. 925 MB TEMPERATURES BUILD TO 5C TO 7C IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO VERY PLEASANT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MOVING
EASTWARD...LESS ABUNDANT WARMING AND A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOWPACK
WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO FREEZING IN EAST CENTRAL SD
AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE...READINGS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SERIES OF WAVES DROPPING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  FRIDAY
NIGHTS WAVE IS TRICKY...AS THE LIFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK.  THERE IS
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
DENDRITIC LAYER REMAINS DRY.  GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE PRODUCTION...ANY
PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE DRIZZLE SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF
DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  TOUGH CALL ON FORECAST HIGHS ON
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MODELS VARYING ON STRENGTH OF THE COLD
AIR WORKING DOWN DURING THE DAY.  GFS IS STRONGEST WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WHILE THE ECMWF.  GIVEN THE NAM  IS HEDGING TOWARDS THE
WARMER SOLUTIONS...KEPT FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WITH LINGERING SNOWCOVER AND COOLEST 925
HPA TEMPS.

MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING THE WAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO BE
STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...SO HAVE WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE.  ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE...BUT
DENDRITIC LAYER IS SATURATED SO KEPT PRECIP TYPE SNOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE MILD WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
DRIVING 925 HPA TEMPS INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.
HAVE CONTINUED TO HEDGE TOWARDS THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE LESS
OF AN ISSUE.

GFS SHOWS BACKDOOR FRONT COMING DOWN NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH
SUBSTANTIAL COOLING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES
QUITE MILD.  FOR NOW...SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BY WARMING THINGS
SLIGHTLY OVER GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTH...AND LEAVING TEMPERATURES IN
THE NORTH AS IS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 060452
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1052 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MUCH MILDER WEATHER IS RETURNING TO THE REGION WITH SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENTS IN TEMPERATURE HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MINOR
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT SHOULD ONLY BRING AN INCREASE IN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT...BEGINNING WITH A SLIGHT
DIP IN THE EVENING HOURS THEN STEADYING OR SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...MARKING A 20 TO 30 DEGREE IMPROVEMENT OVER THIS
MORNINGS LOWS.

WINDS TURN WESTERLY ON FRIDAY WHILE MID AND LOW TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM. 925 MB TEMPERATURES BUILD TO 5C TO 7C IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO VERY PLEASANT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MOVING
EASTWARD...LESS ABUNDANT WARMING AND A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOWPACK
WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO FREEZING IN EAST CENTRAL SD
AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE...READINGS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SERIES OF WAVES DROPPING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  FRIDAY
NIGHTS WAVE IS TRICKY...AS THE LIFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK.  THERE IS
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
DENDRITIC LAYER REMAINS DRY.  GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE PRODUCTION...ANY
PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE DRIZZLE SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF
DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  TOUGH CALL ON FORECAST HIGHS ON
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MODELS VARYING ON STRENGTH OF THE COLD
AIR WORKING DOWN DURING THE DAY.  GFS IS STRONGEST WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WHILE THE ECMWF.  GIVEN THE NAM  IS HEDGING TOWARDS THE
WARMER SOLUTIONS...KEPT FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WITH LINGERING SNOWCOVER AND COOLEST 925
HPA TEMPS.

MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING THE WAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO BE
STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...SO HAVE WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE.  ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE...BUT
DENDRITIC LAYER IS SATURATED SO KEPT PRECIP TYPE SNOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE MILD WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
DRIVING 925 HPA TEMPS INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.
HAVE CONTINUED TO HEDGE TOWARDS THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE LESS
OF AN ISSUE.

GFS SHOWS BACKDOOR FRONT COMING DOWN NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH
SUBSTANTIAL COOLING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES
QUITE MILD.  FOR NOW...SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BY WARMING THINGS
SLIGHTLY OVER GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTH...AND LEAVING TEMPERATURES IN
THE NORTH AS IS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 060452
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1052 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MUCH MILDER WEATHER IS RETURNING TO THE REGION WITH SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENTS IN TEMPERATURE HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MINOR
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT SHOULD ONLY BRING AN INCREASE IN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT...BEGINNING WITH A SLIGHT
DIP IN THE EVENING HOURS THEN STEADYING OR SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...MARKING A 20 TO 30 DEGREE IMPROVEMENT OVER THIS
MORNINGS LOWS.

WINDS TURN WESTERLY ON FRIDAY WHILE MID AND LOW TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM. 925 MB TEMPERATURES BUILD TO 5C TO 7C IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO VERY PLEASANT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MOVING
EASTWARD...LESS ABUNDANT WARMING AND A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOWPACK
WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO FREEZING IN EAST CENTRAL SD
AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE...READINGS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SERIES OF WAVES DROPPING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  FRIDAY
NIGHTS WAVE IS TRICKY...AS THE LIFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK.  THERE IS
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
DENDRITIC LAYER REMAINS DRY.  GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE PRODUCTION...ANY
PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE DRIZZLE SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF
DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  TOUGH CALL ON FORECAST HIGHS ON
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MODELS VARYING ON STRENGTH OF THE COLD
AIR WORKING DOWN DURING THE DAY.  GFS IS STRONGEST WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WHILE THE ECMWF.  GIVEN THE NAM  IS HEDGING TOWARDS THE
WARMER SOLUTIONS...KEPT FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WITH LINGERING SNOWCOVER AND COOLEST 925
HPA TEMPS.

MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING THE WAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO BE
STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...SO HAVE WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE.  ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE...BUT
DENDRITIC LAYER IS SATURATED SO KEPT PRECIP TYPE SNOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE MILD WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
DRIVING 925 HPA TEMPS INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.
HAVE CONTINUED TO HEDGE TOWARDS THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE LESS
OF AN ISSUE.

GFS SHOWS BACKDOOR FRONT COMING DOWN NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH
SUBSTANTIAL COOLING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES
QUITE MILD.  FOR NOW...SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BY WARMING THINGS
SLIGHTLY OVER GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTH...AND LEAVING TEMPERATURES IN
THE NORTH AS IS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KABR 060320 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
920 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE IN THE EAST FOR TONIGHT.
REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 527 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE TWO CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COTEAU TO 20 TO 30 MPH.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION DISAPPEARING BY 3Z SO SUPPORT
FOR A CLASSIC LEE SIDE EVENT OUTSIDE OF THE 35 KT 925 MB WINDS IS
MINIMAL. THE FORECAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DRIFTING SNOW AND
PERHAPS SOME BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE USUAL SPOTS OF I-29. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY 6Z.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE FIRST CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS ONLY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FORCING. HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL HELP FROM
OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS THERE COULD BE SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. BY SAT NIGHT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT WITH A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE.
THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE PRECIP ACROSS A WIDER SWATH OF THE
CWA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AS
THE COLD FRONT MIXES IN SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT. AN INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

STILL LOOKS RATHER WARM...FOR EARLY MARCH...AS THE PERIOD OPENS.
925HPA THERMAL PROGS SHOW NO REAL SIGN OF DIPPING BELOW 0C UNTIL
DAY 7. WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE 12Z GFS /COLD TEMPS/ AND 12Z
ECMWF /WARM TEMPS/ REMAIN AT ODDS ON JUST HOW THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD PLAY OUT. BUT...SUPERBLEND`S
OUTPUT IS DECIDEDLY FAVORING THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS. ALOFT...THE
PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW...WITH THIS CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHERN STREAM NORTHWEST FLOW UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN
THINGS SEEM TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KABR 060320 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
920 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE IN THE EAST FOR TONIGHT.
REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 527 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE TWO CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COTEAU TO 20 TO 30 MPH.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION DISAPPEARING BY 3Z SO SUPPORT
FOR A CLASSIC LEE SIDE EVENT OUTSIDE OF THE 35 KT 925 MB WINDS IS
MINIMAL. THE FORECAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DRIFTING SNOW AND
PERHAPS SOME BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE USUAL SPOTS OF I-29. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY 6Z.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE FIRST CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS ONLY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FORCING. HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL HELP FROM
OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS THERE COULD BE SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. BY SAT NIGHT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT WITH A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE.
THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE PRECIP ACROSS A WIDER SWATH OF THE
CWA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AS
THE COLD FRONT MIXES IN SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT. AN INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

STILL LOOKS RATHER WARM...FOR EARLY MARCH...AS THE PERIOD OPENS.
925HPA THERMAL PROGS SHOW NO REAL SIGN OF DIPPING BELOW 0C UNTIL
DAY 7. WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE 12Z GFS /COLD TEMPS/ AND 12Z
ECMWF /WARM TEMPS/ REMAIN AT ODDS ON JUST HOW THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD PLAY OUT. BUT...SUPERBLEND`S
OUTPUT IS DECIDEDLY FAVORING THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS. ALOFT...THE
PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW...WITH THIS CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHERN STREAM NORTHWEST FLOW UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN
THINGS SEEM TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KUNR 060256
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
756 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 755 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE RIDGE OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS...WITH DRY SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW CROSSING SD. AT THE SFC...TROF CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL THROUGH THE 30S
INTO THE 40S ACRS THE CWFA.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CONUS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW OVER OUR CWFA. TEMPS WILL WARM
EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 5C DEGREES OR SO
WARMER THAN TODAY. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FAR NWRN SD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 50S AND
60S LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST SD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS ND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 060256
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
756 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 755 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE RIDGE OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS...WITH DRY SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW CROSSING SD. AT THE SFC...TROF CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL THROUGH THE 30S
INTO THE 40S ACRS THE CWFA.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CONUS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW OVER OUR CWFA. TEMPS WILL WARM
EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 5C DEGREES OR SO
WARMER THAN TODAY. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FAR NWRN SD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 50S AND
60S LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST SD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS ND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 060256
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
756 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 755 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE RIDGE OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS...WITH DRY SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW CROSSING SD. AT THE SFC...TROF CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL THROUGH THE 30S
INTO THE 40S ACRS THE CWFA.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CONUS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW OVER OUR CWFA. TEMPS WILL WARM
EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 5C DEGREES OR SO
WARMER THAN TODAY. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FAR NWRN SD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 50S AND
60S LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST SD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS ND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KFSD 060046
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
646 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MUCH MILDER WEATHER IS RETURNING TO THE REGION WITH SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENTS IN TEMPERATURE HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MINOR
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT SHOULD ONLY BRING AN INCREASE IN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT...BEGINNING WITH A SLIGHT
DIP IN THE EVENING HOURS THEN STEADYING OR SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...MARKING A 20 TO 30 DEGREE IMPROVEMENT OVER THIS
MORNINGS LOWS.

WINDS TURN WESTERLY ON FRIDAY WHILE MID AND LOW TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM. 925 MB TEMPERATURES BUILD TO 5C TO 7C IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO VERY PLEASANT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MOVING
EASTWARD...LESS ABUNDANT WARMING AND A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOWPACK
WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO FREEZING IN EAST CENTRAL SD
AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE...READINGS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SERIES OF WAVES DROPPING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  FRIDAY
NIGHTS WAVE IS TRICKY...AS THE LIFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK.  THERE IS
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
DENDRITIC LAYER REMAINS DRY.  GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE PRODUCTION...ANY
PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE DRIZZLE SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF
DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  TOUGH CALL ON FORECAST HIGHS ON
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MODELS VARYING ON STRENGTH OF THE COLD
AIR WORKING DOWN DURING THE DAY.  GFS IS STRONGEST WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WHILE THE ECMWF.  GIVEN THE NAM  IS HEDGING TOWARDS THE
WARMER SOLUTIONS...KEPT FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WITH LINGERING SNOWCOVER AND COOLEST 925
HPA TEMPS.

MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING THE WAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO BE
STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...SO HAVE WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE.  ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE...BUT
DENDRITIC LAYER IS SATURATED SO KEPT PRECIP TYPE SNOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE MILD WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
DRIVING 925 HPA TEMPS INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.
HAVE CONTINUED TO HEDGE TOWARDS THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE LESS
OF AN ISSUE.

GFS SHOWS BACKDOOR FRONT COMING DOWN NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH
SUBSTANTIAL COOLING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES
QUITE MILD.  FOR NOW...SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BY WARMING THINGS
SLIGHTLY OVER GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTH...AND LEAVING TEMPERATURES IN
THE NORTH AS IS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 060046
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
646 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MUCH MILDER WEATHER IS RETURNING TO THE REGION WITH SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENTS IN TEMPERATURE HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MINOR
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT SHOULD ONLY BRING AN INCREASE IN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT...BEGINNING WITH A SLIGHT
DIP IN THE EVENING HOURS THEN STEADYING OR SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...MARKING A 20 TO 30 DEGREE IMPROVEMENT OVER THIS
MORNINGS LOWS.

WINDS TURN WESTERLY ON FRIDAY WHILE MID AND LOW TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM. 925 MB TEMPERATURES BUILD TO 5C TO 7C IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO VERY PLEASANT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MOVING
EASTWARD...LESS ABUNDANT WARMING AND A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOWPACK
WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO FREEZING IN EAST CENTRAL SD
AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE...READINGS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SERIES OF WAVES DROPPING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  FRIDAY
NIGHTS WAVE IS TRICKY...AS THE LIFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK.  THERE IS
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
DENDRITIC LAYER REMAINS DRY.  GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE PRODUCTION...ANY
PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE DRIZZLE SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF
DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  TOUGH CALL ON FORECAST HIGHS ON
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MODELS VARYING ON STRENGTH OF THE COLD
AIR WORKING DOWN DURING THE DAY.  GFS IS STRONGEST WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WHILE THE ECMWF.  GIVEN THE NAM  IS HEDGING TOWARDS THE
WARMER SOLUTIONS...KEPT FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WITH LINGERING SNOWCOVER AND COOLEST 925
HPA TEMPS.

MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING THE WAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO BE
STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...SO HAVE WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE.  ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE...BUT
DENDRITIC LAYER IS SATURATED SO KEPT PRECIP TYPE SNOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE MILD WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
DRIVING 925 HPA TEMPS INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.
HAVE CONTINUED TO HEDGE TOWARDS THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE LESS
OF AN ISSUE.

GFS SHOWS BACKDOOR FRONT COMING DOWN NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH
SUBSTANTIAL COOLING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES
QUITE MILD.  FOR NOW...SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BY WARMING THINGS
SLIGHTLY OVER GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTH...AND LEAVING TEMPERATURES IN
THE NORTH AS IS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KABR 052330 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
530 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE TWO CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COTEAU TO 20 TO 30 MPH.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION DISAPPEARING BY 3Z SO SUPPORT
FOR A CLASSIC LEE SIDE EVENT OUTSIDE OF THE 35 KT 925 MB WINDS IS
MINIMAL. THE FORECAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DRIFTING SNOW AND
PERHAPS SOME BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE USUAL SPOTS OF I-29. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY 6Z.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE FIRST CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS ONLY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FORCING. HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL HELP FROM
OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS THERE COULD BE SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. BY SAT NIGHT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT WITH A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE.
THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE PRECIP ACROSS A WIDER SWATH OF THE
CWA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AS
THE COLD FRONT MIXES IN SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT. AN INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

STILL LOOKS RATHER WARM...FOR EARLY MARCH...AS THE PERIOD OPENS.
925HPA THERMAL PROGS SHOW NO REAL SIGN OF DIPPING BELOW 0C UNTIL
DAY 7. WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE 12Z GFS /COLD TEMPS/ AND 12Z
ECMWF /WARM TEMPS/ REMAIN AT ODDS ON JUST HOW THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD PLAY OUT. BUT...SUPERBLEND`S
OUTPUT IS DECIDEDLY FAVORING THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS. ALOFT...THE
PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW...WITH THIS CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHERN STREAM NORTHWEST FLOW UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN
THINGS SEEM TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 052330 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
530 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE TWO CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COTEAU TO 20 TO 30 MPH.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION DISAPPEARING BY 3Z SO SUPPORT
FOR A CLASSIC LEE SIDE EVENT OUTSIDE OF THE 35 KT 925 MB WINDS IS
MINIMAL. THE FORECAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DRIFTING SNOW AND
PERHAPS SOME BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE USUAL SPOTS OF I-29. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY 6Z.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE FIRST CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS ONLY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FORCING. HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL HELP FROM
OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS THERE COULD BE SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. BY SAT NIGHT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT WITH A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE.
THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE PRECIP ACROSS A WIDER SWATH OF THE
CWA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AS
THE COLD FRONT MIXES IN SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT. AN INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

STILL LOOKS RATHER WARM...FOR EARLY MARCH...AS THE PERIOD OPENS.
925HPA THERMAL PROGS SHOW NO REAL SIGN OF DIPPING BELOW 0C UNTIL
DAY 7. WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE 12Z GFS /COLD TEMPS/ AND 12Z
ECMWF /WARM TEMPS/ REMAIN AT ODDS ON JUST HOW THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD PLAY OUT. BUT...SUPERBLEND`S
OUTPUT IS DECIDEDLY FAVORING THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS. ALOFT...THE
PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW...WITH THIS CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHERN STREAM NORTHWEST FLOW UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN
THINGS SEEM TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KFSD 052139
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
339 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MUCH MILDER WEATHER IS RETURNING TO THE REGION WITH SIGNIFANT
IMPROVEMENTS IN TEMPERATURE HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MINOR
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT SHOULD ONLY BRING AN INCREASE IN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT...BEGINING WITH A SLIGHT DIP
IN THE EVENING HOURS THEN STEADYING OR SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S...MARKING A 20 TO 30 DEGREE IMPROVEMENT OVER THIS MORNINGS LOWS.

WINDS TURN WESTERLY ON FRIDAY WHILE MID AND LOW TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM. 925 MB TEMPERATURES BUILD TO 5C TO 7C IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO VERY PLEASANT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MOVING
EASTWARD...LESS ABUNDANT WARMING AND A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOWPACK
WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO FREEZING IN EAST CENTRAL SD
AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE...READINGS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SERIES OF WAVES DROPPING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  FRIDAY
NIGHTS WAVE IS TRICKY...AS THE LIFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK.  THERE IS
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
DENDRITIC LAYER REMAINS DRY.  GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE PRODUCTION...ANY
PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE DRIZZLE SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF
DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  TOUGH CALL ON FORECAST HIGHS ON
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MODELS VARYING ON STRENGTH OF THE COLD
AIR WORKING DOWN DURING THE DAY.  GFS IS STRONGEST WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WHILE THE ECMWF.  GIVEN THE NAM  IS HEDGING TOWARDS THE
WARMER SOLUTIONS...KEPT FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WITH LINGERING SNOWCOVER AND COOLEST 925
HPA TEMPS.

MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING THE WAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO BE
STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...SO HAVE WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE.  ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE...BUT
DENDRITIC LAYER IS SATURATED SO KEPT PRECIP TYPE SNOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE MILD WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
DRIVING 925 HPA TEMPS INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.
HAVE CONTINUED TO HEDGE TOWARDS THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE LESS
OF AN ISSUE.

