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000
FXUS63 KFSD 240930
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
330 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WINDY AND CHILLY ON THIS CURRENT OVERNIGHT AS DEEP LOW CONTINUES TO
EVOLVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN IMPACT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WILL BE WIND. PROFILES INDICATE THAT WHILE WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE
NOT PROBABLE...WILL LIKELY GET PERIODS OF SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30
MPH THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY LATTER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AS WEAK LOBE OF UPPER LOW WRAPS BY TO THE EAST. NO INDICATION OF
CHANGES NEEDED TO LOWER END WIND ADVISORY ACROSS EASTERN CWA...AND
EXPECT A GRADUAL DROP IN WINDS BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON...ENDING TIME
SEEMS REASONABLE BY AROUND SUNSET...IF NOT A BIT BEFORE.

HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. SOME REPORTS
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THUS FAR HAVE NOT HAD ANY
REPORTS OF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SW MN AND NORTH FACING WEBCAMS
HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY TENDENCY FOR ICING. WITH FORECAST RAOBS SHOWING
WINDOW CLOSING RAPIDLY FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS TEMPS COOL TO ICE
FAVORING IN THE CLOUD LAYER...WILL ONLY KEEP A PATCHY MENTION IN THE
FAR EASTERN AREAS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. COOLER SURGE CENTERED ON
I 29 HAS BROUGHT A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR.
OVERALL...SYSTEM WILL BE FAR FROM A PROLIFIC PRECIPITATION PRODUCER
ACROSS THE FSD CWA...AND IN FACT AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT MEASURABLE
PRECIP IS QUITE UNLIKELY. DEEP FORCING FOR LIFT IS FULLY LACKING...
AND MOST OF THE MORE USABLE MOISTURE IS LOCKED TO LOWER LEVELS. WILL
HAVE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER FAIRLY UNSTABLE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY... MAINLY EAST
OF THE JAMES VALLEY. HAVE HELD ON TO SOME VERY LOW MEASURABLE POPS
ONLY ACROSS PARTS OF SW MN...AS WILL BE CLOSEST TO SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE WITH LOBE WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW. TEMPS TODAY VERY
LIMITED RECOVERY...BUT LOSS OF MUCH OF THE SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW US
TO SQUEEZE OUT ABOUT EVERY POTENTIAL DEGREE WE CAN...NEAR 20 NORTH
TO THE UPPER 20S MISSOURI VALLEY.

WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES GRADUALLY WORK ON CLEARING THIS EVENING
WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SLIPPING EASTWARD. LATE
TONIGHT...SHALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTIVE LAYER BEGINS TO RETURN AND PUSH
INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. INDICATIONS OF A LITTLE MOISTURE
GATHERING IN SHALLOW THERMAL GRADIENT.  THERE IS A SUBTLE MID LEVEL
WAVE WHICH TRANSLATES RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THIS BOUNDARY
LATE NIGHT...AND PERHAPS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PROMPT SOME ICE
FORMATION. OTHERWISE...AN OUTSIDE CONCERN THAT SHALLOW NATURE TO
MOISTURE /LESS THAN 4500 FT AGL/ WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS FAR EAST AS THE MID JAMES VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
TUE. WITH SHEAR SOMEWHAT LESS THAN WOULD LIKE TO SEE...AND PRE-
EXISTING DRIER LAYER IN ADVANCE...HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE...BUT DID THROW IN SOME PATCHY FOG AND A FEW FLURRIES AT
PRESENT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY HEAD TOWARD NON-DIURNAL THROUGH THE
WESTERN AREAS WITH INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WINDS TURNING TOWARD MORE
SOUTHWEST LATE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

ANY FLURRIES AND FOG WEST WOULD LINGER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THEN
SHOULD DISSIPATE. CLIPPER WITH SEEMINGLY DECENT UPPER SUPPORT BUT
MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A LIGHT SNOW
POTENTIAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST.
QUESTIONABLE COVERAGE DUE TO THE MARGINAL MOISTURE LEADS TO KEEPING
MAX POPS AT A HIGH CHANCE LEVEL...AND AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY LESS THAN
AN INCH. DESPITE THE APPARENT DECENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT...
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DOES NOT SEEM TOO GREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SOME RAIN MIX IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE LOW POPS...THOUGH
ANY MORE THAN MINIMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WOULD GO TO ALL
SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 30S WITH THE WARMER
HIGHS NEAR 40 IN THE SOUTHWEST.

COOLING WILL COME IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MAKING ITSELF MOST
APPARENT IN LITTLE TEMPERATURE WARMING WEDNESDAY FROM MORNING LOWS.
A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER EARLY FAR EAST.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING SHOULD BE JUST PARTIAL WEDNESDAY AS A WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES COULD STILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AND CONTINUED MARGINAL MOISTURE IT WOULD NOT BE
MUCH.

THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MODESTLY COLD WITH VARYING CLOUD
COVER AS BACK DOOR SURFACE HIGH SUPPRESSES WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.

MODELS ARE GOING FOR A QUICK WARMUP FRIDAY THEN A COOLDOWN AGAIN FOR
THE WEEKEND. HAVE GONE WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE AND KEPT
PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH IT
SEEMS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR
SATURDAY WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE STRENGTH OF THE
WARMUP FRIDAY IS IN QUESTION. EXTENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS IT MODEST.
GIVEN THE RAPID NATURE OF THE WARMUP AND THE POTENTIAL LAG AT THE
SURFACE HAVE GONE WITH THE GUIDANCE...BUT IF WE STILL HAVE LACK OF
SNOW COVER IT COULD GET BALMIER.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

STILL LOOKING WINDY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS STILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
WELL...BUT EXPECT DECK TO SCATTER OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET IN MANY
LOCATIONS. SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND POINTS NORTH AND
EAST...BUT AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL TAF
SITES.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040-056.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001>003-013-014-
     022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KFSD 240930
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
330 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WINDY AND CHILLY ON THIS CURRENT OVERNIGHT AS DEEP LOW CONTINUES TO
EVOLVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN IMPACT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WILL BE WIND. PROFILES INDICATE THAT WHILE WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE
NOT PROBABLE...WILL LIKELY GET PERIODS OF SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30
MPH THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY LATTER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AS WEAK LOBE OF UPPER LOW WRAPS BY TO THE EAST. NO INDICATION OF
CHANGES NEEDED TO LOWER END WIND ADVISORY ACROSS EASTERN CWA...AND
EXPECT A GRADUAL DROP IN WINDS BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON...ENDING TIME
SEEMS REASONABLE BY AROUND SUNSET...IF NOT A BIT BEFORE.

HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. SOME REPORTS
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THUS FAR HAVE NOT HAD ANY
REPORTS OF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SW MN AND NORTH FACING WEBCAMS
HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY TENDENCY FOR ICING. WITH FORECAST RAOBS SHOWING
WINDOW CLOSING RAPIDLY FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS TEMPS COOL TO ICE
FAVORING IN THE CLOUD LAYER...WILL ONLY KEEP A PATCHY MENTION IN THE
FAR EASTERN AREAS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. COOLER SURGE CENTERED ON
I 29 HAS BROUGHT A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR.
OVERALL...SYSTEM WILL BE FAR FROM A PROLIFIC PRECIPITATION PRODUCER
ACROSS THE FSD CWA...AND IN FACT AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT MEASURABLE
PRECIP IS QUITE UNLIKELY. DEEP FORCING FOR LIFT IS FULLY LACKING...
AND MOST OF THE MORE USABLE MOISTURE IS LOCKED TO LOWER LEVELS. WILL
HAVE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER FAIRLY UNSTABLE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY... MAINLY EAST
OF THE JAMES VALLEY. HAVE HELD ON TO SOME VERY LOW MEASURABLE POPS
ONLY ACROSS PARTS OF SW MN...AS WILL BE CLOSEST TO SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE WITH LOBE WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW. TEMPS TODAY VERY
LIMITED RECOVERY...BUT LOSS OF MUCH OF THE SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW US
TO SQUEEZE OUT ABOUT EVERY POTENTIAL DEGREE WE CAN...NEAR 20 NORTH
TO THE UPPER 20S MISSOURI VALLEY.

WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES GRADUALLY WORK ON CLEARING THIS EVENING
WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SLIPPING EASTWARD. LATE
TONIGHT...SHALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTIVE LAYER BEGINS TO RETURN AND PUSH
INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. INDICATIONS OF A LITTLE MOISTURE
GATHERING IN SHALLOW THERMAL GRADIENT.  THERE IS A SUBTLE MID LEVEL
WAVE WHICH TRANSLATES RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THIS BOUNDARY
LATE NIGHT...AND PERHAPS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PROMPT SOME ICE
FORMATION. OTHERWISE...AN OUTSIDE CONCERN THAT SHALLOW NATURE TO
MOISTURE /LESS THAN 4500 FT AGL/ WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS FAR EAST AS THE MID JAMES VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
TUE. WITH SHEAR SOMEWHAT LESS THAN WOULD LIKE TO SEE...AND PRE-
EXISTING DRIER LAYER IN ADVANCE...HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE...BUT DID THROW IN SOME PATCHY FOG AND A FEW FLURRIES AT
PRESENT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY HEAD TOWARD NON-DIURNAL THROUGH THE
WESTERN AREAS WITH INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WINDS TURNING TOWARD MORE
SOUTHWEST LATE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

ANY FLURRIES AND FOG WEST WOULD LINGER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THEN
SHOULD DISSIPATE. CLIPPER WITH SEEMINGLY DECENT UPPER SUPPORT BUT
MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A LIGHT SNOW
POTENTIAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST.
QUESTIONABLE COVERAGE DUE TO THE MARGINAL MOISTURE LEADS TO KEEPING
MAX POPS AT A HIGH CHANCE LEVEL...AND AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY LESS THAN
AN INCH. DESPITE THE APPARENT DECENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT...
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DOES NOT SEEM TOO GREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SOME RAIN MIX IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE LOW POPS...THOUGH
ANY MORE THAN MINIMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WOULD GO TO ALL
SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 30S WITH THE WARMER
HIGHS NEAR 40 IN THE SOUTHWEST.

COOLING WILL COME IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MAKING ITSELF MOST
APPARENT IN LITTLE TEMPERATURE WARMING WEDNESDAY FROM MORNING LOWS.
A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER EARLY FAR EAST.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING SHOULD BE JUST PARTIAL WEDNESDAY AS A WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES COULD STILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AND CONTINUED MARGINAL MOISTURE IT WOULD NOT BE
MUCH.

THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MODESTLY COLD WITH VARYING CLOUD
COVER AS BACK DOOR SURFACE HIGH SUPPRESSES WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.

MODELS ARE GOING FOR A QUICK WARMUP FRIDAY THEN A COOLDOWN AGAIN FOR
THE WEEKEND. HAVE GONE WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE AND KEPT
PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH IT
SEEMS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR
SATURDAY WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE STRENGTH OF THE
WARMUP FRIDAY IS IN QUESTION. EXTENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS IT MODEST.
GIVEN THE RAPID NATURE OF THE WARMUP AND THE POTENTIAL LAG AT THE
SURFACE HAVE GONE WITH THE GUIDANCE...BUT IF WE STILL HAVE LACK OF
SNOW COVER IT COULD GET BALMIER.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

STILL LOOKING WINDY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS STILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
WELL...BUT EXPECT DECK TO SCATTER OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET IN MANY
LOCATIONS. SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND POINTS NORTH AND
EAST...BUT AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL TAF
SITES.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040-056.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001>003-013-014-
     022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KABR 240856
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
256 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW IN THE
COTEAU/MINNESOTA...SO DROPPED FREEZING RAIN ADV. WITH ONLY LOW
END SCATTERED COVERAGE...DOUBT ANYTHING MORE THEN A DUSTING
ACCUMULATION. WITH COLD ADVECTION TODAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT AROUND ADV LEVEL IN THE FAR EAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM MUCH.

WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. PROFILES
GO FROM VERY DRY AROUND 800-850MB TO SATURATED BELOW 5KFT...WHICH
IS A LOW CONFIDENCE RED FLAG. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER ARE
COLD ENOUGH TO GET SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT THAT IS ONLY PROGGED TO
LAST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE ICE IS NO LONGER AVAILABLE. WILL LIKELY
JUST SEE A COMBINATION OF FOG/STRATUS IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS AT
ALL...BUT IF WE SEE FOG...THERE MAY BE SOME DEPOSITION/ICY ROADS
TO WATCH FOR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY WITH DECENT
TRACK AND TIMING CONSISTENCY. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH ARE
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO FURTHER
EVALUATE WINDS WITH AROUND AN 8-10MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
STATE AND A 10MB/6HRS PRESSURE BUBBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WHEN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS HIGH WILL GET
PUSHED EAST ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. CURRENT MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THE ECMWF AND GEM HINT AT THE NORTHEAST CWA GETTING CLIPPED
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN DURING THAT TIME. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FRIDAY WHEN SOME WAA
DEVELOPS AND HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.









&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT KMBG/KPIR FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST OF THESE TWO TERMINALS. MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT
KABR/KATY WELL INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THIS SAME CLOUD EDGE
PUSHES THROUGH THESE TWO TERMINALS. WHILE THE CIGS ARE AROUND
TONIGHT...CAN`T RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER.
BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL INTO MONDAY BEFORE
SPEEDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 240856
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
256 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW IN THE
COTEAU/MINNESOTA...SO DROPPED FREEZING RAIN ADV. WITH ONLY LOW
END SCATTERED COVERAGE...DOUBT ANYTHING MORE THEN A DUSTING
ACCUMULATION. WITH COLD ADVECTION TODAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT AROUND ADV LEVEL IN THE FAR EAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM MUCH.

WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. PROFILES
GO FROM VERY DRY AROUND 800-850MB TO SATURATED BELOW 5KFT...WHICH
IS A LOW CONFIDENCE RED FLAG. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER ARE
COLD ENOUGH TO GET SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT THAT IS ONLY PROGGED TO
LAST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE ICE IS NO LONGER AVAILABLE. WILL LIKELY
JUST SEE A COMBINATION OF FOG/STRATUS IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS AT
ALL...BUT IF WE SEE FOG...THERE MAY BE SOME DEPOSITION/ICY ROADS
TO WATCH FOR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY WITH DECENT
TRACK AND TIMING CONSISTENCY. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH ARE
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO FURTHER
EVALUATE WINDS WITH AROUND AN 8-10MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
STATE AND A 10MB/6HRS PRESSURE BUBBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WHEN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS HIGH WILL GET
PUSHED EAST ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. CURRENT MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THE ECMWF AND GEM HINT AT THE NORTHEAST CWA GETTING CLIPPED
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN DURING THAT TIME. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FRIDAY WHEN SOME WAA
DEVELOPS AND HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.









&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT KMBG/KPIR FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST OF THESE TWO TERMINALS. MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT
KABR/KATY WELL INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THIS SAME CLOUD EDGE
PUSHES THROUGH THESE TWO TERMINALS. WHILE THE CIGS ARE AROUND
TONIGHT...CAN`T RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER.
BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL INTO MONDAY BEFORE
SPEEDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 240523 AAD
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1123 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION. WIND
ADVISORY FOR BROWN/SPINK COUNTIES WESTWARD WILL BE TAKEN DOWN BY
MIDNIGHT...WHILE THE WIND ADVISORY FURTHER EAST AND THE FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY CONTINUE.

SECOND UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ADD FREEZING PRECIP PHENOMENON TO WX
GRIDS AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF SODAK AND WC MN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GETTING
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA. AND THEN LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHASE THE FZ RN
THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL. UPDATES ARE OUT.

FIRST UPDATE THIS EVENING TO DROP THE WIND ADV HEADLINE FROM THE
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHICH WAS DUE TO GO AWAY AT 03Z ANYWAY.
IF WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE
WIND ADVISORY FROM THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES AT MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL IN STRONG CAA SEQUENCE. RADAR/OBS
SUGGEST A FEW POCKETS OF FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN ISSUE FACING THE NEAR TERM INVOLVES WINDS(AND ASSOCIATED
HEADLINES) ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES.

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA AS ADVERTISED...WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AROUND THE MO RIVER. LAMP GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH HOPWRF MEMBERS CONT TO SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR ADVRY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED
BUFFALO RIDGE REGION. HAVE EXTENDED COVERAGE OF THE WIND ADVRY TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF MY ERN CWA THROUGH 18Z.

PCPN WISE...REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS DON`T SHOW A LOT FOR THE
AREA...BUT FIGURE THAT THE BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING MUCH OF THE PCPN.
BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...DON`T REALLY THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES ESPECIALLY WITH NO REAL AREAS OF FORCING SEEN
ON THE THETA-E SURFACES OR OMEGA LEVELS. PLUS...WITH WARM TEMPS
MELTING AND/OR CRUSTING SNOWCOVER...DON`T BELIEVE THAT BLSN IS
GOING TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED ALL WORDING.

WITH CAA...TEMPS WILL FREEFALL OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING A TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON CLIPPER LOW TRACK EVEN AS CLOSE AS
TWO DAYS OUT. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE MORE WESTERLY
TRACK...TAKING THE BULK OF SNOW RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA. THE EC/GEM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE BULK
OF SNOW EITHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OR PRETTY MUCH OUT
OF THE CWA ENTIRELY. TAKING MORE OF A MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. THIS RESULTED IN INCREASING
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNT A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...OVER WESTERN SD IT APPEARS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS
UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS AND
INHERITED SUPERBLEND POPS LOOK OK FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT SUPERBLEND GRIDS DO NOT SHOW PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT KMBG/KPIR FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST OF THESE TWO TERMINALS. MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT
KABR/KATY WELL INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THIS SAME CLOUD EDGE
PUSHES THROUGH THESE TWO TERMINALS. WHILE THE CIGS ARE AROUND
TONIGHT...CAN`T RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER.
BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL INTO MONDAY BEFORE
SPEEDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-
     DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR GRANT-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




  [top]

000
FXUS63 KUNR 240520
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1020 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXING OVER THE CWA
ON SCHEDULE...SO WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME. NEXT
SHORTWAVE ENTERING NORTHERN ID SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND EXPECT TREND TO CONTINUE WITH -SN
CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IN WEST WHEN MOISTURE LOWERS AND FORCING
SLOWLY INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PHASING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STOUT SFC
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MIDWEST...AND RAPID CYCLOGENESIS THERE.
BACKSIDE LL CAA AND ISOBARIC ADJUSTMENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE
INTO THE EVENING. ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
POCKET COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING HAS SUPPORTED A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPSLOPE FORCING SUPPORTING MORE
PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION...WHICH
WILL RIDE NEAR THE LL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTLING JUST SW OF THE FA.
THIS WILL CREATE A WESTERN SHIFT IN THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE
TRACK...SUPPORTING PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
MONDAY. COLDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE FA WILL MAINLY
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LL FRONTAL ZONE.

TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE DECENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SOME
LL DRYING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A WANE IN ANY SNOW SHRA
ACTIVITY...ESP THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
MOST OF THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW ADV CRITERIA THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST WINDS AND BEST DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT HAS OCCURRED
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...HENCE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE HWW AND
REPLACE WITH AN ADV. THE NEXT IMPULSE IN ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL
ARRIVE TOWARD DAWN...SUPPORTING A WEAK FGEN RESPONSE. HAVE
CONTINUED AN UPTICK IN POPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCES
FOR SNOW INCREASING ACROSS NE WY.

MONDAY...COMPACT SW TROUGH WILL ADVECT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
FA...SUPPORTING RENEWED FGEN WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW WESTERN HALF.
OVERALL...CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LOW OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND PORTIONS OF NE WY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS
GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL SW OF THE
FA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
UPSLOPE FORCING WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND 20-30 KNOTS OF FLOW
IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND FROUDE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SETUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ACCUMS IN THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS...WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR
LODGE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND CHEYENNE CROSSING. ANY SNOW ACCUMS OUTSIDE
OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...STRONGEST OVER NE WY GIVEN
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET WITH THE PASSING IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDWEEK. SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH...BRINGING A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS
AREA...WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME SETTLING ON A CONSISTENT SOLUTION FROM THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES
PERSIST...WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH
WARMER FOR LATE THIS WEEK...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL STILL ON THE
COLDER SIDE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
NOW AND KEEP IT COLDER THAN LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE. IT STILL LOOKS
MAINLY DRY FROM THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS DO LOOK POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT IF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAPPENS TO BE IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAIL OFF OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD. A BAND OF
MVFR CIGS WILL BE PRESENT FROM KHEI TO KICR AT TIMES TONIGHT.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
LEADING TO AREAS MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHEAST WY/WESTERN SD. -SN IS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PICK UP AGAIN ON THE SD PLAINS LATER MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 240520
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1020 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXING OVER THE CWA
ON SCHEDULE...SO WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME. NEXT
SHORTWAVE ENTERING NORTHERN ID SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND EXPECT TREND TO CONTINUE WITH -SN
CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IN WEST WHEN MOISTURE LOWERS AND FORCING
SLOWLY INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PHASING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STOUT SFC
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MIDWEST...AND RAPID CYCLOGENESIS THERE.
BACKSIDE LL CAA AND ISOBARIC ADJUSTMENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE
INTO THE EVENING. ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
POCKET COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING HAS SUPPORTED A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPSLOPE FORCING SUPPORTING MORE
PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION...WHICH
WILL RIDE NEAR THE LL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTLING JUST SW OF THE FA.
THIS WILL CREATE A WESTERN SHIFT IN THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE
TRACK...SUPPORTING PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
MONDAY. COLDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE FA WILL MAINLY
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LL FRONTAL ZONE.

TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE DECENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SOME
LL DRYING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A WANE IN ANY SNOW SHRA
ACTIVITY...ESP THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
MOST OF THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW ADV CRITERIA THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST WINDS AND BEST DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT HAS OCCURRED
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...HENCE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE HWW AND
REPLACE WITH AN ADV. THE NEXT IMPULSE IN ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL
ARRIVE TOWARD DAWN...SUPPORTING A WEAK FGEN RESPONSE. HAVE
CONTINUED AN UPTICK IN POPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCES
FOR SNOW INCREASING ACROSS NE WY.

MONDAY...COMPACT SW TROUGH WILL ADVECT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
FA...SUPPORTING RENEWED FGEN WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW WESTERN HALF.
OVERALL...CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LOW OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND PORTIONS OF NE WY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS
GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL SW OF THE
FA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
UPSLOPE FORCING WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND 20-30 KNOTS OF FLOW
IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND FROUDE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SETUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ACCUMS IN THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS...WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR
LODGE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND CHEYENNE CROSSING. ANY SNOW ACCUMS OUTSIDE
OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...STRONGEST OVER NE WY GIVEN
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET WITH THE PASSING IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDWEEK. SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH...BRINGING A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS
AREA...WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME SETTLING ON A CONSISTENT SOLUTION FROM THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES
PERSIST...WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH
WARMER FOR LATE THIS WEEK...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL STILL ON THE
COLDER SIDE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
NOW AND KEEP IT COLDER THAN LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE. IT STILL LOOKS
MAINLY DRY FROM THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS DO LOOK POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT IF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAPPENS TO BE IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAIL OFF OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD. A BAND OF
MVFR CIGS WILL BE PRESENT FROM KHEI TO KICR AT TIMES TONIGHT.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
LEADING TO AREAS MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHEAST WY/WESTERN SD. -SN IS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PICK UP AGAIN ON THE SD PLAINS LATER MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 240520
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1020 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXING OVER THE CWA
ON SCHEDULE...SO WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME. NEXT
SHORTWAVE ENTERING NORTHERN ID SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND EXPECT TREND TO CONTINUE WITH -SN
CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IN WEST WHEN MOISTURE LOWERS AND FORCING
SLOWLY INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PHASING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STOUT SFC
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MIDWEST...AND RAPID CYCLOGENESIS THERE.
BACKSIDE LL CAA AND ISOBARIC ADJUSTMENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE
INTO THE EVENING. ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
POCKET COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING HAS SUPPORTED A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPSLOPE FORCING SUPPORTING MORE
PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION...WHICH
WILL RIDE NEAR THE LL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTLING JUST SW OF THE FA.
THIS WILL CREATE A WESTERN SHIFT IN THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE
TRACK...SUPPORTING PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
MONDAY. COLDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE FA WILL MAINLY
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LL FRONTAL ZONE.

TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE DECENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SOME
LL DRYING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A WANE IN ANY SNOW SHRA
ACTIVITY...ESP THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
MOST OF THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW ADV CRITERIA THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST WINDS AND BEST DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT HAS OCCURRED
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...HENCE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE HWW AND
REPLACE WITH AN ADV. THE NEXT IMPULSE IN ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL
ARRIVE TOWARD DAWN...SUPPORTING A WEAK FGEN RESPONSE. HAVE
CONTINUED AN UPTICK IN POPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCES
FOR SNOW INCREASING ACROSS NE WY.

MONDAY...COMPACT SW TROUGH WILL ADVECT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
FA...SUPPORTING RENEWED FGEN WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW WESTERN HALF.
OVERALL...CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LOW OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND PORTIONS OF NE WY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS
GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL SW OF THE
FA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
UPSLOPE FORCING WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND 20-30 KNOTS OF FLOW
IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND FROUDE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SETUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ACCUMS IN THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS...WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR
LODGE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND CHEYENNE CROSSING. ANY SNOW ACCUMS OUTSIDE
OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...STRONGEST OVER NE WY GIVEN
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET WITH THE PASSING IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDWEEK. SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH...BRINGING A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS
AREA...WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME SETTLING ON A CONSISTENT SOLUTION FROM THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES
PERSIST...WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH
WARMER FOR LATE THIS WEEK...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL STILL ON THE
COLDER SIDE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
NOW AND KEEP IT COLDER THAN LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE. IT STILL LOOKS
MAINLY DRY FROM THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS DO LOOK POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT IF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAPPENS TO BE IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAIL OFF OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD. A BAND OF
MVFR CIGS WILL BE PRESENT FROM KHEI TO KICR AT TIMES TONIGHT.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
LEADING TO AREAS MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHEAST WY/WESTERN SD. -SN IS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PICK UP AGAIN ON THE SD PLAINS LATER MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 240520
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1020 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXING OVER THE CWA
ON SCHEDULE...SO WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME. NEXT
SHORTWAVE ENTERING NORTHERN ID SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND EXPECT TREND TO CONTINUE WITH -SN
CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IN WEST WHEN MOISTURE LOWERS AND FORCING
SLOWLY INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PHASING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STOUT SFC
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MIDWEST...AND RAPID CYCLOGENESIS THERE.
BACKSIDE LL CAA AND ISOBARIC ADJUSTMENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE
INTO THE EVENING. ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
POCKET COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING HAS SUPPORTED A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPSLOPE FORCING SUPPORTING MORE
PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION...WHICH
WILL RIDE NEAR THE LL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTLING JUST SW OF THE FA.
THIS WILL CREATE A WESTERN SHIFT IN THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE
TRACK...SUPPORTING PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
MONDAY. COLDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE FA WILL MAINLY
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LL FRONTAL ZONE.

TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE DECENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SOME
LL DRYING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A WANE IN ANY SNOW SHRA
ACTIVITY...ESP THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
MOST OF THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW ADV CRITERIA THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST WINDS AND BEST DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT HAS OCCURRED
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...HENCE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE HWW AND
REPLACE WITH AN ADV. THE NEXT IMPULSE IN ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL
ARRIVE TOWARD DAWN...SUPPORTING A WEAK FGEN RESPONSE. HAVE
CONTINUED AN UPTICK IN POPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCES
FOR SNOW INCREASING ACROSS NE WY.

MONDAY...COMPACT SW TROUGH WILL ADVECT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
FA...SUPPORTING RENEWED FGEN WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW WESTERN HALF.
OVERALL...CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LOW OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND PORTIONS OF NE WY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS
GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL SW OF THE
FA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
UPSLOPE FORCING WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND 20-30 KNOTS OF FLOW
IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND FROUDE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SETUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ACCUMS IN THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS...WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR
LODGE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND CHEYENNE CROSSING. ANY SNOW ACCUMS OUTSIDE
OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...STRONGEST OVER NE WY GIVEN
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET WITH THE PASSING IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDWEEK. SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH...BRINGING A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS
AREA...WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME SETTLING ON A CONSISTENT SOLUTION FROM THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES
PERSIST...WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH
WARMER FOR LATE THIS WEEK...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL STILL ON THE
COLDER SIDE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
NOW AND KEEP IT COLDER THAN LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE. IT STILL LOOKS
MAINLY DRY FROM THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS DO LOOK POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT IF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAPPENS TO BE IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAIL OFF OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD. A BAND OF
MVFR CIGS WILL BE PRESENT FROM KHEI TO KICR AT TIMES TONIGHT.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
LEADING TO AREAS MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHEAST WY/WESTERN SD. -SN IS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PICK UP AGAIN ON THE SD PLAINS LATER MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KFSD 240510
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1110 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.  WITH THE
WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AM
GOING TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA.  WILL ALSO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CREATE ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY...BUT MIXING WILL COUNTERACT THE REDUCED EFFECT OF THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE GOING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...BUT LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
CREATE A LIMITED PERIOD ON WHEN SNOW COULD POTENTIALLY FORM.  THE
DENDRITIC LAYER REMAINS UNSATURATED MOST OF THE TIME...AND THEREFORE
KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW. ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT...TOTALING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST
LOCATIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW...TURNING QUASI-ZONAL LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL
BRING SOME FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES AND A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IN THE MID AND LONG RANGE.

THE FIRST SUCH WAVE MANIFESTS AS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM...LIKELY
DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE GFS REMAINS QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS BY NEARLY 12
HOURS...WHILE THE GEM IS THE FURTHEST NORTH...KEEPING BRUNT OF THE
FORCING AND SNOW NORTH OF THE CWA. TRIED TO FOLLOW SOMETHING CLOSER TO
THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ECMWF IN TIMING AND TRACK. SCATTERED LIGHT
FLURRIES ARRIVING WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS ON TUESDAY
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
PERHAPS INITIALLY A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IN CENTRAL SD TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL QUICKLY CHANGE ENTIRELY TO SNOW AND TRACK THROUGH OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE A QUICK INCH AND A HALF IS POSSIBLE...WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY EVEN WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ON TUESDAY AS SOME DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER...AND WILL NEAR 40 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

COLDER AIR PLUNGES BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO AN UNSEASONABLY COLD THANKSGIVING
DAY. STRATUS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM PLUNGING BELOW ZERO ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS
NORTHEAST SD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND A POSSIBLE SUBTLE IMPULSE
TRACKING IN THIS AREA...SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL CHANCES DEVELOP NEAR THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. THE EXACT EXTENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOWFALL. MODELS INDICATE A GRADUAL CLEARING ON THURSDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN HALF. CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER NEAR THE MISSOURI VALLEY
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
THANKSGIVING HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

MODELS DIVERGE A BIT MORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ONWARD WITH EACH MODEL
SHIFTING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD...SO DID NOT ALTER MUCH FROM
THE ALLBLEND. IT DOES SEEM REASONABLY CERTAIN THE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SOME ON FRIDAY...BUT MODELS ARE AGAIN COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

STILL LOOKING WINDY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS STILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
WELL...BUT EXPECT DECK TO SCATTER OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET IN MANY
LOCATIONS. SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND POINTS NORTH AND
EAST...BUT AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL TAF
SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR SDZ040-056.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-
     090-097-098.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ001>003-013-014-022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 240510
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1110 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.  WITH THE
WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AM
GOING TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA.  WILL ALSO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CREATE ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY...BUT MIXING WILL COUNTERACT THE REDUCED EFFECT OF THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE GOING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...BUT LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
CREATE A LIMITED PERIOD ON WHEN SNOW COULD POTENTIALLY FORM.  THE
DENDRITIC LAYER REMAINS UNSATURATED MOST OF THE TIME...AND THEREFORE
KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW. ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT...TOTALING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST
LOCATIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW...TURNING QUASI-ZONAL LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL
BRING SOME FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES AND A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IN THE MID AND LONG RANGE.

THE FIRST SUCH WAVE MANIFESTS AS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM...LIKELY
DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE GFS REMAINS QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS BY NEARLY 12
HOURS...WHILE THE GEM IS THE FURTHEST NORTH...KEEPING BRUNT OF THE
FORCING AND SNOW NORTH OF THE CWA. TRIED TO FOLLOW SOMETHING CLOSER TO
THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ECMWF IN TIMING AND TRACK. SCATTERED LIGHT
FLURRIES ARRIVING WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS ON TUESDAY
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
PERHAPS INITIALLY A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IN CENTRAL SD TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL QUICKLY CHANGE ENTIRELY TO SNOW AND TRACK THROUGH OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE A QUICK INCH AND A HALF IS POSSIBLE...WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY EVEN WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ON TUESDAY AS SOME DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER...AND WILL NEAR 40 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

COLDER AIR PLUNGES BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO AN UNSEASONABLY COLD THANKSGIVING
DAY. STRATUS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM PLUNGING BELOW ZERO ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS
NORTHEAST SD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND A POSSIBLE SUBTLE IMPULSE
TRACKING IN THIS AREA...SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL CHANCES DEVELOP NEAR THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. THE EXACT EXTENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOWFALL. MODELS INDICATE A GRADUAL CLEARING ON THURSDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN HALF. CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER NEAR THE MISSOURI VALLEY
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
THANKSGIVING HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

MODELS DIVERGE A BIT MORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ONWARD WITH EACH MODEL
SHIFTING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD...SO DID NOT ALTER MUCH FROM
THE ALLBLEND. IT DOES SEEM REASONABLY CERTAIN THE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SOME ON FRIDAY...BUT MODELS ARE AGAIN COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

STILL LOOKING WINDY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS STILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
WELL...BUT EXPECT DECK TO SCATTER OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET IN MANY
LOCATIONS. SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND POINTS NORTH AND
EAST...BUT AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL TAF
SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR SDZ040-056.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-
     090-097-098.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ001>003-013-014-022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KABR 240433 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1033 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SECOND UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ADD FREEZING PRECIP PHENOMENON TO WX
GRIDS AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF SODAK AND WC MN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GETTING
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA. AND THEN LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHASE THE FZ RN
THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL. UPDATES ARE OUT.

FIRST UPDATE THIS EVENING TO DROP THE WIND ADV HEADLINE FROM THE
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHICH WAS DUE TO GO AWAY AT 03Z ANYWAY.
IF WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE
WIND ADVISORY FROM THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES AT MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL IN STRONG CAA SEQUENCE. RADAR/OBS
SUGGEST A FEW POCKETS OF FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN ISSUE FACING THE NEAR TERM INVOLVES WINDS(AND ASSOCIATED
HEADLINES) ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES.

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA AS ADVERTISED...WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AROUND THE MO RIVER. LAMP GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH HOPWRF MEMBERS CONT TO SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR ADVRY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED
BUFFALO RIDGE REGION. HAVE EXTENDED COVERAGE OF THE WIND ADVRY TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF MY ERN CWA THROUGH 18Z.

PCPN WISE...REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS DON`T SHOW A LOT FOR THE
AREA...BUT FIGURE THAT THE BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING MUCH OF THE PCPN.
BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...DON`T REALLY THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES ESPECIALLY WITH NO REAL AREAS OF FORCING SEEN
ON THE THETA-E SURFACES OR OMEGA LEVELS. PLUS...WITH WARM TEMPS
MELTING AND/OR CRUSTING SNOWCOVER...DON`T BELIEVE THAT BLSN IS
GOING TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED ALL WORDING.

WITH CAA...TEMPS WILL FREEFALL OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING A TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON CLIPPER LOW TRACK EVEN AS CLOSE AS
TWO DAYS OUT. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE MORE WESTERLY
TRACK...TAKING THE BULK OF SNOW RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA. THE EC/GEM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE BULK
OF SNOW EITHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OR PRETTY MUCH OUT
OF THE CWA ENTIRELY. TAKING MORE OF A MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. THIS RESULTED IN INCREASING
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNT A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...OVER WESTERN SD IT APPEARS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS
UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS AND
INHERITED SUPERBLEND POPS LOOK OK FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT SUPERBLEND GRIDS DO NOT SHOW PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS FOR QUITE
AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE CIGS ARE AROUND TONIGHT...CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE SPEEDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-
     DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR GRANT-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 240433 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1033 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SECOND UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ADD FREEZING PRECIP PHENOMENON TO WX
GRIDS AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF SODAK AND WC MN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GETTING
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA. AND THEN LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHASE THE FZ RN
THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL. UPDATES ARE OUT.

FIRST UPDATE THIS EVENING TO DROP THE WIND ADV HEADLINE FROM THE
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHICH WAS DUE TO GO AWAY AT 03Z ANYWAY.
IF WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE
WIND ADVISORY FROM THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES AT MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL IN STRONG CAA SEQUENCE. RADAR/OBS
SUGGEST A FEW POCKETS OF FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN ISSUE FACING THE NEAR TERM INVOLVES WINDS(AND ASSOCIATED
HEADLINES) ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES.

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA AS ADVERTISED...WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AROUND THE MO RIVER. LAMP GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH HOPWRF MEMBERS CONT TO SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR ADVRY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED
BUFFALO RIDGE REGION. HAVE EXTENDED COVERAGE OF THE WIND ADVRY TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF MY ERN CWA THROUGH 18Z.

PCPN WISE...REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS DON`T SHOW A LOT FOR THE
AREA...BUT FIGURE THAT THE BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING MUCH OF THE PCPN.
BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...DON`T REALLY THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES ESPECIALLY WITH NO REAL AREAS OF FORCING SEEN
ON THE THETA-E SURFACES OR OMEGA LEVELS. PLUS...WITH WARM TEMPS
MELTING AND/OR CRUSTING SNOWCOVER...DON`T BELIEVE THAT BLSN IS
GOING TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED ALL WORDING.

WITH CAA...TEMPS WILL FREEFALL OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING A TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON CLIPPER LOW TRACK EVEN AS CLOSE AS
TWO DAYS OUT. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE MORE WESTERLY
TRACK...TAKING THE BULK OF SNOW RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA. THE EC/GEM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE BULK
OF SNOW EITHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OR PRETTY MUCH OUT
OF THE CWA ENTIRELY. TAKING MORE OF A MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. THIS RESULTED IN INCREASING
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNT A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...OVER WESTERN SD IT APPEARS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS
UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS AND
INHERITED SUPERBLEND POPS LOOK OK FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT SUPERBLEND GRIDS DO NOT SHOW PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS FOR QUITE
AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE CIGS ARE AROUND TONIGHT...CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE SPEEDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-
     DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR GRANT-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 240433 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1033 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SECOND UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ADD FREEZING PRECIP PHENOMENON TO WX
GRIDS AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF SODAK AND WC MN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GETTING
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA. AND THEN LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHASE THE FZ RN
THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL. UPDATES ARE OUT.

FIRST UPDATE THIS EVENING TO DROP THE WIND ADV HEADLINE FROM THE
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHICH WAS DUE TO GO AWAY AT 03Z ANYWAY.
IF WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE
WIND ADVISORY FROM THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES AT MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL IN STRONG CAA SEQUENCE. RADAR/OBS
SUGGEST A FEW POCKETS OF FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN ISSUE FACING THE NEAR TERM INVOLVES WINDS(AND ASSOCIATED
HEADLINES) ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES.

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA AS ADVERTISED...WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AROUND THE MO RIVER. LAMP GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH HOPWRF MEMBERS CONT TO SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR ADVRY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED
BUFFALO RIDGE REGION. HAVE EXTENDED COVERAGE OF THE WIND ADVRY TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF MY ERN CWA THROUGH 18Z.

PCPN WISE...REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS DON`T SHOW A LOT FOR THE
AREA...BUT FIGURE THAT THE BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING MUCH OF THE PCPN.
BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...DON`T REALLY THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES ESPECIALLY WITH NO REAL AREAS OF FORCING SEEN
ON THE THETA-E SURFACES OR OMEGA LEVELS. PLUS...WITH WARM TEMPS
MELTING AND/OR CRUSTING SNOWCOVER...DON`T BELIEVE THAT BLSN IS
GOING TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED ALL WORDING.

WITH CAA...TEMPS WILL FREEFALL OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING A TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON CLIPPER LOW TRACK EVEN AS CLOSE AS
TWO DAYS OUT. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE MORE WESTERLY
TRACK...TAKING THE BULK OF SNOW RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA. THE EC/GEM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE BULK
OF SNOW EITHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OR PRETTY MUCH OUT
OF THE CWA ENTIRELY. TAKING MORE OF A MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. THIS RESULTED IN INCREASING
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNT A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...OVER WESTERN SD IT APPEARS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS
UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS AND
INHERITED SUPERBLEND POPS LOOK OK FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT SUPERBLEND GRIDS DO NOT SHOW PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS FOR QUITE
AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE CIGS ARE AROUND TONIGHT...CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE SPEEDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-
     DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR GRANT-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 240433 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1033 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SECOND UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ADD FREEZING PRECIP PHENOMENON TO WX
GRIDS AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF SODAK AND WC MN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GETTING
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA. AND THEN LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHASE THE FZ RN
THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL. UPDATES ARE OUT.

FIRST UPDATE THIS EVENING TO DROP THE WIND ADV HEADLINE FROM THE
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHICH WAS DUE TO GO AWAY AT 03Z ANYWAY.
IF WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE
WIND ADVISORY FROM THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES AT MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL IN STRONG CAA SEQUENCE. RADAR/OBS
SUGGEST A FEW POCKETS OF FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN ISSUE FACING THE NEAR TERM INVOLVES WINDS(AND ASSOCIATED
HEADLINES) ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES.

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA AS ADVERTISED...WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AROUND THE MO RIVER. LAMP GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH HOPWRF MEMBERS CONT TO SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR ADVRY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED
BUFFALO RIDGE REGION. HAVE EXTENDED COVERAGE OF THE WIND ADVRY TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF MY ERN CWA THROUGH 18Z.

PCPN WISE...REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS DON`T SHOW A LOT FOR THE
AREA...BUT FIGURE THAT THE BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING MUCH OF THE PCPN.
BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...DON`T REALLY THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES ESPECIALLY WITH NO REAL AREAS OF FORCING SEEN
ON THE THETA-E SURFACES OR OMEGA LEVELS. PLUS...WITH WARM TEMPS
MELTING AND/OR CRUSTING SNOWCOVER...DON`T BELIEVE THAT BLSN IS
GOING TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED ALL WORDING.

