000
FXUS63 KUNR 190918
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
318 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MT INTO
EASTERN ID...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MT INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE PACIFIC NW COAST...FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD.
RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSING THROUGH THE RIDGE IS BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MUCH
OF CENTRAL NEB...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PCPN CLIPPING PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO
IN PLACE ACROSS THESE AREAS. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BEGIN TO
DEVELOP A BIT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FAIRLY STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION ALSO
OCCURRING. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS
ARE SOUTHEASTERLY...BREEZY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR
SOUTHERN SD.

VERY WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS
THERMAL RIDGE PASSES OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
80S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME LOWER 90S LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN WY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AS TEMPS RISE AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS LOOK TO BE ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN SD...WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND
45 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
HARDING AND PERKINS COUNTIES. THESE WINDS WILL CONITNUE TO BRING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE LOW 60S AND POSSIBLY MID 60S IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A DRY LINE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL WY BY THE AFTERNOON AND LIKELY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO AT LEAST CAMPBELL CO WY DURING THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN WY.

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ACORSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT MAINLY THIS
MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION REMAIN OVER
THIS AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OVER WESTERN SD BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR ANY
STORMS TO DEVELOP BEYOND THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IF A STORM WERE TO
GET GOING...IT WOULD BE IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
SEVERE. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE BLACK HILLS AS CAP IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN ENOUGH THAT A STORM
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL GENERALLY BE
TONIGHT...THOUGH ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED...AS LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AGAIN IN THE EVENING AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD STILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THURSDAY MORNING...SLOWING
DOWN AS IT MOVES FURTHER EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR STORMS
LOOK TO BE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN VICINITY OF
THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO
LOOKS POSSIBLE TOWARD CENTRAL SD. DRIER AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIR
MASS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S...WARMEST TOWARD CENTRAL SD. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS IN THE MORNING AND
MIDDAY HOURS...AT LEAST FOR A BRIEF TIME. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THURSDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAISN. THIS COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS
AN UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS ANCHORED OVER THE MIDWEST. SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL
MEANDER THROUGH THE CWA WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF UPPER
LOW. MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SUPPORTING INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. COULD BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR TSRA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BRINGING LAST
ROUND OF TSRA TO THE AREA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
SYSTEM. MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLOWLY DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. A
COUPLE OF RIDGE RIDERS MIGHT BRING ISOLATED TSRA TO PARTS OF THE
CWA...BUT IT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90F
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO CENTRAL
SD EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP ON
THE SD PLAINS TODAY. CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE SMALL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT...BUT IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP
THEY WILL CREATE LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS. THE COOL FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON

000
FXUS63 KABR 190856
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
356 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE MAIN CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING IS LIMITED TO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IT IS HARD TO PICK OUT THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HOWEVER...MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND
TRACK ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DOES RESULT IN MOST CONVECTION REMAINING ELEVATED TODAY...SO
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN GENERAL THUNDER...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE TRANSPORTING GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD HOWEVER...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE
RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S TODAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE.

A STRONG 40+ KT LLJ SETS UP OVERNIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH STRONG
THETA-E ADVECTION...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. STORMS
MAY BE STRONG OVERNIGHT AS VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE EXTENT OF THE
LEFT OVER DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL INFLUENCE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH/COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS OUR CWA. CAPE
VALUES ARE RISING INTO THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ALONG
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING 0-6 SHEAR...THERE
CERTAINLY IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY. THE
INHIBITING FACTORS HOWEVER WILL BE RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 700
MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 13 C ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ON
THE EDGE OF THE CAP ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA.

FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW REORGANIZES WITH THE LOW CENTER
INTENSIFYING OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. MULTIPLE WAVES OF
ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE
SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWA. MODEL
DIFFERENCES LIMIT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.  NOT ONLY DO
MODELS DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT THE
NAM PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD MUCH MORE QUICKLY AS COMPARED
TO THE ECMWF/GFS...RESULTING IN 700 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 5
TO 10 C ACROSS THE CWA. WHEREAS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW 10 TO 15 C
ACROSS THE CWA. SO...WHETHER THE CAP IS WEAK ENOUGH OR WHETHER
THERE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME THE CAP IS YET TO
BE SEEN. HOWEVER...IF EITHER OF THE TWO HAPPEN...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE TO RAPID AND STRONG CONVECTION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL JUST BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP BETWEEN IT AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW TO THE WEST WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD...TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
ON MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. STRONG
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG AND LIS BETWEEN -8 AND -10 ACROSS
THE CWA. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE CAP FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LOOKS LIKE
THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE CAPPED OFF...BUT THE STRONG INSTABILITY
MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE CAP ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY NIGHT IS
LOOKING A BIT MORE IFFY AT THIS TIME AS H7 TEMPS RISE INTO THE +14
TO +16 DEGREE RANGE. THE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE SHOWING A STRONGER
CAP FRIDAY NIGHT VS SATURDAY NIGHT...SO FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE
OPTED TO STICK WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR BOTH PERIODS. THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES NORTH...THEN IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL FINALLY SEE A DRY
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AND MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KFSD 190837
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
337 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

SHORT WAVE DRIFTING OVER AREA TODAY FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE
SOME LIFT AND CONVERGENCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS INSTABILITY
STEADILY INCREASES. LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO INCREASE SLOWLY...THROUGH
HAVE DOUBTS THAT MUCH SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL INITIATE LATE
IN THE DAY AS WAVE WILL ALMOST BE ON ITS WAY OUT. ACTIVITY SHOULD
THEREFORE BE MOSTLY ELEVATED. WITH MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS MARGINAL
AT BEST...NOT OUTLOOKING SEVERE STORMS BUT HAVING THE LOW 5
PERCENT THREAT FOR OUR AREA AS SPC DOES SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH LOW
LEVEL WARMING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER...BUT WILL KEEP
HIGHS BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES DUE TO CLOUD DOVER ASSOCIATED WITH
WAVE. THIS WILL ALSO BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR IN THE HEATING FOR ANY
SURFACE BASED STORMS...AND ALSO ANY SEVERE THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WITH WAVE MOVING OUT BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING TO
INCREASE...A STORM THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...OR AT
LEAST RETURN LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL OF COURSE BE
WARMER AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...AND WE START THINKING
ABOUT MODEST SUMMERTIME HUMID CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

THURSDAY THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LIKELY TO START WITH MORE NON
SEVERE ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM TONIGHT. TIMING AND COVERAGE
UNCERTAIN AS IT USUALLY IS WITH THESE TYPE OF STORMS. HOWEVER
LATER IN THE DAY CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME SURFACE BASED STORMS. WITH BETTER HEATING AND INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS FOR STORMS...SOME MODEST SEVERE THREAT SEEMS
TO BE THERE FOR LATE THURSDAY OVER THE AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE
BEST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND INSTABILITY BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR AREA...WITH THE RESULTING LIFT EXTENDING
INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND PERHAPS UP TO BKX. ORGANIZED SEVERE SEEMS
POSSIBLE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER THE LATE DAY STORMS AFFECT THE
AREA TO THE WEST. AGAIN TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAIN AND IT IS
HARD TO SQUEEZE OUT STRONGER THAN HIGH CHANCE OR BARELY LIKELY
POPS...BUT THERE SEEMS A DECENT CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT FOR
WHERE STORMS AFFECT THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE
TO BECOME A BIT MORE SUMMERLIKE THURSDAY.

WESTERN USA TROUGH APPROACHING WILL BRING CONTINUED HUMID
CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED STORMS AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS AND ALSO THE SEVERE
THREAT MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH
IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK THOUGH FOR NOW HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDANCE CONTINUING SOME CHANCE
INTO MONDAY. SOME DECREASE IN HUMIDITY SEEMS LIKELY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DECENTLY WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AFTER 09Z TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL EXPANDING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE STORMS...HOWEVER EXPECTED AREAL
COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS FOR THE KHON TAF LOCATION...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ON EXACT TIMING. INCREASING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS AT
OR ABOVE 20KTS FOR MOST AREAS 19/17Z-20/01Z.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH

000
FXUS63 KABR 190530 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1230 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS CURRENTLY CONDITIONS
ARE FAIRLY STABLE ACROSS THE CWA. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES THIS WEEK AND
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

TONIGHT...GREATEST INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN
SD WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF IS PROVIDING AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO TSTORM FORMATION. THE LLJ INCREASES TO
AROUND 25 KTS THIS EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
COMBINED WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND LIMITED CIN...ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE AREA FROM THE BLACK
HILLS.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WILL HELP KICK OFF
SOME STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHAT
OVERDONE THE NAM DOES PLACE 4000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE EAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH A LLJ INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KTS AND
ALMOST NO CAP STORMS SHOULD EASILY BEGIN TO FIRE OFF AS SOON AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED.

THURSDAY...THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST BECOME MUCH MORE CHALLENGING.
MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON TIMING THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW ACROSS
THE REGION. THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE GFS. THIS
WOULD IMPACT THE AREAS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY AND ANY INHIBITION.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE EAST STILL HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF
SEEING SEVERE STORMS. H7 TEMPS ON THE GFS FROM +10 TO +13 FROM THE
JAMES RIVER EAST AND OVER 3000 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG WITH A 30 KT TO
40 KT LLJ MAY LEAD TO AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER PATTERN FEATURES SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER ACTIVE TIME PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SFC LOW WILL ALSO BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER SD/NEB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. SFC DEWPOINTS COULD
REACH AND EXCEED 70 DEGREES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN
CWA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
700 MB TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +14 TO +16 ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...SLIGHTLY COOLER FARTHER WEST. THIS CAP SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS
CONVECTION GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY REAL STRONG SHORTWAVE DURING THE
DAYTIME. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES AS
WEAK IMPULSE PULLS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS. WITH LOW LEVEL JET CRANKING UP...COULD SEE BETTER STORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL SEE STORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS SFC LOW LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA AND WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AS WELL. THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE FINALLY
KICKS EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A SFC FRONT SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS WILL SWITCH WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND BRING IN
DRIER AIR...AND ALSO A WEAK SFC HIGH MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH SMALL CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY...IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KUNR 190517
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1117 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

CURRENT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING IN FROM THE
PACIFIC. A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO PRODUCE
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WYOMING. SURFACE HIGH IS EAST
OF THE CWA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING IN FROM IDAHO. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S.

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS...ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE. HIGHEST MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING
AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. BEST 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS IS
EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. STRONGEST CAP EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND SO STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH. MODELS ARE
IN DISAGREEMENT ABOUT WHETHER STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING WILL
MAKE IT INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. WITH CAPE
PREDICTED TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE EVENING
AND A LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE
PUSHES THROUGH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY
EVENT...SO LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EXAMINE THAT POSSIBILITY
FURTHER. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE
AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS IN THE LOWER 60S. A DRY LINE SETS UP ALONG THE
WY/SD BORDER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES AND
SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWFA ON THURSDAY WITH
DRY SLOT IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...LEADING TO NEAR ZERO CAPE AND VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE IN ALL BUT OUR FAR ERN CWFA. THUS...MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPS. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PAC NW/NRN
ROCKIES AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A NEARLY DAILY CHANCE FOR TSTMS
UNDER CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT. FLOW THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY ZONAL
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LOW PASSES
TO OUR NORTH...LEADING TO SMALLER CHANCES FOR TSTMS. EVEN WARMER
WEATHER BEGINS TO BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT NE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH ISOLD MORNING LL WIND SHEAR
POSSIBLE ACROSS SCENTRAL SD. A STRONG CAP SHOULD KEEP MOST
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN FA AND EAST WED MORNING
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LL JET. OTHERWISE...AN ISOLD TS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SFC COLD
FRONT...POSSIBLY STEMMING FROM THE BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC

000
FXUS63 KFSD 190403
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1103 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...WITH A PRETTY GOOD SURGE OF
THETAE ADVECTION NOTED LATER TONIGHT. QUESTION BECOMES DO WE
SATURATE ENOUGH TO GET SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION. AND HOW DOES A WEAK
CAP AND DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB IMPACT OUR CONVECTION CHANCES. BEST
CALL RIGHT NOW WOULD BE FOR INCREASING CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELEVATED CAPE EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER 1000
J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE LOW SIDE...THUS ANYTHING TONIGHT
SHOULD BE SUB SEVERE WITH JUST SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. LOWS
SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEAK WAA
REGIME...MAINLY FROM AROUND 60 TO 65.

PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION SCATTERED
ABOUT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER ITS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO EVEN POSSIBLY MOSTLY
SUNNY FOR A PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS WENT AHEAD AND RAISED
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES...WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FORECAST. QUITE
POSSIBLE HIGHS END UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS...BUT
GIVEN CLOUD COVER UNCERTAINTY DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO HIGH AT THIS
POINT. NEXT QUESTION IS DO WE GET ANY MORE CONVECTION THAT FIRES IN
THE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY CLOSER TO SURFACE BASED. DESPITE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SEEN ON 500 MB HEIGHT CHARTS...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
PRETTY MUCH NEUTRAL...WITH THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW AND
MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
THOUGH. NOT MUCH OF A CAP IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH SIGNS OF A WEAK NOSE
OF WARM AIR AROUND 600 MB...AND QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700
MB...WHICH WOULD GET ENTRAINED IN ANY UPDRAFT AND LIKELY NOT ALLOW
US TO FULLY REALIZE THE FORECAST 2000+ J/KG OF CAPE. SO ITS A TOUGH
CALL...BUT MOST HI RES MODELS DO POP SOME STORMS...AND THINKING IS
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AFTER ANY ELEVATED MORNING STORMS WIND DOWN. DEEP SHEAR IS
PRETTY WEAK...ALTHOUGH MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR SOME
MULTICELL ACTIVITY. MOST STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE SUB SEVERE WITH
SMALL HAIL...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED QUARTER SIZE HAIL PRODUCING STORM
SEEMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WE DO GET CAPES UP AND OVER 2000 J/KG.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL SEE THE TAIL END UP THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SWING THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS PARTICULARLY INTERESTING IF SOMETHING CAN
DEVELOP WITH 2500 J/KG CAPE A DECENT SFC TO 3KM BULK SHEAR. NO
DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL FEATURE TO WORK OFF OF BUT THERE IS A MID
LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH SO THAT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GET THINGS
GOING IF THE CAP CAN BREAK. OTHERWISE PRETTY WINDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SO LOWS 65 TO 70 AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUES THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH CHANCES LIKELY BETTER
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST BEGINS TO
WORK ONTO THE PLAINS WHICH HELPS FOCUS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
INCREASES SHEAR ALOFT A BIT AS WELL. WILL JUST BE A MATTER OF
BREAKING THE CAP DURING THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR
SOMEWHERE...LIKELY INT HE WESTERN CWA OR POINTS WEST OF THERE...THEN
FORM INTO A LARGER SCALE MCS AT NIGHT. VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS TIME WITH LOWS 65 TO 70 AND HIGHS 85 TO 95.

SATURDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY LOOKS PRETTY BUSY AS WELL BUT WILL NOT
REALLY TRY TO PIN ANYTHING DOWN AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND THEN A FLAT RIDGE WITH
FAIRLY STRONG WEST WINDS ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH A LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY FLOATING AROUND. OVERALL LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AFTER 09Z TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL EXPANDING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE STORMS...HOWEVER EXPECTED AREAL
COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS FOR THE KHON TAF LOCATION...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ON EXACT TIMING. INCREASING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS AT
OR ABOVE 20KTS FOR MOST AREAS 19/17Z-20/01Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JH

000
FXUS63 KABR 190139 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
839 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING...WILL KEEP CHC THUNDER WEST
RIVER FOR LATE TNT. UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS CURRENTLY CONDITIONS
ARE FAIRLY STABLE ACROSS THE CWA. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES THIS WEEK AND
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

TONIGHT...GREATEST INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN
SD WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF IS PROVIDING AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO TSTORM FORMATION. THE LLJ INCREASES TO
AROUND 25 KTS THIS EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
COMBINED WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND LIMITED CIN...ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE AREA FROM THE BLACK
HILLS.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WILL HELP KICK OFF
SOME STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHAT
OVERDONE THE NAM DOES PLACE 4000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE EAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH A LLJ INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KTS AND
ALMOST NO CAP STORMS SHOULD EASILY BEGIN TO FIRE OFF AS SOON AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED.

THURSDAY...THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST BECOME MUCH MORE CHALLENGING.
MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON TIMING THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE GFS. THIS WOULD
IMPACT THE AREAS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY AND ANY INHIBITION. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE EAST STILL HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF
SEEING SEVERE STORMS. H7 TEMPS ON THE GFS FROM +10 TO +13 FROM
THE JAMES RIVER EAST AND OVER 3000 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG WITH A 30 KT TO
40 KT LLJ MAY LEAD TO AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

UPPER PATTERN FEATURES SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER ACTIVE TIME PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SFC LOW WILL ALSO BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER SD/NEB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. SFC DEWPOINTS COULD
REACH AND EXCEED 70 DEGREES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN
CWA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
700 MB TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +14 TO +16 ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...SLIGHTLY COOLER FARTHER WEST. THIS CAP SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS
CONVECTION GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY REAL STRONG SHORTWAVE DURING THE
DAYTIME. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES AS
WEAK IMPULSE PULLS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS. WITH LOW LEVEL JET CRANKING UP...COULD SEE BETTER STORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL SEE STORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS SFC LOW LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA AND WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AS WELL. THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE FINALLY
KICKS EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A SFC FRONT SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS WILL SWITCH WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND BRING IN
DRIER AIR...AND ALSO A WEAK SFC HIGH MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH SMALL CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY...IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KFSD 182341
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
641 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...WITH A PRETTY GOOD SURGE OF
THETAE ADVECTION NOTED LATER TONIGHT. QUESTION BECOMES DO WE
SATURATE ENOUGH TO GET SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION. AND HOW DOES A WEAK
CAP AND DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB IMPACT OUR CONVECTION CHANCES. BEST
CALL RIGHT NOW WOULD BE FOR INCREASING CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELEVATED CAPE EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER 1000
J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE LOW SIDE...THUS ANYTHING TONIGHT
SHOULD BE SUB SEVERE WITH JUST SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. LOWS
SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEAK WAA
REGIME...MAINLY FROM AROUND 60 TO 65.

PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION SCATTERED
ABOUT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER ITS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO EVEN POSSIBLY MOSTLY
SUNNY FOR A PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS WENT AHEAD AND RAISED
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES...WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FORECAST. QUITE
POSSIBLE HIGHS END UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS...BUT
GIVEN CLOUD COVER UNCERTAINTY DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO HIGH AT THIS
POINT. NEXT QUESTION IS DO WE GET ANY MORE CONVECTION THAT FIRES IN
THE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY CLOSER TO SURFACE BASED. DESPITE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SEEN ON 500 MB HEIGHT CHARTS...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
PRETTY MUCH NEUTRAL...WITH THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW AND
MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
THOUGH. NOT MUCH OF A CAP IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH SIGNS OF A WEAK NOSE
OF WARM AIR AROUND 600 MB...AND QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700
MB...WHICH WOULD GET ENTRAINED IN ANY UPDRAFT AND LIKELY NOT ALLOW
US TO FULLY REALIZE THE FORECAST 2000+ J/KG OF CAPE. SO ITS A TOUGH
CALL...BUT MOST HI RES MODELS DO POP SOME STORMS...AND THINKING IS
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AFTER ANY ELEVATED MORNING STORMS WIND DOWN. DEEP SHEAR IS
PRETTY WEAK...ALTHOUGH MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR SOME
MULTICELL ACTIVITY. MOST STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE SUB SEVERE WITH
SMALL HAIL...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED QUARTER SIZE HAIL PRODUCING STORM
SEEMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WE DO GET CAPES UP AND OVER 2000 J/KG.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL SEE THE TAIL END UP THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SWING THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS PARTICULARLY INTERESTING IF SOMETHING CAN
DEVELOP WITH 2500 J/KG CAPE A DECENT SFC TO 3KM BULK SHEAR. NO
DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL FEATURE TO WORK OFF OF BUT THERE IS A MID
LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH SO THAT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GET THINGS
GOING IF THE CAP CAN BREAK. OTHERWISE PRETTY WINDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SO LOWS 65 TO 70 AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUES THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH CHANCES LIKELY BETTER
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST BEGINS TO
WORK ONTO THE PLAINS WHICH HELPS FOCUS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
INCREASES SHEAR ALOFT A BIT AS WELL. WILL JUST BE A MATTER OF
BREAKING THE CAP DURING THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR
SOMEWHERE...LIKELY INT HE WESTERN CWA OR POINTS WEST OF THERE...THEN
FORM INTO A LARGER SCALE MCS AT NIGHT. VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS TIME WITH LOWS 65 TO 70 AND HIGHS 85 TO 95.

SATURDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY LOOKS PRETTY BUSY AS WELL BUT WILL NOT
REALLY TRY TO PIN ANYTHING DOWN AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND THEN A FLAT RIDGE WITH
FAIRLY STRONG WEST WINDS ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH A LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY FLOATING AROUND. OVERALL LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY MAINLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF
THESE STORMS...HOWEVER EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. INCREASING SOUTHEAST-SOUTH LOW LEVEL
FLOW EXPECTED AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20KTS
LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS AFTER 17Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JH

000
FXUS63 KABR 182330 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
630 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS CURRENTLY CONDITIONS
ARE FAIRLY STABLE ACROSS THE CWA. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES THIS WEEK AND
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

TONIGHT...GREATEST INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN
SD WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF IS PROVIDING AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO TSTORM FORMATION. THE LLJ INCREASES TO
AROUND 25 KTS THIS EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
COMBINED WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND LIMITED CIN...ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE AREA FROM THE BLACK
HILLS.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WILL HELP KICK OFF
SOME STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHAT
OVERDONE THE NAM DOES PLACE 4000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE EAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH A LLJ INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KTS AND
ALMOST NO CAP STORMS SHOULD EASILY BEGIN TO FIRE OFF AS SOON AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED.

THURSDAY...THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST BECOME MUCH MORE CHALLENGING.
MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON TIMING THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE GFS. THIS WOULD
IMPACT THE AREAS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY AND ANY INHIBITION. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE EAST STILL HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF
SEEING SEVERE STORMS. H7 TEMPS ON THE GFS FROM +10 TO +13 FROM
THE JAMES RIVER EAST AND OVER 3000 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG WITH A 30 KT TO
40 KT LLJ MAY LEAD TO AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

UPPER PATTERN FEATURES SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER ACTIVE TIME PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SFC LOW WILL ALSO BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER SD/NEB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. SFC DEWPOINTS COULD
REACH AND EXCEED 70 DEGREES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN
CWA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
700 MB TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +14 TO +16 ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...SLIGHTLY COOLER FARTHER WEST. THIS CAP SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS
CONVECTION GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY REAL STRONG SHORTWAVE DURING THE
DAYTIME. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES AS
WEAK IMPULSE PULLS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS. WITH LOW LEVEL JET CRANKING UP...COULD SEE BETTER STORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL SEE STORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS SFC LOW LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA AND WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AS WELL. THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE FINALLY
KICKS EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A SFC FRONT SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS WILL SWITCH WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND BRING IN
DRIER AIR...AND ALSO A WEAK SFC HIGH MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH SMALL CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY...IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KUNR 182328
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
528 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

CURRENT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING IN FROM THE
PACIFIC. A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO PRODUCE
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WYOMING. SURFACE HIGH IS EAST
OF THE CWA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING IN FROM IDAHO. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S.

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS...ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE. HIGHEST MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING
AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. BEST 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS IS
EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. STRONGEST CAP EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND SO STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH. MODELS ARE
IN DISAGREEMENT ABOUT WHETHER STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING WILL
MAKE IT INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. WITH CAPE
PREDICTED TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE EVENING
AND A LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE
PUSHES THROUGH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY
EVENT...SO LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EXAMINE THAT POSSIBILITY
FURTHER. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE
AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS IN THE LOWER 60S. A DRY LINE SETS UP ALONG THE
WY/SD BORDER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES AND
SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWFA ON THURSDAY WITH
DRY SLOT IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...LEADING TO NEAR ZERO CAPE AND VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE IN ALL BUT OUR FAR ERN CWFA. THUS...MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPS. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PAC NW/NRN
ROCKIES AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A NEARLY DAILY CHANCE FOR TSTMS
UNDER CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT. FLOW THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY ZONAL
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LOW PASSES
TO OUR NORTH...LEADING TO SMALLER CHANCES FOR TSTMS. EVEN WARMER
WEATHER BEGINS TO BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD. TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER STORMS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...POJORLIE

000
FXUS63 KUNR 182102
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
302 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

CURRENT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING IN FROM THE
PACIFIC. A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO PRODUCE
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WYOMING. SURFACE HIGH IS EAST
OF THE CWA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING IN FROM IDAHO. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S.

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS...ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE. HIGHEST MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING
AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. BEST 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS IS
EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. STRONGEST CAP EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND SO STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH. MODELS ARE
IN DISAGREEMENT ABOUT WHETHER STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING WILL
MAKE IT INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. WITH CAPE
PREDICTED TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE EVENING
AND A LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE
PUSHES THROUGH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY
EVENT...SO LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EXAMINE THAT POSSIBILITY
FURTHER. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE
AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS IN THE LOWER 60S. A DRY LINE SETS UP ALONG THE
WY/SD BORDER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES AND
SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE.