GFS SHOWS BACKDOOR FRONT COMING DOWN NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH
SUBSTANTIAL COOLING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES
QUITE MILD.  FOR NOW...SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BY WARMING THINGS
SLIGHTLY OVER GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTH...AND LEAVING TEMPERATURES IN
THE NORTH AS IS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 052139
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
339 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MUCH MILDER WEATHER IS RETURNING TO THE REGION WITH SIGNIFANT
IMPROVEMENTS IN TEMPERATURE HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MINOR
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT SHOULD ONLY BRING AN INCREASE IN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT...BEGINING WITH A SLIGHT DIP
IN THE EVENING HOURS THEN STEADYING OR SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S...MARKING A 20 TO 30 DEGREE IMPROVEMENT OVER THIS MORNINGS LOWS.

WINDS TURN WESTERLY ON FRIDAY WHILE MID AND LOW TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM. 925 MB TEMPERATURES BUILD TO 5C TO 7C IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO VERY PLEASANT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MOVING
EASTWARD...LESS ABUNDANT WARMING AND A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOWPACK
WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO FREEZING IN EAST CENTRAL SD
AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE...READINGS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SERIES OF WAVES DROPPING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  FRIDAY
NIGHTS WAVE IS TRICKY...AS THE LIFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK.  THERE IS
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
DENDRITIC LAYER REMAINS DRY.  GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE PRODUCTION...ANY
PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE DRIZZLE SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF
DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  TOUGH CALL ON FORECAST HIGHS ON
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MODELS VARYING ON STRENGTH OF THE COLD
AIR WORKING DOWN DURING THE DAY.  GFS IS STRONGEST WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WHILE THE ECMWF.  GIVEN THE NAM  IS HEDGING TOWARDS THE
WARMER SOLUTIONS...KEPT FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WITH LINGERING SNOWCOVER AND COOLEST 925
HPA TEMPS.

MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING THE WAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO BE
STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...SO HAVE WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE.  ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE...BUT
DENDRITIC LAYER IS SATURATED SO KEPT PRECIP TYPE SNOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE MILD WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
DRIVING 925 HPA TEMPS INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.
HAVE CONTINUED TO HEDGE TOWARDS THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE LESS
OF AN ISSUE.

GFS SHOWS BACKDOOR FRONT COMING DOWN NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH
SUBSTANTIAL COOLING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES
QUITE MILD.  FOR NOW...SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BY WARMING THINGS
SLIGHTLY OVER GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTH...AND LEAVING TEMPERATURES IN
THE NORTH AS IS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 052139
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
339 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MUCH MILDER WEATHER IS RETURNING TO THE REGION WITH SIGNIFANT
IMPROVEMENTS IN TEMPERATURE HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MINOR
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT SHOULD ONLY BRING AN INCREASE IN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT...BEGINING WITH A SLIGHT DIP
IN THE EVENING HOURS THEN STEADYING OR SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S...MARKING A 20 TO 30 DEGREE IMPROVEMENT OVER THIS MORNINGS LOWS.

WINDS TURN WESTERLY ON FRIDAY WHILE MID AND LOW TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM. 925 MB TEMPERATURES BUILD TO 5C TO 7C IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO VERY PLEASANT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MOVING
EASTWARD...LESS ABUNDANT WARMING AND A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOWPACK
WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO FREEZING IN EAST CENTRAL SD
AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE...READINGS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SERIES OF WAVES DROPPING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  FRIDAY
NIGHTS WAVE IS TRICKY...AS THE LIFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK.  THERE IS
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
DENDRITIC LAYER REMAINS DRY.  GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE PRODUCTION...ANY
PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE DRIZZLE SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF
DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  TOUGH CALL ON FORECAST HIGHS ON
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MODELS VARYING ON STRENGTH OF THE COLD
AIR WORKING DOWN DURING THE DAY.  GFS IS STRONGEST WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WHILE THE ECMWF.  GIVEN THE NAM  IS HEDGING TOWARDS THE
WARMER SOLUTIONS...KEPT FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WITH LINGERING SNOWCOVER AND COOLEST 925
HPA TEMPS.

MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING THE WAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO BE
STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...SO HAVE WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE.  ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE...BUT
DENDRITIC LAYER IS SATURATED SO KEPT PRECIP TYPE SNOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE MILD WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
DRIVING 925 HPA TEMPS INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.
HAVE CONTINUED TO HEDGE TOWARDS THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE LESS
OF AN ISSUE.

GFS SHOWS BACKDOOR FRONT COMING DOWN NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH
SUBSTANTIAL COOLING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES
QUITE MILD.  FOR NOW...SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BY WARMING THINGS
SLIGHTLY OVER GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTH...AND LEAVING TEMPERATURES IN
THE NORTH AS IS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 052139
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
339 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MUCH MILDER WEATHER IS RETURNING TO THE REGION WITH SIGNIFANT
IMPROVEMENTS IN TEMPERATURE HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MINOR
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT SHOULD ONLY BRING AN INCREASE IN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT...BEGINING WITH A SLIGHT DIP
IN THE EVENING HOURS THEN STEADYING OR SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S...MARKING A 20 TO 30 DEGREE IMPROVEMENT OVER THIS MORNINGS LOWS.

WINDS TURN WESTERLY ON FRIDAY WHILE MID AND LOW TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM. 925 MB TEMPERATURES BUILD TO 5C TO 7C IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO VERY PLEASANT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MOVING
EASTWARD...LESS ABUNDANT WARMING AND A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOWPACK
WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO FREEZING IN EAST CENTRAL SD
AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE...READINGS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SERIES OF WAVES DROPPING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  FRIDAY
NIGHTS WAVE IS TRICKY...AS THE LIFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK.  THERE IS
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
DENDRITIC LAYER REMAINS DRY.  GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE PRODUCTION...ANY
PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE DRIZZLE SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF
DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  TOUGH CALL ON FORECAST HIGHS ON
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MODELS VARYING ON STRENGTH OF THE COLD
AIR WORKING DOWN DURING THE DAY.  GFS IS STRONGEST WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WHILE THE ECMWF.  GIVEN THE NAM  IS HEDGING TOWARDS THE
WARMER SOLUTIONS...KEPT FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WITH LINGERING SNOWCOVER AND COOLEST 925
HPA TEMPS.

MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING THE WAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO BE
STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...SO HAVE WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE.  ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE...BUT
DENDRITIC LAYER IS SATURATED SO KEPT PRECIP TYPE SNOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE MILD WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
DRIVING 925 HPA TEMPS INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.
HAVE CONTINUED TO HEDGE TOWARDS THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE LESS
OF AN ISSUE.

GFS SHOWS BACKDOOR FRONT COMING DOWN NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH
SUBSTANTIAL COOLING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES
QUITE MILD.  FOR NOW...SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BY WARMING THINGS
SLIGHTLY OVER GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTH...AND LEAVING TEMPERATURES IN
THE NORTH AS IS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KUNR 052131
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
231 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE RIDGE OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS...WITH DRY SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW CROSSING SD. AT THE SFC...TROF CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL THROUGH THE 30S
INTO THE 40S ACRS THE CWFA.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CONUS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW OVER OUR CWFA. TEMPS WILL WARM
EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 5C DEGREES OR SO
WARMER THAN TODAY. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FAR NWRN SD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 50S AND
60S LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST SD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS ND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 052131
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
231 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE RIDGE OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS...WITH DRY SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW CROSSING SD. AT THE SFC...TROF CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL THROUGH THE 30S
INTO THE 40S ACRS THE CWFA.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CONUS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW OVER OUR CWFA. TEMPS WILL WARM
EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 5C DEGREES OR SO
WARMER THAN TODAY. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FAR NWRN SD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 50S AND
60S LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST SD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS ND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26






000
FXUS63 KABR 052006
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
206 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE TWO CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COTEAU TO 20 TO 30 MPH.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION DISAPPEARING BY 3Z SO SUPPORT
FOR A CLASSIC LEE SIDE EVENT OUTSIDE OF THE 35 KT 925 MB WINDS IS
MINIMAL. THE FORECAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DRIFTING SNOW AND
PERHAPS SOME BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE USUAL SPOTS OF I-29. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY 6Z.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE FIRST CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS ONLY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FORCING. HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL HELP FROM
OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS THERE COULD BE SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. BY SAT NIGHT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT WITH A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE.
THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE PRECIP ACROSS A WIDER SWATH OF THE
CWA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AS
THE COLD FRONT MIXES IN SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT. AN INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

STILL LOOKS RATHER WARM...FOR EARLY MARCH...AS THE PERIOD OPENS.
925HPA THERMAL PROGS SHOW NO REAL SIGN OF DIPPING BELOW 0C UNTIL
DAY 7. WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE 12Z GFS /COLD TEMPS/ AND 12Z
ECMWF /WARM TEMPS/ REMAIN AT ODDS ON JUST HOW THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD PLAY OUT. BUT...SUPERBLEND`S
OUTPUT IS DECIDEDLY FAVORING THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS. ALOFT...THE
PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW...WITH THIS CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHERN STREAM NORTHWEST FLOW UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN
THINGS SEEM TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

AT THE MOMENT...GOOD VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTHERLY BREEZES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
WEST OVERNIGHT. AT KMBG...WINDS MAY JUST GO CALM OVERNIGHT...WHICH
WOULD INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FOG BY SUNRISE.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN








000
FXUS63 KABR 052006
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
206 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE TWO CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COTEAU TO 20 TO 30 MPH.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION DISAPPEARING BY 3Z SO SUPPORT
FOR A CLASSIC LEE SIDE EVENT OUTSIDE OF THE 35 KT 925 MB WINDS IS
MINIMAL. THE FORECAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DRIFTING SNOW AND
PERHAPS SOME BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE USUAL SPOTS OF I-29. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY 6Z.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE FIRST CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS ONLY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FORCING. HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL HELP FROM
OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS THERE COULD BE SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. BY SAT NIGHT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT WITH A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE.
THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE PRECIP ACROSS A WIDER SWATH OF THE
CWA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AS
THE COLD FRONT MIXES IN SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT. AN INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

STILL LOOKS RATHER WARM...FOR EARLY MARCH...AS THE PERIOD OPENS.
925HPA THERMAL PROGS SHOW NO REAL SIGN OF DIPPING BELOW 0C UNTIL
DAY 7. WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE 12Z GFS /COLD TEMPS/ AND 12Z
ECMWF /WARM TEMPS/ REMAIN AT ODDS ON JUST HOW THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD PLAY OUT. BUT...SUPERBLEND`S
OUTPUT IS DECIDEDLY FAVORING THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS. ALOFT...THE
PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW...WITH THIS CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHERN STREAM NORTHWEST FLOW UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN
THINGS SEEM TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

AT THE MOMENT...GOOD VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTHERLY BREEZES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
WEST OVERNIGHT. AT KMBG...WINDS MAY JUST GO CALM OVERNIGHT...WHICH
WOULD INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FOG BY SUNRISE.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN







000
FXUS63 KUNR 051725
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1025 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES 1035MB HIGH ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA/IOWA...WITH LEE TROF/WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
MONTANA/WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...DROPPING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS SHORTWAVE CROSSES
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. WITH WEAK LIFT/DRY LOW LEVELS...ONLY
EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION TODAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING ABOUT 10C.
LINGERING SNOW COVER ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOME...WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY AND WARMER FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S LOOK POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KFSD 051722
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1122 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING WILL BEGIN SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA MOVES EAST. CANADIAN SHORT WAVE PASSING THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND
SHOULD PRODUCE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...MAINLY AT
MID LEVELS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE MARCH SUN SHOULD WARM MORE
THAN GUIDANCE...EVEN NOT COUNTING THE MET WHICH IS WOEFULLY
UNDERDONE...REFLECTING OF COURSE THE NAM LOW LEVELS. STILL...HAVE
SNIPPED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EAST. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S EAST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED WARMING AND ONLY A VERY LIMITED EVENING
DROP IN TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS MAY DECREASE A LITTLE THEN INCREASE A
LITTLE BUT WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. A MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL TREND TO SOUTHWESTERLY...REFLECTING THE WARMING GOING ON.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH AFTER THE EVENING DROP BUT
THEY CERTAINLY WILL NOT FALL LATE TONIGHT UNDER THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A
LITTLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR WILL WORK BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH GFS HOLDING ON
TO SUB-ZERO 925MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF WARMS THE SAME LAYER ANOTHER 7C.
NAM PLAYING THE MIDDLE GROUND...THOUGH BOTH NAM AND GFS CONTINUE
TO WARM THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE
DROPPING INTO THE AREA. THINK THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE COLD AIR TOO
LONG...BUT GIVEN SNOW COVER ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST...HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH UPPER 30S IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE
FAVORING THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER-MID 50S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST.

NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE BENEATH MID CLOUD DECK FOR WAVE TO WORK
WITH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL SATURATION ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHEAST COULD SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE
AS COOLER AIR SINKS IN BEHIND THE WAVE. PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL
INTO WARM LAYER ABOVE FREEZING...BUT THIS LAYER ALSO DRY AND WET
BULB POTENTIAL SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW IF ANY OF
THE PRECIP DOES REACH THE GROUND.

SATURDAY REMAINS FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
SECOND WAVE SLATED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
SIMILAR TO FIRST WAVE...PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SUB-CLOUD
MOISTURE INITIALLY LACKING. TOUGH TO IGNORE POTENTIAL THOUGH...WITH
ALL MODELS SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF...SO HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP
TO OUR NORTHEAST HALF SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. GFS/NAM INDICATE QPF
CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...BUT SEEING DEEPER SATURATION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POP CONFINED THERE FOR NOW.

EACH OF THESE WAVES WILL TEMPER WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...AND SEE
SIMILAR DISCREPANCIES IN LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS DISCUSSED ABOVE
FOR FRIDAY...SO SIMILAR THINKING APPLIES IN KEEPING NORTHEAST TOWARD
MIDDLE RANGE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOUTHWEST ON THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
SPECTRUM...THOUGH NORTHEAST SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER WARMING
POTENTIAL BY SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/SATURDAY SLOWLY ERODING THE SNOW COVER.

BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND ALLOW WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR TO MAKE A GREATER SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE DAYS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE WARM WITH MIXY SOUTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING STRATUS POTENTIAL AT BAY...AND 925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. STRAYED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THESE DAYS...WITH LOWER-MID 50S NORTHEAST...AND LOWER
60S ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

MODELS START TO STRONGLY DIVERGE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS WEDNESDAY...
WITH ECMWF SHOWING A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WHILE GFS PLOWS A SHARP
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS ALSO SEEN AMONG
GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH EXTREMELY HIGH STANDARD DEVIATIONS
FOR HIGHS TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...AND A 25-30 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE
COLDEST AND THE WARMEST MEMBERS IN THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. WITH
THE LACK OF AGREEMENT...STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO BROAD BLEND SHOWING A
SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR NOW. GREATER AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE LONGER
RANGE PERIOD DRY...THOUGH COLD FRONT SEEN ON THE GFS IS FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 051722
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1122 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING WILL BEGIN SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA MOVES EAST. CANADIAN SHORT WAVE PASSING THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND
SHOULD PRODUCE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...MAINLY AT
MID LEVELS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE MARCH SUN SHOULD WARM MORE
THAN GUIDANCE...EVEN NOT COUNTING THE MET WHICH IS WOEFULLY
UNDERDONE...REFLECTING OF COURSE THE NAM LOW LEVELS. STILL...HAVE
SNIPPED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EAST. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S EAST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED WARMING AND ONLY A VERY LIMITED EVENING
DROP IN TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS MAY DECREASE A LITTLE THEN INCREASE A
LITTLE BUT WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. A MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL TREND TO SOUTHWESTERLY...REFLECTING THE WARMING GOING ON.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH AFTER THE EVENING DROP BUT
THEY CERTAINLY WILL NOT FALL LATE TONIGHT UNDER THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A
LITTLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR WILL WORK BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH GFS HOLDING ON
TO SUB-ZERO 925MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF WARMS THE SAME LAYER ANOTHER 7C.
NAM PLAYING THE MIDDLE GROUND...THOUGH BOTH NAM AND GFS CONTINUE
TO WARM THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE
DROPPING INTO THE AREA. THINK THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE COLD AIR TOO
LONG...BUT GIVEN SNOW COVER ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST...HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH UPPER 30S IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE
FAVORING THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER-MID 50S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST.

NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE BENEATH MID CLOUD DECK FOR WAVE TO WORK
WITH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL SATURATION ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHEAST COULD SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE
AS COOLER AIR SINKS IN BEHIND THE WAVE. PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL
INTO WARM LAYER ABOVE FREEZING...BUT THIS LAYER ALSO DRY AND WET
BULB POTENTIAL SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW IF ANY OF
THE PRECIP DOES REACH THE GROUND.

SATURDAY REMAINS FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
SECOND WAVE SLATED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
SIMILAR TO FIRST WAVE...PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SUB-CLOUD
MOISTURE INITIALLY LACKING. TOUGH TO IGNORE POTENTIAL THOUGH...WITH
ALL MODELS SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF...SO HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP
TO OUR NORTHEAST HALF SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. GFS/NAM INDICATE QPF
CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...BUT SEEING DEEPER SATURATION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POP CONFINED THERE FOR NOW.

EACH OF THESE WAVES WILL TEMPER WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...AND SEE
SIMILAR DISCREPANCIES IN LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS DISCUSSED ABOVE
FOR FRIDAY...SO SIMILAR THINKING APPLIES IN KEEPING NORTHEAST TOWARD
MIDDLE RANGE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOUTHWEST ON THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
SPECTRUM...THOUGH NORTHEAST SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER WARMING
POTENTIAL BY SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/SATURDAY SLOWLY ERODING THE SNOW COVER.

BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND ALLOW WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR TO MAKE A GREATER SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE DAYS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE WARM WITH MIXY SOUTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING STRATUS POTENTIAL AT BAY...AND 925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. STRAYED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THESE DAYS...WITH LOWER-MID 50S NORTHEAST...AND LOWER
60S ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

MODELS START TO STRONGLY DIVERGE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS WEDNESDAY...
WITH ECMWF SHOWING A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WHILE GFS PLOWS A SHARP
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS ALSO SEEN AMONG
GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH EXTREMELY HIGH STANDARD DEVIATIONS
FOR HIGHS TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...AND A 25-30 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE
COLDEST AND THE WARMEST MEMBERS IN THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. WITH
THE LACK OF AGREEMENT...STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO BROAD BLEND SHOWING A
SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR NOW. GREATER AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE LONGER
RANGE PERIOD DRY...THOUGH COLD FRONT SEEN ON THE GFS IS FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 051722
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1122 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING WILL BEGIN SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA MOVES EAST. CANADIAN SHORT WAVE PASSING THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND
SHOULD PRODUCE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...MAINLY AT
MID LEVELS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE MARCH SUN SHOULD WARM MORE
THAN GUIDANCE...EVEN NOT COUNTING THE MET WHICH IS WOEFULLY
UNDERDONE...REFLECTING OF COURSE THE NAM LOW LEVELS. STILL...HAVE
SNIPPED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EAST. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S EAST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED WARMING AND ONLY A VERY LIMITED EVENING
DROP IN TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS MAY DECREASE A LITTLE THEN INCREASE A
LITTLE BUT WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. A MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL TREND TO SOUTHWESTERLY...REFLECTING THE WARMING GOING ON.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH AFTER THE EVENING DROP BUT
THEY CERTAINLY WILL NOT FALL LATE TONIGHT UNDER THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A
LITTLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR WILL WORK BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH GFS HOLDING ON
TO SUB-ZERO 925MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF WARMS THE SAME LAYER ANOTHER 7C.
NAM PLAYING THE MIDDLE GROUND...THOUGH BOTH NAM AND GFS CONTINUE
TO WARM THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE
DROPPING INTO THE AREA. THINK THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE COLD AIR TOO
LONG...BUT GIVEN SNOW COVER ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST...HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH UPPER 30S IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE
FAVORING THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER-MID 50S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST.

NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE BENEATH MID CLOUD DECK FOR WAVE TO WORK
WITH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL SATURATION ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHEAST COULD SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE
AS COOLER AIR SINKS IN BEHIND THE WAVE. PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL
INTO WARM LAYER ABOVE FREEZING...BUT THIS LAYER ALSO DRY AND WET
BULB POTENTIAL SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW IF ANY OF
THE PRECIP DOES REACH THE GROUND.

SATURDAY REMAINS FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
SECOND WAVE SLATED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
SIMILAR TO FIRST WAVE...PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SUB-CLOUD
MOISTURE INITIALLY LACKING. TOUGH TO IGNORE POTENTIAL THOUGH...WITH
ALL MODELS SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF...SO HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP
TO OUR NORTHEAST HALF SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. GFS/NAM INDICATE QPF
CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...BUT SEEING DEEPER SATURATION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POP CONFINED THERE FOR NOW.

EACH OF THESE WAVES WILL TEMPER WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...AND SEE
SIMILAR DISCREPANCIES IN LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS DISCUSSED ABOVE
FOR FRIDAY...SO SIMILAR THINKING APPLIES IN KEEPING NORTHEAST TOWARD
MIDDLE RANGE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOUTHWEST ON THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
SPECTRUM...THOUGH NORTHEAST SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER WARMING
POTENTIAL BY SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/SATURDAY SLOWLY ERODING THE SNOW COVER.

BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND ALLOW WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR TO MAKE A GREATER SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE DAYS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE WARM WITH MIXY SOUTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING STRATUS POTENTIAL AT BAY...AND 925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. STRAYED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THESE DAYS...WITH LOWER-MID 50S NORTHEAST...AND LOWER
60S ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

MODELS START TO STRONGLY DIVERGE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS WEDNESDAY...
WITH ECMWF SHOWING A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WHILE GFS PLOWS A SHARP
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS ALSO SEEN AMONG
GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH EXTREMELY HIGH STANDARD DEVIATIONS
FOR HIGHS TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...AND A 25-30 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE
COLDEST AND THE WARMEST MEMBERS IN THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. WITH
THE LACK OF AGREEMENT...STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO BROAD BLEND SHOWING A
SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR NOW. GREATER AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE LONGER
RANGE PERIOD DRY...THOUGH COLD FRONT SEEN ON THE GFS IS FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 051722
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1122 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING WILL BEGIN SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA MOVES EAST. CANADIAN SHORT WAVE PASSING THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND
SHOULD PRODUCE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...MAINLY AT
MID LEVELS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE MARCH SUN SHOULD WARM MORE
THAN GUIDANCE...EVEN NOT COUNTING THE MET WHICH IS WOEFULLY
UNDERDONE...REFLECTING OF COURSE THE NAM LOW LEVELS. STILL...HAVE
SNIPPED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EAST. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S EAST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED WARMING AND ONLY A VERY LIMITED EVENING
DROP IN TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS MAY DECREASE A LITTLE THEN INCREASE A
LITTLE BUT WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. A MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL TREND TO SOUTHWESTERLY...REFLECTING THE WARMING GOING ON.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH AFTER THE EVENING DROP BUT
THEY CERTAINLY WILL NOT FALL LATE TONIGHT UNDER THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A
LITTLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR WILL WORK BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH GFS HOLDING ON
TO SUB-ZERO 925MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF WARMS THE SAME LAYER ANOTHER 7C.
NAM PLAYING THE MIDDLE GROUND...THOUGH BOTH NAM AND GFS CONTINUE
TO WARM THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE
DROPPING INTO THE AREA. THINK THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE COLD AIR TOO
LONG...BUT GIVEN SNOW COVER ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST...HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH UPPER 30S IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE
FAVORING THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER-MID 50S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST.

NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE BENEATH MID CLOUD DECK FOR WAVE TO WORK
WITH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL SATURATION ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHEAST COULD SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE
AS COOLER AIR SINKS IN BEHIND THE WAVE. PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL
INTO WARM LAYER ABOVE FREEZING...BUT THIS LAYER ALSO DRY AND WET
BULB POTENTIAL SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW IF ANY OF
THE PRECIP DOES REACH THE GROUND.

SATURDAY REMAINS FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
SECOND WAVE SLATED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
SIMILAR TO FIRST WAVE...PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SUB-CLOUD
MOISTURE INITIALLY LACKING. TOUGH TO IGNORE POTENTIAL THOUGH...WITH
ALL MODELS SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF...SO HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP
TO OUR NORTHEAST HALF SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. GFS/NAM INDICATE QPF
CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...BUT SEEING DEEPER SATURATION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POP CONFINED THERE FOR NOW.

EACH OF THESE WAVES WILL TEMPER WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...AND SEE
SIMILAR DISCREPANCIES IN LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS DISCUSSED ABOVE
FOR FRIDAY...SO SIMILAR THINKING APPLIES IN KEEPING NORTHEAST TOWARD
MIDDLE RANGE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOUTHWEST ON THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
SPECTRUM...THOUGH NORTHEAST SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER WARMING
POTENTIAL BY SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/SATURDAY SLOWLY ERODING THE SNOW COVER.

BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND ALLOW WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR TO MAKE A GREATER SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE DAYS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE WARM WITH MIXY SOUTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING STRATUS POTENTIAL AT BAY...AND 925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. STRAYED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THESE DAYS...WITH LOWER-MID 50S NORTHEAST...AND LOWER
60S ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

MODELS START TO STRONGLY DIVERGE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS WEDNESDAY...
WITH ECMWF SHOWING A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WHILE GFS PLOWS A SHARP
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS ALSO SEEN AMONG
GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH EXTREMELY HIGH STANDARD DEVIATIONS
FOR HIGHS TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...AND A 25-30 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE
COLDEST AND THE WARMEST MEMBERS IN THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. WITH
THE LACK OF AGREEMENT...STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO BROAD BLEND SHOWING A
SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR NOW. GREATER AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE LONGER
RANGE PERIOD DRY...THOUGH COLD FRONT SEEN ON THE GFS IS FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KABR 051718 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1118 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH QUICKLY RISING
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASED WINDS A BIT ACROSS THE COTEAU
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE. THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING OR DRIFTING SNOW
ALONG I-29 THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE REGION TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS WELL AS
HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR MOST AREAS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA WHERE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOW
COVER. OVERNIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS 925 MB
TEMPS WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. SHOULD ALSO
SEE AN ENHANCEMENT IN WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE COTEAU AS 925 MB
WINDS PEAK AROUND 40 KNOTS FROM 03Z TO 06Z. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SOME STRONGER WINDS IN THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION NONETHELESS. FRIDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A MILD
DAY ACROSS THE CWA AS 925 MB TEMPS WARM EVEN MORE AND WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP. TEMPERED HIGHS A BIT OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND
TEMP FORECASTING HERE WILL BE A CHALLENGE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

WILL ALSO BE WATCHING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME WEAK LIFT AND
LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL STICK WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A RELATIVELY MILD LONG TERM IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL SFC/H85 PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MILD AIR ADVECTING OFF
THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF REMAINS
MUCH WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...AND ITS PROBABLY A BIT TOO WARM.
NONETHELESS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NOTCHING UP SUPERBLEND A
COUPLE DEGREES. MEANWHILE ABOUT THE ONLY CHC FOR MEASURABLE PCPN
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THAT SAID THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS/GEFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

AT THE MOMENT...GOOD VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTHERLY BREEZES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
WEST OVERNIGHT. AT KMBG...WINDS MAY JUST GO CALM OVERNIGHT...WHICH
WOULD INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FOG BY SUNRISE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...DORN







000
FXUS63 KABR 051718 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1118 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH QUICKLY RISING
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASED WINDS A BIT ACROSS THE COTEAU
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE. THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING OR DRIFTING SNOW
ALONG I-29 THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE REGION TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS WELL AS
HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR MOST AREAS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA WHERE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOW
COVER. OVERNIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS 925 MB
TEMPS WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. SHOULD ALSO
SEE AN ENHANCEMENT IN WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE COTEAU AS 925 MB
WINDS PEAK AROUND 40 KNOTS FROM 03Z TO 06Z. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SOME STRONGER WINDS IN THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION NONETHELESS. FRIDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A MILD
DAY ACROSS THE CWA AS 925 MB TEMPS WARM EVEN MORE AND WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP. TEMPERED HIGHS A BIT OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND
TEMP FORECASTING HERE WILL BE A CHALLENGE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

WILL ALSO BE WATCHING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME WEAK LIFT AND
LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL STICK WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A RELATIVELY MILD LONG TERM IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL SFC/H85 PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MILD AIR ADVECTING OFF
THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF REMAINS
MUCH WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...AND ITS PROBABLY A BIT TOO WARM.
NONETHELESS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NOTCHING UP SUPERBLEND A
COUPLE DEGREES. MEANWHILE ABOUT THE ONLY CHC FOR MEASURABLE PCPN
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THAT SAID THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS/GEFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

AT THE MOMENT...GOOD VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTHERLY BREEZES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
WEST OVERNIGHT. AT KMBG...WINDS MAY JUST GO CALM OVERNIGHT...WHICH
WOULD INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FOG BY SUNRISE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...DORN








000
FXUS63 KABR 051632 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1032 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH QUICKLY RISING
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASED WINDS A BIT ACROSS THE COTEAU
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE. THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING OR DRIFTING SNOW
ALONG I-29 THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE REGION TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS WELL AS
HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR MOST AREAS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA WHERE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOW
COVER. OVERNIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS 925 MB
TEMPS WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. SHOULD ALSO
SEE AN ENHANCEMENT IN WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE COTEAU AS 925 MB
WINDS PEAK AROUND 40 KNOTS FROM 03Z TO 06Z. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SOME STRONGER WINDS IN THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION NONETHELESS. FRIDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A MILD
DAY ACROSS THE CWA AS 925 MB TEMPS WARM EVEN MORE AND WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP. TEMPERED HIGHS A BIT OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND
TEMP FORECASTING HERE WILL BE A CHALLENGE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

WILL ALSO BE WATCHING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME WEAK LIFT AND
LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL STICK WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A RELATIVELY MILD LONG TERM IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL SFC/H85 PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MILD AIR ADVECTING OFF
THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF REMAINS
MUCH WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...AND ITS PROBABLY A BIT TOO WARM.
NONETHELESS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NOTCHING UP SUPERBLEND A
COUPLE DEGREES. MEANWHILE ABOUT THE ONLY CHC FOR MEASURABLE PCPN
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THAT SAID THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS/GEFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK







000
FXUS63 KABR 051632 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1032 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH QUICKLY RISING
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASED WINDS A BIT ACROSS THE COTEAU
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE. THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING OR DRIFTING SNOW
ALONG I-29 THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE REGION TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS WELL AS
HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR MOST AREAS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA WHERE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOW
COVER. OVERNIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS 925 MB
TEMPS WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. SHOULD ALSO
SEE AN ENHANCEMENT IN WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE COTEAU AS 925 MB
WINDS PEAK AROUND 40 KNOTS FROM 03Z TO 06Z. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SOME STRONGER WINDS IN THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION NONETHELESS. FRIDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A MILD
DAY ACROSS THE CWA AS 925 MB TEMPS WARM EVEN MORE AND WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP. TEMPERED HIGHS A BIT OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND
TEMP FORECASTING HERE WILL BE A CHALLENGE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

WILL ALSO BE WATCHING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME WEAK LIFT AND
LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL STICK WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A RELATIVELY MILD LONG TERM IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL SFC/H85 PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MILD AIR ADVECTING OFF
THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF REMAINS
MUCH WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...AND ITS PROBABLY A BIT TOO WARM.
NONETHELESS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NOTCHING UP SUPERBLEND A
COUPLE DEGREES. MEANWHILE ABOUT THE ONLY CHC FOR MEASURABLE PCPN
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THAT SAID THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS/GEFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK








000
FXUS63 KABR 051632 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1032 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH QUICKLY RISING
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASED WINDS A BIT ACROSS THE COTEAU
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE. THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING OR DRIFTING SNOW
ALONG I-29 THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE REGION TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS WELL AS
HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR MOST AREAS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA WHERE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOW
COVER. OVERNIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS 925 MB
TEMPS WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. SHOULD ALSO
SEE AN ENHANCEMENT IN WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE COTEAU AS 925 MB
WINDS PEAK AROUND 40 KNOTS FROM 03Z TO 06Z. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SOME STRONGER WINDS IN THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION NONETHELESS. FRIDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A MILD
DAY ACROSS THE CWA AS 925 MB TEMPS WARM EVEN MORE AND WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP. TEMPERED HIGHS A BIT OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND
TEMP FORECASTING HERE WILL BE A CHALLENGE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

WILL ALSO BE WATCHING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME WEAK LIFT AND
LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL STICK WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A RELATIVELY MILD LONG TERM IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL SFC/H85 PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MILD AIR ADVECTING OFF
THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF REMAINS
MUCH WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...AND ITS PROBABLY A BIT TOO WARM.
NONETHELESS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NOTCHING UP SUPERBLEND A
COUPLE DEGREES. MEANWHILE ABOUT THE ONLY CHC FOR MEASURABLE PCPN
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THAT SAID THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS/GEFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK







000
FXUS63 KABR 051632 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1032 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH QUICKLY RISING
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASED WINDS A BIT ACROSS THE COTEAU
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE. THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING OR DRIFTING SNOW
ALONG I-29 THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE REGION TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS WELL AS
HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR MOST AREAS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA WHERE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOW
COVER. OVERNIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS 925 MB
TEMPS WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. SHOULD ALSO
SEE AN ENHANCEMENT IN WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE COTEAU AS 925 MB
WINDS PEAK AROUND 40 KNOTS FROM 03Z TO 06Z. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SOME STRONGER WINDS IN THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION NONETHELESS. FRIDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A MILD
DAY ACROSS THE CWA AS 925 MB TEMPS WARM EVEN MORE AND WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP. TEMPERED HIGHS A BIT OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND
TEMP FORECASTING HERE WILL BE A CHALLENGE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

WILL ALSO BE WATCHING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME WEAK LIFT AND
LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL STICK WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A RELATIVELY MILD LONG TERM IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL SFC/H85 PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MILD AIR ADVECTING OFF
THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF REMAINS
MUCH WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...AND ITS PROBABLY A BIT TOO WARM.
NONETHELESS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NOTCHING UP SUPERBLEND A
COUPLE DEGREES. MEANWHILE ABOUT THE ONLY CHC FOR MEASURABLE PCPN
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THAT SAID THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS/GEFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK








000
FXUS63 KFSD 051130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
530 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING WILL BEGIN SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA MOVES EAST. CANADIAN SHORT WAVE PASSING THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND
SHOULD PRODUCE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...MAINLY AT
MID LEVELS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE MARCH SUN SHOULD WARM MORE
THAN GUIDANCE...EVEN NOT COUNTING THE MET WHICH IS WOEFULLY
UNDERDONE...REFLECTING OF COURSE THE NAM LOW LEVELS. STILL...HAVE
SNIPPED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EAST. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S EAST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED WARMING AND ONLY A VERY LIMITED EVENING
DROP IN TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS MAY DECREASE A LITTLE THEN INCREASE A
LITTLE BUT WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. A MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL TREND TO SOUTHWESTERLY...REFLECTING THE WARMING GOING ON.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH AFTER THE EVENING DROP BUT
THEY CERTAINLY WILL NOT FALL LATE TONIGHT UNDER THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A
LITTLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR WILL WORK BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH GFS HOLDING ON
TO SUB-ZERO 925MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF WARMS THE SAME LAYER ANOTHER 7C.
NAM PLAYING THE MIDDLE GROUND...THOUGH BOTH NAM AND GFS CONTINUE
TO WARM THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE
DROPPING INTO THE AREA. THINK THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE COLD AIR TOO
LONG...BUT GIVEN SNOW COVER ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST...HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH UPPER 30S IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE
FAVORING THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER-MID 50S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST.

NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE BENEATH MID CLOUD DECK FOR WAVE TO WORK
WITH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL SATURATION ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHEAST COULD SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE
AS COOLER AIR SINKS IN BEHIND THE WAVE. PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL
INTO WARM LAYER ABOVE FREEZING...BUT THIS LAYER ALSO DRY AND WET
BULB POTENTIAL SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW IF ANY OF
THE PRECIP DOES REACH THE GROUND.

SATURDAY REMAINS FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
SECOND WAVE SLATED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
SIMILAR TO FIRST WAVE...PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SUB-CLOUD
MOISTURE INITIALLY LACKING. TOUGH TO IGNORE POTENTIAL THOUGH...WITH
ALL MODELS SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF...SO HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP
TO OUR NORTHEAST HALF SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. GFS/NAM INDICATE QPF
CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...BUT SEEING DEEPER SATURATION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POP CONFINED THERE FOR NOW.

EACH OF THESE WAVES WILL TEMPER WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...AND SEE
SIMILAR DISCREPANCIES IN LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS DISCUSSED ABOVE
FOR FRIDAY...SO SIMILAR THINKING APPLIES IN KEEPING NORTHEAST TOWARD
MIDDLE RANGE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOUTHWEST ON THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
SPECTRUM...THOUGH NORTHEAST SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER WARMING
POTENTIAL BY SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/SATURDAY SLOWLY ERODING THE SNOW COVER.

BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND ALLOW WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR TO MAKE A GREATER SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE DAYS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE WARM WITH MIXY SOUTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING STRATUS POTENTIAL AT BAY...AND 925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. STRAYED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THESE DAYS...WITH LOWER-MID 50S NORTHEAST...AND LOWER
60S ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

MODELS START TO STRONGLY DIVERGE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS WEDNESDAY...
WITH ECMWF SHOWING A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WHILE GFS PLOWS A SHARP
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS ALSO SEEN AMONG
GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH EXTREMELY HIGH STANDARD DEVIATIONS
FOR HIGHS TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...AND A 25-30 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE
COLDEST AND THE WARMEST MEMBERS IN THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. WITH
THE LACK OF AGREEMENT...STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO BROAD BLEND SHOWING A
SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR NOW. GREATER AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE LONGER
RANGE PERIOD DRY...THOUGH COLD FRONT SEEN ON THE GFS IS FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED
AT 530 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06/12Z WITH SURFACE GUSTS BELOW 25
KNOTS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 051130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
530 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING WILL BEGIN SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA MOVES EAST. CANADIAN SHORT WAVE PASSING THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND
SHOULD PRODUCE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...MAINLY AT
MID LEVELS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE MARCH SUN SHOULD WARM MORE
THAN GUIDANCE...EVEN NOT COUNTING THE MET WHICH IS WOEFULLY
UNDERDONE...REFLECTING OF COURSE THE NAM LOW LEVELS. STILL...HAVE
SNIPPED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EAST. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S EAST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED WARMING AND ONLY A VERY LIMITED EVENING
DROP IN TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS MAY DECREASE A LITTLE THEN INCREASE A
LITTLE BUT WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. A MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL TREND TO SOUTHWESTERLY...REFLECTING THE WARMING GOING ON.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH AFTER THE EVENING DROP BUT
THEY CERTAINLY WILL NOT FALL LATE TONIGHT UNDER THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A
LITTLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR WILL WORK BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH GFS HOLDING ON
TO SUB-ZERO 925MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF WARMS THE SAME LAYER ANOTHER 7C.
NAM PLAYING THE MIDDLE GROUND...THOUGH BOTH NAM AND GFS CONTINUE
TO WARM THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE
DROPPING INTO THE AREA. THINK THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE COLD AIR TOO
LONG...BUT GIVEN SNOW COVER ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST...HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH UPPER 30S IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE
FAVORING THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER-MID 50S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST.

NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE BENEATH MID CLOUD DECK FOR WAVE TO WORK
WITH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL SATURATION ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHEAST COULD SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE
AS COOLER AIR SINKS IN BEHIND THE WAVE. PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL
INTO WARM LAYER ABOVE FREEZING...BUT THIS LAYER ALSO DRY AND WET
BULB POTENTIAL SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW IF ANY OF
THE PRECIP DOES REACH THE GROUND.

SATURDAY REMAINS FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
SECOND WAVE SLATED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
SIMILAR TO FIRST WAVE...PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SUB-CLOUD
MOISTURE INITIALLY LACKING. TOUGH TO IGNORE POTENTIAL THOUGH...WITH
ALL MODELS SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF...SO HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP
TO OUR NORTHEAST HALF SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. GFS/NAM INDICATE QPF
CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...BUT SEEING DEEPER SATURATION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POP CONFINED THERE FOR NOW.

EACH OF THESE WAVES WILL TEMPER WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...AND SEE
SIMILAR DISCREPANCIES IN LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS DISCUSSED ABOVE
FOR FRIDAY...SO SIMILAR THINKING APPLIES IN KEEPING NORTHEAST TOWARD
MIDDLE RANGE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOUTHWEST ON THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
SPECTRUM...THOUGH NORTHEAST SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER WARMING
POTENTIAL BY SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/SATURDAY SLOWLY ERODING THE SNOW COVER.

BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND ALLOW WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR TO MAKE A GREATER SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE DAYS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE WARM WITH MIXY SOUTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING STRATUS POTENTIAL AT BAY...AND 925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. STRAYED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THESE DAYS...WITH LOWER-MID 50S NORTHEAST...AND LOWER
60S ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

MODELS START TO STRONGLY DIVERGE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS WEDNESDAY...
WITH ECMWF SHOWING A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WHILE GFS PLOWS A SHARP
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS ALSO SEEN AMONG
GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH EXTREMELY HIGH STANDARD DEVIATIONS
FOR HIGHS TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...AND A 25-30 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE
COLDEST AND THE WARMEST MEMBERS IN THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. WITH
THE LACK OF AGREEMENT...STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO BROAD BLEND SHOWING A
SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR NOW. GREATER AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE LONGER
RANGE PERIOD DRY...THOUGH COLD FRONT SEEN ON THE GFS IS FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED
AT 530 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06/12Z WITH SURFACE GUSTS BELOW 25
KNOTS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 051130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
530 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING WILL BEGIN SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA MOVES EAST. CANADIAN SHORT WAVE PASSING THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND
SHOULD PRODUCE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...MAINLY AT
MID LEVELS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE MARCH SUN SHOULD WARM MORE
THAN GUIDANCE...EVEN NOT COUNTING THE MET WHICH IS WOEFULLY
UNDERDONE...REFLECTING OF COURSE THE NAM LOW LEVELS. STILL...HAVE
SNIPPED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EAST. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S EAST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED WARMING AND ONLY A VERY LIMITED EVENING
DROP IN TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS MAY DECREASE A LITTLE THEN INCREASE A
LITTLE BUT WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. A MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL TREND TO SOUTHWESTERLY...REFLECTING THE WARMING GOING ON.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH AFTER THE EVENING DROP BUT
THEY CERTAINLY WILL NOT FALL LATE TONIGHT UNDER THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A
LITTLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR WILL WORK BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH GFS HOLDING ON
TO SUB-ZERO 925MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF WARMS THE SAME LAYER ANOTHER 7C.
NAM PLAYING THE MIDDLE GROUND...THOUGH BOTH NAM AND GFS CONTINUE
TO WARM THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE
DROPPING INTO THE AREA. THINK THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE COLD AIR TOO
LONG...BUT GIVEN SNOW COVER ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST...HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH UPPER 30S IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE
FAVORING THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER-MID 50S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST.

NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE BENEATH MID CLOUD DECK FOR WAVE TO WORK
WITH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL SATURATION ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHEAST COULD SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE
AS COOLER AIR SINKS IN BEHIND THE WAVE. PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL
INTO WARM LAYER ABOVE FREEZING...BUT THIS LAYER ALSO DRY AND WET
BULB POTENTIAL SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW IF ANY OF
THE PRECIP DOES REACH THE GROUND.

SATURDAY REMAINS FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
SECOND WAVE SLATED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
SIMILAR TO FIRST WAVE...PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SUB-CLOUD
MOISTURE INITIALLY LACKING. TOUGH TO IGNORE POTENTIAL THOUGH...WITH
ALL MODELS SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF...SO HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP
TO OUR NORTHEAST HALF SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. GFS/NAM INDICATE QPF
CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...BUT SEEING DEEPER SATURATION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POP CONFINED THERE FOR NOW.

EACH OF THESE WAVES WILL TEMPER WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...AND SEE
SIMILAR DISCREPANCIES IN LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS DISCUSSED ABOVE
FOR FRIDAY...SO SIMILAR THINKING APPLIES IN KEEPING NORTHEAST TOWARD
MIDDLE RANGE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOUTHWEST ON THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
SPECTRUM...THOUGH NORTHEAST SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER WARMING
POTENTIAL BY SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/SATURDAY SLOWLY ERODING THE SNOW COVER.

BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND ALLOW WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR TO MAKE A GREATER SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE DAYS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE WARM WITH MIXY SOUTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING STRATUS POTENTIAL AT BAY...AND 925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. STRAYED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THESE DAYS...WITH LOWER-MID 50S NORTHEAST...AND LOWER
60S ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

MODELS START TO STRONGLY DIVERGE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS WEDNESDAY...
WITH ECMWF SHOWING A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WHILE GFS PLOWS A SHARP
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS ALSO SEEN AMONG
GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH EXTREMELY HIGH STANDARD DEVIATIONS
FOR HIGHS TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...AND A 25-30 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE
COLDEST AND THE WARMEST MEMBERS IN THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. WITH
THE LACK OF AGREEMENT...STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO BROAD BLEND SHOWING A
SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR NOW. GREATER AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE LONGER
RANGE PERIOD DRY...THOUGH COLD FRONT SEEN ON THE GFS IS FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED
AT 530 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06/12Z WITH SURFACE GUSTS BELOW 25
KNOTS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 051130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
530 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING WILL BEGIN SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA MOVES EAST. CANADIAN SHORT WAVE PASSING THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND
SHOULD PRODUCE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...MAINLY AT
MID LEVELS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE MARCH SUN SHOULD WARM MORE
THAN GUIDANCE...EVEN NOT COUNTING THE MET WHICH IS WOEFULLY
UNDERDONE...REFLECTING OF COURSE THE NAM LOW LEVELS. STILL...HAVE
SNIPPED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EAST. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S EAST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED WARMING AND ONLY A VERY LIMITED EVENING
DROP IN TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS MAY DECREASE A LITTLE THEN INCREASE A
LITTLE BUT WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. A MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL TREND TO SOUTHWESTERLY...REFLECTING THE WARMING GOING ON.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH AFTER THE EVENING DROP BUT
THEY CERTAINLY WILL NOT FALL LATE TONIGHT UNDER THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A
LITTLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR WILL WORK BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH GFS HOLDING ON
TO SUB-ZERO 925MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF WARMS THE SAME LAYER ANOTHER 7C.
NAM PLAYING THE MIDDLE GROUND...THOUGH BOTH NAM AND GFS CONTINUE
TO WARM THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE
DROPPING INTO THE AREA. THINK THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE COLD AIR TOO
LONG...BUT GIVEN SNOW COVER ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST...HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH UPPER 30S IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE
FAVORING THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER-MID 50S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST.

NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE BENEATH MID CLOUD DECK FOR WAVE TO WORK
WITH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL SATURATION ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHEAST COULD SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE
AS COOLER AIR SINKS IN BEHIND THE WAVE. PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL
INTO WARM LAYER ABOVE FREEZING...BUT THIS LAYER ALSO DRY AND WET
BULB POTENTIAL SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW IF ANY OF
THE PRECIP DOES REACH THE GROUND.

SATURDAY REMAINS FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
SECOND WAVE SLATED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
SIMILAR TO FIRST WAVE...PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SUB-CLOUD
MOISTURE INITIALLY LACKING. TOUGH TO IGNORE POTENTIAL THOUGH...WITH
ALL MODELS SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF...SO HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP
TO OUR NORTHEAST HALF SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. GFS/NAM INDICATE QPF
CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...BUT SEEING DEEPER SATURATION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POP CONFINED THERE FOR NOW.

EACH OF THESE WAVES WILL TEMPER WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...AND SEE
SIMILAR DISCREPANCIES IN LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS DISCUSSED ABOVE
FOR FRIDAY...SO SIMILAR THINKING APPLIES IN KEEPING NORTHEAST TOWARD
MIDDLE RANGE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOUTHWEST ON THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
SPECTRUM...THOUGH NORTHEAST SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER WARMING
POTENTIAL BY SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/SATURDAY SLOWLY ERODING THE SNOW COVER.

BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND ALLOW WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR TO MAKE A GREATER SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE DAYS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE WARM WITH MIXY SOUTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING STRATUS POTENTIAL AT BAY...AND 925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. STRAYED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THESE DAYS...WITH LOWER-MID 50S NORTHEAST...AND LOWER
60S ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

MODELS START TO STRONGLY DIVERGE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS WEDNESDAY...
WITH ECMWF SHOWING A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WHILE GFS PLOWS A SHARP
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS ALSO SEEN AMONG
GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH EXTREMELY HIGH STANDARD DEVIATIONS
FOR HIGHS TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...AND A 25-30 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE
COLDEST AND THE WARMEST MEMBERS IN THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. WITH
THE LACK OF AGREEMENT...STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO BROAD BLEND SHOWING A
SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR NOW. GREATER AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE LONGER
RANGE PERIOD DRY...THOUGH COLD FRONT SEEN ON THE GFS IS FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED
AT 530 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06/12Z WITH SURFACE GUSTS BELOW 25
KNOTS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KABR 051118 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
518 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE REGION TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS WELL AS
HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR MOST AREAS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA WHERE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOW
COVER. OVERNIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS 925 MB
TEMPS WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. SHOULD ALSO
SEE AN ENHANCEMENT IN WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE COTEAU AS 925 MB
WINDS PEAK AROUND 40 KNOTS FROM 03Z TO 06Z. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SOME STRONGER WINDS IN THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION NONETHELESS. FRIDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A MILD
DAY ACROSS THE CWA AS 925 MB TEMPS WARM EVEN MORE AND WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP. TEMPERED HIGHS A BIT OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND
TEMP FORECASTING HERE WILL BE A CHALLENGE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

WILL ALSO BE WATCHING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME WEAK LIFT AND
LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL STICK WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A RELATIVELY MILD LONG TERM IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL SFC/H85 PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MILD AIR ADVECTING OFF
THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF REMAINS
MUCH WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...AND ITS PROBABLY A BIT TOO WARM.
NONETHELESS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NOTCHING UP SUPERBLEND A
COUPLE DEGREES. MEANWHILE ABOUT THE ONLY CHC FOR MEASURABLE PCPN
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THAT SAID THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS/GEFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK







000
FXUS63 KABR 051118 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
518 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE REGION TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS WELL AS
HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR MOST AREAS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA WHERE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOW
COVER. OVERNIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS 925 MB
TEMPS WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. SHOULD ALSO
SEE AN ENHANCEMENT IN WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE COTEAU AS 925 MB
WINDS PEAK AROUND 40 KNOTS FROM 03Z TO 06Z. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SOME STRONGER WINDS IN THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION NONETHELESS. FRIDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A MILD
DAY ACROSS THE CWA AS 925 MB TEMPS WARM EVEN MORE AND WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP. TEMPERED HIGHS A BIT OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND
TEMP FORECASTING HERE WILL BE A CHALLENGE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

WILL ALSO BE WATCHING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME WEAK LIFT AND
LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL STICK WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A RELATIVELY MILD LONG TERM IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL SFC/H85 PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MILD AIR ADVECTING OFF
THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF REMAINS
MUCH WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...AND ITS PROBABLY A BIT TOO WARM.
NONETHELESS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NOTCHING UP SUPERBLEND A
COUPLE DEGREES. MEANWHILE ABOUT THE ONLY CHC FOR MEASURABLE PCPN
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THAT SAID THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS/GEFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK








000
FXUS63 KABR 051118 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
518 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE REGION TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS WELL AS
HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR MOST AREAS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA WHERE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOW
COVER. OVERNIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS 925 MB
TEMPS WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. SHOULD ALSO
SEE AN ENHANCEMENT IN WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE COTEAU AS 925 MB
WINDS PEAK AROUND 40 KNOTS FROM 03Z TO 06Z. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SOME STRONGER WINDS IN THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION NONETHELESS. FRIDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A MILD
DAY ACROSS THE CWA AS 925 MB TEMPS WARM EVEN MORE AND WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP. TEMPERED HIGHS A BIT OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND
TEMP FORECASTING HERE WILL BE A CHALLENGE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

WILL ALSO BE WATCHING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME WEAK LIFT AND
LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL STICK WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A RELATIVELY MILD LONG TERM IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL SFC/H85 PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MILD AIR ADVECTING OFF
THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF REMAINS
MUCH WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...AND ITS PROBABLY A BIT TOO WARM.
NONETHELESS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NOTCHING UP SUPERBLEND A
COUPLE DEGREES. MEANWHILE ABOUT THE ONLY CHC FOR MEASURABLE PCPN
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THAT SAID THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS/GEFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK








000
FXUS63 KFSD 050942
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING WILL BEGIN SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA MOVES EAST. CANADIAN SHORT WAVE PASSING THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND
SHOULD PRODUCE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...MAINLY AT
MID LEVELS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE MARCH SUN SHOULD WARM MORE
THAN GUIDANCE...EVEN NOT COUNTING THE MET WHICH IS WOEFULLY
UNDERDONE...REFLECTING OF COURSE THE NAM LOW LEVELS. STILL...HAVE
SNIPPED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EAST. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S EAST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED WARMING AND ONLY A VERY LIMITED EVENING
DROP IN TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS MAY DECREASE A LITTLE THEN INCREASE A
LITTLE BUT WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. A MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL TREND TO SOUTHWESTERLY...REFLECTING THE WARMING GOING ON.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH AFTER THE EVENING DROP BUT
THEY CERTAINLY WILL NOT FALL LATE TONIGHT UNDER THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A
LITTLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR WILL WORK BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH GFS HOLDING ON
TO SUB-ZERO 925MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF WARMS THE SAME LAYER ANOTHER 7C.
NAM PLAYING THE MIDDLE GROUND...THOUGH BOTH NAM AND GFS CONTINUE
TO WARM THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE
DROPPING INTO THE AREA. THINK THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE COLD AIR TOO
LONG...BUT GIVEN SNOW COVER ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST...HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH UPPER 30S IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE
FAVORING THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER-MID 50S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST.

NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE BENEATH MID CLOUD DECK FOR WAVE TO WORK
WITH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL SATURATION ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHEAST COULD SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE
AS COOLER AIR SINKS IN BEHIND THE WAVE. PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL
INTO WARM LAYER ABOVE FREEZING...BUT THIS LAYER ALSO DRY AND WET
BULB POTENTIAL SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW IF ANY OF
THE PRECIP DOES REACH THE GROUND.

SATURDAY REMAINS FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
SECOND WAVE SLATED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
SIMILAR TO FIRST WAVE...PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SUB-CLOUD
MOISTURE INITIALLY LACKING. TOUGH TO IGNORE POTENTIAL THOUGH...WITH
ALL MODELS SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF...SO HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP
TO OUR NORTHEAST HALF SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. GFS/NAM INDICATE QPF
CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...BUT SEEING DEEPER SATURATION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POP CONFINED THERE FOR NOW.

EACH OF THESE WAVES WILL TEMPER WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...AND SEE
SIMILAR DISCREPANCIES IN LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS DISCUSSED ABOVE
FOR FRIDAY...SO SIMILAR THINKING APPLIES IN KEEPING NORTHEAST TOWARD
MIDDLE RANGE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOUTHWEST ON THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
SPECTRUM...THOUGH NORTHEAST SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER WARMING
POTENTIAL BY SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/SATURDAY SLOWLY ERODING THE SNOW COVER.

BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND ALLOW WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR TO MAKE A GREATER SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE DAYS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE WARM WITH MIXY SOUTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING STRATUS POTENTIAL AT BAY...AND 925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. STRAYED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THESE DAYS...WITH LOWER-MID 50S NORTHEAST...AND LOWER
60S ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

MODELS START TO STRONGLY DIVERGE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS WEDNESDAY...
WITH ECMWF SHOWING A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WHILE GFS PLOWS A SHARP
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS ALSO SEEN AMONG
GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH EXTREMELY HIGH STANDARD DEVIATIONS
FOR HIGHS TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...AND A 25-30 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE
COLDEST AND THE WARMEST MEMBERS IN THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. WITH
THE LACK OF AGREEMENT...STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO BROAD BLEND SHOWING A
SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR NOW. GREATER AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE LONGER
RANGE PERIOD DRY...THOUGH COLD FRONT SEEN ON THE GFS IS FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH DEEP ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WEAK FLOW TO WEAK WARM
ADVECTION AT LOWER LEVELS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KFSD AND KSUX...WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHALLOW ICE FOG...PERHAPS
DUE TO MAN MADE INFLUENCE. TOO LOW PROBABILITY EVENT TO MENTION IN
TAFS AT THIS POINT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 050942
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING WILL BEGIN SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA MOVES EAST. CANADIAN SHORT WAVE PASSING THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND
SHOULD PRODUCE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...MAINLY AT
MID LEVELS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE MARCH SUN SHOULD WARM MORE
THAN GUIDANCE...EVEN NOT COUNTING THE MET WHICH IS WOEFULLY
UNDERDONE...REFLECTING OF COURSE THE NAM LOW LEVELS. STILL...HAVE
SNIPPED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EAST. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S EAST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED WARMING AND ONLY A VERY LIMITED EVENING
DROP IN TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS MAY DECREASE A LITTLE THEN INCREASE A
LITTLE BUT WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. A MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL TREND TO SOUTHWESTERLY...REFLECTING THE WARMING GOING ON.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH AFTER THE EVENING DROP BUT
THEY CERTAINLY WILL NOT FALL LATE TONIGHT UNDER THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A
LITTLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR WILL WORK BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH GFS HOLDING ON
TO SUB-ZERO 925MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF WARMS THE SAME LAYER ANOTHER 7C.
NAM PLAYING THE MIDDLE GROUND...THOUGH BOTH NAM AND GFS CONTINUE
TO WARM THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE
DROPPING INTO THE AREA. THINK THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE COLD AIR TOO
LONG...BUT GIVEN SNOW COVER ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST...HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH UPPER 30S IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE
FAVORING THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER-MID 50S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST.

NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE BENEATH MID CLOUD DECK FOR WAVE TO WORK
WITH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL SATURATION ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHEAST COULD SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE
AS COOLER AIR SINKS IN BEHIND THE WAVE. PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL
INTO WARM LAYER ABOVE FREEZING...BUT THIS LAYER ALSO DRY AND WET
BULB POTENTIAL SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW IF ANY OF
THE PRECIP DOES REACH THE GROUND.

SATURDAY REMAINS FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
SECOND WAVE SLATED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
SIMILAR TO FIRST WAVE...PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SUB-CLOUD
MOISTURE INITIALLY LACKING. TOUGH TO IGNORE POTENTIAL THOUGH...WITH
ALL MODELS SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF...SO HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP
TO OUR NORTHEAST HALF SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. GFS/NAM INDICATE QPF
CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...BUT SEEING DEEPER SATURATION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POP CONFINED THERE FOR NOW.

EACH OF THESE WAVES WILL TEMPER WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...AND SEE
SIMILAR DISCREPANCIES IN LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS DISCUSSED ABOVE
FOR FRIDAY...SO SIMILAR THINKING APPLIES IN KEEPING NORTHEAST TOWARD
MIDDLE RANGE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOUTHWEST ON THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
SPECTRUM...THOUGH NORTHEAST SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER WARMING
POTENTIAL BY SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/SATURDAY SLOWLY ERODING THE SNOW COVER.

BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND ALLOW WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR TO MAKE A GREATER SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE DAYS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE WARM WITH MIXY SOUTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING STRATUS POTENTIAL AT BAY...AND 925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. STRAYED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THESE DAYS...WITH LOWER-MID 50S NORTHEAST...AND LOWER
60S ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

MODELS START TO STRONGLY DIVERGE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS WEDNESDAY...
WITH ECMWF SHOWING A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WHILE GFS PLOWS A SHARP
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS ALSO SEEN AMONG
GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH EXTREMELY HIGH STANDARD DEVIATIONS
FOR HIGHS TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...AND A 25-30 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE
COLDEST AND THE WARMEST MEMBERS IN THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. WITH
THE LACK OF AGREEMENT...STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO BROAD BLEND SHOWING A
SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR NOW. GREATER AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE LONGER
RANGE PERIOD DRY...THOUGH COLD FRONT SEEN ON THE GFS IS FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH DEEP ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WEAK FLOW TO WEAK WARM
ADVECTION AT LOWER LEVELS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KFSD AND KSUX...WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHALLOW ICE FOG...PERHAPS
DUE TO MAN MADE INFLUENCE. TOO LOW PROBABILITY EVENT TO MENTION IN
TAFS AT THIS POINT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN



000
FXUS63 KFSD 050942
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING WILL BEGIN SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA MOVES EAST. CANADIAN SHORT WAVE PASSING THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND
SHOULD PRODUCE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...MAINLY AT
MID LEVELS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE MARCH SUN SHOULD WARM MORE
THAN GUIDANCE...EVEN NOT COUNTING THE MET WHICH IS WOEFULLY
UNDERDONE...REFLECTING OF COURSE THE NAM LOW LEVELS. STILL...HAVE
SNIPPED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EAST. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S EAST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED WARMING AND ONLY A VERY LIMITED EVENING
DROP IN TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS MAY DECREASE A LITTLE THEN INCREASE A
LITTLE BUT WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. A MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL TREND TO SOUTHWESTERLY...REFLECTING THE WARMING GOING ON.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH AFTER THE EVENING DROP BUT
THEY CERTAINLY WILL NOT FALL LATE TONIGHT UNDER THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A
LITTLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR WILL WORK BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH GFS HOLDING ON
TO SUB-ZERO 925MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF WARMS THE SAME LAYER ANOTHER 7C.
NAM PLAYING THE MIDDLE GROUND...THOUGH BOTH NAM AND GFS CONTINUE
TO WARM THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE
DROPPING INTO THE AREA. THINK THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE COLD AIR TOO
LONG...BUT GIVEN SNOW COVER ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST...HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH UPPER 30S IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE
FAVORING THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER-MID 50S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST.

NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE BENEATH MID CLOUD DECK FOR WAVE TO WORK
WITH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL SATURATION ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHEAST COULD SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE
AS COOLER AIR SINKS IN BEHIND THE WAVE. PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL
INTO WARM LAYER ABOVE FREEZING...BUT THIS LAYER ALSO DRY AND WET
BULB POTENTIAL SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW IF ANY OF
THE PRECIP DOES REACH THE GROUND.

SATURDAY REMAINS FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
SECOND WAVE SLATED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
SIMILAR TO FIRST WAVE...PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SUB-CLOUD
MOISTURE INITIALLY LACKING. TOUGH TO IGNORE POTENTIAL THOUGH...WITH
ALL MODELS SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF...SO HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP
TO OUR NORTHEAST HALF SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. GFS/NAM INDICATE QPF
CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...BUT SEEING DEEPER SATURATION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POP CONFINED THERE FOR NOW.

EACH OF THESE WAVES WILL TEMPER WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...AND SEE
SIMILAR DISCREPANCIES IN LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS DISCUSSED ABOVE
FOR FRIDAY...SO SIMILAR THINKING APPLIES IN KEEPING NORTHEAST TOWARD
MIDDLE RANGE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOUTHWEST ON THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
SPECTRUM...THOUGH NORTHEAST SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER WARMING
POTENTIAL BY SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/SATURDAY SLOWLY ERODING THE SNOW COVER.

BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND ALLOW WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR TO MAKE A GREATER SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE DAYS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE WARM WITH MIXY SOUTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING STRATUS POTENTIAL AT BAY...AND 925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. STRAYED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THESE DAYS...WITH LOWER-MID 50S NORTHEAST...AND LOWER
60S ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

MODELS START TO STRONGLY DIVERGE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS WEDNESDAY...
WITH ECMWF SHOWING A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WHILE GFS PLOWS A SHARP
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS ALSO SEEN AMONG
GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH EXTREMELY HIGH STANDARD DEVIATIONS
FOR HIGHS TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...AND A 25-30 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE
COLDEST AND THE WARMEST MEMBERS IN THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. WITH
THE LACK OF AGREEMENT...STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO BROAD BLEND SHOWING A
SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR NOW. GREATER AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE LONGER
RANGE PERIOD DRY...THOUGH COLD FRONT SEEN ON THE GFS IS FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH DEEP ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WEAK FLOW TO WEAK WARM
ADVECTION AT LOWER LEVELS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KFSD AND KSUX...WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHALLOW ICE FOG...PERHAPS
DUE TO MAN MADE INFLUENCE. TOO LOW PROBABILITY EVENT TO MENTION IN
TAFS AT THIS POINT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN



000
FXUS63 KFSD 050942
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING WILL BEGIN SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA MOVES EAST. CANADIAN SHORT WAVE PASSING THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND
SHOULD PRODUCE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...MAINLY AT
MID LEVELS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE MARCH SUN SHOULD WARM MORE
THAN GUIDANCE...EVEN NOT COUNTING THE MET WHICH IS WOEFULLY
UNDERDONE...REFLECTING OF COURSE THE NAM LOW LEVELS. STILL...HAVE
SNIPPED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EAST. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S EAST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED WARMING AND ONLY A VERY LIMITED EVENING
DROP IN TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS MAY DECREASE A LITTLE THEN INCREASE A
LITTLE BUT WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. A MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL TREND TO SOUTHWESTERLY...REFLECTING THE WARMING GOING ON.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH AFTER THE EVENING DROP BUT
THEY CERTAINLY WILL NOT FALL LATE TONIGHT UNDER THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A
LITTLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR WILL WORK BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH GFS HOLDING ON
TO SUB-ZERO 925MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF WARMS THE SAME LAYER ANOTHER 7C.
NAM PLAYING THE MIDDLE GROUND...THOUGH BOTH NAM AND GFS CONTINUE
TO WARM THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE
DROPPING INTO THE AREA. THINK THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE COLD AIR TOO
LONG...BUT GIVEN SNOW COVER ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST...HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH UPPER 30S IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE
FAVORING THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER-MID 50S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST.

NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE BENEATH MID CLOUD DECK FOR WAVE TO WORK
WITH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL SATURATION ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHEAST COULD SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE
AS COOLER AIR SINKS IN BEHIND THE WAVE. PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL
INTO WARM LAYER ABOVE FREEZING...BUT THIS LAYER ALSO DRY AND WET
BULB POTENTIAL SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW IF ANY OF
THE PRECIP DOES REACH THE GROUND.

SATURDAY REMAINS FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
SECOND WAVE SLATED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
SIMILAR TO FIRST WAVE...PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SUB-CLOUD
MOISTURE INITIALLY LACKING. TOUGH TO IGNORE POTENTIAL THOUGH...WITH
ALL MODELS SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF...SO HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP
TO OUR NORTHEAST HALF SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. GFS/NAM INDICATE QPF
CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...BUT SEEING DEEPER SATURATION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POP CONFINED THERE FOR NOW.

EACH OF THESE WAVES WILL TEMPER WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...AND SEE
SIMILAR DISCREPANCIES IN LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS DISCUSSED ABOVE
FOR FRIDAY...SO SIMILAR THINKING APPLIES IN KEEPING NORTHEAST TOWARD
MIDDLE RANGE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOUTHWEST ON THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
SPECTRUM...THOUGH NORTHEAST SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER WARMING
POTENTIAL BY SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/SATURDAY SLOWLY ERODING THE SNOW COVER.

BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND ALLOW WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR TO MAKE A GREATER SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE DAYS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE WARM WITH MIXY SOUTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING STRATUS POTENTIAL AT BAY...AND 925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. STRAYED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THESE DAYS...WITH LOWER-MID 50S NORTHEAST...AND LOWER
60S ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

MODELS START TO STRONGLY DIVERGE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS WEDNESDAY...
WITH ECMWF SHOWING A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WHILE GFS PLOWS A SHARP
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS ALSO SEEN AMONG
GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH EXTREMELY HIGH STANDARD DEVIATIONS
FOR HIGHS TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...AND A 25-30 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE
COLDEST AND THE WARMEST MEMBERS IN THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. WITH
THE LACK OF AGREEMENT...STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO BROAD BLEND SHOWING A
SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR NOW. GREATER AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE LONGER
RANGE PERIOD DRY...THOUGH COLD FRONT SEEN ON THE GFS IS FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH DEEP ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WEAK FLOW TO WEAK WARM
ADVECTION AT LOWER LEVELS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KFSD AND KSUX...WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHALLOW ICE FOG...PERHAPS
DUE TO MAN MADE INFLUENCE. TOO LOW PROBABILITY EVENT TO MENTION IN
TAFS AT THIS POINT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN



000
FXUS63 KFSD 050942
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING WILL BEGIN SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA MOVES EAST. CANADIAN SHORT WAVE PASSING THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND
SHOULD PRODUCE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...MAINLY AT
MID LEVELS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE MARCH SUN SHOULD WARM MORE
THAN GUIDANCE...EVEN NOT COUNTING THE MET WHICH IS WOEFULLY
UNDERDONE...REFLECTING OF COURSE THE NAM LOW LEVELS. STILL...HAVE
SNIPPED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EAST. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S EAST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED WARMING AND ONLY A VERY LIMITED EVENING
DROP IN TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS MAY DECREASE A LITTLE THEN INCREASE A
LITTLE BUT WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. A MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL TREND TO SOUTHWESTERLY...REFLECTING THE WARMING GOING ON.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH AFTER THE EVENING DROP BUT
THEY CERTAINLY WILL NOT FALL LATE TONIGHT UNDER THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A
LITTLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR WILL WORK BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH GFS HOLDING ON
TO SUB-ZERO 925MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF WARMS THE SAME LAYER ANOTHER 7C.
NAM PLAYING THE MIDDLE GROUND...THOUGH BOTH NAM AND GFS CONTINUE
TO WARM THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE
DROPPING INTO THE AREA. THINK THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE COLD AIR TOO
LONG...BUT GIVEN SNOW COVER ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST...HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH UPPER 30S IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE
FAVORING THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER-MID 50S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST.

NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE BENEATH MID CLOUD DECK FOR WAVE TO WORK
WITH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL SATURATION ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHEAST COULD SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE
AS COOLER AIR SINKS IN BEHIND THE WAVE. PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL
INTO WARM LAYER ABOVE FREEZING...BUT THIS LAYER ALSO DRY AND WET
BULB POTENTIAL SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW IF ANY OF
THE PRECIP DOES REACH THE GROUND.

SATURDAY REMAINS FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
SECOND WAVE SLATED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
SIMILAR TO FIRST WAVE...PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SUB-CLOUD
MOISTURE INITIALLY LACKING. TOUGH TO IGNORE POTENTIAL THOUGH...WITH
ALL MODELS SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF...SO HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP
TO OUR NORTHEAST HALF SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. GFS/NAM INDICATE QPF
CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...BUT SEEING DEEPER SATURATION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POP CONFINED THERE FOR NOW.

EACH OF THESE WAVES WILL TEMPER WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...AND SEE
SIMILAR DISCREPANCIES IN LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS DISCUSSED ABOVE
FOR FRIDAY...SO SIMILAR THINKING APPLIES IN KEEPING NORTHEAST TOWARD
MIDDLE RANGE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOUTHWEST ON THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
SPECTRUM...THOUGH NORTHEAST SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER WARMING
POTENTIAL BY SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/SATURDAY SLOWLY ERODING THE SNOW COVER.

BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND ALLOW WARMER
LOW LEVEL AIR TO MAKE A GREATER SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE DAYS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE WARM WITH MIXY SOUTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING STRATUS POTENTIAL AT BAY...AND 925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. STRAYED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THESE DAYS...WITH LOWER-MID 50S NORTHEAST...AND LOWER
60S ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

MODELS START TO STRONGLY DIVERGE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS WEDNESDAY...
WITH ECMWF SHOWING A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WHILE GFS PLOWS A SHARP
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS ALSO SEEN AMONG
GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH EXTREMELY HIGH STANDARD DEVIATIONS
FOR HIGHS TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...AND A 25-30 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE
COLDEST AND THE WARMEST MEMBERS IN THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. WITH
THE LACK OF AGREEMENT...STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO BROAD BLEND SHOWING A
SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR NOW. GREATER AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE LONGER
RANGE PERIOD DRY...THOUGH COLD FRONT SEEN ON THE GFS IS FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH DEEP ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WEAK FLOW TO WEAK WARM
ADVECTION AT LOWER LEVELS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KFSD AND KSUX...WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHALLOW ICE FOG...PERHAPS
DUE TO MAN MADE INFLUENCE. TOO LOW PROBABILITY EVENT TO MENTION IN
TAFS AT THIS POINT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN



000
FXUS63 KABR 050941
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
341 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE REGION TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS WELL AS
HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR MOST AREAS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA WHERE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOW
COVER. OVERNIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS 925 MB
TEMPS WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. SHOULD ALSO
SEE AN ENHANCEMENT IN WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE COTEAU AS 925 MB
WINDS PEAK AROUND 40 KNOTS FROM 03Z TO 06Z. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SOME STRONGER WINDS IN THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION NONETHELESS. FRIDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A MILD
DAY ACROSS THE CWA AS 925 MB TEMPS WARM EVEN MORE AND WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP. TEMPERED HIGHS A BIT OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND
TEMP FORECASTING HERE WILL BE A CHALLENGE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

WILL ALSO BE WATCHING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME WEAK LIFT AND
LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL STICK WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A RELATIVELY MILD LONG TERM IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL SFC/H85 PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MILD AIR ADVECTING OFF
THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF REMAINS
MUCH WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...AND ITS PROBABLY A BIT TOO WARM.
NONETHELESS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NOTCHING UP SUPERBLEND A
COUPLE DEGREES. MEANWHILE ABOUT THE ONLY CHC FOR MEASURABLE PCPN
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THAT SAID THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS/GEFS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KABR 050941
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
341 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE REGION TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS WELL AS
HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR MOST AREAS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA WHERE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOW
COVER. OVERNIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS 925 MB
TEMPS WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. SHOULD ALSO
SEE AN ENHANCEMENT IN WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE COTEAU AS 925 MB
WINDS PEAK AROUND 40 KNOTS FROM 03Z TO 06Z. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SOME STRONGER WINDS IN THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION NONETHELESS. FRIDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A MILD
DAY ACROSS THE CWA AS 925 MB TEMPS WARM EVEN MORE AND WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP. TEMPERED HIGHS A BIT OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND
TEMP FORECASTING HERE WILL BE A CHALLENGE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

WILL ALSO BE WATCHING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME WEAK LIFT AND
LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL STICK WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A RELATIVELY MILD LONG TERM IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL SFC/H85 PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MILD AIR ADVECTING OFF
THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF REMAINS
MUCH WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...AND ITS PROBABLY A BIT TOO WARM.
NONETHELESS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NOTCHING UP SUPERBLEND A
COUPLE DEGREES. MEANWHILE ABOUT THE ONLY CHC FOR MEASURABLE PCPN
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THAT SAID THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS/GEFS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 050941
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
341 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE REGION TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS WELL AS
HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR MOST AREAS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA WHERE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOW
COVER. OVERNIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS 925 MB
TEMPS WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. SHOULD ALSO
SEE AN ENHANCEMENT IN WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE COTEAU AS 925 MB
WINDS PEAK AROUND 40 KNOTS FROM 03Z TO 06Z. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SOME STRONGER WINDS IN THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION NONETHELESS. FRIDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A MILD
DAY ACROSS THE CWA AS 925 MB TEMPS WARM EVEN MORE AND WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP. TEMPERED HIGHS A BIT OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND
TEMP FORECASTING HERE WILL BE A CHALLENGE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