WITH CAA...TEMPS WILL FREEFALL OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING A TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON CLIPPER LOW TRACK EVEN AS CLOSE AS
TWO DAYS OUT. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE MORE WESTERLY
TRACK...TAKING THE BULK OF SNOW RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA. THE EC/GEM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE BULK
OF SNOW EITHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OR PRETTY MUCH OUT
OF THE CWA ENTIRELY. TAKING MORE OF A MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. THIS RESULTED IN INCREASING
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNT A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...OVER WESTERN SD IT APPEARS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS
UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS AND
INHERITED SUPERBLEND POPS LOOK OK FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT SUPERBLEND GRIDS DO NOT SHOW PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS FOR QUITE
AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE CIGS ARE AROUND TONIGHT...CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE SPEEDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-
     DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR GRANT-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 240255 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
855 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FIRST UPDATE THIS EVENING TO DROP THE WIND ADV HEADLINE FROM THE
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHICH WAS DUE TO GO AWAY AT 03Z ANYWAY.
IF WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE
WIND ADVISORY FROM THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES AT MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL IN STRONG CAA SEQUENCE. RADAR/OBS
SUGGEST A FEW POCKETS OF FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN ISSUE FACING THE NEAR TERM INVOLVES WINDS(AND ASSOCIATED
HEADLINES) ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES.

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA AS ADVERTISED...WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AROUND THE MO RIVER. LAMP GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH HOPWRF MEMBERS CONT TO SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR ADVRY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED
BUFFALO RIDGE REGION. HAVE EXTENDED COVERAGE OF THE WIND ADVRY TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF MY ERN CWA THROUGH 18Z.

PCPN WISE...REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS DON`T SHOW A LOT FOR THE
AREA...BUT FIGURE THAT THE BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING MUCH OF THE PCPN.
BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...DON`T REALLY THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES ESPECIALLY WITH NO REAL AREAS OF FORCING SEEN
ON THE THETA-E SURFACES OR OMEGA LEVELS. PLUS...WITH WARM TEMPS
MELTING AND/OR CRUSTING SNOWCOVER...DON`T BELIEVE THAT BLSN IS
GOING TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED ALL WORDING.

WITH CAA...TEMPS WILL FREEFALL OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING A TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON CLIPPER LOW TRACK EVEN AS CLOSE AS
TWO DAYS OUT. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE MORE WESTERLY
TRACK...TAKING THE BULK OF SNOW RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA. THE EC/GEM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE BULK
OF SNOW EITHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OR PRETTY MUCH OUT
OF THE CWA ENTIRELY. TAKING MORE OF A MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. THIS RESULTED IN INCREASING
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNT A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...OVER WESTERN SD IT APPEARS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS
UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS AND
INHERITED SUPERBLEND POPS LOOK OK FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT SUPERBLEND GRIDS DO NOT SHOW PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS FOR QUITE
AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE CIGS ARE AROUND TONIGHT...CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE SPEEDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-
     DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KUNR 240248
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
748 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXING OVER THE CWA
ON SCHEDULE...SO WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME. NEXT
SHORTWAVE ENTERING NORTHERN ID SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND EXPECT TREND TO CONTINUE WITH -SN
CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IN WEST WHEN MOISTURE LOWERS AND FORCING
SLOWLY INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PHASING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STOUT SFC
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MIDWEST...AND RAPID CYCLOGENESIS THERE.
BACKSIDE LL CAA AND ISOBARIC ADJUSTMENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE
INTO THE EVENING. ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
POCKET COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING HAS SUPPORTED A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPSLOPE FORCING SUPPORTING MORE
PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION...WHICH
WILL RIDE NEAR THE LL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTLING JUST SW OF THE FA.
THIS WILL CREATE A WESTERN SHIFT IN THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE
TRACK...SUPPORTING PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
MONDAY. COLDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE FA WILL MAINLY
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LL FRONTAL ZONE.

TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE DECENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SOME
LL DRYING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A WANE IN ANY SNOW SHRA
ACTIVITY...ESP THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
MOST OF THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW ADV CRITERIA THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST WINDS AND BEST DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT HAS OCCURRED
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...HENCE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE HWW AND
REPLACE WITH AN ADV. THE NEXT IMPULSE IN ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL
ARRIVE TOWARD DAWN...SUPPORTING A WEAK FGEN RESPONSE. HAVE
CONTINUED AN UPTICK IN POPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCES
FOR SNOW INCREASING ACROSS NE WY.

MONDAY...COMPACT SW TROUGH WILL ADVECT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
FA...SUPPORTING RENEWED FGEN WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW WESTERN HALF.
OVERALL...CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LOW OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND PORTIONS OF NE WY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS
GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL SW OF THE
FA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
UPSLOPE FORCING WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND 20-30 KNOTS OF FLOW
IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND FROUDE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SETUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ACCUMS IN THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS...WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR
LODGE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND CHEYENNE CROSSING. ANY SNOW ACCUMS OUTSIDE
OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...STRONGEST OVER NE WY GIVEN
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET WITH THE PASSING IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDWEEK. SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH...BRINGING A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS
AREA...WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME SETTLING ON A CONSISTENT SOLUTION FROM THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES
PERSIST...WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH
WARMER FOR LATE THIS WEEK...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL STILL ON THE
COLDER SIDE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
NOW AND KEEP IT COLDER THAN LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE. IT STILL LOOKS
MAINLY DRY FROM THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS DO LOOK POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT IF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAPPENS TO BE IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHSN/MVFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST
SD...THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHSN OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS STARTING VERY LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST WY INTO
WESTERN SD WHERE -SN DEVELOPS LASTING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 240248
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
748 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXING OVER THE CWA
ON SCHEDULE...SO WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME. NEXT
SHORTWAVE ENTERING NORTHERN ID SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND EXPECT TREND TO CONTINUE WITH -SN
CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IN WEST WHEN MOISTURE LOWERS AND FORCING
SLOWLY INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PHASING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STOUT SFC
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MIDWEST...AND RAPID CYCLOGENESIS THERE.
BACKSIDE LL CAA AND ISOBARIC ADJUSTMENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE
INTO THE EVENING. ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
POCKET COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING HAS SUPPORTED A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPSLOPE FORCING SUPPORTING MORE
PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION...WHICH
WILL RIDE NEAR THE LL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTLING JUST SW OF THE FA.
THIS WILL CREATE A WESTERN SHIFT IN THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE
TRACK...SUPPORTING PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
MONDAY. COLDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE FA WILL MAINLY
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LL FRONTAL ZONE.

TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE DECENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SOME
LL DRYING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A WANE IN ANY SNOW SHRA
ACTIVITY...ESP THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
MOST OF THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW ADV CRITERIA THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST WINDS AND BEST DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT HAS OCCURRED
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...HENCE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE HWW AND
REPLACE WITH AN ADV. THE NEXT IMPULSE IN ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL
ARRIVE TOWARD DAWN...SUPPORTING A WEAK FGEN RESPONSE. HAVE
CONTINUED AN UPTICK IN POPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCES
FOR SNOW INCREASING ACROSS NE WY.

MONDAY...COMPACT SW TROUGH WILL ADVECT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
FA...SUPPORTING RENEWED FGEN WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW WESTERN HALF.
OVERALL...CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LOW OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND PORTIONS OF NE WY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS
GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL SW OF THE
FA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
UPSLOPE FORCING WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND 20-30 KNOTS OF FLOW
IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND FROUDE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SETUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ACCUMS IN THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS...WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR
LODGE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND CHEYENNE CROSSING. ANY SNOW ACCUMS OUTSIDE
OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...STRONGEST OVER NE WY GIVEN
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET WITH THE PASSING IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDWEEK. SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH...BRINGING A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS
AREA...WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME SETTLING ON A CONSISTENT SOLUTION FROM THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES
PERSIST...WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH
WARMER FOR LATE THIS WEEK...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL STILL ON THE
COLDER SIDE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
NOW AND KEEP IT COLDER THAN LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE. IT STILL LOOKS
MAINLY DRY FROM THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS DO LOOK POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT IF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAPPENS TO BE IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHSN/MVFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST
SD...THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHSN OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS STARTING VERY LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST WY INTO
WESTERN SD WHERE -SN DEVELOPS LASTING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KFSD 240211
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
811 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.  WITH THE
WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AM
GOING TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA.  WILL ALSO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CREATE ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY...BUT MIXING WILL COUNTERACT THE REDUCED EFFECT OF THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE GOING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...BUT LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
CREATE A LIMITED PERIOD ON WHEN SNOW COULD POTENTIALLY FORM.  THE
DENDRITIC LAYER REMAINS UNSATURATED MOST OF THE TIME...AND THEREFORE
KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW. ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT...TOTALING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST
LOCATIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW...TURNING QUASI-ZONAL LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL
BRING SOME FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES AND A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IN THE MID AND LONG RANGE.

THE FIRST SUCH WAVE MANIFESTS AS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM...LIKELY
DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE GFS REMAINS QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS BY NEARLY 12
HOURS...WHILE THE GEM IS THE FURTHEST NORTH...KEEPING BRUNT OF THE
FORCING AND SNOW NORTH OF THE CWA. TRIED TO FOLLOW SOMETHING CLOSER TO
THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ECMWF IN TIMING AND TRACK. SCATTERED LIGHT
FLURRIES ARRIVING WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS ON TUESDAY
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
PERHAPS INITIALLY A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IN CENTRAL SD TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL QUICKLY CHANGE ENTIRELY TO SNOW AND TRACK THROUGH OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE A QUICK INCH AND A HALF IS POSSIBLE...WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY EVEN WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ON TUESDAY AS SOME DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER...AND WILL NEAR 40 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

COLDER AIR PLUNGES BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO AN UNSEASONABLY COLD THANKSGIVING
DAY. STRATUS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM PLUNGING BELOW ZERO ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS
NORTHEAST SD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND A POSSIBLE SUBTLE IMPULSE
TRACKING IN THIS AREA...SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL CHANCES DEVELOP NEAR THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. THE EXACT EXTENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOWFALL. MODELS INDICATE A GRADUAL CLEARING ON THURSDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN HALF. CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER NEAR THE MISSOURI VALLEY
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
THANKSGIVING HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

MODELS DIVERGE A BIT MORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ONWARD WITH EACH MODEL
SHIFTING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD...SO DID NOT ALTER MUCH FROM
THE ALLBLEND. IT DOES SEEM REASONABLY CERTAIN THE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SOME ON FRIDAY...BUT MODELS ARE AGAIN COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 811 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH AT TIMES FROM THE NORTHWEST ALSO EXPECTED.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     SDZ040-056.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-050-052-053-
     057>059-063-064.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     IAZ001>003-013-014-022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KFSD 240211
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
811 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.  WITH THE
WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AM
GOING TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA.  WILL ALSO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CREATE ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY...BUT MIXING WILL COUNTERACT THE REDUCED EFFECT OF THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE GOING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...BUT LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
CREATE A LIMITED PERIOD ON WHEN SNOW COULD POTENTIALLY FORM.  THE
DENDRITIC LAYER REMAINS UNSATURATED MOST OF THE TIME...AND THEREFORE
KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW. ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT...TOTALING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST
LOCATIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW...TURNING QUASI-ZONAL LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL
BRING SOME FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES AND A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IN THE MID AND LONG RANGE.

THE FIRST SUCH WAVE MANIFESTS AS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM...LIKELY
DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE GFS REMAINS QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS BY NEARLY 12
HOURS...WHILE THE GEM IS THE FURTHEST NORTH...KEEPING BRUNT OF THE
FORCING AND SNOW NORTH OF THE CWA. TRIED TO FOLLOW SOMETHING CLOSER TO
THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ECMWF IN TIMING AND TRACK. SCATTERED LIGHT
FLURRIES ARRIVING WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS ON TUESDAY
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
PERHAPS INITIALLY A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IN CENTRAL SD TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL QUICKLY CHANGE ENTIRELY TO SNOW AND TRACK THROUGH OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE A QUICK INCH AND A HALF IS POSSIBLE...WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY EVEN WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ON TUESDAY AS SOME DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER...AND WILL NEAR 40 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

COLDER AIR PLUNGES BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO AN UNSEASONABLY COLD THANKSGIVING
DAY. STRATUS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM PLUNGING BELOW ZERO ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS
NORTHEAST SD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND A POSSIBLE SUBTLE IMPULSE
TRACKING IN THIS AREA...SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL CHANCES DEVELOP NEAR THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. THE EXACT EXTENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOWFALL. MODELS INDICATE A GRADUAL CLEARING ON THURSDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN HALF. CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER NEAR THE MISSOURI VALLEY
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
THANKSGIVING HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

MODELS DIVERGE A BIT MORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ONWARD WITH EACH MODEL
SHIFTING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD...SO DID NOT ALTER MUCH FROM
THE ALLBLEND. IT DOES SEEM REASONABLY CERTAIN THE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SOME ON FRIDAY...BUT MODELS ARE AGAIN COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 811 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH AT TIMES FROM THE NORTHWEST ALSO EXPECTED.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     SDZ040-056.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-050-052-053-
     057>059-063-064.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     IAZ001>003-013-014-022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KABR 232349 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
549 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN ISSUE FACING THE NEAR TERM INVOLVES WINDS (AND ASSOCIATED
HEADLINES) ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES.

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA AS ADVERTISED...WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AROUND THE MO RIVER. LAMP GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH HOPWRF MEMBERS CONT TO SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR ADVRY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED
BUFFALO RIDGE REGION. HAVE EXTENDED COVERAGE OF THE WIND ADVRY TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF MY ERN CWA THROUGH 18Z.

PCPN WISE...REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS DON`T SHOW A LOT FOR THE
AREA...BUT FIGURE THAT THE BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING MUCH OF THE PCPN.
BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...DON`T REALLY THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES ESPECIALLY WITH NO REAL AREAS OF FORCING SEEN
ON THE THETA-E SURFACES OR OMEGA LEVELS. PLUS...WITH WARM TEMPS
MELTING AND/OR CRUSTING SNOWCOVER...DON`T BELIEVE THAT BLSN IS
GOING TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED ALL WORDING.

WITH CAA...TEMPS WILL FREEFALL OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING A TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON CLIPPER LOW TRACK EVEN AS CLOSE AS
TWO DAYS OUT. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE MORE WESTERLY
TRACK...TAKING THE BULK OF SNOW RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA. THE EC/GEM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE BULK
OF SNOW EITHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OR PRETTY MUCH OUT
OF THE CWA ENTIRELY. TAKING MORE OF A MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. THIS RESULTED IN INCREASING
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNT A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...OVER WESTERN SD IT APPEARS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS
UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS AND
INHERITED SUPERBLEND POPS LOOK OK FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT SUPERBLEND GRIDS DO NOT SHOW PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS FOR QUITE
AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE CIGS ARE AROUND TONIGHT...CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE SPEEDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-
     DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 232349 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
549 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN ISSUE FACING THE NEAR TERM INVOLVES WINDS (AND ASSOCIATED
HEADLINES) ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES.

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA AS ADVERTISED...WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AROUND THE MO RIVER. LAMP GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH HOPWRF MEMBERS CONT TO SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR ADVRY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED
BUFFALO RIDGE REGION. HAVE EXTENDED COVERAGE OF THE WIND ADVRY TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF MY ERN CWA THROUGH 18Z.

PCPN WISE...REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS DON`T SHOW A LOT FOR THE
AREA...BUT FIGURE THAT THE BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING MUCH OF THE PCPN.
BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...DON`T REALLY THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES ESPECIALLY WITH NO REAL AREAS OF FORCING SEEN
ON THE THETA-E SURFACES OR OMEGA LEVELS. PLUS...WITH WARM TEMPS
MELTING AND/OR CRUSTING SNOWCOVER...DON`T BELIEVE THAT BLSN IS
GOING TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED ALL WORDING.

WITH CAA...TEMPS WILL FREEFALL OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING A TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON CLIPPER LOW TRACK EVEN AS CLOSE AS
TWO DAYS OUT. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE MORE WESTERLY
TRACK...TAKING THE BULK OF SNOW RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA. THE EC/GEM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE BULK
OF SNOW EITHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OR PRETTY MUCH OUT
OF THE CWA ENTIRELY. TAKING MORE OF A MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. THIS RESULTED IN INCREASING
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNT A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...OVER WESTERN SD IT APPEARS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS
UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS AND
INHERITED SUPERBLEND POPS LOOK OK FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT SUPERBLEND GRIDS DO NOT SHOW PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS FOR QUITE
AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE CIGS ARE AROUND TONIGHT...CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE SPEEDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-
     DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 232340
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
440 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PHASING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STOUT SFC
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MIDWEST...AND RAPID CYCLOGENESIS THERE.
BACKSIDE LL CAA AND ISOBARIC ADJUSTMENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE
INTO THE EVENING. ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
POCKET COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING HAS SUPPORTED A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPSLOPE FORCING SUPPORTING MORE
PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION...WHICH
WILL RIDE NEAR THE LL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTLING JUST SW OF THE FA.
THIS WILL CREATE A WESTERN SHIFT IN THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE
TRACK...SUPPORTING PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
MONDAY. COLDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE FA WILL MAINLY
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LL FRONTAL ZONE.

TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE DECENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SOME
LL DRYING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A WANE IN ANY SNOW SHRA
ACTIVITY...ESP THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
MOST OF THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW ADV CRITERIA THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST WINDS AND BEST DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT HAS OCCURRED
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...HENCE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE HWW AND
REPLACE WITH AN ADV. THE NEXT IMPULSE IN ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL
ARRIVE TOWARD DAWN...SUPPORTING A WEAK FGEN RESPONSE. HAVE
CONTINUED AN UPTICK IN POPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCES
FOR SNOW INCREASING ACROSS NE WY.

MONDAY...COMPACT SW TROUGH WILL ADVECT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
FA...SUPPORTING RENEWED FGEN WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW WESTERN HALF.
OVERALL...CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LOW OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND PORTIONS OF NE WY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS
GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL SW OF THE
FA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
UPSLOPE FORCING WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND 20-30 KNOTS OF FLOW
IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND FROUDE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SETUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ACCUMS IN THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS...WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR
LODGE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND CHEYENNE CROSSING. ANY SNOW ACCUMS OUTSIDE
OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...STRONGEST OVER NE WY GIVEN
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET WITH THE PASSING IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDWEEK. SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH...BRINGING A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS
AREA...WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME SETTLING ON A CONSISTENT SOLUTION FROM THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES
PERSIST...WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH
WARMER FOR LATE THIS WEEK...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL STILL ON THE
COLDER SIDE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
NOW AND KEEP IT COLDER THAN LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE. IT STILL LOOKS
MAINLY DRY FROM THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS DO LOOK POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT IF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAPPENS TO BE IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHSN/MVFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST
SD...THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHSN OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS STARTING VERY LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST WY INTO
WESTERN SD WHERE -SN DEVELOPS LASTING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025>027-031-032-041-043-044-046-047-049-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HELGESON






000
FXUS63 KFSD 232156
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.  WITH THE
WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AM
GOING TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA.  WILL ALSO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CREATE ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY...BUT MIXING WILL COUNTERACT THE REDUCED EFFECT OF THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE GOING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...BUT LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
CREATE A LIMITED PERIOD ON WHEN SNOW COULD POTENTIALLY FORM.  THE
DENDRITIC LAYER REMAINS UNSATURATED MOST OF THE TIME...AND THEREFORE
KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW. ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT...TOTALING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST
LOCATIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW...TURNING QUASI-ZONAL LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL
BRING SOME FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES AND A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IN THE MID AND LONG RANGE.

THE FIRST SUCH WAVE MANIFESTS AS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM...LIKELY
DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE GFS REMAINS QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS BY NEARLY 12
HOURS...WHILE THE GEM IS THE FURTHEST NORTH...KEEPING BRUNT OF THE
FORCING AND SNOW NORTH OF THE CWA. TRIED TO FOLLOW SOMETHING CLOSER TO
THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ECMWF IN TIMING AND TRACK. SCATTERED LIGHT
FLURRIES ARRIVING WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS ON TUESDAY
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
PERHAPS INITIALLY A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IN CENTRAL SD TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL QUICKLY CHANGE ENTIRELY TO SNOW AND TRACK THROUGH OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE A QUICK INCH AND A HALF IS POSSIBLE...WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY EVEN WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ON TUESDAY AS SOME DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER...AND WILL NEAR 40 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

COLDER AIR PLUNGES BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO AN UNSEASONABLY COLD THANKSGIVING
DAY. STRATUS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM PLUNGING BELOW ZERO ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS
NORTHEAST SD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND A POSSIBLE SUBTLE IMPULSE
TRACKING IN THIS AREA...SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL CHANCES DEVELOP NEAR THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. THE EXACT EXTENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOWFALL. MODELS INDICATE A GRADUAL CLEARING ON THURSDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN HALF. CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER NEAR THE MISSOURI VALLEY
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
THANKSGIVING HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

MODELS DIVERGE A BIT MORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ONWARD WITH EACH MODEL
SHIFTING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD...SO DID NOT ALTER MUCH FROM
THE ALLBLEND. IT DOES SEEM REASONABLY CERTAIN THE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SOME ON FRIDAY...BUT MODELS ARE AGAIN COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE THIS
WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLOUD CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. COULD
HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT
SUSPECT SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     SDZ040-056.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-050-052-053-
     057>059-063-064.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     IAZ001>003-013-014-022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 232156
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.  WITH THE
WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AM
GOING TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA.  WILL ALSO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CREATE ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY...BUT MIXING WILL COUNTERACT THE REDUCED EFFECT OF THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE GOING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...BUT LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
CREATE A LIMITED PERIOD ON WHEN SNOW COULD POTENTIALLY FORM.  THE
DENDRITIC LAYER REMAINS UNSATURATED MOST OF THE TIME...AND THEREFORE
KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW. ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT...TOTALING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST
LOCATIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW...TURNING QUASI-ZONAL LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL
BRING SOME FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES AND A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IN THE MID AND LONG RANGE.

THE FIRST SUCH WAVE MANIFESTS AS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM...LIKELY
DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE GFS REMAINS QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS BY NEARLY 12
HOURS...WHILE THE GEM IS THE FURTHEST NORTH...KEEPING BRUNT OF THE
FORCING AND SNOW NORTH OF THE CWA. TRIED TO FOLLOW SOMETHING CLOSER TO
THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ECMWF IN TIMING AND TRACK. SCATTERED LIGHT
FLURRIES ARRIVING WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS ON TUESDAY
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
PERHAPS INITIALLY A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IN CENTRAL SD TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL QUICKLY CHANGE ENTIRELY TO SNOW AND TRACK THROUGH OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE A QUICK INCH AND A HALF IS POSSIBLE...WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY EVEN WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ON TUESDAY AS SOME DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER...AND WILL NEAR 40 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

COLDER AIR PLUNGES BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO AN UNSEASONABLY COLD THANKSGIVING
DAY. STRATUS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM PLUNGING BELOW ZERO ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS
NORTHEAST SD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND A POSSIBLE SUBTLE IMPULSE
TRACKING IN THIS AREA...SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL CHANCES DEVELOP NEAR THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. THE EXACT EXTENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOWFALL. MODELS INDICATE A GRADUAL CLEARING ON THURSDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN HALF. CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER NEAR THE MISSOURI VALLEY
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
THANKSGIVING HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

MODELS DIVERGE A BIT MORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ONWARD WITH EACH MODEL
SHIFTING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD...SO DID NOT ALTER MUCH FROM
THE ALLBLEND. IT DOES SEEM REASONABLY CERTAIN THE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SOME ON FRIDAY...BUT MODELS ARE AGAIN COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE THIS
WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLOUD CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. COULD
HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT
SUSPECT SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     SDZ040-056.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-050-052-053-
     057>059-063-064.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     IAZ001>003-013-014-022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 232156
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.  WITH THE
WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AM
GOING TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA.  WILL ALSO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CREATE ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY...BUT MIXING WILL COUNTERACT THE REDUCED EFFECT OF THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE GOING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...BUT LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
CREATE A LIMITED PERIOD ON WHEN SNOW COULD POTENTIALLY FORM.  THE
DENDRITIC LAYER REMAINS UNSATURATED MOST OF THE TIME...AND THEREFORE
KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW. ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT...TOTALING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST
LOCATIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW...TURNING QUASI-ZONAL LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL
BRING SOME FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES AND A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IN THE MID AND LONG RANGE.

THE FIRST SUCH WAVE MANIFESTS AS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM...LIKELY
DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE GFS REMAINS QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS BY NEARLY 12
HOURS...WHILE THE GEM IS THE FURTHEST NORTH...KEEPING BRUNT OF THE
FORCING AND SNOW NORTH OF THE CWA. TRIED TO FOLLOW SOMETHING CLOSER TO
THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ECMWF IN TIMING AND TRACK. SCATTERED LIGHT
FLURRIES ARRIVING WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS ON TUESDAY
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
PERHAPS INITIALLY A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IN CENTRAL SD TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL QUICKLY CHANGE ENTIRELY TO SNOW AND TRACK THROUGH OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE A QUICK INCH AND A HALF IS POSSIBLE...WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY EVEN WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ON TUESDAY AS SOME DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER...AND WILL NEAR 40 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

COLDER AIR PLUNGES BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO AN UNSEASONABLY COLD THANKSGIVING
DAY. STRATUS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM PLUNGING BELOW ZERO ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS
NORTHEAST SD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND A POSSIBLE SUBTLE IMPULSE
TRACKING IN THIS AREA...SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL CHANCES DEVELOP NEAR THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. THE EXACT EXTENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOWFALL. MODELS INDICATE A GRADUAL CLEARING ON THURSDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN HALF. CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER NEAR THE MISSOURI VALLEY
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
THANKSGIVING HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

MODELS DIVERGE A BIT MORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ONWARD WITH EACH MODEL
SHIFTING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD...SO DID NOT ALTER MUCH FROM
THE ALLBLEND. IT DOES SEEM REASONABLY CERTAIN THE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SOME ON FRIDAY...BUT MODELS ARE AGAIN COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE THIS
WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLOUD CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. COULD
HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT
SUSPECT SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     SDZ040-056.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-050-052-053-
     057>059-063-064.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     IAZ001>003-013-014-022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 232156
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.  WITH THE
WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AM
GOING TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA.  WILL ALSO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CREATE ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY...BUT MIXING WILL COUNTERACT THE REDUCED EFFECT OF THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE GOING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...BUT LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
CREATE A LIMITED PERIOD ON WHEN SNOW COULD POTENTIALLY FORM.  THE
DENDRITIC LAYER REMAINS UNSATURATED MOST OF THE TIME...AND THEREFORE
KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW. ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT...TOTALING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST
LOCATIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW...TURNING QUASI-ZONAL LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL
BRING SOME FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES AND A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IN THE MID AND LONG RANGE.

THE FIRST SUCH WAVE MANIFESTS AS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM...LIKELY
DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE GFS REMAINS QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS BY NEARLY 12
HOURS...WHILE THE GEM IS THE FURTHEST NORTH...KEEPING BRUNT OF THE
FORCING AND SNOW NORTH OF THE CWA. TRIED TO FOLLOW SOMETHING CLOSER TO
THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ECMWF IN TIMING AND TRACK. SCATTERED LIGHT
FLURRIES ARRIVING WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS ON TUESDAY
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
PERHAPS INITIALLY A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IN CENTRAL SD TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL QUICKLY CHANGE ENTIRELY TO SNOW AND TRACK THROUGH OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE A QUICK INCH AND A HALF IS POSSIBLE...WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY EVEN WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ON TUESDAY AS SOME DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER...AND WILL NEAR 40 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

COLDER AIR PLUNGES BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO AN UNSEASONABLY COLD THANKSGIVING
DAY. STRATUS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM PLUNGING BELOW ZERO ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS
NORTHEAST SD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND A POSSIBLE SUBTLE IMPULSE
TRACKING IN THIS AREA...SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL CHANCES DEVELOP NEAR THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. THE EXACT EXTENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOWFALL. MODELS INDICATE A GRADUAL CLEARING ON THURSDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN HALF. CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER NEAR THE MISSOURI VALLEY
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
THANKSGIVING HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

MODELS DIVERGE A BIT MORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ONWARD WITH EACH MODEL
SHIFTING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD...SO DID NOT ALTER MUCH FROM
THE ALLBLEND. IT DOES SEEM REASONABLY CERTAIN THE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SOME ON FRIDAY...BUT MODELS ARE AGAIN COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE THIS
WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLOUD CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. COULD
HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT
SUSPECT SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     SDZ040-056.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-050-052-053-
     057>059-063-064.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     IAZ001>003-013-014-022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KUNR 232142
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
242 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PHASING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STOUT SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MIDWEST...AND
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS THERE. BACKSIDE LL CAA AND ISOBARIC ADJUSTMENT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA...WHICH
WILL BE THE CASE INTO THE EVENING. ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING HAS SUPPORTED A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPSLOPE FORCING SUPPORTING
MORE PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL
RIDE NEAR THE LL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTLING JUST SW OF THE FA. THIS
WILL CREATE A WESTERN SHIFT IN THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE
TRACK...SUPPORTING PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
MONDAY. COLDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE FA WILL MAINLY REMAIN
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LL FRONTAL ZONE.

TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE DECENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SOME
LL DRYING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A WANE IN ANY SNOW SHRA
ACTIVITY...ESP THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
MOST OF THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW ADV CRITERIA THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST WINDS AND BEST DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT HAS OCCURRED
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...HENCE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE HWW AND
REPLACE WITH AN ADV. THE NEXT IMPULSE IN ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL
ARRIVE TOWARD DAWN...SUPPORTING A WEAK FGEN RESPONSE. HAVE
CONTINUED AN UPTICK IN POPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCES
FOR SNOW INCREASING ACROSS NE WY.

MONDAY...COMPACT SW TROUGH WILL ADVECT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
FA...SUPPORTING RENEWED FGEN WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW WESTERN HALF.
OVERALL...CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LOW OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND PORTIONS OF NE WY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS
GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL SW OF THE
FA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
UPSLOPE FORCING WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND 20-30 KNOTS OF FLOW
IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND FROUDE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SETUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ACCUMS IN THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS...WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR
LODGE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND CHEYENNE CROSSING. ANY SNOW ACCUMS OUTSIDE
OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...STRONGEST OVER NE WY GIVEN
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET WITH THE PASSING IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDWEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE
THROUGH...BRINGING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA...WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME SETTLING ON A CONSISTENT SOLUTION FROM THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES
PERSIST...WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH
WARMER FOR LATE THIS WEEK...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL STILL ON THE
COLDER SIDE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
NOW AND KEEP IT COLDER THAN LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE. IT STILL LOOKS
MAINLY DRY FROM THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS DO LOOK POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT IF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAPPENS TO BE IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER 00Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHSN/MVFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST SD...THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED
SHSN OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025>027-031-032-041-043-044-046-047-049-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26






000
FXUS63 KUNR 232128
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PHASING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STOUT SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MIDWEST...AND
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS THERE. BACKSIDE LL CAA AND ISOBARIC ADJUSTMENT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA...WHICH
WILL BE THE CASE INTO THE EVENING. ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING HAS SUPPORTED A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPSLOPE FORCING SUPPORTING
MORE PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL
RIDE NEAR THE LL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTLING JUST SW OF THE FA. THIS
WILL CREATE A WESTERN SHIFT IN THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE
TRACK...SUPPORTING PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
MONDAY. COLDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE FA WILL MAINLY REMAIN
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LL FRONTAL ZONE.

TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE DECENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SOME
LL DRYING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A WANE IN ANY SNOW SHRA
ACTIVITY...ESP THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
MOST OF THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW ADV CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WILL
LET CURRENT HEADLINES RIDE. THE NEXT IMPULSE IN ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL
ARRIVE TOWARD DAWN...SUPPORTING A WEAK FGEN RESPONSE. HAVE CONTINUED
AN UPTICK IN POPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW
INCREASING ACROSS NE WY.

MONDAY...COMPACT SW TROUGH WILL ADVECT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
FA...SUPPORTING RENEWED FGEN WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW WESTERN HALF.
OVERALL...CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LOW OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND PORTIONS OF NE WY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS
GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL SW OF THE
FA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
UPSLOPE FORCING WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND 20-30 KNOTS OF FLOW
IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND FROUDE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SETUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ACCUMS IN THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS...WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR
LODGE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND CHEYENNE CROSSING. ANY SNOW ACCUMS OUTSIDE
OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...STRONGEST OVER NE WY GIVEN
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET WITH THE PASSING IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDWEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE
THROUGH...BRINGING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA...WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME SETTLING ON A CONSISTENT SOLUTION FROM THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES
PERSIST...WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH
WARMER FOR LATE THIS WEEK...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL STILL ON THE
COLDER SIDE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
NOW AND KEEP IT COLDER THAN LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE. IT STILL LOOKS
MAINLY DRY FROM THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS DO LOOK POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT IF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAPPENS TO BE IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER 00Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHSN/MVFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST SD...THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED
SHSN OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-
     025-027-032-041-043-044-046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 232128
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PHASING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STOUT SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MIDWEST...AND
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS THERE. BACKSIDE LL CAA AND ISOBARIC ADJUSTMENT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA...WHICH
WILL BE THE CASE INTO THE EVENING. ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING HAS SUPPORTED A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPSLOPE FORCING SUPPORTING
MORE PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL
RIDE NEAR THE LL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTLING JUST SW OF THE FA. THIS
WILL CREATE A WESTERN SHIFT IN THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE
TRACK...SUPPORTING PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
MONDAY. COLDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE FA WILL MAINLY REMAIN
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LL FRONTAL ZONE.

TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE DECENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SOME
LL DRYING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A WANE IN ANY SNOW SHRA
ACTIVITY...ESP THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
MOST OF THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW ADV CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WILL
LET CURRENT HEADLINES RIDE. THE NEXT IMPULSE IN ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL
ARRIVE TOWARD DAWN...SUPPORTING A WEAK FGEN RESPONSE. HAVE CONTINUED
AN UPTICK IN POPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW
INCREASING ACROSS NE WY.

MONDAY...COMPACT SW TROUGH WILL ADVECT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
FA...SUPPORTING RENEWED FGEN WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW WESTERN HALF.
OVERALL...CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LOW OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND PORTIONS OF NE WY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS
GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL SW OF THE
FA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
UPSLOPE FORCING WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND 20-30 KNOTS OF FLOW
IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND FROUDE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SETUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ACCUMS IN THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS...WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR
LODGE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND CHEYENNE CROSSING. ANY SNOW ACCUMS OUTSIDE
OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...STRONGEST OVER NE WY GIVEN
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET WITH THE PASSING IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDWEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE
THROUGH...BRINGING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA...WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME SETTLING ON A CONSISTENT SOLUTION FROM THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES
PERSIST...WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH
WARMER FOR LATE THIS WEEK...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL STILL ON THE
COLDER SIDE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
NOW AND KEEP IT COLDER THAN LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE. IT STILL LOOKS
MAINLY DRY FROM THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS DO LOOK POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT IF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAPPENS TO BE IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER 00Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHSN/MVFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST SD...THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED
SHSN OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-
     025-027-032-041-043-044-046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26






000
FXUS63 KUNR 232128
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PHASING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STOUT SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MIDWEST...AND
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS THERE. BACKSIDE LL CAA AND ISOBARIC ADJUSTMENT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA...WHICH
WILL BE THE CASE INTO THE EVENING. ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING HAS SUPPORTED A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPSLOPE FORCING SUPPORTING
MORE PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL
RIDE NEAR THE LL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTLING JUST SW OF THE FA. THIS
WILL CREATE A WESTERN SHIFT IN THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE
TRACK...SUPPORTING PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
MONDAY. COLDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE FA WILL MAINLY REMAIN
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LL FRONTAL ZONE.

TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE DECENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SOME
LL DRYING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A WANE IN ANY SNOW SHRA
ACTIVITY...ESP THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
MOST OF THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW ADV CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WILL
LET CURRENT HEADLINES RIDE. THE NEXT IMPULSE IN ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL
ARRIVE TOWARD DAWN...SUPPORTING A WEAK FGEN RESPONSE. HAVE CONTINUED
AN UPTICK IN POPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW
INCREASING ACROSS NE WY.

MONDAY...COMPACT SW TROUGH WILL ADVECT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
FA...SUPPORTING RENEWED FGEN WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW WESTERN HALF.
OVERALL...CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LOW OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND PORTIONS OF NE WY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS
GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL SW OF THE
FA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
UPSLOPE FORCING WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND 20-30 KNOTS OF FLOW
IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND FROUDE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SETUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ACCUMS IN THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS...WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR
LODGE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND CHEYENNE CROSSING. ANY SNOW ACCUMS OUTSIDE
OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...STRONGEST OVER NE WY GIVEN
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET WITH THE PASSING IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDWEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE
THROUGH...BRINGING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA...WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME SETTLING ON A CONSISTENT SOLUTION FROM THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES
PERSIST...WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH
WARMER FOR LATE THIS WEEK...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL STILL ON THE
COLDER SIDE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
NOW AND KEEP IT COLDER THAN LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE. IT STILL LOOKS
MAINLY DRY FROM THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS DO LOOK POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT IF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAPPENS TO BE IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER 00Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHSN/MVFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST SD...THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED
SHSN OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-
     025-027-032-041-043-044-046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 232128
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PHASING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STOUT SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MIDWEST...AND
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS THERE. BACKSIDE LL CAA AND ISOBARIC ADJUSTMENT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA...WHICH
WILL BE THE CASE INTO THE EVENING. ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING HAS SUPPORTED A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPSLOPE FORCING SUPPORTING
MORE PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL
RIDE NEAR THE LL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTLING JUST SW OF THE FA. THIS
WILL CREATE A WESTERN SHIFT IN THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE
TRACK...SUPPORTING PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
MONDAY. COLDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE FA WILL MAINLY REMAIN
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LL FRONTAL ZONE.

TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE DECENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SOME
LL DRYING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A WANE IN ANY SNOW SHRA
ACTIVITY...ESP THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
MOST OF THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW ADV CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WILL
LET CURRENT HEADLINES RIDE. THE NEXT IMPULSE IN ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL
ARRIVE TOWARD DAWN...SUPPORTING A WEAK FGEN RESPONSE. HAVE CONTINUED
AN UPTICK IN POPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW
INCREASING ACROSS NE WY.

MONDAY...COMPACT SW TROUGH WILL ADVECT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
FA...SUPPORTING RENEWED FGEN WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW WESTERN HALF.
OVERALL...CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LOW OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND PORTIONS OF NE WY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS
GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL SW OF THE
FA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
UPSLOPE FORCING WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND 20-30 KNOTS OF FLOW
IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND FROUDE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SETUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ACCUMS IN THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS...WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR
LODGE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND CHEYENNE CROSSING. ANY SNOW ACCUMS OUTSIDE
OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...STRONGEST OVER NE WY GIVEN
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET WITH THE PASSING IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDWEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE
THROUGH...BRINGING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA...WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME SETTLING ON A CONSISTENT SOLUTION FROM THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES
PERSIST...WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH
WARMER FOR LATE THIS WEEK...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL STILL ON THE
COLDER SIDE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
NOW AND KEEP IT COLDER THAN LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE. IT STILL LOOKS
MAINLY DRY FROM THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS DO LOOK POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT IF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAPPENS TO BE IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER 00Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHSN/MVFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST SD...THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED
SHSN OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-
     025-027-032-041-043-044-046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26






000
FXUS63 KABR 232105
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
305 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN ISSUE FACING THE NEAR TERM INVOLVES WINDS(AND ASSOCIATED
HEADLINES) ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES.

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA AS ADVERTISED...WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AROUND THE MO RIVER. LAMP GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH HOPWRF MEMBERS CONT TO SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR ADVRY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED
BUFFALO RIDGE REGION. HAVE EXTENDED COVERAGE OF THE WIND ADVRY TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF MY ERN CWA THROUGH 18Z.

PCPN WISE...REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS DON`T SHOW A LOT FOR THE
AREA...BUT FIGURE THAT THE BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING MUCH OF THE PCPN.
BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...DON`T REALLY THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES ESPECIALLY WITH NO REAL AREAS OF FORCING SEEN
ON THE THETA-E SURFACES OR OMEGA LEVELS. PLUS...WITH WARM TEMPS
MELTING AND/OR CRUSTING SNOWCOVER...DON`T BELIEVE THAT BLSN IS
GOING TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED ALL WORDING.

WITH CAA...TEMPS WILL FREEFALL OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING A TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON CLIPPER LOW TRACK EVEN AS CLOSE AS
TWO DAYS OUT. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE MORE WESTERLY
TRACK...TAKING THE BULK OF SNOW RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA. THE EC/GEM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE BULK
OF SNOW EITHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OR PRETTY MUCH OUT
OF THE CWA ENTIRELY. TAKING MORE OF A MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. THIS RESULTED IN INCREASING
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNT A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...OVER WESTERN SD IT APPEARS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS
UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS AND
INHERITED SUPERBLEND POPS LOOK OK FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT SUPERBLEND GRIDS DO NOT SHOW PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WEST WINDS
AND MILD TEMPS TO OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. FROPA ALREADY THROUGH
KMBG...AND WILL BE THROUGH KPIR BY 20Z...KABR AND KATY BY 23Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. CIGS
WILL BE LOW VFR THROUGH 10Z MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING FEW-SCT.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-
     DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 232105
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
305 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN ISSUE FACING THE NEAR TERM INVOLVES WINDS(AND ASSOCIATED
HEADLINES) ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES.

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA AS ADVERTISED...WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AROUND THE MO RIVER. LAMP GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH HOPWRF MEMBERS CONT TO SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR ADVRY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED
BUFFALO RIDGE REGION. HAVE EXTENDED COVERAGE OF THE WIND ADVRY TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF MY ERN CWA THROUGH 18Z.

PCPN WISE...REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS DON`T SHOW A LOT FOR THE
AREA...BUT FIGURE THAT THE BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING MUCH OF THE PCPN.
BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...DON`T REALLY THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES ESPECIALLY WITH NO REAL AREAS OF FORCING SEEN
ON THE THETA-E SURFACES OR OMEGA LEVELS. PLUS...WITH WARM TEMPS
MELTING AND/OR CRUSTING SNOWCOVER...DON`T BELIEVE THAT BLSN IS
GOING TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED ALL WORDING.

WITH CAA...TEMPS WILL FREEFALL OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING A TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON CLIPPER LOW TRACK EVEN AS CLOSE AS
TWO DAYS OUT. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE MORE WESTERLY
TRACK...TAKING THE BULK OF SNOW RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA. THE EC/GEM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE BULK
OF SNOW EITHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OR PRETTY MUCH OUT
OF THE CWA ENTIRELY. TAKING MORE OF A MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. THIS RESULTED IN INCREASING
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNT A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...OVER WESTERN SD IT APPEARS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS
UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS AND
INHERITED SUPERBLEND POPS LOOK OK FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT SUPERBLEND GRIDS DO NOT SHOW PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WEST WINDS
AND MILD TEMPS TO OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. FROPA ALREADY THROUGH
KMBG...AND WILL BE THROUGH KPIR BY 20Z...KABR AND KATY BY 23Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. CIGS
WILL BE LOW VFR THROUGH 10Z MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING FEW-SCT.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-
     DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 232105
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
305 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN ISSUE FACING THE NEAR TERM INVOLVES WINDS(AND ASSOCIATED
HEADLINES) ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES.

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA AS ADVERTISED...WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AROUND THE MO RIVER. LAMP GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH HOPWRF MEMBERS CONT TO SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR ADVRY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED
BUFFALO RIDGE REGION. HAVE EXTENDED COVERAGE OF THE WIND ADVRY TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF MY ERN CWA THROUGH 18Z.

PCPN WISE...REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS DON`T SHOW A LOT FOR THE
AREA...BUT FIGURE THAT THE BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING MUCH OF THE PCPN.
BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...DON`T REALLY THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES ESPECIALLY WITH NO REAL AREAS OF FORCING SEEN
ON THE THETA-E SURFACES OR OMEGA LEVELS. PLUS...WITH WARM TEMPS
MELTING AND/OR CRUSTING SNOWCOVER...DON`T BELIEVE THAT BLSN IS
GOING TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED ALL WORDING.

WITH CAA...TEMPS WILL FREEFALL OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING A TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON CLIPPER LOW TRACK EVEN AS CLOSE AS
TWO DAYS OUT. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE MORE WESTERLY
TRACK...TAKING THE BULK OF SNOW RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA. THE EC/GEM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE BULK
OF SNOW EITHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OR PRETTY MUCH OUT
OF THE CWA ENTIRELY. TAKING MORE OF A MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. THIS RESULTED IN INCREASING
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNT A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...OVER WESTERN SD IT APPEARS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS
UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS AND
INHERITED SUPERBLEND POPS LOOK OK FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT SUPERBLEND GRIDS DO NOT SHOW PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WEST WINDS
AND MILD TEMPS TO OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. FROPA ALREADY THROUGH
KMBG...AND WILL BE THROUGH KPIR BY 20Z...KABR AND KATY BY 23Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. CIGS
WILL BE LOW VFR THROUGH 10Z MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING FEW-SCT.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-
     DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 232105
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
305 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN ISSUE FACING THE NEAR TERM INVOLVES WINDS(AND ASSOCIATED
HEADLINES) ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES.

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA AS ADVERTISED...WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AROUND THE MO RIVER. LAMP GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH HOPWRF MEMBERS CONT TO SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR ADVRY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED
BUFFALO RIDGE REGION. HAVE EXTENDED COVERAGE OF THE WIND ADVRY TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF MY ERN CWA THROUGH 18Z.

PCPN WISE...REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS DON`T SHOW A LOT FOR THE
AREA...BUT FIGURE THAT THE BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING MUCH OF THE PCPN.
BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...DON`T REALLY THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES ESPECIALLY WITH NO REAL AREAS OF FORCING SEEN
ON THE THETA-E SURFACES OR OMEGA LEVELS. PLUS...WITH WARM TEMPS
MELTING AND/OR CRUSTING SNOWCOVER...DON`T BELIEVE THAT BLSN IS
GOING TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED ALL WORDING.

WITH CAA...TEMPS WILL FREEFALL OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING A TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON CLIPPER LOW TRACK EVEN AS CLOSE AS
TWO DAYS OUT. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE MORE WESTERLY
TRACK...TAKING THE BULK OF SNOW RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA. THE EC/GEM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE BULK
OF SNOW EITHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OR PRETTY MUCH OUT
OF THE CWA ENTIRELY. TAKING MORE OF A MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. THIS RESULTED IN INCREASING
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNT A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...OVER WESTERN SD IT APPEARS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS
UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS AND
INHERITED SUPERBLEND POPS LOOK OK FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT SUPERBLEND GRIDS DO NOT SHOW PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WEST WINDS
AND MILD TEMPS TO OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. FROPA ALREADY THROUGH
KMBG...AND WILL BE THROUGH KPIR BY 20Z...KABR AND KATY BY 23Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. CIGS
WILL BE LOW VFR THROUGH 10Z MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING FEW-SCT.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-
     DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 231757
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1157 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY MILD AIR REMOVES ANY THOUGHT OF PRECIPITATION TYPE OTHER
THAN RAIN WITH FRONTAL/POSTFRONTAL BAND MOVING EAST THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. COOLING WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR ANY
OTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS BAND MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. TEMPORARY
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF LOWER CLOUDS SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING IN MOST AREAS WITH
SOME MARGINAL EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY WEST WHERE THE WARMEST
AIR DID NOT REACH.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WEST...AND WILL GO
WITH A WIND ADVISORY THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO QUITE REACH ADVISORY LEVELS EAST TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...AND WINDS WEST SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL BRING THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE OVER THE AREA.
SOME LOW BASED LIGHT SNOW WITH THESE CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL ON
AMOUNTS WITH NO REAL MID LEVEL SUPPORT OR MOISTURE...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO INCLUDE POPS FOR MINIMALLY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ENOUGH SNOW FOR BLOWING SNOW...
WHATEVER THE WINDS. WINDS MAY PICK UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT EAST AS A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR SPREADS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL
DROP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO...ON THE MINUS SIDE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AND ON THE PLUS SIDE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AS MAJOR CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO FAR AWAY TO TRULY HAVE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON THE AREA...BESIDES THE WIND. MID MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 32
TO 34 KNOTS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT AT LEAST THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL LET THIS AREA BE
FULLY DEFINED BY LATER SHIFTS...BUT WILL HAVE WINDS IN THE GRIDS
SUGGESTIVE OF THE NEED. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...FAIL TO SEE
MUCH TO THINK ANYTHING NEAR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED...AND FOR THE MOST PART WOULD PROBABLY BE BEST COVERED BY
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE DENDRITIC...AND SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE STREETS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW TAKE OVER. SOME AREAS
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN SD GLACIAL HILLS AND BUFFALO RIDGE WOULD
BE A BIT MORE FAVORED TO GET SOME MORE PERSISTENT LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AND PERHAPS A MORE COHERENT SHALLOW SNOWBAND DEVELOPED
WHICH WOULD STREAM SOUTHEAST. WITH THE WIND...WILL BE HARD PRESSED
TO FIND ANY LOCATION THAT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO MEASURE
SNOWFALL...SO FOR NOW THE STRATEGY WILL BE TO DOWNPLAY THE
SNOWFALL OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CWA IN LIEU OF FLURRIES.

NOTE INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG EASTWARD
ADVANCING THERMAL GRADIENT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE WAVE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
SMALL PULSE OF DIV Q AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF THE MOIST LAYER.
NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT COULD GET A FEW FLURRIES IN WARM AIR ADVECTIVE
ZONE DURING THE VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL EVEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURATION DEPTH...
AS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF LACK OF ICE FORMATION WHICH COULD
BRING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE EQUATION. OTHERWISE...A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
AHEAD OF STRONGER CLIPPER WAVE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD BRING A
FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHWEST...WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE LIMITING POPS AT THIS TIME TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...REJECTED THE OUTLIER GFS...AND WENT WITH STRONG
CONSENSUS OF STRONG CLIPPER TRACKING NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS
USUALLY WILL RESULT IN A VERY DISTINCT NON DIURNAL THERMAL TREND
DURING THE NIGHT AS AREA SLIDES INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE FOR A WHILE. EASTERN AREAS AND THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA
COULD EASILY HAVE WARMEST READINGS OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SOMETHING MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME REALIZING. HAVE MADE
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THERMAL TRENDS...BUT KEPT IN MIND THAT
SOME MINOR IMPACT FROM PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION IN TRANSLATING
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF CLIPPER MAY MODERATE THESE TRENDS
A BIT. AT THIS POINT...HAVE MODEST CHANCE POPS AS THE BETTER AND
DEEPER FORCING OCCURS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT STILL ENOUGH
THETA E ADVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS TO SATURATE TO ALLOW SOME
PRECIPITATION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TYPE WITH SNEAKY WARMING ALOFT
SURGING EAST...AGAIN LIKELY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THAN MODELS
INDICATE. OVERALL...MISSOURI VALLEY WOULD LIKELY FEEL FULL IMPACT
OF ANY OVERNIGHT WARMING. BY LATER NIGHT...COLD SURGE WORKING
BEHIND CLIPPER WAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
CWA...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY.

COULD VERY WELL AGAIN BE IN NEED OF WIND HIGHLIGHT FOR A TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. OTHER THAN THE WIND...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY
BEHIND THE EXITING CLIPPER...WITH TEMPS LARGELY STAGNANT TO
FALLING. WHILE COLD AIR ADVANCES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MID LEVEL
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SLOW OR STALL ACROSS THE CWA HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WAVE ENHANCING
LIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. HAVE BOLSTERED PRECIPITATION THREAT
ALONG THIS THERMAL RIBBON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOCUSING MAINLY NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
LOCATION TO KEEP A MINIMAL POP IN THE NORTHEAST.

HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WILL HAVE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF PRECIPITATION THREAT...BUT
SETTING UP WHAT COULD BE COLDEST HIGHS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

IF ANYTHING...THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS LATE WEEK ARE
EVEN MORE SPREAD THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH VERY FEW IN
THE MIDDLE. VAST MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS FOLLOW LINES OF
ECMWF/CANADIAN WHICH DRIVE SOME VERY COLD LOW LEVEL AIR SOUTHWARD
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATING A BIT BY SATURDAY.
GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A QUITE MILD DAY SANDWICHED BETWEEN
THANKSGIVING AND SATURDAY. EACH MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE ITS OWN
PREFERRED LOCATIONS FOR BAROCLINICITY...AND REACTS BY VARIOUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE CHOSEN THE LESS TRAVELED ROAD BY KEEPING THINGS
DRY...BUT STRONGLY SHADING TOWARD COOLER...WITH CONTRIBUTION OF
THE GFS AND ITS DERIVATIVES SEVERELY IMPACTING THE BLEND THIS
MORNING. THE LOCATION OF MAXIMUM SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY MORNING ARE A MEASURE LOWER CONFIDENCE. TRACK OF CLIPPER
WAVES WILL MAKE POTENTIAL THERMAL ERRORS QUITE LARGE...BUT NOT AS
LARGE AS IF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER WAS IN PLACE. HAVE
SHADED LONGER RANGE TEMPS DOWN A TOUCH ON FRIDAY...BUT MAINLY
DAYTIME AS POTENTIAL CLOUDS IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLOUD CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. COULD
HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT
SUSPECT SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-050-052-053-
     057>059-063-064.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 231757
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1157 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY MILD AIR REMOVES ANY THOUGHT OF PRECIPITATION TYPE OTHER
THAN RAIN WITH FRONTAL/POSTFRONTAL BAND MOVING EAST THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. COOLING WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR ANY
OTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS BAND MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. TEMPORARY
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF LOWER CLOUDS SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING IN MOST AREAS WITH
SOME MARGINAL EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY WEST WHERE THE WARMEST
AIR DID NOT REACH.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WEST...AND WILL GO
WITH A WIND ADVISORY THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO QUITE REACH ADVISORY LEVELS EAST TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...AND WINDS WEST SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL BRING THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE OVER THE AREA.
SOME LOW BASED LIGHT SNOW WITH THESE CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL ON
AMOUNTS WITH NO REAL MID LEVEL SUPPORT OR MOISTURE...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO INCLUDE POPS FOR MINIMALLY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ENOUGH SNOW FOR BLOWING SNOW...
WHATEVER THE WINDS. WINDS MAY PICK UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT EAST AS A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR SPREADS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL
DROP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO...ON THE MINUS SIDE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AND ON THE PLUS SIDE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AS MAJOR CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO FAR AWAY TO TRULY HAVE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON THE AREA...BESIDES THE WIND. MID MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 32
TO 34 KNOTS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT AT LEAST THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL LET THIS AREA BE
FULLY DEFINED BY LATER SHIFTS...BUT WILL HAVE WINDS IN THE GRIDS
SUGGESTIVE OF THE NEED. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...FAIL TO SEE
MUCH TO THINK ANYTHING NEAR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED...AND FOR THE MOST PART WOULD PROBABLY BE BEST COVERED BY
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE DENDRITIC...AND SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE STREETS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW TAKE OVER. SOME AREAS
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN SD GLACIAL HILLS AND BUFFALO RIDGE WOULD
BE A BIT MORE FAVORED TO GET SOME MORE PERSISTENT LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AND PERHAPS A MORE COHERENT SHALLOW SNOWBAND DEVELOPED
WHICH WOULD STREAM SOUTHEAST. WITH THE WIND...WILL BE HARD PRESSED
TO FIND ANY LOCATION THAT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO MEASURE
SNOWFALL...SO FOR NOW THE STRATEGY WILL BE TO DOWNPLAY THE
SNOWFALL OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CWA IN LIEU OF FLURRIES.

NOTE INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG EASTWARD
ADVANCING THERMAL GRADIENT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE WAVE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
SMALL PULSE OF DIV Q AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF THE MOIST LAYER.
NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT COULD GET A FEW FLURRIES IN WARM AIR ADVECTIVE
ZONE DURING THE VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL EVEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURATION DEPTH...
AS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF LACK OF ICE FORMATION WHICH COULD
BRING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE EQUATION. OTHERWISE...A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
AHEAD OF STRONGER CLIPPER WAVE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD BRING A
FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHWEST...WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE LIMITING POPS AT THIS TIME TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...REJECTED THE OUTLIER GFS...AND WENT WITH STRONG
CONSENSUS OF STRONG CLIPPER TRACKING NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS
USUALLY WILL RESULT IN A VERY DISTINCT NON DIURNAL THERMAL TREND
DURING THE NIGHT AS AREA SLIDES INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE FOR A WHILE. EASTERN AREAS AND THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA
COULD EASILY HAVE WARMEST READINGS OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SOMETHING MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME REALIZING. HAVE MADE
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THERMAL TRENDS...BUT KEPT IN MIND THAT
SOME MINOR IMPACT FROM PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION IN TRANSLATING
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF CLIPPER MAY MODERATE THESE TRENDS
A BIT. AT THIS POINT...HAVE MODEST CHANCE POPS AS THE BETTER AND
DEEPER FORCING OCCURS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT STILL ENOUGH
THETA E ADVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS TO SATURATE TO ALLOW SOME
PRECIPITATION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TYPE WITH SNEAKY WARMING ALOFT
SURGING EAST...AGAIN LIKELY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THAN MODELS
INDICATE. OVERALL...MISSOURI VALLEY WOULD LIKELY FEEL FULL IMPACT
OF ANY OVERNIGHT WARMING. BY LATER NIGHT...COLD SURGE WORKING
BEHIND CLIPPER WAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
CWA...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY.

COULD VERY WELL AGAIN BE IN NEED OF WIND HIGHLIGHT FOR A TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. OTHER THAN THE WIND...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY
BEHIND THE EXITING CLIPPER...WITH TEMPS LARGELY STAGNANT TO
FALLING. WHILE COLD AIR ADVANCES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MID LEVEL
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SLOW OR STALL ACROSS THE CWA HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WAVE ENHANCING
LIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. HAVE BOLSTERED PRECIPITATION THREAT
ALONG THIS THERMAL RIBBON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOCUSING MAINLY NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
LOCATION TO KEEP A MINIMAL POP IN THE NORTHEAST.

HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WILL HAVE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF PRECIPITATION THREAT...BUT
SETTING UP WHAT COULD BE COLDEST HIGHS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

IF ANYTHING...THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS LATE WEEK ARE
EVEN MORE SPREAD THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH VERY FEW IN
THE MIDDLE. VAST MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS FOLLOW LINES OF
ECMWF/CANADIAN WHICH DRIVE SOME VERY COLD LOW LEVEL AIR SOUTHWARD
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATING A BIT BY SATURDAY.
GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A QUITE MILD DAY SANDWICHED BETWEEN
THANKSGIVING AND SATURDAY. EACH MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE ITS OWN
PREFERRED LOCATIONS FOR BAROCLINICITY...AND REACTS BY VARIOUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE CHOSEN THE LESS TRAVELED ROAD BY KEEPING THINGS
DRY...BUT STRONGLY SHADING TOWARD COOLER...WITH CONTRIBUTION OF
THE GFS AND ITS DERIVATIVES SEVERELY IMPACTING THE BLEND THIS
MORNING. THE LOCATION OF MAXIMUM SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY MORNING ARE A MEASURE LOWER CONFIDENCE. TRACK OF CLIPPER
WAVES WILL MAKE POTENTIAL THERMAL ERRORS QUITE LARGE...BUT NOT AS
LARGE AS IF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER WAS IN PLACE. HAVE
SHADED LONGER RANGE TEMPS DOWN A TOUCH ON FRIDAY...BUT MAINLY
DAYTIME AS POTENTIAL CLOUDS IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLOUD CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. COULD
HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT
SUSPECT SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-050-052-053-
     057>059-063-064.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 231757
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1157 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY MILD AIR REMOVES ANY THOUGHT OF PRECIPITATION TYPE OTHER
THAN RAIN WITH FRONTAL/POSTFRONTAL BAND MOVING EAST THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. COOLING WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR ANY
OTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS BAND MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. TEMPORARY
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF LOWER CLOUDS SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING IN MOST AREAS WITH
SOME MARGINAL EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY WEST WHERE THE WARMEST
AIR DID NOT REACH.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WEST...AND WILL GO
WITH A WIND ADVISORY THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO QUITE REACH ADVISORY LEVELS EAST TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...AND WINDS WEST SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL BRING THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE OVER THE AREA.
SOME LOW BASED LIGHT SNOW WITH THESE CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL ON
AMOUNTS WITH NO REAL MID LEVEL SUPPORT OR MOISTURE...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO INCLUDE POPS FOR MINIMALLY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ENOUGH SNOW FOR BLOWING SNOW...
WHATEVER THE WINDS. WINDS MAY PICK UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT EAST AS A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR SPREADS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL
DROP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO...ON THE MINUS SIDE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AND ON THE PLUS SIDE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AS MAJOR CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO FAR AWAY TO TRULY HAVE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON THE AREA...BESIDES THE WIND. MID MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 32
TO 34 KNOTS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT AT LEAST THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL LET THIS AREA BE
FULLY DEFINED BY LATER SHIFTS...BUT WILL HAVE WINDS IN THE GRIDS
SUGGESTIVE OF THE NEED. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...FAIL TO SEE
MUCH TO THINK ANYTHING NEAR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED...AND FOR THE MOST PART WOULD PROBABLY BE BEST COVERED BY
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE DENDRITIC...AND SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE STREETS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW TAKE OVER. SOME AREAS
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN SD GLACIAL HILLS AND BUFFALO RIDGE WOULD
BE A BIT MORE FAVORED TO GET SOME MORE PERSISTENT LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AND PERHAPS A MORE COHERENT SHALLOW SNOWBAND DEVELOPED
WHICH WOULD STREAM SOUTHEAST. WITH THE WIND...WILL BE HARD PRESSED
TO FIND ANY LOCATION THAT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO MEASURE
SNOWFALL...SO FOR NOW THE STRATEGY WILL BE TO DOWNPLAY THE
SNOWFALL OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CWA IN LIEU OF FLURRIES.

NOTE INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG EASTWARD
ADVANCING THERMAL GRADIENT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE WAVE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
SMALL PULSE OF DIV Q AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF THE MOIST LAYER.
NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT COULD GET A FEW FLURRIES IN WARM AIR ADVECTIVE
ZONE DURING THE VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL EVEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURATION DEPTH...
AS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF LACK OF ICE FORMATION WHICH COULD
BRING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE EQUATION. OTHERWISE...A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
AHEAD OF STRONGER CLIPPER WAVE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD BRING A
FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHWEST...WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE LIMITING POPS AT THIS TIME TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...REJECTED THE OUTLIER GFS...AND WENT WITH STRONG
CONSENSUS OF STRONG CLIPPER TRACKING NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS
USUALLY WILL RESULT IN A VERY DISTINCT NON DIURNAL THERMAL TREND
DURING THE NIGHT AS AREA SLIDES INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE FOR A WHILE. EASTERN AREAS AND THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA
COULD EASILY HAVE WARMEST READINGS OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SOMETHING MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME REALIZING. HAVE MADE
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THERMAL TRENDS...BUT KEPT IN MIND THAT
SOME MINOR IMPACT FROM PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION IN TRANSLATING
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF CLIPPER MAY MODERATE THESE TRENDS
A BIT. AT THIS POINT...HAVE MODEST CHANCE POPS AS THE BETTER AND
DEEPER FORCING OCCURS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT STILL ENOUGH
THETA E ADVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS TO SATURATE TO ALLOW SOME
PRECIPITATION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TYPE WITH SNEAKY WARMING ALOFT
SURGING EAST...AGAIN LIKELY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THAN MODELS
INDICATE. OVERALL...MISSOURI VALLEY WOULD LIKELY FEEL FULL IMPACT
OF ANY OVERNIGHT WARMING. BY LATER NIGHT...COLD SURGE WORKING
BEHIND CLIPPER WAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
CWA...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY.

COULD VERY WELL AGAIN BE IN NEED OF WIND HIGHLIGHT FOR A TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. OTHER THAN THE WIND...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY
BEHIND THE EXITING CLIPPER...WITH TEMPS LARGELY STAGNANT TO
FALLING. WHILE COLD AIR ADVANCES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MID LEVEL
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SLOW OR STALL ACROSS THE CWA HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WAVE ENHANCING
LIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. HAVE BOLSTERED PRECIPITATION THREAT
ALONG THIS THERMAL RIBBON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOCUSING MAINLY NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
LOCATION TO KEEP A MINIMAL POP IN THE NORTHEAST.

HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WILL HAVE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF PRECIPITATION THREAT...BUT
SETTING UP WHAT COULD BE COLDEST HIGHS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

IF ANYTHING...THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS LATE WEEK ARE
EVEN MORE SPREAD THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH VERY FEW IN
THE MIDDLE. VAST MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS FOLLOW LINES OF
ECMWF/CANADIAN WHICH DRIVE SOME VERY COLD LOW LEVEL AIR SOUTHWARD
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATING A BIT BY SATURDAY.
GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A QUITE MILD DAY SANDWICHED BETWEEN
THANKSGIVING AND SATURDAY. EACH MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE ITS OWN
PREFERRED LOCATIONS FOR BAROCLINICITY...AND REACTS BY VARIOUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE CHOSEN THE LESS TRAVELED ROAD BY KEEPING THINGS
DRY...BUT STRONGLY SHADING TOWARD COOLER...WITH CONTRIBUTION OF
THE GFS AND ITS DERIVATIVES SEVERELY IMPACTING THE BLEND THIS
MORNING. THE LOCATION OF MAXIMUM SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY MORNING ARE A MEASURE LOWER CONFIDENCE. TRACK OF CLIPPER
WAVES WILL MAKE POTENTIAL THERMAL ERRORS QUITE LARGE...BUT NOT AS
LARGE AS IF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER WAS IN PLACE. HAVE
SHADED LONGER RANGE TEMPS DOWN A TOUCH ON FRIDAY...BUT MAINLY
DAYTIME AS POTENTIAL CLOUDS IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLOUD CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. COULD
HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT
SUSPECT SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-050-052-053-
     057>059-063-064.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 231757
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1157 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY MILD AIR REMOVES ANY THOUGHT OF PRECIPITATION TYPE OTHER
THAN RAIN WITH FRONTAL/POSTFRONTAL BAND MOVING EAST THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. COOLING WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR ANY
OTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS BAND MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. TEMPORARY
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF LOWER CLOUDS SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING IN MOST AREAS WITH
SOME MARGINAL EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY WEST WHERE THE WARMEST
AIR DID NOT REACH.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WEST...AND WILL GO
WITH A WIND ADVISORY THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO QUITE REACH ADVISORY LEVELS EAST TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...AND WINDS WEST SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL BRING THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE OVER THE AREA.
SOME LOW BASED LIGHT SNOW WITH THESE CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL ON
AMOUNTS WITH NO REAL MID LEVEL SUPPORT OR MOISTURE...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO INCLUDE POPS FOR MINIMALLY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ENOUGH SNOW FOR BLOWING SNOW...
WHATEVER THE WINDS. WINDS MAY PICK UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT EAST AS A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR SPREADS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL
DROP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO...ON THE MINUS SIDE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AND ON THE PLUS SIDE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AS MAJOR CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO FAR AWAY TO TRULY HAVE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON THE AREA...BESIDES THE WIND. MID MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 32
TO 34 KNOTS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT AT LEAST THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL LET THIS AREA BE
FULLY DEFINED BY LATER SHIFTS...BUT WILL HAVE WINDS IN THE GRIDS
SUGGESTIVE OF THE NEED. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...FAIL TO SEE
MUCH TO THINK ANYTHING NEAR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED...AND FOR THE MOST PART WOULD PROBABLY BE BEST COVERED BY
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE DENDRITIC...AND SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE STREETS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW TAKE OVER. SOME AREAS
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN SD GLACIAL HILLS AND BUFFALO RIDGE WOULD
BE A BIT MORE FAVORED TO GET SOME MORE PERSISTENT LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AND PERHAPS A MORE COHERENT SHALLOW SNOWBAND DEVELOPED
WHICH WOULD STREAM SOUTHEAST. WITH THE WIND...WILL BE HARD PRESSED
TO FIND ANY LOCATION THAT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO MEASURE
SNOWFALL...SO FOR NOW THE STRATEGY WILL BE TO DOWNPLAY THE
SNOWFALL OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CWA IN LIEU OF FLURRIES.

NOTE INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG EASTWARD
ADVANCING THERMAL GRADIENT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE WAVE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
SMALL PULSE OF DIV Q AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF THE MOIST LAYER.
NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT COULD GET A FEW FLURRIES IN WARM AIR ADVECTIVE
ZONE DURING THE VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL EVEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURATION DEPTH...
AS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF LACK OF ICE FORMATION WHICH COULD
BRING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE EQUATION. OTHERWISE...A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
AHEAD OF STRONGER CLIPPER WAVE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD BRING A
FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHWEST...WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE LIMITING POPS AT THIS TIME TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...REJECTED THE OUTLIER GFS...AND WENT WITH STRONG
CONSENSUS OF STRONG CLIPPER TRACKING NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS
USUALLY WILL RESULT IN A VERY DISTINCT NON DIURNAL THERMAL TREND
DURING THE NIGHT AS AREA SLIDES INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE FOR A WHILE. EASTERN AREAS AND THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA
COULD EASILY HAVE WARMEST READINGS OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SOMETHING MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME REALIZING. HAVE MADE
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THERMAL TRENDS...BUT KEPT IN MIND THAT
SOME MINOR IMPACT FROM PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION IN TRANSLATING
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF CLIPPER MAY MODERATE THESE TRENDS
A BIT. AT THIS POINT...HAVE MODEST CHANCE POPS AS THE BETTER AND
DEEPER FORCING OCCURS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT STILL ENOUGH
THETA E ADVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS TO SATURATE TO ALLOW SOME
PRECIPITATION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TYPE WITH SNEAKY WARMING ALOFT
SURGING EAST...AGAIN LIKELY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THAN MODELS
INDICATE. OVERALL...MISSOURI VALLEY WOULD LIKELY FEEL FULL IMPACT
OF ANY OVERNIGHT WARMING. BY LATER NIGHT...COLD SURGE WORKING
BEHIND CLIPPER WAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
CWA...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY.

COULD VERY WELL AGAIN BE IN NEED OF WIND HIGHLIGHT FOR A TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. OTHER THAN THE WIND...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY
BEHIND THE EXITING CLIPPER...WITH TEMPS LARGELY STAGNANT TO
FALLING. WHILE COLD AIR ADVANCES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MID LEVEL
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SLOW OR STALL ACROSS THE CWA HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WAVE ENHANCING
LIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. HAVE BOLSTERED PRECIPITATION THREAT
ALONG THIS THERMAL RIBBON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOCUSING MAINLY NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
LOCATION TO KEEP A MINIMAL POP IN THE NORTHEAST.

HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WILL HAVE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF PRECIPITATION THREAT...BUT
SETTING UP WHAT COULD BE COLDEST HIGHS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

IF ANYTHING...THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS LATE WEEK ARE
EVEN MORE SPREAD THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH VERY FEW IN
THE MIDDLE. VAST MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS FOLLOW LINES OF
ECMWF/CANADIAN WHICH DRIVE SOME VERY COLD LOW LEVEL AIR SOUTHWARD
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATING A BIT BY SATURDAY.
GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A QUITE MILD DAY SANDWICHED BETWEEN
THANKSGIVING AND SATURDAY. EACH MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE ITS OWN
PREFERRED LOCATIONS FOR BAROCLINICITY...AND REACTS BY VARIOUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE CHOSEN THE LESS TRAVELED ROAD BY KEEPING THINGS
DRY...BUT STRONGLY SHADING TOWARD COOLER...WITH CONTRIBUTION OF
THE GFS AND ITS DERIVATIVES SEVERELY IMPACTING THE BLEND THIS
MORNING. THE LOCATION OF MAXIMUM SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY MORNING ARE A MEASURE LOWER CONFIDENCE. TRACK OF CLIPPER
WAVES WILL MAKE POTENTIAL THERMAL ERRORS QUITE LARGE...BUT NOT AS
LARGE AS IF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER WAS IN PLACE. HAVE
SHADED LONGER RANGE TEMPS DOWN A TOUCH ON FRIDAY...BUT MAINLY
DAYTIME AS POTENTIAL CLOUDS IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLOUD CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. COULD
HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT
SUSPECT SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-050-052-053-
     057>059-063-064.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KABR 231750
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1150 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.PREVIOUS UPDATE DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TEMP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT
LOOK FOR READINGS TO BEGIN FALLING SHORTLY AFT 18Z AS WAA BEGINS
TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONALLY...ONCE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WRM FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...DON`T REALLY SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ADDITIONAL CHANCES UNTIL MID AFTERNOON CLOSER TO COLD FROPA. WITH
EXCEPTION BEING THE NW AND NC PARTS OF THE CWA...HAVE REMOVED ALL
MENTION OF PCPN FOR THE CWA. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE ALREADY
SENT.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY.

80KT JET STREAK CENTERED OVER THE CWA THIS AM RESULTING IN LIGHT
RAIN. THE MILD/HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ALL THE
WAY INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WIND SHIFT ALONG THE
ND/MT/CANADIAN BORDER MARKS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE READINGS TO DROP
INTO THE 20S. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT REMAIN LOW AS NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST SHALLOW
BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING WEAK
CONVECTION. MIXED DOWN WINDS ARE ALSO ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A TAD TONIGHT OUT
WEST...WITH ADVISORY WINDS PERSISTING IN THE SISSETON HILLS INTO
MONDAY AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES OVERHEAD AND LAPSE RATES
DROP. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE REGION...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER IMPACTS APPEAR MINIMAL
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS.




.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTENDED MODELS OFFER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
JUST OVER AND OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
BASICALLY NO PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND...WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
THE TUESDAY NIGHT CLIPPER...AND THEN KEEPS POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.







&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WEST WINDS
AND MILD TEMPS TO OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. FROPA ALREADY THROUGH
KMBG...AND WILL BE THROUGH KPIR BY 20Z...KABR AND KATY BY 23Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. CIGS
WILL BE LOW VFR THROUGH 10Z MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING FEW-SCT.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR DAY-
     MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 231750
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1150 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.PREVIOUS UPDATE DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TEMP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT
LOOK FOR READINGS TO BEGIN FALLING SHORTLY AFT 18Z AS WAA BEGINS
TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONALLY...ONCE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WRM FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...DON`T REALLY SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ADDITIONAL CHANCES UNTIL MID AFTERNOON CLOSER TO COLD FROPA. WITH
EXCEPTION BEING THE NW AND NC PARTS OF THE CWA...HAVE REMOVED ALL
MENTION OF PCPN FOR THE CWA. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE ALREADY
SENT.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY.

80KT JET STREAK CENTERED OVER THE CWA THIS AM RESULTING IN LIGHT
RAIN. THE MILD/HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ALL THE
WAY INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WIND SHIFT ALONG THE
ND/MT/CANADIAN BORDER MARKS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE READINGS TO DROP
INTO THE 20S. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT REMAIN LOW AS NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST SHALLOW
BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING WEAK
CONVECTION. MIXED DOWN WINDS ARE ALSO ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A TAD TONIGHT OUT
WEST...WITH ADVISORY WINDS PERSISTING IN THE SISSETON HILLS INTO
MONDAY AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES OVERHEAD AND LAPSE RATES
DROP. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE REGION...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER IMPACTS APPEAR MINIMAL
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS.




.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTENDED MODELS OFFER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
JUST OVER AND OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
BASICALLY NO PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND...WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
THE TUESDAY NIGHT CLIPPER...AND THEN KEEPS POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.







&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WEST WINDS
AND MILD TEMPS TO OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. FROPA ALREADY THROUGH
KMBG...AND WILL BE THROUGH KPIR BY 20Z...KABR AND KATY BY 23Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. CIGS
WILL BE LOW VFR THROUGH 10Z MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING FEW-SCT.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR DAY-
     MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 231750
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1150 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.PREVIOUS UPDATE DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TEMP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT
LOOK FOR READINGS TO BEGIN FALLING SHORTLY AFT 18Z AS WAA BEGINS
TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONALLY...ONCE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WRM FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...DON`T REALLY SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ADDITIONAL CHANCES UNTIL MID AFTERNOON CLOSER TO COLD FROPA. WITH
EXCEPTION BEING THE NW AND NC PARTS OF THE CWA...HAVE REMOVED ALL
MENTION OF PCPN FOR THE CWA. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE ALREADY
SENT.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY.

80KT JET STREAK CENTERED OVER THE CWA THIS AM RESULTING IN LIGHT
RAIN. THE MILD/HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ALL THE
WAY INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WIND SHIFT ALONG THE
ND/MT/CANADIAN BORDER MARKS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE READINGS TO DROP
INTO THE 20S. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT REMAIN LOW AS NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST SHALLOW
BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING WEAK
CONVECTION. MIXED DOWN WINDS ARE ALSO ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A TAD TONIGHT OUT
WEST...WITH ADVISORY WINDS PERSISTING IN THE SISSETON HILLS INTO
MONDAY AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES OVERHEAD AND LAPSE RATES
DROP. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE REGION...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER IMPACTS APPEAR MINIMAL
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS.




.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTENDED MODELS OFFER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
JUST OVER AND OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
BASICALLY NO PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND...WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
THE TUESDAY NIGHT CLIPPER...AND THEN KEEPS POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.







&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WEST WINDS
AND MILD TEMPS TO OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. FROPA ALREADY THROUGH
KMBG...AND WILL BE THROUGH KPIR BY 20Z...KABR AND KATY BY 23Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. CIGS
WILL BE LOW VFR THROUGH 10Z MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING FEW-SCT.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR DAY-
     MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 231750
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1150 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.PREVIOUS UPDATE DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TEMP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT
LOOK FOR READINGS TO BEGIN FALLING SHORTLY AFT 18Z AS WAA BEGINS
TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONALLY...ONCE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WRM FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...DON`T REALLY SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ADDITIONAL CHANCES UNTIL MID AFTERNOON CLOSER TO COLD FROPA. WITH
EXCEPTION BEING THE NW AND NC PARTS OF THE CWA...HAVE REMOVED ALL
MENTION OF PCPN FOR THE CWA. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE ALREADY
SENT.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY.

80KT JET STREAK CENTERED OVER THE CWA THIS AM RESULTING IN LIGHT
RAIN. THE MILD/HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ALL THE
WAY INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WIND SHIFT ALONG THE
ND/MT/CANADIAN BORDER MARKS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE READINGS TO DROP
INTO THE 20S. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT REMAIN LOW AS NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST SHALLOW
BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING WEAK
CONVECTION. MIXED DOWN WINDS ARE ALSO ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A TAD TONIGHT OUT
WEST...WITH ADVISORY WINDS PERSISTING IN THE SISSETON HILLS INTO
MONDAY AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES OVERHEAD AND LAPSE RATES
DROP. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE REGION...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER IMPACTS APPEAR MINIMAL
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS.




.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTENDED MODELS OFFER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
JUST OVER AND OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
BASICALLY NO PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND...WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
THE TUESDAY NIGHT CLIPPER...AND THEN KEEPS POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.







&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WEST WINDS
AND MILD TEMPS TO OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. FROPA ALREADY THROUGH
KMBG...AND WILL BE THROUGH KPIR BY 20Z...KABR AND KATY BY 23Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. CIGS
WILL BE LOW VFR THROUGH 10Z MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING FEW-SCT.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR DAY-
     MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 231722
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1022 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AT 08Z THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD ALMOST COMPLETELY
MOVED OUT OF THE EASTERN EXTREMITIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE
NE-SW BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE
MAIN UPPER VORTICITY LOBE.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT THIS
BEING MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP AT THIS TIME.  IR SATLT IMAGERY SEEMS TO
INDICATE THERE IS PROBABLY SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING WHICH ISN`T SHOWING UP
ON RADAR IMAGERY BECAUSE THE TOPS ARE TOO LOW.

TODAY...THIS INSTABILITY PRECIP RESULTING FROM COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND FILL IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PRECIP BY MID MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLKHLS. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE
THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED BEWEEN 18Z AND 21Z OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN A FAIRLY CONSTANT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK MID OR UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES CROSSING THE REGION. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND.  MONDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHNG
THE LOW TO MID 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE
THROUGH...BRINGING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME SETTLING ON THE FORECAST FROM THANKSGIVING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS HAS GONE BACK TO A WARMER SOLUTION WHILE THE
ECM IS MUCH COLDER. THE ECM IS ALSO SHOWING SNOW LINGERING THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WRN 2/3 OF
THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WILL NOT ADD ANYMORE POPS PAST 00Z
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...STRONGEST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SOME GUSTS
TO NEAR 50 KTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER
00Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHSN/MVFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SD...THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHSN OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-
     025-027-032-041-043-044-046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 231722
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1022 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AT 08Z THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD ALMOST COMPLETELY
MOVED OUT OF THE EASTERN EXTREMITIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE
NE-SW BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE
MAIN UPPER VORTICITY LOBE.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT THIS
BEING MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP AT THIS TIME.  IR SATLT IMAGERY SEEMS TO
INDICATE THERE IS PROBABLY SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING WHICH ISN`T SHOWING UP
ON RADAR IMAGERY BECAUSE THE TOPS ARE TOO LOW.

TODAY...THIS INSTABILITY PRECIP RESULTING FROM COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND FILL IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PRECIP BY MID MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLKHLS. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE
THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED BEWEEN 18Z AND 21Z OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN A FAIRLY CONSTANT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK MID OR UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES CROSSING THE REGION. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND.  MONDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHNG
THE LOW TO MID 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE
THROUGH...BRINGING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME SETTLING ON THE FORECAST FROM THANKSGIVING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS HAS GONE BACK TO A WARMER SOLUTION WHILE THE
ECM IS MUCH COLDER. THE ECM IS ALSO SHOWING SNOW LINGERING THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WRN 2/3 OF
THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WILL NOT ADD ANYMORE POPS PAST 00Z
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...STRONGEST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SOME GUSTS
TO NEAR 50 KTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER
00Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHSN/MVFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SD...THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHSN OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-
     025-027-032-041-043-044-046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 231722
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1022 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AT 08Z THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD ALMOST COMPLETELY
MOVED OUT OF THE EASTERN EXTREMITIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE
NE-SW BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE
MAIN UPPER VORTICITY LOBE.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT THIS
BEING MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP AT THIS TIME.  IR SATLT IMAGERY SEEMS TO
INDICATE THERE IS PROBABLY SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING WHICH ISN`T SHOWING UP
ON RADAR IMAGERY BECAUSE THE TOPS ARE TOO LOW.

TODAY...THIS INSTABILITY PRECIP RESULTING FROM COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND FILL IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PRECIP BY MID MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLKHLS. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE
THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED BEWEEN 18Z AND 21Z OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN A FAIRLY CONSTANT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK MID OR UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES CROSSING THE REGION. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND.  MONDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHNG
THE LOW TO MID 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE
THROUGH...BRINGING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME SETTLING ON THE FORECAST FROM THANKSGIVING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS HAS GONE BACK TO A WARMER SOLUTION WHILE THE
ECM IS MUCH COLDER. THE ECM IS ALSO SHOWING SNOW LINGERING THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WRN 2/3 OF
THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WILL NOT ADD ANYMORE POPS PAST 00Z
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...STRONGEST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SOME GUSTS
TO NEAR 50 KTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER
00Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHSN/MVFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SD...THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHSN OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-
     025-027-032-041-043-044-046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 231722
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1022 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AT 08Z THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD ALMOST COMPLETELY
MOVED OUT OF THE EASTERN EXTREMITIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE
NE-SW BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE
MAIN UPPER VORTICITY LOBE.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT THIS
BEING MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP AT THIS TIME.  IR SATLT IMAGERY SEEMS TO
INDICATE THERE IS PROBABLY SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING WHICH ISN`T SHOWING UP
ON RADAR IMAGERY BECAUSE THE TOPS ARE TOO LOW.

TODAY...THIS INSTABILITY PRECIP RESULTING FROM COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND FILL IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PRECIP BY MID MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLKHLS. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE
THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED BEWEEN 18Z AND 21Z OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN A FAIRLY CONSTANT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK MID OR UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES CROSSING THE REGION. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND.  MONDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHNG
THE LOW TO MID 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE
THROUGH...BRINGING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME SETTLING ON THE FORECAST FROM THANKSGIVING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS HAS GONE BACK TO A WARMER SOLUTION WHILE THE
ECM IS MUCH COLDER. THE ECM IS ALSO SHOWING SNOW LINGERING THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WRN 2/3 OF
THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WILL NOT ADD ANYMORE POPS PAST 00Z
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...STRONGEST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SOME GUSTS
TO NEAR 50 KTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER
00Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHSN/MVFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SD...THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHSN OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-
     025-027-032-041-043-044-046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS63 KABR 231544
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
944 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TEMP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT
LOOK FOR READINGS TO BEGIN FALLING SHORTLY AFT 18Z AS WAA BEGINS
TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONALLY...ONCE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WRM FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...DON`T REALLY SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ADDITIONAL CHANCES UNTIL MID AFTERNOON CLOSER TO COLD FROPA. WITH
EXCEPTION BEING THE NW AND NC PARTS OF THE CWA...HAVE REMOVED ALL
MENTION OF PCPN FOR THE CWA. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE ALREADY
SENT.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY.

80KT JET STREAK CENTERED OVER THE CWA THIS AM RESULTING IN LIGHT
RAIN. THE MILD/HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ALL THE
WAY INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WIND SHIFT ALONG THE
ND/MT/CANADIAN BORDER MARKS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE READINGS TO DROP
INTO THE 20S. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT REMAIN LOW AS NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST SHALLOW
BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING WEAK
CONVECTION. MIXED DOWN WINDS ARE ALSO ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A TAD TONIGHT OUT
WEST...WITH ADVISORY WINDS PERSISTING IN THE SISSETON HILLS INTO
MONDAY AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES OVERHEAD AND LAPSE RATES
DROP. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE REGION...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER IMPACTS APPEAR MINIMAL
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS.




.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTENDED MODELS OFFER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
JUST OVER AND OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
BASICALLY NO PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND...WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
THE TUESDAY NIGHT CLIPPER...AND THEN KEEPS POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH CIGS
AND VSBYS REMAINING AT VFR LEVELS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...AFFECTING KPIR AND KMBG. MVFR CIGS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CWA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR DAY-
     MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 231544
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
944 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TEMP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT
LOOK FOR READINGS TO BEGIN FALLING SHORTLY AFT 18Z AS WAA BEGINS
TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONALLY...ONCE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WRM FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...DON`T REALLY SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ADDITIONAL CHANCES UNTIL MID AFTERNOON CLOSER TO COLD FROPA. WITH
EXCEPTION BEING THE NW AND NC PARTS OF THE CWA...HAVE REMOVED ALL
MENTION OF PCPN FOR THE CWA. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE ALREADY
SENT.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY.

80KT JET STREAK CENTERED OVER THE CWA THIS AM RESULTING IN LIGHT
RAIN. THE MILD/HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ALL THE
WAY INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WIND SHIFT ALONG THE
ND/MT/CANADIAN BORDER MARKS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE READINGS TO DROP
INTO THE 20S. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT REMAIN LOW AS NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST SHALLOW
BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING WEAK
CONVECTION. MIXED DOWN WINDS ARE ALSO ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A TAD TONIGHT OUT
WEST...WITH ADVISORY WINDS PERSISTING IN THE SISSETON HILLS INTO
MONDAY AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES OVERHEAD AND LAPSE RATES
DROP. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE REGION...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER IMPACTS APPEAR MINIMAL
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS.




.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTENDED MODELS OFFER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
JUST OVER AND OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
BASICALLY NO PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND...WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
THE TUESDAY NIGHT CLIPPER...AND THEN KEEPS POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH CIGS
AND VSBYS REMAINING AT VFR LEVELS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...AFFECTING KPIR AND KMBG. MVFR CIGS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CWA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR DAY-
     MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 231544
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
944 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TEMP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT
LOOK FOR READINGS TO BEGIN FALLING SHORTLY AFT 18Z AS WAA BEGINS
TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONALLY...ONCE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WRM FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...DON`T REALLY SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ADDITIONAL CHANCES UNTIL MID AFTERNOON CLOSER TO COLD FROPA. WITH
EXCEPTION BEING THE NW AND NC PARTS OF THE CWA...HAVE REMOVED ALL
MENTION OF PCPN FOR THE CWA. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE ALREADY
SENT.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY.

80KT JET STREAK CENTERED OVER THE CWA THIS AM RESULTING IN LIGHT
RAIN. THE MILD/HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ALL THE
WAY INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WIND SHIFT ALONG THE
ND/MT/CANADIAN BORDER MARKS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE READINGS TO DROP
INTO THE 20S. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT REMAIN LOW AS NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST SHALLOW
BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING WEAK
CONVECTION. MIXED DOWN WINDS ARE ALSO ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A TAD TONIGHT OUT
WEST...WITH ADVISORY WINDS PERSISTING IN THE SISSETON HILLS INTO
MONDAY AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES OVERHEAD AND LAPSE RATES
DROP. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE REGION...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER IMPACTS APPEAR MINIMAL
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS.




.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTENDED MODELS OFFER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
JUST OVER AND OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
BASICALLY NO PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND...WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
THE TUESDAY NIGHT CLIPPER...AND THEN KEEPS POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH CIGS
AND VSBYS REMAINING AT VFR LEVELS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...AFFECTING KPIR AND KMBG. MVFR CIGS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CWA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR DAY-
     MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 231544
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
944 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TEMP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT
LOOK FOR READINGS TO BEGIN FALLING SHORTLY AFT 18Z AS WAA BEGINS
TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONALLY...ONCE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WRM FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...DON`T REALLY SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ADDITIONAL CHANCES UNTIL MID AFTERNOON CLOSER TO COLD FROPA. WITH
EXCEPTION BEING THE NW AND NC PARTS OF THE CWA...HAVE REMOVED ALL
MENTION OF PCPN FOR THE CWA. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE ALREADY
SENT.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY.

80KT JET STREAK CENTERED OVER THE CWA THIS AM RESULTING IN LIGHT
RAIN. THE MILD/HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ALL THE
WAY INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WIND SHIFT ALONG THE
ND/MT/CANADIAN BORDER MARKS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE READINGS TO DROP
INTO THE 20S. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT REMAIN LOW AS NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST SHALLOW
BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING WEAK
CONVECTION. MIXED DOWN WINDS ARE ALSO ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A TAD TONIGHT OUT
WEST...WITH ADVISORY WINDS PERSISTING IN THE SISSETON HILLS INTO
MONDAY AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES OVERHEAD AND LAPSE RATES
DROP. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE REGION...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER IMPACTS APPEAR MINIMAL
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS.




.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTENDED MODELS OFFER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
JUST OVER AND OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
BASICALLY NO PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND...WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
THE TUESDAY NIGHT CLIPPER...AND THEN KEEPS POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH CIGS
AND VSBYS REMAINING AT VFR LEVELS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...AFFECTING KPIR AND KMBG. MVFR CIGS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CWA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR DAY-
     MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 231127 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
527 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY.

80KT JET STREAK CENTERED OVER THE CWA THIS AM RESULTING IN LIGHT
RAIN. THE MILD/HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ALL THE
WAY INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WIND SHIFT ALONG THE
ND/MT/CANADIAN BORDER MARKS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE READINGS TO DROP
INTO THE 20S. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT REMAIN LOW AS NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST SHALLOW
BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING WEAK
CONVECTION. MIXED DOWN WINDS ARE ALSO ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A TAD TONIGHT OUT
WEST...WITH ADVISORY WINDS PERSISTING IN THE SISSETON HILLS INTO
MONDAY AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES OVERHEAD AND LAPSE RATES
DROP. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE REGION...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER IMPACTS APPEAR MINIMAL
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTENDED MODELS OFFER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
JUST OVER AND OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
BASICALLY NO PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND...WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
THE TUESDAY NIGHT CLIPPER...AND THEN KEEPS POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH CIGS
AND VSBYS REMAINING AT VFR LEVELS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...AFFECTING KPIR AND KMBG. MVFR CIGS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CWA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST
     /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-
     JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR DAY-
     MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-
     BUFFALO-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 231127 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
527 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY.

80KT JET STREAK CENTERED OVER THE CWA THIS AM RESULTING IN LIGHT
RAIN. THE MILD/HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ALL THE
WAY INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WIND SHIFT ALONG THE
ND/MT/CANADIAN BORDER MARKS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE READINGS TO DROP
INTO THE 20S. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT REMAIN LOW AS NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST SHALLOW
BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING WEAK
CONVECTION. MIXED DOWN WINDS ARE ALSO ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A TAD TONIGHT OUT
WEST...WITH ADVISORY WINDS PERSISTING IN THE SISSETON HILLS INTO
MONDAY AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES OVERHEAD AND LAPSE RATES
DROP. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE REGION...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER IMPACTS APPEAR MINIMAL
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTENDED MODELS OFFER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
JUST OVER AND OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
BASICALLY NO PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND...WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
THE TUESDAY NIGHT CLIPPER...AND THEN KEEPS POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH CIGS
AND VSBYS REMAINING AT VFR LEVELS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...AFFECTING KPIR AND KMBG. MVFR CIGS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CWA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST
     /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-
     JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR DAY-
     MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-
     BUFFALO-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 231126
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
526 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY MILD AIR REMOVES ANY THOUGHT OF PRECIPITATION TYPE OTHER
THAN RAIN WITH FRONTAL/POSTFRONTAL BAND MOVING EAST THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. COOLING WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR ANY
OTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS BAND MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. TEMPORARY
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF LOWER CLOUDS SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING IN MOST AREAS WITH
SOME MARGINAL EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY WEST WHERE THE WARMEST
AIR DID NOT REACH.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WEST...AND WILL GO
WITH A WIND ADVISORY THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO QUITE REACH ADVISORY LEVELS EAST TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...AND WINDS WEST SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL BRING THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE OVER THE AREA.
SOME LOW BASED LIGHT SNOW WITH THESE CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL ON
AMOUNTS WITH NO REAL MID LEVEL SUPPORT OR MOISTURE...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO INCLUDE POPS FOR MINIMALLY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ENOUGH SNOW FOR BLOWING SNOW...
WHATEVER THE WINDS. WINDS MAY PICK UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT EAST AS A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR SPREADS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL
DROP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO...ON THE MINUS SIDE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AND ON THE PLUS SIDE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AS MAJOR CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO FAR AWAY TO TRULY HAVE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON THE AREA...BESIDES THE WIND. MID MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 32
TO 34 KNOTS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT AT LEAST THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL LET THIS AREA BE
FULLY DEFINED BY LATER SHIFTS...BUT WILL HAVE WINDS IN THE GRIDS
SUGGESTIVE OF THE NEED. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...FAIL TO SEE
MUCH TO THINK ANYTHING NEAR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED...AND FOR THE MOST PART WOULD PROBABLY BE BEST COVERED BY
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE DENDRITIC...AND SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE STREETS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW TAKE OVER. SOME AREAS
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN SD GLACIAL HILLS AND BUFFALO RIDGE WOULD
BE A BIT MORE FAVORED TO GET SOME MORE PERSISTENT LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AND PERHAPS A MORE COHERENT SHALLOW SNOWBAND DEVELOPED
WHICH WOULD STREAM SOUTHEAST. WITH THE WIND...WILL BE HARD PRESSED
TO FIND ANY LOCATION THAT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO MEASURE
SNOWFALL...SO FOR NOW THE STRATEGY WILL BE TO DOWNPLAY THE
SNOWFALL OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CWA IN LIEU OF FLURRIES.

NOTE INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG EASTWARD
ADVANCING THERMAL GRADIENT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE WAVE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
SMALL PULSE OF DIV Q AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF THE MOIST LAYER.
NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT COULD GET A FEW FLURRIES IN WARM AIR ADVECTIVE
ZONE DURING THE VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL EVEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURATION DEPTH...
AS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF LACK OF ICE FORMATION WHICH COULD
BRING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE EQUATION. OTHERWISE...A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
AHEAD OF STRONGER CLIPPER WAVE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD BRING A
FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHWEST...WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE LIMITING POPS AT THIS TIME TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...REJECTED THE OUTLIER GFS...AND WENT WITH STRONG
CONSENSUS OF STRONG CLIPPER TRACKING NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS
USUALLY WILL RESULT IN A VERY DISTINCT NON DIURNAL THERMAL TREND
DURING THE NIGHT AS AREA SLIDES INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE FOR A WHILE. EASTERN AREAS AND THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA
COULD EASILY HAVE WARMEST READINGS OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SOMETHING MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME REALIZING. HAVE MADE
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THERMAL TRENDS...BUT KEPT IN MIND THAT
SOME MINOR IMPACT FROM PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION IN TRANSLATING
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF CLIPPER MAY MODERATE THESE TRENDS
A BIT. AT THIS POINT...HAVE MODEST CHANCE POPS AS THE BETTER AND
DEEPER FORCING OCCURS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT STILL ENOUGH
THETA E ADVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS TO SATURATE TO ALLOW SOME
PRECIPITATION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TYPE WITH SNEAKY WARMING ALOFT
SURGING EAST...AGAIN LIKELY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THAN MODELS
INDICATE. OVERALL...MISSOURI VALLEY WOULD LIKELY FEEL FULL IMPACT
OF ANY OVERNIGHT WARMING. BY LATER NIGHT...COLD SURGE WORKING
BEHIND CLIPPER WAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
CWA...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY.

COULD VERY WELL AGAIN BE IN NEED OF WIND HIGHLIGHT FOR A TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. OTHER THAN THE WIND...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY
BEHIND THE EXITING CLIPPER...WITH TEMPS LARGELY STAGNANT TO
FALLING. WHILE COLD AIR ADVANCES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MID LEVEL
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SLOW OR STALL ACROSS THE CWA HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WAVE ENHANCING
LIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. HAVE BOLSTERED PRECIPITATION THREAT
ALONG THIS THERMAL RIBBON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOCUSING MAINLY NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
LOCATION TO KEEP A MINIMAL POP IN THE NORTHEAST.

HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WILL HAVE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF PRECIPITATION THREAT...BUT
SETTING UP WHAT COULD BE COLDEST HIGHS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

IF ANYTHING...THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS LATE WEEK ARE
EVEN MORE SPREAD THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH VERY FEW IN
THE MIDDLE. VAST MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS FOLLOW LINES OF
ECMWF/CANADIAN WHICH DRIVE SOME VERY COLD LOW LEVEL AIR SOUTHWARD
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATING A BIT BY SATURDAY.
GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A QUITE MILD DAY SANDWICHED BETWEEN
THANKSGIVING AND SATURDAY. EACH MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE ITS OWN
PREFERRED LOCATIONS FOR BAROCLINICITY...AND REACTS BY VARIOUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE CHOSEN THE LESS TRAVELED ROAD BY KEEPING THINGS
DRY...BUT STRONGLY SHADING TOWARD COOLER...WITH CONTRIBUTION OF
THE GFS AND ITS DERIVATIVES SEVERELY IMPACTING THE BLEND THIS
MORNING. THE LOCATION OF MAXIMUM SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY MORNING ARE A MEASURE LOWER CONFIDENCE. TRACK OF CLIPPER
WAVES WILL MAKE POTENTIAL THERMAL ERRORS QUITE LARGE...BUT NOT AS
LARGE AS IF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER WAS IN PLACE. HAVE
SHADED LONGER RANGE TEMPS DOWN A TOUCH ON FRIDAY...BUT MAINLY
DAYTIME AS POTENTIAL CLOUDS IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN FOG
IN SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA WILL DECREASE THRU 17Z BEHIND A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR..THEN
CEILINGS LOWERING TO 2-3K FEET FROM THE NW AFTER 24/00Z. 24/00Z-
12Z PATCHY LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING WITH LOCAL VISIBILITIES 3-5SM
POSSIBLE. SURFACE GUSTS 25-25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
DEVELOP 15Z-21Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 25/12Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ038-050-052-053-057>059-063-064.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 231126
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
526 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY MILD AIR REMOVES ANY THOUGHT OF PRECIPITATION TYPE OTHER
THAN RAIN WITH FRONTAL/POSTFRONTAL BAND MOVING EAST THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. COOLING WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR ANY
OTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS BAND MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. TEMPORARY
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF LOWER CLOUDS SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING IN MOST AREAS WITH
SOME MARGINAL EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY WEST WHERE THE WARMEST
AIR DID NOT REACH.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WEST...AND WILL GO
WITH A WIND ADVISORY THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO QUITE REACH ADVISORY LEVELS EAST TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...AND WINDS WEST SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL BRING THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE OVER THE AREA.
SOME LOW BASED LIGHT SNOW WITH THESE CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL ON
AMOUNTS WITH NO REAL MID LEVEL SUPPORT OR MOISTURE...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO INCLUDE POPS FOR MINIMALLY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ENOUGH SNOW FOR BLOWING SNOW...
WHATEVER THE WINDS. WINDS MAY PICK UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT EAST AS A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR SPREADS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL
DROP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO...ON THE MINUS SIDE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AND ON THE PLUS SIDE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AS MAJOR CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO FAR AWAY TO TRULY HAVE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON THE AREA...BESIDES THE WIND. MID MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 32
TO 34 KNOTS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT AT LEAST THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL LET THIS AREA BE
FULLY DEFINED BY LATER SHIFTS...BUT WILL HAVE WINDS IN THE GRIDS
SUGGESTIVE OF THE NEED. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...FAIL TO SEE
MUCH TO THINK ANYTHING NEAR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED...AND FOR THE MOST PART WOULD PROBABLY BE BEST COVERED BY
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE DENDRITIC...AND SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE STREETS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW TAKE OVER. SOME AREAS
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN SD GLACIAL HILLS AND BUFFALO RIDGE WOULD
BE A BIT MORE FAVORED TO GET SOME MORE PERSISTENT LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AND PERHAPS A MORE COHERENT SHALLOW SNOWBAND DEVELOPED
WHICH WOULD STREAM SOUTHEAST. WITH THE WIND...WILL BE HARD PRESSED
TO FIND ANY LOCATION THAT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO MEASURE
SNOWFALL...SO FOR NOW THE STRATEGY WILL BE TO DOWNPLAY THE
SNOWFALL OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CWA IN LIEU OF FLURRIES.

NOTE INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG EASTWARD
ADVANCING THERMAL GRADIENT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE WAVE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
SMALL PULSE OF DIV Q AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF THE MOIST LAYER.
NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT COULD GET A FEW FLURRIES IN WARM AIR ADVECTIVE
ZONE DURING THE VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL EVEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURATION DEPTH...
AS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF LACK OF ICE FORMATION WHICH COULD
BRING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE EQUATION. OTHERWISE...A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
AHEAD OF STRONGER CLIPPER WAVE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD BRING A
FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHWEST...WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE LIMITING POPS AT THIS TIME TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...REJECTED THE OUTLIER GFS...AND WENT WITH STRONG
CONSENSUS OF STRONG CLIPPER TRACKING NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS
USUALLY WILL RESULT IN A VERY DISTINCT NON DIURNAL THERMAL TREND
DURING THE NIGHT AS AREA SLIDES INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE FOR A WHILE. EASTERN AREAS AND THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA
COULD EASILY HAVE WARMEST READINGS OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SOMETHING MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME REALIZING. HAVE MADE
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THERMAL TRENDS...BUT KEPT IN MIND THAT
SOME MINOR IMPACT FROM PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION IN TRANSLATING
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF CLIPPER MAY MODERATE THESE TRENDS
A BIT. AT THIS POINT...HAVE MODEST CHANCE POPS AS THE BETTER AND
DEEPER FORCING OCCURS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT STILL ENOUGH
THETA E ADVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS TO SATURATE TO ALLOW SOME
PRECIPITATION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TYPE WITH SNEAKY WARMING ALOFT
SURGING EAST...AGAIN LIKELY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THAN MODELS
INDICATE. OVERALL...MISSOURI VALLEY WOULD LIKELY FEEL FULL IMPACT
OF ANY OVERNIGHT WARMING. BY LATER NIGHT...COLD SURGE WORKING
BEHIND CLIPPER WAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
CWA...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY.

COULD VERY WELL AGAIN BE IN NEED OF WIND HIGHLIGHT FOR A TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. OTHER THAN THE WIND...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY
BEHIND THE EXITING CLIPPER...WITH TEMPS LARGELY STAGNANT TO
FALLING. WHILE COLD AIR ADVANCES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MID LEVEL
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SLOW OR STALL ACROSS THE CWA HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WAVE ENHANCING
LIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. HAVE BOLSTERED PRECIPITATION THREAT
ALONG THIS THERMAL RIBBON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOCUSING MAINLY NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
LOCATION TO KEEP A MINIMAL POP IN THE NORTHEAST.

HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WILL HAVE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF PRECIPITATION THREAT...BUT
SETTING UP WHAT COULD BE COLDEST HIGHS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

IF ANYTHING...THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS LATE WEEK ARE
EVEN MORE SPREAD THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH VERY FEW IN
THE MIDDLE. VAST MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS FOLLOW LINES OF
ECMWF/CANADIAN WHICH DRIVE SOME VERY COLD LOW LEVEL AIR SOUTHWARD
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATING A BIT BY SATURDAY.
GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A QUITE MILD DAY SANDWICHED BETWEEN
THANKSGIVING AND SATURDAY. EACH MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE ITS OWN
PREFERRED LOCATIONS FOR BAROCLINICITY...AND REACTS BY VARIOUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE CHOSEN THE LESS TRAVELED ROAD BY KEEPING THINGS
DRY...BUT STRONGLY SHADING TOWARD COOLER...WITH CONTRIBUTION OF
THE GFS AND ITS DERIVATIVES SEVERELY IMPACTING THE BLEND THIS
MORNING. THE LOCATION OF MAXIMUM SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY MORNING ARE A MEASURE LOWER CONFIDENCE. TRACK OF CLIPPER
WAVES WILL MAKE POTENTIAL THERMAL ERRORS QUITE LARGE...BUT NOT AS
LARGE AS IF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER WAS IN PLACE. HAVE
SHADED LONGER RANGE TEMPS DOWN A TOUCH ON FRIDAY...BUT MAINLY
DAYTIME AS POTENTIAL CLOUDS IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN FOG
IN SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA WILL DECREASE THRU 17Z BEHIND A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR..THEN
CEILINGS LOWERING TO 2-3K FEET FROM THE NW AFTER 24/00Z. 24/00Z-
12Z PATCHY LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING WITH LOCAL VISIBILITIES 3-5SM
POSSIBLE. SURFACE GUSTS 25-25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
DEVELOP 15Z-21Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 25/12Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ038-050-052-053-057>059-063-064.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 231126
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
526 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY MILD AIR REMOVES ANY THOUGHT OF PRECIPITATION TYPE OTHER
THAN RAIN WITH FRONTAL/POSTFRONTAL BAND MOVING EAST THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. COOLING WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR ANY
OTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS BAND MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. TEMPORARY
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF LOWER CLOUDS SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING IN MOST AREAS WITH
SOME MARGINAL EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY WEST WHERE THE WARMEST
AIR DID NOT REACH.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WEST...AND WILL GO
WITH A WIND ADVISORY THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO QUITE REACH ADVISORY LEVELS EAST TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...AND WINDS WEST SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL BRING THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE OVER THE AREA.
SOME LOW BASED LIGHT SNOW WITH THESE CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL ON
AMOUNTS WITH NO REAL MID LEVEL SUPPORT OR MOISTURE...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO INCLUDE POPS FOR MINIMALLY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ENOUGH SNOW FOR BLOWING SNOW...
WHATEVER THE WINDS. WINDS MAY PICK UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT EAST AS A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR SPREADS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL
DROP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO...ON THE MINUS SIDE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AND ON THE PLUS SIDE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AS MAJOR CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO FAR AWAY TO TRULY HAVE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON THE AREA...BESIDES THE WIND. MID MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 32
TO 34 KNOTS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT AT LEAST THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL LET THIS AREA BE
FULLY DEFINED BY LATER SHIFTS...BUT WILL HAVE WINDS IN THE GRIDS
SUGGESTIVE OF THE NEED. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...FAIL TO SEE
MUCH TO THINK ANYTHING NEAR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED...AND FOR THE MOST PART WOULD PROBABLY BE BEST COVERED BY
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE DENDRITIC...AND SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE STREETS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW TAKE OVER. SOME AREAS
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN SD GLACIAL HILLS AND BUFFALO RIDGE WOULD
BE A BIT MORE FAVORED TO GET SOME MORE PERSISTENT LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AND PERHAPS A MORE COHERENT SHALLOW SNOWBAND DEVELOPED
WHICH WOULD STREAM SOUTHEAST. WITH THE WIND...WILL BE HARD PRESSED
TO FIND ANY LOCATION THAT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO MEASURE
SNOWFALL...SO FOR NOW THE STRATEGY WILL BE TO DOWNPLAY THE
SNOWFALL OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CWA IN LIEU OF FLURRIES.

NOTE INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG EASTWARD
ADVANCING THERMAL GRADIENT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE WAVE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
SMALL PULSE OF DIV Q AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF THE MOIST LAYER.
NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT COULD GET A FEW FLURRIES IN WARM AIR ADVECTIVE
ZONE DURING THE VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL EVEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURATION DEPTH...
AS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF LACK OF ICE FORMATION WHICH COULD
BRING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE EQUATION. OTHERWISE...A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
AHEAD OF STRONGER CLIPPER WAVE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD BRING A
FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHWEST...WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE LIMITING POPS AT THIS TIME TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...REJECTED THE OUTLIER GFS...AND WENT WITH STRONG
CONSENSUS OF STRONG CLIPPER TRACKING NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS
USUALLY WILL RESULT IN A VERY DISTINCT NON DIURNAL THERMAL TREND
DURING THE NIGHT AS AREA SLIDES INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE FOR A WHILE. EASTERN AREAS AND THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA
COULD EASILY HAVE WARMEST READINGS OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SOMETHING MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME REALIZING. HAVE MADE
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THERMAL TRENDS...BUT KEPT IN MIND THAT
SOME MINOR IMPACT FROM PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION IN TRANSLATING
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF CLIPPER MAY MODERATE THESE TRENDS
A BIT. AT THIS POINT...HAVE MODEST CHANCE POPS AS THE BETTER AND
DEEPER FORCING OCCURS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT STILL ENOUGH
THETA E ADVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS TO SATURATE TO ALLOW SOME
PRECIPITATION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TYPE WITH SNEAKY WARMING ALOFT
SURGING EAST...AGAIN LIKELY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THAN MODELS
INDICATE. OVERALL...MISSOURI VALLEY WOULD LIKELY FEEL FULL IMPACT
OF ANY OVERNIGHT WARMING. BY LATER NIGHT...COLD SURGE WORKING
BEHIND CLIPPER WAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
CWA...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY.

COULD VERY WELL AGAIN BE IN NEED OF WIND HIGHLIGHT FOR A TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. OTHER THAN THE WIND...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY
BEHIND THE EXITING CLIPPER...WITH TEMPS LARGELY STAGNANT TO
FALLING. WHILE COLD AIR ADVANCES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MID LEVEL
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SLOW OR STALL ACROSS THE CWA HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WAVE ENHANCING
LIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. HAVE BOLSTERED PRECIPITATION THREAT
ALONG THIS THERMAL RIBBON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOCUSING MAINLY NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
LOCATION TO KEEP A MINIMAL POP IN THE NORTHEAST.

HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WILL HAVE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF PRECIPITATION THREAT...BUT
SETTING UP WHAT COULD BE COLDEST HIGHS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

IF ANYTHING...THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS LATE WEEK ARE
EVEN MORE SPREAD THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH VERY FEW IN
THE MIDDLE. VAST MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS FOLLOW LINES OF
ECMWF/CANADIAN WHICH DRIVE SOME VERY COLD LOW LEVEL AIR SOUTHWARD
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATING A BIT BY SATURDAY.
GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A QUITE MILD DAY SANDWICHED BETWEEN
THANKSGIVING AND SATURDAY. EACH MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE ITS OWN
PREFERRED LOCATIONS FOR BAROCLINICITY...AND REACTS BY VARIOUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE CHOSEN THE LESS TRAVELED ROAD BY KEEPING THINGS
DRY...BUT STRONGLY SHADING TOWARD COOLER...WITH CONTRIBUTION OF
THE GFS AND ITS DERIVATIVES SEVERELY IMPACTING THE BLEND THIS
MORNING. THE LOCATION OF MAXIMUM SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY MORNING ARE A MEASURE LOWER CONFIDENCE. TRACK OF CLIPPER
WAVES WILL MAKE POTENTIAL THERMAL ERRORS QUITE LARGE...BUT NOT AS
LARGE AS IF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER WAS IN PLACE. HAVE
SHADED LONGER RANGE TEMPS DOWN A TOUCH ON FRIDAY...BUT MAINLY
DAYTIME AS POTENTIAL CLOUDS IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN FOG
IN SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA WILL DECREASE THRU 17Z BEHIND A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR..THEN
CEILINGS LOWERING TO 2-3K FEET FROM THE NW AFTER 24/00Z. 24/00Z-
12Z PATCHY LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING WITH LOCAL VISIBILITIES 3-5SM
POSSIBLE. SURFACE GUSTS 25-25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
DEVELOP 15Z-21Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 25/12Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ038-050-052-053-057>059-063-064.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 231126
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
526 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY MILD AIR REMOVES ANY THOUGHT OF PRECIPITATION TYPE OTHER
THAN RAIN WITH FRONTAL/POSTFRONTAL BAND MOVING EAST THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. COOLING WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR ANY
OTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS BAND MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. TEMPORARY
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF LOWER CLOUDS SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING IN MOST AREAS WITH
SOME MARGINAL EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY WEST WHERE THE WARMEST
AIR DID NOT REACH.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WEST...AND WILL GO
WITH A WIND ADVISORY THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO QUITE REACH ADVISORY LEVELS EAST TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...AND WINDS WEST SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL BRING THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE OVER THE AREA.
SOME LOW BASED LIGHT SNOW WITH THESE CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL ON
AMOUNTS WITH NO REAL MID LEVEL SUPPORT OR MOISTURE...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO INCLUDE POPS FOR MINIMALLY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ENOUGH SNOW FOR BLOWING SNOW...
WHATEVER THE WINDS. WINDS MAY PICK UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT EAST AS A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR SPREADS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL
DROP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO...ON THE MINUS SIDE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AND ON THE PLUS SIDE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AS MAJOR CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO FAR AWAY TO TRULY HAVE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON THE AREA...BESIDES THE WIND. MID MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 32
TO 34 KNOTS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT AT LEAST THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL LET THIS AREA BE
FULLY DEFINED BY LATER SHIFTS...BUT WILL HAVE WINDS IN THE GRIDS
SUGGESTIVE OF THE NEED. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...FAIL TO SEE
MUCH TO THINK ANYTHING NEAR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED...AND FOR THE MOST PART WOULD PROBABLY BE BEST COVERED BY
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE DENDRITIC...AND SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE STREETS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW TAKE OVER. SOME AREAS
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN SD GLACIAL HILLS AND BUFFALO RIDGE WOULD
BE A BIT MORE FAVORED TO GET SOME MORE PERSISTENT LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AND PERHAPS A MORE COHERENT SHALLOW SNOWBAND DEVELOPED
WHICH WOULD STREAM SOUTHEAST. WITH THE WIND...WILL BE HARD PRESSED
TO FIND ANY LOCATION THAT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO MEASURE
SNOWFALL...SO FOR NOW THE STRATEGY WILL BE TO DOWNPLAY THE
SNOWFALL OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CWA IN LIEU OF FLURRIES.

NOTE INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG EASTWARD
ADVANCING THERMAL GRADIENT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE WAVE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
SMALL PULSE OF DIV Q AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF THE MOIST LAYER.
NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT COULD GET A FEW FLURRIES IN WARM AIR ADVECTIVE
ZONE DURING THE VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL EVEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURATION DEPTH...
AS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF LACK OF ICE FORMATION WHICH COULD
BRING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE EQUATION. OTHERWISE...A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
AHEAD OF STRONGER CLIPPER WAVE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD BRING A
FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHWEST...WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE LIMITING POPS AT THIS TIME TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...REJECTED THE OUTLIER GFS...AND WENT WITH STRONG
CONSENSUS OF STRONG CLIPPER TRACKING NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS
USUALLY WILL RESULT IN A VERY DISTINCT NON DIURNAL THERMAL TREND
DURING THE NIGHT AS AREA SLIDES INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE FOR A WHILE. EASTERN AREAS AND THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA
COULD EASILY HAVE WARMEST READINGS OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SOMETHING MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME REALIZING. HAVE MADE
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THERMAL TRENDS...BUT KEPT IN MIND THAT
SOME MINOR IMPACT FROM PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION IN TRANSLATING
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF CLIPPER MAY MODERATE THESE TRENDS
A BIT. AT THIS POINT...HAVE MODEST CHANCE POPS AS THE BETTER AND
DEEPER FORCING OCCURS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT STILL ENOUGH
THETA E ADVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS TO SATURATE TO ALLOW SOME
PRECIPITATION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TYPE WITH SNEAKY WARMING ALOFT
SURGING EAST...AGAIN LIKELY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THAN MODELS
INDICATE. OVERALL...MISSOURI VALLEY WOULD LIKELY FEEL FULL IMPACT
OF ANY OVERNIGHT WARMING. BY LATER NIGHT...COLD SURGE WORKING
BEHIND CLIPPER WAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
CWA...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY.

COULD VERY WELL AGAIN BE IN NEED OF WIND HIGHLIGHT FOR A TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. OTHER THAN THE WIND...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY
BEHIND THE EXITING CLIPPER...WITH TEMPS LARGELY STAGNANT TO
FALLING. WHILE COLD AIR ADVANCES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MID LEVEL
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SLOW OR STALL ACROSS THE CWA HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WAVE ENHANCING
LIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. HAVE BOLSTERED PRECIPITATION THREAT
ALONG THIS THERMAL RIBBON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOCUSING MAINLY NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
LOCATION TO KEEP A MINIMAL POP IN THE NORTHEAST.

HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WILL HAVE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF PRECIPITATION THREAT...BUT
SETTING UP WHAT COULD BE COLDEST HIGHS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

IF ANYTHING...THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS LATE WEEK ARE
EVEN MORE SPREAD THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH VERY FEW IN
THE MIDDLE. VAST MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS FOLLOW LINES OF
ECMWF/CANADIAN WHICH DRIVE SOME VERY COLD LOW LEVEL AIR SOUTHWARD
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATING A BIT BY SATURDAY.
GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A QUITE MILD DAY SANDWICHED BETWEEN
THANKSGIVING AND SATURDAY. EACH MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE ITS OWN
PREFERRED LOCATIONS FOR BAROCLINICITY...AND REACTS BY VARIOUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE CHOSEN THE LESS TRAVELED ROAD BY KEEPING THINGS
DRY...BUT STRONGLY SHADING TOWARD COOLER...WITH CONTRIBUTION OF
THE GFS AND ITS DERIVATIVES SEVERELY IMPACTING THE BLEND THIS
MORNING. THE LOCATION OF MAXIMUM SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY MORNING ARE A MEASURE LOWER CONFIDENCE. TRACK OF CLIPPER
WAVES WILL MAKE POTENTIAL THERMAL ERRORS QUITE LARGE...BUT NOT AS
LARGE AS IF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER WAS IN PLACE. HAVE
SHADED LONGER RANGE TEMPS DOWN A TOUCH ON FRIDAY...BUT MAINLY
DAYTIME AS POTENTIAL CLOUDS IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN FOG
IN SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA WILL DECREASE THRU 17Z BEHIND A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR..THEN
CEILINGS LOWERING TO 2-3K FEET FROM THE NW AFTER 24/00Z. 24/00Z-
12Z PATCHY LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING WITH LOCAL VISIBILITIES 3-5SM
POSSIBLE. SURFACE GUSTS 25-25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
DEVELOP 15Z-21Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 25/12Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ038-050-052-053-057>059-063-064.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 230958
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
358 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY MILD AIR REMOVES ANY THOUGHT OF PRECIPITATION TYPE OTHER
THAN RAIN WITH FRONTAL/POSTFRONTAL BAND MOVING EAST THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. COOLING WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR ANY
OTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS BAND MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. TEMPORARY
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF LOWER CLOUDS SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING IN MOST AREAS WITH
SOME MARGINAL EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY WEST WHERE THE WARMEST
AIR DID NOT REACH.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WEST...AND WILL GO
WITH A WIND ADVISORY THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO QUITE REACH ADVISORY LEVELS EAST TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...AND WINDS WEST SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL BRING THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE OVER THE AREA.
SOME LOW BASED LIGHT SNOW WITH THESE CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL ON
AMOUNTS WITH NO REAL MID LEVEL SUPPORT OR MOISTURE...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO INCLUDE POPS FOR MINIMALLY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ENOUGH SNOW FOR BLOWING SNOW...
WHATEVER THE WINDS. WINDS MAY PICK UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT EAST AS A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR SPREADS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL
DROP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO...ON THE MINUS SIDE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AND ON THE PLUS SIDE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AS MAJOR CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO FAR AWAY TO TRULY HAVE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON THE AREA...BESIDES THE WIND. MID MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 32
TO 34 KNOTS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT AT LEAST THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL LET THIS AREA BE
FULLY DEFINED BY LATER SHIFTS...BUT WILL HAVE WINDS IN THE GRIDS
SUGGESTIVE OF THE NEED. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...FAIL TO SEE
MUCH TO THINK ANYTHING NEAR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED...AND FOR THE MOST PART WOULD PROBABLY BE BEST COVERED BY
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE DENDRITIC...AND SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE STREETS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW TAKE OVER. SOME AREAS
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN SD GLACIAL HILLS AND BUFFALO RIDGE WOULD
BE A BIT MORE FAVORED TO GET SOME MORE PERSISTENT LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AND PERHAPS A MORE COHERENT SHALLOW SNOWBAND DEVELOPED
WHICH WOULD STREAM SOUTHEAST. WITH THE WIND...WILL BE HARD PRESSED
TO FIND ANY LOCATION THAT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO MEASURE
SNOWFALL...SO FOR NOW THE STRATEGY WILL BE TO DOWNPLAY THE
SNOWFALL OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CWA IN LIEU OF FLURRIES.

NOTE INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG EASTWARD
ADVANCING THERMAL GRADIENT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE WAVE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
SMALL PULSE OF DIV Q AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF THE MOIST LAYER.
NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT COULD GET A FEW FLURRIES IN WARM AIR ADVECTIVE
ZONE DURING THE VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL EVEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURATION DEPTH...
AS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF LACK OF ICE FORMATION WHICH COULD
BRING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE EQUATION. OTHERWISE...A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
AHEAD OF STRONGER CLIPPER WAVE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD BRING A
FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHWEST...WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE LIMITING POPS AT THIS TIME TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...REJECTED THE OUTLIER GFS...AND WENT WITH STRONG
CONSENSUS OF STRONG CLIPPER TRACKING NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS
USUALLY WILL RESULT IN A VERY DISTINCT NON DIURNAL THERMAL TREND
DURING THE NIGHT AS AREA SLIDES INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE FOR A WHILE. EASTERN AREAS AND THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA
COULD EASILY HAVE WARMEST READINGS OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SOMETHING MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME REALIZING. HAVE MADE
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THERMAL TRENDS...BUT KEPT IN MIND THAT
SOME MINOR IMPACT FROM PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION IN TRANSLATING
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF CLIPPER MAY MODERATE THESE TRENDS
A BIT. AT THIS POINT...HAVE MODEST CHANCE POPS AS THE BETTER AND
DEEPER FORCING OCCURS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT STILL ENOUGH
THETA E ADVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS TO SATURATE TO ALLOW SOME
PRECIPITATION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TYPE WITH SNEAKY WARMING ALOFT
SURGING EAST...AGAIN LIKELY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THAN MODELS
INDICATE. OVERALL...MISSOURI VALLEY WOULD LIKELY FEEL FULL IMPACT
OF ANY OVERNIGHT WARMING. BY LATER NIGHT...COLD SURGE WORKING
BEHIND CLIPPER WAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
CWA...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY.

COULD VERY WELL AGAIN BE IN NEED OF WIND HIGHLIGHT FOR A TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. OTHER THAN THE WIND...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY
BEHIND THE EXITING CLIPPER...WITH TEMPS LARGELY STAGNANT TO
FALLING. WHILE COLD AIR ADVANCES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MID LEVEL
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SLOW OR STALL ACROSS THE CWA HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WAVE ENHANCING
LIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. HAVE BOLSTERED PRECIPITATION THREAT
ALONG THIS THERMAL RIBBON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOCUSING MAINLY NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
LOCATION TO KEEP A MINIMAL POP IN THE NORTHEAST.

HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WILL HAVE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF PRECIPITATION THREAT...BUT
SETTING UP WHAT COULD BE COLDEST HIGHS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

IF ANYTHING...THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS LATE WEEK ARE
EVEN MORE SPREAD THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH VERY FEW IN
THE MIDDLE. VAST MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS FOLLOW LINES OF
ECMWF/CANADIAN WHICH DRIVE SOME VERY COLD LOW LEVEL AIR SOUTHWARD
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATING A BIT BY SATURDAY.
GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A QUITE MILD DAY SANDWICHED BETWEEN
THANKSGIVING AND SATURDAY. EACH MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE ITS OWN
PREFERRED LOCATIONS FOR BAROCLINICITY...AND REACTS BY VARIOUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE CHOSEN THE LESS TRAVELED ROAD BY KEEPING THINGS
DRY...BUT STRONGLY SHADING TOWARD COOLER...WITH CONTRIBUTION OF
THE GFS AND ITS DERIVATIVES SEVERELY IMPACTING THE BLEND THIS
MORNING. THE LOCATION OF MAXIMUM SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY MORNING ARE A MEASURE LOWER CONFIDENCE. TRACK OF CLIPPER
WAVES WILL MAKE POTENTIAL THERMAL ERRORS QUITE LARGE...BUT NOT AS
LARGE AS IF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER WAS IN PLACE. HAVE
SHADED LONGER RANGE TEMPS DOWN A TOUCH ON FRIDAY...BUT MAINLY
DAYTIME AS POTENTIAL CLOUDS IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO INCLUDED MENTION IN THE
KSUX TAF. BASED ON OBS WILL KEEP KSUX MVFR...BUT IFR AND LIFR CIGS
ARE NOT TOO FAR AWAY AND COULD MOVE IN...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG FORM...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS PROBABLY BECOMING LESS LIKELY. AGAIN KFSD
WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS AND FOG...BUT BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS THEM STAYING VFR...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR. EXPECT ANY STRATUS TO CLEAR EARLY TO MID MORNING AS A
FRONT SWITCHES WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. COULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN AS THE FRONT CROSSES...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OF
SIGNIFICANCE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON EXPECTING GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 KTS TO BE COMMON AND LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO SHOULD SEE
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME...WITH HEIGHTS LIKELY HIGH END MVFR OR LOW END VFR. ALSO
SHOULD BE SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THAT AS WELL.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ038-050-052-053-057>059-063-064.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 230958
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
358 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY MILD AIR REMOVES ANY THOUGHT OF PRECIPITATION TYPE OTHER
THAN RAIN WITH FRONTAL/POSTFRONTAL BAND MOVING EAST THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. COOLING WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR ANY
OTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS BAND MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. TEMPORARY
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF LOWER CLOUDS SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING IN MOST AREAS WITH
SOME MARGINAL EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY WEST WHERE THE WARMEST
AIR DID NOT REACH.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WEST...AND WILL GO
WITH A WIND ADVISORY THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO QUITE REACH ADVISORY LEVELS EAST TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...AND WINDS WEST SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL BRING THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE OVER THE AREA.
SOME LOW BASED LIGHT SNOW WITH THESE CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL ON
AMOUNTS WITH NO REAL MID LEVEL SUPPORT OR MOISTURE...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO INCLUDE POPS FOR MINIMALLY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ENOUGH SNOW FOR BLOWING SNOW...
WHATEVER THE WINDS. WINDS MAY PICK UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT EAST AS A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR SPREADS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL
DROP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO...ON THE MINUS SIDE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AND ON THE PLUS SIDE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AS MAJOR CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO FAR AWAY TO TRULY HAVE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON THE AREA...BESIDES THE WIND. MID MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 32
TO 34 KNOTS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT AT LEAST THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL LET THIS AREA BE
FULLY DEFINED BY LATER SHIFTS...BUT WILL HAVE WINDS IN THE GRIDS
SUGGESTIVE OF THE NEED. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...FAIL TO SEE
MUCH TO THINK ANYTHING NEAR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED...AND FOR THE MOST PART WOULD PROBABLY BE BEST COVERED BY
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE DENDRITIC...AND SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE STREETS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW TAKE OVER. SOME AREAS
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN SD GLACIAL HILLS AND BUFFALO RIDGE WOULD
BE A BIT MORE FAVORED TO GET SOME MORE PERSISTENT LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AND PERHAPS A MORE COHERENT SHALLOW SNOWBAND DEVELOPED
WHICH WOULD STREAM SOUTHEAST. WITH THE WIND...WILL BE HARD PRESSED
TO FIND ANY LOCATION THAT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO MEASURE
SNOWFALL...SO FOR NOW THE STRATEGY WILL BE TO DOWNPLAY THE
SNOWFALL OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CWA IN LIEU OF FLURRIES.

NOTE INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG EASTWARD
ADVANCING THERMAL GRADIENT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE WAVE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
SMALL PULSE OF DIV Q AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF THE MOIST LAYER.
NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT COULD GET A FEW FLURRIES IN WARM AIR ADVECTIVE
ZONE DURING THE VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL EVEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURATION DEPTH...
AS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF LACK OF ICE FORMATION WHICH COULD
BRING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE EQUATION. OTHERWISE...A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
AHEAD OF STRONGER CLIPPER WAVE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD BRING A
FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHWEST...WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE LIMITING POPS AT THIS TIME TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...REJECTED THE OUTLIER GFS...AND WENT WITH STRONG
CONSENSUS OF STRONG CLIPPER TRACKING NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS
USUALLY WILL RESULT IN A VERY DISTINCT NON DIURNAL THERMAL TREND
DURING THE NIGHT AS AREA SLIDES INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE FOR A WHILE. EASTERN AREAS AND THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA
COULD EASILY HAVE WARMEST READINGS OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SOMETHING MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME REALIZING. HAVE MADE
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THERMAL TRENDS...BUT KEPT IN MIND THAT
SOME MINOR IMPACT FROM PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION IN TRANSLATING
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF CLIPPER MAY MODERATE THESE TRENDS
A BIT. AT THIS POINT...HAVE MODEST CHANCE POPS AS THE BETTER AND
DEEPER FORCING OCCURS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT STILL ENOUGH
THETA E ADVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS TO SATURATE TO ALLOW SOME
PRECIPITATION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TYPE WITH SNEAKY WARMING ALOFT
SURGING EAST...AGAIN LIKELY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THAN MODELS
INDICATE. OVERALL...MISSOURI VALLEY WOULD LIKELY FEEL FULL IMPACT
OF ANY OVERNIGHT WARMING. BY LATER NIGHT...COLD SURGE WORKING
BEHIND CLIPPER WAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
CWA...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY.

COULD VERY WELL AGAIN BE IN NEED OF WIND HIGHLIGHT FOR A TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. OTHER THAN THE WIND...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY
BEHIND THE EXITING CLIPPER...WITH TEMPS LARGELY STAGNANT TO
FALLING. WHILE COLD AIR ADVANCES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MID LEVEL
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SLOW OR STALL ACROSS THE CWA HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WAVE ENHANCING
LIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. HAVE BOLSTERED PRECIPITATION THREAT
ALONG THIS THERMAL RIBBON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOCUSING MAINLY NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
LOCATION TO KEEP A MINIMAL POP IN THE NORTHEAST.

HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WILL HAVE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF PRECIPITATION THREAT...BUT
SETTING UP WHAT COULD BE COLDEST HIGHS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

IF ANYTHING...THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS LATE WEEK ARE
EVEN MORE SPREAD THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH VERY FEW IN
THE MIDDLE. VAST MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS FOLLOW LINES OF
ECMWF/CANADIAN WHICH DRIVE SOME VERY COLD LOW LEVEL AIR SOUTHWARD
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATING A BIT BY SATURDAY.
GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A QUITE MILD DAY SANDWICHED BETWEEN
THANKSGIVING AND SATURDAY. EACH MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE ITS OWN
PREFERRED LOCATIONS FOR BAROCLINICITY...AND REACTS BY VARIOUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE CHOSEN THE LESS TRAVELED ROAD BY KEEPING THINGS
DRY...BUT STRONGLY SHADING TOWARD COOLER...WITH CONTRIBUTION OF
THE GFS AND ITS DERIVATIVES SEVERELY IMPACTING THE BLEND THIS
MORNING. THE LOCATION OF MAXIMUM SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY MORNING ARE A MEASURE LOWER CONFIDENCE. TRACK OF CLIPPER
WAVES WILL MAKE POTENTIAL THERMAL ERRORS QUITE LARGE...BUT NOT AS
LARGE AS IF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER WAS IN PLACE. HAVE
SHADED LONGER RANGE TEMPS DOWN A TOUCH ON FRIDAY...BUT MAINLY
DAYTIME AS POTENTIAL CLOUDS IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO INCLUDED MENTION IN THE
KSUX TAF. BASED ON OBS WILL KEEP KSUX MVFR...BUT IFR AND LIFR CIGS
ARE NOT TOO FAR AWAY AND COULD MOVE IN...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG FORM...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS PROBABLY BECOMING LESS LIKELY. AGAIN KFSD
WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS AND FOG...BUT BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS THEM STAYING VFR...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR. EXPECT ANY STRATUS TO CLEAR EARLY TO MID MORNING AS A
FRONT SWITCHES WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. COULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN AS THE FRONT CROSSES...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OF
SIGNIFICANCE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON EXPECTING GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 KTS TO BE COMMON AND LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO SHOULD SEE
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME...WITH HEIGHTS LIKELY HIGH END MVFR OR LOW END VFR. ALSO
SHOULD BE SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THAT AS WELL.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ038-050-052-053-057>059-063-064.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 230958
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
358 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY MILD AIR REMOVES ANY THOUGHT OF PRECIPITATION TYPE OTHER
THAN RAIN WITH FRONTAL/POSTFRONTAL BAND MOVING EAST THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. COOLING WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR ANY
OTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS BAND MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. TEMPORARY
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF LOWER CLOUDS SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING IN MOST AREAS WITH
SOME MARGINAL EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY WEST WHERE THE WARMEST
AIR DID NOT REACH.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WEST...AND WILL GO
WITH A WIND ADVISORY THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO QUITE REACH ADVISORY LEVELS EAST TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...AND WINDS WEST SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL BRING THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE OVER THE AREA.
SOME LOW BASED LIGHT SNOW WITH THESE CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL ON
AMOUNTS WITH NO REAL MID LEVEL SUPPORT OR MOISTURE...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO INCLUDE POPS FOR MINIMALLY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ENOUGH SNOW FOR BLOWING SNOW...
WHATEVER THE WINDS. WINDS MAY PICK UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT EAST AS A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR SPREADS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL
DROP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO...ON THE MINUS SIDE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AND ON THE PLUS SIDE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AS MAJOR CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO FAR AWAY TO TRULY HAVE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON THE AREA...BESIDES THE WIND. MID MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 32
TO 34 KNOTS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT AT LEAST THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL LET THIS AREA BE
FULLY DEFINED BY LATER SHIFTS...BUT WILL HAVE WINDS IN THE GRIDS
SUGGESTIVE OF THE NEED. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...FAIL TO SEE
MUCH TO THINK ANYTHING NEAR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED...AND FOR THE MOST PART WOULD PROBABLY BE BEST COVERED BY
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE DENDRITIC...AND SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE STREETS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW TAKE OVER. SOME AREAS
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN SD GLACIAL HILLS AND BUFFALO RIDGE WOULD
BE A BIT MORE FAVORED TO GET SOME MORE PERSISTENT LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AND PERHAPS A MORE COHERENT SHALLOW SNOWBAND DEVELOPED
WHICH WOULD STREAM SOUTHEAST. WITH THE WIND...WILL BE HARD PRESSED
TO FIND ANY LOCATION THAT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO MEASURE
SNOWFALL...SO FOR NOW THE STRATEGY WILL BE TO DOWNPLAY THE
SNOWFALL OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CWA IN LIEU OF FLURRIES.

NOTE INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG EASTWARD
ADVANCING THERMAL GRADIENT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE WAVE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
SMALL PULSE OF DIV Q AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF THE MOIST LAYER.
NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT COULD GET A FEW FLURRIES IN WARM AIR ADVECTIVE
ZONE DURING THE VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL EVEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURATION DEPTH...
AS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF LACK OF ICE FORMATION WHICH COULD
BRING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE EQUATION. OTHERWISE...A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
AHEAD OF STRONGER CLIPPER WAVE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD BRING A
FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHWEST...WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE LIMITING POPS AT THIS TIME TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...REJECTED THE OUTLIER GFS...AND WENT WITH STRONG
CONSENSUS OF STRONG CLIPPER TRACKING NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS
USUALLY WILL RESULT IN A VERY DISTINCT NON DIURNAL THERMAL TREND
DURING THE NIGHT AS AREA SLIDES INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE FOR A WHILE. EASTERN AREAS AND THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA
COULD EASILY HAVE WARMEST READINGS OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SOMETHING MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME REALIZING. HAVE MADE
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THERMAL TRENDS...BUT KEPT IN MIND THAT
SOME MINOR IMPACT FROM PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION IN TRANSLATING
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF CLIPPER MAY MODERATE THESE TRENDS
A BIT. AT THIS POINT...HAVE MODEST CHANCE POPS AS THE BETTER AND
DEEPER FORCING OCCURS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT STILL ENOUGH
THETA E ADVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS TO SATURATE TO ALLOW SOME
PRECIPITATION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TYPE WITH SNEAKY WARMING ALOFT
SURGING EAST...AGAIN LIKELY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THAN MODELS
INDICATE. OVERALL...MISSOURI VALLEY WOULD LIKELY FEEL FULL IMPACT
OF ANY OVERNIGHT WARMING. BY LATER NIGHT...COLD SURGE WORKING
BEHIND CLIPPER WAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
CWA...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY.

COULD VERY WELL AGAIN BE IN NEED OF WIND HIGHLIGHT FOR A TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. OTHER THAN THE WIND...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY
BEHIND THE EXITING CLIPPER...WITH TEMPS LARGELY STAGNANT TO
FALLING. WHILE COLD AIR ADVANCES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MID LEVEL
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SLOW OR STALL ACROSS THE CWA HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WAVE ENHANCING
LIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. HAVE BOLSTERED PRECIPITATION THREAT
ALONG THIS THERMAL RIBBON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOCUSING MAINLY NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
LOCATION TO KEEP A MINIMAL POP IN THE NORTHEAST.

HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WILL HAVE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF PRECIPITATION THREAT...BUT
SETTING UP WHAT COULD BE COLDEST HIGHS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

IF ANYTHING...THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS LATE WEEK ARE
EVEN MORE SPREAD THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH VERY FEW IN
THE MIDDLE. VAST MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS FOLLOW LINES OF
ECMWF/CANADIAN WHICH DRIVE SOME VERY COLD LOW LEVEL AIR SOUTHWARD
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATING A BIT BY SATURDAY.
GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A QUITE MILD DAY SANDWICHED BETWEEN
THANKSGIVING AND SATURDAY. EACH MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE ITS OWN
PREFERRED LOCATIONS FOR BAROCLINICITY...AND REACTS BY VARIOUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE CHOSEN THE LESS TRAVELED ROAD BY KEEPING THINGS
DRY...BUT STRONGLY SHADING TOWARD COOLER...WITH CONTRIBUTION OF
THE GFS AND ITS DERIVATIVES SEVERELY IMPACTING THE BLEND THIS
MORNING. THE LOCATION OF MAXIMUM SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY MORNING ARE A MEASURE LOWER CONFIDENCE. TRACK OF CLIPPER
WAVES WILL MAKE POTENTIAL THERMAL ERRORS QUITE LARGE...BUT NOT AS
LARGE AS IF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER WAS IN PLACE. HAVE
SHADED LONGER RANGE TEMPS DOWN A TOUCH ON FRIDAY...BUT MAINLY
DAYTIME AS POTENTIAL CLOUDS IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO INCLUDED MENTION IN THE
KSUX TAF. BASED ON OBS WILL KEEP KSUX MVFR...BUT IFR AND LIFR CIGS
ARE NOT TOO FAR AWAY AND COULD MOVE IN...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG FORM...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS PROBABLY BECOMING LESS LIKELY. AGAIN KFSD
WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS AND FOG...BUT BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS THEM STAYING VFR...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR. EXPECT ANY STRATUS TO CLEAR EARLY TO MID MORNING AS A
FRONT SWITCHES WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. COULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN AS THE FRONT CROSSES...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OF
SIGNIFICANCE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON EXPECTING GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 KTS TO BE COMMON AND LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO SHOULD SEE
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME...WITH HEIGHTS LIKELY HIGH END MVFR OR LOW END VFR. ALSO
SHOULD BE SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THAT AS WELL.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ038-050-052-053-057>059-063-064.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 230958
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
358 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY MILD AIR REMOVES ANY THOUGHT OF PRECIPITATION TYPE OTHER
THAN RAIN WITH FRONTAL/POSTFRONTAL BAND MOVING EAST THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. COOLING WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR ANY
OTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS BAND MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. TEMPORARY
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF LOWER CLOUDS SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING IN MOST AREAS WITH
SOME MARGINAL EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY WEST WHERE THE WARMEST
AIR DID NOT REACH.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WEST...AND WILL GO
WITH A WIND ADVISORY THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO QUITE REACH ADVISORY LEVELS EAST TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...AND WINDS WEST SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL BRING THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE OVER THE AREA.
SOME LOW BASED LIGHT SNOW WITH THESE CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL ON
AMOUNTS WITH NO REAL MID LEVEL SUPPORT OR MOISTURE...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO INCLUDE POPS FOR MINIMALLY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ENOUGH SNOW FOR BLOWING SNOW...
WHATEVER THE WINDS. WINDS MAY PICK UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT EAST AS A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR SPREADS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL
DROP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO...ON THE MINUS SIDE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AND ON THE PLUS SIDE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AS MAJOR CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO FAR AWAY TO TRULY HAVE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON THE AREA...BESIDES THE WIND. MID MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 32
TO 34 KNOTS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT AT LEAST THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL LET THIS AREA BE
FULLY DEFINED BY LATER SHIFTS...BUT WILL HAVE WINDS IN THE GRIDS
SUGGESTIVE OF THE NEED. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...FAIL TO SEE
MUCH TO THINK ANYTHING NEAR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED...AND FOR THE MOST PART WOULD PROBABLY BE BEST COVERED BY
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE DENDRITIC...AND SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE STREETS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW TAKE OVER. SOME AREAS
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN SD GLACIAL HILLS AND BUFFALO RIDGE WOULD
BE A BIT MORE FAVORED TO GET SOME MORE PERSISTENT LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AND PERHAPS A MORE COHERENT SHALLOW SNOWBAND DEVELOPED
WHICH WOULD STREAM SOUTHEAST. WITH THE WIND...WILL BE HARD PRESSED
TO FIND ANY LOCATION THAT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO MEASURE
SNOWFALL...SO FOR NOW THE STRATEGY WILL BE TO DOWNPLAY THE
SNOWFALL OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CWA IN LIEU OF FLURRIES.

NOTE INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG EASTWARD
ADVANCING THERMAL GRADIENT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE WAVE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
SMALL PULSE OF DIV Q AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF THE MOIST LAYER.
NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT COULD GET A FEW FLURRIES IN WARM AIR ADVECTIVE
ZONE DURING THE VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL EVEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURATION DEPTH...
AS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF LACK OF ICE FORMATION WHICH COULD
BRING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE EQUATION. OTHERWISE...A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO MODERATE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
AHEAD OF STRONGER CLIPPER WAVE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD BRING A
FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHWEST...WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE LIMITING POPS AT THIS TIME TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...REJECTED THE OUTLIER GFS...AND WENT WITH STRONG
CONSENSUS OF STRONG CLIPPER TRACKING NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS
USUALLY WILL RESULT IN A VERY DISTINCT NON DIURNAL THERMAL TREND
DURING THE NIGHT AS AREA SLIDES INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE FOR A WHILE. EASTERN AREAS AND THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA
COULD EASILY HAVE WARMEST READINGS OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SOMETHING MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME REALIZING. HAVE MADE
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THERMAL TRENDS...BUT KEPT IN MIND THAT
SOME MINOR IMPACT FROM PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION IN TRANSLATING
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF CLIPPER MAY MODERATE THESE TRENDS
A BIT. AT THIS POINT...HAVE MODEST CHANCE POPS AS THE BETTER AND
DEEPER FORCING OCCURS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT STILL ENOUGH
THETA E ADVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS TO SATURATE TO ALLOW SOME
PRECIPITATION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TYPE WITH SNEAKY WARMING ALOFT
SURGING EAST...AGAIN LIKELY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THAN MODELS
INDICATE. OVERALL...MISSOURI VALLEY WOULD LIKELY FEEL FULL IMPACT
OF ANY OVERNIGHT WARMING. BY LATER NIGHT...COLD SURGE WORKING
BEHIND CLIPPER WAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
CWA...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY.

COULD VERY WELL AGAIN BE IN NEED OF WIND HIGHLIGHT FOR A TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. OTHER THAN THE WIND...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY
BEHIND THE EXITING CLIPPER...WITH TEMPS LARGELY STAGNANT TO
FALLING. WHILE COLD AIR ADVANCES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MID LEVEL
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SLOW OR STALL ACROSS THE CWA HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WAVE ENHANCING
LIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. HAVE BOLSTERED PRECIPITATION THREAT
ALONG THIS THERMAL RIBBON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOCUSING MAINLY NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
LOCATION TO KEEP A MINIMAL POP IN THE NORTHEAST.

HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WILL HAVE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF PRECIPITATION THREAT...BUT
SETTING UP WHAT COULD BE COLDEST HIGHS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

IF ANYTHING...THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS LATE WEEK ARE
EVEN MORE SPREAD THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH VERY FEW IN
THE MIDDLE. VAST MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS FOLLOW LINES OF
ECMWF/CANADIAN WHICH DRIVE SOME VERY COLD LOW LEVEL AIR SOUTHWARD
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATING A BIT BY SATURDAY.
GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A QUITE MILD DAY SANDWICHED BETWEEN
THANKSGIVING AND SATURDAY. EACH MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE ITS OWN
PREFERRED LOCATIONS FOR BAROCLINICITY...AND REACTS BY VARIOUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE CHOSEN THE LESS TRAVELED ROAD BY KEEPING THINGS
DRY...BUT STRONGLY SHADING TOWARD COOLER...WITH CONTRIBUTION OF
THE GFS AND ITS DERIVATIVES SEVERELY IMPACTING THE BLEND THIS
MORNING. THE LOCATION OF MAXIMUM SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY MORNING ARE A MEASURE LOWER CONFIDENCE. TRACK OF CLIPPER
WAVES WILL MAKE POTENTIAL THERMAL ERRORS QUITE LARGE...BUT NOT AS
LARGE AS IF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER WAS IN PLACE. HAVE
SHADED LONGER RANGE TEMPS DOWN A TOUCH ON FRIDAY...BUT MAINLY
DAYTIME AS POTENTIAL CLOUDS IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO INCLUDED MENTION IN THE
KSUX TAF. BASED ON OBS WILL KEEP KSUX MVFR...BUT IFR AND LIFR CIGS
ARE NOT TOO FAR AWAY AND COULD MOVE IN...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG FORM...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS PROBABLY BECOMING LESS LIKELY. AGAIN KFSD
WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS AND FOG...BUT BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS THEM STAYING VFR...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR. EXPECT ANY STRATUS TO CLEAR EARLY TO MID MORNING AS A
FRONT SWITCHES WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. COULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN AS THE FRONT CROSSES...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OF
SIGNIFICANCE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON EXPECTING GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 KTS TO BE COMMON AND LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO SHOULD SEE
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME...WITH HEIGHTS LIKELY HIGH END MVFR OR LOW END VFR. ALSO
SHOULD BE SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THAT AS WELL.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ038-050-052-053-057>059-063-064.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KUNR 230927
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
227 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AT 08Z THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD ALMOST COMPLETELY
MOVED OUT OF THE EASTERN EXTREMITIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE
NE-SW BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE
MAIN UPPER VORTICITY LOBE.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT THIS
BEING MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP AT THIS TIME.  IR SATLT IMAGERY SEEMS TO
INDICATE THERE IS PROBABLY SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING WHICH ISN`T SHOWING UP
ON RADAR IMAGERY BECAUSE THE TOPS ARE TOO LOW.

TODAY...THIS INSTABILITY PRECIP RESULTING FROM COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND FILL IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PRECIP BY MID MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLKHLS. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE
THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED BEWEEN 18Z AND 21Z OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN A FAIRLY CONSTANT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK MID OR UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES CROSSING THE REGION. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND.  MONDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHNG
THE LOW TO MID 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE
THROUGH...BRINGING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME SETTLING ON THE FORECAST FROM THANKSGIVING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS HAS GONE BACK TO A WARMER SOLUTION WHILE THE
ECM IS MUCH COLDER. THE ECM IS ALSO SHOWING SNOW LINGERING THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WRN 2/3 OF
THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WILL NOT ADD ANYMORE POPS PAST 00Z
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NW/WCNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. SHSN/MVFR CIGS ARE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS NW SD...THE BLKHLS...AND PORTIONS OF NE WY. LOCALIZED
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHSN OVER THE NRN BLKHLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST
     /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-025-027-032-041-043-044-
     046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 230927
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
227 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AT 08Z THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD ALMOST COMPLETELY
MOVED OUT OF THE EASTERN EXTREMITIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE
NE-SW BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE
MAIN UPPER VORTICITY LOBE.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT THIS
BEING MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP AT THIS TIME.  IR SATLT IMAGERY SEEMS TO
INDICATE THERE IS PROBABLY SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING WHICH ISN`T SHOWING UP
ON RADAR IMAGERY BECAUSE THE TOPS ARE TOO LOW.

TODAY...THIS INSTABILITY PRECIP RESULTING FROM COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND FILL IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PRECIP BY MID MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLKHLS. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE
THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED BEWEEN 18Z AND 21Z OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN A FAIRLY CONSTANT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK MID OR UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES CROSSING THE REGION. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND.  MONDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHNG
THE LOW TO MID 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE
THROUGH...BRINGING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME SETTLING ON THE FORECAST FROM THANKSGIVING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS HAS GONE BACK TO A WARMER SOLUTION WHILE THE
ECM IS MUCH COLDER. THE ECM IS ALSO SHOWING SNOW LINGERING THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WRN 2/3 OF
THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WILL NOT ADD ANYMORE POPS PAST 00Z
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NW/WCNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. SHSN/MVFR CIGS ARE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS NW SD...THE BLKHLS...AND PORTIONS OF NE WY. LOCALIZED
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHSN OVER THE NRN BLKHLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST
     /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-025-027-032-041-043-044-
     046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 230927
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
227 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AT 08Z THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD ALMOST COMPLETELY
MOVED OUT OF THE EASTERN EXTREMITIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE
NE-SW BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE
MAIN UPPER VORTICITY LOBE.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT THIS
BEING MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP AT THIS TIME.  IR SATLT IMAGERY SEEMS TO
INDICATE THERE IS PROBABLY SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING WHICH ISN`T SHOWING UP
ON RADAR IMAGERY BECAUSE THE TOPS ARE TOO LOW.

TODAY...THIS INSTABILITY PRECIP RESULTING FROM COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND FILL IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PRECIP BY MID MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLKHLS. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE
THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED BEWEEN 18Z AND 21Z OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN A FAIRLY CONSTANT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK MID OR UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES CROSSING THE REGION. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND.  MONDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHNG
THE LOW TO MID 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE
THROUGH...BRINGING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME SETTLING ON THE FORECAST FROM THANKSGIVING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS HAS GONE BACK TO A WARMER SOLUTION WHILE THE
ECM IS MUCH COLDER. THE ECM IS ALSO SHOWING SNOW LINGERING THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WRN 2/3 OF
THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WILL NOT ADD ANYMORE POPS PAST 00Z
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NW/WCNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. SHSN/MVFR CIGS ARE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS NW SD...THE BLKHLS...AND PORTIONS OF NE WY. LOCALIZED
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHSN OVER THE NRN BLKHLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST
     /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-025-027-032-041-043-044-
     046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 230927
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
227 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AT 08Z THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD ALMOST COMPLETELY
MOVED OUT OF THE EASTERN EXTREMITIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE
NE-SW BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE
MAIN UPPER VORTICITY LOBE.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT THIS
BEING MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP AT THIS TIME.  IR SATLT IMAGERY SEEMS TO
INDICATE THERE IS PROBABLY SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING WHICH ISN`T SHOWING UP
ON RADAR IMAGERY BECAUSE THE TOPS ARE TOO LOW.

TODAY...THIS INSTABILITY PRECIP RESULTING FROM COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND FILL IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PRECIP BY MID MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLKHLS. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE
THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED BEWEEN 18Z AND 21Z OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN A FAIRLY CONSTANT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK MID OR UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES CROSSING THE REGION. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND.  MONDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHNG
THE LOW TO MID 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE
THROUGH...BRINGING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME SETTLING ON THE FORECAST FROM THANKSGIVING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS HAS GONE BACK TO A WARMER SOLUTION WHILE THE
ECM IS MUCH COLDER. THE ECM IS ALSO SHOWING SNOW LINGERING THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WRN 2/3 OF
THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WILL NOT ADD ANYMORE POPS PAST 00Z
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NW/WCNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. SHSN/MVFR CIGS ARE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS NW SD...THE BLKHLS...AND PORTIONS OF NE WY. LOCALIZED
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHSN OVER THE NRN BLKHLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST
     /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-025-027-032-041-043-044-
     046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KABR 230556 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1156 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

MADE A COUPLE CHANGES TO P-TYPE FORECAST TONIGHT BASED OFF
OBSERVATIONS AND 18Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT. SWITCHED P-TYPE
TO RAIN-ONLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WAA AND SURFACE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ONGOING BENEATH BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 32F OVERNIGHT. SNOW/FREEZING RAIN SEEMS
LIKE A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY OCCURRENCE TONIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED
COVERAGE/TIMING OF FOG MENTION OVER THE EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE TROF...WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS HAVE
FALLEN TO 3 DEGREES OR LESS.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD. FORECASTING
LOWS TRICKY THIS EVENING AS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND MIXING WILL
GREATLY AFFECT READINGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON TEMPS IT WILL
BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. GENERALLY WENT WITH 20/30 POPS TONIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY AND THE RATHER GUSTY WINDS THAT
WILL DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY
REGION BASED ON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL ALSO LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR MED/LONG TERM FCST REVOLVES AROUND PCPN
TIMING...LOCATION AND MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 500HPA TROF LOCATED ALONG THE
ERN DAKOTAS AT 00Z MONDAY. SFC LOW LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF
CWA...BUT WRAPAROUND ON BACKSIDE...COUPLED WITH TIGHTENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT...COULD MAKE FOR SOME TOUGH CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR NE
PART OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

SYSTEM PULLS AWAY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH DIMISHING WINDS AND
SNOWFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

BIGGEST QUESTION IS GOING TO BE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ON SAGGING COLD FRONT...WHILE THE EC SPINS
UP A FAIRLY POTENT SFC LOW DIVING SE. THE NAM AT 84 HOURS OFFERS
UP A SOLN THAT IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW. THIS KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN IN NORTH DAKOTA THAN
IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED AS EC SOLN
WOULD CREATE SOME ISSUES...AGAIN IN THAT FAR NERN CWA
REGION...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND STRONG NW WINDS.

LASTLY...FOR THANKSGIVING...THE GFS KEEPS CANADIAN HIGH BOTTLED UP
IN SRN CANADA...WHICH ALLOWS SFC LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG STALLED COLD
FRONT DRAPED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE EC PUSHES THIS HIGH
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. DIFFERENCE IS GFS SOLN SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MEASUREABLE SNOW THURSDAY...WHILE EC NOT SO MUCH. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SUPERBLEND SOLN.

TEMP WISE...LOOK FOR SUBSEASONAL TEMPS TO AGAIN PUSH INTO THE
REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH LITTLE IF ANY RECOVERY
NOTED.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE KMBG/KPIR TERMINALS MAINLY BETWEEN
NOW AND 12Z SUNDAY...WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES MOVING IN TO THE
KABR/KATY TERMINALS MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. WILL UPDATE THE
KABR/KATY TAFS TO ADD RAIN MENTION AS NEEDED. BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE KMBG/KPIR TERMINALS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/
     SUNDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-
     STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 230556 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1156 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

MADE A COUPLE CHANGES TO P-TYPE FORECAST TONIGHT BASED OFF
OBSERVATIONS AND 18Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT. SWITCHED P-TYPE
TO RAIN-ONLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WAA AND SURFACE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ONGOING BENEATH BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 32F OVERNIGHT. SNOW/FREEZING RAIN SEEMS
LIKE A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY OCCURRENCE TONIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED
COVERAGE/TIMING OF FOG MENTION OVER THE EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE TROF...WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS HAVE
FALLEN TO 3 DEGREES OR LESS.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD. FORECASTING
LOWS TRICKY THIS EVENING AS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND MIXING WILL
GREATLY AFFECT READINGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON TEMPS IT WILL
BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. GENERALLY WENT WITH 20/30 POPS TONIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY AND THE RATHER GUSTY WINDS THAT
WILL DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY
REGION BASED ON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL ALSO LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR MED/LONG TERM FCST REVOLVES AROUND PCPN
TIMING...LOCATION AND MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 500HPA TROF LOCATED ALONG THE
ERN DAKOTAS AT 00Z MONDAY. SFC LOW LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF
CWA...BUT WRAPAROUND ON BACKSIDE...COUPLED WITH TIGHTENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT...COULD MAKE FOR SOME TOUGH CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR NE
PART OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

SYSTEM PULLS AWAY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH DIMISHING WINDS AND
SNOWFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

BIGGEST QUESTION IS GOING TO BE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ON SAGGING COLD FRONT...WHILE THE EC SPINS
UP A FAIRLY POTENT SFC LOW DIVING SE. THE NAM AT 84 HOURS OFFERS
UP A SOLN THAT IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW. THIS KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN IN NORTH DAKOTA THAN
IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED AS EC SOLN
WOULD CREATE SOME ISSUES...AGAIN IN THAT FAR NERN CWA
REGION...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND STRONG NW WINDS.

LASTLY...FOR THANKSGIVING...THE GFS KEEPS CANADIAN HIGH BOTTLED UP
IN SRN CANADA...WHICH ALLOWS SFC LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG STALLED COLD
FRONT DRAPED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE EC PUSHES THIS HIGH
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. DIFFERENCE IS GFS SOLN SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MEASUREABLE SNOW THURSDAY...WHILE EC NOT SO MUCH. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SUPERBLEND SOLN.

TEMP WISE...LOOK FOR SUBSEASONAL TEMPS TO AGAIN PUSH INTO THE
REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH LITTLE IF ANY RECOVERY
NOTED.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE KMBG/KPIR TERMINALS MAINLY BETWEEN
NOW AND 12Z SUNDAY...WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES MOVING IN TO THE
KABR/KATY TERMINALS MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. WILL UPDATE THE
KABR/KATY TAFS TO ADD RAIN MENTION AS NEEDED. BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE KMBG/KPIR TERMINALS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/
     SUNDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-
     STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 230556 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1156 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

MADE A COUPLE CHANGES TO P-TYPE FORECAST TONIGHT BASED OFF
OBSERVATIONS AND 18Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT. SWITCHED P-TYPE
TO RAIN-ONLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WAA AND SURFACE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ONGOING BENEATH BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 32F OVERNIGHT. SNOW/FREEZING RAIN SEEMS
LIKE A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY OCCURRENCE TONIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED
COVERAGE/TIMING OF FOG MENTION OVER THE EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE TROF...WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS HAVE
FALLEN TO 3 DEGREES OR LESS.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD. FORECASTING
LOWS TRICKY THIS EVENING AS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND MIXING WILL
GREATLY AFFECT READINGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON TEMPS IT WILL
BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. GENERALLY WENT WITH 20/30 POPS TONIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY AND THE RATHER GUSTY WINDS THAT
WILL DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY
REGION BASED ON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL ALSO LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR MED/LONG TERM FCST REVOLVES AROUND PCPN
TIMING...LOCATION AND MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 500HPA TROF LOCATED ALONG THE
ERN DAKOTAS AT 00Z MONDAY. SFC LOW LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF
CWA...BUT WRAPAROUND ON BACKSIDE...COUPLED WITH TIGHTENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT...COULD MAKE FOR SOME TOUGH CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR NE
PART OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

SYSTEM PULLS AWAY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH DIMISHING WINDS AND
SNOWFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

BIGGEST QUESTION IS GOING TO BE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ON SAGGING COLD FRONT...WHILE THE EC SPINS
UP A FAIRLY POTENT SFC LOW DIVING SE. THE NAM AT 84 HOURS OFFERS
UP A SOLN THAT IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW. THIS KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN IN NORTH DAKOTA THAN
IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED AS EC SOLN
WOULD CREATE SOME ISSUES...AGAIN IN THAT FAR NERN CWA
REGION...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND STRONG NW WINDS.

LASTLY...FOR THANKSGIVING...THE GFS KEEPS CANADIAN HIGH BOTTLED UP
IN SRN CANADA...WHICH ALLOWS SFC LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG STALLED COLD
FRONT DRAPED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE EC PUSHES THIS HIGH
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. DIFFERENCE IS GFS SOLN SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MEASUREABLE SNOW THURSDAY...WHILE EC NOT SO MUCH. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SUPERBLEND SOLN.

TEMP WISE...LOOK FOR SUBSEASONAL TEMPS TO AGAIN PUSH INTO THE
REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH LITTLE IF ANY RECOVERY
NOTED.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE KMBG/KPIR TERMINALS MAINLY BETWEEN
NOW AND 12Z SUNDAY...WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES MOVING IN TO THE
KABR/KATY TERMINALS MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. WILL UPDATE THE
KABR/KATY TAFS TO ADD RAIN MENTION AS NEEDED. BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE KMBG/KPIR TERMINALS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/
     SUNDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-
     STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 230556 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1156 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

MADE A COUPLE CHANGES TO P-TYPE FORECAST TONIGHT BASED OFF
OBSERVATIONS AND 18Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT. SWITCHED P-TYPE
TO RAIN-ONLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WAA AND SURFACE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ONGOING BENEATH BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 32F OVERNIGHT. SNOW/FREEZING RAIN SEEMS
LIKE A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY OCCURRENCE TONIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED
COVERAGE/TIMING OF FOG MENTION OVER THE EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE TROF...WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS HAVE
FALLEN TO 3 DEGREES OR LESS.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD. FORECASTING
LOWS TRICKY THIS EVENING AS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND MIXING WILL
GREATLY AFFECT READINGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON TEMPS IT WILL
BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. GENERALLY WENT WITH 20/30 POPS TONIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY AND THE RATHER GUSTY WINDS THAT
WILL DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY
REGION BASED ON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL ALSO LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR MED/LONG TERM FCST REVOLVES AROUND PCPN
TIMING...LOCATION AND MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 500HPA TROF LOCATED ALONG THE
ERN DAKOTAS AT 00Z MONDAY. SFC LOW LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF
CWA...BUT WRAPAROUND ON BACKSIDE...COUPLED WITH TIGHTENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT...COULD MAKE FOR SOME TOUGH CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR NE
PART OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

SYSTEM PULLS AWAY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH DIMISHING WINDS AND
SNOWFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

BIGGEST QUESTION IS GOING TO BE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ON SAGGING COLD FRONT...WHILE THE EC SPINS
UP A FAIRLY POTENT SFC LOW DIVING SE. THE NAM AT 84 HOURS OFFERS
UP A SOLN THAT IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW. THIS KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN IN NORTH DAKOTA THAN
IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED AS EC SOLN
WOULD CREATE SOME ISSUES...AGAIN IN THAT FAR NERN CWA
REGION...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND STRONG NW WINDS.

LASTLY...FOR THANKSGIVING...THE GFS KEEPS CANADIAN HIGH BOTTLED UP
IN SRN CANADA...WHICH ALLOWS SFC LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG STALLED COLD
FRONT DRAPED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE EC PUSHES THIS HIGH
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. DIFFERENCE IS GFS SOLN SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MEASUREABLE SNOW THURSDAY...WHILE EC NOT SO MUCH. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SUPERBLEND SOLN.

TEMP WISE...LOOK FOR SUBSEASONAL TEMPS TO AGAIN PUSH INTO THE
REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH LITTLE IF ANY RECOVERY
NOTED.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE KMBG/KPIR TERMINALS MAINLY BETWEEN
NOW AND 12Z SUNDAY...WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES MOVING IN TO THE
KABR/KATY TERMINALS MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. WILL UPDATE THE
KABR/KATY TAFS TO ADD RAIN MENTION AS NEEDED. BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE KMBG/KPIR TERMINALS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/
     SUNDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-
     STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KUNR 230526
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1026 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW NEAR CYQR WITH COLD FRONT TO KRAP TO
SOUTH CENTRAL WY. COUPLE OF HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT AS WELL AS SOME -SHRASN. 00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWS LIFT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST MT BEING WASTED ON SATURATION
EARLIER THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR/OBSERVATIONS DO SUGGEST LOWER
TROPOSPHERE MOISTENING ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE
GROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST SD SO HAVE RAISED POPS THERE.

00Z GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS VERY WINDY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATES HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS FROM K2WX TO KRAP DURING PEAK MIXING LATER SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONTRAST TO LESSER MOS
GUIDANCE WINDS. 40-50KT 850MB WINDS NOTED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES HIGHER UP. STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED BEHIND TONIGHT/S
SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING.
WILL CONVERT WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPAND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS A BIT
WITH UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

DEEPENING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...WITH
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS. THERMAL RIDGE HAS SUPPORTED
A MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA...ESP WHERE ENHANCED LOCAL MIXING HAS
OCCURRED. HOWEVER...INCREASING LSA WITH A LL COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK FGEN BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL THEN SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL SUSTAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE WESTERN FA
LATE SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SPLITTING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A WEAK HIGH
CENTERED FGEN RESPONSE OVER THE REGION WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING UVM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...ESP NE WY WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ACCENT WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN THIS EVENING...QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT GIVEN
COOLING THERMAL FIELDS. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE INCH. LL FLOW WILL VEER NW TONIGHT AND INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
INITIAL CAA PUSH AND PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF NEAR ADV
WINDS AROUND KRAP AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN TAME UNTIL LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...SECONDARY CAA PUSH AND INCREASING LL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MEAN BL FLOW PROGS SUPPORT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS ESP ACROSS FAR NW SD. BUFR PROGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS OF 50 KNOTS TO MIX DOWN...ESP WITH THE SECONDARY
PRESSURE RISE SURGE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NW. IN
ADDITION...COLD POCKET ALOFT COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH LOCAL ENHANCED
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWER.
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADV FOR MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS...RETAINING A HIGH WIND WATCH ACROSS THE FAR NW WHERE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF 50 KNOT FLOW WILL
RESIDE. MEAN MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUPPORTED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WOULD LIKE TO HAVE ANOTHER FORECAST RUN OR TWO
TO SEE IF THIS TREND SUSTAINS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS ALONG THE PLAINS OF THE EASTERN BLACK
HILLS...INCLUDING RAPID CITY...WITH NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW POTENTIAL/SHORT DURATION/AND LOCALIZED
NATURE...FEEL A WIND ADV IS MORE PRUDENT. THE OTHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
BE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS TO
CHEYENNE CROSSING. INCREASING FROUDE/MOISTURE/AND FLOW WITH COOLING
THERMAL FIELDS IN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A DECENT PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE FORCING...EXTENDING INTO THE DGZ. 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. SNOW WILL WIND
DOWN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE BL DRIES. HOWEVER...AS SECONDARY IMPULSE
WILL LEAD TO RENEWED CHANCES FOR SNOW...MAINLY NE WY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH...BRINGING
A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
CANADIAN HAVE ALL FLIPPED BACK TO A COLDER REGIME FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...BUT UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO TEMPS. IT DOES CONTINUE TO LOOK MAINLY
DRY DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEHIND IT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST SD PLAINS. LOCAL MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL LOCAL MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR SUNDAY WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ014-025-027-032-041-043-044-046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012-013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 230526
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1026 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW NEAR CYQR WITH COLD FRONT TO KRAP TO
SOUTH CENTRAL WY. COUPLE OF HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT AS WELL AS SOME -SHRASN. 00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWS LIFT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST MT BEING WASTED ON SATURATION
EARLIER THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR/OBSERVATIONS DO SUGGEST LOWER
TROPOSPHERE MOISTENING ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE
GROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST SD SO HAVE RAISED POPS THERE.

00Z GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS VERY WINDY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATES HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS FROM K2WX TO KRAP DURING PEAK MIXING LATER SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONTRAST TO LESSER MOS
GUIDANCE WINDS. 40-50KT 850MB WINDS NOTED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES HIGHER UP. STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED BEHIND TONIGHT/S
SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING.
WILL CONVERT WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPAND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS A BIT
WITH UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

DEEPENING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...WITH
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS. THERMAL RIDGE HAS SUPPORTED
A MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA...ESP WHERE ENHANCED LOCAL MIXING HAS
OCCURRED. HOWEVER...INCREASING LSA WITH A LL COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK FGEN BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL THEN SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL SUSTAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE WESTERN FA
LATE SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SPLITTING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A WEAK HIGH
CENTERED FGEN RESPONSE OVER THE REGION WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING UVM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...ESP NE WY WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ACCENT WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN THIS EVENING...QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT GIVEN
COOLING THERMAL FIELDS. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE INCH. LL FLOW WILL VEER NW TONIGHT AND INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
INITIAL CAA PUSH AND PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF NEAR ADV
WINDS AROUND KRAP AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN TAME UNTIL LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...SECONDARY CAA PUSH AND INCREASING LL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MEAN BL FLOW PROGS SUPPORT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS ESP ACROSS FAR NW SD. BUFR PROGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS OF 50 KNOTS TO MIX DOWN...ESP WITH THE SECONDARY
PRESSURE RISE SURGE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NW. IN
ADDITION...COLD POCKET ALOFT COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH LOCAL ENHANCED
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWER.
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADV FOR MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS...RETAINING A HIGH WIND WATCH ACROSS THE FAR NW WHERE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF 50 KNOT FLOW WILL
RESIDE. MEAN MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUPPORTED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WOULD LIKE TO HAVE ANOTHER FORECAST RUN OR TWO
TO SEE IF THIS TREND SUSTAINS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS ALONG THE PLAINS OF THE EASTERN BLACK
HILLS...INCLUDING RAPID CITY...WITH NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW POTENTIAL/SHORT DURATION/AND LOCALIZED
NATURE...FEEL A WIND ADV IS MORE PRUDENT. THE OTHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
BE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS TO
CHEYENNE CROSSING. INCREASING FROUDE/MOISTURE/AND FLOW WITH COOLING
THERMAL FIELDS IN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A DECENT PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE FORCING...EXTENDING INTO THE DGZ. 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. SNOW WILL WIND
DOWN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE BL DRIES. HOWEVER...AS SECONDARY IMPULSE
WILL LEAD TO RENEWED CHANCES FOR SNOW...MAINLY NE WY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH...BRINGING
A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
CANADIAN HAVE ALL FLIPPED BACK TO A COLDER REGIME FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...BUT UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO TEMPS. IT DOES CONTINUE TO LOOK MAINLY
DRY DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEHIND IT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST SD PLAINS. LOCAL MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL LOCAL MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR SUNDAY WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ014-025-027-032-041-043-044-046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012-013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KFSD 230457
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1057 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HRRR AND
RAP SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...KEEPING MOST OF THE
STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. SIGNAL FOR DENSE FOG IN
THE MODELS IS LESS THAN LAST NIGHT AND CURRENTLY NOT SEEING MUCH
OUT THERE. WILL KEEP FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SEEMS TO BE DECREASING...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OTHERWISE WATCHING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT WILL TRY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH A PRETTY
GOOD AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WORK FROM WEST TO EAST INTO EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. DID GO AHEAD AND CHANGE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO ALL RAIN
THOUGH. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLAIN RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION
TYPE. SREF PROBABILITIES ALSO BACK THIS UP...SO FELT COMFORTABLE
REMOVING MENTION OF SNOW. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES
MIXED IN...BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN IF ANYTHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS LOW CLOUDS AND
STRATUS STRUGGLING TO ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WHERE THE STRATUS HAS ERODED...TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED
NICELY IN THE 40S AND 50S...BUT ACROSS THE EAST UNDER THE BLANKET OF
LOW CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY IN THE 30S.  EXPECT
THE EAST TO FILL BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...AND MAY
HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM VERMILLION TO MARSHALL AND EAST. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
IMPROVE AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST
DRYING OUT THE LOW LEVELS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...COULD
HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS COINCIDING WITH WEAK DIV Q ALOFT. PRECIP TYPE COULD
BE A REAL CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE NEAR FREEZING. TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE...FOR NOW...KEPT PRECIP TYPES CONFINED TO RAIN OR SNOW...BUT
COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH WARM DRY LAYER IN THE
LOWEST 2000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN
AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGH TEMPERATURES A TOUGH CALL ON SUNDAY...WITH
925 HPA TEMPS COOLING FROM NEAR 10C DOWN CLOSER TO 5C BY 0Z
MONDAY. FURTHER BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...925 HPA TEMPS HOVER IN THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS LEADING TO A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH. COLDER AIR BEGINS RUSHING BACK INTO THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING IN THE
EVENING AND REACHING THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MERGES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR EAST...SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS TO OUR EAST AND WITHOUT A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE...ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
COULD SEE AROUND A HALF INCH TO INCH IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
OTHERWISE A FEW TENTHS OR TRACE AT BEST. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND A BIT...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW MENTION. ANY EXISTING SNOW
PACK SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CRUST TO NOT CAUSE ANY BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES EITHER.

WITH THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY A COLD
AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS TRACK A CLIPPER WAVE ALONG THE
UPPER FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS FAST
MOVING WAVE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS...FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF THEN THE NAM. BUT IT
SEEMS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

UNCERTAINTY FURTHER INCREASES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND POTENTIALLY
BECOMES THE FOCUS MECHANISM OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS INTO CENTRAL SD AND THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH WHERE THIS WILL SET UP...BUT
WILL LEAVE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL MENTION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS WAVER WITH BRINGING FURTHER WAVES ALONG THE FLOW...BUT NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING. THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO INCLUDED MENTION IN THE
KSUX TAF. BASED ON OBS WILL KEEP KSUX MVFR...BUT IFR AND LIFR CIGS
ARE NOT TOO FAR AWAY AND COULD MOVE IN...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG FORM...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS PROBABLY BECOMING LESS LIKELY. AGAIN KFSD
WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS AND FOG...BUT BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS THEM STAYING VFR...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR. EXPECT ANY STRATUS TO CLEAR EARLY TO MID MORNING AS A
FRONT SWITCHES WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. COULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN AS THE FRONT CROSSES...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OF
SIGNIFICANCE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON EXPECTING GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 KTS TO BE COMMON AND LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO SHOULD SEE
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME...WITH HEIGHTS LIKELY HIGH END MVFR OR LOW END VFR. ALSO
SHOULD BE SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THAT AS WELL.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 230457
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1057 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HRRR AND
RAP SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...KEEPING MOST OF THE
STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. SIGNAL FOR DENSE FOG IN
THE MODELS IS LESS THAN LAST NIGHT AND CURRENTLY NOT SEEING MUCH
OUT THERE. WILL KEEP FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SEEMS TO BE DECREASING...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OTHERWISE WATCHING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT WILL TRY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH A PRETTY
GOOD AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WORK FROM WEST TO EAST INTO EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. DID GO AHEAD AND CHANGE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO ALL RAIN
THOUGH. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLAIN RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION
TYPE. SREF PROBABILITIES ALSO BACK THIS UP...SO FELT COMFORTABLE
REMOVING MENTION OF SNOW. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES
MIXED IN...BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN IF ANYTHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS LOW CLOUDS AND
STRATUS STRUGGLING TO ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WHERE THE STRATUS HAS ERODED...TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED
NICELY IN THE 40S AND 50S...BUT ACROSS THE EAST UNDER THE BLANKET OF
LOW CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY IN THE 30S.  EXPECT
THE EAST TO FILL BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...AND MAY
HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM VERMILLION TO MARSHALL AND EAST. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
IMPROVE AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST
DRYING OUT THE LOW LEVELS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...COULD
HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS COINCIDING WITH WEAK DIV Q ALOFT. PRECIP TYPE COULD
BE A REAL CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE NEAR FREEZING. TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE...FOR NOW...KEPT PRECIP TYPES CONFINED TO RAIN OR SNOW...BUT
COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH WARM DRY LAYER IN THE
LOWEST 2000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN
AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGH TEMPERATURES A TOUGH CALL ON SUNDAY...WITH
925 HPA TEMPS COOLING FROM NEAR 10C DOWN CLOSER TO 5C BY 0Z
MONDAY. FURTHER BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...925 HPA TEMPS HOVER IN THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS LEADING TO A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH. COLDER AIR BEGINS RUSHING BACK INTO THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING IN THE
EVENING AND REACHING THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MERGES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR EAST...SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS TO OUR EAST AND WITHOUT A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE...ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
COULD SEE AROUND A HALF INCH TO INCH IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
OTHERWISE A FEW TENTHS OR TRACE AT BEST. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND A BIT...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW MENTION. ANY EXISTING SNOW
PACK SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CRUST TO NOT CAUSE ANY BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES EITHER.

WITH THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY A COLD
AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS TRACK A CLIPPER WAVE ALONG THE
UPPER FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS FAST
MOVING WAVE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS...FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF THEN THE NAM. BUT IT
SEEMS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

UNCERTAINTY FURTHER INCREASES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND POTENTIALLY
BECOMES THE FOCUS MECHANISM OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS INTO CENTRAL SD AND THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH WHERE THIS WILL SET UP...BUT
WILL LEAVE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL MENTION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS WAVER WITH BRINGING FURTHER WAVES ALONG THE FLOW...BUT NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING. THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO INCLUDED MENTION IN THE
KSUX TAF. BASED ON OBS WILL KEEP KSUX MVFR...BUT IFR AND LIFR CIGS
ARE NOT TOO FAR AWAY AND COULD MOVE IN...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG FORM...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS PROBABLY BECOMING LESS LIKELY. AGAIN KFSD
WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS AND FOG...BUT BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS THEM STAYING VFR...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR. EXPECT ANY STRATUS TO CLEAR EARLY TO MID MORNING AS A
FRONT SWITCHES WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. COULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN AS THE FRONT CROSSES...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OF
SIGNIFICANCE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON EXPECTING GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 KTS TO BE COMMON AND LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO SHOULD SEE
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME...WITH HEIGHTS LIKELY HIGH END MVFR OR LOW END VFR. ALSO
SHOULD BE SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THAT AS WELL.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 230457
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1057 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HRRR AND
RAP SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...KEEPING MOST OF THE
STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. SIGNAL FOR DENSE FOG IN
THE MODELS IS LESS THAN LAST NIGHT AND CURRENTLY NOT SEEING MUCH
OUT THERE. WILL KEEP FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SEEMS TO BE DECREASING...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OTHERWISE WATCHING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT WILL TRY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH A PRETTY
GOOD AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WORK FROM WEST TO EAST INTO EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. DID GO AHEAD AND CHANGE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO ALL RAIN
THOUGH. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLAIN RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION
TYPE. SREF PROBABILITIES ALSO BACK THIS UP...SO FELT COMFORTABLE
REMOVING MENTION OF SNOW. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES
MIXED IN...BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN IF ANYTHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS LOW CLOUDS AND
STRATUS STRUGGLING TO ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WHERE THE STRATUS HAS ERODED...TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED
NICELY IN THE 40S AND 50S...BUT ACROSS THE EAST UNDER THE BLANKET OF
LOW CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY IN THE 30S.  EXPECT
THE EAST TO FILL BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...AND MAY
HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM VERMILLION TO MARSHALL AND EAST. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
IMPROVE AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST
DRYING OUT THE LOW LEVELS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...COULD
HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS COINCIDING WITH WEAK DIV Q ALOFT. PRECIP TYPE COULD
BE A REAL CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE NEAR FREEZING. TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE...FOR NOW...KEPT PRECIP TYPES CONFINED TO RAIN OR SNOW...BUT
COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH WARM DRY LAYER IN THE
LOWEST 2000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN
AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGH TEMPERATURES A TOUGH CALL ON SUNDAY...WITH
925 HPA TEMPS COOLING FROM NEAR 10C DOWN CLOSER TO 5C BY 0Z
MONDAY. FURTHER BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...925 HPA TEMPS HOVER IN THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS LEADING TO A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH. COLDER AIR BEGINS RUSHING BACK INTO THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING IN THE
EVENING AND REACHING THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MERGES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR EAST...SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS TO OUR EAST AND WITHOUT A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE...ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
COULD SEE AROUND A HALF INCH TO INCH IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
OTHERWISE A FEW TENTHS OR TRACE AT BEST. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND A BIT...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW MENTION. ANY EXISTING SNOW
PACK SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CRUST TO NOT CAUSE ANY BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES EITHER.

WITH THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY A COLD
AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS TRACK A CLIPPER WAVE ALONG THE
UPPER FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS FAST
MOVING WAVE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS...FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF THEN THE NAM. BUT IT
SEEMS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

UNCERTAINTY FURTHER INCREASES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND POTENTIALLY
BECOMES THE FOCUS MECHANISM OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS INTO CENTRAL SD AND THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH WHERE THIS WILL SET UP...BUT
WILL LEAVE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL MENTION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS WAVER WITH BRINGING FURTHER WAVES ALONG THE FLOW...BUT NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING. THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO INCLUDED MENTION IN THE
KSUX TAF. BASED ON OBS WILL KEEP KSUX MVFR...BUT IFR AND LIFR CIGS
ARE NOT TOO FAR AWAY AND COULD MOVE IN...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG FORM...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS PROBABLY BECOMING LESS LIKELY. AGAIN KFSD
WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS AND FOG...BUT BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS THEM STAYING VFR...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR. EXPECT ANY STRATUS TO CLEAR EARLY TO MID MORNING AS A
FRONT SWITCHES WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. COULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN AS THE FRONT CROSSES...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OF
SIGNIFICANCE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON EXPECTING GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 KTS TO BE COMMON AND LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO SHOULD SEE
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME...WITH HEIGHTS LIKELY HIGH END MVFR OR LOW END VFR. ALSO
SHOULD BE SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THAT AS WELL.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 230457
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1057 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HRRR AND
RAP SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...KEEPING MOST OF THE
STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. SIGNAL FOR DENSE FOG IN
THE MODELS IS LESS THAN LAST NIGHT AND CURRENTLY NOT SEEING MUCH
OUT THERE. WILL KEEP FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SEEMS TO BE DECREASING...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OTHERWISE WATCHING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT WILL TRY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH A PRETTY
GOOD AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WORK FROM WEST TO EAST INTO EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. DID GO AHEAD AND CHANGE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO ALL RAIN
THOUGH. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLAIN RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION
TYPE. SREF PROBABILITIES ALSO BACK THIS UP...SO FELT COMFORTABLE
REMOVING MENTION OF SNOW. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES
MIXED IN...BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN IF ANYTHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS LOW CLOUDS AND
STRATUS STRUGGLING TO ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WHERE THE STRATUS HAS ERODED...TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED
NICELY IN THE 40S AND 50S...BUT ACROSS THE EAST UNDER THE BLANKET OF
LOW CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY IN THE 30S.  EXPECT
THE EAST TO FILL BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...AND MAY
HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM VERMILLION TO MARSHALL AND EAST. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
IMPROVE AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST
DRYING OUT THE LOW LEVELS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...COULD
HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS COINCIDING WITH WEAK DIV Q ALOFT. PRECIP TYPE COULD
BE A REAL CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE NEAR FREEZING. TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE...FOR NOW...KEPT PRECIP TYPES CONFINED TO RAIN OR SNOW...BUT
COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH WARM DRY LAYER IN THE
LOWEST 2000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN
AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGH TEMPERATURES A TOUGH CALL ON SUNDAY...WITH
925 HPA TEMPS COOLING FROM NEAR 10C DOWN CLOSER TO 5C BY 0Z
MONDAY. FURTHER BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...925 HPA TEMPS HOVER IN THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS LEADING TO A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH. COLDER AIR BEGINS RUSHING BACK INTO THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING IN THE
EVENING AND REACHING THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MERGES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR EAST...SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS TO OUR EAST AND WITHOUT A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE...ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
COULD SEE AROUND A HALF INCH TO INCH IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
OTHERWISE A FEW TENTHS OR TRACE AT BEST. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND A BIT...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW MENTION. ANY EXISTING SNOW
PACK SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CRUST TO NOT CAUSE ANY BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES EITHER.

WITH THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY A COLD
AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS TRACK A CLIPPER WAVE ALONG THE
UPPER FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS FAST
MOVING WAVE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS...FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF THEN THE NAM. BUT IT
SEEMS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

UNCERTAINTY FURTHER INCREASES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND POTENTIALLY
BECOMES THE FOCUS MECHANISM OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS INTO CENTRAL SD AND THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH WHERE THIS WILL SET UP...BUT
WILL LEAVE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL MENTION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS WAVER WITH BRINGING FURTHER WAVES ALONG THE FLOW...BUT NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING. THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO INCLUDED MENTION IN THE
KSUX TAF. BASED ON OBS WILL KEEP KSUX MVFR...BUT IFR AND LIFR CIGS
ARE NOT TOO FAR AWAY AND COULD MOVE IN...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG FORM...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS PROBABLY BECOMING LESS LIKELY. AGAIN KFSD
WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS AND FOG...BUT BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS THEM STAYING VFR...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR. EXPECT ANY STRATUS TO CLEAR EARLY TO MID MORNING AS A
FRONT SWITCHES WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. COULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN AS THE FRONT CROSSES...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OF
SIGNIFICANCE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON EXPECTING GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 KTS TO BE COMMON AND LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO SHOULD SEE
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME...WITH HEIGHTS LIKELY HIGH END MVFR OR LOW END VFR. ALSO
SHOULD BE SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THAT AS WELL.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KUNR 230407
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
907 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW NEAR CYQR WITH COLD FRONT TO KRAP TO
SOUTH CENTRAL WY. COUPLE OF HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT AS WELL AS SOME -SHRASN. 00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWS LIFT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST MT BEING WASTED ON SATURATION
EARLIER THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR/OBSERVATIONS DO SUGGEST LOWER
TROPOSPHERE MOISTENING ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE
GROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST SD SO HAVE RAISED POPS THERE.

00Z GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS VERY WINDY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATES HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS FROM K2WX TO KRAP DURING PEAK MIXING LATER SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONTRAST TO LESSER MOS
GUIDANCE WINDS. 40-50KT 850MB WINDS NOTED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES HIGHER UP. STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED BEHIND TONIGHT/S
SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING.
WILL CONVERT WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPAND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS A BIT
WITH UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

DEEPENING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...WITH
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS. THERMAL RIDGE HAS SUPPORTED
A MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA...ESP WHERE ENHANCED LOCAL MIXING HAS
OCCURRED. HOWEVER...INCREASING LSA WITH A LL COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK FGEN BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL THEN SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL SUSTAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE WESTERN FA
LATE SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SPLITTING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A WEAK HIGH
CENTERED FGEN RESPONSE OVER THE REGION WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING UVM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...ESP NE WY WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ACCENT WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN THIS EVENING...QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT GIVEN
COOLING THERMAL FIELDS. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE INCH. LL FLOW WILL VEER NW TONIGHT AND INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
INITIAL CAA PUSH AND PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF NEAR ADV
WINDS AROUND KRAP AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN TAME UNTIL LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...SECONDARY CAA PUSH AND INCREASING LL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MEAN BL FLOW PROGS SUPPORT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS ESP ACROSS FAR NW SD. BUFR PROGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS OF 50 KNOTS TO MIX DOWN...ESP WITH THE SECONDARY
PRESSURE RISE SURGE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NW. IN
ADDITION...COLD POCKET ALOFT COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH LOCAL ENHANCED
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWER.
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADV FOR MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS...RETAINING A HIGH WIND WATCH ACROSS THE FAR NW WHERE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF 50 KNOT FLOW WILL
RESIDE. MEAN MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUPPORTED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WOULD LIKE TO HAVE ANOTHER FORECAST RUN OR TWO
TO SEE IF THIS TREND SUSTAINS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS ALONG THE PLAINS OF THE EASTERN BLACK
HILLS...INCLUDING RAPID CITY...WITH NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW POTENTIAL/SHORT DURATION/AND LOCALIZED
NATURE...FEEL A WIND ADV IS MORE PRUDENT. THE OTHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
BE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS TO
CHEYENNE CROSSING. INCREASING FROUDE/MOISTURE/AND FLOW WITH COOLING
THERMAL FIELDS IN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A DECENT PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE FORCING...EXTENDING INTO THE DGZ. 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. SNOW WILL WIND
DOWN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE BL DRIES. HOWEVER...AS SECONDARY IMPULSE
WILL LEAD TO RENEWED CHANCES FOR SNOW...MAINLY NE WY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH...BRINGING
A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
CANADIAN HAVE ALL FLIPPED BACK TO A COLDER REGIME FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...BUT UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO TEMPS. IT DOES CONTINUE TO LOOK MAINLY
DRY DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN
SD...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ014-025-027-032-041-043-044-046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012-013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 230407
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
907 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW NEAR CYQR WITH COLD FRONT TO KRAP TO
SOUTH CENTRAL WY. COUPLE OF HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT AS WELL AS SOME -SHRASN. 00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWS LIFT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST MT BEING WASTED ON SATURATION
EARLIER THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR/OBSERVATIONS DO SUGGEST LOWER
TROPOSPHERE MOISTENING ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE
GROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST SD SO HAVE RAISED POPS THERE.

00Z GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS VERY WINDY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATES HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS FROM K2WX TO KRAP DURING PEAK MIXING LATER SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONTRAST TO LESSER MOS
GUIDANCE WINDS. 40-50KT 850MB WINDS NOTED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES HIGHER UP. STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED BEHIND TONIGHT/S
SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING.
WILL CONVERT WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPAND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS A BIT
WITH UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

DEEPENING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...WITH
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS. THERMAL RIDGE HAS SUPPORTED
A MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA...ESP WHERE ENHANCED LOCAL MIXING HAS
OCCURRED. HOWEVER...INCREASING LSA WITH A LL COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK FGEN BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL THEN SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL SUSTAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE WESTERN FA
LATE SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SPLITTING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A WEAK HIGH
CENTERED FGEN RESPONSE OVER THE REGION WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING UVM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...ESP NE WY WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ACCENT WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN THIS EVENING...QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT GIVEN
COOLING THERMAL FIELDS. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE INCH. LL FLOW WILL VEER NW TONIGHT AND INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
INITIAL CAA PUSH AND PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF NEAR ADV
WINDS AROUND KRAP AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN TAME UNTIL LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...SECONDARY CAA PUSH AND INCREASING LL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MEAN BL FLOW PROGS SUPPORT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS ESP ACROSS FAR NW SD. BUFR PROGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS OF 50 KNOTS TO MIX DOWN...ESP WITH THE SECONDARY
PRESSURE RISE SURGE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NW. IN
ADDITION...COLD POCKET ALOFT COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH LOCAL ENHANCED
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWER.
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADV FOR MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS...RETAINING A HIGH WIND WATCH ACROSS THE FAR NW WHERE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF 50 KNOT FLOW WILL
RESIDE. MEAN MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUPPORTED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WOULD LIKE TO HAVE ANOTHER FORECAST RUN OR TWO
TO SEE IF THIS TREND SUSTAINS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS ALONG THE PLAINS OF THE EASTERN BLACK
HILLS...INCLUDING RAPID CITY...WITH NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW POTENTIAL/SHORT DURATION/AND LOCALIZED
NATURE...FEEL A WIND ADV IS MORE PRUDENT. THE OTHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
BE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS TO
CHEYENNE CROSSING. INCREASING FROUDE/MOISTURE/AND FLOW WITH COOLING
THERMAL FIELDS IN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A DECENT PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE FORCING...EXTENDING INTO THE DGZ. 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. SNOW WILL WIND
DOWN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE BL DRIES. HOWEVER...AS SECONDARY IMPULSE
WILL LEAD TO RENEWED CHANCES FOR SNOW...MAINLY NE WY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH...BRINGING
A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
CANADIAN HAVE ALL FLIPPED BACK TO A COLDER REGIME FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...BUT UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO TEMPS. IT DOES CONTINUE TO LOOK MAINLY
DRY DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN
SD...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ014-025-027-032-041-043-044-046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012-013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS63 KUNR 230407
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
907 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW NEAR CYQR WITH COLD FRONT TO KRAP TO
SOUTH CENTRAL WY. COUPLE OF HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT AS WELL AS SOME -SHRASN. 00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWS LIFT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST MT BEING WASTED ON SATURATION
EARLIER THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR/OBSERVATIONS DO SUGGEST LOWER
TROPOSPHERE MOISTENING ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE
GROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST SD SO HAVE RAISED POPS THERE.

00Z GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS VERY WINDY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATES HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS FROM K2WX TO KRAP DURING PEAK MIXING LATER SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONTRAST TO LESSER MOS
GUIDANCE WINDS. 40-50KT 850MB WINDS NOTED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES HIGHER UP. STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED BEHIND TONIGHT/S
SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING.
WILL CONVERT WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPAND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS A BIT
WITH UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

DEEPENING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...WITH
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS. THERMAL RIDGE HAS SUPPORTED
A MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA...ESP WHERE ENHANCED LOCAL MIXING HAS
OCCURRED. HOWEVER...INCREASING LSA WITH A LL COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK FGEN BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL THEN SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL SUSTAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE WESTERN FA
LATE SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SPLITTING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A WEAK HIGH
CENTERED FGEN RESPONSE OVER THE REGION WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING UVM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...ESP NE WY WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ACCENT WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN THIS EVENING...QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT GIVEN
COOLING THERMAL FIELDS. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE INCH. LL FLOW WILL VEER NW TONIGHT AND INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
INITIAL CAA PUSH AND PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF NEAR ADV
WINDS AROUND KRAP AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN TAME UNTIL LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...SECONDARY CAA PUSH AND INCREASING LL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MEAN BL FLOW PROGS SUPPORT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS ESP ACROSS FAR NW SD. BUFR PROGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS OF 50 KNOTS TO MIX DOWN...ESP WITH THE SECONDARY
PRESSURE RISE SURGE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NW. IN
ADDITION...COLD POCKET ALOFT COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH LOCAL ENHANCED
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWER.
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADV FOR MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS...RETAINING A HIGH WIND WATCH ACROSS THE FAR NW WHERE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF 50 KNOT FLOW WILL
RESIDE. MEAN MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUPPORTED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WOULD LIKE TO HAVE ANOTHER FORECAST RUN OR TWO
TO SEE IF THIS TREND SUSTAINS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS ALONG THE PLAINS OF THE EASTERN BLACK
HILLS...INCLUDING RAPID CITY...WITH NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW POTENTIAL/SHORT DURATION/AND LOCALIZED
NATURE...FEEL A WIND ADV IS MORE PRUDENT. THE OTHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
BE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS TO
CHEYENNE CROSSING. INCREASING FROUDE/MOISTURE/AND FLOW WITH COOLING
THERMAL FIELDS IN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A DECENT PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE FORCING...EXTENDING INTO THE DGZ. 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. SNOW WILL WIND
DOWN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE BL DRIES. HOWEVER...AS SECONDARY IMPULSE
WILL LEAD TO RENEWED CHANCES FOR SNOW...MAINLY NE WY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH...BRINGING
A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
CANADIAN HAVE ALL FLIPPED BACK TO A COLDER REGIME FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...BUT UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO TEMPS. IT DOES CONTINUE TO LOOK MAINLY
DRY DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN
SD...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ014-025-027-032-041-043-044-046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012-013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 230407
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
907 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW NEAR CYQR WITH COLD FRONT TO KRAP TO
SOUTH CENTRAL WY. COUPLE OF HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT AS WELL AS SOME -SHRASN. 00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWS LIFT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST MT BEING WASTED ON SATURATION
EARLIER THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR/OBSERVATIONS DO SUGGEST LOWER
TROPOSPHERE MOISTENING ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE
GROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST SD SO HAVE RAISED POPS THERE.

00Z GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS VERY WINDY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATES HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS FROM K2WX TO KRAP DURING PEAK MIXING LATER SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONTRAST TO LESSER MOS
GUIDANCE WINDS. 40-50KT 850MB WINDS NOTED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES HIGHER UP. STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED BEHIND TONIGHT/S
SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING.
WILL CONVERT WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPAND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS A BIT
WITH UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

DEEPENING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...WITH
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS. THERMAL RIDGE HAS SUPPORTED
A MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA...ESP WHERE ENHANCED LOCAL MIXING HAS
OCCURRED. HOWEVER...INCREASING LSA WITH A LL COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK FGEN BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL THEN SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL SUSTAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE WESTERN FA
LATE SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SPLITTING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A WEAK HIGH
CENTERED FGEN RESPONSE OVER THE REGION WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING UVM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...ESP NE WY WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ACCENT WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN THIS EVENING...QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT GIVEN
COOLING THERMAL FIELDS. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE INCH. LL FLOW WILL VEER NW TONIGHT AND INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
INITIAL CAA PUSH AND PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF NEAR ADV
WINDS AROUND KRAP AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN TAME UNTIL LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...SECONDARY CAA PUSH AND INCREASING LL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MEAN BL FLOW PROGS SUPPORT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS ESP ACROSS FAR NW SD. BUFR PROGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS OF 50 KNOTS TO MIX DOWN...ESP WITH THE SECONDARY
PRESSURE RISE SURGE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NW. IN
ADDITION...COLD POCKET ALOFT COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH LOCAL ENHANCED
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWER.
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADV FOR MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS...RETAINING A HIGH WIND WATCH ACROSS THE FAR NW WHERE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF 50 KNOT FLOW WILL
RESIDE. MEAN MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUPPORTED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WOULD LIKE TO HAVE ANOTHER FORECAST RUN OR TWO
TO SEE IF THIS TREND SUSTAINS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS ALONG THE PLAINS OF THE EASTERN BLACK
HILLS...INCLUDING RAPID CITY...WITH NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW POTENTIAL/SHORT DURATION/AND LOCALIZED
NATURE...FEEL A WIND ADV IS MORE PRUDENT. THE OTHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
BE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS TO
CHEYENNE CROSSING. INCREASING FROUDE/MOISTURE/AND FLOW WITH COOLING
THERMAL FIELDS IN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A DECENT PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE FORCING...EXTENDING INTO THE DGZ. 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. SNOW WILL WIND
DOWN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE BL DRIES. HOWEVER...AS SECONDARY IMPULSE
WILL LEAD TO RENEWED CHANCES FOR SNOW...MAINLY NE WY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH...BRINGING
A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
CANADIAN HAVE ALL FLIPPED BACK TO A COLDER REGIME FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...BUT UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO TEMPS. IT DOES CONTINUE TO LOOK MAINLY
DRY DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN
SD...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ014-025-027-032-041-043-044-046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012-013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS63 KFSD 230340
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
940 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HRRR AND
RAP SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...KEEPING MOST OF THE
STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. SIGNAL FOR DENSE FOG IN
THE MODELS IS LESS THAN LAST NIGHT AND CURRENTLY NOT SEEING MUCH
OUT THERE. WILL KEEP FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SEEMS TO BE DECREASING...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OTHERWISE WATCHING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT WILL TRY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH A PRETTY
GOOD AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WORK FROM WEST TO EAST INTO EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. DID GO AHEAD AND CHANGE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO ALL RAIN
THOUGH. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLAIN RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION
TYPE. SREF PROBABILITIES ALSO BACK THIS UP...SO FELT COMFORTABLE
REMOVING MENTION OF SNOW. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES
MIXED IN...BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN IF ANYTHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS LOW CLOUDS AND
STRATUS STRUGGLING TO ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WHERE THE STRATUS HAS ERODED...TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED
NICELY IN THE 40S AND 50S...BUT ACROSS THE EAST UNDER THE BLANKET OF
LOW CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY IN THE 30S.  EXPECT
THE EAST TO FILL BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...AND MAY
HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM VERMILLION TO MARSHALL AND EAST. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
IMPROVE AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST
DRYING OUT THE LOW LEVELS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...COULD
HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS COINCIDING WITH WEAK DIV Q ALOFT. PRECIP TYPE COULD
BE A REAL CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE NEAR FREEZING. TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE...FOR NOW...KEPT PRECIP TYPES CONFINED TO RAIN OR SNOW...BUT
COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH WARM DRY LAYER IN THE
LOWEST 2000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN
AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGH TEMPERATURES A TOUGH CALL ON SUNDAY...WITH
925 HPA TEMPS COOLING FROM NEAR 10C DOWN CLOSER TO 5C BY 0Z
MONDAY. FURTHER BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...925 HPA TEMPS HOVER IN THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS LEADING TO A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH. COLDER AIR BEGINS RUSHING BACK INTO THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING IN THE
EVENING AND REACHING THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MERGES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR EAST...SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS TO OUR EAST AND WITHOUT A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE...ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
COULD SEE AROUND A HALF INCH TO INCH IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
OTHERWISE A FEW TENTHS OR TRACE AT BEST. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND A BIT...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW MENTION. ANY EXISTING SNOW
PACK SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CRUST TO NOT CAUSE ANY BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES EITHER.

WITH THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY A COLD
AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS TRACK A CLIPPER WAVE ALONG THE
UPPER FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS FAST
MOVING WAVE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS...FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF THEN THE NAM. BUT IT
SEEMS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

UNCERTAINTY FURTHER INCREASES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND POTENTIALLY
BECOMES THE FOCUS MECHANISM OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS INTO CENTRAL SD AND THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH WHERE THIS WILL SET UP...BUT
WILL LEAVE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL MENTION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS WAVER WITH BRINGING FURTHER WAVES ALONG THE FLOW...BUT NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING. THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS TO RETURN TO NORTHWEST IOWA AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO INCLUDED
MENTION IN THE KSUX TAF. STILL A POSSIBILITY WE SEE LIFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF DENSE FOG...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. AGAIN KFSD WILL BE
NEAR THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS AND FOG...BUT BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS THEM STAYING VFR...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. EXPECT ANY STRATUS TO CLEAR EARLY TO MID MORNING AS A
FRONT SWITCHES WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. COULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...AS THE FRONT CROSSES...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
EXPECTING GUSTS TO 30 KTS TO BE COMMON...AND COULD POTENTIALLY BE
HIGHER. ALSO SHOULD SEE STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT IN
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...WITH HEIGHTS LIKELY HIGH END MVFR
OR LOW END VFR.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KABR 230303 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
903 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

MADE A COUPLE CHANGES TO P-TYPE FORECAST TONIGHT BASED OFF
OBSERVATIONS AND 18Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT. SWITCHED P-TYPE
TO RAIN-ONLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WAA AND SURFACE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ONGOING BENEATH BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 32F OVERNIGHT. SNOW/FREEZING RAIN SEEMS
LIKE A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY OCCURRENCE TONIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED
COVERAGE/TIMING OF FOG MENTION OVER THE EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE TROF...WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS HAVE
FALLEN TO 3 DEGREES OR LESS.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD. FORECASTING
LOWS TRICKY THIS EVENING AS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND MIXING WILL
GREATLY AFFECT READINGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON TEMPS IT WILL
BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. GENERALLY WENT WITH 20/30 POPS TONIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY AND THE RATHER GUSTY WINDS THAT
WILL DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY
REGION BASED ON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL ALSO LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR MED/LONG TERM FCST REVOLVES AROUND PCPN
TIMING...LOCATION AND MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 500HPA TROF LOCATED ALONG THE
ERN DAKOTAS AT 00Z MONDAY. SFC LOW LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF
CWA...BUT WRAPAROUND ON BACKSIDE...COUPLED WITH TIGHTENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT...COULD MAKE FOR SOME TOUGH CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR NE
PART OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

SYSTEM PULLS AWAY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH DIMISHING WINDS AND
SNOWFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

BIGGEST QUESTION IS GOING TO BE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ON SAGGING COLD FRONT...WHILE THE EC SPINS
UP A FAIRLY POTENT SFC LOW DIVING SE. THE NAM AT 84 HOURS OFFERS
UP A SOLN THAT IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW. THIS KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN IN NORTH DAKOTA THAN
IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED AS EC SOLN
WOULD CREATE SOME ISSUES...AGAIN IN THAT FAR NERN CWA
REGION...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND STRONG NW WINDS.

LASTLY...FOR THANKSGIVING...THE GFS KEEPS CANADIAN HIGH BOTTLED UP
IN SRN CANADA...WHICH ALLOWS SFC LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG STALLED COLD
FRONT DRAPED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE EC PUSHES THIS HIGH
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. DIFFERENCE IS GFS SOLN SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MEASUREABLE SNOW THURSDAY...WHILE EC NOT SO MUCH. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SUPERBLEND SOLN.

TEMP WISE...LOOK FOR SUBSEASONAL TEMPS TO AGAIN PUSH INTO THE
REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH LITTLE IF ANY RECOVERY
NOTED.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BRINGING A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
TERMINALS MAINLY BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z SUNDAY. IF IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN
IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND AT ANY TERMINAL WILL UPDATE TO ADD
RAIN MENTION. JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INSERT LIGHT RAIN
RIGHT NOW. THERE IS STILL A THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT...MAINLY
MVFR...FG/BR OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROF AT
KABR/KATY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST FOG FORECASTS IN THE KABR/KATY
TAFS AS NEEDED. BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT THE KMBG/KPIR
TERMINALS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/
     SUNDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-
     STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 230303 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
903 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

MADE A COUPLE CHANGES TO P-TYPE FORECAST TONIGHT BASED OFF
OBSERVATIONS AND 18Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT. SWITCHED P-TYPE
TO RAIN-ONLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WAA AND SURFACE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ONGOING BENEATH BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 32F OVERNIGHT. SNOW/FREEZING RAIN SEEMS
LIKE A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY OCCURRENCE TONIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED
COVERAGE/TIMING OF FOG MENTION OVER THE EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE TROF...WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS HAVE
FALLEN TO 3 DEGREES OR LESS.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD. FORECASTING
LOWS TRICKY THIS EVENING AS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND MIXING WILL
GREATLY AFFECT READINGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON TEMPS IT WILL
BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. GENERALLY WENT WITH 20/30 POPS TONIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY AND THE RATHER GUSTY WINDS THAT
WILL DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY
REGION BASED ON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL ALSO LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR MED/LONG TERM FCST REVOLVES AROUND PCPN
TIMING...LOCATION AND MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 500HPA TROF LOCATED ALONG THE
ERN DAKOTAS AT 00Z MONDAY. SFC LOW LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF
CWA...BUT WRAPAROUND ON BACKSIDE...COUPLED WITH TIGHTENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT...COULD MAKE FOR SOME TOUGH CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR NE
PART OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

SYSTEM PULLS AWAY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH DIMISHING WINDS AND
SNOWFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

BIGGEST QUESTION IS GOING TO BE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ON SAGGING COLD FRONT...WHILE THE EC SPINS
UP A FAIRLY POTENT SFC LOW DIVING SE. THE NAM AT 84 HOURS OFFERS
UP A SOLN THAT IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW. THIS KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN IN NORTH DAKOTA THAN
IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED AS EC SOLN
WOULD CREATE SOME ISSUES...AGAIN IN THAT FAR NERN CWA
REGION...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND STRONG NW WINDS.

LASTLY...FOR THANKSGIVING...THE GFS KEEPS CANADIAN HIGH BOTTLED UP
IN SRN CANADA...WHICH ALLOWS SFC LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG STALLED COLD
FRONT DRAPED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE EC PUSHES THIS HIGH
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. DIFFERENCE IS GFS SOLN SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MEASUREABLE SNOW THURSDAY...WHILE EC NOT SO MUCH. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SUPERBLEND SOLN.

TEMP WISE...LOOK FOR SUBSEASONAL TEMPS TO AGAIN PUSH INTO THE
REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH LITTLE IF ANY RECOVERY
NOTED.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BRINGING A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
TERMINALS MAINLY BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z SUNDAY. IF IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN
IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND AT ANY TERMINAL WILL UPDATE TO ADD
RAIN MENTION. JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INSERT LIGHT RAIN
RIGHT NOW. THERE IS STILL A THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT...MAINLY
MVFR...FG/BR OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROF AT
KABR/KATY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST FOG FORECASTS IN THE KABR/KATY
TAFS AS NEEDED. BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT THE KMBG/KPIR
TERMINALS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/
     SUNDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-
     STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 230303 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
903 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

MADE A COUPLE CHANGES TO P-TYPE FORECAST TONIGHT BASED OFF
OBSERVATIONS AND 18Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT. SWITCHED P-TYPE
TO RAIN-ONLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WAA AND SURFACE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ONGOING BENEATH BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 32F OVERNIGHT. SNOW/FREEZING RAIN SEEMS
LIKE A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY OCCURRENCE TONIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED
COVERAGE/TIMING OF FOG MENTION OVER THE EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE TROF...WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS HAVE
FALLEN TO 3 DEGREES OR LESS.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD. FORECASTING
LOWS TRICKY THIS EVENING AS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND MIXING WILL
GREATLY AFFECT READINGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON TEMPS IT WILL
BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. GENERALLY WENT WITH 20/30 POPS TONIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY AND THE RATHER GUSTY WINDS THAT
WILL DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY
REGION BASED ON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL ALSO LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR MED/LONG TERM FCST REVOLVES AROUND PCPN
TIMING...LOCATION AND MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 500HPA TROF LOCATED ALONG THE
ERN DAKOTAS AT 00Z MONDAY. SFC LOW LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF
CWA...BUT WRAPAROUND ON BACKSIDE...COUPLED WITH TIGHTENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT...COULD MAKE FOR SOME TOUGH CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR NE
PART OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

SYSTEM PULLS AWAY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH DIMISHING WINDS AND
SNOWFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

BIGGEST QUESTION IS GOING TO BE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ON SAGGING COLD FRONT...WHILE THE EC SPINS
UP A FAIRLY POTENT SFC LOW DIVING SE. THE NAM AT 84 HOURS OFFERS
UP A SOLN THAT IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW. THIS KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN IN NORTH DAKOTA THAN
IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED AS EC SOLN
WOULD CREATE SOME ISSUES...AGAIN IN THAT FAR NERN CWA
REGION...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND STRONG NW WINDS.

LASTLY...FOR THANKSGIVING...THE GFS KEEPS CANADIAN HIGH BOTTLED UP
IN SRN CANADA...WHICH ALLOWS SFC LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG STALLED COLD
FRONT DRAPED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE EC PUSHES THIS HIGH
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. DIFFERENCE IS GFS SOLN SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MEASUREABLE SNOW THURSDAY...WHILE EC NOT SO MUCH. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SUPERBLEND SOLN.

