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000
FXUS63 KUNR 022334
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
534 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS LARGE RIDGE
OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
FLOW OVER OUR CWA. PVA AND STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE HAVE LED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD SEE CLEARING
SKIES BEHIND IT.

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT OVER OUR CWA AND
KEEP THINGS DRY AND WARM FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE A
LITTLE BIT WARMER ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY...SO SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS ENERGY FROM LARGE
DESERT SW LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS THIS LOW SLOWLY MIGRATES
NORTHEASTWARD...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDS EXPECTED. A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN SD THIS
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR SHRA. CLEARING EXPECTED
N-S THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JC



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000
FXUS63 KABR 022324 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT REVOLVE MAINLY AROUND
TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...AND ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT`S BEEN RAINING...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. A DECAYING/DISSIPATING BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO PIVOT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHILE SWEEPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE NEW HEAT OF THE DAY SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN NOTED DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND EVEN BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS RELATIVELY QUIET. PRECIPITATION FROM
EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOULD BE DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE OR MOVING
SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...TAKING CLOUD COVER WITH IT.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT ARE TWO NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR RADIATIONAL FOG. AND...WITH SOME AREAS PICKING UP
SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN THAT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
NIGHT-TIME BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST AND UN-MIXED...THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY/AREAS COVERAGE OF FOG BY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

OTHERWISE...THE CHALLENGE WILL BE FIGURING OUT WHERE THE COOL FRONT
BACK-DOORING ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ENDS UP
STOPPING/STALLING OUT ON TUESDAY. THE CWA WEST OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE
70S...WHILE THE CWA EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY ONLY SEE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
COLD FROPA TIMING WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN HOW WARM THE EASTERN CWA
CAN GET TUESDAY. AND AFTER SHOWERS DISAPPEAR THIS EVENING...THE REST
OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS A DRY FORECAST FOR THE TIME
BEING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US.
THIS RIDGE WILL BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S. THE
WARM/DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR.
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST COULD BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL RANGE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OTHER THAN SOME EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSRA IT SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MOST CLOUDS DISSIPATING...LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AT
KABR/KATY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KABR 022324 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT REVOLVE MAINLY AROUND
TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...AND ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT`S BEEN RAINING...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. A DECAYING/DISSIPATING BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO PIVOT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHILE SWEEPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE NEW HEAT OF THE DAY SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN NOTED DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND EVEN BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS RELATIVELY QUIET. PRECIPITATION FROM
EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOULD BE DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE OR MOVING
SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...TAKING CLOUD COVER WITH IT.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT ARE TWO NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR RADIATIONAL FOG. AND...WITH SOME AREAS PICKING UP
SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN THAT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
NIGHT-TIME BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST AND UN-MIXED...THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY/AREAS COVERAGE OF FOG BY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

OTHERWISE...THE CHALLENGE WILL BE FIGURING OUT WHERE THE COOL FRONT
BACK-DOORING ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ENDS UP
STOPPING/STALLING OUT ON TUESDAY. THE CWA WEST OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE
70S...WHILE THE CWA EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY ONLY SEE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
COLD FROPA TIMING WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN HOW WARM THE EASTERN CWA
CAN GET TUESDAY. AND AFTER SHOWERS DISAPPEAR THIS EVENING...THE REST
OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS A DRY FORECAST FOR THE TIME
BEING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US.
THIS RIDGE WILL BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S. THE
WARM/DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR.
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST COULD BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL RANGE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OTHER THAN SOME EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSRA IT SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MOST CLOUDS DISSIPATING...LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AT
KABR/KATY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KABR 022324 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT REVOLVE MAINLY AROUND
TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...AND ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT`S BEEN RAINING...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. A DECAYING/DISSIPATING BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO PIVOT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHILE SWEEPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE NEW HEAT OF THE DAY SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN NOTED DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND EVEN BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS RELATIVELY QUIET. PRECIPITATION FROM
EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOULD BE DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE OR MOVING
SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...TAKING CLOUD COVER WITH IT.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT ARE TWO NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR RADIATIONAL FOG. AND...WITH SOME AREAS PICKING UP
SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN THAT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
NIGHT-TIME BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST AND UN-MIXED...THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY/AREAS COVERAGE OF FOG BY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

OTHERWISE...THE CHALLENGE WILL BE FIGURING OUT WHERE THE COOL FRONT
BACK-DOORING ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ENDS UP
STOPPING/STALLING OUT ON TUESDAY. THE CWA WEST OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE
70S...WHILE THE CWA EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY ONLY SEE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
COLD FROPA TIMING WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN HOW WARM THE EASTERN CWA
CAN GET TUESDAY. AND AFTER SHOWERS DISAPPEAR THIS EVENING...THE REST
OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS A DRY FORECAST FOR THE TIME
BEING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US.
THIS RIDGE WILL BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S. THE
WARM/DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR.
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST COULD BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL RANGE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OTHER THAN SOME EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSRA IT SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MOST CLOUDS DISSIPATING...LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AT
KABR/KATY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KABR 022324 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT REVOLVE MAINLY AROUND
TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...AND ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT`S BEEN RAINING...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. A DECAYING/DISSIPATING BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO PIVOT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHILE SWEEPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE NEW HEAT OF THE DAY SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN NOTED DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND EVEN BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS RELATIVELY QUIET. PRECIPITATION FROM
EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOULD BE DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE OR MOVING
SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...TAKING CLOUD COVER WITH IT.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT ARE TWO NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR RADIATIONAL FOG. AND...WITH SOME AREAS PICKING UP
SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN THAT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
NIGHT-TIME BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST AND UN-MIXED...THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY/AREAS COVERAGE OF FOG BY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

OTHERWISE...THE CHALLENGE WILL BE FIGURING OUT WHERE THE COOL FRONT
BACK-DOORING ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ENDS UP
STOPPING/STALLING OUT ON TUESDAY. THE CWA WEST OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE
70S...WHILE THE CWA EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY ONLY SEE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
COLD FROPA TIMING WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN HOW WARM THE EASTERN CWA
CAN GET TUESDAY. AND AFTER SHOWERS DISAPPEAR THIS EVENING...THE REST
OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS A DRY FORECAST FOR THE TIME
BEING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US.
THIS RIDGE WILL BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S. THE
WARM/DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR.
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST COULD BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL RANGE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OTHER THAN SOME EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSRA IT SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MOST CLOUDS DISSIPATING...LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AT
KABR/KATY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK



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000
FXUS63 KFSD 022256
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
556 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

DISTURBANCE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR LEADING TO GOOD RADIATIVE
CONDITIONS. ANY INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN THE EAST SHOULD DIE THIS
EVENING WITH SUNSET.

COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...SHALLOW INSTABILITY FROM 750 TO 650
MB MAY RESULT IN SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.  FAIRLY DRY IN THE SUBCLOUD LAYER...SO AM NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING RAINFALL.  POCKET OF COOLEST AIR IN
IN THE EASTERN CWA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO CONFINED POPS TO THE
EASTERN 1-2 COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASED WINDS. 925
HPA WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WITH
SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER NEAR THE FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
EAST OF I-29...WILL CONTINUE SMALL POPS IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN AND
NORTHWEST IA TUESDAY EVENING.

OTHERWISE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK
DRY AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WARMING FROM OUR
SEASONABLE POST-FRONTAL HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY...TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY.

WEEKEND BEGINS WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER WAVE ROTATING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AROUND A STRONG UPPER LOW IN EASTERN CANADA.
MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN
HOW STRONGLY THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GEM IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SLOWER/LESS AGGRESSIVE...WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO WHICH THIS BOUNDARY/WAVE
WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN...THOUGH EVEN THESE MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME DISAGREEMENT...WITH ECMWF FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS WITH THE
FRONT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO EVENTUAL BOUNDARY POSITION...AND ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIP CHANCE TIMING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
FOR NOW HAVE MADE FEW ADJUSTMENTS FROM BROADER MODEL CONSENSUS. MAY
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY...DEPENDING
ON BOUNDARY LOCATION...AS MODELS ARE FORECASTING  A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR/NORTH OF THE FRONT.

LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WESTERN CONUS TROUGH BEGINS TO
TRANSLATE EAST AND FURTHER BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS LOOKS TO
PUT US BACK INTO A WETTER PATTERN AGAIN SUNDAY/MONDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE REGION...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS PERSISTENT
NOR WIDESPREAD AS OVER THIS PAST WEEK. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES
LOOK MORE SEASONABLE THAN WE SAW DURING OUR RECENT WET PATTERN...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE WESTERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KUNR 022028
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
228 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS LARGE RIDGE
OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
FLOW OVER OUR CWA. PVA AND STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE HAVE LED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD SEE CLEARING
SKIES BEHIND IT.

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT OVER OUR CWA AND
KEEP THINGS DRY AND WARM FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE A
LITTLE BIT WARMER ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY...SO SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS ENERGY FROM LARGE
DESERT SW LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS THIS LOW SLOWLY MIGRATES
NORTHEASTWARD...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL MVFR
CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15




000
FXUS63 KABR 022016
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT REVOLVE MAINLY AROUND
TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...AND ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT`S BEEN RAINING...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. A DECAYING/DISSIPATING BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO PIVOT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHILE SWEEPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE NEW HEAT OF THE DAY SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN NOTED DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND EVEN BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS RELATIVELY QUIET. PRECIPITATION FROM
EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOULD BE DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE OR MOVING
SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...TAKING CLOUD COVER WITH IT.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT ARE TWO NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR RADIATIONAL FOG. AND...WITH SOME AREAS PICKING UP
SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN THAT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
NIGHT-TIME BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST AND UN-MIXED...THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY/AREAS COVERAGE OF FOG BY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

OTHERWISE...THE CHALLENGE WILL BE FIGURING OUT WHERE THE COOL FRONT
BACK-DOORING ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ENDS UP
STOPPING/STALLING OUT ON TUESDAY. THE CWA WEST OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE
70S...WHILE THE CWA EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY ONLY SEE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
COLD FROPA TIMING WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN HOW WARM THE EASTERN CWA
CAN GET TUESDAY. AND AFTER SHOWERS DISAPPEAR THIS EVENING...THE REST
OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS A DRY FORECAST FOR THE TIME
BEING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US.
THIS RIDGE WILL BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S. THE
WARM/DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR.
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST COULD BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL RANGE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. THAT SAID...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF SOUTH DAKOTA. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR
IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE TERMINAL
OF KPIR WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING REDUCE VISIBILITIES
DUE TO THE SHOWERS. A FEW MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TAFS UPDATES WILL
REFLECT THE CHANGING CONDITIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 022010
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
310 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

DISTURBANCE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR LEADING TO GOOD RADIATIVE
CONDITIONS. ANY INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN THE EAST SHOULD DIE THIS
EVENING WITH SUNSET.

COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...SHALLOW INSTABILITY FROM 750 TO 650
MB MAY RESULT IN SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.  FAIRLY DRY IN THE SUBCLOUD LAYER...SO AM NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING RAINFALL.  POCKET OF COOLEST AIR IN
IN THE EASTERN CWA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO CONFINED POPS TO THE
EASTERN 1-2 COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASED WINDS. 925
HPA WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WITH
SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER NEAR THE FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
EAST OF I-29...WILL CONTINUE SMALL POPS IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN AND
NORTHWEST IA TUESDAY EVENING.

OTHERWISE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK
DRY AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WARMING FROM OUR
SEASONABLE POST-FRONTAL HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY...TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY.

WEEKEND BEGINS WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER WAVE ROTATING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AROUND A STRONG UPPER LOW IN EASTERN CANADA.
MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN
HOW STRONGLY THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GEM IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SLOWER/LESS AGGRESSIVE...WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO WHICH THIS BOUNDARY/WAVE
WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN...THOUGH EVEN THESE MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME DISAGREEMENT...WITH ECMWF FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS WITH THE
FRONT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO EVENTUAL BOUNDARY POSITION...AND ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIP CHANCE TIMING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
FOR NOW HAVE MADE FEW ADJUSTMENTS FROM BROADER MODEL CONSENSUS. MAY
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY...DEPENDING
ON BOUNDARY LOCATION...AS MODELS ARE FORECASTING  A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR/NORTH OF THE FRONT.

LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WESTERN CONUS TROUGH BEGINS TO
TRANSLATE EAST AND FURTHER BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS LOOKS TO
PUT US BACK INTO A WETTER PATTERN AGAIN SUNDAY/MONDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE REGION...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS PERSISTENT
NOR WIDESPREAD AS OVER THIS PAST WEEK. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES
LOOK MORE SEASONABLE THAN WE SAW DURING OUR RECENT WET PATTERN...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 20Z ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. COULD SEE A MARGINAL WIND THREAT AS FAR EAST
AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...BT




000
FXUS63 KABR 021742 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1242 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO WX/POP/QPF GRIDS TO TRY AND IMPROVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS OF MORNING SHOWERS AND LIKELY HEAT OF THE
DAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LEAVING TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL BE INTO ND LATER THIS MORNING.
UPSTREAM RADARS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP ON LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ND...MOVING SOUTHWARD. AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND EVEN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
SD. LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TODAY...BUT A FEW MEMBERS BRING THINGS INTO
THE JAMES VALLEY. IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS AN EVEN
FURTHER EASTWARD PUSH IN ACTIVITY TODAY AND BRINGS A LINE OF SHOWERS
INTO THE JAMES VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISO/WDLY SCT
AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN CWA TOWARDS I-29.
COOL POCKET OF 500 MB TEMPS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY ALLOWING FOR
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE HRRR CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF THIS EASTWARD PUSH IS A TREND THAT
CONTINUES. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...HAVE SLID POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST
TODAY...BUT KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD PROVIDE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS SO KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...MAKING WAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND LONGEVITY OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
HIGHS. KEPT WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THEY
WILL BE LEAST IMPACTED BY THESE VARIABLES. HIGHS COULD PUSH 70
THERE. 60S ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE BUT RANGE OF 60S ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP DURATION/FREQUENCY. TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN MILD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS A
NICE SURGE OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT 925/850 MB MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. WILL ALSO HAVE GOOD MIXING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST HELPING
TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS DAMPENED AS A
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY SWINGS ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP BETWEEN IT AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

WITH DECENT WAA IN PLACE...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. THAT SAID...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF SOUTH DAKOTA. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR
IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE TERMINAL
OF KPIR WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING REDUCE VISIBILITIES
DUE TO THE SHOWERS. A FEW MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TAFS UPDATES WILL
REFLECT THE CHANGING CONDITIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SD




000
FXUS63 KABR 021742 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1242 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO WX/POP/QPF GRIDS TO TRY AND IMPROVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS OF MORNING SHOWERS AND LIKELY HEAT OF THE
DAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LEAVING TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL BE INTO ND LATER THIS MORNING.
UPSTREAM RADARS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP ON LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ND...MOVING SOUTHWARD. AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND EVEN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
SD. LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TODAY...BUT A FEW MEMBERS BRING THINGS INTO
THE JAMES VALLEY. IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS AN EVEN
FURTHER EASTWARD PUSH IN ACTIVITY TODAY AND BRINGS A LINE OF SHOWERS
INTO THE JAMES VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISO/WDLY SCT
AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN CWA TOWARDS I-29.
COOL POCKET OF 500 MB TEMPS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY ALLOWING FOR
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE HRRR CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF THIS EASTWARD PUSH IS A TREND THAT
CONTINUES. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...HAVE SLID POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST
TODAY...BUT KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD PROVIDE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS SO KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...MAKING WAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND LONGEVITY OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
HIGHS. KEPT WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THEY
WILL BE LEAST IMPACTED BY THESE VARIABLES. HIGHS COULD PUSH 70
THERE. 60S ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE BUT RANGE OF 60S ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP DURATION/FREQUENCY. TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN MILD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS A
NICE SURGE OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT 925/850 MB MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. WILL ALSO HAVE GOOD MIXING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST HELPING
TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS DAMPENED AS A
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY SWINGS ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP BETWEEN IT AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

WITH DECENT WAA IN PLACE...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. THAT SAID...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF SOUTH DAKOTA. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR
IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE TERMINAL
OF KPIR WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING REDUCE VISIBILITIES
DUE TO THE SHOWERS. A FEW MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TAFS UPDATES WILL
REFLECT THE CHANGING CONDITIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SD




000
FXUS63 KUNR 021721
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS COMPACT SHORTWAVE NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. CLOUDS INCREASING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A FEW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SHORTWAVE CROSSES SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULT IN MUCAPE OF
250-500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. RADAR SIMULATIONS FROM SHORT RANGE CAMS SHOW
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL BECOME BREEZY ON THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AND WARMER FOR TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY AS ENERGY FROM
LARGE DESERT SW LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS THIS LOW SLOWLY
MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL
MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...15




000
FXUS63 KUNR 021721
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS COMPACT SHORTWAVE NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. CLOUDS INCREASING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A FEW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SHORTWAVE CROSSES SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULT IN MUCAPE OF
250-500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. RADAR SIMULATIONS FROM SHORT RANGE CAMS SHOW
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL BECOME BREEZY ON THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AND WARMER FOR TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY AS ENERGY FROM
LARGE DESERT SW LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS THIS LOW SLOWLY
MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL
MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...15




000
FXUS63 KFSD 021715
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1215 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE MAIN FEATURE TODAY IS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THIS LOW DOWN INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS IS
EVIDENCED BY FOLLOWING THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL QG FORCING. MOISTURE
IS FAIRLY DEEP WITH THIS SYSTEM IN OUR FAR WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY AROUND THE CHAMBERLAIN AREA...WHERE HIGH
END SCATTERED POPS ARE WARRANTED. BUT HEADING EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDLE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...THE MOISTURE PROFILE SHALLOWS OUT AS YOU
MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE WAVE. THIS WARRANTS JUST LOW END
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED POPS. IN OUR WEST...THE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD
ENOUGH AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER TO WARRANT A MENTION OF TSRA.

A SECOND FEATURE WHICH IS INTERESTING IS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
I 29 CORRIDOR. THE VARIOUS MODELS SHOW ABOUT A 75MB THICK CU DECK
CENTERED NEAR 750MB IN THAT STRIPE...WITH THE MOISTURE MORE SHALLOW
IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN ZONES FROM WINDOM TO STORM LAKE. BELIEVE WITH
THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND REMAINING UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW...
THAT WE WILL CU UP THIS AFTERNOON FROM I 29 EASTWARD...AND THE
MOISTURE DEPTH COULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I 29. THERE IS A SUBTLE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
NOTED AT 500MB VERY CLOSE TO SIOUX FALLS AT 00Z TUE...MAXIMIZED
WHERE THE AIR ALOFT IS THE COLDEST. WITH THE MID AND UPPER FLOW
SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST AT SIOUX CITY...KEPT KSUX DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I 29 COULD HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM ABOUT 3PM TO 6PM. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS...AS WELL AS THE ARW AND NMM.

OTHERWISE OVERALL THOUGH...WITH LIGHT WINDS IT WILL BE A NICE DAY
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE. FOR TONIGHT...IT
SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL AS OUR WESTERN WAVE DEPARTS LEAVING A RISK OF
SOME EARLY EVENING SHOWERS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. THE HEATING DRIVEN
CUMULUS NEAR I 29 WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY. LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

TUESDAY ANOTHER STEP IN THE WARMER DIRECTION WITH A HEALTHY WESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD DROPPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE SCRAPING UP ALONG NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
CWA BORDER TOWARD EVENING...WHICH WILL GIVE A FULL DAY OF MIXING FOR
THE AREA. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EARLY...BUT LOOK FOR A GREATER DEGREE
OF CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
MIXED VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A TAIL OF DIV Q WILL
BRUSH THROUGH SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE COULD BE ENOUGH TO ENTICE A FEW MORE WELL DEVELOPED
CUMULUS AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT LATE DAY.  HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUD LAYER STRUGGLING TO REACH -10C...LIKELY
NOT ENOUGH ICE PROCESS EVEN WITH 100-200 MLCAPE TO THREATEN ANY
LIGHTNING.

WINDS SHOULD STAY UP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH...ANY MAYBE A TOUCH STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE AS 20
TO 30 KNOTS IN WITHIN 1 KFT OF SURFACE DURING POST FRONTAL COLD
ADVECTION PERIOD...SO ADDED A TERRAIN ENHANCED 3-5 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE NIGHT. BLENDED IN TYPICALLY BETTER
CONSRAW MODEL DATA...AND EVEN THIS KEPT READINGS A BIT HIGHER TO
MATCH EXPECTED BREEZIER AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SETTLE IN FOR A PLEASANT AND DRY PERIOD AS
OMEGA BLOCK BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE MID CONUS. SLIGHT COOLING
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE HEART OF THE AREA BY
EVENING...AND STILL OPEN FOR SOME BREEZIER NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY IN PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA.  RIDGE LINGERS EAST OF I 29
ACROSS MAINLY NW IA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN FAVORING SOME OF THE
COLDER GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I 29. MORE SUN...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMING OFF SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN BOOST
READINGS INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  FRIDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO NUDGE EASTWARD OVER THE AREA...EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS WITH A FEW 80 DEGREES READINGS POPPING UP...BUT ALSO LIKELY
DEALING WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS.

THE OVERALL SITUATION BECOMES MUCH MORE MUDDLED BY THE WEEKEND...
WITH OMEGA BLOCK WEAKENING/BREAKDOWN SUBTLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS. MAIN DIFFERENCE LOOKS TO BE HOW STRONG HUDSON BAY
LOW MAINTAINS...AND WHAT KICK WAVE SLIDING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
GIVES TO EASTERN UPPER WAVE PORTION OF OMEGA BLOCK. IMPACT FOR OUR
AREA IS HOW AGGRESSIVELY A LOWER TO MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF/CANADIAN STRONGEST WITH WAVE FLATTENING RIDGE AND FASTEST AND
FURTHEST SOUTHWARD WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION...WHILE GFS A BIT MORE
LEISURELY IN PUSHING BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION ON
EVENTUAL PRECIPITATION THREAT BETWEEN SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS
PARTICULARLY WET THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...AND ECMWF QUICKLY SENDING
FOCUS MORE TOWARD I 80. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP FROM ANY STRONG
CONSENSUS AROUND THE REGION...AND AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY TRENDED FROM
FAIRLY BLANKETED UNIFORM POPS TO SHOW A BIT OF A LESSER CHANCE NORTH
VS. SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WESTERN UPPER LOW BEGINS A
WOBBLE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... AND
LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN/THUNDER DEVELOP JUST
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MORE
PREVALENT CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING BACK SEASONABLE 60S
ON SUNDAY.

WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP ONE EYE ON FRONTAL PROGRESSION ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF DECENT INSTABILITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY
AND POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE LOCALIZED SHEAR...MAINLY LOWER IN THE
WIND PROFILE...COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS IN THE
AREA OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 20Z ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. COULD SEE A MARGINAL WIND THREAT AS FAR EAST
AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...BT




000
FXUS63 KABR 021526 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1026 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO WX/POP/QPF GRIDS TO TRY AND IMPROVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS OF MORNING SHOWERS AND LIKELY HEAT OF THE
DAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LEAVING TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL BE INTO ND LATER THIS MORNING.
UPSTREAM RADARS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP ON LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ND...MOVING SOUTHWARD. AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND EVEN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
SD. LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TODAY...BUT A FEW MEMBERS BRING THINGS INTO
THE JAMES VALLEY. IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS AN EVEN
FURTHER EASTWARD PUSH IN ACTIVITY TODAY AND BRINGS A LINE OF SHOWERS
INTO THE JAMES VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISO/WDLY SCT
AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN CWA TOWARDS I-29.
COOL POCKET OF 500 MB TEMPS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY ALLOWING FOR
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE HRRR CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF THIS EASTWARD PUSH IS A TREND THAT
CONTINUES. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...HAVE SLID POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST
TODAY...BUT KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD PROVIDE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS SO KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...MAKING WAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND LONGEVITY OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
HIGHS. KEPT WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THEY
WILL BE LEAST IMPACTED BY THESE VARIABLES. HIGHS COULD PUSH 70
THERE. 60S ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE BUT RANGE OF 60S ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP DURATION/FREQUENCY. TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN MILD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS A
NICE SURGE OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT 925/850 MB MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. WILL ALSO HAVE GOOD MIXING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST HELPING
TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS DAMPENED AS A
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY SWINGS ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP BETWEEN IT AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

WITH DECENT WAA IN PLACE...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
MORNING...THEN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KMBG...KPIR AND POSSIBLY KABR WILL BE AFFECTED.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 021526 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1026 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO WX/POP/QPF GRIDS TO TRY AND IMPROVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS OF MORNING SHOWERS AND LIKELY HEAT OF THE
DAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LEAVING TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL BE INTO ND LATER THIS MORNING.
UPSTREAM RADARS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP ON LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ND...MOVING SOUTHWARD. AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND EVEN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
SD. LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TODAY...BUT A FEW MEMBERS BRING THINGS INTO
THE JAMES VALLEY. IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS AN EVEN
FURTHER EASTWARD PUSH IN ACTIVITY TODAY AND BRINGS A LINE OF SHOWERS
INTO THE JAMES VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISO/WDLY SCT
AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN CWA TOWARDS I-29.
COOL POCKET OF 500 MB TEMPS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY ALLOWING FOR
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE HRRR CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF THIS EASTWARD PUSH IS A TREND THAT
CONTINUES. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...HAVE SLID POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST
TODAY...BUT KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD PROVIDE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS SO KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...MAKING WAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND LONGEVITY OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
HIGHS. KEPT WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THEY
WILL BE LEAST IMPACTED BY THESE VARIABLES. HIGHS COULD PUSH 70
THERE. 60S ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE BUT RANGE OF 60S ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP DURATION/FREQUENCY. TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN MILD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS A
NICE SURGE OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT 925/850 MB MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. WILL ALSO HAVE GOOD MIXING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST HELPING
TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS DAMPENED AS A
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY SWINGS ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP BETWEEN IT AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

WITH DECENT WAA IN PLACE...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
MORNING...THEN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KMBG...KPIR AND POSSIBLY KABR WILL BE AFFECTED.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 021137
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
637 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE MAIN FEATURE TODAY IS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THIS LOW DOWN INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS IS
EVIDENCED BY FOLLOWING THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL QG FORCING. MOISTURE
IS FAIRLY DEEP WITH THIS SYSTEM IN OUR FAR WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY AROUND THE CHAMBERLAIN AREA...WHERE HIGH
END SCATTERED POPS ARE WARRANTED. BUT HEADING EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDLE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...THE MOISTURE PROFILE SHALLOWS OUT AS YOU
MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE WAVE. THIS WARRANTS JUST LOW END
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED POPS. IN OUR WEST...THE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD
ENOUGH AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER TO WARRANT A MENTION OF TSRA.

A SECOND FEATURE WHICH IS INTERESTING IS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
I 29 CORRIDOR. THE VARIOUS MODELS SHOW ABOUT A 75MB THICK CU DECK
CENTERED NEAR 750MB IN THAT STRIPE...WITH THE MOISTURE MORE SHALLOW
IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN ZONES FROM WINDOM TO STORM LAKE. BELIEVE WITH
THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND REMAINING UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW...
THAT WE WILL CU UP THIS AFTERNOON FROM I 29 EASTWARD...AND THE
MOISTURE DEPTH COULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I 29. THERE IS A SUBTLE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
NOTED AT 500MB VERY CLOSE TO SIOUX FALLS AT 00Z TUE...MAXIMIZED
WHERE THE AIR ALOFT IS THE COLDEST. WITH THE MID AND UPPER FLOW
SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST AT SIOUX CITY...KEPT KSUX DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I 29 COULD HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM ABOUT 3PM TO 6PM. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS...AS WELL AS THE ARW AND NMM.

OTHERWISE OVERALL THOUGH...WITH LIGHT WINDS IT WILL BE A NICE DAY
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE. FOR TONIGHT...IT
SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL AS OUR WESTERN WAVE DEPARTS LEAVING A RISK OF
SOME EARLY EVENING SHOWERS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. THE HEATING DRIVEN
CUMULUS NEAR I 29 WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY. LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

TUESDAY ANOTHER STEP IN THE WARMER DIRECTION WITH A HEALTHY WESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD DROPPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE SCRAPING UP ALONG NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
CWA BORDER TOWARD EVENING...WHICH WILL GIVE A FULL DAY OF MIXING FOR
THE AREA. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EARLY...BUT LOOK FOR A GREATER DEGREE
OF CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
MIXED VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A TAIL OF DIV Q WILL
BRUSH THROUGH SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE COULD BE ENOUGH TO ENTICE A FEW MORE WELL DEVELOPED
CUMULUS AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT LATE DAY.  HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUD LAYER STRUGGLING TO REACH -10C...LIKELY
NOT ENOUGH ICE PROCESS EVEN WITH 100-200 MLCAPE TO THREATEN ANY
LIGHTNING.

WINDS SHOULD STAY UP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH...ANY MAYBE A TOUCH STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE AS 20
TO 30 KNOTS IN WITHIN 1 KFT OF SURFACE DURING POST FRONTAL COLD
ADVECTION PERIOD...SO ADDED A TERRAIN ENHANCED 3-5 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE NIGHT. BLENDED IN TYPICALLY BETTER
CONSRAW MODEL DATA...AND EVEN THIS KEPT READINGS A BIT HIGHER TO
MATCH EXPECTED BREEZIER AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SETTLE IN FOR A PLEASANT AND DRY PERIOD AS
OMEGA BLOCK BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE MID CONUS. SLIGHT COOLING
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE HEART OF THE AREA BY
EVENING...AND STILL OPEN FOR SOME BREEZIER NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY IN PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA.  RIDGE LINGERS EAST OF I 29
ACROSS MAINLY NW IA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN FAVORING SOME OF THE
COLDER GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I 29. MORE SUN...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMING OFF SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN BOOST
READINGS INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  FRIDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO NUDGE EASTWARD OVER THE AREA...EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS WITH A FEW 80 DEGREES READINGS POPPING UP...BUT ALSO LIKELY
DEALING WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS.

THE OVERALL SITUATION BECOMES MUCH MORE MUDDLED BY THE WEEKEND...
WITH OMEGA BLOCK WEAKENING/BREAKDOWN SUBTLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS. MAIN DIFFERENCE LOOKS TO BE HOW STRONG HUDSON BAY
LOW MAINTAINS...AND WHAT KICK WAVE SLIDING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
GIVES TO EASTERN UPPER WAVE PORTION OF OMEGA BLOCK. IMPACT FOR OUR
AREA IS HOW AGGRESSIVELY A LOWER TO MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF/CANADIAN STRONGEST WITH WAVE FLATTENING RIDGE AND FASTEST AND
FURTHEST SOUTHWARD WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION...WHILE GFS A BIT MORE
LEISURELY IN PUSHING BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION ON
EVENTUAL PRECIPITATION THREAT BETWEEN SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS
PARTICULARLY WET THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...AND ECMWF QUICKLY SENDING
FOCUS MORE TOWARD I 80. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP FROM ANY STRONG
CONSENSUS AROUND THE REGION...AND AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY TRENDED FROM
FAIRLY BLANKETED UNIFORM POPS TO SHOW A BIT OF A LESSER CHANCE NORTH
VS. SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WESTERN UPPER LOW BEGINS A
WOBBLE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... AND
LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN/THUNDER DEVELOP JUST
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MORE
PREVALENT CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING BACK SEASONABLE 60S
ON SUNDAY.

WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP ONE EYE ON FRONTAL PROGRESSION ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF DECENT INSTABILITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY
AND POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE LOCALIZED SHEAR...MAINLY LOWER IN THE
WIND PROFILE...COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS IN THE
AREA OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND LIKELY TONIGHT. THERE IS AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHWARD TODAY THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD.
THIS WILL AFFECT THE KHON TAF SITE WITH SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TSRA ALSO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT THE CHANCE FOR TSRA IS TOO SKITTISH TO WARRANT A MENTION
IN THE KHON TAF. FURTHER EAST...SOME INSTABILITY LIGHT SHOWERS
COULD FORM IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON NEAR I 29. BUT THEY TOO
WILL LIKELY BE TOO ISOLATED TO CURRENTLY WARRANT A MENTION IN THE
KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KABR 021128 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
628 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL BE INTO ND LATER THIS MORNING.
UPSTREAM RADARS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP ON LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ND...MOVING SOUTHWARD. AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND EVEN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
SD. LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TODAY...BUT A FEW MEMBERS BRING THINGS INTO
THE JAMES VALLEY. IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS AN EVEN
FURTHER EASTWARD PUSH IN ACTIVITY TODAY AND BRINGS A LINE OF SHOWERS
INTO THE JAMES VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISO/WDLY SCT
AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN CWA TOWARDS I-29.
COOL POCKET OF 500 MB TEMPS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY ALLOWING FOR
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE HRRR CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF THIS EASTWARD PUSH IS A TREND THAT
CONTINUES. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...HAVE SLID POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST
TODAY...BUT KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD PROVIDE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS SO KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...MAKING WAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND LONGEVITY OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
HIGHS. KEPT WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THEY
WILL BE LEAST IMPACTED BY THESE VARIABLES. HIGHS COULD PUSH 70
THERE. 60S ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE BUT RANGE OF 60S ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP DURATION/FREQUENCY. TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN MILD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS A
NICE SURGE OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT 925/850 MB MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. WILL ALSO HAVE GOOD MIXING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST HELPING
TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS DAMPENED AS A
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY SWINGS ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP BETWEEN IT AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

WITH DECENT WAA IN PLACE...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
MORNING...THEN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KMBG...KPIR AND POSSIBLY KABR WILL BE AFFECTED.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 020855
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
355 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE MAIN FEATURE TODAY IS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THIS LOW DOWN INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS IS
EVIDENCED BY FOLLOWING THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL QG FORCING. MOISTURE
IS FAIRLY DEEP WITH THIS SYSTEM IN OUR FAR WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY AROUND THE CHAMBERLAIN AREA...WHERE HIGH
END SCATTERED POPS ARE WARRANTED. BUT HEADING EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDLE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...THE MOISTURE PROFILE SHALLOWS OUT AS YOU
MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE WAVE. THIS WARRANTS JUST LOW END
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED POPS. IN OUR WEST...THE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD
ENOUGH AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER TO WARRANT A MENTION OF TSRA.

A SECOND FEATURE WHICH IS INTERESTING IS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
I 29 CORRIDOR. THE VARIOUS MODELS SHOW ABOUT A 75MB THICK CU DECK
CENTERED NEAR 750MB IN THAT STRIPE...WITH THE MOISTURE MORE SHALLOW
IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN ZONES FROM WINDOM TO STORM LAKE. BELIEVE WITH
THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND REMAINING UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW...
THAT WE WILL CU UP THIS AFTERNOON FROM I 29 EASTWARD...AND THE
MOISTURE DEPTH COULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I 29. THERE IS A SUBTLE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
NOTED AT 500MB VERY CLOSE TO SIOUX FALLS AT 00Z TUE...MAXIMIZED
WHERE THE AIR ALOFT IS THE COLDEST. WITH THE MID AND UPPER FLOW
SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST AT SIOUX CITY...KEPT KSUX DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I 29 COULD HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM ABOUT 3PM TO 6PM. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS...AS WELL AS THE ARW AND NMM.

OTHERWISE OVERALL THOUGH...WITH LIGHT WINDS IT WILL BE A NICE DAY
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE. FOR TONIGHT...IT
SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL AS OUR WESTERN WAVE DEPARTS LEAVING A RISK OF
SOME EARLY EVENING SHOWERS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. THE HEATING DRIVEN
CUMULUS NEAR I 29 WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY. LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

TUESDAY ANOTHER STEP IN THE WARMER DIRECTION WITH A HEALTHY WESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD DROPPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE SCRAPING UP ALONG NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
CWA BORDER TOWARD EVENING...WHICH WILL GIVE A FULL DAY OF MIXING FOR
THE AREA. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EARLY...BUT LOOK FOR A GREATER DEGREE
OF CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
MIXED VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A TAIL OF DIV Q WILL
BRUSH THROUGH SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE COULD BE ENOUGH TO ENTICE A FEW MORE WELL DEVELOPED
CUMULUS AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT LATE DAY.  HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUD LAYER STRUGGLING TO REACH -10C...LIKELY
NOT ENOUGH ICE PROCESS EVEN WITH 100-200 MLCAPE TO THREATEN ANY
LIGHTNING.

WINDS SHOULD STAY UP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH...ANY MAYBE A TOUCH STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE AS 20
TO 30 KNOTS IN WITHIN 1 KFT OF SURFACE DURING POST FRONTAL COLD
ADVECTION PERIOD...SO ADDED A TERRAIN ENHANCED 3-5 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE NIGHT. BLENDED IN TYPICALLY BETTER
CONSRAW MODEL DATA...AND EVEN THIS KEPT READINGS A BIT HIGHER TO
MATCH EXPECTED BREEZIER AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SETTLE IN FOR A PLEASANT AND DRY PERIOD AS
OMEGA BLOCK BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE MID CONUS. SLIGHT COOLING
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE HEART OF THE AREA BY
EVENING...AND STILL OPEN FOR SOME BREEZIER NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY IN PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA.  RIDGE LINGERS EAST OF I 29
ACROSS MAINLY NW IA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN FAVORING SOME OF THE
COLDER GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I 29. MORE SUN...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMING OFF SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN BOOST
READINGS INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  FRIDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO NUDGE EASTWARD OVER THE AREA...EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS WITH A FEW 80 DEGREES READINGS POPPING UP...BUT ALSO LIKELY
DEALING WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS.

THE OVERALL SITUATION BECOMES MUCH MORE MUDDLED BY THE WEEKEND...
WITH OMEGA BLOCK WEAKENING/BREAKDOWN SUBTLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS. MAIN DIFFERENCE LOOKS TO BE HOW STRONG HUDSON BAY
LOW MAINTAINS...AND WHAT KICK WAVE SLIDING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
GIVES TO EASTERN UPPER WAVE PORTION OF OMEGA BLOCK. IMPACT FOR OUR
AREA IS HOW AGGRESSIVELY A LOWER TO MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF/CANADIAN STRONGEST WITH WAVE FLATTENING RIDGE AND FASTEST AND
FURTHEST SOUTHWARD WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION...WHILE GFS A BIT MORE
LEISURELY IN PUSHING BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION ON
EVENTUAL PRECIPITATION THREAT BETWEEN SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS
PARTICULARLY WET THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...AND ECMWF QUICKLY SENDING
FOCUS MORE TOWARD I 80. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP FROM ANY STRONG
CONSENSUS AROUND THE REGION...AND AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY TRENDED FROM
FAIRLY BLANKETED UNIFORM POPS TO SHOW A BIT OF A LESSER CHANCE NORTH
VS. SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WESTERN UPPER LOW BEGINS A
WOBBLE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... AND
LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN/THUNDER DEVELOP JUST
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MORE
PREVALENT CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING BACK SEASONABLE 60S
ON SUNDAY.

WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP ONE EYE ON FRONTAL PROGRESSION ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF DECENT INSTABILITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY
AND POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE LOCALIZED SHEAR...MAINLY LOWER IN THE
WIND PROFILE...COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS IN THE
AREA OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED
AT 936 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WITH THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT...WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AND MAINLY SOUTH I 90. MODELS ARE NOT VERY ENTHUSIASTIC
ABOUT THE FOG POTENTIAL...BUT FEEL THAT THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL
IN LOW LYING AREAS FOR MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY AT KFSD AND KSUX
GIVEN THE WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KABR 020854
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL BE INTO ND LATER THIS MORNING.
UPSTREAM RADARS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP ON LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ND...MOVING SOUTHWARD. AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND EVEN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
SD. LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TODAY...BUT A FEW MEMBERS BRING THINGS INTO
THE JAMES VALLEY. IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS AN EVEN
FURTHER EASTWARD PUSH IN ACTIVITY TODAY AND BRINGS A LINE OF SHOWERS
INTO THE JAMES VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISO/WDLY SCT
AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN CWA TOWARDS I-29.
COOL POCKET OF 500 MB TEMPS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY ALLOWING FOR
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE HRRR CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF THIS EASTWARD PUSH IS A TREND THAT
CONTINUES. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...HAVE SLID POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST
TODAY...BUT KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD PROVIDE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS SO KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...MAKING WAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND LONGEVITY OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
HIGHS. KEPT WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THEY
WILL BE LEAST IMPACTED BY THESE VARIABLES. HIGHS COULD PUSH 70
THERE. 60S ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE BUT RANGE OF 60S ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP DURATION/FREQUENCY. TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN MILD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS A
NICE SURGE OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT 925/850 MB MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. WILL ALSO HAVE GOOD MIXING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST HELPING
TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS DAMPENED AS A
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY SWINGS ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP BETWEEN IT AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

WITH DECENT WAA IN PLACE...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z...THEN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KMBG AND
KPIR WILL BE AFFECTED.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KUNR 020826
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
226 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS COMPACT SHORTWAVE NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. CLOUDS INCREASING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A FEW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SHORTWAVE CROSSES SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULT IN MUCAPE OF
250-500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. RADAR SIMULATIONS FROM SHORT RANGE CAMS SHOW
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL BECOME BREEZY ON THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AND WARMER FOR TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY AS ENERGY FROM
LARGE DESERT SW LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS THIS LOW SLOWLY
MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN SD LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDS
EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KABR 020532 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1232 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

ALTHOUGH UPPER FLOW IS QUITE CONVOLUTED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
DOMINATING AND THE NORTHERN STREAM TWISTED IN KNOTS...MODELS ARE
BECOMING CONSISTENT BRINGING A 95KT JET...ORIENTED FROM OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST...WITH FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF THE LEFT EXIT
REGION...INTO THE FORECAST AREA. NAM PROFILES SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY
AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES OVERHEAD...WITH UPWARDS OF 500J/KG
MUCAPE. SHEAR IS GENERALLY WEAK AS WELL...SO JUST ANTICIPATING SOME
GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSHOWERS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 30S...READINGS IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S.
WILL CONTINUE FROST MENTION FOR MUCH OF THE JAMES VALLEY MONDAY AM.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY MILD THANKS TO 850MB WARM
ADVECTION...AND WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING...WITH
NAM PROFILES MIXING TO 20G30KTS.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED...THE FORECAST IS DRY
AND WARM WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY EDGES ITS WAY EAST INTO
THE DAKOTAS. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN SHOWS WARMING
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH FRIDAY CURRENTLY
SHOWCASED AS THE WARMEST DAY IN THE OUT PERIODS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SIGNALING A
COOL DOWN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALOFT...HEIGHTS ARE FALLING
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOTED ON THE
INCREASE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z...THEN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KMBG AND
KPIR WILL BE AFFECTED.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KUNR 020436
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1036 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPPER RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE CNDN ROCKIES...WITH
AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SW SETTING UP A REX BLOCKING PATTERN.
1028MB SURFACE HIGH SITS ACROSS THE NRN TO CNTRL PLAINS...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE 50S TO
LOW 60S. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 30S. COMPACT UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DROP SOUTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY...THROUGH THE SRN
CNDN PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTN/EVNG. PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT. WITH THIS WAVE...LOOKS LIKE N/NW WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
DURING THE DAY. DID ALSO DROP HIGHS SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHER CLOUD
COVER...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND DOMINATE OUR WX FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RESULT WILL
BE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
A LARGE DESERT SW LOW FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE LOW
SLOWLY MIGRATING NEWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST PLACES. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SCT-
ISOLD SHRA/TS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL
MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KFSD 020244
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
944 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

STILL SEEING A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT EXPECT THESE TO DISSIPATE AS WE MOVE TOWARD
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DYING WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GENERALLY COOLER NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST IN LOWER LYING
AREAS OF THE WESTERN HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WITH
THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE FROST AM THINKING THAT A HEADLINE WILL NOT
BE NEEDED. THE OTHER THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON TONIGHT WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND.
MODEL VISIBILITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST WIDESPREAD FOG OVERNIGHT
SO STAYED WITH PATCHY WORDING...CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH SOME CU DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO A THICKER CLOUD DECK THROUGH
THE WESTERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SLIGHT INSTABILITY OVER THAT AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. THERMAL
PROFILES DO WARM ON MONDAY...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXIT TO
THE SOUTH LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BUT
ALL SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. LOWS MAINLY 39 TO 44.

WEAK CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER MAINLY SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WAVE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH
MINNESOTA BUT AT THIS TIME NOT WORTH A MENTION OF ANYTHING.
OTHERWISE AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO WINDS OF 10 TO
20 MPH...LIKELY SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...THE WARMER READINGS
CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 14 JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK BACK DOOR COOL FRONT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. SHOULD
ALSO SEE A LOT OF SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN IN PLACE THURSDAY WITH THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. HOWEVER THE RIDGING TO THE WEST WILL
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND AS WAS
SUSPECTED WITH YESTERDAYS TOO AGGRESSIVE ECMWF...THE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE WESTERN TROUGH TO THE WEST THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY SO EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING
CONDITIONS AS WELL. RIGHT NOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY IS THE
TRICKY CALL WHEN COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO
NEBRASKA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE RIDING THE
RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF IS
STRONGEST AND FASTEST WITH THIS WAVE...THUS BRINGING THE COOLER AIR
TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BY MID DAY...WHILE THE GFS IS A
BIT SLOWER AND WOULD ALLOW MORE WARMING TO OCCUR. THE CANADIAN IS
EVEN SLOWER WITH THIS COLDER AIR AND WOULD NOT BRING THE COOLER AIR
SOUTH UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL COOL THE NORTHERN CWA A
BIT AND KEEP THE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR SOUTH. WHILE THE
THREAT IS TOUGH TO DISCERN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME VARIABILITY IN
THE MODELS...AIMING FOR A LOW END THREAT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SOME
OF THIS WILL DEPEND UPON THE OUTCOME OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED
AT 936 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WITH THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT...WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AND MAINLY SOUTH I 90. MODELS ARE NOT VERY ENTHUSIASTIC
ABOUT THE FOG POTENTIAL...BUT FEEL THAT THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL
IN LOW LYING AREAS FOR MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY AT KFSD AND KSUX
GIVEN THE WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KUNR 012328
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
528 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPPER RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE CNDN ROCKIES...WITH
AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SW SETTING UP A REX BLOCKING PATTERN.
1028MB SURFACE HIGH SITS ACROSS THE NRN TO CNTRL PLAINS...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE 50S TO
LOW 60S. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 30S. COMPACT UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DROP SOUTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY...THROUGH THE SRN
CNDN PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTN/EVNG. PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT. WITH THIS WAVE...LOOKS LIKE N/NW WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
DURING THE DAY. DID ALSO DROP HIGHS SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHER CLOUD
COVER...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND DOMINATE OUR WX FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RESULT WILL
BE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
A LARGE DESERT SW LOW FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE LOW
SLOWLY MIGRATING NEWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING SCT-ISOLD SHRA/TS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY TS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KABR 012327 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

ALTHOUGH UPPER FLOW IS QUITE CONVOLUTED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
DOMINATING AND THE NORTHERN STREAM TWISTED IN KNOTS...MODELS ARE
BECOMING CONSISTENT BRINGING A 95KT JET...ORIENTED FROM OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST...WITH FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF THE LEFT EXIT
REGION...INTO THE FORECAST AREA. NAM PROFILES SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY
AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES OVERHEAD...WITH UPWARDS OF 500J/KG
MUCAPE. SHEAR IS GENERALLY WEAK AS WELL...SO JUST ANTICIPATING SOME
GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSHOWERS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 30S...READINGS IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S.
WILL CONTINUE FROST MENTION FOR MUCH OF THE JAMES VALLEY MONDAY AM.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY MILD THANKS TO 850MB WARM
ADVECTION...AND WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING...WITH
NAM PROFILES MIXING TO 20G30KTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED...THE FORECAST IS DRY
AND WARM WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY EDGES ITS WAY EAST INTO
THE DAKOTAS. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN SHOWS WARMING
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH FRIDAY CURRENTLY
SHOWCASED AS THE WARMEST DAY IN THE OUT PERIODS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SIGNALING A
COOL DOWN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALOFT...HEIGHTS ARE FALLING
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOTED ON THE
INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. INSTABILITY
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z NEAR KMBG/KPIR BUT AREAL EXTENT IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KFSD 012326
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
626 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

STILL SEEING A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT EXPECT THESE TO DISSIPATE AS WE MOVE TOWARD
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DYING WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GENERALLY COOLER NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST IN LOWER LYING
AREAS OF THE WESTERN HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WITH
THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE FROST AM THINKING THAT A HEADLINE WILL NOT
BE NEEDED. THE OTHER THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON TONIGHT WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND.
MODEL VISIBILITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST WIDESPREAD FOG OVERNIGHT
SO STAYED WITH PATCHY WORDING...CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH SOME CU DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO A THICKER CLOUD DECK THROUGH
THE WESTERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SLIGHT INSTABILITY OVER THAT AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. THERMAL
PROFILES DO WARM ON MONDAY...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXIT TO
THE SOUTH LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BUT
ALL SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. LOWS MAINLY 39 TO 44.

WEAK CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER MAINLY SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WAVE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH
MINNESOTA BUT AT THIS TIME NOT WORTH A MENTION OF ANYTHING.
OTHERWISE AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO WINDS OF 10 TO
20 MPH...LIKELY SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...THE WARMER READINGS
CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 14 JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK BACK DOOR COOL FRONT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. SHOULD
ALSO SEE A LOT OF SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN IN PLACE THURSDAY WITH THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. HOWEVER THE RIDGING TO THE WEST WILL
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND AS WAS
SUSPECTED WITH YESTERDAYS TOO AGGRESSIVE ECMWF...THE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE WESTERN TROUGH TO THE WEST THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY SO EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING
CONDITIONS AS WELL. RIGHT NOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY IS THE
TRICKY CALL WHEN COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO
NEBRASKA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE RIDING THE
RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF IS
STRONGEST AND FASTEST WITH THIS WAVE...THUS BRINGING THE COOLER AIR
TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BY MID DAY...WHILE THE GFS IS A
BIT SLOWER AND WOULD ALLOW MORE WARMING TO OCCUR. THE CANADIAN IS
EVEN SLOWER WITH THIS COLDER AIR AND WOULD NOT BRING THE COOLER AIR
SOUTH UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL COOL THE NORTHERN CWA A
BIT AND KEEP THE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR SOUTH. WHILE THE
THREAT IS TOUGH TO DISCERN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME VARIABILITY IN
THE MODELS...AIMING FOR A LOW END THREAT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SOME
OF THIS WILL DEPEND UPON THE OUTCOME OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KUNR 012051
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
251 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPPER RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE CNDN ROCKIES...WITH
AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SW SETTING UP A REX BLOCKING PATTERN.
1028MB SURFACE HIGH SITS ACROSS THE NRN TO CNTRL PLAINS...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE 50S TO
LOW 60S. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 30S. COMPACT UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DROP SOUTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY...THROUGH THE SRN
CNDN PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTN/EVNG. PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT. WITH THIS WAVE...LOOKS LIKE N/NW WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
DURING THE DAY. DID ALSO DROP HIGHS SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHER CLOUD
COVER...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND DOMINATE OUR WX FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RESULT WILL
BE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
A LARGE DESERT SW LOW FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE LOW
SLOWLY MIGRATING NEWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 012051
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
251 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPPER RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE CNDN ROCKIES...WITH
AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SW SETTING UP A REX BLOCKING PATTERN.
1028MB SURFACE HIGH SITS ACROSS THE NRN TO CNTRL PLAINS...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE 50S TO
LOW 60S. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 30S. COMPACT UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DROP SOUTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY...THROUGH THE SRN
CNDN PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTN/EVNG. PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT. WITH THIS WAVE...LOOKS LIKE N/NW WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
DURING THE DAY. DID ALSO DROP HIGHS SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHER CLOUD
COVER...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND DOMINATE OUR WX FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RESULT WILL
BE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
A LARGE DESERT SW LOW FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE LOW
SLOWLY MIGRATING NEWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 012051
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
251 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPPER RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE CNDN ROCKIES...WITH
AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SW SETTING UP A REX BLOCKING PATTERN.
1028MB SURFACE HIGH SITS ACROSS THE NRN TO CNTRL PLAINS...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE 50S TO
LOW 60S. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 30S. COMPACT UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DROP SOUTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY...THROUGH THE SRN
CNDN PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTN/EVNG. PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT. WITH THIS WAVE...LOOKS LIKE N/NW WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
DURING THE DAY. DID ALSO DROP HIGHS SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHER CLOUD
COVER...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND DOMINATE OUR WX FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RESULT WILL
BE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
A LARGE DESERT SW LOW FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE LOW
SLOWLY MIGRATING NEWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 012051
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
251 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPPER RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE CNDN ROCKIES...WITH
AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SW SETTING UP A REX BLOCKING PATTERN.
1028MB SURFACE HIGH SITS ACROSS THE NRN TO CNTRL PLAINS...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE 50S TO
LOW 60S. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 30S. COMPACT UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DROP SOUTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY...THROUGH THE SRN
CNDN PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTN/EVNG. PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT. WITH THIS WAVE...LOOKS LIKE N/NW WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
DURING THE DAY. DID ALSO DROP HIGHS SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHER CLOUD
COVER...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND DOMINATE OUR WX FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RESULT WILL
BE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
A LARGE DESERT SW LOW FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE LOW
SLOWLY MIGRATING NEWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KABR 012016
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

ALTHOUGH UPPER FLOW IS QUITE CONVOLUTED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
DOMINATING AND THE NORTHERN STREAM TWISTED IN KNOTS...MODELS ARE
BECOMING CONSISTENT BRINGING A 95KT JET...ORIENTED FROM OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST...WITH FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF THE LEFT EXIT
REGION...INTO THE FORECAST AREA. NAM PROFILES SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY
AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES OVERHEAD...WITH UPWARDS OF 500J/KG
MUCAPE. SHEAR IS GENERALLY WEAK AS WELL...SO JUST ANTICIPATING SOME
GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSHOWERS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 30S...READINGS IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S.
WILL CONTINUE FROST MENTION FOR MUCH OF THE JAMES VALLEY MONDAY AM.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY MILD THANKS TO 850MB WARM
ADVECTION...AND WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING...WITH
NAM PROFILES MIXING TO 20G30KTS.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED...THE FORECAST IS DRY
AND WARM WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY EDGES ITS WAY EAST INTO
THE DAKOTAS. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN SHOWS WARMING
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH FRIDAY CURRENTLY
SHOWCASED AS THE WARMEST DAY IN THE OUT PERIODS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SIGNALING A
COOL DOWN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALOFT...HEIGHTS ARE FALLING
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOTED ON THE
INCREASE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 012016
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

ALTHOUGH UPPER FLOW IS QUITE CONVOLUTED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
DOMINATING AND THE NORTHERN STREAM TWISTED IN KNOTS...MODELS ARE
BECOMING CONSISTENT BRINGING A 95KT JET...ORIENTED FROM OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST...WITH FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF THE LEFT EXIT
REGION...INTO THE FORECAST AREA. NAM PROFILES SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY
AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES OVERHEAD...WITH UPWARDS OF 500J/KG
MUCAPE. SHEAR IS GENERALLY WEAK AS WELL...SO JUST ANTICIPATING SOME
GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSHOWERS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 30S...READINGS IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S.
WILL CONTINUE FROST MENTION FOR MUCH OF THE JAMES VALLEY MONDAY AM.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY MILD THANKS TO 850MB WARM
ADVECTION...AND WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING...WITH
NAM PROFILES MIXING TO 20G30KTS.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED...THE FORECAST IS DRY
AND WARM WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY EDGES ITS WAY EAST INTO
THE DAKOTAS. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN SHOWS WARMING
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH FRIDAY CURRENTLY
SHOWCASED AS THE WARMEST DAY IN THE OUT PERIODS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SIGNALING A
COOL DOWN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALOFT...HEIGHTS ARE FALLING
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOTED ON THE
INCREASE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 011944
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
244 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

STILL SEEING A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT EXPECT THESE TO DISSIPATE AS WE MOVE TOWARD
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DYING WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GENERALLY COOLER NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST IN LOWER LYING
AREAS OF THE WESTERN HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WITH
THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE FROST AM THINKING THAT A HEADLINE WILL NOT
BE NEEDED. THE OTHER THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON TONIGHT WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND.
MODEL VISIBILITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST WIDESPREAD FOG OVERNIGHT
SO STAYED WITH PATCHY WORDING...CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH SOME CU DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO A THICKER CLOUD DECK THROUGH
THE WESTERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SLIGHT INSTABILITY OVER THAT AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. THERMAL
PROFILES DO WARM ON MONDAY...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXIT TO
THE SOUTH LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BUT
ALL SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. LOWS MAINLY 39 TO 44.

WEAK CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER MAINLY SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WAVE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH
MINNESOTA BUT AT THIS TIME NOT WORTH A MENTION OF ANYTHING.
OTHERWISE AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO WINDS OF 10 TO
20 MPH...LIKELY SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...THE WARMER READINGS
CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 14 JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK BACK DOOR COOL FRONT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. SHOULD
ALSO SEE A LOT OF SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN IN PLACE THURSDAY WITH THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. HOWEVER THE RIDGING TO THE WEST WILL
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND AS WAS
SUSPECTED WITH YESTERDAYS TOO AGGRESSIVE ECMWF...THE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE WESTERN TROUGH TO THE WEST THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY SO EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING
CONDITIONS AS WELL. RIGHT NOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY IS THE
TRICKY CALL WHEN COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO
NEBRASKA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE RIDING THE
RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF IS
STRONGEST AND FASTEST WITH THIS WAVE...THUS BRINGING THE COOLER AIR
TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BY MID DAY...WHILE THE GFS IS A
BIT SLOWER AND WOULD ALLOW MORE WARMING TO OCCUR. THE CANADIAN IS
EVEN SLOWER WITH THIS COLDER AIR AND WOULD NOT BRING THE COOLER AIR
SOUTH UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL COOL THE NORTHERN CWA A
BIT AND KEEP THE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR SOUTH. WHILE THE
THREAT IS TOUGH TO DISCERN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME VARIABILITY IN
THE MODELS...AIMING FOR A LOW END THREAT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SOME
OF THIS WILL DEPEND UPON THE OUTCOME OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER AROUND KSUX INTO MID AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TONIGHT
WHEN WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND WITH WET GROUND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT
SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KABR 011724 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES OF NOTE FOR TODAYS FORECAST

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS
ALSO BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. COULD BE FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK FOR SOME LOCATIONS
BY SUNRISE. LOOKING AT A PLEASANT DAY TODAY AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE
60S UNDER FAIR SKIES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM CENTERS AROUND MONDAY AND THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THAT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE REGION. EC IS REMAINING CONSISTENT
AND CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS WAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
WITH GREATEST PRECIP POTENTIAL MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES
VALLEY INTO CENTRAL SD. THE GFS SHOWS THE SAME SOLUTION AS THE EC
AND THE NAM LOOKS TO BE FINALLY JUMPING ON BOARD AS THE 06Z RUN COMES
IN EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY. WILL SEE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POCKET ALOFT DROPS SOUTH. LOOKING AT MAINLY
SHOWERS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS AS WELL AND LATER
SHIFTS MAY OPT TO ADD SOME THUNDER. SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY BE OUT OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN PLEASANT
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S...DESPITE THE PRECIP CHANCES AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

ON TUESDAY...MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT SPREADS OVER THE CWA WITH GOOD
WEST TO NORTHWEST MIXING WINDS DEVELOPING. SHOULD BE A VERY MILD DAY
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DID INCREASE WIND
SPEEDS A BIT ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINS...THEN QUICKLY DROPS SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. THE HIGH WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY
MORNING. RETURN FLOW THEN DEVELOPS...ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO BE
USHERED INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER
AIR...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 011724 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES OF NOTE FOR TODAYS FORECAST

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS
ALSO BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. COULD BE FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK FOR SOME LOCATIONS
BY SUNRISE. LOOKING AT A PLEASANT DAY TODAY AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE
60S UNDER FAIR SKIES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM CENTERS AROUND MONDAY AND THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THAT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE REGION. EC IS REMAINING CONSISTENT
AND CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS WAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
WITH GREATEST PRECIP POTENTIAL MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES
VALLEY INTO CENTRAL SD. THE GFS SHOWS THE SAME SOLUTION AS THE EC
AND THE NAM LOOKS TO BE FINALLY JUMPING ON BOARD AS THE 06Z RUN COMES
IN EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY. WILL SEE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POCKET ALOFT DROPS SOUTH. LOOKING AT MAINLY
SHOWERS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS AS WELL AND LATER
SHIFTS MAY OPT TO ADD SOME THUNDER. SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY BE OUT OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN PLEASANT
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S...DESPITE THE PRECIP CHANCES AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

ON TUESDAY...MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT SPREADS OVER THE CWA WITH GOOD
WEST TO NORTHWEST MIXING WINDS DEVELOPING. SHOULD BE A VERY MILD DAY
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DID INCREASE WIND
SPEEDS A BIT ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINS...THEN QUICKLY DROPS SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. THE HIGH WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY
MORNING. RETURN FLOW THEN DEVELOPS...ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO BE
USHERED INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER
AIR...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 011710
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1210 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VERY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS AREAS BASICALLY INCLUDING THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS
MAXIMIZED IN THE 850-800MB LAYER WHERE PLENTY OF MOISTURE RESIDES IN
THESE LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION TO THIS...A STRIPE OF THETAE
RIDGING...ALMOST A TROWAL LIKE FEATURE...CONTINUES TO WRAP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST...AND IS VERY SLOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. ADD SOME UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...HAVE HIGH POPS LINGERING ACROSS OUR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS TURNS MORE TO A
SHOWERY EVENT. UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES...AND SOUNDINGS BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE FROM THE SURFACE TO 850MB. THEREFORE HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD...EXTREME NORTHEAST NEB...AND
MUCH OF NORTHWEST IA WHERE 4KM DEEP MOISTURE STILL RESIDES. AT THE
TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER...TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO -10C. THIS IS
BORDERLINE WHETHER ANY ICE CAN GET INTRODUCED IN THE CLOUD
LAYER...SO LEFT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD VARY QUITE A BIT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. ACTUALLY
THE MAV GUIDANCE LOOKED PRETTY GOOD TODAY...GIVING HURON THE WARMEST
READING AT 62. CONVERSELY WHERE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS DEEP THROUGH
THE DAY...STORM LAKE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 50 DEGREES.
WHERE THE AIR IS DRIER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...THE
SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A DECENT AMOUNT OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS STANDS TO REASON OVER WET GROUND...
AND IT COULD BE ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. THUS EXCEPT FOR HURON...WANTED TO KEEP EVERYONE ELSE IN
THE UPPER 50S THROUGH OUR NORTH AND WEST.

TONIGHT...WE STILL HAVE A SECONDARY WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST IA...WITH ANOTHER ONE DIVING DOWN INTO ND FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. BUT AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...
GIVING LIGHT WINDS. SKIES SHOULD BE PRETTY CLEAR...EXCEPT IN
NORTHWEST IA WHERE SOME CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER FOR A WHILE BEFORE
CLEARING OUT LATER. BECAUSE OF THIS...LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
FOG FORMATION FOR OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES NOTING THE WET GROUND AND LATER
CLEARING. ALSO THREW IN SOME PATCHY FROST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WHO SHOULD DIP DOWN INTO THE 34 TO 35
DEGREE RANGE. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAV GUIDANCE CAPTURED THE LOWS
PRETTY GOOD AS WELL AS CONSENSUS RAW MODEL VALUES. AT THIS TIME...
DO NOT BELIEVE THE FROST POTENTIAL IS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
HEADLINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A COOL START TO MONDAY WITH SOME PATCHES OF FROST TO GREET THE DAY
NORTH OF I-90...BUT SOME EARLY DAY SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO QUICKLY
BRING TEMPS UP. SUNSHINE WILL FADE...HOWEVER...BETWEEN DEVELOPING OF
SOME DAYTIME HEATING CUMULUS BY MIDDAY...AND ALSO FROM UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS FEATURE...CURRENTLY OVER
FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF SASKATCHEWAN...IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  FAIRLY
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...AND SEEMS TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH MORE OF A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THAN ANY
MODEL SOLUTION OTHER THAN THE CANADIAN REGIONAL WOULD INDICATE.
AS A RESULT...DIURNAL CYCLE AIDS IN SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION...
AND AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY LOOK TO GENERATE UP TO 50-100
J/KG MLCAPE. HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF I-
29 DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND LINGERING UNTIL THE EARLY
EVENING EXIT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WITH INSTABILITY AND LIKELIHOOD
OF CLOUD BEARING TEMPS SUPPORTING ICE GROWTH...HAVE ALSO MENTIONED A
SLIGHT THREAT FOR THUNDER IN SOME AREAS.

WEAK FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR...BUT SOUTHWARD
SINKING RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF SLIGHTLY INCREASED
WESTERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION IN SW MN. AT LAST...TUESDAY
SHOULD MARK OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER DAY... WITH TEMPS IN A
DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ENVIRONMENT FAVORING FULLY MIXED READINGS INTO
THE 70S.

STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...
DRIVING A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA. TAIL OF STRONGER
DIV Q WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA ALONG WITH FAIRLY LIMITED
MOISTURE...SO HAVE KEPT FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY. THERE IS 20-25 KNOTS OF
WIND NOT FAR OFF SURFACE IN ONLY A WEAKLY STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT...
SO SOME CONCERN OF A BIT STRONGER NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL WIND AT 15
TO 25 MPH FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

LATER ON THROUGH THE FORECAST...DEEPENING WAVES TOWARD THE EASTERN
U.S. AND WESTERN U.S. SET UP A STRONG OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN.
TRANSITIONING INTO THIS PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK BELOW NORMAL AS SURFACE RIDGE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE SHADED COOLER THAN INITIALIZATION
BLEND WED NIGHT...TAKING SOME TEMPS ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR
A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IF TEMPS TAKE TREND DOWN A BIT MORE WITH A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FIND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
ON FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE ALL 70S BY FRIDAY...WITH SOME UPPER 60S
NEAR/EAST OF I-29 ON THURSDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW MODELS TREAT
A WAVE CROSSING THE RIDGE SATURDAY...WITH ECMWF MUCH MORE
FLATTENING...AND DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ALL THE WAY TO
NEAR I-80 BY LATE SATURDAY...WHILE GFS AND MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS MUCH WEAKER AND KEEPING ORPHANED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL NORTH.
ALL IN ALL...SHOULD ONLY BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST
THROUGH SATURDAY AS BLOCK PERHAPS SHIFTS JUST A BIT EASTWARD...AND
DAYS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WORK TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. HARD TO PICTURE MUCH HAPPENING GIVEN THE WARMER PLUME OF
TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER AROUND KSUX INTO MID AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TONIGHT
WHEN WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND WITH WET GROUND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT
SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 011710
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1210 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VERY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS AREAS BASICALLY INCLUDING THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS
MAXIMIZED IN THE 850-800MB LAYER WHERE PLENTY OF MOISTURE RESIDES IN
THESE LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION TO THIS...A STRIPE OF THETAE
RIDGING...ALMOST A TROWAL LIKE FEATURE...CONTINUES TO WRAP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST...AND IS VERY SLOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. ADD SOME UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...HAVE HIGH POPS LINGERING ACROSS OUR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS TURNS MORE TO A
SHOWERY EVENT. UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES...AND SOUNDINGS BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE FROM THE SURFACE TO 850MB. THEREFORE HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD...EXTREME NORTHEAST NEB...AND
MUCH OF NORTHWEST IA WHERE 4KM DEEP MOISTURE STILL RESIDES. AT THE
TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER...TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO -10C. THIS IS
BORDERLINE WHETHER ANY ICE CAN GET INTRODUCED IN THE CLOUD
LAYER...SO LEFT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD VARY QUITE A BIT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. ACTUALLY
THE MAV GUIDANCE LOOKED PRETTY GOOD TODAY...GIVING HURON THE WARMEST
READING AT 62. CONVERSELY WHERE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS DEEP THROUGH
THE DAY...STORM LAKE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 50 DEGREES.
WHERE THE AIR IS DRIER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...THE
SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A DECENT AMOUNT OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS STANDS TO REASON OVER WET GROUND...
AND IT COULD BE ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. THUS EXCEPT FOR HURON...WANTED TO KEEP EVERYONE ELSE IN
THE UPPER 50S THROUGH OUR NORTH AND WEST.

TONIGHT...WE STILL HAVE A SECONDARY WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST IA...WITH ANOTHER ONE DIVING DOWN INTO ND FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. BUT AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...
GIVING LIGHT WINDS. SKIES SHOULD BE PRETTY CLEAR...EXCEPT IN
NORTHWEST IA WHERE SOME CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER FOR A WHILE BEFORE
CLEARING OUT LATER. BECAUSE OF THIS...LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
FOG FORMATION FOR OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES NOTING THE WET GROUND AND LATER
CLEARING. ALSO THREW IN SOME PATCHY FROST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WHO SHOULD DIP DOWN INTO THE 34 TO 35
DEGREE RANGE. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAV GUIDANCE CAPTURED THE LOWS
PRETTY GOOD AS WELL AS CONSENSUS RAW MODEL VALUES. AT THIS TIME...
DO NOT BELIEVE THE FROST POTENTIAL IS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
HEADLINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A COOL START TO MONDAY WITH SOME PATCHES OF FROST TO GREET THE DAY
NORTH OF I-90...BUT SOME EARLY DAY SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO QUICKLY
BRING TEMPS UP. SUNSHINE WILL FADE...HOWEVER...BETWEEN DEVELOPING OF
SOME DAYTIME HEATING CUMULUS BY MIDDAY...AND ALSO FROM UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS FEATURE...CURRENTLY OVER
FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF SASKATCHEWAN...IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  FAIRLY
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...AND SEEMS TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH MORE OF A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THAN ANY
MODEL SOLUTION OTHER THAN THE CANADIAN REGIONAL WOULD INDICATE.
AS A RESULT...DIURNAL CYCLE AIDS IN SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION...
AND AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY LOOK TO GENERATE UP TO 50-100
J/KG MLCAPE. HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF I-
29 DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND LINGERING UNTIL THE EARLY
EVENING EXIT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WITH INSTABILITY AND LIKELIHOOD
OF CLOUD BEARING TEMPS SUPPORTING ICE GROWTH...HAVE ALSO MENTIONED A
SLIGHT THREAT FOR THUNDER IN SOME AREAS.

WEAK FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR...BUT SOUTHWARD
SINKING RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF SLIGHTLY INCREASED
WESTERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION IN SW MN. AT LAST...TUESDAY
SHOULD MARK OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER DAY... WITH TEMPS IN A
DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ENVIRONMENT FAVORING FULLY MIXED READINGS INTO
THE 70S.

STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...
DRIVING A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA. TAIL OF STRONGER
DIV Q WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA ALONG WITH FAIRLY LIMITED
MOISTURE...SO HAVE KEPT FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY. THERE IS 20-25 KNOTS OF
WIND NOT FAR OFF SURFACE IN ONLY A WEAKLY STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT...
SO SOME CONCERN OF A BIT STRONGER NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL WIND AT 15
TO 25 MPH FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

LATER ON THROUGH THE FORECAST...DEEPENING WAVES TOWARD THE EASTERN
U.S. AND WESTERN U.S. SET UP A STRONG OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN.
TRANSITIONING INTO THIS PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK BELOW NORMAL AS SURFACE RIDGE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE SHADED COOLER THAN INITIALIZATION
BLEND WED NIGHT...TAKING SOME TEMPS ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR
A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IF TEMPS TAKE TREND DOWN A BIT MORE WITH A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FIND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
ON FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE ALL 70S BY FRIDAY...WITH SOME UPPER 60S
NEAR/EAST OF I-29 ON THURSDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW MODELS TREAT
A WAVE CROSSING THE RIDGE SATURDAY...WITH ECMWF MUCH MORE
FLATTENING...AND DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ALL THE WAY TO
NEAR I-80 BY LATE SATURDAY...WHILE GFS AND MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS MUCH WEAKER AND KEEPING ORPHANED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL NORTH.
ALL IN ALL...SHOULD ONLY BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST
THROUGH SATURDAY AS BLOCK PERHAPS SHIFTS JUST A BIT EASTWARD...AND
DAYS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WORK TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. HARD TO PICTURE MUCH HAPPENING GIVEN THE WARMER PLUME OF
TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER AROUND KSUX INTO MID AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TONIGHT
WHEN WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND WITH WET GROUND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT
SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KUNR 011651
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1051 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW ACROSS MISSOURI...WITH 1027MB HIGH
ACROSS MONTANA. REGIONAL RADAR HAS SOME LIGHT RAIN STILL FALLING
ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
RAIN SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

ON MONDAY...SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MODELS
HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE OVER
THE PAST TWO DAY. WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WEATHER WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND HIGHS IN
THE 70S. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HILLS ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...OMEGA-BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS AS
A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN CA. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
LOW SHIFTING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND UPPER ENERGY ROTATING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW THIS LOW OVERTAKING THE RIDGE...WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KABR 011618
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1118 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES OF NOTE FOR TODAYS FORECAST

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS
ALSO BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. COULD BE FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK FOR SOME LOCATIONS
BY SUNRISE. LOOKING AT A PLEASANT DAY TODAY AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE
60S UNDER FAIR SKIES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM CENTERS AROUND MONDAY AND THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THAT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE REGION. EC IS REMAINING CONSISTENT
AND CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS WAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
WITH GREATEST PRECIP POTENTIAL MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES
VALLEY INTO CENTRAL SD. THE GFS SHOWS THE SAME SOLUTION AS THE EC
AND THE NAM LOOKS TO BE FINALLY JUMPING ON BOARD AS THE 06Z RUN COMES
IN EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY. WILL SEE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POCKET ALOFT DROPS SOUTH. LOOKING AT MAINLY
SHOWERS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS AS WELL AND LATER
SHIFTS MAY OPT TO ADD SOME THUNDER. SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY BE OUT OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN PLEASANT
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S...DESPITE THE PRECIP CHANCES AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

ON TUESDAY...MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT SPREADS OVER THE CWA WITH GOOD
WEST TO NORTHWEST MIXING WINDS DEVELOPING. SHOULD BE A VERY MILD DAY
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DID INCREASE WIND
SPEEDS A BIT ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINS...THEN QUICKLY DROPS SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. THE HIGH WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY
MORNING. RETURN FLOW THEN DEVELOPS...ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO BE
USHERED INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER
AIR...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 011130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VERY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS AREAS BASICALLY INCLUDING THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS
MAXIMIZED IN THE 850-800MB LAYER WHERE PLENTY OF MOISTURE RESIDES IN
THESE LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION TO THIS...A STRIPE OF THETAE
RIDGING...ALMOST A TROWAL LIKE FEATURE...CONTINUES TO WRAP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST...AND IS VERY SLOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. ADD SOME UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...HAVE HIGH POPS LINGERING ACROSS OUR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS TURNS MORE TO A
SHOWERY EVENT. UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES...AND SOUNDINGS BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE FROM THE SURFACE TO 850MB. THEREFORE HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD...EXTREME NORTHEAST NEB...AND
MUCH OF NORTHWEST IA WHERE 4KM DEEP MOISTURE STILL RESIDES. AT THE
TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER...TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO -10C. THIS IS
BORDERLINE WHETHER ANY ICE CAN GET INTRODUCED IN THE CLOUD
LAYER...SO LEFT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD VARY QUITE A BIT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. ACTUALLY
THE MAV GUIDANCE LOOKED PRETTY GOOD TODAY...GIVING HURON THE WARMEST
READING AT 62. CONVERSELY WHERE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS DEEP THROUGH
THE DAY...STORM LAKE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 50 DEGREES.
WHERE THE AIR IS DRIER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...THE
SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A DECENT AMOUNT OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS STANDS TO REASON OVER WET GROUND...
AND IT COULD BE ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. THUS EXCEPT FOR HURON...WANTED TO KEEP EVERYONE ELSE IN
THE UPPER 50S THROUGH OUR NORTH AND WEST.

TONIGHT...WE STILL HAVE A SECONDARY WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST IA...WITH ANOTHER ONE DIVING DOWN INTO ND FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. BUT AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...
GIVING LIGHT WINDS. SKIES SHOULD BE PRETTY CLEAR...EXCEPT IN
NORTHWEST IA WHERE SOME CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER FOR A WHILE BEFORE
CLEARING OUT LATER. BECAUSE OF THIS...LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
FOG FORMATION FOR OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES NOTING THE WET GROUND AND LATER
CLEARING. ALSO THREW IN SOME PATCHY FROST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WHO SHOULD DIP DOWN INTO THE 34 TO 35
DEGREE RANGE. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAV GUIDANCE CAPTURED THE LOWS
PRETTY GOOD AS WELL AS CONSENSUS RAW MODEL VALUES. AT THIS TIME...
DO NOT BELIEVE THE FROST POTENTIAL IS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
HEADLINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A COOL START TO MONDAY WITH SOME PATCHES OF FROST TO GREET THE DAY
NORTH OF I-90...BUT SOME EARLY DAY SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO QUICKLY
BRING TEMPS UP. SUNSHINE WILL FADE...HOWEVER...BETWEEN DEVELOPING OF
SOME DAYTIME HEATING CUMULUS BY MIDDAY...AND ALSO FROM UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS FEATURE...CURRENTLY OVER
FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF SASKATCHEWAN...IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  FAIRLY
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...AND SEEMS TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH MORE OF A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THAN ANY
MODEL SOLUTION OTHER THAN THE CANADIAN REGIONAL WOULD INDICATE.
AS A RESULT...DIURNAL CYCLE AIDS IN SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION...
AND AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY LOOK TO GENERATE UP TO 50-100
J/KG MLCAPE. HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF I-
29 DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND LINGERING UNTIL THE EARLY
EVENING EXIT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WITH INSTABILITY AND LIKELIHOOD
OF CLOUD BEARING TEMPS SUPPORTING ICE GROWTH...HAVE ALSO MENTIONED A
SLIGHT THREAT FOR THUNDER IN SOME AREAS.

WEAK FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR...BUT SOUTHWARD
SINKING RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF SLIGHTLY INCREASED
WESTERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION IN SW MN. AT LAST...TUESDAY
SHOULD MARK OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER DAY... WITH TEMPS IN A
DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ENVIRONMENT FAVORING FULLY MIXED READINGS INTO
THE 70S.

STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...
DRIVING A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA. TAIL OF STRONGER
DIV Q WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA ALONG WITH FAIRLY LIMITED
MOISTURE...SO HAVE KEPT FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY. THERE IS 20-25 KNOTS OF
WIND NOT FAR OFF SURFACE IN ONLY A WEAKLY STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT...
SO SOME CONCERN OF A BIT STRONGER NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL WIND AT 15
TO 25 MPH FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

LATER ON THROUGH THE FORECAST...DEEPENING WAVES TOWARD THE EASTERN
U.S. AND WESTERN U.S. SET UP A STRONG OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN.
TRANSITIONING INTO THIS PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK BELOW NORMAL AS SURFACE RIDGE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE SHADED COOLER THAN INITIALIZATION
BLEND WED NIGHT...TAKING SOME TEMPS ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR
A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IF TEMPS TAKE TREND DOWN A BIT MORE WITH A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FIND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
ON FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE ALL 70S BY FRIDAY...WITH SOME UPPER 60S
NEAR/EAST OF I-29 ON THURSDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW MODELS TREAT
A WAVE CROSSING THE RIDGE SATURDAY...WITH ECMWF MUCH MORE
FLATTENING...AND DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ALL THE WAY TO
NEAR I-80 BY LATE SATURDAY...WHILE GFS AND MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS MUCH WEAKER AND KEEPING ORPHANED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL NORTH.
ALL IN ALL...SHOULD ONLY BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST
THROUGH SATURDAY AS BLOCK PERHAPS SHIFTS JUST A BIT EASTWARD...AND
DAYS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WORK TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. HARD TO PICTURE MUCH HAPPENING GIVEN THE WARMER PLUME OF
TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE PRIMARY SITE OF CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE AT KSUX...WHERE
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL. OTHERWISE CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE
SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY. KHON WILL DEFINITELY BE VFR
TODAY...WITH KFSD LIKELY LOWER END VFR. TONIGHT IS A BIT OF A
WILDCARD IN TERMS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THERE ARE NO
INDICATIONS OF WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE CLEAR
SKIES...OR CLEARING SKIES IN PLACE...AND LIGHT WINDS WITH WET
GROUND...RADIATIONAL FOG IS ALWAYS A CONCERN IN THIS TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KABR 011126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS
ALSO BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. COULD BE FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK FOR SOME LOCATIONS
BY SUNRISE. LOOKING AT A PLEASANT DAY TODAY AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE
60S UNDER FAIR SKIES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM CENTERS AROUND MONDAY AND THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THAT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE REGION. EC IS REMAINING CONSISTENT
AND CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS WAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
WITH GREATEST PRECIP POTENTIAL MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES
VALLEY INTO CENTRAL SD. THE GFS SHOWS THE SAME SOLUTION AS THE EC
AND THE NAM LOOKS TO BE FINALLY JUMPING ON BOARD AS THE 06Z RUN COMES
IN EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY. WILL SEE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POCKET ALOFT DROPS SOUTH. LOOKING AT MAINLY
SHOWERS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS AS WELL AND LATER
SHIFTS MAY OPT TO ADD SOME THUNDER. SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY BE OUT OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN PLEASANT
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S...DESPITE THE PRECIP CHANCES AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

ON TUESDAY...MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT SPREADS OVER THE CWA WITH GOOD
WEST TO NORTHWEST MIXING WINDS DEVELOPING. SHOULD BE A VERY MILD DAY
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DID INCREASE WIND
SPEEDS A BIT ON TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINS...THEN QUICKLY DROPS SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. THE HIGH WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY
MORNING. RETURN FLOW THEN DEVELOPS...ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO BE
USHERED INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER
AIR...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KUNR 011106
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
506 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW ACROSS MISSOURI...WITH 1027MB HIGH
ACROSS MONTANA. REGIONAL RADAR HAS SOME LIGHT RAIN STILL FALLING
ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
RAIN SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

ON MONDAY...SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MODELS
HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE OVER
THE PAST TWO DAY. WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WEATHER WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND HIGHS IN
THE 70S. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HILLS ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...OMEGA-BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS AS
A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN CA. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
LOW SHIFTING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND UPPER ENERGY ROTATING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW THIS LOW OVERTAKING THE RIDGE...WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 011106
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
506 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW ACROSS MISSOURI...WITH 1027MB HIGH
ACROSS MONTANA. REGIONAL RADAR HAS SOME LIGHT RAIN STILL FALLING
ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
RAIN SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

ON MONDAY...SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MODELS
HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE OVER
THE PAST TWO DAY. WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WEATHER WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND HIGHS IN
THE 70S. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HILLS ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...OMEGA-BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS AS
A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN CA. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
LOW SHIFTING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND UPPER ENERGY ROTATING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW THIS LOW OVERTAKING THE RIDGE...WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KFSD 010855
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
355 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VERY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS AREAS BASICALLY INCLUDING THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS
MAXIMIZED IN THE 850-800MB LAYER WHERE PLENTY OF MOISTURE RESIDES IN
THESE LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION TO THIS...A STRIPE OF THETAE
RIDGING...ALMOST A TROWAL LIKE FEATURE...CONTINUES TO WRAP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST...AND IS VERY SLOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. ADD SOME UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...HAVE HIGH POPS LINGERING ACROSS OUR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS TURNS MORE TO A
SHOWERY EVENT. UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES...AND SOUNDINGS BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE FROM THE SURFACE TO 850MB. THEREFORE HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD...EXTREME NORTHEAST NEB...AND
MUCH OF NORTHWEST IA WHERE 4KM DEEP MOISTURE STILL RESIDES. AT THE
TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER...TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO -10C. THIS IS
BORDERLINE WHETHER ANY ICE CAN GET INTRODUCED IN THE CLOUD
LAYER...SO LEFT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD VARY QUITE A BIT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. ACTUALLY
THE MAV GUIDANCE LOOKED PRETTY GOOD TODAY...GIVING HURON THE WARMEST
READING AT 62. CONVERSELY WHERE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS DEEP THROUGH
THE DAY...STORM LAKE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 50 DEGREES.
WHERE THE AIR IS DRIER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...THE
SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A DECENT AMOUNT OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS STANDS TO REASON OVER WET GROUND...
AND IT COULD BE ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. THUS EXCEPT FOR HURON...WANTED TO KEEP EVERYONE ELSE IN
THE UPPER 50S THROUGH OUR NORTH AND WEST.

TONIGHT...WE STILL HAVE A SECONDARY WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST IA...WITH ANOTHER ONE DIVING DOWN INTO ND FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. BUT AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...
GIVING LIGHT WINDS. SKIES SHOULD BE PRETTY CLEAR...EXCEPT IN
NORTHWEST IA WHERE SOME CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER FOR A WHILE BEFORE
CLEARING OUT LATER. BECAUSE OF THIS...LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
FOG FORMATION FOR OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES NOTING THE WET GROUND AND LATER
CLEARING. ALSO THREW IN SOME PATCHY FROST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WHO SHOULD DIP DOWN INTO THE 34 TO 35
DEGREE RANGE. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAV GUIDANCE CAPTURED THE LOWS
PRETTY GOOD AS WELL AS CONSENSUS RAW MODEL VALUES. AT THIS TIME...
DO NOT BELIEVE THE FROST POTENTIAL IS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
HEADLINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A COOL START TO MONDAY WITH SOME PATCHES OF FROST TO GREET THE DAY
NORTH OF I-90...BUT SOME EARLY DAY SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO QUICKLY
BRING TEMPS UP. SUNSHINE WILL FADE...HOWEVER...BETWEEN DEVELOPING OF
SOME DAYTIME HEATING CUMULUS BY MIDDAY...AND ALSO FROM UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS FEATURE...CURRENTLY OVER
FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF SASKATCHEWAN...IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  FAIRLY
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...AND SEEMS TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH MORE OF A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THAN ANY
MODEL SOLUTION OTHER THAN THE CANADIAN REGIONAL WOULD INDICATE.
AS A RESULT...DIURNAL CYCLE AIDS IN SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION...
AND AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY LOOK TO GENERATE UP TO 50-100
J/KG MLCAPE. HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF I-
29 DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND LINGERING UNTIL THE EARLY
EVENING EXIT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WITH INSTABILITY AND LIKELIHOOD
OF CLOUD BEARING TEMPS SUPPORTING ICE GROWTH...HAVE ALSO MENTIONED A
SLIGHT THREAT FOR THUNDER IN SOME AREAS.

WEAK FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR...BUT SOUTHWARD
SINKING RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF SLIGHTLY INCREASED
WESTERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION IN SW MN. AT LAST...TUESDAY
SHOULD MARK OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER DAY... WITH TEMPS IN A
DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ENVIRONMENT FAVORING FULLY MIXED READINGS INTO
THE 70S.

STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...
DRIVING A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA. TAIL OF STRONGER
DIV Q WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA ALONG WITH FAIRLY LIMITED
MOISTURE...SO HAVE KEPT FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY. THERE IS 20-25 KNOTS OF
WIND NOT FAR OFF SURFACE IN ONLY A WEAKLY STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT...
SO SOME CONCERN OF A BIT STRONGER NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL WIND AT 15
TO 25 MPH FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

LATER ON THROUGH THE FORECAST...DEEPENING WAVES TOWARD THE EASTERN
U.S. AND WESTERN U.S. SET UP A STRONG OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN.
TRANSITIONING INTO THIS PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK BELOW NORMAL AS SURFACE RIDGE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE SHADED COOLER THAN INITIALIZATION
BLEND WED NIGHT...TAKING SOME TEMPS ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR
A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IF TEMPS TAKE TREND DOWN A BIT MORE WITH A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FIND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
ON FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE ALL 70S BY FRIDAY...WITH SOME UPPER 60S
NEAR/EAST OF I-29 ON THURSDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW MODELS TREAT
A WAVE CROSSING THE RIDGE SATURDAY...WITH ECMWF MUCH MORE
FLATTENING...AND DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ALL THE WAY TO
NEAR I-80 BY LATE SATURDAY...WHILE GFS AND MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS MUCH WEAKER AND KEEPING ORPHANED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL NORTH.
ALL IN ALL...SHOULD ONLY BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST
THROUGH SATURDAY AS BLOCK PERHAPS SHIFTS JUST A BIT EASTWARD...AND
DAYS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WORK TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. HARD TO PICTURE MUCH HAPPENING GIVEN THE WARMER PLUME OF
TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND WILL VERY SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LINGERING INTO MID MORNING
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
WITH THIS RAIN BAND...BUT WILL ALSO SEE IMPROVEMENT AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS. CLEARING WILL ALSO ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 010855
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
355 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VERY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS AREAS BASICALLY INCLUDING THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS
MAXIMIZED IN THE 850-800MB LAYER WHERE PLENTY OF MOISTURE RESIDES IN
THESE LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION TO THIS...A STRIPE OF THETAE
RIDGING...ALMOST A TROWAL LIKE FEATURE...CONTINUES TO WRAP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST...AND IS VERY SLOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. ADD SOME UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...HAVE HIGH POPS LINGERING ACROSS OUR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS TURNS MORE TO A
SHOWERY EVENT. UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES...AND SOUNDINGS BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE FROM THE SURFACE TO 850MB. THEREFORE HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD...EXTREME NORTHEAST NEB...AND
MUCH OF NORTHWEST IA WHERE 4KM DEEP MOISTURE STILL RESIDES. AT THE
TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER...TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO -10C. THIS IS
BORDERLINE WHETHER ANY ICE CAN GET INTRODUCED IN THE CLOUD
LAYER...SO LEFT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD VARY QUITE A BIT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. ACTUALLY
THE MAV GUIDANCE LOOKED PRETTY GOOD TODAY...GIVING HURON THE WARMEST
READING AT 62. CONVERSELY WHERE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS DEEP THROUGH
THE DAY...STORM LAKE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 50 DEGREES.
WHERE THE AIR IS DRIER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...THE
SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A DECENT AMOUNT OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS STANDS TO REASON OVER WET GROUND...
AND IT COULD BE ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. THUS EXCEPT FOR HURON...WANTED TO KEEP EVERYONE ELSE IN
THE UPPER 50S THROUGH OUR NORTH AND WEST.

TONIGHT...WE STILL HAVE A SECONDARY WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST IA...WITH ANOTHER ONE DIVING DOWN INTO ND FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. BUT AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...
GIVING LIGHT WINDS. SKIES SHOULD BE PRETTY CLEAR...EXCEPT IN
NORTHWEST IA WHERE SOME CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER FOR A WHILE BEFORE
CLEARING OUT LATER. BECAUSE OF THIS...LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
FOG FORMATION FOR OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES NOTING THE WET GROUND AND LATER
CLEARING. ALSO THREW IN SOME PATCHY FROST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WHO SHOULD DIP DOWN INTO THE 34 TO 35
DEGREE RANGE. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAV GUIDANCE CAPTURED THE LOWS
PRETTY GOOD AS WELL AS CONSENSUS RAW MODEL VALUES. AT THIS TIME...
DO NOT BELIEVE THE FROST POTENTIAL IS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
HEADLINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A COOL START TO MONDAY WITH SOME PATCHES OF FROST TO GREET THE DAY
NORTH OF I-90...BUT SOME EARLY DAY SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO QUICKLY
BRING TEMPS UP. SUNSHINE WILL FADE...HOWEVER...BETWEEN DEVELOPING OF
SOME DAYTIME HEATING CUMULUS BY MIDDAY...AND ALSO FROM UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS FEATURE...CURRENTLY OVER
FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF SASKATCHEWAN...IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  FAIRLY
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...AND SEEMS TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH MORE OF A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THAN ANY
MODEL SOLUTION OTHER THAN THE CANADIAN REGIONAL WOULD INDICATE.
AS A RESULT...DIURNAL CYCLE AIDS IN SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION...
AND AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY LOOK TO GENERATE UP TO 50-100
J/KG MLCAPE. HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF I-
29 DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND LINGERING UNTIL THE EARLY
EVENING EXIT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WITH INSTABILITY AND LIKELIHOOD
OF CLOUD BEARING TEMPS SUPPORTING ICE GROWTH...HAVE ALSO MENTIONED A
SLIGHT THREAT FOR THUNDER IN SOME AREAS.

WEAK FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR...BUT SOUTHWARD
SINKING RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF SLIGHTLY INCREASED
WESTERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION IN SW MN. AT LAST...TUESDAY
SHOULD MARK OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER DAY... WITH TEMPS IN A
DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ENVIRONMENT FAVORING FULLY MIXED READINGS INTO
THE 70S.

STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...
DRIVING A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA. TAIL OF STRONGER
DIV Q WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA ALONG WITH FAIRLY LIMITED
MOISTURE...SO HAVE KEPT FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY. THERE IS 20-25 KNOTS OF
WIND NOT FAR OFF SURFACE IN ONLY A WEAKLY STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT...
SO SOME CONCERN OF A BIT STRONGER NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL WIND AT 15
TO 25 MPH FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

LATER ON THROUGH THE FORECAST...DEEPENING WAVES TOWARD THE EASTERN
U.S. AND WESTERN U.S. SET UP A STRONG OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN.
TRANSITIONING INTO THIS PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK BELOW NORMAL AS SURFACE RIDGE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE SHADED COOLER THAN INITIALIZATION
BLEND WED NIGHT...TAKING SOME TEMPS ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR
A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IF TEMPS TAKE TREND DOWN A BIT MORE WITH A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FIND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
ON FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE ALL 70S BY FRIDAY...WITH SOME UPPER 60S
NEAR/EAST OF I-29 ON THURSDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW MODELS TREAT
A WAVE CROSSING THE RIDGE SATURDAY...WITH ECMWF MUCH MORE
FLATTENING...AND DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ALL THE WAY TO
NEAR I-80 BY LATE SATURDAY...WHILE GFS AND MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS MUCH WEAKER AND KEEPING ORPHANED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL NORTH.
ALL IN ALL...SHOULD ONLY BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST
THROUGH SATURDAY AS BLOCK PERHAPS SHIFTS JUST A BIT EASTWARD...AND
DAYS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WORK TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. HARD TO PICTURE MUCH HAPPENING GIVEN THE WARMER PLUME OF
TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND WILL VERY SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LINGERING INTO MID MORNING
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
WITH THIS RAIN BAND...BUT WILL ALSO SEE IMPROVEMENT AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS. CLEARING WILL ALSO ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KUNR 010823
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
223 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW ACROSS MISSOURI...WITH 1027MB HIGH
ACROSS MONTANA. REGIONAL RADAR HAS SOME LIGHT RAIN STILL FALLING
ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
RAIN SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

ON MONDAY...SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MODELS
HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE OVER
THE PAST TWO DAY. WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WEATHER WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND HIGHS IN
THE 70S. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HILLS ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...OMEGA-BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS AS
A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN CA. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
LOW SHIFTING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND UPPER ENERGY ROTATING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW THIS LOW OVERTAKING THE RIDGE...WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SCT MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL TREND VFR
AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ALL PLACES THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KABR 010818
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
318 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS
ALSO BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. COULD BE FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK FOR SOME LOCATIONS
BY SUNRISE. LOOKING AT A PLEASANT DAY TODAY AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE
60S UNDER FAIR SKIES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM CENTERS AROUND MONDAY AND THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THAT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE REGION. EC IS REMAINING CONSISTENT
AND CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS WAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
WITH GREATEST PRECIP POTENTIAL MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES
VALLEY INTO CENTRAL SD. THE GFS SHOWS THE SAME SOLUTION AS THE EC
AND THE NAM LOOKS TO BE FINALLY JUMPING ON BOARD AS THE 06Z RUN COMES
IN EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY. WILL SEE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POCKET ALOFT DROPS SOUTH. LOOKING AT MAINLY
SHOWERS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS AS WELL AND LATER
SHIFTS MAY OPT TO ADD SOME THUNDER. SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY BE OUT OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN PLEASANT
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S...DESPITE THE PRECIP CHANCES AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

ON TUESDAY...MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT SPREADS OVER THE CWA WITH GOOD
WEST TO NORTHWEST MIXING WINDS DEVELOPING. SHOULD BE A VERY MILD DAY
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DID INCREASE WIND
SPEEDS A BIT ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINS...THEN QUICKLY DROPS SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. THE HIGH WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY
MORNING. RETURN FLOW THEN DEVELOPS...ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO BE
USHERED INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER
AIR...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 010530 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1230 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

INCREASED SKY COVER THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO AND
NEBRASKA. SOME OF THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EXIT OVERNIGHT BUT DID
RAISE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

NORTHWEST WINDS OUT OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA
HAS SHIELDED MOST OF THE CWA FROM PRECIPITATION...WITH RAIN
EXTENDING ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 90...ALTHOUGH SOME OF
THIS MAY BE VIRGA THANKS TO 20 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. MODELS
SHOW BAND OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MUCH
MORE COMPLICATED FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...BUT FOR THE MOST
PART EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. THE ONE CAVEAT...A NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE
MAY ACTUALLY  BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. GUIDANCE
CONTINUITY IS FAIRLY LOW...WITH THE ECMWF/NAM SUPPORTING ENOUGH COOL
MID LEVEL AIR FOR SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION RESULTING IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OVER MINNESOTA. THE CANADIAN
MODEL IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN BUT SEEMS TO BE SIDING CLOSER TO THE
GFS WITH DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS.

AS FOR HIGHS...THE PROGRESSION OF 850MB TEMPERATURES AND PROFILES
SUPPORTING DEEPER MIXING THANKS TO FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. WE MAY SEE A FEW POCKETS OF TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 30S SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
CWA MIXED. MONDAY MORNING WILL SEE MORE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS...BUT WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY ONLY A FEW FAVORED
LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS FALL TO NEAR FREEZING.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE SET UP FROM THE 4 CORNERS REGION UP THROUGH
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY PROGRESS E
OVER THE PLAINS STATES TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE SQUEEZED TO THE FAR E DAKOTAS AND MN SATURDAY...AS THE
NEXT 500MB LOW /JUST OFF THE S AK COAST/ SINKS OFF THE CA COAST
THURSDAY AND THE DESERT SW.

OTHERWISE...THE 12Z TUESDAY SFC WX MAP WILL LIKELY SHOW LOW PRESSURE
OVER ENTRY...WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA. THE
TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK ACROSS THE ABR AREA LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIP LOOKS TO STAY WELL
TO OUR E ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE MAIN CHANGE WILL BE
COOLER AIR SINKING IN /AFTER A DAY OF 850MB TEMPS RISING INTO THE
LOW TEENS C/. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS EVEN BRINGS SOME -0.5C 850MB
TEMPS TO THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE CWA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD THURSDAY MORNING. AS FOR PRECIP
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE COULD HAVE SOME SHOWERS TO OUR W FRIDAY
AND POSSIBLY OVERHEAD NEXT SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS TO BE A
DRY FCST. THIS WILL BE WHILE THE SFC HIGH SINKS TO THE S AND MID MS
VALLEY...AND LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM CO.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KUNR 010516
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1116 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

VIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG STACKED LOW SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEBRASKA. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS EXTENSIVE WRAPAROUND
PRECIP AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF SD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AND
SE WY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY ACROSS THE
ERN BLKHLS INTO THE SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS. PRECIP ACROSS SW/SCNTRL
SD HAS STAYED AS RAIN....AS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS NOW DRIFTED
SOUTHWARD INTO CNTRL NEB NEAR KLBF. LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
ERN NEB TO THE IA/MO BORDER TONIGHT WITH PRECIP MOVING OUT OF THE
CWA BY LATE THIS EVNG OR THE OVNGHT HOURS. 1030MB SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH WITH SKIES CLEAR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
MRNG. A QUIET DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL
BE N/NE AT GENERALLY 10 KT. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 30S SUN
NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

BOTH THE ECMWF/NAM SUGGEST A WAVE DROPPING SWD FROM CANADA ON
MONDAY ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR PCPN...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS DRY. WILL SIDE WITH THE DRY SOLUTION
FOR NOW WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THE RIDGE
SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK PROVIDING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE DESERT SW LOW FOR
THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK...WITH UPPER ENERGY ROTATING NEWD INTO
THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

SCT MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SE 1/4 WILL TREND VFR TONIGHT AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. VFR CONDS
EXPECTED ALL PLACES THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KFSD 010354
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1054 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY SPINNING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL
MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BECOMING SITUATED
OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY SUNDAY EVENING. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING MOST
OF THE RAINFALL CONCENTRATED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS RAINFALL HAS BEEN CUT OFF THROUGH MOST OF
NORTHWEST IA AND THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. HAVE HAD FEW STRONGER
WIND GUSTS OVER THE PAST HOUR THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA AS THE SHOWERS
ENDED AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXED DOWN. HRRR WIND GUST GUIDANCE
SHOWING THESE ISOLATED 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS CONTINUING INTO LATE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE LATER
AFTERNOON...LIFTING BACK INTO OUR AREA BY EARLY EVENING. THESE
SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 OVERNIGHT WHERE
THE BETTER MIDLEVEL THETA E ADVECTION IS LOCATED...THOUGH
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD/FORCING WEAKENS/AND DRIER AIR IS PULLED
SOUTHWARD. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE OFF DURING THE
EVENING...AND LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40.

ON SUNDAY THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THOUGH MODELS EVEN
LINGER SOME QPF THROUGH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN IOWA ZONES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WITH SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
BE OF A MORE SHOWERY NATURE. THERMAL PROFILES DO WARM ON
SUNDAY...AND LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER...TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT LEADING TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ADDED SOME
PATCHY FOG OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE GROUND IS ALSO VERY SATURATED.
LOWS DOWN IN TO THE THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

MONDAY SHOULD BE A NICE DAY...POSSIBLY WAITING UNTIL LATE MORNING
FOR THE SUN IF THE FOG IS MORE WIDESPREAD. LOWERED HIGHS JUST A
TOUCH OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE FOG COULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER. BASICALLY NEAR 70 IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO 60 TO 65 IN
NORTHWEST IOWA.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY...BUT IT DOES
MAKE SOME DIFFERENCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE AT WARMING AND DEVELOPING STRONGER NORTHWEST
WINDS...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE BETTER MIXING IN THE NORTHERN CWA
AND THE ECMWF IS VERY SLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. REGARDLESS
WILL BE A WARM DAY AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM TIMING WHICH WILL
KEEP SOME OF THE WARMEST HIGHS FROM HURON TO MARSHALL MINNESOTA AND
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A FAIRLY STRONG
DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING STRONGER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS TIME AROUND THE MODELS ARE A
LITTLE FASTER IN SWINGING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ONTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY...ALBEIT THE AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IS
MARGINAL. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS STICKS
WITH SOMETHING CLOSER TO AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH WAS ALREADY
IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY TOWARDS
THE MORE GENERAL BREAK DOWN OF THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IN THE GFS
VERSUS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND WILL VERY SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LINGERING INTO MID MORNING
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
WITH THIS RAIN BAND...BUT WILL ALSO SEE IMPROVEMENT AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS. CLEARING WILL ALSO ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...




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