&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWFA ON THURSDAY WITH
DRY SLOT IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...LEADING TO NEAR ZERO CAPE AND VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE IN ALL BUT OUR FAR ERN CWFA. THUS...MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPS. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PAC NW/NRN
ROCKIES AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A NEARLY DAILY CHANCE FOR TSTMS
UNDER CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT. FLOW THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY ZONAL
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LOW PASSES
TO OUR NORTH...LEADING TO SMALLER CHANCES FOR TSTMS. EVEN WARMER
WEATHER BEGINS TO BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD. TSTMS WILL DEVELOP
IN NERN WY LATE THIS AFTN THEN SPREAD ACROSS WRN SD THIS
EVENING...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER STORMS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON

000
FXUS63 KFSD 182031
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
331 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...WITH A PRETTY GOOD SURGE OF
THETAE ADVECTION NOTED LATER TONIGHT. QUESTION BECOMES DO WE
SATURATE ENOUGH TO GET SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION. AND HOW DOES A WEAK
CAP AND DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB IMPACT OUR CONVECTION CHANCES. BEST
CALL RIGHT NOW WOULD BE FOR INCREASING CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELEVATED CAPE EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER 1000
J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE LOW SIDE...THUS ANYTHING TONIGHT
SHOULD BE SUB SEVERE WITH JUST SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. LOWS
SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEAK WAA
REGIME...MAINLY FROM AROUND 60 TO 65.

PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION SCATTERED
ABOUT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER ITS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO EVEN POSSIBLY MOSTLY
SUNNY FOR A PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS WENT AHEAD AND RAISED
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES...WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FORECAST. QUITE
POSSIBLE HIGHS END UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS...BUT
GIVEN CLOUD COVER UNCERTAINTY DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO HIGH AT THIS
POINT. NEXT QUESTION IS DO WE GET ANY MORE CONVECTION THAT FIRES IN
THE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY CLOSER TO SURFACE BASED. DESPITE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SEEN ON 500 MB HEIGHT CHARTS...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
PRETTY MUCH NEUTRAL...WITH THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW AND
MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
THOUGH. NOT MUCH OF A CAP IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH SIGNS OF A WEAK NOSE
OF WARM AIR AROUND 600 MB...AND QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700
MB...WHICH WOULD GET ENTRAINED IN ANY UPDRAFT AND LIKELY NOT ALLOW
US TO FULLY REALIZE THE FORECAST 2000+ J/KG OF CAPE. SO ITS A TOUGH
CALL...BUT MOST HI RES MODELS DO POP SOME STORMS...AND THINKING IS
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AFTER ANY ELEVATED MORNING STORMS WIND DOWN. DEEP SHEAR IS
PRETTY WEAK...ALTHOUGH MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR SOME
MULTICELL ACTIVITY. MOST STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE SUB SEVERE WITH
SMALL HAIL...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED QUARTER SIZE HAIL PRODUCING STORM
SEEMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WE DO GET CAPES UP AND OVER 2000 J/KG.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL SEE THE TAIL END UP THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SWING THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS PARTICULARLY INTERESTING IF SOMETHING CAN
DEVELOP WITH 2500 J/KG CAPE A DECENT SFC TO 3KM BULK SHEAR. NO
DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL FEATURE TO WORK OFF OF BUT THERE IS A MID
LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH SO THAT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GET THINGS
GOING IF THE CAP CAN BREAK. OTHERWISE PRETTY WINDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SO LOWS 65 TO 70 AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUES THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH CHANCES LIKELY BETTER
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST BEGINS TO
WORK ONTO THE PLAINS WHICH HELPS FOCUS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
INCREASES SHEAR ALOFT A BIT AS WELL. WILL JUST BE A MATTER OF
BREAKING THE CAP DURING THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR
SOMEWHERE...LIKELY INT HE WESTERN CWA OR POINTS WEST OF THERE...THEN
FORM INTO A LARGER SCALE MCS AT NIGHT. VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS TIME WITH LOWS 65 TO 70 AND HIGHS 85 TO 95.

SATURDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY LOOKS PRETTY BUSY AS WELL BUT WILL NOT
REALLY TRY TO PIN ANYTHING DOWN AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND THEN A FLAT RIDGE WITH
FAIRLY STRONG WEST WINDS ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH A LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY FLOATING AROUND. OVERALL LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH EXPECTED AREAL
COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD

000
FXUS63 KABR 182022
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
322 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS CURRENTLY CONDITIONS
ARE FAIRLY STABLE ACROSS THE CWA. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES THIS WEEK AND
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

TONIGHT...GREATEST INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN
SD WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF IS PROVIDING AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO TSTORM FORMATION. THE LLJ INCREASES TO
AROUND 25 KTS THIS EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
COMBINED WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND LIMITED CIN...ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE AREA FROM THE BLACK
HILLS.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WILL HELP KICK OFF
SOME STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHAT
OVERDONE THE NAM DOES PLACE 4000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE EAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH A LLJ INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KTS AND
ALMOST NO CAP STORMS SHOULD EASILY BEGIN TO FIRE OFF AS SOON AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED.

THURSDAY...THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST BECOME MUCH MORE CHALLENGING.
MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON TIMING THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE GFS. THIS WOULD
IMPACT THE AREAS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY AND ANY INHIBITION. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE EAST STILL HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF
SEEING SEVERE STORMS. H7 TEMPS ON THE GFS FROM +10 TO +13 FROM
THE JAMES RIVER EAST AND OVER 3000 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG WITH A 30 KT TO
40 KT LLJ MAY LEAD TO AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.



.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER PATTERN FEATURES SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER ACTIVE TIME PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SFC LOW WILL ALSO BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER SD/NEB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. SFC DEWPOINTS COULD
REACH AND EXCEED 70 DEGREES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN
CWA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
700 MB TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +14 TO +16 ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...SLIGHTLY COOLER FARTHER WEST. THIS CAP SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS
CONVECTION GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY REAL STRONG SHORTWAVE DURING THE
DAYTIME. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES AS
WEAK IMPULSE PULLS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS. WITH LOW LEVEL JET CRANKING UP...COULD SEE BETTER STORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL SEE STORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS SFC LOW LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA AND WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AS WELL. THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE FINALLY
KICKS EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A SFC FRONT SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS WILL SWITCH WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND BRING IN
DRIER AIR...AND ALSO A WEAK SFC HIGH MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH SMALL CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY...IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR TSRA TO MAKE IT TO THE KPIR TAF SITE LATE TONIGHT AS
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION PUSHES EAST INTO CENTRAL SD. WHETHER OR
NOT IT MAKES IT TO KPIR IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND AREAL COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE SPARSE LATE TONIGHT SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP OUT OF TAFS AT
THIS TIME. TSRA ALSO POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY NEAR KATY. BUT AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN THIS AFFECTING THE
TAF SITE IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT BUT FUTURE TAFS MAY INCLUDE
MENTION OF TSRA.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KABR 181750 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY IS KEEPING THE WEATHER FAIRLY
QUIET. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE DAYTIME FORECAST PERIOD. MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO EVENING AND OVERNIGHT POPS. INSTABILITY IS STILL
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN SD THIS EVENING...BUT EASTWARD
PROPAGATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO WEST RIVER TONIGHT. HI- RES
MODELS REFLECT THIS THINKING.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RETURN FLOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AS WELL AS MLCAPE
VALUES RISING INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. NO SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC FORCING TO SPEAK OF...BUT IF ANYTHING GETS GOING IN THE
BLACK HILL REGION...IT MAY PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA. MODELS
ARE SHOWING AROUND 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...SO IF STORMS CAN MAKE
IT THIS FAR EAST...THERE CERTAINLY IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA.

THE LLJ INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
ABOUT 30 KTS NOSING INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA. THIS MAY INDUCE
ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING WILL BE A LITTLE TOO
EARLY AND HEATING WILL BE LIMITED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES EASTWARD...AND A 30 TO 40
KT LLJ JET AGAIN SETS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO RISE HOWEVER...AND WITH THE CHANCE OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...IT SEEMS AS
THOUGH THERE WILL BE LIMITED AFTERNOON HEATING AND AN INCREASING
CAP. LEFT THE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
ON THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
TRACK EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY
EVENING...THEN SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD DURING THE
NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA
THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL SEE A DECENT MOISTURE SURGE ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM. STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE EAST...WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 5000 J/KG
FRIDAY...AND BETWEEN 3500-4500 J/KG ON SATURDAY. BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE THE BEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. HOWEVER...CURRENT
H7 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE +12 TO +16 DEGREE RANGE
ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE TOO MUCH OF A CAP TO OVERCOME.
THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY...WHICH MAY MAKE THAT A
BETTER DAY TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN CWA. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR TSRA TO MAKE IT TO THE KPIR TAF SITE LATE TONIGHT AS
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION PUSHES EAST INTO CENTRAL SD. WHETHER OR
NOT IT MAKES IT TO KPIR IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND AREAL COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE SPARSE LATE TONIGHT SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP OUT OF TAFS AT
THIS TIME. TSRA ALSO POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY NEAR KATY. BUT AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN THIS AFFECTING THE
TAF SITE IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT BUT FUTURE TAFS MAY INCLUDE
MENTION OF TSRA.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE/TMT
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KFSD 181717
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1217 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING DOWN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
DEPARTING OUR EASTERN ZONES SHORTLY. HOWEVER OUR MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY ZONES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN THE NEAR TERM AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL FIRE OFF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACCAS. THERE
MAY BE BETTER CHANCES OF THIS HAPPENING SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. BUT CERTAINLY LOW POPS ARE WARRANTED IN OUR MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY ZONES EARLY TODAY. OTHERWISE THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...GOING WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE READINGS AS
THE BIAS CORRECTED STILL LOOKS TOO COOL.

CONVECTION CHANCES TONIGHT ARE UNCERTAIN. A COUPLE OF THE HIRES
MODELS WERE BRINGING RAINFALL CHANCES LATE TONIGHT ALMOST THROUGH
OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHICH DID NOT SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF STABILITY EAST OF I 29. BUT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES WEST OF I 29 AND THETAE ADVECTION...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE AN ELEVATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GET GOING FROM
I 29 WESTWARD LATE TONIGHT. BUT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A VERY LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SET UP SHOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL SEND PERIODIC SHORT WAVES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS...PRIMARILY AT NIGHT IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW IS MAINTAINED OVER THE WESTERN U.S...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE A COMMON FEATURE AHEAD OF IT.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS UNSETTLED. RIDGING THROUGHOUT THE LOW
LEVELS CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD GIVING OUR FORECAST AREA AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF THETAE ADVECTION. NAM SHOWS
DEEP ASCENT AND VEERING PROFILES. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE WIND
SPEEDS LOOK STRONGER IN THE LOW LEVELS THAN IN THE MID LEVELS...
AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS VERY WEAK. BUT CAPPING DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE IN PLACE...SO MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION SHOULD BE AROUND
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. ALMOST WENT LIKELY POPS IN AN AREA BOUNDED
BY HURON...TO MITCHELL...SIOUX FALLS AND BROOKINGS. HOWEVER THERE
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS HIRES MODELS ON EXACT
PLACEMENT AND BEST TIMING. IN FACT THE WRF ARW IS NOTICEABLY
ABSENT OF ANY QPF AT ALL WHICH WAS AN OUTLIER WITH THE REST OF THE
HIRES MODELS AND ALSO THE GLOBAL MODELS. BUT DID OPT TO GO
CERTAINTY WORDING IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. THIS TIME AROUND...
WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...THE COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES SUCH AS
THE MET AND BIAS CORRECTED READINGS LOOKED BETTER THEN THE WARMER
GUIDANCES.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL WARRANTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET...30
TO 40 KNOTS...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WIND PROFILES ARE
VERY STRONGLY VEERING...AND WILL MENTION A POSSIBILITY OF LOW END
SEVERE IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. WITH THE SOUTH WIND FIRMLY IN
PLACE...LOWS WILL BE WARM WITH MANY GUIDANCE VALUES LOOKING TOO
COOL. THE MET...MAV AND ECMWF LOOKED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
TEMPERATURES.

THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THURSDAY MORNING...GIVING AREAS EAST OF I
29 THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL BEFORE NOON. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE A LOT GOING ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OTHER THAN REAL SPOTTY
RAIN CHANCES DUE TO PURE INSTABILITY. THE HIGHEST POPS BARELY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY ARE WARRANTED IN SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE 700MB
TEMPERATURES ARE THE COOLEST...AT ABOUT +12C. BUT WEST OF THERE IT
COULD BE REAL TOUGH TO GET ANYTHING GOING DESPITE WARM AND MUGGY
LOW LEVEL AIR. THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVE EASTWARD WHICH WILL GIVE OUR AREA ANOTHER
SHOT AT CONVECTION...POSSIBLY LOW END SEVERE HERE AND THERE.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IN
GENERAL THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LARGE SCALE. THEY CONTINUE TO PLACE THE VERY LARGE UPPER
LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN IT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE PATTERN DOES
LOOK UNSETTLED AND UNSTABLE. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CERTAINLY DEPEND ON THE DEGREE OF CAPPING...WHICH COULD BE PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT IN OUR AREA AT LEAST EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. THE ECMWF
HAS A STOUT +14C AT 700MB OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...THEREFORE LOWERED POPS. THEN THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WHICH
HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED BY THE VARIOUS MODELS MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF TAKES THE WAVE UP AND
OVER THE CAPPING...GIVING OUR AREA ONLY A GLANCING BLOW THROUGH
OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. THE GFS DIVES IT FURTHER
EASTWARD IMPACTING OUR AREA A LITTLE MORE...WHILE THE GEM GLOBAL
IS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. IF WE ARE CAPPED...THE RAINFALL WILL
HINGE OF COURSE ON LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...WHICH AT THIS TIME LOOK
TO BARELY NUDGE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE STALLING. SO FOR
NOW...KEEPING POPS BELOW THE LIKELY THRESHOLD IS WARRANTED... WITH
DECREASING POPS HEADING SOUTHWARD.

THE ECMWF THEN BRINGS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND BELIEVE THIS IS THE MAIN ONE TO WATCH. AS
THE PARENT UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN HIGH PLAINS...
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL IN OUR FORECAST AREA TO +10C TO +12C
AT 700MB...MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION. NOW IF THIS WAVE
QUICKLY EJECTS AS ADVERTISED BY MANY OF THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DWINDLE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. SO A GRADUAL LOWERING OF POPS FOR THOSE TWO DAYS MAY BE IN
ORDER WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

THEN BEYOND THE EXTENDED...THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE WHICH COULD VERY WELL GIVE US QUIETER WEATHER FOR A WHILE...
QUICKLY LOOKING MORE LIKE A SUMMERTIME PATTERN. THE TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MORE SUMMERLIKE FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD 80S TO AROUND 90 COMMON FOR HIGHS...WARM
MUGGY LOWS...AND DEW POINT VALUES WELL INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH EXPECTED AREAL
COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJF
LONG TERM...MJF
AVIATION...CHENARD

000
FXUS63 KUNR 181637
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1037 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
ND...WITH NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...WITH UPPER LOW STILL ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEB.
RELATIVELY QUIET WX ACROSS OUR AREA FOR A CHANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING. SKIES ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S AND LIGHT WINDS.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE WEAK RIDGE TO
THE WEST AND BRINGS A GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE DAY WILL START OFF
RATHER PLEASANT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AS THE RIDGE SLIDES A
BIT FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 70S ACROSS THE
BLACK HILLS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...BECOMING BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN SD.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP TOWARD MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY BY THAT TIME
AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES. STRONG INSTABILITY IS PROGGED FOR
THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRING IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. CAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG ARE ANTICIPATED
OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
GENERALLY OVER WESTERN SD. SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT STRENGTHEN AS THE DAY GOES ON. SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE TIMING AND TRACKING THE WAVE PRETTY WELL...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS FROM AFTER 21Z TO AROUND 06Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM THE BLACK HILLS
AREA...SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA...WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...
ESPECIALLY EARLY ON...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO BECOMING A BIGGER
THREAT INTO THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED BY DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL JET OVER THE SD PLAINS IN THE EVENING. STORMS SHOULD BECOME
ELEVATED LATE IN THE EVENING AND THEREFORE DECREASE THE SEVERE
THREAT OVERNIGHT TOWARD CENTRAL SD. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
IN PLACE AND FAIRLY STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...WILL KEEP LINGERING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FROM
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST AREAS AS
THERMAL RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S OVER
THE BLACK HILLS. THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A PRETTY
STRONG CAP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...THE THREAT FOR
STORMS LOOKS PRETTY LOW...AT LEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...UNLESS
ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CAN HELP TO LOOSEN THE CAP. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCES OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA EASTWARD TO CENTRAL SD. BRISK
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA...KEEPING
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...SEVERE STORMS WOULD
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WEAK COOL FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SIGNIFICANT CAP MAY IMPEDE
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...BUT HAVE LEFT POPS IN GIVEN RATHER
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/MOVEMENT OF FRONT AS WELL AS STABILITY
PARAMETERS. TEMPERATURES QUITE UNCERTAIN.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST/UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH A PARADE OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CWA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LEE
TROUGH/LEFTOVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS FOR TSRA ACTIVITY.
FLOW THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SMALLER CHANCES FOR TSRA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MAY THEN BECOME QUITE ENTRENCHED THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HOT
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD. TSTMS WILL DEVELOP
IN NERN WY LATE THIS AFTN THEN SPREAD ACROSS WRN SD THIS
EVENING...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON

000
FXUS63 KABR 181540 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1040 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY IS KEEPING THE WEATHER FAIRLY
QUIET. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE DAYTIME FORECAST PERIOD. MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO EVENING AND OVERNIGHT POPS. INSTABILITY IS STILL
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN SD THIS EVENING...BUT EASTWARD
PROPAGATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO WEST RIVER TONIGHT. HI- RES
MODELS REFLECT THIS THINKING.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RETURN FLOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AS WELL AS MLCAPE
VALUES RISING INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. NO SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC FORCING TO SPEAK OF...BUT IF ANYTHING GETS GOING IN THE
BLACK HILL REGION...IT MAY PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA. MODELS
ARE SHOWING AROUND 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...SO IF STORMS CAN MAKE
IT THIS FAR EAST...THERE CERTAINLY IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA.

THE LLJ INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
ABOUT 30 KTS NOSING INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA. THIS MAY INDUCE
ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING WILL BE A LITTLE TOO
EARLY AND HEATING WILL BE LIMITED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES EASTWARD...AND A 30 TO 40
KT LLJ JET AGAIN SETS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO RISE HOWEVER...AND WITH THE CHANCE OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...IT SEEMS AS
THOUGH THERE WILL BE LIMITED AFTERNOON HEATING AND AN INCREASING
CAP. LEFT THE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
ON THURSDAY.



.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
TRACK EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY
EVENING...THEN SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD DURING THE
NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA
THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL SEE A DECENT MOISTURE SURGE ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM. STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE EAST...WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 5000 J/KG
FRIDAY...AND BETWEEN 3500-4500 J/KG ON SATURDAY. BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE THE BEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. HOWEVER...CURRENT
H7 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE +12 TO +16 DEGREE RANGE
ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE TOO MUCH OF A CAP TO OVERCOME.
THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY...WHICH MAY MAKE THAT A
BETTER DAY TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN CWA. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DUE TO TIMING AND LOCATION
UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE KPIR
TAF AT THIS TIME.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KFSD 181141
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
641 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING DOWN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
DEPARTING OUR EASTERN ZONES SHORTLY. HOWEVER OUR MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY ZONES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN THE NEAR TERM AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL FIRE OFF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACCAS. THERE
MAY BE BETTER CHANCES OF THIS HAPPENING SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. BUT CERTAINLY LOW POPS ARE WARRANTED IN OUR MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY ZONES EARLY TODAY. OTHERWISE THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...GOING WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE READINGS AS
THE BIAS CORRECTED STILL LOOKS TOO COOL.

CONVECTION CHANCES TONIGHT ARE UNCERTAIN. A COUPLE OF THE HIRES
MODELS WERE BRINGING RAINFALL CHANCES LATE TONIGHT ALMOST THROUGH
OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHICH DID NOT SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF STABILITY EAST OF I 29. BUT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES WEST OF I 29 AND THETAE ADVECTION...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE AN ELEVATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GET GOING FROM
I 29 WESTWARD LATE TONIGHT. BUT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A VERY LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SET UP SHOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL SEND PERIODIC SHORT WAVES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS...PRIMARILY AT NIGHT IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW IS MAINTAINED OVER THE WESTERN U.S...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE A COMMON FEATURE AHEAD OF IT.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS UNSETTLED. RIDGING THROUGHOUT THE LOW
LEVELS CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD GIVING OUR FORECAST AREA AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF THETAE ADVECTION. NAM SHOWS
DEEP ASCENT AND VEERING PROFILES. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE WIND
SPEEDS LOOK STRONGER IN THE LOW LEVELS THAN IN THE MID LEVELS...
AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS VERY WEAK. BUT CAPPING DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE IN PLACE...SO MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION SHOULD BE AROUND
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. ALMOST WENT LIKELY POPS IN AN AREA BOUNDED
BY HURON...TO MITCHELL...SIOUX FALLS AND BROOKINGS. HOWEVER THERE
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS HIRES MODELS ON EXACT
PLACEMENT AND BEST TIMING. IN FACT THE WRF ARW IS NOTICEABLY
ABSENT OF ANY QPF AT ALL WHICH WAS AN OUTLIER WITH THE REST OF THE
HIRES MODELS AND ALSO THE GLOBAL MODELS. BUT DID OPT TO GO
CERTAINTY WORDING IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. THIS TIME AROUND...
WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...THE COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES SUCH AS
THE MET AND BIAS CORRECTED READINGS LOOKED BETTER THEN THE WARMER
GUIDANCES.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL WARRANTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET...30
TO 40 KNOTS...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WIND PROFILES ARE
VERY STRONGLY VEERING...AND WILL MENTION A POSSIBILITY OF LOW END
SEVERE IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. WITH THE SOUTH WIND FIRMLY IN
PLACE...LOWS WILL BE WARM WITH MANY GUIDANCE VALUES LOOKING TOO
COOL. THE MET...MAV AND ECMWF LOOKED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
TEMPERATURES.

THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THURSDAY MORNING...GIVING AREAS EAST OF I
29 THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL BEFORE NOON. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE A LOT GOING ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OTHER THAN REAL SPOTTY
RAIN CHANCES DUE TO PURE INSTABILITY. THE HIGHEST POPS BARELY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY ARE WARRANTED IN SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE 700MB
TEMPERATURES ARE THE COOLEST...AT ABOUT +12C. BUT WEST OF THERE IT
COULD BE REAL TOUGH TO GET ANYTHING GOING DESPITE WARM AND MUGGY
LOW LEVEL AIR. THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVE EASTWARD WHICH WILL GIVE OUR AREA ANOTHER
SHOT AT CONVECTION...POSSIBLY LOW END SEVERE HERE AND THERE.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IN
GENERAL THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LARGE SCALE. THEY CONTINUE TO PLACE THE VERY LARGE UPPER
LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN IT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE PATTERN DOES
LOOK UNSETTLED AND UNSTABLE. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CERTAINLY DEPEND ON THE DEGREE OF CAPPING...WHICH COULD BE PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT IN OUR AREA AT LEAST EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. THE ECMWF
HAS A STOUT +14C AT 700MB OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...THEREFORE LOWERED POPS. THEN THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WHICH
HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED BY THE VARIOUS MODELS MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF TAKES THE WAVE UP AND
OVER THE CAPPING...GIVING OUR AREA ONLY A GLANCING BLOW THROUGH
OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. THE GFS DIVES IT FURTHER
EASTWARD IMPACTING OUR AREA A LITTLE MORE...WHILE THE GEM GLOBAL
IS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. IF WE ARE CAPPED...THE RAINFALL WILL
HINGE OF COURSE ON LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...WHICH AT THIS TIME LOOK
TO BARELY NUDGE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE STALLING. SO FOR
NOW...KEEPING POPS BELOW THE LIKELY THRESHOLD IS WARRANTED... WITH
DECREASING POPS HEADING SOUTHWARD.

THE ECMWF THEN BRINGS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND BELIEVE THIS IS THE MAIN ONE TO WATCH. AS
THE PARENT UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN HIGH PLAINS...
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL IN OUR FORECAST AREA TO +10C TO +12C
AT 700MB...MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION. NOW IF THIS WAVE
QUICKLY EJECTS AS ADVERTISED BY MANY OF THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DWINDLE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. SO A GRADUAL LOWERING OF POPS FOR THOSE TWO DAYS MAY BE IN
ORDER WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

THEN BEYOND THE EXTENDED...THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE WHICH COULD VERY WELL GIVE US QUIETER WEATHER FOR A WHILE...
QUICKLY LOOKING MORE LIKE A SUMMERTIME PATTERN. THE TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MORE SUMMERLIKE FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD 80S TO AROUND 90 COMMON FOR HIGHS...WARM
MUGGY LOWS...AND DEW POINT VALUES WELL INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 19/12Z. SCATTERED TSRA
MAY AFFECT THE AREA AFTER THAT TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJF
LONG TERM...MJF
AVIATION...

000
FXUS63 KABR 181125 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
625 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RETURN FLOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AS WELL AS MLCAPE
VALUES RISING INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. NO SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC FORCING TO SPEAK OF...BUT IF ANYTHING GETS GOING IN THE
BLACK HILL REGION...IT MAY PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA. MODELS
ARE SHOWING AROUND 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...SO IF STORMS CAN MAKE
IT THIS FAR EAST...THERE CERTAINLY IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA.

THE LLJ INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
ABOUT 30 KTS NOSING INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA. THIS MAY INDUCE
ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING WILL BE A LITTLE TOO
EARLY AND HEATING WILL BE LIMITED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES EASTWARD...AND A 30 TO 40
KT LLJ JET AGAIN SETS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO RISE HOWEVER...AND WITH THE CHANCE OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...IT SEEMS AS
THOUGH THERE WILL BE LIMITED AFTERNOON HEATING AND AN INCREASING
CAP. LEFT THE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
ON THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
TRACK EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY
EVENING...THEN SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD DURING THE
NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA
THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL SEE A DECENT MOISTURE SURGE ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM. STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE EAST...WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 5000 J/KG
FRIDAY...AND BETWEEN 3500-4500 J/KG ON SATURDAY. BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE THE BEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. HOWEVER...CURRENT
H7 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE +12 TO +16 DEGREE RANGE
ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE TOO MUCH OF A CAP TO OVERCOME.
THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY...WHICH MAY MAKE THAT A
BETTER DAY TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN CWA. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DUE TO TIMING AND LOCATION
UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE KPIR
TAF AT THIS TIME.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KUNR 180921
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
321 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
ND...WITH NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...WITH UPPER LOW STILL ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEB.
RELATIVELY QUIET WX ACROSS OUR AREA FOR A CHANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING. SKIES ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S AND LIGHT WINDS.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE WEAK RIDGE TO
THE WEST AND BRINGS A GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE DAY WILL START OFF
RATHER PLEASANT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AS THE RIDGE SLIDES A
BIT FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 70S ACROSS THE
BLACK HILLS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...BECOMING BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN SD.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP TOWARD MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY BY THAT TIME
AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES. STRONG INSTABILITY IS PROGGED FOR
THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRING IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. CAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG ARE ANTICIPATED
OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
GENERALLY OVER WESTERN SD. SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT STRENGTHEN AS THE DAY GOES ON. SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE TIMING AND TRACKING THE WAVE PRETTY WELL...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS FROM AFTER 21Z TO AROUND 06Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM THE BLACK HILLS
AREA...SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA...WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...
ESPECIALLY EARLY ON...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO BECOMING A BIGGER
THREAT INTO THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED BY DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL JET OVER THE SD PLAINS IN THE EVENING. STORMS SHOULD BECOME
ELEVATED LATE IN THE EVENING AND THEREFORE DECREASE THE SEVERE
THREAT OVERNIGHT TOWARD CENTRAL SD. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
IN PLACE AND FAIRLY STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...WILL KEEP LINGERING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FROM
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST AREAS AS
THERMAL RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S OVER
THE BLACK HILLS. THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A PRETTY
STRONG CAP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...THE THREAT FOR
STORMS LOOKS PRETTY LOW...AT LEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...UNLESS
ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CAN HELP TO LOOSEN THE CAP. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCES OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA EASTWARD TO CENTRAL SD. BRISK
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA...KEEPING
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...SEVERE STORMS WOULD
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WEAK COOL FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SIGNIFICANT CAP MAY IMPEDE
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...BUT HAVE LEFT POPS IN GIVEN RATHER
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/MOVEMENT OF FRONT AS WELL AS STABILITY
PARAMETERS. TEMPERATURES QUITE UNCERTAIN.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST/UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH A PARADE OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CWA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LEE
TROUGH/LEFTOVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS FOR TSRA ACTIVITY.
FLOW THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SMALLER CHANCES FOR TSRA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MAY THEN BECOME QUITE ENTRENCHED THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HOT
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE
THROUGH 15Z ON THE SD PLAINS WHERE SOME LIFR FG MAY OCCUR IN LOW-
LYING AREAS GIVEN LOW T/TD SPREADS. TSRA WILL ERUPT THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS
WITH THE STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON

000
FXUS63 KFSD 180904
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
404 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING DOWN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
DEPARTING OUR EASTERN ZONES SHORTLY. HOWEVER OUR MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY ZONES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN THE NEAR TERM AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL FIRE OFF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACCAS. THERE
MAY BE BETTER CHANCES OF THIS HAPPENING SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. BUT CERTAINLY LOW POPS ARE WARRANTED IN OUR MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY ZONES EARLY TODAY. OTHERWISE THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...GOING WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE READINGS AS
THE BIAS CORRECTED STILL LOOKS TOO COOL.

CONVECTION CHANCES TONIGHT ARE UNCERTAIN. A COUPLE OF THE HIRES
MODELS WERE BRINGING RAINFALL CHANCES LATE TONIGHT ALMOST THROUGH
OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHICH DID NOT SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF STABILITY EAST OF I 29. BUT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES WEST OF I 29 AND THETAE ADVECTION...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE AN ELEVATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GET GOING FROM
I 29 WESTWARD LATE TONIGHT. BUT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A VERY LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SET UP SHOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL SEND PERIODIC SHORT WAVES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS...PRIMARILY AT NIGHT IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW IS MAINTAINED OVER THE WESTERN U.S...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE A COMMON FEATURE AHEAD OF IT.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS UNSETTLED. RIDGING THROUGHOUT THE LOW
LEVELS CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD GIVING OUR FORECAST AREA AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF THETAE ADVECTION. NAM SHOWS
DEEP ASCENT AND VEERING PROFILES. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE WIND
SPEEDS LOOK STRONGER IN THE LOW LEVELS THAN IN THE MID LEVELS...
AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS VERY WEAK. BUT CAPPING DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE IN PLACE...SO MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION SHOULD BE AROUND
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. ALMOST WENT LIKELY POPS IN AN AREA BOUNDED
BY HURON...TO MITCHELL...SIOUX FALLS AND BROOKINGS. HOWEVER THERE
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS HIRES MODELS ON EXACT
PLACEMENT AND BEST TIMING. IN FACT THE WRF ARW IS NOTICEABLY
ABSENT OF ANY QPF AT ALL WHICH WAS AN OUTLIER WITH THE REST OF THE
HIRES MODELS AND ALSO THE GLOBAL MODELS. BUT DID OPT TO GO
CERTAINTY WORDING IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. THIS TIME AROUND...
WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...THE COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES SUCH AS
THE MET AND BIAS CORRECTED READINGS LOOKED BETTER THEN THE WARMER
GUIDANCES.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL WARRANTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET...30
TO 40 KNOTS...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WIND PROFILES ARE
VERY STRONGLY VEERING...AND WILL MENTION A POSSIBILITY OF LOW END
SEVERE IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. WITH THE SOUTH WIND FIRMLY IN
PLACE...LOWS WILL BE WARM WITH MANY GUIDANCE VALUES LOOKING TOO
COOL. THE MET...MAV AND ECMWF LOOKED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
TEMPERATURES.

THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THURSDAY MORNING...GIVING AREAS EAST OF I
29 THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL BEFORE NOON. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE A LOT GOING ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OTHER THAN REAL SPOTTY
RAIN CHANCES DUE TO PURE INSTABILITY. THE HIGHEST POPS BARELY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY ARE WARRANTED IN SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE 700MB
TEMPERATURES ARE THE COOLEST...AT ABOUT +12C. BUT WEST OF THERE IT
COULD BE REAL TOUGH TO GET ANYTHING GOING DESPITE WARM AND MUGGY
LOW LEVEL AIR. THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVE EASTWARD WHICH WILL GIVE OUR AREA ANOTHER
SHOT AT CONVECTION...POSSIBLY LOW END SEVERE HERE AND THERE.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IN
GENERAL THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LARGE SCALE. THEY CONTINUE TO PLACE THE VERY LARGE UPPER
LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN IT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE PATTERN DOES
LOOK UNSETTLED AND UNSTABLE. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CERTAINLY DEPEND ON THE DEGREE OF CAPPING...WHICH COULD BE PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT IN OUR AREA AT LEAST EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. THE ECMWF
HAS A STOUT +14C AT 700MB OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...THEREFORE LOWERED POPS. THEN THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WHICH
HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED BY THE VARIOUS MODELS MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF TAKES THE WAVE UP AND
OVER THE CAPPING...GIVING OUR AREA ONLY A GLANCING BLOW THROUGH
OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. THE GFS DIVES IT FURTHER
EASTWARD IMPACTING OUR AREA A LITTLE MORE...WHILE THE GEM GLOBAL
IS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. IF WE ARE CAPPED...THE RAINFALL WILL
HINGE OF COURSE ON LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...WHICH AT THIS TIME LOOK
TO BARELY NUDGE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE STALLING. SO FOR
NOW...KEEPING POPS BELOW THE LIKELY THRESHOLD IS WARRANTED... WITH
DECREASING POPS HEADING SOUTHWARD.

THE ECMWF THEN BRINGS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND BELIEVE THIS IS THE MAIN ONE TO WATCH. AS
THE PARENT UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN HIGH PLAINS...
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL IN OUR FORECAST AREA TO +10C TO +12C
AT 700MB...MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION. NOW IF THIS WAVE
QUICKLY EJECTS AS ADVERTISED BY MANY OF THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DWINDLE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. SO A GRADUAL LOWERING OF POPS FOR THOSE TWO DAYS MAY BE IN
ORDER WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

THEN BEYOND THE EXTENDED...THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE WHICH COULD VERY WELL GIVE US QUIETER WEATHER FOR A WHILE...
QUICKLY LOOKING MORE LIKE A SUMMERTIME PATTERN. THE TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MORE SUMMERLIKE FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD 80S TO AROUND 90 COMMON FOR HIGHS...WARM
MUGGY LOWS...AND DEW POINT VALUES WELL INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 10Z-12Z. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE
OF THE STORMS...UNLIKELY THAT THEY WILL AFFECT TAF LOCATIONS AND HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN 06Z TAFS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJF
LONG TERM...MJF
AVIATION...JH

000
FXUS63 KABR 180853
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
353 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RETURN FLOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AS WELL AS MLCAPE
VALUES TO RISING INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. NO SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC FORCING TO SPEAK OF...BUT IF ANYTHING GETS GOING IN THE
BLACK HILL REGION...IT MAY PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA.
MODELS ARE SHOWING AROUND 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...SO IF STORMS
CAN MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST...THERE CERTAINLY IS THE POSSIBLY OF
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA.

THE LLJ INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
ABOUT 30 KTS NOSING INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA. THIS MAY INDUCE
ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING WILL BE A LITTLE TOO
EARLY AND HEATING WILL BE LIMITED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES EASTWARD...AND A 30 TO 40
KT LLJ JET AGAIN SETS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO RISE HOWEVER...AND WITH THE CHANCE OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...IT SEEMS AS
THOUGH THERE WILL BE LIMITED AFTERNOON HEATING AND AN INCREASING
CAP. LEFT THE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
TRACK EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY
EVENING...THEN SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD DURING THE
NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA
THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL SEE A DECENT MOISTURE SURGE ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM. STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE EAST...WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 5000 J/KG
FRIDAY...AND BETWEEN 3500-4500 J/KG ON SATURDAY. BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE THE BEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. HOWEVER...CURRENT
H7 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE +12 TO +16 DEGREE RANGE
ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE TOO MUCH OF A CAP TO OVERCOME.
THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY...WHICH MAY MAKE THAT A
BETTER DAY TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN CWA. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TNT IT SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KABR 180534 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1234 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A WELL MIXED...WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE RESIDES OVERHEAD
TODAY...WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE. A FEW STORMS MAY POP OVER
FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA...CLOSEST TO THE
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE. STABLE/COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR STABLE CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY WITH AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. RETURN
FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...WITH A FETCH LINKING THE
REGION TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS BRINGS
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MUCH
DEPENDS ON TIMING. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH IS ALSO GOING TO PUSH IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS AS MODEL MIXED
LAYER DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO THE LOW 60S...HOWEVER IF TIMING IS OFF
WE MAY CAP BEFORE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS. IF ALL GOES
TO PLAN...WILL BE LOOKING AT ABOUT 2000 J/KG CAPE UNDER A FAIRLY
WEAK SHEAR PROFILE.

A SECOND BOUT OF STORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AM AS A 30 TO
40 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORMS OVER THE DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA...AND WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS LEADS TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD
OPENS WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE SFC A TROF WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE TROF IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH H7 TEMPS ONLY AROUND 12 TO
13 DEGREES...A VERY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BY FRIDAY
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH HELPING TO CAP OFF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE TEMPS
ALOFT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL.

THE WEEKEND IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST WORLD TO PIN
POINT ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR CONVECTION THOUGH POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STUCK CLOSE TO ALLBLEND AGAIN WITH
MAINLY CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP ON FRIDAY WITH ANTICIPATED
WAA. CURRENTLY HAVE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FORECAST. REACHING THE
LOWER 90S WILL NOT BE OUTSIDE THE REALM OF PROBABILITY.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S DURING THE
PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TNT IT SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH
TUESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KUNR 180523
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1123 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN UPPER LOW MOVING
TOWARD CNTRL ND WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS SWRN/SCNTRL SD. AT
THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERSPREADING THE CWA. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAVE RESULTED IN DEWPOINTS FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH 7-8 C/KM LAPSE
RATES WAS PRODUCING MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA
HAVE FORMED IN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE NWRN BLKHLS
SEWD INTO NRN NEB. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND MODEST CAPE THE
STORMS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY WEAK TO THIS POINT.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTN AND EVNG THE WAVE OVER SWRN SD WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE CONVERGENCE ZONE...EXTENDING WWD INTO NERN WY. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIP SHOULD END QUICKLY THIS EVNG GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LOSS
OF HEATING. SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR A SUPERCELL...BUT MARGINAL AND
THIN CAPE PROFILES SUGGEST THE UPDRAFTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
CHECK. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR ALL
OF THE CWA TNGT AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.

ON TUESDAY THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP PUSH DEWPOINTS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 50S...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST MLCAPE TO 1500-2000 J/KG. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA AND THUS DIMINISH THE SHEAR TO
VALUES BARELY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT...WHICH THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ABOUT. HOWEVER...THE Q-G FORCING
WILL BE RATHER WEAK...WITH THE BEST SIGNAL IN THE LOW-LEVELS DUE TO
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AT LEAST A
SMALL MCS TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND TRACK ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING
AND MARGINAL SHEAR THIS SHOULD NOT BE A "BIG" EVENT. THE STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STREAM
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WRN CONUS TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH THE PAC NW. CAPE WILL BE QUITE
LARGE...BUT WILL LIKELY BE FIGHTING A CAP AS WELL AS DRY SLOTTING AS
SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. WILL LEAVE POPS IN FORECAST...HIGHEST IN
THE ERN ZONES...WHILE DRYING THINGS OUT IN THE WRN ZONES. EVEN
THOUGH GUIDANCE IS GOING QUITE WARM...WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT
GIVEN GREENNESS. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO
SCNTRL CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
PERIODIC TSTM CHANCES AS WELL AS TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC

000
FXUS63 KFSD 180400
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1100 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE 20 POPS ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR.
CONVECTION UNDER UPPER SHORT WAVE IS MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS REACHING THE EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA ZONES TONIGHT. ANY STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE NON
SEVERE WITH MUCAPES OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ACCOMPANYING THE
SHORT WAVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

ISOLD TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG 1000 J/KG
MLCAPE AXIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WITH SHORT
WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA PUSHING SOUTHEAST...THESE STORM COULD
PERSIST AND WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE INSTABILITY AXIS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE MO RIVER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

A VERY QUIET AND PLEASANT PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THEN
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING THEN BECOME VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FAIRLY COOL RADIATIONAL LOW
TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY DRY
ENVIRONMENT...DID NOT ADD MENTION OF POPS THIS TIME...BUT LIFTING
FROM NEAR 800MB INDICATES THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...LEFT FORECAST DRY BUT EVENING
CREW MAY NEED TO UPDATE. WILL LOWER LOWS A BIT AND AIM FOR LOWER
TO MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WILL GO FAIRLY WARM...LOWER TO MID 80S. WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE ON DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
OVERDOING THAT A BIT LATELY AND ALSO RAMPED UP TEMPERATURES IN THE
MORNING MORE QUICKLY AS THAT HAS ALSO BEEN THE TREND LATELY AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THAT SHOULD HOLD TRUE FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE CONTINUED 20 PERCENT CHANCE POPS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY CREATING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  RIGHT NOW...NAM IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
GFS TAKING THE WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIND SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY...TALL THIN CAPE PROFILES AND
LIGHT WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. PWAT VALUES ARE NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
HIGH RANGING FROM 1.3-1.4 INCHES...BUT ARE STILL UP TOWARDS THE 75TH
TO 80TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUES TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS
STRONG UNIMPEDED SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING IN THE GULF CONTINUES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL LOW FROM THE WEST. HAVE TRIED TO CONCENTRATE POPS CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH UPPER WAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH THERE IS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO DRIVE THE FRONT SOUTH BEYOND
CONVECTION.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY
CAPPED AND SHOULD BE WARM AND STICKY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND
DEW POINTS NEAR 70. WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES FROM 500-700 MB AND
MODEST WIND SHEAR IN THE MID LEVELS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INCREASES WITH THREATS BEING MAINLY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 10Z-12Z. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE
OF THE STORMS...UNLIKELY THAT THEY WILL AFFECT TAF LOCATIONS AND HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN 06Z TAFS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH

000
FXUS63 KFSD 180347
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1047 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE 20 POPS ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR.
CONVECTION UNDER UPPER SHORT WAVE IS MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS REACHING THE EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA ZONES TONIGHT. ANY STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE NON
SEVERE WITH MUCAPES OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ACCOMPANYING THE
SHORT WAVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

ISOLD TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG 1000 J/KG
MLCAPE AXIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WITH SHORT
WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA PUSHING SOUTHEAST...THESE STORM COULD
PERSIST AND WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE INSTABILITY AXIS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE MO RIVER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

A VERY QUIET AND PLEASANT PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THEN
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING THEN BECOME VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FAIRLY COOL RADIATIONAL LOW
TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY DRY
ENVIRONMENT...DID NOT ADD MENTION OF POPS THIS TIME...BUT LIFTING
FROM NEAR 800MB INDICATES THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...LEFT FORECAST DRY BUT EVENING
CREW MAY NEED TO UPDATE. WILL LOWER LOWS A BIT AND AIM FOR LOWER
TO MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WILL GO FAIRLY WARM...LOWER TO MID 80S. WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE ON DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
OVERDOING THAT A BIT LATELY AND ALSO RAMPED UP TEMPERATURES IN THE
MORNING MORE QUICKLY AS THAT HAS ALSO BEEN THE TREND LATELY AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THAT SHOULD HOLD TRUE FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE CONTINUED 20 PERCENT CHANCE POPS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY CREATING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  RIGHT NOW...NAM IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
GFS TAKING THE WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIND SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY...TALL THIN CAPE PROFILES AND
LIGHT WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. PWAT VALUES ARE NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
HIGH RANGING FROM 1.3-1.4 INCHES...BUT ARE STILL UP TOWARDS THE 75TH
TO 80TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUES TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS
STRONG UNIMPEDED SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING IN THE GULF CONTINUES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL LOW FROM THE WEST. HAVE TRIED TO CONCENTRATE POPS CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH UPPER WAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH THERE IS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO DRIVE THE FRONT SOUTH BEYOND
CONVECTION.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY
CAPPED AND SHOULD BE WARM AND STICKY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND
DEW POINTS NEAR 70. WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES FROM 500-700 MB AND
MODEST WIND SHEAR IN THE MID LEVELS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INCREASES WITH THREATS BEING MAINLY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ANY LINGERING GUSTY
WINDS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD DIMINISHING BY SUNSET AROUND 02Z.
ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT
AND COULD AFFECT KSUX 06Z-12Z...BUT CHANCE OF TSRA AT THE TERMINAL
SITE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH

000
FXUS63 KABR 180213 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
913 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST GIVEN ACTIVITY
SLIDING SOUTH OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE FORECAST
LOOKS OKAY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

A WELL MIXED...WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE RESIDES OVERHEAD
TODAY...WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE. A FEW STORMS MAY POP OVER
FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA...CLOSEST TO THE
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE. STABLE/COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR STABLE CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY WITH AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. RETURN
FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...WITH A FETCH LINKING THE
REGION TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS BRINGS
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MUCH
DEPENDS ON TIMING. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH IS ALSO GOING TO PUSH IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS AS MODEL MIXED
LAYER DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO THE LOW 60S...HOWEVER IF TIMING IS OFF
WE MAY CAP BEFORE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS. IF ALL GOES
TO PLAN...WILL BE LOOKING AT ABOUT 2000 J/KG CAPE UNDER A FAIRLY
WEAK SHEAR PROFILE.

A SECOND BOUT OF STORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AM AS A 30 TO
40 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORMS OVER THE DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA...AND WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS LEADS TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD
OPENS WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE SFC A TROF WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE TROF IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH H7 TEMPS ONLY AROUND 12 TO
13 DEGREES...A VERY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BY FRIDAY
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH HELPING TO CAP OFF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE
TEMPS ALOFT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL.

THE WEEKEND IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST WORLD TO PIN
POINT ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR CONVECTION THOUGH POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STUCK CLOSE TO ALLBLEND AGAIN WITH
MAINLY CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP ON FRIDAY WITH ANTICIPATED
WAA. CURRENTLY HAVE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FORECAST. REACHING THE
LOWER 90S WILL NOT BE OUTSIDE THE REALM OF PROBABILITY.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KUNR 180101
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
701 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN UPPER LOW MOVING
TOWARD CNTRL ND WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS SWRN/SCNTRL SD. AT
THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERSPREADING THE CWA. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAVE RESULTED IN DEWPOINTS FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH 7-8 C/KM LAPSE
RATES WAS PRODUCING MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA
HAVE FORMED IN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE NWRN BLKHLS
SEWD INTO NRN NEB. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND MODEST CAPE THE
STORMS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY WEAK TO THIS POINT.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTN AND EVNG THE WAVE OVER SWRN SD WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE CONVERGENCE ZONE...EXTENDING WWD INTO NERN WY. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIP SHOULD END QUICKLY THIS EVNG GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LOSS
OF HEATING. SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR A SUPERCELL...BUT MARGINAL AND
THIN CAPE PROFILES SUGGEST THE UPDRAFTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
CHECK. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR ALL
OF THE CWA TNGT AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.

ON TUESDAY THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP PUSH DEWPOINTS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 50S...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST MLCAPE TO 1500-2000 J/KG. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA AND THUS DIMINISH THE SHEAR TO
VALUES BARELY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT...WHICH THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ABOUT. HOWEVER...THE Q-G FORCING
WILL BE RATHER WEAK...WITH THE BEST SIGNAL IN THE LOW-LEVELS DUE TO
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AT LEAST A
SMALL MCS TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND TRACK ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING
AND MARGINAL SHEAR THIS SHOULD NOT BE A "BIG" EVENT. THE STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STREAM
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WRN CONUS TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH THE PAC NW. CAPE WILL BE QUITE
LARGE...BUT WILL LIKELY BE FIGHTING A CAP AS WELL AS DRY SLOTTING AS
SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. WILL LEAVE POPS IN FORECAST...HIGHEST IN
THE ERN ZONES...WHILE DRYING THINGS OUT IN THE WRN ZONES. EVEN
THOUGH GUIDANCE IS GOING QUITE WARM...WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT
GIVEN GREENNESS. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO
SCNTRL CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
PERIODIC TSTM CHANCES AS WELL AS TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS WILL END THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN SD. STRONG
AND ERRATIC WINDS ALONG WITH HAIL POSSIBLE FROM THE TSTMS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...MLS

000
FXUS63 KFSD 172347
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
647 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

ISOLD TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG 1000 J/KG
MLCAPE AXIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WITH SHORT
WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA PUSHING SOUTHEAST...THESE STORM COULD
PERSIST AND WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE INSTABILITY AXIS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE MO RIVER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

A VERY QUIET AND PLEASANT PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THEN
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING THEN BECOME VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FAIRLY COOL RADIATIONAL LOW
TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY DRY
ENVIRONMENT...DID NOT ADD MENTION OF POPS THIS TIME...BUT LIFTING
FROM NEAR 800MB INDICATES THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...LEFT FORECAST DRY BUT EVENING
CREW MAY NEED TO UPDATE. WILL LOWER LOWS A BIT AND AIM FOR LOWER
TO MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WILL GO FAIRLY WARM...LOWER TO MID 80S. WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE ON DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
OVERDOING THAT A BIT LATELY AND ALSO RAMPED UP TEMPERATURES IN THE
MORNING MORE QUICKLY AS THAT HAS ALSO BEEN THE TREND LATELY AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THAT SHOULD HOLD TRUE FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE CONTINUED 20 PERCENT CHANCE POPS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY CREATING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  RIGHT NOW...NAM IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
GFS TAKING THE WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIND SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY...TALL THIN CAPE PROFILES AND
LIGHT WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. PWAT VALUES ARE NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
HIGH RANGING FROM 1.3-1.4 INCHES...BUT ARE STILL UP TOWARDS THE 75TH
TO 80TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUES TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS
STRONG UNIMPEDED SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING IN THE GULF CONTINUES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL LOW FROM THE WEST. HAVE TRIED TO CONCENTRATE POPS CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH UPPER WAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH THERE IS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO DRIVE THE FRONT SOUTH BEYOND
CONVECTION.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY
CAPPED AND SHOULD BE WARM AND STICKY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND
DEW POINTS NEAR 70. WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES FROM 500-700 MB AND
MODEST WIND SHEAR IN THE MID LEVELS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INCREASES WITH THREATS BEING MAINLY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ANY LINGERING GUSTY
WINDS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD DIMINISHING BY SUNSET AROUND 02Z.
ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT
AND COULD AFFECT KSUX 06Z-12Z...BUT CHANCE OF TSRA AT THE TERMINAL
SITE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH

000
FXUS63 KABR 172329 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
629 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

A WELL MIXED...WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE RESIDES OVERHEAD
TODAY...WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE. A FEW STORMS MAY POP OVER
FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA...CLOSEST TO THE
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE. STABLE/COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR STABLE CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY WITH AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. RETURN
FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...WITH A FETCH LINKING THE
REGION TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS BRINGS
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MUCH
DEPENDS ON TIMING. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH IS ALSO GOING TO PUSH IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS AS MODEL MIXED
LAYER DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO THE LOW 60S...HOWEVER IF TIMING IS OFF
WE MAY CAP BEFORE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS. IF ALL GOES
TO PLAN...WILL BE LOOKING AT ABOUT 2000 J/KG CAPE UNDER A FAIRLY
WEAK SHEAR PROFILE.

A SECOND BOUT OF STORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AM AS A 30 TO
40 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORMS OVER THE DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA...AND WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS LEADS TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD
OPENS WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE SFC A TROF WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE TROF IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH H7 TEMPS ONLY AROUND 12 TO
13 DEGREES...A VERY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BY FRIDAY
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH HELPING TO CAP OFF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE
TEMPS ALOFT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL.

THE WEEKEND IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST WORLD TO PIN
POINT ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR CONVECTION THOUGH POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STUCK CLOSE TO ALLBLEND AGAIN WITH
MAINLY CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP ON FRIDAY WITH ANTICIPATED
WAA. CURRENTLY HAVE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FORECAST. REACHING THE
LOWER 90S WILL NOT BE OUTSIDE THE REALM OF PROBABILITY.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KFSD 172325
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
625 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

ISOLD TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG 1000 J/KG
MLCAPE AXIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WITH SHORT
WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA PUSHING SOUTHEAST...THESE STORM COULD
PERSIST AND WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE INSTABILITY AXIS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE MO RIVER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

A VERY QUIET AND PLEASANT PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THEN
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING THEN BECOME VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FAIRLY COOL RADIATIONAL LOW
TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY DRY
ENVIRONMENT...DID NOT ADD MENTION OF POPS THIS TIME...BUT LIFTING
FROM NEAR 800MB INDICATES THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...LEFT FORECAST DRY BUT EVENING
CREW MAY NEED TO UPDATE. WILL LOWER LOWS A BIT AND AIM FOR LOWER
TO MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WILL GO FAIRLY WARM...LOWER TO MID 80S. WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE ON DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
OVERDOING THAT A BIT LATELY AND ALSO RAMPED UP TEMPERATURES IN THE
MORNING MORE QUICKLY AS THAT HAS ALSO BEEN THE TREND LATELY AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THAT SHOULD HOLD TRUE FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE CONTINUED 20 PERCENT CHANCE POPS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY CREATING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  RIGHT NOW...NAM IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
GFS TAKING THE WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIND SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY...TALL THIN CAPE PROFILES AND
LIGHT WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. PWAT VALUES ARE NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
HIGH RANGING FROM 1.3-1.4 INCHES...BUT ARE STILL UP TOWARDS THE 75TH
TO 80TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUES TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS
STRONG UNIMPEDED SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING IN THE GULF CONTINUES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL LOW FROM THE WEST. HAVE TRIED TO CONCENTRATE POPS CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH UPPER WAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH THERE IS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO DRIVE THE FRONT SOUTH BEYOND
CONVECTION.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY
CAPPED AND SHOULD BE WARM AND STICKY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND
DEW POINTS NEAR 70. WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES FROM 500-700 MB AND
MODEST WIND SHEAR IN THE MID LEVELS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INCREASES WITH THREATS BEING MAINLY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08

000
FXUS63 KFSD 172048
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
348 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

A VERY QUIET AND PLEASANT PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THEN
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING THEN BECOME VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FAIRLY COOL RADIATIONAL LOW
TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY DRY
ENVIRONMENT...DID NOT ADD MENTION OF POPS THIS TIME...BUT LIFTING
FROM NEAR 800MB INDICATES THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...LEFT FORECAST DRY BUT EVENING
CREW MAY NEED TO UPDATE. WILL LOWER LOWS A BIT AND AIM FOR LOWER
TO MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WILL GO FAIRLY WARM...LOWER TO MID 80S. WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE ON DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
OVERDOING THAT A BIT LATELY AND ALSO RAMPED UP TEMPERATURES IN THE
MORNING MORE QUICKLY AS THAT HAS ALSO BEEN THE TREND LATELY AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THAT SHOULD HOLD TRUE FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE CONTINUED 20 PERCENT CHANCE POPS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY CREATING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  RIGHT NOW...NAM IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
GFS TAKING THE WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIND SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY...TALL THIN CAPE PROFILES AND
LIGHT WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. PWAT VALUES ARE NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
HIGH RANGING FROM 1.3-1.4 INCHES...BUT ARE STILL UP TOWARDS THE 75TH
TO 80TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUES TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS
STRONG UNIMPEDED SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING IN THE GULF CONTINUES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL LOW FROM THE WEST. HAVE TRIED TO CONCENTRATE POPS CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH UPPER WAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH THERE IS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO DRIVE THE FRONT SOUTH BEYOND
CONVECTION.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY
CAPPED AND SHOULD BE WARM AND STICKY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND
DEW POINTS NEAR 70. WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES FROM 500-700 MB AND
MODEST WIND SHEAR IN THE MID LEVELS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INCREASES WITH THREATS BEING MAINLY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08

000
FXUS63 KUNR 172018
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
218 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN UPPER LOW MOVING
TOWARD CNTRL ND WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS SWRN/SCNTRL SD. AT
THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERSPREADING THE CWA. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAVE RESULTED IN DEWPOINTS FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH 7-8 C/KM LAPSE
RATES WAS PRODUCING MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA
HAVE FORMED IN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE NWRN BLKHLS
SEWD INTO NRN NEB. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND MODEST CAPE THE
STORMS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY WEAK TO THIS POINT.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTN AND EVNG THE WAVE OVER SWRN SD WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE CONVERGENCE ZONE...EXTENDING WWD INTO NERN WY. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIP SHOULD END QUICKLY THIS EVNG GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LOSS
OF HEATING. SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR A SUPERCELL...BUT MARGINAL AND
THIN CAPE PROFILES SUGGEST THE UPDRAFTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
CHECK. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR ALL
OF THE CWA TNGT AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.

ON TUESDAY THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP PUSH DEWPOINTS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 50S...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST MLCAPE TO 1500-2000 J/KG. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA AND THUS DIMINISH THE SHEAR TO
VALUES BARELY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT...WHICH THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ABOUT. HOWEVER...THE Q-G FORCING
WILL BE RATHER WEAK...WITH THE BEST SIGNAL IN THE LOW-LEVELS DUE TO
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AT LEAST A
SMALL MCS TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND TRACK ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING
AND MARGINAL SHEAR THIS SHOULD NOT BE A "BIG" EVENT. THE STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STREAM
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WRN CONUS TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH THE PAC NW. CAPE WILL BE QUITE
LARGE...BUT WILL LIKELY BE FIGHTING A CAP AS WELL AS DRY SLOTTING AS
SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. WILL LEAVE POPS IN FORECAST...HIGHEST IN
THE ERN ZONES...WHILE DRYING THINGS OUT IN THE WRN ZONES. EVEN
THOUGH GUIDANCE IS GOING QUITE WARM...WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT
GIVEN GREENNESS. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO
SCNTRL CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
PERIODIC TSTM CHANCES AS WELL AS TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SCT TSTMS EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY FROM THE BLKHLS INTO
SWRN SD. STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS ALONG WITH HAIL POSSIBLE FROM THE
TSTMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON

000
FXUS63 KABR 172017
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
317 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY AM

A WELL MIXED...WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE RESIDES OVERHEAD
TODAY...WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE. A FEW STORMS MAY POP OVER
FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA...CLOSEST TO THE
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE. STABLE/COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR STABLE CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY WITH AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. RETURN
FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...WITH A FETCH LINKING THE
REGION TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS BRINGS
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MUCH
DEPENDS ON TIMING. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH IS ALSO GOING TO PUSH IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS AS MODEL MIXED
LAYER DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO THE LOW 60S...HOWEVER IF TIMING IS OFF
WE MAY CAP BEFORE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS. IF ALL GOES
TO PLAN...WILL BE LOOKING AT ABOUT 2000 J/KG CAPE UNDER A FAIRLY
WEAK SHEAR PROFILE.

A SECOND BOUT OF STORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AM AS A 30 TO
40 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORMS OVER THE DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA...AND WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS LEADS TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD
OPENS WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE SFC A TROF WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE TROF IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH H7 TEMPS ONLY AROUND 12 TO
13 DEGREES...A VERY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BY FRIDAY
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH HELPING TO CAP OFF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE
TEMPS ALOFT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL.

THE WEEKEND IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST WORLD TO PIN
POINT ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR CONVECTION THOUGH POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STUCK CLOSE TO ALLBLEND AGAIN WITH
MAINLY CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP ON FRIDAY WITH ANTICIPATED
WAA. CURRENTLY HAVE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FORECAST. REACHING THE
LOWER 90S WILL NOT BE OUTSIDE THE REALM OF PROBABILITY.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S DURING THE
PERIOD.




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT AT THIS TIME DO
NOT LOOK TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. ADDED SOME MVFR FOG TO
KABR/KATY BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z TUESDAY BASED ON MOISTURE PROFILES
AND EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KFSD 171756
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1256 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
SD AND WEST CENTRAL WY AT THIS TIME. THIS CONVECTION IS AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. A STRIPE OF MODERATELY HIGH ML CAPES OF ABOUT
1000 TO 2000 J/KG EXTEND FROM THAT AREA...SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NEB/SD BORDER AND INTO NEB FOR TODAY. MEAN FLOW AND CORFIDI
VECTORS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTION WILL DRIFT TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THEREFORE INCLUDED SOME
SMALL POPS FOR GREGORY COUNTY AS THE ANTICIPATED TRAJECTORY OF THE
RAIN COULD SCRAPE OUR FAR SOUTHWEST. BY AFTERNOON...RAINFALL
CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHWARD.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES
DOWN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT THIS WAVE WILL
HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA AS HUMIDITY TIME SECTIONS
AND VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME...NOTING THAT THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...AFTER SEEING THIS PAST
WEEKENDS HIGHS...AND ALSO QUITE A BIT OF DENSE CLOUD COVER ON
SUNDAY AT LEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA...MANY MODEL
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE VALUES ARE RUNNING TOO COOL. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED VALUES AS OF LATE. WITH
PROJECTED 850MB TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER NW FLOW TODAY...SEE NO
REASON NOT TO GO CLOSEST WITH THE WARM GUIDANCE READINGS OF THE
MOS...MAV AND MET. CONVERSELY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...SOME OF
THE COOLER VALUES LOOKED GOOD AND WE MAY NOT BE QUITE COOL ENOUGH
IN MANY OF THE LOWER LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE EAST OF OUR
AREA BY TUESDAY...TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT SUMMER DAY WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. A
SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION FOR AREAS WEST OF I 29. THE SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW WILL THEN ENCOMPASS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...GIVING WARMER LOWS WHEN COMPARED WITH TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DEVELOP OFF OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE
TUESDAY...AND EDGE EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL SD BY 12Z WED. AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ELEVATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRE UP
TUESDAY EVENING...THEN MOVE INTO OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BE AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
SUGGESTING ELEVATED ACTIVITY. BUT SINCE IT IS ELEVATED...RIGHT NOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN AT ANY SINGLE GIVEN LOCATION ARE NOT REAL HIGH.
THEREFORE ONLY SKITTISH POPS ARE CURRENTLY WARRANTED FOR NOW. BUT
THAT SAID...THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONVECTION DOTTING THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. MAY EVENTUALLY JUST HAVE TO GO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FORECAST
AREA WIDE IF THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS IN FUTURE
FORECASTS. CONCERNING WEDNESDAY HIGHS...ONCE AGAIN THE BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE VALUES LOOKED WAY TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW.

MORE WAVY ACTION APPEARS TO BE PREVALENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN OUR
AREA AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. WITH A
STOUT LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUING...LINGERING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WARRANTED. THE NAM12 SHOWS QUITE A STRONG
ELEVATED CIN GRADIENT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SUGGESTING THAT
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD ERUPT ON THE EDGE OF CAPPING. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE 850MB TO 750MB LAYER.

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DEALS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE TO JUST EAST OF OUR AREA AND THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF
A WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID WEATHER TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME THERE APPEARS
TO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS HIGH
PLAINS SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND FAIRLY DECENT
INSTABILITY PREVAILS. WILL NOT GET DIURNALLY SPECIFIC...THAT IS
EMPHASIZE NIGHTTIME ACTIVITY...WITH AS MUCH DEPENDENCE AS THERE
APPEARS TO BE ON UPPER DYNAMICS. THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRYING OVER THE
AREA APPEARS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER RIDGE. THE ECMWF APPEARS
TO BE A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS ON ALL THIS BUT FOR NOW...GUIDANCE
IDEA OF KEEPING THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS ACCEPTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 80S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ/WILLIAMS
AVIATION...08

000
FXUS63 KABR 171728 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

ATMOSPHERE IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE TODAY...THOUGH WITH LOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. HAVE EXPANDED LOW POPS TO COVER MORE OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE INSTABILITY TOPS 500 J/KG CAPE. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

A MOISTURE GRADIENT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO
EASTERN NEBRASKA ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SW CWA THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EXTREME NE PORTION OF THE CWA. WEAK
INSTABILITY ON THE CAA SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN STEEP LOW LEVEL RATES. HI-RES MODELS PLUS THE NAM12 HAVE SHOWN
WEAK COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY REACHING SISSETON BETWEEN 21-03Z THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SUNSET WELL AFTER 00Z...THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST 03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING.

THE HI-RES NMM/ARW...PLUS THE NAM12 AND THE NSSL WRF ALL SUGGEST
ACCAS SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AROUND 09Z TONIGHT. NOT REAL
SURE WHAT THE FOCUS MECHANISM WILL BE...SO WILL LEAVE TIME PERIOD
DRY FOR NOW.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION...ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA...MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY. THE SREF SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE TIMING OF
THIS SHORT WAVE IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME SO WILL HAVE SCHC TO CHC
POPS DURING THE DAY.



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD
STARTS...AND LOOKS TO REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
BEFORE GETTING PUSHED EAST AS A BROAD UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THEN TRACKS TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE
END OF THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE STATE...WITH NO CLEAR CUT TIME FRAME WHERE
THERE WILL NOT BE ENERGY AFFECTING THE CWA.

AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD...THEN BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES...THE REGION WILL
REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. THE BEST INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG WITH LIS IN THE -9 TO -13 RANGE
WILL DEVELOP...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPRAWLED SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN CWA. THE CAP LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL
HINDERING FACTOR HOWEVER AS THE CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING H7
TEMPS BETWEEN +11 AND +15. EVEN WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVING THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S...THIS CAP MAY BE A
BIT TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY WHEN THE
TIME PERIOD GETS CLOSER.

WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXCEED
90 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT AT THIS TIME DO
NOT LOOK TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. ADDED SOME MVFR FOG TO
KABR/KATY BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z TUESDAY BASED ON MOISTURE PROFILES
AND EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KUNR 171645
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1045 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MN...WITH
WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER MT INTO SOUTHERN AB/SK.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY AND
PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THIS
AREA AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD. SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH
TEMPS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. WINDS ARE LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

AN OCCASIONALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
WEEK...WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND WEAK
RIDGING SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. THE LOW WILL
PUSH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN EARLY IN THE WEEK LOOK TO
BE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SHIFTING EASTWARD BY MIDWEEK
AS THE RIDGE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE TODAY...WARMING TO ABOVE AVERAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE THERMAL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY...WITH THE MOST SUN
LIKELY NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER WY AND THE BLACK HILLS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN WY.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD AS BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER THESE AREAS. SHEAR LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK IN
MOST AREAS...SO THE STRENGTH OF STORMS COULD BE ERRATIC. THE THREAT
FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL BE THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME. LARGE
HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WILL GENERALLY LEAVE FORECAST DRY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL JET IN THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF
THE BLACK HILLS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER AS RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...70S IN THE BLACK
HILLS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE PASSES
THROUGH...WITH COVERAGE LIKELY MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA. CAP
MAY BE TOUGH TO BREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THE
DAY...SO THE BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE FROM NORTHEASTERN WY INTO
THE BLACK HILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NRN PLAINS MID WEEK AS UPPER LOW DIGS INTO
THE PAC NW. WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND PROVIDE
NEARLY DAILY CHANCE FOR TSTMS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING BETTER CHANCE FOR
TSTMS BACK TO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1043 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SCT TSTMS EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY FROM THE BLKHLS INTO SWRN SD.
STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS ALONG WITH HAIL POSSIBLE FROM THE TSTMS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON

000
FXUS63 KABR 171607 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1107 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ATMOSPHERE IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE TODAY...THOUGH WITH LOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. HAVE EXPANDED LOW POPS TO COVER MORE OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE INSTABILITY TOPS 500 J/KG CAPE. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

A MOISTURE GRADIENT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO
EASTERN NEBRASKA ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SW CWA THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EXTREME NE PORTION OF THE CWA. WEAK
INSTABILITY ON THE CAA SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN STEEP LOW LEVEL RATES. HI-RES MODELS PLUS THE NAM12 HAVE SHOWN
WEAK COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY REACHING SISSETON BETWEEN 21-03Z THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SUNSET WELL AFTER 00Z...THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST 03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING.

THE HI-RES NMM/ARW...PLUS THE NAM12 AND THE NSSL WRF ALL SUGGEST
ACCAS SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AROUND 09Z TONIGHT. NOT REAL
SURE WHAT THE FOCUS MECHANISM WILL BE...SO WILL LEAVE TIME PERIOD
DRY FOR NOW.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION...ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA...MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY. THE SREF SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE TIMING OF
THIS SHORT WAVE IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME SO WILL HAVE SCHC TO CHC
POPS DURING THE DAY.



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD
STARTS...AND LOOKS TO REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
BEFORE GETTING PUSHED EAST AS A BROAD UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THEN TRACKS TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE
END OF THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE STATE...WITH NO CLEAR CUT TIME FRAME WHERE
THERE WILL NOT BE ENERGY AFFECTING THE CWA.

AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD...THEN BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES...THE REGION WILL
REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. THE BEST INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG WITH LIS IN THE -9 TO -13 RANGE
WILL DEVELOP...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPRAWLED SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN CWA. THE CAP LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL
HINDERING FACTOR HOWEVER AS THE CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING H7
TEMPS BETWEEN +11 AND +15. EVEN WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVING THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S...THIS CAP MAY BE A
BIT TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY WHEN THE
TIME PERIOD GETS CLOSER.

WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXCEED
90 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.





&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LOW CIGS AROUND 1500 FEET WILL DROP OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AFFECTING KMBG AND KABR. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THEY WILL LAST...HAVE INCLUDED THEM IN THE
TWO AFOREMENTIONED TAFS FOR 5 OR 6 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT AT THIS TIME DO
NOT LOOK TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KABR 171141 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
641 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

A MOISTURE GRADIENT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO
EASTERN NEBRASKA ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SW CWA THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EXTREME NE PORTION OF THE CWA. WEAK
INSTABILITY ON THE CAA SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN STEEP LOW LEVEL RATES. HI-RES MODELS PLUS THE NAM12 HAVE SHOWN
WEAK COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY REACHING SISSETON BETWEEN 21-03Z THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SUNSET WELL AFTER 00Z...THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST 03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING.

THE HI-RES NMM/ARW...PLUS THE NAM12 AND THE NSSL WRF ALL SUGGEST
ACCAS SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AROUND 09Z TONIGHT. NOT REAL
SURE WHAT THE FOCUS MECHANISM WILL BE...SO WILL LEAVE TIME PERIOD
DRY FOR NOW.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION...ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA...MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY. THE SREF SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE TIMING OF
THIS SHORT WAVE IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME SO WILL HAVE SCHC TO CHC
POPS DURING THE DAY.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD
STARTS...AND LOOKS TO REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
BEFORE GETTING PUSHED EAST AS A BROAD UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THEN TRACKS TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE
END OF THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE STATE...WITH NO CLEAR CUT TIME FRAME WHERE
THERE WILL NOT BE ENERGY AFFECTING THE CWA.

AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD...THEN BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES...THE REGION WILL
REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. THE BEST INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG WITH LIS IN THE -9 TO -13 RANGE
WILL DEVELOP...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPRAWLED SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN CWA. THE CAP LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL
HINDERING FACTOR HOWEVER AS THE CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING H7
TEMPS BETWEEN +11 AND +15. EVEN WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVING THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S...THIS CAP MAY BE A
BIT TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY WHEN THE
TIME PERIOD GETS CLOSER.

WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXCEED
90 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LOW CIGS AROUND 1500 FEET WILL DROP OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AFFECTING KMBG AND KABR. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THEY WILL LAST...HAVE INCLUDED THEM IN THE
TWO AFOREMENTIONED TAFS FOR 5 OR 6 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT AT THIS TIME DO
NOT LOOK TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KFSD 171133
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
633 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
SD AND WEST CENTRAL WY AT THIS TIME. THIS CONVECTION IS AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. A STRIPE OF MODERATELY HIGH ML CAPES OF ABOUT
1000 TO 2000 J/KG EXTEND FROM THAT AREA...SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NEB/SD BORDER AND INTO NEB FOR TODAY. MEAN FLOW AND CORFIDI
VECTORS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTION WILL DRIFT TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THEREFORE INCLUDED SOME
SMALL POPS FOR GREGORY COUNTY AS THE ANTICIPATED TRAJECTORY OF THE
RAIN COULD SCRAPE OUR FAR SOUTHWEST. BY AFTERNOON...RAINFALL
CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHWARD.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES
DOWN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT THIS WAVE WILL
HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA AS HUMIDITY TIME SECTIONS
AND VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME...NOTING THAT THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...AFTER SEEING THIS PAST
WEEKENDS HIGHS...AND ALSO QUITE A BIT OF DENSE CLOUD COVER ON
SUNDAY AT LEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA...MANY MODEL
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE VALUES ARE RUNNING TOO COOL. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED VALUES AS OF LATE. WITH
PROJECTED 850MB TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER NW FLOW TODAY...SEE NO
REASON NOT TO GO CLOSEST WITH THE WARM GUIDANCE READINGS OF THE
MOS...MAV AND MET. CONVERSELY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...SOME OF
THE COOLER VALUES LOOKED GOOD AND WE MAY NOT BE QUITE COOL ENOUGH
IN MANY OF THE LOWER LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE EAST OF OUR
AREA BY TUESDAY...TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT SUMMER DAY WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. A
SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION FOR AREAS WEST OF I 29. THE SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW WILL THEN ENCOMPASS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...GIVING WARMER LOWS WHEN COMPARED WITH TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DEVELOP OFF OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE
TUESDAY...AND EDGE EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL SD BY 12Z WED. AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ELEVATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRE UP
TUESDAY EVENING...THEN MOVE INTO OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BE AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
SUGGESTING ELEVATED ACTIVITY. BUT SINCE IT IS ELEVATED...RIGHT NOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN AT ANY SINGLE GIVEN LOCATION ARE NOT REAL HIGH.
THEREFORE ONLY SKITTISH POPS ARE CURRENTLY WARRANTED FOR NOW. BUT
THAT SAID...THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONVECTION DOTTING THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. MAY EVENTUALLY JUST HAVE TO GO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FORECAST
AREA WIDE IF THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS IN FUTURE
FORECASTS. CONCERNING WEDNESDAY HIGHS...ONCE AGAIN THE BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE VALUES LOOKED WAY TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW.

MORE WAVY ACTION APPEARS TO BE PREVALENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN OUR
AREA AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. WITH A
STOUT LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUING...LINGERING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WARRANTED. THE NAM12 SHOWS QUITE A STRONG
ELEVATED CIN GRADIENT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SUGGESTING THAT
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD ERUPT ON THE EDGE OF CAPPING. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE 850MB TO 750MB LAYER.

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DEALS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE TO JUST EAST OF OUR AREA AND THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF
A WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID WEATHER TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME THERE APPEARS
TO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS HIGH
PLAINS SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND FAIRLY DECENT
INSTABILITY PREVAILS. WILL NOT GET DIURNALLY SPECIFIC...THAT IS
EMPHASIZE NIGHTTIME ACTIVITY...WITH AS MUCH DEPENDENCE AS THERE
APPEARS TO BE ON UPPER DYNAMICS. THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRYING OVER THE
AREA APPEARS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER RIDGE. THE ECMWF APPEARS
TO BE A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS ON ALL THIS BUT FOR NOW...GUIDANCE
IDEA OF KEEPING THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS ACCEPTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 80S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 18/12Z. NO SIGNS OF
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE THREAT SEEMS TOO SMALL TO
INCLUDE FOR LATE TONIGHT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ/WILLIAMS
AVIATION...