TEMP WISE...LOOK FOR SUBSEASONAL TEMPS TO AGAIN PUSH INTO THE
REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH LITTLE IF ANY RECOVERY
NOTED.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BRINGING A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
TERMINALS MAINLY BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z SUNDAY. IF IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN
IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND AT ANY TERMINAL WILL UPDATE TO ADD
RAIN MENTION. JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INSERT LIGHT RAIN
RIGHT NOW. THERE IS STILL A THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT...MAINLY
MVFR...FG/BR OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROF AT
KABR/KATY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST FOG FORECASTS IN THE KABR/KATY
TAFS AS NEEDED. BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT THE KMBG/KPIR
TERMINALS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/
     SUNDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-
     STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 230303 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
903 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

MADE A COUPLE CHANGES TO P-TYPE FORECAST TONIGHT BASED OFF
OBSERVATIONS AND 18Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT. SWITCHED P-TYPE
TO RAIN-ONLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WAA AND SURFACE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ONGOING BENEATH BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 32F OVERNIGHT. SNOW/FREEZING RAIN SEEMS
LIKE A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY OCCURRENCE TONIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED
COVERAGE/TIMING OF FOG MENTION OVER THE EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE TROF...WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS HAVE
FALLEN TO 3 DEGREES OR LESS.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD. FORECASTING
LOWS TRICKY THIS EVENING AS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND MIXING WILL
GREATLY AFFECT READINGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON TEMPS IT WILL
BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. GENERALLY WENT WITH 20/30 POPS TONIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY AND THE RATHER GUSTY WINDS THAT
WILL DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY
REGION BASED ON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL ALSO LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR MED/LONG TERM FCST REVOLVES AROUND PCPN
TIMING...LOCATION AND MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 500HPA TROF LOCATED ALONG THE
ERN DAKOTAS AT 00Z MONDAY. SFC LOW LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF
CWA...BUT WRAPAROUND ON BACKSIDE...COUPLED WITH TIGHTENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT...COULD MAKE FOR SOME TOUGH CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR NE
PART OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

SYSTEM PULLS AWAY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH DIMISHING WINDS AND
SNOWFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

BIGGEST QUESTION IS GOING TO BE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ON SAGGING COLD FRONT...WHILE THE EC SPINS
UP A FAIRLY POTENT SFC LOW DIVING SE. THE NAM AT 84 HOURS OFFERS
UP A SOLN THAT IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW. THIS KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN IN NORTH DAKOTA THAN
IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED AS EC SOLN
WOULD CREATE SOME ISSUES...AGAIN IN THAT FAR NERN CWA
REGION...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND STRONG NW WINDS.

LASTLY...FOR THANKSGIVING...THE GFS KEEPS CANADIAN HIGH BOTTLED UP
IN SRN CANADA...WHICH ALLOWS SFC LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG STALLED COLD
FRONT DRAPED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE EC PUSHES THIS HIGH
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. DIFFERENCE IS GFS SOLN SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MEASUREABLE SNOW THURSDAY...WHILE EC NOT SO MUCH. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SUPERBLEND SOLN.

TEMP WISE...LOOK FOR SUBSEASONAL TEMPS TO AGAIN PUSH INTO THE
REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH LITTLE IF ANY RECOVERY
NOTED.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BRINGING A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
TERMINALS MAINLY BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z SUNDAY. IF IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN
IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND AT ANY TERMINAL WILL UPDATE TO ADD
RAIN MENTION. JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INSERT LIGHT RAIN
RIGHT NOW. THERE IS STILL A THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT...MAINLY
MVFR...FG/BR OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROF AT
KABR/KATY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST FOG FORECASTS IN THE KABR/KATY
TAFS AS NEEDED. BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT THE KMBG/KPIR
TERMINALS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/
     SUNDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-
     STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 230000
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
600 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS LOW CLOUDS AND
STRATUS STRUGGLING TO ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WHERE THE STRATUS HAS ERODED...TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED
NICELY IN THE 40S AND 50S...BUT ACROSS THE EAST UNDER THE BLANKET OF
LOW CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY IN THE 30S.  EXPECT
THE EAST TO FILL BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...AND MAY
HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM VERMILLION TO MARSHALL AND EAST. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
IMPROVE AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST
DRYING OUT THE LOW LEVELS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...COULD
HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS COINCIDING WITH WEAK DIV Q ALOFT. PRECIP TYPE COULD
BE A REAL CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE NEAR FREEZING. TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE...FOR NOW...KEPT PRECIP TYPES CONFINED TO RAIN OR SNOW...BUT
COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH WARM DRY LAYER IN THE
LOWEST 2000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN
AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGH TEMPERATURES A TOUGH CALL ON SUNDAY...WITH
925 HPA TEMPS COOLING FROM NEAR 10C DOWN CLOSER TO 5C BY 0Z
MONDAY. FURTHER BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...925 HPA TEMPS HOVER IN THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS LEADING TO A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH. COLDER AIR BEGINS RUSHING BACK INTO THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING IN THE
EVENING AND REACHING THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MERGES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR EAST...SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS TO OUR EAST AND WITHOUT A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE...ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
COULD SEE AROUND A HALF INCH TO INCH IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
OTHERWISE A FEW TENTHS OR TRACE AT BEST. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND A BIT...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW MENTION. ANY EXISTING SNOW
PACK SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CRUST TO NOT CAUSE ANY BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES EITHER.

WITH THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY A COLD
AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS TRACK A CLIPPER WAVE ALONG THE
UPPER FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS FAST
MOVING WAVE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS...FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF THEN THE NAM. BUT IT
SEEMS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

UNCERTAINTY FURTHER INCREASES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND POTENTIALLY
BECOMES THE FOCUS MECHANISM OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS INTO CENTRAL SD AND THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH WHERE THIS WILL SET UP...BUT
WILL LEAVE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL MENTION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS WAVER WITH BRINGING FURTHER WAVES ALONG THE FLOW...BUT NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING. THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS TO RETURN TO NORTHWEST IOWA AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO INCLUDED
MENTION IN THE KSUX TAF. STILL A POSSIBILITY WE SEE LIFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF DENSE FOG...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. AGAIN KFSD WILL BE
NEAR THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS AND FOG...BUT BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS THEM STAYING VFR...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. EXPECT ANY STRATUS TO CLEAR EARLY TO MID MORNING AS A
FRONT SWITCHES WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. COULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...AS THE FRONT CROSSES...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
EXPECTING GUSTS TO 30 KTS TO BE COMMON...AND COULD POTENTIALLY BE
HIGHER. ALSO SHOULD SEE STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT IN
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...WITH HEIGHTS LIKELY HIGH END MVFR
OR LOW END VFR.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 230000
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
600 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS LOW CLOUDS AND
STRATUS STRUGGLING TO ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WHERE THE STRATUS HAS ERODED...TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED
NICELY IN THE 40S AND 50S...BUT ACROSS THE EAST UNDER THE BLANKET OF
LOW CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY IN THE 30S.  EXPECT
THE EAST TO FILL BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...AND MAY
HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM VERMILLION TO MARSHALL AND EAST. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
IMPROVE AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST
DRYING OUT THE LOW LEVELS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...COULD
HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS COINCIDING WITH WEAK DIV Q ALOFT. PRECIP TYPE COULD
BE A REAL CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE NEAR FREEZING. TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE...FOR NOW...KEPT PRECIP TYPES CONFINED TO RAIN OR SNOW...BUT
COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH WARM DRY LAYER IN THE
LOWEST 2000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN
AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGH TEMPERATURES A TOUGH CALL ON SUNDAY...WITH
925 HPA TEMPS COOLING FROM NEAR 10C DOWN CLOSER TO 5C BY 0Z
MONDAY. FURTHER BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...925 HPA TEMPS HOVER IN THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS LEADING TO A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH. COLDER AIR BEGINS RUSHING BACK INTO THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING IN THE
EVENING AND REACHING THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MERGES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR EAST...SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS TO OUR EAST AND WITHOUT A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE...ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
COULD SEE AROUND A HALF INCH TO INCH IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
OTHERWISE A FEW TENTHS OR TRACE AT BEST. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND A BIT...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW MENTION. ANY EXISTING SNOW
PACK SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CRUST TO NOT CAUSE ANY BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES EITHER.

WITH THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY A COLD
AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS TRACK A CLIPPER WAVE ALONG THE
UPPER FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS FAST
MOVING WAVE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS...FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF THEN THE NAM. BUT IT
SEEMS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

UNCERTAINTY FURTHER INCREASES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND POTENTIALLY
BECOMES THE FOCUS MECHANISM OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS INTO CENTRAL SD AND THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH WHERE THIS WILL SET UP...BUT
WILL LEAVE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL MENTION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS WAVER WITH BRINGING FURTHER WAVES ALONG THE FLOW...BUT NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING. THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS TO RETURN TO NORTHWEST IOWA AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO INCLUDED
MENTION IN THE KSUX TAF. STILL A POSSIBILITY WE SEE LIFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF DENSE FOG...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. AGAIN KFSD WILL BE
NEAR THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS AND FOG...BUT BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS THEM STAYING VFR...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. EXPECT ANY STRATUS TO CLEAR EARLY TO MID MORNING AS A
FRONT SWITCHES WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. COULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...AS THE FRONT CROSSES...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
EXPECTING GUSTS TO 30 KTS TO BE COMMON...AND COULD POTENTIALLY BE
HIGHER. ALSO SHOULD SEE STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT IN
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...WITH HEIGHTS LIKELY HIGH END MVFR
OR LOW END VFR.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KUNR 222329
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
429 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

DEEPENING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...WITH
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS. THERMAL RIDGE HAS SUPPORTED
A MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA...ESP WHERE ENHANCED LOCAL MIXING HAS
OCCURRED. HOWEVER...INCREASING LSA WITH A LL COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK FGEN BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL THEN SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL SUSTAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE WESTERN FA
LATE SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SPLITTING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A WEAK HIGH
CENTERED FGEN RESPONSE OVER THE REGION WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING UVM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...ESP NE WY WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ACCENT WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN THIS EVENING...QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT GIVEN
COOLING THERMAL FIELDS. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE INCH. LL FLOW WILL VEER NW TONIGHT AND INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
INITIAL CAA PUSH AND PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF NEAR ADV
WINDS AROUND KRAP AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN TAME UNTIL LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...SECONDARY CAA PUSH AND INCREASING LL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MEAN BL FLOW PROGS SUPPORT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS ESP ACROSS FAR NW SD. BUFR PROGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS OF 50 KNOTS TO MIX DOWN...ESP WITH THE SECONDARY
PRESSURE RISE SURGE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NW. IN
ADDITION...COLD POCKET ALOFT COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH LOCAL ENHANCED
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWER.
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADV FOR MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS...RETAINING A HIGH WIND WATCH ACROSS THE FAR NW WHERE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF 50 KNOT FLOW WILL
RESIDE. MEAN MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUPPORTED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WOULD LIKE TO HAVE ANOTHER FORECAST RUN OR TWO
TO SEE IF THIS TREND SUSTAINS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS ALONG THE PLAINS OF THE EASTERN BLACK
HILLS...INCLUDING RAPID CITY...WITH NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW POTENTIAL/SHORT DURATION/AND LOCALIZED
NATURE...FEEL A WIND ADV IS MORE PRUDENT. THE OTHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
BE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS TO
CHEYENNE CROSSING. INCREASING FROUDE/MOISTURE/AND FLOW WITH COOLING
THERMAL FIELDS IN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A DECENT PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE FORCING...EXTENDING INTO THE DGZ. 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. SNOW WILL WIND
DOWN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE BL DRIES. HOWEVER...AS SECONDARY IMPULSE
WILL LEAD TO RENEWED CHANCES FOR SNOW...MAINLY NE WY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH...BRINGING
A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
CANADIAN HAVE ALL FLIPPED BACK TO A COLDER REGIME FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...BUT UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO TEMPS. IT DOES CONTINUE TO LOOK MAINLY
DRY DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN
SD...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ014-025>027-031-032-041-043-044-046-047-049-
     072.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012-013-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS63 KUNR 222329
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
429 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

DEEPENING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...WITH
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS. THERMAL RIDGE HAS SUPPORTED
A MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA...ESP WHERE ENHANCED LOCAL MIXING HAS
OCCURRED. HOWEVER...INCREASING LSA WITH A LL COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK FGEN BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL THEN SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL SUSTAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE WESTERN FA
LATE SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SPLITTING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A WEAK HIGH
CENTERED FGEN RESPONSE OVER THE REGION WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING UVM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...ESP NE WY WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ACCENT WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN THIS EVENING...QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT GIVEN
COOLING THERMAL FIELDS. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE INCH. LL FLOW WILL VEER NW TONIGHT AND INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
INITIAL CAA PUSH AND PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF NEAR ADV
WINDS AROUND KRAP AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN TAME UNTIL LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...SECONDARY CAA PUSH AND INCREASING LL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MEAN BL FLOW PROGS SUPPORT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS ESP ACROSS FAR NW SD. BUFR PROGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS OF 50 KNOTS TO MIX DOWN...ESP WITH THE SECONDARY
PRESSURE RISE SURGE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NW. IN
ADDITION...COLD POCKET ALOFT COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH LOCAL ENHANCED
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWER.
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADV FOR MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS...RETAINING A HIGH WIND WATCH ACROSS THE FAR NW WHERE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF 50 KNOT FLOW WILL
RESIDE. MEAN MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUPPORTED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WOULD LIKE TO HAVE ANOTHER FORECAST RUN OR TWO
TO SEE IF THIS TREND SUSTAINS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS ALONG THE PLAINS OF THE EASTERN BLACK
HILLS...INCLUDING RAPID CITY...WITH NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW POTENTIAL/SHORT DURATION/AND LOCALIZED
NATURE...FEEL A WIND ADV IS MORE PRUDENT. THE OTHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
BE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS TO
CHEYENNE CROSSING. INCREASING FROUDE/MOISTURE/AND FLOW WITH COOLING
THERMAL FIELDS IN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A DECENT PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE FORCING...EXTENDING INTO THE DGZ. 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. SNOW WILL WIND
DOWN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE BL DRIES. HOWEVER...AS SECONDARY IMPULSE
WILL LEAD TO RENEWED CHANCES FOR SNOW...MAINLY NE WY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH...BRINGING
A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
CANADIAN HAVE ALL FLIPPED BACK TO A COLDER REGIME FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...BUT UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO TEMPS. IT DOES CONTINUE TO LOOK MAINLY
DRY DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN
SD...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ014-025>027-031-032-041-043-044-046-047-049-
     072.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012-013-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KFSD 222216
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
416 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS LOW CLOUDS AND
STRATUS STRUGGLING TO ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WHERE THE STRATUS HAS ERODED...TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED
NICELY IN THE 40S AND 50S...BUT ACROSS THE EAST UNDER THE BLANKET OF
LOW CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY IN THE 30S.  EXPECT
THE EAST TO FILL BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...AND MAY
HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM VERMILLION TO MASHALL AND EAST.  EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE
AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST DRYING OUT
THE LOW LEVELS.  WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...COULD HAVE A SMALL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH STRONG 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS COINCIDING
WITH WEAK DIV Q ALOFT. PRECIP TYPE COULD BE A REAL CONCERN THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE NEAR FREEZING.
TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPE...FOR NOW...KEPT PRECIP TYPES
CONFINED TO RAIN OR SNOW...BUT COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
WITH WARM DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 2000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO
LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES A TOUGH CALL ON SUNDAY...WITH 925 HPA TEMPS COOLING
FROM NEAR 10C DOWN CLOSER TO 5C BY 0Z MONDAY. FURTHER BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST...925 HPA TEMPS HOVER IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS LEADING
TO A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL FLUCTUATION UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH. COLDER AIR BEGINS RUSHING BACK INTO THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING IN THE
EVENING AND REACHING THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MERGES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR EAST...SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS TO OUR EAST AND WITHOUT A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE...ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
COULD SEE AROUND A HALF INCH TO INCH IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
OTHERWISE A FEW TENTHS OR TRACE AT BEST. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND A BIT...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW MENTION. ANY EXISTING SNOW
PACK SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CRUST TO NOT CAUSE ANY BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES EITHER.

WITH THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY A COLD
AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS TRACK A CLIPPER WAVE ALONG THE
UPPER FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS FAST
MOVING WAVE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS...FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF THEN THE NAM. BUT IT
SEEMS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

UNCERTAINTY FURTHER INCREASES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND POTENTIALLY
BECOMES THE FOCUS MECHANISM OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS INTO CENTRAL SD AND THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH WHERE THIS WILL SET UP...BUT
WILL LEAVE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL MENTION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS WAVER WITH BRINGING FURTHER WAVES ALONG THE FLOW...BUT NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING. THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 30.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING BACK THE LOW CEILINGS AND FOG TONIGHT.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...BOUNDARY SHOULD FLUSH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT LEADING TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 222216
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
416 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS LOW CLOUDS AND
STRATUS STRUGGLING TO ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WHERE THE STRATUS HAS ERODED...TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED
NICELY IN THE 40S AND 50S...BUT ACROSS THE EAST UNDER THE BLANKET OF
LOW CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY IN THE 30S.  EXPECT
THE EAST TO FILL BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...AND MAY
HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM VERMILLION TO MASHALL AND EAST.  EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE
AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST DRYING OUT
THE LOW LEVELS.  WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...COULD HAVE A SMALL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH STRONG 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS COINCIDING
WITH WEAK DIV Q ALOFT. PRECIP TYPE COULD BE A REAL CONCERN THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE NEAR FREEZING.
TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPE...FOR NOW...KEPT PRECIP TYPES
CONFINED TO RAIN OR SNOW...BUT COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
WITH WARM DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 2000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO
LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES A TOUGH CALL ON SUNDAY...WITH 925 HPA TEMPS COOLING
FROM NEAR 10C DOWN CLOSER TO 5C BY 0Z MONDAY. FURTHER BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST...925 HPA TEMPS HOVER IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS LEADING
TO A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL FLUCTUATION UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH. COLDER AIR BEGINS RUSHING BACK INTO THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING IN THE
EVENING AND REACHING THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MERGES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR EAST...SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS TO OUR EAST AND WITHOUT A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE...ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
COULD SEE AROUND A HALF INCH TO INCH IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
OTHERWISE A FEW TENTHS OR TRACE AT BEST. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND A BIT...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW MENTION. ANY EXISTING SNOW
PACK SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CRUST TO NOT CAUSE ANY BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES EITHER.

WITH THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY A COLD
AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS TRACK A CLIPPER WAVE ALONG THE
UPPER FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS FAST
MOVING WAVE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS...FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF THEN THE NAM. BUT IT
SEEMS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

UNCERTAINTY FURTHER INCREASES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND POTENTIALLY
BECOMES THE FOCUS MECHANISM OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS INTO CENTRAL SD AND THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH WHERE THIS WILL SET UP...BUT
WILL LEAVE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL MENTION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS WAVER WITH BRINGING FURTHER WAVES ALONG THE FLOW...BUT NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING. THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 30.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING BACK THE LOW CEILINGS AND FOG TONIGHT.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...BOUNDARY SHOULD FLUSH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT LEADING TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KABR 222139
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
339 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD. FORECASTING
LOWS TRICKY THIS EVENING AS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND MIXING WILL
GREATLY AFFECT READINGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON TEMPS IT WILL
BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. GENERALLY WENT WITH 20/30 POPS TONIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY AND THE RATHER GUSTY WINDS THAT
WILL DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY
REGION BASED ON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL ALSO LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR MED/LONG TERM FCST REVOLVES AROUND PCPN
TIMING...LOCATION AND MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 500HPA TROF LOCATED ALONG THE
ERN DAKOTAS AT 00Z MONDAY. SFC LOW LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF
CWA...BUT WRAPAROUND ON BACKSIDE...COUPLED WITH TIGHTENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT...COULD MAKE FOR SOME TOUGH CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR NE
PART OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

SYSTEM PULLS AWAY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH DIMISHING WINDS AND
SNOWFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

BIGGEST QUESTION IS GOING TO BE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ON SAGGING COLD FRONT...WHILE THE EC SPINS
UP A FAIRLY POTENT SFC LOW DIVING SE. THE NAM AT 84 HOURS OFFERS
UP A SOLN THAT IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW. THIS KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN IN NORTH DAKOTA THAN
IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED AS EC SOLN
WOULD CREATE SOME ISSUES...AGAIN IN THAT FAR NERN CWA
REGION...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND STRONG NW WINDS.

LASTLY...FOR THANKSGIVING...THE GFS KEEPS CANADIAN HIGH BOTTLED UP
IN SRN CANADA...WHICH ALLOWS SFC LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG STALLED COLD
FRONT DRAPED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE EC PUSHES THIS HIGH
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. DIFFERENCE IS GFS SOLN SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MEASUREABLE SNOW THURSDAY...WHILE EC NOT SO MUCH. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SUPERBLEND SOLN.

TEMP WISE...LOOK FOR SUBSEASONAL TEMPS TO AGAIN PUSH INTO THE
REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH LITTLE IF ANY RECOVERY
NOTED.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED...BUT THERE IS A
THREAT FOR FG/BR ACROSS KATY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME BUT
WILL EXAMINE AGAIN AT 00Z ISSUANCE AND MAY NEED TO INSERT MENTION
IN TAF.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/
     SUNDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-
     STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 222139
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
339 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD. FORECASTING
LOWS TRICKY THIS EVENING AS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND MIXING WILL
GREATLY AFFECT READINGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON TEMPS IT WILL
BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. GENERALLY WENT WITH 20/30 POPS TONIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY AND THE RATHER GUSTY WINDS THAT
WILL DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY
REGION BASED ON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL ALSO LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR MED/LONG TERM FCST REVOLVES AROUND PCPN
TIMING...LOCATION AND MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 500HPA TROF LOCATED ALONG THE
ERN DAKOTAS AT 00Z MONDAY. SFC LOW LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF
CWA...BUT WRAPAROUND ON BACKSIDE...COUPLED WITH TIGHTENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT...COULD MAKE FOR SOME TOUGH CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR NE
PART OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

SYSTEM PULLS AWAY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH DIMISHING WINDS AND
SNOWFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

BIGGEST QUESTION IS GOING TO BE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ON SAGGING COLD FRONT...WHILE THE EC SPINS
UP A FAIRLY POTENT SFC LOW DIVING SE. THE NAM AT 84 HOURS OFFERS
UP A SOLN THAT IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW. THIS KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN IN NORTH DAKOTA THAN
IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED AS EC SOLN
WOULD CREATE SOME ISSUES...AGAIN IN THAT FAR NERN CWA
REGION...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND STRONG NW WINDS.

LASTLY...FOR THANKSGIVING...THE GFS KEEPS CANADIAN HIGH BOTTLED UP
IN SRN CANADA...WHICH ALLOWS SFC LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG STALLED COLD
FRONT DRAPED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE EC PUSHES THIS HIGH
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. DIFFERENCE IS GFS SOLN SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MEASUREABLE SNOW THURSDAY...WHILE EC NOT SO MUCH. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SUPERBLEND SOLN.

TEMP WISE...LOOK FOR SUBSEASONAL TEMPS TO AGAIN PUSH INTO THE
REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH LITTLE IF ANY RECOVERY
NOTED.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED...BUT THERE IS A
THREAT FOR FG/BR ACROSS KATY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME BUT
WILL EXAMINE AGAIN AT 00Z ISSUANCE AND MAY NEED TO INSERT MENTION
IN TAF.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/
     SUNDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-
     STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 221758 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1158 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

AREA OF FOG MADE IT INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND HAVE ALREADY UPDATED ZFP/GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. ITS MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN HAMLIN...SOUTHERN DEUEL AND
FAR SOUTHEAST CODINGTON COUNTIES. NORTHWARD PROGRESSION HAS
STOPPED NOW THAT THE SUN IS OUT. BRANDT WEBCAM SHOWING RATHER
DENSE FOG AFFECTING I-29. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM
NICELY TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE CWA. NO CHANGES TO
FORECAST HIGHS AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL EFFECTS CLOUDS MAY HAVE ON TEMPS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

H925 TEMPERATURES RUN FROM +1 TO +6C THIS AM. A TROF DEVELOPS OUT
WEST TODAY...WHICH SHIFTS LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WITH
A SHALLOW INVERSION...WILL SEE A RAPID WARM UP WITH PLENTY OF SUN
TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD THANKS TO
EFFICIENT MIXING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES
FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY...INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. MIXED DOWN WINDS ON
THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WEST RIVER BY MID
AFTERNOON. A 12 TO 16MB PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES IN...WHICH WILL KEEP
WINDS UP. A 1035MB HIGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL KEEP
A GRADIENT IN PLACE...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES SHIFTING TOWARDS
MINNESOTA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MIXED DOWN WINDS CONTINUE TO TOP
OUT AROUND 50MPH WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTED TOWARDS EASTERN COUNTIES.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS BEST FORCING IS ELSEWHERE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN THE NAM SUGGEST A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO PRECIPITATION
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WRAP AROUND QPF COULD REMAIN IN THE EAST FOR
MONDAY. OUR CURRENT SNOW PACK...IF IT REMAINS...WILL
REFREEZE...HOWEVER WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WILL THEN SEE A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND GEM
ARE FASTER AND WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS LOOK TO INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING THE CWA.
THERE ARE THEN MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR THE
MID PART OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND GEM TRACK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SNOWY AND BREEZY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SNOW
AREA. THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OVER THE
AREA...WITH NO PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP A SMALL POP IN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST...WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
GFS AND GEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO TRICKY AS THEY WILL BE WARMER WITH THE
GFS/GEM SOLUTION AND MUCH COLDER IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED...BUT THERE IS A
THREAT FOR FG/BR ACROSS KATY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME BUT
WILL EXAMINE AGAIN AT 00Z ISSUANCE AND MAY NEED TO INSERT MENTION
IN TAF.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KUNR 221744
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1044 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

POTENT NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING OF UVM LOOKS OT BE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. GIVEN UPSTREAM OB TRENDS...WENT AHEAD
AND INCREASED POPS THIS AFTERNOON FAR NW. OTHERWISE...WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NW SD SUNDAY GIVEN
MOMENTUM/MIXING PROGS. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 LOOK LIKELY ACROSS
FAR NW SD...AND POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS RAPID CITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE LARGE
SCALE FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS MORNING.  WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW ARE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS PRODUCING SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CONTDVD...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ARE IN THE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR
NORTHERN ROCKIES. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ARE SEASONABLY MILD BUT WARM CONSIDERABLY TO THE WEST IN THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. A VIGOROUS FAST MOVING PACIFIC SHORT
WAVE WAS MOVING ONSHORE AT 09Z. A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN HAS PRETTY MUCH CUT OFF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD.

TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY.  THE APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM MID MORNING
ONWARD...BUT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST
A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.  A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLKHLS REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE DCVA FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AS THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN INITIALLY THEN BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW
AFTER 06Z AND BE ALL SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  DEPENDING ON
WHEN THE SWITCHOVER ACTUALLY OCCURS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLKHLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING COULD SEE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...THE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SPLITTING AND
SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS
EVOLUTION WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY ON
SUNDAY AS DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY FADE.
WIND SPEEDS MEETING HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS MOST AREAS. SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE WY AND PORTIONS OF FAR WRN
SD.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TYPE
OF AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING WARMER
AIR ADVECTING IN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED BACK TO A COLDER SOLUTION WHILE
THE 00Z ECM HAS TRENDED WARMER. WILL STICK WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE
OF ALL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 1043 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT.
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...CHANGING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012-013-025-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26






000
FXUS63 KFSD 221742
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1142 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST FROM NW IA INTO PART OF SW MN
INTO THE LATE MORNING WHEN LOW LEVEL SWRLY FLOW AND SOME
WARMING WILL BE SWEEPING IT OUT. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO GET
MARGINALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAD NOT
DEVELOPED...AND WITH A CONTINUING DECENT LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THAT AREA
SUSPECT WE WILL NOT NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT OF COURSE WILL
MONITOR NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME VERY PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST BUT DRIER AIR NOT MUCH ABOVE THE
SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH. ASIDE FROM SOME STRATUS LINGERING
FAR EAST INTO PERHAPS THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL BE
MILD WITH A DECENT ROUND OF SNOWMELT. UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST LOOKS GOOD FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT WE EXPECT THAT THE STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP SOUTHEAST AS
HIGHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL LIFT FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY DRY
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY THE AIR BEING DRY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
PRECIPITATION THIS WAY THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE INCREASE IN
LOW CLOUDS AND THEIR DEPTH OVER NORTHWEST IOWA SUGGESTS SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT THAT INCREASED DEPTH ALSO SUGGESTS
DROPLETS COULD BE BIG ENOUGH FOR MINIMALLY MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN...AND SINCE WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING LOW POPS...WILL CONTINUE
THEM FOR LATE TONIGHT...EVEN THOUGH MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAIN
SEEMS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH AREAS IN
SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 MAYBE COOLING A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW FREEZING. UNSURE OF THE DEGREE OF LATE NIGHT MIXING WITH
APPROACHING SYSTEM SO WILL NOT GET CUTE WITH ANY SUDDEN TEMPERATURE
JUMPS...BUT THEY COULD HAPPEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

DOMINANT FOCUS OF THE START OF THE LONGER TERM IS EVOLUTION OF THE
STRONG SYSTEM TO THE EAST HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY COMPONENT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...AT
LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT FOR SOME EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION AS VARIOUS
DEGREE OF SHARPNESS TO TROUGH BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
IF NOT FOR A FEW MODELS/RUNS INDICATING THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE
ACTUALLY UNDERGOING WEAKENING HEADING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING...WOULD JUSTIFY PERHAPS STRONGER ON THE POPS FOR THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BIT OF CONCERN ON PRECIPITATION
TYPE POTENTIAL WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS ALOFT BATTLING WHAT IS
CERTAIN TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT WET BULB IMPACT. PROBABLY A MIX OF
RAIN OR SNOW...OR EVEN ALL LIGHT SNOW IF CAN GET A BIT MORE
INTENSE OR BANDED PER NAM TYPE SOLUTION. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT...WILL LIKELY FIND A MURKY MESS
OF LOWER CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL GET QUICKLY SHOVED ASIDE BY SHIFT IN
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. INITIALLY NOT A VERY STRONG COLD PUSH...
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL REALLY START TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A 6-8C DROP IN 925 HPA
TEMPS LIMITING MIXING BY MIDDAY NORTHWEST...MID AFTERNOON CENTRAL...
AND LATE DAY SOUTHEAST CWA...AND MOST CERTAINLY ENDING WITH A MORE
THAN TYPICAL LATE DAY DROP. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
MPH BY LATE DAY OVER MUCH OF SE SD.

OVERNIGHT IS WHEN THE MERGING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY OCCURS...BUT WILL BE TO THE EAST...AND IMPACT WILL
BE MAINLY TO THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS FAR STRONGER
WITH CYCLOGENESIS...SOMEWHAT FURTHER EASTWARD. WHATEVER SOLUTION
IS MORE CORRECT IN THE END...OUR AREA IS SURE TO EXPERIENCE VERY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM 25 TO 45 MPH...AND A TENDENCY FOR THE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY PERIOD FOR SOME LIGHTER SNOWFALL TO CYCLE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SW MN. APPEARS THAT
TOTALS WILL CERTAINLY BE LIGHT AS DEEPER FORCING CONTINUES TO THE
EAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME HALF INCH OR BIT MORE AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY THE TIME IT ENDS ON MONDAY EVENING.
DESPITE THE WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH NEW SNOWFALL TO CREATE
ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES...AND THE OLDER SNOW WILL BE WELL CRUSTED
FROM WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

FOR THE CRITICAL THANKSGIVING TRAVEL TIME...BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER WAVE PATTERN IS THERE IN
A GENERAL SENSE...BUT THE IMPORTANT DETAILS ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT.
MOST SOLUTIONS INDICATE A FAIRLY DISTINCT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
FROM NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT GFS IS ABOUT 6-9
HOURS QUICKER THAN EC/CANADIAN. TUESDAY WILL PUT CWA INTO A WARMER
SECTOR OF WAVE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS PUSH INTO THE 35 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. HAVE PUSHED UP
TIMING FOR A BURST OF SNOWFALL WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE
TUESDAY NIGHT... BUT WITH THE STRONGER AND DEEPER FORCING
REMAINING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...HAVE KEPT THINGS AS A
CHANCE POP FOR THE TIME. THIS IS WHERE THINGS START TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH EC SO AMPLIFIED WITH THIS CLIPPER WAVE THAT
THE THERMAL BOUNDARY IS DRIVEN SO FAR SOUTHWARD THAT ARCTIC RIDGE
TAKES OVER AND IS SIMPLY COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...GFS LEAST SO...AND THEN
FIND APPROACH OF THE NEXT SUBTLE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO INTERACT WITH THERMAL RIBBON...RESULTING IN
A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...EITHER MAINLY
NORTH PER 00Z GFS...OR THROUGH THE HEART PER 06Z GFS...OR THE
MISSOURI VALLEY PER CANADIAN. QPF/SNOW RATIOS OF 18-20/1 WOULD
BRING PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN A WORST CASE AT THIS
POINT. COULD NOT GET A REGIONAL CONSENSUS ON INTRODUCING POPS WITH
INITIALIZATION GRIDS SUB MEASURABLE FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...SO HAVE DEFERRED TO LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES
GUIDANCE CONVERGES ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE REASONABLE POPS. ARCTIC
HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THANKSGIVING TO GIVE TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...WITH A LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING BACK THE LOW CEILINGS AND FOG TONIGHT.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...BOUNDARY SHOULD FLUSH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT LEADING TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 221742
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1142 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST FROM NW IA INTO PART OF SW MN
INTO THE LATE MORNING WHEN LOW LEVEL SWRLY FLOW AND SOME
WARMING WILL BE SWEEPING IT OUT. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO GET
MARGINALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAD NOT
DEVELOPED...AND WITH A CONTINUING DECENT LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THAT AREA
SUSPECT WE WILL NOT NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT OF COURSE WILL
MONITOR NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME VERY PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST BUT DRIER AIR NOT MUCH ABOVE THE
SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH. ASIDE FROM SOME STRATUS LINGERING
FAR EAST INTO PERHAPS THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL BE
MILD WITH A DECENT ROUND OF SNOWMELT. UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST LOOKS GOOD FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT WE EXPECT THAT THE STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP SOUTHEAST AS
HIGHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL LIFT FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY DRY
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY THE AIR BEING DRY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
PRECIPITATION THIS WAY THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE INCREASE IN
LOW CLOUDS AND THEIR DEPTH OVER NORTHWEST IOWA SUGGESTS SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT THAT INCREASED DEPTH ALSO SUGGESTS
DROPLETS COULD BE BIG ENOUGH FOR MINIMALLY MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN...AND SINCE WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING LOW POPS...WILL CONTINUE
THEM FOR LATE TONIGHT...EVEN THOUGH MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAIN
SEEMS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH AREAS IN
SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 MAYBE COOLING A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW FREEZING. UNSURE OF THE DEGREE OF LATE NIGHT MIXING WITH
APPROACHING SYSTEM SO WILL NOT GET CUTE WITH ANY SUDDEN TEMPERATURE
JUMPS...BUT THEY COULD HAPPEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

DOMINANT FOCUS OF THE START OF THE LONGER TERM IS EVOLUTION OF THE
STRONG SYSTEM TO THE EAST HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY COMPONENT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...AT
LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT FOR SOME EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION AS VARIOUS
DEGREE OF SHARPNESS TO TROUGH BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
IF NOT FOR A FEW MODELS/RUNS INDICATING THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE
ACTUALLY UNDERGOING WEAKENING HEADING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING...WOULD JUSTIFY PERHAPS STRONGER ON THE POPS FOR THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BIT OF CONCERN ON PRECIPITATION
TYPE POTENTIAL WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS ALOFT BATTLING WHAT IS
CERTAIN TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT WET BULB IMPACT. PROBABLY A MIX OF
RAIN OR SNOW...OR EVEN ALL LIGHT SNOW IF CAN GET A BIT MORE
INTENSE OR BANDED PER NAM TYPE SOLUTION. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT...WILL LIKELY FIND A MURKY MESS
OF LOWER CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL GET QUICKLY SHOVED ASIDE BY SHIFT IN
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. INITIALLY NOT A VERY STRONG COLD PUSH...
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL REALLY START TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A 6-8C DROP IN 925 HPA
TEMPS LIMITING MIXING BY MIDDAY NORTHWEST...MID AFTERNOON CENTRAL...
AND LATE DAY SOUTHEAST CWA...AND MOST CERTAINLY ENDING WITH A MORE
THAN TYPICAL LATE DAY DROP. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
MPH BY LATE DAY OVER MUCH OF SE SD.

OVERNIGHT IS WHEN THE MERGING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY OCCURS...BUT WILL BE TO THE EAST...AND IMPACT WILL
BE MAINLY TO THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS FAR STRONGER
WITH CYCLOGENESIS...SOMEWHAT FURTHER EASTWARD. WHATEVER SOLUTION
IS MORE CORRECT IN THE END...OUR AREA IS SURE TO EXPERIENCE VERY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM 25 TO 45 MPH...AND A TENDENCY FOR THE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY PERIOD FOR SOME LIGHTER SNOWFALL TO CYCLE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SW MN. APPEARS THAT
TOTALS WILL CERTAINLY BE LIGHT AS DEEPER FORCING CONTINUES TO THE
EAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME HALF INCH OR BIT MORE AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY THE TIME IT ENDS ON MONDAY EVENING.
DESPITE THE WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH NEW SNOWFALL TO CREATE
ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES...AND THE OLDER SNOW WILL BE WELL CRUSTED
FROM WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

FOR THE CRITICAL THANKSGIVING TRAVEL TIME...BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER WAVE PATTERN IS THERE IN
A GENERAL SENSE...BUT THE IMPORTANT DETAILS ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT.
MOST SOLUTIONS INDICATE A FAIRLY DISTINCT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
FROM NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT GFS IS ABOUT 6-9
HOURS QUICKER THAN EC/CANADIAN. TUESDAY WILL PUT CWA INTO A WARMER
SECTOR OF WAVE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS PUSH INTO THE 35 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. HAVE PUSHED UP
TIMING FOR A BURST OF SNOWFALL WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE
TUESDAY NIGHT... BUT WITH THE STRONGER AND DEEPER FORCING
REMAINING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...HAVE KEPT THINGS AS A
CHANCE POP FOR THE TIME. THIS IS WHERE THINGS START TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH EC SO AMPLIFIED WITH THIS CLIPPER WAVE THAT
THE THERMAL BOUNDARY IS DRIVEN SO FAR SOUTHWARD THAT ARCTIC RIDGE
TAKES OVER AND IS SIMPLY COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...GFS LEAST SO...AND THEN
FIND APPROACH OF THE NEXT SUBTLE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO INTERACT WITH THERMAL RIBBON...RESULTING IN
A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...EITHER MAINLY
NORTH PER 00Z GFS...OR THROUGH THE HEART PER 06Z GFS...OR THE
MISSOURI VALLEY PER CANADIAN. QPF/SNOW RATIOS OF 18-20/1 WOULD
BRING PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN A WORST CASE AT THIS
POINT. COULD NOT GET A REGIONAL CONSENSUS ON INTRODUCING POPS WITH
INITIALIZATION GRIDS SUB MEASURABLE FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...SO HAVE DEFERRED TO LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES
GUIDANCE CONVERGES ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE REASONABLE POPS. ARCTIC
HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THANKSGIVING TO GIVE TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...WITH A LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING BACK THE LOW CEILINGS AND FOG TONIGHT.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...BOUNDARY SHOULD FLUSH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT LEADING TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KABR 221650 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1050 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY

AREA OF FOG MADE IT INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND HAVE ALREADY UPDATED ZFP/GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. ITS MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN HAMLIN...SOUTHERN DEUEL AND
FAR SOUTHEAST CODINGTON COUNTIES. NORTHWARD PROGRESSION HAS
STOPPED NOW THAT THE SUN IS OUT. BRANDT WEBCAM SHOWING RATHER
DENSE FOG AFFECTING I-29. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM
NICELY TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE CWA. NO CHANGES TO
FORECAST HIGHS AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL EFFECTS CLOUDS MAY HAVE ON TEMPS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

H925 TEMPERATURES RUN FROM +1 TO +6C THIS AM. A TROF DEVELOPS OUT
WEST TODAY...WHICH SHIFTS LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WITH
A SHALLOW INVERSION...WILL SEE A RAPID WARM UP WITH PLENTY OF SUN
TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD THANKS TO
EFFICIENT MIXING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES
FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY...INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. MIXED DOWN WINDS ON
THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WEST RIVER BY MID
AFTERNOON. A 12 TO 16MB PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES IN...WHICH WILL KEEP
WINDS UP. A 1035MB HIGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL KEEP
A GRADIENT IN PLACE...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES SHIFTING TOWARDS
MINNESOTA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MIXED DOWN WINDS CONTINUE TO TOP
OUT AROUND 50MPH WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTED TOWARDS EASTERN COUNTIES.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS BEST FORCING IS ELSEWHERE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN THE NAM SUGGEST A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO PRECIPITATION
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WRAP AROUND QPF COULD REMAIN IN THE EAST FOR
MONDAY. OUR CURRENT SNOW PACK...IF IT REMAINS...WILL
REFREEZE...HOWEVER WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WILL THEN SEE A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND GEM
ARE FASTER AND WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS LOOK TO INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING THE CWA.
THERE ARE THEN MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR THE
MID PART OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND GEM TRACK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SNOWY AND BREEZY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SNOW
AREA. THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OVER THE
AREA...WITH NO PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP A SMALL POP IN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST...WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
GFS AND GEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO TRICKY AS THEY WILL BE WARMER WITH THE
GFS/GEM SOLUTION AND MUCH COLDER IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS
MORNING...AFFECTING KPIR. THIS FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 15Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AFTER 06Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 221650 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1050 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY

AREA OF FOG MADE IT INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND HAVE ALREADY UPDATED ZFP/GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. ITS MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN HAMLIN...SOUTHERN DEUEL AND
FAR SOUTHEAST CODINGTON COUNTIES. NORTHWARD PROGRESSION HAS
STOPPED NOW THAT THE SUN IS OUT. BRANDT WEBCAM SHOWING RATHER
DENSE FOG AFFECTING I-29. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM
NICELY TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE CWA. NO CHANGES TO
FORECAST HIGHS AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL EFFECTS CLOUDS MAY HAVE ON TEMPS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

H925 TEMPERATURES RUN FROM +1 TO +6C THIS AM. A TROF DEVELOPS OUT
WEST TODAY...WHICH SHIFTS LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WITH
A SHALLOW INVERSION...WILL SEE A RAPID WARM UP WITH PLENTY OF SUN
TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD THANKS TO
EFFICIENT MIXING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES
FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY...INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. MIXED DOWN WINDS ON
THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WEST RIVER BY MID
AFTERNOON. A 12 TO 16MB PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES IN...WHICH WILL KEEP
WINDS UP. A 1035MB HIGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL KEEP
A GRADIENT IN PLACE...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES SHIFTING TOWARDS
MINNESOTA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MIXED DOWN WINDS CONTINUE TO TOP
OUT AROUND 50MPH WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTED TOWARDS EASTERN COUNTIES.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS BEST FORCING IS ELSEWHERE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN THE NAM SUGGEST A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO PRECIPITATION
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WRAP AROUND QPF COULD REMAIN IN THE EAST FOR
MONDAY. OUR CURRENT SNOW PACK...IF IT REMAINS...WILL
REFREEZE...HOWEVER WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WILL THEN SEE A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND GEM
ARE FASTER AND WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS LOOK TO INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING THE CWA.
THERE ARE THEN MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR THE
MID PART OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND GEM TRACK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SNOWY AND BREEZY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SNOW
AREA. THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OVER THE
AREA...WITH NO PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP A SMALL POP IN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST...WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
GFS AND GEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO TRICKY AS THEY WILL BE WARMER WITH THE
GFS/GEM SOLUTION AND MUCH COLDER IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS
MORNING...AFFECTING KPIR. THIS FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 15Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AFTER 06Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 221538
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
838 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

POTENT NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING OF UVM LOOKS OT BE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. GIVEN UPSTREAM OB TRENDS...WENT AHEAD
AND INCREASED POPS THIS AFTERNOON FAR NW. OTHERWISE...WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NW SD SUNDAY GIVEN
MOMENTUM/MIXING PROGS. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 LOOK LIKELY ACROSS
FAR NW SD...AND POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS RAPID CITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE LARGE
SCALE FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS MORNING.  WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW ARE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS PRODUCING SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CONTDVD...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ARE IN THE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR
NORTHERN ROCKIES. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ARE SEASONABLY MILD BUT WARM CONSIDERABLY TO THE WEST IN THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. A VIGOROUS FAST MOVING PACIFIC SHORT
WAVE WAS MOVING ONSHORE AT 09Z. A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN HAS PRETTY MUCH CUT OFF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD.

TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY.  THE APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM MID MORNING
ONWARD...BUT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST
A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.  A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLKHLS REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE DCVA FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AS THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN INITIALLY THEN BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW
AFTER 06Z AND BE ALL SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  DEPENDING ON
WHEN THE SWITCHOVER ACTUALLY OCCURS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLKHLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING COULD SEE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...THE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SPLITTING AND
SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS
EVOLUTION WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY ON
SUNDAY AS DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY FADE.
WIND SPEEDS MEETING HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS MOST AREAS. SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE WY AND PORTIONS OF FAR WRN
SD.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TYPE
OF AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING WARMER
AIR ADVECTING IN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED BACK TO A COLDER SOLUTION WHILE
THE 00Z ECM HAS TRENDED WARMER. WILL STICK WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE
OF ALL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. CHANCES FOR SHRA ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SHSN OVERNIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012-013-025-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KUNR 221538
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
838 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

POTENT NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING OF UVM LOOKS OT BE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. GIVEN UPSTREAM OB TRENDS...WENT AHEAD
AND INCREASED POPS THIS AFTERNOON FAR NW. OTHERWISE...WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NW SD SUNDAY GIVEN
MOMENTUM/MIXING PROGS. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 LOOK LIKELY ACROSS
FAR NW SD...AND POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS RAPID CITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE LARGE
SCALE FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS MORNING.  WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW ARE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS PRODUCING SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CONTDVD...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ARE IN THE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR
NORTHERN ROCKIES. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ARE SEASONABLY MILD BUT WARM CONSIDERABLY TO THE WEST IN THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. A VIGOROUS FAST MOVING PACIFIC SHORT
WAVE WAS MOVING ONSHORE AT 09Z. A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN HAS PRETTY MUCH CUT OFF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD.

TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY.  THE APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM MID MORNING
ONWARD...BUT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST
A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.  A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLKHLS REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE DCVA FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AS THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN INITIALLY THEN BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW
AFTER 06Z AND BE ALL SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  DEPENDING ON
WHEN THE SWITCHOVER ACTUALLY OCCURS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLKHLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING COULD SEE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...THE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SPLITTING AND
SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS
EVOLUTION WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY ON
SUNDAY AS DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY FADE.
WIND SPEEDS MEETING HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS MOST AREAS. SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE WY AND PORTIONS OF FAR WRN
SD.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TYPE
OF AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING WARMER
AIR ADVECTING IN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED BACK TO A COLDER SOLUTION WHILE
THE 00Z ECM HAS TRENDED WARMER. WILL STICK WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE
OF ALL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. CHANCES FOR SHRA ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SHSN OVERNIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012-013-025-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KFSD 221130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
530 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST FROM NW IA INTO PART OF SW MN
INTO THE LATE MORNING WHEN LOW LEVEL SWRLY FLOW AND SOME
WARMING WILL BE SWEEPING IT OUT. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO GET
MARGINALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAD NOT
DEVELOPED...AND WITH A CONTINUING DECENT LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THAT AREA
SUSPECT WE WILL NOT NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT OF COURSE WILL
MONITOR NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME VERY PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST BUT DRIER AIR NOT MUCH ABOVE THE
SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH. ASIDE FROM SOME STRATUS LINGERING
FAR EAST INTO PERHAPS THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL BE
MILD WITH A DECENT ROUND OF SNOWMELT. UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST LOOKS GOOD FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT WE EXPECT THAT THE STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP SOUTHEAST AS
HIGHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL LIFT FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY DRY
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY THE AIR BEING DRY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
PRECIPITATION THIS WAY THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE INCREASE IN
LOW CLOUDS AND THEIR DEPTH OVER NORTHWEST IOWA SUGGESTS SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT THAT INCREASED DEPTH ALSO SUGGESTS
DROPLETS COULD BE BIG ENOUGH FOR MINIMALLY MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN...AND SINCE WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING LOW POPS...WILL CONTINUE
THEM FOR LATE TONIGHT...EVEN THOUGH MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAIN
SEEMS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH AREAS IN
SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 MAYBE COOLING A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW FREEZING. UNSURE OF THE DEGREE OF LATE NIGHT MIXING WITH
APPROACHING SYSTEM SO WILL NOT GET CUTE WITH ANY SUDDEN TEMPERATURE
JUMPS...BUT THEY COULD HAPPEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

DOMINANT FOCUS OF THE START OF THE LONGER TERM IS EVOLUTION OF THE
STRONG SYSTEM TO THE EAST HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY COMPONENT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...AT
LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT FOR SOME EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION AS VARIOUS
DEGREE OF SHARPNESS TO TROUGH BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
IF NOT FOR A FEW MODELS/RUNS INDICATING THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE
ACTUALLY UNDERGOING WEAKENING HEADING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING...WOULD JUSTIFY PERHAPS STRONGER ON THE POPS FOR THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BIT OF CONCERN ON PRECIPITATION
TYPE POTENTIAL WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS ALOFT BATTLING WHAT IS
CERTAIN TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT WET BULB IMPACT. PROBABLY A MIX OF
RAIN OR SNOW...OR EVEN ALL LIGHT SNOW IF CAN GET A BIT MORE
INTENSE OR BANDED PER NAM TYPE SOLUTION. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT...WILL LIKELY FIND A MURKY MESS
OF LOWER CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL GET QUICKLY SHOVED ASIDE BY SHIFT IN
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. INITIALLY NOT A VERY STRONG COLD PUSH...
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL REALLY START TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A 6-8C DROP IN 925 HPA
TEMPS LIMITING MIXING BY MIDDAY NORTHWEST...MID AFTERNOON CENTRAL...
AND LATE DAY SOUTHEAST CWA...AND MOST CERTAINLY ENDING WITH A MORE
THAN TYPICAL LATE DAY DROP. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
MPH BY LATE DAY OVER MUCH OF SE SD.

OVERNIGHT IS WHEN THE MERGING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY OCCURS...BUT WILL BE TO THE EAST...AND IMPACT WILL
BE MAINLY TO THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS FAR STRONGER
WITH CYCLOGENESIS...SOMEWHAT FURTHER EASTWARD. WHATEVER SOLUTION
IS MORE CORRECT IN THE END...OUR AREA IS SURE TO EXPERIENCE VERY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM 25 TO 45 MPH...AND A TENDENCY FOR THE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY PERIOD FOR SOME LIGHTER SNOWFALL TO CYCLE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SW MN. APPEARS THAT
TOTALS WILL CERTAINLY BE LIGHT AS DEEPER FORCING CONTINUES TO THE
EAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME HALF INCH OR BIT MORE AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY THE TIME IT ENDS ON MONDAY EVENING.
DESPITE THE WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH NEW SNOWFALL TO CREATE
ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES...AND THE OLDER SNOW WILL BE WELL CRUSTED
FROM WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

FOR THE CRITICAL THANKSGIVING TRAVEL TIME...BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER WAVE PATTERN IS THERE IN
A GENERAL SENSE...BUT THE IMPORTANT DETAILS ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT.
MOST SOLUTIONS INDICATE A FAIRLY DISTINCT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
FROM NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT GFS IS ABOUT 6-9
HOURS QUICKER THAN EC/CANADIAN. TUESDAY WILL PUT CWA INTO A WARMER
SECTOR OF WAVE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS PUSH INTO THE 35 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. HAVE PUSHED UP
TIMING FOR A BURST OF SNOWFALL WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE
TUESDAY NIGHT... BUT WITH THE STRONGER AND DEEPER FORCING
REMAINING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...HAVE KEPT THINGS AS A
CHANCE POP FOR THE TIME. THIS IS WHERE THINGS START TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH EC SO AMPLIFIED WITH THIS CLIPPER WAVE THAT
THE THERMAL BOUNDARY IS DRIVEN SO FAR SOUTHWARD THAT ARCTIC RIDGE
TAKES OVER AND IS SIMPLY COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...GFS LEAST SO...AND THEN
FIND APPROACH OF THE NEXT SUBTLE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO INTERACT WITH THERMAL RIBBON...RESULTING IN
A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...EITHER MAINLY
NORTH PER 00Z GFS...OR THROUGH THE HEART PER 06Z GFS...OR THE
MISSOURI VALLEY PER CANADIAN. QPF/SNOW RATIOS OF 18-20/1 WOULD
BRING PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN A WORST CASE AT THIS
POINT. COULD NOT GET A REGIONAL CONSENSUS ON INTRODUCING POPS WITH
INITIALIZATION GRIDS SUB MEASURABLE FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...SO HAVE DEFERRED TO LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES
GUIDANCE CONVERGES ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE REASONABLE POPS. ARCTIC
HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THANKSGIVING TO GIVE TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...WITH A LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND VISIBILITY BELOW 3SM IN FOG ALONG AND
EAST OF A SUX/FSD/MML LINE...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 17Z. WEST OF A
SUX/FSD/MMML LINE VFR. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
23/06Z. FROM 23/06Z-12Z CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND VISIBILITIES
BELOW 3SM IN FOG ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST IA
INCLUDING SUX TAF SITE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ080-081-
     089-090-098.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ001>003-
     012>014-021-022-032.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 221130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
530 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST FROM NW IA INTO PART OF SW MN
INTO THE LATE MORNING WHEN LOW LEVEL SWRLY FLOW AND SOME
WARMING WILL BE SWEEPING IT OUT. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO GET
MARGINALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAD NOT
DEVELOPED...AND WITH A CONTINUING DECENT LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THAT AREA
SUSPECT WE WILL NOT NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT OF COURSE WILL
MONITOR NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME VERY PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST BUT DRIER AIR NOT MUCH ABOVE THE
SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH. ASIDE FROM SOME STRATUS LINGERING
FAR EAST INTO PERHAPS THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL BE
MILD WITH A DECENT ROUND OF SNOWMELT. UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST LOOKS GOOD FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT WE EXPECT THAT THE STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP SOUTHEAST AS
HIGHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL LIFT FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY DRY
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY THE AIR BEING DRY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
PRECIPITATION THIS WAY THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE INCREASE IN
LOW CLOUDS AND THEIR DEPTH OVER NORTHWEST IOWA SUGGESTS SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT THAT INCREASED DEPTH ALSO SUGGESTS
DROPLETS COULD BE BIG ENOUGH FOR MINIMALLY MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN...AND SINCE WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING LOW POPS...WILL CONTINUE
THEM FOR LATE TONIGHT...EVEN THOUGH MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAIN
SEEMS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH AREAS IN
SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 MAYBE COOLING A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW FREEZING. UNSURE OF THE DEGREE OF LATE NIGHT MIXING WITH
APPROACHING SYSTEM SO WILL NOT GET CUTE WITH ANY SUDDEN TEMPERATURE
JUMPS...BUT THEY COULD HAPPEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

DOMINANT FOCUS OF THE START OF THE LONGER TERM IS EVOLUTION OF THE
STRONG SYSTEM TO THE EAST HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY COMPONENT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...AT
LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT FOR SOME EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION AS VARIOUS
DEGREE OF SHARPNESS TO TROUGH BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
IF NOT FOR A FEW MODELS/RUNS INDICATING THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE
ACTUALLY UNDERGOING WEAKENING HEADING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING...WOULD JUSTIFY PERHAPS STRONGER ON THE POPS FOR THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BIT OF CONCERN ON PRECIPITATION
TYPE POTENTIAL WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS ALOFT BATTLING WHAT IS
CERTAIN TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT WET BULB IMPACT. PROBABLY A MIX OF
RAIN OR SNOW...OR EVEN ALL LIGHT SNOW IF CAN GET A BIT MORE
INTENSE OR BANDED PER NAM TYPE SOLUTION. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT...WILL LIKELY FIND A MURKY MESS
OF LOWER CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL GET QUICKLY SHOVED ASIDE BY SHIFT IN
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. INITIALLY NOT A VERY STRONG COLD PUSH...
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL REALLY START TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A 6-8C DROP IN 925 HPA
TEMPS LIMITING MIXING BY MIDDAY NORTHWEST...MID AFTERNOON CENTRAL...
AND LATE DAY SOUTHEAST CWA...AND MOST CERTAINLY ENDING WITH A MORE
THAN TYPICAL LATE DAY DROP. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
MPH BY LATE DAY OVER MUCH OF SE SD.

OVERNIGHT IS WHEN THE MERGING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY OCCURS...BUT WILL BE TO THE EAST...AND IMPACT WILL
BE MAINLY TO THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS FAR STRONGER
WITH CYCLOGENESIS...SOMEWHAT FURTHER EASTWARD. WHATEVER SOLUTION
IS MORE CORRECT IN THE END...OUR AREA IS SURE TO EXPERIENCE VERY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM 25 TO 45 MPH...AND A TENDENCY FOR THE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY PERIOD FOR SOME LIGHTER SNOWFALL TO CYCLE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SW MN. APPEARS THAT
TOTALS WILL CERTAINLY BE LIGHT AS DEEPER FORCING CONTINUES TO THE
EAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME HALF INCH OR BIT MORE AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY THE TIME IT ENDS ON MONDAY EVENING.
DESPITE THE WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH NEW SNOWFALL TO CREATE
ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES...AND THE OLDER SNOW WILL BE WELL CRUSTED
FROM WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

FOR THE CRITICAL THANKSGIVING TRAVEL TIME...BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER WAVE PATTERN IS THERE IN
A GENERAL SENSE...BUT THE IMPORTANT DETAILS ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT.
MOST SOLUTIONS INDICATE A FAIRLY DISTINCT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
FROM NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT GFS IS ABOUT 6-9
HOURS QUICKER THAN EC/CANADIAN. TUESDAY WILL PUT CWA INTO A WARMER
SECTOR OF WAVE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS PUSH INTO THE 35 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. HAVE PUSHED UP
TIMING FOR A BURST OF SNOWFALL WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE
TUESDAY NIGHT... BUT WITH THE STRONGER AND DEEPER FORCING
REMAINING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...HAVE KEPT THINGS AS A
CHANCE POP FOR THE TIME. THIS IS WHERE THINGS START TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH EC SO AMPLIFIED WITH THIS CLIPPER WAVE THAT
THE THERMAL BOUNDARY IS DRIVEN SO FAR SOUTHWARD THAT ARCTIC RIDGE
TAKES OVER AND IS SIMPLY COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...GFS LEAST SO...AND THEN
FIND APPROACH OF THE NEXT SUBTLE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO INTERACT WITH THERMAL RIBBON...RESULTING IN
A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...EITHER MAINLY
NORTH PER 00Z GFS...OR THROUGH THE HEART PER 06Z GFS...OR THE
MISSOURI VALLEY PER CANADIAN. QPF/SNOW RATIOS OF 18-20/1 WOULD
BRING PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN A WORST CASE AT THIS
POINT. COULD NOT GET A REGIONAL CONSENSUS ON INTRODUCING POPS WITH
INITIALIZATION GRIDS SUB MEASURABLE FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...SO HAVE DEFERRED TO LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES
GUIDANCE CONVERGES ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE REASONABLE POPS. ARCTIC
HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THANKSGIVING TO GIVE TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...WITH A LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND VISIBILITY BELOW 3SM IN FOG ALONG AND
EAST OF A SUX/FSD/MML LINE...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 17Z. WEST OF A
SUX/FSD/MMML LINE VFR. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
23/06Z. FROM 23/06Z-12Z CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND VISIBILITIES
BELOW 3SM IN FOG ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST IA
INCLUDING SUX TAF SITE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ080-081-
     089-090-098.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ001>003-
     012>014-021-022-032.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KABR 221125 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
525 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
H925 TEMPERATURES RUN FROM +1 TO +6C THIS AM. A TROF DEVELOPS OUT
WEST TODAY...WHICH SHIFTS LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WITH
A SHALLOW INVERSION...WILL SEE A RAPID WARM UP WITH PLENTY OF SUN
TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD THANKS TO
EFFICIENT MIXING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES
FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY...INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. MIXED DOWN WINDS ON
THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WEST RIVER BY MID
AFTERNOON. A 12 TO 16MB PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES IN...WHICH WILL KEEP
WINDS UP. A 1035MB HIGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL KEEP
A GRADIENT IN PLACE...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES SHIFTING TOWARDS
MINNESOTA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MIXED DOWN WINDS CONTINUE TO TOP
OUT AROUND 50MPH WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTED TOWARDS EASTERN COUNTIES.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS BEST FORCING IS ELSEWHERE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN THE NAM SUGGEST A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO PRECIPITATION
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WRAP AROUND QPF COULD REMAIN IN THE EAST FOR
MONDAY. OUR CURRENT SNOW PACK...IF IT REMAINS...WILL
REFREEZE...HOWEVER WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WILL THEN SEE A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND GEM
ARE FASTER AND WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS LOOK TO INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING THE CWA.
THERE ARE THEN MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR THE
MID PART OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND GEM TRACK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SNOWY AND BREEZY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SNOW
AREA. THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OVER THE
AREA...WITH NO PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP A SMALL POP IN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST...WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
GFS AND GEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO TRICKY AS THEY WILL BE WARMER WITH THE
GFS/GEM SOLUTION AND MUCH COLDER IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS
MORNING...AFFECTING KPIR. THIS FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 15Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AFTER 06Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 221125 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
525 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
H925 TEMPERATURES RUN FROM +1 TO +6C THIS AM. A TROF DEVELOPS OUT
WEST TODAY...WHICH SHIFTS LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WITH
A SHALLOW INVERSION...WILL SEE A RAPID WARM UP WITH PLENTY OF SUN
TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD THANKS TO
EFFICIENT MIXING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES
FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY...INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. MIXED DOWN WINDS ON
THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WEST RIVER BY MID
AFTERNOON. A 12 TO 16MB PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES IN...WHICH WILL KEEP
WINDS UP. A 1035MB HIGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL KEEP
A GRADIENT IN PLACE...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES SHIFTING TOWARDS
MINNESOTA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MIXED DOWN WINDS CONTINUE TO TOP
OUT AROUND 50MPH WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTED TOWARDS EASTERN COUNTIES.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS BEST FORCING IS ELSEWHERE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN THE NAM SUGGEST A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO PRECIPITATION
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WRAP AROUND QPF COULD REMAIN IN THE EAST FOR
MONDAY. OUR CURRENT SNOW PACK...IF IT REMAINS...WILL
REFREEZE...HOWEVER WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WILL THEN SEE A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND GEM
ARE FASTER AND WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS LOOK TO INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING THE CWA.
THERE ARE THEN MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR THE
MID PART OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND GEM TRACK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SNOWY AND BREEZY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SNOW
AREA. THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OVER THE
AREA...WITH NO PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP A SMALL POP IN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST...WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
GFS AND GEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO TRICKY AS THEY WILL BE WARMER WITH THE
GFS/GEM SOLUTION AND MUCH COLDER IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS
MORNING...AFFECTING KPIR. THIS FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 15Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AFTER 06Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 221019
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
419 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST FROM NW IA INTO PART OF SW MN
INTO THE LATE MORNING WHEN LOW LEVEL SWRLY FLOW AND SOME
WARMING WILL BE SWEEPING IT OUT. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO GET
MARGINALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAD NOT
DEVELOPED...AND WITH A CONTINUING DECENT LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THAT AREA
SUSPECT WE WILL NOT NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT OF COURSE WILL
MONITOR NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME VERY PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST BUT DRIER AIR NOT MUCH ABOVE THE
SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH. ASIDE FROM SOME STRATUS LINGERING
FAR EAST INTO PERHAPS THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL BE
MILD WITH A DECENT ROUND OF SNOWMELT. UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST LOOKS GOOD FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT WE EXPECT THAT THE STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP SOUTHEAST AS
HIGHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL LIFT FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY DRY
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY THE AIR BEING DRY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
PRECIPITATION THIS WAY THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE INCREASE IN
LOW CLOUDS AND THEIR DEPTH OVER NORTHWEST IOWA SUGGESTS SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT THAT INCREASED DEPTH ALSO SUGGESTS
DROPLETS COULD BE BIG ENOUGH FOR MINIMALLY MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN...AND SINCE WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING LOW POPS...WILL CONTINUE
THEM FOR LATE TONIGHT...EVEN THOUGH MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAIN
SEEMS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH AREAS IN
SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 MAYBE COOLING A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW FREEZING. UNSURE OF THE DEGREE OF LATE NIGHT MIXING WITH
APPROACHING SYSTEM SO WILL NOT GET CUTE WITH ANY SUDDEN TEMPERATURE
JUMPS...BUT THEY COULD HAPPEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

DOMINANT FOCUS OF THE START OF THE LONGER TERM IS EVOLUTION OF THE
STRONG SYSTEM TO THE EAST HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY COMPONENT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...AT
LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT FOR SOME EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION AS VARIOUS
DEGREE OF SHARPNESS TO TROUGH BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
IF NOT FOR A FEW MODELS/RUNS INDICATING THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE
ACTUALLY UNDERGOING WEAKENING HEADING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING...WOULD JUSTIFY PERHAPS STRONGER ON THE POPS FOR THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BIT OF CONCERN ON PRECIPITATION
TYPE POTENTIAL WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS ALOFT BATTLING WHAT IS
CERTAIN TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT WET BULB IMPACT. PROBABLY A MIX OF
RAIN OR SNOW...OR EVEN ALL LIGHT SNOW IF CAN GET A BIT MORE
INTENSE OR BANDED PER NAM TYPE SOLUTION. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT...WILL LIKELY FIND A MURKY MESS
OF LOWER CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL GET QUICKLY SHOVED ASIDE BY SHIFT IN
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. INITIALLY NOT A VERY STRONG COLD PUSH...
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL REALLY START TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A 6-8C DROP IN 925 HPA
TEMPS LIMITING MIXING BY MIDDAY NORTHWEST...MID AFTERNOON CENTRAL...
AND LATE DAY SOUTHEAST CWA...AND MOST CERTAINLY ENDING WITH A MORE
THAN TYPICAL LATE DAY DROP. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
MPH BY LATE DAY OVER MUCH OF SE SD.

OVERNIGHT IS WHEN THE MERGING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY OCCURS...BUT WILL BE TO THE EAST...AND IMPACT WILL
BE MAINLY TO THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS FAR STRONGER
WITH CYCLOGENESIS...SOMEWHAT FURTHER EASTWARD. WHATEVER SOLUTION
IS MORE CORRECT IN THE END...OUR AREA IS SURE TO EXPERIENCE VERY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM 25 TO 45 MPH...AND A TENDENCY FOR THE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY PERIOD FOR SOME LIGHTER SNOWFALL TO CYCLE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SW MN. APPEARS THAT
TOTALS WILL CERTAINLY BE LIGHT AS DEEPER FORCING CONTINUES TO THE
EAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME HALF INCH OR BIT MORE AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY THE TIME IT ENDS ON MONDAY EVENING.
DESPITE THE WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH NEW SNOWFALL TO CREATE
ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES...AND THE OLDER SNOW WILL BE WELL CRUSTED
FROM WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

FOR THE CRITICAL THANKSGIVING TRAVEL TIME...BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER WAVE PATTERN IS THERE IN
A GENERAL SENSE...BUT THE IMPORTANT DETAILS ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT.
MOST SOLUTIONS INDICATE A FAIRLY DISTINCT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
FROM NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT GFS IS ABOUT 6-9
HOURS QUICKER THAN EC/CANADIAN. TUESDAY WILL PUT CWA INTO A WARMER
SECTOR OF WAVE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS PUSH INTO THE 35 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. HAVE PUSHED UP
TIMING FOR A BURST OF SNOWFALL WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE
TUESDAY NIGHT... BUT WITH THE STRONGER AND DEEPER FORCING
REMAINING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...HAVE KEPT THINGS AS A
CHANCE POP FOR THE TIME. THIS IS WHERE THINGS START TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH EC SO AMPLIFIED WITH THIS CLIPPER WAVE THAT
THE THERMAL BOUNDARY IS DRIVEN SO FAR SOUTHWARD THAT ARCTIC RIDGE
TAKES OVER AND IS SIMPLY COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...GFS LEAST SO...AND THEN
FIND APPROACH OF THE NEXT SUBTLE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO INTERACT WITH THERMAL RIBBON...RESULTING IN
A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...EITHER MAINLY
NORTH PER 00Z GFS...OR THROUGH THE HEART PER 06Z GFS...OR THE
MISSOURI VALLEY PER CANADIAN. QPF/SNOW RATIOS OF 18-20/1 WOULD
BRING PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN A WORST CASE AT THIS
POINT. COULD NOT GET A REGIONAL CONSENSUS ON INTRODUCING POPS WITH
INITIALIZATION GRIDS SUB MEASURABLE FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...SO HAVE DEFERRED TO LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES
GUIDANCE CONVERGES ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE REASONABLE POPS. ARCTIC
HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THANKSGIVING TO GIVE TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...WITH A LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN A CHALLENGE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
PRETTY CONFIDENT KHON REMAINS VFR...BUT STRATUS AND FOG CONCERNS
REMAIN EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WATCHING LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE REGION...WITH MVFR CIGS INTO
KSUX. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM OBS...THINK THEY WILL
EVENTUALLY GET CIGS BELOW 500 FEET...AND COULD POSSIBLY ALSO SEE
DENSE FOG. LESS CERTAIN ABOUT KFSD...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE
WEST EDGE OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR
WILL KEEP IFR CIGS INTO KFSD LATER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WHAT IS ALSO UNCERTAIN IS HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS
AND FOG EXITS TOMORROW. STAYED ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR NOW GIVEN
LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LOW CIGS AND VIS
STICK AROUND LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS WINDS WILL STAY OUT
OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.

SO IN SUMMARY...AT THE LEAST THINK NORTHWEST IOWA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL SEE LOW STRATUS AND POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. THIS COULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS THE
INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR. FOR NOW HAVE IMPROVEMENTS BY MID
MORNING...BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS DEFINITELY THERE THAT THESE
CONDITIONS LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OR EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 221019
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
419 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST FROM NW IA INTO PART OF SW MN
INTO THE LATE MORNING WHEN LOW LEVEL SWRLY FLOW AND SOME
WARMING WILL BE SWEEPING IT OUT. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO GET
MARGINALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAD NOT
DEVELOPED...AND WITH A CONTINUING DECENT LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THAT AREA
SUSPECT WE WILL NOT NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT OF COURSE WILL
MONITOR NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME VERY PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST BUT DRIER AIR NOT MUCH ABOVE THE
SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH. ASIDE FROM SOME STRATUS LINGERING
FAR EAST INTO PERHAPS THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL BE
MILD WITH A DECENT ROUND OF SNOWMELT. UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST LOOKS GOOD FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT WE EXPECT THAT THE STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP SOUTHEAST AS
HIGHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL LIFT FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY DRY
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY THE AIR BEING DRY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
PRECIPITATION THIS WAY THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE INCREASE IN
LOW CLOUDS AND THEIR DEPTH OVER NORTHWEST IOWA SUGGESTS SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT THAT INCREASED DEPTH ALSO SUGGESTS
DROPLETS COULD BE BIG ENOUGH FOR MINIMALLY MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN...AND SINCE WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING LOW POPS...WILL CONTINUE
THEM FOR LATE TONIGHT...EVEN THOUGH MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAIN
SEEMS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH AREAS IN
SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 MAYBE COOLING A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW FREEZING. UNSURE OF THE DEGREE OF LATE NIGHT MIXING WITH
APPROACHING SYSTEM SO WILL NOT GET CUTE WITH ANY SUDDEN TEMPERATURE
JUMPS...BUT THEY COULD HAPPEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

DOMINANT FOCUS OF THE START OF THE LONGER TERM IS EVOLUTION OF THE
STRONG SYSTEM TO THE EAST HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY COMPONENT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...AT
LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT FOR SOME EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION AS VARIOUS
DEGREE OF SHARPNESS TO TROUGH BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
IF NOT FOR A FEW MODELS/RUNS INDICATING THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE
ACTUALLY UNDERGOING WEAKENING HEADING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING...WOULD JUSTIFY PERHAPS STRONGER ON THE POPS FOR THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BIT OF CONCERN ON PRECIPITATION
TYPE POTENTIAL WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS ALOFT BATTLING WHAT IS
CERTAIN TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT WET BULB IMPACT. PROBABLY A MIX OF
RAIN OR SNOW...OR EVEN ALL LIGHT SNOW IF CAN GET A BIT MORE
INTENSE OR BANDED PER NAM TYPE SOLUTION. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT...WILL LIKELY FIND A MURKY MESS
OF LOWER CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL GET QUICKLY SHOVED ASIDE BY SHIFT IN
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. INITIALLY NOT A VERY STRONG COLD PUSH...
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL REALLY START TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A 6-8C DROP IN 925 HPA
TEMPS LIMITING MIXING BY MIDDAY NORTHWEST...MID AFTERNOON CENTRAL...
AND LATE DAY SOUTHEAST CWA...AND MOST CERTAINLY ENDING WITH A MORE
THAN TYPICAL LATE DAY DROP. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
MPH BY LATE DAY OVER MUCH OF SE SD.

OVERNIGHT IS WHEN THE MERGING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY OCCURS...BUT WILL BE TO THE EAST...AND IMPACT WILL
BE MAINLY TO THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS FAR STRONGER
WITH CYCLOGENESIS...SOMEWHAT FURTHER EASTWARD. WHATEVER SOLUTION
IS MORE CORRECT IN THE END...OUR AREA IS SURE TO EXPERIENCE VERY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM 25 TO 45 MPH...AND A TENDENCY FOR THE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY PERIOD FOR SOME LIGHTER SNOWFALL TO CYCLE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SW MN. APPEARS THAT
TOTALS WILL CERTAINLY BE LIGHT AS DEEPER FORCING CONTINUES TO THE
EAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME HALF INCH OR BIT MORE AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY THE TIME IT ENDS ON MONDAY EVENING.
DESPITE THE WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH NEW SNOWFALL TO CREATE
ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES...AND THE OLDER SNOW WILL BE WELL CRUSTED
FROM WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

FOR THE CRITICAL THANKSGIVING TRAVEL TIME...BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER WAVE PATTERN IS THERE IN
A GENERAL SENSE...BUT THE IMPORTANT DETAILS ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT.
MOST SOLUTIONS INDICATE A FAIRLY DISTINCT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
FROM NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT GFS IS ABOUT 6-9
HOURS QUICKER THAN EC/CANADIAN. TUESDAY WILL PUT CWA INTO A WARMER
SECTOR OF WAVE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS PUSH INTO THE 35 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. HAVE PUSHED UP
TIMING FOR A BURST OF SNOWFALL WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE
TUESDAY NIGHT... BUT WITH THE STRONGER AND DEEPER FORCING
REMAINING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...HAVE KEPT THINGS AS A
CHANCE POP FOR THE TIME. THIS IS WHERE THINGS START TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH EC SO AMPLIFIED WITH THIS CLIPPER WAVE THAT
THE THERMAL BOUNDARY IS DRIVEN SO FAR SOUTHWARD THAT ARCTIC RIDGE
TAKES OVER AND IS SIMPLY COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...GFS LEAST SO...AND THEN
FIND APPROACH OF THE NEXT SUBTLE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO INTERACT WITH THERMAL RIBBON...RESULTING IN
A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...EITHER MAINLY
NORTH PER 00Z GFS...OR THROUGH THE HEART PER 06Z GFS...OR THE
MISSOURI VALLEY PER CANADIAN. QPF/SNOW RATIOS OF 18-20/1 WOULD
BRING PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN A WORST CASE AT THIS
POINT. COULD NOT GET A REGIONAL CONSENSUS ON INTRODUCING POPS WITH
INITIALIZATION GRIDS SUB MEASURABLE FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...SO HAVE DEFERRED TO LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES
GUIDANCE CONVERGES ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE REASONABLE POPS. ARCTIC
HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THANKSGIVING TO GIVE TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...WITH A LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN A CHALLENGE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
PRETTY CONFIDENT KHON REMAINS VFR...BUT STRATUS AND FOG CONCERNS
REMAIN EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WATCHING LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE REGION...WITH MVFR CIGS INTO
KSUX. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM OBS...THINK THEY WILL
EVENTUALLY GET CIGS BELOW 500 FEET...AND COULD POSSIBLY ALSO SEE
DENSE FOG. LESS CERTAIN ABOUT KFSD...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE
WEST EDGE OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR
WILL KEEP IFR CIGS INTO KFSD LATER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WHAT IS ALSO UNCERTAIN IS HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS
AND FOG EXITS TOMORROW. STAYED ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR NOW GIVEN
LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LOW CIGS AND VIS
STICK AROUND LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS WINDS WILL STAY OUT
OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.

SO IN SUMMARY...AT THE LEAST THINK NORTHWEST IOWA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL SEE LOW STRATUS AND POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. THIS COULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS THE
INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR. FOR NOW HAVE IMPROVEMENTS BY MID
MORNING...BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS DEFINITELY THERE THAT THESE
CONDITIONS LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OR EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KUNR 221002
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
302 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE LARGE
SCALE FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS MORNING.  WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW ARE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS PRODUCING SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CONTDVD...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ARE IN THE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR
NORTHERN ROCKIES. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ARE SEASONABLY MILD BUT WARM CONSIDERABLY TO THE WEST IN THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. A VIGOROUS FAST MOVING PACIFIC SHORT
WAVE WAS MOVING ONSHORE AT 09Z. A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN HAS PRETTY MUCH CUT OFF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD.

TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY.  THE APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM MID MORNING
ONWARD...BUT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST
A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.  A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLKHLS REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE DCVA FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AS THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN INITIALLY THEN BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW
AFTER 06Z AND BE ALL SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  DEPENDING ON
WHEN THE SWITCHOVER ACTUALLY OCCURS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLKHLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING COULD SEE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...THE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SPLITTING AND
SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS
EVOLUTION WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY ON
SUNDAY AS DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY FADE.
WIND SPEEDS MEETING HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS MOST AREAS. SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE WY AND PORTIONS OF FAR WRN
SD.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TYPE
OF AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING WARMER
AIR ADVECTING IN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED BACK TO A COLDER SOLUTION WHILE
THE 00Z ECM HAS TRENDED WARMER. WILL STICK WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE
OF ALL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. CHANCES FOR SHRA ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SHSN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KUNR 221002
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
302 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE LARGE
SCALE FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS MORNING.  WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW ARE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS PRODUCING SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CONTDVD...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ARE IN THE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR
NORTHERN ROCKIES. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ARE SEASONABLY MILD BUT WARM CONSIDERABLY TO THE WEST IN THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. A VIGOROUS FAST MOVING PACIFIC SHORT
WAVE WAS MOVING ONSHORE AT 09Z. A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN HAS PRETTY MUCH CUT OFF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD.

TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY.  THE APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM MID MORNING
ONWARD...BUT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST
A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.  A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLKHLS REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE DCVA FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AS THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN INITIALLY THEN BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW
AFTER 06Z AND BE ALL SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  DEPENDING ON
WHEN THE SWITCHOVER ACTUALLY OCCURS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLKHLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING COULD SEE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...THE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SPLITTING AND
SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS
EVOLUTION WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY ON
SUNDAY AS DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY FADE.
WIND SPEEDS MEETING HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS MOST AREAS. SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE WY AND PORTIONS OF FAR WRN
SD.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TYPE
OF AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING WARMER
AIR ADVECTING IN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED BACK TO A COLDER SOLUTION WHILE
THE 00Z ECM HAS TRENDED WARMER. WILL STICK WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE
OF ALL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. CHANCES FOR SHRA ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SHSN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 221002
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
302 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE LARGE
SCALE FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS MORNING.  WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW ARE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS PRODUCING SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CONTDVD...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ARE IN THE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR
NORTHERN ROCKIES. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ARE SEASONABLY MILD BUT WARM CONSIDERABLY TO THE WEST IN THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. A VIGOROUS FAST MOVING PACIFIC SHORT
WAVE WAS MOVING ONSHORE AT 09Z. A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN HAS PRETTY MUCH CUT OFF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD.

TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY.  THE APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM MID MORNING
ONWARD...BUT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST
A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.  A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLKHLS REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE DCVA FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AS THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN INITIALLY THEN BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW
AFTER 06Z AND BE ALL SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  DEPENDING ON
WHEN THE SWITCHOVER ACTUALLY OCCURS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLKHLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING COULD SEE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...THE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SPLITTING AND
SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS
EVOLUTION WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY ON
SUNDAY AS DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY FADE.
WIND SPEEDS MEETING HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS MOST AREAS. SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE WY AND PORTIONS OF FAR WRN
SD.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TYPE
OF AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING WARMER
AIR ADVECTING IN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED BACK TO A COLDER SOLUTION WHILE
THE 00Z ECM HAS TRENDED WARMER. WILL STICK WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE
OF ALL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. CHANCES FOR SHRA ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SHSN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 221002
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
302 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE LARGE
SCALE FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS MORNING.  WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW ARE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS PRODUCING SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CONTDVD...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ARE IN THE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR
NORTHERN ROCKIES. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ARE SEASONABLY MILD BUT WARM CONSIDERABLY TO THE WEST IN THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. A VIGOROUS FAST MOVING PACIFIC SHORT
WAVE WAS MOVING ONSHORE AT 09Z. A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN HAS PRETTY MUCH CUT OFF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD.

TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY.  THE APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM MID MORNING
ONWARD...BUT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST
A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.  A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLKHLS REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE DCVA FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AS THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN INITIALLY THEN BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW
AFTER 06Z AND BE ALL SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  DEPENDING ON
WHEN THE SWITCHOVER ACTUALLY OCCURS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLKHLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING COULD SEE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...THE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SPLITTING AND
SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS
EVOLUTION WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY ON
SUNDAY AS DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY FADE.
WIND SPEEDS MEETING HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS MOST AREAS. SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE WY AND PORTIONS OF FAR WRN
SD.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TYPE
OF AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING WARMER
AIR ADVECTING IN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED BACK TO A COLDER SOLUTION WHILE
THE 00Z ECM HAS TRENDED WARMER. WILL STICK WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE
OF ALL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. CHANCES FOR SHRA ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SHSN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KABR 220942
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
342 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY

H925 TEMPERATURES RUN FROM +1 TO +6C THIS AM. A TROF DEVELOPS OUT
WEST TODAY...WHICH SHIFTS LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WITH
A SHALLOW INVERSION...WILL SEE A RAPID WARM UP WITH PLENTY OF SUN
TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD THANKS TO
EFFICIENT MIXING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES
FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY...INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. MIXED DOWN WINDS ON THE
ORDER OF 30 TO 40KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WEST RIVER BY MID
AFTERNOON. A 12 TO 16MB PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES IN...WHICH WILL KEEP
WINDS UP. A 1035MB HIGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL KEEP
A GRADIENT IN PLACE...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES SHIFTING TOWARDS
MINNESOTA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MIXED DOWN WINDS CONTINUE TO TOP
OUT AROUND 50MPH WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTED TOWARDS EASTERN COUNTIES.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS BEST FORCING IS ELSEWHERE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN THE NAM SUGGEST A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO PRECIPITATION
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WRAP AROUND QPF COULD REMAIN IN THE EAST FOR
MONDAY. OUR CURRENT SNOW PACK...IF IT REMAINS...WILL
REFREEZE...HOWEVER WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WILL THEN SEE A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND GEM
ARE FASTER AND WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS LOOK TO INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING THE CWA.
THERE ARE THEN MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR THE
MID PART OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND GEM TRACK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SNOWY AND BREEZY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SNOW
AREA. THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OVER THE
AREA...WITH NO PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP A SMALL POP IN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST...WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
GFS AND GEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO TRICKY AS THEY WILL BE WARMER WITH THE
GFS/GEM SOLUTION AND MUCH COLDER IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.











&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 220942
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
342 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY

H925 TEMPERATURES RUN FROM +1 TO +6C THIS AM. A TROF DEVELOPS OUT
WEST TODAY...WHICH SHIFTS LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WITH
A SHALLOW INVERSION...WILL SEE A RAPID WARM UP WITH PLENTY OF SUN
TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD THANKS TO
EFFICIENT MIXING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES
FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY...INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. MIXED DOWN WINDS ON THE
ORDER OF 30 TO 40KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WEST RIVER BY MID
AFTERNOON. A 12 TO 16MB PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES IN...WHICH WILL KEEP
WINDS UP. A 1035MB HIGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL KEEP
A GRADIENT IN PLACE...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES SHIFTING TOWARDS
MINNESOTA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MIXED DOWN WINDS CONTINUE TO TOP
OUT AROUND 50MPH WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTED TOWARDS EASTERN COUNTIES.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS BEST FORCING IS ELSEWHERE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN THE NAM SUGGEST A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO PRECIPITATION
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WRAP AROUND QPF COULD REMAIN IN THE EAST FOR
MONDAY. OUR CURRENT SNOW PACK...IF IT REMAINS...WILL
REFREEZE...HOWEVER WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WILL THEN SEE A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND GEM
ARE FASTER AND WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS LOOK TO INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING THE CWA.
THERE ARE THEN MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR THE
MID PART OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND GEM TRACK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SNOWY AND BREEZY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SNOW
AREA. THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OVER THE
AREA...WITH NO PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP A SMALL POP IN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST...WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
GFS AND GEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO TRICKY AS THEY WILL BE WARMER WITH THE
GFS/GEM SOLUTION AND MUCH COLDER IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.











&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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