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000
FXUS63 KABR 270859
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
359 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THE REGION CURRENTLY SITS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A
WEAK TROUGH/STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST. THE TROUGH IS FINALLY
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES ARENT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...SO VERY LITTLE QPF IS FORECAST. THE HIGHEST
POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT. SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...HOWEVER
CONDITIONS DRY OUT QUICKLY THEREAFTER. UPPER LEVEL RIDING RETURNS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA MAY DROP INTO THE LOW 30S TONIGHT DUE TO
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT OTHERWISE LOWS LOOK TO
MODERATE IN THE UPPER 30S OR 40S THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED IS PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED THU NIGHT/FRI WITH THE GFS NOW
THE WETTER MODEL WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER TROUGH/SFC FRONT
PRECIP FARTHER NORTH.

CONFIDENCE DOES NOT IMPROVE IN THE SHORTWAVE FLOW THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LITTLE CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN OR BETWEEN MODELS. THE ECMWF
REMAINS THE WETTER MODEL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE INSTABILITY
IS LIKELY GOING TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS/TSTORMS BUT
WHERE AND EXACTLY WHEN IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE






000
FXUS63 KABR 270859
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
359 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THE REGION CURRENTLY SITS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A
WEAK TROUGH/STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST. THE TROUGH IS FINALLY
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES ARENT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...SO VERY LITTLE QPF IS FORECAST. THE HIGHEST
POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT. SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...HOWEVER
CONDITIONS DRY OUT QUICKLY THEREAFTER. UPPER LEVEL RIDING RETURNS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA MAY DROP INTO THE LOW 30S TONIGHT DUE TO
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT OTHERWISE LOWS LOOK TO
MODERATE IN THE UPPER 30S OR 40S THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED IS PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED THU NIGHT/FRI WITH THE GFS NOW
THE WETTER MODEL WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER TROUGH/SFC FRONT
PRECIP FARTHER NORTH.

CONFIDENCE DOES NOT IMPROVE IN THE SHORTWAVE FLOW THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LITTLE CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN OR BETWEEN MODELS. THE ECMWF
REMAINS THE WETTER MODEL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE INSTABILITY
IS LIKELY GOING TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS/TSTORMS BUT
WHERE AND EXACTLY WHEN IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KFSD 270852
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF TODAYS WEATHER IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY. AFTER VERY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
BY MIDDAY AND DID BUMP UP SPEEDS A TAD COMPARED TO GUIDANCE VALUES
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES DUE TO DRY AIR AND GOOD MIXING. SPEAKING OF
WHICH...THE AVERAGED MIXED DEPTH IN OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
REACHES ABOUT 800MB...THEREFORE WARMED READINGS FROM THAT LEVEL
WHICH STILL PRODUCES HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT BEGINS TO EXERT
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER MAINLY IN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT WHERE SATURATION REACHES BETWEEN 750-700MB.
LOWS COULD TANK SOME IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES IN NORTHWEST IA WHERE
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND THE AIR DRY...COUPLED WITH WHAT SHOULD
BE A LACK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THEREFORE PREFERRED THE GUIDANCE
VALUES WHICH HAD 30S IN THE LOW LYING LOCATIONS FOR NORTHWEST IA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE...WITH FAIRLY
LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE AND BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER.  MODELS HAVE BEEN
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
INSTABILITY WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED SPRINKLES WITH THE FROPA.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE
NAM HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN FALLING IN THE
MIDDLE.  REGARDLESS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HAVE LOWERED
FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY BASED ON 850 HPA TEMPS AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE BEING TOO COOL ON HIGHS AS OF
LATE...HAVE SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FRIDAY IS A TOUGH CALL AS A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED THEREFORE
LEADING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.  CUT POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE UNCERTAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW MODEL AGREEMENT.
OVERALL...APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIRTY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS  WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY CREATED
ELEVATED STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...AND HAVE LEFT POPS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KFSD 270852
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF TODAYS WEATHER IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY. AFTER VERY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
BY MIDDAY AND DID BUMP UP SPEEDS A TAD COMPARED TO GUIDANCE VALUES
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES DUE TO DRY AIR AND GOOD MIXING. SPEAKING OF
WHICH...THE AVERAGED MIXED DEPTH IN OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
REACHES ABOUT 800MB...THEREFORE WARMED READINGS FROM THAT LEVEL
WHICH STILL PRODUCES HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT BEGINS TO EXERT
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER MAINLY IN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT WHERE SATURATION REACHES BETWEEN 750-700MB.
LOWS COULD TANK SOME IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES IN NORTHWEST IA WHERE
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND THE AIR DRY...COUPLED WITH WHAT SHOULD
BE A LACK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THEREFORE PREFERRED THE GUIDANCE
VALUES WHICH HAD 30S IN THE LOW LYING LOCATIONS FOR NORTHWEST IA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE...WITH FAIRLY
LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE AND BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER.  MODELS HAVE BEEN
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
INSTABILITY WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED SPRINKLES WITH THE FROPA.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE
NAM HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN FALLING IN THE
MIDDLE.  REGARDLESS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HAVE LOWERED
FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY BASED ON 850 HPA TEMPS AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE BEING TOO COOL ON HIGHS AS OF
LATE...HAVE SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FRIDAY IS A TOUGH CALL AS A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED THEREFORE
LEADING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.  CUT POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE UNCERTAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW MODEL AGREEMENT.
OVERALL...APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIRTY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS  WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY CREATED
ELEVATED STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...AND HAVE LEFT POPS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KFSD 270852
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF TODAYS WEATHER IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY. AFTER VERY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
BY MIDDAY AND DID BUMP UP SPEEDS A TAD COMPARED TO GUIDANCE VALUES
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES DUE TO DRY AIR AND GOOD MIXING. SPEAKING OF
WHICH...THE AVERAGED MIXED DEPTH IN OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
REACHES ABOUT 800MB...THEREFORE WARMED READINGS FROM THAT LEVEL
WHICH STILL PRODUCES HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT BEGINS TO EXERT
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER MAINLY IN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT WHERE SATURATION REACHES BETWEEN 750-700MB.
LOWS COULD TANK SOME IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES IN NORTHWEST IA WHERE
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND THE AIR DRY...COUPLED WITH WHAT SHOULD
BE A LACK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THEREFORE PREFERRED THE GUIDANCE
VALUES WHICH HAD 30S IN THE LOW LYING LOCATIONS FOR NORTHWEST IA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE...WITH FAIRLY
LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE AND BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER.  MODELS HAVE BEEN
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
INSTABILITY WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED SPRINKLES WITH THE FROPA.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE
NAM HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN FALLING IN THE
MIDDLE.  REGARDLESS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HAVE LOWERED
FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY BASED ON 850 HPA TEMPS AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE BEING TOO COOL ON HIGHS AS OF
LATE...HAVE SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FRIDAY IS A TOUGH CALL AS A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED THEREFORE
LEADING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.  CUT POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE UNCERTAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW MODEL AGREEMENT.
OVERALL...APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIRTY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS  WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY CREATED
ELEVATED STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...AND HAVE LEFT POPS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KFSD 270852
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF TODAYS WEATHER IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY. AFTER VERY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
BY MIDDAY AND DID BUMP UP SPEEDS A TAD COMPARED TO GUIDANCE VALUES
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES DUE TO DRY AIR AND GOOD MIXING. SPEAKING OF
WHICH...THE AVERAGED MIXED DEPTH IN OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
REACHES ABOUT 800MB...THEREFORE WARMED READINGS FROM THAT LEVEL
WHICH STILL PRODUCES HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT BEGINS TO EXERT
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER MAINLY IN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT WHERE SATURATION REACHES BETWEEN 750-700MB.
LOWS COULD TANK SOME IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES IN NORTHWEST IA WHERE
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND THE AIR DRY...COUPLED WITH WHAT SHOULD
BE A LACK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THEREFORE PREFERRED THE GUIDANCE
VALUES WHICH HAD 30S IN THE LOW LYING LOCATIONS FOR NORTHWEST IA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE...WITH FAIRLY
LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE AND BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER.  MODELS HAVE BEEN
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
INSTABILITY WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED SPRINKLES WITH THE FROPA.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE
NAM HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN FALLING IN THE
MIDDLE.  REGARDLESS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HAVE LOWERED
FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY BASED ON 850 HPA TEMPS AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE BEING TOO COOL ON HIGHS AS OF
LATE...HAVE SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FRIDAY IS A TOUGH CALL AS A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED THEREFORE
LEADING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.  CUT POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE UNCERTAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW MODEL AGREEMENT.
OVERALL...APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIRTY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS  WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY CREATED
ELEVATED STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...AND HAVE LEFT POPS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KABR 270526 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN QPF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TO CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHWEST WITH SOME CIRRUS ALOFT. THUS...TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH FOR WIND
AS A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MODELS THEN SHOW THE ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM
THE WEST. THE MODELS ALL SHOW VARIOUS DEGREES OF QPF ALONG THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST OF ALL THE
MODELS. THEREFORE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE CWA FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH LIFT...INSTABILITY OR MOISTURE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THUS DONT EXPECT MUCH FOR RAINFALL. THE EC
WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO HOLD ON WITH SOME QPF ACROSS THE FAR EAST ON
TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...LEFT IT DRY. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THE
EC IS CORRECT...MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE FAR EAST
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LIKE THE ECMWF INDICATES...OR JUST A SHIFT IN
WIND DIRECTION AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE SHOWING AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
WHILE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING AND
LOCATION IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE








000
FXUS63 KABR 270526 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN QPF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TO CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHWEST WITH SOME CIRRUS ALOFT. THUS...TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH FOR WIND
AS A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MODELS THEN SHOW THE ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM
THE WEST. THE MODELS ALL SHOW VARIOUS DEGREES OF QPF ALONG THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST OF ALL THE
MODELS. THEREFORE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE CWA FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH LIFT...INSTABILITY OR MOISTURE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THUS DONT EXPECT MUCH FOR RAINFALL. THE EC
WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO HOLD ON WITH SOME QPF ACROSS THE FAR EAST ON
TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...LEFT IT DRY. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THE
EC IS CORRECT...MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE FAR EAST
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LIKE THE ECMWF INDICATES...OR JUST A SHIFT IN
WIND DIRECTION AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE SHOWING AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
WHILE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING AND
LOCATION IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE








000
FXUS63 KABR 270526 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN QPF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TO CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHWEST WITH SOME CIRRUS ALOFT. THUS...TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH FOR WIND
AS A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MODELS THEN SHOW THE ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM
THE WEST. THE MODELS ALL SHOW VARIOUS DEGREES OF QPF ALONG THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST OF ALL THE
MODELS. THEREFORE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE CWA FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH LIFT...INSTABILITY OR MOISTURE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THUS DONT EXPECT MUCH FOR RAINFALL. THE EC
WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO HOLD ON WITH SOME QPF ACROSS THE FAR EAST ON
TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...LEFT IT DRY. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THE
EC IS CORRECT...MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE FAR EAST
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LIKE THE ECMWF INDICATES...OR JUST A SHIFT IN
WIND DIRECTION AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE SHOWING AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
WHILE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING AND
LOCATION IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE








000
FXUS63 KABR 270526 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN QPF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TO CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHWEST WITH SOME CIRRUS ALOFT. THUS...TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH FOR WIND
AS A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MODELS THEN SHOW THE ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM
THE WEST. THE MODELS ALL SHOW VARIOUS DEGREES OF QPF ALONG THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST OF ALL THE
MODELS. THEREFORE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE CWA FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH LIFT...INSTABILITY OR MOISTURE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THUS DONT EXPECT MUCH FOR RAINFALL. THE EC
WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO HOLD ON WITH SOME QPF ACROSS THE FAR EAST ON
TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...LEFT IT DRY. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THE
EC IS CORRECT...MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE FAR EAST
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LIKE THE ECMWF INDICATES...OR JUST A SHIFT IN
WIND DIRECTION AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE SHOWING AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
WHILE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING AND
LOCATION IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE








000
FXUS63 KABR 270526 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN QPF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TO CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHWEST WITH SOME CIRRUS ALOFT. THUS...TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH FOR WIND
AS A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MODELS THEN SHOW THE ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM
THE WEST. THE MODELS ALL SHOW VARIOUS DEGREES OF QPF ALONG THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST OF ALL THE
MODELS. THEREFORE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE CWA FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH LIFT...INSTABILITY OR MOISTURE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THUS DONT EXPECT MUCH FOR RAINFALL. THE EC
WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO HOLD ON WITH SOME QPF ACROSS THE FAR EAST ON
TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...LEFT IT DRY. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THE
EC IS CORRECT...MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE FAR EAST
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LIKE THE ECMWF INDICATES...OR JUST A SHIFT IN
WIND DIRECTION AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE SHOWING AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
WHILE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING AND
LOCATION IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE







  [top]

000
FXUS63 KUNR 270507
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1107 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN SK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
ND INTO NORTHWEST SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
NARROW RIDGING HOLDING ON OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
NM. SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF WESTERN
SD. THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD. KUDX RADAR SHOWS MOSTLY
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS RANGE
FROM AROUND 40 OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE HIGHER BLACK
HILLS TO THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON FEATURES IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING IT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR MOST AREAS.

FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF
THE NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST SD INTO THE BLACK
HILLS AND EASTERN WY. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHEAST MT AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR
NORTHWEST SD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. RAIN COULD
CHANGE OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS...BUT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY IN MANY AREAS...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE SOME SUN CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO
NEAR 70 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. MAIN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND NORTHWEST
SD...AS ENERGY CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WEST OF THE RIDGE. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MT IN THE MORNING AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY PUSH
MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. THE RIDGE
BEGINS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOME
W/SW AS WEAK TROF BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED WARM TEMPS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS...BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTN AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING IN RAIN...AND SOME SNOW.
VFR/MVFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MOST OF THE SD PLAINS EAST OF
THE BLACK HILLS...INCLUDING KRAP. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST MONDAY WITH CONDS TRENDING MVFR THEN VFR ALL PLACES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 270507
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1107 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN SK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
ND INTO NORTHWEST SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
NARROW RIDGING HOLDING ON OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
NM. SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF WESTERN
SD. THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD. KUDX RADAR SHOWS MOSTLY
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS RANGE
FROM AROUND 40 OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE HIGHER BLACK
HILLS TO THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON FEATURES IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING IT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR MOST AREAS.

FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF
THE NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST SD INTO THE BLACK
HILLS AND EASTERN WY. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHEAST MT AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR
NORTHWEST SD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. RAIN COULD
CHANGE OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS...BUT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY IN MANY AREAS...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE SOME SUN CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO
NEAR 70 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. MAIN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND NORTHWEST
SD...AS ENERGY CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WEST OF THE RIDGE. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MT IN THE MORNING AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY PUSH
MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. THE RIDGE
BEGINS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOME
W/SW AS WEAK TROF BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED WARM TEMPS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS...BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTN AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING IN RAIN...AND SOME SNOW.
VFR/MVFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MOST OF THE SD PLAINS EAST OF
THE BLACK HILLS...INCLUDING KRAP. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST MONDAY WITH CONDS TRENDING MVFR THEN VFR ALL PLACES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 270507
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1107 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN SK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
ND INTO NORTHWEST SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
NARROW RIDGING HOLDING ON OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
NM. SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF WESTERN
SD. THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD. KUDX RADAR SHOWS MOSTLY
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS RANGE
FROM AROUND 40 OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE HIGHER BLACK
HILLS TO THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON FEATURES IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING IT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR MOST AREAS.

FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF
THE NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST SD INTO THE BLACK
HILLS AND EASTERN WY. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHEAST MT AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR
NORTHWEST SD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. RAIN COULD
CHANGE OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS...BUT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY IN MANY AREAS...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE SOME SUN CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO
NEAR 70 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. MAIN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND NORTHWEST
SD...AS ENERGY CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WEST OF THE RIDGE. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MT IN THE MORNING AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY PUSH
MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. THE RIDGE
BEGINS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOME
W/SW AS WEAK TROF BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED WARM TEMPS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS...BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTN AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING IN RAIN...AND SOME SNOW.
VFR/MVFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MOST OF THE SD PLAINS EAST OF
THE BLACK HILLS...INCLUDING KRAP. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST MONDAY WITH CONDS TRENDING MVFR THEN VFR ALL PLACES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 270507
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1107 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN SK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
ND INTO NORTHWEST SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
NARROW RIDGING HOLDING ON OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
NM. SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF WESTERN
SD. THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD. KUDX RADAR SHOWS MOSTLY
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS RANGE
FROM AROUND 40 OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE HIGHER BLACK
HILLS TO THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON FEATURES IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING IT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR MOST AREAS.

FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF
THE NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST SD INTO THE BLACK
HILLS AND EASTERN WY. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHEAST MT AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR
NORTHWEST SD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. RAIN COULD
CHANGE OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS...BUT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY IN MANY AREAS...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE SOME SUN CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO
NEAR 70 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. MAIN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND NORTHWEST
SD...AS ENERGY CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WEST OF THE RIDGE. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MT IN THE MORNING AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY PUSH
MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. THE RIDGE
BEGINS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOME
W/SW AS WEAK TROF BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED WARM TEMPS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS...BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTN AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING IN RAIN...AND SOME SNOW.
VFR/MVFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MOST OF THE SD PLAINS EAST OF
THE BLACK HILLS...INCLUDING KRAP. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST MONDAY WITH CONDS TRENDING MVFR THEN VFR ALL PLACES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KFSD 270331
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1031 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING FROM GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE CWA AND STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AIR
AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME TEMPS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DIP TOWARD LOWER TO MID 30S...AND LIKELY TO FIND
A BIT OF PATCHY FROST. UNLIKELY TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE TIME WITH
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.  IF ANYTHING...GRADIENT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS
EVEN WEAKER ON MONDAY...SO EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR SPRINGTIME
STANDARDS...WITH MIXING OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOWEST DEWPOINTS
ALONG AND EAST OF WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND EAST OF A TRACY TO
SIOUX FALLS TO YANKTON. DRY AIR AGAIN SUGGESTS EXPANDING DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND CLIPS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AROUND MIDDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARDS
STALLING THE WAVE ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER AS IT SLOWLY DIPS
SOUTHWARD AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE CUT OFF LOW DRIFTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO BECOMES
STALLED OVER THE AREA BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH
SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED...WITH THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A
FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR HIGHWAY 14 AND ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AGAIN...HEDGED A BIT TOWARDS THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS MID WEEK...BRINGING A
CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
REBOUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY MOISTURE RETURN DURING THIS
PERIOD AND WITH DECENT MIXING POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED SUIT IN TRENDING
LOWER WITH DEWPOINTS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 25 TO 30
PERCENT. WHILE WINDS WINDS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...THEY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME FRAME FOR
POSSIBLE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS
THE MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE HEADING TOWARDS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES...AND
THE RESULTING UPPER FLOW DIFFERS BETWEEN EACH MODEL. AS A
RESULT...THE ALLBLEND POPS WERE A SMATTERING OF LOW POPS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WHICH WERE REMOVED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MUCH GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 270331
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1031 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING FROM GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE CWA AND STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AIR
AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME TEMPS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DIP TOWARD LOWER TO MID 30S...AND LIKELY TO FIND
A BIT OF PATCHY FROST. UNLIKELY TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE TIME WITH
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.  IF ANYTHING...GRADIENT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS
EVEN WEAKER ON MONDAY...SO EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR SPRINGTIME
STANDARDS...WITH MIXING OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOWEST DEWPOINTS
ALONG AND EAST OF WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND EAST OF A TRACY TO
SIOUX FALLS TO YANKTON. DRY AIR AGAIN SUGGESTS EXPANDING DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND CLIPS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AROUND MIDDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARDS
STALLING THE WAVE ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER AS IT SLOWLY DIPS
SOUTHWARD AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE CUT OFF LOW DRIFTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO BECOMES
STALLED OVER THE AREA BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH
SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED...WITH THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A
FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR HIGHWAY 14 AND ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AGAIN...HEDGED A BIT TOWARDS THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS MID WEEK...BRINGING A
CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
REBOUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY MOISTURE RETURN DURING THIS
PERIOD AND WITH DECENT MIXING POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED SUIT IN TRENDING
LOWER WITH DEWPOINTS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 25 TO 30
PERCENT. WHILE WINDS WINDS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...THEY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME FRAME FOR
POSSIBLE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS
THE MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE HEADING TOWARDS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES...AND
THE RESULTING UPPER FLOW DIFFERS BETWEEN EACH MODEL. AS A
RESULT...THE ALLBLEND POPS WERE A SMATTERING OF LOW POPS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WHICH WERE REMOVED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MUCH GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KABR 270235 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
935 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN QPF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TO CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHWEST WITH SOME CIRRUS ALOFT. THUS...TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH FOR WIND
AS A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MODELS THEN SHOW THE ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM
THE WEST. THE MODELS ALL SHOW VARIOUS DEGREES OF QPF ALONG THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST OF ALL THE
MODELS. THEREFORE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE CWA FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH LIFT...INSTABILITY OR MOISTURE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THUS DONT EXPECT MUCH FOR RAINFALL. THE EC
WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO HOLD ON WITH SOME QPF ACROSS THE FAR EAST ON
TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...LEFT IT DRY. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THE
EC IS CORRECT...MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE FAR EAST
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LIKE THE ECMWF INDICATES...OR JUST A SHIFT IN
WIND DIRECTION AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE SHOWING AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
WHILE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING AND
LOCATION IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK









000
FXUS63 KABR 270235 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
935 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN QPF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TO CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHWEST WITH SOME CIRRUS ALOFT. THUS...TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH FOR WIND
AS A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MODELS THEN SHOW THE ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM
THE WEST. THE MODELS ALL SHOW VARIOUS DEGREES OF QPF ALONG THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST OF ALL THE
MODELS. THEREFORE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE CWA FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH LIFT...INSTABILITY OR MOISTURE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THUS DONT EXPECT MUCH FOR RAINFALL. THE EC
WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO HOLD ON WITH SOME QPF ACROSS THE FAR EAST ON
TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...LEFT IT DRY. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THE
EC IS CORRECT...MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE FAR EAST
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LIKE THE ECMWF INDICATES...OR JUST A SHIFT IN
WIND DIRECTION AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE SHOWING AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
WHILE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING AND
LOCATION IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK









000
FXUS63 KABR 270235 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
935 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN QPF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TO CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHWEST WITH SOME CIRRUS ALOFT. THUS...TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH FOR WIND
AS A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MODELS THEN SHOW THE ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM
THE WEST. THE MODELS ALL SHOW VARIOUS DEGREES OF QPF ALONG THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST OF ALL THE
MODELS. THEREFORE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE CWA FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH LIFT...INSTABILITY OR MOISTURE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THUS DONT EXPECT MUCH FOR RAINFALL. THE EC
WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO HOLD ON WITH SOME QPF ACROSS THE FAR EAST ON
TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...LEFT IT DRY. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THE
EC IS CORRECT...MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE FAR EAST
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LIKE THE ECMWF INDICATES...OR JUST A SHIFT IN
WIND DIRECTION AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE SHOWING AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
WHILE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING AND
LOCATION IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK









000
FXUS63 KABR 270235 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
935 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN QPF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TO CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHWEST WITH SOME CIRRUS ALOFT. THUS...TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH FOR WIND
AS A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MODELS THEN SHOW THE ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM
THE WEST. THE MODELS ALL SHOW VARIOUS DEGREES OF QPF ALONG THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST OF ALL THE
MODELS. THEREFORE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE CWA FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH LIFT...INSTABILITY OR MOISTURE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THUS DONT EXPECT MUCH FOR RAINFALL. THE EC
WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO HOLD ON WITH SOME QPF ACROSS THE FAR EAST ON
TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...LEFT IT DRY. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THE
EC IS CORRECT...MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE FAR EAST
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LIKE THE ECMWF INDICATES...OR JUST A SHIFT IN
WIND DIRECTION AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE SHOWING AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
WHILE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING AND
LOCATION IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK









000
FXUS63 KFSD 262328
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
628 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING FROM GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE CWA AND STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AIR
AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME TEMPS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DIP TOWARD LOWER TO MID 30S...AND LIKELY TO FIND
A BIT OF PATCHY FROST. UNLIKELY TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE TIME WITH
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.  IF ANYTHING...GRADIENT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS
EVEN WEAKER ON MONDAY...SO EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR SPRINGTIME
STANDARDS...WITH MIXING OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOWEST DEWPOINTS
ALONG AND EAST OF WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND EAST OF A TRACY TO
SIOUX FALLS TO YANKTON. DRY AIR AGAIN SUGGESTS EXPANDING DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND CLIPS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AROUND MIDDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARDS
STALLING THE WAVE ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER AS IT SLOWLY DIPS
SOUTHWARD AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE CUT OFF LOW DRIFTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO BECOMES
STALLED OVER THE AREA BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH
SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED...WITH THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A
FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR HIGHWAY 14 AND ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AGAIN...HEDGED A BIT TOWARDS THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS MID WEEK...BRINGING A
CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
REBOUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY MOISTURE RETURN DURING THIS
PERIOD AND WITH DECENT MIXING POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED SUIT IN TRENDING
LOWER WITH DEWPOINTS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 25 TO 30
PERCENT. WHILE WINDS WINDS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...THEY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME FRAME FOR
POSSIBLE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS
THE MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE HEADING TOWARDS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES...AND
THE RESULTING UPPER FLOW DIFFERS BETWEEN EACH MODEL. AS A
RESULT...THE ALLBLEND POPS WERE A SMATTERING OF LOW POPS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WHICH WERE REMOVED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MUCH GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO INCREASES EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 262328
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
628 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING FROM GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE CWA AND STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AIR
AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME TEMPS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DIP TOWARD LOWER TO MID 30S...AND LIKELY TO FIND
A BIT OF PATCHY FROST. UNLIKELY TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE TIME WITH
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.  IF ANYTHING...GRADIENT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS
EVEN WEAKER ON MONDAY...SO EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR SPRINGTIME
STANDARDS...WITH MIXING OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOWEST DEWPOINTS
ALONG AND EAST OF WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND EAST OF A TRACY TO
SIOUX FALLS TO YANKTON. DRY AIR AGAIN SUGGESTS EXPANDING DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND CLIPS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AROUND MIDDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARDS
STALLING THE WAVE ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER AS IT SLOWLY DIPS
SOUTHWARD AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE CUT OFF LOW DRIFTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO BECOMES
STALLED OVER THE AREA BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH
SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED...WITH THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A
FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR HIGHWAY 14 AND ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AGAIN...HEDGED A BIT TOWARDS THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS MID WEEK...BRINGING A
CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
REBOUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY MOISTURE RETURN DURING THIS
PERIOD AND WITH DECENT MIXING POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED SUIT IN TRENDING
LOWER WITH DEWPOINTS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 25 TO 30
PERCENT. WHILE WINDS WINDS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...THEY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME FRAME FOR
POSSIBLE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS
THE MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE HEADING TOWARDS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES...AND
THE RESULTING UPPER FLOW DIFFERS BETWEEN EACH MODEL. AS A
RESULT...THE ALLBLEND POPS WERE A SMATTERING OF LOW POPS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WHICH WERE REMOVED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MUCH GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO INCREASES EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KABR 262325 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
625 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN QPF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TO CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHWEST WITH SOME CIRRUS ALOFT. THUS...TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH FOR WIND
AS A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MODELS THEN SHOW THE ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM
THE WEST. THE MODELS ALL SHOW VARIOUS DEGREES OF QPF ALONG THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST OF ALL THE
MODELS. THEREFORE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE CWA FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH LIFT...INSTABILITY OR MOISTURE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THUS DONT EXPECT MUCH FOR RAINFALL. THE EC
WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO HOLD ON WITH SOME QPF ACROSS THE FAR EAST ON
TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...LEFT IT DRY. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THE
EC IS CORRECT...MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE FAR EAST
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LIKE THE ECMWF INDICATES...OR JUST A SHIFT IN
WIND DIRECTION AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE SHOWING AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
WHILE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING AND
LOCATION IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK








000
FXUS63 KABR 262325 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
625 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN QPF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TO CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHWEST WITH SOME CIRRUS ALOFT. THUS...TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH FOR WIND
AS A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MODELS THEN SHOW THE ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM
THE WEST. THE MODELS ALL SHOW VARIOUS DEGREES OF QPF ALONG THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST OF ALL THE
MODELS. THEREFORE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE CWA FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH LIFT...INSTABILITY OR MOISTURE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THUS DONT EXPECT MUCH FOR RAINFALL. THE EC
WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO HOLD ON WITH SOME QPF ACROSS THE FAR EAST ON
TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...LEFT IT DRY. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THE
EC IS CORRECT...MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE FAR EAST
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LIKE THE ECMWF INDICATES...OR JUST A SHIFT IN
WIND DIRECTION AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE SHOWING AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
WHILE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING AND
LOCATION IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK







000
FXUS63 KUNR 262319
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
519 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN SK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
ND INTO NORTHWEST SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
NARROW RIDGING HOLDING ON OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
NM. SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF WESTERN
SD. THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD. KUDX RADAR SHOWS MOSTLY
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS RANGE
FROM AROUND 40 OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE HIGHER BLACK
HILLS TO THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON FEATURES IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING IT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR MOST AREAS.

FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF
THE NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST SD INTO THE BLACK
HILLS AND EASTERN WY. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHEAST MT AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR
NORTHWEST SD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. RAIN COULD
CHANGE OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS...BUT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY IN MANY AREAS...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE SOME SUN CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO
NEAR 70 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. MAIN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND NORTHWEST
SD...AS ENERGY CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WEST OF THE RIDGE. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MT IN THE MORNING AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY PUSH
MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. THE RIDGE
BEGINS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOME
W/SW AS WEAK TROF BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED WARM TEMPS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS...BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTN AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING IN RAIN...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. VFR/MVFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MOST OF
THE SD PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...INCLUDING KRAP. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY WITH CONDS TRENDING MVFR THEN
VFR ALL PLACES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 262319
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
519 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN SK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
ND INTO NORTHWEST SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
NARROW RIDGING HOLDING ON OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
NM. SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF WESTERN
SD. THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD. KUDX RADAR SHOWS MOSTLY
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS RANGE
FROM AROUND 40 OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE HIGHER BLACK
HILLS TO THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON FEATURES IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING IT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR MOST AREAS.

FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF
THE NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST SD INTO THE BLACK
HILLS AND EASTERN WY. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHEAST MT AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR
NORTHWEST SD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. RAIN COULD
CHANGE OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS...BUT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY IN MANY AREAS...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE SOME SUN CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO
NEAR 70 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. MAIN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND NORTHWEST
SD...AS ENERGY CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WEST OF THE RIDGE. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MT IN THE MORNING AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY PUSH
MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. THE RIDGE
BEGINS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOME
W/SW AS WEAK TROF BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED WARM TEMPS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS...BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTN AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING IN RAIN...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. VFR/MVFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MOST OF
THE SD PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...INCLUDING KRAP. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY WITH CONDS TRENDING MVFR THEN
VFR ALL PLACES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 262319
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
519 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN SK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
ND INTO NORTHWEST SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
NARROW RIDGING HOLDING ON OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
NM. SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF WESTERN
SD. THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD. KUDX RADAR SHOWS MOSTLY
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS RANGE
FROM AROUND 40 OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE HIGHER BLACK
HILLS TO THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON FEATURES IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING IT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR MOST AREAS.

FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF
THE NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST SD INTO THE BLACK
HILLS AND EASTERN WY. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHEAST MT AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR
NORTHWEST SD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. RAIN COULD
CHANGE OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS...BUT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY IN MANY AREAS...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE SOME SUN CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO
NEAR 70 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. MAIN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND NORTHWEST
SD...AS ENERGY CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WEST OF THE RIDGE. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MT IN THE MORNING AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY PUSH
MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. THE RIDGE
BEGINS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOME
W/SW AS WEAK TROF BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED WARM TEMPS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS...BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTN AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING IN RAIN...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. VFR/MVFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MOST OF
THE SD PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...INCLUDING KRAP. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY WITH CONDS TRENDING MVFR THEN
VFR ALL PLACES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 262319
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
519 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN SK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
ND INTO NORTHWEST SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
NARROW RIDGING HOLDING ON OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
NM. SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF WESTERN
SD. THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD. KUDX RADAR SHOWS MOSTLY
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS RANGE
FROM AROUND 40 OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE HIGHER BLACK
HILLS TO THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON FEATURES IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING IT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR MOST AREAS.

FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF
THE NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST SD INTO THE BLACK
HILLS AND EASTERN WY. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHEAST MT AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR
NORTHWEST SD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. RAIN COULD
CHANGE OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS...BUT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY IN MANY AREAS...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE SOME SUN CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO
NEAR 70 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. MAIN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND NORTHWEST
SD...AS ENERGY CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WEST OF THE RIDGE. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MT IN THE MORNING AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY PUSH
MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. THE RIDGE
BEGINS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOME
W/SW AS WEAK TROF BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED WARM TEMPS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS...BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTN AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING IN RAIN...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. VFR/MVFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MOST OF
THE SD PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...INCLUDING KRAP. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY WITH CONDS TRENDING MVFR THEN
VFR ALL PLACES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 262110
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
310 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN SK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
ND INTO NORTHWEST SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
NARROW RIDGING HOLDING ON OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
NM. SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF WESTERN
SD. THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD. KUDX RADAR SHOWS MOSTLY
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS RANGE
FROM AROUND 40 OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE HIGHER BLACK
HILLS TO THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON FEATURES IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING IT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR MOST AREAS.

FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF
THE NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST SD INTO THE BLACK
HILLS AND EASTERN WY. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHEAST MT AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR
NORTHWEST SD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. RAIN COULD
CHANGE OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS...BUT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY IN MANY AREAS...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE SOME SUN CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO
NEAR 70 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. MAIN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND NORTHWEST
SD...AS ENERGY CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WEST OF THE RIDGE. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MT IN THE MORNING AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY PUSH
MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. THE RIDGE
BEGINS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOME
W/SW AS WEAK TROF BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED WARM TEMPS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS...BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTN AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

WDSPRD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MUCH OF THE AFTN
ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING
THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN SD TO MVFR. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE IMPROVING ACROSS CNTRL SD TO VFR. WDSPRD -RA WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SNOW POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 262110
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
310 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN SK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
ND INTO NORTHWEST SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
NARROW RIDGING HOLDING ON OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
NM. SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF WESTERN
SD. THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD. KUDX RADAR SHOWS MOSTLY
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS RANGE
FROM AROUND 40 OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE HIGHER BLACK
HILLS TO THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON FEATURES IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING IT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR MOST AREAS.

FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF
THE NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST SD INTO THE BLACK
HILLS AND EASTERN WY. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHEAST MT AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR
NORTHWEST SD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. RAIN COULD
CHANGE OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS...BUT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY IN MANY AREAS...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE SOME SUN CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO
NEAR 70 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. MAIN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND NORTHWEST
SD...AS ENERGY CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WEST OF THE RIDGE. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MT IN THE MORNING AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY PUSH
MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. THE RIDGE
BEGINS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOME
W/SW AS WEAK TROF BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED WARM TEMPS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS...BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTN AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

WDSPRD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MUCH OF THE AFTN
ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING
THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN SD TO MVFR. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE IMPROVING ACROSS CNTRL SD TO VFR. WDSPRD -RA WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SNOW POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KABR 262026
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
326 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN QPF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TO CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHWEST WITH SOME CIRRUS ALOFT. THUS...TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH FOR WIND
AS A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MODELS THEN SHOW THE ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM
THE WEST. THE MODELS ALL SHOW VARIOUS DEGREES OF QPF ALONG THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST OF ALL THE
MODELS. THEREFORE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE CWA FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH LIFT...INSTABILITY OR MOISTURE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THUS DONT EXPECT MUCH FOR RAINFALL. THE EC
WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO HOLD ON WITH SOME QPF ACROSS THE FAR EAST ON
TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...LEFT IT DRY. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THE
EC IS CORRECT...MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE FAR EAST
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LIKE THE ECMWF INDICATES...OR JUST A SHIFT IN
WIND DIRECTION AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE SHOWING AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
WHILE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING AND
LOCATION IS LOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. SKIES MAY CLEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE TERMINALS OF
KMBG AND KPIR. THE CLEAR SKIES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE LOW END VFR CIGS MOVE BACK IN FROM THE WEST.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD







000
FXUS63 KABR 262026
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
326 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN QPF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TO CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHWEST WITH SOME CIRRUS ALOFT. THUS...TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH FOR WIND
AS A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MODELS THEN SHOW THE ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM
THE WEST. THE MODELS ALL SHOW VARIOUS DEGREES OF QPF ALONG THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST OF ALL THE
MODELS. THEREFORE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE CWA FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH LIFT...INSTABILITY OR MOISTURE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THUS DONT EXPECT MUCH FOR RAINFALL. THE EC
WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO HOLD ON WITH SOME QPF ACROSS THE FAR EAST ON
TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...LEFT IT DRY. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THE
EC IS CORRECT...MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE FAR EAST
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LIKE THE ECMWF INDICATES...OR JUST A SHIFT IN
WIND DIRECTION AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE SHOWING AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
WHILE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING AND
LOCATION IS LOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. SKIES MAY CLEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE TERMINALS OF
KMBG AND KPIR. THE CLEAR SKIES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE LOW END VFR CIGS MOVE BACK IN FROM THE WEST.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD






000
FXUS63 KABR 262026
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
326 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN QPF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TO CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHWEST WITH SOME CIRRUS ALOFT. THUS...TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH FOR WIND
AS A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MODELS THEN SHOW THE ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM
THE WEST. THE MODELS ALL SHOW VARIOUS DEGREES OF QPF ALONG THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST OF ALL THE
MODELS. THEREFORE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE CWA FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH LIFT...INSTABILITY OR MOISTURE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THUS DONT EXPECT MUCH FOR RAINFALL. THE EC
WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO HOLD ON WITH SOME QPF ACROSS THE FAR EAST ON
TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...LEFT IT DRY. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THE
EC IS CORRECT...MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE FAR EAST
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LIKE THE ECMWF INDICATES...OR JUST A SHIFT IN
WIND DIRECTION AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE SHOWING AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
WHILE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING AND
LOCATION IS LOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. SKIES MAY CLEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE TERMINALS OF
KMBG AND KPIR. THE CLEAR SKIES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE LOW END VFR CIGS MOVE BACK IN FROM THE WEST.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD







000
FXUS63 KFSD 261949
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING FROM GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE CWA AND STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AIR
AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME TEMPS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DIP TOWARD LOWER TO MID 30S...AND LIKELY TO FIND
A BIT OF PATCHY FROST. UNLIKELY TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE TIME WITH
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.  IF ANYTHING...GRADIENT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS
EVEN WEAKER ON MONDAY...SO EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR SPRINGTIME
STANDARDS...WITH MIXING OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOWEST DEWPOINTS
ALONG AND EAST OF WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND EAST OF A TRACY TO
SIOUX FALLS TO YANKTON. DRY AIR AGAIN SUGGESTS EXPANDING DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND CLIPS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AROUND MIDDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARDS
STALLING THE WAVE ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER AS IT SLOWLY DIPS
SOUTHWARD AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE CUT OFF LOW DRIFTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO BECOMES
STALLED OVER THE AREA BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH
SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED...WITH THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A
FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR HIGHWAY 14 AND ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AGAIN...HEDGED A BIT TOWARDS THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS MID WEEK...BRINGING A
CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
REBOUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY MOISTURE RETURN DURING THIS
PERIOD AND WITH DECENT MIXING POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED SUIT IN TRENDING
LOWER WITH DEWPOINTS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 25 TO 30
PERCENT. WHILE WINDS WINDS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...THEY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME FRAME FOR
POSSIBLE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS
THE MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE HEADING TOWARDS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES...AND
THE RESULTING UPPER FLOW DIFFERS BETWEEN EACH MODEL. AS A
RESULT...THE ALLBLEND POPS WERE A SMATTERING OF LOW POPS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WHICH WERE REMOVED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MUCH GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS
WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 261949
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING FROM GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE CWA AND STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AIR
AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME TEMPS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DIP TOWARD LOWER TO MID 30S...AND LIKELY TO FIND
A BIT OF PATCHY FROST. UNLIKELY TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE TIME WITH
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.  IF ANYTHING...GRADIENT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS
EVEN WEAKER ON MONDAY...SO EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR SPRINGTIME
STANDARDS...WITH MIXING OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOWEST DEWPOINTS
ALONG AND EAST OF WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND EAST OF A TRACY TO
SIOUX FALLS TO YANKTON. DRY AIR AGAIN SUGGESTS EXPANDING DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND CLIPS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AROUND MIDDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARDS
STALLING THE WAVE ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER AS IT SLOWLY DIPS
SOUTHWARD AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE CUT OFF LOW DRIFTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO BECOMES
STALLED OVER THE AREA BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH
SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED...WITH THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A
FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR HIGHWAY 14 AND ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AGAIN...HEDGED A BIT TOWARDS THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS MID WEEK...BRINGING A
CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
REBOUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY MOISTURE RETURN DURING THIS
PERIOD AND WITH DECENT MIXING POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED SUIT IN TRENDING
LOWER WITH DEWPOINTS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 25 TO 30
PERCENT. WHILE WINDS WINDS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...THEY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME FRAME FOR
POSSIBLE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS
THE MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE HEADING TOWARDS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES...AND
THE RESULTING UPPER FLOW DIFFERS BETWEEN EACH MODEL. AS A
RESULT...THE ALLBLEND POPS WERE A SMATTERING OF LOW POPS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WHICH WERE REMOVED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MUCH GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS
WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN



000
FXUS63 KFSD 261949
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING FROM GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE CWA AND STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AIR
AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME TEMPS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DIP TOWARD LOWER TO MID 30S...AND LIKELY TO FIND
A BIT OF PATCHY FROST. UNLIKELY TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE TIME WITH
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.  IF ANYTHING...GRADIENT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS
EVEN WEAKER ON MONDAY...SO EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR SPRINGTIME
STANDARDS...WITH MIXING OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOWEST DEWPOINTS
ALONG AND EAST OF WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND EAST OF A TRACY TO
SIOUX FALLS TO YANKTON. DRY AIR AGAIN SUGGESTS EXPANDING DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND CLIPS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AROUND MIDDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARDS
STALLING THE WAVE ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER AS IT SLOWLY DIPS
SOUTHWARD AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE CUT OFF LOW DRIFTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO BECOMES
STALLED OVER THE AREA BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH
SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED...WITH THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A
FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR HIGHWAY 14 AND ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AGAIN...HEDGED A BIT TOWARDS THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS MID WEEK...BRINGING A
CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
REBOUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY MOISTURE RETURN DURING THIS
PERIOD AND WITH DECENT MIXING POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED SUIT IN TRENDING
LOWER WITH DEWPOINTS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 25 TO 30
PERCENT. WHILE WINDS WINDS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...THEY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME FRAME FOR
POSSIBLE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS
THE MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE HEADING TOWARDS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES...AND
THE RESULTING UPPER FLOW DIFFERS BETWEEN EACH MODEL. AS A
RESULT...THE ALLBLEND POPS WERE A SMATTERING OF LOW POPS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WHICH WERE REMOVED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MUCH GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS
WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN



000
FXUS63 KFSD 261949
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING FROM GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE CWA AND STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AIR
AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME TEMPS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DIP TOWARD LOWER TO MID 30S...AND LIKELY TO FIND
A BIT OF PATCHY FROST. UNLIKELY TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE TIME WITH
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.  IF ANYTHING...GRADIENT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS
EVEN WEAKER ON MONDAY...SO EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR SPRINGTIME
STANDARDS...WITH MIXING OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOWEST DEWPOINTS
ALONG AND EAST OF WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND EAST OF A TRACY TO
SIOUX FALLS TO YANKTON. DRY AIR AGAIN SUGGESTS EXPANDING DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND CLIPS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AROUND MIDDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARDS
STALLING THE WAVE ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER AS IT SLOWLY DIPS
SOUTHWARD AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE CUT OFF LOW DRIFTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO BECOMES
STALLED OVER THE AREA BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH
SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED...WITH THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A
FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR HIGHWAY 14 AND ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AGAIN...HEDGED A BIT TOWARDS THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS MID WEEK...BRINGING A
CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
REBOUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY MOISTURE RETURN DURING THIS
PERIOD AND WITH DECENT MIXING POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED SUIT IN TRENDING
LOWER WITH DEWPOINTS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 25 TO 30
PERCENT. WHILE WINDS WINDS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...THEY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME FRAME FOR
POSSIBLE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS
THE MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE HEADING TOWARDS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES...AND
THE RESULTING UPPER FLOW DIFFERS BETWEEN EACH MODEL. AS A
RESULT...THE ALLBLEND POPS WERE A SMATTERING OF LOW POPS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WHICH WERE REMOVED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MUCH GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS
WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 261737
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1237 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PLEASANT SPRING DAY AHEAD WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...EXPECT DEW
POINTS TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DRY AIR MIXES DOWN FROM
ALOFT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT.  WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE...HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.  HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA...WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND LOWER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND
MORE MILD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ALL MODELS SHOW A WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS QUESTIONABLE AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NOW. WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN LEAN TOWARD DRIER BIAS
CORRECTED DEW POINTS...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
WEEKEND WAS MUCH MORE SPARSE.

UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. GULF IS
STILL CUTOFF AT THIS POINT...RESULTING IN PERSISTENCE OF VERY DRY
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG MIXING POTENTIAL
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER REINFORCE THE DRY SURFACE AIR AND
HAVE ADJUSTED BLENDED MODEL CONSENSUS DOWNWARD. CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS
RESULT IN MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 25-30 PERCENT. WITH SURFACE
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH...SHOULD SEE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN
PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY...THOUGH EVENTUAL FIRE DANGER MAY CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RECENT RAINFALL ALLOWS FOR GREENUP OF FINER
FUELS.

GREATER UNCERTAINTY CREEPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...AS A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING OF THE FIRST WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT DIFFERS AMONG THE MODELS...WITH ECMWF LAGGING THE GEM/GFS BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS. ECMWF ALSO A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH MOISTURE THAN
THE NORTH AMERICAN MODELS...BUT GIVEN THAT A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS
STILL HANGING UP FROM EAST TEXAS  INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY...DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY BUY INTO STRENGTH OF ECMWF
MOISTURE RETURN. THUS HAVE TRIMMED MOST POPS GIVEN BY BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD...AND AGAIN MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD TWEAKS
IN SURFACE DEW POINTS...ALONG WITH MINOR UPWARD TWEAKS IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE FOR SATURDAY...WITH ECMWF REDEVELOPING
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY TRACKS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE GULF TO
OPEN BY THIS TIME AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS RANGE
THOUGH...AND DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL LOCATION...MAY SLOW UP THE
NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA. THUS AGAIN AM FAVORING
A DRIER PERIOD FOR SATURDAY THAN MODEL BLEND...TRIMMING BACK BOTH
POPS AND DEW POINTS BY A SMALL DEGREE. MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THIS
PERIOD ALSO APPARENT IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH WETTER GFS
REMAINING COOLER THAN THE DRIER ECMWF. GIVEN THE PREFERENCE FOR
DRIER FORECAST...WILL ALSO FAVOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
REACHING MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 261737
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1237 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PLEASANT SPRING DAY AHEAD WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...EXPECT DEW
POINTS TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DRY AIR MIXES DOWN FROM
ALOFT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT.  WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE...HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.  HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA...WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND LOWER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND
MORE MILD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ALL MODELS SHOW A WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS QUESTIONABLE AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NOW. WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN LEAN TOWARD DRIER BIAS
CORRECTED DEW POINTS...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
WEEKEND WAS MUCH MORE SPARSE.

UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. GULF IS
STILL CUTOFF AT THIS POINT...RESULTING IN PERSISTENCE OF VERY DRY
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG MIXING POTENTIAL
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER REINFORCE THE DRY SURFACE AIR AND
HAVE ADJUSTED BLENDED MODEL CONSENSUS DOWNWARD. CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS
RESULT IN MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 25-30 PERCENT. WITH SURFACE
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH...SHOULD SEE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN
PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY...THOUGH EVENTUAL FIRE DANGER MAY CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RECENT RAINFALL ALLOWS FOR GREENUP OF FINER
FUELS.

GREATER UNCERTAINTY CREEPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...AS A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING OF THE FIRST WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT DIFFERS AMONG THE MODELS...WITH ECMWF LAGGING THE GEM/GFS BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS. ECMWF ALSO A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH MOISTURE THAN
THE NORTH AMERICAN MODELS...BUT GIVEN THAT A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS
STILL HANGING UP FROM EAST TEXAS  INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY...DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY BUY INTO STRENGTH OF ECMWF
MOISTURE RETURN. THUS HAVE TRIMMED MOST POPS GIVEN BY BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD...AND AGAIN MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD TWEAKS
IN SURFACE DEW POINTS...ALONG WITH MINOR UPWARD TWEAKS IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE FOR SATURDAY...WITH ECMWF REDEVELOPING
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY TRACKS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE GULF TO
OPEN BY THIS TIME AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS RANGE
THOUGH...AND DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL LOCATION...MAY SLOW UP THE
NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA. THUS AGAIN AM FAVORING
A DRIER PERIOD FOR SATURDAY THAN MODEL BLEND...TRIMMING BACK BOTH
POPS AND DEW POINTS BY A SMALL DEGREE. MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THIS
PERIOD ALSO APPARENT IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH WETTER GFS
REMAINING COOLER THAN THE DRIER ECMWF. GIVEN THE PREFERENCE FOR
DRIER FORECAST...WILL ALSO FAVOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
REACHING MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KABR 261734 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1234 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

STARTING TO SEE SOME CU CLOUDS FORMING ACROSS CENTRAL SD LATE THIS
MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE OTHER CLOUDS ON SATELLITE THIS
MORNING WILL KEEP THIS AREA PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY.
THE REST OF THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THE SHOWERS IN WESTERN SD SHOULD STAY THERE THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH WEAK
ASSOCIATED ENERGY SLIDING UNDER THE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK FORCING AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ALLOWS FOR SMALL POPS ACROSS OUR
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH QPF REMAINS LOW.
FURTHER EAST...A DRIER FLOW ORIGINATING FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE HUDSON BAY REGION WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. IN
FACT...MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE DROPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN CWA.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES...BUT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. MOISTURE ISNT OVERLY
ABUNDANT...SO AGAIN LOOKING AT VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF QPF.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT THU NIGHT AS A SFC FRONT AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING
THE FIRST CHANCES OF PRECIP. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK LOWS...AT LEAST
ON THE ECMWF...MAY BRING SOME FURTHER PRECIP CHANCES FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY AT
THESE TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. SKIES MAY CLEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE TERMINALS OF
KMBG AND KPIR. THE CLEAR SKIES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE LOW END VFR CIGS MOVE BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SD






000
FXUS63 KABR 261734 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1234 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

STARTING TO SEE SOME CU CLOUDS FORMING ACROSS CENTRAL SD LATE THIS
MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE OTHER CLOUDS ON SATELLITE THIS
MORNING WILL KEEP THIS AREA PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY.
THE REST OF THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THE SHOWERS IN WESTERN SD SHOULD STAY THERE THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH WEAK
ASSOCIATED ENERGY SLIDING UNDER THE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK FORCING AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ALLOWS FOR SMALL POPS ACROSS OUR
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH QPF REMAINS LOW.
FURTHER EAST...A DRIER FLOW ORIGINATING FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE HUDSON BAY REGION WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. IN
FACT...MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE DROPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN CWA.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES...BUT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. MOISTURE ISNT OVERLY
ABUNDANT...SO AGAIN LOOKING AT VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF QPF.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT THU NIGHT AS A SFC FRONT AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING
THE FIRST CHANCES OF PRECIP. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK LOWS...AT LEAST
ON THE ECMWF...MAY BRING SOME FURTHER PRECIP CHANCES FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY AT
THESE TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. SKIES MAY CLEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE TERMINALS OF
KMBG AND KPIR. THE CLEAR SKIES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE LOW END VFR CIGS MOVE BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SD







000
FXUS63 KABR 261734 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1234 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

STARTING TO SEE SOME CU CLOUDS FORMING ACROSS CENTRAL SD LATE THIS
MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE OTHER CLOUDS ON SATELLITE THIS
MORNING WILL KEEP THIS AREA PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY.
THE REST OF THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THE SHOWERS IN WESTERN SD SHOULD STAY THERE THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH WEAK
ASSOCIATED ENERGY SLIDING UNDER THE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK FORCING AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ALLOWS FOR SMALL POPS ACROSS OUR
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH QPF REMAINS LOW.
FURTHER EAST...A DRIER FLOW ORIGINATING FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE HUDSON BAY REGION WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. IN
FACT...MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE DROPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN CWA.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES...BUT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. MOISTURE ISNT OVERLY
ABUNDANT...SO AGAIN LOOKING AT VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF QPF.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT THU NIGHT AS A SFC FRONT AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING
THE FIRST CHANCES OF PRECIP. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK LOWS...AT LEAST
ON THE ECMWF...MAY BRING SOME FURTHER PRECIP CHANCES FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY AT
THESE TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. SKIES MAY CLEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE TERMINALS OF
KMBG AND KPIR. THE CLEAR SKIES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE LOW END VFR CIGS MOVE BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SD







000
FXUS63 KABR 261734 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1234 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

STARTING TO SEE SOME CU CLOUDS FORMING ACROSS CENTRAL SD LATE THIS
MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE OTHER CLOUDS ON SATELLITE THIS
MORNING WILL KEEP THIS AREA PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY.
THE REST OF THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THE SHOWERS IN WESTERN SD SHOULD STAY THERE THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH WEAK
ASSOCIATED ENERGY SLIDING UNDER THE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK FORCING AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ALLOWS FOR SMALL POPS ACROSS OUR
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH QPF REMAINS LOW.
FURTHER EAST...A DRIER FLOW ORIGINATING FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE HUDSON BAY REGION WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. IN
FACT...MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE DROPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN CWA.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES...BUT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. MOISTURE ISNT OVERLY
ABUNDANT...SO AGAIN LOOKING AT VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF QPF.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT THU NIGHT AS A SFC FRONT AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING
THE FIRST CHANCES OF PRECIP. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK LOWS...AT LEAST
ON THE ECMWF...MAY BRING SOME FURTHER PRECIP CHANCES FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY AT
THESE TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. SKIES MAY CLEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE TERMINALS OF
KMBG AND KPIR. THE CLEAR SKIES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE LOW END VFR CIGS MOVE BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SD






000
FXUS63 KUNR 261725
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1125 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
SOUTHERN SK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN ND
INTO NORTHWEST SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
NARROW RIDGING HOLDING ON OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
NM. SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF WESTERN
SD...WITH AREAS OF FOG LINGERING...MAINLY ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD. KUDX RADAR SHOWS MOSTLY
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW A HEAVIER BAND OF RAINFALL OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WY AND
FAR WESTERN NEB...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
SHOULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS RANGE FROM AROUND 40 OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE 50S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MAKE SOME CHANGES TO POPS...QPF...
TEMPS...AND WIND FOR THE REST OF TODAY. RAISED POPS TO NEAR 100
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BAND
OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. FURTHER EAST
INTO FAR WESTERN SD...LOOKING FOR HIGH POPS BUT LOWER AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL FOR TODAY AS LIGHTER SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. POPS TAPER
OFF SHARPLY TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH SOUTH CENTRAL SD REMAINING
DRY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED
HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS CLOUD COVER AND PCPN KEEP TEMPS DOWN...SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA SHOULD STAY NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY MOVE BACK A BIT TO
THE NORTH AND WEST...SO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY...NORTHWEST SD...AND EVEN THE RAPID CITY AREA WHERE
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THE LINGERING SHOWER
ACTIVITY TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE TO NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHWEST SD BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS DEEP TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA
WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SKIES ARE
CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRODUCING
WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE OTHER IS IN COLORADO...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROF IN BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA IS NOSING INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING. TEMPERATURES AT 3AM ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY...DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WEAK RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MAJORITY OF MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SD LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THIS AREA...AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80+. ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE FAR WESTERN BLACK HILLS. WITH
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS RATHER LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE WY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL
SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS
POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER
BLACK HILLS INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT NORTHERN
STREAM TROF CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER
WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT AREA SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. A DECENT
SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

WDSPRD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MUCH OF THE AFTN
ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING
THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN SD TO MVFR. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE IMPROVING ACROSS CNTRL SD TO VFR. WDSPRD -RA WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
SOME SNOW POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KUNR 261558
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
958 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
SOUTHERN SK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN ND
INTO NORTHWEST SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
NARROW RIDGING HOLDING ON OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
NM. SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF WESTERN
SD...WITH AREAS OF FOG LINGERING...MAINLY ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD. KUDX RADAR SHOWS MOSTLY
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW A HEAVIER BAND OF RAINFALL OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WY AND
FAR WESTERN NEB...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
SHOULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS RANGE FROM AROUND 40 OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE 50S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MAKE SOME CHANGES TO POPS...QPF...
TEMPS...AND WIND FOR THE REST OF TODAY. RAISED POPS TO NEAR 100
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BAND
OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. FURTHER EAST
INTO FAR WESTERN SD...LOOKING FOR HIGH POPS BUT LOWER AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL FOR TODAY AS LIGHTER SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. POPS TAPER
OFF SHARPLY TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH SOUTH CENTRAL SD REMAINING
DRY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED
HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS CLOUD COVER AND PCPN KEEP TEMPS DOWN...SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA SHOULD STAY NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY MOVE BACK A BIT TO
THE NORTH AND WEST...SO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY...NORTHWEST SD...AND EVEN THE RAPID CITY AREA WHERE
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THE LINGERING SHOWER
ACTIVITY TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE TO NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHWEST SD BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS DEEP TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA
WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SKIES ARE
CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRODUCING
WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE OTHER IS IN COLORADO...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROF IN BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA IS NOSING INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING. TEMPERATURES AT 3AM ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY...DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WEAK RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MAJORITY OF MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SD LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THIS AREA...AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80+. ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE FAR WESTERN BLACK HILLS. WITH
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS RATHER LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE WY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL
SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS
POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER
BLACK HILLS INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT NORTHERN
STREAM TROF CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER
WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT AREA SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. A DECENT
SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR ST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER CENTRAL SD
TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON



000
FXUS63 KUNR 261558
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
958 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
SOUTHERN SK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN ND
INTO NORTHWEST SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
NARROW RIDGING HOLDING ON OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
NM. SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF WESTERN
SD...WITH AREAS OF FOG LINGERING...MAINLY ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD. KUDX RADAR SHOWS MOSTLY
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW A HEAVIER BAND OF RAINFALL OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WY AND
FAR WESTERN NEB...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
SHOULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS RANGE FROM AROUND 40 OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE 50S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MAKE SOME CHANGES TO POPS...QPF...
TEMPS...AND WIND FOR THE REST OF TODAY. RAISED POPS TO NEAR 100
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BAND
OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. FURTHER EAST
INTO FAR WESTERN SD...LOOKING FOR HIGH POPS BUT LOWER AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL FOR TODAY AS LIGHTER SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. POPS TAPER
OFF SHARPLY TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH SOUTH CENTRAL SD REMAINING
DRY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED
HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS CLOUD COVER AND PCPN KEEP TEMPS DOWN...SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA SHOULD STAY NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY MOVE BACK A BIT TO
THE NORTH AND WEST...SO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY...NORTHWEST SD...AND EVEN THE RAPID CITY AREA WHERE
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THE LINGERING SHOWER
ACTIVITY TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE TO NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHWEST SD BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS DEEP TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA
WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SKIES ARE
CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRODUCING
WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE OTHER IS IN COLORADO...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROF IN BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA IS NOSING INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING. TEMPERATURES AT 3AM ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY...DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WEAK RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MAJORITY OF MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SD LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THIS AREA...AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80+. ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE FAR WESTERN BLACK HILLS. WITH
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS RATHER LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE WY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL
SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS
POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER
BLACK HILLS INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT NORTHERN
STREAM TROF CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER
WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT AREA SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. A DECENT
SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR ST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER CENTRAL SD
TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON



000
FXUS63 KUNR 261558
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
958 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
SOUTHERN SK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN ND
INTO NORTHWEST SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
NARROW RIDGING HOLDING ON OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
NM. SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF WESTERN
SD...WITH AREAS OF FOG LINGERING...MAINLY ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD. KUDX RADAR SHOWS MOSTLY
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW A HEAVIER BAND OF RAINFALL OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WY AND
FAR WESTERN NEB...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
SHOULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS RANGE FROM AROUND 40 OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE 50S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MAKE SOME CHANGES TO POPS...QPF...
TEMPS...AND WIND FOR THE REST OF TODAY. RAISED POPS TO NEAR 100
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BAND
OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. FURTHER EAST
INTO FAR WESTERN SD...LOOKING FOR HIGH POPS BUT LOWER AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL FOR TODAY AS LIGHTER SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. POPS TAPER
OFF SHARPLY TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH SOUTH CENTRAL SD REMAINING
DRY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED
HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS CLOUD COVER AND PCPN KEEP TEMPS DOWN...SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA SHOULD STAY NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY MOVE BACK A BIT TO
THE NORTH AND WEST...SO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY...NORTHWEST SD...AND EVEN THE RAPID CITY AREA WHERE
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THE LINGERING SHOWER
ACTIVITY TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE TO NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHWEST SD BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS DEEP TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA
WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SKIES ARE
CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRODUCING
WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE OTHER IS IN COLORADO...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROF IN BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA IS NOSING INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING. TEMPERATURES AT 3AM ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY...DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WEAK RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MAJORITY OF MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SD LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THIS AREA...AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80+. ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE FAR WESTERN BLACK HILLS. WITH
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS RATHER LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE WY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL
SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS
POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER
BLACK HILLS INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT NORTHERN
STREAM TROF CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER
WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT AREA SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. A DECENT
SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR ST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER CENTRAL SD
TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON



000
FXUS63 KUNR 261558
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
958 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
SOUTHERN SK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN ND
INTO NORTHWEST SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
NARROW RIDGING HOLDING ON OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
NM. SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF WESTERN
SD...WITH AREAS OF FOG LINGERING...MAINLY ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD. KUDX RADAR SHOWS MOSTLY
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW A HEAVIER BAND OF RAINFALL OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WY AND
FAR WESTERN NEB...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
SHOULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS RANGE FROM AROUND 40 OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE 50S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MAKE SOME CHANGES TO POPS...QPF...
TEMPS...AND WIND FOR THE REST OF TODAY. RAISED POPS TO NEAR 100
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BAND
OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. FURTHER EAST
INTO FAR WESTERN SD...LOOKING FOR HIGH POPS BUT LOWER AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL FOR TODAY AS LIGHTER SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. POPS TAPER
OFF SHARPLY TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH SOUTH CENTRAL SD REMAINING
DRY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED
HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS CLOUD COVER AND PCPN KEEP TEMPS DOWN...SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA SHOULD STAY NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY MOVE BACK A BIT TO
THE NORTH AND WEST...SO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY...NORTHWEST SD...AND EVEN THE RAPID CITY AREA WHERE
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THE LINGERING SHOWER
ACTIVITY TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE TO NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHWEST SD BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS DEEP TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA
WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SKIES ARE
CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRODUCING
WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE OTHER IS IN COLORADO...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROF IN BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA IS NOSING INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING. TEMPERATURES AT 3AM ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY...DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WEAK RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MAJORITY OF MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SD LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THIS AREA...AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80+. ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE FAR WESTERN BLACK HILLS. WITH
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS RATHER LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE WY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL
SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS
POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER
BLACK HILLS INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT NORTHERN
STREAM TROF CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER
WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT AREA SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. A DECENT
SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR ST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER CENTRAL SD
TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON



000
FXUS63 KABR 261543 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1043 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

STARTING TO SEE SOME CU CLOUDS FORMING ACROSS CENTRAL SD LATE THIS
MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE OTHER CLOUDS ON SATELLITE THIS
MORNING WILL KEEP THIS AREA PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY.
THE REST OF THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THE SHOWERS IN WESTERN SD SHOULD STAY THERE THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH WEAK
ASSOCIATED ENERGY SLIDING UNDER THE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK FORCING AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ALLOWS FOR SMALL POPS ACROSS OUR
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH QPF REMAINS LOW.
FURTHER EAST...A DRIER FLOW ORIGINATING FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE HUDSON BAY REGION WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. IN
FACT...MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE DROPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN CWA.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES...BUT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. MOISTURE ISNT OVERLY
ABUNDANT...SO AGAIN LOOKING AT VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF QPF.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT THU NIGHT AS A SFC FRONT AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING
THE FIRST CHANCES OF PRECIP. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK LOWS...AT LEAST
ON THE ECMWF...MAY BRING SOME FURTHER PRECIP CHANCES FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY AT
THESE TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING NEAR KMBG AND SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON
THE TAF.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE






000
FXUS63 KABR 261543 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1043 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

STARTING TO SEE SOME CU CLOUDS FORMING ACROSS CENTRAL SD LATE THIS
MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE OTHER CLOUDS ON SATELLITE THIS
MORNING WILL KEEP THIS AREA PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY.
THE REST OF THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THE SHOWERS IN WESTERN SD SHOULD STAY THERE THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH WEAK
ASSOCIATED ENERGY SLIDING UNDER THE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK FORCING AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ALLOWS FOR SMALL POPS ACROSS OUR
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH QPF REMAINS LOW.
FURTHER EAST...A DRIER FLOW ORIGINATING FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE HUDSON BAY REGION WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. IN
FACT...MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE DROPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN CWA.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES...BUT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. MOISTURE ISNT OVERLY
ABUNDANT...SO AGAIN LOOKING AT VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF QPF.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT THU NIGHT AS A SFC FRONT AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING
THE FIRST CHANCES OF PRECIP. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK LOWS...AT LEAST
ON THE ECMWF...MAY BRING SOME FURTHER PRECIP CHANCES FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY AT
THESE TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING NEAR KMBG AND SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON
THE TAF.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 261134
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
534 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS DEEP TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA
WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SKIES ARE
CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRODUCING
WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE OTHER IS IN COLORADO...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROF IN BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA IS NOSING INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING. TEMPERATURES AT 3AM ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY...DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WEAK RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MAJORITY OF MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SD LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THIS AREA...AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80+. ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE FAR WESTERN BLACK HILLS. WITH
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS RATHER LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE WY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL
SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS
POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER
BLACK HILLS INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT NORTHERN
STREAM TROF CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER
WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT AREA SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. A DECENT
SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR ST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER CENTRAL SD
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 261134
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
534 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS DEEP TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA
WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SKIES ARE
CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRODUCING
WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE OTHER IS IN COLORADO...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROF IN BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA IS NOSING INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING. TEMPERATURES AT 3AM ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY...DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WEAK RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MAJORITY OF MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SD LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THIS AREA...AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80+. ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE FAR WESTERN BLACK HILLS. WITH
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS RATHER LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE WY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL
SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS
POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER
BLACK HILLS INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT NORTHERN
STREAM TROF CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER
WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT AREA SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. A DECENT
SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR ST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER CENTRAL SD
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 261134
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
534 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS DEEP TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA
WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SKIES ARE
CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRODUCING
WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE OTHER IS IN COLORADO...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROF IN BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA IS NOSING INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING. TEMPERATURES AT 3AM ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY...DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WEAK RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MAJORITY OF MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SD LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THIS AREA...AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80+. ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE FAR WESTERN BLACK HILLS. WITH
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS RATHER LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE WY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL
SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS
POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER
BLACK HILLS INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT NORTHERN
STREAM TROF CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER
WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT AREA SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. A DECENT
SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR ST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER CENTRAL SD
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 261134
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
534 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS DEEP TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA
WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SKIES ARE
CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRODUCING
WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE OTHER IS IN COLORADO...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROF IN BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA IS NOSING INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING. TEMPERATURES AT 3AM ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY...DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WEAK RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MAJORITY OF MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SD LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THIS AREA...AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80+. ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE FAR WESTERN BLACK HILLS. WITH
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS RATHER LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE WY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL
SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS
POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER
BLACK HILLS INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT NORTHERN
STREAM TROF CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER
WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT AREA SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. A DECENT
SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR ST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER CENTRAL SD
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 261134
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
534 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS DEEP TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA
WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SKIES ARE
CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRODUCING
WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE OTHER IS IN COLORADO...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROF IN BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA IS NOSING INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING. TEMPERATURES AT 3AM ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY...DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WEAK RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MAJORITY OF MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SD LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THIS AREA...AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80+. ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE FAR WESTERN BLACK HILLS. WITH
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS RATHER LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE WY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL
SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS
POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER
BLACK HILLS INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT NORTHERN
STREAM TROF CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER
WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT AREA SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. A DECENT
SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR ST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER CENTRAL SD
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 261134
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
534 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS DEEP TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA
WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SKIES ARE
CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRODUCING
WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE OTHER IS IN COLORADO...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROF IN BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA IS NOSING INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING. TEMPERATURES AT 3AM ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY...DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WEAK RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MAJORITY OF MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SD LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THIS AREA...AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80+. ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE FAR WESTERN BLACK HILLS. WITH
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS RATHER LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE WY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL
SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS
POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER
BLACK HILLS INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT NORTHERN
STREAM TROF CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER
WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT AREA SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. A DECENT
SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR ST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER CENTRAL SD
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON



000
FXUS63 KABR 261128 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
628 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH WEAK
ASSOCIATED ENERGY SLIDING UNDER THE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK FORCING AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ALLOWS FOR SMALL POPS ACROSS OUR
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH QPF REMAINS LOW.
FURTHER EAST...A DRIER FLOW ORIGINATING FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE HUDSON BAY REGION WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. IN
FACT...MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE DROPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN CWA.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES...BUT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. MOISTURE ISNT OVERLY
ABUNDANT...SO AGAIN LOOKING AT VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF QPF.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT THU NIGHT AS A SFC FRONT AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING
THE FIRST CHANCES OF PRECIP. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK LOWS...AT LEAST
ON THE ECMWF...MAY BRING SOME FURTHER PRECIP CHANCES FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY AT
THESE TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING NEAR KMBG AND SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON
THE TAF.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE







000
FXUS63 KFSD 261127
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
627 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PLEASANT SPRING DAY AHEAD WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...EXPECT DEW
POINTS TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DRY AIR MIXES DOWN FROM
ALOFT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT.  WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE...HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.  HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA...WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND LOWER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND
MORE MILD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ALL MODELS SHOW A WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS QUESTIONABLE AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NOW. WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN LEAN TOWARD DRIER BIAS
CORRECTED DEW POINTS...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
WEEKEND WAS MUCH MORE SPARSE.

UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. GULF IS
STILL CUTOFF AT THIS POINT...RESULTING IN PERSISTENCE OF VERY DRY
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG MIXING POTENTIAL
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER REINFORCE THE DRY SURFACE AIR AND
HAVE ADJUSTED BLENDED MODEL CONSENSUS DOWNWARD. CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS
RESULT IN MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 25-30 PERCENT. WITH SURFACE
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH...SHOULD SEE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN
PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY...THOUGH EVENTUAL FIRE DANGER MAY CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RECENT RAINFALL ALLOWS FOR GREENUP OF FINER
FUELS.

GREATER UNCERTAINTY CREEPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...AS A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING OF THE FIRST WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT DIFFERS AMONG THE MODELS...WITH ECMWF LAGGING THE GEM/GFS BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS. ECMWF ALSO A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH MOISTURE THAN
THE NORTH AMERICAN MODELS...BUT GIVEN THAT A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS
STILL HANGING UP FROM EAST TEXAS  INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY...DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY BUY INTO STRENGTH OF ECMWF
MOISTURE RETURN. THUS HAVE TRIMMED MOST POPS GIVEN BY BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD...AND AGAIN MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD TWEAKS
IN SURFACE DEW POINTS...ALONG WITH MINOR UPWARD TWEAKS IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE FOR SATURDAY...WITH ECMWF REDEVELOPING
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY TRACKS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE GULF TO
OPEN BY THIS TIME AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS RANGE
THOUGH...AND DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL LOCATION...MAY SLOW UP THE
NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA. THUS AGAIN AM FAVORING
A DRIER PERIOD FOR SATURDAY THAN MODEL BLEND...TRIMMING BACK BOTH
POPS AND DEW POINTS BY A SMALL DEGREE. MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THIS
PERIOD ALSO APPARENT IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH WETTER GFS
REMAINING COOLER THAN THE DRIER ECMWF. GIVEN THE PREFERENCE FOR
DRIER FORECAST...WILL ALSO FAVOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
REACHING MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 4-6 SM RANGE WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF WITHIN AN HOUR OF SUNRISE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 261127
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
627 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PLEASANT SPRING DAY AHEAD WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...EXPECT DEW
POINTS TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DRY AIR MIXES DOWN FROM
ALOFT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT.  WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE...HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.  HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA...WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND LOWER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND
MORE MILD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ALL MODELS SHOW A WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS QUESTIONABLE AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NOW. WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN LEAN TOWARD DRIER BIAS
CORRECTED DEW POINTS...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
WEEKEND WAS MUCH MORE SPARSE.

UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. GULF IS
STILL CUTOFF AT THIS POINT...RESULTING IN PERSISTENCE OF VERY DRY
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG MIXING POTENTIAL
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER REINFORCE THE DRY SURFACE AIR AND
HAVE ADJUSTED BLENDED MODEL CONSENSUS DOWNWARD. CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS
RESULT IN MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 25-30 PERCENT. WITH SURFACE
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH...SHOULD SEE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN
PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY...THOUGH EVENTUAL FIRE DANGER MAY CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RECENT RAINFALL ALLOWS FOR GREENUP OF FINER
FUELS.

GREATER UNCERTAINTY CREEPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...AS A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING OF THE FIRST WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT DIFFERS AMONG THE MODELS...WITH ECMWF LAGGING THE GEM/GFS BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS. ECMWF ALSO A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH MOISTURE THAN
THE NORTH AMERICAN MODELS...BUT GIVEN THAT A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS
STILL HANGING UP FROM EAST TEXAS  INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY...DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY BUY INTO STRENGTH OF ECMWF
MOISTURE RETURN. THUS HAVE TRIMMED MOST POPS GIVEN BY BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD...AND AGAIN MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD TWEAKS
IN SURFACE DEW POINTS...ALONG WITH MINOR UPWARD TWEAKS IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE FOR SATURDAY...WITH ECMWF REDEVELOPING
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY TRACKS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE GULF TO
OPEN BY THIS TIME AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS RANGE
THOUGH...AND DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL LOCATION...MAY SLOW UP THE
NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA. THUS AGAIN AM FAVORING
A DRIER PERIOD FOR SATURDAY THAN MODEL BLEND...TRIMMING BACK BOTH
POPS AND DEW POINTS BY A SMALL DEGREE. MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THIS
PERIOD ALSO APPARENT IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH WETTER GFS
REMAINING COOLER THAN THE DRIER ECMWF. GIVEN THE PREFERENCE FOR
DRIER FORECAST...WILL ALSO FAVOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
REACHING MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 4-6 SM RANGE WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF WITHIN AN HOUR OF SUNRISE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 261127
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
627 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PLEASANT SPRING DAY AHEAD WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...EXPECT DEW
POINTS TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DRY AIR MIXES DOWN FROM
ALOFT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT.  WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE...HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.  HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA...WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND LOWER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND
MORE MILD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ALL MODELS SHOW A WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS QUESTIONABLE AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NOW. WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN LEAN TOWARD DRIER BIAS
CORRECTED DEW POINTS...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
WEEKEND WAS MUCH MORE SPARSE.

UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. GULF IS
STILL CUTOFF AT THIS POINT...RESULTING IN PERSISTENCE OF VERY DRY
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG MIXING POTENTIAL
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER REINFORCE THE DRY SURFACE AIR AND
HAVE ADJUSTED BLENDED MODEL CONSENSUS DOWNWARD. CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS
RESULT IN MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 25-30 PERCENT. WITH SURFACE
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH...SHOULD SEE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN
PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY...THOUGH EVENTUAL FIRE DANGER MAY CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RECENT RAINFALL ALLOWS FOR GREENUP OF FINER
FUELS.

GREATER UNCERTAINTY CREEPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...AS A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING OF THE FIRST WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT DIFFERS AMONG THE MODELS...WITH ECMWF LAGGING THE GEM/GFS BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS. ECMWF ALSO A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH MOISTURE THAN
THE NORTH AMERICAN MODELS...BUT GIVEN THAT A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS
STILL HANGING UP FROM EAST TEXAS  INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY...DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY BUY INTO STRENGTH OF ECMWF
MOISTURE RETURN. THUS HAVE TRIMMED MOST POPS GIVEN BY BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD...AND AGAIN MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD TWEAKS
IN SURFACE DEW POINTS...ALONG WITH MINOR UPWARD TWEAKS IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE FOR SATURDAY...WITH ECMWF REDEVELOPING
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY TRACKS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE GULF TO
OPEN BY THIS TIME AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS RANGE
THOUGH...AND DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL LOCATION...MAY SLOW UP THE
NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA. THUS AGAIN AM FAVORING
A DRIER PERIOD FOR SATURDAY THAN MODEL BLEND...TRIMMING BACK BOTH
POPS AND DEW POINTS BY A SMALL DEGREE. MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THIS
PERIOD ALSO APPARENT IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH WETTER GFS
REMAINING COOLER THAN THE DRIER ECMWF. GIVEN THE PREFERENCE FOR
DRIER FORECAST...WILL ALSO FAVOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
REACHING MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 4-6 SM RANGE WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF WITHIN AN HOUR OF SUNRISE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 261127
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
627 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PLEASANT SPRING DAY AHEAD WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...EXPECT DEW
POINTS TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DRY AIR MIXES DOWN FROM
ALOFT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT.  WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE...HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.  HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA...WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND LOWER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND
MORE MILD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ALL MODELS SHOW A WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS QUESTIONABLE AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NOW. WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN LEAN TOWARD DRIER BIAS
CORRECTED DEW POINTS...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
WEEKEND WAS MUCH MORE SPARSE.

UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. GULF IS
STILL CUTOFF AT THIS POINT...RESULTING IN PERSISTENCE OF VERY DRY
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG MIXING POTENTIAL
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER REINFORCE THE DRY SURFACE AIR AND
HAVE ADJUSTED BLENDED MODEL CONSENSUS DOWNWARD. CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS
RESULT IN MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 25-30 PERCENT. WITH SURFACE
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH...SHOULD SEE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN
PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY...THOUGH EVENTUAL FIRE DANGER MAY CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RECENT RAINFALL ALLOWS FOR GREENUP OF FINER
FUELS.

GREATER UNCERTAINTY CREEPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...AS A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING OF THE FIRST WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT DIFFERS AMONG THE MODELS...WITH ECMWF LAGGING THE GEM/GFS BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS. ECMWF ALSO A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH MOISTURE THAN
THE NORTH AMERICAN MODELS...BUT GIVEN THAT A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS
STILL HANGING UP FROM EAST TEXAS  INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY...DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY BUY INTO STRENGTH OF ECMWF
MOISTURE RETURN. THUS HAVE TRIMMED MOST POPS GIVEN BY BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD...AND AGAIN MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD TWEAKS
IN SURFACE DEW POINTS...ALONG WITH MINOR UPWARD TWEAKS IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE FOR SATURDAY...WITH ECMWF REDEVELOPING
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY TRACKS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE GULF TO
OPEN BY THIS TIME AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS RANGE
THOUGH...AND DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL LOCATION...MAY SLOW UP THE
NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA. THUS AGAIN AM FAVORING
A DRIER PERIOD FOR SATURDAY THAN MODEL BLEND...TRIMMING BACK BOTH
POPS AND DEW POINTS BY A SMALL DEGREE. MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THIS
PERIOD ALSO APPARENT IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH WETTER GFS
REMAINING COOLER THAN THE DRIER ECMWF. GIVEN THE PREFERENCE FOR
DRIER FORECAST...WILL ALSO FAVOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
REACHING MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 4-6 SM RANGE WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF WITHIN AN HOUR OF SUNRISE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KUNR 260938
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
338 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS DEEP TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA
WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SKIES ARE
CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRODUCING
WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE OTHER IS IN COLORADO...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROF IN BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA IS NOSING INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING. TEMPERATURES AT 3AM ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY...DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WEAK RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MAJORITY OF MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SD LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THIS AREA...AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80+. ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE FAR WESTERN BLACK HILLS. WITH
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS RATHER LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE WY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL
SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS
POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER
BLACK HILLS INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT NORTHERN
STREAM TROF CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER
WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT AREA SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. A DECENT
SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR ST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER CENTRAL SD
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON



000
FXUS63 KUNR 260938
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
338 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS DEEP TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA
WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SKIES ARE
CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRODUCING
WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE OTHER IS IN COLORADO...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROF IN BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA IS NOSING INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING. TEMPERATURES AT 3AM ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY...DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WEAK RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MAJORITY OF MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SD LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THIS AREA...AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80+. ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE FAR WESTERN BLACK HILLS. WITH
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS RATHER LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE WY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL
SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS
POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER
BLACK HILLS INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT NORTHERN
STREAM TROF CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER
WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT AREA SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. A DECENT
SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR ST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER CENTRAL SD
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KFSD 260918
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PLEASANT SPRING DAY AHEAD WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...EXPECT DEW
POINTS TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DRY AIR MIXES DOWN FROM
ALOFT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT.  WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE...HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.  HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA...WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND LOWER
30S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND
MORE MILD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ALL MODELS SHOW A WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS QUESTIONABLE AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NOW. WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN LEAN TOWARD DRIER BIAS
CORRECTED DEW POINTS...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
WEEKEND WAS MUCH MORE SPARSE.

UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. GULF IS
STILL CUTOFF AT THIS POINT...RESULTING IN PERSISTENCE OF VERY DRY
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG MIXING POTENTIAL
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER REINFORCE THE DRY SURFACE AIR AND
HAVE ADJUSTED BLENDED MODEL CONSENSUS DOWNWARD. CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS
RESULT IN MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 25-30 PERCENT. WITH SURFACE
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH...SHOULD SEE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN
PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY...THOUGH EVENTUAL FIRE DANGER MAY CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RECENT RAINFALL ALLOWS FOR GREENUP OF FINER
FUELS.

GREATER UNCERTAINTY CREEPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...AS A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING OF THE FIRST WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT DIFFERS AMONG THE MODELS...WITH ECMWF LAGGING THE GEM/GFS BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS. ECMWF ALSO A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH MOISTURE THAN
THE NORTH AMERICAN MODELS...BUT GIVEN THAT A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS
STILL HANGING UP FROM EAST TEXAS  INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY...DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY BUY INTO STRENGTH OF ECMWF
MOISTURE RETURN. THUS HAVE TRIMMED MOST POPS GIVEN BY BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD...AND AGAIN MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD TWEAKS
IN SURFACE DEW POINTS...ALONG WITH MINOR UPWARD TWEAKS IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE FOR SATURDAY...WITH ECMWF REDEVELOPING
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY TRACKS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE GULF TO
OPEN BY THIS TIME AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS RANGE
THOUGH...AND DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL LOCATION...MAY SLOW UP THE
NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA. THUS AGAIN AM FAVORING
A DRIER PERIOD FOR SATURDAY THAN MODEL BLEND...TRIMMING BACK BOTH
POPS AND DEW POINTS BY A SMALL DEGREE. MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THIS
PERIOD ALSO APPARENT IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH WETTER GFS
REMAINING COOLER THAN THE DRIER ECMWF. GIVEN THE PREFERENCE FOR
DRIER FORECAST...WILL ALSO FAVOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
REACHING MID TO UPPER 70S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. AS CLOUDS CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG. THIS
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD HOWEVER. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS TURNING VARIABLE IN THE EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KFSD 260918
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PLEASANT SPRING DAY AHEAD WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...EXPECT DEW
POINTS TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DRY AIR MIXES DOWN FROM
ALOFT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT.  WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE...HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.  HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA...WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND LOWER
30S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND
MORE MILD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ALL MODELS SHOW A WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS QUESTIONABLE AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NOW. WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN LEAN TOWARD DRIER BIAS
CORRECTED DEW POINTS...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
WEEKEND WAS MUCH MORE SPARSE.

UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. GULF IS
STILL CUTOFF AT THIS POINT...RESULTING IN PERSISTENCE OF VERY DRY
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG MIXING POTENTIAL
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER REINFORCE THE DRY SURFACE AIR AND
HAVE ADJUSTED BLENDED MODEL CONSENSUS DOWNWARD. CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS
RESULT IN MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 25-30 PERCENT. WITH SURFACE
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH...SHOULD SEE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN
PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY...THOUGH EVENTUAL FIRE DANGER MAY CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RECENT RAINFALL ALLOWS FOR GREENUP OF FINER
FUELS.

GREATER UNCERTAINTY CREEPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...AS A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING OF THE FIRST WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT DIFFERS AMONG THE MODELS...WITH ECMWF LAGGING THE GEM/GFS BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS. ECMWF ALSO A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH MOISTURE THAN
THE NORTH AMERICAN MODELS...BUT GIVEN THAT A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS
STILL HANGING UP FROM EAST TEXAS  INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY...DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY BUY INTO STRENGTH OF ECMWF
MOISTURE RETURN. THUS HAVE TRIMMED MOST POPS GIVEN BY BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD...AND AGAIN MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD TWEAKS
IN SURFACE DEW POINTS...ALONG WITH MINOR UPWARD TWEAKS IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE FOR SATURDAY...WITH ECMWF REDEVELOPING
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY TRACKS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE GULF TO
OPEN BY THIS TIME AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS RANGE
THOUGH...AND DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL LOCATION...MAY SLOW UP THE
NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA. THUS AGAIN AM FAVORING
A DRIER PERIOD FOR SATURDAY THAN MODEL BLEND...TRIMMING BACK BOTH
POPS AND DEW POINTS BY A SMALL DEGREE. MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THIS
PERIOD ALSO APPARENT IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH WETTER GFS
REMAINING COOLER THAN THE DRIER ECMWF. GIVEN THE PREFERENCE FOR
DRIER FORECAST...WILL ALSO FAVOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
REACHING MID TO UPPER 70S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. AS CLOUDS CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG. THIS
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD HOWEVER. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS TURNING VARIABLE IN THE EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KABR 260831
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
331 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH WEAK
ASSOCIATED ENERGY SLIDING UNDER THE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK FORCING AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ALLOWS FOR SMALL POPS ACROSS OUR
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH QPF REMAINS LOW.
FURTHER EAST...A DRIER FLOW ORIGINATING FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE HUDSON BAY REGION WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. IN
FACT...MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE DROPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN CWA.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES...BUT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. MOISTURE ISNT OVERLY
ABUNDANT...SO AGAIN LOOKING AT VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF QPF.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT THU NIGHT AS A SFC FRONT AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING
THE FIRST CHANCES OF PRECIP. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK LOWS...AT LEAST
ON THE ECMWF...MAY BRING SOME FURTHER PRECIP CHANCES FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY AT
THESE TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPTING SOME LATE NIGHT IFR FOG IS
EXPECTED AT KABR/KATY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KPIR/KMBG WILL SEE A
MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE







000
FXUS63 KABR 260831
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
331 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH WEAK
ASSOCIATED ENERGY SLIDING UNDER THE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK FORCING AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ALLOWS FOR SMALL POPS ACROSS OUR
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH QPF REMAINS LOW.
FURTHER EAST...A DRIER FLOW ORIGINATING FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE HUDSON BAY REGION WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. IN
FACT...MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE DROPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN CWA.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES...BUT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. MOISTURE ISNT OVERLY
ABUNDANT...SO AGAIN LOOKING AT VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF QPF.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT THU NIGHT AS A SFC FRONT AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING
THE FIRST CHANCES OF PRECIP. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK LOWS...AT LEAST
ON THE ECMWF...MAY BRING SOME FURTHER PRECIP CHANCES FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY AT
THESE TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPTING SOME LATE NIGHT IFR FOG IS
EXPECTED AT KABR/KATY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KPIR/KMBG WILL SEE A
MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE






000
FXUS63 KABR 260529 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1229 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
CONVECTION GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OUT WEST. SOME CLEAR SPOTS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WAS
ALREADY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
OUR WEST RIVER COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES IN
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...WITH
SURFACE PRESSURES RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE SLOWLY
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FOG
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND WEST. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE CWA ALONG WITH WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
60S.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY TO WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS ALONG THE MAIN CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE. AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH INTO OUR CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN. THE MODELS ALL
INDICATE SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOW LESS AS IT
MOVES IN. HAVE IN SOME POPS AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THIS ALL DEPENDS
ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS IS WHEN
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION. 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE BOTH NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THESE WARM TEMPS ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S...TO THE
MID 80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND AFTER 0Z
SATURDAY...OR WHEN THE EML COOLS OFF.

THERE IS A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ECMWF SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. EITHER WAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPTING SOME LATE NIGHT IFR FOG IS
EXPECTED AT KABR/KATY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KPIR/KMBG WILL SEE A
MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE







000
FXUS63 KABR 260529 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1229 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
CONVECTION GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OUT WEST. SOME CLEAR SPOTS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WAS
ALREADY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
OUR WEST RIVER COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES IN
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...WITH
SURFACE PRESSURES RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE SLOWLY
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FOG
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND WEST. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE CWA ALONG WITH WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
60S.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY TO WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS ALONG THE MAIN CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE. AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH INTO OUR CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN. THE MODELS ALL
INDICATE SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOW LESS AS IT
MOVES IN. HAVE IN SOME POPS AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THIS ALL DEPENDS
ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS IS WHEN
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION. 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE BOTH NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THESE WARM TEMPS ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S...TO THE
MID 80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND AFTER 0Z
SATURDAY...OR WHEN THE EML COOLS OFF.

THERE IS A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ECMWF SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. EITHER WAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPTING SOME LATE NIGHT IFR FOG IS
EXPECTED AT KABR/KATY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KPIR/KMBG WILL SEE A
MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE







000
FXUS63 KABR 260529 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1229 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
CONVECTION GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OUT WEST. SOME CLEAR SPOTS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WAS
ALREADY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
OUR WEST RIVER COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES IN
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...WITH
SURFACE PRESSURES RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE SLOWLY
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FOG
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND WEST. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE CWA ALONG WITH WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
60S.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY TO WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS ALONG THE MAIN CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE. AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH INTO OUR CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN. THE MODELS ALL
INDICATE SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOW LESS AS IT
MOVES IN. HAVE IN SOME POPS AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THIS ALL DEPENDS
ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS IS WHEN
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION. 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE BOTH NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THESE WARM TEMPS ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S...TO THE
MID 80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND AFTER 0Z
SATURDAY...OR WHEN THE EML COOLS OFF.

THERE IS A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ECMWF SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. EITHER WAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPTING SOME LATE NIGHT IFR FOG IS
EXPECTED AT KABR/KATY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KPIR/KMBG WILL SEE A
MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE








000
FXUS63 KUNR 260511
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1111 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH COLD FRONT BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY...AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IL...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
SOUTHWEST SD. A COUPLE OF CELLS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE PRODUCING
SOME SMALL HAIL. OTHER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SD TO AROUND 60 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SD
AND NORTHEAST WY.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF
MAIN PCPN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF WEST COAST
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
ONE DISTURBANCE IS ACROSS EASTERN WY NOW...WITH ANOTHER ONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT. THE BEST CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CALLS FOR
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF CLOSE TO A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EVENING.

FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD. THE HEAVIER PCPN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS...80+ PERCENT...OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS REMAINING AS RAIN
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY MIX IN THE
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

AS DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL STILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS NARROWING RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. RAISED POPS TO 80+ FOR THESE AREAS.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS RATHER LOW ON SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY AS NRN STREAM TROF AXIS
CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY TO MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS.
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH WELL THROUGH THE 70S...AND
INTO THE 80S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR SCT IFR/LIFR STRATUS OVER MOST AREAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY MORNING...WITH PCPN BECOMING MORE WDSPRD
LATE TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED IN HEAVIER PCPN. CONDS WILL
IMPROVE SOME OVER THE EASTERN HALF SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
WESTERN HALF LIKELY REMAINING IFR/MVFR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 260511
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1111 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH COLD FRONT BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY...AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IL...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
SOUTHWEST SD. A COUPLE OF CELLS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE PRODUCING
SOME SMALL HAIL. OTHER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SD TO AROUND 60 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SD
AND NORTHEAST WY.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF
MAIN PCPN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF WEST COAST
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
ONE DISTURBANCE IS ACROSS EASTERN WY NOW...WITH ANOTHER ONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT. THE BEST CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CALLS FOR
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF CLOSE TO A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EVENING.

FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD. THE HEAVIER PCPN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS...80+ PERCENT...OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS REMAINING AS RAIN
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY MIX IN THE
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

AS DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL STILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS NARROWING RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. RAISED POPS TO 80+ FOR THESE AREAS.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS RATHER LOW ON SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY AS NRN STREAM TROF AXIS
CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY TO MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS.
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH WELL THROUGH THE 70S...AND
INTO THE 80S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR SCT IFR/LIFR STRATUS OVER MOST AREAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY MORNING...WITH PCPN BECOMING MORE WDSPRD
LATE TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED IN HEAVIER PCPN. CONDS WILL
IMPROVE SOME OVER THE EASTERN HALF SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
WESTERN HALF LIKELY REMAINING IFR/MVFR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 260511
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1111 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH COLD FRONT BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY...AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IL...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
SOUTHWEST SD. A COUPLE OF CELLS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE PRODUCING
SOME SMALL HAIL. OTHER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SD TO AROUND 60 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SD
AND NORTHEAST WY.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF
MAIN PCPN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF WEST COAST
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
ONE DISTURBANCE IS ACROSS EASTERN WY NOW...WITH ANOTHER ONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT. THE BEST CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CALLS FOR
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF CLOSE TO A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EVENING.

FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD. THE HEAVIER PCPN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS...80+ PERCENT...OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS REMAINING AS RAIN
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY MIX IN THE
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

AS DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL STILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS NARROWING RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. RAISED POPS TO 80+ FOR THESE AREAS.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS RATHER LOW ON SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY AS NRN STREAM TROF AXIS
CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY TO MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS.
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH WELL THROUGH THE 70S...AND
INTO THE 80S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR SCT IFR/LIFR STRATUS OVER MOST AREAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY MORNING...WITH PCPN BECOMING MORE WDSPRD
LATE TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED IN HEAVIER PCPN. CONDS WILL
IMPROVE SOME OVER THE EASTERN HALF SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
WESTERN HALF LIKELY REMAINING IFR/MVFR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 260511
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1111 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH COLD FRONT BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY...AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IL...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
SOUTHWEST SD. A COUPLE OF CELLS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE PRODUCING
SOME SMALL HAIL. OTHER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SD TO AROUND 60 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SD
AND NORTHEAST WY.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF
MAIN PCPN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF WEST COAST
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
ONE DISTURBANCE IS ACROSS EASTERN WY NOW...WITH ANOTHER ONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT. THE BEST CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CALLS FOR
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF CLOSE TO A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EVENING.

FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD. THE HEAVIER PCPN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS...80+ PERCENT...OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS REMAINING AS RAIN
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY MIX IN THE
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

AS DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL STILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS NARROWING RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. RAISED POPS TO 80+ FOR THESE AREAS.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS RATHER LOW ON SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY AS NRN STREAM TROF AXIS
CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY TO MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS.
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH WELL THROUGH THE 70S...AND
INTO THE 80S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR SCT IFR/LIFR STRATUS OVER MOST AREAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY MORNING...WITH PCPN BECOMING MORE WDSPRD
LATE TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED IN HEAVIER PCPN. CONDS WILL
IMPROVE SOME OVER THE EASTERN HALF SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
WESTERN HALF LIKELY REMAINING IFR/MVFR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 260511
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1111 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH COLD FRONT BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY...AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IL...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
SOUTHWEST SD. A COUPLE OF CELLS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE PRODUCING
SOME SMALL HAIL. OTHER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SD TO AROUND 60 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SD
AND NORTHEAST WY.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF
MAIN PCPN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF WEST COAST
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
ONE DISTURBANCE IS ACROSS EASTERN WY NOW...WITH ANOTHER ONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT. THE BEST CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CALLS FOR
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF CLOSE TO A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EVENING.

FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD. THE HEAVIER PCPN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS...80+ PERCENT...OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS REMAINING AS RAIN
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY MIX IN THE
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

AS DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL STILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS NARROWING RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. RAISED POPS TO 80+ FOR THESE AREAS.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS RATHER LOW ON SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY AS NRN STREAM TROF AXIS
CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY TO MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS.
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH WELL THROUGH THE 70S...AND
INTO THE 80S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR SCT IFR/LIFR STRATUS OVER MOST AREAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY MORNING...WITH PCPN BECOMING MORE WDSPRD
LATE TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED IN HEAVIER PCPN. CONDS WILL
IMPROVE SOME OVER THE EASTERN HALF SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
WESTERN HALF LIKELY REMAINING IFR/MVFR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KFSD 260329
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1029 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SHEARING
DEPARTURE OF UPPER LOW TO SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF NARROW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL MAINTAIN A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO BACK THROUGH MINNESOTA. DRIER AIR HAS ERODED MOST OF
THE LOWEST CLOUDINESS ALREADY TODAY...REPLACED BY HIGHER MIXING
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD.  MANY OF THESE CLOUDS OVER THE MID AND EASTERN
CWA WILL BECOME FAIRLY PERISHABLE TONIGHT...MAKING FOR A GRADUAL
EAST TO WEST CLEARING WORKING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
SUNDAY. A BIT MOISTURE TRAJECTORY REMAINS THROUGH THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A BIT OF PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP LATE NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE CONTINUED DRYING AND EASTERLY
GRADIENT...SHOULD NOT BECOME ANY LARGE CONCERN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED.

THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE REASON
NOT TO EXPECT THAT IT WILL BECOME MORE DEEPLY MIXED AND LIKEWISE
TOWARD THE DRIER AND WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE IF RECENT LOCAL WET SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA CAN
OVERCOME THIS MIXING...AND KEEP DEWPOINT A BIT HIGHER...BUT AREA OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS CONSIDERABLY SMALL AND LARGER IMPACT SHOULD
BE MINIMAL.  SHOULD END UP WITH GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH TROUGHING BLOCKING FLOW TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTTING TO THE SOUTH...FAIRLY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL ABOUND IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PARKED OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WHILE MIXING IS
NOT IDEAL...DID TREND WARMER TOWARDS THE BIAS CORRECTED MODELS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. A WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY BUT LOOKS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED
AS TREKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN DRY WHILE
THE ECMWF AND GEM PAINT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
CORNER. DECIDED TO REMOVE POP MENTION IN TUNE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY...USHERING IN WARMER WEATHER AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
COULD SEE SOME FIRE DANGER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THIS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE REALIZED. WENT A
BIT PESSIMISTIC ON DEWPOINTS WHICH DROPS OUR RH RIGHT AROUND 30 TO
40 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AROUND THE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS IN A MORE ROBUST SLOW MOVING WAVE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE HIGHS IMPROVE INTO THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. AS CLOUDS CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG. THIS
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD HOWEVER. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS TURNING VARIABLE IN THE EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 260329
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1029 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SHEARING
DEPARTURE OF UPPER LOW TO SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF NARROW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL MAINTAIN A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO BACK THROUGH MINNESOTA. DRIER AIR HAS ERODED MOST OF
THE LOWEST CLOUDINESS ALREADY TODAY...REPLACED BY HIGHER MIXING
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD.  MANY OF THESE CLOUDS OVER THE MID AND EASTERN
CWA WILL BECOME FAIRLY PERISHABLE TONIGHT...MAKING FOR A GRADUAL
EAST TO WEST CLEARING WORKING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
SUNDAY. A BIT MOISTURE TRAJECTORY REMAINS THROUGH THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A BIT OF PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP LATE NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE CONTINUED DRYING AND EASTERLY
GRADIENT...SHOULD NOT BECOME ANY LARGE CONCERN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED.

THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE REASON
NOT TO EXPECT THAT IT WILL BECOME MORE DEEPLY MIXED AND LIKEWISE
TOWARD THE DRIER AND WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE IF RECENT LOCAL WET SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA CAN
OVERCOME THIS MIXING...AND KEEP DEWPOINT A BIT HIGHER...BUT AREA OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS CONSIDERABLY SMALL AND LARGER IMPACT SHOULD
BE MINIMAL.  SHOULD END UP WITH GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH TROUGHING BLOCKING FLOW TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTTING TO THE SOUTH...FAIRLY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL ABOUND IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PARKED OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WHILE MIXING IS
NOT IDEAL...DID TREND WARMER TOWARDS THE BIAS CORRECTED MODELS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. A WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY BUT LOOKS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED
AS TREKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN DRY WHILE
THE ECMWF AND GEM PAINT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
CORNER. DECIDED TO REMOVE POP MENTION IN TUNE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY...USHERING IN WARMER WEATHER AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
COULD SEE SOME FIRE DANGER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THIS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE REALIZED. WENT A
BIT PESSIMISTIC ON DEWPOINTS WHICH DROPS OUR RH RIGHT AROUND 30 TO
40 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AROUND THE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS IN A MORE ROBUST SLOW MOVING WAVE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE HIGHS IMPROVE INTO THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. AS CLOUDS CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG. THIS
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD HOWEVER. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS TURNING VARIABLE IN THE EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 260329
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1029 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SHEARING
DEPARTURE OF UPPER LOW TO SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF NARROW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL MAINTAIN A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO BACK THROUGH MINNESOTA. DRIER AIR HAS ERODED MOST OF
THE LOWEST CLOUDINESS ALREADY TODAY...REPLACED BY HIGHER MIXING
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD.  MANY OF THESE CLOUDS OVER THE MID AND EASTERN
CWA WILL BECOME FAIRLY PERISHABLE TONIGHT...MAKING FOR A GRADUAL
EAST TO WEST CLEARING WORKING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
SUNDAY. A BIT MOISTURE TRAJECTORY REMAINS THROUGH THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A BIT OF PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP LATE NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE CONTINUED DRYING AND EASTERLY
GRADIENT...SHOULD NOT BECOME ANY LARGE CONCERN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED.

THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE REASON
NOT TO EXPECT THAT IT WILL BECOME MORE DEEPLY MIXED AND LIKEWISE
TOWARD THE DRIER AND WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE IF RECENT LOCAL WET SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA CAN
OVERCOME THIS MIXING...AND KEEP DEWPOINT A BIT HIGHER...BUT AREA OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS CONSIDERABLY SMALL AND LARGER IMPACT SHOULD
BE MINIMAL.  SHOULD END UP WITH GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH TROUGHING BLOCKING FLOW TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTTING TO THE SOUTH...FAIRLY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL ABOUND IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PARKED OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WHILE MIXING IS
NOT IDEAL...DID TREND WARMER TOWARDS THE BIAS CORRECTED MODELS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. A WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY BUT LOOKS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED
AS TREKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN DRY WHILE
THE ECMWF AND GEM PAINT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
CORNER. DECIDED TO REMOVE POP MENTION IN TUNE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY...USHERING IN WARMER WEATHER AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
COULD SEE SOME FIRE DANGER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THIS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE REALIZED. WENT A
BIT PESSIMISTIC ON DEWPOINTS WHICH DROPS OUR RH RIGHT AROUND 30 TO
40 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AROUND THE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS IN A MORE ROBUST SLOW MOVING WAVE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE HIGHS IMPROVE INTO THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. AS CLOUDS CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG. THIS
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD HOWEVER. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS TURNING VARIABLE IN THE EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 260329
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1029 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SHEARING
DEPARTURE OF UPPER LOW TO SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF NARROW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL MAINTAIN A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO BACK THROUGH MINNESOTA. DRIER AIR HAS ERODED MOST OF
THE LOWEST CLOUDINESS ALREADY TODAY...REPLACED BY HIGHER MIXING
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD.  MANY OF THESE CLOUDS OVER THE MID AND EASTERN
CWA WILL BECOME FAIRLY PERISHABLE TONIGHT...MAKING FOR A GRADUAL
EAST TO WEST CLEARING WORKING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
SUNDAY. A BIT MOISTURE TRAJECTORY REMAINS THROUGH THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A BIT OF PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP LATE NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE CONTINUED DRYING AND EASTERLY
GRADIENT...SHOULD NOT BECOME ANY LARGE CONCERN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED.

THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE REASON
NOT TO EXPECT THAT IT WILL BECOME MORE DEEPLY MIXED AND LIKEWISE
TOWARD THE DRIER AND WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE IF RECENT LOCAL WET SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA CAN
OVERCOME THIS MIXING...AND KEEP DEWPOINT A BIT HIGHER...BUT AREA OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS CONSIDERABLY SMALL AND LARGER IMPACT SHOULD
BE MINIMAL.  SHOULD END UP WITH GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH TROUGHING BLOCKING FLOW TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTTING TO THE SOUTH...FAIRLY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL ABOUND IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PARKED OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WHILE MIXING IS
NOT IDEAL...DID TREND WARMER TOWARDS THE BIAS CORRECTED MODELS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. A WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY BUT LOOKS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED
AS TREKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN DRY WHILE
THE ECMWF AND GEM PAINT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
CORNER. DECIDED TO REMOVE POP MENTION IN TUNE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY...USHERING IN WARMER WEATHER AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
COULD SEE SOME FIRE DANGER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THIS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE REALIZED. WENT A
BIT PESSIMISTIC ON DEWPOINTS WHICH DROPS OUR RH RIGHT AROUND 30 TO
40 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AROUND THE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS IN A MORE ROBUST SLOW MOVING WAVE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE HIGHS IMPROVE INTO THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. AS CLOUDS CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG. THIS
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD HOWEVER. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS TURNING VARIABLE IN THE EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KABR 260133 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
833 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
CONVECTION GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OUT WEST. SOME CLEAR SPOTS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WAS
ALREADY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
OUR WEST RIVER COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES IN
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...WITH
SURFACE PRESSURES RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE SLOWLY
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FOG
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND WEST. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE CWA ALONG WITH WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
60S.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY TO WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS ALONG THE MAIN CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE. AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH INTO OUR CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN. THE MODELS ALL
INDICATE SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOW LESS AS IT
MOVES IN. HAVE IN SOME POPS AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THIS ALL DEPENDS
ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS IS WHEN
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION. 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE BOTH NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THESE WARM TEMPS ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S...TO THE
MID 80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND AFTER 0Z
SATURDAY...OR WHEN THE EML COOLS OFF.

THERE IS A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ECMWF SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. EITHER WAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

KABR/KATY SHOULD FAVOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY BUT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE LATE. KPIR/KMBG WILL
PROBABLY MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK









000
FXUS63 KABR 260133 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
833 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
CONVECTION GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OUT WEST. SOME CLEAR SPOTS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WAS
ALREADY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
OUR WEST RIVER COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES IN
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...WITH
SURFACE PRESSURES RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE SLOWLY
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FOG
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND WEST. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE CWA ALONG WITH WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
60S.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY TO WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS ALONG THE MAIN CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE. AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH INTO OUR CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN. THE MODELS ALL
INDICATE SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOW LESS AS IT
MOVES IN. HAVE IN SOME POPS AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THIS ALL DEPENDS
ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS IS WHEN
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION. 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE BOTH NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THESE WARM TEMPS ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S...TO THE
MID 80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND AFTER 0Z
SATURDAY...OR WHEN THE EML COOLS OFF.

THERE IS A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ECMWF SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. EITHER WAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

KABR/KATY SHOULD FAVOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY BUT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE LATE. KPIR/KMBG WILL
PROBABLY MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK









000
FXUS63 KABR 260133 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
833 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
CONVECTION GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OUT WEST. SOME CLEAR SPOTS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WAS
ALREADY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
OUR WEST RIVER COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES IN
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...WITH
SURFACE PRESSURES RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE SLOWLY
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FOG
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND WEST. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE CWA ALONG WITH WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
60S.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY TO WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS ALONG THE MAIN CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE. AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH INTO OUR CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN. THE MODELS ALL
INDICATE SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOW LESS AS IT
MOVES IN. HAVE IN SOME POPS AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THIS ALL DEPENDS
ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS IS WHEN
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION. 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE BOTH NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THESE WARM TEMPS ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S...TO THE
MID 80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND AFTER 0Z
SATURDAY...OR WHEN THE EML COOLS OFF.

THERE IS A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ECMWF SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. EITHER WAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

KABR/KATY SHOULD FAVOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY BUT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE LATE. KPIR/KMBG WILL
PROBABLY MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK









000
FXUS63 KABR 260133 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
833 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
CONVECTION GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OUT WEST. SOME CLEAR SPOTS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WAS
ALREADY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
OUR WEST RIVER COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES IN
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...WITH
SURFACE PRESSURES RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE SLOWLY
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FOG
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND WEST. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE CWA ALONG WITH WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
60S.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY TO WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS ALONG THE MAIN CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE. AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH INTO OUR CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN. THE MODELS ALL
INDICATE SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOW LESS AS IT
MOVES IN. HAVE IN SOME POPS AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THIS ALL DEPENDS
ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS IS WHEN
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION. 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE BOTH NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THESE WARM TEMPS ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S...TO THE
MID 80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND AFTER 0Z
SATURDAY...OR WHEN THE EML COOLS OFF.

THERE IS A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ECMWF SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. EITHER WAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

KABR/KATY SHOULD FAVOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY BUT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE LATE. KPIR/KMBG WILL
PROBABLY MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK









000
FXUS63 KABR 260133 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
833 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
CONVECTION GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OUT WEST. SOME CLEAR SPOTS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WAS
ALREADY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
OUR WEST RIVER COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES IN
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...WITH
SURFACE PRESSURES RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE SLOWLY
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FOG
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND WEST. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE CWA ALONG WITH WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
60S.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY TO WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS ALONG THE MAIN CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE. AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH INTO OUR CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN. THE MODELS ALL
INDICATE SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOW LESS AS IT
MOVES IN. HAVE IN SOME POPS AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THIS ALL DEPENDS
ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS IS WHEN
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION. 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE BOTH NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THESE WARM TEMPS ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S...TO THE
MID 80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND AFTER 0Z
SATURDAY...OR WHEN THE EML COOLS OFF.

THERE IS A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ECMWF SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. EITHER WAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

KABR/KATY SHOULD FAVOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY BUT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE LATE. KPIR/KMBG WILL
PROBABLY MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK








000
FXUS63 KABR 252317 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
617 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WAS
ALREADY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
OUR WEST RIVER COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES IN
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...WITH
SURFACE PRESSURES RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE SLOWLY
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FOG
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND WEST. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE CWA ALONG WITH WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
60S.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY TO WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS ALONG THE MAIN CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE. AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH INTO OUR CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN. THE MODELS ALL
INDICATE SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOW LESS AS IT
MOVES IN. HAVE IN SOME POPS AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THIS ALL DEPENDS
ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS IS WHEN
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION. 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE BOTH NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THESE WARM TEMPS ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S...TO THE
MID 80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND AFTER 0Z
SATURDAY...OR WHEN THE EML COOLS OFF.

THERE IS A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ECMWF SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. EITHER WAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

KABR/KATY SHOULD FAVOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY BUT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE LATE. KPIR/KMBG WILL
PROBABLY MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK








000
FXUS63 KABR 252317 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
617 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WAS
ALREADY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
OUR WEST RIVER COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES IN
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...WITH
SURFACE PRESSURES RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE SLOWLY
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FOG
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND WEST. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE CWA ALONG WITH WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
60S.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY TO WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS ALONG THE MAIN CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE. AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH INTO OUR CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN. THE MODELS ALL
INDICATE SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOW LESS AS IT
MOVES IN. HAVE IN SOME POPS AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THIS ALL DEPENDS
ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS IS WHEN
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION. 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE BOTH NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THESE WARM TEMPS ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S...TO THE
MID 80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND AFTER 0Z
SATURDAY...OR WHEN THE EML COOLS OFF.

THERE IS A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ECMWF SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. EITHER WAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

KABR/KATY SHOULD FAVOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY BUT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE LATE. KPIR/KMBG WILL
PROBABLY MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK







000
FXUS63 KABR 252317 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
617 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WAS
ALREADY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
OUR WEST RIVER COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES IN
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...WITH
SURFACE PRESSURES RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE SLOWLY
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FOG
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND WEST. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE CWA ALONG WITH WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
60S.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY TO WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS ALONG THE MAIN CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE. AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH INTO OUR CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN. THE MODELS ALL
INDICATE SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOW LESS AS IT
MOVES IN. HAVE IN SOME POPS AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THIS ALL DEPENDS
ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS IS WHEN
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION. 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE BOTH NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THESE WARM TEMPS ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S...TO THE
MID 80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND AFTER 0Z
SATURDAY...OR WHEN THE EML COOLS OFF.

THERE IS A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ECMWF SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. EITHER WAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

KABR/KATY SHOULD FAVOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY BUT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE LATE. KPIR/KMBG WILL
PROBABLY MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK








000
FXUS63 KABR 252317 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
617 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WAS
ALREADY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
OUR WEST RIVER COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES IN
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...WITH
SURFACE PRESSURES RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE SLOWLY
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FOG
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND WEST. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE CWA ALONG WITH WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
60S.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY TO WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS ALONG THE MAIN CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE. AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH INTO OUR CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN. THE MODELS ALL
INDICATE SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOW LESS AS IT
MOVES IN. HAVE IN SOME POPS AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THIS ALL DEPENDS
ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS IS WHEN
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION. 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE BOTH NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THESE WARM TEMPS ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S...TO THE
MID 80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND AFTER 0Z
SATURDAY...OR WHEN THE EML COOLS OFF.

THERE IS A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ECMWF SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. EITHER WAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

KABR/KATY SHOULD FAVOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY BUT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE LATE. KPIR/KMBG WILL
PROBABLY MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK







000
FXUS63 KUNR 252303
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
503 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH COLD FRONT BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY...AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IL...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
SOUTHWEST SD. A COUPLE OF CELLS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE PRODUCING
SOME SMALL HAIL. OTHER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SD TO AROUND 60 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SD
AND NORTHEAST WY.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF
MAIN PCPN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF WEST COAST
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
ONE DISTURBANCE IS ACROSS EASTERN WY NOW...WITH ANOTHER ONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT. THE BEST CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CALLS FOR
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF CLOSE TO A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EVENING.

FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD. THE HEAVIER PCPN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS...80+ PERCENT...OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS REMAINING AS RAIN
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY MIX IN THE
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

AS DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL STILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS NARROWING RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. RAISED POPS TO 80+ FOR THESE AREAS.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS RATHER LOW ON SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY AS NRN STREAM TROF AXIS
CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY TO MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS.
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH WELL THROUGH THE 70S...AND
INTO THE 80S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 502 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS OVER MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PCPN BECOMING MORE WDSPRD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED NEAR HEAVIER PCPN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 252303
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
503 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH COLD FRONT BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY...AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IL...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
SOUTHWEST SD. A COUPLE OF CELLS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE PRODUCING
SOME SMALL HAIL. OTHER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SD TO AROUND 60 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SD
AND NORTHEAST WY.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF
MAIN PCPN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF WEST COAST
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
ONE DISTURBANCE IS ACROSS EASTERN WY NOW...WITH ANOTHER ONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT. THE BEST CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CALLS FOR
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF CLOSE TO A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EVENING.

FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD. THE HEAVIER PCPN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS...80+ PERCENT...OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS REMAINING AS RAIN
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY MIX IN THE
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

AS DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL STILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS NARROWING RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. RAISED POPS TO 80+ FOR THESE AREAS.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS RATHER LOW ON SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY AS NRN STREAM TROF AXIS
CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY TO MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS.
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH WELL THROUGH THE 70S...AND
INTO THE 80S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 502 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS OVER MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PCPN BECOMING MORE WDSPRD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED NEAR HEAVIER PCPN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 252303
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
503 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH COLD FRONT BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY...AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IL...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
SOUTHWEST SD. A COUPLE OF CELLS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE PRODUCING
SOME SMALL HAIL. OTHER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SD TO AROUND 60 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SD
AND NORTHEAST WY.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF
MAIN PCPN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF WEST COAST
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
ONE DISTURBANCE IS ACROSS EASTERN WY NOW...WITH ANOTHER ONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT. THE BEST CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CALLS FOR
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF CLOSE TO A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EVENING.

FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD. THE HEAVIER PCPN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS...80+ PERCENT...OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS REMAINING AS RAIN
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY MIX IN THE
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

AS DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL STILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS NARROWING RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. RAISED POPS TO 80+ FOR THESE AREAS.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS RATHER LOW ON SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY AS NRN STREAM TROF AXIS
CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY TO MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS.
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH WELL THROUGH THE 70S...AND
INTO THE 80S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 502 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS OVER MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PCPN BECOMING MORE WDSPRD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED NEAR HEAVIER PCPN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 252303
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
503 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH COLD FRONT BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY...AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IL...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
SOUTHWEST SD. A COUPLE OF CELLS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE PRODUCING
SOME SMALL HAIL. OTHER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SD TO AROUND 60 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SD
AND NORTHEAST WY.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF
MAIN PCPN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF WEST COAST
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
ONE DISTURBANCE IS ACROSS EASTERN WY NOW...WITH ANOTHER ONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT. THE BEST CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CALLS FOR
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF CLOSE TO A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EVENING.

FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD. THE HEAVIER PCPN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS...80+ PERCENT...OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS REMAINING AS RAIN
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY MIX IN THE
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

AS DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL STILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS NARROWING RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. RAISED POPS TO 80+ FOR THESE AREAS.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS RATHER LOW ON SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY AS NRN STREAM TROF AXIS
CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY TO MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS.
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH WELL THROUGH THE 70S...AND
INTO THE 80S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 502 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS OVER MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PCPN BECOMING MORE WDSPRD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED NEAR HEAVIER PCPN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KFSD 252255
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
555 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SHEARING
DEPARTURE OF UPPER LOW TO SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF NARROW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL MAINTAIN A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO BACK THROUGH MINNESOTA. DRIER AIR HAS ERODED MOST OF
THE LOWEST CLOUDINESS ALREADY TODAY...REPLACED BY HIGHER MIXING
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD.  MANY OF THESE CLOUDS OVER THE MID AND EASTERN
CWA WILL BECOME FAIRLY PERISHABLE TONIGHT...MAKING FOR A GRADUAL
EAST TO WEST CLEARING WORKING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
SUNDAY. A BIT MOISTURE TRAJECTORY REMAINS THROUGH THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A BIT OF PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP LATE NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE CONTINUED DRYING AND EASTERLY
GRADIENT...SHOULD NOT BECOME ANY LARGE CONCERN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED.

THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE REASON
NOT TO EXPECT THAT IT WILL BECOME MORE DEEPLY MIXED AND LIKEWISE
TOWARD THE DRIER AND WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE IF RECENT LOCAL WET SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA CAN
OVERCOME THIS MIXING...AND KEEP DEWPOINT A BIT HIGHER...BUT AREA OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS CONSIDERABLY SMALL AND LARGER IMPACT SHOULD
BE MINIMAL.  SHOULD END UP WITH GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH TROUGHING BLOCKING FLOW TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTTING TO THE SOUTH...FAIRLY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL ABOUND IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PARKED OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WHILE MIXING IS
NOT IDEAL...DID TREND WARMER TOWARDS THE BIAS CORRECTED MODELS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. A WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY BUT LOOKS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED
AS TREKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN DRY WHILE
THE ECMWF AND GEM PAINT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
CORNER. DECIDED TO REMOVE POP MENTION IN TUNE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY...USHERING IN WARMER WEATHER AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
COULD SEE SOME FIRE DANGER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THIS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE REALIZED. WENT A
BIT PESSIMISTIC ON DEWPOINTS WHICH DROPS OUR RH RIGHT AROUND 30 TO
40 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AROUND THE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS IN A MORE ROBUST SLOW MOVING WAVE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE HIGHS IMPROVE INTO THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW LVL DECK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 252255
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
555 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SHEARING
DEPARTURE OF UPPER LOW TO SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF NARROW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL MAINTAIN A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO BACK THROUGH MINNESOTA. DRIER AIR HAS ERODED MOST OF
THE LOWEST CLOUDINESS ALREADY TODAY...REPLACED BY HIGHER MIXING
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD.  MANY OF THESE CLOUDS OVER THE MID AND EASTERN
CWA WILL BECOME FAIRLY PERISHABLE TONIGHT...MAKING FOR A GRADUAL
EAST TO WEST CLEARING WORKING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
SUNDAY. A BIT MOISTURE TRAJECTORY REMAINS THROUGH THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A BIT OF PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP LATE NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE CONTINUED DRYING AND EASTERLY
GRADIENT...SHOULD NOT BECOME ANY LARGE CONCERN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED.

THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE REASON
NOT TO EXPECT THAT IT WILL BECOME MORE DEEPLY MIXED AND LIKEWISE
TOWARD THE DRIER AND WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE IF RECENT LOCAL WET SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA CAN
OVERCOME THIS MIXING...AND KEEP DEWPOINT A BIT HIGHER...BUT AREA OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS CONSIDERABLY SMALL AND LARGER IMPACT SHOULD
BE MINIMAL.  SHOULD END UP WITH GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH TROUGHING BLOCKING FLOW TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTTING TO THE SOUTH...FAIRLY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL ABOUND IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PARKED OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WHILE MIXING IS
NOT IDEAL...DID TREND WARMER TOWARDS THE BIAS CORRECTED MODELS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. A WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY BUT LOOKS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED
AS TREKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN DRY WHILE
THE ECMWF AND GEM PAINT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
CORNER. DECIDED TO REMOVE POP MENTION IN TUNE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY...USHERING IN WARMER WEATHER AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
COULD SEE SOME FIRE DANGER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THIS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE REALIZED. WENT A
BIT PESSIMISTIC ON DEWPOINTS WHICH DROPS OUR RH RIGHT AROUND 30 TO
40 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AROUND THE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS IN A MORE ROBUST SLOW MOVING WAVE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE HIGHS IMPROVE INTO THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW LVL DECK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 252255
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
555 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SHEARING
DEPARTURE OF UPPER LOW TO SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF NARROW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL MAINTAIN A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO BACK THROUGH MINNESOTA. DRIER AIR HAS ERODED MOST OF
THE LOWEST CLOUDINESS ALREADY TODAY...REPLACED BY HIGHER MIXING
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD.  MANY OF THESE CLOUDS OVER THE MID AND EASTERN
CWA WILL BECOME FAIRLY PERISHABLE TONIGHT...MAKING FOR A GRADUAL
EAST TO WEST CLEARING WORKING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
SUNDAY. A BIT MOISTURE TRAJECTORY REMAINS THROUGH THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A BIT OF PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP LATE NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE CONTINUED DRYING AND EASTERLY
GRADIENT...SHOULD NOT BECOME ANY LARGE CONCERN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED.

THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE REASON
NOT TO EXPECT THAT IT WILL BECOME MORE DEEPLY MIXED AND LIKEWISE
TOWARD THE DRIER AND WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE IF RECENT LOCAL WET SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA CAN
OVERCOME THIS MIXING...AND KEEP DEWPOINT A BIT HIGHER...BUT AREA OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS CONSIDERABLY SMALL AND LARGER IMPACT SHOULD
BE MINIMAL.  SHOULD END UP WITH GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH TROUGHING BLOCKING FLOW TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTTING TO THE SOUTH...FAIRLY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL ABOUND IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PARKED OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WHILE MIXING IS
NOT IDEAL...DID TREND WARMER TOWARDS THE BIAS CORRECTED MODELS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. A WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY BUT LOOKS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED
AS TREKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN DRY WHILE
THE ECMWF AND GEM PAINT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
CORNER. DECIDED TO REMOVE POP MENTION IN TUNE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY...USHERING IN WARMER WEATHER AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
COULD SEE SOME FIRE DANGER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THIS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE REALIZED. WENT A
BIT PESSIMISTIC ON DEWPOINTS WHICH DROPS OUR RH RIGHT AROUND 30 TO
40 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AROUND THE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS IN A MORE ROBUST SLOW MOVING WAVE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE HIGHS IMPROVE INTO THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW LVL DECK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KUNR 252107
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
307 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH COLD FRONT BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY...AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IL...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
SOUTHWEST SD. A COUPLE OF CELLS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE PRODUCING
SOME SMALL HAIL. OTHER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SD TO AROUND 60 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SD
AND NORTHEAST WY.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF
MAIN PCPN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF WEST COAST
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
ONE DISTURBANCE IS ACROSS EASTERN WY NOW...WITH ANOTHER ONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT. THE BEST CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CALLS FOR
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF CLOSE TO A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EVENING.

FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD. THE HEAVIER PCPN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS...80+ PERCENT...OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS REMAINING AS RAIN
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY MIX IN THE
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

AS DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL STILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS NARROWING RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. RAISED POPS TO 80+ FOR THESE AREAS.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS RATHER LOW ON SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY AS NRN STREAM TROF AXIS
CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY TO MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS.
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH WELL THROUGH THE 70S...AND
INTO THE 80S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR STRATUS OVER MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PCPN BECOMING MORE WDSPRD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED NEAR HEAVIER PCPN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 252107
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
307 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH COLD FRONT BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY...AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IL...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
SOUTHWEST SD. A COUPLE OF CELLS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE PRODUCING
SOME SMALL HAIL. OTHER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SD TO AROUND 60 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SD
AND NORTHEAST WY.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF
MAIN PCPN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF WEST COAST
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
ONE DISTURBANCE IS ACROSS EASTERN WY NOW...WITH ANOTHER ONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT. THE BEST CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CALLS FOR
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF CLOSE TO A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EVENING.

FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD. THE HEAVIER PCPN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS...80+ PERCENT...OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS REMAINING AS RAIN
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY MIX IN THE
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

AS DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL STILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS NARROWING RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. RAISED POPS TO 80+ FOR THESE AREAS.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS RATHER LOW ON SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY AS NRN STREAM TROF AXIS
CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY TO MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS.
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH WELL THROUGH THE 70S...AND
INTO THE 80S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR STRATUS OVER MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PCPN BECOMING MORE WDSPRD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED NEAR HEAVIER PCPN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 252107
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
307 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH COLD FRONT BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY...AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IL...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
SOUTHWEST SD. A COUPLE OF CELLS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE PRODUCING
SOME SMALL HAIL. OTHER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SD TO AROUND 60 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SD
AND NORTHEAST WY.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF
MAIN PCPN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF WEST COAST
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
ONE DISTURBANCE IS ACROSS EASTERN WY NOW...WITH ANOTHER ONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT. THE BEST CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CALLS FOR
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF CLOSE TO A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EVENING.

FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD. THE HEAVIER PCPN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS...80+ PERCENT...OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS REMAINING AS RAIN
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY MIX IN THE
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

AS DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL STILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS NARROWING RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. RAISED POPS TO 80+ FOR THESE AREAS.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS RATHER LOW ON SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY AS NRN STREAM TROF AXIS
CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY TO MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS.
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH WELL THROUGH THE 70S...AND
INTO THE 80S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR STRATUS OVER MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PCPN BECOMING MORE WDSPRD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED NEAR HEAVIER PCPN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 252107
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
307 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH COLD FRONT BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY...AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IL...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
SOUTHWEST SD. A COUPLE OF CELLS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE PRODUCING
SOME SMALL HAIL. OTHER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SD TO AROUND 60 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SD
AND NORTHEAST WY.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF
MAIN PCPN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF WEST COAST
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
ONE DISTURBANCE IS ACROSS EASTERN WY NOW...WITH ANOTHER ONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT. THE BEST CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CALLS FOR
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF CLOSE TO A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EVENING.

FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD. THE HEAVIER PCPN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS...80+ PERCENT...OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS REMAINING AS RAIN
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY MIX IN THE
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

AS DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL STILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS NARROWING RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. RAISED POPS TO 80+ FOR THESE AREAS.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS RATHER LOW ON SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY AS NRN STREAM TROF AXIS
CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY TO MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS.
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH WELL THROUGH THE 70S...AND
INTO THE 80S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR STRATUS OVER MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PCPN BECOMING MORE WDSPRD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED NEAR HEAVIER PCPN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KABR 252033
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WAS
ALREADY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
OUR WEST RIVER COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES IN
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...WITH
SURFACE PRESSURES RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE SLOWLY
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FOG
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND WEST. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE CWA ALONG WITH WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
60S.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY TO WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS ALONG THE MAIN CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE. AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH INTO OUR CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN. THE MODELS ALL
INDICATE SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOW LESS AS IT
MOVES IN. HAVE IN SOME POPS AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE NORTH.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THIS ALL DEPENDS
ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS IS WHEN
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION. 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE BOTH NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THESE WARM TEMPS ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S...TO THE
MID 80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND AFTER 0Z
SATURDAY...OR WHEN THE EML COOLS OFF.

THERE IS A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ECMWF SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. EITHER WAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN IFR/LOW END MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN
IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL
TERMINALS. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE MID
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY FOR THE TERMINALS OF KMBG/KPIR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD






000
FXUS63 KABR 252033
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WAS
ALREADY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
OUR WEST RIVER COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES IN
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...WITH
SURFACE PRESSURES RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE SLOWLY
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FOG
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND WEST. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE CWA ALONG WITH WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
60S.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY TO WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS ALONG THE MAIN CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE. AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH INTO OUR CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN. THE MODELS ALL
INDICATE SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOW LESS AS IT
MOVES IN. HAVE IN SOME POPS AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE NORTH.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THIS ALL DEPENDS
ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS IS WHEN
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION. 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE BOTH NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THESE WARM TEMPS ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S...TO THE
MID 80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND AFTER 0Z
SATURDAY...OR WHEN THE EML COOLS OFF.

THERE IS A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ECMWF SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. EITHER WAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN IFR/LOW END MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN
IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL
TERMINALS. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE MID
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY FOR THE TERMINALS OF KMBG/KPIR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD






000
FXUS63 KABR 252033
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WAS
ALREADY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
OUR WEST RIVER COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES IN
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...WITH
SURFACE PRESSURES RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE SLOWLY
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FOG
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND WEST. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE CWA ALONG WITH WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
60S.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY TO WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS ALONG THE MAIN CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE. AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH INTO OUR CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN. THE MODELS ALL
INDICATE SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOW LESS AS IT
MOVES IN. HAVE IN SOME POPS AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE NORTH.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THIS ALL DEPENDS
ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS IS WHEN
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION. 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE BOTH NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THESE WARM TEMPS ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S...TO THE
MID 80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND AFTER 0Z
SATURDAY...OR WHEN THE EML COOLS OFF.

THERE IS A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ECMWF SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. EITHER WAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN IFR/LOW END MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN
IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL
TERMINALS. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE MID
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY FOR THE TERMINALS OF KMBG/KPIR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD






000
FXUS63 KABR 252033
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WAS
ALREADY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
OUR WEST RIVER COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES IN
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...WITH
SURFACE PRESSURES RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE SLOWLY
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FOG
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND WEST. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE CWA ALONG WITH WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
60S.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY TO WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS ALONG THE MAIN CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE. AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH INTO OUR CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN. THE MODELS ALL
INDICATE SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOW LESS AS IT
MOVES IN. HAVE IN SOME POPS AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE NORTH.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THIS ALL DEPENDS
ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS IS WHEN
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION. 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE BOTH NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THESE WARM TEMPS ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S...TO THE
MID 80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND AFTER 0Z
SATURDAY...OR WHEN THE EML COOLS OFF.

THERE IS A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ECMWF SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. EITHER WAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN IFR/LOW END MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN
IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL
TERMINALS. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE MID
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY FOR THE TERMINALS OF KMBG/KPIR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD






000
FXUS63 KABR 252033
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WAS
ALREADY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
OUR WEST RIVER COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES IN
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...WITH
SURFACE PRESSURES RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE SLOWLY
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FOG
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND WEST. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE CWA ALONG WITH WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
60S.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY TO WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS ALONG THE MAIN CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE. AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH INTO OUR CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN. THE MODELS ALL
INDICATE SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOW LESS AS IT
MOVES IN. HAVE IN SOME POPS AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE NORTH.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THIS ALL DEPENDS
ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS IS WHEN
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION. 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE BOTH NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THESE WARM TEMPS ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S...TO THE
MID 80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND AFTER 0Z
SATURDAY...OR WHEN THE EML COOLS OFF.

THERE IS A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ECMWF SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. EITHER WAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN IFR/LOW END MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN
IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL
TERMINALS. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE MID
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY FOR THE TERMINALS OF KMBG/KPIR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD






000
FXUS63 KABR 252033
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WAS
ALREADY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
OUR WEST RIVER COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES IN
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...WITH
SURFACE PRESSURES RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE SLOWLY
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FOG
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND WEST. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE CWA ALONG WITH WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
60S.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY TO WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS ALONG THE MAIN CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE. AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH INTO OUR CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN. THE MODELS ALL
INDICATE SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOW LESS AS IT
MOVES IN. HAVE IN SOME POPS AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE NORTH.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THIS ALL DEPENDS
ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS IS WHEN
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION. 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE BOTH NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THESE WARM TEMPS ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S...TO THE
MID 80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND AFTER 0Z
SATURDAY...OR WHEN THE EML COOLS OFF.

THERE IS A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ECMWF SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. EITHER WAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN IFR/LOW END MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN
IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL
TERMINALS. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE MID
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY FOR THE TERMINALS OF KMBG/KPIR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD







000
FXUS63 KFSD 252028
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SHEARING
DEPARTURE OF UPPER LOW TO SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF NARROW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL MAINTAIN A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO BACK THROUGH MINNESOTA. DRIER AIR HAS ERODED MOST OF
THE LOWEST CLOUDINESS ALREADY TODAY...REPLACED BY HIGHER MIXING
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD.  MANY OF THESE CLOUDS OVER THE MID AND EASTERN
CWA WILL BECOME FAIRLY PERISHABLE TONIGHT...MAKING FOR A GRADUAL
EAST TO WEST CLEARING WORKING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
SUNDAY. A BIT MOISTURE TRAJECTORY REMAINS THROUGH THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A BIT OF PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP LATE NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE CONTINUED DRYING AND EASTERLY
GRADIENT...SHOULD NOT BECOME ANY LARGE CONCERN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED.

THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE REASON
NOT TO EXPECT THAT IT WILL BECOME MORE DEEPLY MIXED AND LIKEWISE
TOWARD THE DRIER AND WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE IF RECENT LOCAL WET SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA CAN
OVERCOME THIS MIXING...AND KEEP DEWPOINT A BIT HIGHER...BUT AREA OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS CONSIDERABLY SMALL AND LARGER IMPACT SHOULD
BE MINIMAL.  SHOULD END UP WITH GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH TROUGHING BLOCKING FLOW TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTTING TO THE SOUTH...FAIRLY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL ABOUND IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PARKED OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WHILE MIXING IS
NOT IDEAL...DID TREND WARMER TOWARDS THE BIAS CORRECTED MODELS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. A WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY BUT LOOKS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED
AS TREKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN DRY WHILE
THE ECMWF AND GEM PAINT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
CORNER. DECIDED TO REMOVE POP MENTION IN TUNE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY...USHERING IN WARMER WEATHER AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
COULD SEE SOME FIRE DANGER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THIS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE REALIZED. WENT A
BIT PESSIMISTIC ON DEWPOINTS WHICH DROPS OUR RH RIGHT AROUND 30 TO
40 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AROUND THE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS IN A MORE ROBUST SLOW MOVING WAVE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE HIGHS IMPROVE INTO THE 70S AND 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BACKED INTO THE JAMES VALLEY...AND CONTINUED
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
THESE CLOUDS WESTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD TURN UP VFR. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY TO IF A
LITTLE FOG MAY FORM THROUGH THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD ONLY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR TYPE VISIBILITY IF IT DOES DEVELOP.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN



000
FXUS63 KFSD 252028
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SHEARING
DEPARTURE OF UPPER LOW TO SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF NARROW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL MAINTAIN A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO BACK THROUGH MINNESOTA. DRIER AIR HAS ERODED MOST OF
THE LOWEST CLOUDINESS ALREADY TODAY...REPLACED BY HIGHER MIXING
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD.  MANY OF THESE CLOUDS OVER THE MID AND EASTERN
CWA WILL BECOME FAIRLY PERISHABLE TONIGHT...MAKING FOR A GRADUAL
EAST TO WEST CLEARING WORKING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
SUNDAY. A BIT MOISTURE TRAJECTORY REMAINS THROUGH THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A BIT OF PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP LATE NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE CONTINUED DRYING AND EASTERLY
GRADIENT...SHOULD NOT BECOME ANY LARGE CONCERN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED.

THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE REASON
NOT TO EXPECT THAT IT WILL BECOME MORE DEEPLY MIXED AND LIKEWISE
TOWARD THE DRIER AND WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE IF RECENT LOCAL WET SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA CAN
OVERCOME THIS MIXING...AND KEEP DEWPOINT A BIT HIGHER...BUT AREA OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS CONSIDERABLY SMALL AND LARGER IMPACT SHOULD
BE MINIMAL.  SHOULD END UP WITH GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH TROUGHING BLOCKING FLOW TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTTING TO THE SOUTH...FAIRLY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL ABOUND IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PARKED OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WHILE MIXING IS
NOT IDEAL...DID TREND WARMER TOWARDS THE BIAS CORRECTED MODELS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. A WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY BUT LOOKS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED
AS TREKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN DRY WHILE
THE ECMWF AND GEM PAINT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
CORNER. DECIDED TO REMOVE POP MENTION IN TUNE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY...USHERING IN WARMER WEATHER AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
COULD SEE SOME FIRE DANGER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THIS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE REALIZED. WENT A
BIT PESSIMISTIC ON DEWPOINTS WHICH DROPS OUR RH RIGHT AROUND 30 TO
40 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AROUND THE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS IN A MORE ROBUST SLOW MOVING WAVE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE HIGHS IMPROVE INTO THE 70S AND 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BACKED INTO THE JAMES VALLEY...AND CONTINUED
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
THESE CLOUDS WESTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD TURN UP VFR. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY TO IF A
LITTLE FOG MAY FORM THROUGH THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD ONLY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR TYPE VISIBILITY IF IT DOES DEVELOP.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251750
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1250 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY CONTINUING TO SPIN AWAY
FROM THE AREA...WITH AREA IN DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW SHOWERS IN WEAK LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE WANDERING EVER SO SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID JAMES
VALLEY. OVERALL...COVERAGE TENDENCY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
GOING TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING OF SHALLOW FORCING AND
TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE...AS WELL AS INCREASING IMPACT OF DRYING
IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH HAS BEEN ERODING A WEDGE ALONG INTERSTATE 90
FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TOWARD THE KFSD AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST
TO ERODE FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA...AND MAY YIELD JUST A BIT
COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR LOWER BRULE TOWARD KHON LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BACKED INTO THE JAMES VALLEY...AND CONTINUED
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
THESE CLOUDS WESTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD TURN UP VFR. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY TO IF A
LITTLE FOG MAY FORM THROUGH THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD ONLY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR TYPE VISIBILITY IF IT DOES DEVELOP.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN



000
FXUS63 KFSD 251750
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1250 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY CONTINUING TO SPIN AWAY
FROM THE AREA...WITH AREA IN DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW SHOWERS IN WEAK LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE WANDERING EVER SO SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID JAMES
VALLEY. OVERALL...COVERAGE TENDENCY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
GOING TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING OF SHALLOW FORCING AND
TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE...AS WELL AS INCREASING IMPACT OF DRYING
IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH HAS BEEN ERODING A WEDGE ALONG INTERSTATE 90
FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TOWARD THE KFSD AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST
TO ERODE FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA...AND MAY YIELD JUST A BIT
COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR LOWER BRULE TOWARD KHON LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BACKED INTO THE JAMES VALLEY...AND CONTINUED
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
THESE CLOUDS WESTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD TURN UP VFR. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY TO IF A
LITTLE FOG MAY FORM THROUGH THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD ONLY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR TYPE VISIBILITY IF IT DOES DEVELOP.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251750
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1250 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY CONTINUING TO SPIN AWAY
FROM THE AREA...WITH AREA IN DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW SHOWERS IN WEAK LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE WANDERING EVER SO SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID JAMES
VALLEY. OVERALL...COVERAGE TENDENCY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
GOING TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING OF SHALLOW FORCING AND
TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE...AS WELL AS INCREASING IMPACT OF DRYING
IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH HAS BEEN ERODING A WEDGE ALONG INTERSTATE 90
FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TOWARD THE KFSD AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST
TO ERODE FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA...AND MAY YIELD JUST A BIT
COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR LOWER BRULE TOWARD KHON LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BACKED INTO THE JAMES VALLEY...AND CONTINUED
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
THESE CLOUDS WESTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD TURN UP VFR. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY TO IF A
LITTLE FOG MAY FORM THROUGH THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD ONLY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR TYPE VISIBILITY IF IT DOES DEVELOP.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251750
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1250 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY CONTINUING TO SPIN AWAY
FROM THE AREA...WITH AREA IN DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW SHOWERS IN WEAK LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE WANDERING EVER SO SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID JAMES
VALLEY. OVERALL...COVERAGE TENDENCY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
GOING TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING OF SHALLOW FORCING AND
TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE...AS WELL AS INCREASING IMPACT OF DRYING
IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH HAS BEEN ERODING A WEDGE ALONG INTERSTATE 90
FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TOWARD THE KFSD AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST
TO ERODE FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA...AND MAY YIELD JUST A BIT
COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR LOWER BRULE TOWARD KHON LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BACKED INTO THE JAMES VALLEY...AND CONTINUED
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
THESE CLOUDS WESTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD TURN UP VFR. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY TO IF A
LITTLE FOG MAY FORM THROUGH THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD ONLY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR TYPE VISIBILITY IF IT DOES DEVELOP.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251750
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1250 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY CONTINUING TO SPIN AWAY
FROM THE AREA...WITH AREA IN DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW SHOWERS IN WEAK LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE WANDERING EVER SO SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID JAMES
VALLEY. OVERALL...COVERAGE TENDENCY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
GOING TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING OF SHALLOW FORCING AND
TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE...AS WELL AS INCREASING IMPACT OF DRYING
IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH HAS BEEN ERODING A WEDGE ALONG INTERSTATE 90
FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TOWARD THE KFSD AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST
TO ERODE FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA...AND MAY YIELD JUST A BIT
COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR LOWER BRULE TOWARD KHON LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BACKED INTO THE JAMES VALLEY...AND CONTINUED
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
THESE CLOUDS WESTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD TURN UP VFR. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY TO IF A
LITTLE FOG MAY FORM THROUGH THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD ONLY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR TYPE VISIBILITY IF IT DOES DEVELOP.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251750
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1250 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY CONTINUING TO SPIN AWAY
FROM THE AREA...WITH AREA IN DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW SHOWERS IN WEAK LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE WANDERING EVER SO SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID JAMES
VALLEY. OVERALL...COVERAGE TENDENCY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
GOING TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING OF SHALLOW FORCING AND
TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE...AS WELL AS INCREASING IMPACT OF DRYING
IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH HAS BEEN ERODING A WEDGE ALONG INTERSTATE 90
FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TOWARD THE KFSD AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST
TO ERODE FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA...AND MAY YIELD JUST A BIT
COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR LOWER BRULE TOWARD KHON LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BACKED INTO THE JAMES VALLEY...AND CONTINUED
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
THESE CLOUDS WESTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD TURN UP VFR. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY TO IF A
LITTLE FOG MAY FORM THROUGH THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD ONLY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR TYPE VISIBILITY IF IT DOES DEVELOP.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KABR 251736 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1236 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE CWA WAS COVERED BY LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE CEILING
HEIGHTS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH MAYBE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON. TOOK OUT POPS ACROSS THE WEST
ALSO FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WOBBLES AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DUE TO THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA IS LIKELY TO
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...AND BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER WEST. THE RESULT
APPEARS TO BE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...AND CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WEST. IT ISNT UNTIL MONDAY THAT THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA...ALTHOUGH QPF AT THIS POINT LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM
BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS MAY TOP OUT NEAR 80 BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN IFR/LOW END MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN
IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL
TERMINALS. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE MID
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY FOR THE TERMINALS OF KMBG/KPIR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SD




000
FXUS63 KABR 251736 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1236 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE CWA WAS COVERED BY LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE CEILING
HEIGHTS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH MAYBE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON. TOOK OUT POPS ACROSS THE WEST
ALSO FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WOBBLES AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DUE TO THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA IS LIKELY TO
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...AND BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER WEST. THE RESULT
APPEARS TO BE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...AND CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WEST. IT ISNT UNTIL MONDAY THAT THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA...ALTHOUGH QPF AT THIS POINT LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM
BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS MAY TOP OUT NEAR 80 BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN IFR/LOW END MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN
IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL
TERMINALS. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE MID
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY FOR THE TERMINALS OF KMBG/KPIR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SD





000
FXUS63 KABR 251736 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1236 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE CWA WAS COVERED BY LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE CEILING
HEIGHTS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH MAYBE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON. TOOK OUT POPS ACROSS THE WEST
ALSO FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WOBBLES AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DUE TO THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA IS LIKELY TO
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...AND BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER WEST. THE RESULT
APPEARS TO BE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...AND CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WEST. IT ISNT UNTIL MONDAY THAT THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA...ALTHOUGH QPF AT THIS POINT LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM
BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS MAY TOP OUT NEAR 80 BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN IFR/LOW END MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN
IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL
TERMINALS. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE MID
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY FOR THE TERMINALS OF KMBG/KPIR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SD




000
FXUS63 KUNR 251706
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1106 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MO...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST
FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...BUT A NARROW AREA OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IS IN
PLACE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD FOR THE TIME BEING.
EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS HAS BACKED WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS...WITH AREAS OF FOG STILL LINGERING...
THOUGH VISIBILITIES ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WY...EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO MT...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPS AT 15Z RANGED FROM THE
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES OVER THE SD PLAINS...TO 50S OVER A GOOD
CHUNK OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND OR FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE
ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE THE EARLIEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...
THAT WILL HELP TO FUEL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES
STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATED
TO GET A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WITH SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD.

HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
SD PLAINS...WHERE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS...MOSTLY TO LOWER THEM A BIT AND PUSH
OFF THE TIMING TO LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. OTHER TWEAKS WERE MADE TO SKY
COVER..DEW POINTS...AND RH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH CLOSED LOW UNDER THE RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ADDITIONAL
CLOSED LOW IS SPINNING OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WITH TROF EXTENDING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. SKIES ARE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO NEBRASKA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS
NORTH FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM ARE MAINLY
IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

FOR TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE IN
WYOMING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND ELONGATE INTO AN INVERTED TROF
ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING/DAKOTAS STATE LINES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES LIFT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF AND CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
BLACK HILLS. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES...BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LOOK TO BE IN THE QUARTER INCH TO HALF AN INCH RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...WESTERN UPPER TROF SHIFTS EAST AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE TROF AND CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
INVERTED SURFACE TROF ALSO REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTH DAKOTA. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH TO HALF AN INCH LOOKS
LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
WHERE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LESS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S. NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER CLOSED-LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
MONDAY...BUT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BRINGING ONCE LAST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES FROM TIME TO TIME. LEE TROUGH
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE TROUGH
INTERSECTS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR/LIFR VSBYS ACROSS FAR WRN SD WILL IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR EARLY
THIS AFTN...WHILE IFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD.
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 251706
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1106 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MO...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST
FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...BUT A NARROW AREA OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IS IN
PLACE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD FOR THE TIME BEING.
EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS HAS BACKED WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS...WITH AREAS OF FOG STILL LINGERING...
THOUGH VISIBILITIES ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WY...EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO MT...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPS AT 15Z RANGED FROM THE
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES OVER THE SD PLAINS...TO 50S OVER A GOOD
CHUNK OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND OR FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE
ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE THE EARLIEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...
THAT WILL HELP TO FUEL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES
STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATED
TO GET A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WITH SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD.

HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
SD PLAINS...WHERE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS...MOSTLY TO LOWER THEM A BIT AND PUSH
OFF THE TIMING TO LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. OTHER TWEAKS WERE MADE TO SKY
COVER..DEW POINTS...AND RH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH CLOSED LOW UNDER THE RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ADDITIONAL
CLOSED LOW IS SPINNING OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WITH TROF EXTENDING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. SKIES ARE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO NEBRASKA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS
NORTH FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM ARE MAINLY
IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

FOR TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE IN
WYOMING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND ELONGATE INTO AN INVERTED TROF
ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING/DAKOTAS STATE LINES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES LIFT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF AND CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
BLACK HILLS. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES...BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LOOK TO BE IN THE QUARTER INCH TO HALF AN INCH RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...WESTERN UPPER TROF SHIFTS EAST AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE TROF AND CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
INVERTED SURFACE TROF ALSO REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTH DAKOTA. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH TO HALF AN INCH LOOKS
LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
WHERE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LESS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S. NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER CLOSED-LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
MONDAY...BUT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BRINGING ONCE LAST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES FROM TIME TO TIME. LEE TROUGH
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE TROUGH
INTERSECTS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR/LIFR VSBYS ACROSS FAR WRN SD WILL IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR EARLY
THIS AFTN...WHILE IFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD.
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KFSD 251615
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1115 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY CONTINUING TO SPIN AWAY
FROM THE AREA...WITH AREA IN DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW SHOWERS IN WEAK LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE WANDERING EVER SO SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID JAMES
VALLEY. OVERALL...COVERAGE TENDENCY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
GOING TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING OF SHALLOW FORCING AND
TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE...AS WELL AS INCREASING IMPACT OF DRYING
IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH HAS BEEN ERODING A WEDGE ALONG INTERSTATE 90
FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TOWARD THE KFSD AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST
TO ERODE FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA...AND MAY YIELD JUST A BIT
COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR LOWER BRULE TOWARD KHON LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
LEADING TOWARDS IMPROVING CEILINGS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM EAST TO
WEST OVERNIGHT....LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251615
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1115 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY CONTINUING TO SPIN AWAY
FROM THE AREA...WITH AREA IN DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW SHOWERS IN WEAK LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE WANDERING EVER SO SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID JAMES
VALLEY. OVERALL...COVERAGE TENDENCY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
GOING TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING OF SHALLOW FORCING AND
TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE...AS WELL AS INCREASING IMPACT OF DRYING
IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH HAS BEEN ERODING A WEDGE ALONG INTERSTATE 90
FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TOWARD THE KFSD AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST
TO ERODE FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA...AND MAY YIELD JUST A BIT
COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR LOWER BRULE TOWARD KHON LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
LEADING TOWARDS IMPROVING CEILINGS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM EAST TO
WEST OVERNIGHT....LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251615
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1115 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY CONTINUING TO SPIN AWAY
FROM THE AREA...WITH AREA IN DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW SHOWERS IN WEAK LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE WANDERING EVER SO SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID JAMES
VALLEY. OVERALL...COVERAGE TENDENCY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
GOING TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING OF SHALLOW FORCING AND
TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE...AS WELL AS INCREASING IMPACT OF DRYING
IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH HAS BEEN ERODING A WEDGE ALONG INTERSTATE 90
FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TOWARD THE KFSD AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST
TO ERODE FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA...AND MAY YIELD JUST A BIT
COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR LOWER BRULE TOWARD KHON LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
LEADING TOWARDS IMPROVING CEILINGS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM EAST TO
WEST OVERNIGHT....LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251615
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1115 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY CONTINUING TO SPIN AWAY
FROM THE AREA...WITH AREA IN DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW SHOWERS IN WEAK LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE WANDERING EVER SO SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID JAMES
VALLEY. OVERALL...COVERAGE TENDENCY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
GOING TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING OF SHALLOW FORCING AND
TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE...AS WELL AS INCREASING IMPACT OF DRYING
IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH HAS BEEN ERODING A WEDGE ALONG INTERSTATE 90
FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TOWARD THE KFSD AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST
TO ERODE FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA...AND MAY YIELD JUST A BIT
COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR LOWER BRULE TOWARD KHON LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
LEADING TOWARDS IMPROVING CEILINGS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM EAST TO
WEST OVERNIGHT....LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251615
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1115 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY CONTINUING TO SPIN AWAY
FROM THE AREA...WITH AREA IN DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW SHOWERS IN WEAK LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE WANDERING EVER SO SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID JAMES
VALLEY. OVERALL...COVERAGE TENDENCY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
GOING TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING OF SHALLOW FORCING AND
TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE...AS WELL AS INCREASING IMPACT OF DRYING
IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH HAS BEEN ERODING A WEDGE ALONG INTERSTATE 90
FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TOWARD THE KFSD AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST
TO ERODE FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA...AND MAY YIELD JUST A BIT
COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR LOWER BRULE TOWARD KHON LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
LEADING TOWARDS IMPROVING CEILINGS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM EAST TO
WEST OVERNIGHT....LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251615
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1115 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY CONTINUING TO SPIN AWAY
FROM THE AREA...WITH AREA IN DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW SHOWERS IN WEAK LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE WANDERING EVER SO SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID JAMES
VALLEY. OVERALL...COVERAGE TENDENCY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
GOING TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING OF SHALLOW FORCING AND
TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE...AS WELL AS INCREASING IMPACT OF DRYING
IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH HAS BEEN ERODING A WEDGE ALONG INTERSTATE 90
FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TOWARD THE KFSD AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST
TO ERODE FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA...AND MAY YIELD JUST A BIT
COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR LOWER BRULE TOWARD KHON LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
LEADING TOWARDS IMPROVING CEILINGS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM EAST TO
WEST OVERNIGHT....LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251615
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1115 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY CONTINUING TO SPIN AWAY
FROM THE AREA...WITH AREA IN DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW SHOWERS IN WEAK LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE WANDERING EVER SO SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID JAMES
VALLEY. OVERALL...COVERAGE TENDENCY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
GOING TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING OF SHALLOW FORCING AND
TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE...AS WELL AS INCREASING IMPACT OF DRYING
IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH HAS BEEN ERODING A WEDGE ALONG INTERSTATE 90
FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TOWARD THE KFSD AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST
TO ERODE FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA...AND MAY YIELD JUST A BIT
COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR LOWER BRULE TOWARD KHON LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
LEADING TOWARDS IMPROVING CEILINGS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM EAST TO
WEST OVERNIGHT....LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251615
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1115 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY CONTINUING TO SPIN AWAY
FROM THE AREA...WITH AREA IN DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW SHOWERS IN WEAK LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE WANDERING EVER SO SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID JAMES
VALLEY. OVERALL...COVERAGE TENDENCY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
GOING TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING OF SHALLOW FORCING AND
TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE...AS WELL AS INCREASING IMPACT OF DRYING
IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH HAS BEEN ERODING A WEDGE ALONG INTERSTATE 90
FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TOWARD THE KFSD AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST
TO ERODE FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA...AND MAY YIELD JUST A BIT
COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR LOWER BRULE TOWARD KHON LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
LEADING TOWARDS IMPROVING CEILINGS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM EAST TO
WEST OVERNIGHT....LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251615
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1115 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY CONTINUING TO SPIN AWAY
FROM THE AREA...WITH AREA IN DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW SHOWERS IN WEAK LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE WANDERING EVER SO SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID JAMES
VALLEY. OVERALL...COVERAGE TENDENCY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
GOING TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING OF SHALLOW FORCING AND
TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE...AS WELL AS INCREASING IMPACT OF DRYING
IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH HAS BEEN ERODING A WEDGE ALONG INTERSTATE 90
FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TOWARD THE KFSD AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST
TO ERODE FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA...AND MAY YIELD JUST A BIT
COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR LOWER BRULE TOWARD KHON LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
LEADING TOWARDS IMPROVING CEILINGS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM EAST TO
WEST OVERNIGHT....LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KUNR 251603
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1003 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MO...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST
FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...BUT A NARROW AREA OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IS IN
PLACE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD FOR THE TIME BEING.
EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS HAS BACKED WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS...WITH AREAS OF FOG STILL LINGERING...
THOUGH VISIBILITIES ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WY...EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO MT...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPS AT 15Z RANGED FROM THE
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES OVER THE SD PLAINS...TO 50S OVER A GOOD
CHUNK OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND OR FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE
ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE THE EARLIEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...
THAT WILL HELP TO FUEL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES
STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATED
TO GET A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WITH SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD.

HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
SD PLAINS...WHERE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS...MOSTLY TO LOWER THEM A BIT AND PUSH
OFF THE TIMING TO LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. OTHER TWEAKS WERE MADE TO SKY
COVER..DEW POINTS...AND RH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH CLOSED LOW UNDER THE RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ADDITIONAL
CLOSED LOW IS SPINNING OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WITH TROF EXTENDING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. SKIES ARE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO NEBRASKA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS
NORTH FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM ARE MAINLY
IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

FOR TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE IN
WYOMING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND ELONGATE INTO AN INVERTED TROF
ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING/DAKOTAS STATE LINES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES LIFT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF AND CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
BLACK HILLS. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES...BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LOOK TO BE IN THE QUARTER INCH TO HALF AN INCH RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...WESTERN UPPER TROF SHIFTS EAST AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE TROF AND CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
INVERTED SURFACE TROF ALSO REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTH DAKOTA. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH TO HALF AN INCH LOOKS
LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
WHERE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LESS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S. NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER CLOSED-LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
MONDAY...BUT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BRINGING ONCE LAST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES FROM TIME TO TIME. LEE TROUGH
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE TROUGH
INTERSECTS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THIS MORNING WILL PROMOTE
MVFR/IFR ST DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS DUE TO BR OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
DIURNAL EFFECTS. SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS IFR CIGS/VSBYS
EXPECTED WITH THE RATHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON



000
FXUS63 KUNR 251603
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1003 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MO...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST
FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...BUT A NARROW AREA OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IS IN
PLACE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD FOR THE TIME BEING.
EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS HAS BACKED WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS...WITH AREAS OF FOG STILL LINGERING...
THOUGH VISIBILITIES ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WY...EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO MT...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPS AT 15Z RANGED FROM THE
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES OVER THE SD PLAINS...TO 50S OVER A GOOD
CHUNK OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND OR FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE
ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE THE EARLIEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...
THAT WILL HELP TO FUEL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES
STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATED
TO GET A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WITH SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD.

HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
SD PLAINS...WHERE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS...MOSTLY TO LOWER THEM A BIT AND PUSH
OFF THE TIMING TO LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. OTHER TWEAKS WERE MADE TO SKY
COVER..DEW POINTS...AND RH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH CLOSED LOW UNDER THE RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ADDITIONAL
CLOSED LOW IS SPINNING OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WITH TROF EXTENDING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. SKIES ARE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO NEBRASKA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS
NORTH FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM ARE MAINLY
IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

FOR TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE IN
WYOMING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND ELONGATE INTO AN INVERTED TROF
ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING/DAKOTAS STATE LINES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES LIFT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF AND CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
BLACK HILLS. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES...BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LOOK TO BE IN THE QUARTER INCH TO HALF AN INCH RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...WESTERN UPPER TROF SHIFTS EAST AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE TROF AND CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
INVERTED SURFACE TROF ALSO REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTH DAKOTA. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH TO HALF AN INCH LOOKS
LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
WHERE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LESS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S. NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER CLOSED-LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
MONDAY...BUT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BRINGING ONCE LAST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES FROM TIME TO TIME. LEE TROUGH
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE TROUGH
INTERSECTS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THIS MORNING WILL PROMOTE
MVFR/IFR ST DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS DUE TO BR OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
DIURNAL EFFECTS. SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS IFR CIGS/VSBYS
EXPECTED WITH THE RATHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KABR 251524 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1024 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE CWA WAS COVERED BY LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE CEILING
HEIGHTS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH MAYBE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON. TOOK OUT POPS ACROSS THE WEST
ALSO FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WOBBLES AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DUE TO THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA IS LIKELY TO
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...AND BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER WEST. THE RESULT
APPEARS TO BE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...AND CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WEST. IT ISNT UNTIL MONDAY THAT THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA...ALTHOUGH QPF AT THIS POINT LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM
BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS MAY TOP OUT NEAR 80 BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN IFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE WEST THIS MORNING.
IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR.
KPIR/KMBG WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
KATY/KABR MAY SEE SOME CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 00Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE






000
FXUS63 KABR 251524 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1024 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE CWA WAS COVERED BY LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE CEILING
HEIGHTS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH MAYBE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON. TOOK OUT POPS ACROSS THE WEST
ALSO FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WOBBLES AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DUE TO THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA IS LIKELY TO
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...AND BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER WEST. THE RESULT
APPEARS TO BE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...AND CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WEST. IT ISNT UNTIL MONDAY THAT THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA...ALTHOUGH QPF AT THIS POINT LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM
BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS MAY TOP OUT NEAR 80 BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN IFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE WEST THIS MORNING.
IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR.
KPIR/KMBG WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
KATY/KABR MAY SEE SOME CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 00Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE







000
FXUS63 KABR 251130 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
630 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WOBBLES AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DUE TO THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA IS LIKELY TO
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...AND BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER WEST. THE RESULT
APPEARS TO BE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...AND CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WEST. IT ISNT UNTIL MONDAY THAT THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA...ALTHOUGH QPF AT THIS POINT LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM
BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS MAY TOP OUT NEAR 80 BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN IFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE WEST THIS MORNING.
IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR.
KPIR/KMBG WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
KATY/KABR MAY SEE SOME CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 00Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE







000
FXUS63 KABR 251130 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
630 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WOBBLES AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DUE TO THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA IS LIKELY TO
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...AND BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER WEST. THE RESULT
APPEARS TO BE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...AND CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WEST. IT ISNT UNTIL MONDAY THAT THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA...ALTHOUGH QPF AT THIS POINT LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM
BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS MAY TOP OUT NEAR 80 BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN IFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE WEST THIS MORNING.
IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR.
KPIR/KMBG WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
KATY/KABR MAY SEE SOME CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 00Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE








000
FXUS63 KABR 251130 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
630 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WOBBLES AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DUE TO THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA IS LIKELY TO
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...AND BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER WEST. THE RESULT
APPEARS TO BE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...AND CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WEST. IT ISNT UNTIL MONDAY THAT THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA...ALTHOUGH QPF AT THIS POINT LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM
BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS MAY TOP OUT NEAR 80 BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN IFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE WEST THIS MORNING.
IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR.
KPIR/KMBG WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
KATY/KABR MAY SEE SOME CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 00Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE








000
FXUS63 KABR 251130 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
630 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WOBBLES AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DUE TO THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA IS LIKELY TO
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...AND BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER WEST. THE RESULT
APPEARS TO BE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...AND CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WEST. IT ISNT UNTIL MONDAY THAT THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA...ALTHOUGH QPF AT THIS POINT LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM
BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS MAY TOP OUT NEAR 80 BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN IFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE WEST THIS MORNING.
IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR.
KPIR/KMBG WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
KATY/KABR MAY SEE SOME CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 00Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE







000
FXUS63 KFSD 251123
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
623 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
LEADING TOWARDS IMPROVING CEILINGS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM EAST TO
WEST OVERNIGHT....LEADING TO VFR CONDTIONS PREVAILING SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251123
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
623 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
LEADING TOWARDS IMPROVING CEILINGS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM EAST TO
WEST OVERNIGHT....LEADING TO VFR CONDTIONS PREVAILING SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251123
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
623 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
LEADING TOWARDS IMPROVING CEILINGS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM EAST TO
WEST OVERNIGHT....LEADING TO VFR CONDTIONS PREVAILING SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251123
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
623 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
LEADING TOWARDS IMPROVING CEILINGS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM EAST TO
WEST OVERNIGHT....LEADING TO VFR CONDTIONS PREVAILING SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251123
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
623 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
LEADING TOWARDS IMPROVING CEILINGS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM EAST TO
WEST OVERNIGHT....LEADING TO VFR CONDTIONS PREVAILING SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KUNR 250927
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
327 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH CLOSED LOW UNDER THE RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ADDITIONAL
CLOSED LOW IS SPINNING OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WITH TROF EXTENDING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. SKIES ARE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO NEBRASKA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS
NORTH FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM ARE MAINLY
IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

FOR TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE IN
WYOMING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND ELONGATE INTO AN INVERTED TROF
ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING/DAKOTAS STATE LINES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES LIFT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF AND CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
BLACK HILLS. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES...BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LOOK TO BE IN THE QUARTER INCH TO HALF AN INCH RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...WESTERN UPPER TROF SHIFTS EAST AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE TROF AND CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
INVERTED SURFACE TROF ALSO REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTH DAKOTA. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH TO HALF AN INCH LOOKS
LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
WHERE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LESS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S. NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER CLOSED-LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
MONDAY...BUT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BRINGING ONCE LAST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES FROM TIME TO TIME. LEE TROUGH
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE TROUGH
INTERSECTS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THIS MORNING WILL PROMOTE
MVFR/IFR ST DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS DUE TO BR OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
DIURNAL EFFECTS. SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS IFR CIGS/VSBYS
EXPECTED WITH THE RATHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 250927
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
327 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH CLOSED LOW UNDER THE RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ADDITIONAL
CLOSED LOW IS SPINNING OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WITH TROF EXTENDING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. SKIES ARE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO NEBRASKA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS
NORTH FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM ARE MAINLY
IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

FOR TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE IN
WYOMING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND ELONGATE INTO AN INVERTED TROF
ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING/DAKOTAS STATE LINES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES LIFT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF AND CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
BLACK HILLS. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES...BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LOOK TO BE IN THE QUARTER INCH TO HALF AN INCH RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...WESTERN UPPER TROF SHIFTS EAST AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE TROF AND CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
INVERTED SURFACE TROF ALSO REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTH DAKOTA. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH TO HALF AN INCH LOOKS
LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
WHERE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LESS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S. NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER CLOSED-LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
MONDAY...BUT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BRINGING ONCE LAST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES FROM TIME TO TIME. LEE TROUGH
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE TROUGH
INTERSECTS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THIS MORNING WILL PROMOTE
MVFR/IFR ST DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS DUE TO BR OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
DIURNAL EFFECTS. SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS IFR CIGS/VSBYS
EXPECTED WITH THE RATHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON



000
FXUS63 KFSD 250924
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
424 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WEAK VORTICITY MAX CONTINUES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO RETREAT
SOUTHWEST ALLOWING COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO FILTER WESTWARD.
HOWEVER...EXPECTING HIT OR MISS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CEILINGS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...WE WILL SEE THESE CEILINGS
IMPROVE TOWARDS MIDDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 250924
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
424 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WEAK VORTICITY MAX CONTINUES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO RETREAT
SOUTHWEST ALLOWING COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO FILTER WESTWARD.
HOWEVER...EXPECTING HIT OR MISS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CEILINGS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...WE WILL SEE THESE CEILINGS
IMPROVE TOWARDS MIDDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...DUX



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