WILL ALSO BE WATCHING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME WEAK LIFT AND
LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL STICK WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A RELATIVELY MILD LONG TERM IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL SFC/H85 PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MILD AIR ADVECTING OFF
THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF REMAINS
MUCH WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...AND ITS PROBABLY A BIT TOO WARM.
NONETHELESS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NOTCHING UP SUPERBLEND A
COUPLE DEGREES. MEANWHILE ABOUT THE ONLY CHC FOR MEASURABLE PCPN
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THAT SAID THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS/GEFS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KABR 050941
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
341 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE REGION TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS WELL AS
HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR MOST AREAS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA WHERE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOW
COVER. OVERNIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS 925 MB
TEMPS WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. SHOULD ALSO
SEE AN ENHANCEMENT IN WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE COTEAU AS 925 MB
WINDS PEAK AROUND 40 KNOTS FROM 03Z TO 06Z. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SOME STRONGER WINDS IN THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION NONETHELESS. FRIDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A MILD
DAY ACROSS THE CWA AS 925 MB TEMPS WARM EVEN MORE AND WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP. TEMPERED HIGHS A BIT OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND
TEMP FORECASTING HERE WILL BE A CHALLENGE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

WILL ALSO BE WATCHING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME WEAK LIFT AND
LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL STICK WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A RELATIVELY MILD LONG TERM IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL SFC/H85 PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MILD AIR ADVECTING OFF
THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF REMAINS
MUCH WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...AND ITS PROBABLY A BIT TOO WARM.
NONETHELESS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NOTCHING UP SUPERBLEND A
COUPLE DEGREES. MEANWHILE ABOUT THE ONLY CHC FOR MEASURABLE PCPN
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THAT SAID THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS/GEFS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KUNR 050928
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
228 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES 1035MB HIGH ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA/IOWA...WITH LEE TROF/WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
MONTANA/WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...DROPPING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS SHORTWAVE CROSSES
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. WITH WEAK LIFT/DRY LOW LEVELS...ONLY
EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION TODAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING ABOUT 10C.
LINGERING SNOW COVER ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOME...WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY AND WARMER FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S LOOK POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS63 KUNR 050928
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
228 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES 1035MB HIGH ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA/IOWA...WITH LEE TROF/WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
MONTANA/WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...DROPPING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS SHORTWAVE CROSSES
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. WITH WEAK LIFT/DRY LOW LEVELS...ONLY
EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION TODAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING ABOUT 10C.
LINGERING SNOW COVER ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOME...WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY AND WARMER FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S LOOK POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15






000
FXUS63 KABR 050538 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1138 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS...HAVE ADJUSTED
LOWS DOWN A LITTLE FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND
TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WINDS
WILL ALSO FALL OFF. THEREFORE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH A WIND CHILL
HEADLINE EVEN THOUGH APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN -25 AND -35
ACROSS THE EAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THU
MORNING RETURN FLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN. STILL A MAJOR SPREAD IN AMBIENT
MIX DOWN TEMPS IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS COOLER BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT TEMPS TRENDED MORE TOWARD
THE GFS OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND A WARMER FORECAST WHERE THERE
IS BARE GROUND.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CLIP THE
DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH THIS
EVENT...ESPECIALLY FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND
MODEL DIFFERENCES KEPT THE PRECIP MENTION AS ALL SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TREND FOR FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAINS
IN TACT WITH MILD AIR ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES THAT PASS THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW BUT
BUFKIT PROFILES ONLY BRIEFLY SUGGEST SATURATION AND LIFT...WITH
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION. ON THE FLIP SIDE...WARMEST
DAYS WILL BE MONDAY/TUESDAY THANKS TO WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO
ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KABR 050538 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1138 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS...HAVE ADJUSTED
LOWS DOWN A LITTLE FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND
TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WINDS
WILL ALSO FALL OFF. THEREFORE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH A WIND CHILL
HEADLINE EVEN THOUGH APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN -25 AND -35
ACROSS THE EAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THU
MORNING RETURN FLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN. STILL A MAJOR SPREAD IN AMBIENT
MIX DOWN TEMPS IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS COOLER BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT TEMPS TRENDED MORE TOWARD
THE GFS OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND A WARMER FORECAST WHERE THERE
IS BARE GROUND.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CLIP THE
DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH THIS
EVENT...ESPECIALLY FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND
MODEL DIFFERENCES KEPT THE PRECIP MENTION AS ALL SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TREND FOR FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAINS
IN TACT WITH MILD AIR ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES THAT PASS THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW BUT
BUFKIT PROFILES ONLY BRIEFLY SUGGEST SATURATION AND LIFT...WITH
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION. ON THE FLIP SIDE...WARMEST
DAYS WILL BE MONDAY/TUESDAY THANKS TO WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO
ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KABR 050538 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1138 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS...HAVE ADJUSTED
LOWS DOWN A LITTLE FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND
TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WINDS
WILL ALSO FALL OFF. THEREFORE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH A WIND CHILL
HEADLINE EVEN THOUGH APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN -25 AND -35
ACROSS THE EAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THU
MORNING RETURN FLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN. STILL A MAJOR SPREAD IN AMBIENT
MIX DOWN TEMPS IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS COOLER BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT TEMPS TRENDED MORE TOWARD
THE GFS OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND A WARMER FORECAST WHERE THERE
IS BARE GROUND.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CLIP THE
DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH THIS
EVENT...ESPECIALLY FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND
MODEL DIFFERENCES KEPT THE PRECIP MENTION AS ALL SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TREND FOR FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAINS
IN TACT WITH MILD AIR ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES THAT PASS THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW BUT
BUFKIT PROFILES ONLY BRIEFLY SUGGEST SATURATION AND LIFT...WITH
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION. ON THE FLIP SIDE...WARMEST
DAYS WILL BE MONDAY/TUESDAY THANKS TO WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO
ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KABR 050538 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1138 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS...HAVE ADJUSTED
LOWS DOWN A LITTLE FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND
TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WINDS
WILL ALSO FALL OFF. THEREFORE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH A WIND CHILL
HEADLINE EVEN THOUGH APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN -25 AND -35
ACROSS THE EAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THU
MORNING RETURN FLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN. STILL A MAJOR SPREAD IN AMBIENT
MIX DOWN TEMPS IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS COOLER BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT TEMPS TRENDED MORE TOWARD
THE GFS OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND A WARMER FORECAST WHERE THERE
IS BARE GROUND.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CLIP THE
DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH THIS
EVENT...ESPECIALLY FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND
MODEL DIFFERENCES KEPT THE PRECIP MENTION AS ALL SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TREND FOR FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAINS
IN TACT WITH MILD AIR ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES THAT PASS THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW BUT
BUFKIT PROFILES ONLY BRIEFLY SUGGEST SATURATION AND LIFT...WITH
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION. ON THE FLIP SIDE...WARMEST
DAYS WILL BE MONDAY/TUESDAY THANKS TO WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO
ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KABR 050538 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1138 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS...HAVE ADJUSTED
LOWS DOWN A LITTLE FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND
TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WINDS
WILL ALSO FALL OFF. THEREFORE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH A WIND CHILL
HEADLINE EVEN THOUGH APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN -25 AND -35
ACROSS THE EAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THU
MORNING RETURN FLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN. STILL A MAJOR SPREAD IN AMBIENT
MIX DOWN TEMPS IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS COOLER BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT TEMPS TRENDED MORE TOWARD
THE GFS OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND A WARMER FORECAST WHERE THERE
IS BARE GROUND.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CLIP THE
DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH THIS
EVENT...ESPECIALLY FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND
MODEL DIFFERENCES KEPT THE PRECIP MENTION AS ALL SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TREND FOR FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAINS
IN TACT WITH MILD AIR ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES THAT PASS THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW BUT
BUFKIT PROFILES ONLY BRIEFLY SUGGEST SATURATION AND LIFT...WITH
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION. ON THE FLIP SIDE...WARMEST
DAYS WILL BE MONDAY/TUESDAY THANKS TO WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO
ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KUNR 050513
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1013 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG 180KT JET AT 300MB OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
PLACES THE CWA IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION...PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NE WYOMING. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAVE HELPED TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER WESTERN SD...AND WHILE THERE ARE WEAK
RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUMULUS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO A WIDE T/TD SPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TODAY. STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND WAA WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MAY
STEADILY RISE OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD
DUE TO THE WSW FLOW AND STRONG WAA. IN FACT...700MB AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS AND 20S FOR
THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE
DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 050513
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1013 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG 180KT JET AT 300MB OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
PLACES THE CWA IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION...PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NE WYOMING. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAVE HELPED TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER WESTERN SD...AND WHILE THERE ARE WEAK
RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUMULUS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO A WIDE T/TD SPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TODAY. STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND WAA WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MAY
STEADILY RISE OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD
DUE TO THE WSW FLOW AND STRONG WAA. IN FACT...700MB AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS AND 20S FOR
THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE
DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 050513
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1013 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG 180KT JET AT 300MB OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
PLACES THE CWA IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION...PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NE WYOMING. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAVE HELPED TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER WESTERN SD...AND WHILE THERE ARE WEAK
RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUMULUS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO A WIDE T/TD SPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TODAY. STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND WAA WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MAY
STEADILY RISE OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD
DUE TO THE WSW FLOW AND STRONG WAA. IN FACT...700MB AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS AND 20S FOR
THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE
DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 050513
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1013 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG 180KT JET AT 300MB OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
PLACES THE CWA IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION...PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NE WYOMING. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAVE HELPED TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER WESTERN SD...AND WHILE THERE ARE WEAK
RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUMULUS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO A WIDE T/TD SPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TODAY. STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND WAA WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MAY
STEADILY RISE OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD
DUE TO THE WSW FLOW AND STRONG WAA. IN FACT...700MB AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS AND 20S FOR
THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE
DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KFSD 050422
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1022 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE LAST BITTERLY COLD NIGHT FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT BEFORE THE WARMING TREND FINALLY ARRIVES. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...MOVING OVERHEAD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP BELOW 10 MPH THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER. WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER
SUNSET...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID TEENS
BELOW ZERO IN EAST CENTRAL SD AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WIND CHILLS
DROP TO AROUND 20 TO 25 BELOW WHERE THE COLDEST AMBIENT READINGS
WILL BE FOUND...BUT GIVEN THAT WINDS WILL BE WELL UNDER 10
MPH...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

RETURN FLOW ON THURSDAY BRINGS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST IN ACROSS AREAS WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER WHERE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LITTLE TO NO
SNOWPACK WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MIX INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.
TO THE EAST...RECENT SNOWCOVER AND WEAKER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
LIMIT WARMING BUT WILL STILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT FROM TODAY. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE AT 925 HPA IN THE EVENING
HOURS ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.  WITH ELEVATED AREAS REMAINING
SOMEWHAT MIXED...HAVE RAISED FORECAST LOWS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BUFFALO RIDGE.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WARMER DAYS AS 925 HPA TEMPS
WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.  WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...WAS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE IN WARMING NORTH
OF I-90 AND EAST OF I-29.

FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW.  TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF WHERE TO PLACE ANY POTENTIAL POPS...AS
MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED AND WAVE PLACEMENT IS SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT.  FOR NOW...FOCUSED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO WHERE THE MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS IN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND NAM.  THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST....TRACKING
CLOSER TO A KHON-KFSD-KSLB LINE.  PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO QUITE
TRICKY...BUT GIVEN TIMING THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL
MAINLY BE SNOW.

ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED WAVE DROPS DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
SUNDAY.  MODELS INDICATE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND BOTH WAVES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS IN
QUESTION.  HAVE A 5 DEGREE C SPREAD IN THE 925 HPA TEMPS ON
SUNDAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO SUPER BLEND
GUIDANCE OVER THE WEEKEND.

MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH 925 HPA TEMPS CLIMBING TO + 10 C OR MORE...HAVE SIDED TOWARDS
THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LIMITED SNOW PACK EXPECTED BY THEN.
STUCK CLOSER TO GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY AS FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE
STARTS TO TAKE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY FLAVOR.  WITH THE EASTERLY
COMPONENT...THE MIXING POTENTIAL DECREASES SOME ALONG WITH THE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH DEEP ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WEAK FLOW TO WEAK WARM
ADVECTION AT LOWER LEVELS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KFSD AND KSUX...WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHALLOW ICE FOG...PERHAPS
DUE TO MAN MADE INFLUENCE. TOO LOW PROBABILITY EVENT TO MENTION IN
TAFS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 050422
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1022 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE LAST BITTERLY COLD NIGHT FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT BEFORE THE WARMING TREND FINALLY ARRIVES. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...MOVING OVERHEAD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP BELOW 10 MPH THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER. WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER
SUNSET...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID TEENS
BELOW ZERO IN EAST CENTRAL SD AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WIND CHILLS
DROP TO AROUND 20 TO 25 BELOW WHERE THE COLDEST AMBIENT READINGS
WILL BE FOUND...BUT GIVEN THAT WINDS WILL BE WELL UNDER 10
MPH...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

RETURN FLOW ON THURSDAY BRINGS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST IN ACROSS AREAS WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER WHERE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LITTLE TO NO
SNOWPACK WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MIX INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.
TO THE EAST...RECENT SNOWCOVER AND WEAKER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
LIMIT WARMING BUT WILL STILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT FROM TODAY. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE AT 925 HPA IN THE EVENING
HOURS ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.  WITH ELEVATED AREAS REMAINING
SOMEWHAT MIXED...HAVE RAISED FORECAST LOWS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BUFFALO RIDGE.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WARMER DAYS AS 925 HPA TEMPS
WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.  WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...WAS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE IN WARMING NORTH
OF I-90 AND EAST OF I-29.

FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW.  TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF WHERE TO PLACE ANY POTENTIAL POPS...AS
MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED AND WAVE PLACEMENT IS SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT.  FOR NOW...FOCUSED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO WHERE THE MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS IN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND NAM.  THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST....TRACKING
CLOSER TO A KHON-KFSD-KSLB LINE.  PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO QUITE
TRICKY...BUT GIVEN TIMING THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL
MAINLY BE SNOW.

ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED WAVE DROPS DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
SUNDAY.  MODELS INDICATE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND BOTH WAVES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS IN
QUESTION.  HAVE A 5 DEGREE C SPREAD IN THE 925 HPA TEMPS ON
SUNDAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO SUPER BLEND
GUIDANCE OVER THE WEEKEND.

MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH 925 HPA TEMPS CLIMBING TO + 10 C OR MORE...HAVE SIDED TOWARDS
THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LIMITED SNOW PACK EXPECTED BY THEN.
STUCK CLOSER TO GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY AS FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE
STARTS TO TAKE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY FLAVOR.  WITH THE EASTERLY
COMPONENT...THE MIXING POTENTIAL DECREASES SOME ALONG WITH THE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH DEEP ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WEAK FLOW TO WEAK WARM
ADVECTION AT LOWER LEVELS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KFSD AND KSUX...WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHALLOW ICE FOG...PERHAPS
DUE TO MAN MADE INFLUENCE. TOO LOW PROBABILITY EVENT TO MENTION IN
TAFS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN



000
FXUS63 KABR 050254 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
854 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS...HAVE ADJUSTED
LOWS DOWN A LITTLE FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND
TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WINDS
WILL ALSO FALL OFF. THEREFORE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH A WIND CHILL
HEADLINE EVEN THOUGH APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN -25 AND -35
ACROSS THE EAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THU
MORNING RETURN FLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN. STILL A MAJOR SPREAD IN AMBIENT
MIX DOWN TEMPS IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS COOLER BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT TEMPS TRENDED MORE TOWARD
THE GFS OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND A WARMER FORECAST WHERE THERE
IS BARE GROUND.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CLIP THE
DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH THIS
EVENT...ESPECIALLY FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND
MODEL DIFFERENCES KEPT THE PRECIP MENTION AS ALL SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TREND FOR FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAINS
IN TACT WITH MILD AIR ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES THAT PASS THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW BUT
BUFKIT PROFILES ONLY BRIEFLY SUGGEST SATURATION AND LIFT...WITH
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION. ON THE FLIP SIDE...WARMEST
DAYS WILL BE MONDAY/TUESDAY THANKS TO WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO
ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 050254 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
854 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS...HAVE ADJUSTED
LOWS DOWN A LITTLE FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND
TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WINDS
WILL ALSO FALL OFF. THEREFORE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH A WIND CHILL
HEADLINE EVEN THOUGH APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN -25 AND -35
ACROSS THE EAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THU
MORNING RETURN FLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN. STILL A MAJOR SPREAD IN AMBIENT
MIX DOWN TEMPS IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS COOLER BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT TEMPS TRENDED MORE TOWARD
THE GFS OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND A WARMER FORECAST WHERE THERE
IS BARE GROUND.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CLIP THE
DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH THIS
EVENT...ESPECIALLY FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND
MODEL DIFFERENCES KEPT THE PRECIP MENTION AS ALL SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TREND FOR FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAINS
IN TACT WITH MILD AIR ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES THAT PASS THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW BUT
BUFKIT PROFILES ONLY BRIEFLY SUGGEST SATURATION AND LIFT...WITH
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION. ON THE FLIP SIDE...WARMEST
DAYS WILL BE MONDAY/TUESDAY THANKS TO WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO
ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KABR 042351 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND
TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WINDS
WILL ALSO FALL OFF. THEREFORE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH A WIND CHILL
HEADLINE EVEN THOUGH APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN -25 AND -35
ACROSS THE EAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THU
MORNING RETURN FLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN. STILL A MAJOR SPREAD IN AMBIENT
MIX DOWN TEMPS IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS COOLER BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT TEMPS TRENDED MORE TOWARD
THE GFS OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND A WARMER FORECAST WHERE THERE
IS BARE GROUND.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CLIP THE
DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH THIS
EVENT...ESPECIALLY FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND
MODEL DIFFERENCES KEPT THE PRECIP MENTION AS ALL SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TREND FOR FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAINS
IN TACT WITH MILD AIR ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES THAT PASS THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW BUT
BUFKIT PROFILES ONLY BRIEFLY SUGGEST SATURATION AND LIFT...WITH
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION. ON THE FLIP SIDE...WARMEST
DAYS WILL BE MONDAY/TUESDAY THANKS TO WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO
ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR








000
FXUS63 KABR 042351 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND
TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WINDS
WILL ALSO FALL OFF. THEREFORE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH A WIND CHILL
HEADLINE EVEN THOUGH APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN -25 AND -35
ACROSS THE EAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THU
MORNING RETURN FLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN. STILL A MAJOR SPREAD IN AMBIENT
MIX DOWN TEMPS IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS COOLER BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT TEMPS TRENDED MORE TOWARD
THE GFS OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND A WARMER FORECAST WHERE THERE
IS BARE GROUND.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CLIP THE
DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH THIS
EVENT...ESPECIALLY FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND
MODEL DIFFERENCES KEPT THE PRECIP MENTION AS ALL SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TREND FOR FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAINS
IN TACT WITH MILD AIR ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES THAT PASS THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW BUT
BUFKIT PROFILES ONLY BRIEFLY SUGGEST SATURATION AND LIFT...WITH
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION. ON THE FLIP SIDE...WARMEST
DAYS WILL BE MONDAY/TUESDAY THANKS TO WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO
ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR








000
FXUS63 KABR 042351 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND
TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WINDS
WILL ALSO FALL OFF. THEREFORE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH A WIND CHILL
HEADLINE EVEN THOUGH APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN -25 AND -35
ACROSS THE EAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THU
MORNING RETURN FLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN. STILL A MAJOR SPREAD IN AMBIENT
MIX DOWN TEMPS IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS COOLER BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT TEMPS TRENDED MORE TOWARD
THE GFS OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND A WARMER FORECAST WHERE THERE
IS BARE GROUND.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CLIP THE
DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH THIS
EVENT...ESPECIALLY FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND
MODEL DIFFERENCES KEPT THE PRECIP MENTION AS ALL SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TREND FOR FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAINS
IN TACT WITH MILD AIR ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES THAT PASS THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW BUT
BUFKIT PROFILES ONLY BRIEFLY SUGGEST SATURATION AND LIFT...WITH
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION. ON THE FLIP SIDE...WARMEST
DAYS WILL BE MONDAY/TUESDAY THANKS TO WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO
ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 042351 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND
TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WINDS
WILL ALSO FALL OFF. THEREFORE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH A WIND CHILL
HEADLINE EVEN THOUGH APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN -25 AND -35
ACROSS THE EAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THU
MORNING RETURN FLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN. STILL A MAJOR SPREAD IN AMBIENT
MIX DOWN TEMPS IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS COOLER BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT TEMPS TRENDED MORE TOWARD
THE GFS OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND A WARMER FORECAST WHERE THERE
IS BARE GROUND.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CLIP THE
DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH THIS
EVENT...ESPECIALLY FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND
MODEL DIFFERENCES KEPT THE PRECIP MENTION AS ALL SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TREND FOR FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAINS
IN TACT WITH MILD AIR ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES THAT PASS THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW BUT
BUFKIT PROFILES ONLY BRIEFLY SUGGEST SATURATION AND LIFT...WITH
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION. ON THE FLIP SIDE...WARMEST
DAYS WILL BE MONDAY/TUESDAY THANKS TO WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO
ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KUNR 042335
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
435 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG 180KT JET AT 300MB OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
PLACES THE CWA IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION...PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NE WYOMING. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAVE HELPED TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER WESTERN SD...AND WHILE THERE ARE WEAK
RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUMULUS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO A WIDE T/TD SPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TODAY. STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND WAA WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MAY
STEADILY RISE OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD
DUE TO THE WSW FLOW AND STRONG WAA. IN FACT...700MB AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS AND 20S FOR
THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE
DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 433 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 042335
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
435 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG 180KT JET AT 300MB OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
PLACES THE CWA IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION...PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NE WYOMING. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAVE HELPED TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER WESTERN SD...AND WHILE THERE ARE WEAK
RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUMULUS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO A WIDE T/TD SPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TODAY. STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND WAA WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MAY
STEADILY RISE OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD
DUE TO THE WSW FLOW AND STRONG WAA. IN FACT...700MB AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS AND 20S FOR
THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE
DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 433 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 042335
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
435 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG 180KT JET AT 300MB OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
PLACES THE CWA IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION...PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NE WYOMING. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAVE HELPED TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER WESTERN SD...AND WHILE THERE ARE WEAK
RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUMULUS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO A WIDE T/TD SPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TODAY. STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND WAA WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MAY
STEADILY RISE OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD
DUE TO THE WSW FLOW AND STRONG WAA. IN FACT...700MB AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS AND 20S FOR
THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE
DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 433 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 042335
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
435 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG 180KT JET AT 300MB OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
PLACES THE CWA IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION...PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NE WYOMING. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAVE HELPED TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER WESTERN SD...AND WHILE THERE ARE WEAK
RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUMULUS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO A WIDE T/TD SPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TODAY. STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND WAA WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MAY
STEADILY RISE OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD
DUE TO THE WSW FLOW AND STRONG WAA. IN FACT...700MB AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS AND 20S FOR
THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE
DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 433 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 042335
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
435 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG 180KT JET AT 300MB OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
PLACES THE CWA IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION...PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NE WYOMING. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAVE HELPED TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER WESTERN SD...AND WHILE THERE ARE WEAK
RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUMULUS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO A WIDE T/TD SPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TODAY. STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND WAA WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MAY
STEADILY RISE OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD
DUE TO THE WSW FLOW AND STRONG WAA. IN FACT...700MB AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS AND 20S FOR
THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE
DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 433 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 042335
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
435 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG 180KT JET AT 300MB OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
PLACES THE CWA IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION...PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NE WYOMING. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAVE HELPED TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER WESTERN SD...AND WHILE THERE ARE WEAK
RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUMULUS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO A WIDE T/TD SPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TODAY. STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND WAA WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MAY
STEADILY RISE OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD
DUE TO THE WSW FLOW AND STRONG WAA. IN FACT...700MB AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS AND 20S FOR
THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE
DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 433 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KFSD 042334
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
534 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE LAST BITTERLY COLD NIGHT FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT BEFORE THE WARMING TREND FINALLY ARRIVES. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...MOVING OVERHEAD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP BELOW 10 MPH THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER. WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER
SUNSET...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID TEENS
BELOW ZERO IN EAST CENTRAL SD AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WIND CHILLS
DROP TO AROUND 20 TO 25 BELOW WHERE THE COLDEST AMBIENT READINGS
WILL BE FOUND...BUT GIVEN THAT WINDS WILL BE WELL UNDER 10
MPH...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

RETURN FLOW ON THURSDAY BRINGS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST IN ACROSS AREAS WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER WHERE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LITTLE TO NO
SNOWPACK WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MIX INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.
TO THE EAST...RECENT SNOWCOVER AND WEAKER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
LIMIT WARMING BUT WILL STILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT FROM TODAY. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE AT 925 HPA IN THE EVENING
HOURS ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.  WITH ELEVATED AREAS REMAINING
SOMEWHAT MIXED...HAVE RAISED FORECAST LOWS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BUFFALO RIDGE.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WARMER DAYS AS 925 HPA TEMPS
WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.  WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...WAS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE IN WARMING NORTH
OF I-90 AND EAST OF I-29.

FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW.  TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF WHERE TO PLACE ANY POTENTIAL POPS...AS
MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED AND WAVE PLACEMENT IS SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT.  FOR NOW...FOCUSED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO WHERE THE MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS IN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND NAM.  THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST....TRACKING
CLOSER TO A KHON-KFSD-KSLB LINE.  PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO QUITE
TRICKY...BUT GIVEN TIMING THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL
MAINLY BE SNOW.

ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED WAVE DROPS DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
SUNDAY.  MODELS INDICATE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND BOTH WAVES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS IN
QUESTION.  HAVE A 5 DEGREE C SPREAD IN THE 925 HPA TEMPS ON
SUNDAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO SUPER BLEND
GUIDANCE OVER THE WEEKEND.

MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH 925 HPA TEMPS CLIMBING TO + 10 C OR MORE...HAVE SIDED TOWARDS
THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LIMITED SNOW PACK EXPECTED BY THEN.
STUCK CLOSER TO GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY AS FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE
STARTS TO TAKE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY FLAVOR.  WITH THE EASTERLY
COMPONENT...THE MIXING POTENTIAL DECREASES SOME ALONG WITH THE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

ANY LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS EAST OF A KHON TO KFSD TO KSLB LINE
WILL DISSIPATE SOON AFTER 00Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WITH DEEP ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WEAK FLOW
TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AT LOWER LEVELS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KFSD AND
KSUX...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHALLOW ICE
FOG...PERHAPS DUE TO MAN MADE INFLUENCES...BY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 042334
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
534 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE LAST BITTERLY COLD NIGHT FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT BEFORE THE WARMING TREND FINALLY ARRIVES. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...MOVING OVERHEAD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP BELOW 10 MPH THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER. WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER
SUNSET...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID TEENS
BELOW ZERO IN EAST CENTRAL SD AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WIND CHILLS
DROP TO AROUND 20 TO 25 BELOW WHERE THE COLDEST AMBIENT READINGS
WILL BE FOUND...BUT GIVEN THAT WINDS WILL BE WELL UNDER 10
MPH...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

RETURN FLOW ON THURSDAY BRINGS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST IN ACROSS AREAS WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER WHERE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LITTLE TO NO
SNOWPACK WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MIX INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.
TO THE EAST...RECENT SNOWCOVER AND WEAKER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
LIMIT WARMING BUT WILL STILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT FROM TODAY. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE AT 925 HPA IN THE EVENING
HOURS ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.  WITH ELEVATED AREAS REMAINING
SOMEWHAT MIXED...HAVE RAISED FORECAST LOWS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BUFFALO RIDGE.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WARMER DAYS AS 925 HPA TEMPS
WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.  WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...WAS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE IN WARMING NORTH
OF I-90 AND EAST OF I-29.

FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW.  TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF WHERE TO PLACE ANY POTENTIAL POPS...AS
MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED AND WAVE PLACEMENT IS SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT.  FOR NOW...FOCUSED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO WHERE THE MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS IN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND NAM.  THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST....TRACKING
CLOSER TO A KHON-KFSD-KSLB LINE.  PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO QUITE
TRICKY...BUT GIVEN TIMING THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL
MAINLY BE SNOW.

ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED WAVE DROPS DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
SUNDAY.  MODELS INDICATE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND BOTH WAVES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS IN
QUESTION.  HAVE A 5 DEGREE C SPREAD IN THE 925 HPA TEMPS ON
SUNDAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO SUPER BLEND
GUIDANCE OVER THE WEEKEND.

MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH 925 HPA TEMPS CLIMBING TO + 10 C OR MORE...HAVE SIDED TOWARDS
THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LIMITED SNOW PACK EXPECTED BY THEN.
STUCK CLOSER TO GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY AS FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE
STARTS TO TAKE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY FLAVOR.  WITH THE EASTERLY
COMPONENT...THE MIXING POTENTIAL DECREASES SOME ALONG WITH THE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

ANY LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS EAST OF A KHON TO KFSD TO KSLB LINE
WILL DISSIPATE SOON AFTER 00Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WITH DEEP ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WEAK FLOW
TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AT LOWER LEVELS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KFSD AND
KSUX...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHALLOW ICE
FOG...PERHAPS DUE TO MAN MADE INFLUENCES...BY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN



000
FXUS63 KFSD 042334
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
534 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE LAST BITTERLY COLD NIGHT FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT BEFORE THE WARMING TREND FINALLY ARRIVES. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...MOVING OVERHEAD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP BELOW 10 MPH THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER. WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER
SUNSET...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID TEENS
BELOW ZERO IN EAST CENTRAL SD AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WIND CHILLS
DROP TO AROUND 20 TO 25 BELOW WHERE THE COLDEST AMBIENT READINGS
WILL BE FOUND...BUT GIVEN THAT WINDS WILL BE WELL UNDER 10
MPH...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

RETURN FLOW ON THURSDAY BRINGS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST IN ACROSS AREAS WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER WHERE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LITTLE TO NO
SNOWPACK WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MIX INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.
TO THE EAST...RECENT SNOWCOVER AND WEAKER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
LIMIT WARMING BUT WILL STILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT FROM TODAY. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE AT 925 HPA IN THE EVENING
HOURS ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.  WITH ELEVATED AREAS REMAINING
SOMEWHAT MIXED...HAVE RAISED FORECAST LOWS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BUFFALO RIDGE.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WARMER DAYS AS 925 HPA TEMPS
WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.  WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...WAS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE IN WARMING NORTH
OF I-90 AND EAST OF I-29.

FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW.  TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF WHERE TO PLACE ANY POTENTIAL POPS...AS
MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED AND WAVE PLACEMENT IS SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT.  FOR NOW...FOCUSED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO WHERE THE MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS IN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND NAM.  THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST....TRACKING
CLOSER TO A KHON-KFSD-KSLB LINE.  PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO QUITE
TRICKY...BUT GIVEN TIMING THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL
MAINLY BE SNOW.

ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED WAVE DROPS DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
SUNDAY.  MODELS INDICATE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND BOTH WAVES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS IN
QUESTION.  HAVE A 5 DEGREE C SPREAD IN THE 925 HPA TEMPS ON
SUNDAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO SUPER BLEND
GUIDANCE OVER THE WEEKEND.

MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH 925 HPA TEMPS CLIMBING TO + 10 C OR MORE...HAVE SIDED TOWARDS
THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LIMITED SNOW PACK EXPECTED BY THEN.
STUCK CLOSER TO GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY AS FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE
STARTS TO TAKE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY FLAVOR.  WITH THE EASTERLY
COMPONENT...THE MIXING POTENTIAL DECREASES SOME ALONG WITH THE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

ANY LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS EAST OF A KHON TO KFSD TO KSLB LINE
WILL DISSIPATE SOON AFTER 00Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WITH DEEP ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WEAK FLOW
TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AT LOWER LEVELS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KFSD AND
KSUX...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHALLOW ICE
FOG...PERHAPS DUE TO MAN MADE INFLUENCES...BY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN



000
FXUS63 KFSD 042334
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
534 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE LAST BITTERLY COLD NIGHT FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT BEFORE THE WARMING TREND FINALLY ARRIVES. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...MOVING OVERHEAD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP BELOW 10 MPH THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER. WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER
SUNSET...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID TEENS
BELOW ZERO IN EAST CENTRAL SD AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WIND CHILLS
DROP TO AROUND 20 TO 25 BELOW WHERE THE COLDEST AMBIENT READINGS
WILL BE FOUND...BUT GIVEN THAT WINDS WILL BE WELL UNDER 10
MPH...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

RETURN FLOW ON THURSDAY BRINGS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST IN ACROSS AREAS WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER WHERE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LITTLE TO NO
SNOWPACK WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MIX INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.
TO THE EAST...RECENT SNOWCOVER AND WEAKER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
LIMIT WARMING BUT WILL STILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT FROM TODAY. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE AT 925 HPA IN THE EVENING
HOURS ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.  WITH ELEVATED AREAS REMAINING
SOMEWHAT MIXED...HAVE RAISED FORECAST LOWS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BUFFALO RIDGE.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WARMER DAYS AS 925 HPA TEMPS
WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.  WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...WAS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE IN WARMING NORTH
OF I-90 AND EAST OF I-29.

FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW.  TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF WHERE TO PLACE ANY POTENTIAL POPS...AS
MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED AND WAVE PLACEMENT IS SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT.  FOR NOW...FOCUSED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO WHERE THE MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS IN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND NAM.  THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST....TRACKING
CLOSER TO A KHON-KFSD-KSLB LINE.  PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO QUITE
TRICKY...BUT GIVEN TIMING THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL
MAINLY BE SNOW.

ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED WAVE DROPS DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
SUNDAY.  MODELS INDICATE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND BOTH WAVES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS IN
QUESTION.  HAVE A 5 DEGREE C SPREAD IN THE 925 HPA TEMPS ON
SUNDAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO SUPER BLEND
GUIDANCE OVER THE WEEKEND.

MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH 925 HPA TEMPS CLIMBING TO + 10 C OR MORE...HAVE SIDED TOWARDS
THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LIMITED SNOW PACK EXPECTED BY THEN.
STUCK CLOSER TO GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY AS FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE
STARTS TO TAKE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY FLAVOR.  WITH THE EASTERLY
COMPONENT...THE MIXING POTENTIAL DECREASES SOME ALONG WITH THE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

ANY LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS EAST OF A KHON TO KFSD TO KSLB LINE
WILL DISSIPATE SOON AFTER 00Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WITH DEEP ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WEAK FLOW
TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AT LOWER LEVELS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KFSD AND
KSUX...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHALLOW ICE
FOG...PERHAPS DUE TO MAN MADE INFLUENCES...BY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN



000
FXUS63 KFSD 042334
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
534 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE LAST BITTERLY COLD NIGHT FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT BEFORE THE WARMING TREND FINALLY ARRIVES. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...MOVING OVERHEAD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP BELOW 10 MPH THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER. WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER
SUNSET...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID TEENS
BELOW ZERO IN EAST CENTRAL SD AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WIND CHILLS
DROP TO AROUND 20 TO 25 BELOW WHERE THE COLDEST AMBIENT READINGS
WILL BE FOUND...BUT GIVEN THAT WINDS WILL BE WELL UNDER 10
MPH...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

RETURN FLOW ON THURSDAY BRINGS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST IN ACROSS AREAS WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER WHERE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LITTLE TO NO
SNOWPACK WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MIX INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.
TO THE EAST...RECENT SNOWCOVER AND WEAKER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
LIMIT WARMING BUT WILL STILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT FROM TODAY. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE AT 925 HPA IN THE EVENING
HOURS ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.  WITH ELEVATED AREAS REMAINING
SOMEWHAT MIXED...HAVE RAISED FORECAST LOWS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BUFFALO RIDGE.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WARMER DAYS AS 925 HPA TEMPS
WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.  WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...WAS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE IN WARMING NORTH
OF I-90 AND EAST OF I-29.

FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW.  TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF WHERE TO PLACE ANY POTENTIAL POPS...AS
MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED AND WAVE PLACEMENT IS SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT.  FOR NOW...FOCUSED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO WHERE THE MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS IN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND NAM.  THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST....TRACKING
CLOSER TO A KHON-KFSD-KSLB LINE.  PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO QUITE
TRICKY...BUT GIVEN TIMING THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL
MAINLY BE SNOW.

ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED WAVE DROPS DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
SUNDAY.  MODELS INDICATE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND BOTH WAVES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS IN
QUESTION.  HAVE A 5 DEGREE C SPREAD IN THE 925 HPA TEMPS ON
SUNDAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO SUPER BLEND
GUIDANCE OVER THE WEEKEND.

MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH 925 HPA TEMPS CLIMBING TO + 10 C OR MORE...HAVE SIDED TOWARDS
THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LIMITED SNOW PACK EXPECTED BY THEN.
STUCK CLOSER TO GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY AS FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE
STARTS TO TAKE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY FLAVOR.  WITH THE EASTERLY
COMPONENT...THE MIXING POTENTIAL DECREASES SOME ALONG WITH THE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

ANY LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS EAST OF A KHON TO KFSD TO KSLB LINE
WILL DISSIPATE SOON AFTER 00Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WITH DEEP ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WEAK FLOW
TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AT LOWER LEVELS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KFSD AND
KSUX...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHALLOW ICE
FOG...PERHAPS DUE TO MAN MADE INFLUENCES...BY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN



000
FXUS63 KFSD 042334
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
534 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE LAST BITTERLY COLD NIGHT FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT BEFORE THE WARMING TREND FINALLY ARRIVES. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...MOVING OVERHEAD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP BELOW 10 MPH THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER. WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER
SUNSET...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID TEENS
BELOW ZERO IN EAST CENTRAL SD AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WIND CHILLS
DROP TO AROUND 20 TO 25 BELOW WHERE THE COLDEST AMBIENT READINGS
WILL BE FOUND...BUT GIVEN THAT WINDS WILL BE WELL UNDER 10
MPH...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

RETURN FLOW ON THURSDAY BRINGS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST IN ACROSS AREAS WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER WHERE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LITTLE TO NO
SNOWPACK WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MIX INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.
TO THE EAST...RECENT SNOWCOVER AND WEAKER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
LIMIT WARMING BUT WILL STILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT FROM TODAY. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE AT 925 HPA IN THE EVENING
HOURS ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.  WITH ELEVATED AREAS REMAINING
SOMEWHAT MIXED...HAVE RAISED FORECAST LOWS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BUFFALO RIDGE.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WARMER DAYS AS 925 HPA TEMPS
WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.  WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...WAS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE IN WARMING NORTH
OF I-90 AND EAST OF I-29.

FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW.  TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF WHERE TO PLACE ANY POTENTIAL POPS...AS
MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED AND WAVE PLACEMENT IS SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT.  FOR NOW...FOCUSED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO WHERE THE MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS IN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND NAM.  THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST....TRACKING
CLOSER TO A KHON-KFSD-KSLB LINE.  PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO QUITE
TRICKY...BUT GIVEN TIMING THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL
MAINLY BE SNOW.

ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED WAVE DROPS DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
SUNDAY.  MODELS INDICATE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND BOTH WAVES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS IN
QUESTION.  HAVE A 5 DEGREE C SPREAD IN THE 925 HPA TEMPS ON
SUNDAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO SUPER BLEND
GUIDANCE OVER THE WEEKEND.

MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH 925 HPA TEMPS CLIMBING TO + 10 C OR MORE...HAVE SIDED TOWARDS
THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LIMITED SNOW PACK EXPECTED BY THEN.
STUCK CLOSER TO GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY AS FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE
STARTS TO TAKE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY FLAVOR.  WITH THE EASTERLY
COMPONENT...THE MIXING POTENTIAL DECREASES SOME ALONG WITH THE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

ANY LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS EAST OF A KHON TO KFSD TO KSLB LINE
WILL DISSIPATE SOON AFTER 00Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WITH DEEP ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WEAK FLOW
TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AT LOWER LEVELS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KFSD AND
KSUX...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHALLOW ICE
FOG...PERHAPS DUE TO MAN MADE INFLUENCES...BY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN



000
FXUS63 KFSD 042152
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
352 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE LAST BITTERLY COLD NIGHT FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT BEFORE THE WARMING TREND FINALLY ARRIVES. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...MOVING OVERHEAD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP BELOW 10 MPH THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER. WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER
SUNSET...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID TEENS
BELOW ZERO IN EAST CENTRAL SD AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WIND CHILLS
DROP TO AROUND 20 TO 25 BELOW WHERE THE COLDEST AMBIENT READINGS
WILL BE FOUND...BUT GIVEN THAT WINDS WILL BE WELL UNDER 10
MPH...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

RETURN FLOW ON THURSDAY BRINGS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST IN ACROSS AREAS WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER WHERE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LITTLE TO NO
SNOWPACK WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MIX INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.
TO THE EAST...RECENT SNOWCOVER AND WEAKER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
LIMIT WARMING BUT WILL STILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT FROM TODAY. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE AT 925 HPA IN THE EVENING
HOURS ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.  WITH ELEVATED AREAS REMAINING
SOMEWHAT MIXED...HAVE RAISED FORECAST LOWS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BUFFALO RIDGE.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WARMER DAYS AS 925 HPA TEMPS
WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.  WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...WAS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE IN WARMING NORTH
OF I-90 AND EAST OF I-29.

FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW.  TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF WHERE TO PLACE ANY POTENTIAL POPS...AS
MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED AND WAVE PLACEMENT IS SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT.  FOR NOW...FOCUSED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO WHERE THE MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS IN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND NAM.  THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST....TRACKING
CLOSER TO A KHON-KFSD-KSLB LINE.  PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO QUITE
TRICKY...BUT GIVEN TIMING THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL
MAINLY BE SNOW.

ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED WAVE DROPS DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
SUNDAY.  MODELS INDICATE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND BOTH WAVES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS IN
QUESTION.  HAVE A 5 DEGREE C SPREAD IN THE 925 HPA TEMPS ON
SUNDAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO SUPER BLEND
GUIDANCE OVER THE WEEKEND.

MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH 925 HPA TEMPS CLIMBING TO + 10 C OR MORE...HAVE SIDED TOWARDS
THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LIMITED SNOW PACK EXPECTED BY THEN.
STUCK CLOSER TO GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY AS FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE
STARTS TO TAKE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY FLAVOR.  WITH THE EASTERLY
COMPONENT...THE MIXING POTENTIAL DECREASES SOME ALONG WITH THE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SCATTERED CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FEET ARE PUSHING INTO THE
AREA...ACCOMPANYING COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WHILE
CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME BROKEN...PREVAILING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR. SKIES CLEAR AROUND SUNSET AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 042152
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
352 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE LAST BITTERLY COLD NIGHT FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT BEFORE THE WARMING TREND FINALLY ARRIVES. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...MOVING OVERHEAD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP BELOW 10 MPH THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER. WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER
SUNSET...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID TEENS
BELOW ZERO IN EAST CENTRAL SD AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WIND CHILLS
DROP TO AROUND 20 TO 25 BELOW WHERE THE COLDEST AMBIENT READINGS
WILL BE FOUND...BUT GIVEN THAT WINDS WILL BE WELL UNDER 10
MPH...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

RETURN FLOW ON THURSDAY BRINGS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST IN ACROSS AREAS WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER WHERE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LITTLE TO NO
SNOWPACK WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MIX INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.
TO THE EAST...RECENT SNOWCOVER AND WEAKER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
LIMIT WARMING BUT WILL STILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT FROM TODAY. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE AT 925 HPA IN THE EVENING
HOURS ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.  WITH ELEVATED AREAS REMAINING
SOMEWHAT MIXED...HAVE RAISED FORECAST LOWS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BUFFALO RIDGE.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WARMER DAYS AS 925 HPA TEMPS
WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.  WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...WAS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE IN WARMING NORTH
OF I-90 AND EAST OF I-29.

FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW.  TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF WHERE TO PLACE ANY POTENTIAL POPS...AS
MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED AND WAVE PLACEMENT IS SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT.  FOR NOW...FOCUSED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO WHERE THE MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS IN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND NAM.  THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST....TRACKING
CLOSER TO A KHON-KFSD-KSLB LINE.  PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO QUITE
TRICKY...BUT GIVEN TIMING THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL
MAINLY BE SNOW.

ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED WAVE DROPS DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
SUNDAY.  MODELS INDICATE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND BOTH WAVES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS IN
QUESTION.  HAVE A 5 DEGREE C SPREAD IN THE 925 HPA TEMPS ON
SUNDAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO SUPER BLEND
GUIDANCE OVER THE WEEKEND.

MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH 925 HPA TEMPS CLIMBING TO + 10 C OR MORE...HAVE SIDED TOWARDS
THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LIMITED SNOW PACK EXPECTED BY THEN.
STUCK CLOSER TO GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY AS FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE
STARTS TO TAKE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY FLAVOR.  WITH THE EASTERLY
COMPONENT...THE MIXING POTENTIAL DECREASES SOME ALONG WITH THE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SCATTERED CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FEET ARE PUSHING INTO THE
AREA...ACCOMPANYING COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WHILE
CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME BROKEN...PREVAILING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR. SKIES CLEAR AROUND SUNSET AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 042152
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
352 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE LAST BITTERLY COLD NIGHT FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT BEFORE THE WARMING TREND FINALLY ARRIVES. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...MOVING OVERHEAD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP BELOW 10 MPH THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER. WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER
SUNSET...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID TEENS
BELOW ZERO IN EAST CENTRAL SD AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WIND CHILLS
DROP TO AROUND 20 TO 25 BELOW WHERE THE COLDEST AMBIENT READINGS
WILL BE FOUND...BUT GIVEN THAT WINDS WILL BE WELL UNDER 10
MPH...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

RETURN FLOW ON THURSDAY BRINGS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST IN ACROSS AREAS WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER WHERE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LITTLE TO NO
SNOWPACK WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MIX INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.
TO THE EAST...RECENT SNOWCOVER AND WEAKER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
LIMIT WARMING BUT WILL STILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT FROM TODAY. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE AT 925 HPA IN THE EVENING
HOURS ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.  WITH ELEVATED AREAS REMAINING
SOMEWHAT MIXED...HAVE RAISED FORECAST LOWS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BUFFALO RIDGE.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WARMER DAYS AS 925 HPA TEMPS
WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.  WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...WAS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE IN WARMING NORTH
OF I-90 AND EAST OF I-29.

FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW.  TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF WHERE TO PLACE ANY POTENTIAL POPS...AS
MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED AND WAVE PLACEMENT IS SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT.  FOR NOW...FOCUSED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO WHERE THE MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS IN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND NAM.  THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST....TRACKING
CLOSER TO A KHON-KFSD-KSLB LINE.  PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO QUITE
TRICKY...BUT GIVEN TIMING THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL
MAINLY BE SNOW.

ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED WAVE DROPS DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
SUNDAY.  MODELS INDICATE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND BOTH WAVES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS IN
QUESTION.  HAVE A 5 DEGREE C SPREAD IN THE 925 HPA TEMPS ON
SUNDAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO SUPER BLEND
GUIDANCE OVER THE WEEKEND.

MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH 925 HPA TEMPS CLIMBING TO + 10 C OR MORE...HAVE SIDED TOWARDS
THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LIMITED SNOW PACK EXPECTED BY THEN.
STUCK CLOSER TO GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY AS FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE
STARTS TO TAKE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY FLAVOR.  WITH THE EASTERLY
COMPONENT...THE MIXING POTENTIAL DECREASES SOME ALONG WITH THE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SCATTERED CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FEET ARE PUSHING INTO THE
AREA...ACCOMPANYING COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WHILE
CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME BROKEN...PREVAILING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR. SKIES CLEAR AROUND SUNSET AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KUNR 042102
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
202 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG 180KT JET AT 300MB OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
PLACES THE CWA IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION...PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NE WYOMING. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAVE HELPED TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER WESTERN SD...AND WHILE THERE ARE WEAK
RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUMULUS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO A WIDE T/TD SPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TODAY. STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND WAA WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MAY
STEADILY RISE OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD
DUE TO THE WSW FLOW AND STRONG WAA. IN FACT...700MB AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS AND 20S FOR
THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015


MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE
DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
AROUND 00Z.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 042102
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
202 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG 180KT JET AT 300MB OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
PLACES THE CWA IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION...PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NE WYOMING. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAVE HELPED TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER WESTERN SD...AND WHILE THERE ARE WEAK
RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUMULUS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO A WIDE T/TD SPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TODAY. STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND WAA WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MAY
STEADILY RISE OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD
DUE TO THE WSW FLOW AND STRONG WAA. IN FACT...700MB AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS AND 20S FOR
THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015


MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE
DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
AROUND 00Z.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26






000
FXUS63 KABR 042033
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
233 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND
TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WINDS
WILL ALSO FALL OFF. THEREFORE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH A WIND CHILL
HEADLINE EVEN THOUGH APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN -25 AND -35
ACROSS THE EAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THU
MORNING RETURN FLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN. STILL A MAJOR SPREAD IN AMBIENT
MIX DOWN TEMPS IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS COOLER BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT TEMPS TRENDED MORE TOWARD
THE GFS OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND A WARMER FORECAST WHERE THERE
IS BARE GROUND.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CLIP THE
DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH THIS
EVENT...ESPECIALLY FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND
MODEL DIFFERENCES KEPT THE PRECIP MENTION AS ALL SNOW.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TREND FOR FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAINS
IN TACT WITH MILD AIR ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES THAT PASS THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW BUT
BUFKIT PROFILES ONLY BRIEFLY SUGGEST SATURATION AND LIFT...WITH
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION. ON THE FLIP SIDE...WARMEST
DAYS WILL BE MONDAY/TUESDAY THANKS TO WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO
ABOVE CLIMO.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY VFR VISBY/CIGS FOR ALL TAF SITES...THOUGH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON KATY WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR
VISBY/CIGS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BUT WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY







000
FXUS63 KABR 042033
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
233 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND
TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WINDS
WILL ALSO FALL OFF. THEREFORE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH A WIND CHILL
HEADLINE EVEN THOUGH APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN -25 AND -35
ACROSS THE EAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THU
MORNING RETURN FLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN. STILL A MAJOR SPREAD IN AMBIENT
MIX DOWN TEMPS IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS COOLER BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT TEMPS TRENDED MORE TOWARD
THE GFS OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND A WARMER FORECAST WHERE THERE
IS BARE GROUND.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CLIP THE
DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH THIS
EVENT...ESPECIALLY FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND
MODEL DIFFERENCES KEPT THE PRECIP MENTION AS ALL SNOW.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TREND FOR FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAINS
IN TACT WITH MILD AIR ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES THAT PASS THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW BUT
BUFKIT PROFILES ONLY BRIEFLY SUGGEST SATURATION AND LIFT...WITH
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION. ON THE FLIP SIDE...WARMEST
DAYS WILL BE MONDAY/TUESDAY THANKS TO WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO
ABOVE CLIMO.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY VFR VISBY/CIGS FOR ALL TAF SITES...THOUGH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON KATY WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR
VISBY/CIGS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BUT WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY







000
FXUS63 KABR 042033
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
233 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND
TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WINDS
WILL ALSO FALL OFF. THEREFORE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH A WIND CHILL
HEADLINE EVEN THOUGH APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN -25 AND -35
ACROSS THE EAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THU
MORNING RETURN FLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN. STILL A MAJOR SPREAD IN AMBIENT
MIX DOWN TEMPS IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS COOLER BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT TEMPS TRENDED MORE TOWARD
THE GFS OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND A WARMER FORECAST WHERE THERE
IS BARE GROUND.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CLIP THE
DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH THIS
EVENT...ESPECIALLY FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND
MODEL DIFFERENCES KEPT THE PRECIP MENTION AS ALL SNOW.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TREND FOR FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAINS
IN TACT WITH MILD AIR ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES THAT PASS THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW BUT
BUFKIT PROFILES ONLY BRIEFLY SUGGEST SATURATION AND LIFT...WITH
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION. ON THE FLIP SIDE...WARMEST
DAYS WILL BE MONDAY/TUESDAY THANKS TO WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO
ABOVE CLIMO.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY VFR VISBY/CIGS FOR ALL TAF SITES...THOUGH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON KATY WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR
VISBY/CIGS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BUT WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY







000
FXUS63 KABR 042033
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
233 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND
TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WINDS
WILL ALSO FALL OFF. THEREFORE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH A WIND CHILL
HEADLINE EVEN THOUGH APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN -25 AND -35
ACROSS THE EAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THU
MORNING RETURN FLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN. STILL A MAJOR SPREAD IN AMBIENT
MIX DOWN TEMPS IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS COOLER BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT TEMPS TRENDED MORE TOWARD
THE GFS OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND A WARMER FORECAST WHERE THERE
IS BARE GROUND.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CLIP THE
DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH THIS
EVENT...ESPECIALLY FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND
MODEL DIFFERENCES KEPT THE PRECIP MENTION AS ALL SNOW.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TREND FOR FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAINS
IN TACT WITH MILD AIR ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES THAT PASS THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW BUT
BUFKIT PROFILES ONLY BRIEFLY SUGGEST SATURATION AND LIFT...WITH
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION. ON THE FLIP SIDE...WARMEST
DAYS WILL BE MONDAY/TUESDAY THANKS TO WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO
ABOVE CLIMO.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY VFR VISBY/CIGS FOR ALL TAF SITES...THOUGH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON KATY WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR
VISBY/CIGS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BUT WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY







000
FXUS63 KABR 042033
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
233 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND
TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WINDS
WILL ALSO FALL OFF. THEREFORE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH A WIND CHILL
HEADLINE EVEN THOUGH APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN -25 AND -35
ACROSS THE EAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THU
MORNING RETURN FLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN. STILL A MAJOR SPREAD IN AMBIENT
MIX DOWN TEMPS IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS COOLER BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT TEMPS TRENDED MORE TOWARD
THE GFS OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND A WARMER FORECAST WHERE THERE
IS BARE GROUND.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CLIP THE
DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH THIS
EVENT...ESPECIALLY FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND
MODEL DIFFERENCES KEPT THE PRECIP MENTION AS ALL SNOW.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TREND FOR FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAINS
IN TACT WITH MILD AIR ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES THAT PASS THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW BUT
BUFKIT PROFILES ONLY BRIEFLY SUGGEST SATURATION AND LIFT...WITH
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION. ON THE FLIP SIDE...WARMEST
DAYS WILL BE MONDAY/TUESDAY THANKS TO WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO
ABOVE CLIMO.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY VFR VISBY/CIGS FOR ALL TAF SITES...THOUGH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON KATY WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR
VISBY/CIGS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BUT WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY







000
FXUS63 KABR 042033
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
233 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND
TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WINDS
WILL ALSO FALL OFF. THEREFORE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH A WIND CHILL
HEADLINE EVEN THOUGH APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN -25 AND -35
ACROSS THE EAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THU
MORNING RETURN FLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN. STILL A MAJOR SPREAD IN AMBIENT
MIX DOWN TEMPS IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS COOLER BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT TEMPS TRENDED MORE TOWARD
THE GFS OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND A WARMER FORECAST WHERE THERE
IS BARE GROUND.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CLIP THE
DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH THIS
EVENT...ESPECIALLY FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND
MODEL DIFFERENCES KEPT THE PRECIP MENTION AS ALL SNOW.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TREND FOR FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAINS
IN TACT WITH MILD AIR ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES THAT PASS THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW BUT
BUFKIT PROFILES ONLY BRIEFLY SUGGEST SATURATION AND LIFT...WITH
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION. ON THE FLIP SIDE...WARMEST
DAYS WILL BE MONDAY/TUESDAY THANKS TO WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO
ABOVE CLIMO.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY VFR VISBY/CIGS FOR ALL TAF SITES...THOUGH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON KATY WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR
VISBY/CIGS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BUT WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities