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000
FXUS63 KUNR 032126
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
326 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT
SALT LAKE...PUSHING CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND 10 KTS. TEMPS ARE CLIMBING INTO THE 80S.

THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SD AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROUGH. A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT WITH ML CAPE NEAR
2000 J/KG...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.

A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CHANCES
INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AS TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE LOW CROSS THE
REGION. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...AND WITH ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 3500 J/KG...COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...SHEAR IS VERY WEAK
AND CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT HEATING AND LIMIT SEVERE DEVELOPMENT.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING...AS STORM MOTION IS ONLY AROUND 10 KTS AND PWATS ARE
180 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW ALONG AN AREA OF ENHANCED
FRONTOGENESIS...ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN WY...NORTHWESTERN SD...AND
THE BLACK HILLS...INCLUDING STURGIS. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORM MOTION INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRECIP WILL
EXIT MUCH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE 80S...70S IN THE BLACK HILLS...AND COULD BE COOLER WITH
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL DOMINATE IN THE PERIOD AS
LARGE SCALE RIDGING REMAINS SUBDUED. THIS WILL SUPPORT PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION. LL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT GIVEN
WEAK SOUTHWARD PROTRUSION OF DRY AIR WITH STAUNCH RETURN FLOW PER
EACH SYSTEM. CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH THUR AND SAT BEING BEING PROGGED FOR THE HIGHEST POPS
ATTM. FASTER FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT WITH
EACH SYSTEM...HOWEVER TIMING WILL BE KEY IN ANY COVERAGE. SEASONAL
TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS...ESP INVOF THE BLACK HILLS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-012-013-024>026-028>031-072>074.

WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 032126
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
326 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT
SALT LAKE...PUSHING CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND 10 KTS. TEMPS ARE CLIMBING INTO THE 80S.

THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SD AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROUGH. A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT WITH ML CAPE NEAR
2000 J/KG...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.

A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CHANCES
INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AS TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE LOW CROSS THE
REGION. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...AND WITH ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 3500 J/KG...COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...SHEAR IS VERY WEAK
AND CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT HEATING AND LIMIT SEVERE DEVELOPMENT.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING...AS STORM MOTION IS ONLY AROUND 10 KTS AND PWATS ARE
180 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW ALONG AN AREA OF ENHANCED
FRONTOGENESIS...ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN WY...NORTHWESTERN SD...AND
THE BLACK HILLS...INCLUDING STURGIS. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORM MOTION INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRECIP WILL
EXIT MUCH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE 80S...70S IN THE BLACK HILLS...AND COULD BE COOLER WITH
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL DOMINATE IN THE PERIOD AS
LARGE SCALE RIDGING REMAINS SUBDUED. THIS WILL SUPPORT PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION. LL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT GIVEN
WEAK SOUTHWARD PROTRUSION OF DRY AIR WITH STAUNCH RETURN FLOW PER
EACH SYSTEM. CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH THUR AND SAT BEING BEING PROGGED FOR THE HIGHEST POPS
ATTM. FASTER FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT WITH
EACH SYSTEM...HOWEVER TIMING WILL BE KEY IN ANY COVERAGE. SEASONAL
TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS...ESP INVOF THE BLACK HILLS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-012-013-024>026-028>031-072>074.

WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 032126
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
326 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT
SALT LAKE...PUSHING CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND 10 KTS. TEMPS ARE CLIMBING INTO THE 80S.

THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SD AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROUGH. A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT WITH ML CAPE NEAR
2000 J/KG...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.

A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CHANCES
INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AS TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE LOW CROSS THE
REGION. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...AND WITH ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 3500 J/KG...COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...SHEAR IS VERY WEAK
AND CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT HEATING AND LIMIT SEVERE DEVELOPMENT.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING...AS STORM MOTION IS ONLY AROUND 10 KTS AND PWATS ARE
180 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW ALONG AN AREA OF ENHANCED
FRONTOGENESIS...ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN WY...NORTHWESTERN SD...AND
THE BLACK HILLS...INCLUDING STURGIS. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORM MOTION INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRECIP WILL
EXIT MUCH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE 80S...70S IN THE BLACK HILLS...AND COULD BE COOLER WITH
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL DOMINATE IN THE PERIOD AS
LARGE SCALE RIDGING REMAINS SUBDUED. THIS WILL SUPPORT PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION. LL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT GIVEN
WEAK SOUTHWARD PROTRUSION OF DRY AIR WITH STAUNCH RETURN FLOW PER
EACH SYSTEM. CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH THUR AND SAT BEING BEING PROGGED FOR THE HIGHEST POPS
ATTM. FASTER FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT WITH
EACH SYSTEM...HOWEVER TIMING WILL BE KEY IN ANY COVERAGE. SEASONAL
TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS...ESP INVOF THE BLACK HILLS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-012-013-024>026-028>031-072>074.

WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 032126
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
326 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT
SALT LAKE...PUSHING CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND 10 KTS. TEMPS ARE CLIMBING INTO THE 80S.

THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SD AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROUGH. A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT WITH ML CAPE NEAR
2000 J/KG...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.

A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CHANCES
INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AS TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE LOW CROSS THE
REGION. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...AND WITH ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 3500 J/KG...COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...SHEAR IS VERY WEAK
AND CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT HEATING AND LIMIT SEVERE DEVELOPMENT.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING...AS STORM MOTION IS ONLY AROUND 10 KTS AND PWATS ARE
180 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW ALONG AN AREA OF ENHANCED
FRONTOGENESIS...ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN WY...NORTHWESTERN SD...AND
THE BLACK HILLS...INCLUDING STURGIS. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORM MOTION INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRECIP WILL
EXIT MUCH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE 80S...70S IN THE BLACK HILLS...AND COULD BE COOLER WITH
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL DOMINATE IN THE PERIOD AS
LARGE SCALE RIDGING REMAINS SUBDUED. THIS WILL SUPPORT PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION. LL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT GIVEN
WEAK SOUTHWARD PROTRUSION OF DRY AIR WITH STAUNCH RETURN FLOW PER
EACH SYSTEM. CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH THUR AND SAT BEING BEING PROGGED FOR THE HIGHEST POPS
ATTM. FASTER FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT WITH
EACH SYSTEM...HOWEVER TIMING WILL BE KEY IN ANY COVERAGE. SEASONAL
TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS...ESP INVOF THE BLACK HILLS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-012-013-024>026-028>031-072>074.

WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KABR 032025
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL LARGELY HAVE AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...WINDS LIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER. ON TUESDAY THE
SFC HIGH BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD...WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING UP MAINLY
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGHEST MLCAPE VALUES DO CLIP THE
SOUTHWEST CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH OVERALL BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER
THE CWA WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN CHUNK
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THERE IS A REAL
LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SEE SOME GENERIC
THUNDERSHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF RAINFALL. HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA WHERE THERE IS
BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO QPF PLACEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK SFC LOWS AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY THEN A WEAKER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK MORE AUTUMN LIKE WITH WEAKER
INSTABILITY AND PROBABLY JUST GENERAL THUNDER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION STARTING SAT NIGHT AND EXITING SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS GREATER INSTABILITY AND FORCING AVAILABLE WITH THE WEEKEND EVENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP MODERATING HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 032025
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL LARGELY HAVE AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...WINDS LIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER. ON TUESDAY THE
SFC HIGH BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD...WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING UP MAINLY
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGHEST MLCAPE VALUES DO CLIP THE
SOUTHWEST CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH OVERALL BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER
THE CWA WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN CHUNK
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THERE IS A REAL
LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SEE SOME GENERIC
THUNDERSHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF RAINFALL. HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA WHERE THERE IS
BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO QPF PLACEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK SFC LOWS AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY THEN A WEAKER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK MORE AUTUMN LIKE WITH WEAKER
INSTABILITY AND PROBABLY JUST GENERAL THUNDER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION STARTING SAT NIGHT AND EXITING SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS GREATER INSTABILITY AND FORCING AVAILABLE WITH THE WEEKEND EVENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP MODERATING HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 032025
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL LARGELY HAVE AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...WINDS LIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER. ON TUESDAY THE
SFC HIGH BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD...WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING UP MAINLY
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGHEST MLCAPE VALUES DO CLIP THE
SOUTHWEST CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH OVERALL BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER
THE CWA WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN CHUNK
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THERE IS A REAL
LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SEE SOME GENERIC
THUNDERSHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF RAINFALL. HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA WHERE THERE IS
BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO QPF PLACEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK SFC LOWS AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY THEN A WEAKER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK MORE AUTUMN LIKE WITH WEAKER
INSTABILITY AND PROBABLY JUST GENERAL THUNDER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION STARTING SAT NIGHT AND EXITING SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS GREATER INSTABILITY AND FORCING AVAILABLE WITH THE WEEKEND EVENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP MODERATING HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 032025
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL LARGELY HAVE AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...WINDS LIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER. ON TUESDAY THE
SFC HIGH BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD...WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING UP MAINLY
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGHEST MLCAPE VALUES DO CLIP THE
SOUTHWEST CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH OVERALL BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER
THE CWA WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN CHUNK
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THERE IS A REAL
LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SEE SOME GENERIC
THUNDERSHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF RAINFALL. HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA WHERE THERE IS
BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO QPF PLACEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK SFC LOWS AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY THEN A WEAKER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK MORE AUTUMN LIKE WITH WEAKER
INSTABILITY AND PROBABLY JUST GENERAL THUNDER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION STARTING SAT NIGHT AND EXITING SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS GREATER INSTABILITY AND FORCING AVAILABLE WITH THE WEEKEND EVENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP MODERATING HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KFSD 031950
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A BEAUTIFUL DAY WILL LEAD INTO A BEAUTIFUL EVENING AS FAIRLY DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY BUT JUST A TOUCH COOLER WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...SO MAINLY 80 TO 85 DEGREES.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE MOST PARTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WAVE SLIDES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE ONTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STILL LOOK LIKE DECENT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
UPPER AND SURFACE SYSTEM LOOKING A BIT LESS STRONG THAN APPEARING
YESTERDAY...WITH A LITTLE LESS DAYTIME COOLING...DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK OK. WITH THE THURSDAY WAVE LOOKING
WEAKER AND THE FRIDAY IMPULSE LOOKING FAIRLY STRONG BUT WELL
NORTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL...BUT WILL FOR NOW KEEP
THE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OFFERED BY THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE. FRIDAY IS LIKELY TO SEE LOW COVERAGE AND WILL GO
ACCORDINGLY. PROJECTED TEMPERATURES LOOK A TAD ABOVE NORMAL ON LOWS
AND A BUT BELOW NORMAL ON HIGHS...OR NOT AS COOL AS PROJECTED A DAY
OR TWO AGO.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY LOOK LIKE
MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY WITH POPS PEAKING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS DROPPING OFF AGAIN MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE
INCONSISTENT NOT ONLY ON TIMING OF EACH IMPULSE BUT THE STRENGTH
THEREOF...TODAY HINTING AT LESS FLATTENING OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE. THIS SEEMS TO SET UP THE EC SOLUTION OF BUILDING THE RIDGE
WELL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FEW DAYS AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...THAT IS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE SUSPICIONS OF THAT
IDEA IF ONLY BECAUSE OF THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS SUMMERS SOUTHWESTERN
USA TO SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE...AND THE REPEATING SHORT WAVES
BLOCKING THIS RIDGE FROM BUILDING TOO FAR NORTH. BY NEXT
MONDAY...DAY 7...WE SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL...AND WE
WILL SEE IF THAT PROGRESSES TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

OBVIOUSLY THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PASSING WAVES
LEADS TO THE SAME DOUBT IN DAY TO DAY PRECIPITATION THREATS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER TOWARDS KSUX LATE TONIGHT BUT STILL TOO
LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 031950
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A BEAUTIFUL DAY WILL LEAD INTO A BEAUTIFUL EVENING AS FAIRLY DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY BUT JUST A TOUCH COOLER WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...SO MAINLY 80 TO 85 DEGREES.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE MOST PARTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WAVE SLIDES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE ONTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STILL LOOK LIKE DECENT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
UPPER AND SURFACE SYSTEM LOOKING A BIT LESS STRONG THAN APPEARING
YESTERDAY...WITH A LITTLE LESS DAYTIME COOLING...DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK OK. WITH THE THURSDAY WAVE LOOKING
WEAKER AND THE FRIDAY IMPULSE LOOKING FAIRLY STRONG BUT WELL
NORTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL...BUT WILL FOR NOW KEEP
THE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OFFERED BY THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE. FRIDAY IS LIKELY TO SEE LOW COVERAGE AND WILL GO
ACCORDINGLY. PROJECTED TEMPERATURES LOOK A TAD ABOVE NORMAL ON LOWS
AND A BUT BELOW NORMAL ON HIGHS...OR NOT AS COOL AS PROJECTED A DAY
OR TWO AGO.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY LOOK LIKE
MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY WITH POPS PEAKING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS DROPPING OFF AGAIN MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE
INCONSISTENT NOT ONLY ON TIMING OF EACH IMPULSE BUT THE STRENGTH
THEREOF...TODAY HINTING AT LESS FLATTENING OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE. THIS SEEMS TO SET UP THE EC SOLUTION OF BUILDING THE RIDGE
WELL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FEW DAYS AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...THAT IS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE SUSPICIONS OF THAT
IDEA IF ONLY BECAUSE OF THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS SUMMERS SOUTHWESTERN
USA TO SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE...AND THE REPEATING SHORT WAVES
BLOCKING THIS RIDGE FROM BUILDING TOO FAR NORTH. BY NEXT
MONDAY...DAY 7...WE SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL...AND WE
WILL SEE IF THAT PROGRESSES TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

OBVIOUSLY THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PASSING WAVES
LEADS TO THE SAME DOUBT IN DAY TO DAY PRECIPITATION THREATS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER TOWARDS KSUX LATE TONIGHT BUT STILL TOO
LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 031950
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A BEAUTIFUL DAY WILL LEAD INTO A BEAUTIFUL EVENING AS FAIRLY DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY BUT JUST A TOUCH COOLER WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...SO MAINLY 80 TO 85 DEGREES.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE MOST PARTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WAVE SLIDES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE ONTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STILL LOOK LIKE DECENT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
UPPER AND SURFACE SYSTEM LOOKING A BIT LESS STRONG THAN APPEARING
YESTERDAY...WITH A LITTLE LESS DAYTIME COOLING...DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK OK. WITH THE THURSDAY WAVE LOOKING
WEAKER AND THE FRIDAY IMPULSE LOOKING FAIRLY STRONG BUT WELL
NORTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL...BUT WILL FOR NOW KEEP
THE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OFFERED BY THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE. FRIDAY IS LIKELY TO SEE LOW COVERAGE AND WILL GO
ACCORDINGLY. PROJECTED TEMPERATURES LOOK A TAD ABOVE NORMAL ON LOWS
AND A BUT BELOW NORMAL ON HIGHS...OR NOT AS COOL AS PROJECTED A DAY
OR TWO AGO.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY LOOK LIKE
MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY WITH POPS PEAKING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS DROPPING OFF AGAIN MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE
INCONSISTENT NOT ONLY ON TIMING OF EACH IMPULSE BUT THE STRENGTH
THEREOF...TODAY HINTING AT LESS FLATTENING OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE. THIS SEEMS TO SET UP THE EC SOLUTION OF BUILDING THE RIDGE
WELL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FEW DAYS AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...THAT IS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE SUSPICIONS OF THAT
IDEA IF ONLY BECAUSE OF THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS SUMMERS SOUTHWESTERN
USA TO SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE...AND THE REPEATING SHORT WAVES
BLOCKING THIS RIDGE FROM BUILDING TOO FAR NORTH. BY NEXT
MONDAY...DAY 7...WE SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL...AND WE
WILL SEE IF THAT PROGRESSES TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

OBVIOUSLY THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PASSING WAVES
LEADS TO THE SAME DOUBT IN DAY TO DAY PRECIPITATION THREATS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER TOWARDS KSUX LATE TONIGHT BUT STILL TOO
LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 031950
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A BEAUTIFUL DAY WILL LEAD INTO A BEAUTIFUL EVENING AS FAIRLY DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY BUT JUST A TOUCH COOLER WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...SO MAINLY 80 TO 85 DEGREES.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE MOST PARTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WAVE SLIDES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE ONTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STILL LOOK LIKE DECENT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
UPPER AND SURFACE SYSTEM LOOKING A BIT LESS STRONG THAN APPEARING
YESTERDAY...WITH A LITTLE LESS DAYTIME COOLING...DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK OK. WITH THE THURSDAY WAVE LOOKING
WEAKER AND THE FRIDAY IMPULSE LOOKING FAIRLY STRONG BUT WELL
NORTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL...BUT WILL FOR NOW KEEP
THE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OFFERED BY THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE. FRIDAY IS LIKELY TO SEE LOW COVERAGE AND WILL GO
ACCORDINGLY. PROJECTED TEMPERATURES LOOK A TAD ABOVE NORMAL ON LOWS
AND A BUT BELOW NORMAL ON HIGHS...OR NOT AS COOL AS PROJECTED A DAY
OR TWO AGO.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY LOOK LIKE
MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY WITH POPS PEAKING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS DROPPING OFF AGAIN MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE
INCONSISTENT NOT ONLY ON TIMING OF EACH IMPULSE BUT THE STRENGTH
THEREOF...TODAY HINTING AT LESS FLATTENING OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE. THIS SEEMS TO SET UP THE EC SOLUTION OF BUILDING THE RIDGE
WELL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FEW DAYS AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...THAT IS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE SUSPICIONS OF THAT
IDEA IF ONLY BECAUSE OF THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS SUMMERS SOUTHWESTERN
USA TO SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE...AND THE REPEATING SHORT WAVES
BLOCKING THIS RIDGE FROM BUILDING TOO FAR NORTH. BY NEXT
MONDAY...DAY 7...WE SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL...AND WE
WILL SEE IF THAT PROGRESSES TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

OBVIOUSLY THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PASSING WAVES
LEADS TO THE SAME DOUBT IN DAY TO DAY PRECIPITATION THREATS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER TOWARDS KSUX LATE TONIGHT BUT STILL TOO
LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 031950
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A BEAUTIFUL DAY WILL LEAD INTO A BEAUTIFUL EVENING AS FAIRLY DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY BUT JUST A TOUCH COOLER WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...SO MAINLY 80 TO 85 DEGREES.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE MOST PARTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WAVE SLIDES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE ONTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STILL LOOK LIKE DECENT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
UPPER AND SURFACE SYSTEM LOOKING A BIT LESS STRONG THAN APPEARING
YESTERDAY...WITH A LITTLE LESS DAYTIME COOLING...DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK OK. WITH THE THURSDAY WAVE LOOKING
WEAKER AND THE FRIDAY IMPULSE LOOKING FAIRLY STRONG BUT WELL
NORTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL...BUT WILL FOR NOW KEEP
THE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OFFERED BY THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE. FRIDAY IS LIKELY TO SEE LOW COVERAGE AND WILL GO
ACCORDINGLY. PROJECTED TEMPERATURES LOOK A TAD ABOVE NORMAL ON LOWS
AND A BUT BELOW NORMAL ON HIGHS...OR NOT AS COOL AS PROJECTED A DAY
OR TWO AGO.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY LOOK LIKE
MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY WITH POPS PEAKING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS DROPPING OFF AGAIN MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE
INCONSISTENT NOT ONLY ON TIMING OF EACH IMPULSE BUT THE STRENGTH
THEREOF...TODAY HINTING AT LESS FLATTENING OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE. THIS SEEMS TO SET UP THE EC SOLUTION OF BUILDING THE RIDGE
WELL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FEW DAYS AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...THAT IS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE SUSPICIONS OF THAT
IDEA IF ONLY BECAUSE OF THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS SUMMERS SOUTHWESTERN
USA TO SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE...AND THE REPEATING SHORT WAVES
BLOCKING THIS RIDGE FROM BUILDING TOO FAR NORTH. BY NEXT
MONDAY...DAY 7...WE SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL...AND WE
WILL SEE IF THAT PROGRESSES TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

OBVIOUSLY THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PASSING WAVES
LEADS TO THE SAME DOUBT IN DAY TO DAY PRECIPITATION THREATS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER TOWARDS KSUX LATE TONIGHT BUT STILL TOO
LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KFSD 031923
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
223 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. WHILE THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE THIS
CIRCULATION...THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. ALL THE HI-RES MODELS...NMM...ARW...AND
HRRR...ARE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS MORNING NEAR THE SD/NE
BORDER AND LATEST FOG IMAGERY IS SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS FORMING IN THIS SAME AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO FAR SRN SD...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE TO ADD
A LOW POP INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WEST OF SIOUX CITY FOR TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LATER THIS MORNING. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE INTO HIGH PLAINS
WILL REFOCUS LIFT FARTHER SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850 MB FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SD/NE BORDER. ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST
MODEST...APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG CAPE...FOR PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE
850 MB. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE...1000 TO 2000 J/KG MUCAPE...
BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INHERENT BIAS OF THE NAM FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND DISREGARDED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THAT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN OR MOVE INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH RES MODELS DO SHOW POTENTIAL OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS CONVECTION. AS WITH THIS MORNING...HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION CAN MOVE IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SO DID RAISE POPS TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD BUT KEPT QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH AT THIS TIME. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER SINCE CAPE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST BUT SHOULD NAM
SOLUTION VERIFY...THEN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. DO
NOT EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO GET TOO FAR NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AS THE ATMOSPHERE RAPIDLY STABILIZES AS ON APPROACHES I90.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE BUT THE MISSOURI VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

ON TUESDAY THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN WYOMING SLIDES INTO NEBRASKA
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AREAS BACK TO
THE NORTH AND EAST REMAINING RAIN FREE AS A EAST/NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST KEEPS DRIER AIR OVER THAT AREA.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA SO THINK
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL SIT JUST EITHER SIDE OF 80 DEGREES...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS MOST LIKELY IN OUR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOST
ABUNDANT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT MOST MODELS HAVE THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE
SPLITTING AND TAKE STRENGTHENING ENERGY INTO KANSAS DURING THE
NIGHT...AS THE NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WEAKENS OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN STRENGTHENING THE NORTHERN ENERGY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THUS LIFTS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. FOR THE MOST PART DISCOUNTED THIS
SOLUTION...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE MO RIVER
CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE DEPENDENT ON WHICH
OF THE SOLUTIONS VERIFY...AS MOST MODELS BLOW UP CONVECTION THROUGH
KANSAS WHICH MAY LESSEN OUR RAIN CHANCES HERE. AGAIN THE GFS IS AN
OUTLIER BRINGING THE STRONGER NORTHERN ENERGY INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO HEAVIER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES
IN OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND HIGHER POPS IN OUR WEST AND NORTH AS THE
REMNANT OF THE NORTHERN ENERGY SLIDES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BE A TOUCH COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS MID
70S TO AROUND 80.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
UNSETTLED WITH FAIRLY CONSISTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS MOSTLY LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER TOWARDS KSUX LATE TONIGHT BUT STILL TOO
LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KFSD 031923
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
223 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. WHILE THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE THIS
CIRCULATION...THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. ALL THE HI-RES MODELS...NMM...ARW...AND
HRRR...ARE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS MORNING NEAR THE SD/NE
BORDER AND LATEST FOG IMAGERY IS SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS FORMING IN THIS SAME AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO FAR SRN SD...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE TO ADD
A LOW POP INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WEST OF SIOUX CITY FOR TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LATER THIS MORNING. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE INTO HIGH PLAINS
WILL REFOCUS LIFT FARTHER SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850 MB FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SD/NE BORDER. ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST
MODEST...APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG CAPE...FOR PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE
850 MB. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE...1000 TO 2000 J/KG MUCAPE...
BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INHERENT BIAS OF THE NAM FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND DISREGARDED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THAT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN OR MOVE INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH RES MODELS DO SHOW POTENTIAL OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS CONVECTION. AS WITH THIS MORNING...HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION CAN MOVE IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SO DID RAISE POPS TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD BUT KEPT QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH AT THIS TIME. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER SINCE CAPE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST BUT SHOULD NAM
SOLUTION VERIFY...THEN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. DO
NOT EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO GET TOO FAR NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AS THE ATMOSPHERE RAPIDLY STABILIZES AS ON APPROACHES I90.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE BUT THE MISSOURI VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

ON TUESDAY THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN WYOMING SLIDES INTO NEBRASKA
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AREAS BACK TO
THE NORTH AND EAST REMAINING RAIN FREE AS A EAST/NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST KEEPS DRIER AIR OVER THAT AREA.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA SO THINK
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL SIT JUST EITHER SIDE OF 80 DEGREES...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS MOST LIKELY IN OUR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOST
ABUNDANT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT MOST MODELS HAVE THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE
SPLITTING AND TAKE STRENGTHENING ENERGY INTO KANSAS DURING THE
NIGHT...AS THE NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WEAKENS OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN STRENGTHENING THE NORTHERN ENERGY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THUS LIFTS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. FOR THE MOST PART DISCOUNTED THIS
SOLUTION...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE MO RIVER
CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE DEPENDENT ON WHICH
OF THE SOLUTIONS VERIFY...AS MOST MODELS BLOW UP CONVECTION THROUGH
KANSAS WHICH MAY LESSEN OUR RAIN CHANCES HERE. AGAIN THE GFS IS AN
OUTLIER BRINGING THE STRONGER NORTHERN ENERGY INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO HEAVIER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES
IN OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND HIGHER POPS IN OUR WEST AND NORTH AS THE
REMNANT OF THE NORTHERN ENERGY SLIDES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BE A TOUCH COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS MID
70S TO AROUND 80.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
UNSETTLED WITH FAIRLY CONSISTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS MOSTLY LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER TOWARDS KSUX LATE TONIGHT BUT STILL TOO
LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KFSD 031923
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
223 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. WHILE THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE THIS
CIRCULATION...THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. ALL THE HI-RES MODELS...NMM...ARW...AND
HRRR...ARE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS MORNING NEAR THE SD/NE
BORDER AND LATEST FOG IMAGERY IS SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS FORMING IN THIS SAME AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO FAR SRN SD...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE TO ADD
A LOW POP INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WEST OF SIOUX CITY FOR TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LATER THIS MORNING. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE INTO HIGH PLAINS
WILL REFOCUS LIFT FARTHER SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850 MB FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SD/NE BORDER. ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST
MODEST...APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG CAPE...FOR PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE
850 MB. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE...1000 TO 2000 J/KG MUCAPE...
BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INHERENT BIAS OF THE NAM FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND DISREGARDED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THAT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN OR MOVE INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH RES MODELS DO SHOW POTENTIAL OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS CONVECTION. AS WITH THIS MORNING...HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION CAN MOVE IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SO DID RAISE POPS TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD BUT KEPT QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH AT THIS TIME. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER SINCE CAPE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST BUT SHOULD NAM
SOLUTION VERIFY...THEN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. DO
NOT EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO GET TOO FAR NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AS THE ATMOSPHERE RAPIDLY STABILIZES AS ON APPROACHES I90.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE BUT THE MISSOURI VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

ON TUESDAY THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN WYOMING SLIDES INTO NEBRASKA
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AREAS BACK TO
THE NORTH AND EAST REMAINING RAIN FREE AS A EAST/NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST KEEPS DRIER AIR OVER THAT AREA.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA SO THINK
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL SIT JUST EITHER SIDE OF 80 DEGREES...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS MOST LIKELY IN OUR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOST
ABUNDANT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT MOST MODELS HAVE THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE
SPLITTING AND TAKE STRENGTHENING ENERGY INTO KANSAS DURING THE
NIGHT...AS THE NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WEAKENS OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN STRENGTHENING THE NORTHERN ENERGY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THUS LIFTS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. FOR THE MOST PART DISCOUNTED THIS
SOLUTION...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE MO RIVER
CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE DEPENDENT ON WHICH
OF THE SOLUTIONS VERIFY...AS MOST MODELS BLOW UP CONVECTION THROUGH
KANSAS WHICH MAY LESSEN OUR RAIN CHANCES HERE. AGAIN THE GFS IS AN
OUTLIER BRINGING THE STRONGER NORTHERN ENERGY INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO HEAVIER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES
IN OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND HIGHER POPS IN OUR WEST AND NORTH AS THE
REMNANT OF THE NORTHERN ENERGY SLIDES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BE A TOUCH COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS MID
70S TO AROUND 80.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
UNSETTLED WITH FAIRLY CONSISTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS MOSTLY LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER TOWARDS KSUX LATE TONIGHT BUT STILL TOO
LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KFSD 031923
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
223 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. WHILE THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE THIS
CIRCULATION...THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. ALL THE HI-RES MODELS...NMM...ARW...AND
HRRR...ARE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS MORNING NEAR THE SD/NE
BORDER AND LATEST FOG IMAGERY IS SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS FORMING IN THIS SAME AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO FAR SRN SD...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE TO ADD
A LOW POP INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WEST OF SIOUX CITY FOR TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LATER THIS MORNING. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE INTO HIGH PLAINS
WILL REFOCUS LIFT FARTHER SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850 MB FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SD/NE BORDER. ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST
MODEST...APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG CAPE...FOR PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE
850 MB. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE...1000 TO 2000 J/KG MUCAPE...
BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INHERENT BIAS OF THE NAM FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND DISREGARDED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THAT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN OR MOVE INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH RES MODELS DO SHOW POTENTIAL OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS CONVECTION. AS WITH THIS MORNING...HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION CAN MOVE IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SO DID RAISE POPS TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD BUT KEPT QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH AT THIS TIME. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER SINCE CAPE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST BUT SHOULD NAM
SOLUTION VERIFY...THEN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. DO
NOT EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO GET TOO FAR NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AS THE ATMOSPHERE RAPIDLY STABILIZES AS ON APPROACHES I90.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE BUT THE MISSOURI VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

ON TUESDAY THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN WYOMING SLIDES INTO NEBRASKA
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AREAS BACK TO
THE NORTH AND EAST REMAINING RAIN FREE AS A EAST/NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST KEEPS DRIER AIR OVER THAT AREA.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA SO THINK
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL SIT JUST EITHER SIDE OF 80 DEGREES...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS MOST LIKELY IN OUR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOST
ABUNDANT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT MOST MODELS HAVE THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE
SPLITTING AND TAKE STRENGTHENING ENERGY INTO KANSAS DURING THE
NIGHT...AS THE NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WEAKENS OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN STRENGTHENING THE NORTHERN ENERGY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THUS LIFTS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. FOR THE MOST PART DISCOUNTED THIS
SOLUTION...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE MO RIVER
CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE DEPENDENT ON WHICH
OF THE SOLUTIONS VERIFY...AS MOST MODELS BLOW UP CONVECTION THROUGH
KANSAS WHICH MAY LESSEN OUR RAIN CHANCES HERE. AGAIN THE GFS IS AN
OUTLIER BRINGING THE STRONGER NORTHERN ENERGY INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO HEAVIER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES
IN OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND HIGHER POPS IN OUR WEST AND NORTH AS THE
REMNANT OF THE NORTHERN ENERGY SLIDES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BE A TOUCH COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS MID
70S TO AROUND 80.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
UNSETTLED WITH FAIRLY CONSISTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS MOSTLY LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER TOWARDS KSUX LATE TONIGHT BUT STILL TOO
LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KFSD 031923
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
223 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. WHILE THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE THIS
CIRCULATION...THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. ALL THE HI-RES MODELS...NMM...ARW...AND
HRRR...ARE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS MORNING NEAR THE SD/NE
BORDER AND LATEST FOG IMAGERY IS SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS FORMING IN THIS SAME AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO FAR SRN SD...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE TO ADD
A LOW POP INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WEST OF SIOUX CITY FOR TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LATER THIS MORNING. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE INTO HIGH PLAINS
WILL REFOCUS LIFT FARTHER SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850 MB FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SD/NE BORDER. ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST
MODEST...APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG CAPE...FOR PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE
850 MB. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE...1000 TO 2000 J/KG MUCAPE...
BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INHERENT BIAS OF THE NAM FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND DISREGARDED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THAT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN OR MOVE INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH RES MODELS DO SHOW POTENTIAL OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS CONVECTION. AS WITH THIS MORNING...HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION CAN MOVE IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SO DID RAISE POPS TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD BUT KEPT QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH AT THIS TIME. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER SINCE CAPE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST BUT SHOULD NAM
SOLUTION VERIFY...THEN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. DO
NOT EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO GET TOO FAR NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AS THE ATMOSPHERE RAPIDLY STABILIZES AS ON APPROACHES I90.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE BUT THE MISSOURI VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

ON TUESDAY THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN WYOMING SLIDES INTO NEBRASKA
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AREAS BACK TO
THE NORTH AND EAST REMAINING RAIN FREE AS A EAST/NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST KEEPS DRIER AIR OVER THAT AREA.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA SO THINK
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL SIT JUST EITHER SIDE OF 80 DEGREES...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS MOST LIKELY IN OUR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOST
ABUNDANT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT MOST MODELS HAVE THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE
SPLITTING AND TAKE STRENGTHENING ENERGY INTO KANSAS DURING THE
NIGHT...AS THE NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WEAKENS OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN STRENGTHENING THE NORTHERN ENERGY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THUS LIFTS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. FOR THE MOST PART DISCOUNTED THIS
SOLUTION...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE MO RIVER
CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE DEPENDENT ON WHICH
OF THE SOLUTIONS VERIFY...AS MOST MODELS BLOW UP CONVECTION THROUGH
KANSAS WHICH MAY LESSEN OUR RAIN CHANCES HERE. AGAIN THE GFS IS AN
OUTLIER BRINGING THE STRONGER NORTHERN ENERGY INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO HEAVIER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES
IN OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND HIGHER POPS IN OUR WEST AND NORTH AS THE
REMNANT OF THE NORTHERN ENERGY SLIDES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BE A TOUCH COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS MID
70S TO AROUND 80.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
UNSETTLED WITH FAIRLY CONSISTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS MOSTLY LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER TOWARDS KSUX LATE TONIGHT BUT STILL TOO
LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KFSD 031923
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
223 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. WHILE THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE THIS
CIRCULATION...THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. ALL THE HI-RES MODELS...NMM...ARW...AND
HRRR...ARE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS MORNING NEAR THE SD/NE
BORDER AND LATEST FOG IMAGERY IS SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS FORMING IN THIS SAME AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO FAR SRN SD...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE TO ADD
A LOW POP INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WEST OF SIOUX CITY FOR TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LATER THIS MORNING. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE INTO HIGH PLAINS
WILL REFOCUS LIFT FARTHER SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850 MB FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SD/NE BORDER. ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST
MODEST...APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG CAPE...FOR PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE
850 MB. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE...1000 TO 2000 J/KG MUCAPE...
BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INHERENT BIAS OF THE NAM FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND DISREGARDED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THAT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN OR MOVE INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH RES MODELS DO SHOW POTENTIAL OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS CONVECTION. AS WITH THIS MORNING...HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION CAN MOVE IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SO DID RAISE POPS TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD BUT KEPT QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH AT THIS TIME. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER SINCE CAPE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST BUT SHOULD NAM
SOLUTION VERIFY...THEN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. DO
NOT EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO GET TOO FAR NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AS THE ATMOSPHERE RAPIDLY STABILIZES AS ON APPROACHES I90.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE BUT THE MISSOURI VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

ON TUESDAY THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN WYOMING SLIDES INTO NEBRASKA
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AREAS BACK TO
THE NORTH AND EAST REMAINING RAIN FREE AS A EAST/NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST KEEPS DRIER AIR OVER THAT AREA.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA SO THINK
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL SIT JUST EITHER SIDE OF 80 DEGREES...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS MOST LIKELY IN OUR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOST
ABUNDANT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT MOST MODELS HAVE THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE
SPLITTING AND TAKE STRENGTHENING ENERGY INTO KANSAS DURING THE
NIGHT...AS THE NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WEAKENS OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN STRENGTHENING THE NORTHERN ENERGY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THUS LIFTS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. FOR THE MOST PART DISCOUNTED THIS
SOLUTION...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE MO RIVER
CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE DEPENDENT ON WHICH
OF THE SOLUTIONS VERIFY...AS MOST MODELS BLOW UP CONVECTION THROUGH
KANSAS WHICH MAY LESSEN OUR RAIN CHANCES HERE. AGAIN THE GFS IS AN
OUTLIER BRINGING THE STRONGER NORTHERN ENERGY INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO HEAVIER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES
IN OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND HIGHER POPS IN OUR WEST AND NORTH AS THE
REMNANT OF THE NORTHERN ENERGY SLIDES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BE A TOUCH COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS MID
70S TO AROUND 80.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
UNSETTLED WITH FAIRLY CONSISTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS MOSTLY LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER TOWARDS KSUX LATE TONIGHT BUT STILL TOO
LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KUNR 031738
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1138 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS INTO THE CNDN
ROCKIES...HOWEVER A CUT OFF LOW HAS SLID INTO THE GREAT BASIN
SLOWING DOWN THE OVERALL PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRES REMAINS ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS KEEPING THE REGION CLEAR/DRY. SE/RETURN FLOW WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST. OVERALL SHOULD
STILL BE A QUIET DAY TODAY ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
ACROSS SCNTRL SD AND ALONG THE SRN CWA BORDER INTO NE WY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.

THETA E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE
OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVNG CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS ERN WY TUE MRNG
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. STRONG MOISTURE FEED WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE LOW TUE WITH PWATS RISING TO 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LINGERING
STORMS TUE MRNG WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTN W/
DIURNAL HEATING AND BROAD SCALE FORCING MOVING IN. RIGHT MOVER STORM
MOTION WILL BE VERY SLOW...SO ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL
HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL TUE AFTN/EVNG FOR NOW. CONVECTION WILL END GRADUALLY LATE
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S...BUT COULD END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER IF STORMS GET GOING EARLY IN
THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE. FLAT UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EVEN THOUGH FORCING IS WEAK...THERE IS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALBERTA. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS...ESP INVOF THE BLACK HILLS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 031738
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1138 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS INTO THE CNDN
ROCKIES...HOWEVER A CUT OFF LOW HAS SLID INTO THE GREAT BASIN
SLOWING DOWN THE OVERALL PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRES REMAINS ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS KEEPING THE REGION CLEAR/DRY. SE/RETURN FLOW WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST. OVERALL SHOULD
STILL BE A QUIET DAY TODAY ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
ACROSS SCNTRL SD AND ALONG THE SRN CWA BORDER INTO NE WY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.

THETA E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE
OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVNG CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS ERN WY TUE MRNG
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. STRONG MOISTURE FEED WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE LOW TUE WITH PWATS RISING TO 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LINGERING
STORMS TUE MRNG WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTN W/
DIURNAL HEATING AND BROAD SCALE FORCING MOVING IN. RIGHT MOVER STORM
MOTION WILL BE VERY SLOW...SO ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL
HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL TUE AFTN/EVNG FOR NOW. CONVECTION WILL END GRADUALLY LATE
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S...BUT COULD END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER IF STORMS GET GOING EARLY IN
THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE. FLAT UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EVEN THOUGH FORCING IS WEAK...THERE IS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALBERTA. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS...ESP INVOF THE BLACK HILLS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KABR 031725 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1225 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AND FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
SEE A BROAD ALBEIT WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY...AND DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION WILL COME
IN FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY AM. DRY AIR WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STABLE TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH MAINLY MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILES AND WEAK SHEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES AS THE LEE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. DESPITE WEAKENING
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND NO LOW LEVEL
JET...REMNANT CONVECTION/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT SCATTERED UNORGANIZED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
TO REDEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE THE
EXTENDED WILL BE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IT ALSO STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
GOING TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR...AT LEAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 031725 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1225 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AND FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
SEE A BROAD ALBEIT WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY...AND DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION WILL COME
IN FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY AM. DRY AIR WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STABLE TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH MAINLY MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILES AND WEAK SHEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES AS THE LEE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. DESPITE WEAKENING
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND NO LOW LEVEL
JET...REMNANT CONVECTION/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT SCATTERED UNORGANIZED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
TO REDEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE THE
EXTENDED WILL BE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IT ALSO STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
GOING TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR...AT LEAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE



000
FXUS63 KABR 031524 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1024 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AND FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
SEE A BROAD ALBEIT WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY...AND DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION WILL COME
IN FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY AM. DRY AIR WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STABLE TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH MAINLY MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILES AND WEAK SHEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES AS THE LEE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. DESPITE WEAKENING
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND NO LOW LEVEL
JET...REMNANT CONVECTION/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT SCATTERED UNORGANIZED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
TO REDEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE THE
EXTENDED WILL BE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IT ALSO STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
GOING TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR...AT LEAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE OVER MONTANA
DRIFTING IN THIS DIRECTION FROM WESTERN CONUS WILDFIRES. AT THIS
TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY OBSCURATION OR
RESTRICTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN
THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN



000
FXUS63 KABR 031221 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
721 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AND FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
SEE A BROAD ALBEIT WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY...AND DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION WILL COME
IN FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY AM. DRY AIR WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STABLE TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH MAINLY MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILES AND WEAK SHEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES AS THE LEE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. DESPITE WEAKENING
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND NO LOW LEVEL
JET...REMNANT CONVECTION/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT SCATTERED UNORGANIZED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
TO REDEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE THE
EXTENDED WILL BE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IT ALSO STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
GOING TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR...AT LEAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE OVER MONTANA
DRIFTING IN THIS DIRECTION FROM WESTERN CONUS WILDFIRES. AT THIS
TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY OBSCURATION OR
RESTRICTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN
THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 031221 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
721 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AND FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
SEE A BROAD ALBEIT WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY...AND DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION WILL COME
IN FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY AM. DRY AIR WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STABLE TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH MAINLY MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILES AND WEAK SHEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES AS THE LEE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. DESPITE WEAKENING
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND NO LOW LEVEL
JET...REMNANT CONVECTION/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT SCATTERED UNORGANIZED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
TO REDEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE THE
EXTENDED WILL BE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IT ALSO STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
GOING TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR...AT LEAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE OVER MONTANA
DRIFTING IN THIS DIRECTION FROM WESTERN CONUS WILDFIRES. AT THIS
TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY OBSCURATION OR
RESTRICTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN
THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN



000
FXUS63 KABR 031221 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
721 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AND FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
SEE A BROAD ALBEIT WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY...AND DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION WILL COME
IN FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY AM. DRY AIR WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STABLE TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH MAINLY MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILES AND WEAK SHEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES AS THE LEE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. DESPITE WEAKENING
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND NO LOW LEVEL
JET...REMNANT CONVECTION/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT SCATTERED UNORGANIZED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
TO REDEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE THE
EXTENDED WILL BE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IT ALSO STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
GOING TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR...AT LEAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE OVER MONTANA
DRIFTING IN THIS DIRECTION FROM WESTERN CONUS WILDFIRES. AT THIS
TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY OBSCURATION OR
RESTRICTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN
THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN



000
FXUS63 KABR 031221 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
721 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AND FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
SEE A BROAD ALBEIT WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY...AND DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION WILL COME
IN FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY AM. DRY AIR WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STABLE TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH MAINLY MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILES AND WEAK SHEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES AS THE LEE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. DESPITE WEAKENING
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND NO LOW LEVEL
JET...REMNANT CONVECTION/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT SCATTERED UNORGANIZED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
TO REDEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE THE
EXTENDED WILL BE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IT ALSO STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
GOING TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR...AT LEAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE OVER MONTANA
DRIFTING IN THIS DIRECTION FROM WESTERN CONUS WILDFIRES. AT THIS
TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY OBSCURATION OR
RESTRICTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN
THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 031200
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
700 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. WHILE THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE THIS
CIRCULATION...THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. ALL THE HI-RES MODELS...NMM...ARW...AND
HRRR...ARE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS MORNING NEAR THE SD/NE
BORDER AND LATEST FOG IMAGERY IS SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS FORMING IN THIS SAME AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO FAR SRN SD...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE TO ADD
A LOW POP INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WEST OF SIOUX CITY FOR TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LATER THIS MORNING. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE INTO HIGH PLAINS
WILL REFOCUS LIFT FARTHER SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850 MB FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SD/NE BORDER. ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST
MODEST...APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG CAPE...FOR PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE
850 MB. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE...1000 TO 2000 J/KG MUCAPE...
BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INHERENT BIAS OF THE NAM FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND DISREGARDED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THAT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN OR MOVE INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH RES MODELS DO SHOW POTENTIAL OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS CONVECTION. AS WITH THIS MORNING...HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION CAN MOVE IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SO DID RAISE POPS TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD BUT KEPT QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH AT THIS TIME. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER SINCE CAPE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST BUT SHOULD NAM
SOLUTION VERIFY...THEN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. DO
NOT EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO GET TOO FAR NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AS THE ATMOSPHERE RAPIDLY STABILIZES AS ON APPROACHES I90.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE BUT THE MISSOURI VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

ON TUESDAY THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN WYOMING SLIDES INTO NEBRASKA
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AREAS BACK TO
THE NORTH AND EAST REMAINING RAIN FREE AS A EAST/NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST KEEPS DRIER AIR OVER THAT AREA.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA SO THINK
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL SIT JUST EITHER SIDE OF 80 DEGREES...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS MOST LIKELY IN OUR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOST
ABUNDANT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT MOST MODELS HAVE THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE
SPLITTING AND TAKE STRENGTHENING ENERGY INTO KANSAS DURING THE
NIGHT...AS THE NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WEAKENS OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN STRENGTHENING THE NORTHERN ENERGY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THUS LIFTS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. FOR THE MOST PART DISCOUNTED THIS
SOLUTION...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE MO RIVER
CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE DEPENDENT ON WHICH
OF THE SOLUTIONS VERIFY...AS MOST MODELS BLOW UP CONVECTION THROUGH
KANSAS WHICH MAY LESSEN OUR RAIN CHANCES HERE. AGAIN THE GFS IS AN
OUTLIER BRINGING THE STRONGER NORTHERN ENERGY INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO HEAVIER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES
IN OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND HIGHER POPS IN OUR WEST AND NORTH AS THE
REMNANT OF THE NORTHERN ENERGY SLIDES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BE A TOUCH COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS MID
70S TO AROUND 80.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
UNSETTLED WITH FAIRLY CONSISTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS MOSTLY LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER TOWARDS KSUX AFTER 06Z TONIGHT BUT AT
THIS TIME NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT TO INCLUDE
THREAT IN THE TAF.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER



000
FXUS63 KFSD 031200
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
700 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. WHILE THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE THIS
CIRCULATION...THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. ALL THE HI-RES MODELS...NMM...ARW...AND
HRRR...ARE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS MORNING NEAR THE SD/NE
BORDER AND LATEST FOG IMAGERY IS SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS FORMING IN THIS SAME AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO FAR SRN SD...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE TO ADD
A LOW POP INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WEST OF SIOUX CITY FOR TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LATER THIS MORNING. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE INTO HIGH PLAINS
WILL REFOCUS LIFT FARTHER SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850 MB FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SD/NE BORDER. ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST
MODEST...APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG CAPE...FOR PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE
850 MB. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE...1000 TO 2000 J/KG MUCAPE...
BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INHERENT BIAS OF THE NAM FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND DISREGARDED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THAT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN OR MOVE INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH RES MODELS DO SHOW POTENTIAL OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS CONVECTION. AS WITH THIS MORNING...HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION CAN MOVE IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SO DID RAISE POPS TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD BUT KEPT QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH AT THIS TIME. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER SINCE CAPE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST BUT SHOULD NAM
SOLUTION VERIFY...THEN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. DO
NOT EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO GET TOO FAR NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AS THE ATMOSPHERE RAPIDLY STABILIZES AS ON APPROACHES I90.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE BUT THE MISSOURI VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

ON TUESDAY THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN WYOMING SLIDES INTO NEBRASKA
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AREAS BACK TO
THE NORTH AND EAST REMAINING RAIN FREE AS A EAST/NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST KEEPS DRIER AIR OVER THAT AREA.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA SO THINK
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL SIT JUST EITHER SIDE OF 80 DEGREES...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS MOST LIKELY IN OUR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOST
ABUNDANT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT MOST MODELS HAVE THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE
SPLITTING AND TAKE STRENGTHENING ENERGY INTO KANSAS DURING THE
NIGHT...AS THE NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WEAKENS OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN STRENGTHENING THE NORTHERN ENERGY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THUS LIFTS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. FOR THE MOST PART DISCOUNTED THIS
SOLUTION...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE MO RIVER
CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE DEPENDENT ON WHICH
OF THE SOLUTIONS VERIFY...AS MOST MODELS BLOW UP CONVECTION THROUGH
KANSAS WHICH MAY LESSEN OUR RAIN CHANCES HERE. AGAIN THE GFS IS AN
OUTLIER BRINGING THE STRONGER NORTHERN ENERGY INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO HEAVIER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES
IN OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND HIGHER POPS IN OUR WEST AND NORTH AS THE
REMNANT OF THE NORTHERN ENERGY SLIDES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BE A TOUCH COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS MID
70S TO AROUND 80.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
UNSETTLED WITH FAIRLY CONSISTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS MOSTLY LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER TOWARDS KSUX AFTER 06Z TONIGHT BUT AT
THIS TIME NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT TO INCLUDE
THREAT IN THE TAF.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER




000
FXUS63 KABR 030909
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
409 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AND FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
SEE A BROAD ALBEIT WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY...AND DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION WILL COME
IN FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY AM. DRY AIR WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STABLE TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH MAINLY MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILES AND WEAK SHEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES AS THE LEE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. DESPITE WEAKENING
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND NO LOW LEVEL
JET...REMNANT CONVECTION/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT SCATTERED UNORGANIZED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
TO REDEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE THE
EXTENDED WILL BE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IT ALSO STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
GOING TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR...AT LEAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AGAIN ON
MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES
CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA. THIS SMOKE MAY DRIFT OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY
DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY OBSCURATION/RESTRICTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN



000
FXUS63 KABR 030909
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
409 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AND FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
SEE A BROAD ALBEIT WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY...AND DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION WILL COME
IN FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY AM. DRY AIR WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STABLE TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH MAINLY MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILES AND WEAK SHEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES AS THE LEE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. DESPITE WEAKENING
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND NO LOW LEVEL
JET...REMNANT CONVECTION/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT SCATTERED UNORGANIZED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
TO REDEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE THE
EXTENDED WILL BE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IT ALSO STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
GOING TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR...AT LEAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AGAIN ON
MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES
CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA. THIS SMOKE MAY DRIFT OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY
DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY OBSCURATION/RESTRICTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 030858
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
358 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. WHILE THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE THIS
CIRCULATION...THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. ALL THE HI-RES MODELS...NMM...ARW...AND
HRRR...ARE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS MORNING NEAR THE SD/NE
BORDER AND LATEST FOG IMAGERY IS SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS FORMING IN THIS SAME AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO FAR SRN SD...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE TO ADD
A LOW POP INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WEST OF SIOUX CITY FOR TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LATER THIS MORNING. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE INTO HIGH PLAINS
WILL REFOCUS LIFT FARTHER SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850 MB FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SD/NE BORDER. ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST
MODEST...APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG CAPE...FOR PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE
850 MB. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE...1000 TO 2000 J/KG MUCAPE...
BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INHERENT BIAS OF THE NAM FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND DISREGARDED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THAT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN OR MOVE INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH RES MODELS DO SHOW POTENTIAL OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS CONVECTION. AS WITH THIS MORNING...HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION CAN MOVE IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SO DID RAISE POPS TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD BUT KEPT QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH AT THIS TIME. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER SINCE CAPE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST BUT SHOULD NAM
SOLUTION VERIFY...THEN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. DO
NOT EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO GET TOO FAR NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AS THE ATMOSPHERE RAPIDLY STABILIZES AS ON APPROACHES I90.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE BUT THE MISSOURI VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

ON TUESDAY THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN WYOMING SLIDES INTO NEBRASKA
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AREAS BACK TO
THE NORTH AND EAST REMAINING RAIN FREE AS A EAST/NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST KEEPS DRIER AIR OVER THAT AREA.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA SO THINK
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL SIT JUST EITHER SIDE OF 80 DEGREES...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS MOST LIKELY IN OUR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOST
ABUNDANT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT MOST MODELS HAVE THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE
SPLITTING AND TAKE STRENGTHENING ENERGY INTO KANSAS DURING THE
NIGHT...AS THE NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WEAKENS OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN STRENGTHENING THE NORTHERN ENERGY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THUS LIFTS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. FOR THE MOST PART DISCOUNTED THIS
SOLUTION...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE MO RIVER
CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE DEPENDENT ON WHICH
OF THE SOLUTIONS VERIFY...AS MOST MODELS BLOW UP CONVECTION THROUGH
KANSAS WHICH MAY LESSEN OUR RAIN CHANCES HERE. AGAIN THE GFS IS AN
OUTLIER BRINGING THE STRONGER NORTHERN ENERGY INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO HEAVIER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES
IN OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND HIGHER POPS IN OUR WEST AND NORTH AS THE
REMNANT OF THE NORTHERN ENERGY SLIDES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BE A TOUCH COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS MID
70S TO AROUND 80.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
UNSETTLED WITH FAIRLY CONSISTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS MOSTLY LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY MVFR-IFR SHALLOW FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE MORE
FAVORED IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE DID NOT MIX OUT AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPING AT KSUX IS LOW AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. VARIABLE WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KUNR 030844
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
244 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS INTO THE CNDN
ROCKIES...HOWEVER A CUT OFF LOW HAS SLID INTO THE GREAT BASIN
SLOWING DOWN THE OVERALL PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRES REMAINS ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS KEEPING THE REGION CLEAR/DRY. SE/RETURN FLOW WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST. OVERALL SHOULD
STILL BE A QUIET DAY TODAY ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
ACROSS SCNTRL SD AND ALONG THE SRN CWA BORDER INTO NE WY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.

THETA E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE
OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVNG CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS ERN WY TUE MRNG
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. STRONG MOISTURE FEED WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE LOW TUE WITH PWATS RISING TO 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LINGERING
STORMS TUE MRNG WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTN W/
DIURNAL HEATING AND BROAD SCALE FORCING MOVING IN. RIGHT MOVER STORM
MOTION WILL BE VERY SLOW...SO ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL
HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL TUE AFTN/EVNG FOR NOW. CONVECTION WILL END GRADUALLY LATE
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S...BUT COULD END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER IF STORMS GET GOING EARLY IN
THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE. FLAT UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EVEN THOUGH FORCING IS WEAK...THERE IS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALBERTA. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7



000
FXUS63 KUNR 030844
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
244 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS INTO THE CNDN
ROCKIES...HOWEVER A CUT OFF LOW HAS SLID INTO THE GREAT BASIN
SLOWING DOWN THE OVERALL PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRES REMAINS ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS KEEPING THE REGION CLEAR/DRY. SE/RETURN FLOW WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST. OVERALL SHOULD
STILL BE A QUIET DAY TODAY ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
ACROSS SCNTRL SD AND ALONG THE SRN CWA BORDER INTO NE WY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.

THETA E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE
OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVNG CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS ERN WY TUE MRNG
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. STRONG MOISTURE FEED WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE LOW TUE WITH PWATS RISING TO 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LINGERING
STORMS TUE MRNG WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTN W/
DIURNAL HEATING AND BROAD SCALE FORCING MOVING IN. RIGHT MOVER STORM
MOTION WILL BE VERY SLOW...SO ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL
HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL TUE AFTN/EVNG FOR NOW. CONVECTION WILL END GRADUALLY LATE
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S...BUT COULD END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER IF STORMS GET GOING EARLY IN
THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE. FLAT UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EVEN THOUGH FORCING IS WEAK...THERE IS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALBERTA. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7



000
FXUS63 KUNR 030844
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
244 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS INTO THE CNDN
ROCKIES...HOWEVER A CUT OFF LOW HAS SLID INTO THE GREAT BASIN
SLOWING DOWN THE OVERALL PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRES REMAINS ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS KEEPING THE REGION CLEAR/DRY. SE/RETURN FLOW WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST. OVERALL SHOULD
STILL BE A QUIET DAY TODAY ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
ACROSS SCNTRL SD AND ALONG THE SRN CWA BORDER INTO NE WY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.

THETA E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE
OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVNG CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS ERN WY TUE MRNG
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. STRONG MOISTURE FEED WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE LOW TUE WITH PWATS RISING TO 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LINGERING
STORMS TUE MRNG WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTN W/
DIURNAL HEATING AND BROAD SCALE FORCING MOVING IN. RIGHT MOVER STORM
MOTION WILL BE VERY SLOW...SO ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL
HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL TUE AFTN/EVNG FOR NOW. CONVECTION WILL END GRADUALLY LATE
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S...BUT COULD END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER IF STORMS GET GOING EARLY IN
THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE. FLAT UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EVEN THOUGH FORCING IS WEAK...THERE IS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALBERTA. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7



000
FXUS63 KUNR 030844
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
244 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS INTO THE CNDN
ROCKIES...HOWEVER A CUT OFF LOW HAS SLID INTO THE GREAT BASIN
SLOWING DOWN THE OVERALL PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRES REMAINS ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS KEEPING THE REGION CLEAR/DRY. SE/RETURN FLOW WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST. OVERALL SHOULD
STILL BE A QUIET DAY TODAY ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
ACROSS SCNTRL SD AND ALONG THE SRN CWA BORDER INTO NE WY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.

THETA E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE
OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVNG CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS ERN WY TUE MRNG
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. STRONG MOISTURE FEED WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE LOW TUE WITH PWATS RISING TO 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LINGERING
STORMS TUE MRNG WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTN W/
DIURNAL HEATING AND BROAD SCALE FORCING MOVING IN. RIGHT MOVER STORM
MOTION WILL BE VERY SLOW...SO ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL
HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL TUE AFTN/EVNG FOR NOW. CONVECTION WILL END GRADUALLY LATE
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S...BUT COULD END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER IF STORMS GET GOING EARLY IN
THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE. FLAT UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EVEN THOUGH FORCING IS WEAK...THERE IS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALBERTA. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7



000
FXUS63 KABR 030621 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
121 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND JUST A LIGHT BREEZE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS
WINDS DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT READINGS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE 60S BY 10PM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER COOL...WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60F.

KEEPING AN EYE ON AN AREA OF SMOKE ON VIS SATELLITE THIS EVENING
OVER MONTANA. WITH PREVAILING FLOW AT H7 AND H5 OUT THE THE
NORTHWEST..EXPECT THIS SMOKE TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN THAT HAZY...MILKY WHITE APPEARANCE TO THE
SKY.

FOWLE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THESE CONDITIONS LARGELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EVEN...BUT WILL ALSO
BEGIN WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE SFC TROUGH ALSO MOVES
EAST. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS...MAINLY IN REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ACTUAL
CLOSED LOW AT THE SFC MOVING THROUGH WHILE OTHERS FEATURE MORE OF A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE
POPS HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL SD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER EAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
REFINED BASED ON ANY CHANGES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE
EJECTING LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK SFC LOWS AND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MEAN A WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED. ON WEDNESDAY A 700
MB LOW WILL HELP TSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BY THURSDAY LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC EVEN AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE. FRIDAY HAS THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION BUT BY SATURDAY THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND YET MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO HELP FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AGAIN ON
MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES
CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA. THIS SMOKE MAY DRIFT OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY
DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY OBSCURATION/RESTRICTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 030621 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
121 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND JUST A LIGHT BREEZE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS
WINDS DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT READINGS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE 60S BY 10PM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER COOL...WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60F.

KEEPING AN EYE ON AN AREA OF SMOKE ON VIS SATELLITE THIS EVENING
OVER MONTANA. WITH PREVAILING FLOW AT H7 AND H5 OUT THE THE
NORTHWEST..EXPECT THIS SMOKE TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN THAT HAZY...MILKY WHITE APPEARANCE TO THE
SKY.

FOWLE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THESE CONDITIONS LARGELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EVEN...BUT WILL ALSO
BEGIN WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE SFC TROUGH ALSO MOVES
EAST. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS...MAINLY IN REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ACTUAL
CLOSED LOW AT THE SFC MOVING THROUGH WHILE OTHERS FEATURE MORE OF A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE
POPS HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL SD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER EAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
REFINED BASED ON ANY CHANGES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE
EJECTING LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK SFC LOWS AND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MEAN A WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED. ON WEDNESDAY A 700
MB LOW WILL HELP TSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BY THURSDAY LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC EVEN AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE. FRIDAY HAS THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION BUT BY SATURDAY THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND YET MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO HELP FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AGAIN ON
MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES
CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA. THIS SMOKE MAY DRIFT OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY
DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY OBSCURATION/RESTRICTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN



000
FXUS63 KABR 030621 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
121 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND JUST A LIGHT BREEZE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS
WINDS DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT READINGS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE 60S BY 10PM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER COOL...WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60F.

KEEPING AN EYE ON AN AREA OF SMOKE ON VIS SATELLITE THIS EVENING
OVER MONTANA. WITH PREVAILING FLOW AT H7 AND H5 OUT THE THE
NORTHWEST..EXPECT THIS SMOKE TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN THAT HAZY...MILKY WHITE APPEARANCE TO THE
SKY.

FOWLE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THESE CONDITIONS LARGELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EVEN...BUT WILL ALSO
BEGIN WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE SFC TROUGH ALSO MOVES
EAST. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS...MAINLY IN REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ACTUAL
CLOSED LOW AT THE SFC MOVING THROUGH WHILE OTHERS FEATURE MORE OF A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE
POPS HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL SD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER EAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
REFINED BASED ON ANY CHANGES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE
EJECTING LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK SFC LOWS AND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MEAN A WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED. ON WEDNESDAY A 700
MB LOW WILL HELP TSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BY THURSDAY LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC EVEN AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE. FRIDAY HAS THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION BUT BY SATURDAY THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND YET MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO HELP FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AGAIN ON
MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES
CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA. THIS SMOKE MAY DRIFT OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY
DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY OBSCURATION/RESTRICTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN



000
FXUS63 KABR 030621 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
121 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND JUST A LIGHT BREEZE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS
WINDS DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT READINGS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE 60S BY 10PM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER COOL...WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60F.

KEEPING AN EYE ON AN AREA OF SMOKE ON VIS SATELLITE THIS EVENING
OVER MONTANA. WITH PREVAILING FLOW AT H7 AND H5 OUT THE THE
NORTHWEST..EXPECT THIS SMOKE TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN THAT HAZY...MILKY WHITE APPEARANCE TO THE
SKY.

FOWLE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THESE CONDITIONS LARGELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EVEN...BUT WILL ALSO
BEGIN WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE SFC TROUGH ALSO MOVES
EAST. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS...MAINLY IN REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ACTUAL
CLOSED LOW AT THE SFC MOVING THROUGH WHILE OTHERS FEATURE MORE OF A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE
POPS HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL SD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER EAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
REFINED BASED ON ANY CHANGES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE
EJECTING LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK SFC LOWS AND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MEAN A WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED. ON WEDNESDAY A 700
MB LOW WILL HELP TSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BY THURSDAY LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC EVEN AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE. FRIDAY HAS THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION BUT BY SATURDAY THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND YET MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO HELP FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AGAIN ON
MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES
CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA. THIS SMOKE MAY DRIFT OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY
DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY OBSCURATION/RESTRICTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KUNR 030522
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1122 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWED SUBSTANTIAL CAP...EVEN FOR MUCAPE. 02Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MT INTO
SOUTHEAST WY INTO WEST CENTRAL IA. OVERNIGHT...WEAK EAST/SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL JET WILL OVERRIDE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN MODEST THETA-E
ADVECTION IN A NARROW BAND ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SD. MAY BE ENOUGH
TO ERASE MUCIN AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. HAVE
EXPANDED SMALLS POPS A LITTLE BIT OVERNIGHT FOR THESE AREAS.

REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW FROM CENTRAL
MT THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN
THE BLACK HILLS. A FEW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WY AND SOUTHWEST SD...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COUPLE OF
BUILDUPS OVER THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS HAVE PRODUCED MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SO FAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST IN MOST AREAS.

THE HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO WILL
CONE TO AN END EARLY THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BREAKS DOWN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE
REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR IN MANY AREAS. A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEB AND NOSE INTO
SOUTHWEST SD OVERNIGHT. A SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SHANNON COUNTY EASTWARD TO MELLETTE AND
TODD CO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

WILL SEE A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON MONDAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE RIDGE MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE CLOUDS AND
WEAKENING RIDGE WILL HELP TO BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ON THE PLAINS AND MOSTLY 70S IN THE
BLACK HILLS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES INCREASING A BIT AND SPREADING NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS MINIMAL ON MONDAY AT THIS POINT...BUT A STRONG STORM
OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE IN THE
DAY AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 506 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ACTIVE ON TUESDAY WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. LATEST MODELS STILL
DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS SHOWING ON OPEN TROF OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CLOSING OFF A LOW AT 500MB OVER EASTERN
WYOMING. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS UPPER LOW BECOMES STACKED AT
THE LOWER LEVELS AND TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE
OPENING UP OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM
AS AN OPEN TROF WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH ALL OF
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. NAM SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO
THE ECMWF...BUT KEEPS THE STRONGEST ENERGY OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INSTEAD OF FURTHER SOUTH LIKE THE OTHER MODELS.
REGARDLESS...HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY ESPECIALLY WITH THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT THINK SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME DON/T HAVE CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THOSE AREAS MAY BE.
TEMPERATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINITELY BE NOTICEABLE COOLER
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 70S. EVEN WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE AREA WILL BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
CAPE/SHEAR SUGGEST SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY...BUT MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING AND ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAVE IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT WITH MOISTURE
ALREADY AROUND...EXPECTED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING THIS WAVE STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THIS
TIME WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS...BUT LEAN MORE TOWARD GFS SOLUTION.
ON FRIDAY THE AREA APPEARS TO REMAIN INBETWEEN SYSTEMS...THUS SHOULD
SEE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AGAIN AND MAYBE A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE EXTENDED
MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN...
TRANSITIONING THE AREA FROM ZONAL FLOW INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS
SHOULD BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WITH ENERGY EJECTING
FROM THE LOW...WILL SEE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ELEVATED -TSRA MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN SD. ADDITIONAL
-TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHWEST SD MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 030522
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1122 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWED SUBSTANTIAL CAP...EVEN FOR MUCAPE. 02Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MT INTO
SOUTHEAST WY INTO WEST CENTRAL IA. OVERNIGHT...WEAK EAST/SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL JET WILL OVERRIDE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN MODEST THETA-E
ADVECTION IN A NARROW BAND ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SD. MAY BE ENOUGH
TO ERASE MUCIN AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. HAVE
EXPANDED SMALLS POPS A LITTLE BIT OVERNIGHT FOR THESE AREAS.

REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW FROM CENTRAL
MT THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN
THE BLACK HILLS. A FEW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WY AND SOUTHWEST SD...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COUPLE OF
BUILDUPS OVER THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS HAVE PRODUCED MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SO FAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST IN MOST AREAS.

THE HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO WILL
CONE TO AN END EARLY THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BREAKS DOWN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE
REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR IN MANY AREAS. A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEB AND NOSE INTO
SOUTHWEST SD OVERNIGHT. A SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SHANNON COUNTY EASTWARD TO MELLETTE AND
TODD CO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

WILL SEE A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON MONDAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE RIDGE MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE CLOUDS AND
WEAKENING RIDGE WILL HELP TO BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ON THE PLAINS AND MOSTLY 70S IN THE
BLACK HILLS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES INCREASING A BIT AND SPREADING NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS MINIMAL ON MONDAY AT THIS POINT...BUT A STRONG STORM
OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE IN THE
DAY AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 506 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ACTIVE ON TUESDAY WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. LATEST MODELS STILL
DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS SHOWING ON OPEN TROF OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CLOSING OFF A LOW AT 500MB OVER EASTERN
WYOMING. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS UPPER LOW BECOMES STACKED AT
THE LOWER LEVELS AND TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE
OPENING UP OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM
AS AN OPEN TROF WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH ALL OF
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. NAM SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO
THE ECMWF...BUT KEEPS THE STRONGEST ENERGY OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INSTEAD OF FURTHER SOUTH LIKE THE OTHER MODELS.
REGARDLESS...HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY ESPECIALLY WITH THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT THINK SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME DON/T HAVE CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THOSE AREAS MAY BE.
TEMPERATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINITELY BE NOTICEABLE COOLER
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 70S. EVEN WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE AREA WILL BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
CAPE/SHEAR SUGGEST SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY...BUT MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING AND ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAVE IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT WITH MOISTURE
ALREADY AROUND...EXPECTED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING THIS WAVE STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THIS
TIME WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS...BUT LEAN MORE TOWARD GFS SOLUTION.
ON FRIDAY THE AREA APPEARS TO REMAIN INBETWEEN SYSTEMS...THUS SHOULD
SEE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AGAIN AND MAYBE A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE EXTENDED
MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN...
TRANSITIONING THE AREA FROM ZONAL FLOW INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS
SHOULD BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WITH ENERGY EJECTING
FROM THE LOW...WILL SEE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ELEVATED -TSRA MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN SD. ADDITIONAL
-TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHWEST SD MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 030522
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1122 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWED SUBSTANTIAL CAP...EVEN FOR MUCAPE. 02Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MT INTO
SOUTHEAST WY INTO WEST CENTRAL IA. OVERNIGHT...WEAK EAST/SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL JET WILL OVERRIDE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN MODEST THETA-E
ADVECTION IN A NARROW BAND ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SD. MAY BE ENOUGH
TO ERASE MUCIN AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. HAVE
EXPANDED SMALLS POPS A LITTLE BIT OVERNIGHT FOR THESE AREAS.

REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW FROM CENTRAL
MT THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN
THE BLACK HILLS. A FEW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WY AND SOUTHWEST SD...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COUPLE OF
BUILDUPS OVER THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS HAVE PRODUCED MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SO FAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST IN MOST AREAS.

THE HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO WILL
CONE TO AN END EARLY THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BREAKS DOWN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE
REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR IN MANY AREAS. A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEB AND NOSE INTO
SOUTHWEST SD OVERNIGHT. A SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SHANNON COUNTY EASTWARD TO MELLETTE AND
TODD CO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

WILL SEE A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON MONDAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE RIDGE MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE CLOUDS AND
WEAKENING RIDGE WILL HELP TO BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ON THE PLAINS AND MOSTLY 70S IN THE
BLACK HILLS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES INCREASING A BIT AND SPREADING NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS MINIMAL ON MONDAY AT THIS POINT...BUT A STRONG STORM
OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE IN THE
DAY AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 506 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ACTIVE ON TUESDAY WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. LATEST MODELS STILL
DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS SHOWING ON OPEN TROF OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CLOSING OFF A LOW AT 500MB OVER EASTERN
WYOMING. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS UPPER LOW BECOMES STACKED AT
THE LOWER LEVELS AND TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE
OPENING UP OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM
AS AN OPEN TROF WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH ALL OF
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. NAM SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO
THE ECMWF...BUT KEEPS THE STRONGEST ENERGY OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INSTEAD OF FURTHER SOUTH LIKE THE OTHER MODELS.
REGARDLESS...HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY ESPECIALLY WITH THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT THINK SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME DON/T HAVE CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THOSE AREAS MAY BE.
TEMPERATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINITELY BE NOTICEABLE COOLER
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 70S. EVEN WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE AREA WILL BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
CAPE/SHEAR SUGGEST SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY...BUT MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING AND ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAVE IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT WITH MOISTURE
ALREADY AROUND...EXPECTED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING THIS WAVE STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THIS
TIME WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS...BUT LEAN MORE TOWARD GFS SOLUTION.
ON FRIDAY THE AREA APPEARS TO REMAIN INBETWEEN SYSTEMS...THUS SHOULD
SEE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AGAIN AND MAYBE A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE EXTENDED
MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN...
TRANSITIONING THE AREA FROM ZONAL FLOW INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS
SHOULD BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WITH ENERGY EJECTING
FROM THE LOW...WILL SEE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ELEVATED -TSRA MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN SD. ADDITIONAL
-TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHWEST SD MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...HELGESON



000
FXUS63 KFSD 030408
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1108 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.  THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS POOLED JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES...THIS IS MAKING FOR A
RATHER HUMID AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES.
CONVECTION CHANCES STILL APPEAR MINIMAL...OR FOCUSED JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CWA.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR MOST AREAS...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE AND COOL
AS TEMPERATURES FALL EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.  FURTHER
SOUTH...ELEVATED 700 MB BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.  A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...BUT ANY IMPACT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING PREVAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NOTED BY NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY FREQUENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. BOTH ARE DUE TO THE FLATTENING/SUPPRESSING OF THE PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE CUTS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE. LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
ON WEST SIDE OF MAJOR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL MAKE THE
ADVENT OF RAIN CHANCES SLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE REGION.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE THE THREAT BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS VARY ON
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA WITH DIFFERENT TREATMENTS OF THIS
WAVE. THE NAM IS MODEST...THE GFS IS GUNG HO...AND THE GEM/CANADIAN
LETS THE WAVE SLIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
AREA. THE MODEST APPROACH ON AMOUNTS SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER WAVE IS PEGGED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A
SYSTEM COMING ACROSS ON A TRACK FURTHER NORTH BY FRIDAY. THIS
NORTHERN WAVE SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME RIDGING BEHIND IT
AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY OR SO...WHICH SEEMS TARGETED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY RIGHT NOW. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW BY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER RAIN THREAT.

THE COOL DAYS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHTS THEME SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THIS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY MVFR-IFR SHALLOW FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE MORE
FAVORED IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE DID NOT MIX OUT AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPING AT KSUX IS LOW AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. VARIABLE WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 030408
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1108 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.  THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS POOLED JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES...THIS IS MAKING FOR A
RATHER HUMID AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES.
CONVECTION CHANCES STILL APPEAR MINIMAL...OR FOCUSED JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CWA.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR MOST AREAS...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE AND COOL
AS TEMPERATURES FALL EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.  FURTHER
SOUTH...ELEVATED 700 MB BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.  A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...BUT ANY IMPACT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING PREVAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NOTED BY NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY FREQUENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. BOTH ARE DUE TO THE FLATTENING/SUPPRESSING OF THE PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE CUTS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE. LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
ON WEST SIDE OF MAJOR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL MAKE THE
ADVENT OF RAIN CHANCES SLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE REGION.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE THE THREAT BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS VARY ON
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA WITH DIFFERENT TREATMENTS OF THIS
WAVE. THE NAM IS MODEST...THE GFS IS GUNG HO...AND THE GEM/CANADIAN
LETS THE WAVE SLIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
AREA. THE MODEST APPROACH ON AMOUNTS SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER WAVE IS PEGGED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A
SYSTEM COMING ACROSS ON A TRACK FURTHER NORTH BY FRIDAY. THIS
NORTHERN WAVE SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME RIDGING BEHIND IT
AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY OR SO...WHICH SEEMS TARGETED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY RIGHT NOW. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW BY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER RAIN THREAT.

THE COOL DAYS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHTS THEME SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THIS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY MVFR-IFR SHALLOW FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE MORE
FAVORED IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE DID NOT MIX OUT AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPING AT KSUX IS LOW AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. VARIABLE WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 030408
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1108 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.  THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS POOLED JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES...THIS IS MAKING FOR A
RATHER HUMID AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES.
CONVECTION CHANCES STILL APPEAR MINIMAL...OR FOCUSED JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CWA.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR MOST AREAS...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE AND COOL
AS TEMPERATURES FALL EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.  FURTHER
SOUTH...ELEVATED 700 MB BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.  A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...BUT ANY IMPACT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING PREVAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NOTED BY NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY FREQUENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. BOTH ARE DUE TO THE FLATTENING/SUPPRESSING OF THE PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE CUTS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE. LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
ON WEST SIDE OF MAJOR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL MAKE THE
ADVENT OF RAIN CHANCES SLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE REGION.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE THE THREAT BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS VARY ON
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA WITH DIFFERENT TREATMENTS OF THIS
WAVE. THE NAM IS MODEST...THE GFS IS GUNG HO...AND THE GEM/CANADIAN
LETS THE WAVE SLIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
AREA. THE MODEST APPROACH ON AMOUNTS SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER WAVE IS PEGGED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A
SYSTEM COMING ACROSS ON A TRACK FURTHER NORTH BY FRIDAY. THIS
NORTHERN WAVE SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME RIDGING BEHIND IT
AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY OR SO...WHICH SEEMS TARGETED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY RIGHT NOW. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW BY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER RAIN THREAT.

THE COOL DAYS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHTS THEME SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THIS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY MVFR-IFR SHALLOW FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE MORE
FAVORED IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE DID NOT MIX OUT AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPING AT KSUX IS LOW AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. VARIABLE WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 030408
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1108 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.  THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS POOLED JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES...THIS IS MAKING FOR A
RATHER HUMID AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES.
CONVECTION CHANCES STILL APPEAR MINIMAL...OR FOCUSED JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CWA.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR MOST AREAS...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE AND COOL
AS TEMPERATURES FALL EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.  FURTHER
SOUTH...ELEVATED 700 MB BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.  A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...BUT ANY IMPACT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING PREVAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NOTED BY NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY FREQUENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. BOTH ARE DUE TO THE FLATTENING/SUPPRESSING OF THE PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE CUTS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE. LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
ON WEST SIDE OF MAJOR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL MAKE THE
ADVENT OF RAIN CHANCES SLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE REGION.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE THE THREAT BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS VARY ON
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA WITH DIFFERENT TREATMENTS OF THIS
WAVE. THE NAM IS MODEST...THE GFS IS GUNG HO...AND THE GEM/CANADIAN
LETS THE WAVE SLIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
AREA. THE MODEST APPROACH ON AMOUNTS SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER WAVE IS PEGGED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A
SYSTEM COMING ACROSS ON A TRACK FURTHER NORTH BY FRIDAY. THIS
NORTHERN WAVE SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME RIDGING BEHIND IT
AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY OR SO...WHICH SEEMS TARGETED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY RIGHT NOW. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW BY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER RAIN THREAT.

THE COOL DAYS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHTS THEME SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THIS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY MVFR-IFR SHALLOW FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE MORE
FAVORED IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE DID NOT MIX OUT AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPING AT KSUX IS LOW AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. VARIABLE WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 030408
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1108 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.  THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS POOLED JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES...THIS IS MAKING FOR A
RATHER HUMID AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES.
CONVECTION CHANCES STILL APPEAR MINIMAL...OR FOCUSED JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CWA.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR MOST AREAS...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE AND COOL
AS TEMPERATURES FALL EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.  FURTHER
SOUTH...ELEVATED 700 MB BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.  A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...BUT ANY IMPACT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING PREVAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NOTED BY NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY FREQUENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. BOTH ARE DUE TO THE FLATTENING/SUPPRESSING OF THE PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE CUTS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE. LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
ON WEST SIDE OF MAJOR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL MAKE THE
ADVENT OF RAIN CHANCES SLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE REGION.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE THE THREAT BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS VARY ON
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA WITH DIFFERENT TREATMENTS OF THIS
WAVE. THE NAM IS MODEST...THE GFS IS GUNG HO...AND THE GEM/CANADIAN
LETS THE WAVE SLIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
AREA. THE MODEST APPROACH ON AMOUNTS SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER WAVE IS PEGGED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A
SYSTEM COMING ACROSS ON A TRACK FURTHER NORTH BY FRIDAY. THIS
NORTHERN WAVE SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME RIDGING BEHIND IT
AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY OR SO...WHICH SEEMS TARGETED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY RIGHT NOW. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW BY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER RAIN THREAT.

THE COOL DAYS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHTS THEME SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THIS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY MVFR-IFR SHALLOW FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE MORE
FAVORED IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE DID NOT MIX OUT AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPING AT KSUX IS LOW AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. VARIABLE WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KUNR 030221
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
821 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWED SUBSTANTIAL CAP...EVEN FOR MUCAPE. 02Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MT INTO
SOUTHEAST WY INTO WEST CENTRAL IA. OVERNIGHT...WEAK EAST/SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL JET WILL OVERRIDE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN MODEST THETA-E
ADVECTION IN A NARROW BAND ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SD. MAY BE ENOUGH
TO ERASE MUCIN AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. HAVE
EXPANDED SMALLS POPS A LITTLE BIT OVERNIGHT FOR THESE AREAS.

REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW FROM CENTRAL
MT THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN
THE BLACK HILLS. A FEW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WY AND SOUTHWEST SD...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COUPLE OF
BUILDUPS OVER THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS HAVE PRODUCED MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SO FAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST IN MOST AREAS.

THE HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO WILL
CONE TO AN END EARLY THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BREAKS DOWN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE
REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR IN MANY AREAS. A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEB AND NOSE INTO
SOUTHWEST SD OVERNIGHT. A SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SHANNON COUNTY EASTWARD TO MELLETTE AND
TODD CO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

WILL SEE A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON MONDAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE RIDGE MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE CLOUDS AND
WEAKENING RIDGE WILL HELP TO BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ON THE PLAINS AND MOSTLY 70S IN THE
BLACK HILLS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES INCREASING A BIT AND SPREADING NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS MINIMAL ON MONDAY AT THIS POINT...BUT A STRONG STORM
OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE IN THE
DAY AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 506 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ACTIVE ON TUESDAY WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. LATEST MODELS STILL
DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS SHOWING ON OPEN TROF OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CLOSING OFF A LOW AT 500MB OVER EASTERN
WYOMING. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS UPPER LOW BECOMES STACKED AT
THE LOWER LEVELS AND TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE
OPENING UP OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM
AS AN OPEN TROF WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH ALL OF
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. NAM SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO
THE ECMWF...BUT KEEPS THE STRONGEST ENERGY OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INSTEAD OF FURTHER SOUTH LIKE THE OTHER MODELS.
REGARDLESS...HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY ESPECIALLY WITH THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT THINK SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME DON/T HAVE CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THOSE AREAS MAY BE.
TEMPERATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINITELY BE NOTICEABLE COOLER
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 70S. EVEN WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE AREA WILL BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
CAPE/SHEAR SUGGEST SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY...BUT MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING AND ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAVE IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT WITH MOISTURE
ALREADY AROUND...EXPECTED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING THIS WAVE STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THIS
TIME WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS...BUT LEAN MORE TOWARD GFS SOLUTION.
ON FRIDAY THE AREA APPEARS TO REMAIN INBETWEEN SYSTEMS...THUS SHOULD
SEE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AGAIN AND MAYBE A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE EXTENDED
MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN...
TRANSITIONING THE AREA FROM ZONAL FLOW INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS
SHOULD BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WITH ENERGY EJECTING
FROM THE LOW...WILL SEE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 506 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED -TSRA
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...HELGESON



000
FXUS63 KUNR 030221
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
821 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWED SUBSTANTIAL CAP...EVEN FOR MUCAPE. 02Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MT INTO
SOUTHEAST WY INTO WEST CENTRAL IA. OVERNIGHT...WEAK EAST/SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL JET WILL OVERRIDE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN MODEST THETA-E
ADVECTION IN A NARROW BAND ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SD. MAY BE ENOUGH
TO ERASE MUCIN AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. HAVE
EXPANDED SMALLS POPS A LITTLE BIT OVERNIGHT FOR THESE AREAS.

REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW FROM CENTRAL
MT THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN
THE BLACK HILLS. A FEW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WY AND SOUTHWEST SD...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COUPLE OF
BUILDUPS OVER THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS HAVE PRODUCED MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SO FAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST IN MOST AREAS.

THE HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO WILL
CONE TO AN END EARLY THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BREAKS DOWN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE
REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR IN MANY AREAS. A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEB AND NOSE INTO
SOUTHWEST SD OVERNIGHT. A SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SHANNON COUNTY EASTWARD TO MELLETTE AND
TODD CO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

WILL SEE A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON MONDAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE RIDGE MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE CLOUDS AND
WEAKENING RIDGE WILL HELP TO BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ON THE PLAINS AND MOSTLY 70S IN THE
BLACK HILLS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES INCREASING A BIT AND SPREADING NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS MINIMAL ON MONDAY AT THIS POINT...BUT A STRONG STORM
OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE IN THE
DAY AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 506 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ACTIVE ON TUESDAY WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. LATEST MODELS STILL
DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS SHOWING ON OPEN TROF OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CLOSING OFF A LOW AT 500MB OVER EASTERN
WYOMING. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS UPPER LOW BECOMES STACKED AT
THE LOWER LEVELS AND TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE
OPENING UP OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM
AS AN OPEN TROF WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH ALL OF
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. NAM SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO
THE ECMWF...BUT KEEPS THE STRONGEST ENERGY OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INSTEAD OF FURTHER SOUTH LIKE THE OTHER MODELS.
REGARDLESS...HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY ESPECIALLY WITH THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT THINK SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME DON/T HAVE CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THOSE AREAS MAY BE.
TEMPERATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINITELY BE NOTICEABLE COOLER
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 70S. EVEN WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE AREA WILL BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
CAPE/SHEAR SUGGEST SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY...BUT MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING AND ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAVE IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT WITH MOISTURE
ALREADY AROUND...EXPECTED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING THIS WAVE STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THIS
TIME WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS...BUT LEAN MORE TOWARD GFS SOLUTION.
ON FRIDAY THE AREA APPEARS TO REMAIN INBETWEEN SYSTEMS...THUS SHOULD
SEE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AGAIN AND MAYBE A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE EXTENDED
MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN...
TRANSITIONING THE AREA FROM ZONAL FLOW INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS
SHOULD BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WITH ENERGY EJECTING
FROM THE LOW...WILL SEE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 506 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED -TSRA
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KABR 030033
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
733 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND JUST A LIGHT BREEZE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS
WINDS DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT READINGS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE 60S BY 10PM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER COOL...WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60F.

KEEPING AN EYE ON AN AREA OF SMOKE ON VIS SATELLITE THIS EVENING
OVER MONTANA. WITH PREVAILING FLOW AT H7 AND H5 OUT THE THE
NORTHWEST..EXPECT THIS SMOKE TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN THAT HAZY...MILKY WHITE APPEARANCE TO THE
SKY.

FOWLE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THESE CONDITIONS LARGELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EVEN...BUT WILL ALSO
BEGIN WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE SFC TROUGH ALSO MOVES
EAST. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS...MAINLY IN REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ACTUAL
CLOSED LOW AT THE SFC MOVING THROUGH WHILE OTHERS FEATURE MORE OF A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE
POPS HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL SD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER EAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
REFINED BASED ON ANY CHANGES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE
EJECTING LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK SFC LOWS AND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MEAN A WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED. ON WEDNESDAY A 700
MB LOW WILL HELP TSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BY THURSDAY LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC EVEN AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE. FRIDAY HAS THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION BUT BY SATURDAY THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND YET MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO HELP FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
AGAIN ON MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA. THIS SMOKE MAY DRIFT OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...FOWLE




000
FXUS63 KABR 030033
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
733 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND JUST A LIGHT BREEZE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS
WINDS DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT READINGS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE 60S BY 10PM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER COOL...WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60F.

KEEPING AN EYE ON AN AREA OF SMOKE ON VIS SATELLITE THIS EVENING
OVER MONTANA. WITH PREVAILING FLOW AT H7 AND H5 OUT THE THE
NORTHWEST..EXPECT THIS SMOKE TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN THAT HAZY...MILKY WHITE APPEARANCE TO THE
SKY.

FOWLE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THESE CONDITIONS LARGELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EVEN...BUT WILL ALSO
BEGIN WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE SFC TROUGH ALSO MOVES
EAST. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS...MAINLY IN REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ACTUAL
CLOSED LOW AT THE SFC MOVING THROUGH WHILE OTHERS FEATURE MORE OF A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE
POPS HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL SD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER EAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
REFINED BASED ON ANY CHANGES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE
EJECTING LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK SFC LOWS AND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MEAN A WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED. ON WEDNESDAY A 700
MB LOW WILL HELP TSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BY THURSDAY LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC EVEN AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE. FRIDAY HAS THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION BUT BY SATURDAY THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND YET MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO HELP FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
AGAIN ON MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA. THIS SMOKE MAY DRIFT OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...FOWLE




000
FXUS63 KABR 030033
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
733 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND JUST A LIGHT BREEZE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS
WINDS DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT READINGS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE 60S BY 10PM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER COOL...WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60F.

KEEPING AN EYE ON AN AREA OF SMOKE ON VIS SATELLITE THIS EVENING
OVER MONTANA. WITH PREVAILING FLOW AT H7 AND H5 OUT THE THE
NORTHWEST..EXPECT THIS SMOKE TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN THAT HAZY...MILKY WHITE APPEARANCE TO THE
SKY.

FOWLE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THESE CONDITIONS LARGELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EVEN...BUT WILL ALSO
BEGIN WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE SFC TROUGH ALSO MOVES
EAST. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS...MAINLY IN REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ACTUAL
CLOSED LOW AT THE SFC MOVING THROUGH WHILE OTHERS FEATURE MORE OF A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE
POPS HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL SD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER EAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
REFINED BASED ON ANY CHANGES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE
EJECTING LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK SFC LOWS AND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MEAN A WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED. ON WEDNESDAY A 700
MB LOW WILL HELP TSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BY THURSDAY LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC EVEN AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE. FRIDAY HAS THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION BUT BY SATURDAY THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND YET MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO HELP FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
AGAIN ON MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA. THIS SMOKE MAY DRIFT OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...FOWLE




000
FXUS63 KABR 030033
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
733 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND JUST A LIGHT BREEZE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS
WINDS DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT READINGS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE 60S BY 10PM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER COOL...WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60F.

KEEPING AN EYE ON AN AREA OF SMOKE ON VIS SATELLITE THIS EVENING
OVER MONTANA. WITH PREVAILING FLOW AT H7 AND H5 OUT THE THE
NORTHWEST..EXPECT THIS SMOKE TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN THAT HAZY...MILKY WHITE APPEARANCE TO THE
SKY.

FOWLE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THESE CONDITIONS LARGELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EVEN...BUT WILL ALSO
BEGIN WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE SFC TROUGH ALSO MOVES
EAST. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS...MAINLY IN REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ACTUAL
CLOSED LOW AT THE SFC MOVING THROUGH WHILE OTHERS FEATURE MORE OF A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE
POPS HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL SD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER EAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
REFINED BASED ON ANY CHANGES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE
EJECTING LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK SFC LOWS AND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MEAN A WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED. ON WEDNESDAY A 700
MB LOW WILL HELP TSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BY THURSDAY LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC EVEN AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE. FRIDAY HAS THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION BUT BY SATURDAY THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND YET MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO HELP FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
AGAIN ON MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA. THIS SMOKE MAY DRIFT OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...FOWLE




000
FXUS63 KABR 022344
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
644 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THESE CONDITIONS LARGELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EVEN...BUT WILL ALSO
BEGIN WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE SFC TROUGH ALSO MOVES
EAST. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS...MAINLY IN REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ACTUAL
CLOSED LOW AT THE SFC MOVING THROUGH WHILE OTHERS FEATURE MORE OF A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE
POPS HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL SD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER EAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
REFINED BASED ON ANY CHANGES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE
EJECTING LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK SFC LOWS AND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MEAN A WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED. ON WEDNESDAY A 700
MB LOW WILL HELP TSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BY THURSDAY LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC EVEN AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE. FRIDAY HAS THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION BUT BY SATURDAY THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND YET MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO HELP FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
AGAIN ON MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA. THIS SMOKE MAY DRIFT OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...FOWLE



000
FXUS63 KABR 022344
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
644 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THESE CONDITIONS LARGELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EVEN...BUT WILL ALSO
BEGIN WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE SFC TROUGH ALSO MOVES
EAST. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS...MAINLY IN REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ACTUAL
CLOSED LOW AT THE SFC MOVING THROUGH WHILE OTHERS FEATURE MORE OF A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE
POPS HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL SD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER EAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
REFINED BASED ON ANY CHANGES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE
EJECTING LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK SFC LOWS AND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MEAN A WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED. ON WEDNESDAY A 700
MB LOW WILL HELP TSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BY THURSDAY LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC EVEN AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE. FRIDAY HAS THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION BUT BY SATURDAY THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND YET MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO HELP FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
AGAIN ON MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA. THIS SMOKE MAY DRIFT OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...FOWLE




000
FXUS63 KFSD 022325
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
625 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.  THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS POOLED JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES...THIS IS MAKING FOR A
RATHER HUMID AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES.
CONVECTION CHANCES STILL APPEAR MINIMAL...OR FOCUSED JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CWA.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR MOST AREAS...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE AND COOL
AS TEMPERATURES FALL EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.  FURTHER
SOUTH...ELEVATED 700 MB BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.  A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...BUT ANY IMPACT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING PREVAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NOTED BY NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY FREQUENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. BOTH ARE DUE TO THE FLATTENING/SUPPRESSING OF THE PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE CUTS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE. LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
ON WEST SIDE OF MAJOR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL MAKE THE
ADVENT OF RAIN CHANCES SLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE REGION.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE THE THREAT BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS VARY ON
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA WITH DIFFERENT TREATMENTS OF THIS
WAVE. THE NAM IS MODEST...THE GFS IS GUNG HO...AND THE GEM/CANADIAN
LETS THE WAVE SLIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
AREA. THE MODEST APPROACH ON AMOUNTS SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER WAVE IS PEGGED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A
SYSTEM COMING ACROSS ON A TRACK FURTHER NORTH BY FRIDAY. THIS
NORTHERN WAVE SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME RIDGING BEHIND IT
AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY OR SO...WHICH SEEMS TARGETED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY RIGHT NOW. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW BY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER RAIN THREAT.

THE COOL DAYS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHTS THEME SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THIS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY MVFR-IFR SHALLOW FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA. HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT MOST LIKELY LOCATION WOULD BE IN KSUX
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WAS MOST LIMITED DURING THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 022325
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
625 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.  THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS POOLED JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES...THIS IS MAKING FOR A
RATHER HUMID AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES.
CONVECTION CHANCES STILL APPEAR MINIMAL...OR FOCUSED JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CWA.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR MOST AREAS...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE AND COOL
AS TEMPERATURES FALL EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.  FURTHER
SOUTH...ELEVATED 700 MB BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.  A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...BUT ANY IMPACT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING PREVAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NOTED BY NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY FREQUENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. BOTH ARE DUE TO THE FLATTENING/SUPPRESSING OF THE PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE CUTS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE. LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
ON WEST SIDE OF MAJOR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL MAKE THE
ADVENT OF RAIN CHANCES SLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE REGION.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE THE THREAT BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS VARY ON
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA WITH DIFFERENT TREATMENTS OF THIS
WAVE. THE NAM IS MODEST...THE GFS IS GUNG HO...AND THE GEM/CANADIAN
LETS THE WAVE SLIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
AREA. THE MODEST APPROACH ON AMOUNTS SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER WAVE IS PEGGED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A
SYSTEM COMING ACROSS ON A TRACK FURTHER NORTH BY FRIDAY. THIS
NORTHERN WAVE SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME RIDGING BEHIND IT
AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY OR SO...WHICH SEEMS TARGETED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY RIGHT NOW. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW BY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER RAIN THREAT.

THE COOL DAYS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHTS THEME SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THIS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY MVFR-IFR SHALLOW FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA. HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT MOST LIKELY LOCATION WOULD BE IN KSUX
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WAS MOST LIMITED DURING THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 022325
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
625 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.  THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS POOLED JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES...THIS IS MAKING FOR A
RATHER HUMID AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES.
CONVECTION CHANCES STILL APPEAR MINIMAL...OR FOCUSED JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CWA.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR MOST AREAS...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE AND COOL
AS TEMPERATURES FALL EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.  FURTHER
SOUTH...ELEVATED 700 MB BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.  A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...BUT ANY IMPACT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING PREVAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NOTED BY NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY FREQUENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. BOTH ARE DUE TO THE FLATTENING/SUPPRESSING OF THE PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE CUTS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE. LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
ON WEST SIDE OF MAJOR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL MAKE THE
ADVENT OF RAIN CHANCES SLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE REGION.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE THE THREAT BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS VARY ON
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA WITH DIFFERENT TREATMENTS OF THIS
WAVE. THE NAM IS MODEST...THE GFS IS GUNG HO...AND THE GEM/CANADIAN
LETS THE WAVE SLIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
AREA. THE MODEST APPROACH ON AMOUNTS SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER WAVE IS PEGGED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A
SYSTEM COMING ACROSS ON A TRACK FURTHER NORTH BY FRIDAY. THIS
NORTHERN WAVE SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME RIDGING BEHIND IT
AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY OR SO...WHICH SEEMS TARGETED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY RIGHT NOW. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW BY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER RAIN THREAT.

THE COOL DAYS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHTS THEME SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THIS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY MVFR-IFR SHALLOW FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA. HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT MOST LIKELY LOCATION WOULD BE IN KSUX
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WAS MOST LIMITED DURING THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 022325
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
625 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.  THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS POOLED JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES...THIS IS MAKING FOR A
RATHER HUMID AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES.
CONVECTION CHANCES STILL APPEAR MINIMAL...OR FOCUSED JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CWA.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR MOST AREAS...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE AND COOL
AS TEMPERATURES FALL EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.  FURTHER
SOUTH...ELEVATED 700 MB BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.  A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...BUT ANY IMPACT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING PREVAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NOTED BY NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY FREQUENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. BOTH ARE DUE TO THE FLATTENING/SUPPRESSING OF THE PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE CUTS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE. LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
ON WEST SIDE OF MAJOR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL MAKE THE
ADVENT OF RAIN CHANCES SLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE REGION.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE THE THREAT BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS VARY ON
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA WITH DIFFERENT TREATMENTS OF THIS
WAVE. THE NAM IS MODEST...THE GFS IS GUNG HO...AND THE GEM/CANADIAN
LETS THE WAVE SLIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
AREA. THE MODEST APPROACH ON AMOUNTS SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER WAVE IS PEGGED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A
SYSTEM COMING ACROSS ON A TRACK FURTHER NORTH BY FRIDAY. THIS
NORTHERN WAVE SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME RIDGING BEHIND IT
AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY OR SO...WHICH SEEMS TARGETED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY RIGHT NOW. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW BY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER RAIN THREAT.

THE COOL DAYS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHTS THEME SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THIS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY MVFR-IFR SHALLOW FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA. HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT MOST LIKELY LOCATION WOULD BE IN KSUX
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WAS MOST LIMITED DURING THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KUNR 022310
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
510 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW FROM CENTRAL
MT THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN
THE BLACK HILLS. A FEW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WY AND SOUTHWEST SD...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COUPLE OF
BUILDUPS OVER THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS HAVE PRODUCED MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SO FAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST IN MOST AREAS.

THE HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO WILL
CONE TO AN END EARLY THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BREAKS DOWN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE
REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR IN MANY AREAS. A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEB AND NOSE INTO
SOUTHWEST SD OVERNIGHT. A SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SHANNON COUNTY EASTWARD TO MELLETTE AND
TODD CO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

WILL SEE A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON MONDAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE RIDGE MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE CLOUDS AND
WEAKENING RIDGE WILL HELP TO BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ON THE PLAINS AND MOSTLY 70S IN THE
BLACK HILLS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES INCREASING A BIT AND SPREADING NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS MINIMAL ON MONDAY AT THIS POINT...BUT A STRONG STORM
OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE IN THE
DAY AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 506 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ACTIVE ON TUESDAY WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. LATEST MODELS STILL
DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS SHOWING ON OPEN TROF OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CLOSING OFF A LOW AT 500MB OVER EASTERN
WYOMING. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS UPPER LOW BECOMES STACKED AT
THE LOWER LEVELS AND TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE
OPENING UP OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM
AS AN OPEN TROF WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH ALL OF
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. NAM SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO
THE ECMWF...BUT KEEPS THE STRONGEST ENERGY OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INSTEAD OF FURTHER SOUTH LIKE THE OTHER MODELS.
REGARDLESS...HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY ESPECIALLY WITH THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT THINK SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME DON/T HAVE CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THOSE AREAS MAY BE.
TEMPERATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINITELY BE NOTICEABLE COOLER
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 70S. EVEN WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE AREA WILL BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
CAPE/SHEAR SUGGEST SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY...BUT MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING AND ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAVE IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT WITH MOISTURE
ALREADY AROUND...EXPECTED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING THIS WAVE STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THIS
TIME WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS...BUT LEAN MORE TOWARD GFS SOLUTION.
ON FRIDAY THE AREA APPEARS TO REMAIN INBETWEEN SYSTEMS...THUS SHOULD
SEE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AGAIN AND MAYBE A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE EXTENDED
MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN...
TRANSITIONING THE AREA FROM ZONAL FLOW INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS
SHOULD BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WITH ENERGY EJECTING
FROM THE LOW...WILL SEE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 506 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED -TSRA
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...HELGESON



000
FXUS63 KUNR 022100
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
300 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW FROM CENTRAL
MT THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN
THE BLACK HILLS. A FEW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WY AND SOUTHWEST SD...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COUPLE OF
BUILDUPS OVER THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS HAVE PRODUCED MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SO FAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST IN MOST AREAS.

THE HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO WILL
CONE TO AN END EARLY THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BREAKS DOWN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE
REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR IN MANY AREAS. A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEB AND NOSE INTO
SOUTHWEST SD OVERNIGHT. A SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SHANNON COUNTY EASTWARD TO MELLETTE AND
TODD CO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

WILL SEE A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON MONDAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE RIDGE MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE CLOUDS AND
WEAKENING RIDGE WILL HELP TO BRING A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IN TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S ON THE PLAINS AND MOSTLY 70S IN THE BLACK HILLS.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES
INCREASING A BIT AND SPREADING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS MINIMAL ON MONDAY
AT THIS POINT...BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THIS WEEK...WITH BEST
CHANCE COMING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
UPPER IMPULSE KNOCKING DOWN RIDGE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES WITH GFS/ECMWF/GEM...TRACKING SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA. 00Z NAM  MUCH STRONGER WITH SURFACE
TO 700MB LOW THAN THE OTHER MODELS. IT APPEARS NAM IS SUFFERING WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...AS IT DUMPS 6+ INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. AREA WILL BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES BL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. CAPE/SHEAR SUGGEST MARGINAL
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY...BUT MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. WENT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT
UPPER TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. FLAT UPPER RIDGE
THEN SETS OVER THE ROCKIES AS TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10



000
FXUS63 KUNR 022100
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
300 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW FROM CENTRAL
MT THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN
THE BLACK HILLS. A FEW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WY AND SOUTHWEST SD...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COUPLE OF
BUILDUPS OVER THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS HAVE PRODUCED MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SO FAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST IN MOST AREAS.

THE HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO WILL
CONE TO AN END EARLY THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BREAKS DOWN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE
REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR IN MANY AREAS. A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEB AND NOSE INTO
SOUTHWEST SD OVERNIGHT. A SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SHANNON COUNTY EASTWARD TO MELLETTE AND
TODD CO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

WILL SEE A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON MONDAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE RIDGE MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE CLOUDS AND
WEAKENING RIDGE WILL HELP TO BRING A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IN TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S ON THE PLAINS AND MOSTLY 70S IN THE BLACK HILLS.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES
INCREASING A BIT AND SPREADING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS MINIMAL ON MONDAY
AT THIS POINT...BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THIS WEEK...WITH BEST
CHANCE COMING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
UPPER IMPULSE KNOCKING DOWN RIDGE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES WITH GFS/ECMWF/GEM...TRACKING SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA. 00Z NAM  MUCH STRONGER WITH SURFACE
TO 700MB LOW THAN THE OTHER MODELS. IT APPEARS NAM IS SUFFERING WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...AS IT DUMPS 6+ INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. AREA WILL BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES BL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. CAPE/SHEAR SUGGEST MARGINAL
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY...BUT MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. WENT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT
UPPER TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. FLAT UPPER RIDGE
THEN SETS OVER THE ROCKIES AS TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10




000
FXUS63 KFSD 021954
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.  THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS POOLED JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES...THIS IS MAKING FOR A
RATHER HUMID AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES.
CONVECTION CHANCES STILL APPEAR MINIMAL...OR FOCUSED JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CWA.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR MOST AREAS...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE AND COOL
AS TEMPERATURES FALL EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.  FURTHER
SOUTH...ELEVATED 700 MB BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.  A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...BUT ANY IMPACT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING PREVAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NOTED BY NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY FREQUENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. BOTH ARE DUE TO THE FLATTENING/SUPRESSING OF THE PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE CUTS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE. LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
ON WEST SIDE OF MAJOR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL MAKE THE
ADVENT OF RAIN CHANCES SLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE REGION.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE THE THREAT BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS VARY ON
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA WITH DIFFERENT TREATMENTS OF THIS
WAVE. THE NAM IS MODEST...THE GFS IS GUNG HO...AND THE GEM/CANADIAN
LETS THE WAVE SLIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
AREA. THE MODEST APPROACH ON AMOUNTS SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER WAVE IS PEGGED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A
SYSTEM COMING ACROSS ON A TRACK FURTHER NORTH BY FRIDAY. THIS
NORTHERN WAVE SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME RIDGING BEHIND IT
AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY OR SO...WHICH SEEMS TARGETED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY RIGHT NOW. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW BY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER RAIN THREAT.

THE COOL DAYS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHTS THEME SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THIS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING KSUX AT MID-DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH...BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL CU IN
THE VICINITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH.

OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY. WINDS COULD TURN VARIABLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 021954
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.  THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS POOLED JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES...THIS IS MAKING FOR A
RATHER HUMID AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES.
CONVECTION CHANCES STILL APPEAR MINIMAL...OR FOCUSED JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CWA.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR MOST AREAS...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE AND COOL
AS TEMPERATURES FALL EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.  FURTHER
SOUTH...ELEVATED 700 MB BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.  A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...BUT ANY IMPACT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING PREVAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NOTED BY NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY FREQUENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. BOTH ARE DUE TO THE FLATTENING/SUPRESSING OF THE PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE CUTS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE. LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
ON WEST SIDE OF MAJOR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL MAKE THE
ADVENT OF RAIN CHANCES SLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE REGION.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE THE THREAT BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS VARY ON
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA WITH DIFFERENT TREATMENTS OF THIS
WAVE. THE NAM IS MODEST...THE GFS IS GUNG HO...AND THE GEM/CANADIAN
LETS THE WAVE SLIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
AREA. THE MODEST APPROACH ON AMOUNTS SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER WAVE IS PEGGED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A
SYSTEM COMING ACROSS ON A TRACK FURTHER NORTH BY FRIDAY. THIS
NORTHERN WAVE SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME RIDGING BEHIND IT
AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY OR SO...WHICH SEEMS TARGETED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY RIGHT NOW. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW BY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER RAIN THREAT.

THE COOL DAYS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHTS THEME SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THIS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING KSUX AT MID-DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH...BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL CU IN
THE VICINITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH.

OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY. WINDS COULD TURN VARIABLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KFSD 021954
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.  THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS POOLED JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES...THIS IS MAKING FOR A
RATHER HUMID AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES.
CONVECTION CHANCES STILL APPEAR MINIMAL...OR FOCUSED JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CWA.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR MOST AREAS...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE AND COOL
AS TEMPERATURES FALL EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.  FURTHER
SOUTH...ELEVATED 700 MB BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.  A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...BUT ANY IMPACT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING PREVAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NOTED BY NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY FREQUENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. BOTH ARE DUE TO THE FLATTENING/SUPRESSING OF THE PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE CUTS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE. LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
ON WEST SIDE OF MAJOR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL MAKE THE
ADVENT OF RAIN CHANCES SLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE REGION.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE THE THREAT BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS VARY ON
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA WITH DIFFERENT TREATMENTS OF THIS
WAVE. THE NAM IS MODEST...THE GFS IS GUNG HO...AND THE GEM/CANADIAN
LETS THE WAVE SLIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
AREA. THE MODEST APPROACH ON AMOUNTS SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER WAVE IS PEGGED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A
SYSTEM COMING ACROSS ON A TRACK FURTHER NORTH BY FRIDAY. THIS
NORTHERN WAVE SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME RIDGING BEHIND IT
AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY OR SO...WHICH SEEMS TARGETED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY RIGHT NOW. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW BY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER RAIN THREAT.

THE COOL DAYS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHTS THEME SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THIS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING KSUX AT MID-DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH...BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL CU IN
THE VICINITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH.

OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY. WINDS COULD TURN VARIABLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KFSD 021954
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.  THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS POOLED JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES...THIS IS MAKING FOR A
RATHER HUMID AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES.
CONVECTION CHANCES STILL APPEAR MINIMAL...OR FOCUSED JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CWA.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR MOST AREAS...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE AND COOL
AS TEMPERATURES FALL EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.  FURTHER
SOUTH...ELEVATED 700 MB BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.  A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...BUT ANY IMPACT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING PREVAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NOTED BY NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY FREQUENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. BOTH ARE DUE TO THE FLATTENING/SUPRESSING OF THE PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE CUTS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE. LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
ON WEST SIDE OF MAJOR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL MAKE THE
ADVENT OF RAIN CHANCES SLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE REGION.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE THE THREAT BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS VARY ON
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA WITH DIFFERENT TREATMENTS OF THIS
WAVE. THE NAM IS MODEST...THE GFS IS GUNG HO...AND THE GEM/CANADIAN
LETS THE WAVE SLIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
AREA. THE MODEST APPROACH ON AMOUNTS SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER WAVE IS PEGGED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A
SYSTEM COMING ACROSS ON A TRACK FURTHER NORTH BY FRIDAY. THIS
NORTHERN WAVE SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME RIDGING BEHIND IT
AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY OR SO...WHICH SEEMS TARGETED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY RIGHT NOW. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW BY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER RAIN THREAT.

THE COOL DAYS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHTS THEME SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THIS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING KSUX AT MID-DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH...BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL CU IN
THE VICINITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH.

OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY. WINDS COULD TURN VARIABLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KABR 021934
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
234 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THESE CONDITIONS LARGELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EVEN...BUT WILL ALSO
BEGIN WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE SFC TROUGH ALSO MOVES
EAST. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS...MAINLY IN REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ACTUAL
CLOSED LOW AT THE SFC MOVING THROUGH WHILE OTHERS FEATURE MORE OF A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE
POPS HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL SD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER EAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
REFINED BASED ON ANY CHANGES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE
EJECTING LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK SFC LOWS AND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MEAN A WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED. ON WEDNESDAY A 700
MB LOW WILL HELP TSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BY THURSDAY LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC EVEN AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE. FRIDAY HAS THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION BUT BY SATURDAY THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND YET MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO HELP FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE



000
FXUS63 KUNR 021749
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1149 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN CONUS TODAY. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY
TODAY. NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING E/SE
TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW SETS BACK UP OVER THE CWA. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. THETA E ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES. THE BLACK HILLS INTO SW SD
MAY SEE ISOLATED STORMS MON AFTN...HOWEVER CHANCES WILL INCREASE
INTO THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG WAVE
CROSSING THE NRN TO CNTRL ROCKIES. BEST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS PTNS OF NE WY...THROUGH THE BLKHLS AREA
INTO SW/SCNTRL SD.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THIS WEEK...WITH BEST
CHANCE COMING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
UPPER IMPULSE KNOCKING DOWN RIDGE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES WITH GFS/ECMWF/GEM...TRACKING SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA. 00Z NAM  MUCH STRONGER WITH SURFACE
TO 700MB LOW THAN THE OTHER MODELS. IT APPEARS NAM IS SUFFERING WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...AS IT DUMPS 6+ INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. AREA WILL BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES BL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. CAPE/SHEAR SUGGEST MARGINAL
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY...BUT MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. WENT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT
UPPER TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. FLAT UPPER RIDGE
THEN SETS OVER THE ROCKIES AS TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...10



000
FXUS63 KUNR 021749
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1149 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN CONUS TODAY. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY
TODAY. NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING E/SE
TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW SETS BACK UP OVER THE CWA. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. THETA E ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES. THE BLACK HILLS INTO SW SD
MAY SEE ISOLATED STORMS MON AFTN...HOWEVER CHANCES WILL INCREASE
INTO THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG WAVE
CROSSING THE NRN TO CNTRL ROCKIES. BEST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS PTNS OF NE WY...THROUGH THE BLKHLS AREA
INTO SW/SCNTRL SD.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THIS WEEK...WITH BEST
CHANCE COMING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
UPPER IMPULSE KNOCKING DOWN RIDGE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES WITH GFS/ECMWF/GEM...TRACKING SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA. 00Z NAM  MUCH STRONGER WITH SURFACE
TO 700MB LOW THAN THE OTHER MODELS. IT APPEARS NAM IS SUFFERING WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...AS IT DUMPS 6+ INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. AREA WILL BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES BL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. CAPE/SHEAR SUGGEST MARGINAL
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY...BUT MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. WENT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT
UPPER TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. FLAT UPPER RIDGE
THEN SETS OVER THE ROCKIES AS TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...10




000
FXUS63 KABR 021728 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONT IS THROUGH THE CWA WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS NOW IN
PLACE. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 021728 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONT IS THROUGH THE CWA WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS NOW IN
PLACE. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE



000
FXUS63 KFSD 021714
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1214 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY...MAKING IT THROUGH OUR CWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING OR MOISTURE...THE MAIN EFFECTS
FOR OUR AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS DURING THE DAY AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS BY AFTERNOON. IN SPITE
OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH GOOD MIXING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 80S THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE
MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AS THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN
THE MISSOURI VALLEY. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. INSTEAD...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...EXPECT ANOTHER FAIRLY EFFICIENT MIXING DAY EVEN THOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF I90 WITH MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 80 TO 85.

A VERY SLOW MOVING WAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE THIS
WAVE IS WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
FIRST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...ALL MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF
THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONVECTION BETWEEN I70 AND I80 AND MAY DELAY OR LIMIT
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO THE CANADIAN GEM
KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN NEBRASKA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR SHOWING THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH MOISTURE
RETURN AND TIMING GENERALLY KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS AT 50 PERCENT OR
LESS.

OVERALL...EXPECT THE 850 MB THETA-E GRADIENT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THERE WILL BE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY BUT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONT AS WELL AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HURON TO
STORM LAKE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THE WAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL FINALLY
REACH SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I90 IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS
TIME...THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF INCH OF RAIN OR
MORE IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WHILE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LITTLE IF
ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
DIURNAL RANGE WILL DECREASE. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT
IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. THE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
RAINFALL WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY AROUND 80 WHILE
LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG I90 AND INTO EAST
CENTRAL SD. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
TO THE MID 60S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

IN THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK WAVES MID TO
LATE WEEK. BUT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO BOTH CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...HAVE HIGHER POPS...30 TO 50 PERCENT...ON WEDNESDAY.
THEN...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES...BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO BOTH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASES.
AT THIS POINT...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY GENERALLY LOOK DRY ALTHOUGH
DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I29 FRIDAY AS THE
FIRST WAVE EXITS AND THEN WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING KSUX AT MID-DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH...BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL CU IN
THE VICINITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH.

OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY. WINDS COULD TURN VARIABLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 021714
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1214 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY...MAKING IT THROUGH OUR CWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING OR MOISTURE...THE MAIN EFFECTS
FOR OUR AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS DURING THE DAY AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS BY AFTERNOON. IN SPITE
OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH GOOD MIXING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 80S THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE
MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AS THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN
THE MISSOURI VALLEY. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. INSTEAD...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...EXPECT ANOTHER FAIRLY EFFICIENT MIXING DAY EVEN THOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF I90 WITH MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 80 TO 85.

A VERY SLOW MOVING WAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE THIS
WAVE IS WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
FIRST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...ALL MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF
THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONVECTION BETWEEN I70 AND I80 AND MAY DELAY OR LIMIT
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO THE CANADIAN GEM
KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN NEBRASKA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR SHOWING THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH MOISTURE
RETURN AND TIMING GENERALLY KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS AT 50 PERCENT OR
LESS.

OVERALL...EXPECT THE 850 MB THETA-E GRADIENT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THERE WILL BE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY BUT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONT AS WELL AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HURON TO
STORM LAKE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THE WAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL FINALLY
REACH SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I90 IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS
TIME...THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF INCH OF RAIN OR
MORE IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WHILE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LITTLE IF
ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
DIURNAL RANGE WILL DECREASE. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT
IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. THE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
RAINFALL WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY AROUND 80 WHILE
LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG I90 AND INTO EAST
CENTRAL SD. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
TO THE MID 60S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

IN THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK WAVES MID TO
LATE WEEK. BUT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO BOTH CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...HAVE HIGHER POPS...30 TO 50 PERCENT...ON WEDNESDAY.
THEN...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES...BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO BOTH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASES.
AT THIS POINT...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY GENERALLY LOOK DRY ALTHOUGH
DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I29 FRIDAY AS THE
FIRST WAVE EXITS AND THEN WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING KSUX AT MID-DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH...BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL CU IN
THE VICINITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH.

OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY. WINDS COULD TURN VARIABLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KABR 021557 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1057 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONT IS THROUGH THE CWA WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS NOW IN
PLACE. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDS ARE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND BECOMING BREEZY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR GOOD
VFR ON BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
GUSTINESS SUBSIDES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN



000
FXUS63 KABR 021557 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1057 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONT IS THROUGH THE CWA WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS NOW IN
PLACE. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDS ARE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND BECOMING BREEZY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR GOOD
VFR ON BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
GUSTINESS SUBSIDES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 021557 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1057 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONT IS THROUGH THE CWA WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS NOW IN
PLACE. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDS ARE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND BECOMING BREEZY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR GOOD
VFR ON BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
GUSTINESS SUBSIDES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN



000
FXUS63 KABR 021224 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
724 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 721 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR THE ONE WEAK THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED
OVER FAULK CO AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROF MOVING THROUGH WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE...BUT AS CAPE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND SHIFT SOUTH...NOT
EXPECTING THIS STORM WILL DO MUCH MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDS ARE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND BECOMING BREEZY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR GOOD
VFR ON BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
GUSTINESS SUBSIDES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 021224 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
724 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 721 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR THE ONE WEAK THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED
OVER FAULK CO AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROF MOVING THROUGH WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE...BUT AS CAPE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND SHIFT SOUTH...NOT
EXPECTING THIS STORM WILL DO MUCH MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDS ARE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND BECOMING BREEZY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR GOOD
VFR ON BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
GUSTINESS SUBSIDES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN



000
FXUS63 KABR 021224 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
724 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 721 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR THE ONE WEAK THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED
OVER FAULK CO AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROF MOVING THROUGH WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE...BUT AS CAPE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND SHIFT SOUTH...NOT
EXPECTING THIS STORM WILL DO MUCH MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDS ARE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND BECOMING BREEZY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR GOOD
VFR ON BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
GUSTINESS SUBSIDES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 021224 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
724 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 721 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR THE ONE WEAK THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED
OVER FAULK CO AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROF MOVING THROUGH WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE...BUT AS CAPE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND SHIFT SOUTH...NOT
EXPECTING THIS STORM WILL DO MUCH MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDS ARE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND BECOMING BREEZY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR GOOD
VFR ON BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
GUSTINESS SUBSIDES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN



000
FXUS63 KFSD 021117
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
617 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY...MAKING IT THROUGH OUR CWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING OR MOISTURE...THE MAIN EFFECTS
FOR OUR AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS DURING THE DAY AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS BY AFTERNOON. IN SPITE
OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH GOOD MIXING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 80S THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE
MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AS THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN
THE MISSOURI VALLEY. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. INSTEAD...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...EXPECT ANOTHER FAIRLY EFFICIENT MIXING DAY EVEN THOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF I90 WITH MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 80 TO 85.

A VERY SLOW MOVING WAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE THIS
WAVE IS WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
FIRST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...ALL MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF
THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONVECTION BETWEEN I70 AND I80 AND MAY DELAY OR LIMIT
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO THE CANADIAN GEM
KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN NEBRASKA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR SHOWING THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH MOISTURE
RETURN AND TIMING GENERALLY KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS AT 50 PERCENT OR
LESS.

OVERALL...EXPECT THE 850 MB THETA-E GRADIENT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THERE WILL BE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY BUT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONT AS WELL AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HURON TO
STORM LAKE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THE WAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL FINALLY
REACH SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I90 IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS
TIME...THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF INCH OF RAIN OR
MORE IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WHILE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LITTLE IF
ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
DIURNAL RANGE WILL DECREASE. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT
IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. THE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
RAINFALL WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY AROUND 80 WHILE
LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG I90 AND INTO EAST
CENTRAL SD. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
TO THE MID 60S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

IN THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK WAVES MID TO
LATE WEEK. BUT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO BOTH CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...HAVE HIGHER POPS...30 TO 50 PERCENT...ON WEDNESDAY.
THEN...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES...BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO BOTH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASES.
AT THIS POINT...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY GENERALLY LOOK DRY ALTHOUGH
DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I29 FRIDAY AS THE
FIRST WAVE EXITS AND THEN WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...JM



000
FXUS63 KFSD 021117
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
617 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY...MAKING IT THROUGH OUR CWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING OR MOISTURE...THE MAIN EFFECTS
FOR OUR AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS DURING THE DAY AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS BY AFTERNOON. IN SPITE
OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH GOOD MIXING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 80S THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE
MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AS THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN
THE MISSOURI VALLEY. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. INSTEAD...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...EXPECT ANOTHER FAIRLY EFFICIENT MIXING DAY EVEN THOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF I90 WITH MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 80 TO 85.

A VERY SLOW MOVING WAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE THIS
WAVE IS WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
FIRST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...ALL MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF
THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONVECTION BETWEEN I70 AND I80 AND MAY DELAY OR LIMIT
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO THE CANADIAN GEM
KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN NEBRASKA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR SHOWING THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH MOISTURE
RETURN AND TIMING GENERALLY KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS AT 50 PERCENT OR
LESS.

OVERALL...EXPECT THE 850 MB THETA-E GRADIENT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THERE WILL BE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY BUT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONT AS WELL AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HURON TO
STORM LAKE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THE WAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL FINALLY
REACH SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I90 IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS
TIME...THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF INCH OF RAIN OR
MORE IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WHILE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LITTLE IF
ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
DIURNAL RANGE WILL DECREASE. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT
IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. THE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
RAINFALL WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY AROUND 80 WHILE
LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG I90 AND INTO EAST
CENTRAL SD. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
TO THE MID 60S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

IN THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK WAVES MID TO
LATE WEEK. BUT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO BOTH CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...HAVE HIGHER POPS...30 TO 50 PERCENT...ON WEDNESDAY.
THEN...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES...BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO BOTH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASES.
AT THIS POINT...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY GENERALLY LOOK DRY ALTHOUGH
DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I29 FRIDAY AS THE
FIRST WAVE EXITS AND THEN WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...JM



000
FXUS63 KFSD 021117
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
617 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY...MAKING IT THROUGH OUR CWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING OR MOISTURE...THE MAIN EFFECTS
FOR OUR AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS DURING THE DAY AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS BY AFTERNOON. IN SPITE
OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH GOOD MIXING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 80S THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE
MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AS THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN
THE MISSOURI VALLEY. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. INSTEAD...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...EXPECT ANOTHER FAIRLY EFFICIENT MIXING DAY EVEN THOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF I90 WITH MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 80 TO 85.

A VERY SLOW MOVING WAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE THIS
WAVE IS WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
FIRST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...ALL MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF
THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONVECTION BETWEEN I70 AND I80 AND MAY DELAY OR LIMIT
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO THE CANADIAN GEM
KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN NEBRASKA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR SHOWING THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH MOISTURE
RETURN AND TIMING GENERALLY KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS AT 50 PERCENT OR
LESS.

OVERALL...EXPECT THE 850 MB THETA-E GRADIENT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THERE WILL BE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY BUT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONT AS WELL AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HURON TO
STORM LAKE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THE WAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL FINALLY
REACH SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I90 IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS
TIME...THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF INCH OF RAIN OR
MORE IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WHILE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LITTLE IF
ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
DIURNAL RANGE WILL DECREASE. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT
IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. THE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
RAINFALL WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY AROUND 80 WHILE
LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG I90 AND INTO EAST
CENTRAL SD. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
TO THE MID 60S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

IN THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK WAVES MID TO
LATE WEEK. BUT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO BOTH CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...HAVE HIGHER POPS...30 TO 50 PERCENT...ON WEDNESDAY.
THEN...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES...BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO BOTH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASES.
AT THIS POINT...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY GENERALLY LOOK DRY ALTHOUGH
DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I29 FRIDAY AS THE
FIRST WAVE EXITS AND THEN WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 021117
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
617 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY...MAKING IT THROUGH OUR CWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING OR MOISTURE...THE MAIN EFFECTS
FOR OUR AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS DURING THE DAY AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS BY AFTERNOON. IN SPITE
OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH GOOD MIXING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 80S THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE
MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AS THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN
THE MISSOURI VALLEY. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. INSTEAD...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...EXPECT ANOTHER FAIRLY EFFICIENT MIXING DAY EVEN THOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF I90 WITH MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 80 TO 85.

A VERY SLOW MOVING WAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE THIS
WAVE IS WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
FIRST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...ALL MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF
THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONVECTION BETWEEN I70 AND I80 AND MAY DELAY OR LIMIT
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO THE CANADIAN GEM
KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN NEBRASKA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR SHOWING THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH MOISTURE
RETURN AND TIMING GENERALLY KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS AT 50 PERCENT OR
LESS.

OVERALL...EXPECT THE 850 MB THETA-E GRADIENT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THERE WILL BE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY BUT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONT AS WELL AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HURON TO
STORM LAKE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THE WAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL FINALLY
REACH SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I90 IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS
TIME...THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF INCH OF RAIN OR
MORE IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WHILE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LITTLE IF
ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
DIURNAL RANGE WILL DECREASE. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT
IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. THE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
RAINFALL WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY AROUND 80 WHILE
LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG I90 AND INTO EAST
CENTRAL SD. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
TO THE MID 60S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

IN THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK WAVES MID TO
LATE WEEK. BUT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO BOTH CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...HAVE HIGHER POPS...30 TO 50 PERCENT...ON WEDNESDAY.
THEN...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES...BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO BOTH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASES.
AT THIS POINT...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY GENERALLY LOOK DRY ALTHOUGH
DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I29 FRIDAY AS THE
FIRST WAVE EXITS AND THEN WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KABR 021010
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
510 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR THE ONE WEAK THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED
OVER FAULK CO AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROF MOVING THROUGH WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE...BUT AS CAPE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND SHIFT SOUTH...NOT
EXPECTING THIS STORM WILL DO MUCH MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM AT KATY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH N/NWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS
AFTER 16Z OR 17Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN



000
FXUS63 KABR 021010
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
510 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR THE ONE WEAK THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED
OVER FAULK CO AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROF MOVING THROUGH WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE...BUT AS CAPE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND SHIFT SOUTH...NOT
EXPECTING THIS STORM WILL DO MUCH MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM AT KATY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH N/NWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS
AFTER 16Z OR 17Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN



000
FXUS63 KABR 021010
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
510 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR THE ONE WEAK THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED
OVER FAULK CO AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROF MOVING THROUGH WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE...BUT AS CAPE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND SHIFT SOUTH...NOT
EXPECTING THIS STORM WILL DO MUCH MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM AT KATY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH N/NWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS
AFTER 16Z OR 17Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KUNR 020903
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
303 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN CONUS TODAY. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY
TODAY. NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING E/SE
TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW SETS BACK UP OVER THE CWA. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. THETA E ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES. THE BLACK HILLS INTO SW SD
MAY SEE ISOLATED STORMS MON AFTN...HOWEVER CHANCES WILL INCREASE
INTO THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG WAVE
CROSSING THE NRN TO CNTRL ROCKIES. BEST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS PTNS OF NE WY...THROUGH THE BLKHLS AREA
INTO SW/SCNTRL SD.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THIS WEEK...WITH BEST
CHANCE COMING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
UPPER IMPULSE KNOCKING DOWN RIDGE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES WITH GFS/ECMWF/GEM...TRACKING SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA. 00Z NAM  MUCH STRONGER WITH SURFACE
TO 700MB LOW THAN THE OTHER MODELS. IT APPEARS NAM IS SUFFERING WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...AS IT DUMPS 6+ INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. AREA WILL BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES BL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. CAPE/SHEAR SUGGEST MARGINAL
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY...BUT MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. WENT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT
UPPER TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. FLAT UPPER RIDGE
THEN SETS OVER THE ROCKIES AS TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7



000
FXUS63 KUNR 020903
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
303 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN CONUS TODAY. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY
TODAY. NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING E/SE
TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW SETS BACK UP OVER THE CWA. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. THETA E ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES. THE BLACK HILLS INTO SW SD
MAY SEE ISOLATED STORMS MON AFTN...HOWEVER CHANCES WILL INCREASE
INTO THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG WAVE
CROSSING THE NRN TO CNTRL ROCKIES. BEST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS PTNS OF NE WY...THROUGH THE BLKHLS AREA
INTO SW/SCNTRL SD.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THIS WEEK...WITH BEST
CHANCE COMING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
UPPER IMPULSE KNOCKING DOWN RIDGE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES WITH GFS/ECMWF/GEM...TRACKING SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA. 00Z NAM  MUCH STRONGER WITH SURFACE
TO 700MB LOW THAN THE OTHER MODELS. IT APPEARS NAM IS SUFFERING WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...AS IT DUMPS 6+ INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. AREA WILL BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES BL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. CAPE/SHEAR SUGGEST MARGINAL
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY...BUT MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. WENT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT
UPPER TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. FLAT UPPER RIDGE
THEN SETS OVER THE ROCKIES AS TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7




000
FXUS63 KUNR 020903
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
303 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN CONUS TODAY. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY
TODAY. NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING E/SE
TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW SETS BACK UP OVER THE CWA. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. THETA E ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES. THE BLACK HILLS INTO SW SD
MAY SEE ISOLATED STORMS MON AFTN...HOWEVER CHANCES WILL INCREASE
INTO THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG WAVE
CROSSING THE NRN TO CNTRL ROCKIES. BEST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS PTNS OF NE WY...THROUGH THE BLKHLS AREA
INTO SW/SCNTRL SD.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THIS WEEK...WITH BEST
CHANCE COMING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
UPPER IMPULSE KNOCKING DOWN RIDGE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES WITH GFS/ECMWF/GEM...TRACKING SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA. 00Z NAM  MUCH STRONGER WITH SURFACE
TO 700MB LOW THAN THE OTHER MODELS. IT APPEARS NAM IS SUFFERING WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...AS IT DUMPS 6+ INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. AREA WILL BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES BL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. CAPE/SHEAR SUGGEST MARGINAL
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY...BUT MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. WENT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT
UPPER TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. FLAT UPPER RIDGE
THEN SETS OVER THE ROCKIES AS TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7




000
FXUS63 KFSD 020853
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY...MAKING IT THROUGH OUR CWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING OR MOISTURE...THE MAIN EFFECTS
FOR OUR AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAY AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS BY AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY WITH GOOD MIXING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S THROUGH
THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AS THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN
THE MISSOURI VALLEY. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. INSTEAD...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...EXPECT ANOTHER FAIRLY EFFICIENT MIXING DAY EVEN THOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF I90 WITH MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 80 TO 85.

A VERY SLOW MOVING WAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE THIS
WAVE IS WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
FIRST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...ALL MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF
THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONVECTION BETWEEN I70 AND I80 AND MAY DELAY OR LIMIT
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO THE CANADIAN GEM
KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN NEBRASKA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR SHOWING THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH MOISTURE
RETURN AND TIMING GENERALLY KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS AT 50 PERCENT OR
LESS.

OVERALL...EXPECT THE 850 MB THETA-E GRADIENT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THERE WILL BE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY BUT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONT AS WELL AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HURON TO
STORM LAKE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THE WAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL FINALLY
REACH SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I90 IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS
TIME...THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF INCH OF RAIN OR
MORE IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WHILE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LITTLE IF
ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
DIURNAL RANGE WILL DECREASE. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT
IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. THE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
RAINFALL WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY AROUND 80 WHILE
LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG I90 AND INTO EAST
CENTRAL SD. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
TO THE MID 60S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

IN THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK WAVES MID TO
LATE WEEK. BUT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO BOTH CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...HAVE HIGHER POPS...30 TO 50 PERCENT...ON WEDNESDAY.
THEN...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES...BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO BOTH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASES.
AT THIS POINT...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY GENERALLY LOOK DRY ALTHOUGH
DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I29 FRIDAY AS THE
FIRST WAVE EXITS AND THEN WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 020853
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY...MAKING IT THROUGH OUR CWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING OR MOISTURE...THE MAIN EFFECTS
FOR OUR AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAY AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS BY AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY WITH GOOD MIXING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S THROUGH
THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AS THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN
THE MISSOURI VALLEY. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. INSTEAD...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...EXPECT ANOTHER FAIRLY EFFICIENT MIXING DAY EVEN THOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF I90 WITH MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 80 TO 85.

A VERY SLOW MOVING WAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE THIS
WAVE IS WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
FIRST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...ALL MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF
THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONVECTION BETWEEN I70 AND I80 AND MAY DELAY OR LIMIT
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO THE CANADIAN GEM
KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN NEBRASKA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR SHOWING THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH MOISTURE
RETURN AND TIMING GENERALLY KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS AT 50 PERCENT OR
LESS.

OVERALL...EXPECT THE 850 MB THETA-E GRADIENT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THERE WILL BE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY BUT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONT AS WELL AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HURON TO
STORM LAKE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THE WAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL FINALLY
REACH SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I90 IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS
TIME...THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF INCH OF RAIN OR
MORE IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WHILE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LITTLE IF
ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
DIURNAL RANGE WILL DECREASE. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT
IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. THE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
RAINFALL WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY AROUND 80 WHILE
LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG I90 AND INTO EAST
CENTRAL SD. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
TO THE MID 60S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

IN THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK WAVES MID TO
LATE WEEK. BUT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO BOTH CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...HAVE HIGHER POPS...30 TO 50 PERCENT...ON WEDNESDAY.
THEN...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES...BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO BOTH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASES.
AT THIS POINT...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY GENERALLY LOOK DRY ALTHOUGH
DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I29 FRIDAY AS THE
FIRST WAVE EXITS AND THEN WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...JM



000
FXUS63 KABR 020848
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM AT KATY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH N/NWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS
AFTER 16Z OR 17Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 020848
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM AT KATY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH N/NWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS
AFTER 16Z OR 17Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 020848
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM AT KATY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH N/NWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS
AFTER 16Z OR 17Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN



000
FXUS63 KABR 020536 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1236 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER FORCING/ASCENT HAS BEEN TOO WEAK TO INITIATE STORMS THUS
FAR...AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK LLJ DOES DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...BUT ANY
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST
AREA. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

OVERALL A DRY PATTERN SHAPING UP IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES..ONCE WE GET PAST THIS EVENING. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS PROBABILITY OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING. CAMS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION
PLACEMENT THOUGH MOST DO GO AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AFTERNOON ANALYSIS..A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON WV IMAGERY IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST JUST CLIPPING THE CENTRAL SD/ND BORDER. THIS IS HELPING TO
GENERATE SOME ACCAS IN ND. THERE IS ALSO A BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF
MOBRIDGE..WITH NO SHEAR WEST OF THE LINE BUT AROUND 40 KTS EAST OF
THE LINE. A MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS FROM BISMARCK SOUTHEAST TO
ORTONVILLE. THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AVENUE FOR ANY DISCRETE
CELL FORMATION LATER TODAY SINCE LCLS ARE AROUND 1500. THIS WOULD
ALSO MEAN MOST STORMS WOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST OF ABERDEEN WHICH
GELS WELL WITH THE 4000 J/KG BULLS-EYE OF CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN BROWN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MT MAY HELP
INCREASE FORCING AS WELL IF IT MANAGES TO ARRIVE IN A TIMELY MANNER.

KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH 3Z.
DID NOT MENTION T+ BUT IF AND WHEN ANYTHING DOES FIRE CHANCES OF IT
GOING SEVERE ARE GOOD SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE. WITH GOOD
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD NOW SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THERMAL
PROGS...WHICH HIGHLIGHT A RELATIVELY COOLER REGIME COMPARED TO WHAT
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING IN RECENT WEEKS.
SUPERBLEND REVEALS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
AND THIS SEEMS OK GIVEN MODELS 850 MB TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE
FORECAST IS STILL PLASTERED WITH POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GRANTED...THE PATTERN DOES GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE BUT IT STILL
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT SINCE MODELS ARE NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF A SFC HIGH INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WELL
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME REMOVAL OF POPS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM AT KATY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH N/NWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS
AFTER 16Z OR 17Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN



000
FXUS63 KABR 020536 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1236 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER FORCING/ASCENT HAS BEEN TOO WEAK TO INITIATE STORMS THUS
FAR...AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK LLJ DOES DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...BUT ANY
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST
AREA. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

OVERALL A DRY PATTERN SHAPING UP IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES..ONCE WE GET PAST THIS EVENING. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS PROBABILITY OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING. CAMS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION
PLACEMENT THOUGH MOST DO GO AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AFTERNOON ANALYSIS..A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON WV IMAGERY IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST JUST CLIPPING THE CENTRAL SD/ND BORDER. THIS IS HELPING TO
GENERATE SOME ACCAS IN ND. THERE IS ALSO A BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF
MOBRIDGE..WITH NO SHEAR WEST OF THE LINE BUT AROUND 40 KTS EAST OF
THE LINE. A MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS FROM BISMARCK SOUTHEAST TO
ORTONVILLE. THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AVENUE FOR ANY DISCRETE
CELL FORMATION LATER TODAY SINCE LCLS ARE AROUND 1500. THIS WOULD
ALSO MEAN MOST STORMS WOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST OF ABERDEEN WHICH
GELS WELL WITH THE 4000 J/KG BULLS-EYE OF CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN BROWN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MT MAY HELP
INCREASE FORCING AS WELL IF IT MANAGES TO ARRIVE IN A TIMELY MANNER.

KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH 3Z.
DID NOT MENTION T+ BUT IF AND WHEN ANYTHING DOES FIRE CHANCES OF IT
GOING SEVERE ARE GOOD SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE. WITH GOOD
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD NOW SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THERMAL
PROGS...WHICH HIGHLIGHT A RELATIVELY COOLER REGIME COMPARED TO WHAT
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING IN RECENT WEEKS.
SUPERBLEND REVEALS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
AND THIS SEEMS OK GIVEN MODELS 850 MB TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE
FORECAST IS STILL PLASTERED WITH POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GRANTED...THE PATTERN DOES GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE BUT IT STILL
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT SINCE MODELS ARE NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF A SFC HIGH INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WELL
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME REMOVAL OF POPS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM AT KATY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH N/NWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS
AFTER 16Z OR 17Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN



000
FXUS63 KABR 020536 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1236 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER FORCING/ASCENT HAS BEEN TOO WEAK TO INITIATE STORMS THUS
FAR...AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK LLJ DOES DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...BUT ANY
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST
AREA. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

OVERALL A DRY PATTERN SHAPING UP IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES..ONCE WE GET PAST THIS EVENING. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS PROBABILITY OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING. CAMS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION
PLACEMENT THOUGH MOST DO GO AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AFTERNOON ANALYSIS..A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON WV IMAGERY IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST JUST CLIPPING THE CENTRAL SD/ND BORDER. THIS IS HELPING TO
GENERATE SOME ACCAS IN ND. THERE IS ALSO A BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF
MOBRIDGE..WITH NO SHEAR WEST OF THE LINE BUT AROUND 40 KTS EAST OF
THE LINE. A MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS FROM BISMARCK SOUTHEAST TO
ORTONVILLE. THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AVENUE FOR ANY DISCRETE
CELL FORMATION LATER TODAY SINCE LCLS ARE AROUND 1500. THIS WOULD
ALSO MEAN MOST STORMS WOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST OF ABERDEEN WHICH
GELS WELL WITH THE 4000 J/KG BULLS-EYE OF CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN BROWN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MT MAY HELP
INCREASE FORCING AS WELL IF IT MANAGES TO ARRIVE IN A TIMELY MANNER.

KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH 3Z.
DID NOT MENTION T+ BUT IF AND WHEN ANYTHING DOES FIRE CHANCES OF IT
GOING SEVERE ARE GOOD SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE. WITH GOOD
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD NOW SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THERMAL
PROGS...WHICH HIGHLIGHT A RELATIVELY COOLER REGIME COMPARED TO WHAT
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING IN RECENT WEEKS.
SUPERBLEND REVEALS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
AND THIS SEEMS OK GIVEN MODELS 850 MB TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE
FORECAST IS STILL PLASTERED WITH POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GRANTED...THE PATTERN DOES GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE BUT IT STILL
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT SINCE MODELS ARE NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF A SFC HIGH INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WELL
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME REMOVAL OF POPS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM AT KATY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH N/NWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS
AFTER 16Z OR 17Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN



000
FXUS63 KABR 020536 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1236 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER FORCING/ASCENT HAS BEEN TOO WEAK TO INITIATE STORMS THUS
FAR...AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK LLJ DOES DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...BUT ANY
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST
AREA. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

OVERALL A DRY PATTERN SHAPING UP IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES..ONCE WE GET PAST THIS EVENING. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS PROBABILITY OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING. CAMS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION
PLACEMENT THOUGH MOST DO GO AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AFTERNOON ANALYSIS..A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON WV IMAGERY IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST JUST CLIPPING THE CENTRAL SD/ND BORDER. THIS IS HELPING TO
GENERATE SOME ACCAS IN ND. THERE IS ALSO A BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF
MOBRIDGE..WITH NO SHEAR WEST OF THE LINE BUT AROUND 40 KTS EAST OF
THE LINE. A MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS FROM BISMARCK SOUTHEAST TO
ORTONVILLE. THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AVENUE FOR ANY DISCRETE
CELL FORMATION LATER TODAY SINCE LCLS ARE AROUND 1500. THIS WOULD
ALSO MEAN MOST STORMS WOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST OF ABERDEEN WHICH
GELS WELL WITH THE 4000 J/KG BULLS-EYE OF CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN BROWN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MT MAY HELP
INCREASE FORCING AS WELL IF IT MANAGES TO ARRIVE IN A TIMELY MANNER.

KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH 3Z.
DID NOT MENTION T+ BUT IF AND WHEN ANYTHING DOES FIRE CHANCES OF IT
GOING SEVERE ARE GOOD SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE. WITH GOOD
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD NOW SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THERMAL
PROGS...WHICH HIGHLIGHT A RELATIVELY COOLER REGIME COMPARED TO WHAT
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING IN RECENT WEEKS.
SUPERBLEND REVEALS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
AND THIS SEEMS OK GIVEN MODELS 850 MB TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE
FORECAST IS STILL PLASTERED WITH POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GRANTED...THE PATTERN DOES GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE BUT IT STILL
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT SINCE MODELS ARE NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF A SFC HIGH INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WELL
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME REMOVAL OF POPS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM AT KATY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH N/NWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS
AFTER 16Z OR 17Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN



000
FXUS63 KFSD 020506
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1206 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NEBRASKA CONVECTION HAS PUT A DAMPER ON BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
CONVECTION CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  A STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE AND A SLOW TO WANE LLJ HAS KEPT
CONVECTION ONGOING NEARLY ALL DAY TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A PERSISTENT
FEED OF MID-UPR LVL CLOUDS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 TODAY.

12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOT VERY MUCH HELP TODAY AT ALL...WITH ONLY MODELS
THAT SEEMED TO HAVE A CLUE BEING THE 00Z ARW/NMM WITH MORE RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR/HOPWRF CAPTURING THE TRENDS REASONABLY WELL.

THAT SAID...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING A WEAK SFC LOW EAST
OF BISMARCK AND SENDING AN ELONGATED WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS
NEAR THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  DEW POINTS
HAVE BEEN A STICKING POINT IN MODEL GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT
AT THIS POINT...SOLNS WITH LOWER FCST VALUES HAVE SEEMED TO DO
BETTER.  SOUTHWEST OF THIS WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...AND DEW POINTS ARE
NOW MIXING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. GIVEN THE REMNANT
CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT AOA 700MB...WE MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO
SUSTAIN ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP GIVEN THE POOR HEATING.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHICH SEEM TO BE ROOTED
ABOVE THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SHOULD SUFFICIENT MOISTURE POOL
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP
FURTHER AND BECOME SFC BASED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONGER
ACTIVITY MAY STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED...WITH BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IN EASTERN ND AND NW MN THIS EVENING AND ALONG A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN SD BEHIND THE SFC LOW. HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AND SVR WX RISKS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THESE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES.

BY SUNDAY...A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR.  TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL BUT NO RAIN
IS ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD. THE TONE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK IS FOR A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE..TEMPERATURES GOING
TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...AND PERIODIC HARD TO TIME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH A INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF
SHORT WAVES. THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
FAST AS EARLIER FIGURED AND HAVE HELD OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WILL TAKE TIME TO GET TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA WITH WEDNESDAY THE FIRST PERIOD WE WILL HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION
MENTION OVER ALL OF THE AREA. MAINLY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFICULTIES...POPS WILL BE CHANCE AT MOST. WILL GO WITH THE
EXTENDED GUIDANCE ON A MENTION EACH PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY ON FOR THE
SAME REASON AS ABOVE...TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PIN DOWN ANY DRY
PERIODS ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OR THREE SEEM LIKELY FOR THE AREA.

AS HINTED AT ABOVE...TEMPERATURES FOR THE COMING WEEK WILL BE
TRENDING TOWARD THE OPPOSITE OF OUR RECENT WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
WITH THE CHANGE TO OVERALL NEAR NORMAL NIGHTS AND BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM



000
FXUS63 KFSD 020506
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1206 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NEBRASKA CONVECTION HAS PUT A DAMPER ON BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
CONVECTION CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  A STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE AND A SLOW TO WANE LLJ HAS KEPT
CONVECTION ONGOING NEARLY ALL DAY TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A PERSISTENT
FEED OF MID-UPR LVL CLOUDS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 TODAY.

12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOT VERY MUCH HELP TODAY AT ALL...WITH ONLY MODELS
THAT SEEMED TO HAVE A CLUE BEING THE 00Z ARW/NMM WITH MORE RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR/HOPWRF CAPTURING THE TRENDS REASONABLY WELL.

THAT SAID...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING A WEAK SFC LOW EAST
OF BISMARCK AND SENDING AN ELONGATED WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS
NEAR THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  DEW POINTS
HAVE BEEN A STICKING POINT IN MODEL GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT
AT THIS POINT...SOLNS WITH LOWER FCST VALUES HAVE SEEMED TO DO
BETTER.  SOUTHWEST OF THIS WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...AND DEW POINTS ARE
NOW MIXING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. GIVEN THE REMNANT
CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT AOA 700MB...WE MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO
SUSTAIN ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP GIVEN THE POOR HEATING.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHICH SEEM TO BE ROOTED
ABOVE THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SHOULD SUFFICIENT MOISTURE POOL
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP
FURTHER AND BECOME SFC BASED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONGER
ACTIVITY MAY STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED...WITH BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IN EASTERN ND AND NW MN THIS EVENING AND ALONG A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN SD BEHIND THE SFC LOW. HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AND SVR WX RISKS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THESE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES.

BY SUNDAY...A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR.  TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL BUT NO RAIN
IS ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD. THE TONE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK IS FOR A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE..TEMPERATURES GOING
TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...AND PERIODIC HARD TO TIME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH A INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF
SHORT WAVES. THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
FAST AS EARLIER FIGURED AND HAVE HELD OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WILL TAKE TIME TO GET TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA WITH WEDNESDAY THE FIRST PERIOD WE WILL HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION
MENTION OVER ALL OF THE AREA. MAINLY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFICULTIES...POPS WILL BE CHANCE AT MOST. WILL GO WITH THE
EXTENDED GUIDANCE ON A MENTION EACH PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY ON FOR THE
SAME REASON AS ABOVE...TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PIN DOWN ANY DRY
PERIODS ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OR THREE SEEM LIKELY FOR THE AREA.

AS HINTED AT ABOVE...TEMPERATURES FOR THE COMING WEEK WILL BE
TRENDING TOWARD THE OPPOSITE OF OUR RECENT WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
WITH THE CHANGE TO OVERALL NEAR NORMAL NIGHTS AND BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 020506
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1206 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NEBRASKA CONVECTION HAS PUT A DAMPER ON BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
CONVECTION CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  A STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE AND A SLOW TO WANE LLJ HAS KEPT
CONVECTION ONGOING NEARLY ALL DAY TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A PERSISTENT
FEED OF MID-UPR LVL CLOUDS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 TODAY.

12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOT VERY MUCH HELP TODAY AT ALL...WITH ONLY MODELS
THAT SEEMED TO HAVE A CLUE BEING THE 00Z ARW/NMM WITH MORE RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR/HOPWRF CAPTURING THE TRENDS REASONABLY WELL.

THAT SAID...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING A WEAK SFC LOW EAST
OF BISMARCK AND SENDING AN ELONGATED WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS
NEAR THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  DEW POINTS
HAVE BEEN A STICKING POINT IN MODEL GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT
AT THIS POINT...SOLNS WITH LOWER FCST VALUES HAVE SEEMED TO DO
BETTER.  SOUTHWEST OF THIS WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...AND DEW POINTS ARE
NOW MIXING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. GIVEN THE REMNANT
CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT AOA 700MB...WE MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO
SUSTAIN ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP GIVEN THE POOR HEATING.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHICH SEEM TO BE ROOTED
ABOVE THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SHOULD SUFFICIENT MOISTURE POOL
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP
FURTHER AND BECOME SFC BASED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONGER
ACTIVITY MAY STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED...WITH BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IN EASTERN ND AND NW MN THIS EVENING AND ALONG A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN SD BEHIND THE SFC LOW. HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AND SVR WX RISKS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THESE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES.

BY SUNDAY...A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR.  TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL BUT NO RAIN
IS ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD. THE TONE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK IS FOR A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE..TEMPERATURES GOING
TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...AND PERIODIC HARD TO TIME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH A INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF
SHORT WAVES. THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
FAST AS EARLIER FIGURED AND HAVE HELD OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WILL TAKE TIME TO GET TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA WITH WEDNESDAY THE FIRST PERIOD WE WILL HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION
MENTION OVER ALL OF THE AREA. MAINLY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFICULTIES...POPS WILL BE CHANCE AT MOST. WILL GO WITH THE
EXTENDED GUIDANCE ON A MENTION EACH PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY ON FOR THE
SAME REASON AS ABOVE...TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PIN DOWN ANY DRY
PERIODS ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OR THREE SEEM LIKELY FOR THE AREA.

AS HINTED AT ABOVE...TEMPERATURES FOR THE COMING WEEK WILL BE
TRENDING TOWARD THE OPPOSITE OF OUR RECENT WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
WITH THE CHANGE TO OVERALL NEAR NORMAL NIGHTS AND BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 020506
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1206 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NEBRASKA CONVECTION HAS PUT A DAMPER ON BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
CONVECTION CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  A STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE AND A SLOW TO WANE LLJ HAS KEPT
CONVECTION ONGOING NEARLY ALL DAY TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A PERSISTENT
FEED OF MID-UPR LVL CLOUDS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 TODAY.

12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOT VERY MUCH HELP TODAY AT ALL...WITH ONLY MODELS
THAT SEEMED TO HAVE A CLUE BEING THE 00Z ARW/NMM WITH MORE RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR/HOPWRF CAPTURING THE TRENDS REASONABLY WELL.

THAT SAID...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING A WEAK SFC LOW EAST
OF BISMARCK AND SENDING AN ELONGATED WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS
NEAR THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  DEW POINTS
HAVE BEEN A STICKING POINT IN MODEL GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT
AT THIS POINT...SOLNS WITH LOWER FCST VALUES HAVE SEEMED TO DO
BETTER.  SOUTHWEST OF THIS WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...AND DEW POINTS ARE
NOW MIXING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. GIVEN THE REMNANT
CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT AOA 700MB...WE MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO
SUSTAIN ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP GIVEN THE POOR HEATING.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHICH SEEM TO BE ROOTED
ABOVE THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SHOULD SUFFICIENT MOISTURE POOL
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP
FURTHER AND BECOME SFC BASED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONGER
ACTIVITY MAY STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED...WITH BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IN EASTERN ND AND NW MN THIS EVENING AND ALONG A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN SD BEHIND THE SFC LOW. HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AND SVR WX RISKS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THESE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES.

BY SUNDAY...A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR.  TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL BUT NO RAIN
IS ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD. THE TONE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK IS FOR A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE..TEMPERATURES GOING
TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...AND PERIODIC HARD TO TIME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH A INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF
SHORT WAVES. THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
FAST AS EARLIER FIGURED AND HAVE HELD OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WILL TAKE TIME TO GET TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA WITH WEDNESDAY THE FIRST PERIOD WE WILL HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION
MENTION OVER ALL OF THE AREA. MAINLY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFICULTIES...POPS WILL BE CHANCE AT MOST. WILL GO WITH THE
EXTENDED GUIDANCE ON A MENTION EACH PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY ON FOR THE
SAME REASON AS ABOVE...TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PIN DOWN ANY DRY
PERIODS ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OR THREE SEEM LIKELY FOR THE AREA.

AS HINTED AT ABOVE...TEMPERATURES FOR THE COMING WEEK WILL BE
TRENDING TOWARD THE OPPOSITE OF OUR RECENT WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
WITH THE CHANGE TO OVERALL NEAR NORMAL NIGHTS AND BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM



000
FXUS63 KABR 020309
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1009 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER FORCING/ASCENT HAS BEEN TOO WEAK TO INITIATE STORMS THUS
FAR...AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK LLJ DOES DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...BUT ANY
MOISTURE CONVERGANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA.
UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

OVERALL A DRY PATTERN SHAPING UP IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES..ONCE WE GET PAST THIS EVENING. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS PROBABILITY OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING. CAMS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION
PLACEMENT THOUGH MOST DO GO AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AFTERNOON ANALYSIS..A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON WV IMAGERY IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST JUST CLIPPING THE CENTRAL SD/ND BORDER. THIS IS HELPING TO
GENERATE SOME ACCAS IN ND. THERE IS ALSO A BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF
MOBRIDGE..WITH NO SHEAR WEST OF THE LINE BUT AROUND 40 KTS EAST OF
THE LINE. A MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS FROM BISMARCK SOUTHEAST TO
ORTONVILLE. THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AVENUE FOR ANY DISCRETE
CELL FORMATION LATER TODAY SINCE LCLS ARE AROUND 1500. THIS WOULD
ALSO MEAN MOST STORMS WOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST OF ABERDEEN WHICH
GELS WELL WITH THE 4000 J/KG BULLS-EYE OF CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN BROWN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MT MAY HELP
INCREASE FORCING AS WELL IF IT MANAGES TO ARRIVE IN A TIMELY MANNER.

KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH 3Z.
DID NOT MENTION T+ BUT IF AND WHEN ANYTHING DOES FIRE CHANCES OF IT
GOING SEVERE ARE GOOD SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE. WITH GOOD
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD NOW SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THERMAL
PROGS...WHICH HIGHLIGHT A RELATIVELY COOLER REGIME COMPARED TO WHAT
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING IN RECENT WEEKS.
SUPERBLEND REVEALS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
AND THIS SEEMS OK GIVEN MODELS 850 MB TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE
FORECAST IS STILL PLASTERED WITH POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GRANTED...THE PATTERN DOES GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE BUT IT STILL
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT SINCE MODELS ARE NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF A SFC HIGH INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WELL
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME REMOVAL OF POPS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTMS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING IS WANING AS
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT TO INITIATE NEW
STORMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE W/NWLY THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT THAT WINDS MAY SIMPLY BECOME MORE VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BECOME BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...FOWLE



000
FXUS63 KABR 020309
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1009 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER FORCING/ASCENT HAS BEEN TOO WEAK TO INITIATE STORMS THUS
FAR...AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK LLJ DOES DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...BUT ANY
MOISTURE CONVERGANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA.
UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

OVERALL A DRY PATTERN SHAPING UP IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES..ONCE WE GET PAST THIS EVENING. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS PROBABILITY OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING. CAMS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION
PLACEMENT THOUGH MOST DO GO AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AFTERNOON ANALYSIS..A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON WV IMAGERY IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST JUST CLIPPING THE CENTRAL SD/ND BORDER. THIS IS HELPING TO
GENERATE SOME ACCAS IN ND. THERE IS ALSO A BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF
MOBRIDGE..WITH NO SHEAR WEST OF THE LINE BUT AROUND 40 KTS EAST OF
THE LINE. A MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS FROM BISMARCK SOUTHEAST TO
ORTONVILLE. THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AVENUE FOR ANY DISCRETE
CELL FORMATION LATER TODAY SINCE LCLS ARE AROUND 1500. THIS WOULD
ALSO MEAN MOST STORMS WOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST OF ABERDEEN WHICH
GELS WELL WITH THE 4000 J/KG BULLS-EYE OF CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN BROWN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MT MAY HELP
INCREASE FORCING AS WELL IF IT MANAGES TO ARRIVE IN A TIMELY MANNER.

KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH 3Z.
DID NOT MENTION T+ BUT IF AND WHEN ANYTHING DOES FIRE CHANCES OF IT
GOING SEVERE ARE GOOD SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE. WITH GOOD
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD NOW SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THERMAL
PROGS...WHICH HIGHLIGHT A RELATIVELY COOLER REGIME COMPARED TO WHAT
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING IN RECENT WEEKS.
SUPERBLEND REVEALS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
AND THIS SEEMS OK GIVEN MODELS 850 MB TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE
FORECAST IS STILL PLASTERED WITH POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GRANTED...THE PATTERN DOES GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE BUT IT STILL
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT SINCE MODELS ARE NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF A SFC HIGH INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WELL
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME REMOVAL OF POPS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTMS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING IS WANING AS
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT TO INITIATE NEW
STORMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE W/NWLY THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT THAT WINDS MAY SIMPLY BECOME MORE VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BECOME BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...FOWLE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 020235
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
835 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER WESTERN US WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO WY. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. SOME HINTS OF
WEAK WAVES ON WATER VAPOR...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE
STORMS. 00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG CAP WITH DRY LAYER JUST OF
THE SURFACE...SO STORMS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS ACROSS WESTERN ND-NORTHWESTERN SD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...
BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HOT AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEK. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER TROF
LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. EAST-SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...
WHILE SURGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH THE TROF. MAY BE A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER TROF TRACKS ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 835 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLD TSRA MAY DVLP OVR BLK HLS INTO SOUTH CNTRL SD...
OTHERWISE...SKIES WL BE CLR. NW WNDS WL DCRS THIS EVEN...THEN
INCRS AGAIN SUN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...55
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...55



000
FXUS63 KUNR 020235
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
835 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER WESTERN US WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO WY. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. SOME HINTS OF
WEAK WAVES ON WATER VAPOR...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE
STORMS. 00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG CAP WITH DRY LAYER JUST OF
THE SURFACE...SO STORMS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS ACROSS WESTERN ND-NORTHWESTERN SD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...
BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HOT AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEK. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER TROF
LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. EAST-SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...
WHILE SURGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH THE TROF. MAY BE A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER TROF TRACKS ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 835 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLD TSRA MAY DVLP OVR BLK HLS INTO SOUTH CNTRL SD...
OTHERWISE...SKIES WL BE CLR. NW WNDS WL DCRS THIS EVEN...THEN
INCRS AGAIN SUN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...55
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...55



000
FXUS63 KUNR 020235
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
835 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER WESTERN US WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO WY. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. SOME HINTS OF
WEAK WAVES ON WATER VAPOR...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE
STORMS. 00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG CAP WITH DRY LAYER JUST OF
THE SURFACE...SO STORMS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS ACROSS WESTERN ND-NORTHWESTERN SD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...
BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HOT AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEK. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER TROF
LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. EAST-SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...
WHILE SURGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH THE TROF. MAY BE A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER TROF TRACKS ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 835 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLD TSRA MAY DVLP OVR BLK HLS INTO SOUTH CNTRL SD...
OTHERWISE...SKIES WL BE CLR. NW WNDS WL DCRS THIS EVEN...THEN
INCRS AGAIN SUN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...55
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...55



000
FXUS63 KUNR 020235
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
835 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER WESTERN US WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO WY. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. SOME HINTS OF
WEAK WAVES ON WATER VAPOR...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE
STORMS. 00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG CAP WITH DRY LAYER JUST OF
THE SURFACE...SO STORMS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS ACROSS WESTERN ND-NORTHWESTERN SD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...
BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HOT AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEK. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER TROF
LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. EAST-SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...
WHILE SURGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH THE TROF. MAY BE A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER TROF TRACKS ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 835 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLD TSRA MAY DVLP OVR BLK HLS INTO SOUTH CNTRL SD...
OTHERWISE...SKIES WL BE CLR. NW WNDS WL DCRS THIS EVEN...THEN
INCRS AGAIN SUN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...55
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...55



000
FXUS63 KABR 020101
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
801 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460 CONTINUES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE 00Z KABR SOUNDING DID SHOW A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
/MLCAPE ~2600 J/KG/ AND RATHER WEAK CINH /-14 J/KG/. HOWEVER...IT
IS APPEARING LESS AND LESS LIKELY THAT NEW CONVECTION WILL
INITIATE DUE TO VERY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND THE FURTHER ONSET TO
DIURNAL PBL STABILIZATION. ONE STORM OVER HAND COUNTY DID PRODUCE
SEVERAL INSTANCES OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT HAS LONG SINCE DIMINISHED. PROBABLY THE ONLY
HOPE FOR NEW CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS FOR LLJ INDUCED ASCENT...BUT
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT IMPACTS FROM LLJ WILL
LIKELY BE WELL EAST OF THIS AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...

UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

OVERALL A DRY PATTERN SHAPING UP IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES..ONCE WE GET PAST THIS EVENING. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS PROBABILITY OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING. CAMS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION
PLACEMENT THOUGH MOST DO GO AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AFTERNOON ANALYSIS..A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON WV IMAGERY IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST JUST CLIPPING THE CENTRAL SD/ND BORDER. THIS IS HELPING TO
GENERATE SOME ACCAS IN ND. THERE IS ALSO A BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF
MOBRIDGE..WITH NO SHEAR WEST OF THE LINE BUT AROUND 40 KTS EAST OF
THE LINE. A MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS FROM BISMARCK SOUTHEAST TO
ORTONVILLE. THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AVENUE FOR ANY DISCRETE
CELL FORMATION LATER TODAY SINCE LCLS ARE AROUND 1500. THIS WOULD
ALSO MEAN MOST STORMS WOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST OF ABERDEEN WHICH
GELS WELL WITH THE 4000 J/KG BULLS-EYE OF CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN BROWN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MT MAY HELP
INCREASE FORCING AS WELL IF IT MANAGES TO ARRIVE IN A TIMELY MANNER.

KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH 3Z.
DID NOT MENTION T+ BUT IF AND WHEN ANYTHING DOES FIRE CHANCES OF IT
GOING SEVERE ARE GOOD SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE. WITH GOOD
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD NOW SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THERMAL
PROGS...WHICH HIGHLIGHT A RELATIVELY COOLER REGIME COMPARED TO WHAT
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING IN RECENT WEEKS.
SUPERBLEND REVEALS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
AND THIS SEEMS OK GIVEN MODELS 850 MB TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE
FORECAST IS STILL PLASTERED WITH POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GRANTED...THE PATTERN DOES GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE BUT IT STILL
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT SINCE MODELS ARE NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF A SFC HIGH INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WELL
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME REMOVAL OF POPS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTMS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING IS WANING AS
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT TO INITIATE NEW
STORMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE W/NWLY THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT THAT WINDS MAY SIMPLY BECOME MORE VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BECOME BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...FOWLE



000
FXUS63 KABR 020101
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
801 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460 CONTINUES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE 00Z KABR SOUNDING DID SHOW A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
/MLCAPE ~2600 J/KG/ AND RATHER WEAK CINH /-14 J/KG/. HOWEVER...IT
IS APPEARING LESS AND LESS LIKELY THAT NEW CONVECTION WILL
INITIATE DUE TO VERY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND THE FURTHER ONSET TO
DIURNAL PBL STABILIZATION. ONE STORM OVER HAND COUNTY DID PRODUCE
SEVERAL INSTANCES OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT HAS LONG SINCE DIMINISHED. PROBABLY THE ONLY
HOPE FOR NEW CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS FOR LLJ INDUCED ASCENT...BUT
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT IMPACTS FROM LLJ WILL
LIKELY BE WELL EAST OF THIS AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...

UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

OVERALL A DRY PATTERN SHAPING UP IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES..ONCE WE GET PAST THIS EVENING. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS PROBABILITY OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING. CAMS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION
PLACEMENT THOUGH MOST DO GO AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AFTERNOON ANALYSIS..A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON WV IMAGERY IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST JUST CLIPPING THE CENTRAL SD/ND BORDER. THIS IS HELPING TO
GENERATE SOME ACCAS IN ND. THERE IS ALSO A BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF
MOBRIDGE..WITH NO SHEAR WEST OF THE LINE BUT AROUND 40 KTS EAST OF
THE LINE. A MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS FROM BISMARCK SOUTHEAST TO
ORTONVILLE. THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AVENUE FOR ANY DISCRETE
CELL FORMATION LATER TODAY SINCE LCLS ARE AROUND 1500. THIS WOULD
ALSO MEAN MOST STORMS WOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST OF ABERDEEN WHICH
GELS WELL WITH THE 4000 J/KG BULLS-EYE OF CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN BROWN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MT MAY HELP
INCREASE FORCING AS WELL IF IT MANAGES TO ARRIVE IN A TIMELY MANNER.

KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH 3Z.
DID NOT MENTION T+ BUT IF AND WHEN ANYTHING DOES FIRE CHANCES OF IT
GOING SEVERE ARE GOOD SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE. WITH GOOD
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD NOW SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THERMAL
PROGS...WHICH HIGHLIGHT A RELATIVELY COOLER REGIME COMPARED TO WHAT
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING IN RECENT WEEKS.
SUPERBLEND REVEALS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
AND THIS SEEMS OK GIVEN MODELS 850 MB TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE
FORECAST IS STILL PLASTERED WITH POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GRANTED...THE PATTERN DOES GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE BUT IT STILL
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT SINCE MODELS ARE NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF A SFC HIGH INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WELL
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME REMOVAL OF POPS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTMS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING IS WANING AS
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT TO INITIATE NEW
STORMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE W/NWLY THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT THAT WINDS MAY SIMPLY BECOME MORE VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BECOME BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...FOWLE




000
FXUS63 KABR 020101
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
801 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460 CONTINUES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE 00Z KABR SOUNDING DID SHOW A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
/MLCAPE ~2600 J/KG/ AND RATHER WEAK CINH /-14 J/KG/. HOWEVER...IT
IS APPEARING LESS AND LESS LIKELY THAT NEW CONVECTION WILL
INITIATE DUE TO VERY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND THE FURTHER ONSET TO
DIURNAL PBL STABILIZATION. ONE STORM OVER HAND COUNTY DID PRODUCE
SEVERAL INSTANCES OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT HAS LONG SINCE DIMINISHED. PROBABLY THE ONLY
HOPE FOR NEW CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS FOR LLJ INDUCED ASCENT...BUT
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT IMPACTS FROM LLJ WILL
LIKELY BE WELL EAST OF THIS AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...

UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

OVERALL A DRY PATTERN SHAPING UP IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES..ONCE WE GET PAST THIS EVENING. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS PROBABILITY OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING. CAMS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION
PLACEMENT THOUGH MOST DO GO AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AFTERNOON ANALYSIS..A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON WV IMAGERY IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST JUST CLIPPING THE CENTRAL SD/ND BORDER. THIS IS HELPING TO
GENERATE SOME ACCAS IN ND. THERE IS ALSO A BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF
MOBRIDGE..WITH NO SHEAR WEST OF THE LINE BUT AROUND 40 KTS EAST OF
THE LINE. A MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS FROM BISMARCK SOUTHEAST TO
ORTONVILLE. THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AVENUE FOR ANY DISCRETE
CELL FORMATION LATER TODAY SINCE LCLS ARE AROUND 1500. THIS WOULD
ALSO MEAN MOST STORMS WOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST OF ABERDEEN WHICH
GELS WELL WITH THE 4000 J/KG BULLS-EYE OF CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN BROWN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MT MAY HELP
INCREASE FORCING AS WELL IF IT MANAGES TO ARRIVE IN A TIMELY MANNER.

KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH 3Z.
DID NOT MENTION T+ BUT IF AND WHEN ANYTHING DOES FIRE CHANCES OF IT
GOING SEVERE ARE GOOD SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE. WITH GOOD
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD NOW SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THERMAL
PROGS...WHICH HIGHLIGHT A RELATIVELY COOLER REGIME COMPARED TO WHAT
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING IN RECENT WEEKS.
SUPERBLEND REVEALS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
AND THIS SEEMS OK GIVEN MODELS 850 MB TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE
FORECAST IS STILL PLASTERED WITH POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GRANTED...THE PATTERN DOES GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE BUT IT STILL
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT SINCE MODELS ARE NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF A SFC HIGH INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WELL
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME REMOVAL OF POPS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTMS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING IS WANING AS
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT TO INITIATE NEW
STORMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE W/NWLY THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT THAT WINDS MAY SIMPLY BECOME MORE VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BECOME BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...FOWLE




000
FXUS63 KABR 020101
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
801 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460 CONTINUES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE 00Z KABR SOUNDING DID SHOW A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
/MLCAPE ~2600 J/KG/ AND RATHER WEAK CINH /-14 J/KG/. HOWEVER...IT
IS APPEARING LESS AND LESS LIKELY THAT NEW CONVECTION WILL
INITIATE DUE TO VERY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND THE FURTHER ONSET TO
DIURNAL PBL STABILIZATION. ONE STORM OVER HAND COUNTY DID PRODUCE
SEVERAL INSTANCES OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT HAS LONG SINCE DIMINISHED. PROBABLY THE ONLY
HOPE FOR NEW CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS FOR LLJ INDUCED ASCENT...BUT
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT IMPACTS FROM LLJ WILL
LIKELY BE WELL EAST OF THIS AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...

UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

OVERALL A DRY PATTERN SHAPING UP IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES..ONCE WE GET PAST THIS EVENING. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS PROBABILITY OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING. CAMS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION
PLACEMENT THOUGH MOST DO GO AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AFTERNOON ANALYSIS..A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON WV IMAGERY IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST JUST CLIPPING THE CENTRAL SD/ND BORDER. THIS IS HELPING TO
GENERATE SOME ACCAS IN ND. THERE IS ALSO A BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF
MOBRIDGE..WITH NO SHEAR WEST OF THE LINE BUT AROUND 40 KTS EAST OF
THE LINE. A MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS FROM BISMARCK SOUTHEAST TO
ORTONVILLE. THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AVENUE FOR ANY DISCRETE
CELL FORMATION LATER TODAY SINCE LCLS ARE AROUND 1500. THIS WOULD
ALSO MEAN MOST STORMS WOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST OF ABERDEEN WHICH
GELS WELL WITH THE 4000 J/KG BULLS-EYE OF CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN BROWN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MT MAY HELP
INCREASE FORCING AS WELL IF IT MANAGES TO ARRIVE IN A TIMELY MANNER.

KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH 3Z.
DID NOT MENTION T+ BUT IF AND WHEN ANYTHING DOES FIRE CHANCES OF IT
GOING SEVERE ARE GOOD SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE. WITH GOOD
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD NOW SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THERMAL
PROGS...WHICH HIGHLIGHT A RELATIVELY COOLER REGIME COMPARED TO WHAT
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING IN RECENT WEEKS.
SUPERBLEND REVEALS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
AND THIS SEEMS OK GIVEN MODELS 850 MB TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE
FORECAST IS STILL PLASTERED WITH POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GRANTED...THE PATTERN DOES GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE BUT IT STILL
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT SINCE MODELS ARE NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF A SFC HIGH INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WELL
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME REMOVAL OF POPS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTMS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING IS WANING AS
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT TO INITIATE NEW
STORMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE W/NWLY THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT THAT WINDS MAY SIMPLY BECOME MORE VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BECOME BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...FOWLE



000
FXUS63 KUNR 012337
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
537 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT NOW
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST MT TO EASTERN SD...WITH A SURFACE TROF
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN
THE 90S NOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN THE HILLS. WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE
CWA. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL
DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. A STRONG STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROF OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

HOT AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AS RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS. NORTHERLY
WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEK. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER TROF
LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. EAST-SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...
WHILE SURGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH THE TROF. MAY BE A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER TROF TRACKS ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLD TSRA MAY DVLP OVR BLK HLS INTO SOUTH CNTRL SD...
OTHERWISE...SKIES WL BE CLR. NW WNDS WL DCRS THIS EVEN...THEN
INCRS AGAIN SUN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...55




000
FXUS63 KUNR 012337
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
537 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT NOW
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST MT TO EASTERN SD...WITH A SURFACE TROF
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN
THE 90S NOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN THE HILLS. WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE
CWA. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL
DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. A STRONG STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROF OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

HOT AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AS RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS. NORTHERLY
WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEK. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER TROF
LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. EAST-SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...
WHILE SURGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH THE TROF. MAY BE A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER TROF TRACKS ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLD TSRA MAY DVLP OVR BLK HLS INTO SOUTH CNTRL SD...
OTHERWISE...SKIES WL BE CLR. NW WNDS WL DCRS THIS EVEN...THEN
INCRS AGAIN SUN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...55



000
FXUS63 KUNR 012337
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
537 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT NOW
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST MT TO EASTERN SD...WITH A SURFACE TROF
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN
THE 90S NOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN THE HILLS. WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE
CWA. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL
DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. A STRONG STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROF OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

HOT AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AS RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS. NORTHERLY
WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEK. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER TROF
LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. EAST-SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...
WHILE SURGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH THE TROF. MAY BE A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER TROF TRACKS ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLD TSRA MAY DVLP OVR BLK HLS INTO SOUTH CNTRL SD...
OTHERWISE...SKIES WL BE CLR. NW WNDS WL DCRS THIS EVEN...THEN
INCRS AGAIN SUN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...55




000
FXUS63 KUNR 012337
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
537 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT NOW
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST MT TO EASTERN SD...WITH A SURFACE TROF
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN
THE 90S NOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN THE HILLS. WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE
CWA. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL
DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. A STRONG STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROF OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

HOT AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AS RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS. NORTHERLY
WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEK. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER TROF
LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. EAST-SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...
WHILE SURGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH THE TROF. MAY BE A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER TROF TRACKS ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLD TSRA MAY DVLP OVR BLK HLS INTO SOUTH CNTRL SD...
OTHERWISE...SKIES WL BE CLR. NW WNDS WL DCRS THIS EVEN...THEN
INCRS AGAIN SUN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...55



000
FXUS63 KFSD 012330
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NEBRASKA CONVECTION HAS PUT A DAMPER ON BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
CONVECTION CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  A STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE AND A SLOW TO WANE LLJ HAS KEPT
CONVECTION ONGOING NEARLY ALL DAY TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A PERSISTENT
FEED OF MID-UPR LVL CLOUDS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 TODAY.

12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOT VERY MUCH HELP TODAY AT ALL...WITH ONLY MODELS
THAT SEEMED TO HAVE A CLUE BEING THE 00Z ARW/NMM WITH MORE RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR/HOPWRF CAPTURING THE TRENDS REASONABLY WELL.

THAT SAID...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING A WEAK SFC LOW EAST
OF BISMARCK AND SENDING AN ELONGATED WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS
NEAR THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  DEW POINTS
HAVE BEEN A STICKING POINT IN MODEL GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT
AT THIS POINT...SOLNS WITH LOWER FCST VALUES HAVE SEEMED TO DO
BETTER.  SOUTHWEST OF THIS WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...AND DEW POINTS ARE
NOW MIXING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. GIVEN THE REMNANT
CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT AOA 700MB...WE MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO
SUSTAIN ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP GIVEN THE POOR HEATING.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHICH SEEM TO BE ROOTED
ABOVE THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SHOULD SUFFICIENT MOISTURE POOL
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP
FURTHER AND BECOME SFC BASED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONGER
ACTIVITY MAY STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED...WITH BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IN EASTERN ND AND NW MN THIS EVENING AND ALONG A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN SD BEHIND THE SFC LOW. HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AND SVR WX RISKS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THESE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES.

BY SUNDAY...A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR.  TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL BUT NO RAIN
IS ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD. THE TONE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK IS FOR A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE..TEMPERATURES GOING
TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...AND PERIODIC HARD TO TIME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH A INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF
SHORT WAVES. THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
FAST AS EARLIER FIGURED AND HAVE HELD OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WILL TAKE TIME TO GET TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA WITH WEDNESDAY THE FIRST PERIOD WE WILL HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION
MENTION OVER ALL OF THE AREA. MAINLY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFICULTIES...POPS WILL BE CHANCE AT MOST. WILL GO WITH THE
EXTENDED GUIDANCE ON A MENTION EACH PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY ON FOR THE
SAME REASON AS ABOVE...TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PIN DOWN ANY DRY
PERIODS ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OR THREE SEEM LIKELY FOR THE AREA.

AS HINTED AT ABOVE...TEMPERATURES FOR THE COMING WEEK WILL BE
TRENDING TOWARD THE OPPOSITE OF OUR RECENT WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
WITH THE CHANGE TO OVERALL NEAR NORMAL NIGHTS AND BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN AND
NORTHWEST IA AFTER 06Z. DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE OF ANY
STORMS...OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH WILL
BE WATCHING KHON AREA CLOSELY AS POTENTIAL APPEARS GREATER THERE
THROUGH THE FIRST 2-3 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD THAN ANY OTHER
LOCATION. ASIDE FROM CONVECTIVE THREAT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE.

LINGERING WIND GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
SUNSET. INCREASING SOUTHWEST-WEST LOW LEVEL JET ABOVE 800FT COULD
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFTER 02/06Z. WHILE THIS
COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KFSD TAF LOCATION...APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY
EAST/NORTHEAST OF KFSD AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE KFSD TAF AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 012330
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NEBRASKA CONVECTION HAS PUT A DAMPER ON BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
CONVECTION CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  A STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE AND A SLOW TO WANE LLJ HAS KEPT
CONVECTION ONGOING NEARLY ALL DAY TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A PERSISTENT
FEED OF MID-UPR LVL CLOUDS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 TODAY.

12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOT VERY MUCH HELP TODAY AT ALL...WITH ONLY MODELS
THAT SEEMED TO HAVE A CLUE BEING THE 00Z ARW/NMM WITH MORE RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR/HOPWRF CAPTURING THE TRENDS REASONABLY WELL.

THAT SAID...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING A WEAK SFC LOW EAST
OF BISMARCK AND SENDING AN ELONGATED WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS
NEAR THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  DEW POINTS
HAVE BEEN A STICKING POINT IN MODEL GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT
AT THIS POINT...SOLNS WITH LOWER FCST VALUES HAVE SEEMED TO DO
BETTER.  SOUTHWEST OF THIS WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...AND DEW POINTS ARE
NOW MIXING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. GIVEN THE REMNANT
CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT AOA 700MB...WE MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO
SUSTAIN ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP GIVEN THE POOR HEATING.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHICH SEEM TO BE ROOTED
ABOVE THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SHOULD SUFFICIENT MOISTURE POOL
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP
FURTHER AND BECOME SFC BASED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONGER
ACTIVITY MAY STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED...WITH BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IN EASTERN ND AND NW MN THIS EVENING AND ALONG A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN SD BEHIND THE SFC LOW. HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AND SVR WX RISKS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THESE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES.

BY SUNDAY...A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR.  TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL BUT NO RAIN
IS ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD. THE TONE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK IS FOR A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE..TEMPERATURES GOING
TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...AND PERIODIC HARD TO TIME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH A INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF
SHORT WAVES. THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
FAST AS EARLIER FIGURED AND HAVE HELD OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WILL TAKE TIME TO GET TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA WITH WEDNESDAY THE FIRST PERIOD WE WILL HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION
MENTION OVER ALL OF THE AREA. MAINLY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFICULTIES...POPS WILL BE CHANCE AT MOST. WILL GO WITH THE
EXTENDED GUIDANCE ON A MENTION EACH PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY ON FOR THE
SAME REASON AS ABOVE...TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PIN DOWN ANY DRY
PERIODS ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OR THREE SEEM LIKELY FOR THE AREA.

AS HINTED AT ABOVE...TEMPERATURES FOR THE COMING WEEK WILL BE
TRENDING TOWARD THE OPPOSITE OF OUR RECENT WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
WITH THE CHANGE TO OVERALL NEAR NORMAL NIGHTS AND BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN AND
NORTHWEST IA AFTER 06Z. DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE OF ANY
STORMS...OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH WILL
BE WATCHING KHON AREA CLOSELY AS POTENTIAL APPEARS GREATER THERE
THROUGH THE FIRST 2-3 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD THAN ANY OTHER
LOCATION. ASIDE FROM CONVECTIVE THREAT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE.

LINGERING WIND GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
SUNSET. INCREASING SOUTHWEST-WEST LOW LEVEL JET ABOVE 800FT COULD
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFTER 02/06Z. WHILE THIS
COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KFSD TAF LOCATION...APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY
EAST/NORTHEAST OF KFSD AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE KFSD TAF AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH



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