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000
FXUS63 KUNR 200802
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
202 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A WAVE DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR. TEMPS ARE IN
AND AROUND THE 40S.

UPPER RIDGE WILL MAKE FOR A DRY AND MILD BEGINNING TO THE WEEK WITH
SUNNY SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY. SLIGHTLY
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT IN WARM AIR...RESULTING IN ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON TUESDAY...CAUSING BREEZIER WINDS AND
MORE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. BREEZY OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPPER TROF CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE
SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID DAY. UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 200802
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
202 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A WAVE DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR. TEMPS ARE IN
AND AROUND THE 40S.

UPPER RIDGE WILL MAKE FOR A DRY AND MILD BEGINNING TO THE WEEK WITH
SUNNY SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY. SLIGHTLY
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT IN WARM AIR...RESULTING IN ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON TUESDAY...CAUSING BREEZIER WINDS AND
MORE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. BREEZY OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPPER TROF CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE
SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID DAY. UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7





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000
FXUS63 KABR 200525 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1225 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 200525 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1225 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KUNR 200455
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1055 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A DOMINATE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL SIT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS...KEEPING DRY WEATHER AND HARDLY EVEN A CLOUD
IN THE SKY. RETURN FLOW CONTINUES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
MONDAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S. S/SELY WINDS AT 10-15KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN SD
PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT RETURNING. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD...VERY WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER TROF THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 200455
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1055 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A DOMINATE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL SIT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS...KEEPING DRY WEATHER AND HARDLY EVEN A CLOUD
IN THE SKY. RETURN FLOW CONTINUES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
MONDAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S. S/SELY WINDS AT 10-15KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN SD
PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT RETURNING. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD...VERY WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER TROF THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KFSD 200348
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1048 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY BISECTING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT WITH WINDS DYING
OFF IN A LESSENING GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. IN LIGHT OF THAT...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
IN OUR EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA...RANGING UPWARDS TO THE LOWER 70S

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND DRY
AIR...SO EXPECTING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND WINDY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND A MINOR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A BAND OF RAINFALL TO MOVE THROUGH SO UPPED POPS A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LEFT SOME LOWER POPS IN ON THURSDAY OVER MAINLY
NORTHWEST IOWA. DID RAISE HIGHS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY THINKING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO MOVE IN TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
HEATING.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MILD AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE. STRONG TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL AID IN
KEEPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A TROUGH COULD SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE SO WILL
WAIT TO SEE WHAT COMES OF THIS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS MAINLY 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE 06Z TAFS WILL REFLECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 200348
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1048 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY BISECTING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT WITH WINDS DYING
OFF IN A LESSENING GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. IN LIGHT OF THAT...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
IN OUR EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA...RANGING UPWARDS TO THE LOWER 70S

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND DRY
AIR...SO EXPECTING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND WINDY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND A MINOR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A BAND OF RAINFALL TO MOVE THROUGH SO UPPED POPS A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LEFT SOME LOWER POPS IN ON THURSDAY OVER MAINLY
NORTHWEST IOWA. DID RAISE HIGHS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY THINKING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO MOVE IN TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
HEATING.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MILD AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE. STRONG TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL AID IN
KEEPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A TROUGH COULD SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE SO WILL
WAIT TO SEE WHAT COMES OF THIS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS MAINLY 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE 06Z TAFS WILL REFLECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KABR 200205 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
905 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED. GOING FORECAST OF CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND HIGH PRESSURE IS ON TRACK.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 200205 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
905 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED. GOING FORECAST OF CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND HIGH PRESSURE IS ON TRACK.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 200205 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
905 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED. GOING FORECAST OF CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND HIGH PRESSURE IS ON TRACK.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 200205 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
905 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED. GOING FORECAST OF CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND HIGH PRESSURE IS ON TRACK.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 192333
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
533 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A DOMINATE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL SIT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS...KEEPING DRY WEATHER AND HARDLY EVEN A CLOUD
IN THE SKY. RETURN FLOW CONTINUES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
MONDAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S. S/SELY WINDS AT 10-15KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN SD
PLAINS.


&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT RETURNING. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD...VERY WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER TROF THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 192333
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
533 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A DOMINATE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL SIT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS...KEEPING DRY WEATHER AND HARDLY EVEN A CLOUD
IN THE SKY. RETURN FLOW CONTINUES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
MONDAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S. S/SELY WINDS AT 10-15KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN SD
PLAINS.


&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT RETURNING. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD...VERY WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER TROF THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 192333
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
533 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A DOMINATE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL SIT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS...KEEPING DRY WEATHER AND HARDLY EVEN A CLOUD
IN THE SKY. RETURN FLOW CONTINUES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
MONDAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S. S/SELY WINDS AT 10-15KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN SD
PLAINS.


&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT RETURNING. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD...VERY WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER TROF THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 192333
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
533 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A DOMINATE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL SIT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS...KEEPING DRY WEATHER AND HARDLY EVEN A CLOUD
IN THE SKY. RETURN FLOW CONTINUES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
MONDAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S. S/SELY WINDS AT 10-15KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN SD
PLAINS.


&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT RETURNING. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD...VERY WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER TROF THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 192333
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
533 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A DOMINATE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL SIT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS...KEEPING DRY WEATHER AND HARDLY EVEN A CLOUD
IN THE SKY. RETURN FLOW CONTINUES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
MONDAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S. S/SELY WINDS AT 10-15KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN SD
PLAINS.


&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT RETURNING. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD...VERY WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER TROF THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 192333
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
533 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A DOMINATE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL SIT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS...KEEPING DRY WEATHER AND HARDLY EVEN A CLOUD
IN THE SKY. RETURN FLOW CONTINUES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
MONDAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S. S/SELY WINDS AT 10-15KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN SD
PLAINS.


&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT RETURNING. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD...VERY WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER TROF THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC






000
FXUS63 KABR 192324 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 192324 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 192324 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 192324 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 192324 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 192324 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 192324 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 192324 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 192324 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 192321
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY BISECTING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT WITH WINDS DYING
OFF IN A LESSENING GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. IN LIGHT OF THAT...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
IN OUR EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA...RANGING UPWARDS TO THE LOWER 70S

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND DRY
AIR...SO EXPECTING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND WINDY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND A MINOR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A BAND OF RAINFALL TO MOVE THROUGH SO UPPED POPS A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LEFT SOME LOWER POPS IN ON THURSDAY OVER MAINLY
NORTHWEST IOWA. DID RAISE HIGHS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY THINKING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO MOVE IN TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
HEATING.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MILD AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE. STRONG TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL AID IN
KEEPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A TROUGH COULD SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE SO WILL
WAIT TO SEE WHAT COMES OF THIS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS MAINLY 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KFSD 192321
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY BISECTING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT WITH WINDS DYING
OFF IN A LESSENING GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. IN LIGHT OF THAT...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
IN OUR EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA...RANGING UPWARDS TO THE LOWER 70S

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND DRY
AIR...SO EXPECTING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND WINDY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND A MINOR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A BAND OF RAINFALL TO MOVE THROUGH SO UPPED POPS A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LEFT SOME LOWER POPS IN ON THURSDAY OVER MAINLY
NORTHWEST IOWA. DID RAISE HIGHS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY THINKING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO MOVE IN TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
HEATING.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MILD AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE. STRONG TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL AID IN
KEEPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A TROUGH COULD SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE SO WILL
WAIT TO SEE WHAT COMES OF THIS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS MAINLY 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 192321
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY BISECTING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT WITH WINDS DYING
OFF IN A LESSENING GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. IN LIGHT OF THAT...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
IN OUR EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA...RANGING UPWARDS TO THE LOWER 70S

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND DRY
AIR...SO EXPECTING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND WINDY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND A MINOR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A BAND OF RAINFALL TO MOVE THROUGH SO UPPED POPS A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LEFT SOME LOWER POPS IN ON THURSDAY OVER MAINLY
NORTHWEST IOWA. DID RAISE HIGHS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY THINKING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO MOVE IN TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
HEATING.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MILD AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE. STRONG TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL AID IN
KEEPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A TROUGH COULD SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE SO WILL
WAIT TO SEE WHAT COMES OF THIS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS MAINLY 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KFSD 192321
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY BISECTING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT WITH WINDS DYING
OFF IN A LESSENING GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. IN LIGHT OF THAT...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
IN OUR EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA...RANGING UPWARDS TO THE LOWER 70S

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND DRY
AIR...SO EXPECTING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND WINDY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND A MINOR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A BAND OF RAINFALL TO MOVE THROUGH SO UPPED POPS A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LEFT SOME LOWER POPS IN ON THURSDAY OVER MAINLY
NORTHWEST IOWA. DID RAISE HIGHS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY THINKING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO MOVE IN TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
HEATING.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MILD AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE. STRONG TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL AID IN
KEEPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A TROUGH COULD SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE SO WILL
WAIT TO SEE WHAT COMES OF THIS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS MAINLY 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KFSD 192321
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY BISECTING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT WITH WINDS DYING
OFF IN A LESSENING GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. IN LIGHT OF THAT...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
IN OUR EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA...RANGING UPWARDS TO THE LOWER 70S

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND DRY
AIR...SO EXPECTING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND WINDY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND A MINOR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A BAND OF RAINFALL TO MOVE THROUGH SO UPPED POPS A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LEFT SOME LOWER POPS IN ON THURSDAY OVER MAINLY
NORTHWEST IOWA. DID RAISE HIGHS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY THINKING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO MOVE IN TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
HEATING.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MILD AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE. STRONG TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL AID IN
KEEPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A TROUGH COULD SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE SO WILL
WAIT TO SEE WHAT COMES OF THIS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS MAINLY 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KFSD 192321
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY BISECTING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT WITH WINDS DYING
OFF IN A LESSENING GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. IN LIGHT OF THAT...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
IN OUR EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA...RANGING UPWARDS TO THE LOWER 70S

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND DRY
AIR...SO EXPECTING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND WINDY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND A MINOR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A BAND OF RAINFALL TO MOVE THROUGH SO UPPED POPS A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LEFT SOME LOWER POPS IN ON THURSDAY OVER MAINLY
NORTHWEST IOWA. DID RAISE HIGHS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY THINKING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO MOVE IN TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
HEATING.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MILD AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE. STRONG TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL AID IN
KEEPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A TROUGH COULD SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE SO WILL
WAIT TO SEE WHAT COMES OF THIS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS MAINLY 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KUNR 192015
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
215 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A DOMINATE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL SIT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS...KEEPING DRY WEATHER AND HARDLY EVEN A CLOUD
IN THE SKY. RETURN FLOW CONTINUES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
MONDAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S. S/SELY WINDS AT 10-15KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN SD
PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT RETURNING. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD...VERY WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER TROF THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 192015
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
215 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A DOMINATE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL SIT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS...KEEPING DRY WEATHER AND HARDLY EVEN A CLOUD
IN THE SKY. RETURN FLOW CONTINUES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
MONDAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S. S/SELY WINDS AT 10-15KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN SD
PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT RETURNING. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD...VERY WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER TROF THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 192015
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
215 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A DOMINATE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL SIT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS...KEEPING DRY WEATHER AND HARDLY EVEN A CLOUD
IN THE SKY. RETURN FLOW CONTINUES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
MONDAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S. S/SELY WINDS AT 10-15KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN SD
PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT RETURNING. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD...VERY WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER TROF THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 192015
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
215 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A DOMINATE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL SIT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS...KEEPING DRY WEATHER AND HARDLY EVEN A CLOUD
IN THE SKY. RETURN FLOW CONTINUES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
MONDAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S. S/SELY WINDS AT 10-15KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN SD
PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT RETURNING. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD...VERY WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER TROF THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON






000
FXUS63 KFSD 192012
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
312 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY BISECTING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT WITH WINDS DYING
OFF IN A LESSENING GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. IN LIGHT OF THAT...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
IN OUR EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA...RANGING UPWARDS TO THE LOWER 70S
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND DRY
AIR...SO EXPECTING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND WINDY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND A MINOR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A BAND OF RAINFALL TO MOVE THROUGH SO UPPED POPS A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LEFT SOME LOWER POPS IN ON THURSDAY OVER MAINLY
NORTHWEST IOWA. DID RAISE HIGHS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY THINKING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO MOVE IN TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
HEATING.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MILD AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE. STRONG TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL AID IN
KEEPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A TROUGH COULD SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE SO WILL
WAIT TO SEE WHAT COMES OF THIS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS MAINLY 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM



000
FXUS63 KFSD 192012
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
312 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY BISECTING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT WITH WINDS DYING
OFF IN A LESSENING GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. IN LIGHT OF THAT...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
IN OUR EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA...RANGING UPWARDS TO THE LOWER 70S
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND DRY
AIR...SO EXPECTING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND WINDY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND A MINOR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A BAND OF RAINFALL TO MOVE THROUGH SO UPPED POPS A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LEFT SOME LOWER POPS IN ON THURSDAY OVER MAINLY
NORTHWEST IOWA. DID RAISE HIGHS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY THINKING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO MOVE IN TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
HEATING.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MILD AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE. STRONG TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL AID IN
KEEPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A TROUGH COULD SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE SO WILL
WAIT TO SEE WHAT COMES OF THIS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS MAINLY 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KABR 191941
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
241 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 191941
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
241 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 191724 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
STILL EXPECTING AN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS
CELSIUS TODAY AND DECENT MIXING...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. SFC HIGH SETTLES IN TONIGHT PROVIDING
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS IS RATHER MILD...THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND LONGER
GROWING NIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL. LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY...BASICALLY LEANING
ON THE COOLEST GUIDANCE VALUES. MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO DROP A DEGREE
OR TWO MORE IN SOME SPOTS. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE AN INTERESTING DAY
AS VERY MILD 850 MB TEMPS SURGE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY/GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR GOOD MIXING. INCREASED HIGHS EVEN MORE AS
THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY MILD DAY. WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH VALUES.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE...KEEPING BREEZY
CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA. AS THE
TROUGH/FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN
THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD STAYING DRY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 191724 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
STILL EXPECTING AN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS
CELSIUS TODAY AND DECENT MIXING...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. SFC HIGH SETTLES IN TONIGHT PROVIDING
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS IS RATHER MILD...THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND LONGER
GROWING NIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL. LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY...BASICALLY LEANING
ON THE COOLEST GUIDANCE VALUES. MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO DROP A DEGREE
OR TWO MORE IN SOME SPOTS. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE AN INTERESTING DAY
AS VERY MILD 850 MB TEMPS SURGE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY/GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR GOOD MIXING. INCREASED HIGHS EVEN MORE AS
THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY MILD DAY. WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH VALUES.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE...KEEPING BREEZY
CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA. AS THE
TROUGH/FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN
THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD STAYING DRY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 191706
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1206 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VERY PLEASANT FALL WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE REGION TODAY. SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER BREEZY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF. THE LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILE RADAR DATA IS SHOWING MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST OFF THE SURFACE AT AROUND 25 TO 40 KT AROUND 2000
FEET AGL. EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO REACH THE SURFACE IN OUR HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE THE CROSS BARRIER WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DROPPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID
MORNING AND EXIT MID EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND TURN
NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH SEASONALLY WARM LOW AND
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE DAY...HIGHS WILL WARM NICELY TODAY. CONTINUED THE
TREND OF A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGHS. NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STEAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5
MPH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL QUITE A BIT DESPITE THE AIRMASS NOT
BEING PARTICULARLY COLD. DID LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM ON
RECENT CLEAR AND CALM NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AIR SHOULD BE DRY AND SKIES CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S EAST TO THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST. THE GRADIENT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY SHARPEN A BIT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY
WITH WARMING DURING THE PERIOD BUT A STRENGTHENING INVERSION IN
THE EAST. IN ANY EVENT IT WILL BE WARM FOR THE TIME OF FALL.

SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TUESDAY. THE QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH...BUT IT SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS.

SHOWER THREAT FROM WAVE COMING ACROSS ROCKIES RIDGE...AND
TEMPORARILY DAMPENING IT...LOOKS TO BE CENTERED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WILL SPLIT INTO 6 HOUR PERIODS AND CUT BACK
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE TOO MUCH RAIN
DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH FAIRLY LOUSY
THERMAL SUPPORT. INSTABILITY IS MEDIOCRE AND SEEMS TO PASS ACROSS
AHEAD OF THE MOISTURE FETCH SO WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT.

AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...THO ROCKIES RIDGE REFORMS AND BUILDS
EAST...SO WE GO BACK TO DRY AND MILD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRE DANGER MODERATE AT
WORST TODAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER SOUTHERLY INCREASING WINDS
TUESDAY WITH THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER MAY LEAD TO A VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AM MAKING APPROPRIATE
ADJUSTMENTS. THIS WILL SHOW UP IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS63 KUNR 191700
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1100 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 201 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE...PUSHING SOME CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. AXIS OF
SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY THROUGH WESTERN SD. WINDS ARE EITHER
CALM OR LIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY...SHIFTING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO
THE REGION TODAY...AND SKIES WILL BE SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW
70S...60S IN THE BLACK HILLS. RETURN FLOW SETS UP AGAIN MONDAY AS
HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA...CREATING SOMEWHAT BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND ADVECTING IN MORE WARM AIR. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S UNDER CLEAR SKIES. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.


&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 201 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. BL-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 80...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. UPPER TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY WILL BE
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KABR 191513 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1013 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
STILL EXPECTING AN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS
CELSIUS TODAY AND DECENT MIXING...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. SFC HIGH SETTLES IN TONIGHT PROVIDING
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS IS RATHER MILD...THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND LONGER
GROWING NIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL. LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY...BASICALLY LEANING
ON THE COOLEST GUIDANCE VALUES. MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO DROP A DEGREE
OR TWO MORE IN SOME SPOTS. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE AN INTERESTING DAY
AS VERY MILD 850 MB TEMPS SURGE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY/GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR GOOD MIXING. INCREASED HIGHS EVEN MORE AS
THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY MILD DAY. WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH VALUES.




.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE...KEEPING BREEZY
CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA. AS THE
TROUGH/FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN
THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD STAYING DRY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 191513 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1013 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
STILL EXPECTING AN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS
CELSIUS TODAY AND DECENT MIXING...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. SFC HIGH SETTLES IN TONIGHT PROVIDING
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS IS RATHER MILD...THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND LONGER
GROWING NIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL. LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY...BASICALLY LEANING
ON THE COOLEST GUIDANCE VALUES. MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO DROP A DEGREE
OR TWO MORE IN SOME SPOTS. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE AN INTERESTING DAY
AS VERY MILD 850 MB TEMPS SURGE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY/GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR GOOD MIXING. INCREASED HIGHS EVEN MORE AS
THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY MILD DAY. WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH VALUES.




.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE...KEEPING BREEZY
CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA. AS THE
TROUGH/FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN
THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD STAYING DRY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 191513 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1013 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
STILL EXPECTING AN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS
CELSIUS TODAY AND DECENT MIXING...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. SFC HIGH SETTLES IN TONIGHT PROVIDING
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS IS RATHER MILD...THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND LONGER
GROWING NIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL. LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY...BASICALLY LEANING
ON THE COOLEST GUIDANCE VALUES. MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO DROP A DEGREE
OR TWO MORE IN SOME SPOTS. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE AN INTERESTING DAY
AS VERY MILD 850 MB TEMPS SURGE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY/GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR GOOD MIXING. INCREASED HIGHS EVEN MORE AS
THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY MILD DAY. WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH VALUES.




.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE...KEEPING BREEZY
CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA. AS THE
TROUGH/FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN
THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD STAYING DRY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 191513 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1013 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
STILL EXPECTING AN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS
CELSIUS TODAY AND DECENT MIXING...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. SFC HIGH SETTLES IN TONIGHT PROVIDING
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS IS RATHER MILD...THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND LONGER
GROWING NIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL. LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY...BASICALLY LEANING
ON THE COOLEST GUIDANCE VALUES. MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO DROP A DEGREE
OR TWO MORE IN SOME SPOTS. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE AN INTERESTING DAY
AS VERY MILD 850 MB TEMPS SURGE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY/GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR GOOD MIXING. INCREASED HIGHS EVEN MORE AS
THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY MILD DAY. WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH VALUES.




.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE...KEEPING BREEZY
CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA. AS THE
TROUGH/FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN
THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD STAYING DRY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 191123 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
623 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS
CELSIUS TODAY AND DECENT MIXING...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. SFC HIGH SETTLES IN TONIGHT PROVIDING
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS IS RATHER MILD...THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND LONGER
GROWING NIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL. LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY...BASICALLY LEANING
ON THE COOLEST GUIDANCE VALUES. MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO DROP A DEGREE
OR TWO MORE IN SOME SPOTS. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE AN INTERESTING DAY
AS VERY MILD 850 MB TEMPS SURGE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY/GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR GOOD MIXING. INCREASED HIGHS EVEN MORE AS
THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY MILD DAY. WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH VALUES.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE...KEEPING BREEZY
CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA. AS THE
TROUGH/FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN
THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD STAYING DRY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 191123 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
623 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS
CELSIUS TODAY AND DECENT MIXING...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. SFC HIGH SETTLES IN TONIGHT PROVIDING
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS IS RATHER MILD...THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND LONGER
GROWING NIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL. LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY...BASICALLY LEANING
ON THE COOLEST GUIDANCE VALUES. MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO DROP A DEGREE
OR TWO MORE IN SOME SPOTS. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE AN INTERESTING DAY
AS VERY MILD 850 MB TEMPS SURGE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY/GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR GOOD MIXING. INCREASED HIGHS EVEN MORE AS
THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY MILD DAY. WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH VALUES.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE...KEEPING BREEZY
CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA. AS THE
TROUGH/FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN
THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD STAYING DRY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 191101
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
601 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VERY PLEASANT FALL WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE REGION TODAY. SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER BREEZY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF. THE LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILE RADAR DATA IS SHOWING MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST OFF THE SURFACE AT AROUND 25 TO 40 KT AROUND 2000
FEET AGL. EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO REACH THE SURFACE IN OUR HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE THE CROSS BARRIER WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DROPPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID
MORNING AND EXIT MID EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND TURN
NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH SEASONALLY WARM LOW AND
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE DAY...HIGHS WILL WARM NICELY TODAY. CONTINUED THE
TREND OF A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGHS. NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STEAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5
MPH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL QUITE A BIT DESPITE THE AIRMASS NOT
BEING PARTICULARLY COLD. DID LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM ON
RECENT CLEAR AND CALM NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AIR SHOULD BE DRY AND SKIES CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S EAST TO THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST. THE GRADIENT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY SHARPEN A BIT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY
WITH WARMING DURING THE PERIOD BUT A STRENGTHENING INVERSION IN
THE EAST. IN ANY EVENT IT WILL BE WARM FOR THE TIME OF FALL.

SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TUESDAY. THE QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH...BUT IT SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS.

SHOWER THREAT FROM WAVE COMING ACROSS ROCKIES RIDGE...AND
TEMPORARILY DAMPENING IT...LOOKS TO BE CENTERED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WILL SPLIT INTO 6 HOUR PERIODS AND CUT BACK
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE TOO MUCH RAIN
DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH FAIRLY LOUSY
THERMAL SUPPORT. INSTABILITY IS MEDIOCRE AND SEEMS TO PASS ACROSS
AHEAD OF THE MOISTURE FETCH SO WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT.

AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...THO ROCKIES RIDGE REFORMS AND BUILDS
EAST...SO WE GO BACK TO DRY AND MILD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR DETECTED
WIND VELOCITY INDICATES THAT NEAR SURFACE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
AROUND 40 OR 45 KT AT AROUND 1200 TO 2000 FT AGL FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...MAINLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WILL CONTINUE WITH
MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH AROUND 15Z. WINDS WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A BOUNDARY SAGS
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST BUT WILL BE LESS THAN
10 KT AFTER 23Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRE DANGER MODERATE AT
WORST TODAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER SOUTHERLY INCREASING WINDS
TUESDAY WITH THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER MAY LEAD TO A VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AM MAKING APPROPRIATE
ADJUSTMENTS. THIS WILL SHOW UP IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 191101
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
601 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VERY PLEASANT FALL WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE REGION TODAY. SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER BREEZY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF. THE LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILE RADAR DATA IS SHOWING MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST OFF THE SURFACE AT AROUND 25 TO 40 KT AROUND 2000
FEET AGL. EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO REACH THE SURFACE IN OUR HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE THE CROSS BARRIER WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DROPPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID
MORNING AND EXIT MID EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND TURN
NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH SEASONALLY WARM LOW AND
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE DAY...HIGHS WILL WARM NICELY TODAY. CONTINUED THE
TREND OF A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGHS. NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STEAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5
MPH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL QUITE A BIT DESPITE THE AIRMASS NOT
BEING PARTICULARLY COLD. DID LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM ON
RECENT CLEAR AND CALM NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AIR SHOULD BE DRY AND SKIES CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S EAST TO THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST. THE GRADIENT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY SHARPEN A BIT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY
WITH WARMING DURING THE PERIOD BUT A STRENGTHENING INVERSION IN
THE EAST. IN ANY EVENT IT WILL BE WARM FOR THE TIME OF FALL.

SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TUESDAY. THE QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH...BUT IT SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS.

SHOWER THREAT FROM WAVE COMING ACROSS ROCKIES RIDGE...AND
TEMPORARILY DAMPENING IT...LOOKS TO BE CENTERED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WILL SPLIT INTO 6 HOUR PERIODS AND CUT BACK
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE TOO MUCH RAIN
DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH FAIRLY LOUSY
THERMAL SUPPORT. INSTABILITY IS MEDIOCRE AND SEEMS TO PASS ACROSS
AHEAD OF THE MOISTURE FETCH SO WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT.

AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...THO ROCKIES RIDGE REFORMS AND BUILDS
EAST...SO WE GO BACK TO DRY AND MILD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR DETECTED
WIND VELOCITY INDICATES THAT NEAR SURFACE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
AROUND 40 OR 45 KT AT AROUND 1200 TO 2000 FT AGL FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...MAINLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WILL CONTINUE WITH
MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH AROUND 15Z. WINDS WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A BOUNDARY SAGS
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST BUT WILL BE LESS THAN
10 KT AFTER 23Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRE DANGER MODERATE AT
WORST TODAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER SOUTHERLY INCREASING WINDS
TUESDAY WITH THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER MAY LEAD TO A VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AM MAKING APPROPRIATE
ADJUSTMENTS. THIS WILL SHOW UP IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 190833
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VERY PLEASANT FALL WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE REGION TODAY. SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER BREEZY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF. THE LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILE RADAR DATA IS SHOWING MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST OFF THE SURFACE AT AROUND 25 TO 40 KT AROUND 2000
FEET AGL. EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO REACH THE SURFACE IN OUR HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE THE CROSS BARRIER WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DROPPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID
MORNING AND EXIT MID EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND TURN
NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH SEASONALLY WARM LOW AND
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE DAY...HIGHS WILL WARM NICELY TODAY. CONTINUED THE
TREND OF A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGHS. NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STEAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5
MPH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL QUITE A BIT DESPITE THE AIRMASS NOT
BEING PARTICULARLY COLD. DID LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM ON
RECENT CLEAR AND CALM NIGHTS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AIR SHOULD BE DRY AND SKIES CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S EAST TO THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST. THE GRADIENT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY SHARPEN A BIT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY
WITH WARMING DURING THE PERIOD BUT A STRENGTHENING INVERSION IN
THE EAST. IN ANY EVENT IT WILL BE WARM FOR THE TIME OF FALL.

SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TUESDAY. THE QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH...BUT IT SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS.

SHOWER THREAT FROM WAVE COMING ACROSS ROCKIES RIDGE...AND
TEMPORARILY DAMPENING IT...LOOKS TO BE CENTERED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WILL SPLIT INTO 6 HOUR PERIODS AND CUT BACK
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE TOO MUCH RAIN
DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH FAIRLY LOUSY
THERMAL SUPPORT. INSTABILITY IS MEDIOCRE AND SEEMS TO PASS ACROSS
AHEAD OF THE MOISTURE FETCH SO WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT.

AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...THO ROCKIES RIDGE REFORMS AND BUILDS
EAST...SO WE GO BACK TO DRY AND MILD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST INCREASING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE...WHICH MAY CAUSE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE TAF SITES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRE DANGER MODERATE AT
WORST TODAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER SOUTHERLY INCREASING WINDS
TUESDAY WITH THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER MAY LEAD TO A VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AM MAKING APPROPRIATE
ADJUSTMENTS. THIS WILL SHOW UP IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 190833
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VERY PLEASANT FALL WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE REGION TODAY. SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER BREEZY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF. THE LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILE RADAR DATA IS SHOWING MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST OFF THE SURFACE AT AROUND 25 TO 40 KT AROUND 2000
FEET AGL. EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO REACH THE SURFACE IN OUR HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE THE CROSS BARRIER WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DROPPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID
MORNING AND EXIT MID EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND TURN
NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH SEASONALLY WARM LOW AND
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE DAY...HIGHS WILL WARM NICELY TODAY. CONTINUED THE
TREND OF A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGHS. NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STEAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5
MPH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL QUITE A BIT DESPITE THE AIRMASS NOT
BEING PARTICULARLY COLD. DID LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM ON
RECENT CLEAR AND CALM NIGHTS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AIR SHOULD BE DRY AND SKIES CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S EAST TO THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST. THE GRADIENT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY SHARPEN A BIT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY
WITH WARMING DURING THE PERIOD BUT A STRENGTHENING INVERSION IN
THE EAST. IN ANY EVENT IT WILL BE WARM FOR THE TIME OF FALL.

SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TUESDAY. THE QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH...BUT IT SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS.

SHOWER THREAT FROM WAVE COMING ACROSS ROCKIES RIDGE...AND
TEMPORARILY DAMPENING IT...LOOKS TO BE CENTERED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WILL SPLIT INTO 6 HOUR PERIODS AND CUT BACK
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE TOO MUCH RAIN
DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH FAIRLY LOUSY
THERMAL SUPPORT. INSTABILITY IS MEDIOCRE AND SEEMS TO PASS ACROSS
AHEAD OF THE MOISTURE FETCH SO WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT.

AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...THO ROCKIES RIDGE REFORMS AND BUILDS
EAST...SO WE GO BACK TO DRY AND MILD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST INCREASING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE...WHICH MAY CAUSE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE TAF SITES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRE DANGER MODERATE AT
WORST TODAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER SOUTHERLY INCREASING WINDS
TUESDAY WITH THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER MAY LEAD TO A VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AM MAKING APPROPRIATE
ADJUSTMENTS. THIS WILL SHOW UP IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS63 KABR 190831
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
331 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS
CELSIUS TODAY AND DECENT MIXING...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. SFC HIGHS SETTLES IN TONIGHT PROVIDING
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS IS RATHER MILD...THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND LONGER
GROWING NIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL. LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY...BASICALLY LEANING
ON THE COOLEST GUIDANCE VALUES. MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO DROP A DEGREE
OR TWO MORE IN SOME SPOTS. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE AN INTERESTING DAY
AS VERY MILD 850 MB TEMPS SURGE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY/GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR GOOD MIXING. INCREASED HIGHS EVEN MORE AS
THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY MILD DAY. WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH VALUES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE...KEEPING BREEZY
CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA. AS THE
TROUGH/FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN
THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD STAYING DRY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 190831
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
331 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS
CELSIUS TODAY AND DECENT MIXING...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. SFC HIGHS SETTLES IN TONIGHT PROVIDING
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS IS RATHER MILD...THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND LONGER
GROWING NIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL. LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY...BASICALLY LEANING
ON THE COOLEST GUIDANCE VALUES. MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO DROP A DEGREE
OR TWO MORE IN SOME SPOTS. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE AN INTERESTING DAY
AS VERY MILD 850 MB TEMPS SURGE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY/GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR GOOD MIXING. INCREASED HIGHS EVEN MORE AS
THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY MILD DAY. WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH VALUES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE...KEEPING BREEZY
CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA. AS THE
TROUGH/FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN
THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD STAYING DRY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KUNR 190804
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
204 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 201 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE...PUSHING SOME CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. AXIS OF
SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY THROUGH WESTERN SD. WINDS ARE EITHER
CALM OR LIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY...SHIFTING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO
THE REGION TODAY...AND SKIES WILL BE SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW
70S...60S IN THE BLACK HILLS. RETURN FLOW SETS UP AGAIN MONDAY AS
HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA...CREATING SOMEWHAT BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND ADVECTING IN MORE WARM AIR. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S UNDER CLEAR SKIES. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 201 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. BL-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 80...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. UPPER TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY WILL BE
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 201 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KABR 190527 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 3 TO
4 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. AS
SUCH...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. STRATUS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE EASTERN CWA FOR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS IS FINALLY ERODING...AND ONLY FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THE
TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH THE ENTIRE REGION BREAKING OUT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A RESULTANT WIND SHIFT
HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A SLOWLY APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AT THE SFC A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND COLLAPSES ON WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN THURSDAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL ALSO HELP TO
DRAW UP UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S
AND 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND ALSO HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WED BUT THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 190527 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 3 TO
4 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. AS
SUCH...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. STRATUS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE EASTERN CWA FOR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS IS FINALLY ERODING...AND ONLY FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THE
TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH THE ENTIRE REGION BREAKING OUT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A RESULTANT WIND SHIFT
HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A SLOWLY APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AT THE SFC A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND COLLAPSES ON WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN THURSDAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL ALSO HELP TO
DRAW UP UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S
AND 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND ALSO HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WED BUT THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 190404
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1104 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A TROUGH
AXIS/WARM FRONT SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING GRADUALLY WARMING LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS WELL
AS AN INCREASING WIND FIELD. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT SO SOME OF THE WIND WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH
15Z WHERE SOME OF THESE WINDS COULD SURFACE...RESULTING IN A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT...LEADING INTO A VERY MILD DAY ON SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH GOOD MIXING
SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO DROP TO JUST EITHER SIDE OF 40 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND
WITH COOLING THERMAL PROFILES...HIGHS WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OVER SUNDAYS...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S EAST TO LOWER 70S WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH. IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY IN OUR
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...PERHAPS JUST A TOUCH COOLER IN OUR EAST WHERE MIXING WILL
BE LESS...BUT STILL LOWER 60S FAR EAST TO THE LOWER 70S THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DRIVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK...STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THEY HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH GENERALLY SPLITTING THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. AS A RESULT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ON THE BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...BUT
LOOKS TO BE LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST INCREASING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE...WHICH MAY CAUSE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 190404
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1104 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A TROUGH
AXIS/WARM FRONT SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING GRADUALLY WARMING LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS WELL
AS AN INCREASING WIND FIELD. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT SO SOME OF THE WIND WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH
15Z WHERE SOME OF THESE WINDS COULD SURFACE...RESULTING IN A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT...LEADING INTO A VERY MILD DAY ON SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH GOOD MIXING
SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO DROP TO JUST EITHER SIDE OF 40 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND
WITH COOLING THERMAL PROFILES...HIGHS WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OVER SUNDAYS...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S EAST TO LOWER 70S WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH. IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY IN OUR
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...PERHAPS JUST A TOUCH COOLER IN OUR EAST WHERE MIXING WILL
BE LESS...BUT STILL LOWER 60S FAR EAST TO THE LOWER 70S THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DRIVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK...STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THEY HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH GENERALLY SPLITTING THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. AS A RESULT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ON THE BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...BUT
LOOKS TO BE LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST INCREASING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE...WHICH MAY CAUSE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 190404
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1104 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A TROUGH
AXIS/WARM FRONT SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING GRADUALLY WARMING LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS WELL
AS AN INCREASING WIND FIELD. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT SO SOME OF THE WIND WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH
15Z WHERE SOME OF THESE WINDS COULD SURFACE...RESULTING IN A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT...LEADING INTO A VERY MILD DAY ON SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH GOOD MIXING
SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO DROP TO JUST EITHER SIDE OF 40 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND
WITH COOLING THERMAL PROFILES...HIGHS WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OVER SUNDAYS...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S EAST TO LOWER 70S WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH. IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY IN OUR
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...PERHAPS JUST A TOUCH COOLER IN OUR EAST WHERE MIXING WILL
BE LESS...BUT STILL LOWER 60S FAR EAST TO THE LOWER 70S THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DRIVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK...STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THEY HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH GENERALLY SPLITTING THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. AS A RESULT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ON THE BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...BUT
LOOKS TO BE LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST INCREASING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE...WHICH MAY CAUSE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 190404
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1104 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A TROUGH
AXIS/WARM FRONT SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING GRADUALLY WARMING LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS WELL
AS AN INCREASING WIND FIELD. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT SO SOME OF THE WIND WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH
15Z WHERE SOME OF THESE WINDS COULD SURFACE...RESULTING IN A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT...LEADING INTO A VERY MILD DAY ON SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH GOOD MIXING
SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO DROP TO JUST EITHER SIDE OF 40 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND
WITH COOLING THERMAL PROFILES...HIGHS WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OVER SUNDAYS...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S EAST TO LOWER 70S WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH. IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY IN OUR
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...PERHAPS JUST A TOUCH COOLER IN OUR EAST WHERE MIXING WILL
BE LESS...BUT STILL LOWER 60S FAR EAST TO THE LOWER 70S THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DRIVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK...STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THEY HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH GENERALLY SPLITTING THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. AS A RESULT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ON THE BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...BUT
LOOKS TO BE LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST INCREASING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE...WHICH MAY CAUSE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 190404
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1104 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A TROUGH
AXIS/WARM FRONT SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING GRADUALLY WARMING LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS WELL
AS AN INCREASING WIND FIELD. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT SO SOME OF THE WIND WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH
15Z WHERE SOME OF THESE WINDS COULD SURFACE...RESULTING IN A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT...LEADING INTO A VERY MILD DAY ON SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH GOOD MIXING
SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO DROP TO JUST EITHER SIDE OF 40 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND
WITH COOLING THERMAL PROFILES...HIGHS WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OVER SUNDAYS...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S EAST TO LOWER 70S WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH. IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY IN OUR
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...PERHAPS JUST A TOUCH COOLER IN OUR EAST WHERE MIXING WILL
BE LESS...BUT STILL LOWER 60S FAR EAST TO THE LOWER 70S THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DRIVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK...STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THEY HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH GENERALLY SPLITTING THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. AS A RESULT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ON THE BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...BUT
LOOKS TO BE LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST INCREASING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE...WHICH MAY CAUSE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 190404
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1104 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A TROUGH
AXIS/WARM FRONT SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING GRADUALLY WARMING LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS WELL
AS AN INCREASING WIND FIELD. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT SO SOME OF THE WIND WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH
15Z WHERE SOME OF THESE WINDS COULD SURFACE...RESULTING IN A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT...LEADING INTO A VERY MILD DAY ON SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH GOOD MIXING
SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO DROP TO JUST EITHER SIDE OF 40 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND
WITH COOLING THERMAL PROFILES...HIGHS WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OVER SUNDAYS...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S EAST TO LOWER 70S WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH. IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY IN OUR
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...PERHAPS JUST A TOUCH COOLER IN OUR EAST WHERE MIXING WILL
BE LESS...BUT STILL LOWER 60S FAR EAST TO THE LOWER 70S THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DRIVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK...STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THEY HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH GENERALLY SPLITTING THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. AS A RESULT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ON THE BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...BUT
LOOKS TO BE LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST INCREASING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE...WHICH MAY CAUSE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KUNR 190349
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
949 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS WITH
VERY QUIET WEATHER OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH BREEZY SLY RETURN FLOW OVER
THE WRN SD PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. A SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES WILL CROSS THE CWA TONIGHT BRINGING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S...WITH THE WARMER SPOTS OVER THE WRN SD PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY AS TROF
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...BUNKERS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 190349
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
949 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS WITH
VERY QUIET WEATHER OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH BREEZY SLY RETURN FLOW OVER
THE WRN SD PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. A SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES WILL CROSS THE CWA TONIGHT BRINGING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S...WITH THE WARMER SPOTS OVER THE WRN SD PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY AS TROF
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...BUNKERS





000
FXUS63 KUNR 190349
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
949 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS WITH
VERY QUIET WEATHER OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH BREEZY SLY RETURN FLOW OVER
THE WRN SD PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. A SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES WILL CROSS THE CWA TONIGHT BRINGING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S...WITH THE WARMER SPOTS OVER THE WRN SD PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY AS TROF
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...BUNKERS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 190349
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
949 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS WITH
VERY QUIET WEATHER OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH BREEZY SLY RETURN FLOW OVER
THE WRN SD PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. A SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES WILL CROSS THE CWA TONIGHT BRINGING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S...WITH THE WARMER SPOTS OVER THE WRN SD PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY AS TROF
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...BUNKERS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 190349
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
949 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS WITH
VERY QUIET WEATHER OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH BREEZY SLY RETURN FLOW OVER
THE WRN SD PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. A SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES WILL CROSS THE CWA TONIGHT BRINGING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S...WITH THE WARMER SPOTS OVER THE WRN SD PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY AS TROF
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...BUNKERS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 190349
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
949 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS WITH
VERY QUIET WEATHER OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH BREEZY SLY RETURN FLOW OVER
THE WRN SD PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. A SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES WILL CROSS THE CWA TONIGHT BRINGING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S...WITH THE WARMER SPOTS OVER THE WRN SD PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY AS TROF
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...BUNKERS




000
FXUS63 KABR 190204 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
904 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
HI-RES 4KM ABR AND HOP WRF MODELS DETECTING SOME LEE-OF-THE-COTEAU
DOWN-SLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WHILE LOW
LEVEL WAA SEQUENCE IS OCCURRING. MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
EXCEPT FOR THE LOCAL EFFECTS OF STRONGER WINDS/GUSTS AND WARMER
TEMPS WITHIN/ALONG FAVORED DOWN-SLOPE WIND CORRIDORS. THOSE MINOR
MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WIND/TEMP GRIDS...OTHERWISE
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS FINE. UPDATES ARE OUT.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 3 TO
4 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. AS
SUCH...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. STRATUS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE EASTERN CWA FOR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS IS FINALLY ERODING...AND ONLY FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THE
TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH THE ENTIRE REGION BREAKING OUT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A RESULTANT WIND SHIFT
HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A SLOWLY APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AT THE SFC A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND COLLAPSES ON WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN THURSDAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL ALSO HELP TO
DRAW UP UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S
AND 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND ALSO HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WED BUT THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
/ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE/ AT KMBG...KPIR BY LATE TONIGHT
AND EVENTUALLY AT KABR...KATY LATER DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 190204 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
904 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
HI-RES 4KM ABR AND HOP WRF MODELS DETECTING SOME LEE-OF-THE-COTEAU
DOWN-SLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WHILE LOW
LEVEL WAA SEQUENCE IS OCCURRING. MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
EXCEPT FOR THE LOCAL EFFECTS OF STRONGER WINDS/GUSTS AND WARMER
TEMPS WITHIN/ALONG FAVORED DOWN-SLOPE WIND CORRIDORS. THOSE MINOR
MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WIND/TEMP GRIDS...OTHERWISE
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS FINE. UPDATES ARE OUT.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 3 TO
4 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. AS
SUCH...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. STRATUS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE EASTERN CWA FOR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS IS FINALLY ERODING...AND ONLY FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THE
TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH THE ENTIRE REGION BREAKING OUT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A RESULTANT WIND SHIFT
HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A SLOWLY APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AT THE SFC A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND COLLAPSES ON WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN THURSDAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL ALSO HELP TO
DRAW UP UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S
AND 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND ALSO HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WED BUT THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
/ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE/ AT KMBG...KPIR BY LATE TONIGHT
AND EVENTUALLY AT KABR...KATY LATER DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 182345
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
645 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A TROUGH
AXIS/WARM FRONT SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING GRADUALLY WARMING LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS WELL
AS AN INCREASING WIND FIELD. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT SO SOME OF THE WIND WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH
15Z WHERE SOME OF THESE WINDS COULD SURFACE...RESULTING IN A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT...LEADING INTO A VERY MILD DAY ON SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH GOOD MIXING
SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO DROP TO JUST EITHER SIDE OF 40 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND
WITH COOLING THERMAL PROFILES...HIGHS WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OVER SUNDAYS...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S EAST TO LOWER 70S WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH. IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY IN OUR
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...PERHAPS JUST A TOUCH COOLER IN OUR EAST WHERE MIXING WILL
BE LESS...BUT STILL LOWER 60S FAR EAST TO THE LOWER 70S THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DRIVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK...STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THEY HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH GENERALLY SPLITTING THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. AS A RESULT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ON THE BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...BUT
LOOKS TO BE LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST INCREASING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE...WHICH MAY CAUSE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 182345
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
645 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A TROUGH
AXIS/WARM FRONT SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING GRADUALLY WARMING LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS WELL
AS AN INCREASING WIND FIELD. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT SO SOME OF THE WIND WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH
15Z WHERE SOME OF THESE WINDS COULD SURFACE...RESULTING IN A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT...LEADING INTO A VERY MILD DAY ON SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH GOOD MIXING
SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO DROP TO JUST EITHER SIDE OF 40 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND
WITH COOLING THERMAL PROFILES...HIGHS WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OVER SUNDAYS...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S EAST TO LOWER 70S WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH. IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY IN OUR
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...PERHAPS JUST A TOUCH COOLER IN OUR EAST WHERE MIXING WILL
BE LESS...BUT STILL LOWER 60S FAR EAST TO THE LOWER 70S THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DRIVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK...STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THEY HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH GENERALLY SPLITTING THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. AS A RESULT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ON THE BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...BUT
LOOKS TO BE LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST INCREASING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE...WHICH MAY CAUSE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KABR 182337 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
637 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 3 TO
4 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. AS
SUCH...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. STRATUS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE EASTERN CWA FOR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS IS FINALLY ERODING...AND ONLY FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THE
TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH THE ENTIRE REGION BREAKING OUT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A RESULTANT WIND SHIFT
HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A SLOWLY APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AT THE SFC A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND COLLAPSES ON WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN THURSDAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL ALSO HELP TO
DRAW UP UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S
AND 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND ALSO HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WED BUT THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
/ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE/ AT KMBG...KPIR BY LATE TONIGHT
AND EVENTUALLY AT KABR...KATY LATER DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 182337 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
637 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 3 TO
4 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. AS
SUCH...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. STRATUS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE EASTERN CWA FOR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS IS FINALLY ERODING...AND ONLY FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THE
TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH THE ENTIRE REGION BREAKING OUT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A RESULTANT WIND SHIFT
HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A SLOWLY APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AT THE SFC A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND COLLAPSES ON WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN THURSDAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL ALSO HELP TO
DRAW UP UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S
AND 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND ALSO HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WED BUT THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
/ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE/ AT KMBG...KPIR BY LATE TONIGHT
AND EVENTUALLY AT KABR...KATY LATER DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KUNR 182252
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
452 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS WITH
VERY QUIET WEATHER OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH BREEZY SRLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE
WRN SD PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. A SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL
CROSS THE CWA TONIGHT BRINGING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO MID
70S...WITH THE WARMER SPOTS OVER THE WRN SD PLAINS.


&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY AS TROF
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 448 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SFC TROUGH WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE TROUGH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 182252
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
452 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS WITH
VERY QUIET WEATHER OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH BREEZY SRLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE
WRN SD PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. A SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL
CROSS THE CWA TONIGHT BRINGING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO MID
70S...WITH THE WARMER SPOTS OVER THE WRN SD PLAINS.


&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY AS TROF
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 448 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SFC TROUGH WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE TROUGH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC






000
FXUS63 KUNR 182041
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
241 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS WITH
VERY QUIET WEATHER OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH BREEZY SRLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE
WRN SD PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. A SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL
CROSS THE CWA TONIGHT BRINGING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO MID
70S...WITH THE WARMER SPOTS OVER THE WRN SD PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY AS TROF
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON








000
FXUS63 KFSD 182039
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
339 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A TROUGH
AXIS/WARM FRONT SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING GRADUALLY WARMING LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS WELL
AS AN INCREASING WIND FIELD. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT SO SOME OF THE WIND WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH
15Z WHERE SOME OF THESE WINDS COULD SURFACE...RESULTING IN A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT...LEADING INTO A VERY MILD DAY ON SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH GOOD MIXING
SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO DROP TO JUST EITHER SIDE OF 40 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND
WITH COOLING THERMAL PROFILES...HIGHS WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OVER SUNDAYS...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S EAST TO LOWER 70S WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH. IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY IN OUR
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...PERHAPS JUST A TOUCH COOLER IN OUR EAST WHERE MIXING WILL
BE LESS...BUT STILL LOWER 60S FAR EAST TO THE LOWER 70S THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DRIVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK...STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THEY HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH GENERALLY SPLITTING THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. AS A RESULT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ON THE BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...BUT
LOOKS TO BE LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KABR 182009
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
309 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 3 TO
4 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. AS
SUCH...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. STRATUS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE EASTERN CWA FOR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS IS FINALLY ERODING...AND ONLY FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THE
TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH THE ENTIRE REGION BREAKING OUT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A RESULTANT WIND SHIFT
HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A SLOWLY APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AT THE SFC A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND COLLAPSES ON WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN THURSDAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL ALSO HELP TO
DRAW UP UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S
AND 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND ALSO HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WED BUT THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HANG ON OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE
CLOUDS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS
PUSHES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 182009
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
309 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 3 TO
4 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. AS
SUCH...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. STRATUS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE EASTERN CWA FOR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS IS FINALLY ERODING...AND ONLY FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THE
TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH THE ENTIRE REGION BREAKING OUT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A RESULTANT WIND SHIFT
HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A SLOWLY APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AT THE SFC A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND COLLAPSES ON WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN THURSDAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL ALSO HELP TO
DRAW UP UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S
AND 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND ALSO HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WED BUT THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HANG ON OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE
CLOUDS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS
PUSHES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 181744 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1244 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS DECK IS HANGING IN STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
AND HAS ACTUALLY MOVED BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS DEALING WITH THESE
CLOUDS...AND EXACTLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO DEPART/BREAK UP.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THEY WILL BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA SO HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT. SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THOUGH THAT THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE QUITE THIN...SO THEY
MAY BE ABLE TO BURN OFF A BIT EASIER THAN IF THE DECK WAS THICKER.
REGARDLESS...STILL BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA...BUT HAVE TRENDED THINGS
TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS 850
MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.




.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...LIKELY RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY. AS THE TROUGH/FRONT
SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEN BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK OVER THE PLAINS.

H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HANG ON OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE
CLOUDS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS
PUSHES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 181744 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1244 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS DECK IS HANGING IN STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
AND HAS ACTUALLY MOVED BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS DEALING WITH THESE
CLOUDS...AND EXACTLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO DEPART/BREAK UP.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THEY WILL BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA SO HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT. SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THOUGH THAT THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE QUITE THIN...SO THEY
MAY BE ABLE TO BURN OFF A BIT EASIER THAN IF THE DECK WAS THICKER.
REGARDLESS...STILL BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA...BUT HAVE TRENDED THINGS
TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS 850
MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.




.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...LIKELY RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY. AS THE TROUGH/FRONT
SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEN BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK OVER THE PLAINS.

H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HANG ON OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE
CLOUDS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS
PUSHES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 181744 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1244 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS DECK IS HANGING IN STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
AND HAS ACTUALLY MOVED BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS DEALING WITH THESE
CLOUDS...AND EXACTLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO DEPART/BREAK UP.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THEY WILL BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA SO HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT. SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THOUGH THAT THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE QUITE THIN...SO THEY
MAY BE ABLE TO BURN OFF A BIT EASIER THAN IF THE DECK WAS THICKER.
REGARDLESS...STILL BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA...BUT HAVE TRENDED THINGS
TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS 850
MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.




.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...LIKELY RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY. AS THE TROUGH/FRONT
SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEN BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK OVER THE PLAINS.

H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HANG ON OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE
CLOUDS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS
PUSHES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KUNR 181647
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1047 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO NORTHWEST SD FROM THE EAST.
SHORT-TERM MODELS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FOG AROUND THE FAITH
AND BUFFALO AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING...SO ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
GRIDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER THERE. OBS INDICATE SOME LESS
DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE LOW-LYING AREAS AROUND THE PINE
RIDGE/CHADRON REGION...BUT WILL LEAVE FOG MENTION THERE OUT OF GRIDS
FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA...OTHER THAN SOME
CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO
THE EAST...WINDS ARE SOUTHEASTERLY. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE
30S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S. RETURN FLOW INCREASES AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE SURFACE HIGH...AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AROUND 15 KTS.

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE TONIGHT...AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH 60S IN THE BLACK HILLS.


&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY AS TROF
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 181647
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1047 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO NORTHWEST SD FROM THE EAST.
SHORT-TERM MODELS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FOG AROUND THE FAITH
AND BUFFALO AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING...SO ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
GRIDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER THERE. OBS INDICATE SOME LESS
DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE LOW-LYING AREAS AROUND THE PINE
RIDGE/CHADRON REGION...BUT WILL LEAVE FOG MENTION THERE OUT OF GRIDS
FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA...OTHER THAN SOME
CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO
THE EAST...WINDS ARE SOUTHEASTERLY. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE
30S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S. RETURN FLOW INCREASES AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE SURFACE HIGH...AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AROUND 15 KTS.

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE TONIGHT...AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH 60S IN THE BLACK HILLS.


&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY AS TROF
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 181647
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1047 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO NORTHWEST SD FROM THE EAST.
SHORT-TERM MODELS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FOG AROUND THE FAITH
AND BUFFALO AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING...SO ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
GRIDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER THERE. OBS INDICATE SOME LESS
DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE LOW-LYING AREAS AROUND THE PINE
RIDGE/CHADRON REGION...BUT WILL LEAVE FOG MENTION THERE OUT OF GRIDS
FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA...OTHER THAN SOME
CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO
THE EAST...WINDS ARE SOUTHEASTERLY. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE
30S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S. RETURN FLOW INCREASES AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE SURFACE HIGH...AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AROUND 15 KTS.

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE TONIGHT...AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH 60S IN THE BLACK HILLS.


&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY AS TROF
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 181647
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1047 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO NORTHWEST SD FROM THE EAST.
SHORT-TERM MODELS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FOG AROUND THE FAITH
AND BUFFALO AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING...SO ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
GRIDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER THERE. OBS INDICATE SOME LESS
DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE LOW-LYING AREAS AROUND THE PINE
RIDGE/CHADRON REGION...BUT WILL LEAVE FOG MENTION THERE OUT OF GRIDS
FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA...OTHER THAN SOME
CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO
THE EAST...WINDS ARE SOUTHEASTERLY. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE
30S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S. RETURN FLOW INCREASES AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE SURFACE HIGH...AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AROUND 15 KTS.

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE TONIGHT...AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH 60S IN THE BLACK HILLS.


&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY AS TROF
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 181647
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1047 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO NORTHWEST SD FROM THE EAST.
SHORT-TERM MODELS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FOG AROUND THE FAITH
AND BUFFALO AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING...SO ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
GRIDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER THERE. OBS INDICATE SOME LESS
DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE LOW-LYING AREAS AROUND THE PINE
RIDGE/CHADRON REGION...BUT WILL LEAVE FOG MENTION THERE OUT OF GRIDS
FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA...OTHER THAN SOME
CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO
THE EAST...WINDS ARE SOUTHEASTERLY. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE
30S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S. RETURN FLOW INCREASES AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE SURFACE HIGH...AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AROUND 15 KTS.

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE TONIGHT...AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH 60S IN THE BLACK HILLS.


&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY AS TROF
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 181647
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1047 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO NORTHWEST SD FROM THE EAST.
SHORT-TERM MODELS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FOG AROUND THE FAITH
AND BUFFALO AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING...SO ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
GRIDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER THERE. OBS INDICATE SOME LESS
DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE LOW-LYING AREAS AROUND THE PINE
RIDGE/CHADRON REGION...BUT WILL LEAVE FOG MENTION THERE OUT OF GRIDS
FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA...OTHER THAN SOME
CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO
THE EAST...WINDS ARE SOUTHEASTERLY. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE
30S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S. RETURN FLOW INCREASES AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE SURFACE HIGH...AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AROUND 15 KTS.

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE TONIGHT...AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH 60S IN THE BLACK HILLS.


&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY AS TROF
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KABR 181538 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1038 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...HOWEVER WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING
IMPROVEMENT...AND SUSPECT FOG WILL LIFT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN THREE FOURTHS OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING...AND LIKEWISE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW
TO RISE. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOISTURE TO BE VERY SHALLOW...SO WOULD
SUSPECT THAT DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE CLOUD COVER AT
LEAST SOME THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED HIGHS
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH THE PACKAGE UPDATE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS DECK IS HANGING IN STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
AND HAS ACTUALLY MOVED BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS DEALING WITH THESE
CLOUDS...AND EXACTLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO DEPART/BREAK UP.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THEY WILL BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA SO HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT. SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THOUGH THAT THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE QUITE THIN...SO THEY
MAY BE ABLE TO BURN OFF A BIT EASIER THAN IF THE DECK WAS THICKER.
REGARDLESS...STILL BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA...BUT HAVE TRENDED THINGS
TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS 850
MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...LIKELY RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY. AS THE TROUGH/FRONT
SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEN BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK OVER THE PLAINS.

H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HANG IN TIGHT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. IFR VSBYS IN FOG
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AT KPIR AS WELL. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THE SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS PUSHES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 181538 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1038 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...HOWEVER WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING
IMPROVEMENT...AND SUSPECT FOG WILL LIFT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN THREE FOURTHS OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING...AND LIKEWISE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW
TO RISE. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOISTURE TO BE VERY SHALLOW...SO WOULD
SUSPECT THAT DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE CLOUD COVER AT
LEAST SOME THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED HIGHS
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH THE PACKAGE UPDATE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS DECK IS HANGING IN STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
AND HAS ACTUALLY MOVED BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS DEALING WITH THESE
CLOUDS...AND EXACTLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO DEPART/BREAK UP.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THEY WILL BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA SO HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT. SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THOUGH THAT THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE QUITE THIN...SO THEY
MAY BE ABLE TO BURN OFF A BIT EASIER THAN IF THE DECK WAS THICKER.
REGARDLESS...STILL BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA...BUT HAVE TRENDED THINGS
TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS 850
MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...LIKELY RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY. AS THE TROUGH/FRONT
SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEN BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK OVER THE PLAINS.

H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HANG IN TIGHT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. IFR VSBYS IN FOG
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AT KPIR AS WELL. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THE SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS PUSHES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 181142
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
642 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE
STRATUS...CURRENTLY BLANKETING THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA...
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA.  NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
STRATUS TO CONTINUE STREAMING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL
SINK SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT THEN TURN SOUTH SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
STRATUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE WITH THE WIND SHIFT...CLEARING
IN THE WEST THIS MORNING AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...HIGH
SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH NEAR 60. ELSEWHERE...THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE
EXPECTED.

SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WILL HOVER
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE...MAINLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AS WEAK ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE MOVES BY. THIS WILL LEAVE SOME DECENT HEATING IN THE
WARMER AND MIXED AIR AND ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB CLOSE
TO OR A BUT ABOVE 70.

TRAILING CENTRAL CANADIAN SHORT WAVE WILL DIG EAST OF THE AREA AND
SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER A FEW LOW CLOUDS COULD
CLIP THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA
ON THE EDGE OF THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR BEING DRAWN TO THE EAST
SIDE OF THE AREA AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST. MODEST COOLING
MONDAY OVER SUNDAY OF A COUPLE OR THREE DEGREES WILL BE A LITTLE
STRINGER IN THAT EASTERN AREA...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE MILD ENOUGH.

TUESDAY WILL BRING SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND THE START OF
WARMING AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER AND EAST OF THE
AREA. SURFACE WARMING WILL BE WEAK OR NIL ESPECIALLY EAST IN
LINGERING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...BUT AGAIN IT WILL STILL BE MILD.

MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED OF WEAK SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH AT MIDWEEK
AND THE TIMING OF THE RESULTING LIGHT SHOWER THREAT. BOTH THE GFS
AND EC BRING IT INTO THE PICTURE SOONER THAN BEFORE. THE GFS MOVES
IT STEADILY BUT FAIRLY SLOWLY ACROSS...WHILE THE EC SPLITS IT UP,
SPEEDS THE NORTHERN BRANCH THROUGH QUICKLY, AND SQUASHED THE SOUTHERN
WAVE WITH ROCKIES RIDGING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE WHICH LEANS TO THE GFS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
IN THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY...AFTER STARTING THEM WEDNESDAY WEST.
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND MILD...AND IF THE EC IS RIGHT...THURSDAY COULD
BE SO ALSO. EITHER WAY...THE CONTINUATION OF A WARM FALL PATTERN IS
NOT IN DOUBT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BROAD STRATUS DECKS CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE BULK OF THE
REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A
SMALL AND NARROW POCKET OF CLEARING IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY
REACH THE KSUX AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTH SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING THE STRATUS TO LIFT AND EXIT THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS CLEARING SHOULD REACH THE I29 CORRIDOR
AROUND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 181142
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
642 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE
STRATUS...CURRENTLY BLANKETING THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA...
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA.  NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
STRATUS TO CONTINUE STREAMING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL
SINK SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT THEN TURN SOUTH SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
STRATUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE WITH THE WIND SHIFT...CLEARING
IN THE WEST THIS MORNING AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...HIGH
SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH NEAR 60. ELSEWHERE...THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE
EXPECTED.

SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WILL HOVER
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE...MAINLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AS WEAK ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE MOVES BY. THIS WILL LEAVE SOME DECENT HEATING IN THE
WARMER AND MIXED AIR AND ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB CLOSE
TO OR A BUT ABOVE 70.

TRAILING CENTRAL CANADIAN SHORT WAVE WILL DIG EAST OF THE AREA AND
SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER A FEW LOW CLOUDS COULD
CLIP THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA
ON THE EDGE OF THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR BEING DRAWN TO THE EAST
SIDE OF THE AREA AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST. MODEST COOLING
MONDAY OVER SUNDAY OF A COUPLE OR THREE DEGREES WILL BE A LITTLE
STRINGER IN THAT EASTERN AREA...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE MILD ENOUGH.

TUESDAY WILL BRING SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND THE START OF
WARMING AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER AND EAST OF THE
AREA. SURFACE WARMING WILL BE WEAK OR NIL ESPECIALLY EAST IN
LINGERING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...BUT AGAIN IT WILL STILL BE MILD.

MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED OF WEAK SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH AT MIDWEEK
AND THE TIMING OF THE RESULTING LIGHT SHOWER THREAT. BOTH THE GFS
AND EC BRING IT INTO THE PICTURE SOONER THAN BEFORE. THE GFS MOVES
IT STEADILY BUT FAIRLY SLOWLY ACROSS...WHILE THE EC SPLITS IT UP,
SPEEDS THE NORTHERN BRANCH THROUGH QUICKLY, AND SQUASHED THE SOUTHERN
WAVE WITH ROCKIES RIDGING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE WHICH LEANS TO THE GFS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
IN THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY...AFTER STARTING THEM WEDNESDAY WEST.
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND MILD...AND IF THE EC IS RIGHT...THURSDAY COULD
BE SO ALSO. EITHER WAY...THE CONTINUATION OF A WARM FALL PATTERN IS
NOT IN DOUBT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BROAD STRATUS DECKS CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE BULK OF THE
REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A
SMALL AND NARROW POCKET OF CLEARING IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY
REACH THE KSUX AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTH SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING THE STRATUS TO LIFT AND EXIT THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS CLEARING SHOULD REACH THE I29 CORRIDOR
AROUND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 181142
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
642 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE
STRATUS...CURRENTLY BLANKETING THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA...
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA.  NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
STRATUS TO CONTINUE STREAMING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL
SINK SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT THEN TURN SOUTH SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
STRATUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE WITH THE WIND SHIFT...CLEARING
IN THE WEST THIS MORNING AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...HIGH
SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH NEAR 60. ELSEWHERE...THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE
EXPECTED.

SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WILL HOVER
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE...MAINLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AS WEAK ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE MOVES BY. THIS WILL LEAVE SOME DECENT HEATING IN THE
WARMER AND MIXED AIR AND ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB CLOSE
TO OR A BUT ABOVE 70.

TRAILING CENTRAL CANADIAN SHORT WAVE WILL DIG EAST OF THE AREA AND
SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER A FEW LOW CLOUDS COULD
CLIP THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA
ON THE EDGE OF THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR BEING DRAWN TO THE EAST
SIDE OF THE AREA AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST. MODEST COOLING
MONDAY OVER SUNDAY OF A COUPLE OR THREE DEGREES WILL BE A LITTLE
STRINGER IN THAT EASTERN AREA...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE MILD ENOUGH.

TUESDAY WILL BRING SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND THE START OF
WARMING AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER AND EAST OF THE
AREA. SURFACE WARMING WILL BE WEAK OR NIL ESPECIALLY EAST IN
LINGERING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...BUT AGAIN IT WILL STILL BE MILD.

MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED OF WEAK SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH AT MIDWEEK
AND THE TIMING OF THE RESULTING LIGHT SHOWER THREAT. BOTH THE GFS
AND EC BRING IT INTO THE PICTURE SOONER THAN BEFORE. THE GFS MOVES
IT STEADILY BUT FAIRLY SLOWLY ACROSS...WHILE THE EC SPLITS IT UP,
SPEEDS THE NORTHERN BRANCH THROUGH QUICKLY, AND SQUASHED THE SOUTHERN
WAVE WITH ROCKIES RIDGING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE WHICH LEANS TO THE GFS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
IN THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY...AFTER STARTING THEM WEDNESDAY WEST.
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND MILD...AND IF THE EC IS RIGHT...THURSDAY COULD
BE SO ALSO. EITHER WAY...THE CONTINUATION OF A WARM FALL PATTERN IS
NOT IN DOUBT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BROAD STRATUS DECKS CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE BULK OF THE
REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A
SMALL AND NARROW POCKET OF CLEARING IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY
REACH THE KSUX AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTH SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING THE STRATUS TO LIFT AND EXIT THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS CLEARING SHOULD REACH THE I29 CORRIDOR
AROUND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 181142
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
642 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE
STRATUS...CURRENTLY BLANKETING THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA...
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA.  NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
STRATUS TO CONTINUE STREAMING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL
SINK SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT THEN TURN SOUTH SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
STRATUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE WITH THE WIND SHIFT...CLEARING
IN THE WEST THIS MORNING AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...HIGH
SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH NEAR 60. ELSEWHERE...THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE
EXPECTED.

SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WILL HOVER
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE...MAINLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AS WEAK ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE MOVES BY. THIS WILL LEAVE SOME DECENT HEATING IN THE
WARMER AND MIXED AIR AND ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB CLOSE
TO OR A BUT ABOVE 70.

TRAILING CENTRAL CANADIAN SHORT WAVE WILL DIG EAST OF THE AREA AND
SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER A FEW LOW CLOUDS COULD
CLIP THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA
ON THE EDGE OF THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR BEING DRAWN TO THE EAST
SIDE OF THE AREA AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST. MODEST COOLING
MONDAY OVER SUNDAY OF A COUPLE OR THREE DEGREES WILL BE A LITTLE
STRINGER IN THAT EASTERN AREA...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE MILD ENOUGH.

TUESDAY WILL BRING SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND THE START OF
WARMING AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER AND EAST OF THE
AREA. SURFACE WARMING WILL BE WEAK OR NIL ESPECIALLY EAST IN
LINGERING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...BUT AGAIN IT WILL STILL BE MILD.

MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED OF WEAK SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH AT MIDWEEK
AND THE TIMING OF THE RESULTING LIGHT SHOWER THREAT. BOTH THE GFS
AND EC BRING IT INTO THE PICTURE SOONER THAN BEFORE. THE GFS MOVES
IT STEADILY BUT FAIRLY SLOWLY ACROSS...WHILE THE EC SPLITS IT UP,
SPEEDS THE NORTHERN BRANCH THROUGH QUICKLY, AND SQUASHED THE SOUTHERN
WAVE WITH ROCKIES RIDGING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE WHICH LEANS TO THE GFS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
IN THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY...AFTER STARTING THEM WEDNESDAY WEST.
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND MILD...AND IF THE EC IS RIGHT...THURSDAY COULD
BE SO ALSO. EITHER WAY...THE CONTINUATION OF A WARM FALL PATTERN IS
NOT IN DOUBT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BROAD STRATUS DECKS CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE BULK OF THE
REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A
SMALL AND NARROW POCKET OF CLEARING IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY
REACH THE KSUX AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTH SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING THE STRATUS TO LIFT AND EXIT THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS CLEARING SHOULD REACH THE I29 CORRIDOR
AROUND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 181142
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
642 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE
STRATUS...CURRENTLY BLANKETING THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA...
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA.  NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
STRATUS TO CONTINUE STREAMING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL
SINK SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT THEN TURN SOUTH SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
STRATUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE WITH THE WIND SHIFT...CLEARING
IN THE WEST THIS MORNING AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...HIGH
SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH NEAR 60. ELSEWHERE...THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE
EXPECTED.

SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WILL HOVER
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE...MAINLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AS WEAK ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE MOVES BY. THIS WILL LEAVE SOME DECENT HEATING IN THE
WARMER AND MIXED AIR AND ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB CLOSE
TO OR A BUT ABOVE 70.

TRAILING CENTRAL CANADIAN SHORT WAVE WILL DIG EAST OF THE AREA AND
SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER A FEW LOW CLOUDS COULD
CLIP THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA
ON THE EDGE OF THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR BEING DRAWN TO THE EAST
SIDE OF THE AREA AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST. MODEST COOLING
MONDAY OVER SUNDAY OF A COUPLE OR THREE DEGREES WILL BE A LITTLE
STRINGER IN THAT EASTERN AREA...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE MILD ENOUGH.

TUESDAY WILL BRING SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND THE START OF
WARMING AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER AND EAST OF THE
AREA. SURFACE WARMING WILL BE WEAK OR NIL ESPECIALLY EAST IN
LINGERING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...BUT AGAIN IT WILL STILL BE MILD.

MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED OF WEAK SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH AT MIDWEEK
AND THE TIMING OF THE RESULTING LIGHT SHOWER THREAT. BOTH THE GFS
AND EC BRING IT INTO THE PICTURE SOONER THAN BEFORE. THE GFS MOVES
IT STEADILY BUT FAIRLY SLOWLY ACROSS...WHILE THE EC SPLITS IT UP,
SPEEDS THE NORTHERN BRANCH THROUGH QUICKLY, AND SQUASHED THE SOUTHERN
WAVE WITH ROCKIES RIDGING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE WHICH LEANS TO THE GFS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
IN THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY...AFTER STARTING THEM WEDNESDAY WEST.
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND MILD...AND IF THE EC IS RIGHT...THURSDAY COULD
BE SO ALSO. EITHER WAY...THE CONTINUATION OF A WARM FALL PATTERN IS
NOT IN DOUBT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BROAD STRATUS DECKS CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE BULK OF THE
REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A
SMALL AND NARROW POCKET OF CLEARING IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY
REACH THE KSUX AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTH SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING THE STRATUS TO LIFT AND EXIT THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS CLEARING SHOULD REACH THE I29 CORRIDOR
AROUND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 181142
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
642 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE
STRATUS...CURRENTLY BLANKETING THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA...
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA.  NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
STRATUS TO CONTINUE STREAMING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL
SINK SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT THEN TURN SOUTH SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
STRATUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE WITH THE WIND SHIFT...CLEARING
IN THE WEST THIS MORNING AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...HIGH
SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH NEAR 60. ELSEWHERE...THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE
EXPECTED.

SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WILL HOVER
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE...MAINLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AS WEAK ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE MOVES BY. THIS WILL LEAVE SOME DECENT HEATING IN THE
WARMER AND MIXED AIR AND ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB CLOSE
TO OR A BUT ABOVE 70.

TRAILING CENTRAL CANADIAN SHORT WAVE WILL DIG EAST OF THE AREA AND
SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER A FEW LOW CLOUDS COULD
CLIP THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA
ON THE EDGE OF THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR BEING DRAWN TO THE EAST
SIDE OF THE AREA AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST. MODEST COOLING
MONDAY OVER SUNDAY OF A COUPLE OR THREE DEGREES WILL BE A LITTLE
STRINGER IN THAT EASTERN AREA...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE MILD ENOUGH.

TUESDAY WILL BRING SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND THE START OF
WARMING AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER AND EAST OF THE
AREA. SURFACE WARMING WILL BE WEAK OR NIL ESPECIALLY EAST IN
LINGERING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...BUT AGAIN IT WILL STILL BE MILD.

MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED OF WEAK SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH AT MIDWEEK
AND THE TIMING OF THE RESULTING LIGHT SHOWER THREAT. BOTH THE GFS
AND EC BRING IT INTO THE PICTURE SOONER THAN BEFORE. THE GFS MOVES
IT STEADILY BUT FAIRLY SLOWLY ACROSS...WHILE THE EC SPLITS IT UP,
SPEEDS THE NORTHERN BRANCH THROUGH QUICKLY, AND SQUASHED THE SOUTHERN
WAVE WITH ROCKIES RIDGING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE WHICH LEANS TO THE GFS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
IN THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY...AFTER STARTING THEM WEDNESDAY WEST.
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND MILD...AND IF THE EC IS RIGHT...THURSDAY COULD
BE SO ALSO. EITHER WAY...THE CONTINUATION OF A WARM FALL PATTERN IS
NOT IN DOUBT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BROAD STRATUS DECKS CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE BULK OF THE
REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A
SMALL AND NARROW POCKET OF CLEARING IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY
REACH THE KSUX AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTH SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING THE STRATUS TO LIFT AND EXIT THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS CLEARING SHOULD REACH THE I29 CORRIDOR
AROUND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 181142
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
642 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE
STRATUS...CURRENTLY BLANKETING THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA...
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA.  NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
STRATUS TO CONTINUE STREAMING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL
SINK SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT THEN TURN SOUTH SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
STRATUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE WITH THE WIND SHIFT...CLEARING
IN THE WEST THIS MORNING AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...HIGH
SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH NEAR 60. ELSEWHERE...THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE
EXPECTED.

SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WILL HOVER
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE...MAINLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AS WEAK ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE MOVES BY. THIS WILL LEAVE SOME DECENT HEATING IN THE
WARMER AND MIXED AIR AND ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB CLOSE
TO OR A BUT ABOVE 70.

TRAILING CENTRAL CANADIAN SHORT WAVE WILL DIG EAST OF THE AREA AND
SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER A FEW LOW CLOUDS COULD
CLIP THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA
ON THE EDGE OF THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR BEING DRAWN TO THE EAST
SIDE OF THE AREA AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST. MODEST COOLING
MONDAY OVER SUNDAY OF A COUPLE OR THREE DEGREES WILL BE A LITTLE
STRINGER IN THAT EASTERN AREA...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE MILD ENOUGH.

TUESDAY WILL BRING SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND THE START OF
WARMING AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER AND EAST OF THE
AREA. SURFACE WARMING WILL BE WEAK OR NIL ESPECIALLY EAST IN
LINGERING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...BUT AGAIN IT WILL STILL BE MILD.

MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED OF WEAK SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH AT MIDWEEK
AND THE TIMING OF THE RESULTING LIGHT SHOWER THREAT. BOTH THE GFS
AND EC BRING IT INTO THE PICTURE SOONER THAN BEFORE. THE GFS MOVES
IT STEADILY BUT FAIRLY SLOWLY ACROSS...WHILE THE EC SPLITS IT UP,
SPEEDS THE NORTHERN BRANCH THROUGH QUICKLY, AND SQUASHED THE SOUTHERN
WAVE WITH ROCKIES RIDGING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE WHICH LEANS TO THE GFS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
IN THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY...AFTER STARTING THEM WEDNESDAY WEST.
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND MILD...AND IF THE EC IS RIGHT...THURSDAY COULD
BE SO ALSO. EITHER WAY...THE CONTINUATION OF A WARM FALL PATTERN IS
NOT IN DOUBT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BROAD STRATUS DECKS CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE BULK OF THE
REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A
SMALL AND NARROW POCKET OF CLEARING IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY
REACH THE KSUX AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTH SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING THE STRATUS TO LIFT AND EXIT THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS CLEARING SHOULD REACH THE I29 CORRIDOR
AROUND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 181142
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
642 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE
STRATUS...CURRENTLY BLANKETING THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA...
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA.  NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
STRATUS TO CONTINUE STREAMING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL
SINK SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT THEN TURN SOUTH SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
STRATUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE WITH THE WIND SHIFT...CLEARING
IN THE WEST THIS MORNING AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...HIGH
SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH NEAR 60. ELSEWHERE...THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE
EXPECTED.

SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WILL HOVER
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE...MAINLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AS WEAK ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE MOVES BY. THIS WILL LEAVE SOME DECENT HEATING IN THE
WARMER AND MIXED AIR AND ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB CLOSE
TO OR A BUT ABOVE 70.

TRAILING CENTRAL CANADIAN SHORT WAVE WILL DIG EAST OF THE AREA AND
SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER A FEW LOW CLOUDS COULD
CLIP THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA
ON THE EDGE OF THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR BEING DRAWN TO THE EAST
SIDE OF THE AREA AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST. MODEST COOLING
MONDAY OVER SUNDAY OF A COUPLE OR THREE DEGREES WILL BE A LITTLE
STRINGER IN THAT EASTERN AREA...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE MILD ENOUGH.

TUESDAY WILL BRING SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND THE START OF
WARMING AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER AND EAST OF THE
AREA. SURFACE WARMING WILL BE WEAK OR NIL ESPECIALLY EAST IN
LINGERING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...BUT AGAIN IT WILL STILL BE MILD.

MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED OF WEAK SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH AT MIDWEEK
AND THE TIMING OF THE RESULTING LIGHT SHOWER THREAT. BOTH THE GFS
AND EC BRING IT INTO THE PICTURE SOONER THAN BEFORE. THE GFS MOVES
IT STEADILY BUT FAIRLY SLOWLY ACROSS...WHILE THE EC SPLITS IT UP,
SPEEDS THE NORTHERN BRANCH THROUGH QUICKLY, AND SQUASHED THE SOUTHERN
WAVE WITH ROCKIES RIDGING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE WHICH LEANS TO THE GFS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
IN THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY...AFTER STARTING THEM WEDNESDAY WEST.
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND MILD...AND IF THE EC IS RIGHT...THURSDAY COULD
BE SO ALSO. EITHER WAY...THE CONTINUATION OF A WARM FALL PATTERN IS
NOT IN DOUBT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BROAD STRATUS DECKS CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE BULK OF THE
REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A
SMALL AND NARROW POCKET OF CLEARING IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY
REACH THE KSUX AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTH SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING THE STRATUS TO LIFT AND EXIT THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS CLEARING SHOULD REACH THE I29 CORRIDOR
AROUND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KABR 181124 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS DECK IS HANGING IN STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
AND HAS ACTUALLY MOVED BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS DEALING WITH THESE
CLOUDS...AND EXACTLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO DEPART/BREAK UP.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THEY WILL BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA SO HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT. SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THOUGH THAT THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE QUITE THIN...SO THEY
MAY BE ABLE TO BURN OFF A BIT EASIER THAN IF THE DECK WAS THICKER.
REGARDLESS...STILL BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA...BUT HAVE TRENDED THINGS
TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS 850
MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...LIKELY RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY. AS THE TROUGH/FRONT
SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEN BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK OVER THE PLAINS.

H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HANG IN TIGHT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. IFR VSBYS IN FOG
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AT KPIR AS WELL. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THE SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS PUSHES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 181124 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS DECK IS HANGING IN STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
AND HAS ACTUALLY MOVED BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS DEALING WITH THESE
CLOUDS...AND EXACTLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO DEPART/BREAK UP.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THEY WILL BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA SO HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT. SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THOUGH THAT THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE QUITE THIN...SO THEY
MAY BE ABLE TO BURN OFF A BIT EASIER THAN IF THE DECK WAS THICKER.
REGARDLESS...STILL BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA...BUT HAVE TRENDED THINGS
TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS 850
MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...LIKELY RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY. AS THE TROUGH/FRONT
SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEN BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK OVER THE PLAINS.

H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HANG IN TIGHT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. IFR VSBYS IN FOG
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AT KPIR AS WELL. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THE SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS PUSHES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 181124 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS DECK IS HANGING IN STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
AND HAS ACTUALLY MOVED BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS DEALING WITH THESE
CLOUDS...AND EXACTLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO DEPART/BREAK UP.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THEY WILL BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA SO HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT. SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THOUGH THAT THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE QUITE THIN...SO THEY
MAY BE ABLE TO BURN OFF A BIT EASIER THAN IF THE DECK WAS THICKER.
REGARDLESS...STILL BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA...BUT HAVE TRENDED THINGS
TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS 850
MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...LIKELY RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY. AS THE TROUGH/FRONT
SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEN BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK OVER THE PLAINS.

H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HANG IN TIGHT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. IFR VSBYS IN FOG
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AT KPIR AS WELL. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THE SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS PUSHES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KUNR 180921
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
321 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO NORTHWEST SD FROM THE EAST.
SHORT-TERM MODELS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FOG AROUND THE FAITH
AND BUFFALO AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING...SO ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
GRIDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER THERE. OBS INDICATE SOME LESS
DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE LOW-LYING AREAS AROUND THE PINE
RIDGE/CHADRON REGION...BUT WILL LEAVE FOG MENTION THERE OUT OF GRIDS
FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA...OTHER THAN SOME
CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO
THE EAST...WINDS ARE SOUTHEASTERLY. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE
30S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S. RETURN FLOW INCREASES AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE SURFACE HIGH...AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AROUND 15 KTS.

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE TONIGHT...AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH 60S IN THE BLACK HILLS.


&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY AS TROF
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

IFR VSBY POSSIBLE WITH PATCHY FOG OVER NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL SD
EARLY...WITH FOG DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 180921
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
321 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO NORTHWEST SD FROM THE EAST.
SHORT-TERM MODELS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FOG AROUND THE FAITH
AND BUFFALO AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING...SO ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
GRIDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER THERE. OBS INDICATE SOME LESS
DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE LOW-LYING AREAS AROUND THE PINE
RIDGE/CHADRON REGION...BUT WILL LEAVE FOG MENTION THERE OUT OF GRIDS
FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA...OTHER THAN SOME
CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO
THE EAST...WINDS ARE SOUTHEASTERLY. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE
30S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S. RETURN FLOW INCREASES AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE SURFACE HIGH...AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AROUND 15 KTS.

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE TONIGHT...AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH 60S IN THE BLACK HILLS.


&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY AS TROF
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

IFR VSBY POSSIBLE WITH PATCHY FOG OVER NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL SD
EARLY...WITH FOG DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 180921
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
321 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO NORTHWEST SD FROM THE EAST.
SHORT-TERM MODELS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FOG AROUND THE FAITH
AND BUFFALO AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING...SO ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
GRIDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER THERE. OBS INDICATE SOME LESS
DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE LOW-LYING AREAS AROUND THE PINE
RIDGE/CHADRON REGION...BUT WILL LEAVE FOG MENTION THERE OUT OF GRIDS
FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA...OTHER THAN SOME
CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO
THE EAST...WINDS ARE SOUTHEASTERLY. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE
30S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S. RETURN FLOW INCREASES AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE SURFACE HIGH...AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AROUND 15 KTS.

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE TONIGHT...AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH 60S IN THE BLACK HILLS.


&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY AS TROF
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

IFR VSBY POSSIBLE WITH PATCHY FOG OVER NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL SD
EARLY...WITH FOG DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 180921
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
321 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO NORTHWEST SD FROM THE EAST.
SHORT-TERM MODELS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FOG AROUND THE FAITH
AND BUFFALO AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING...SO ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
GRIDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER THERE. OBS INDICATE SOME LESS
DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE LOW-LYING AREAS AROUND THE PINE
RIDGE/CHADRON REGION...BUT WILL LEAVE FOG MENTION THERE OUT OF GRIDS
FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA...OTHER THAN SOME
CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO
THE EAST...WINDS ARE SOUTHEASTERLY. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE
30S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S. RETURN FLOW INCREASES AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE SURFACE HIGH...AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AROUND 15 KTS.

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE TONIGHT...AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH 60S IN THE BLACK HILLS.


&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY AS TROF
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

IFR VSBY POSSIBLE WITH PATCHY FOG OVER NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL SD
EARLY...WITH FOG DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7






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