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000
FXUS63 KABR 250537
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1237 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED MOISTURE WERE
RESULTING IN HIGH BASED VIRGA/LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. HAVE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...THE BREEZY/WINDY
AND DRY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FALL OFF BY LATE EVENING. THE RH AND
WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...WITH A WEAK/DIFFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TONIGHT...EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECOUPLE LATE THIS EVENING
AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FRIDAY WILL
BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH NOT MUCH FOR WINDS ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
CWA WILL START TO RECEIVE THE INFLUENCES OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US AND INTO THE CENTRAL US
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKING OFF
OF THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH WAA IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL PICK UP
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
IN EASTERN COLORADO. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
BRINGING IN COOLER AIR FOR SATURDAY. MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER LIFT INTENSIFIES OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH
HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT SITS AND SPINS OVER THE REGION DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD. MODELS ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A CLOSED
LOW INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. MODELS SHOWING THE
MAIN SURGE OF RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE DRY SLOT ON MONDAY...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO
REMAIN IN THE REGION ALL THE WAY INTO TUESDAY.

WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH GENERALLY 50S OR
UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS. MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP AN INTERESTING PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A HUGE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...KEEPING TEMPS ACROSS THIS AREA
SOMEWHAT ON THE COOL SIDE...NOT NOTHING TOO EXTREME.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KABR/KATY COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND
15Z. OTHERWISE...GOOD VFR IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...FOWLE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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000
FXUS63 KFSD 250519
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1219 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE EARLIER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ROGUE THUNDER ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA HAVE PULLED EAST AND DISSIPATED WITH LOSS
OF DIURNAL SUPPORT AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PV FEATURE THROUGH
MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE...MOST INTERESTING ASPECT TO WATCH FROM LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE WORK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SIOUX FALLS AREA AND JUST INTO MN AND IA. LOOKING AT
RADAR VELOCITY...CAN MAKE A STRONG ARGUMENT THAT BOUNDARY WILL BE
UNABLE TO PROGRESS ANY MORE TONIGHT AND IS LIKELY TO WASH OUT
NEARLY IN PLACE...IF NOT BACK WESTWARD A BIT BEFORE DISSIPATING AS
A FEW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST. THIS LEADS TO CONCERN THAT
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS WITH LACK OF
MIXING AND RECENT RAINFALL FOR AREAS NEAR/EAST OF THIS DISSIPATING
FEATURE. DO HAVE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WILL COMPLICATE
SKIES LATER TONIGHT...AND WILL CERTAINLY KEEP WHAT IS A MINOR
THREAT FOR PATCHY FOG EVEN MORE SO. NUDGED SOME TEMPS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER THIRD OR SO GUIDANCE RANGE...
ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS OF VERY DRY AIR WHICH ARE WEST OF THE
CURRENT BOUNDARY WITH EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS.  SHOULD BE A PLEASANT
FRIDAY WITH MIXING SUPPORTING MILD TEMPS AND FOR ONCE NOT MUCH
WIND ENERGY AROUND TO MIX DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

RELATIVELY MIXY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND GRADIENT WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WITH GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...CONSIDERED ADDING
FOG MENTION IN NW IOWA WHERE MIXING IS NOT AS STRONG AND HEAVIER
RAIN FELL.  STILL THINK THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO FOR NOW LEFT MENTION
OUT.  WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW AND WINDS ALOFT GENERALLY IN THE 10
- 15 KNOT RANGE....SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY PLEASANT SPRING DAY ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.
STILL WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON FRIDAY WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR RESULTING IN RH VALUES OF 20-30 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH
ADVANCES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BY THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES DURING THE
DAY...RESULTING IN INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMING IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...WITH SOME 70S IN OUR SOUTH.

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE PACIFIC TROUGH EMERGES IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...LIFTS
NORTHWARD TO NEAR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA THEN
SLOWLY WOBBLES EASTWARD. STILL SEEING MODEL DIFFERENCES...
PARTICULARLY IN THE GRADUAL PROGRESSION EAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA.  THE GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z RUNS IS FOR A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK...WHICH RESULTS IN SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES AND
A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS ARE
ALSO TRENDING TOWARDS A SLOWER EXIT OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ON THURSDAY.

GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
ON SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS CAN MANAGE TO INITIATE. STORMS
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS. COULD SEE PRECIPITATION BRIEFLY TAPER OFF
LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AS MUCH STRONGER
LIFT AND FORCING PUSHES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY...SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL AGAIN BECOME NUMEROUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
SHEAR REMAINS STRONG AT AROUND 40 KT...THOUGH MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL...ALONG WITH DECENT INSTABILITY WILL POSE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MOISTURE WILL
BE MORE COPIOUS ON SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY...SO THINK THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS
THE LARGE SYSTEM DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WILL RESULT IN A MILDER SYSTEM OVERALL...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND BEYOND. DID TREND HIGHS
AND LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT EXPECT HIGHS TO GENERALLY TOP OUT IN
THE 50S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014

THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG AND EAST OF I 29 INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY...LIKELY INVOLVING SPOTTY LIFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...THE FOG POTENTIAL LOOKS TOO
ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES...SO LEFT IT
OUT. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE VFR THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS...TURNING
TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ






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000
FXUS63 KUNR 250456
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1056 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH MEAN HEIGHT RISES PUSHING EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO WEAK IMPULSES WILL EJECT OUT OF
THE MEAN UPPER UPPER LOW...AND INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA...ESP FRI NIGHT. WAA
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH. SFC PRESSURE FALLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS SHIFTING SE AND INCREASING PER LEE SIDE
TROUGHING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW.

TONIGHT...WEAK ELEVATED THETA-E ADV /EVIDENCED WELL AT H7/ WILL
SUPPORT AN AREA OF WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE NW ZONES THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SPRINKLES WHEN COUPLED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. DRY LL PROFILES AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE PRECLUDES A SHRA MENTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S /40S
IN THE LEE OF THE BH/.

FRIDAY...SW FLOW WITH INCREASING ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL
EXPECTING ENOUGH INSOLATION TO SUPPORT FAIRLY DEEP MIXING...PUSHING
TEMPS INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES. DEEP MIXING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NE WY AND THE WESTERN BH WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH AN ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA THERE LATE FRI AFTERNOON. NAM LI/S
CERTAINLY HINT AT THIS AND A FEW HIRES MODELS DO GENERATE
CONVECTION. HAVE ADDED A LOW POP FOR THIS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHRA ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY THE NW HALF...ALBEIT
ONLY ISOLD TO SCT. HAVE RETAINED A SHRA MENTION FRIDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING THE HIGHER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING SFC
PRESSURE FALLS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A PARTIALLY MIXED BL THROUGH THE
NIGHT MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED MOST PLACES. HAVE
BUMPED LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO WILL CREATE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD...BRINGING IN WARM AND MOIST
AIR. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
GFS BRINGING IT INTO SD SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF KEEPING IT
FARTHER SOUTH IN NEBRASKA. BOTH WRAP COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE CWA
BEHIND THE LOW...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR THE EVENT TO
BE MAINLY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ON THE SD PLAINS. SNOW IS MORE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS WHERE LOWS DIP BELOW
FREEZING SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. ALSO HAVE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE INSTABILITY IS
BETTER.

MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT WHEN THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD...ENERGY NORTHEAST OF IT WILL BE TAKEN IN AND CIRCULATED
BACK AROUND THE LOW...SLOWING IT DOWN AND ACTUALLY CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO RETROGRADE. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION AND COOL WEATHER MAY
STICK AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS VERY MOIST...WITH PWATS 180-200% OF NORMAL. MANY AREAS MAY
RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OF QPF...WITH THE BLACK HILLS POSSIBLY
RECEIVING MORE THAN TWO INCHES. ADDED MODERATE PRECIPITATION WORDING
IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LCL MVFR VSBY
POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 250456
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1056 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH MEAN HEIGHT RISES PUSHING EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO WEAK IMPULSES WILL EJECT OUT OF
THE MEAN UPPER UPPER LOW...AND INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA...ESP FRI NIGHT. WAA
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH. SFC PRESSURE FALLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS SHIFTING SE AND INCREASING PER LEE SIDE
TROUGHING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW.

TONIGHT...WEAK ELEVATED THETA-E ADV /EVIDENCED WELL AT H7/ WILL
SUPPORT AN AREA OF WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE NW ZONES THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SPRINKLES WHEN COUPLED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. DRY LL PROFILES AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE PRECLUDES A SHRA MENTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S /40S
IN THE LEE OF THE BH/.

FRIDAY...SW FLOW WITH INCREASING ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL
EXPECTING ENOUGH INSOLATION TO SUPPORT FAIRLY DEEP MIXING...PUSHING
TEMPS INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES. DEEP MIXING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NE WY AND THE WESTERN BH WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH AN ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA THERE LATE FRI AFTERNOON. NAM LI/S
CERTAINLY HINT AT THIS AND A FEW HIRES MODELS DO GENERATE
CONVECTION. HAVE ADDED A LOW POP FOR THIS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHRA ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY THE NW HALF...ALBEIT
ONLY ISOLD TO SCT. HAVE RETAINED A SHRA MENTION FRIDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING THE HIGHER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING SFC
PRESSURE FALLS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A PARTIALLY MIXED BL THROUGH THE
NIGHT MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED MOST PLACES. HAVE
BUMPED LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO WILL CREATE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD...BRINGING IN WARM AND MOIST
AIR. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
GFS BRINGING IT INTO SD SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF KEEPING IT
FARTHER SOUTH IN NEBRASKA. BOTH WRAP COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE CWA
BEHIND THE LOW...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR THE EVENT TO
BE MAINLY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ON THE SD PLAINS. SNOW IS MORE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS WHERE LOWS DIP BELOW
FREEZING SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. ALSO HAVE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE INSTABILITY IS
BETTER.

MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT WHEN THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD...ENERGY NORTHEAST OF IT WILL BE TAKEN IN AND CIRCULATED
BACK AROUND THE LOW...SLOWING IT DOWN AND ACTUALLY CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO RETROGRADE. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION AND COOL WEATHER MAY
STICK AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS VERY MOIST...WITH PWATS 180-200% OF NORMAL. MANY AREAS MAY
RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OF QPF...WITH THE BLACK HILLS POSSIBLY
RECEIVING MORE THAN TWO INCHES. ADDED MODERATE PRECIPITATION WORDING
IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LCL MVFR VSBY
POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KFSD 250245
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
945 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE EARLIER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ROGUE THUNDER ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA HAVE PULLED EAST AND DISSIPATED WITH LOSS
OF DIURNAL SUPPORT AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PV FEATURE THROUGH
MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE...MOST INTERESTING ASPECT TO WATCH FROM LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE WORK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SIOUX FALLS AREA AND JUST INTO MN AND IA. LOOKING AT
RADAR VELOCITY...CAN MAKE A STRONG ARGUMENT THAT BOUNDARY WILL BE
UNABLE TO PROGRESS ANY MORE TONIGHT AND IS LIKELY TO WASH OUT
NEARLY IN PLACE...IF NOT BACK WESTWARD A BIT BEFORE DISSIPATING AS
A FEW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST. THIS LEADS TO CONCERN THAT
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS WITH LACK OF
MIXING AND RECENT RAINFALL FOR AREAS NEAR/EAST OF THIS DISSIPATING
FEATURE. DO HAVE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WILL COMPLICATE
SKIES LATER TONIGHT...AND WILL CERTAINLY KEEP WHAT IS A MINOR
THREAT FOR PATCHY FOG EVEN MORE SO. NUDGED SOME TEMPS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER THIRD OR SO GUIDANCE RANGE...
ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS OF VERY DRY AIR WHICH ARE WEST OF THE
CURRENT BOUNDARY WITH EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS.  SHOULD BE A PLEASANT
FRIDAY WITH MIXING SUPPORTING MILD TEMPS AND FOR ONCE NOT MUCH
WIND ENERGY AROUND TO MIX DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

RELATIVELY MIXY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND GRADIENT WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WITH GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...CONSIDERED ADDING
FOG MENTION IN NW IOWA WHERE MIXING IS NOT AS STRONG AND HEAVIER
RAIN FELL.  STILL THINK THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO FOR NOW LEFT MENTION
OUT.  WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW AND WINDS ALOFT GENERALLY IN THE 10
- 15 KNOT RANGE....SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY PLEASANT SPRING DAY ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.
STILL WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON FRIDAY WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR RESULTING IN RH VALUES OF 20-30 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH
ADVANCES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BY THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES DURING THE
DAY...RESULTING IN INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMING IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...WITH SOME 70S IN OUR SOUTH.

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE PACIFIC TROUGH EMERGES IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...LIFTS
NORTHWARD TO NEAR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA THEN
SLOWLY WOBBLES EASTWARD. STILL SEEING MODEL DIFFERENCES...
PARTICULARLY IN THE GRADUAL PROGRESSION EAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA.  THE GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z RUNS IS FOR A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK...WHICH RESULTS IN SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES AND
A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS ARE
ALSO TRENDING TOWARDS A SLOWER EXIT OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ON THURSDAY.

GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
ON SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS CAN MANAGE TO INITIATE. STORMS
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS. COULD SEE PRECIPITATION BRIEFLY TAPER OFF
LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AS MUCH STRONGER
LIFT AND FORCING PUSHES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY...SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL AGAIN BECOME NUMEROUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
SHEAR REMAINS STRONG AT AROUND 40 KT...THOUGH MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL...ALONG WITH DECENT INSTABILITY WILL POSE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MOISTURE WILL
BE MORE COPIOUS ON SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY...SO THINK THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS
THE LARGE SYSTEM DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WILL RESULT IN A MILDER SYSTEM OVERALL...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND BEYOND. DID TREND HIGHS
AND LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT EXPECT HIGHS TO GENERALLY TOP OUT IN
THE 50S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH TOMORROW.
THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS
TIME EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD







000
FXUS63 KFSD 250054
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
754 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

RELATIVELY MIXY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND GRADIENT WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WITH GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...CONSIDERED ADDING
FOG MENTION IN NW IOWA WHERE MIXING IS NOT AS STRONG AND HEAVIER
RAIN FELL.  STILL THINK THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO FOR NOW LEFT MENTION
OUT.  WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW AND WINDS ALOFT GENERALLY IN THE 10
- 15 KNOT RANGE....SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY PLEASANT SPRING DAY ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.
STILL WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON FRIDAY WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR RESULTING IN RH VALUES OF 20-30 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH
ADVANCES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BY THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES DURING THE
DAY...RESULTING IN INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMING IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...WITH SOME 70S IN OUR SOUTH.

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE PACIFIC TROUGH EMERGES IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...LIFTS
NORTHWARD TO NEAR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA THEN
SLOWLY WOBBLES EASTWARD. STILL SEEING MODEL DIFFERENCES...
PARTICULARLY IN THE GRADUAL PROGRESSION EAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA.  THE GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z RUNS IS FOR A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK...WHICH RESULTS IN SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES AND
A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS ARE
ALSO TRENDING TOWARDS A SLOWER EXIT OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ON THURSDAY.

GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
ON SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS CAN MANAGE TO INITIATE. STORMS
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS. COULD SEE PRECIPITATION BRIEFLY TAPER OFF
LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AS MUCH STRONGER
LIFT AND FORCING PUSHES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY...SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL AGAIN BECOME NUMEROUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
SHEAR REMAINS STRONG AT AROUND 40 KT...THOUGH MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL...ALONG WITH DECENT INSTABILITY WILL POSE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MOISTURE WILL
BE MORE COPIOUS ON SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY...SO THINK THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS
THE LARGE SYSTEM DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WILL RESULT IN A MILDER SYSTEM OVERALL...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND BEYOND. DID TREND HIGHS
AND LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT EXPECT HIGHS TO GENERALLY TOP OUT IN
THE 50S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH TOMORROW.
THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS
TIME EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA.

&&


.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD








000
FXUS63 KABR 250018 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
718 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BEGIN RECOVERING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING
WIND SPEEDS. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD
FORECAST.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED MOISTURE WERE
RESULTING IN HIGH BASED VIRGA/LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. HAVE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...THE BREEZY/WINDY
AND DRY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FALL OFF BY LATE EVENING. THE RH AND
WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...WITH A WEAK/DIFFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TONIGHT...EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECOUPLE LATE THIS EVENING
AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FRIDAY WILL
BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH NOT MUCH FOR WINDS ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
CWA WILL START TO RECEIVE THE INFLUENCES OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US AND INTO THE CENTRAL US
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKING OFF
OF THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH WAA IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL PICK UP
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
IN EASTERN COLORADO. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
BRINGING IN COOLER AIR FOR SATURDAY. MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER LIFT INTENSIFIES OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH
HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT SITS AND SPINS OVER THE REGION DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD. MODELS ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A CLOSED
LOW INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. MODELS SHOWING THE
MAIN SURGE OF RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE DRY SLOT ON MONDAY...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO
REMAIN IN THE REGION ALL THE WAY INTO TUESDAY.

WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH GENERALLY 50S OR
UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS. MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP AN INTERESTING PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A HUGE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...KEEPING TEMPS ACROSS THIS AREA
SOMEWHAT ON THE COOL SIDE...NOT NOTHING TOO EXTREME.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

GOOD VFR IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 242347 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
647 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED MOISTURE WERE
RESULTING IN HIGH BASED VIRGA/LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. HAVE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...THE
BREEZY/WINDY AND DRY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FALL OFF BY LATE
EVENING. THE RH AND WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE RED FLAG
WARNING GOING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...WITH A
WEAK/DIFFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT...EXPECT THE WINDS
TO DECOUPLE LATE THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
NOT MUCH FOR WINDS ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CWA WILL START TO RECEIVE THE
INFLUENCES OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN US AND INTO THE CENTRAL US BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.
SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKING OFF OF THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH WAA
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL PICK UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN EASTERN COLORADO. THE WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BRINGING IN COOLER AIR FOR
SATURDAY. MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER LIFT
INTENSIFIES OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT SITS AND SPINS OVER THE REGION DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD. MODELS ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A CLOSED
LOW INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. MODELS SHOWING THE
MAIN SURGE OF RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE DRY SLOT ON MONDAY...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO
REMAIN IN THE REGION ALL THE WAY INTO TUESDAY.

WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH GENERALLY 50S OR
UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS. MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP AN INTERESTING PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A HUGE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...KEEPING TEMPS ACROSS THIS AREA
SOMEWHAT ON THE COOL SIDE...NOT NOTHING TOO EXTREME.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

GOOD VFR IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-UPPER CHEYENNE-UPPER JAMES
     RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI COTEAU.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 242243
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
443 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH MEAN HEIGHT RISES PUSHING EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO WEAK IMPULSES WILL EJECT OUT OF
THE MEAN UPPER UPPER LOW...AND INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA...ESP FRI NIGHT. WAA
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH. SFC PRESSURE FALLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS SHIFTING SE AND INCREASING PER LEE SIDE
TROUGHING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW.

TONIGHT...WEAK ELEVATED THETA-E ADV /EVIDENCED WELL AT H7/ WILL
SUPPORT AN AREA OF WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE NW ZONES THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SPRINKLES WHEN COUPLED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. DRY LL PROFILES AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE PRECLUDES A SHRA MENTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S /40S
IN THE LEE OF THE BH/.

FRIDAY...SW FLOW WITH INCREASING ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL
EXPECTING ENOUGH INSOLATION TO SUPPORT FAIRLY DEEP MIXING...PUSHING
TEMPS INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES. DEEP MIXING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NE WY AND THE WESTERN BH WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH AN ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA THERE LATE FRI AFTERNOON. NAM LI/S
CERTAINLY HINT AT THIS AND A FEW HIRES MODELS DO GENERATE
CONVECTION. HAVE ADDED A LOW POP FOR THIS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHRA ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY THE NW HALF...ALBEIT
ONLY ISOLD TO SCT. HAVE RETAINED A SHRA MENTION FRIDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING THE HIGHER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING SFC
PRESSURE FALLS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A PARTIALLY MIXED BL THROUGH THE
NIGHT MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED MOST PLACES. HAVE
BUMPED LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO WILL CREATE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD...BRINGING IN WARM AND MOIST
AIR. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
GFS BRINGING IT INTO SD SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF KEEPING IT
FARTHER SOUTH IN NEBRASKA. BOTH WRAP COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE CWA
BEHIND THE LOW...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR THE EVENT TO
BE MAINLY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ON THE SD PLAINS. SNOW IS MORE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS WHERE LOWS DIP BELOW
FREEZING SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. ALSO HAVE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE INSTABILITY IS
BETTER.

MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT WHEN THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD...ENERGY NORTHEAST OF IT WILL BE TAKEN IN AND CIRCULATED
BACK AROUND THE LOW...SLOWING IT DOWN AND ACTUALLY CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO RETROGRADE. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION AND COOL WEATHER MAY
STICK AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS VERY MOIST...WITH PWATS 180-200% OF NORMAL. MANY AREAS MAY
RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OF QPF...WITH THE BLACK HILLS POSSIBLY
RECEIVING MORE THAN TWO INCHES. ADDED MODERATE PRECIPITATION WORDING
IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 441 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ265.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE






000
FXUS63 KUNR 242243
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
443 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH MEAN HEIGHT RISES PUSHING EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO WEAK IMPULSES WILL EJECT OUT OF
THE MEAN UPPER UPPER LOW...AND INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA...ESP FRI NIGHT. WAA
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH. SFC PRESSURE FALLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS SHIFTING SE AND INCREASING PER LEE SIDE
TROUGHING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW.

TONIGHT...WEAK ELEVATED THETA-E ADV /EVIDENCED WELL AT H7/ WILL
SUPPORT AN AREA OF WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE NW ZONES THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SPRINKLES WHEN COUPLED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. DRY LL PROFILES AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE PRECLUDES A SHRA MENTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S /40S
IN THE LEE OF THE BH/.

FRIDAY...SW FLOW WITH INCREASING ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL
EXPECTING ENOUGH INSOLATION TO SUPPORT FAIRLY DEEP MIXING...PUSHING
TEMPS INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES. DEEP MIXING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NE WY AND THE WESTERN BH WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH AN ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA THERE LATE FRI AFTERNOON. NAM LI/S
CERTAINLY HINT AT THIS AND A FEW HIRES MODELS DO GENERATE
CONVECTION. HAVE ADDED A LOW POP FOR THIS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHRA ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY THE NW HALF...ALBEIT
ONLY ISOLD TO SCT. HAVE RETAINED A SHRA MENTION FRIDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING THE HIGHER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING SFC
PRESSURE FALLS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A PARTIALLY MIXED BL THROUGH THE
NIGHT MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED MOST PLACES. HAVE
BUMPED LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO WILL CREATE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD...BRINGING IN WARM AND MOIST
AIR. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
GFS BRINGING IT INTO SD SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF KEEPING IT
FARTHER SOUTH IN NEBRASKA. BOTH WRAP COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE CWA
BEHIND THE LOW...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR THE EVENT TO
BE MAINLY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ON THE SD PLAINS. SNOW IS MORE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS WHERE LOWS DIP BELOW
FREEZING SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. ALSO HAVE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE INSTABILITY IS
BETTER.

MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT WHEN THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD...ENERGY NORTHEAST OF IT WILL BE TAKEN IN AND CIRCULATED
BACK AROUND THE LOW...SLOWING IT DOWN AND ACTUALLY CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO RETROGRADE. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION AND COOL WEATHER MAY
STICK AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS VERY MOIST...WITH PWATS 180-200% OF NORMAL. MANY AREAS MAY
RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OF QPF...WITH THE BLACK HILLS POSSIBLY
RECEIVING MORE THAN TWO INCHES. ADDED MODERATE PRECIPITATION WORDING
IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 441 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ265.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KFSD 242121 CCA
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
421 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

RELATIVELY MIXY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND GRADIENT WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WITH GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...CONSIDERED ADDING
FOG MENTION IN NW IOWA WHERE MIXING IS NOT AS STRONG AND HEAVIER
RAIN FELL.  STILL THINK THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO FOR NOW LEFT MENTION
OUT.  WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW AND WINDS ALOFT GENERALLY IN THE 10
- 15 KNOT RANGE....SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY PLEASANT SPRING DAY ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.
STILL WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON FRIDAY WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR RESULTING IN RH VALUES OF 20-30 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH
ADVANCES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BY THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES DURING THE
DAY...RESULTING IN INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMING IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...WITH SOME 70S IN OUR SOUTH.

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE PACIFIC TROUGH EMERGES IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...LIFTS
NORTHWARD TO NEAR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA THEN
SLOWLY WOBBLES EASTWARD. STILL SEEING MODEL DIFFERENCES...
PARTICULARLY IN THE GRADUAL PROGRESSION EAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA.  THE GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z RUNS IS FOR A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK...WHICH RESULTS IN SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES AND
A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS ARE
ALSO TRENDING TOWARDS A SLOWER EXIT OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ON THURSDAY.

GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
ON SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS CAN MANAGE TO INITIATE. STORMS
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS. COULD SEE PRECIPITATION BRIEFLY TAPER OFF
LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AS MUCH STRONGER
LIFT AND FORCING PUSHES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY...SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL AGAIN BECOME NUMEROUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
SHEAR REMAINS STRONG AT AROUND 40 KT...THOUGH MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL...ALONG WITH DECENT INSTABILITY WILL POSE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MOISTURE WILL
BE MORE COPIOUS ON SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY...SO THINK THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS
THE LARGE SYSTEM DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WILL RESULT IN A MILDER SYSTEM OVERALL...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND BEYOND. DID TREND HIGHS
AND LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT EXPECT HIGHS TO GENERALLY TOP OUT IN
THE 50S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS PREVAILING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA SHOULD ABATE WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING AS MIXING CEASES AND
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SUBSIDE. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ255-256-258.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...











000
FXUS63 KFSD 242111
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
411 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

RELATIVELY MIXY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND GRADIENT WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WITH GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...CONSIDERED ADDING
FOG MENTION IN NW IOWA WHERE MIXING IS NOT AS STRONG AND HEAVIER
RAIN FELL.  STILL THINK THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO FOR NOW LEFT MENTION
OUT.  WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW AND WINDS ALOFT GENERALLY IN THE 10
- 15 KNOT RANGE....SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY PLEASANT SPRING DAY ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.
STILL WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON FRIDAY WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR RESULTING IN RH VALUES OF 20-30 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH
ADVANCES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BY THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES DURING THE
DAY...RESULTING IN INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMING IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...WITH SOME 70S IN OUR SOUTH.

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE PACIFIC TROUGH EMERGES IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...LIFTS
NORTHWARD TO NEAR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA THEN
SLOWLY WOBBLES EASTWARD. STILL SEEING MODEL DIFFERENCES...
PARTICULARLY IN THE GRADUAL PROGRESSION EAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA.  THE GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z RUNS IS FOR A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK...WHICH RESULTS IN SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES AND
A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS ARE
ALSO TRENDING TOWARDS A SLOWER EXIT OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ON THURSDAY.

GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
ON SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS CAN MANAGE TO INITIATE. STORMS
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS. COULD SEE PRECIPITATION BRIEFLY TAPER OFF
LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AS MUCH STRONGER
LIFT AND FORCING PUSHES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY...SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL AGAIN BECOME NUMEROUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
SHEAR REMAINS STRONG AT AROUND 40 KT...THOUGH MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL...ALONG WITH DECENT INSTABILITY WILL POSE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MOISTURE WILL
BE MORE COPIOUS ON SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY...SO THINK THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS
THE LARGE SYSTEM DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WILL RESULT IN A MILDER SYSTEM OVERALL...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND BEYOND. DID TREND HIGHS
AND LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT EXPECT HIGHS TO GENERALLY TOP OUT IN
THE 50S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS PREVAILING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

ED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA SHOULD ABATE WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING AS MIXING CEASES AND
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SUBSIDE. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ255-256-258.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS63 KUNR 242033
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
233 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH MEAN HEIGHT RISES PUSHING EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO WEAK IMPULSES WILL EJECT OUT OF
THE MEAN UPPER UPPER LOW...AND INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA...ESP FRI NIGHT. WAA
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH. SFC PRESSURE FALLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS SHIFTING SE AND INCREASING PER LEE SIDE
TROUGHING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW.

TONIGHT...WEAK ELEVATED THETA-E ADV /EVIDENCED WELL AT H7/ WILL
SUPPORT AN AREA OF WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE NW ZONES THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SPRINKLES WHEN COUPLED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. DRY LL PROFILES AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE PRECLUDES A SHRA MENTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S /40S
IN THE LEE OF THE BH/.

FRIDAY...SW FLOW WITH INCREASING ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL
EXPECTING ENOUGH INSOLATION TO SUPPORT FAIRLY DEEP MIXING...PUSHING
TEMPS INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES. DEEP MIXING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NE WY AND THE WESTERN BH WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH AN ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA THERE LATE FRI AFTERNOON. NAM LI/S
CERTAINLY HINT AT THIS AND A FEW HIRES MODELS DO GENERATE
CONVECTION. HAVE ADDED A LOW POP FOR THIS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHRA ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY THE NW HALF...ALBEIT
ONLY ISOLD TO SCT. HAVE RETAINED A SHRA MENTION FRIDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING THE HIGHER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING SFC
PRESSURE FALLS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A PARTIALLY MIXED BL THROUGH THE
NIGHT MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED MOST PLACES. HAVE
BUMPED LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO WILL CREATE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD...BRINGING IN WARM AND MOIST
AIR. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
GFS BRINGING IT INTO SD SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF KEEPING IT
FARTHER SOUTH IN NEBRASKA. BOTH WRAP COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE CWA
BEHIND THE LOW...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR THE EVENT TO
BE MAINLY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ON THE SD PLAINS. SNOW IS MORE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS WHERE LOWS DIP BELOW
FREEZING SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. ALSO HAVE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE INSTABILITY IS
BETTER.

MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT WHEN THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD...ENERGY NORTHEAST OF IT WILL BE TAKEN IN AND CIRCULATED
BACK AROUND THE LOW...SLOWING IT DOWN AND ACTUALLY CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO RETROGRADE. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION AND COOL WEATHER MAY
STICK AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS VERY MOIST...WITH PWATS 180-200% OF NORMAL. MANY AREAS MAY
RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OF QPF...WITH THE BLACK HILLS POSSIBLY
RECEIVING MORE THAN TWO INCHES. ADDED MODERATE PRECIPITATION WORDING
IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ265.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE








000
FXUS63 KUNR 242033
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
233 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH MEAN HEIGHT RISES PUSHING EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO WEAK IMPULSES WILL EJECT OUT OF
THE MEAN UPPER UPPER LOW...AND INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA...ESP FRI NIGHT. WAA
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH. SFC PRESSURE FALLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS SHIFTING SE AND INCREASING PER LEE SIDE
TROUGHING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW.

TONIGHT...WEAK ELEVATED THETA-E ADV /EVIDENCED WELL AT H7/ WILL
SUPPORT AN AREA OF WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE NW ZONES THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SPRINKLES WHEN COUPLED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. DRY LL PROFILES AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE PRECLUDES A SHRA MENTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S /40S
IN THE LEE OF THE BH/.

FRIDAY...SW FLOW WITH INCREASING ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL
EXPECTING ENOUGH INSOLATION TO SUPPORT FAIRLY DEEP MIXING...PUSHING
TEMPS INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES. DEEP MIXING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NE WY AND THE WESTERN BH WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH AN ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA THERE LATE FRI AFTERNOON. NAM LI/S
CERTAINLY HINT AT THIS AND A FEW HIRES MODELS DO GENERATE
CONVECTION. HAVE ADDED A LOW POP FOR THIS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHRA ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY THE NW HALF...ALBEIT
ONLY ISOLD TO SCT. HAVE RETAINED A SHRA MENTION FRIDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING THE HIGHER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING SFC
PRESSURE FALLS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A PARTIALLY MIXED BL THROUGH THE
NIGHT MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED MOST PLACES. HAVE
BUMPED LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO WILL CREATE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD...BRINGING IN WARM AND MOIST
AIR. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
GFS BRINGING IT INTO SD SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF KEEPING IT
FARTHER SOUTH IN NEBRASKA. BOTH WRAP COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE CWA
BEHIND THE LOW...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR THE EVENT TO
BE MAINLY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ON THE SD PLAINS. SNOW IS MORE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS WHERE LOWS DIP BELOW
FREEZING SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. ALSO HAVE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE INSTABILITY IS
BETTER.

MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT WHEN THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD...ENERGY NORTHEAST OF IT WILL BE TAKEN IN AND CIRCULATED
BACK AROUND THE LOW...SLOWING IT DOWN AND ACTUALLY CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO RETROGRADE. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION AND COOL WEATHER MAY
STICK AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS VERY MOIST...WITH PWATS 180-200% OF NORMAL. MANY AREAS MAY
RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OF QPF...WITH THE BLACK HILLS POSSIBLY
RECEIVING MORE THAN TWO INCHES. ADDED MODERATE PRECIPITATION WORDING
IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ265.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE








000
FXUS63 KUNR 242033
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
233 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH MEAN HEIGHT RISES PUSHING EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO WEAK IMPULSES WILL EJECT OUT OF
THE MEAN UPPER UPPER LOW...AND INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA...ESP FRI NIGHT. WAA
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH. SFC PRESSURE FALLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS SHIFTING SE AND INCREASING PER LEE SIDE
TROUGHING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW.

TONIGHT...WEAK ELEVATED THETA-E ADV /EVIDENCED WELL AT H7/ WILL
SUPPORT AN AREA OF WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE NW ZONES THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SPRINKLES WHEN COUPLED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. DRY LL PROFILES AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE PRECLUDES A SHRA MENTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S /40S
IN THE LEE OF THE BH/.

FRIDAY...SW FLOW WITH INCREASING ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL
EXPECTING ENOUGH INSOLATION TO SUPPORT FAIRLY DEEP MIXING...PUSHING
TEMPS INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES. DEEP MIXING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NE WY AND THE WESTERN BH WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH AN ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA THERE LATE FRI AFTERNOON. NAM LI/S
CERTAINLY HINT AT THIS AND A FEW HIRES MODELS DO GENERATE
CONVECTION. HAVE ADDED A LOW POP FOR THIS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHRA ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY THE NW HALF...ALBEIT
ONLY ISOLD TO SCT. HAVE RETAINED A SHRA MENTION FRIDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING THE HIGHER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING SFC
PRESSURE FALLS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A PARTIALLY MIXED BL THROUGH THE
NIGHT MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED MOST PLACES. HAVE
BUMPED LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO WILL CREATE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD...BRINGING IN WARM AND MOIST
AIR. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
GFS BRINGING IT INTO SD SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF KEEPING IT
FARTHER SOUTH IN NEBRASKA. BOTH WRAP COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE CWA
BEHIND THE LOW...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR THE EVENT TO
BE MAINLY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ON THE SD PLAINS. SNOW IS MORE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS WHERE LOWS DIP BELOW
FREEZING SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. ALSO HAVE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE INSTABILITY IS
BETTER.

MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT WHEN THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD...ENERGY NORTHEAST OF IT WILL BE TAKEN IN AND CIRCULATED
BACK AROUND THE LOW...SLOWING IT DOWN AND ACTUALLY CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO RETROGRADE. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION AND COOL WEATHER MAY
STICK AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS VERY MOIST...WITH PWATS 180-200% OF NORMAL. MANY AREAS MAY
RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OF QPF...WITH THE BLACK HILLS POSSIBLY
RECEIVING MORE THAN TWO INCHES. ADDED MODERATE PRECIPITATION WORDING
IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ265.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE








000
FXUS63 KUNR 242033
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
233 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH MEAN HEIGHT RISES PUSHING EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO WEAK IMPULSES WILL EJECT OUT OF
THE MEAN UPPER UPPER LOW...AND INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA...ESP FRI NIGHT. WAA
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH. SFC PRESSURE FALLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS SHIFTING SE AND INCREASING PER LEE SIDE
TROUGHING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW.

TONIGHT...WEAK ELEVATED THETA-E ADV /EVIDENCED WELL AT H7/ WILL
SUPPORT AN AREA OF WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE NW ZONES THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SPRINKLES WHEN COUPLED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. DRY LL PROFILES AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE PRECLUDES A SHRA MENTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S /40S
IN THE LEE OF THE BH/.

FRIDAY...SW FLOW WITH INCREASING ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL
EXPECTING ENOUGH INSOLATION TO SUPPORT FAIRLY DEEP MIXING...PUSHING
TEMPS INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES. DEEP MIXING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NE WY AND THE WESTERN BH WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH AN ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA THERE LATE FRI AFTERNOON. NAM LI/S
CERTAINLY HINT AT THIS AND A FEW HIRES MODELS DO GENERATE
CONVECTION. HAVE ADDED A LOW POP FOR THIS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHRA ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY THE NW HALF...ALBEIT
ONLY ISOLD TO SCT. HAVE RETAINED A SHRA MENTION FRIDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING THE HIGHER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING SFC
PRESSURE FALLS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A PARTIALLY MIXED BL THROUGH THE
NIGHT MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED MOST PLACES. HAVE
BUMPED LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO WILL CREATE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD...BRINGING IN WARM AND MOIST
AIR. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
GFS BRINGING IT INTO SD SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF KEEPING IT
FARTHER SOUTH IN NEBRASKA. BOTH WRAP COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE CWA
BEHIND THE LOW...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR THE EVENT TO
BE MAINLY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ON THE SD PLAINS. SNOW IS MORE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS WHERE LOWS DIP BELOW
FREEZING SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. ALSO HAVE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE INSTABILITY IS
BETTER.

MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT WHEN THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD...ENERGY NORTHEAST OF IT WILL BE TAKEN IN AND CIRCULATED
BACK AROUND THE LOW...SLOWING IT DOWN AND ACTUALLY CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO RETROGRADE. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION AND COOL WEATHER MAY
STICK AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS VERY MOIST...WITH PWATS 180-200% OF NORMAL. MANY AREAS MAY
RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OF QPF...WITH THE BLACK HILLS POSSIBLY
RECEIVING MORE THAN TWO INCHES. ADDED MODERATE PRECIPITATION WORDING
IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ265.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE








000
FXUS63 KABR 242031
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
331 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED MOISTURE WERE
RESULTING IN HIGH BASED VIRGA/LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. HAVE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...THE BREEZY/WINDY
AND DRY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FALL OFF BY LATE EVENING. THE RH AND
WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...WITH A WEAK/DIFFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TONIGHT...EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECOUPLE LATE THIS EVENING
AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FRIDAY WILL
BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH NOT MUCH FOR WINDS ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
CWA WILL START TO RECEIVE THE INFLUENCES OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US AND INTO THE CENTRAL US
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKING OFF
OF THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH WAA IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL PICK UP
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA STRENGTHENS
IN EASTERN COLORADO. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
BRINGING IN COOLER AIR FOR SATURDAY. MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER LIFT INTENSIFIES OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH
HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT SITS AND SPINS OVER THE REGION DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD. MODELS ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A CLOSED
LOW INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. MODELS SHOWING THE
MAIN SURGE OF RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE DRY SLOT ON MONDAY...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO
REMAIN IN THE REGION ALL THE WAY INTO TUESDAY.

WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH GENERALLY 50S OR
UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS. MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP AN INTERESTING PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A HUGE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...KEEPING TEMPS ACROSS THIS AREA
SOMEWHAT ON THE COOL SIDE...NOT NOTHING TOO EXTREME.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THRU FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLD HIGH BASED -SHRA OR
-TSRA NEAR THE KABR TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN OCCURRENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE IS VERY LOW...SO WILL LEAVE OUT
OF TAF AT THIS TIME AND AMEND AS NEEDED. CONDITIONS WOULD REMAIN
VFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT HAPPENS TO DEVELOP.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-UPPER CHEYENNE-UPPER JAMES
     RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI COTEAU.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 241758 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1258 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LIGHT RAINFALL IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA WILL
END INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IN SOUTH CENTRAL ND LATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND BRING SOME MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THUS...ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER DEPICT THIS EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT. THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA LOOKS GOOD AS NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS INTO THE
AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. UPDATED FORECAST.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND WE
LOSE THE BEST LIFT...HOWEVER GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. SOME OF THE
HI RES MODELS EVEN SHOW ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTIVE CELLS POPPING UP
FURTHER WEST...SO MAY BE A MENTION THAT NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED
WESTWARD. FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN TODAY AS WELL. NO
MAJOR CHANGES IN ANY FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
TOPPING OUT IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. THE RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES AS PLANNED.

RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW BUILDS OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE LESS CUT AND DRY.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS C
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA TO NEAR 20 C ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER REMAINED ON THE COOL SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NOW GIVEN
THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL...BUT
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN CWA.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE LATEST LONG TERM MODELS MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO. A STRONG
TROF IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS BEFORE MID
LEVEL PATTERN TURNS SOMEWHAT BLOCKY...WITH A CUT OFF LOW
DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 00Z RUNS AND
PREVIOUS RUNS IS THAT MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT NORTH AND WEST
WITH SFC LOW THIS WEEKEND. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT BETTER LLM RETURN
INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS ALSO RESULTS
IN MIXED LAYER CAPES UPWARDS OF 1K J/KG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SE SD.
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDER AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED SVR HAS
INCREASED A BIT. ALSO FORESEE CHANCES FOR PCPN BEING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND RIGHT INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO BROAD BRUSH CHANCES GIVEN DETAIL DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS. I ALSO BUMPED UP LOWS A NOTCH THIS WEEKEND TO
ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER DEWPOINTS AT NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE
LIMITED BY CLOUDS/PCPN.


&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THRU FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLD HIGH BASED -SHRA OR
-TSRA NEAR THE KABR TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN OCCURRENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE IS VERY LOW...SO WILL LEAVE OUT
OF TAF AT THIS TIME AND AMEND AS NEEDED. CONDITIONS WOULD REMAIN
VFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT HAPPENS TO DEVELOP.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-UPPER CHEYENNE-UPPER JAMES
     RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI COTEAU.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR/TMT
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 241750
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1250 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

SPLIT FLOW IS CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DAKOTAS...AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDING FROM WESTERN KS TO WEST
TX. PRETTY DECENT HOOKUP OF THE TWO STREAMS IS PHASING TOGETHER IN
THE SIOUX FALLS FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THE ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY EAST OF THE
JAMES...THEN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
EAST OF I 29 AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
CONTINUE FOR AREAS WEST OF I 29 HIGHLIGHTED BELOW...WITH AREAS RIGHT
ALONG I 29 ALSO CLOSE TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. HIGHS TODAY ARE A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC EAST OF I 29...AS THE
DEPTH OF MIXING IS NOT NEAR AS HIGH AS IT IS TO THE WEST. MIXING TO
850MB OR A BIT HIGHER...LOCATIONS FROM MARSHALL TO STORM LAKE SHOULD
TOP OUT IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER ALONG AND WEST OF I
29...WENT ONCE AGAIN WITH THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED VALUES AND EVEN
ADDED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO THEM IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES...WITH
LOWER 70S WIDESPREAD IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

TONIGHT LOOKS QUIET BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SURFACE RIDGING BEGINS TO SLIDE TO THE EAST WHICH
WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.
BUT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DROP OFF EVERYWHERE AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH A LOT OF 35 TO 40.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

FRIDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY WARM DAY WITH GOOD HEATING POTENTIAL.
INITIAL BAND OF MIDDLE CLOUDS SHOULD PASS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
SPOTTY MORNING CONVECTION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT THE STILL WEAK
INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGESTS KEEPING MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOR THE AFTERNOON...REAL GOOD HEATING OUT CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MAXIMUM HEATING POTENTIAL IN
WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL ADD A TOUGH
OF EFFECTIVE WARMTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING
STEADY OR EVEN COOLING BELOW THE MID LEVELS...AS INDICATED ON ALL
MODEL SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE INCREASE LOOK MODEST THOUGH THAT SHOULD
PICK UP SOME SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
SIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THAN FRIDAY...WITH THE
EFFECTIVE COOLING GREATER BECAUSE OF THE DEVELOPING STRONGER WINDS.
THE COOLING BELOW THE MID LEVELS SHOULD PUT THE LID ON ANY THOUGHTS
OF CONVECTION THROUGH DAYTIME SATURDAY...SO THE FORECAST WILL STAY
DRY. THINK HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S SHOULD BE ROUGHLY
5 DEGREES COOLER FOR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BRING A STILL DIFFERENT BALL GAME AS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
IS FORCED NORTH INTO OUR AREA BY STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW.
THE STRONG UPPER WIND OUTLOOK SEEMS TO BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. THIS MAY BE ELEVATED WITH LIKELY LIMITED LOW
LEVEL HEATING AGAIN...BUT THE THREAT SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HAVE GONE WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE
ON HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCOUNTING FOR THE LIMITED NATURE OF ANY LOW
LEVEL/SURFACE WARMING. IN ANY EVENT THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOTS OF
CLOUD COVER.

THIS UPPER SYSTEM IS DESTINED TO HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE AT THE
START OF NEXT WEEK...AND WILL KEEP A SLOWLY DECREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR RAIN IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN DRY FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO CANADIAN
RIDGING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT FOR NOW DO NOT
SEE IT GETTING COOL ENOUGH FOR ANY SURPRISE END OF APRIL
SNOWFALL...WHICH WOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH OF A SURPRISE AFTER LAST
YEARS FIRST OF MAY EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS PREVAILING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

EXTREME MIXING WILL BE TAKING PLACE TODAY WEST OF INTERSTATE
29...WITH MANY AREAS EXHIBITING A MIXING DEPTH OF WELL OVER 5000
FEET AGL BY AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY...THESE AREAS ARE ALSO
COINCIDING WHERE RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY SPOTTY. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE
AVERAGING 25 TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...
COUPLED WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
THEREFORE WILL CERTAINLY LEAVE THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE FOR
WEST OF I 29. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF HEADING EAST OF I 29 TO
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. THE TRICKIEST ZONES ARE RIGHT ALONG I 29
FROM BROOKINGS...TO SIOUX FALLS TO SIOUX CITY. THESE ZONES WILL BE
DRY ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MIXING DEPTH IS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE WINDS NEEDED
FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE AND WILL MONITOR FOR
CHANGES. FOR NOW...HAVE THE ZONES ALONG I 29 IN THE VERY HIGH
CATEGORY IN THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX...DROPPING TO HIGH
HEADING EAST OF I 29.

LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FIRE DANGER FRIDAY DESPITE DECENT
MIXING...HEATING...AND STILL FAIRLY DRY AIR. SATURDAY COULD BE A
PROBLEM AGAIN DESPITE INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WINDS WILL BE MUCH
STRONGER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ255-256-258.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...MJ







000
FXUS63 KUNR 241714
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1114 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
KS AND TO THE NORTH NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
SK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM SK
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. RIDGE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS INTO CENTRAL SD. TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH 40S TOWARD CENTRAL SD. WINDS ARE
MOSTLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

EVEN WITH SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK. AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS BEFORE A WET AND COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN SK WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY TO WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.
TEMPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL APPROACH 70 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES FORECAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
SOME FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED...SEE THE DISCUSSION
BELOW. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS
AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND EXITING RIDGE. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL CLIP NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM NORTHEAST
WY INTO NORTHWESTERN SD. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE TOWARD FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS STRONG UPPER TROF WORKS INTO THE
ROCKIES...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER ERN CO. STRONG ELY BL
TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND A CHANCE FOR
TSTMS DURING THE AFTN ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES NEWD AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH THERMAL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE. PCPN CHANCES THEN
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LOW FORMS
OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND DEEPENS AT IT MOVES EWD INTO THE
PLAINS. LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED THE UPPER LOW BACK A
BIT FURTHER NORTH...WHILE ALSO CONTINUING THE TREND OF SLOWING THE
SYSTEM DOWN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW...WDSPRD PCPN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR CWFA BEGINNING
SATURDAY NITE AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY...WITH MANY AREAS
RECEIVING AN INCH OR MORE QPF. AND IF THE LOW DOES STALL A BIT AS
SOME GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING...PCPN COULD CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK.
THERMAL PROFILES DO SUGGEST A MAINLY RAIN EVENT AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NERN WY
AND THE BLKHLS. IF SNOW LEVELS DO LOWER ON THE PLAINS...IT WOULD
LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS
INTO THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING
LIGHT THIS EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ265.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...POJORLIE








000
FXUS63 KABR 241540 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1040 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LIGHT RAINFALL IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA WILL
END INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IN SOUTH CENTRAL ND LATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND BRING SOME MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THUS...ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER DEPICT THIS EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT. THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA LOOKS GOOD AS NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS INTO THE
AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. UPDATED FORECAST.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND WE
LOSE THE BEST LIFT...HOWEVER GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. SOME OF THE
HI RES MODELS EVEN SHOW ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTIVE CELLS POPPING UP
FURTHER WEST...SO MAY BE A MENTION THAT NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED
WESTWARD. FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN TODAY AS WELL. NO
MAJOR CHANGES IN ANY FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
TOPPING OUT IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. THE RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES AS PLANNED.

RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW BUILDS OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE LESS CUT AND DRY. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS C ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CWA TO NEAR 20 C ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER
REMAINED ON THE COOL SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW. A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL...BUT LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LATEST LONG TERM MODELS MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO. A STRONG
TROF IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS BEFORE MID
LEVEL PATTERN TURNS SOMEWHAT BLOCKY...WITH A CUT OFF LOW
DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 00Z RUNS AND
PREVIOUS RUNS IS THAT MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT NORTH AND WEST
WITH SFC LOW THIS WEEKEND. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT BETTER LLM RETURN
INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS ALSO RESULTS
IN MIXED LAYER CAPES UPWARDS OF 1K J/KG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SE SD.
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDER AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED SVR HAS
INCREASED A BIT. ALSO FORESEE CHANCES FOR PCPN BEING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND RIGHT INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO BROAD BRUSH CHANCES GIVEN DETAIL DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS. I ALSO BUMPED UP LOWS A NOTCH THIS WEEKEND TO
ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER DEWPOINTS AT NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE
LIMITED BY CLOUDS/PCPN.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END AROUND KATY THIS MORNING AS FRONT MOVES
EAST. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR
AND THE RAIN WILL END. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME MVFR FOG AT KABR EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL GET GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
AND HOOK UP WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-UPPER CHEYENNE-UPPER JAMES
     RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI COTEAU.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 241203 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
703 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND WE
LOSE THE BEST LIFT...HOWEVER GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. SOME OF THE
HI RES MODELS EVEN SHOW ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTIVE CELLS POPPING UP
FURTHER WEST...SO MAY BE A MENTION THAT NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED
WESTWARD. FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN TODAY AS WELL. NO
MAJOR CHANGES IN ANY FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
TOPPING OUT IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. THE RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES AS PLANNED.

RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW BUILDS OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE LESS CUT AND DRY. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS C ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CWA TO NEAR 20 C ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER
REMAINED ON THE COOL SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW. A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL...BUT LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LATEST LONG TERM MODELS MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO. A STRONG
TROF IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS BEFORE MID
LEVEL PATTERN TURNS SOMEWHAT BLOCKY...WITH A CUT OFF LOW
DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 00Z RUNS AND
PREVIOUS RUNS IS THAT MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT NORTH AND WEST
WITH SFC LOW THIS WEEKEND. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT BETTER LLM RETURN
INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS ALSO RESULTS
IN MIXED LAYER CAPES UPWARDS OF 1K J/KG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SE SD.
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDER AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED SVR HAS
INCREASED A BIT. ALSO FORESEE CHANCES FOR PCPN BEING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND RIGHT INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO BROAD BRUSH CHANCES GIVEN DETAIL DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS. I ALSO BUMPED UP LOWS A NOTCH THIS WEEKEND TO
ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER DEWPOINTS AT NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE
LIMITED BY CLOUDS/PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END AROUND KATY THIS MORNING AS FRONT MOVES
EAST. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR
AND THE RAIN WILL END. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME MVFR FOG AT KABR EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL GET GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
AND HOOK UP WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTS UP TO 30 OR 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO BE MIXED TO THE SURFACE...AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 PERCENT OR LOWER
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THIS COMBINATION OF GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DEAD DRY FUELS...COULD RESULT
IN RAPID AND INTENSE GRASSLAND FIRES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI
     COTEAU-UPPER CHEYENNE-UPPER JAMES RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI
     COTEAU.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KFSD 241201
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
701 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

SPLIT FLOW IS CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DAKOTAS...AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDING FROM WESTERN KS TO WEST
TX. PRETTY DECENT HOOKUP OF THE TWO STREAMS IS PHASING TOGETHER IN
THE SIOUX FALLS FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THE ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY EAST OF THE
JAMES...THEN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
EAST OF I 29 AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
CONTINUE FOR AREAS WEST OF I 29 HIGHLIGHTED BELOW...WITH AREAS RIGHT
ALONG I 29 ALSO CLOSE TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. HIGHS TODAY ARE A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC EAST OF I 29...AS THE
DEPTH OF MIXING IS NOT NEAR AS HIGH AS IT IS TO THE WEST. MIXING TO
850MB OR A BIT HIGHER...LOCATIONS FROM MARSHALL TO STORM LAKE SHOULD
TOP OUT IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER ALONG AND WEST OF I
29...WENT ONCE AGAIN WITH THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED VALUES AND EVEN
ADDED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO THEM IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES...WITH
LOWER 70S WIDESPREAD IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

TONIGHT LOOKS QUIET BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SURFACE RIDGING BEGINS TO SLIDE TO THE EAST WHICH
WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.
BUT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DROP OFF EVERYWHERE AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH A LOT OF 35 TO 40.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

FRIDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY WARM DAY WITH GOOD HEATING POTENTIAL.
INITIAL BAND OF MIDDLE CLOUDS SHOULD PASS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
SPOTTY MORNING CONVECTION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT THE STILL WEAK
INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGESTS KEEPING MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOR THE AFTERNOON...REAL GOOD HEATING OUT CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MAXIMUM HEATING POTENTIAL IN
WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL ADD A TOUGH
OF EFFECTIVE WARMTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING
STEADY OR EVEN COOLING BELOW THE MID LEVELS...AS INDICATED ON ALL
MODEL SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE INCREASE LOOK MODEST THOUGH THAT SHOULD
PICK UP SOME SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
SIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THAN FRIDAY...WITH THE
EFFECTIVE COOLING GREATER BECAUSE OF THE DEVELOPING STRONGER WINDS.
THE COOLING BELOW THE MID LEVELS SHOULD PUT THE LID ON ANY THOUGHTS
OF CONVECTION THROUGH DAYTIME SATURDAY...SO THE FORECAST WILL STAY
DRY. THINK HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S SHOULD BE ROUGHLY
5 DEGREES COOLER FOR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BRING A STILL DIFFERENT BALL GAME AS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
IS FORCED NORTH INTO OUR AREA BY STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW.
THE STRONG UPPER WIND OUTLOOK SEEMS TO BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. THIS MAY BE ELEVATED WITH LIKELY LIMITED LOW
LEVEL HEATING AGAIN...BUT THE THREAT SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HAVE GONE WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE
ON HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCOUNTING FOR THE LIMITED NATURE OF ANY LOW
LEVEL/SURFACE WARMING. IN ANY EVENT THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOTS OF
CLOUD COVER.

THIS UPPER SYSTEM IS DESTINED TO HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE AT THE
START OF NEXT WEEK...AND WILL KEEP A SLOWLY DECREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR RAIN IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN DRY FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO CANADIAN
RIDGING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT FOR NOW DO NOT
SEE IT GETTING COOL ENOUGH FOR ANY SURPRISE END OF APRIL
SNOWFALL...WHICH WOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH OF A SURPRISE AFTER LAST
YEARS FIRST OF MAY EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I 29 CORRIDOR...
WITH ALSO SOME LOCALIZED LIFR TO IFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID
MORNING. THEN THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK IMPROVEMENT AS DRIER
AIR RAPIDLY ENTRAINS INTO THIS AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THEREFORE
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE VFR BY LATE MORNING. IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WEST OF I 29.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

EXTREME MIXING WILL BE TAKING PLACE TODAY WEST OF INTERSTATE
29...WITH MANY AREAS EXHIBITING A MIXING DEPTH OF WELL OVER 5000
FEET AGL BY AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY...THESE AREAS ARE ALSO
COINCIDING WHERE RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY SPOTTY. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE
AVERAGING 25 TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...
COUPLED WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
THEREFORE WILL CERTAINLY LEAVE THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE FOR
WEST OF I 29. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF HEADING EAST OF I 29 TO
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. THE TRICKIEST ZONES ARE RIGHT ALONG I 29
FROM BROOKINGS...TO SIOUX FALLS TO SIOUX CITY. THESE ZONES WILL BE
DRY ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MIXING DEPTH IS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE WINDS NEEDED
FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE AND WILL MONITOR FOR
CHANGES. FOR NOW...HAVE THE ZONES ALONG I 29 IN THE VERY HIGH
CATEGORY IN THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX...DROPPING TO HIGH
HEADING EAST OF I 29.

LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FIRE DANGER FRIDAY DESPITE DECENT
MIXING...HEATING...AND STILL FAIRLY DRY AIR. SATURDAY COULD BE A
PROBLEM AGAIN DESPITE INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WINDS WILL BE MUCH
STRONGER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ255-256-258.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...MJ







000
FXUS63 KUNR 240926
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
326 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
KS AND TO THE NORTH NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
SK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM SK
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. RIDGE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS INTO CENTRAL SD. TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH 40S TOWARD CENTRAL SD. WINDS ARE
MOSTLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

EVEN WITH SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK. AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS BEFORE A WET AND COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN SK WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY TO WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.
TEMPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL APPROACH 70 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES FORECAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
SOME FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED...SEE THE DISCUSSION
BELOW. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS
AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND EXITING RIDGE. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL CLIP NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM NORTHEAST
WY INTO NORTHWESTERN SD. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE TOWARD FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS STRONG UPPER TROF WORKS INTO THE
ROCKIES...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER ERN CO. STRONG ELY BL
TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND A CHANCE FOR
TSTMS DURING THE AFTN ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES NEWD AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH THERMAL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE. PCPN CHANCES THEN
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LOW FORMS
OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND DEEPENS AT IT MOVES EWD INTO THE
PLAINS. LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED THE UPPER LOW BACK A
BIT FURTHER NORTH...WHILE ALSO CONTINUING THE TREND OF SLOWING THE
SYSTEM DOWN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW...WDSPRD PCPN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR CWFA BEGINNING
SATURDAY NITE AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY...WITH MANY AREAS
RECEIVING AN INCH OR MORE QPF. AND IF THE LOW DOES STALL A BIT AS
SOME GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING...PCPN COULD CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK.
THERMAL PROFILES DO SUGGEST A MAINLY RAIN EVENT AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NERN WY
AND THE BLKHLS. IF SNOW LEVELS DO LOWER ON THE PLAINS...IT WOULD
LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS
INTO THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND DRY AIR TO THE AREA TODAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE DRY AIR AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH MINIMUM VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT
ELSEWHERE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR SD FIRE ZONE 265 FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY ACROSS MOST OF
THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ265.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 240926
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
326 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
KS AND TO THE NORTH NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
SK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM SK
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. RIDGE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS INTO CENTRAL SD. TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH 40S TOWARD CENTRAL SD. WINDS ARE
MOSTLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

EVEN WITH SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK. AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS BEFORE A WET AND COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN SK WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY TO WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.
TEMPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL APPROACH 70 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES FORECAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
SOME FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED...SEE THE DISCUSSION
BELOW. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS
AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND EXITING RIDGE. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL CLIP NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM NORTHEAST
WY INTO NORTHWESTERN SD. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE TOWARD FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS STRONG UPPER TROF WORKS INTO THE
ROCKIES...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER ERN CO. STRONG ELY BL
TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND A CHANCE FOR
TSTMS DURING THE AFTN ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES NEWD AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH THERMAL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE. PCPN CHANCES THEN
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LOW FORMS
OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND DEEPENS AT IT MOVES EWD INTO THE
PLAINS. LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED THE UPPER LOW BACK A
BIT FURTHER NORTH...WHILE ALSO CONTINUING THE TREND OF SLOWING THE
SYSTEM DOWN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW...WDSPRD PCPN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR CWFA BEGINNING
SATURDAY NITE AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY...WITH MANY AREAS
RECEIVING AN INCH OR MORE QPF. AND IF THE LOW DOES STALL A BIT AS
SOME GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING...PCPN COULD CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK.
THERMAL PROFILES DO SUGGEST A MAINLY RAIN EVENT AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NERN WY
AND THE BLKHLS. IF SNOW LEVELS DO LOWER ON THE PLAINS...IT WOULD
LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS
INTO THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND DRY AIR TO THE AREA TODAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE DRY AIR AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH MINIMUM VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT
ELSEWHERE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR SD FIRE ZONE 265 FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY ACROSS MOST OF
THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ265.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 240926
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
326 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
KS AND TO THE NORTH NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
SK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM SK
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. RIDGE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS INTO CENTRAL SD. TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH 40S TOWARD CENTRAL SD. WINDS ARE
MOSTLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

EVEN WITH SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK. AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS BEFORE A WET AND COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN SK WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY TO WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.
TEMPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL APPROACH 70 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES FORECAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
SOME FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED...SEE THE DISCUSSION
BELOW. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS
AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND EXITING RIDGE. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL CLIP NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM NORTHEAST
WY INTO NORTHWESTERN SD. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE TOWARD FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS STRONG UPPER TROF WORKS INTO THE
ROCKIES...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER ERN CO. STRONG ELY BL
TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND A CHANCE FOR
TSTMS DURING THE AFTN ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES NEWD AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH THERMAL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE. PCPN CHANCES THEN
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LOW FORMS
OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND DEEPENS AT IT MOVES EWD INTO THE
PLAINS. LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED THE UPPER LOW BACK A
BIT FURTHER NORTH...WHILE ALSO CONTINUING THE TREND OF SLOWING THE
SYSTEM DOWN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW...WDSPRD PCPN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR CWFA BEGINNING
SATURDAY NITE AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY...WITH MANY AREAS
RECEIVING AN INCH OR MORE QPF. AND IF THE LOW DOES STALL A BIT AS
SOME GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING...PCPN COULD CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK.
THERMAL PROFILES DO SUGGEST A MAINLY RAIN EVENT AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NERN WY
AND THE BLKHLS. IF SNOW LEVELS DO LOWER ON THE PLAINS...IT WOULD
LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS
INTO THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND DRY AIR TO THE AREA TODAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE DRY AIR AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH MINIMUM VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT
ELSEWHERE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR SD FIRE ZONE 265 FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY ACROSS MOST OF
THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ265.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 240926
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
326 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
KS AND TO THE NORTH NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
SK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM SK
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. RIDGE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS INTO CENTRAL SD. TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH 40S TOWARD CENTRAL SD. WINDS ARE
MOSTLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

EVEN WITH SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK. AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS BEFORE A WET AND COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN SK WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY TO WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.
TEMPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL APPROACH 70 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES FORECAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
SOME FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED...SEE THE DISCUSSION
BELOW. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS
AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND EXITING RIDGE. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL CLIP NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM NORTHEAST
WY INTO NORTHWESTERN SD. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE TOWARD FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS STRONG UPPER TROF WORKS INTO THE
ROCKIES...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER ERN CO. STRONG ELY BL
TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND A CHANCE FOR
TSTMS DURING THE AFTN ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES NEWD AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH THERMAL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE. PCPN CHANCES THEN
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LOW FORMS
OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND DEEPENS AT IT MOVES EWD INTO THE
PLAINS. LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED THE UPPER LOW BACK A
BIT FURTHER NORTH...WHILE ALSO CONTINUING THE TREND OF SLOWING THE
SYSTEM DOWN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW...WDSPRD PCPN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR CWFA BEGINNING
SATURDAY NITE AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY...WITH MANY AREAS
RECEIVING AN INCH OR MORE QPF. AND IF THE LOW DOES STALL A BIT AS
SOME GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING...PCPN COULD CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK.
THERMAL PROFILES DO SUGGEST A MAINLY RAIN EVENT AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NERN WY
AND THE BLKHLS. IF SNOW LEVELS DO LOWER ON THE PLAINS...IT WOULD
LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS
INTO THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND DRY AIR TO THE AREA TODAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE DRY AIR AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH MINIMUM VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT
ELSEWHERE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR SD FIRE ZONE 265 FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY ACROSS MOST OF
THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ265.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...26







000
FXUS63 KABR 240910
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
410 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND WE
LOSE THE BEST LIFT...HOWEVER GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. SOME OF THE
HI RES MODELS EVEN SHOW ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTIVE CELLS POPPING UP
FURTHER WEST...SO MAY BE A MENTION THAT NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED
WESTWARD. FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN TODAY AS WELL. NO
MAJOR CHANGES IN ANY FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
TOPPING OUT IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. THE RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES AS PLANNED.

RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW BUILDS OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE LESS CUT AND DRY. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS C ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CWA TO NEAR 20 C ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER
REMAINED ON THE COOL SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW. A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL...BUT LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LATEST LONG TERM MODELS MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO. A STRONG
TROF IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS BEFORE MID
LEVEL PATTERN TURNS SOMEWHAT BLOCKY...WITH A CUT OFF LOW
DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 00Z RUNS AND
PREVIOUS RUNS IS THAT MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT NORTH AND WEST
WITH SFC LOW THIS WEEKEND. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT BETTER LLM RETURN
INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS ALSO RESULTS
IN MIXED LAYER CAPES UPWARDS OF 1K J/KG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SE SD.
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDER AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED SVR HAS
INCREASED A BIT. ALSO FORESEE CHANCES FOR PCPN BEING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND RIGHT INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO BROAD BRUSH CHANCES GIVEN DETAIL DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS. I ALSO BUMPED UP LOWS A NOTCH THIS WEEKEND TO
ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER DEWPOINTS AT NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE
LIMITED BY CLOUDS/PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE BASICALLY DONE AT KPIR/KMBG AND KABR.
HOWEVER...LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
PIECE OF LOW PRESSURE ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY GENERATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AT THE KATY TERMINAL.

MEANWHILE...WEST OF THE COLD FRONT /KPIR AND KMBG/ THAT IS SLOWING
DOWN RIGHT NOW...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EAST OF THE COLD FRONT KABR AND KATY...BUT ESPECIALLY
KATY...COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR STRATUS AND FOG MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z THURSDAY.
EVENTUALLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF KABR AND KATY DRYING
THINGS OUT AS BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTS UP TO 30 OR 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO BE MIXED TO THE SURFACE...AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 PERCENT OR LOWER
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THIS COMBINATION OF GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DEAD DRY FUELS...COULD RESULT
IN RAPID AND INTENSE GRASSLAND FIRES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI
     COTEAU-UPPER CHEYENNE-UPPER JAMES RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI
     COTEAU.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 240814
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
314 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

SPLIT FLOW IS CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DAKOTAS...AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDING FROM WESTERN KS TO WEST
TX. PRETTY DECENT HOOKUP OF THE TWO STREAMS IS PHASING TOGETHER IN
THE SIOUX FALLS FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THE ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY EAST OF THE
JAMES...THEN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
EAST OF I 29 AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
CONTINUE FOR AREAS WEST OF I 29 HIGHLIGHTED BELOW...WITH AREAS RIGHT
ALONG I 29 ALSO CLOSE TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. HIGHS TODAY ARE A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC EAST OF I 29...AS THE
DEPTH OF MIXING IS NOT NEAR AS HIGH AS IT IS TO THE WEST. MIXING TO
850MB OR A BIT HIGHER...LOCATIONS FROM MARSHALL TO STORM LAKE SHOULD
TOP OUT IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER ALONG AND WEST OF I
29...WENT ONCE AGAIN WITH THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED VALUES AND EVEN
ADDED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO THEM IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES...WITH
LOWER 70S WIDESPREAD IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

TONIGHT LOOKS QUIET BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SURFACE RIDGING BEGINS TO SLIDE TO THE EAST WHICH
WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.
BUT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DROP OFF EVERYWHERE AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH A LOT OF 35 TO 40.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

FRIDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY WARM DAY WITH GOOD HEATING POTENTIAL.
INITIAL BAND OF MIDDLE CLOUDS SHOULD PASS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
SPOTTY MORNING CONVECTION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT THE STILL WEAK
INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGESTS KEEPING MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOR THE AFTERNOON...REAL GOOD HEATING OUT CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MAXIMUM HEATING POTENTIAL IN
WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL ADD A TOUGH
OF EFFECTIVE WARMTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING
STEADY OR EVEN COOLING BELOW THE MID LEVELS...AS INDICATED ON ALL
MODEL SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE INCREASE LOOK MODEST THOUGH THAT SHOULD
PICK UP SOME SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
SIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THAN FRIDAY...WITH THE
EFFECTIVE COOLING GREATER BECAUSE OF THE DEVELOPING STRONGER WINDS.
THE COOLING BELOW THE MID LEVELS SHOULD PUT THE LID ON ANY THOUGHTS
OF CONVECTION THROUGH DAYTIME SATURDAY...SO THE FORECAST WILL STAY
DRY. THINK HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S SHOULD BE ROUGHLY
5 DEGREES COOLER FOR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BRING A STILL DIFFERENT BALL GAME AS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
IS FORCED NORTH INTO OUR AREA BY STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW.
THE STRONG UPPER WIND OUTLOOK SEEMS TO BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. THIS MAY BE ELEVATED WITH LIKELY LIMITED LOW
LEVEL HEATING AGAIN...BUT THE THREAT SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HAVE GONE WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE
ON HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCOUNTING FOR THE LIMITED NATURE OF ANY LOW
LEVEL/SURFACE WARMING. IN ANY EVENT THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOTS OF
CLOUD COVER.

THIS UPPER SYSTEM IS DESTINED TO HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE AT THE
START OF NEXT WEEK...AND WILL KEEP A SLOWLY DECREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR RAIN IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN DRY FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO CANADIAN
RIDGING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT FOR NOW DO NOT
SEE IT GETTING COOL ENOUGH FOR ANY SURPRISE END OF APRIL
SNOWFALL...WHICH WOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH OF A SURPRISE AFTER LAST
YEARS FIRST OF MAY EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FRONT HAS SLOWED AND REMAINS WEST OF KHON AT 03Z. FRONT ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH I-29 BY 09Z AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO SW MN AND NW
IA. SO KEPT GUSTY WINDS IN KSUX AND KFSD THROUGH 09Z AND ONLY A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT ANY TAF LOCATIONS SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM TAF.
HOWEVER...STRATIFORM AREA WILL MOVE OVER KSUX AND MUCH OF NW IOWA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE EITHER THIS
AREA EXPANDS FARTHER NORTH OR OTHER SHOWERS DEVELOP NEAR THE SFC
BOUNDARY...THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME SO
DID NOT INCLUDE IN TERMINAL FORECAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00Z AS
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND GRADIENT WEAKENS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

EXTREME MIXING WILL BE TAKING PLACE TODAY WEST OF INTERSTATE
29...WITH MANY AREAS EXHIBITING A MIXING DEPTH OF WELL OVER 5000
FEET AGL BY AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY...THESE AREAS ARE ALSO
COINCIDING WHERE RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY SPOTTY. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE
AVERAGING 25 TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...
COUPLED WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
THEREFORE WILL CERTAINLY LEAVE THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE FOR
WEST OF I 29. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF HEADING EAST OF I 29 TO
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. THE TRICKIEST ZONES ARE RIGHT ALONG I 29
FROM BROOKINGS...TO SIOUX FALLS TO SIOUX CITY. THESE ZONES WILL BE
DRY ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MIXING DEPTH IS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE WINDS NEEDED
FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE AND WILL MONITOR FOR
CHANGES. FOR NOW...HAVE THE ZONES ALONG I 29 IN THE VERY HIGH
CATEGORY IN THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX...DROPPING TO HIGH
HEADING EAST OF I 29.

LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FIRE DANGER FRIDAY DESPITE DECENT
MIXING...HEATING...AND STILL FAIRLY DRY AIR. SATURDAY COULD BE A
PROBLEM AGAIN DESPITE INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WINDS WILL BE MUCH
STRONGER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ255-256-258.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER
FIRE WEATHER...MJ







000
FXUS63 KABR 240522 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1222 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

THERE IS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. THE LATEST RAPID
REFRESH GUIDANCE SHOWS IT SLOWING SOME OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SRN NEBRASKA LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE
FRONT. THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL ALSO SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS NEXT WAVE SHOULD LIFT UP TOWARD THE REGION TOWARD 12Z
FRIDAY...AND LIKELY MISS MOST OF THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.

WHILE SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR AND WINDS RELAX WITHIN/NEAR THE
SLOWING SURFACE TROF...WENT AHEAD AND TOSSED IN SOME AREAS OF FOG
MENTION TO COVER ANY SURFACE MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS WESTERN SD AND IS
APPROACHING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE...WELL INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
A BIT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC TROUGH...WE ARE SEEING A SUBTLE
AND SLOW DROP OFF IN SPEEDS OUT OF CRITERIA LEVELS FROM WEST TO
EAST. WILL LET THE JAMES VALLEY PORTION OF THE WIND ADVISORY
EXPIRE AT 21Z WITH THE REMAINING EASTERN AREA GOING UNTIL 00Z.
ASIDE FROM THE WIND...ALSO DEALING WITH SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AS WAS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND OTHER HI RES MODELS...WE
ARE SEEING A BIT OF REDEVELOPMENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. SO...EXPECTING DECENT CHANCES FOR PRECIP YET THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE COLD FRONT SCOURS OUT MOST OF
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

NEXT AREA OF CONCERN IS THE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ON THURSDAY.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH. MIN RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT IN THE JAMES VALLEY WITH
VALUES LIKELY GOING BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. HAVE THEREFORE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING EFFECTIVE FROM 18Z TO 00Z TOMORROW.

TEMPS STAY MILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AND THERE HAS BEEN AN
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS ON FRIDAY. GFS IS STILL STUBBORN IN BRINGING
COOLER TEMPS AT 850 MB INTO THE NORTHERN/EASTERN CWA DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY...SHOWING A BIT MORE INFLUENCE OF THE COOLER HIGH TO THE
NORTH. THIS REALLY IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS THOUGH SO HAVE
GONE WITH THE WARMER SOLUTIONS SEEN IN THE EC AND GEM.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A MAINLY WET
AND COOL PATTERN FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFYING IN EASTERN COLORADO
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA THEN
WOBBLES AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP AND MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO MUCH OF
OUR CWA STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES OF RAIN CONTINUE
TO BE GOOD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE...THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH OUT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH COOL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
WITH THE RAIN...CLOUDS AND CANADIAN AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE BASICALLY DONE AT KPIR/KMBG AND KABR.
HOWEVER...LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
PIECE OF LOW PRESSURE ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY GENERATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AT THE KATY TERMINAL.

MEANWHILE...WEST OF THE COLD FRONT /KPIR AND KMBG/ THAT IS SLOWING
DOWN RIGHT NOW...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EAST OF THE COLD FRONT KABR AND KATY...BUT ESPECIALLY
KATY...COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR STRATUS AND FOG MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z THURSDAY.
EVENTUALLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF KABR AND KATY DRYING
THINGS OUT AS BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI
     COTEAU-UPPER CHEYENNE-UPPER JAMES RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI
     COTEAU.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KUNR 240435
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1035 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL LET
WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE GRADUALLY
CLEARING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOUDS EASTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH SITS
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE TAKEN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY...BUT HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
SD.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MOST OF THE ENERGY
NORTH OF OUR CWA. MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ACROSS WESTERN
SD BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WY/CO AND THE EXITING TROUGH.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TONED SPEEDS
DOWN. MAV IS SHOWING BARELY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE MET UNDER CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN REANALYZE.
DECREASED WINDS IN THE GRIDS...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE
TOO STRONG.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER
AIR AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S...50S IN THE HILLS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH COOLER AIR NOW FILTERING IN SUNDAY. WDSPRD PCPN IS
STILL PROGGED TO BEGIN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
SHOW UPPER LOW CROSSING THE COLORADO AREA SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SO NOT MUCH ACCESS TO A COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW...EXCEPT MAYBE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. ECMWF/GFS AGREE
WITH LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ263>266.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 240435
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1035 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL LET
WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE GRADUALLY
CLEARING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOUDS EASTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH SITS
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE TAKEN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY...BUT HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
SD.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MOST OF THE ENERGY
NORTH OF OUR CWA. MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ACROSS WESTERN
SD BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WY/CO AND THE EXITING TROUGH.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TONED SPEEDS
DOWN. MAV IS SHOWING BARELY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE MET UNDER CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN REANALYZE.
DECREASED WINDS IN THE GRIDS...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE
TOO STRONG.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER
AIR AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S...50S IN THE HILLS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH COOLER AIR NOW FILTERING IN SUNDAY. WDSPRD PCPN IS
STILL PROGGED TO BEGIN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
SHOW UPPER LOW CROSSING THE COLORADO AREA SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SO NOT MUCH ACCESS TO A COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW...EXCEPT MAYBE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. ECMWF/GFS AGREE
WITH LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ263>266.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 240435
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1035 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL LET
WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE GRADUALLY
CLEARING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOUDS EASTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH SITS
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE TAKEN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY...BUT HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
SD.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MOST OF THE ENERGY
NORTH OF OUR CWA. MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ACROSS WESTERN
SD BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WY/CO AND THE EXITING TROUGH.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TONED SPEEDS
DOWN. MAV IS SHOWING BARELY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE MET UNDER CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN REANALYZE.
DECREASED WINDS IN THE GRIDS...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE
TOO STRONG.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER
AIR AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S...50S IN THE HILLS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH COOLER AIR NOW FILTERING IN SUNDAY. WDSPRD PCPN IS
STILL PROGGED TO BEGIN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
SHOW UPPER LOW CROSSING THE COLORADO AREA SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SO NOT MUCH ACCESS TO A COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW...EXCEPT MAYBE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. ECMWF/GFS AGREE
WITH LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ263>266.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 240435
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1035 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL LET
WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE GRADUALLY
CLEARING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOUDS EASTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH SITS
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE TAKEN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY...BUT HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
SD.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MOST OF THE ENERGY
NORTH OF OUR CWA. MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ACROSS WESTERN
SD BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WY/CO AND THE EXITING TROUGH.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TONED SPEEDS
DOWN. MAV IS SHOWING BARELY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE MET UNDER CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN REANALYZE.
DECREASED WINDS IN THE GRIDS...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE
TOO STRONG.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER
AIR AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S...50S IN THE HILLS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH COOLER AIR NOW FILTERING IN SUNDAY. WDSPRD PCPN IS
STILL PROGGED TO BEGIN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
SHOW UPPER LOW CROSSING THE COLORADO AREA SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SO NOT MUCH ACCESS TO A COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW...EXCEPT MAYBE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. ECMWF/GFS AGREE
WITH LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ263>266.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KFSD 240338
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1038 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

ACTIVITY SO FAR THIS EVENING HAS BEEN PRETTY SPOTTY...MAINLY
CONCENTRATED ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SOME
OTHER SPOTTY ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SPURRED ON BY WEAK
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE WHICH HAS LIFTED ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHEAST ND AND CENTRAL MN. BY FAR THOUGH...MOST IMPRESSIVE
LINE OF CONVECTION FROM EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG 850 HPA FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS
GREATEST INSTABILITY TIED UP FURTHER WEST...FEATURES WEAKENING AS
PULL EAST OF THIS ZONE. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE STRATIFORM AREA BEHIND
LINE BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

OVERALL...LOW LEVEL FEATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWING WITH WAIT FOR UPPER
LEVEL WAVE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP
TO BULGE THE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ZONE SOMEWHAT BACK TO THE
NORTH AND WEST IN THE 06-09Z WINDOW...BUT LIKELY THAT ANY DECENT
COVERAGE OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA...PERHAPS JUST CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTHEAST. LOOKING TO GET THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD ALONG A YANKTON/SIOUX FALLS/TRACY LINE.
LATEST RUNS OF HIGH RES MODELS SLOWLY CATCHING ON TO SLOWING UP
PROGRESSION OF FEATURES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHIFT WHICH WAS NOT EVEN MADE IT TO THE JAMES VALLEY AS OF 03Z.
WILL BE SHAVING WESTERN PRECIPITATION THREAT AWAY SLOWLY...AFTER
ALLOWING FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT ACTIVITY LATE EVENING WITH LIFT
ALONG MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.

ALSO WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
SLOWLY MOVING TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST CWA...BUT FOR NOW THE
NORTHWARD SPREAD IN MID CLOUDS MAY KEEP THIS FROM OCCURRING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

ACTIVE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH WORKING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.  SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST STORMS TRYING TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY INCREASES IN THE MID LEVELS AND UPPER LEVEL DIV Q INCREASES
AS A SERIES OF JET IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  CUMULUS FIELD
ALREADY DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT.  EXPECT THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION TO EXPAND AND LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WITH SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY...COULD
SEE SOME TRAINING OF STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
60.  THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGE ABOVE ONE INCH...WHICH IS ABOVE
TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

FRONT WORKS EAST THURSDAY MORNING AND MIXY NORTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS OF LATE AND LIMITED
MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR LOCATIONS CURRENTLY UNDER FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
CONSIDERED ADDING EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONE...BUT OPTED TO HOLD
OFF FOR NOW AS MIXING IS NOT AS STRONG THERE.  ALSO CONSIDERED
ADDING SIOUX CITY ZONE...BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON RH VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  STILL
LOOKS LIKE A VERY MIXY DAY ACROSS THE WEST WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
AND STRONG HEATING MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB.  HAVE KEPT DEW POINTS
BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR DRY NATURE OF AIR MIXING DOWN
FROM ALOFT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RH VALUES OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF I-29 TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER LEVEL
LOW LINGERING IN MINNESOTA MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...EXPECT CLOUDS
TO REDUCE MIXING SOME AND THUS KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MODELS SHOWING MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN A BRINGING A MILD DAY TO THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY. WITH THE EXITING TROUGH QUICKLY SHIFTING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE NEXT TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WEST
COAST...RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
MPH. WARMED HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70. WHILE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...FIRE DANGER WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS
THURSDAY GIVEN LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

SATURDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE RIDGE
NUDGING EASTWARD. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WHILE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.
TEMPERATURES DO LOOK MILDER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT WILL BE
CAPPED SOME WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA TO NEAR 70 IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE PACIFIC TROUGH EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS AND SLOWLY WOBBLES
EASTWARD. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES. AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW MOVES
INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN TRACKS IN A GENERALLY
EASTWARD MOTION INTO MISSOURI BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN KICKING THIS LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY WHICH COULD KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE PICTURE WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...HOWEVER DID FOLLOW MORE OF A GFS
TIMING SOLUTION FOR NOW. MOISTURE PLUME WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY AREA-WIDE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
LOW CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WHICH WILL TAP INTO SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT PERSISTENT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL RAIN IN THE PICTURE.
HIGHS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID 40S INTO THE 50S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FOLLOWING THE GFS...HAVE TAPERED OFF THE PRECIPITATION BY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ENTIRELY
RAINFALL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FRONT HAS SLOWED AND REMAINS WEST OF KHON AT 03Z. FRONT ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH I-29 BY 09Z AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO SW MN AND NW
IA. SO KEPT GUSTY WINDS IN KSUX AND KFSD THROUGH 09Z AND ONLY A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT ANY TAF LOCATIONS SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM TAF.
HOWEVER...STRATIFORM AREA WILL MOVE OVER KSUX AND MUCH OF NW IOWA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE EITHER THIS
AREA EXPANDS FARTHER NORTH OR OTHER SHOWERS DEVELOP NEAR THE SFC
BOUNDARY...THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME SO
DID NOT INCLUDE IN TERMINAL FORECAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00Z AS
BOUNDARLY LAYER COOLS AND GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR SDZ255-256-
     258.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER







000
FXUS63 KFSD 240303
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1003 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

ACTIVITY SO FAR THIS EVENING HAS BEEN PRETTY SPOTTY...MAINLY
CONCENTRATED ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SOME
OTHER SPOTTY ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SPURRED ON BY WEAK
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE WHICH HAS LIFTED ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHEAST ND AND CENTRAL MN. BY FAR THOUGH...MOST IMPRESSIVE
LINE OF CONVECTION FROM EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG 850 HPA FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS
GREATEST INSTABILITY TIED UP FURTHER WEST...FEATURES WEAKENING AS
PULL EAST OF THIS ZONE. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE STRATIFORM AREA BEHIND
LINE BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

OVERALL...LOW LEVEL FEATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWING WITH WAIT FOR UPPER
LEVEL WAVE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP
TO BULGE THE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ZONE SOMEWHAT BACK TO THE
NORTH AND WEST IN THE 06-09Z WINDOW...BUT LIKELY THAT ANY DECENT
COVERAGE OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA...PERHAPS JUST CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTHEAST. LOOKING TO GET THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD ALONG A YANKTON/SIOUX FALLS/TRACY LINE.
LATEST RUNS OF HIGH RES MODELS SLOWLY CATCHING ON TO SLOWING UP
PROGRESSION OF FEATURES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHIFT WHICH WAS NOT EVEN MADE IT TO THE JAMES VALLEY AS OF 03Z.
WILL BE SHAVING WESTERN PRECIPITATION THREAT AWAY SLOWLY...AFTER
ALLOWING FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT ACTIVITY LATE EVENING WITH LIFT
ALONG MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.

ALSO WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
SLOWLY MOVING TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST CWA...BUT FOR NOW THE
NORTHWARD SPREAD IN MID CLOUDS MAY KEEP THIS FROM OCCURRING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

ACTIVE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH WORKING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.  SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST STORMS TRYING TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY INCREASES IN THE MID LEVELS AND UPPER LEVEL DIV Q INCREASES
AS A SERIES OF JET IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  CUMULUS FIELD
ALREADY DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT.  EXPECT THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION TO EXPAND AND LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WITH SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY...COULD
SEE SOME TRAINING OF STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
60.  THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGE ABOVE ONE INCH...WHICH IS ABOVE
TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

FRONT WORKS EAST THURSDAY MORNING AND MIXY NORTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS OF LATE AND LIMITED
MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR LOCATIONS CURRENTLY UNDER FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
CONSIDERED ADDING EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONE...BUT OPTED TO HOLD
OFF FOR NOW AS MIXING IS NOT AS STRONG THERE.  ALSO CONSIDERED
ADDING SIOUX CITY ZONE...BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON RH VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  STILL
LOOKS LIKE A VERY MIXY DAY ACROSS THE WEST WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
AND STRONG HEATING MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB.  HAVE KEPT DEW POINTS
BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR DRY NATURE OF AIR MIXING DOWN
FROM ALOFT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RH VALUES OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF I-29 TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER LEVEL
LOW LINGERING IN MINNESOTA MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...EXPECT CLOUDS
TO REDUCE MIXING SOME AND THUS KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MODELS SHOWING MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN A BRINGING A MILD DAY TO THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY. WITH THE EXITING TROUGH QUICKLY SHIFTING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE NEXT TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WEST
COAST...RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
MPH. WARMED HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70. WHILE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...FIRE DANGER WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS
THURSDAY GIVEN LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

SATURDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE RIDGE
NUDGING EASTWARD. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WHILE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.
TEMPERATURES DO LOOK MILDER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT WILL BE
CAPPED SOME WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA TO NEAR 70 IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE PACIFIC TROUGH EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS AND SLOWLY WOBBLES
EASTWARD. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES. AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW MOVES
INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN TRACKS IN A GENERALLY
EASTWARD MOTION INTO MISSOURI BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN KICKING THIS LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY WHICH COULD KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE PICTURE WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...HOWEVER DID FOLLOW MORE OF A GFS
TIMING SOLUTION FOR NOW. MOISTURE PLUME WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY AREA-WIDE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
LOW CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WHICH WILL TAP INTO SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT PERSISTENT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL RAIN IN THE PICTURE.
HIGHS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID 40S INTO THE 50S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FOLLOWING THE GFS...HAVE TAPERED OFF THE PRECIPITATION BY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ENTIRELY
RAINFALL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
BASED ON CURRENT TIMING EXPECT THEM TO REACH KSUX AROUND 01Z.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS RAIN EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
A FEW HOURS AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. FOR KFSD...WEAK CONVECTION TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SD
AND NE BORDER WOULD REACH KFSD BETWEEN 02Z AND 03Z. NOT CONFIDENT
THIS WILL ORGANIZE. INSTEAD...RAIN AND STORMS MAY WAIT UNTIL THE
BOUNDARY IS CLOSER. CURRENT THINKING IS CLOSER TO 04Z. INSTABILITY
IS MUCH LESS BUT ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
PRIOR TO 06Z. AFTER THAT LIGHT RAIN LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. FOR BOTH KFSD AND KSUX...EXPECT PCPN TO END BY 12Z
WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. NO PCPN EXPECT AT KHON AT THIS
TIME. AS FOR WINDS...FRONT MOVING THROUGH WILL RESULT IN
DECREASING WINDS THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCH TO NW OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REALLY PICK UP AGAIN WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 20 KTS AND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR SDZ255-256-
     258.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER







000
FXUS63 KABR 240158 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
858 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THERE IS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. THE LATEST RAPID
REFRESH GUIDANCE SHOWS IT SLOWING SOME OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SRN NEBRASKA LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE
FRONT. THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL ALSO SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS NEXT WAVE SHOULD LIFT UP TOWARD THE REGION TOWARD 12Z
FRIDAY...AND LIKELY MISS MOST OF THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.

WHILE SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR AND WINDS RELAX WITHIN/NEAR THE
SLOWING SURFACE TROF...WENT AHEAD AND TOSSED IN SOME AREAS OF FOG
MENTION TO COVER ANY SURFACE MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS WESTERN SD AND IS
APPROACHING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE...WELL INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
A BIT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC TROUGH...WE ARE SEEING A SUBTLE
AND SLOW DROP OFF IN SPEEDS OUT OF CRITERIA LEVELS FROM WEST TO
EAST. WILL LET THE JAMES VALLEY PORTION OF THE WIND ADVISORY
EXPIRE AT 21Z WITH THE REMAINING EASTERN AREA GOING UNTIL 00Z.
ASIDE FROM THE WIND...ALSO DEALING WITH SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AS WAS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND OTHER HI RES MODELS...WE
ARE SEEING A BIT OF REDEVELOPMENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. SO...EXPECTING DECENT CHANCES FOR PRECIP YET THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE COLD FRONT SCOURS OUT MOST OF
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

NEXT AREA OF CONCERN IS THE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ON THURSDAY.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH. MIN RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT IN THE JAMES VALLEY WITH
VALUES LIKELY GOING BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. HAVE THEREFORE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING EFFECTIVE FROM 18Z TO 00Z TOMORROW.

TEMPS STAY MILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AND THERE HAS BEEN AN
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS ON FRIDAY. GFS IS STILL STUBBORN IN BRINGING
COOLER TEMPS AT 850 MB INTO THE NORTHERN/EASTERN CWA DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY...SHOWING A BIT MORE INFLUENCE OF THE COOLER HIGH TO THE
NORTH. THIS REALLY IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS THOUGH SO HAVE
GONE WITH THE WARMER SOLUTIONS SEEN IN THE EC AND GEM.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A MAINLY WET
AND COOL PATTERN FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFYING IN EASTERN COLORADO
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA THEN
WOBBLES AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP AND MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO MUCH OF
OUR CWA STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES OF RAIN CONTINUE
TO BE GOOD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE...THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH OUT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH COOL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
WITH THE RAIN...CLOUDS AND CANADIAN AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE BASICALLY DONE AT KPIR/KMBG AND KABR.
HOWEVER...LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
PIECE OF LOW PRESSURE ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY GENERATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AT THE KATY TERMINAL.

MEANWHILE...WEST OF THE COLD FRONT /KPIR AND KMBG/ THAT IS SLOWING
DOWN RIGHT NOW...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EAST OF THE COLD FRONT KABR AND KATY...BUT ESPECIALLY
KATY...WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR STRATUS AND FOG FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. EVENTUALLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF KABR AND
KATY DRYING THINGS OUT AS BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
     THURSDAY FOR LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-UPPER CHEYENNE-
     UPPER JAMES RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI COTEAU.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 232356
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
556 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL LET
WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE GRADUALLY
CLEARING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOUDS EASTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH SITS
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE TAKEN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY...BUT HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
SD.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MOST OF THE ENERGY
NORTH OF OUR CWA. MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ACROSS WESTERN
SD BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WY/CO AND THE EXITING TROUGH.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TONED SPEEDS
DOWN. MAV IS SHOWING BARELY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE MET UNDER CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN REANALYZE.
DECREASED WINDS IN THE GRIDS...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE
TOO STRONG.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER
AIR AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S...50S IN THE HILLS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH COOLER AIR NOW FILTERING IN SUNDAY. WDSPRD PCPN IS
STILL PROGGED TO BEGIN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
SHOW UPPER LOW CROSSING THE COLORADO AREA SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SO NOT MUCH ACCESS TO A COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW...EXCEPT MAYBE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. ECMWF/GFS AGREE
WITH LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ263>266.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 232356
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
556 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL LET
WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE GRADUALLY
CLEARING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOUDS EASTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH SITS
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE TAKEN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY...BUT HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
SD.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MOST OF THE ENERGY
NORTH OF OUR CWA. MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ACROSS WESTERN
SD BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WY/CO AND THE EXITING TROUGH.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TONED SPEEDS
DOWN. MAV IS SHOWING BARELY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE MET UNDER CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN REANALYZE.
DECREASED WINDS IN THE GRIDS...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE
TOO STRONG.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER
AIR AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S...50S IN THE HILLS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH COOLER AIR NOW FILTERING IN SUNDAY. WDSPRD PCPN IS
STILL PROGGED TO BEGIN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
SHOW UPPER LOW CROSSING THE COLORADO AREA SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SO NOT MUCH ACCESS TO A COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW...EXCEPT MAYBE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. ECMWF/GFS AGREE
WITH LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ263>266.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KABR 232352 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
652 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE THE LAST SECTION OF WIND
ADVISORY COUNTIES. WILL BE UPDATING AGAIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS TO
INTRODUCE SOME FOG MENTION...PARTICULARLY WITHIN AND JUST EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS SLOWING DOWN A BIT...AND
BECAUSE OF THE RAINFALL THAT HAS BEEN RECEIVED TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION...BEEFING UP SURFACE LAYER AND BOTTOM OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS WESTERN SD AND IS
APPROACHING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE...WELL INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
A BIT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC TROUGH...WE ARE SEEING A SUBTLE
AND SLOW DROP OFF IN SPEEDS OUT OF CRITERIA LEVELS FROM WEST TO
EAST. WILL LET THE JAMES VALLEY PORTION OF THE WIND ADVISORY
EXPIRE AT 21Z WITH THE REMAINING EASTERN AREA GOING UNTIL 00Z.
ASIDE FROM THE WIND...ALSO DEALING WITH SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AS WAS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND OTHER HI RES MODELS...WE
ARE SEEING A BIT OF REDEVELOPMENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. SO...EXPECTING DECENT CHANCES FOR PRECIP YET THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE COLD FRONT SCOURS OUT MOST OF
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

NEXT AREA OF CONCERN IS THE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ON THURSDAY.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH. MIN RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT IN THE JAMES VALLEY WITH
VALUES LIKELY GOING BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. HAVE THEREFORE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING EFFECTIVE FROM 18Z TO 00Z TOMORROW.

TEMPS STAY MILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AND THERE HAS BEEN AN
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS ON FRIDAY. GFS IS STILL STUBBORN IN BRINGING
COOLER TEMPS AT 850 MB INTO THE NORTHERN/EASTERN CWA DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY...SHOWING A BIT MORE INFLUENCE OF THE COOLER HIGH TO THE
NORTH. THIS REALLY IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS THOUGH SO HAVE
GONE WITH THE WARMER SOLUTIONS SEEN IN THE EC AND GEM.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A MAINLY WET
AND COOL PATTERN FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFYING IN EASTERN COLORADO
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA THEN
WOBBLES AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP AND MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO MUCH OF
OUR CWA STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES OF RAIN CONTINUE
TO BE GOOD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE...THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH OUT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH COOL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
WITH THE RAIN...CLOUDS AND CANADIAN AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE BASICALLY DONE AT KPIR/KMBG AND KABR.
HOWEVER...LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
PIECE OF LOW PRESSURE ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY GENERATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AT THE KATY TERMINAL.

MEANWHILE...WEST OF THE COLD FRONT /KPIR AND KMBG/ THAT IS SLOWING
DOWN RIGHT NOW...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EAST OF THE COLD FRONT KABR AND KATY...BUT ESPECIALLY
KATY...WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR STRATUS AND FOG FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. EVENTUALLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF KABR AND
KATY DRYING THINGS OUT AS BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
     THURSDAY FOR LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-UPPER CHEYENNE-
     UPPER JAMES RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI COTEAU.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 232338
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
638 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

ACTIVE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH WORKING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.  SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST STORMS TRYING TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY INCREASES IN THE MID LEVELS AND UPPER LEVEL DIV Q INCREASES
AS A SERIES OF JET IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  CUMULUS FIELD
ALREADY DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT.  EXPECT THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION TO EXPAND AND LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WITH SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY...COULD
SEE SOME TRAINING OF STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
60.  THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGE ABOVE ONE INCH...WHICH IS ABOVE
TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

FRONT WORKS EAST THURSDAY MORNING AND MIXY NORTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS OF LATE AND LIMITED
MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR LOCATIONS CURRENTLY UNDER FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
CONSIDERED ADDING EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONE...BUT OPTED TO HOLD
OFF FOR NOW AS MIXING IS NOT AS STRONG THERE.  ALSO CONSIDERED
ADDING SIOUX CITY ZONE...BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON RH VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  STILL
LOOKS LIKE A VERY MIXY DAY ACROSS THE WEST WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
AND STRONG HEATING MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB.  HAVE KEPT DEW POINTS
BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR DRY NATURE OF AIR MIXING DOWN
FROM ALOFT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RH VALUES OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF I-29 TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER LEVEL
LOW LINGERING IN MINNESOTA MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...EXPECT CLOUDS
TO REDUCE MIXING SOME AND THUS KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MODELS SHOWING MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN A BRINGING A MILD DAY TO THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY. WITH THE EXITING TROUGH QUICKLY SHIFTING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE NEXT TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WEST
COAST...RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
MPH. WARMED HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70. WHILE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...FIRE DANGER WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS
THURSDAY GIVEN LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

SATURDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE RIDGE
NUDGING EASTWARD. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WHILE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.
TEMPERATURES DO LOOK MILDER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT WILL BE
CAPPED SOME WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA TO NEAR 70 IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE PACIFIC TROUGH EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS AND SLOWLY WOBBLES
EASTWARD. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES. AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW MOVES
INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN TRACKS IN A GENERALLY
EASTWARD MOTION INTO MISSOURI BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN KICKING THIS LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY WHICH COULD KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE PICTURE WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...HOWEVER DID FOLLOW MORE OF A GFS
TIMING SOLUTION FOR NOW. MOISTURE PLUME WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY AREA-WIDE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
LOW CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WHICH WILL TAP INTO SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT PERSISTENT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL RAIN IN THE PICTURE.
HIGHS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID 40S INTO THE 50S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FOLLOWING THE GFS...HAVE TAPERED OFF THE PRECIPITATION BY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ENTIRELY
RAINFALL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
BASED ON CURRENT TIMING EXPECT THEM TO REACH KSUX AROUND 01Z.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS RAIN EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
A FEW HOURS AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. FOR KFSD...WEAK CONVECTION TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SD
AND NE BORDER WOULD REACH KFSD BETWEEN 02Z AND 03Z. NOT CONFIDENT
THIS WILL ORGANIZE. INSTEAD...RAIN AND STORMS MAY WAIT UNTIL THE
BOUNDARY IS CLOSER. CURRENT THINKING IS CLOSER TO 04Z. INSTABILITY
IS MUCH LESS BUT ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
PRIOR TO 06Z. AFTER THAT LIGHT RAIN LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. FOR BOTH KFSD AND KSUX...EXPECT PCPN TO END BY 12Z
WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. NO PCPN EXPECT AT KHON AT THIS
TIME. AS FOR WINDS...FRONT MOVING THROUGH WILL RESULT IN
DECREASING WINDS THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCH TO NW OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REALLY PICK UP AGAIN WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 20 KTS AND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR SDZ255-256-
     258.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040-055-056-062-
     066-067-070-071.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
     020>022-031-032.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ249.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER






000
FXUS63 KFSD 232107
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
407 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

ACTIVE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH WORKING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.  SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST STORMS TRYING TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY INCREASES IN THE MID LEVELS AND UPPER LEVEL DIV Q INCREASES
AS A SERIES OF JET IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  CUMULUS FIELD
ALREADY DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT.  EXPECT THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION TO EXPAND AND LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WITH SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY...COULD
SEE SOME TRAINING OF STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
60.  THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGE ABOVE ONE INCH...WHICH IS ABOVE
TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

FRONT WORKS EAST THURSDAY MORNING AND MIXY NORTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS OF LATE AND LIMITED
MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR LOCATIONS CURRENTLY UNDER FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
CONSIDERED ADDING EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONE...BUT OPTED TO HOLD
OFF FOR NOW AS MIXING IS NOT AS STRONG THERE.  ALSO CONSIDERED
ADDING SIOUX CITY ZONE...BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON RH VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  STILL
LOOKS LIKE A VERY MIXY DAY ACROSS THE WEST WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
AND STRONG HEATING MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB.  HAVE KEPT DEW POINTS
BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR DRY NATURE OF AIR MIXING DOWN
FROM ALOFT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RH VALUES OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF I-29 TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER LEVEL
LOW LINGERING IN MINNESOTA MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...EXPECT CLOUDS
TO REDUCE MIXING SOME AND THUS KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MODELS SHOWING MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN A BRINGING A MILD DAY TO THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY. WITH THE EXITING TROUGH QUICKLY SHIFTING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE NEXT TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WEST
COAST...RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
MPH. WARMED HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70. WHILE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...FIRE DANGER WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS
THURSDAY GIVEN LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

SATURDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE RIDGE
NUDGING EASTWARD. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WHILE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.
TEMPERATURES DO LOOK MILDER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT WILL BE
CAPPED SOME WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA TO NEAR 70 IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE PACIFIC TROUGH EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS AND SLOWLY WOBBLES
EASTWARD. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES. AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW MOVES
INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN TRACKS IN A GENERALLY
EASTWARD MOTION INTO MISSOURI BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN KICKING THIS LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY WHICH COULD KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE PICTURE WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...HOWEVER DID FOLLOW MORE OF A GFS
TIMING SOLUTION FOR NOW. MOISTURE PLUME WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY AREA-WIDE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
LOW CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WHICH WILL TAP INTO SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT PERSISTENT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL RAIN IN THE PICTURE.
HIGHS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID 40S INTO THE 50S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FOLLOWING THE GFS...HAVE TAPERED OFF THE PRECIPITATION BY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ENTIRELY
RAINFALL AT THIS POINT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 40 KTS AT TIMES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...THEN STEADILY DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AFTER 20Z THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
EXPAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KHON IS LOW...SO DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN
THE TAF. WHILE EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE ON THURSDAY...BUSTING TO NEAR 25 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR SDZ255-256-
     258.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040-055-056-062-
     066-067-070-071.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
     020>022-031-032.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ249.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...







000
FXUS63 KABR 232058
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
358 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS WESTERN SD AND IS
APPROACHING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE...WELL INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
A BIT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC TROUGH...WE ARE SEEING A SUBTLE
AND SLOW DROP OFF IN SPEEDS OUT OF CRITERIA LEVELS FROM WEST TO
EAST. WILL LET THE JAMES VALLEY PORTION OF THE WIND ADVISORY
EXPIRE AT 21Z WITH THE REMAINING EASTERN AREA GOING UNTIL 00Z.
ASIDE FROM THE WIND...ALSO DEALING WITH SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AS WAS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND OTHER HI RES MODELS...WE
ARE SEEING A BIT OF REDEVELOPMENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. SO...EXPECTING DECENT CHANCES FOR PRECIP YET THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE COLD FRONT SCOURS OUT MOST OF
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

NEXT AREA OF CONCERN IS THE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ON THURSDAY.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH. MIN RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT IN THE JAMES VALLEY WITH
VALUES LIKELY GOING BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. HAVE THEREFORE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING EFFECTIVE FROM 18Z TO 00Z TOMORROW.

TEMPS STAY MILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AND THERE HAS BEEN AN
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS ON FRIDAY. GFS IS STILL STUBBORN IN BRINGING
COOLER TEMPS AT 850 MB INTO THE NORTHERN/EASTERN CWA DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY...SHOWING A BIT MORE INFLUENCE OF THE COOLER HIGH TO THE
NORTH. THIS REALLY IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS THOUGH SO HAVE
GONE WITH THE WARMER SOLUTIONS SEEN IN THE EC AND GEM.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A MAINLY WET
AND COOL PATTERN FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFYING IN EASTERN COLORADO
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA THEN
WOBBLES AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP AND MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO MUCH OF
OUR CWA STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES OF RAIN CONTINUE
TO BE GOOD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE...THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH OUT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH COOL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
WITH THE RAIN...CLOUDS AND CANADIAN AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE MAY AFFECT THE
TAF LOCATIONS AND WILL MONITOR FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...THE
VERY STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AT ALL
LOCATIONS BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING...EXPECT MVFR/LOW VFR
CEILINGS TO FORM AT ABR AND ESPECIALLY ATY WITH SOME LIGHT FOG AT
ATY. THE SKIES WILL GO MOSTLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE WINDS
COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
     THURSDAY FOR LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-UPPER CHEYENNE-
     UPPER JAMES RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI COTEAU.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-
     DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 232045
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
245 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE GRADUALLY
CLEARING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOUDS EASTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH SITS
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE TAKEN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY...BUT HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
SD.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MOST OF THE ENERGY
NORTH OF OUR CWA. MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ACROSS WESTERN
SD BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WY/CO AND THE EXITING TROUGH.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TONED SPEEDS
DOWN. MAV IS SHOWING BARELY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE MET UNDER CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN REANALYZE.
DECREASED WINDS IN THE GRIDS...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE
TOO STRONG.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER
AIR AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S...50S IN THE HILLS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH COOLER AIR NOW FILTERING IN SUNDAY. WDSPRD PCPN IS
STILL PROGGED TO BEGIN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
SHOW UPPER LOW CROSSING THE COLORADO AREA SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SO NOT MUCH ACCESS TO A COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW...EXCEPT MAYBE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. ECMWF/GFS AGREE
WITH LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BECOME VFR TOWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING...BUT THEN BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO THE AREA THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...A DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO
15 TO 20 PERCENT...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 263-266 COVERING THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ263>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...13








000
FXUS63 KUNR 232045
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
245 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE GRADUALLY
CLEARING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOUDS EASTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH SITS
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE TAKEN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY...BUT HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
SD.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MOST OF THE ENERGY
NORTH OF OUR CWA. MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ACROSS WESTERN
SD BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WY/CO AND THE EXITING TROUGH.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TONED SPEEDS
DOWN. MAV IS SHOWING BARELY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE MET UNDER CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN REANALYZE.
DECREASED WINDS IN THE GRIDS...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE
TOO STRONG.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER
AIR AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S...50S IN THE HILLS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH COOLER AIR NOW FILTERING IN SUNDAY. WDSPRD PCPN IS
STILL PROGGED TO BEGIN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
SHOW UPPER LOW CROSSING THE COLORADO AREA SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SO NOT MUCH ACCESS TO A COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW...EXCEPT MAYBE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. ECMWF/GFS AGREE
WITH LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BECOME VFR TOWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING...BUT THEN BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO THE AREA THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...A DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO
15 TO 20 PERCENT...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 263-266 COVERING THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ263>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...13







000
FXUS63 KABR 231813 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
113 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...

WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW CRITERIA LEVELS FOR MBG AREA SO HAVE
LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 18Z. WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW PRETTY
HARD FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
WYOMING AND INTO COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT /AROUND 25 MB
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/ HAS SET UP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THEN SWITCH
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...UNTIL THIS
HAPPENS...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE THE CWA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW UP TO 40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN
ABLE TO PULL SOME THE WINDS TO THE SURFACE...KMBG GUSTED TO 48 MPH
WITH A BRIEF SHOWER LAST NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE STRONG WINDS. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
COINCIDENT WITH MODEST 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA
THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING
FURTHER WEST HOWEVER. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON...SO TRENDED POPS DOWN ACROSS THIS
REGION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WHEREAS PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS THEN POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.

PERHAPS SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD TRANSPORT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. IF THE
FORECAST OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MIN RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HOLDS...RED FLAG
WARNINGS MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...GIVEN
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PEAK HEATING
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. HOWEVER FOR NOW JUST WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION FOR THE
MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN/EVOLUTION OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. STRONG
TROF WILL ENTER THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND THEN
CROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY. AT THAT POINT THE PATTERN STARTS TO TURN VERY BLOCKY
AND LEADS TO MOST MODELS CUTTING OFF A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PER VARIOUS UVM PROGS/TROP MAP IT APPEARS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AND MOVE
ACROSS THE ABR CWA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS THOSE TWO PERIODS
SHOULD SEE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...ONE THING STANDS OUT VS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. ALL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THUS HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS ABOUT SUNDAY IF PCPN IS
INDEED AS WIDE SPREAD AS MODELS ALLUDE TO.


&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE MAY AFFECT THE
TAF LOCATIONS AND WILL MONITOR FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...THE
VERY STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AT ALL
LOCATIONS BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING...EXPECT MVFR/LOW VFR
CEILINGS TO FORM AT ABR AND ESPECIALLY ATY WITH SOME LIGHT FOG AT
ATY. THE SKIES WILL GO MOSTLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE WINDS
COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-UPPER CHEYENNE-
     UPPER JAMES RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI COTEAU.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-
     DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 231759
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1159 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS ARE
STARTING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING...AND STILL EXPECT THEM TO BECOME WINDY THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH
SOME CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
TWEAKED POPS AND SKY GRIDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
MT...WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR NORTHEAST WY ZONES. WARM
FRONT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST BC. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
IS BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WITH REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
EARLIER OVER CENTRAL SD NOW. TEMPS ARE VERY MILD THIS
MORNING...WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND
NEB...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
PERKINS TO SHANNON COUNTIES.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...AS IT MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP US ON THE DRIER AND WINDY SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST PUSHES THROUGH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS EACH DAY. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THE SAME AREAS TOMORROW AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND
WESTERN SD THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SD EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDER WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA LATE TODAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THOSE AREAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY
AND THE BLACK HILLS...TO THE 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY THIS EVENING AND FAR NORTHWEST SD EARLY THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM CLIPS THESE
AREAS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THURSDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF SECONDARY LOW THAT
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. MILD
AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...50S OVER
THE BLACK HILLS. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL BE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE NRN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH WDSPRD PCPN WORKING INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. LATEST 00Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE NOW SHIFTING THE MAIN UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH THE CONSENSUS TAKING THE LOW ACROSS KANSAS. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...TEMP PROFILES WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD FOR OUR AREA AND
WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A RAIN EVENT VERSUS SNOW. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THE MODELS TREND BACK FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW THEN SNOW
CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. STAY TUNED AS MODEL SHIFTS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTN. A FEW HIGH
BASED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BRINGING LCL MVFR
VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 231759
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1159 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS ARE
STARTING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING...AND STILL EXPECT THEM TO BECOME WINDY THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH
SOME CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
TWEAKED POPS AND SKY GRIDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
MT...WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR NORTHEAST WY ZONES. WARM
FRONT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST BC. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
IS BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WITH REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
EARLIER OVER CENTRAL SD NOW. TEMPS ARE VERY MILD THIS
MORNING...WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND
NEB...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
PERKINS TO SHANNON COUNTIES.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...AS IT MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP US ON THE DRIER AND WINDY SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST PUSHES THROUGH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS EACH DAY. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THE SAME AREAS TOMORROW AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND
WESTERN SD THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SD EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDER WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA LATE TODAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THOSE AREAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY
AND THE BLACK HILLS...TO THE 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY THIS EVENING AND FAR NORTHWEST SD EARLY THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM CLIPS THESE
AREAS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THURSDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF SECONDARY LOW THAT
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. MILD
AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...50S OVER
THE BLACK HILLS. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL BE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE NRN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH WDSPRD PCPN WORKING INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. LATEST 00Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE NOW SHIFTING THE MAIN UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH THE CONSENSUS TAKING THE LOW ACROSS KANSAS. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...TEMP PROFILES WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD FOR OUR AREA AND
WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A RAIN EVENT VERSUS SNOW. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THE MODELS TREND BACK FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW THEN SNOW
CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. STAY TUNED AS MODEL SHIFTS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTN. A FEW HIGH
BASED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BRINGING LCL MVFR
VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KFSD 231738
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1238 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT RADAR VERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...THOUGH NOT THINKING MUCH RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND WITH
CLOUD BASES RUNNING FROM AROUND 7 TO 10 KFT. THIS CONVECTION LOOKS
TO BE ALIGNED WELL WITH MODEL 700 MB THETA E ADVECTION...AND HI RES
MODELS SHOWING THIS SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. ALSO SEEING CONVECTION DEVELOP THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THAT
STATE. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIFT
ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN
EXPECTING AN OVERALL BREAK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON...FOCUSED THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA/SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONVECTION WILL THEN RAMP
UP THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...THEN
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THIS
BEING FUELED BY STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LIFT THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX STREAMING THROUGH THE WESTERN/CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. COULD
SEE SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...THINK THAT IT WILL
BE ISOLATED AT BEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS
SHOWING MUCAPE VALUES ONLY IN THE RANGE OF 500 TO 700 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 25 KT.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE VERY WINDY TODAY WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT AND
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 40 KT. IN LIGHT OF
THAT...WAS APPROPRIATE TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FROM 15Z
THROUGH 00Z...STAGGERED FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL BE A WIDE
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...TOPPING OUT ONLY
AROUND 60 THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY...TO AS WARM AS THE UPPER 70S
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT NUDGING UP INTO
THAT AREA.

THE SURFACE LOW/ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTION TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
AT NIGHT AND WINDS SLOWLY DYING DOWN. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

IMMEDIATE CONCERN IN THE LONGER RANGE WILL BE FIRE DANGER AND
POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR EAST AT THE START OF THE DAY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO MOVE
OUT OF OUR AREA BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY...WITH STRONG MIXING WITHIN
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM. COOLER MID LEVEL AIR LINGERS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DUE TO THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WILL
HANG ONTO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST OF
KBKX-KMJQ...THOUGH MAINLY HEATING DRIVEN SO EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER DEW POINTS MIXING TO THE SURFACE THAN EVEN RAW
MODEL VALUES SUGGEST...AND THUS HAVE LOWERED DEW POINT VALUES A BIT
FURTHER FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM LOWER
20S WEST TO AROUND 30 EAST. THIS ALONG WITH WELL-MIXED TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S YIELDS A LARGE AREA OF MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 15
TO 20 PERCENT RANGE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SD...THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. HELPING TO MIX DOWN THE
DRY AIR WILL BE WEST WINDS AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THIS
PATTERN HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO
OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHER HUMIDITY AS
WELL AS SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS...THOUGH FIRE DANGER WILL STILL
BE VERY HIGH.

FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK WARMER AS UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. STILL SOME DISCREPANCY REGARDING STRENGTH OF A
TRAILING WAVE AND WHETHER IT WILL DROP A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT INTO
OUR NORTHERN CWA SOME TIME ON FRIDAY. NAM/ECMWF HOLD THE COLD AIR
WILL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO DROP SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND GEM SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE COOL GFS
AND WARM NAM/ECMWF. THAT SAID...EVEN COOLER GFS IS QUITE MILD WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...AND THUS
FELT COMFORTABLE BUMPING TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 70S
SOUTH. DO NOT EXPECT HUMIDITY TO BE AS LOW...NOR WINDS TO BE AS
STRONG AS THURSDAY THOUGH...WITH SLACK GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...
SO FIRE DANGER SHOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK.

LONGER RANGE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE AS MODELS NOT SHOWING GREAT AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK OF
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. FEEL FAIRLY SURE THAT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. BUMPED POPS INTO
LIKELY RANGE FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MOST LOCATIONS MORE LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. GREATER UNCERTAINTY COMES WITH REGARD
TO STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL WARMING...AS NORTHERN TRACK OF ECMWF WOULD
BRING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ON THE
OTHER HAND...GFS/GEM TRACK THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS WITH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR LOCKED IN PLACE AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA. EVEN THE COOLER
MODELS ARE WARMER THAN WAS INDICATED A FEW DAYS AGO...BUT STILL
SEEING SOME 10-20 DEGREE DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SOME LOCATIONS BETWEEN MODELS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM MODEL
CONSENSUS...THOUGH DID GENERALLY MOVE IN A WARMER DIRECTION FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH TREND TOWARD WARMER...ALSO CHOSE TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE...THOUGH
AGAIN MODELS DISAGREE ON JUST HOW COLD...OR HOW LONG THREAT OF
PRECIP WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. WITH CONFIDENCE LOW...MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO GIVEN CONSENSUS GRIDS IN THESE OUTER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 40 KTS AT TIMES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...THEN STEADILY DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AFTER 20Z THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
EXPAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KHON IS LOW...SO DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN
THE TAF. WHILE EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE ON THURSDAY...BUSTING TO NEAR 25 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

CONCERNS OVER POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ARE INCREASING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG MIXING WITHIN
DRYING AIR MASS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY THURSDAY
IS EXPECTED TO YIELD GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...
ALONG WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT FROM THE
LOWER BRULE REGION...THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND INTO THE
LOWER BIG SIOUX RIVER VALLEY AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY WHICH HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS INDICATING THIS
EXPECTED PATTERN...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FIRE ZONES
255...256...258 IN SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS NEBRASKA FIRE ZONE 249.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ255-256-258.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040-055-056-062-
     066-067-070-071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ038-039-050-
     052>054-057>061-063>065-068-069.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
     020>022-031-032.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ249.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...JH







000
FXUS63 KUNR 231606
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1006 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS ARE
STARTING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING...AND STILL EXPECT THEM TO BECOME WINDY THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH
SOME CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
TWEAKED POPS AND SKY GRIDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
MT...WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR NORTHEAST WY ZONES. WARM
FRONT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST BC. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
IS BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WITH REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
EARLIER OVER CENTRAL SD NOW. TEMPS ARE VERY MILD THIS
MORNING...WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND
NEB...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
PERKINS TO SHANNON COUNTIES.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...AS IT MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP US ON THE DRIER AND WINDY SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST PUSHES THROUGH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS EACH DAY. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THE SAME AREAS TOMORROW AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND
WESTERN SD THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SD EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDER WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA LATE TODAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THOSE AREAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY
AND THE BLACK HILLS...TO THE 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY THIS EVENING AND FAR NORTHWEST SD EARLY THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM CLIPS THESE
AREAS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THURSDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF SECONDARY LOW THAT
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. MILD
AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...50S OVER
THE BLACK HILLS. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL BE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE NRN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH WDSPRD PCPN WORKING INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. LATEST 00Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE NOW SHIFTING THE MAIN UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH THE CONSENSUS TAKING THE LOW ACROSS KANSAS. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...TEMP PROFILES WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD FOR OUR AREA AND
WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A RAIN EVENT VERSUS SNOW. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THE MODELS TREND BACK FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW THEN SNOW
CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. STAY TUNED AS MODEL SHIFTS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTN. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR OVER NWRN AND WCNTRL SD WHERE GUSTS TO 40KTS ARE
EXPECTED. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
BRINGING LCL MVFR VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 231606
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1006 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS ARE
STARTING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING...AND STILL EXPECT THEM TO BECOME WINDY THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH
SOME CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
TWEAKED POPS AND SKY GRIDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
MT...WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR NORTHEAST WY ZONES. WARM
FRONT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST BC. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
IS BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WITH REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
EARLIER OVER CENTRAL SD NOW. TEMPS ARE VERY MILD THIS
MORNING...WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND
NEB...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
PERKINS TO SHANNON COUNTIES.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...AS IT MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP US ON THE DRIER AND WINDY SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST PUSHES THROUGH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS EACH DAY. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THE SAME AREAS TOMORROW AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND
WESTERN SD THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SD EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDER WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA LATE TODAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THOSE AREAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY
AND THE BLACK HILLS...TO THE 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY THIS EVENING AND FAR NORTHWEST SD EARLY THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM CLIPS THESE
AREAS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THURSDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF SECONDARY LOW THAT
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. MILD
AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...50S OVER
THE BLACK HILLS. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL BE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE NRN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH WDSPRD PCPN WORKING INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. LATEST 00Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE NOW SHIFTING THE MAIN UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH THE CONSENSUS TAKING THE LOW ACROSS KANSAS. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...TEMP PROFILES WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD FOR OUR AREA AND
WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A RAIN EVENT VERSUS SNOW. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THE MODELS TREND BACK FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW THEN SNOW
CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. STAY TUNED AS MODEL SHIFTS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTN. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR OVER NWRN AND WCNTRL SD WHERE GUSTS TO 40KTS ARE
EXPECTED. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
BRINGING LCL MVFR VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KABR 231546 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1046 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY

HAD TO EXTEND THE MBG AREA WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z DUE TO STRONG
WINDS CONTINUING AT MBG. OTHERWISE...LET THE CENTRAL SD PORTION OF
THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 15Z AS WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN DUE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE SFC TROUGH. STILL EXPECTING GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
ALSO SEEING SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MOVING ACROSS
THE CWA WITHIN WAA ZONE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CURRENT
TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TO CLIMB DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE TRENDS ARE SHOWING BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. STILL A WAYS TO GO TO REALIZE CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS...BUT WITH THE BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND LONG DAYS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WILL LEAVE ALONE FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT IN A
FEW MORE HOURS AND MAKE ANY NECESSARY CHANGES.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
WYOMING AND INTO COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT /AROUND 25 MB
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/ HAS SET UP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THEN SWITCH
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...UNTIL THIS
HAPPENS...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE THE CWA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW UP TO 40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN
ABLE TO PULL SOME THE WINDS TO THE SURFACE...KMBG GUSTED TO 48 MPH
WITH A BRIEF SHOWER LAST NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE STRONG WINDS. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
COINCIDENT WITH MODEST 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA
THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING
FURTHER WEST HOWEVER. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON...SO TRENDED POPS DOWN ACROSS THIS
REGION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WHEREAS PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS THEN POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.

PERHAPS SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD TRANSPORT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. IF THE
FORECAST OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MIN RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HOLDS...RED FLAG
WARNINGS MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...GIVEN
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PEAK HEATING
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. HOWEVER FOR NOW JUST WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION FOR THE
MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN/EVOLUTION OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. STRONG
TROF WILL ENTER THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND THEN
CROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY. AT THAT POINT THE PATTERN STARTS TO TURN VERY BLOCKY
AND LEADS TO MOST MODELS CUTTING OFF A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PER VARIOUS UVM PROGS/TROP MAP IT APPEARS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AND MOVE
ACROSS THE ABR CWA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS THOSE TWO PERIODS
SHOULD SEE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...ONE THING STANDS OUT VS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. ALL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THUS HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS ABOUT SUNDAY IF PCPN IS
INDEED AS WIDE SPREAD AS MODELS ALLUDE TO.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRONG SOUTHEAST BREEZES AND SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING FRONT
CONTINUE SPARK MORE SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED OVER MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-UPPER CHEYENNE-
     UPPER JAMES RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI COTEAU.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAMPBELL-POTTER-
     WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-
     DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 231143
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
643 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT RADAR VERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...THOUGH NOT THINKING MUCH RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND WITH
CLOUD BASES RUNNING FROM AROUND 7 TO 10 KFT. THIS CONVECTION LOOKS
TO BE ALIGNED WELL WITH MODEL 700 MB THETA E ADVECTION...AND HI RES
MODELS SHOWING THIS SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. ALSO SEEING CONVECTION DEVELOP THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THAT
STATE. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIFT
ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN
EXPECTING AN OVERALL BREAK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON...FOCUSED THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA/SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONVECTION WILL THEN RAMP
UP THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...THEN
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THIS
BEING FUELED BY STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LIFT THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX STREAMING THROUGH THE WESTERN/CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. COULD
SEE SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...THINK THAT IT WILL
BE ISOLATED AT BEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS
SHOWING MUCAPE VALUES ONLY IN THE RANGE OF 500 TO 700 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 25 KT.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE VERY WINDY TODAY WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT AND
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 40 KT. IN LIGHT OF
THAT...WAS APPROPRIATE TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FROM 15Z
THROUGH 00Z...STAGGERED FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL BE A WIDE
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...TOPPING OUT ONLY
AROUND 60 THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY...TO AS WARM AS THE UPPER 70S
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT NUDGING UP INTO
THAT AREA.

THE SURFACE LOW/ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTION TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
AT NIGHT AND WINDS SLOWLY DYING DOWN. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

IMMEDIATE CONCERN IN THE LONGER RANGE WILL BE FIRE DANGER AND
POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR EAST AT THE START OF THE DAY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO MOVE
OUT OF OUR AREA BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY...WITH STRONG MIXING WITHIN
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM. COOLER MID LEVEL AIR LINGERS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DUE TO THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WILL
HANG ONTO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST OF
KBKX-KMJQ...THOUGH MAINLY HEATING DRIVEN SO EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER DEW POINTS MIXING TO THE SURFACE THAN EVEN RAW
MODEL VALUES SUGGEST...AND THUS HAVE LOWERED DEW POINT VALUES A BIT
FURTHER FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM LOWER
20S WEST TO AROUND 30 EAST. THIS ALONG WITH WELL-MIXED TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S YIELDS A LARGE AREA OF MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 15
TO 20 PERCENT RANGE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SD...THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. HELPING TO MIX DOWN THE
DRY AIR WILL BE WEST WINDS AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THIS
PATTERN HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO
OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHER HUMIDITY AS
WELL AS SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS...THOUGH FIRE DANGER WILL STILL
BE VERY HIGH.

FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK WARMER AS UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. STILL SOME DISCREPANCY REGARDING STRENGTH OF A
TRAILING WAVE AND WHETHER IT WILL DROP A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT INTO
OUR NORTHERN CWA SOME TIME ON FRIDAY. NAM/ECMWF HOLD THE COLD AIR
WILL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO DROP SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND GEM SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE COOL GFS
AND WARM NAM/ECMWF. THAT SAID...EVEN COOLER GFS IS QUITE MILD WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...AND THUS
FELT COMFORTABLE BUMPING TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 70S
SOUTH. DO NOT EXPECT HUMIDITY TO BE AS LOW...NOR WINDS TO BE AS
STRONG AS THURSDAY THOUGH...WITH SLACK GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...
SO FIRE DANGER SHOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK.

LONGER RANGE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE AS MODELS NOT SHOWING GREAT AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK OF
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. FEEL FAIRLY SURE THAT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. BUMPED POPS INTO
LIKELY RANGE FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MOST LOCATIONS MORE LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. GREATER UNCERTAINTY COMES WITH REGARD
TO STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL WARMING...AS NORTHERN TRACK OF ECMWF WOULD
BRING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ON THE
OTHER HAND...GFS/GEM TRACK THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS WITH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR LOCKED IN PLACE AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA. EVEN THE COOLER
MODELS ARE WARMER THAN WAS INDICATED A FEW DAYS AGO...BUT STILL
SEEING SOME 10-20 DEGREE DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SOME LOCATIONS BETWEEN MODELS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM MODEL
CONSENSUS...THOUGH DID GENERALLY MOVE IN A WARMER DIRECTION FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH TREND TOWARD WARMER...ALSO CHOSE TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE...THOUGH
AGAIN MODELS DISAGREE ON JUST HOW COLD...OR HOW LONG THREAT OF
PRECIP WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. WITH CONFIDENCE LOW...MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO GIVEN CONSENSUS GRIDS IN THESE OUTER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE...STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 35 KTS AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE DROPPING OFF EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN EXPAND TO
THE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KHON IS LOW...SO DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE
TAF. WHILE EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

CONCERNS OVER POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ARE INCREASING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG MIXING WITHIN
DRYING AIR MASS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY THURSDAY
IS EXPECTED TO YIELD GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...
ALONG WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT FROM THE
LOWER BRULE REGION...THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND INTO THE
LOWER BIG SIOUX RIVER VALLEY AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY WHICH HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS INDICATING THIS
EXPECTED PATTERN...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FIRE ZONES
255...256...258 IN SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS NEBRASKA FIRE ZONE 249.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ255-256-258.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ040-055-056-062-066-067-070-071.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR SDZ038-039-050-052>054-057>061-063>065-068-069.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ249.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JM
FIRE WEATHER...JH







000
FXUS63 KABR 231127 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
WYOMING AND INTO COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT /AROUND 25 MB
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/ HAS SET UP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THEN SWITCH
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...UNTIL THIS
HAPPENS...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE THE CWA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW UP TO 40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN
ABLE TO PULL SOME THE WINDS TO THE SURFACE...KMBG GUSTED TO 48 MPH
WITH A BRIEF SHOWER LAST NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE STRONG WINDS. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
COINCIDENT WITH MODEST 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA
THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING
FURTHER WEST HOWEVER. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON...SO TRENDED POPS DOWN ACROSS THIS
REGION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WHEREAS PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS THEN POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.

PERHAPS SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD TRANSPORT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. IF THE
FORECAST OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MIN RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HOLDS...RED FLAG
WARNINGS MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...GIVEN
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PEAK HEATING
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. HOWEVER FOR NOW JUST WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION FOR THE
MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN/EVOLUTION OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. STRONG
TROF WILL ENTER THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND THEN
CROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY. AT THAT POINT THE PATTERN STARTS TO TURN VERY BLOCKY
AND LEADS TO MOST MODELS CUTTING OFF A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PER VARIOUS UVM PROGS/TROP MAP IT APPEARS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AND MOVE
ACROSS THE ABR CWA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS THOSE TWO PERIODS
SHOULD SEE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...ONE THING STANDS OUT VS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. ALL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THUS HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS ABOUT SUNDAY IF PCPN IS
INDEED AS WIDE SPREAD AS MODELS ALLUDE TO.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRONG SOUTHEAST BREEZES AND SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING FRONT
CONTINUE SPARK MORE SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED OVER MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S AND
40S TODAY...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH DRY FUELS TO
RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.

OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES...DRIER AIR SHOULD BE READILY MIXED TO THE SURFACE. THIS
COMBINATION OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND DEAD DRY FUELS...HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-UPPER CHEYENNE-
     UPPER JAMES RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI COTEAU.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 231014 CCA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
513 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
WYOMING AND INTO COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT /AROUND 25 MB
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/ HAS SET UP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THEN SWITCH
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...UNTIL THIS
HAPPENS...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE THE CWA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW UP TO 40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN
ABLE TO PULL SOME THE WINDS TO THE SURFACE...KMBG GUSTED TO 48 MPH
WITH A BRIEF SHOWER LAST NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE STRONG WINDS. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
COINCIDENT WITH MODEST 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA
THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING
FURTHER WEST HOWEVER. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON...SO TRENDED POPS DOWN ACROSS THIS
REGION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WHEREAS PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS THEN POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.

PERHAPS SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD TRANSPORT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. IF THE
FORECAST OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MIN RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HOLDS...RED FLAG
WARNINGS MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...GIVEN
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PEAK HEATING
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. HOWEVER FOR NOW JUST WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THE LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION FOR THE
MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN/EVOLUTION OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. STRONG
TROF WILL ENTER THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND THEN
CROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS LATE
SUNDAY. AT THAT POINT THE PATTERN STARTS TO TURN VERY BLOCKY AND
LEADS TO MOST MODELS CUTTING OFF A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PER VARIOUS UVM PROGS/TROP MAP IT APPEARS A FAIR AMOUNT OF ENERGY
WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE
ABR CWA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS THOSE TWO PERIODS SHOULD SEE
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...ONE THING STANDS OUT VS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. ALL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THUS HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS ABOUT SUNDAY IF PCPN IS
INDEED AS WIDE SPREAD AS MODELS ALLUDE TO.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THUS...THE WINDS
WILL DECREASE AND BECOME NORTHWEST AT PIR...MBG AND ABR INTO THE
EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES. WITH THE STRONG LIFT TONIGHT...HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND COULD AFFECT
ABR AND ATY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S AND
40S TODAY...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH DRY FUELS TO
RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.

OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES...DRIER AIR SHOULD BE READILY MIXED TO THE SURFACE. THIS
COMBINATION OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND DEAD DRY FUELS...HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-UPPER CHEYENNE-
     UPPER JAMES RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI COTEAU.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 231010
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
510 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
WYOMING AND INTO COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT /AROUND 25 MB
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/ HAS SET UP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THEN SWITCH
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...UNTIL THIS
HAPPENS...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE THE CWA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW UP TO 40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN
ABLE TO PULL SOME THE WINDS TO THE SURFACE...KMBG GUSTED TO 48 MPH
WITH A BRIEF SHOWER LAST NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE STRONG WINDS. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
COINCIDENT WITH MODEST 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA
THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING
FURTHER WEST HOWEVER. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON...SO TRENDED POPS DOWN ACROSS THIS
REGION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WHEREAS PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS THEN POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.

PERHAPS SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD TRANSPORT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. IF THE
FORECAST OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MIN RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HOLDS...FIRE WEATHER
WARNINGS MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...GIVEN
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PEAK HEATING
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. HOWEVER FOR NOW JUST WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THE LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION FOR THE
MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN/EVOLUTION OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. STRONG
TROF WILL ENTER THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND THEN
CROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS LATE
SUNDAY. AT THAT POINT THE PATTERN STARTS TO TURN VERY BLOCKY AND
LEADS TO MOST MODELS CUTTING OFF A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PER VARIOUS UVM PROGS/TROP MAP IT APPEARS A FAIR AMOUNT OF ENERGY
WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE
ABR CWA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS THOSE TWO PERIODS SHOULD SEE
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...ONE THING STANDS OUT VS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. ALL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THUS HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS ABOUT SUNDAY IF PCPN IS
INDEED AS WIDE SPREAD AS MODELS ALLUDE TO.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THUS...THE WINDS
WILL DECREASE AND BECOME NORTHWEST AT PIR...MBG AND ABR INTO THE
EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES. WITH THE STRONG LIFT TONIGHT...HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND COULD AFFECT
ABR AND ATY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S AND
40S TODAY...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH DRY FUELS TO
RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.

OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES...DRIER AIR SHOULD BE READILY MIXED TO THE SURFACE. THIS
COMBINATION OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND DEAD DRY FUELS...HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A RED FLAG WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-UPPER CHEYENNE-
     UPPER JAMES RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI COTEAU.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 230950
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
450 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT RADAR VERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...THOUGH NOT THINKING MUCH RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND WITH
CLOUD BASES RUNNING FROM AROUND 7 TO 10 KFT. THIS CONVECTION LOOKS
TO BE ALIGNED WELL WITH MODEL 700 MB THETA E ADVECTION...AND HI RES
MODELS SHOWING THIS SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. ALSO SEEING CONVECTION DEVELOP THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THAT
STATE. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIFT
ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN
EXPECTING AN OVERALL BREAK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON...FOCUSED THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA/SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONVECTION WILL THEN RAMP
UP THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...THEN
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THIS
BEING FUELED BY STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LIFT THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX STREAMING THROUGH THE WESTERN/CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. COULD
SEE SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...THINK THAT IT WILL
BE ISOLATED AT BEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS
SHOWING MUCAPE VALUES ONLY IN THE RANGE OF 500 TO 700 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 25 KT.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE VERY WINDY TODAY WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT AND
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 40 KT. IN LIGHT OF
THAT...WAS APPROPRIATE TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FROM 15Z
THROUGH 00Z...STAGGERED FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL BE A WIDE
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...TOPPING OUT ONLY
AROUND 60 THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY...TO AS WARM AS THE UPPER 70S
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT NUDGING UP INTO
THAT AREA.

THE SURFACE LOW/ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTION TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
AT NIGHT AND WINDS SLOWLY DYING DOWN. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

IMMEDIATE CONCERN IN THE LONGER RANGE WILL BE FIRE DANGER AND
POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR EAST AT THE START OF THE DAY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO MOVE
OUT OF OUR AREA BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY...WITH STRONG MIXING WITHIN
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM. COOLER MID LEVEL AIR LINGERS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DUE TO THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WILL
HANG ONTO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST OF
KBKX-KMJQ...THOUGH MAINLY HEATING DRIVEN SO EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER DEW POINTS MIXING TO THE SURFACE THAN EVEN RAW
MODEL VALUES SUGGEST...AND THUS HAVE LOWERED DEW POINT VALUES A BIT
FURTHER FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM LOWER
20S WEST TO AROUND 30 EAST. THIS ALONG WITH WELL-MIXED TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S YIELDS A LARGE AREA OF MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 15
TO 20 PERCENT RANGE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SD...THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. HELPING TO MIX DOWN THE
DRY AIR WILL BE WEST WINDS AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THIS
PATTERN HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO
OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHER HUMIDITY AS
WELL AS SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS...THOUGH FIRE DANGER WILL STILL
BE VERY HIGH.

FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK WARMER AS UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. STILL SOME DISCREPANCY REGARDING STRENGTH OF A
TRAILING WAVE AND WHETHER IT WILL DROP A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT INTO
OUR NORTHERN CWA SOME TIME ON FRIDAY. NAM/ECMWF HOLD THE COLD AIR
WILL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO DROP SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND GEM SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE COOL GFS
AND WARM NAM/ECMWF. THAT SAID...EVEN COOLER GFS IS QUITE MILD WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...AND THUS
FELT COMFORTABLE BUMPING TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 70S
SOUTH. DO NOT EXPECT HUMIDITY TO BE AS LOW...NOR WINDS TO BE AS
STRONG AS THURSDAY THOUGH...WITH SLACK GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...
SO FIRE DANGER SHOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK.

LONGER RANGE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE AS MODELS NOT SHOWING GREAT AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK OF
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. FEEL FAIRLY SURE THAT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. BUMPED POPS INTO
LIKELY RANGE FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MOST LOCATIONS MORE LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. GREATER UNCERTAINTY COMES WITH REGARD
TO STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL WARMING...AS NORTHERN TRACK OF ECMWF WOULD
BRING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ON THE
OTHER HAND...GFS/GEM TRACK THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS WITH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR LOCKED IN PLACE AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA. EVEN THE COOLER
MODELS ARE WARMER THAN WAS INDICATED A FEW DAYS AGO...BUT STILL
SEEING SOME 10-20 DEGREE DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SOME LOCATIONS BETWEEN MODELS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM MODEL
CONSENSUS...THOUGH DID GENERALLY MOVE IN A WARMER DIRECTION FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH TREND TOWARD WARMER...ALSO CHOSE TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE...THOUGH
AGAIN MODELS DISAGREE ON JUST HOW COLD...OR HOW LONG THREAT OF
PRECIP WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. WITH CONFIDENCE LOW...MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO GIVEN CONSENSUS GRIDS IN THESE OUTER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH 00Z ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING OVER 25 MPH IN THE JAMES VALLEY AND OVER
20 MPH ALONG AND WEST OF I29. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 TO 60 KTS SETS UP ACROSS THE
AREA. BY MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS GUSTING NEAR 40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM MID AFTERNOON IN THE
JAMES VALLEY THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF I29. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS DECREASING AND
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THERE
WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY
OF HITTING ANY TAF LOCATION IS VERY LOW SO DID NOT INCLUDE. THERE
WILL ALSO BE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS COULD EXTEND INTO THE JAMES VALLEY BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS LOW AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN KHON TAF. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TOWARD SIOUX CITY AND POSSIBLY SIOUX
FALLS. FOR NOW ONLY INCLUDED THE THUNDERSTORM WITH NO VSBY OR CIG
RESTRICTION IN BOTH TAFS ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF A STRONGER CELL MOVES IN THE VICINITY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

CONCERNS OVER POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ARE INCREASING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG MIXING WITHIN
DRYING AIR MASS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY THURSDAY
IS EXPECTED TO YIELD GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...
ALONG WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT FROM THE
LOWER BRULE REGION...THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND INTO THE
LOWER BIG SIOUX RIVER VALLEY AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY WHICH HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS INDICATING THIS
EXPECTED PATTERN...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FIRE ZONES
255...256...258 IN SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS NEBRASKA FIRE ZONE 249.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ255-256-258.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ040-055-056-062-066-067-070-071.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR SDZ038-039-050-052>054-057>061-063>065-068-069.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ249.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER
FIRE WEATHER...JH









000
FXUS63 KUNR 230925
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
MT...WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR NORTHEAST WY ZONES. WARM
FRONT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST BC. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
IS BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WITH REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
EARLIER OVER CENTRAL SD NOW. TEMPS ARE VERY MILD THIS
MORNING...WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND
NEB...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
PERKINS TO SHANNON COUNTIES.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...AS IT MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP US ON THE DRIER AND WINDY SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST PUSHES THROUGH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS EACH DAY. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THE SAME AREAS TOMORROW AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND
WESTERN SD THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SD EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDER WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA LATE TODAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THOSE AREAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY
AND THE BLACK HILLS...TO THE 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY THIS EVENING AND FAR NORTHWEST SD EARLY THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM CLIPS THESE
AREAS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THURSDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF SECONDARY LOW THAT
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. MILD
AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...50S OVER
THE BLACK HILLS. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL BE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE NRN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH WDSPRD PCPN WORKING INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. LATEST 00Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE NOW SHIFTING THE MAIN UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH THE CONSENSUS TAKING THE LOW ACROSS KANSAS. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...TEMP PROFILES WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD FOR OUR AREA AND
WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A RAIN EVENT VERSUS SNOW. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THE MODELS TREND BACK FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW THEN SNOW
CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. STAY TUNED AS MODEL SHIFTS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTN. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR OVER NWRN AND WCNTRL SD WHERE GUSTS TO 40KTS ARE
EXPECTED. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
BRINGING LCL MVFR VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KABR 230925
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
425 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
WYOMING AND INTO COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT /AROUND 25 MB
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/ HAS SET UP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THEN SWITCH
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...UNTIL THIS
HAPPENS...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE THE CWA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW UP TO 40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN
ABLE TO PULL SOME THE WINDS TO THE SURFACE...KMBG GUSTED TO 48 MPH
WITH A BRIEF SHOWER LAST NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE STRONG WINDS. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
COINCIDENT WITH MODEST 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA
THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING
FURTHER WEST HOWEVER. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON...SO TRENDED POPS DOWN ACROSS THIS
REGION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WHEREAS PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS THEN POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.

PERHAPS SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD TRANSPORT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. IF THE
FORECAST OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MIN RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HOLDS...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...GIVEN
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PEAK HEATING
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. HOWEVER FOR NOW JUST WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THE LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION FOR THE
MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN/EVOLUTION OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. STRONG
TROF WILL ENTER THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND THEN
CROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS LATE
SUNDAY. AT THAT POINT THE PATTERN STARTS TO TURN VERY BLOCKY AND
LEADS TO MOST MODELS CUTTING OFF A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PER VARIOUS UVM PROGS/TROP MAP IT APPEARS A FAIR AMOUNT OF ENERGY
WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE
ABR CWA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS THOSE TWO PERIODS SHOULD SEE
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...ONE THING STANDS OUT VS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. ALL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THUS HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS ABOUT SUNDAY IF PCPN IS
INDEED AS WIDE SPREAD AS MODELS ALLUDE TO.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THUS...THE WINDS
WILL DECREASE AND BECOME NORTHWEST AT PIR...MBG AND ABR INTO THE
EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES. WITH THE STRONG LIFT TONIGHT...HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND COULD AFFECT
ABR AND ATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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