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000
FXUS63 KABR 092108
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
308 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS SNOW CHCS/AMOUNTS FOR WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A STRONG WEST CONUS
RIDGE...AND DOWNSTREAM EAST CONUS TROF...IE...POSITIVE PNA PATTERN.
THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
HOWEVER...WAVES WITHIN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION WITH CONSEQUENT BOUTS OF PCPN. ONE DECENT SYSTEM WITH A
STRONG SFC AND WAVE ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS...THE SMALL AMOUNT OF
PREDICTED QPF COULD NET ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN CWA.  WILL ALSO MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF -ZL BEHIND MAIN
BAND OF SNOW WHERE SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT SUCH ACTIVITY.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  A RELATIVELY LARGE
TEMPERATURES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BACK DOORS THE EAST.  EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF THE ABERDEEN
FORECAST HIGH...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY UNDER FORECAST THE LAST
FEW DAYS WITHIN GOOD MIXING ENVIRONMENTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH A DRY SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR WAA TO DEVELOP.
THE WAA...ALONG WITH A GOOD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BRING PCPN INTO THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST BETTER LLM WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. THE GFS ALSO SUGGEST ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...MUCH WARMER TEMPS AT 925 MB
WILL FILTER INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST. THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
0C...925 MB TEMPS REMAIN OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME MVFR LATER THIS EVENING
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE LIGHT SNOW. SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT PIR AND MBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD



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000
FXUS63 KUNR 092042
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
142 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

1930Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A N/S ORIENTED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
30S ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
RADAR REVEALS SOME LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE EASTERN-MOST COUNTIES IN
THE CWA...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS NOT BEEN
REACHING THE GROUND WITH ONLY A FEW STATIONS RECORDING TRACE
AMOUNTS.

TONIGHT...BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA. COULD HAVE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE 06Z. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND WE WILL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT TRICKY...AS WARMEST
AIR ALOFT IS OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...AND MODELS INDICATE
DECENT CAA AT 850MB AND 700MB DURING THE DAY. CURRENT THINKING IS
AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
PROBABLY MIX OUT THE INVERSION IN THE MORNING AND EASILY REACH INTO
THE 50S FOR HIGHS...WHILE THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS MAY TAKE A BIT
LONGER TO MIX DOWN AND WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS PROG A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH SURFACE WINDS
SWITCHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE EAST. SOME MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A STRATUS DECK JUST OFF THE SURFACE A COUPLE
OF THOUSAND FEET IN DEPTH...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE SOME
FOG IN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HOLD
OFF ON PUTTING IT IN THE GRIDS GIVEN SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR FUTURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A LL BAROCLINIC ZONE WAVERING ACROSS THE REGION WITH MILD CONDS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA....AND MUCH COOLER CONDS OVER
EASTERN AREAS. MID/LEVEL IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA
WILL FLUCTUATE THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME BOUTS OF
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP EASTERN HALF. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT
THROUGH THE RIDGE SAT-SUN...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.
HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC
AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WHILE PAC FLOW SPREADS FURTHER EAST INTO THE
MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM LEMMON TO WHITE RIVER
AND EAST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 092042
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
142 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

1930Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A N/S ORIENTED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
30S ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
RADAR REVEALS SOME LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE EASTERN-MOST COUNTIES IN
THE CWA...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS NOT BEEN
REACHING THE GROUND WITH ONLY A FEW STATIONS RECORDING TRACE
AMOUNTS.

TONIGHT...BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA. COULD HAVE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE 06Z. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND WE WILL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT TRICKY...AS WARMEST
AIR ALOFT IS OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...AND MODELS INDICATE
DECENT CAA AT 850MB AND 700MB DURING THE DAY. CURRENT THINKING IS
AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
PROBABLY MIX OUT THE INVERSION IN THE MORNING AND EASILY REACH INTO
THE 50S FOR HIGHS...WHILE THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS MAY TAKE A BIT
LONGER TO MIX DOWN AND WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS PROG A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH SURFACE WINDS
SWITCHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE EAST. SOME MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A STRATUS DECK JUST OFF THE SURFACE A COUPLE
OF THOUSAND FEET IN DEPTH...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE SOME
FOG IN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HOLD
OFF ON PUTTING IT IN THE GRIDS GIVEN SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR FUTURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A LL BAROCLINIC ZONE WAVERING ACROSS THE REGION WITH MILD CONDS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA....AND MUCH COOLER CONDS OVER
EASTERN AREAS. MID/LEVEL IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA
WILL FLUCTUATE THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME BOUTS OF
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP EASTERN HALF. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT
THROUGH THE RIDGE SAT-SUN...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.
HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC
AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WHILE PAC FLOW SPREADS FURTHER EAST INTO THE
MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM LEMMON TO WHITE RIVER
AND EAST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 092042
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
142 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

1930Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A N/S ORIENTED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
30S ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
RADAR REVEALS SOME LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE EASTERN-MOST COUNTIES IN
THE CWA...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS NOT BEEN
REACHING THE GROUND WITH ONLY A FEW STATIONS RECORDING TRACE
AMOUNTS.

TONIGHT...BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA. COULD HAVE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE 06Z. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND WE WILL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT TRICKY...AS WARMEST
AIR ALOFT IS OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...AND MODELS INDICATE
DECENT CAA AT 850MB AND 700MB DURING THE DAY. CURRENT THINKING IS
AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
PROBABLY MIX OUT THE INVERSION IN THE MORNING AND EASILY REACH INTO
THE 50S FOR HIGHS...WHILE THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS MAY TAKE A BIT
LONGER TO MIX DOWN AND WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS PROG A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH SURFACE WINDS
SWITCHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE EAST. SOME MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A STRATUS DECK JUST OFF THE SURFACE A COUPLE
OF THOUSAND FEET IN DEPTH...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE SOME
FOG IN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HOLD
OFF ON PUTTING IT IN THE GRIDS GIVEN SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR FUTURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A LL BAROCLINIC ZONE WAVERING ACROSS THE REGION WITH MILD CONDS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA....AND MUCH COOLER CONDS OVER
EASTERN AREAS. MID/LEVEL IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA
WILL FLUCTUATE THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME BOUTS OF
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP EASTERN HALF. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT
THROUGH THE RIDGE SAT-SUN...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.
HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC
AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WHILE PAC FLOW SPREADS FURTHER EAST INTO THE
MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM LEMMON TO WHITE RIVER
AND EAST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC



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000
FXUS63 KFSD 092041
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
241 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE INCREASING CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL BEGIN ADVANCING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT...NEARING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A MID
LEVEL WAVE DROPS SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA...MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH BROAD BUT WEAK LIFT AND
A MODEST FORCING...A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW NOSES INTO CENTRAL SD LATE
TONIGHT THEN SPREADS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT IN OUR FAR WEST...THEN SPREADS
INTO THE I29 CORRIDOR AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH MID-MORNING AND ACROSS
OUR EASTERN HALF LATE MORNING. THE LIGHT SNOW EXITS WEST TO EAST IN
THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WEST OF THE JAMES WHERE
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...MAY NOT SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ELSEWHERE...ACCUMULATIONS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND HALF INCH TO 2 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE GREATEST SNOW CHANCES LIE...EXPECT SOME
FAIRLY HIGH RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15:1 TO 20:1. ALONG THE WESTERN
FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SNOW WILL BE MUCH LESS EFFICIENT.

WITH THE THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA...BOTH LOW AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY GREATLY. EXPECT LOWS TO PLUMMET TO A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF ZERO IN OUR EXTREME EAST...WHILE WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN BORDER AND INCREASING MID CLOUDS
WILL HOLD LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S IN OUR WEST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME NON
DIURNAL READINGS LATE TONIGHT IN THIS AREA. SIMILARLY....HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE AND
IOWA GREAT LAKES...TO THE MID 30S IN GREGORY COUNTY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

AFTER LIGHT SNOW EXITS QUICKLY SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE CHILLY...BUT QUIET FOR MOST AREAS. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF WEDNESDAYS
SYSTEM...WITH ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  MID-LVL LIFT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM...WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE ON
THURSDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN UPPER SUPPORT PROVIDED BY LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING JET STREAK CROSSING THE ROCKIES. WHILE
MODEL QPF REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MODELS HAVE FOCUSED IN ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED LIGHT QPF OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.  SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...LINGERING INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ECMWF/GFS DIFFER A BIT ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLDEST AIR ON FRIDAY...BUT PREFER THE SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS.
THAT SAID...AREA SETTING UP FOR A VERY COLD START TO SATURDAY
MORNING....ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES. WITH MID-LVL WARM
ADVECTION QUICKLY DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AND A LIKELY INCREASE IN
CIRRUS IN THE NW FLOW...SOME CONCERNS THAT WESTERN ZONES MAY BE TOO
COLD. IF FORECAST DOES MATERIALIZE...ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS
MAY BE FELT OVER PARTS OF MN/IA/SD COUNTIES INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY
STRONG WAVE EXITS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ENTERS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...AND THEREFORE
LIFTS WARM ADVECTION SNOW BAND QUICKLY THROUGH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA. WITH A WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION PREFERRED...FEEL THAT THIS SNOW
MAY STALL CLOSER TO THE CWA...AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK OF A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT THE TRACK IS VERY UNCERTAIN ATTM.

BEHIND THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM...TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WARMUP
INTO NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MID
CLOUDS EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN DROPPING
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL
DROP VISIBILITY TO MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR AT TIMES LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 092041
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
241 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE INCREASING CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL BEGIN ADVANCING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT...NEARING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A MID
LEVEL WAVE DROPS SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA...MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH BROAD BUT WEAK LIFT AND
A MODEST FORCING...A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW NOSES INTO CENTRAL SD LATE
TONIGHT THEN SPREADS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT IN OUR FAR WEST...THEN SPREADS
INTO THE I29 CORRIDOR AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH MID-MORNING AND ACROSS
OUR EASTERN HALF LATE MORNING. THE LIGHT SNOW EXITS WEST TO EAST IN
THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WEST OF THE JAMES WHERE
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...MAY NOT SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ELSEWHERE...ACCUMULATIONS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND HALF INCH TO 2 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE GREATEST SNOW CHANCES LIE...EXPECT SOME
FAIRLY HIGH RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15:1 TO 20:1. ALONG THE WESTERN
FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SNOW WILL BE MUCH LESS EFFICIENT.

WITH THE THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA...BOTH LOW AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY GREATLY. EXPECT LOWS TO PLUMMET TO A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF ZERO IN OUR EXTREME EAST...WHILE WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN BORDER AND INCREASING MID CLOUDS
WILL HOLD LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S IN OUR WEST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME NON
DIURNAL READINGS LATE TONIGHT IN THIS AREA. SIMILARLY....HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE AND
IOWA GREAT LAKES...TO THE MID 30S IN GREGORY COUNTY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

AFTER LIGHT SNOW EXITS QUICKLY SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE CHILLY...BUT QUIET FOR MOST AREAS. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF WEDNESDAYS
SYSTEM...WITH ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  MID-LVL LIFT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM...WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE ON
THURSDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN UPPER SUPPORT PROVIDED BY LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING JET STREAK CROSSING THE ROCKIES. WHILE
MODEL QPF REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MODELS HAVE FOCUSED IN ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED LIGHT QPF OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.  SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...LINGERING INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ECMWF/GFS DIFFER A BIT ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLDEST AIR ON FRIDAY...BUT PREFER THE SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS.
THAT SAID...AREA SETTING UP FOR A VERY COLD START TO SATURDAY
MORNING....ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES. WITH MID-LVL WARM
ADVECTION QUICKLY DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AND A LIKELY INCREASE IN
CIRRUS IN THE NW FLOW...SOME CONCERNS THAT WESTERN ZONES MAY BE TOO
COLD. IF FORECAST DOES MATERIALIZE...ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS
MAY BE FELT OVER PARTS OF MN/IA/SD COUNTIES INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY
STRONG WAVE EXITS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ENTERS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...AND THEREFORE
LIFTS WARM ADVECTION SNOW BAND QUICKLY THROUGH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA. WITH A WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION PREFERRED...FEEL THAT THIS SNOW
MAY STALL CLOSER TO THE CWA...AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK OF A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT THE TRACK IS VERY UNCERTAIN ATTM.

BEHIND THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM...TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WARMUP
INTO NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MID
CLOUDS EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN DROPPING
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL
DROP VISIBILITY TO MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR AT TIMES LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 092041
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
241 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE INCREASING CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL BEGIN ADVANCING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT...NEARING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A MID
LEVEL WAVE DROPS SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA...MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH BROAD BUT WEAK LIFT AND
A MODEST FORCING...A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW NOSES INTO CENTRAL SD LATE
TONIGHT THEN SPREADS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT IN OUR FAR WEST...THEN SPREADS
INTO THE I29 CORRIDOR AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH MID-MORNING AND ACROSS
OUR EASTERN HALF LATE MORNING. THE LIGHT SNOW EXITS WEST TO EAST IN
THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WEST OF THE JAMES WHERE
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...MAY NOT SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ELSEWHERE...ACCUMULATIONS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND HALF INCH TO 2 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE GREATEST SNOW CHANCES LIE...EXPECT SOME
FAIRLY HIGH RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15:1 TO 20:1. ALONG THE WESTERN
FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SNOW WILL BE MUCH LESS EFFICIENT.

WITH THE THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA...BOTH LOW AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY GREATLY. EXPECT LOWS TO PLUMMET TO A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF ZERO IN OUR EXTREME EAST...WHILE WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN BORDER AND INCREASING MID CLOUDS
WILL HOLD LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S IN OUR WEST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME NON
DIURNAL READINGS LATE TONIGHT IN THIS AREA. SIMILARLY....HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE AND
IOWA GREAT LAKES...TO THE MID 30S IN GREGORY COUNTY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

AFTER LIGHT SNOW EXITS QUICKLY SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE CHILLY...BUT QUIET FOR MOST AREAS. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF WEDNESDAYS
SYSTEM...WITH ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  MID-LVL LIFT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM...WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE ON
THURSDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN UPPER SUPPORT PROVIDED BY LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING JET STREAK CROSSING THE ROCKIES. WHILE
MODEL QPF REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MODELS HAVE FOCUSED IN ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED LIGHT QPF OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.  SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...LINGERING INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ECMWF/GFS DIFFER A BIT ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLDEST AIR ON FRIDAY...BUT PREFER THE SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS.
THAT SAID...AREA SETTING UP FOR A VERY COLD START TO SATURDAY
MORNING....ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES. WITH MID-LVL WARM
ADVECTION QUICKLY DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AND A LIKELY INCREASE IN
CIRRUS IN THE NW FLOW...SOME CONCERNS THAT WESTERN ZONES MAY BE TOO
COLD. IF FORECAST DOES MATERIALIZE...ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS
MAY BE FELT OVER PARTS OF MN/IA/SD COUNTIES INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY
STRONG WAVE EXITS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ENTERS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...AND THEREFORE
LIFTS WARM ADVECTION SNOW BAND QUICKLY THROUGH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA. WITH A WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION PREFERRED...FEEL THAT THIS SNOW
MAY STALL CLOSER TO THE CWA...AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK OF A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT THE TRACK IS VERY UNCERTAIN ATTM.

BEHIND THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM...TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WARMUP
INTO NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MID
CLOUDS EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN DROPPING
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL
DROP VISIBILITY TO MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR AT TIMES LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 091747
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1147 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

STILL SEEING SPORADIC WIND GUSTS SPIKE UP TO 35-40KT IN PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WITH GENERAL
DOWNWARD TREND AND STRONGER WINDS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED...WILL LET
REMAINING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THESE LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER...AS FAVORABLE MIXING WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST
WINDS TO REMAIN BREEZY IN 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE UNTIL SUNSET. NEUTRAL
TO WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALSO PERSISTS IN OUR EAST THROUGH THE DAY...
SO TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY REBOUND INTO THE MID TEENS FOR HIGHS THERE
TODAY. SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO
LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT IN OUR WEST...THOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH A HIGH NEAR 30.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO INCREASING THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER TONIGHT...AS MID LEVEL
WAVE DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR/WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT TO SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE
OVER THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK...THOUGH EASTERN AREAS LIKELY TO SEE A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS
AS CLOUDS WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY THIN AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
INTO THAT AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. DEEPEST SATURATION PRIOR TO 12Z
APPEARS TO REMAIN WEST OF I-29 CORRIDOR...AND WILL LARGELY CONFINE
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH TO THESE
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE DAY...WHILE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WANDERS FIRST NORTHEAST...THEN SETTLES IN WAKE OF
WAVE BACK A BIT SOUTHWEST BY EVENING. BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE FEATURES
A FAIRLY DECENT SLOPE...AND CROSS SECTIONS ACTUALLY SUGGEST THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF WEAK INSTABILITY ABOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
AND EAST OF A KHON-KFSD-KCIN LINE TO AID IN FOCUSING/NARROWING THE
BAND A BIT MORE. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GENERATED BY INDUCED CROSS
FRONTAL FLOW AS JET IMPULSE SLIPS PAST THE AREA. HOWEVER...OVERALL
SIGNATURE FOR LIFT FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK...SO SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF
HAND. THERMAL PROFILES ALSO WOULD INDICATE THAT PROSPECT FOR SUPER
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION IS PROBABLY OUT OF THE QUESTION...WITH MOST
OF THE DENDRITIC TEMPS INVOLVED TOWARD THE EAST...AND TENDENCY WILL
BE FOR LAYER TO MODERATE JUST TO THE WARM SIDE OF THE BEST THERMAL
RANGE. WEST OF THE DEEPER SATURATION...EVEN POSSIBLE THAT WILL LOSE
THE NECESSARY DEPTH TO OBTAIN ICE DEVELOPMENT...AND COULD BE LOOKING
AT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARD THE JAMES VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. THE
LIKELY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL AVERAGE 13-15 TO 1...HIGHER TOWARD
THE EAST. BEST OF THE DEEPER FORCING WILL OCCUR THRU 18Z-21Z...AT
WHICH POINT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE A BIT MORE AT ODDS WITH
THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH EXPECTED DECREASE IN OVERALL SNOW COVERAGE
OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN...LIKELY TO FIND BAND OF AN INCH OR LITTLE
MORE ACROSS THE MID/EASTERN CWA.

SURFACE TROUGH IN MOST SOLUTIONS PUSHES INTO LOWER BRULE AREAS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A STRONG MODERATION
TO TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WHILE ECMWF STANDS FIRMLY ALONE
IN KEEPING THE COLDER AIR LOCKED IN. HAVE SIDED MORE TOWARD THE
MAJORITY...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE BEHAVIOR OF THE NEAR SURFACE
THERMAL BOUNDARY.

SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COOLER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC RIDGE
OOZES TOWARD THE EASTERN CWA. WITH TEMPS COOLING TOWARD VERY
DENDRITIC RANGE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET SCATTERED FLURRIES
AS LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD. THURSDAY A QUIET DAY
AS FLOW WORKS TO TURN AROUND TOWARD SOUTHERLY. ANOTHER WAVE IN THE
FRANTIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE...THE LOCATION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CONTINUES TO
WAVER SPATIALLY BOTH BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODEL RUNS AND SUCCESSIVE
RUNS OF THE SAME MODEL...THUS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL
IS HARD TO PLACE AT THIS TIME. MOST ARE FOCUSING ON THE THURSDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...SO FOR NOW WILL BROAD BRUSH IN SOME LOWER POPS...
FAVORING MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE STRONGER MID
LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING IS ADVERTISED.

AS IN THE CASE OF THE WEDNESDAY WAVE...THIS WAVE WILL ALSO ACT TO A
GREATER DEGREE TO AMPLIFY THE PATTERN...DRIVING A STRONG ARCTIC
ANTICYCLONE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE A GREAT DEAL ON
FRIDAY...LIKELY STEADY TO FALLING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. BITTERLY
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING...WITH PERHAPS HIGH CLOUDS AND
A LESSER SNOW COVER KEEPING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FROM
REACHING TEMPS FROM CRASHING WELL BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS COULD
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
EAST. PRESENCE OF ARCTIC RIDGE WILL KEEP SATURDAY TEMPS STRUGGLING
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EAST.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF THE ARCTIC RIDGE DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH PROSPECT OF AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS AND VERY COLD INTERVENING TEMPERATURES... WILL
BE A SNEAKY SET UP FOR ELEVATED LOCATIONS FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO
HIGHER LOCALES OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA TO DEVELOP
SOME BLOWING SNOW.

ANOTHER TROUGH PROGRESSING OUT OF THE PACIFIC THIS TIME AROUND WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LEADING WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY
PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH/EAST...WITH BETTER CHANCES ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT
OF A CHALLENGE TO EARLY PRECIP PRODUCTION...BUT BY SUNDAY ENOUGH
DYNAMIC FORCING TO BRING UP SOME CHANCE POPS NORTH/EAST.

THE OVERALL SIGNAL IS FOR THE LARGER SCALE AMPLIFICATION TO BREAK
DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING A MORE ZONAL PUSH OF MILDER AIR TO
SURGE ACROSS THE REGION. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE HESITANT...BUT
EVENTUALLY GETS THERE LATER TUE AND WED. A BIT CONCERNED THAT A FEW
THINGS COULD IMPEDE THE STRONGER WARMING SIGNAL FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE SOLUTION TRENDS TOWARD THE ECMWF.
OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF ENSEMBLE...SO FOR
NOW...HAVE STUCK CLOSER TO THE BLEND...WITH SMALL HEDGE DOWN IN THE
DEEPER SNOWCOVERED AREAS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MID
CLOUDS EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN DROPPING
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL
DROP VISIBILITY TO MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR AT TIMES LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KABR 091740 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1140 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP
TEMPS A TOUCH IN THE EAST...OTHERWISE ITS STATUS QUO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED ACROSS THE CWA GENERATING SOME CLOUD COVER
AND FLURRIES. A VERY SUBTLE WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA LATER TODAY
MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO GENERATE POCKETS OF SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT 1 TO 3 MICROBARS
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.  A MORE ROBUST NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE CLOSER TO 4 TO 8 MICROBARS OF LIFT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS IT DROPS OUT OF CANADA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
PROFILES DO SUPPORT THE LOSS OF DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SATURATION
WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY DURING THE DAY...AND WITH SATURATION BELOW
AROUND 700MB...THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING ACROSS THE
CWA...ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIMITED IN RANGE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE WEST RIVER WHICH WILL BREAK INTO SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE US THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO WESTERN CANADA WITH A VERY
LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
EASTERN US. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVES COMING ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FIRST WAVE COMES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT TRACKING ALONG A
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING ARCTIC FRONT BRINGING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW. THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR BOTH DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST WITH
WARMER AIR RETURNING ON THE BACKSIDE FOR LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS SHOW A
SECOND STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC AND ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME WAA LIGHT
SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW WITH THE WAVE
ITSELF. THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME MVFR LATER THIS EVENING
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE LIGHT SNOW. SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT PIR AND MBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SD



000
FXUS63 KABR 091740 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1140 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP
TEMPS A TOUCH IN THE EAST...OTHERWISE ITS STATUS QUO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED ACROSS THE CWA GENERATING SOME CLOUD COVER
AND FLURRIES. A VERY SUBTLE WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA LATER TODAY
MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO GENERATE POCKETS OF SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT 1 TO 3 MICROBARS
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.  A MORE ROBUST NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE CLOSER TO 4 TO 8 MICROBARS OF LIFT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS IT DROPS OUT OF CANADA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
PROFILES DO SUPPORT THE LOSS OF DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SATURATION
WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY DURING THE DAY...AND WITH SATURATION BELOW
AROUND 700MB...THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING ACROSS THE
CWA...ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIMITED IN RANGE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE WEST RIVER WHICH WILL BREAK INTO SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE US THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO WESTERN CANADA WITH A VERY
LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
EASTERN US. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVES COMING ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FIRST WAVE COMES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT TRACKING ALONG A
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING ARCTIC FRONT BRINGING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW. THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR BOTH DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST WITH
WARMER AIR RETURNING ON THE BACKSIDE FOR LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS SHOW A
SECOND STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC AND ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME WAA LIGHT
SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW WITH THE WAVE
ITSELF. THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME MVFR LATER THIS EVENING
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE LIGHT SNOW. SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT PIR AND MBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SD




000
FXUS63 KABR 091740 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1140 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP
TEMPS A TOUCH IN THE EAST...OTHERWISE ITS STATUS QUO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED ACROSS THE CWA GENERATING SOME CLOUD COVER
AND FLURRIES. A VERY SUBTLE WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA LATER TODAY
MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO GENERATE POCKETS OF SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT 1 TO 3 MICROBARS
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.  A MORE ROBUST NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE CLOSER TO 4 TO 8 MICROBARS OF LIFT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS IT DROPS OUT OF CANADA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
PROFILES DO SUPPORT THE LOSS OF DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SATURATION
WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY DURING THE DAY...AND WITH SATURATION BELOW
AROUND 700MB...THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING ACROSS THE
CWA...ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIMITED IN RANGE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE WEST RIVER WHICH WILL BREAK INTO SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE US THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO WESTERN CANADA WITH A VERY
LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
EASTERN US. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVES COMING ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FIRST WAVE COMES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT TRACKING ALONG A
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING ARCTIC FRONT BRINGING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW. THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR BOTH DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST WITH
WARMER AIR RETURNING ON THE BACKSIDE FOR LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS SHOW A
SECOND STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC AND ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME WAA LIGHT
SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW WITH THE WAVE
ITSELF. THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME MVFR LATER THIS EVENING
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE LIGHT SNOW. SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT PIR AND MBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SD




000
FXUS63 KUNR 091734
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1034 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH A
120 KT UPPER JET BETWEEN THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS CENTRAL SD ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WINDS ARE
LIGHT..AND TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SD
AND THE NORTHERN HILLS. CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA. PROFILES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL SD...SO HAVE ADDED MENTION IN GRIDS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...TO THE
UPPER 40S FARTHER WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE LOW
SLIDES INTO SD...AND WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST ALONG THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS.
COOLER AIR BEGINS PUSHING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CREATE AMPLIFIED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA COOLING DOWN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MILD AND DRY NW FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AS THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH DUE TO FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS TO ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM LEMMON TO WHITE RIVER
AND EAST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 091734
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1034 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH A
120 KT UPPER JET BETWEEN THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS CENTRAL SD ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WINDS ARE
LIGHT..AND TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SD
AND THE NORTHERN HILLS. CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA. PROFILES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL SD...SO HAVE ADDED MENTION IN GRIDS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...TO THE
UPPER 40S FARTHER WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE LOW
SLIDES INTO SD...AND WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST ALONG THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS.
COOLER AIR BEGINS PUSHING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CREATE AMPLIFIED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA COOLING DOWN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MILD AND DRY NW FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AS THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH DUE TO FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS TO ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM LEMMON TO WHITE RIVER
AND EAST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 091734
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1034 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH A
120 KT UPPER JET BETWEEN THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS CENTRAL SD ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WINDS ARE
LIGHT..AND TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SD
AND THE NORTHERN HILLS. CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA. PROFILES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL SD...SO HAVE ADDED MENTION IN GRIDS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...TO THE
UPPER 40S FARTHER WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE LOW
SLIDES INTO SD...AND WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST ALONG THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS.
COOLER AIR BEGINS PUSHING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CREATE AMPLIFIED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA COOLING DOWN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MILD AND DRY NW FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AS THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH DUE TO FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS TO ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM LEMMON TO WHITE RIVER
AND EAST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KABR 091615 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1015 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP
TEMPS A TOUCH IN THE EAST...OTHERWISE ITS STATUS QUO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED ACROSS THE CWA GENERATING SOME CLOUD COVER
AND FLURRIES. A VERY SUBTLE WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA LATER TODAY
MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO GENERATE POCKETS OF SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT 1 TO 3 MICROBARS
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.  A MORE ROBUST NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE CLOSER TO 4 TO 8 MICROBARS OF LIFT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS IT DROPS OUT OF CANADA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
PROFILES DO SUPPORT THE LOSS OF DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SATURATION
WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY DURING THE DAY...AND WITH SATURATION BELOW
AROUND 700MB...THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING ACROSS THE
CWA...ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIMITED IN RANGE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE WEST RIVER WHICH WILL BREAK INTO SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE US THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO WESTERN CANADA WITH A VERY
LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
EASTERN US. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVES COMING ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FIRST WAVE COMES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT TRACKING ALONG A
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING ARCTIC FRONT BRINGING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW. THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR BOTH DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST WITH
WARMER AIR RETURNING ON THE BACKSIDE FOR LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS SHOW A
SECOND STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC AND ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME WAA LIGHT
SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW WITH THE WAVE
ITSELF. THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WAA LOW VFR/OCNL MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL SD
POSSIBLY AFFECTING PIR AND MBG. THIS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT POSSIBLY AFFECTING ABR AND ATY BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT PIR AND MBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR




000
FXUS63 KABR 091615 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1015 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP
TEMPS A TOUCH IN THE EAST...OTHERWISE ITS STATUS QUO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED ACROSS THE CWA GENERATING SOME CLOUD COVER
AND FLURRIES. A VERY SUBTLE WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA LATER TODAY
MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO GENERATE POCKETS OF SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT 1 TO 3 MICROBARS
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.  A MORE ROBUST NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE CLOSER TO 4 TO 8 MICROBARS OF LIFT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS IT DROPS OUT OF CANADA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
PROFILES DO SUPPORT THE LOSS OF DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SATURATION
WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY DURING THE DAY...AND WITH SATURATION BELOW
AROUND 700MB...THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING ACROSS THE
CWA...ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIMITED IN RANGE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE WEST RIVER WHICH WILL BREAK INTO SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE US THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO WESTERN CANADA WITH A VERY
LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
EASTERN US. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVES COMING ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FIRST WAVE COMES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT TRACKING ALONG A
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING ARCTIC FRONT BRINGING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW. THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR BOTH DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST WITH
WARMER AIR RETURNING ON THE BACKSIDE FOR LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS SHOW A
SECOND STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC AND ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME WAA LIGHT
SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW WITH THE WAVE
ITSELF. THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WAA LOW VFR/OCNL MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL SD
POSSIBLY AFFECTING PIR AND MBG. THIS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT POSSIBLY AFFECTING ABR AND ATY BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT PIR AND MBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR




000
FXUS63 KABR 091615 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1015 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP
TEMPS A TOUCH IN THE EAST...OTHERWISE ITS STATUS QUO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED ACROSS THE CWA GENERATING SOME CLOUD COVER
AND FLURRIES. A VERY SUBTLE WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA LATER TODAY
MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO GENERATE POCKETS OF SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT 1 TO 3 MICROBARS
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.  A MORE ROBUST NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE CLOSER TO 4 TO 8 MICROBARS OF LIFT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS IT DROPS OUT OF CANADA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
PROFILES DO SUPPORT THE LOSS OF DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SATURATION
WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY DURING THE DAY...AND WITH SATURATION BELOW
AROUND 700MB...THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING ACROSS THE
CWA...ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIMITED IN RANGE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE WEST RIVER WHICH WILL BREAK INTO SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE US THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO WESTERN CANADA WITH A VERY
LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
EASTERN US. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVES COMING ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FIRST WAVE COMES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT TRACKING ALONG A
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING ARCTIC FRONT BRINGING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW. THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR BOTH DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST WITH
WARMER AIR RETURNING ON THE BACKSIDE FOR LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS SHOW A
SECOND STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC AND ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME WAA LIGHT
SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW WITH THE WAVE
ITSELF. THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WAA LOW VFR/OCNL MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL SD
POSSIBLY AFFECTING PIR AND MBG. THIS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT POSSIBLY AFFECTING ABR AND ATY BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT PIR AND MBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR




000
FXUS63 KABR 091615 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1015 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP
TEMPS A TOUCH IN THE EAST...OTHERWISE ITS STATUS QUO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED ACROSS THE CWA GENERATING SOME CLOUD COVER
AND FLURRIES. A VERY SUBTLE WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA LATER TODAY
MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO GENERATE POCKETS OF SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT 1 TO 3 MICROBARS
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.  A MORE ROBUST NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE CLOSER TO 4 TO 8 MICROBARS OF LIFT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS IT DROPS OUT OF CANADA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
PROFILES DO SUPPORT THE LOSS OF DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SATURATION
WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY DURING THE DAY...AND WITH SATURATION BELOW
AROUND 700MB...THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING ACROSS THE
CWA...ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIMITED IN RANGE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE WEST RIVER WHICH WILL BREAK INTO SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE US THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO WESTERN CANADA WITH A VERY
LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
EASTERN US. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVES COMING ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FIRST WAVE COMES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT TRACKING ALONG A
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING ARCTIC FRONT BRINGING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW. THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR BOTH DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST WITH
WARMER AIR RETURNING ON THE BACKSIDE FOR LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS SHOW A
SECOND STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC AND ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME WAA LIGHT
SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW WITH THE WAVE
ITSELF. THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WAA LOW VFR/OCNL MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL SD
POSSIBLY AFFECTING PIR AND MBG. THIS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT POSSIBLY AFFECTING ABR AND ATY BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT PIR AND MBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR




000
FXUS63 KABR 091615 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1015 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP
TEMPS A TOUCH IN THE EAST...OTHERWISE ITS STATUS QUO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED ACROSS THE CWA GENERATING SOME CLOUD COVER
AND FLURRIES. A VERY SUBTLE WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA LATER TODAY
MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO GENERATE POCKETS OF SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT 1 TO 3 MICROBARS
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.  A MORE ROBUST NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE CLOSER TO 4 TO 8 MICROBARS OF LIFT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS IT DROPS OUT OF CANADA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
PROFILES DO SUPPORT THE LOSS OF DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SATURATION
WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY DURING THE DAY...AND WITH SATURATION BELOW
AROUND 700MB...THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING ACROSS THE
CWA...ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIMITED IN RANGE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE WEST RIVER WHICH WILL BREAK INTO SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE US THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO WESTERN CANADA WITH A VERY
LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
EASTERN US. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVES COMING ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FIRST WAVE COMES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT TRACKING ALONG A
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING ARCTIC FRONT BRINGING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW. THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR BOTH DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST WITH
WARMER AIR RETURNING ON THE BACKSIDE FOR LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS SHOW A
SECOND STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC AND ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME WAA LIGHT
SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW WITH THE WAVE
ITSELF. THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WAA LOW VFR/OCNL MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL SD
POSSIBLY AFFECTING PIR AND MBG. THIS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT POSSIBLY AFFECTING ABR AND ATY BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT PIR AND MBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR




000
FXUS63 KABR 091202 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
602 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED ACROSS THE CWA GENERATING SOME CLOUD COVER
AND FLURRIES. A VERY SUBTLE WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA LATER TODAY
MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO GENERATE POCKETS OF SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT 1 TO 3 MICROBARS
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.  A MORE ROBUST NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE CLOSER TO 4 TO 8 MICROBARS OF LIFT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS IT DROPS OUT OF CANADA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
PROFILES DO SUPPORT THE LOSS OF DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SATURATION
WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY DURING THE DAY...AND WITH SATURATION BELOW
AROUND 700MB...THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING ACROSS THE
CWA...ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIMITED IN RANGE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE WEST RIVER WHICH WILL BREAK INTO SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE US THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO WESTERN CANADA WITH A VERY
LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
EASTERN US. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVES COMING ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FIRST WAVE COMES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT TRACKING ALONG A
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING ARCTIC FRONT BRINGING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW. THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR BOTH DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST WITH
WARMER AIR RETURNING ON THE BACKSIDE FOR LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS SHOW A
SECOND STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC AND ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME WAA LIGHT
SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW WITH THE WAVE
ITSELF. THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WAA LOW VFR/OCNL MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL SD
POSSIBLY AFFECTING PIR AND MBG. THIS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT POSSIBLY AFFECTING ABR AND ATY BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT PIR AND MBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR



000
FXUS63 KABR 091202 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
602 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED ACROSS THE CWA GENERATING SOME CLOUD COVER
AND FLURRIES. A VERY SUBTLE WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA LATER TODAY
MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO GENERATE POCKETS OF SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT 1 TO 3 MICROBARS
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.  A MORE ROBUST NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE CLOSER TO 4 TO 8 MICROBARS OF LIFT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS IT DROPS OUT OF CANADA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
PROFILES DO SUPPORT THE LOSS OF DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SATURATION
WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY DURING THE DAY...AND WITH SATURATION BELOW
AROUND 700MB...THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING ACROSS THE
CWA...ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIMITED IN RANGE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE WEST RIVER WHICH WILL BREAK INTO SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE US THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO WESTERN CANADA WITH A VERY
LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
EASTERN US. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVES COMING ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FIRST WAVE COMES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT TRACKING ALONG A
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING ARCTIC FRONT BRINGING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW. THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR BOTH DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST WITH
WARMER AIR RETURNING ON THE BACKSIDE FOR LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS SHOW A
SECOND STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC AND ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME WAA LIGHT
SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW WITH THE WAVE
ITSELF. THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WAA LOW VFR/OCNL MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL SD
POSSIBLY AFFECTING PIR AND MBG. THIS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT POSSIBLY AFFECTING ABR AND ATY BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT PIR AND MBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR




000
FXUS63 KABR 091202 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
602 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED ACROSS THE CWA GENERATING SOME CLOUD COVER
AND FLURRIES. A VERY SUBTLE WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA LATER TODAY
MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO GENERATE POCKETS OF SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT 1 TO 3 MICROBARS
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.  A MORE ROBUST NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE CLOSER TO 4 TO 8 MICROBARS OF LIFT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS IT DROPS OUT OF CANADA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
PROFILES DO SUPPORT THE LOSS OF DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SATURATION
WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY DURING THE DAY...AND WITH SATURATION BELOW
AROUND 700MB...THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING ACROSS THE
CWA...ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIMITED IN RANGE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE WEST RIVER WHICH WILL BREAK INTO SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE US THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO WESTERN CANADA WITH A VERY
LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
EASTERN US. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVES COMING ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FIRST WAVE COMES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT TRACKING ALONG A
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING ARCTIC FRONT BRINGING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW. THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR BOTH DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST WITH
WARMER AIR RETURNING ON THE BACKSIDE FOR LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS SHOW A
SECOND STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC AND ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME WAA LIGHT
SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW WITH THE WAVE
ITSELF. THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WAA LOW VFR/OCNL MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL SD
POSSIBLY AFFECTING PIR AND MBG. THIS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT POSSIBLY AFFECTING ABR AND ATY BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT PIR AND MBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR




000
FXUS63 KFSD 091117
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
517 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

STILL SEEING SPORADIC WIND GUSTS SPIKE UP TO 35-40KT IN PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WITH GENERAL
DOWNWARD TREND AND STRONGER WINDS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED...WILL LET
REMAINING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THESE LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER...AS FAVORABLE MIXING WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST
WINDS TO REMAIN BREEZY IN 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE UNTIL SUNSET. NEUTRAL
TO WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALSO PERSISTS IN OUR EAST THROUGH THE DAY...
SO TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY REBOUND INTO THE MID TEENS FOR HIGHS THERE
TODAY. SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO
LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT IN OUR WEST...THOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH A HIGH NEAR 30.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO INCREASING THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER TONIGHT...AS MID LEVEL
WAVE DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR/WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT TO SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE
OVER THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK...THOUGH EASTERN AREAS LIKELY TO SEE A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS
AS CLOUDS WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY THIN AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
INTO THAT AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. DEEPEST SATURATION PRIOR TO 12Z
APPEARS TO REMAIN WEST OF I-29 CORRIDOR...AND WILL LARGELY CONFINE
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH TO THESE
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE DAY...WHILE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WANDERS FIRST NORTHEAST...THEN SETTLES IN WAKE OF
WAVE BACK A BIT SOUTHWEST BY EVENING. BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE FEATURES
A FAIRLY DECENT SLOPE...AND CROSS SECTIONS ACTUALLY SUGGEST THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF WEAK INSTABILITY ABOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
AND EAST OF A KHON-KFSD-KCIN LINE TO AID IN FOCUSING/NARROWING THE
BAND A BIT MORE. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GENERATED BY INDUCED CROSS
FRONTAL FLOW AS JET IMPULSE SLIPS PAST THE AREA. HOWEVER...OVERALL
SIGNATURE FOR LIFT FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK...SO SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF
HAND. THERMAL PROFILES ALSO WOULD INDICATE THAT PROSPECT FOR SUPER
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION IS PROBABLY OUT OF THE QUESTION...WITH MOST
OF THE DENDRITIC TEMPS INVOLVED TOWARD THE EAST...AND TENDENCY WILL
BE FOR LAYER TO MODERATE JUST TO THE WARM SIDE OF THE BEST THERMAL
RANGE. WEST OF THE DEEPER SATURATION...EVEN POSSIBLE THAT WILL LOSE
THE NECESSARY DEPTH TO OBTAIN ICE DEVELOPMENT...AND COULD BE LOOKING
AT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARD THE JAMES VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. THE
LIKELY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL AVERAGE 13-15 TO 1...HIGHER TOWARD
THE EAST. BEST OF THE DEEPER FORCING WILL OCCUR THRU 18Z-21Z...AT
WHICH POINT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE A BIT MORE AT ODDS WITH
THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH EXPECTED DECREASE IN OVERALL SNOW COVERAGE
OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN...LIKELY TO FIND BAND OF AN INCH OR LITTLE
MORE ACROSS THE MID/EASTERN CWA.

SURFACE TROUGH IN MOST SOLUTIONS PUSHES INTO LOWER BRULE AREAS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A STRONG MODERATION
TO TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WHILE ECMWF STANDS FIRMLY ALONE
IN KEEPING THE COLDER AIR LOCKED IN. HAVE SIDED MORE TOWARD THE
MAJORITY...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE BEHAVIOR OF THE NEAR SURFACE
THERMAL BOUNDARY.

SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COOLER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC RIDGE
OOZES TOWARD THE EASTERN CWA. WITH TEMPS COOLING TOWARD VERY
DENDRITIC RANGE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET SCATTERED FLURRIES
AS LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD. THURSDAY A QUIET DAY
AS FLOW WORKS TO TURN AROUND TOWARD SOUTHERLY. ANOTHER WAVE IN THE
FRANTIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE...THE LOCATION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CONTINUES TO
WAVER SPATIALLY BOTH BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODEL RUNS AND SUCCESSIVE
RUNS OF THE SAME MODEL...THUS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL
IS HARD TO PLACE AT THIS TIME. MOST ARE FOCUSING ON THE THURSDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...SO FOR NOW WILL BROAD BRUSH IN SOME LOWER POPS...
FAVORING MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE STRONGER MID
LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING IS ADVERTISED.

AS IN THE CASE OF THE WEDNESDAY WAVE...THIS WAVE WILL ALSO ACT TO A
GREATER DEGREE TO AMPLIFY THE PATTERN...DRIVING A STRONG ARCTIC
ANTICYCLONE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE A GREAT DEAL ON
FRIDAY...LIKELY STEADY TO FALLING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. BITTERLY
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING...WITH PERHAPS HIGH CLOUDS AND
A LESSER SNOW COVER KEEPING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FROM
REACHING TEMPS FROM CRASHING WELL BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS COULD
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
EAST. PRESENCE OF ARCTIC RIDGE WILL KEEP SATURDAY TEMPS STRUGGLING
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EAST.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF THE ARCTIC RIDGE DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH PROSPECT OF AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS AND VERY COLD INTERVENING TEMPERATURES... WILL
BE A SNEAKY SET UP FOR ELEVATED LOCATIONS FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO
HIGHER LOCALES OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA TO DEVELOP
SOME BLOWING SNOW.

ANOTHER TROUGH PROGRESSING OUT OF THE PACIFIC THIS TIME AROUND WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LEADING WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY
PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH/EAST...WITH BETTER CHANCES ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT
OF A CHALLENGE TO EARLY PRECIP PRODUCTION...BUT BY SUNDAY ENOUGH
DYNAMIC FORCING TO BRING UP SOME CHANCE POPS NORTH/EAST.

THE OVERALL SIGNAL IS FOR THE LARGER SCALE AMPLIFICATION TO BREAK
DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING A MORE ZONAL PUSH OF MILDER AIR TO
SURGE ACROSS THE REGION. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE HESITANT...BUT
EVENTUALLY GETS THERE LATER TUE AND WED. A BIT CONCERNED THAT A FEW
THINGS COULD IMPEDE THE STRONGER WARMING SIGNAL FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE SOLUTION TRENDS TOWARD THE ECMWF.
OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF ENSEMBLE...SO FOR
NOW...HAVE STUCK CLOSER TO THE BLEND...WITH SMALL HEDGE DOWN IN THE
DEEPER SNOWCOVERED AREAS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

AREAS MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA TODAY DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 25KT AT TIMES. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS AND POINTS WEST THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. AFTER
THAT TIME...LOWERING CEILINGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DEVELOPING
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS ONLY EXPECTED TO IMPACT KHON TAF LOCATION
BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY SHIFT INTO KFSD
AND KSUX AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 091117
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
517 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

STILL SEEING SPORADIC WIND GUSTS SPIKE UP TO 35-40KT IN PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WITH GENERAL
DOWNWARD TREND AND STRONGER WINDS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED...WILL LET
REMAINING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THESE LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER...AS FAVORABLE MIXING WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST
WINDS TO REMAIN BREEZY IN 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE UNTIL SUNSET. NEUTRAL
TO WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALSO PERSISTS IN OUR EAST THROUGH THE DAY...
SO TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY REBOUND INTO THE MID TEENS FOR HIGHS THERE
TODAY. SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO
LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT IN OUR WEST...THOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH A HIGH NEAR 30.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO INCREASING THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER TONIGHT...AS MID LEVEL
WAVE DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR/WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT TO SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE
OVER THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK...THOUGH EASTERN AREAS LIKELY TO SEE A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS
AS CLOUDS WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY THIN AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
INTO THAT AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. DEEPEST SATURATION PRIOR TO 12Z
APPEARS TO REMAIN WEST OF I-29 CORRIDOR...AND WILL LARGELY CONFINE
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH TO THESE
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE DAY...WHILE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WANDERS FIRST NORTHEAST...THEN SETTLES IN WAKE OF
WAVE BACK A BIT SOUTHWEST BY EVENING. BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE FEATURES
A FAIRLY DECENT SLOPE...AND CROSS SECTIONS ACTUALLY SUGGEST THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF WEAK INSTABILITY ABOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
AND EAST OF A KHON-KFSD-KCIN LINE TO AID IN FOCUSING/NARROWING THE
BAND A BIT MORE. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GENERATED BY INDUCED CROSS
FRONTAL FLOW AS JET IMPULSE SLIPS PAST THE AREA. HOWEVER...OVERALL
SIGNATURE FOR LIFT FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK...SO SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF
HAND. THERMAL PROFILES ALSO WOULD INDICATE THAT PROSPECT FOR SUPER
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION IS PROBABLY OUT OF THE QUESTION...WITH MOST
OF THE DENDRITIC TEMPS INVOLVED TOWARD THE EAST...AND TENDENCY WILL
BE FOR LAYER TO MODERATE JUST TO THE WARM SIDE OF THE BEST THERMAL
RANGE. WEST OF THE DEEPER SATURATION...EVEN POSSIBLE THAT WILL LOSE
THE NECESSARY DEPTH TO OBTAIN ICE DEVELOPMENT...AND COULD BE LOOKING
AT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARD THE JAMES VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. THE
LIKELY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL AVERAGE 13-15 TO 1...HIGHER TOWARD
THE EAST. BEST OF THE DEEPER FORCING WILL OCCUR THRU 18Z-21Z...AT
WHICH POINT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE A BIT MORE AT ODDS WITH
THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH EXPECTED DECREASE IN OVERALL SNOW COVERAGE
OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN...LIKELY TO FIND BAND OF AN INCH OR LITTLE
MORE ACROSS THE MID/EASTERN CWA.

SURFACE TROUGH IN MOST SOLUTIONS PUSHES INTO LOWER BRULE AREAS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A STRONG MODERATION
TO TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WHILE ECMWF STANDS FIRMLY ALONE
IN KEEPING THE COLDER AIR LOCKED IN. HAVE SIDED MORE TOWARD THE
MAJORITY...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE BEHAVIOR OF THE NEAR SURFACE
THERMAL BOUNDARY.

SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COOLER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC RIDGE
OOZES TOWARD THE EASTERN CWA. WITH TEMPS COOLING TOWARD VERY
DENDRITIC RANGE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET SCATTERED FLURRIES
AS LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD. THURSDAY A QUIET DAY
AS FLOW WORKS TO TURN AROUND TOWARD SOUTHERLY. ANOTHER WAVE IN THE
FRANTIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE...THE LOCATION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CONTINUES TO
WAVER SPATIALLY BOTH BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODEL RUNS AND SUCCESSIVE
RUNS OF THE SAME MODEL...THUS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL
IS HARD TO PLACE AT THIS TIME. MOST ARE FOCUSING ON THE THURSDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...SO FOR NOW WILL BROAD BRUSH IN SOME LOWER POPS...
FAVORING MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE STRONGER MID
LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING IS ADVERTISED.

AS IN THE CASE OF THE WEDNESDAY WAVE...THIS WAVE WILL ALSO ACT TO A
GREATER DEGREE TO AMPLIFY THE PATTERN...DRIVING A STRONG ARCTIC
ANTICYCLONE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE A GREAT DEAL ON
FRIDAY...LIKELY STEADY TO FALLING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. BITTERLY
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING...WITH PERHAPS HIGH CLOUDS AND
A LESSER SNOW COVER KEEPING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FROM
REACHING TEMPS FROM CRASHING WELL BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS COULD
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
EAST. PRESENCE OF ARCTIC RIDGE WILL KEEP SATURDAY TEMPS STRUGGLING
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EAST.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF THE ARCTIC RIDGE DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH PROSPECT OF AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS AND VERY COLD INTERVENING TEMPERATURES... WILL
BE A SNEAKY SET UP FOR ELEVATED LOCATIONS FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO
HIGHER LOCALES OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA TO DEVELOP
SOME BLOWING SNOW.

ANOTHER TROUGH PROGRESSING OUT OF THE PACIFIC THIS TIME AROUND WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LEADING WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY
PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH/EAST...WITH BETTER CHANCES ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT
OF A CHALLENGE TO EARLY PRECIP PRODUCTION...BUT BY SUNDAY ENOUGH
DYNAMIC FORCING TO BRING UP SOME CHANCE POPS NORTH/EAST.

THE OVERALL SIGNAL IS FOR THE LARGER SCALE AMPLIFICATION TO BREAK
DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING A MORE ZONAL PUSH OF MILDER AIR TO
SURGE ACROSS THE REGION. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE HESITANT...BUT
EVENTUALLY GETS THERE LATER TUE AND WED. A BIT CONCERNED THAT A FEW
THINGS COULD IMPEDE THE STRONGER WARMING SIGNAL FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE SOLUTION TRENDS TOWARD THE ECMWF.
OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF ENSEMBLE...SO FOR
NOW...HAVE STUCK CLOSER TO THE BLEND...WITH SMALL HEDGE DOWN IN THE
DEEPER SNOWCOVERED AREAS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

AREAS MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA TODAY DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 25KT AT TIMES. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS AND POINTS WEST THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. AFTER
THAT TIME...LOWERING CEILINGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DEVELOPING
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS ONLY EXPECTED TO IMPACT KHON TAF LOCATION
BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY SHIFT INTO KFSD
AND KSUX AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 091117
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
517 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

STILL SEEING SPORADIC WIND GUSTS SPIKE UP TO 35-40KT IN PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WITH GENERAL
DOWNWARD TREND AND STRONGER WINDS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED...WILL LET
REMAINING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THESE LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER...AS FAVORABLE MIXING WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST
WINDS TO REMAIN BREEZY IN 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE UNTIL SUNSET. NEUTRAL
TO WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALSO PERSISTS IN OUR EAST THROUGH THE DAY...
SO TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY REBOUND INTO THE MID TEENS FOR HIGHS THERE
TODAY. SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO
LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT IN OUR WEST...THOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH A HIGH NEAR 30.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO INCREASING THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER TONIGHT...AS MID LEVEL
WAVE DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR/WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT TO SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE
OVER THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK...THOUGH EASTERN AREAS LIKELY TO SEE A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS
AS CLOUDS WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY THIN AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
INTO THAT AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. DEEPEST SATURATION PRIOR TO 12Z
APPEARS TO REMAIN WEST OF I-29 CORRIDOR...AND WILL LARGELY CONFINE
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH TO THESE
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE DAY...WHILE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WANDERS FIRST NORTHEAST...THEN SETTLES IN WAKE OF
WAVE BACK A BIT SOUTHWEST BY EVENING. BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE FEATURES
A FAIRLY DECENT SLOPE...AND CROSS SECTIONS ACTUALLY SUGGEST THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF WEAK INSTABILITY ABOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
AND EAST OF A KHON-KFSD-KCIN LINE TO AID IN FOCUSING/NARROWING THE
BAND A BIT MORE. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GENERATED BY INDUCED CROSS
FRONTAL FLOW AS JET IMPULSE SLIPS PAST THE AREA. HOWEVER...OVERALL
SIGNATURE FOR LIFT FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK...SO SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF
HAND. THERMAL PROFILES ALSO WOULD INDICATE THAT PROSPECT FOR SUPER
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION IS PROBABLY OUT OF THE QUESTION...WITH MOST
OF THE DENDRITIC TEMPS INVOLVED TOWARD THE EAST...AND TENDENCY WILL
BE FOR LAYER TO MODERATE JUST TO THE WARM SIDE OF THE BEST THERMAL
RANGE. WEST OF THE DEEPER SATURATION...EVEN POSSIBLE THAT WILL LOSE
THE NECESSARY DEPTH TO OBTAIN ICE DEVELOPMENT...AND COULD BE LOOKING
AT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARD THE JAMES VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. THE
LIKELY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL AVERAGE 13-15 TO 1...HIGHER TOWARD
THE EAST. BEST OF THE DEEPER FORCING WILL OCCUR THRU 18Z-21Z...AT
WHICH POINT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE A BIT MORE AT ODDS WITH
THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH EXPECTED DECREASE IN OVERALL SNOW COVERAGE
OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN...LIKELY TO FIND BAND OF AN INCH OR LITTLE
MORE ACROSS THE MID/EASTERN CWA.

SURFACE TROUGH IN MOST SOLUTIONS PUSHES INTO LOWER BRULE AREAS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A STRONG MODERATION
TO TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WHILE ECMWF STANDS FIRMLY ALONE
IN KEEPING THE COLDER AIR LOCKED IN. HAVE SIDED MORE TOWARD THE
MAJORITY...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE BEHAVIOR OF THE NEAR SURFACE
THERMAL BOUNDARY.

SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COOLER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC RIDGE
OOZES TOWARD THE EASTERN CWA. WITH TEMPS COOLING TOWARD VERY
DENDRITIC RANGE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET SCATTERED FLURRIES
AS LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD. THURSDAY A QUIET DAY
AS FLOW WORKS TO TURN AROUND TOWARD SOUTHERLY. ANOTHER WAVE IN THE
FRANTIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE...THE LOCATION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CONTINUES TO
WAVER SPATIALLY BOTH BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODEL RUNS AND SUCCESSIVE
RUNS OF THE SAME MODEL...THUS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL
IS HARD TO PLACE AT THIS TIME. MOST ARE FOCUSING ON THE THURSDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...SO FOR NOW WILL BROAD BRUSH IN SOME LOWER POPS...
FAVORING MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE STRONGER MID
LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING IS ADVERTISED.

AS IN THE CASE OF THE WEDNESDAY WAVE...THIS WAVE WILL ALSO ACT TO A
GREATER DEGREE TO AMPLIFY THE PATTERN...DRIVING A STRONG ARCTIC
ANTICYCLONE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE A GREAT DEAL ON
FRIDAY...LIKELY STEADY TO FALLING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. BITTERLY
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING...WITH PERHAPS HIGH CLOUDS AND
A LESSER SNOW COVER KEEPING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FROM
REACHING TEMPS FROM CRASHING WELL BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS COULD
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
EAST. PRESENCE OF ARCTIC RIDGE WILL KEEP SATURDAY TEMPS STRUGGLING
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EAST.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF THE ARCTIC RIDGE DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH PROSPECT OF AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS AND VERY COLD INTERVENING TEMPERATURES... WILL
BE A SNEAKY SET UP FOR ELEVATED LOCATIONS FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO
HIGHER LOCALES OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA TO DEVELOP
SOME BLOWING SNOW.

ANOTHER TROUGH PROGRESSING OUT OF THE PACIFIC THIS TIME AROUND WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LEADING WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY
PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH/EAST...WITH BETTER CHANCES ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT
OF A CHALLENGE TO EARLY PRECIP PRODUCTION...BUT BY SUNDAY ENOUGH
DYNAMIC FORCING TO BRING UP SOME CHANCE POPS NORTH/EAST.

THE OVERALL SIGNAL IS FOR THE LARGER SCALE AMPLIFICATION TO BREAK
DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING A MORE ZONAL PUSH OF MILDER AIR TO
SURGE ACROSS THE REGION. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE HESITANT...BUT
EVENTUALLY GETS THERE LATER TUE AND WED. A BIT CONCERNED THAT A FEW
THINGS COULD IMPEDE THE STRONGER WARMING SIGNAL FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE SOLUTION TRENDS TOWARD THE ECMWF.
OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF ENSEMBLE...SO FOR
NOW...HAVE STUCK CLOSER TO THE BLEND...WITH SMALL HEDGE DOWN IN THE
DEEPER SNOWCOVERED AREAS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

AREAS MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA TODAY DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 25KT AT TIMES. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS AND POINTS WEST THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. AFTER
THAT TIME...LOWERING CEILINGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DEVELOPING
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS ONLY EXPECTED TO IMPACT KHON TAF LOCATION
BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY SHIFT INTO KFSD
AND KSUX AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KABR 091027
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
427 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED ACROSS THE CWA GENERATING SOME CLOUD COVER
AND FLURRIES. A VERY SUBTLE WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA LATER TODAY
MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO GENERATE POCKETS OF SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT 1 TO 3 MICROBARS
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.  A MORE ROBUST NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE CLOSER TO 4 TO 8 MICROBARS OF LIFT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS IT DROPS OUT OF CANADA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
PROFILES DO SUPPORT THE LOSS OF DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SATURATION
WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY DURING THE DAY...AND WITH SATURATION BELOW
AROUND 700MB...THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING ACROSS THE
CWA...ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIMITED IN RANGE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE WEST RIVER WHICH WILL BREAK INTO SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE US THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO WESTERN CANADA WITH A VERY
LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
EASTERN US. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVES COMING ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FIRST WAVE COMES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT TRACKING ALONG A
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING ARCTIC FRONT BRINGING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW. THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR BOTH DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST WITH
WARMER AIR RETURNING ON THE BACKSIDE FOR LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS SHOW A
SECOND STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC AND ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME WAA LIGHT
SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW WITH THE WAVE
ITSELF. THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN LATER FORECASTS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A SMALL AREA OF MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS IS AFFECTING
KATY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 9Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MORNING. TUE AFTERNOON MVFR CIGS
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND IMPACT KMBG AND KPIR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KFSD 091015
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
415 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

STILL SEEING SPORADIC WIND GUSTS SPIKE UP TO 35-40KT IN PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WITH GENERAL
DOWNWARD TREND AND STRONGER WINDS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED...WILL LET
REMAINING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THESE LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER...AS FAVORABLE MIXING WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST
WINDS TO REMAIN BREEZY IN 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE UNTIL SUNSET. NEUTRAL
TO WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALSO PERSISTS IN OUR EAST THROUGH THE DAY...
SO TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY REBOUND INTO THE MID TEENS FOR HIGHS THERE
TODAY. SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO
LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT IN OUR WEST...THOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH A HIGH NEAR 30.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO INCREASING THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER TONIGHT...AS MID LEVEL
WAVE DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR/WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT TO SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE
OVER THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK...THOUGH EASTERN AREAS LIKELY TO SEE A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS
AS CLOUDS WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY THIN AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
INTO THAT AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. DEEPEST SATURATION PRIOR TO 12Z
APPEARS TO REMAIN WEST OF I-29 CORRIDOR...AND WILL LARGELY CONFINE
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH TO THESE
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE DAY...WHILE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WANDERS FIRST NORTHEAST...THEN SETTLES IN WAKE OF
WAVE BACK A BIT SOUTHWEST BY EVENING. BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE FEATURES
A FAIRLY DECENT SLOPE...AND CROSS SECTIONS ACTUALLY SUGGEST THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF WEAK INSTABILITY ABOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
AND EAST OF A KHON-KFSD-KCIN LINE TO AID IN FOCUSING/NARROWING THE
BAND A BIT MORE. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GENERATED BY INDUCED CROSS
FRONTAL FLOW AS JET IMPULSE SLIPS PAST THE AREA. HOWEVER...OVERALL
SIGNATURE FOR LIFT FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK...SO SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF
HAND. THERMAL PROFILES ALSO WOULD INDICATE THAT PROSPECT FOR SUPER
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION IS PROBABLY OUT OF THE QUESTION...WITH MOST
OF THE DENDRITIC TEMPS INVOLVED TOWARD THE EAST...AND TENDENCY WILL
BE FOR LAYER TO MODERATE JUST TO THE WARM SIDE OF THE BEST THERMAL
RANGE. WEST OF THE DEEPER SATURATION...EVEN POSSIBLE THAT WILL LOSE
THE NECESSARY DEPTH TO OBTAIN ICE DEVELOPMENT...AND COULD BE LOOKING
AT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARD THE JAMES VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. THE
LIKELY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL AVERAGE 13-15 TO 1...HIGHER TOWARD
THE EAST. BEST OF THE DEEPER FORCING WILL OCCUR THRU 18Z-21Z...AT
WHICH POINT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE A BIT MORE AT ODDS WITH
THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH EXPECTED DECREASE IN OVERALL SNOW COVERAGE
OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN...LIKELY TO FIND BAND OF AN INCH OR LITTLE
MORE ACROSS THE MID/EASTERN CWA.

SURFACE TROUGH IN MOST SOLUTIONS PUSHES INTO LOWER BRULE AREAS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A STRONG MODERATION
TO TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WHILE ECMWF STANDS FIRMLY ALONE
IN KEEPING THE COLDER AIR LOCKED IN. HAVE SIDED MORE TOWARD THE
MAJORITY...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE BEHAVIOR OF THE NEAR SURFACE
THERMAL BOUNDARY.

SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COOLER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC RIDGE
OOZES TOWARD THE EASTERN CWA. WITH TEMPS COOLING TOWARD VERY
DENDRITIC RANGE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET SCATTERED FLURRIES
AS LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD. THURSDAY A QUIET DAY
AS FLOW WORKS TO TURN AROUND TOWARD SOUTHERLY. ANOTHER WAVE IN THE
FRANTIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE...THE LOCATION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CONTINUES TO
WAVER SPATIALLY BOTH BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODEL RUNS AND SUCCESSIVE
RUNS OF THE SAME MODEL...THUS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL
IS HARD TO PLACE AT THIS TIME. MOST ARE FOCUSING ON THE THURSDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...SO FOR NOW WILL BROAD BRUSH IN SOME LOWER POPS...
FAVORING MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE STRONGER MID
LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING IS ADVERTISED.

AS IN THE CASE OF THE WEDNESDAY WAVE...THIS WAVE WILL ALSO ACT TO A
GREATER DEGREE TO AMPLIFY THE PATTERN...DRIVING A STRONG ARCTIC
ANTICYCLONE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE A GREAT DEAL ON
FRIDAY...LIKELY STEADY TO FALLING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. BITTERLY
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING...WITH PERHAPS HIGH CLOUDS AND
A LESSER SNOW COVER KEEPING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FROM
REACHING TEMPS FROM CRASHING WELL BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS COULD
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
EAST. PRESENCE OF ARCTIC RIDGE WILL KEEP SATURDAY TEMPS STRUGGLING
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EAST.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF THE ARCTIC RIDGE DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH PROSPECT OF AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS AND VERY COLD INTERVENING TEMPERATURES... WILL
BE A SNEAKY SET UP FOR ELEVATED LOCATIONS FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO
HIGHER LOCALES OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA TO DEVELOP
SOME BLOWING SNOW.

ANOTHER TROUGH PROGRESSING OUT OF THE PACIFIC THIS TIME AROUND WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LEADING WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY
PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH/EAST...WITH BETTER CHANCES ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT
OF A CHALLENGE TO EARLY PRECIP PRODUCTION...BUT BY SUNDAY ENOUGH
DYNAMIC FORCING TO BRING UP SOME CHANCE POPS NORTH/EAST.

THE OVERALL SIGNAL IS FOR THE LARGER SCALE AMPLIFICATION TO BREAK
DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING A MORE ZONAL PUSH OF MILDER AIR TO
SURGE ACROSS THE REGION. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE HESITANT...BUT
EVENTUALLY GETS THERE LATER TUE AND WED. A BIT CONCERNED THAT A FEW
THINGS COULD IMPEDE THE STRONGER WARMING SIGNAL FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE SOLUTION TRENDS TOWARD THE ECMWF.
OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF ENSEMBLE...SO FOR
NOW...HAVE STUCK CLOSER TO THE BLEND...WITH SMALL HEDGE DOWN IN THE
DEEPER SNOWCOVERED AREAS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SLOWLY TAPERING DOWN INTO
TUESDAY. TO THE EAST...WHILE WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY TAPERING DOWN
THEY WILL REMAIN STRONGER...AND WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AND THE
STRONGER WINDS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KUNR 090903
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
203 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH A
120 KT UPPER JET BETWEEN THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS CENTRAL SD ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WINDS ARE
LIGHT..AND TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SD
AND THE NORTHERN HILLS. CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA. PROFILES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL SD...SO HAVE ADDED MENTION IN GRIDS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...TO THE
UPPER 40S FARTHER WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE LOW
SLIDES INTO SD...AND WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST ALONG THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS.
COOLER AIR BEGINS PUSHING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CREATE AMPLIFIED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA COOLING DOWN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MILD AND DRY NW FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AS THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH DUE TO FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS TO ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10



000
FXUS63 KUNR 090903
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
203 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH A
120 KT UPPER JET BETWEEN THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS CENTRAL SD ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WINDS ARE
LIGHT..AND TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SD
AND THE NORTHERN HILLS. CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA. PROFILES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL SD...SO HAVE ADDED MENTION IN GRIDS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...TO THE
UPPER 40S FARTHER WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE LOW
SLIDES INTO SD...AND WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST ALONG THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS.
COOLER AIR BEGINS PUSHING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CREATE AMPLIFIED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA COOLING DOWN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MILD AND DRY NW FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AS THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH DUE TO FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS TO ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10




000
FXUS63 KUNR 090903
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
203 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH A
120 KT UPPER JET BETWEEN THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS CENTRAL SD ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WINDS ARE
LIGHT..AND TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SD
AND THE NORTHERN HILLS. CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA. PROFILES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL SD...SO HAVE ADDED MENTION IN GRIDS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...TO THE
UPPER 40S FARTHER WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE LOW
SLIDES INTO SD...AND WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST ALONG THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS.
COOLER AIR BEGINS PUSHING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CREATE AMPLIFIED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA COOLING DOWN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MILD AND DRY NW FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AS THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH DUE TO FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS TO ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10




000
FXUS63 KUNR 090527
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1027 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...RESPECTIVELY...WITH OUR
CWA IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE
QUITE BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH MANY AREAS
STILL SEEING 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH 40 MPH GUSTS. SHOULD SEE
WINDS SUBSIDE SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE CWA.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLACK HILLS
REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT DRIER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ITS GENERALLY UNDER FIVE THOUSAND FEET
IN DEPTH...AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND INSTEAD MENTION FLURRIES IN THE HILLS STARTING AFTER
06Z.

BY TUESDAY...A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS. FORCING ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
LOOK WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. P-TYPE COULD BE INTERESTING...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED CONDITIONS BETWEEN 0 TO -10 C AND DRIER AIR IN THE
DGZ...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FZDZ/-FZRA. HOWEVER...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-RA/-SN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MIGHT NEED TO
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FZDZ-/-FZRA IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES IN WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPS.

THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND NEARLY OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AND WARMER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. MID/LEVEL
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WEST IN THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA COOLING
DOWN FRIDAY-SAT. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUN- MON...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP
NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS
TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CIGS FROM 6-12KFT AGL. VFR CIGS TONIGHT
WILL BE MIXED WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM K2WX TO KIEN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON



000
FXUS63 KUNR 090527
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1027 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...RESPECTIVELY...WITH OUR
CWA IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE
QUITE BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH MANY AREAS
STILL SEEING 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH 40 MPH GUSTS. SHOULD SEE
WINDS SUBSIDE SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE CWA.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLACK HILLS
REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT DRIER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ITS GENERALLY UNDER FIVE THOUSAND FEET
IN DEPTH...AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND INSTEAD MENTION FLURRIES IN THE HILLS STARTING AFTER
06Z.

BY TUESDAY...A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS. FORCING ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
LOOK WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. P-TYPE COULD BE INTERESTING...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED CONDITIONS BETWEEN 0 TO -10 C AND DRIER AIR IN THE
DGZ...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FZDZ/-FZRA. HOWEVER...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-RA/-SN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MIGHT NEED TO
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FZDZ-/-FZRA IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES IN WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPS.

THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND NEARLY OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AND WARMER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. MID/LEVEL
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WEST IN THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA COOLING
DOWN FRIDAY-SAT. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUN- MON...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP
NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS
TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CIGS FROM 6-12KFT AGL. VFR CIGS TONIGHT
WILL BE MIXED WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM K2WX TO KIEN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON



000
FXUS63 KUNR 090527
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1027 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...RESPECTIVELY...WITH OUR
CWA IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE
QUITE BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH MANY AREAS
STILL SEEING 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH 40 MPH GUSTS. SHOULD SEE
WINDS SUBSIDE SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE CWA.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLACK HILLS
REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT DRIER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ITS GENERALLY UNDER FIVE THOUSAND FEET
IN DEPTH...AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND INSTEAD MENTION FLURRIES IN THE HILLS STARTING AFTER
06Z.

BY TUESDAY...A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS. FORCING ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
LOOK WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. P-TYPE COULD BE INTERESTING...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED CONDITIONS BETWEEN 0 TO -10 C AND DRIER AIR IN THE
DGZ...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FZDZ/-FZRA. HOWEVER...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-RA/-SN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MIGHT NEED TO
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FZDZ-/-FZRA IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES IN WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPS.

THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND NEARLY OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AND WARMER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. MID/LEVEL
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WEST IN THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA COOLING
DOWN FRIDAY-SAT. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUN- MON...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP
NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS
TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CIGS FROM 6-12KFT AGL. VFR CIGS TONIGHT
WILL BE MIXED WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM K2WX TO KIEN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON



000
FXUS63 KUNR 090527
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1027 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...RESPECTIVELY...WITH OUR
CWA IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE
QUITE BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH MANY AREAS
STILL SEEING 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH 40 MPH GUSTS. SHOULD SEE
WINDS SUBSIDE SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE CWA.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLACK HILLS
REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT DRIER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ITS GENERALLY UNDER FIVE THOUSAND FEET
IN DEPTH...AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND INSTEAD MENTION FLURRIES IN THE HILLS STARTING AFTER
06Z.

BY TUESDAY...A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS. FORCING ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
LOOK WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. P-TYPE COULD BE INTERESTING...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED CONDITIONS BETWEEN 0 TO -10 C AND DRIER AIR IN THE
DGZ...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FZDZ/-FZRA. HOWEVER...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-RA/-SN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MIGHT NEED TO
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FZDZ-/-FZRA IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES IN WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPS.

THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND NEARLY OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AND WARMER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. MID/LEVEL
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WEST IN THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA COOLING
DOWN FRIDAY-SAT. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUN- MON...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP
NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS
TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CIGS FROM 6-12KFT AGL. VFR CIGS TONIGHT
WILL BE MIXED WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM K2WX TO KIEN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON



000
FXUS63 KABR 090526 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1126 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A LITTLE EARLY THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY ALL OBSERVATIONS AND
WEB CAMERAS ARE NOT SHOWING REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWA...WITH AN
END TO ANY BLOWING SNOW BY MID EVENING. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT A SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE.  AFTER LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS/PREDICTED UVM...AM NOT
PARTICULARLY EXCITED ABOUT PCPN AMOUNTS...OR POPS FOR THAT MATTER.
SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST PERHAPS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST.  ON
WEDNESDAY A MORE PROLIFIC SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IN FAST UPPER
FLOW...WITH A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD PUSH
OFF INTO MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE TERM...WITH CHILLY AND BELOW
NORMAL READINGS IN THE EAST...AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS OUT WEST
RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST...LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER OUR AREA...AT LEAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. UNDER THIS
PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL
AND THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME WHEN WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WE WILL START TO SEE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND HOWEVER.
UNFORTUNATELY...THERE ISN`T MUCH IN THE WAY OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND
CONSISTENCY BY THE TAIL END OF THE LONG TERM. MODELS DO AGREE ON A
VERY STRONG 500 MB LOW MOVING INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION...RESULTING
IN COLD AIR AND A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH SINKING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WHERE MODELS DISAGREE HOWEVER...IS HOW QUICKLY THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY...AND THE TIMING AND EFFECTS OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO FOLLOW. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT ALSO SUGGESTS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OVER
OUR REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES...SUPERBLEND
REMAINS THE FAVORED GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A SMALL AREA OF MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS IS AFFECTING
KATY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 9Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MORNING. TUE AFTERNOON MVFR CIGS
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND IMPACT KMBG AND KPIR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE



000
FXUS63 KABR 090526 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1126 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A LITTLE EARLY THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY ALL OBSERVATIONS AND
WEB CAMERAS ARE NOT SHOWING REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWA...WITH AN
END TO ANY BLOWING SNOW BY MID EVENING. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT A SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE.  AFTER LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS/PREDICTED UVM...AM NOT
PARTICULARLY EXCITED ABOUT PCPN AMOUNTS...OR POPS FOR THAT MATTER.
SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST PERHAPS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST.  ON
WEDNESDAY A MORE PROLIFIC SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IN FAST UPPER
FLOW...WITH A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD PUSH
OFF INTO MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE TERM...WITH CHILLY AND BELOW
NORMAL READINGS IN THE EAST...AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS OUT WEST
RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST...LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER OUR AREA...AT LEAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. UNDER THIS
PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL
AND THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME WHEN WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WE WILL START TO SEE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND HOWEVER.
UNFORTUNATELY...THERE ISN`T MUCH IN THE WAY OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND
CONSISTENCY BY THE TAIL END OF THE LONG TERM. MODELS DO AGREE ON A
VERY STRONG 500 MB LOW MOVING INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION...RESULTING
IN COLD AIR AND A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH SINKING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WHERE MODELS DISAGREE HOWEVER...IS HOW QUICKLY THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY...AND THE TIMING AND EFFECTS OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO FOLLOW. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT ALSO SUGGESTS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OVER
OUR REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES...SUPERBLEND
REMAINS THE FAVORED GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A SMALL AREA OF MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS IS AFFECTING
KATY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 9Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MORNING. TUE AFTERNOON MVFR CIGS
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND IMPACT KMBG AND KPIR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KFSD 090444
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1044 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG WINDS AND PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS CONTINUE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL ISSUES IN THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE EXTREMELY
STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND...WE ARE CONTINUING TO
SEE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REMAIN NEAR 50 KNOTS. CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE STREAMERS OF STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ARE HAVING
NO ISSUES PRODUCING SNOWFLAKES...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE LAYER
RESIDES IN THE DGZ.

TRENDS INTO THE EVENING CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAKENING WINDS...ALBEIT
VERY SLOWLY. HAVE CONCERNS THAT WE MAY LIKELY STAY WELL MIXED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF I-29...WITH
RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 40 KNOT GUSTS ALL
THE WAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT ANY REMAINING STRATO-CU IN THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE SNOW FLURRIES. WILL BE ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR AREAS
CURRENTLY IN A BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT SO AS TO NOT
ADVERTISE ANY DRASTICALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ONCE BLIZZARD
WARNING EXPIRES AT 00Z.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY OVER MINNESOTA/IOWA. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW AS GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 30 TOWARD TO
MO RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.

MODELS REMAIN UNCERTAIN REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE BOUNDARY WILL SET
UP INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT ACROSS NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THINK THAT THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER. STRONGER FORCING AND
LIFT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHWARD AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ADVANCES EAST INTO SOUTHEAST SD.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...WITH
LIGHT SNOW FORMING ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVES AS THE MID
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES... HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER
WITH THE ONSET THAN THE REST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. SNOW EXITS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND COULD
PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION WITH SOME FAIRLY HIGH
SNOW RATIOS IN OUR EASTERN HALF. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
BE SUBSTANTIAL FROM WEST TO EAST...RANGING FROM HIGHS NEAR 10 ALONG
OUR EASTERN BORDER...TO THE LOWER OR MID 30S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

WE POTENTIALLY SEE ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
MENTION OF ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING ISSUES. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA LARGELY
DRY WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF DEVELOP LIGHT SNOW. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WITH LOWS
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST FINALLY ADVANCES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING INTO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SLOWLY TAPERING DOWN INTO
TUESDAY. TO THE EAST...WHILE WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY TAPERING DOWN
THEY WILL REMAIN STRONGER...AND WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AND THE
STRONGER WINDS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-
     072-080-081-089-090-097.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ002-
     003-013-014-021-022-032.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 090444
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1044 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG WINDS AND PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS CONTINUE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL ISSUES IN THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE EXTREMELY
STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND...WE ARE CONTINUING TO
SEE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REMAIN NEAR 50 KNOTS. CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE STREAMERS OF STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ARE HAVING
NO ISSUES PRODUCING SNOWFLAKES...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE LAYER
RESIDES IN THE DGZ.

TRENDS INTO THE EVENING CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAKENING WINDS...ALBEIT
VERY SLOWLY. HAVE CONCERNS THAT WE MAY LIKELY STAY WELL MIXED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF I-29...WITH
RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 40 KNOT GUSTS ALL
THE WAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT ANY REMAINING STRATO-CU IN THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE SNOW FLURRIES. WILL BE ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR AREAS
CURRENTLY IN A BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT SO AS TO NOT
ADVERTISE ANY DRASTICALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ONCE BLIZZARD
WARNING EXPIRES AT 00Z.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY OVER MINNESOTA/IOWA. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW AS GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 30 TOWARD TO
MO RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.

MODELS REMAIN UNCERTAIN REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE BOUNDARY WILL SET
UP INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT ACROSS NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THINK THAT THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER. STRONGER FORCING AND
LIFT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHWARD AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ADVANCES EAST INTO SOUTHEAST SD.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...WITH
LIGHT SNOW FORMING ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVES AS THE MID
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES... HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER
WITH THE ONSET THAN THE REST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. SNOW EXITS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND COULD
PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION WITH SOME FAIRLY HIGH
SNOW RATIOS IN OUR EASTERN HALF. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
BE SUBSTANTIAL FROM WEST TO EAST...RANGING FROM HIGHS NEAR 10 ALONG
OUR EASTERN BORDER...TO THE LOWER OR MID 30S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

WE POTENTIALLY SEE ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
MENTION OF ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING ISSUES. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA LARGELY
DRY WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF DEVELOP LIGHT SNOW. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WITH LOWS
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST FINALLY ADVANCES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING INTO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SLOWLY TAPERING DOWN INTO
TUESDAY. TO THE EAST...WHILE WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY TAPERING DOWN
THEY WILL REMAIN STRONGER...AND WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AND THE
STRONGER WINDS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-
     072-080-081-089-090-097.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ002-
     003-013-014-021-022-032.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 090444
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1044 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG WINDS AND PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS CONTINUE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL ISSUES IN THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE EXTREMELY
STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND...WE ARE CONTINUING TO
SEE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REMAIN NEAR 50 KNOTS. CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE STREAMERS OF STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ARE HAVING
NO ISSUES PRODUCING SNOWFLAKES...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE LAYER
RESIDES IN THE DGZ.

TRENDS INTO THE EVENING CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAKENING WINDS...ALBEIT
VERY SLOWLY. HAVE CONCERNS THAT WE MAY LIKELY STAY WELL MIXED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF I-29...WITH
RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 40 KNOT GUSTS ALL
THE WAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT ANY REMAINING STRATO-CU IN THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE SNOW FLURRIES. WILL BE ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR AREAS
CURRENTLY IN A BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT SO AS TO NOT
ADVERTISE ANY DRASTICALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ONCE BLIZZARD
WARNING EXPIRES AT 00Z.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY OVER MINNESOTA/IOWA. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW AS GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 30 TOWARD TO
MO RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.

MODELS REMAIN UNCERTAIN REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE BOUNDARY WILL SET
UP INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT ACROSS NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THINK THAT THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER. STRONGER FORCING AND
LIFT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHWARD AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ADVANCES EAST INTO SOUTHEAST SD.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...WITH
LIGHT SNOW FORMING ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVES AS THE MID
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES... HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER
WITH THE ONSET THAN THE REST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. SNOW EXITS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND COULD
PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION WITH SOME FAIRLY HIGH
SNOW RATIOS IN OUR EASTERN HALF. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
BE SUBSTANTIAL FROM WEST TO EAST...RANGING FROM HIGHS NEAR 10 ALONG
OUR EASTERN BORDER...TO THE LOWER OR MID 30S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

WE POTENTIALLY SEE ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
MENTION OF ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING ISSUES. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA LARGELY
DRY WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF DEVELOP LIGHT SNOW. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WITH LOWS
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST FINALLY ADVANCES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING INTO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SLOWLY TAPERING DOWN INTO
TUESDAY. TO THE EAST...WHILE WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY TAPERING DOWN
THEY WILL REMAIN STRONGER...AND WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AND THE
STRONGER WINDS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-
     072-080-081-089-090-097.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ002-
     003-013-014-021-022-032.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 090444
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1044 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG WINDS AND PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS CONTINUE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL ISSUES IN THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE EXTREMELY
STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND...WE ARE CONTINUING TO
SEE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REMAIN NEAR 50 KNOTS. CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE STREAMERS OF STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ARE HAVING
NO ISSUES PRODUCING SNOWFLAKES...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE LAYER
RESIDES IN THE DGZ.

TRENDS INTO THE EVENING CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAKENING WINDS...ALBEIT
VERY SLOWLY. HAVE CONCERNS THAT WE MAY LIKELY STAY WELL MIXED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF I-29...WITH
RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 40 KNOT GUSTS ALL
THE WAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT ANY REMAINING STRATO-CU IN THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE SNOW FLURRIES. WILL BE ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR AREAS
CURRENTLY IN A BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT SO AS TO NOT
ADVERTISE ANY DRASTICALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ONCE BLIZZARD
WARNING EXPIRES AT 00Z.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY OVER MINNESOTA/IOWA. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW AS GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 30 TOWARD TO
MO RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.

MODELS REMAIN UNCERTAIN REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE BOUNDARY WILL SET
UP INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT ACROSS NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THINK THAT THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER. STRONGER FORCING AND
LIFT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHWARD AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ADVANCES EAST INTO SOUTHEAST SD.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...WITH
LIGHT SNOW FORMING ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVES AS THE MID
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES... HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER
WITH THE ONSET THAN THE REST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. SNOW EXITS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND COULD
PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION WITH SOME FAIRLY HIGH
SNOW RATIOS IN OUR EASTERN HALF. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
BE SUBSTANTIAL FROM WEST TO EAST...RANGING FROM HIGHS NEAR 10 ALONG
OUR EASTERN BORDER...TO THE LOWER OR MID 30S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

WE POTENTIALLY SEE ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
MENTION OF ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING ISSUES. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA LARGELY
DRY WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF DEVELOP LIGHT SNOW. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WITH LOWS
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST FINALLY ADVANCES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING INTO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SLOWLY TAPERING DOWN INTO
TUESDAY. TO THE EAST...WHILE WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY TAPERING DOWN
THEY WILL REMAIN STRONGER...AND WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AND THE
STRONGER WINDS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-
     072-080-081-089-090-097.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ002-
     003-013-014-021-022-032.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 090444
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1044 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG WINDS AND PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS CONTINUE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL ISSUES IN THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE EXTREMELY
STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND...WE ARE CONTINUING TO
SEE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REMAIN NEAR 50 KNOTS. CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE STREAMERS OF STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ARE HAVING
NO ISSUES PRODUCING SNOWFLAKES...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE LAYER
RESIDES IN THE DGZ.

TRENDS INTO THE EVENING CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAKENING WINDS...ALBEIT
VERY SLOWLY. HAVE CONCERNS THAT WE MAY LIKELY STAY WELL MIXED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF I-29...WITH
RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 40 KNOT GUSTS ALL
THE WAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT ANY REMAINING STRATO-CU IN THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE SNOW FLURRIES. WILL BE ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR AREAS
CURRENTLY IN A BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT SO AS TO NOT
ADVERTISE ANY DRASTICALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ONCE BLIZZARD
WARNING EXPIRES AT 00Z.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY OVER MINNESOTA/IOWA. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW AS GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 30 TOWARD TO
MO RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.

MODELS REMAIN UNCERTAIN REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE BOUNDARY WILL SET
UP INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT ACROSS NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THINK THAT THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER. STRONGER FORCING AND
LIFT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHWARD AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ADVANCES EAST INTO SOUTHEAST SD.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...WITH
LIGHT SNOW FORMING ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVES AS THE MID
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES... HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER
WITH THE ONSET THAN THE REST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. SNOW EXITS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND COULD
PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION WITH SOME FAIRLY HIGH
SNOW RATIOS IN OUR EASTERN HALF. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
BE SUBSTANTIAL FROM WEST TO EAST...RANGING FROM HIGHS NEAR 10 ALONG
OUR EASTERN BORDER...TO THE LOWER OR MID 30S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

WE POTENTIALLY SEE ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
MENTION OF ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING ISSUES. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA LARGELY
DRY WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF DEVELOP LIGHT SNOW. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WITH LOWS
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST FINALLY ADVANCES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING INTO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SLOWLY TAPERING DOWN INTO
TUESDAY. TO THE EAST...WHILE WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY TAPERING DOWN
THEY WILL REMAIN STRONGER...AND WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AND THE
STRONGER WINDS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-
     072-080-081-089-090-097.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ002-
     003-013-014-021-022-032.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 090043 CCA
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD...CORRECTION
643 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG WINDS AND PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS CONTINUE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL ISSUES IN THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE EXTREMELY
STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND...WE ARE CONTINUING TO
SEE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REMAIN NEAR 50 KNOTS. CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE STREAMERS OF STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ARE HAVING
NO ISSUES PRODUCING SNOWFLAKES...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE LAYER
RESIDES IN THE DGZ.

TRENDS INTO THE EVENING CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAKENING WINDS...ALBEIT
VERY SLOWLY. HAVE CONCERNS THAT WE MAY LIKELY STAY WELL MIXED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF I-29...WITH
RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 40 KNOT GUSTS ALL
THE WAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT ANY REMAINING STRATO-CU IN THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE SNOW FLURRIES. WILL BE ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR AREAS
CURRENTLY IN A BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT SO AS TO NOT
ADVERTISE ANY DRASTICALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ONCE BLIZZARD
WARNING EXPIRES AT 00Z.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY OVER MINNESOTA/IOWA. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW AS GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 30 TOWARD TO
MO RIVER VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.

MODELS REMAIN UNCERTAIN REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE BOUNDARY WILL SET
UP INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT ACROSS NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THINK THAT THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER. STRONGER FORCING AND
LIFT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHWARD AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ADVANCES EAST INTO SOUTHEAST SD.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...WITH
LIGHT SNOW FORMING ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVES AS THE MID
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES... HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER
WITH THE ONSET THAN THE REST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. SNOW EXITS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND COULD
PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION WITH SOME FAIRLY HIGH
SNOW RATIOS IN OUR EASTERN HALF. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
BE SUBSTANTIAL FROM WEST TO EAST...RANGING FROM HIGHS NEAR 10 ALONG
OUR EASTERN BORDER...TO THE LOWER OR MID 30S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

WE POTENTIALLY SEE ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
MENTION OF ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING ISSUES. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA LARGELY
DRY WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF DEVELOP LIGHT SNOW. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WITH LOWS
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST FINALLY ADVANCES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING INTO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FOCUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I29 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD
IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PERSIST AROUND 25 TO 40 KT IN THIS
AREA...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE DECREASING WINDS...OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY OVERALL. VFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO RETURN FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040-
     055-056-062-067-071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ039-054-060-061-
     065-066-068>070.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ098.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-
     072-080-081-089-090-097.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001-
     012-020-031.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ002-
     003-013-014-021-022-032.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ002-003-013-
     014-021-022-032.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ014.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 090043 CCA
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD...CORRECTION
643 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG WINDS AND PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS CONTINUE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL ISSUES IN THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE EXTREMELY
STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND...WE ARE CONTINUING TO
SEE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REMAIN NEAR 50 KNOTS. CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE STREAMERS OF STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ARE HAVING
NO ISSUES PRODUCING SNOWFLAKES...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE LAYER
RESIDES IN THE DGZ.

TRENDS INTO THE EVENING CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAKENING WINDS...ALBEIT
VERY SLOWLY. HAVE CONCERNS THAT WE MAY LIKELY STAY WELL MIXED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF I-29...WITH
RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 40 KNOT GUSTS ALL
THE WAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT ANY REMAINING STRATO-CU IN THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE SNOW FLURRIES. WILL BE ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR AREAS
CURRENTLY IN A BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT SO AS TO NOT
ADVERTISE ANY DRASTICALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ONCE BLIZZARD
WARNING EXPIRES AT 00Z.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY OVER MINNESOTA/IOWA. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW AS GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 30 TOWARD TO
MO RIVER VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.

MODELS REMAIN UNCERTAIN REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE BOUNDARY WILL SET
UP INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT ACROSS NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THINK THAT THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER. STRONGER FORCING AND
LIFT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHWARD AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ADVANCES EAST INTO SOUTHEAST SD.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...WITH
LIGHT SNOW FORMING ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVES AS THE MID
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES... HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER
WITH THE ONSET THAN THE REST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. SNOW EXITS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND COULD
PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION WITH SOME FAIRLY HIGH
SNOW RATIOS IN OUR EASTERN HALF. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
BE SUBSTANTIAL FROM WEST TO EAST...RANGING FROM HIGHS NEAR 10 ALONG
OUR EASTERN BORDER...TO THE LOWER OR MID 30S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

WE POTENTIALLY SEE ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
MENTION OF ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING ISSUES. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA LARGELY
DRY WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF DEVELOP LIGHT SNOW. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WITH LOWS
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST FINALLY ADVANCES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING INTO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FOCUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I29 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD
IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PERSIST AROUND 25 TO 40 KT IN THIS
AREA...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE DECREASING WINDS...OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY OVERALL. VFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO RETURN FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040-
     055-056-062-067-071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ039-054-060-061-
     065-066-068>070.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ098.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-
     072-080-081-089-090-097.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001-
     012-020-031.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ002-
     003-013-014-021-022-032.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ002-003-013-
     014-021-022-032.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ014.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 090043 CCA
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD...CORRECTION
643 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG WINDS AND PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS CONTINUE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL ISSUES IN THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE EXTREMELY
STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND...WE ARE CONTINUING TO
SEE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REMAIN NEAR 50 KNOTS. CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE STREAMERS OF STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ARE HAVING
NO ISSUES PRODUCING SNOWFLAKES...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE LAYER
RESIDES IN THE DGZ.

TRENDS INTO THE EVENING CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAKENING WINDS...ALBEIT
VERY SLOWLY. HAVE CONCERNS THAT WE MAY LIKELY STAY WELL MIXED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF I-29...WITH
RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 40 KNOT GUSTS ALL
THE WAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT ANY REMAINING STRATO-CU IN THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE SNOW FLURRIES. WILL BE ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR AREAS
CURRENTLY IN A BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT SO AS TO NOT
ADVERTISE ANY DRASTICALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ONCE BLIZZARD
WARNING EXPIRES AT 00Z.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY OVER MINNESOTA/IOWA. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW AS GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 30 TOWARD TO
MO RIVER VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.

MODELS REMAIN UNCERTAIN REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE BOUNDARY WILL SET
UP INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT ACROSS NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THINK THAT THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER. STRONGER FORCING AND
LIFT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHWARD AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ADVANCES EAST INTO SOUTHEAST SD.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...WITH
LIGHT SNOW FORMING ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVES AS THE MID
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES... HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER
WITH THE ONSET THAN THE REST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. SNOW EXITS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND COULD
PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION WITH SOME FAIRLY HIGH
SNOW RATIOS IN OUR EASTERN HALF. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
BE SUBSTANTIAL FROM WEST TO EAST...RANGING FROM HIGHS NEAR 10 ALONG
OUR EASTERN BORDER...TO THE LOWER OR MID 30S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

WE POTENTIALLY SEE ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
MENTION OF ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING ISSUES. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA LARGELY
DRY WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF DEVELOP LIGHT SNOW. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WITH LOWS
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST FINALLY ADVANCES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING INTO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FOCUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I29 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD
IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PERSIST AROUND 25 TO 40 KT IN THIS
AREA...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE DECREASING WINDS...OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY OVERALL. VFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO RETURN FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040-
     055-056-062-067-071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ039-054-060-061-
     065-066-068>070.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ098.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-
     072-080-081-089-090-097.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001-
     012-020-031.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ002-
     003-013-014-021-022-032.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ002-003-013-
     014-021-022-032.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ014.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 090043 CCA
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD...CORRECTION
643 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG WINDS AND PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS CONTINUE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL ISSUES IN THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE EXTREMELY
STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND...WE ARE CONTINUING TO
SEE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REMAIN NEAR 50 KNOTS. CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE STREAMERS OF STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ARE HAVING
NO ISSUES PRODUCING SNOWFLAKES...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE LAYER
RESIDES IN THE DGZ.

TRENDS INTO THE EVENING CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAKENING WINDS...ALBEIT
VERY SLOWLY. HAVE CONCERNS THAT WE MAY LIKELY STAY WELL MIXED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF I-29...WITH
RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 40 KNOT GUSTS ALL
THE WAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT ANY REMAINING STRATO-CU IN THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE SNOW FLURRIES. WILL BE ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR AREAS
CURRENTLY IN A BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT SO AS TO NOT
ADVERTISE ANY DRASTICALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ONCE BLIZZARD
WARNING EXPIRES AT 00Z.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY OVER MINNESOTA/IOWA. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW AS GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 30 TOWARD TO
MO RIVER VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.

MODELS REMAIN UNCERTAIN REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE BOUNDARY WILL SET
UP INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT ACROSS NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THINK THAT THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER. STRONGER FORCING AND
LIFT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHWARD AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ADVANCES EAST INTO SOUTHEAST SD.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...WITH
LIGHT SNOW FORMING ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVES AS THE MID
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES... HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER
WITH THE ONSET THAN THE REST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. SNOW EXITS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND COULD
PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION WITH SOME FAIRLY HIGH
SNOW RATIOS IN OUR EASTERN HALF. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
BE SUBSTANTIAL FROM WEST TO EAST...RANGING FROM HIGHS NEAR 10 ALONG
OUR EASTERN BORDER...TO THE LOWER OR MID 30S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

WE POTENTIALLY SEE ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
MENTION OF ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING ISSUES. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA LARGELY
DRY WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF DEVELOP LIGHT SNOW. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WITH LOWS
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST FINALLY ADVANCES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING INTO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FOCUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I29 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD
IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PERSIST AROUND 25 TO 40 KT IN THIS
AREA...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE DECREASING WINDS...OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY OVERALL. VFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO RETURN FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040-
     055-056-062-067-071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ039-054-060-061-
     065-066-068>070.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ098.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-
     072-080-081-089-090-097.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001-
     012-020-031.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ002-
     003-013-014-021-022-032.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ002-003-013-
     014-021-022-032.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ014.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 090043 CCA
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD...CORRECTION
643 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG WINDS AND PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS CONTINUE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL ISSUES IN THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE EXTREMELY
STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND...WE ARE CONTINUING TO
SEE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REMAIN NEAR 50 KNOTS. CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE STREAMERS OF STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ARE HAVING
NO ISSUES PRODUCING SNOWFLAKES...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE LAYER
RESIDES IN THE DGZ.

TRENDS INTO THE EVENING CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAKENING WINDS...ALBEIT
VERY SLOWLY. HAVE CONCERNS THAT WE MAY LIKELY STAY WELL MIXED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF I-29...WITH
RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 40 KNOT GUSTS ALL
THE WAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT ANY REMAINING STRATO-CU IN THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE SNOW FLURRIES. WILL BE ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR AREAS
CURRENTLY IN A BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT SO AS TO NOT
ADVERTISE ANY DRASTICALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ONCE BLIZZARD
WARNING EXPIRES AT 00Z.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY OVER MINNESOTA/IOWA. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW AS GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 30 TOWARD TO
MO RIVER VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.

MODELS REMAIN UNCERTAIN REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE BOUNDARY WILL SET
UP INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT ACROSS NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THINK THAT THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER. STRONGER FORCING AND
LIFT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHWARD AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ADVANCES EAST INTO SOUTHEAST SD.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...WITH
LIGHT SNOW FORMING ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVES AS THE MID
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES... HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER
WITH THE ONSET THAN THE REST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. SNOW EXITS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND COULD
PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION WITH SOME FAIRLY HIGH
SNOW RATIOS IN OUR EASTERN HALF. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
BE SUBSTANTIAL FROM WEST TO EAST...RANGING FROM HIGHS NEAR 10 ALONG
OUR EASTERN BORDER...TO THE LOWER OR MID 30S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

WE POTENTIALLY SEE ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
MENTION OF ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING ISSUES. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA LARGELY
DRY WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF DEVELOP LIGHT SNOW. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WITH LOWS
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST FINALLY ADVANCES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING INTO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FOCUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I29 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD
IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PERSIST AROUND 25 TO 40 KT IN THIS
AREA...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE DECREASING WINDS...OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY OVERALL. VFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO RETURN FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040-
     055-056-062-067-071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ039-054-060-061-
     065-066-068>070.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ098.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-
     072-080-081-089-090-097.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001-
     012-020-031.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ002-
     003-013-014-021-022-032.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ002-003-013-
     014-021-022-032.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ014.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KUNR 090026
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
526 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...RESPECTIVELY...WITH OUR
CWA IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE
QUITE BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH MANY AREAS
STILL SEEING 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH 40 MPH GUSTS. SHOULD SEE
WINDS SUBSIDE SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE CWA.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLACK HILLS
REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT DRIER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ITS GENERALLY UNDER FIVE THOUSAND FEET
IN DEPTH...AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND INSTEAD MENTION FLURRIES IN THE HILLS STARTING AFTER
06Z.

BY TUESDAY...A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS. FORCING ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
LOOK WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. P-TYPE COULD BE INTERESTING...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED CONDITIONS BETWEEN 0 TO -10 C AND DRIER AIR IN THE
DGZ...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FZDZ/-FZRA. HOWEVER...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-RA/-SN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MIGHT NEED TO
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FZDZ-/-FZRA IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES IN WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPS.

THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND NEARLY OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AND WARMER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. MID/LEVEL
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WEST IN THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA COOLING
DOWN FRIDAY-SAT. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUN- MON...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP
NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS
TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SOME MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER
TUESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR IN THE WEST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 090026
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
526 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...RESPECTIVELY...WITH OUR
CWA IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE
QUITE BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH MANY AREAS
STILL SEEING 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH 40 MPH GUSTS. SHOULD SEE
WINDS SUBSIDE SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE CWA.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLACK HILLS
REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT DRIER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ITS GENERALLY UNDER FIVE THOUSAND FEET
IN DEPTH...AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND INSTEAD MENTION FLURRIES IN THE HILLS STARTING AFTER
06Z.

BY TUESDAY...A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS. FORCING ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
LOOK WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. P-TYPE COULD BE INTERESTING...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED CONDITIONS BETWEEN 0 TO -10 C AND DRIER AIR IN THE
DGZ...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FZDZ/-FZRA. HOWEVER...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-RA/-SN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MIGHT NEED TO
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FZDZ-/-FZRA IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES IN WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPS.

THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND NEARLY OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AND WARMER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. MID/LEVEL
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WEST IN THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA COOLING
DOWN FRIDAY-SAT. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUN- MON...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP
NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS
TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SOME MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER
TUESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR IN THE WEST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON



000
FXUS63 KUNR 090026
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
526 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...RESPECTIVELY...WITH OUR
CWA IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE
QUITE BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH MANY AREAS
STILL SEEING 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH 40 MPH GUSTS. SHOULD SEE
WINDS SUBSIDE SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE CWA.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLACK HILLS
REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT DRIER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ITS GENERALLY UNDER FIVE THOUSAND FEET
IN DEPTH...AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND INSTEAD MENTION FLURRIES IN THE HILLS STARTING AFTER
06Z.

BY TUESDAY...A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS. FORCING ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
LOOK WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. P-TYPE COULD BE INTERESTING...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED CONDITIONS BETWEEN 0 TO -10 C AND DRIER AIR IN THE
DGZ...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FZDZ/-FZRA. HOWEVER...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-RA/-SN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MIGHT NEED TO
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FZDZ-/-FZRA IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES IN WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPS.

THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND NEARLY OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AND WARMER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. MID/LEVEL
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WEST IN THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA COOLING
DOWN FRIDAY-SAT. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUN- MON...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP
NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS
TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SOME MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER
TUESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR IN THE WEST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KABR 082332 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
532 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A LITTLE EARLY THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY ALL OBSERVATIONS AND
WEB CAMERAS ARE NOT SHOWING REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWA...WITH AN
END TO ANY BLOWING SNOW BY MID EVENING. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT A SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE.  AFTER LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS/PREDICTED UVM...AM NOT
PARTICULARLY EXCITED ABOUT PCPN AMOUNTS...OR POPS FOR THAT MATTER.
SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST PERHAPS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST.  ON
WEDNESDAY A MORE PROLIFIC SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IN FAST UPPER
FLOW...WITH A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD PUSH
OFF INTO MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE TERM...WITH CHILLY AND BELOW
NORMAL READINGS IN THE EAST...AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS OUT WEST
RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST...LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER OUR AREA...AT LEAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. UNDER THIS
PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL
AND THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME WHEN WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WE WILL START TO SEE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND HOWEVER.
UNFORTUNATELY...THERE ISN`T MUCH IN THE WAY OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND
CONSISTENCY BY THE TAIL END OF THE LONG TERM. MODELS DO AGREE ON A
VERY STRONG 500 MB LOW MOVING INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION...RESULTING
IN COLD AIR AND A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH SINKING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WHERE MODELS DISAGREE HOWEVER...IS HOW QUICKLY THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY...AND THE TIMING AND EFFECTS OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO FOLLOW. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT ALSO SUGGESTS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OVER
OUR REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES...SUPERBLEND
REMAINS THE FAVORED GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS
WILL THEN SPREAD OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFFECTING KMBG AND
KPIR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY BECOMING LIGHT AT ALL SITES TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 082332 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
532 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A LITTLE EARLY THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY ALL OBSERVATIONS AND
WEB CAMERAS ARE NOT SHOWING REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWA...WITH AN
END TO ANY BLOWING SNOW BY MID EVENING. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT A SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE.  AFTER LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS/PREDICTED UVM...AM NOT
PARTICULARLY EXCITED ABOUT PCPN AMOUNTS...OR POPS FOR THAT MATTER.
SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST PERHAPS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST.  ON
WEDNESDAY A MORE PROLIFIC SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IN FAST UPPER
FLOW...WITH A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD PUSH
OFF INTO MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE TERM...WITH CHILLY AND BELOW
NORMAL READINGS IN THE EAST...AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS OUT WEST
RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST...LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER OUR AREA...AT LEAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. UNDER THIS
PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL
AND THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME WHEN WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WE WILL START TO SEE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND HOWEVER.
UNFORTUNATELY...THERE ISN`T MUCH IN THE WAY OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND
CONSISTENCY BY THE TAIL END OF THE LONG TERM. MODELS DO AGREE ON A
VERY STRONG 500 MB LOW MOVING INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION...RESULTING
IN COLD AIR AND A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH SINKING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WHERE MODELS DISAGREE HOWEVER...IS HOW QUICKLY THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY...AND THE TIMING AND EFFECTS OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO FOLLOW. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT ALSO SUGGESTS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OVER
OUR REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES...SUPERBLEND
REMAINS THE FAVORED GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS
WILL THEN SPREAD OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFFECTING KMBG AND
KPIR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY BECOMING LIGHT AT ALL SITES TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE



000
FXUS63 KABR 082332 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
532 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A LITTLE EARLY THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY ALL OBSERVATIONS AND
WEB CAMERAS ARE NOT SHOWING REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWA...WITH AN
END TO ANY BLOWING SNOW BY MID EVENING. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT A SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE.  AFTER LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS/PREDICTED UVM...AM NOT
PARTICULARLY EXCITED ABOUT PCPN AMOUNTS...OR POPS FOR THAT MATTER.
SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST PERHAPS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST.  ON
WEDNESDAY A MORE PROLIFIC SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IN FAST UPPER
FLOW...WITH A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD PUSH
OFF INTO MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE TERM...WITH CHILLY AND BELOW
NORMAL READINGS IN THE EAST...AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS OUT WEST
RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST...LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER OUR AREA...AT LEAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. UNDER THIS
PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL
AND THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME WHEN WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WE WILL START TO SEE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND HOWEVER.
UNFORTUNATELY...THERE ISN`T MUCH IN THE WAY OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND
CONSISTENCY BY THE TAIL END OF THE LONG TERM. MODELS DO AGREE ON A
VERY STRONG 500 MB LOW MOVING INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION...RESULTING
IN COLD AIR AND A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH SINKING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WHERE MODELS DISAGREE HOWEVER...IS HOW QUICKLY THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY...AND THE TIMING AND EFFECTS OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO FOLLOW. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT ALSO SUGGESTS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OVER
OUR REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES...SUPERBLEND
REMAINS THE FAVORED GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS
WILL THEN SPREAD OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFFECTING KMBG AND
KPIR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY BECOMING LIGHT AT ALL SITES TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KFSD 082321
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
521 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG WINDS AND PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS CONTINUE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL ISSUES IN THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE EXTREMELY
STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND...WE ARE CONTINUING TO
SEE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REMAIN NEAR 50 KNOTS. CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE STREAMERS OF STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ARE HAVING
NO ISSUES PRODUCING SNOWFLAKES...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE LAYER
RESIDES IN THE DGZ.

TRENDS INTO THE EVENING CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAKENING WINDS...ALBEIT
VERY SLOWLY. HAVE CONCERNS THAT WE MAY LIKELY STAY WELL MIXED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF I-90...WITH
RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 40 KNOT GUSTS ALL
THE WAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT ANY REMAINING STRATO-CU IN THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE SNOW FLURRIES. WILL BE ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR AREAS
CURRENTLY IN A BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT SO AS TO NOT
ADVERTISE ANY DRASTICALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ONCE BLIZZARD
WARNING EXPIRES AT 00Z.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY OVER MINNESOTA/IOWA. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW AS GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 30 TOWARD TO
MO RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.

MODELS REMAIN UNCERTAIN REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE BOUNDARY WILL SET
UP INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT ACROSS NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THINK THAT THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER. STRONGER FORCING AND
LIFT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHWARD AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ADVANCES EAST INTO SOUTHEAST SD.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...WITH
LIGHT SNOW FORMING ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVES AS THE MID
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES... HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER
WITH THE ONSET THAN THE REST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. SNOW EXITS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND COULD
PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION WITH SOME FAIRLY HIGH
SNOW RATIOS IN OUR EASTERN HALF. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
BE SUBSTANTIAL FROM WEST TO EAST...RANGING FROM HIGHS NEAR 10 ALONG
OUR EASTERN BORDER...TO THE LOWER OR MID 30S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

WE POTENTIALLY SEE ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
MENTION OF ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING ISSUES. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA LARGELY
DRY WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF DEVELOP LIGHT SNOW. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WITH LOWS
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST FINALLY ADVANCES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING INTO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH TOMORROW. FARTHER TO
THE EAST THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
IOWA...STILL COULD HAVE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID
EVENING BEFORE ENDING LATE. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGER OVER THIS
AREA AND WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES IN
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040-
     055-056-062-067-071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ039-054-060-061-
     065-066-068>070.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ098.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-
     072-080-081-089-090-097.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001-
     012-020-031.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ002-
     003-013-014-021-022-032.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ002-003-013-
     014-021-022-032.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ014.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KUNR 082130
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
230 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...RESPECTIVELY...WITH OUR
CWA IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE
QUITE BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH MANY AREAS
STILL SEEING 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH 40 MPH GUSTS. SHOULD SEE
WINDS SUBSIDE SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE CWA.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLACK HILLS
REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT DRIER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ITS GENERALLY UNDER FIVE THOUSAND FEET
IN DEPTH...AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND INSTEAD MENTION FLURRIES IN THE HILLS STARTING AFTER
06Z.

BY TUESDAY...A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS. FORCING ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
LOOK WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. P-TYPE COULD BE INTERESTING...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED CONDITIONS BETWEEN 0 TO -10 C AND DRIER AIR IN THE
DGZ...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FZDZ/-FZRA. HOWEVER...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-RA/-SN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MIGHT NEED TO
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FZDZ-/-FZRA IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES IN WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPS.

THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND NEARLY OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AND WARMER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AMPLIFIED ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM
POSITIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW TO THE EAST. MID/LEVEL
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WEST IN THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA COOLING
DOWN FRIDAY-SAT. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUN- MON...SUPPORTING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER AREA...ESP
NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...MILD NW FLOW LOOKS
TO PERSIST BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH PER FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO
35KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...PRIMARILY ON THE SD PLAINS. SOME
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON THE WY PLAINS THIS EVENING AS STRONG
FLOW REMAINS ABOVE THE SFC.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KFSD 082103
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
303 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG WINDS AND PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS CONTINUE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL ISSUES IN THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE EXTREMELY
STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND...WE ARE CONTINUING TO
SEE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REMAIN NEAR 50 KNOTS. CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE STREAMERS OF STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ARE HAVING
NO ISSUES PRODUCING SNOWFLAKES...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE LAYER
RESIDES IN THE DGZ.

TRENDS INTO THE EVENING CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAKENING WINDS...ALBEIT
VERY SLOWLY. HAVE CONCERNS THAT WE MAY LIKELY STAY WELL MIXED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF I-90...WITH
RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 40 KNOT GUSTS ALL
THE WAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT ANY REMAINING STRATO-CU IN THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE SNOW FLURRIES. WILL BE ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR AREAS
CURRENTLY IN A BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT SO AS TO NOT
ADVERTISE ANY DRASTICALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ONCE BLIZZARD
WARNING EXPIRES AT 00Z.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY OVER MINNESOTA/IOWA. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW AS GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 30 TOWARD TO
MO RIVER VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.

MODELS REMAIN UNCERTAIN REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE BOUNDARY WILL SET
UP INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT ACROSS NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THINK THAT THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER. STRONGER FORCING AND
LIFT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHWARD AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ADVANCES EAST INTO SOUTHEAST SD.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...WITH
LIGHT SNOW FORMING ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVES AS THE MID
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES... HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER
WITH THE ONSET THAN THE REST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. SNOW EXITS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND COULD
PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION WITH SOME FAIRLY HIGH
SNOW RATIOS IN OUR EASTERN HALF. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
BE SUBSTANTIAL FROM WEST TO EAST...RANGING FROM HIGHS NEAR 10 ALONG
OUR EASTERN BORDER...TO THE LOWER OR MID 30S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

WE POTENTIALLY SEE ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
MENTION OF ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING ISSUES. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA LARGELY
DRY WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF DEVELOP LIGHT SNOW. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WITH LOWS
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST FINALLY ADVANCES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING INTO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FOCUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I29 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD
IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PERSIST AROUND 25 TO 40 KT IN THIS
AREA...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE DECREASING WINDS...OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY OVERALL. VFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO RETURN FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040-
     055-056-062-067-071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ039-054-060-061-
     065-066-068>070.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ098.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-
     072-080-081-089-090-097.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001-
     012-020-031.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ002-
     003-013-014-021-022-032.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ002-003-013-
     014-021-022-032.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ014.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KABR 082034
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
234 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWA...WITH AN
END TO ANY BLOWING SNOW BY MID EVENING. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT A SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE.  AFTER LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS/PREDICTED UVM...AM NOT
PARTICULARLY EXCITED ABOUT PCPN AMOUNTS...OR POPS FOR THAT MATTER.
SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST PERHAPS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST.  ON
WEDNESDAY A MORE PROLIFIC SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IN FAST UPPER
FLOW...WITH A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD PUSH
OFF INTO MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE TERM...WITH CHILLY AND BELOW
NORMAL READINGS IN THE EAST...AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS OUT WEST
RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST...LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER OUR AREA...AT LEAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. UNDER THIS
PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL
AND THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME WHEN WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WE WILL START TO SEE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND HOWEVER.
UNFORTUNATELY...THERE ISN`T MUCH IN THE WAY OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND
CONSISTENCY BY THE TAIL END OF THE LONG TERM. MODELS DO AGREE ON A
VERY STRONG 500 MB LOW MOVING INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION...RESULTING
IN COLD AIR AND A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH SINKING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WHERE MODELS DISAGREE HOWEVER...IS HOW QUICKLY THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY...AND THE TIMING AND EFFECTS OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO FOLLOW. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT ALSO SUGGESTS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OVER
OUR REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES...SUPERBLEND
REMAINS THE FAVORED GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE GUSTS TO 35 KTS OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO STILL DEALING WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
AS SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE KATY TAF SITE EXPECT VISIBILITY TO
PERIODICALLY BE REDUCED TO AROUND 2 MILES. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END
OR EXIT THE REGION BY OR BEFORE 00Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ008-
     020>023.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR




000
FXUS63 KABR 081738 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1138 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONTINUATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IS CONTINUING TO
CAUSE SOME VSBY ISSUES OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND WC MINNESOTA.
GIVEN THAT WIND WILL REMAIN GUSTY HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND BLOWING
SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS
FINE FOR NOW. UPDATES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...ON THE BACK SIDE
OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. VSBY AND WEB CAMS HAVE LARGELY BEEN OK
LOOKING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. BUT AT TIMES...VSBY IS BEING
KNOCKED DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. WILL GO AHEAD AND
LET THE WINTER WX ADVISORY RUN THROUGH 12Z AND LIKELY LET IT EXPIRE
AT THAT TIME. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY TO REPLACE IT AT 12Z
AS WINDS ARE STILL PRETTY STRONG OVER THE GLACIAL LAKES REGION AND I-
29 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST SD.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BRING SOME COLDER
AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE...WARMER AIR WILL
HOLD STRONG OVER WESTERN SD. MODELS STILL TRYING TO SHOW SOME LIGHT
SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR
NOW HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER CENTRAL SD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. NOTHING IN THERE FOR WEDNESDAY JUST YET BUT THE EC AND GFS
ARE HINTING AS SOMETHING SO CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INSERTED IF 12Z
RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN US WITH A LARGE EASTERN US TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUT
OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A GOOD CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA TO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S FAR WEST. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW DECENT MEAN RH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THUS...THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST
THEN PUSHES EAST WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS A
RESULT...WARMER AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ALSO SHOW A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES COMING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH ONE
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE OTHER ONE FOR SUNDAY. EACH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH EITHER ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE GUSTS TO 35 KTS OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO STILL DEALING WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
AS SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE KATY TAF SITE EXPECT VISIBILITY TO
PERIODICALLY BE REDUCED TO AROUND 2 MILES. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END
OR EXIT THE REGION BY OR BEFORE 00Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ008-
     020>023.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK/SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SERR




000
FXUS63 KABR 081738 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1138 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONTINUATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IS CONTINUING TO
CAUSE SOME VSBY ISSUES OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND WC MINNESOTA.
GIVEN THAT WIND WILL REMAIN GUSTY HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND BLOWING
SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS
FINE FOR NOW. UPDATES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...ON THE BACK SIDE
OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. VSBY AND WEB CAMS HAVE LARGELY BEEN OK
LOOKING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. BUT AT TIMES...VSBY IS BEING
KNOCKED DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. WILL GO AHEAD AND
LET THE WINTER WX ADVISORY RUN THROUGH 12Z AND LIKELY LET IT EXPIRE
AT THAT TIME. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY TO REPLACE IT AT 12Z
AS WINDS ARE STILL PRETTY STRONG OVER THE GLACIAL LAKES REGION AND I-
29 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST SD.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BRING SOME COLDER
AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE...WARMER AIR WILL
HOLD STRONG OVER WESTERN SD. MODELS STILL TRYING TO SHOW SOME LIGHT
SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR
NOW HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER CENTRAL SD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. NOTHING IN THERE FOR WEDNESDAY JUST YET BUT THE EC AND GFS
ARE HINTING AS SOMETHING SO CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INSERTED IF 12Z
RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN US WITH A LARGE EASTERN US TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUT
OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A GOOD CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA TO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S FAR WEST. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW DECENT MEAN RH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THUS...THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST
THEN PUSHES EAST WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS A
RESULT...WARMER AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ALSO SHOW A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES COMING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH ONE
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE OTHER ONE FOR SUNDAY. EACH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH EITHER ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE GUSTS TO 35 KTS OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO STILL DEALING WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
AS SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE KATY TAF SITE EXPECT VISIBILITY TO
PERIODICALLY BE REDUCED TO AROUND 2 MILES. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END
OR EXIT THE REGION BY OR BEFORE 00Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ008-
     020>023.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK/SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SERR




000
FXUS63 KABR 081738 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1138 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONTINUATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IS CONTINUING TO
CAUSE SOME VSBY ISSUES OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND WC MINNESOTA.
GIVEN THAT WIND WILL REMAIN GUSTY HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND BLOWING
SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS
FINE FOR NOW. UPDATES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...ON THE BACK SIDE
OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. VSBY AND WEB CAMS HAVE LARGELY BEEN OK
LOOKING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. BUT AT TIMES...VSBY IS BEING
KNOCKED DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. WILL GO AHEAD AND
LET THE WINTER WX ADVISORY RUN THROUGH 12Z AND LIKELY LET IT EXPIRE
AT THAT TIME. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY TO REPLACE IT AT 12Z
AS WINDS ARE STILL PRETTY STRONG OVER THE GLACIAL LAKES REGION AND I-
29 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST SD.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BRING SOME COLDER
AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE...WARMER AIR WILL
HOLD STRONG OVER WESTERN SD. MODELS STILL TRYING TO SHOW SOME LIGHT
SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR
NOW HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER CENTRAL SD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. NOTHING IN THERE FOR WEDNESDAY JUST YET BUT THE EC AND GFS
ARE HINTING AS SOMETHING SO CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INSERTED IF 12Z
RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN US WITH A LARGE EASTERN US TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUT
OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A GOOD CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA TO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S FAR WEST. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW DECENT MEAN RH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THUS...THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST
THEN PUSHES EAST WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS A
RESULT...WARMER AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ALSO SHOW A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES COMING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH ONE
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE OTHER ONE FOR SUNDAY. EACH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH EITHER ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE GUSTS TO 35 KTS OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO STILL DEALING WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
AS SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE KATY TAF SITE EXPECT VISIBILITY TO
PERIODICALLY BE REDUCED TO AROUND 2 MILES. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END
OR EXIT THE REGION BY OR BEFORE 00Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ008-
     020>023.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK/SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SERR



000
FXUS63 KUNR 081733
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1033 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER LOW SPINS OVER WISCONSIN...WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE WEST COAST...AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN. STILL A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS HAVE
DECREASED BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY AT 20-30 KTS. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S.

REGION WILL STAY UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EARLY THIS WEEK.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS TODAY...STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE LOW-END
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S...UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TRANSITIONING EASTWARD...AND WARMER
AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL SD...AND AS SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER
ENERGY MOVE OVER THE REGION...MAY BE A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT.
MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HILLS.
OVERALL THESE AREAS MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD
TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VERY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED ON WED AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO OUR WRN ZONES AND W/NW BL FLOW (DOWNSLOPE) PREVAILS. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
NRN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND PUSH A BACKDOOR CDFNT INTO THE CWFA. SOME
LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT ANTICIPATED. THIS COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND DEPENDENT ON
HOW FAR WEST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT PCPN TO OUR FAR WRN ZONES...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW
WINDS UP TO 35KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...PRIMARILY ON THE SD
PLAINS. SOME WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON THE WY PLAINS THIS EVENING
AS STRONG FLOW REMAINS ABOVE THE SFC.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KFSD 081733
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1133 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HEADLINE DECISIONS ARE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE THIS MORNING. AS
ANTICIPATED...DID NOT RECEIVE A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THIS
SYSTEM...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY MEASUREMENT DIFFICULT AT BEST GIVEN
WIDESPREAD 30-50+ MPH WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD OF FALLING SNOW.
SEEING A NUMBER OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITHIN BLIZZARD WARNING AREA
REPORTING VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE AS OF 3 AM...WITH REPORTS OF NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY IN OPEN COUNTRY. OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
WRAP SOUTHWARD NEAR/EAST OF I-29 THROUGH MIDDAY...AS ANOTHER LOBE OF
ENERGY DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN SNOW
COVERAGE AND PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AS SYSTEM PULLS EAST. FOR THIS REASON...18Z EXPIRATION
TIME OF THE WINTER HEADLINES SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL LINGER OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF
THE WIND ADVISORY WEST OF I-29 INTO THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. QUANDARY
COMES WITH WHAT TO DO FOR HEADLINES IN OUR EAST WHERE THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/BLIZZARD WARNING EXPIRE AT 18Z. CONTEMPLATED
ISSUING SHORT WIND ADVISORY TO COVER THE STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST...BUT HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER WINTER
HEADLINES WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 18Z. THUS OPTED TO FORGO
WIND ADVISORY IN THE EAST FOR NOW...AND INSTEAD WILL LET DAY SHIFT
MONITOR CONDITIONS AND MAKE DECISION LATER THIS MORNING WHETHER ANY
WINTER HEADLINES NEED TO BE EXTENDED...OR IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE
ENOUGH THAT THEY CAN BE REPLACED WITH A WIND ADVISORY.

BEYOND THE HEADLINES...TEMPERATURES WILL SEE LITTLE MOVEMENT TODAY
AS STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO REINFORCE COLD AIR MASS WHICH
SETTLED IN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S NEAR
AND EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY...WITH READINGS INTO THE LOWER 30S IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...BUT WILL
REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE IN THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO
WIND CHILLS IN THE EAST TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ARE SLATED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NOSING IN ALONG THE I 29 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THE DAY. LOWER LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT NOW LOOKS TO LARGELY REMAIN
WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE DAY TO
FIND ANY LARGER SCALE MEAGER SUPPORT FOR LIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE...HAVE SHAVED BACK THE LOW SNOW CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...RELEGATING TO THE EXTREME WEST LATE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD SEE
SOME WIND CHILLS DIP TOWARD ADVISORY LEVELS OF -20 TO -25 IF THEY
DO NOT DROP MORE THAN EXPECTED.

BAROCLINIC ZONE DOES APPEAR TO WANDER EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY WITH
WAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. A LITTLE INCREASE IN
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...BUT MODELS ALL OVER THE BOARD WITH LOCATION
OF SHALLOWLY SLOPED FRONTAL ZONE.  IF GREATER CONSISTENCY CAN BE
FOUND IN SOLUTION...WOULD BE MORE COMFORTABLE IN ADVERTISING
LEGITIMATE LIGHT SNOW CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS THINGS STAND...HAVE ONLY RUN WITH A FEW FLURRIES WITH
TEMPS IN FAVORABLE ICE PRODUCTION RANGE.  LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD
MAINLY KEEP ANY MORE NOTABLE WARMING BOTTLED UP WEST...PERHAPS
MODERATING A BIT IN THE EXTREME WESTERN AREAS.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND
WITH DEEP TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE WEST...REINFORCED BY WAVE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE LARGER SCALE RIDGE BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD
THIS WEEKEND. WITH SOME AGREEMENT IN WAVE / BUT AGAIN NOT IN THERMAL
BOUNDARY LOCATION / HAVE CARRIED A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA...BOTH AWAY FROM DRIER RIDGE EAST
AND THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WEST. BEHIND WAVE...APPEARANCES
ARE TO ALLOW A STRONGER PUSH OF SHALLOW COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.  TREND CONTINUES TO BE COLDER FOR
TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND HAVE ADJUSTED LOWER...THOUGH
MOST LIKELY NOT NEARLY ENOUGH FOR SATURDAY MORNING IF POTENTIAL
OVERLAP OF LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MATERIALIZES.

A BIT STRONGER WAVE MAY FLATTEN RIDGE TOWARD SUNDAY. DEVELOPMENT OF
WARM ADVECTION ZONE LOOKS TO SATURATE UP A BIT MORE EAST OF THE
AREA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP IN SOME LOW POPS. SOME FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT THERMAL RANGES BETWEEN SOLUTIONS...WITH ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO LET THINGS BE FOR NOW...SAFE ENOUGH TO ADVERTISE
AN AWAITED MODERATION TO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FOCUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I29 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD
IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PERSIST AROUND 25 TO 40 KT IN THIS
AREA...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE DECREASING WINDS...OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY OVERALL. VFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO RETURN FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040-
     055-056-062-067-071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ065-066-
     068>070.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR SDZ038-052-053-058-059-
     064.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ039-054-060-
     061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ098.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001-
     012-020-031.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ002-003-013-
     014-021-022-032.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ014.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ013.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KABR 081612 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1012 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONTINUATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IS CONTINUING TO
CAUSE SOME VSBY ISSUES OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND WC MINNESOTA.
GIVEN THAT WIND WILL REMAIN GUSTY HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND BLOWING
SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS
FINE FOR NOW. UPDATES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...ON THE BACK SIDE
OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. VSBY AND WEB CAMS HAVE LARGELY BEEN OK
LOOKING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. BUT AT TIMES...VSBY IS BEING
KNOCKED DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. WILL GO AHEAD AND
LET THE WINTER WX ADVISORY RUN THROUGH 12Z AND LIKELY LET IT EXPIRE
AT THAT TIME. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY TO REPLACE IT AT 12Z
AS WINDS ARE STILL PRETTY STRONG OVER THE GLACIAL LAKES REGION AND I-
29 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST SD.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BRING SOME COLDER
AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE...WARMER AIR WILL
HOLD STRONG OVER WESTERN SD. MODELS STILL TRYING TO SHOW SOME LIGHT
SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR
NOW HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER CENTRAL SD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. NOTHING IN THERE FOR WEDNESDAY JUST YET BUT THE EC AND GFS
ARE HINTING AS SOMETHING SO CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INSERTED IF 12Z
RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN US WITH A LARGE EASTERN US TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUT
OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A GOOD CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA TO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S FAR WEST. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW DECENT MEAN RH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THUS...THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST
THEN PUSHES EAST WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS A
RESULT...WARMER AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ALSO SHOW A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES COMING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH ONE
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE OTHER ONE FOR SUNDAY. EACH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH EITHER ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT ABR AND ATY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN 3
MILES AT TIMES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN UP THROUGH THE DAY
IN THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE BEFORE FALLING OFF AT ALL LOCATIONS THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE STRATUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. PIR AND MBG ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING
OVER.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ008-
     020>023.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR




000
FXUS63 KFSD 081215
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
615 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HEADLINE DECISIONS ARE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE THIS MORNING. AS
ANTICIPATED...DID NOT RECEIVE A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THIS
SYSTEM...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY MEASUREMENT DIFFICULT AT BEST GIVEN
WIDESPREAD 30-50+ MPH WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD OF FALLING SNOW.
SEEING A NUMBER OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITHIN BLIZZARD WARNING AREA
REPORTING VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE AS OF 3 AM...WITH REPORTS OF NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY IN OPEN COUNTRY. OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
WRAP SOUTHWARD NEAR/EAST OF I-29 THROUGH MIDDAY...AS ANOTHER LOBE OF
ENERGY DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN SNOW
COVERAGE AND PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AS SYSTEM PULLS EAST. FOR THIS REASON...18Z EXPIRATION
TIME OF THE WINTER HEADLINES SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL LINGER OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF
THE WIND ADVISORY WEST OF I-29 INTO THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. QUANDARY
COMES WITH WHAT TO DO FOR HEADLINES IN OUR EAST WHERE THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/BLIZZARD WARNING EXPIRE AT 18Z. CONTEMPLATED
ISSUING SHORT WIND ADVISORY TO COVER THE STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST...BUT HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER WINTER
HEADLINES WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 18Z. THUS OPTED TO FORGO
WIND ADVISORY IN THE EAST FOR NOW...AND INSTEAD WILL LET DAY SHIFT
MONITOR CONDITIONS AND MAKE DECISION LATER THIS MORNING WHETHER ANY
WINTER HEADLINES NEED TO BE EXTENDED...OR IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE
ENOUGH THAT THEY CAN BE REPLACED WITH A WIND ADVISORY.

BEYOND THE HEADLINES...TEMPERATURES WILL SEE LITTLE MOVEMENT TODAY
AS STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO REINFORCE COLD AIR MASS WHICH
SETTLED IN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S NEAR
AND EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY...WITH READINGS INTO THE LOWER 30S IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...BUT WILL
REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE IN THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO
WIND CHILLS IN THE EAST TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ARE SLATED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NOSING IN ALONG THE I 29 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THE DAY. LOWER LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT NOW LOOKS TO LARGELY REMAIN
WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE DAY TO
FIND ANY LARGER SCALE MEAGER SUPPORT FOR LIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE...HAVE SHAVED BACK THE LOW SNOW CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...RELEGATING TO THE EXTREME WEST LATE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD SEE
SOME WIND CHILLS DIP TOWARD ADVISORY LEVELS OF -20 TO -25 IF THEY
DO NOT DROP MORE THAN EXPECTED.

BAROCLINIC ZONE DOES APPEAR TO WANDER EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY WITH
WAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. A LITTLE INCREASE IN
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...BUT MODELS ALL OVER THE BOARD WITH LOCATION
OF SHALLOWLY SLOPED FRONTAL ZONE.  IF GREATER CONSISTENCY CAN BE
FOUND IN SOLUTION...WOULD BE MORE COMFORTABLE IN ADVERTISING
LEGITIMATE LIGHT SNOW CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS THINGS STAND...HAVE ONLY RUN WITH A FEW FLURRIES WITH
TEMPS IN FAVORABLE ICE PRODUCTION RANGE.  LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD
MAINLY KEEP ANY MORE NOTABLE WARMING BOTTLED UP WEST...PERHAPS
MODERATING A BIT IN THE EXTREME WESTERN AREAS.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND
WITH DEEP TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE WEST...REINFORCED BY WAVE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE LARGER SCALE RIDGE BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD
THIS WEEKEND. WITH SOME AGREEMENT IN WAVE / BUT AGAIN NOT IN THERMAL
BOUNDARY LOCATION / HAVE CARRIED A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA...BOTH AWAY FROM DRIER RIDGE EAST
AND THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WEST. BEHIND WAVE...APPEARANCES
ARE TO ALLOW A STRONGER PUSH OF SHALLOW COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.  TREND CONTINUES TO BE COLDER FOR
TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND HAVE ADJUSTED LOWER...THOUGH
MOST LIKELY NOT NEARLY ENOUGH FOR SATURDAY MORNING IF POTENTIAL
OVERLAP OF LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MATERIALIZES.

A BIT STRONGER WAVE MAY FLATTEN RIDGE TOWARD SUNDAY. DEVELOPMENT OF
WARM ADVECTION ZONE LOOKS TO SATURATE UP A BIT MORE EAST OF THE
AREA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP IN SOME LOW POPS. SOME FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT THERMAL RANGES BETWEEN SOLUTIONS...WITH ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO LET THINGS BE FOR NOW...SAFE ENOUGH TO ADVERTISE
AN AWAITED MODERATION TO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE TAF PERIOD. WIDESPREAD IFR-LIFR VISIBILITY IN SNOW/BLOWING
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TOWARD THE I-29 CORRIDOR
AND POINTS WEST. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-LATE
MORNING...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS COVERAGE OF FALLING SNOW DECREASES. NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING 30-40KTS OR MORE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET...EASING
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL GUSTING 20-30KT THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR SDZ040-055-056-
     062-067-071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ065-066-
     068>070.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR SDZ038-052-053-058-059-
     064.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ039-054-060-
     061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ098.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-
     090-097.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ001-012-020-
     031.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-021-
     022-032.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ014.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ013.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KABR 081200 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
600 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO
EXPECTANT WINDS...LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW
REMAINING.

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...ON THE BACK SIDE
OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. VSBY AND WEB CAMS HAVE LARGELY BEEN OK
LOOKING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. BUT AT TIMES...VSBY IS BEING
KNOCKED DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. WILL GO AHEAD AND
LET THE WINTER WX ADVISORY RUN THROUGH 12Z AND LIKELY LET IT EXPIRE
AT THAT TIME. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY TO REPLACE IT AT 12Z
AS WINDS ARE STILL PRETTY STRONG OVER THE GLACIAL LAKES REGION AND I-
29 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST SD.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BRING SOME COLDER
AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE...WARMER AIR WILL
HOLD STRONG OVER WESTERN SD. MODELS STILL TRYING TO SHOW SOME LIGHT
SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR
NOW HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER CENTRAL SD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. NOTHING IN THERE FOR WEDNESDAY JUST YET BUT THE EC AND GFS
ARE HINTING AS SOMETHING SO CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INSERTED IF 12Z
RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN US WITH A LARGE EASTERN US TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUT
OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A GOOD CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA TO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S FAR WEST. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW DECENT MEAN RH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THUS...THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST
THEN PUSHES EAST WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS A
RESULT...WARMER AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ALSO SHOW A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES COMING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH ONE
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE OTHER ONE FOR SUNDAY. EACH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH EITHER ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT ABR AND ATY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN 3
MILES AT TIMES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN UP THROUGH THE DAY
IN THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE BEFORE FALLING OFF AT ALL LOCATIONS THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE STRATUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. PIR AND MBG ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING
OVER.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR SDZ008-020>023.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR




000
FXUS63 KFSD 081004
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
404 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HEADLINE DECISIONS ARE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE THIS MORNING. AS
ANTICIPATED...DID NOT RECEIVE A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THIS
SYSTEM...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY MEASUREMENT DIFFICULT AT BEST GIVEN
WIDESPREAD 30-50+ MPH WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD OF FALLING SNOW.
SEEING A NUMBER OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITHIN BLIZZARD WARNING AREA
REPORTING VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE AS OF 3 AM...WITH REPORTS OF NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY IN OPEN COUNTRY. OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
WRAP SOUTHWARD NEAR/EAST OF I-29 THROUGH MIDDAY...AS ANOTHER LOBE OF
ENERGY DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN SNOW
COVERAGE AND PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AS SYSTEM PULLS EAST. FOR THIS REASON...18Z EXPIRATION
TIME OF THE WINTER HEADLINES SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL LINGER OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF
THE WIND ADVISORY WEST OF I-29 INTO THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. QUANDARY
COMES WITH WHAT TO DO FOR HEADLINES IN OUR EAST WHERE THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/BLIZZARD WARNING EXPIRE AT 18Z. CONTEMPLATED
ISSUING SHORT WIND ADVISORY TO COVER THE STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST...BUT HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER WINTER
HEADLINES WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 18Z. THUS OPTED TO FORGO
WIND ADVISORY IN THE EAST FOR NOW...AND INSTEAD WILL LET DAY SHIFT
MONITOR CONDITIONS AND MAKE DECISION LATER THIS MORNING WHETHER ANY
WINTER HEADLINES NEED TO BE EXTENDED...OR IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE
ENOUGH THAT THEY CAN BE REPLACED WITH A WIND ADVISORY.

BEYOND THE HEADLINES...TEMPERATURES WILL SEE LITTLE MOVEMENT TODAY
AS STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO REINFORCE COLD AIR MASS WHICH
SETTLED IN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S NEAR
AND EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY...WITH READINGS INTO THE LOWER 30S IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...BUT WILL
REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE IN THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO
WIND CHILLS IN THE EAST TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ARE SLATED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NOSING IN ALONG THE I 29 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THE DAY. LOWER LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT NOW LOOKS TO LARGELY REMAIN
WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE DAY TO
FIND ANY LARGER SCALE MEAGER SUPPORT FOR LIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE...HAVE SHAVED BACK THE LOW SNOW CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...RELEGATING TO THE EXTREME WEST LATE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD SEE
SOME WIND CHILLS DIP TOWARD ADVISORY LEVELS OF -20 TO -25 IF THEY
DO NOT DROP MORE THAN EXPECTED.

BAROCLINIC ZONE DOES APPEAR TO WANDER EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY WITH
WAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. A LITTLE INCREASE IN
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...BUT MODELS ALL OVER THE BOARD WITH LOCATION
OF SHALLOWLY SLOPED FRONTAL ZONE.  IF GREATER CONSISTENCY CAN BE
FOUND IN SOLUTION...WOULD BE MORE COMFORTABLE IN ADVERTISING
LEGITIMATE LIGHT SNOW CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS THINGS STAND...HAVE ONLY RUN WITH A FEW FLURRIES WITH
TEMPS IN FAVORABLE ICE PRODUCTION RANGE.  LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD
MAINLY KEEP ANY MORE NOTABLE WARMING BOTTLED UP WEST...PERHAPS
MODERATING A BIT IN THE EXTREME WESTERN AREAS.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND
WITH DEEP TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE WEST...REINFORCED BY WAVE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE LARGER SCALE RIDGE BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD
THIS WEEKEND. WITH SOME AGREEMENT IN WAVE / BUT AGAIN NOT IN THERMAL
BOUNDARY LOCATION / HAVE CARRIED A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA...BOTH AWAY FROM DRIER RIDGE EAST
AND THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WEST. BEHIND WAVE...APPEARANCES
ARE TO ALLOW A STRONGER PUSH OF SHALLOW COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.  TREND CONTINUES TO BE COLDER FOR
TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND HAVE ADJUSTED LOWER...THOUGH
MOST LIKELY NOT NEARLY ENOUGH FOR SATURDAY MORNING IF POTENTIAL
OVERLAP OF LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MATERIALIZES.

A BIT STRONGER WAVE MAY FLATTEN RIDGE TOWARD SUNDAY. DEVELOPMENT OF
WARM ADVECTION ZONE LOOKS TO SATURATE UP A BIT MORE EAST OF THE
AREA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP IN SOME LOW POPS. SOME FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT THERMAL RANGES BETWEEN SOLUTIONS...WITH ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO LET THINGS BE FOR NOW...SAFE ENOUGH TO ADVERTISE
AN AWAITED MODERATION TO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
BLOWING SNOW WITH WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT TIMES MAY CAUSE BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR SDZ040-055-056-
     062-067-071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ065-066-
     068>070.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR SDZ038-052-053-058-059-
     064.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ039-054-060-
     061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ098.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-
     090-097.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ001-012-020-
     031.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-021-
     022-032.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ014.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ013.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KABR 080957
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
357 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...ON THE BACK SIDE
OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. VSBY AND WEB CAMS HAVE LARGELY BEEN OK
LOOKING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. BUT AT TIMES...VSBY IS BEING
KNOCKED DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. WILL GO AHEAD AND
LET THE WINTER WX ADVISORY RUN THROUGH 12Z AND LIKELY LET IT EXPIRE
AT THAT TIME. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY TO REPLACE IT AT 12Z
AS WINDS ARE STILL PRETTY STRONG OVER THE GLACIAL LAKES REGION AND I-
29 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST SD.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BRING SOME COLDER
AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE...WARMER AIR WILL
HOLD STRONG OVER WESTERN SD. MODELS STILL TRYING TO SHOW SOME LIGHT
SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR
NOW HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER CENTRAL SD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. NOTHING IN THERE FOR WEDNESDAY JUST YET BUT THE EC AND GFS
ARE HINTING AS SOMETHING SO CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INSERTED IF 12Z
RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN US WITH A LARGE EASTERN US TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUT
OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A GOOD CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA TO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S FAR WEST. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW DECENT MEAN RH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THUS...THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST
THEN PUSHES EAST WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS A
RESULT...WARMER AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ALSO SHOW A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES COMING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH ONE
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE OTHER ONE FOR SUNDAY. EACH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH EITHER ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AN AREA OF SNOWFALL WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25 TO 40 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.
WHERE THERE IS ALSO SNOW FALLING...VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE
REDUCED DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     SDZ008-020>023.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KUNR 080921
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
221 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER LOW SPINS OVER WISCONSIN...WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE WEST COAST...AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN. STILL A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS HAVE
DECREASED BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY AT 20-30 KTS. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S.

REGION WILL STAY UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EARLY THIS WEEK.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS TODAY...STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE LOW-END
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S...UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TRANSITIONING EASTWARD...AND WARMER
AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL SD...AND AS SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER
ENERGY MOVE OVER THE REGION...MAY BE A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT.
MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HILLS.
OVERALL THESE AREAS MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD
TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VERY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED ON WED AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO OUR WRN ZONES AND W/NW BL FLOW (DOWNSLOPE) PREVAILS. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
NRN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND PUSH A BACKDOOR CDFNT INTO THE CWFA. SOME
LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT ANTICIPATED. THIS COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND DEPENDENT ON
HOW FAR WEST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT PCPN TO OUR FAR WRN ZONES...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW
WINDS UP TO 35KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...PRIMARILY ON THE SD
PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 080921
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
221 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER LOW SPINS OVER WISCONSIN...WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE WEST COAST...AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN. STILL A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS HAVE
DECREASED BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY AT 20-30 KTS. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S.

REGION WILL STAY UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EARLY THIS WEEK.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS TODAY...STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE LOW-END
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S...UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TRANSITIONING EASTWARD...AND WARMER
AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL SD...AND AS SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER
ENERGY MOVE OVER THE REGION...MAY BE A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT.
MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HILLS.
OVERALL THESE AREAS MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD
TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VERY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED ON WED AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO OUR WRN ZONES AND W/NW BL FLOW (DOWNSLOPE) PREVAILS. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
NRN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND PUSH A BACKDOOR CDFNT INTO THE CWFA. SOME
LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT ANTICIPATED. THIS COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND DEPENDENT ON
HOW FAR WEST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT PCPN TO OUR FAR WRN ZONES...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW
WINDS UP TO 35KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...PRIMARILY ON THE SD
PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 080921
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
221 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER LOW SPINS OVER WISCONSIN...WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE WEST COAST...AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN. STILL A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS HAVE
DECREASED BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY AT 20-30 KTS. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S.

REGION WILL STAY UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EARLY THIS WEEK.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS TODAY...STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE LOW-END
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S...UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TRANSITIONING EASTWARD...AND WARMER
AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL SD...AND AS SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER
ENERGY MOVE OVER THE REGION...MAY BE A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT.
MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HILLS.
OVERALL THESE AREAS MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD
TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VERY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED ON WED AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO OUR WRN ZONES AND W/NW BL FLOW (DOWNSLOPE) PREVAILS. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
NRN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND PUSH A BACKDOOR CDFNT INTO THE CWFA. SOME
LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT ANTICIPATED. THIS COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND DEPENDENT ON
HOW FAR WEST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT PCPN TO OUR FAR WRN ZONES...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW
WINDS UP TO 35KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...PRIMARILY ON THE SD
PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KABR 080611 AAD
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1211 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LET THE HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRE AT 06Z. WINDS WILL STAY RATHER
BREEZY/GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO REACH
WARNING LEVELS. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN CWA...WITH POCKETS OF BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY. WILL LET THE WINTER WX ADVISORY REMAIN IN
PLACE AND EVALUATE AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CHALLENGE REMAINS THE WINDS/SNOW IN THE EAST.  FOR TNT WILL BE
DOWNGRADING THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO AN ADVISORY.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT SNOWFALL PREDICTIONS WILL BE MET AND THUS SUSTAINED LONG TERM
SIGNIFICANT VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE WINDS GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH SOME HEATING WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN...BUT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOSTLY ENDED.  MONDAY SHOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY...BUT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MO RVR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THIS IS MORE PREVALENT IN THE GFS/GEM VS THE ECMWF.  SUSPECT SFC
HIGH TO THE EAST WILL SEVERELY LIMIT ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
PCPN BAND AND THUS IT SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY MUCH LOCKED UP OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.  TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WILL BE CHILLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE COLD SFC HIGH BACK
DOORS INTO THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.  HIGHS OVER THE EAST
SHOULD END UP BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY FOR HIGHS. STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO
MILDER AIR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE (WEST) AND TROUGH (EAST) PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THAT WILL PLACE THE
CWA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT
WEEKEND. THAT WILL LEAD TO THE REGION SEEING A COUPLE WEAK WAVES
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT DON/T EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL AID LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHEN ANY
FORCING MOVES THROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA (FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA (UNTIL IT DROPS INTO MINNESOTA THIS WEEKEND) WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE PRECIP CHANCES OVER FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE WEAK WAVES...SO WILL ONLY
INCLUDE OCCASIONAL SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR NOW.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WELL OFF TO THE EAST...THE COLDEST
AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. THAT LEAVES SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE GRADIENT OF THE WARM
AIR TO THE WEST AND COLD AIR TO THE EAST. THUS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RUN AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...LIKE WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST 1-2 WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AN AREA OF SNOWFALL WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25 TO 40 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.
WHERE THERE IS ALSO SNOW FALLING...VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE
REDUCED DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     SDZ008-020>023.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...FLEEGEL
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KUNR 080530
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1030 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 801 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

GRADIENT RELAXING SOME COMBINED WITH PARTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING RESULTING IN EXPECTED DECREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING.
WILL LET HEADLINES EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS THE CWA "SQUEEZED" BETWEEN A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA AND THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESPECTIVELY. THIS...ALONG WITH AN EXTREMELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A 997MB LOW IN MINNESOTA AND 1034 HIGH IN
WYOMING...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND POWERFUL WIND EVENT ONGOING IN THE CWA AT THIS
TIME. HAVE ALREADY HAD MULTIPLE HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST OCCURRING IN WASTA AND
SCENIC AT 78MPH. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...BUT STILL EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 40MPH.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BEGINS
TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA. WINDS WILL STILL BE
BREEZY MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD
DROP DOWN BY EVENING WHEN THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS IN. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO OUR
ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SHRA/-SHSN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER
SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW
BUT THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING DZ/-RA SO
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE SD PLAINS AROUND 40KTS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 080530
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1030 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 801 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

GRADIENT RELAXING SOME COMBINED WITH PARTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING RESULTING IN EXPECTED DECREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING.
WILL LET HEADLINES EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS THE CWA "SQUEEZED" BETWEEN A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA AND THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESPECTIVELY. THIS...ALONG WITH AN EXTREMELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A 997MB LOW IN MINNESOTA AND 1034 HIGH IN
WYOMING...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND POWERFUL WIND EVENT ONGOING IN THE CWA AT THIS
TIME. HAVE ALREADY HAD MULTIPLE HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST OCCURRING IN WASTA AND
SCENIC AT 78MPH. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...BUT STILL EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 40MPH.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BEGINS
TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA. WINDS WILL STILL BE
BREEZY MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD
DROP DOWN BY EVENING WHEN THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS IN. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO OUR
ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SHRA/-SHSN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER
SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW
BUT THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING DZ/-RA SO
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE SD PLAINS AROUND 40KTS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KABR 080528 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1128 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 917 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SNOW REMAINS CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN CWA...MAINLY ALONG THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION...THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AND WEATHER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED
SOME...BUT WILL LET HIGH WIND WARNING RIDE UNTIL ITS EXPIRATION
TIME MIDNIGHT. NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CHALLENGE REMAINS THE WINDS/SNOW IN THE EAST.  FOR TNT WILL BE
DOWNGRADING THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO AN ADVISORY.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT SNOWFALL PREDICTIONS WILL BE MET AND THUS SUSTAINED LONG TERM
SIGNIFICANT VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE WINDS GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH SOME HEATING WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN...BUT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOSTLY ENDED.  MONDAY SHOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY...BUT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MO RVR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THIS IS MORE PREVALENT IN THE GFS/GEM VS THE ECMWF.  SUSPECT SFC
HIGH TO THE EAST WILL SEVERELY LIMIT ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
PCPN BAND AND THUS IT SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY MUCH LOCKED UP OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.  TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WILL BE CHILLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE COLD SFC HIGH BACK
DOORS INTO THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.  HIGHS OVER THE EAST
SHOULD END UP BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY FOR HIGHS. STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO
MILDER AIR.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE (WEST) AND TROUGH (EAST) PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THAT WILL PLACE THE
CWA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT
WEEKEND. THAT WILL LEAD TO THE REGION SEEING A COUPLE WEAK WAVES
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT DON/T EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL AID LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHEN ANY
FORCING MOVES THROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA (FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA (UNTIL IT DROPS INTO MINNESOTA THIS WEEKEND) WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE PRECIP CHANCES OVER FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE WEAK WAVES...SO WILL ONLY
INCLUDE OCCASIONAL SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR NOW.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WELL OFF TO THE EAST...THE COLDEST
AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. THAT LEAVES SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE GRADIENT OF THE WARM
AIR TO THE WEST AND COLD AIR TO THE EAST. THUS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RUN AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...LIKE WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST 1-2 WEEKS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AN AREA OF SNOWFALL WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25 TO 40 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.
WHERE THERE IS ALSO SNOW FALLING...VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE
REDUCED DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
     SDZ003>007-009>011-015>019-033>037-045-048-051.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR SDZ008-020>023.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...FLEEGEL
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KABR 080528 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1128 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 917 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SNOW REMAINS CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN CWA...MAINLY ALONG THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION...THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AND WEATHER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED
SOME...BUT WILL LET HIGH WIND WARNING RIDE UNTIL ITS EXPIRATION
TIME MIDNIGHT. NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CHALLENGE REMAINS THE WINDS/SNOW IN THE EAST.  FOR TNT WILL BE
DOWNGRADING THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO AN ADVISORY.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT SNOWFALL PREDICTIONS WILL BE MET AND THUS SUSTAINED LONG TERM
SIGNIFICANT VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE WINDS GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH SOME HEATING WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN...BUT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOSTLY ENDED.  MONDAY SHOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY...BUT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MO RVR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THIS IS MORE PREVALENT IN THE GFS/GEM VS THE ECMWF.  SUSPECT SFC
HIGH TO THE EAST WILL SEVERELY LIMIT ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
PCPN BAND AND THUS IT SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY MUCH LOCKED UP OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.  TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WILL BE CHILLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE COLD SFC HIGH BACK
DOORS INTO THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.  HIGHS OVER THE EAST
SHOULD END UP BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY FOR HIGHS. STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO
MILDER AIR.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE (WEST) AND TROUGH (EAST) PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THAT WILL PLACE THE
CWA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT
WEEKEND. THAT WILL LEAD TO THE REGION SEEING A COUPLE WEAK WAVES
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT DON/T EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL AID LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHEN ANY
FORCING MOVES THROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA (FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA (UNTIL IT DROPS INTO MINNESOTA THIS WEEKEND) WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE PRECIP CHANCES OVER FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE WEAK WAVES...SO WILL ONLY
INCLUDE OCCASIONAL SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR NOW.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WELL OFF TO THE EAST...THE COLDEST
AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. THAT LEAVES SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE GRADIENT OF THE WARM
AIR TO THE WEST AND COLD AIR TO THE EAST. THUS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RUN AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...LIKE WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST 1-2 WEEKS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AN AREA OF SNOWFALL WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25 TO 40 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.
WHERE THERE IS ALSO SNOW FALLING...VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE
REDUCED DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
     SDZ003>007-009>011-015>019-033>037-045-048-051.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR SDZ008-020>023.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...FLEEGEL
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 080528 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1128 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 917 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SNOW REMAINS CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN CWA...MAINLY ALONG THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION...THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AND WEATHER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED
SOME...BUT WILL LET HIGH WIND WARNING RIDE UNTIL ITS EXPIRATION
TIME MIDNIGHT. NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CHALLENGE REMAINS THE WINDS/SNOW IN THE EAST.  FOR TNT WILL BE
DOWNGRADING THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO AN ADVISORY.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT SNOWFALL PREDICTIONS WILL BE MET AND THUS SUSTAINED LONG TERM
SIGNIFICANT VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE WINDS GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH SOME HEATING WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN...BUT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOSTLY ENDED.  MONDAY SHOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY...BUT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MO RVR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THIS IS MORE PREVALENT IN THE GFS/GEM VS THE ECMWF.  SUSPECT SFC
HIGH TO THE EAST WILL SEVERELY LIMIT ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
PCPN BAND AND THUS IT SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY MUCH LOCKED UP OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.  TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WILL BE CHILLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE COLD SFC HIGH BACK
DOORS INTO THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.  HIGHS OVER THE EAST
SHOULD END UP BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY FOR HIGHS. STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO
MILDER AIR.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE (WEST) AND TROUGH (EAST) PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THAT WILL PLACE THE
CWA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT
WEEKEND. THAT WILL LEAD TO THE REGION SEEING A COUPLE WEAK WAVES
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT DON/T EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL AID LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHEN ANY
FORCING MOVES THROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA (FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA (UNTIL IT DROPS INTO MINNESOTA THIS WEEKEND) WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE PRECIP CHANCES OVER FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE WEAK WAVES...SO WILL ONLY
INCLUDE OCCASIONAL SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR NOW.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WELL OFF TO THE EAST...THE COLDEST
AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. THAT LEAVES SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE GRADIENT OF THE WARM
AIR TO THE WEST AND COLD AIR TO THE EAST. THUS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RUN AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...LIKE WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST 1-2 WEEKS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AN AREA OF SNOWFALL WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25 TO 40 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.
WHERE THERE IS ALSO SNOW FALLING...VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE
REDUCED DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
     SDZ003>007-009>011-015>019-033>037-045-048-051.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR SDZ008-020>023.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...FLEEGEL
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 080439
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1039 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH TRAILING SHORTWAVE SLIDING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH THIS WAVE. WOULD EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO SLIDE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS OFF INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHERN IOWA BY
EVENING. STILL SEEING SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THESE SLIDE INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH BEING
MAINLY INSTABILITY DRIVEN MAY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS BY MID EVENING.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY HANDLED TODAYS SYSTEM VERY
POORLY...OVERESTIMATING QPF AMOUNTS AND MISPLACING PRECIPITATION TOO
FAR TO THE EAST. CURRENT EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND RAP HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS SO FOLLOWED THEM MORE CLOSELY FOR THE
FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. WHAT HAS VERIFIED BETTER TODAY HAS BEEN THE
WINDS...WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET. EVEN
SO...VISIBILITIES HAVE REMAINED JUST EITHER SIDE OF 2 MILES EVEN
WHEN SNOW IS OCCURRING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABOVE FREEZING AND
MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS SETTLED AND BECOME WET...PREVENTING ANY LOFTING
OF THE SNOW. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MODELS...IF THEY
CAN BE BELIEVED...STILL HINTING AT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER MINNESOTA ROTATES SOUTHWARD. THE QUESTION BECOMES WILL THIS
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO AREAS IN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING. BASED ON TODAYS TRENDS WOULD THINK THAT IT
IS ON THE LOW END OF PROBABILITY...BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ELECTED TO LEAVE THE HEADLINE IN PLACE FOR
NOW...THOUGH DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE WARNING. DEPENDENT ON THE
TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING...FUTURE SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
HEADLINE AS NEEDED. IN ANY EVENT...ANY SNOWFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN VERY
LIGHT...AT GENERALLY AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR LESS.

OTHERWISE...THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING DOWNWARD FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
ANY VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN OUR FAR EAST THROUGH MID
DAY...THEN COME TO AND END BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ON MONDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
EAST TO LOWER 30S FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AGAIN TODAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN RUNNING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
SINE WAVE ACROSS THE CONUS...BRINGING COLD WEATHER TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...AND WARM WEATHER TO THE WESTERN HALF.  WE WILL
BE STUCK IN-BETWEEN THESE TWO AIRMASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
WEAK IMPULSES OF WARMER AIR TRYING TO MOVE EAST LEADING TO LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES.  AGAIN...GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THESE
WAVE...MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME FIGURING OUT WHEN THE BEST FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND. CONSIDERABLE OSCILLATIONS IN
ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES...AND AT THIS POINT...CAN ONLY SEE
HAVING SLIGHT TO LOW END CHC POPS.  OF MORE CERTAINTY IS THAT NO
MAJOR SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA MAY BE IN THE TEENS...WHILE READINGS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA COULD CLIMB INTO THE 30S EACH DAY. TODAYS GUIDANCE HAS
NUDGED COLDER AIR A BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...SO AS A RESULT
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO TRENDED A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
BLOWING SNOW WITH WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT TIMES MAY CAUSE BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ055-056-062-
     067-071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ038-039-052>054-
     058>061-064>066-068>070.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ040.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ098.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ001-012-020-
     031.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-
     021-022-032.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ014.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ013.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KFSD 080439
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1039 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH TRAILING SHORTWAVE SLIDING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH THIS WAVE. WOULD EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO SLIDE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS OFF INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHERN IOWA BY
EVENING. STILL SEEING SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THESE SLIDE INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH BEING
MAINLY INSTABILITY DRIVEN MAY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS BY MID EVENING.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY HANDLED TODAYS SYSTEM VERY
POORLY...OVERESTIMATING QPF AMOUNTS AND MISPLACING PRECIPITATION TOO
FAR TO THE EAST. CURRENT EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND RAP HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS SO FOLLOWED THEM MORE CLOSELY FOR THE
FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. WHAT HAS VERIFIED BETTER TODAY HAS BEEN THE
WINDS...WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET. EVEN
SO...VISIBILITIES HAVE REMAINED JUST EITHER SIDE OF 2 MILES EVEN
WHEN SNOW IS OCCURRING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABOVE FREEZING AND
MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS SETTLED AND BECOME WET...PREVENTING ANY LOFTING
OF THE SNOW. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MODELS...IF THEY
CAN BE BELIEVED...STILL HINTING AT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER MINNESOTA ROTATES SOUTHWARD. THE QUESTION BECOMES WILL THIS
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO AREAS IN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING. BASED ON TODAYS TRENDS WOULD THINK THAT IT
IS ON THE LOW END OF PROBABILITY...BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ELECTED TO LEAVE THE HEADLINE IN PLACE FOR
NOW...THOUGH DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE WARNING. DEPENDENT ON THE
TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING...FUTURE SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
HEADLINE AS NEEDED. IN ANY EVENT...ANY SNOWFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN VERY
LIGHT...AT GENERALLY AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR LESS.

OTHERWISE...THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING DOWNWARD FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
ANY VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN OUR FAR EAST THROUGH MID
DAY...THEN COME TO AND END BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ON MONDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
EAST TO LOWER 30S FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AGAIN TODAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN RUNNING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
SINE WAVE ACROSS THE CONUS...BRINGING COLD WEATHER TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...AND WARM WEATHER TO THE WESTERN HALF.  WE WILL
BE STUCK IN-BETWEEN THESE TWO AIRMASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
WEAK IMPULSES OF WARMER AIR TRYING TO MOVE EAST LEADING TO LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES.  AGAIN...GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THESE
WAVE...MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME FIGURING OUT WHEN THE BEST FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND. CONSIDERABLE OSCILLATIONS IN
ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES...AND AT THIS POINT...CAN ONLY SEE
HAVING SLIGHT TO LOW END CHC POPS.  OF MORE CERTAINTY IS THAT NO
MAJOR SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA MAY BE IN THE TEENS...WHILE READINGS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA COULD CLIMB INTO THE 30S EACH DAY. TODAYS GUIDANCE HAS
NUDGED COLDER AIR A BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...SO AS A RESULT
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO TRENDED A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
BLOWING SNOW WITH WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT TIMES MAY CAUSE BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ055-056-062-
     067-071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ038-039-052>054-
     058>061-064>066-068>070.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ040.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ098.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ001-012-020-
     031.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-
     021-022-032.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ014.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ013.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 080439
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1039 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH TRAILING SHORTWAVE SLIDING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH THIS WAVE. WOULD EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO SLIDE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS OFF INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHERN IOWA BY
EVENING. STILL SEEING SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THESE SLIDE INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH BEING
MAINLY INSTABILITY DRIVEN MAY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS BY MID EVENING.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY HANDLED TODAYS SYSTEM VERY
POORLY...OVERESTIMATING QPF AMOUNTS AND MISPLACING PRECIPITATION TOO
FAR TO THE EAST. CURRENT EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND RAP HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS SO FOLLOWED THEM MORE CLOSELY FOR THE
FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. WHAT HAS VERIFIED BETTER TODAY HAS BEEN THE
WINDS...WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET. EVEN
SO...VISIBILITIES HAVE REMAINED JUST EITHER SIDE OF 2 MILES EVEN
WHEN SNOW IS OCCURRING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABOVE FREEZING AND
MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS SETTLED AND BECOME WET...PREVENTING ANY LOFTING
OF THE SNOW. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MODELS...IF THEY
CAN BE BELIEVED...STILL HINTING AT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER MINNESOTA ROTATES SOUTHWARD. THE QUESTION BECOMES WILL THIS
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO AREAS IN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING. BASED ON TODAYS TRENDS WOULD THINK THAT IT
IS ON THE LOW END OF PROBABILITY...BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ELECTED TO LEAVE THE HEADLINE IN PLACE FOR
NOW...THOUGH DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE WARNING. DEPENDENT ON THE
TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING...FUTURE SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
HEADLINE AS NEEDED. IN ANY EVENT...ANY SNOWFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN VERY
LIGHT...AT GENERALLY AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR LESS.

OTHERWISE...THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING DOWNWARD FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
ANY VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN OUR FAR EAST THROUGH MID
DAY...THEN COME TO AND END BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ON MONDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
EAST TO LOWER 30S FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AGAIN TODAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN RUNNING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
SINE WAVE ACROSS THE CONUS...BRINGING COLD WEATHER TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...AND WARM WEATHER TO THE WESTERN HALF.  WE WILL
BE STUCK IN-BETWEEN THESE TWO AIRMASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
WEAK IMPULSES OF WARMER AIR TRYING TO MOVE EAST LEADING TO LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES.  AGAIN...GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THESE
WAVE...MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME FIGURING OUT WHEN THE BEST FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND. CONSIDERABLE OSCILLATIONS IN
ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES...AND AT THIS POINT...CAN ONLY SEE
HAVING SLIGHT TO LOW END CHC POPS.  OF MORE CERTAINTY IS THAT NO
MAJOR SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA MAY BE IN THE TEENS...WHILE READINGS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA COULD CLIMB INTO THE 30S EACH DAY. TODAYS GUIDANCE HAS
NUDGED COLDER AIR A BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...SO AS A RESULT
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO TRENDED A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
BLOWING SNOW WITH WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT TIMES MAY CAUSE BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ055-056-062-
     067-071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ038-039-052>054-
     058>061-064>066-068>070.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ040.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ098.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ001-012-020-
     031.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-
     021-022-032.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ014.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ013.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KABR 080319 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
919 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SNOW REMAINS CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN CWA...MAINLY ALONG THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION...THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AND WEATHER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED
SOME...BUT WILL LET HIGH WIND WARNING RIDE UNTIL ITS EXPIRATION
TIME MIDNIGHT. NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CHALLENGE REMAINS THE WINDS/SNOW IN THE EAST.  FOR TNT WILL BE
DOWNGRADING THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO AN ADVISORY.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT SNOWFALL PREDICTIONS WILL BE MET AND THUS SUSTAINED LONG TERM
SIGNIFICANT VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE WINDS GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH SOME HEATING WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN...BUT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOSTLY ENDED.  MONDAY SHOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY...BUT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MO RVR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THIS IS MORE PREVALENT IN THE GFS/GEM VS THE ECMWF.  SUSPECT SFC
HIGH TO THE EAST WILL SEVERELY LIMIT ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
PCPN BAND AND THUS IT SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY MUCH LOCKED UP OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.  TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WILL BE CHILLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE COLD SFC HIGH BACK
DOORS INTO THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.  HIGHS OVER THE EAST
SHOULD END UP BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY FOR HIGHS. STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO
MILDER AIR.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE (WEST) AND TROUGH (EAST) PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THAT WILL PLACE THE
CWA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT
WEEKEND. THAT WILL LEAD TO THE REGION SEEING A COUPLE WEAK WAVES
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT DON/T EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL AID LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHEN ANY
FORCING MOVES THROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA (FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA (UNTIL IT DROPS INTO MINNESOTA THIS WEEKEND) WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE PRECIP CHANCES OVER FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE WEAK WAVES...SO WILL ONLY
INCLUDE OCCASIONAL SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR NOW.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WELL OFF TO THE EAST...THE COLDEST
AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. THAT LEAVES SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE GRADIENT OF THE WARM
AIR TO THE WEST AND COLD AIR TO THE EAST. THUS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RUN AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...LIKE WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST 1-2 WEEKS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AN AREA OF SNOWFALL WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER AREA WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF
30 TO 45 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACR5OSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. WHERE THERE IS ALSO SNOW FALLING...VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY
BE SEVERELY REDUCED DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
     SDZ003>007-009>011-015>019-033>037-045-048-051.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR SDZ008-020>023.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...FLEEGEL
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KUNR 080303
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
803 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 801 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

GRADIENT RELAXING SOME COMBINED WITH PARTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING RESULTING IN EXPECTED DECREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING.
WILL LET HEADLINES EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS THE CWA "SQUEEZED" BETWEEN A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA AND THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESPECTIVELY. THIS...ALONG WITH AN EXTREMELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A 997MB LOW IN MINNESOTA AND 1034 HIGH IN
WYOMING...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND POWERFUL WIND EVENT ONGOING IN THE CWA AT THIS
TIME. HAVE ALREADY HAD MULTIPLE HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST OCCURRING IN WASTA AND
SCENIC AT 78MPH. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...BUT STILL EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 40MPH.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BEGINS
TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA. WINDS WILL STILL BE
BREEZY MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD
DROP DOWN BY EVENING WHEN THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS IN. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO OUR
ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SHRA/-SHSN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER
SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW
BUT THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING DZ/-RA SO
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 413 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 55KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY/WINDY THROUGH
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KFSD 080015
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
615 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH TRAILING SHORTWAVE SLIDING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH THIS WAVE. WOULD EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO SLIDE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS OFF INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHERN IOWA BY
EVENING. STILL SEEING SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THESE SLIDE INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH BEING
MAINLY INSTABILITY DRIVEN MAY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS BY MID EVENING.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY HANDLED TODAYS SYSTEM VERY
POORLY...OVERESTIMATING QPF AMOUNTS AND MISPLACING PRECIPITATION TOO
FAR TO THE EAST. CURRENT EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND RAP HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS SO FOLLOWED THEM MORE CLOSELY FOR THE
FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. WHAT HAS VERIFIED BETTER TODAY HAS BEEN THE
WINDS...WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET. EVEN
SO...VISIBILITIES HAVE REMAINED JUST EITHER SIDE OF 2 MILES EVEN
WHEN SNOW IS OCCURRING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABOVE FREEZING AND
MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS SETTLED AND BECOME WET...PREVENTING ANY LOFTING
OF THE SNOW. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MODELS...IF THEY
CAN BE BELIEVED...STILL HINTING AT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER MINNESOTA ROTATES SOUTHWARD. THE QUESTION BECOMES WILL THIS
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO AREAS IN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING. BASED ON TODAYS TRENDS WOULD THINK THAT IT
IS ON THE LOW END OF PROBABILITY...BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ELECTED TO LEAVE THE HEADLINE IN PLACE FOR
NOW...THOUGH DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE WARNING. DEPENDENT ON THE
TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING...FUTURE SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
HEADLINE AS NEEDED. IN ANY EVENT...ANY SNOWFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN VERY
LIGHT...AT GENERALLY AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR LESS.

OTHERWISE...THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING DOWNWARD FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
ANY VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN OUR FAR EAST THROUGH MID
DAY...THEN COME TO AND END BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ON MONDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
EAST TO LOWER 30S FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AGAIN TODAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN RUNNING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
SINE WAVE ACROSS THE CONUS...BRINGING COLD WEATHER TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...AND WARM WEATHER TO THE WESTERN HALF.  WE WILL
BE STUCK IN-BETWEEN THESE TWO AIRMASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
WEAK IMPULSES OF WARMER AIR TRYING TO MOVE EAST LEADING TO LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES.  AGAIN...GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THESE
WAVE...MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME FIGURING OUT WHEN THE BEST FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND. CONSIDERABLE OSCILLATIONS IN
ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES...AND AT THIS POINT...CAN ONLY SEE
HAVING SLIGHT TO LOW END CHC POPS.  OF MORE CERTAINTY IS THAT NO
MAJOR SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA MAY BE IN THE TEENS...WHILE READINGS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA COULD CLIMB INTO THE 30S EACH DAY. TODAYS GUIDANCE HAS
NUDGED COLDER AIR A BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...SO AS A RESULT
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO TRENDED A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. AFTER THIS CEILINGS WILL WAVER FROM VFR TO
MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ038-039-052>056-
     058>062-064>071.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ040.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-057-063.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ098.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-097.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ081-089-090.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ001-012-020-031.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-
     021-022-032.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KFSD 080015
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
615 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH TRAILING SHORTWAVE SLIDING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH THIS WAVE. WOULD EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO SLIDE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS OFF INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHERN IOWA BY
EVENING. STILL SEEING SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THESE SLIDE INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH BEING
MAINLY INSTABILITY DRIVEN MAY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS BY MID EVENING.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY HANDLED TODAYS SYSTEM VERY
POORLY...OVERESTIMATING QPF AMOUNTS AND MISPLACING PRECIPITATION TOO
FAR TO THE EAST. CURRENT EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND RAP HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS SO FOLLOWED THEM MORE CLOSELY FOR THE
FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. WHAT HAS VERIFIED BETTER TODAY HAS BEEN THE
WINDS...WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET. EVEN
SO...VISIBILITIES HAVE REMAINED JUST EITHER SIDE OF 2 MILES EVEN
WHEN SNOW IS OCCURRING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABOVE FREEZING AND
MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS SETTLED AND BECOME WET...PREVENTING ANY LOFTING
OF THE SNOW. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MODELS...IF THEY
CAN BE BELIEVED...STILL HINTING AT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER MINNESOTA ROTATES SOUTHWARD. THE QUESTION BECOMES WILL THIS
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO AREAS IN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING. BASED ON TODAYS TRENDS WOULD THINK THAT IT
IS ON THE LOW END OF PROBABILITY...BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ELECTED TO LEAVE THE HEADLINE IN PLACE FOR
NOW...THOUGH DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE WARNING. DEPENDENT ON THE
TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING...FUTURE SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
HEADLINE AS NEEDED. IN ANY EVENT...ANY SNOWFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN VERY
LIGHT...AT GENERALLY AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR LESS.

OTHERWISE...THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING DOWNWARD FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
ANY VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN OUR FAR EAST THROUGH MID
DAY...THEN COME TO AND END BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ON MONDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
EAST TO LOWER 30S FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AGAIN TODAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN RUNNING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
SINE WAVE ACROSS THE CONUS...BRINGING COLD WEATHER TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...AND WARM WEATHER TO THE WESTERN HALF.  WE WILL
BE STUCK IN-BETWEEN THESE TWO AIRMASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
WEAK IMPULSES OF WARMER AIR TRYING TO MOVE EAST LEADING TO LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES.  AGAIN...GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THESE
WAVE...MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME FIGURING OUT WHEN THE BEST FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND. CONSIDERABLE OSCILLATIONS IN
ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES...AND AT THIS POINT...CAN ONLY SEE
HAVING SLIGHT TO LOW END CHC POPS.  OF MORE CERTAINTY IS THAT NO
MAJOR SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA MAY BE IN THE TEENS...WHILE READINGS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA COULD CLIMB INTO THE 30S EACH DAY. TODAYS GUIDANCE HAS
NUDGED COLDER AIR A BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...SO AS A RESULT
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO TRENDED A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. AFTER THIS CEILINGS WILL WAVER FROM VFR TO
MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ038-039-052>056-
     058>062-064>071.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ040.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-057-063.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ098.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-097.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ081-089-090.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ001-012-020-031.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-
     021-022-032.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KABR 072329 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
529 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CHALLENGE REMAINS THE WINDS/SNOW IN THE EAST.  FOR TNT WILL BE
DOWNGRADING THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO AN ADVISORY.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT SNOWFALL PREDICTIONS WILL BE MET AND THUS SUSTAINED LONG TERM
SIGNIFICANT VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE WINDS GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH SOME HEATING WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN...BUT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOSTLY ENDED.  MONDAY SHOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY...BUT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MO RVR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THIS IS MORE PREVALENT IN THE GFS/GEM VS THE ECMWF.  SUSPECT SFC
HIGH TO THE EAST WILL SEVERELY LIMIT ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
PCPN BAND AND THUS IT SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY MUCH LOCKED UP OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.  TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WILL BE CHILLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE COLD SFC HIGH BACK
DOORS INTO THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.  HIGHS OVER THE EAST
SHOULD END UP BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY FOR HIGHS. STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO
MILDER AIR.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE (WEST) AND TROUGH (EAST) PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THAT WILL PLACE THE
CWA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT
WEEKEND. THAT WILL LEAD TO THE REGION SEEING A COUPLE WEAK WAVES
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT DON/T EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL AID LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHEN ANY
FORCING MOVES THROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA (FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA (UNTIL IT DROPS INTO MINNESOTA THIS WEEKEND) WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE PRECIP CHANCES OVER FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE WEAK WAVES...SO WILL ONLY
INCLUDE OCCASIONAL SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR NOW.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WELL OFF TO THE EAST...THE COLDEST
AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. THAT LEAVES SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE GRADIENT OF THE WARM
AIR TO THE WEST AND COLD AIR TO THE EAST. THUS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RUN AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...LIKE WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST 1-2 WEEKS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AN AREA OF SNOWFALL WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER AREA WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF
30 TO 45 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACR5OSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. WHERE THERE IS ALSO SNOW FALLING...VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY
BE SEVERELY REDUCED DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
     SDZ003>007-009>011-015>019-033>037-045-048-051.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR SDZ008-020>023.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...FLEEGEL
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 072329 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
529 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CHALLENGE REMAINS THE WINDS/SNOW IN THE EAST.  FOR TNT WILL BE
DOWNGRADING THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO AN ADVISORY.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT SNOWFALL PREDICTIONS WILL BE MET AND THUS SUSTAINED LONG TERM
SIGNIFICANT VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE WINDS GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH SOME HEATING WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN...BUT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOSTLY ENDED.  MONDAY SHOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY...BUT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MO RVR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THIS IS MORE PREVALENT IN THE GFS/GEM VS THE ECMWF.  SUSPECT SFC
HIGH TO THE EAST WILL SEVERELY LIMIT ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
PCPN BAND AND THUS IT SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY MUCH LOCKED UP OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.  TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WILL BE CHILLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE COLD SFC HIGH BACK
DOORS INTO THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.  HIGHS OVER THE EAST
SHOULD END UP BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY FOR HIGHS. STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO
MILDER AIR.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE (WEST) AND TROUGH (EAST) PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THAT WILL PLACE THE
CWA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT
WEEKEND. THAT WILL LEAD TO THE REGION SEEING A COUPLE WEAK WAVES
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT DON/T EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL AID LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHEN ANY
FORCING MOVES THROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA (FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA (UNTIL IT DROPS INTO MINNESOTA THIS WEEKEND) WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE PRECIP CHANCES OVER FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE WEAK WAVES...SO WILL ONLY
INCLUDE OCCASIONAL SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR NOW.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WELL OFF TO THE EAST...THE COLDEST
AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. THAT LEAVES SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE GRADIENT OF THE WARM
AIR TO THE WEST AND COLD AIR TO THE EAST. THUS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RUN AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...LIKE WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST 1-2 WEEKS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AN AREA OF SNOWFALL WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER AREA WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF
30 TO 45 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACR5OSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. WHERE THERE IS ALSO SNOW FALLING...VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY
BE SEVERELY REDUCED DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
     SDZ003>007-009>011-015>019-033>037-045-048-051.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR SDZ008-020>023.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...FLEEGEL
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 072329 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
529 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CHALLENGE REMAINS THE WINDS/SNOW IN THE EAST.  FOR TNT WILL BE
DOWNGRADING THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO AN ADVISORY.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT SNOWFALL PREDICTIONS WILL BE MET AND THUS SUSTAINED LONG TERM
SIGNIFICANT VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE WINDS GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH SOME HEATING WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN...BUT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOSTLY ENDED.  MONDAY SHOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY...BUT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MO RVR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THIS IS MORE PREVALENT IN THE GFS/GEM VS THE ECMWF.  SUSPECT SFC
HIGH TO THE EAST WILL SEVERELY LIMIT ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
PCPN BAND AND THUS IT SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY MUCH LOCKED UP OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.  TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WILL BE CHILLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE COLD SFC HIGH BACK
DOORS INTO THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.  HIGHS OVER THE EAST
SHOULD END UP BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY FOR HIGHS. STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO
MILDER AIR.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE (WEST) AND TROUGH (EAST) PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THAT WILL PLACE THE
CWA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT
WEEKEND. THAT WILL LEAD TO THE REGION SEEING A COUPLE WEAK WAVES
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT DON/T EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL AID LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHEN ANY
FORCING MOVES THROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA (FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA (UNTIL IT DROPS INTO MINNESOTA THIS WEEKEND) WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE PRECIP CHANCES OVER FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE WEAK WAVES...SO WILL ONLY
INCLUDE OCCASIONAL SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR NOW.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WELL OFF TO THE EAST...THE COLDEST
AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. THAT LEAVES SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE GRADIENT OF THE WARM
AIR TO THE WEST AND COLD AIR TO THE EAST. THUS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RUN AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...LIKE WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST 1-2 WEEKS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AN AREA OF SNOWFALL WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER AREA WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF
30 TO 45 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACR5OSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. WHERE THERE IS ALSO SNOW FALLING...VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY
BE SEVERELY REDUCED DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
     SDZ003>007-009>011-015>019-033>037-045-048-051.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR SDZ008-020>023.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...FLEEGEL
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KUNR 072314
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
414 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS THE CWA "SQUEEZED" BETWEEN A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA AND THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESPECTIVELY. THIS...ALONG WITH AN EXTREMELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A 997MB LOW IN MINNESOTA AND 1034 HIGH IN
WYOMING...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND POWERFUL WIND EVENT ONGOING IN THE CWA AT THIS
TIME. HAVE ALREADY HAD MULTIPLE HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST OCCURRING IN WASTA AND
SCENIC AT 78MPH. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...BUT STILL EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 40MPH.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BEGINS
TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA. WINDS WILL STILL BE
BREEZY MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD
DROP DOWN BY EVENING WHEN THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS IN. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO OUR
ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SHRA/-SHSN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER
SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW
BUT THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING DZ/-RA SO
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 413 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 55KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY/WINDY THROUGH
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...HELGESON




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