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000
FXUS63 KABR 160532 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1232 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

WITH JUST A FEW HOURS REMAINING BEFORE A VIGOROUS UPPER
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN MT/NORTHERN WY WORKS ITS WAY OUT ONTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MODELS SHOULD BE CONVERGING ON A PRECIP
SOLUTION. THAT DOESN`T SEEM TO BE THE CASE THIS EVENING. THE 18Z
GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS /AND NOW THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION/ ALL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT A LARGE QPF/SNOW ACCUM BULLS-EYE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE HOURLY UPDATE MODEL
/RAPID REFRESH MODEL/ SUGGESTS LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FALLING ACROSS SAID AREA BY SUNRISE. ASSUMING THE RAPID REFRESH
MODEL HAS CHECKED OUT FOR A FEW FORECAST CYCLES THIS
EVENING...STILL EXPECTING AN OVERALL INCREASING TREND IN PRECIP
RETURNS/COVERAGE ON RADAR HEADING TOWARD MORNING. PREVIOUS
THINKING STILL HOLDS...STRONG FRONTO-FORCING/LIFT/INSTABILITY
COMBO IN PLACE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A
MESO-SCALE HEAVY BANDED PRECIPITATION EVENT...WHERE P-TYPE ON THE
FRONT END OF THE EVENT WILL BE EITHER RAIN OR A MIXTURE OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WITH 6 OR MORE HOURS
OF POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BENEATH A MESO-SCALE
BANDED FEATURE /WHERE EVER IT ENDS UP SETTING UP/. TRIED TO
HIGHLIGHT BANDED PRECIP HIGHER AMOUNTS IN WSW UPDATE.
BREEZING/WINDY EASTERLY WINDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS SWITCHING TO
NORTHERLY AND INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY...SO ALONG AND EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THAT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL WITH MARKEDLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IS STILL IN PLACE.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

AN INTERESTING FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST...WITH PCPN TYPE/AMOUNTS
THE MAIN PROBLEM. FOR TNT DECENT LOOKING SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL BE DIGGING SOUTH AND EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. UVM PER VARIOUS OMEGA/Q VECTOR/FRONTOGENESIS/DIVERGENCE PROGS
STILL LOOKS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MY NORTHEASTERN CWA AFTER
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...LASTING UNTIL ABOUT NOON OVER THE FAR EAST. ONE
NOTED CHANGE BETWEEN THE MOST RECENT RUNS AND PAST RUNS IS THE
FASTER CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. BOTH THE GFS/NAM NOW INDICATE
LESSER CHANCES FOR FZRA VS SNOW/SLEET. THIS COULD ADD MORE TO
ACCUMULATION TOTALS VS PREVIOUS THOUGHTS/IDEAS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THE STORM APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE DESPITE A CLOSING OFF
H7 LOW OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SO IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF ALL ELEMENTS STILL
APPEARS TO TARGET THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH THE
WORST IMPACTS. NONETHELESS...FEEL AN ADVISORY IS JUSTIFIED OVER
MY NORTHEAST CWA GIVEN OCCURRENCE OF MIXED PCPN TYPE/ACCUMULATING
SNOW/SLEET RIGHT BEFORE THE START OF MORNING TRAVEL TO/FROM WORK
AND SCHOOL. SO AN ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED FOR LATE TNT THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS S/W
RIDGING BUILDS A HEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE REBOUND POST WEDNESDAY...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE ONSET
OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW WILL SKIRT ACROSS CANADA
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MOISTURE PROFILES HAVE MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE
INITIALLY...BUT LOOK TO SATURATE QUICKLY ALONG THE FRONT.
THEREFORE THE FORECAST HOLDS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY. OTHERWISE PRETTY QUIET IN THE LONG TERM.
THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT REALLY NO MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THAT
FEATURE. MODELS DO AGREE ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEAK HOWEVER...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN
TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES...EVEN ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MODEL 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE TEENS...MAYBE EVEN 20S BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE VFR
FLIGHT CAT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

BASICALLY...PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN
THE FORM OF RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. IN THE PROCESS OF DOING SO...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH TO SEE RAIN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...PERHAPS
WITH A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME WHEN P-TYPE SWITCHES FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET BEFORE COMPLETELY SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW.

A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING SOMEWHERE
OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WHERE
EVER THIS OCCURS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT VISBY REDUCTION FROM BOTH
FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR.

BREEZY/WINDY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THEIR
TRANSITION AROUND TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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000
FXUS63 KUNR 160519
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1119 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 108 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS...TOWARD WY. A JET STREAK WAS ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND THUS THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY.
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND IT WILL
REMAIN MILD AS A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL REACH ERN WY BY 00Z.
THIS EVENING THE FAST-MOVING...COMPACT...BUT STRONG TROUGH WILL
SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES AND SREF/NAM/GFS/RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY 06Z
SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST BLKHLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN WY.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM...YET...PRECIP RATES WILL BE ENHANCED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES
(NEAR MOIST-NEUTRAL) AND STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER THE NWRN BLKHLS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TONIGHT.

RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE WRN SD PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...BUT
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 30S WILL PRECLUDE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT MOST 1-2 INCHES
OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NERN WY PLAINS.
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WAVE AND Q-G FORCING WILL MOVE EAST EARLY
AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS (850-MB WINDS OF 20-40
KT). STEEP LAPSE RATES...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
...WITH SNOW CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE BLKHLS...NERN WY...AND NWRN SD.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT A WEAK SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA.


&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 108 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF
WORKS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN
SCT PCPN FOR THE REGION. TEMP FCST REMAINS TRICKY WITH WARM
ADVECTION SETTING IN FOR THE WRN 2/3RDS OF CWFA...AND HAVE
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PCPN. MUCH
WARMER TEMPS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRI AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE
NRN PLAINS. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PCPN EVENT...ALTHOUGH TEMPS LOOK TO
BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY LIQUID. FLAT UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BEHIND A
CDFNT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...ALONG WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW OVER
NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX TOWARD DAWN ON THE
SD PLAINS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WED IN CAA...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL HEATING WILL ACT TO RAISE CLOUD CIGS
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...ESP ON THE PLAINS. CYCLONIC FLOW
WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA WED AFTERNOON /ESP THE WESTERN HALF/ WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC






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000
FXUS63 KFSD 160405
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1105 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AND
EXPECT STOUT FLOW TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE WARM BUT DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE KEPT
FORECAST LOWS QUITE MILD BUT HAVE SHAVED OFF A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  STILL ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.  EXPECT LOWS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA EARLY...WITH
RISING TEMPERATURE MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.

STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. AM
WEAKLY UNSTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY
BE RAIN...BUT FURTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR
TEMPERATURE PROFILES GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW.  THIS
PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH IS MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN
FOLLOWING THE 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC BAND SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. UPPER LEVEL DIV Q QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO EXPECT PROFILES TO START DRYING OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FOR
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...HAVE SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL BACK TO
THE WEST SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE BROOKINGS AREA WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE.  HAVE MENTION OF SNOWFALL FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE GRIDS AS WARMER SOIL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.
PROBABLY WILL SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA IN THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO FEW TENTHS OF
ACCUMULATION. MODELS SEEM TO BE A LITTLE QUICKER TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
EITHER THE MOISTURE WILL BE TOO SHALLOW...OR THAT CLOUDS DISSIPATE
ALTOGETHER LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS REMOVED THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND FLURRY MENTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

MODELS ALREADY BEGIN TO DIVERGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ECMWF
AND GEM ARE QUICKER BUILDING IN THE RIDGING ALOFT...WITH THE NAM AND
GFS STRONGER WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THUS MORE SUPPRESSED WITH
THE RIDGE. BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE...AND THE FACT THAT RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY HAS INCREASED WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE INTERNATIONAL MODEL SOLUTION. SO WHILE THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BELIEVE THE WEAKER WAVE AND
FURTHER NORTH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PREVENT US FROM SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. THUS DECIDED TO REMOVE POPS FOR
NOW...ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA. THIS COULD EITHER BE
IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW...BUT EVEN IF IT DID OCCUR AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL. THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S...SO EVEN WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IT WILL BE A CHILLY ONE. IN GOING WITH THE
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WENT AHEAD AND WARMED
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ON FRIDAY INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS AN UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOKS LIKE DECENT MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH PWAT VALUES 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO THUS GET SOME SHOWERS OUT OF THIS SYSTEM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DO GET SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...SO COULD
VERY WELL SEE SOME THUNDER THERE. WITH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR BOTH
WEAK...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP THE
CHANCE POPS...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...BUT IF MODEL
CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO GROW WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO RAISE THESE
POPS. DID WARM HIGHS SATURDAY...AS LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WARM AHEAD
OF THE FRONT INTO THE 50S AND 60S. IN FACT AM PROBABLY NOT WARM
ENOUGH IN OUR EAST...WHERE WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE SEE SOME
70S. BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN FRONTAL TIMING AND CLOUD AND SHOWER
COVERAGE...FELT TRENDING UP WAS GOOD ENOUGH FOR NOW.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY. DID BUMP
HIGHS UP SOME OVER CONSENSUS FOR EACH DAY WITH 60S AND 70S EXPECTED.
SO SHOULD BE A PLEASANT END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BASED ON FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES...MAY EVEN NEED TO NUDGE HIGHS
UP A BIT MORE AS WE GET CLOSER. KEPT TUESDAY DRY FOR NOW...BUT AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE
PLAINS...WOULD EXPECT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO INCREASE
FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. BUT BEING THAT FAR OUT...TIMING
AND DETAILS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06 TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KSUX/KFSD OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...AND AS TEMPS
SURFACE AND ALOFT COOL BEHIND THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY....MVFR CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP. PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITY ALSO LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 CORRIDOR. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HOLDING JUST ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION OR ICING ON RUNWAYS/TARMACS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED AFTER 17/00Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...JH











000
FXUS63 KABR 160248 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
948 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH JUST A FEW HOURS REMAINING BEFORE A VIGOROUS UPPER
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN MT/NORTHERN WY WORKS ITS WAY OUT ONTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MODELS SHOULD BE CONVERGING ON A PRECIP
SOLUTION. THAT DOESN`T SEEM TO BE THE CASE THIS EVENING. THE 18Z
GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS /AND NOW THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION/ ALL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT A LARGE QPF/SNOW ACCUM BULLS-EYE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE HOURLY UPDATE MODEL
/RAPID REFRESH MODEL/ SUGGESTS LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FALLING ACROSS SAID AREA BY SUNRISE. ASSUMING THE RAPID REFRESH
MODEL HAS CHECKED OUT FOR A FEW FORECAST CYCLES THIS
EVENING...STILL EXPECTING AN OVERALL INCREASING TREND IN PRECIP
RETURNS/COVERAGE ON RADAR HEADING TOWARD MORNING. PREVIOUS
THINKING STILL HOLDS...STRONG FRONTO-FORCING/LIFT/INSTABILITY
COMBO IN PLACE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A
MESO-SCALE HEAVY BANDED PRECIPITATION EVENT...WHERE P-TYPE ON THE
FRONT END OF THE EVENT WILL BE EITHER RAIN OR A MIXTURE OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WITH 6 OR MORE HOURS
OF POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BENEATH A MESO-SCALE
BANDED FEATURE /WHERE EVER IT ENDS UP SETTING UP/. TRIED TO
HIGHLIGHT BANDED PRECIP HIGHER AMOUNTS IN WSW UPDATE.
BREEZING/WINDY EASTERLY WINDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS SWITCHING TO
NORTHERLY AND INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY...SO ALONG AND EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THAT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL WITH MARKEDLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IS STILL IN PLACE.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

AN INTERESTING FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST...WITH PCPN TYPE/AMOUNTS
THE MAIN PROBLEM. FOR TNT DECENT LOOKING SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL BE DIGGING SOUTH AND EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. UVM PER VARIOUS OMEGA/Q VECTOR/FRONTOGENESIS/DIVERGENCE
PROGS STILL LOOKS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MY NORTHEASTERN CWA
AFTER ABOUT MIDNIGHT...LASTING UNTIL ABOUT NOON OVER THE FAR EAST.
ONE NOTED CHANGE BETWEEN THE MOST RECENT RUNS AND PAST RUNS IS THE
FASTER CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. BOTH THE GFS/NAM NOW INDICATE
LESSER CHANCES FOR FZRA VS SNOW/SLEET. THIS COULD ADD MORE TO
ACCUMULATION TOTALS VS PREVIOUS THOUGHTS/IDEAS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THE STORM APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE DESPITE A CLOSING OFF
H7 LOW OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SO IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF ALL ELEMENTS STILL
APPEARS TO TARGET THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH THE
WORST IMPACTS. NONETHELESS...FEEL AN ADVISORY IS JUSTIFIED OVER MY
NORTHEAST CWA GIVEN OCCURRENCE OF MIXED PCPN TYPE/ACCUMULATING
SNOW/SLEET RIGHT BEFORE THE START OF MORNING TRAVEL TO/FROM WORK
AND SCHOOL. SO AN ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED FOR LATE TNT THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS S/W
RIDGING BUILDS A HEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE REBOUND POST WEDNESDAY...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE ONSET
OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW WILL SKIRT ACROSS CANADA
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MOISTURE PROFILES HAVE MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE
INITIALLY...BUT LOOK TO SATURATE QUICKLY ALONG THE FRONT.
THEREFORE THE FORECAST HOLDS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY. OTHERWISE PRETTY QUIET IN THE LONG TERM.
THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT REALLY NO MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THAT
FEATURE. MODELS DO AGREE ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEAK HOWEVER...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN
TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES...EVEN ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MODEL 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE TEENS...MAYBE EVEN 20S BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT
LEAST ANOTHER 6 HOURS BEFORE POTENTIAL FOR DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS STARTS RAMPING UP. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH THE P-TYPE DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. INITIALLY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA APPEAR WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN P-TYPE
WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES DOWN/COOLS DOWN. ONCE
SATURATED...THE LOWEST THREE TO FOUR THOUSAND FEET AGL ARE
FORECAST TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR P-TYPE TO BE SWITCHING OVER TO
SNOW. IT`S IN THIS PERIOD OF TRANSITION/SATURATION LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT P-TYPE COULD BE
FLIRTING WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF DIFFERENT WINTER-TIME
P-TYPES WILL EXIST AT KMBG AND KPIR MAINLY BETWEEN APPX 04Z AND
10Z BEFORE P-TYPE IS FORECAST TO BE ALL SNOW. THE TIME RANGE FOR
THIS POTENTIAL FOR VARIOUS P-TYPES WILL ALSO EXIST AT THE KABR AND
KATY TERMINALS...BUT LATER IN TIME...MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z
WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT OF A HEAVY BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
BY MORNING IS ALSO STILL VERY REAL. THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE
18Z GFS SUGGESTS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP
JUST SOUTH OF MOBRIDGE AND EXTEND EASTWARD THROUGH KABR AND ON
INTO WEST CENTRAL MN NEAR WHEATON. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED
TO IFR CATEGORIES UNDER SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL
SWITCH FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST
BY MORNING...REMAINING GUSTY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR STRATUS
IS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 160034 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
734 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

AN INTERESTING FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST...WITH PCPN TYPE/AMOUNTS
THE MAIN PROBLEM. FOR TNT DECENT LOOKING SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL BE DIGGING SOUTH AND EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. UVM PER VARIOUS OMEGA/Q VECTOR/FRONTOGENESIS/DIVERGENCE
PROGS STILL LOOKS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MY NORTHEASTERN CWA
AFTER ABOUT MIDNIGHT...LASTING UNTIL ABOUT NOON OVER THE FAR EAST.
ONE NOTED CHANGE BETWEEN THE MOST RECENT RUNS AND PAST RUNS IS THE
FASTER CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. BOTH THE GFS/NAM NOW INDICATE
LESSER CHANCES FOR FZRA VS SNOW/SLEET. THIS COULD ADD MORE TO
ACCUMULATION TOTALS VS PREVIOUS THOUGHTS/IDEAS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THE STORM APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE DESPITE A CLOSING OFF
H7 LOW OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SO IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF ALL ELEMENTS STILL
APPEARS TO TARGET THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH THE
WORST IMPACTS. NONETHELESS...FEEL AN ADVISORY IS JUSTIFIED OVER MY
NORTHEAST CWA GIVEN OCCURRENCE OF MIXED PCPN TYPE/ACCUMULATING
SNOW/SLEET RIGHT BEFORE THE START OF MORNING TRAVEL TO/FROM WORK
AND SCHOOL. SO AN ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED FOR LATE TNT THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS S/W
RIDGING BUILDS A HEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE REBOUND POST WEDNESDAY...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE ONSET
OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW WILL SKIRT ACROSS CANADA
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MOISTURE PROFILES HAVE MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE
INITIALLY...BUT LOOK TO SATURATE QUICKLY ALONG THE FRONT.
THEREFORE THE FORECAST HOLDS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY. OTHERWISE PRETTY QUIET IN THE LONG TERM.
THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT REALLY NO MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THAT
FEATURE. MODELS DO AGREE ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEAK HOWEVER...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN
TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES...EVEN ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MODEL 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE TEENS...MAYBE EVEN 20S BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT
LEAST ANOTHER 6 HOURS BEFORE POTENTIAL FOR DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS STARTS RAMPING UP. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH THE P-TYPE DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. INITIALLY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA APPEAR WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN P-TYPE
WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES DOWN/COOLS DOWN. ONCE
SATURATED...THE LOWEST THREE TO FOUR THOUSAND FEET AGL ARE
FORECAST TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR P-TYPE TO BE SWITCHING OVER TO
SNOW. IT`S IN THIS PERIOD OF TRANSITION/SATURATION LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT P-TYPE COULD BE
FLIRTING WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF DIFFERENT WINTER-TIME
P-TYPES WILL EXIST AT KMBG AND KPIR MAINLY BETWEEN APPX 04Z AND
10Z BEFORE P-TYPE IS FORECAST TO BE ALL SNOW. THE TIME RANGE FOR
THIS POTENTIAL FOR VARIOUS P-TYPES WILL ALSO EXIST AT THE KABR AND
KATY TERMINALS...BUT LATER IN TIME...MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z
WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT OF A HEAVY BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
BY MORNING IS ALSO STILL VERY REAL. THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE
18Z GFS SUGGESTS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP
JUST SOUTH OF MOBRIDGE AND EXTEND EASTWARD THROUGH KABR AND ON
INTO WEST CENTRAL MN NEAR WHEATON. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED
TO IFR CATEGORIES UNDER SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL
SWITCH FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST
BY MORNING...REMAINING GUSTY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR STRATUS
IS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-EDMUNDS-FAULK-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 152345
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
645 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AND
EXPECT STOUT FLOW TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE WARM BUT DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE KEPT
FORECAST LOWS QUITE MILD BUT HAVE SHAVED OFF A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  STILL ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.  EXPECT LOWS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA EARLY...WITH
RISING TEMPERATURE MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.

STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. AM
WEAKLY UNSTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY
BE RAIN...BUT FURTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR
TEMPERATURE PROFILES GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW.  THIS
PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH IS MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN
FOLLOWING THE 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC BAND SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. UPPER LEVEL DIV Q QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO EXPECT PROFILES TO START DRYING OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FOR
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...HAVE SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL BACK TO
THE WEST SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE BROOKINGS AREA WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE.  HAVE MENTION OF SNOWFALL FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE GRIDS AS WARMER SOIL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.
PROBABLY WILL SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA IN THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO FEW TENTHS OF
ACCUMULATION. MODELS SEEM TO BE A LITTLE QUICKER TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
EITHER THE MOISTURE WILL BE TOO SHALLOW...OR THAT CLOUDS DISSIPATE
ALTOGETHER LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS REMOVED THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND FLURRY MENTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

MODELS ALREADY BEGIN TO DIVERGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ECMWF
AND GEM ARE QUICKER BUILDING IN THE RIDGING ALOFT...WITH THE NAM AND
GFS STRONGER WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THUS MORE SUPPRESSED WITH
THE RIDGE. BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE...AND THE FACT THAT RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY HAS INCREASED WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE INTERNATIONAL MODEL SOLUTION. SO WHILE THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BELIEVE THE WEAKER WAVE AND
FURTHER NORTH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PREVENT US FROM SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. THUS DECIDED TO REMOVE POPS FOR
NOW...ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA. THIS COULD EITHER BE
IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW...BUT EVEN IF IT DID OCCUR AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL. THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S...SO EVEN WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IT WILL BE A CHILLY ONE. IN GOING WITH THE
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WENT AHEAD AND WARMED
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ON FRIDAY INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS AN UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOKS LIKE DECENT MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH PWAT VALUES 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO THUS GET SOME SHOWERS OUT OF THIS SYSTEM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DO GET SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...SO COULD
VERY WELL SEE SOME THUNDER THERE. WITH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR BOTH
WEAK...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP THE
CHANCE POPS...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...BUT IF MODEL
CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO GROW WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO RAISE THESE
POPS. DID WARM HIGHS SATURDAY...AS LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WARM AHEAD
OF THE FRONT INTO THE 50S AND 60S. IN FACT AM PROBABLY NOT WARM
ENOUGH IN OUR EAST...WHERE WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE SEE SOME
70S. BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN FRONTAL TIMING AND CLOUD AND SHOWER
COVERAGE...FELT TRENDING UP WAS GOOD ENOUGH FOR NOW.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY. DID BUMP
HIGHS UP SOME OVER CONSENSUS FOR EACH DAY WITH 60S AND 70S EXPECTED.
SO SHOULD BE A PLEASANT END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BASED ON FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES...MAY EVEN NEED TO NUDGE HIGHS
UP A BIT MORE AS WE GET CLOSER. KEPT TUESDAY DRY FOR NOW...BUT AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE
PLAINS...WOULD EXPECT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO INCREASE
FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. BUT BEING THAT FAR OUT...TIMING
AND DETAILS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL JET WHICH
DEVELOPS BY LATE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KSUX/KFSD
OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...AND AS TEMPS
SURFACE AND ALOFT COOL BEHIND THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY....MVFR CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP. PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITY ALSO LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 CORRIDOR. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HOLDING JUST ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION OR ICING ON RUNWAYS/TARMACS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...JH








000
FXUS63 KUNR 152320
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
520 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 108 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS...TOWARD WY. A JET STREAK WAS ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND THUS THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY.
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND IT WILL
REMAIN MILD AS A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL REACH ERN WY BY 00Z.
THIS EVENING THE FAST-MOVING...COMPACT...BUT STRONG TROUGH WILL
SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES AND SREF/NAM/GFS/RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY 06Z
SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST BLKHLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN WY.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM...YET...PRECIP RATES WILL BE ENHANCED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES
(NEAR MOIST-NEUTRAL) AND STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER THE NWRN BLKHLS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TONIGHT.

RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE WRN SD PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...BUT
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 30S WILL PRECLUDE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT MOST 1-2 INCHES
OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NERN WY PLAINS.
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WAVE AND Q-G FORCING WILL MOVE EAST EARLY
AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS (850-MB WINDS OF 20-40
KT). STEEP LAPSE RATES...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
...WITH SNOW CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE BLKHLS...NERN WY...AND NWRN SD.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT A WEAK SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA.


&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 108 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF
WORKS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN
SCT PCPN FOR THE REGION. TEMP FCST REMAINS TRICKY WITH WARM
ADVECTION SETTING IN FOR THE WRN 2/3RDS OF CWFA...AND HAVE
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PCPN. MUCH
WARMER TEMPS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRI AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE
NRN PLAINS. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PCPN EVENT...ALTHOUGH TEMPS LOOK TO
BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY LIQUID. FLAT UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A CDFNT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE CDFNT ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING...CHANGING TO SNOW OVER NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT ON THE
SD PLAINS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED OVER NERN WY AND
THE NRN BLKHLS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MRNG. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WED IN CAA. CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SCT MVFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY ISOLD IFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC






000
FXUS63 KUNR 152320
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
520 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 108 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS...TOWARD WY. A JET STREAK WAS ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND THUS THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY.
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND IT WILL
REMAIN MILD AS A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL REACH ERN WY BY 00Z.
THIS EVENING THE FAST-MOVING...COMPACT...BUT STRONG TROUGH WILL
SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES AND SREF/NAM/GFS/RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY 06Z
SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST BLKHLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN WY.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM...YET...PRECIP RATES WILL BE ENHANCED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES
(NEAR MOIST-NEUTRAL) AND STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER THE NWRN BLKHLS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TONIGHT.

RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE WRN SD PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...BUT
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 30S WILL PRECLUDE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT MOST 1-2 INCHES
OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NERN WY PLAINS.
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WAVE AND Q-G FORCING WILL MOVE EAST EARLY
AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS (850-MB WINDS OF 20-40
KT). STEEP LAPSE RATES...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
...WITH SNOW CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE BLKHLS...NERN WY...AND NWRN SD.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT A WEAK SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA.


&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 108 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF
WORKS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN
SCT PCPN FOR THE REGION. TEMP FCST REMAINS TRICKY WITH WARM
ADVECTION SETTING IN FOR THE WRN 2/3RDS OF CWFA...AND HAVE
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PCPN. MUCH
WARMER TEMPS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRI AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE
NRN PLAINS. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PCPN EVENT...ALTHOUGH TEMPS LOOK TO
BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY LIQUID. FLAT UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A CDFNT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE CDFNT ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING...CHANGING TO SNOW OVER NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT ON THE
SD PLAINS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED OVER NERN WY AND
THE NRN BLKHLS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MRNG. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WED IN CAA. CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SCT MVFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY ISOLD IFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KFSD 152053
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
353 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AND
EXPECT STOUT FLOW TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE WARM BUT DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE KEPT
FORECAST LOWS QUITE MILD BUT HAVE SHAVED OFF A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  STILL ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.  EXPECT LOWS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA EARLY...WITH
RISING TEMPERATURE MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.

STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. AM
WEAKLY UNSTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY
BE RAIN...BUT FURTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR
TEMPERATURE PROFILES GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW.  THIS
PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH IS MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN
FOLLOWING THE 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC BAND SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. UPPER LEVEL DIV Q QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO EXPECT PROFILES TO START DRYING OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FOR
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...HAVE SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL BACK TO
THE WEST SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE BROOKINGS AREA WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE.  HAVE MENTION OF SNOWFALL FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE GRIDS AS WARMER SOIL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.
PROBABLY WILL SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA IN THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO FEW TENTHS OF
ACCUMULATION. MODELS SEEM TO BE A LITTLE QUICKER TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
EITHER THE MOISTURE WILL BE TOO SHALLOW...OR THAT CLOUDS DISSIPATE
ALTOGETHER LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS REMOVED THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND FLURRY MENTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

MODELS ALREADY BEGIN TO DIVERGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ECMWF
AND GEM ARE QUICKER BUILDING IN THE RIDGING ALOFT...WITH THE NAM AND
GFS STRONGER WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THUS MORE SUPPRESSED WITH
THE RIDGE. BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE...AND THE FACT THAT RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY HAS INCREASED WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE INTERNATIONAL MODEL SOLUTION. SO WHILE THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BELIEVE THE WEAKER WAVE AND
FURTHER NORTH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PREVENT US FROM SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. THUS DECIDED TO REMOVE POPS FOR
NOW...ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA. THIS COULD EITHER BE
IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW...BUT EVEN IF IT DID OCCUR AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL. THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S...SO EVEN WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IT WILL BE A CHILLY ONE. IN GOING WITH THE
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WENT AHEAD AND WARMED
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ON FRIDAY INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS AN UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOKS LIKE DECENT MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH PWAT VALUES 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO THUS GET SOME SHOWERS OUT OF THIS SYSTEM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DO GET SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...SO COULD
VERY WELL SEE SOME THUNDER THERE. WITH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR BOTH
WEAK...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP THE
CHANCE POPS...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...BUT IF MODEL
CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO GROW WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO RAISE THESE
POPS. DID WARM HIGHS SATURDAY...AS LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WARM AHEAD
OF THE FRONT INTO THE 50S AND 60S. IN FACT AM PROBABLY NOT WARM
ENOUGH IN OUR EAST...WHERE WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE SEE SOME
70S. BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN FRONTAL TIMING AND CLOUD AND SHOWER
COVERAGE...FELT TRENDING UP WAS GOOD ENOUGH FOR NOW.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY. DID BUMP
HIGHS UP SOME OVER CONSENSUS FOR EACH DAY WITH 60S AND 70S EXPECTED.
SO SHOULD BE A PLEASANT END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BASED ON FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES...MAY EVEN NEED TO NUDGE HIGHS
UP A BIT MORE AS WE GET CLOSER. KEPT TUESDAY DRY FOR NOW...BUT AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE
PLAINS...WOULD EXPECT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO INCREASE
FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. BUT BEING THAT FAR OUT...TIMING
AND DETAILS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AS
THE SURFACE DECOUPLES...STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN ALOFT AND WILL
HAVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH KFSD AND KSUX. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AM...AND PRECIPITATION
MAY MIX WITH AND TURN TO SNOW NEAR THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...PRECIPITATION SHOULD MAINLY FALL AS
RAIN...WITH LESS VISIBILITY RESTRICTION.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...







000
FXUS63 KABR 152013
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
313 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

AN INTERESTING FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST...WITH PCPN TYPE/AMOUNTS
THE MAIN PROBLEM. FOR TNT DECENT LOOKING SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL BE DIGGING SOUTH AND EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. UVM PER VARIOUS OMEGA/Q VECTOR/FRONTOGENESIS/DIVERGENCE PROGS
STILL LOOKS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MY NORTHEASTERN CWA AFTER
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...LASTING UNTIL ABOUT NOON OVER THE FAR EAST. ONE
NOTED CHANGE BETWEEN THE MOST RECENT RUNS AND PAST RUNS IS THE
FASTER CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. BOTH THE GFS/NAM NOW INDICATE
LESSER CHANCES FOR FZRA VS SNOW/SLEET. THIS COULD ADD MORE TO
ACCUMULATION TOTALS VS PREVIOUS THOUGHTS/IDEAS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THE STORM APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE DESPITE A CLOSING OFF
H7 LOW OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SO IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF ALL ELEMENTS STILL
APPEARS TO TARGET THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH THE
WORST IMPACTS. NONETHELESS...FEEL AN ADVISORY IS JUSTIFIED OVER
MY NORTHEAST CWA GIVEN OCCURRENCE OF MIXED PCPN TYPE/ACCUMULATING
SNOW/SLEET RIGHT BEFORE THE START OF MORNING TRAVEL TO/FROM WORK
AND SCHOOL. SO AN ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED FOR LATE TNT THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS S/W
RIDGING BUILDS A HEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE REBOUND POST WEDNESDAY...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE ONSET
OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW WILL SKIRT ACROSS CANADA
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MOISTURE PROFILES HAVE MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE
INITIALLY...BUT LOOK TO SATURATE QUICKLY ALONG THE FRONT.
THEREFORE THE FORECAST HOLDS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY. OTHERWISE PRETTY QUIET IN THE LONG TERM.
THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT REALLY NO MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THAT
FEATURE. MODELS DO AGREE ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEAK HOWEVER...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN
TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES...EVEN ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MODEL 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE TEENS...MAYBE EVEN 20S BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BEING AS RAIN...WITH A TRANSITION OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BEFORE TURNING OVER TO SNOW. FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT THE KMBG...KABR...AND KATY TAF
STIES DURING THE TRANSITION. A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
SET UP FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCLUDING THE KATY TAF SITE...POSSIBLY
THE KABR TAF SITE. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR CATEGORIES
UNDER SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...REMAINING
GUSTY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED IN THE COLD
AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-EDMUNDS-FAULK-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KUNR 151911
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
111 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 108 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS...TOWARD WY. A JET STREAK WAS ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND THUS THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY.
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND IT WILL
REMAIN MILD AS A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL REACH ERN WY BY 00Z.
THIS EVENING THE FAST-MOVING...COMPACT...BUT STRONG TROUGH WILL
SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES AND SREF/NAM/GFS/RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY 06Z
SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST BLKHLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN WY.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM...YET...PRECIP RATES WILL BE ENHANCED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES
(NEAR MOIST-NEUTRAL) AND STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER THE NWRN BLKHLS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TONIGHT.

RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE WRN SD PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...BUT
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 30S WILL PRECLUDE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT MOST 1-2 INCHES
OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NERN WY PLAINS.
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WAVE AND Q-G FORCING WILL MOVE EAST EARLY
AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS (850-MB WINDS OF 20-40
KT). STEEP LAPSE RATES...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
...WITH SNOW CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE BLKHLS...NERN WY...AND NWRN SD.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT A WEAK SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 108 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF
WORKS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN
SCT PCPN FOR THE REGION. TEMP FCST REMAINS TRICKY WITH WARM
ADVECTION SETTING IN FOR THE WRN 2/3RDS OF CWFA...AND HAVE
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PCPN. MUCH
WARMER TEMPS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRI AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE
NRN PLAINS. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PCPN EVENT...ALTHOUGH TEMPS LOOK TO
BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY LIQUID. FLAT UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 108 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTN. A CDFNT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE CDFNT ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW OVER NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT ON THE
SD PLAINS. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED OVER NERN WY AND THE
NRN BLKHLS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MRNG.

&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KABR 151802 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
102 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER AM
CONTEMPLATING AN ADVISORY FOR MIXED PCPN LATE TNT INTO WEDNESDAY
BUT AM WAITING FOR LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS BEFORE DECIDING.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

A COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING. AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY BACK INTO THE CWA
TODAY VIA SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 40S IN
THE EAST...TO THE 60S IN THE WEST. WHILE WARMER TEMPS WILL RETURN
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIMITED IF ANY INCREASING LLM THROUGH AT
LEAST 0Z. EVEN WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY 0Z WED...VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS COULD VERY
WELL LEAD TO LITTLE PCPN IN THIS CWA UNTIL AFTER 6Z. PER THE 12Z
LOCAL WRF MODEL AND THE 0Z HI-RES ARW...THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT
OCCUR BETWEEN 9-12Z AND ALONG HIGHWAY 212. IT SEEMS HIGHLY
POSSIBLE FOR ALL PCPN TONIGHT TO FALL AS RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER
TO SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
MODELS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER SE MINNESOTA
WITH PCPN WRAPPING INTO NE SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12-18Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS IS WHEN THE MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR.
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA.

ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH
LIMITED MIXING WINDS AND WITH SOME LEFT OVER LLM...A LOW STRATUS
DECK SEEMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A WARMING
TREND FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH A COUPLE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. A LARGE COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH RISING THICKNESSES OVER OUR REGION. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A COUPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALONG WITH SURFACE FRONTS BRINGING
A FEW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THE MODELS NOW
INDICATE A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUS...ADDED IN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THIS
ONE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH MID 40S EAST AND MID 50S WEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BEING AS RAIN...WITH A TRANSITION OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BEFORE TURNING OVER TO SNOW. FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT THE KMBG...KABR...AND KATY TAF
STIES DURING THE TRANSITION. A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
SET UP FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCLUDING THE KATY TAF SITE...POSSIBLY
THE KABR TAF SITE. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR CATEGORIES
UNDER SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...REMAINING
GUSTY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED IN THE COLD
AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 151744
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1244 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF...USHERING IN SOME PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION. WITH WEAKER FLOW TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29 AND SOME RESIDUAL SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
WARM NEARLY AS MUCH...BUT IT WILL STILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT FROM
YESTERDAYS READINGS. SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
MORNING...SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH THE LOW 60S IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT ONLY CAP IN THE MID OR UPPER 40S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
RELATIVELY LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL...LIKELY CLOSER TO 6 OR 7 IN THE
EVENING.

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
TRACKS INTO OUR WESTERN BORDER LATE TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...SO RAISED LOWS A
BIT INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES OVERNIGHT...DRY LOW LEVELS WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE ACTUAL RAINFALL DOES NOT
BEGIN SPREADING INTO OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL CLOSE
TO SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

UNFORTUNATELY...APPEARS THAT ANOTHER MIXED PRECIPITATION SYSTEM WILL
TAKE SHAPE ON WEDNESDAY AS QUICK MOVING JET PUNCHING ON THE
PACIFIC NW COAST THIS MORNING EVOLVES TOWARD A SHARPENING TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOULD BE QUITE MILD TO START THE DAY
AS SURFACE WAVE SETS UP NEAR THE JAMES VALLEY...AND A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF FEATURE INTO SW MN. TEMPS
SURFACE AND ALOFT WARM ENOUGH TO HAVE ALL RAIN TO START...BUT COLD
AIR WILL START TO SURGE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE SYSTEM BY LATER MORNING
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...AND CONTINUE TO PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. SHARPENING SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TEND TO FAVOR A
STRONGER DUAL COUPLET OF QG FORCING...WITH MORE PRECIPITATION IN
WARM ADVECTIVE REGION OF THE FEATURE...AND SOMEWHAT LESS WORKING
INTO WRAP AROUND BAND. A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR WITH SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE LOWER TO
MID LEVEL FRONTAL BAND...WITH A LIKELY TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR A
TIME BY LATER MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS
ALONG HIGHWAY 14 FROM BROOKINGS TOWARD MARSHALL SHOULD GET AROUND
AN INCH OF WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MOST PREVALENT ON GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. BLUSTERY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVELENGTH SYSTEM WITH VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION ONCE
AGAIN.ALMOST SEEMS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLUELESS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR FALLING TEMPS BEHIND SYSTEM DURING THE DAY...AND
HAVE SIDED MUCH CLOSER TO MORE EXTREME RAW DATA.

BY 00Z...LOCATIONS OTHER THAN THE FAR EAST ARE LIKELY TO HAVE
SCOURED OUT ANY DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH A CONTINUED WRAPPING OF
MOISTURE/STRATUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. ONE CONCERN
AFTER THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOWFALL IN THE FAR
EAST IS THAT TEMPS IN THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER
BECOME INSUFFICIENT TO ENSURE ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. WITH THE
CONTINUED TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN CWA
ALONG WITH SHALLOW LIFT...ALMOST APPEARS TO BE A SETUP FOR SOME
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. ALSO...WITH FLOW WORKING TOWARD AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT
THAT ANY LOWER CLOUDS WILL TEND TO BE SOMEWHAT MORE PERSISTENT
THAN MODELS INDICATE.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NOW APPEARS TO BE
DISPLACED WELL SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN STREAM KICKS ANOTHER SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WAVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
STRUCTURE OF SYSTEM VARIES QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE BOARD
LATITUDNALLY...WITH ECMWF/00Z NAM/CANADIAN GLOBAL FURTHER
NORTHWARD AND GFS/06Z NAM/SREF SOUTHWARD. FORCING FOR LIFT
CONCENTRATED IN LOWER TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE AS
SECONDARY PV LOBE ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER FORCING SEEMS TO ABANDON THE ZONE BY
EARLY ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE NOT CONTINUED POPS. TYPE AGAIN WILL BE
AN ISSUE...AND DANCING A FINE LINE BETWEEN TYPES DEPENDING ON
SOLUTION SET...WITH ANYTHING FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TO SNOW
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR NOW HAVE SETTLED ON A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

SOME MODERATION TO TEMPS WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY...AND THIS TREND
LOOKS TO CONTINUE HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ESPECIALLY BY
MONDAY. WEEKEND NOW NOT LOOKING AS CLEAN WEATHERWISE WITH WESTERN
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
FAIRLY CONVERGENT BOUNDARY WILL PRESS GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  INITIAL FORCING WITH
NORTHERN STREAM PORTION OF TROUGH MAY IMPACT THE NORTHERN CWA TO
SOMEWHAT A GREATER DEGREE...WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING IN
12-18 HOURS SLOWER LOOKS TO GIVE A STRONGER BOOST TO THE PRECIP
POTENTIAL ACROSS MAINLY NW IA AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY
EVENING. INCLUDED POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND
NORTHWEST IOWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. RIDGING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD KEEP AREA
DRY AND INCREASINGLY MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AS
THE SURFACE DECOUPLES...STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN ALOFT AND WILL
HAVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH KFSD AND KSUX. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AM...AND PRECIPITATION
MAY MIX WITH AND TURN TO SNOW NEAR THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...PRECIPITATION SHOULD MAINLY FALL AS
RAIN...WITH LESS VISIBILITY RESTRICTION.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...







000
FXUS63 KUNR 151656
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1056 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH CROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH STRONG RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG SERIES OF WAVES ARE PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST...WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WARM FRONT IS
STRADDLING THE CWA...WITH TEMPS IN NE WY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WHILE THE CNTRL SD PLAINS ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING EASTWARD...AND RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE CWA...THE
WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN. TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS ERN MT
AND CROSS INTO SD THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH THE PRECIP TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LATEST RUNS ARE NOW SHOWING THE PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AFFECTING MOSTLY THE SD PLAINS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE INTO SCNTRL SD. WENT WITH THE SREF FOR PRECIP TYPE...WITH
PRECIP STAYING AS RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT THEN
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS NE WY AND MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS EXCEPT SCNTRL SD. PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLKHLS SOONER THIS EVENING. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 1-3 INCH
ACCUMULATION WORDING FOR THE BLKHLS. THE PLAINS COULD SEE AN INCH OR
SO OF ACCUMULATION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS ERN/CNTRL
WY WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUING. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW OVER THE AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER NE WY...THE BLKHLS AND SW SD. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT MAYBE AN INCH OVER THE HILLS. LESSER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AS UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH.


&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON
THURSDAY...WITH DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. 03Z SREF IS NOW SHOWING 40-60% POPS ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY. HAVE TRENDED POPS UPWARD FOR THURSDAY.
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. FLAT
UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTN. A CDFNT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE CDFNT ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW OVER NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT ON THE
SD PLAINS. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED OVER NERN WY AND THE
NRN BLKHLS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MRNG.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON






000
FXUS63 KABR 151509 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1009 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER AM
CONTEMPLATING AN ADVISORY FOR MIXED PCPN LATE TNT INTO WEDNESDAY
BUT AM WAITING FOR LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS BEFORE DECIDING.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

A COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING. AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY BACK INTO THE CWA
TODAY VIA SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 40S IN
THE EAST...TO THE 60S IN THE WEST. WHILE WARMER TEMPS WILL RETURN
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIMITED IF ANY INCREASING LLM THROUGH AT
LEAST 0Z. EVEN WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY 0Z WED...VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS COULD VERY
WELL LEAD TO LITTLE PCPN IN THIS CWA UNTIL AFTER 6Z. PER THE 12Z
LOCAL WRF MODEL AND THE 0Z HI-RES ARW...THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT
OCCUR BETWEEN 9-12Z AND ALONG HIGHWAY 212. IT SEEMS HIGHLY
POSSIBLE FOR ALL PCPN TONIGHT TO FALL AS RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER
TO SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
MODELS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER SE MINNESOTA
WITH PCPN WRAPPING INTO NE SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12-18Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS IS WHEN THE MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR.
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA.

ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH
LIMITED MIXING WINDS AND WITH SOME LEFT OVER LLM...A LOW STRATUS
DECK SEEMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A WARMING
TREND FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH A COUPLE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. A LARGE COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH RISING THICKNESSES OVER OUR REGION. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A COUPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALONG WITH SURFACE FRONTS BRINGING
A FEW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THE MODELS NOW
INDICATE A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUS...ADDED IN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THIS
ONE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH MID 40S EAST AND MID 50S WEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST WHILE A STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TODAY AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AND THE LOW
LEVEL MIXING LAYER WILL INCREASE BRINGING STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT ALL LOCATIONS. VFR MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TODAY LOWERING INTO THE EVENING.
ALSO...EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS AFFECTING ALL LOCATIONS BY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE LIFT
INCREASES WITH THE SYSTEM AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT ABR AND MBG BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES. THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD
OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE COLD AIR
UNDERCUTS THE WARMER AIR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 151255 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
755 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

A COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING. AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY BACK INTO THE CWA
TODAY VIA SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 40S IN
THE EAST...TO THE 60S IN THE WEST. WHILE WARMER TEMPS WILL RETURN
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIMITED IF ANY INCREASING LLM THROUGH AT
LEAST 0Z. EVEN WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY 0Z WED...VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS COULD VERY
WELL LEAD TO LITTLE PCPN IN THIS CWA UNTIL AFTER 6Z. PER THE 12Z
LOCAL WRF MODEL AND THE 0Z HI-RES ARW...THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT
OCCUR BETWEEN 9-12Z AND ALONG HIGHWAY 212. IT SEEMS HIGHLY
POSSIBLE FOR ALL PCPN TONIGHT TO FALL AS RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER
TO SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
MODELS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER SE MINNESOTA
WITH PCPN WRAPPING INTO NE SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12-18Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS IS WHEN THE MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR.
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA.

ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH
LIMITED MIXING WINDS AND WITH SOME LEFT OVER LLM...A LOW STRATUS
DECK SEEMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A WARMING
TREND FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH A COUPLE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. A LARGE COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH RISING THICKNESSES OVER OUR REGION. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A COUPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALONG WITH SURFACE FRONTS BRINGING
A FEW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THE MODELS NOW
INDICATE A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUS...ADDED IN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THIS
ONE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH MID 40S EAST AND MID 50S WEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST WHILE A STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TODAY AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AND THE LOW
LEVEL MIXING LAYER WILL INCREASE BRINGING STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT ALL LOCATIONS. VFR MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TODAY LOWERING INTO THE EVENING.
ALSO...EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS AFFECTING ALL LOCATIONS BY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE LIFT
INCREASES WITH THE SYSTEM AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT ABR AND MBG BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES. THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD
OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE COLD AIR
UNDERCUTS THE WARMER AIR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 151140
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
640 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF...USHERING IN SOME PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION. WITH WEAKER FLOW TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29 AND SOME RESIDUAL SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
WARM NEARLY AS MUCH...BUT IT WILL STILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT FROM
YESTERDAYS READINGS. SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
MORNING...SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH THE LOW 60S IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT ONLY CAP IN THE MID OR UPPER 40S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
RELATIVELY LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL...LIKELY CLOSER TO 6 OR 7 IN THE
EVENING.

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
TRACKS INTO OUR WESTERN BORDER LATE TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...SO RAISED LOWS A
BIT INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES OVERNIGHT...DRY LOW LEVELS WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE ACTUAL RAINFALL DOES NOT
BEGIN SPREADING INTO OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL CLOSE
TO SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

UNFORTUNATELY...APPEARS THAT ANOTHER MIXED PRECIPITATION SYSTEM WILL
TAKE SHAPE ON WEDNESDAY AS QUICK MOVING JET PUNCHING ON THE
PACIFIC NW COAST THIS MORNING EVOLVES TOWARD A SHARPENING TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOULD BE QUITE MILD TO START THE DAY
AS SURFACE WAVE SETS UP NEAR THE JAMES VALLEY...AND A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF FEATURE INTO SW MN. TEMPS
SURFACE AND ALOFT WARM ENOUGH TO HAVE ALL RAIN TO START...BUT COLD
AIR WILL START TO SURGE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE SYSTEM BY LATER MORNING
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...AND CONTINUE TO PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. SHARPENING SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TEND TO FAVOR A
STRONGER DUAL COUPLET OF QG FORCING...WITH MORE PRECIPITATION IN
WARM ADVECTIVE REGION OF THE FEATURE...AND SOMEWHAT LESS WORKING
INTO WRAP AROUND BAND. A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR WITH SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE LOWER TO
MID LEVEL FRONTAL BAND...WITH A LIKELY TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR A
TIME BY LATER MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS
ALONG HIGHWAY 14 FROM BROOKINGS TOWARD MARSHALL SHOULD GET AROUND
AN INCH OF WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MOST PREVALENT ON GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. BLUSTERY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVELENGTH SYSTEM WITH VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION ONCE
AGAIN.ALMOST SEEMS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLUELESS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR FALLING TEMPS BEHIND SYSTEM DURING THE DAY...AND
HAVE SIDED MUCH CLOSER TO MORE EXTREME RAW DATA.

BY 00Z...LOCATIONS OTHER THAN THE FAR EAST ARE LIKELY TO HAVE
SCOURED OUT ANY DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH A CONTINUED WRAPPING OF
MOISTURE/STRATUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. ONE CONCERN
AFTER THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOWFALL IN THE FAR
EAST IS THAT TEMPS IN THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER
BECOME INSUFFICIENT TO ENSURE ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. WITH THE
CONTINUED TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN CWA
ALONG WITH SHALLOW LIFT...ALMOST APPEARS TO BE A SETUP FOR SOME
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. ALSO...WITH FLOW WORKING TOWARD AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT
THAT ANY LOWER CLOUDS WILL TEND TO BE SOMEWHAT MORE PERSISTENT
THAN MODELS INDICATE.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NOW APPEARS TO BE
DISPLACED WELL SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN STREAM KICKS ANOTHER SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WAVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
STRUCTURE OF SYSTEM VARIES QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE BOARD
LATITUDNALLY...WITH ECMWF/00Z NAM/CANADIAN GLOBAL FURTHER
NORTHWARD AND GFS/06Z NAM/SREF SOUTHWARD. FORCING FOR LIFT
CONCENTRATED IN LOWER TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE AS
SECONDARY PV LOBE ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER FORCING SEEMS TO ABANDON THE ZONE BY
EARLY ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE NOT CONTINUED POPS. TYPE AGAIN WILL BE
AN ISSUE...AND DANCING A FINE LINE BETWEEN TYPES DEPENDING ON
SOLUTION SET...WITH ANYTHING FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TO SNOW
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR NOW HAVE SETTLED ON A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

SOME MODERATION TO TEMPS WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY...AND THIS TREND
LOOKS TO CONTINUE HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ESPECIALLY BY
MONDAY. WEEKEND NOW NOT LOOKING AS CLEAN WEATHERWISE WITH WESTERN
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
FAIRLY CONVERGENT BOUNDARY WILL PRESS GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  INITIAL FORCING WITH
NORTHERN STREAM PORTION OF TROUGH MAY IMPACT THE NORTHERN CWA TO
SOMEWHAT A GREATER DEGREE...WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING IN
12-18 HOURS SLOWER LOOKS TO GIVE A STRONGER BOOST TO THE PRECIP
POTENTIAL ACROSS MAINLY NW IA AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY
EVENING. INCLUDED POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND
NORTHWEST IOWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. RIDGING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD KEEP AREA
DRY AND INCREASINGLY MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING...BECOMING
AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF I-29
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 22Z AND BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW. THE LOW LEVEL JET
ALSO INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT...WITH WIND SHEAR ON THE ORDER
OF 40 KT AT 1000 FEET DEVELOPING SOUTH OF A YANKTON TO SIOUX FALLS TO
WINDOM LINE AFTER 06Z, WIND SHEAR IS MENTIONED IN THE KFSD AND KSUX
TAF. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL HOLD OFF THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES UNTIL AROUND 12Z. WILL LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF SCATTERED OVERNIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS TAF
PACKAGE WITH ONLY VERY SPOTTY COVERAGE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...








000
FXUS63 KFSD 150937
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
437 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF...USHERING IN SOME PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION. WITH WEAKER FLOW TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29 AND SOME RESIDUAL SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
WARM NEARLY AS MUCH...BUT IT WILL STILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT FROM
YESTERDAYS READINGS. SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
MORNING...SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH THE LOW 60S IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT ONLY CAP IN THE MID OR UPPER 40S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
RELATIVELY LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL...LIKELY CLOSER TO 6 OR 7 IN THE
EVENING.

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
TRACKS INTO OUR WESTERN BORDER LATE TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...SO RAISED LOWS A
BIT INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES OVERNIGHT...DRY LOW LEVELS WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE ACTUAL RAINFALL DOES NOT
BEGIN SPREADING INTO OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL CLOSE
TO SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

UNFORTUNATELY...APPEARS THAT ANOTHER MIXED PRECIPITATION SYSTEM WILL
TAKE SHAPE ON WEDNESDAY AS QUICK MOVING JET PUNCHING ON THE
PACIFIC NW COAST THIS MORNING EVOLVES TOWARD A SHARPENING TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOULD BE QUITE MILD TO START THE DAY
AS SURFACE WAVE SETS UP NEAR THE JAMES VALLEY...AND A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF FEATURE INTO SW MN. TEMPS
SURFACE AND ALOFT WARM ENOUGH TO HAVE ALL RAIN TO START...BUT COLD
AIR WILL START TO SURGE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE SYSTEM BY LATER MORNING
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...AND CONTINUE TO PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. SHARPENING SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TEND TO FAVOR A
STRONGER DUAL COUPLET OF QG FORCING...WITH MORE PRECIPITATION IN
WARM ADVECTIVE REGION OF THE FEATURE...AND SOMEWHAT LESS WORKING
INTO WRAP AROUND BAND. A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR WITH SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE LOWER TO
MID LEVEL FRONTAL BAND...WITH A LIKELY TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR A
TIME BY LATER MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS
ALONG HIGHWAY 14 FROM BROOKINGS TOWARD MARSHALL SHOULD GET AROUND
AN INCH OF WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MOST PREVALENT ON GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. BLUSTERY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVELENGTH SYSTEM WITH VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION ONCE
AGAIN.ALMOST SEEMS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLUELESS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR FALLING TEMPS BEHIND SYSTEM DURING THE DAY...AND
HAVE SIDED MUCH CLOSER TO MORE EXTREME RAW DATA.

BY 00Z...LOCATIONS OTHER THAN THE FAR EAST ARE LIKELY TO HAVE
SCOURED OUT ANY DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH A CONTINUED WRAPPING OF
MOISTURE/STRATUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. ONE CONCERN
AFTER THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOWFALL IN THE FAR
EAST IS THAT TEMPS IN THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER
BECOME INSUFFICIENT TO ENSURE ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. WITH THE
CONTINUED TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN CWA
ALONG WITH SHALLOW LIFT...ALMOST APPEARS TO BE A SETUP FOR SOME
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. ALSO...WITH FLOW WORKING TOWARD AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT
THAT ANY LOWER CLOUDS WILL TEND TO BE SOMEWHAT MORE PERSISTENT
THAN MODELS INDICATE.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NOW APPEARS TO BE
DISPLACED WELL SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN STREAM KICKS ANOTHER SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WAVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
STRUCTURE OF SYSTEM VARIES QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE BOARD
LATITUDNALLY...WITH ECMWF/00Z NAM/CANADIAN GLOBAL FURTHER
NORTHWARD AND GFS/06Z NAM/SREF SOUTHWARD. FORCING FOR LIFT
CONCENTRATED IN LOWER TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE AS
SECONDARY PV LOBE ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER FORCING SEEMS TO ABANDON THE ZONE BY
EARLY ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE NOT CONTINUED POPS. TYPE AGAIN WILL BE
AN ISSUE...AND DANCING A FINE LINE BETWEEN TYPES DEPENDING ON
SOLUTION SET...WITH ANYTHING FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TO SNOW
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR NOW HAVE SETTLED ON A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

SOME MODERATION TO TEMPS WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY...AND THIS TREND
LOOKS TO CONTINUE HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ESPECIALLY BY
MONDAY. WEEKEND NOW NOT LOOKING AS CLEAN WEATHERWISE WITH WESTERN
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
FAIRLY CONVERGENT BOUNDARY WILL PRESS GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  INITIAL FORCING WITH
NORTHERN STREAM PORTION OF TROUGH MAY IMPACT THE NORTHERN CWA TO
SOMEWHAT A GREATER DEGREE...WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING IN
12-18 HOURS SLOWER LOOKS TO GIVE A STRONGER BOOST TO THE PRECIP
POTENTIAL ACROSS MAINLY NW IA AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY
EVENING. INCLUDED POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND
NORTHWEST IOWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. RIDGING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD KEEP AREA
DRY AND INCREASINGLY MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 21-26KT RANGE. GUSTINESS WILL SUBSIDE IN
THE EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET COULD BRING SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
DID INCLUDE THIS FOR KSUX LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHERE LOW
LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO ADD TO
KFSD AS WELL WITH NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JH







000
FXUS63 KUNR 150925
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
325 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH CROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH STRONG RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG SERIES OF WAVES ARE PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST...WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WARM FRONT IS
STRADDLING THE CWA...WITH TEMPS IN NE WY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WHILE THE CNTRL SD PLAINS ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING EASTWARD...AND RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE CWA...THE
WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN. TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS ERN MT
AND CROSS INTO SD THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH THE PRECIP TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LATEST RUNS ARE NOW SHOWING THE PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AFFECTING MOSTLY THE SD PLAINS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE INTO SCNTRL SD. WENT WITH THE SREF FOR PRECIP TYPE...WITH
PRECIP STAYING AS RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT THEN
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS NE WY AND MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS EXCEPT SCNTRL SD. PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLKHLS SOONER THIS EVENING. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 1-3 INCH
ACCUMULATION WORDING FOR THE BLKHLS. THE PLAINS COULD SEE AN INCH OR
SO OF ACCUMULATION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS ERN/CNTRL
WY WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUING. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW OVER THE AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER NE WY...THE BLKHLS AND SW SD. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT MAYBE AN INCH OVER THE HILLS. LESSER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AS UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON
THURSDAY...WITH DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. 03Z SREF IS NOW SHOWING 40-60% POPS ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY. HAVE TRENDED POPS UPWARD FOR THURSDAY.
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. FLAT
UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN THIS EVENING AND CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR VSBY EXPECTED WITH THE
SNOW.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 150925
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
325 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH CROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH STRONG RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG SERIES OF WAVES ARE PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST...WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WARM FRONT IS
STRADDLING THE CWA...WITH TEMPS IN NE WY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WHILE THE CNTRL SD PLAINS ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING EASTWARD...AND RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE CWA...THE
WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN. TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS ERN MT
AND CROSS INTO SD THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH THE PRECIP TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LATEST RUNS ARE NOW SHOWING THE PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AFFECTING MOSTLY THE SD PLAINS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE INTO SCNTRL SD. WENT WITH THE SREF FOR PRECIP TYPE...WITH
PRECIP STAYING AS RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT THEN
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS NE WY AND MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS EXCEPT SCNTRL SD. PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLKHLS SOONER THIS EVENING. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 1-3 INCH
ACCUMULATION WORDING FOR THE BLKHLS. THE PLAINS COULD SEE AN INCH OR
SO OF ACCUMULATION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS ERN/CNTRL
WY WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUING. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW OVER THE AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER NE WY...THE BLKHLS AND SW SD. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT MAYBE AN INCH OVER THE HILLS. LESSER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AS UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON
THURSDAY...WITH DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. 03Z SREF IS NOW SHOWING 40-60% POPS ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY. HAVE TRENDED POPS UPWARD FOR THURSDAY.
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. FLAT
UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN THIS EVENING AND CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR VSBY EXPECTED WITH THE
SNOW.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 150925
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
325 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH CROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH STRONG RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG SERIES OF WAVES ARE PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST...WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WARM FRONT IS
STRADDLING THE CWA...WITH TEMPS IN NE WY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WHILE THE CNTRL SD PLAINS ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING EASTWARD...AND RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE CWA...THE
WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN. TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS ERN MT
AND CROSS INTO SD THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH THE PRECIP TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LATEST RUNS ARE NOW SHOWING THE PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AFFECTING MOSTLY THE SD PLAINS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE INTO SCNTRL SD. WENT WITH THE SREF FOR PRECIP TYPE...WITH
PRECIP STAYING AS RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT THEN
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS NE WY AND MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS EXCEPT SCNTRL SD. PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLKHLS SOONER THIS EVENING. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 1-3 INCH
ACCUMULATION WORDING FOR THE BLKHLS. THE PLAINS COULD SEE AN INCH OR
SO OF ACCUMULATION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS ERN/CNTRL
WY WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUING. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW OVER THE AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER NE WY...THE BLKHLS AND SW SD. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT MAYBE AN INCH OVER THE HILLS. LESSER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AS UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON
THURSDAY...WITH DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. 03Z SREF IS NOW SHOWING 40-60% POPS ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY. HAVE TRENDED POPS UPWARD FOR THURSDAY.
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. FLAT
UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN THIS EVENING AND CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR VSBY EXPECTED WITH THE
SNOW.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 150925
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
325 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH CROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH STRONG RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG SERIES OF WAVES ARE PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST...WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WARM FRONT IS
STRADDLING THE CWA...WITH TEMPS IN NE WY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WHILE THE CNTRL SD PLAINS ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING EASTWARD...AND RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE CWA...THE
WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN. TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS ERN MT
AND CROSS INTO SD THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH THE PRECIP TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LATEST RUNS ARE NOW SHOWING THE PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AFFECTING MOSTLY THE SD PLAINS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE INTO SCNTRL SD. WENT WITH THE SREF FOR PRECIP TYPE...WITH
PRECIP STAYING AS RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT THEN
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS NE WY AND MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS EXCEPT SCNTRL SD. PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLKHLS SOONER THIS EVENING. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 1-3 INCH
ACCUMULATION WORDING FOR THE BLKHLS. THE PLAINS COULD SEE AN INCH OR
SO OF ACCUMULATION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS ERN/CNTRL
WY WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUING. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW OVER THE AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER NE WY...THE BLKHLS AND SW SD. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT MAYBE AN INCH OVER THE HILLS. LESSER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AS UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON
THURSDAY...WITH DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. 03Z SREF IS NOW SHOWING 40-60% POPS ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY. HAVE TRENDED POPS UPWARD FOR THURSDAY.
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. FLAT
UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN THIS EVENING AND CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR VSBY EXPECTED WITH THE
SNOW.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KABR 150853
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

A COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING. AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY BACK INTO THE CWA
TODAY VIA SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 40S IN
THE EAST...TO THE 60S IN THE WEST. WHILE WARMER TEMPS WILL RETURN
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIMITED IF ANY INCREASING LLM THROUGH AT
LEAST 0Z. EVEN WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY 0Z WED...VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS COULD VERY
WELL LEAD TO LITTLE PCPN IN THIS CWA UNTIL AFTER 6Z. PER THE 12Z
LOCAL WRF MODEL AND THE 0Z HI-RES ARW...THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT
OCCUR BETWEEN 9-12Z AND ALONG HIGHWAY 212. IT SEEMS HIGHLY
POSSIBLE FOR ALL PCPN TONIGHT TO FALL AS RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER
TO SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
MODELS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER SE MINNESOTA
WITH PCPN WRAPPING INTO NE SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12-18Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS IS WHEN THE MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR.
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA.

ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH
LIMITED MIXING WINDS AND WITH SOME LEFT OVER LLM...A LOW STRATUS
DECK SEEMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A WARMING
TREND FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH A COUPLE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. A LARGE COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH RISING THICKNESSES OVER OUR REGION. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A COUPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALONG WITH SURFACE FRONTS BRINGING
A FEW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THE MODELS NOW
INDICATE A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUS...ADDED IN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THIS
ONE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH MID 40S EAST AND MID 50S WEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
TODAY AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AND THE LOW
LEVEL MIXING LAYER WILL INCREASE BRINGING STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT ALL LOCATIONS. VFR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE TODAY LOWERING INTO THE EVENING. ALSO...EXPECT
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS POSSIBLY AFFECTING KMBG...KABR AND KATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 150548 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1248 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR OUTSTANDING ECLIPSE VIEWING TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED. TEMPS
HOWEVER WILL BE COLD...WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR
ALL LOCATIONS IN THE ABR CWA. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP TO REMOVE
SHOWERS ALREADY. OVERALL MINOR UPDATES MADE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

AN INTERESTING FORECAST COMING UP. FOR TNT EXPECT THE MOSTLY
DIABATICALLY DRIVEN SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING
SINCE S/W HAS PRETTY MUCH MOVED ON. MEANWHILE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD COMBINE WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
SLACKENING WINDS TO OFFER UP A COLD NIGHT...PERHAPS EVEN RECORD
FOR A FEW LOCALES. TUESDAY SHOULD BRING ABOUT A MILDER DAY FOR THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST PORTION AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES
DEVELOP.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IS WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING.
SYSTEM CURRENTLY CRASHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS WHAT
WILL TRACK PROGRESSIVELY ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK. JET DYNAMICS
AND MID LEVEL OMEGA LOOK PRETTY STRONG AS DOES THETA E ADVECTION
AROUND H7. ALTHOUGH THE JUXTAPOSITION OF ALL THE BEST ELEMENTS
APPEARS AS IF IT WILL COME TOGETHER A LITTLE EAST OF THE ABR CWA.
NONETHELESS AM STILL EXPECTING A MIXED BAG OF PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE PCPN TURNS OVER MOSTLY TO SNOW. A
BIT TOO EARLY FOR HEADLINES...BUT THEY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE
TURNOVER FROM LIQUID TO FROZEN BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE FAR
NORTHEAST MAY HAVE THE HIGHEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DECENT
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THURSDAY STARTS OFF WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. 850 MB TEMPS START OFF AS
COLD AS -10 DEGREES CELSIUS AND REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST AREAS. MODELS STILL SHOW
A GRADUAL WARM UP STARTING FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AND MAYBE
EVEN ABOVE NORMAL.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...ONLY KEEPING AN EYE ON ONE SYSTEM FOR THE
TIME BEING WHICH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS DRY AT THIS TIME. THERES ACTUALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GFS/EC/GEM IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THE
LOW...WHICH TAKES IT ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WOULD PUT
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA IN THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP. AS OF
RIGHT NOW MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM TO BE A FAIRLY QUICK MOVER...SO
DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP RIGHT NOW. TEMPS MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SNOW...BUT SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH SATURDAY
MORNING TO CHANGE ANYTHING TO RAIN.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
TODAY AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AND THE LOW
LEVEL MIXING LAYER WILL INCREASE BRINGING STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT ALL LOCATIONS. VFR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE TODAY LOWERING INTO THE EVENING. ALSO...EXPECT
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS POSSIBLY AFFECTING KMBG...KABR AND KATY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 150501
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1101 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE SRN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES INTO ERN MT/WRN ND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER
SRN HUDSON BAY WITH TROF DROPPING TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WRN CONUS BRINGING FAST
N/NWRLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING CLOUDS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AS STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND STARTS ITS APPROACH.

ON TUESDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN RIDGE WHILE
SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER ERN MT. WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S OVER THE SERN CWA.
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO THE NWRN CWA BY EARLY EVENING AND S CTRL/SERN
SD OVERNIGHT WITH COLD FRONT WRAPPING IN. POTENT SHORT WAVE PUSHES
INTO THE CWA WITH AREAS OF PRECIP DEVELOPING. PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN OVER MOST AREAS...WITH A TRANSITION TOWARDS SNOW AS
COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT. GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES/EXPECTED
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE NRN BLKHLS WHERE FROUDE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS ON WED BRINGING RAIN/SNOW TO THE REGION ALONG WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPS...WITH RELATIVELY STRONG UPSLOPE SIGNATURE
CONTINUING IN THE NRN BLKHLS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. PCPN CHANCES
WILL BE LOWER WED NIGHT AS STRONG SHORT WAVE PULLS EAST OF THE
REGION...BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FCST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MAIN UPPER TROF FINALLY WORKS EAST. NEXT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVES IN
BY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NEXT POSSIBLE ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW...MAINLY FOR
OUR NRN ZONES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD SE INTO THE FA TUE EVENING OVER FAR NW PORTIONS OF
THE FA BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD NW TO SE WITH VIS
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED NE WY AND ESP OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 150501
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1101 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE SRN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES INTO ERN MT/WRN ND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER
SRN HUDSON BAY WITH TROF DROPPING TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WRN CONUS BRINGING FAST
N/NWRLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING CLOUDS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AS STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND STARTS ITS APPROACH.

ON TUESDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN RIDGE WHILE
SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER ERN MT. WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S OVER THE SERN CWA.
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO THE NWRN CWA BY EARLY EVENING AND S CTRL/SERN
SD OVERNIGHT WITH COLD FRONT WRAPPING IN. POTENT SHORT WAVE PUSHES
INTO THE CWA WITH AREAS OF PRECIP DEVELOPING. PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN OVER MOST AREAS...WITH A TRANSITION TOWARDS SNOW AS
COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT. GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES/EXPECTED
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE NRN BLKHLS WHERE FROUDE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS ON WED BRINGING RAIN/SNOW TO THE REGION ALONG WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPS...WITH RELATIVELY STRONG UPSLOPE SIGNATURE
CONTINUING IN THE NRN BLKHLS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. PCPN CHANCES
WILL BE LOWER WED NIGHT AS STRONG SHORT WAVE PULLS EAST OF THE
REGION...BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FCST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MAIN UPPER TROF FINALLY WORKS EAST. NEXT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVES IN
BY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NEXT POSSIBLE ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW...MAINLY FOR
OUR NRN ZONES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD SE INTO THE FA TUE EVENING OVER FAR NW PORTIONS OF
THE FA BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD NW TO SE WITH VIS
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED NE WY AND ESP OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC






000
FXUS63 KFSD 150435
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1135 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WILL SEE ANY INSTABILITY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE DECREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WITH DYING WINDS AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOWER 20S...AND TRENDED LOWEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER STILL EXISTS PER LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH. WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO PUSH OUT OF THE ROCKIES...IT
WILL BE A BREEZY DAY IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT. WARMING THERMAL
PROFILES WILL BRING A MUCH WARMER DAY TO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS
NUDGING INTO THE LOWER 60S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO
THE MID 40S OVER SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH/MID CLOUDS DURING THE DAY OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FAIRLY MILD NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS AND
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND 925 TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 3 TO 5 C RANGE...HAVE SIDED FOR LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CRASHES THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY LEADING TO FALLING TEMPERATURES.  EXPECT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH MAKES PRECIPITATION TYPE QUITE AN ISSUE.  DESPITE THE
STRONG THERMAL CONTRAST...MID LEVEL DYNAMICS DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS
STRONG AS THEY DID A FEW DAYS AGO. THE 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...AND FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS THERE.  FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...LEFT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.  COULD SEE SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT...AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
SURFACE RIDGE PASSING TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AND COOL BUT DRY
NORTHEAST WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.  THE SYSTEM
THAT APPEARED TO PHASE WITH WEDNESDAY/S SYSTEM IN THE MODEL RUNS A
FEW DAYS AGO PASSES TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY.  INHERITED SOME SMALL
POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...THOUGH NOW IT IS APPEARING MORE AND
MORE LIKELY THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND CUT POPS BACK.

RETURN FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.  HAVE CARRIED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. WHILE THE
GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THE ECMWF TAKES IT NORTH OF THE US CANADIAN BORDER. THE
CANADIAN LIES SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE...BRUSHING THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIP.  BOTH SOLUTIONS  HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH ITS PLACEMENT...SO FOR NOW...DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
WHICH TO SIDE WITH. THEREFORE...RESTRICTED POPS ONLY TO THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION WHICH WOULD BE AN OVERSTATEMENT IF THE ECMWF
VERIFIES.

WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.  HAVE
SIDED TOWARDS THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 21-26KT RANGE. GUSTINESS WILL SUBSIDE IN
THE EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET COULD BRING SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
DID INCLUDE THIS FOR KSUX LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHERE LOW
LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO ADD TO
KFSD AS WELL WITH NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH






000
FXUS63 KABR 150145
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
845 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR OUTSTANDING ECLIPSE VIEWING TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED. TEMPS HOWEVER WILL
BE COLD...WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR ALL LOCATIONS
IN THE ABR CWA. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP TO REMOVE SHOWERS ALREADY.
OVERALL MINOR UPDATES MADE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

AN INTERESTING FORECAST COMING UP. FOR TNT EXPECT THE MOSTLY
DIABATICALLY DRIVEN SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING
SINCE S/W HAS PRETTY MUCH MOVED ON. MEANWHILE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD COMBINE WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
SLACKENING WINDS TO OFFER UP A COLD NIGHT...PERHAPS EVEN RECORD
FOR A FEW LOCALES. TUESDAY SHOULD BRING ABOUT A MILDER DAY FOR THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST PORTION AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES
DEVELOP.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IS WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING.
SYSTEM CURRENTLY CRASHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS WHAT
WILL TRACK PROGRESSIVELY ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK. JET DYNAMICS
AND MID LEVEL OMEGA LOOK PRETTY STRONG AS DOES THETA E ADVECTION
AROUND H7. ALTHOUGH THE JUXTAPOSITION OF ALL THE BEST ELEMENTS
APPEARS AS IF IT WILL COME TOGETHER A LITTLE EAST OF THE ABR CWA.
NONETHELESS AM STILL EXPECTING A MIXED BAG OF PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE PCPN TURNS OVER MOSTLY TO SNOW. A
BIT TOO EARLY FOR HEADLINES...BUT THEY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE
TURNOVER FROM LIQUID TO FROZEN BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE FAR
NORTHEAST MAY HAVE THE HIGHEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DECENT
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THURSDAY STARTS OFF WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. 850 MB TEMPS START OFF AS
COLD AS -10 DEGREES CELSIUS AND REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST AREAS. MODELS STILL SHOW
A GRADUAL WARM UP STARTING FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AND MAYBE
EVEN ABOVE NORMAL.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...ONLY KEEPING AN EYE ON ONE SYSTEM FOR THE
TIME BEING WHICH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS DRY AT THIS TIME. THERES ACTUALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GFS/EC/GEM IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THE
LOW...WHICH TAKES IT ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WOULD PUT
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA IN THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP. AS OF
RIGHT NOW MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM TO BE A FAIRLY QUICK MOVER...SO
DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP RIGHT NOW. TEMPS MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SNOW...BUT SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH SATURDAY
MORNING TO CHANGE ANYTHING TO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO END BY SUNSET ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
WELL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SCARLETT
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 142343
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
543 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE SRN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES INTO ERN MT/WRN ND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER
SRN HUDSON BAY WITH TROF DROPPING TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WRN CONUS BRINGING FAST
N/NWRLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING CLOUDS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AS STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND STARTS ITS APPROACH.

ON TUESDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN RIDGE WHILE
SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER ERN MT. WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S OVER THE SERN CWA.
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO THE NWRN CWA BY EARLY EVENING AND S CTRL/SERN
SD OVERNIGHT WITH COLD FRONT WRAPPING IN. POTENT SHORT WAVE PUSHES
INTO THE CWA WITH AREAS OF PRECIP DEVELOPING. PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN OVER MOST AREAS...WITH A TRANSITION TOWARDS SNOW AS
COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT. GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES/EXPECTED
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE NRN BLKHLS WHERE FROUDE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS ON WED BRINGING RAIN/SNOW TO THE REGION ALONG WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPS...WITH RELATIVELY STRONG UPSLOPE SIGNATURE
CONTINUING IN THE NRN BLKHLS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. PCPN CHANCES
WILL BE LOWER WED NIGHT AS STRONG SHORT WAVE PULLS EAST OF THE
REGION...BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FCST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MAIN UPPER TROF FINALLY WORKS EAST. NEXT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVES IN
BY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NEXT POSSIBLE ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW...MAINLY FOR
OUR NRN ZONES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITONS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE FA...MAINLY
NE WY BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT AND LIKELY JUST OUTSIDE THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC






000
FXUS63 KUNR 142343
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
543 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE SRN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES INTO ERN MT/WRN ND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER
SRN HUDSON BAY WITH TROF DROPPING TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WRN CONUS BRINGING FAST
N/NWRLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING CLOUDS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AS STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND STARTS ITS APPROACH.

ON TUESDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN RIDGE WHILE
SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER ERN MT. WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S OVER THE SERN CWA.
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO THE NWRN CWA BY EARLY EVENING AND S CTRL/SERN
SD OVERNIGHT WITH COLD FRONT WRAPPING IN. POTENT SHORT WAVE PUSHES
INTO THE CWA WITH AREAS OF PRECIP DEVELOPING. PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN OVER MOST AREAS...WITH A TRANSITION TOWARDS SNOW AS
COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT. GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES/EXPECTED
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE NRN BLKHLS WHERE FROUDE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS ON WED BRINGING RAIN/SNOW TO THE REGION ALONG WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPS...WITH RELATIVELY STRONG UPSLOPE SIGNATURE
CONTINUING IN THE NRN BLKHLS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. PCPN CHANCES
WILL BE LOWER WED NIGHT AS STRONG SHORT WAVE PULLS EAST OF THE
REGION...BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FCST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MAIN UPPER TROF FINALLY WORKS EAST. NEXT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVES IN
BY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NEXT POSSIBLE ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW...MAINLY FOR
OUR NRN ZONES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITONS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE FA...MAINLY
NE WY BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT AND LIKELY JUST OUTSIDE THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KFSD 142339
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
639 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WILL SEE ANY INSTABILITY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE DECREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WITH DYING WINDS AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOWER 20S...AND TRENDED LOWEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER STILL EXISTS PER LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH. WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO PUSH OUT OF THE ROCKIES...IT
WILL BE A BREEZY DAY IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT. WARMING THERMAL
PROFILES WILL BRING A MUCH WARMER DAY TO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS
NUDGING INTO THE LOWER 60S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO
THE MID 40S OVER SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH/MID CLOUDS DURING THE DAY OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FAIRLY MILD NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS AND
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND 925 TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 3 TO 5 C RANGE...HAVE SIDED FOR LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CRASHES THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY LEADING TO FALLING TEMPERATURES.  EXPECT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH MAKES PRECIPITATION TYPE QUITE AN ISSUE.  DESPITE THE
STRONG THERMAL CONTRAST...MID LEVEL DYNAMICS DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS
STRONG AS THEY DID A FEW DAYS AGO. THE 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...AND FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS THERE.  FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...LEFT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.  COULD SEE SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT...AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
SURFACE RIDGE PASSING TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AND COOL BUT DRY
NORTHEAST WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.  THE SYSTEM
THAT APPEARED TO PHASE WITH WEDNESDAY/S SYSTEM IN THE MODEL RUNS A
FEW DAYS AGO PASSES TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY.  INHERITED SOME SMALL
POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...THOUGH NOW IT IS APPEARING MORE AND
MORE LIKELY THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND CUT POPS BACK.

RETURN FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.  HAVE CARRIED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. WHILE THE
GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THE ECMWF TAKES IT NORTH OF THE US CANADIAN BORDER. THE
CANADIAN LIES SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE...BRUSHING THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIP.  BOTH SOLUTIONS  HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH ITS PLACEMENT...SO FOR NOW...DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
WHICH TO SIDE WITH. THEREFORE...RESTRICTED POPS ONLY TO THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION WHICH WOULD BE AN OVERSTATEMENT IF THE ECMWF
VERIFIES.

WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.  HAVE
SIDED TOWARDS THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

SCATTERED SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WILL SPUR GUSTY WINDS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED 5-7KFT CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...WITH WINDS LIKEWISE DECREASING
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH








000
FXUS63 KABR 142320
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
620 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

AN INTERESTING FORECAST COMING UP. FOR TNT EXPECT THE MOSTLY
DIABATICALLY DRIVEN SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING
SINCE S/W HAS PRETTY MUCH MOVED ON. MEANWHILE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD COMBINE WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
SLACKENING WINDS TO OFFER UP A COLD NIGHT...PERHAPS EVEN RECORD
FOR A FEW LOCALES. TUESDAY SHOULD BRING ABOUT A MILDER DAY FOR THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST PORTION AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES
DEVELOP.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IS WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING.
SYSTEM CURRENTLY CRASHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS WHAT
WILL TRACK PROGRESSIVELY ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK. JET DYNAMICS
AND MID LEVEL OMEGA LOOK PRETTY STRONG AS DOES THETA E ADVECTION
AROUND H7. ALTHOUGH THE JUXTAPOSITION OF ALL THE BEST ELEMENTS
APPEARS AS IF IT WILL COME TOGETHER A LITTLE EAST OF THE ABR CWA.
NONETHELESS AM STILL EXPECTING A MIXED BAG OF PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE PCPN TURNS OVER MOSTLY TO SNOW. A
BIT TOO EARLY FOR HEADLINES...BUT THEY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE
TURNOVER FROM LIQUID TO FROZEN BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE FAR
NORTHEAST MAY HAVE THE HIGHEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DECENT
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THURSDAY STARTS OFF WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. 850 MB TEMPS START OFF AS
COLD AS -10 DEGREES CELSIUS AND REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST AREAS. MODELS STILL SHOW
A GRADUAL WARM UP STARTING FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AND MAYBE
EVEN ABOVE NORMAL.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...ONLY KEEPING AN EYE ON ONE SYSTEM FOR THE
TIME BEING WHICH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS DRY AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ACTUALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GFS/EC/GEM IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THE
LOW...WHICH TAKES IT ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WOULD PUT
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA IN THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP. AS OF
RIGHT NOW MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM TO BE A FAIRLY QUICK MOVER...SO
DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP RIGHT NOW. TEMPS MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SNOW...BUT SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH SATURDAY
MORNING TO CHANGE ANYTHING TO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO END BY SUNSET ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
WELL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SCARLETT
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 142057
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
257 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE SRN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES INTO ERN MT/WRN ND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER
SRN HUDSON BAY WITH TROF DROPPING TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WRN CONUS BRINGING FAST
N/NWRLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING CLOUDS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AS STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND STARTS ITS APPROACH.

ON TUESDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN RIDGE WHILE
SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER ERN MT. WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S OVER THE SERN CWA.
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO THE NWRN CWA BY EARLY EVENING AND S CTRL/SERN
SD OVERNIGHT WITH COLD FRONT WRAPPING IN. POTENT SHORT WAVE PUSHES
INTO THE CWA WITH AREAS OF PRECIP DEVELOPING. PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN OVER MOST AREAS...WITH A TRANSITION TOWARDS SNOW AS
COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT. GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES/EXPECTED
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE NRN BLKHLS WHERE FROUDE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS ON WED BRINGING RAIN/SNOW TO THE REGION ALONG WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPS...WITH RELATIVELY STRONG UPSLOPE SIGNATURE
CONTINUING IN THE NRN BLKHLS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. PCPN CHANCES
WILL BE LOWER WED NIGHT AS STRONG SHORT WAVE PULLS EAST OF THE
REGION...BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FCST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MAIN UPPER TROF FINALLY WORKS EAST. NEXT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVES IN
BY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NEXT POSSIBLE ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW...MAINLY FOR
OUR NRN ZONES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON








000
FXUS63 KFSD 142048
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
348 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WILL SEE ANY INSTABILITY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE DECREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WITH DYING WINDS AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOWER 20S...AND TRENDED LOWEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER STILL EXISTS PER LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH. WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO PUSH OUT OF THE ROCKIES...IT
WILL BE A BREEZY DAY IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT. WARMING THERMAL
PROFILES WILL BRING A MUCH WARMER DAY TO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS
NUDGING INTO THE LOWER 60S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO
THE MID 40S OVER SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH/MID CLOUDS DURING THE DAY OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FAIRLY MILD NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS AND
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND 925 TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 3 TO 5 C RANGE...HAVE SIDED FOR LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CRASHES THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY LEADING TO FALLING TEMPERATURES.  EXPECT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH MAKES PRECIPITATION TYPE QUITE AN ISSUE.  DESPITE THE
STRONG THERMAL CONTRAST...MID LEVEL DYNAMICS DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS
STRONG AS THEY DID A FEW DAYS AGO. THE 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...AND FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS THERE.  FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...LEFT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.  COULD SEE SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT...AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
SURFACE RIDGE PASSING TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AND COOL BUT DRY
NORTHEAST WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.  THE SYSTEM
THAT APPEARED TO PHASE WITH WEDNESDAY/S SYSTEM IN THE MODEL RUNS A
FEW DAYS AGO PASSES TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY.  INHERITED SOME SMALL
POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...THOUGH NOW IT IS APPEARING MORE AND
MORE LIKELY THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND CUT POPS BACK.

RETURN FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.  HAVE CARRIED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. WHILE THE
GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THE ECMWF TAKES IT NORTH OF THE US CANADIAN BORDER. THE
CANADIAN LIES SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE...BRUSHING THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIP.  BOTH SOLUTIONS  HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH ITS PLACEMENT...SO FOR NOW...DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
WHICH TO SIDE WITH. THEREFORE...RESTRICTED POPS ONLY TO THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION WHICH WOULD BE AN OVERSTATEMENT IF THE ECMWF
VERIFIES.

WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.  HAVE
SIDED TOWARDS THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR
FLURRY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTING LITTLE IMPACT TO CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AND PICKING UP MID MORNING
ON TUESDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM







000
FXUS63 KABR 142011
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
311 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

AN INTERESTING FORECAST COMING UP. FOR TNT EXPECT THE MOSTLY
DIABATICALLY DRIVEN SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING
SINCE S/W HAS PRETTY MUCH MOVED ON. MEANWHILE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD COMBINE WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
SLACKENING WINDS TO OFFER UP A COLD NIGHT...PERHAPS EVEN RECORD
FOR A FEW LOCALES. TUESDAY SHOULD BRING ABOUT A MILDER DAY FOR THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST PORTION AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES
DEVELOP.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IS WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING.
SYSTEM CURRENTLY CRASHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS WHAT
WILL TRACK PROGRESSIVELY ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK. JET DYNAMICS
AND MID LEVEL OMEGA LOOK PRETTY STRONG AS DOES THETA E ADVECTION
AROUND H7. ALTHOUGH THE JUXTAPOSITION OF ALL THE BEST ELEMENTS
APPEARS AS IF IT WILL COME TOGETHER A LITTLE EAST OF THE ABR CWA.
NONETHELESS AM STILL EXPECTING A MIXED BAG OF PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE PCPN TURNS OVER MOSTLY TO SNOW. A
BIT TOO EARLY FOR HEADLINES...BUT THEY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE
TURNOVER FROM LIQUID TO FROZEN BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE FAR
NORTHEAST MAY HAVE THE HIGHEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DECENT
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THURSDAY STARTS OFF WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. 850 MB TEMPS START OFF AS
COLD AS -10 DEGREES CELSIUS AND REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST AREAS. MODELS STILL SHOW
A GRADUAL WARM UP STARTING FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AND MAYBE
EVEN ABOVE NORMAL.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...ONLY KEEPING AN EYE ON ONE SYSTEM FOR THE
TIME BEING WHICH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS DRY AT THIS TIME. THERES ACTUALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GFS/EC/GEM IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THE
LOW...WHICH TAKES IT ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WOULD PUT
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA IN THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP. AS OF
RIGHT NOW MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM TO BE A FAIRLY QUICK MOVER...SO
DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP RIGHT NOW. TEMPS MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SNOW...BUT SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH SATURDAY
MORNING TO CHANGE ANYTHING TO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCT -SHSN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
CONDITIONS MAINLY REMAINING VFR. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A FEW
EMBEDDED SHSN WHICH MAY BRIEFLY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR. CIGS WILL
DISSIPATE/IMPROVE BY EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
OVERNIGHT. BREEZY NORTHWEST SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LIGHT THIS EVENING...THEN RAMP UP AGAIN BY MID MORNING
TUESDAY...BUT FROM A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 141747 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1247 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING. DID UPDATE SOME POPS AND WILL
CONTINUE SHOWER MENTION IN THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATES
HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERAL DETAILS TO KEEP TRACK OF THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO
SHORT TERM FCST. MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THOUGH WILL SYSTEM THAT
AFFECTS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FIRST UP...NEED TO DEAL WITH 700HPA WAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CWA
TODAY. MODELS ARE CONT TO ADVERTISE A WEAK 700HPA THETA-E RIDGE
ASSOC WITH WEAK WAVE...AND OBS UPSTREAM SHOW POCKETS OF LIGHT
SNOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF JAMES RIVER
SHOW VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LEADING TO THOUGHTS OF
SNOW SQUALLS ACROSS THE COTEAU REGION. BASED UPON ND RADAR
RETURNS...HAVE EXPANDED PCPN SHIELD BACK TO THE WEST A BIT...UPPED
POPS AND WENT WITH CATEGORICAL WORDING. HAVE A FEELING THAT ONCE
PCPN MOVES INTO CWA...POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED INTO LIKELY/OCNL
TERRITORY. ALSO..BASED UPON FCST SOUNDINGS AND 925MB HPA
TEMPS...WENT WITH FROZEN VERSUS LIQUID PCPN TYPE. ANTICIPATE HIGH
TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY HIGHS...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO
COLDER.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES OVER AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH STRONG WAA PUSH SEEN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
GFS/NAM POINT TOWARD SOME INCREASING 700HPA OMEGA ASSOC WITH WAA
PUSH. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER DUE TO THIS...AND WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE VIRGA DEVELOP...BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION
OF PCPN AT THIS TIME.

TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IS A TALE OF TWO MODELS. THE NAM IS VERY
BULLISH ON PCPN ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHWAY 12
CORRIDOR. LINGERS DEVELOPING SFC AND 700HPA LOW IN THE NRN PLAINS
A BIT LONGER...ALLOWING SNOW TOTALS TO PILE UP. WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA IS MET...IF YOU BELIEVE THE NAM. THE GFS
AND EC HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENTLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE 700HPA
SYSTEM...AND ARE STRONGER WITH NORTHWARD PUSH OF WAA/DRY SLOTTING
ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF
CONSISTENCY...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN ON AN EC/GFS SOLN FOR THE
TUESDAY NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME. ONE CONCERN IS THAT EVEN THE GFS
WHEN LOOKING AT 850HPA TEMPS AND 850HPA-700HPA CRITICAL THICKNESS
VALUES...FZRA IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW IP/UP/FZRA FOR KABR THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF FZRA TO THE NRN COUNTIES TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH CAA MAKING A RETURN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...ALL PCPN EXCEPT
FOR ACROSS THE SRN/SERN COUNTIES SHOULD HAVE TURNED OVER TO ALL
SNOW.. AGAIN BASED ON LOW LEVEL TEMPS/CRITICAL THICKNESS
VALUES...SRN/SERN CWA SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL MAKE A
MENTION OF FZRA IN THE HWO...BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM GOING FROM MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY ON TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH AND ITS ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY STILL
AFFECTING OUR FAR EASTERN CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MAY HAVE TO
ADD IN A POP FOR THIS LATER ON BUT LEFT IT DRY FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...THE MODELS SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
AREA/TROUGH IN SOUTHERN CANADA DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME COLD AIR DAYTIME HEATING SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA ALOFT...BUT WILL LEAVE IT DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...THERE ALSO
MAY BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AFFECT THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
CWA SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD INTO SUNDAY. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN ON SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCT -SHSN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
CONDITIONS MAINLY REMAINING VFR. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A FEW
EMBEDDED SHSN WHICH MAY BRIEFLY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR. CIGS WILL
DISSIPATE/IMPROVE BY EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
OVERNIGHT. BREEZY NORTHWEST SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LIGHT THIS EVENING...THEN RAMP UP AGAIN BY MID MORNING
TUESDAY...BUT FROM A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK/TMT
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 141722
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1222 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK 700 MB
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FOR PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH ONLY
VERY WEAK SUPPORT AND VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...COULD SEE A FEW COLD AIR
INSTABILITY SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES...BUT NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. ADDED ISOLATED FLURRY AND SPRINKLE MENTION TO THE
FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAIN BRISK TODAY AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY
IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED SNOWFALL YESTERDAY IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

WINDS QUICKLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TURN
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST.
LIGHT FLOW AND DECREASING CLOUDS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR A VERY CHILLY
NIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED NEAR 20 INTO THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

STRONG WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...AHEAD OF
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL START TO FOCUS A BIT MORE AS
FEATURES SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...QUITE DRY LOWER LEVELS
WILL BE EXCRUCIATINGLY DIFFICULT TO BREACH WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
YET ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL SETTLE FOR THICKENING PERIOD OF
MID CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A SOMEWHAT EAST OF SOUTH
SURFACE COMPONENT WILL CHALLENGE THE WARMING POTENTIAL...AND EVEN
MODEST MIXING DEPTHS SUGGEST COMING UP JUST A BIT SHY OF PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

SHARPENING TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED
SYSTEM. FAIRLY WARM AIR LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA AND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY OTHER PRECIP TYPES ALL THE
WAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AT THEIR COLDEST TUESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...BUT AS MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES APPROACH 8C/KM...ALONG WITH INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
HIGH BASED RETURNS LATER AT NIGHT...AND HAVE VARIED MENTION FROM
A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FAR NORTHWEST...TO JUST A FEW SPRINKLES
EAST.

OPEN NORTHERN STREAM PORTION TO WAVE SHOWN IN MODELS WITH VARIOUS
DEGREES OF PROGRESSION...AND LATEST ECMWF HAS REALLY TAKEN OVER
WITH ANOMALOUSLY QUICK PACE TO DEEPER LIFT FORCING...ACTUALLY
MOSTLY GONE FROM AREA BY 18Z WED. PREFER A MORE MODEST TRANSLATION
TO WAVE PER ENSEMBLE MEAN/GFS TIMING...WHICH WOULD BRING BEST
PRECIP CHANCES DURING LATER MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. STILL LOOKING AT SITUATION WITH TEMPS
ALOFT COOLING APPRECIABLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND WOULD CERTAINLY
OPEN THE DOOR FOR A MIX/CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHTER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR KHON-KMML CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY EASTERN PORTION
OF THIS ZONE. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...PRECIP MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW...BUT SHEARING PAST OF DEEPER LIFT FORCING BY EVENING SHOULD
KEEP ACCUMULATIONS EVEN MORE MINIMAL. PRECIP THREAT SHOULD BE
PRETTY MUCH OVER BY LATER EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ENERGY IN TROUGH IS TREATED SOMEWHAT
DIFFERENTLY BY MODELS ONCE AGAIN...BUT GENERAL IDEA OF HAVING WAVE
STARTING TO COLLAPSE IN SCALE AND WRAP UP TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY A COMMON ELEMENT. WHILE A
MAJORITY OF IMPACT FROM THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA...HAVE KEPT A MODEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES AGAIN ARE A BIT TOWARD THE WHITE VERSUS WET SIDE...
AND HAVE AGAIN MENTIONED SOME SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST...
ESPECIALLY BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER PULSE OF COLD
ADVECTION WORKS IN BEHIND DEEPENING SYSTEM. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A WATCHFUL EYE ON HOW RAPIDLY SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND HOW MUCH PHASING
OCCURS WITH NORTHERN STREAM...BECAUSE SUCH SYSTEMS WILL OFTEN
CREEP A BIT MORE NORTHWEST THAN PROGGED.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT BEHIND THE WAVE DEEPENING TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY...APPEARS LARGER SCALE SHIFT TO RIDGING WILL START TO BRING
WARMING TREND BACK TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
START OF WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH SOUTHERN EDGE OF LIFT FORCING
WITH WAVE TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY THICKEN UP CLOUDS A BIT ON
SATURDAY BUT WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST. WARMING MAY
NOT REACH POTENTIAL FROM INCREASING 925 HPA TEMPS WITH CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT...BUT DRY CHARACTER TO AIRMASS
SHOULD BALANCE AT LEAST A SHARE OF THIS IMPEDANCE. SOMEWHAT MORE
VARIANCE IN SPECIFIC SOLUTIONS BY SUNDAY IN TERMS OF SURFACE
PATTERN...BUT GENERAL AGREEMENT IN PLACE OVERALL. WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE MAY LIMP INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
A MODERATION TO TEMPS WITH TREND TOWARD GREATER SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR
FLURRY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTING LITTLE IMPACT TO CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AND PICKING UP MID MORNING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM







000
FXUS63 KUNR 141708
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODEST WAVE MOVING THROUGH NWRLY UPPER FLOW IS PRODUCING A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER WRN/S CTRL SD. HAVE PUT SOME LOW POPS IN
TO ADDRESS THIS AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THE MAIN AXIS CROSSING WRN SD
AT THIS TIME. STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS
BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
OVER SW ND...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT OVER ERN MT INTO
CNTRL WY. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT OVER THE CWA...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW ARE CROSSING THE WESTERN ND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
PASSING WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT A FEW OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CLIP PARTS OF NW/CNTRL SD THIS MORNING. HAVE THROWN
IN MENTION OF OCCASIONAL FLURRIES JUST TILL 15Z. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY...BUT BREAK
DOWN AS A STRONG WAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS INTO ERN MONTANA WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS INTO SD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA. PRECIP WILL
START AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL AS THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GETTING
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY. THE COLDER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT UNSURE HOW MUCH AT THIS TIME.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODELS IN DECENT WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE CARVING OUT A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WITH BEST FORCING THOUGH THE DAY...WITH GFS TRENDING
MUCH DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FOLLOWED SREF POPS/QPF.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER
TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ON THE SD PLAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...77
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 141708
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODEST WAVE MOVING THROUGH NWRLY UPPER FLOW IS PRODUCING A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER WRN/S CTRL SD. HAVE PUT SOME LOW POPS IN
TO ADDRESS THIS AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THE MAIN AXIS CROSSING WRN SD
AT THIS TIME. STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS
BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
OVER SW ND...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT OVER ERN MT INTO
CNTRL WY. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT OVER THE CWA...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW ARE CROSSING THE WESTERN ND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
PASSING WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT A FEW OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CLIP PARTS OF NW/CNTRL SD THIS MORNING. HAVE THROWN
IN MENTION OF OCCASIONAL FLURRIES JUST TILL 15Z. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY...BUT BREAK
DOWN AS A STRONG WAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS INTO ERN MONTANA WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS INTO SD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA. PRECIP WILL
START AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL AS THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GETTING
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY. THE COLDER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT UNSURE HOW MUCH AT THIS TIME.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODELS IN DECENT WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE CARVING OUT A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WITH BEST FORCING THOUGH THE DAY...WITH GFS TRENDING
MUCH DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FOLLOWED SREF POPS/QPF.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER
TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ON THE SD PLAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...77
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 141708
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODEST WAVE MOVING THROUGH NWRLY UPPER FLOW IS PRODUCING A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER WRN/S CTRL SD. HAVE PUT SOME LOW POPS IN
TO ADDRESS THIS AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THE MAIN AXIS CROSSING WRN SD
AT THIS TIME. STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS
BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
OVER SW ND...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT OVER ERN MT INTO
CNTRL WY. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT OVER THE CWA...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW ARE CROSSING THE WESTERN ND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
PASSING WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT A FEW OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CLIP PARTS OF NW/CNTRL SD THIS MORNING. HAVE THROWN
IN MENTION OF OCCASIONAL FLURRIES JUST TILL 15Z. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY...BUT BREAK
DOWN AS A STRONG WAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS INTO ERN MONTANA WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS INTO SD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA. PRECIP WILL
START AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL AS THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GETTING
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY. THE COLDER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT UNSURE HOW MUCH AT THIS TIME.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODELS IN DECENT WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE CARVING OUT A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WITH BEST FORCING THOUGH THE DAY...WITH GFS TRENDING
MUCH DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FOLLOWED SREF POPS/QPF.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER
TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ON THE SD PLAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...77
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 141708
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODEST WAVE MOVING THROUGH NWRLY UPPER FLOW IS PRODUCING A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER WRN/S CTRL SD. HAVE PUT SOME LOW POPS IN
TO ADDRESS THIS AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THE MAIN AXIS CROSSING WRN SD
AT THIS TIME. STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS
BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
OVER SW ND...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT OVER ERN MT INTO
CNTRL WY. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT OVER THE CWA...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW ARE CROSSING THE WESTERN ND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
PASSING WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT A FEW OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CLIP PARTS OF NW/CNTRL SD THIS MORNING. HAVE THROWN
IN MENTION OF OCCASIONAL FLURRIES JUST TILL 15Z. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY...BUT BREAK
DOWN AS A STRONG WAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS INTO ERN MONTANA WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS INTO SD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA. PRECIP WILL
START AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL AS THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GETTING
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY. THE COLDER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT UNSURE HOW MUCH AT THIS TIME.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODELS IN DECENT WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE CARVING OUT A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WITH BEST FORCING THOUGH THE DAY...WITH GFS TRENDING
MUCH DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FOLLOWED SREF POPS/QPF.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER
TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ON THE SD PLAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...77
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 141618
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1018 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODEST WAVE MOVING THROUGH NWRLY UPPER FLOW IS PRODUCING A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER WRN/S CTRL SD. HAVE PUT SOME LOW POPS IN
TO ADDRESS THIS AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THE MAIN AXIS CROSSING WRN SD
AT THIS TIME. STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS
BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
OVER SW ND...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT OVER ERN MT INTO
CNTRL WY. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT OVER THE CWA...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW ARE CROSSING THE WESTERN ND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
PASSING WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT A FEW OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CLIP PARTS OF NW/CNTRL SD THIS MORNING. HAVE THROWN
IN MENTION OF OCCASIONAL FLURRIES JUST TILL 15Z. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY...BUT BREAK
DOWN AS A STRONG WAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS INTO ERN MONTANA WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS INTO SD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA. PRECIP WILL
START AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL AS THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GETTING
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY. THE COLDER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT UNSURE HOW MUCH AT THIS TIME.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODELS IN DECENT WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE CARVING OUT A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WITH BEST FORCING THOUGH THE DAY...WITH GFS TRENDING
MUCH DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FOLLOWED SREF POPS/QPF.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER
TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH FLURRIES WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...77
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 141618
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1018 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODEST WAVE MOVING THROUGH NWRLY UPPER FLOW IS PRODUCING A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER WRN/S CTRL SD. HAVE PUT SOME LOW POPS IN
TO ADDRESS THIS AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THE MAIN AXIS CROSSING WRN SD
AT THIS TIME. STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS
BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
OVER SW ND...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT OVER ERN MT INTO
CNTRL WY. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT OVER THE CWA...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW ARE CROSSING THE WESTERN ND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
PASSING WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT A FEW OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CLIP PARTS OF NW/CNTRL SD THIS MORNING. HAVE THROWN
IN MENTION OF OCCASIONAL FLURRIES JUST TILL 15Z. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY...BUT BREAK
DOWN AS A STRONG WAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS INTO ERN MONTANA WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS INTO SD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA. PRECIP WILL
START AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL AS THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GETTING
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY. THE COLDER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT UNSURE HOW MUCH AT THIS TIME.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODELS IN DECENT WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE CARVING OUT A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WITH BEST FORCING THOUGH THE DAY...WITH GFS TRENDING
MUCH DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FOLLOWED SREF POPS/QPF.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER
TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH FLURRIES WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...77
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 141618
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1018 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODEST WAVE MOVING THROUGH NWRLY UPPER FLOW IS PRODUCING A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER WRN/S CTRL SD. HAVE PUT SOME LOW POPS IN
TO ADDRESS THIS AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THE MAIN AXIS CROSSING WRN SD
AT THIS TIME. STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS
BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
OVER SW ND...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT OVER ERN MT INTO
CNTRL WY. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT OVER THE CWA...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW ARE CROSSING THE WESTERN ND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
PASSING WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT A FEW OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CLIP PARTS OF NW/CNTRL SD THIS MORNING. HAVE THROWN
IN MENTION OF OCCASIONAL FLURRIES JUST TILL 15Z. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY...BUT BREAK
DOWN AS A STRONG WAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS INTO ERN MONTANA WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS INTO SD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA. PRECIP WILL
START AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL AS THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GETTING
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY. THE COLDER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT UNSURE HOW MUCH AT THIS TIME.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODELS IN DECENT WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE CARVING OUT A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WITH BEST FORCING THOUGH THE DAY...WITH GFS TRENDING
MUCH DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FOLLOWED SREF POPS/QPF.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER
TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH FLURRIES WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...77
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 141618
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1018 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODEST WAVE MOVING THROUGH NWRLY UPPER FLOW IS PRODUCING A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER WRN/S CTRL SD. HAVE PUT SOME LOW POPS IN
TO ADDRESS THIS AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THE MAIN AXIS CROSSING WRN SD
AT THIS TIME. STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS
BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
OVER SW ND...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT OVER ERN MT INTO
CNTRL WY. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT OVER THE CWA...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW ARE CROSSING THE WESTERN ND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
PASSING WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT A FEW OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CLIP PARTS OF NW/CNTRL SD THIS MORNING. HAVE THROWN
IN MENTION OF OCCASIONAL FLURRIES JUST TILL 15Z. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY...BUT BREAK
DOWN AS A STRONG WAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS INTO ERN MONTANA WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS INTO SD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA. PRECIP WILL
START AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL AS THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GETTING
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY. THE COLDER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT UNSURE HOW MUCH AT THIS TIME.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODELS IN DECENT WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE CARVING OUT A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WITH BEST FORCING THOUGH THE DAY...WITH GFS TRENDING
MUCH DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FOLLOWED SREF POPS/QPF.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER
TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH FLURRIES WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...77
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7






000
FXUS63 KABR 141606 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1106 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING. DID UPDATE SOME POPS AND WILL
CONTINUE SHOWER MENTION IN THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATES
HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SEVERAL DETAILS TO KEEP TRACK OF THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO
SHORT TERM FCST. MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THOUGH WILL SYSTEM THAT
AFFECTS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FIRST UP...NEED TO DEAL WITH 700HPA WAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CWA
TODAY. MODELS ARE CONT TO ADVERTISE A WEAK 700HPA THETA-E RIDGE
ASSOC WITH WEAK WAVE...AND OBS UPSTREAM SHOW POCKETS OF LIGHT
SNOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF JAMES RIVER
SHOW VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LEADING TO THOUGHTS OF
SNOW SQUALLS ACROSS THE COTEAU REGION. BASED UPON ND RADAR
RETURNS...HAVE EXPANDED PCPN SHIELD BACK TO THE WEST A BIT...UPPED
POPS AND WENT WITH CATEGORICAL WORDING. HAVE A FEELING THAT ONCE
PCPN MOVES INTO CWA...POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED INTO LIKELY/OCNL
TERRITORY. ALSO..BASED UPON FCST SOUNDINGS AND 925MB HPA
TEMPS...WENT WITH FROZEN VERSUS LIQUID PCPN TYPE. ANTICIPATE HIGH
TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY HIGHS...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO
COLDER.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES OVER AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH STRONG WAA PUSH SEEN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
GFS/NAM POINT TOWARD SOME INCREASING 700HPA OMEGA ASSOC WITH WAA
PUSH. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER DUE TO THIS...AND WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE VIRGA DEVELOP...BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION
OF PCPN AT THIS TIME.

TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IS A TALE OF TWO MODELS. THE NAM IS VERY
BULLISH ON PCPN ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHWAY 12
CORRIDOR. LINGERS DEVELOPING SFC AND 700HPA LOW IN THE NRN PLAINS
A BIT LONGER...ALLOWING SNOW TOTALS TO PILE UP. WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA IS MET...IF YOU BELIEVE THE NAM. THE GFS
AND EC HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENTLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE 700HPA
SYSTEM...AND ARE STRONGER WITH NORTHWARD PUSH OF WAA/DRY SLOTTING
ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF
CONSISTENCY...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN ON AN EC/GFS SOLN FOR THE
TUESDAY NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME. ONE CONCERN IS THAT EVEN THE GFS
WHEN LOOKING AT 850HPA TEMPS AND 850HPA-700HPA CRITICAL THICKNESS
VALUES...FZRA IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW IP/UP/FZRA FOR KABR THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF FZRA TO THE NRN COUNTIES TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH CAA MAKING A RETURN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...ALL PCPN EXCEPT
FOR ACROSS THE SRN/SERN COUNTIES SHOULD HAVE TURNED OVER TO ALL
SNOW.. AGAIN BASED ON LOW LEVEL TEMPS/CRITICAL THICKNESS
VALUES...SRN/SERN CWA SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL MAKE A
MENTION OF FZRA IN THE HWO...BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM GOING FROM MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY ON TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH AND ITS ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY STILL
AFFECTING OUR FAR EASTERN CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MAY HAVE TO
ADD IN A POP FOR THIS LATER ON BUT LEFT IT DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH IN
SOUTHERN CANADA DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WILL BE FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE MAY
BE SOME COLD AIR DAYTIME HEATING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ALOFT...BUT WILL
LEAVE IT DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...THERE ALSO MAY BE A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM AFFECT THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CWA SATURDAY AS
HEIGHTS BUILD INTO SUNDAY. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT
RAIN ON SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL BRING SOME LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CLOUDS TO THE TERMINALS.
ALSO...WITH THE LIFT FROM THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THAT
COULD BRING VISIBILITIES TO 3 MILES OR LESS AT TIMES. THE SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TAKING THE
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 141202 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
702 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW. ALSO...BASED ON RADAR AND
OBS...HAVE INCREASED SNOW SHOWER CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SEVERAL DETAILS TO KEEP TRACK OF THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO
SHORT TERM FCST. MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THOUGH WILL SYSTEM THAT
AFFECTS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FIRST UP...NEED TO DEAL WITH 700HPA WAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CWA
TODAY. MODELS ARE CONT TO ADVERTISE A WEAK 700HPA THETA-E RIDGE
ASSOC WITH WEAK WAVE...AND OBS UPSTREAM SHOW POCKETS OF LIGHT
SNOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF JAMES RIVER
SHOW VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LEADING TO THOUGHTS OF
SNOW SQUALLS ACROSS THE COTEAU REGION. BASED UPON ND RADAR
RETURNS...HAVE EXPANDED PCPN SHIELD BACK TO THE WEST A BIT...UPPED
POPS AND WENT WITH CATEGORICAL WORDING. HAVE A FEELING THAT ONCE
PCPN MOVES INTO CWA...POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED INTO LIKELY/OCNL
TERRITORY. ALSO..BASED UPON FCST SOUNDINGS AND 925MB HPA
TEMPS...WENT WITH FROZEN VERSUS LIQUID PCPN TYPE. ANTICIPATE HIGH
TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY HIGHS...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO
COLDER.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES OVER AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH STRONG WAA PUSH SEEN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
GFS/NAM POINT TOWARD SOME INCREASING 700HPA OMEGA ASSOC WITH WAA
PUSH. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER DUE TO THIS...AND WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE VIRGA DEVELOP...BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION
OF PCPN AT THIS TIME.

TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IS A TALE OF TWO MODELS. THE NAM IS VERY
BULLISH ON PCPN ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHWAY 12
CORRIDOR. LINGERS DEVELOPING SFC AND 700HPA LOW IN THE NRN PLAINS
A BIT LONGER...ALLOWING SNOW TOTALS TO PILE UP. WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA IS MET...IF YOU BELIEVE THE NAM. THE GFS
AND EC HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENTLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE 700HPA
SYSTEM...AND ARE STRONGER WITH NORTHWARD PUSH OF WAA/DRY SLOTTING
ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF
CONSISTENCY...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN ON AN EC/GFS SOLN FOR THE
TUESDAY NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME. ONE CONCERN IS THAT EVEN THE GFS
WHEN LOOKING AT 850HPA TEMPS AND 850HPA-700HPA CRITICAL THICKNESS
VALUES...FZRA IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW IP/UP/FZRA FOR KABR THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF FZRA TO THE NRN COUNTIES TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH CAA MAKING A RETURN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...ALL PCPN EXCEPT
FOR ACROSS THE SRN/SERN COUNTIES SHOULD HAVE TURNED OVER TO ALL
SNOW.. AGAIN BASED ON LOW LEVEL TEMPS/CRITICAL THICKNESS
VALUES...SRN/SERN CWA SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL MAKE A
MENTION OF FZRA IN THE HWO...BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM GOING FROM MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY ON TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH AND ITS ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY STILL
AFFECTING OUR FAR EASTERN CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MAY HAVE TO
ADD IN A POP FOR THIS LATER ON BUT LEFT IT DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH IN
SOUTHERN CANADA DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WILL BE FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE MAY
BE SOME COLD AIR DAYTIME HEATING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ALOFT...BUT WILL
LEAVE IT DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...THERE ALSO MAY BE A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM AFFECT THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CWA SATURDAY AS
HEIGHTS BUILD INTO SUNDAY. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT
RAIN ON SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL BRING SOME LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CLOUDS TO THE TERMINALS.
ALSO...WITH THE LIFT FROM THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THAT
COULD BRING VISIBILITIES TO 3 MILES OR LESS AT TIMES. THE SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TAKING THE
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 141130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK 700 MB
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FOR PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH ONLY
VERY WEAK SUPPORT AND VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...COULD SEE A FEW COLD AIR
INSTABILITY SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES...BUT NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. ADDED ISOLATED FLURRY AND SPRINKLE MENTION TO THE
FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAIN BRISK TODAY AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY
IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED SNOWFALL YESTERDAY IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

WINDS QUICKLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TURN
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST.
LIGHT FLOW AND DECREASING CLOUDS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR A VERY CHILLY
NIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED NEAR 20 INTO THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

STRONG WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...AHEAD OF
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL START TO FOCUS A BIT MORE AS
FEATURES SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...QUITE DRY LOWER LEVELS
WILL BE EXCRUCIATINGLY DIFFICULT TO BREACH WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
YET ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL SETTLE FOR THICKENING PERIOD OF
MID CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A SOMEWHAT EAST OF SOUTH
SURFACE COMPONENT WILL CHALLENGE THE WARMING POTENTIAL...AND EVEN
MODEST MIXING DEPTHS SUGGEST COMING UP JUST A BIT SHY OF PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

SHARPENING TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED
SYSTEM. FAIRLY WARM AIR LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA AND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY OTHER PRECIP TYPES ALL THE
WAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AT THEIR COLDEST TUESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...BUT AS MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES APPROACH 8C/KM...ALONG WITH INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
HIGH BASED RETURNS LATER AT NIGHT...AND HAVE VARIED MENTION FROM
A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FAR NORTHWEST...TO JUST A FEW SPRINKLES
EAST.

OPEN NORTHERN STREAM PORTION TO WAVE SHOWN IN MODELS WITH VARIOUS
DEGREES OF PROGRESSION...AND LATEST ECMWF HAS REALLY TAKEN OVER
WITH ANOMALOUSLY QUICK PACE TO DEEPER LIFT FORCING...ACTUALLY
MOSTLY GONE FROM AREA BY 18Z WED. PREFER A MORE MODEST TRANSLATION
TO WAVE PER ENSEMBLE MEAN/GFS TIMING...WHICH WOULD BRING BEST
PRECIP CHANCES DURING LATER MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. STILL LOOKING AT SITUATION WITH TEMPS
ALOFT COOLING APPRECIABLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND WOULD CERTAINLY
OPEN THE DOOR FOR A MIX/CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHTER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR KHON-KMML CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY EASTERN PORTION
OF THIS ZONE. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...PRECIP MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW...BUT SHEARING PAST OF DEEPER LIFT FORCING BY EVENING SHOULD
KEEP ACCUMULATIONS EVEN MORE MINIMAL. PRECIP THREAT SHOULD BE
PRETTY MUCH OVER BY LATER EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ENERGY IN TROUGH IS TREATED SOMEWHAT
DIFFERENTLY BY MODELS ONCE AGAIN...BUT GENERAL IDEA OF HAVING WAVE
STARTING TO COLLAPSE IN SCALE AND WRAP UP TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY A COMMON ELEMENT. WHILE A
MAJORITY OF IMPACT FROM THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA...HAVE KEPT A MODEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES AGAIN ARE A BIT TOWARD THE WHITE VERSUS WET SIDE...
AND HAVE AGAIN MENTIONED SOME SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST...
ESPECIALLY BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER PULSE OF COLD
ADVECTION WORKS IN BEHIND DEEPENING SYSTEM. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A WATCHFUL EYE ON HOW RAPIDLY SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND HOW MUCH PHASING
OCCURS WITH NORTHERN STREAM...BECAUSE SUCH SYSTEMS WILL OFTEN
CREEP A BIT MORE NORTHWEST THAN PROGGED.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT BEHIND THE WAVE DEEPENING TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY...APPEARS LARGER SCALE SHIFT TO RIDGING WILL START TO BRING
WARMING TREND BACK TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
START OF WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH SOUTHERN EDGE OF LIFT FORCING
WITH WAVE TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY THICKEN UP CLOUDS A BIT ON
SATURDAY BUT WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST. WARMING MAY
NOT REACH POTENTIAL FROM INCREASING 925 HPA TEMPS WITH CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT...BUT DRY CHARACTER TO AIRMASS
SHOULD BALANCE AT LEAST A SHARE OF THIS IMPEDANCE. SOMEWHAT MORE
VARIANCE IN SPECIFIC SOLUTIONS BY SUNDAY IN TERMS OF SURFACE
PATTERN...BUT GENERAL AGREEMENT IN PLACE OVERALL. WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE MAY LIMP INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
A MODERATION TO TEMPS WITH TREND TOWARD GREATER SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. MID CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
PRECIPITATION...DID NOT MENTION AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST IN ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS...CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...









000
FXUS63 KABR 140917
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
417 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SEVERAL DETAILS TO KEEP TRACK OF THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO
SHORT TERM FCST. MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THOUGH WILL BE SYSTEM THAT
AFFECTS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FIRST UP...NEED TO DEAL WITH 700HPA WAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CWA
TODAY. MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE A WEAK 700HPA THETA-E RIDGE ASSOC
WITH WEAK WAVE...AND OBS UPSTREAM SHOW POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF JAMES RIVER SHOW VERY
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LEADING TO THOUGHTS OF SNOW SQUALLS
ACROSS THE COTEAU REGION. BASED UPON ND RADAR RETURNS...HAVE
EXPANDED PCPN SHIELD BACK TO THE WEST A BIT...UPPED POPS AND WENT
WITH CATEGORICAL WORDING. HAVE A FEELING THAT ONCE PCPN MOVES INTO
CWA...POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED INTO LIKELY/OCNL TERRITORY.
ALSO..BASED UPON FCST SOUNDINGS AND 925MB HPA TEMPS...WENT WITH
FROZEN VERSUS LIQUID PCPN TYPE. ANTICIPATE HIGH TEMPS TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY HIGHS...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES OVER AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH STRONG WAA PUSH SEEN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
GFS/NAM POINT TOWARD SOME INCREASING 700HPA OMEGA ASSOC WITH WAA
PUSH. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER DUE TO THIS...AND WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE VIRGA DEVELOP...BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION
OF PCPN AT THIS TIME.

TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IS A TALE OF TWO MODELS. THE NAM IS VERY
BULLISH ON PCPN ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHWAY 12
CORRIDOR. LINGERS DEVELOPING SFC AND 700HPA LOWS IN THE NRN PLAINS
A BIT LONGER...ALLOWING SNOW TOTALS TO PILE UP. WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA IS MET...IF YOU BELIEVE THE NAM. THE GFS
AND EC HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENTLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE 700HPA
SYSTEM...AND ARE STRONGER WITH NORTHWARD PUSH OF WAA/DRY SLOTTING
ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF
CONSISTENCY...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN ON AN EC/GFS SOLN FOR THE
TUESDAY NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME. ONE CONCERN IS THAT EVEN THE GFS
WHEN LOOKING AT 850HPA TEMPS AND 850HPA-700HPA CRITICAL THICKNESS
VALUES...FZRA IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW IP/UP/FZRA FOR KABR THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF FZRA TO THE NRN COUNTIES TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH CAA MAKING A RETURN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...ALL PCPN EXCEPT
ACROSS THE SRN/SERN COUNTIES SHOULD HAVE TURNED OVER TO ALL SNOW...
AGAIN BASED ON LOW LEVEL TEMPS/CRITICAL THICKNESS
VALUES...SRN/SERN CWA SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL MAKE A
MENTION OF FZRA IN THE HWO...BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM GOING FROM MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY ON TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH AND ITS ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY STILL
AFFECTING OUR FAR EASTERN CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MAY HAVE TO
ADD IN A POP FOR THIS LATER ON BUT LEFT IT DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH IN
SOUTHERN CANADA DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WILL BE FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE MAY
BE SOME COLD AIR DAYTIME HEATING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ALOFT...BUT WILL
LEAVE IT DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...THERE ALSO MAY BE A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM AFFECT THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CWA SATURDAY AS
HEIGHTS BUILD INTO SUNDAY. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT
RAIN ON SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRONGER NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KABR AND KATY OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS MID
MONDAY MORNING WITH LCL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF KABR AND KATY AFT 18Z MONDAY.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 140910
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
410 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK 700 MB
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FOR PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH ONLY
VERY WEAK SUPPORT AND VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...COULD SEE A FEW COLD AIR
INSTABILITY SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES...BUT NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. ADDED ISOLATED FLURRY AND SPRINKLE MENTION TO THE
FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAIN BRISK TODAY AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY
IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED SNOWFALL YESTERDAY IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

WINDS QUICKLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TURN
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST.
LIGHT FLOW AND DECREASING CLOUDS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR A VERY CHILLY
NIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED NEAR 20 INTO THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

STRONG WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...AHEAD OF
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL START TO FOCUS A BIT MORE AS
FEATURES SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...QUITE DRY LOWER LEVELS
WILL BE EXCRUCIATINGLY DIFFICULT TO BREACH WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
YET ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL SETTLE FOR THICKENING PERIOD OF
MID CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A SOMEWHAT EAST OF SOUTH
SURFACE COMPONENT WILL CHALLENGE THE WARMING POTENTIAL...AND EVEN
MODEST MIXING DEPTHS SUGGEST COMING UP JUST A BIT SHY OF PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

SHARPENING TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED
SYSTEM. FAIRLY WARM AIR LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA AND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY OTHER PRECIP TYPES ALL THE
WAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AT THEIR COLDEST TUESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...BUT AS MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES APPROACH 8C/KM...ALONG WITH INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
HIGH BASED RETURNS LATER AT NIGHT...AND HAVE VARIED MENTION FROM
A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FAR NORTHWEST...TO JUST A FEW SPRINKLES
EAST.

OPEN NORTHERN STREAM PORTION TO WAVE SHOWN IN MODELS WITH VARIOUS
DEGREES OF PROGRESSION...AND LATEST ECMWF HAS REALLY TAKEN OVER
WITH ANOMALOUSLY QUICK PACE TO DEEPER LIFT FORCING...ACTUALLY
MOSTLY GONE FROM AREA BY 18Z WED. PREFER A MORE MODEST TRANSLATION
TO WAVE PER ENSEMBLE MEAN/GFS TIMING...WHICH WOULD BRING BEST
PRECIP CHANCES DURING LATER MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. STILL LOOKING AT SITUATION WITH TEMPS
ALOFT COOLING APPRECIABLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND WOULD CERTAINLY
OPEN THE DOOR FOR A MIX/CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHTER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR KHON-KMML CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY EASTERN PORTION
OF THIS ZONE. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...PRECIP MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW...BUT SHEARING PAST OF DEEPER LIFT FORCING BY EVENING SHOULD
KEEP ACCUMULATIONS EVEN MORE MINIMAL. PRECIP THREAT SHOULD BE
PRETTY MUCH OVER BY LATER EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ENERGY IN TROUGH IS TREATED SOMEWHAT
DIFFERENTLY BY MODELS ONCE AGAIN...BUT GENERAL IDEA OF HAVING WAVE
STARTING TO COLLAPSE IN SCALE AND WRAP UP TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY A COMMON ELEMENT. WHILE A
MAJORITY OF IMPACT FROM THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA...HAVE KEPT A MODEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES AGAIN ARE A BIT TOWARD THE WHITE VERSUS WET SIDE...
AND HAVE AGAIN MENTIONED SOME SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST...
ESPECIALLY BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER PULSE OF COLD
ADVECTION WORKS IN BEHIND DEEPENING SYSTEM. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A WATCHFUL EYE ON HOW RAPIDLY SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND HOW MUCH PHASING
OCCURS WITH NORTHERN STREAM...BECAUSE SUCH SYSTEMS WILL OFTEN
CREEP A BIT MORE NORTHWEST THAN PROGGED.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT BEHIND THE WAVE DEEPENING TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY...APPEARS LARGER SCALE SHIFT TO RIDGING WILL START TO BRING
WARMING TREND BACK TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
START OF WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH SOUTHERN EDGE OF LIFT FORCING
WITH WAVE TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY THICKEN UP CLOUDS A BIT ON
SATURDAY BUT WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST. WARMING MAY
NOT REACH POTENTIAL FROM INCREASING 925 HPA TEMPS WITH CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT...BUT DRY CHARACTER TO AIRMASS
SHOULD BALANCE AT LEAST A SHARE OF THIS IMPEDANCE. SOMEWHAT MORE
VARIANCE IN SPECIFIC SOLUTIONS BY SUNDAY IN TERMS OF SURFACE
PATTERN...BUT GENERAL AGREEMENT IN PLACE OVERALL. WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE MAY LIMP INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
A MODERATION TO TEMPS WITH TREND TOWARD GREATER SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...STRONGEST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 WHERE GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 30KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY
SUNRISE...EXPECT LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN SWRN MN/NWRN IA TO
BE SEEING GUSTS IN 25-30KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS BELOW 25KT EXPECTED
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75...INCLUDING AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. GUSTY
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JH







000
FXUS63 KUNR 140901
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
301 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THE MAIN AXIS CROSSING WRN SD
AT THIS TIME. STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS
BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
OVER SW ND...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT OVER ERN MT INTO
CNTRL WY. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT OVER THE CWA...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW ARE CROSSING THE WESTERN ND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
PASSING WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT A FEW OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CLIP PARTS OF NW/CNTRL SD THIS MORNING. HAVE THROWN
IN MENTION OF OCCASIONAL FLURRIES JUST TILL 15Z. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY...BUT BREAK
DOWN AS A STRONG WAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS INTO ERN MONTANA WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS INTO SD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA. PRECIP WILL
START AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL AS THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GETTING
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY. THE COLDER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT UNSURE HOW MUCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODELS IN DECENT WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE CARVING OUT A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WITH BEST FORCING THOUGH THE DAY...WITH GFS TRENDING
MUCH DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FOLLOWED SREF POPS/QPF.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER
TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH FLURRIES WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 140901
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
301 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THE MAIN AXIS CROSSING WRN SD
AT THIS TIME. STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS
BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
OVER SW ND...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT OVER ERN MT INTO
CNTRL WY. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT OVER THE CWA...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW ARE CROSSING THE WESTERN ND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
PASSING WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT A FEW OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CLIP PARTS OF NW/CNTRL SD THIS MORNING. HAVE THROWN
IN MENTION OF OCCASIONAL FLURRIES JUST TILL 15Z. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY...BUT BREAK
DOWN AS A STRONG WAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS INTO ERN MONTANA WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS INTO SD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA. PRECIP WILL
START AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL AS THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GETTING
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY. THE COLDER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT UNSURE HOW MUCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODELS IN DECENT WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE CARVING OUT A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WITH BEST FORCING THOUGH THE DAY...WITH GFS TRENDING
MUCH DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FOLLOWED SREF POPS/QPF.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER
TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH FLURRIES WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 140901
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
301 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THE MAIN AXIS CROSSING WRN SD
AT THIS TIME. STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS
BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
OVER SW ND...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT OVER ERN MT INTO
CNTRL WY. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT OVER THE CWA...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW ARE CROSSING THE WESTERN ND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
PASSING WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT A FEW OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CLIP PARTS OF NW/CNTRL SD THIS MORNING. HAVE THROWN
IN MENTION OF OCCASIONAL FLURRIES JUST TILL 15Z. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY...BUT BREAK
DOWN AS A STRONG WAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS INTO ERN MONTANA WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS INTO SD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA. PRECIP WILL
START AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL AS THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GETTING
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY. THE COLDER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT UNSURE HOW MUCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODELS IN DECENT WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE CARVING OUT A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WITH BEST FORCING THOUGH THE DAY...WITH GFS TRENDING
MUCH DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FOLLOWED SREF POPS/QPF.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER
TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH FLURRIES WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 140901
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
301 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THE MAIN AXIS CROSSING WRN SD
AT THIS TIME. STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS
BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
OVER SW ND...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT OVER ERN MT INTO
CNTRL WY. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT OVER THE CWA...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW ARE CROSSING THE WESTERN ND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
PASSING WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT A FEW OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CLIP PARTS OF NW/CNTRL SD THIS MORNING. HAVE THROWN
IN MENTION OF OCCASIONAL FLURRIES JUST TILL 15Z. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY...BUT BREAK
DOWN AS A STRONG WAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS INTO ERN MONTANA WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS INTO SD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA. PRECIP WILL
START AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL AS THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GETTING
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY. THE COLDER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT UNSURE HOW MUCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODELS IN DECENT WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE CARVING OUT A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WITH BEST FORCING THOUGH THE DAY...WITH GFS TRENDING
MUCH DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FOLLOWED SREF POPS/QPF.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER
TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH FLURRIES WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7








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