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000
FXUS63 KUNR 020947
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
347 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS BROAD TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
CLOSED LOW SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CLOUD COVER MOVING IN ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS.

TODAY...NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH UTAH. SURFACE TROF
ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS TODAY...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE TROF SLIDES
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TODAY...MAINLY IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WEAK
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROF COULD PRODUCE A FEW
SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING.

TONIGHT...MAIN UPPER TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO COLORADO. SURFACE TROF SHIFTS EAST QUICKLY THIS
EVENING WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF BY EARLY EVENING. IT WILL BE A
COOL NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.

FRIDAY...UPPER TROF SHIFTS EAST WITH RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...AND LESS WIND.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING
EASTER WEEKEND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES
AND SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL REDEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 35KTS AT
TIMES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON



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000
FXUS63 KABR 020855
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
355 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ENSURE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TODAY WHICH COULD FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVELS. DUE TO THE
MARGINALITY OF WINDS...WILL NOT ISSUE A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. THE
AIR MASS WILL ALSO STAY RATHER DRY WITH MIN RH VALUES RANGING FROM
20 TO 30 PERCENT. ONCE AGAIN...VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT
WAS ALREADY ISSUED YESTERDAY. EVEN THOUGH RH IS TECHNICALLY NOT
LOW ENOUGH TO REACH CRITERIA FOR MOST PLACES...THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS ALONE AND THE DRYNESS OF FUELS PROMPTS THE WARNING. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA
YESTERDAY WITH NEARLY IDENTICAL WINDS AND RH.

SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RATHER CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
USED TO. MANY LOCATIONS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY
FRIDAY MORNING. STILL WATCHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVING EAST ACROSS MAINLY
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK A BIT WARMER FOR SATURDAY AND HAVE
INCREASED HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES. EC AND GFS SHOWING A WARM
FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DECENT WARMING NOTED AT 925/850 MB.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

THE MODELS...EC...GFS AND GEM ALL SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE US THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS ALL SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
SENDING OFF SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE MAIN
TROUGH THEN IS SHOWN TO LIFT OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS OUR
REGION. THUS...IT IS STILL LOOKING BETTER THAT WE WILL RECEIVE
SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...IT LOOKS
LIKE OUR CWA WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S AFTER SUNDAY
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THE EC GUIDANCE WAS COOLER
THAN THE GFS/MEX GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS OR HIGHER AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267>273.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KABR 020855
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
355 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ENSURE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TODAY WHICH COULD FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVELS. DUE TO THE
MARGINALITY OF WINDS...WILL NOT ISSUE A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. THE
AIR MASS WILL ALSO STAY RATHER DRY WITH MIN RH VALUES RANGING FROM
20 TO 30 PERCENT. ONCE AGAIN...VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT
WAS ALREADY ISSUED YESTERDAY. EVEN THOUGH RH IS TECHNICALLY NOT
LOW ENOUGH TO REACH CRITERIA FOR MOST PLACES...THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS ALONE AND THE DRYNESS OF FUELS PROMPTS THE WARNING. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA
YESTERDAY WITH NEARLY IDENTICAL WINDS AND RH.

SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RATHER CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
USED TO. MANY LOCATIONS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY
FRIDAY MORNING. STILL WATCHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVING EAST ACROSS MAINLY
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK A BIT WARMER FOR SATURDAY AND HAVE
INCREASED HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES. EC AND GFS SHOWING A WARM
FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DECENT WARMING NOTED AT 925/850 MB.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

THE MODELS...EC...GFS AND GEM ALL SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE US THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS ALL SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
SENDING OFF SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE MAIN
TROUGH THEN IS SHOWN TO LIFT OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS OUR
REGION. THUS...IT IS STILL LOOKING BETTER THAT WE WILL RECEIVE
SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...IT LOOKS
LIKE OUR CWA WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S AFTER SUNDAY
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THE EC GUIDANCE WAS COOLER
THAN THE GFS/MEX GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS OR HIGHER AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267>273.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR






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000
FXUS63 KFSD 020834
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
334 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

A COOLER DAY LOOKS TO BE ON TAP BEHIND THE EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO THE EAST. WILL HAVE DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS NEBRASKA
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH OUR
NORTH WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE TIGHTER AND MIXED LAYER
WINDS ARE STRONGER. WITH VERY DEEP MIXING TODAY...STAYED BELOW
GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS...AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
THE WINDS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHICH WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN A SEPARATE DISCUSSION. WITH THE GOOD MIXING IT WILL
STILL BE A FAIRLY MILD DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING FROM NEAR 60
IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 60S THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SCOOTS ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT...AND
MODELS ARE STILL SPLIT ON WHETHER ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. STILL APPEARS THAT THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA...BUT DID INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND NEBRASKA
ZONES LATE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLD AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

FRIDAY WILL EXHIBIT OUR EVER PRESENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WELL MIXED...
DRY DAY. HOWEVER WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT PROJECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG
AT 850MB COMPARED TO SOME OTHER DAYS WE HAVE HAD RECENTLY. FOR
INSTANCE 25 KNOTS IS FORECAST OFF OF THE VARIOUS MODELS AT 18Z IN
OUR EASTERN ZONES AT 850MB...MUCH LIGHTER ALONG AND WEST OF I 29.
BUT WITH THE HIGH SETTLING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THE WINDS SHOULD NOT INCREASE AFTER 18Z AND MAY IN FACT
NOTCH SLOWLY DOWN A BIT. FOR HIGHS...MIXED TEMPERATURES TO JUST
ABOVE 850MB BUT AT ANY RATE IT WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER...MORE
SEASONAL WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE TRICKY AND
WILL BE ELEVATED DEPENDENT WITH A LIGHT...DRY SURFACE FLOW. MAY NOT
HAVE GONE QUITE CHILLY ENOUGH AT SOME LOCATIONS SUCH AS SIOUX
CITY... SPENCER...HURON AND CHAMBERLAIN. BUT THERE IS NO RISK FOR
PRECIP AND IT IS SO DRY IT MAY NOT EVEN FROST.

ON SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD...THE QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. THE
GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN SHOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE CLIPPING SOUTHWEST
MN DURING THE AFTERNOON DRAINING DOWN FROM WESTERN ONTARIO. WENT
WITH A NAM AND ECMWF COMPROMISE WHICH PLACES THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. 850MB TEMPERATURES REALLY WARM UP BIG TIME ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SO CONTINUED THE TREND OF RAISING HIGHS
FOR SATURDAY. ANY GUIDANCE VALUES WHICH ARE NOT BIAS CORRECTED WERE
IMMEDIATELY TOSSED...AND PREFERRED THE WARMEST BIAS CORRECTED VALUES
SUCH AS MOS AND THE ECMWF. THEREFORE HAVE 70 TO 75 DEGREES FOR THE
MO RIVER VALLEY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY NIGHT IS INTERESTING IN THAT ALL OF THE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACCAS TSRA DEVELOP IN PARTS OF OUR AREA EAST
OF I 29 WHERE A STOUT 45 TO 55 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IS FEEDING IN FROM
THE SOUTH INTO THE WARM FRONT PROVIDING LOCALIZED LIFT. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS FAIRLY DECENT IN THOSE AREAS BUT NOT SURE IF THAT IS
A FEEDBACK FROM THE MODEL PRODUCED CONVECTION OR NOT. MID LAPSE
RATES ARE PRETTY UNSTABLE HOWEVER.

SUNDAY IS ANOTHER PROBLEMATIC DAY FOR HIGHS IN THAT THERE IS QUITE A
DIFFERENCE IN HOW AGGRESSIVE THE MODELS ARE IN PLUNGING THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT SOUTHWARD. THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS AND POSITIONS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO SIOUX CITY BY
00Z MONDAY. THE GEM GLOBAL BARELY MOVES IT AND THE GFS IS IN
BETWEEN. NOTING THIS...OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES ALONG HIGHWAY 14 MAY
HAVE TROUBLE GETTING OUT OF THE 50S. BUT CONVERSELY...THE WARM BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES ONCE AGAIN LOOK KING FOR OUR SOUTH...AND HAVE SIOUX
CITY CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES.

THEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY A WAVY PATTERN FINALLY ENSUES...AND THIS
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FOR A WHILE NOW AS
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES. STILL LOOKS LIKE A
CHANCE FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ELEVATED TSRA IN THE SOUTHEAST QUAD OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. MONDAY STILL COULD BE QUITE A DAMP AND CHILLY DAY FOR
A CHANGE...MUCH NEEDED IF IT PANS OUT. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS A
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE OVERRIDING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PLACING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER THE GEM GLOBAL IS
FURTHER NORTH WITH IT. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT CHILLY AND THE
SUPERBLEND LOOKED TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL PANS OUT.
THEREFORE BLENDED THE MUCH COOLER ECMWF INTO THE SUPERBLEND ON
MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NOW LOOK DRY BEHIND THE WAVE PASSAGE
BUT WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SIOUX CITY FOR THE UPCOMING 1 TO 2 HOURS
OTHERWISE LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THE LOCAL
AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOWL FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. INCREASING MID-
UPR LVL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. LOW DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEEP MIXING...YIELDING AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT THROUGH
MOST AREAS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH WILL RESULT IN AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR THOSE AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE. ELECTED TO KEEP THE NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA ZONES OUT OF A RED FLAG WARNING AS WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER IN THOSE AREAS...AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT SOME OF THE AREAS
IN THOSE FIRE WEATHER ZONES RECEIVED RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

THE LOW HUMIDITY CONTINUES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...15 TO 25
PERCENT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR MIXING POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY NOTING A NORTHWEST FLOW. BUT AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD MAXIMIZE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY...THEN NOTCH DOWN GRADUALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER OUR AREA. SATURDAY WILL
SEE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS...BUT AGAIN WIND
SPEEDS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY STRONG. THIS SHOULD KEEP US BELOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA BOTH DAYS...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER GIVEN DRY FUELS AND LOW HUMIDITY. RELIEF...AT LEAST
TEMPORARY...WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THIS AREA BY MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ900.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...DUX
FIRE WEATHER...MJ/JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 020834
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
334 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

A COOLER DAY LOOKS TO BE ON TAP BEHIND THE EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO THE EAST. WILL HAVE DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS NEBRASKA
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH OUR
NORTH WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE TIGHTER AND MIXED LAYER
WINDS ARE STRONGER. WITH VERY DEEP MIXING TODAY...STAYED BELOW
GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS...AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
THE WINDS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHICH WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN A SEPARATE DISCUSSION. WITH THE GOOD MIXING IT WILL
STILL BE A FAIRLY MILD DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING FROM NEAR 60
IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 60S THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SCOOTS ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT...AND
MODELS ARE STILL SPLIT ON WHETHER ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. STILL APPEARS THAT THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA...BUT DID INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND NEBRASKA
ZONES LATE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLD AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

FRIDAY WILL EXHIBIT OUR EVER PRESENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WELL MIXED...
DRY DAY. HOWEVER WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT PROJECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG
AT 850MB COMPARED TO SOME OTHER DAYS WE HAVE HAD RECENTLY. FOR
INSTANCE 25 KNOTS IS FORECAST OFF OF THE VARIOUS MODELS AT 18Z IN
OUR EASTERN ZONES AT 850MB...MUCH LIGHTER ALONG AND WEST OF I 29.
BUT WITH THE HIGH SETTLING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THE WINDS SHOULD NOT INCREASE AFTER 18Z AND MAY IN FACT
NOTCH SLOWLY DOWN A BIT. FOR HIGHS...MIXED TEMPERATURES TO JUST
ABOVE 850MB BUT AT ANY RATE IT WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER...MORE
SEASONAL WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE TRICKY AND
WILL BE ELEVATED DEPENDENT WITH A LIGHT...DRY SURFACE FLOW. MAY NOT
HAVE GONE QUITE CHILLY ENOUGH AT SOME LOCATIONS SUCH AS SIOUX
CITY... SPENCER...HURON AND CHAMBERLAIN. BUT THERE IS NO RISK FOR
PRECIP AND IT IS SO DRY IT MAY NOT EVEN FROST.

ON SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD...THE QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. THE
GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN SHOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE CLIPPING SOUTHWEST
MN DURING THE AFTERNOON DRAINING DOWN FROM WESTERN ONTARIO. WENT
WITH A NAM AND ECMWF COMPROMISE WHICH PLACES THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. 850MB TEMPERATURES REALLY WARM UP BIG TIME ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SO CONTINUED THE TREND OF RAISING HIGHS
FOR SATURDAY. ANY GUIDANCE VALUES WHICH ARE NOT BIAS CORRECTED WERE
IMMEDIATELY TOSSED...AND PREFERRED THE WARMEST BIAS CORRECTED VALUES
SUCH AS MOS AND THE ECMWF. THEREFORE HAVE 70 TO 75 DEGREES FOR THE
MO RIVER VALLEY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY NIGHT IS INTERESTING IN THAT ALL OF THE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACCAS TSRA DEVELOP IN PARTS OF OUR AREA EAST
OF I 29 WHERE A STOUT 45 TO 55 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IS FEEDING IN FROM
THE SOUTH INTO THE WARM FRONT PROVIDING LOCALIZED LIFT. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS FAIRLY DECENT IN THOSE AREAS BUT NOT SURE IF THAT IS
A FEEDBACK FROM THE MODEL PRODUCED CONVECTION OR NOT. MID LAPSE
RATES ARE PRETTY UNSTABLE HOWEVER.

SUNDAY IS ANOTHER PROBLEMATIC DAY FOR HIGHS IN THAT THERE IS QUITE A
DIFFERENCE IN HOW AGGRESSIVE THE MODELS ARE IN PLUNGING THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT SOUTHWARD. THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS AND POSITIONS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO SIOUX CITY BY
00Z MONDAY. THE GEM GLOBAL BARELY MOVES IT AND THE GFS IS IN
BETWEEN. NOTING THIS...OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES ALONG HIGHWAY 14 MAY
HAVE TROUBLE GETTING OUT OF THE 50S. BUT CONVERSELY...THE WARM BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES ONCE AGAIN LOOK KING FOR OUR SOUTH...AND HAVE SIOUX
CITY CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES.

THEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY A WAVY PATTERN FINALLY ENSUES...AND THIS
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FOR A WHILE NOW AS
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES. STILL LOOKS LIKE A
CHANCE FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ELEVATED TSRA IN THE SOUTHEAST QUAD OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. MONDAY STILL COULD BE QUITE A DAMP AND CHILLY DAY FOR
A CHANGE...MUCH NEEDED IF IT PANS OUT. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS A
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE OVERRIDING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PLACING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER THE GEM GLOBAL IS
FURTHER NORTH WITH IT. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT CHILLY AND THE
SUPERBLEND LOOKED TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL PANS OUT.
THEREFORE BLENDED THE MUCH COOLER ECMWF INTO THE SUPERBLEND ON
MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NOW LOOK DRY BEHIND THE WAVE PASSAGE
BUT WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SIOUX CITY FOR THE UPCOMING 1 TO 2 HOURS
OTHERWISE LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THE LOCAL
AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOWL FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. INCREASING MID-
UPR LVL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. LOW DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEEP MIXING...YIELDING AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT THROUGH
MOST AREAS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH WILL RESULT IN AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR THOSE AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE. ELECTED TO KEEP THE NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA ZONES OUT OF A RED FLAG WARNING AS WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER IN THOSE AREAS...AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT SOME OF THE AREAS
IN THOSE FIRE WEATHER ZONES RECEIVED RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

THE LOW HUMIDITY CONTINUES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...15 TO 25
PERCENT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR MIXING POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY NOTING A NORTHWEST FLOW. BUT AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD MAXIMIZE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY...THEN NOTCH DOWN GRADUALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER OUR AREA. SATURDAY WILL
SEE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS...BUT AGAIN WIND
SPEEDS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY STRONG. THIS SHOULD KEEP US BELOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA BOTH DAYS...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER GIVEN DRY FUELS AND LOW HUMIDITY. RELIEF...AT LEAST
TEMPORARY...WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THIS AREA BY MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ900.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...DUX
FIRE WEATHER...MJ/JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 020834
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
334 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

A COOLER DAY LOOKS TO BE ON TAP BEHIND THE EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO THE EAST. WILL HAVE DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS NEBRASKA
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH OUR
NORTH WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE TIGHTER AND MIXED LAYER
WINDS ARE STRONGER. WITH VERY DEEP MIXING TODAY...STAYED BELOW
GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS...AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
THE WINDS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHICH WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN A SEPARATE DISCUSSION. WITH THE GOOD MIXING IT WILL
STILL BE A FAIRLY MILD DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING FROM NEAR 60
IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 60S THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SCOOTS ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT...AND
MODELS ARE STILL SPLIT ON WHETHER ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. STILL APPEARS THAT THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA...BUT DID INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND NEBRASKA
ZONES LATE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLD AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

FRIDAY WILL EXHIBIT OUR EVER PRESENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WELL MIXED...
DRY DAY. HOWEVER WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT PROJECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG
AT 850MB COMPARED TO SOME OTHER DAYS WE HAVE HAD RECENTLY. FOR
INSTANCE 25 KNOTS IS FORECAST OFF OF THE VARIOUS MODELS AT 18Z IN
OUR EASTERN ZONES AT 850MB...MUCH LIGHTER ALONG AND WEST OF I 29.
BUT WITH THE HIGH SETTLING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THE WINDS SHOULD NOT INCREASE AFTER 18Z AND MAY IN FACT
NOTCH SLOWLY DOWN A BIT. FOR HIGHS...MIXED TEMPERATURES TO JUST
ABOVE 850MB BUT AT ANY RATE IT WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER...MORE
SEASONAL WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE TRICKY AND
WILL BE ELEVATED DEPENDENT WITH A LIGHT...DRY SURFACE FLOW. MAY NOT
HAVE GONE QUITE CHILLY ENOUGH AT SOME LOCATIONS SUCH AS SIOUX
CITY... SPENCER...HURON AND CHAMBERLAIN. BUT THERE IS NO RISK FOR
PRECIP AND IT IS SO DRY IT MAY NOT EVEN FROST.

ON SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD...THE QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. THE
GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN SHOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE CLIPPING SOUTHWEST
MN DURING THE AFTERNOON DRAINING DOWN FROM WESTERN ONTARIO. WENT
WITH A NAM AND ECMWF COMPROMISE WHICH PLACES THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. 850MB TEMPERATURES REALLY WARM UP BIG TIME ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SO CONTINUED THE TREND OF RAISING HIGHS
FOR SATURDAY. ANY GUIDANCE VALUES WHICH ARE NOT BIAS CORRECTED WERE
IMMEDIATELY TOSSED...AND PREFERRED THE WARMEST BIAS CORRECTED VALUES
SUCH AS MOS AND THE ECMWF. THEREFORE HAVE 70 TO 75 DEGREES FOR THE
MO RIVER VALLEY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY NIGHT IS INTERESTING IN THAT ALL OF THE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACCAS TSRA DEVELOP IN PARTS OF OUR AREA EAST
OF I 29 WHERE A STOUT 45 TO 55 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IS FEEDING IN FROM
THE SOUTH INTO THE WARM FRONT PROVIDING LOCALIZED LIFT. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS FAIRLY DECENT IN THOSE AREAS BUT NOT SURE IF THAT IS
A FEEDBACK FROM THE MODEL PRODUCED CONVECTION OR NOT. MID LAPSE
RATES ARE PRETTY UNSTABLE HOWEVER.

SUNDAY IS ANOTHER PROBLEMATIC DAY FOR HIGHS IN THAT THERE IS QUITE A
DIFFERENCE IN HOW AGGRESSIVE THE MODELS ARE IN PLUNGING THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT SOUTHWARD. THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS AND POSITIONS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO SIOUX CITY BY
00Z MONDAY. THE GEM GLOBAL BARELY MOVES IT AND THE GFS IS IN
BETWEEN. NOTING THIS...OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES ALONG HIGHWAY 14 MAY
HAVE TROUBLE GETTING OUT OF THE 50S. BUT CONVERSELY...THE WARM BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES ONCE AGAIN LOOK KING FOR OUR SOUTH...AND HAVE SIOUX
CITY CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES.

THEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY A WAVY PATTERN FINALLY ENSUES...AND THIS
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FOR A WHILE NOW AS
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES. STILL LOOKS LIKE A
CHANCE FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ELEVATED TSRA IN THE SOUTHEAST QUAD OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. MONDAY STILL COULD BE QUITE A DAMP AND CHILLY DAY FOR
A CHANGE...MUCH NEEDED IF IT PANS OUT. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS A
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE OVERRIDING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PLACING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER THE GEM GLOBAL IS
FURTHER NORTH WITH IT. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT CHILLY AND THE
SUPERBLEND LOOKED TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL PANS OUT.
THEREFORE BLENDED THE MUCH COOLER ECMWF INTO THE SUPERBLEND ON
MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NOW LOOK DRY BEHIND THE WAVE PASSAGE
BUT WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SIOUX CITY FOR THE UPCOMING 1 TO 2 HOURS
OTHERWISE LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THE LOCAL
AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOWL FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. INCREASING MID-
UPR LVL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. LOW DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEEP MIXING...YIELDING AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT THROUGH
MOST AREAS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH WILL RESULT IN AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR THOSE AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE. ELECTED TO KEEP THE NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA ZONES OUT OF A RED FLAG WARNING AS WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER IN THOSE AREAS...AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT SOME OF THE AREAS
IN THOSE FIRE WEATHER ZONES RECEIVED RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

THE LOW HUMIDITY CONTINUES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...15 TO 25
PERCENT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR MIXING POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY NOTING A NORTHWEST FLOW. BUT AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD MAXIMIZE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY...THEN NOTCH DOWN GRADUALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER OUR AREA. SATURDAY WILL
SEE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS...BUT AGAIN WIND
SPEEDS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY STRONG. THIS SHOULD KEEP US BELOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA BOTH DAYS...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER GIVEN DRY FUELS AND LOW HUMIDITY. RELIEF...AT LEAST
TEMPORARY...WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THIS AREA BY MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ900.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...DUX
FIRE WEATHER...MJ/JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 020834
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
334 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

A COOLER DAY LOOKS TO BE ON TAP BEHIND THE EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO THE EAST. WILL HAVE DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS NEBRASKA
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH OUR
NORTH WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE TIGHTER AND MIXED LAYER
WINDS ARE STRONGER. WITH VERY DEEP MIXING TODAY...STAYED BELOW
GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS...AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
THE WINDS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHICH WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN A SEPARATE DISCUSSION. WITH THE GOOD MIXING IT WILL
STILL BE A FAIRLY MILD DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING FROM NEAR 60
IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 60S THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SCOOTS ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT...AND
MODELS ARE STILL SPLIT ON WHETHER ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. STILL APPEARS THAT THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA...BUT DID INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND NEBRASKA
ZONES LATE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLD AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

FRIDAY WILL EXHIBIT OUR EVER PRESENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WELL MIXED...
DRY DAY. HOWEVER WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT PROJECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG
AT 850MB COMPARED TO SOME OTHER DAYS WE HAVE HAD RECENTLY. FOR
INSTANCE 25 KNOTS IS FORECAST OFF OF THE VARIOUS MODELS AT 18Z IN
OUR EASTERN ZONES AT 850MB...MUCH LIGHTER ALONG AND WEST OF I 29.
BUT WITH THE HIGH SETTLING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THE WINDS SHOULD NOT INCREASE AFTER 18Z AND MAY IN FACT
NOTCH SLOWLY DOWN A BIT. FOR HIGHS...MIXED TEMPERATURES TO JUST
ABOVE 850MB BUT AT ANY RATE IT WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER...MORE
SEASONAL WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE TRICKY AND
WILL BE ELEVATED DEPENDENT WITH A LIGHT...DRY SURFACE FLOW. MAY NOT
HAVE GONE QUITE CHILLY ENOUGH AT SOME LOCATIONS SUCH AS SIOUX
CITY... SPENCER...HURON AND CHAMBERLAIN. BUT THERE IS NO RISK FOR
PRECIP AND IT IS SO DRY IT MAY NOT EVEN FROST.

ON SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD...THE QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. THE
GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN SHOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE CLIPPING SOUTHWEST
MN DURING THE AFTERNOON DRAINING DOWN FROM WESTERN ONTARIO. WENT
WITH A NAM AND ECMWF COMPROMISE WHICH PLACES THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. 850MB TEMPERATURES REALLY WARM UP BIG TIME ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SO CONTINUED THE TREND OF RAISING HIGHS
FOR SATURDAY. ANY GUIDANCE VALUES WHICH ARE NOT BIAS CORRECTED WERE
IMMEDIATELY TOSSED...AND PREFERRED THE WARMEST BIAS CORRECTED VALUES
SUCH AS MOS AND THE ECMWF. THEREFORE HAVE 70 TO 75 DEGREES FOR THE
MO RIVER VALLEY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY NIGHT IS INTERESTING IN THAT ALL OF THE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACCAS TSRA DEVELOP IN PARTS OF OUR AREA EAST
OF I 29 WHERE A STOUT 45 TO 55 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IS FEEDING IN FROM
THE SOUTH INTO THE WARM FRONT PROVIDING LOCALIZED LIFT. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS FAIRLY DECENT IN THOSE AREAS BUT NOT SURE IF THAT IS
A FEEDBACK FROM THE MODEL PRODUCED CONVECTION OR NOT. MID LAPSE
RATES ARE PRETTY UNSTABLE HOWEVER.

SUNDAY IS ANOTHER PROBLEMATIC DAY FOR HIGHS IN THAT THERE IS QUITE A
DIFFERENCE IN HOW AGGRESSIVE THE MODELS ARE IN PLUNGING THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT SOUTHWARD. THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS AND POSITIONS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO SIOUX CITY BY
00Z MONDAY. THE GEM GLOBAL BARELY MOVES IT AND THE GFS IS IN
BETWEEN. NOTING THIS...OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES ALONG HIGHWAY 14 MAY
HAVE TROUBLE GETTING OUT OF THE 50S. BUT CONVERSELY...THE WARM BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES ONCE AGAIN LOOK KING FOR OUR SOUTH...AND HAVE SIOUX
CITY CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES.

THEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY A WAVY PATTERN FINALLY ENSUES...AND THIS
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FOR A WHILE NOW AS
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES. STILL LOOKS LIKE A
CHANCE FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ELEVATED TSRA IN THE SOUTHEAST QUAD OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. MONDAY STILL COULD BE QUITE A DAMP AND CHILLY DAY FOR
A CHANGE...MUCH NEEDED IF IT PANS OUT. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS A
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE OVERRIDING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PLACING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER THE GEM GLOBAL IS
FURTHER NORTH WITH IT. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT CHILLY AND THE
SUPERBLEND LOOKED TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL PANS OUT.
THEREFORE BLENDED THE MUCH COOLER ECMWF INTO THE SUPERBLEND ON
MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NOW LOOK DRY BEHIND THE WAVE PASSAGE
BUT WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SIOUX CITY FOR THE UPCOMING 1 TO 2 HOURS
OTHERWISE LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THE LOCAL
AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOWL FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. INCREASING MID-
UPR LVL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. LOW DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEEP MIXING...YIELDING AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT THROUGH
MOST AREAS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH WILL RESULT IN AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR THOSE AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE. ELECTED TO KEEP THE NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA ZONES OUT OF A RED FLAG WARNING AS WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER IN THOSE AREAS...AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT SOME OF THE AREAS
IN THOSE FIRE WEATHER ZONES RECEIVED RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

THE LOW HUMIDITY CONTINUES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...15 TO 25
PERCENT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR MIXING POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY NOTING A NORTHWEST FLOW. BUT AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD MAXIMIZE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY...THEN NOTCH DOWN GRADUALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER OUR AREA. SATURDAY WILL
SEE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS...BUT AGAIN WIND
SPEEDS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY STRONG. THIS SHOULD KEEP US BELOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA BOTH DAYS...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER GIVEN DRY FUELS AND LOW HUMIDITY. RELIEF...AT LEAST
TEMPORARY...WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THIS AREA BY MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ900.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...DUX
FIRE WEATHER...MJ/JM




000
FXUS63 KABR 020549 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1249 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CANCELLED THE RFW A LITTLE EARLY AS RH HAS RECOVERED TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AND WINDS IN AREAS WITH THE LOWEST RH HAVE
DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY AS NO SITES ARE CURRENTLY REACHING
CRITERIA. HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND FIRE DANGER REMAINS A CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CHIEF CONCERN. SEVERAL FIRES ONGOING AT
TIME...THANKFULLY WE ARE AT PEAK PRESSURE RISES/PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SO ANTICIPATE WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH SETTING SUN.
THE GRADIENT WONT GET MUCH STRONGER FOR THURSDAY...HOWEVER
WESTERLY FLOW...WEAK COLD ADVECTION...AND SUN WILL LEAD TO
EFFICIENT MIXING...POTENTIALLY UP TO 700MB. MIXED DOWN WINDS TOP
OUT IN THE LOW END OF 30G40KTS...SO THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY...DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE. FRIDAY AM WILL BE THE COOLEST
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES -5 TO -9C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE QUIET AS THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE
LOW WILL HAVE DROPPED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLIDE
EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DROP JUST LOW ENOUGH BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR BECOME SNOW FOR
A TIME...BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. WILL
LEAVE WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S...THEN A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS OR HIGHER AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267>273.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 020549 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1249 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CANCELLED THE RFW A LITTLE EARLY AS RH HAS RECOVERED TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AND WINDS IN AREAS WITH THE LOWEST RH HAVE
DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY AS NO SITES ARE CURRENTLY REACHING
CRITERIA. HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND FIRE DANGER REMAINS A CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CHIEF CONCERN. SEVERAL FIRES ONGOING AT
TIME...THANKFULLY WE ARE AT PEAK PRESSURE RISES/PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SO ANTICIPATE WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH SETTING SUN.
THE GRADIENT WONT GET MUCH STRONGER FOR THURSDAY...HOWEVER
WESTERLY FLOW...WEAK COLD ADVECTION...AND SUN WILL LEAD TO
EFFICIENT MIXING...POTENTIALLY UP TO 700MB. MIXED DOWN WINDS TOP
OUT IN THE LOW END OF 30G40KTS...SO THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY...DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE. FRIDAY AM WILL BE THE COOLEST
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES -5 TO -9C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE QUIET AS THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE
LOW WILL HAVE DROPPED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLIDE
EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DROP JUST LOW ENOUGH BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR BECOME SNOW FOR
A TIME...BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. WILL
LEAVE WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S...THEN A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS OR HIGHER AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267>273.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 020549 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1249 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CANCELLED THE RFW A LITTLE EARLY AS RH HAS RECOVERED TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AND WINDS IN AREAS WITH THE LOWEST RH HAVE
DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY AS NO SITES ARE CURRENTLY REACHING
CRITERIA. HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND FIRE DANGER REMAINS A CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CHIEF CONCERN. SEVERAL FIRES ONGOING AT
TIME...THANKFULLY WE ARE AT PEAK PRESSURE RISES/PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SO ANTICIPATE WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH SETTING SUN.
THE GRADIENT WONT GET MUCH STRONGER FOR THURSDAY...HOWEVER
WESTERLY FLOW...WEAK COLD ADVECTION...AND SUN WILL LEAD TO
EFFICIENT MIXING...POTENTIALLY UP TO 700MB. MIXED DOWN WINDS TOP
OUT IN THE LOW END OF 30G40KTS...SO THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY...DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE. FRIDAY AM WILL BE THE COOLEST
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES -5 TO -9C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE QUIET AS THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE
LOW WILL HAVE DROPPED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLIDE
EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DROP JUST LOW ENOUGH BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR BECOME SNOW FOR
A TIME...BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. WILL
LEAVE WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S...THEN A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS OR HIGHER AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267>273.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 020549 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1249 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CANCELLED THE RFW A LITTLE EARLY AS RH HAS RECOVERED TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AND WINDS IN AREAS WITH THE LOWEST RH HAVE
DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY AS NO SITES ARE CURRENTLY REACHING
CRITERIA. HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND FIRE DANGER REMAINS A CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CHIEF CONCERN. SEVERAL FIRES ONGOING AT
TIME...THANKFULLY WE ARE AT PEAK PRESSURE RISES/PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SO ANTICIPATE WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH SETTING SUN.
THE GRADIENT WONT GET MUCH STRONGER FOR THURSDAY...HOWEVER
WESTERLY FLOW...WEAK COLD ADVECTION...AND SUN WILL LEAD TO
EFFICIENT MIXING...POTENTIALLY UP TO 700MB. MIXED DOWN WINDS TOP
OUT IN THE LOW END OF 30G40KTS...SO THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY...DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE. FRIDAY AM WILL BE THE COOLEST
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES -5 TO -9C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE QUIET AS THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE
LOW WILL HAVE DROPPED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLIDE
EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DROP JUST LOW ENOUGH BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR BECOME SNOW FOR
A TIME...BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. WILL
LEAVE WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S...THEN A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS OR HIGHER AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267>273.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 020549 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1249 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CANCELLED THE RFW A LITTLE EARLY AS RH HAS RECOVERED TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AND WINDS IN AREAS WITH THE LOWEST RH HAVE
DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY AS NO SITES ARE CURRENTLY REACHING
CRITERIA. HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND FIRE DANGER REMAINS A CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CHIEF CONCERN. SEVERAL FIRES ONGOING AT
TIME...THANKFULLY WE ARE AT PEAK PRESSURE RISES/PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SO ANTICIPATE WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH SETTING SUN.
THE GRADIENT WONT GET MUCH STRONGER FOR THURSDAY...HOWEVER
WESTERLY FLOW...WEAK COLD ADVECTION...AND SUN WILL LEAD TO
EFFICIENT MIXING...POTENTIALLY UP TO 700MB. MIXED DOWN WINDS TOP
OUT IN THE LOW END OF 30G40KTS...SO THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY...DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE. FRIDAY AM WILL BE THE COOLEST
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES -5 TO -9C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE QUIET AS THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE
LOW WILL HAVE DROPPED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLIDE
EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DROP JUST LOW ENOUGH BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR BECOME SNOW FOR
A TIME...BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. WILL
LEAVE WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S...THEN A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS OR HIGHER AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267>273.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KABR 020549 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1249 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CANCELLED THE RFW A LITTLE EARLY AS RH HAS RECOVERED TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AND WINDS IN AREAS WITH THE LOWEST RH HAVE
DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY AS NO SITES ARE CURRENTLY REACHING
CRITERIA. HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND FIRE DANGER REMAINS A CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CHIEF CONCERN. SEVERAL FIRES ONGOING AT
TIME...THANKFULLY WE ARE AT PEAK PRESSURE RISES/PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SO ANTICIPATE WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH SETTING SUN.
THE GRADIENT WONT GET MUCH STRONGER FOR THURSDAY...HOWEVER
WESTERLY FLOW...WEAK COLD ADVECTION...AND SUN WILL LEAD TO
EFFICIENT MIXING...POTENTIALLY UP TO 700MB. MIXED DOWN WINDS TOP
OUT IN THE LOW END OF 30G40KTS...SO THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY...DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE. FRIDAY AM WILL BE THE COOLEST
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES -5 TO -9C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE QUIET AS THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE
LOW WILL HAVE DROPPED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLIDE
EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DROP JUST LOW ENOUGH BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR BECOME SNOW FOR
A TIME...BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. WILL
LEAVE WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S...THEN A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS OR HIGHER AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267>273.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KABR 020549 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1249 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CANCELLED THE RFW A LITTLE EARLY AS RH HAS RECOVERED TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AND WINDS IN AREAS WITH THE LOWEST RH HAVE
DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY AS NO SITES ARE CURRENTLY REACHING
CRITERIA. HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND FIRE DANGER REMAINS A CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CHIEF CONCERN. SEVERAL FIRES ONGOING AT
TIME...THANKFULLY WE ARE AT PEAK PRESSURE RISES/PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SO ANTICIPATE WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH SETTING SUN.
THE GRADIENT WONT GET MUCH STRONGER FOR THURSDAY...HOWEVER
WESTERLY FLOW...WEAK COLD ADVECTION...AND SUN WILL LEAD TO
EFFICIENT MIXING...POTENTIALLY UP TO 700MB. MIXED DOWN WINDS TOP
OUT IN THE LOW END OF 30G40KTS...SO THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY...DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE. FRIDAY AM WILL BE THE COOLEST
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES -5 TO -9C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE QUIET AS THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE
LOW WILL HAVE DROPPED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLIDE
EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DROP JUST LOW ENOUGH BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR BECOME SNOW FOR
A TIME...BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. WILL
LEAVE WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S...THEN A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS OR HIGHER AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267>273.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KABR 020549 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1249 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CANCELLED THE RFW A LITTLE EARLY AS RH HAS RECOVERED TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AND WINDS IN AREAS WITH THE LOWEST RH HAVE
DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY AS NO SITES ARE CURRENTLY REACHING
CRITERIA. HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND FIRE DANGER REMAINS A CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CHIEF CONCERN. SEVERAL FIRES ONGOING AT
TIME...THANKFULLY WE ARE AT PEAK PRESSURE RISES/PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SO ANTICIPATE WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH SETTING SUN.
THE GRADIENT WONT GET MUCH STRONGER FOR THURSDAY...HOWEVER
WESTERLY FLOW...WEAK COLD ADVECTION...AND SUN WILL LEAD TO
EFFICIENT MIXING...POTENTIALLY UP TO 700MB. MIXED DOWN WINDS TOP
OUT IN THE LOW END OF 30G40KTS...SO THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY...DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE. FRIDAY AM WILL BE THE COOLEST
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES -5 TO -9C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE QUIET AS THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE
LOW WILL HAVE DROPPED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLIDE
EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DROP JUST LOW ENOUGH BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR BECOME SNOW FOR
A TIME...BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. WILL
LEAVE WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S...THEN A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS OR HIGHER AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267>273.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KUNR 020528
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1128 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING
TO DECREASE AS THE SFC LOW KICKS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...SO WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RH RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW THIS EVENING
AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ARE BEING REPORTED.
HOWEVER DIURNAL COOLING AND THE DECREASING WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVE FIRE WEATHER DANGER AFTER DARK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
50 KTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECTING ANOTHER WINDY DAY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
AT TIMES ARE LIKELY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S WITH COOLER READINGS IN THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWEST
WYO. TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED ON THE DRY SIDE. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY AS PRECIP
REMAINS CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF EASTERN IDAHO AND INTO
SOUTHEAST WYO. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR NORTHEAST
WYO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST SD DURING THE AFTERNOON...CAN`T RULE OUT
THAT A SHOWER OR TWO WILL CLIP THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LIE MAINLY WITH LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT BEGIN TO
DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD. THIS AIR WILL BE DRIER AS WELL WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE
SEEN FROM THE MODELS SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON FRIDAY...THE COLDER AIR WILL
PUSH EASTWARD ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM BELOW
0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT TO A RANGE OF 0C
TO 5C /EAST TO WEST/. WITH THIS WARMER AIR MOVING IN...LOOKING FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH WILL BE A BIT COOLER. DO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF MONTANA
AND INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT
LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER...BUT ALSO SHOWS DECENT
LIFT IN THE SATURATED LAYER SO FELT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WITH LIGHT QPF/S OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THOSE AREAS.

AFTER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. VERY LITTLE
IN TERMS OF MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN THROUGH ANY LEVELS SO
ANTICIPATING LITTLE CLOUD COVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WITH THE WARM AIR-MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME AREA MAY SEE HIGHER WINDS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS FORECASTED IN THE 30S. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG A BIT
BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. CONCURRENTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO WYOMING WHICH WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES IN THROUGH THE DAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WARM AIR AND MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

AGAIN...THE MODEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE GFS AND GEM PUSH OUT AN INITIAL WAVE INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...THEN KEEP A THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OFF-SHORE. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM OFF SHORE WHILE BRINGING
MUCH WEAKER ENERGY INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK AND IS VERY
SLOW TO START TRANSITIONING THE THE MAIN SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
CONUS.THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS WAS USED...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...COOLER AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR THE BLACK HILLS AND POSSIBLY
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA MOST NIGHTS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL REDEVELOP LATER THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30KTS AT
TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND MAY DROP A LITTLE
FURTHER IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO RECOVER EARLY
THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH HAVE BEEN
ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW...BUT SHOULD BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS A DEEPENING AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL MORE RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER COOLER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN



000
FXUS63 KUNR 020528
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1128 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING
TO DECREASE AS THE SFC LOW KICKS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...SO WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RH RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW THIS EVENING
AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ARE BEING REPORTED.
HOWEVER DIURNAL COOLING AND THE DECREASING WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVE FIRE WEATHER DANGER AFTER DARK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
50 KTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECTING ANOTHER WINDY DAY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
AT TIMES ARE LIKELY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S WITH COOLER READINGS IN THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWEST
WYO. TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED ON THE DRY SIDE. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY AS PRECIP
REMAINS CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF EASTERN IDAHO AND INTO
SOUTHEAST WYO. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR NORTHEAST
WYO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST SD DURING THE AFTERNOON...CAN`T RULE OUT
THAT A SHOWER OR TWO WILL CLIP THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LIE MAINLY WITH LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT BEGIN TO
DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD. THIS AIR WILL BE DRIER AS WELL WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE
SEEN FROM THE MODELS SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON FRIDAY...THE COLDER AIR WILL
PUSH EASTWARD ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM BELOW
0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT TO A RANGE OF 0C
TO 5C /EAST TO WEST/. WITH THIS WARMER AIR MOVING IN...LOOKING FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH WILL BE A BIT COOLER. DO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF MONTANA
AND INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT
LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER...BUT ALSO SHOWS DECENT
LIFT IN THE SATURATED LAYER SO FELT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WITH LIGHT QPF/S OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THOSE AREAS.

AFTER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. VERY LITTLE
IN TERMS OF MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN THROUGH ANY LEVELS SO
ANTICIPATING LITTLE CLOUD COVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WITH THE WARM AIR-MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME AREA MAY SEE HIGHER WINDS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS FORECASTED IN THE 30S. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG A BIT
BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. CONCURRENTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO WYOMING WHICH WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES IN THROUGH THE DAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WARM AIR AND MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

AGAIN...THE MODEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE GFS AND GEM PUSH OUT AN INITIAL WAVE INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...THEN KEEP A THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OFF-SHORE. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM OFF SHORE WHILE BRINGING
MUCH WEAKER ENERGY INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK AND IS VERY
SLOW TO START TRANSITIONING THE THE MAIN SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
CONUS.THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS WAS USED...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...COOLER AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR THE BLACK HILLS AND POSSIBLY
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA MOST NIGHTS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL REDEVELOP LATER THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30KTS AT
TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND MAY DROP A LITTLE
FURTHER IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO RECOVER EARLY
THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH HAVE BEEN
ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW...BUT SHOULD BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS A DEEPENING AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL MORE RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER COOLER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN




000
FXUS63 KUNR 020528
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1128 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING
TO DECREASE AS THE SFC LOW KICKS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...SO WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RH RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW THIS EVENING
AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ARE BEING REPORTED.
HOWEVER DIURNAL COOLING AND THE DECREASING WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVE FIRE WEATHER DANGER AFTER DARK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
50 KTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECTING ANOTHER WINDY DAY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
AT TIMES ARE LIKELY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S WITH COOLER READINGS IN THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWEST
WYO. TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED ON THE DRY SIDE. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY AS PRECIP
REMAINS CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF EASTERN IDAHO AND INTO
SOUTHEAST WYO. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR NORTHEAST
WYO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST SD DURING THE AFTERNOON...CAN`T RULE OUT
THAT A SHOWER OR TWO WILL CLIP THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LIE MAINLY WITH LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT BEGIN TO
DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD. THIS AIR WILL BE DRIER AS WELL WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE
SEEN FROM THE MODELS SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON FRIDAY...THE COLDER AIR WILL
PUSH EASTWARD ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM BELOW
0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT TO A RANGE OF 0C
TO 5C /EAST TO WEST/. WITH THIS WARMER AIR MOVING IN...LOOKING FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH WILL BE A BIT COOLER. DO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF MONTANA
AND INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT
LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER...BUT ALSO SHOWS DECENT
LIFT IN THE SATURATED LAYER SO FELT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WITH LIGHT QPF/S OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THOSE AREAS.

AFTER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. VERY LITTLE
IN TERMS OF MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN THROUGH ANY LEVELS SO
ANTICIPATING LITTLE CLOUD COVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WITH THE WARM AIR-MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME AREA MAY SEE HIGHER WINDS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS FORECASTED IN THE 30S. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG A BIT
BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. CONCURRENTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO WYOMING WHICH WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES IN THROUGH THE DAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WARM AIR AND MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

AGAIN...THE MODEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE GFS AND GEM PUSH OUT AN INITIAL WAVE INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...THEN KEEP A THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OFF-SHORE. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM OFF SHORE WHILE BRINGING
MUCH WEAKER ENERGY INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK AND IS VERY
SLOW TO START TRANSITIONING THE THE MAIN SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
CONUS.THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS WAS USED...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...COOLER AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR THE BLACK HILLS AND POSSIBLY
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA MOST NIGHTS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL REDEVELOP LATER THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30KTS AT
TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND MAY DROP A LITTLE
FURTHER IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO RECOVER EARLY
THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH HAVE BEEN
ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW...BUT SHOULD BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS A DEEPENING AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL MORE RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER COOLER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN



000
FXUS63 KFSD 020405
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1105 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE
FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED SOME...MOISTURE RETURNS HAVE ALSO
BEEN SLOW. DEWPOINTS ARE JUST STARTING TO BUILD INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE 50+ READINGS STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CAPE VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL...HOWEVER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRONG INVERTED V WITH A LONG AND SKINNY CAPE AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF INITIATION IS A BIT LATER THAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE
BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WOULD BE IN THE EARLY EVENING...WITH
STORMS QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE. THESE STORMS WILL
PROGRESS EAST WITH THE FRONT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE...BUT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SURFACE WINDS
ALREADY AVERAGING 25 TO 35 MPH...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET SEVERE
WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS TO 65 OR 70 MPH. HAIL SEEMS LIKE MUCH
LESS OF A THREAT AND WOULD BE LARGELY SUB SEVERE. FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE HRRR AND RAP...WHICH HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR SIOUX CITY TO ORANGE CITY TO
WINDOM AROUND 6 OR 7 PM AND TRACKING EAST INTO THE EVENING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FIRE JUST OUTSIDE OF THE SIOUX
FALLS AREA...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT. ALSO LOWERED QPF
AMOUNTS QUITE A BIT GIVEN THE DRIER SCENARIO...BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN UNDER A THUNDERSTORM.

STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DECREASE A LITTLE AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES THEN TURN NORTHWEST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH. DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE WIND ADVISORY A FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE GOOD
TO EXPIRE AROUND 6 PM. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WINDS WILL BE ON AN
OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS WILL SETTLE CLOSER TO 5
TO 10 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE WEST TO
UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

COOLER AND BREEZY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE BY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN EXPECTED DEEP MIXING DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS IMPACTS FIRE WEATHER AND IS DESCRIBED
BELOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THE WAVE CROSSING THE
PLAINS WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY
SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR
ADVECTS IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING IN MORNING LOWS IN
THE 20S AND 30S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. WILL BE A
SUNNY DAY AND WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER THOUGH...MORE IN THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE.

A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES. SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY...ALLOWING
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. SO TRENDED HIGHS IN THAT
DIRECTION...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 50S AND 60S...POSSIBLY SOME
LOW 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS STRUGGLE
WITH MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF WAVES EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE LONGWAVE
WEST COAST TROUGH. AS OF NOW LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ELEVATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ELEVATED WARM
FRONT. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...COULD ALSO SEE SOME STRATUS
AND DRIZZLE. QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE THE LOW TRACKS AND HOW FAST
IT MOVES EAST. GEM AND GFS ARE IN ONE CAMP MOVING THE SURFACE LOW
OVERHEAD MONDAY AND EXITING TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
ECMWF KEEPING MORE OF THE ENERGY BACK AND MOVING THE LOW BY ON
TUESDAY. SO FOR NOW CAN JUST SAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. TRACK OF THE
LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE SEE A COLD RAIN OR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENT CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS A COOLER RAIN...WITH MAYBE A FEW
STORMS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT TRACK...AND CAN NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN...SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS. ANOTHER WAVE MAY BRING ANOTHER
PRECIPITATION THREAT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SO MAIN STORY WILL BE
THE MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION THREAT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SIOUX CITY FOR THE UPCOMING 1 TO 2 HOURS
OTHERWISE LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THE LOCAL
AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOWL FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. INCREASING MID-
UPR LVL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TURNING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND
IT. UPGRADED SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR RH VALUES TO
DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 35
MPH RANGE. KEPT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA OUT FOR NOW.
WINDS ARE MORE BORDERLINE THERE...15 TO 30 MPH AND RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT FIRE THREAT. HOWEVER IF
RAIN TONIGHT ENDS UP MORE SCATTERED OR LESS THAN EXPECTED...MIDNIGHT
SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER INCLUDING THEM IN THE RED FLAG WARNING
AS WELL.

THE LOW RH CONTINUES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...15 TO 25
PERCENT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER. GENERALLY 10 TO 25 MPH ON
FRIDAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND 10 TO 20 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP US BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BOTH
DAYS...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER GIVEN DRY
FUELS AND LOW RH.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR SDZ255>258.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ900.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...DUX
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KABR 020235 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
935 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CANCELLED THE RFW A LITTLE EARLY AS RH HAS RECOVERED TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AND WINDS IN AREAS WITH THE LOWEST RH HAVE
DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY AS NO SITES ARE CURRENTLY REACHING
CRITERIA. HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND FIRE DANGER REMAINS A CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CHIEF CONCERN. SEVERAL FIRES ONGOING AT
TIME...THANKFULLY WE ARE AT PEAK PRESSURE RISES/PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SO ANTICIPATE WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH SETTING SUN.
THE GRADIENT WONT GET MUCH STRONGER FOR THURSDAY...HOWEVER
WESTERLY FLOW...WEAK COLD ADVECTION...AND SUN WILL LEAD TO
EFFICIENT MIXING...POTENTIALLY UP TO 700MB. MIXED DOWN WINDS TOP
OUT IN THE LOW END OF 30G40KTS...SO THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY...DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE. FRIDAY AM WILL BE THE COOLEST
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES -5 TO -9C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE QUIET AS THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE
LOW WILL HAVE DROPPED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLIDE
EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DROP JUST LOW ENOUGH BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR BECOME SNOW FOR
A TIME...BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. WILL
LEAVE WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S...THEN A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 KTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST THEN AGAIN TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE
THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
     THURSDAY FOR SDZ267>273.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE







000
FXUS63 KABR 020235 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
935 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CANCELLED THE RFW A LITTLE EARLY AS RH HAS RECOVERED TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AND WINDS IN AREAS WITH THE LOWEST RH HAVE
DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY AS NO SITES ARE CURRENTLY REACHING
CRITERIA. HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND FIRE DANGER REMAINS A CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CHIEF CONCERN. SEVERAL FIRES ONGOING AT
TIME...THANKFULLY WE ARE AT PEAK PRESSURE RISES/PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SO ANTICIPATE WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH SETTING SUN.
THE GRADIENT WONT GET MUCH STRONGER FOR THURSDAY...HOWEVER
WESTERLY FLOW...WEAK COLD ADVECTION...AND SUN WILL LEAD TO
EFFICIENT MIXING...POTENTIALLY UP TO 700MB. MIXED DOWN WINDS TOP
OUT IN THE LOW END OF 30G40KTS...SO THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY...DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE. FRIDAY AM WILL BE THE COOLEST
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES -5 TO -9C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE QUIET AS THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE
LOW WILL HAVE DROPPED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLIDE
EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DROP JUST LOW ENOUGH BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR BECOME SNOW FOR
A TIME...BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. WILL
LEAVE WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S...THEN A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 KTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST THEN AGAIN TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE
THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
     THURSDAY FOR SDZ267>273.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE








000
FXUS63 KFSD 012345
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
645 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE
FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED SOME...MOISTURE RETURNS HAVE ALSO
BEEN SLOW. DEWPOINTS ARE JUST STARTING TO BUILD INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE 50+ READINGS STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CAPE VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL...HOWEVER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRONG INVERTED V WITH A LONG AND SKINNY CAPE AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF INITIATION IS A BIT LATER THAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE
BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WOULD BE IN THE EARLY EVENING...WITH
STORMS QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE. THESE STORMS WILL
PROGRESS EAST WITH THE FRONT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE...BUT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SURFACE WINDS
ALREADY AVERAGING 25 TO 35 MPH...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET SEVERE
WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS TO 65 OR 70 MPH. HAIL SEEMS LIKE MUCH
LESS OF A THREAT AND WOULD BE LARGELY SUB SEVERE. FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE HRRR AND RAP...WHICH HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR SIOUX CITY TO ORANGE CITY TO
WINDOM AROUND 6 OR 7 PM AND TRACKING EAST INTO THE EVENING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FIRE JUST OUTSIDE OF THE SIOUX
FALLS AREA...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT. ALSO LOWERED QPF
AMOUNTS QUITE A BIT GIVEN THE DRIER SCENARIO...BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN UNDER A THUNDERSTORM.

STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DECREASE A LITTLE AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES THEN TURN NORTHWEST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH. DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE WIND ADVISORY A FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE GOOD
TO EXPIRE AROUND 6 PM. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WINDS WILL BE ON AN
OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS WILL SETTLE CLOSER TO 5
TO 10 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE WEST TO
UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

COOLER AND BREEZY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE BY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN EXPECTED DEEP MIXING DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS IMPACTS FIRE WEATHER AND IS DESCRIBED
BELOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THE WAVE CROSSING THE
PLAINS WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY
SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR
ADVECTS IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING IN MORNING LOWS IN
THE 20S AND 30S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. WILL BE A
SUNNY DAY AND WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER THOUGH...MORE IN THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE.

A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES. SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY...ALLOWING
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. SO TRENDED HIGHS IN THAT
DIRECTION...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 50S AND 60S...POSSIBLY SOME
LOW 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS STRUGGLE
WITH MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF WAVES EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE LONGWAVE
WEST COAST TROUGH. AS OF NOW LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ELEVATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ELEVATED WARM
FRONT. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...COULD ALSO SEE SOME STRATUS
AND DRIZZLE. QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE THE LOW TRACKS AND HOW FAST
IT MOVES EAST. GEM AND GFS ARE IN ONE CAMP MOVING THE SURFACE LOW
OVERHEAD MONDAY AND EXITING TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
ECMWF KEEPING MORE OF THE ENERGY BACK AND MOVING THE LOW BY ON
TUESDAY. SO FOR NOW CAN JUST SAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. TRACK OF THE
LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE SEE A COLD RAIN OR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENT CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS A COOLER RAIN...WITH MAYBE A FEW
STORMS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT TRACK...AND CAN NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN...SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS. ANOTHER WAVE MAY BRING ANOTHER
PRECIPITATION THREAT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SO MAIN STORY WILL BE
THE MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION THREAT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM JUST EAST OF FSD THIS EVENING ALONG
AN ADVANCING LOW LVL FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
EAST OF FSD. AT KSUX...PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. WILL BE MONITORING CONVECTION FURTHER
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT IN NEBRASKA. THIS CONVECTION COULD
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CLIP THE AIRPORT WITHIN A THE
STRATIFORM REGION AFTER 02Z.

OTHERWISE...ONCE CONVECTION MOVES EAST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER GUSTY...BUT VFR...DAY EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TURNING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND
IT. UPGRADED SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR RH VALUES TO
DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 35
MPH RANGE. KEPT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA OUT FOR NOW.
WINDS ARE MORE BORDERLINE THERE...15 TO 30 MPH AND RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT FIRE THREAT. HOWEVER IF
RAIN TONIGHT ENDS UP MORE SCATTERED OR LESS THAN EXPECTED...MIDNIGHT
SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER INCLUDING THEM IN THE RED FLAG WARNING
AS WELL.

THE LOW RH CONTINUES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...15 TO 25
PERCENT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER. GENERALLY 10 TO 25 MPH ON
FRIDAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND 10 TO 20 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP US BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BOTH
DAYS...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER GIVEN DRY
FUELS AND LOW RH.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR SDZ255>258.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ900.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...DUX
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 012345
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
645 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE
FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED SOME...MOISTURE RETURNS HAVE ALSO
BEEN SLOW. DEWPOINTS ARE JUST STARTING TO BUILD INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE 50+ READINGS STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CAPE VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL...HOWEVER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRONG INVERTED V WITH A LONG AND SKINNY CAPE AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF INITIATION IS A BIT LATER THAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE
BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WOULD BE IN THE EARLY EVENING...WITH
STORMS QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE. THESE STORMS WILL
PROGRESS EAST WITH THE FRONT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE...BUT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SURFACE WINDS
ALREADY AVERAGING 25 TO 35 MPH...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET SEVERE
WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS TO 65 OR 70 MPH. HAIL SEEMS LIKE MUCH
LESS OF A THREAT AND WOULD BE LARGELY SUB SEVERE. FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE HRRR AND RAP...WHICH HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR SIOUX CITY TO ORANGE CITY TO
WINDOM AROUND 6 OR 7 PM AND TRACKING EAST INTO THE EVENING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FIRE JUST OUTSIDE OF THE SIOUX
FALLS AREA...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT. ALSO LOWERED QPF
AMOUNTS QUITE A BIT GIVEN THE DRIER SCENARIO...BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN UNDER A THUNDERSTORM.

STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DECREASE A LITTLE AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES THEN TURN NORTHWEST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH. DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE WIND ADVISORY A FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE GOOD
TO EXPIRE AROUND 6 PM. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WINDS WILL BE ON AN
OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS WILL SETTLE CLOSER TO 5
TO 10 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE WEST TO
UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

COOLER AND BREEZY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE BY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN EXPECTED DEEP MIXING DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS IMPACTS FIRE WEATHER AND IS DESCRIBED
BELOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THE WAVE CROSSING THE
PLAINS WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY
SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR
ADVECTS IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING IN MORNING LOWS IN
THE 20S AND 30S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. WILL BE A
SUNNY DAY AND WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER THOUGH...MORE IN THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE.

A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES. SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY...ALLOWING
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. SO TRENDED HIGHS IN THAT
DIRECTION...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 50S AND 60S...POSSIBLY SOME
LOW 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS STRUGGLE
WITH MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF WAVES EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE LONGWAVE
WEST COAST TROUGH. AS OF NOW LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ELEVATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ELEVATED WARM
FRONT. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...COULD ALSO SEE SOME STRATUS
AND DRIZZLE. QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE THE LOW TRACKS AND HOW FAST
IT MOVES EAST. GEM AND GFS ARE IN ONE CAMP MOVING THE SURFACE LOW
OVERHEAD MONDAY AND EXITING TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
ECMWF KEEPING MORE OF THE ENERGY BACK AND MOVING THE LOW BY ON
TUESDAY. SO FOR NOW CAN JUST SAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. TRACK OF THE
LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE SEE A COLD RAIN OR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENT CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS A COOLER RAIN...WITH MAYBE A FEW
STORMS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT TRACK...AND CAN NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN...SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS. ANOTHER WAVE MAY BRING ANOTHER
PRECIPITATION THREAT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SO MAIN STORY WILL BE
THE MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION THREAT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM JUST EAST OF FSD THIS EVENING ALONG
AN ADVANCING LOW LVL FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
EAST OF FSD. AT KSUX...PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. WILL BE MONITORING CONVECTION FURTHER
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT IN NEBRASKA. THIS CONVECTION COULD
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CLIP THE AIRPORT WITHIN A THE
STRATIFORM REGION AFTER 02Z.

OTHERWISE...ONCE CONVECTION MOVES EAST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER GUSTY...BUT VFR...DAY EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TURNING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND
IT. UPGRADED SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR RH VALUES TO
DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 35
MPH RANGE. KEPT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA OUT FOR NOW.
WINDS ARE MORE BORDERLINE THERE...15 TO 30 MPH AND RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT FIRE THREAT. HOWEVER IF
RAIN TONIGHT ENDS UP MORE SCATTERED OR LESS THAN EXPECTED...MIDNIGHT
SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER INCLUDING THEM IN THE RED FLAG WARNING
AS WELL.

THE LOW RH CONTINUES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...15 TO 25
PERCENT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER. GENERALLY 10 TO 25 MPH ON
FRIDAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND 10 TO 20 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP US BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BOTH
DAYS...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER GIVEN DRY
FUELS AND LOW RH.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR SDZ255>258.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ900.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...DUX
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 012345
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
645 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE
FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED SOME...MOISTURE RETURNS HAVE ALSO
BEEN SLOW. DEWPOINTS ARE JUST STARTING TO BUILD INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE 50+ READINGS STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CAPE VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL...HOWEVER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRONG INVERTED V WITH A LONG AND SKINNY CAPE AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF INITIATION IS A BIT LATER THAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE
BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WOULD BE IN THE EARLY EVENING...WITH
STORMS QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE. THESE STORMS WILL
PROGRESS EAST WITH THE FRONT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE...BUT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SURFACE WINDS
ALREADY AVERAGING 25 TO 35 MPH...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET SEVERE
WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS TO 65 OR 70 MPH. HAIL SEEMS LIKE MUCH
LESS OF A THREAT AND WOULD BE LARGELY SUB SEVERE. FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE HRRR AND RAP...WHICH HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR SIOUX CITY TO ORANGE CITY TO
WINDOM AROUND 6 OR 7 PM AND TRACKING EAST INTO THE EVENING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FIRE JUST OUTSIDE OF THE SIOUX
FALLS AREA...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT. ALSO LOWERED QPF
AMOUNTS QUITE A BIT GIVEN THE DRIER SCENARIO...BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN UNDER A THUNDERSTORM.

STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DECREASE A LITTLE AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES THEN TURN NORTHWEST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH. DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE WIND ADVISORY A FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE GOOD
TO EXPIRE AROUND 6 PM. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WINDS WILL BE ON AN
OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS WILL SETTLE CLOSER TO 5
TO 10 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE WEST TO
UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

COOLER AND BREEZY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE BY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN EXPECTED DEEP MIXING DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS IMPACTS FIRE WEATHER AND IS DESCRIBED
BELOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THE WAVE CROSSING THE
PLAINS WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY
SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR
ADVECTS IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING IN MORNING LOWS IN
THE 20S AND 30S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. WILL BE A
SUNNY DAY AND WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER THOUGH...MORE IN THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE.

A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES. SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY...ALLOWING
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. SO TRENDED HIGHS IN THAT
DIRECTION...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 50S AND 60S...POSSIBLY SOME
LOW 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS STRUGGLE
WITH MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF WAVES EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE LONGWAVE
WEST COAST TROUGH. AS OF NOW LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ELEVATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ELEVATED WARM
FRONT. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...COULD ALSO SEE SOME STRATUS
AND DRIZZLE. QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE THE LOW TRACKS AND HOW FAST
IT MOVES EAST. GEM AND GFS ARE IN ONE CAMP MOVING THE SURFACE LOW
OVERHEAD MONDAY AND EXITING TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
ECMWF KEEPING MORE OF THE ENERGY BACK AND MOVING THE LOW BY ON
TUESDAY. SO FOR NOW CAN JUST SAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. TRACK OF THE
LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE SEE A COLD RAIN OR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENT CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS A COOLER RAIN...WITH MAYBE A FEW
STORMS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT TRACK...AND CAN NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN...SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS. ANOTHER WAVE MAY BRING ANOTHER
PRECIPITATION THREAT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SO MAIN STORY WILL BE
THE MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION THREAT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM JUST EAST OF FSD THIS EVENING ALONG
AN ADVANCING LOW LVL FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
EAST OF FSD. AT KSUX...PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. WILL BE MONITORING CONVECTION FURTHER
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT IN NEBRASKA. THIS CONVECTION COULD
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CLIP THE AIRPORT WITHIN A THE
STRATIFORM REGION AFTER 02Z.

OTHERWISE...ONCE CONVECTION MOVES EAST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER GUSTY...BUT VFR...DAY EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TURNING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND
IT. UPGRADED SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR RH VALUES TO
DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 35
MPH RANGE. KEPT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA OUT FOR NOW.
WINDS ARE MORE BORDERLINE THERE...15 TO 30 MPH AND RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT FIRE THREAT. HOWEVER IF
RAIN TONIGHT ENDS UP MORE SCATTERED OR LESS THAN EXPECTED...MIDNIGHT
SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER INCLUDING THEM IN THE RED FLAG WARNING
AS WELL.

THE LOW RH CONTINUES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...15 TO 25
PERCENT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER. GENERALLY 10 TO 25 MPH ON
FRIDAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND 10 TO 20 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP US BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BOTH
DAYS...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER GIVEN DRY
FUELS AND LOW RH.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR SDZ255>258.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ900.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...DUX
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KUNR 012335
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
535 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING
TO DECREASE AS THE SFC LOW KICKS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...SO WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RH RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW THIS EVENING
AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ARE BEING REPORTED.
HOWEVER DIURNAL COOLING AND THE DECREASING WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVE FIRE WEATHER DANGER AFTER DARK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
50 KTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECTING ANOTHER WINDY DAY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
AT TIMES ARE LIKELY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S WITH COOLER READINGS IN THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWEST
WYO. TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED ON THE DRY SIDE. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY AS PRECIP
REMAINS CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF EASTERN IDAHO AND INTO
SOUTHEAST WYO. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR NORTHEAST
WYO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST SD DURING THE AFTERNOON...CAN`T RULE OUT
THAT A SHOWER OR TWO WILL CLIP THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LIE MAINLY WITH LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT BEGIN TO
DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD. THIS AIR WILL BE DRIER AS WELL WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE
SEEN FROM THE MODELS SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON FRIDAY...THE COLDER AIR WILL
PUSH EASTWARD ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM BELOW
0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT TO A RANGE OF 0C
TO 5C /EAST TO WEST/. WITH THIS WARMER AIR MOVING IN...LOOKING FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH WILL BE A BIT COOLER. DO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF MONTANA
AND INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT
LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER...BUT ALSO SHOWS DECENT
LIFT IN THE SATURATED LAYER SO FELT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WITH LIGHT QPF/S OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THOSE AREAS.

AFTER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. VERY LITTLE
IN TERMS OF MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN THROUGH ANY LEVELS SO
ANTICIPATING LITTLE CLOUD COVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WITH THE WARM AIR-MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME AREA MAY SEE HIGHER WINDS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS FORECASTED IN THE 30S. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG A BIT
BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. CONCURRENTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO WYOMING WHICH WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES IN THROUGH THE DAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WARM AIR AND MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

AGAIN...THE MODEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE GFS AND GEM PUSH OUT AN INITIAL WAVE INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...THEN KEEP A THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OFF-SHORE. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM OFF SHORE WHILE BRINGING
MUCH WEAKER ENERGY INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK AND IS VERY
SLOW TO START TRANSITIONING THE THE MAIN SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
CONUS.THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS WAS USED...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...COOLER AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR THE BLACK HILLS AND POSSIBLY
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA MOST NIGHTS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...DROPPING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WINDS WILL RESTRENGTHEN AFTER 14Z
THURSDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS
LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND MAY DROP A LITTLE
FURTHER IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO RECOVER EARLY
THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH HAVE BEEN
ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW...BUT SHOULD BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS A DEEPENING AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL MORE RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER COOLER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025-026-030>032-043-046-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN









000
FXUS63 KUNR 012335
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
535 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING
TO DECREASE AS THE SFC LOW KICKS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...SO WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RH RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW THIS EVENING
AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ARE BEING REPORTED.
HOWEVER DIURNAL COOLING AND THE DECREASING WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVE FIRE WEATHER DANGER AFTER DARK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
50 KTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECTING ANOTHER WINDY DAY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
AT TIMES ARE LIKELY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S WITH COOLER READINGS IN THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWEST
WYO. TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED ON THE DRY SIDE. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY AS PRECIP
REMAINS CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF EASTERN IDAHO AND INTO
SOUTHEAST WYO. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR NORTHEAST
WYO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST SD DURING THE AFTERNOON...CAN`T RULE OUT
THAT A SHOWER OR TWO WILL CLIP THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LIE MAINLY WITH LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT BEGIN TO
DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD. THIS AIR WILL BE DRIER AS WELL WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE
SEEN FROM THE MODELS SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON FRIDAY...THE COLDER AIR WILL
PUSH EASTWARD ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM BELOW
0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT TO A RANGE OF 0C
TO 5C /EAST TO WEST/. WITH THIS WARMER AIR MOVING IN...LOOKING FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH WILL BE A BIT COOLER. DO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF MONTANA
AND INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT
LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER...BUT ALSO SHOWS DECENT
LIFT IN THE SATURATED LAYER SO FELT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WITH LIGHT QPF/S OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THOSE AREAS.

AFTER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. VERY LITTLE
IN TERMS OF MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN THROUGH ANY LEVELS SO
ANTICIPATING LITTLE CLOUD COVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WITH THE WARM AIR-MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME AREA MAY SEE HIGHER WINDS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS FORECASTED IN THE 30S. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG A BIT
BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. CONCURRENTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO WYOMING WHICH WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES IN THROUGH THE DAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WARM AIR AND MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

AGAIN...THE MODEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE GFS AND GEM PUSH OUT AN INITIAL WAVE INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...THEN KEEP A THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OFF-SHORE. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM OFF SHORE WHILE BRINGING
MUCH WEAKER ENERGY INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK AND IS VERY
SLOW TO START TRANSITIONING THE THE MAIN SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
CONUS.THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS WAS USED...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...COOLER AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR THE BLACK HILLS AND POSSIBLY
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA MOST NIGHTS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...DROPPING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WINDS WILL RESTRENGTHEN AFTER 14Z
THURSDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS
LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND MAY DROP A LITTLE
FURTHER IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO RECOVER EARLY
THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH HAVE BEEN
ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW...BUT SHOULD BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS A DEEPENING AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL MORE RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER COOLER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025-026-030>032-043-046-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN









000
FXUS63 KUNR 012335
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
535 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING
TO DECREASE AS THE SFC LOW KICKS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...SO WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RH RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW THIS EVENING
AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ARE BEING REPORTED.
HOWEVER DIURNAL COOLING AND THE DECREASING WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVE FIRE WEATHER DANGER AFTER DARK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
50 KTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECTING ANOTHER WINDY DAY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
AT TIMES ARE LIKELY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S WITH COOLER READINGS IN THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWEST
WYO. TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED ON THE DRY SIDE. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY AS PRECIP
REMAINS CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF EASTERN IDAHO AND INTO
SOUTHEAST WYO. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR NORTHEAST
WYO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST SD DURING THE AFTERNOON...CAN`T RULE OUT
THAT A SHOWER OR TWO WILL CLIP THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LIE MAINLY WITH LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT BEGIN TO
DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD. THIS AIR WILL BE DRIER AS WELL WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE
SEEN FROM THE MODELS SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON FRIDAY...THE COLDER AIR WILL
PUSH EASTWARD ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM BELOW
0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT TO A RANGE OF 0C
TO 5C /EAST TO WEST/. WITH THIS WARMER AIR MOVING IN...LOOKING FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH WILL BE A BIT COOLER. DO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF MONTANA
AND INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT
LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER...BUT ALSO SHOWS DECENT
LIFT IN THE SATURATED LAYER SO FELT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WITH LIGHT QPF/S OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THOSE AREAS.

AFTER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. VERY LITTLE
IN TERMS OF MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN THROUGH ANY LEVELS SO
ANTICIPATING LITTLE CLOUD COVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WITH THE WARM AIR-MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME AREA MAY SEE HIGHER WINDS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS FORECASTED IN THE 30S. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG A BIT
BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. CONCURRENTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO WYOMING WHICH WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES IN THROUGH THE DAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WARM AIR AND MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

AGAIN...THE MODEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE GFS AND GEM PUSH OUT AN INITIAL WAVE INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...THEN KEEP A THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OFF-SHORE. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM OFF SHORE WHILE BRINGING
MUCH WEAKER ENERGY INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK AND IS VERY
SLOW TO START TRANSITIONING THE THE MAIN SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
CONUS.THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS WAS USED...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...COOLER AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR THE BLACK HILLS AND POSSIBLY
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA MOST NIGHTS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...DROPPING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WINDS WILL RESTRENGTHEN AFTER 14Z
THURSDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS
LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND MAY DROP A LITTLE
FURTHER IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO RECOVER EARLY
THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH HAVE BEEN
ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW...BUT SHOULD BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS A DEEPENING AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL MORE RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER COOLER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025-026-030>032-043-046-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN









000
FXUS63 KUNR 012335
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
535 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING
TO DECREASE AS THE SFC LOW KICKS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...SO WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RH RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW THIS EVENING
AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ARE BEING REPORTED.
HOWEVER DIURNAL COOLING AND THE DECREASING WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVE FIRE WEATHER DANGER AFTER DARK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
50 KTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECTING ANOTHER WINDY DAY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
AT TIMES ARE LIKELY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S WITH COOLER READINGS IN THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWEST
WYO. TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED ON THE DRY SIDE. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY AS PRECIP
REMAINS CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF EASTERN IDAHO AND INTO
SOUTHEAST WYO. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR NORTHEAST
WYO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST SD DURING THE AFTERNOON...CAN`T RULE OUT
THAT A SHOWER OR TWO WILL CLIP THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LIE MAINLY WITH LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT BEGIN TO
DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD. THIS AIR WILL BE DRIER AS WELL WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE
SEEN FROM THE MODELS SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON FRIDAY...THE COLDER AIR WILL
PUSH EASTWARD ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM BELOW
0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT TO A RANGE OF 0C
TO 5C /EAST TO WEST/. WITH THIS WARMER AIR MOVING IN...LOOKING FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH WILL BE A BIT COOLER. DO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF MONTANA
AND INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT
LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER...BUT ALSO SHOWS DECENT
LIFT IN THE SATURATED LAYER SO FELT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WITH LIGHT QPF/S OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THOSE AREAS.

AFTER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. VERY LITTLE
IN TERMS OF MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN THROUGH ANY LEVELS SO
ANTICIPATING LITTLE CLOUD COVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WITH THE WARM AIR-MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME AREA MAY SEE HIGHER WINDS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS FORECASTED IN THE 30S. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG A BIT
BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. CONCURRENTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO WYOMING WHICH WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES IN THROUGH THE DAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WARM AIR AND MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

AGAIN...THE MODEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE GFS AND GEM PUSH OUT AN INITIAL WAVE INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...THEN KEEP A THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OFF-SHORE. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM OFF SHORE WHILE BRINGING
MUCH WEAKER ENERGY INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK AND IS VERY
SLOW TO START TRANSITIONING THE THE MAIN SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
CONUS.THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS WAS USED...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...COOLER AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR THE BLACK HILLS AND POSSIBLY
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA MOST NIGHTS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...DROPPING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WINDS WILL RESTRENGTHEN AFTER 14Z
THURSDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS
LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND MAY DROP A LITTLE
FURTHER IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO RECOVER EARLY
THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH HAVE BEEN
ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW...BUT SHOULD BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS A DEEPENING AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL MORE RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER COOLER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025-026-030>032-043-046-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN









000
FXUS63 KABR 012334 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
634 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY AS NO SITES ARE CURRENTLY REACHING
CRITERIA. HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND FIRE DANGER REMAINS A CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CHIEF CONCERN. SEVERAL FIRES ONGOING AT
TIME...THANKFULLY WE ARE AT PEAK PRESSURE RISES/PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SO ANTICIPATE WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH SETTING SUN.
THE GRADIENT WONT GET MUCH STRONGER FOR THURSDAY...HOWEVER
WESTERLY FLOW...WEAK COLD ADVECTION...AND SUN WILL LEAD TO
EFFICIENT MIXING...POTENTIALLY UP TO 700MB. MIXED DOWN WINDS TOP
OUT IN THE LOW END OF 30G40KTS...SO THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY...DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE. FRIDAY AM WILL BE THE COOLEST
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES -5 TO -9C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE QUIET AS THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE
LOW WILL HAVE DROPPED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLIDE
EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DROP JUST LOW ENOUGH BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR BECOME SNOW FOR
A TIME...BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. WILL
LEAVE WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S...THEN A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 KTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST THEN AGAIN TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ267>272.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
     THURSDAY FOR SDZ267>273.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE







000
FXUS63 KABR 012334 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
634 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY AS NO SITES ARE CURRENTLY REACHING
CRITERIA. HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND FIRE DANGER REMAINS A CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CHIEF CONCERN. SEVERAL FIRES ONGOING AT
TIME...THANKFULLY WE ARE AT PEAK PRESSURE RISES/PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SO ANTICIPATE WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH SETTING SUN.
THE GRADIENT WONT GET MUCH STRONGER FOR THURSDAY...HOWEVER
WESTERLY FLOW...WEAK COLD ADVECTION...AND SUN WILL LEAD TO
EFFICIENT MIXING...POTENTIALLY UP TO 700MB. MIXED DOWN WINDS TOP
OUT IN THE LOW END OF 30G40KTS...SO THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY...DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE. FRIDAY AM WILL BE THE COOLEST
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES -5 TO -9C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE QUIET AS THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE
LOW WILL HAVE DROPPED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLIDE
EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DROP JUST LOW ENOUGH BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR BECOME SNOW FOR
A TIME...BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. WILL
LEAVE WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S...THEN A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 KTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST THEN AGAIN TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ267>272.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
     THURSDAY FOR SDZ267>273.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE








000
FXUS63 KFSD 012107
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
407 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE
FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED SOME...MOISTURE RETURNS HAVE ALSO
BEEN SLOW. DEWPOINTS ARE JUST STARTING TO BUILD INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE 50+ READINGS STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CAPE VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL...HOWEVER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRONG INVERTED V WITH A LONG AND SKINNY CAPE AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF INITIATION IS A BIT LATER THAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE
BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WOULD BE IN THE EARLY EVENING...WITH
STORMS QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE. THESE STORMS WILL
PROGRESS EAST WITH THE FRONT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE...BUT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SURFACE WINDS
ALREADY AVERAGING 25 TO 35 MPH...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET SEVERE
WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS TO 65 OR 70 MPH. HAIL SEEMS LIKE MUCH
LESS OF A THREAT AND WOULD BE LARGELY SUB SEVERE. FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE HRRR AND RAP...WHICH HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR SIOUX CITY TO ORANGE CITY TO
WINDOM AROUND 6 OR 7 PM AND TRACKING EAST INTO THE EVENING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FIRE JUST OUTSIDE OF THE SIOUX
FALLS AREA...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT. ALSO LOWERED QPF
AMOUNTS QUITE A BIT GIVEN THE DRIER SCENARIO...BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN UNDER A THUNDERSTORM.

STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DECREASE A LITTLE AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES THEN TURN NORTHWEST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH. DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE WIND ADVISORY A FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE GOOD
TO EXPIRE AROUND 6 PM. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WINDS WILL BE ON AN
OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS WILL SETTLE CLOSER TO 5
TO 10 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE WEST TO
UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

COOLER AND BREEZY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE BY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN EXPECTED DEEP MIXING DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS IMPACTS FIRE WEATHER AND IS DESCRIBED
BELOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THE WAVE CROSSING THE
PLAINS WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY
SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR
ADVECTS IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING IN MORNING LOWS IN
THE 20S AND 30S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. WILL BE A
SUNNY DAY AND WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER THOUGH...MORE IN THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE.

A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES. SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY...ALLOWING
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. SO TRENDED HIGHS IN THAT
DIRECTION...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 50S AND 60S...POSSIBLY SOME
LOW 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS STRUGGLE
WITH MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF WAVES EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE LONGWAVE
WEST COAST TROUGH. AS OF NOW LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ELEVATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ELEVATED WARM
FRONT. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...COULD ALSO SEE SOME STRATUS
AND DRIZZLE. QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE THE LOW TRACKS AND HOW FAST
IT MOVES EAST. GEM AND GFS ARE IN ONE CAMP MOVING THE SURFACE LOW
OVERHEAD MONDAY AND EXITING TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
ECMWF KEEPING MORE OF THE ENERGY BACK AND MOVING THE LOW BY ON
TUESDAY. SO FOR NOW CAN JUST SAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. TRACK OF THE
LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE SEE A COLD RAIN OR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENT CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS A COOLER RAIN...WITH MAYBE A FEW
STORMS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT TRACK...AND CAN NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN...SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS. ANOTHER WAVE MAY BRING ANOTHER
PRECIPITATION THREAT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SO MAIN STORY WILL BE
THE MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION THREAT NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS...A SHARP
WIND SHIFT AND CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. COLD FRONT
IS NOW MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN BORDER AND WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH AROUND 03Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...VERY
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND ARE AVERAGING 20 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 15 TO 25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...OVERALL WIND SPEEDS
DECREASE...THEN DROP TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 06Z. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON -
AFTER 22Z...THROUGH AROUND 04Z...PRIMARILY EAST OF A SIOUX CITY
TO ORANGE CITY TO WINDOM LINE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY STORMS
WOULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF FSD...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS. ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60KT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TURNING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND
IT. UPGRADED SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR RH VALUES TO
DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 35
MPH RANGE. KEPT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA OUT FOR NOW.
WINDS ARE MORE BORDERLINE THERE...15 TO 30 MPH AND RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT FIRE THREAT. HOWEVER IF
RAIN TONIGHT ENDS UP MORE SCATTERED OR LESS THAN EXPECTED...MIDNIGHT
SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER INCLUDING THEM IN THE RED FLAG WARNING
AS WELL.

THE LOW RH CONTINUES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...15 TO 25
PERCENT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER. GENERALLY 10 TO 25 MPH ON
FRIDAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND 10 TO 20 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP US BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BOTH
DAYS...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER GIVEN DRY
FUELS AND LOW RH.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR SDZ255>258.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040-055-056-062.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ900.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097-098.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
     021-022-032.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 012107
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
407 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE
FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED SOME...MOISTURE RETURNS HAVE ALSO
BEEN SLOW. DEWPOINTS ARE JUST STARTING TO BUILD INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE 50+ READINGS STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CAPE VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL...HOWEVER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRONG INVERTED V WITH A LONG AND SKINNY CAPE AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF INITIATION IS A BIT LATER THAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE
BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WOULD BE IN THE EARLY EVENING...WITH
STORMS QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE. THESE STORMS WILL
PROGRESS EAST WITH THE FRONT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE...BUT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SURFACE WINDS
ALREADY AVERAGING 25 TO 35 MPH...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET SEVERE
WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS TO 65 OR 70 MPH. HAIL SEEMS LIKE MUCH
LESS OF A THREAT AND WOULD BE LARGELY SUB SEVERE. FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE HRRR AND RAP...WHICH HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR SIOUX CITY TO ORANGE CITY TO
WINDOM AROUND 6 OR 7 PM AND TRACKING EAST INTO THE EVENING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FIRE JUST OUTSIDE OF THE SIOUX
FALLS AREA...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT. ALSO LOWERED QPF
AMOUNTS QUITE A BIT GIVEN THE DRIER SCENARIO...BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN UNDER A THUNDERSTORM.

STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DECREASE A LITTLE AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES THEN TURN NORTHWEST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH. DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE WIND ADVISORY A FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE GOOD
TO EXPIRE AROUND 6 PM. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WINDS WILL BE ON AN
OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS WILL SETTLE CLOSER TO 5
TO 10 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE WEST TO
UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

COOLER AND BREEZY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE BY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN EXPECTED DEEP MIXING DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS IMPACTS FIRE WEATHER AND IS DESCRIBED
BELOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THE WAVE CROSSING THE
PLAINS WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY
SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR
ADVECTS IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING IN MORNING LOWS IN
THE 20S AND 30S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. WILL BE A
SUNNY DAY AND WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER THOUGH...MORE IN THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE.

A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES. SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY...ALLOWING
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. SO TRENDED HIGHS IN THAT
DIRECTION...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 50S AND 60S...POSSIBLY SOME
LOW 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS STRUGGLE
WITH MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF WAVES EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE LONGWAVE
WEST COAST TROUGH. AS OF NOW LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ELEVATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ELEVATED WARM
FRONT. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...COULD ALSO SEE SOME STRATUS
AND DRIZZLE. QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE THE LOW TRACKS AND HOW FAST
IT MOVES EAST. GEM AND GFS ARE IN ONE CAMP MOVING THE SURFACE LOW
OVERHEAD MONDAY AND EXITING TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
ECMWF KEEPING MORE OF THE ENERGY BACK AND MOVING THE LOW BY ON
TUESDAY. SO FOR NOW CAN JUST SAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. TRACK OF THE
LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE SEE A COLD RAIN OR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENT CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS A COOLER RAIN...WITH MAYBE A FEW
STORMS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT TRACK...AND CAN NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN...SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS. ANOTHER WAVE MAY BRING ANOTHER
PRECIPITATION THREAT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SO MAIN STORY WILL BE
THE MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION THREAT NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS...A SHARP
WIND SHIFT AND CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. COLD FRONT
IS NOW MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN BORDER AND WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH AROUND 03Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...VERY
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND ARE AVERAGING 20 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 15 TO 25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...OVERALL WIND SPEEDS
DECREASE...THEN DROP TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 06Z. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON -
AFTER 22Z...THROUGH AROUND 04Z...PRIMARILY EAST OF A SIOUX CITY
TO ORANGE CITY TO WINDOM LINE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY STORMS
WOULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF FSD...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS. ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60KT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TURNING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND
IT. UPGRADED SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR RH VALUES TO
DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 35
MPH RANGE. KEPT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA OUT FOR NOW.
WINDS ARE MORE BORDERLINE THERE...15 TO 30 MPH AND RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT FIRE THREAT. HOWEVER IF
RAIN TONIGHT ENDS UP MORE SCATTERED OR LESS THAN EXPECTED...MIDNIGHT
SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER INCLUDING THEM IN THE RED FLAG WARNING
AS WELL.

THE LOW RH CONTINUES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...15 TO 25
PERCENT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER. GENERALLY 10 TO 25 MPH ON
FRIDAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND 10 TO 20 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP US BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BOTH
DAYS...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER GIVEN DRY
FUELS AND LOW RH.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR SDZ255>258.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040-055-056-062.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ900.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097-098.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
     021-022-032.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 012107
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
407 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE
FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED SOME...MOISTURE RETURNS HAVE ALSO
BEEN SLOW. DEWPOINTS ARE JUST STARTING TO BUILD INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE 50+ READINGS STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CAPE VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL...HOWEVER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRONG INVERTED V WITH A LONG AND SKINNY CAPE AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF INITIATION IS A BIT LATER THAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE
BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WOULD BE IN THE EARLY EVENING...WITH
STORMS QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE. THESE STORMS WILL
PROGRESS EAST WITH THE FRONT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE...BUT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SURFACE WINDS
ALREADY AVERAGING 25 TO 35 MPH...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET SEVERE
WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS TO 65 OR 70 MPH. HAIL SEEMS LIKE MUCH
LESS OF A THREAT AND WOULD BE LARGELY SUB SEVERE. FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE HRRR AND RAP...WHICH HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR SIOUX CITY TO ORANGE CITY TO
WINDOM AROUND 6 OR 7 PM AND TRACKING EAST INTO THE EVENING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FIRE JUST OUTSIDE OF THE SIOUX
FALLS AREA...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT. ALSO LOWERED QPF
AMOUNTS QUITE A BIT GIVEN THE DRIER SCENARIO...BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN UNDER A THUNDERSTORM.

STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DECREASE A LITTLE AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES THEN TURN NORTHWEST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH. DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE WIND ADVISORY A FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE GOOD
TO EXPIRE AROUND 6 PM. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WINDS WILL BE ON AN
OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS WILL SETTLE CLOSER TO 5
TO 10 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE WEST TO
UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

COOLER AND BREEZY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE BY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN EXPECTED DEEP MIXING DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS IMPACTS FIRE WEATHER AND IS DESCRIBED
BELOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THE WAVE CROSSING THE
PLAINS WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY
SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR
ADVECTS IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING IN MORNING LOWS IN
THE 20S AND 30S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. WILL BE A
SUNNY DAY AND WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER THOUGH...MORE IN THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE.

A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES. SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY...ALLOWING
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. SO TRENDED HIGHS IN THAT
DIRECTION...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 50S AND 60S...POSSIBLY SOME
LOW 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS STRUGGLE
WITH MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF WAVES EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE LONGWAVE
WEST COAST TROUGH. AS OF NOW LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ELEVATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ELEVATED WARM
FRONT. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...COULD ALSO SEE SOME STRATUS
AND DRIZZLE. QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE THE LOW TRACKS AND HOW FAST
IT MOVES EAST. GEM AND GFS ARE IN ONE CAMP MOVING THE SURFACE LOW
OVERHEAD MONDAY AND EXITING TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
ECMWF KEEPING MORE OF THE ENERGY BACK AND MOVING THE LOW BY ON
TUESDAY. SO FOR NOW CAN JUST SAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. TRACK OF THE
LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE SEE A COLD RAIN OR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENT CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS A COOLER RAIN...WITH MAYBE A FEW
STORMS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT TRACK...AND CAN NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN...SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS. ANOTHER WAVE MAY BRING ANOTHER
PRECIPITATION THREAT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SO MAIN STORY WILL BE
THE MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION THREAT NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS...A SHARP
WIND SHIFT AND CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. COLD FRONT
IS NOW MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN BORDER AND WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH AROUND 03Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...VERY
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND ARE AVERAGING 20 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 15 TO 25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...OVERALL WIND SPEEDS
DECREASE...THEN DROP TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 06Z. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON -
AFTER 22Z...THROUGH AROUND 04Z...PRIMARILY EAST OF A SIOUX CITY
TO ORANGE CITY TO WINDOM LINE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY STORMS
WOULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF FSD...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS. ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60KT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TURNING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND
IT. UPGRADED SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR RH VALUES TO
DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 35
MPH RANGE. KEPT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA OUT FOR NOW.
WINDS ARE MORE BORDERLINE THERE...15 TO 30 MPH AND RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT FIRE THREAT. HOWEVER IF
RAIN TONIGHT ENDS UP MORE SCATTERED OR LESS THAN EXPECTED...MIDNIGHT
SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER INCLUDING THEM IN THE RED FLAG WARNING
AS WELL.

THE LOW RH CONTINUES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...15 TO 25
PERCENT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER. GENERALLY 10 TO 25 MPH ON
FRIDAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND 10 TO 20 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP US BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BOTH
DAYS...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER GIVEN DRY
FUELS AND LOW RH.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR SDZ255>258.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040-055-056-062.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ900.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097-098.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
     021-022-032.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KUNR 012105 CCA
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
248 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING
TO DECREASE AS THE SFC LOW KICKS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...SO WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RH RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW THIS EVENING
AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ARE BEING REPORTED.
HOWEVER DIURNAL COOLING AND THE DECREASING WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVE FIRE WEATHER DANGER AFTER DARK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
50 KTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECTING ANOTHER WINDY DAY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
AT TIMES ARE LIKELY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S WITH COOLER READINGS IN THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWEST
WYO. TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED ON THE DRY SIDE. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY AS PRECIP
REMAINS CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF EASTERN IDAHO AND INTO
SOUTHEAST WYO. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR NORTHEAST
WYO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST SD DURING THE AFTERNOON...CAN`T RULE OUT
THAT A SHOWER OR TWO WILL CLIP THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LIE MAINLY WITH LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT BEGIN TO
DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD. THIS AIR WILL BE DRIER AS WELL WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE
SEEN FROM THE MODELS SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON FRIDAY...THE COLDER AIR WILL
PUSH EASTWARD ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM BELOW
0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT TO A RANGE OF 0C
TO 5C /EAST TO WEST/. WITH THIS WARMER AIR MOVING IN...LOOKING FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH WILL BE A BIT COOLER. DO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF MONTANA
AND INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT
LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER...BUT ALSO SHOWS DECENT
LIFT IN THE SATURATED LAYER SO FELT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WITH LIGHT QPF/S OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THOSE AREAS.

AFTER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. VERY LITTLE
IN TERMS OF MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN THROUGH ANY LEVELS SO
ANTICIPATING LITTLE CLOUD COVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WITH THE WARM AIR-MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME AREA MAY SEE HIGHER WINDS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS FORECASTED IN THE 30S. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG A BIT
BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. CONCURRENTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO WYOMING WHICH WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES IN THROUGH THE DAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WARM AIR AND MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

AGAIN...THE MODEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE GFS AND GEM PUSH OUT AN INITIAL WAVE INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...THEN KEEP A THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OFF-SHORE. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM OFF SHORE WHILE BRINGING
MUCH WEAKER ENERGY INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK AND IS VERY
SLOW TO START TRANSITIONING THE THE MAIN SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
CONUS.THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS WAS USED...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...COOLER AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR THE BLACK HILLS AND POSSIBLY
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA MOST NIGHTS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS..WHICH ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE RELAXING TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND MAY DROP A LITTLE
FURTHER IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO RECOVER EARLY
THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH HAVE BEEN
ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW...BUT SHOULD BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS A DEEPENING AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL MORE RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER COOLER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025-026-030>032-043-046-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KUNR 012105 CCA
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
248 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING
TO DECREASE AS THE SFC LOW KICKS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...SO WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RH RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW THIS EVENING
AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ARE BEING REPORTED.
HOWEVER DIURNAL COOLING AND THE DECREASING WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVE FIRE WEATHER DANGER AFTER DARK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
50 KTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECTING ANOTHER WINDY DAY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
AT TIMES ARE LIKELY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S WITH COOLER READINGS IN THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWEST
WYO. TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED ON THE DRY SIDE. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY AS PRECIP
REMAINS CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF EASTERN IDAHO AND INTO
SOUTHEAST WYO. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR NORTHEAST
WYO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST SD DURING THE AFTERNOON...CAN`T RULE OUT
THAT A SHOWER OR TWO WILL CLIP THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LIE MAINLY WITH LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT BEGIN TO
DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD. THIS AIR WILL BE DRIER AS WELL WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE
SEEN FROM THE MODELS SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON FRIDAY...THE COLDER AIR WILL
PUSH EASTWARD ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM BELOW
0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT TO A RANGE OF 0C
TO 5C /EAST TO WEST/. WITH THIS WARMER AIR MOVING IN...LOOKING FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH WILL BE A BIT COOLER. DO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF MONTANA
AND INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT
LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER...BUT ALSO SHOWS DECENT
LIFT IN THE SATURATED LAYER SO FELT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WITH LIGHT QPF/S OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THOSE AREAS.

AFTER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. VERY LITTLE
IN TERMS OF MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN THROUGH ANY LEVELS SO
ANTICIPATING LITTLE CLOUD COVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WITH THE WARM AIR-MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME AREA MAY SEE HIGHER WINDS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS FORECASTED IN THE 30S. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG A BIT
BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. CONCURRENTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO WYOMING WHICH WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES IN THROUGH THE DAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WARM AIR AND MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

AGAIN...THE MODEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE GFS AND GEM PUSH OUT AN INITIAL WAVE INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...THEN KEEP A THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OFF-SHORE. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM OFF SHORE WHILE BRINGING
MUCH WEAKER ENERGY INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK AND IS VERY
SLOW TO START TRANSITIONING THE THE MAIN SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
CONUS.THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS WAS USED...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...COOLER AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR THE BLACK HILLS AND POSSIBLY
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA MOST NIGHTS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS..WHICH ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE RELAXING TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND MAY DROP A LITTLE
FURTHER IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO RECOVER EARLY
THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH HAVE BEEN
ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW...BUT SHOULD BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS A DEEPENING AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL MORE RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER COOLER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025-026-030>032-043-046-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KUNR 012105 CCA
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
248 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING
TO DECREASE AS THE SFC LOW KICKS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...SO WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RH RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW THIS EVENING
AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ARE BEING REPORTED.
HOWEVER DIURNAL COOLING AND THE DECREASING WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVE FIRE WEATHER DANGER AFTER DARK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
50 KTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECTING ANOTHER WINDY DAY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
AT TIMES ARE LIKELY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S WITH COOLER READINGS IN THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWEST
WYO. TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED ON THE DRY SIDE. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY AS PRECIP
REMAINS CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF EASTERN IDAHO AND INTO
SOUTHEAST WYO. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR NORTHEAST
WYO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST SD DURING THE AFTERNOON...CAN`T RULE OUT
THAT A SHOWER OR TWO WILL CLIP THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LIE MAINLY WITH LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT BEGIN TO
DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD. THIS AIR WILL BE DRIER AS WELL WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE
SEEN FROM THE MODELS SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON FRIDAY...THE COLDER AIR WILL
PUSH EASTWARD ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM BELOW
0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT TO A RANGE OF 0C
TO 5C /EAST TO WEST/. WITH THIS WARMER AIR MOVING IN...LOOKING FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH WILL BE A BIT COOLER. DO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF MONTANA
AND INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT
LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER...BUT ALSO SHOWS DECENT
LIFT IN THE SATURATED LAYER SO FELT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WITH LIGHT QPF/S OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THOSE AREAS.

AFTER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. VERY LITTLE
IN TERMS OF MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN THROUGH ANY LEVELS SO
ANTICIPATING LITTLE CLOUD COVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WITH THE WARM AIR-MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME AREA MAY SEE HIGHER WINDS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS FORECASTED IN THE 30S. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG A BIT
BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. CONCURRENTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO WYOMING WHICH WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES IN THROUGH THE DAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WARM AIR AND MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

AGAIN...THE MODEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE GFS AND GEM PUSH OUT AN INITIAL WAVE INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...THEN KEEP A THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OFF-SHORE. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM OFF SHORE WHILE BRINGING
MUCH WEAKER ENERGY INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK AND IS VERY
SLOW TO START TRANSITIONING THE THE MAIN SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
CONUS.THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS WAS USED...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...COOLER AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR THE BLACK HILLS AND POSSIBLY
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA MOST NIGHTS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS..WHICH ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE RELAXING TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND MAY DROP A LITTLE
FURTHER IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO RECOVER EARLY
THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH HAVE BEEN
ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW...BUT SHOULD BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS A DEEPENING AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL MORE RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER COOLER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025-026-030>032-043-046-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KUNR 012105 CCA
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
248 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING
TO DECREASE AS THE SFC LOW KICKS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...SO WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RH RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW THIS EVENING
AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ARE BEING REPORTED.
HOWEVER DIURNAL COOLING AND THE DECREASING WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVE FIRE WEATHER DANGER AFTER DARK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
50 KTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECTING ANOTHER WINDY DAY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
AT TIMES ARE LIKELY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S WITH COOLER READINGS IN THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWEST
WYO. TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED ON THE DRY SIDE. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY AS PRECIP
REMAINS CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF EASTERN IDAHO AND INTO
SOUTHEAST WYO. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR NORTHEAST
WYO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST SD DURING THE AFTERNOON...CAN`T RULE OUT
THAT A SHOWER OR TWO WILL CLIP THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LIE MAINLY WITH LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT BEGIN TO
DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD. THIS AIR WILL BE DRIER AS WELL WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE
SEEN FROM THE MODELS SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON FRIDAY...THE COLDER AIR WILL
PUSH EASTWARD ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM BELOW
0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT TO A RANGE OF 0C
TO 5C /EAST TO WEST/. WITH THIS WARMER AIR MOVING IN...LOOKING FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH WILL BE A BIT COOLER. DO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF MONTANA
AND INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT
LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER...BUT ALSO SHOWS DECENT
LIFT IN THE SATURATED LAYER SO FELT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WITH LIGHT QPF/S OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THOSE AREAS.

AFTER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. VERY LITTLE
IN TERMS OF MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN THROUGH ANY LEVELS SO
ANTICIPATING LITTLE CLOUD COVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WITH THE WARM AIR-MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME AREA MAY SEE HIGHER WINDS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS FORECASTED IN THE 30S. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG A BIT
BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. CONCURRENTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO WYOMING WHICH WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES IN THROUGH THE DAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WARM AIR AND MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

AGAIN...THE MODEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE GFS AND GEM PUSH OUT AN INITIAL WAVE INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...THEN KEEP A THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OFF-SHORE. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM OFF SHORE WHILE BRINGING
MUCH WEAKER ENERGY INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK AND IS VERY
SLOW TO START TRANSITIONING THE THE MAIN SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
CONUS.THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS WAS USED...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...COOLER AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR THE BLACK HILLS AND POSSIBLY
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA MOST NIGHTS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS..WHICH ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE RELAXING TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND MAY DROP A LITTLE
FURTHER IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO RECOVER EARLY
THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH HAVE BEEN
ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW...BUT SHOULD BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS A DEEPENING AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL MORE RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER COOLER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025-026-030>032-043-046-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KUNR 012105 CCA
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
248 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING
TO DECREASE AS THE SFC LOW KICKS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...SO WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RH RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW THIS EVENING
AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ARE BEING REPORTED.
HOWEVER DIURNAL COOLING AND THE DECREASING WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVE FIRE WEATHER DANGER AFTER DARK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
50 KTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECTING ANOTHER WINDY DAY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
AT TIMES ARE LIKELY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S WITH COOLER READINGS IN THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWEST
WYO. TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED ON THE DRY SIDE. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY AS PRECIP
REMAINS CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF EASTERN IDAHO AND INTO
SOUTHEAST WYO. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR NORTHEAST
WYO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST SD DURING THE AFTERNOON...CAN`T RULE OUT
THAT A SHOWER OR TWO WILL CLIP THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LIE MAINLY WITH LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT BEGIN TO
DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD. THIS AIR WILL BE DRIER AS WELL WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE
SEEN FROM THE MODELS SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON FRIDAY...THE COLDER AIR WILL
PUSH EASTWARD ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM BELOW
0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT TO A RANGE OF 0C
TO 5C /EAST TO WEST/. WITH THIS WARMER AIR MOVING IN...LOOKING FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH WILL BE A BIT COOLER. DO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF MONTANA
AND INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT
LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER...BUT ALSO SHOWS DECENT
LIFT IN THE SATURATED LAYER SO FELT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WITH LIGHT QPF/S OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THOSE AREAS.

AFTER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. VERY LITTLE
IN TERMS OF MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN THROUGH ANY LEVELS SO
ANTICIPATING LITTLE CLOUD COVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WITH THE WARM AIR-MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME AREA MAY SEE HIGHER WINDS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS FORECASTED IN THE 30S. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG A BIT
BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. CONCURRENTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO WYOMING WHICH WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES IN THROUGH THE DAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WARM AIR AND MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

AGAIN...THE MODEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE GFS AND GEM PUSH OUT AN INITIAL WAVE INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...THEN KEEP A THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OFF-SHORE. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM OFF SHORE WHILE BRINGING
MUCH WEAKER ENERGY INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK AND IS VERY
SLOW TO START TRANSITIONING THE THE MAIN SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
CONUS.THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS WAS USED...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...COOLER AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR THE BLACK HILLS AND POSSIBLY
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA MOST NIGHTS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS..WHICH ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE RELAXING TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND MAY DROP A LITTLE
FURTHER IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO RECOVER EARLY
THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH HAVE BEEN
ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW...BUT SHOULD BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS A DEEPENING AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL MORE RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER COOLER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025-026-030>032-043-046-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KUNR 012105 CCA
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
248 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING
TO DECREASE AS THE SFC LOW KICKS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...SO WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RH RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW THIS EVENING
AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ARE BEING REPORTED.
HOWEVER DIURNAL COOLING AND THE DECREASING WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVE FIRE WEATHER DANGER AFTER DARK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
50 KTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECTING ANOTHER WINDY DAY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
AT TIMES ARE LIKELY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S WITH COOLER READINGS IN THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWEST
WYO. TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED ON THE DRY SIDE. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY AS PRECIP
REMAINS CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF EASTERN IDAHO AND INTO
SOUTHEAST WYO. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR NORTHEAST
WYO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST SD DURING THE AFTERNOON...CAN`T RULE OUT
THAT A SHOWER OR TWO WILL CLIP THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LIE MAINLY WITH LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT BEGIN TO
DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD. THIS AIR WILL BE DRIER AS WELL WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE
SEEN FROM THE MODELS SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON FRIDAY...THE COLDER AIR WILL
PUSH EASTWARD ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM BELOW
0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT TO A RANGE OF 0C
TO 5C /EAST TO WEST/. WITH THIS WARMER AIR MOVING IN...LOOKING FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH WILL BE A BIT COOLER. DO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF MONTANA
AND INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT
LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER...BUT ALSO SHOWS DECENT
LIFT IN THE SATURATED LAYER SO FELT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WITH LIGHT QPF/S OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THOSE AREAS.

AFTER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. VERY LITTLE
IN TERMS OF MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN THROUGH ANY LEVELS SO
ANTICIPATING LITTLE CLOUD COVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WITH THE WARM AIR-MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME AREA MAY SEE HIGHER WINDS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS FORECASTED IN THE 30S. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG A BIT
BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. CONCURRENTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO WYOMING WHICH WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES IN THROUGH THE DAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WARM AIR AND MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

AGAIN...THE MODEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE GFS AND GEM PUSH OUT AN INITIAL WAVE INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...THEN KEEP A THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OFF-SHORE. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM OFF SHORE WHILE BRINGING
MUCH WEAKER ENERGY INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK AND IS VERY
SLOW TO START TRANSITIONING THE THE MAIN SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
CONUS.THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS WAS USED...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...COOLER AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR THE BLACK HILLS AND POSSIBLY
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA MOST NIGHTS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS..WHICH ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE RELAXING TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND MAY DROP A LITTLE
FURTHER IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO RECOVER EARLY
THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH HAVE BEEN
ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW...BUT SHOULD BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS A DEEPENING AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL MORE RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER COOLER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025-026-030>032-043-046-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 012048
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
248 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING
TO DECREASE AS THE SFC LOW KICKS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...SO WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RH RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW THIS EVENING
AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ARE BEING REPORTED.
HOWEVER DIURNAL COOLING AND THE DECREASING WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVE FIRE WEATHER DANGER AFTER DARK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
50 KTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECTING ANOTHER WINDY DAY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
AT TIMES ARE LIKELY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S WITH COOLER READINGS IN THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWEST
WYO. TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED ON THE DRY SIDE. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY AS PRECIP
REMAINS CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF EASTERN IDAHO AND INTO
SOUTHEAST WYO. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR NORTHEAST
WYO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST SD DURING THE AFTERNOON...CAN`T RULE OUT
THAT A SHOWER OR TWO WILL CLIP THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LIE MAINLY WITH LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT BEGIN TO
DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD. THIS AIR WILL BE DRIER AS WELL WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE
SEEN FROM THE MODELS SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON FRIDAY...THE COLDER AIR WILL
PUSH EASTWARD ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM BELOW
0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT TO A RANGE OF 0C
TO 5C /EAST TO WEST/. WITH THIS WARMER AIR MOVING IN...LOOKING FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH WILL BE A BIT COOLER. DO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF MONTANA
AND INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT
LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER...BUT ALSO SHOWS DECENT
LIFT IN THE SATURATED LAYER SO FELT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WITH LIGHT QPF/S OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THOSE AREAS.

AFTER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. VERY LITTLE
IN TERMS OF MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN THROUGH ANY LEVELS SO
ANTICIPATING LITTLE CLOUD COVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WITH THE WARM AIR-MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME AREA MAY SEE HIGHER WINDS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS FORECASTED IN THE 30S. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG A BIT
BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. CONCURRENTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO WYOMING WHICH WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES IN THROUGH THE DAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WARM AIR AND MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

AGAIN...THE MODEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE GFS AND GEM PUSH OUT AN INITIAL WAVE INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...THEN KEEP A THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OFF-SHORE. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM OFF SHORE WHILE BRINGING
MUCH WEAKER ENERGY INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK AND IS VERY
SLOW TO START TRANSITIONING THE THE MAIN SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
CONUS.THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS WAS USED...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...COOLER AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR THE BLACK HILLS AND POSSIBLY
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA MOST NIGHTS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS..WHICH ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE RELAXING TONIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND MAY DROP A LITTLE
FURTHER IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO RECOVER EARLY
THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH HAVE BEEN
ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW...BUT SHOULD BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS A DEEPENING AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL MORE RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE AND BECOMING STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER COOLER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025-026-030>032-043-046-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KUNR 012048
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
248 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING
TO DECREASE AS THE SFC LOW KICKS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...SO WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RH RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW THIS EVENING
AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ARE BEING REPORTED.
HOWEVER DIURNAL COOLING AND THE DECREASING WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVE FIRE WEATHER DANGER AFTER DARK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
50 KTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECTING ANOTHER WINDY DAY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
AT TIMES ARE LIKELY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S WITH COOLER READINGS IN THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWEST
WYO. TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED ON THE DRY SIDE. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY AS PRECIP
REMAINS CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF EASTERN IDAHO AND INTO
SOUTHEAST WYO. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR NORTHEAST
WYO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST SD DURING THE AFTERNOON...CAN`T RULE OUT
THAT A SHOWER OR TWO WILL CLIP THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LIE MAINLY WITH LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT BEGIN TO
DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD. THIS AIR WILL BE DRIER AS WELL WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE
SEEN FROM THE MODELS SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON FRIDAY...THE COLDER AIR WILL
PUSH EASTWARD ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM BELOW
0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT TO A RANGE OF 0C
TO 5C /EAST TO WEST/. WITH THIS WARMER AIR MOVING IN...LOOKING FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH WILL BE A BIT COOLER. DO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF MONTANA
AND INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT
LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER...BUT ALSO SHOWS DECENT
LIFT IN THE SATURATED LAYER SO FELT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WITH LIGHT QPF/S OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THOSE AREAS.

AFTER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. VERY LITTLE
IN TERMS OF MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN THROUGH ANY LEVELS SO
ANTICIPATING LITTLE CLOUD COVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WITH THE WARM AIR-MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME AREA MAY SEE HIGHER WINDS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS FORECASTED IN THE 30S. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG A BIT
BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. CONCURRENTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO WYOMING WHICH WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES IN THROUGH THE DAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WARM AIR AND MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

AGAIN...THE MODEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE GFS AND GEM PUSH OUT AN INITIAL WAVE INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...THEN KEEP A THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OFF-SHORE. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM OFF SHORE WHILE BRINGING
MUCH WEAKER ENERGY INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK AND IS VERY
SLOW TO START TRANSITIONING THE THE MAIN SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
CONUS.THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS WAS USED...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...COOLER AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR THE BLACK HILLS AND POSSIBLY
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA MOST NIGHTS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS..WHICH ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE RELAXING TONIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND MAY DROP A LITTLE
FURTHER IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO RECOVER EARLY
THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH HAVE BEEN
ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW...BUT SHOULD BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS A DEEPENING AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL MORE RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE AND BECOMING STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER COOLER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025-026-030>032-043-046-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KUNR 012048
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
248 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING
TO DECREASE AS THE SFC LOW KICKS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...SO WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RH RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW THIS EVENING
AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ARE BEING REPORTED.
HOWEVER DIURNAL COOLING AND THE DECREASING WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVE FIRE WEATHER DANGER AFTER DARK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
50 KTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECTING ANOTHER WINDY DAY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
AT TIMES ARE LIKELY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S WITH COOLER READINGS IN THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWEST
WYO. TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED ON THE DRY SIDE. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY AS PRECIP
REMAINS CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF EASTERN IDAHO AND INTO
SOUTHEAST WYO. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR NORTHEAST
WYO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST SD DURING THE AFTERNOON...CAN`T RULE OUT
THAT A SHOWER OR TWO WILL CLIP THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LIE MAINLY WITH LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT BEGIN TO
DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD. THIS AIR WILL BE DRIER AS WELL WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE
SEEN FROM THE MODELS SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON FRIDAY...THE COLDER AIR WILL
PUSH EASTWARD ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM BELOW
0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT TO A RANGE OF 0C
TO 5C /EAST TO WEST/. WITH THIS WARMER AIR MOVING IN...LOOKING FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH WILL BE A BIT COOLER. DO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF MONTANA
AND INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT
LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER...BUT ALSO SHOWS DECENT
LIFT IN THE SATURATED LAYER SO FELT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WITH LIGHT QPF/S OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THOSE AREAS.

AFTER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. VERY LITTLE
IN TERMS OF MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN THROUGH ANY LEVELS SO
ANTICIPATING LITTLE CLOUD COVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WITH THE WARM AIR-MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME AREA MAY SEE HIGHER WINDS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS FORECASTED IN THE 30S. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG A BIT
BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. CONCURRENTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO WYOMING WHICH WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES IN THROUGH THE DAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WARM AIR AND MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

AGAIN...THE MODEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE GFS AND GEM PUSH OUT AN INITIAL WAVE INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...THEN KEEP A THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OFF-SHORE. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM OFF SHORE WHILE BRINGING
MUCH WEAKER ENERGY INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK AND IS VERY
SLOW TO START TRANSITIONING THE THE MAIN SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
CONUS.THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS WAS USED...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...COOLER AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR THE BLACK HILLS AND POSSIBLY
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA MOST NIGHTS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS..WHICH ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE RELAXING TONIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND MAY DROP A LITTLE
FURTHER IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO RECOVER EARLY
THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH HAVE BEEN
ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW...BUT SHOULD BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS A DEEPENING AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL MORE RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE AND BECOMING STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER COOLER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025-026-030>032-043-046-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KUNR 012048
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
248 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING
TO DECREASE AS THE SFC LOW KICKS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...SO WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RH RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW THIS EVENING
AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ARE BEING REPORTED.
HOWEVER DIURNAL COOLING AND THE DECREASING WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVE FIRE WEATHER DANGER AFTER DARK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
50 KTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECTING ANOTHER WINDY DAY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
AT TIMES ARE LIKELY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S WITH COOLER READINGS IN THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWEST
WYO. TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED ON THE DRY SIDE. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY AS PRECIP
REMAINS CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF EASTERN IDAHO AND INTO
SOUTHEAST WYO. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR NORTHEAST
WYO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST SD DURING THE AFTERNOON...CAN`T RULE OUT
THAT A SHOWER OR TWO WILL CLIP THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LIE MAINLY WITH LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT BEGIN TO
DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD. THIS AIR WILL BE DRIER AS WELL WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE
SEEN FROM THE MODELS SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON FRIDAY...THE COLDER AIR WILL
PUSH EASTWARD ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM BELOW
0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT TO A RANGE OF 0C
TO 5C /EAST TO WEST/. WITH THIS WARMER AIR MOVING IN...LOOKING FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH WILL BE A BIT COOLER. DO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF MONTANA
AND INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT
LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER...BUT ALSO SHOWS DECENT
LIFT IN THE SATURATED LAYER SO FELT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WITH LIGHT QPF/S OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THOSE AREAS.

AFTER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. VERY LITTLE
IN TERMS OF MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN THROUGH ANY LEVELS SO
ANTICIPATING LITTLE CLOUD COVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WITH THE WARM AIR-MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME AREA MAY SEE HIGHER WINDS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS FORECASTED IN THE 30S. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG A BIT
BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. CONCURRENTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO WYOMING WHICH WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES IN THROUGH THE DAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WARM AIR AND MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

AGAIN...THE MODEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE GFS AND GEM PUSH OUT AN INITIAL WAVE INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...THEN KEEP A THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OFF-SHORE. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM OFF SHORE WHILE BRINGING
MUCH WEAKER ENERGY INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK AND IS VERY
SLOW TO START TRANSITIONING THE THE MAIN SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
CONUS.THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS WAS USED...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...COOLER AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR THE BLACK HILLS AND POSSIBLY
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA MOST NIGHTS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS..WHICH ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE RELAXING TONIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND MAY DROP A LITTLE
FURTHER IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO RECOVER EARLY
THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH HAVE BEEN
ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW...BUT SHOULD BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS A DEEPENING AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL MORE RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE AND BECOMING STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER COOLER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025-026-030>032-043-046-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KABR 012046
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CHIEF CONCERN. SEVERAL FIRES ONGOING AT
TIME...THANKFULLY WE ARE AT PEAK PRESSURE RISES/PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SO ANTICIPATE WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH SETTING SUN.
THE GRADIENT WONT GET MUCH STRONGER FOR THURSDAY...HOWEVER
WESTERLY FLOW...WEAK COLD ADVECTION...AND SUN WILL LEAD TO
EFFICIENT MIXING...POTENTIALLY UP TO 700MB. MIXED DOWN WINDS TOP
OUT IN THE LOW END OF 30G40KTS...SO THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY...DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE. FRIDAY AM WILL BE THE COOLEST
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES -5 TO -9C.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE QUIET AS THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE
LOW WILL HAVE DROPPED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLIDE
EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DROP JUST LOW ENOUGH BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR BECOME SNOW FOR
A TIME...BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. WILL
LEAVE WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S...THEN A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN WILL INCREASE
BACK INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ267>272.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
     THURSDAY FOR SDZ267>273.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-015-
     033-045.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN






000
FXUS63 KABR 012046
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CHIEF CONCERN. SEVERAL FIRES ONGOING AT
TIME...THANKFULLY WE ARE AT PEAK PRESSURE RISES/PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SO ANTICIPATE WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH SETTING SUN.
THE GRADIENT WONT GET MUCH STRONGER FOR THURSDAY...HOWEVER
WESTERLY FLOW...WEAK COLD ADVECTION...AND SUN WILL LEAD TO
EFFICIENT MIXING...POTENTIALLY UP TO 700MB. MIXED DOWN WINDS TOP
OUT IN THE LOW END OF 30G40KTS...SO THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY...DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE. FRIDAY AM WILL BE THE COOLEST
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES -5 TO -9C.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE QUIET AS THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE
LOW WILL HAVE DROPPED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLIDE
EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DROP JUST LOW ENOUGH BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR BECOME SNOW FOR
A TIME...BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. WILL
LEAVE WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S...THEN A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN WILL INCREASE
BACK INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ267>272.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
     THURSDAY FOR SDZ267>273.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-015-
     033-045.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN







000
FXUS63 KABR 012046
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CHIEF CONCERN. SEVERAL FIRES ONGOING AT
TIME...THANKFULLY WE ARE AT PEAK PRESSURE RISES/PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SO ANTICIPATE WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH SETTING SUN.
THE GRADIENT WONT GET MUCH STRONGER FOR THURSDAY...HOWEVER
WESTERLY FLOW...WEAK COLD ADVECTION...AND SUN WILL LEAD TO
EFFICIENT MIXING...POTENTIALLY UP TO 700MB. MIXED DOWN WINDS TOP
OUT IN THE LOW END OF 30G40KTS...SO THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY...DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE. FRIDAY AM WILL BE THE COOLEST
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES -5 TO -9C.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE QUIET AS THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE
LOW WILL HAVE DROPPED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLIDE
EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DROP JUST LOW ENOUGH BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR BECOME SNOW FOR
A TIME...BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. WILL
LEAVE WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S...THEN A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN WILL INCREASE
BACK INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ267>272.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
     THURSDAY FOR SDZ267>273.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-015-
     033-045.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 011746
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1246 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

HIGHLY CHALLENGING SHORT TERM WEATHER FOR TODAY...WITH MULTI FACETED
CONCERN ON WIND...FIRE WEATHER AND SEVERE WEATHER FRONTS.

QUIET WEATHER GENERALLY STARTING THE DAY WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT DECENT HEIGHT FALLS CRASHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH STRONG WAVE PUSHING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. LOW LEVEL JET REALLY RESPONDING WITH LATEST KFSD VWP PRODUCT
SHOWING 50-60 KNOTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK. ELEVATED LOCATIONS TO THE
WEST HAVE BEEN WARM AND BREEZIER THUS FAR INTO THE NIGHT...AND IN
THE LAST HALF HOUR ARE SEEING MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS AND TEMPS FOR
BUFFALO RIDGE LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING WINDS
ACROSS ELEVATED AND LEEWARD OF BUFFALO RIDGE LOCATIONS WITH FLOW
DIRECTION AND INVERSION HEIGHT ALMOST CLASSIC FOR OUR VERSION OF A
MOUNTAIN WAVE. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WINDS GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH
BY EARLY MORNING...AND STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS

AS DIURNAL HEATING BECOMES A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA WITH MAX WIND CORRIDOR SHIFTING EASTWARD...WILL LIKELY SEE
ADVISORY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...AND A FEW GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH...
EXPAND THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF NW IA BY LATER MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO
COVER THIS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO TIERS OF NW IA.

NOT AN APRIL FOOLS JOKE THAT THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOPING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET.  ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY AT THE MOMENT...BUT HAVE BEEN
WORKING TO ESTABLISH A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH 8.5-9.5C/KM
LAPSE RATES.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO RESPOND
TODAY...AND HAVE SLOWED UP THE INCREASE QUITE A BIT...BUT EVENTUALLY
WILL SEE NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE STREAM UP IN SSW FLOW AHEAD OF
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIKELY THAT  NAM IS WELL OVERDONE WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND HAS SOMEWHAT POLLUTED ITS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TOWARD THE QUICK THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE AS CAP IS ERODED FAR
TOO EASILY ALONG FRONT EARLIER IN AFTERNOON. MORE REALISTIC TO HAVE
A 50-100 J/KG CIN IN PLACE HOLDING BACK ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...WHEN WILL START TO GET SOME BETTER HEIGHT
FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT...TO WORK IN TANDEM WITH STRONG FRONTAL
FORCING. BY AROUND 20-21Z...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSING ON A
SLAYTON TO VERMILLION LINE...AND IT IS FROM THIS POINT AND EASTWARD
WHICH WILL HAVE AN INCREASING RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS IT LOOKS...GREATER SIOUX FALLS AREA
CERTAINLY IS ON THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL EARLY DEVELOPMENT.  DEEP
LAYER MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR BLEND OF MULTICELL
TO SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT EARLY ON...TRANSITIONING TOWARD MORE LINEAR
STRUCTURE WITH SHEAR VECTORS SHIFTING MORE CROSS FRONTAL WITH TIME
AND LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER COLD POOL. CAPE LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED TO 1000 J/KG OR A BIT HIGHER IN THE SOUTHEAST
CWA...WITH A FAIRLY SKINNY PROFILE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
65 MPH AND ISOLATED HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE ARE MOST LIKELY
THREATS. EXPECT COVERAGE OF STORMS TO INCREASE TOWARD 6 TO 7 PM
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND AMALGAMATION OF STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
PROGRESS OUT OF THE CWA BY 11 PM OR MIDNIGHT.

TEMPWISE...DRY AIRMASS SUGGEST THAT FULL MIXED FORECAST WILL
PROBABLY COME UP A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT AS IT HAS MOST RECENT DAYS.
LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL BE REACHED EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD BEFORE A STEADY TO SLOW FALL COMMENCES. 70S TO LOWER
80S EXPECTED TODAY...BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S WITH WINDS TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL
BECOME QUITE BRISK WITH PLENTY OF DRYING. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
DETAILED BELOW. BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG
MIXING POTENTIAL WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY MIXING ABOVE 850MB. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN
ZONES...TO MID AND UPPER 60S IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY ARE GETTING A BIT INTERESTING FOR
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE HEADS EASTWARD AND THE ECMWF
AND GEM GLOBAL ARE BEGINNING TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES INCLUDING SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE. THESE TWO MODELS
HAVE MORE OF A HOOKUP BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE WAVE...ALLOWING A DEEPER FETCH OF MOISTURE TO FORM IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THE NAM AND GFS CLOSE OFF THE MOISTURE POTENTIAL BY
ALLOWING THE NORTHERN STREAM TO TAKEOVER...AND THUS PUSHING THE
RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. UNTIL THE AMERICAN
MODELS COME AROUND...DECIDED TO LEAVE THOSE LOCATIONS DRY BUT THEY
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY.

FRIDAY WILL HAVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH LESS WIND BUT STILL A
TAD BRISK. MODEL DISCREPANCY BEGINS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE GFS ON SATURDAY
AND A LOT COOLER BY SUNDAY. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY...THE GFS
TRACKS A SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHICH
WOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER SOLUTION ON MONDAY
THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS SHOWING. THE ECMWF KEEPS A DEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AIR GOING SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND IF THIS PANS
OUT...THE DAY ON MONDAY WOULD PROBABLY BE PRETTY CHILLY. THE GEM
GLOBAL IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW...PRIMARILY BLENDED
THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL...LIKING THE WPC WIND SOLUTION FOR THESE
TWO DAYS. CONCERNING PRECIPITATION...THERE COULD BE SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ECMWF ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX
VALUES AT 850MB ARE EXTREMELY STABLE AT THIS POINT. THIS STABILITY
CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WHERE MORE LIGHT RAIN COULD OCCUR WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. INTERESTINGLY...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
HOLD ONTO THE IDEA OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AS
IT HAS BEEN DOING...WHICH WOULD FINALLY GIVE A DECENT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHICH WE DESPERATELY NEED.
BUT WITH SUCH A VARIANCE BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS...ONLY CHANCE POPS
ARE STILL WARRANTED UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES
ARE TRICKY SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO SUCH A WIDE VARIETY
IN SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW BLENDING IS THE WAY TO GO...HOWEVER DUE TO
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...I DID NARROW THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS...A SHARP
WIND SHIFT AND CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. COLD FRONT
IS NOW MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN BORDER AND WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH AROUND 03Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...VERY
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND ARE AVERAGING 20 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 15 TO 25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...OVERALL WIND SPEEDS
DECREASE...THEN DROP TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 06Z. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON -
AFTER 22Z...THROUGH AROUND 04Z...PRIMARILY EAST OF A SIOUX CITY
TO ORANGE CITY TO WINDOM LINE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY STORMS
WOULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF FSD...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS. ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE TODAY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 255 AND 256
IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID JAMES VALLEY...AS CONDITIONS BEHIND
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL DEGRADE HUMIDITY TO 18 TO 25 PERCENT... AS
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME A GUSTY 25 TO 35 MPH. DID ADD IN ADDITIONAL
RED FLAG WARNING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA FIRE WEATHER ZONE
258. CONCERNS ARE FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THOSE ZONES TO THE WEST
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ZONE...WHILE THOSE AREAS
EAST OF YANKTON TOWARD SIOUX CITY AND BERESFORD ARE UNLIKELY TO HAVE
CONDITIONS REACH EITHER WIND OR HUMIDITY CRITERIA.  ANOTHER AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA...WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND CONTINUE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME... EVEN
SLOWING UP THE MOISTURE INCREASE HAVE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY
REMAINING LOWEST MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON OF 30 TO 37 PERCENT. IF
THESE AREA FAIL TO SEE INCREASING DEWPOINT BY LATER MORNING...A
SHORT LEAD TIME RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 MPH LIKELY.

HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BEHIND
TONIGHTS SHORT WAVE...THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
QUITE STRONG ON THURSDAY...AVERAGING 20 TO 35 MPH...WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S PERCENT. FOR
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...THERE WAS TOO MUCH
OF A QUESTION TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE REASON
IS TWO FOLD. FIRST...IT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH WETTING RAIN THOSE AREAS
WILL GET LATER TODAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS. THE WETTING RAIN COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT AND IF THIS SCENARIO HAPPENS...NORTHWEST IOWA AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL GET ONE DAY OF DAMP FUEL CONDITIONS
WHICH WILL BE THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AGAIN. SECOND...
THE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE BAGGIER IN THOSE ZONES ON THURSDAY WITH
LESS WIND IN THE MIXED LAYER. THEREFORE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW STRONG THE WIND WILL BE...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE QUITE BREEZY IN
THOSE AREAS BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ040-055-056-
     062.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ900.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097-098.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ001>003-
     012>014-021-022-032.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN/MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 011746
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1246 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

HIGHLY CHALLENGING SHORT TERM WEATHER FOR TODAY...WITH MULTI FACETED
CONCERN ON WIND...FIRE WEATHER AND SEVERE WEATHER FRONTS.

QUIET WEATHER GENERALLY STARTING THE DAY WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT DECENT HEIGHT FALLS CRASHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH STRONG WAVE PUSHING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. LOW LEVEL JET REALLY RESPONDING WITH LATEST KFSD VWP PRODUCT
SHOWING 50-60 KNOTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK. ELEVATED LOCATIONS TO THE
WEST HAVE BEEN WARM AND BREEZIER THUS FAR INTO THE NIGHT...AND IN
THE LAST HALF HOUR ARE SEEING MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS AND TEMPS FOR
BUFFALO RIDGE LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING WINDS
ACROSS ELEVATED AND LEEWARD OF BUFFALO RIDGE LOCATIONS WITH FLOW
DIRECTION AND INVERSION HEIGHT ALMOST CLASSIC FOR OUR VERSION OF A
MOUNTAIN WAVE. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WINDS GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH
BY EARLY MORNING...AND STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS

AS DIURNAL HEATING BECOMES A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA WITH MAX WIND CORRIDOR SHIFTING EASTWARD...WILL LIKELY SEE
ADVISORY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...AND A FEW GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH...
EXPAND THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF NW IA BY LATER MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO
COVER THIS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO TIERS OF NW IA.

NOT AN APRIL FOOLS JOKE THAT THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOPING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET.  ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY AT THE MOMENT...BUT HAVE BEEN
WORKING TO ESTABLISH A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH 8.5-9.5C/KM
LAPSE RATES.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO RESPOND
TODAY...AND HAVE SLOWED UP THE INCREASE QUITE A BIT...BUT EVENTUALLY
WILL SEE NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE STREAM UP IN SSW FLOW AHEAD OF
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIKELY THAT  NAM IS WELL OVERDONE WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND HAS SOMEWHAT POLLUTED ITS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TOWARD THE QUICK THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE AS CAP IS ERODED FAR
TOO EASILY ALONG FRONT EARLIER IN AFTERNOON. MORE REALISTIC TO HAVE
A 50-100 J/KG CIN IN PLACE HOLDING BACK ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...WHEN WILL START TO GET SOME BETTER HEIGHT
FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT...TO WORK IN TANDEM WITH STRONG FRONTAL
FORCING. BY AROUND 20-21Z...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSING ON A
SLAYTON TO VERMILLION LINE...AND IT IS FROM THIS POINT AND EASTWARD
WHICH WILL HAVE AN INCREASING RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS IT LOOKS...GREATER SIOUX FALLS AREA
CERTAINLY IS ON THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL EARLY DEVELOPMENT.  DEEP
LAYER MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR BLEND OF MULTICELL
TO SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT EARLY ON...TRANSITIONING TOWARD MORE LINEAR
STRUCTURE WITH SHEAR VECTORS SHIFTING MORE CROSS FRONTAL WITH TIME
AND LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER COLD POOL. CAPE LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED TO 1000 J/KG OR A BIT HIGHER IN THE SOUTHEAST
CWA...WITH A FAIRLY SKINNY PROFILE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
65 MPH AND ISOLATED HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE ARE MOST LIKELY
THREATS. EXPECT COVERAGE OF STORMS TO INCREASE TOWARD 6 TO 7 PM
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND AMALGAMATION OF STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
PROGRESS OUT OF THE CWA BY 11 PM OR MIDNIGHT.

TEMPWISE...DRY AIRMASS SUGGEST THAT FULL MIXED FORECAST WILL
PROBABLY COME UP A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT AS IT HAS MOST RECENT DAYS.
LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL BE REACHED EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD BEFORE A STEADY TO SLOW FALL COMMENCES. 70S TO LOWER
80S EXPECTED TODAY...BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S WITH WINDS TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL
BECOME QUITE BRISK WITH PLENTY OF DRYING. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
DETAILED BELOW. BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG
MIXING POTENTIAL WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY MIXING ABOVE 850MB. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN
ZONES...TO MID AND UPPER 60S IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY ARE GETTING A BIT INTERESTING FOR
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE HEADS EASTWARD AND THE ECMWF
AND GEM GLOBAL ARE BEGINNING TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES INCLUDING SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE. THESE TWO MODELS
HAVE MORE OF A HOOKUP BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE WAVE...ALLOWING A DEEPER FETCH OF MOISTURE TO FORM IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THE NAM AND GFS CLOSE OFF THE MOISTURE POTENTIAL BY
ALLOWING THE NORTHERN STREAM TO TAKEOVER...AND THUS PUSHING THE
RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. UNTIL THE AMERICAN
MODELS COME AROUND...DECIDED TO LEAVE THOSE LOCATIONS DRY BUT THEY
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY.

FRIDAY WILL HAVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH LESS WIND BUT STILL A
TAD BRISK. MODEL DISCREPANCY BEGINS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE GFS ON SATURDAY
AND A LOT COOLER BY SUNDAY. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY...THE GFS
TRACKS A SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHICH
WOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER SOLUTION ON MONDAY
THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS SHOWING. THE ECMWF KEEPS A DEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AIR GOING SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND IF THIS PANS
OUT...THE DAY ON MONDAY WOULD PROBABLY BE PRETTY CHILLY. THE GEM
GLOBAL IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW...PRIMARILY BLENDED
THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL...LIKING THE WPC WIND SOLUTION FOR THESE
TWO DAYS. CONCERNING PRECIPITATION...THERE COULD BE SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ECMWF ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX
VALUES AT 850MB ARE EXTREMELY STABLE AT THIS POINT. THIS STABILITY
CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WHERE MORE LIGHT RAIN COULD OCCUR WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. INTERESTINGLY...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
HOLD ONTO THE IDEA OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AS
IT HAS BEEN DOING...WHICH WOULD FINALLY GIVE A DECENT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHICH WE DESPERATELY NEED.
BUT WITH SUCH A VARIANCE BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS...ONLY CHANCE POPS
ARE STILL WARRANTED UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES
ARE TRICKY SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO SUCH A WIDE VARIETY
IN SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW BLENDING IS THE WAY TO GO...HOWEVER DUE TO
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...I DID NARROW THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS...A SHARP
WIND SHIFT AND CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. COLD FRONT
IS NOW MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN BORDER AND WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH AROUND 03Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...VERY
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND ARE AVERAGING 20 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 15 TO 25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...OVERALL WIND SPEEDS
DECREASE...THEN DROP TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 06Z. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON -
AFTER 22Z...THROUGH AROUND 04Z...PRIMARILY EAST OF A SIOUX CITY
TO ORANGE CITY TO WINDOM LINE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY STORMS
WOULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF FSD...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS. ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE TODAY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 255 AND 256
IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID JAMES VALLEY...AS CONDITIONS BEHIND
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL DEGRADE HUMIDITY TO 18 TO 25 PERCENT... AS
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME A GUSTY 25 TO 35 MPH. DID ADD IN ADDITIONAL
RED FLAG WARNING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA FIRE WEATHER ZONE
258. CONCERNS ARE FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THOSE ZONES TO THE WEST
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ZONE...WHILE THOSE AREAS
EAST OF YANKTON TOWARD SIOUX CITY AND BERESFORD ARE UNLIKELY TO HAVE
CONDITIONS REACH EITHER WIND OR HUMIDITY CRITERIA.  ANOTHER AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA...WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND CONTINUE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME... EVEN
SLOWING UP THE MOISTURE INCREASE HAVE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY
REMAINING LOWEST MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON OF 30 TO 37 PERCENT. IF
THESE AREA FAIL TO SEE INCREASING DEWPOINT BY LATER MORNING...A
SHORT LEAD TIME RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 MPH LIKELY.

HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BEHIND
TONIGHTS SHORT WAVE...THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
QUITE STRONG ON THURSDAY...AVERAGING 20 TO 35 MPH...WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S PERCENT. FOR
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...THERE WAS TOO MUCH
OF A QUESTION TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE REASON
IS TWO FOLD. FIRST...IT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH WETTING RAIN THOSE AREAS
WILL GET LATER TODAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS. THE WETTING RAIN COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT AND IF THIS SCENARIO HAPPENS...NORTHWEST IOWA AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL GET ONE DAY OF DAMP FUEL CONDITIONS
WHICH WILL BE THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AGAIN. SECOND...
THE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE BAGGIER IN THOSE ZONES ON THURSDAY WITH
LESS WIND IN THE MIXED LAYER. THEREFORE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW STRONG THE WIND WILL BE...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE QUITE BREEZY IN
THOSE AREAS BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ040-055-056-
     062.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ900.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097-098.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ001>003-
     012>014-021-022-032.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN/MJ



000
FXUS63 KFSD 011746
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1246 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

HIGHLY CHALLENGING SHORT TERM WEATHER FOR TODAY...WITH MULTI FACETED
CONCERN ON WIND...FIRE WEATHER AND SEVERE WEATHER FRONTS.

QUIET WEATHER GENERALLY STARTING THE DAY WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT DECENT HEIGHT FALLS CRASHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH STRONG WAVE PUSHING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. LOW LEVEL JET REALLY RESPONDING WITH LATEST KFSD VWP PRODUCT
SHOWING 50-60 KNOTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK. ELEVATED LOCATIONS TO THE
WEST HAVE BEEN WARM AND BREEZIER THUS FAR INTO THE NIGHT...AND IN
THE LAST HALF HOUR ARE SEEING MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS AND TEMPS FOR
BUFFALO RIDGE LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING WINDS
ACROSS ELEVATED AND LEEWARD OF BUFFALO RIDGE LOCATIONS WITH FLOW
DIRECTION AND INVERSION HEIGHT ALMOST CLASSIC FOR OUR VERSION OF A
MOUNTAIN WAVE. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WINDS GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH
BY EARLY MORNING...AND STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS

AS DIURNAL HEATING BECOMES A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA WITH MAX WIND CORRIDOR SHIFTING EASTWARD...WILL LIKELY SEE
ADVISORY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...AND A FEW GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH...
EXPAND THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF NW IA BY LATER MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO
COVER THIS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO TIERS OF NW IA.

NOT AN APRIL FOOLS JOKE THAT THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOPING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET.  ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY AT THE MOMENT...BUT HAVE BEEN
WORKING TO ESTABLISH A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH 8.5-9.5C/KM
LAPSE RATES.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO RESPOND
TODAY...AND HAVE SLOWED UP THE INCREASE QUITE A BIT...BUT EVENTUALLY
WILL SEE NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE STREAM UP IN SSW FLOW AHEAD OF
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIKELY THAT  NAM IS WELL OVERDONE WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND HAS SOMEWHAT POLLUTED ITS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TOWARD THE QUICK THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE AS CAP IS ERODED FAR
TOO EASILY ALONG FRONT EARLIER IN AFTERNOON. MORE REALISTIC TO HAVE
A 50-100 J/KG CIN IN PLACE HOLDING BACK ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...WHEN WILL START TO GET SOME BETTER HEIGHT
FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT...TO WORK IN TANDEM WITH STRONG FRONTAL
FORCING. BY AROUND 20-21Z...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSING ON A
SLAYTON TO VERMILLION LINE...AND IT IS FROM THIS POINT AND EASTWARD
WHICH WILL HAVE AN INCREASING RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS IT LOOKS...GREATER SIOUX FALLS AREA
CERTAINLY IS ON THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL EARLY DEVELOPMENT.  DEEP
LAYER MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR BLEND OF MULTICELL
TO SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT EARLY ON...TRANSITIONING TOWARD MORE LINEAR
STRUCTURE WITH SHEAR VECTORS SHIFTING MORE CROSS FRONTAL WITH TIME
AND LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER COLD POOL. CAPE LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED TO 1000 J/KG OR A BIT HIGHER IN THE SOUTHEAST
CWA...WITH A FAIRLY SKINNY PROFILE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
65 MPH AND ISOLATED HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE ARE MOST LIKELY
THREATS. EXPECT COVERAGE OF STORMS TO INCREASE TOWARD 6 TO 7 PM
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND AMALGAMATION OF STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
PROGRESS OUT OF THE CWA BY 11 PM OR MIDNIGHT.

TEMPWISE...DRY AIRMASS SUGGEST THAT FULL MIXED FORECAST WILL
PROBABLY COME UP A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT AS IT HAS MOST RECENT DAYS.
LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL BE REACHED EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD BEFORE A STEADY TO SLOW FALL COMMENCES. 70S TO LOWER
80S EXPECTED TODAY...BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S WITH WINDS TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL
BECOME QUITE BRISK WITH PLENTY OF DRYING. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
DETAILED BELOW. BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG
MIXING POTENTIAL WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY MIXING ABOVE 850MB. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN
ZONES...TO MID AND UPPER 60S IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY ARE GETTING A BIT INTERESTING FOR
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE HEADS EASTWARD AND THE ECMWF
AND GEM GLOBAL ARE BEGINNING TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES INCLUDING SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE. THESE TWO MODELS
HAVE MORE OF A HOOKUP BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE WAVE...ALLOWING A DEEPER FETCH OF MOISTURE TO FORM IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THE NAM AND GFS CLOSE OFF THE MOISTURE POTENTIAL BY
ALLOWING THE NORTHERN STREAM TO TAKEOVER...AND THUS PUSHING THE
RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. UNTIL THE AMERICAN
MODELS COME AROUND...DECIDED TO LEAVE THOSE LOCATIONS DRY BUT THEY
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY.

FRIDAY WILL HAVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH LESS WIND BUT STILL A
TAD BRISK. MODEL DISCREPANCY BEGINS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE GFS ON SATURDAY
AND A LOT COOLER BY SUNDAY. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY...THE GFS
TRACKS A SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHICH
WOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER SOLUTION ON MONDAY
THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS SHOWING. THE ECMWF KEEPS A DEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AIR GOING SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND IF THIS PANS
OUT...THE DAY ON MONDAY WOULD PROBABLY BE PRETTY CHILLY. THE GEM
GLOBAL IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW...PRIMARILY BLENDED
THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL...LIKING THE WPC WIND SOLUTION FOR THESE
TWO DAYS. CONCERNING PRECIPITATION...THERE COULD BE SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ECMWF ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX
VALUES AT 850MB ARE EXTREMELY STABLE AT THIS POINT. THIS STABILITY
CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WHERE MORE LIGHT RAIN COULD OCCUR WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. INTERESTINGLY...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
HOLD ONTO THE IDEA OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AS
IT HAS BEEN DOING...WHICH WOULD FINALLY GIVE A DECENT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHICH WE DESPERATELY NEED.
BUT WITH SUCH A VARIANCE BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS...ONLY CHANCE POPS
ARE STILL WARRANTED UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES
ARE TRICKY SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO SUCH A WIDE VARIETY
IN SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW BLENDING IS THE WAY TO GO...HOWEVER DUE TO
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...I DID NARROW THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS...A SHARP
WIND SHIFT AND CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. COLD FRONT
IS NOW MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN BORDER AND WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH AROUND 03Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...VERY
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND ARE AVERAGING 20 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 15 TO 25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...OVERALL WIND SPEEDS
DECREASE...THEN DROP TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 06Z. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON -
AFTER 22Z...THROUGH AROUND 04Z...PRIMARILY EAST OF A SIOUX CITY
TO ORANGE CITY TO WINDOM LINE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY STORMS
WOULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF FSD...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS. ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE TODAY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 255 AND 256
IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID JAMES VALLEY...AS CONDITIONS BEHIND
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL DEGRADE HUMIDITY TO 18 TO 25 PERCENT... AS
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME A GUSTY 25 TO 35 MPH. DID ADD IN ADDITIONAL
RED FLAG WARNING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA FIRE WEATHER ZONE
258. CONCERNS ARE FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THOSE ZONES TO THE WEST
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ZONE...WHILE THOSE AREAS
EAST OF YANKTON TOWARD SIOUX CITY AND BERESFORD ARE UNLIKELY TO HAVE
CONDITIONS REACH EITHER WIND OR HUMIDITY CRITERIA.  ANOTHER AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA...WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND CONTINUE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME... EVEN
SLOWING UP THE MOISTURE INCREASE HAVE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY
REMAINING LOWEST MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON OF 30 TO 37 PERCENT. IF
THESE AREA FAIL TO SEE INCREASING DEWPOINT BY LATER MORNING...A
SHORT LEAD TIME RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 MPH LIKELY.

HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BEHIND
TONIGHTS SHORT WAVE...THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
QUITE STRONG ON THURSDAY...AVERAGING 20 TO 35 MPH...WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S PERCENT. FOR
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...THERE WAS TOO MUCH
OF A QUESTION TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE REASON
IS TWO FOLD. FIRST...IT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH WETTING RAIN THOSE AREAS
WILL GET LATER TODAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS. THE WETTING RAIN COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT AND IF THIS SCENARIO HAPPENS...NORTHWEST IOWA AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL GET ONE DAY OF DAMP FUEL CONDITIONS
WHICH WILL BE THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AGAIN. SECOND...
THE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE BAGGIER IN THOSE ZONES ON THURSDAY WITH
LESS WIND IN THE MIXED LAYER. THEREFORE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW STRONG THE WIND WILL BE...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE QUITE BREEZY IN
THOSE AREAS BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ040-055-056-
     062.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ900.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097-098.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ001>003-
     012>014-021-022-032.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN/MJ



000
FXUS63 KFSD 011746
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1246 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

HIGHLY CHALLENGING SHORT TERM WEATHER FOR TODAY...WITH MULTI FACETED
CONCERN ON WIND...FIRE WEATHER AND SEVERE WEATHER FRONTS.

QUIET WEATHER GENERALLY STARTING THE DAY WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT DECENT HEIGHT FALLS CRASHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH STRONG WAVE PUSHING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. LOW LEVEL JET REALLY RESPONDING WITH LATEST KFSD VWP PRODUCT
SHOWING 50-60 KNOTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK. ELEVATED LOCATIONS TO THE
WEST HAVE BEEN WARM AND BREEZIER THUS FAR INTO THE NIGHT...AND IN
THE LAST HALF HOUR ARE SEEING MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS AND TEMPS FOR
BUFFALO RIDGE LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING WINDS
ACROSS ELEVATED AND LEEWARD OF BUFFALO RIDGE LOCATIONS WITH FLOW
DIRECTION AND INVERSION HEIGHT ALMOST CLASSIC FOR OUR VERSION OF A
MOUNTAIN WAVE. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WINDS GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH
BY EARLY MORNING...AND STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS

AS DIURNAL HEATING BECOMES A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA WITH MAX WIND CORRIDOR SHIFTING EASTWARD...WILL LIKELY SEE
ADVISORY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...AND A FEW GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH...
EXPAND THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF NW IA BY LATER MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO
COVER THIS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO TIERS OF NW IA.

NOT AN APRIL FOOLS JOKE THAT THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOPING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET.  ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY AT THE MOMENT...BUT HAVE BEEN
WORKING TO ESTABLISH A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH 8.5-9.5C/KM
LAPSE RATES.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO RESPOND
TODAY...AND HAVE SLOWED UP THE INCREASE QUITE A BIT...BUT EVENTUALLY
WILL SEE NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE STREAM UP IN SSW FLOW AHEAD OF
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIKELY THAT  NAM IS WELL OVERDONE WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND HAS SOMEWHAT POLLUTED ITS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TOWARD THE QUICK THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE AS CAP IS ERODED FAR
TOO EASILY ALONG FRONT EARLIER IN AFTERNOON. MORE REALISTIC TO HAVE
A 50-100 J/KG CIN IN PLACE HOLDING BACK ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...WHEN WILL START TO GET SOME BETTER HEIGHT
FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT...TO WORK IN TANDEM WITH STRONG FRONTAL
FORCING. BY AROUND 20-21Z...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSING ON A
SLAYTON TO VERMILLION LINE...AND IT IS FROM THIS POINT AND EASTWARD
WHICH WILL HAVE AN INCREASING RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS IT LOOKS...GREATER SIOUX FALLS AREA
CERTAINLY IS ON THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL EARLY DEVELOPMENT.  DEEP
LAYER MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR BLEND OF MULTICELL
TO SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT EARLY ON...TRANSITIONING TOWARD MORE LINEAR
STRUCTURE WITH SHEAR VECTORS SHIFTING MORE CROSS FRONTAL WITH TIME
AND LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER COLD POOL. CAPE LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED TO 1000 J/KG OR A BIT HIGHER IN THE SOUTHEAST
CWA...WITH A FAIRLY SKINNY PROFILE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
65 MPH AND ISOLATED HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE ARE MOST LIKELY
THREATS. EXPECT COVERAGE OF STORMS TO INCREASE TOWARD 6 TO 7 PM
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND AMALGAMATION OF STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
PROGRESS OUT OF THE CWA BY 11 PM OR MIDNIGHT.

TEMPWISE...DRY AIRMASS SUGGEST THAT FULL MIXED FORECAST WILL
PROBABLY COME UP A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT AS IT HAS MOST RECENT DAYS.
LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL BE REACHED EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD BEFORE A STEADY TO SLOW FALL COMMENCES. 70S TO LOWER
80S EXPECTED TODAY...BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S WITH WINDS TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL
BECOME QUITE BRISK WITH PLENTY OF DRYING. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
DETAILED BELOW. BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG
MIXING POTENTIAL WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY MIXING ABOVE 850MB. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN
ZONES...TO MID AND UPPER 60S IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY ARE GETTING A BIT INTERESTING FOR
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE HEADS EASTWARD AND THE ECMWF
AND GEM GLOBAL ARE BEGINNING TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES INCLUDING SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE. THESE TWO MODELS
HAVE MORE OF A HOOKUP BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE WAVE...ALLOWING A DEEPER FETCH OF MOISTURE TO FORM IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THE NAM AND GFS CLOSE OFF THE MOISTURE POTENTIAL BY
ALLOWING THE NORTHERN STREAM TO TAKEOVER...AND THUS PUSHING THE
RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. UNTIL THE AMERICAN
MODELS COME AROUND...DECIDED TO LEAVE THOSE LOCATIONS DRY BUT THEY
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY.

FRIDAY WILL HAVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH LESS WIND BUT STILL A
TAD BRISK. MODEL DISCREPANCY BEGINS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE GFS ON SATURDAY
AND A LOT COOLER BY SUNDAY. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY...THE GFS
TRACKS A SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHICH
WOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER SOLUTION ON MONDAY
THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS SHOWING. THE ECMWF KEEPS A DEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AIR GOING SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND IF THIS PANS
OUT...THE DAY ON MONDAY WOULD PROBABLY BE PRETTY CHILLY. THE GEM
GLOBAL IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW...PRIMARILY BLENDED
THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL...LIKING THE WPC WIND SOLUTION FOR THESE
TWO DAYS. CONCERNING PRECIPITATION...THERE COULD BE SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ECMWF ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX
VALUES AT 850MB ARE EXTREMELY STABLE AT THIS POINT. THIS STABILITY
CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WHERE MORE LIGHT RAIN COULD OCCUR WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. INTERESTINGLY...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
HOLD ONTO THE IDEA OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AS
IT HAS BEEN DOING...WHICH WOULD FINALLY GIVE A DECENT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHICH WE DESPERATELY NEED.
BUT WITH SUCH A VARIANCE BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS...ONLY CHANCE POPS
ARE STILL WARRANTED UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES
ARE TRICKY SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO SUCH A WIDE VARIETY
IN SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW BLENDING IS THE WAY TO GO...HOWEVER DUE TO
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...I DID NARROW THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS...A SHARP
WIND SHIFT AND CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. COLD FRONT
IS NOW MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN BORDER AND WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH AROUND 03Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...VERY
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND ARE AVERAGING 20 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 15 TO 25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...OVERALL WIND SPEEDS
DECREASE...THEN DROP TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 06Z. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON -
AFTER 22Z...THROUGH AROUND 04Z...PRIMARILY EAST OF A SIOUX CITY
TO ORANGE CITY TO WINDOM LINE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY STORMS
WOULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF FSD...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS. ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE TODAY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 255 AND 256
IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID JAMES VALLEY...AS CONDITIONS BEHIND
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL DEGRADE HUMIDITY TO 18 TO 25 PERCENT... AS
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME A GUSTY 25 TO 35 MPH. DID ADD IN ADDITIONAL
RED FLAG WARNING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA FIRE WEATHER ZONE
258. CONCERNS ARE FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THOSE ZONES TO THE WEST
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ZONE...WHILE THOSE AREAS
EAST OF YANKTON TOWARD SIOUX CITY AND BERESFORD ARE UNLIKELY TO HAVE
CONDITIONS REACH EITHER WIND OR HUMIDITY CRITERIA.  ANOTHER AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA...WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND CONTINUE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME... EVEN
SLOWING UP THE MOISTURE INCREASE HAVE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY
REMAINING LOWEST MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON OF 30 TO 37 PERCENT. IF
THESE AREA FAIL TO SEE INCREASING DEWPOINT BY LATER MORNING...A
SHORT LEAD TIME RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 MPH LIKELY.

HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BEHIND
TONIGHTS SHORT WAVE...THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
QUITE STRONG ON THURSDAY...AVERAGING 20 TO 35 MPH...WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S PERCENT. FOR
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...THERE WAS TOO MUCH
OF A QUESTION TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE REASON
IS TWO FOLD. FIRST...IT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH WETTING RAIN THOSE AREAS
WILL GET LATER TODAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS. THE WETTING RAIN COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT AND IF THIS SCENARIO HAPPENS...NORTHWEST IOWA AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL GET ONE DAY OF DAMP FUEL CONDITIONS
WHICH WILL BE THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AGAIN. SECOND...
THE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE BAGGIER IN THOSE ZONES ON THURSDAY WITH
LESS WIND IN THE MIXED LAYER. THEREFORE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW STRONG THE WIND WILL BE...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE QUITE BREEZY IN
THOSE AREAS BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ040-055-056-
     062.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ900.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097-098.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ001>003-
     012>014-021-022-032.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN/MJ




000
FXUS63 KUNR 011736
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1136 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH BY LATE MORNING.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND FRONT WITH 4-6MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISES AND 900-850MB WINDS INCREASING TO 40 KTS. WINDS/LOW
RH WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WYOMING THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK LIFT INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING. GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS WILL REMOVE MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING.

COOLER AND BREEZY FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MOISTURE...A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE BLACK
HILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROF WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND NORTHWEST SD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
AVERAGE ON FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER FLOW
THEN TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRING OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS..WHICH ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE RELAXING TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025-026-030>032-043-046-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...MARTIN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 011736
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1136 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH BY LATE MORNING.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND FRONT WITH 4-6MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISES AND 900-850MB WINDS INCREASING TO 40 KTS. WINDS/LOW
RH WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WYOMING THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK LIFT INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING. GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS WILL REMOVE MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING.

COOLER AND BREEZY FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MOISTURE...A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE BLACK
HILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROF WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND NORTHWEST SD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
AVERAGE ON FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER FLOW
THEN TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRING OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS..WHICH ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE RELAXING TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025-026-030>032-043-046-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KUNR 011736
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1136 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH BY LATE MORNING.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND FRONT WITH 4-6MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISES AND 900-850MB WINDS INCREASING TO 40 KTS. WINDS/LOW
RH WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WYOMING THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK LIFT INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING. GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS WILL REMOVE MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING.

COOLER AND BREEZY FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MOISTURE...A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE BLACK
HILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROF WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND NORTHWEST SD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
AVERAGE ON FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER FLOW
THEN TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRING OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS..WHICH ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE RELAXING TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025-026-030>032-043-046-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KUNR 011736
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1136 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH BY LATE MORNING.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND FRONT WITH 4-6MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISES AND 900-850MB WINDS INCREASING TO 40 KTS. WINDS/LOW
RH WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WYOMING THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK LIFT INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING. GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS WILL REMOVE MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING.

COOLER AND BREEZY FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MOISTURE...A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE BLACK
HILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROF WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND NORTHWEST SD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
AVERAGE ON FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER FLOW
THEN TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRING OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS..WHICH ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE RELAXING TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025-026-030>032-043-046-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...MARTIN






000
FXUS63 KABR 011729 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1229 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1046 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WINDS ALONG THE COTEAU ARE A BIT
STRONGER THAN FORECAST...BUT EXPECTED TO DROP SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD AND PRESSURE FALLS PUSH INTO MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MOST OF THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM ONCE AGAIN CENTERS AROUND FIRE
WEATHER. CURRENTLY...MOST OF THE CWA IS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN ND. SOUTHERLY BREEZES ALONG
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS RATHER MILD OVER THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE GUSTS CLOSER
TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE WEST RIVER COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY THERE. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY FIRE ZONE AND POINTS WEST. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO TANK AS A DRY AIR MASS FOLLOWS
THE FRONT. STILL FORECASTING RH VALUES TO FALL AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. INCREASED HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TODAY AS MIXING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A NICE SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS WELL FOR POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. IT WILL BE PLENTY WINDY BUT RH VALUES
APPEAR MARGINAL. DEBATED ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...BUT DRIEST
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHEAST SD AND INTO
SOUTHERN MN. CURRENT RH GRIDS DO HAVE VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT
ACROSS JUST THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. THOSE EASTERN FIRE ZONES GO ALL
THE WAY TO THE ND BORDER WHERE HIGHER RH VALUES IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST. PLUS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT COOLER TEMPS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WHICH MAY KEEP RH VALUES A BIT HIGHER ALSO. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
THE SOUTHWEST CWA MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FLIRTING WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE FLOW
ACROSS THE US THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
WESTERN US EARLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WILL BE SENDING OFF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES INTO OUR
REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...THE GFS AND EC DO VARY AT
THE SURFACE WITH WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE EC CONTINUED TO HAVE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND
COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE GFS WAS
MUCH WARMER. IN FACT...THE EC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE SOME 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFS/MEX AT ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A COOLING
TREND FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY COOLING TO MOSTLY THE 40S BY
TUESDAY. ALSO...HAVE IN CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE SHORT WAVES COMING THROUGH.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN WILL INCREASE
BACK INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ267>272.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-015-
     033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN






000
FXUS63 KABR 011729 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1229 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1046 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WINDS ALONG THE COTEAU ARE A BIT
STRONGER THAN FORECAST...BUT EXPECTED TO DROP SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD AND PRESSURE FALLS PUSH INTO MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MOST OF THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM ONCE AGAIN CENTERS AROUND FIRE
WEATHER. CURRENTLY...MOST OF THE CWA IS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN ND. SOUTHERLY BREEZES ALONG
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS RATHER MILD OVER THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE GUSTS CLOSER
TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE WEST RIVER COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY THERE. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY FIRE ZONE AND POINTS WEST. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO TANK AS A DRY AIR MASS FOLLOWS
THE FRONT. STILL FORECASTING RH VALUES TO FALL AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. INCREASED HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TODAY AS MIXING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A NICE SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS WELL FOR POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. IT WILL BE PLENTY WINDY BUT RH VALUES
APPEAR MARGINAL. DEBATED ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...BUT DRIEST
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHEAST SD AND INTO
SOUTHERN MN. CURRENT RH GRIDS DO HAVE VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT
ACROSS JUST THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. THOSE EASTERN FIRE ZONES GO ALL
THE WAY TO THE ND BORDER WHERE HIGHER RH VALUES IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST. PLUS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT COOLER TEMPS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WHICH MAY KEEP RH VALUES A BIT HIGHER ALSO. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
THE SOUTHWEST CWA MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FLIRTING WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE FLOW
ACROSS THE US THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
WESTERN US EARLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WILL BE SENDING OFF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES INTO OUR
REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...THE GFS AND EC DO VARY AT
THE SURFACE WITH WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE EC CONTINUED TO HAVE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND
COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE GFS WAS
MUCH WARMER. IN FACT...THE EC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE SOME 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFS/MEX AT ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A COOLING
TREND FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY COOLING TO MOSTLY THE 40S BY
TUESDAY. ALSO...HAVE IN CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE SHORT WAVES COMING THROUGH.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN WILL INCREASE
BACK INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ267>272.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-015-
     033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN







000
FXUS63 KABR 011729 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1229 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1046 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WINDS ALONG THE COTEAU ARE A BIT
STRONGER THAN FORECAST...BUT EXPECTED TO DROP SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD AND PRESSURE FALLS PUSH INTO MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MOST OF THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM ONCE AGAIN CENTERS AROUND FIRE
WEATHER. CURRENTLY...MOST OF THE CWA IS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN ND. SOUTHERLY BREEZES ALONG
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS RATHER MILD OVER THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE GUSTS CLOSER
TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE WEST RIVER COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY THERE. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY FIRE ZONE AND POINTS WEST. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO TANK AS A DRY AIR MASS FOLLOWS
THE FRONT. STILL FORECASTING RH VALUES TO FALL AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. INCREASED HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TODAY AS MIXING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A NICE SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS WELL FOR POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. IT WILL BE PLENTY WINDY BUT RH VALUES
APPEAR MARGINAL. DEBATED ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...BUT DRIEST
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHEAST SD AND INTO
SOUTHERN MN. CURRENT RH GRIDS DO HAVE VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT
ACROSS JUST THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. THOSE EASTERN FIRE ZONES GO ALL
THE WAY TO THE ND BORDER WHERE HIGHER RH VALUES IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST. PLUS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT COOLER TEMPS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WHICH MAY KEEP RH VALUES A BIT HIGHER ALSO. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
THE SOUTHWEST CWA MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FLIRTING WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE FLOW
ACROSS THE US THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
WESTERN US EARLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WILL BE SENDING OFF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES INTO OUR
REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...THE GFS AND EC DO VARY AT
THE SURFACE WITH WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE EC CONTINUED TO HAVE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND
COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE GFS WAS
MUCH WARMER. IN FACT...THE EC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE SOME 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFS/MEX AT ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A COOLING
TREND FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY COOLING TO MOSTLY THE 40S BY
TUESDAY. ALSO...HAVE IN CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE SHORT WAVES COMING THROUGH.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN WILL INCREASE
BACK INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ267>272.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-015-
     033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 011727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH BY LATE MORNING.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND FRONT WITH 4-6MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISES AND 900-850MB WINDS INCREASING TO 40 KTS. WINDS/LOW
RH WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WYOMING THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK LIFT INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING. GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS WILL REMOVE MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING.

COOLER AND BREEZY FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MOISTURE...A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE BLACK
HILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROF WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND NORTHWEST SD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
AVERAGE ON FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER FLOW
THEN TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRING OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS..WHICH ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE RELAXING TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025-026-030>032-043-046-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...MARTIN








000
FXUS63 KUNR 011727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH BY LATE MORNING.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND FRONT WITH 4-6MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISES AND 900-850MB WINDS INCREASING TO 40 KTS. WINDS/LOW
RH WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WYOMING THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK LIFT INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING. GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS WILL REMOVE MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING.

COOLER AND BREEZY FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MOISTURE...A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE BLACK
HILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROF WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND NORTHWEST SD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
AVERAGE ON FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER FLOW
THEN TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRING OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS..WHICH ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE RELAXING TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025-026-030>032-043-046-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KUNR 011727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH BY LATE MORNING.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND FRONT WITH 4-6MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISES AND 900-850MB WINDS INCREASING TO 40 KTS. WINDS/LOW
RH WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WYOMING THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK LIFT INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING. GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS WILL REMOVE MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING.

COOLER AND BREEZY FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MOISTURE...A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE BLACK
HILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROF WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND NORTHWEST SD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
AVERAGE ON FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER FLOW
THEN TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRING OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS..WHICH ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE RELAXING TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025-026-030>032-043-046-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...MARTIN








000
FXUS63 KABR 011549
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1049 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WINDS ALONG THE COTEAU ARE A BIT
STRONGER THAN FORECAST...BUT EXPECTED TO DROP SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD AND PRESSURE FALLS PUSH INTO MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MOST OF THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM ONCE AGAIN CENTERS AROUND FIRE
WEATHER. CURRENTLY...MOST OF THE CWA IS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN ND. SOUTHERLY BREEZES ALONG
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS RATHER MILD OVER THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE GUSTS CLOSER
TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE WEST RIVER COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY THERE. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY FIRE ZONE AND POINTS WEST. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO TANK AS A DRY AIR MASS FOLLOWS
THE FRONT. STILL FORECASTING RH VALUES TO FALL AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. INCREASED HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TODAY AS MIXING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A NICE SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS WELL FOR POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. IT WILL BE PLENTY WINDY BUT RH VALUES
APPEAR MARGINAL. DEBATED ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...BUT DRIEST
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHEAST SD AND INTO
SOUTHERN MN. CURRENT RH GRIDS DO HAVE VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT
ACROSS JUST THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. THOSE EASTERN FIRE ZONES GO ALL
THE WAY TO THE ND BORDER WHERE HIGHER RH VALUES IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST. PLUS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT COOLER TEMPS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WHICH MAY KEEP RH VALUES A BIT HIGHER ALSO. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
THE SOUTHWEST CWA MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FLIRTING WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE FLOW
ACROSS THE US THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
WESTERN US EARLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WILL BE SENDING OFF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES INTO OUR
REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...THE GFS AND EC DO VARY AT
THE SURFACE WITH WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE EC CONTINUED TO HAVE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND
COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE GFS WAS
MUCH WARMER. IN FACT...THE EC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE SOME 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFS/MEX AT ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A COOLING
TREND FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY COOLING TO MOSTLY THE 40S BY
TUESDAY. ALSO...HAVE IN CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE SHORT WAVES COMING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A STRONG FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35
KNOTS TO ALL TAF LOCATIONS. THE WINDS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ267>272.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-015-
     033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KABR 011549
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1049 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WINDS ALONG THE COTEAU ARE A BIT
STRONGER THAN FORECAST...BUT EXPECTED TO DROP SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD AND PRESSURE FALLS PUSH INTO MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MOST OF THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM ONCE AGAIN CENTERS AROUND FIRE
WEATHER. CURRENTLY...MOST OF THE CWA IS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN ND. SOUTHERLY BREEZES ALONG
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS RATHER MILD OVER THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE GUSTS CLOSER
TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE WEST RIVER COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY THERE. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY FIRE ZONE AND POINTS WEST. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO TANK AS A DRY AIR MASS FOLLOWS
THE FRONT. STILL FORECASTING RH VALUES TO FALL AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. INCREASED HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TODAY AS MIXING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A NICE SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS WELL FOR POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. IT WILL BE PLENTY WINDY BUT RH VALUES
APPEAR MARGINAL. DEBATED ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...BUT DRIEST
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHEAST SD AND INTO
SOUTHERN MN. CURRENT RH GRIDS DO HAVE VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT
ACROSS JUST THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. THOSE EASTERN FIRE ZONES GO ALL
THE WAY TO THE ND BORDER WHERE HIGHER RH VALUES IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST. PLUS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT COOLER TEMPS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WHICH MAY KEEP RH VALUES A BIT HIGHER ALSO. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
THE SOUTHWEST CWA MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FLIRTING WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE FLOW
ACROSS THE US THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
WESTERN US EARLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WILL BE SENDING OFF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES INTO OUR
REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...THE GFS AND EC DO VARY AT
THE SURFACE WITH WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE EC CONTINUED TO HAVE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND
COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE GFS WAS
MUCH WARMER. IN FACT...THE EC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE SOME 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFS/MEX AT ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A COOLING
TREND FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY COOLING TO MOSTLY THE 40S BY
TUESDAY. ALSO...HAVE IN CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE SHORT WAVES COMING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A STRONG FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35
KNOTS TO ALL TAF LOCATIONS. THE WINDS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ267>272.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-015-
     033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KABR 011549
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1049 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WINDS ALONG THE COTEAU ARE A BIT
STRONGER THAN FORECAST...BUT EXPECTED TO DROP SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD AND PRESSURE FALLS PUSH INTO MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MOST OF THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM ONCE AGAIN CENTERS AROUND FIRE
WEATHER. CURRENTLY...MOST OF THE CWA IS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN ND. SOUTHERLY BREEZES ALONG
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS RATHER MILD OVER THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE GUSTS CLOSER
TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE WEST RIVER COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY THERE. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY FIRE ZONE AND POINTS WEST. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO TANK AS A DRY AIR MASS FOLLOWS
THE FRONT. STILL FORECASTING RH VALUES TO FALL AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. INCREASED HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TODAY AS MIXING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A NICE SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS WELL FOR POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. IT WILL BE PLENTY WINDY BUT RH VALUES
APPEAR MARGINAL. DEBATED ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...BUT DRIEST
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHEAST SD AND INTO
SOUTHERN MN. CURRENT RH GRIDS DO HAVE VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT
ACROSS JUST THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. THOSE EASTERN FIRE ZONES GO ALL
THE WAY TO THE ND BORDER WHERE HIGHER RH VALUES IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST. PLUS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT COOLER TEMPS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WHICH MAY KEEP RH VALUES A BIT HIGHER ALSO. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
THE SOUTHWEST CWA MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FLIRTING WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE FLOW
ACROSS THE US THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
WESTERN US EARLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WILL BE SENDING OFF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES INTO OUR
REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...THE GFS AND EC DO VARY AT
THE SURFACE WITH WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE EC CONTINUED TO HAVE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND
COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE GFS WAS
MUCH WARMER. IN FACT...THE EC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE SOME 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFS/MEX AT ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A COOLING
TREND FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY COOLING TO MOSTLY THE 40S BY
TUESDAY. ALSO...HAVE IN CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE SHORT WAVES COMING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A STRONG FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35
KNOTS TO ALL TAF LOCATIONS. THE WINDS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ267>272.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-015-
     033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 011549
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1049 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WINDS ALONG THE COTEAU ARE A BIT
STRONGER THAN FORECAST...BUT EXPECTED TO DROP SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD AND PRESSURE FALLS PUSH INTO MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MOST OF THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM ONCE AGAIN CENTERS AROUND FIRE
WEATHER. CURRENTLY...MOST OF THE CWA IS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN ND. SOUTHERLY BREEZES ALONG
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS RATHER MILD OVER THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE GUSTS CLOSER
TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE WEST RIVER COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY THERE. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY FIRE ZONE AND POINTS WEST. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO TANK AS A DRY AIR MASS FOLLOWS
THE FRONT. STILL FORECASTING RH VALUES TO FALL AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. INCREASED HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TODAY AS MIXING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A NICE SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS WELL FOR POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. IT WILL BE PLENTY WINDY BUT RH VALUES
APPEAR MARGINAL. DEBATED ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...BUT DRIEST
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHEAST SD AND INTO
SOUTHERN MN. CURRENT RH GRIDS DO HAVE VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT
ACROSS JUST THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. THOSE EASTERN FIRE ZONES GO ALL
THE WAY TO THE ND BORDER WHERE HIGHER RH VALUES IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST. PLUS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT COOLER TEMPS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WHICH MAY KEEP RH VALUES A BIT HIGHER ALSO. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
THE SOUTHWEST CWA MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FLIRTING WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE FLOW
ACROSS THE US THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
WESTERN US EARLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WILL BE SENDING OFF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES INTO OUR
REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...THE GFS AND EC DO VARY AT
THE SURFACE WITH WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE EC CONTINUED TO HAVE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND
COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE GFS WAS
MUCH WARMER. IN FACT...THE EC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE SOME 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFS/MEX AT ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A COOLING
TREND FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY COOLING TO MOSTLY THE 40S BY
TUESDAY. ALSO...HAVE IN CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE SHORT WAVES COMING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A STRONG FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35
KNOTS TO ALL TAF LOCATIONS. THE WINDS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ267>272.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-015-
     033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 011156 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
656 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MOST OF THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM ONCE AGAIN CENTERS AROUND FIRE
WEATHER. CURRENTLY...MOST OF THE CWA IS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN ND. SOUTHERLY BREEZES ALONG
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS RATHER MILD OVER THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE GUSTS CLOSER
TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE WEST RIVER COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY THERE. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY FIRE ZONE AND POINTS WEST. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO TANK AS A DRY AIR MASS FOLLOWS
THE FRONT. STILL FORECASTING RH VALUES TO FALL AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. INCREASED HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TODAY AS MIXING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A NICE SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS WELL FOR POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. IT WILL BE PLENTY WINDY BUT RH VALUES
APPEAR MARGINAL. DEBATED ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...BUT DRIEST
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHEAST SD AND INTO
SOUTHERN MN. CURRENT RH GRIDS DO HAVE VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT
ACROSS JUST THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. THOSE EASTERN FIRE ZONES GO ALL
THE WAY TO THE ND BORDER WHERE HIGHER RH VALUES IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST. PLUS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT COOLER TEMPS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WHICH MAY KEEP RH VALUES A BIT HIGHER ALSO. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
THE SOUTHWEST CWA MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FLIRTING WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE FLOW
ACROSS THE US THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
WESTERN US EARLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WILL BE SENDING OFF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES INTO OUR
REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...THE GFS AND EC DO VARY AT
THE SURFACE WITH WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE EC CONTINUED TO HAVE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND
COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE GFS WAS
MUCH WARMER. IN FACT...THE EC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE SOME 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFS/MEX AT ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A COOLING
TREND FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY COOLING TO MOSTLY THE 40S BY
TUESDAY. ALSO...HAVE IN CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE SHORT WAVES COMING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A STRONG FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35
KNOTS TO ALL TAF LOCATIONS. THE WINDS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM
     MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267>271.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-015-
     033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KABR 011156 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
656 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MOST OF THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM ONCE AGAIN CENTERS AROUND FIRE
WEATHER. CURRENTLY...MOST OF THE CWA IS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN ND. SOUTHERLY BREEZES ALONG
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS RATHER MILD OVER THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE GUSTS CLOSER
TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE WEST RIVER COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY THERE. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY FIRE ZONE AND POINTS WEST. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO TANK AS A DRY AIR MASS FOLLOWS
THE FRONT. STILL FORECASTING RH VALUES TO FALL AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. INCREASED HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TODAY AS MIXING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A NICE SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS WELL FOR POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. IT WILL BE PLENTY WINDY BUT RH VALUES
APPEAR MARGINAL. DEBATED ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...BUT DRIEST
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHEAST SD AND INTO
SOUTHERN MN. CURRENT RH GRIDS DO HAVE VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT
ACROSS JUST THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. THOSE EASTERN FIRE ZONES GO ALL
THE WAY TO THE ND BORDER WHERE HIGHER RH VALUES IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST. PLUS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT COOLER TEMPS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WHICH MAY KEEP RH VALUES A BIT HIGHER ALSO. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
THE SOUTHWEST CWA MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FLIRTING WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE FLOW
ACROSS THE US THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
WESTERN US EARLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WILL BE SENDING OFF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES INTO OUR
REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...THE GFS AND EC DO VARY AT
THE SURFACE WITH WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE EC CONTINUED TO HAVE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND
COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE GFS WAS
MUCH WARMER. IN FACT...THE EC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE SOME 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFS/MEX AT ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A COOLING
TREND FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY COOLING TO MOSTLY THE 40S BY
TUESDAY. ALSO...HAVE IN CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE SHORT WAVES COMING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A STRONG FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35
KNOTS TO ALL TAF LOCATIONS. THE WINDS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM
     MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267>271.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-015-
     033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 011156 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
656 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MOST OF THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM ONCE AGAIN CENTERS AROUND FIRE
WEATHER. CURRENTLY...MOST OF THE CWA IS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN ND. SOUTHERLY BREEZES ALONG
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS RATHER MILD OVER THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE GUSTS CLOSER
TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE WEST RIVER COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY THERE. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY FIRE ZONE AND POINTS WEST. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO TANK AS A DRY AIR MASS FOLLOWS
THE FRONT. STILL FORECASTING RH VALUES TO FALL AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. INCREASED HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TODAY AS MIXING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A NICE SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS WELL FOR POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. IT WILL BE PLENTY WINDY BUT RH VALUES
APPEAR MARGINAL. DEBATED ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...BUT DRIEST
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHEAST SD AND INTO
SOUTHERN MN. CURRENT RH GRIDS DO HAVE VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT
ACROSS JUST THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. THOSE EASTERN FIRE ZONES GO ALL
THE WAY TO THE ND BORDER WHERE HIGHER RH VALUES IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST. PLUS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT COOLER TEMPS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WHICH MAY KEEP RH VALUES A BIT HIGHER ALSO. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
THE SOUTHWEST CWA MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FLIRTING WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE FLOW
ACROSS THE US THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
WESTERN US EARLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WILL BE SENDING OFF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES INTO OUR
REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...THE GFS AND EC DO VARY AT
THE SURFACE WITH WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE EC CONTINUED TO HAVE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND
COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE GFS WAS
MUCH WARMER. IN FACT...THE EC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE SOME 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFS/MEX AT ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A COOLING
TREND FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY COOLING TO MOSTLY THE 40S BY
TUESDAY. ALSO...HAVE IN CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE SHORT WAVES COMING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A STRONG FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35
KNOTS TO ALL TAF LOCATIONS. THE WINDS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM
     MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267>271.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-015-
     033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 011156 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
656 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MOST OF THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM ONCE AGAIN CENTERS AROUND FIRE
WEATHER. CURRENTLY...MOST OF THE CWA IS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN ND. SOUTHERLY BREEZES ALONG
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS RATHER MILD OVER THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE GUSTS CLOSER
TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE WEST RIVER COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY THERE. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY FIRE ZONE AND POINTS WEST. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO TANK AS A DRY AIR MASS FOLLOWS
THE FRONT. STILL FORECASTING RH VALUES TO FALL AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. INCREASED HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TODAY AS MIXING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A NICE SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS WELL FOR POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. IT WILL BE PLENTY WINDY BUT RH VALUES
APPEAR MARGINAL. DEBATED ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...BUT DRIEST
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHEAST SD AND INTO
SOUTHERN MN. CURRENT RH GRIDS DO HAVE VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT
ACROSS JUST THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. THOSE EASTERN FIRE ZONES GO ALL
THE WAY TO THE ND BORDER WHERE HIGHER RH VALUES IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST. PLUS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT COOLER TEMPS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WHICH MAY KEEP RH VALUES A BIT HIGHER ALSO. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
THE SOUTHWEST CWA MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FLIRTING WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE FLOW
ACROSS THE US THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
WESTERN US EARLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WILL BE SENDING OFF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES INTO OUR
REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...THE GFS AND EC DO VARY AT
THE SURFACE WITH WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE EC CONTINUED TO HAVE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND
COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE GFS WAS
MUCH WARMER. IN FACT...THE EC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE SOME 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFS/MEX AT ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A COOLING
TREND FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY COOLING TO MOSTLY THE 40S BY
TUESDAY. ALSO...HAVE IN CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE SHORT WAVES COMING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A STRONG FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35
KNOTS TO ALL TAF LOCATIONS. THE WINDS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM
     MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267>271.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-015-
     033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KFSD 011139
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
639 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

HIGHLY CHALLENGING SHORT TERM WEATHER FOR TODAY...WITH MULTI FACETED
CONCERN ON WIND...FIRE WEATHER AND SEVERE WEATHER FRONTS.

QUIET WEATHER GENERALLY STARTING THE DAY WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT DECENT HEIGHT FALLS CRASHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH STRONG WAVE PUSHING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. LOW LEVEL JET REALLY RESPONDING WITH LATEST KFSD VWP PRODUCT
SHOWING 50-60 KNOTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK. ELEVATED LOCATIONS TO THE
WEST HAVE BEEN WARM AND BREEZIER THUS FAR INTO THE NIGHT...AND IN
THE LAST HALF HOUR ARE SEEING MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS AND TEMPS FOR
BUFFALO RIDGE LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING WINDS
ACROSS ELEVATED AND LEEWARD OF BUFFALO RIDGE LOCATIONS WITH FLOW
DIRECTION AND INVERSION HEIGHT ALMOST CLASSIC FOR OUR VERSION OF A
MOUNTAIN WAVE. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WINDS GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH
BY EARLY MORNING...AND STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS

AS DIURNAL HEATING BECOMES A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA WITH MAX WIND CORRIDOR SHIFTING EASTWARD...WILL LIKELY SEE
ADVISORY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...AND A FEW GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH...
EXPAND THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF NW IA BY LATER MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO
COVER THIS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO TIERS OF NW IA.

NOT AN APRIL FOOLS JOKE THAT THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOPING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET.  ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY AT THE MOMENT...BUT HAVE BEEN
WORKING TO ESTABLISH A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH 8.5-9.5C/KM
LAPSE RATES.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO RESPOND
TODAY...AND HAVE SLOWED UP THE INCREASE QUITE A BIT...BUT EVENTUALLY
WILL SEE NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE STREAM UP IN SSW FLOW AHEAD OF
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIKELY THAT  NAM IS WELL OVERDONE WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND HAS SOMEWHAT POLLUTED ITS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TOWARD THE QUICK THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE AS CAP IS ERODED FAR
TOO EASILY ALONG FRONT EARLIER IN AFTERNOON. MORE REALISTIC TO HAVE
A 50-100 J/KG CIN IN PLACE HOLDING BACK ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...WHEN WILL START TO GET SOME BETTER HEIGHT
FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT...TO WORK IN TANDEM WITH STRONG FRONTAL
FORCING. BY AROUND 20-21Z...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSING ON A
SLAYTON TO VERMILLION LINE...AND IT IS FROM THIS POINT AND EASTWARD
WHICH WILL HAVE AN INCREASING RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS IT LOOKS...GREATER SIOUX FALLS AREA
CERTAINLY IS ON THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL EARLY DEVELOPMENT.  DEEP
LAYER MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR BLEND OF MULTICELL
TO SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT EARLY ON...TRANSITIONING TOWARD MORE LINEAR
STRUCTURE WITH SHEAR VECTORS SHIFTING MORE CROSS FRONTAL WITH TIME
AND LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER COLD POOL. CAPE LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED TO 1000 J/KG OR A BIT HIGHER IN THE SOUTHEAST
CWA...WITH A FAIRLY SKINNY PROFILE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
65 MPH AND ISOLATED HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE ARE MOST LIKELY
THREATS. EXPECT COVERAGE OF STORMS TO INCREASE TOWARD 6 TO 7 PM
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND AMALGAMATION OF STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
PROGRESS OUT OF THE CWA BY 11 PM OR MIDNIGHT.

TEMPWISE...DRY AIRMASS SUGGEST THAT FULL MIXED FORECAST WILL
PROBABLY COME UP A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT AS IT HAS MOST RECENT DAYS.
LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL BE REACHED EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD BEFORE A STEADY TO SLOW FALL COMMENCES. 70S TO LOWER
80S EXPECTED TODAY...BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S WITH WINDS TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL
BECOME QUITE BRISK WITH PLENTY OF DRYING. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
DETAILED BELOW. BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG
MIXING POTENTIAL WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY MIXING ABOVE 850MB. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN
ZONES...TO MID AND UPPER 60S IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY ARE GETTING A BIT INTERESTING FOR
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE HEADS EASTWARD AND THE ECMWF
AND GEM GLOBAL ARE BEGINNING TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES INCLUDING SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE. THESE TWO MODELS
HAVE MORE OF A HOOKUP BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE WAVE...ALLOWING A DEEPER FETCH OF MOISTURE TO FORM IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THE NAM AND GFS CLOSE OFF THE MOISTURE POTENTIAL BY
ALLOWING THE NORTHERN STREAM TO TAKEOVER...AND THUS PUSHING THE
RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. UNTIL THE AMERICAN
MODELS COME AROUND...DECIDED TO LEAVE THOSE LOCATIONS DRY BUT THEY
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY.

FRIDAY WILL HAVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH LESS WIND BUT STILL A
TAD BRISK. MODEL DISCREPANCY BEGINS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE GFS ON SATURDAY
AND A LOT COOLER BY SUNDAY. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY...THE GFS
TRACKS A SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHICH
WOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER SOLUTION ON MONDAY
THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS SHOWING. THE ECMWF KEEPS A DEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AIR GOING SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND IF THIS PANS
OUT...THE DAY ON MONDAY WOULD PROBABLY BE PRETTY CHILLY. THE GEM
GLOBAL IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW...PRIMARILY BLENDED
THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL...LIKING THE WPC WIND SOLUTION FOR THESE
TWO DAYS. CONCERNING PRECIPITATION...THERE COULD BE SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ECMWF ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX
VALUES AT 850MB ARE EXTREMELY STABLE AT THIS POINT. THIS STABILITY
CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WHERE MORE LIGHT RAIN COULD OCCUR WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. INTERESTINGLY...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
HOLD ONTO THE IDEA OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AS
IT HAS BEEN DOING...WHICH WOULD FINALLY GIVE A DECENT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHICH WE DESPERATELY NEED.
BUT WITH SUCH A VARIANCE BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS...ONLY CHANCE POPS
ARE STILL WARRANTED UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES
ARE TRICKY SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO SUCH A WIDE VARIETY
IN SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW BLENDING IS THE WAY TO GO...HOWEVER DUE TO
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...I DID NARROW THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VERY STRONG WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERN TO TERMINAL
FORECASTS FOR TODAY. DESPITE SOME LOCATIONS WITH GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS...SSW LOW LEVEL JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLY
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR KFSD AND KSUX. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE
SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...EVEN BEHIND STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE AT KHON THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATE DAY FOR KFSD.

WITH KFSD AREA LIKELY ON EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT...HAVE
NOT MENTIONED ANY THUNDER...BUT KSUX APPEARS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION IN 22Z-02Z WINDOW...WITH A SEVERE STORM WITH
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS OR LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE TODAY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 255 AND 256
IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID JAMES VALLEY...AS CONDITIONS BEHIND
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL DEGRADE HUMIDITY TO 18 TO 25 PERCENT... AS
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME A GUSTY 25 TO 35 MPH. DID ADD IN ADDITIONAL
RED FLAG WARNING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA FIRE WEATHER ZONE
258. CONCERNS ARE FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THOSE ZONES TO THE WEST
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ZONE...WHILE THOSE AREAS
EAST OF YANKTON TOWARD SIOUX CITY AND BERESFORD ARE UNLIKELY TO HAVE
CONDITIONS REACH EITHER WIND OR HUMIDITY CRITERIA.  ANOTHER AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA...WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND CONTINUE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME... EVEN
SLOWING UP THE MOISTURE INCREASE HAVE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY
REMAINING LOWEST MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON OF 30 TO 37 PERCENT. IF
THESE AREA FAIL TO SEE INCREASING DEWPOINT BY LATER MORNING...A
SHORT LEAD TIME RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 MPH LIKELY.

HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BEHIND
TONIGHTS SHORT WAVE...THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
QUITE STRONG ON THURSDAY...AVERAGING 20 TO 35 MPH...WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S PERCENT. FOR
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...THERE WAS TOO MUCH
OF A QUESTION TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE REASON
IS TWO FOLD. FIRST...IT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH WETTING RAIN THOSE AREAS
WILL GET LATER TODAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS. THE WETTING RAIN COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT AND IF THIS SCENARIO HAPPENS...NORTHWEST IOWA AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL GET ONE DAY OF DAMP FUEL CONDITIONS
WHICH WILL BE THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AGAIN. SECOND...
THE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE BAGGIER IN THOSE ZONES ON THURSDAY WITH
LESS WIND IN THE MIXED LAYER. THEREFORE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW STRONG THE WIND WILL BE...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE QUITE BREEZY IN
THOSE AREAS BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ258.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ255-256.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ900.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022-032.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN/MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 011139
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
639 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

HIGHLY CHALLENGING SHORT TERM WEATHER FOR TODAY...WITH MULTI FACETED
CONCERN ON WIND...FIRE WEATHER AND SEVERE WEATHER FRONTS.

QUIET WEATHER GENERALLY STARTING THE DAY WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT DECENT HEIGHT FALLS CRASHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH STRONG WAVE PUSHING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. LOW LEVEL JET REALLY RESPONDING WITH LATEST KFSD VWP PRODUCT
SHOWING 50-60 KNOTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK. ELEVATED LOCATIONS TO THE
WEST HAVE BEEN WARM AND BREEZIER THUS FAR INTO THE NIGHT...AND IN
THE LAST HALF HOUR ARE SEEING MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS AND TEMPS FOR
BUFFALO RIDGE LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING WINDS
ACROSS ELEVATED AND LEEWARD OF BUFFALO RIDGE LOCATIONS WITH FLOW
DIRECTION AND INVERSION HEIGHT ALMOST CLASSIC FOR OUR VERSION OF A
MOUNTAIN WAVE. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WINDS GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH
BY EARLY MORNING...AND STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS

AS DIURNAL HEATING BECOMES A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA WITH MAX WIND CORRIDOR SHIFTING EASTWARD...WILL LIKELY SEE
ADVISORY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...AND A FEW GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH...
EXPAND THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF NW IA BY LATER MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO
COVER THIS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO TIERS OF NW IA.

NOT AN APRIL FOOLS JOKE THAT THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOPING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET.  ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY AT THE MOMENT...BUT HAVE BEEN
WORKING TO ESTABLISH A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH 8.5-9.5C/KM
LAPSE RATES.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO RESPOND
TODAY...AND HAVE SLOWED UP THE INCREASE QUITE A BIT...BUT EVENTUALLY
WILL SEE NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE STREAM UP IN SSW FLOW AHEAD OF
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIKELY THAT  NAM IS WELL OVERDONE WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND HAS SOMEWHAT POLLUTED ITS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TOWARD THE QUICK THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE AS CAP IS ERODED FAR
TOO EASILY ALONG FRONT EARLIER IN AFTERNOON. MORE REALISTIC TO HAVE
A 50-100 J/KG CIN IN PLACE HOLDING BACK ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...WHEN WILL START TO GET SOME BETTER HEIGHT
FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT...TO WORK IN TANDEM WITH STRONG FRONTAL
FORCING. BY AROUND 20-21Z...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSING ON A
SLAYTON TO VERMILLION LINE...AND IT IS FROM THIS POINT AND EASTWARD
WHICH WILL HAVE AN INCREASING RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS IT LOOKS...GREATER SIOUX FALLS AREA
CERTAINLY IS ON THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL EARLY DEVELOPMENT.  DEEP
LAYER MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR BLEND OF MULTICELL
TO SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT EARLY ON...TRANSITIONING TOWARD MORE LINEAR
STRUCTURE WITH SHEAR VECTORS SHIFTING MORE CROSS FRONTAL WITH TIME
AND LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER COLD POOL. CAPE LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED TO 1000 J/KG OR A BIT HIGHER IN THE SOUTHEAST
CWA...WITH A FAIRLY SKINNY PROFILE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
65 MPH AND ISOLATED HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE ARE MOST LIKELY
THREATS. EXPECT COVERAGE OF STORMS TO INCREASE TOWARD 6 TO 7 PM
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND AMALGAMATION OF STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
PROGRESS OUT OF THE CWA BY 11 PM OR MIDNIGHT.

TEMPWISE...DRY AIRMASS SUGGEST THAT FULL MIXED FORECAST WILL
PROBABLY COME UP A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT AS IT HAS MOST RECENT DAYS.
LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL BE REACHED EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD BEFORE A STEADY TO SLOW FALL COMMENCES. 70S TO LOWER
80S EXPECTED TODAY...BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S WITH WINDS TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL
BECOME QUITE BRISK WITH PLENTY OF DRYING. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
DETAILED BELOW. BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG
MIXING POTENTIAL WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY MIXING ABOVE 850MB. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN
ZONES...TO MID AND UPPER 60S IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY ARE GETTING A BIT INTERESTING FOR
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE HEADS EASTWARD AND THE ECMWF
AND GEM GLOBAL ARE BEGINNING TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES INCLUDING SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE. THESE TWO MODELS
HAVE MORE OF A HOOKUP BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE WAVE...ALLOWING A DEEPER FETCH OF MOISTURE TO FORM IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THE NAM AND GFS CLOSE OFF THE MOISTURE POTENTIAL BY
ALLOWING THE NORTHERN STREAM TO TAKEOVER...AND THUS PUSHING THE
RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. UNTIL THE AMERICAN
MODELS COME AROUND...DECIDED TO LEAVE THOSE LOCATIONS DRY BUT THEY
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY.

FRIDAY WILL HAVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH LESS WIND BUT STILL A
TAD BRISK. MODEL DISCREPANCY BEGINS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE GFS ON SATURDAY
AND A LOT COOLER BY SUNDAY. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY...THE GFS
TRACKS A SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHICH
WOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER SOLUTION ON MONDAY
THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS SHOWING. THE ECMWF KEEPS A DEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AIR GOING SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND IF THIS PANS
OUT...THE DAY ON MONDAY WOULD PROBABLY BE PRETTY CHILLY. THE GEM
GLOBAL IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW...PRIMARILY BLENDED
THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL...LIKING THE WPC WIND SOLUTION FOR THESE
TWO DAYS. CONCERNING PRECIPITATION...THERE COULD BE SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ECMWF ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX
VALUES AT 850MB ARE EXTREMELY STABLE AT THIS POINT. THIS STABILITY
CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WHERE MORE LIGHT RAIN COULD OCCUR WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. INTERESTINGLY...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
HOLD ONTO THE IDEA OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AS
IT HAS BEEN DOING...WHICH WOULD FINALLY GIVE A DECENT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHICH WE DESPERATELY NEED.
BUT WITH SUCH A VARIANCE BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS...ONLY CHANCE POPS
ARE STILL WARRANTED UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES
ARE TRICKY SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO SUCH A WIDE VARIETY
IN SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW BLENDING IS THE WAY TO GO...HOWEVER DUE TO
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...I DID NARROW THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VERY STRONG WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERN TO TERMINAL
FORECASTS FOR TODAY. DESPITE SOME LOCATIONS WITH GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS...SSW LOW LEVEL JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLY
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR KFSD AND KSUX. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE
SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...EVEN BEHIND STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE AT KHON THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATE DAY FOR KFSD.

WITH KFSD AREA LIKELY ON EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT...HAVE
NOT MENTIONED ANY THUNDER...BUT KSUX APPEARS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION IN 22Z-02Z WINDOW...WITH A SEVERE STORM WITH
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS OR LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE TODAY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 255 AND 256
IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID JAMES VALLEY...AS CONDITIONS BEHIND
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL DEGRADE HUMIDITY TO 18 TO 25 PERCENT... AS
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME A GUSTY 25 TO 35 MPH. DID ADD IN ADDITIONAL
RED FLAG WARNING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA FIRE WEATHER ZONE
258. CONCERNS ARE FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THOSE ZONES TO THE WEST
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ZONE...WHILE THOSE AREAS
EAST OF YANKTON TOWARD SIOUX CITY AND BERESFORD ARE UNLIKELY TO HAVE
CONDITIONS REACH EITHER WIND OR HUMIDITY CRITERIA.  ANOTHER AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA...WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND CONTINUE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME... EVEN
SLOWING UP THE MOISTURE INCREASE HAVE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY
REMAINING LOWEST MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON OF 30 TO 37 PERCENT. IF
THESE AREA FAIL TO SEE INCREASING DEWPOINT BY LATER MORNING...A
SHORT LEAD TIME RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 MPH LIKELY.

HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BEHIND
TONIGHTS SHORT WAVE...THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
QUITE STRONG ON THURSDAY...AVERAGING 20 TO 35 MPH...WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S PERCENT. FOR
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...THERE WAS TOO MUCH
OF A QUESTION TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE REASON
IS TWO FOLD. FIRST...IT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH WETTING RAIN THOSE AREAS
WILL GET LATER TODAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS. THE WETTING RAIN COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT AND IF THIS SCENARIO HAPPENS...NORTHWEST IOWA AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL GET ONE DAY OF DAMP FUEL CONDITIONS
WHICH WILL BE THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AGAIN. SECOND...
THE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE BAGGIER IN THOSE ZONES ON THURSDAY WITH
LESS WIND IN THE MIXED LAYER. THEREFORE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW STRONG THE WIND WILL BE...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE QUITE BREEZY IN
THOSE AREAS BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ258.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ255-256.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ900.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022-032.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN/MJ



000
FXUS63 KFSD 011139
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
639 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

HIGHLY CHALLENGING SHORT TERM WEATHER FOR TODAY...WITH MULTI FACETED
CONCERN ON WIND...FIRE WEATHER AND SEVERE WEATHER FRONTS.

QUIET WEATHER GENERALLY STARTING THE DAY WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT DECENT HEIGHT FALLS CRASHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH STRONG WAVE PUSHING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. LOW LEVEL JET REALLY RESPONDING WITH LATEST KFSD VWP PRODUCT
SHOWING 50-60 KNOTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK. ELEVATED LOCATIONS TO THE
WEST HAVE BEEN WARM AND BREEZIER THUS FAR INTO THE NIGHT...AND IN
THE LAST HALF HOUR ARE SEEING MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS AND TEMPS FOR
BUFFALO RIDGE LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING WINDS
ACROSS ELEVATED AND LEEWARD OF BUFFALO RIDGE LOCATIONS WITH FLOW
DIRECTION AND INVERSION HEIGHT ALMOST CLASSIC FOR OUR VERSION OF A
MOUNTAIN WAVE. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WINDS GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH
BY EARLY MORNING...AND STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS

AS DIURNAL HEATING BECOMES A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA WITH MAX WIND CORRIDOR SHIFTING EASTWARD...WILL LIKELY SEE
ADVISORY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...AND A FEW GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH...
EXPAND THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF NW IA BY LATER MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO
COVER THIS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO TIERS OF NW IA.

NOT AN APRIL FOOLS JOKE THAT THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOPING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET.  ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY AT THE MOMENT...BUT HAVE BEEN
WORKING TO ESTABLISH A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH 8.5-9.5C/KM
LAPSE RATES.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO RESPOND
TODAY...AND HAVE SLOWED UP THE INCREASE QUITE A BIT...BUT EVENTUALLY
WILL SEE NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE STREAM UP IN SSW FLOW AHEAD OF
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIKELY THAT  NAM IS WELL OVERDONE WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND HAS SOMEWHAT POLLUTED ITS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TOWARD THE QUICK THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE AS CAP IS ERODED FAR
TOO EASILY ALONG FRONT EARLIER IN AFTERNOON. MORE REALISTIC TO HAVE
A 50-100 J/KG CIN IN PLACE HOLDING BACK ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...WHEN WILL START TO GET SOME BETTER HEIGHT
FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT...TO WORK IN TANDEM WITH STRONG FRONTAL
FORCING. BY AROUND 20-21Z...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSING ON A
SLAYTON TO VERMILLION LINE...AND IT IS FROM THIS POINT AND EASTWARD
WHICH WILL HAVE AN INCREASING RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS IT LOOKS...GREATER SIOUX FALLS AREA
CERTAINLY IS ON THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL EARLY DEVELOPMENT.  DEEP
LAYER MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR BLEND OF MULTICELL
TO SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT EARLY ON...TRANSITIONING TOWARD MORE LINEAR
STRUCTURE WITH SHEAR VECTORS SHIFTING MORE CROSS FRONTAL WITH TIME
AND LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER COLD POOL. CAPE LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED TO 1000 J/KG OR A BIT HIGHER IN THE SOUTHEAST
CWA...WITH A FAIRLY SKINNY PROFILE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
65 MPH AND ISOLATED HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE ARE MOST LIKELY
THREATS. EXPECT COVERAGE OF STORMS TO INCREASE TOWARD 6 TO 7 PM
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND AMALGAMATION OF STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
PROGRESS OUT OF THE CWA BY 11 PM OR MIDNIGHT.

TEMPWISE...DRY AIRMASS SUGGEST THAT FULL MIXED FORECAST WILL
PROBABLY COME UP A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT AS IT HAS MOST RECENT DAYS.
LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL BE REACHED EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD BEFORE A STEADY TO SLOW FALL COMMENCES. 70S TO LOWER
80S EXPECTED TODAY...BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S WITH WINDS TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL
BECOME QUITE BRISK WITH PLENTY OF DRYING. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
DETAILED BELOW. BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG
MIXING POTENTIAL WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY MIXING ABOVE 850MB. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN
ZONES...TO MID AND UPPER 60S IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY ARE GETTING A BIT INTERESTING FOR
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE HEADS EASTWARD AND THE ECMWF
AND GEM GLOBAL ARE BEGINNING TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES INCLUDING SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE. THESE TWO MODELS
HAVE MORE OF A HOOKUP BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE WAVE...ALLOWING A DEEPER FETCH OF MOISTURE TO FORM IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THE NAM AND GFS CLOSE OFF THE MOISTURE POTENTIAL BY
ALLOWING THE NORTHERN STREAM TO TAKEOVER...AND THUS PUSHING THE
RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. UNTIL THE AMERICAN
MODELS COME AROUND...DECIDED TO LEAVE THOSE LOCATIONS DRY BUT THEY
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY.

FRIDAY WILL HAVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH LESS WIND BUT STILL A
TAD BRISK. MODEL DISCREPANCY BEGINS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE GFS ON SATURDAY
AND A LOT COOLER BY SUNDAY. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY...THE GFS
TRACKS A SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHICH
WOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER SOLUTION ON MONDAY
THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS SHOWING. THE ECMWF KEEPS A DEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AIR GOING SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND IF THIS PANS
OUT...THE DAY ON MONDAY WOULD PROBABLY BE PRETTY CHILLY. THE GEM
GLOBAL IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW...PRIMARILY BLENDED
THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL...LIKING THE WPC WIND SOLUTION FOR THESE
TWO DAYS. CONCERNING PRECIPITATION...THERE COULD BE SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ECMWF ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX
VALUES AT 850MB ARE EXTREMELY STABLE AT THIS POINT. THIS STABILITY
CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WHERE MORE LIGHT RAIN COULD OCCUR WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. INTERESTINGLY...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
HOLD ONTO THE IDEA OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AS
IT HAS BEEN DOING...WHICH WOULD FINALLY GIVE A DECENT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHICH WE DESPERATELY NEED.
BUT WITH SUCH A VARIANCE BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS...ONLY CHANCE POPS
ARE STILL WARRANTED UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES
ARE TRICKY SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO SUCH A WIDE VARIETY
IN SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW BLENDING IS THE WAY TO GO...HOWEVER DUE TO
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...I DID NARROW THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VERY STRONG WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERN TO TERMINAL
FORECASTS FOR TODAY. DESPITE SOME LOCATIONS WITH GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS...SSW LOW LEVEL JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLY
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR KFSD AND KSUX. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE
SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...EVEN BEHIND STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE AT KHON THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATE DAY FOR KFSD.

WITH KFSD AREA LIKELY ON EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT...HAVE
NOT MENTIONED ANY THUNDER...BUT KSUX APPEARS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION IN 22Z-02Z WINDOW...WITH A SEVERE STORM WITH
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS OR LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE TODAY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 255 AND 256
IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID JAMES VALLEY...AS CONDITIONS BEHIND
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL DEGRADE HUMIDITY TO 18 TO 25 PERCENT... AS
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME A GUSTY 25 TO 35 MPH. DID ADD IN ADDITIONAL
RED FLAG WARNING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA FIRE WEATHER ZONE
258. CONCERNS ARE FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THOSE ZONES TO THE WEST
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ZONE...WHILE THOSE AREAS
EAST OF YANKTON TOWARD SIOUX CITY AND BERESFORD ARE UNLIKELY TO HAVE
CONDITIONS REACH EITHER WIND OR HUMIDITY CRITERIA.  ANOTHER AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA...WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND CONTINUE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME... EVEN
SLOWING UP THE MOISTURE INCREASE HAVE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY
REMAINING LOWEST MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON OF 30 TO 37 PERCENT. IF
THESE AREA FAIL TO SEE INCREASING DEWPOINT BY LATER MORNING...A
SHORT LEAD TIME RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 MPH LIKELY.

HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BEHIND
TONIGHTS SHORT WAVE...THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
QUITE STRONG ON THURSDAY...AVERAGING 20 TO 35 MPH...WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S PERCENT. FOR
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...THERE WAS TOO MUCH
OF A QUESTION TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE REASON
IS TWO FOLD. FIRST...IT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH WETTING RAIN THOSE AREAS
WILL GET LATER TODAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS. THE WETTING RAIN COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT AND IF THIS SCENARIO HAPPENS...NORTHWEST IOWA AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL GET ONE DAY OF DAMP FUEL CONDITIONS
WHICH WILL BE THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AGAIN. SECOND...
THE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE BAGGIER IN THOSE ZONES ON THURSDAY WITH
LESS WIND IN THE MIXED LAYER. THEREFORE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW STRONG THE WIND WILL BE...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE QUITE BREEZY IN
THOSE AREAS BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ258.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ255-256.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ900.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022-032.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN/MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 011139
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
639 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

HIGHLY CHALLENGING SHORT TERM WEATHER FOR TODAY...WITH MULTI FACETED
CONCERN ON WIND...FIRE WEATHER AND SEVERE WEATHER FRONTS.

QUIET WEATHER GENERALLY STARTING THE DAY WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT DECENT HEIGHT FALLS CRASHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH STRONG WAVE PUSHING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. LOW LEVEL JET REALLY RESPONDING WITH LATEST KFSD VWP PRODUCT
SHOWING 50-60 KNOTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK. ELEVATED LOCATIONS TO THE
WEST HAVE BEEN WARM AND BREEZIER THUS FAR INTO THE NIGHT...AND IN
THE LAST HALF HOUR ARE SEEING MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS AND TEMPS FOR
BUFFALO RIDGE LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING WINDS
ACROSS ELEVATED AND LEEWARD OF BUFFALO RIDGE LOCATIONS WITH FLOW
DIRECTION AND INVERSION HEIGHT ALMOST CLASSIC FOR OUR VERSION OF A
MOUNTAIN WAVE. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WINDS GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH
BY EARLY MORNING...AND STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS

AS DIURNAL HEATING BECOMES A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA WITH MAX WIND CORRIDOR SHIFTING EASTWARD...WILL LIKELY SEE
ADVISORY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...AND A FEW GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH...
EXPAND THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF NW IA BY LATER MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO
COVER THIS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO TIERS OF NW IA.

NOT AN APRIL FOOLS JOKE THAT THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOPING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET.  ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY AT THE MOMENT...BUT HAVE BEEN
WORKING TO ESTABLISH A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH 8.5-9.5C/KM
LAPSE RATES.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO RESPOND
TODAY...AND HAVE SLOWED UP THE INCREASE QUITE A BIT...BUT EVENTUALLY
WILL SEE NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE STREAM UP IN SSW FLOW AHEAD OF
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIKELY THAT  NAM IS WELL OVERDONE WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND HAS SOMEWHAT POLLUTED ITS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TOWARD THE QUICK THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE AS CAP IS ERODED FAR
TOO EASILY ALONG FRONT EARLIER IN AFTERNOON. MORE REALISTIC TO HAVE
A 50-100 J/KG CIN IN PLACE HOLDING BACK ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...WHEN WILL START TO GET SOME BETTER HEIGHT
FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT...TO WORK IN TANDEM WITH STRONG FRONTAL
FORCING. BY AROUND 20-21Z...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSING ON A
SLAYTON TO VERMILLION LINE...AND IT IS FROM THIS POINT AND EASTWARD
WHICH WILL HAVE AN INCREASING RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS IT LOOKS...GREATER SIOUX FALLS AREA
CERTAINLY IS ON THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL EARLY DEVELOPMENT.  DEEP
LAYER MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR BLEND OF MULTICELL
TO SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT EARLY ON...TRANSITIONING TOWARD MORE LINEAR
STRUCTURE WITH SHEAR VECTORS SHIFTING MORE CROSS FRONTAL WITH TIME
AND LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER COLD POOL. CAPE LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED TO 1000 J/KG OR A BIT HIGHER IN THE SOUTHEAST
CWA...WITH A FAIRLY SKINNY PROFILE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
65 MPH AND ISOLATED HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE ARE MOST LIKELY
THREATS. EXPECT COVERAGE OF STORMS TO INCREASE TOWARD 6 TO 7 PM
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND AMALGAMATION OF STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
PROGRESS OUT OF THE CWA BY 11 PM OR MIDNIGHT.

TEMPWISE...DRY AIRMASS SUGGEST THAT FULL MIXED FORECAST WILL
PROBABLY COME UP A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT AS IT HAS MOST RECENT DAYS.
LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL BE REACHED EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD BEFORE A STEADY TO SLOW FALL COMMENCES. 70S TO LOWER
80S EXPECTED TODAY...BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S WITH WINDS TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL
BECOME QUITE BRISK WITH PLENTY OF DRYING. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
DETAILED BELOW. BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG
MIXING POTENTIAL WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY MIXING ABOVE 850MB. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN
ZONES...TO MID AND UPPER 60S IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY ARE GETTING A BIT INTERESTING FOR
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE HEADS EASTWARD AND THE ECMWF
AND GEM GLOBAL ARE BEGINNING TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES INCLUDING SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE. THESE TWO MODELS
HAVE MORE OF A HOOKUP BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE WAVE...ALLOWING A DEEPER FETCH OF MOISTURE TO FORM IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THE NAM AND GFS CLOSE OFF THE MOISTURE POTENTIAL BY
ALLOWING THE NORTHERN STREAM TO TAKEOVER...AND THUS PUSHING THE
RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. UNTIL THE AMERICAN
MODELS COME AROUND...DECIDED TO LEAVE THOSE LOCATIONS DRY BUT THEY
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY.

FRIDAY WILL HAVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH LESS WIND BUT STILL A
TAD BRISK. MODEL DISCREPANCY BEGINS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE GFS ON SATURDAY
AND A LOT COOLER BY SUNDAY. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY...THE GFS
TRACKS A SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHICH
WOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER SOLUTION ON MONDAY
THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS SHOWING. THE ECMWF KEEPS A DEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AIR GOING SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND IF THIS PANS
OUT...THE DAY ON MONDAY WOULD PROBABLY BE PRETTY CHILLY. THE GEM
GLOBAL IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW...PRIMARILY BLENDED
THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL...LIKING THE WPC WIND SOLUTION FOR THESE
TWO DAYS. CONCERNING PRECIPITATION...THERE COULD BE SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ECMWF ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX
VALUES AT 850MB ARE EXTREMELY STABLE AT THIS POINT. THIS STABILITY
CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WHERE MORE LIGHT RAIN COULD OCCUR WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. INTERESTINGLY...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
HOLD ONTO THE IDEA OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AS
IT HAS BEEN DOING...WHICH WOULD FINALLY GIVE A DECENT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHICH WE DESPERATELY NEED.
BUT WITH SUCH A VARIANCE BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS...ONLY CHANCE POPS
ARE STILL WARRANTED UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES
ARE TRICKY SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO SUCH A WIDE VARIETY
IN SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW BLENDING IS THE WAY TO GO...HOWEVER DUE TO
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...I DID NARROW THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VERY STRONG WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERN TO TERMINAL
FORECASTS FOR TODAY. DESPITE SOME LOCATIONS WITH GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS...SSW LOW LEVEL JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLY
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR KFSD AND KSUX. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE
SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...EVEN BEHIND STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE AT KHON THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATE DAY FOR KFSD.

WITH KFSD AREA LIKELY ON EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT...HAVE
NOT MENTIONED ANY THUNDER...BUT KSUX APPEARS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION IN 22Z-02Z WINDOW...WITH A SEVERE STORM WITH
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS OR LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE TODAY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 255 AND 256
IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID JAMES VALLEY...AS CONDITIONS BEHIND
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL DEGRADE HUMIDITY TO 18 TO 25 PERCENT... AS
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME A GUSTY 25 TO 35 MPH. DID ADD IN ADDITIONAL
RED FLAG WARNING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA FIRE WEATHER ZONE
258. CONCERNS ARE FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THOSE ZONES TO THE WEST
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ZONE...WHILE THOSE AREAS
EAST OF YANKTON TOWARD SIOUX CITY AND BERESFORD ARE UNLIKELY TO HAVE
CONDITIONS REACH EITHER WIND OR HUMIDITY CRITERIA.  ANOTHER AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA...WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND CONTINUE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME... EVEN
SLOWING UP THE MOISTURE INCREASE HAVE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY
REMAINING LOWEST MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON OF 30 TO 37 PERCENT. IF
THESE AREA FAIL TO SEE INCREASING DEWPOINT BY LATER MORNING...A
SHORT LEAD TIME RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 MPH LIKELY.

HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BEHIND
TONIGHTS SHORT WAVE...THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
QUITE STRONG ON THURSDAY...AVERAGING 20 TO 35 MPH...WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S PERCENT. FOR
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...THERE WAS TOO MUCH
OF A QUESTION TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE REASON
IS TWO FOLD. FIRST...IT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH WETTING RAIN THOSE AREAS
WILL GET LATER TODAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS. THE WETTING RAIN COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT AND IF THIS SCENARIO HAPPENS...NORTHWEST IOWA AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL GET ONE DAY OF DAMP FUEL CONDITIONS
WHICH WILL BE THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AGAIN. SECOND...
THE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE BAGGIER IN THOSE ZONES ON THURSDAY WITH
LESS WIND IN THE MIXED LAYER. THEREFORE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW STRONG THE WIND WILL BE...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE QUITE BREEZY IN
THOSE AREAS BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ258.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ255-256.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ900.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022-032.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN/MJ



000
FXUS63 KFSD 010917
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
417 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

HIGHLY CHALLENGING SHORT TERM WEATHER FOR TODAY...WITH MULTI FACETED
CONCERN ON WIND...FIRE WEATHER AND SEVERE WEATHER FRONTS.

QUIET WEATHER GENERALLY STARTING THE DAY WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT DECENT HEIGHT FALLS CRASHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH STRONG WAVE PUSHING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. LOW LEVEL JET REALLY RESPONDING WITH LATEST KFSD VWP PRODUCT
SHOWING 50-60 KNOTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK. ELEVATED LOCATIONS TO THE
WEST HAVE BEEN WARM AND BREEZIER THUS FAR INTO THE NIGHT...AND IN
THE LAST HALF HOUR ARE SEEING MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS AND TEMPS FOR
BUFFALO RIDGE LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING WINDS
ACROSS ELEVATED AND LEEWARD OF BUFFALO RIDGE LOCATIONS WITH FLOW
DIRECTION AND INVERSION HEIGHT ALMOST CLASSIC FOR OUR VERSION OF A
MOUNTAIN WAVE. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WINDS GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH
BY EARLY MORNING...AND STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS

AS DIURNAL HEATING BECOMES A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA WITH MAX WIND CORRIDOR SHIFTING EASTWARD...WILL LIKELY SEE
ADVISORY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...AND A FEW GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH...
EXPAND THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF NW IA BY LATER MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO
COVER THIS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO TIERS OF NW IA.

NOT AN APRIL FOOLS JOKE THAT THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOPING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET.  ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY AT THE MOMENT...BUT HAVE BEEN
WORKING TO ESTABLISH A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH 8.5-9.5C/KM
LAPSE RATES.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO RESPOND
TODAY...AND HAVE SLOWED UP THE INCREASE QUITE A BIT...BUT EVENTUALLY
WILL SEE NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE STREAM UP IN SSW FLOW AHEAD OF
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIKELY THAT  NAM IS WELL OVERDONE WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND HAS SOMEWHAT POLLUTED ITS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TOWARD THE QUICK THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE AS CAP IS ERODED FAR
TOO EASILY ALONG FRONT EARLIER IN AFTERNOON. MORE REALISTIC TO HAVE
A 50-100 J/KG CIN IN PLACE HOLDING BACK ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...WHEN WILL START TO GET SOME BETTER HEIGHT
FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT...TO WORK IN TANDEM WITH STRONG FRONTAL
FORCING. BY AROUND 20-21Z...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSING ON A
SLAYTON TO VERMILLION LINE...AND IT IS FROM THIS POINT AND EASTWARD
WHICH WILL HAVE AN INCREASING RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS IT LOOKS...GREATER SIOUX FALLS AREA
CERTAINLY IS ON THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL EARLY DEVELOPMENT.  DEEP
LAYER MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR BLEND OF MULTICELL
TO SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT EARLY ON...TRANSITIONING TOWARD MORE LINEAR
STRUCTURE WITH SHEAR VECTORS SHIFTING MORE CROSS FRONTAL WITH TIME
AND LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER COLD POOL. CAPE LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED TO 1000 J/KG OR A BIT HIGHER IN THE SOUTHEAST
CWA...WITH A FAIRLY SKINNY PROFILE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
65 MPH AND ISOLATED HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE ARE MOST LIKELY
THREATS. EXPECT COVERAGE OF STORMS TO INCREASE TOWARD 6 TO 7 PM
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND AMALGAMATION OF STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
PROGRESS OUT OF THE CWA BY 11 PM OR MIDNIGHT.

TEMPWISE...DRY AIRMASS SUGGEST THAT FULL MIXED FORECAST WILL
PROBABLY COME UP A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT AS IT HAS MOST RECENT DAYS.
LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL BE REACHED EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD BEFORE A STEADY TO SLOW FALL COMMENCES. 70S TO LOWER
80S EXPECTED TODAY...BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S WITH WINDS TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL
BECOME QUITE BRISK WITH PLENTY OF DRYING. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
DETAILED BELOW. BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG
MIXING POTENTIAL WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY MIXING ABOVE 850MB. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN
ZONES...TO MID AND UPPER 60S IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY ARE GETTING A BIT INTERESTING FOR
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE HEADS EASTWARD AND THE ECMWF
AND GEM GLOBAL ARE BEGINNING TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES INCLUDING SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE. THESE TWO MODELS
HAVE MORE OF A HOOKUP BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE WAVE...ALLOWING A DEEPER FETCH OF MOISTURE TO FORM IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THE NAM AND GFS CLOSE OFF THE MOISTURE POTENTIAL BY
ALLOWING THE NORTHERN STREAM TO TAKEOVER...AND THUS PUSHING THE
RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. UNTIL THE AMERICAN
MODELS COME AROUND...DECIDED TO LEAVE THOSE LOCATIONS DRY BUT THEY
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY.

FRIDAY WILL HAVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH LESS WIND BUT STILL A
TAD BRISK. MODEL DISCREPANCY BEGINS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE GFS ON SATURDAY
AND A LOT COOLER BY SUNDAY. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY...THE GFS
TRACKS A SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHICH
WOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER SOLUTION ON MONDAY
THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS SHOWING. THE ECMWF KEEPS A DEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AIR GOING SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND IF THIS PANS
OUT...THE DAY ON MONDAY WOULD PROBABLY BE PRETTY CHILLY. THE GEM
GLOBAL IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW...PRIMARILY BLENDED
THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL...LIKING THE WPC WIND SOLUTION FOR THESE
TWO DAYS. CONCERNING PRECIPITATION...THERE COULD BE SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ECMWF ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX
VALUES AT 850MB ARE EXTREMELY STABLE AT THIS POINT. THIS STABILITY
CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WHERE MORE LIGHT RAIN COULD OCCUR WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. INTERESTINGLY...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
HOLD ONTO THE IDEA OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AS
IT HAS BEEN DOING...WHICH WOULD FINALLY GIVE A DECENT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHICH WE DESPERATELY NEED.
BUT WITH SUCH A VARIANCE BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS...ONLY CHANCE POPS
ARE STILL WARRANTED UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES
ARE TRICKY SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO SUCH A WIDE VARIETY
IN SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW BLENDING IS THE WAY TO GO...HOWEVER DUE TO
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...I DID NARROW THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS REMAIN RATHER BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING.
LOW-LVL FLOW IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...AND WE WILL
HAVE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL LLWS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MAIN CONCERN IS WITH INCREASED WINDS AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION CHANCES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY ADVECT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
APPRECIABLE LOW-LVL MOISTURE ARRIVING AFTER DAYBREAK.  00Z MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY QUICK CU DEVELOPMENT AROUND MID-DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN SIOUX CITY AFTER 22Z. FSD
REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
WHERE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY
ADVERTISE THUNDER IN SIOUX CITY. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE TODAY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 255 AND 256
IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID JAMES VALLEY...AS CONDITIONS BEHIND
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL DEGRADE HUMIDITY TO 18 TO 25 PERCENT... AS
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME A GUSTY 25 TO 35 MPH. DID ADD IN ADDITIONAL
RED FLAG WARNING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA FIRE WEATHER ZONE
258. CONCERNS ARE FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THOSE ZONES TO THE WEST
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ZONE...WHILE THOSE AREAS
EAST OF YANKTON TOWARD SIOUX CITY AND BERESFORD ARE UNLIKELY TO HAVE
CONDITIONS REACH EITHER WIND OR HUMIDITY CRITERIA.  ANOTHER AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA...WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND CONTINUE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME... EVEN
SLOWING UP THE MOISTURE INCREASE HAVE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY
REMAINING LOWEST MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON OF 30 TO 37 PERCENT. IF
THESE AREA FAIL TO SEE INCREASING DEWPOINT BY LATER MORNING...A
SHORT LEAD TIME RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 MPH LIKELY.

HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BEHIND
TONIGHTS SHORT WAVE...THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
QUITE STRONG ON THURSDAY...AVERAGING 20 TO 35 MPH...WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S PERCENT. FOR
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...THERE WAS TOO MUCH
OF A QUESTION TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE REASON
IS TWO FOLD. FIRST...IT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH WETTING RAIN THOSE AREAS
WILL GET LATER TODAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS. THE WETTING RAIN COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT AND IF THIS SCENARIO HAPPENS...NORTHWEST IOWA AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL GET ONE DAY OF DAMP FUEL CONDITIONS
WHICH WILL BE THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AGAIN. SECOND...
THE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE BAGGIER IN THOSE ZONES ON THURSDAY WITH
LESS WIND IN THE MIXED LAYER. THEREFORE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW STRONG THE WIND WILL BE...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE QUITE BREEZY IN
THOSE AREAS BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ258.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ255-256.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ900.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022-032.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...DUX
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN/MJ



000
FXUS63 KABR 010903
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
403 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MOST OF THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM ONCE AGAIN CENTERS AROUND FIRE
WEATHER. CURRENTLY...MOST OF THE CWA IS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN ND. SOUTHERLY BREEZES ALONG
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS RATHER MILD OVER THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE GUSTS CLOSER
TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE WEST RIVER COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY THERE. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY FIRE ZONE AND POINTS WEST. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO TANK AS A DRY AIR MASS FOLLOWS
THE FRONT. STILL FORECASTING RH VALUES TO FALL AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. INCREASED HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TODAY AS MIXING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A NICE SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS WELL FOR POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. IT WILL BE PLENTY WINDY BUT RH VALUES
APPEAR MARGINAL. DEBATED ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...BUT DRIEST
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHEAST SD AND INTO
SOUTHERN MN. CURRENT RH GRIDS DO HAVE VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT
ACROSS JUST THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. THOSE EASTERN FIRE ZONES GO ALL
THE WAY TO THE ND BORDER WHERE HIGHER RH VALUES IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST. PLUS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT COOLER TEMPS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WHICH MAY KEEP RH VALUES A BIT HIGHER ALSO. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
THE SOUTHWEST CWA MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FLIRTING WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE FLOW
ACROSS THE US THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
WESTERN US EARLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WILL BE SENDING OFF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES INTO OUR
REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...THE GFS AND EC DO VARY AT
THE SURFACE WITH WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE EC CONTINUED TO HAVE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND
COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE GFS WAS
MUCH WARMER. IN FACT...THE EC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE SOME 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFS/MEX AT ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A COOLING
TREND FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY COOLING TO MOSTLY THE 40S BY
TUESDAY. ALSO...HAVE IN CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE SHORT WAVES COMING THROUGH.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM
     MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267>271.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-015-
     033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KABR 010903
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
403 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MOST OF THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM ONCE AGAIN CENTERS AROUND FIRE
WEATHER. CURRENTLY...MOST OF THE CWA IS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN ND. SOUTHERLY BREEZES ALONG
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS RATHER MILD OVER THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE GUSTS CLOSER
TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE WEST RIVER COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY THERE. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY FIRE ZONE AND POINTS WEST. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO TANK AS A DRY AIR MASS FOLLOWS
THE FRONT. STILL FORECASTING RH VALUES TO FALL AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. INCREASED HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TODAY AS MIXING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A NICE SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS WELL FOR POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. IT WILL BE PLENTY WINDY BUT RH VALUES
APPEAR MARGINAL. DEBATED ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...BUT DRIEST
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHEAST SD AND INTO
SOUTHERN MN. CURRENT RH GRIDS DO HAVE VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT
ACROSS JUST THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. THOSE EASTERN FIRE ZONES GO ALL
THE WAY TO THE ND BORDER WHERE HIGHER RH VALUES IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST. PLUS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT COOLER TEMPS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WHICH MAY KEEP RH VALUES A BIT HIGHER ALSO. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
THE SOUTHWEST CWA MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FLIRTING WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE FLOW
ACROSS THE US THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
WESTERN US EARLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WILL BE SENDING OFF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES INTO OUR
REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...THE GFS AND EC DO VARY AT
THE SURFACE WITH WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE EC CONTINUED TO HAVE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND
COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE GFS WAS
MUCH WARMER. IN FACT...THE EC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE SOME 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFS/MEX AT ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A COOLING
TREND FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY COOLING TO MOSTLY THE 40S BY
TUESDAY. ALSO...HAVE IN CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE SHORT WAVES COMING THROUGH.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM
     MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267>271.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-015-
     033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 010903
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
403 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MOST OF THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM ONCE AGAIN CENTERS AROUND FIRE
WEATHER. CURRENTLY...MOST OF THE CWA IS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN ND. SOUTHERLY BREEZES ALONG
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS RATHER MILD OVER THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE GUSTS CLOSER
TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE WEST RIVER COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY THERE. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY FIRE ZONE AND POINTS WEST. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO TANK AS A DRY AIR MASS FOLLOWS
THE FRONT. STILL FORECASTING RH VALUES TO FALL AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. INCREASED HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TODAY AS MIXING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A NICE SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS WELL FOR POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. IT WILL BE PLENTY WINDY BUT RH VALUES
APPEAR MARGINAL. DEBATED ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...BUT DRIEST
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHEAST SD AND INTO
SOUTHERN MN. CURRENT RH GRIDS DO HAVE VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT
ACROSS JUST THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. THOSE EASTERN FIRE ZONES GO ALL
THE WAY TO THE ND BORDER WHERE HIGHER RH VALUES IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST. PLUS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT COOLER TEMPS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WHICH MAY KEEP RH VALUES A BIT HIGHER ALSO. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
THE SOUTHWEST CWA MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FLIRTING WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE FLOW
ACROSS THE US THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
WESTERN US EARLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WILL BE SENDING OFF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES INTO OUR
REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...THE GFS AND EC DO VARY AT
THE SURFACE WITH WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE EC CONTINUED TO HAVE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND
COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE GFS WAS
MUCH WARMER. IN FACT...THE EC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE SOME 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFS/MEX AT ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A COOLING
TREND FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY COOLING TO MOSTLY THE 40S BY
TUESDAY. ALSO...HAVE IN CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE SHORT WAVES COMING THROUGH.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM
     MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267>271.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-015-
     033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 010903
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
403 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MOST OF THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM ONCE AGAIN CENTERS AROUND FIRE
WEATHER. CURRENTLY...MOST OF THE CWA IS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN ND. SOUTHERLY BREEZES ALONG
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS RATHER MILD OVER THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE GUSTS CLOSER
TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE WEST RIVER COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY THERE. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY FIRE ZONE AND POINTS WEST. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO TANK AS A DRY AIR MASS FOLLOWS
THE FRONT. STILL FORECASTING RH VALUES TO FALL AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. INCREASED HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TODAY AS MIXING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A NICE SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS WELL FOR POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. IT WILL BE PLENTY WINDY BUT RH VALUES
APPEAR MARGINAL. DEBATED ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...BUT DRIEST
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHEAST SD AND INTO
SOUTHERN MN. CURRENT RH GRIDS DO HAVE VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT
ACROSS JUST THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. THOSE EASTERN FIRE ZONES GO ALL
THE WAY TO THE ND BORDER WHERE HIGHER RH VALUES IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST. PLUS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT COOLER TEMPS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WHICH MAY KEEP RH VALUES A BIT HIGHER ALSO. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
THE SOUTHWEST CWA MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FLIRTING WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE FLOW
ACROSS THE US THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
WESTERN US EARLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WILL BE SENDING OFF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES INTO OUR
REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...THE GFS AND EC DO VARY AT
THE SURFACE WITH WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE EC CONTINUED TO HAVE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND
COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE GFS WAS
MUCH WARMER. IN FACT...THE EC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE SOME 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFS/MEX AT ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A COOLING
TREND FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY COOLING TO MOSTLY THE 40S BY
TUESDAY. ALSO...HAVE IN CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE SHORT WAVES COMING THROUGH.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM
     MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267>271.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-015-
     033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KUNR 010828
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
228 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH BY LATE MORNING.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND FRONT WITH 4-6MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISES AND 900-850MB WINDS INCREASING TO 40 KTS. WINDS/LOW
RH WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WYOMING THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK LIFT INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING. GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS WILL REMOVE MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING.

COOLER AND BREEZY FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MOISTURE...A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE BLACK
HILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROF WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND NORTHWEST SD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
AVERAGE ON FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER FLOW
THEN TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRING OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND
FAR NORTHWEST SD VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS THE REST OF
WESTERN SD THROUGH MID MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS EARLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-
     032-043-046.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     025-026-030-031-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS63 KUNR 010828
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
228 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH BY LATE MORNING.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND FRONT WITH 4-6MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISES AND 900-850MB WINDS INCREASING TO 40 KTS. WINDS/LOW
RH WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WYOMING THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK LIFT INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING. GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS WILL REMOVE MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING.

COOLER AND BREEZY FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MOISTURE...A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE BLACK
HILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROF WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND NORTHWEST SD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
AVERAGE ON FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER FLOW
THEN TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRING OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND
FAR NORTHWEST SD VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS THE REST OF
WESTERN SD THROUGH MID MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS EARLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-
     032-043-046.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     025-026-030-031-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15






000
FXUS63 KABR 010540 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1240 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER A LITTLE
EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 MPH.
RH REMAINS LOW AT 15 TO 20 PERCENT BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE A
LITTLE OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LOWERED TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CONSIDERABLY DRY AIR IN
PLACE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BELOW 10 MPH UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF RIGHT AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS
WILL THEN LIKELY STABILIZE AND EVEN RISE ONCE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND 8Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WX CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT RANGE. WILL
LET TODAYS WARNING RIDE DESPITE VERY MARGINAL WINDS UP TO THIS
POINT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH MORE DANGEROUS DAY CONCERNING
FIRE CONDITIONS. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LINK UP WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT PER STEEP LAPSE RATES DURING MAX
HEATING. THUS WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY WEST RIVER. EAST SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER CRITERIA. HOWEVER THE WIND IN COMBINATION WITH
VERY LOW RH...DRY FUELS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED
ALONG WITH MY NEIGHBORS TO UPGRADE WATCH TO WARNING.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THEY ARE BASICALLY NON EXISTENT. MID
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY MIGHT SUPPORT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BUT THATS
ABOUT IT. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL TURN A LITTLE COOLER ON
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LONG WAVE PATTERN DOMINATED BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROF AND A WEAK
RIDGE TO THE WEST...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MID LEVEL LIFT THOUGH LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH A 20C SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION...AND CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 8 AND 10KFT. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. MIXED DOWN WINDS
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25KTS. RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK WESTERN CONUS TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES COULD EJECT OUT OVER THE
REGION AND BRING US A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD AS WARMER AIR IS SUPPRESSED
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM
     MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267>271.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CDT /5 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT /7
     PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-015-033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KABR 010540 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1240 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER A LITTLE
EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 MPH.
RH REMAINS LOW AT 15 TO 20 PERCENT BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE A
LITTLE OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LOWERED TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CONSIDERABLY DRY AIR IN
PLACE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BELOW 10 MPH UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF RIGHT AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS
WILL THEN LIKELY STABILIZE AND EVEN RISE ONCE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND 8Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WX CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT RANGE. WILL
LET TODAYS WARNING RIDE DESPITE VERY MARGINAL WINDS UP TO THIS
POINT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH MORE DANGEROUS DAY CONCERNING
FIRE CONDITIONS. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LINK UP WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT PER STEEP LAPSE RATES DURING MAX
HEATING. THUS WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY WEST RIVER. EAST SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER CRITERIA. HOWEVER THE WIND IN COMBINATION WITH
VERY LOW RH...DRY FUELS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED
ALONG WITH MY NEIGHBORS TO UPGRADE WATCH TO WARNING.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THEY ARE BASICALLY NON EXISTENT. MID
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY MIGHT SUPPORT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BUT THATS
ABOUT IT. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL TURN A LITTLE COOLER ON
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LONG WAVE PATTERN DOMINATED BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROF AND A WEAK
RIDGE TO THE WEST...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MID LEVEL LIFT THOUGH LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH A 20C SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION...AND CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 8 AND 10KFT. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. MIXED DOWN WINDS
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25KTS. RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK WESTERN CONUS TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES COULD EJECT OUT OVER THE
REGION AND BRING US A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD AS WARMER AIR IS SUPPRESSED
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM
     MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267>271.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CDT /5 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT /7
     PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-015-033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KABR 010540 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1240 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER A LITTLE
EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 MPH.
RH REMAINS LOW AT 15 TO 20 PERCENT BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE A
LITTLE OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LOWERED TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CONSIDERABLY DRY AIR IN
PLACE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BELOW 10 MPH UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF RIGHT AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS
WILL THEN LIKELY STABILIZE AND EVEN RISE ONCE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND 8Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WX CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT RANGE. WILL
LET TODAYS WARNING RIDE DESPITE VERY MARGINAL WINDS UP TO THIS
POINT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH MORE DANGEROUS DAY CONCERNING
FIRE CONDITIONS. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LINK UP WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT PER STEEP LAPSE RATES DURING MAX
HEATING. THUS WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY WEST RIVER. EAST SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER CRITERIA. HOWEVER THE WIND IN COMBINATION WITH
VERY LOW RH...DRY FUELS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED
ALONG WITH MY NEIGHBORS TO UPGRADE WATCH TO WARNING.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THEY ARE BASICALLY NON EXISTENT. MID
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY MIGHT SUPPORT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BUT THATS
ABOUT IT. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL TURN A LITTLE COOLER ON
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LONG WAVE PATTERN DOMINATED BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROF AND A WEAK
RIDGE TO THE WEST...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MID LEVEL LIFT THOUGH LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH A 20C SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION...AND CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 8 AND 10KFT. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. MIXED DOWN WINDS
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25KTS. RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK WESTERN CONUS TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES COULD EJECT OUT OVER THE
REGION AND BRING US A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD AS WARMER AIR IS SUPPRESSED
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM
     MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267>271.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CDT /5 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT /7
     PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-015-033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KUNR 010505
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1105 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN WITH
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...PRES FALLS
EXTEND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROF.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROF WILL WORK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH ASSOCD
CDFNT PUSHING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AFT MIDNIGHT. 5-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES AND 850MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. WIND
ADVISORY POSTED FOR NWRN SD AND PARTS OF SCNTRL SD. A FEW -SHRA
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...CDFNT WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACRS THE CWFA. TEMPS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACRS NERN WY AND NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH WIND
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. FLOW THEN
BECOMES NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS THE CWA LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...ESP OVER SCENTRAL SD. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT
AND ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015
DRY AND VERY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS.
HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. RED
FLAG OR NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS RIGHT NOW AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL FIRE ZONES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MDT /6 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-032-043-046.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-025-026-030-031-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...26






000
FXUS63 KUNR 010505
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1105 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN WITH
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...PRES FALLS
EXTEND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROF.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROF WILL WORK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH ASSOCD
CDFNT PUSHING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AFT MIDNIGHT. 5-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES AND 850MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. WIND
ADVISORY POSTED FOR NWRN SD AND PARTS OF SCNTRL SD. A FEW -SHRA
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...CDFNT WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACRS THE CWFA. TEMPS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACRS NERN WY AND NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH WIND
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. FLOW THEN
BECOMES NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS THE CWA LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...ESP OVER SCENTRAL SD. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT
AND ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015
DRY AND VERY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS.
HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. RED
FLAG OR NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS RIGHT NOW AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL FIRE ZONES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MDT /6 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-032-043-046.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-025-026-030-031-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 010505
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1105 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN WITH
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...PRES FALLS
EXTEND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROF.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROF WILL WORK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH ASSOCD
CDFNT PUSHING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AFT MIDNIGHT. 5-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES AND 850MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. WIND
ADVISORY POSTED FOR NWRN SD AND PARTS OF SCNTRL SD. A FEW -SHRA
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...CDFNT WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACRS THE CWFA. TEMPS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACRS NERN WY AND NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH WIND
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. FLOW THEN
BECOMES NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS THE CWA LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...ESP OVER SCENTRAL SD. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT
AND ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015
DRY AND VERY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS.
HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. RED
FLAG OR NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS RIGHT NOW AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL FIRE ZONES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MDT /6 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-032-043-046.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-025-026-030-031-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...26






000
FXUS63 KUNR 010505
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1105 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN WITH
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...PRES FALLS
EXTEND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROF.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROF WILL WORK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH ASSOCD
CDFNT PUSHING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AFT MIDNIGHT. 5-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES AND 850MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. WIND
ADVISORY POSTED FOR NWRN SD AND PARTS OF SCNTRL SD. A FEW -SHRA
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...CDFNT WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACRS THE CWFA. TEMPS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACRS NERN WY AND NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH WIND
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. FLOW THEN
BECOMES NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS THE CWA LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...ESP OVER SCENTRAL SD. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT
AND ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015
DRY AND VERY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS.
HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. RED
FLAG OR NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS RIGHT NOW AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL FIRE ZONES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MDT /6 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-032-043-046.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-025-026-030-031-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...26







000
FXUS63 KFSD 010350
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1050 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL
WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
ROCKIES SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. INITIALLY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TONIGHT
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONALLY QUITE MILD IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. FOLLOWED THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED MODELS.

MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN NORTH
DAKOTA. A POTENT COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MID MORNING AND THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR MIDDAY. SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT
AREAS DURING THE MORNING. ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN
PARTICULAR...WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS SO
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM WHEN THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS IN EARNEST IN THE MORNING...PARTICULARLY
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO REACH THE 50S. TEMPERATURES HEAT NICELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 EXPECTED IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
CORNER. INSTABILITY INCREASES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST IOWA
AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
HIGHER MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. NAM PRODUCES CAPES AS HIGH AS 3000
J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE SIOUX CITY THROUGH SPENCER IOWA.
CAPPING WILL HOLD OFF CONVECTION IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SHOULD INITIALIZE CONVECTION. SHEAR
IS DECENT BUT MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INITIAL
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE
STORMS INCREASE...THESE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR AND PROCEED
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEVERE
STORMS TO CONTAIN UP TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL INITIALIZE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE SIOUX FALLS METRO AREA BUT IF THE FRONT DOES SLOW A BIT...THIS
THREAT MAY INCREASE. FOR TIMING OF POPS AND QPF...MAINLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF THE ARW AND GEM REGIONAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CONSENSUS AMONG THE HI RES MODELS IS THAT BY 7 PM OUR LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A SIOUX CITY TO SPENCER
IOWA LINE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS AROUND 60
MPH AS THE LINE PUSHES SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE STORMS TO BE CLEAR OF
THE CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN 9 AND 11 PM. WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S. EXPECTING
A BREEZY AND COOLER THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO
30 MPH...GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH...STRONGEST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GIVEN GOOD MIXING INTO DRY AIR ALOFT...THINKING DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWER THAN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS WILL INTRODUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW.

COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH 20S AND 30S
FOR LOWS AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. A WAVE WILL ALSO BE
TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT THINK ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE WEEKEND SHOULD GENERALLY STAY
DRY...OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS A FEW WAVES PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE 50S AND 60S...BUT
SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER ON RECENT RUNS AS THE WAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH
PUSHES SOME COOLER AIR SOUTH. THUS LOWERED HIGHS...WITH 50S AND 60S
AGAIN LIKELY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD
HELP INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME THUNDER. STILL A WAYS OUT AND MODELS
WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO PIN DOWN DETAILS...BUT FOR NOW CAN
JUST SAY THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE. GIVEN THAT...WOULD ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER. CURRENTLY CONSENSUS IS 40S AND 50S
FOR HIGHS...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET
CLOSER DEPENDING ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS REMAIN RATHER BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING.
LOW-LVL FLOW IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE SUBSTANCIALLY...AND WE WILL
HAVE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL LLWS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MAIN CONCERN IS WITH INCREASED WINDS AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION CHANCES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY ADVECT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
APPRECIABLE LOW-LVL MOISTURE ARRIVING AFTER DAYBREAK.  00Z MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY QUICK CU DEVELOPMENT AROUND MID-DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN SIOUX CITY AFTER 22Z. FSD
REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
WHERE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY
ADVERTISE THUNDER IN SIOUX CITY. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RED FLAG WARNING WEDNESDAY GENERALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 35 MPH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 20 AND 25
PERCENT. FURTHER EAST...RH VALUES SHOULD BE HIGHER...ALTHOUGH STRONG
WINDS SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE
STRONG ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR RH VALUES AROUND 35 TO 40...BUT COULD POSSIBLE BE AS LOW
AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT IF THE MOISTURE INCREASE IS SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED. THUS WHILE RH SHOULD STAY TOO HIGH FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS...GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A WETTING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

ANOTHER BREEZY AND DRY DAY ON THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY END UP
NEEDING RED FLAG HEADLINES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND WEDNESDAYS RAIN MAY
SUPPRESS FIRE POTENTIAL THERE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 15 TO 30 MPH
WINDS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND AFTERNOON RH BETWEEN 15 AND 25
PERCENT. HELD OFF ON A WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN ITS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT
AND WE HAVE WARNINGS OUT WEDNESDAY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.

THE LOW RH CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...AROUND 20 PERCENT...BUT CURRENTLY
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY LOW ENOUGH TO AVOID RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS STILL
EXPECTED.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ255-256.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...DUX
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 010350
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1050 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL
WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
ROCKIES SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. INITIALLY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TONIGHT
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONALLY QUITE MILD IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. FOLLOWED THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED MODELS.

MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN NORTH
DAKOTA. A POTENT COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MID MORNING AND THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR MIDDAY. SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT
AREAS DURING THE MORNING. ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN
PARTICULAR...WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS SO
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM WHEN THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS IN EARNEST IN THE MORNING...PARTICULARLY
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO REACH THE 50S. TEMPERATURES HEAT NICELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 EXPECTED IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
CORNER. INSTABILITY INCREASES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST IOWA
AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
HIGHER MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. NAM PRODUCES CAPES AS HIGH AS 3000
J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE SIOUX CITY THROUGH SPENCER IOWA.
CAPPING WILL HOLD OFF CONVECTION IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SHOULD INITIALIZE CONVECTION. SHEAR
IS DECENT BUT MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INITIAL
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE
STORMS INCREASE...THESE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR AND PROCEED
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEVERE
STORMS TO CONTAIN UP TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL INITIALIZE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE SIOUX FALLS METRO AREA BUT IF THE FRONT DOES SLOW A BIT...THIS
THREAT MAY INCREASE. FOR TIMING OF POPS AND QPF...MAINLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF THE ARW AND GEM REGIONAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CONSENSUS AMONG THE HI RES MODELS IS THAT BY 7 PM OUR LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A SIOUX CITY TO SPENCER
IOWA LINE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS AROUND 60
MPH AS THE LINE PUSHES SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE STORMS TO BE CLEAR OF
THE CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN 9 AND 11 PM. WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S. EXPECTING
A BREEZY AND COOLER THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO
30 MPH...GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH...STRONGEST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GIVEN GOOD MIXING INTO DRY AIR ALOFT...THINKING DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWER THAN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS WILL INTRODUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW.

COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH 20S AND 30S
FOR LOWS AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. A WAVE WILL ALSO BE
TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT THINK ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE WEEKEND SHOULD GENERALLY STAY
DRY...OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS A FEW WAVES PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE 50S AND 60S...BUT
SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER ON RECENT RUNS AS THE WAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH
PUSHES SOME COOLER AIR SOUTH. THUS LOWERED HIGHS...WITH 50S AND 60S
AGAIN LIKELY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD
HELP INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME THUNDER. STILL A WAYS OUT AND MODELS
WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO PIN DOWN DETAILS...BUT FOR NOW CAN
JUST SAY THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE. GIVEN THAT...WOULD ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER. CURRENTLY CONSENSUS IS 40S AND 50S
FOR HIGHS...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET
CLOSER DEPENDING ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS REMAIN RATHER BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING.
LOW-LVL FLOW IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE SUBSTANCIALLY...AND WE WILL
HAVE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL LLWS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MAIN CONCERN IS WITH INCREASED WINDS AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION CHANCES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY ADVECT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
APPRECIABLE LOW-LVL MOISTURE ARRIVING AFTER DAYBREAK.  00Z MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY QUICK CU DEVELOPMENT AROUND MID-DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN SIOUX CITY AFTER 22Z. FSD
REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
WHERE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY
ADVERTISE THUNDER IN SIOUX CITY. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RED FLAG WARNING WEDNESDAY GENERALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 35 MPH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 20 AND 25
PERCENT. FURTHER EAST...RH VALUES SHOULD BE HIGHER...ALTHOUGH STRONG
WINDS SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE
STRONG ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR RH VALUES AROUND 35 TO 40...BUT COULD POSSIBLE BE AS LOW
AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT IF THE MOISTURE INCREASE IS SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED. THUS WHILE RH SHOULD STAY TOO HIGH FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS...GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A WETTING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

ANOTHER BREEZY AND DRY DAY ON THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY END UP
NEEDING RED FLAG HEADLINES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND WEDNESDAYS RAIN MAY
SUPPRESS FIRE POTENTIAL THERE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 15 TO 30 MPH
WINDS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND AFTERNOON RH BETWEEN 15 AND 25
PERCENT. HELD OFF ON A WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN ITS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT
AND WE HAVE WARNINGS OUT WEDNESDAY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.

THE LOW RH CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...AROUND 20 PERCENT...BUT CURRENTLY
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY LOW ENOUGH TO AVOID RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS STILL
EXPECTED.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ255-256.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...DUX
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KABR 010151 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
851 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER A LITTLE
EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 MPH.
RH REMAINS LOW AT 15 TO 20 PERCENT BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE A
LITTLE OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LOWERED TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CONSIDERABLY DRY AIR IN
PLACE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BELOW 10 MPH UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF RIGHT AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS
WILL THEN LIKELY STABILIZE AND EVEN RISE ONCE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND 8Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WX CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT RANGE. WILL
LET TODAYS WARNING RIDE DESPITE VERY MARGINAL WINDS UP TO THIS
POINT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH MORE DANGEROUS DAY CONCERNING
FIRE CONDITIONS. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LINK UP WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT PER STEEP LAPSE RATES DURING MAX
HEATING. THUS WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY WEST RIVER. EAST SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER CRITERIA. HOWEVER THE WIND IN COMBINATION WITH
VERY LOW RH...DRY FUELS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED
ALONG WITH MY NEIGHBORS TO UPGRADE WATCH TO WARNING.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THEY ARE BASICALLY NON EXISTENT. MID
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY MIGHT SUPPORT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BUT THATS
ABOUT IT. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL TURN A LITTLE COOLER ON
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LONG WAVE PATTERN DOMINATED BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROF AND A WEAK
RIDGE TO THE WEST...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MID LEVEL LIFT THOUGH LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH A 20C SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION...AND CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 8 AND 10KFT. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. MIXED DOWN WINDS
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25KTS. RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK WESTERN CONUS TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES COULD EJECT OUT OVER THE
REGION AND BRING US A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD AS WARMER AIR IS SUPPRESSED
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRON WED AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ267>271.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CDT /5 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ003-015-033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...WISE








000
FXUS63 KABR 010151 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
851 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER A LITTLE
EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 MPH.
RH REMAINS LOW AT 15 TO 20 PERCENT BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE A
LITTLE OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LOWERED TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CONSIDERABLY DRY AIR IN
PLACE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BELOW 10 MPH UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF RIGHT AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS
WILL THEN LIKELY STABILIZE AND EVEN RISE ONCE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND 8Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WX CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT RANGE. WILL
LET TODAYS WARNING RIDE DESPITE VERY MARGINAL WINDS UP TO THIS
POINT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH MORE DANGEROUS DAY CONCERNING
FIRE CONDITIONS. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LINK UP WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT PER STEEP LAPSE RATES DURING MAX
HEATING. THUS WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY WEST RIVER. EAST SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER CRITERIA. HOWEVER THE WIND IN COMBINATION WITH
VERY LOW RH...DRY FUELS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED
ALONG WITH MY NEIGHBORS TO UPGRADE WATCH TO WARNING.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THEY ARE BASICALLY NON EXISTENT. MID
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY MIGHT SUPPORT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BUT THATS
ABOUT IT. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL TURN A LITTLE COOLER ON
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LONG WAVE PATTERN DOMINATED BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROF AND A WEAK
RIDGE TO THE WEST...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MID LEVEL LIFT THOUGH LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH A 20C SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION...AND CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 8 AND 10KFT. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. MIXED DOWN WINDS
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25KTS. RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK WESTERN CONUS TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES COULD EJECT OUT OVER THE
REGION AND BRING US A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD AS WARMER AIR IS SUPPRESSED
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRON WED AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ267>271.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CDT /5 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ003-015-033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...WISE







000
FXUS63 KABR 010151 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
851 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER A LITTLE
EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 MPH.
RH REMAINS LOW AT 15 TO 20 PERCENT BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE A
LITTLE OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LOWERED TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CONSIDERABLY DRY AIR IN
PLACE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BELOW 10 MPH UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF RIGHT AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS
WILL THEN LIKELY STABILIZE AND EVEN RISE ONCE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND 8Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WX CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT RANGE. WILL
LET TODAYS WARNING RIDE DESPITE VERY MARGINAL WINDS UP TO THIS
POINT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH MORE DANGEROUS DAY CONCERNING
FIRE CONDITIONS. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LINK UP WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT PER STEEP LAPSE RATES DURING MAX
HEATING. THUS WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY WEST RIVER. EAST SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER CRITERIA. HOWEVER THE WIND IN COMBINATION WITH
VERY LOW RH...DRY FUELS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED
ALONG WITH MY NEIGHBORS TO UPGRADE WATCH TO WARNING.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THEY ARE BASICALLY NON EXISTENT. MID
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY MIGHT SUPPORT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BUT THATS
ABOUT IT. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL TURN A LITTLE COOLER ON
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LONG WAVE PATTERN DOMINATED BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROF AND A WEAK
RIDGE TO THE WEST...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MID LEVEL LIFT THOUGH LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH A 20C SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION...AND CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 8 AND 10KFT. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. MIXED DOWN WINDS
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25KTS. RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK WESTERN CONUS TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES COULD EJECT OUT OVER THE
REGION AND BRING US A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD AS WARMER AIR IS SUPPRESSED
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRON WED AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ267>271.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CDT /5 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ003-015-033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...WISE








000
FXUS63 KABR 312337 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
637 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LOWERED TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CONSIDERABLY DRY AIR IN
PLACE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BELOW 10 MPH UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF RIGHT AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS
WILL THEN LIKELY STABILIZE AND EVEN RISE ONCE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND 8Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WX CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT RANGE. WILL
LET TODAYS WARNING RIDE DESPITE VERY MARGINAL WINDS UP TO THIS
POINT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH MORE DANGEROUS DAY CONCERNING
FIRE CONDITIONS. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LINK UP WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT PER STEEP LAPSE RATES DURING MAX
HEATING. THUS WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY WEST RIVER. EAST SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER CRITERIA. HOWEVER THE WIND IN COMBINATION WITH
VERY LOW RH...DRY FUELS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED
ALONG WITH MY NEIGHBORS TO UPGRADE WATCH TO WARNING.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THEY ARE BASICALLY NON EXISTENT. MID
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY MIGHT SUPPORT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BUT THATS
ABOUT IT. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL TURN A LITTLE COOLER ON
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LONG WAVE PATTERN DOMINATED BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROF AND A WEAK
RIDGE TO THE WEST...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MID LEVEL LIFT THOUGH LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH A 20C SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION...AND CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 8 AND 10KFT. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. MIXED DOWN WINDS
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25KTS. RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK WESTERN CONUS TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES COULD EJECT OUT OVER THE
REGION AND BRING US A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD AS WARMER AIR IS SUPPRESSED
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRON WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ267>271.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267-
     268.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CDT /5 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ003-015-033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...WISE








000
FXUS63 KABR 312337 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
637 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LOWERED TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CONSIDERABLY DRY AIR IN
PLACE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BELOW 10 MPH UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF RIGHT AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS
WILL THEN LIKELY STABILIZE AND EVEN RISE ONCE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND 8Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WX CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT RANGE. WILL
LET TODAYS WARNING RIDE DESPITE VERY MARGINAL WINDS UP TO THIS
POINT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH MORE DANGEROUS DAY CONCERNING
FIRE CONDITIONS. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LINK UP WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT PER STEEP LAPSE RATES DURING MAX
HEATING. THUS WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY WEST RIVER. EAST SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER CRITERIA. HOWEVER THE WIND IN COMBINATION WITH
VERY LOW RH...DRY FUELS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED
ALONG WITH MY NEIGHBORS TO UPGRADE WATCH TO WARNING.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THEY ARE BASICALLY NON EXISTENT. MID
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY MIGHT SUPPORT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BUT THATS
ABOUT IT. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL TURN A LITTLE COOLER ON
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LONG WAVE PATTERN DOMINATED BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROF AND A WEAK
RIDGE TO THE WEST...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MID LEVEL LIFT THOUGH LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH A 20C SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION...AND CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 8 AND 10KFT. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. MIXED DOWN WINDS
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25KTS. RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK WESTERN CONUS TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES COULD EJECT OUT OVER THE
REGION AND BRING US A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD AS WARMER AIR IS SUPPRESSED
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRON WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ267>271.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267-
     268.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CDT /5 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ003-015-033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...WISE









000
FXUS63 KABR 312337 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
637 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LOWERED TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CONSIDERABLY DRY AIR IN
PLACE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BELOW 10 MPH UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF RIGHT AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS
WILL THEN LIKELY STABILIZE AND EVEN RISE ONCE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND 8Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WX CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT RANGE. WILL
LET TODAYS WARNING RIDE DESPITE VERY MARGINAL WINDS UP TO THIS
POINT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH MORE DANGEROUS DAY CONCERNING
FIRE CONDITIONS. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LINK UP WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT PER STEEP LAPSE RATES DURING MAX
HEATING. THUS WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY WEST RIVER. EAST SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER CRITERIA. HOWEVER THE WIND IN COMBINATION WITH
VERY LOW RH...DRY FUELS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED
ALONG WITH MY NEIGHBORS TO UPGRADE WATCH TO WARNING.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THEY ARE BASICALLY NON EXISTENT. MID
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY MIGHT SUPPORT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BUT THATS
ABOUT IT. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL TURN A LITTLE COOLER ON
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LONG WAVE PATTERN DOMINATED BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROF AND A WEAK
RIDGE TO THE WEST...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MID LEVEL LIFT THOUGH LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH A 20C SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION...AND CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 8 AND 10KFT. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. MIXED DOWN WINDS
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25KTS. RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK WESTERN CONUS TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES COULD EJECT OUT OVER THE
REGION AND BRING US A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD AS WARMER AIR IS SUPPRESSED
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRON WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ267>271.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267-
     268.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CDT /5 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ003-015-033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...WISE









000
FXUS63 KABR 312337 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
637 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LOWERED TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CONSIDERABLY DRY AIR IN
PLACE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BELOW 10 MPH UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF RIGHT AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS
WILL THEN LIKELY STABILIZE AND EVEN RISE ONCE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND 8Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WX CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT RANGE. WILL
LET TODAYS WARNING RIDE DESPITE VERY MARGINAL WINDS UP TO THIS
POINT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH MORE DANGEROUS DAY CONCERNING
FIRE CONDITIONS. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LINK UP WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT PER STEEP LAPSE RATES DURING MAX
HEATING. THUS WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY WEST RIVER. EAST SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER CRITERIA. HOWEVER THE WIND IN COMBINATION WITH
VERY LOW RH...DRY FUELS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED
ALONG WITH MY NEIGHBORS TO UPGRADE WATCH TO WARNING.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THEY ARE BASICALLY NON EXISTENT. MID
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY MIGHT SUPPORT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BUT THATS
ABOUT IT. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL TURN A LITTLE COOLER ON
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LONG WAVE PATTERN DOMINATED BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROF AND A WEAK
RIDGE TO THE WEST...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MID LEVEL LIFT THOUGH LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH A 20C SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION...AND CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 8 AND 10KFT. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. MIXED DOWN WINDS
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25KTS. RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK WESTERN CONUS TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES COULD EJECT OUT OVER THE
REGION AND BRING US A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD AS WARMER AIR IS SUPPRESSED
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRON WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ267>271.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267-
     268.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CDT /5 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ003-015-033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...WISE









000
FXUS63 KABR 312337 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
637 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LOWERED TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CONSIDERABLY DRY AIR IN
PLACE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BELOW 10 MPH UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF RIGHT AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS
WILL THEN LIKELY STABILIZE AND EVEN RISE ONCE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND 8Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WX CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT RANGE. WILL
LET TODAYS WARNING RIDE DESPITE VERY MARGINAL WINDS UP TO THIS
POINT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH MORE DANGEROUS DAY CONCERNING
FIRE CONDITIONS. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LINK UP WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT PER STEEP LAPSE RATES DURING MAX
HEATING. THUS WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY WEST RIVER. EAST SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER CRITERIA. HOWEVER THE WIND IN COMBINATION WITH
VERY LOW RH...DRY FUELS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED
ALONG WITH MY NEIGHBORS TO UPGRADE WATCH TO WARNING.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THEY ARE BASICALLY NON EXISTENT. MID
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY MIGHT SUPPORT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BUT THATS
ABOUT IT. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL TURN A LITTLE COOLER ON
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LONG WAVE PATTERN DOMINATED BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROF AND A WEAK
RIDGE TO THE WEST...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MID LEVEL LIFT THOUGH LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH A 20C SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION...AND CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 8 AND 10KFT. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. MIXED DOWN WINDS
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25KTS. RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK WESTERN CONUS TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES COULD EJECT OUT OVER THE
REGION AND BRING US A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD AS WARMER AIR IS SUPPRESSED
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRON WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ267>271.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267-
     268.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CDT /5 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ003-015-033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...WISE









000
FXUS63 KUNR 312332
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
532 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN WITH
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...PRES FALLS
EXTEND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROF.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROF WILL WORK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH ASSOCD
CDFNT PUSHING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AFT MIDNIGHT. 5-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES AND 850MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. WIND
ADVISORY POSTED FOR NWRN SD AND PARTS OF SCNTRL SD. A FEW -SHRA
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...CDFNT WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACRS THE CWFA. TEMPS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACRS NERN WY AND NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH WIND
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. FLOW THEN
BECOMES NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS THE CWA LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015
DRY AND VERY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS.
HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. RED
FLAG OR NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS RIGHT NOW AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL FIRE ZONES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MDT /6 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-032-043-046.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-025-026-030-031-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...26






000
FXUS63 KUNR 312332
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
532 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN WITH
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...PRES FALLS
EXTEND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROF.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROF WILL WORK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH ASSOCD
CDFNT PUSHING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AFT MIDNIGHT. 5-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES AND 850MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. WIND
ADVISORY POSTED FOR NWRN SD AND PARTS OF SCNTRL SD. A FEW -SHRA
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...CDFNT WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACRS THE CWFA. TEMPS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACRS NERN WY AND NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH WIND
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. FLOW THEN
BECOMES NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS THE CWA LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015
DRY AND VERY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS.
HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. RED
FLAG OR NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS RIGHT NOW AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL FIRE ZONES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MDT /6 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-032-043-046.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-025-026-030-031-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 312332
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
532 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN WITH
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...PRES FALLS
EXTEND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROF.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROF WILL WORK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH ASSOCD
CDFNT PUSHING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AFT MIDNIGHT. 5-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES AND 850MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. WIND
ADVISORY POSTED FOR NWRN SD AND PARTS OF SCNTRL SD. A FEW -SHRA
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...CDFNT WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACRS THE CWFA. TEMPS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACRS NERN WY AND NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH WIND
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. FLOW THEN
BECOMES NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS THE CWA LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015
DRY AND VERY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS.
HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. RED
FLAG OR NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS RIGHT NOW AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL FIRE ZONES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MDT /6 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-032-043-046.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-025-026-030-031-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 312332
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
532 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN WITH
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...PRES FALLS
EXTEND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROF.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROF WILL WORK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH ASSOCD
CDFNT PUSHING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AFT MIDNIGHT. 5-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES AND 850MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. WIND
ADVISORY POSTED FOR NWRN SD AND PARTS OF SCNTRL SD. A FEW -SHRA
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...CDFNT WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACRS THE CWFA. TEMPS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACRS NERN WY AND NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH WIND
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. FLOW THEN
BECOMES NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS THE CWA LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015
DRY AND VERY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS.
HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. RED
FLAG OR NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS RIGHT NOW AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL FIRE ZONES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MDT /6 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-032-043-046.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-025-026-030-031-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...26






000
FXUS63 KFSD 312304
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
604 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL
WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
ROCKIES SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. INITIALLY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TONIGHT
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONALLY QUITE MILD IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. FOLLOWED THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED MODELS.

MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN NORTH
DAKOTA. A POTENT COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MID MORNING AND THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR MIDDAY. SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT
AREAS DURING THE MORNING. ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN
PARTICULAR...WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS SO
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM WHEN THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS IN EARNEST IN THE MORNING...PARTICULARLY
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO REACH THE 50S. TEMPERATURES HEAT NICELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 EXPECTED IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
CORNER. INSTABILITY INCREASES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST IOWA
AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
HIGHER MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. NAM PRODUCES CAPES AS HIGH AS 3000
J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE SIOUX CITY THROUGH SPENCER IOWA.
CAPPING WILL HOLD OFF CONVECTION IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SHOULD INITIALIZE CONVECTION. SHEAR
IS DECENT BUT MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INITIAL
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE
STORMS INCREASE...THESE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR AND PROCEED
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEVERE
STORMS TO CONTAIN UP TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL INITIALIZE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE SIOUX FALLS METRO AREA BUT IF THE FRONT DOES SLOW A BIT...THIS
THREAT MAY INCREASE. FOR TIMING OF POPS AND QPF...MAINLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF THE ARW AND GEM REGIONAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CONSENSUS AMONG THE HI RES MODELS IS THAT BY 7 PM OUR LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A SIOUX CITY TO SPENCER
IOWA LINE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS AROUND 60
MPH AS THE LINE PUSHES SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE STORMS TO BE CLEAR OF
THE CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN 9 AND 11 PM. WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S. EXPECTING
A BREEZY AND COOLER THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO
30 MPH...GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH...STRONGEST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GIVEN GOOD MIXING INTO DRY AIR ALOFT...THINKING DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWER THAN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS WILL INTRODUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW.

COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH 20S AND 30S
FOR LOWS AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. A WAVE WILL ALSO BE
TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT THINK ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE WEEKEND SHOULD GENERALLY STAY
DRY...OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS A FEW WAVES PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE 50S AND 60S...BUT
SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER ON RECENT RUNS AS THE WAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH
PUSHES SOME COOLER AIR SOUTH. THUS LOWERED HIGHS...WITH 50S AND 60S
AGAIN LIKELY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD
HELP INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME THUNDER. STILL A WAYS OUT AND MODELS
WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO PIN DOWN DETAILS...BUT FOR NOW CAN
JUST SAY THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE. GIVEN THAT...WOULD ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER. CURRENTLY CONSENSUS IS 40S AND 50S
FOR HIGHS...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET
CLOSER DEPENDING ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE WITH WINDS. A
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND WILL DECOUPLE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BUILDING...WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LLWS RISK ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WE
WILL TURN MIXY AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK ENDING THE LLWS RISK. WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE VERY WINDY WITH A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
PREVAILING.

CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 3PM...ESPECIALLY
IN THE FSD/SUX CORRIDOR. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION
TAKE PLACE NEAR SUX...SO WILL INTRODUCE A VCTS FOR GUIDANCE
PURPOSES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RED FLAG WARNING WEDNESDAY GENERALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 35 MPH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 20 AND 25
PERCENT. FURTHER EAST...RH VALUES SHOULD BE HIGHER...ALTHOUGH STRONG
WINDS SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE
STRONG ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR RH VALUES AROUND 35 TO 40...BUT COULD POSSIBLE BE AS LOW
AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT IF THE MOISTURE INCREASE IS SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED. THUS WHILE RH SHOULD STAY TOO HIGH FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS...GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A WETTING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

ANOTHER BREEZY AND DRY DAY ON THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY END UP
NEEDING RED FLAG HEADLINES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND WEDNESDAYS RAIN MAY
SUPPRESS FIRE POTENTIAL THERE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 15 TO 30 MPH
WINDS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND AFTERNOON RH BETWEEN 15 AND 25
PERCENT. HELD OFF ON A WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN ITS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT
AND WE HAVE WARNINGS OUT WEDNESDAY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.

THE LOW RH CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...AROUND 20 PERCENT...BUT CURRENTLY
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY LOW ENOUGH TO AVOID RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS STILL
EXPECTED.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ255-256.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...DUX
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 312304
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
604 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL
WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
ROCKIES SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. INITIALLY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TONIGHT
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONALLY QUITE MILD IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. FOLLOWED THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED MODELS.

MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN NORTH
DAKOTA. A POTENT COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MID MORNING AND THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR MIDDAY. SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT
AREAS DURING THE MORNING. ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN
PARTICULAR...WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS SO
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM WHEN THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS IN EARNEST IN THE MORNING...PARTICULARLY
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO REACH THE 50S. TEMPERATURES HEAT NICELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 EXPECTED IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
CORNER. INSTABILITY INCREASES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST IOWA
AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
HIGHER MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. NAM PRODUCES CAPES AS HIGH AS 3000
J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE SIOUX CITY THROUGH SPENCER IOWA.
CAPPING WILL HOLD OFF CONVECTION IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SHOULD INITIALIZE CONVECTION. SHEAR
IS DECENT BUT MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INITIAL
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE
STORMS INCREASE...THESE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR AND PROCEED
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEVERE
STORMS TO CONTAIN UP TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL INITIALIZE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE SIOUX FALLS METRO AREA BUT IF THE FRONT DOES SLOW A BIT...THIS
THREAT MAY INCREASE. FOR TIMING OF POPS AND QPF...MAINLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF THE ARW AND GEM REGIONAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CONSENSUS AMONG THE HI RES MODELS IS THAT BY 7 PM OUR LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A SIOUX CITY TO SPENCER
IOWA LINE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS AROUND 60
MPH AS THE LINE PUSHES SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE STORMS TO BE CLEAR OF
THE CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN 9 AND 11 PM. WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S. EXPECTING
A BREEZY AND COOLER THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO
30 MPH...GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH...STRONGEST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GIVEN GOOD MIXING INTO DRY AIR ALOFT...THINKING DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWER THAN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS WILL INTRODUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW.

COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH 20S AND 30S
FOR LOWS AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. A WAVE WILL ALSO BE
TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT THINK ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE WEEKEND SHOULD GENERALLY STAY
DRY...OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS A FEW WAVES PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE 50S AND 60S...BUT
SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER ON RECENT RUNS AS THE WAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH
PUSHES SOME COOLER AIR SOUTH. THUS LOWERED HIGHS...WITH 50S AND 60S
AGAIN LIKELY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD
HELP INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME THUNDER. STILL A WAYS OUT AND MODELS
WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO PIN DOWN DETAILS...BUT FOR NOW CAN
JUST SAY THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE. GIVEN THAT...WOULD ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER. CURRENTLY CONSENSUS IS 40S AND 50S
FOR HIGHS...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET
CLOSER DEPENDING ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE WITH WINDS. A
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND WILL DECOUPLE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BUILDING...WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LLWS RISK ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WE
WILL TURN MIXY AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK ENDING THE LLWS RISK. WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE VERY WINDY WITH A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
PREVAILING.

CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 3PM...ESPECIALLY
IN THE FSD/SUX CORRIDOR. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION
TAKE PLACE NEAR SUX...SO WILL INTRODUCE A VCTS FOR GUIDANCE
PURPOSES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RED FLAG WARNING WEDNESDAY GENERALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 35 MPH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 20 AND 25
PERCENT. FURTHER EAST...RH VALUES SHOULD BE HIGHER...ALTHOUGH STRONG
WINDS SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE
STRONG ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR RH VALUES AROUND 35 TO 40...BUT COULD POSSIBLE BE AS LOW
AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT IF THE MOISTURE INCREASE IS SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED. THUS WHILE RH SHOULD STAY TOO HIGH FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS...GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A WETTING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

ANOTHER BREEZY AND DRY DAY ON THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY END UP
NEEDING RED FLAG HEADLINES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND WEDNESDAYS RAIN MAY
SUPPRESS FIRE POTENTIAL THERE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 15 TO 30 MPH
WINDS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND AFTERNOON RH BETWEEN 15 AND 25
PERCENT. HELD OFF ON A WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN ITS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT
AND WE HAVE WARNINGS OUT WEDNESDAY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.

THE LOW RH CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...AROUND 20 PERCENT...BUT CURRENTLY
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY LOW ENOUGH TO AVOID RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS STILL
EXPECTED.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ255-256.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...DUX
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 312304
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
604 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL
WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
ROCKIES SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. INITIALLY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TONIGHT
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONALLY QUITE MILD IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. FOLLOWED THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED MODELS.

MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN NORTH
DAKOTA. A POTENT COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MID MORNING AND THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR MIDDAY. SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT
AREAS DURING THE MORNING. ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN
PARTICULAR...WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS SO
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM WHEN THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS IN EARNEST IN THE MORNING...PARTICULARLY
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO REACH THE 50S. TEMPERATURES HEAT NICELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 EXPECTED IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
CORNER. INSTABILITY INCREASES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST IOWA
AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
HIGHER MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. NAM PRODUCES CAPES AS HIGH AS 3000
J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE SIOUX CITY THROUGH SPENCER IOWA.
CAPPING WILL HOLD OFF CONVECTION IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SHOULD INITIALIZE CONVECTION. SHEAR
IS DECENT BUT MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INITIAL
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE
STORMS INCREASE...THESE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR AND PROCEED
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEVERE
STORMS TO CONTAIN UP TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL INITIALIZE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE SIOUX FALLS METRO AREA BUT IF THE FRONT DOES SLOW A BIT...THIS
THREAT MAY INCREASE. FOR TIMING OF POPS AND QPF...MAINLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF THE ARW AND GEM REGIONAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CONSENSUS AMONG THE HI RES MODELS IS THAT BY 7 PM OUR LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A SIOUX CITY TO SPENCER
IOWA LINE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS AROUND 60
MPH AS THE LINE PUSHES SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE STORMS TO BE CLEAR OF
THE CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN 9 AND 11 PM. WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S. EXPECTING
A BREEZY AND COOLER THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO
30 MPH...GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH...STRONGEST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GIVEN GOOD MIXING INTO DRY AIR ALOFT...THINKING DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWER THAN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS WILL INTRODUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW.

COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH 20S AND 30S
FOR LOWS AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. A WAVE WILL ALSO BE
TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT THINK ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE WEEKEND SHOULD GENERALLY STAY
DRY...OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS A FEW WAVES PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE 50S AND 60S...BUT
SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER ON RECENT RUNS AS THE WAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH
PUSHES SOME COOLER AIR SOUTH. THUS LOWERED HIGHS...WITH 50S AND 60S
AGAIN LIKELY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD
HELP INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME THUNDER. STILL A WAYS OUT AND MODELS
WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO PIN DOWN DETAILS...BUT FOR NOW CAN
JUST SAY THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE. GIVEN THAT...WOULD ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER. CURRENTLY CONSENSUS IS 40S AND 50S
FOR HIGHS...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET
CLOSER DEPENDING ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE WITH WINDS. A
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND WILL DECOUPLE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BUILDING...WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LLWS RISK ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WE
WILL TURN MIXY AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK ENDING THE LLWS RISK. WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE VERY WINDY WITH A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
PREVAILING.

CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 3PM...ESPECIALLY
IN THE FSD/SUX CORRIDOR. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION
TAKE PLACE NEAR SUX...SO WILL INTRODUCE A VCTS FOR GUIDANCE
PURPOSES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RED FLAG WARNING WEDNESDAY GENERALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 35 MPH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 20 AND 25
PERCENT. FURTHER EAST...RH VALUES SHOULD BE HIGHER...ALTHOUGH STRONG
WINDS SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE
STRONG ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR RH VALUES AROUND 35 TO 40...BUT COULD POSSIBLE BE AS LOW
AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT IF THE MOISTURE INCREASE IS SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED. THUS WHILE RH SHOULD STAY TOO HIGH FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS...GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A WETTING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

ANOTHER BREEZY AND DRY DAY ON THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY END UP
NEEDING RED FLAG HEADLINES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND WEDNESDAYS RAIN MAY
SUPPRESS FIRE POTENTIAL THERE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 15 TO 30 MPH
WINDS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND AFTERNOON RH BETWEEN 15 AND 25
PERCENT. HELD OFF ON A WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN ITS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT
AND WE HAVE WARNINGS OUT WEDNESDAY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.

THE LOW RH CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...AROUND 20 PERCENT...BUT CURRENTLY
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY LOW ENOUGH TO AVOID RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS STILL
EXPECTED.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ255-256.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...DUX
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 312304
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
604 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL
WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
ROCKIES SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. INITIALLY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TONIGHT
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONALLY QUITE MILD IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. FOLLOWED THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED MODELS.

MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN NORTH
DAKOTA. A POTENT COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MID MORNING AND THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR MIDDAY. SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT
AREAS DURING THE MORNING. ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN
PARTICULAR...WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS SO
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM WHEN THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS IN EARNEST IN THE MORNING...PARTICULARLY
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO REACH THE 50S. TEMPERATURES HEAT NICELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 EXPECTED IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
CORNER. INSTABILITY INCREASES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST IOWA
AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
HIGHER MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. NAM PRODUCES CAPES AS HIGH AS 3000
J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE SIOUX CITY THROUGH SPENCER IOWA.
CAPPING WILL HOLD OFF CONVECTION IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SHOULD INITIALIZE CONVECTION. SHEAR
IS DECENT BUT MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INITIAL
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE
STORMS INCREASE...THESE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR AND PROCEED
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEVERE
STORMS TO CONTAIN UP TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL INITIALIZE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE SIOUX FALLS METRO AREA BUT IF THE FRONT DOES SLOW A BIT...THIS
THREAT MAY INCREASE. FOR TIMING OF POPS AND QPF...MAINLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF THE ARW AND GEM REGIONAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CONSENSUS AMONG THE HI RES MODELS IS THAT BY 7 PM OUR LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A SIOUX CITY TO SPENCER
IOWA LINE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS AROUND 60
MPH AS THE LINE PUSHES SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE STORMS TO BE CLEAR OF
THE CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN 9 AND 11 PM. WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S. EXPECTING
A BREEZY AND COOLER THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO
30 MPH...GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH...STRONGEST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GIVEN GOOD MIXING INTO DRY AIR ALOFT...THINKING DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWER THAN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS WILL INTRODUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW.

COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH 20S AND 30S
FOR LOWS AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. A WAVE WILL ALSO BE
TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT THINK ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE WEEKEND SHOULD GENERALLY STAY
DRY...OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS A FEW WAVES PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE 50S AND 60S...BUT
SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER ON RECENT RUNS AS THE WAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH
PUSHES SOME COOLER AIR SOUTH. THUS LOWERED HIGHS...WITH 50S AND 60S
AGAIN LIKELY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD
HELP INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME THUNDER. STILL A WAYS OUT AND MODELS
WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO PIN DOWN DETAILS...BUT FOR NOW CAN
JUST SAY THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE. GIVEN THAT...WOULD ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER. CURRENTLY CONSENSUS IS 40S AND 50S
FOR HIGHS...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET
CLOSER DEPENDING ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE WITH WINDS. A
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND WILL DECOUPLE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BUILDING...WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LLWS RISK ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WE
WILL TURN MIXY AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK ENDING THE LLWS RISK. WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE VERY WINDY WITH A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
PREVAILING.

CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 3PM...ESPECIALLY
IN THE FSD/SUX CORRIDOR. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION
TAKE PLACE NEAR SUX...SO WILL INTRODUCE A VCTS FOR GUIDANCE
PURPOSES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RED FLAG WARNING WEDNESDAY GENERALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 35 MPH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 20 AND 25
PERCENT. FURTHER EAST...RH VALUES SHOULD BE HIGHER...ALTHOUGH STRONG
WINDS SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE
STRONG ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR RH VALUES AROUND 35 TO 40...BUT COULD POSSIBLE BE AS LOW
AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT IF THE MOISTURE INCREASE IS SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED. THUS WHILE RH SHOULD STAY TOO HIGH FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS...GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A WETTING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

ANOTHER BREEZY AND DRY DAY ON THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY END UP
NEEDING RED FLAG HEADLINES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND WEDNESDAYS RAIN MAY
SUPPRESS FIRE POTENTIAL THERE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 15 TO 30 MPH
WINDS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND AFTERNOON RH BETWEEN 15 AND 25
PERCENT. HELD OFF ON A WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN ITS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT
AND WE HAVE WARNINGS OUT WEDNESDAY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.

THE LOW RH CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...AROUND 20 PERCENT...BUT CURRENTLY
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY LOW ENOUGH TO AVOID RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS STILL
EXPECTED.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ255-256.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...DUX
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 312052
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
352 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL
WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
ROCKIES SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. INITIALLY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TONIGHT
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONALLY QUITE MILD IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. FOLLOWED THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED MODELS.

MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN NORTH
DAKOTA. A POTENT COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MID MORNING AND THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR MIDDAY. SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT
AREAS DURING THE MORNING. ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN
PARTICULAR...WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS SO
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM WHEN THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS IN EARNEST IN THE MORNING...PARTICULARLY
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO REACH THE 50S. TEMPERATURES HEAT NICELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 EXPECTED IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
CORNER. INSTABILITY INCREASES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST IOWA
AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
HIGHER MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. NAM PRODUCES CAPES AS HIGH AS 3000
J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE SIOUX CITY THROUGH SPENCER IOWA.
CAPPING WILL HOLD OFF CONVECTION IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SHOULD INITIALIZE CONVECTION. SHEAR
IS DECENT BUT MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INITIAL
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE
STORMS INCREASE...THESE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR AND PROCEED
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEVERE
STORMS TO CONTAIN UP TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL INITIALIZE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE SIOUX FALLS METRO AREA BUT IF THE FRONT DOES SLOW A BIT...THIS
THREAT MAY INCREASE. FOR TIMING OF POPS AND QPF...MAINLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF THE ARW AND GEM REGIONAL.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CONSENSUS AMONG THE HI RES MODELS IS THAT BY 7 PM OUR LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A SIOUX CITY TO SPENCER
IOWA LINE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS AROUND 60
MPH AS THE LINE PUSHES SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE STORMS TO BE CLEAR OF
THE CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN 9 AND 11 PM. WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S. EXPECTING
A BREEZY AND COOLER THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO
30 MPH...GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH...STRONGEST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GIVEN GOOD MIXING INTO DRY AIR ALOFT...THINKING DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWER THAN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS WILL INTRODUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW.

COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH 20S AND 30S
FOR LOWS AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. A WAVE WILL ALSO BE
TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT THINK ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE WEEKEND SHOULD GENERALLY STAY
DRY...OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS A FEW WAVES PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE 50S AND 60S...BUT
SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER ON RECENT RUNS AS THE WAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH
PUSHES SOME COOLER AIR SOUTH. THUS LOWERED HIGHS...WITH 50S AND 60S
AGAIN LIKELY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD
HELP INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME THUNDER. STILL A WAYS OUT AND MODELS
WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO PIN DOWN DETAILS...BUT FOR NOW CAN
JUST SAY THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE. GIVEN THAT...WOULD ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER. CURRENTLY CONSENSUS IS 40S AND 50S
FOR HIGHS...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET
CLOSER DEPENDING ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29 AFTER 04Z...INCLUDING KFSD AND KSUX. SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL NEGATE WIND SHEAR MENTION. WINDS
WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...AND LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST SD WEDNESDAY MORNING...REACHING THE I29
CORRIDOR AROUND 18Z. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RED FLAG WARNING WEDNESDAY GENERALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 35 MPH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 20 AND 25
PERCENT. FURTHER EAST...RH VALUES SHOULD BE HIGHER...ALTHOUGH STRONG
WINDS SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE
STRONG ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR RH VALUES AROUND 35 TO 40...BUT COULD POSSIBLE BE AS LOW
AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT IF THE MOISTURE INCREASE IS SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED. THUS WHILE RH SHOULD STAY TOO HIGH FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS...GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A WETTING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

ANOTHER BREEZY AND DRY DAY ON THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY END UP
NEEDING RED FLAG HEADLINES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND WEDNESDAYS RAIN MAY
SUPPRESS FIRE POTENTIAL THERE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 15 TO 30 MPH
WINDS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND AFTERNOON RH BETWEEN 15 AND 25
PERCENT. HELD OFF ON A WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN ITS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT
AND WE HAVE WARNINGS OUT WEDNESDAY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.

THE LOW RH CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...AROUND 20 PERCENT...BUT CURRENTLY
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY LOW ENOUGH TO AVOID RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS STILL
EXPECTED.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ255-256.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KFSD 312052
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
352 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL
WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
ROCKIES SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. INITIALLY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TONIGHT
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONALLY QUITE MILD IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. FOLLOWED THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED MODELS.

MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN NORTH
DAKOTA. A POTENT COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MID MORNING AND THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR MIDDAY. SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT
AREAS DURING THE MORNING. ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN
PARTICULAR...WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS SO
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM WHEN THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS IN EARNEST IN THE MORNING...PARTICULARLY
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO REACH THE 50S. TEMPERATURES HEAT NICELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 EXPECTED IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
CORNER. INSTABILITY INCREASES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST IOWA
AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
HIGHER MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. NAM PRODUCES CAPES AS HIGH AS 3000
J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE SIOUX CITY THROUGH SPENCER IOWA.
CAPPING WILL HOLD OFF CONVECTION IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SHOULD INITIALIZE CONVECTION. SHEAR
IS DECENT BUT MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INITIAL
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE
STORMS INCREASE...THESE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR AND PROCEED
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEVERE
STORMS TO CONTAIN UP TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL INITIALIZE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE SIOUX FALLS METRO AREA BUT IF THE FRONT DOES SLOW A BIT...THIS
THREAT MAY INCREASE. FOR TIMING OF POPS AND QPF...MAINLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF THE ARW AND GEM REGIONAL.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CONSENSUS AMONG THE HI RES MODELS IS THAT BY 7 PM OUR LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A SIOUX CITY TO SPENCER
IOWA LINE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS AROUND 60
MPH AS THE LINE PUSHES SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE STORMS TO BE CLEAR OF
THE CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN 9 AND 11 PM. WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S. EXPECTING
A BREEZY AND COOLER THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO
30 MPH...GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH...STRONGEST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GIVEN GOOD MIXING INTO DRY AIR ALOFT...THINKING DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWER THAN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS WILL INTRODUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW.

COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH 20S AND 30S
FOR LOWS AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. A WAVE WILL ALSO BE
TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT THINK ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE WEEKEND SHOULD GENERALLY STAY
DRY...OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS A FEW WAVES PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE 50S AND 60S...BUT
SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER ON RECENT RUNS AS THE WAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH
PUSHES SOME COOLER AIR SOUTH. THUS LOWERED HIGHS...WITH 50S AND 60S
AGAIN LIKELY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD
HELP INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME THUNDER. STILL A WAYS OUT AND MODELS
WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO PIN DOWN DETAILS...BUT FOR NOW CAN
JUST SAY THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE. GIVEN THAT...WOULD ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER. CURRENTLY CONSENSUS IS 40S AND 50S
FOR HIGHS...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET
CLOSER DEPENDING ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29 AFTER 04Z...INCLUDING KFSD AND KSUX. SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL NEGATE WIND SHEAR MENTION. WINDS
WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...AND LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST SD WEDNESDAY MORNING...REACHING THE I29
CORRIDOR AROUND 18Z. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RED FLAG WARNING WEDNESDAY GENERALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 35 MPH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 20 AND 25
PERCENT. FURTHER EAST...RH VALUES SHOULD BE HIGHER...ALTHOUGH STRONG
WINDS SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE
STRONG ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR RH VALUES AROUND 35 TO 40...BUT COULD POSSIBLE BE AS LOW
AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT IF THE MOISTURE INCREASE IS SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED. THUS WHILE RH SHOULD STAY TOO HIGH FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS...GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A WETTING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

ANOTHER BREEZY AND DRY DAY ON THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY END UP
NEEDING RED FLAG HEADLINES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND WEDNESDAYS RAIN MAY
SUPPRESS FIRE POTENTIAL THERE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 15 TO 30 MPH
WINDS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND AFTERNOON RH BETWEEN 15 AND 25
PERCENT. HELD OFF ON A WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN ITS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT
AND WE HAVE WARNINGS OUT WEDNESDAY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.

THE LOW RH CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...AROUND 20 PERCENT...BUT CURRENTLY
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY LOW ENOUGH TO AVOID RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS STILL
EXPECTED.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ255-256.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 312052
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
352 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL
WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
ROCKIES SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. INITIALLY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TONIGHT
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONALLY QUITE MILD IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. FOLLOWED THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED MODELS.

MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN NORTH
DAKOTA. A POTENT COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MID MORNING AND THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR MIDDAY. SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT
AREAS DURING THE MORNING. ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN
PARTICULAR...WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS SO
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM WHEN THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS IN EARNEST IN THE MORNING...PARTICULARLY
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO REACH THE 50S. TEMPERATURES HEAT NICELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 EXPECTED IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
CORNER. INSTABILITY INCREASES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST IOWA
AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
HIGHER MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. NAM PRODUCES CAPES AS HIGH AS 3000
J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE SIOUX CITY THROUGH SPENCER IOWA.
CAPPING WILL HOLD OFF CONVECTION IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SHOULD INITIALIZE CONVECTION. SHEAR
IS DECENT BUT MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INITIAL
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE
STORMS INCREASE...THESE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR AND PROCEED
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEVERE
STORMS TO CONTAIN UP TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL INITIALIZE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE SIOUX FALLS METRO AREA BUT IF THE FRONT DOES SLOW A BIT...THIS
THREAT MAY INCREASE. FOR TIMING OF POPS AND QPF...MAINLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF THE ARW AND GEM REGIONAL.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CONSENSUS AMONG THE HI RES MODELS IS THAT BY 7 PM OUR LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A SIOUX CITY TO SPENCER
IOWA LINE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS AROUND 60
MPH AS THE LINE PUSHES SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE STORMS TO BE CLEAR OF
THE CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN 9 AND 11 PM. WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S. EXPECTING
A BREEZY AND COOLER THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO
30 MPH...GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH...STRONGEST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GIVEN GOOD MIXING INTO DRY AIR ALOFT...THINKING DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWER THAN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS WILL INTRODUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW.

COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH 20S AND 30S
FOR LOWS AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. A WAVE WILL ALSO BE
TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT THINK ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE WEEKEND SHOULD GENERALLY STAY
DRY...OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS A FEW WAVES PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE 50S AND 60S...BUT
SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER ON RECENT RUNS AS THE WAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH
PUSHES SOME COOLER AIR SOUTH. THUS LOWERED HIGHS...WITH 50S AND 60S
AGAIN LIKELY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD
HELP INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME THUNDER. STILL A WAYS OUT AND MODELS
WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO PIN DOWN DETAILS...BUT FOR NOW CAN
JUST SAY THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE. GIVEN THAT...WOULD ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER. CURRENTLY CONSENSUS IS 40S AND 50S
FOR HIGHS...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET
CLOSER DEPENDING ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29 AFTER 04Z...INCLUDING KFSD AND KSUX. SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL NEGATE WIND SHEAR MENTION. WINDS
WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...AND LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST SD WEDNESDAY MORNING...REACHING THE I29
CORRIDOR AROUND 18Z. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RED FLAG WARNING WEDNESDAY GENERALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 35 MPH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 20 AND 25
PERCENT. FURTHER EAST...RH VALUES SHOULD BE HIGHER...ALTHOUGH STRONG
WINDS SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE
STRONG ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR RH VALUES AROUND 35 TO 40...BUT COULD POSSIBLE BE AS LOW
AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT IF THE MOISTURE INCREASE IS SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED. THUS WHILE RH SHOULD STAY TOO HIGH FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS...GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A WETTING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

ANOTHER BREEZY AND DRY DAY ON THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY END UP
NEEDING RED FLAG HEADLINES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND WEDNESDAYS RAIN MAY
SUPPRESS FIRE POTENTIAL THERE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 15 TO 30 MPH
WINDS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND AFTERNOON RH BETWEEN 15 AND 25
PERCENT. HELD OFF ON A WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN ITS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT
AND WE HAVE WARNINGS OUT WEDNESDAY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.

THE LOW RH CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...AROUND 20 PERCENT...BUT CURRENTLY
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY LOW ENOUGH TO AVOID RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS STILL
EXPECTED.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ255-256.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD



000
FXUS63 KUNR 312008
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
208 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN WITH
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...PRES FALLS
EXTEND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROF.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROF WILL WORK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH ASSOCD
CDFNT PUSHING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AFT MIDNIGHT. 5-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES AND 850MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. WIND
ADVISORY POSTED FOR NWRN SD AND PARTS OF SCNTRL SD. A FEW -SHRA
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...CDFNT WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACRS THE CWFA. TEMPS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACRS NERN WY AND NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH WIND
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. FLOW THEN
BECOMES NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS THE CWA LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015
DRY AND VERY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS.
HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. RED
FLAG OR NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS RIGHT NOW AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL FIRE ZONES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MDT /6 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-032-043-046.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-025-026-030-031-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26
FIRE WEATHER...26






000
FXUS63 KUNR 312008
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
208 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN WITH
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...PRES FALLS
EXTEND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROF.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROF WILL WORK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH ASSOCD
CDFNT PUSHING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AFT MIDNIGHT. 5-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES AND 850MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. WIND
ADVISORY POSTED FOR NWRN SD AND PARTS OF SCNTRL SD. A FEW -SHRA
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...CDFNT WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACRS THE CWFA. TEMPS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACRS NERN WY AND NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH WIND
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. FLOW THEN
BECOMES NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS THE CWA LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015
DRY AND VERY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS.
HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. RED
FLAG OR NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS RIGHT NOW AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL FIRE ZONES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MDT /6 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-032-043-046.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-025-026-030-031-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26
FIRE WEATHER...26







000
FXUS63 KABR 312005
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WX CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT RANGE. WILL
LET TODAYS WARNING RIDE DESPITE VERY MARGINAL WINDS UP TO THIS
POINT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH MORE DANGEROUS DAY CONCERNING
FIRE CONDITIONS. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LINK UP WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT PER STEEP LAPSE RATES DURING MAX
HEATING. THUS WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY WEST RIVER. EAST SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER CRITERIA. HOWEVER THE WIND IN COMBINATION WITH
VERY LOW RH...DRY FUELS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED
ALONG WITH MY NEIGHBORS TO UPGRADE WATCH TO WARNING.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THEY ARE BASICALLY NON EXISTENT. MID
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY MIGHT SUPPORT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BUT THATS
ABOUT IT. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL TURN A LITTLE COOLER ON
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LONG WAVE PATTERN DOMINATED BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROF AND A WEAK
RIDGE TO THE WEST...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MID LEVEL LIFT THOUGH LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH A 20C SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION...AND CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 8 AND 10KFT. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. MIXED DOWN WINDS
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25KTS. RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK WESTERN CONUS TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES COULD EJECT OUT OVER THE
REGION AND BRING US A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD AS WARMER AIR IS SUPPRESSED
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ267>271.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267-
     268.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CDT /5 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ003-015-033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY






000
FXUS63 KABR 312005
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WX CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT RANGE. WILL
LET TODAYS WARNING RIDE DESPITE VERY MARGINAL WINDS UP TO THIS
POINT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH MORE DANGEROUS DAY CONCERNING
FIRE CONDITIONS. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LINK UP WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT PER STEEP LAPSE RATES DURING MAX
HEATING. THUS WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY WEST RIVER. EAST SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER CRITERIA. HOWEVER THE WIND IN COMBINATION WITH
VERY LOW RH...DRY FUELS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED
ALONG WITH MY NEIGHBORS TO UPGRADE WATCH TO WARNING.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THEY ARE BASICALLY NON EXISTENT. MID
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY MIGHT SUPPORT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BUT THATS
ABOUT IT. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL TURN A LITTLE COOLER ON
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LONG WAVE PATTERN DOMINATED BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROF AND A WEAK
RIDGE TO THE WEST...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MID LEVEL LIFT THOUGH LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH A 20C SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION...AND CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 8 AND 10KFT. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. MIXED DOWN WINDS
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25KTS. RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK WESTERN CONUS TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES COULD EJECT OUT OVER THE
REGION AND BRING US A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD AS WARMER AIR IS SUPPRESSED
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ267>271.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267-
     268.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CDT /5 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ003-015-033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY







000
FXUS63 KABR 312005
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WX CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT RANGE. WILL
LET TODAYS WARNING RIDE DESPITE VERY MARGINAL WINDS UP TO THIS
POINT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH MORE DANGEROUS DAY CONCERNING
FIRE CONDITIONS. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LINK UP WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT PER STEEP LAPSE RATES DURING MAX
HEATING. THUS WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY WEST RIVER. EAST SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER CRITERIA. HOWEVER THE WIND IN COMBINATION WITH
VERY LOW RH...DRY FUELS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED
ALONG WITH MY NEIGHBORS TO UPGRADE WATCH TO WARNING.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THEY ARE BASICALLY NON EXISTENT. MID
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY MIGHT SUPPORT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BUT THATS
ABOUT IT. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL TURN A LITTLE COOLER ON
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LONG WAVE PATTERN DOMINATED BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROF AND A WEAK
RIDGE TO THE WEST...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MID LEVEL LIFT THOUGH LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH A 20C SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION...AND CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 8 AND 10KFT. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. MIXED DOWN WINDS
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25KTS. RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK WESTERN CONUS TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES COULD EJECT OUT OVER THE
REGION AND BRING US A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD AS WARMER AIR IS SUPPRESSED
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ267>271.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267-
     268.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CDT /5 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ003-015-033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY







000
FXUS63 KABR 312005
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WX CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT RANGE. WILL
LET TODAYS WARNING RIDE DESPITE VERY MARGINAL WINDS UP TO THIS
POINT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH MORE DANGEROUS DAY CONCERNING
FIRE CONDITIONS. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LINK UP WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT PER STEEP LAPSE RATES DURING MAX
HEATING. THUS WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY WEST RIVER. EAST SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER CRITERIA. HOWEVER THE WIND IN COMBINATION WITH
VERY LOW RH...DRY FUELS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED
ALONG WITH MY NEIGHBORS TO UPGRADE WATCH TO WARNING.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THEY ARE BASICALLY NON EXISTENT. MID
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY MIGHT SUPPORT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BUT THATS
ABOUT IT. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL TURN A LITTLE COOLER ON
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LONG WAVE PATTERN DOMINATED BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROF AND A WEAK
RIDGE TO THE WEST...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MID LEVEL LIFT THOUGH LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH A 20C SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION...AND CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 8 AND 10KFT. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. MIXED DOWN WINDS
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25KTS. RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK WESTERN CONUS TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES COULD EJECT OUT OVER THE
REGION AND BRING US A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD AS WARMER AIR IS SUPPRESSED
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ267>271.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267-
     268.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CDT /5 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ003-015-033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY






000
FXUS63 KFSD 311802
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
102 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

NOT A LOT GOING ON IN THE NEAR TERM...AS WE SEEM TO BE IN BETWEEN
DAYS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND WITH PRECIPITATION NOT A THREAT
YET. TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...EASTWARD TO
ALONG THE I 29 CORRIDOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES BY LATE
TODAY...AND NUDGE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL INCREASE TODAY...
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY SORT OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES IN OUR
WESTERN ZONES. IT WILL BE DRY HOWEVER...AND MOST DEW POINT VALUES
ARE AGAIN TO HIGH. THEREFORE USED THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION OFF OF
THE NAM FOR DEW POINT VALUES. FOR HIGHS...WARMED UP READINGS
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN 900-850MB TEMPERATURES...WITH
WIDESPREAD UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED. BIAS CORRECTED VALUES
WERE IN THE BALL PARK...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ECMWF.

TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER EVENING...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. IN
ADDITION...ALL OF THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE SHOWING 25 TO 40 KNOTS AT
925MB FROM 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE WARMEST GUIDANCE VALUES ARE
CERTAINLY PRUDENT UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ACCAS DEVELOPMENT...THEREFORE LEFT
CONDITIONS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEDNESDAY IS A DAY FULL OF WEATHER CONCERNS...FROM MORNING WIND...
TO FIRE WEATHER...TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATER IN THE DAY. AS
VERY STRONG WAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...LOW LEVEL JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. INVERSION AND CROSS RIDGE
COMPONENT SUGGESTS THAT GUSTS MAY BE ENHANCED ALONG THE DOWNSTREAM
OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE...WHERE COULD SEE SOME 45 TO 50 MPH GUSTS
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE MIXING AND EASTWARD SHIFT OF WIND MAXIMUM
ALOFT STARTS A DECREASING TREND. NORMAL SYNOPTIC GRADIENT STRONG
ENOUGH ON ITS OWN TO SUPPORT A GUSTY 25 TO 35 MPH FLOW.

DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE
MORNING...MARKED BY 700-500 HPA LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 9.5 C/KM. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE EARLY ON SHOULD MEAN LACK OF ACCAS...OR AT LEAST
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. PERHAPS BY LATER MORNING WILL GET ENOUGH
MOISTURE ALOFT AND LEADING LIFT TO START TO SEE A BIT BETTER CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AXIS THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CWA TO WARRANT AN
ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT. WILL START TO GET MORE INTERESTING AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING
BENEATH THIS PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING AT LEAST THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THESE REMAIN CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WILL BE WORKED ON BY
BOTH THE LIFT FROM DEEPER LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING...AND COOLING OF
THE AIRMASS ALOFT THROUGH DIABATIC PROCESSES. INEVITABLY...APPEARS
THAT WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAP NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY FOR RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A SLAYTON TO VERMILLION LINE.
SHEAR IS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT LOOKING A BIT DEEPER NOW...
SUGGESTIVE OF EARLY DISCRETE AND QUICKLY BECOMING LINEAR STRUCTURES.
WITH CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG...DECENT ENOUGH UPDRAFTS TO SUGGEST A
LOWER END SEVERE THREAT WITH HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR AND WIND TO 65 MPH
FOR STRONGER STORMS SOUTHEAST OF A WINDOM TO VERMILLION LINE. STORMS
SHOULD MAINTAIN SEVERE THREAT TO AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...
WHICH WILL NOT BE TOO FAR FROM WHEN BEST OF COVERAGE WOULD BE
LEAVING THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

BEHIND FRONT IN THE WEST LATE MORNING...AND SPREADING THROUGH MOST
OF SE SD BY LATE AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CRASH FAIRLY
QUICKLY WITH INCREASING MIXING ON NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH FIRE DANGER
LIKEWISE ENHANCING.

THURSDAY WILL BE A CLASSIC MIXING DAY SOUTH OF UPPER WAVE PASSING
NORTH OF THE CWA. COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASING LATER IN DAY WILL
ONLY AID IN DEEPER MIXING...WITH WINDS 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND VERY LOW
HUMIDITY. TEMPS WITH MIXING WOULD FAVOR UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S
FAR SOUTHEAST.  FRIDAY A QUITE DAY...ALBEIT COOLER AND DRY...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH...AND HEIGHTS ALREADY BEGIN TO BUILD BACK THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS.

SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND HAVE MOVED MUCH CLOSER TO AN ECMWF
WEIGHTED CONSENSUS...WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS QUICK MOVING WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IMPACT WILL BE FOR WINDS TO BE
DOWN...WHICH WILL BE GOOD FOR LIMITING THE HIGHER END OF FIRE
DANGER. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY STRONG LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT...AND DESPITE INCREASING THE NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE OVER THE INITIALIZATION...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE
THIS MANY DEGREES HIGH IN THE SOUTH IF THE BOUNDARY HANGS UP JUST A
BIT MORE TO THE NORTH. NEVERTHELESS...FLATTENING FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW WARM FRONT TO WOBBLE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH SOME
DIABATIC HEATING DIFFERENCE WITH CLOUDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
SUGGESTING A STRONGER NORTH TO SOUTH DIFFERENCE THAN GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS.

BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAY SEE A PRECIPITATION THREAT
GRADUALLY EVOLVE. HOWEVER...WILL NOT SEE MUCH DEEPER SATURATION
START UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY WHEN NOTABLE SURGE OF SUB 850 HPA
MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD...SO FOR NOW THE ABUNDANCE OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND EASTERLY FLOW APPEARING ON MODELS WOULD SUGGEST
A LOT OF LOWER CLOUDS AROUND...WITH PERHAPS SOME ROGUE ELEVATED
CONVECTION AS WEAK WAVES RIDE PAST...AND GET SOME PERIODS OF
ENHANCED THETA E ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29 AFTER 04Z...INCLUDING KFSD AND KSUX. SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL NEGATE WIND SHEAR MENTION. WINDS
WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...AND LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST SD WEDNESDAY MORNING...REACHING THE I29
CORRIDOR AROUND 18Z. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED...VERY HIGH TO EXTREME...
WEDNESDAY WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS. RED FLAG
POTENTIAL ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH PLUNGING POST
FRONTAL HUMIDITY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. NOT THERE WITH THE
HIGHER HUMIDITY EAST. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONES
255 AND 256 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

DEEP MIXING ON THURSDAY WILL ALSO CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS HUMIDITIES DROP TO A VERY LOW 15 TO 25 PERCENT...AND WINDS
LIKELY TO GUST TO AT LEAST 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE MISSOURI VALLEY FOR FIRE CONCERNS
OVER THE WEEKEND. IF BOUNDARY ENDS UP A BIT MORE NORTHWARD...THIS
WOULD YIELD WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...
WINDS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ANY CRITERIA FOR CRITICAL BEHAVIOR.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ255-256.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KABR 311728
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FORECAST IS IN OK SHAPE...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF CONCERN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. FOR
TODAY...HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR THE WEST RIVER FIRE ZONES. VERY DRY AIR WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL THOUGH...BUT
LEANED TOWARDS ISSUING THE WARNING DUE TO THE FACT THAT FUELS ARE
STILL MOSTLY DEAD ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE HAS BEEN AN UPTICK
IN FIRE ACTIVITY THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR WIND
VALUES ACROSS FAITH/PHILIP AREA ARE A BIT MORE PROMISING THAN
PIERRE SO CURRENT HAZARD PLACEMENT FITS THE SITUATION FOR THE TIME
BEING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE THOUGH ON THE PIERRE FIRE
ZONE 270 IN CASE WINDS START TO GUST AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. WILL SEE SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. RH VALUES WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO TANK DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FOLLOW THE FRONT. COULD
ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW 20 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI...AND FLIRTING WITH 20 PERCENT FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE
JAMES VALLEY.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH
COOLER AIR SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECTING RH VALUES
TO BE A TAD HIGHER. HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH...THEY ARE STILL
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S WHICH WILL MAKE FOR VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER NONETHELESS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MAINLY AFFECTING
THE TEMPERATURES. THE LONG TERM STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH
MAYBE SOME BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL LATE. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
WITH COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW IN BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUS...EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO THE MID 50S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES TO MORE WESTERLY WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. THE ISSUE IS WITH THE GFS
AND EC SURFACE PRESSURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE EC HAS
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND COOLER AIR FLOW WITH COOLER GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THAN THE GFS. THE EC HAS 40S
FOR HIGHS FOR ABERDEEN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS/MEX
GUIDANCE HAS 50S. THUS...MAY HAVE TO LOWER HIGHS SOME FOR THE CWA
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IF THE EC STAYS ON TRACK. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS ALL SHOW A DECENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ONTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME
CHANCES OF RAIN TO OUR REGION. WILL SEE IF THIS MATERIALIZES WITH
RAIN BEING HARD TO COME BY LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ267>271.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267-
     268.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...CONNELLY







000
FXUS63 KABR 311728
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FORECAST IS IN OK SHAPE...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF CONCERN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. FOR
TODAY...HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR THE WEST RIVER FIRE ZONES. VERY DRY AIR WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL THOUGH...BUT
LEANED TOWARDS ISSUING THE WARNING DUE TO THE FACT THAT FUELS ARE
STILL MOSTLY DEAD ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE HAS BEEN AN UPTICK
IN FIRE ACTIVITY THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR WIND
VALUES ACROSS FAITH/PHILIP AREA ARE A BIT MORE PROMISING THAN
PIERRE SO CURRENT HAZARD PLACEMENT FITS THE SITUATION FOR THE TIME
BEING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE THOUGH ON THE PIERRE FIRE
ZONE 270 IN CASE WINDS START TO GUST AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. WILL SEE SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. RH VALUES WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO TANK DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FOLLOW THE FRONT. COULD
ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW 20 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI...AND FLIRTING WITH 20 PERCENT FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE
JAMES VALLEY.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH
COOLER AIR SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECTING RH VALUES
TO BE A TAD HIGHER. HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH...THEY ARE STILL
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S WHICH WILL MAKE FOR VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER NONETHELESS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MAINLY AFFECTING
THE TEMPERATURES. THE LONG TERM STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH
MAYBE SOME BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL LATE. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
WITH COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW IN BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUS...EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO THE MID 50S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES TO MORE WESTERLY WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. THE ISSUE IS WITH THE GFS
AND EC SURFACE PRESSURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE EC HAS
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND COOLER AIR FLOW WITH COOLER GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THAN THE GFS. THE EC HAS 40S
FOR HIGHS FOR ABERDEEN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS/MEX
GUIDANCE HAS 50S. THUS...MAY HAVE TO LOWER HIGHS SOME FOR THE CWA
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IF THE EC STAYS ON TRACK. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS ALL SHOW A DECENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ONTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME
CHANCES OF RAIN TO OUR REGION. WILL SEE IF THIS MATERIALIZES WITH
RAIN BEING HARD TO COME BY LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ267>271.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267-
     268.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...CONNELLY







000
FXUS63 KUNR 311720
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1120 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...WITH TROF ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA/WESTERN WYOMING. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
SURFACE TROF DEEPENING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/EASTERN WYOMING.
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MIXING...900-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. THIS WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS.

RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHEAST
WYOMING/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT...AND THROUGH REST OF
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 6-9MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES...ALONG
WITH 40-50KT 850MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT. LOCATION OF UPPER LOW AND LACK OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BEING A HIGH WIND EVENT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS
10 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. BIGGEST ISSUE WAS
WHAT TO DO WITH FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WINDS LOOK TO STAY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY
FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 10 PERCENT...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE
TO RED FLAG WARNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS TO
AROUND 15 PERCENT. MORE CONFIDENT IN REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY VERSUS TODAY. FOR
SIMPLICITY...WILL RUN RED FLAG WARNING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26
FIRE WEATHER...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 311720
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1120 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...WITH TROF ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA/WESTERN WYOMING. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
SURFACE TROF DEEPENING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/EASTERN WYOMING.
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MIXING...900-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. THIS WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS.

RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHEAST
WYOMING/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT...AND THROUGH REST OF
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 6-9MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES...ALONG
WITH 40-50KT 850MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT. LOCATION OF UPPER LOW AND LACK OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BEING A HIGH WIND EVENT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS
10 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. BIGGEST ISSUE WAS
WHAT TO DO WITH FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WINDS LOOK TO STAY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY
FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 10 PERCENT...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE
TO RED FLAG WARNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS TO
AROUND 15 PERCENT. MORE CONFIDENT IN REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY VERSUS TODAY. FOR
SIMPLICITY...WILL RUN RED FLAG WARNING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26
FIRE WEATHER...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 311720
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1120 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...WITH TROF ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA/WESTERN WYOMING. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
SURFACE TROF DEEPENING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/EASTERN WYOMING.
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MIXING...900-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. THIS WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS.

RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHEAST
WYOMING/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT...AND THROUGH REST OF
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 6-9MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES...ALONG
WITH 40-50KT 850MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT. LOCATION OF UPPER LOW AND LACK OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BEING A HIGH WIND EVENT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS
10 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. BIGGEST ISSUE WAS
WHAT TO DO WITH FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WINDS LOOK TO STAY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY
FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 10 PERCENT...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE
TO RED FLAG WARNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS TO
AROUND 15 PERCENT. MORE CONFIDENT IN REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY VERSUS TODAY. FOR
SIMPLICITY...WILL RUN RED FLAG WARNING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26
FIRE WEATHER...7






000
FXUS63 KABR 311517 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1017 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FORECAST IS IN OK SHAPE...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF CONCERN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. FOR
TODAY...HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR THE WEST RIVER FIRE ZONES. VERY DRY AIR WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL THOUGH...BUT
LEANED TOWARDS ISSUING THE WARNING DUE TO THE FACT THAT FUELS ARE
STILL MOSTLY DEAD ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE HAS BEEN AN UPTICK
IN FIRE ACTIVITY THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR WIND
VALUES ACROSS FAITH/PHILIP AREA ARE A BIT MORE PROMISING THAN
PIERRE SO CURRENT HAZARD PLACEMENT FITS THE SITUATION FOR THE TIME
BEING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE THOUGH ON THE PIERRE FIRE
ZONE 270 IN CASE WINDS START TO GUST AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. WILL SEE SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. RH VALUES WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO TANK DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FOLLOW THE FRONT. COULD
ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW 20 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI...AND FLIRTING WITH 20 PERCENT FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE
JAMES VALLEY.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH
COOLER AIR SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECTING RH VALUES
TO BE A TAD HIGHER. HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH...THEY ARE STILL
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S WHICH WILL MAKE FOR VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER NONETHELESS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MAINLY AFFECTING
THE TEMPERATURES. THE LONG TERM STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH
MAYBE SOME BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL LATE. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
WITH COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW IN BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUS...EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO THE MID 50S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES TO MORE WESTERLY WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. THE ISSUE IS WITH THE GFS
AND EC SURFACE PRESSURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE EC HAS
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND COOLER AIR FLOW WITH COOLER GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THAN THE GFS. THE EC HAS 40S
FOR HIGHS FOR ABERDEEN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS/MEX
GUIDANCE HAS 50S. THUS...MAY HAVE TO LOWER HIGHS SOME FOR THE CWA
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IF THE EC STAYS ON TRACK. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS ALL SHOW A DECENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ONTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME
CHANCES OF RAIN TO OUR REGION. WILL SEE IF THIS MATERIALIZES WITH
RAIN BEING HARD TO COME BY LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ267>271.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267-
     268.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR








000
FXUS63 KABR 311517 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1017 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FORECAST IS IN OK SHAPE...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF CONCERN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. FOR
TODAY...HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR THE WEST RIVER FIRE ZONES. VERY DRY AIR WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL THOUGH...BUT
LEANED TOWARDS ISSUING THE WARNING DUE TO THE FACT THAT FUELS ARE
STILL MOSTLY DEAD ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE HAS BEEN AN UPTICK
IN FIRE ACTIVITY THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR WIND
VALUES ACROSS FAITH/PHILIP AREA ARE A BIT MORE PROMISING THAN
PIERRE SO CURRENT HAZARD PLACEMENT FITS THE SITUATION FOR THE TIME
BEING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE THOUGH ON THE PIERRE FIRE
ZONE 270 IN CASE WINDS START TO GUST AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. WILL SEE SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. RH VALUES WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO TANK DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FOLLOW THE FRONT. COULD
ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW 20 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI...AND FLIRTING WITH 20 PERCENT FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE
JAMES VALLEY.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH
COOLER AIR SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECTING RH VALUES
TO BE A TAD HIGHER. HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH...THEY ARE STILL
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S WHICH WILL MAKE FOR VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER NONETHELESS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MAINLY AFFECTING
THE TEMPERATURES. THE LONG TERM STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH
MAYBE SOME BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL LATE. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
WITH COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW IN BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUS...EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO THE MID 50S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES TO MORE WESTERLY WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. THE ISSUE IS WITH THE GFS
AND EC SURFACE PRESSURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE EC HAS
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND COOLER AIR FLOW WITH COOLER GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THAN THE GFS. THE EC HAS 40S
FOR HIGHS FOR ABERDEEN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS/MEX
GUIDANCE HAS 50S. THUS...MAY HAVE TO LOWER HIGHS SOME FOR THE CWA
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IF THE EC STAYS ON TRACK. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS ALL SHOW A DECENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ONTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME
CHANCES OF RAIN TO OUR REGION. WILL SEE IF THIS MATERIALIZES WITH
RAIN BEING HARD TO COME BY LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ267>271.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267-
     268.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 311145 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
645 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF CONCERN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. FOR
TODAY...HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR THE WEST RIVER FIRE ZONES. VERY DRY AIR WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL THOUGH...BUT
LEANED TOWARDS ISSUING THE WARNING DUE TO THE FACT THAT FUELS ARE
STILL MOSTLY DEAD ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE HAS BEEN AN UPTICK
IN FIRE ACTIVITY THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR WIND
VALUES ACROSS FAITH/PHILIP AREA ARE A BIT MORE PROMISING THAN
PIERRE SO CURRENT HAZARD PLACEMENT FITS THE SITUATION FOR THE TIME
BEING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE THOUGH ON THE PIERRE FIRE
ZONE 270 IN CASE WINDS START TO GUST AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. WILL SEE SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. RH VALUES WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO TANK DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FOLLOW THE FRONT. COULD
ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW 20 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI...AND FLIRTING WITH 20 PERCENT FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE
JAMES VALLEY.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH
COOLER AIR SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECTING RH VALUES
TO BE A TAD HIGHER. HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH...THEY ARE STILL
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S WHICH WILL MAKE FOR VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER NONETHELESS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MAINLY AFFECTING
THE TEMPERATURES. THE LONG TERM STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH
MAYBE SOME BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL LATE. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
WITH COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW IN BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUS...EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO THE MID 50S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES TO MORE WESTERLY WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. THE ISSUE IS WITH THE GFS
AND EC SURFACE PRESSURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE EC HAS
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND COOLER AIR FLOW WITH COOLER GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THAN THE GFS. THE EC HAS 40S
FOR HIGHS FOR ABERDEEN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS/MEX
GUIDANCE HAS 50S. THUS...MAY HAVE TO LOWER HIGHS SOME FOR THE CWA
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IF THE EC STAYS ON TRACK. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS ALL SHOW A DECENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ONTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME
CHANCES OF RAIN TO OUR REGION. WILL SEE IF THIS MATERIALIZES WITH
RAIN BEING HARD TO COME BY LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ267>271.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267-268.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KABR 311145 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
645 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF CONCERN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. FOR
TODAY...HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR THE WEST RIVER FIRE ZONES. VERY DRY AIR WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL THOUGH...BUT
LEANED TOWARDS ISSUING THE WARNING DUE TO THE FACT THAT FUELS ARE
STILL MOSTLY DEAD ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE HAS BEEN AN UPTICK
IN FIRE ACTIVITY THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR WIND
VALUES ACROSS FAITH/PHILIP AREA ARE A BIT MORE PROMISING THAN
PIERRE SO CURRENT HAZARD PLACEMENT FITS THE SITUATION FOR THE TIME
BEING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE THOUGH ON THE PIERRE FIRE
ZONE 270 IN CASE WINDS START TO GUST AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. WILL SEE SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. RH VALUES WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO TANK DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FOLLOW THE FRONT. COULD
ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW 20 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI...AND FLIRTING WITH 20 PERCENT FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE
JAMES VALLEY.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH
COOLER AIR SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECTING RH VALUES
TO BE A TAD HIGHER. HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH...THEY ARE STILL
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S WHICH WILL MAKE FOR VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER NONETHELESS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MAINLY AFFECTING
THE TEMPERATURES. THE LONG TERM STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH
MAYBE SOME BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL LATE. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
WITH COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW IN BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUS...EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO THE MID 50S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES TO MORE WESTERLY WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. THE ISSUE IS WITH THE GFS
AND EC SURFACE PRESSURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE EC HAS
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND COOLER AIR FLOW WITH COOLER GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THAN THE GFS. THE EC HAS 40S
FOR HIGHS FOR ABERDEEN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS/MEX
GUIDANCE HAS 50S. THUS...MAY HAVE TO LOWER HIGHS SOME FOR THE CWA
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IF THE EC STAYS ON TRACK. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS ALL SHOW A DECENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ONTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME
CHANCES OF RAIN TO OUR REGION. WILL SEE IF THIS MATERIALIZES WITH
RAIN BEING HARD TO COME BY LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ267>271.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267-268.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 311145 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
645 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF CONCERN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. FOR
TODAY...HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR THE WEST RIVER FIRE ZONES. VERY DRY AIR WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL THOUGH...BUT
LEANED TOWARDS ISSUING THE WARNING DUE TO THE FACT THAT FUELS ARE
STILL MOSTLY DEAD ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE HAS BEEN AN UPTICK
IN FIRE ACTIVITY THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR WIND
VALUES ACROSS FAITH/PHILIP AREA ARE A BIT MORE PROMISING THAN
PIERRE SO CURRENT HAZARD PLACEMENT FITS THE SITUATION FOR THE TIME
BEING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE THOUGH ON THE PIERRE FIRE
ZONE 270 IN CASE WINDS START TO GUST AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. WILL SEE SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. RH VALUES WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO TANK DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FOLLOW THE FRONT. COULD
ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW 20 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI...AND FLIRTING WITH 20 PERCENT FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE
JAMES VALLEY.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH
COOLER AIR SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECTING RH VALUES
TO BE A TAD HIGHER. HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH...THEY ARE STILL
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S WHICH WILL MAKE FOR VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER NONETHELESS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MAINLY AFFECTING
THE TEMPERATURES. THE LONG TERM STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH
MAYBE SOME BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL LATE. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
WITH COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW IN BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUS...EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO THE MID 50S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES TO MORE WESTERLY WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. THE ISSUE IS WITH THE GFS
AND EC SURFACE PRESSURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE EC HAS
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND COOLER AIR FLOW WITH COOLER GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THAN THE GFS. THE EC HAS 40S
FOR HIGHS FOR ABERDEEN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS/MEX
GUIDANCE HAS 50S. THUS...MAY HAVE TO LOWER HIGHS SOME FOR THE CWA
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IF THE EC STAYS ON TRACK. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS ALL SHOW A DECENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ONTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME
CHANCES OF RAIN TO OUR REGION. WILL SEE IF THIS MATERIALIZES WITH
RAIN BEING HARD TO COME BY LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ267>271.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267-268.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 311145 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
645 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF CONCERN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. FOR
TODAY...HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR THE WEST RIVER FIRE ZONES. VERY DRY AIR WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL THOUGH...BUT
LEANED TOWARDS ISSUING THE WARNING DUE TO THE FACT THAT FUELS ARE
STILL MOSTLY DEAD ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE HAS BEEN AN UPTICK
IN FIRE ACTIVITY THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR WIND
VALUES ACROSS FAITH/PHILIP AREA ARE A BIT MORE PROMISING THAN
PIERRE SO CURRENT HAZARD PLACEMENT FITS THE SITUATION FOR THE TIME
BEING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE THOUGH ON THE PIERRE FIRE
ZONE 270 IN CASE WINDS START TO GUST AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. WILL SEE SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. RH VALUES WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO TANK DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FOLLOW THE FRONT. COULD
ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW 20 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI...AND FLIRTING WITH 20 PERCENT FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE
JAMES VALLEY.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH
COOLER AIR SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECTING RH VALUES
TO BE A TAD HIGHER. HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH...THEY ARE STILL
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S WHICH WILL MAKE FOR VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER NONETHELESS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MAINLY AFFECTING
THE TEMPERATURES. THE LONG TERM STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH
MAYBE SOME BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL LATE. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
WITH COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW IN BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUS...EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO THE MID 50S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES TO MORE WESTERLY WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. THE ISSUE IS WITH THE GFS
AND EC SURFACE PRESSURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE EC HAS
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND COOLER AIR FLOW WITH COOLER GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THAN THE GFS. THE EC HAS 40S
FOR HIGHS FOR ABERDEEN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS/MEX
GUIDANCE HAS 50S. THUS...MAY HAVE TO LOWER HIGHS SOME FOR THE CWA
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IF THE EC STAYS ON TRACK. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS ALL SHOW A DECENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ONTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME
CHANCES OF RAIN TO OUR REGION. WILL SEE IF THIS MATERIALIZES WITH
RAIN BEING HARD TO COME BY LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ267>271.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267-268.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 311145 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
645 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF CONCERN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. FOR
TODAY...HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR THE WEST RIVER FIRE ZONES. VERY DRY AIR WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL THOUGH...BUT
LEANED TOWARDS ISSUING THE WARNING DUE TO THE FACT THAT FUELS ARE
STILL MOSTLY DEAD ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE HAS BEEN AN UPTICK
IN FIRE ACTIVITY THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR WIND
VALUES ACROSS FAITH/PHILIP AREA ARE A BIT MORE PROMISING THAN
PIERRE SO CURRENT HAZARD PLACEMENT FITS THE SITUATION FOR THE TIME
BEING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE THOUGH ON THE PIERRE FIRE
ZONE 270 IN CASE WINDS START TO GUST AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. WILL SEE SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. RH VALUES WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO TANK DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FOLLOW THE FRONT. COULD
ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW 20 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI...AND FLIRTING WITH 20 PERCENT FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE
JAMES VALLEY.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH
COOLER AIR SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECTING RH VALUES
TO BE A TAD HIGHER. HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH...THEY ARE STILL
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S WHICH WILL MAKE FOR VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER NONETHELESS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MAINLY AFFECTING
THE TEMPERATURES. THE LONG TERM STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH
MAYBE SOME BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL LATE. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
WITH COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW IN BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUS...EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO THE MID 50S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES TO MORE WESTERLY WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. THE ISSUE IS WITH THE GFS
AND EC SURFACE PRESSURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE EC HAS
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND COOLER AIR FLOW WITH COOLER GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THAN THE GFS. THE EC HAS 40S
FOR HIGHS FOR ABERDEEN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS/MEX
GUIDANCE HAS 50S. THUS...MAY HAVE TO LOWER HIGHS SOME FOR THE CWA
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IF THE EC STAYS ON TRACK. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS ALL SHOW A DECENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ONTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME
CHANCES OF RAIN TO OUR REGION. WILL SEE IF THIS MATERIALIZES WITH
RAIN BEING HARD TO COME BY LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ267>271.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267-268.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KFSD 311131
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
631 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

NOT A LOT GOING ON IN THE NEAR TERM...AS WE SEEM TO BE IN BETWEEN
DAYS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND WITH PRECIPITATION NOT A THREAT
YET. TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...EASTWARD TO
ALONG THE I 29 CORRIDOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES BY LATE
TODAY...AND NUDGE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL INCREASE TODAY...
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY SORT OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES IN OUR
WESTERN ZONES. IT WILL BE DRY HOWEVER...AND MOST DEW POINT VALUES
ARE AGAIN TO HIGH. THEREFORE USED THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION OFF OF
THE NAM FOR DEW POINT VALUES. FOR HIGHS...WARMED UP READINGS
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN 900-850MB TEMPERATURES...WITH
WIDESPREAD UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED. BIAS CORRECTED VALUES
WERE IN THE BALL PARK...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ECMWF.

TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER EVENING...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. IN
ADDITION...ALL OF THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE SHOWING 25 TO 40 KNOTS AT
925MB FROM 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE WARMEST GUIDANCE VALUES ARE
CERTAINLY PRUDENT UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ACCAS DEVELOPMENT...THEREFORE LEFT
CONDITIONS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEDNESDAY IS A DAY FULL OF WEATHER CONCERNS...FROM MORNING WIND...
TO FIRE WEATHER...TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATER IN THE DAY. AS
VERY STRONG WAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...LOW LEVEL JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. INVERSION AND CROSS RIDGE
COMPONENT SUGGESTS THAT GUSTS MAY BE ENHANCED ALONG THE DOWNSTREAM
OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE...WHERE COULD SEE SOME 45 TO 50 MPH GUSTS
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE MIXING AND EASTWARD SHIFT OF WIND MAXIMUM
ALOFT STARTS A DECREASING TREND. NORMAL SYNOPTIC GRADIENT STRONG
ENOUGH ON ITS OWN TO SUPPORT A GUSTY 25 TO 35 MPH FLOW.

DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE
MORNING...MARKED BY 700-500 HPA LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 9.5 C/KM. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE EARLY ON SHOULD MEAN LACK OF ACCAS...OR AT LEAST
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. PERHAPS BY LATER MORNING WILL GET ENOUGH
MOISTURE ALOFT AND LEADING LIFT TO START TO SEE A BIT BETTER CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AXIS THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CWA TO WARRANT AN
ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT. WILL START TO GET MORE INTERESTING AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING
BENEATH THIS PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING AT LEAST THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THESE REMAIN CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WILL BE WORKED ON BY
BOTH THE LIFT FROM DEEPER LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING...AND COOLING OF
THE AIRMASS ALOFT THROUGH DIABATIC PROCESSES. INEVITABLY...APPEARS
THAT WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAP NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY FOR RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A SLAYTON TO VERMILLION LINE.
SHEAR IS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT LOOKING A BIT DEEPER NOW...
SUGGESTIVE OF EARLY DISCRETE AND QUICKLY BECOMING LINEAR STRUCTURES.
WITH CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG...DECENT ENOUGH UPDRAFTS TO SUGGEST A
LOWER END SEVERE THREAT WITH HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR AND WIND TO 65 MPH
FOR STRONGER STORMS SOUTHEAST OF A WINDOM TO VERMILLION LINE. STORMS
SHOULD MAINTAIN SEVERE THREAT TO AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...
WHICH WILL NOT BE TOO FAR FROM WHEN BEST OF COVERAGE WOULD BE
LEAVING THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

BEHIND FRONT IN THE WEST LATE MORNING...AND SPREADING THROUGH MOST
OF SE SD BY LATE AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CRASH FAIRLY
QUICKLY WITH INCREASING MIXING ON NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH FIRE DANGER
LIKEWISE ENHANCING.

THURSDAY WILL BE A CLASSIC MIXING DAY SOUTH OF UPPER WAVE PASSING
NORTH OF THE CWA. COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASING LATER IN DAY WILL
ONLY AID IN DEEPER MIXING...WITH WINDS 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND VERY LOW
HUMIDITY. TEMPS WITH MIXING WOULD FAVOR UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S
FAR SOUTHEAST.  FRIDAY A QUITE DAY...ALBEIT COOLER AND DRY...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH...AND HEIGHTS ALREADY BEGIN TO BUILD BACK THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS.

SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND HAVE MOVED MUCH CLOSER TO AN ECMWF
WEIGHTED CONSENSUS...WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS QUICK MOVING WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IMPACT WILL BE FOR WINDS TO BE
DOWN...WHICH WILL BE GOOD FOR LIMITING THE HIGHER END OF FIRE
DANGER. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY STRONG LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT...AND DESPITE INCREASING THE NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE OVER THE INITIALIZATION...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE
THIS MANY DEGREES HIGH IN THE SOUTH IF THE BOUNDARY HANGS UP JUST A
BIT MORE TO THE NORTH. NEVERTHELESS...FLATTENING FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW WARM FRONT TO WOBBLE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH SOME
DIABATIC HEATING DIFFERENCE WITH CLOUDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
SUGGESTING A STRONGER NORTH TO SOUTH DIFFERENCE THAN GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS.

BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAY SEE A PRECIPITATION THREAT
GRADUALLY EVOLVE. HOWEVER...WILL NOT SEE MUCH DEEPER SATURATION
START UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY WHEN NOTABLE SURGE OF SUB 850 HPA
MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD...SO FOR NOW THE ABUNDANCE OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND EASTERLY FLOW APPEARING ON MODELS WOULD SUGGEST
A LOT OF LOWER CLOUDS AROUND...WITH PERHAPS SOME ROGUE ELEVATED
CONVECTION AS WEAK WAVES RIDE PAST...AND GET SOME PERIODS OF
ENHANCED THETA E ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONE THING TO WATCH
FOR IS NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
AT THE KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. REASON IS A VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP JUST OFF THE SURFACE FROM THE
SOUTH...COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AT
THESE TWO LOCATIONS. LATE TONIGHT WHEN A TIGHTER SURFACE GRADIENT
MOVES TOWARD INTESTATE 29...STRONGER SURFACE WINDS WILL ENSUE
HELPING TO BALANCE OUT THE WIND SHEAR BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 1000
FEET AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED...VERY HIGH TO EXTREME...
WEDNESDAY WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS. RED FLAG
POTENTIAL ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH PLUNGING POST
FRONTAL HUMIDITY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. NOT THERE WITH THE
HIGHER HUMIDITY EAST. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONES
255 AND 256 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

DEEP MIXING ON THURSDAY WILL ALSO CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS HUMIDITIES DROP TO A VERY LOW 15 TO 25 PERCENT...AND WINDS
LIKELY TO GUST TO AT LEAST 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE MISSOURI VALLEY FOR FIRE CONCERNS
OVER THE WEEKEND. IF BOUNDARY ENDS UP A BIT MORE NORTHWARD...THIS
WOULD YIELD WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...
WINDS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ANY CRITERIA FOR CRITICAL BEHAVIOR.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ255-256.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 311131
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
631 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

NOT A LOT GOING ON IN THE NEAR TERM...AS WE SEEM TO BE IN BETWEEN
DAYS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND WITH PRECIPITATION NOT A THREAT
YET. TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...EASTWARD TO
ALONG THE I 29 CORRIDOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES BY LATE
TODAY...AND NUDGE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL INCREASE TODAY...
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY SORT OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES IN OUR
WESTERN ZONES. IT WILL BE DRY HOWEVER...AND MOST DEW POINT VALUES
ARE AGAIN TO HIGH. THEREFORE USED THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION OFF OF
THE NAM FOR DEW POINT VALUES. FOR HIGHS...WARMED UP READINGS
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN 900-850MB TEMPERATURES...WITH
WIDESPREAD UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED. BIAS CORRECTED VALUES
WERE IN THE BALL PARK...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ECMWF.

TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER EVENING...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. IN
ADDITION...ALL OF THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE SHOWING 25 TO 40 KNOTS AT
925MB FROM 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE WARMEST GUIDANCE VALUES ARE
CERTAINLY PRUDENT UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ACCAS DEVELOPMENT...THEREFORE LEFT
CONDITIONS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEDNESDAY IS A DAY FULL OF WEATHER CONCERNS...FROM MORNING WIND...
TO FIRE WEATHER...TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATER IN THE DAY. AS
VERY STRONG WAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...LOW LEVEL JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. INVERSION AND CROSS RIDGE
COMPONENT SUGGESTS THAT GUSTS MAY BE ENHANCED ALONG THE DOWNSTREAM
OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE...WHERE COULD SEE SOME 45 TO 50 MPH GUSTS
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE MIXING AND EASTWARD SHIFT OF WIND MAXIMUM
ALOFT STARTS A DECREASING TREND. NORMAL SYNOPTIC GRADIENT STRONG
ENOUGH ON ITS OWN TO SUPPORT A GUSTY 25 TO 35 MPH FLOW.

DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE
MORNING...MARKED BY 700-500 HPA LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 9.5 C/KM. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE EARLY ON SHOULD MEAN LACK OF ACCAS...OR AT LEAST
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. PERHAPS BY LATER MORNING WILL GET ENOUGH
MOISTURE ALOFT AND LEADING LIFT TO START TO SEE A BIT BETTER CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AXIS THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CWA TO WARRANT AN
ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT. WILL START TO GET MORE INTERESTING AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING
BENEATH THIS PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING AT LEAST THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THESE REMAIN CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WILL BE WORKED ON BY
BOTH THE LIFT FROM DEEPER LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING...AND COOLING OF
THE AIRMASS ALOFT THROUGH DIABATIC PROCESSES. INEVITABLY...APPEARS
THAT WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAP NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY FOR RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A SLAYTON TO VERMILLION LINE.
SHEAR IS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT LOOKING A BIT DEEPER NOW...
SUGGESTIVE OF EARLY DISCRETE AND QUICKLY BECOMING LINEAR STRUCTURES.
WITH CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG...DECENT ENOUGH UPDRAFTS TO SUGGEST A
LOWER END SEVERE THREAT WITH HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR AND WIND TO 65 MPH
FOR STRONGER STORMS SOUTHEAST OF A WINDOM TO VERMILLION LINE. STORMS
SHOULD MAINTAIN SEVERE THREAT TO AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...
WHICH WILL NOT BE TOO FAR FROM WHEN BEST OF COVERAGE WOULD BE
LEAVING THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

BEHIND FRONT IN THE WEST LATE MORNING...AND SPREADING THROUGH MOST
OF SE SD BY LATE AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CRASH FAIRLY
QUICKLY WITH INCREASING MIXING ON NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH FIRE DANGER
LIKEWISE ENHANCING.

THURSDAY WILL BE A CLASSIC MIXING DAY SOUTH OF UPPER WAVE PASSING
NORTH OF THE CWA. COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASING LATER IN DAY WILL
ONLY AID IN DEEPER MIXING...WITH WINDS 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND VERY LOW
HUMIDITY. TEMPS WITH MIXING WOULD FAVOR UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S
FAR SOUTHEAST.  FRIDAY A QUITE DAY...ALBEIT COOLER AND DRY...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH...AND HEIGHTS ALREADY BEGIN TO BUILD BACK THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS.

SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND HAVE MOVED MUCH CLOSER TO AN ECMWF
WEIGHTED CONSENSUS...WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS QUICK MOVING WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IMPACT WILL BE FOR WINDS TO BE
DOWN...WHICH WILL BE GOOD FOR LIMITING THE HIGHER END OF FIRE
DANGER. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY STRONG LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT...AND DESPITE INCREASING THE NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE OVER THE INITIALIZATION...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE
THIS MANY DEGREES HIGH IN THE SOUTH IF THE BOUNDARY HANGS UP JUST A
BIT MORE TO THE NORTH. NEVERTHELESS...FLATTENING FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW WARM FRONT TO WOBBLE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH SOME
DIABATIC HEATING DIFFERENCE WITH CLOUDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
SUGGESTING A STRONGER NORTH TO SOUTH DIFFERENCE THAN GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS.

BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAY SEE A PRECIPITATION THREAT
GRADUALLY EVOLVE. HOWEVER...WILL NOT SEE MUCH DEEPER SATURATION
START UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY WHEN NOTABLE SURGE OF SUB 850 HPA
MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD...SO FOR NOW THE ABUNDANCE OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND EASTERLY FLOW APPEARING ON MODELS WOULD SUGGEST
A LOT OF LOWER CLOUDS AROUND...WITH PERHAPS SOME ROGUE ELEVATED
CONVECTION AS WEAK WAVES RIDE PAST...AND GET SOME PERIODS OF
ENHANCED THETA E ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONE THING TO WATCH
FOR IS NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
AT THE KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. REASON IS A VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP JUST OFF THE SURFACE FROM THE
SOUTH...COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AT
THESE TWO LOCATIONS. LATE TONIGHT WHEN A TIGHTER SURFACE GRADIENT
MOVES TOWARD INTESTATE 29...STRONGER SURFACE WINDS WILL ENSUE
HELPING TO BALANCE OUT THE WIND SHEAR BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 1000
FEET AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED...VERY HIGH TO EXTREME...
WEDNESDAY WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS. RED FLAG
POTENTIAL ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH PLUNGING POST
FRONTAL HUMIDITY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. NOT THERE WITH THE
HIGHER HUMIDITY EAST. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONES
255 AND 256 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

DEEP MIXING ON THURSDAY WILL ALSO CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS HUMIDITIES DROP TO A VERY LOW 15 TO 25 PERCENT...AND WINDS
LIKELY TO GUST TO AT LEAST 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE MISSOURI VALLEY FOR FIRE CONCERNS
OVER THE WEEKEND. IF BOUNDARY ENDS UP A BIT MORE NORTHWARD...THIS
WOULD YIELD WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...
WINDS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ANY CRITERIA FOR CRITICAL BEHAVIOR.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ255-256.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN



000
FXUS63 KUNR 311122
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
522 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...WITH TROF ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA/WESTERN WYOMING. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
SURFACE TROF DEEPENING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/EASTERN WYOMING.
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MIXING...900-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. THIS WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS.

RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHEAST
WYOMING/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT...AND THROUGH REST OF
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 6-9MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES...ALONG
WITH 40-50KT 850MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT. LOCATION OF UPPER LOW AND LACK OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BEING A HIGH WIND EVENT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY SW
WINDS ON THE WY PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS
10 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. BIGGEST ISSUE WAS
WHAT TO DO WITH FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WINDS LOOK TO STAY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY
FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 10 PERCENT...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE
TO RED FLAG WARNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. MORE CONFIDENT IN REACHING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY VERSUS TODAY. FOR
SIMPLICITY...WILL RUN RED FLAG WARNING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     SDZ260>266.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 311122
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
522 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...WITH TROF ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA/WESTERN WYOMING. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
SURFACE TROF DEEPENING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/EASTERN WYOMING.
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MIXING...900-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. THIS WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS.

RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHEAST
WYOMING/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT...AND THROUGH REST OF
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 6-9MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES...ALONG
WITH 40-50KT 850MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT. LOCATION OF UPPER LOW AND LACK OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BEING A HIGH WIND EVENT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY SW
WINDS ON THE WY PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS
10 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. BIGGEST ISSUE WAS
WHAT TO DO WITH FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WINDS LOOK TO STAY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY
FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 10 PERCENT...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE
TO RED FLAG WARNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. MORE CONFIDENT IN REACHING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY VERSUS TODAY. FOR
SIMPLICITY...WILL RUN RED FLAG WARNING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     SDZ260>266.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 311122
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
522 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...WITH TROF ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA/WESTERN WYOMING. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
SURFACE TROF DEEPENING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/EASTERN WYOMING.
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MIXING...900-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. THIS WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS.

RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHEAST
WYOMING/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT...AND THROUGH REST OF
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 6-9MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES...ALONG
WITH 40-50KT 850MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT. LOCATION OF UPPER LOW AND LACK OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BEING A HIGH WIND EVENT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY SW
WINDS ON THE WY PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS
10 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. BIGGEST ISSUE WAS
WHAT TO DO WITH FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WINDS LOOK TO STAY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY
FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 10 PERCENT...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE
TO RED FLAG WARNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. MORE CONFIDENT IN REACHING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY VERSUS TODAY. FOR
SIMPLICITY...WILL RUN RED FLAG WARNING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     SDZ260>266.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...7






000
FXUS63 KUNR 311122
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
522 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...WITH TROF ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA/WESTERN WYOMING. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
SURFACE TROF DEEPENING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/EASTERN WYOMING.
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MIXING...900-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. THIS WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS.

RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHEAST
WYOMING/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT...AND THROUGH REST OF
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 6-9MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES...ALONG
WITH 40-50KT 850MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT. LOCATION OF UPPER LOW AND LACK OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BEING A HIGH WIND EVENT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY SW
WINDS ON THE WY PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS
10 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. BIGGEST ISSUE WAS
WHAT TO DO WITH FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WINDS LOOK TO STAY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY
FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 10 PERCENT...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE
TO RED FLAG WARNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. MORE CONFIDENT IN REACHING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY VERSUS TODAY. FOR
SIMPLICITY...WILL RUN RED FLAG WARNING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     SDZ260>266.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...7






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