Home > Products > State Listing > South Dakota Data
Latest:
 AFDUNR |  AFDABR |  AFDFSD |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KABR 311738 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1138 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG HAS BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR WHERE WEB-CAMS SUGGEST 1/4
MILE OF VISIBILITY. FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR SQUEEZING OUT THE
LLM IS PRODUCING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON IS SLOWER ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS.
THUS HAVE TRIED TO REMOVE POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA UNTIL
CLOSER TO 0Z.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE CONVERGING ON THE REGION
TODAY...ONE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART THE NORTHERN SYSTEM
WILL BE THE MOST INFLUENTIAL ON OUR CWA TODAY...HOWEVER LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHERN CWA AS
EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE
WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL ONLY
SHOWING WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING...BUT THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER
BECOMES VERY DEEP AS THE COLUMN COOLS OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE QPF
VALUES ARE LOW...SNOW RATIOS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY HIGH. FOR
THE MOST PART STILL FORECASTING SNOW TOTALS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH
RANGE /SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA/...ALTHOUGH
TRIED TO BACK OFF ON AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE
MODELS SHOW SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION.

COLD DRY AIR QUICKLY TAKES OVER. COMBINED WITH A STIFF NORTHERLY
WIND...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE TWENTY BELOW
ZERO RANGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN COLDER LOW TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A
WEAK...FAST MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE IN
THE PERIOD WHEN THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH
THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FAIRLY
QUICKLY...SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE NO MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF INCHES. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN THE REGION
BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY QUITE A BIT DURING THE PERIOD. AFTER NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON TUESDAY...WILL SEE A COOLER DAY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. WILL THEN SEE WAA
RETURN WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S ON
THURSDAY...THEN IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...WITH
STEADILY IMPROVING VSBY IN LIGHT FOG. THE CIGS MAY LIFT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON BRIEFLY...WITH VSBYS BECOMING VFR. LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM 3Z TO 10Z
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ENDING FAIRLY
QUICKLY AT KABR/KATY. IN GENERAL...MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AS NORTH WINDS GUST TO 25
KTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KFSD 311723
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1123 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

PER LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE QPF
AMOUNTS...AND IN TURN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THROUGH AREAS GENERALLY
FROM THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD. RELATED TO
THAT...UPGRADED PORTIONS OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
WARNING FOR MOST OF NORTHWESTERN IOWA...NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IS
LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE TO REFINE
CURRENT HEADLINES A BIT MORE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE BASED ON
12Z MODEL RUNS. ALSO REMOVED RAIN FROM THE FORECAST IN OUR FAR
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON IN ANTICIPATION OF WET BULBING WHICH WOULD
QUICKLY RESULT IN ANY RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THIS SNOW SYSTEM HAS BECOME STRONGER WITH EACH RUN SINCE YESTERDAY
AND NOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHWEST IOWA.
DESPITE INITIALLY MILD LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES...STEADY COOLING IS
STARTING TO CALL IN QUESTION AN INITIAL MIXTURE OF RAIN WITH THE
SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY...WITH KEEP A MIXTURE OVER A SMALL AREA FAR
SOUTH INTO THIS. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL NOT GET TOO FAR TODAY
BEFORE COOLING...GIVEN HOW MILD THEY ARE EARLY THIS MORNING.

MODELS HAVE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION PATTERN AND
AMOUNTS. THINK HERE THE AMOUNTS ARE IN GENERAL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE.
HOWEVER...THE CERTAIN COOLING AND A LOT OF THE LIFT DESTINED TO BE
IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS.
AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY LESS THAN 8 INCHES IN NORTHWEST IOWA BUT NOT
VERY MUCH LESS. GIVEN THE MODERATE WINDS AND SOME DRIFTING BUT
LITTLE OR NO BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED...PLUS AN EVENT DURATION WELL
OVER 12 HOURS IN THAT AREA...WILL KEEP THE HIGHLIGHT TO JUST AN
ADVISORY FOR NOW. THE ADVISORY WILL EXTEND NORTH AND WEST TO PART OF
SOUTHWEST MN...THE FSD AREA...MITCHELL AND THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF THE AREA IN GREGORY COUNTY. AM STARTING THE ADVISORY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ 3 PM CST/ FAR SOUTH AND AT THE START OF THE EVENING/ 6 PM
CST / FURTHER NORTH. SNOW SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FAR WEST LATE
TONIGHT BUT WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT THERE...AND INTO
SUNDAY EAST.

THE COLD AIR COMING IN WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO THE TEENS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WINDS MAY GET TO THE
BREEZY CATEGORY BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW THE SNOW HIGHER THAN
DRIFTING LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY
IN OPEN AREAS. AM CONCERNED THAT THE BLOWING SNOW MAY BE OF GREATEST
CONCERN IN NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.
THIS MAY POINT MORE TOWARDS NEEDING A WINTER STORM WARNING INSTEAD
OF AN ADVISORY IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT THINK THAT STARTING WITH
AN ADVISORY AND SEEING IF WINDS LOOK STRONGER IN FUTURE RUNS IS A
GOOD START FOR NOW. DEFINITELY SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO LOOK
AT.

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES RUSH INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.
CLEARING SKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...FRESH SNOWPACK AND WINDS SHARPLY
DECREASING WILL BRING A MUCH COLDER NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS THE WIND CHILLS
STAY OUT OF ADVISORY TERRITORY.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH RETURN FLOW
BRIEFLY RETURNING. STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND WHILE
SUPPORT IS PRETTY WEAK...COULD SEE A FEW FLAKES DEVELOP IN THE OUR
FAR EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40
IN THE LOWER BRULE. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE DROPPING ALONG THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON...CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY BEGINS TO REBOUND TO OUR WEST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME ON THURSDAY...BUT
FRIDAY READINGS IMPROVE INTO THE 30S AND EVEN SOME 40S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW IFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WITH PATCHES OF VSBYS BELOW 1 SM DUE TO FOG. GENERALLY EXPECT MOST
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90 TO KEEP AT LEAST MVFR VSBY FOR FOG
PRIOR TO SNOW BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN
ADDITION CIGS WILL BE IFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LARGE AREA OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT THAT VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY FALL
FROM 3-5SM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TO 1 SM OR LESS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I90 BY 03Z. IN ADDITION...CIGS WILL BE BELOW 500
FEET AS SNOWFALL INCREASES. FROM 05Z TO 12Z...THERE MAY BE PERIODS
OF 1/2SM SNOWFALL AND POSSIBLY EVEN 1/4SM SNOWFALL AT KFSD AND
KSUX. SINCE DURATION AND TIMING OF THE 1/4SM SNOWFALL IS VERY
UNCERTAIN HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAF BUT DID INCLUDE 1/2SM SNOWFALL
LATE TONIGHT AT BOTH LOCAIONS. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY AFTER 12Z BUT CIGS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 1000 FT
THROUGH 18Z. NORTH OF I90...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
SOUTHWARD...SNOWFALL WILL NOT BE AS INTENSE AND THEREFORE...CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL BOTH BE A LITTLE BETTER...GENERALLY 1 TO 3SM WITH
CIGS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FT OVERNIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AROUND KHON WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO 6SM BY
15Z AND CIGS RISING ABOVE 1000 FT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ070-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ050-063-068-069.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ062-066-067.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ059>061-064-065.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ089-090-098.

IA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR IAZ020>022-031-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR IAZ001>003-012>014.

NE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER




000
FXUS63 KFSD 311659
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1059 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

PER LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE QPF
AMOUNTS...AND IN TURN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THROUGH AREAS GENERALLY
FROM THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD. RELATED TO
THAT...UPGRADED PORTIONS OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
WARNING FOR MOST OF NORTHWESTERN IOWA...NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IS
LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE TO REFINE
CURRENT HEADLINES A BIT MORE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE BASED ON
12Z MODEL RUNS. ALSO REMOVED RAIN FROM THE FORECAST IN OUR FAR
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON IN ANTICIPATION OF WET BULBING WHICH WOULD
QUICKLY RESULT IN ANY RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THIS SNOW SYSTEM HAS BECOME STRONGER WITH EACH RUN SINCE YESTERDAY
AND NOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHWEST IOWA.
DESPITE INITIALLY MILD LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES...STEADY COOLING IS
STARTING TO CALL IN QUESTION AN INITIAL MIXTURE OF RAIN WITH THE
SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY...WITH KEEP A MIXTURE OVER A SMALL AREA FAR
SOUTH INTO THIS. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL NOT GET TOO FAR TODAY
BEFORE COOLING...GIVEN HOW MILD THEY ARE EARLY THIS MORNING.

MODELS HAVE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION PATTERN AND
AMOUNTS. THINK HERE THE AMOUNTS ARE IN GENERAL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE.
HOWEVER...THE CERTAIN COOLING AND A LOT OF THE LIFT DESTINED TO BE
IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS.
AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY LESS THAN 8 INCHES IN NORTHWEST IOWA BUT NOT
VERY MUCH LESS. GIVEN THE MODERATE WINDS AND SOME DRIFTING BUT
LITTLE OR NO BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED...PLUS AN EVENT DURATION WELL
OVER 12 HOURS IN THAT AREA...WILL KEEP THE HIGHLIGHT TO JUST AN
ADVISORY FOR NOW. THE ADVISORY WILL EXTEND NORTH AND WEST TO PART OF
SOUTHWEST MN...THE FSD AREA...MITCHELL AND THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF THE AREA IN GREGORY COUNTY. AM STARTING THE ADVISORY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ 3 PM CST/ FAR SOUTH AND AT THE START OF THE EVENING/ 6 PM
CST / FURTHER NORTH. SNOW SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FAR WEST LATE
TONIGHT BUT WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT THERE...AND INTO
SUNDAY EAST.

THE COLD AIR COMING IN WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO THE TEENS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WINDS MAY GET TO THE
BREEZY CATEGORY BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW THE SNOW HIGHER THAN
DRIFTING LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY
IN OPEN AREAS. AM CONCERNED THAT THE BLOWING SNOW MAY BE OF GREATEST
CONCERN IN NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.
THIS MAY POINT MORE TOWARDS NEEDING A WINTER STORM WARNING INSTEAD
OF AN ADVISORY IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT THINK THAT STARTING WITH
AN ADVISORY AND SEEING IF WINDS LOOK STRONGER IN FUTURE RUNS IS A
GOOD START FOR NOW. DEFINITELY SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO LOOK
AT.

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES RUSH INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.
CLEARING SKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...FRESH SNOWPACK AND WINDS SHARPLY
DECREASING WILL BRING A MUCH COLDER NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS THE WIND CHILLS
STAY OUT OF ADVISORY TERRITORY.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH RETURN FLOW
BRIEFLY RETURNING. STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND WHILE
SUPPORT IS PRETTY WEAK...COULD SEE A FEW FLAKES DEVELOP IN THE OUR
FAR EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40
IN THE LOWER BRULE. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE DROPPING ALONG THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON...CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY BEGINS TO REBOUND TO OUR WEST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME ON THURSDAY...BUT
FRIDAY READINGS IMPROVE INTO THE 30S AND EVEN SOME 40S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET WITH AREAS OF VISIBILITY 3-5SM NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA AT 12Z WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER ALL OF THE AREA
31/12Z-18Z. 31/18Z-01/00Z CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO 1-2K
FEET BUT CEILINGS AOB 1K FEET AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN SNOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FROM THE S 31/21Z-01/03Z. IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 01/12Z EXCEPT
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA OR MAINLY
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER 01/06Z/12Z.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ070-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ050-063-068-069.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ062-066-067.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ059>061-064-065.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ089-090-098.

IA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR IAZ020>022-031-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR IAZ001>003-012>014.

NE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 311659
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1059 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

PER LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE QPF
AMOUNTS...AND IN TURN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THROUGH AREAS GENERALLY
FROM THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD. RELATED TO
THAT...UPGRADED PORTIONS OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
WARNING FOR MOST OF NORTHWESTERN IOWA...NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IS
LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE TO REFINE
CURRENT HEADLINES A BIT MORE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE BASED ON
12Z MODEL RUNS. ALSO REMOVED RAIN FROM THE FORECAST IN OUR FAR
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON IN ANTICIPATION OF WET BULBING WHICH WOULD
QUICKLY RESULT IN ANY RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THIS SNOW SYSTEM HAS BECOME STRONGER WITH EACH RUN SINCE YESTERDAY
AND NOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHWEST IOWA.
DESPITE INITIALLY MILD LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES...STEADY COOLING IS
STARTING TO CALL IN QUESTION AN INITIAL MIXTURE OF RAIN WITH THE
SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY...WITH KEEP A MIXTURE OVER A SMALL AREA FAR
SOUTH INTO THIS. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL NOT GET TOO FAR TODAY
BEFORE COOLING...GIVEN HOW MILD THEY ARE EARLY THIS MORNING.

MODELS HAVE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION PATTERN AND
AMOUNTS. THINK HERE THE AMOUNTS ARE IN GENERAL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE.
HOWEVER...THE CERTAIN COOLING AND A LOT OF THE LIFT DESTINED TO BE
IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS.
AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY LESS THAN 8 INCHES IN NORTHWEST IOWA BUT NOT
VERY MUCH LESS. GIVEN THE MODERATE WINDS AND SOME DRIFTING BUT
LITTLE OR NO BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED...PLUS AN EVENT DURATION WELL
OVER 12 HOURS IN THAT AREA...WILL KEEP THE HIGHLIGHT TO JUST AN
ADVISORY FOR NOW. THE ADVISORY WILL EXTEND NORTH AND WEST TO PART OF
SOUTHWEST MN...THE FSD AREA...MITCHELL AND THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF THE AREA IN GREGORY COUNTY. AM STARTING THE ADVISORY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ 3 PM CST/ FAR SOUTH AND AT THE START OF THE EVENING/ 6 PM
CST / FURTHER NORTH. SNOW SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FAR WEST LATE
TONIGHT BUT WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT THERE...AND INTO
SUNDAY EAST.

THE COLD AIR COMING IN WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO THE TEENS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WINDS MAY GET TO THE
BREEZY CATEGORY BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW THE SNOW HIGHER THAN
DRIFTING LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY
IN OPEN AREAS. AM CONCERNED THAT THE BLOWING SNOW MAY BE OF GREATEST
CONCERN IN NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.
THIS MAY POINT MORE TOWARDS NEEDING A WINTER STORM WARNING INSTEAD
OF AN ADVISORY IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT THINK THAT STARTING WITH
AN ADVISORY AND SEEING IF WINDS LOOK STRONGER IN FUTURE RUNS IS A
GOOD START FOR NOW. DEFINITELY SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO LOOK
AT.

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES RUSH INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.
CLEARING SKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...FRESH SNOWPACK AND WINDS SHARPLY
DECREASING WILL BRING A MUCH COLDER NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS THE WIND CHILLS
STAY OUT OF ADVISORY TERRITORY.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH RETURN FLOW
BRIEFLY RETURNING. STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND WHILE
SUPPORT IS PRETTY WEAK...COULD SEE A FEW FLAKES DEVELOP IN THE OUR
FAR EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40
IN THE LOWER BRULE. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE DROPPING ALONG THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON...CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY BEGINS TO REBOUND TO OUR WEST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME ON THURSDAY...BUT
FRIDAY READINGS IMPROVE INTO THE 30S AND EVEN SOME 40S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET WITH AREAS OF VISIBILITY 3-5SM NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA AT 12Z WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER ALL OF THE AREA
31/12Z-18Z. 31/18Z-01/00Z CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO 1-2K
FEET BUT CEILINGS AOB 1K FEET AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN SNOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FROM THE S 31/21Z-01/03Z. IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 01/12Z EXCEPT
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA OR MAINLY
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER 01/06Z/12Z.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ070-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ050-063-068-069.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ062-066-067.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ059>061-064-065.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ089-090-098.

IA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR IAZ020>022-031-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR IAZ001>003-012>014.

NE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 311659
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1059 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

PER LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE QPF
AMOUNTS...AND IN TURN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THROUGH AREAS GENERALLY
FROM THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD. RELATED TO
THAT...UPGRADED PORTIONS OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
WARNING FOR MOST OF NORTHWESTERN IOWA...NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IS
LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE TO REFINE
CURRENT HEADLINES A BIT MORE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE BASED ON
12Z MODEL RUNS. ALSO REMOVED RAIN FROM THE FORECAST IN OUR FAR
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON IN ANTICIPATION OF WET BULBING WHICH WOULD
QUICKLY RESULT IN ANY RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THIS SNOW SYSTEM HAS BECOME STRONGER WITH EACH RUN SINCE YESTERDAY
AND NOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHWEST IOWA.
DESPITE INITIALLY MILD LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES...STEADY COOLING IS
STARTING TO CALL IN QUESTION AN INITIAL MIXTURE OF RAIN WITH THE
SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY...WITH KEEP A MIXTURE OVER A SMALL AREA FAR
SOUTH INTO THIS. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL NOT GET TOO FAR TODAY
BEFORE COOLING...GIVEN HOW MILD THEY ARE EARLY THIS MORNING.

MODELS HAVE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION PATTERN AND
AMOUNTS. THINK HERE THE AMOUNTS ARE IN GENERAL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE.
HOWEVER...THE CERTAIN COOLING AND A LOT OF THE LIFT DESTINED TO BE
IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS.
AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY LESS THAN 8 INCHES IN NORTHWEST IOWA BUT NOT
VERY MUCH LESS. GIVEN THE MODERATE WINDS AND SOME DRIFTING BUT
LITTLE OR NO BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED...PLUS AN EVENT DURATION WELL
OVER 12 HOURS IN THAT AREA...WILL KEEP THE HIGHLIGHT TO JUST AN
ADVISORY FOR NOW. THE ADVISORY WILL EXTEND NORTH AND WEST TO PART OF
SOUTHWEST MN...THE FSD AREA...MITCHELL AND THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF THE AREA IN GREGORY COUNTY. AM STARTING THE ADVISORY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ 3 PM CST/ FAR SOUTH AND AT THE START OF THE EVENING/ 6 PM
CST / FURTHER NORTH. SNOW SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FAR WEST LATE
TONIGHT BUT WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT THERE...AND INTO
SUNDAY EAST.

THE COLD AIR COMING IN WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO THE TEENS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WINDS MAY GET TO THE
BREEZY CATEGORY BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW THE SNOW HIGHER THAN
DRIFTING LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY
IN OPEN AREAS. AM CONCERNED THAT THE BLOWING SNOW MAY BE OF GREATEST
CONCERN IN NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.
THIS MAY POINT MORE TOWARDS NEEDING A WINTER STORM WARNING INSTEAD
OF AN ADVISORY IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT THINK THAT STARTING WITH
AN ADVISORY AND SEEING IF WINDS LOOK STRONGER IN FUTURE RUNS IS A
GOOD START FOR NOW. DEFINITELY SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO LOOK
AT.

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES RUSH INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.
CLEARING SKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...FRESH SNOWPACK AND WINDS SHARPLY
DECREASING WILL BRING A MUCH COLDER NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS THE WIND CHILLS
STAY OUT OF ADVISORY TERRITORY.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH RETURN FLOW
BRIEFLY RETURNING. STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND WHILE
SUPPORT IS PRETTY WEAK...COULD SEE A FEW FLAKES DEVELOP IN THE OUR
FAR EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40
IN THE LOWER BRULE. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE DROPPING ALONG THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON...CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY BEGINS TO REBOUND TO OUR WEST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME ON THURSDAY...BUT
FRIDAY READINGS IMPROVE INTO THE 30S AND EVEN SOME 40S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET WITH AREAS OF VISIBILITY 3-5SM NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA AT 12Z WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER ALL OF THE AREA
31/12Z-18Z. 31/18Z-01/00Z CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO 1-2K
FEET BUT CEILINGS AOB 1K FEET AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN SNOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FROM THE S 31/21Z-01/03Z. IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 01/12Z EXCEPT
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA OR MAINLY
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER 01/06Z/12Z.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ070-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ050-063-068-069.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ062-066-067.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ059>061-064-065.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ089-090-098.

IA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR IAZ020>022-031-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR IAZ001>003-012>014.

NE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 311659
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1059 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

PER LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE QPF
AMOUNTS...AND IN TURN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THROUGH AREAS GENERALLY
FROM THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD. RELATED TO
THAT...UPGRADED PORTIONS OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
WARNING FOR MOST OF NORTHWESTERN IOWA...NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IS
LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE TO REFINE
CURRENT HEADLINES A BIT MORE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE BASED ON
12Z MODEL RUNS. ALSO REMOVED RAIN FROM THE FORECAST IN OUR FAR
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON IN ANTICIPATION OF WET BULBING WHICH WOULD
QUICKLY RESULT IN ANY RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THIS SNOW SYSTEM HAS BECOME STRONGER WITH EACH RUN SINCE YESTERDAY
AND NOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHWEST IOWA.
DESPITE INITIALLY MILD LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES...STEADY COOLING IS
STARTING TO CALL IN QUESTION AN INITIAL MIXTURE OF RAIN WITH THE
SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY...WITH KEEP A MIXTURE OVER A SMALL AREA FAR
SOUTH INTO THIS. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL NOT GET TOO FAR TODAY
BEFORE COOLING...GIVEN HOW MILD THEY ARE EARLY THIS MORNING.

MODELS HAVE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION PATTERN AND
AMOUNTS. THINK HERE THE AMOUNTS ARE IN GENERAL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE.
HOWEVER...THE CERTAIN COOLING AND A LOT OF THE LIFT DESTINED TO BE
IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS.
AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY LESS THAN 8 INCHES IN NORTHWEST IOWA BUT NOT
VERY MUCH LESS. GIVEN THE MODERATE WINDS AND SOME DRIFTING BUT
LITTLE OR NO BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED...PLUS AN EVENT DURATION WELL
OVER 12 HOURS IN THAT AREA...WILL KEEP THE HIGHLIGHT TO JUST AN
ADVISORY FOR NOW. THE ADVISORY WILL EXTEND NORTH AND WEST TO PART OF
SOUTHWEST MN...THE FSD AREA...MITCHELL AND THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF THE AREA IN GREGORY COUNTY. AM STARTING THE ADVISORY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ 3 PM CST/ FAR SOUTH AND AT THE START OF THE EVENING/ 6 PM
CST / FURTHER NORTH. SNOW SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FAR WEST LATE
TONIGHT BUT WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT THERE...AND INTO
SUNDAY EAST.

THE COLD AIR COMING IN WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO THE TEENS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WINDS MAY GET TO THE
BREEZY CATEGORY BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW THE SNOW HIGHER THAN
DRIFTING LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY
IN OPEN AREAS. AM CONCERNED THAT THE BLOWING SNOW MAY BE OF GREATEST
CONCERN IN NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.
THIS MAY POINT MORE TOWARDS NEEDING A WINTER STORM WARNING INSTEAD
OF AN ADVISORY IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT THINK THAT STARTING WITH
AN ADVISORY AND SEEING IF WINDS LOOK STRONGER IN FUTURE RUNS IS A
GOOD START FOR NOW. DEFINITELY SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO LOOK
AT.

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES RUSH INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.
CLEARING SKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...FRESH SNOWPACK AND WINDS SHARPLY
DECREASING WILL BRING A MUCH COLDER NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS THE WIND CHILLS
STAY OUT OF ADVISORY TERRITORY.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH RETURN FLOW
BRIEFLY RETURNING. STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND WHILE
SUPPORT IS PRETTY WEAK...COULD SEE A FEW FLAKES DEVELOP IN THE OUR
FAR EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40
IN THE LOWER BRULE. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE DROPPING ALONG THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON...CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY BEGINS TO REBOUND TO OUR WEST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME ON THURSDAY...BUT
FRIDAY READINGS IMPROVE INTO THE 30S AND EVEN SOME 40S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET WITH AREAS OF VISIBILITY 3-5SM NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA AT 12Z WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER ALL OF THE AREA
31/12Z-18Z. 31/18Z-01/00Z CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO 1-2K
FEET BUT CEILINGS AOB 1K FEET AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN SNOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FROM THE S 31/21Z-01/03Z. IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 01/12Z EXCEPT
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA OR MAINLY
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER 01/06Z/12Z.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ070-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ050-063-068-069.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ062-066-067.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ059>061-064-065.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ089-090-098.

IA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR IAZ020>022-031-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR IAZ001>003-012>014.

NE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KUNR 311658
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
958 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

POTENT WINTER STORM TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE MID CONUS THIS
MORNING. PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHS WILL
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE NW OF THE LOW. THIS
DEFORMATION ZONE IS PROGGED TO AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL AVAILABLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF DECENT SNOWS AS LIFT EXPANDS ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR 3-4 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF TRIPP COUNTY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY. HAVE ISSUED A WW ADV FOR
THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LOW STRATUS DECK SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AS CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. SURFACE COLD FRONT AND STRATUS DECK
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND ALONG WITH THE CLOUD COVER...AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR TODAY. FURTHER WEST IN
WYOMING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER...IN THE LOWER 40S.
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
STRONG JET STREAK WILL FORCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL SKIRT SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...SUPPORTING A SEPARATE AREA OF SNOW.
OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT...IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND ACROSS TRIPP
COUNTY.

SUNDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS QUICKLY EAST...WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE MORNING. WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY LATE
IN THE DAY. ARCTIC HIGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS...AND IN THE 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 5 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BECOMING MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. A RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW OR RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
BETTER DEFINED UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT THE SURFACE...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST AREA FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY AS A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLUCTUATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WIDE VARIATION
IN TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN BECOMING COLDER THAN AVERAGE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
AGAIN WITH MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 956 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

LOW STRATUS/FOG OVER MUCH OF WESTERN SD WILL CREATE IFR/MVFR
CIGS/VSBY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
IFR CONDITIONS. CIGS/VSBY WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING AS SNOW
TRANSITIONS EASTWARD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ049.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...POJORLIE






000
FXUS63 KUNR 311658
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
958 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

POTENT WINTER STORM TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE MID CONUS THIS
MORNING. PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHS WILL
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE NW OF THE LOW. THIS
DEFORMATION ZONE IS PROGGED TO AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL AVAILABLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF DECENT SNOWS AS LIFT EXPANDS ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR 3-4 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF TRIPP COUNTY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY. HAVE ISSUED A WW ADV FOR
THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LOW STRATUS DECK SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AS CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. SURFACE COLD FRONT AND STRATUS DECK
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND ALONG WITH THE CLOUD COVER...AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR TODAY. FURTHER WEST IN
WYOMING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER...IN THE LOWER 40S.
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
STRONG JET STREAK WILL FORCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL SKIRT SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...SUPPORTING A SEPARATE AREA OF SNOW.
OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT...IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND ACROSS TRIPP
COUNTY.

SUNDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS QUICKLY EAST...WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE MORNING. WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY LATE
IN THE DAY. ARCTIC HIGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS...AND IN THE 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 5 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BECOMING MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. A RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW OR RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
BETTER DEFINED UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT THE SURFACE...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST AREA FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY AS A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLUCTUATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WIDE VARIATION
IN TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN BECOMING COLDER THAN AVERAGE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
AGAIN WITH MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 956 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

LOW STRATUS/FOG OVER MUCH OF WESTERN SD WILL CREATE IFR/MVFR
CIGS/VSBY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
IFR CONDITIONS. CIGS/VSBY WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING AS SNOW
TRANSITIONS EASTWARD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ049.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...POJORLIE






000
FXUS63 KUNR 311658
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
958 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

POTENT WINTER STORM TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE MID CONUS THIS
MORNING. PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHS WILL
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE NW OF THE LOW. THIS
DEFORMATION ZONE IS PROGGED TO AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL AVAILABLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF DECENT SNOWS AS LIFT EXPANDS ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR 3-4 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF TRIPP COUNTY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY. HAVE ISSUED A WW ADV FOR
THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LOW STRATUS DECK SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AS CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. SURFACE COLD FRONT AND STRATUS DECK
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND ALONG WITH THE CLOUD COVER...AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR TODAY. FURTHER WEST IN
WYOMING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER...IN THE LOWER 40S.
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
STRONG JET STREAK WILL FORCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL SKIRT SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...SUPPORTING A SEPARATE AREA OF SNOW.
OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT...IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND ACROSS TRIPP
COUNTY.

SUNDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS QUICKLY EAST...WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE MORNING. WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY LATE
IN THE DAY. ARCTIC HIGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS...AND IN THE 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 5 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BECOMING MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. A RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW OR RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
BETTER DEFINED UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT THE SURFACE...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST AREA FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY AS A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLUCTUATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WIDE VARIATION
IN TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN BECOMING COLDER THAN AVERAGE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
AGAIN WITH MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 956 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

LOW STRATUS/FOG OVER MUCH OF WESTERN SD WILL CREATE IFR/MVFR
CIGS/VSBY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
IFR CONDITIONS. CIGS/VSBY WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING AS SNOW
TRANSITIONS EASTWARD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ049.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...POJORLIE






000
FXUS63 KUNR 311658
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
958 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

POTENT WINTER STORM TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE MID CONUS THIS
MORNING. PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHS WILL
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE NW OF THE LOW. THIS
DEFORMATION ZONE IS PROGGED TO AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL AVAILABLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF DECENT SNOWS AS LIFT EXPANDS ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR 3-4 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF TRIPP COUNTY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY. HAVE ISSUED A WW ADV FOR
THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LOW STRATUS DECK SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AS CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. SURFACE COLD FRONT AND STRATUS DECK
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND ALONG WITH THE CLOUD COVER...AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR TODAY. FURTHER WEST IN
WYOMING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER...IN THE LOWER 40S.
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
STRONG JET STREAK WILL FORCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL SKIRT SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...SUPPORTING A SEPARATE AREA OF SNOW.
OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT...IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND ACROSS TRIPP
COUNTY.

SUNDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS QUICKLY EAST...WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE MORNING. WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY LATE
IN THE DAY. ARCTIC HIGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS...AND IN THE 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 5 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BECOMING MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. A RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW OR RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
BETTER DEFINED UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT THE SURFACE...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST AREA FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY AS A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLUCTUATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WIDE VARIATION
IN TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN BECOMING COLDER THAN AVERAGE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
AGAIN WITH MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 956 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

LOW STRATUS/FOG OVER MUCH OF WESTERN SD WILL CREATE IFR/MVFR
CIGS/VSBY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
IFR CONDITIONS. CIGS/VSBY WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING AS SNOW
TRANSITIONS EASTWARD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ049.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...POJORLIE






000
FXUS63 KABR 311651 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1051 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG HAS BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR WHERE WEB-CAMS SUGGEST 1/4
MILE OF VISIBILITY. FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR SQUEEZING OUT THE
LLM IS PRODUCING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON IS SLOWER ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS.
THUS HAVE TRIED TO REMOVE POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA UNTIL
CLOSER TO 0Z.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE CONVERGING ON THE REGION
TODAY...ONE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART THE NORTHERN SYSTEM
WILL BE THE MOST INFLUENTIAL ON OUR CWA TODAY...HOWEVER LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHERN CWA AS
EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE
WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL ONLY
SHOWING WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING...BUT THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER
BECOMES VERY DEEP AS THE COLUMN COOLS OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE QPF
VALUES ARE LOW...SNOW RATIOS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY HIGH. FOR
THE MOST PART STILL FORECASTING SNOW TOTALS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH
RANGE /SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA/...ALTHOUGH
TRIED TO BACK OFF ON AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE
MODELS SHOW SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION.

COLD DRY AIR QUICKLY TAKES OVER. COMBINED WITH A STIFF NORTHERLY
WIND...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE TWENTY BELOW
ZERO RANGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN COLDER LOW TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A
WEAK...FAST MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE IN
THE PERIOD WHEN THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH
THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FAIRLY
QUICKLY...SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE NO MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF INCHES. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN THE REGION
BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY QUITE A BIT DURING THE PERIOD. AFTER NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON TUESDAY...WILL SEE A COOLER DAY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. WILL THEN SEE WAA
RETURN WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S ON
THURSDAY...THEN IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS IN FOG. THE CIGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO
MVFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VSBYS BECOMING VFR. LIGHT SNOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN GENERAL...MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 311651 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1051 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG HAS BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR WHERE WEB-CAMS SUGGEST 1/4
MILE OF VISIBILITY. FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR SQUEEZING OUT THE
LLM IS PRODUCING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON IS SLOWER ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS.
THUS HAVE TRIED TO REMOVE POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA UNTIL
CLOSER TO 0Z.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE CONVERGING ON THE REGION
TODAY...ONE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART THE NORTHERN SYSTEM
WILL BE THE MOST INFLUENTIAL ON OUR CWA TODAY...HOWEVER LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHERN CWA AS
EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE
WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL ONLY
SHOWING WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING...BUT THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER
BECOMES VERY DEEP AS THE COLUMN COOLS OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE QPF
VALUES ARE LOW...SNOW RATIOS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY HIGH. FOR
THE MOST PART STILL FORECASTING SNOW TOTALS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH
RANGE /SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA/...ALTHOUGH
TRIED TO BACK OFF ON AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE
MODELS SHOW SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION.

COLD DRY AIR QUICKLY TAKES OVER. COMBINED WITH A STIFF NORTHERLY
WIND...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE TWENTY BELOW
ZERO RANGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN COLDER LOW TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A
WEAK...FAST MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE IN
THE PERIOD WHEN THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH
THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FAIRLY
QUICKLY...SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE NO MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF INCHES. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN THE REGION
BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY QUITE A BIT DURING THE PERIOD. AFTER NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON TUESDAY...WILL SEE A COOLER DAY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. WILL THEN SEE WAA
RETURN WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S ON
THURSDAY...THEN IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS IN FOG. THE CIGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO
MVFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VSBYS BECOMING VFR. LIGHT SNOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN GENERAL...MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 311556
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
856 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

POTENT WINTER STORM TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE MID COUNS THIS
MORNING. PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHS WILL
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE NW OF THE LOW. THIS
DEFORMATION ZONE IS PROGGED TO AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL AVAILABLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF DECENT SNOWS AS LIFT EXPANDS ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR 3-4 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF TRIPP COUNTY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY. HAVE ISSUED A WW ADV FOR
THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LOW STRATUS DECK SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AS CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. SURFACE COLD FRONT AND STRATUS DECK
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND ALONG WITH THE CLOUD COVER...AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR TODAY. FURTHER WEST IN
WYOMING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER...IN THE LOWER 40S.
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
STRONG JET STREAK WILL FORCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL SKIRT SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...SUPPORTING A SEPARATE AREA OF SNOW.
OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT...IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND ACROSS TRIPP
COUNTY.

SUNDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS QUICKLY EAST...WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE MORNING. WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY LATE
IN THE DAY. ARCTIC HIGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS...AND IN THE 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 5 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BECOMING MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. A RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW OR RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
BETTER DEFINED UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT THE SURFACE...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST AREA FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY AS A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLUCTUATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WIDE VARIATION
IN TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN BECOMING COLDER THAN AVERAGE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
AGAIN WITH MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

AREA OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS OVER NERN AND NCNTRL SD WILL SINK INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...REACHING THE BLACK HILLS
AROUND 15Z THEN CONTINUING TO SINK SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ049.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 311556
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
856 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

POTENT WINTER STORM TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE MID COUNS THIS
MORNING. PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHS WILL
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE NW OF THE LOW. THIS
DEFORMATION ZONE IS PROGGED TO AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL AVAILABLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF DECENT SNOWS AS LIFT EXPANDS ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR 3-4 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF TRIPP COUNTY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY. HAVE ISSUED A WW ADV FOR
THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LOW STRATUS DECK SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AS CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. SURFACE COLD FRONT AND STRATUS DECK
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND ALONG WITH THE CLOUD COVER...AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR TODAY. FURTHER WEST IN
WYOMING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER...IN THE LOWER 40S.
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
STRONG JET STREAK WILL FORCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL SKIRT SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...SUPPORTING A SEPARATE AREA OF SNOW.
OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT...IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND ACROSS TRIPP
COUNTY.

SUNDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS QUICKLY EAST...WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE MORNING. WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY LATE
IN THE DAY. ARCTIC HIGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS...AND IN THE 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 5 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BECOMING MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. A RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW OR RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
BETTER DEFINED UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT THE SURFACE...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST AREA FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY AS A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLUCTUATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WIDE VARIATION
IN TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN BECOMING COLDER THAN AVERAGE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
AGAIN WITH MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

AREA OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS OVER NERN AND NCNTRL SD WILL SINK INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...REACHING THE BLACK HILLS
AROUND 15Z THEN CONTINUING TO SINK SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ049.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 311556
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
856 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

POTENT WINTER STORM TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE MID COUNS THIS
MORNING. PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHS WILL
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE NW OF THE LOW. THIS
DEFORMATION ZONE IS PROGGED TO AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL AVAILABLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF DECENT SNOWS AS LIFT EXPANDS ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR 3-4 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF TRIPP COUNTY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY. HAVE ISSUED A WW ADV FOR
THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LOW STRATUS DECK SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AS CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. SURFACE COLD FRONT AND STRATUS DECK
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND ALONG WITH THE CLOUD COVER...AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR TODAY. FURTHER WEST IN
WYOMING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER...IN THE LOWER 40S.
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
STRONG JET STREAK WILL FORCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL SKIRT SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...SUPPORTING A SEPARATE AREA OF SNOW.
OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT...IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND ACROSS TRIPP
COUNTY.

SUNDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS QUICKLY EAST...WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE MORNING. WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY LATE
IN THE DAY. ARCTIC HIGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS...AND IN THE 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 5 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BECOMING MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. A RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW OR RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
BETTER DEFINED UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT THE SURFACE...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST AREA FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY AS A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLUCTUATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WIDE VARIATION
IN TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN BECOMING COLDER THAN AVERAGE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
AGAIN WITH MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

AREA OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS OVER NERN AND NCNTRL SD WILL SINK INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...REACHING THE BLACK HILLS
AROUND 15Z THEN CONTINUING TO SINK SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ049.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 311556
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
856 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

POTENT WINTER STORM TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE MID COUNS THIS
MORNING. PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHS WILL
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE NW OF THE LOW. THIS
DEFORMATION ZONE IS PROGGED TO AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL AVAILABLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF DECENT SNOWS AS LIFT EXPANDS ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR 3-4 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF TRIPP COUNTY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY. HAVE ISSUED A WW ADV FOR
THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LOW STRATUS DECK SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AS CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. SURFACE COLD FRONT AND STRATUS DECK
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND ALONG WITH THE CLOUD COVER...AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR TODAY. FURTHER WEST IN
WYOMING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER...IN THE LOWER 40S.
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
STRONG JET STREAK WILL FORCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL SKIRT SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...SUPPORTING A SEPARATE AREA OF SNOW.
OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT...IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND ACROSS TRIPP
COUNTY.

SUNDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS QUICKLY EAST...WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE MORNING. WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY LATE
IN THE DAY. ARCTIC HIGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS...AND IN THE 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 5 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BECOMING MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. A RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW OR RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
BETTER DEFINED UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT THE SURFACE...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST AREA FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY AS A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLUCTUATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WIDE VARIATION
IN TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN BECOMING COLDER THAN AVERAGE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
AGAIN WITH MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

AREA OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS OVER NERN AND NCNTRL SD WILL SINK INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...REACHING THE BLACK HILLS
AROUND 15Z THEN CONTINUING TO SINK SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ049.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KFSD 311135
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
535 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THIS SNOW SYSTEM HAS BECOME STRONGER WITH EACH RUN SINCE YESTERDAY
AND NOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHWEST IOWA.
DESPITE INITIALLY MILD LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES...STEADY COOLING IS
STARTING TO CALL IN QUESTION AN INITIAL MIXTURE OF RAIN WITH THE
SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY...WITH KEEP A MIXTURE OVER A SMALL AREA FAR
SOUTH INTO THIS. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL NOT GET TOO FAR TODAY
BEFORE COOLING...GIVEN HOW MILD THEY ARE EARLY THIS MORNING.

MODELS HAVE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION PATTERN AND
AMOUNTS. THINK HERE THE AMOUNTS ARE IN GENERAL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE.
HOWEVER...THE CERTAIN COOLING AND A LOT OF THE LIFT DESTINED TO BE
IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS.
AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY LESS THAN 8 INCHES IN NORTHWEST IOWA BUT NOT
VERY MUCH LESS. GIVEN THE MODERATE WINDS AND SOME DRIFTING BUT
LITTLE OR NO BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED...PLUS AN EVENT DURATION WELL
OVER 12 HOURS IN THAT AREA...WILL KEEP THE HIGHLIGHT TO JUST AN
ADVISORY FOR NOW. THE ADVISORY WILL EXTEND NORTH AND WEST TO PART OF
SOUTHWEST MN...THE FSD AREA...MITCHELL AND THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF THE AREA IN GREGORY COUNTY. AM STARTING THE ADVISORY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ 3 PM CST/ FAR SOUTH AND AT THE START OF THE EVENING/ 6 PM
CST / FURTHER NORTH. SNOW SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FAR WEST LATE
TONIGHT BUT WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT THERE...AND INTO
SUNDAY EAST.

THE COLD AIR COMING IN WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO THE TEENS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WINDS MAY GET TO THE
BREEZY CATEGORY BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW THE SNOW HIGHER THAN
DRIFTING LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY
IN OPEN AREAS. AM CONCERNED THAT THE BLOWING SNOW MAY BE OF GREATEST
CONCERN IN NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.
THIS MAY POINT MORE TOWARDS NEEDING A WINTER STORM WARNING INSTEAD
OF AN ADVISORY IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT THINK THAT STARTING WITH
AN ADVISORY AND SEEING IF WINDS LOOK STRONGER IN FUTURE RUNS IS A
GOOD START FOR NOW. DEFINITELY SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO LOOK
AT.

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES RUSH INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.
CLEARING SKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...FRESH SNOWPACK AND WINDS SHARPLY
DECREASING WILL BRING A MUCH COLDER NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS THE WIND CHILLS
STAY OUT OF ADVISORY TERRITORY.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH RETURN FLOW
BRIEFLY RETURNING. STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND WHILE
SUPPORT IS PRETTY WEAK...COULD SEE A FEW FLAKES DEVELOP IN THE OUR
FAR EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40
IN THE LOWER BRULE. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE DROPPING ALONG THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON...CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY BEGINS TO REBOUND TO OUR WEST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME ON THURSDAY...BUT
FRIDAY READINGS IMPROVE INTO THE 30S AND EVEN SOME 40S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET WITH AREAS OF VISIBILITY 3-5SM NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA AT 12Z WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER ALL OF THE AREA
31/12Z-18Z. 31/18Z-01/00Z CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO 1-2K
FEET BUT CEILINGS AOB 1K FEET AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN SNOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FROM THE S 31/21Z-01/03Z. IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 01/12Z EXCEPT
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA OR MAINLY
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER 01/06Z/12Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ062-066-067.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ069>071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ050-063-068.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ059>061-064-065.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ089-090-098.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ020>022-031-032.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 311135
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
535 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THIS SNOW SYSTEM HAS BECOME STRONGER WITH EACH RUN SINCE YESTERDAY
AND NOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHWEST IOWA.
DESPITE INITIALLY MILD LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES...STEADY COOLING IS
STARTING TO CALL IN QUESTION AN INITIAL MIXTURE OF RAIN WITH THE
SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY...WITH KEEP A MIXTURE OVER A SMALL AREA FAR
SOUTH INTO THIS. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL NOT GET TOO FAR TODAY
BEFORE COOLING...GIVEN HOW MILD THEY ARE EARLY THIS MORNING.

MODELS HAVE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION PATTERN AND
AMOUNTS. THINK HERE THE AMOUNTS ARE IN GENERAL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE.
HOWEVER...THE CERTAIN COOLING AND A LOT OF THE LIFT DESTINED TO BE
IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS.
AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY LESS THAN 8 INCHES IN NORTHWEST IOWA BUT NOT
VERY MUCH LESS. GIVEN THE MODERATE WINDS AND SOME DRIFTING BUT
LITTLE OR NO BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED...PLUS AN EVENT DURATION WELL
OVER 12 HOURS IN THAT AREA...WILL KEEP THE HIGHLIGHT TO JUST AN
ADVISORY FOR NOW. THE ADVISORY WILL EXTEND NORTH AND WEST TO PART OF
SOUTHWEST MN...THE FSD AREA...MITCHELL AND THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF THE AREA IN GREGORY COUNTY. AM STARTING THE ADVISORY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ 3 PM CST/ FAR SOUTH AND AT THE START OF THE EVENING/ 6 PM
CST / FURTHER NORTH. SNOW SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FAR WEST LATE
TONIGHT BUT WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT THERE...AND INTO
SUNDAY EAST.

THE COLD AIR COMING IN WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO THE TEENS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WINDS MAY GET TO THE
BREEZY CATEGORY BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW THE SNOW HIGHER THAN
DRIFTING LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY
IN OPEN AREAS. AM CONCERNED THAT THE BLOWING SNOW MAY BE OF GREATEST
CONCERN IN NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.
THIS MAY POINT MORE TOWARDS NEEDING A WINTER STORM WARNING INSTEAD
OF AN ADVISORY IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT THINK THAT STARTING WITH
AN ADVISORY AND SEEING IF WINDS LOOK STRONGER IN FUTURE RUNS IS A
GOOD START FOR NOW. DEFINITELY SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO LOOK
AT.

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES RUSH INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.
CLEARING SKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...FRESH SNOWPACK AND WINDS SHARPLY
DECREASING WILL BRING A MUCH COLDER NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS THE WIND CHILLS
STAY OUT OF ADVISORY TERRITORY.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH RETURN FLOW
BRIEFLY RETURNING. STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND WHILE
SUPPORT IS PRETTY WEAK...COULD SEE A FEW FLAKES DEVELOP IN THE OUR
FAR EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40
IN THE LOWER BRULE. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE DROPPING ALONG THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON...CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY BEGINS TO REBOUND TO OUR WEST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME ON THURSDAY...BUT
FRIDAY READINGS IMPROVE INTO THE 30S AND EVEN SOME 40S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET WITH AREAS OF VISIBILITY 3-5SM NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA AT 12Z WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER ALL OF THE AREA
31/12Z-18Z. 31/18Z-01/00Z CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO 1-2K
FEET BUT CEILINGS AOB 1K FEET AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN SNOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FROM THE S 31/21Z-01/03Z. IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 01/12Z EXCEPT
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA OR MAINLY
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER 01/06Z/12Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ062-066-067.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ069>071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ050-063-068.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ059>061-064-065.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ089-090-098.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ020>022-031-032.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KABR 311127 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
527 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE CONVERGING ON THE REGION
TODAY...ONE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART THE NORTHERN SYSTEM
WILL BE THE MOST INFLUENTIAL ON OUR CWA TODAY...HOWEVER LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHERN CWA AS
EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE
WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL ONLY
SHOWING WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING...BUT THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER
BECOMES VERY DEEP AS THE COLUMN COOLS OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE QPF
VALUES ARE LOW...SNOW RATIOS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY HIGH. FOR
THE MOST PART STILL FORECASTING SNOW TOTALS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH
RANGE /SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA/...ALTHOUGH
TRIED TO BACK OFF ON AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE
MODELS SHOW SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION.

COLD DRY AIR QUICKLY TAKES OVER. COMBINED WITH A STIFF NORTHERLY
WIND...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE TWENTY BELOW
ZERO RANGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN COLDER LOW TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A
WEAK...FAST MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE IN
THE PERIOD WHEN THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH
THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FAIRLY
QUICKLY...SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE NO MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF INCHES. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN THE REGION
BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY QUITE A BIT DURING THE PERIOD. AFTER NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON TUESDAY...WILL SEE A COOLER DAY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. WILL THEN SEE WAA
RETURN WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S ON
THURSDAY...THEN IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS IN FOG. THE CIGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO
MVFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VSBYS BECOMING VFR. LIGHT SNOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN GENERAL...MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 311127 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
527 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE CONVERGING ON THE REGION
TODAY...ONE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART THE NORTHERN SYSTEM
WILL BE THE MOST INFLUENTIAL ON OUR CWA TODAY...HOWEVER LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHERN CWA AS
EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE
WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL ONLY
SHOWING WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING...BUT THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER
BECOMES VERY DEEP AS THE COLUMN COOLS OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE QPF
VALUES ARE LOW...SNOW RATIOS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY HIGH. FOR
THE MOST PART STILL FORECASTING SNOW TOTALS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH
RANGE /SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA/...ALTHOUGH
TRIED TO BACK OFF ON AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE
MODELS SHOW SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION.

COLD DRY AIR QUICKLY TAKES OVER. COMBINED WITH A STIFF NORTHERLY
WIND...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE TWENTY BELOW
ZERO RANGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN COLDER LOW TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A
WEAK...FAST MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE IN
THE PERIOD WHEN THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH
THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FAIRLY
QUICKLY...SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE NO MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF INCHES. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN THE REGION
BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY QUITE A BIT DURING THE PERIOD. AFTER NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON TUESDAY...WILL SEE A COOLER DAY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. WILL THEN SEE WAA
RETURN WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S ON
THURSDAY...THEN IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS IN FOG. THE CIGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO
MVFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VSBYS BECOMING VFR. LIGHT SNOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN GENERAL...MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KUNR 311113
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
413 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LOW STRATUS DECK SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AS CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. SURFACE COLD FRONT AND STRATUS DECK
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND ALONG WITH THE CLOUD COVER...AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR TODAY. FURTHER WEST IN
WYOMING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER...IN THE LOWER 40S.
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
STRONG JET STREAK WILL FORCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL SKIRT SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...SUPPORTING A SEPARATE AREA OF SNOW.
OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT...IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND ACROSS TRIPP
COUNTY.

SUNDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS QUICKLY EAST...WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE MORNING. WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY LATE
IN THE DAY. ARCTIC HIGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS...AND IN THE 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 5 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BECOMING MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. A RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW OR RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
BETTER DEFINED UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT THE SURFACE...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST AREA FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY AS A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLUCTUATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WIDE VARIATION
IN TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN BECOMING COLDER THAN AVERAGE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
AGAIN WITH MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

AREA OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS OVER NERN AND NCNTRL SD WILL SINK INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...REACHING THE BLACK HILLS
AROUND 15Z THEN CONTINUING TO SINK SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 311113
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
413 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LOW STRATUS DECK SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AS CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. SURFACE COLD FRONT AND STRATUS DECK
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND ALONG WITH THE CLOUD COVER...AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR TODAY. FURTHER WEST IN
WYOMING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER...IN THE LOWER 40S.
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
STRONG JET STREAK WILL FORCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL SKIRT SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...SUPPORTING A SEPARATE AREA OF SNOW.
OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT...IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND ACROSS TRIPP
COUNTY.

SUNDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS QUICKLY EAST...WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE MORNING. WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY LATE
IN THE DAY. ARCTIC HIGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS...AND IN THE 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 5 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BECOMING MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. A RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW OR RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
BETTER DEFINED UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT THE SURFACE...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST AREA FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY AS A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLUCTUATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WIDE VARIATION
IN TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN BECOMING COLDER THAN AVERAGE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
AGAIN WITH MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

AREA OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS OVER NERN AND NCNTRL SD WILL SINK INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...REACHING THE BLACK HILLS
AROUND 15Z THEN CONTINUING TO SINK SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KABR 310953
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
353 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE CONVERGING ON THE REGION
TODAY...ONE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART THE NORTHERN SYSTEM
WILL BE THE MOST INFLUENTIAL ON OUR CWA TODAY...HOWEVER LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHERN CWA AS
EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE
WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL ONLY
SHOWING WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING...BUT THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER
BECOMES VERY DEEP AS THE COLUMN COOLS OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE QPF
VALUES ARE LOW...SNOW RATIOS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY HIGH. FOR
THE MOST PART STILL FORECASTING SNOW TOTALS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH
RANGE /SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA/...ALTHOUGH
TRIED TO BACK OFF ON AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE
MODELS SHOW SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION.

COLD DRY AIR QUICKLY TAKES OVER. COMBINED WITH A STIFF NORTHERLY
WIND...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE TWENTY BELOW
ZERO RANGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN COLDER LOW TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A
WEAK...FAST MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE IN
THE PERIOD WHEN THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH
THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FAIRLY
QUICKLY...SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE NO MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF INCHES. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN THE REGION
BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY QUITE A BIT DURING THE PERIOD. AFTER NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON TUESDAY...WILL SEE A COOLER DAY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. WILL THEN SEE WAA
RETURN WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S ON
THURSDAY...THEN IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THESE WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REGION BY MORNING WITH VFR SKIES BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS BECOMING IFR/MVFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 310953
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
353 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE CONVERGING ON THE REGION
TODAY...ONE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART THE NORTHERN SYSTEM
WILL BE THE MOST INFLUENTIAL ON OUR CWA TODAY...HOWEVER LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHERN CWA AS
EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE
WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL ONLY
SHOWING WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING...BUT THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER
BECOMES VERY DEEP AS THE COLUMN COOLS OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE QPF
VALUES ARE LOW...SNOW RATIOS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY HIGH. FOR
THE MOST PART STILL FORECASTING SNOW TOTALS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH
RANGE /SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA/...ALTHOUGH
TRIED TO BACK OFF ON AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE
MODELS SHOW SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION.

COLD DRY AIR QUICKLY TAKES OVER. COMBINED WITH A STIFF NORTHERLY
WIND...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE TWENTY BELOW
ZERO RANGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN COLDER LOW TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A
WEAK...FAST MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE IN
THE PERIOD WHEN THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH
THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FAIRLY
QUICKLY...SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE NO MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF INCHES. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN THE REGION
BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY QUITE A BIT DURING THE PERIOD. AFTER NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON TUESDAY...WILL SEE A COOLER DAY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. WILL THEN SEE WAA
RETURN WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S ON
THURSDAY...THEN IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THESE WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REGION BY MORNING WITH VFR SKIES BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS BECOMING IFR/MVFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 310953
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
353 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE CONVERGING ON THE REGION
TODAY...ONE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART THE NORTHERN SYSTEM
WILL BE THE MOST INFLUENTIAL ON OUR CWA TODAY...HOWEVER LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHERN CWA AS
EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE
WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL ONLY
SHOWING WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING...BUT THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER
BECOMES VERY DEEP AS THE COLUMN COOLS OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE QPF
VALUES ARE LOW...SNOW RATIOS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY HIGH. FOR
THE MOST PART STILL FORECASTING SNOW TOTALS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH
RANGE /SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA/...ALTHOUGH
TRIED TO BACK OFF ON AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE
MODELS SHOW SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION.

COLD DRY AIR QUICKLY TAKES OVER. COMBINED WITH A STIFF NORTHERLY
WIND...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE TWENTY BELOW
ZERO RANGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN COLDER LOW TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A
WEAK...FAST MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE IN
THE PERIOD WHEN THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH
THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FAIRLY
QUICKLY...SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE NO MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF INCHES. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN THE REGION
BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY QUITE A BIT DURING THE PERIOD. AFTER NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON TUESDAY...WILL SEE A COOLER DAY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. WILL THEN SEE WAA
RETURN WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S ON
THURSDAY...THEN IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THESE WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REGION BY MORNING WITH VFR SKIES BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS BECOMING IFR/MVFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 310953
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
353 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE CONVERGING ON THE REGION
TODAY...ONE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART THE NORTHERN SYSTEM
WILL BE THE MOST INFLUENTIAL ON OUR CWA TODAY...HOWEVER LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHERN CWA AS
EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE
WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL ONLY
SHOWING WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING...BUT THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER
BECOMES VERY DEEP AS THE COLUMN COOLS OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE QPF
VALUES ARE LOW...SNOW RATIOS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY HIGH. FOR
THE MOST PART STILL FORECASTING SNOW TOTALS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH
RANGE /SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA/...ALTHOUGH
TRIED TO BACK OFF ON AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE
MODELS SHOW SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION.

COLD DRY AIR QUICKLY TAKES OVER. COMBINED WITH A STIFF NORTHERLY
WIND...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE TWENTY BELOW
ZERO RANGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN COLDER LOW TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A
WEAK...FAST MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE IN
THE PERIOD WHEN THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH
THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FAIRLY
QUICKLY...SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE NO MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF INCHES. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN THE REGION
BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY QUITE A BIT DURING THE PERIOD. AFTER NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON TUESDAY...WILL SEE A COOLER DAY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. WILL THEN SEE WAA
RETURN WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S ON
THURSDAY...THEN IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THESE WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REGION BY MORNING WITH VFR SKIES BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS BECOMING IFR/MVFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 310932
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
332 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THIS SNOW SYSTEM HAS BECOME STRONGER WITH EACH RUN SINCE YESTERDAY
AND NOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHWEST IOWA.
DESPITE INITIALLY MILD LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES...STEADY COOLING IS
STARTING TO CALL IN QUESTION AN INITIAL MIXTURE OF RAIN WITH THE
SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY...WITH KEEP A MIXTURE OVER A SMALL AREA FAR
SOUTH INTO THIS. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL NOT GET TOO FAR TODAY
BEFORE COOLING...GIVEN HOW MILD THEY ARE EARLY THIS MORNING.

MODELS HAVE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION PATTERN AND
AMOUNTS. THINK HERE THE AMOUNTS ARE IN GENERAL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE.
HOWEVER...THE CERTAIN COOLING AND A LOT OF THE LIFT DESTINED TO BE
IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS.
AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY LESS THAN 8 INCHES IN NORTHWEST IOWA BUT NOT
VERY MUCH LESS. GIVEN THE MODERATE WINDS AND SOME DRIFTING BUT
LITTLE OR NO BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED...PLUS AN EVENT DURATION WELL
OVER 12 HOURS IN THAT AREA...WILL KEEP THE HIGHLIGHT TO JUST AN
ADVISORY FOR NOW. THE ADVISORY WILL EXTEND NORTH AND WEST TO PART OF
SOUTHWEST MN...THE FSD AREA...MITCHELL AND THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF THE AREA IN GREGORY COUNTY. AM STARTING THE ADVISORY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ 3 PM CST/ FAR SOUTH AND AT THE START OF THE EVENING/ 6 PM
CST / FURTHER NORTH. SNOW SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FAR WEST LATE
TONIGHT BUT WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT THERE...AND INTO
SUNDAY EAST.

THE COLD AIR COMING IN WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO THE TEENS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WINDS MAY GET TO THE
BREEZY CATEGORY BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW THE SNOW HIGHER THAN
DRIFTING LEVEL.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY
IN OPEN AREAS. AM CONCERNED THAT THE BLOWING SNOW MAY BE OF GREATEST
CONCERN IN NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.
THIS MAY POINT MORE TOWARDS NEEDING A WINTER STORM WARNING INSTEAD
OF AN ADVISORY IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT THINK THAT STARTING WITH
AN ADVISORY AND SEEING IF WINDS LOOK STRONGER IN FUTURE RUNS IS A
GOOD START FOR NOW. DEFINITELY SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO LOOK
AT.

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES RUSH INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.
CLEARING SKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...FRESH SNOWPACK AND WINDS SHARPLY
DECREASING WILL BRING A MUCH COLDER NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS THE WIND CHILLS
STAY OUT OF ADVISORY TERRITORY.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH RETURN FLOW
BRIEFLY RETURNING. STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND WHILE
SUPPORT IS PRETTY WEAK...COULD SEE A FEW FLAKES DEVELOP IN THE OUR
FAR EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40
IN THE LOWER BRULE. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE DROPPING ALONG THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON...CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY BEGINS TO REBOUND TO OUR WEST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME ON THURSDAY...BUT
FRIDAY READINGS IMPROVE INTO THE 30S AND EVEN SOME 40S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE NIGHT. HOWEVER IFR TO MVFR STRATUS
CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
LOW STRATUS MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA. SO BY MID MORNING WOULD
EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO BE IFR TO MVFR. WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO THE AREA AFTER
18Z. THIS SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAKING IT TO AROUND INTERSTATE 90 BY 0Z. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY AS WELL BY LATER SATURDAY...SUSTAINED 15 TO
20 KTS. THUS WOULD EXPECT IFR...EVEN PERIODS OF LIFR...VISIBILITY IN
THE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ062-066-067.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ069>071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ050-063-068.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ059>061-064-065.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ089-090-098.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ020>022-031-032.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 310932
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
332 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THIS SNOW SYSTEM HAS BECOME STRONGER WITH EACH RUN SINCE YESTERDAY
AND NOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHWEST IOWA.
DESPITE INITIALLY MILD LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES...STEADY COOLING IS
STARTING TO CALL IN QUESTION AN INITIAL MIXTURE OF RAIN WITH THE
SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY...WITH KEEP A MIXTURE OVER A SMALL AREA FAR
SOUTH INTO THIS. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL NOT GET TOO FAR TODAY
BEFORE COOLING...GIVEN HOW MILD THEY ARE EARLY THIS MORNING.

MODELS HAVE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION PATTERN AND
AMOUNTS. THINK HERE THE AMOUNTS ARE IN GENERAL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE.
HOWEVER...THE CERTAIN COOLING AND A LOT OF THE LIFT DESTINED TO BE
IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS.
AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY LESS THAN 8 INCHES IN NORTHWEST IOWA BUT NOT
VERY MUCH LESS. GIVEN THE MODERATE WINDS AND SOME DRIFTING BUT
LITTLE OR NO BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED...PLUS AN EVENT DURATION WELL
OVER 12 HOURS IN THAT AREA...WILL KEEP THE HIGHLIGHT TO JUST AN
ADVISORY FOR NOW. THE ADVISORY WILL EXTEND NORTH AND WEST TO PART OF
SOUTHWEST MN...THE FSD AREA...MITCHELL AND THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF THE AREA IN GREGORY COUNTY. AM STARTING THE ADVISORY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ 3 PM CST/ FAR SOUTH AND AT THE START OF THE EVENING/ 6 PM
CST / FURTHER NORTH. SNOW SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FAR WEST LATE
TONIGHT BUT WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT THERE...AND INTO
SUNDAY EAST.

THE COLD AIR COMING IN WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO THE TEENS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WINDS MAY GET TO THE
BREEZY CATEGORY BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW THE SNOW HIGHER THAN
DRIFTING LEVEL.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY
IN OPEN AREAS. AM CONCERNED THAT THE BLOWING SNOW MAY BE OF GREATEST
CONCERN IN NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.
THIS MAY POINT MORE TOWARDS NEEDING A WINTER STORM WARNING INSTEAD
OF AN ADVISORY IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT THINK THAT STARTING WITH
AN ADVISORY AND SEEING IF WINDS LOOK STRONGER IN FUTURE RUNS IS A
GOOD START FOR NOW. DEFINITELY SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO LOOK
AT.

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES RUSH INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.
CLEARING SKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...FRESH SNOWPACK AND WINDS SHARPLY
DECREASING WILL BRING A MUCH COLDER NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS THE WIND CHILLS
STAY OUT OF ADVISORY TERRITORY.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH RETURN FLOW
BRIEFLY RETURNING. STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND WHILE
SUPPORT IS PRETTY WEAK...COULD SEE A FEW FLAKES DEVELOP IN THE OUR
FAR EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40
IN THE LOWER BRULE. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE DROPPING ALONG THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON...CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY BEGINS TO REBOUND TO OUR WEST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME ON THURSDAY...BUT
FRIDAY READINGS IMPROVE INTO THE 30S AND EVEN SOME 40S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE NIGHT. HOWEVER IFR TO MVFR STRATUS
CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
LOW STRATUS MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA. SO BY MID MORNING WOULD
EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO BE IFR TO MVFR. WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO THE AREA AFTER
18Z. THIS SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAKING IT TO AROUND INTERSTATE 90 BY 0Z. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY AS WELL BY LATER SATURDAY...SUSTAINED 15 TO
20 KTS. THUS WOULD EXPECT IFR...EVEN PERIODS OF LIFR...VISIBILITY IN
THE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ062-066-067.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ069>071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ050-063-068.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ059>061-064-065.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ089-090-098.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ020>022-031-032.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KABR 310556 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1156 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS IN WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SLOWLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. ADJUSTED SKY COVER. UPDATED FORECAST.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SNOW ACCUMULATION...PLACEMENT AND TIMING
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MID-MORNING.

CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES AND THE LAST PUSH OF WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR A GOOD WEEK HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 30S
AND 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH SOME 50S WORKING INTO THE
FAR WESTERN FORECAST ZONES. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT POISED IN
NORTH DAKOTA TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

TEMPS/WINDS...ARCTIC COLD AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT AND DOES NOT STOP UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS/SNOW...CLOSER TO 12Z SATURDAY...SHOULD START TO SEE A LAYER
OF STRATUS WORKING DOWN INTO THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE /OVER B.C. CANADA/ APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE WRINKLE...ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE ENERGY /OVER
THE SWRN U.S./ IS ALSO GOING TO BE LIFTING UP ONTO THE PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AND MODELS SEEM TO THINK THAT
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO ONE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEFORE TRACKING OFF TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AND THAT COULD MEAN
THAT CURRENT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FORECAST SNOWFALL ENDS UP BEING
OFF A BIT. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...STILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
SHOWING UP BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS NC SODAK AND SPREADING
SEWD OVERNIGHT. DID EXTEND POPS/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE FIRST PART
OF SUNDAY PER THE SLIGHT SLOW DOWN IN QPF DEPARTURE NOTED IN THE
12Z SUITE OF MODELS. STILL DEALING WITH GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS OF QPF IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT GIVEN HOW COLD IT WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SLR`S SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG AND UP TO 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM EUREKA TO HAYTI. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT IN
THIS INSTANCE...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION/ENTRAINMENT WILL EAT
UP MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING.
HOWEVER...12Z MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12/GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF
ALL STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL. THE 15Z RUN OF THE
SREF WAS ALSO STILL PEGGING HIGH END PROBABILITIES OF SEEING AT
LEAST AN INCH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IF MODELS MAINTAIN CURRENT STRENGTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE IT`S SNOWING...MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTION TO THE WEATHER GRIDS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A
HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP
THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA ON MONDAY LACKS
SIGNIFICANT LLM MOISTURE WITH ONLY MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

THE SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL
HAVE BETTER LLM ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS ARE IN A GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AFFECTING LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE. INCREASING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THESE WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REGION BY MORNING WITH VFR SKIES BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS BECOMING IFR/MVFR.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 310556 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1156 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS IN WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SLOWLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. ADJUSTED SKY COVER. UPDATED FORECAST.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SNOW ACCUMULATION...PLACEMENT AND TIMING
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MID-MORNING.

CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES AND THE LAST PUSH OF WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR A GOOD WEEK HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 30S
AND 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH SOME 50S WORKING INTO THE
FAR WESTERN FORECAST ZONES. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT POISED IN
NORTH DAKOTA TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

TEMPS/WINDS...ARCTIC COLD AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT AND DOES NOT STOP UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS/SNOW...CLOSER TO 12Z SATURDAY...SHOULD START TO SEE A LAYER
OF STRATUS WORKING DOWN INTO THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE /OVER B.C. CANADA/ APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE WRINKLE...ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE ENERGY /OVER
THE SWRN U.S./ IS ALSO GOING TO BE LIFTING UP ONTO THE PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AND MODELS SEEM TO THINK THAT
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO ONE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEFORE TRACKING OFF TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AND THAT COULD MEAN
THAT CURRENT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FORECAST SNOWFALL ENDS UP BEING
OFF A BIT. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...STILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
SHOWING UP BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS NC SODAK AND SPREADING
SEWD OVERNIGHT. DID EXTEND POPS/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE FIRST PART
OF SUNDAY PER THE SLIGHT SLOW DOWN IN QPF DEPARTURE NOTED IN THE
12Z SUITE OF MODELS. STILL DEALING WITH GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS OF QPF IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT GIVEN HOW COLD IT WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SLR`S SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG AND UP TO 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM EUREKA TO HAYTI. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT IN
THIS INSTANCE...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION/ENTRAINMENT WILL EAT
UP MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING.
HOWEVER...12Z MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12/GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF
ALL STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL. THE 15Z RUN OF THE
SREF WAS ALSO STILL PEGGING HIGH END PROBABILITIES OF SEEING AT
LEAST AN INCH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IF MODELS MAINTAIN CURRENT STRENGTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE IT`S SNOWING...MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTION TO THE WEATHER GRIDS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A
HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP
THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA ON MONDAY LACKS
SIGNIFICANT LLM MOISTURE WITH ONLY MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

THE SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL
HAVE BETTER LLM ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS ARE IN A GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AFFECTING LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE. INCREASING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THESE WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REGION BY MORNING WITH VFR SKIES BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS BECOMING IFR/MVFR.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 310556 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1156 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS IN WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SLOWLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. ADJUSTED SKY COVER. UPDATED FORECAST.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SNOW ACCUMULATION...PLACEMENT AND TIMING
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MID-MORNING.

CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES AND THE LAST PUSH OF WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR A GOOD WEEK HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 30S
AND 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH SOME 50S WORKING INTO THE
FAR WESTERN FORECAST ZONES. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT POISED IN
NORTH DAKOTA TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

TEMPS/WINDS...ARCTIC COLD AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT AND DOES NOT STOP UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS/SNOW...CLOSER TO 12Z SATURDAY...SHOULD START TO SEE A LAYER
OF STRATUS WORKING DOWN INTO THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE /OVER B.C. CANADA/ APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE WRINKLE...ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE ENERGY /OVER
THE SWRN U.S./ IS ALSO GOING TO BE LIFTING UP ONTO THE PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AND MODELS SEEM TO THINK THAT
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO ONE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEFORE TRACKING OFF TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AND THAT COULD MEAN
THAT CURRENT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FORECAST SNOWFALL ENDS UP BEING
OFF A BIT. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...STILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
SHOWING UP BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS NC SODAK AND SPREADING
SEWD OVERNIGHT. DID EXTEND POPS/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE FIRST PART
OF SUNDAY PER THE SLIGHT SLOW DOWN IN QPF DEPARTURE NOTED IN THE
12Z SUITE OF MODELS. STILL DEALING WITH GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS OF QPF IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT GIVEN HOW COLD IT WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SLR`S SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG AND UP TO 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM EUREKA TO HAYTI. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT IN
THIS INSTANCE...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION/ENTRAINMENT WILL EAT
UP MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING.
HOWEVER...12Z MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12/GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF
ALL STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL. THE 15Z RUN OF THE
SREF WAS ALSO STILL PEGGING HIGH END PROBABILITIES OF SEEING AT
LEAST AN INCH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IF MODELS MAINTAIN CURRENT STRENGTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE IT`S SNOWING...MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTION TO THE WEATHER GRIDS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A
HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP
THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA ON MONDAY LACKS
SIGNIFICANT LLM MOISTURE WITH ONLY MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

THE SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL
HAVE BETTER LLM ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS ARE IN A GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AFFECTING LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE. INCREASING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THESE WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REGION BY MORNING WITH VFR SKIES BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS BECOMING IFR/MVFR.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 310556 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1156 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS IN WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SLOWLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. ADJUSTED SKY COVER. UPDATED FORECAST.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SNOW ACCUMULATION...PLACEMENT AND TIMING
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MID-MORNING.

CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES AND THE LAST PUSH OF WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR A GOOD WEEK HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 30S
AND 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH SOME 50S WORKING INTO THE
FAR WESTERN FORECAST ZONES. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT POISED IN
NORTH DAKOTA TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

TEMPS/WINDS...ARCTIC COLD AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT AND DOES NOT STOP UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS/SNOW...CLOSER TO 12Z SATURDAY...SHOULD START TO SEE A LAYER
OF STRATUS WORKING DOWN INTO THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE /OVER B.C. CANADA/ APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE WRINKLE...ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE ENERGY /OVER
THE SWRN U.S./ IS ALSO GOING TO BE LIFTING UP ONTO THE PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AND MODELS SEEM TO THINK THAT
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO ONE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEFORE TRACKING OFF TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AND THAT COULD MEAN
THAT CURRENT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FORECAST SNOWFALL ENDS UP BEING
OFF A BIT. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...STILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
SHOWING UP BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS NC SODAK AND SPREADING
SEWD OVERNIGHT. DID EXTEND POPS/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE FIRST PART
OF SUNDAY PER THE SLIGHT SLOW DOWN IN QPF DEPARTURE NOTED IN THE
12Z SUITE OF MODELS. STILL DEALING WITH GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS OF QPF IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT GIVEN HOW COLD IT WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SLR`S SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG AND UP TO 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM EUREKA TO HAYTI. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT IN
THIS INSTANCE...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION/ENTRAINMENT WILL EAT
UP MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING.
HOWEVER...12Z MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12/GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF
ALL STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL. THE 15Z RUN OF THE
SREF WAS ALSO STILL PEGGING HIGH END PROBABILITIES OF SEEING AT
LEAST AN INCH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IF MODELS MAINTAIN CURRENT STRENGTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE IT`S SNOWING...MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTION TO THE WEATHER GRIDS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A
HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP
THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA ON MONDAY LACKS
SIGNIFICANT LLM MOISTURE WITH ONLY MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

THE SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL
HAVE BETTER LLM ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS ARE IN A GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AFFECTING LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE. INCREASING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THESE WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REGION BY MORNING WITH VFR SKIES BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS BECOMING IFR/MVFR.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 310443
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1043 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

18Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUED THE UPWARD TREND WITH QPF...AS WELL AS
THE 21Z SREF AND 0Z NAM. THUS WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS
ACROSS THE AREA BY ABOUT AN INCH. THIS YIELDS CLOSER TO 3 TO 4
INCHES IN SIOUX FALLS AND 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS STILL MAY BE A BIT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE...BUT WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK
AT THE FULL SUITE OF 0Z GUIDANCE AND MAKE ANY ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. WILL LIKELY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT AGAIN WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AND COORDINATE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. TIMING LOOKS
A BIT QUICKER AS WELL...WITH LIGHT SNOW MAKING IT TO INTERSTATE 90
BY 5 OR 6 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BUT
HANG UP SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AS A SERIES OF WAVES
BREAK OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF WAVE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO WARM UP. MODELS SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST DEEPENING
STRATUS QUICKLY DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. WITH DEEPENING
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST FLOW...HAVE SQUASHED DIURNAL SPREAD ON
SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF JET STREAK ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OF THE US.  WITH WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SATURATION
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH TO LEAD TOWARDS SNOW
DEVELOPING.  HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THERE IS A SECOND WAVE APPROACHING IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET...BUT ITS EFFECTS MAINLY HOLD OFF TILL
AFTER 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ON SWINGING THROUGH A NICE SNOW MAKING SYSTEM. THE MODELS BEGAN TO
AGREE ON LAST NIGHTS RUNS AND THE 6Z AND NOW 12Z RUNS SUPPORT THE
INCREASE THREAT FOR SNOW. A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
MERGE NEAR THE AREA...WHICH SLOWS THINGS DOWN A BIT AND BRINGS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT
3Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER WILL WORK
WITH SOME DECENT FORCING AND MOISTURE TO ALLOW THE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY PASSES ON SUNDAY MORNING
THE THREAT FOR SNOWFALL SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY. WHILE IT
WILL BE A BIT WINDY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NOT PLANNING ON
A LOT OF BLOWING SNOW SINCE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOW ON THE GROUND
RIGHT NOW. MODEL QPF ALSO PRETTY AGREEABLE AVERAGING THREE TO FOUR
TENTHS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA...THEN DIMINISHING TO
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH NEAR 9V9 AND HON. THE NAM IS THE ONLY ONE
THAT BRINGS THESE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND IS
RUNNING ABOUT THREE TENTHS HIGHER THAN THE OTHER MODELS...SO WILL
MOSTLY IGNORE ITS OUTPUT. BECAUSE FREQUENTLY THE MODELS SEEM TO
OVERDUE QPF AMOUNTS JUST A BIT...WILL KEEP QPF TOTALS CLOSER TO A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. THIS PLACES TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF A YANKTON TO SIOUX FALLS TO WINDOM
LINE...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARDS SPENCER IOWA AND STORM LAKE.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ANOTHER LOBE OF
ENERGY EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS ENERGY
IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON BY THE MODELS. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN SO EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO
FRIDAY. THE COLDEST DAYS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
WITH SOME NEW SNOW LIKELY ON THE GROUND WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT THE WARMING AT THIS TIME. WILL SIDE TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE NIGHT. HOWEVER IFR TO MVFR STRATUS
CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
LOW STRATUS MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA. SO BY MID MORNING WOULD
EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO BE IFR TO MVFR. WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO THE AREA AFTER
18Z. THIS SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAKING IT TO AROUND INTERSTATE 90 BY 0Z. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY AS WELL BY LATER SATURDAY...SUSTAINED 15 TO
20 KTS. THUS WOULD EXPECT IFR...EVEN PERIODS OF LIFR...VISIBILITY IN
THE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 310443
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1043 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

18Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUED THE UPWARD TREND WITH QPF...AS WELL AS
THE 21Z SREF AND 0Z NAM. THUS WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS
ACROSS THE AREA BY ABOUT AN INCH. THIS YIELDS CLOSER TO 3 TO 4
INCHES IN SIOUX FALLS AND 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS STILL MAY BE A BIT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE...BUT WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK
AT THE FULL SUITE OF 0Z GUIDANCE AND MAKE ANY ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. WILL LIKELY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT AGAIN WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AND COORDINATE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. TIMING LOOKS
A BIT QUICKER AS WELL...WITH LIGHT SNOW MAKING IT TO INTERSTATE 90
BY 5 OR 6 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BUT
HANG UP SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AS A SERIES OF WAVES
BREAK OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF WAVE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO WARM UP. MODELS SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST DEEPENING
STRATUS QUICKLY DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. WITH DEEPENING
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST FLOW...HAVE SQUASHED DIURNAL SPREAD ON
SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF JET STREAK ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OF THE US.  WITH WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SATURATION
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH TO LEAD TOWARDS SNOW
DEVELOPING.  HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THERE IS A SECOND WAVE APPROACHING IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET...BUT ITS EFFECTS MAINLY HOLD OFF TILL
AFTER 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ON SWINGING THROUGH A NICE SNOW MAKING SYSTEM. THE MODELS BEGAN TO
AGREE ON LAST NIGHTS RUNS AND THE 6Z AND NOW 12Z RUNS SUPPORT THE
INCREASE THREAT FOR SNOW. A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
MERGE NEAR THE AREA...WHICH SLOWS THINGS DOWN A BIT AND BRINGS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT
3Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER WILL WORK
WITH SOME DECENT FORCING AND MOISTURE TO ALLOW THE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY PASSES ON SUNDAY MORNING
THE THREAT FOR SNOWFALL SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY. WHILE IT
WILL BE A BIT WINDY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NOT PLANNING ON
A LOT OF BLOWING SNOW SINCE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOW ON THE GROUND
RIGHT NOW. MODEL QPF ALSO PRETTY AGREEABLE AVERAGING THREE TO FOUR
TENTHS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA...THEN DIMINISHING TO
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH NEAR 9V9 AND HON. THE NAM IS THE ONLY ONE
THAT BRINGS THESE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND IS
RUNNING ABOUT THREE TENTHS HIGHER THAN THE OTHER MODELS...SO WILL
MOSTLY IGNORE ITS OUTPUT. BECAUSE FREQUENTLY THE MODELS SEEM TO
OVERDUE QPF AMOUNTS JUST A BIT...WILL KEEP QPF TOTALS CLOSER TO A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. THIS PLACES TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF A YANKTON TO SIOUX FALLS TO WINDOM
LINE...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARDS SPENCER IOWA AND STORM LAKE.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ANOTHER LOBE OF
ENERGY EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS ENERGY
IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON BY THE MODELS. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN SO EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO
FRIDAY. THE COLDEST DAYS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
WITH SOME NEW SNOW LIKELY ON THE GROUND WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT THE WARMING AT THIS TIME. WILL SIDE TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE NIGHT. HOWEVER IFR TO MVFR STRATUS
CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
LOW STRATUS MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA. SO BY MID MORNING WOULD
EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO BE IFR TO MVFR. WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO THE AREA AFTER
18Z. THIS SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAKING IT TO AROUND INTERSTATE 90 BY 0Z. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY AS WELL BY LATER SATURDAY...SUSTAINED 15 TO
20 KTS. THUS WOULD EXPECT IFR...EVEN PERIODS OF LIFR...VISIBILITY IN
THE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 310443
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1043 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

18Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUED THE UPWARD TREND WITH QPF...AS WELL AS
THE 21Z SREF AND 0Z NAM. THUS WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS
ACROSS THE AREA BY ABOUT AN INCH. THIS YIELDS CLOSER TO 3 TO 4
INCHES IN SIOUX FALLS AND 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS STILL MAY BE A BIT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE...BUT WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK
AT THE FULL SUITE OF 0Z GUIDANCE AND MAKE ANY ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. WILL LIKELY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT AGAIN WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AND COORDINATE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. TIMING LOOKS
A BIT QUICKER AS WELL...WITH LIGHT SNOW MAKING IT TO INTERSTATE 90
BY 5 OR 6 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BUT
HANG UP SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AS A SERIES OF WAVES
BREAK OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF WAVE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO WARM UP. MODELS SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST DEEPENING
STRATUS QUICKLY DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. WITH DEEPENING
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST FLOW...HAVE SQUASHED DIURNAL SPREAD ON
SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF JET STREAK ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OF THE US.  WITH WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SATURATION
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH TO LEAD TOWARDS SNOW
DEVELOPING.  HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THERE IS A SECOND WAVE APPROACHING IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET...BUT ITS EFFECTS MAINLY HOLD OFF TILL
AFTER 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ON SWINGING THROUGH A NICE SNOW MAKING SYSTEM. THE MODELS BEGAN TO
AGREE ON LAST NIGHTS RUNS AND THE 6Z AND NOW 12Z RUNS SUPPORT THE
INCREASE THREAT FOR SNOW. A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
MERGE NEAR THE AREA...WHICH SLOWS THINGS DOWN A BIT AND BRINGS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT
3Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER WILL WORK
WITH SOME DECENT FORCING AND MOISTURE TO ALLOW THE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY PASSES ON SUNDAY MORNING
THE THREAT FOR SNOWFALL SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY. WHILE IT
WILL BE A BIT WINDY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NOT PLANNING ON
A LOT OF BLOWING SNOW SINCE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOW ON THE GROUND
RIGHT NOW. MODEL QPF ALSO PRETTY AGREEABLE AVERAGING THREE TO FOUR
TENTHS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA...THEN DIMINISHING TO
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH NEAR 9V9 AND HON. THE NAM IS THE ONLY ONE
THAT BRINGS THESE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND IS
RUNNING ABOUT THREE TENTHS HIGHER THAN THE OTHER MODELS...SO WILL
MOSTLY IGNORE ITS OUTPUT. BECAUSE FREQUENTLY THE MODELS SEEM TO
OVERDUE QPF AMOUNTS JUST A BIT...WILL KEEP QPF TOTALS CLOSER TO A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. THIS PLACES TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF A YANKTON TO SIOUX FALLS TO WINDOM
LINE...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARDS SPENCER IOWA AND STORM LAKE.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ANOTHER LOBE OF
ENERGY EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS ENERGY
IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON BY THE MODELS. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN SO EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO
FRIDAY. THE COLDEST DAYS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
WITH SOME NEW SNOW LIKELY ON THE GROUND WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT THE WARMING AT THIS TIME. WILL SIDE TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE NIGHT. HOWEVER IFR TO MVFR STRATUS
CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
LOW STRATUS MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA. SO BY MID MORNING WOULD
EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO BE IFR TO MVFR. WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO THE AREA AFTER
18Z. THIS SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAKING IT TO AROUND INTERSTATE 90 BY 0Z. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY AS WELL BY LATER SATURDAY...SUSTAINED 15 TO
20 KTS. THUS WOULD EXPECT IFR...EVEN PERIODS OF LIFR...VISIBILITY IN
THE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 310443
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1043 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

18Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUED THE UPWARD TREND WITH QPF...AS WELL AS
THE 21Z SREF AND 0Z NAM. THUS WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS
ACROSS THE AREA BY ABOUT AN INCH. THIS YIELDS CLOSER TO 3 TO 4
INCHES IN SIOUX FALLS AND 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS STILL MAY BE A BIT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE...BUT WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK
AT THE FULL SUITE OF 0Z GUIDANCE AND MAKE ANY ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. WILL LIKELY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT AGAIN WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AND COORDINATE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. TIMING LOOKS
A BIT QUICKER AS WELL...WITH LIGHT SNOW MAKING IT TO INTERSTATE 90
BY 5 OR 6 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BUT
HANG UP SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AS A SERIES OF WAVES
BREAK OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF WAVE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO WARM UP. MODELS SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST DEEPENING
STRATUS QUICKLY DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. WITH DEEPENING
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST FLOW...HAVE SQUASHED DIURNAL SPREAD ON
SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF JET STREAK ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OF THE US.  WITH WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SATURATION
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH TO LEAD TOWARDS SNOW
DEVELOPING.  HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THERE IS A SECOND WAVE APPROACHING IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET...BUT ITS EFFECTS MAINLY HOLD OFF TILL
AFTER 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ON SWINGING THROUGH A NICE SNOW MAKING SYSTEM. THE MODELS BEGAN TO
AGREE ON LAST NIGHTS RUNS AND THE 6Z AND NOW 12Z RUNS SUPPORT THE
INCREASE THREAT FOR SNOW. A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
MERGE NEAR THE AREA...WHICH SLOWS THINGS DOWN A BIT AND BRINGS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT
3Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER WILL WORK
WITH SOME DECENT FORCING AND MOISTURE TO ALLOW THE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY PASSES ON SUNDAY MORNING
THE THREAT FOR SNOWFALL SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY. WHILE IT
WILL BE A BIT WINDY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NOT PLANNING ON
A LOT OF BLOWING SNOW SINCE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOW ON THE GROUND
RIGHT NOW. MODEL QPF ALSO PRETTY AGREEABLE AVERAGING THREE TO FOUR
TENTHS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA...THEN DIMINISHING TO
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH NEAR 9V9 AND HON. THE NAM IS THE ONLY ONE
THAT BRINGS THESE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND IS
RUNNING ABOUT THREE TENTHS HIGHER THAN THE OTHER MODELS...SO WILL
MOSTLY IGNORE ITS OUTPUT. BECAUSE FREQUENTLY THE MODELS SEEM TO
OVERDUE QPF AMOUNTS JUST A BIT...WILL KEEP QPF TOTALS CLOSER TO A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. THIS PLACES TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF A YANKTON TO SIOUX FALLS TO WINDOM
LINE...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARDS SPENCER IOWA AND STORM LAKE.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ANOTHER LOBE OF
ENERGY EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS ENERGY
IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON BY THE MODELS. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN SO EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO
FRIDAY. THE COLDEST DAYS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
WITH SOME NEW SNOW LIKELY ON THE GROUND WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT THE WARMING AT THIS TIME. WILL SIDE TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE NIGHT. HOWEVER IFR TO MVFR STRATUS
CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
LOW STRATUS MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA. SO BY MID MORNING WOULD
EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO BE IFR TO MVFR. WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO THE AREA AFTER
18Z. THIS SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAKING IT TO AROUND INTERSTATE 90 BY 0Z. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY AS WELL BY LATER SATURDAY...SUSTAINED 15 TO
20 KTS. THUS WOULD EXPECT IFR...EVEN PERIODS OF LIFR...VISIBILITY IN
THE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KUNR 310413
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
913 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED ST DECK MAKING STEADY
PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 2/3RDS
OF ND. DECK SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT PER LATEST
GUIDANCE AND EXTRAPOLATION...PUSHING INTO THE BLACK HILLS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURNING WEAK
UPSLOPE...THERE IS A SMALL SIGNAL FOR SOME FOG ALONG THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS. MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE TO PUBLIC FORECASTS LATER DEPENDING
ON HOW FAR ST INFILTRATES THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IN THE PERIOD...WITH A STRONG NW
FLOW IMPULSE FORCING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY.
THIS FEATURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRONG JET STREAK WILL FORCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE AREA MAINLY SAT NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A SW CONUS UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE
WILL SKIRT THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HELPING TO PIVOT THE LL BAROCLINIC
ZONE NEAR SCENTRAL SD...SUPPORTING A SEPARATE AREA OF SNOW.
OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT...IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS NW SD AND THE NORTHERN BH FOOTHILLS.

MILD CONDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A
PASSING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA IS
FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO ND. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SSW ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
TONIGHT...STALLING OVER THE BLACK HILLS SAT. A POTENT IMPULSE NOW
OVER SOUTHERN BC WILL QUICKLY ADVECT SE INTO THE REGION
SAT...SUPPORTING INCREASING LSA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A 120 KNOT JET STREAK...WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION SPREADING OVER THE
FA. STRONG CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXPECTED ARCTIC
SURGE/STRONG LSA/AND ENHANCED LEFT EXIT FORCING WILL PRODUCE AMPLE
UVM...SUPPORTING SNOWS LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
WILL SPREAD SW ACROSS THE FA...WITH NW SD SEEING THE BEST
COLLOCATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS FOOTHILLS. THESE
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 3 POSSIBLE WHERE
FORCING PERSIST LONGEST. ADDITIONAL AND SEPARATE SNOWS LIKELY ACROSS
FAR EASTERN SCENTRAL SD WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SKIRTING SOUTHERN
PLAINS SYSTEM MOISTURE PLUME. COLD AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE
REGION WITH TONIGHT/S FIRST FRONT...STALLING OVER THE BH SAT. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE FA SAT WITH 40S EXPECTED
OVER NE WY TO UPPER 20S ACROSS FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE FA. MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS TRICKY AS SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE CWA AT TIMES. UNDER A COLDER
AIRMASS...TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. FOR
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE MUCH WARMER
TEMPS THAN PREVIOUSLY. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT THAT DIVES SOUTH TUESDAY...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SHOW WARMER AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TEMP
FORECASTS...COOLED TEMPS A BIT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
CURTAIL SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 907 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH 09Z. AN AREA OF
IFR/MVFR ST OVER ND WILL INVADE NORTHWEST SD AFTER 09Z AND MAKE
IT TO THE BLACK HILLS AROUND 15Z AND THEN SINK SOUTH/WEST THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. LOCAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AS ST INTERSECTS HIGHER
TERRAIN. A STORM SYSTEM WILL CREATE AN AREA OF -SN LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER FAR NORTHWEST SD WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVING ACROSS
ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KFSD 310316
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
916 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

18Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUED THE UPWARD TREND WITH QPF...AS WELL AS
THE 21Z SREF AND 0Z NAM. THUS WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS
ACROSS THE AREA BY ABOUT AN INCH. THIS YIELDS CLOSER TO 3 TO 4
INCHES IN SIOUX FALLS AND 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS STILL MAY BE A BIT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE...BUT WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK
AT THE FULL SUITE OF 0Z GUIDANCE AND MAKE ANY ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. WILL LIKELY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT AGAIN WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AND COORDINATE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. TIMING LOOKS
A BIT QUICKER AS WELL...WITH LIGHT SNOW MAKING IT TO INTERSTATE 90
BY 5 OR 6 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BUT
HANG UP SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AS A SERIES OF WAVES
BREAK OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF WAVE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO WARM UP. MODELS SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST DEEPENING
STRATUS QUICKLY DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. WITH DEEPENING
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST FLOW...HAVE SQUASHED DIURNAL SPREAD ON
SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF JET STREAK ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OF THE US.  WITH WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SATURATION
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH TO LEAD TOWARDS SNOW
DEVELOPING.  HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THERE IS A SECOND WAVE APPROACHING IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET...BUT ITS EFFECTS MAINLY HOLD OFF TILL
AFTER 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ON SWINGING THROUGH A NICE SNOW MAKING SYSTEM. THE MODELS BEGAN TO
AGREE ON LAST NIGHTS RUNS AND THE 6Z AND NOW 12Z RUNS SUPPORT THE
INCREASE THREAT FOR SNOW. A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
MERGE NEAR THE AREA...WHICH SLOWS THINGS DOWN A BIT AND BRINGS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT
3Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER WILL WORK
WITH SOME DECENT FORCING AND MOISTURE TO ALLOW THE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY PASSES ON SUNDAY MORNING
THE THREAT FOR SNOWFALL SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY. WHILE IT
WILL BE A BIT WINDY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NOT PLANNING ON
A LOT OF BLOWING SNOW SINCE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOW ON THE GROUND
RIGHT NOW. MODEL QPF ALSO PRETTY AGREEABLE AVERAGING THREE TO FOUR
TENTHS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA...THEN DIMINISHING TO
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH NEAR 9V9 AND HON. THE NAM IS THE ONLY ONE
THAT BRINGS THESE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND IS
RUNNING ABOUT THREE TENTHS HIGHER THAN THE OTHER MODELS...SO WILL
MOSTLY IGNORE ITS OUTPUT. BECAUSE FREQUENTLY THE MODELS SEEM TO
OVERDUE QPF AMOUNTS JUST A BIT...WILL KEEP QPF TOTALS CLOSER TO A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. THIS PLACES TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF A YANKTON TO SIOUX FALLS TO WINDOM
LINE...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARDS SPENCER IOWA AND STORM LAKE.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ANOTHER LOBE OF
ENERGY EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS ENERGY
IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON BY THE MODELS. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN SO EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO
FRIDAY. THE COLDEST DAYS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
WITH SOME NEW SNOW LIKELY ON THE GROUND WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT THE WARMING AT THIS TIME. WILL SIDE TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE NIGHT. HOWEVER IFR TO MVFR STRATUS
CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
LOW STRATUS MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA. SO BY MID MORNING WOULD
EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO BE IFR TO MVFR. WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO THE AREA AFTER
18Z. THIS SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAKING IT TO AROUND INTERSTATE 90 BY 0Z.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 310316
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
916 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

18Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUED THE UPWARD TREND WITH QPF...AS WELL AS
THE 21Z SREF AND 0Z NAM. THUS WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS
ACROSS THE AREA BY ABOUT AN INCH. THIS YIELDS CLOSER TO 3 TO 4
INCHES IN SIOUX FALLS AND 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS STILL MAY BE A BIT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE...BUT WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK
AT THE FULL SUITE OF 0Z GUIDANCE AND MAKE ANY ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. WILL LIKELY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT AGAIN WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AND COORDINATE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. TIMING LOOKS
A BIT QUICKER AS WELL...WITH LIGHT SNOW MAKING IT TO INTERSTATE 90
BY 5 OR 6 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BUT
HANG UP SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AS A SERIES OF WAVES
BREAK OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF WAVE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO WARM UP. MODELS SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST DEEPENING
STRATUS QUICKLY DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. WITH DEEPENING
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST FLOW...HAVE SQUASHED DIURNAL SPREAD ON
SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF JET STREAK ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OF THE US.  WITH WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SATURATION
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH TO LEAD TOWARDS SNOW
DEVELOPING.  HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THERE IS A SECOND WAVE APPROACHING IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET...BUT ITS EFFECTS MAINLY HOLD OFF TILL
AFTER 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ON SWINGING THROUGH A NICE SNOW MAKING SYSTEM. THE MODELS BEGAN TO
AGREE ON LAST NIGHTS RUNS AND THE 6Z AND NOW 12Z RUNS SUPPORT THE
INCREASE THREAT FOR SNOW. A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
MERGE NEAR THE AREA...WHICH SLOWS THINGS DOWN A BIT AND BRINGS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT
3Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER WILL WORK
WITH SOME DECENT FORCING AND MOISTURE TO ALLOW THE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY PASSES ON SUNDAY MORNING
THE THREAT FOR SNOWFALL SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY. WHILE IT
WILL BE A BIT WINDY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NOT PLANNING ON
A LOT OF BLOWING SNOW SINCE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOW ON THE GROUND
RIGHT NOW. MODEL QPF ALSO PRETTY AGREEABLE AVERAGING THREE TO FOUR
TENTHS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA...THEN DIMINISHING TO
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH NEAR 9V9 AND HON. THE NAM IS THE ONLY ONE
THAT BRINGS THESE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND IS
RUNNING ABOUT THREE TENTHS HIGHER THAN THE OTHER MODELS...SO WILL
MOSTLY IGNORE ITS OUTPUT. BECAUSE FREQUENTLY THE MODELS SEEM TO
OVERDUE QPF AMOUNTS JUST A BIT...WILL KEEP QPF TOTALS CLOSER TO A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. THIS PLACES TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF A YANKTON TO SIOUX FALLS TO WINDOM
LINE...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARDS SPENCER IOWA AND STORM LAKE.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ANOTHER LOBE OF
ENERGY EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS ENERGY
IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON BY THE MODELS. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN SO EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO
FRIDAY. THE COLDEST DAYS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
WITH SOME NEW SNOW LIKELY ON THE GROUND WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT THE WARMING AT THIS TIME. WILL SIDE TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE NIGHT. HOWEVER IFR TO MVFR STRATUS
CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
LOW STRATUS MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA. SO BY MID MORNING WOULD
EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO BE IFR TO MVFR. WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO THE AREA AFTER
18Z. THIS SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAKING IT TO AROUND INTERSTATE 90 BY 0Z.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 310316
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
916 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

18Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUED THE UPWARD TREND WITH QPF...AS WELL AS
THE 21Z SREF AND 0Z NAM. THUS WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS
ACROSS THE AREA BY ABOUT AN INCH. THIS YIELDS CLOSER TO 3 TO 4
INCHES IN SIOUX FALLS AND 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS STILL MAY BE A BIT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE...BUT WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK
AT THE FULL SUITE OF 0Z GUIDANCE AND MAKE ANY ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. WILL LIKELY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT AGAIN WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AND COORDINATE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. TIMING LOOKS
A BIT QUICKER AS WELL...WITH LIGHT SNOW MAKING IT TO INTERSTATE 90
BY 5 OR 6 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BUT
HANG UP SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AS A SERIES OF WAVES
BREAK OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF WAVE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO WARM UP. MODELS SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST DEEPENING
STRATUS QUICKLY DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. WITH DEEPENING
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST FLOW...HAVE SQUASHED DIURNAL SPREAD ON
SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF JET STREAK ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OF THE US.  WITH WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SATURATION
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH TO LEAD TOWARDS SNOW
DEVELOPING.  HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THERE IS A SECOND WAVE APPROACHING IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET...BUT ITS EFFECTS MAINLY HOLD OFF TILL
AFTER 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ON SWINGING THROUGH A NICE SNOW MAKING SYSTEM. THE MODELS BEGAN TO
AGREE ON LAST NIGHTS RUNS AND THE 6Z AND NOW 12Z RUNS SUPPORT THE
INCREASE THREAT FOR SNOW. A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
MERGE NEAR THE AREA...WHICH SLOWS THINGS DOWN A BIT AND BRINGS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT
3Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER WILL WORK
WITH SOME DECENT FORCING AND MOISTURE TO ALLOW THE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY PASSES ON SUNDAY MORNING
THE THREAT FOR SNOWFALL SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY. WHILE IT
WILL BE A BIT WINDY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NOT PLANNING ON
A LOT OF BLOWING SNOW SINCE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOW ON THE GROUND
RIGHT NOW. MODEL QPF ALSO PRETTY AGREEABLE AVERAGING THREE TO FOUR
TENTHS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA...THEN DIMINISHING TO
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH NEAR 9V9 AND HON. THE NAM IS THE ONLY ONE
THAT BRINGS THESE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND IS
RUNNING ABOUT THREE TENTHS HIGHER THAN THE OTHER MODELS...SO WILL
MOSTLY IGNORE ITS OUTPUT. BECAUSE FREQUENTLY THE MODELS SEEM TO
OVERDUE QPF AMOUNTS JUST A BIT...WILL KEEP QPF TOTALS CLOSER TO A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. THIS PLACES TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF A YANKTON TO SIOUX FALLS TO WINDOM
LINE...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARDS SPENCER IOWA AND STORM LAKE.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ANOTHER LOBE OF
ENERGY EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS ENERGY
IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON BY THE MODELS. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN SO EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO
FRIDAY. THE COLDEST DAYS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
WITH SOME NEW SNOW LIKELY ON THE GROUND WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT THE WARMING AT THIS TIME. WILL SIDE TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE NIGHT. HOWEVER IFR TO MVFR STRATUS
CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
LOW STRATUS MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA. SO BY MID MORNING WOULD
EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO BE IFR TO MVFR. WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO THE AREA AFTER
18Z. THIS SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAKING IT TO AROUND INTERSTATE 90 BY 0Z.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 310316
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
916 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

18Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUED THE UPWARD TREND WITH QPF...AS WELL AS
THE 21Z SREF AND 0Z NAM. THUS WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS
ACROSS THE AREA BY ABOUT AN INCH. THIS YIELDS CLOSER TO 3 TO 4
INCHES IN SIOUX FALLS AND 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS STILL MAY BE A BIT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE...BUT WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK
AT THE FULL SUITE OF 0Z GUIDANCE AND MAKE ANY ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. WILL LIKELY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT AGAIN WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AND COORDINATE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. TIMING LOOKS
A BIT QUICKER AS WELL...WITH LIGHT SNOW MAKING IT TO INTERSTATE 90
BY 5 OR 6 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BUT
HANG UP SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AS A SERIES OF WAVES
BREAK OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF WAVE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO WARM UP. MODELS SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST DEEPENING
STRATUS QUICKLY DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. WITH DEEPENING
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST FLOW...HAVE SQUASHED DIURNAL SPREAD ON
SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF JET STREAK ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OF THE US.  WITH WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SATURATION
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH TO LEAD TOWARDS SNOW
DEVELOPING.  HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THERE IS A SECOND WAVE APPROACHING IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET...BUT ITS EFFECTS MAINLY HOLD OFF TILL
AFTER 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ON SWINGING THROUGH A NICE SNOW MAKING SYSTEM. THE MODELS BEGAN TO
AGREE ON LAST NIGHTS RUNS AND THE 6Z AND NOW 12Z RUNS SUPPORT THE
INCREASE THREAT FOR SNOW. A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
MERGE NEAR THE AREA...WHICH SLOWS THINGS DOWN A BIT AND BRINGS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT
3Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER WILL WORK
WITH SOME DECENT FORCING AND MOISTURE TO ALLOW THE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY PASSES ON SUNDAY MORNING
THE THREAT FOR SNOWFALL SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY. WHILE IT
WILL BE A BIT WINDY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NOT PLANNING ON
A LOT OF BLOWING SNOW SINCE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOW ON THE GROUND
RIGHT NOW. MODEL QPF ALSO PRETTY AGREEABLE AVERAGING THREE TO FOUR
TENTHS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA...THEN DIMINISHING TO
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH NEAR 9V9 AND HON. THE NAM IS THE ONLY ONE
THAT BRINGS THESE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND IS
RUNNING ABOUT THREE TENTHS HIGHER THAN THE OTHER MODELS...SO WILL
MOSTLY IGNORE ITS OUTPUT. BECAUSE FREQUENTLY THE MODELS SEEM TO
OVERDUE QPF AMOUNTS JUST A BIT...WILL KEEP QPF TOTALS CLOSER TO A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. THIS PLACES TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF A YANKTON TO SIOUX FALLS TO WINDOM
LINE...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARDS SPENCER IOWA AND STORM LAKE.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ANOTHER LOBE OF
ENERGY EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS ENERGY
IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON BY THE MODELS. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN SO EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO
FRIDAY. THE COLDEST DAYS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
WITH SOME NEW SNOW LIKELY ON THE GROUND WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT THE WARMING AT THIS TIME. WILL SIDE TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE NIGHT. HOWEVER IFR TO MVFR STRATUS
CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
LOW STRATUS MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA. SO BY MID MORNING WOULD
EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO BE IFR TO MVFR. WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO THE AREA AFTER
18Z. THIS SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAKING IT TO AROUND INTERSTATE 90 BY 0Z.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KABR 310312 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
912 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS IN WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SLOWLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. ADJUSTED SKY COVER. UPDATED FORECAST.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SNOW ACCUMULATION...PLACEMENT AND TIMING
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MID-MORNING.

CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES AND THE LAST PUSH OF WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR A GOOD WEEK HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 30S
AND 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH SOME 50S WORKING INTO THE
FAR WESTERN FORECAST ZONES. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT POISED IN
NORTH DAKOTA TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

TEMPS/WINDS...ARCTIC COLD AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT AND DOES NOT STOP UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS/SNOW...CLOSER TO 12Z SATURDAY...SHOULD START TO SEE A LAYER
OF STRATUS WORKING DOWN INTO THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE /OVER B.C. CANADA/ APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE WRINKLE...ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE ENERGY /OVER
THE SWRN U.S./ IS ALSO GOING TO BE LIFTING UP ONTO THE PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AND MODELS SEEM TO THINK THAT
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO ONE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEFORE TRACKING OFF TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AND THAT COULD MEAN
THAT CURRENT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FORECAST SNOWFALL ENDS UP BEING
OFF A BIT. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...STILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
SHOWING UP BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS NC SODAK AND SPREADING
SEWD OVERNIGHT. DID EXTEND POPS/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE FIRST PART
OF SUNDAY PER THE SLIGHT SLOW DOWN IN QPF DEPARTURE NOTED IN THE
12Z SUITE OF MODELS. STILL DEALING WITH GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS OF QPF IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT GIVEN HOW COLD IT WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SLR`S SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG AND UP TO 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM EUREKA TO HAYTI. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT IN
THIS INSTANCE...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION/ENTRAINMENT WILL EAT
UP MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING.
HOWEVER...12Z MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12/GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF
ALL STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL. THE 15Z RUN OF THE
SREF WAS ALSO STILL PEGGING HIGH END PROBABILITIES OF SEEING AT
LEAST AN INCH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IF MODELS MAINTAIN CURRENT STRENGTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE IT`S SNOWING...MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTION TO THE WEATHER GRIDS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A
HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP
THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA ON MONDAY LACKS
SIGNIFICANT LLM MOISTURE WITH ONLY MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

THE SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL
HAVE BETTER LLM ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS ARE IN A GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AFFECTING LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE. INCREASING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS WILL ENCOMPASS
ALL LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE MBG AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 310312 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
912 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS IN WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SLOWLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. ADJUSTED SKY COVER. UPDATED FORECAST.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SNOW ACCUMULATION...PLACEMENT AND TIMING
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MID-MORNING.

CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES AND THE LAST PUSH OF WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR A GOOD WEEK HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 30S
AND 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH SOME 50S WORKING INTO THE
FAR WESTERN FORECAST ZONES. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT POISED IN
NORTH DAKOTA TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

TEMPS/WINDS...ARCTIC COLD AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT AND DOES NOT STOP UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS/SNOW...CLOSER TO 12Z SATURDAY...SHOULD START TO SEE A LAYER
OF STRATUS WORKING DOWN INTO THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE /OVER B.C. CANADA/ APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE WRINKLE...ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE ENERGY /OVER
THE SWRN U.S./ IS ALSO GOING TO BE LIFTING UP ONTO THE PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AND MODELS SEEM TO THINK THAT
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO ONE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEFORE TRACKING OFF TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AND THAT COULD MEAN
THAT CURRENT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FORECAST SNOWFALL ENDS UP BEING
OFF A BIT. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...STILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
SHOWING UP BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS NC SODAK AND SPREADING
SEWD OVERNIGHT. DID EXTEND POPS/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE FIRST PART
OF SUNDAY PER THE SLIGHT SLOW DOWN IN QPF DEPARTURE NOTED IN THE
12Z SUITE OF MODELS. STILL DEALING WITH GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS OF QPF IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT GIVEN HOW COLD IT WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SLR`S SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG AND UP TO 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM EUREKA TO HAYTI. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT IN
THIS INSTANCE...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION/ENTRAINMENT WILL EAT
UP MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING.
HOWEVER...12Z MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12/GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF
ALL STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL. THE 15Z RUN OF THE
SREF WAS ALSO STILL PEGGING HIGH END PROBABILITIES OF SEEING AT
LEAST AN INCH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IF MODELS MAINTAIN CURRENT STRENGTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE IT`S SNOWING...MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTION TO THE WEATHER GRIDS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A
HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP
THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA ON MONDAY LACKS
SIGNIFICANT LLM MOISTURE WITH ONLY MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

THE SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL
HAVE BETTER LLM ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS ARE IN A GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AFFECTING LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE. INCREASING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS WILL ENCOMPASS
ALL LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE MBG AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KUNR 310014
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
514 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IN THE PERIOD...WITH A STRONG NW
FLOW IMPULSE FORCING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY.
THIS FEATURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRONG JET STREAK WILL FORCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE AREA MAINLY SAT NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A SW CONUS UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE
WILL SKIRT THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HELPING TO PIVOT THE LL BAROCLINIC
ZONE NEAR SCENTRAL SD...SUPPORTING A SEPARATE AREA OF SNOW.
OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT...IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS NW SD AND THE NORTHERN BH FOOTHILLS.

MILD CONDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A
PASSING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA IS
FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO ND. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SSW ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
TONIGHT...STALLING OVER THE BLACK HILLS SAT. A POTENT IMPULSE NOW
OVER SOUTHERN BC WILL QUICKLY ADVECT SE INTO THE REGION
SAT...SUPPORTING INCREASING LSA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A 120 KNOT JET STREAK...WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION SPREADING OVER THE
FA. STRONG CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXPECTED ARCTIC
SURGE/STRONG LSA/AND ENHANCED LEFT EXIT FORCING WILL PRODUCE AMPLE
UVM...SUPPORTING SNOWS LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
WILL SPREAD SW ACROSS THE FA...WITH NW SD SEEING THE BEST
COLLOCATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS FOOTHILLS. THESE
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 3 POSSIBLE WHERE
FORCING PERSIST LONGEST. ADDITIONAL AND SEPARATE SNOWS LIKELY ACROSS
FAR EASTERN SCENTRAL SD WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SKIRTING SOUTHERN
PLAINS SYSTEM MOISTURE PLUME. COLD AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE
REGION WITH TONIGHT/S FIRST FRONT...STALLING OVER THE BH SAT. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE FA SAT WITH 40S EXPECTED
OVER NE WY TO UPPER 20S ACROSS FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE FA. MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS TRICKY AS SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE CWA AT TIMES. UNDER A COLDER
AIRMASS...TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. FOR
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE MUCH WARMER
TEMPS THAN PREVIOUSLY. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT THAT DIVES SOUTH TUESDAY...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SHOW WARMER AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TEMP
FORECASTS...COOLED TEMPS A BIT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
CURTAIL SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 511 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP/ADVECT INTO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL CREATE AN AREA OF -SN SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER FAR
NORTHWEST SD WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 310014
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
514 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IN THE PERIOD...WITH A STRONG NW
FLOW IMPULSE FORCING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY.
THIS FEATURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRONG JET STREAK WILL FORCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE AREA MAINLY SAT NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A SW CONUS UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE
WILL SKIRT THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HELPING TO PIVOT THE LL BAROCLINIC
ZONE NEAR SCENTRAL SD...SUPPORTING A SEPARATE AREA OF SNOW.
OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT...IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS NW SD AND THE NORTHERN BH FOOTHILLS.

MILD CONDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A
PASSING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA IS
FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO ND. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SSW ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
TONIGHT...STALLING OVER THE BLACK HILLS SAT. A POTENT IMPULSE NOW
OVER SOUTHERN BC WILL QUICKLY ADVECT SE INTO THE REGION
SAT...SUPPORTING INCREASING LSA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A 120 KNOT JET STREAK...WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION SPREADING OVER THE
FA. STRONG CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXPECTED ARCTIC
SURGE/STRONG LSA/AND ENHANCED LEFT EXIT FORCING WILL PRODUCE AMPLE
UVM...SUPPORTING SNOWS LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
WILL SPREAD SW ACROSS THE FA...WITH NW SD SEEING THE BEST
COLLOCATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS FOOTHILLS. THESE
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 3 POSSIBLE WHERE
FORCING PERSIST LONGEST. ADDITIONAL AND SEPARATE SNOWS LIKELY ACROSS
FAR EASTERN SCENTRAL SD WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SKIRTING SOUTHERN
PLAINS SYSTEM MOISTURE PLUME. COLD AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE
REGION WITH TONIGHT/S FIRST FRONT...STALLING OVER THE BH SAT. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE FA SAT WITH 40S EXPECTED
OVER NE WY TO UPPER 20S ACROSS FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE FA. MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS TRICKY AS SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE CWA AT TIMES. UNDER A COLDER
AIRMASS...TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. FOR
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE MUCH WARMER
TEMPS THAN PREVIOUSLY. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT THAT DIVES SOUTH TUESDAY...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SHOW WARMER AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TEMP
FORECASTS...COOLED TEMPS A BIT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
CURTAIL SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 511 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP/ADVECT INTO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL CREATE AN AREA OF -SN SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER FAR
NORTHWEST SD WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KFSD 302358
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
558 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BUT
HANG UP SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AS A SERIES OF WAVES
BREAK OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF WAVE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO WARM UP. MODELS SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST DEEPENING
STRATUS QUICKLY DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. WITH DEEPENING
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST FLOW...HAVE SQUASHED DIURNAL SPREAD ON
SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF JET STREAK ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OF THE US.  WITH WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SATURATION
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH TO LEAD TOWARDS SNOW
DEVELOPING.  HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THERE IS A SECOND WAVE APPROACHING IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET...BUT ITS EFFECTS MAINLY HOLD OFF TILL
AFTER 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ON SWINGING THROUGH A NICE SNOW MAKING SYSTEM. THE MODELS BEGAN TO
AGREE ON LAST NIGHTS RUNS AND THE 6Z AND NOW 12Z RUNS SUPPORT THE
INCREASE THREAT FOR SNOW. A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
MERGE NEAR THE AREA...WHICH SLOWS THINGS DOWN A BIT AND BRINGS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT
3Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER WILL WORK
WITH SOME DECENT FORCING AND MOISTURE TO ALLOW THE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY PASSES ON SUNDAY MORNING
THE THREAT FOR SNOWFALL SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY. WHILE IT
WILL BE A BIT WINDY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NOT PLANNING ON
A LOT OF BLOWING SNOW SINCE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOW ON THE GROUND
RIGHT NOW. MODEL QPF ALSO PRETTY AGREEABLE AVERAGING THREE TO FOUR
TENTHS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA...THEN DIMINISHING TO
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH NEAR 9V9 AND HON. THE NAM IS THE ONLY ONE
THAT BRINGS THESE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND IS
RUNNING ABOUT THREE TENTHS HIGHER THAN THE OTHER MODELS...SO WILL
MOSTLY IGNORE ITS OUTPUT. BECAUSE FREQUENTLY THE MODELS SEEM TO
OVERDUE QPF AMOUNTS JUST A BIT...WILL KEEP QPF TOTALS CLOSER TO A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. THIS PLACES TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF A YANKTON TO SIOUX FALLS TO WINDOM
LINE...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARDS SPENCER IOWA AND STORM LAKE.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ANOTHER LOBE OF
ENERGY EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS ENERGY
IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON BY THE MODELS. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN SO EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO
FRIDAY. THE COLDEST DAYS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
WITH SOME NEW SNOW LIKELY ON THE GROUND WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT THE WARMING AT THIS TIME. WILL SIDE TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE NIGHT. HOWEVER IFR TO MVFR STRATUS
CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
LOW STRATUS MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA. SO BY MID MORNING WOULD
EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO BE IFR TO MVFR. WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO THE AREA AFTER
18Z. THIS SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAKING IT TO AROUND INTERSTATE 90 BY 0Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 302358
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
558 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BUT
HANG UP SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AS A SERIES OF WAVES
BREAK OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF WAVE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO WARM UP. MODELS SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST DEEPENING
STRATUS QUICKLY DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. WITH DEEPENING
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST FLOW...HAVE SQUASHED DIURNAL SPREAD ON
SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF JET STREAK ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OF THE US.  WITH WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SATURATION
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH TO LEAD TOWARDS SNOW
DEVELOPING.  HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THERE IS A SECOND WAVE APPROACHING IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET...BUT ITS EFFECTS MAINLY HOLD OFF TILL
AFTER 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ON SWINGING THROUGH A NICE SNOW MAKING SYSTEM. THE MODELS BEGAN TO
AGREE ON LAST NIGHTS RUNS AND THE 6Z AND NOW 12Z RUNS SUPPORT THE
INCREASE THREAT FOR SNOW. A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
MERGE NEAR THE AREA...WHICH SLOWS THINGS DOWN A BIT AND BRINGS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT
3Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER WILL WORK
WITH SOME DECENT FORCING AND MOISTURE TO ALLOW THE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY PASSES ON SUNDAY MORNING
THE THREAT FOR SNOWFALL SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY. WHILE IT
WILL BE A BIT WINDY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NOT PLANNING ON
A LOT OF BLOWING SNOW SINCE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOW ON THE GROUND
RIGHT NOW. MODEL QPF ALSO PRETTY AGREEABLE AVERAGING THREE TO FOUR
TENTHS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA...THEN DIMINISHING TO
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH NEAR 9V9 AND HON. THE NAM IS THE ONLY ONE
THAT BRINGS THESE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND IS
RUNNING ABOUT THREE TENTHS HIGHER THAN THE OTHER MODELS...SO WILL
MOSTLY IGNORE ITS OUTPUT. BECAUSE FREQUENTLY THE MODELS SEEM TO
OVERDUE QPF AMOUNTS JUST A BIT...WILL KEEP QPF TOTALS CLOSER TO A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. THIS PLACES TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF A YANKTON TO SIOUX FALLS TO WINDOM
LINE...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARDS SPENCER IOWA AND STORM LAKE.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ANOTHER LOBE OF
ENERGY EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS ENERGY
IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON BY THE MODELS. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN SO EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO
FRIDAY. THE COLDEST DAYS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
WITH SOME NEW SNOW LIKELY ON THE GROUND WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT THE WARMING AT THIS TIME. WILL SIDE TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE NIGHT. HOWEVER IFR TO MVFR STRATUS
CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
LOW STRATUS MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA. SO BY MID MORNING WOULD
EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO BE IFR TO MVFR. WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO THE AREA AFTER
18Z. THIS SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAKING IT TO AROUND INTERSTATE 90 BY 0Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 302358
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
558 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BUT
HANG UP SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AS A SERIES OF WAVES
BREAK OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF WAVE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO WARM UP. MODELS SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST DEEPENING
STRATUS QUICKLY DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. WITH DEEPENING
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST FLOW...HAVE SQUASHED DIURNAL SPREAD ON
SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF JET STREAK ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OF THE US.  WITH WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SATURATION
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH TO LEAD TOWARDS SNOW
DEVELOPING.  HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THERE IS A SECOND WAVE APPROACHING IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET...BUT ITS EFFECTS MAINLY HOLD OFF TILL
AFTER 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ON SWINGING THROUGH A NICE SNOW MAKING SYSTEM. THE MODELS BEGAN TO
AGREE ON LAST NIGHTS RUNS AND THE 6Z AND NOW 12Z RUNS SUPPORT THE
INCREASE THREAT FOR SNOW. A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
MERGE NEAR THE AREA...WHICH SLOWS THINGS DOWN A BIT AND BRINGS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT
3Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER WILL WORK
WITH SOME DECENT FORCING AND MOISTURE TO ALLOW THE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY PASSES ON SUNDAY MORNING
THE THREAT FOR SNOWFALL SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY. WHILE IT
WILL BE A BIT WINDY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NOT PLANNING ON
A LOT OF BLOWING SNOW SINCE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOW ON THE GROUND
RIGHT NOW. MODEL QPF ALSO PRETTY AGREEABLE AVERAGING THREE TO FOUR
TENTHS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA...THEN DIMINISHING TO
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH NEAR 9V9 AND HON. THE NAM IS THE ONLY ONE
THAT BRINGS THESE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND IS
RUNNING ABOUT THREE TENTHS HIGHER THAN THE OTHER MODELS...SO WILL
MOSTLY IGNORE ITS OUTPUT. BECAUSE FREQUENTLY THE MODELS SEEM TO
OVERDUE QPF AMOUNTS JUST A BIT...WILL KEEP QPF TOTALS CLOSER TO A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. THIS PLACES TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF A YANKTON TO SIOUX FALLS TO WINDOM
LINE...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARDS SPENCER IOWA AND STORM LAKE.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ANOTHER LOBE OF
ENERGY EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS ENERGY
IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON BY THE MODELS. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN SO EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO
FRIDAY. THE COLDEST DAYS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
WITH SOME NEW SNOW LIKELY ON THE GROUND WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT THE WARMING AT THIS TIME. WILL SIDE TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE NIGHT. HOWEVER IFR TO MVFR STRATUS
CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
LOW STRATUS MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA. SO BY MID MORNING WOULD
EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO BE IFR TO MVFR. WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO THE AREA AFTER
18Z. THIS SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAKING IT TO AROUND INTERSTATE 90 BY 0Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 302358
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
558 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BUT
HANG UP SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AS A SERIES OF WAVES
BREAK OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF WAVE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO WARM UP. MODELS SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST DEEPENING
STRATUS QUICKLY DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. WITH DEEPENING
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST FLOW...HAVE SQUASHED DIURNAL SPREAD ON
SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF JET STREAK ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OF THE US.  WITH WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SATURATION
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH TO LEAD TOWARDS SNOW
DEVELOPING.  HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THERE IS A SECOND WAVE APPROACHING IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET...BUT ITS EFFECTS MAINLY HOLD OFF TILL
AFTER 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ON SWINGING THROUGH A NICE SNOW MAKING SYSTEM. THE MODELS BEGAN TO
AGREE ON LAST NIGHTS RUNS AND THE 6Z AND NOW 12Z RUNS SUPPORT THE
INCREASE THREAT FOR SNOW. A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
MERGE NEAR THE AREA...WHICH SLOWS THINGS DOWN A BIT AND BRINGS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT
3Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER WILL WORK
WITH SOME DECENT FORCING AND MOISTURE TO ALLOW THE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY PASSES ON SUNDAY MORNING
THE THREAT FOR SNOWFALL SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY. WHILE IT
WILL BE A BIT WINDY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NOT PLANNING ON
A LOT OF BLOWING SNOW SINCE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOW ON THE GROUND
RIGHT NOW. MODEL QPF ALSO PRETTY AGREEABLE AVERAGING THREE TO FOUR
TENTHS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA...THEN DIMINISHING TO
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH NEAR 9V9 AND HON. THE NAM IS THE ONLY ONE
THAT BRINGS THESE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND IS
RUNNING ABOUT THREE TENTHS HIGHER THAN THE OTHER MODELS...SO WILL
MOSTLY IGNORE ITS OUTPUT. BECAUSE FREQUENTLY THE MODELS SEEM TO
OVERDUE QPF AMOUNTS JUST A BIT...WILL KEEP QPF TOTALS CLOSER TO A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. THIS PLACES TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF A YANKTON TO SIOUX FALLS TO WINDOM
LINE...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARDS SPENCER IOWA AND STORM LAKE.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ANOTHER LOBE OF
ENERGY EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS ENERGY
IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON BY THE MODELS. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN SO EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO
FRIDAY. THE COLDEST DAYS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
WITH SOME NEW SNOW LIKELY ON THE GROUND WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT THE WARMING AT THIS TIME. WILL SIDE TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE NIGHT. HOWEVER IFR TO MVFR STRATUS
CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
LOW STRATUS MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA. SO BY MID MORNING WOULD
EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO BE IFR TO MVFR. WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO THE AREA AFTER
18Z. THIS SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAKING IT TO AROUND INTERSTATE 90 BY 0Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KABR 302349 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
549 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SNOW ACCUMULATION...PLACEMENT AND TIMING
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MID-MORNING.

CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES AND THE LAST PUSH OF WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR A GOOD WEEK HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 30S
AND 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH SOME 50S WORKING INTO THE
FAR WESTERN FORECAST ZONES. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT POISED IN
NORTH DAKOTA TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

TEMPS/WINDS...ARCTIC COLD AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT AND DOES NOT STOP UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS/SNOW...CLOSER TO 12Z SATURDAY...SHOULD START TO SEE A LAYER
OF STRATUS WORKING DOWN INTO THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE /OVER B.C. CANADA/ APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE WRINKLE...ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE ENERGY /OVER
THE SWRN U.S./ IS ALSO GOING TO BE LIFTING UP ONTO THE PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AND MODELS SEEM TO THINK THAT
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO ONE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEFORE TRACKING OFF TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AND THAT COULD MEAN
THAT CURRENT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FORECAST SNOWFALL ENDS UP BEING
OFF A BIT. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...STILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
SHOWING UP BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS NC SODAK AND SPREADING
SEWD OVERNIGHT. DID EXTEND POPS/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE FIRST PART
OF SUNDAY PER THE SLIGHT SLOW DOWN IN QPF DEPARTURE NOTED IN THE
12Z SUITE OF MODELS. STILL DEALING WITH GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS OF QPF IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT GIVEN HOW COLD IT WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SLR`S SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG AND UP TO 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM EUREKA TO HAYTI. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT IN
THIS INSTANCE...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION/ENTRAINMENT WILL EAT
UP MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING.
HOWEVER...12Z MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12/GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF
ALL STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL. THE 15Z RUN OF THE
SREF WAS ALSO STILL PEGGING HIGH END PROBABILITIES OF SEEING AT
LEAST AN INCH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IF MODELS MAINTAIN CURRENT STRENGTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE IT`S SNOWING...MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTION TO THE WEATHER GRIDS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A
HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP
THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA ON MONDAY LACKS
SIGNIFICANT LLM MOISTURE WITH ONLY MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

THE SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL
HAVE BETTER LLM ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS ARE IN A GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AFFECTING LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE. INCREASING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS WILL ENCOMPASS
ALL LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE MBG AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 302349 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
549 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SNOW ACCUMULATION...PLACEMENT AND TIMING
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MID-MORNING.

CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES AND THE LAST PUSH OF WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR A GOOD WEEK HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 30S
AND 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH SOME 50S WORKING INTO THE
FAR WESTERN FORECAST ZONES. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT POISED IN
NORTH DAKOTA TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

TEMPS/WINDS...ARCTIC COLD AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT AND DOES NOT STOP UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS/SNOW...CLOSER TO 12Z SATURDAY...SHOULD START TO SEE A LAYER
OF STRATUS WORKING DOWN INTO THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE /OVER B.C. CANADA/ APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE WRINKLE...ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE ENERGY /OVER
THE SWRN U.S./ IS ALSO GOING TO BE LIFTING UP ONTO THE PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AND MODELS SEEM TO THINK THAT
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO ONE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEFORE TRACKING OFF TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AND THAT COULD MEAN
THAT CURRENT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FORECAST SNOWFALL ENDS UP BEING
OFF A BIT. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...STILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
SHOWING UP BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS NC SODAK AND SPREADING
SEWD OVERNIGHT. DID EXTEND POPS/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE FIRST PART
OF SUNDAY PER THE SLIGHT SLOW DOWN IN QPF DEPARTURE NOTED IN THE
12Z SUITE OF MODELS. STILL DEALING WITH GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS OF QPF IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT GIVEN HOW COLD IT WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SLR`S SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG AND UP TO 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM EUREKA TO HAYTI. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT IN
THIS INSTANCE...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION/ENTRAINMENT WILL EAT
UP MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING.
HOWEVER...12Z MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12/GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF
ALL STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL. THE 15Z RUN OF THE
SREF WAS ALSO STILL PEGGING HIGH END PROBABILITIES OF SEEING AT
LEAST AN INCH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IF MODELS MAINTAIN CURRENT STRENGTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE IT`S SNOWING...MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTION TO THE WEATHER GRIDS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A
HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP
THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA ON MONDAY LACKS
SIGNIFICANT LLM MOISTURE WITH ONLY MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

THE SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL
HAVE BETTER LLM ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS ARE IN A GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AFFECTING LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE. INCREASING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS WILL ENCOMPASS
ALL LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE MBG AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 302349 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
549 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SNOW ACCUMULATION...PLACEMENT AND TIMING
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MID-MORNING.

CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES AND THE LAST PUSH OF WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR A GOOD WEEK HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 30S
AND 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH SOME 50S WORKING INTO THE
FAR WESTERN FORECAST ZONES. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT POISED IN
NORTH DAKOTA TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

TEMPS/WINDS...ARCTIC COLD AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT AND DOES NOT STOP UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS/SNOW...CLOSER TO 12Z SATURDAY...SHOULD START TO SEE A LAYER
OF STRATUS WORKING DOWN INTO THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE /OVER B.C. CANADA/ APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE WRINKLE...ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE ENERGY /OVER
THE SWRN U.S./ IS ALSO GOING TO BE LIFTING UP ONTO THE PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AND MODELS SEEM TO THINK THAT
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO ONE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEFORE TRACKING OFF TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AND THAT COULD MEAN
THAT CURRENT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FORECAST SNOWFALL ENDS UP BEING
OFF A BIT. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...STILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
SHOWING UP BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS NC SODAK AND SPREADING
SEWD OVERNIGHT. DID EXTEND POPS/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE FIRST PART
OF SUNDAY PER THE SLIGHT SLOW DOWN IN QPF DEPARTURE NOTED IN THE
12Z SUITE OF MODELS. STILL DEALING WITH GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS OF QPF IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT GIVEN HOW COLD IT WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SLR`S SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG AND UP TO 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM EUREKA TO HAYTI. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT IN
THIS INSTANCE...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION/ENTRAINMENT WILL EAT
UP MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING.
HOWEVER...12Z MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12/GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF
ALL STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL. THE 15Z RUN OF THE
SREF WAS ALSO STILL PEGGING HIGH END PROBABILITIES OF SEEING AT
LEAST AN INCH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IF MODELS MAINTAIN CURRENT STRENGTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE IT`S SNOWING...MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTION TO THE WEATHER GRIDS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A
HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP
THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA ON MONDAY LACKS
SIGNIFICANT LLM MOISTURE WITH ONLY MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

THE SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL
HAVE BETTER LLM ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS ARE IN A GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AFFECTING LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE. INCREASING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS WILL ENCOMPASS
ALL LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE MBG AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 302349 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
549 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SNOW ACCUMULATION...PLACEMENT AND TIMING
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MID-MORNING.

CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES AND THE LAST PUSH OF WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR A GOOD WEEK HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 30S
AND 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH SOME 50S WORKING INTO THE
FAR WESTERN FORECAST ZONES. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT POISED IN
NORTH DAKOTA TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

TEMPS/WINDS...ARCTIC COLD AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT AND DOES NOT STOP UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS/SNOW...CLOSER TO 12Z SATURDAY...SHOULD START TO SEE A LAYER
OF STRATUS WORKING DOWN INTO THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE /OVER B.C. CANADA/ APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE WRINKLE...ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE ENERGY /OVER
THE SWRN U.S./ IS ALSO GOING TO BE LIFTING UP ONTO THE PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AND MODELS SEEM TO THINK THAT
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO ONE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEFORE TRACKING OFF TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AND THAT COULD MEAN
THAT CURRENT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FORECAST SNOWFALL ENDS UP BEING
OFF A BIT. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...STILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
SHOWING UP BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS NC SODAK AND SPREADING
SEWD OVERNIGHT. DID EXTEND POPS/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE FIRST PART
OF SUNDAY PER THE SLIGHT SLOW DOWN IN QPF DEPARTURE NOTED IN THE
12Z SUITE OF MODELS. STILL DEALING WITH GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS OF QPF IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT GIVEN HOW COLD IT WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SLR`S SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG AND UP TO 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM EUREKA TO HAYTI. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT IN
THIS INSTANCE...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION/ENTRAINMENT WILL EAT
UP MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING.
HOWEVER...12Z MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12/GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF
ALL STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL. THE 15Z RUN OF THE
SREF WAS ALSO STILL PEGGING HIGH END PROBABILITIES OF SEEING AT
LEAST AN INCH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IF MODELS MAINTAIN CURRENT STRENGTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE IT`S SNOWING...MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTION TO THE WEATHER GRIDS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A
HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP
THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA ON MONDAY LACKS
SIGNIFICANT LLM MOISTURE WITH ONLY MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

THE SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL
HAVE BETTER LLM ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS ARE IN A GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AFFECTING LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE. INCREASING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS WILL ENCOMPASS
ALL LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE MBG AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 302128
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
328 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SNOW ACCUMULATION...PLACEMENT AND TIMING
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MID-MORNING.

CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES AND THE LAST PUSH OF WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR A GOOD WEEK HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 30S
AND 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH SOME 50S WORKING INTO THE
FAR WESTERN FORECAST ZONES. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT POISED IN
NORTH DAKOTA TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

TEMPS/WINDS...ARCTIC COLD AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT AND DOES NOT STOP UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS/SNOW...CLOSER TO 12Z SATURDAY...SHOULD START TO SEE A LAYER
OF STRATUS WORKING DOWN INTO THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE /OVER B.C. CANADA/ APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE WRINKLE...ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE ENERGY /OVER
THE SWRN U.S./ IS ALSO GOING TO BE LIFTING UP ONTO THE PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AND MODELS SEEM TO THINK THAT
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO ONE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEFORE TRACKING OFF TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AND THAT COULD MEAN
THAT CURRENT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FORECAST SNOWFALL ENDS UP BEING
OFF A BIT. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...STILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
SHOWING UP BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS NC SODAK AND SPREADING
SEWD OVERNIGHT. DID EXTEND POPS/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE FIRST PART
OF SUNDAY PER THE SLIGHT SLOW DOWN IN QPF DEPARTURE NOTED IN THE
12Z SUITE OF MODELS. STILL DEALING WITH GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS OF QPF IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT GIVEN HOW COLD IT WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SLR`S SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG AND UP TO 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM EUREKA TO HAYTI. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT IN
THIS INSTANCE...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION/ENTRAINMENT WILL EAT
UP MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING.
HOWEVER...12Z MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12/GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF
ALL STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL. THE 15Z RUN OF THE
SREF WAS ALSO STILL PEGGING HIGH END PROBABILITIES OF SEEING AT
LEAST AN INCH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IF MODELS MAINTAIN CURRENT STRENGTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE IT`S SNOWING...MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTION TO THE WEATHER GRIDS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A
HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP
THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA ON MONDAY LACKS
SIGNIFICANT LLM MOISTURE WITH ONLY MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

THE SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL
HAVE BETTER LLM ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS ARE IN A GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AFFECTING LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE. INCREASING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT THE
WINDS FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...TO THE SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. AN MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL ALSO SINK
SOUTHWARD AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS BY 10Z SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. BY
12Z...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO ALL AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OR JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 302128
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
328 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SNOW ACCUMULATION...PLACEMENT AND TIMING
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MID-MORNING.

CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES AND THE LAST PUSH OF WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR A GOOD WEEK HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 30S
AND 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH SOME 50S WORKING INTO THE
FAR WESTERN FORECAST ZONES. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT POISED IN
NORTH DAKOTA TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

TEMPS/WINDS...ARCTIC COLD AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT AND DOES NOT STOP UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS/SNOW...CLOSER TO 12Z SATURDAY...SHOULD START TO SEE A LAYER
OF STRATUS WORKING DOWN INTO THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE /OVER B.C. CANADA/ APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE WRINKLE...ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE ENERGY /OVER
THE SWRN U.S./ IS ALSO GOING TO BE LIFTING UP ONTO THE PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AND MODELS SEEM TO THINK THAT
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO ONE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEFORE TRACKING OFF TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AND THAT COULD MEAN
THAT CURRENT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FORECAST SNOWFALL ENDS UP BEING
OFF A BIT. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...STILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
SHOWING UP BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS NC SODAK AND SPREADING
SEWD OVERNIGHT. DID EXTEND POPS/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE FIRST PART
OF SUNDAY PER THE SLIGHT SLOW DOWN IN QPF DEPARTURE NOTED IN THE
12Z SUITE OF MODELS. STILL DEALING WITH GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS OF QPF IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT GIVEN HOW COLD IT WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SLR`S SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG AND UP TO 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM EUREKA TO HAYTI. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT IN
THIS INSTANCE...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION/ENTRAINMENT WILL EAT
UP MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING.
HOWEVER...12Z MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12/GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF
ALL STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL. THE 15Z RUN OF THE
SREF WAS ALSO STILL PEGGING HIGH END PROBABILITIES OF SEEING AT
LEAST AN INCH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IF MODELS MAINTAIN CURRENT STRENGTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE IT`S SNOWING...MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTION TO THE WEATHER GRIDS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A
HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP
THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA ON MONDAY LACKS
SIGNIFICANT LLM MOISTURE WITH ONLY MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

THE SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL
HAVE BETTER LLM ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS ARE IN A GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AFFECTING LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE. INCREASING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT THE
WINDS FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...TO THE SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. AN MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL ALSO SINK
SOUTHWARD AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS BY 10Z SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. BY
12Z...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO ALL AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OR JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 302128
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
328 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SNOW ACCUMULATION...PLACEMENT AND TIMING
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MID-MORNING.

CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES AND THE LAST PUSH OF WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR A GOOD WEEK HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 30S
AND 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH SOME 50S WORKING INTO THE
FAR WESTERN FORECAST ZONES. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT POISED IN
NORTH DAKOTA TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

TEMPS/WINDS...ARCTIC COLD AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT AND DOES NOT STOP UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS/SNOW...CLOSER TO 12Z SATURDAY...SHOULD START TO SEE A LAYER
OF STRATUS WORKING DOWN INTO THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE /OVER B.C. CANADA/ APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE WRINKLE...ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE ENERGY /OVER
THE SWRN U.S./ IS ALSO GOING TO BE LIFTING UP ONTO THE PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AND MODELS SEEM TO THINK THAT
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO ONE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEFORE TRACKING OFF TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AND THAT COULD MEAN
THAT CURRENT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FORECAST SNOWFALL ENDS UP BEING
OFF A BIT. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...STILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
SHOWING UP BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS NC SODAK AND SPREADING
SEWD OVERNIGHT. DID EXTEND POPS/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE FIRST PART
OF SUNDAY PER THE SLIGHT SLOW DOWN IN QPF DEPARTURE NOTED IN THE
12Z SUITE OF MODELS. STILL DEALING WITH GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS OF QPF IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT GIVEN HOW COLD IT WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SLR`S SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG AND UP TO 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM EUREKA TO HAYTI. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT IN
THIS INSTANCE...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION/ENTRAINMENT WILL EAT
UP MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING.
HOWEVER...12Z MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12/GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF
ALL STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL. THE 15Z RUN OF THE
SREF WAS ALSO STILL PEGGING HIGH END PROBABILITIES OF SEEING AT
LEAST AN INCH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IF MODELS MAINTAIN CURRENT STRENGTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE IT`S SNOWING...MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTION TO THE WEATHER GRIDS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A
HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP
THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA ON MONDAY LACKS
SIGNIFICANT LLM MOISTURE WITH ONLY MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

THE SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL
HAVE BETTER LLM ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS ARE IN A GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AFFECTING LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE. INCREASING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT THE
WINDS FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...TO THE SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. AN MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL ALSO SINK
SOUTHWARD AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS BY 10Z SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. BY
12Z...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO ALL AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OR JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 302128
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
328 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SNOW ACCUMULATION...PLACEMENT AND TIMING
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MID-MORNING.

CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES AND THE LAST PUSH OF WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR A GOOD WEEK HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 30S
AND 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH SOME 50S WORKING INTO THE
FAR WESTERN FORECAST ZONES. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT POISED IN
NORTH DAKOTA TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

TEMPS/WINDS...ARCTIC COLD AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT AND DOES NOT STOP UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS/SNOW...CLOSER TO 12Z SATURDAY...SHOULD START TO SEE A LAYER
OF STRATUS WORKING DOWN INTO THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE /OVER B.C. CANADA/ APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE WRINKLE...ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE ENERGY /OVER
THE SWRN U.S./ IS ALSO GOING TO BE LIFTING UP ONTO THE PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AND MODELS SEEM TO THINK THAT
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO ONE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEFORE TRACKING OFF TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AND THAT COULD MEAN
THAT CURRENT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FORECAST SNOWFALL ENDS UP BEING
OFF A BIT. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...STILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
SHOWING UP BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS NC SODAK AND SPREADING
SEWD OVERNIGHT. DID EXTEND POPS/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE FIRST PART
OF SUNDAY PER THE SLIGHT SLOW DOWN IN QPF DEPARTURE NOTED IN THE
12Z SUITE OF MODELS. STILL DEALING WITH GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS OF QPF IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT GIVEN HOW COLD IT WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SLR`S SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG AND UP TO 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM EUREKA TO HAYTI. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT IN
THIS INSTANCE...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION/ENTRAINMENT WILL EAT
UP MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING.
HOWEVER...12Z MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12/GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF
ALL STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL. THE 15Z RUN OF THE
SREF WAS ALSO STILL PEGGING HIGH END PROBABILITIES OF SEEING AT
LEAST AN INCH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IF MODELS MAINTAIN CURRENT STRENGTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE IT`S SNOWING...MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTION TO THE WEATHER GRIDS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A
HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP
THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA ON MONDAY LACKS
SIGNIFICANT LLM MOISTURE WITH ONLY MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

THE SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL
HAVE BETTER LLM ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS ARE IN A GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AFFECTING LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE. INCREASING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT THE
WINDS FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...TO THE SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. AN MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL ALSO SINK
SOUTHWARD AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS BY 10Z SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. BY
12Z...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO ALL AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OR JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KUNR 302052
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
152 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IN THE PERIOD...WITH A
STRONG NW FLOW IMPULSE FORCING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRONG JET STREAK WILL
FORCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE AREA MAINLY SAT NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A SW CONUS UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SKIRT THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HELPING TO PIVOT THE LL BAROCLINIC ZONE
NEAR SCENTRAL SD...SUPPORTING A SEPARATE AREA OF SNOW.
OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT...IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS NW SD AND THE NORTHERN BH FOOTHILLS.

MILD CONDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A
PASSING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA IS
FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO ND. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SSW ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
TONIGHT...STALLING OVER THE BLACK HILLS SAT. A POTENT IMPULSE NOW
OVER SOUTHERN BC WILL QUICKLY ADVECT SE INTO THE REGION
SAT...SUPPORTING INCREASING LSA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A 120 KNOT JET STREAK...WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION SPREADING OVER THE
FA. STRONG CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXPECTED ARCTIC
SURGE/STRONG LSA/AND ENHANCED LEFT EXIT FORCING WILL PRODUCE AMPLE
UVM...SUPPORTING SNOWS LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
WILL SPREAD SW ACROSS THE FA...WITH NW SD SEEING THE BEST
COLLOCATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS FOOTHILLS. THESE
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 3 POSSIBLE WHERE
FORCING PERSIST LONGEST. ADDITIONAL AND SEPARATE SNOWS LIKELY ACROSS
FAR EASTERN SCENTRAL SD WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SKIRTING SOUTHERN
PLAINS SYSTEM MOISTURE PLUME. COLD AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE
REGION WITH TONIGHT/S FIRST FRONT...STALLING OVER THE BH SAT. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE FA SAT WITH 40S EXPECTED
OVER NE WY TO UPPER 20S ACROSS FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE FA. MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW...BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS TRICKY AS SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE CWA AT TIMES. UNDER A COLDER
AIRMASS...TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. FOR
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE MUCH WARMER
TEMPS THAN PREVIOUSLY. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT THAT DIVES SOUTH TUESDAY...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SHOW WARMER AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TEMP
FORECASTS...COOLED TEMPS A BIT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
CURTAIL SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 302052
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
152 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IN THE PERIOD...WITH A
STRONG NW FLOW IMPULSE FORCING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRONG JET STREAK WILL
FORCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE AREA MAINLY SAT NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A SW CONUS UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SKIRT THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HELPING TO PIVOT THE LL BAROCLINIC ZONE
NEAR SCENTRAL SD...SUPPORTING A SEPARATE AREA OF SNOW.
OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT...IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS NW SD AND THE NORTHERN BH FOOTHILLS.

MILD CONDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A
PASSING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA IS
FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO ND. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SSW ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
TONIGHT...STALLING OVER THE BLACK HILLS SAT. A POTENT IMPULSE NOW
OVER SOUTHERN BC WILL QUICKLY ADVECT SE INTO THE REGION
SAT...SUPPORTING INCREASING LSA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A 120 KNOT JET STREAK...WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION SPREADING OVER THE
FA. STRONG CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXPECTED ARCTIC
SURGE/STRONG LSA/AND ENHANCED LEFT EXIT FORCING WILL PRODUCE AMPLE
UVM...SUPPORTING SNOWS LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
WILL SPREAD SW ACROSS THE FA...WITH NW SD SEEING THE BEST
COLLOCATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS FOOTHILLS. THESE
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 3 POSSIBLE WHERE
FORCING PERSIST LONGEST. ADDITIONAL AND SEPARATE SNOWS LIKELY ACROSS
FAR EASTERN SCENTRAL SD WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SKIRTING SOUTHERN
PLAINS SYSTEM MOISTURE PLUME. COLD AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE
REGION WITH TONIGHT/S FIRST FRONT...STALLING OVER THE BH SAT. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE FA SAT WITH 40S EXPECTED
OVER NE WY TO UPPER 20S ACROSS FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE FA. MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW...BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS TRICKY AS SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE CWA AT TIMES. UNDER A COLDER
AIRMASS...TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. FOR
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE MUCH WARMER
TEMPS THAN PREVIOUSLY. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT THAT DIVES SOUTH TUESDAY...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SHOW WARMER AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TEMP
FORECASTS...COOLED TEMPS A BIT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
CURTAIL SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE






000
FXUS63 KFSD 302046
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BUT
HANG UP SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AS A SERIES OF WAVES
BREAK OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF WAVE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO WARM UP. MODELS SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST DEEPENING
STRATUS QUICKLY DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. WITH DEEPENING
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST FLOW...HAVE SQUASHED DIURNAL SPREAD ON
SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF JET STREAK ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OF THE US.  WITH WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SATURATION
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH TO LEAD TOWARDS SNOW
DEVELOPING.  HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THERE IS A SECOND WAVE APPROACHING IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET...BUT ITS EFFECTS MAINLY HOLD OFF TILL
AFTER 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ON SWINGING THROUGH A NICE SNOW MAKING SYSTEM. THE MODELS BEGAN TO
AGREE ON LAST NIGHTS RUNS AND THE 6Z AND NOW 12Z RUNS SUPPORT THE
INCREASE THREAT FOR SNOW. A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
MERGE NEAR THE AREA...WHICH SLOWS THINGS DOWN A BIT AND BRINGS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT
3Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER WILL WORK
WITH SOME DECENT FORCING AND MOISTURE TO ALLOW THE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY PASSES ON SUNDAY MORNING
THE THREAT FOR SNOWFALL SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY. WHILE IT
WILL BE A BIT WINDY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NOT PLANNING ON
A LOT OF BLOWING SNOW SINCE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOW ON THE GROUND
RIGHT NOW. MODEL QPF ALSO PRETTY AGREEABLE AVERAGING THREE TO FOUR
TENTHS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA...THEN DIMINISHING TO
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH NEAR 9V9 AND HON. THE NAM IS THE ONLY ONE
THAT BRINGS THESE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND IS
RUNNING ABOUT THREE TENTHS HIGHER THAN THE OTHER MODELS...SO WILL
MOSTLY IGNORE ITS OUTPUT. BECAUSE FREQUENTLY THE MODELS SEEM TO
OVERDUE QPF AMOUNTS JUST A BIT...WILL KEEP QPF TOTALS CLOSER TO A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. THIS PLACES TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF A YANKTON TO SIOUX FALLS TO WINDOM
LINE...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARDS SPENCER IOWA AND STORM LAKE.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ANOTHER LOBE OF
ENERGY EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS ENERGY
IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON BY THE MODELS. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN SO EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO
FRIDAY. THE COLDEST DAYS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
WITH SOME NEW SNOW LIKELY ON THE GROUND WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT THE WARMING AT THIS TIME. WILL SIDE TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
IFR STRATUS SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE AREA ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRATUS MAY TRY
TO EXPAND ON THE WESTERN EDGE DUE TO MIXING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT THERE ON HOW WIDESPREAD IT WOULD BE. FOR NOW...CARRIED FEW-
SCATTERED IN BOTH KSUX AND KFSD TAF. FOR TONIGHT...NORTHEAST FLOW
INCREASES AFTER 06Z AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAIRLY DENSE
STRATUS DEVELOPING. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT IT...BUT IS NOT AS LOW
AS SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST. FOR NOW...SIDED WITH LOW MVFR...BUT
COULD BE IFR SATURDAY MORNING AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 302046
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BUT
HANG UP SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AS A SERIES OF WAVES
BREAK OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF WAVE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO WARM UP. MODELS SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST DEEPENING
STRATUS QUICKLY DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. WITH DEEPENING
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST FLOW...HAVE SQUASHED DIURNAL SPREAD ON
SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF JET STREAK ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OF THE US.  WITH WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SATURATION
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH TO LEAD TOWARDS SNOW
DEVELOPING.  HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THERE IS A SECOND WAVE APPROACHING IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET...BUT ITS EFFECTS MAINLY HOLD OFF TILL
AFTER 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ON SWINGING THROUGH A NICE SNOW MAKING SYSTEM. THE MODELS BEGAN TO
AGREE ON LAST NIGHTS RUNS AND THE 6Z AND NOW 12Z RUNS SUPPORT THE
INCREASE THREAT FOR SNOW. A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
MERGE NEAR THE AREA...WHICH SLOWS THINGS DOWN A BIT AND BRINGS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT
3Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER WILL WORK
WITH SOME DECENT FORCING AND MOISTURE TO ALLOW THE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY PASSES ON SUNDAY MORNING
THE THREAT FOR SNOWFALL SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY. WHILE IT
WILL BE A BIT WINDY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NOT PLANNING ON
A LOT OF BLOWING SNOW SINCE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOW ON THE GROUND
RIGHT NOW. MODEL QPF ALSO PRETTY AGREEABLE AVERAGING THREE TO FOUR
TENTHS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA...THEN DIMINISHING TO
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH NEAR 9V9 AND HON. THE NAM IS THE ONLY ONE
THAT BRINGS THESE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND IS
RUNNING ABOUT THREE TENTHS HIGHER THAN THE OTHER MODELS...SO WILL
MOSTLY IGNORE ITS OUTPUT. BECAUSE FREQUENTLY THE MODELS SEEM TO
OVERDUE QPF AMOUNTS JUST A BIT...WILL KEEP QPF TOTALS CLOSER TO A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. THIS PLACES TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF A YANKTON TO SIOUX FALLS TO WINDOM
LINE...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARDS SPENCER IOWA AND STORM LAKE.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ANOTHER LOBE OF
ENERGY EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS ENERGY
IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON BY THE MODELS. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN SO EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO
FRIDAY. THE COLDEST DAYS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
WITH SOME NEW SNOW LIKELY ON THE GROUND WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT THE WARMING AT THIS TIME. WILL SIDE TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
IFR STRATUS SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE AREA ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRATUS MAY TRY
TO EXPAND ON THE WESTERN EDGE DUE TO MIXING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT THERE ON HOW WIDESPREAD IT WOULD BE. FOR NOW...CARRIED FEW-
SCATTERED IN BOTH KSUX AND KFSD TAF. FOR TONIGHT...NORTHEAST FLOW
INCREASES AFTER 06Z AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAIRLY DENSE
STRATUS DEVELOPING. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT IT...BUT IS NOT AS LOW
AS SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST. FOR NOW...SIDED WITH LOW MVFR...BUT
COULD BE IFR SATURDAY MORNING AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 301750
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1150 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE JANUARY TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WILL SLIP TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE INTO MIDDAY AROUND 10
TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE RESIDUAL BAND OF
STRATUS ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH MID
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MAY LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE
DAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN
OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES TO LOWER 50S IN THE LOWER BRULE AREA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGH
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS A BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO THE AREA. BREEZY WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING...BUT THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOWS RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LOW LEVEL COOLING WILL START SLOWLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT STEADILY
INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THE COOLING WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LEVELING OFF AROUND NOON BEFORE DROPPING SLOWLY.
CLOUDS WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING...FIRST FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN OVERALL AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE COLDER AIR.

SHORT WAVE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERLY WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MAKES THE SNOWFALL OUTLOOK
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED. THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE BEST SNOWFALL
WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT 1
TO 3 INCHES SHOULD STILL ACCUMULATE OVER PART OF NORTHWEST IOWA. THE
BIGGER QUESTION IS WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY SYSTEM AND THE INTERACTION
OF THE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT. BELIEVE THE
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL OVER OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA MAY BE UNDERDONE
FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP TOTAL
AMOUNTS AT AN INCH OR LESS NORTH OF THE SUX TO SLB AND SOUTH CORNER.
THE PROBLEM WITH GOING 1 TO 3 IS IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD BE OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA UP TOWARD MML
AND MWM IN SOUTHWEST MN...OR FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER AS
A RESULT OF THE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACTING. THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND
NORTHWEST IA BEING ON THE EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...IS ALSO WHY
POPS WILL NOT YET BE REAL HIGH.

AS WHATEVER SNOW THERE IS FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT AND DECREASES
SUNDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING AND WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT RAPIDLY MOVING WAVE IN THE STRONG
WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEVELOPING WARM
ADVECTION TO BRING SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATER MONDAY.

ANOTHER RAPIDLY MOVING AND STRONGER WAVE WILL APPROACH TUESDAY...
REPLACE MODEST WARMING WITH ANOTHER COOLDOWN BEHIND IT...AND BRING
ANOTHER SNOW THREAT. THERE IS A TIMING PROBLEM WITH THE GFS AND EC
BOTH NOW SLOWING THE SYSTEM TO A PEAK SNOW PRODUCING TIME OF TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE CANADIAN IS FASTER AND MATCHES THE CURRENT FORECAST AND
EXTENDED GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED FOR NOW WITH A TUESDAY
SNOW THREAT ENDING BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MODEST SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR...LIKE THE WEEKEND SURGE NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAD EARLY THIS
MONTH...WILL SPREAD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY
WARMING JUST BARELY GETTING GOING BY LATE THURSDAY...THEN PICKING UP
STEAM AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
IFR STRATUS SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE AREA ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRATUS MAY TRY
TO EXPAND ON THE WESTERN EDGE DUE TO MIXING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT THERE ON HOW WIDESPREAD IT WOULD BE. FOR NOW...CARRIED FEW-
SCATTERED IN BOTH KSUX AND KFSD TAF. FOR TONIGHT...NORTHEAST FLOW
INCREASES AFTER 06Z AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAIRLY DENSE
STRATUS DEVELOPING. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT IT...BUT IS NOT AS LOW
AS SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST. FOR NOW...SIDED WITH LOW MVFR...BUT
COULD BE IFR SATURDAY MORNING AT MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 301750
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1150 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE JANUARY TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WILL SLIP TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE INTO MIDDAY AROUND 10
TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE RESIDUAL BAND OF
STRATUS ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH MID
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MAY LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE
DAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN
OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES TO LOWER 50S IN THE LOWER BRULE AREA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGH
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS A BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO THE AREA. BREEZY WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING...BUT THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOWS RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LOW LEVEL COOLING WILL START SLOWLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT STEADILY
INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THE COOLING WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LEVELING OFF AROUND NOON BEFORE DROPPING SLOWLY.
CLOUDS WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING...FIRST FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN OVERALL AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE COLDER AIR.

SHORT WAVE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERLY WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MAKES THE SNOWFALL OUTLOOK
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED. THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE BEST SNOWFALL
WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT 1
TO 3 INCHES SHOULD STILL ACCUMULATE OVER PART OF NORTHWEST IOWA. THE
BIGGER QUESTION IS WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY SYSTEM AND THE INTERACTION
OF THE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT. BELIEVE THE
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL OVER OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA MAY BE UNDERDONE
FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP TOTAL
AMOUNTS AT AN INCH OR LESS NORTH OF THE SUX TO SLB AND SOUTH CORNER.
THE PROBLEM WITH GOING 1 TO 3 IS IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD BE OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA UP TOWARD MML
AND MWM IN SOUTHWEST MN...OR FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER AS
A RESULT OF THE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACTING. THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND
NORTHWEST IA BEING ON THE EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...IS ALSO WHY
POPS WILL NOT YET BE REAL HIGH.

AS WHATEVER SNOW THERE IS FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT AND DECREASES
SUNDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING AND WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT RAPIDLY MOVING WAVE IN THE STRONG
WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEVELOPING WARM
ADVECTION TO BRING SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATER MONDAY.

ANOTHER RAPIDLY MOVING AND STRONGER WAVE WILL APPROACH TUESDAY...
REPLACE MODEST WARMING WITH ANOTHER COOLDOWN BEHIND IT...AND BRING
ANOTHER SNOW THREAT. THERE IS A TIMING PROBLEM WITH THE GFS AND EC
BOTH NOW SLOWING THE SYSTEM TO A PEAK SNOW PRODUCING TIME OF TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE CANADIAN IS FASTER AND MATCHES THE CURRENT FORECAST AND
EXTENDED GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED FOR NOW WITH A TUESDAY
SNOW THREAT ENDING BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MODEST SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR...LIKE THE WEEKEND SURGE NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAD EARLY THIS
MONTH...WILL SPREAD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY
WARMING JUST BARELY GETTING GOING BY LATE THURSDAY...THEN PICKING UP
STEAM AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
IFR STRATUS SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE AREA ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRATUS MAY TRY
TO EXPAND ON THE WESTERN EDGE DUE TO MIXING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT THERE ON HOW WIDESPREAD IT WOULD BE. FOR NOW...CARRIED FEW-
SCATTERED IN BOTH KSUX AND KFSD TAF. FOR TONIGHT...NORTHEAST FLOW
INCREASES AFTER 06Z AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAIRLY DENSE
STRATUS DEVELOPING. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT IT...BUT IS NOT AS LOW
AS SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST. FOR NOW...SIDED WITH LOW MVFR...BUT
COULD BE IFR SATURDAY MORNING AT MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 301750
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1150 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE JANUARY TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WILL SLIP TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE INTO MIDDAY AROUND 10
TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE RESIDUAL BAND OF
STRATUS ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH MID
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MAY LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE
DAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN
OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES TO LOWER 50S IN THE LOWER BRULE AREA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGH
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS A BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO THE AREA. BREEZY WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING...BUT THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOWS RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LOW LEVEL COOLING WILL START SLOWLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT STEADILY
INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THE COOLING WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LEVELING OFF AROUND NOON BEFORE DROPPING SLOWLY.
CLOUDS WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING...FIRST FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN OVERALL AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE COLDER AIR.

SHORT WAVE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERLY WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MAKES THE SNOWFALL OUTLOOK
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED. THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE BEST SNOWFALL
WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT 1
TO 3 INCHES SHOULD STILL ACCUMULATE OVER PART OF NORTHWEST IOWA. THE
BIGGER QUESTION IS WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY SYSTEM AND THE INTERACTION
OF THE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT. BELIEVE THE
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL OVER OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA MAY BE UNDERDONE
FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP TOTAL
AMOUNTS AT AN INCH OR LESS NORTH OF THE SUX TO SLB AND SOUTH CORNER.
THE PROBLEM WITH GOING 1 TO 3 IS IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD BE OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA UP TOWARD MML
AND MWM IN SOUTHWEST MN...OR FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER AS
A RESULT OF THE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACTING. THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND
NORTHWEST IA BEING ON THE EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...IS ALSO WHY
POPS WILL NOT YET BE REAL HIGH.

AS WHATEVER SNOW THERE IS FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT AND DECREASES
SUNDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING AND WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT RAPIDLY MOVING WAVE IN THE STRONG
WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEVELOPING WARM
ADVECTION TO BRING SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATER MONDAY.

ANOTHER RAPIDLY MOVING AND STRONGER WAVE WILL APPROACH TUESDAY...
REPLACE MODEST WARMING WITH ANOTHER COOLDOWN BEHIND IT...AND BRING
ANOTHER SNOW THREAT. THERE IS A TIMING PROBLEM WITH THE GFS AND EC
BOTH NOW SLOWING THE SYSTEM TO A PEAK SNOW PRODUCING TIME OF TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE CANADIAN IS FASTER AND MATCHES THE CURRENT FORECAST AND
EXTENDED GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED FOR NOW WITH A TUESDAY
SNOW THREAT ENDING BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MODEST SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR...LIKE THE WEEKEND SURGE NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAD EARLY THIS
MONTH...WILL SPREAD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY
WARMING JUST BARELY GETTING GOING BY LATE THURSDAY...THEN PICKING UP
STEAM AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
IFR STRATUS SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE AREA ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRATUS MAY TRY
TO EXPAND ON THE WESTERN EDGE DUE TO MIXING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT THERE ON HOW WIDESPREAD IT WOULD BE. FOR NOW...CARRIED FEW-
SCATTERED IN BOTH KSUX AND KFSD TAF. FOR TONIGHT...NORTHEAST FLOW
INCREASES AFTER 06Z AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAIRLY DENSE
STRATUS DEVELOPING. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT IT...BUT IS NOT AS LOW
AS SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST. FOR NOW...SIDED WITH LOW MVFR...BUT
COULD BE IFR SATURDAY MORNING AT MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 301750
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1150 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE JANUARY TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WILL SLIP TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE INTO MIDDAY AROUND 10
TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE RESIDUAL BAND OF
STRATUS ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH MID
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MAY LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE
DAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN
OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES TO LOWER 50S IN THE LOWER BRULE AREA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGH
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS A BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO THE AREA. BREEZY WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING...BUT THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOWS RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LOW LEVEL COOLING WILL START SLOWLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT STEADILY
INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THE COOLING WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LEVELING OFF AROUND NOON BEFORE DROPPING SLOWLY.
CLOUDS WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING...FIRST FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN OVERALL AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE COLDER AIR.

SHORT WAVE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERLY WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MAKES THE SNOWFALL OUTLOOK
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED. THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE BEST SNOWFALL
WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT 1
TO 3 INCHES SHOULD STILL ACCUMULATE OVER PART OF NORTHWEST IOWA. THE
BIGGER QUESTION IS WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY SYSTEM AND THE INTERACTION
OF THE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT. BELIEVE THE
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL OVER OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA MAY BE UNDERDONE
FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP TOTAL
AMOUNTS AT AN INCH OR LESS NORTH OF THE SUX TO SLB AND SOUTH CORNER.
THE PROBLEM WITH GOING 1 TO 3 IS IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD BE OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA UP TOWARD MML
AND MWM IN SOUTHWEST MN...OR FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER AS
A RESULT OF THE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACTING. THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND
NORTHWEST IA BEING ON THE EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...IS ALSO WHY
POPS WILL NOT YET BE REAL HIGH.

AS WHATEVER SNOW THERE IS FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT AND DECREASES
SUNDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING AND WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT RAPIDLY MOVING WAVE IN THE STRONG
WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEVELOPING WARM
ADVECTION TO BRING SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATER MONDAY.

ANOTHER RAPIDLY MOVING AND STRONGER WAVE WILL APPROACH TUESDAY...
REPLACE MODEST WARMING WITH ANOTHER COOLDOWN BEHIND IT...AND BRING
ANOTHER SNOW THREAT. THERE IS A TIMING PROBLEM WITH THE GFS AND EC
BOTH NOW SLOWING THE SYSTEM TO A PEAK SNOW PRODUCING TIME OF TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE CANADIAN IS FASTER AND MATCHES THE CURRENT FORECAST AND
EXTENDED GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED FOR NOW WITH A TUESDAY
SNOW THREAT ENDING BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MODEST SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR...LIKE THE WEEKEND SURGE NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAD EARLY THIS
MONTH...WILL SPREAD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY
WARMING JUST BARELY GETTING GOING BY LATE THURSDAY...THEN PICKING UP
STEAM AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
IFR STRATUS SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE AREA ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRATUS MAY TRY
TO EXPAND ON THE WESTERN EDGE DUE TO MIXING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT THERE ON HOW WIDESPREAD IT WOULD BE. FOR NOW...CARRIED FEW-
SCATTERED IN BOTH KSUX AND KFSD TAF. FOR TONIGHT...NORTHEAST FLOW
INCREASES AFTER 06Z AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAIRLY DENSE
STRATUS DEVELOPING. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT IT...BUT IS NOT AS LOW
AS SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST. FOR NOW...SIDED WITH LOW MVFR...BUT
COULD BE IFR SATURDAY MORNING AT MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KABR 301744
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1144 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TODAY PERIOD FORECAST. LOW CLOUDS ARE
JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM THIS CWA...WITH JUST SOME
HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND A RETURN FLOW WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE REGIONS OF THE LEOLA
HILLS AND SISSETON HILLS...BUT AS WINDS GAIN A SLIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE STRATUS WILL
MIX OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO AGAIN RISE TO SOME 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE THE LAST DAY TO DO
SO...AT LEAST IN THE NEXT 7 DAY FORECAST.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS DRY TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COLDER AIR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING...AND WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE
TEENS AND TWENTIES LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
INFLUENCING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODERATE FORCING WILL COMBINE WITH A FAIRLY SHALLOW SNOW
GROWTH ZONE INITIALLY...AND THEN AS THE COLUMN COOLS AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE DEEPENS WE LOSE THE FORCING. SO OVERALL EXPECTING
ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME IT IS LOOKING LIKE
ANYWHERE FROM A FEW TENTHS TO UP TO 2 INCHES. WINDS INCREASE AND
THE COLDEST AIR SETTLES IN BY SUNDAY MORNING. 925 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST AT -20 CELSIUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.
WIND AND COLD TEMPS COULD RESULT IN APPARENT TEMPS DROPPING TO THE
TWENTY BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT CATEGORY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN SUNDAY...BRINGING ANY LINGERING
SNOWFALL TO AN END. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF DECENT SHORTWAVES SET TO AFFECT
THE REGION. ONE OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH A SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY STRONG HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED TO THE EAST ON MONDAY BY AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY...AND
RIGHT NOW SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW TO BE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO
HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND AND LEAVE THE
LATE PART OF THE PERIOD DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME COOLER AIR DROPS OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE COMMON THAT DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT THE
WINDS FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...TO THE SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. AN MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL ALSO SINK
SOUTHWARD AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS BY 10Z SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. BY
12Z...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO ALL AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OR JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 301744
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1144 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TODAY PERIOD FORECAST. LOW CLOUDS ARE
JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM THIS CWA...WITH JUST SOME
HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND A RETURN FLOW WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE REGIONS OF THE LEOLA
HILLS AND SISSETON HILLS...BUT AS WINDS GAIN A SLIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE STRATUS WILL
MIX OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO AGAIN RISE TO SOME 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE THE LAST DAY TO DO
SO...AT LEAST IN THE NEXT 7 DAY FORECAST.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS DRY TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COLDER AIR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING...AND WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE
TEENS AND TWENTIES LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
INFLUENCING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODERATE FORCING WILL COMBINE WITH A FAIRLY SHALLOW SNOW
GROWTH ZONE INITIALLY...AND THEN AS THE COLUMN COOLS AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE DEEPENS WE LOSE THE FORCING. SO OVERALL EXPECTING
ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME IT IS LOOKING LIKE
ANYWHERE FROM A FEW TENTHS TO UP TO 2 INCHES. WINDS INCREASE AND
THE COLDEST AIR SETTLES IN BY SUNDAY MORNING. 925 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST AT -20 CELSIUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.
WIND AND COLD TEMPS COULD RESULT IN APPARENT TEMPS DROPPING TO THE
TWENTY BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT CATEGORY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN SUNDAY...BRINGING ANY LINGERING
SNOWFALL TO AN END. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF DECENT SHORTWAVES SET TO AFFECT
THE REGION. ONE OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH A SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY STRONG HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED TO THE EAST ON MONDAY BY AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY...AND
RIGHT NOW SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW TO BE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO
HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND AND LEAVE THE
LATE PART OF THE PERIOD DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME COOLER AIR DROPS OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE COMMON THAT DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT THE
WINDS FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...TO THE SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. AN MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL ALSO SINK
SOUTHWARD AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS BY 10Z SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. BY
12Z...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO ALL AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OR JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 301659
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
959 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES AND FLATTENING
THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED TROF IS ADVANCING
INTO ERN MT/ERN WY.

TODAY...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND PUSH THE SFC
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL ALLOW THERMAL RIDGE TO
NOSE INTO THE CWFA AND HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 50S ON THE SD
PLAINS...A LITTLE COOLER FURTHER WEST. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM SO DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...A STRONGER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. TEMP FCST
WILL BE TRICKY AS ARCTIC AIR ATTEMPTS TO BACK INTO THE SD PLAINS
WHILE INVERTED SFC TROF OVER NERN WY KEEPS TEMPS WARMER IN THE
WEST. AS 140KT JET STREAK ON BACK SIDE OF TROF ENTERS THE WRN
ZONES LATE ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC WILL PLUNGE SWD
THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWFA. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH JET
STREAK AND LO LVL CAA WITH RESULT IN WDSPRD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WRN
SD...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE IN NERN WY. ACCUMS SHOULD BE LIGHT IN
MOST AREAS...GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR LESS...GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE.
TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SETTLE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THE SD
PLAINS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE WRN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN UNSETTLED AND COLDER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW...BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS
OF THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS
TRICKY AS SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE CWA AT TIMES.
A BRIEF WARMUP IS STILL EXPECTED ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL AGAIN DIVE SOUTHWARD TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE ON EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST THE
COLDEST AIR WILL REACH. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 956 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 301659
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
959 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES AND FLATTENING
THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED TROF IS ADVANCING
INTO ERN MT/ERN WY.

TODAY...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND PUSH THE SFC
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL ALLOW THERMAL RIDGE TO
NOSE INTO THE CWFA AND HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 50S ON THE SD
PLAINS...A LITTLE COOLER FURTHER WEST. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM SO DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...A STRONGER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. TEMP FCST
WILL BE TRICKY AS ARCTIC AIR ATTEMPTS TO BACK INTO THE SD PLAINS
WHILE INVERTED SFC TROF OVER NERN WY KEEPS TEMPS WARMER IN THE
WEST. AS 140KT JET STREAK ON BACK SIDE OF TROF ENTERS THE WRN
ZONES LATE ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC WILL PLUNGE SWD
THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWFA. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH JET
STREAK AND LO LVL CAA WITH RESULT IN WDSPRD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WRN
SD...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE IN NERN WY. ACCUMS SHOULD BE LIGHT IN
MOST AREAS...GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR LESS...GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE.
TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SETTLE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THE SD
PLAINS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE WRN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN UNSETTLED AND COLDER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW...BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS
OF THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS
TRICKY AS SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE CWA AT TIMES.
A BRIEF WARMUP IS STILL EXPECTED ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL AGAIN DIVE SOUTHWARD TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE ON EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST THE
COLDEST AIR WILL REACH. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 956 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...POJORLIE






000
FXUS63 KABR 301542 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
942 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TODAY PERIOD FORECAST. LOW CLOUDS ARE
JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM THIS CWA...WITH JUST SOME
HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND A RETURN FLOW WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE REGIONS OF THE LEOLA
HILLS AND SISSETON HILLS...BUT AS WINDS GAIN A SLIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE STRATUS WILL
MIX OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO AGAIN RISE TO SOME 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE THE LAST DAY TO DO
SO...AT LEAST IN THE NEXT 7 DAY FORECAST.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS DRY TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COLDER AIR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING...AND WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE
TEENS AND TWENTIES LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
INFLUENCING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODERATE FORCING WILL COMBINE WITH A FAIRLY SHALLOW SNOW
GROWTH ZONE INITIALLY...AND THEN AS THE COLUMN COOLS AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE DEEPENS WE LOSE THE FORCING. SO OVERALL EXPECTING
ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME IT IS LOOKING LIKE
ANYWHERE FROM A FEW TENTHS TO UP TO 2 INCHES. WINDS INCREASE AND
THE COLDEST AIR SETTLES IN BY SUNDAY MORNING. 925 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST AT -20 CELSIUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.
WIND AND COLD TEMPS COULD RESULT IN APPARENT TEMPS DROPPING TO THE
TWENTY BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT CATEGORY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN SUNDAY...BRINGING ANY LINGERING
SNOWFALL TO AN END. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF DECENT SHORTWAVES SET TO AFFECT
THE REGION. ONE OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH A SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY STRONG HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED TO THE EAST ON MONDAY BY AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY...AND
RIGHT NOW SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW TO BE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO
HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND AND LEAVE THE
LATE PART OF THE PERIOD DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME COOLER AIR DROPS OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE COMMON THAT DAY.


&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...INCLUDING AT KATY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OTHERWISE UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN MVFR CIGS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. VSBYS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 301542 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
942 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TODAY PERIOD FORECAST. LOW CLOUDS ARE
JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM THIS CWA...WITH JUST SOME
HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND A RETURN FLOW WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE REGIONS OF THE LEOLA
HILLS AND SISSETON HILLS...BUT AS WINDS GAIN A SLIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE STRATUS WILL
MIX OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO AGAIN RISE TO SOME 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE THE LAST DAY TO DO
SO...AT LEAST IN THE NEXT 7 DAY FORECAST.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS DRY TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COLDER AIR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING...AND WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE
TEENS AND TWENTIES LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
INFLUENCING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODERATE FORCING WILL COMBINE WITH A FAIRLY SHALLOW SNOW
GROWTH ZONE INITIALLY...AND THEN AS THE COLUMN COOLS AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE DEEPENS WE LOSE THE FORCING. SO OVERALL EXPECTING
ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME IT IS LOOKING LIKE
ANYWHERE FROM A FEW TENTHS TO UP TO 2 INCHES. WINDS INCREASE AND
THE COLDEST AIR SETTLES IN BY SUNDAY MORNING. 925 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST AT -20 CELSIUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.
WIND AND COLD TEMPS COULD RESULT IN APPARENT TEMPS DROPPING TO THE
TWENTY BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT CATEGORY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN SUNDAY...BRINGING ANY LINGERING
SNOWFALL TO AN END. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF DECENT SHORTWAVES SET TO AFFECT
THE REGION. ONE OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH A SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY STRONG HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED TO THE EAST ON MONDAY BY AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY...AND
RIGHT NOW SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW TO BE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO
HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND AND LEAVE THE
LATE PART OF THE PERIOD DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME COOLER AIR DROPS OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE COMMON THAT DAY.


&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...INCLUDING AT KATY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OTHERWISE UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN MVFR CIGS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. VSBYS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 301136
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
536 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE JANUARY TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WILL SLIP TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE INTO MIDDAY AROUND 10 TO
20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE RESIDUAL BAND OF STRATUS
ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH MID
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MAY LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE
DAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN OUR
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES TO LOWER 50S IN THE LOWER BRULE AREA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGH
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS A BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO THE AREA. BREEZY WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING...BUT THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOWS RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LOW LEVEL COOLING WILL START SLOWLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT STEADILY
INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THE COOLING WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LEVELING OFF AROUND NOON BEFORE DROPPING SLOWLY.
CLOUDS WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING...FIRST FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN OVERALL AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE COLDER AIR.

SHORT WAVE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERLY WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MAKES THE SNOWFALL OUTLOOK
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED. THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE BEST SNOWFALL
WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT 1
TO 3 INCHES SHOULD STILL ACCUMULATE OVER PART OF NORTHWEST IOWA. THE
BIGGER QUESTION IS WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY SYSTEM AND THE INTERACTION
OF THE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT. BELIEVE THE
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL OVER OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA MAY BE UNDERDONE
FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP TOTAL
AMOUNTS AT AN INCH OR LESS NORTH OF THE SUX TO SLB AND SOUTH CORNER.
THE PROBLEM WITH GOING 1 TO 3 IS IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD BE OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA UP TOWARD MML
AND MWM IN SOUTHWEST MN...OR FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER AS
A RESULT OF THE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACTING. THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND
NORTHWEST IA BEING ON THE EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...IS ALSO WHY
POPS WILL NOT YET BE REAL HIGH.

AS WHATEVER SNOW THERE IS FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT AND DECREASES
SUNDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING AND WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT RAPIDLY MOVING WAVE IN THE STRONG
WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEVELOPING WARM
ADVECTION TO BRING SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATER MONDAY.

ANOTHER RAPIDLY MOVING AND STRONGER WAVE WILL APPROACH TUESDAY...
REPLACE MODEST WARMING WITH ANOTHER COOLDOWN BEHIND IT...AND BRING
ANOTHER SNOW THREAT. THERE IS A TIMING PROBLEM WITH THE GFS AND EC
BOTH NOW SLOWING THE SYSTEM TO A PEAK SNOW PRODUCING TIME OF TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE CANADIAN IS FASTER AND MATCHES THE CURRENT FORECAST AND
EXTENDED GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED FOR NOW WITH A TUESDAY
SNOW THREAT ENDING BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MODEST SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR...LIKE THE WEEKEND SURGE NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAD EARLY THIS
MONTH...WILL SPREAD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY
WARMING JUST BARELY GETTING GOING BY LATE THURSDAY...THEN PICKING UP
STEAM AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS KEEP THE NARROW BAND OF MVFR STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA INTO THE BROOKINGS AREA NEARLY STATIONARY AND GRADUALLY
SHRINK THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 17Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT
WILL REMAIN AROUND 7 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 301136
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
536 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE JANUARY TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WILL SLIP TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE INTO MIDDAY AROUND 10 TO
20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE RESIDUAL BAND OF STRATUS
ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH MID
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MAY LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE
DAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN OUR
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES TO LOWER 50S IN THE LOWER BRULE AREA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGH
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS A BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO THE AREA. BREEZY WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING...BUT THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOWS RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LOW LEVEL COOLING WILL START SLOWLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT STEADILY
INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THE COOLING WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LEVELING OFF AROUND NOON BEFORE DROPPING SLOWLY.
CLOUDS WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING...FIRST FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN OVERALL AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE COLDER AIR.

SHORT WAVE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERLY WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MAKES THE SNOWFALL OUTLOOK
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED. THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE BEST SNOWFALL
WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT 1
TO 3 INCHES SHOULD STILL ACCUMULATE OVER PART OF NORTHWEST IOWA. THE
BIGGER QUESTION IS WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY SYSTEM AND THE INTERACTION
OF THE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT. BELIEVE THE
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL OVER OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA MAY BE UNDERDONE
FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP TOTAL
AMOUNTS AT AN INCH OR LESS NORTH OF THE SUX TO SLB AND SOUTH CORNER.
THE PROBLEM WITH GOING 1 TO 3 IS IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD BE OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA UP TOWARD MML
AND MWM IN SOUTHWEST MN...OR FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER AS
A RESULT OF THE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACTING. THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND
NORTHWEST IA BEING ON THE EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...IS ALSO WHY
POPS WILL NOT YET BE REAL HIGH.

AS WHATEVER SNOW THERE IS FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT AND DECREASES
SUNDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING AND WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT RAPIDLY MOVING WAVE IN THE STRONG
WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEVELOPING WARM
ADVECTION TO BRING SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATER MONDAY.

ANOTHER RAPIDLY MOVING AND STRONGER WAVE WILL APPROACH TUESDAY...
REPLACE MODEST WARMING WITH ANOTHER COOLDOWN BEHIND IT...AND BRING
ANOTHER SNOW THREAT. THERE IS A TIMING PROBLEM WITH THE GFS AND EC
BOTH NOW SLOWING THE SYSTEM TO A PEAK SNOW PRODUCING TIME OF TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE CANADIAN IS FASTER AND MATCHES THE CURRENT FORECAST AND
EXTENDED GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED FOR NOW WITH A TUESDAY
SNOW THREAT ENDING BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MODEST SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR...LIKE THE WEEKEND SURGE NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAD EARLY THIS
MONTH...WILL SPREAD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY
WARMING JUST BARELY GETTING GOING BY LATE THURSDAY...THEN PICKING UP
STEAM AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS KEEP THE NARROW BAND OF MVFR STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA INTO THE BROOKINGS AREA NEARLY STATIONARY AND GRADUALLY
SHRINK THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 17Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT
WILL REMAIN AROUND 7 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KABR 301128 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
528 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND A RETURN FLOW WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE REGIONS OF THE LEOLA
HILLS AND SISSETON HILLS...BUT AS WINDS GAIN A SLIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE STRATUS WILL
MIX OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO AGAIN RISE TO SOME 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE THE LAST DAY TO DO
SO...AT LEAST IN THE NEXT 7 DAY FORECAST.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS DRY TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COLDER AIR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING...AND WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE
TEENS AND TWENTIES LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
INFLUENCING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODERATE FORCING WILL COMBINE WITH A FAIRLY SHALLOW SNOW
GROWTH ZONE INITIALLY...AND THEN AS THE COLUMN COOLS AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE DEEPENS WE LOSE THE FORCING. SO OVERALL EXPECTING
ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME IT IS LOOKING LIKE
ANYWHERE FROM A FEW TENTHS TO UP TO 2 INCHES. WINDS INCREASE AND
THE COLDEST AIR SETTLES IN BY SUNDAY MORNING. 925 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST AT -20 CELSIUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.
WIND AND COLD TEMPS COULD RESULT IN APPARENT TEMPS DROPPING TO THE
TWENTY BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT CATEGORY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN SUNDAY...BRINGING ANY LINGERING
SNOWFALL TO AN END. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF DECENT SHORTWAVES SET TO AFFECT
THE REGION. ONE OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH A SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY STRONG HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED TO THE EAST ON MONDAY BY AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY...AND
RIGHT NOW SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW TO BE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO
HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND AND LEAVE THE
LATE PART OF THE PERIOD DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME COOLER AIR DROPS OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE COMMON THAT DAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...INCLUDING AT KATY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OTHERWISE UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN MVFR CIGS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. VSBYS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 301128 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
528 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND A RETURN FLOW WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE REGIONS OF THE LEOLA
HILLS AND SISSETON HILLS...BUT AS WINDS GAIN A SLIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE STRATUS WILL
MIX OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO AGAIN RISE TO SOME 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE THE LAST DAY TO DO
SO...AT LEAST IN THE NEXT 7 DAY FORECAST.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS DRY TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COLDER AIR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING...AND WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE
TEENS AND TWENTIES LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
INFLUENCING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODERATE FORCING WILL COMBINE WITH A FAIRLY SHALLOW SNOW
GROWTH ZONE INITIALLY...AND THEN AS THE COLUMN COOLS AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE DEEPENS WE LOSE THE FORCING. SO OVERALL EXPECTING
ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME IT IS LOOKING LIKE
ANYWHERE FROM A FEW TENTHS TO UP TO 2 INCHES. WINDS INCREASE AND
THE COLDEST AIR SETTLES IN BY SUNDAY MORNING. 925 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST AT -20 CELSIUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.
WIND AND COLD TEMPS COULD RESULT IN APPARENT TEMPS DROPPING TO THE
TWENTY BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT CATEGORY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN SUNDAY...BRINGING ANY LINGERING
SNOWFALL TO AN END. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF DECENT SHORTWAVES SET TO AFFECT
THE REGION. ONE OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH A SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY STRONG HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED TO THE EAST ON MONDAY BY AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY...AND
RIGHT NOW SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW TO BE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO
HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND AND LEAVE THE
LATE PART OF THE PERIOD DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME COOLER AIR DROPS OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE COMMON THAT DAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...INCLUDING AT KATY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OTHERWISE UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN MVFR CIGS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. VSBYS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 300955
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
255 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES AND FLATTENING
THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED TROF IS ADVANCING
INTO ERN MT/ERN WY.

TODAY...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND PUSH THE SFC
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL ALLOW THERMAL RIDGE TO
NOSE INTO THE CWFA AND HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 50S ON THE SD
PLAINS...A LITTLE COOLER FURTHER WEST. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM SO DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...A STRONGER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. TEMP FCST
WILL BE TRICKY AS ARCTIC AIR ATTEMPS TO BACK INTO THE SD PLAINS
WHILE INVERTED SFC TROF OVER NERN WY KEEPS TEMPS WARMER IN THE
WEST. AS 140KT JET STREAK ON BACK SIDE OF TROF ENTERS THE WRN
ZONES LATE ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC WILL PLUNGE SWD
THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWFA. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH JET
STREAK AND LO LVL CAA WITH RESULT IN WDSPRD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WRN
SD...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE IN NERN WY. ACCUMS SHOULD BE LIGHT IN
MOST AREAS...GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR LESS...GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE.
TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SETTLE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THE SD
PLAINS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE WRN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN UNSETTLED AND COLDER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW...BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS
OF THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS
TRICKY AS SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE CWA AT TIMES.
A BRIEF WARMUP IS STILL EXPECTED ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL AGAIN DIVE SOUTHWARD TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE ON EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST THE
COLDEST AIR WILL REACH. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15






000
FXUS63 KUNR 300955
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
255 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES AND FLATTENING
THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED TROF IS ADVANCING
INTO ERN MT/ERN WY.

TODAY...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND PUSH THE SFC
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL ALLOW THERMAL RIDGE TO
NOSE INTO THE CWFA AND HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 50S ON THE SD
PLAINS...A LITTLE COOLER FURTHER WEST. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM SO DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...A STRONGER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. TEMP FCST
WILL BE TRICKY AS ARCTIC AIR ATTEMPS TO BACK INTO THE SD PLAINS
WHILE INVERTED SFC TROF OVER NERN WY KEEPS TEMPS WARMER IN THE
WEST. AS 140KT JET STREAK ON BACK SIDE OF TROF ENTERS THE WRN
ZONES LATE ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC WILL PLUNGE SWD
THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWFA. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH JET
STREAK AND LO LVL CAA WITH RESULT IN WDSPRD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WRN
SD...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE IN NERN WY. ACCUMS SHOULD BE LIGHT IN
MOST AREAS...GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR LESS...GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE.
TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SETTLE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THE SD
PLAINS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE WRN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN UNSETTLED AND COLDER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW...BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS
OF THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS
TRICKY AS SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE CWA AT TIMES.
A BRIEF WARMUP IS STILL EXPECTED ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL AGAIN DIVE SOUTHWARD TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE ON EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST THE
COLDEST AIR WILL REACH. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS63 KABR 300951
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
351 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND A RETURN FLOW WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE REGIONS OF THE LEOLA
HILLS AND SISSETON HILLS...BUT AS WINDS GAIN A SLIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE STRATUS WILL
MIX OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO AGAIN RISE TO SOME 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE THE LAST DAY TO DO
SO...AT LEAST IN THE NEXT 7 DAY FORECAST.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS DRY TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COLDER AIR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING...AND WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE
TEENS AND TWENTIES LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
INFLUENCING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODERATE FORCING WILL COMBINE WITH A FAIRLY SHALLOW SNOW
GROWTH ZONE INITIALLY...AND THEN AS THE COLUMN COOLS AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE DEEPENS WE LOSE THE FORCING. SO OVERALL EXPECTING
ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME IT IS LOOKING LIKE
ANYWHERE FROM A FEW TENTHS TO UP TO 2 INCHES. WINDS INCREASE AND
THE COLDEST AIR SETTLES IN BY SUNDAY MORNING. 925 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST AT -20 CELSIUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.
WIND AND COLD TEMPS COULD RESULT IN APPARENT TEMPS DROPPING TO THE
TWENTY BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT CATEGORY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN SUNDAY...BRINGING ANY LINGERING
SNOWFALL TO AN END. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF DECENT SHORTWAVES SET TO AFFECT
THE REGION. ONE OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH A SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY STRONG HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED TO THE EAST ON MONDAY BY AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY...AND
RIGHT NOW SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW TO BE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO
HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND AND LEAVE THE
LATE PART OF THE PERIOD DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME COOLER AIR DROPS OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE COMMON THAT DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCT-BKN STRATUS OVER ATY AND ABR ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 300951
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
351 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND A RETURN FLOW WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE REGIONS OF THE LEOLA
HILLS AND SISSETON HILLS...BUT AS WINDS GAIN A SLIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE STRATUS WILL
MIX OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO AGAIN RISE TO SOME 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE THE LAST DAY TO DO
SO...AT LEAST IN THE NEXT 7 DAY FORECAST.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS DRY TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COLDER AIR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING...AND WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE
TEENS AND TWENTIES LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
INFLUENCING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODERATE FORCING WILL COMBINE WITH A FAIRLY SHALLOW SNOW
GROWTH ZONE INITIALLY...AND THEN AS THE COLUMN COOLS AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE DEEPENS WE LOSE THE FORCING. SO OVERALL EXPECTING
ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME IT IS LOOKING LIKE
ANYWHERE FROM A FEW TENTHS TO UP TO 2 INCHES. WINDS INCREASE AND
THE COLDEST AIR SETTLES IN BY SUNDAY MORNING. 925 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST AT -20 CELSIUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.
WIND AND COLD TEMPS COULD RESULT IN APPARENT TEMPS DROPPING TO THE
TWENTY BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT CATEGORY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN SUNDAY...BRINGING ANY LINGERING
SNOWFALL TO AN END. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF DECENT SHORTWAVES SET TO AFFECT
THE REGION. ONE OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH A SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY STRONG HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED TO THE EAST ON MONDAY BY AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY...AND
RIGHT NOW SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW TO BE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO
HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND AND LEAVE THE
LATE PART OF THE PERIOD DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME COOLER AIR DROPS OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE COMMON THAT DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCT-BKN STRATUS OVER ATY AND ABR ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 300951
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
351 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND A RETURN FLOW WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE REGIONS OF THE LEOLA
HILLS AND SISSETON HILLS...BUT AS WINDS GAIN A SLIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE STRATUS WILL
MIX OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO AGAIN RISE TO SOME 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE THE LAST DAY TO DO
SO...AT LEAST IN THE NEXT 7 DAY FORECAST.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS DRY TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COLDER AIR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING...AND WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE
TEENS AND TWENTIES LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
INFLUENCING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODERATE FORCING WILL COMBINE WITH A FAIRLY SHALLOW SNOW
GROWTH ZONE INITIALLY...AND THEN AS THE COLUMN COOLS AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE DEEPENS WE LOSE THE FORCING. SO OVERALL EXPECTING
ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME IT IS LOOKING LIKE
ANYWHERE FROM A FEW TENTHS TO UP TO 2 INCHES. WINDS INCREASE AND
THE COLDEST AIR SETTLES IN BY SUNDAY MORNING. 925 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST AT -20 CELSIUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.
WIND AND COLD TEMPS COULD RESULT IN APPARENT TEMPS DROPPING TO THE
TWENTY BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT CATEGORY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN SUNDAY...BRINGING ANY LINGERING
SNOWFALL TO AN END. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF DECENT SHORTWAVES SET TO AFFECT
THE REGION. ONE OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH A SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY STRONG HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED TO THE EAST ON MONDAY BY AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY...AND
RIGHT NOW SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW TO BE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO
HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND AND LEAVE THE
LATE PART OF THE PERIOD DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME COOLER AIR DROPS OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE COMMON THAT DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCT-BKN STRATUS OVER ATY AND ABR ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 300951
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
351 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND A RETURN FLOW WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE REGIONS OF THE LEOLA
HILLS AND SISSETON HILLS...BUT AS WINDS GAIN A SLIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE STRATUS WILL
MIX OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO AGAIN RISE TO SOME 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE THE LAST DAY TO DO
SO...AT LEAST IN THE NEXT 7 DAY FORECAST.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS DRY TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COLDER AIR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING...AND WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE
TEENS AND TWENTIES LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
INFLUENCING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODERATE FORCING WILL COMBINE WITH A FAIRLY SHALLOW SNOW
GROWTH ZONE INITIALLY...AND THEN AS THE COLUMN COOLS AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE DEEPENS WE LOSE THE FORCING. SO OVERALL EXPECTING
ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME IT IS LOOKING LIKE
ANYWHERE FROM A FEW TENTHS TO UP TO 2 INCHES. WINDS INCREASE AND
THE COLDEST AIR SETTLES IN BY SUNDAY MORNING. 925 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST AT -20 CELSIUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.
WIND AND COLD TEMPS COULD RESULT IN APPARENT TEMPS DROPPING TO THE
TWENTY BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT CATEGORY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN SUNDAY...BRINGING ANY LINGERING
SNOWFALL TO AN END. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF DECENT SHORTWAVES SET TO AFFECT
THE REGION. ONE OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH A SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY STRONG HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED TO THE EAST ON MONDAY BY AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY...AND
RIGHT NOW SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW TO BE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO
HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND AND LEAVE THE
LATE PART OF THE PERIOD DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME COOLER AIR DROPS OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE COMMON THAT DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCT-BKN STRATUS OVER ATY AND ABR ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 300927
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE JANUARY TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WILL SLIP TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE INTO MIDDAY AROUND 10 TO
20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE RESIDUAL BAND OF STRATUS
ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH MID
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MAY LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE
DAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN OUR
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES TO LOWER 50S IN THE LOWER BRULE AREA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGH
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS A BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO THE AREA. BREEZY WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING...BUT THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOWS RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 20S.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LOW LEVEL COOLING WILL START SLOWLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT STEADILY
INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THE COOLING WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LEVELING OFF AROUND NOON BEFORE DROPPING SLOWLY.
CLOUDS WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING...FIRST FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN OVERALL AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE COLDER AIR.

SHORT WAVE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERLY WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MAKES THE SNOWFALL OUTLOOK
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED. THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE BEST SNOWFALL
WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT 1
TO 3 INCHES SHOULD STILL ACCUMULATE OVER PART OF NORTHWEST IOWA. THE
BIGGER QUESTION IS WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY SYSTEM AND THE INTERACTION
OF THE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT. BELIEVE THE
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL OVER OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA MAY BE UNDERDONE
FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP TOTAL
AMOUNTS AT AN INCH OR LESS NORTH OF THE SUX TO SLB AND SOUTH CORNER.
THE PROBLEM WITH GOING 1 TO 3 IS IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD BE OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA UP TOWARD MML
AND MWM IN SOUTHWEST MN...OR FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER AS
A RESULT OF THE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACTING. THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND
NORTHWEST IA BEING ON THE EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...IS ALSO WHY
POPS WILL NOT YET BE REAL HIGH.

AS WHATEVER SNOW THERE IS FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT AND DECREASES
SUNDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING AND WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT RAPIDLY MOVING WAVE IN THE STRONG
WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEVELOPING WARM
ADVECTION TO BRING SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATER MONDAY.

ANOTHER RAPIDLY MOVING AND STRONGER WAVE WILL APPROACH TUESDAY...
REPLACE MODEST WARMING WITH ANOTHER COOLDOWN BEHIND IT...AND BRING
ANOTHER SNOW THREAT. THERE IS A TIMING PROBLEM WITH THE GFS AND EC
BOTH NOW SLOWING THE SYSTEM TO A PEAK SNOW PRODUCING TIME OF TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE CANADIAN IS FASTER AND MATCHES THE CURRENT FORECAST AND
EXTENDED GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED FOR NOW WITH A TUESDAY
SNOW THREAT ENDING BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MODEST SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR...LIKE THE WEEKEND SURGE NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAD EARLY THIS
MONTH...WILL SPREAD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY
WARMING JUST BARELY GETTING GOING BY LATE THURSDAY...THEN PICKING UP
STEAM AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE BUT WILL LINGER IN PARTS
OF THE AREA...MAINLY EAST CENTRAL SD/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THROUGH
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CARRY MENTION FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT KFSD...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL
BE JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE AIRPORT SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
MODELS SHOWING LINGERING MOISTURE LAYER IN THE UPPER IFR-LOWER MVFR
RANGE FOR KFSD/KSUX THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING...BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE
AS RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER...NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL RE-DEVELOP
INTO A BROKEN CLOUD LAYER AND OPTED TO KEEP IT SCATTERED AT MOST FOR
NOW.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 300927
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE JANUARY TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WILL SLIP TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE INTO MIDDAY AROUND 10 TO
20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE RESIDUAL BAND OF STRATUS
ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH MID
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MAY LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE
DAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN OUR
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES TO LOWER 50S IN THE LOWER BRULE AREA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGH
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS A BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO THE AREA. BREEZY WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING...BUT THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOWS RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 20S.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LOW LEVEL COOLING WILL START SLOWLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT STEADILY
INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THE COOLING WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LEVELING OFF AROUND NOON BEFORE DROPPING SLOWLY.
CLOUDS WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING...FIRST FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN OVERALL AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE COLDER AIR.

SHORT WAVE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERLY WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MAKES THE SNOWFALL OUTLOOK
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED. THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE BEST SNOWFALL
WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT 1
TO 3 INCHES SHOULD STILL ACCUMULATE OVER PART OF NORTHWEST IOWA. THE
BIGGER QUESTION IS WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY SYSTEM AND THE INTERACTION
OF THE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT. BELIEVE THE
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL OVER OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA MAY BE UNDERDONE
FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP TOTAL
AMOUNTS AT AN INCH OR LESS NORTH OF THE SUX TO SLB AND SOUTH CORNER.
THE PROBLEM WITH GOING 1 TO 3 IS IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD BE OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA UP TOWARD MML
AND MWM IN SOUTHWEST MN...OR FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER AS
A RESULT OF THE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACTING. THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND
NORTHWEST IA BEING ON THE EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...IS ALSO WHY
POPS WILL NOT YET BE REAL HIGH.

AS WHATEVER SNOW THERE IS FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT AND DECREASES
SUNDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING AND WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT RAPIDLY MOVING WAVE IN THE STRONG
WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEVELOPING WARM
ADVECTION TO BRING SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATER MONDAY.

ANOTHER RAPIDLY MOVING AND STRONGER WAVE WILL APPROACH TUESDAY...
REPLACE MODEST WARMING WITH ANOTHER COOLDOWN BEHIND IT...AND BRING
ANOTHER SNOW THREAT. THERE IS A TIMING PROBLEM WITH THE GFS AND EC
BOTH NOW SLOWING THE SYSTEM TO A PEAK SNOW PRODUCING TIME OF TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE CANADIAN IS FASTER AND MATCHES THE CURRENT FORECAST AND
EXTENDED GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED FOR NOW WITH A TUESDAY
SNOW THREAT ENDING BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MODEST SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR...LIKE THE WEEKEND SURGE NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAD EARLY THIS
MONTH...WILL SPREAD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY
WARMING JUST BARELY GETTING GOING BY LATE THURSDAY...THEN PICKING UP
STEAM AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE BUT WILL LINGER IN PARTS
OF THE AREA...MAINLY EAST CENTRAL SD/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THROUGH
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CARRY MENTION FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT KFSD...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL
BE JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE AIRPORT SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
MODELS SHOWING LINGERING MOISTURE LAYER IN THE UPPER IFR-LOWER MVFR
RANGE FOR KFSD/KSUX THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING...BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE
AS RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER...NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL RE-DEVELOP
INTO A BROKEN CLOUD LAYER AND OPTED TO KEEP IT SCATTERED AT MOST FOR
NOW.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 300927
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE JANUARY TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WILL SLIP TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE INTO MIDDAY AROUND 10 TO
20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE RESIDUAL BAND OF STRATUS
ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH MID
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MAY LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE
DAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN OUR
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES TO LOWER 50S IN THE LOWER BRULE AREA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGH
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS A BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO THE AREA. BREEZY WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING...BUT THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOWS RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 20S.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LOW LEVEL COOLING WILL START SLOWLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT STEADILY
INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THE COOLING WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LEVELING OFF AROUND NOON BEFORE DROPPING SLOWLY.
CLOUDS WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING...FIRST FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN OVERALL AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE COLDER AIR.

SHORT WAVE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERLY WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MAKES THE SNOWFALL OUTLOOK
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED. THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE BEST SNOWFALL
WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT 1
TO 3 INCHES SHOULD STILL ACCUMULATE OVER PART OF NORTHWEST IOWA. THE
BIGGER QUESTION IS WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY SYSTEM AND THE INTERACTION
OF THE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT. BELIEVE THE
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL OVER OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA MAY BE UNDERDONE
FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP TOTAL
AMOUNTS AT AN INCH OR LESS NORTH OF THE SUX TO SLB AND SOUTH CORNER.
THE PROBLEM WITH GOING 1 TO 3 IS IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD BE OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA UP TOWARD MML
AND MWM IN SOUTHWEST MN...OR FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER AS
A RESULT OF THE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACTING. THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND
NORTHWEST IA BEING ON THE EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...IS ALSO WHY
POPS WILL NOT YET BE REAL HIGH.

AS WHATEVER SNOW THERE IS FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT AND DECREASES
SUNDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING AND WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT RAPIDLY MOVING WAVE IN THE STRONG
WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEVELOPING WARM
ADVECTION TO BRING SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATER MONDAY.

ANOTHER RAPIDLY MOVING AND STRONGER WAVE WILL APPROACH TUESDAY...
REPLACE MODEST WARMING WITH ANOTHER COOLDOWN BEHIND IT...AND BRING
ANOTHER SNOW THREAT. THERE IS A TIMING PROBLEM WITH THE GFS AND EC
BOTH NOW SLOWING THE SYSTEM TO A PEAK SNOW PRODUCING TIME OF TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE CANADIAN IS FASTER AND MATCHES THE CURRENT FORECAST AND
EXTENDED GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED FOR NOW WITH A TUESDAY
SNOW THREAT ENDING BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MODEST SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR...LIKE THE WEEKEND SURGE NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAD EARLY THIS
MONTH...WILL SPREAD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY
WARMING JUST BARELY GETTING GOING BY LATE THURSDAY...THEN PICKING UP
STEAM AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE BUT WILL LINGER IN PARTS
OF THE AREA...MAINLY EAST CENTRAL SD/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THROUGH
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CARRY MENTION FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT KFSD...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL
BE JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE AIRPORT SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
MODELS SHOWING LINGERING MOISTURE LAYER IN THE UPPER IFR-LOWER MVFR
RANGE FOR KFSD/KSUX THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING...BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE
AS RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER...NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL RE-DEVELOP
INTO A BROKEN CLOUD LAYER AND OPTED TO KEEP IT SCATTERED AT MOST FOR
NOW.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 300927
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE JANUARY TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WILL SLIP TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE INTO MIDDAY AROUND 10 TO
20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE RESIDUAL BAND OF STRATUS
ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH MID
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MAY LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE
DAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN OUR
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES TO LOWER 50S IN THE LOWER BRULE AREA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGH
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS A BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO THE AREA. BREEZY WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING...BUT THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOWS RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 20S.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LOW LEVEL COOLING WILL START SLOWLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT STEADILY
INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THE COOLING WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LEVELING OFF AROUND NOON BEFORE DROPPING SLOWLY.
CLOUDS WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING...FIRST FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN OVERALL AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE COLDER AIR.

SHORT WAVE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERLY WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MAKES THE SNOWFALL OUTLOOK
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED. THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE BEST SNOWFALL
WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT 1
TO 3 INCHES SHOULD STILL ACCUMULATE OVER PART OF NORTHWEST IOWA. THE
BIGGER QUESTION IS WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY SYSTEM AND THE INTERACTION
OF THE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT. BELIEVE THE
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL OVER OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA MAY BE UNDERDONE
FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP TOTAL
AMOUNTS AT AN INCH OR LESS NORTH OF THE SUX TO SLB AND SOUTH CORNER.
THE PROBLEM WITH GOING 1 TO 3 IS IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD BE OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA UP TOWARD MML
AND MWM IN SOUTHWEST MN...OR FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER AS
A RESULT OF THE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACTING. THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND
NORTHWEST IA BEING ON THE EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...IS ALSO WHY
POPS WILL NOT YET BE REAL HIGH.

AS WHATEVER SNOW THERE IS FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT AND DECREASES
SUNDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING AND WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT RAPIDLY MOVING WAVE IN THE STRONG
WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEVELOPING WARM
ADVECTION TO BRING SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATER MONDAY.

ANOTHER RAPIDLY MOVING AND STRONGER WAVE WILL APPROACH TUESDAY...
REPLACE MODEST WARMING WITH ANOTHER COOLDOWN BEHIND IT...AND BRING
ANOTHER SNOW THREAT. THERE IS A TIMING PROBLEM WITH THE GFS AND EC
BOTH NOW SLOWING THE SYSTEM TO A PEAK SNOW PRODUCING TIME OF TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE CANADIAN IS FASTER AND MATCHES THE CURRENT FORECAST AND
EXTENDED GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED FOR NOW WITH A TUESDAY
SNOW THREAT ENDING BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MODEST SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR...LIKE THE WEEKEND SURGE NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAD EARLY THIS
MONTH...WILL SPREAD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY
WARMING JUST BARELY GETTING GOING BY LATE THURSDAY...THEN PICKING UP
STEAM AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE BUT WILL LINGER IN PARTS
OF THE AREA...MAINLY EAST CENTRAL SD/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THROUGH
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CARRY MENTION FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT KFSD...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL
BE JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE AIRPORT SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
MODELS SHOWING LINGERING MOISTURE LAYER IN THE UPPER IFR-LOWER MVFR
RANGE FOR KFSD/KSUX THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING...BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE
AS RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER...NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL RE-DEVELOP
INTO A BROKEN CLOUD LAYER AND OPTED TO KEEP IT SCATTERED AT MOST FOR
NOW.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KABR 300526 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1126 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

SATELLITE SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS IN EASTERN SD SHRINKING THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED SKY COVER
TO SHOW THIS TREND. ALSO...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE WHERE
THIS CLEARING IS EXPECTED. UPDATED FORECAST.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OF BASICALLY WEST OF A MOBRIDGE TO GANN VALLEY LINE...AND
CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO ERODE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE CWA AS WELL. A FEW LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ALSO BEING REPORTED
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT -> SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE
TONIGHT BEING DISPLACED BY A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WAA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON /POSSIBLE WEAK DOWNSLOPE EVENT ON
FRIDAY?/. THEN...COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE FORECAST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM
GENERATING A LIGHT DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH OF SNOW SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE CWA. GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS SUGGESTING LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH EAST/NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY LOW LEVEL WINDS
OFF A STRONG DRY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...WHICH
TYPICALLY YIELDS DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET
OF THE ATMOS AROUND HERE WHILE SNOW IS BEING PRODUCED ALOFT. THE
GFS IN BUFKIT CURRENTLY SHOWS NO ISSUE SATURATING LOW
LEVELS...WHILE THE NAM12 DOES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL LAYER
OF DRY AIR TO HAVE TO OVERCOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA /MRLS AND
KATY/. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF DRY ENTRAINMENT LEADS TO A POTENTIAL
BUSTED SNOW FORECAST. FOR NOW...THE BAR IS SET AT APPX 60 PERCENT
FOR HIGHEST POPS AND SNOW ACCUMS TOP OUT AT GENERALLY A DUSTING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA TO AS MUCH AS 1.5-2.0 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FORECAST ZONES.



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A 1040MB SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. MODELS STILL INDICATING LIGHT SNOW BEING SQUEEZED OUT OF
WHATEVER AVAILABLE MOISTURE IF LEFT IN THE AIR MASS...SO HAVE
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTION AS
TO PERHAPS THE DRY AIR WITH THE HIGH CONFINING SNOW TO AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH...BUT CAN ADJUST THIS AS TIME APPROACHES.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE TO START OUT NEXT WEEK AS
THERE WILL BE TWO WEAK SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. ONE ON MONDAY AND
ANOTHER QUICKLY FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING
TUESDAY WILL BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
AS WELL. SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A QUICK MOVER SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS...BUT COULD BE SOME IMPACTS NONETHELESS
IF GUSTY WINDS COMBINE WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. OVERALL THE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON THE COLD
SIDE...ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST YOU GO IN THE CWA.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCT-BKN STRATUS OVER ATY AND ABR ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 300526 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1126 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

SATELLITE SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS IN EASTERN SD SHRINKING THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED SKY COVER
TO SHOW THIS TREND. ALSO...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE WHERE
THIS CLEARING IS EXPECTED. UPDATED FORECAST.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OF BASICALLY WEST OF A MOBRIDGE TO GANN VALLEY LINE...AND
CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO ERODE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE CWA AS WELL. A FEW LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ALSO BEING REPORTED
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT -> SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE
TONIGHT BEING DISPLACED BY A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WAA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON /POSSIBLE WEAK DOWNSLOPE EVENT ON
FRIDAY?/. THEN...COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE FORECAST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM
GENERATING A LIGHT DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH OF SNOW SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE CWA. GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS SUGGESTING LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH EAST/NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY LOW LEVEL WINDS
OFF A STRONG DRY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...WHICH
TYPICALLY YIELDS DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET
OF THE ATMOS AROUND HERE WHILE SNOW IS BEING PRODUCED ALOFT. THE
GFS IN BUFKIT CURRENTLY SHOWS NO ISSUE SATURATING LOW
LEVELS...WHILE THE NAM12 DOES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL LAYER
OF DRY AIR TO HAVE TO OVERCOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA /MRLS AND
KATY/. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF DRY ENTRAINMENT LEADS TO A POTENTIAL
BUSTED SNOW FORECAST. FOR NOW...THE BAR IS SET AT APPX 60 PERCENT
FOR HIGHEST POPS AND SNOW ACCUMS TOP OUT AT GENERALLY A DUSTING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA TO AS MUCH AS 1.5-2.0 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FORECAST ZONES.



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A 1040MB SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. MODELS STILL INDICATING LIGHT SNOW BEING SQUEEZED OUT OF
WHATEVER AVAILABLE MOISTURE IF LEFT IN THE AIR MASS...SO HAVE
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTION AS
TO PERHAPS THE DRY AIR WITH THE HIGH CONFINING SNOW TO AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH...BUT CAN ADJUST THIS AS TIME APPROACHES.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE TO START OUT NEXT WEEK AS
THERE WILL BE TWO WEAK SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. ONE ON MONDAY AND
ANOTHER QUICKLY FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING
TUESDAY WILL BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
AS WELL. SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A QUICK MOVER SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS...BUT COULD BE SOME IMPACTS NONETHELESS
IF GUSTY WINDS COMBINE WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. OVERALL THE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON THE COLD
SIDE...ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST YOU GO IN THE CWA.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCT-BKN STRATUS OVER ATY AND ABR ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 300514
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1014 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 117 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SPLIT FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH FAST MILD NW
FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT WAA WITH A THERMAL RIDGE TIMING OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY. WEAK FORCING AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE LL MOISTURE
WILL SUPPORT DRY WX WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF CIRRUS
LOOK POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM A DEEP SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST GRIDS...SAVE FOR AN UPTICK IN HIGHS FRIDAY. THERMAL RIDGE
TIMING WITH PEAK HEATING/LACK OF SNOW COVER/AND DECENT TO STRONG
INSOLATION SUPPORTS A TREND TO THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S AT MOST
AREAS. A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WITH AN ASSOCIATED LL
ARCTIC BUBBLE WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PROVINCES. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD
BIAS TO THE NEARLY STALLED LL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...DIRECTING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SAT MORNING. CURRENTLY...GUIDANCE SUGGEST ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE
MORE INTO THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
TRACK RECORD OF THESE TYPES OF FEATURES IN THE AREA...AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL/STRONGER PUSH IS LIKELY. HAVE ADJUSTED FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS
FOR ANTICIPATION OF THIS...WITH A DOWNTREND ACROSS NW SD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 117 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A UNSETTLED AND COLDER PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES AND THE
TIMING/INTENSITY OF SHORTWAVES...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME
DISCREPANCIES.

A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY...
BRINGING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW
DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY MORNING. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST PLACES.
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 INCHES OR SO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL LIKELY MEANDER INTO OR ACROSS THE CWA AT TIMES. A
BRIEF WARMUP IS STILL EXPECTED ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE. THE WAVE LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY...SO
INCREASED POPS FOR TUESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL AGAIN DIVE SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE ON EXACTLY HOW FAR
WEST THE COLDEST AIR WILL REACH. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE WARMER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 300514
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1014 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 117 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SPLIT FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH FAST MILD NW
FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT WAA WITH A THERMAL RIDGE TIMING OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY. WEAK FORCING AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE LL MOISTURE
WILL SUPPORT DRY WX WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF CIRRUS
LOOK POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM A DEEP SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST GRIDS...SAVE FOR AN UPTICK IN HIGHS FRIDAY. THERMAL RIDGE
TIMING WITH PEAK HEATING/LACK OF SNOW COVER/AND DECENT TO STRONG
INSOLATION SUPPORTS A TREND TO THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S AT MOST
AREAS. A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WITH AN ASSOCIATED LL
ARCTIC BUBBLE WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PROVINCES. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD
BIAS TO THE NEARLY STALLED LL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...DIRECTING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SAT MORNING. CURRENTLY...GUIDANCE SUGGEST ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE
MORE INTO THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
TRACK RECORD OF THESE TYPES OF FEATURES IN THE AREA...AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL/STRONGER PUSH IS LIKELY. HAVE ADJUSTED FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS
FOR ANTICIPATION OF THIS...WITH A DOWNTREND ACROSS NW SD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 117 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A UNSETTLED AND COLDER PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES AND THE
TIMING/INTENSITY OF SHORTWAVES...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME
DISCREPANCIES.

A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY...
BRINGING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW
DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY MORNING. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST PLACES.
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 INCHES OR SO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL LIKELY MEANDER INTO OR ACROSS THE CWA AT TIMES. A
BRIEF WARMUP IS STILL EXPECTED ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE. THE WAVE LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY...SO
INCREASED POPS FOR TUESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL AGAIN DIVE SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE ON EXACTLY HOW FAR
WEST THE COLDEST AIR WILL REACH. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE WARMER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 300514
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1014 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 117 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SPLIT FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH FAST MILD NW
FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT WAA WITH A THERMAL RIDGE TIMING OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY. WEAK FORCING AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE LL MOISTURE
WILL SUPPORT DRY WX WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF CIRRUS
LOOK POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM A DEEP SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST GRIDS...SAVE FOR AN UPTICK IN HIGHS FRIDAY. THERMAL RIDGE
TIMING WITH PEAK HEATING/LACK OF SNOW COVER/AND DECENT TO STRONG
INSOLATION SUPPORTS A TREND TO THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S AT MOST
AREAS. A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WITH AN ASSOCIATED LL
ARCTIC BUBBLE WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PROVINCES. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD
BIAS TO THE NEARLY STALLED LL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...DIRECTING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SAT MORNING. CURRENTLY...GUIDANCE SUGGEST ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE
MORE INTO THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
TRACK RECORD OF THESE TYPES OF FEATURES IN THE AREA...AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL/STRONGER PUSH IS LIKELY. HAVE ADJUSTED FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS
FOR ANTICIPATION OF THIS...WITH A DOWNTREND ACROSS NW SD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 117 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A UNSETTLED AND COLDER PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES AND THE
TIMING/INTENSITY OF SHORTWAVES...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME
DISCREPANCIES.

A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY...
BRINGING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW
DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY MORNING. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST PLACES.
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 INCHES OR SO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL LIKELY MEANDER INTO OR ACROSS THE CWA AT TIMES. A
BRIEF WARMUP IS STILL EXPECTED ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE. THE WAVE LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY...SO
INCREASED POPS FOR TUESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL AGAIN DIVE SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE ON EXACTLY HOW FAR
WEST THE COLDEST AIR WILL REACH. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE WARMER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 300514
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1014 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 117 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SPLIT FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH FAST MILD NW
FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT WAA WITH A THERMAL RIDGE TIMING OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY. WEAK FORCING AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE LL MOISTURE
WILL SUPPORT DRY WX WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF CIRRUS
LOOK POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM A DEEP SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST GRIDS...SAVE FOR AN UPTICK IN HIGHS FRIDAY. THERMAL RIDGE
TIMING WITH PEAK HEATING/LACK OF SNOW COVER/AND DECENT TO STRONG
INSOLATION SUPPORTS A TREND TO THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S AT MOST
AREAS. A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WITH AN ASSOCIATED LL
ARCTIC BUBBLE WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PROVINCES. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD
BIAS TO THE NEARLY STALLED LL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...DIRECTING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SAT MORNING. CURRENTLY...GUIDANCE SUGGEST ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE
MORE INTO THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
TRACK RECORD OF THESE TYPES OF FEATURES IN THE AREA...AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL/STRONGER PUSH IS LIKELY. HAVE ADJUSTED FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS
FOR ANTICIPATION OF THIS...WITH A DOWNTREND ACROSS NW SD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 117 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A UNSETTLED AND COLDER PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES AND THE
TIMING/INTENSITY OF SHORTWAVES...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME
DISCREPANCIES.

A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY...
BRINGING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW
DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY MORNING. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST PLACES.
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 INCHES OR SO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL LIKELY MEANDER INTO OR ACROSS THE CWA AT TIMES. A
BRIEF WARMUP IS STILL EXPECTED ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE. THE WAVE LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY...SO
INCREASED POPS FOR TUESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL AGAIN DIVE SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE ON EXACTLY HOW FAR
WEST THE COLDEST AIR WILL REACH. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE WARMER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KFSD 300445
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1045 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS MIXING DIES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. HAVE COOLED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST
WHERE RADIATIVE CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD.

MODELS HINT AT A BAND OF CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
NEBRASKA BORDER AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY.  THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...WHICH MAY IMPACT
WARMING SOME. REGARDLESS...925 HPA TEMPS WARM 7-10 C ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WITH A FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST MIXING
WINDS...HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE NOW PRESENTING THEMSELVES THROUGH
THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST CHANCES
ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH MODELS TRENDING A BIT
SLOWER ON THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION. PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED WITH
THE MAJORITY OF HIGHER QPF FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE CWA. THERE STILL
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOW
AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN AN INCH OR LESS.

GIVEN STRATUS AND MIXY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...HAVE TEMPERED THE DROP
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT HEADING INTO SUNDAY. THE DOWNWARD SWING
MAY NOT BOTTOM OUT UNTIL MID-MORNING ON SUNDAY GIVEN COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT. SUNDAYS TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COLDEST SINCE
JANUARY 12TH...WITH MOST AREAS STUCK IN THE TEENS.

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BROUGHT IN PART BY UPPER
TROUGHING CENTERED JUST WEST OF HUDSON BAY...WILL KEEP PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ONE WAVE
WILL RACE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM BUMPING TEMPERATURES UPWARD A BIT ON MONDAY. GFS IS
SLIGHTLY MORE DEVELOPED WITH THE WAVE...WHILE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH.  A COMPROMISE SOLN WOULD PLACE LOW END POPS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SPOKE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LARGER
SYNOPTIC TROUGH BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY WAVE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALSO BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW REGIME.
GIVEN MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS. SNOW
AMOUNTS WOULD AGAIN BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE BUT WILL LINGER IN PARTS
OF THE AREA...MAINLY EAST CENTRAL SD/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THROUGH
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CARRY MENTION FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT KFSD...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL
BE JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE AIRPORT SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
MODELS SHOWING LINGERING MOISTURE LAYER IN THE UPPER IFR-LOWER MVFR
RANGE FOR KFSD/KSUX THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING...BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE
AS RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER...NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL RE-DEVELOP
INTO A BROKEN CLOUD LAYER AND OPTED TO KEEP IT SCATTERED AT MOST FOR
NOW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KABR 300310 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
910 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS IN EASTERN SD SHRINKING THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED SKY COVER
TO SHOW THIS TREND. ALSO...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE WHERE
THIS CLEARING IS EXPECTED. UPDATED FORECAST.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OF BASICALLY WEST OF A MOBRIDGE TO GANN VALLEY LINE...AND
CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO ERODE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE CWA AS WELL. A FEW LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ALSO BEING REPORTED
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT -> SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE
TONIGHT BEING DISPLACED BY A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WAA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON /POSSIBLE WEAK DOWNSLOPE EVENT ON
FRIDAY?/. THEN...COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE FORECAST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM
GENERATING A LIGHT DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH OF SNOW SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE CWA. GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS SUGGESTING LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH EAST/NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY LOW LEVEL WINDS
OFF A STRONG DRY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...WHICH
TYPICALLY YIELDS DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET
OF THE ATMOS AROUND HERE WHILE SNOW IS BEING PRODUCED ALOFT. THE
GFS IN BUFKIT CURRENTLY SHOWS NO ISSUE SATURATING LOW
LEVELS...WHILE THE NAM12 DOES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL LAYER
OF DRY AIR TO HAVE TO OVERCOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA /MRLS AND
KATY/. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF DRY ENTRAINMENT LEADS TO A POTENTIAL
BUSTED SNOW FORECAST. FOR NOW...THE BAR IS SET AT APPX 60 PERCENT
FOR HIGHEST POPS AND SNOW ACCUMS TOP OUT AT GENERALLY A DUSTING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA TO AS MUCH AS 1.5-2.0 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FORECAST ZONES.



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A 1040MB SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. MODELS STILL INDICATING LIGHT SNOW BEING SQUEEZED OUT OF
WHATEVER AVAILABLE MOISTURE IF LEFT IN THE AIR MASS...SO HAVE
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTION AS
TO PERHAPS THE DRY AIR WITH THE HIGH CONFINING SNOW TO AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH...BUT CAN ADJUST THIS AS TIME APPROACHES.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE TO START OUT NEXT WEEK AS
THERE WILL BE TWO WEAK SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. ONE ON MONDAY AND
ANOTHER QUICKLY FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING
TUESDAY WILL BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
AS WELL. SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A QUICK MOVER SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS...BUT COULD BE SOME IMPACTS NONETHELESS
IF GUSTY WINDS COMBINE WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. OVERALL THE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON THE COLD
SIDE...ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST YOU GO IN THE CWA.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR STRATUS OVER ATY AND ABR ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BREAK UP
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 300310 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
910 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS IN EASTERN SD SHRINKING THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED SKY COVER
TO SHOW THIS TREND. ALSO...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE WHERE
THIS CLEARING IS EXPECTED. UPDATED FORECAST.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OF BASICALLY WEST OF A MOBRIDGE TO GANN VALLEY LINE...AND
CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO ERODE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE CWA AS WELL. A FEW LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ALSO BEING REPORTED
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT -> SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE
TONIGHT BEING DISPLACED BY A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WAA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON /POSSIBLE WEAK DOWNSLOPE EVENT ON
FRIDAY?/. THEN...COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE FORECAST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM
GENERATING A LIGHT DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH OF SNOW SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE CWA. GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS SUGGESTING LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH EAST/NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY LOW LEVEL WINDS
OFF A STRONG DRY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...WHICH
TYPICALLY YIELDS DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET
OF THE ATMOS AROUND HERE WHILE SNOW IS BEING PRODUCED ALOFT. THE
GFS IN BUFKIT CURRENTLY SHOWS NO ISSUE SATURATING LOW
LEVELS...WHILE THE NAM12 DOES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL LAYER
OF DRY AIR TO HAVE TO OVERCOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA /MRLS AND
KATY/. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF DRY ENTRAINMENT LEADS TO A POTENTIAL
BUSTED SNOW FORECAST. FOR NOW...THE BAR IS SET AT APPX 60 PERCENT
FOR HIGHEST POPS AND SNOW ACCUMS TOP OUT AT GENERALLY A DUSTING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA TO AS MUCH AS 1.5-2.0 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FORECAST ZONES.



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A 1040MB SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. MODELS STILL INDICATING LIGHT SNOW BEING SQUEEZED OUT OF
WHATEVER AVAILABLE MOISTURE IF LEFT IN THE AIR MASS...SO HAVE
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTION AS
TO PERHAPS THE DRY AIR WITH THE HIGH CONFINING SNOW TO AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH...BUT CAN ADJUST THIS AS TIME APPROACHES.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE TO START OUT NEXT WEEK AS
THERE WILL BE TWO WEAK SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. ONE ON MONDAY AND
ANOTHER QUICKLY FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING
TUESDAY WILL BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
AS WELL. SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A QUICK MOVER SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS...BUT COULD BE SOME IMPACTS NONETHELESS
IF GUSTY WINDS COMBINE WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. OVERALL THE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON THE COLD
SIDE...ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST YOU GO IN THE CWA.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR STRATUS OVER ATY AND ABR ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BREAK UP
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 292339 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
539 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OF BASICALLY WEST OF A MOBRIDGE TO GANN VALLEY LINE...AND
CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO ERODE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE CWA AS WELL. A FEW LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ALSO BEING REPORTED
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT -> SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE
TONIGHT BEING DISPLACED BY A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WAA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON /POSSIBLE WEAK DOWNSLOPE EVENT ON
FRIDAY?/. THEN...COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE FORECAST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM
GENERATING A LIGHT DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH OF SNOW SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE CWA. GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS SUGGESTING LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH EAST/NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY LOW LEVEL WINDS
OFF A STRONG DRY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...WHICH
TYPICALLY YIELDS DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET
OF THE ATMOS AROUND HERE WHILE SNOW IS BEING PRODUCED ALOFT. THE
GFS IN BUFKIT CURRENTLY SHOWS NO ISSUE SATURATING LOW
LEVELS...WHILE THE NAM12 DOES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL LAYER
OF DRY AIR TO HAVE TO OVERCOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA /MRLS AND
KATY/. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF DRY ENTRAINMENT LEADS TO A POTENTIAL
BUSTED SNOW FORECAST. FOR NOW...THE BAR IS SET AT APPX 60 PERCENT
FOR HIGHEST POPS AND SNOW ACCUMS TOP OUT AT GENERALLY A DUSTING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA TO AS MUCH AS 1.5-2.0 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FORECAST ZONES.



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A 1040MB SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. MODELS STILL INDICATING LIGHT SNOW BEING SQUEEZED OUT OF
WHATEVER AVAILABLE MOISTURE IF LEFT IN THE AIR MASS...SO HAVE
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTION AS
TO PERHAPS THE DRY AIR WITH THE HIGH CONFINING SNOW TO AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH...BUT CAN ADJUST THIS AS TIME APPROACHES.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE TO START OUT NEXT WEEK AS
THERE WILL BE TWO WEAK SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. ONE ON MONDAY AND
ANOTHER QUICKLY FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING
TUESDAY WILL BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
AS WELL. SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A QUICK MOVER SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS...BUT COULD BE SOME IMPACTS NONETHELESS
IF GUSTY WINDS COMBINE WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. OVERALL THE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON THE COLD
SIDE...ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST YOU GO IN THE CWA.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR STRATUS OVER ATY AND ABR ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BREAK UP
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 292336
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
436 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 117 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SPLIT FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH FAST MILD NW
FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT WAA WITH A THERMAL RIDGE TIMING OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY. WEAK FORCING AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE LL MOISTURE
WILL SUPPORT DRY WX WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF CIRRUS
LOOK POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM A DEEP SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST GRIDS...SAVE FOR AN UPTICK IN HIGHS FRIDAY. THERMAL RIDGE
TIMING WITH PEAK HEATING/LACK OF SNOW COVER/AND DECENT TO STRONG
INSOLATION SUPPORTS A TREND TO THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S AT MOST
AREAS. A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WITH AN ASSOCIATED LL
ARCTIC BUBBLE WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PROVINCES. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD
BIAS TO THE NEARLY STALLED LL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...DIRECTING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SAT MORNING. CURRENTLY...GUIDANCE SUGGEST ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE
MORE INTO THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
TRACK RECORD OF THESE TYPES OF FEATURES IN THE AREA...AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL/STRONGER PUSH IS LIKELY. HAVE ADJUSTED FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS
FOR ANTICIPATION OF THIS...WITH A DOWNTREND ACROSS NW SD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 117 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A UNSETTLED AND COLDER PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES AND THE
TIMING/INTENSITY OF SHORTWAVES...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME
DISCREPANCIES.

A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY...
BRINGING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW
DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY MORNING. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST PLACES.
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 INCHES OR SO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL LIKELY MEANDER INTO OR ACROSS THE CWA AT TIMES. A
BRIEF WARMUP IS STILL EXPECTED ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE. THE WAVE LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY...SO
INCREASED POPS FOR TUESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL AGAIN DIVE SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE ON EXACTLY HOW FAR
WEST THE COLDEST AIR WILL REACH. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE WARMER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 292336
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
436 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 117 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SPLIT FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH FAST MILD NW
FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT WAA WITH A THERMAL RIDGE TIMING OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY. WEAK FORCING AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE LL MOISTURE
WILL SUPPORT DRY WX WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF CIRRUS
LOOK POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM A DEEP SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST GRIDS...SAVE FOR AN UPTICK IN HIGHS FRIDAY. THERMAL RIDGE
TIMING WITH PEAK HEATING/LACK OF SNOW COVER/AND DECENT TO STRONG
INSOLATION SUPPORTS A TREND TO THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S AT MOST
AREAS. A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WITH AN ASSOCIATED LL
ARCTIC BUBBLE WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PROVINCES. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD
BIAS TO THE NEARLY STALLED LL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...DIRECTING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SAT MORNING. CURRENTLY...GUIDANCE SUGGEST ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE
MORE INTO THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
TRACK RECORD OF THESE TYPES OF FEATURES IN THE AREA...AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL/STRONGER PUSH IS LIKELY. HAVE ADJUSTED FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS
FOR ANTICIPATION OF THIS...WITH A DOWNTREND ACROSS NW SD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 117 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A UNSETTLED AND COLDER PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES AND THE
TIMING/INTENSITY OF SHORTWAVES...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME
DISCREPANCIES.

A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY...
BRINGING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW
DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY MORNING. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST PLACES.
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 INCHES OR SO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL LIKELY MEANDER INTO OR ACROSS THE CWA AT TIMES. A
BRIEF WARMUP IS STILL EXPECTED ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE. THE WAVE LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY...SO
INCREASED POPS FOR TUESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL AGAIN DIVE SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE ON EXACTLY HOW FAR
WEST THE COLDEST AIR WILL REACH. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE WARMER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...HELGESON






000
FXUS63 KFSD 292315
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
515 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS MIXING DIES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. HAVE COOLED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST
WHERE RADIATIVE CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD.

MODELS HINT AT A BAND OF CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
NEBRASKA BORDER AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY.  THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...WHICH MAY IMPACT
WARMING SOME. REGARDLESS...925 HPA TEMPS WARM 7-10 C ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WITH A FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST MIXING
WINDS...HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE NOW PRESENTING THEMSELVES THROUGH
THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST CHANCES
ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH MODELS TRENDING A BIT
SLOWER ON THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION. PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED WITH
THE MAJORITY OF HIGHER QPF FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE CWA. THERE STILL
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOW
AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN AN INCH OR LESS.

GIVEN STRATUS AND MIXY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...HAVE TEMPERED THE DROP
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT HEADING INTO SUNDAY. THE DOWNWARD SWING
MAY NOT BOTTOM OUT UNTIL MID-MORNING ON SUNDAY GIVEN COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT. SUNDAYS TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COLDEST SINCE
JANUARY 12TH...WITH MOST AREAS STUCK IN THE TEENS.

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BROUGHT IN PART BY UPPER
TROUGHING CENTERED JUST WEST OF HUDSON BAY...WILL KEEP PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ONE WAVE
WILL RACE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM BUMPING TEMPERATURES UPWARD A BIT ON MONDAY. GFS IS
SLIGHTLY MORE DEVELOPED WITH THE WAVE...WHILE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH.  A COMPROMISE SOLN WOULD PLACE LOW END POPS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SPOKE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LARGER
SYNOPTIC TROUGH BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY WAVE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALSO BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW REGIME.
GIVEN MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS. SNOW
AMOUNTS WOULD AGAIN BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS PERSISTING ALONG/EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...
WITH PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL
OCCUR. HAVE SLOWED CLEARING A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT
STILL EXPECT KHON/KSUX TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND KFSD BY MIDNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 292315
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
515 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS MIXING DIES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. HAVE COOLED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST
WHERE RADIATIVE CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD.

MODELS HINT AT A BAND OF CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
NEBRASKA BORDER AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY.  THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...WHICH MAY IMPACT
WARMING SOME. REGARDLESS...925 HPA TEMPS WARM 7-10 C ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WITH A FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST MIXING
WINDS...HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE NOW PRESENTING THEMSELVES THROUGH
THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST CHANCES
ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH MODELS TRENDING A BIT
SLOWER ON THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION. PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED WITH
THE MAJORITY OF HIGHER QPF FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE CWA. THERE STILL
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOW
AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN AN INCH OR LESS.

GIVEN STRATUS AND MIXY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...HAVE TEMPERED THE DROP
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT HEADING INTO SUNDAY. THE DOWNWARD SWING
MAY NOT BOTTOM OUT UNTIL MID-MORNING ON SUNDAY GIVEN COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT. SUNDAYS TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COLDEST SINCE
JANUARY 12TH...WITH MOST AREAS STUCK IN THE TEENS.

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BROUGHT IN PART BY UPPER
TROUGHING CENTERED JUST WEST OF HUDSON BAY...WILL KEEP PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ONE WAVE
WILL RACE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM BUMPING TEMPERATURES UPWARD A BIT ON MONDAY. GFS IS
SLIGHTLY MORE DEVELOPED WITH THE WAVE...WHILE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH.  A COMPROMISE SOLN WOULD PLACE LOW END POPS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SPOKE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LARGER
SYNOPTIC TROUGH BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY WAVE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALSO BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW REGIME.
GIVEN MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS. SNOW
AMOUNTS WOULD AGAIN BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS PERSISTING ALONG/EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...
WITH PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL
OCCUR. HAVE SLOWED CLEARING A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT
STILL EXPECT KHON/KSUX TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND KFSD BY MIDNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 292315
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
515 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS MIXING DIES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. HAVE COOLED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST
WHERE RADIATIVE CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD.

MODELS HINT AT A BAND OF CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
NEBRASKA BORDER AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY.  THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...WHICH MAY IMPACT
WARMING SOME. REGARDLESS...925 HPA TEMPS WARM 7-10 C ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WITH A FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST MIXING
WINDS...HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE NOW PRESENTING THEMSELVES THROUGH
THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST CHANCES
ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH MODELS TRENDING A BIT
SLOWER ON THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION. PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED WITH
THE MAJORITY OF HIGHER QPF FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE CWA. THERE STILL
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOW
AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN AN INCH OR LESS.

GIVEN STRATUS AND MIXY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...HAVE TEMPERED THE DROP
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT HEADING INTO SUNDAY. THE DOWNWARD SWING
MAY NOT BOTTOM OUT UNTIL MID-MORNING ON SUNDAY GIVEN COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT. SUNDAYS TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COLDEST SINCE
JANUARY 12TH...WITH MOST AREAS STUCK IN THE TEENS.

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BROUGHT IN PART BY UPPER
TROUGHING CENTERED JUST WEST OF HUDSON BAY...WILL KEEP PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ONE WAVE
WILL RACE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM BUMPING TEMPERATURES UPWARD A BIT ON MONDAY. GFS IS
SLIGHTLY MORE DEVELOPED WITH THE WAVE...WHILE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH.  A COMPROMISE SOLN WOULD PLACE LOW END POPS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SPOKE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LARGER
SYNOPTIC TROUGH BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY WAVE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALSO BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW REGIME.
GIVEN MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS. SNOW
AMOUNTS WOULD AGAIN BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS PERSISTING ALONG/EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...
WITH PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL
OCCUR. HAVE SLOWED CLEARING A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT
STILL EXPECT KHON/KSUX TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND KFSD BY MIDNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 292315
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
515 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS MIXING DIES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. HAVE COOLED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST
WHERE RADIATIVE CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD.

MODELS HINT AT A BAND OF CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
NEBRASKA BORDER AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY.  THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...WHICH MAY IMPACT
WARMING SOME. REGARDLESS...925 HPA TEMPS WARM 7-10 C ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WITH A FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST MIXING
WINDS...HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE NOW PRESENTING THEMSELVES THROUGH
THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST CHANCES
ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH MODELS TRENDING A BIT
SLOWER ON THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION. PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED WITH
THE MAJORITY OF HIGHER QPF FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE CWA. THERE STILL
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOW
AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN AN INCH OR LESS.

GIVEN STRATUS AND MIXY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...HAVE TEMPERED THE DROP
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT HEADING INTO SUNDAY. THE DOWNWARD SWING
MAY NOT BOTTOM OUT UNTIL MID-MORNING ON SUNDAY GIVEN COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT. SUNDAYS TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COLDEST SINCE
JANUARY 12TH...WITH MOST AREAS STUCK IN THE TEENS.

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BROUGHT IN PART BY UPPER
TROUGHING CENTERED JUST WEST OF HUDSON BAY...WILL KEEP PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ONE WAVE
WILL RACE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM BUMPING TEMPERATURES UPWARD A BIT ON MONDAY. GFS IS
SLIGHTLY MORE DEVELOPED WITH THE WAVE...WHILE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH.  A COMPROMISE SOLN WOULD PLACE LOW END POPS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SPOKE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LARGER
SYNOPTIC TROUGH BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY WAVE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALSO BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW REGIME.
GIVEN MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS. SNOW
AMOUNTS WOULD AGAIN BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS PERSISTING ALONG/EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...
WITH PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL
OCCUR. HAVE SLOWED CLEARING A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT
STILL EXPECT KHON/KSUX TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND KFSD BY MIDNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KABR 292030
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
230 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OF BASICALLY WEST OF A MOBRIDGE TO GANN VALLEY LINE...AND
CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO ERODE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE CWA AS WELL. A FEW LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ALSO BEING REPORTED
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT -> SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE
TONIGHT BEING DISPLACED BY A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WAA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON /POSSIBLE WEAK DOWNSLOPE EVENT ON
FRIDAY?/. THEN...COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE FORECAST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM
GENERATING A LIGHT DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH OF SNOW SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE CWA. GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS SUGGESTING LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH EAST/NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY LOW LEVEL WINDS
OFF A STRONG DRY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...WHICH
TYPICALLY YIELDS DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET
OF THE ATMOS AROUND HERE WHILE SNOW IS BEING PRODUCED ALOFT. THE
GFS IN BUFKIT CURRENTLY SHOWS NO ISSUE SATURATING LOW
LEVELS...WHILE THE NAM12 DOES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL LAYER
OF DRY AIR TO HAVE TO OVERCOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA /MRLS AND
KATY/. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF DRY ENTRAINMENT LEADS TO A POTENTIAL
BUSTED SNOW FORECAST. FOR NOW...THE BAR IS SET AT APPX 60 PERCENT
FOR HIGHEST POPS AND SNOW ACCUMS TOP OUT AT GENERALLY A DUSTING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA TO AS MUCH AS 1.5-2.0 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FORECAST ZONES.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A 1040MB SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. MODELS STILL INDICATING LIGHT SNOW BEING SQUEEZED OUT OF
WHATEVER AVAILABLE MOISTURE IF LEFT IN THE AIR MASS...SO HAVE
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTION AS
TO PERHAPS THE DRY AIR WITH THE HIGH CONFINING SNOW TO AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH...BUT CAN ADJUST THIS AS TIME APPROACHES.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE TO START OUT NEXT WEEK AS
THERE WILL BE TWO WEAK SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. ONE ON MONDAY AND
ANOTHER QUICKLY FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING
TUESDAY WILL BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
AS WELL. SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A QUICK MOVER SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS...BUT COULD BE SOME IMPACTS NONETHELESS
IF GUSTY WINDS COMBINE WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. OVERALL THE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON THE COLD
SIDE...ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST YOU GO IN THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KPIR/KMBG...MVFR CIGS AFFECTING THESE TWO SITES AT 18Z...BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY SEE CIGS SCATTER OUT FIRST AT KPIR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS KMBG BY LATE AFTERNOON. THEN...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD.

KABR/KATY...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
LIKELY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY HERE AS TO
WHEN CLOUDS EVENTUALLY SCATTER/CLEAR OUT...BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL
NOT BE UNTIL SOMETIME LATER IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
TAF FORECAST SOMEWHAT LOW SO WILL LIKELY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLEARING TRENDS LATER AFTER SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA ANALYSIS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 292030
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
230 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OF BASICALLY WEST OF A MOBRIDGE TO GANN VALLEY LINE...AND
CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO ERODE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE CWA AS WELL. A FEW LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ALSO BEING REPORTED
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT -> SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE
TONIGHT BEING DISPLACED BY A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WAA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON /POSSIBLE WEAK DOWNSLOPE EVENT ON
FRIDAY?/. THEN...COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE FORECAST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM
GENERATING A LIGHT DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH OF SNOW SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE CWA. GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS SUGGESTING LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH EAST/NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY LOW LEVEL WINDS
OFF A STRONG DRY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...WHICH
TYPICALLY YIELDS DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET
OF THE ATMOS AROUND HERE WHILE SNOW IS BEING PRODUCED ALOFT. THE
GFS IN BUFKIT CURRENTLY SHOWS NO ISSUE SATURATING LOW
LEVELS...WHILE THE NAM12 DOES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL LAYER
OF DRY AIR TO HAVE TO OVERCOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA /MRLS AND
KATY/. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF DRY ENTRAINMENT LEADS TO A POTENTIAL
BUSTED SNOW FORECAST. FOR NOW...THE BAR IS SET AT APPX 60 PERCENT
FOR HIGHEST POPS AND SNOW ACCUMS TOP OUT AT GENERALLY A DUSTING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA TO AS MUCH AS 1.5-2.0 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FORECAST ZONES.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A 1040MB SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. MODELS STILL INDICATING LIGHT SNOW BEING SQUEEZED OUT OF
WHATEVER AVAILABLE MOISTURE IF LEFT IN THE AIR MASS...SO HAVE
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTION AS
TO PERHAPS THE DRY AIR WITH THE HIGH CONFINING SNOW TO AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH...BUT CAN ADJUST THIS AS TIME APPROACHES.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE TO START OUT NEXT WEEK AS
THERE WILL BE TWO WEAK SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. ONE ON MONDAY AND
ANOTHER QUICKLY FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING
TUESDAY WILL BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
AS WELL. SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A QUICK MOVER SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS...BUT COULD BE SOME IMPACTS NONETHELESS
IF GUSTY WINDS COMBINE WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. OVERALL THE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON THE COLD
SIDE...ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST YOU GO IN THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KPIR/KMBG...MVFR CIGS AFFECTING THESE TWO SITES AT 18Z...BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY SEE CIGS SCATTER OUT FIRST AT KPIR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS KMBG BY LATE AFTERNOON. THEN...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD.

KABR/KATY...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
LIKELY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY HERE AS TO
WHEN CLOUDS EVENTUALLY SCATTER/CLEAR OUT...BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL
NOT BE UNTIL SOMETIME LATER IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
TAF FORECAST SOMEWHAT LOW SO WILL LIKELY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLEARING TRENDS LATER AFTER SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA ANALYSIS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 292030
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
230 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OF BASICALLY WEST OF A MOBRIDGE TO GANN VALLEY LINE...AND
CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO ERODE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE CWA AS WELL. A FEW LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ALSO BEING REPORTED
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT -> SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE
TONIGHT BEING DISPLACED BY A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WAA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON /POSSIBLE WEAK DOWNSLOPE EVENT ON
FRIDAY?/. THEN...COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE FORECAST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM
GENERATING A LIGHT DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH OF SNOW SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE CWA. GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS SUGGESTING LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH EAST/NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY LOW LEVEL WINDS
OFF A STRONG DRY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...WHICH
TYPICALLY YIELDS DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET
OF THE ATMOS AROUND HERE WHILE SNOW IS BEING PRODUCED ALOFT. THE
GFS IN BUFKIT CURRENTLY SHOWS NO ISSUE SATURATING LOW
LEVELS...WHILE THE NAM12 DOES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL LAYER
OF DRY AIR TO HAVE TO OVERCOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA /MRLS AND
KATY/. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF DRY ENTRAINMENT LEADS TO A POTENTIAL
BUSTED SNOW FORECAST. FOR NOW...THE BAR IS SET AT APPX 60 PERCENT
FOR HIGHEST POPS AND SNOW ACCUMS TOP OUT AT GENERALLY A DUSTING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA TO AS MUCH AS 1.5-2.0 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FORECAST ZONES.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A 1040MB SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. MODELS STILL INDICATING LIGHT SNOW BEING SQUEEZED OUT OF
WHATEVER AVAILABLE MOISTURE IF LEFT IN THE AIR MASS...SO HAVE
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTION AS
TO PERHAPS THE DRY AIR WITH THE HIGH CONFINING SNOW TO AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH...BUT CAN ADJUST THIS AS TIME APPROACHES.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE TO START OUT NEXT WEEK AS
THERE WILL BE TWO WEAK SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. ONE ON MONDAY AND
ANOTHER QUICKLY FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING
TUESDAY WILL BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
AS WELL. SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A QUICK MOVER SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS...BUT COULD BE SOME IMPACTS NONETHELESS
IF GUSTY WINDS COMBINE WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. OVERALL THE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON THE COLD
SIDE...ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST YOU GO IN THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KPIR/KMBG...MVFR CIGS AFFECTING THESE TWO SITES AT 18Z...BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY SEE CIGS SCATTER OUT FIRST AT KPIR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS KMBG BY LATE AFTERNOON. THEN...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD.

KABR/KATY...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
LIKELY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY HERE AS TO
WHEN CLOUDS EVENTUALLY SCATTER/CLEAR OUT...BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL
NOT BE UNTIL SOMETIME LATER IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
TAF FORECAST SOMEWHAT LOW SO WILL LIKELY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLEARING TRENDS LATER AFTER SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA ANALYSIS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 292030
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
230 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OF BASICALLY WEST OF A MOBRIDGE TO GANN VALLEY LINE...AND
CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO ERODE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE CWA AS WELL. A FEW LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ALSO BEING REPORTED
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT -> SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE
TONIGHT BEING DISPLACED BY A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WAA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON /POSSIBLE WEAK DOWNSLOPE EVENT ON
FRIDAY?/. THEN...COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE FORECAST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM
GENERATING A LIGHT DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH OF SNOW SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE CWA. GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS SUGGESTING LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH EAST/NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY LOW LEVEL WINDS
OFF A STRONG DRY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...WHICH
TYPICALLY YIELDS DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET
OF THE ATMOS AROUND HERE WHILE SNOW IS BEING PRODUCED ALOFT. THE
GFS IN BUFKIT CURRENTLY SHOWS NO ISSUE SATURATING LOW
LEVELS...WHILE THE NAM12 DOES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL LAYER
OF DRY AIR TO HAVE TO OVERCOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA /MRLS AND
KATY/. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF DRY ENTRAINMENT LEADS TO A POTENTIAL
BUSTED SNOW FORECAST. FOR NOW...THE BAR IS SET AT APPX 60 PERCENT
FOR HIGHEST POPS AND SNOW ACCUMS TOP OUT AT GENERALLY A DUSTING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA TO AS MUCH AS 1.5-2.0 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FORECAST ZONES.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A 1040MB SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. MODELS STILL INDICATING LIGHT SNOW BEING SQUEEZED OUT OF
WHATEVER AVAILABLE MOISTURE IF LEFT IN THE AIR MASS...SO HAVE
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTION AS
TO PERHAPS THE DRY AIR WITH THE HIGH CONFINING SNOW TO AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH...BUT CAN ADJUST THIS AS TIME APPROACHES.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE TO START OUT NEXT WEEK AS
THERE WILL BE TWO WEAK SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. ONE ON MONDAY AND
ANOTHER QUICKLY FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING
TUESDAY WILL BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
AS WELL. SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A QUICK MOVER SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS...BUT COULD BE SOME IMPACTS NONETHELESS
IF GUSTY WINDS COMBINE WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. OVERALL THE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON THE COLD
SIDE...ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST YOU GO IN THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KPIR/KMBG...MVFR CIGS AFFECTING THESE TWO SITES AT 18Z...BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY SEE CIGS SCATTER OUT FIRST AT KPIR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS KMBG BY LATE AFTERNOON. THEN...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD.

KABR/KATY...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
LIKELY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY HERE AS TO
WHEN CLOUDS EVENTUALLY SCATTER/CLEAR OUT...BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL
NOT BE UNTIL SOMETIME LATER IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
TAF FORECAST SOMEWHAT LOW SO WILL LIKELY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLEARING TRENDS LATER AFTER SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA ANALYSIS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 292030
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
230 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS MIXING DIES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. HAVE COOLED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST
WHERE RADIATIVE CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD.

MODELS HINT AT A BAND OF CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
NEBRASKA BORDER AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY.  THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...WHICH MAY IMPACT
WARMING SOME. REGARDLESS...925 HPA TEMPS WARM 7-10 C ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WITH A FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST MIXING
WINDS...HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE NOW PRESENTING THEMSELVES THROUGH
THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST CHANCES
ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH MODELS TRENDING A BIT
SLOWER ON THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION. PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENERGY SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED WITH
THE MAJORITY OF HIGHER QPF FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE CWA. THERE STILL
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOW
AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN AN INCH OR LESS.

GIVEN STRATUS AND MIXY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...HAVE TEMPERED THE DROP
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT HEADING INTO SUNDAY. THE DOWNWARD SWING
MAY NOT BOTTOM OUT UNTIL MID-MORNING ON SUNDAY GIVEN COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT. SUNDAYS TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COLDEST SINCE
JANUARY 12TH...WITH MOST AREAS STUCK IN THE TEENS.

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BROUGHT IN PART BY UPPER
TROUGHING CENTERED JUST WEST OF HUDSON BAY...WILL KEEP PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ONE WAVE
WILL RACE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM BUMPING TEMPERATURES UPWARD A BIT ON MONDAY. GFS IS
SLIGHTLY MORE DEVELOPED WITH THE WAVE...WHILE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH.  A COMPROMISE SOLN WOULD PLACE LOW END POPS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SPOKE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LARGER
SYNOPTIC TROUGH BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY WAVE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALSO BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW REGIME.
GIVEN MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS. SNOW
AMOUNTS WOULD AGAIN BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A STRATUS
LAYER DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO
MIXING...BUT AM UNCERTAIN OF THE HEIGHT AT THIS POINT. FOR
NOW...FOLLOWED LAV GUIDANCE AND PUT IT AT THE TOP OF MVFR RANGE.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KUNR 292018
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
118 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 117 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SPLIT FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH FAST MILD NW
FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT WAA WITH A THERMAL RIDGE TIMING OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY. WEAK FORCING AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE LL MOISTURE
WILL SUPPORT DRY WX WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF CIRRUS
LOOK POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM A DEEP SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST GRIDS...SAVE AN UPTICK IN HIGHS FRIDAY. THERMAL RIDGE
TIMING WITH PEAK HEATING/LACK OF SNOW COVER/AND DECENT TO STRONG
INSOLATION SUPPORTS A TREND TO THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S AT MOST
AREAS. A STRONGER NORTHER STREAM IMPULSE WITH AN ASSOCIATED LL
ARCTIC BUBBLE WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PROVINCES. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD
BIAS TO THE NEARLY STALLED LL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...DIRECTING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SAT MORNING. CURRENTLY...GUIDANCE SUGGEST ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE
MORE INTO THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
TRACK RECORD OF THESE TYPES OF FEATURES IN THE AREA...AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL/STRONGER PUSH IS LIKELY. HAVE ADJUSTED FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS
FOR ANTICIPATION OF THIS...WITH A DOWNTREND ACROSS NW SD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 117 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A UNSETTLED AND COLDER PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES AND THE
TIMING/INTENSITY OF SHORTWAVES...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME
DISCREPANCIES.

A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY...
BRINGING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW
DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY MORNING. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST PLACES.
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 INCHES OR SO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL LIKELY MEANDER INTO OR ACROSS THE CWA AT TIMES. A
BRIEF WARMUP IS STILL EXPECTED ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE. THE WAVE LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY...SO
INCREASED POPS FOR TUESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL AGAIN DIVE SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE ON EXACTLY HOW FAR
WEST THE COLDEST AIR WILL REACH. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE WARMER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 117 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE






000
FXUS63 KUNR 292018
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
118 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 117 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SPLIT FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH FAST MILD NW
FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT WAA WITH A THERMAL RIDGE TIMING OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY. WEAK FORCING AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE LL MOISTURE
WILL SUPPORT DRY WX WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF CIRRUS
LOOK POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM A DEEP SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST GRIDS...SAVE AN UPTICK IN HIGHS FRIDAY. THERMAL RIDGE
TIMING WITH PEAK HEATING/LACK OF SNOW COVER/AND DECENT TO STRONG
INSOLATION SUPPORTS A TREND TO THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S AT MOST
AREAS. A STRONGER NORTHER STREAM IMPULSE WITH AN ASSOCIATED LL
ARCTIC BUBBLE WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PROVINCES. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD
BIAS TO THE NEARLY STALLED LL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...DIRECTING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SAT MORNING. CURRENTLY...GUIDANCE SUGGEST ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE
MORE INTO THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
TRACK RECORD OF THESE TYPES OF FEATURES IN THE AREA...AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL/STRONGER PUSH IS LIKELY. HAVE ADJUSTED FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS
FOR ANTICIPATION OF THIS...WITH A DOWNTREND ACROSS NW SD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 117 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A UNSETTLED AND COLDER PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES AND THE
TIMING/INTENSITY OF SHORTWAVES...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME
DISCREPANCIES.

A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY...
BRINGING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW
DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY MORNING. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST PLACES.
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 INCHES OR SO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL LIKELY MEANDER INTO OR ACROSS THE CWA AT TIMES. A
BRIEF WARMUP IS STILL EXPECTED ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE. THE WAVE LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY...SO
INCREASED POPS FOR TUESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL AGAIN DIVE SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE ON EXACTLY HOW FAR
WEST THE COLDEST AIR WILL REACH. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE WARMER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 117 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities