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000
FXUS63 KFSD 220829
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
329 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SIOUX FALLS
FORECAST AREA TODAY...SITUATING ITSELF PRETTY CLOSE TO OUR MO RIVER
COUNTY ZONES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AN INCREASE IN HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STARVED WITH A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS VALLEY CLOSING THE GULF.
KEPT ONLY CHANCE POPS BY MID AFTERNOON PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST CORNER TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AND THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE JUST SHOWER CHANCES WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY NOTED.
OVERALL THOUGH IT SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE TO START THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ONLY IN THE 60S IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES...BUT 70 TO 75
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ELSEWHERE. TONIGHT...THE TRUE GULF MOISTURE IS
STILL SHUTOFF AS THE BIG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER STREAMLINES ARE
POINTING IN A STRAIGHT EAST TO WEST DIRECTION IN THE GULF COAST
STATES...WITH THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE RIDING UP MORE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS. IN ADDITION...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WEAKENS
AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA UP
AND OVER THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. SO ALL TOLD RAINFALL CHANCES TONIGHT
LOOK FAIRLY SKITTISH WITH LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS CERTAINLY NOT
WARRANTED YET AT THIS TIME. LOWS ARE RATHER TRICKY BECAUSE DESPITE
THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. THEREFORE
SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES WHICH WERE WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S
LOOKED TOO COOL...AND PREFERRED SOME OF THE MORE MILD BIAS CORRECTED
READINGS WHICH GIVE LOWS AROUND 50 OR THE LOWER 50S.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ONCE ANY POTENTIAL MORNING CONVECTION ROLLS THROUGH THE
AREA...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A LACK OF MOISTURE
AND LITTLE FORCING PROMOTES LITTLE ACTIVITY.  STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER...BUT MAINLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLL IN HIGH TEMPERATURES....AND FOR
NOW HAVE SIDED FAIRLY CLOSE TO A CANADIAN/ECMWF BLEND.

SATURDAY NIGHT HOLDS POTENTIAL TO BE A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD AS
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD IN THE LOW LEVEL JET.  UPPER LEVEL WAVE
STILL REMAINS TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EVENING...SHIFTING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAVE CONCENTRATED HIGHEST
POPS IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME.

HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...THOUGH THE
INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM GREAT.  AT THIS POINT...THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LOW.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.  BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH FAIRLY STRONG DRY
AIR PUNCH WORKING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

WITH DRIER MORE STABLE AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION...REDUCED POP
MENTION ON TUESDAY.  ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CREATING MORE MUGGY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. VARIABLE WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER CLOUD BEGIN TO INCREASE BY
MID-DAY...WITH MID-LVL CLOUDS INCREASING BY FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KFSD 220829
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
329 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SIOUX FALLS
FORECAST AREA TODAY...SITUATING ITSELF PRETTY CLOSE TO OUR MO RIVER
COUNTY ZONES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AN INCREASE IN HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STARVED WITH A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS VALLEY CLOSING THE GULF.
KEPT ONLY CHANCE POPS BY MID AFTERNOON PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST CORNER TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AND THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE JUST SHOWER CHANCES WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY NOTED.
OVERALL THOUGH IT SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE TO START THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ONLY IN THE 60S IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES...BUT 70 TO 75
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ELSEWHERE. TONIGHT...THE TRUE GULF MOISTURE IS
STILL SHUTOFF AS THE BIG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER STREAMLINES ARE
POINTING IN A STRAIGHT EAST TO WEST DIRECTION IN THE GULF COAST
STATES...WITH THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE RIDING UP MORE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS. IN ADDITION...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WEAKENS
AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA UP
AND OVER THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. SO ALL TOLD RAINFALL CHANCES TONIGHT
LOOK FAIRLY SKITTISH WITH LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS CERTAINLY NOT
WARRANTED YET AT THIS TIME. LOWS ARE RATHER TRICKY BECAUSE DESPITE
THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. THEREFORE
SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES WHICH WERE WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S
LOOKED TOO COOL...AND PREFERRED SOME OF THE MORE MILD BIAS CORRECTED
READINGS WHICH GIVE LOWS AROUND 50 OR THE LOWER 50S.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ONCE ANY POTENTIAL MORNING CONVECTION ROLLS THROUGH THE
AREA...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A LACK OF MOISTURE
AND LITTLE FORCING PROMOTES LITTLE ACTIVITY.  STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER...BUT MAINLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLL IN HIGH TEMPERATURES....AND FOR
NOW HAVE SIDED FAIRLY CLOSE TO A CANADIAN/ECMWF BLEND.

SATURDAY NIGHT HOLDS POTENTIAL TO BE A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD AS
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD IN THE LOW LEVEL JET.  UPPER LEVEL WAVE
STILL REMAINS TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EVENING...SHIFTING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAVE CONCENTRATED HIGHEST
POPS IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME.

HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...THOUGH THE
INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM GREAT.  AT THIS POINT...THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LOW.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.  BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH FAIRLY STRONG DRY
AIR PUNCH WORKING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

WITH DRIER MORE STABLE AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION...REDUCED POP
MENTION ON TUESDAY.  ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CREATING MORE MUGGY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. VARIABLE WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER CLOUD BEGIN TO INCREASE BY
MID-DAY...WITH MID-LVL CLOUDS INCREASING BY FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KABR 220545 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL BE SPINNING OFF A COUPLE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST BRINGING US CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. UNTIL
THEN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE CWA WILL BUILD SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT OVER
THE CWA. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SUNNY
SKIES...SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 TO 75 DEGREES. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE EC...WERE LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FIRST
SHORT WAVE/WAA AREA LIFTING INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE MUCAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BEST LIFT
ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA. THUS...HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK SOME ACROSS
THE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS AREA MAY STAY DRY AS THE EC
SHOWS. OTHERWISE...THIS FIRST WAVE WILL ROTATE NORTH WHILE THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE/WAA MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE
MUCAPE AVAILABLE ALONG WITH BETTER LIFT. THUS...HAVE BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE COOLER WITH
CLOUD COVER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES THOUGH...MODELS STILL
BRING QPF ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH APPEAR TO BE THE
TWO DAYS WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER IN THE
PERIOD AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND POPS FOR THIS. TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
VALID TAF TIME PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE
KPIR AREA FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN



000
FXUS63 KABR 220545 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL BE SPINNING OFF A COUPLE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST BRINGING US CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. UNTIL
THEN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE CWA WILL BUILD SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT OVER
THE CWA. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SUNNY
SKIES...SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 TO 75 DEGREES. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE EC...WERE LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FIRST
SHORT WAVE/WAA AREA LIFTING INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE MUCAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BEST LIFT
ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA. THUS...HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK SOME ACROSS
THE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS AREA MAY STAY DRY AS THE EC
SHOWS. OTHERWISE...THIS FIRST WAVE WILL ROTATE NORTH WHILE THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE/WAA MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE
MUCAPE AVAILABLE ALONG WITH BETTER LIFT. THUS...HAVE BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE COOLER WITH
CLOUD COVER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES THOUGH...MODELS STILL
BRING QPF ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH APPEAR TO BE THE
TWO DAYS WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER IN THE
PERIOD AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND POPS FOR THIS. TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
VALID TAF TIME PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE
KPIR AREA FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 220545 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL BE SPINNING OFF A COUPLE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST BRINGING US CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. UNTIL
THEN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE CWA WILL BUILD SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT OVER
THE CWA. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SUNNY
SKIES...SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 TO 75 DEGREES. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE EC...WERE LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FIRST
SHORT WAVE/WAA AREA LIFTING INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE MUCAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BEST LIFT
ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA. THUS...HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK SOME ACROSS
THE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS AREA MAY STAY DRY AS THE EC
SHOWS. OTHERWISE...THIS FIRST WAVE WILL ROTATE NORTH WHILE THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE/WAA MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE
MUCAPE AVAILABLE ALONG WITH BETTER LIFT. THUS...HAVE BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE COOLER WITH
CLOUD COVER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES THOUGH...MODELS STILL
BRING QPF ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH APPEAR TO BE THE
TWO DAYS WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER IN THE
PERIOD AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND POPS FOR THIS. TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
VALID TAF TIME PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE
KPIR AREA FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 220545 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL BE SPINNING OFF A COUPLE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST BRINGING US CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. UNTIL
THEN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE CWA WILL BUILD SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT OVER
THE CWA. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SUNNY
SKIES...SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 TO 75 DEGREES. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE EC...WERE LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FIRST
SHORT WAVE/WAA AREA LIFTING INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE MUCAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BEST LIFT
ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA. THUS...HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK SOME ACROSS
THE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS AREA MAY STAY DRY AS THE EC
SHOWS. OTHERWISE...THIS FIRST WAVE WILL ROTATE NORTH WHILE THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE/WAA MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE
MUCAPE AVAILABLE ALONG WITH BETTER LIFT. THUS...HAVE BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE COOLER WITH
CLOUD COVER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES THOUGH...MODELS STILL
BRING QPF ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH APPEAR TO BE THE
TWO DAYS WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER IN THE
PERIOD AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND POPS FOR THIS. TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
VALID TAF TIME PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE
KPIR AREA FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KUNR 220515
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1115 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CURRENT UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE SFC FLOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS COMBINING
WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTN.

FOR TNGT...SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES THIS EVENING. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW AND WILL CROSS COLORADO
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY
FROST DEVELOPMENT ON THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE NEB PANHANDLE...WITH NORTHWARD PROGRESS BEING SLOWED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL NW-SE ORIENTED CONFLUENT ZONE. A NARROW ZONE OF
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SRN CWA.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...SO HAVE KEPT THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY OVER NERN WYOMING ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVE. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT- WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS...BUT THE WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER DRY
AIR TO THE NORTH...SO WILL KEEP ONLY LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHERN
CWA...HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVING OVER THE CWA...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
EASTWARD FOR SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP BUT ARE GENERALLY SHOWING 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION MONDAY...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

3000-5000FT AGL CIGS SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND THE BLACK HILLS.
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH MVFR/LCL IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7



000
FXUS63 KUNR 220515
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1115 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CURRENT UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE SFC FLOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS COMBINING
WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTN.

FOR TNGT...SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES THIS EVENING. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW AND WILL CROSS COLORADO
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY
FROST DEVELOPMENT ON THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE NEB PANHANDLE...WITH NORTHWARD PROGRESS BEING SLOWED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL NW-SE ORIENTED CONFLUENT ZONE. A NARROW ZONE OF
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SRN CWA.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...SO HAVE KEPT THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY OVER NERN WYOMING ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVE. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT- WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS...BUT THE WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER DRY
AIR TO THE NORTH...SO WILL KEEP ONLY LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHERN
CWA...HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVING OVER THE CWA...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
EASTWARD FOR SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP BUT ARE GENERALLY SHOWING 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION MONDAY...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

3000-5000FT AGL CIGS SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND THE BLACK HILLS.
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH MVFR/LCL IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7



000
FXUS63 KUNR 220515
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1115 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CURRENT UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE SFC FLOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS COMBINING
WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTN.

FOR TNGT...SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES THIS EVENING. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW AND WILL CROSS COLORADO
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY
FROST DEVELOPMENT ON THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE NEB PANHANDLE...WITH NORTHWARD PROGRESS BEING SLOWED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL NW-SE ORIENTED CONFLUENT ZONE. A NARROW ZONE OF
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SRN CWA.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...SO HAVE KEPT THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY OVER NERN WYOMING ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVE. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT- WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS...BUT THE WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER DRY
AIR TO THE NORTH...SO WILL KEEP ONLY LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHERN
CWA...HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVING OVER THE CWA...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
EASTWARD FOR SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP BUT ARE GENERALLY SHOWING 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION MONDAY...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

3000-5000FT AGL CIGS SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND THE BLACK HILLS.
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH MVFR/LCL IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7




000
FXUS63 KUNR 220515
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1115 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CURRENT UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE SFC FLOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS COMBINING
WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTN.

FOR TNGT...SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES THIS EVENING. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW AND WILL CROSS COLORADO
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY
FROST DEVELOPMENT ON THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE NEB PANHANDLE...WITH NORTHWARD PROGRESS BEING SLOWED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL NW-SE ORIENTED CONFLUENT ZONE. A NARROW ZONE OF
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SRN CWA.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...SO HAVE KEPT THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY OVER NERN WYOMING ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVE. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT- WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS...BUT THE WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER DRY
AIR TO THE NORTH...SO WILL KEEP ONLY LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHERN
CWA...HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVING OVER THE CWA...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
EASTWARD FOR SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP BUT ARE GENERALLY SHOWING 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION MONDAY...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

3000-5000FT AGL CIGS SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND THE BLACK HILLS.
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH MVFR/LCL IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7




000
FXUS63 KFSD 220326
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1026 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT... AND
WINDS WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH DECOUPLING AND A
RELAXING GRADIENT. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL COOLING. IN
LIGHT OF THAT...STAYED ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MINS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...AND PICK UP IN OUR WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY...AND WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WITH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT NUDGING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ZONES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A
GOOD BIT OF THE DAY...WILL SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH REMAINING IN THE 60S THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MORE QUICKLY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID AND LONG RANGE WHICH
WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY STREAMING NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO 50S ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BUILD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUBDUE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  OVERCAST
SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT
A MID LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE PICTURE ALL DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS WAVE...SO IT
IS HARD TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY MAY BE.
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY COOL IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS EMERGING IN
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIKELY STRENGTHENING
NEAR THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA AND COLORADO BORDER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AGAIN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL UNCERTAIN. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND CAPE LOOK PRETTY WEAK...SO SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
VERY FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WOBBLES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE WAVE OUT FASTER THAN THE
GEM...WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE WAVE AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
EXITING WAVE...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS MODESTLY UNSETTLED INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...SO LEFT IN SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME WITH THE RETURN OF A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. VARIABLE WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER CLOUD BEGIN TO INCREASE BY
MID-DAY...WITH MID-LVL CLOUDS INCREASING BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KFSD 220326
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1026 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT... AND
WINDS WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH DECOUPLING AND A
RELAXING GRADIENT. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL COOLING. IN
LIGHT OF THAT...STAYED ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MINS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...AND PICK UP IN OUR WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY...AND WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WITH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT NUDGING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ZONES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A
GOOD BIT OF THE DAY...WILL SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH REMAINING IN THE 60S THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MORE QUICKLY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID AND LONG RANGE WHICH
WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY STREAMING NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO 50S ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BUILD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUBDUE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  OVERCAST
SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT
A MID LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE PICTURE ALL DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS WAVE...SO IT
IS HARD TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY MAY BE.
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY COOL IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS EMERGING IN
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIKELY STRENGTHENING
NEAR THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA AND COLORADO BORDER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AGAIN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL UNCERTAIN. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND CAPE LOOK PRETTY WEAK...SO SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
VERY FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WOBBLES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE WAVE OUT FASTER THAN THE
GEM...WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE WAVE AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
EXITING WAVE...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS MODESTLY UNSETTLED INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...SO LEFT IN SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME WITH THE RETURN OF A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. VARIABLE WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER CLOUD BEGIN TO INCREASE BY
MID-DAY...WITH MID-LVL CLOUDS INCREASING BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KABR 220156 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
856 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL BE SPINNING OFF A COUPLE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST BRINGING US CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. UNTIL
THEN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE CWA WILL BUILD SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT OVER
THE CWA. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SUNNY
SKIES...SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 TO 75 DEGREES. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE EC...WERE LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FIRST
SHORT WAVE/WAA AREA LIFTING INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE MUCAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BEST LIFT
ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA. THUS...HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK SOME ACROSS
THE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS AREA MAY STAY DRY AS THE EC
SHOWS. OTHERWISE...THIS FIRST WAVE WILL ROTATE NORTH WHILE THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE/WAA MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE
MUCAPE AVAILABLE ALONG WITH BETTER LIFT. THUS...HAVE BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE COOLER WITH
CLOUD COVER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES THOUGH...MODELS STILL
BRING QPF ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH APPEAR TO BE THE
TWO DAYS WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER IN THE
PERIOD AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND POPS FOR THIS. TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
TERMINALS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KABR 220156 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
856 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL BE SPINNING OFF A COUPLE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST BRINGING US CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. UNTIL
THEN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE CWA WILL BUILD SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT OVER
THE CWA. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SUNNY
SKIES...SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 TO 75 DEGREES. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE EC...WERE LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FIRST
SHORT WAVE/WAA AREA LIFTING INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE MUCAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BEST LIFT
ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA. THUS...HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK SOME ACROSS
THE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS AREA MAY STAY DRY AS THE EC
SHOWS. OTHERWISE...THIS FIRST WAVE WILL ROTATE NORTH WHILE THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE/WAA MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE
MUCAPE AVAILABLE ALONG WITH BETTER LIFT. THUS...HAVE BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE COOLER WITH
CLOUD COVER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES THOUGH...MODELS STILL
BRING QPF ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH APPEAR TO BE THE
TWO DAYS WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER IN THE
PERIOD AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND POPS FOR THIS. TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
TERMINALS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TDK



000
FXUS63 KUNR 212348
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
548 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CURRENT UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE SFC FLOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS COMBINING
WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTN.

FOR TNGT...SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES THIS EVENING. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW AND WILL CROSS COLORADO
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY
FROST DEVELOPMENT ON THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE NEB PANHANDLE...WITH NORTHWARD PROGRESS BEING SLOWED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL NW-SE ORIENTED CONFLUENT ZONE. A NARROW ZONE OF
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SRN CWA.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...SO HAVE KEPT THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY OVER NERN WYOMING ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVE. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT- WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS...BUT THE WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER DRY
AIR TO THE NORTH...SO WILL KEEP ONLY LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHERN
CWA...HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVING OVER THE CWA...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
EASTWARD FOR SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP BUT ARE GENERALLY SHOWING 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION MONDAY...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

3000-5000FT AGL CIGS SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND THE BLACK HILLS.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY...WITH MVFR/LCL IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7




000
FXUS63 KUNR 212348
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
548 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CURRENT UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE SFC FLOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS COMBINING
WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTN.

FOR TNGT...SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES THIS EVENING. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW AND WILL CROSS COLORADO
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY
FROST DEVELOPMENT ON THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE NEB PANHANDLE...WITH NORTHWARD PROGRESS BEING SLOWED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL NW-SE ORIENTED CONFLUENT ZONE. A NARROW ZONE OF
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SRN CWA.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...SO HAVE KEPT THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY OVER NERN WYOMING ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVE. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT- WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS...BUT THE WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER DRY
AIR TO THE NORTH...SO WILL KEEP ONLY LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHERN
CWA...HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVING OVER THE CWA...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
EASTWARD FOR SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP BUT ARE GENERALLY SHOWING 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION MONDAY...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

3000-5000FT AGL CIGS SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND THE BLACK HILLS.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY...WITH MVFR/LCL IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7




000
FXUS63 KUNR 212348
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
548 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CURRENT UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE SFC FLOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS COMBINING
WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTN.

FOR TNGT...SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES THIS EVENING. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW AND WILL CROSS COLORADO
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY
FROST DEVELOPMENT ON THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE NEB PANHANDLE...WITH NORTHWARD PROGRESS BEING SLOWED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL NW-SE ORIENTED CONFLUENT ZONE. A NARROW ZONE OF
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SRN CWA.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...SO HAVE KEPT THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY OVER NERN WYOMING ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVE. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT- WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS...BUT THE WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER DRY
AIR TO THE NORTH...SO WILL KEEP ONLY LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHERN
CWA...HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVING OVER THE CWA...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
EASTWARD FOR SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP BUT ARE GENERALLY SHOWING 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION MONDAY...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

3000-5000FT AGL CIGS SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND THE BLACK HILLS.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY...WITH MVFR/LCL IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7




000
FXUS63 KUNR 212348
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
548 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CURRENT UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE SFC FLOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS COMBINING
WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTN.

FOR TNGT...SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES THIS EVENING. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW AND WILL CROSS COLORADO
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY
FROST DEVELOPMENT ON THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE NEB PANHANDLE...WITH NORTHWARD PROGRESS BEING SLOWED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL NW-SE ORIENTED CONFLUENT ZONE. A NARROW ZONE OF
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SRN CWA.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...SO HAVE KEPT THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY OVER NERN WYOMING ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVE. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT- WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS...BUT THE WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER DRY
AIR TO THE NORTH...SO WILL KEEP ONLY LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHERN
CWA...HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVING OVER THE CWA...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
EASTWARD FOR SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP BUT ARE GENERALLY SHOWING 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION MONDAY...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

3000-5000FT AGL CIGS SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND THE BLACK HILLS.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY...WITH MVFR/LCL IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7




000
FXUS63 KUNR 212348
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
548 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CURRENT UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE SFC FLOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS COMBINING
WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTN.

FOR TNGT...SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES THIS EVENING. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW AND WILL CROSS COLORADO
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY
FROST DEVELOPMENT ON THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE NEB PANHANDLE...WITH NORTHWARD PROGRESS BEING SLOWED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL NW-SE ORIENTED CONFLUENT ZONE. A NARROW ZONE OF
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SRN CWA.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...SO HAVE KEPT THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY OVER NERN WYOMING ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVE. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT- WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS...BUT THE WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER DRY
AIR TO THE NORTH...SO WILL KEEP ONLY LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHERN
CWA...HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVING OVER THE CWA...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
EASTWARD FOR SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP BUT ARE GENERALLY SHOWING 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION MONDAY...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

3000-5000FT AGL CIGS SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND THE BLACK HILLS.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY...WITH MVFR/LCL IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7




000
FXUS63 KUNR 212348
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
548 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CURRENT UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE SFC FLOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS COMBINING
WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTN.

FOR TNGT...SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES THIS EVENING. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW AND WILL CROSS COLORADO
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY
FROST DEVELOPMENT ON THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE NEB PANHANDLE...WITH NORTHWARD PROGRESS BEING SLOWED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL NW-SE ORIENTED CONFLUENT ZONE. A NARROW ZONE OF
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SRN CWA.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...SO HAVE KEPT THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY OVER NERN WYOMING ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVE. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT- WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS...BUT THE WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER DRY
AIR TO THE NORTH...SO WILL KEEP ONLY LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHERN
CWA...HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVING OVER THE CWA...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
EASTWARD FOR SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP BUT ARE GENERALLY SHOWING 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION MONDAY...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

3000-5000FT AGL CIGS SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND THE BLACK HILLS.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY...WITH MVFR/LCL IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7



000
FXUS63 KFSD 212310
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
610 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT... AND
WINDS WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH DECOUPLING AND A
RELAXING GRADIENT. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL COOLING. IN
LIGHT OF THAT...STAYED ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MINS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...AND PICK UP IN OUR WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY...AND WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WITH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT NUDGING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ZONES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A
GOOD BIT OF THE DAY...WILL SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH REMAINING IN THE 60S THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MORE QUICKLY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID AND LONG RANGE WHICH
WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY STREAMING NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO 50S ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BUILD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUBDUE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  OVERCAST
SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT
A MID LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE PICTURE ALL DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS WAVE...SO IT
IS HARD TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY MAY BE.
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY COOL IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS EMERGING IN
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIKELY STRENGTHENING
NEAR THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA AND COLORADO BORDER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AGAIN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL UNCERTAIN. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND CAPE LOOK PRETTY WEAK...SO SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
VERY FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WOBBLES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE WAVE OUT FASTER THAN THE
GEM...WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE WAVE AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
EXITING WAVE...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS MODESTLY UNSETTLED INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...SO LEFT IN SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME WITH THE RETURN OF A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL TURN VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING. WATCH FOR INCREASING UPR AND MID-LVL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KFSD 212310
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
610 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT... AND
WINDS WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH DECOUPLING AND A
RELAXING GRADIENT. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL COOLING. IN
LIGHT OF THAT...STAYED ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MINS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...AND PICK UP IN OUR WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY...AND WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WITH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT NUDGING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ZONES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A
GOOD BIT OF THE DAY...WILL SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH REMAINING IN THE 60S THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MORE QUICKLY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID AND LONG RANGE WHICH
WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY STREAMING NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO 50S ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BUILD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUBDUE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  OVERCAST
SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT
A MID LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE PICTURE ALL DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS WAVE...SO IT
IS HARD TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY MAY BE.
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY COOL IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS EMERGING IN
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIKELY STRENGTHENING
NEAR THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA AND COLORADO BORDER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AGAIN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL UNCERTAIN. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND CAPE LOOK PRETTY WEAK...SO SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
VERY FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WOBBLES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE WAVE OUT FASTER THAN THE
GEM...WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE WAVE AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
EXITING WAVE...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS MODESTLY UNSETTLED INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...SO LEFT IN SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME WITH THE RETURN OF A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL TURN VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING. WATCH FOR INCREASING UPR AND MID-LVL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KFSD 212310
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
610 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT... AND
WINDS WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH DECOUPLING AND A
RELAXING GRADIENT. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL COOLING. IN
LIGHT OF THAT...STAYED ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MINS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...AND PICK UP IN OUR WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY...AND WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WITH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT NUDGING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ZONES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A
GOOD BIT OF THE DAY...WILL SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH REMAINING IN THE 60S THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MORE QUICKLY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID AND LONG RANGE WHICH
WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY STREAMING NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO 50S ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BUILD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUBDUE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  OVERCAST
SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT
A MID LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE PICTURE ALL DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS WAVE...SO IT
IS HARD TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY MAY BE.
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY COOL IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS EMERGING IN
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIKELY STRENGTHENING
NEAR THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA AND COLORADO BORDER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AGAIN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL UNCERTAIN. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND CAPE LOOK PRETTY WEAK...SO SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
VERY FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WOBBLES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE WAVE OUT FASTER THAN THE
GEM...WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE WAVE AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
EXITING WAVE...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS MODESTLY UNSETTLED INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...SO LEFT IN SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME WITH THE RETURN OF A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL TURN VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING. WATCH FOR INCREASING UPR AND MID-LVL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 212059
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT... AND
WINDS WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH DECOUPLING AND A
RELAXING GRADIENT. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL COOLING. IN
LIGHT OF THAT...STAYED ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MINS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...AND PICK UP IN OUR WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY...AND WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WITH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT NUDGING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ZONES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A
GOOD BIT OF THE DAY...WILL SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH REMAINING IN THE 60S THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MORE QUICKLY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID AND LONG RANGE WHICH
WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY STREAMING NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO 50S ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BUILD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUBDUE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  OVERCAST
SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT
A MID LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE PICTURE ALL DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS WAVE...SO IT
IS HARD TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY MAY BE.
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY COOL IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS EMERGING IN
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIKELY STRENGTHENING
NEAR THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA AND COLORADO BORDER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AGAIN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL UNCERTAIN. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND CAPE LOOK PRETTY WEAK...SO SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
VERY FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WOBBLES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE WAVE OUT FASTER THAN THE
GEM...WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE WAVE AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
EXITING WAVE...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS MODESTLY UNSETTLED INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...SO LEFT IN SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME WITH THE RETURN OF A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM



000
FXUS63 KFSD 212059
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT... AND
WINDS WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH DECOUPLING AND A
RELAXING GRADIENT. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL COOLING. IN
LIGHT OF THAT...STAYED ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MINS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...AND PICK UP IN OUR WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY...AND WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WITH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT NUDGING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ZONES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A
GOOD BIT OF THE DAY...WILL SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH REMAINING IN THE 60S THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MORE QUICKLY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID AND LONG RANGE WHICH
WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY STREAMING NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO 50S ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BUILD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUBDUE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  OVERCAST
SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT
A MID LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE PICTURE ALL DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS WAVE...SO IT
IS HARD TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY MAY BE.
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY COOL IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS EMERGING IN
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIKELY STRENGTHENING
NEAR THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA AND COLORADO BORDER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AGAIN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL UNCERTAIN. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND CAPE LOOK PRETTY WEAK...SO SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
VERY FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WOBBLES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE WAVE OUT FASTER THAN THE
GEM...WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE WAVE AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
EXITING WAVE...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS MODESTLY UNSETTLED INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...SO LEFT IN SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME WITH THE RETURN OF A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 212059
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT... AND
WINDS WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH DECOUPLING AND A
RELAXING GRADIENT. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL COOLING. IN
LIGHT OF THAT...STAYED ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MINS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...AND PICK UP IN OUR WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY...AND WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WITH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT NUDGING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ZONES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A
GOOD BIT OF THE DAY...WILL SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH REMAINING IN THE 60S THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MORE QUICKLY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID AND LONG RANGE WHICH
WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY STREAMING NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO 50S ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BUILD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUBDUE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  OVERCAST
SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT
A MID LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE PICTURE ALL DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS WAVE...SO IT
IS HARD TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY MAY BE.
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY COOL IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS EMERGING IN
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIKELY STRENGTHENING
NEAR THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA AND COLORADO BORDER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AGAIN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL UNCERTAIN. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND CAPE LOOK PRETTY WEAK...SO SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
VERY FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WOBBLES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE WAVE OUT FASTER THAN THE
GEM...WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE WAVE AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
EXITING WAVE...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS MODESTLY UNSETTLED INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...SO LEFT IN SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME WITH THE RETURN OF A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KUNR 212043
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
243 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CURRENT UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE SFC FLOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS COMBINING
WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTN.

FOR TNGT...SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS AS THE
BOUNDARLY LAYER DECOUPLES THIS EVENING. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW AND WILL CROSS COLORADO TONIGHT.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT ON
THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE NEB PANHANDLE...WITH NORTHWARD PROGRESS BEING SLOWED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL NW-SE ORIENTED CONFLUENT ZONE. A NARROW ZONE OF
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SRN CWA.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...SO HAVE KEPT THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY OVER NERN WYOMING ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVE. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT- WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS...BUT THE WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER DRY
AIR TO THE NORTH...SO WILL KEEP ONLY LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHERN
CWA...HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVING OVER THE CWA...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
EASTWARD FOR SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP BUT ARE GENERALLY SHOWING 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION MONDAY...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
WY...SOUTHWEST SD...AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE



000
FXUS63 KUNR 212043
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
243 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CURRENT UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE SFC FLOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS COMBINING
WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTN.

FOR TNGT...SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS AS THE
BOUNDARLY LAYER DECOUPLES THIS EVENING. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW AND WILL CROSS COLORADO TONIGHT.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT ON
THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE NEB PANHANDLE...WITH NORTHWARD PROGRESS BEING SLOWED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL NW-SE ORIENTED CONFLUENT ZONE. A NARROW ZONE OF
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SRN CWA.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...SO HAVE KEPT THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY OVER NERN WYOMING ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVE. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT- WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS...BUT THE WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER DRY
AIR TO THE NORTH...SO WILL KEEP ONLY LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHERN
CWA...HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVING OVER THE CWA...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
EASTWARD FOR SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP BUT ARE GENERALLY SHOWING 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION MONDAY...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
WY...SOUTHWEST SD...AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE



000
FXUS63 KUNR 212043
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
243 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CURRENT UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE SFC FLOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS COMBINING
WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTN.

FOR TNGT...SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS AS THE
BOUNDARLY LAYER DECOUPLES THIS EVENING. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW AND WILL CROSS COLORADO TONIGHT.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT ON
THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE NEB PANHANDLE...WITH NORTHWARD PROGRESS BEING SLOWED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL NW-SE ORIENTED CONFLUENT ZONE. A NARROW ZONE OF
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SRN CWA.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...SO HAVE KEPT THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY OVER NERN WYOMING ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVE. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT- WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS...BUT THE WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER DRY
AIR TO THE NORTH...SO WILL KEEP ONLY LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHERN
CWA...HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVING OVER THE CWA...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
EASTWARD FOR SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP BUT ARE GENERALLY SHOWING 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION MONDAY...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
WY...SOUTHWEST SD...AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE



000
FXUS63 KUNR 212043
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
243 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CURRENT UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE SFC FLOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS COMBINING
WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTN.

FOR TNGT...SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS AS THE
BOUNDARLY LAYER DECOUPLES THIS EVENING. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW AND WILL CROSS COLORADO TONIGHT.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT ON
THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE NEB PANHANDLE...WITH NORTHWARD PROGRESS BEING SLOWED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL NW-SE ORIENTED CONFLUENT ZONE. A NARROW ZONE OF
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SRN CWA.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...SO HAVE KEPT THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY OVER NERN WYOMING ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVE. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT- WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS...BUT THE WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER DRY
AIR TO THE NORTH...SO WILL KEEP ONLY LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHERN
CWA...HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVING OVER THE CWA...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
EASTWARD FOR SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP BUT ARE GENERALLY SHOWING 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION MONDAY...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
WY...SOUTHWEST SD...AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE



000
FXUS63 KUNR 212043
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
243 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CURRENT UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE SFC FLOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS COMBINING
WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTN.

FOR TNGT...SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS AS THE
BOUNDARLY LAYER DECOUPLES THIS EVENING. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW AND WILL CROSS COLORADO TONIGHT.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT ON
THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE NEB PANHANDLE...WITH NORTHWARD PROGRESS BEING SLOWED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL NW-SE ORIENTED CONFLUENT ZONE. A NARROW ZONE OF
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SRN CWA.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...SO HAVE KEPT THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY OVER NERN WYOMING ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVE. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT- WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS...BUT THE WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER DRY
AIR TO THE NORTH...SO WILL KEEP ONLY LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHERN
CWA...HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVING OVER THE CWA...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
EASTWARD FOR SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP BUT ARE GENERALLY SHOWING 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION MONDAY...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
WY...SOUTHWEST SD...AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE



000
FXUS63 KUNR 212043
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
243 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CURRENT UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE SFC FLOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS COMBINING
WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTN.

FOR TNGT...SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS AS THE
BOUNDARLY LAYER DECOUPLES THIS EVENING. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW AND WILL CROSS COLORADO TONIGHT.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT ON
THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE NEB PANHANDLE...WITH NORTHWARD PROGRESS BEING SLOWED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL NW-SE ORIENTED CONFLUENT ZONE. A NARROW ZONE OF
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SRN CWA.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...SO HAVE KEPT THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY OVER NERN WYOMING ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVE. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT- WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS...BUT THE WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER DRY
AIR TO THE NORTH...SO WILL KEEP ONLY LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHERN
CWA...HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVING OVER THE CWA...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
EASTWARD FOR SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP BUT ARE GENERALLY SHOWING 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION MONDAY...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
WY...SOUTHWEST SD...AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KABR 212025
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL BE SPINNING OFF A COUPLE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST BRINGING US CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. UNTIL
THEN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE CWA WILL BUILD SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT OVER
THE CWA. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SUNNY
SKIES...SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 TO 75 DEGREES. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE EC...WERE LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FIRST
SHORT WAVE/WAA AREA LIFTING INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE MUCAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BEST LIFT
ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA. THUS...HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK SOME ACROSS
THE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS AREA MAY STAY DRY AS THE EC
SHOWS. OTHERWISE...THIS FIRST WAVE WILL ROTATE NORTH WHILE THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE/WAA MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE
MUCAPE AVAILABLE ALONG WITH BETTER LIFT. THUS...HAVE BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE COOLER WITH
CLOUD COVER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES THOUGH...MODELS STILL
BRING QPF ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH APPEAR TO BE THE
TWO DAYS WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER IN THE
PERIOD AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND POPS FOR THIS. TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT




000
FXUS63 KABR 212025
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL BE SPINNING OFF A COUPLE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST BRINGING US CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. UNTIL
THEN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE CWA WILL BUILD SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT OVER
THE CWA. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SUNNY
SKIES...SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 TO 75 DEGREES. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE EC...WERE LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FIRST
SHORT WAVE/WAA AREA LIFTING INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE MUCAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BEST LIFT
ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA. THUS...HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK SOME ACROSS
THE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS AREA MAY STAY DRY AS THE EC
SHOWS. OTHERWISE...THIS FIRST WAVE WILL ROTATE NORTH WHILE THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE/WAA MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE
MUCAPE AVAILABLE ALONG WITH BETTER LIFT. THUS...HAVE BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE COOLER WITH
CLOUD COVER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES THOUGH...MODELS STILL
BRING QPF ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH APPEAR TO BE THE
TWO DAYS WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER IN THE
PERIOD AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND POPS FOR THIS. TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT



000
FXUS63 KABR 211746 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1246 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SUNNY SKIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO REMAIN
IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE TROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO SEEING SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THE WINDS HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED...AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION /50S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREA/.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER HOWEVER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS RETURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME GUSTY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK
RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WELL DEFINED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS
FEATURE DOWN...SO TRENDED SLOWER WITH POPS. THE MAIN UPPER LOW THEN
MOVES EAST WITH STRONGER FORCING SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST A WELL SATURATED
COLUMN...SO FORECAST POPS INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE SATURDAY TIME
PERIOD. OVERALL IT LOOKS PRETTY STABLE...SO GENERAL THUNDER IS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS OF GREATER BULK SHEAR SO CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MORE WET THAN DRY. PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AS THE LOW MEANDERS ITS WAY SLOWLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY. MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT/MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TMT




000
FXUS63 KABR 211746 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1246 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SUNNY SKIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO REMAIN
IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE TROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO SEEING SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THE WINDS HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED...AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION /50S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREA/.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER HOWEVER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS RETURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME GUSTY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK
RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WELL DEFINED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS
FEATURE DOWN...SO TRENDED SLOWER WITH POPS. THE MAIN UPPER LOW THEN
MOVES EAST WITH STRONGER FORCING SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST A WELL SATURATED
COLUMN...SO FORECAST POPS INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE SATURDAY TIME
PERIOD. OVERALL IT LOOKS PRETTY STABLE...SO GENERAL THUNDER IS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS OF GREATER BULK SHEAR SO CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MORE WET THAN DRY. PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AS THE LOW MEANDERS ITS WAY SLOWLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY. MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT/MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TMT



000
FXUS63 KUNR 211734
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1134 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PUSHED AN AREA OF
LOW STRATUS INTO PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO INCREASED MIXING
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES
PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN EXISTS WITH A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE
COVERING WRN CANADA BUT WITH A TROUGH UNDERCUTTING IT OVER THE
SWRN CONUS. A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MEAN
TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM. THE RESULT OVER THE BLKHLS AREA WAS CON-
FLUENT UPPER FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
THE SWRN CWA...AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER WRN NEB THAT WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS OVER SWRN SD/NERN WY. THE INTERPLAY
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOWS OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND HUDSON BAY WILL BE
THE LARGE-SCALE DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY.

FOR TODAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH RETURN SOUTHEAST SFC
FLOW DEVELOPING. 850-MB TEMPS WILL RISE 4-6C AND WILL HELP TEMPS
RISE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR A CHANGE. THE CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL KEEP FAIR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT
FOR THE SWRN THIRD OR SO. FOR TNGT...SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW CONTINUES
WITH A 1O-KT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS CO TO NEAR KDEN BY 12Z THU.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL FROST.

FOR FRIDAY...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NEB PANHANDLE...BEING SLOWED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE. A
NARROW ZONE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SRN CWA...AND THIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH AGAINST THE DRY
AIR AND DEFORMATION ZONE. CAPE AND INSTABILITY PROGS ARE QUITE
MEAGER...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON THE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
CWA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT LOW-LEVELS IS NOTED...BUT THE WAVE
WILL ENCOUNTER DRY AIR TO THE NORTH...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CAPE ALSO IS MINIMAL...THUS HAVE CUT
BACK ON COVERAGE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE
VARIOUS MODELS STILL DIFFER ON SPECIFICS SUCH AS TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF BEST PCPN CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAJORITY OF 00Z
MODELS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS
FOR ANY HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
ANY STRONGER STORMS TO MOSTLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS...AND ESPECIALLY OVER NEB...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES THERE IN THE EVENING. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOKS MORE LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO ANY THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...THE BETTER COVERAGE FOR RAINFALL WOULD MOST
LIKELY SHIFT TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WEAKER DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND...
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
WY...SOUTHWEST SD...AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 211734
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1134 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PUSHED AN AREA OF
LOW STRATUS INTO PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO INCREASED MIXING
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES
PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN EXISTS WITH A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE
COVERING WRN CANADA BUT WITH A TROUGH UNDERCUTTING IT OVER THE
SWRN CONUS. A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MEAN
TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM. THE RESULT OVER THE BLKHLS AREA WAS CON-
FLUENT UPPER FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
THE SWRN CWA...AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER WRN NEB THAT WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS OVER SWRN SD/NERN WY. THE INTERPLAY
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOWS OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND HUDSON BAY WILL BE
THE LARGE-SCALE DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY.

FOR TODAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH RETURN SOUTHEAST SFC
FLOW DEVELOPING. 850-MB TEMPS WILL RISE 4-6C AND WILL HELP TEMPS
RISE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR A CHANGE. THE CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL KEEP FAIR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT
FOR THE SWRN THIRD OR SO. FOR TNGT...SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW CONTINUES
WITH A 1O-KT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS CO TO NEAR KDEN BY 12Z THU.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL FROST.

FOR FRIDAY...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NEB PANHANDLE...BEING SLOWED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE. A
NARROW ZONE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SRN CWA...AND THIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH AGAINST THE DRY
AIR AND DEFORMATION ZONE. CAPE AND INSTABILITY PROGS ARE QUITE
MEAGER...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON THE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
CWA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT LOW-LEVELS IS NOTED...BUT THE WAVE
WILL ENCOUNTER DRY AIR TO THE NORTH...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CAPE ALSO IS MINIMAL...THUS HAVE CUT
BACK ON COVERAGE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE
VARIOUS MODELS STILL DIFFER ON SPECIFICS SUCH AS TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF BEST PCPN CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAJORITY OF 00Z
MODELS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS
FOR ANY HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
ANY STRONGER STORMS TO MOSTLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS...AND ESPECIALLY OVER NEB...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES THERE IN THE EVENING. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOKS MORE LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO ANY THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...THE BETTER COVERAGE FOR RAINFALL WOULD MOST
LIKELY SHIFT TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WEAKER DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND...
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
WY...SOUTHWEST SD...AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 211734
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1134 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PUSHED AN AREA OF
LOW STRATUS INTO PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO INCREASED MIXING
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES
PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN EXISTS WITH A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE
COVERING WRN CANADA BUT WITH A TROUGH UNDERCUTTING IT OVER THE
SWRN CONUS. A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MEAN
TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM. THE RESULT OVER THE BLKHLS AREA WAS CON-
FLUENT UPPER FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
THE SWRN CWA...AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER WRN NEB THAT WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS OVER SWRN SD/NERN WY. THE INTERPLAY
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOWS OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND HUDSON BAY WILL BE
THE LARGE-SCALE DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY.

FOR TODAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH RETURN SOUTHEAST SFC
FLOW DEVELOPING. 850-MB TEMPS WILL RISE 4-6C AND WILL HELP TEMPS
RISE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR A CHANGE. THE CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL KEEP FAIR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT
FOR THE SWRN THIRD OR SO. FOR TNGT...SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW CONTINUES
WITH A 1O-KT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS CO TO NEAR KDEN BY 12Z THU.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL FROST.

FOR FRIDAY...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NEB PANHANDLE...BEING SLOWED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE. A
NARROW ZONE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SRN CWA...AND THIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH AGAINST THE DRY
AIR AND DEFORMATION ZONE. CAPE AND INSTABILITY PROGS ARE QUITE
MEAGER...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON THE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
CWA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT LOW-LEVELS IS NOTED...BUT THE WAVE
WILL ENCOUNTER DRY AIR TO THE NORTH...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CAPE ALSO IS MINIMAL...THUS HAVE CUT
BACK ON COVERAGE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE
VARIOUS MODELS STILL DIFFER ON SPECIFICS SUCH AS TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF BEST PCPN CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAJORITY OF 00Z
MODELS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS
FOR ANY HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
ANY STRONGER STORMS TO MOSTLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS...AND ESPECIALLY OVER NEB...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES THERE IN THE EVENING. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOKS MORE LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO ANY THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...THE BETTER COVERAGE FOR RAINFALL WOULD MOST
LIKELY SHIFT TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WEAKER DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND...
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
WY...SOUTHWEST SD...AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 211734
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1134 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PUSHED AN AREA OF
LOW STRATUS INTO PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO INCREASED MIXING
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES
PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN EXISTS WITH A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE
COVERING WRN CANADA BUT WITH A TROUGH UNDERCUTTING IT OVER THE
SWRN CONUS. A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MEAN
TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM. THE RESULT OVER THE BLKHLS AREA WAS CON-
FLUENT UPPER FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
THE SWRN CWA...AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER WRN NEB THAT WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS OVER SWRN SD/NERN WY. THE INTERPLAY
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOWS OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND HUDSON BAY WILL BE
THE LARGE-SCALE DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY.

FOR TODAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH RETURN SOUTHEAST SFC
FLOW DEVELOPING. 850-MB TEMPS WILL RISE 4-6C AND WILL HELP TEMPS
RISE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR A CHANGE. THE CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL KEEP FAIR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT
FOR THE SWRN THIRD OR SO. FOR TNGT...SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW CONTINUES
WITH A 1O-KT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS CO TO NEAR KDEN BY 12Z THU.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL FROST.

FOR FRIDAY...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NEB PANHANDLE...BEING SLOWED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE. A
NARROW ZONE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SRN CWA...AND THIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH AGAINST THE DRY
AIR AND DEFORMATION ZONE. CAPE AND INSTABILITY PROGS ARE QUITE
MEAGER...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON THE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
CWA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT LOW-LEVELS IS NOTED...BUT THE WAVE
WILL ENCOUNTER DRY AIR TO THE NORTH...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CAPE ALSO IS MINIMAL...THUS HAVE CUT
BACK ON COVERAGE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE
VARIOUS MODELS STILL DIFFER ON SPECIFICS SUCH AS TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF BEST PCPN CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAJORITY OF 00Z
MODELS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS
FOR ANY HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
ANY STRONGER STORMS TO MOSTLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS...AND ESPECIALLY OVER NEB...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES THERE IN THE EVENING. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOKS MORE LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO ANY THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...THE BETTER COVERAGE FOR RAINFALL WOULD MOST
LIKELY SHIFT TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WEAKER DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND...
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
WY...SOUTHWEST SD...AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KFSD 211711
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1211 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY NICE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TIGHTER
GRADIENT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PREVALENT MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DECREASING WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT
DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD IN AS MAIN WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
SOME THUNDER...AND FAVOR THE GFS AND EC OVER THE NAM ON THIS WITH
THE NAM LOOKING TOO SLOW ON DEVELOPING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHOWER CHANCE LATE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 60S SOUTHWEST UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

ONE THING LOOKS CLEAR CUT FROM ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...ACTUALLY CALL
IT CLOUDY CUT...AND THAT IS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE SUN THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH A LOT OF 60S TO LOW 70S HIGHS AND 50S LOWS.

FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAVES FROM A
DECAYING MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE PICTURE. AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD DRY
SOME...SUNSHINE SHOULD PARTIALLY RETURN...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARM SOME...LIKE INTO THE 70S. THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN...BUT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
LOON IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...SO THERE WILL BE NO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 211711
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1211 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY NICE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TIGHTER
GRADIENT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PREVALENT MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DECREASING WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT
DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD IN AS MAIN WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
SOME THUNDER...AND FAVOR THE GFS AND EC OVER THE NAM ON THIS WITH
THE NAM LOOKING TOO SLOW ON DEVELOPING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHOWER CHANCE LATE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 60S SOUTHWEST UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

ONE THING LOOKS CLEAR CUT FROM ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...ACTUALLY CALL
IT CLOUDY CUT...AND THAT IS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE SUN THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH A LOT OF 60S TO LOW 70S HIGHS AND 50S LOWS.

FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAVES FROM A
DECAYING MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE PICTURE. AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD DRY
SOME...SUNSHINE SHOULD PARTIALLY RETURN...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARM SOME...LIKE INTO THE 70S. THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN...BUT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
LOON IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...SO THERE WILL BE NO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 211711
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1211 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY NICE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TIGHTER
GRADIENT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PREVALENT MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DECREASING WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT
DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD IN AS MAIN WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
SOME THUNDER...AND FAVOR THE GFS AND EC OVER THE NAM ON THIS WITH
THE NAM LOOKING TOO SLOW ON DEVELOPING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHOWER CHANCE LATE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 60S SOUTHWEST UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

ONE THING LOOKS CLEAR CUT FROM ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...ACTUALLY CALL
IT CLOUDY CUT...AND THAT IS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE SUN THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH A LOT OF 60S TO LOW 70S HIGHS AND 50S LOWS.

FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAVES FROM A
DECAYING MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE PICTURE. AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD DRY
SOME...SUNSHINE SHOULD PARTIALLY RETURN...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARM SOME...LIKE INTO THE 70S. THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN...BUT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
LOON IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...SO THERE WILL BE NO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 211711
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1211 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY NICE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TIGHTER
GRADIENT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PREVALENT MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DECREASING WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT
DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD IN AS MAIN WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
SOME THUNDER...AND FAVOR THE GFS AND EC OVER THE NAM ON THIS WITH
THE NAM LOOKING TOO SLOW ON DEVELOPING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHOWER CHANCE LATE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 60S SOUTHWEST UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

ONE THING LOOKS CLEAR CUT FROM ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...ACTUALLY CALL
IT CLOUDY CUT...AND THAT IS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE SUN THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH A LOT OF 60S TO LOW 70S HIGHS AND 50S LOWS.

FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAVES FROM A
DECAYING MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE PICTURE. AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD DRY
SOME...SUNSHINE SHOULD PARTIALLY RETURN...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARM SOME...LIKE INTO THE 70S. THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN...BUT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
LOON IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...SO THERE WILL BE NO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 211711
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1211 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY NICE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TIGHTER
GRADIENT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PREVALENT MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DECREASING WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT
DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD IN AS MAIN WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
SOME THUNDER...AND FAVOR THE GFS AND EC OVER THE NAM ON THIS WITH
THE NAM LOOKING TOO SLOW ON DEVELOPING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHOWER CHANCE LATE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 60S SOUTHWEST UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

ONE THING LOOKS CLEAR CUT FROM ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...ACTUALLY CALL
IT CLOUDY CUT...AND THAT IS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE SUN THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH A LOT OF 60S TO LOW 70S HIGHS AND 50S LOWS.

FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAVES FROM A
DECAYING MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE PICTURE. AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD DRY
SOME...SUNSHINE SHOULD PARTIALLY RETURN...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARM SOME...LIKE INTO THE 70S. THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN...BUT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
LOON IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...SO THERE WILL BE NO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 211711
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1211 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY NICE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TIGHTER
GRADIENT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PREVALENT MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DECREASING WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT
DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD IN AS MAIN WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
SOME THUNDER...AND FAVOR THE GFS AND EC OVER THE NAM ON THIS WITH
THE NAM LOOKING TOO SLOW ON DEVELOPING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHOWER CHANCE LATE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 60S SOUTHWEST UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

ONE THING LOOKS CLEAR CUT FROM ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...ACTUALLY CALL
IT CLOUDY CUT...AND THAT IS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE SUN THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH A LOT OF 60S TO LOW 70S HIGHS AND 50S LOWS.

FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAVES FROM A
DECAYING MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE PICTURE. AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD DRY
SOME...SUNSHINE SHOULD PARTIALLY RETURN...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARM SOME...LIKE INTO THE 70S. THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN...BUT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
LOON IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...SO THERE WILL BE NO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 211711
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1211 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY NICE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TIGHTER
GRADIENT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PREVALENT MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DECREASING WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT
DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD IN AS MAIN WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
SOME THUNDER...AND FAVOR THE GFS AND EC OVER THE NAM ON THIS WITH
THE NAM LOOKING TOO SLOW ON DEVELOPING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHOWER CHANCE LATE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 60S SOUTHWEST UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

ONE THING LOOKS CLEAR CUT FROM ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...ACTUALLY CALL
IT CLOUDY CUT...AND THAT IS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE SUN THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH A LOT OF 60S TO LOW 70S HIGHS AND 50S LOWS.

FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAVES FROM A
DECAYING MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE PICTURE. AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD DRY
SOME...SUNSHINE SHOULD PARTIALLY RETURN...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARM SOME...LIKE INTO THE 70S. THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN...BUT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
LOON IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...SO THERE WILL BE NO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 211711
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1211 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY NICE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TIGHTER
GRADIENT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PREVALENT MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DECREASING WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT
DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD IN AS MAIN WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
SOME THUNDER...AND FAVOR THE GFS AND EC OVER THE NAM ON THIS WITH
THE NAM LOOKING TOO SLOW ON DEVELOPING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHOWER CHANCE LATE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 60S SOUTHWEST UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

ONE THING LOOKS CLEAR CUT FROM ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...ACTUALLY CALL
IT CLOUDY CUT...AND THAT IS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE SUN THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH A LOT OF 60S TO LOW 70S HIGHS AND 50S LOWS.

FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAVES FROM A
DECAYING MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE PICTURE. AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD DRY
SOME...SUNSHINE SHOULD PARTIALLY RETURN...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARM SOME...LIKE INTO THE 70S. THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN...BUT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
LOON IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...SO THERE WILL BE NO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KUNR 211554
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
954 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PUSHED AN AREA OF
LOW STRATUS INTO PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO INCREASED MIXING
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES
PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN EXISTS WITH A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE
COVERING WRN CANADA BUT WITH A TROUGH UNDERCUTTING IT OVER THE
SWRN CONUS. A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MEAN
TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM. THE RESULT OVER THE BLKHLS AREA WAS CON-
FLUENT UPPER FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
THE SWRN CWA...AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER WRN NEB THAT WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS OVER SWRN SD/NERN WY. THE INTERPLAY
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOWS OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND HUDSON BAY WILL BE
THE LARGE-SCALE DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY.

FOR TODAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH RETURN SOUTHEAST SFC
FLOW DEVELOPING. 850-MB TEMPS WILL RISE 4-6C AND WILL HELP TEMPS
RISE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR A CHANGE. THE CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL KEEP FAIR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT
FOR THE SWRN THIRD OR SO. FOR TNGT...SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW CONTINUES
WITH A 1O-KT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS CO TO NEAR KDEN BY 12Z THU.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL FROST.

FOR FRIDAY...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NEB PANHANDLE...BEING SLOWED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE. A
NARROW ZONE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SRN CWA...AND THIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH AGAINST THE DRY
AIR AND DEFORMATION ZONE. CAPE AND INSTABILITY PROGS ARE QUITE
MEAGER...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON THE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
CWA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT LOW-LEVELS IS NOTED...BUT THE WAVE
WILL ENCOUNTER DRY AIR TO THE NORTH...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CAPE ALSO IS MINIMAL...THUS HAVE CUT
BACK ON COVERAGE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE
VARIOUS MODELS STILL DIFFER ON SPECIFICS SUCH AS TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF BEST PCPN CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAJORITY OF 00Z
MODELS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS
FOR ANY HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
ANY STRONGER STORMS TO MOSTLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS...AND ESPECIALLY OVER NEB...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES THERE IN THE EVENING. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOKS MORE LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO ANY THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...THE BETTER COVERAGE FOR RAINFALL WOULD MOST
LIKELY SHIFT TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WEAKER DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND...
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS EARLY
THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST WY
AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.



&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS63 KUNR 211554
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
954 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PUSHED AN AREA OF
LOW STRATUS INTO PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO INCREASED MIXING
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES
PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN EXISTS WITH A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE
COVERING WRN CANADA BUT WITH A TROUGH UNDERCUTTING IT OVER THE
SWRN CONUS. A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MEAN
TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM. THE RESULT OVER THE BLKHLS AREA WAS CON-
FLUENT UPPER FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
THE SWRN CWA...AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER WRN NEB THAT WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS OVER SWRN SD/NERN WY. THE INTERPLAY
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOWS OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND HUDSON BAY WILL BE
THE LARGE-SCALE DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY.

FOR TODAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH RETURN SOUTHEAST SFC
FLOW DEVELOPING. 850-MB TEMPS WILL RISE 4-6C AND WILL HELP TEMPS
RISE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR A CHANGE. THE CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL KEEP FAIR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT
FOR THE SWRN THIRD OR SO. FOR TNGT...SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW CONTINUES
WITH A 1O-KT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS CO TO NEAR KDEN BY 12Z THU.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL FROST.

FOR FRIDAY...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NEB PANHANDLE...BEING SLOWED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE. A
NARROW ZONE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SRN CWA...AND THIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH AGAINST THE DRY
AIR AND DEFORMATION ZONE. CAPE AND INSTABILITY PROGS ARE QUITE
MEAGER...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON THE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
CWA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT LOW-LEVELS IS NOTED...BUT THE WAVE
WILL ENCOUNTER DRY AIR TO THE NORTH...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CAPE ALSO IS MINIMAL...THUS HAVE CUT
BACK ON COVERAGE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE
VARIOUS MODELS STILL DIFFER ON SPECIFICS SUCH AS TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF BEST PCPN CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAJORITY OF 00Z
MODELS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS
FOR ANY HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
ANY STRONGER STORMS TO MOSTLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS...AND ESPECIALLY OVER NEB...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES THERE IN THE EVENING. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOKS MORE LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO ANY THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...THE BETTER COVERAGE FOR RAINFALL WOULD MOST
LIKELY SHIFT TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WEAKER DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND...
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS EARLY
THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST WY
AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.



&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KABR 211533 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1033 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SUNNY SKIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO REMAIN
IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE TROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO SEEING SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THE WINDS HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED...AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION /50S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREA/.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER HOWEVER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS RETURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME GUSTY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK
RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WELL DEFINED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS
FEATURE DOWN...SO TRENDED SLOWER WITH POPS. THE MAIN UPPER LOW THEN
MOVES EAST WITH STRONGER FORCING SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST A WELL SATURATED
COLUMN...SO FORECAST POPS INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE SATURDAY TIME
PERIOD. OVERALL IT LOOKS PRETTY STABLE...SO GENERAL THUNDER IS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS OF GREATER BULK SHEAR SO CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MORE WET THAN DRY. PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AS THE LOW MEANDERS ITS WAY SLOWLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY. MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KABR 211533 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1033 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SUNNY SKIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO REMAIN
IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE TROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO SEEING SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THE WINDS HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED...AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION /50S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREA/.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER HOWEVER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS RETURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME GUSTY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK
RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WELL DEFINED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS
FEATURE DOWN...SO TRENDED SLOWER WITH POPS. THE MAIN UPPER LOW THEN
MOVES EAST WITH STRONGER FORCING SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST A WELL SATURATED
COLUMN...SO FORECAST POPS INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE SATURDAY TIME
PERIOD. OVERALL IT LOOKS PRETTY STABLE...SO GENERAL THUNDER IS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS OF GREATER BULK SHEAR SO CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MORE WET THAN DRY. PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AS THE LOW MEANDERS ITS WAY SLOWLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY. MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 211126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO REMAIN
IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE TROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO SEEING SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THE WINDS HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED...AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION /50S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREA/.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER HOWEVER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS RETURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME GUSTY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK
RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WELL DEFINED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS
FEATURE DOWN...SO TRENDED SLOWER WITH POPS. THE MAIN UPPER LOW THEN
MOVES EAST WITH STRONGER FORCING SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST A WELL SATURATED
COLUMN...SO FORECAST POPS INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE SATURDAY TIME
PERIOD. OVERALL IT LOOKS PRETTY STABLE...SO GENERAL THUNDER IS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS OF GREATER BULK SHEAR SO CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MORE WET THAN DRY. PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AS THE LOW MEANDERS ITS WAY SLOWLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY. MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 211126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO REMAIN
IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE TROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO SEEING SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THE WINDS HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED...AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION /50S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREA/.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER HOWEVER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS RETURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME GUSTY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK
RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WELL DEFINED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS
FEATURE DOWN...SO TRENDED SLOWER WITH POPS. THE MAIN UPPER LOW THEN
MOVES EAST WITH STRONGER FORCING SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST A WELL SATURATED
COLUMN...SO FORECAST POPS INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE SATURDAY TIME
PERIOD. OVERALL IT LOOKS PRETTY STABLE...SO GENERAL THUNDER IS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS OF GREATER BULK SHEAR SO CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MORE WET THAN DRY. PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AS THE LOW MEANDERS ITS WAY SLOWLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY. MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 211126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO REMAIN
IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE TROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO SEEING SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THE WINDS HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED...AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION /50S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREA/.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER HOWEVER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS RETURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME GUSTY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK
RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WELL DEFINED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS
FEATURE DOWN...SO TRENDED SLOWER WITH POPS. THE MAIN UPPER LOW THEN
MOVES EAST WITH STRONGER FORCING SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST A WELL SATURATED
COLUMN...SO FORECAST POPS INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE SATURDAY TIME
PERIOD. OVERALL IT LOOKS PRETTY STABLE...SO GENERAL THUNDER IS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS OF GREATER BULK SHEAR SO CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MORE WET THAN DRY. PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AS THE LOW MEANDERS ITS WAY SLOWLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY. MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 211126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO REMAIN
IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE TROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO SEEING SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THE WINDS HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED...AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION /50S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREA/.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER HOWEVER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS RETURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME GUSTY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK
RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WELL DEFINED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS
FEATURE DOWN...SO TRENDED SLOWER WITH POPS. THE MAIN UPPER LOW THEN
MOVES EAST WITH STRONGER FORCING SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST A WELL SATURATED
COLUMN...SO FORECAST POPS INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE SATURDAY TIME
PERIOD. OVERALL IT LOOKS PRETTY STABLE...SO GENERAL THUNDER IS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS OF GREATER BULK SHEAR SO CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MORE WET THAN DRY. PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AS THE LOW MEANDERS ITS WAY SLOWLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY. MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KUNR 211125
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
525 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN EXISTS WITH A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE
COVERING WRN CANADA BUT WITH A TROUGH UNDERCUTTING IT OVER THE
SWRN CONUS. A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MEAN
TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM. THE RESULT OVER THE BLKHLS AREA WAS CON-
FLUENT UPPER FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
THE SWRN CWA...AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER WRN NEB THAT WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS OVER SWRN SD/NERN WY. THE INTERPLAY
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOWS OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND HUDSON BAY WILL BE
THE LARGE-SCALE DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY.

FOR TODAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH RETURN SOUTHEAST SFC
FLOW DEVELOPING. 850-MB TEMPS WILL RISE 4-6C AND WILL HELP TEMPS
RISE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR A CHANGE. THE CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL KEEP FAIR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT
FOR THE SWRN THIRD OR SO. FOR TNGT...SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW CONTINUES
WITH A 1O-KT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS CO TO NEAR KDEN BY 12Z THU.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL FROST.

FOR FRIDAY...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NEB PANHANDLE...BEING SLOWED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE. A
NARROW ZONE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SRN CWA...AND THIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH AGAINST THE DRY
AIR AND DEFORMATION ZONE. CAPE AND INSTABILITY PROGS ARE QUITE
MEAGER...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON THE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
CWA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT LOW-LEVELS IS NOTED...BUT THE WAVE
WILL ENCOUNTER DRY AIR TO THE NORTH...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CAPE ALSO IS MINIMAL...THUS HAVE CUT
BACK ON COVERAGE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE
VARIOUS MODELS STILL DIFFER ON SPECIFICS SUCH AS TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF BEST PCPN CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAJORITY OF 00Z
MODELS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS
FOR ANY HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
ANY STRONGER STORMS TO MOSTLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS...AND ESPECIALLY OVER NEB...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES THERE IN THE EVENING. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOKS MORE LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO ANY THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...THE BETTER COVERAGE FOR RAINFALL WOULD MOST
LIKELY SHIFT TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WEAKER DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND...
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS EARLY
THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST WY
AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR SDZ012-
     025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-072>074.

WY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ054>056-058-
     071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 211125
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
525 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN EXISTS WITH A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE
COVERING WRN CANADA BUT WITH A TROUGH UNDERCUTTING IT OVER THE
SWRN CONUS. A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MEAN
TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM. THE RESULT OVER THE BLKHLS AREA WAS CON-
FLUENT UPPER FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
THE SWRN CWA...AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER WRN NEB THAT WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS OVER SWRN SD/NERN WY. THE INTERPLAY
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOWS OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND HUDSON BAY WILL BE
THE LARGE-SCALE DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY.

FOR TODAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH RETURN SOUTHEAST SFC
FLOW DEVELOPING. 850-MB TEMPS WILL RISE 4-6C AND WILL HELP TEMPS
RISE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR A CHANGE. THE CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL KEEP FAIR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT
FOR THE SWRN THIRD OR SO. FOR TNGT...SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW CONTINUES
WITH A 1O-KT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS CO TO NEAR KDEN BY 12Z THU.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL FROST.

FOR FRIDAY...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NEB PANHANDLE...BEING SLOWED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE. A
NARROW ZONE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SRN CWA...AND THIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH AGAINST THE DRY
AIR AND DEFORMATION ZONE. CAPE AND INSTABILITY PROGS ARE QUITE
MEAGER...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON THE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
CWA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT LOW-LEVELS IS NOTED...BUT THE WAVE
WILL ENCOUNTER DRY AIR TO THE NORTH...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CAPE ALSO IS MINIMAL...THUS HAVE CUT
BACK ON COVERAGE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE
VARIOUS MODELS STILL DIFFER ON SPECIFICS SUCH AS TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF BEST PCPN CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAJORITY OF 00Z
MODELS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS
FOR ANY HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
ANY STRONGER STORMS TO MOSTLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS...AND ESPECIALLY OVER NEB...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES THERE IN THE EVENING. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOKS MORE LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO ANY THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...THE BETTER COVERAGE FOR RAINFALL WOULD MOST
LIKELY SHIFT TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WEAKER DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND...
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS EARLY
THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST WY
AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR SDZ012-
     025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-072>074.

WY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ054>056-058-
     071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS63 KUNR 211125
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
525 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN EXISTS WITH A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE
COVERING WRN CANADA BUT WITH A TROUGH UNDERCUTTING IT OVER THE
SWRN CONUS. A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MEAN
TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM. THE RESULT OVER THE BLKHLS AREA WAS CON-
FLUENT UPPER FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
THE SWRN CWA...AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER WRN NEB THAT WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS OVER SWRN SD/NERN WY. THE INTERPLAY
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOWS OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND HUDSON BAY WILL BE
THE LARGE-SCALE DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY.

FOR TODAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH RETURN SOUTHEAST SFC
FLOW DEVELOPING. 850-MB TEMPS WILL RISE 4-6C AND WILL HELP TEMPS
RISE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR A CHANGE. THE CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL KEEP FAIR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT
FOR THE SWRN THIRD OR SO. FOR TNGT...SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW CONTINUES
WITH A 1O-KT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS CO TO NEAR KDEN BY 12Z THU.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL FROST.

FOR FRIDAY...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NEB PANHANDLE...BEING SLOWED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE. A
NARROW ZONE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SRN CWA...AND THIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH AGAINST THE DRY
AIR AND DEFORMATION ZONE. CAPE AND INSTABILITY PROGS ARE QUITE
MEAGER...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON THE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
CWA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT LOW-LEVELS IS NOTED...BUT THE WAVE
WILL ENCOUNTER DRY AIR TO THE NORTH...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CAPE ALSO IS MINIMAL...THUS HAVE CUT
BACK ON COVERAGE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE
VARIOUS MODELS STILL DIFFER ON SPECIFICS SUCH AS TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF BEST PCPN CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAJORITY OF 00Z
MODELS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS
FOR ANY HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
ANY STRONGER STORMS TO MOSTLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS...AND ESPECIALLY OVER NEB...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES THERE IN THE EVENING. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOKS MORE LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO ANY THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...THE BETTER COVERAGE FOR RAINFALL WOULD MOST
LIKELY SHIFT TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WEAKER DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND...
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS EARLY
THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST WY
AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR SDZ012-
     025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-072>074.

WY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ054>056-058-
     071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS63 KUNR 211125
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
525 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN EXISTS WITH A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE
COVERING WRN CANADA BUT WITH A TROUGH UNDERCUTTING IT OVER THE
SWRN CONUS. A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MEAN
TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM. THE RESULT OVER THE BLKHLS AREA WAS CON-
FLUENT UPPER FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
THE SWRN CWA...AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER WRN NEB THAT WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS OVER SWRN SD/NERN WY. THE INTERPLAY
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOWS OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND HUDSON BAY WILL BE
THE LARGE-SCALE DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY.

FOR TODAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH RETURN SOUTHEAST SFC
FLOW DEVELOPING. 850-MB TEMPS WILL RISE 4-6C AND WILL HELP TEMPS
RISE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR A CHANGE. THE CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL KEEP FAIR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT
FOR THE SWRN THIRD OR SO. FOR TNGT...SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW CONTINUES
WITH A 1O-KT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS CO TO NEAR KDEN BY 12Z THU.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL FROST.

FOR FRIDAY...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NEB PANHANDLE...BEING SLOWED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE. A
NARROW ZONE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SRN CWA...AND THIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH AGAINST THE DRY
AIR AND DEFORMATION ZONE. CAPE AND INSTABILITY PROGS ARE QUITE
MEAGER...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON THE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
CWA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT LOW-LEVELS IS NOTED...BUT THE WAVE
WILL ENCOUNTER DRY AIR TO THE NORTH...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CAPE ALSO IS MINIMAL...THUS HAVE CUT
BACK ON COVERAGE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE
VARIOUS MODELS STILL DIFFER ON SPECIFICS SUCH AS TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF BEST PCPN CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAJORITY OF 00Z
MODELS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS
FOR ANY HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
ANY STRONGER STORMS TO MOSTLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS...AND ESPECIALLY OVER NEB...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES THERE IN THE EVENING. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOKS MORE LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO ANY THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...THE BETTER COVERAGE FOR RAINFALL WOULD MOST
LIKELY SHIFT TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WEAKER DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND...
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS EARLY
THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST WY
AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR SDZ012-
     025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-072>074.

WY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ054>056-058-
     071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KFSD 211124
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY NICE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TIGHTER
GRADIENT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PREVALENT MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DECREASING WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT
DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD IN AS MAIN WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
SOME THUNDER...AND FAVOR THE GFS AND EC OVER THE NAM ON THIS WITH
THE NAM LOOKING TOO SLOW ON DEVELOPING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHOWER CHANCE LATE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 60S SOUTHWEST UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

ONE THING LOOKS CLEAR CUT FROM ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...ACTUALLY CALL
IT CLOUDY CUT...AND THAT IS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE SUN THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH A LOT OF 60S TO LOW 70S HIGHS AND 50S LOWS.

FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAVES FROM A
DECAYING MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE PICTURE. AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD DRY
SOME...SUNSHINE SHOULD PARTIALLY RETURN...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARM SOME...LIKE INTO THE 70S. THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN...BUT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
LOON IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...SO THERE WILL BE NO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS NEARING 25KT AT TIMES EAST OF KHON-KMHE-KSUX LINE IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT KFSD TAF LOCATION COULD ALSO SEE
OCCASIONAL 20-25KT GUSTS 16Z-22Z TODAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 211124
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY NICE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TIGHTER
GRADIENT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PREVALENT MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DECREASING WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT
DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD IN AS MAIN WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
SOME THUNDER...AND FAVOR THE GFS AND EC OVER THE NAM ON THIS WITH
THE NAM LOOKING TOO SLOW ON DEVELOPING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHOWER CHANCE LATE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 60S SOUTHWEST UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

ONE THING LOOKS CLEAR CUT FROM ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...ACTUALLY CALL
IT CLOUDY CUT...AND THAT IS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE SUN THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH A LOT OF 60S TO LOW 70S HIGHS AND 50S LOWS.

FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAVES FROM A
DECAYING MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE PICTURE. AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD DRY
SOME...SUNSHINE SHOULD PARTIALLY RETURN...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARM SOME...LIKE INTO THE 70S. THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN...BUT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
LOON IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...SO THERE WILL BE NO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS NEARING 25KT AT TIMES EAST OF KHON-KMHE-KSUX LINE IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT KFSD TAF LOCATION COULD ALSO SEE
OCCASIONAL 20-25KT GUSTS 16Z-22Z TODAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 211124
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY NICE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TIGHTER
GRADIENT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PREVALENT MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DECREASING WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT
DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD IN AS MAIN WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
SOME THUNDER...AND FAVOR THE GFS AND EC OVER THE NAM ON THIS WITH
THE NAM LOOKING TOO SLOW ON DEVELOPING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHOWER CHANCE LATE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 60S SOUTHWEST UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

ONE THING LOOKS CLEAR CUT FROM ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...ACTUALLY CALL
IT CLOUDY CUT...AND THAT IS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE SUN THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH A LOT OF 60S TO LOW 70S HIGHS AND 50S LOWS.

FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAVES FROM A
DECAYING MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE PICTURE. AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD DRY
SOME...SUNSHINE SHOULD PARTIALLY RETURN...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARM SOME...LIKE INTO THE 70S. THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN...BUT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
LOON IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...SO THERE WILL BE NO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS NEARING 25KT AT TIMES EAST OF KHON-KMHE-KSUX LINE IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT KFSD TAF LOCATION COULD ALSO SEE
OCCASIONAL 20-25KT GUSTS 16Z-22Z TODAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 211124
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY NICE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TIGHTER
GRADIENT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PREVALENT MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DECREASING WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT
DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD IN AS MAIN WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
SOME THUNDER...AND FAVOR THE GFS AND EC OVER THE NAM ON THIS WITH
THE NAM LOOKING TOO SLOW ON DEVELOPING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHOWER CHANCE LATE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 60S SOUTHWEST UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

ONE THING LOOKS CLEAR CUT FROM ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...ACTUALLY CALL
IT CLOUDY CUT...AND THAT IS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE SUN THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH A LOT OF 60S TO LOW 70S HIGHS AND 50S LOWS.

FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAVES FROM A
DECAYING MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE PICTURE. AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD DRY
SOME...SUNSHINE SHOULD PARTIALLY RETURN...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARM SOME...LIKE INTO THE 70S. THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN...BUT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
LOON IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...SO THERE WILL BE NO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS NEARING 25KT AT TIMES EAST OF KHON-KMHE-KSUX LINE IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT KFSD TAF LOCATION COULD ALSO SEE
OCCASIONAL 20-25KT GUSTS 16Z-22Z TODAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 211124
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY NICE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TIGHTER
GRADIENT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PREVALENT MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DECREASING WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT
DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD IN AS MAIN WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
SOME THUNDER...AND FAVOR THE GFS AND EC OVER THE NAM ON THIS WITH
THE NAM LOOKING TOO SLOW ON DEVELOPING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHOWER CHANCE LATE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 60S SOUTHWEST UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

ONE THING LOOKS CLEAR CUT FROM ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...ACTUALLY CALL
IT CLOUDY CUT...AND THAT IS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE SUN THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH A LOT OF 60S TO LOW 70S HIGHS AND 50S LOWS.

FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAVES FROM A
DECAYING MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE PICTURE. AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD DRY
SOME...SUNSHINE SHOULD PARTIALLY RETURN...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARM SOME...LIKE INTO THE 70S. THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN...BUT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
LOON IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...SO THERE WILL BE NO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS NEARING 25KT AT TIMES EAST OF KHON-KMHE-KSUX LINE IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT KFSD TAF LOCATION COULD ALSO SEE
OCCASIONAL 20-25KT GUSTS 16Z-22Z TODAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 211124
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY NICE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TIGHTER
GRADIENT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PREVALENT MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DECREASING WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT
DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD IN AS MAIN WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
SOME THUNDER...AND FAVOR THE GFS AND EC OVER THE NAM ON THIS WITH
THE NAM LOOKING TOO SLOW ON DEVELOPING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHOWER CHANCE LATE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 60S SOUTHWEST UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

ONE THING LOOKS CLEAR CUT FROM ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...ACTUALLY CALL
IT CLOUDY CUT...AND THAT IS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE SUN THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH A LOT OF 60S TO LOW 70S HIGHS AND 50S LOWS.

FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAVES FROM A
DECAYING MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE PICTURE. AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD DRY
SOME...SUNSHINE SHOULD PARTIALLY RETURN...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARM SOME...LIKE INTO THE 70S. THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN...BUT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
LOON IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...SO THERE WILL BE NO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS NEARING 25KT AT TIMES EAST OF KHON-KMHE-KSUX LINE IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT KFSD TAF LOCATION COULD ALSO SEE
OCCASIONAL 20-25KT GUSTS 16Z-22Z TODAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KUNR 210904
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
304 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN EXISTS WITH A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE
COVERING WRN CANADA BUT WITH A TROUGH UNDERCUTTING IT OVER THE
SWRN CONUS. A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MEAN
TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM. THE RESULT OVER THE BLKHLS AREA WAS CON-
FLUENT UPPER FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
THE SWRN CWA...AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER WRN NEB THAT WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS OVER SWRN SD/NERN WY. THE INTERPLAY
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOWS OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND HUDSON BAY WILL BE
THE LARGE-SCALE DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY.

FOR TODAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH RETURN SOUTHEAST SFC
FLOW DEVELOPING. 850-MB TEMPS WILL RISE 4-6C AND WILL HELP TEMPS
RISE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR A CHANGE. THE CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL KEEP FAIR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT
FOR THE SWRN THIRD OR SO. FOR TNGT...SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW CONTINUES
WITH A 1O-KT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS CO TO NEAR KDEN BY 12Z THU.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL FROST.

FOR FRIDAY...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NEB PANHANDLE...BEING SLOWED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE. A
NARROW ZONE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SRN CWA...AND THIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH AGAINST THE DRY
AIR AND DEFORMATION ZONE. CAPE AND INSTABILITY PROGS ARE QUITE
MEAGER...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON THE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
CWA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT LOW-LEVELS IS NOTED...BUT THE WAVE
WILL ENCOUNTER DRY AIR TO THE NORTH...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CAPE ALSO IS MINIMAL...THUS HAVE CUT
BACK ON COVERAGE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE
VARIOUS MODELS STILL DIFFER ON SPECIFICS SUCH AS TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF BEST PCPN CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAJORITY OF 00Z
MODELS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS
FOR ANY HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
ANY STRONGER STORMS TO MOSTLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS...AND ESPECIALLY OVER NEB...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES THERE IN THE EVENING. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOKS MORE LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO ANY THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...THE BETTER COVERAGE FOR RAINFALL WOULD MOST
LIKELY SHIFT TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WEAKER DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND...
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR SDZ012-
     025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-072>074.

WY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ054>056-058-
     071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS63 KUNR 210904
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
304 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN EXISTS WITH A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE
COVERING WRN CANADA BUT WITH A TROUGH UNDERCUTTING IT OVER THE
SWRN CONUS. A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MEAN
TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM. THE RESULT OVER THE BLKHLS AREA WAS CON-
FLUENT UPPER FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
THE SWRN CWA...AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER WRN NEB THAT WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS OVER SWRN SD/NERN WY. THE INTERPLAY
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOWS OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND HUDSON BAY WILL BE
THE LARGE-SCALE DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY.

FOR TODAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH RETURN SOUTHEAST SFC
FLOW DEVELOPING. 850-MB TEMPS WILL RISE 4-6C AND WILL HELP TEMPS
RISE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR A CHANGE. THE CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL KEEP FAIR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT
FOR THE SWRN THIRD OR SO. FOR TNGT...SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW CONTINUES
WITH A 1O-KT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS CO TO NEAR KDEN BY 12Z THU.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL FROST.

FOR FRIDAY...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NEB PANHANDLE...BEING SLOWED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE. A
NARROW ZONE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SRN CWA...AND THIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH AGAINST THE DRY
AIR AND DEFORMATION ZONE. CAPE AND INSTABILITY PROGS ARE QUITE
MEAGER...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON THE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
CWA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT LOW-LEVELS IS NOTED...BUT THE WAVE
WILL ENCOUNTER DRY AIR TO THE NORTH...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CAPE ALSO IS MINIMAL...THUS HAVE CUT
BACK ON COVERAGE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE
VARIOUS MODELS STILL DIFFER ON SPECIFICS SUCH AS TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF BEST PCPN CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAJORITY OF 00Z
MODELS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS
FOR ANY HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
ANY STRONGER STORMS TO MOSTLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS...AND ESPECIALLY OVER NEB...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES THERE IN THE EVENING. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOKS MORE LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO ANY THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...THE BETTER COVERAGE FOR RAINFALL WOULD MOST
LIKELY SHIFT TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WEAKER DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND...
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR SDZ012-
     025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-072>074.

WY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ054>056-058-
     071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 210904
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
304 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN EXISTS WITH A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE
COVERING WRN CANADA BUT WITH A TROUGH UNDERCUTTING IT OVER THE
SWRN CONUS. A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MEAN
TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM. THE RESULT OVER THE BLKHLS AREA WAS CON-
FLUENT UPPER FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
THE SWRN CWA...AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER WRN NEB THAT WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS OVER SWRN SD/NERN WY. THE INTERPLAY
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOWS OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND HUDSON BAY WILL BE
THE LARGE-SCALE DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY.

FOR TODAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH RETURN SOUTHEAST SFC
FLOW DEVELOPING. 850-MB TEMPS WILL RISE 4-6C AND WILL HELP TEMPS
RISE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR A CHANGE. THE CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL KEEP FAIR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT
FOR THE SWRN THIRD OR SO. FOR TNGT...SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW CONTINUES
WITH A 1O-KT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS CO TO NEAR KDEN BY 12Z THU.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL FROST.

FOR FRIDAY...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NEB PANHANDLE...BEING SLOWED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE. A
NARROW ZONE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SRN CWA...AND THIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH AGAINST THE DRY
AIR AND DEFORMATION ZONE. CAPE AND INSTABILITY PROGS ARE QUITE
MEAGER...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON THE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
CWA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT LOW-LEVELS IS NOTED...BUT THE WAVE
WILL ENCOUNTER DRY AIR TO THE NORTH...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CAPE ALSO IS MINIMAL...THUS HAVE CUT
BACK ON COVERAGE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE
VARIOUS MODELS STILL DIFFER ON SPECIFICS SUCH AS TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF BEST PCPN CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAJORITY OF 00Z
MODELS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS
FOR ANY HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
ANY STRONGER STORMS TO MOSTLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS...AND ESPECIALLY OVER NEB...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES THERE IN THE EVENING. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOKS MORE LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO ANY THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...THE BETTER COVERAGE FOR RAINFALL WOULD MOST
LIKELY SHIFT TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WEAKER DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND...
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR SDZ012-
     025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-072>074.

WY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ054>056-058-
     071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 210904
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
304 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN EXISTS WITH A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE
COVERING WRN CANADA BUT WITH A TROUGH UNDERCUTTING IT OVER THE
SWRN CONUS. A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MEAN
TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM. THE RESULT OVER THE BLKHLS AREA WAS CON-
FLUENT UPPER FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
THE SWRN CWA...AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER WRN NEB THAT WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS OVER SWRN SD/NERN WY. THE INTERPLAY
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOWS OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND HUDSON BAY WILL BE
THE LARGE-SCALE DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY.

FOR TODAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH RETURN SOUTHEAST SFC
FLOW DEVELOPING. 850-MB TEMPS WILL RISE 4-6C AND WILL HELP TEMPS
RISE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR A CHANGE. THE CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL KEEP FAIR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT
FOR THE SWRN THIRD OR SO. FOR TNGT...SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW CONTINUES
WITH A 1O-KT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS CO TO NEAR KDEN BY 12Z THU.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL FROST.

FOR FRIDAY...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NEB PANHANDLE...BEING SLOWED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE. A
NARROW ZONE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SRN CWA...AND THIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH AGAINST THE DRY
AIR AND DEFORMATION ZONE. CAPE AND INSTABILITY PROGS ARE QUITE
MEAGER...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON THE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
CWA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT LOW-LEVELS IS NOTED...BUT THE WAVE
WILL ENCOUNTER DRY AIR TO THE NORTH...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CAPE ALSO IS MINIMAL...THUS HAVE CUT
BACK ON COVERAGE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE
VARIOUS MODELS STILL DIFFER ON SPECIFICS SUCH AS TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF BEST PCPN CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAJORITY OF 00Z
MODELS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS
FOR ANY HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
ANY STRONGER STORMS TO MOSTLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS...AND ESPECIALLY OVER NEB...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES THERE IN THE EVENING. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOKS MORE LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO ANY THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...THE BETTER COVERAGE FOR RAINFALL WOULD MOST
LIKELY SHIFT TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WEAKER DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND...
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR SDZ012-
     025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-072>074.

WY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ054>056-058-
     071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 210904
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
304 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN EXISTS WITH A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE
COVERING WRN CANADA BUT WITH A TROUGH UNDERCUTTING IT OVER THE
SWRN CONUS. A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MEAN
TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM. THE RESULT OVER THE BLKHLS AREA WAS CON-
FLUENT UPPER FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
THE SWRN CWA...AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER WRN NEB THAT WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS OVER SWRN SD/NERN WY. THE INTERPLAY
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOWS OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND HUDSON BAY WILL BE
THE LARGE-SCALE DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY.

FOR TODAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH RETURN SOUTHEAST SFC
FLOW DEVELOPING. 850-MB TEMPS WILL RISE 4-6C AND WILL HELP TEMPS
RISE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR A CHANGE. THE CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL KEEP FAIR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT
FOR THE SWRN THIRD OR SO. FOR TNGT...SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW CONTINUES
WITH A 1O-KT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS CO TO NEAR KDEN BY 12Z THU.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL FROST.

FOR FRIDAY...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NEB PANHANDLE...BEING SLOWED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE. A
NARROW ZONE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SRN CWA...AND THIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH AGAINST THE DRY
AIR AND DEFORMATION ZONE. CAPE AND INSTABILITY PROGS ARE QUITE
MEAGER...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON THE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
CWA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT LOW-LEVELS IS NOTED...BUT THE WAVE
WILL ENCOUNTER DRY AIR TO THE NORTH...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CAPE ALSO IS MINIMAL...THUS HAVE CUT
BACK ON COVERAGE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE
VARIOUS MODELS STILL DIFFER ON SPECIFICS SUCH AS TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF BEST PCPN CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAJORITY OF 00Z
MODELS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS
FOR ANY HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
ANY STRONGER STORMS TO MOSTLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS...AND ESPECIALLY OVER NEB...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES THERE IN THE EVENING. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOKS MORE LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO ANY THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...THE BETTER COVERAGE FOR RAINFALL WOULD MOST
LIKELY SHIFT TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WEAKER DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND...
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR SDZ012-
     025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-072>074.

WY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ054>056-058-
     071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 210904
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
304 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN EXISTS WITH A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE
COVERING WRN CANADA BUT WITH A TROUGH UNDERCUTTING IT OVER THE
SWRN CONUS. A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MEAN
TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM. THE RESULT OVER THE BLKHLS AREA WAS CON-
FLUENT UPPER FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
THE SWRN CWA...AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER WRN NEB THAT WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS OVER SWRN SD/NERN WY. THE INTERPLAY
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOWS OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND HUDSON BAY WILL BE
THE LARGE-SCALE DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY.

FOR TODAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH RETURN SOUTHEAST SFC
FLOW DEVELOPING. 850-MB TEMPS WILL RISE 4-6C AND WILL HELP TEMPS
RISE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR A CHANGE. THE CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL KEEP FAIR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT
FOR THE SWRN THIRD OR SO. FOR TNGT...SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW CONTINUES
WITH A 1O-KT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850-MB WINDS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS CO TO NEAR KDEN BY 12Z THU.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. 850-MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL FROST.

FOR FRIDAY...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NEB PANHANDLE...BEING SLOWED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE. A
NARROW ZONE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SRN CWA...AND THIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH AGAINST THE DRY
AIR AND DEFORMATION ZONE. CAPE AND INSTABILITY PROGS ARE QUITE
MEAGER...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON THE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
CWA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT LOW-LEVELS IS NOTED...BUT THE WAVE
WILL ENCOUNTER DRY AIR TO THE NORTH...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CAPE ALSO IS MINIMAL...THUS HAVE CUT
BACK ON COVERAGE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE
VARIOUS MODELS STILL DIFFER ON SPECIFICS SUCH AS TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF BEST PCPN CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAJORITY OF 00Z
MODELS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS
FOR ANY HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
ANY STRONGER STORMS TO MOSTLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS...AND ESPECIALLY OVER NEB...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES THERE IN THE EVENING. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOKS MORE LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO ANY THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...THE BETTER COVERAGE FOR RAINFALL WOULD MOST
LIKELY SHIFT TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WEAKER DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND...
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR SDZ012-
     025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-072>074.

WY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ054>056-058-
     071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KABR 210843
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
343 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO REMAIN
IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE TROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO SEEING SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THE WINDS HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED...AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION /50S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREA/.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER HOWEVER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS RETURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME GUSTY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK
RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WELL DEFINED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS
FEATURE DOWN...SO TRENDED SLOWER WITH POPS. THE MAIN UPPER LOW THEN
MOVES EAST WITH STRONGER FORCING SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST A WELL SATURATED
COLUMN...SO FORECAST POPS INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE SATURDAY TIME
PERIOD. OVERALL IT LOOKS PRETTY STABLE...SO GENERAL THUNDER IS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS OF GREATER BULK SHEAR SO CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MORE WET THAN DRY. PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AS THE LOW MEANDERS ITS WAY SLOWLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY. MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 210843
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
343 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO REMAIN
IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE TROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO SEEING SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THE WINDS HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED...AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION /50S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREA/.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER HOWEVER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS RETURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME GUSTY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK
RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WELL DEFINED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS
FEATURE DOWN...SO TRENDED SLOWER WITH POPS. THE MAIN UPPER LOW THEN
MOVES EAST WITH STRONGER FORCING SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST A WELL SATURATED
COLUMN...SO FORECAST POPS INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE SATURDAY TIME
PERIOD. OVERALL IT LOOKS PRETTY STABLE...SO GENERAL THUNDER IS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS OF GREATER BULK SHEAR SO CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MORE WET THAN DRY. PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AS THE LOW MEANDERS ITS WAY SLOWLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY. MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 210843
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
343 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO REMAIN
IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE TROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO SEEING SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THE WINDS HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED...AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION /50S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREA/.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER HOWEVER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS RETURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME GUSTY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK
RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WELL DEFINED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS
FEATURE DOWN...SO TRENDED SLOWER WITH POPS. THE MAIN UPPER LOW THEN
MOVES EAST WITH STRONGER FORCING SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST A WELL SATURATED
COLUMN...SO FORECAST POPS INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE SATURDAY TIME
PERIOD. OVERALL IT LOOKS PRETTY STABLE...SO GENERAL THUNDER IS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS OF GREATER BULK SHEAR SO CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MORE WET THAN DRY. PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AS THE LOW MEANDERS ITS WAY SLOWLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY. MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 210843
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
343 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO REMAIN
IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE TROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO SEEING SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THE WINDS HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED...AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION /50S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREA/.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER HOWEVER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS RETURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME GUSTY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK
RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WELL DEFINED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS
FEATURE DOWN...SO TRENDED SLOWER WITH POPS. THE MAIN UPPER LOW THEN
MOVES EAST WITH STRONGER FORCING SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST A WELL SATURATED
COLUMN...SO FORECAST POPS INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE SATURDAY TIME
PERIOD. OVERALL IT LOOKS PRETTY STABLE...SO GENERAL THUNDER IS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS OF GREATER BULK SHEAR SO CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MORE WET THAN DRY. PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AS THE LOW MEANDERS ITS WAY SLOWLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY. MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 210812
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY NICE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TIGHTER
GRADIENT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PREVALENT MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DECREASING WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT
DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD IN AS MAIN WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
SOME THUNDER...AND FAVOR THE GFS AND EC OVER THE NAM ON THIS WITH
THE NAM LOOKING TOO SLOW ON DEVELOPING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHOWER CHANCE LATE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 60S SOUTHWEST UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

ONE THING LOOKS CLEAR CUT FROM ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...ACTUALLY CALL
IT CLOUDY CUT...AND THAT IS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE SUN THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH A LOT OF 60S TO LOW 70S HIGHS AND 50S LOWS.

FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAVES FROM A
DECAYING MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE PICTURE. AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD DRY
SOME...SUNSHINE SHOULD PARTIALLY RETURN...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARM SOME...LIKE INTO THE 70S. THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN...BUT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
LOON IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...SO THERE WILL BE NO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION MENTION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY BY MID-
MORNING...TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KFSD 210812
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY NICE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TIGHTER
GRADIENT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PREVALENT MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DECREASING WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT
DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD IN AS MAIN WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
SOME THUNDER...AND FAVOR THE GFS AND EC OVER THE NAM ON THIS WITH
THE NAM LOOKING TOO SLOW ON DEVELOPING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHOWER CHANCE LATE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 60S SOUTHWEST UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

ONE THING LOOKS CLEAR CUT FROM ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...ACTUALLY CALL
IT CLOUDY CUT...AND THAT IS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE SUN THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH A LOT OF 60S TO LOW 70S HIGHS AND 50S LOWS.

FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAVES FROM A
DECAYING MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE PICTURE. AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD DRY
SOME...SUNSHINE SHOULD PARTIALLY RETURN...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARM SOME...LIKE INTO THE 70S. THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN...BUT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
LOON IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...SO THERE WILL BE NO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION MENTION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY BY MID-
MORNING...TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KABR 210528 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RATHER QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S. OVERALL AIR
MASS STAYS FAIRLY MILD ALOFT AND WINDS WILL ACTUALLY GO WESTERLY
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS IN THE 30S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
ALSO OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH. IF FACT...WILL BE BORDERLINE FROST CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA...BUT CURRENT MIN T GRID SHOWS ABOUT 36/37 DEGREES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. INSERTED PATCHY FROST FOR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE
OF THE CWA AND WILL BE UP AGAINST A FROST ADVISORY IN UNR CWA SO
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMP TRENDS TO SEE IF EXPANSION
INTO OUR CWA IS NEEDED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKING VERY PLEASANT AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. AIR MASS WARMS A BIT AT 925/850 MB SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO BE A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY. BUMPED UP HIGHS
A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST PLACES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED...TEMPS ALOFT...AND SEEING HOW TEMPS
TODAY MANAGED TO CLIMB.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THAT FIRST
SHOWS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LEFT IN SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING CHANCES CWA-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH...LOOKING AT THE
LATEST 12Z EC AND IT SHOWS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN QUITE A
BIT...WHICH IS TYPICAL AND USUALLY A TRUSTWORTHY OUTCOME MOST OF THE
TIME. EC SHOWS THINGS STAYING DRY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER ALL THE CWA. IF
OTHER MODELS LATCH ONTO THIS...THEN POPS CAN ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
REMOVED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAYBE EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT TOTALLY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO HAVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE MODELS ALL SHOW DIFFERENT TIMING WITH THE FIRST MAIN SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION. THE EC WAS THE SLOWEST AT BRINGING IN THE FIRST
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE EC DOES NOT BRING MUCH OF
ANY RAINFALL IN UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN AND GFS WERE
QUICKER AND BRING SOMETHING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALL SHOW A
DIFFERENT MOVEMENT AND RESULTANT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THUS...CONTINUED WITH GOOD POPS INTO MONDAY. MAY HAVE ONLY A SHORT
TIME PERIOD WHERE IT WILL BE DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 60S AND 70S FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
 LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 210528 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RATHER QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S. OVERALL AIR
MASS STAYS FAIRLY MILD ALOFT AND WINDS WILL ACTUALLY GO WESTERLY
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS IN THE 30S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
ALSO OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH. IF FACT...WILL BE BORDERLINE FROST CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA...BUT CURRENT MIN T GRID SHOWS ABOUT 36/37 DEGREES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. INSERTED PATCHY FROST FOR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE
OF THE CWA AND WILL BE UP AGAINST A FROST ADVISORY IN UNR CWA SO
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMP TRENDS TO SEE IF EXPANSION
INTO OUR CWA IS NEEDED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKING VERY PLEASANT AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. AIR MASS WARMS A BIT AT 925/850 MB SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO BE A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY. BUMPED UP HIGHS
A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST PLACES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED...TEMPS ALOFT...AND SEEING HOW TEMPS
TODAY MANAGED TO CLIMB.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THAT FIRST
SHOWS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LEFT IN SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING CHANCES CWA-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH...LOOKING AT THE
LATEST 12Z EC AND IT SHOWS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN QUITE A
BIT...WHICH IS TYPICAL AND USUALLY A TRUSTWORTHY OUTCOME MOST OF THE
TIME. EC SHOWS THINGS STAYING DRY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER ALL THE CWA. IF
OTHER MODELS LATCH ONTO THIS...THEN POPS CAN ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
REMOVED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAYBE EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT TOTALLY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO HAVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE MODELS ALL SHOW DIFFERENT TIMING WITH THE FIRST MAIN SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION. THE EC WAS THE SLOWEST AT BRINGING IN THE FIRST
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE EC DOES NOT BRING MUCH OF
ANY RAINFALL IN UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN AND GFS WERE
QUICKER AND BRING SOMETHING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALL SHOW A
DIFFERENT MOVEMENT AND RESULTANT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THUS...CONTINUED WITH GOOD POPS INTO MONDAY. MAY HAVE ONLY A SHORT
TIME PERIOD WHERE IT WILL BE DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 60S AND 70S FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
 LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KABR 210528 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RATHER QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S. OVERALL AIR
MASS STAYS FAIRLY MILD ALOFT AND WINDS WILL ACTUALLY GO WESTERLY
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS IN THE 30S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
ALSO OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH. IF FACT...WILL BE BORDERLINE FROST CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA...BUT CURRENT MIN T GRID SHOWS ABOUT 36/37 DEGREES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. INSERTED PATCHY FROST FOR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE
OF THE CWA AND WILL BE UP AGAINST A FROST ADVISORY IN UNR CWA SO
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMP TRENDS TO SEE IF EXPANSION
INTO OUR CWA IS NEEDED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKING VERY PLEASANT AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. AIR MASS WARMS A BIT AT 925/850 MB SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO BE A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY. BUMPED UP HIGHS
A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST PLACES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED...TEMPS ALOFT...AND SEEING HOW TEMPS
TODAY MANAGED TO CLIMB.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THAT FIRST
SHOWS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LEFT IN SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING CHANCES CWA-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH...LOOKING AT THE
LATEST 12Z EC AND IT SHOWS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN QUITE A
BIT...WHICH IS TYPICAL AND USUALLY A TRUSTWORTHY OUTCOME MOST OF THE
TIME. EC SHOWS THINGS STAYING DRY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER ALL THE CWA. IF
OTHER MODELS LATCH ONTO THIS...THEN POPS CAN ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
REMOVED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAYBE EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT TOTALLY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO HAVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE MODELS ALL SHOW DIFFERENT TIMING WITH THE FIRST MAIN SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION. THE EC WAS THE SLOWEST AT BRINGING IN THE FIRST
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE EC DOES NOT BRING MUCH OF
ANY RAINFALL IN UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN AND GFS WERE
QUICKER AND BRING SOMETHING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALL SHOW A
DIFFERENT MOVEMENT AND RESULTANT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THUS...CONTINUED WITH GOOD POPS INTO MONDAY. MAY HAVE ONLY A SHORT
TIME PERIOD WHERE IT WILL BE DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 60S AND 70S FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
 LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 210528 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RATHER QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S. OVERALL AIR
MASS STAYS FAIRLY MILD ALOFT AND WINDS WILL ACTUALLY GO WESTERLY
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS IN THE 30S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
ALSO OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH. IF FACT...WILL BE BORDERLINE FROST CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA...BUT CURRENT MIN T GRID SHOWS ABOUT 36/37 DEGREES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. INSERTED PATCHY FROST FOR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE
OF THE CWA AND WILL BE UP AGAINST A FROST ADVISORY IN UNR CWA SO
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMP TRENDS TO SEE IF EXPANSION
INTO OUR CWA IS NEEDED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKING VERY PLEASANT AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. AIR MASS WARMS A BIT AT 925/850 MB SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO BE A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY. BUMPED UP HIGHS
A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST PLACES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED...TEMPS ALOFT...AND SEEING HOW TEMPS
TODAY MANAGED TO CLIMB.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THAT FIRST
SHOWS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LEFT IN SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING CHANCES CWA-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH...LOOKING AT THE
LATEST 12Z EC AND IT SHOWS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN QUITE A
BIT...WHICH IS TYPICAL AND USUALLY A TRUSTWORTHY OUTCOME MOST OF THE
TIME. EC SHOWS THINGS STAYING DRY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER ALL THE CWA. IF
OTHER MODELS LATCH ONTO THIS...THEN POPS CAN ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
REMOVED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAYBE EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT TOTALLY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO HAVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE MODELS ALL SHOW DIFFERENT TIMING WITH THE FIRST MAIN SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION. THE EC WAS THE SLOWEST AT BRINGING IN THE FIRST
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE EC DOES NOT BRING MUCH OF
ANY RAINFALL IN UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN AND GFS WERE
QUICKER AND BRING SOMETHING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALL SHOW A
DIFFERENT MOVEMENT AND RESULTANT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THUS...CONTINUED WITH GOOD POPS INTO MONDAY. MAY HAVE ONLY A SHORT
TIME PERIOD WHERE IT WILL BE DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 60S AND 70S FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
 LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KFSD 210307
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1007 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WEAKENING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH ATTENDANT CLOUDS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DINNER TIME OR SHORTLY AFTER.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BRING A COOL MORNING ON
THURSDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY TO 40 TO 45 MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK UP TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE
OF 5 TO 15 MPH. LOTS OF SUN AND A MUCH NEEDED REST FROM THE COOL
WEATHER AS HIGH REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL
RUN LOWER TO MID 40S. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING HIGH. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY...MAY SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
A BIT WARMER FOR FRIDAY...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S...TAPERING DOWN TO MID/UPPER 60S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE CLOUDS MAY COME IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

THE SHORTWAVE THEN LIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HOLD OFF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM UNTIL
LATER ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND WESTWARD...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WILL PROBABLY HAVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE WAVE LIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...MODELS IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT ON BOTH
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODELS POINT TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY DIFFICULT. IN LIGHT
OF THAT...STUCK WITH CONSENSUS WHICH WOULD PUT BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS KEEPS HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY BY MID-
MORNING...TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KFSD 210307
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1007 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WEAKENING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH ATTENDANT CLOUDS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DINNER TIME OR SHORTLY AFTER.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BRING A COOL MORNING ON
THURSDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY TO 40 TO 45 MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK UP TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE
OF 5 TO 15 MPH. LOTS OF SUN AND A MUCH NEEDED REST FROM THE COOL
WEATHER AS HIGH REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL
RUN LOWER TO MID 40S. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING HIGH. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY...MAY SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
A BIT WARMER FOR FRIDAY...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S...TAPERING DOWN TO MID/UPPER 60S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE CLOUDS MAY COME IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

THE SHORTWAVE THEN LIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HOLD OFF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM UNTIL
LATER ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND WESTWARD...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WILL PROBABLY HAVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE WAVE LIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...MODELS IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT ON BOTH
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODELS POINT TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY DIFFICULT. IN LIGHT
OF THAT...STUCK WITH CONSENSUS WHICH WOULD PUT BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS KEEPS HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY BY MID-
MORNING...TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KABR 210216 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
916 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COULD GET A
LITTLE FROSTY OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AND NOT WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RATHER QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S. OVERALL AIR
MASS STAYS FAIRLY MILD ALOFT AND WINDS WILL ACTUALLY GO WESTERLY
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS IN THE 30S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
ALSO OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH. IF FACT...WILL BE BORDERLINE FROST CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA...BUT CURRENT MIN T GRID SHOWS ABOUT 36/37 DEGREES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. INSERTED PATCHY FROST FOR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE
OF THE CWA AND WILL BE UP AGAINST A FROST ADVISORY IN UNR CWA SO
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMP TRENDS TO SEE IF EXPANSION
INTO OUR CWA IS NEEDED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKING VERY PLEASANT AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. AIR MASS WARMS A BIT AT 925/850 MB SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO BE A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY. BUMPED UP HIGHS
A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST PLACES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED...TEMPS ALOFT...AND SEEING HOW TEMPS
TODAY MANAGED TO CLIMB.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THAT FIRST
SHOWS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LEFT IN SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING CHANCES CWA-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH...LOOKING AT THE
LATEST 12Z EC AND IT SHOWS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN QUITE A
BIT...WHICH IS TYPICAL AND USUALLY A TRUSTWORTHY OUTCOME MOST OF THE
TIME. EC SHOWS THINGS STAYING DRY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER ALL THE CWA. IF
OTHER MODELS LATCH ONTO THIS...THEN POPS CAN ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
REMOVED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAYBE EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT TOTALLY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO HAVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE MODELS ALL SHOW DIFFERENT TIMING WITH THE FIRST MAIN SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION. THE EC WAS THE SLOWEST AT BRINGING IN THE FIRST
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE EC DOES NOT BRING MUCH OF
ANY RAINFALL IN UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN AND GFS WERE
QUICKER AND BRING SOMETHING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALL SHOW A
DIFFERENT MOVEMENT AND RESULTANT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THUS...CONTINUED WITH GOOD POPS INTO MONDAY. MAY HAVE ONLY A SHORT
TIME PERIOD WHERE IT WILL BE DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 60S AND 70S FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KABR 210216 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
916 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COULD GET A
LITTLE FROSTY OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AND NOT WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RATHER QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S. OVERALL AIR
MASS STAYS FAIRLY MILD ALOFT AND WINDS WILL ACTUALLY GO WESTERLY
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS IN THE 30S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
ALSO OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH. IF FACT...WILL BE BORDERLINE FROST CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA...BUT CURRENT MIN T GRID SHOWS ABOUT 36/37 DEGREES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. INSERTED PATCHY FROST FOR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE
OF THE CWA AND WILL BE UP AGAINST A FROST ADVISORY IN UNR CWA SO
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMP TRENDS TO SEE IF EXPANSION
INTO OUR CWA IS NEEDED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKING VERY PLEASANT AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. AIR MASS WARMS A BIT AT 925/850 MB SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO BE A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY. BUMPED UP HIGHS
A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST PLACES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED...TEMPS ALOFT...AND SEEING HOW TEMPS
TODAY MANAGED TO CLIMB.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THAT FIRST
SHOWS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LEFT IN SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING CHANCES CWA-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH...LOOKING AT THE
LATEST 12Z EC AND IT SHOWS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN QUITE A
BIT...WHICH IS TYPICAL AND USUALLY A TRUSTWORTHY OUTCOME MOST OF THE
TIME. EC SHOWS THINGS STAYING DRY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER ALL THE CWA. IF
OTHER MODELS LATCH ONTO THIS...THEN POPS CAN ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
REMOVED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAYBE EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT TOTALLY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO HAVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE MODELS ALL SHOW DIFFERENT TIMING WITH THE FIRST MAIN SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION. THE EC WAS THE SLOWEST AT BRINGING IN THE FIRST
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE EC DOES NOT BRING MUCH OF
ANY RAINFALL IN UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN AND GFS WERE
QUICKER AND BRING SOMETHING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALL SHOW A
DIFFERENT MOVEMENT AND RESULTANT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THUS...CONTINUED WITH GOOD POPS INTO MONDAY. MAY HAVE ONLY A SHORT
TIME PERIOD WHERE IT WILL BE DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 60S AND 70S FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK



000
FXUS63 KUNR 202318
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
518 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS HIGH
PRESSURE/WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...AND AS STRATUS GRADUALLY CLEARS OVER THE
SOUTH...CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING. NO ECHOES ON THE RADAR CURRENTLY
BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. LACK OF CLOUDINESS COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TONIGHT. AREAS OF
FROST ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND SO HAVE ISSUED A
FROST ADVISORY FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY...AND SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S...BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S...WITH 30S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND
EASTWARD...DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE WAVE. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED AND
WET PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOCALIZED AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NE WY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ TO 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/
     THURSDAY FOR SDZ012-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-072>074.

WY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ054>056-058-
     071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 202318
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
518 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS HIGH
PRESSURE/WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...AND AS STRATUS GRADUALLY CLEARS OVER THE
SOUTH...CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING. NO ECHOES ON THE RADAR CURRENTLY
BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. LACK OF CLOUDINESS COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TONIGHT. AREAS OF
FROST ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND SO HAVE ISSUED A
FROST ADVISORY FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY...AND SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S...BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S...WITH 30S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND
EASTWARD...DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE WAVE. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED AND
WET PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOCALIZED AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NE WY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ TO 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/
     THURSDAY FOR SDZ012-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-072>074.

WY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ054>056-058-
     071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 202318
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
518 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS HIGH
PRESSURE/WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...AND AS STRATUS GRADUALLY CLEARS OVER THE
SOUTH...CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING. NO ECHOES ON THE RADAR CURRENTLY
BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. LACK OF CLOUDINESS COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TONIGHT. AREAS OF
FROST ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND SO HAVE ISSUED A
FROST ADVISORY FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY...AND SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S...BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S...WITH 30S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND
EASTWARD...DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE WAVE. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED AND
WET PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOCALIZED AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NE WY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ TO 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/
     THURSDAY FOR SDZ012-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-072>074.

WY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ054>056-058-
     071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 202318
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
518 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS HIGH
PRESSURE/WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...AND AS STRATUS GRADUALLY CLEARS OVER THE
SOUTH...CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING. NO ECHOES ON THE RADAR CURRENTLY
BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. LACK OF CLOUDINESS COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TONIGHT. AREAS OF
FROST ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND SO HAVE ISSUED A
FROST ADVISORY FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY...AND SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S...BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S...WITH 30S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND
EASTWARD...DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE WAVE. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED AND
WET PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOCALIZED AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NE WY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ TO 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/
     THURSDAY FOR SDZ012-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-072>074.

WY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ054>056-058-
     071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 202318
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
518 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS HIGH
PRESSURE/WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...AND AS STRATUS GRADUALLY CLEARS OVER THE
SOUTH...CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING. NO ECHOES ON THE RADAR CURRENTLY
BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. LACK OF CLOUDINESS COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TONIGHT. AREAS OF
FROST ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND SO HAVE ISSUED A
FROST ADVISORY FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY...AND SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S...BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S...WITH 30S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND
EASTWARD...DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE WAVE. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED AND
WET PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOCALIZED AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NE WY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ TO 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/
     THURSDAY FOR SDZ012-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-072>074.

WY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ054>056-058-
     071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 202318
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
518 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS HIGH
PRESSURE/WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...AND AS STRATUS GRADUALLY CLEARS OVER THE
SOUTH...CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING. NO ECHOES ON THE RADAR CURRENTLY
BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. LACK OF CLOUDINESS COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TONIGHT. AREAS OF
FROST ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND SO HAVE ISSUED A
FROST ADVISORY FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY...AND SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S...BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S...WITH 30S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND
EASTWARD...DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE WAVE. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED AND
WET PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOCALIZED AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NE WY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ TO 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/
     THURSDAY FOR SDZ012-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-072>074.

WY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ054>056-058-
     071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KFSD 202311
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
611 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WEAKENING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH ATTENDANT CLOUDS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DINNER TIME OR SHORTLY AFTER.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BRING A COOL MORNING ON
THURSDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY TO 40 TO 45 MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK UP TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE
OF 5 TO 15 MPH. LOTS OF SUN AND A MUCH NEEDED REST FROM THE COOL
WEATHER AS HIGH REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL
RUN LOWER TO MID 40S. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING HIGH. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY...MAY SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
A BIT WARMER FOR FRIDAY...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S...TAPERING DOWN TO MID/UPPER 60S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE CLOUDS MAY COME IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

THE SHORTWAVE THEN LIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HOLD OFF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM UNTIL
LATER ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND WESTWARD...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WILL PROBABLY HAVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE WAVE LIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...MODELS IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT ON BOTH
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODELS POINT TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY DIFFICULT. IN LIGHT
OF THAT...STUCK WITH CONSENSUS WHICH WOULD PUT BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS KEEPS HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO
TURN WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A MORE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WIND DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 202311
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
611 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WEAKENING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH ATTENDANT CLOUDS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DINNER TIME OR SHORTLY AFTER.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BRING A COOL MORNING ON
THURSDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY TO 40 TO 45 MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK UP TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE
OF 5 TO 15 MPH. LOTS OF SUN AND A MUCH NEEDED REST FROM THE COOL
WEATHER AS HIGH REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL
RUN LOWER TO MID 40S. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING HIGH. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY...MAY SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
A BIT WARMER FOR FRIDAY...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S...TAPERING DOWN TO MID/UPPER 60S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE CLOUDS MAY COME IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

THE SHORTWAVE THEN LIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HOLD OFF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM UNTIL
LATER ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND WESTWARD...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WILL PROBABLY HAVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE WAVE LIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...MODELS IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT ON BOTH
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODELS POINT TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY DIFFICULT. IN LIGHT
OF THAT...STUCK WITH CONSENSUS WHICH WOULD PUT BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS KEEPS HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO
TURN WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A MORE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WIND DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KFSD 202311
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
611 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WEAKENING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH ATTENDANT CLOUDS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DINNER TIME OR SHORTLY AFTER.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BRING A COOL MORNING ON
THURSDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY TO 40 TO 45 MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK UP TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE
OF 5 TO 15 MPH. LOTS OF SUN AND A MUCH NEEDED REST FROM THE COOL
WEATHER AS HIGH REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL
RUN LOWER TO MID 40S. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING HIGH. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY...MAY SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
A BIT WARMER FOR FRIDAY...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S...TAPERING DOWN TO MID/UPPER 60S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE CLOUDS MAY COME IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

THE SHORTWAVE THEN LIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HOLD OFF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM UNTIL
LATER ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND WESTWARD...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WILL PROBABLY HAVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE WAVE LIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...MODELS IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT ON BOTH
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODELS POINT TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY DIFFICULT. IN LIGHT
OF THAT...STUCK WITH CONSENSUS WHICH WOULD PUT BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS KEEPS HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO
TURN WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A MORE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WIND DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 202311
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
611 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WEAKENING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH ATTENDANT CLOUDS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DINNER TIME OR SHORTLY AFTER.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BRING A COOL MORNING ON
THURSDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY TO 40 TO 45 MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK UP TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE
OF 5 TO 15 MPH. LOTS OF SUN AND A MUCH NEEDED REST FROM THE COOL
WEATHER AS HIGH REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL
RUN LOWER TO MID 40S. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING HIGH. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY...MAY SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
A BIT WARMER FOR FRIDAY...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S...TAPERING DOWN TO MID/UPPER 60S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE CLOUDS MAY COME IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

THE SHORTWAVE THEN LIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HOLD OFF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM UNTIL
LATER ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND WESTWARD...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WILL PROBABLY HAVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE WAVE LIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...MODELS IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT ON BOTH
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODELS POINT TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY DIFFICULT. IN LIGHT
OF THAT...STUCK WITH CONSENSUS WHICH WOULD PUT BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS KEEPS HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO
TURN WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A MORE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WIND DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KFSD 202041
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WEAKENING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH ATTENDANT CLOUDS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DINNER TIME OR SHORTLY AFTER.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BRING A COOL MORNING ON
THURSDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY TO 40 TO 45 MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK UP TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE
OF 5 TO 15 MPH. LOTS OF SUN AND A MUCH NEEDED REST FROM THE COOL
WEATHER AS HIGH REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL
RUN LOWER TO MID 40S. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING HIGH. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY...MAY SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
A BIT WARMER FOR FRIDAY...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S...TAPERING DOWN TO MID/UPPER 60S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE CLOUDS MAY COME IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

THE SHORTWAVE THEN LIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HOLD OFF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM UNTIL
LATER ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND WESTWARD...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WILL PROBABLY HAVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE WAVE LIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...MODELS IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT ON BOTH
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODELS POINT TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY DIFFICULT. IN LIGHT
OF THAT...STUCK WITH CONSENSUS WHICH WOULD PUT BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS KEEPS HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN VFR THROUGHT THE REMAINING TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 202041
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WEAKENING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH ATTENDANT CLOUDS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DINNER TIME OR SHORTLY AFTER.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BRING A COOL MORNING ON
THURSDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY TO 40 TO 45 MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK UP TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE
OF 5 TO 15 MPH. LOTS OF SUN AND A MUCH NEEDED REST FROM THE COOL
WEATHER AS HIGH REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL
RUN LOWER TO MID 40S. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING HIGH. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY...MAY SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
A BIT WARMER FOR FRIDAY...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S...TAPERING DOWN TO MID/UPPER 60S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE CLOUDS MAY COME IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

THE SHORTWAVE THEN LIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HOLD OFF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM UNTIL
LATER ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND WESTWARD...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WILL PROBABLY HAVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE WAVE LIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...MODELS IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT ON BOTH
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODELS POINT TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY DIFFICULT. IN LIGHT
OF THAT...STUCK WITH CONSENSUS WHICH WOULD PUT BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS KEEPS HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN VFR THROUGHT THE REMAINING TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 202041
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WEAKENING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH ATTENDANT CLOUDS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DINNER TIME OR SHORTLY AFTER.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BRING A COOL MORNING ON
THURSDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY TO 40 TO 45 MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK UP TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE
OF 5 TO 15 MPH. LOTS OF SUN AND A MUCH NEEDED REST FROM THE COOL
WEATHER AS HIGH REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL
RUN LOWER TO MID 40S. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING HIGH. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY...MAY SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
A BIT WARMER FOR FRIDAY...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S...TAPERING DOWN TO MID/UPPER 60S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE CLOUDS MAY COME IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

THE SHORTWAVE THEN LIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HOLD OFF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM UNTIL
LATER ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND WESTWARD...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WILL PROBABLY HAVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE WAVE LIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...MODELS IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT ON BOTH
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODELS POINT TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY DIFFICULT. IN LIGHT
OF THAT...STUCK WITH CONSENSUS WHICH WOULD PUT BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS KEEPS HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN VFR THROUGHT THE REMAINING TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 202041
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WEAKENING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH ATTENDANT CLOUDS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DINNER TIME OR SHORTLY AFTER.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BRING A COOL MORNING ON
THURSDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY TO 40 TO 45 MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK UP TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE
OF 5 TO 15 MPH. LOTS OF SUN AND A MUCH NEEDED REST FROM THE COOL
WEATHER AS HIGH REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL
RUN LOWER TO MID 40S. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING HIGH. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY...MAY SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
A BIT WARMER FOR FRIDAY...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S...TAPERING DOWN TO MID/UPPER 60S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE CLOUDS MAY COME IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

THE SHORTWAVE THEN LIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HOLD OFF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM UNTIL
LATER ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND WESTWARD...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WILL PROBABLY HAVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE WAVE LIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...MODELS IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT ON BOTH
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODELS POINT TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY DIFFICULT. IN LIGHT
OF THAT...STUCK WITH CONSENSUS WHICH WOULD PUT BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS KEEPS HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN VFR THROUGHT THE REMAINING TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KUNR 202032
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
232 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS HIGH
PRESSURE/WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...AND AS STRATUS GRADUALLY CLEARS OVER THE
SOUTH...CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING. NO ECHOES ON THE RADAR CURRENTLY
BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. LACK OF CLOUDINESS COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TONIGHT. AREAS OF
FROST ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND SO HAVE ISSUED A
FROST ADVISORY FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY...AND SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S...BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S...WITH 30S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND
EASTWARD...DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE WAVE. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED AND
WET PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOCALIZED AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ TO 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/
     THURSDAY FOR SDZ012-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-072>074.

WY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ054>056-058-
     071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS



000
FXUS63 KUNR 202032
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
232 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS HIGH
PRESSURE/WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...AND AS STRATUS GRADUALLY CLEARS OVER THE
SOUTH...CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING. NO ECHOES ON THE RADAR CURRENTLY
BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. LACK OF CLOUDINESS COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TONIGHT. AREAS OF
FROST ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND SO HAVE ISSUED A
FROST ADVISORY FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY...AND SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S...BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S...WITH 30S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND
EASTWARD...DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE WAVE. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED AND
WET PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOCALIZED AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ TO 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/
     THURSDAY FOR SDZ012-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-072>074.

WY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ054>056-058-
     071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS



000
FXUS63 KUNR 202032
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
232 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS HIGH
PRESSURE/WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...AND AS STRATUS GRADUALLY CLEARS OVER THE
SOUTH...CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING. NO ECHOES ON THE RADAR CURRENTLY
BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. LACK OF CLOUDINESS COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TONIGHT. AREAS OF
FROST ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND SO HAVE ISSUED A
FROST ADVISORY FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY...AND SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S...BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S...WITH 30S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND
EASTWARD...DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE WAVE. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED AND
WET PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOCALIZED AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ TO 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/
     THURSDAY FOR SDZ012-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-072>074.

WY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ054>056-058-
     071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS



000
FXUS63 KUNR 202032
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
232 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS HIGH
PRESSURE/WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...AND AS STRATUS GRADUALLY CLEARS OVER THE
SOUTH...CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING. NO ECHOES ON THE RADAR CURRENTLY
BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. LACK OF CLOUDINESS COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TONIGHT. AREAS OF
FROST ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND SO HAVE ISSUED A
FROST ADVISORY FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY...AND SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S...BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S...WITH 30S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND
EASTWARD...DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE WAVE. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED AND
WET PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOCALIZED AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ TO 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/
     THURSDAY FOR SDZ012-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-072>074.

WY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ054>056-058-
     071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS



000
FXUS63 KABR 202031
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
331 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RATHER QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S. OVERALL AIR
MASS STAYS FAIRLY MILD ALOFT AND WINDS WILL ACTUALLY GO WESTERLY
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS IN THE 30S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
ALSO OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH. IF FACT...WILL BE BORDERLINE FROST CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA...BUT CURRENT MIN T GRID SHOWS ABOUT 36/37 DEGREES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. INSERTED PATCHY FROST FOR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE
OF THE CWA AND WILL BE UP AGAINST A FROST ADVISORY IN UNR CWA SO
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMP TRENDS TO SEE IF EXPANSION
INTO OUR CWA IS NEEDED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKING VERY PLEASANT AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. AIR MASS WARMS A BIT AT 925/850 MB SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO BE A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY. BUMPED UP HIGHS
A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST PLACES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED...TEMPS ALOFT...AND SEEING HOW TEMPS
TODAY MANAGED TO CLIMB.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THAT FIRST
SHOWS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LEFT IN SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING CHANCES CWA-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH...LOOKING AT THE
LATEST 12Z EC AND IT SHOWS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN QUITE A
BIT...WHICH IS TYPICAL AND USUALLY A TRUSTWORTHY OUTCOME MOST OF THE
TIME. EC SHOWS THINGS STAYING DRY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER ALL THE CWA. IF
OTHER MODELS LATCH ONTO THIS...THEN POPS CAN ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
REMOVED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAYBE EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT TOTALLY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO HAVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE MODELS ALL SHOW DIFFERENT TIMING WITH THE FIRST MAIN SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION. THE EC WAS THE SLOWEST AT BRINGING IN THE FIRST
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE EC DOES NOT BRING MUCH OF
ANY RAINFALL IN UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN AND GFS WERE
QUICKER AND BRING SOMETHING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALL SHOW A
DIFFERENT MOVEMENT AND RESULTANT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THUS...CONTINUED WITH GOOD POPS INTO MONDAY. MAY HAVE ONLY A SHORT
TIME PERIOD WHERE IT WILL BE DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 60S AND 70S FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR




000
FXUS63 KABR 202031
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
331 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RATHER QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S. OVERALL AIR
MASS STAYS FAIRLY MILD ALOFT AND WINDS WILL ACTUALLY GO WESTERLY
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS IN THE 30S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
ALSO OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH. IF FACT...WILL BE BORDERLINE FROST CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA...BUT CURRENT MIN T GRID SHOWS ABOUT 36/37 DEGREES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. INSERTED PATCHY FROST FOR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE
OF THE CWA AND WILL BE UP AGAINST A FROST ADVISORY IN UNR CWA SO
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMP TRENDS TO SEE IF EXPANSION
INTO OUR CWA IS NEEDED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKING VERY PLEASANT AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. AIR MASS WARMS A BIT AT 925/850 MB SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO BE A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY. BUMPED UP HIGHS
A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST PLACES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED...TEMPS ALOFT...AND SEEING HOW TEMPS
TODAY MANAGED TO CLIMB.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THAT FIRST
SHOWS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LEFT IN SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING CHANCES CWA-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH...LOOKING AT THE
LATEST 12Z EC AND IT SHOWS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN QUITE A
BIT...WHICH IS TYPICAL AND USUALLY A TRUSTWORTHY OUTCOME MOST OF THE
TIME. EC SHOWS THINGS STAYING DRY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER ALL THE CWA. IF
OTHER MODELS LATCH ONTO THIS...THEN POPS CAN ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
REMOVED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAYBE EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT TOTALLY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO HAVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE MODELS ALL SHOW DIFFERENT TIMING WITH THE FIRST MAIN SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION. THE EC WAS THE SLOWEST AT BRINGING IN THE FIRST
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE EC DOES NOT BRING MUCH OF
ANY RAINFALL IN UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN AND GFS WERE
QUICKER AND BRING SOMETHING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALL SHOW A
DIFFERENT MOVEMENT AND RESULTANT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THUS...CONTINUED WITH GOOD POPS INTO MONDAY. MAY HAVE ONLY A SHORT
TIME PERIOD WHERE IT WILL BE DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 60S AND 70S FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR




000
FXUS63 KABR 202031
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
331 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RATHER QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S. OVERALL AIR
MASS STAYS FAIRLY MILD ALOFT AND WINDS WILL ACTUALLY GO WESTERLY
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS IN THE 30S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
ALSO OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH. IF FACT...WILL BE BORDERLINE FROST CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA...BUT CURRENT MIN T GRID SHOWS ABOUT 36/37 DEGREES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. INSERTED PATCHY FROST FOR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE
OF THE CWA AND WILL BE UP AGAINST A FROST ADVISORY IN UNR CWA SO
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMP TRENDS TO SEE IF EXPANSION
INTO OUR CWA IS NEEDED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKING VERY PLEASANT AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. AIR MASS WARMS A BIT AT 925/850 MB SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO BE A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY. BUMPED UP HIGHS
A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST PLACES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED...TEMPS ALOFT...AND SEEING HOW TEMPS
TODAY MANAGED TO CLIMB.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THAT FIRST
SHOWS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LEFT IN SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING CHANCES CWA-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH...LOOKING AT THE
LATEST 12Z EC AND IT SHOWS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN QUITE A
BIT...WHICH IS TYPICAL AND USUALLY A TRUSTWORTHY OUTCOME MOST OF THE
TIME. EC SHOWS THINGS STAYING DRY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER ALL THE CWA. IF
OTHER MODELS LATCH ONTO THIS...THEN POPS CAN ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
REMOVED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAYBE EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT TOTALLY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO HAVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE MODELS ALL SHOW DIFFERENT TIMING WITH THE FIRST MAIN SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION. THE EC WAS THE SLOWEST AT BRINGING IN THE FIRST
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE EC DOES NOT BRING MUCH OF
ANY RAINFALL IN UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN AND GFS WERE
QUICKER AND BRING SOMETHING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALL SHOW A
DIFFERENT MOVEMENT AND RESULTANT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THUS...CONTINUED WITH GOOD POPS INTO MONDAY. MAY HAVE ONLY A SHORT
TIME PERIOD WHERE IT WILL BE DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 60S AND 70S FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR




000
FXUS63 KABR 202031
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
331 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RATHER QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S. OVERALL AIR
MASS STAYS FAIRLY MILD ALOFT AND WINDS WILL ACTUALLY GO WESTERLY
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS IN THE 30S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
ALSO OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH. IF FACT...WILL BE BORDERLINE FROST CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA...BUT CURRENT MIN T GRID SHOWS ABOUT 36/37 DEGREES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. INSERTED PATCHY FROST FOR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE
OF THE CWA AND WILL BE UP AGAINST A FROST ADVISORY IN UNR CWA SO
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMP TRENDS TO SEE IF EXPANSION
INTO OUR CWA IS NEEDED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKING VERY PLEASANT AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. AIR MASS WARMS A BIT AT 925/850 MB SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO BE A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY. BUMPED UP HIGHS
A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST PLACES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED...TEMPS ALOFT...AND SEEING HOW TEMPS
TODAY MANAGED TO CLIMB.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THAT FIRST
SHOWS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LEFT IN SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING CHANCES CWA-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH...LOOKING AT THE
LATEST 12Z EC AND IT SHOWS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN QUITE A
BIT...WHICH IS TYPICAL AND USUALLY A TRUSTWORTHY OUTCOME MOST OF THE
TIME. EC SHOWS THINGS STAYING DRY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER ALL THE CWA. IF
OTHER MODELS LATCH ONTO THIS...THEN POPS CAN ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
REMOVED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAYBE EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT TOTALLY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO HAVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE MODELS ALL SHOW DIFFERENT TIMING WITH THE FIRST MAIN SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION. THE EC WAS THE SLOWEST AT BRINGING IN THE FIRST
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE EC DOES NOT BRING MUCH OF
ANY RAINFALL IN UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN AND GFS WERE
QUICKER AND BRING SOMETHING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALL SHOW A
DIFFERENT MOVEMENT AND RESULTANT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THUS...CONTINUED WITH GOOD POPS INTO MONDAY. MAY HAVE ONLY A SHORT
TIME PERIOD WHERE IT WILL BE DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 60S AND 70S FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR




000
FXUS63 KABR 202031
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
331 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RATHER QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S. OVERALL AIR
MASS STAYS FAIRLY MILD ALOFT AND WINDS WILL ACTUALLY GO WESTERLY
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS IN THE 30S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
ALSO OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH. IF FACT...WILL BE BORDERLINE FROST CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA...BUT CURRENT MIN T GRID SHOWS ABOUT 36/37 DEGREES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. INSERTED PATCHY FROST FOR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE
OF THE CWA AND WILL BE UP AGAINST A FROST ADVISORY IN UNR CWA SO
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMP TRENDS TO SEE IF EXPANSION
INTO OUR CWA IS NEEDED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKING VERY PLEASANT AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. AIR MASS WARMS A BIT AT 925/850 MB SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO BE A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY. BUMPED UP HIGHS
A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST PLACES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED...TEMPS ALOFT...AND SEEING HOW TEMPS
TODAY MANAGED TO CLIMB.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THAT FIRST
SHOWS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LEFT IN SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING CHANCES CWA-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH...LOOKING AT THE
LATEST 12Z EC AND IT SHOWS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN QUITE A
BIT...WHICH IS TYPICAL AND USUALLY A TRUSTWORTHY OUTCOME MOST OF THE
TIME. EC SHOWS THINGS STAYING DRY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER ALL THE CWA. IF
OTHER MODELS LATCH ONTO THIS...THEN POPS CAN ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
REMOVED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAYBE EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT TOTALLY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO HAVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE MODELS ALL SHOW DIFFERENT TIMING WITH THE FIRST MAIN SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION. THE EC WAS THE SLOWEST AT BRINGING IN THE FIRST
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE EC DOES NOT BRING MUCH OF
ANY RAINFALL IN UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN AND GFS WERE
QUICKER AND BRING SOMETHING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALL SHOW A
DIFFERENT MOVEMENT AND RESULTANT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THUS...CONTINUED WITH GOOD POPS INTO MONDAY. MAY HAVE ONLY A SHORT
TIME PERIOD WHERE IT WILL BE DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 60S AND 70S FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR




000
FXUS63 KFSD 201816
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
116 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS FAIRLY WEAK RAIN SYSTEM IS WELL BEHAVED...OR PERHAPS ONE SHOULD
SAY THAT APPLIES TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...WITH THE WILD CARD AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE BEING THE EFFECT OF DRIER AIR BELOW MID LEVELS
AFFECTING WHEN AND WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE FSD AREA IS
RIGHT IN THE POP GRADIENT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WILL FALL IF IT DOES
RAIN HERE. THE PEAK OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF OVER OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
13-14Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...APPEARING TO HOLD STEADY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR A BIT
LONGER. IN ANY EVENT BY NOON THE DECREASE WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND
THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES
THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AND
THUS DO NOT SEE A STUBBORN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NATURALLY ENOUGH WILL BE WARMEST IN THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LOWS 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER
60S NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THE CLOUD THINNING AND DECREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING THIS EVENING AS IT ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING DRYING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO COOL BUT NOT FROSTY LEVELS.

WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHERLY...WITH A TREND TO STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CU IN OUR EAST THURSDAY IN AREA OF SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL DOMINANT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA IS LACKING
AND MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS LEAD WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STILL
CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TIMING A BIT.

UNFORTUNATELY STILL VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS IN FINER DETAILS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT EVOLVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TIMING AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH GULF BEGINNING TO OPEN UP BY LATE
SATURDAY...SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH LATEST 20/00Z ECMWF TRENDING A BIT
DRIER IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOLDS UP
THE MOISTURE RETURN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUPPORT OF THIS
TREND IN FUTURE RUNS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WORK TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS
AT THIS RANGE...SO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS FROM ANY ONE
PERIOD. WARMING TREND FROM CURRENT COOL SPELL ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S-LOWER 70S STILL THE BEST BET
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTLIER GFS DOES TRY TO SPREAD WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN VFR THROUGHT THE REMAINING TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KFSD 201816
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
116 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS FAIRLY WEAK RAIN SYSTEM IS WELL BEHAVED...OR PERHAPS ONE SHOULD
SAY THAT APPLIES TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...WITH THE WILD CARD AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE BEING THE EFFECT OF DRIER AIR BELOW MID LEVELS
AFFECTING WHEN AND WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE FSD AREA IS
RIGHT IN THE POP GRADIENT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WILL FALL IF IT DOES
RAIN HERE. THE PEAK OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF OVER OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
13-14Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...APPEARING TO HOLD STEADY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR A BIT
LONGER. IN ANY EVENT BY NOON THE DECREASE WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND
THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES
THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AND
THUS DO NOT SEE A STUBBORN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NATURALLY ENOUGH WILL BE WARMEST IN THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LOWS 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER
60S NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THE CLOUD THINNING AND DECREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING THIS EVENING AS IT ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING DRYING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO COOL BUT NOT FROSTY LEVELS.

WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHERLY...WITH A TREND TO STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CU IN OUR EAST THURSDAY IN AREA OF SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL DOMINANT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA IS LACKING
AND MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS LEAD WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STILL
CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TIMING A BIT.

UNFORTUNATELY STILL VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS IN FINER DETAILS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT EVOLVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TIMING AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH GULF BEGINNING TO OPEN UP BY LATE
SATURDAY...SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH LATEST 20/00Z ECMWF TRENDING A BIT
DRIER IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOLDS UP
THE MOISTURE RETURN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUPPORT OF THIS
TREND IN FUTURE RUNS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WORK TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS
AT THIS RANGE...SO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS FROM ANY ONE
PERIOD. WARMING TREND FROM CURRENT COOL SPELL ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S-LOWER 70S STILL THE BEST BET
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTLIER GFS DOES TRY TO SPREAD WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN VFR THROUGHT THE REMAINING TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KFSD 201816
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
116 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS FAIRLY WEAK RAIN SYSTEM IS WELL BEHAVED...OR PERHAPS ONE SHOULD
SAY THAT APPLIES TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...WITH THE WILD CARD AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE BEING THE EFFECT OF DRIER AIR BELOW MID LEVELS
AFFECTING WHEN AND WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE FSD AREA IS
RIGHT IN THE POP GRADIENT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WILL FALL IF IT DOES
RAIN HERE. THE PEAK OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF OVER OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
13-14Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...APPEARING TO HOLD STEADY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR A BIT
LONGER. IN ANY EVENT BY NOON THE DECREASE WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND
THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES
THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AND
THUS DO NOT SEE A STUBBORN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NATURALLY ENOUGH WILL BE WARMEST IN THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LOWS 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER
60S NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THE CLOUD THINNING AND DECREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING THIS EVENING AS IT ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING DRYING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO COOL BUT NOT FROSTY LEVELS.

WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHERLY...WITH A TREND TO STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CU IN OUR EAST THURSDAY IN AREA OF SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL DOMINANT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA IS LACKING
AND MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS LEAD WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STILL
CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TIMING A BIT.

UNFORTUNATELY STILL VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS IN FINER DETAILS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT EVOLVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TIMING AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH GULF BEGINNING TO OPEN UP BY LATE
SATURDAY...SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH LATEST 20/00Z ECMWF TRENDING A BIT
DRIER IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOLDS UP
THE MOISTURE RETURN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUPPORT OF THIS
TREND IN FUTURE RUNS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WORK TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS
AT THIS RANGE...SO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS FROM ANY ONE
PERIOD. WARMING TREND FROM CURRENT COOL SPELL ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S-LOWER 70S STILL THE BEST BET
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTLIER GFS DOES TRY TO SPREAD WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN VFR THROUGHT THE REMAINING TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KFSD 201816
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
116 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS FAIRLY WEAK RAIN SYSTEM IS WELL BEHAVED...OR PERHAPS ONE SHOULD
SAY THAT APPLIES TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...WITH THE WILD CARD AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE BEING THE EFFECT OF DRIER AIR BELOW MID LEVELS
AFFECTING WHEN AND WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE FSD AREA IS
RIGHT IN THE POP GRADIENT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WILL FALL IF IT DOES
RAIN HERE. THE PEAK OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF OVER OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
13-14Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...APPEARING TO HOLD STEADY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR A BIT
LONGER. IN ANY EVENT BY NOON THE DECREASE WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND
THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES
THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AND
THUS DO NOT SEE A STUBBORN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NATURALLY ENOUGH WILL BE WARMEST IN THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LOWS 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER
60S NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THE CLOUD THINNING AND DECREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING THIS EVENING AS IT ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING DRYING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO COOL BUT NOT FROSTY LEVELS.

WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHERLY...WITH A TREND TO STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CU IN OUR EAST THURSDAY IN AREA OF SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL DOMINANT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA IS LACKING
AND MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS LEAD WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STILL
CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TIMING A BIT.

UNFORTUNATELY STILL VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS IN FINER DETAILS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT EVOLVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TIMING AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH GULF BEGINNING TO OPEN UP BY LATE
SATURDAY...SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH LATEST 20/00Z ECMWF TRENDING A BIT
DRIER IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOLDS UP
THE MOISTURE RETURN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUPPORT OF THIS
TREND IN FUTURE RUNS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WORK TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS
AT THIS RANGE...SO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS FROM ANY ONE
PERIOD. WARMING TREND FROM CURRENT COOL SPELL ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S-LOWER 70S STILL THE BEST BET
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTLIER GFS DOES TRY TO SPREAD WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN VFR THROUGHT THE REMAINING TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KFSD 201816
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
116 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS FAIRLY WEAK RAIN SYSTEM IS WELL BEHAVED...OR PERHAPS ONE SHOULD
SAY THAT APPLIES TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...WITH THE WILD CARD AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE BEING THE EFFECT OF DRIER AIR BELOW MID LEVELS
AFFECTING WHEN AND WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE FSD AREA IS
RIGHT IN THE POP GRADIENT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WILL FALL IF IT DOES
RAIN HERE. THE PEAK OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF OVER OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
13-14Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...APPEARING TO HOLD STEADY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR A BIT
LONGER. IN ANY EVENT BY NOON THE DECREASE WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND
THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES
THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AND
THUS DO NOT SEE A STUBBORN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NATURALLY ENOUGH WILL BE WARMEST IN THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LOWS 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER
60S NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THE CLOUD THINNING AND DECREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING THIS EVENING AS IT ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING DRYING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO COOL BUT NOT FROSTY LEVELS.

WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHERLY...WITH A TREND TO STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CU IN OUR EAST THURSDAY IN AREA OF SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL DOMINANT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA IS LACKING
AND MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS LEAD WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STILL
CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TIMING A BIT.

UNFORTUNATELY STILL VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS IN FINER DETAILS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT EVOLVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TIMING AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH GULF BEGINNING TO OPEN UP BY LATE
SATURDAY...SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH LATEST 20/00Z ECMWF TRENDING A BIT
DRIER IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOLDS UP
THE MOISTURE RETURN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUPPORT OF THIS
TREND IN FUTURE RUNS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WORK TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS
AT THIS RANGE...SO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS FROM ANY ONE
PERIOD. WARMING TREND FROM CURRENT COOL SPELL ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S-LOWER 70S STILL THE BEST BET
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTLIER GFS DOES TRY TO SPREAD WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN VFR THROUGHT THE REMAINING TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KFSD 201816
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
116 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS FAIRLY WEAK RAIN SYSTEM IS WELL BEHAVED...OR PERHAPS ONE SHOULD
SAY THAT APPLIES TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...WITH THE WILD CARD AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE BEING THE EFFECT OF DRIER AIR BELOW MID LEVELS
AFFECTING WHEN AND WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE FSD AREA IS
RIGHT IN THE POP GRADIENT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WILL FALL IF IT DOES
RAIN HERE. THE PEAK OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF OVER OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
13-14Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...APPEARING TO HOLD STEADY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR A BIT
LONGER. IN ANY EVENT BY NOON THE DECREASE WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND
THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES
THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AND
THUS DO NOT SEE A STUBBORN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NATURALLY ENOUGH WILL BE WARMEST IN THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LOWS 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER
60S NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THE CLOUD THINNING AND DECREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING THIS EVENING AS IT ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING DRYING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO COOL BUT NOT FROSTY LEVELS.

WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHERLY...WITH A TREND TO STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CU IN OUR EAST THURSDAY IN AREA OF SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL DOMINANT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA IS LACKING
AND MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS LEAD WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STILL
CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TIMING A BIT.

UNFORTUNATELY STILL VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS IN FINER DETAILS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT EVOLVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TIMING AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH GULF BEGINNING TO OPEN UP BY LATE
SATURDAY...SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH LATEST 20/00Z ECMWF TRENDING A BIT
DRIER IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOLDS UP
THE MOISTURE RETURN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUPPORT OF THIS
TREND IN FUTURE RUNS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WORK TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS
AT THIS RANGE...SO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS FROM ANY ONE
PERIOD. WARMING TREND FROM CURRENT COOL SPELL ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S-LOWER 70S STILL THE BEST BET
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTLIER GFS DOES TRY TO SPREAD WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN VFR THROUGHT THE REMAINING TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KABR 201732 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1232 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MID LEVEL VORT MAX LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST SD THIS MORNING. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWING ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE IS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST SD. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING...BEFORE GOING WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS APPEAR ON
TRACK AND NO CHANGES THERE. HAD TO TWEAK SKY COVER A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LONGER DURATION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING...BUT
STILL EXPECTING DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SHOWERS SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN
SD. SO FAR NO OBS IN OUR CWA HAVE REPORTED ANY
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONTOGENETIC
BAND THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA...STILL THINK
LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF POPS ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ALMOST THE ENTIRE REGION BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ABUNDANT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WINDS WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DO SNEAK BACK INTO THE VERY FAR SOUTHWEST CWA BY
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BUT MODELS KEEP TRENDING
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS WELL...WITH
HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE 70S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN THE PERIOD
BEGINS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESSEN ON MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK
TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE PRECIPITATION...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
WARMER AIR WILL THEN RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
BACK UP INTO THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR




000
FXUS63 KABR 201732 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1232 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MID LEVEL VORT MAX LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST SD THIS MORNING. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWING ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE IS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST SD. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING...BEFORE GOING WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS APPEAR ON
TRACK AND NO CHANGES THERE. HAD TO TWEAK SKY COVER A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LONGER DURATION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING...BUT
STILL EXPECTING DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SHOWERS SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN
SD. SO FAR NO OBS IN OUR CWA HAVE REPORTED ANY
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONTOGENETIC
BAND THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA...STILL THINK
LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF POPS ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ALMOST THE ENTIRE REGION BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ABUNDANT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WINDS WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DO SNEAK BACK INTO THE VERY FAR SOUTHWEST CWA BY
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BUT MODELS KEEP TRENDING
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS WELL...WITH
HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE 70S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN THE PERIOD
BEGINS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESSEN ON MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK
TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE PRECIPITATION...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
WARMER AIR WILL THEN RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
BACK UP INTO THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR




000
FXUS63 KABR 201732 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1232 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MID LEVEL VORT MAX LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST SD THIS MORNING. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWING ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE IS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST SD. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING...BEFORE GOING WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS APPEAR ON
TRACK AND NO CHANGES THERE. HAD TO TWEAK SKY COVER A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LONGER DURATION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING...BUT
STILL EXPECTING DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SHOWERS SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN
SD. SO FAR NO OBS IN OUR CWA HAVE REPORTED ANY
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONTOGENETIC
BAND THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA...STILL THINK
LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF POPS ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ALMOST THE ENTIRE REGION BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ABUNDANT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WINDS WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DO SNEAK BACK INTO THE VERY FAR SOUTHWEST CWA BY
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BUT MODELS KEEP TRENDING
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS WELL...WITH
HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE 70S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN THE PERIOD
BEGINS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESSEN ON MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK
TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE PRECIPITATION...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
WARMER AIR WILL THEN RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
BACK UP INTO THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR



000
FXUS63 KUNR 201731
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1131 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPPER HIGH IS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES
ARE BECOMING CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND PRECIP IS
DIMINISHING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND POPS TO MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. WATER
VAPOR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NE.
DEFORMATION ZONE -RASN ACROSS SOUTHERN SD STARTING TO WANE AS
MOISTURE PLUME IS CUTOFF AND MAIN FORCING SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON 90KT
JET STREAK ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY. FEW INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PER WEB CAMS/ROAD REPORTS SINCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW PRECIPITATION WANING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOST SYNOPTIC SCALE ACTIVITY/LIFT
DONE BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT DRIER AIR INFILTRATING BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY TO SPRINKLES/VIRGA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AND BE BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT NEAR GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT
DAY...ALBEIT BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. FROST MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
ASSESS FOR HEADLINES. WEAK RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THE PLAINS AND
50S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WY MAY
PRODUCE SMALL POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN STILL LOOK TO BE FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL
GENERALLY BEING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING
TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND THE
BLACK HILLS...CREATING ISOLD MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MLS



000
FXUS63 KUNR 201731
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1131 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPPER HIGH IS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES
ARE BECOMING CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND PRECIP IS
DIMINISHING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND POPS TO MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. WATER
VAPOR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NE.
DEFORMATION ZONE -RASN ACROSS SOUTHERN SD STARTING TO WANE AS
MOISTURE PLUME IS CUTOFF AND MAIN FORCING SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON 90KT
JET STREAK ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY. FEW INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PER WEB CAMS/ROAD REPORTS SINCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW PRECIPITATION WANING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOST SYNOPTIC SCALE ACTIVITY/LIFT
DONE BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT DRIER AIR INFILTRATING BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY TO SPRINKLES/VIRGA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AND BE BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT NEAR GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT
DAY...ALBEIT BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. FROST MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
ASSESS FOR HEADLINES. WEAK RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THE PLAINS AND
50S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WY MAY
PRODUCE SMALL POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN STILL LOOK TO BE FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL
GENERALLY BEING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING
TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND THE
BLACK HILLS...CREATING ISOLD MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MLS



000
FXUS63 KUNR 201731
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1131 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPPER HIGH IS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES
ARE BECOMING CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND PRECIP IS
DIMINISHING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND POPS TO MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. WATER
VAPOR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NE.
DEFORMATION ZONE -RASN ACROSS SOUTHERN SD STARTING TO WANE AS
MOISTURE PLUME IS CUTOFF AND MAIN FORCING SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON 90KT
JET STREAK ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY. FEW INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PER WEB CAMS/ROAD REPORTS SINCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW PRECIPITATION WANING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOST SYNOPTIC SCALE ACTIVITY/LIFT
DONE BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT DRIER AIR INFILTRATING BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY TO SPRINKLES/VIRGA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AND BE BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT NEAR GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT
DAY...ALBEIT BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. FROST MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
ASSESS FOR HEADLINES. WEAK RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THE PLAINS AND
50S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WY MAY
PRODUCE SMALL POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN STILL LOOK TO BE FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL
GENERALLY BEING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING
TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND THE
BLACK HILLS...CREATING ISOLD MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MLS



000
FXUS63 KUNR 201731
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1131 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPPER HIGH IS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES
ARE BECOMING CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND PRECIP IS
DIMINISHING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND POPS TO MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. WATER
VAPOR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NE.
DEFORMATION ZONE -RASN ACROSS SOUTHERN SD STARTING TO WANE AS
MOISTURE PLUME IS CUTOFF AND MAIN FORCING SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON 90KT
JET STREAK ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY. FEW INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PER WEB CAMS/ROAD REPORTS SINCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW PRECIPITATION WANING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOST SYNOPTIC SCALE ACTIVITY/LIFT
DONE BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT DRIER AIR INFILTRATING BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY TO SPRINKLES/VIRGA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AND BE BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT NEAR GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT
DAY...ALBEIT BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. FROST MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
ASSESS FOR HEADLINES. WEAK RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THE PLAINS AND
50S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WY MAY
PRODUCE SMALL POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN STILL LOOK TO BE FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL
GENERALLY BEING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING
TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND THE
BLACK HILLS...CREATING ISOLD MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MLS



000
FXUS63 KUNR 201731
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1131 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPPER HIGH IS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES
ARE BECOMING CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND PRECIP IS
DIMINISHING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND POPS TO MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. WATER
VAPOR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NE.
DEFORMATION ZONE -RASN ACROSS SOUTHERN SD STARTING TO WANE AS
MOISTURE PLUME IS CUTOFF AND MAIN FORCING SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON 90KT
JET STREAK ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY. FEW INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PER WEB CAMS/ROAD REPORTS SINCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW PRECIPITATION WANING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOST SYNOPTIC SCALE ACTIVITY/LIFT
DONE BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT DRIER AIR INFILTRATING BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY TO SPRINKLES/VIRGA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AND BE BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT NEAR GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT
DAY...ALBEIT BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. FROST MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
ASSESS FOR HEADLINES. WEAK RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THE PLAINS AND
50S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WY MAY
PRODUCE SMALL POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN STILL LOOK TO BE FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL
GENERALLY BEING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING
TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND THE
BLACK HILLS...CREATING ISOLD MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MLS



000
FXUS63 KUNR 201731
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1131 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPPER HIGH IS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES
ARE BECOMING CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND PRECIP IS
DIMINISHING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND POPS TO MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. WATER
VAPOR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NE.
DEFORMATION ZONE -RASN ACROSS SOUTHERN SD STARTING TO WANE AS
MOISTURE PLUME IS CUTOFF AND MAIN FORCING SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON 90KT
JET STREAK ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY. FEW INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PER WEB CAMS/ROAD REPORTS SINCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW PRECIPITATION WANING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOST SYNOPTIC SCALE ACTIVITY/LIFT
DONE BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT DRIER AIR INFILTRATING BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY TO SPRINKLES/VIRGA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AND BE BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT NEAR GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT
DAY...ALBEIT BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. FROST MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
ASSESS FOR HEADLINES. WEAK RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THE PLAINS AND
50S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WY MAY
PRODUCE SMALL POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN STILL LOOK TO BE FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL
GENERALLY BEING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING
TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND THE
BLACK HILLS...CREATING ISOLD MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MLS




000
FXUS63 KABR 201532 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1032 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MID LEVEL VORT MAX LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST SD THIS MORNING. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWING ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE IS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST SD. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING...BEFORE GOING WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS APPEAR ON
TRACK AND NO CHANGES THERE. HAD TO TWEAK SKY COVER A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LONGER DURATION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING...BUT
STILL EXPECTING DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SHOWERS SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN
SD. SO FAR NO OBS IN OUR CWA HAVE REPORTED ANY
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONTOGENETIC
BAND THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA...STILL THINK
LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF POPS ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ALMOST THE ENTIRE REGION BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ABUNDANT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WINDS WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DO SNEAK BACK INTO THE VERY FAR SOUTHWEST CWA BY
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BUT MODELS KEEP TRENDING
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS WELL...WITH
HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE 70S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN THE PERIOD
BEGINS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESSEN ON MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK
TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE PRECIPITATION...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
WARMER AIR WILL THEN RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
BACK UP INTO THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KABR 201532 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1032 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MID LEVEL VORT MAX LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST SD THIS MORNING. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWING ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE IS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST SD. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING...BEFORE GOING WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS APPEAR ON
TRACK AND NO CHANGES THERE. HAD TO TWEAK SKY COVER A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LONGER DURATION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING...BUT
STILL EXPECTING DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SHOWERS SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN
SD. SO FAR NO OBS IN OUR CWA HAVE REPORTED ANY
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONTOGENETIC
BAND THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA...STILL THINK
LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF POPS ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ALMOST THE ENTIRE REGION BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ABUNDANT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WINDS WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DO SNEAK BACK INTO THE VERY FAR SOUTHWEST CWA BY
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BUT MODELS KEEP TRENDING
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS WELL...WITH
HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE 70S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN THE PERIOD
BEGINS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESSEN ON MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK
TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE PRECIPITATION...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
WARMER AIR WILL THEN RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
BACK UP INTO THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KUNR 201514
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
914 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPPER HIGH IS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES
ARE BECOMING CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND PRECIP IS
DIMINISHING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND POPS TO MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. WATER
VAPOR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NE.
DEFORMATION ZONE -RASN ACROSS SOUTHERN SD STARTING TO WANE AS
MOISTURE PLUME IS CUTOFF AND MAIN FORCING SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON 90KT
JET STREAK ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY. FEW INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PER WEB CAMS/ROAD REPORTS SINCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW PRECIPITATION WANING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOST SYNOPTIC SCALE ACTIVITY/LIFT
DONE BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT DRIER AIR INFILTRATING BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY TO SPRINKLES/VIRGA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AND BE BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT NEAR GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT
DAY...ALBEIT BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. FROST MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
ASSESS FOR HEADLINES. WEAK RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THE PLAINS AND
50S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WY MAY
PRODUCE SMALL POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN STILL LOOK TO BE FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL
GENERALLY BEING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING
TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN SD AND FAR NORTHEAST WY WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST SD.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS63 KUNR 201514
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
914 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPPER HIGH IS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES
ARE BECOMING CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND PRECIP IS
DIMINISHING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND POPS TO MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. WATER
VAPOR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NE.
DEFORMATION ZONE -RASN ACROSS SOUTHERN SD STARTING TO WANE AS
MOISTURE PLUME IS CUTOFF AND MAIN FORCING SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON 90KT
JET STREAK ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY. FEW INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PER WEB CAMS/ROAD REPORTS SINCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW PRECIPITATION WANING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOST SYNOPTIC SCALE ACTIVITY/LIFT
DONE BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT DRIER AIR INFILTRATING BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY TO SPRINKLES/VIRGA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AND BE BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT NEAR GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT
DAY...ALBEIT BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. FROST MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
ASSESS FOR HEADLINES. WEAK RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THE PLAINS AND
50S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WY MAY
PRODUCE SMALL POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN STILL LOOK TO BE FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL
GENERALLY BEING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING
TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN SD AND FAR NORTHEAST WY WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST SD.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 201514
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
914 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPPER HIGH IS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES
ARE BECOMING CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND PRECIP IS
DIMINISHING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND POPS TO MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. WATER
VAPOR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NE.
DEFORMATION ZONE -RASN ACROSS SOUTHERN SD STARTING TO WANE AS
MOISTURE PLUME IS CUTOFF AND MAIN FORCING SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON 90KT
JET STREAK ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY. FEW INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PER WEB CAMS/ROAD REPORTS SINCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW PRECIPITATION WANING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOST SYNOPTIC SCALE ACTIVITY/LIFT
DONE BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT DRIER AIR INFILTRATING BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY TO SPRINKLES/VIRGA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AND BE BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT NEAR GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT
DAY...ALBEIT BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. FROST MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
ASSESS FOR HEADLINES. WEAK RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THE PLAINS AND
50S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WY MAY
PRODUCE SMALL POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN STILL LOOK TO BE FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL
GENERALLY BEING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING
TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN SD AND FAR NORTHEAST WY WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST SD.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 201514
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
914 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPPER HIGH IS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES
ARE BECOMING CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND PRECIP IS
DIMINISHING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND POPS TO MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. WATER
VAPOR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NE.
DEFORMATION ZONE -RASN ACROSS SOUTHERN SD STARTING TO WANE AS
MOISTURE PLUME IS CUTOFF AND MAIN FORCING SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON 90KT
JET STREAK ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY. FEW INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PER WEB CAMS/ROAD REPORTS SINCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW PRECIPITATION WANING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOST SYNOPTIC SCALE ACTIVITY/LIFT
DONE BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT DRIER AIR INFILTRATING BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY TO SPRINKLES/VIRGA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AND BE BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT NEAR GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT
DAY...ALBEIT BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. FROST MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
ASSESS FOR HEADLINES. WEAK RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THE PLAINS AND
50S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WY MAY
PRODUCE SMALL POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN STILL LOOK TO BE FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL
GENERALLY BEING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING
TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN SD AND FAR NORTHEAST WY WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST SD.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 201514
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
914 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPPER HIGH IS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES
ARE BECOMING CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND PRECIP IS
DIMINISHING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND POPS TO MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. WATER
VAPOR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NE.
DEFORMATION ZONE -RASN ACROSS SOUTHERN SD STARTING TO WANE AS
MOISTURE PLUME IS CUTOFF AND MAIN FORCING SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON 90KT
JET STREAK ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY. FEW INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PER WEB CAMS/ROAD REPORTS SINCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW PRECIPITATION WANING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOST SYNOPTIC SCALE ACTIVITY/LIFT
DONE BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT DRIER AIR INFILTRATING BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY TO SPRINKLES/VIRGA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AND BE BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT NEAR GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT
DAY...ALBEIT BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. FROST MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
ASSESS FOR HEADLINES. WEAK RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THE PLAINS AND
50S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WY MAY
PRODUCE SMALL POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN STILL LOOK TO BE FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL
GENERALLY BEING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING
TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN SD AND FAR NORTHEAST WY WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST SD.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 201514
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
914 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPPER HIGH IS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES
ARE BECOMING CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND PRECIP IS
DIMINISHING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND POPS TO MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. WATER
VAPOR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NE.
DEFORMATION ZONE -RASN ACROSS SOUTHERN SD STARTING TO WANE AS
MOISTURE PLUME IS CUTOFF AND MAIN FORCING SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON 90KT
JET STREAK ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY. FEW INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PER WEB CAMS/ROAD REPORTS SINCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW PRECIPITATION WANING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOST SYNOPTIC SCALE ACTIVITY/LIFT
DONE BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT DRIER AIR INFILTRATING BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY TO SPRINKLES/VIRGA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AND BE BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT NEAR GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT
DAY...ALBEIT BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. FROST MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
ASSESS FOR HEADLINES. WEAK RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THE PLAINS AND
50S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WY MAY
PRODUCE SMALL POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN STILL LOOK TO BE FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL
GENERALLY BEING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING
TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN SD AND FAR NORTHEAST WY WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST SD.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 201136
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
536 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NE.
DEFORMATION ZONE -RASN ACROSS SOUTHERN SD STARTING TO WANE AS
MOISTURE PLUME IS CUTOFF AND MAIN FORCING SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON 90KT
JET STREAK ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY. FEW INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PER WEB CAMS/ROAD REPORTS SINCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW PRECIPITATION WANING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOST SYNOPTIC SCALE ACTIVITY/LIFT
DONE BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT DRIER AIR INFILTRATING BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY TO SPRINKLES/VIRGA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AND BE BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT NEAR
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A
PLEASANT DAY...ALBEIT BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. FROST MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
ASSESS FOR HEADLINES. WEAK RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THE PLAINS AND
50S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WY MAY
PRODUCE SMALL POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN STILL LOOK TO BE FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL
GENERALLY BEING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING
TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN SD AND FAR NORTHEAST WY WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 201136
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
536 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NE.
DEFORMATION ZONE -RASN ACROSS SOUTHERN SD STARTING TO WANE AS
MOISTURE PLUME IS CUTOFF AND MAIN FORCING SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON 90KT
JET STREAK ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY. FEW INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PER WEB CAMS/ROAD REPORTS SINCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW PRECIPITATION WANING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOST SYNOPTIC SCALE ACTIVITY/LIFT
DONE BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT DRIER AIR INFILTRATING BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY TO SPRINKLES/VIRGA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AND BE BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT NEAR
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A
PLEASANT DAY...ALBEIT BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. FROST MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
ASSESS FOR HEADLINES. WEAK RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THE PLAINS AND
50S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WY MAY
PRODUCE SMALL POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN STILL LOOK TO BE FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL
GENERALLY BEING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING
TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN SD AND FAR NORTHEAST WY WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 201136
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
536 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NE.
DEFORMATION ZONE -RASN ACROSS SOUTHERN SD STARTING TO WANE AS
MOISTURE PLUME IS CUTOFF AND MAIN FORCING SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON 90KT
JET STREAK ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY. FEW INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PER WEB CAMS/ROAD REPORTS SINCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW PRECIPITATION WANING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOST SYNOPTIC SCALE ACTIVITY/LIFT
DONE BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT DRIER AIR INFILTRATING BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY TO SPRINKLES/VIRGA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AND BE BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT NEAR
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A
PLEASANT DAY...ALBEIT BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. FROST MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
ASSESS FOR HEADLINES. WEAK RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THE PLAINS AND
50S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WY MAY
PRODUCE SMALL POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN STILL LOOK TO BE FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL
GENERALLY BEING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING
TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN SD AND FAR NORTHEAST WY WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 201136
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
536 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NE.
DEFORMATION ZONE -RASN ACROSS SOUTHERN SD STARTING TO WANE AS
MOISTURE PLUME IS CUTOFF AND MAIN FORCING SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON 90KT
JET STREAK ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY. FEW INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PER WEB CAMS/ROAD REPORTS SINCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW PRECIPITATION WANING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOST SYNOPTIC SCALE ACTIVITY/LIFT
DONE BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT DRIER AIR INFILTRATING BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY TO SPRINKLES/VIRGA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AND BE BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT NEAR
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A
PLEASANT DAY...ALBEIT BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. FROST MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
ASSESS FOR HEADLINES. WEAK RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THE PLAINS AND
50S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WY MAY
PRODUCE SMALL POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN STILL LOOK TO BE FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL
GENERALLY BEING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING
TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN SD AND FAR NORTHEAST WY WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 201136
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
536 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NE.
DEFORMATION ZONE -RASN ACROSS SOUTHERN SD STARTING TO WANE AS
MOISTURE PLUME IS CUTOFF AND MAIN FORCING SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON 90KT
JET STREAK ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY. FEW INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PER WEB CAMS/ROAD REPORTS SINCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW PRECIPITATION WANING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOST SYNOPTIC SCALE ACTIVITY/LIFT
DONE BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT DRIER AIR INFILTRATING BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY TO SPRINKLES/VIRGA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AND BE BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT NEAR
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A
PLEASANT DAY...ALBEIT BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. FROST MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
ASSESS FOR HEADLINES. WEAK RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THE PLAINS AND
50S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WY MAY
PRODUCE SMALL POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN STILL LOOK TO BE FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL
GENERALLY BEING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING
TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN SD AND FAR NORTHEAST WY WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 201136
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
536 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NE.
DEFORMATION ZONE -RASN ACROSS SOUTHERN SD STARTING TO WANE AS
MOISTURE PLUME IS CUTOFF AND MAIN FORCING SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON 90KT
JET STREAK ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY. FEW INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PER WEB CAMS/ROAD REPORTS SINCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW PRECIPITATION WANING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOST SYNOPTIC SCALE ACTIVITY/LIFT
DONE BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT DRIER AIR INFILTRATING BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY TO SPRINKLES/VIRGA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AND BE BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT NEAR
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A
PLEASANT DAY...ALBEIT BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. FROST MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
ASSESS FOR HEADLINES. WEAK RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THE PLAINS AND
50S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WY MAY
PRODUCE SMALL POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN STILL LOOK TO BE FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL
GENERALLY BEING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING
TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN SD AND FAR NORTHEAST WY WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS63 KFSD 201130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS FAIRLY WEAK RAIN SYSTEM IS WELL BEHAVED...OR PERHAPS ONE SHOULD
SAY THAT APPLIES TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...WITH THE WILD CARD AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE BEING THE EFFECT OF DRIER AIR BELOW MID LEVELS
AFFECTING WHEN AND WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE FSD AREA IS
RIGHT IN THE POP GRADIENT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WILL FALL IF IT DOES
RAIN HERE. THE PEAK OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF OVER OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
13-14Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...APPEARING TO HOLD STEADY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR A BIT
LONGER. IN ANY EVENT BY NOON THE DECREASE WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND
THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES
THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AND
THUS DO NOT SEE A STUBBORN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NATURALLY ENOUGH WILL BE WARMEST IN THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LOWS 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER
60S NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THE CLOUD THINNING AND DECREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING THIS EVENING AS IT ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING DRYING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO COOL BUT NOT FROSTY LEVELS.

WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHERLY...WITH A TREND TO STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CU IN OUR EAST THURSDAY IN AREA OF SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL DOMINANT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA IS LACKING
AND MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS LEAD WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STILL
CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TIMING A BIT.

UNFORTUNATELY STILL VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS IN FINER DETAILS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT EVOLVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TIMING AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH GULF BEGINNING TO OPEN UP BY LATE
SATURDAY...SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH LATEST 20/00Z ECMWF TRENDING A BIT
DRIER IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOLDS UP
THE MOISTURE RETURN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUPPORT OF THIS
TREND IN FUTURE RUNS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WORK TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS
AT THIS RANGE...SO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS FROM ANY ONE
PERIOD. WARMING TREND FROM CURRENT COOL SPELL ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S-LOWER 70S STILL THE BEST BET
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTLIER GFS DOES TRY TO SPREAD WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WILL END 15Z-21Z.
GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT THROUGH 21Z LOCAL CEILINGS 2-3K AND
VISIBILITIES 5SM IN LIGHT RAIN EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
THROUGH 21Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 201130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS FAIRLY WEAK RAIN SYSTEM IS WELL BEHAVED...OR PERHAPS ONE SHOULD
SAY THAT APPLIES TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...WITH THE WILD CARD AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE BEING THE EFFECT OF DRIER AIR BELOW MID LEVELS
AFFECTING WHEN AND WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE FSD AREA IS
RIGHT IN THE POP GRADIENT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WILL FALL IF IT DOES
RAIN HERE. THE PEAK OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF OVER OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
13-14Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...APPEARING TO HOLD STEADY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR A BIT
LONGER. IN ANY EVENT BY NOON THE DECREASE WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND
THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES
THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AND
THUS DO NOT SEE A STUBBORN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NATURALLY ENOUGH WILL BE WARMEST IN THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LOWS 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER
60S NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THE CLOUD THINNING AND DECREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING THIS EVENING AS IT ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING DRYING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO COOL BUT NOT FROSTY LEVELS.

WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHERLY...WITH A TREND TO STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CU IN OUR EAST THURSDAY IN AREA OF SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL DOMINANT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA IS LACKING
AND MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS LEAD WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STILL
CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TIMING A BIT.

UNFORTUNATELY STILL VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS IN FINER DETAILS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT EVOLVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TIMING AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH GULF BEGINNING TO OPEN UP BY LATE
SATURDAY...SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH LATEST 20/00Z ECMWF TRENDING A BIT
DRIER IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOLDS UP
THE MOISTURE RETURN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUPPORT OF THIS
TREND IN FUTURE RUNS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WORK TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS
AT THIS RANGE...SO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS FROM ANY ONE
PERIOD. WARMING TREND FROM CURRENT COOL SPELL ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S-LOWER 70S STILL THE BEST BET
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTLIER GFS DOES TRY TO SPREAD WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WILL END 15Z-21Z.
GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT THROUGH 21Z LOCAL CEILINGS 2-3K AND
VISIBILITIES 5SM IN LIGHT RAIN EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
THROUGH 21Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 201130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS FAIRLY WEAK RAIN SYSTEM IS WELL BEHAVED...OR PERHAPS ONE SHOULD
SAY THAT APPLIES TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...WITH THE WILD CARD AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE BEING THE EFFECT OF DRIER AIR BELOW MID LEVELS
AFFECTING WHEN AND WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE FSD AREA IS
RIGHT IN THE POP GRADIENT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WILL FALL IF IT DOES
RAIN HERE. THE PEAK OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF OVER OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
13-14Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...APPEARING TO HOLD STEADY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR A BIT
LONGER. IN ANY EVENT BY NOON THE DECREASE WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND
THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES
THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AND
THUS DO NOT SEE A STUBBORN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NATURALLY ENOUGH WILL BE WARMEST IN THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LOWS 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER
60S NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THE CLOUD THINNING AND DECREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING THIS EVENING AS IT ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING DRYING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO COOL BUT NOT FROSTY LEVELS.

WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHERLY...WITH A TREND TO STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CU IN OUR EAST THURSDAY IN AREA OF SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL DOMINANT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA IS LACKING
AND MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS LEAD WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STILL
CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TIMING A BIT.

UNFORTUNATELY STILL VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS IN FINER DETAILS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT EVOLVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TIMING AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH GULF BEGINNING TO OPEN UP BY LATE
SATURDAY...SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH LATEST 20/00Z ECMWF TRENDING A BIT
DRIER IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOLDS UP
THE MOISTURE RETURN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUPPORT OF THIS
TREND IN FUTURE RUNS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WORK TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS
AT THIS RANGE...SO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS FROM ANY ONE
PERIOD. WARMING TREND FROM CURRENT COOL SPELL ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S-LOWER 70S STILL THE BEST BET
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTLIER GFS DOES TRY TO SPREAD WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WILL END 15Z-21Z.
GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT THROUGH 21Z LOCAL CEILINGS 2-3K AND
VISIBILITIES 5SM IN LIGHT RAIN EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
THROUGH 21Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 201130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS FAIRLY WEAK RAIN SYSTEM IS WELL BEHAVED...OR PERHAPS ONE SHOULD
SAY THAT APPLIES TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...WITH THE WILD CARD AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE BEING THE EFFECT OF DRIER AIR BELOW MID LEVELS
AFFECTING WHEN AND WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE FSD AREA IS
RIGHT IN THE POP GRADIENT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WILL FALL IF IT DOES
RAIN HERE. THE PEAK OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF OVER OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
13-14Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...APPEARING TO HOLD STEADY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR A BIT
LONGER. IN ANY EVENT BY NOON THE DECREASE WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND
THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES
THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AND
THUS DO NOT SEE A STUBBORN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NATURALLY ENOUGH WILL BE WARMEST IN THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LOWS 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER
60S NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THE CLOUD THINNING AND DECREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING THIS EVENING AS IT ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING DRYING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO COOL BUT NOT FROSTY LEVELS.

WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHERLY...WITH A TREND TO STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CU IN OUR EAST THURSDAY IN AREA OF SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL DOMINANT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA IS LACKING
AND MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS LEAD WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STILL
CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TIMING A BIT.

UNFORTUNATELY STILL VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS IN FINER DETAILS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT EVOLVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TIMING AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH GULF BEGINNING TO OPEN UP BY LATE
SATURDAY...SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH LATEST 20/00Z ECMWF TRENDING A BIT
DRIER IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOLDS UP
THE MOISTURE RETURN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUPPORT OF THIS
TREND IN FUTURE RUNS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WORK TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS
AT THIS RANGE...SO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS FROM ANY ONE
PERIOD. WARMING TREND FROM CURRENT COOL SPELL ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S-LOWER 70S STILL THE BEST BET
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTLIER GFS DOES TRY TO SPREAD WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WILL END 15Z-21Z.
GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT THROUGH 21Z LOCAL CEILINGS 2-3K AND
VISIBILITIES 5SM IN LIGHT RAIN EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
THROUGH 21Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KABR 201125 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
625 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SHOWERS SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN
SD. SO FAR NO OBS IN OUR CWA HAVE REPORTED ANY
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONTOGENETIC
BAND THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA...STILL THINK
LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF POPS ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ALMOST THE ENTIRE REGION BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ABUNDANT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WINDS WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DO SNEAK BACK INTO THE VERY FAR SOUTHWEST CWA BY
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BUT MODELS KEEP TRENDING
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS WELL...WITH
HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE 70S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN THE PERIOD
BEGINS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESSEN ON MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK
TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE PRECIPITATION...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
WARMER AIR WILL THEN RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
BACK UP INTO THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S WILL BE COMMON.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KABR 201125 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
625 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SHOWERS SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN
SD. SO FAR NO OBS IN OUR CWA HAVE REPORTED ANY
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONTOGENETIC
BAND THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA...STILL THINK
LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF POPS ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ALMOST THE ENTIRE REGION BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ABUNDANT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WINDS WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DO SNEAK BACK INTO THE VERY FAR SOUTHWEST CWA BY
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BUT MODELS KEEP TRENDING
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS WELL...WITH
HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE 70S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN THE PERIOD
BEGINS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESSEN ON MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK
TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE PRECIPITATION...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
WARMER AIR WILL THEN RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
BACK UP INTO THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S WILL BE COMMON.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KABR 201125 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
625 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SHOWERS SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN
SD. SO FAR NO OBS IN OUR CWA HAVE REPORTED ANY
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONTOGENETIC
BAND THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA...STILL THINK
LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF POPS ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ALMOST THE ENTIRE REGION BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ABUNDANT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WINDS WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DO SNEAK BACK INTO THE VERY FAR SOUTHWEST CWA BY
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BUT MODELS KEEP TRENDING
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS WELL...WITH
HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE 70S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN THE PERIOD
BEGINS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESSEN ON MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK
TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE PRECIPITATION...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
WARMER AIR WILL THEN RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
BACK UP INTO THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S WILL BE COMMON.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KABR 201125 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
625 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SHOWERS SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN
SD. SO FAR NO OBS IN OUR CWA HAVE REPORTED ANY
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONTOGENETIC
BAND THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA...STILL THINK
LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF POPS ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ALMOST THE ENTIRE REGION BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ABUNDANT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WINDS WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DO SNEAK BACK INTO THE VERY FAR SOUTHWEST CWA BY
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BUT MODELS KEEP TRENDING
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS WELL...WITH
HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE 70S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN THE PERIOD
BEGINS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESSEN ON MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK
TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE PRECIPITATION...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
WARMER AIR WILL THEN RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
BACK UP INTO THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S WILL BE COMMON.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KABR 201125 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
625 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SHOWERS SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN
SD. SO FAR NO OBS IN OUR CWA HAVE REPORTED ANY
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONTOGENETIC
BAND THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA...STILL THINK
LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF POPS ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ALMOST THE ENTIRE REGION BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ABUNDANT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WINDS WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DO SNEAK BACK INTO THE VERY FAR SOUTHWEST CWA BY
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BUT MODELS KEEP TRENDING
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS WELL...WITH
HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE 70S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN THE PERIOD
BEGINS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESSEN ON MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK
TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE PRECIPITATION...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
WARMER AIR WILL THEN RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
BACK UP INTO THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S WILL BE COMMON.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KABR 201125 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
625 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SHOWERS SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN
SD. SO FAR NO OBS IN OUR CWA HAVE REPORTED ANY
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONTOGENETIC
BAND THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA...STILL THINK
LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF POPS ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ALMOST THE ENTIRE REGION BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ABUNDANT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WINDS WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DO SNEAK BACK INTO THE VERY FAR SOUTHWEST CWA BY
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BUT MODELS KEEP TRENDING
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS WELL...WITH
HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE 70S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN THE PERIOD
BEGINS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESSEN ON MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK
TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE PRECIPITATION...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
WARMER AIR WILL THEN RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
BACK UP INTO THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S WILL BE COMMON.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KUNR 200852
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
252 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NE.
DEFORMATION ZONE -RASN ACROSS SOUTHERN SD STARTING TO WANE AS
MOISTURE PLUME IS CUTOFF AND MAIN FORCING SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON 90KT
JET STREAK ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY. FEW INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PER WEB CAMS/ROAD REPORTS SINCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW PRECIPITATION WANING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOST SYNOPTIC SCALE ACTIVITY/LIFT
DONE BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT DRIER AIR INFILTRATING BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY TO SPRINKLES/VIRGA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AND BE BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT NEAR
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A
PLEASANT DAY...ALBEIT BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. FROST MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
ASSESS FOR HEADLINES. WEAK RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THE PLAINS AND
50S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WY MAY
PRODUCE SMALL POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN STILL LOOK TO BE FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL
GENERALLY BEING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING
TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN SD
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS63 KUNR 200852
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
252 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NE.
DEFORMATION ZONE -RASN ACROSS SOUTHERN SD STARTING TO WANE AS
MOISTURE PLUME IS CUTOFF AND MAIN FORCING SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON 90KT
JET STREAK ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY. FEW INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PER WEB CAMS/ROAD REPORTS SINCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW PRECIPITATION WANING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOST SYNOPTIC SCALE ACTIVITY/LIFT
DONE BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT DRIER AIR INFILTRATING BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY TO SPRINKLES/VIRGA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AND BE BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT NEAR
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A
PLEASANT DAY...ALBEIT BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. FROST MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
ASSESS FOR HEADLINES. WEAK RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THE PLAINS AND
50S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WY MAY
PRODUCE SMALL POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN STILL LOOK TO BE FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL
GENERALLY BEING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING
TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN SD
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS63 KUNR 200852
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
252 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NE.
DEFORMATION ZONE -RASN ACROSS SOUTHERN SD STARTING TO WANE AS
MOISTURE PLUME IS CUTOFF AND MAIN FORCING SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON 90KT
JET STREAK ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY. FEW INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PER WEB CAMS/ROAD REPORTS SINCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW PRECIPITATION WANING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOST SYNOPTIC SCALE ACTIVITY/LIFT
DONE BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT DRIER AIR INFILTRATING BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY TO SPRINKLES/VIRGA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AND BE BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT NEAR
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A
PLEASANT DAY...ALBEIT BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. FROST MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
ASSESS FOR HEADLINES. WEAK RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THE PLAINS AND
50S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WY MAY
PRODUCE SMALL POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN STILL LOOK TO BE FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL
GENERALLY BEING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING
TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN SD
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS63 KUNR 200852
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
252 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NE.
DEFORMATION ZONE -RASN ACROSS SOUTHERN SD STARTING TO WANE AS
MOISTURE PLUME IS CUTOFF AND MAIN FORCING SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON 90KT
JET STREAK ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY. FEW INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PER WEB CAMS/ROAD REPORTS SINCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW PRECIPITATION WANING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOST SYNOPTIC SCALE ACTIVITY/LIFT
DONE BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT DRIER AIR INFILTRATING BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY TO SPRINKLES/VIRGA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AND BE BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT NEAR
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A
PLEASANT DAY...ALBEIT BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. FROST MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
ASSESS FOR HEADLINES. WEAK RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THE PLAINS AND
50S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WY MAY
PRODUCE SMALL POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN STILL LOOK TO BE FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL
GENERALLY BEING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING
TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN SD
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS63 KFSD 200851
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
351 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS FAIRLY WEAK RAIN SYSTEM IS WELL BEHAVED...OR PERHAPS ONE SHOULD
SAY THAT APPLIES TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...WITH THE WILD CARD AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE BEING THE EFFECT OF DRIER AIR BELOW MID LEVELS
AFFECTING WHEN AND WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE FSD AREA IS
RIGHT IN THE POP GRADIENT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WILL FALL IF IT DOES
RAIN HERE. THE PEAK OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF OVER OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
13-14Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...APPEARING TO HOLD STEADY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR A BIT
LONGER. IN ANY EVENT BY NOON THE DECREASE WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND
THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES
THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AND
THUS DO NOT SEE A STUBBORN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NATURALLY ENOUGH WILL BE WARMEST IN THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LOWS 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER
60S NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THE CLOUD THINNING AND DECREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING THIS EVENING AS IT ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING DRYING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO COOL BUT NOT FROSTY LEVELS.

WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHERLY...WITH A TREND TO STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CU IN OUR EAST THURSDAY IN AREA OF SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL DOMINANT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA IS LACKING
AND MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS LEAD WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STILL
CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TIMING A BIT.

UNFORTUNATELY STILL VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS IN FINER DETAILS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT EVOLVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TIMING AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH GULF BEGINNING TO OPEN UP BY LATE
SATURDAY...SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH LATEST 20/00Z ECMWF TRENDING A BIT
DRIER IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOLDS UP
THE MOISTURE RETURN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUPPORT OF THIS
TREND IN FUTURE RUNS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WORK TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS
AT THIS RANGE...SO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS FROM ANY ONE
PERIOD. WARMING TREND FROM CURRENT COOL SPELL ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S-LOWER 70S STILL THE BEST BET
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTLIER GFS DOES TRY TO SPREAD WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

LIGHT RAIN STILL TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORT WAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. BUT THE PRECIPITATION IS
HITTING A BRICK WALL OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AS IT MOVES INTO SD.
THEREFORE CONTINUED TO LEAVE THE KHON TAF SITE DRY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KFSD...WITH
BOTH SITES LIKELY REMAINING VFR. KSUX IS A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC.
THE NAM REALLY DROPS THE CEILINGS AT KSUX BEGINNING ABOUT 09Z
WEDNESDAY TO WHAT WOULD BE LOWER END MVFR TO UPPER END IFR. SO FAR
NOT SEEING IT...WITH THOSE TYPES OF CEILINGS BOTTLED UP IN FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL NEB AND LIKELY TO NOT MOVE THIS FAR NORTH. SO THE
KSUX FORECAST WAS BASED OFF OF THE RAP13 WHICH KEEPS VFR FOR KSUX
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AT KSUX WHICH COULD LAST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
GOING VFR IN THE EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 200851
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
351 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS FAIRLY WEAK RAIN SYSTEM IS WELL BEHAVED...OR PERHAPS ONE SHOULD
SAY THAT APPLIES TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...WITH THE WILD CARD AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE BEING THE EFFECT OF DRIER AIR BELOW MID LEVELS
AFFECTING WHEN AND WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE FSD AREA IS
RIGHT IN THE POP GRADIENT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WILL FALL IF IT DOES
RAIN HERE. THE PEAK OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF OVER OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
13-14Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...APPEARING TO HOLD STEADY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR A BIT
LONGER. IN ANY EVENT BY NOON THE DECREASE WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND
THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES
THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AND
THUS DO NOT SEE A STUBBORN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NATURALLY ENOUGH WILL BE WARMEST IN THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LOWS 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER
60S NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THE CLOUD THINNING AND DECREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING THIS EVENING AS IT ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING DRYING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO COOL BUT NOT FROSTY LEVELS.

WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHERLY...WITH A TREND TO STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CU IN OUR EAST THURSDAY IN AREA OF SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL DOMINANT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA IS LACKING
AND MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS LEAD WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STILL
CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TIMING A BIT.

UNFORTUNATELY STILL VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS IN FINER DETAILS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT EVOLVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TIMING AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH GULF BEGINNING TO OPEN UP BY LATE
SATURDAY...SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH LATEST 20/00Z ECMWF TRENDING A BIT
DRIER IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOLDS UP
THE MOISTURE RETURN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUPPORT OF THIS
TREND IN FUTURE RUNS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WORK TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS
AT THIS RANGE...SO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS FROM ANY ONE
PERIOD. WARMING TREND FROM CURRENT COOL SPELL ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S-LOWER 70S STILL THE BEST BET
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTLIER GFS DOES TRY TO SPREAD WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

LIGHT RAIN STILL TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORT WAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. BUT THE PRECIPITATION IS
HITTING A BRICK WALL OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AS IT MOVES INTO SD.
THEREFORE CONTINUED TO LEAVE THE KHON TAF SITE DRY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KFSD...WITH
BOTH SITES LIKELY REMAINING VFR. KSUX IS A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC.
THE NAM REALLY DROPS THE CEILINGS AT KSUX BEGINNING ABOUT 09Z
WEDNESDAY TO WHAT WOULD BE LOWER END MVFR TO UPPER END IFR. SO FAR
NOT SEEING IT...WITH THOSE TYPES OF CEILINGS BOTTLED UP IN FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL NEB AND LIKELY TO NOT MOVE THIS FAR NORTH. SO THE
KSUX FORECAST WAS BASED OFF OF THE RAP13 WHICH KEEPS VFR FOR KSUX
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AT KSUX WHICH COULD LAST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
GOING VFR IN THE EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 200851
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
351 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS FAIRLY WEAK RAIN SYSTEM IS WELL BEHAVED...OR PERHAPS ONE SHOULD
SAY THAT APPLIES TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...WITH THE WILD CARD AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE BEING THE EFFECT OF DRIER AIR BELOW MID LEVELS
AFFECTING WHEN AND WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE FSD AREA IS
RIGHT IN THE POP GRADIENT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WILL FALL IF IT DOES
RAIN HERE. THE PEAK OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF OVER OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
13-14Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...APPEARING TO HOLD STEADY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR A BIT
LONGER. IN ANY EVENT BY NOON THE DECREASE WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND
THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES
THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AND
THUS DO NOT SEE A STUBBORN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NATURALLY ENOUGH WILL BE WARMEST IN THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LOWS 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER
60S NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THE CLOUD THINNING AND DECREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING THIS EVENING AS IT ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING DRYING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO COOL BUT NOT FROSTY LEVELS.

WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHERLY...WITH A TREND TO STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CU IN OUR EAST THURSDAY IN AREA OF SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL DOMINANT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA IS LACKING
AND MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS LEAD WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STILL
CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TIMING A BIT.

UNFORTUNATELY STILL VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS IN FINER DETAILS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT EVOLVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TIMING AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH GULF BEGINNING TO OPEN UP BY LATE
SATURDAY...SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH LATEST 20/00Z ECMWF TRENDING A BIT
DRIER IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOLDS UP
THE MOISTURE RETURN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUPPORT OF THIS
TREND IN FUTURE RUNS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WORK TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS
AT THIS RANGE...SO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS FROM ANY ONE
PERIOD. WARMING TREND FROM CURRENT COOL SPELL ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S-LOWER 70S STILL THE BEST BET
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTLIER GFS DOES TRY TO SPREAD WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

LIGHT RAIN STILL TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORT WAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. BUT THE PRECIPITATION IS
HITTING A BRICK WALL OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AS IT MOVES INTO SD.
THEREFORE CONTINUED TO LEAVE THE KHON TAF SITE DRY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KFSD...WITH
BOTH SITES LIKELY REMAINING VFR. KSUX IS A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC.
THE NAM REALLY DROPS THE CEILINGS AT KSUX BEGINNING ABOUT 09Z
WEDNESDAY TO WHAT WOULD BE LOWER END MVFR TO UPPER END IFR. SO FAR
NOT SEEING IT...WITH THOSE TYPES OF CEILINGS BOTTLED UP IN FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL NEB AND LIKELY TO NOT MOVE THIS FAR NORTH. SO THE
KSUX FORECAST WAS BASED OFF OF THE RAP13 WHICH KEEPS VFR FOR KSUX
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AT KSUX WHICH COULD LAST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
GOING VFR IN THE EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 200851
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
351 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS FAIRLY WEAK RAIN SYSTEM IS WELL BEHAVED...OR PERHAPS ONE SHOULD
SAY THAT APPLIES TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...WITH THE WILD CARD AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE BEING THE EFFECT OF DRIER AIR BELOW MID LEVELS
AFFECTING WHEN AND WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE FSD AREA IS
RIGHT IN THE POP GRADIENT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WILL FALL IF IT DOES
RAIN HERE. THE PEAK OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF OVER OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
13-14Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...APPEARING TO HOLD STEADY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR A BIT
LONGER. IN ANY EVENT BY NOON THE DECREASE WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND
THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES
THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AND
THUS DO NOT SEE A STUBBORN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NATURALLY ENOUGH WILL BE WARMEST IN THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LOWS 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER
60S NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THE CLOUD THINNING AND DECREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING THIS EVENING AS IT ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING DRYING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO COOL BUT NOT FROSTY LEVELS.

WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHERLY...WITH A TREND TO STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CU IN OUR EAST THURSDAY IN AREA OF SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL DOMINANT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA IS LACKING
AND MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS LEAD WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STILL
CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TIMING A BIT.

UNFORTUNATELY STILL VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS IN FINER DETAILS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT EVOLVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TIMING AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH GULF BEGINNING TO OPEN UP BY LATE
SATURDAY...SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH LATEST 20/00Z ECMWF TRENDING A BIT
DRIER IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOLDS UP
THE MOISTURE RETURN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUPPORT OF THIS
TREND IN FUTURE RUNS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WORK TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS
AT THIS RANGE...SO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS FROM ANY ONE
PERIOD. WARMING TREND FROM CURRENT COOL SPELL ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S-LOWER 70S STILL THE BEST BET
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTLIER GFS DOES TRY TO SPREAD WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

LIGHT RAIN STILL TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORT WAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. BUT THE PRECIPITATION IS
HITTING A BRICK WALL OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AS IT MOVES INTO SD.
THEREFORE CONTINUED TO LEAVE THE KHON TAF SITE DRY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KFSD...WITH
BOTH SITES LIKELY REMAINING VFR. KSUX IS A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC.
THE NAM REALLY DROPS THE CEILINGS AT KSUX BEGINNING ABOUT 09Z
WEDNESDAY TO WHAT WOULD BE LOWER END MVFR TO UPPER END IFR. SO FAR
NOT SEEING IT...WITH THOSE TYPES OF CEILINGS BOTTLED UP IN FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL NEB AND LIKELY TO NOT MOVE THIS FAR NORTH. SO THE
KSUX FORECAST WAS BASED OFF OF THE RAP13 WHICH KEEPS VFR FOR KSUX
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AT KSUX WHICH COULD LAST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
GOING VFR IN THE EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 200851
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
351 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS FAIRLY WEAK RAIN SYSTEM IS WELL BEHAVED...OR PERHAPS ONE SHOULD
SAY THAT APPLIES TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...WITH THE WILD CARD AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE BEING THE EFFECT OF DRIER AIR BELOW MID LEVELS
AFFECTING WHEN AND WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE FSD AREA IS
RIGHT IN THE POP GRADIENT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WILL FALL IF IT DOES
RAIN HERE. THE PEAK OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF OVER OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
13-14Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...APPEARING TO HOLD STEADY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR A BIT
LONGER. IN ANY EVENT BY NOON THE DECREASE WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND
THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES
THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AND
THUS DO NOT SEE A STUBBORN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NATURALLY ENOUGH WILL BE WARMEST IN THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LOWS 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER
60S NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THE CLOUD THINNING AND DECREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING THIS EVENING AS IT ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING DRYING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO COOL BUT NOT FROSTY LEVELS.

WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHERLY...WITH A TREND TO STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CU IN OUR EAST THURSDAY IN AREA OF SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL DOMINANT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA IS LACKING
AND MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS LEAD WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STILL
CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TIMING A BIT.

UNFORTUNATELY STILL VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS IN FINER DETAILS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT EVOLVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TIMING AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH GULF BEGINNING TO OPEN UP BY LATE
SATURDAY...SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH LATEST 20/00Z ECMWF TRENDING A BIT
DRIER IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOLDS UP
THE MOISTURE RETURN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUPPORT OF THIS
TREND IN FUTURE RUNS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WORK TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS
AT THIS RANGE...SO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS FROM ANY ONE
PERIOD. WARMING TREND FROM CURRENT COOL SPELL ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S-LOWER 70S STILL THE BEST BET
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTLIER GFS DOES TRY TO SPREAD WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

LIGHT RAIN STILL TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORT WAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. BUT THE PRECIPITATION IS
HITTING A BRICK WALL OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AS IT MOVES INTO SD.
THEREFORE CONTINUED TO LEAVE THE KHON TAF SITE DRY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KFSD...WITH
BOTH SITES LIKELY REMAINING VFR. KSUX IS A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC.
THE NAM REALLY DROPS THE CEILINGS AT KSUX BEGINNING ABOUT 09Z
WEDNESDAY TO WHAT WOULD BE LOWER END MVFR TO UPPER END IFR. SO FAR
NOT SEEING IT...WITH THOSE TYPES OF CEILINGS BOTTLED UP IN FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL NEB AND LIKELY TO NOT MOVE THIS FAR NORTH. SO THE
KSUX FORECAST WAS BASED OFF OF THE RAP13 WHICH KEEPS VFR FOR KSUX
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AT KSUX WHICH COULD LAST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
GOING VFR IN THE EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KFSD 200851
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
351 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS FAIRLY WEAK RAIN SYSTEM IS WELL BEHAVED...OR PERHAPS ONE SHOULD
SAY THAT APPLIES TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...WITH THE WILD CARD AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE BEING THE EFFECT OF DRIER AIR BELOW MID LEVELS
AFFECTING WHEN AND WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE FSD AREA IS
RIGHT IN THE POP GRADIENT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WILL FALL IF IT DOES
RAIN HERE. THE PEAK OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF OVER OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
13-14Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...APPEARING TO HOLD STEADY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR A BIT
LONGER. IN ANY EVENT BY NOON THE DECREASE WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND
THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES
THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AND
THUS DO NOT SEE A STUBBORN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NATURALLY ENOUGH WILL BE WARMEST IN THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LOWS 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER
60S NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THE CLOUD THINNING AND DECREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING THIS EVENING AS IT ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING DRYING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO COOL BUT NOT FROSTY LEVELS.

WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHERLY...WITH A TREND TO STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CU IN OUR EAST THURSDAY IN AREA OF SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL DOMINANT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA IS LACKING
AND MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS LEAD WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STILL
CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TIMING A BIT.

UNFORTUNATELY STILL VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS IN FINER DETAILS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT EVOLVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TIMING AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH GULF BEGINNING TO OPEN UP BY LATE
SATURDAY...SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH LATEST 20/00Z ECMWF TRENDING A BIT
DRIER IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOLDS UP
THE MOISTURE RETURN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUPPORT OF THIS
TREND IN FUTURE RUNS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WORK TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS
AT THIS RANGE...SO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS FROM ANY ONE
PERIOD. WARMING TREND FROM CURRENT COOL SPELL ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S-LOWER 70S STILL THE BEST BET
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTLIER GFS DOES TRY TO SPREAD WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

LIGHT RAIN STILL TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORT WAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. BUT THE PRECIPITATION IS
HITTING A BRICK WALL OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AS IT MOVES INTO SD.
THEREFORE CONTINUED TO LEAVE THE KHON TAF SITE DRY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KFSD...WITH
BOTH SITES LIKELY REMAINING VFR. KSUX IS A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC.
THE NAM REALLY DROPS THE CEILINGS AT KSUX BEGINNING ABOUT 09Z
WEDNESDAY TO WHAT WOULD BE LOWER END MVFR TO UPPER END IFR. SO FAR
NOT SEEING IT...WITH THOSE TYPES OF CEILINGS BOTTLED UP IN FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL NEB AND LIKELY TO NOT MOVE THIS FAR NORTH. SO THE
KSUX FORECAST WAS BASED OFF OF THE RAP13 WHICH KEEPS VFR FOR KSUX
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AT KSUX WHICH COULD LAST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
GOING VFR IN THE EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MJ




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