Home > Products > State Listing > South Dakota Data
Latest:
 AFDUNR |  AFDABR |  AFDFSD |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KFSD 200504
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1104 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING ONLY IN OUR FAR WEST ACROSS BRULE AND
GREGORY COUNTIES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN THE STRATUS DECK INTO
TOMORROW. COULD SEE A BIT OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT A MAJORITY OF US WILL STAY LOCKED IN
THE CLOUDS. WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AS
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE DENSE FOG FORM WEST OF
INTERSTATE 29. SO ADDED FOG INTO THE GRIDS...HITTING IT HARDER TO
THE WEST. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT AND THUS RAISED LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES. MOST
PLACES WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30...WITH OUR
CLEAR LOCATIONS OUT WEST THE ONLY LOCATIONS ABLE TO RADIATE INTO THE
TEENS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY RAISE A FEW DEGREES FROM THE MORNING
LOWS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S EXPECTED.

UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. DECENT DRY LAYER
SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS CENTERED AROUND 800 MB. SO WHILE WE WILL
PROBABLY SEE SOME VIRGA...THINK IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TO
REACH THE GROUND. BEST CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLY REACHING
THE GROUND IS BEFORE MIDNIGHT..GENERALLY ALONG OR NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. OTHER QUESTION IS FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL IN THE
STRATUS. DID NOT SEE ANY LAST NIGHT...AND TONIGHTS SOUNDINGS ARE
SIMILAR. SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE
IT OUT THOUGH...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. AT THIS TIME FEEL
THAT EVEN IF WE GOT SOME IT WOULD BE TOO LIGHT TO CAUSE ANY REAL
ISSUES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP MILD BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS. STILL LOOKING LIKE AN EVENT WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION BUT HOPEFULLY AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE RELATIVE
LIGHT SIDE. BUT IF THINGS COME TOGETHER LIKE THEY ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ANY TRAVEL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED. COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE IN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES NOT TOO COLD BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SO
ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL. STILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES AND EXPECTED
TO EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS NOT VERY
AGREEABLE SO CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH AT THIS POINT BUT
UNFORTUNATELY COULD MAKE FOR SOME POTENTIALLY TRICKY DRIVING
CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH DECEMBER 26TH. THE 12Z ECMWF IS PARTICULARLY
INTERESTING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGELY STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF IFR TO LOWER END MVFR...
WITH SOME SLIGHT LOWERING IN THE EARLY-MID MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. PRIMARY
MODELS DO HINT AT STRATUS BREAKING UP MORE THAN INDICATED DUE TO
SOME MODEST MIXING WITHIN THE STRATUS LAYER. TOUGH CALL BUT OPTED TO
HOLD ONTO THE STRATUS FOR NOW. WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS DECK LIKELY
TO SEE LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG THROUGH MID-MORNING THAN THOSE
AREAS BENEATH THE STRATUS...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF
LOCATIONS AS STRATUS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KHON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 200504
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1104 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING ONLY IN OUR FAR WEST ACROSS BRULE AND
GREGORY COUNTIES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN THE STRATUS DECK INTO
TOMORROW. COULD SEE A BIT OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT A MAJORITY OF US WILL STAY LOCKED IN
THE CLOUDS. WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AS
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE DENSE FOG FORM WEST OF
INTERSTATE 29. SO ADDED FOG INTO THE GRIDS...HITTING IT HARDER TO
THE WEST. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT AND THUS RAISED LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES. MOST
PLACES WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30...WITH OUR
CLEAR LOCATIONS OUT WEST THE ONLY LOCATIONS ABLE TO RADIATE INTO THE
TEENS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY RAISE A FEW DEGREES FROM THE MORNING
LOWS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S EXPECTED.

UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. DECENT DRY LAYER
SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS CENTERED AROUND 800 MB. SO WHILE WE WILL
PROBABLY SEE SOME VIRGA...THINK IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TO
REACH THE GROUND. BEST CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLY REACHING
THE GROUND IS BEFORE MIDNIGHT..GENERALLY ALONG OR NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. OTHER QUESTION IS FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL IN THE
STRATUS. DID NOT SEE ANY LAST NIGHT...AND TONIGHTS SOUNDINGS ARE
SIMILAR. SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE
IT OUT THOUGH...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. AT THIS TIME FEEL
THAT EVEN IF WE GOT SOME IT WOULD BE TOO LIGHT TO CAUSE ANY REAL
ISSUES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP MILD BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS. STILL LOOKING LIKE AN EVENT WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION BUT HOPEFULLY AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE RELATIVE
LIGHT SIDE. BUT IF THINGS COME TOGETHER LIKE THEY ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ANY TRAVEL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED. COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE IN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES NOT TOO COLD BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SO
ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL. STILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES AND EXPECTED
TO EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS NOT VERY
AGREEABLE SO CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH AT THIS POINT BUT
UNFORTUNATELY COULD MAKE FOR SOME POTENTIALLY TRICKY DRIVING
CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH DECEMBER 26TH. THE 12Z ECMWF IS PARTICULARLY
INTERESTING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGELY STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF IFR TO LOWER END MVFR...
WITH SOME SLIGHT LOWERING IN THE EARLY-MID MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. PRIMARY
MODELS DO HINT AT STRATUS BREAKING UP MORE THAN INDICATED DUE TO
SOME MODEST MIXING WITHIN THE STRATUS LAYER. TOUGH CALL BUT OPTED TO
HOLD ONTO THE STRATUS FOR NOW. WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS DECK LIKELY
TO SEE LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG THROUGH MID-MORNING THAN THOSE
AREAS BENEATH THE STRATUS...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF
LOCATIONS AS STRATUS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KHON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JH



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KUNR 200448
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
948 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL SD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES... WITH
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST.
SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS
OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS. KUDX RADAR EVEN
HAS SHOWN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER WEST CENTRAL SD. TEMPS ARE
MILD...UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. WINDS ARE MOSTLY FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

MILDER WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST FLATTENS OUT AS IT MOVES OVER THE PLAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WEAK AND QUICK MOVING
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. CLOUDS AND SOME AREAS OF LIGHT MIXED PCPN ARE POSSIBLE AS IT
MOVES THROUGH.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS THE
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS AREA...AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST
SD AS CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG DOES LOOK POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS AS LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MINIMAL...SO WILL KEEP
CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MIX OF PCPN IF ANY DOES FALL...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING
BEHIND IT. MILD TEMPS WILL PERSIST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
30S AND 40S AGAIN...AS WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 20S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LARGE SCALE FEATURES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHOWING A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST AND A BROAD
TROUGH/UPPER LOW CLOSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS
AN OPEN WAVE AS THE TROUGH CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE 12Z
GFS IS NOW SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...DROPPING SOUTHWARD TO OVER
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY EVENING...COMING BACK INTO LINE
WITH THE ECMWF AT THAT POINT. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. POPS WOULD BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY WITH COOLER
AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...WITH SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT THE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...WHERE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL 0-2KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW. EXTENDED MODELS SEEM TO BE TRANSITIONING
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. WHERE THE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE LATEST GFS IS SHOWING A MUCH DIFFERENT PATTERN WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT LATER
RUNS TO COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 946 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SN WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...JOHNSON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 200448
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
948 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL SD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES... WITH
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST.
SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS
OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS. KUDX RADAR EVEN
HAS SHOWN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER WEST CENTRAL SD. TEMPS ARE
MILD...UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. WINDS ARE MOSTLY FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

MILDER WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST FLATTENS OUT AS IT MOVES OVER THE PLAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WEAK AND QUICK MOVING
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. CLOUDS AND SOME AREAS OF LIGHT MIXED PCPN ARE POSSIBLE AS IT
MOVES THROUGH.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS THE
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS AREA...AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST
SD AS CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG DOES LOOK POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS AS LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MINIMAL...SO WILL KEEP
CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MIX OF PCPN IF ANY DOES FALL...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING
BEHIND IT. MILD TEMPS WILL PERSIST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
30S AND 40S AGAIN...AS WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 20S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LARGE SCALE FEATURES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHOWING A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST AND A BROAD
TROUGH/UPPER LOW CLOSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS
AN OPEN WAVE AS THE TROUGH CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE 12Z
GFS IS NOW SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...DROPPING SOUTHWARD TO OVER
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY EVENING...COMING BACK INTO LINE
WITH THE ECMWF AT THAT POINT. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. POPS WOULD BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY WITH COOLER
AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...WITH SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT THE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...WHERE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL 0-2KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW. EXTENDED MODELS SEEM TO BE TRANSITIONING
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. WHERE THE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE LATEST GFS IS SHOWING A MUCH DIFFERENT PATTERN WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT LATER
RUNS TO COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 946 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SN WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...JOHNSON






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KABR 200234 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
834 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH FOG/STRATUS NOW SHOWING UP ON FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGERY
PUSHING BACK TO THE WEST SOME...HAVE REDRAWN THE WARM/COLD
DIVIDING LINE IN MIN T GRID A BIT FURTHER WEST SUCH THAT THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY MIN TEMPS ARE NOW A BIT WARMER /GENERALLY 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER/ THAN INHERITED ONES. UPDATES ARE OUT.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

CURRENTLY ON RADAR THERE IS AN AREA OF FLURRIES MOVING ACROSS FAR
NE SD/WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL EXIT BY 00Z.

MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE STRATUS/FOG AND ITS EFFECTS ON
TEMPERATURES. STRATUS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ON A NORTH SOUTH LINE FROM
EDMUNDS COUNTY TO EASTERN HAND COUNTY EASTWARD. 925 MB RH ON
RUC/NAM/GFS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL PUNCH AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS
THE JAMES VALLEY BY 6Z AND THEN ACROSS NORTHEAST SD..WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WATERTOWN..BY 18Z SATURDAY. AS THERE WAS THIS
MORNING..AREAS ON THE CLEAR SIDE OF THE STRATUS LINE WILL STILL
LIKELY SEE SOME FOG IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS
SNOW ON THE GROUND. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION
WHERE THE STRATUS LINGERS TONIGHT..PERHAPS ONLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES SPREAD FROM THE HIGHS TODAY. AREAS WEST WILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS TO AROUND 20.

ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PUSH OF WEAK WAA IN THE MORNING
BEFORE A SFC TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE
EC/NAM/RUC DRY SIDE AND KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP. THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A SHORTWAVE WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER..BUT IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY WILL CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES
AIM AT THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA MAY BEGIN AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FZRA WITH WARMER AIR IN
PLACE WITH AND AHEAD OF THE LOW. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALL
PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN CAA.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND THE STORM SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM...BUT STILL MANY
FINER DETAILS TO WORK OUT. 12Z GFS HAS SHIFTED THE QPF AXIS
FURTHER WEST RIGHT OVER THE JAMES VALLEY AND IS MORE BULLISH ON
SNOW AMOUNTS. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE 12Z EC HAS ALSO SHIFTED
WEST TOWARDS THE JAMES VALLEY...A CHANGE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS.
ALTHOUGH...IT IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH WITH QPF...BUT STILL GIVES THE
AREA A FEW INCHES OF SNOW NONETHELESS. STILL DO NOT HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS WHOLE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY WHEN
MODELS SEEM TO STRUGGLE WITH LOWS THAT DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN CANADA THEN INTENSIFY OVER THE UPPER PLAINS AND
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OR NORTHEAST. HAVE BEGUN TO RAMP THINGS UP A
BIT BY INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED QPF/SNOW ACCUMS A BIT. SUPERBLEND WINDS SEEMED
RATHER LOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY GIVEN THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. HAVE THEREFORE ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS.

MODELS SUGGESTING WE MAY ALSO BE DEALING WITH A STORM SYSTEM BY
NEXT FRIDAY. OF COURSE THIS IS A WEEK AWAY BUT IT DOES INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH A COUPLE
SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LOW CIGS BELOW 1000 FT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KABR AND KATY
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN EDGE OF IFR
STRATUS IS JUST A FEW MILES WEST OF KABR. BR ALSO EXPECTED AT
THESE TWO SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VSBY EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY 2SM TO 6SM THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT VISBY WILL FALL BELOW 1SM. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP VSBY ABOVE 1SM AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF STRATUS
DOES IN FACT CLEAR OFF AT KABR...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE VISBY TANK
SIGNIFICANTLY...PROBABLY TO VLIFR HEAVY FOG.

FURTHER WEST OVER KMBG AND KPIR...LOW CIGS NOT A FACTOR TONIGHT
OR SATURDAY WITH GOOD VFR TO START OFF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LATER
TONIGHT THOUGH...FG/BR A GOOD POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN...WITH KPIR
POSSIBLY GOING BELOW 1SM VSBY. SEEMS CHANCES FOR FG/BR BETTER AT
KPIR THAN KMBG SO HAVE NOT LOWERED VSBY AS MUCH IN TAF FOR
KMBG...BUT STILL HAVE A MENTION OF BR NONETHELESS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 200001 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
601 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

CURRENTLY ON RADAR THERE IS AN AREA OF FLURRIES MOVING ACROSS FAR
NE SD/WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL EXIT BY 00Z.

MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE STRATUS/FOG AND ITS EFFECTS ON
TEMPERATURES. STRATUS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ON A NORTH SOUTH LINE FROM
EDMUNDS COUNTY TO EASTERN HAND COUNTY EASTWARD. 925 MB RH ON
RUC/NAM/GFS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL PUNCH AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS
THE JAMES VALLEY BY 6Z AND THEN ACROSS NORTHEAST SD..WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WATERTOWN..BY 18Z SATURDAY. AS THERE WAS THIS
MORNING..AREAS ON THE CLEAR SIDE OF THE STRATUS LINE WILL STILL
LIKELY SEE SOME FOG IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS
SNOW ON THE GROUND. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION
WHERE THE STRATUS LINGERS TONIGHT..PERHAPS ONLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES SPREAD FROM THE HIGHS TODAY. AREAS WEST WILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS TO AROUND 20.

ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PUSH OF WEAK WAA IN THE MORNING
BEFORE A SFC TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE
EC/NAM/RUC DRY SIDE AND KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP. THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A SHORTWAVE WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER..BUT IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY WILL CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES
AIM AT THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA MAY BEGIN AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FZRA WITH WARMER AIR IN
PLACE WITH AND AHEAD OF THE LOW. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALL
PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN CAA.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND THE STORM SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM...BUT STILL MANY
FINER DETAILS TO WORK OUT. 12Z GFS HAS SHIFTED THE QPF AXIS
FURTHER WEST RIGHT OVER THE JAMES VALLEY AND IS MORE BULLISH ON
SNOW AMOUNTS. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE 12Z EC HAS ALSO SHIFTED
WEST TOWARDS THE JAMES VALLEY...A CHANGE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS.
ALTHOUGH...IT IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH WITH QPF...BUT STILL GIVES THE
AREA A FEW INCHES OF SNOW NONETHELESS. STILL DO NOT HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS WHOLE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY WHEN
MODELS SEEM TO STRUGGLE WITH LOWS THAT DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN CANADA THEN INTENSIFY OVER THE UPPER PLAINS AND
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OR NORTHEAST. HAVE BEGUN TO RAMP THINGS UP A
BIT BY INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED QPF/SNOW ACCUMS A BIT. SUPERBLEND WINDS SEEMED
RATHER LOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY GIVEN THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. HAVE THEREFORE ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS.

MODELS SUGGESTING WE MAY ALSO BE DEALING WITH A STORM SYSTEM BY
NEXT FRIDAY. OF COURSE THIS IS A WEEK AWAY BUT IT DOES INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH A COUPLE
SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LOW CIGS BELOW 1000 FT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KABR AND KATY
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN EDGE OF IFR
STRATUS IS JUST A FEW MILES WEST OF KABR. BR ALSO EXPECTED AT
THESE TWO SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VSBY EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY 2SM TO 6SM THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT VISBY WILL FALL BELOW 1SM. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP VSBY ABOVE 1SM AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF STRATUS
DOES IN FACT CLEAR OFF AT KABR...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE VISBY TANK
SIGNIFICANTLY...PROBABLY TO VLIFR HEAVY FOG.

FURTHER WEST OVER KMBG AND KPIR...LOW CIGS NOT A FACTOR TONIGHT
OR SATURDAY WITH GOOD VFR TO START OFF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LATER
TONIGHT THOUGH...FG/BR A GOOD POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN...WITH KPIR
POSSIBLY GOING BELOW 1SM VSBY. SEEMS CHANCES FOR FG/BR BETTER AT
KPIR THAN KMBG SO HAVE NOT LOWERED VSBY AS MUCH IN TAF FOR
KMBG...BUT STILL HAVE A MENTION OF BR NONETHELESS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 200001 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
601 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

CURRENTLY ON RADAR THERE IS AN AREA OF FLURRIES MOVING ACROSS FAR
NE SD/WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL EXIT BY 00Z.

MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE STRATUS/FOG AND ITS EFFECTS ON
TEMPERATURES. STRATUS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ON A NORTH SOUTH LINE FROM
EDMUNDS COUNTY TO EASTERN HAND COUNTY EASTWARD. 925 MB RH ON
RUC/NAM/GFS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL PUNCH AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS
THE JAMES VALLEY BY 6Z AND THEN ACROSS NORTHEAST SD..WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WATERTOWN..BY 18Z SATURDAY. AS THERE WAS THIS
MORNING..AREAS ON THE CLEAR SIDE OF THE STRATUS LINE WILL STILL
LIKELY SEE SOME FOG IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS
SNOW ON THE GROUND. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION
WHERE THE STRATUS LINGERS TONIGHT..PERHAPS ONLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES SPREAD FROM THE HIGHS TODAY. AREAS WEST WILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS TO AROUND 20.

ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PUSH OF WEAK WAA IN THE MORNING
BEFORE A SFC TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE
EC/NAM/RUC DRY SIDE AND KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP. THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A SHORTWAVE WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER..BUT IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY WILL CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES
AIM AT THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA MAY BEGIN AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FZRA WITH WARMER AIR IN
PLACE WITH AND AHEAD OF THE LOW. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALL
PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN CAA.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND THE STORM SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM...BUT STILL MANY
FINER DETAILS TO WORK OUT. 12Z GFS HAS SHIFTED THE QPF AXIS
FURTHER WEST RIGHT OVER THE JAMES VALLEY AND IS MORE BULLISH ON
SNOW AMOUNTS. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE 12Z EC HAS ALSO SHIFTED
WEST TOWARDS THE JAMES VALLEY...A CHANGE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS.
ALTHOUGH...IT IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH WITH QPF...BUT STILL GIVES THE
AREA A FEW INCHES OF SNOW NONETHELESS. STILL DO NOT HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS WHOLE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY WHEN
MODELS SEEM TO STRUGGLE WITH LOWS THAT DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN CANADA THEN INTENSIFY OVER THE UPPER PLAINS AND
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OR NORTHEAST. HAVE BEGUN TO RAMP THINGS UP A
BIT BY INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED QPF/SNOW ACCUMS A BIT. SUPERBLEND WINDS SEEMED
RATHER LOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY GIVEN THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. HAVE THEREFORE ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS.

MODELS SUGGESTING WE MAY ALSO BE DEALING WITH A STORM SYSTEM BY
NEXT FRIDAY. OF COURSE THIS IS A WEEK AWAY BUT IT DOES INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH A COUPLE
SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LOW CIGS BELOW 1000 FT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KABR AND KATY
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN EDGE OF IFR
STRATUS IS JUST A FEW MILES WEST OF KABR. BR ALSO EXPECTED AT
THESE TWO SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VSBY EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY 2SM TO 6SM THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT VISBY WILL FALL BELOW 1SM. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP VSBY ABOVE 1SM AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF STRATUS
DOES IN FACT CLEAR OFF AT KABR...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE VISBY TANK
SIGNIFICANTLY...PROBABLY TO VLIFR HEAVY FOG.

FURTHER WEST OVER KMBG AND KPIR...LOW CIGS NOT A FACTOR TONIGHT
OR SATURDAY WITH GOOD VFR TO START OFF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LATER
TONIGHT THOUGH...FG/BR A GOOD POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN...WITH KPIR
POSSIBLY GOING BELOW 1SM VSBY. SEEMS CHANCES FOR FG/BR BETTER AT
KPIR THAN KMBG SO HAVE NOT LOWERED VSBY AS MUCH IN TAF FOR
KMBG...BUT STILL HAVE A MENTION OF BR NONETHELESS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 192335
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING ONLY IN OUR FAR WEST ACROSS BRULE AND
GREGORY COUNTIES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN THE STRATUS DECK INTO
TOMORROW. COULD SEE A BIT OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT A MAJORITY OF US WILL STAY LOCKED IN
THE CLOUDS. WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AS
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE DENSE FOG FORM WEST OF
INTERSTATE 29. SO ADDED FOG INTO THE GRIDS...HITTING IT HARDER TO
THE WEST. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT AND THUS RAISED LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES. MOST
PLACES WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30...WITH OUR
CLEAR LOCATIONS OUT WEST THE ONLY LOCATIONS ABLE TO RADIATE INTO THE
TEENS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY RAISE A FEW DEGREES FROM THE MORNING
LOWS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S EXPECTED.

UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. DECENT DRY LAYER
SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS CENTERED AROUND 800 MB. SO WHILE WE WILL
PROBABLY SEE SOME VIRGA...THINK IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TO
REACH THE GROUND. BEST CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLY REACHING
THE GROUND IS BEFORE MIDNIGHT..GENERALLY ALONG OR NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. OTHER QUESTION IS FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL IN THE
STRATUS. DID NOT SEE ANY LAST NIGHT...AND TONIGHTS SOUNDINGS ARE
SIMILAR. SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE
IT OUT THOUGH...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. AT THIS TIME FEEL
THAT EVEN IF WE GOT SOME IT WOULD BE TOO LIGHT TO CAUSE ANY REAL
ISSUES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP MILD BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS. STILL LOOKING LIKE AN EVENT WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION BUT HOPEFULLY AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE RELATIVE
LIGHT SIDE. BUT IF THINGS COME TOGETHER LIKE THEY ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ANY TRAVEL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED. COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE IN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES NOT TOO COLD BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SO
ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL. STILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES AND EXPECTED
TO EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS NOT VERY
AGREEABLE SO CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH AT THIS POINT BUT
UNFORTUNATELY COULD MAKE FOR SOME POTENTIALLY TRICKY DRIVING
CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH DECEMBER 26TH. THE 12Z ECMWF IS PARTICULARLY
INTERESTING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGELY STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF IFR TO LOWER END MVFR...
BUT DID SHOW SOME LOWERING...INTO LIFR RANGE AT SOME LOCATIONS...
FROM MID-LATE EVENING THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING...WITH MARGINAL
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. PRIMARY
AREA OF LOWER CONFIDENCE IS WHETHER WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS WORKS
CLOSER TO KHON...AND IF SO WILL DENSE FOG DEVELOP IN ITS PLACE
OVERNIGHT. MODELS LARGELY AGREE ON KEEPING THE STRATUS IN PLACE...
BUT WILL TRY TO MONITOR ON SATELLITE THROUGH THE EVENING NOW THAT
HIGHER CLOUDS ARE MOVING OUT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 192335
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING ONLY IN OUR FAR WEST ACROSS BRULE AND
GREGORY COUNTIES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN THE STRATUS DECK INTO
TOMORROW. COULD SEE A BIT OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT A MAJORITY OF US WILL STAY LOCKED IN
THE CLOUDS. WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AS
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE DENSE FOG FORM WEST OF
INTERSTATE 29. SO ADDED FOG INTO THE GRIDS...HITTING IT HARDER TO
THE WEST. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT AND THUS RAISED LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES. MOST
PLACES WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30...WITH OUR
CLEAR LOCATIONS OUT WEST THE ONLY LOCATIONS ABLE TO RADIATE INTO THE
TEENS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY RAISE A FEW DEGREES FROM THE MORNING
LOWS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S EXPECTED.

UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. DECENT DRY LAYER
SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS CENTERED AROUND 800 MB. SO WHILE WE WILL
PROBABLY SEE SOME VIRGA...THINK IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TO
REACH THE GROUND. BEST CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLY REACHING
THE GROUND IS BEFORE MIDNIGHT..GENERALLY ALONG OR NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. OTHER QUESTION IS FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL IN THE
STRATUS. DID NOT SEE ANY LAST NIGHT...AND TONIGHTS SOUNDINGS ARE
SIMILAR. SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE
IT OUT THOUGH...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. AT THIS TIME FEEL
THAT EVEN IF WE GOT SOME IT WOULD BE TOO LIGHT TO CAUSE ANY REAL
ISSUES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP MILD BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS. STILL LOOKING LIKE AN EVENT WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION BUT HOPEFULLY AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE RELATIVE
LIGHT SIDE. BUT IF THINGS COME TOGETHER LIKE THEY ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ANY TRAVEL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED. COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE IN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES NOT TOO COLD BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SO
ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL. STILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES AND EXPECTED
TO EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS NOT VERY
AGREEABLE SO CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH AT THIS POINT BUT
UNFORTUNATELY COULD MAKE FOR SOME POTENTIALLY TRICKY DRIVING
CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH DECEMBER 26TH. THE 12Z ECMWF IS PARTICULARLY
INTERESTING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGELY STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF IFR TO LOWER END MVFR...
BUT DID SHOW SOME LOWERING...INTO LIFR RANGE AT SOME LOCATIONS...
FROM MID-LATE EVENING THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING...WITH MARGINAL
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. PRIMARY
AREA OF LOWER CONFIDENCE IS WHETHER WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS WORKS
CLOSER TO KHON...AND IF SO WILL DENSE FOG DEVELOP IN ITS PLACE
OVERNIGHT. MODELS LARGELY AGREE ON KEEPING THE STRATUS IN PLACE...
BUT WILL TRY TO MONITOR ON SATELLITE THROUGH THE EVENING NOW THAT
HIGHER CLOUDS ARE MOVING OUT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KUNR 192202
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
302 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL SD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES... WITH
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST.
SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS
OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS. KUDX RADAR EVEN
HAS SHOWN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER WEST CENTRAL SD. TEMPS ARE
MILD...UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. WINDS ARE MOSTLY FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

MILDER WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST FLATTENS OUT AS IT MOVES OVER THE PLAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WEAK AND QUICK MOVING
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. CLOUDS AND SOME AREAS OF LIGHT MIXED PCPN ARE POSSIBLE AS IT
MOVES THROUGH.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS THE
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS AREA...AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST
SD AS CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG DOES LOOK POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS AS LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MINIMAL...SO WILL KEEP
CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MIX OF PCPN IF ANY DOES FALL...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING
BEHIND IT. MILD TEMPS WILL PERSIST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
30S AND 40S AGAIN...AS WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 20S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LARGE SCALE FEATURES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHOWING A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST AND A BROAD
TROUGH/UPPER LOW CLOSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS
AN OPEN WAVE AS THE TROUGH CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE 12Z
GFS IS NOW SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...DROPPING SOUTHWARD TO OVER
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY EVENING...COMING BACK INTO LINE
WITH THE ECMWF AT THAT POINT. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. POPS WOULD BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY WITH COOLER
AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...WITH SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT THE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...WHERE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL 0-2KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW. EXTENDED MODELS SEEM TO BE TRANSITIONING
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. WHERE THE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE LATEST GFS IS SHOWING A MUCH DIFFERENT PATTERN WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT LATER
RUNS TO COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SN WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 192202
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
302 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL SD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES... WITH
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST.
SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS
OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS. KUDX RADAR EVEN
HAS SHOWN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER WEST CENTRAL SD. TEMPS ARE
MILD...UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. WINDS ARE MOSTLY FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

MILDER WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST FLATTENS OUT AS IT MOVES OVER THE PLAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WEAK AND QUICK MOVING
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. CLOUDS AND SOME AREAS OF LIGHT MIXED PCPN ARE POSSIBLE AS IT
MOVES THROUGH.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS THE
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS AREA...AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST
SD AS CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG DOES LOOK POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS AS LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MINIMAL...SO WILL KEEP
CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MIX OF PCPN IF ANY DOES FALL...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING
BEHIND IT. MILD TEMPS WILL PERSIST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
30S AND 40S AGAIN...AS WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 20S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LARGE SCALE FEATURES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHOWING A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST AND A BROAD
TROUGH/UPPER LOW CLOSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS
AN OPEN WAVE AS THE TROUGH CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE 12Z
GFS IS NOW SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...DROPPING SOUTHWARD TO OVER
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY EVENING...COMING BACK INTO LINE
WITH THE ECMWF AT THAT POINT. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. POPS WOULD BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY WITH COOLER
AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...WITH SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT THE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...WHERE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL 0-2KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW. EXTENDED MODELS SEEM TO BE TRANSITIONING
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. WHERE THE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE LATEST GFS IS SHOWING A MUCH DIFFERENT PATTERN WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT LATER
RUNS TO COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SN WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KFSD 192108
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
308 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING ONLY IN OUR FAR WEST ACROSS BRULE AND
GREGORY COUNTIES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN THE STRATUS DECK INTO
TOMORROW. COULD SEE A BIT OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT A MAJORITY OF US WILL STAY LOCKED IN
THE CLOUDS. WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AS
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE DENSE FOG FORM WEST OF
INTERSTATE 29. SO ADDED FOG INTO THE GRIDS...HITTING IT HARDER TO
THE WEST. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT AND THUS RAISED LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES. MOST
PLACES WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30...WITH OUR
CLEAR LOCATIONS OUT WEST THE ONLY LOCATIONS ABLE TO RADIATE INTO THE
TEENS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY RAISE A FEW DEGREES FROM THE MORNING
LOWS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S EXPECTED.

UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. DECENT DRY LAYER
SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS CENTERED AROUND 800 MB. SO WHILE WE WILL
PROBABLY SEE SOME VIRGA...THINK IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TO
REACH THE GROUND. BEST CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLY REACHING
THE GROUND IS BEFORE MIDNIGHT..GENERALLY ALONG OR NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. OTHER QUESTION IS FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL IN THE
STRATUS. DID NOT SEE ANY LAST NIGHT...AND TONIGHTS SOUNDINGS ARE
SIMILAR. SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE
IT OUT THOUGH...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. AT THIS TIME FEEL
THAT EVEN IF WE GOT SOME IT WOULD BE TOO LIGHT TO CAUSE ANY REAL
ISSUES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP MILD BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS. STILL LOOKING LIKE AN EVENT WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION BUT HOPEFULLY AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE RELATIVE
LIGHT SIDE. BUT IF THINGS COME TOGETHER LIKE THEY ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ANY TRAVEL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED. COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE IN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES NOT TOO COLD BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SO
ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL. STILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES AND EXPECTED
TO EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS NOT VERY
AGREEABLE SO CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH AT THIS POINT BUT
UNFORTUNATELY COULD MAKE FOR SOME POTENTIALLY TRICKY DRIVING
CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH DECEMBER 26TH. THE 12Z ECMWF IS PARTICULARLY
INTERESTING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A PERSISTENT FORECAST KEEPING CIGS VERY
SIMILAR TO WHERE THEY ARE NOW INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THINGS TO
WATCH WILL BE WHETHER CIGS ARE ABLE TO LOWER A FEW HUNDRED MORE
FEET TONIGHT...AND WHETHER WE SEE ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 192108
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
308 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING ONLY IN OUR FAR WEST ACROSS BRULE AND
GREGORY COUNTIES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN THE STRATUS DECK INTO
TOMORROW. COULD SEE A BIT OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT A MAJORITY OF US WILL STAY LOCKED IN
THE CLOUDS. WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AS
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE DENSE FOG FORM WEST OF
INTERSTATE 29. SO ADDED FOG INTO THE GRIDS...HITTING IT HARDER TO
THE WEST. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT AND THUS RAISED LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES. MOST
PLACES WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30...WITH OUR
CLEAR LOCATIONS OUT WEST THE ONLY LOCATIONS ABLE TO RADIATE INTO THE
TEENS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY RAISE A FEW DEGREES FROM THE MORNING
LOWS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S EXPECTED.

UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. DECENT DRY LAYER
SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS CENTERED AROUND 800 MB. SO WHILE WE WILL
PROBABLY SEE SOME VIRGA...THINK IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TO
REACH THE GROUND. BEST CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLY REACHING
THE GROUND IS BEFORE MIDNIGHT..GENERALLY ALONG OR NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. OTHER QUESTION IS FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL IN THE
STRATUS. DID NOT SEE ANY LAST NIGHT...AND TONIGHTS SOUNDINGS ARE
SIMILAR. SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE
IT OUT THOUGH...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. AT THIS TIME FEEL
THAT EVEN IF WE GOT SOME IT WOULD BE TOO LIGHT TO CAUSE ANY REAL
ISSUES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP MILD BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS. STILL LOOKING LIKE AN EVENT WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION BUT HOPEFULLY AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE RELATIVE
LIGHT SIDE. BUT IF THINGS COME TOGETHER LIKE THEY ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ANY TRAVEL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED. COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE IN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES NOT TOO COLD BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SO
ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL. STILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES AND EXPECTED
TO EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS NOT VERY
AGREEABLE SO CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH AT THIS POINT BUT
UNFORTUNATELY COULD MAKE FOR SOME POTENTIALLY TRICKY DRIVING
CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH DECEMBER 26TH. THE 12Z ECMWF IS PARTICULARLY
INTERESTING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A PERSISTENT FORECAST KEEPING CIGS VERY
SIMILAR TO WHERE THEY ARE NOW INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THINGS TO
WATCH WILL BE WHETHER CIGS ARE ABLE TO LOWER A FEW HUNDRED MORE
FEET TONIGHT...AND WHETHER WE SEE ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KABR 192039
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
239 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

CURRENTLY ON RADAR THERE IS AN AREA OF FLURRIES MOVING ACROSS FAR
NE SD/WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL EXIT BY 00Z.

MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE STRATUS/FOG AND ITS EFFECTS ON
TEMPERATURES. STRATUS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ON A NORTH SOUTH LINE FROM
EDMUNDS COUNTY TO EASTERN HAND COUNTY EASTWARD. 925 MB RH ON
RUC/NAM/GFS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL PUNCH AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS
THE JAMES VALLEY BY 6Z AND THEN ACROSS NORTHEAST SD..WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WATERTOWN..BY 18Z SATURDAY. AS THERE WAS THIS
MORNING..AREAS ON THE CLEAR SIDE OF THE STRATUS LINE WILL STILL
LIKELY SEE SOME FOG IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS
SNOW ON THE GROUND. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION
WHERE THE STRATUS LINGERS TONIGHT..PERHAPS ONLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES SPREAD FROM THE HIGHS TODAY. AREAS WEST WILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS TO AROUND 20.

ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PUSH OF WEAK WAA IN THE MORNING
BEFORE A SFC TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE
EC/NAM/RUC DRY SIDE AND KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP. THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A SHORTWAVE WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER..BUT IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY WILL CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES
AIM AT THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA MAY BEGIN AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FZRA WITH WARMER AIR IN
PLACE WITH AND AHEAD OF THE LOW. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALL
PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN CAA.



.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND THE STORM SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM...BUT STILL MANY
FINER DETAILS TO WORK OUT. 12Z GFS HAS SHIFTED THE QPF AXIS
FURTHER WEST RIGHT OVER THE JAMES VALLEY AND IS MORE BULLISH ON
SNOW AMOUNTS. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE 12Z EC HAS ALSO SHIFTED
WEST TOWARDS THE JAMES VALLEY...A CHANGE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS.
ALTHOUGH...IT IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH WITH QPF...BUT STILL GIVES THE
AREA A FEW INCHES OF SNOW NONETHELESS. STILL DO NOT HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS WHOLE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY WHEN
MODELS SEEM TO STRUGGLE WITH LOWS THAT DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN CANADA THEN INTENSIFY OVER THE UPPER PLAINS AND
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OR NORTHEAST. HAVE BEGUN TO RAMP THINGS UP A
BIT BY INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED QPF/SNOW ACCUMS A BIT. SUPERBLEND WINDS SEEMED
RATHER LOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY GIVEN THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. HAVE THEREFORE ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS.

MODELS SUGGESTING WE MAY ALSO BE DEALING WITH A STORM SYSTEM BY
NEXT FRIDAY. OF COURSE THIS IS A WEEK AWAY BUT IT DOES INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH A COUPLE
SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LOW CIGS BELOW 1000 FT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KABR AND KATY
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...CIGS WILL LIKELY BE
CLOSER TO 500 FT OR BELOW AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS IN CIG
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. BR ALSO EXPECTED AT
THESE TWO SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VSBY EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY 2SM TO 6SM THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT
PERIODS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
CIGS WILL FALL BELOW 1SM. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VSBY ABOVE 1SM AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FURTHER WEST OVER KMBG AND KPIR...CIGS NOT A FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TONIGHT THOUGH...FG/BR A GOOD
POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN...WITH KPIR POSSIBLY GOING BELOW 1SM VSBY.
SEEMS CHANCES FOR FG/BR BETTER AT KPIR THAN KMBG SO HAVE NOT
LOWERED VSBY AS MUCH IN TAF FOR KMBG...BUT STILL HAVE A MENTION OF
BR NONETHELESS.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 191758 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1158 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE SKY COVER IN THE WEST
THIS MORNING. ALSO ADDED IN A FLURRY MENTION ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS RADAR INDICATES A PATCH OF
FLURRIES/-FZDZ JUST SKIRTING THE ND/SD BORDER IN DICKEY COUNTY
RIGHT NOW.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST
TODAY. FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPEARS TO BE WIDELY SPACE
ENOUGH THAT DIABATIC HEATING WILL MIX DOWN A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLEARING LINE TO PUSH INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.
FARTHER EAST...WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES AT LEAST DESPITE THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AT LEAST THERE IS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WENT MAINLY WITH
FLURRIES AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...THOUGH WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN +1 AND +3C...COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LINCHPIN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE WHAT MEAGER SUN WE
CAN PULL OFF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS CLOSING THE LOW
OFF...BUT THE GEM AND GFS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING LESS
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A BAND THAT SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA...PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...WILL STICK WITH SCHC/CHC POPS UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION
COMES INTO SIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL
REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON MONDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THAT AREA. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO FINALLY BRING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SYSTEM THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT FOR THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE STATE. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL POP TO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR THEN GETS DRAWN DOWN IN THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LOW CIGS BELOW 1000 FT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KABR AND KATY
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...CIGS WILL LIKELY BE
CLOSER TO 500 FT OR BELOW AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS IN CIG
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. BR ALSO EXPECTED AT
THESE TWO SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VSBY EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY 2SM TO 6SM THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT
PERIODS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
CIGS WILL FALL BELOW 1SM. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VSBY ABOVE 1SM AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FURTHER WEST OVER KMBG AND KPIR...CIGS NOT A FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TONIGHT THOUGH...FG/BR A GOOD
POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN...WITH KPIR POSSIBLY GOING BELOW 1SM VSBY.
SEEMS CHANCES FOR FG/BR BETTER AT KPIR THAN KMBG SO HAVE NOT
LOWERED VSBY AS MUCH IN TAF FOR KMBG...BUT STILL HAVE A MENTION OF
BR NONETHELESS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE/TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 191758 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1158 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE SKY COVER IN THE WEST
THIS MORNING. ALSO ADDED IN A FLURRY MENTION ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS RADAR INDICATES A PATCH OF
FLURRIES/-FZDZ JUST SKIRTING THE ND/SD BORDER IN DICKEY COUNTY
RIGHT NOW.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST
TODAY. FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPEARS TO BE WIDELY SPACE
ENOUGH THAT DIABATIC HEATING WILL MIX DOWN A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLEARING LINE TO PUSH INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.
FARTHER EAST...WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES AT LEAST DESPITE THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AT LEAST THERE IS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WENT MAINLY WITH
FLURRIES AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...THOUGH WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN +1 AND +3C...COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LINCHPIN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE WHAT MEAGER SUN WE
CAN PULL OFF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS CLOSING THE LOW
OFF...BUT THE GEM AND GFS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING LESS
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A BAND THAT SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA...PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...WILL STICK WITH SCHC/CHC POPS UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION
COMES INTO SIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL
REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON MONDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THAT AREA. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO FINALLY BRING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SYSTEM THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT FOR THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE STATE. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL POP TO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR THEN GETS DRAWN DOWN IN THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LOW CIGS BELOW 1000 FT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KABR AND KATY
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...CIGS WILL LIKELY BE
CLOSER TO 500 FT OR BELOW AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS IN CIG
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. BR ALSO EXPECTED AT
THESE TWO SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VSBY EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY 2SM TO 6SM THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT
PERIODS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
CIGS WILL FALL BELOW 1SM. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VSBY ABOVE 1SM AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FURTHER WEST OVER KMBG AND KPIR...CIGS NOT A FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TONIGHT THOUGH...FG/BR A GOOD
POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN...WITH KPIR POSSIBLY GOING BELOW 1SM VSBY.
SEEMS CHANCES FOR FG/BR BETTER AT KPIR THAN KMBG SO HAVE NOT
LOWERED VSBY AS MUCH IN TAF FOR KMBG...BUT STILL HAVE A MENTION OF
BR NONETHELESS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE/TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 191758 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1158 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE SKY COVER IN THE WEST
THIS MORNING. ALSO ADDED IN A FLURRY MENTION ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS RADAR INDICATES A PATCH OF
FLURRIES/-FZDZ JUST SKIRTING THE ND/SD BORDER IN DICKEY COUNTY
RIGHT NOW.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST
TODAY. FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPEARS TO BE WIDELY SPACE
ENOUGH THAT DIABATIC HEATING WILL MIX DOWN A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLEARING LINE TO PUSH INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.
FARTHER EAST...WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES AT LEAST DESPITE THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AT LEAST THERE IS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WENT MAINLY WITH
FLURRIES AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...THOUGH WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN +1 AND +3C...COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LINCHPIN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE WHAT MEAGER SUN WE
CAN PULL OFF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS CLOSING THE LOW
OFF...BUT THE GEM AND GFS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING LESS
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A BAND THAT SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA...PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...WILL STICK WITH SCHC/CHC POPS UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION
COMES INTO SIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL
REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON MONDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THAT AREA. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO FINALLY BRING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SYSTEM THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT FOR THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE STATE. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL POP TO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR THEN GETS DRAWN DOWN IN THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LOW CIGS BELOW 1000 FT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KABR AND KATY
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...CIGS WILL LIKELY BE
CLOSER TO 500 FT OR BELOW AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS IN CIG
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. BR ALSO EXPECTED AT
THESE TWO SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VSBY EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY 2SM TO 6SM THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT
PERIODS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
CIGS WILL FALL BELOW 1SM. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VSBY ABOVE 1SM AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FURTHER WEST OVER KMBG AND KPIR...CIGS NOT A FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TONIGHT THOUGH...FG/BR A GOOD
POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN...WITH KPIR POSSIBLY GOING BELOW 1SM VSBY.
SEEMS CHANCES FOR FG/BR BETTER AT KPIR THAN KMBG SO HAVE NOT
LOWERED VSBY AS MUCH IN TAF FOR KMBG...BUT STILL HAVE A MENTION OF
BR NONETHELESS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE/TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 191758 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1158 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE SKY COVER IN THE WEST
THIS MORNING. ALSO ADDED IN A FLURRY MENTION ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS RADAR INDICATES A PATCH OF
FLURRIES/-FZDZ JUST SKIRTING THE ND/SD BORDER IN DICKEY COUNTY
RIGHT NOW.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST
TODAY. FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPEARS TO BE WIDELY SPACE
ENOUGH THAT DIABATIC HEATING WILL MIX DOWN A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLEARING LINE TO PUSH INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.
FARTHER EAST...WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES AT LEAST DESPITE THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AT LEAST THERE IS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WENT MAINLY WITH
FLURRIES AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...THOUGH WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN +1 AND +3C...COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LINCHPIN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE WHAT MEAGER SUN WE
CAN PULL OFF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS CLOSING THE LOW
OFF...BUT THE GEM AND GFS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING LESS
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A BAND THAT SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA...PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...WILL STICK WITH SCHC/CHC POPS UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION
COMES INTO SIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL
REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON MONDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THAT AREA. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO FINALLY BRING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SYSTEM THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT FOR THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE STATE. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL POP TO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR THEN GETS DRAWN DOWN IN THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LOW CIGS BELOW 1000 FT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KABR AND KATY
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...CIGS WILL LIKELY BE
CLOSER TO 500 FT OR BELOW AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS IN CIG
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. BR ALSO EXPECTED AT
THESE TWO SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VSBY EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY 2SM TO 6SM THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT
PERIODS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
CIGS WILL FALL BELOW 1SM. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VSBY ABOVE 1SM AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FURTHER WEST OVER KMBG AND KPIR...CIGS NOT A FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TONIGHT THOUGH...FG/BR A GOOD
POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN...WITH KPIR POSSIBLY GOING BELOW 1SM VSBY.
SEEMS CHANCES FOR FG/BR BETTER AT KPIR THAN KMBG SO HAVE NOT
LOWERED VSBY AS MUCH IN TAF FOR KMBG...BUT STILL HAVE A MENTION OF
BR NONETHELESS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE/TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 191743
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1143 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
CLEARING LINE.  AREAS IN EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY SEE
A LITTLE SUN TODAY AS CLEARING LINE SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY EAST.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCKED
IN STRATUS TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY BUT MOISTURE ISN`T SO
DEEP RIGHT NOW BUT MODELS DO SHOW A LITTLE DEEPENING WITH TIME
ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AT THIS
TIME...I DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTIES.  DEFINITELY ANOTHER GREY FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND THE UPWARD CLIMB
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS.  SO MORE SEASONAL HIGHS.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT...THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS AGAIN
THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A
LOOK AT WHETHER THE MOISTURE IS TRULY DEEPENING OR IS IT A MODEL
ANOMALY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING TO OUR EAST. WITH A MOIST 935 MB FLOW
CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECTING
STRATUS TO HOLD STRONG AT LEAST INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN OUR WEST ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TAKES ON A MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. SIGNALS FOR
DRIZZLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKED EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE IN
MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...SO CONFINED DRIZZLE CHANCES TO OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO RUN GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S...THEN AS
925 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...HIGHS WILL RESPOND
IN KIND TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON THAT DAY.

WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON
OUR AREA. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON SPECIFICS...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE IN OUR
EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE BEST THETA E ADVECTION WILL BE
SITUATED AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. AGAIN THERE ARE
VARIATIONS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WARM LAYER ALOFT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WOULD BE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/OR
SLEET...THOUGH FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THAT AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWLY COOLING THERMAL PROFILES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW...WITH SOME RAIN IN THE
SOUTH WHERE IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S THROUGH THAT AREA.

BY MONDAY NIGHT THERMAL PROFILES WILL HAVE COOLED SUFFICIENTLY THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ALL SNOW...WITH THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...LOOKS TO DRY OUT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A PERSISTENT FORECAST KEEPING CIGS VERY
SIMILAR TO WHERE THEY ARE NOW INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THINGS TO
WATCH WILL BE WHETHER CIGS ARE ABLE TO LOWER A FEW HUNDRED MORE
FEET TONIGHT...AND WHETHER WE SEE ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 191743
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1143 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
CLEARING LINE.  AREAS IN EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY SEE
A LITTLE SUN TODAY AS CLEARING LINE SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY EAST.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCKED
IN STRATUS TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY BUT MOISTURE ISN`T SO
DEEP RIGHT NOW BUT MODELS DO SHOW A LITTLE DEEPENING WITH TIME
ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AT THIS
TIME...I DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTIES.  DEFINITELY ANOTHER GREY FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND THE UPWARD CLIMB
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS.  SO MORE SEASONAL HIGHS.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT...THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS AGAIN
THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A
LOOK AT WHETHER THE MOISTURE IS TRULY DEEPENING OR IS IT A MODEL
ANOMALY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING TO OUR EAST. WITH A MOIST 935 MB FLOW
CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECTING
STRATUS TO HOLD STRONG AT LEAST INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN OUR WEST ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TAKES ON A MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. SIGNALS FOR
DRIZZLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKED EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE IN
MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...SO CONFINED DRIZZLE CHANCES TO OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO RUN GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S...THEN AS
925 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...HIGHS WILL RESPOND
IN KIND TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON THAT DAY.

WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON
OUR AREA. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON SPECIFICS...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE IN OUR
EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE BEST THETA E ADVECTION WILL BE
SITUATED AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. AGAIN THERE ARE
VARIATIONS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WARM LAYER ALOFT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WOULD BE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/OR
SLEET...THOUGH FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THAT AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWLY COOLING THERMAL PROFILES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW...WITH SOME RAIN IN THE
SOUTH WHERE IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S THROUGH THAT AREA.

BY MONDAY NIGHT THERMAL PROFILES WILL HAVE COOLED SUFFICIENTLY THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ALL SNOW...WITH THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...LOOKS TO DRY OUT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A PERSISTENT FORECAST KEEPING CIGS VERY
SIMILAR TO WHERE THEY ARE NOW INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THINGS TO
WATCH WILL BE WHETHER CIGS ARE ABLE TO LOWER A FEW HUNDRED MORE
FEET TONIGHT...AND WHETHER WE SEE ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 191743
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1143 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
CLEARING LINE.  AREAS IN EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY SEE
A LITTLE SUN TODAY AS CLEARING LINE SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY EAST.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCKED
IN STRATUS TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY BUT MOISTURE ISN`T SO
DEEP RIGHT NOW BUT MODELS DO SHOW A LITTLE DEEPENING WITH TIME
ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AT THIS
TIME...I DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTIES.  DEFINITELY ANOTHER GREY FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND THE UPWARD CLIMB
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS.  SO MORE SEASONAL HIGHS.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT...THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS AGAIN
THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A
LOOK AT WHETHER THE MOISTURE IS TRULY DEEPENING OR IS IT A MODEL
ANOMALY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING TO OUR EAST. WITH A MOIST 935 MB FLOW
CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECTING
STRATUS TO HOLD STRONG AT LEAST INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN OUR WEST ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TAKES ON A MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. SIGNALS FOR
DRIZZLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKED EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE IN
MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...SO CONFINED DRIZZLE CHANCES TO OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO RUN GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S...THEN AS
925 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...HIGHS WILL RESPOND
IN KIND TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON THAT DAY.

WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON
OUR AREA. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON SPECIFICS...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE IN OUR
EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE BEST THETA E ADVECTION WILL BE
SITUATED AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. AGAIN THERE ARE
VARIATIONS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WARM LAYER ALOFT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WOULD BE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/OR
SLEET...THOUGH FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THAT AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWLY COOLING THERMAL PROFILES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW...WITH SOME RAIN IN THE
SOUTH WHERE IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S THROUGH THAT AREA.

BY MONDAY NIGHT THERMAL PROFILES WILL HAVE COOLED SUFFICIENTLY THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ALL SNOW...WITH THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...LOOKS TO DRY OUT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A PERSISTENT FORECAST KEEPING CIGS VERY
SIMILAR TO WHERE THEY ARE NOW INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THINGS TO
WATCH WILL BE WHETHER CIGS ARE ABLE TO LOWER A FEW HUNDRED MORE
FEET TONIGHT...AND WHETHER WE SEE ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 191743
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1143 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
CLEARING LINE.  AREAS IN EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY SEE
A LITTLE SUN TODAY AS CLEARING LINE SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY EAST.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCKED
IN STRATUS TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY BUT MOISTURE ISN`T SO
DEEP RIGHT NOW BUT MODELS DO SHOW A LITTLE DEEPENING WITH TIME
ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AT THIS
TIME...I DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTIES.  DEFINITELY ANOTHER GREY FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND THE UPWARD CLIMB
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS.  SO MORE SEASONAL HIGHS.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT...THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS AGAIN
THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A
LOOK AT WHETHER THE MOISTURE IS TRULY DEEPENING OR IS IT A MODEL
ANOMALY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING TO OUR EAST. WITH A MOIST 935 MB FLOW
CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECTING
STRATUS TO HOLD STRONG AT LEAST INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN OUR WEST ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TAKES ON A MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. SIGNALS FOR
DRIZZLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKED EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE IN
MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...SO CONFINED DRIZZLE CHANCES TO OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO RUN GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S...THEN AS
925 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...HIGHS WILL RESPOND
IN KIND TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON THAT DAY.

WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON
OUR AREA. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON SPECIFICS...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE IN OUR
EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE BEST THETA E ADVECTION WILL BE
SITUATED AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. AGAIN THERE ARE
VARIATIONS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WARM LAYER ALOFT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WOULD BE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/OR
SLEET...THOUGH FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THAT AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWLY COOLING THERMAL PROFILES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW...WITH SOME RAIN IN THE
SOUTH WHERE IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S THROUGH THAT AREA.

BY MONDAY NIGHT THERMAL PROFILES WILL HAVE COOLED SUFFICIENTLY THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ALL SNOW...WITH THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...LOOKS TO DRY OUT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A PERSISTENT FORECAST KEEPING CIGS VERY
SIMILAR TO WHERE THEY ARE NOW INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THINGS TO
WATCH WILL BE WHETHER CIGS ARE ABLE TO LOWER A FEW HUNDRED MORE
FEET TONIGHT...AND WHETHER WE SEE ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KUNR 191717
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1017 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NW
COAST. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

HAVE UPDATED TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED A COUPLE OF DEGREES
IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. ALSO RAISED CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND TWEAKED WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A
COMPACT WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE IS NOT
BRINGING MORE THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO NWRD SD ATTM. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MINNESOTA/GREAT LAKES
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN MT INTO THE CWA. A QUIET DAY IS
EXPECTED TODAY. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL CROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAY...BUT ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SUNSHINE IS
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPING NE FTHLS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. EVENING SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HAVE EXPANDED AREAL COVERAGE OF
POPS OVER NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...BUT WILL LEAVE AT 20 POPS AS
MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE QPF. LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE CWA BY SAT EVNG. TEMPS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAYS...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER WITH GREAT CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

EXTENDED MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND DOWNSTREAM TROF CLOSING
OFF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR TROF CLOSING OFF TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE
SUNDAY/MONDAY. .WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MID
WEEK...WITH SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WOULD BE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...WHERE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL 0-2KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT DIFFER SOME ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF BEST FORCING.
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW LATE CHRISTMAS DAY INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SN WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATE SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 191717
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1017 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NW
COAST. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

HAVE UPDATED TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED A COUPLE OF DEGREES
IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. ALSO RAISED CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND TWEAKED WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A
COMPACT WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE IS NOT
BRINGING MORE THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO NWRD SD ATTM. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MINNESOTA/GREAT LAKES
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN MT INTO THE CWA. A QUIET DAY IS
EXPECTED TODAY. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL CROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAY...BUT ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SUNSHINE IS
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPING NE FTHLS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. EVENING SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HAVE EXPANDED AREAL COVERAGE OF
POPS OVER NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...BUT WILL LEAVE AT 20 POPS AS
MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE QPF. LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE CWA BY SAT EVNG. TEMPS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAYS...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER WITH GREAT CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

EXTENDED MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND DOWNSTREAM TROF CLOSING
OFF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR TROF CLOSING OFF TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE
SUNDAY/MONDAY. .WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MID
WEEK...WITH SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WOULD BE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...WHERE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL 0-2KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT DIFFER SOME ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF BEST FORCING.
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW LATE CHRISTMAS DAY INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SN WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATE SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 191658
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
958 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NW
COAST. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

HAVE UPDATED TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED A COUPLE OF DEGREES
IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. ALSO RAISED CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND TWEAKED WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A
COMPACT WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE IS NOT
BRINGING MORE THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO NWRD SD ATTM. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MINNESOTA/GREAT LAKES
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN MT INTO THE CWA. A QUIET DAY IS
EXPECTED TODAY. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL CROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAY...BUT ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SUNSHINE IS
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPING NE FTHLS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. EVENING SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HAVE EXPANDED AREAL COVERAGE OF
POPS OVER NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...BUT WILL LEAVE AT 20 POPS AS
MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE QPF. LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE CWA BY SAT EVNG. TEMPS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAYS...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER WITH GREAT CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

EXTENDED MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND DOWNSTREAM TROF CLOSING
OFF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR TROF CLOSING OFF TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE
SUNDAY/MONDAY. .WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MID
WEEK...WITH SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WOULD BE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...WHERE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL 0-2KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT DIFFER SOME ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF BEST FORCING.
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW LATE CHRISTMAS DAY INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 191658
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
958 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NW
COAST. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

HAVE UPDATED TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED A COUPLE OF DEGREES
IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. ALSO RAISED CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND TWEAKED WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A
COMPACT WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE IS NOT
BRINGING MORE THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO NWRD SD ATTM. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MINNESOTA/GREAT LAKES
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN MT INTO THE CWA. A QUIET DAY IS
EXPECTED TODAY. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL CROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAY...BUT ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SUNSHINE IS
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPING NE FTHLS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. EVENING SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HAVE EXPANDED AREAL COVERAGE OF
POPS OVER NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...BUT WILL LEAVE AT 20 POPS AS
MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE QPF. LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE CWA BY SAT EVNG. TEMPS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAYS...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER WITH GREAT CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

EXTENDED MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND DOWNSTREAM TROF CLOSING
OFF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR TROF CLOSING OFF TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE
SUNDAY/MONDAY. .WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MID
WEEK...WITH SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WOULD BE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...WHERE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL 0-2KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT DIFFER SOME ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF BEST FORCING.
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW LATE CHRISTMAS DAY INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 191658
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
958 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NW
COAST. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

HAVE UPDATED TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED A COUPLE OF DEGREES
IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. ALSO RAISED CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND TWEAKED WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A
COMPACT WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE IS NOT
BRINGING MORE THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO NWRD SD ATTM. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MINNESOTA/GREAT LAKES
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN MT INTO THE CWA. A QUIET DAY IS
EXPECTED TODAY. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL CROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAY...BUT ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SUNSHINE IS
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPING NE FTHLS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. EVENING SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HAVE EXPANDED AREAL COVERAGE OF
POPS OVER NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...BUT WILL LEAVE AT 20 POPS AS
MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE QPF. LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE CWA BY SAT EVNG. TEMPS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAYS...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER WITH GREAT CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

EXTENDED MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND DOWNSTREAM TROF CLOSING
OFF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR TROF CLOSING OFF TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE
SUNDAY/MONDAY. .WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MID
WEEK...WITH SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WOULD BE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...WHERE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL 0-2KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT DIFFER SOME ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF BEST FORCING.
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW LATE CHRISTMAS DAY INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 191658
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
958 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NW
COAST. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

HAVE UPDATED TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED A COUPLE OF DEGREES
IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. ALSO RAISED CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND TWEAKED WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A
COMPACT WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE IS NOT
BRINGING MORE THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO NWRD SD ATTM. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MINNESOTA/GREAT LAKES
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN MT INTO THE CWA. A QUIET DAY IS
EXPECTED TODAY. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL CROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAY...BUT ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SUNSHINE IS
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPING NE FTHLS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. EVENING SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HAVE EXPANDED AREAL COVERAGE OF
POPS OVER NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...BUT WILL LEAVE AT 20 POPS AS
MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE QPF. LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE CWA BY SAT EVNG. TEMPS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAYS...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER WITH GREAT CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

EXTENDED MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND DOWNSTREAM TROF CLOSING
OFF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR TROF CLOSING OFF TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE
SUNDAY/MONDAY. .WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MID
WEEK...WITH SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WOULD BE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...WHERE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL 0-2KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT DIFFER SOME ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF BEST FORCING.
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW LATE CHRISTMAS DAY INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KABR 191627 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1027 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE SKY COVER IN THE WEST
THIS MORNING. ALSO ADDED IN A FLURRY MENTION ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS RADAR INDICATES A PATCH OF
FLURRIES/-FZDZ JUST SKIRTING THE ND/SD BORDER IN DICKEY COUNTY
RIGHT NOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST
TODAY. FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPEARS TO BE WIDELY SPACE
ENOUGH THAT DIABATIC HEATING WILL MIX DOWN A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLEARING LINE TO PUSH INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.
FARTHER EAST...WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES AT LEAST DESPITE THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AT LEAST THERE IS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WENT MAINLY WITH
FLURRIES AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...THOUGH WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN +1 AND +3C...COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LINCHPIN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE WHAT MEAGER SUN WE
CAN PULL OFF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS CLOSING THE LOW
OFF...BUT THE GEM AND GFS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING LESS
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A BAND THAT SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA...PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...WILL STICK WITH SCHC/CHC POPS UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION
COMES INTO SIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL
REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON MONDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THAT AREA. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO FINALLY BRING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SYSTEM THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT FOR THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE STATE. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL POP TO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR THEN GETS DRAWN DOWN IN THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AFFECTING KATY AND KABR.
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 191627 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1027 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE SKY COVER IN THE WEST
THIS MORNING. ALSO ADDED IN A FLURRY MENTION ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS RADAR INDICATES A PATCH OF
FLURRIES/-FZDZ JUST SKIRTING THE ND/SD BORDER IN DICKEY COUNTY
RIGHT NOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST
TODAY. FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPEARS TO BE WIDELY SPACE
ENOUGH THAT DIABATIC HEATING WILL MIX DOWN A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLEARING LINE TO PUSH INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.
FARTHER EAST...WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES AT LEAST DESPITE THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AT LEAST THERE IS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WENT MAINLY WITH
FLURRIES AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...THOUGH WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN +1 AND +3C...COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LINCHPIN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE WHAT MEAGER SUN WE
CAN PULL OFF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS CLOSING THE LOW
OFF...BUT THE GEM AND GFS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING LESS
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A BAND THAT SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA...PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...WILL STICK WITH SCHC/CHC POPS UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION
COMES INTO SIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL
REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON MONDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THAT AREA. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO FINALLY BRING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SYSTEM THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT FOR THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE STATE. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL POP TO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR THEN GETS DRAWN DOWN IN THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AFFECTING KATY AND KABR.
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 191627 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1027 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE SKY COVER IN THE WEST
THIS MORNING. ALSO ADDED IN A FLURRY MENTION ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS RADAR INDICATES A PATCH OF
FLURRIES/-FZDZ JUST SKIRTING THE ND/SD BORDER IN DICKEY COUNTY
RIGHT NOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST
TODAY. FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPEARS TO BE WIDELY SPACE
ENOUGH THAT DIABATIC HEATING WILL MIX DOWN A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLEARING LINE TO PUSH INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.
FARTHER EAST...WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES AT LEAST DESPITE THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AT LEAST THERE IS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WENT MAINLY WITH
FLURRIES AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...THOUGH WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN +1 AND +3C...COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LINCHPIN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE WHAT MEAGER SUN WE
CAN PULL OFF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS CLOSING THE LOW
OFF...BUT THE GEM AND GFS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING LESS
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A BAND THAT SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA...PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...WILL STICK WITH SCHC/CHC POPS UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION
COMES INTO SIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL
REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON MONDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THAT AREA. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO FINALLY BRING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SYSTEM THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT FOR THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE STATE. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL POP TO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR THEN GETS DRAWN DOWN IN THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AFFECTING KATY AND KABR.
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 191627 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1027 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE SKY COVER IN THE WEST
THIS MORNING. ALSO ADDED IN A FLURRY MENTION ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS RADAR INDICATES A PATCH OF
FLURRIES/-FZDZ JUST SKIRTING THE ND/SD BORDER IN DICKEY COUNTY
RIGHT NOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST
TODAY. FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPEARS TO BE WIDELY SPACE
ENOUGH THAT DIABATIC HEATING WILL MIX DOWN A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLEARING LINE TO PUSH INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.
FARTHER EAST...WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES AT LEAST DESPITE THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AT LEAST THERE IS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WENT MAINLY WITH
FLURRIES AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...THOUGH WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN +1 AND +3C...COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LINCHPIN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE WHAT MEAGER SUN WE
CAN PULL OFF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS CLOSING THE LOW
OFF...BUT THE GEM AND GFS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING LESS
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A BAND THAT SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA...PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...WILL STICK WITH SCHC/CHC POPS UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION
COMES INTO SIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL
REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON MONDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THAT AREA. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO FINALLY BRING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SYSTEM THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT FOR THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE STATE. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL POP TO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR THEN GETS DRAWN DOWN IN THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AFFECTING KATY AND KABR.
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KFSD 191132
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
532 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
CLEARING LINE.  AREAS IN EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY SEE
A LITTLE SUN TODAY AS CLEARING LINE SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY EAST.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCKED
IN STRATUS TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY BUT MOISTURE ISN`T SO
DEEP RIGHT NOW BUT MODELS DO SHOW A LITTLE DEEPENING WITH TIME
ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AT THIS
TIME...I DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTIES.  DEFINITELY ANOTHER GREY FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND THE UPWARD CLIMB
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS.  SO MORE SEASONAL HIGHS.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT...THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS AGAIN
THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A
LOOK AT WHETHER THE MOISTURE IS TRULY DEEPENING OR IS IT A MODEL
ANOMALY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING TO OUR EAST. WITH A MOIST 935 MB FLOW
CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECTING
STRATUS TO HOLD STRONG AT LEAST INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN OUR WEST ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TAKES ON A MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. SIGNALS FOR
DRIZZLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKED EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE IN
MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...SO CONFINED DRIZZLE CHANCES TO OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO RUN GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S...THEN AS
925 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...HIGHS WILL RESPOND
IN KIND TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON THAT DAY.

WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON
OUR AREA. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON SPECIFICS...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE IN OUR
EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE BEST THETA E ADVECTION WILL BE
SITUATED AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. AGAIN THERE ARE
VARIATIONS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WARM LAYER ALOFT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WOULD BE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/OR
SLEET...THOUGH FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THAT AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWLY COOLING THERMAL PROFILES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW...WITH SOME RAIN IN THE
SOUTH WHERE IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S THROUGH THAT AREA.

BY MONDAY NIGHT THERMAL PROFILES WILL HAVE COOLED SUFFICIENTLY THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ALL SNOW...WITH THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...LOOKS TO DRY OUT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT PERIOD AND EVEN LONGER
AS MODELS POINT TO MOISTURE BEING LOCKED IN FOR AWHILE. PLUS WITH
WEAK FLOW AND MINIMAL MIXING ALL SPELL OUT LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING. CIGS
WILL WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH FROM MVFR TO IFR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...BUT BETTER CHANCES OF THE LOWEST CIGS DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HEITKAMP




000
FXUS63 KFSD 191132
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
532 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
CLEARING LINE.  AREAS IN EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY SEE
A LITTLE SUN TODAY AS CLEARING LINE SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY EAST.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCKED
IN STRATUS TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY BUT MOISTURE ISN`T SO
DEEP RIGHT NOW BUT MODELS DO SHOW A LITTLE DEEPENING WITH TIME
ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AT THIS
TIME...I DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTIES.  DEFINITELY ANOTHER GREY FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND THE UPWARD CLIMB
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS.  SO MORE SEASONAL HIGHS.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT...THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS AGAIN
THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A
LOOK AT WHETHER THE MOISTURE IS TRULY DEEPENING OR IS IT A MODEL
ANOMALY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING TO OUR EAST. WITH A MOIST 935 MB FLOW
CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECTING
STRATUS TO HOLD STRONG AT LEAST INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN OUR WEST ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TAKES ON A MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. SIGNALS FOR
DRIZZLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKED EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE IN
MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...SO CONFINED DRIZZLE CHANCES TO OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO RUN GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S...THEN AS
925 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...HIGHS WILL RESPOND
IN KIND TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON THAT DAY.

WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON
OUR AREA. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON SPECIFICS...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE IN OUR
EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE BEST THETA E ADVECTION WILL BE
SITUATED AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. AGAIN THERE ARE
VARIATIONS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WARM LAYER ALOFT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WOULD BE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/OR
SLEET...THOUGH FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THAT AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWLY COOLING THERMAL PROFILES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW...WITH SOME RAIN IN THE
SOUTH WHERE IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S THROUGH THAT AREA.

BY MONDAY NIGHT THERMAL PROFILES WILL HAVE COOLED SUFFICIENTLY THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ALL SNOW...WITH THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...LOOKS TO DRY OUT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT PERIOD AND EVEN LONGER
AS MODELS POINT TO MOISTURE BEING LOCKED IN FOR AWHILE. PLUS WITH
WEAK FLOW AND MINIMAL MIXING ALL SPELL OUT LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING. CIGS
WILL WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH FROM MVFR TO IFR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...BUT BETTER CHANCES OF THE LOWEST CIGS DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HEITKAMP




000
FXUS63 KFSD 191132
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
532 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
CLEARING LINE.  AREAS IN EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY SEE
A LITTLE SUN TODAY AS CLEARING LINE SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY EAST.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCKED
IN STRATUS TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY BUT MOISTURE ISN`T SO
DEEP RIGHT NOW BUT MODELS DO SHOW A LITTLE DEEPENING WITH TIME
ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AT THIS
TIME...I DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTIES.  DEFINITELY ANOTHER GREY FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND THE UPWARD CLIMB
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS.  SO MORE SEASONAL HIGHS.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT...THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS AGAIN
THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A
LOOK AT WHETHER THE MOISTURE IS TRULY DEEPENING OR IS IT A MODEL
ANOMALY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING TO OUR EAST. WITH A MOIST 935 MB FLOW
CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECTING
STRATUS TO HOLD STRONG AT LEAST INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN OUR WEST ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TAKES ON A MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. SIGNALS FOR
DRIZZLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKED EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE IN
MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...SO CONFINED DRIZZLE CHANCES TO OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO RUN GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S...THEN AS
925 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...HIGHS WILL RESPOND
IN KIND TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON THAT DAY.

WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON
OUR AREA. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON SPECIFICS...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE IN OUR
EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE BEST THETA E ADVECTION WILL BE
SITUATED AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. AGAIN THERE ARE
VARIATIONS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WARM LAYER ALOFT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WOULD BE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/OR
SLEET...THOUGH FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THAT AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWLY COOLING THERMAL PROFILES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW...WITH SOME RAIN IN THE
SOUTH WHERE IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S THROUGH THAT AREA.

BY MONDAY NIGHT THERMAL PROFILES WILL HAVE COOLED SUFFICIENTLY THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ALL SNOW...WITH THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...LOOKS TO DRY OUT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT PERIOD AND EVEN LONGER
AS MODELS POINT TO MOISTURE BEING LOCKED IN FOR AWHILE. PLUS WITH
WEAK FLOW AND MINIMAL MIXING ALL SPELL OUT LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING. CIGS
WILL WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH FROM MVFR TO IFR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...BUT BETTER CHANCES OF THE LOWEST CIGS DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HEITKAMP




000
FXUS63 KFSD 191132
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
532 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
CLEARING LINE.  AREAS IN EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY SEE
A LITTLE SUN TODAY AS CLEARING LINE SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY EAST.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCKED
IN STRATUS TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY BUT MOISTURE ISN`T SO
DEEP RIGHT NOW BUT MODELS DO SHOW A LITTLE DEEPENING WITH TIME
ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AT THIS
TIME...I DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTIES.  DEFINITELY ANOTHER GREY FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND THE UPWARD CLIMB
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS.  SO MORE SEASONAL HIGHS.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT...THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS AGAIN
THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A
LOOK AT WHETHER THE MOISTURE IS TRULY DEEPENING OR IS IT A MODEL
ANOMALY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING TO OUR EAST. WITH A MOIST 935 MB FLOW
CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECTING
STRATUS TO HOLD STRONG AT LEAST INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN OUR WEST ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TAKES ON A MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. SIGNALS FOR
DRIZZLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKED EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE IN
MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...SO CONFINED DRIZZLE CHANCES TO OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO RUN GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S...THEN AS
925 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...HIGHS WILL RESPOND
IN KIND TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON THAT DAY.

WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON
OUR AREA. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON SPECIFICS...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE IN OUR
EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE BEST THETA E ADVECTION WILL BE
SITUATED AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. AGAIN THERE ARE
VARIATIONS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WARM LAYER ALOFT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WOULD BE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/OR
SLEET...THOUGH FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THAT AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWLY COOLING THERMAL PROFILES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW...WITH SOME RAIN IN THE
SOUTH WHERE IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S THROUGH THAT AREA.

BY MONDAY NIGHT THERMAL PROFILES WILL HAVE COOLED SUFFICIENTLY THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ALL SNOW...WITH THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...LOOKS TO DRY OUT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT PERIOD AND EVEN LONGER
AS MODELS POINT TO MOISTURE BEING LOCKED IN FOR AWHILE. PLUS WITH
WEAK FLOW AND MINIMAL MIXING ALL SPELL OUT LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING. CIGS
WILL WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH FROM MVFR TO IFR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...BUT BETTER CHANCES OF THE LOWEST CIGS DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HEITKAMP




000
FXUS63 KABR 191125 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
525 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST
TODAY. FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPEARS TO BE WIDELY SPACE
ENOUGH THAT DIABATIC HEATING WILL MIX DOWN A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLEARING LINE TO PUSH INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.
FARTHER EAST...WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES AT LEAST DESPITE THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AT LEAST THERE IS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WENT MAINLY WITH
FLURRIES AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...THOUGH WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN +1 AND +3C...COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LINCHPIN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE WHAT MEAGER SUN WE
CAN PULL OFF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS CLOSING THE LOW
OFF...BUT THE GEM AND GFS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING LESS
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A BAND THAT SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA...PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...WILL STICK WITH SCHC/CHC POPS UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION
COMES INTO SIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL
REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON MONDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THAT AREA. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO FINALLY BRING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SYSTEM THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT FOR THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE STATE. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL POP TO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR THEN GETS DRAWN DOWN IN THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AFFECTING KATY AND KABR.
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KUNR 191013
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
313 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A
COMPACT WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE IS NOT
BRINGING MORE THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO NWRD SD ATTM. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MINNESOTA/GREAT LAKES
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN MT INTO THE CWA. A QUIET DAY IS
EXPECTED TODAY. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL CROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAY...BUT ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SUNSHINE IS
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPING NE FTHLS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. EVENING SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HAVE EXPANDED AREAL COVERAGE OF
POPS OVER NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...BUT WILL LEAVE AT 20 POPS AS
MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE QPF. LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE CWA BY SAT EVNG. TEMPS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAYS...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER WITH GREAT CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

EXTENDED MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND DOWNSTREAM TROF CLOSING
OFF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR TROF CLOSING OFF TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE
SUNDAY/MONDAY. .WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MID
WEEK...WITH SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WOULD BE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...WHERE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL 0-2KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT DIFFER SOME ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF BEST FORCING.
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW LATE CHRISTMAS DAY INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 191013
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
313 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A
COMPACT WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE IS NOT
BRINGING MORE THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO NWRD SD ATTM. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MINNESOTA/GREAT LAKES
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN MT INTO THE CWA. A QUIET DAY IS
EXPECTED TODAY. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL CROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAY...BUT ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SUNSHINE IS
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPING NE FTHLS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. EVENING SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HAVE EXPANDED AREAL COVERAGE OF
POPS OVER NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...BUT WILL LEAVE AT 20 POPS AS
MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE QPF. LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE CWA BY SAT EVNG. TEMPS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAYS...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER WITH GREAT CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

EXTENDED MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND DOWNSTREAM TROF CLOSING
OFF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR TROF CLOSING OFF TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE
SUNDAY/MONDAY. .WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MID
WEEK...WITH SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WOULD BE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...WHERE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL 0-2KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT DIFFER SOME ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF BEST FORCING.
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW LATE CHRISTMAS DAY INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 191013
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
313 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A
COMPACT WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE IS NOT
BRINGING MORE THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO NWRD SD ATTM. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MINNESOTA/GREAT LAKES
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN MT INTO THE CWA. A QUIET DAY IS
EXPECTED TODAY. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL CROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAY...BUT ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SUNSHINE IS
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPING NE FTHLS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. EVENING SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HAVE EXPANDED AREAL COVERAGE OF
POPS OVER NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...BUT WILL LEAVE AT 20 POPS AS
MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE QPF. LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE CWA BY SAT EVNG. TEMPS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAYS...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER WITH GREAT CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

EXTENDED MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND DOWNSTREAM TROF CLOSING
OFF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR TROF CLOSING OFF TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE
SUNDAY/MONDAY. .WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MID
WEEK...WITH SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WOULD BE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...WHERE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL 0-2KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT DIFFER SOME ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF BEST FORCING.
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW LATE CHRISTMAS DAY INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 191013
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
313 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A
COMPACT WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE IS NOT
BRINGING MORE THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO NWRD SD ATTM. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MINNESOTA/GREAT LAKES
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN MT INTO THE CWA. A QUIET DAY IS
EXPECTED TODAY. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL CROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAY...BUT ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SUNSHINE IS
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPING NE FTHLS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. EVENING SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HAVE EXPANDED AREAL COVERAGE OF
POPS OVER NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...BUT WILL LEAVE AT 20 POPS AS
MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE QPF. LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE CWA BY SAT EVNG. TEMPS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAYS...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER WITH GREAT CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

EXTENDED MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND DOWNSTREAM TROF CLOSING
OFF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR TROF CLOSING OFF TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE
SUNDAY/MONDAY. .WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MID
WEEK...WITH SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WOULD BE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...WHERE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL 0-2KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT DIFFER SOME ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF BEST FORCING.
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW LATE CHRISTMAS DAY INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 191013
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
313 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A
COMPACT WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE IS NOT
BRINGING MORE THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO NWRD SD ATTM. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MINNESOTA/GREAT LAKES
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN MT INTO THE CWA. A QUIET DAY IS
EXPECTED TODAY. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL CROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAY...BUT ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SUNSHINE IS
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPING NE FTHLS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. EVENING SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HAVE EXPANDED AREAL COVERAGE OF
POPS OVER NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...BUT WILL LEAVE AT 20 POPS AS
MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE QPF. LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE CWA BY SAT EVNG. TEMPS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAYS...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER WITH GREAT CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

EXTENDED MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND DOWNSTREAM TROF CLOSING
OFF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR TROF CLOSING OFF TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE
SUNDAY/MONDAY. .WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MID
WEEK...WITH SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WOULD BE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...WHERE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL 0-2KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT DIFFER SOME ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF BEST FORCING.
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW LATE CHRISTMAS DAY INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 191013
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
313 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A
COMPACT WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE IS NOT
BRINGING MORE THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO NWRD SD ATTM. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MINNESOTA/GREAT LAKES
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN MT INTO THE CWA. A QUIET DAY IS
EXPECTED TODAY. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL CROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAY...BUT ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SUNSHINE IS
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPING NE FTHLS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. EVENING SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HAVE EXPANDED AREAL COVERAGE OF
POPS OVER NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...BUT WILL LEAVE AT 20 POPS AS
MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE QPF. LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE CWA BY SAT EVNG. TEMPS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAYS...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER WITH GREAT CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

EXTENDED MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND DOWNSTREAM TROF CLOSING
OFF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR TROF CLOSING OFF TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE
SUNDAY/MONDAY. .WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MID
WEEK...WITH SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WOULD BE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...WHERE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL 0-2KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT DIFFER SOME ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF BEST FORCING.
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW LATE CHRISTMAS DAY INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7








000
FXUS63 KFSD 190919
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
CLEARING LINE.  AREAS IN EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY SEE
A LITTLE SUN TODAY AS CLEARING LINE SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY EAST.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCKED
IN STRATUS TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY BUT MOISTURE ISN`T SO
DEEP RIGHT NOW BUT MODELS DO SHOW A LITTLE DEEPENING WITH TIME
ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AT THIS
TIME...I DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTIES.  DEFINITELY ANOTHER GREY FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND THE UPWARD CLIMB
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS.  SO MORE SEASONAL HIGHS.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT...THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS AGAIN
THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A
LOOK AT WHETHER THE MOISTURE IS TRULY DEEPENING OR IS IT A MODEL
ANOMALY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING TO OUR EAST. WITH A MOIST 935 MB FLOW
CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECTING
STRATUS TO HOLD STRONG AT LEAST INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN OUR WEST ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TAKES ON A MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. SIGNALS FOR
DRIZZLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKED EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE IN
MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...SO CONFINED DRIZZLE CHANCES TO OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO RUN GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S...THEN AS
925 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...HIGHS WILL RESPOND
IN KIND TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON THAT DAY.

WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON
OUR AREA. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON SPECIFICS...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE IN OUR
EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE BEST THETA E ADVECTION WILL BE
SITUATED AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. AGAIN THERE ARE
VARIATIONS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WARM LAYER ALOFT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WOULD BE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/OR
SLEET...THOUGH FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THAT AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWLY COOLING THERMAL PROFILES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW...WITH SOME RAIN IN THE
SOUTH WHERE IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S THROUGH THAT AREA.

BY MONDAY NIGHT THERMAL PROFILES WILL HAVE COOLED SUFFICIENTLY THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ALL SNOW...WITH THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...LOOKS TO DRY OUT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUDS WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.
LATEST RAP/NAM CONTINUE TO HOLD SUB 2K FT CEILINGS IN THE FSD/SUX
TERMINALS WELL INTO FRIDAY. FURTHER WEST...A BIT MORE QUESTIONS
EXIST AS THE EDGE OF STRATUS MAY APPROACH HON BY DAYBREAK. MORE
CONCERNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND VLIFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ON THE EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK AND MOVE INTO HON FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING.

WILL ADVERTISE NO IMPROVEMENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF
GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 190919
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
CLEARING LINE.  AREAS IN EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY SEE
A LITTLE SUN TODAY AS CLEARING LINE SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY EAST.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCKED
IN STRATUS TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY BUT MOISTURE ISN`T SO
DEEP RIGHT NOW BUT MODELS DO SHOW A LITTLE DEEPENING WITH TIME
ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AT THIS
TIME...I DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTIES.  DEFINITELY ANOTHER GREY FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND THE UPWARD CLIMB
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS.  SO MORE SEASONAL HIGHS.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT...THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS AGAIN
THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A
LOOK AT WHETHER THE MOISTURE IS TRULY DEEPENING OR IS IT A MODEL
ANOMALY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING TO OUR EAST. WITH A MOIST 935 MB FLOW
CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECTING
STRATUS TO HOLD STRONG AT LEAST INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN OUR WEST ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TAKES ON A MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. SIGNALS FOR
DRIZZLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKED EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE IN
MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...SO CONFINED DRIZZLE CHANCES TO OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO RUN GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S...THEN AS
925 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...HIGHS WILL RESPOND
IN KIND TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON THAT DAY.

WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON
OUR AREA. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON SPECIFICS...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE IN OUR
EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE BEST THETA E ADVECTION WILL BE
SITUATED AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. AGAIN THERE ARE
VARIATIONS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WARM LAYER ALOFT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WOULD BE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/OR
SLEET...THOUGH FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THAT AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWLY COOLING THERMAL PROFILES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW...WITH SOME RAIN IN THE
SOUTH WHERE IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S THROUGH THAT AREA.

BY MONDAY NIGHT THERMAL PROFILES WILL HAVE COOLED SUFFICIENTLY THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ALL SNOW...WITH THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...LOOKS TO DRY OUT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUDS WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.
LATEST RAP/NAM CONTINUE TO HOLD SUB 2K FT CEILINGS IN THE FSD/SUX
TERMINALS WELL INTO FRIDAY. FURTHER WEST...A BIT MORE QUESTIONS
EXIST AS THE EDGE OF STRATUS MAY APPROACH HON BY DAYBREAK. MORE
CONCERNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND VLIFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ON THE EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK AND MOVE INTO HON FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING.

WILL ADVERTISE NO IMPROVEMENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF
GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KFSD 190919
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
CLEARING LINE.  AREAS IN EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY SEE
A LITTLE SUN TODAY AS CLEARING LINE SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY EAST.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCKED
IN STRATUS TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY BUT MOISTURE ISN`T SO
DEEP RIGHT NOW BUT MODELS DO SHOW A LITTLE DEEPENING WITH TIME
ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AT THIS
TIME...I DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTIES.  DEFINITELY ANOTHER GREY FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND THE UPWARD CLIMB
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS.  SO MORE SEASONAL HIGHS.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT...THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS AGAIN
THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A
LOOK AT WHETHER THE MOISTURE IS TRULY DEEPENING OR IS IT A MODEL
ANOMALY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING TO OUR EAST. WITH A MOIST 935 MB FLOW
CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECTING
STRATUS TO HOLD STRONG AT LEAST INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN OUR WEST ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TAKES ON A MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. SIGNALS FOR
DRIZZLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKED EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE IN
MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...SO CONFINED DRIZZLE CHANCES TO OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO RUN GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S...THEN AS
925 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...HIGHS WILL RESPOND
IN KIND TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON THAT DAY.

WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON
OUR AREA. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON SPECIFICS...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE IN OUR
EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE BEST THETA E ADVECTION WILL BE
SITUATED AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. AGAIN THERE ARE
VARIATIONS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WARM LAYER ALOFT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WOULD BE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/OR
SLEET...THOUGH FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THAT AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWLY COOLING THERMAL PROFILES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW...WITH SOME RAIN IN THE
SOUTH WHERE IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S THROUGH THAT AREA.

BY MONDAY NIGHT THERMAL PROFILES WILL HAVE COOLED SUFFICIENTLY THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ALL SNOW...WITH THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...LOOKS TO DRY OUT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUDS WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.
LATEST RAP/NAM CONTINUE TO HOLD SUB 2K FT CEILINGS IN THE FSD/SUX
TERMINALS WELL INTO FRIDAY. FURTHER WEST...A BIT MORE QUESTIONS
EXIST AS THE EDGE OF STRATUS MAY APPROACH HON BY DAYBREAK. MORE
CONCERNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND VLIFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ON THE EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK AND MOVE INTO HON FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING.

WILL ADVERTISE NO IMPROVEMENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF
GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 190919
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
CLEARING LINE.  AREAS IN EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY SEE
A LITTLE SUN TODAY AS CLEARING LINE SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY EAST.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCKED
IN STRATUS TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY BUT MOISTURE ISN`T SO
DEEP RIGHT NOW BUT MODELS DO SHOW A LITTLE DEEPENING WITH TIME
ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AT THIS
TIME...I DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTIES.  DEFINITELY ANOTHER GREY FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND THE UPWARD CLIMB
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS.  SO MORE SEASONAL HIGHS.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT...THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS AGAIN
THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A
LOOK AT WHETHER THE MOISTURE IS TRULY DEEPENING OR IS IT A MODEL
ANOMALY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING TO OUR EAST. WITH A MOIST 935 MB FLOW
CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECTING
STRATUS TO HOLD STRONG AT LEAST INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN OUR WEST ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TAKES ON A MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. SIGNALS FOR
DRIZZLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKED EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE IN
MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...SO CONFINED DRIZZLE CHANCES TO OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO RUN GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S...THEN AS
925 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...HIGHS WILL RESPOND
IN KIND TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON THAT DAY.

WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON
OUR AREA. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON SPECIFICS...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE IN OUR
EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE BEST THETA E ADVECTION WILL BE
SITUATED AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. AGAIN THERE ARE
VARIATIONS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WARM LAYER ALOFT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WOULD BE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/OR
SLEET...THOUGH FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THAT AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWLY COOLING THERMAL PROFILES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW...WITH SOME RAIN IN THE
SOUTH WHERE IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S THROUGH THAT AREA.

BY MONDAY NIGHT THERMAL PROFILES WILL HAVE COOLED SUFFICIENTLY THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ALL SNOW...WITH THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...LOOKS TO DRY OUT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUDS WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.
LATEST RAP/NAM CONTINUE TO HOLD SUB 2K FT CEILINGS IN THE FSD/SUX
TERMINALS WELL INTO FRIDAY. FURTHER WEST...A BIT MORE QUESTIONS
EXIST AS THE EDGE OF STRATUS MAY APPROACH HON BY DAYBREAK. MORE
CONCERNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND VLIFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ON THE EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK AND MOVE INTO HON FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING.

WILL ADVERTISE NO IMPROVEMENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF
GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 190919
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
CLEARING LINE.  AREAS IN EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY SEE
A LITTLE SUN TODAY AS CLEARING LINE SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY EAST.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCKED
IN STRATUS TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY BUT MOISTURE ISN`T SO
DEEP RIGHT NOW BUT MODELS DO SHOW A LITTLE DEEPENING WITH TIME
ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AT THIS
TIME...I DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTIES.  DEFINITELY ANOTHER GREY FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND THE UPWARD CLIMB
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS.  SO MORE SEASONAL HIGHS.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT...THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS AGAIN
THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A
LOOK AT WHETHER THE MOISTURE IS TRULY DEEPENING OR IS IT A MODEL
ANOMALY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING TO OUR EAST. WITH A MOIST 935 MB FLOW
CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECTING
STRATUS TO HOLD STRONG AT LEAST INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN OUR WEST ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TAKES ON A MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. SIGNALS FOR
DRIZZLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKED EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE IN
MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...SO CONFINED DRIZZLE CHANCES TO OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO RUN GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S...THEN AS
925 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...HIGHS WILL RESPOND
IN KIND TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON THAT DAY.

WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON
OUR AREA. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON SPECIFICS...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE IN OUR
EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE BEST THETA E ADVECTION WILL BE
SITUATED AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. AGAIN THERE ARE
VARIATIONS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WARM LAYER ALOFT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WOULD BE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/OR
SLEET...THOUGH FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THAT AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWLY COOLING THERMAL PROFILES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW...WITH SOME RAIN IN THE
SOUTH WHERE IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S THROUGH THAT AREA.

BY MONDAY NIGHT THERMAL PROFILES WILL HAVE COOLED SUFFICIENTLY THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ALL SNOW...WITH THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...LOOKS TO DRY OUT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUDS WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.
LATEST RAP/NAM CONTINUE TO HOLD SUB 2K FT CEILINGS IN THE FSD/SUX
TERMINALS WELL INTO FRIDAY. FURTHER WEST...A BIT MORE QUESTIONS
EXIST AS THE EDGE OF STRATUS MAY APPROACH HON BY DAYBREAK. MORE
CONCERNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND VLIFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ON THE EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK AND MOVE INTO HON FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING.

WILL ADVERTISE NO IMPROVEMENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF
GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 190919
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
CLEARING LINE.  AREAS IN EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY SEE
A LITTLE SUN TODAY AS CLEARING LINE SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY EAST.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCKED
IN STRATUS TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY BUT MOISTURE ISN`T SO
DEEP RIGHT NOW BUT MODELS DO SHOW A LITTLE DEEPENING WITH TIME
ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AT THIS
TIME...I DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTIES.  DEFINITELY ANOTHER GREY FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND THE UPWARD CLIMB
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS.  SO MORE SEASONAL HIGHS.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT...THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS AGAIN
THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A
LOOK AT WHETHER THE MOISTURE IS TRULY DEEPENING OR IS IT A MODEL
ANOMALY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING TO OUR EAST. WITH A MOIST 935 MB FLOW
CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECTING
STRATUS TO HOLD STRONG AT LEAST INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN OUR WEST ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TAKES ON A MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. SIGNALS FOR
DRIZZLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKED EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE IN
MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...SO CONFINED DRIZZLE CHANCES TO OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO RUN GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S...THEN AS
925 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...HIGHS WILL RESPOND
IN KIND TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON THAT DAY.

WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON
OUR AREA. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON SPECIFICS...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE IN OUR
EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE BEST THETA E ADVECTION WILL BE
SITUATED AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. AGAIN THERE ARE
VARIATIONS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WARM LAYER ALOFT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WOULD BE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/OR
SLEET...THOUGH FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THAT AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWLY COOLING THERMAL PROFILES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW...WITH SOME RAIN IN THE
SOUTH WHERE IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S THROUGH THAT AREA.

BY MONDAY NIGHT THERMAL PROFILES WILL HAVE COOLED SUFFICIENTLY THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ALL SNOW...WITH THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...LOOKS TO DRY OUT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUDS WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.
LATEST RAP/NAM CONTINUE TO HOLD SUB 2K FT CEILINGS IN THE FSD/SUX
TERMINALS WELL INTO FRIDAY. FURTHER WEST...A BIT MORE QUESTIONS
EXIST AS THE EDGE OF STRATUS MAY APPROACH HON BY DAYBREAK. MORE
CONCERNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND VLIFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ON THE EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK AND MOVE INTO HON FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING.

WILL ADVERTISE NO IMPROVEMENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF
GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KABR 190916
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY

STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST
TODAY. FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPEARS TO BE WIDELY SPACE
ENOUGH THAT DIABATIC HEATING WILL MIX DOWN A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLEARING LINE TO PUSH INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.
FARTHER EAST...WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES AT LEAST DESPITE THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AT LEAST THERE IS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WENT MAINLY WITH
FLURRIES AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...THOUGH WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN +1 AND +3C...COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LINCHPIN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE WHAT MEAGER SUN WE
CAN PULL OFF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS CLOSING THE LOW
OFF...BUT THE GEM AND GFS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING LESS
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A BAND THAT SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA...PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...WILL STICK WITH SCHC/CHC POPS UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION
COMES INTO SIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL
REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON MONDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THAT AREA. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO FINALLY BRING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SYSTEM THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT FOR THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE STATE. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL POP TO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR THEN GETS DRAWN DOWN IN THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OFF AT KPIR/KMBG. AS A RESULT...MVFR
LIGHT FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AT KPIR...WHICH COULD SPIRAL INTO
IFR FOG BETWEEN NOW AND 14Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A SIMILAR
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING AT KMBG.

IF THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW STRATUS WORKS AS FAR EAST AS THE LATEST
RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS...KABR/KATY WOULD BE CLEARING OFF
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE WESTERN EDGE OF
MVFR/IFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO CLEAR OFF AT KABR BY
10Z...PROVIDED THE CURRENT SPEED OF MOVEMENT TO THE CLOUDS DOESN`T
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. KABR COULD ALSO BE DEALING WITH SOME
MVFR LIGHT FOG FORMATION ONCE THE STRATUS CLOUDS CLEAR OFF.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 190916
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY

STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST
TODAY. FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPEARS TO BE WIDELY SPACE
ENOUGH THAT DIABATIC HEATING WILL MIX DOWN A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLEARING LINE TO PUSH INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.
FARTHER EAST...WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES AT LEAST DESPITE THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AT LEAST THERE IS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WENT MAINLY WITH
FLURRIES AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...THOUGH WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN +1 AND +3C...COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LINCHPIN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE WHAT MEAGER SUN WE
CAN PULL OFF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS CLOSING THE LOW
OFF...BUT THE GEM AND GFS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING LESS
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A BAND THAT SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA...PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...WILL STICK WITH SCHC/CHC POPS UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION
COMES INTO SIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL
REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON MONDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THAT AREA. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO FINALLY BRING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SYSTEM THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT FOR THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE STATE. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL POP TO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR THEN GETS DRAWN DOWN IN THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OFF AT KPIR/KMBG. AS A RESULT...MVFR
LIGHT FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AT KPIR...WHICH COULD SPIRAL INTO
IFR FOG BETWEEN NOW AND 14Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A SIMILAR
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING AT KMBG.

IF THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW STRATUS WORKS AS FAR EAST AS THE LATEST
RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS...KABR/KATY WOULD BE CLEARING OFF
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE WESTERN EDGE OF
MVFR/IFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO CLEAR OFF AT KABR BY
10Z...PROVIDED THE CURRENT SPEED OF MOVEMENT TO THE CLOUDS DOESN`T
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. KABR COULD ALSO BE DEALING WITH SOME
MVFR LIGHT FOG FORMATION ONCE THE STRATUS CLOUDS CLEAR OFF.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 190916
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY

STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST
TODAY. FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPEARS TO BE WIDELY SPACE
ENOUGH THAT DIABATIC HEATING WILL MIX DOWN A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLEARING LINE TO PUSH INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.
FARTHER EAST...WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES AT LEAST DESPITE THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AT LEAST THERE IS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WENT MAINLY WITH
FLURRIES AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...THOUGH WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN +1 AND +3C...COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LINCHPIN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE WHAT MEAGER SUN WE
CAN PULL OFF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS CLOSING THE LOW
OFF...BUT THE GEM AND GFS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING LESS
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A BAND THAT SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA...PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...WILL STICK WITH SCHC/CHC POPS UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION
COMES INTO SIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL
REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON MONDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THAT AREA. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO FINALLY BRING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SYSTEM THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT FOR THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE STATE. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL POP TO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR THEN GETS DRAWN DOWN IN THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OFF AT KPIR/KMBG. AS A RESULT...MVFR
LIGHT FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AT KPIR...WHICH COULD SPIRAL INTO
IFR FOG BETWEEN NOW AND 14Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A SIMILAR
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING AT KMBG.

IF THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW STRATUS WORKS AS FAR EAST AS THE LATEST
RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS...KABR/KATY WOULD BE CLEARING OFF
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE WESTERN EDGE OF
MVFR/IFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO CLEAR OFF AT KABR BY
10Z...PROVIDED THE CURRENT SPEED OF MOVEMENT TO THE CLOUDS DOESN`T
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. KABR COULD ALSO BE DEALING WITH SOME
MVFR LIGHT FOG FORMATION ONCE THE STRATUS CLOUDS CLEAR OFF.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 190916
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY

STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST
TODAY. FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPEARS TO BE WIDELY SPACE
ENOUGH THAT DIABATIC HEATING WILL MIX DOWN A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLEARING LINE TO PUSH INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.
FARTHER EAST...WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES AT LEAST DESPITE THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AT LEAST THERE IS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WENT MAINLY WITH
FLURRIES AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...THOUGH WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN +1 AND +3C...COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LINCHPIN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE WHAT MEAGER SUN WE
CAN PULL OFF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS CLOSING THE LOW
OFF...BUT THE GEM AND GFS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING LESS
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A BAND THAT SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA...PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...WILL STICK WITH SCHC/CHC POPS UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION
COMES INTO SIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL
REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON MONDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THAT AREA. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO FINALLY BRING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SYSTEM THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT FOR THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE STATE. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL POP TO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR THEN GETS DRAWN DOWN IN THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OFF AT KPIR/KMBG. AS A RESULT...MVFR
LIGHT FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AT KPIR...WHICH COULD SPIRAL INTO
IFR FOG BETWEEN NOW AND 14Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A SIMILAR
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING AT KMBG.

IF THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW STRATUS WORKS AS FAR EAST AS THE LATEST
RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS...KABR/KATY WOULD BE CLEARING OFF
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE WESTERN EDGE OF
MVFR/IFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO CLEAR OFF AT KABR BY
10Z...PROVIDED THE CURRENT SPEED OF MOVEMENT TO THE CLOUDS DOESN`T
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. KABR COULD ALSO BE DEALING WITH SOME
MVFR LIGHT FOG FORMATION ONCE THE STRATUS CLOUDS CLEAR OFF.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 190536 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. A REPORT FROM THE HIGHWAY PATROL...AS WELL AS DOT WEB-
CAMS SUGGEST THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT HAVING AN IMPACT OF ROAD
CONDITIONS. THUS NO HEADLINE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY 3Z WITH PCPN ENDING BY THEN. THAT
SAID...THE RAPID REFRESH AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST THE LOW STRATUS
DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THIS CWA DRY AS MOST OF THE LLM AND
LIFT IS LOCATED IN NORTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MEAN PRECIP
STARTS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. IT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
IN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND CAA BEHIND THE LOW...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW TOTAL BY TUE MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE AND WED MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD. MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. 0Z RUNS HAD PRECIP MOVING UP INTO THE DAKOTAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY BUT SUBSEQUENT 12Z RUNS ARE KEEPING ALL PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR NOW STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.


&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OFF AT KPIR/KMBG. AS A RESULT...MVFR
LIGHT FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AT KPIR...WHICH COULD SPIRAL INTO
IFR FOG BETWEEN NOW AND 14Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A SIMILAR
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING AT KMBG.

IF THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW STRATUS WORKS AS FAR EAST AS THE LATEST
RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS...KABR/KATY WOULD BE CLEARING OFF
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE WESTERN EDGE OF
MVFR/IFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO CLEAR OFF AT KABR BY
10Z...PROVIDED THE CURRENT SPEED OF MOVEMENT TO THE CLOUDS DOESN`T
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. KABR COULD ALSO BE DEALING WITH SOME
MVFR LIGHT FOG FORMATION ONCE THE STRATUS CLOUDS CLEAR OFF.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 190536 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. A REPORT FROM THE HIGHWAY PATROL...AS WELL AS DOT WEB-
CAMS SUGGEST THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT HAVING AN IMPACT OF ROAD
CONDITIONS. THUS NO HEADLINE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY 3Z WITH PCPN ENDING BY THEN. THAT
SAID...THE RAPID REFRESH AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST THE LOW STRATUS
DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THIS CWA DRY AS MOST OF THE LLM AND
LIFT IS LOCATED IN NORTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MEAN PRECIP
STARTS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. IT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
IN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND CAA BEHIND THE LOW...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW TOTAL BY TUE MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE AND WED MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD. MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. 0Z RUNS HAD PRECIP MOVING UP INTO THE DAKOTAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY BUT SUBSEQUENT 12Z RUNS ARE KEEPING ALL PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR NOW STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.


&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OFF AT KPIR/KMBG. AS A RESULT...MVFR
LIGHT FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AT KPIR...WHICH COULD SPIRAL INTO
IFR FOG BETWEEN NOW AND 14Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A SIMILAR
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING AT KMBG.

IF THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW STRATUS WORKS AS FAR EAST AS THE LATEST
RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS...KABR/KATY WOULD BE CLEARING OFF
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE WESTERN EDGE OF
MVFR/IFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO CLEAR OFF AT KABR BY
10Z...PROVIDED THE CURRENT SPEED OF MOVEMENT TO THE CLOUDS DOESN`T
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. KABR COULD ALSO BE DEALING WITH SOME
MVFR LIGHT FOG FORMATION ONCE THE STRATUS CLOUDS CLEAR OFF.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 190536 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. A REPORT FROM THE HIGHWAY PATROL...AS WELL AS DOT WEB-
CAMS SUGGEST THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT HAVING AN IMPACT OF ROAD
CONDITIONS. THUS NO HEADLINE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY 3Z WITH PCPN ENDING BY THEN. THAT
SAID...THE RAPID REFRESH AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST THE LOW STRATUS
DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THIS CWA DRY AS MOST OF THE LLM AND
LIFT IS LOCATED IN NORTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MEAN PRECIP
STARTS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. IT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
IN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND CAA BEHIND THE LOW...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW TOTAL BY TUE MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE AND WED MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD. MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. 0Z RUNS HAD PRECIP MOVING UP INTO THE DAKOTAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY BUT SUBSEQUENT 12Z RUNS ARE KEEPING ALL PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR NOW STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.


&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OFF AT KPIR/KMBG. AS A RESULT...MVFR
LIGHT FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AT KPIR...WHICH COULD SPIRAL INTO
IFR FOG BETWEEN NOW AND 14Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A SIMILAR
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING AT KMBG.

IF THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW STRATUS WORKS AS FAR EAST AS THE LATEST
RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS...KABR/KATY WOULD BE CLEARING OFF
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE WESTERN EDGE OF
MVFR/IFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO CLEAR OFF AT KABR BY
10Z...PROVIDED THE CURRENT SPEED OF MOVEMENT TO THE CLOUDS DOESN`T
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. KABR COULD ALSO BE DEALING WITH SOME
MVFR LIGHT FOG FORMATION ONCE THE STRATUS CLOUDS CLEAR OFF.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 190536 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. A REPORT FROM THE HIGHWAY PATROL...AS WELL AS DOT WEB-
CAMS SUGGEST THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT HAVING AN IMPACT OF ROAD
CONDITIONS. THUS NO HEADLINE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY 3Z WITH PCPN ENDING BY THEN. THAT
SAID...THE RAPID REFRESH AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST THE LOW STRATUS
DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THIS CWA DRY AS MOST OF THE LLM AND
LIFT IS LOCATED IN NORTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MEAN PRECIP
STARTS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. IT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
IN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND CAA BEHIND THE LOW...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW TOTAL BY TUE MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE AND WED MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD. MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. 0Z RUNS HAD PRECIP MOVING UP INTO THE DAKOTAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY BUT SUBSEQUENT 12Z RUNS ARE KEEPING ALL PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR NOW STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.


&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OFF AT KPIR/KMBG. AS A RESULT...MVFR
LIGHT FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AT KPIR...WHICH COULD SPIRAL INTO
IFR FOG BETWEEN NOW AND 14Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A SIMILAR
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING AT KMBG.

IF THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW STRATUS WORKS AS FAR EAST AS THE LATEST
RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS...KABR/KATY WOULD BE CLEARING OFF
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE WESTERN EDGE OF
MVFR/IFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO CLEAR OFF AT KABR BY
10Z...PROVIDED THE CURRENT SPEED OF MOVEMENT TO THE CLOUDS DOESN`T
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. KABR COULD ALSO BE DEALING WITH SOME
MVFR LIGHT FOG FORMATION ONCE THE STRATUS CLOUDS CLEAR OFF.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 190450
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1050 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH THE CLOUD DECK HANGING IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1000-1500
FEET...THE CLOUD DECK IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO GET DROPLET PRODUCTION. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED PRECIP THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...AM STILL CONCERNED ABOUT FOG POTENTIAL
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BOTH HI RES HRRR AND THE RAP
SUGGEST FOG POTENTIAL...SO HAVE RAISED FOG MENTION AFTER 06Z
WELL INTO FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

STRATUS CURRENTLY COVERING THE ENTIRE REGION...AND THINK THE CLOUDS
STAY LOCKED IN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. CLEARING LINE IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PROBABLY APPROACH OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS
SUCH AS GREGORY AND BRULE COUNTIES. SO COULD SEE SOME CLEARING THERE
LATER TONIGHT...AND SOME SUN IN THOSE LOCATIONS TOMORROW. THIS IS
THE AREA THAT COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT IF THEY
ARE ABLE TO CLEAR...SO ADDED IN FOG MENTION. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL STAY LOCKED IN THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH NOTHING
ABLE TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER...RAISED LOWS TONIGHT...AS DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO FALL MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS.

ONE QUESTION IS WHETHER WE ARE ABLE TO GET ANY FLURRIES OUT OF THE
STRATUS TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE LAYER DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR
THIS TO BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH AND SATURATION BOTH
SEEM BORDERLINE. EXPECT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND
-7C TO -10C...RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF ICE PRODUCTION. THUS CAN NOT RULE
OUT A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS TO
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO THINK THE LIGHT
PRECIP THREAT SHOULD WANE BY MORNING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK THAT EVEN IF WE DO GET FREEZING
DRIZZLE...IT WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH OF AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE CLOUDY BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TOMORROW. CLOUDS
WILL PREVENT US FROM WARMING TOO MUCH...BUT STILL THINKING WE GET
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW STRATUS TO THE BULK
OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
DECEASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S AND MAY SOAR EVEN HIGHER IF SUBSTANTIAL
CLEARING DOES OCCUR. WITHOUT MUCH LIFT IN THE CLOUD
LAYER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL...BUT WITH CLOUD TOPS
TOO WARM FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...FLURRIES ARE NOT EXPECTED. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD DEPTH IS A BIT TOO MARGINAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS
OF NORTHWEST IOWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AT THIS TIME...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

POTENT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
DIGS INTO NORTH DAKOTA. STILL LOOKING AT SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PRECIPITATION TIMING IS SOMEWHAT LOW. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE AN INITIAL WAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE GEM AND NAM AROUND 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS.
WITH THIS WAVE SOME BROAD LIFT NOSES INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD ALLOW
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE THE MILD AIR ALOFT ERODES. EXPECT A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE. WITH THE BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO OUR EAST...ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND PRELIMINARILY IT LOOKS LIKE
SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY MINIMAL.

SECONDARY WAVE FOLLOWS QUICKLY ON MONDAY...SLOWS AND DEEPENS OVER
THE MID AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM
IS THE OUTLIER WITH A WEAKER OPEN WAVE AND WAS THEREFORE DISCARDED.
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW
CENTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. IT SLOWLY WOBBLES OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION IMPACTING OUR AREA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. WITH A MORE EASTERN TRACK...THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION FOR US WILL BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX ON MONDAY TO SWITCH ENTIRELY TO
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
MILD IN THE 30S...AND COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
TUESDAY.

STRATUS CLOUDS STICK AROUND THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE DIVING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN HALF. COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION
MID WEEK DROPPING READINGS BACK BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUDS WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.
LATEST RAP/NAM CONTINUE TO HOLD SUB 2K FT CEILINGS IN THE FSD/SUX
TERMINALS WELL INTO FRIDAY. FURTHER WEST...A BIT MORE QUESTIONS
EXIST AS THE EDGE OF STRATUS MAY APPROACH HON BY DAYBREAK. MORE
CONCERNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND VLIFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ON THE EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK AND MOVE INTO HON FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING.

WILL ADVERTISE NO IMPROVEMENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF
GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KFSD 190450
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1050 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH THE CLOUD DECK HANGING IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1000-1500
FEET...THE CLOUD DECK IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO GET DROPLET PRODUCTION. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED PRECIP THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...AM STILL CONCERNED ABOUT FOG POTENTIAL
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BOTH HI RES HRRR AND THE RAP
SUGGEST FOG POTENTIAL...SO HAVE RAISED FOG MENTION AFTER 06Z
WELL INTO FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

STRATUS CURRENTLY COVERING THE ENTIRE REGION...AND THINK THE CLOUDS
STAY LOCKED IN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. CLEARING LINE IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PROBABLY APPROACH OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS
SUCH AS GREGORY AND BRULE COUNTIES. SO COULD SEE SOME CLEARING THERE
LATER TONIGHT...AND SOME SUN IN THOSE LOCATIONS TOMORROW. THIS IS
THE AREA THAT COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT IF THEY
ARE ABLE TO CLEAR...SO ADDED IN FOG MENTION. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL STAY LOCKED IN THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH NOTHING
ABLE TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER...RAISED LOWS TONIGHT...AS DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO FALL MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS.

ONE QUESTION IS WHETHER WE ARE ABLE TO GET ANY FLURRIES OUT OF THE
STRATUS TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE LAYER DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR
THIS TO BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH AND SATURATION BOTH
SEEM BORDERLINE. EXPECT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND
-7C TO -10C...RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF ICE PRODUCTION. THUS CAN NOT RULE
OUT A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS TO
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO THINK THE LIGHT
PRECIP THREAT SHOULD WANE BY MORNING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK THAT EVEN IF WE DO GET FREEZING
DRIZZLE...IT WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH OF AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE CLOUDY BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TOMORROW. CLOUDS
WILL PREVENT US FROM WARMING TOO MUCH...BUT STILL THINKING WE GET
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW STRATUS TO THE BULK
OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
DECEASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S AND MAY SOAR EVEN HIGHER IF SUBSTANTIAL
CLEARING DOES OCCUR. WITHOUT MUCH LIFT IN THE CLOUD
LAYER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL...BUT WITH CLOUD TOPS
TOO WARM FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...FLURRIES ARE NOT EXPECTED. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD DEPTH IS A BIT TOO MARGINAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS
OF NORTHWEST IOWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AT THIS TIME...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

POTENT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
DIGS INTO NORTH DAKOTA. STILL LOOKING AT SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PRECIPITATION TIMING IS SOMEWHAT LOW. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE AN INITIAL WAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE GEM AND NAM AROUND 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS.
WITH THIS WAVE SOME BROAD LIFT NOSES INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD ALLOW
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE THE MILD AIR ALOFT ERODES. EXPECT A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE. WITH THE BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO OUR EAST...ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND PRELIMINARILY IT LOOKS LIKE
SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY MINIMAL.

SECONDARY WAVE FOLLOWS QUICKLY ON MONDAY...SLOWS AND DEEPENS OVER
THE MID AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM
IS THE OUTLIER WITH A WEAKER OPEN WAVE AND WAS THEREFORE DISCARDED.
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW
CENTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. IT SLOWLY WOBBLES OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION IMPACTING OUR AREA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. WITH A MORE EASTERN TRACK...THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION FOR US WILL BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX ON MONDAY TO SWITCH ENTIRELY TO
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
MILD IN THE 30S...AND COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
TUESDAY.

STRATUS CLOUDS STICK AROUND THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE DIVING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN HALF. COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION
MID WEEK DROPPING READINGS BACK BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUDS WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.
LATEST RAP/NAM CONTINUE TO HOLD SUB 2K FT CEILINGS IN THE FSD/SUX
TERMINALS WELL INTO FRIDAY. FURTHER WEST...A BIT MORE QUESTIONS
EXIST AS THE EDGE OF STRATUS MAY APPROACH HON BY DAYBREAK. MORE
CONCERNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND VLIFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ON THE EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK AND MOVE INTO HON FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING.

WILL ADVERTISE NO IMPROVEMENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF
GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KUNR 190423
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
923 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 731 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

PATCHY FOG IS FORMING NEAR THE WRN EDGE OF STRATUS THAT IS SLOWLY
PUSHING EAST OF THE CWFA. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO OUR FAR ERN ZONES
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY CLEAR A BIT EARLIER
WITH DRIER SW/W FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
ERODING OF THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN S
DAKOTA...WITH MOST OF THE CWA NOW SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY INTO THE 20S AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. TOMORROW A WEEK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AND EXPECT ONLY SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THIS
SHOULD NOT IMPEDE MUCH ON WARMING WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE MID RANGE OF THE FORECAST DEAL WITH
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING SATURDAY MORNING AND WITH
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO THE PATTERN SHIFT FOR NEXT WEEK AS IT TURNS ACTIVE FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC CROSSING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH DRY AS THERE IS A LARGE LACK OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE STILL WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM
AFTER CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TO BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF WYOMING SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS A
CLEAR DRY LAYER JUST OFF THE SURFACE SO MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
THE NAM IS NOT AS ROBUST WITH THE DRY AIR BUT WOULD INDICATE THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO AT LEAST INCLUDE A SLIGHT MENTION
OF SNOW SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLIGHT MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BEHIND THE WEAK PACIFIC FRONT THAT MOVES THOUGH SATURDAY MORNING
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL BRING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO RISE INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A QUESTION WITH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IF AND/OR HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THE SNOW COVER WILL IMPACT
TEMPERATURES. KEPT HIGHS A BIT COOLER WHERE SNOWPACK EXISTS...WHILE
OTHER AREAS SHOULD EASILY RISE INTO THE 30S AND 40S.

BY MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES
WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A FAIRLY DEEP
TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE WHICH LOOKS TO
STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS MULTIPLE WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PUSH OVER THE RIDGE AND PASS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS IS PROBLEMATIC AS IS
TYPICALLY SEEN IN THESE PATTERNS SO IT IS QUITE DIFFICULT TRYING TO
PINPOINT WHEN THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE. THIS
LEADS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MOST DAYS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW THOUGH...WILL GET UPSLOPE FLOW
OVER THE BLACK HILLS MUCH OF THE PERIOD SO AS LONG AS THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL GET SNOW TO DEVELOP AND THESE AREAS WILL
MAINTAIN THE MORE CONSISTENT AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AMOUNTS DON/T LOOK SIGNIFICANT WITH ANY OF THESE QUICK HITTING
SYSTEMS AT THIS POINT SO THE CURRENT FORECAST JUST HAS LIGHT AMOUNTS
CURRENTLY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MODELS ARE DIGGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. IF THIS HOLDS OUT...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONE THING THAT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING OFF BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS...AND COLDER BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 921 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH KRAP AND KGCC EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH PATCHY IFR FOG ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN THROUGH
CNTRL SD WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 190423
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
923 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 731 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

PATCHY FOG IS FORMING NEAR THE WRN EDGE OF STRATUS THAT IS SLOWLY
PUSHING EAST OF THE CWFA. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO OUR FAR ERN ZONES
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY CLEAR A BIT EARLIER
WITH DRIER SW/W FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
ERODING OF THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN S
DAKOTA...WITH MOST OF THE CWA NOW SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY INTO THE 20S AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. TOMORROW A WEEK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AND EXPECT ONLY SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THIS
SHOULD NOT IMPEDE MUCH ON WARMING WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE MID RANGE OF THE FORECAST DEAL WITH
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING SATURDAY MORNING AND WITH
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO THE PATTERN SHIFT FOR NEXT WEEK AS IT TURNS ACTIVE FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC CROSSING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH DRY AS THERE IS A LARGE LACK OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE STILL WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM
AFTER CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TO BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF WYOMING SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS A
CLEAR DRY LAYER JUST OFF THE SURFACE SO MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
THE NAM IS NOT AS ROBUST WITH THE DRY AIR BUT WOULD INDICATE THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO AT LEAST INCLUDE A SLIGHT MENTION
OF SNOW SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLIGHT MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BEHIND THE WEAK PACIFIC FRONT THAT MOVES THOUGH SATURDAY MORNING
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL BRING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO RISE INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A QUESTION WITH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IF AND/OR HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THE SNOW COVER WILL IMPACT
TEMPERATURES. KEPT HIGHS A BIT COOLER WHERE SNOWPACK EXISTS...WHILE
OTHER AREAS SHOULD EASILY RISE INTO THE 30S AND 40S.

BY MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES
WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A FAIRLY DEEP
TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE WHICH LOOKS TO
STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS MULTIPLE WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PUSH OVER THE RIDGE AND PASS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS IS PROBLEMATIC AS IS
TYPICALLY SEEN IN THESE PATTERNS SO IT IS QUITE DIFFICULT TRYING TO
PINPOINT WHEN THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE. THIS
LEADS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MOST DAYS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW THOUGH...WILL GET UPSLOPE FLOW
OVER THE BLACK HILLS MUCH OF THE PERIOD SO AS LONG AS THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL GET SNOW TO DEVELOP AND THESE AREAS WILL
MAINTAIN THE MORE CONSISTENT AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AMOUNTS DON/T LOOK SIGNIFICANT WITH ANY OF THESE QUICK HITTING
SYSTEMS AT THIS POINT SO THE CURRENT FORECAST JUST HAS LIGHT AMOUNTS
CURRENTLY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MODELS ARE DIGGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. IF THIS HOLDS OUT...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONE THING THAT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING OFF BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS...AND COLDER BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 921 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH KRAP AND KGCC EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH PATCHY IFR FOG ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN THROUGH
CNTRL SD WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JOHNSON








000
FXUS63 KABR 190312 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
912 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. A REPORT FROM THE HIGHWAY PATROL...AS WELL AS DOT WEB-
CAMS SUGGEST THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT HAVING AN IMPACT OF ROAD
CONDITIONS. THUS NO HEADLINE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY 3Z WITH PCPN ENDING BY THEN. THAT
SAID...THE RAPID REFRESH AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST THE LOW STRATUS
DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THIS CWA DRY AS MOST OF THE LLM AND
LIFT IS LOCATED IN NORTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MEAN PRECIP
STARTS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. IT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
IN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND CAA BEHIND THE LOW...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW TOTAL BY TUE MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE AND WED MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD. MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. 0Z RUNS HAD PRECIP MOVING UP INTO THE DAKOTAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY BUT SUBSEQUENT 12Z RUNS ARE KEEPING ALL PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR NOW STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CIGS AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS ARE BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN APPX 800FT
AGL AND 1400FT AGL. BASED OFF THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE LOOP...IT
APPEARS THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS ARE ALMOST TO
KPIR/KMBG...WITH THESE TWO TERMINALS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OFF WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WHILE SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE TWO
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT FOR FOG FORMATION. IF THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW
STRATUS WORKS AS FAR EAST AS THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH MODEL
SUGGESTS...KABR/KATY WOULD BE CLEARING OFF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE/ISOLD SNOW FLURRIES THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS IN CASE EITHER PHENOMENA FLARES
BACK UP AGAIN.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 190236
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
836 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH THE CLOUD DECK HANGING IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1000-1500
FEET...THE CLOUD DECK IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO GET DROPLET PRODUCTION. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED PRECIP THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...AM STILL CONCERNED ABOUT FOG POTENTIAL
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BOTH HI RES HRRR AND THE RAP
SUGGEST FOG POTENTIAL...SO HAVE RAISED FOG MENTION AFTER 06Z
WELL INTO FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

STRATUS CURRENTLY COVERING THE ENTIRE REGION...AND THINK THE CLOUDS
STAY LOCKED IN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. CLEARING LINE IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PROBABLY APPROACH OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS
SUCH AS GREGORY AND BRULE COUNTIES. SO COULD SEE SOME CLEARING THERE
LATER TONIGHT...AND SOME SUN IN THOSE LOCATIONS TOMORROW. THIS IS
THE AREA THAT COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT IF THEY
ARE ABLE TO CLEAR...SO ADDED IN FOG MENTION. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL STAY LOCKED IN THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH NOTHING
ABLE TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER...RAISED LOWS TONIGHT...AS DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO FALL MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS.

ONE QUESTION IS WHETHER WE ARE ABLE TO GET ANY FLURRIES OUT OF THE
STRATUS TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE LAYER DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR
THIS TO BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH AND SATURATION BOTH
SEEM BORDERLINE. EXPECT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND
-7C TO -10C...RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF ICE PRODUCTION. THUS CAN NOT RULE
OUT A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS TO
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO THINK THE LIGHT
PRECIP THREAT SHOULD WANE BY MORNING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK THAT EVEN IF WE DO GET FREEZING
DRIZZLE...IT WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH OF AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE CLOUDY BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TOMORROW. CLOUDS
WILL PREVENT US FROM WARMING TOO MUCH...BUT STILL THINKING WE GET
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW STRATUS TO THE BULK
OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
DECEASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S AND MAY SOAR EVEN HIGHER IF SUBSTANTIAL
CLEARING DOES OCCUR. WITHOUT MUCH LIFT IN THE CLOUD
LAYER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL...BUT WITH CLOUD TOPS
TOO WARM FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...FLURRIES ARE NOT EXPECTED. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD DEPTH IS A BIT TOO MARGINAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS
OF NORTHWEST IOWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AT THIS TIME...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

POTENT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
DIGS INTO NORTH DAKOTA. STILL LOOKING AT SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PRECIPITATION TIMING IS SOMEWHAT LOW. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE AN INITIAL WAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE GEM AND NAM AROUND 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS.
WITH THIS WAVE SOME BROAD LIFT NOSES INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD ALLOW
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE THE MILD AIR ALOFT ERODES. EXPECT A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE. WITH THE BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO OUR EAST...ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND PRELIMINARILY IT LOOKS LIKE
SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY MINIMAL.

SECONDARY WAVE FOLLOWS QUICKLY ON MONDAY...SLOWS AND DEEPENS OVER
THE MID AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM
IS THE OUTLIER WITH A WEAKER OPEN WAVE AND WAS THEREFORE DISCARDED.
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW
CENTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. IT SLOWLY WOBBLES OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION IMPACTING OUR AREA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. WITH A MORE EASTERN TRACK...THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION FOR US WILL BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX ON MONDAY TO SWITCH ENTIRELY TO
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
MILD IN THE 30S...AND COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
TUESDAY.

STRATUS CLOUDS STICK AROUND THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE DIVING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN HALF. COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION
MID WEEK DROPPING READINGS BACK BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 459 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUDS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIKELY MVFR
TO IFR AT TIMES. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL APPROACH KHON
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT FOG WILL
DEVELOP ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS. WILL INCLUDE A PERIOD OF
LIFR FOG FOR HON THAT SHOULD LIFT INTO AN ADDITIONAL STRATUS LAYER
INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KFSD 190236
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
836 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH THE CLOUD DECK HANGING IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1000-1500
FEET...THE CLOUD DECK IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO GET DROPLET PRODUCTION. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED PRECIP THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...AM STILL CONCERNED ABOUT FOG POTENTIAL
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BOTH HI RES HRRR AND THE RAP
SUGGEST FOG POTENTIAL...SO HAVE RAISED FOG MENTION AFTER 06Z
WELL INTO FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

STRATUS CURRENTLY COVERING THE ENTIRE REGION...AND THINK THE CLOUDS
STAY LOCKED IN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. CLEARING LINE IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PROBABLY APPROACH OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS
SUCH AS GREGORY AND BRULE COUNTIES. SO COULD SEE SOME CLEARING THERE
LATER TONIGHT...AND SOME SUN IN THOSE LOCATIONS TOMORROW. THIS IS
THE AREA THAT COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT IF THEY
ARE ABLE TO CLEAR...SO ADDED IN FOG MENTION. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL STAY LOCKED IN THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH NOTHING
ABLE TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER...RAISED LOWS TONIGHT...AS DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO FALL MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS.

ONE QUESTION IS WHETHER WE ARE ABLE TO GET ANY FLURRIES OUT OF THE
STRATUS TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE LAYER DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR
THIS TO BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH AND SATURATION BOTH
SEEM BORDERLINE. EXPECT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND
-7C TO -10C...RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF ICE PRODUCTION. THUS CAN NOT RULE
OUT A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS TO
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO THINK THE LIGHT
PRECIP THREAT SHOULD WANE BY MORNING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK THAT EVEN IF WE DO GET FREEZING
DRIZZLE...IT WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH OF AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE CLOUDY BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TOMORROW. CLOUDS
WILL PREVENT US FROM WARMING TOO MUCH...BUT STILL THINKING WE GET
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW STRATUS TO THE BULK
OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
DECEASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S AND MAY SOAR EVEN HIGHER IF SUBSTANTIAL
CLEARING DOES OCCUR. WITHOUT MUCH LIFT IN THE CLOUD
LAYER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL...BUT WITH CLOUD TOPS
TOO WARM FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...FLURRIES ARE NOT EXPECTED. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD DEPTH IS A BIT TOO MARGINAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS
OF NORTHWEST IOWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AT THIS TIME...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

POTENT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
DIGS INTO NORTH DAKOTA. STILL LOOKING AT SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PRECIPITATION TIMING IS SOMEWHAT LOW. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE AN INITIAL WAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE GEM AND NAM AROUND 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS.
WITH THIS WAVE SOME BROAD LIFT NOSES INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD ALLOW
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE THE MILD AIR ALOFT ERODES. EXPECT A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE. WITH THE BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO OUR EAST...ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND PRELIMINARILY IT LOOKS LIKE
SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY MINIMAL.

SECONDARY WAVE FOLLOWS QUICKLY ON MONDAY...SLOWS AND DEEPENS OVER
THE MID AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM
IS THE OUTLIER WITH A WEAKER OPEN WAVE AND WAS THEREFORE DISCARDED.
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW
CENTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. IT SLOWLY WOBBLES OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION IMPACTING OUR AREA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. WITH A MORE EASTERN TRACK...THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION FOR US WILL BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX ON MONDAY TO SWITCH ENTIRELY TO
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
MILD IN THE 30S...AND COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
TUESDAY.

STRATUS CLOUDS STICK AROUND THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE DIVING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN HALF. COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION
MID WEEK DROPPING READINGS BACK BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 459 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUDS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIKELY MVFR
TO IFR AT TIMES. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL APPROACH KHON
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT FOG WILL
DEVELOP ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS. WILL INCLUDE A PERIOD OF
LIFR FOG FOR HON THAT SHOULD LIFT INTO AN ADDITIONAL STRATUS LAYER
INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KUNR 190236
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
736 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 731 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

PATCHY FOG IS FORMING NEAR THE WRN EDGE OF STRATUS THAT IS SLOWLY
PUSHING EAST OF THE CWFA. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO OUR FAR ERN ZONES
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY CLEAR A BIT EARLIER
WITH DRIER SW/W FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
ERODING OF THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN S
DAKOTA...WITH MOST OF THE CWA NOW SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY INTO THE 20S AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. TOMORROW A WEEK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AND EXPECT ONLY SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THIS
SHOULD NOT IMPEDE MUCH ON WARMING WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE MID RANGE OF THE FORECAST DEAL WITH
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING SATURDAY MORNING AND WITH
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO THE PATTERN SHIFT FOR NEXT WEEK AS IT TURNS ACTIVE FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC CROSSING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH DRY AS THERE IS A LARGE LACK OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE STILL WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM
AFTER CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TO BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF WYOMING SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS A
CLEAR DRY LAYER JUST OFF THE SURFACE SO MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
THE NAM IS NOT AS ROBUST WITH THE DRY AIR BUT WOULD INDICATE THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO AT LEAST INCLUDE A SLIGHT MENTION
OF SNOW SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLIGHT MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BEHIND THE WEAK PACIFIC FRONT THAT MOVES THOUGH SATURDAY MORNING
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL BRING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO RISE INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A QUESTION WITH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IF AND/OR HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THE SNOW COVER WILL IMPACT
TEMPERATURES. KEPT HIGHS A BIT COOLER WHERE SNOWPACK EXISTS...WHILE
OTHER AREAS SHOULD EASILY RISE INTO THE 30S AND 40S.

BY MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES
WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A FAIRLY DEEP
TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE WHICH LOOKS TO
STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS MULTIPLE WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PUSH OVER THE RIDGE AND PASS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS IS PROBLEMATIC AS IS
TYPICALLY SEEN IN THESE PATTERNS SO IT IS QUITE DIFFICULT TRYING TO
PINPOINT WHEN THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE. THIS
LEADS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MOST DAYS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW THOUGH...WILL GET UPSLOPE FLOW
OVER THE BLACK HILLS MUCH OF THE PERIOD SO AS LONG AS THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL GET SNOW TO DEVELOP AND THESE AREAS WILL
MAINTAIN THE MORE CONSISTENT AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AMOUNTS DON/T LOOK SIGNIFICANT WITH ANY OF THESE QUICK HITTING
SYSTEMS AT THIS POINT SO THE CURRENT FORECAST JUST HAS LIGHT AMOUNTS
CURRENTLY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MODELS ARE DIGGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. IF THIS HOLDS OUT...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONE THING THAT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING OFF BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS...AND COLDER BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH KRAP AND KGCC EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH PATCHY IFR FOG ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN THROUGH
CNTRL SD WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 190236
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
736 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 731 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

PATCHY FOG IS FORMING NEAR THE WRN EDGE OF STRATUS THAT IS SLOWLY
PUSHING EAST OF THE CWFA. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO OUR FAR ERN ZONES
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY CLEAR A BIT EARLIER
WITH DRIER SW/W FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
ERODING OF THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN S
DAKOTA...WITH MOST OF THE CWA NOW SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY INTO THE 20S AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. TOMORROW A WEEK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AND EXPECT ONLY SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THIS
SHOULD NOT IMPEDE MUCH ON WARMING WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE MID RANGE OF THE FORECAST DEAL WITH
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING SATURDAY MORNING AND WITH
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO THE PATTERN SHIFT FOR NEXT WEEK AS IT TURNS ACTIVE FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC CROSSING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH DRY AS THERE IS A LARGE LACK OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE STILL WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM
AFTER CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TO BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF WYOMING SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS A
CLEAR DRY LAYER JUST OFF THE SURFACE SO MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
THE NAM IS NOT AS ROBUST WITH THE DRY AIR BUT WOULD INDICATE THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO AT LEAST INCLUDE A SLIGHT MENTION
OF SNOW SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLIGHT MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BEHIND THE WEAK PACIFIC FRONT THAT MOVES THOUGH SATURDAY MORNING
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL BRING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO RISE INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A QUESTION WITH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IF AND/OR HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THE SNOW COVER WILL IMPACT
TEMPERATURES. KEPT HIGHS A BIT COOLER WHERE SNOWPACK EXISTS...WHILE
OTHER AREAS SHOULD EASILY RISE INTO THE 30S AND 40S.

BY MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES
WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A FAIRLY DEEP
TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE WHICH LOOKS TO
STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS MULTIPLE WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PUSH OVER THE RIDGE AND PASS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS IS PROBLEMATIC AS IS
TYPICALLY SEEN IN THESE PATTERNS SO IT IS QUITE DIFFICULT TRYING TO
PINPOINT WHEN THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE. THIS
LEADS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MOST DAYS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW THOUGH...WILL GET UPSLOPE FLOW
OVER THE BLACK HILLS MUCH OF THE PERIOD SO AS LONG AS THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL GET SNOW TO DEVELOP AND THESE AREAS WILL
MAINTAIN THE MORE CONSISTENT AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AMOUNTS DON/T LOOK SIGNIFICANT WITH ANY OF THESE QUICK HITTING
SYSTEMS AT THIS POINT SO THE CURRENT FORECAST JUST HAS LIGHT AMOUNTS
CURRENTLY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MODELS ARE DIGGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. IF THIS HOLDS OUT...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONE THING THAT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING OFF BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS...AND COLDER BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH KRAP AND KGCC EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH PATCHY IFR FOG ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN THROUGH
CNTRL SD WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JOHNSON






000
FXUS63 KABR 182341 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
541 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. A REPORT FROM THE HIGHWAY PATROL...AS WELL AS DOT WEB-
CAMS SUGGEST THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT HAVING AN IMPACT OF ROAD
CONDITIONS. THUS NO HEADLINE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY 3Z WITH PCPN ENDING BY THEN. THAT
SAID...THE RAPID REFRESH AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST THE LOW STRATUS
DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THIS CWA DRY AS MOST OF THE LLM AND
LIFT IS LOCATED IN NORTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MEAN PRECIP
STARTS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. IT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
IN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND CAA BEHIND THE LOW...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW TOTAL BY TUE MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE AND WED MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD. MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. 0Z RUNS HAD PRECIP MOVING UP INTO THE DAKOTAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY BUT SUBSEQUENT 12Z RUNS ARE KEEPING ALL PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR NOW STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CIGS AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS ARE BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN APPX 800FT
AGL AND 1400FT AGL. BASED OFF THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE LOOP...IT
APPEARS THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS ARE ALMOST TO
KPIR/KMBG...WITH THESE TWO TERMINALS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OFF WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WHILE SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE TWO
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT FOR FOG FORMATION. IF THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW
STRATUS WORKS AS FAR EAST AS THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH MODEL
SUGGESTS...KABR/KATY WOULD BE CLEARING OFF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE/ISOLD SNOW FLURRIES THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS IN CASE EITHER PHENOMENA FLARES
BACK UP AGAIN.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 182341 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
541 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. A REPORT FROM THE HIGHWAY PATROL...AS WELL AS DOT WEB-
CAMS SUGGEST THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT HAVING AN IMPACT OF ROAD
CONDITIONS. THUS NO HEADLINE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY 3Z WITH PCPN ENDING BY THEN. THAT
SAID...THE RAPID REFRESH AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST THE LOW STRATUS
DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THIS CWA DRY AS MOST OF THE LLM AND
LIFT IS LOCATED IN NORTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MEAN PRECIP
STARTS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. IT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
IN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND CAA BEHIND THE LOW...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW TOTAL BY TUE MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE AND WED MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD. MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. 0Z RUNS HAD PRECIP MOVING UP INTO THE DAKOTAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY BUT SUBSEQUENT 12Z RUNS ARE KEEPING ALL PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR NOW STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CIGS AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS ARE BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN APPX 800FT
AGL AND 1400FT AGL. BASED OFF THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE LOOP...IT
APPEARS THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS ARE ALMOST TO
KPIR/KMBG...WITH THESE TWO TERMINALS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OFF WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WHILE SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE TWO
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT FOR FOG FORMATION. IF THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW
STRATUS WORKS AS FAR EAST AS THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH MODEL
SUGGESTS...KABR/KATY WOULD BE CLEARING OFF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE/ISOLD SNOW FLURRIES THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS IN CASE EITHER PHENOMENA FLARES
BACK UP AGAIN.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 182306
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
406 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
ERODING OF THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN S
DAKOTA...WITH MOST OF THE CWA NOW SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY INTO THE 20S AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. TOMORROW A WEEK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AND EXPECT ONLY SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THIS
SHOULD NOT IMPEDE MUCH ON WARMING WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE MID RANGE OF THE FORECAST DEAL WITH
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING SATURDAY MORNING AND WITH
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO THE PATTERN SHIFT FOR NEXT WEEK AS IT TURNS ACTIVE FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC CROSSING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH DRY AS THERE IS A LARGE LACK OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE STILL WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM
AFTER CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TO BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF WYOMING SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS A
CLEAR DRY LAYER JUST OFF THE SURFACE SO MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
THE NAM IS NOT AS ROBUST WITH THE DRY AIR BUT WOULD INDICATE THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO AT LEAST INCLUDE A SLIGHT MENTION
OF SNOW SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLIGHT MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BEHIND THE WEAK PACIFIC FRONT THAT MOVES THOUGH SATURDAY MORNING
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL BRING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO RISE INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A QUESTION WITH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IF AND/OR HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THE SNOW COVER WILL IMPACT
TEMPERATURES. KEPT HIGHS A BIT COOLER WHERE SNOWPACK EXISTS...WHILE
OTHER AREAS SHOULD EASILY RISE INTO THE 30S AND 40S.

BY MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES
WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A FAIRLY DEEP
TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE WHICH LOOKS TO
STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS MULTIPLE WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PUSH OVER THE RIDGE AND PASS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS IS PROBLEMATIC AS IS
TYPICALLY SEEN IN THESE PATTERNS SO IT IS QUITE DIFFICULT TRYING TO
PINPOINT WHEN THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE. THIS
LEADS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MOST DAYS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW THOUGH...WILL GET UPSLOPE FLOW
OVER THE BLACK HILLS MUCH OF THE PERIOD SO AS LONG AS THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL GET SNOW TO DEVELOP AND THESE AREAS WILL
MAINTAIN THE MORE CONSISTENT AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AMOUNTS DON/T LOOK SIGNIFICANT WITH ANY OF THESE QUICK HITTING
SYSTEMS AT THIS POINT SO THE CURRENT FORECAST JUST HAS LIGHT AMOUNTS
CURRENTLY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MODELS ARE DIGGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. IF THIS HOLDS OUT...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONE THING THAT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING OFF BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS...AND COLDER BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 403 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH KRAP AND KGCC EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MVFR CIGS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL SD WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JOHNSON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 182306
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
406 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
ERODING OF THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN S
DAKOTA...WITH MOST OF THE CWA NOW SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY INTO THE 20S AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. TOMORROW A WEEK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AND EXPECT ONLY SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THIS
SHOULD NOT IMPEDE MUCH ON WARMING WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE MID RANGE OF THE FORECAST DEAL WITH
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING SATURDAY MORNING AND WITH
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO THE PATTERN SHIFT FOR NEXT WEEK AS IT TURNS ACTIVE FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC CROSSING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH DRY AS THERE IS A LARGE LACK OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE STILL WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM
AFTER CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TO BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF WYOMING SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS A
CLEAR DRY LAYER JUST OFF THE SURFACE SO MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
THE NAM IS NOT AS ROBUST WITH THE DRY AIR BUT WOULD INDICATE THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO AT LEAST INCLUDE A SLIGHT MENTION
OF SNOW SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLIGHT MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BEHIND THE WEAK PACIFIC FRONT THAT MOVES THOUGH SATURDAY MORNING
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL BRING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO RISE INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A QUESTION WITH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IF AND/OR HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THE SNOW COVER WILL IMPACT
TEMPERATURES. KEPT HIGHS A BIT COOLER WHERE SNOWPACK EXISTS...WHILE
OTHER AREAS SHOULD EASILY RISE INTO THE 30S AND 40S.

BY MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES
WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A FAIRLY DEEP
TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE WHICH LOOKS TO
STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS MULTIPLE WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PUSH OVER THE RIDGE AND PASS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS IS PROBLEMATIC AS IS
TYPICALLY SEEN IN THESE PATTERNS SO IT IS QUITE DIFFICULT TRYING TO
PINPOINT WHEN THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE. THIS
LEADS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MOST DAYS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW THOUGH...WILL GET UPSLOPE FLOW
OVER THE BLACK HILLS MUCH OF THE PERIOD SO AS LONG AS THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL GET SNOW TO DEVELOP AND THESE AREAS WILL
MAINTAIN THE MORE CONSISTENT AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AMOUNTS DON/T LOOK SIGNIFICANT WITH ANY OF THESE QUICK HITTING
SYSTEMS AT THIS POINT SO THE CURRENT FORECAST JUST HAS LIGHT AMOUNTS
CURRENTLY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MODELS ARE DIGGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. IF THIS HOLDS OUT...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONE THING THAT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING OFF BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS...AND COLDER BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 403 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH KRAP AND KGCC EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MVFR CIGS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL SD WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KFSD 182301
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
501 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

STRATUS CURRENTLY COVERING THE ENTIRE REGION...AND THINK THE CLOUDS
STAY LOCKED IN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. CLEARING LINE IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PROBABLY APPROACH OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS
SUCH AS GREGORY AND BRULE COUNTIES. SO COULD SEE SOME CLEARING THERE
LATER TONIGHT...AND SOME SUN IN THOSE LOCATIONS TOMORROW. THIS IS
THE AREA THAT COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT IF THEY
ARE ABLE TO CLEAR...SO ADDED IN FOG MENTION. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL STAY LOCKED IN THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH NOTHING
ABLE TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER...RAISED LOWS TONIGHT...AS DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO FALL MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS.

ONE QUESTION IS WHETHER WE ARE ABLE TO GET ANY FLURRIES OUT OF THE
STRATUS TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE LAYER DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR
THIS TO BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH AND SATURATION BOTH
SEEM BORDERLINE. EXPECT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND
-7C TO -10C...RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF ICE PRODUCTION. THUS CAN NOT RULE
OUT A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS TO
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO THINK THE LIGHT
PRECIP THREAT SHOULD WANE BY MORNING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK THAT EVEN IF WE DO GET FREEZING
DRIZZLE...IT WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH OF AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE CLOUDY BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TOMORROW. CLOUDS
WILL PREVENT US FROM WARMING TOO MUCH...BUT STILL THINKING WE GET
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW STRATUS TO THE BULK
OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
DECEASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S AND MAY SOAR EVEN HIGHER IF SUBSTANTIAL
CLEARING DOES OCCUR. WITHOUT MUCH LIFT IN THE CLOUD
LAYER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL...BUT WITH CLOUD TOPS
TOO WARM FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...FLURRIES ARE NOT EXPECTED. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD DEPTH IS A BIT TOO MARGINAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS
OF NORTHWEST IOWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AT THIS TIME...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

POTENT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
DIGS INTO NORTH DAKOTA. STILL LOOKING AT SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PRECIPITATION TIMING IS SOMEWHAT LOW. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE AN INITIAL WAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE GEM AND NAM AROUND 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS.
WITH THIS WAVE SOME BROAD LIFT NOSES INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD ALLOW
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE THE MILD AIR ALOFT ERODES. EXPECT A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE. WITH THE BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO OUR EAST...ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND PRELIMINARILY IT LOOKS LIKE
SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY MINIMAL.

SECONDARY WAVE FOLLOWS QUICKLY ON MONDAY...SLOWS AND DEEPENS OVER
THE MID AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM
IS THE OUTLIER WITH A WEAKER OPEN WAVE AND WAS THEREFORE DISCARDED.
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW
CENTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. IT SLOWLY WOBBLES OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION IMPACTING OUR AREA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. WITH A MORE EASTERN TRACK...THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION FOR US WILL BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX ON MONDAY TO SWITCH ENTIRELY TO
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
MILD IN THE 30S...AND COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
TUESDAY.

STRATUS CLOUDS STICK AROUND THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE DIVING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN HALF. COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION
MID WEEK DROPPING READINGS BACK BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 459 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUDS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIKELY MVFR
TO IFR AT TIMES. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL APPROACH KHON
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT FOG WILL
DEVELOP ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS. WILL INCLUDE A PERIOD OF
LIFR FOG FOR HON THAT SHOULD LIFT INTO AN ADDITIONAL STRATUS LAYER
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KFSD 182301
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
501 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

STRATUS CURRENTLY COVERING THE ENTIRE REGION...AND THINK THE CLOUDS
STAY LOCKED IN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. CLEARING LINE IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PROBABLY APPROACH OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS
SUCH AS GREGORY AND BRULE COUNTIES. SO COULD SEE SOME CLEARING THERE
LATER TONIGHT...AND SOME SUN IN THOSE LOCATIONS TOMORROW. THIS IS
THE AREA THAT COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT IF THEY
ARE ABLE TO CLEAR...SO ADDED IN FOG MENTION. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL STAY LOCKED IN THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH NOTHING
ABLE TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER...RAISED LOWS TONIGHT...AS DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO FALL MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS.

ONE QUESTION IS WHETHER WE ARE ABLE TO GET ANY FLURRIES OUT OF THE
STRATUS TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE LAYER DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR
THIS TO BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH AND SATURATION BOTH
SEEM BORDERLINE. EXPECT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND
-7C TO -10C...RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF ICE PRODUCTION. THUS CAN NOT RULE
OUT A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS TO
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO THINK THE LIGHT
PRECIP THREAT SHOULD WANE BY MORNING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK THAT EVEN IF WE DO GET FREEZING
DRIZZLE...IT WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH OF AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE CLOUDY BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TOMORROW. CLOUDS
WILL PREVENT US FROM WARMING TOO MUCH...BUT STILL THINKING WE GET
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW STRATUS TO THE BULK
OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
DECEASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S AND MAY SOAR EVEN HIGHER IF SUBSTANTIAL
CLEARING DOES OCCUR. WITHOUT MUCH LIFT IN THE CLOUD
LAYER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL...BUT WITH CLOUD TOPS
TOO WARM FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...FLURRIES ARE NOT EXPECTED. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD DEPTH IS A BIT TOO MARGINAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS
OF NORTHWEST IOWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AT THIS TIME...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

POTENT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
DIGS INTO NORTH DAKOTA. STILL LOOKING AT SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PRECIPITATION TIMING IS SOMEWHAT LOW. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE AN INITIAL WAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE GEM AND NAM AROUND 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS.
WITH THIS WAVE SOME BROAD LIFT NOSES INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD ALLOW
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE THE MILD AIR ALOFT ERODES. EXPECT A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE. WITH THE BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO OUR EAST...ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND PRELIMINARILY IT LOOKS LIKE
SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY MINIMAL.

SECONDARY WAVE FOLLOWS QUICKLY ON MONDAY...SLOWS AND DEEPENS OVER
THE MID AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM
IS THE OUTLIER WITH A WEAKER OPEN WAVE AND WAS THEREFORE DISCARDED.
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW
CENTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. IT SLOWLY WOBBLES OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION IMPACTING OUR AREA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. WITH A MORE EASTERN TRACK...THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION FOR US WILL BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX ON MONDAY TO SWITCH ENTIRELY TO
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
MILD IN THE 30S...AND COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
TUESDAY.

STRATUS CLOUDS STICK AROUND THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE DIVING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN HALF. COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION
MID WEEK DROPPING READINGS BACK BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 459 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUDS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIKELY MVFR
TO IFR AT TIMES. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL APPROACH KHON
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT FOG WILL
DEVELOP ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS. WILL INCLUDE A PERIOD OF
LIFR FOG FOR HON THAT SHOULD LIFT INTO AN ADDITIONAL STRATUS LAYER
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KFSD 182301
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
501 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

STRATUS CURRENTLY COVERING THE ENTIRE REGION...AND THINK THE CLOUDS
STAY LOCKED IN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. CLEARING LINE IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PROBABLY APPROACH OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS
SUCH AS GREGORY AND BRULE COUNTIES. SO COULD SEE SOME CLEARING THERE
LATER TONIGHT...AND SOME SUN IN THOSE LOCATIONS TOMORROW. THIS IS
THE AREA THAT COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT IF THEY
ARE ABLE TO CLEAR...SO ADDED IN FOG MENTION. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL STAY LOCKED IN THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH NOTHING
ABLE TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER...RAISED LOWS TONIGHT...AS DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO FALL MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS.

ONE QUESTION IS WHETHER WE ARE ABLE TO GET ANY FLURRIES OUT OF THE
STRATUS TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE LAYER DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR
THIS TO BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH AND SATURATION BOTH
SEEM BORDERLINE. EXPECT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND
-7C TO -10C...RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF ICE PRODUCTION. THUS CAN NOT RULE
OUT A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS TO
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO THINK THE LIGHT
PRECIP THREAT SHOULD WANE BY MORNING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK THAT EVEN IF WE DO GET FREEZING
DRIZZLE...IT WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH OF AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE CLOUDY BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TOMORROW. CLOUDS
WILL PREVENT US FROM WARMING TOO MUCH...BUT STILL THINKING WE GET
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW STRATUS TO THE BULK
OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
DECEASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S AND MAY SOAR EVEN HIGHER IF SUBSTANTIAL
CLEARING DOES OCCUR. WITHOUT MUCH LIFT IN THE CLOUD
LAYER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL...BUT WITH CLOUD TOPS
TOO WARM FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...FLURRIES ARE NOT EXPECTED. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD DEPTH IS A BIT TOO MARGINAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS
OF NORTHWEST IOWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AT THIS TIME...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

POTENT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
DIGS INTO NORTH DAKOTA. STILL LOOKING AT SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PRECIPITATION TIMING IS SOMEWHAT LOW. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE AN INITIAL WAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE GEM AND NAM AROUND 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS.
WITH THIS WAVE SOME BROAD LIFT NOSES INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD ALLOW
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE THE MILD AIR ALOFT ERODES. EXPECT A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE. WITH THE BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO OUR EAST...ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND PRELIMINARILY IT LOOKS LIKE
SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY MINIMAL.

SECONDARY WAVE FOLLOWS QUICKLY ON MONDAY...SLOWS AND DEEPENS OVER
THE MID AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM
IS THE OUTLIER WITH A WEAKER OPEN WAVE AND WAS THEREFORE DISCARDED.
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW
CENTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. IT SLOWLY WOBBLES OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION IMPACTING OUR AREA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. WITH A MORE EASTERN TRACK...THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION FOR US WILL BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX ON MONDAY TO SWITCH ENTIRELY TO
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
MILD IN THE 30S...AND COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
TUESDAY.

STRATUS CLOUDS STICK AROUND THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE DIVING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN HALF. COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION
MID WEEK DROPPING READINGS BACK BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 459 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUDS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIKELY MVFR
TO IFR AT TIMES. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL APPROACH KHON
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT FOG WILL
DEVELOP ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS. WILL INCLUDE A PERIOD OF
LIFR FOG FOR HON THAT SHOULD LIFT INTO AN ADDITIONAL STRATUS LAYER
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KFSD 182301
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
501 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

STRATUS CURRENTLY COVERING THE ENTIRE REGION...AND THINK THE CLOUDS
STAY LOCKED IN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. CLEARING LINE IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PROBABLY APPROACH OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS
SUCH AS GREGORY AND BRULE COUNTIES. SO COULD SEE SOME CLEARING THERE
LATER TONIGHT...AND SOME SUN IN THOSE LOCATIONS TOMORROW. THIS IS
THE AREA THAT COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT IF THEY
ARE ABLE TO CLEAR...SO ADDED IN FOG MENTION. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL STAY LOCKED IN THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH NOTHING
ABLE TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER...RAISED LOWS TONIGHT...AS DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO FALL MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS.

ONE QUESTION IS WHETHER WE ARE ABLE TO GET ANY FLURRIES OUT OF THE
STRATUS TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE LAYER DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR
THIS TO BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH AND SATURATION BOTH
SEEM BORDERLINE. EXPECT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND
-7C TO -10C...RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF ICE PRODUCTION. THUS CAN NOT RULE
OUT A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS TO
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO THINK THE LIGHT
PRECIP THREAT SHOULD WANE BY MORNING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK THAT EVEN IF WE DO GET FREEZING
DRIZZLE...IT WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH OF AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE CLOUDY BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TOMORROW. CLOUDS
WILL PREVENT US FROM WARMING TOO MUCH...BUT STILL THINKING WE GET
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW STRATUS TO THE BULK
OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
DECEASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S AND MAY SOAR EVEN HIGHER IF SUBSTANTIAL
CLEARING DOES OCCUR. WITHOUT MUCH LIFT IN THE CLOUD
LAYER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL...BUT WITH CLOUD TOPS
TOO WARM FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...FLURRIES ARE NOT EXPECTED. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD DEPTH IS A BIT TOO MARGINAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS
OF NORTHWEST IOWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AT THIS TIME...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

POTENT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
DIGS INTO NORTH DAKOTA. STILL LOOKING AT SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PRECIPITATION TIMING IS SOMEWHAT LOW. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE AN INITIAL WAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE GEM AND NAM AROUND 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS.
WITH THIS WAVE SOME BROAD LIFT NOSES INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD ALLOW
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE THE MILD AIR ALOFT ERODES. EXPECT A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE. WITH THE BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO OUR EAST...ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND PRELIMINARILY IT LOOKS LIKE
SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY MINIMAL.

SECONDARY WAVE FOLLOWS QUICKLY ON MONDAY...SLOWS AND DEEPENS OVER
THE MID AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM
IS THE OUTLIER WITH A WEAKER OPEN WAVE AND WAS THEREFORE DISCARDED.
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW
CENTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. IT SLOWLY WOBBLES OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION IMPACTING OUR AREA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. WITH A MORE EASTERN TRACK...THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION FOR US WILL BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX ON MONDAY TO SWITCH ENTIRELY TO
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
MILD IN THE 30S...AND COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
TUESDAY.

STRATUS CLOUDS STICK AROUND THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE DIVING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN HALF. COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION
MID WEEK DROPPING READINGS BACK BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 459 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUDS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIKELY MVFR
TO IFR AT TIMES. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL APPROACH KHON
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT FOG WILL
DEVELOP ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS. WILL INCLUDE A PERIOD OF
LIFR FOG FOR HON THAT SHOULD LIFT INTO AN ADDITIONAL STRATUS LAYER
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KFSD 182149
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
349 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

STRATUS CURRENTLY COVERING THE ENTIRE REGION...AND THINK THE CLOUDS
STAY LOCKED IN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. CLEARING LINE IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PROBABLY APPROACH OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS
SUCH AS GREGORY AND BRULE COUNTIES. SO COULD SEE SOME CLEARING THERE
LATER TONIGHT...AND SOME SUN IN THOSE LOCATIONS TOMORROW. THIS IS
THE AREA THAT COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT IF THEY
ARE ABLE TO CLEAR...SO ADDED IN FOG MENTION. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL STAY LOCKED IN THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH NOTHING
ABLE TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER...RAISED LOWS TONIGHT...AS DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO FALL MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS.

ONE QUESTION IS WHETHER WE ARE ABLE TO GET ANY FLURRIES OUT OF THE
STRATUS TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE LAYER DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR
THIS TO BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH AND SATURATION BOTH
SEEM BORDERLINE. EXPECT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND
-7C TO -10C...RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF ICE PRODUCTION. THUS CAN NOT RULE
OUT A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS TO
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO THINK THE LIGHT
PRECIP THREAT SHOULD WANE BY MORNING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK THAT EVEN IF WE DO GET FREEZING
DRIZZLE...IT WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH OF AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE CLOUDY BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TOMORROW. CLOUDS
WILL PREVENT US FROM WARMING TOO MUCH...BUT STILL THINKING WE GET
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW STRATUS TO THE BULK
OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
DECEASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S AND MAY SOAR EVEN HIGHER IF SUBSTANTIAL
CLEARING DOES OCCUR. WITHOUT MUCH LIFT IN THE CLOUD
LAYER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL...BUT WITH CLOUD TOPS
TOO WARM FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...FLURRIES ARE NOT EXPECTED. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD DEPTH IS A BIT TOO MARGINAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS
OF NORTHWEST IOWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AT THIS TIME...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

POTENT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
DIGS INTO NORTH DAKOTA. STILL LOOKING AT SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PRECIPITATION TIMING IS SOMEWHAT LOW. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE AN INITIAL WAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE GEM AND NAM AROUND 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS.
WITH THIS WAVE SOME BROAD LIFT NOSES INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD ALLOW
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE THE MILD AIR ALOFT ERODES. EXPECT A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE. WITH THE BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO OUR EAST...ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND PRELIMINARILY IT LOOKS LIKE
SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY MINIMAL.

SECONDARY WAVE FOLLOWS QUICKLY ON MONDAY...SLOWS AND DEEPENS OVER
THE MID AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM
IS THE OUTLIER WITH A WEAKER OPEN WAVE AND WAS THEREFORE DISCARDED.
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW
CENTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. IT SLOWLY WOBBLES OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION IMPACTING OUR AREA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. WITH A MORE EASTERN TRACK...THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION FOR US WILL BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX ON MONDAY TO SWITCH ENTIRELY TO
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
MILD IN THE 30S...AND COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
TUESDAY.

STRATUS CLOUDS STICK AROUND THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE DIVING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN HALF. COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION
MID WEEK DROPPING READINGS BACK BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERALLY SEEING MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND VFR TO THE
EAST. HOWEVER EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO EXPAND EAST AND COVER THE
REGION BY LATER TODAY. THESE LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE AREAS THAT GO IFR...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON WHEN AND WHERE IS LOW...SO WILL KEEP THE TAFS MVFR.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
TONIGHT...SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 182149
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
349 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

STRATUS CURRENTLY COVERING THE ENTIRE REGION...AND THINK THE CLOUDS
STAY LOCKED IN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. CLEARING LINE IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PROBABLY APPROACH OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS
SUCH AS GREGORY AND BRULE COUNTIES. SO COULD SEE SOME CLEARING THERE
LATER TONIGHT...AND SOME SUN IN THOSE LOCATIONS TOMORROW. THIS IS
THE AREA THAT COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT IF THEY
ARE ABLE TO CLEAR...SO ADDED IN FOG MENTION. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL STAY LOCKED IN THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH NOTHING
ABLE TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER...RAISED LOWS TONIGHT...AS DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO FALL MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS.

ONE QUESTION IS WHETHER WE ARE ABLE TO GET ANY FLURRIES OUT OF THE
STRATUS TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE LAYER DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR
THIS TO BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH AND SATURATION BOTH
SEEM BORDERLINE. EXPECT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND
-7C TO -10C...RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF ICE PRODUCTION. THUS CAN NOT RULE
OUT A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS TO
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO THINK THE LIGHT
PRECIP THREAT SHOULD WANE BY MORNING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK THAT EVEN IF WE DO GET FREEZING
DRIZZLE...IT WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH OF AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE CLOUDY BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TOMORROW. CLOUDS
WILL PREVENT US FROM WARMING TOO MUCH...BUT STILL THINKING WE GET
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW STRATUS TO THE BULK
OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
DECEASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S AND MAY SOAR EVEN HIGHER IF SUBSTANTIAL
CLEARING DOES OCCUR. WITHOUT MUCH LIFT IN THE CLOUD
LAYER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL...BUT WITH CLOUD TOPS
TOO WARM FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...FLURRIES ARE NOT EXPECTED. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD DEPTH IS A BIT TOO MARGINAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS
OF NORTHWEST IOWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AT THIS TIME...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

POTENT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
DIGS INTO NORTH DAKOTA. STILL LOOKING AT SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PRECIPITATION TIMING IS SOMEWHAT LOW. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE AN INITIAL WAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE GEM AND NAM AROUND 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS.
WITH THIS WAVE SOME BROAD LIFT NOSES INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD ALLOW
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE THE MILD AIR ALOFT ERODES. EXPECT A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE. WITH THE BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO OUR EAST...ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND PRELIMINARILY IT LOOKS LIKE
SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY MINIMAL.

SECONDARY WAVE FOLLOWS QUICKLY ON MONDAY...SLOWS AND DEEPENS OVER
THE MID AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM
IS THE OUTLIER WITH A WEAKER OPEN WAVE AND WAS THEREFORE DISCARDED.
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW
CENTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. IT SLOWLY WOBBLES OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION IMPACTING OUR AREA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. WITH A MORE EASTERN TRACK...THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION FOR US WILL BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX ON MONDAY TO SWITCH ENTIRELY TO
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
MILD IN THE 30S...AND COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
TUESDAY.

STRATUS CLOUDS STICK AROUND THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE DIVING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN HALF. COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION
MID WEEK DROPPING READINGS BACK BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERALLY SEEING MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND VFR TO THE
EAST. HOWEVER EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO EXPAND EAST AND COVER THE
REGION BY LATER TODAY. THESE LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE AREAS THAT GO IFR...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON WHEN AND WHERE IS LOW...SO WILL KEEP THE TAFS MVFR.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
TONIGHT...SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 182149
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
349 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

STRATUS CURRENTLY COVERING THE ENTIRE REGION...AND THINK THE CLOUDS
STAY LOCKED IN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. CLEARING LINE IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PROBABLY APPROACH OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS
SUCH AS GREGORY AND BRULE COUNTIES. SO COULD SEE SOME CLEARING THERE
LATER TONIGHT...AND SOME SUN IN THOSE LOCATIONS TOMORROW. THIS IS
THE AREA THAT COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT IF THEY
ARE ABLE TO CLEAR...SO ADDED IN FOG MENTION. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL STAY LOCKED IN THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH NOTHING
ABLE TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER...RAISED LOWS TONIGHT...AS DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO FALL MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS.

ONE QUESTION IS WHETHER WE ARE ABLE TO GET ANY FLURRIES OUT OF THE
STRATUS TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE LAYER DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR
THIS TO BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH AND SATURATION BOTH
SEEM BORDERLINE. EXPECT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND
-7C TO -10C...RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF ICE PRODUCTION. THUS CAN NOT RULE
OUT A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS TO
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO THINK THE LIGHT
PRECIP THREAT SHOULD WANE BY MORNING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK THAT EVEN IF WE DO GET FREEZING
DRIZZLE...IT WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH OF AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE CLOUDY BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TOMORROW. CLOUDS
WILL PREVENT US FROM WARMING TOO MUCH...BUT STILL THINKING WE GET
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW STRATUS TO THE BULK
OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
DECEASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S AND MAY SOAR EVEN HIGHER IF SUBSTANTIAL
CLEARING DOES OCCUR. WITHOUT MUCH LIFT IN THE CLOUD
LAYER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL...BUT WITH CLOUD TOPS
TOO WARM FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...FLURRIES ARE NOT EXPECTED. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD DEPTH IS A BIT TOO MARGINAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS
OF NORTHWEST IOWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AT THIS TIME...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

POTENT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
DIGS INTO NORTH DAKOTA. STILL LOOKING AT SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PRECIPITATION TIMING IS SOMEWHAT LOW. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE AN INITIAL WAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE GEM AND NAM AROUND 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS.
WITH THIS WAVE SOME BROAD LIFT NOSES INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD ALLOW
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE THE MILD AIR ALOFT ERODES. EXPECT A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE. WITH THE BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO OUR EAST...ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND PRELIMINARILY IT LOOKS LIKE
SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY MINIMAL.

SECONDARY WAVE FOLLOWS QUICKLY ON MONDAY...SLOWS AND DEEPENS OVER
THE MID AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM
IS THE OUTLIER WITH A WEAKER OPEN WAVE AND WAS THEREFORE DISCARDED.
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW
CENTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. IT SLOWLY WOBBLES OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION IMPACTING OUR AREA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. WITH A MORE EASTERN TRACK...THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION FOR US WILL BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX ON MONDAY TO SWITCH ENTIRELY TO
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
MILD IN THE 30S...AND COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
TUESDAY.

STRATUS CLOUDS STICK AROUND THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE DIVING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN HALF. COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION
MID WEEK DROPPING READINGS BACK BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERALLY SEEING MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND VFR TO THE
EAST. HOWEVER EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO EXPAND EAST AND COVER THE
REGION BY LATER TODAY. THESE LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE AREAS THAT GO IFR...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON WHEN AND WHERE IS LOW...SO WILL KEEP THE TAFS MVFR.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
TONIGHT...SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 182149
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
349 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

STRATUS CURRENTLY COVERING THE ENTIRE REGION...AND THINK THE CLOUDS
STAY LOCKED IN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. CLEARING LINE IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PROBABLY APPROACH OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS
SUCH AS GREGORY AND BRULE COUNTIES. SO COULD SEE SOME CLEARING THERE
LATER TONIGHT...AND SOME SUN IN THOSE LOCATIONS TOMORROW. THIS IS
THE AREA THAT COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT IF THEY
ARE ABLE TO CLEAR...SO ADDED IN FOG MENTION. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL STAY LOCKED IN THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH NOTHING
ABLE TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER...RAISED LOWS TONIGHT...AS DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO FALL MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS.

ONE QUESTION IS WHETHER WE ARE ABLE TO GET ANY FLURRIES OUT OF THE
STRATUS TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE LAYER DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR
THIS TO BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH AND SATURATION BOTH
SEEM BORDERLINE. EXPECT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND
-7C TO -10C...RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF ICE PRODUCTION. THUS CAN NOT RULE
OUT A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS TO
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO THINK THE LIGHT
PRECIP THREAT SHOULD WANE BY MORNING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK THAT EVEN IF WE DO GET FREEZING
DRIZZLE...IT WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH OF AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE CLOUDY BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TOMORROW. CLOUDS
WILL PREVENT US FROM WARMING TOO MUCH...BUT STILL THINKING WE GET
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW STRATUS TO THE BULK
OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
DECEASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S AND MAY SOAR EVEN HIGHER IF SUBSTANTIAL
CLEARING DOES OCCUR. WITHOUT MUCH LIFT IN THE CLOUD
LAYER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL...BUT WITH CLOUD TOPS
TOO WARM FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...FLURRIES ARE NOT EXPECTED. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD DEPTH IS A BIT TOO MARGINAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS
OF NORTHWEST IOWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AT THIS TIME...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

POTENT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
DIGS INTO NORTH DAKOTA. STILL LOOKING AT SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PRECIPITATION TIMING IS SOMEWHAT LOW. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE AN INITIAL WAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE GEM AND NAM AROUND 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS.
WITH THIS WAVE SOME BROAD LIFT NOSES INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD ALLOW
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE THE MILD AIR ALOFT ERODES. EXPECT A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE. WITH THE BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO OUR EAST...ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND PRELIMINARILY IT LOOKS LIKE
SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY MINIMAL.

SECONDARY WAVE FOLLOWS QUICKLY ON MONDAY...SLOWS AND DEEPENS OVER
THE MID AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM
IS THE OUTLIER WITH A WEAKER OPEN WAVE AND WAS THEREFORE DISCARDED.
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW
CENTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. IT SLOWLY WOBBLES OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION IMPACTING OUR AREA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. WITH A MORE EASTERN TRACK...THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION FOR US WILL BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX ON MONDAY TO SWITCH ENTIRELY TO
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
MILD IN THE 30S...AND COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
TUESDAY.

STRATUS CLOUDS STICK AROUND THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE DIVING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN HALF. COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION
MID WEEK DROPPING READINGS BACK BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERALLY SEEING MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND VFR TO THE
EAST. HOWEVER EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO EXPAND EAST AND COVER THE
REGION BY LATER TODAY. THESE LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE AREAS THAT GO IFR...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON WHEN AND WHERE IS LOW...SO WILL KEEP THE TAFS MVFR.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
TONIGHT...SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KUNR 182139
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
ERODING OF THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN S
DAKOTA...WITH MOST OF THE CWA NOW SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY INTO THE 20S AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. TOMORROW A WEEK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AND EXPECT ONLY SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THIS
SHOULD NOT IMPEDE MUCH ON WARMING WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE MID RANGE OF THE FORECAST DEAL WITH
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING SATURDAY MORNING AND WITH
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO THE PATTERN SHIFT FOR NEXT WEEK AS IT TURNS ACTIVE FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC CROSSING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH DRY AS THERE IS A LARGE LACK OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE STILL WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM
AFTER CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TO BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF WYOMING SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS A
CLEAR DRY LAYER JUST OFF THE SURFACE SO MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
THE NAM IS NOT AS ROBUST WITH THE DRY AIR BUT WOULD INDICATE THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO AT LEAST INCLUDE A SLIGHT MENTION
OF SNOW SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLIGHT MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BEHIND THE WEAK PACIFIC FRONT THAT MOVES THOUGH SATURDAY MORNING
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL BRING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO RISE INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A QUESTION WITH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IF AND/OR HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THE SNOW COVER WILL IMPACT
TEMPERATURES. KEPT HIGHS A BIT COOLER WHERE SNOWPACK EXISTS...WHILE
OTHER AREAS SHOULD EASILY RISE INTO THE 30S AND 40S.

BY MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES
WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A FAIRLY DEEP
TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE WHICH LOOKS TO
STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS MULTIPLE WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PUSH OVER THE RIDGE AND PASS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS IS PROBLEMATIC AS IS
TYPICALLY SEEN IN THESE PATTERNS SO IT IS QUITE DIFFICULT TRYING TO
PINPOINT WHEN THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE. THIS
LEADS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MOST DAYS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW THOUGH...WILL GET UPSLOPE FLOW
OVER THE BLACK HILLS MUCH OF THE PERIOD SO AS LONG AS THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL GET SNOW TO DEVELOP AND THESE AREAS WILL
MAINTAIN THE MORE CONSISTENT AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AMOUNTS DON/T LOOK SIGNIFICANT WITH ANY OF THESE QUICK HITTING
SYSTEMS AT THIS POINT SO THE CURRENT FORECAST JUST HAS LIGHT AMOUNTS
CURRENTLY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MODELS ARE DIGGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. IF THIS HOLDS OUT...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONE THING THAT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING OFF BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS...AND COLDER BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH KRAP AND KGCC EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STRATUS/FOG HAS LIFTED THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THE STRATUS/FOG TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE KRAP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MASEK










000
FXUS63 KUNR 182139
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
ERODING OF THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN S
DAKOTA...WITH MOST OF THE CWA NOW SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY INTO THE 20S AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. TOMORROW A WEEK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AND EXPECT ONLY SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THIS
SHOULD NOT IMPEDE MUCH ON WARMING WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE MID RANGE OF THE FORECAST DEAL WITH
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING SATURDAY MORNING AND WITH
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO THE PATTERN SHIFT FOR NEXT WEEK AS IT TURNS ACTIVE FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC CROSSING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH DRY AS THERE IS A LARGE LACK OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE STILL WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM
AFTER CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS TO BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF WYOMING SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS A
CLEAR DRY LAYER JUST OFF THE SURFACE SO MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
THE NAM IS NOT AS ROBUST WITH THE DRY AIR BUT WOULD INDICATE THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO AT LEAST INCLUDE A SLIGHT MENTION
OF SNOW SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLIGHT MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BEHIND THE WEAK PACIFIC FRONT THAT MOVES THOUGH SATURDAY MORNING
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL BRING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO RISE INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A QUESTION WITH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IF AND/OR HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THE SNOW COVER WILL IMPACT
TEMPERATURES. KEPT HIGHS A BIT COOLER WHERE SNOWPACK EXISTS...WHILE
OTHER AREAS SHOULD EASILY RISE INTO THE 30S AND 40S.

BY MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES
WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A FAIRLY DEEP
TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE WHICH LOOKS TO
STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS MULTIPLE WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PUSH OVER THE RIDGE AND PASS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS IS PROBLEMATIC AS IS
TYPICALLY SEEN IN THESE PATTERNS SO IT IS QUITE DIFFICULT TRYING TO
PINPOINT WHEN THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE. THIS
LEADS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MOST DAYS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW THOUGH...WILL GET UPSLOPE FLOW
OVER THE BLACK HILLS MUCH OF THE PERIOD SO AS LONG AS THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL GET SNOW TO DEVELOP AND THESE AREAS WILL
MAINTAIN THE MORE CONSISTENT AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AMOUNTS DON/T LOOK SIGNIFICANT WITH ANY OF THESE QUICK HITTING
SYSTEMS AT THIS POINT SO THE CURRENT FORECAST JUST HAS LIGHT AMOUNTS
CURRENTLY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MODELS ARE DIGGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. IF THIS HOLDS OUT...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONE THING THAT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING OFF BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS...AND COLDER BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH KRAP AND KGCC EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STRATUS/FOG HAS LIFTED THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THE STRATUS/FOG TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE KRAP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MASEK









000
FXUS63 KABR 182124
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
324 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. A REPORT FROM THE HIGHWAY PATROL...AS WELL AS DOT WEB-
CAMS SUGGEST THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT HAVING AN IMPACT OF ROAD
CONDITIONS. THUS NO HEADLINE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY 3Z WITH PCPN ENDING BY THEN. THAT
SAID...THE RAPID REFRESH AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST THE LOW STRATUS
DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THIS CWA DRY AS MOST OF THE LLM AND
LIFT IS LOCATED IN NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MEAN PRECIP
STARTS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. IT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
IN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND CAA BEHIND THE LOW...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW TOTAL BY TUE MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE AND WED MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD. MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. 0Z RUNS HAD PRECIP MOVING UP INTO THE DAKOTAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY BUT SUBSEQUENT 12Z RUNS ARE KEEPING ALL PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR NOW STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CWA UNTIL AROUND 21Z.
IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. VSBYS MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL TO IFR LEVELS DUE TO FOG
UNDER THE LOW CLOUD COVER.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




000
FXUS63 KABR 182124
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
324 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. A REPORT FROM THE HIGHWAY PATROL...AS WELL AS DOT WEB-
CAMS SUGGEST THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT HAVING AN IMPACT OF ROAD
CONDITIONS. THUS NO HEADLINE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY 3Z WITH PCPN ENDING BY THEN. THAT
SAID...THE RAPID REFRESH AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST THE LOW STRATUS
DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THIS CWA DRY AS MOST OF THE LLM AND
LIFT IS LOCATED IN NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MEAN PRECIP
STARTS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. IT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
IN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND CAA BEHIND THE LOW...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW TOTAL BY TUE MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE AND WED MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD. MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. 0Z RUNS HAD PRECIP MOVING UP INTO THE DAKOTAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY BUT SUBSEQUENT 12Z RUNS ARE KEEPING ALL PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR NOW STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CWA UNTIL AROUND 21Z.
IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. VSBYS MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL TO IFR LEVELS DUE TO FOG
UNDER THE LOW CLOUD COVER.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KUNR 181746
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1046 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MT...AND WINDS ACROSS THE CWA ARE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY. LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE FOG AROUND THE HILLS SEEMS
TO BE RETREATING A BIT. WILL LEAVE AREAS OF FOG AROUND THE HILLS
THROUGH EARLY MORNING IN CASE IT FILLS IN. ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR THE SD PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.

FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD TODAY AS WESTERLY BL WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY...AND WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN TO THE SEASONABLE 30S...WITH SOME 40S ON
THE DOWNSLOPING EASTERN FOOTHILLS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS.

AN UPPER WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK FAIRLY DRY...AND SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN
SOME CLOUDS FROM THE WAVE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN SIMILAR WITH THE LARGER
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOWING A
RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF DIGGING
AND CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INITIAL
DIGGING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW
POSSIBLE. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOW TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR THE BLACK HILLS...WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...SIGNIFICANT DIGGING TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ECMWF/GFS DIFFER SOME IN
STRENGTH/TRACK AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...BUT BOTH OFFER UP
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH KRAP AND KGCC EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STRATUS/FOG HAS LIFTED THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THE STRATUS/FOG TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE KRAP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...MASEK






000
FXUS63 KUNR 181746
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1046 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MT...AND WINDS ACROSS THE CWA ARE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY. LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE FOG AROUND THE HILLS SEEMS
TO BE RETREATING A BIT. WILL LEAVE AREAS OF FOG AROUND THE HILLS
THROUGH EARLY MORNING IN CASE IT FILLS IN. ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR THE SD PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.

FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD TODAY AS WESTERLY BL WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY...AND WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN TO THE SEASONABLE 30S...WITH SOME 40S ON
THE DOWNSLOPING EASTERN FOOTHILLS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS.

AN UPPER WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK FAIRLY DRY...AND SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN
SOME CLOUDS FROM THE WAVE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN SIMILAR WITH THE LARGER
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOWING A
RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF DIGGING
AND CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INITIAL
DIGGING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW
POSSIBLE. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOW TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR THE BLACK HILLS...WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...SIGNIFICANT DIGGING TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ECMWF/GFS DIFFER SOME IN
STRENGTH/TRACK AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...BUT BOTH OFFER UP
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH KRAP AND KGCC EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STRATUS/FOG HAS LIFTED THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THE STRATUS/FOG TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE KRAP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...MASEK





000
FXUS63 KFSD 181741
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1141 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HIGH PRESSURE
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.  SYSTEM TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CWA
SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF 20 POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.
RIGHT NOW I FEEL WE WILL MAINLY SEE CLOUDS AS MODELS SATURATE THE
MID LEVELS BUT NEVER GET MUCH LOWER SO AS EARLIER SHIFT
MENTIONED...ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER TO MAKE
IT TO THE SURFACE.  CONTINUE TO BELIEVE AS WELL THAT PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW VERSUS DRIZZLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CLOUD COVER IS NOT GOING TO GO AWAY
AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.  RIGHT NOW...I WOULD NOT SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH
OF THE CWA EAST OF MITCHELL TO BE STRATUSED IN FOR PERIOD OF TIME AS
WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.  LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK FLOW OR MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW THE STRATUS TO SELF PERPETUATING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE PERSISTENCE OF
STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY 925 MB FLOW STREAMING INTO THE REGION
UNDER WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ALL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD
THIS SOLUTION...SO KEPT A MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO...MORESO IN OUR
EAST...FOR BOTH DAYS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE WITH
THESE CLOUDS...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND LIFT WEAK SO
DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. DID INTRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND LIFT IS ENHANCED
BY A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. DOES APPEAR THAT
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH AT THAT POINT THAT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE A THREAT. BY EARLY ON SUNDAY MAY BE ABLE TO GET RID
OF SOME OF THE STRATUS AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME SUBTLE
WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS GO FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON
FRIDAY TO MID AND UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE TEENS AND 20S
WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE EAST WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER
CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST PER THE ABOVE DISCUSSION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD AND DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND THUS OFFERS A COOLER SOLUTION...THOUGH
BOTH MODELS HAVE PLUS 0 C TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHWEST...SO INCLUDED A THREAT OF SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD. BY MONDAY BOTH MODELS HAVE THERMAL PROFILES
COOLING...SO IT SEEMS THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD MAINLY COME DOWN
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON THAT DAY. WITH CURRENT EXPECTED HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON MONDAY INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR WORDING
IN THE FORECAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL LINGER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THERMAL PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW AT THAT POINT. BY WEDNESDAY SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY WITH EVEN COOLER AIR BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERALLY SEEING MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND VFR TO THE
EAST. HOWEVER EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO EXPAND EAST AND COVER THE
REGION BY LATER TODAY. THESE LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE AREAS THAT GO IFR...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON WHEN AND WHERE IS LOW...SO WILL KEEP THE TAFS MVFR.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
TONIGHT...SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 181741
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1141 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HIGH PRESSURE
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.  SYSTEM TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CWA
SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF 20 POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.
RIGHT NOW I FEEL WE WILL MAINLY SEE CLOUDS AS MODELS SATURATE THE
MID LEVELS BUT NEVER GET MUCH LOWER SO AS EARLIER SHIFT
MENTIONED...ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER TO MAKE
IT TO THE SURFACE.  CONTINUE TO BELIEVE AS WELL THAT PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW VERSUS DRIZZLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CLOUD COVER IS NOT GOING TO GO AWAY
AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.  RIGHT NOW...I WOULD NOT SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH
OF THE CWA EAST OF MITCHELL TO BE STRATUSED IN FOR PERIOD OF TIME AS
WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.  LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK FLOW OR MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW THE STRATUS TO SELF PERPETUATING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE PERSISTENCE OF
STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY 925 MB FLOW STREAMING INTO THE REGION
UNDER WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ALL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD
THIS SOLUTION...SO KEPT A MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO...MORESO IN OUR
EAST...FOR BOTH DAYS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE WITH
THESE CLOUDS...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND LIFT WEAK SO
DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. DID INTRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND LIFT IS ENHANCED
BY A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. DOES APPEAR THAT
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH AT THAT POINT THAT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE A THREAT. BY EARLY ON SUNDAY MAY BE ABLE TO GET RID
OF SOME OF THE STRATUS AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME SUBTLE
WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS GO FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON
FRIDAY TO MID AND UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE TEENS AND 20S
WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE EAST WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER
CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST PER THE ABOVE DISCUSSION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD AND DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND THUS OFFERS A COOLER SOLUTION...THOUGH
BOTH MODELS HAVE PLUS 0 C TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHWEST...SO INCLUDED A THREAT OF SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD. BY MONDAY BOTH MODELS HAVE THERMAL PROFILES
COOLING...SO IT SEEMS THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD MAINLY COME DOWN
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON THAT DAY. WITH CURRENT EXPECTED HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON MONDAY INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR WORDING
IN THE FORECAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL LINGER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THERMAL PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW AT THAT POINT. BY WEDNESDAY SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY WITH EVEN COOLER AIR BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERALLY SEEING MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND VFR TO THE
EAST. HOWEVER EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO EXPAND EAST AND COVER THE
REGION BY LATER TODAY. THESE LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE AREAS THAT GO IFR...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON WHEN AND WHERE IS LOW...SO WILL KEEP THE TAFS MVFR.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
TONIGHT...SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 181741
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1141 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HIGH PRESSURE
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.  SYSTEM TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CWA
SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF 20 POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.
RIGHT NOW I FEEL WE WILL MAINLY SEE CLOUDS AS MODELS SATURATE THE
MID LEVELS BUT NEVER GET MUCH LOWER SO AS EARLIER SHIFT
MENTIONED...ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER TO MAKE
IT TO THE SURFACE.  CONTINUE TO BELIEVE AS WELL THAT PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW VERSUS DRIZZLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CLOUD COVER IS NOT GOING TO GO AWAY
AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.  RIGHT NOW...I WOULD NOT SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH
OF THE CWA EAST OF MITCHELL TO BE STRATUSED IN FOR PERIOD OF TIME AS
WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.  LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK FLOW OR MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW THE STRATUS TO SELF PERPETUATING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE PERSISTENCE OF
STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY 925 MB FLOW STREAMING INTO THE REGION
UNDER WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ALL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD
THIS SOLUTION...SO KEPT A MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO...MORESO IN OUR
EAST...FOR BOTH DAYS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE WITH
THESE CLOUDS...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND LIFT WEAK SO
DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. DID INTRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND LIFT IS ENHANCED
BY A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. DOES APPEAR THAT
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH AT THAT POINT THAT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE A THREAT. BY EARLY ON SUNDAY MAY BE ABLE TO GET RID
OF SOME OF THE STRATUS AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME SUBTLE
WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS GO FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON
FRIDAY TO MID AND UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE TEENS AND 20S
WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE EAST WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER
CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST PER THE ABOVE DISCUSSION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD AND DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND THUS OFFERS A COOLER SOLUTION...THOUGH
BOTH MODELS HAVE PLUS 0 C TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHWEST...SO INCLUDED A THREAT OF SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD. BY MONDAY BOTH MODELS HAVE THERMAL PROFILES
COOLING...SO IT SEEMS THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD MAINLY COME DOWN
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON THAT DAY. WITH CURRENT EXPECTED HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON MONDAY INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR WORDING
IN THE FORECAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL LINGER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THERMAL PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW AT THAT POINT. BY WEDNESDAY SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY WITH EVEN COOLER AIR BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERALLY SEEING MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND VFR TO THE
EAST. HOWEVER EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO EXPAND EAST AND COVER THE
REGION BY LATER TODAY. THESE LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE AREAS THAT GO IFR...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON WHEN AND WHERE IS LOW...SO WILL KEEP THE TAFS MVFR.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
TONIGHT...SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 181741
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1141 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HIGH PRESSURE
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.  SYSTEM TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CWA
SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF 20 POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.
RIGHT NOW I FEEL WE WILL MAINLY SEE CLOUDS AS MODELS SATURATE THE
MID LEVELS BUT NEVER GET MUCH LOWER SO AS EARLIER SHIFT
MENTIONED...ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER TO MAKE
IT TO THE SURFACE.  CONTINUE TO BELIEVE AS WELL THAT PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW VERSUS DRIZZLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CLOUD COVER IS NOT GOING TO GO AWAY
AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.  RIGHT NOW...I WOULD NOT SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH
OF THE CWA EAST OF MITCHELL TO BE STRATUSED IN FOR PERIOD OF TIME AS
WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.  LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK FLOW OR MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW THE STRATUS TO SELF PERPETUATING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE PERSISTENCE OF
STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY 925 MB FLOW STREAMING INTO THE REGION
UNDER WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ALL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD
THIS SOLUTION...SO KEPT A MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO...MORESO IN OUR
EAST...FOR BOTH DAYS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE WITH
THESE CLOUDS...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND LIFT WEAK SO
DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. DID INTRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND LIFT IS ENHANCED
BY A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. DOES APPEAR THAT
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH AT THAT POINT THAT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE A THREAT. BY EARLY ON SUNDAY MAY BE ABLE TO GET RID
OF SOME OF THE STRATUS AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME SUBTLE
WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS GO FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON
FRIDAY TO MID AND UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE TEENS AND 20S
WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE EAST WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER
CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST PER THE ABOVE DISCUSSION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD AND DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND THUS OFFERS A COOLER SOLUTION...THOUGH
BOTH MODELS HAVE PLUS 0 C TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHWEST...SO INCLUDED A THREAT OF SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD. BY MONDAY BOTH MODELS HAVE THERMAL PROFILES
COOLING...SO IT SEEMS THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD MAINLY COME DOWN
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON THAT DAY. WITH CURRENT EXPECTED HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON MONDAY INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR WORDING
IN THE FORECAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL LINGER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THERMAL PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW AT THAT POINT. BY WEDNESDAY SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY WITH EVEN COOLER AIR BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERALLY SEEING MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND VFR TO THE
EAST. HOWEVER EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO EXPAND EAST AND COVER THE
REGION BY LATER TODAY. THESE LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE AREAS THAT GO IFR...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON WHEN AND WHERE IS LOW...SO WILL KEEP THE TAFS MVFR.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
TONIGHT...SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KABR 181727 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1127 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PUSH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
ONLY A LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION IN WHICH WE WILL SEE
SATURATION/LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. OTHERWISE THIS
WEAK UPPER TROFS PASSAGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY MAINLY THESE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES THOUGH THE DAY BUT
MIGHT JUST AS WELL SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES.

LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DOMINATE TEMPERATURES. THE WARM ADVECTION
PUSH WILL TAKE H925 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND -10C THIS AM TO
AROUND +/-3C TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY.



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WHERE THE LOW CLOSES
OFF...AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS
AND GEM SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THESE
LARGE DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
AND KEEP SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT GFS AND GEM SHOW RIGHT AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
WEST TO AROUND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE EAST...FALLING OVER ABOUT A
48 HOUR PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIODS LOOK DRY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY
IN THE TEENS.




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CWA UNTIL AROUND 21Z.
IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. VSBYS MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL TO IFR LEVELS DUE TO FOG
UNDER THE LOW CLOUD COVER.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 181727 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1127 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PUSH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
ONLY A LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION IN WHICH WE WILL SEE
SATURATION/LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. OTHERWISE THIS
WEAK UPPER TROFS PASSAGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY MAINLY THESE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES THOUGH THE DAY BUT
MIGHT JUST AS WELL SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES.

LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DOMINATE TEMPERATURES. THE WARM ADVECTION
PUSH WILL TAKE H925 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND -10C THIS AM TO
AROUND +/-3C TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY.



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WHERE THE LOW CLOSES
OFF...AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS
AND GEM SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THESE
LARGE DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
AND KEEP SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT GFS AND GEM SHOW RIGHT AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
WEST TO AROUND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE EAST...FALLING OVER ABOUT A
48 HOUR PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIODS LOOK DRY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY
IN THE TEENS.




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CWA UNTIL AROUND 21Z.
IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. VSBYS MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL TO IFR LEVELS DUE TO FOG
UNDER THE LOW CLOUD COVER.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 181727 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1127 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PUSH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
ONLY A LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION IN WHICH WE WILL SEE
SATURATION/LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. OTHERWISE THIS
WEAK UPPER TROFS PASSAGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY MAINLY THESE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES THOUGH THE DAY BUT
MIGHT JUST AS WELL SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES.

LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DOMINATE TEMPERATURES. THE WARM ADVECTION
PUSH WILL TAKE H925 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND -10C THIS AM TO
AROUND +/-3C TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY.



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WHERE THE LOW CLOSES
OFF...AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS
AND GEM SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THESE
LARGE DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
AND KEEP SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT GFS AND GEM SHOW RIGHT AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
WEST TO AROUND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE EAST...FALLING OVER ABOUT A
48 HOUR PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIODS LOOK DRY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY
IN THE TEENS.




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CWA UNTIL AROUND 21Z.
IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. VSBYS MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL TO IFR LEVELS DUE TO FOG
UNDER THE LOW CLOUD COVER.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 181727 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1127 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PUSH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
ONLY A LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION IN WHICH WE WILL SEE
SATURATION/LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. OTHERWISE THIS
WEAK UPPER TROFS PASSAGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY MAINLY THESE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES THOUGH THE DAY BUT
MIGHT JUST AS WELL SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES.

LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DOMINATE TEMPERATURES. THE WARM ADVECTION
PUSH WILL TAKE H925 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND -10C THIS AM TO
AROUND +/-3C TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY.



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WHERE THE LOW CLOSES
OFF...AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS
AND GEM SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THESE
LARGE DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
AND KEEP SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT GFS AND GEM SHOW RIGHT AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
WEST TO AROUND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE EAST...FALLING OVER ABOUT A
48 HOUR PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIODS LOOK DRY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY
IN THE TEENS.




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CWA UNTIL AROUND 21Z.
IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. VSBYS MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL TO IFR LEVELS DUE TO FOG
UNDER THE LOW CLOUD COVER.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 181623 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1023 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS GOOD OVERALL.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST. THE BIGGEST ISSUE THIS
MORNING WAS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN CORSON AND DEWEY COUNTIES.
WEB-CAMS PLUS ROAD REPORTS SUGGEST THERE WAS SOME ICE THIS MORNING.
WALWORTH COUNTY REPORTED NO ICY ROADS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS FOR A POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE HEADLINE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PUSH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
ONLY A LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION IN WHICH WE WILL SEE
SATURATION/LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. OTHERWISE THIS
WEAK UPPER TROFS PASSAGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY MAINLY THESE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES THOUGH THE DAY BUT
MIGHT JUST AS WELL SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES.

LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DOMINATE TEMPERATURES. THE WARM ADVECTION
PUSH WILL TAKE H925 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND -10C THIS AM TO
AROUND +/-3C TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WHERE THE LOW CLOSES
OFF...AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS
AND GEM SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THESE
LARGE DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
AND KEEP SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT GFS AND GEM SHOW RIGHT AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
WEST TO AROUND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE EAST...FALLING OVER ABOUT A
48 HOUR PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIODS LOOK DRY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY
IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AFFECTING THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS ACROSS THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. VSBYS MAY
OCCASIONALLY FALL TO MVFR LEVELS DUE TO FOG UNDER THE LOW CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




000
FXUS63 KABR 181623 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1023 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS GOOD OVERALL.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST. THE BIGGEST ISSUE THIS
MORNING WAS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN CORSON AND DEWEY COUNTIES.
WEB-CAMS PLUS ROAD REPORTS SUGGEST THERE WAS SOME ICE THIS MORNING.
WALWORTH COUNTY REPORTED NO ICY ROADS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS FOR A POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE HEADLINE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PUSH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
ONLY A LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION IN WHICH WE WILL SEE
SATURATION/LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. OTHERWISE THIS
WEAK UPPER TROFS PASSAGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY MAINLY THESE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES THOUGH THE DAY BUT
MIGHT JUST AS WELL SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES.

LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DOMINATE TEMPERATURES. THE WARM ADVECTION
PUSH WILL TAKE H925 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND -10C THIS AM TO
AROUND +/-3C TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WHERE THE LOW CLOSES
OFF...AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS
AND GEM SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THESE
LARGE DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
AND KEEP SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT GFS AND GEM SHOW RIGHT AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
WEST TO AROUND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE EAST...FALLING OVER ABOUT A
48 HOUR PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIODS LOOK DRY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY
IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AFFECTING THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS ACROSS THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. VSBYS MAY
OCCASIONALLY FALL TO MVFR LEVELS DUE TO FOG UNDER THE LOW CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




000
FXUS63 KABR 181623 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1023 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS GOOD OVERALL.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST. THE BIGGEST ISSUE THIS
MORNING WAS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN CORSON AND DEWEY COUNTIES.
WEB-CAMS PLUS ROAD REPORTS SUGGEST THERE WAS SOME ICE THIS MORNING.
WALWORTH COUNTY REPORTED NO ICY ROADS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS FOR A POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE HEADLINE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PUSH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
ONLY A LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION IN WHICH WE WILL SEE
SATURATION/LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. OTHERWISE THIS
WEAK UPPER TROFS PASSAGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY MAINLY THESE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES THOUGH THE DAY BUT
MIGHT JUST AS WELL SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES.

LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DOMINATE TEMPERATURES. THE WARM ADVECTION
PUSH WILL TAKE H925 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND -10C THIS AM TO
AROUND +/-3C TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WHERE THE LOW CLOSES
OFF...AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS
AND GEM SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THESE
LARGE DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
AND KEEP SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT GFS AND GEM SHOW RIGHT AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
WEST TO AROUND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE EAST...FALLING OVER ABOUT A
48 HOUR PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIODS LOOK DRY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY
IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AFFECTING THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS ACROSS THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. VSBYS MAY
OCCASIONALLY FALL TO MVFR LEVELS DUE TO FOG UNDER THE LOW CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




000
FXUS63 KABR 181623 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1023 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS GOOD OVERALL.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST. THE BIGGEST ISSUE THIS
MORNING WAS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN CORSON AND DEWEY COUNTIES.
WEB-CAMS PLUS ROAD REPORTS SUGGEST THERE WAS SOME ICE THIS MORNING.
WALWORTH COUNTY REPORTED NO ICY ROADS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS FOR A POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE HEADLINE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PUSH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
ONLY A LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION IN WHICH WE WILL SEE
SATURATION/LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. OTHERWISE THIS
WEAK UPPER TROFS PASSAGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY MAINLY THESE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES THOUGH THE DAY BUT
MIGHT JUST AS WELL SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES.

LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DOMINATE TEMPERATURES. THE WARM ADVECTION
PUSH WILL TAKE H925 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND -10C THIS AM TO
AROUND +/-3C TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WHERE THE LOW CLOSES
OFF...AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS
AND GEM SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THESE
LARGE DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
AND KEEP SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT GFS AND GEM SHOW RIGHT AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
WEST TO AROUND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE EAST...FALLING OVER ABOUT A
48 HOUR PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIODS LOOK DRY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY
IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AFFECTING THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS ACROSS THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. VSBYS MAY
OCCASIONALLY FALL TO MVFR LEVELS DUE TO FOG UNDER THE LOW CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 181126
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
526 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HIGH PRESSURE
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.  SYSTEM TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CWA
SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF 20 POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.
RIGHT NOW I FEEL WE WILL MAINLY SEE CLOUDS AS MODELS SATURATE THE
MID LEVELS BUT NEVER GET MUCH LOWER SO AS EARLIER SHIFT
MENTIONED...ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER TO MAKE
IT TO THE SURFACE.  CONTINUE TO BELIEVE AS WELL THAT PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW VERSUS DRIZZLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CLOUD COVER IS NOT GOING TO GO AWAY
AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.  RIGHT NOW...I WOULD NOT SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH
OF THE CWA EAST OF MITCHELL TO BE STRATUSED IN FOR PERIOD OF TIME AS
WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.  LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK FLOW OR MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW THE STRATUS TO SELF PERPETUATING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE PERSISTENCE OF
STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY 925 MB FLOW STREAMING INTO THE REGION
UNDER WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ALL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD
THIS SOLUTION...SO KEPT A MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO...MORESO IN OUR
EAST...FOR BOTH DAYS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE WITH
THESE CLOUDS...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND LIFT WEAK SO
DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. DID INTRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND LIFT IS ENHANCED
BY A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. DOES APPEAR THAT
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH AT THAT POINT THAT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE A THREAT. BY EARLY ON SUNDAY MAY BE ABLE TO GET RID
OF SOME OF THE STRATUS AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME SUBTLE
WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS GO FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON
FRIDAY TO MID AND UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE TEENS AND 20S
WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE EAST WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER
CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST PER THE ABOVE DISCUSSION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD AND DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND THUS OFFERS A COOLER SOLUTION...THOUGH
BOTH MODELS HAVE PLUS 0 C TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHWEST...SO INCLUDED A THREAT OF SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD. BY MONDAY BOTH MODELS HAVE THERMAL PROFILES
COOLING...SO IT SEEMS THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD MAINLY COME DOWN
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON THAT DAY. WITH CURRENT EXPECTED HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON MONDAY INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR WORDING
IN THE FORECAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL LINGER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THERMAL PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW AT THAT POINT. BY WEDNESDAY SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY WITH EVEN COOLER AIR BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ROUTES WILL BE BRUSHED BY SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A LITTLE -SN WITH ENOUGH LIFT AROUND THE AREA. BETTER
LIKELIHOOD OF REMAINLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE LOW
SUN ANGLER AND THE LACK OF SIGNIFCANT MIXING DURING THE PERIOD.
CIGS WILL BECOM IFR WITH THE ONSET OF -SN BUT WILL REMAIN IFR OR
LOW MVFR DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HEITKAMP



000
FXUS63 KFSD 181126
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
526 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HIGH PRESSURE
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.  SYSTEM TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CWA
SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF 20 POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.
RIGHT NOW I FEEL WE WILL MAINLY SEE CLOUDS AS MODELS SATURATE THE
MID LEVELS BUT NEVER GET MUCH LOWER SO AS EARLIER SHIFT
MENTIONED...ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER TO MAKE
IT TO THE SURFACE.  CONTINUE TO BELIEVE AS WELL THAT PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW VERSUS DRIZZLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CLOUD COVER IS NOT GOING TO GO AWAY
AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.  RIGHT NOW...I WOULD NOT SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH
OF THE CWA EAST OF MITCHELL TO BE STRATUSED IN FOR PERIOD OF TIME AS
WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.  LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK FLOW OR MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW THE STRATUS TO SELF PERPETUATING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE PERSISTENCE OF
STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY 925 MB FLOW STREAMING INTO THE REGION
UNDER WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ALL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD
THIS SOLUTION...SO KEPT A MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO...MORESO IN OUR
EAST...FOR BOTH DAYS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE WITH
THESE CLOUDS...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND LIFT WEAK SO
DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. DID INTRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND LIFT IS ENHANCED
BY A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. DOES APPEAR THAT
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH AT THAT POINT THAT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE A THREAT. BY EARLY ON SUNDAY MAY BE ABLE TO GET RID
OF SOME OF THE STRATUS AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME SUBTLE
WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS GO FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON
FRIDAY TO MID AND UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE TEENS AND 20S
WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE EAST WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER
CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST PER THE ABOVE DISCUSSION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD AND DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND THUS OFFERS A COOLER SOLUTION...THOUGH
BOTH MODELS HAVE PLUS 0 C TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHWEST...SO INCLUDED A THREAT OF SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD. BY MONDAY BOTH MODELS HAVE THERMAL PROFILES
COOLING...SO IT SEEMS THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD MAINLY COME DOWN
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON THAT DAY. WITH CURRENT EXPECTED HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON MONDAY INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR WORDING
IN THE FORECAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL LINGER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THERMAL PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW AT THAT POINT. BY WEDNESDAY SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY WITH EVEN COOLER AIR BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ROUTES WILL BE BRUSHED BY SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A LITTLE -SN WITH ENOUGH LIFT AROUND THE AREA. BETTER
LIKELIHOOD OF REMAINLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE LOW
SUN ANGLER AND THE LACK OF SIGNIFCANT MIXING DURING THE PERIOD.
CIGS WILL BECOM IFR WITH THE ONSET OF -SN BUT WILL REMAIN IFR OR
LOW MVFR DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HEITKAMP




000
FXUS63 KABR 181123 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
523 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PUSH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
ONLY A LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION IN WHICH WE WILL SEE
SATURATION/LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. OTHERWISE THIS
WEAK UPPER TROFS PASSAGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY MAINLY THESE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES THOUGH THE DAY BUT
MIGHT JUST AS WELL SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES.

LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DOMINATE TEMPERATURES. THE WARM ADVECTION
PUSH WILL TAKE H925 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND -10C THIS AM TO
AROUND +/-3C TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WHERE THE LOW CLOSES
OFF...AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS
AND GEM SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THESE
LARGE DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
AND KEEP SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT GFS AND GEM SHOW RIGHT AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
WEST TO AROUND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE EAST...FALLING OVER ABOUT A
48 HOUR PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIODS LOOK DRY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY
IN THE TEENS.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AFFECTING THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS ACROSS THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. VSBYS MAY
OCCASIONALLY FALL TO MVFR LEVELS DUE TO FOG UNDER THE LOW CLOUD
COVER.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 181123 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
523 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PUSH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
ONLY A LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION IN WHICH WE WILL SEE
SATURATION/LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. OTHERWISE THIS
WEAK UPPER TROFS PASSAGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY MAINLY THESE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES THOUGH THE DAY BUT
MIGHT JUST AS WELL SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES.

LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DOMINATE TEMPERATURES. THE WARM ADVECTION
PUSH WILL TAKE H925 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND -10C THIS AM TO
AROUND +/-3C TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WHERE THE LOW CLOSES
OFF...AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS
AND GEM SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THESE
LARGE DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
AND KEEP SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT GFS AND GEM SHOW RIGHT AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
WEST TO AROUND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE EAST...FALLING OVER ABOUT A
48 HOUR PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIODS LOOK DRY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY
IN THE TEENS.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AFFECTING THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS ACROSS THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. VSBYS MAY
OCCASIONALLY FALL TO MVFR LEVELS DUE TO FOG UNDER THE LOW CLOUD
COVER.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 180926
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
326 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PUSH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT PROFILES
SUGGEST ONLY A LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION IN WHICH WE
WILL SEE SATURATION/LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
OTHERWISE THIS WEAK UPPER TROFS PASSAGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY
MAINLY THESE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES
THOUGH THE DAY BUT MIGHT JUST AS WELL SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT
SPRINKLES.

LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DOMINATE TEMPERATURES. THE WARM ADVECTION
PUSH WILL TAKE H925 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND -10C THIS AM TO
AROUND +/-3C TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WHERE THE LOW CLOSES
OFF...AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS
AND GEM SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THESE
LARGE DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
AND KEEP SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT GFS AND GEM SHOW RIGHT AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
WEST TO AROUND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE EAST...FALLING OVER ABOUT A
48 HOUR PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIODS LOOK DRY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY
IN THE TEENS.








&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KPIR...IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

KMBG...LOWERING MVFR STRATUS HAS PUSHED INTO THE TERMINAL AND IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE IFR FLT CAT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. SUB-VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

KABR/KATY...BKN-OVC VFR STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO THE KABR TERMINAL
AND WILL ARRIVE AT THE KATY TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THEN...THE SUB-VFR STRATUS OUT OVER KPIR/KMBG WILL EXTEND
UP INTO THE KABR/KATY TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY.

ALL FOUR TERMINALS COULD END UP SEEING SOME FLAKES OF SNOW FLYING
/OR PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL VERY FINE FREEZING MIST/ LATER TONIGHT
AND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 180926
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
326 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PUSH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT PROFILES
SUGGEST ONLY A LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION IN WHICH WE
WILL SEE SATURATION/LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
OTHERWISE THIS WEAK UPPER TROFS PASSAGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY
MAINLY THESE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES
THOUGH THE DAY BUT MIGHT JUST AS WELL SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT
SPRINKLES.

LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DOMINATE TEMPERATURES. THE WARM ADVECTION
PUSH WILL TAKE H925 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND -10C THIS AM TO
AROUND +/-3C TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WHERE THE LOW CLOSES
OFF...AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS
AND GEM SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THESE
LARGE DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
AND KEEP SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT GFS AND GEM SHOW RIGHT AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
WEST TO AROUND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE EAST...FALLING OVER ABOUT A
48 HOUR PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIODS LOOK DRY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY
IN THE TEENS.








&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KPIR...IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

KMBG...LOWERING MVFR STRATUS HAS PUSHED INTO THE TERMINAL AND IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE IFR FLT CAT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. SUB-VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

KABR/KATY...BKN-OVC VFR STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO THE KABR TERMINAL
AND WILL ARRIVE AT THE KATY TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THEN...THE SUB-VFR STRATUS OUT OVER KPIR/KMBG WILL EXTEND
UP INTO THE KABR/KATY TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY.

ALL FOUR TERMINALS COULD END UP SEEING SOME FLAKES OF SNOW FLYING
/OR PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL VERY FINE FREEZING MIST/ LATER TONIGHT
AND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 180926
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
326 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PUSH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT PROFILES
SUGGEST ONLY A LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION IN WHICH WE
WILL SEE SATURATION/LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
OTHERWISE THIS WEAK UPPER TROFS PASSAGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY
MAINLY THESE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES
THOUGH THE DAY BUT MIGHT JUST AS WELL SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT
SPRINKLES.

LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DOMINATE TEMPERATURES. THE WARM ADVECTION
PUSH WILL TAKE H925 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND -10C THIS AM TO
AROUND +/-3C TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WHERE THE LOW CLOSES
OFF...AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS
AND GEM SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THESE
LARGE DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
AND KEEP SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT GFS AND GEM SHOW RIGHT AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
WEST TO AROUND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE EAST...FALLING OVER ABOUT A
48 HOUR PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIODS LOOK DRY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY
IN THE TEENS.








&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KPIR...IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

KMBG...LOWERING MVFR STRATUS HAS PUSHED INTO THE TERMINAL AND IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE IFR FLT CAT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. SUB-VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

KABR/KATY...BKN-OVC VFR STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO THE KABR TERMINAL
AND WILL ARRIVE AT THE KATY TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THEN...THE SUB-VFR STRATUS OUT OVER KPIR/KMBG WILL EXTEND
UP INTO THE KABR/KATY TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY.

ALL FOUR TERMINALS COULD END UP SEEING SOME FLAKES OF SNOW FLYING
/OR PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL VERY FINE FREEZING MIST/ LATER TONIGHT
AND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 180926
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
326 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PUSH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT PROFILES
SUGGEST ONLY A LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION IN WHICH WE
WILL SEE SATURATION/LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
OTHERWISE THIS WEAK UPPER TROFS PASSAGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY
MAINLY THESE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES
THOUGH THE DAY BUT MIGHT JUST AS WELL SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT
SPRINKLES.

LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DOMINATE TEMPERATURES. THE WARM ADVECTION
PUSH WILL TAKE H925 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND -10C THIS AM TO
AROUND +/-3C TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WHERE THE LOW CLOSES
OFF...AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS
AND GEM SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THESE
LARGE DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
AND KEEP SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT GFS AND GEM SHOW RIGHT AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
WEST TO AROUND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE EAST...FALLING OVER ABOUT A
48 HOUR PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIODS LOOK DRY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY
IN THE TEENS.








&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KPIR...IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

KMBG...LOWERING MVFR STRATUS HAS PUSHED INTO THE TERMINAL AND IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE IFR FLT CAT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. SUB-VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

KABR/KATY...BKN-OVC VFR STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO THE KABR TERMINAL
AND WILL ARRIVE AT THE KATY TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THEN...THE SUB-VFR STRATUS OUT OVER KPIR/KMBG WILL EXTEND
UP INTO THE KABR/KATY TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY.

ALL FOUR TERMINALS COULD END UP SEEING SOME FLAKES OF SNOW FLYING
/OR PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL VERY FINE FREEZING MIST/ LATER TONIGHT
AND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 180915
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
315 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HIGH PRESSURE
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.  SYSTEM TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CWA
SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF 20 POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.
RIGHT NOW I FEEL WE WILL MAINLY SEE CLOUDS AS MODELS SATURATE THE
MID LEVELS BUT NEVER GET MUCH LOWER SO AS EARLIER SHIFT
MENTIONED...ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER TO MAKE
IT TO THE SURFACE.  CONTINUE TO BELIEVE AS WELL THAT PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW VERSUS DRIZZLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CLOUD COVER IS NOT GOING TO GO AWAY
AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.  RIGHT NOW...I WOULD NOT SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH
OF THE CWA EAST OF MITCHELL TO BE STRATUSED IN FOR PERIOD OF TIME AS
WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.  LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK FLOW OR MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW THE STRATUS TO SELF PERPETUATING.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE PERSISTENCE OF
STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY 925 MB FLOW STREAMING INTO THE REGION
UNDER WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ALL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD
THIS SOLUTION...SO KEPT A MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO...MORESO IN OUR
EAST...FOR BOTH DAYS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE WITH
THESE CLOUDS...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND LIFT WEAK SO
DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. DID INTRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND LIFT IS ENHANCED
BY A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. DOES APPEAR THAT
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH AT THAT POINT THAT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE A THREAT. BY EARLY ON SUNDAY MAY BE ABLE TO GET RID
OF SOME OF THE STRATUS AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME SUBTLE
WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS GO FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON
FRIDAY TO MID AND UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE TEENS AND 20S
WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE EAST WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER
CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST PER THE ABOVE DISCUSSION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD AND DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND THUS OFFERS A COOLER SOLUTION...THOUGH
BOTH MODELS HAVE PLUS 0 C TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHWEST...SO INCLUDED A THREAT OF SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD. BY MONDAY BOTH MODELS HAVE THERMAL PROFILES
COOLING...SO IT SEEMS THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD MAINLY COME DOWN
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON THAT DAY. WITH CURRENT EXPECTED HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON MONDAY INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR WORDING
IN THE FORECAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL LINGER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THERMAL PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW AT THAT POINT. BY WEDNESDAY SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY WITH EVEN COOLER AIR BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. MAY SEE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW SPREAD IN SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREAD A LITTLE FURHTER NORTH. DONT EXPECT ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT CEILINGS COULD GO IFR WITH THE -SN AND THEN
STRATUS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HEITKAMP



000
FXUS63 KFSD 180915
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
315 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HIGH PRESSURE
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.  SYSTEM TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CWA
SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF 20 POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.
RIGHT NOW I FEEL WE WILL MAINLY SEE CLOUDS AS MODELS SATURATE THE
MID LEVELS BUT NEVER GET MUCH LOWER SO AS EARLIER SHIFT
MENTIONED...ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER TO MAKE
IT TO THE SURFACE.  CONTINUE TO BELIEVE AS WELL THAT PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW VERSUS DRIZZLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CLOUD COVER IS NOT GOING TO GO AWAY
AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.  RIGHT NOW...I WOULD NOT SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH
OF THE CWA EAST OF MITCHELL TO BE STRATUSED IN FOR PERIOD OF TIME AS
WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.  LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK FLOW OR MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW THE STRATUS TO SELF PERPETUATING.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE PERSISTENCE OF
STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY 925 MB FLOW STREAMING INTO THE REGION
UNDER WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ALL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD
THIS SOLUTION...SO KEPT A MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO...MORESO IN OUR
EAST...FOR BOTH DAYS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE WITH
THESE CLOUDS...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND LIFT WEAK SO
DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. DID INTRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND LIFT IS ENHANCED
BY A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. DOES APPEAR THAT
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH AT THAT POINT THAT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE A THREAT. BY EARLY ON SUNDAY MAY BE ABLE TO GET RID
OF SOME OF THE STRATUS AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME SUBTLE
WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS GO FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON
FRIDAY TO MID AND UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE TEENS AND 20S
WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE EAST WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER
CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST PER THE ABOVE DISCUSSION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD AND DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND THUS OFFERS A COOLER SOLUTION...THOUGH
BOTH MODELS HAVE PLUS 0 C TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHWEST...SO INCLUDED A THREAT OF SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD. BY MONDAY BOTH MODELS HAVE THERMAL PROFILES
COOLING...SO IT SEEMS THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD MAINLY COME DOWN
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON THAT DAY. WITH CURRENT EXPECTED HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON MONDAY INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR WORDING
IN THE FORECAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL LINGER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THERMAL PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW AT THAT POINT. BY WEDNESDAY SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY WITH EVEN COOLER AIR BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. MAY SEE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW SPREAD IN SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREAD A LITTLE FURHTER NORTH. DONT EXPECT ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT CEILINGS COULD GO IFR WITH THE -SN AND THEN
STRATUS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HEITKAMP




000
FXUS63 KFSD 180915
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
315 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HIGH PRESSURE
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.  SYSTEM TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CWA
SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF 20 POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.
RIGHT NOW I FEEL WE WILL MAINLY SEE CLOUDS AS MODELS SATURATE THE
MID LEVELS BUT NEVER GET MUCH LOWER SO AS EARLIER SHIFT
MENTIONED...ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER TO MAKE
IT TO THE SURFACE.  CONTINUE TO BELIEVE AS WELL THAT PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW VERSUS DRIZZLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CLOUD COVER IS NOT GOING TO GO AWAY
AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.  RIGHT NOW...I WOULD NOT SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH
OF THE CWA EAST OF MITCHELL TO BE STRATUSED IN FOR PERIOD OF TIME AS
WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.  LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK FLOW OR MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW THE STRATUS TO SELF PERPETUATING.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE PERSISTENCE OF
STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY 925 MB FLOW STREAMING INTO THE REGION
UNDER WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ALL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD
THIS SOLUTION...SO KEPT A MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO...MORESO IN OUR
EAST...FOR BOTH DAYS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE WITH
THESE CLOUDS...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND LIFT WEAK SO
DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. DID INTRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND LIFT IS ENHANCED
BY A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. DOES APPEAR THAT
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH AT THAT POINT THAT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE A THREAT. BY EARLY ON SUNDAY MAY BE ABLE TO GET RID
OF SOME OF THE STRATUS AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME SUBTLE
WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS GO FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON
FRIDAY TO MID AND UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE TEENS AND 20S
WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE EAST WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER
CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST PER THE ABOVE DISCUSSION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD AND DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND THUS OFFERS A COOLER SOLUTION...THOUGH
BOTH MODELS HAVE PLUS 0 C TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHWEST...SO INCLUDED A THREAT OF SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD. BY MONDAY BOTH MODELS HAVE THERMAL PROFILES
COOLING...SO IT SEEMS THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD MAINLY COME DOWN
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON THAT DAY. WITH CURRENT EXPECTED HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON MONDAY INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR WORDING
IN THE FORECAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL LINGER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THERMAL PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW AT THAT POINT. BY WEDNESDAY SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY WITH EVEN COOLER AIR BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. MAY SEE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW SPREAD IN SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREAD A LITTLE FURHTER NORTH. DONT EXPECT ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT CEILINGS COULD GO IFR WITH THE -SN AND THEN
STRATUS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HEITKAMP



000
FXUS63 KFSD 180915
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
315 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HIGH PRESSURE
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.  SYSTEM TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CWA
SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF 20 POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.
RIGHT NOW I FEEL WE WILL MAINLY SEE CLOUDS AS MODELS SATURATE THE
MID LEVELS BUT NEVER GET MUCH LOWER SO AS EARLIER SHIFT
MENTIONED...ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER TO MAKE
IT TO THE SURFACE.  CONTINUE TO BELIEVE AS WELL THAT PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW VERSUS DRIZZLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CLOUD COVER IS NOT GOING TO GO AWAY
AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.  RIGHT NOW...I WOULD NOT SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH
OF THE CWA EAST OF MITCHELL TO BE STRATUSED IN FOR PERIOD OF TIME AS
WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.  LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK FLOW OR MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW THE STRATUS TO SELF PERPETUATING.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE PERSISTENCE OF
STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY 925 MB FLOW STREAMING INTO THE REGION
UNDER WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ALL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD
THIS SOLUTION...SO KEPT A MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO...MORESO IN OUR
EAST...FOR BOTH DAYS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE WITH
THESE CLOUDS...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND LIFT WEAK SO
DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. DID INTRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND LIFT IS ENHANCED
BY A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. DOES APPEAR THAT
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH AT THAT POINT THAT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE A THREAT. BY EARLY ON SUNDAY MAY BE ABLE TO GET RID
OF SOME OF THE STRATUS AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME SUBTLE
WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS GO FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON
FRIDAY TO MID AND UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE TEENS AND 20S
WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE EAST WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER
CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST PER THE ABOVE DISCUSSION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD AND DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND THUS OFFERS A COOLER SOLUTION...THOUGH
BOTH MODELS HAVE PLUS 0 C TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHWEST...SO INCLUDED A THREAT OF SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD. BY MONDAY BOTH MODELS HAVE THERMAL PROFILES
COOLING...SO IT SEEMS THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD MAINLY COME DOWN
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON THAT DAY. WITH CURRENT EXPECTED HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON MONDAY INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR WORDING
IN THE FORECAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL LINGER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THERMAL PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW AT THAT POINT. BY WEDNESDAY SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY WITH EVEN COOLER AIR BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. MAY SEE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW SPREAD IN SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREAD A LITTLE FURHTER NORTH. DONT EXPECT ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT CEILINGS COULD GO IFR WITH THE -SN AND THEN
STRATUS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HEITKAMP




000
FXUS63 KUNR 180911
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
211 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MT...AND WINDS ACROSS THE CWA ARE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY. LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE FOG AROUND THE HILLS SEEMS
TO BE RETREATING A BIT. WILL LEAVE AREAS OF FOG AROUND THE HILLS
THROUGH EARLY MORNING IN CASE IT FILLS IN. ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR THE SD PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.

FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD TODAY AS WESTERLY BL WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY...AND WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN TO THE SEASONABLE 30S...WITH SOME 40S ON
THE DOWNSLOPING EASTERN FOOTHILLS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS.

AN UPPER WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK FAIRLY DRY...AND SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN
SOME CLOUDS FROM THE WAVE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN SIMILAR WITH THE LARGER
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOWING A
RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF DIGGING
AND CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INITIAL
DIGGING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW
POSSIBLE. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOW TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR THE BLACK HILLS...WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...SIGNIFICANT DIGGING TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ECMWF/GFS DIFFER SOME IN
STRENGTH/TRACK AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...BUT BOTH OFFER UP
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL DISSIPATION ALONG
WESTERN EDGE. FOG ADJACENT TO WEST/SOUTH SIDE OF BLACK HILLS WITH
LIFR VSBY WILL ALSO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. VFR FOR KGCC TERMINAL
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THE IFR CIGS AT KRAP MY
DISSIPATE PRIOR TO 14Z...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE. ANY FOG AT KRAP SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KRAP BY LATE MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 180911
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
211 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MT...AND WINDS ACROSS THE CWA ARE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY. LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE FOG AROUND THE HILLS SEEMS
TO BE RETREATING A BIT. WILL LEAVE AREAS OF FOG AROUND THE HILLS
THROUGH EARLY MORNING IN CASE IT FILLS IN. ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR THE SD PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.

FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD TODAY AS WESTERLY BL WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY...AND WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN TO THE SEASONABLE 30S...WITH SOME 40S ON
THE DOWNSLOPING EASTERN FOOTHILLS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS.

AN UPPER WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK FAIRLY DRY...AND SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN
SOME CLOUDS FROM THE WAVE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN SIMILAR WITH THE LARGER
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOWING A
RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF DIGGING
AND CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INITIAL
DIGGING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW
POSSIBLE. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOW TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR THE BLACK HILLS...WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...SIGNIFICANT DIGGING TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ECMWF/GFS DIFFER SOME IN
STRENGTH/TRACK AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...BUT BOTH OFFER UP
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL DISSIPATION ALONG
WESTERN EDGE. FOG ADJACENT TO WEST/SOUTH SIDE OF BLACK HILLS WITH
LIFR VSBY WILL ALSO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. VFR FOR KGCC TERMINAL
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THE IFR CIGS AT KRAP MY
DISSIPATE PRIOR TO 14Z...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE. ANY FOG AT KRAP SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KRAP BY LATE MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 180911
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
211 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MT...AND WINDS ACROSS THE CWA ARE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY. LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE FOG AROUND THE HILLS SEEMS
TO BE RETREATING A BIT. WILL LEAVE AREAS OF FOG AROUND THE HILLS
THROUGH EARLY MORNING IN CASE IT FILLS IN. ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR THE SD PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.

FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD TODAY AS WESTERLY BL WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY...AND WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN TO THE SEASONABLE 30S...WITH SOME 40S ON
THE DOWNSLOPING EASTERN FOOTHILLS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS.

AN UPPER WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK FAIRLY DRY...AND SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN
SOME CLOUDS FROM THE WAVE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN SIMILAR WITH THE LARGER
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOWING A
RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF DIGGING
AND CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INITIAL
DIGGING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW
POSSIBLE. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOW TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR THE BLACK HILLS...WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...SIGNIFICANT DIGGING TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ECMWF/GFS DIFFER SOME IN
STRENGTH/TRACK AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...BUT BOTH OFFER UP
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL DISSIPATION ALONG
WESTERN EDGE. FOG ADJACENT TO WEST/SOUTH SIDE OF BLACK HILLS WITH
LIFR VSBY WILL ALSO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. VFR FOR KGCC TERMINAL
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THE IFR CIGS AT KRAP MY
DISSIPATE PRIOR TO 14Z...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE. ANY FOG AT KRAP SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KRAP BY LATE MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 180911
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
211 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MT...AND WINDS ACROSS THE CWA ARE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY. LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE FOG AROUND THE HILLS SEEMS
TO BE RETREATING A BIT. WILL LEAVE AREAS OF FOG AROUND THE HILLS
THROUGH EARLY MORNING IN CASE IT FILLS IN. ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR THE SD PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.

FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD TODAY AS WESTERLY BL WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY...AND WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN TO THE SEASONABLE 30S...WITH SOME 40S ON
THE DOWNSLOPING EASTERN FOOTHILLS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS.

AN UPPER WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK FAIRLY DRY...AND SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN
SOME CLOUDS FROM THE WAVE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN SIMILAR WITH THE LARGER
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOWING A
RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF DIGGING
AND CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INITIAL
DIGGING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW
POSSIBLE. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOW TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR THE BLACK HILLS...WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...SIGNIFICANT DIGGING TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ECMWF/GFS DIFFER SOME IN
STRENGTH/TRACK AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...BUT BOTH OFFER UP
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL DISSIPATION ALONG
WESTERN EDGE. FOG ADJACENT TO WEST/SOUTH SIDE OF BLACK HILLS WITH
LIFR VSBY WILL ALSO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. VFR FOR KGCC TERMINAL
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THE IFR CIGS AT KRAP MY
DISSIPATE PRIOR TO 14Z...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE. ANY FOG AT KRAP SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KRAP BY LATE MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KFSD 180553
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1153 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH COOL PROFILE...SNOW RATIOS WILL
BE QUITE HIGH AND COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW FROM
SIOUX CITY EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS...PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED BEFORE
THE CLOUD COVER ARRIVES...THUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST DEPENDENT ON
TIMING. LOOKS LIKE BEST AREA TO SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO IS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE
LAST TO ARRIVE. IN OTHER AREAS WOULD EXPECT A FALL THIS
EVENING...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER CLOUDS ARRIVE. UPPER
WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK
THOUGH...WITH THE BETTER FORCING STAYING TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH. IN
GENERAL...THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS BECOME PRETTY SATURATED AS THE
WAVE CROSSES. ALTHOUGH WILL BE FIGHTING A DRY LAYER. QUESTION
BECOMES WHETHER THIS CAN BE OVERCOME AND RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

FOR NOW WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN OUR SOUTH FROM
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...AS THIS
IS WHERE SATURATION AND LIFT LOOKS GREATEST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT WOULD CAUSE ANY ISSUES.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT SATURATION INTO THE ICE GROWTH REGION
AND RESULTING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. MOST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AT LEAST
INITIALLY WE ARE SATURATED DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FLURRIES...WITH
THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
FEEL LIKE WE WILL NOT BE QUITE SATURATED ENOUGH...AND LIFT WILL BE
WEAK ENOUGH...TO PREVENT ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT TOMORROW.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH MID 20S TO AROUND
30 EXPECTED...BUT SNOW COVER AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD PREVENT US FROM
GETTING ANY WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE MID RANGE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
STRATUS AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS LAYER.
WITH MID LEVEL WARMING ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. WHILE SOME DECEASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THINK THAT THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
BLANKETED FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME. AGAIN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL
SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING...BUT WILL HEDGE TOWARDS
OVERCAST SKIES ELSEWHERE. WITHOUT MUCH LIFT OR FORCING...MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE
CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS MARGINAL FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL SEEN IN THE NAM. THE GFS IS A BIT TOO SHALLOW WITH
THIS LAYER SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S FRIDAY AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. IF DRIZZLE WERE TO
DEVELOP...MUCH OF IT WOULD FALL IN TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP MONITORING IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEPTH PROFILES...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

STILL LOOKING AT SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RAMPS
UP. THE DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH AND TRACK OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...BEGINNING WITH SOME MODEST LIFT ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE TRICKY
AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT LARGE PATTERN DIFFERENCES...WHICH
PLACES SOME CONCERN WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE IN
MENTION OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT WARMER PROFILES COULD SPELL RAIN OR
POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING RAIN WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
FALL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHEST
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STARTING TO FALL IN BETTER ALIGNMENT
WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE GEM HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE FEATURE...BUT
DOES EVENTUALLY DEEPEN THE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE ECMWF SLOW THE UPPER LOW AND DEEPENS IT OVER OUR EASTERN HALF
BEFORE IT SLOWLY WOBBLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS IS A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST.

WILL GO WITH A RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL SWITCH
OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS
EAST. THE ECMWF PAINTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH LESS SEEN ON THE
GFS AND MUCH LESS AT THE TAIL END OF THE GEM. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS SYSTEM IN THE FUTURE AS IT COULD HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES POSSIBLE AND
PLENTY OF WIND TO GO ALONG WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. MAY SEE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW SPREAD IN SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREAD A LITTLE FURHTER NORTH. DONT EXPECT ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT CEILINGS COULD GO IFR WITH THE -SN AND THEN
STRATUS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEITKAMP




000
FXUS63 KFSD 180553
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1153 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH COOL PROFILE...SNOW RATIOS WILL
BE QUITE HIGH AND COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW FROM
SIOUX CITY EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS...PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED BEFORE
THE CLOUD COVER ARRIVES...THUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST DEPENDENT ON
TIMING. LOOKS LIKE BEST AREA TO SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO IS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE
LAST TO ARRIVE. IN OTHER AREAS WOULD EXPECT A FALL THIS
EVENING...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER CLOUDS ARRIVE. UPPER
WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK
THOUGH...WITH THE BETTER FORCING STAYING TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH. IN
GENERAL...THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS BECOME PRETTY SATURATED AS THE
WAVE CROSSES. ALTHOUGH WILL BE FIGHTING A DRY LAYER. QUESTION
BECOMES WHETHER THIS CAN BE OVERCOME AND RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

FOR NOW WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN OUR SOUTH FROM
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...AS THIS
IS WHERE SATURATION AND LIFT LOOKS GREATEST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT WOULD CAUSE ANY ISSUES.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT SATURATION INTO THE ICE GROWTH REGION
AND RESULTING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. MOST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AT LEAST
INITIALLY WE ARE SATURATED DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FLURRIES...WITH
THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
FEEL LIKE WE WILL NOT BE QUITE SATURATED ENOUGH...AND LIFT WILL BE
WEAK ENOUGH...TO PREVENT ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT TOMORROW.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH MID 20S TO AROUND
30 EXPECTED...BUT SNOW COVER AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD PREVENT US FROM
GETTING ANY WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE MID RANGE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
STRATUS AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS LAYER.
WITH MID LEVEL WARMING ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. WHILE SOME DECEASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THINK THAT THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
BLANKETED FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME. AGAIN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL
SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING...BUT WILL HEDGE TOWARDS
OVERCAST SKIES ELSEWHERE. WITHOUT MUCH LIFT OR FORCING...MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE
CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS MARGINAL FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL SEEN IN THE NAM. THE GFS IS A BIT TOO SHALLOW WITH
THIS LAYER SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S FRIDAY AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. IF DRIZZLE WERE TO
DEVELOP...MUCH OF IT WOULD FALL IN TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP MONITORING IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEPTH PROFILES...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

STILL LOOKING AT SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RAMPS
UP. THE DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH AND TRACK OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...BEGINNING WITH SOME MODEST LIFT ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE TRICKY
AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT LARGE PATTERN DIFFERENCES...WHICH
PLACES SOME CONCERN WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE IN
MENTION OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT WARMER PROFILES COULD SPELL RAIN OR
POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING RAIN WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
FALL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHEST
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STARTING TO FALL IN BETTER ALIGNMENT
WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE GEM HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE FEATURE...BUT
DOES EVENTUALLY DEEPEN THE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE ECMWF SLOW THE UPPER LOW AND DEEPENS IT OVER OUR EASTERN HALF
BEFORE IT SLOWLY WOBBLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS IS A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST.

WILL GO WITH A RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL SWITCH
OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS
EAST. THE ECMWF PAINTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH LESS SEEN ON THE
GFS AND MUCH LESS AT THE TAIL END OF THE GEM. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS SYSTEM IN THE FUTURE AS IT COULD HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES POSSIBLE AND
PLENTY OF WIND TO GO ALONG WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. MAY SEE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW SPREAD IN SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREAD A LITTLE FURHTER NORTH. DONT EXPECT ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT CEILINGS COULD GO IFR WITH THE -SN AND THEN
STRATUS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEITKAMP




000
FXUS63 KFSD 180553
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1153 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH COOL PROFILE...SNOW RATIOS WILL
BE QUITE HIGH AND COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW FROM
SIOUX CITY EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS...PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED BEFORE
THE CLOUD COVER ARRIVES...THUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST DEPENDENT ON
TIMING. LOOKS LIKE BEST AREA TO SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO IS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE
LAST TO ARRIVE. IN OTHER AREAS WOULD EXPECT A FALL THIS
EVENING...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER CLOUDS ARRIVE. UPPER
WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK
THOUGH...WITH THE BETTER FORCING STAYING TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH. IN
GENERAL...THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS BECOME PRETTY SATURATED AS THE
WAVE CROSSES. ALTHOUGH WILL BE FIGHTING A DRY LAYER. QUESTION
BECOMES WHETHER THIS CAN BE OVERCOME AND RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

FOR NOW WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN OUR SOUTH FROM
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...AS THIS
IS WHERE SATURATION AND LIFT LOOKS GREATEST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT WOULD CAUSE ANY ISSUES.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT SATURATION INTO THE ICE GROWTH REGION
AND RESULTING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. MOST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AT LEAST
INITIALLY WE ARE SATURATED DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FLURRIES...WITH
THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
FEEL LIKE WE WILL NOT BE QUITE SATURATED ENOUGH...AND LIFT WILL BE
WEAK ENOUGH...TO PREVENT ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT TOMORROW.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH MID 20S TO AROUND
30 EXPECTED...BUT SNOW COVER AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD PREVENT US FROM
GETTING ANY WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE MID RANGE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
STRATUS AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS LAYER.
WITH MID LEVEL WARMING ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. WHILE SOME DECEASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THINK THAT THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
BLANKETED FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME. AGAIN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL
SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING...BUT WILL HEDGE TOWARDS
OVERCAST SKIES ELSEWHERE. WITHOUT MUCH LIFT OR FORCING...MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE
CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS MARGINAL FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL SEEN IN THE NAM. THE GFS IS A BIT TOO SHALLOW WITH
THIS LAYER SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S FRIDAY AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. IF DRIZZLE WERE TO
DEVELOP...MUCH OF IT WOULD FALL IN TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP MONITORING IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEPTH PROFILES...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

STILL LOOKING AT SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RAMPS
UP. THE DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH AND TRACK OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...BEGINNING WITH SOME MODEST LIFT ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE TRICKY
AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT LARGE PATTERN DIFFERENCES...WHICH
PLACES SOME CONCERN WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE IN
MENTION OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT WARMER PROFILES COULD SPELL RAIN OR
POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING RAIN WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
FALL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHEST
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STARTING TO FALL IN BETTER ALIGNMENT
WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE GEM HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE FEATURE...BUT
DOES EVENTUALLY DEEPEN THE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE ECMWF SLOW THE UPPER LOW AND DEEPENS IT OVER OUR EASTERN HALF
BEFORE IT SLOWLY WOBBLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS IS A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST.

WILL GO WITH A RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL SWITCH
OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS
EAST. THE ECMWF PAINTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH LESS SEEN ON THE
GFS AND MUCH LESS AT THE TAIL END OF THE GEM. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS SYSTEM IN THE FUTURE AS IT COULD HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES POSSIBLE AND
PLENTY OF WIND TO GO ALONG WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. MAY SEE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW SPREAD IN SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREAD A LITTLE FURHTER NORTH. DONT EXPECT ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT CEILINGS COULD GO IFR WITH THE -SN AND THEN
STRATUS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEITKAMP




000
FXUS63 KFSD 180553
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1153 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH COOL PROFILE...SNOW RATIOS WILL
BE QUITE HIGH AND COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW FROM
SIOUX CITY EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS...PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED BEFORE
THE CLOUD COVER ARRIVES...THUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST DEPENDENT ON
TIMING. LOOKS LIKE BEST AREA TO SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO IS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE
LAST TO ARRIVE. IN OTHER AREAS WOULD EXPECT A FALL THIS
EVENING...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER CLOUDS ARRIVE. UPPER
WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK
THOUGH...WITH THE BETTER FORCING STAYING TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH. IN
GENERAL...THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS BECOME PRETTY SATURATED AS THE
WAVE CROSSES. ALTHOUGH WILL BE FIGHTING A DRY LAYER. QUESTION
BECOMES WHETHER THIS CAN BE OVERCOME AND RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

FOR NOW WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN OUR SOUTH FROM
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...AS THIS
IS WHERE SATURATION AND LIFT LOOKS GREATEST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT WOULD CAUSE ANY ISSUES.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT SATURATION INTO THE ICE GROWTH REGION
AND RESULTING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. MOST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AT LEAST
INITIALLY WE ARE SATURATED DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FLURRIES...WITH
THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
FEEL LIKE WE WILL NOT BE QUITE SATURATED ENOUGH...AND LIFT WILL BE
WEAK ENOUGH...TO PREVENT ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT TOMORROW.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH MID 20S TO AROUND
30 EXPECTED...BUT SNOW COVER AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD PREVENT US FROM
GETTING ANY WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE MID RANGE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
STRATUS AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS LAYER.
WITH MID LEVEL WARMING ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. WHILE SOME DECEASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THINK THAT THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
BLANKETED FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME. AGAIN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL
SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING...BUT WILL HEDGE TOWARDS
OVERCAST SKIES ELSEWHERE. WITHOUT MUCH LIFT OR FORCING...MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE
CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS MARGINAL FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL SEEN IN THE NAM. THE GFS IS A BIT TOO SHALLOW WITH
THIS LAYER SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S FRIDAY AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. IF DRIZZLE WERE TO
DEVELOP...MUCH OF IT WOULD FALL IN TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP MONITORING IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEPTH PROFILES...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

STILL LOOKING AT SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RAMPS
UP. THE DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH AND TRACK OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...BEGINNING WITH SOME MODEST LIFT ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE TRICKY
AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT LARGE PATTERN DIFFERENCES...WHICH
PLACES SOME CONCERN WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE IN
MENTION OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT WARMER PROFILES COULD SPELL RAIN OR
POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING RAIN WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
FALL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHEST
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STARTING TO FALL IN BETTER ALIGNMENT
WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE GEM HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE FEATURE...BUT
DOES EVENTUALLY DEEPEN THE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE ECMWF SLOW THE UPPER LOW AND DEEPENS IT OVER OUR EASTERN HALF
BEFORE IT SLOWLY WOBBLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS IS A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST.

WILL GO WITH A RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL SWITCH
OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS
EAST. THE ECMWF PAINTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH LESS SEEN ON THE
GFS AND MUCH LESS AT THE TAIL END OF THE GEM. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS SYSTEM IN THE FUTURE AS IT COULD HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES POSSIBLE AND
PLENTY OF WIND TO GO ALONG WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. MAY SEE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW SPREAD IN SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREAD A LITTLE FURHTER NORTH. DONT EXPECT ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT CEILINGS COULD GO IFR WITH THE -SN AND THEN
STRATUS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEITKAMP




000
FXUS63 KABR 180537 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1137 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...TEMPERATURES ARE FOLLOWING THE FORECAST TREND
OF COOLER READINGS ON LITTLE TO NO WIND ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
UNDER A CLEAR SKY...WITH WARMER READINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
WHERE THERE IS SOME WIND AND SKIES ARE OVERCAST. NO NOTE-WORTHY
CHANGES FORTHCOMING TO MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. LOW AND MID CLOUDS ARE
WORKING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA CONTINUES TO WORK INTO
THE REGION. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FLURRIES MENTION ACROSS THE
REGION IN CASE ANY OF THESE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE
WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM END
UP WORKING IN TANDEM /SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM/ TO PRODUCE A FEW
FLAKES OF SNOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

STRATUS...WITH A LITTLE SCATTERING OF THE FRONT EDGE..CONTINUES TO
HANG OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES UNTIL 12Z TO 18Z THURSDAY WHEN
THEY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS. STILL THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS FAR EAST AS ABERDEEN
TONIGHT WHICH MADE FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. KEPT LOWS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER OVER THE EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL HAVE CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY. NOT MUCH FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE ALOFT IS LACKING. WILL ALSO SEE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SO
MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS THEY MAY NOT
REALIZE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE AS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION BECOMES HIGHLY
POSITIVE...TO NEGATIVE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. THE PERIOD
BEGINS WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH DRY WITH ONLY NOTICEABLE WARM
TEMPS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING WINDS. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
RANGE IN THE 30S AND 40S...OR 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY COULD BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE ECMWF IS THE
STRONGEST MODEL AND KEEPS THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE GEM IS LESS AGGRESSIVE AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE PCPN. THE
GFS IS BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. BECAUSE OF THE DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS...WILL MAKE VERY MINOR CHANCES TO THE POP GRIDS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. REGARDLESS WHICH MODEL USED...A
RETURN IS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AFTER OUR BRIEF
WEEKEND WARM WEATHER.


&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KPIR...IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

KMBG...LOWERING MVFR STRATUS HAS PUSHED INTO THE TERMINAL AND IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE IFR FLT CAT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. SUB-VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

KABR/KATY...BKN-OVC VFR STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO THE KABR TERMINAL
AND WILL ARRIVE AT THE KATY TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THEN...THE SUB-VFR STRATUS OUT OVER KPIR/KMBG WILL EXTEND
UP INTO THE KABR/KATY TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY.

ALL FOUR TERMINALS COULD END UP SEEING SOME FLAKES OF SNOW FLYING
/OR PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL VERY FINE FREEZING MIST/ LATER TONIGHT
AND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 180537 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1137 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...TEMPERATURES ARE FOLLOWING THE FORECAST TREND
OF COOLER READINGS ON LITTLE TO NO WIND ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
UNDER A CLEAR SKY...WITH WARMER READINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
WHERE THERE IS SOME WIND AND SKIES ARE OVERCAST. NO NOTE-WORTHY
CHANGES FORTHCOMING TO MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. LOW AND MID CLOUDS ARE
WORKING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA CONTINUES TO WORK INTO
THE REGION. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FLURRIES MENTION ACROSS THE
REGION IN CASE ANY OF THESE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE
WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM END
UP WORKING IN TANDEM /SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM/ TO PRODUCE A FEW
FLAKES OF SNOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

STRATUS...WITH A LITTLE SCATTERING OF THE FRONT EDGE..CONTINUES TO
HANG OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES UNTIL 12Z TO 18Z THURSDAY WHEN
THEY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS. STILL THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS FAR EAST AS ABERDEEN
TONIGHT WHICH MADE FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. KEPT LOWS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER OVER THE EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL HAVE CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY. NOT MUCH FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE ALOFT IS LACKING. WILL ALSO SEE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SO
MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS THEY MAY NOT
REALIZE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE AS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION BECOMES HIGHLY
POSITIVE...TO NEGATIVE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. THE PERIOD
BEGINS WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH DRY WITH ONLY NOTICEABLE WARM
TEMPS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING WINDS. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
RANGE IN THE 30S AND 40S...OR 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY COULD BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE ECMWF IS THE
STRONGEST MODEL AND KEEPS THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE GEM IS LESS AGGRESSIVE AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE PCPN. THE
GFS IS BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. BECAUSE OF THE DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS...WILL MAKE VERY MINOR CHANCES TO THE POP GRIDS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. REGARDLESS WHICH MODEL USED...A
RETURN IS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AFTER OUR BRIEF
WEEKEND WARM WEATHER.


&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KPIR...IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

KMBG...LOWERING MVFR STRATUS HAS PUSHED INTO THE TERMINAL AND IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE IFR FLT CAT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. SUB-VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

KABR/KATY...BKN-OVC VFR STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO THE KABR TERMINAL
AND WILL ARRIVE AT THE KATY TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THEN...THE SUB-VFR STRATUS OUT OVER KPIR/KMBG WILL EXTEND
UP INTO THE KABR/KATY TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY.

ALL FOUR TERMINALS COULD END UP SEEING SOME FLAKES OF SNOW FLYING
/OR PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL VERY FINE FREEZING MIST/ LATER TONIGHT
AND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KUNR 180535
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1035 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN MONTANA WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT. WEAK RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA SHOULD PROGRESS
EASTWARD INTO FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED
SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA. HAVE ALSO
EXPANDED AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA
WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH SOME FOG STILL
IN PLACE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLACK HILLS. SKIES ARE SUNNY
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WEAK
EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES...AND IS THE MAIN
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR FOR THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. TEMPERATURES AT
3PM ARE MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH 30S IN THE BLACK
HILLS.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEAK OUT OF THE WEST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WITH SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
CONTINUING. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUD DECK/FOG AROUND THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER TROF SHIFTS EAST OF THE DAKOTAS AS RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AS LOW PRESSURE TROF STRENGTHENS ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH...AND CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BE PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA FROM
WEST TO EAST. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 30S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO
MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN SIMILAR WITH THE LARGER SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOWING A
RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF
DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS
STILL EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.
A SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY AND ON
MONDAY AS A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SLIPS INTO THE AREA. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT SOME RAIN/SNOW. INCREASING NORTHWEST BL-850MB
FLOW WILL LEAD TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NRN BLKHLS. AS
THE DEEP UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD MID-WEEK...THE SIGNIFICANT WEST
COAST TROF STARTS DIGGING THROUGH PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. ECMWF/GFS DIFFER SOME IN STRENGTH AND TRACK...BUT BOTH
OFFER UP POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW MUCH OF WESTERN SD AND PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN WY IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED INTO WESTERN
SD... INCLUDING KRAP...AND SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROF WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
OUT OF NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
MORNING...PUSHING THE LOW STRATUS DECK EAST THROUGH THE DAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT KRAP UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING ON
THURSDAY.

MEANWHILE...NORTHEAST WY WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR
LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS/AND FOG IN THE VICINITY OF THE BLACK HILLS. WHILE
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WYOMING
PLAINS...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE WIDESPREAD...AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT
OF KGCC TAF FOR THE CURRENT TIME.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 180535
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1035 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN MONTANA WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT. WEAK RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA SHOULD PROGRESS
EASTWARD INTO FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED
SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA. HAVE ALSO
EXPANDED AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA
WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH SOME FOG STILL
IN PLACE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLACK HILLS. SKIES ARE SUNNY
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WEAK
EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES...AND IS THE MAIN
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR FOR THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. TEMPERATURES AT
3PM ARE MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH 30S IN THE BLACK
HILLS.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEAK OUT OF THE WEST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WITH SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
CONTINUING. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUD DECK/FOG AROUND THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER TROF SHIFTS EAST OF THE DAKOTAS AS RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AS LOW PRESSURE TROF STRENGTHENS ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH...AND CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BE PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA FROM
WEST TO EAST. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 30S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO
MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN SIMILAR WITH THE LARGER SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOWING A
RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF
DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS
STILL EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.
A SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY AND ON
MONDAY AS A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SLIPS INTO THE AREA. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT SOME RAIN/SNOW. INCREASING NORTHWEST BL-850MB
FLOW WILL LEAD TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NRN BLKHLS. AS
THE DEEP UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD MID-WEEK...THE SIGNIFICANT WEST
COAST TROF STARTS DIGGING THROUGH PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. ECMWF/GFS DIFFER SOME IN STRENGTH AND TRACK...BUT BOTH
OFFER UP POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW MUCH OF WESTERN SD AND PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN WY IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED INTO WESTERN
SD... INCLUDING KRAP...AND SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROF WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
OUT OF NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
MORNING...PUSHING THE LOW STRATUS DECK EAST THROUGH THE DAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT KRAP UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING ON
THURSDAY.

MEANWHILE...NORTHEAST WY WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR
LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS/AND FOG IN THE VICINITY OF THE BLACK HILLS. WHILE
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WYOMING
PLAINS...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE WIDESPREAD...AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT
OF KGCC TAF FOR THE CURRENT TIME.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities