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000
FXUS63 KUNR 292013
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
213 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MONSOON FLOW WITH
MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE
RIDGE PERIPHERY. ONE SUCH IMPULSE IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY
EXITING THE FAR SW FA...WITH SHRA CHANCES WANING THROUGH EVENING.
MEANWHILE...COMPACT WEAK VORT LOBES ARE EVIDENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH...ONE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SCT SHRA/TS
OVER NORTHERN ND. THESE FEATURES WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS...SUPPORTING A WEAK LL PRESSURE RESPONSE AND
INCREASED CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IN THEIR VICINITY.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH AWAY FROM
THE WESTERN FA. SOME LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING THERE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND SOME 40S
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK VORT LOBES WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL
SD WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET ALOFT. MODEL MOMENTUM AND
PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATE A WEAK LL RESPONSE WITH ENSUING CONVERGENCE
OVER THE SE FA. THIS COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TS OVER THE FAR SE...A SIGNAL THAT HAS BEEN
HINTED AT IN THE HIRES MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. HAVE DECIDE
TO ADD A SMALL POP SCENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE WED MORNING...BUT OPTED
FOR A MENTION CLOSER TO PEAK HEATING. LINGERING MOISTURE WITH MID
RIDGE CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHRA OVER THE CENTRAL
ANS SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRECLUDES A POP/WX MENTION THERE. BUMPED TEMPS UP IN THE EAST GIVEN
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS...ESP AROUND THE PHP-ICR AREA. A FEW
LINGERING SHRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER SCNTRL AREAS INTO THE EVENING IF
ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WED NIGHT ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW TRANSITION
TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WAVES MAY PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA OVER NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD
THROUGH WILL END THIS EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
PRECIPITATION. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KUNR 292013
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
213 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MONSOON FLOW WITH
MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE
RIDGE PERIPHERY. ONE SUCH IMPULSE IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY
EXITING THE FAR SW FA...WITH SHRA CHANCES WANING THROUGH EVENING.
MEANWHILE...COMPACT WEAK VORT LOBES ARE EVIDENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH...ONE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SCT SHRA/TS
OVER NORTHERN ND. THESE FEATURES WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS...SUPPORTING A WEAK LL PRESSURE RESPONSE AND
INCREASED CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IN THEIR VICINITY.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH AWAY FROM
THE WESTERN FA. SOME LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING THERE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND SOME 40S
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK VORT LOBES WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL
SD WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET ALOFT. MODEL MOMENTUM AND
PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATE A WEAK LL RESPONSE WITH ENSUING CONVERGENCE
OVER THE SE FA. THIS COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TS OVER THE FAR SE...A SIGNAL THAT HAS BEEN
HINTED AT IN THE HIRES MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. HAVE DECIDE
TO ADD A SMALL POP SCENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE WED MORNING...BUT OPTED
FOR A MENTION CLOSER TO PEAK HEATING. LINGERING MOISTURE WITH MID
RIDGE CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHRA OVER THE CENTRAL
ANS SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRECLUDES A POP/WX MENTION THERE. BUMPED TEMPS UP IN THE EAST GIVEN
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS...ESP AROUND THE PHP-ICR AREA. A FEW
LINGERING SHRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER SCNTRL AREAS INTO THE EVENING IF
ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WED NIGHT ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW TRANSITION
TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WAVES MAY PUSH
THROUGH THE FLOW SLOWLY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...AND BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA OVER NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD
THROUGH WILL END THIS EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
PRECIPITATION. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13






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000
FXUS63 KABR 292003
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
303 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE RECENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK BEFORE DE-AMPLIFYING. DRY AND STABLE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN DRIVER OF WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID...EACH DAY WITH DIABATIC HEATING IN
PLACE...THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME DRY ADIABATIC. BOTH
DAYS WE END UP WITH ELEVATED SKINNY CAPE IN THE SOUNDING PROFILE
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. THE HI RES MODELS DO
INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA.
AND A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN
CWA TNT...SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR TNT...AND AGAIN WED
AFTN TO MATCH UP WITH WESTERN/NORTHERN NEIGHBORS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. SAME OR SIMILAR COULD HAPPEN BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
WE GRADUALLY GET WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...FEATURING A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEAST...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
GRADUALLY THE NORTHEAST LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE FURTHER
NORTHEAST...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE GETS DAMPENED AND ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL MARK THE RETURN OF POPS INTO THE
FORECAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALSO SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH SOME LARGE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
SHOW UP IN THE THERMAL PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. SO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES OVER THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. AFTERNOON CU WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 292003
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
303 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE RECENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK BEFORE DE-AMPLIFYING. DRY AND STABLE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN DRIVER OF WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID...EACH DAY WITH DIABATIC HEATING IN
PLACE...THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME DRY ADIABATIC. BOTH
DAYS WE END UP WITH ELEVATED SKINNY CAPE IN THE SOUNDING PROFILE
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. THE HI RES MODELS DO
INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA.
AND A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN
CWA TNT...SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR TNT...AND AGAIN WED
AFTN TO MATCH UP WITH WESTERN/NORTHERN NEIGHBORS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. SAME OR SIMILAR COULD HAPPEN BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
WE GRADUALLY GET WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...FEATURING A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEAST...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
GRADUALLY THE NORTHEAST LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE FURTHER
NORTHEAST...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE GETS DAMPENED AND ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL MARK THE RETURN OF POPS INTO THE
FORECAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALSO SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH SOME LARGE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
SHOW UP IN THE THERMAL PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. SO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES OVER THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. AFTERNOON CU WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 292003
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
303 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE RECENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK BEFORE DE-AMPLIFYING. DRY AND STABLE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN DRIVER OF WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID...EACH DAY WITH DIABATIC HEATING IN
PLACE...THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME DRY ADIABATIC. BOTH
DAYS WE END UP WITH ELEVATED SKINNY CAPE IN THE SOUNDING PROFILE
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. THE HI RES MODELS DO
INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA.
AND A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN
CWA TNT...SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR TNT...AND AGAIN WED
AFTN TO MATCH UP WITH WESTERN/NORTHERN NEIGHBORS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. SAME OR SIMILAR COULD HAPPEN BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
WE GRADUALLY GET WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...FEATURING A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEAST...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
GRADUALLY THE NORTHEAST LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE FURTHER
NORTHEAST...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE GETS DAMPENED AND ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL MARK THE RETURN OF POPS INTO THE
FORECAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALSO SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH SOME LARGE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
SHOW UP IN THE THERMAL PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. SO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES OVER THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. AFTERNOON CU WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 292003
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
303 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE RECENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK BEFORE DE-AMPLIFYING. DRY AND STABLE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN DRIVER OF WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID...EACH DAY WITH DIABATIC HEATING IN
PLACE...THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME DRY ADIABATIC. BOTH
DAYS WE END UP WITH ELEVATED SKINNY CAPE IN THE SOUNDING PROFILE
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. THE HI RES MODELS DO
INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA.
AND A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN
CWA TNT...SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR TNT...AND AGAIN WED
AFTN TO MATCH UP WITH WESTERN/NORTHERN NEIGHBORS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. SAME OR SIMILAR COULD HAPPEN BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
WE GRADUALLY GET WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...FEATURING A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEAST...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
GRADUALLY THE NORTHEAST LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE FURTHER
NORTHEAST...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE GETS DAMPENED AND ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL MARK THE RETURN OF POPS INTO THE
FORECAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALSO SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH SOME LARGE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
SHOW UP IN THE THERMAL PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. SO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES OVER THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. AFTERNOON CU WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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000
FXUS63 KFSD 291951
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
251 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET...SETTING UP ANOTHER
MAINLY CLEAR...CALM AND COOL NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH LOWS ON
THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE...GENERALLY BETWEEN 50 AND 55. WILL HAVE A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WEAK THETAE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING AN INCREASE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO AREAS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER LATE TONIGHT...WITH THIS AREA ALSO SEEING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW. SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS ALONG WITH THE NAM
AND SREF SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF WEST OF THE JAMES TOMORROW WITH THIS
FEATURE. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW THIN AND MINIMAL CAPE...WITH A
CAP ABOVE 600 MB. THUS DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MORE THAN
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
ELSEWHERE...WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...CU FIELD SHOULD BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN TODAY.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT A 1C ACROSS THE BOARD
TOMORROW...MEANING WE WILL PROBABLY END UP AROUND 2 TO MAYBE 3
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 77 AND 82. AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS ...SHOULD BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A STRETCH OF PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A SLOW UPWARD TREND.  FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHC POP OVER THE FAR
WEST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
DROPPING SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DESPITE RATHER POOR
MOISTURE...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

THE  PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SEVERAL WAVES
OF ENERGY SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY ALL OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE VERY
LIGHT ECHOES.  GENERALLY THOUGH...CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AND
PLACEMENT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY POPS ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO CLIMB...ALBEIT SLOWLY...AND WE`LL STILL HAVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
A DEGREE OR TWO SHORT OF NORMALS.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO
RISE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.  THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY FORMS NORTH OF THE CWA.  RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GFS/ECMWF DIFFERING SLIGHTLY ON THE
LOCATION OF THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY.  SEVERAL DISORGANIZED WAVES OF
ENERGY ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND DEPENDING
ON THEIR TRACK...WE COULD HAVE OUR FIRST SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAINS IN
SOME TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. JUST SOME DIURNAL
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU BASED AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FEET THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
OUT WEST. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...CHENARD







000
FXUS63 KFSD 291951
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
251 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET...SETTING UP ANOTHER
MAINLY CLEAR...CALM AND COOL NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH LOWS ON
THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE...GENERALLY BETWEEN 50 AND 55. WILL HAVE A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WEAK THETAE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING AN INCREASE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO AREAS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER LATE TONIGHT...WITH THIS AREA ALSO SEEING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW. SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS ALONG WITH THE NAM
AND SREF SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF WEST OF THE JAMES TOMORROW WITH THIS
FEATURE. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW THIN AND MINIMAL CAPE...WITH A
CAP ABOVE 600 MB. THUS DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MORE THAN
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
ELSEWHERE...WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...CU FIELD SHOULD BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN TODAY.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT A 1C ACROSS THE BOARD
TOMORROW...MEANING WE WILL PROBABLY END UP AROUND 2 TO MAYBE 3
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 77 AND 82. AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS ...SHOULD BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A STRETCH OF PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A SLOW UPWARD TREND.  FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHC POP OVER THE FAR
WEST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
DROPPING SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DESPITE RATHER POOR
MOISTURE...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

THE  PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SEVERAL WAVES
OF ENERGY SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY ALL OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE VERY
LIGHT ECHOES.  GENERALLY THOUGH...CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AND
PLACEMENT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY POPS ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO CLIMB...ALBEIT SLOWLY...AND WE`LL STILL HAVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
A DEGREE OR TWO SHORT OF NORMALS.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO
RISE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.  THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY FORMS NORTH OF THE CWA.  RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GFS/ECMWF DIFFERING SLIGHTLY ON THE
LOCATION OF THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY.  SEVERAL DISORGANIZED WAVES OF
ENERGY ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND DEPENDING
ON THEIR TRACK...WE COULD HAVE OUR FIRST SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAINS IN
SOME TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. JUST SOME DIURNAL
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU BASED AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FEET THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
OUT WEST. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...CHENARD






000
FXUS63 KABR 291727 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS OKAY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED BEFORE 4PM
PACKAGE.

SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY
GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT.
DESPITE A LACK OF ANY NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVES...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY...THOUGH WITH DRY LOW
LEVELS WE ARE WILL ONLY SEE A FEW WEAK CU AND POSSIBLY A
SPRINKLE...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MODELS SUGGEST A
SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH
FINALLY WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THUS...THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE GFS
AND EC BOTH SHOW WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OVER THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
PERIOD. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. AFTERNOON CU WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KUNR 291725
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1125 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG
A NW-SE ORIENTED THETA-E RIDGE LOCATED FROM NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK IMPULSE ROUNDS THE RIDGE.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS SYNPOTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND HAVE
LOWERED PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
EXPECTATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THAT REGION INTO THE
EARLY AFTN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS. WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.
HOWEVER BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE YIELDS TO AN ONSLAUGHT OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND WEAK SYSTEMS ARE ALLOWED INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HENCE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS
BEEN INCREASED FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST WY
AND SOUTHWEST SD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KUNR 291725
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1125 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG
A NW-SE ORIENTED THETA-E RIDGE LOCATED FROM NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK IMPULSE ROUNDS THE RIDGE.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS SYNPOTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND HAVE
LOWERED PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
EXPECTATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THAT REGION INTO THE
EARLY AFTN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS. WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.
HOWEVER BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE YIELDS TO AN ONSLAUGHT OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND WEAK SYSTEMS ARE ALLOWED INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HENCE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS
BEEN INCREASED FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST WY
AND SOUTHWEST SD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KFSD 291720
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1220 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW RANDOM
PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS IN THE JAMES VALLEY...AND SOME RAGGED CIRRUS
ROTATING INTO THE REGION ON THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. ALL BUT ASSURED TO SEE ADDITIONAL CUMULUS
DEVELOP WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE TODAY...BUT LAYER IS QUITE THIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO QUICK FORMATION AND A FASTER THAN
TYPICAL ENTRAINMENT AIDED DISSIPATION ARE PROBABLY IN ORDER.
TEMPS WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY BASED ON TRENDS AT
850/925 HPA...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED.

THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN SEVERAL SOLUTIONS
WHICH PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT...AND A ROGUE SOLUTION OR TWO THAT SUGGEST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD WANDER TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CWA
LATER IN THE NIGHT. WITH LARGER SCALE LESS THAN HELPFUL TO SUSTAINED
LIFT...HAVE CHOSEN TO IGNORE ANY THREAT FOR NOW...AND JUST PUT A FEW
MORE CLOUDS INTO THE WEST AFTER EVENING CLEARING. LOWS UNDER LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LIKELY AGAIN TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT LEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WELL AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
ALLOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
WITH COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REMAINING THE NORM. WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY LIGHT
WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH AND OFTEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
THE SURFACE. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL POP UP WITH THE
HEAT OF THE DAY...HOWEVER AM NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH VERY WEAK FORCING AND DRY LOWER LEVELS. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE PICKING UP ON VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATE
WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY MEASURABLE REACHING THE GROUND IS LOW
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION.

WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...MIXING SHOULD BE DECENT ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE FOLLOWING SOME OF THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT NOT
MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...PERHAPS APPROACHING 90 IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD BY THE WEEKEND.

MODELS ARE NOW COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN FINALLY
BREAKING DOWN THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT
MORE BULLISH IN DRIVING A TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AND MONDAY WITH A TRAILING FRONT BECOMING STALLED
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS
MUCH SLOWER IN PROGRESSION...THEREFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
LOW END AT THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. JUST SOME DIURNAL
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU BASED AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FEET THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
OUT WEST. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD







000
FXUS63 KFSD 291720
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1220 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW RANDOM
PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS IN THE JAMES VALLEY...AND SOME RAGGED CIRRUS
ROTATING INTO THE REGION ON THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. ALL BUT ASSURED TO SEE ADDITIONAL CUMULUS
DEVELOP WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE TODAY...BUT LAYER IS QUITE THIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO QUICK FORMATION AND A FASTER THAN
TYPICAL ENTRAINMENT AIDED DISSIPATION ARE PROBABLY IN ORDER.
TEMPS WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY BASED ON TRENDS AT
850/925 HPA...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED.

THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN SEVERAL SOLUTIONS
WHICH PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT...AND A ROGUE SOLUTION OR TWO THAT SUGGEST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD WANDER TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CWA
LATER IN THE NIGHT. WITH LARGER SCALE LESS THAN HELPFUL TO SUSTAINED
LIFT...HAVE CHOSEN TO IGNORE ANY THREAT FOR NOW...AND JUST PUT A FEW
MORE CLOUDS INTO THE WEST AFTER EVENING CLEARING. LOWS UNDER LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LIKELY AGAIN TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT LEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WELL AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
ALLOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
WITH COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REMAINING THE NORM. WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY LIGHT
WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH AND OFTEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
THE SURFACE. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL POP UP WITH THE
HEAT OF THE DAY...HOWEVER AM NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH VERY WEAK FORCING AND DRY LOWER LEVELS. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE PICKING UP ON VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATE
WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY MEASURABLE REACHING THE GROUND IS LOW
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION.

WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...MIXING SHOULD BE DECENT ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE FOLLOWING SOME OF THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT NOT
MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...PERHAPS APPROACHING 90 IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD BY THE WEEKEND.

MODELS ARE NOW COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN FINALLY
BREAKING DOWN THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT
MORE BULLISH IN DRIVING A TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AND MONDAY WITH A TRAILING FRONT BECOMING STALLED
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS
MUCH SLOWER IN PROGRESSION...THEREFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
LOW END AT THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. JUST SOME DIURNAL
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU BASED AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FEET THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
OUT WEST. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD






000
FXUS63 KABR 291519 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1019 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS OKAY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED BEFORE 4PM
PACKAGE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT.
DESPITE A LACK OF ANY NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVES...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY...THOUGH WITH DRY LOW
LEVELS WE ARE WILL ONLY SEE A FEW WEAK CU AND POSSIBLY A
SPRINKLE...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MODELS SUGGEST A
SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH
FINALLY WEAKENS/DE-AMPLIFIES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THUS...THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE GFS
AND EC BOTH SHOW WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OVER THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
PERIOD. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG AND STRATUS AT ABR AND ATY EARLY...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL LOCATIONS
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 291146 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
646 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY

GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT.
DESPITE A LACK OF ANY NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVES...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY...THOUGH WITH DRY LOW
LEVELS WE ARE WILL ONLY SEE A FEW WEAK CU AND POSSIBLY A
SPRINKLE...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MODELS SUGGEST A
SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH
FINALLY WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THUS...THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE GFS
AND EC BOTH SHOW WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OVER THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
PERIOD. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE CWA.




&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG AND STRATUS AT ABR AND ATY EARLY...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL LOCATIONS
WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 291146 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
646 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY

GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT.
DESPITE A LACK OF ANY NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVES...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY...THOUGH WITH DRY LOW
LEVELS WE ARE WILL ONLY SEE A FEW WEAK CU AND POSSIBLY A
SPRINKLE...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MODELS SUGGEST A
SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH
FINALLY WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THUS...THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE GFS
AND EC BOTH SHOW WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OVER THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
PERIOD. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE CWA.




&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG AND STRATUS AT ABR AND ATY EARLY...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL LOCATIONS
WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 291138
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
638 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW RANDOM
PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS IN THE JAMES VALLEY...AND SOME RAGGED CIRRUS
ROTATING INTO THE REGION ON THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. ALL BUT ASSURED TO SEE ADDITIONAL CUMULUS
DEVELOP WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE TODAY...BUT LAYER IS QUITE THIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO QUICK FORMATION AND A FASTER THAN
TYPICAL ENTRAINMENT AIDED DISSIPATION ARE PROBABLY IN ORDER.
TEMPS WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY BASED ON TRENDS AT
850/925 HPA...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED.

THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN SEVERAL SOLUTIONS
WHICH PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT...AND A ROGUE SOLUTION OR TWO THAT SUGGEST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD WANDER TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CWA
LATER IN THE NIGHT. WITH LARGER SCALE LESS THAN HELPFUL TO SUSTAINED
LIFT...HAVE CHOSEN TO IGNORE ANY THREAT FOR NOW...AND JUST PUT A FEW
MORE CLOUDS INTO THE WEST AFTER EVENING CLEARING. LOWS UNDER LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LIKELY AGAIN TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT LEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WELL AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
ALLOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
WITH COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REMAINING THE NORM. WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY LIGHT
WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH AND OFTEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
THE SURFACE. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL POP UP WITH THE
HEAT OF THE DAY...HOWEVER AM NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH VERY WEAK FORCING AND DRY LOWER LEVELS. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE PICKING UP ON VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATE
WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY MEASURABLE REACHING THE GROUND IS LOW
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION.

WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...MIXING SHOULD BE DECENT ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE FOLLOWING SOME OF THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT NOT
MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...PERHAPS APPROACHING 90 IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD BY THE WEEKEND.

MODELS ARE NOW COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN FINALLY
BREAKING DOWN THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT
MORE BULLISH IN DRIVING A TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AND MONDAY WITH A TRAILING FRONT BECOMING STALLED
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS
MUCH SLOWER IN PROGRESSION...THEREFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
LOW END AT THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

KFSD AND KHON TAF LOCATIONS WILL FIND SOME VERY SHALLOW FOG
DISSIPATING BY 13Z...BUT WEBCAMS INDICATE THIS WILL NOT LIMIT
VISIBILITY OVER THE NECESSARY PORTION OF THE HORIZON CIRCLE TO PUT
A REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THE TAFS. SHALLOW FOG MAY REPEAT FOR ALL
LOCATIONS TOWARD 12Z WED...BUT WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 291138
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
638 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW RANDOM
PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS IN THE JAMES VALLEY...AND SOME RAGGED CIRRUS
ROTATING INTO THE REGION ON THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. ALL BUT ASSURED TO SEE ADDITIONAL CUMULUS
DEVELOP WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE TODAY...BUT LAYER IS QUITE THIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO QUICK FORMATION AND A FASTER THAN
TYPICAL ENTRAINMENT AIDED DISSIPATION ARE PROBABLY IN ORDER.
TEMPS WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY BASED ON TRENDS AT
850/925 HPA...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED.

THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN SEVERAL SOLUTIONS
WHICH PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT...AND A ROGUE SOLUTION OR TWO THAT SUGGEST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD WANDER TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CWA
LATER IN THE NIGHT. WITH LARGER SCALE LESS THAN HELPFUL TO SUSTAINED
LIFT...HAVE CHOSEN TO IGNORE ANY THREAT FOR NOW...AND JUST PUT A FEW
MORE CLOUDS INTO THE WEST AFTER EVENING CLEARING. LOWS UNDER LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LIKELY AGAIN TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT LEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WELL AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
ALLOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
WITH COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REMAINING THE NORM. WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY LIGHT
WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH AND OFTEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
THE SURFACE. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL POP UP WITH THE
HEAT OF THE DAY...HOWEVER AM NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH VERY WEAK FORCING AND DRY LOWER LEVELS. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE PICKING UP ON VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATE
WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY MEASURABLE REACHING THE GROUND IS LOW
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION.

WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...MIXING SHOULD BE DECENT ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE FOLLOWING SOME OF THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT NOT
MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...PERHAPS APPROACHING 90 IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD BY THE WEEKEND.

MODELS ARE NOW COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN FINALLY
BREAKING DOWN THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT
MORE BULLISH IN DRIVING A TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AND MONDAY WITH A TRAILING FRONT BECOMING STALLED
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS
MUCH SLOWER IN PROGRESSION...THEREFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
LOW END AT THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

KFSD AND KHON TAF LOCATIONS WILL FIND SOME VERY SHALLOW FOG
DISSIPATING BY 13Z...BUT WEBCAMS INDICATE THIS WILL NOT LIMIT
VISIBILITY OVER THE NECESSARY PORTION OF THE HORIZON CIRCLE TO PUT
A REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THE TAFS. SHALLOW FOG MAY REPEAT FOR ALL
LOCATIONS TOWARD 12Z WED...BUT WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 291138
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
638 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW RANDOM
PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS IN THE JAMES VALLEY...AND SOME RAGGED CIRRUS
ROTATING INTO THE REGION ON THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. ALL BUT ASSURED TO SEE ADDITIONAL CUMULUS
DEVELOP WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE TODAY...BUT LAYER IS QUITE THIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO QUICK FORMATION AND A FASTER THAN
TYPICAL ENTRAINMENT AIDED DISSIPATION ARE PROBABLY IN ORDER.
TEMPS WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY BASED ON TRENDS AT
850/925 HPA...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED.

THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN SEVERAL SOLUTIONS
WHICH PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT...AND A ROGUE SOLUTION OR TWO THAT SUGGEST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD WANDER TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CWA
LATER IN THE NIGHT. WITH LARGER SCALE LESS THAN HELPFUL TO SUSTAINED
LIFT...HAVE CHOSEN TO IGNORE ANY THREAT FOR NOW...AND JUST PUT A FEW
MORE CLOUDS INTO THE WEST AFTER EVENING CLEARING. LOWS UNDER LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LIKELY AGAIN TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT LEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WELL AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
ALLOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
WITH COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REMAINING THE NORM. WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY LIGHT
WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH AND OFTEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
THE SURFACE. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL POP UP WITH THE
HEAT OF THE DAY...HOWEVER AM NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH VERY WEAK FORCING AND DRY LOWER LEVELS. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE PICKING UP ON VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATE
WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY MEASURABLE REACHING THE GROUND IS LOW
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION.

WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...MIXING SHOULD BE DECENT ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE FOLLOWING SOME OF THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT NOT
MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...PERHAPS APPROACHING 90 IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD BY THE WEEKEND.

MODELS ARE NOW COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN FINALLY
BREAKING DOWN THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT
MORE BULLISH IN DRIVING A TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AND MONDAY WITH A TRAILING FRONT BECOMING STALLED
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS
MUCH SLOWER IN PROGRESSION...THEREFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
LOW END AT THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

KFSD AND KHON TAF LOCATIONS WILL FIND SOME VERY SHALLOW FOG
DISSIPATING BY 13Z...BUT WEBCAMS INDICATE THIS WILL NOT LIMIT
VISIBILITY OVER THE NECESSARY PORTION OF THE HORIZON CIRCLE TO PUT
A REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THE TAFS. SHALLOW FOG MAY REPEAT FOR ALL
LOCATIONS TOWARD 12Z WED...BUT WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 291138
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
638 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW RANDOM
PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS IN THE JAMES VALLEY...AND SOME RAGGED CIRRUS
ROTATING INTO THE REGION ON THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. ALL BUT ASSURED TO SEE ADDITIONAL CUMULUS
DEVELOP WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE TODAY...BUT LAYER IS QUITE THIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO QUICK FORMATION AND A FASTER THAN
TYPICAL ENTRAINMENT AIDED DISSIPATION ARE PROBABLY IN ORDER.
TEMPS WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY BASED ON TRENDS AT
850/925 HPA...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED.

THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN SEVERAL SOLUTIONS
WHICH PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT...AND A ROGUE SOLUTION OR TWO THAT SUGGEST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD WANDER TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CWA
LATER IN THE NIGHT. WITH LARGER SCALE LESS THAN HELPFUL TO SUSTAINED
LIFT...HAVE CHOSEN TO IGNORE ANY THREAT FOR NOW...AND JUST PUT A FEW
MORE CLOUDS INTO THE WEST AFTER EVENING CLEARING. LOWS UNDER LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LIKELY AGAIN TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT LEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WELL AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
ALLOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
WITH COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REMAINING THE NORM. WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY LIGHT
WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH AND OFTEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
THE SURFACE. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL POP UP WITH THE
HEAT OF THE DAY...HOWEVER AM NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH VERY WEAK FORCING AND DRY LOWER LEVELS. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE PICKING UP ON VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATE
WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY MEASURABLE REACHING THE GROUND IS LOW
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION.

WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...MIXING SHOULD BE DECENT ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE FOLLOWING SOME OF THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT NOT
MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...PERHAPS APPROACHING 90 IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD BY THE WEEKEND.

MODELS ARE NOW COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN FINALLY
BREAKING DOWN THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT
MORE BULLISH IN DRIVING A TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AND MONDAY WITH A TRAILING FRONT BECOMING STALLED
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS
MUCH SLOWER IN PROGRESSION...THEREFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
LOW END AT THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

KFSD AND KHON TAF LOCATIONS WILL FIND SOME VERY SHALLOW FOG
DISSIPATING BY 13Z...BUT WEBCAMS INDICATE THIS WILL NOT LIMIT
VISIBILITY OVER THE NECESSARY PORTION OF THE HORIZON CIRCLE TO PUT
A REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THE TAFS. SHALLOW FOG MAY REPEAT FOR ALL
LOCATIONS TOWARD 12Z WED...BUT WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 291113
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
513 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG
A NW-SE ORIENTED THETA-E RIDGE LOCATED FROM NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK IMPULSE ROUNDS THE RIDGE.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS SYNPOTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND HAVE
LOWERED PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
EXPECTATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THAT REGION INTO THE
EARLY AFTN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS. WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.
HOWEVER BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE YIELDS TO AN ONSLAUGHT OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND WEAK SYSTEMS ARE ALLOWED INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HENCE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS
BEEN INCREASED FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED -TSRA OVER NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER






000
FXUS63 KUNR 291113
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
513 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG
A NW-SE ORIENTED THETA-E RIDGE LOCATED FROM NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK IMPULSE ROUNDS THE RIDGE.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS SYNPOTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND HAVE
LOWERED PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
EXPECTATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THAT REGION INTO THE
EARLY AFTN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS. WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.
HOWEVER BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE YIELDS TO AN ONSLAUGHT OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND WEAK SYSTEMS ARE ALLOWED INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HENCE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS
BEEN INCREASED FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED -TSRA OVER NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS63 KABR 290911
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
411 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY

GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT.
DESPITE A LACK OF ANY NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVES...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY...THOUGH WITH DRY LOW
LEVELS WE ARE WILL ONLY SEE A FEW WEAK CU AND POSSIBLY A
SPRINKLE...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MODELS SUGGEST A
SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH
FINALLY WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THUS...THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE GFS
AND EC BOTH SHOW WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OVER THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
PERIOD. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE CWA.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH VALID
FORECAST TIME. FEW-SCT050 STRATOCU CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 15Z
FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 290911
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
411 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY

GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT.
DESPITE A LACK OF ANY NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVES...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY...THOUGH WITH DRY LOW
LEVELS WE ARE WILL ONLY SEE A FEW WEAK CU AND POSSIBLY A
SPRINKLE...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MODELS SUGGEST A
SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH
FINALLY WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THUS...THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE GFS
AND EC BOTH SHOW WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OVER THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
PERIOD. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE CWA.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH VALID
FORECAST TIME. FEW-SCT050 STRATOCU CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 15Z
FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KUNR 290843
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
243 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG
A NW-SE ORIENTED THETA-E RIDGE LOCATED FROM NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK IMPULSE ROUNDS THE RIDGE.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS SYNPOTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND HAVE
LOWERED PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
EXPECTATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THAT REGION INTO THE
EARLY AFTN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS. WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.
HOWEVER BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE YIELDS TO AN ONSLAUGHT OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND WEAK SYSTEMS ARE ALLOWED INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HENCE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS
BEEN INCREASED FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER






000
FXUS63 KUNR 290843
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
243 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG
A NW-SE ORIENTED THETA-E RIDGE LOCATED FROM NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK IMPULSE ROUNDS THE RIDGE.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS SYNPOTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND HAVE
LOWERED PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
EXPECTATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THAT REGION INTO THE
EARLY AFTN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS. WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.
HOWEVER BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE YIELDS TO AN ONSLAUGHT OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND WEAK SYSTEMS ARE ALLOWED INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HENCE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS
BEEN INCREASED FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS63 KFSD 290839
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
339 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW RANDOM
PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS IN THE JAMES VALLEY...AND SOME RAGGED CIRRUS
ROTATING INTO THE REGION ON THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. ALL BUT ASSURED TO SEE ADDITIONAL CUMULUS
DEVELOP WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE TODAY...BUT LAYER IS QUITE THIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO QUICK FORMATION AND A FASTER THAN
TYPICAL ENTRAINMENT AIDED DISSIPATION ARE PROBABLY IN ORDER.
TEMPS WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY BASED ON TRENDS AT
850/925 HPA...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED.

THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN SEVERAL SOLUTIONS
WHICH PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT...AND A ROGUE SOLUTION OR TWO THAT SUGGEST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD WANDER TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CWA
LATER IN THE NIGHT. WITH LARGER SCALE LESS THAN HELPFUL TO SUSTAINED
LIFT...HAVE CHOSEN TO IGNORE ANY THREAT FOR NOW...AND JUST PUT A FEW
MORE CLOUDS INTO THE WEST AFTER EVENING CLEARING. LOWS UNDER LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LIKELY AGAIN TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT LEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WELL AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
ALLOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
WITH COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REMAINING THE NORM. WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY LIGHT
WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH AND OFTEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
THE SURFACE. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL POP UP WITH THE
HEAT OF THE DAY...HOWEVER AM NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH VERY WEAK FORCING AND DRY LOWER LEVELS. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE PICKING UP ON VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATE
WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY MEASURABLE REACHING THE GROUND IS LOW
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION.

WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...MIXING SHOULD BE DECENT ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE FOLLOWING SOME OF THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT NOT
MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...PERHAPS APPROACHING 90 IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD BY THE WEEKEND.

MODELS ARE NOW COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN FINALLY
BREAKING DOWN THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT
MORE BULLISH IN DRIVING A TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AND MONDAY WITH A TRAILING FRONT BECOMING STALLED
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS
MUCH SLOWER IN PROGRESSION...THEREFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
LOW END AT THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS AT OR
BELOW 10KT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH







000
FXUS63 KFSD 290839
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
339 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW RANDOM
PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS IN THE JAMES VALLEY...AND SOME RAGGED CIRRUS
ROTATING INTO THE REGION ON THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. ALL BUT ASSURED TO SEE ADDITIONAL CUMULUS
DEVELOP WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE TODAY...BUT LAYER IS QUITE THIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO QUICK FORMATION AND A FASTER THAN
TYPICAL ENTRAINMENT AIDED DISSIPATION ARE PROBABLY IN ORDER.
TEMPS WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY BASED ON TRENDS AT
850/925 HPA...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED.

THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN SEVERAL SOLUTIONS
WHICH PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT...AND A ROGUE SOLUTION OR TWO THAT SUGGEST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD WANDER TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CWA
LATER IN THE NIGHT. WITH LARGER SCALE LESS THAN HELPFUL TO SUSTAINED
LIFT...HAVE CHOSEN TO IGNORE ANY THREAT FOR NOW...AND JUST PUT A FEW
MORE CLOUDS INTO THE WEST AFTER EVENING CLEARING. LOWS UNDER LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LIKELY AGAIN TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT LEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WELL AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
ALLOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
WITH COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REMAINING THE NORM. WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY LIGHT
WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH AND OFTEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
THE SURFACE. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL POP UP WITH THE
HEAT OF THE DAY...HOWEVER AM NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH VERY WEAK FORCING AND DRY LOWER LEVELS. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE PICKING UP ON VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATE
WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY MEASURABLE REACHING THE GROUND IS LOW
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION.

WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...MIXING SHOULD BE DECENT ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE FOLLOWING SOME OF THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT NOT
MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...PERHAPS APPROACHING 90 IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD BY THE WEEKEND.

MODELS ARE NOW COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN FINALLY
BREAKING DOWN THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT
MORE BULLISH IN DRIVING A TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AND MONDAY WITH A TRAILING FRONT BECOMING STALLED
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS
MUCH SLOWER IN PROGRESSION...THEREFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
LOW END AT THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS AT OR
BELOW 10KT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH







000
FXUS63 KFSD 290839
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
339 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW RANDOM
PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS IN THE JAMES VALLEY...AND SOME RAGGED CIRRUS
ROTATING INTO THE REGION ON THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. ALL BUT ASSURED TO SEE ADDITIONAL CUMULUS
DEVELOP WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE TODAY...BUT LAYER IS QUITE THIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO QUICK FORMATION AND A FASTER THAN
TYPICAL ENTRAINMENT AIDED DISSIPATION ARE PROBABLY IN ORDER.
TEMPS WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY BASED ON TRENDS AT
850/925 HPA...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED.

THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN SEVERAL SOLUTIONS
WHICH PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT...AND A ROGUE SOLUTION OR TWO THAT SUGGEST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD WANDER TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CWA
LATER IN THE NIGHT. WITH LARGER SCALE LESS THAN HELPFUL TO SUSTAINED
LIFT...HAVE CHOSEN TO IGNORE ANY THREAT FOR NOW...AND JUST PUT A FEW
MORE CLOUDS INTO THE WEST AFTER EVENING CLEARING. LOWS UNDER LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LIKELY AGAIN TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT LEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WELL AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
ALLOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
WITH COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REMAINING THE NORM. WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY LIGHT
WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH AND OFTEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
THE SURFACE. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL POP UP WITH THE
HEAT OF THE DAY...HOWEVER AM NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH VERY WEAK FORCING AND DRY LOWER LEVELS. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE PICKING UP ON VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATE
WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY MEASURABLE REACHING THE GROUND IS LOW
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION.

WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...MIXING SHOULD BE DECENT ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE FOLLOWING SOME OF THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT NOT
MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...PERHAPS APPROACHING 90 IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD BY THE WEEKEND.

MODELS ARE NOW COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN FINALLY
BREAKING DOWN THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT
MORE BULLISH IN DRIVING A TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AND MONDAY WITH A TRAILING FRONT BECOMING STALLED
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS
MUCH SLOWER IN PROGRESSION...THEREFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
LOW END AT THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS AT OR
BELOW 10KT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH







000
FXUS63 KFSD 290839
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
339 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW RANDOM
PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS IN THE JAMES VALLEY...AND SOME RAGGED CIRRUS
ROTATING INTO THE REGION ON THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. ALL BUT ASSURED TO SEE ADDITIONAL CUMULUS
DEVELOP WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE TODAY...BUT LAYER IS QUITE THIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO QUICK FORMATION AND A FASTER THAN
TYPICAL ENTRAINMENT AIDED DISSIPATION ARE PROBABLY IN ORDER.
TEMPS WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY BASED ON TRENDS AT
850/925 HPA...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED.

THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN SEVERAL SOLUTIONS
WHICH PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT...AND A ROGUE SOLUTION OR TWO THAT SUGGEST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD WANDER TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CWA
LATER IN THE NIGHT. WITH LARGER SCALE LESS THAN HELPFUL TO SUSTAINED
LIFT...HAVE CHOSEN TO IGNORE ANY THREAT FOR NOW...AND JUST PUT A FEW
MORE CLOUDS INTO THE WEST AFTER EVENING CLEARING. LOWS UNDER LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LIKELY AGAIN TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT LEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WELL AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
ALLOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
WITH COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REMAINING THE NORM. WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY LIGHT
WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH AND OFTEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
THE SURFACE. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL POP UP WITH THE
HEAT OF THE DAY...HOWEVER AM NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH VERY WEAK FORCING AND DRY LOWER LEVELS. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE PICKING UP ON VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATE
WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY MEASURABLE REACHING THE GROUND IS LOW
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION.

WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...MIXING SHOULD BE DECENT ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE FOLLOWING SOME OF THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT NOT
MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...PERHAPS APPROACHING 90 IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD BY THE WEEKEND.

MODELS ARE NOW COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN FINALLY
BREAKING DOWN THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT
MORE BULLISH IN DRIVING A TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AND MONDAY WITH A TRAILING FRONT BECOMING STALLED
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS
MUCH SLOWER IN PROGRESSION...THEREFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
LOW END AT THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS AT OR
BELOW 10KT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH







000
FXUS63 KABR 290537 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE CURRENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT RANGE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WITH A LACK OF ANY DECENT WAA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
A SLOW RISE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR PCPN...CHANCES STILL LOOK
PRETTY MARGINAL. ALTHOUGH THAT SAID FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DO SHOW STEEP SFC/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
SOME DIABATICALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY ALSO BRINGS ABOUT A WEE BIT MORE SFC BASED CAPE SO WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A WEAK SHOWER/SPKLS WITHIN WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF/GFS. OVERALL THOUGH NOT ENOUGH
OF A THREAT OF MEASURABLE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES AROUND NORMAL. THE GFS IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE
SHOWS SHC TO LOW END CHC POPS ON SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH VALID
FORECAST TIME. FEW-SCT050 STRATOCU CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 15Z
FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 290521
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEING EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS. LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MONSOON FLOW WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE PERIPHERY. ONCE SUCH IMPULSE WILL ADVECT
THROUGH THE SW FA THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING ISOLD
SHRA/TS THERE. OTHERWISE REFLECTED LL FLOW WILL PUSH A SFC TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA TUES...WITH WINDS BACKING NORTHERLY...REINFORCING
COOLER-DRIER FLOW INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY
DISMAL...ESP GIVEN LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH SUPPORT AN IMPULSE
TRACK MORE SW OF THE FA...BREAKING DOWN THE LL THETA-E BUBBLE OVER
THE WESTERN FA FASTER.

TONIGHT...LL THETA-E RIDGE FROM NE WY THROUGH SCNTRL SD WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNDER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WEAK UVM ASSOCIATED WITH
THE IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT ISOLD SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WITH AN EXPECTED
ACCAS PLUME...WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE DEPARTING BACKSIDE JET
STREAK FROM THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH. RETAINED LOW POPS SW
THIRD FOR THIS.

TUESDAY...UPPER IMPULSE WILL TURN SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH
LINGERING LSA AND UVM POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA OVER THE FAR
SW. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE FA GIVEN FURTHER SW
IMPULSE TRACK AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER NORTHERLY DRY PUSH. HAVE
SHAVED POPS BACK. LINGERING LL MOISTURE WITH SW BLACK HILLS LOCAL
CONVERGENCE PER FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS
THERE. OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR SHRA WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT SW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN SOME MOST PLACES...ESP THE FAR SW
WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH POSSIBLE SHRA. A FAST MOVING IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE EASTERN NOAM UPPER TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TUE
NIGHT...SUPPORTING A WEAK SFC LOW INTO THE EASTERN FA. THE NAM
DID INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL SHRA ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
REMAINS THE WET OUTLIER. LEFT THINGS DRY FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE TRACK/TIMING/AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE IS
ESTABLISHED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...BUT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO
NEAR AVERAGE. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...DIURNAL HEATING MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
WITH WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY EXPECT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 290521
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEING EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS. LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MONSOON FLOW WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE PERIPHERY. ONCE SUCH IMPULSE WILL ADVECT
THROUGH THE SW FA THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING ISOLD
SHRA/TS THERE. OTHERWISE REFLECTED LL FLOW WILL PUSH A SFC TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA TUES...WITH WINDS BACKING NORTHERLY...REINFORCING
COOLER-DRIER FLOW INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY
DISMAL...ESP GIVEN LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH SUPPORT AN IMPULSE
TRACK MORE SW OF THE FA...BREAKING DOWN THE LL THETA-E BUBBLE OVER
THE WESTERN FA FASTER.

TONIGHT...LL THETA-E RIDGE FROM NE WY THROUGH SCNTRL SD WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNDER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WEAK UVM ASSOCIATED WITH
THE IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT ISOLD SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WITH AN EXPECTED
ACCAS PLUME...WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE DEPARTING BACKSIDE JET
STREAK FROM THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH. RETAINED LOW POPS SW
THIRD FOR THIS.

TUESDAY...UPPER IMPULSE WILL TURN SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH
LINGERING LSA AND UVM POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA OVER THE FAR
SW. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE FA GIVEN FURTHER SW
IMPULSE TRACK AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER NORTHERLY DRY PUSH. HAVE
SHAVED POPS BACK. LINGERING LL MOISTURE WITH SW BLACK HILLS LOCAL
CONVERGENCE PER FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS
THERE. OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR SHRA WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT SW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN SOME MOST PLACES...ESP THE FAR SW
WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH POSSIBLE SHRA. A FAST MOVING IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE EASTERN NOAM UPPER TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TUE
NIGHT...SUPPORTING A WEAK SFC LOW INTO THE EASTERN FA. THE NAM
DID INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL SHRA ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
REMAINS THE WET OUTLIER. LEFT THINGS DRY FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE TRACK/TIMING/AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE IS
ESTABLISHED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...BUT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO
NEAR AVERAGE. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...DIURNAL HEATING MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
WITH WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY EXPECT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 290521
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEING EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS. LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MONSOON FLOW WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE PERIPHERY. ONCE SUCH IMPULSE WILL ADVECT
THROUGH THE SW FA THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING ISOLD
SHRA/TS THERE. OTHERWISE REFLECTED LL FLOW WILL PUSH A SFC TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA TUES...WITH WINDS BACKING NORTHERLY...REINFORCING
COOLER-DRIER FLOW INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY
DISMAL...ESP GIVEN LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH SUPPORT AN IMPULSE
TRACK MORE SW OF THE FA...BREAKING DOWN THE LL THETA-E BUBBLE OVER
THE WESTERN FA FASTER.

TONIGHT...LL THETA-E RIDGE FROM NE WY THROUGH SCNTRL SD WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNDER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WEAK UVM ASSOCIATED WITH
THE IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT ISOLD SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WITH AN EXPECTED
ACCAS PLUME...WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE DEPARTING BACKSIDE JET
STREAK FROM THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH. RETAINED LOW POPS SW
THIRD FOR THIS.

TUESDAY...UPPER IMPULSE WILL TURN SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH
LINGERING LSA AND UVM POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA OVER THE FAR
SW. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE FA GIVEN FURTHER SW
IMPULSE TRACK AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER NORTHERLY DRY PUSH. HAVE
SHAVED POPS BACK. LINGERING LL MOISTURE WITH SW BLACK HILLS LOCAL
CONVERGENCE PER FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS
THERE. OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR SHRA WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT SW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN SOME MOST PLACES...ESP THE FAR SW
WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH POSSIBLE SHRA. A FAST MOVING IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE EASTERN NOAM UPPER TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TUE
NIGHT...SUPPORTING A WEAK SFC LOW INTO THE EASTERN FA. THE NAM
DID INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL SHRA ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
REMAINS THE WET OUTLIER. LEFT THINGS DRY FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE TRACK/TIMING/AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE IS
ESTABLISHED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...BUT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO
NEAR AVERAGE. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...DIURNAL HEATING MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
WITH WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY EXPECT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 290521
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEING EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS. LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MONSOON FLOW WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE PERIPHERY. ONCE SUCH IMPULSE WILL ADVECT
THROUGH THE SW FA THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING ISOLD
SHRA/TS THERE. OTHERWISE REFLECTED LL FLOW WILL PUSH A SFC TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA TUES...WITH WINDS BACKING NORTHERLY...REINFORCING
COOLER-DRIER FLOW INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY
DISMAL...ESP GIVEN LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH SUPPORT AN IMPULSE
TRACK MORE SW OF THE FA...BREAKING DOWN THE LL THETA-E BUBBLE OVER
THE WESTERN FA FASTER.

TONIGHT...LL THETA-E RIDGE FROM NE WY THROUGH SCNTRL SD WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNDER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WEAK UVM ASSOCIATED WITH
THE IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT ISOLD SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WITH AN EXPECTED
ACCAS PLUME...WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE DEPARTING BACKSIDE JET
STREAK FROM THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH. RETAINED LOW POPS SW
THIRD FOR THIS.

TUESDAY...UPPER IMPULSE WILL TURN SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH
LINGERING LSA AND UVM POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA OVER THE FAR
SW. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE FA GIVEN FURTHER SW
IMPULSE TRACK AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER NORTHERLY DRY PUSH. HAVE
SHAVED POPS BACK. LINGERING LL MOISTURE WITH SW BLACK HILLS LOCAL
CONVERGENCE PER FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS
THERE. OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR SHRA WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT SW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN SOME MOST PLACES...ESP THE FAR SW
WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH POSSIBLE SHRA. A FAST MOVING IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE EASTERN NOAM UPPER TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TUE
NIGHT...SUPPORTING A WEAK SFC LOW INTO THE EASTERN FA. THE NAM
DID INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL SHRA ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
REMAINS THE WET OUTLIER. LEFT THINGS DRY FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE TRACK/TIMING/AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE IS
ESTABLISHED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...BUT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO
NEAR AVERAGE. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...DIURNAL HEATING MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
WITH WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY EXPECT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KFSD 290501
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1201 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
ELONGATED VORTICITY AXIS LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO PERIODIC BOUTS OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TONIGHT...LEANED MORE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE GIVEN FALLING DEW POINTS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH THE 40S IN SHELTERED AREAS AS WINDS TURN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

REALISTICALLY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN OVERALL INCREASE IN HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES...BUT STILL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH LINGERING VORTICITY AXIS NEARBY...WOULDNT RULE OUT AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO SETUP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS...FILTERING IN
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR BY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE MIXED IN
BRINGING A FRONT AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES IN BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS AT OR
BELOW 10KT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH









000
FXUS63 KFSD 290501
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1201 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
ELONGATED VORTICITY AXIS LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO PERIODIC BOUTS OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TONIGHT...LEANED MORE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE GIVEN FALLING DEW POINTS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH THE 40S IN SHELTERED AREAS AS WINDS TURN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

REALISTICALLY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN OVERALL INCREASE IN HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES...BUT STILL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH LINGERING VORTICITY AXIS NEARBY...WOULDNT RULE OUT AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO SETUP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS...FILTERING IN
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR BY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE MIXED IN
BRINGING A FRONT AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES IN BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS AT OR
BELOW 10KT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH








000
FXUS63 KABR 290231
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
931 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. INHERITED GRIDS LOOK SPOT ON WITH
TEMPS/SKY COVER. NO ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE CURRENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT RANGE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WITH A LACK OF ANY DECENT WAA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
A SLOW RISE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR PCPN...CHANCES STILL LOOK
PRETTY MARGINAL. ALTHOUGH THAT SAID FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DO SHOW STEEP SFC/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
SOME DIABATICALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY ALSO BRINGS ABOUT A WEE BIT MORE SFC BASED CAPE SO WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A WEAK SHOWER/SPKLS WITHIN WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF/GFS. OVERALL THOUGH NOT ENOUGH
OF A THREAT OF MEASURABLE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES AROUND NORMAL. THE GFS IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE
SHOWS SHC TO LOW END CHC POPS ON SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH VALID
FORECAST TIME. FEW-SCT STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS NERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 02Z...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL AREAS
THROUGH 12Z. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 290036 CCA
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
518 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEING EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS. LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MONSOON FLOW WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE PERIPHERY. ONCE SUCH IMPULSE WILL ADVECT
THROUGH THE SW FA THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING ISOLD
SHRA/TS THERE. OTHERWISE REFLECTED LL FLOW WILL PUSH A SFC TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA TUES...WITH WINDS BACKING NORTHERLY...REINFORCING
COOLER-DRIER FLOW INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY
DISMAL...ESP GIVEN LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH SUPPORT AN IMPULSE
TRACK MORE SW OF THE FA...BREAKING DOWN THE LL THETA-E BUBBLE OVER
THE WESTERN FA FASTER.

TONIGHT...LL THETA-E RIDGE FROM NE WY THROUGH SCNTRL SD WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNDER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WEAK UVM ASSOCIATED WITH
THE IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT ISOLD SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WITH AN EXPECTED
ACCAS PLUME...WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE DEPARTING BACKSIDE JET
STREAK FROM THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH. RETAINED LOW POPS SW
THIRD FOR THIS.

TUESDAY...UPPER IMPULSE WILL TURN SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH
LINGERING LSA AND UVM POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA OVER THE FAR
SW. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE FA GIVEN FURTHER SW
IMPULSE TRACK AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER NORTHERLY DRY PUSH. HAVE
SHAVED POPS BACK. LINGERING LL MOISTURE WITH SW BLACK HILLS LOCAL
CONVERGENCE PER FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS
THERE. OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR SHRA WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT SW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN SOME MOST PLACES...ESP THE FAR SW
WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH POSSIBLE SHRA. A FAST MOVING IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE EASTERN NOAM UPPER TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TUE
NIGHT...SUPPORTING A WEAK SFC LOW INTO THE EASTERN FA. THE NAM
DID INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL SHRA ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
REMAINS THE WET OUTLIER. LEFT THINGS DRY FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE TRACK/TIMING/AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE IS
ESTABLISHED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...BUT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO
NEAR AVERAGE. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...DIURNAL HEATING MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
WITH WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY EXPECT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...HELGESON










000
FXUS63 KUNR 290036 CCA
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
518 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEING EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS. LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MONSOON FLOW WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE PERIPHERY. ONCE SUCH IMPULSE WILL ADVECT
THROUGH THE SW FA THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING ISOLD
SHRA/TS THERE. OTHERWISE REFLECTED LL FLOW WILL PUSH A SFC TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA TUES...WITH WINDS BACKING NORTHERLY...REINFORCING
COOLER-DRIER FLOW INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY
DISMAL...ESP GIVEN LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH SUPPORT AN IMPULSE
TRACK MORE SW OF THE FA...BREAKING DOWN THE LL THETA-E BUBBLE OVER
THE WESTERN FA FASTER.

TONIGHT...LL THETA-E RIDGE FROM NE WY THROUGH SCNTRL SD WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNDER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WEAK UVM ASSOCIATED WITH
THE IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT ISOLD SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WITH AN EXPECTED
ACCAS PLUME...WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE DEPARTING BACKSIDE JET
STREAK FROM THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH. RETAINED LOW POPS SW
THIRD FOR THIS.

TUESDAY...UPPER IMPULSE WILL TURN SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH
LINGERING LSA AND UVM POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA OVER THE FAR
SW. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE FA GIVEN FURTHER SW
IMPULSE TRACK AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER NORTHERLY DRY PUSH. HAVE
SHAVED POPS BACK. LINGERING LL MOISTURE WITH SW BLACK HILLS LOCAL
CONVERGENCE PER FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS
THERE. OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR SHRA WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT SW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN SOME MOST PLACES...ESP THE FAR SW
WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH POSSIBLE SHRA. A FAST MOVING IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE EASTERN NOAM UPPER TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TUE
NIGHT...SUPPORTING A WEAK SFC LOW INTO THE EASTERN FA. THE NAM
DID INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL SHRA ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
REMAINS THE WET OUTLIER. LEFT THINGS DRY FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE TRACK/TIMING/AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE IS
ESTABLISHED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...BUT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO
NEAR AVERAGE. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...DIURNAL HEATING MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
WITH WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY EXPECT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...HELGESON









000
FXUS63 KABR 282333
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
633 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE CURRENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT RANGE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WITH A LACK OF ANY DECENT WAA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
A SLOW RISE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR PCPN...CHANCES STILL LOOK
PRETTY MARGINAL. ALTHOUGH THAT SAID FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DO SHOW STEEP SFC/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
SOME DIABATICALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY ALSO BRINGS ABOUT A WEE BIT MORE SFC BASED CAPE SO WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A WEAK SHOWER/SPKLS WITHIN WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF/GFS. OVERALL THOUGH NOT ENOUGH
OF A THREAT OF MEASURABLE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES AROUND NORMAL. THE GFS IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE
SHOWS SHC TO LOW END CHC POPS ON SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH VALID
FORECAST TIME. FEW-SCT STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS NERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 02Z...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL AREAS
THROUGH 12Z. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 282333
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
633 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE CURRENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT RANGE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WITH A LACK OF ANY DECENT WAA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
A SLOW RISE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR PCPN...CHANCES STILL LOOK
PRETTY MARGINAL. ALTHOUGH THAT SAID FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DO SHOW STEEP SFC/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
SOME DIABATICALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY ALSO BRINGS ABOUT A WEE BIT MORE SFC BASED CAPE SO WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A WEAK SHOWER/SPKLS WITHIN WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF/GFS. OVERALL THOUGH NOT ENOUGH
OF A THREAT OF MEASURABLE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES AROUND NORMAL. THE GFS IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE
SHOWS SHC TO LOW END CHC POPS ON SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH VALID
FORECAST TIME. FEW-SCT STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS NERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 02Z...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL AREAS
THROUGH 12Z. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 282333
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
633 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE CURRENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT RANGE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WITH A LACK OF ANY DECENT WAA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
A SLOW RISE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR PCPN...CHANCES STILL LOOK
PRETTY MARGINAL. ALTHOUGH THAT SAID FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DO SHOW STEEP SFC/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
SOME DIABATICALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY ALSO BRINGS ABOUT A WEE BIT MORE SFC BASED CAPE SO WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A WEAK SHOWER/SPKLS WITHIN WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF/GFS. OVERALL THOUGH NOT ENOUGH
OF A THREAT OF MEASURABLE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES AROUND NORMAL. THE GFS IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE
SHOWS SHC TO LOW END CHC POPS ON SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH VALID
FORECAST TIME. FEW-SCT STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS NERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 02Z...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL AREAS
THROUGH 12Z. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 282333
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
633 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE CURRENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT RANGE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WITH A LACK OF ANY DECENT WAA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
A SLOW RISE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR PCPN...CHANCES STILL LOOK
PRETTY MARGINAL. ALTHOUGH THAT SAID FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DO SHOW STEEP SFC/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
SOME DIABATICALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY ALSO BRINGS ABOUT A WEE BIT MORE SFC BASED CAPE SO WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A WEAK SHOWER/SPKLS WITHIN WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF/GFS. OVERALL THOUGH NOT ENOUGH
OF A THREAT OF MEASURABLE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES AROUND NORMAL. THE GFS IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE
SHOWS SHC TO LOW END CHC POPS ON SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH VALID
FORECAST TIME. FEW-SCT STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS NERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 02Z...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL AREAS
THROUGH 12Z. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 282325
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
625 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
ELONGATED VORTICITY AXIS LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO PERIODIC BOUTS OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TONIGHT...LEANED MORE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE GIVEN FALLING DEW POINTS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH THE 40S IN SHELTERED AREAS AS WINDS TURN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

REALISTICALLY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN OVERALL INCREASE IN HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES...BUT STILL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH LINGERING VORTICITY AXIS NEARBY...WOULDNT RULE OUT AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO SETUP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS...FILTERING IN
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR BY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE MIXED IN
BRINGING A FRONT AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES IN BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS AT OR
BELOW 10KT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KUNR 282318
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
518 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEING EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS. LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MONSOON FLOW WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE PERIPHERY. ONCE SUCH IMPULSE WILL ADVECT
THROUGH THE SW FA THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING ISOLD
SHRA/TS THERE. OTHERWISE REFLECTED LL FLOW WILL PUSH A SFC TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA TUES...WITH WINDS BACKING NORTHERLY...REINFORCING
COOLER-DRIER FLOW INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY
DISMAL...ESP GIVEN LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH SUPPORT AN IMPULSE
TRACK MORE SW OF THE FA...BREAKING DOWN THE LL THETA-E BUBBLE OVER
THE WESTERN FA FASTER.

TONIGHT...LL THETA-E RIDGE FROM NE WY THROUGH SCNTRL SD WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNDER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WEAK UVM ASSOCIATED WITH
THE IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT ISOLD SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WITH AN EXPECTED
ACCAS PLUME...WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE DEPARTING BACKSIDE JET
STREAK FROM THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH. RETAINED LOW POOP SW
THIRD FOR THIS.

TUESDAY...UPPER IMPULSE WILL TURN SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH
LINGERING LSA AND UVM POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA OVER THE FAR
SW. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE FA GIVEN FURTHER SW
IMPULSE TRACK AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER NORTHERLY DRY PUSH. HAVE
SHAVED POPS BACK. LINGERING LL MOISTURE WITH SW BLACK HILLS LOCAL
CONVERGENCE PER FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS
THERE. OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR SHRA WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT SW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN SOME MOST PLACES...ESP THE FAR SW
WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH POSSIBLE SHRA. A FAST MOVING IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE EASTERN NOAM UPPER TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TUE
NIGHT...SUPPORTING A WEAK SFC LOW INTO THE EASTERN FA. THE NAM
DID INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL SHRA ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
REMAINS THE WET OUTLIER. LEFT THINGS DRY FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE TRACK/TIMING/AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE IS
ESTABLISHED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...BUT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO
NEAR AVERAGE. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...DIURNAL HEATING MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
WITH WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY EXPECT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...HELGESON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 282318
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
518 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEING EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS. LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MONSOON FLOW WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE PERIPHERY. ONCE SUCH IMPULSE WILL ADVECT
THROUGH THE SW FA THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING ISOLD
SHRA/TS THERE. OTHERWISE REFLECTED LL FLOW WILL PUSH A SFC TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA TUES...WITH WINDS BACKING NORTHERLY...REINFORCING
COOLER-DRIER FLOW INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY
DISMAL...ESP GIVEN LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH SUPPORT AN IMPULSE
TRACK MORE SW OF THE FA...BREAKING DOWN THE LL THETA-E BUBBLE OVER
THE WESTERN FA FASTER.

TONIGHT...LL THETA-E RIDGE FROM NE WY THROUGH SCNTRL SD WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNDER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WEAK UVM ASSOCIATED WITH
THE IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT ISOLD SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WITH AN EXPECTED
ACCAS PLUME...WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE DEPARTING BACKSIDE JET
STREAK FROM THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH. RETAINED LOW POOP SW
THIRD FOR THIS.

TUESDAY...UPPER IMPULSE WILL TURN SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH
LINGERING LSA AND UVM POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA OVER THE FAR
SW. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE FA GIVEN FURTHER SW
IMPULSE TRACK AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER NORTHERLY DRY PUSH. HAVE
SHAVED POPS BACK. LINGERING LL MOISTURE WITH SW BLACK HILLS LOCAL
CONVERGENCE PER FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS
THERE. OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR SHRA WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT SW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN SOME MOST PLACES...ESP THE FAR SW
WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH POSSIBLE SHRA. A FAST MOVING IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE EASTERN NOAM UPPER TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TUE
NIGHT...SUPPORTING A WEAK SFC LOW INTO THE EASTERN FA. THE NAM
DID INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL SHRA ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
REMAINS THE WET OUTLIER. LEFT THINGS DRY FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE TRACK/TIMING/AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE IS
ESTABLISHED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...BUT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO
NEAR AVERAGE. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...DIURNAL HEATING MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
WITH WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY EXPECT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...HELGESON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 282008
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
208 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEING EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS. LONG FETCH
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MONSOON FLOW WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE PERIPHERY. ONCE SUCH IMPULSE WILL
ADVECT THROUGH THE SW FA THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING ISOLD
SHRA/TS THERE. OTHERWISE REFLECTED LL FLOW WILL PUSH A SFC TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA TUES...WITH WINDS BACKING NORTHERLY...REINFORCING
COOLER-DRIER FLOW INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY
DISMAL...ESP GIVEN LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH SUPPORT AN IMPULSE TRACK
MORE SW OF THE FA...BREAKING DOWN THE LL THETA-E BUBBLE OVER THE
WESTERN FA FASTER.

TONIGHT...LL THETA-E RIDGE FROM NE WY THROUGH SCNTRL SD WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNDER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WEAK UVM ASSOCIATED WITH
THE IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT ISOLD SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WITH AN EXPECTED
ACCUS PLUME...WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE DEPARTING BACKSIDE JET
STREAK FROM THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH. RETAINED LOW POOP SW THIRD
FOR THIS.

TUESDAY...UPPER IMPULSE WILL TURN SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH
LINGERING LSA AND UVM POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA OVER THE FAR
SW. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE FA GIVEN FURTHER SW
IMPULSE TRACK AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER NORTHERLY DRY PUSH. HAVE
SHAVED POPS BACK. LINGERING LL MOISTURE WITH SW BLACK HILLS LOCAL
CONVERGENCE PER FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS
THERE. OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR SHRA WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT SW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN SOME MOST PLACES...ESP THE FAR SW
WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH POSSIBLE SHRA. A FAST MOVING IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE EASTERN NOAM UPPER TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TUE
NIGHT...SUPPORTING A WEAK SFC LOW INTO THE EASTERN FA. THE NAM
DID INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL SHRA ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
REMAINS THE WET OUTLIER. LEFT THINGS DRY FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE TRACK/TIMING/AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE IS
ESTABLISHED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...BUT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO
NEAR AVERAGE. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...DIURNAL HEATING MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
WITH WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY EXPECT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING LATE THIS EVENING...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS







000
FXUS63 KUNR 282008
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
208 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEING EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS. LONG FETCH
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MONSOON FLOW WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE PERIPHERY. ONCE SUCH IMPULSE WILL
ADVECT THROUGH THE SW FA THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING ISOLD
SHRA/TS THERE. OTHERWISE REFLECTED LL FLOW WILL PUSH A SFC TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA TUES...WITH WINDS BACKING NORTHERLY...REINFORCING
COOLER-DRIER FLOW INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY
DISMAL...ESP GIVEN LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH SUPPORT AN IMPULSE TRACK
MORE SW OF THE FA...BREAKING DOWN THE LL THETA-E BUBBLE OVER THE
WESTERN FA FASTER.

TONIGHT...LL THETA-E RIDGE FROM NE WY THROUGH SCNTRL SD WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNDER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WEAK UVM ASSOCIATED WITH
THE IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT ISOLD SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WITH AN EXPECTED
ACCUS PLUME...WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE DEPARTING BACKSIDE JET
STREAK FROM THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH. RETAINED LOW POOP SW THIRD
FOR THIS.

TUESDAY...UPPER IMPULSE WILL TURN SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH
LINGERING LSA AND UVM POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA OVER THE FAR
SW. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE FA GIVEN FURTHER SW
IMPULSE TRACK AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER NORTHERLY DRY PUSH. HAVE
SHAVED POPS BACK. LINGERING LL MOISTURE WITH SW BLACK HILLS LOCAL
CONVERGENCE PER FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS
THERE. OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR SHRA WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT SW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN SOME MOST PLACES...ESP THE FAR SW
WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH POSSIBLE SHRA. A FAST MOVING IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE EASTERN NOAM UPPER TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TUE
NIGHT...SUPPORTING A WEAK SFC LOW INTO THE EASTERN FA. THE NAM
DID INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL SHRA ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
REMAINS THE WET OUTLIER. LEFT THINGS DRY FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE TRACK/TIMING/AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE IS
ESTABLISHED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...BUT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO
NEAR AVERAGE. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...DIURNAL HEATING MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
WITH WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY EXPECT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING LATE THIS EVENING...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS







000
FXUS63 KUNR 282008
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
208 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEING EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS. LONG FETCH
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MONSOON FLOW WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE PERIPHERY. ONCE SUCH IMPULSE WILL
ADVECT THROUGH THE SW FA THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING ISOLD
SHRA/TS THERE. OTHERWISE REFLECTED LL FLOW WILL PUSH A SFC TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA TUES...WITH WINDS BACKING NORTHERLY...REINFORCING
COOLER-DRIER FLOW INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY
DISMAL...ESP GIVEN LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH SUPPORT AN IMPULSE TRACK
MORE SW OF THE FA...BREAKING DOWN THE LL THETA-E BUBBLE OVER THE
WESTERN FA FASTER.

TONIGHT...LL THETA-E RIDGE FROM NE WY THROUGH SCNTRL SD WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNDER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WEAK UVM ASSOCIATED WITH
THE IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT ISOLD SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WITH AN EXPECTED
ACCUS PLUME...WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE DEPARTING BACKSIDE JET
STREAK FROM THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH. RETAINED LOW POOP SW THIRD
FOR THIS.

TUESDAY...UPPER IMPULSE WILL TURN SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH
LINGERING LSA AND UVM POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA OVER THE FAR
SW. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE FA GIVEN FURTHER SW
IMPULSE TRACK AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER NORTHERLY DRY PUSH. HAVE
SHAVED POPS BACK. LINGERING LL MOISTURE WITH SW BLACK HILLS LOCAL
CONVERGENCE PER FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS
THERE. OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR SHRA WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT SW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN SOME MOST PLACES...ESP THE FAR SW
WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH POSSIBLE SHRA. A FAST MOVING IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE EASTERN NOAM UPPER TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TUE
NIGHT...SUPPORTING A WEAK SFC LOW INTO THE EASTERN FA. THE NAM
DID INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL SHRA ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
REMAINS THE WET OUTLIER. LEFT THINGS DRY FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE TRACK/TIMING/AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE IS
ESTABLISHED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...BUT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO
NEAR AVERAGE. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...DIURNAL HEATING MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
WITH WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY EXPECT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING LATE THIS EVENING...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS







000
FXUS63 KUNR 282008
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
208 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEING EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS. LONG FETCH
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MONSOON FLOW WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE PERIPHERY. ONCE SUCH IMPULSE WILL
ADVECT THROUGH THE SW FA THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING ISOLD
SHRA/TS THERE. OTHERWISE REFLECTED LL FLOW WILL PUSH A SFC TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA TUES...WITH WINDS BACKING NORTHERLY...REINFORCING
COOLER-DRIER FLOW INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY
DISMAL...ESP GIVEN LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH SUPPORT AN IMPULSE TRACK
MORE SW OF THE FA...BREAKING DOWN THE LL THETA-E BUBBLE OVER THE
WESTERN FA FASTER.

TONIGHT...LL THETA-E RIDGE FROM NE WY THROUGH SCNTRL SD WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNDER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WEAK UVM ASSOCIATED WITH
THE IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT ISOLD SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WITH AN EXPECTED
ACCUS PLUME...WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE DEPARTING BACKSIDE JET
STREAK FROM THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH. RETAINED LOW POOP SW THIRD
FOR THIS.

TUESDAY...UPPER IMPULSE WILL TURN SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH
LINGERING LSA AND UVM POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA OVER THE FAR
SW. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE FA GIVEN FURTHER SW
IMPULSE TRACK AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER NORTHERLY DRY PUSH. HAVE
SHAVED POPS BACK. LINGERING LL MOISTURE WITH SW BLACK HILLS LOCAL
CONVERGENCE PER FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS
THERE. OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR SHRA WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT SW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN SOME MOST PLACES...ESP THE FAR SW
WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH POSSIBLE SHRA. A FAST MOVING IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE EASTERN NOAM UPPER TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TUE
NIGHT...SUPPORTING A WEAK SFC LOW INTO THE EASTERN FA. THE NAM
DID INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL SHRA ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
REMAINS THE WET OUTLIER. LEFT THINGS DRY FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE TRACK/TIMING/AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE IS
ESTABLISHED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...BUT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO
NEAR AVERAGE. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...DIURNAL HEATING MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
WITH WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY EXPECT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING LATE THIS EVENING...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS







000
FXUS63 KFSD 281954
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
254 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
ELONGATED VORTICITY AXIS LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO PERIODIC BOUTS OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TONIGHT...LEANED MORE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE GIVEN FALLING DEW POINTS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH THE 40S IN SHELTERED AREAS AS WINDS TURN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

REALISTICALLY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN OVERALL INCREASE IN HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES...BUT STILL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH LINGERING VORTICITY AXIS NEARBY...WOULDNT RULE OUT AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO SETUP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS...FILTERING IN
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR BY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE MIXED IN
BRINGING A FRONT AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES IN BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AS THE CU FIELD FORMED LATE
THIS MORNING...CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HINTING THAT CLOUD COVER MAY AGAIN LINGER INTO
THE NIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ANTICIPATING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS WINDS TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...DUX







000
FXUS63 KABR 281934
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
234 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE CURRENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT RANGE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WITH A LACK OF ANY DECENT WAA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
A SLOW RISE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR PCPN...CHANCES STILL LOOK
PRETTY MARGINAL. ALTHOUGH THAT SAID FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DO SHOW STEEP SFC/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
SOME DIABATICALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY ALSO BRINGS ABOUT A WEE BIT MORE SFC BASED CAPE SO WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A WEAK SHOWER/SPKLS WITHIN WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF/GFS. OVERALL THOUGH NOT ENOUGH
OF A THREAT OF MEASURABLE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES AROUND NORMAL. THE GFS IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE
SHOWS SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS ON SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN STRATUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING UPON SUNSET.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 281934
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
234 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE CURRENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT RANGE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WITH A LACK OF ANY DECENT WAA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
A SLOW RISE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR PCPN...CHANCES STILL LOOK
PRETTY MARGINAL. ALTHOUGH THAT SAID FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DO SHOW STEEP SFC/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
SOME DIABATICALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY ALSO BRINGS ABOUT A WEE BIT MORE SFC BASED CAPE SO WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A WEAK SHOWER/SPKLS WITHIN WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF/GFS. OVERALL THOUGH NOT ENOUGH
OF A THREAT OF MEASURABLE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES AROUND NORMAL. THE GFS IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE
SHOWS SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS ON SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN STRATUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING UPON SUNSET.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 281934
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
234 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE CURRENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT RANGE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WITH A LACK OF ANY DECENT WAA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
A SLOW RISE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR PCPN...CHANCES STILL LOOK
PRETTY MARGINAL. ALTHOUGH THAT SAID FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DO SHOW STEEP SFC/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
SOME DIABATICALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY ALSO BRINGS ABOUT A WEE BIT MORE SFC BASED CAPE SO WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A WEAK SHOWER/SPKLS WITHIN WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF/GFS. OVERALL THOUGH NOT ENOUGH
OF A THREAT OF MEASURABLE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES AROUND NORMAL. THE GFS IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE
SHOWS SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS ON SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN STRATUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING UPON SUNSET.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 281934
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
234 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE CURRENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT RANGE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WITH A LACK OF ANY DECENT WAA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
A SLOW RISE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR PCPN...CHANCES STILL LOOK
PRETTY MARGINAL. ALTHOUGH THAT SAID FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DO SHOW STEEP SFC/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
SOME DIABATICALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY ALSO BRINGS ABOUT A WEE BIT MORE SFC BASED CAPE SO WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A WEAK SHOWER/SPKLS WITHIN WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF/GFS. OVERALL THOUGH NOT ENOUGH
OF A THREAT OF MEASURABLE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES AROUND NORMAL. THE GFS IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE
SHOWS SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS ON SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN STRATUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING UPON SUNSET.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 281759
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1159 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

LL POS THETA-E ADV OVERNIGHT HAS RESULTED IN SOME CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL BLACK HILLS. DIURNAL HEATING WITH SE
FLOW AND MID RIDGE CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHOWER THERE
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHARPEN AS TROF OVER EASTERN US
DEEPENS AND ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES WEST COAST. SERIES OF SHORT
WAVE WILL CROSS RIDGE ONTO THE PLAINS. FIRST WAVE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL CROSS WY TODAY AND MOVE INTO NE. EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THETA-E RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN
WY...AND CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 500 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CIN.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER THE SAME AREA TUESDAY AS LEE
TROF DEVELOPS AS INVERTED TROF FORMS ALONG FRONT RANGE AND EXTENDS
INTO EASTERN WY. DRY...STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER REST OF FORECAST
AREA.

SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
RIDGE AXIS REMAINING N-S OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS-NE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER WESTERN SD WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST...
BUT CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. KEPT MAX TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AS WINDS AND CLOUD COVER INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A STRONG
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE MAPS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER ONLY MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR THIS ACTIVITY AND STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OF SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING LATE THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
NEAR STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...MLS







000
FXUS63 KUNR 281759
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1159 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

LL POS THETA-E ADV OVERNIGHT HAS RESULTED IN SOME CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL BLACK HILLS. DIURNAL HEATING WITH SE
FLOW AND MID RIDGE CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHOWER THERE
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHARPEN AS TROF OVER EASTERN US
DEEPENS AND ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES WEST COAST. SERIES OF SHORT
WAVE WILL CROSS RIDGE ONTO THE PLAINS. FIRST WAVE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL CROSS WY TODAY AND MOVE INTO NE. EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THETA-E RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN
WY...AND CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 500 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CIN.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER THE SAME AREA TUESDAY AS LEE
TROF DEVELOPS AS INVERTED TROF FORMS ALONG FRONT RANGE AND EXTENDS
INTO EASTERN WY. DRY...STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER REST OF FORECAST
AREA.

SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
RIDGE AXIS REMAINING N-S OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS-NE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER WESTERN SD WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST...
BUT CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. KEPT MAX TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AS WINDS AND CLOUD COVER INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A STRONG
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE MAPS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER ONLY MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR THIS ACTIVITY AND STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OF SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING LATE THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
NEAR STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...MLS






000
FXUS63 KABR 281724 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

ONLY MINOR UPDATES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN AREA OF STRATUS AROUND 6KFT IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. NAM PROFILES SHOW ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK INSTABILITY...SO
ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND ITS PERIPHERY
ONCE THE SUN COMES UP. THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS AS PARTIAL
CLEARING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH STABLE CONDITIONS. A SLOW WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS WELL COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS
TODAY AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY THE SAME THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE 50H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US PATTERN REMAINS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
EASTERN US TROUGH WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAYBE SOME
EASTWARD MOVEMENT LATE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...
LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN STRATUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING UPON SUNSET.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




000
FXUS63 KABR 281724 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

ONLY MINOR UPDATES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN AREA OF STRATUS AROUND 6KFT IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. NAM PROFILES SHOW ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK INSTABILITY...SO
ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND ITS PERIPHERY
ONCE THE SUN COMES UP. THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS AS PARTIAL
CLEARING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH STABLE CONDITIONS. A SLOW WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS WELL COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS
TODAY AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY THE SAME THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE 50H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US PATTERN REMAINS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
EASTERN US TROUGH WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAYBE SOME
EASTWARD MOVEMENT LATE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...
LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN STRATUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING UPON SUNSET.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 281717
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1217 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHEAR VORTICITY AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...
AND WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING BY SEEMS TO HAVE INCREASED SOME OF THE
LOWER LEVEL /SUB 850 HPA/ THETA E ADVECTION AND PUSHED A WEAK
FRONTOGENETIC AXIS INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CWA. A FEW
SPRINKLES AND VERY LIGHT RAINFALL NOTED IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL
MN AND WILL LIKELY ROTATE ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OR SO THROUGH
THE PRE 12Z TIME FRAME. PLENTY OF CLOUDS PROMISE TO PERSIST ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I29 CORRIDOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THIS
CONCERNING TO MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL. FURTHER WEST...WILL HAVE
A BETTER TIME HEATING...BUT WILL EVEN LEAD TO A LESSER COVERAGE FLAT
CUMULUS.  WILL PROBABLY BE A FAIRLY LATE DAY MAX...AS SOME SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND THINNING OF CLOUD LAYER EVIDENT EVEN IN THE
NORTH/EAST. SHOULD RANGE FROM LOWER 70S IN THE EAST...TO NEAR 80
WEST.  OTHERWISE...FAIRLY STRONG CONSENSUS OF OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATE MUCH OF SW MN/NW IA WILL END UP WITH
50-100 J/KG OF SHALLOW ML CAPE. WOULD STILL LIKE TO SEE SOME CLOUD
BEARING TEMPS CREEP INTO THE SUB ZERO C RANGE...BUT EVEN SOME LESSER
EFFICIENT MODE FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EAST OF I 29...STARTING BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AND LEAVE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COULD BE A FEW CLOUDS
ENCROACHING ON THE WEST FROM HIGH PLAINS CONVECTIVE BLOW-OFF...AND
EVEN A FEW PATCHES LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR EAST. ALL IN
ALL...SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DECENT RADIATIVE COOLING NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR MASS...SO KEPT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE OVERALL. THE WAY TEMPERATURES HAVE BEHAVED TONIGHT IN CLEAR
AREAS LENDS SUPPORT TO THE COLD NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE
MID AND LONG RANGE. A WELL AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BE THE NORM AND CONTINUE TO
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL READINGS. VERY WEAK FLOW...PARTICULARLY AT
THE SURFACE WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY
LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AROUND LESS THAN 10 MPH. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME DAILY SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...MIXING SHOULD BE
DECENT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE FOLLOWING SOME OF THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT NOT MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...PERHAPS
APPROACHING 90 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD BY THE WEEKEND.

PATTERN REMAINS DRY WITH VERY LITTLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL ACTIVITY.
ANY SHORTWAVES OF NOTE CONTINUE TO TREND FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST TO
REMAIN NON EVENTS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AS THE CU FIELD FORMED LATE
THIS MORNING...CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HINTING THAT CLOUD COVER MAY AGAIN LINGER INTO
THE NIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ANTICIPATING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS WINDS TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX






000
FXUS63 KABR 281538 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1038 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN AREA OF STRATUS AROUND 6KFT IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. NAM PROFILES SHOW ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK INSTABILITY...SO
ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND ITS PERIPHERY
ONCE THE SUN COMES UP. THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS AS PARTIAL
CLEARING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST TIME FRAME WITH STABLE CONDITIONS. A SLOW WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS WELL COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS
TODAY AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY THE SAME THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE 50H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US PATTERN REMAINS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
EASTERN US TROUGH WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAYBE SOME
EASTWARD MOVEMENT LATE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...
LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SCT-BKN STRATUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS ATY AND
ABR INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 281538 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1038 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN AREA OF STRATUS AROUND 6KFT IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. NAM PROFILES SHOW ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK INSTABILITY...SO
ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND ITS PERIPHERY
ONCE THE SUN COMES UP. THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS AS PARTIAL
CLEARING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST TIME FRAME WITH STABLE CONDITIONS. A SLOW WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS WELL COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS
TODAY AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY THE SAME THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE 50H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US PATTERN REMAINS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
EASTERN US TROUGH WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAYBE SOME
EASTWARD MOVEMENT LATE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...
LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SCT-BKN STRATUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS ATY AND
ABR INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 281538 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1038 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN AREA OF STRATUS AROUND 6KFT IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. NAM PROFILES SHOW ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK INSTABILITY...SO
ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND ITS PERIPHERY
ONCE THE SUN COMES UP. THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS AS PARTIAL
CLEARING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST TIME FRAME WITH STABLE CONDITIONS. A SLOW WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS WELL COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS
TODAY AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY THE SAME THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE 50H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US PATTERN REMAINS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
EASTERN US TROUGH WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAYBE SOME
EASTWARD MOVEMENT LATE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...
LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SCT-BKN STRATUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS ATY AND
ABR INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 281538 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1038 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN AREA OF STRATUS AROUND 6KFT IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. NAM PROFILES SHOW ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK INSTABILITY...SO
ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND ITS PERIPHERY
ONCE THE SUN COMES UP. THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS AS PARTIAL
CLEARING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST TIME FRAME WITH STABLE CONDITIONS. A SLOW WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS WELL COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS
TODAY AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY THE SAME THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE 50H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US PATTERN REMAINS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
EASTERN US TROUGH WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAYBE SOME
EASTWARD MOVEMENT LATE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...
LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SCT-BKN STRATUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS ATY AND
ABR INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 281531
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
931 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

LL POS THETA-E ADV OVERNIGHT HAS RESULTED IN SOME CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL BLACK HILLS. DIURNAL HEATING WITH SE
FLOW AND MID RIDGE CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHOWER THERE
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHARPEN AS TROF OVER EASTERN US
DEEPENS AND ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES WEST COAST. SERIES OF SHORT
WAVE WILL CROSS RIDGE ONTO THE PLAINS. FIRST WAVE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL CROSS WY TODAY AND MOVE INTO NE. EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THETA-E RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN
WY...AND CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 500 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CIN.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER THE SAME AREA TUESDAY AS LEE
TROF DEVELOPS AS INVERTED TROF FORMS ALONG FRONT RANGE AND EXTENDS
INTO EASTERN WY. DRY...STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER REST OF FORECAST
AREA.

SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
RIDGE AXIS REMAINING N-S OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS-NE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER WESTERN SD WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST...
BUT CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. KEPT MAX TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AS WINDS AND CLOUD COVER INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A STRONG
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE MAPS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER ONLY MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR THIS ACTIVITY AND STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OF SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS MAY FORM OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHEAST WYOMING LATE THIS EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS63 KUNR 281531
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
931 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

LL POS THETA-E ADV OVERNIGHT HAS RESULTED IN SOME CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL BLACK HILLS. DIURNAL HEATING WITH SE
FLOW AND MID RIDGE CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHOWER THERE
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHARPEN AS TROF OVER EASTERN US
DEEPENS AND ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES WEST COAST. SERIES OF SHORT
WAVE WILL CROSS RIDGE ONTO THE PLAINS. FIRST WAVE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL CROSS WY TODAY AND MOVE INTO NE. EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THETA-E RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN
WY...AND CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 500 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CIN.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER THE SAME AREA TUESDAY AS LEE
TROF DEVELOPS AS INVERTED TROF FORMS ALONG FRONT RANGE AND EXTENDS
INTO EASTERN WY. DRY...STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER REST OF FORECAST
AREA.

SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
RIDGE AXIS REMAINING N-S OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS-NE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER WESTERN SD WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST...
BUT CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. KEPT MAX TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AS WINDS AND CLOUD COVER INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A STRONG
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE MAPS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER ONLY MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR THIS ACTIVITY AND STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OF SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS MAY FORM OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHEAST WYOMING LATE THIS EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS63 KUNR 281531
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
931 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

LL POS THETA-E ADV OVERNIGHT HAS RESULTED IN SOME CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL BLACK HILLS. DIURNAL HEATING WITH SE
FLOW AND MID RIDGE CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHOWER THERE
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHARPEN AS TROF OVER EASTERN US
DEEPENS AND ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES WEST COAST. SERIES OF SHORT
WAVE WILL CROSS RIDGE ONTO THE PLAINS. FIRST WAVE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL CROSS WY TODAY AND MOVE INTO NE. EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THETA-E RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN
WY...AND CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 500 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CIN.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER THE SAME AREA TUESDAY AS LEE
TROF DEVELOPS AS INVERTED TROF FORMS ALONG FRONT RANGE AND EXTENDS
INTO EASTERN WY. DRY...STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER REST OF FORECAST
AREA.

SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
RIDGE AXIS REMAINING N-S OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS-NE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER WESTERN SD WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST...
BUT CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. KEPT MAX TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AS WINDS AND CLOUD COVER INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A STRONG
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE MAPS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER ONLY MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR THIS ACTIVITY AND STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OF SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS MAY FORM OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHEAST WYOMING LATE THIS EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS63 KUNR 281531
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
931 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

LL POS THETA-E ADV OVERNIGHT HAS RESULTED IN SOME CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL BLACK HILLS. DIURNAL HEATING WITH SE
FLOW AND MID RIDGE CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHOWER THERE
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHARPEN AS TROF OVER EASTERN US
DEEPENS AND ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES WEST COAST. SERIES OF SHORT
WAVE WILL CROSS RIDGE ONTO THE PLAINS. FIRST WAVE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL CROSS WY TODAY AND MOVE INTO NE. EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THETA-E RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN
WY...AND CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 500 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CIN.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER THE SAME AREA TUESDAY AS LEE
TROF DEVELOPS AS INVERTED TROF FORMS ALONG FRONT RANGE AND EXTENDS
INTO EASTERN WY. DRY...STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER REST OF FORECAST
AREA.

SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
RIDGE AXIS REMAINING N-S OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS-NE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER WESTERN SD WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST...
BUT CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. KEPT MAX TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AS WINDS AND CLOUD COVER INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A STRONG
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE MAPS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER ONLY MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR THIS ACTIVITY AND STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OF SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS MAY FORM OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHEAST WYOMING LATE THIS EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS63 KFSD 281141
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
641 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHEAR VORTICITY AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...
AND WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING BY SEEMS TO HAVE INCREASED SOME OF THE
LOWER LEVEL /SUB 850 HPA/ THETA E ADVECTION AND PUSHED A WEAK
FRONTOGENETIC AXIS INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CWA. A FEW
SPRINKLES AND VERY LIGHT RAINFALL NOTED IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL
MN AND WILL LIKELY ROTATE ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OR SO THROUGH
THE PRE 12Z TIME FRAME. PLENTY OF CLOUDS PROMISE TO PERSIST ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I29 CORRIDOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THIS
CONCERNING TO MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL. FURTHER WEST...WILL HAVE
A BETTER TIME HEATING...BUT WILL EVEN LEAD TO A LESSER COVERAGE FLAT
CUMULUS.  WILL PROBABLY BE A FAIRLY LATE DAY MAX...AS SOME SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND THINNING OF CLOUD LAYER EVIDENT EVEN IN THE
NORTH/EAST. SHOULD RANGE FROM LOWER 70S IN THE EAST...TO NEAR 80
WEST.  OTHERWISE...FAIRLY STRONG CONSENSUS OF OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATE MUCH OF SW MN/NW IA WILL END UP WITH
50-100 J/KG OF SHALLOW ML CAPE. WOULD STILL LIKE TO SEE SOME CLOUD
BEARING TEMPS CREEP INTO THE SUB ZERO C RANGE...BUT EVEN SOME LESSER
EFFICIENT MODE FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EAST OF I 29...STARTING BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AND LEAVE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COULD BE A FEW CLOUDS
ENCROACHING ON THE WEST FROM HIGH PLAINS CONVECTIVE BLOW-OFF...AND
EVEN A FEW PATCHES LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR EAST. ALL IN
ALL...SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DECENT RADIATIVE COOLING NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR MASS...SO KEPT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE OVERALL. THE WAY TEMPERATURES HAVE BEHAVED TONIGHT IN CLEAR
AREAS LENDS SUPPORT TO THE COLD NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE
MID AND LONG RANGE. A WELL AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BE THE NORM AND CONTINUE TO
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL READINGS. VERY WEAK FLOW...PARTICULARLY AT
THE SURFACE WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY
LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AROUND LESS THAN 10 MPH. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME DAILY SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...MIXING SHOULD BE
DECENT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE FOLLOWING SOME OF THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT NOT MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...PERHAPS
APPROACHING 90 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD BY THE WEEKEND.

PATTERN REMAINS DRY WITH VERY LITTLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL ACTIVITY.
ANY SHORTWAVES OF NOTE CONTINUE TO TREND FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST TO
REMAIN NON EVENTS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL OCCUR FOR KFSD AND
KSUX THROUGH THE DAY. SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 20Z ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN







000
FXUS63 KFSD 281141
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
641 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHEAR VORTICITY AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...
AND WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING BY SEEMS TO HAVE INCREASED SOME OF THE
LOWER LEVEL /SUB 850 HPA/ THETA E ADVECTION AND PUSHED A WEAK
FRONTOGENETIC AXIS INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CWA. A FEW
SPRINKLES AND VERY LIGHT RAINFALL NOTED IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL
MN AND WILL LIKELY ROTATE ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OR SO THROUGH
THE PRE 12Z TIME FRAME. PLENTY OF CLOUDS PROMISE TO PERSIST ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I29 CORRIDOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THIS
CONCERNING TO MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL. FURTHER WEST...WILL HAVE
A BETTER TIME HEATING...BUT WILL EVEN LEAD TO A LESSER COVERAGE FLAT
CUMULUS.  WILL PROBABLY BE A FAIRLY LATE DAY MAX...AS SOME SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND THINNING OF CLOUD LAYER EVIDENT EVEN IN THE
NORTH/EAST. SHOULD RANGE FROM LOWER 70S IN THE EAST...TO NEAR 80
WEST.  OTHERWISE...FAIRLY STRONG CONSENSUS OF OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATE MUCH OF SW MN/NW IA WILL END UP WITH
50-100 J/KG OF SHALLOW ML CAPE. WOULD STILL LIKE TO SEE SOME CLOUD
BEARING TEMPS CREEP INTO THE SUB ZERO C RANGE...BUT EVEN SOME LESSER
EFFICIENT MODE FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EAST OF I 29...STARTING BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AND LEAVE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COULD BE A FEW CLOUDS
ENCROACHING ON THE WEST FROM HIGH PLAINS CONVECTIVE BLOW-OFF...AND
EVEN A FEW PATCHES LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR EAST. ALL IN
ALL...SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DECENT RADIATIVE COOLING NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR MASS...SO KEPT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE OVERALL. THE WAY TEMPERATURES HAVE BEHAVED TONIGHT IN CLEAR
AREAS LENDS SUPPORT TO THE COLD NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE
MID AND LONG RANGE. A WELL AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BE THE NORM AND CONTINUE TO
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL READINGS. VERY WEAK FLOW...PARTICULARLY AT
THE SURFACE WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY
LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AROUND LESS THAN 10 MPH. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME DAILY SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...MIXING SHOULD BE
DECENT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE FOLLOWING SOME OF THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT NOT MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...PERHAPS
APPROACHING 90 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD BY THE WEEKEND.

PATTERN REMAINS DRY WITH VERY LITTLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL ACTIVITY.
ANY SHORTWAVES OF NOTE CONTINUE TO TREND FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST TO
REMAIN NON EVENTS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL OCCUR FOR KFSD AND
KSUX THROUGH THE DAY. SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 20Z ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN






000
FXUS63 KABR 281138 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
638 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN AREA OF STRATUS AROUND 6KFT IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. NAM PROFILES SHOW ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK INSTABILITY...SO
ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND ITS PERIPHERY
ONCE THE SUN COMES UP. THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS AS PARTIAL
CLEARING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH STABLE CONDITIONS. A SLOW WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS WELL COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS
TODAY AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD.



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY THE SAME THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE 50H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US PATTERN REMAINS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
EASTERN US TROUGH WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAYBE SOME
EASTWARD MOVEMENT LATE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...
LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SCT-BKN STRATUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS ATY AND
ABR INTO THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 281131
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
531 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHARPEN AS TROF OVER EASTERN US
DEEPENS AND ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES WEST COAST. SERIES OF SHORT
WAVE WILL CROSS RIDGE ONTO THE PLAINS. FIRST WAVE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL CROSS WY TODAY AND MOVE INTO NE. EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THETA-E RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN
WY...AND CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 500 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CIN.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER THE SAME AREA TUESDAY AS LEE
TROF DEVELOPS AS INVERTED TROF FORMS ALONG FRONT RANGE AND EXTENDS
INTO EASTERN WY. DRY...STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER REST OF FORECAST
AREA.

SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
RIDGE AXIS REMAINING N-S OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS-NE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER WESTERN SD WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST...
BUT CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. KEPT MAX TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AS WINDS AND CLOUD COVER INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A STRONG
FULL LATTITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE MAPS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER ONLY MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR THIS ACTIVITY AND STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OF SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS MAY FORM OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHEAST WYOMING LATE THIS EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS63 KUNR 281131
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
531 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHARPEN AS TROF OVER EASTERN US
DEEPENS AND ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES WEST COAST. SERIES OF SHORT
WAVE WILL CROSS RIDGE ONTO THE PLAINS. FIRST WAVE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL CROSS WY TODAY AND MOVE INTO NE. EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THETA-E RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN
WY...AND CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 500 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CIN.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER THE SAME AREA TUESDAY AS LEE
TROF DEVELOPS AS INVERTED TROF FORMS ALONG FRONT RANGE AND EXTENDS
INTO EASTERN WY. DRY...STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER REST OF FORECAST
AREA.

SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
RIDGE AXIS REMAINING N-S OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS-NE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER WESTERN SD WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST...
BUT CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. KEPT MAX TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AS WINDS AND CLOUD COVER INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A STRONG
FULL LATTITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE MAPS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER ONLY MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR THIS ACTIVITY AND STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OF SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS MAY FORM OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHEAST WYOMING LATE THIS EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS63 KUNR 281131
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
531 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHARPEN AS TROF OVER EASTERN US
DEEPENS AND ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES WEST COAST. SERIES OF SHORT
WAVE WILL CROSS RIDGE ONTO THE PLAINS. FIRST WAVE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL CROSS WY TODAY AND MOVE INTO NE. EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THETA-E RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN
WY...AND CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 500 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CIN.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER THE SAME AREA TUESDAY AS LEE
TROF DEVELOPS AS INVERTED TROF FORMS ALONG FRONT RANGE AND EXTENDS
INTO EASTERN WY. DRY...STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER REST OF FORECAST
AREA.

SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
RIDGE AXIS REMAINING N-S OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS-NE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER WESTERN SD WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST...
BUT CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. KEPT MAX TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AS WINDS AND CLOUD COVER INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A STRONG
FULL LATTITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE MAPS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER ONLY MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR THIS ACTIVITY AND STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OF SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS MAY FORM OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHEAST WYOMING LATE THIS EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS63 KUNR 281131
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
531 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHARPEN AS TROF OVER EASTERN US
DEEPENS AND ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES WEST COAST. SERIES OF SHORT
WAVE WILL CROSS RIDGE ONTO THE PLAINS. FIRST WAVE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL CROSS WY TODAY AND MOVE INTO NE. EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THETA-E RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN
WY...AND CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 500 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CIN.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER THE SAME AREA TUESDAY AS LEE
TROF DEVELOPS AS INVERTED TROF FORMS ALONG FRONT RANGE AND EXTENDS
INTO EASTERN WY. DRY...STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER REST OF FORECAST
AREA.

SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
RIDGE AXIS REMAINING N-S OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS-NE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER WESTERN SD WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST...
BUT CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. KEPT MAX TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AS WINDS AND CLOUD COVER INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A STRONG
FULL LATTITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE MAPS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER ONLY MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR THIS ACTIVITY AND STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OF SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS MAY FORM OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHEAST WYOMING LATE THIS EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS63 KUNR 280905
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
305 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHARPEN AS TROF OVER EASTERN US
DEEPENS AND ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES WEST COAST. SERIES OF SHORT
WAVE WILL CROSS RIDGE ONTO THE PLAINS. FIRST WAVE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL CROSS WY TODAY AND MOVE INTO NE. EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THETA-E RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN
WY...AND CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 500 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CIN.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER THE SAME AREA TUESDAY AS LEE
TROF DEVELOPS AS INVERTED TROF FORMS ALONG FRONT RANGE AND EXTENDS
INTO EASTERN WY. DRY...STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER REST OF FORECAST
AREA.

SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
RIDGE AXIS REMAINING N-S OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS-NE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER WESTERN SD WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST...
BUT CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. KEPT MAX TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AS WINDS AND CLOUD COVER INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A STRONG
FULL LATTITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE MAPS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER ONLY MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR THIS ACTIVITY AND STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OF SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS63 KUNR 280905
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
305 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHARPEN AS TROF OVER EASTERN US
DEEPENS AND ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES WEST COAST. SERIES OF SHORT
WAVE WILL CROSS RIDGE ONTO THE PLAINS. FIRST WAVE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL CROSS WY TODAY AND MOVE INTO NE. EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THETA-E RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN
WY...AND CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 500 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CIN.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER THE SAME AREA TUESDAY AS LEE
TROF DEVELOPS AS INVERTED TROF FORMS ALONG FRONT RANGE AND EXTENDS
INTO EASTERN WY. DRY...STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER REST OF FORECAST
AREA.

SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
RIDGE AXIS REMAINING N-S OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS-NE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER WESTERN SD WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST...
BUT CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. KEPT MAX TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AS WINDS AND CLOUD COVER INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A STRONG
FULL LATTITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE MAPS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER ONLY MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR THIS ACTIVITY AND STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OF SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER






000
FXUS63 KFSD 280847
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
347 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHEAR VORTICITY AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...
AND WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING BY SEEMS TO HAVE INCREASED SOME OF THE
LOWER LEVEL /SUB 850 HPA/ THETA E ADVECTION AND PUSHED A WEAK
FRONTOGENETIC AXIS INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CWA. A FEW
SPRINKLES AND VERY LIGHT RAINFALL NOTED IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL
MN AND WILL LIKELY ROTATE ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OR SO THROUGH
THE PRE 12Z TIME FRAME. PLENTY OF CLOUDS PROMISE TO PERSIST ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I29 CORRIDOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THIS
CONCERNING TO MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL. FURTHER WEST...WILL HAVE
A BETTER TIME HEATING...BUT WILL EVEN LEAD TO A LESSER COVERAGE FLAT
CUMULUS.  WILL PROBABLY BE A FAIRLY LATE DAY MAX...AS SOME SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND THINNING OF CLOUD LAYER EVIDENT EVEN IN THE
NORTH/EAST. SHOULD RANGE FROM LOWER 70S IN THE EAST...TO NEAR 80
WEST.  OTHERWISE...FAIRLY STRONG CONSENSUS OF OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATE MUCH OF SW MN/NW IA WILL END UP WITH
50-100 J/KG OF SHALLOW ML CAPE. WOULD STILL LIKE TO SEE SOME CLOUD
BEARING TEMPS CREEP INTO THE SUB ZERO C RANGE...BUT EVEN SOME LESSER
EFFICIENT MODE FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EAST OF I 29...STARTING BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AND LEAVE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COULD BE A FEW CLOUDS
ENCROACHING ON THE WEST FROM HIGH PLAINS CONVECTIVE BLOW-OFF...AND
EVEN A FEW PATCHES LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR EAST. ALL IN
ALL...SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DECENT RADIATIVE COOLING NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR MASS...SO KEPT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE OVERALL. THE WAY TEMPERATURES HAVE BEHAVED TONIGHT IN CLEAR
AREAS LENDS SUPPORT TO THE COLD NUMBERS.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE
MID AND LONG RANGE. A WELL AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BE THE NORM AND CONTINUE TO
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL READINGS. VERY WEAK FLOW...PARTICULARLY AT
THE SURFACE WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY
LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AROUND LESS THAN 10 MPH. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME DAILY SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...MIXING SHOULD BE
DECENT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE FOLLOWING SOME OF THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT NOT MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...PERHAPS
APPROACHING 90 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD BY THE WEEKEND.

PATTERN REMAINS DRY WITH VERY LITTLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL ACTIVITY.
ANY SHORTWAVES OF NOTE CONTINUE TO TREND FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST TO
REMAIN NON EVENTS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM









000
FXUS63 KFSD 280847
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
347 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHEAR VORTICITY AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...
AND WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING BY SEEMS TO HAVE INCREASED SOME OF THE
LOWER LEVEL /SUB 850 HPA/ THETA E ADVECTION AND PUSHED A WEAK
FRONTOGENETIC AXIS INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CWA. A FEW
SPRINKLES AND VERY LIGHT RAINFALL NOTED IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL
MN AND WILL LIKELY ROTATE ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OR SO THROUGH
THE PRE 12Z TIME FRAME. PLENTY OF CLOUDS PROMISE TO PERSIST ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I29 CORRIDOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THIS
CONCERNING TO MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL. FURTHER WEST...WILL HAVE
A BETTER TIME HEATING...BUT WILL EVEN LEAD TO A LESSER COVERAGE FLAT
CUMULUS.  WILL PROBABLY BE A FAIRLY LATE DAY MAX...AS SOME SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND THINNING OF CLOUD LAYER EVIDENT EVEN IN THE
NORTH/EAST. SHOULD RANGE FROM LOWER 70S IN THE EAST...TO NEAR 80
WEST.  OTHERWISE...FAIRLY STRONG CONSENSUS OF OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATE MUCH OF SW MN/NW IA WILL END UP WITH
50-100 J/KG OF SHALLOW ML CAPE. WOULD STILL LIKE TO SEE SOME CLOUD
BEARING TEMPS CREEP INTO THE SUB ZERO C RANGE...BUT EVEN SOME LESSER
EFFICIENT MODE FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EAST OF I 29...STARTING BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AND LEAVE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COULD BE A FEW CLOUDS
ENCROACHING ON THE WEST FROM HIGH PLAINS CONVECTIVE BLOW-OFF...AND
EVEN A FEW PATCHES LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR EAST. ALL IN
ALL...SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DECENT RADIATIVE COOLING NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR MASS...SO KEPT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE OVERALL. THE WAY TEMPERATURES HAVE BEHAVED TONIGHT IN CLEAR
AREAS LENDS SUPPORT TO THE COLD NUMBERS.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE
MID AND LONG RANGE. A WELL AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. COOL NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BE THE NORM AND CONTINUE TO
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL READINGS. VERY WEAK FLOW...PARTICULARLY AT
THE SURFACE WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY
LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AROUND LESS THAN 10 MPH. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME DAILY SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...MIXING SHOULD BE
DECENT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE FOLLOWING SOME OF THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A VERY SUBTLE WARMING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT NOT MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...PERHAPS
APPROACHING 90 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD BY THE WEEKEND.

PATTERN REMAINS DRY WITH VERY LITTLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL ACTIVITY.
ANY SHORTWAVES OF NOTE CONTINUE TO TREND FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST TO
REMAIN NON EVENTS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM








000
FXUS63 KABR 280834
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
334 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN AREA OF STRATUS AROUND 6KFT IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. NAM PROFILES SHOW ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK INSTABILITY...SO
ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND ITS PERIPHERY
ONCE THE SUN COMES UP. THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS AS PARTIAL
CLEARING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH STABLE CONDITIONS. A SLOW WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS WELL COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS
TODAY AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD.



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY THE SAME THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE 50H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US PATTERN REMAINS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
EASTERN US TROUGH WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAYBE SOME
EASTWARD MOVEMENT LATE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...
LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 280834
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
334 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN AREA OF STRATUS AROUND 6KFT IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. NAM PROFILES SHOW ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK INSTABILITY...SO
ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND ITS PERIPHERY
ONCE THE SUN COMES UP. THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS AS PARTIAL
CLEARING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH STABLE CONDITIONS. A SLOW WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS WELL COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS
TODAY AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD.



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY THE SAME THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE 50H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US PATTERN REMAINS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
EASTERN US TROUGH WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAYBE SOME
EASTWARD MOVEMENT LATE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...
LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 280834
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
334 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN AREA OF STRATUS AROUND 6KFT IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. NAM PROFILES SHOW ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK INSTABILITY...SO
ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND ITS PERIPHERY
ONCE THE SUN COMES UP. THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS AS PARTIAL
CLEARING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH STABLE CONDITIONS. A SLOW WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS WELL COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS
TODAY AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD.



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY THE SAME THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE 50H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US PATTERN REMAINS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
EASTERN US TROUGH WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAYBE SOME
EASTWARD MOVEMENT LATE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...
LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 280834
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
334 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN AREA OF STRATUS AROUND 6KFT IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. NAM PROFILES SHOW ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK INSTABILITY...SO
ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND ITS PERIPHERY
ONCE THE SUN COMES UP. THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS AS PARTIAL
CLEARING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH STABLE CONDITIONS. A SLOW WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS WELL COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS
TODAY AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD.



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY THE SAME THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE 50H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US PATTERN REMAINS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
EASTERN US TROUGH WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAYBE SOME
EASTWARD MOVEMENT LATE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...
LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 280539 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1239 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE EMERGENCE OF THE POSITIVE PNA PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CHALLENGE. WITH LESS CLOUDINESS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER A LITTLE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING JAMES
RIVER AND BIG SIOUX RIVER VALLEYS...WHERE COLD AIR DRAINAGE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. OTHERWISE A SLOW WARM UP IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK.



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SPINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH NO REAL NOTABLE WAVES OF
ENERGY IDENTIFIED AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED THE DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. 850 MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS CELSIUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL RISE TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S CELSIUS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 280539 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1239 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE EMERGENCE OF THE POSITIVE PNA PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CHALLENGE. WITH LESS CLOUDINESS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER A LITTLE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING JAMES
RIVER AND BIG SIOUX RIVER VALLEYS...WHERE COLD AIR DRAINAGE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. OTHERWISE A SLOW WARM UP IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK.



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SPINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH NO REAL NOTABLE WAVES OF
ENERGY IDENTIFIED AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED THE DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. 850 MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS CELSIUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL RISE TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S CELSIUS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 280520
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1120 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS
THE DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT. WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY FIXED AS THE CURRENT NW PAC MID LEVEL
IMPULSE ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND HEADS TOWARD THE REGION MONDAY. QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE
TOPPING IMPULSE WILL REFLECT LL POS THETA-E ADV AT THE BASE OF AN
ADVECTING EML AND POSSIBLY SUPPORT ISOLD SHRA/TS MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SW HALF.

TONIGHT...LINGERING BL CLOUDS OVER THE NE THROUGH EAST WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING 4-5 KFT CLOUDS ACROSS
SCENTRAL SD THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SLACKENING WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT COOL CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOW IN THE 50S AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.

MONDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OF THE REGION WITH WINDS VEERING
EASTERLY. RIDGE TOPPING IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WILL ADVECT
INTO NORTHERN WY MON AFTERNOON SUPPORTING TS DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
FA. THIS IMPULSE WILL SHIFT ESE INTO THE FA MONDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING ISOLD CONVECTION SW HALF AS A LL POS THETA-E ADV REGIME
DEVELOPS. POSSIBLE TS CLUSTERS /MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN/ MAY PUSH
INTO THE WESTERN FA EARLY EVENING...WITH OTHER ELEVATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT SW HALF. IN ADDITION...THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES UPPER
TROUGH MAY SUPPORT SOME ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN
COLLOCATION OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WITH LL POS THETA-E ADV.
HENCE...CARRIED LOW POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT NE WY THROUGH
SCENTRAL SD...MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN GRADIENT OF H7 THETA-E.
OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS...WITH WEAK NW FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. A SERIES OF
UPPER WAVE WILL DRIFT ACROSS ID/WY/ERN CO TUE TO WED. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES OF STORMS TO NE WY INTO SW SD TUE/TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE BLKHLS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 280520
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1120 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS
THE DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT. WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY FIXED AS THE CURRENT NW PAC MID LEVEL
IMPULSE ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND HEADS TOWARD THE REGION MONDAY. QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE
TOPPING IMPULSE WILL REFLECT LL POS THETA-E ADV AT THE BASE OF AN
ADVECTING EML AND POSSIBLY SUPPORT ISOLD SHRA/TS MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SW HALF.

TONIGHT...LINGERING BL CLOUDS OVER THE NE THROUGH EAST WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING 4-5 KFT CLOUDS ACROSS
SCENTRAL SD THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SLACKENING WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT COOL CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOW IN THE 50S AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.

MONDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OF THE REGION WITH WINDS VEERING
EASTERLY. RIDGE TOPPING IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WILL ADVECT
INTO NORTHERN WY MON AFTERNOON SUPPORTING TS DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
FA. THIS IMPULSE WILL SHIFT ESE INTO THE FA MONDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING ISOLD CONVECTION SW HALF AS A LL POS THETA-E ADV REGIME
DEVELOPS. POSSIBLE TS CLUSTERS /MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN/ MAY PUSH
INTO THE WESTERN FA EARLY EVENING...WITH OTHER ELEVATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT SW HALF. IN ADDITION...THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES UPPER
TROUGH MAY SUPPORT SOME ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN
COLLOCATION OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WITH LL POS THETA-E ADV.
HENCE...CARRIED LOW POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT NE WY THROUGH
SCENTRAL SD...MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN GRADIENT OF H7 THETA-E.
OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS...WITH WEAK NW FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. A SERIES OF
UPPER WAVE WILL DRIFT ACROSS ID/WY/ERN CO TUE TO WED. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES OF STORMS TO NE WY INTO SW SD TUE/TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE BLKHLS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON






000
FXUS63 KFSD 280328
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1028 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A SEASONALLY COOL LATE JULY DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED
STATES...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH 70 IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THROUGH THE EVENING...AN EXPANSIVE STRATOCU DECK WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS CLOUD FIELD WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR A THICKER CLOUD BAND OVER THE NERN CWA. A
VERY COOL OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES FALL WELL INTO THE
50S.

MONDAY...GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE LARGER TROUGH...DROPPING DUE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.  A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. HAVE
ALSO KNOCKED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED
BY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. A
PRETTY AMPLIFIED AND STAGNANT PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
AND RIDGING TO THE WEST. OUR CWA WILL THUS REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW
AND ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE THERMAL RIDGE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
PRETTY LIGHT...AND SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH JUST SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER FORCING IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW...SO DESPITE THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...LOOKS
LIKE WE SHOULD STAY DRY. WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY PASS TO OUR EAST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WITH BEST FORCING TO OUR EAST AND
MODELS PRETTY DRY...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW.

GFS REMAINS A BIT WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID
TEENS...SLOWLY WARMING AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS AND AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES...MIXING SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH THE WEEK...ALLOWING US TO
FULLY REALIZE THESE TEMPERATURES ALOFT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID 70S
TO LOW 80S ON TUESDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THE REST OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY AS WELL...AND STAYED ON
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THOSE
NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...JM






000
FXUS63 KFSD 280328
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1028 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A SEASONALLY COOL LATE JULY DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED
STATES...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH 70 IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THROUGH THE EVENING...AN EXPANSIVE STRATOCU DECK WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS CLOUD FIELD WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR A THICKER CLOUD BAND OVER THE NERN CWA. A
VERY COOL OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES FALL WELL INTO THE
50S.

MONDAY...GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE LARGER TROUGH...DROPPING DUE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.  A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. HAVE
ALSO KNOCKED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED
BY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. A
PRETTY AMPLIFIED AND STAGNANT PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
AND RIDGING TO THE WEST. OUR CWA WILL THUS REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW
AND ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE THERMAL RIDGE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
PRETTY LIGHT...AND SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH JUST SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER FORCING IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW...SO DESPITE THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...LOOKS
LIKE WE SHOULD STAY DRY. WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY PASS TO OUR EAST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WITH BEST FORCING TO OUR EAST AND
MODELS PRETTY DRY...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW.

GFS REMAINS A BIT WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID
TEENS...SLOWLY WARMING AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS AND AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES...MIXING SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH THE WEEK...ALLOWING US TO
FULLY REALIZE THESE TEMPERATURES ALOFT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID 70S
TO LOW 80S ON TUESDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THE REST OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY AS WELL...AND STAYED ON
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THOSE
NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...JM






000
FXUS63 KFSD 280328
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1028 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A SEASONALLY COOL LATE JULY DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED
STATES...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH 70 IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THROUGH THE EVENING...AN EXPANSIVE STRATOCU DECK WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS CLOUD FIELD WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR A THICKER CLOUD BAND OVER THE NERN CWA. A
VERY COOL OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES FALL WELL INTO THE
50S.

MONDAY...GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE LARGER TROUGH...DROPPING DUE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.  A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. HAVE
ALSO KNOCKED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED
BY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. A
PRETTY AMPLIFIED AND STAGNANT PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
AND RIDGING TO THE WEST. OUR CWA WILL THUS REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW
AND ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE THERMAL RIDGE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
PRETTY LIGHT...AND SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH JUST SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER FORCING IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW...SO DESPITE THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...LOOKS
LIKE WE SHOULD STAY DRY. WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY PASS TO OUR EAST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WITH BEST FORCING TO OUR EAST AND
MODELS PRETTY DRY...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW.

GFS REMAINS A BIT WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID
TEENS...SLOWLY WARMING AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS AND AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES...MIXING SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH THE WEEK...ALLOWING US TO
FULLY REALIZE THESE TEMPERATURES ALOFT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID 70S
TO LOW 80S ON TUESDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THE REST OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY AS WELL...AND STAYED ON
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THOSE
NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...JM






000
FXUS63 KFSD 280328
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1028 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A SEASONALLY COOL LATE JULY DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED
STATES...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH 70 IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THROUGH THE EVENING...AN EXPANSIVE STRATOCU DECK WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS CLOUD FIELD WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR A THICKER CLOUD BAND OVER THE NERN CWA. A
VERY COOL OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES FALL WELL INTO THE
50S.

MONDAY...GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE LARGER TROUGH...DROPPING DUE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.  A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. HAVE
ALSO KNOCKED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED
BY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. A
PRETTY AMPLIFIED AND STAGNANT PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
AND RIDGING TO THE WEST. OUR CWA WILL THUS REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW
AND ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE THERMAL RIDGE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
PRETTY LIGHT...AND SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH JUST SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER FORCING IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW...SO DESPITE THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...LOOKS
LIKE WE SHOULD STAY DRY. WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY PASS TO OUR EAST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WITH BEST FORCING TO OUR EAST AND
MODELS PRETTY DRY...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW.

GFS REMAINS A BIT WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID
TEENS...SLOWLY WARMING AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS AND AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES...MIXING SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH THE WEEK...ALLOWING US TO
FULLY REALIZE THESE TEMPERATURES ALOFT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID 70S
TO LOW 80S ON TUESDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THE REST OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY AS WELL...AND STAYED ON
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THOSE
NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...JM






000
FXUS63 KABR 280218 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
918 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA...WHILE THE WEST HAS CLEARED OFF. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY CONDITIONS
ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE EMERGENCE OF THE POSITIVE PNA PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CHALLENGE. WITH LESS CLOUDINESS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER A LITTLE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING JAMES
RIVER AND BIG SIOUX RIVER VALLEYS...WHERE COLD AIR DRAINAGE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. OTHERWISE A SLOW WARM UP IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SPINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH NO REAL NOTABLE WAVES OF
ENERGY IDENTIFIED AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED THE DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. 850 MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS CELSIUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL RISE TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S CELSIUS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A BKN-OVC DECK OF MAINLY VFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CWA
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THEN WILL SCATTER OUT OR CLEAR. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 280218 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
918 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA...WHILE THE WEST HAS CLEARED OFF. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY CONDITIONS
ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE EMERGENCE OF THE POSITIVE PNA PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CHALLENGE. WITH LESS CLOUDINESS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER A LITTLE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING JAMES
RIVER AND BIG SIOUX RIVER VALLEYS...WHERE COLD AIR DRAINAGE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. OTHERWISE A SLOW WARM UP IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SPINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH NO REAL NOTABLE WAVES OF
ENERGY IDENTIFIED AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED THE DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. 850 MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS CELSIUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL RISE TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S CELSIUS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A BKN-OVC DECK OF MAINLY VFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CWA
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THEN WILL SCATTER OUT OR CLEAR. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 272322 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
622 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE EMERGENCE OF THE POSITIVE PNA PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CHALLENGE. WITH LESS CLOUDINESS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER A LITTLE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING JAMES
RIVER AND BIG SIOUX RIVER VALLEYS...WHERE COLD AIR DRAINAGE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. OTHERWISE A SLOW WARM UP IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SPINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH NO REAL NOTABLE WAVES OF
ENERGY IDENTIFIED AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED THE DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. 850 MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS CELSIUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL RISE TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S CELSIUS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A BKN-OVC DECK OF MAINLY VFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CWA
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THEN WILL SCATTER OUT OR CLEAR. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KUNR 272312
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
512 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS
THE DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT. WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY FIXED AS THE CURRENT NW PAC MID LEVEL
IMPULSE ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND HEADS TOWARD THE REGION MONDAY. QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE
TOPPING IMPULSE WILL REFLECT LL POS THETA-E ADV AT THE BASE OF AN
ADVECTING EML AND POSSIBLY SUPPORT ISOLD SHRA/TS MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SW HALF.

TONIGHT...LINGERING BL CLOUDS OVER THE NE THROUGH EAST WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING 4-5 KFT CLOUDS ACROSS
SCENTRAL SD THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SLACKENING WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT COOL CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOW IN THE 50S AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.

MONDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OF THE REGION WITH WINDS VEERING
EASTERLY. RIDGE TOPPING IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WILL ADVECT
INTO NORTHERN WY MON AFTERNOON SUPPORTING TS DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
FA. THIS IMPULSE WILL SHIFT ESE INTO THE FA MONDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING ISOLD CONVECTION SW HALF AS A LL POS THETA-E ADV REGIME
DEVELOPS. POSSIBLE TS CLUSTERS /MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN/ MAY PUSH
INTO THE WESTERN FA EARLY EVENING...WITH OTHER ELEVATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT SW HALF. IN ADDITION...THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES UPPER
TROUGH MAY SUPPORT SOME ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN
COLLOCATION OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WITH LL POS THETA-E ADV.
HENCE...CARRIED LOW POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT NE WY THROUGH
SCENTRAL SD...MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN GRADIENT OF H7 THETA-E.
OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS...WITH WEAK NW FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. A SERIES OF
UPPER WAVE WILL DRIFT ACROSS ID/WY/ERN CO TUE TO WED. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES OF STORMS TO NE WY INTO SW SD TUE/TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE BLKHLS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 511 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON





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