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000
FXUS63 KABR 242005
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
305 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

WESTERLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPS
ARE SPIKING NICELY. 80 DEGREES CURRENTLY IN ABR AND HAVE HAD TO
INCREASE HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. DROPPED
OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WELL INTO
THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS. LONG NIGHTS THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL NICELY. ONLY THING STOPPING THIS WOULD BE ANY
SIGNIFICANT MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD OVERHEAD...BUT AT THIS
POINT THERE IS NO HARD EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT THIS.

MILD TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BROAD UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SUNDAY SHAPING UP
TO BE ANOTHER RATHER WARM DAY AND HAVE RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL
DEGREES. SEEMS LIKE A CLASSIC SETUP FOR REAL GOOD WARMING THAT
RECENT FORECASTS THE PAST WEEK OR TWO HAVE UNDERESTIMATED. VERY
WARM TEMPS AT 850MB ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY MIXING WINDS
TURNING WESTERLY. RH AT 850 MB DOES INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WHICH MAY INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER...SO WILL BE SLIGHTLY CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT...BUT I
COULD EASILY SEE TEMPS BEING EVEN A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. MAY NEED TO BUMP UP HIGHS EVEN MORE
FOR SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER OUR REGION MOVING EASTWARD TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A POOR SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
ELONGATED TROUGHING/SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE EAST
OF OUR REGION. THE MODELS DO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...CHANCES OF ANY RAINFALL APPEAR TO BE LOW FOR OUR CWA
WITH LACK OF ANY ORGANIZATION OF ANY LIFTING FORCE FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD IN AND
ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS LOOKS TO BE
DRY ALSO AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS THEN SHOW A LARGE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE AIR WITH THIS LOOKS PRETTY COOL AND MAY HAVE TO LOWER
THE HIGHS FOR BOTH DAYS. IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY 40S FOR HIGHS FOR
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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000
FXUS63 KFSD 242000
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
300 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SETTLING IN FOR A QUIET 24 HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. VERY WARM READINGS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 70S FOR MOST...WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT ARCING FROM NORTHERN TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING
SOUTHWARD. WINDS SHOULD PUSH UP BRIEFLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT OVERALL STABILIZATION DURING THE EVENING WILL
KEEP WINDS FROM ATTAINING STRONGER MIXED VALUES OCCURRING BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MEAN A BREAK
FROM THE FOG THREAT...EVEN AS WIND DIMINISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. DID...HOWEVER...TAKE TEMPS DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH VALLEY AREAS IN THE WESTERN
HALF. SW MN INTO PARTS OF NW IA ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON TO A BIT MORE
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL BRING A SPLENDID DAY AS TENDENCY FOR HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LESS...AND WINDS LARGELY LIGHT...AFTER SOME POTENTIAL
MIXING OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE MORNING...
AND INCREASE SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE FAR WEST BY AFTERNOON. A
SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
COMFORTABLY ATTAINED WITH USUAL LARGE DIURNAL RANGES OF LATE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS RATHER A TRICKY ONE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW STRATUS SPREADING INTO THE
REGION...WHICH THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT. IF THE STRATUS DOES
MATERIALIZE AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MUCH COOLER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. BASED ON MOISTURE
TRENDS...THINK THAT OUR WESTERN HALF SHOULD BREAK OUT OF ANY CLOUD
COVER EARLY IN THE DAY AND WARM QUICKLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE EASTERN HALF HOWEVER IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN WITH A GREAT POTENTIAL
FOR STRATUS TO LINGER IF IT MANAGES TO DEVELOP. WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS REGARD...WENT SOMEWHAT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ON
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. BUT ANY CHANGES IN
EXPECTED CLOUD COVERAGE COULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER OR COOLER
READINGS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY DRY MID
LEVELS.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO ON THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM IS MORE
SIMILAR TO THE FORMER GFS IN CLOSING OFF THE LOW AND SLOWING
IT...BUT ALL MODELS ARE FAVORING A MORE NORTHERN AND FASTER TRACK
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY FORM IN THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING AS THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE...BUT DRY MID LEVELS MAY INITIALLY PREVENT MUCH OF ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM GETTING GOING. BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
AND ANY SHOWERS THE DEVELOP WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. THE WAVE SHOULD
EXIT INTO THE BOUNDARY WATERS AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS IN OUR EAST SHOULD END BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH CLOUDS..RAIN
SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
AS WELL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN 50S ON TUESDAY WITH A VERY BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND.

MODELS BEGIN TO REALLY SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES LATE IN THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. OVERALL COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL READINGS...BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL. THE ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT A WEAK WAVE SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE DRY MID AND LOW
LEVELS...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS GREATER.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SAT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KABR 241745 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1245 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLOWLY INCREASING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S
WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY

RATHER UNEVENTFUL PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT
TO THE WEST...WEST/NORTHWEST ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MIXED DOWN WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15MPH WITH
GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S...BUT THATS THE WORST OF IT. EFFICIENT
MIXING TODAY WILL ALSO RESULT IN HIGHS SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO READINGS WILL STILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WE WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION FOR
SUNDAY...THOUGH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT MIXING
POTENTIAL.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY


THE PERIOD OPENS WITH A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER
LOW THAT FOLLOWS THIS FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER. MODELS ARE KEEPING THE
BULK OF THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON THIS RUN. STUCK WITH
MODEL BLEND FOR CONSISTENCY BUT IF THE TREND CONTINUES COULD SEE
BACKING OFF EVEN FURTHER ON POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO JUST
BELOW AVERAGE WITH THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC LOW MOVING IN ON WED AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED.




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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000
FXUS63 KUNR 241711
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1111 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

STRONG UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SCNTRL CONUS...WITH THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW CROSSING THE PACIFIC NW TO THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER
FLOW BRINGING IN PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S TODAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLIDE NORTH TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGING WILL EXTEND NRD SAT INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES/PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC
NW. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED SAT WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 60S
TO UPPER 70S. WARMEST TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN SCNTRL SD...BUT WARMEST
TEMPS SAT WILL SWITCH TO NE WY AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP W/ SE WINDS.


&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STICK AROUND A BIT
LONGER SUNDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. ENOUGH FORCING PRESENT TO OVERCOME DRY
AIR AND THUS WILL CONTINUE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WET BULB
ZERO PROFILES SUGGEST SOME SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
LATE AT NIGHT. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SEASONAL FALL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KFSD 241639
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1139 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT MID MORNING AS EXPECTED...AND NOW WILL BE
DEALING WITH A QUIET AND MILD DAY. PROBLEM IS THE EXTENT OF CIRRUS
ACROSS THE AREA. DO EXPECT THIS TO THIN GOING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW BELOW IMPRESSIVE INVERSION ON
THE KABR 12Z RAOB...WILL PERHAPS BE A STRUGGLE TO WARM QUITE AS
MUCH AS EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL START TO COME UP FAIRLY
QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AT WHICH TIME A BIT
STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP...AND WARMING RATES
WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY. COULD STILL SEE A FEW READINGS TOWARD THE
UPPER 70S IN LOWER BRULE LOCATIONS...BUT MOSTLY LOWER TO A FEW MID
70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CENTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO GIVE EXTREMELY MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TODAY...BUT LOOKS TO BE SHORT OF
RECORDS AS THEY ARE STILL IN THE 80S.

BUT FIRST...PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
MORNING FOG AGAIN. THE ORGANIZED AREA OF DENSE FOG IS TO THE EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME INDICATIONS PER THE HRRR AND RAP13
THAT THIS FOG MAY BACK INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE
WHEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DECREASES. THEREFORE KEPT AREAS OF FOG GOING
IN THAT AREA AROUND SPENCER AND STORM LAKE IA. ELSEWHERE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE CREEPING UP...ADVECTING NORTHWARD
FROM NEB. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD...CURRENTLY BETWEEN CHAMBERLAIN AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS ALONG THE I 29 CORRIDOR AND EAST CENTRAL SD.
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY GETTING SMALL IN EAST
CENTRAL SD...WHERE AGAIN THE HRRR AND RAP13 DEVELOP FOG BY
SUNRISE...THEN DRAIN SOME OF IT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD PIPESTONE AND
LUVERNE MN ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. ACCOUNTED FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST BY ADDING AN AREAS OF FOG MENTION
FOR OUR EAST CENTRAL SD ZONES. OTHERWISE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
ABATE BY AROUND 15Z OR SLIGHTLY LATER...LEAVING SOME CIRRUS IN PLACE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. BUT HIGHS LOOK VERY MILD...WITH THE RAW
BIAS CORRECTED VALUES LOOKING THE BEST IN GIVING READINGS WELL INTO
THE 70S. WINDS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WILL ALSO NOT
BECOME VERY STRONG AT ALL...SO LOOKS LIKE A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON.

NOT A LOT GOING ON TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT LOWS ABOUT 40 TO 45 UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

STILL LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL A BIT BEHIND TODAYS
FRONT...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE 60S AND 70S BOTH DAYS. BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE...DID BUMP HIGHS UP A TAD BOTH DAYS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
SUNDAY...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET
SOME LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP...WHICH IF IT DOES...COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN. SO WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SUNDAY...BUT
IF IT STAYS SUNNY WILL LIKELY END UP WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS DESPITE SOME FORCING...MID
LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CLOSER TO 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE STAY MORE MIXED.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST FORCING COMES POST
FRONTAL...AND LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH WILL STAY POSITIVELY TITLED AS IT
SWINGS ACROSS. THUS FORCING AND MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT GREAT. STILL
LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ALOFT...MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S...WARMEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...WITH TUESDAY LIKELY THE
COOLEST DAY. WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING...WITH LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THESE VALUES ARE
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. SHOULD BE BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS
WELL...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. MODELS
DIVERGE MID WEEK...DUE TO DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH OF OUR NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. SO FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH CONSENSUS VALUES
FOR HIGHS...GIVING MID 50S. AT THIS TIME DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE SEE
ANY GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEVER
SETTLING OVERHEAD. THUS DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AS
OF NOW JUST GOING WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SEEING ANY GREAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS OF NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SAT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KABR 241523 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1023 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLOWLY INCREASING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S
WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY

RATHER UNEVENTFUL PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT
TO THE WEST...WEST/NORTHWEST ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MIXED DOWN WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15MPH WITH
GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S...BUT THATS THE WORST OF IT. EFFICIENT
MIXING TODAY WILL ALSO RESULT IN HIGHS SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO READINGS WILL STILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WE WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION FOR
SUNDAY...THOUGH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT MIXING
POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PERIOD OPENS WITH A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER
LOW THAT FOLLOWS THIS FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER. MODELS ARE KEEPING THE
BULK OF THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON THIS RUN. STUCK WITH
MODEL BLEND FOR CONSISTENCY BUT IF THE TREND CONTINUES COULD SEE
BACKING OFF EVEN FURTHER ON POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO JUST
BELOW AVERAGE WITH THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC LOW MOVING IN ON WED AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR GROUND FOG NEAR KABR
EARLY THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 241129
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
629 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CENTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO GIVE EXTREMELY MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TODAY...BUT LOOKS TO BE SHORT OF
RECORDS AS THEY ARE STILL IN THE 80S.

BUT FIRST...PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
MORNING FOG AGAIN. THE ORGANIZED AREA OF DENSE FOG IS TO THE EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME INDICATIONS PER THE HRRR AND RAP13
THAT THIS FOG MAY BACK INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE
WHEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DECREASES. THEREFORE KEPT AREAS OF FOG GOING
IN THAT AREA AROUND SPENCER AND STORM LAKE IA. ELSEWHERE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE CREEPING UP...ADVECTING NORTHWARD
FROM NEB. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD...CURRENTLY BETWEEN CHAMBERLAIN AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS ALONG THE I 29 CORRIDOR AND EAST CENTRAL SD.
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY GETTING SMALL IN EAST
CENTRAL SD...WHERE AGAIN THE HRRR AND RAP13 DEVELOP FOG BY
SUNRISE...THEN DRAIN SOME OF IT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD PIPESTONE AND
LUVERNE MN ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. ACCOUNTED FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST BY ADDING AN AREAS OF FOG MENTION
FOR OUR EAST CENTRAL SD ZONES. OTHERWISE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
ABATE BY AROUND 15Z OR SLIGHTLY LATER...LEAVING SOME CIRRUS IN PLACE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. BUT HIGHS LOOK VERY MILD...WITH THE RAW
BIAS CORRECTED VALUES LOOKING THE BEST IN GIVING READINGS WELL INTO
THE 70S. WINDS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WILL ALSO NOT
BECOME VERY STRONG AT ALL...SO LOOKS LIKE A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON.

NOT A LOT GOING ON TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT LOWS ABOUT 40 TO 45 UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

STILL LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL A BIT BEHIND TODAYS
FRONT...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE 60S AND 70S BOTH DAYS. BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE...DID BUMP HIGHS UP A TAD BOTH DAYS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
SUNDAY...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET
SOME LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP...WHICH IF IT DOES...COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN. SO WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SUNDAY...BUT
IF IT STAYS SUNNY WILL LIKELY END UP WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS DESPITE SOME FORCING...MID
LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CLOSER TO 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE STAY MORE MIXED.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST FORCING COMES POST
FRONTAL...AND LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH WILL STAY POSITIVELY TITLED AS IT
SWINGS ACROSS. THUS FORCING AND MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT GREAT. STILL
LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ALOFT...MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S...WARMEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...WITH TUESDAY LIKELY THE
COOLEST DAY. WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING...WITH LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THESE VALUES ARE
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. SHOULD BE BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS
WELL...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. MODELS
DIVERGE MID WEEK...DUE TO DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH OF OUR NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. SO FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH CONSENSUS VALUES
FOR HIGHS...GIVING MID 50S. AT THIS TIME DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE SEE
ANY GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEVER
SETTLING OVERHEAD. THUS DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AS
OF NOW JUST GOING WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SEEING ANY GREAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS OF NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AVIATION WILL BE QUITE A CHALLENGE UNTIL MID MORNING. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AT THIS TIME
HAVING PROGRESSED TO JUST EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AREAS OF
FOG HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH...BUT IT IS
CERTAINLY NOT CONSISTENT...AND WORSE...THE THICK CIRRUS IS
OBSCURING THE FOG ON THE IR SATELLITE. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT
KHON SHOULD IMPROVE RATHER RAPIDLY AS THEIR SURFACE WINDS HAVE
GONE WESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH...AND IN FACT HAVE VERY RECENTLY
GONE UP TO 5SM ALREADY. SO MAY HAVE TO AMEND THEM AT 12Z TO GO A
BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC. KFSD IS PROBABLY THE MOST PROBLEMATIC
TAF...AS THE SURFACE TROUGH ENCROACHES IN ON THE SITE...FOGGY
CONDITIONS COULD GET QUITE CLOSE IN THE EARLY AND MID MORNING. SO
IT WILL NEED MONITORED CLOSELY. KSUX IS WARMING UP...HELPING TO
WIDEN THEIR SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSION...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FOG MAY NOT BE A SERIOUS ISSUE THERE. BUT AGAIN...THEY TOO WILL
NEED CLOSE MONITORING UNTIL MID MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES AT THAT SITE ALSO. OTHERWISE AM EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING ONWARD...LASTING THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KABR 241126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY

RATHER UNEVENTFUL PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT
TO THE WEST...WEST/NORTHWEST ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MIXED DOWN WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15MPH WITH
GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S...BUT THATS THE WORST OF IT. EFFICIENT
MIXING TODAY WILL ALSO RESULT IN HIGHS SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO READINGS WILL STILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WE WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION FOR
SUNDAY...THOUGH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT MIXING
POTENTIAL.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY


THE PERIOD OPENS WITH A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER
LOW THAT FOLLOWS THIS FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER. MODELS ARE KEEPING THE
BULK OF THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON THIS RUN. STUCK WITH
MODEL BLEND FOR CONSISTENCY BUT IF THE TREND CONTINUES COULD SEE
BACKING OFF EVEN FURTHER ON POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO JUST
BELOW AVERAGE WITH THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC LOW MOVING IN ON WED AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED.




&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR GROUND FOG NEAR KABR
EARLY THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KUNR 240921
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
321 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

STRONG UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SCNTRL CONUS...WITH THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW CROSSING THE PACIFIC NW TO THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER
FLOW BRINGING IN PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S TODAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLIDE NORTH TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGING WILL EXTEND NRD SAT INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES/PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC
NW. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED SAT WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 60S
TO UPPER 70S. WARMEST TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN SCNTRL SD...BUT WARMEST
TEMPS SAT WILL SWITCH TO NE WY AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP W/ SE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STICK AROUND A BIT
LONGER SUNDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. ENOUGH FORCING PRESENT TO OVERCOME DRY
AIR AND THUS WILL CONTINUE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WET BULB
ZERO PROFILES SUGGEST SOME SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
LATE AT NIGHT. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SEASONAL FALL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH A STREAM
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON








000
FXUS63 KABR 240824
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
324 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY

RATHER UNEVENTFUL PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT
TO THE WEST...WEST/NORTHWEST ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MIXED DOWN WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15MPH WITH
GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S...BUT THATS THE WORST OF IT. EFFICIENT
MIXING TODAY WILL ALSO RESULT IN HIGHS SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO READINGS WILL STILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WE WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION FOR
SUNDAY...THOUGH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT MIXING
POTENTIAL.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY


THE PERIOD OPENS WITH A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER
LOW THAT FOLLOWS THIS FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER. MODELS ARE KEEPING THE
BULK OF THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON THIS RUN. STUCK WITH
MODEL BLEND FOR CONSISTENCY BUT IF THE TREND CONTINUES COULD SEE
BACKING OFF EVEN FURTHER ON POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO JUST
BELOW AVERAGE WITH THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC LOW MOVING IN ON WED AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 240758
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
258 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CENTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO GIVE EXTREMELY MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TODAY...BUT LOOKS TO BE SHORT OF
RECORDS AS THEY ARE STILL IN THE 80S.

BUT FIRST...PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
MORNING FOG AGAIN. THE ORGANIZED AREA OF DENSE FOG IS TO THE EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME INDICATIONS PER THE HRRR AND RAP13
THAT THIS FOG MAY BACK INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE
WHEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DECREASES. THEREFORE KEPT AREAS OF FOG GOING
IN THAT AREA AROUND SPENCER AND STORM LAKE IA. ELSEWHERE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE CREEPING UP...ADVECTING NORTHWARD
FROM NEB. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD...CURRENTLY BETWEEN CHAMBERLAIN AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS ALONG THE I 29 CORRIDOR AND EAST CENTRAL SD.
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY GETTING SMALL IN EAST
CENTRAL SD...WHERE AGAIN THE HRRR AND RAP13 DEVELOP FOG BY
SUNRISE...THEN DRAIN SOME OF IT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD PIPESTONE AND
LUVERNE MN ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. ACCOUNTED FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST BY ADDING AN AREAS OF FOG MENTION
FOR OUR EAST CENTRAL SD ZONES. OTHERWISE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
ABATE BY AROUND 15Z OR SLIGHTLY LATER...LEAVING SOME CIRRUS IN PLACE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. BUT HIGHS LOOK VERY MILD...WITH THE RAW
BIAS CORRECTED VALUES LOOKING THE BEST IN GIVING READINGS WELL INTO
THE 70S. WINDS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WILL ALSO NOT
BECOME VERY STRONG AT ALL...SO LOOKS LIKE A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON.

NOT A LOT GOING ON TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT LOWS ABOUT 40 TO 45 UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

STILL LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL A BIT BEHIND TODAYS
FRONT...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE 60S AND 70S BOTH DAYS. BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE...DID BUMP HIGHS UP A TAD BOTH DAYS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
SUNDAY...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET
SOME LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP...WHICH IF IT DOES...COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN. SO WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SUNDAY...BUT
IF IT STAYS SUNNY WILL LIKELY END UP WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS DESPITE SOME FORCING...MID
LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CLOSER TO 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE STAY MORE MIXED.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST FORCING COMES POST
FRONTAL...AND LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH WILL STAY POSITIVELY TITLED AS IT
SWINGS ACROSS. THUS FORCING AND MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT GREAT. STILL
LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ALOFT...MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S...WARMEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...WITH TUESDAY LIKELY THE
COOLEST DAY. WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING...WITH LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THESE VALUES ARE
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. SHOULD BE BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS
WELL...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. MODELS
DIVERGE MID WEEK...DUE TO DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH OF OUR NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. SO FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH CONSENSUS VALUES
FOR HIGHS...GIVING MID 50S. AT THIS TIME DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE SEE
ANY GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEVER
SETTLING OVERHEAD. THUS DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AS
OF NOW JUST GOING WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SEEING ANY GREAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS OF NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UNCERTAINTY REMAIN IN REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS/FOG
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO DAYBREAK. CIRRUS REMAINS RATHER THICK ACROSS
THE AREA...HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP. HOWEVER...AS BREAKS
DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TOWARDS THE ELEVATED CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURE IN THE 46-47 DEGREE RANGE. A WEAK SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL SD MAY ALSO ADVECT SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...AND PRIOR TO A WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK...POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE OF LIFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS...WILL ONLY USE A TEMPO GROUP FOR FSD.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER QUICKLY INTO THE
AREA AFTER DAYBREAK AND SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCOUR RATHER
QUICKLY. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY THROUGH
FRIDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KABR 240525 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1225 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN ON FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE 20
PERCENT RANGE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS.
THANKFULLY MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH AFTER PEAK
HEATING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. THESE
READINGS ARE STILL TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON AND THEN
SHOW SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES LATER ON. THE MODELS ALL SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US.
THE WARM SOUTH WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ONE
MORE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 60S. A FRONT THEN COMES THROUGH AND COOLS IT DOWN FOR
MONDAY WITH EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
ISSUE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE HOW MUCH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AT THIS TIME SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE EC AND GEM HAD A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION.
THUS...THE GFS HAD MUCH MORE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND QPF. WITH
THIS DISAGREEMENT...KEPT WITH THE SMALL POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KUNR 240502
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1102 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ARE PARTLY SUNNY WITH MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CROSSING
THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE WITH LEE
TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S...WITH LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS PERSISTING. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING.


&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AND WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COOLER AIR FLOWING INTO THE
REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT
OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL END
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 240502
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1102 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ARE PARTLY SUNNY WITH MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CROSSING
THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE WITH LEE
TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S...WITH LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS PERSISTING. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING.


&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AND WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COOLER AIR FLOWING INTO THE
REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT
OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL END
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KFSD 240341
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1041 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EARLIER FOG/STRATUS GONE BY NOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...AND WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE HAS BEEN THE RULE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BAND OF CIRRUS WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE RUSHMORE STATE...AND REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT WILL BE
THICK ENOUGH IN SPOTS TO IMPAIR VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. VERY DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT AREAS TO THE SOUTH TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA YET HAVE A BIT OF STRATUS TO REMOVE...AND
TRAJECTORY OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS TO DEAL WITH. INVERSION
TONIGHT WILL BE IN PLACE AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT...AND
SHOULD PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE CONDUIT TO TRANSPORT THIS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. LIKELY WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. NAM AND RAP ARE QUITE INDICATIVE OF THE
POTENTIAL...WITH SREF PROBABILITIES GARNERING ATTENTION IN THE 09Z-
12Z WINDOW.  HOWEVER...A BIT MORE WIND...DAY OF DRYING...AND SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS GIVES THIS A BIT MORE STRATUS OVER FOG LOOK
FOR THE LATTER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. TRAJECTORY OF FLOW WOULD
FAVOR MAINLY EAST/SOUTHEAST HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF CWA.  WIND SHIFT
MOVES INTO THE JAMES VALLEY EARLY MORNING...AND THIS INCREASE IN
WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE LOWER
CLOUDS FAIRLY EFFECTIVELY...IF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF SURFACE
IS NOT ENOUGH TO SPEED ALONG ON ITS OWN.

AFTER REMOVAL OF THE LOWER CLOUDS/FOG...FRIDAY WILL SHAPE UP TO BE A
VERY NICE FALL DAY. WINDS PICKING UP A WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL FAVOR
MIXING...AND HAVE ASSUMED THAT THE LACK OF GREATER MIXING DEPTH IN
THE MODELS IS IN ERROR.

WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AS STRONG WAVE MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD STILL MAINTAIN A
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY BALANCE TO THE DAY. THIS COULD IMPACT
WARMING BY A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT OVERALL WILL SEE 70S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL SEE IF ENOUGH MIXING IN PLAY TO BRING SOME READINGS
AROUND 80 WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FILTER INTO THE REGION WILL COOLER UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS...WINDS
TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY.
INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
MAINLY RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY
FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. MAIN WAVE ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TIMING IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE ONSET...BUT
THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM IS LESS CERTAIN. THE GFS
IN PARTICULAR DEVELOPS A MUCH STRONGER NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE THAT
BECOMES CUT OFF AND LIFTS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH A
SLOWER AND STRONGER SOLUTION...THE GFS HOLDS ONTO PRECIPITATION IN
OUR FORECAST AREA LONGEST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT SOME ISOLATED MENTION MAINLY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO THIRDS ON TUESDAY WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE TIMING. WITH CLOUDS..RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT
ARRIVING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS WELL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
IN 50S ON TUESDAY WITH A VERY BRISK NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UNCERTAINTY REMAIN IN REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS/FOG
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO DAYBREAK. CIRRUS REMAINS RATHER THICK ACROSS
THE AREA...HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP. HOWEVER...AS BREAKS
DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TOWARDS THE ELEVATED CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURE IN THE 46-47 DEGREE RANGE. A WEAK SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL SD MAY ALSO ADVECT SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...AND PRIOR TO A WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK...POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE OF LIFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS...WILL ONLY USE A TEMPO GROUP FOR FSD.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER QUICKLY INTO THE
AREA AFTER DAYBREAK AND SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCOUR RATHER
QUICKLY. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 240341
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1041 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EARLIER FOG/STRATUS GONE BY NOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...AND WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE HAS BEEN THE RULE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BAND OF CIRRUS WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE RUSHMORE STATE...AND REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT WILL BE
THICK ENOUGH IN SPOTS TO IMPAIR VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. VERY DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT AREAS TO THE SOUTH TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA YET HAVE A BIT OF STRATUS TO REMOVE...AND
TRAJECTORY OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS TO DEAL WITH. INVERSION
TONIGHT WILL BE IN PLACE AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT...AND
SHOULD PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE CONDUIT TO TRANSPORT THIS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. LIKELY WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. NAM AND RAP ARE QUITE INDICATIVE OF THE
POTENTIAL...WITH SREF PROBABILITIES GARNERING ATTENTION IN THE 09Z-
12Z WINDOW.  HOWEVER...A BIT MORE WIND...DAY OF DRYING...AND SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS GIVES THIS A BIT MORE STRATUS OVER FOG LOOK
FOR THE LATTER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. TRAJECTORY OF FLOW WOULD
FAVOR MAINLY EAST/SOUTHEAST HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF CWA.  WIND SHIFT
MOVES INTO THE JAMES VALLEY EARLY MORNING...AND THIS INCREASE IN
WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE LOWER
CLOUDS FAIRLY EFFECTIVELY...IF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF SURFACE
IS NOT ENOUGH TO SPEED ALONG ON ITS OWN.

AFTER REMOVAL OF THE LOWER CLOUDS/FOG...FRIDAY WILL SHAPE UP TO BE A
VERY NICE FALL DAY. WINDS PICKING UP A WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL FAVOR
MIXING...AND HAVE ASSUMED THAT THE LACK OF GREATER MIXING DEPTH IN
THE MODELS IS IN ERROR.

WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AS STRONG WAVE MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD STILL MAINTAIN A
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY BALANCE TO THE DAY. THIS COULD IMPACT
WARMING BY A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT OVERALL WILL SEE 70S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL SEE IF ENOUGH MIXING IN PLAY TO BRING SOME READINGS
AROUND 80 WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FILTER INTO THE REGION WILL COOLER UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS...WINDS
TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY.
INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
MAINLY RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY
FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. MAIN WAVE ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TIMING IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE ONSET...BUT
THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM IS LESS CERTAIN. THE GFS
IN PARTICULAR DEVELOPS A MUCH STRONGER NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE THAT
BECOMES CUT OFF AND LIFTS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH A
SLOWER AND STRONGER SOLUTION...THE GFS HOLDS ONTO PRECIPITATION IN
OUR FORECAST AREA LONGEST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT SOME ISOLATED MENTION MAINLY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO THIRDS ON TUESDAY WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE TIMING. WITH CLOUDS..RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT
ARRIVING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS WELL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
IN 50S ON TUESDAY WITH A VERY BRISK NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UNCERTAINTY REMAIN IN REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS/FOG
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO DAYBREAK. CIRRUS REMAINS RATHER THICK ACROSS
THE AREA...HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP. HOWEVER...AS BREAKS
DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TOWARDS THE ELEVATED CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURE IN THE 46-47 DEGREE RANGE. A WEAK SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL SD MAY ALSO ADVECT SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...AND PRIOR TO A WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK...POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE OF LIFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS...WILL ONLY USE A TEMPO GROUP FOR FSD.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER QUICKLY INTO THE
AREA AFTER DAYBREAK AND SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCOUR RATHER
QUICKLY. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KABR 240134 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
834 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TNT. QUITE A LOT OF
CIRRUS IS STREAMING INTO THE REGION SO UPPED SKY COVER A NOTCH.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY OFFSET LIGHTS WINDS AND PROVIDE FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL NOT
FIDDLE WITH LOWS FOR NOW IN CASE A PERIOD OF LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS
OCCURS LATE TNT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN ON FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE 20
PERCENT RANGE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS.
THANKFULLY MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH AFTER PEAK
HEATING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. THESE
READINGS ARE STILL TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON AND THEN
SHOW SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES LATER ON. THE MODELS ALL SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US.
THE WARM SOUTH WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ONE
MORE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 60S. A FRONT THEN COMES THROUGH AND COOLS IT DOWN FOR
MONDAY WITH EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
ISSUE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE HOW MUCH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AT THIS TIME SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE EC AND GEM HAD A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION.
THUS...THE GFS HAD MUCH MORE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND QPF. WITH
THIS DISAGREEMENT...KEPT WITH THE SMALL POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KFSD 232314
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
614 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EARLIER FOG/STRATUS GONE BY NOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...AND WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE HAS BEEN THE RULE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BAND OF CIRRUS WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE RUSHMORE STATE...AND REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT WILL BE
THICK ENOUGH IN SPOTS TO IMPAIR VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. VERY DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT AREAS TO THE SOUTH TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA YET HAVE A BIT OF STRATUS TO REMOVE...AND
TRAJECTORY OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS TO DEAL WITH. INVERSION
TONIGHT WILL BE IN PLACE AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT...AND
SHOULD PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE CONDUIT TO TRANSPORT THIS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. LIKELY WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. NAM AND RAP ARE QUITE INDICATIVE OF THE
POTENTIAL...WITH SREF PROBABILITIES GARNERING ATTENTION IN THE 09Z-
12Z WINDOW.  HOWEVER...A BIT MORE WIND...DAY OF DRYING...AND SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS GIVES THIS A BIT MORE STRATUS OVER FOG LOOK
FOR THE LATTER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. TRAJECTORY OF FLOW WOULD
FAVOR MAINLY EAST/SOUTHEAST HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF CWA.  WIND SHIFT
MOVES INTO THE JAMES VALLEY EARLY MORNING...AND THIS INCREASE IN
WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE LOWER
CLOUDS FAIRLY EFFECTIVELY...IF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF SURFACE
IS NOT ENOUGH TO SPEED ALONG ON ITS OWN.

AFTER REMOVAL OF THE LOWER CLOUDS/FOG...FRIDAY WILL SHAPE UP TO BE A
VERY NICE FALL DAY. WINDS PICKING UP A WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL FAVOR
MIXING...AND HAVE ASSUMED THAT THE LACK OF GREATER MIXING DEPTH IN
THE MODELS IS IN ERROR.

WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AS STRONG WAVE MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD STILL MAINTAIN A
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY BALANCE TO THE DAY. THIS COULD IMPACT
WARMING BY A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT OVERALL WILL SEE 70S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL SEE IF ENOUGH MIXING IN PLAY TO BRING SOME READINGS
AROUND 80 WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FILTER INTO THE REGION WILL COOLER UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS...WINDS
TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY.
INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
MAINLY RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY
FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. MAIN WAVE ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TIMING IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE ONSET...BUT
THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM IS LESS CERTAIN. THE GFS
IN PARTICULAR DEVELOPS A MUCH STRONGER NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE THAT
BECOMES CUT OFF AND LIFTS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH A
SLOWER AND STRONGER SOLUTION...THE GFS HOLDS ONTO PRECIPITATION IN
OUR FORECAST AREA LONGEST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT SOME ISOLATED MENTION MAINLY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO THIRDS ON TUESDAY WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE TIMING. WITH CLOUDS..RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT
ARRIVING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS WELL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
IN 50S ON TUESDAY WITH A VERY BRISK NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS EVENING AS QUESTIONS REMAIN TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH SOLUTIONS FROM SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG...NO FOG
AND SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER...TO NONE OF THE ABOVE.

A SIGNIFICANT CIRRUS PLUME CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD THIS
EVENING...COMPLICATING THE FCST AND POSSIBLY PREVENTING A
SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN. WHILE DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED SOME THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT POOL OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE FSD AREA.
WHILE NOT A TRUE RADIATION FOG EVENT...CROSS OVER TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH...AND COULD LEAD TO RAPID FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MORE LIKELY IS STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND ADVECTING NORTHEAST WITH THE LIGHT SE WINDS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR/LIFR FORECAST AND
LOWER VISIBILITY TO AROUND 1 MILE...WITH MAIN IMPACTS AT FSD/SUX.

WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON FRIDAY MORNING...AND WE SHOULD
CLEAR OUT EARLIER THAN THURSDAY. ONCE THAT HAPPENS...VFR
CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KABR 232311 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
611 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN ON FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE 20
PERCENT RANGE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS.
THANKFULLY MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH AFTER PEAK
HEATING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. THESE
READINGS ARE STILL TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON AND THEN
SHOW SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES LATER ON. THE MODELS ALL SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US.
THE WARM SOUTH WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ONE
MORE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 60S. A FRONT THEN COMES THROUGH AND COOLS IT DOWN FOR
MONDAY WITH EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
ISSUE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE HOW MUCH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AT THIS TIME SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE EC AND GEM HAD A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION.
THUS...THE GFS HAD MUCH MORE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND QPF. WITH
THIS DISAGREEMENT...KEPT WITH THE SMALL POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KFSD 232105
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EARLIER FOG/STRATUS GONE BY NOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...AND WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE HAS BEEN THE RULE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BAND OF CIRRUS WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE RUSHMORE STATE...AND REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT WILL BE
THICK ENOUGH IN SPOTS TO IMPAIR VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. VERY DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT AREAS TO THE SOUTH TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA YET HAVE A BIT OF STRATUS TO REMOVE...AND
TRAJECTORY OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS TO DEAL WITH. INVERSION
TONIGHT WILL BE IN PLACE AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT...AND
SHOULD PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE CONDUIT TO TRANSPORT THIS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. LIKELY WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. NAM AND RAP ARE QUITE INDICATIVE OF THE
POTENTIAL...WITH SREF PROBABILITIES GARNERING ATTENTION IN THE 09Z-
12Z WINDOW.  HOWEVER...A BIT MORE WIND...DAY OF DRYING...AND SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS GIVES THIS A BIT MORE STRATUS OVER FOG LOOK
FOR THE LATTER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. TRAJECTORY OF FLOW WOULD
FAVOR MAINLY EAST/SOUTHEAST HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF CWA.  WIND SHIFT
MOVES INTO THE JAMES VALLEY EARLY MORNING...AND THIS INCREASE IN
WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE LOWER
CLOUDS FAIRLY EFFECTIVELY...IF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF SURFACE
IS NOT ENOUGH TO SPEED ALONG ON ITS OWN.

AFTER REMOVAL OF THE LOWER CLOUDS/FOG...FRIDAY WILL SHAPE UP TO BE A
VERY NICE FALL DAY. WINDS PICKING UP A WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL FAVOR
MIXING...AND HAVE ASSUMED THAT THE LACK OF GREATER MIXING DEPTH IN
THE MODELS IS IN ERROR.

WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AS STRONG WAVE MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD STILL MAINTAIN A
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY BALANCE TO THE DAY. THIS COULD IMPACT
WARMING BY A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT OVERALL WILL SEE 70S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL SEE IF ENOUGH MIXING IN PLAY TO BRING SOME READINGS
AROUND 80 WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FILTER INTO THE REGION WILL COOLER UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS...WINDS
TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY.
INTIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD MAINLY
RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY FOR THE
FORECAST AREA WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. MAIN WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY
NIGHT. MODEL TIMING IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE ONSET...BUT THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM IS LESS CERTAIN. THE GFS IN
PARTICULAR DEVELOPS A MUCH STRONGER NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE THAT
BECOMES CUT OFF AND LIFTS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH A SLOWER
AND STRONGER SOLUTION...THE GFS HOLDS ONTO PRECIPITATION IN OUR
FORECAST AREA LONGEST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT SOME ISOLATED MENTION MAINLY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN TWO THIRDS ON TUESDAY WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING.
WITH CLOUDS..RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT
ARRIVING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS WELL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
IN 50S ON TUESDAY WITH A VERY BRISK NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EARLIER WIDESPREAD VLIFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY HAVE
NOW ALL DISSIPATED...BUT ODDS ARE TILTING IN THE FAVOR OF
REDEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN MUCH THE SAME AREA.
WITH INVERSION REMAINING STRONG OVERNIGHT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE INCREASING BENEATH THIS FEATURE FOR KFSD/KSUX
AREAS. LATTER HALF NIGHT LIKELY TO SEE STRATUS AREA EXPAND IN WEAK
LOW LEVEL WIND MAX REGION. LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A STRATUS EVENT
OVER A DENSE FOG EVENT...SO GRADUALLY WORK TOWARD AN MVFR VISIBILITY
LEADING INTO A LONGER PERIOD OF LIFR CEILINGS/IFR VISIBILITY.
ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING...AND FAIRLY SHALLOW
THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE SHOULD HELP TO FLUSH OUT A BIT MORE
EFFICIENTLY THE FOLLOWING MORNING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KABR 232048
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN ON FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE 20
PERCENT RANGE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS.
THANKFULLY MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH AFTER PEAK
HEATING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. THESE
READINGS ARE STILL TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON AND THEN
SHOW SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES LATER ON. THE MODELS ALL SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US.
THE WARM SOUTH WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ONE
MORE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 60S. A FRONT THEN COMES THROUGH AND COOLS IT DOWN FOR
MONDAY WITH EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
ISSUE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE HOW MUCH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AT THIS TIME SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE EC AND GEM HAD A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION.
THUS...THE GFS HAD MUCH MORE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND QPF. WITH
THIS DISAGREEMENT...KEPT WITH THE SMALL POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
TODAY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME FOG
FORMING AT ABR AND ATY LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SMALLER DEW POINT SPREADS. THE FOG
COULD POSSIBLY FALL TO A MILE OR LESS AT ATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KUNR 232046
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
246 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ARE PARTLY SUNNY WITH MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CROSSING
THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE WITH LEE
TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S...WITH LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS PERSISTING. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AND WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COOLER AIR FLOWING INTO THE
REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT
OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL END
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KFSD 231805
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
105 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS EARLY MORNING FOG WHICH HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND
EXITING RAIN SYSTEM. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY RESULTED IN NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AS
TEMPERATURES FELL WITH CLEARING OF MID CLOUDS. THIS HAS ALLOWED
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE I-29 CORRIDOR AS OF 08Z.
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER THIS MORNING TO COVER THIS
THROUGH 15Z/10 AM CDT. SOME HIGH-RES MODELS HOLD ON TO LOWEST
VISIBILITY UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDDAY...AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY LINGERING FOG BEYOND 10 AM GIVEN LOWER SUN ANGLES AND
CONTINUED LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITHIN WEAK RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER
GREATEST CONSENSUS AMONG GUIDANCE IS FOR VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT BY
15Z. CLOUDS/FOG WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATE A QUICK RECOVERY AFTER THE FOG
DISSIPATES AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND NAM DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT.
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AS WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
HIGHER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
DAY SHIFT TO INVESTIGATE WITH NEW GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS PLEASANT...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BRINGING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOME
CIRRUS COULD HOLD DOWN HIGHS A TAD...BUT STILL THINK STAYING ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE IS THE WAY TO GO GIVEN THE LOW HUMIDITY AND
GOOD MIXING BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVE IN...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

SOME UNCERTAINTY BY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING
MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. ONE AREA OF FORCING MOVES ACROSS LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE STAY NORTHEAST OF OUR
AREA...WITH DRY AIR PREVENTING ANY PRECIPITATION OVER US. LOOKS LIKE
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. WILL JUST KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW AS MODEL CONSISTENCY ON QPF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS REMAINS
LOW...BUT THIS PERIOD LIKELY HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

WHAT DOES SEEM MORE CERTAIN IS THAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA EARLY TO MID WEEK. COULD STILL SEE SOME 60S ON
MONDAY...BUT 50S ARE LIKELY BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOWS SHOULD
ALSO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE
THESE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING...THESE VALUES ARE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EARLIER WIDESPREAD VLIFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY HAVE
NOW ALL DISSIPATED...BUT ODDS ARE TILTING IN THE FAVOR OF
REDEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN MUCH THE SAME AREA.
WITH INVERSION REMAINING STRONG OVERNIGHT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE INCREASING BENEATH THIS FEATURE FOR KFSD/KSUX
AREAS. LATTER HALF NIGHT LIKELY TO SEE STRATUS AREA EXPAND IN WEAK
LOW LEVEL WIND MAX REGION. LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A STRATUS EVENT
OVER A DENSE FOG EVENT...SO GRADUALLY WORK TOWARD AN MVFR VISIBILITY
LEADING INTO A LONGER PERIOD OF LIFR CEILINGS/IFR VISIBILITY.
ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING...AND FAIRLY SHALLOW
THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE SHOULD HELP TO FLUSH OUT A BIT MORE
EFFICIENTLY THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 231805
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
105 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS EARLY MORNING FOG WHICH HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND
EXITING RAIN SYSTEM. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY RESULTED IN NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AS
TEMPERATURES FELL WITH CLEARING OF MID CLOUDS. THIS HAS ALLOWED
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE I-29 CORRIDOR AS OF 08Z.
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER THIS MORNING TO COVER THIS
THROUGH 15Z/10 AM CDT. SOME HIGH-RES MODELS HOLD ON TO LOWEST
VISIBILITY UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDDAY...AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY LINGERING FOG BEYOND 10 AM GIVEN LOWER SUN ANGLES AND
CONTINUED LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITHIN WEAK RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER
GREATEST CONSENSUS AMONG GUIDANCE IS FOR VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT BY
15Z. CLOUDS/FOG WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATE A QUICK RECOVERY AFTER THE FOG
DISSIPATES AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND NAM DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT.
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AS WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
HIGHER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
DAY SHIFT TO INVESTIGATE WITH NEW GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS PLEASANT...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BRINGING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOME
CIRRUS COULD HOLD DOWN HIGHS A TAD...BUT STILL THINK STAYING ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE IS THE WAY TO GO GIVEN THE LOW HUMIDITY AND
GOOD MIXING BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVE IN...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

SOME UNCERTAINTY BY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING
MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. ONE AREA OF FORCING MOVES ACROSS LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE STAY NORTHEAST OF OUR
AREA...WITH DRY AIR PREVENTING ANY PRECIPITATION OVER US. LOOKS LIKE
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. WILL JUST KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW AS MODEL CONSISTENCY ON QPF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS REMAINS
LOW...BUT THIS PERIOD LIKELY HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

WHAT DOES SEEM MORE CERTAIN IS THAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA EARLY TO MID WEEK. COULD STILL SEE SOME 60S ON
MONDAY...BUT 50S ARE LIKELY BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOWS SHOULD
ALSO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE
THESE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING...THESE VALUES ARE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EARLIER WIDESPREAD VLIFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY HAVE
NOW ALL DISSIPATED...BUT ODDS ARE TILTING IN THE FAVOR OF
REDEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN MUCH THE SAME AREA.
WITH INVERSION REMAINING STRONG OVERNIGHT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE INCREASING BENEATH THIS FEATURE FOR KFSD/KSUX
AREAS. LATTER HALF NIGHT LIKELY TO SEE STRATUS AREA EXPAND IN WEAK
LOW LEVEL WIND MAX REGION. LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A STRATUS EVENT
OVER A DENSE FOG EVENT...SO GRADUALLY WORK TOWARD AN MVFR VISIBILITY
LEADING INTO A LONGER PERIOD OF LIFR CEILINGS/IFR VISIBILITY.
ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING...AND FAIRLY SHALLOW
THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE SHOULD HELP TO FLUSH OUT A BIT MORE
EFFICIENTLY THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KABR 231750 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SOME FOG FORMED EARLY THANKS TO RECENT RAIN...HOWEVER A
WEST/SOUTHWEST WIND IS INHIBITING EXPANSION...SO WHAT FORMED WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GOOD MIXING
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ONE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM AND A SECOND THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...WILL
BE FOCUSED ON FIRE WEATHER. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 30S...THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE
BIT STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER...WITH
MIXED DOWN WINDS IN THE TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD CLOSER TO CLIMO WITH
LIGHTER WINDS.




.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS
MONDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY GET
PUSHED EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.

WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. COOLER AIR THEN MOVES
IN...WITH HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BACK AROUND NORMAL
VALUES.




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
TODAY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME FOG
FORMING AT ABR AND ATY LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SMALLER DEW POINT SPREADS. THE FOG
COULD POSSIBLY FALL TO A MILE OR LESS AT ATY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 231750 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SOME FOG FORMED EARLY THANKS TO RECENT RAIN...HOWEVER A
WEST/SOUTHWEST WIND IS INHIBITING EXPANSION...SO WHAT FORMED WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GOOD MIXING
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ONE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM AND A SECOND THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...WILL
BE FOCUSED ON FIRE WEATHER. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 30S...THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE
BIT STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER...WITH
MIXED DOWN WINDS IN THE TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD CLOSER TO CLIMO WITH
LIGHTER WINDS.




.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS
MONDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY GET
PUSHED EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.

WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. COOLER AIR THEN MOVES
IN...WITH HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BACK AROUND NORMAL
VALUES.




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
TODAY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME FOG
FORMING AT ABR AND ATY LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SMALLER DEW POINT SPREADS. THE FOG
COULD POSSIBLY FALL TO A MILE OR LESS AT ATY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 231714
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1111 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS
THE AREA...LIMITING INSOLATION. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE TRIMMED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND TEMPS ARE
FALLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S.

UPPER HIGH OVER THE SW US WILL RESULT IN DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S. CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...CREATING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD
HELP KEEP LOWS UP TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 40S. THEN AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A COOL FRONT WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS NORTHWEST SD...THE BLACK HILLS...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST
WY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
BECOME A BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN ND.


&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
LATER SUNDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT AND SOME SHOWERS. COULD BE COLD
ENOUGH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR A BIT OF SNOW AT NIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL END TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10










000
FXUS63 KUNR 231714
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1111 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS
THE AREA...LIMITING INSOLATION. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE TRIMMED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND TEMPS ARE
FALLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S.

UPPER HIGH OVER THE SW US WILL RESULT IN DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S. CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...CREATING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD
HELP KEEP LOWS UP TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 40S. THEN AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A COOL FRONT WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS NORTHWEST SD...THE BLACK HILLS...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST
WY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
BECOME A BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN ND.


&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
LATER SUNDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT AND SOME SHOWERS. COULD BE COLD
ENOUGH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR A BIT OF SNOW AT NIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL END TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10










000
FXUS63 KUNR 231537
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
937 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS
THE AREA...LIMITING INSOLATION. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE TRIMMED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND TEMPS ARE
FALLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S.

UPPER HIGH OVER THE SW US WILL RESULT IN DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S. CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...CREATING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD
HELP KEEP LOWS UP TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 40S. THEN AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A COOL FRONT WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS NORTHWEST SD...THE BLACK HILLS...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST
WY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
BECOME A BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN ND.



&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
LATER SUNDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT AND SOME SHOWERS. COULD BE COLD
ENOUGH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR A BIT OF SNOW AT NIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL END TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON







000
FXUS63 KABR 231525 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1025 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SOME FOG FORMED EARLY THANKS TO RECENT RAIN...HOWEVER A
WEST/SOUTHWEST WIND IS INHIBITING EXPANSION...SO WHAT FORMED WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GOOD MIXING
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ONE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM AND A SECOND THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...WILL
BE FOCUSED ON FIRE WEATHER. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 30S...THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE
BIT STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER...WITH
MIXED DOWN WINDS IN THE TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD CLOSER TO CLIMO WITH
LIGHTER WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS
MONDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY GET
PUSHED EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.

WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. COOLER AIR THEN MOVES
IN...WITH HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BACK AROUND NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...AFFECTING KATY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 231128
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
628 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS EARLY MORNING FOG WHICH HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND
EXITING RAIN SYSTEM. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY RESULTED IN NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AS
TEMPERATURES FELL WITH CLEARING OF MID CLOUDS. THIS HAS ALLOWED
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE I-29 CORRIDOR AS OF 08Z.
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER THIS MORNING TO COVER THIS
THROUGH 15Z/10 AM CDT. SOME HIGH-RES MODELS HOLD ON TO LOWEST
VISIBILITY UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDDAY...AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY LINGERING FOG BEYOND 10 AM GIVEN LOWER SUN ANGLES AND
CONTINUED LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITHIN WEAK RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER
GREATEST CONSENSUS AMONG GUIDANCE IS FOR VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT BY
15Z. CLOUDS/FOG WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATE A QUICK RECOVERY AFTER THE FOG
DISSIPATES AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND NAM DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT.
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AS WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
HIGHER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
DAY SHIFT TO INVESTIGATE WITH NEW GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS PLEASANT...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BRINGING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOME
CIRRUS COULD HOLD DOWN HIGHS A TAD...BUT STILL THINK STAYING ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE IS THE WAY TO GO GIVEN THE LOW HUMIDITY AND
GOOD MIXING BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVE IN...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

SOME UNCERTAINTY BY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING
MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. ONE AREA OF FORCING MOVES ACROSS LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE STAY NORTHEAST OF OUR
AREA...WITH DRY AIR PREVENTING ANY PRECIPITATION OVER US. LOOKS LIKE
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. WILL JUST KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW AS MODEL CONSISTENCY ON QPF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS REMAINS
LOW...BUT THIS PERIOD LIKELY HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

WHAT DOES SEEM MORE CERTAIN IS THAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA EARLY TO MID WEEK. COULD STILL SEE SOME 60S ON
MONDAY...BUT 50S ARE LIKELY BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOWS SHOULD
ALSO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE
THESE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING...THESE VALUES ARE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WIDESPREAD LIFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS IN DENSE FOG OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY 15Z-16Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME MODELS HINTING AT FOG
REDEVELOPMENT AFTER 05Z TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL INVERSION. TRENDED VISIBILITY INTO MVFR-IFR RANGE AT
KFSD/KSUX DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR NOW...
BUT POSSIBLE THAT CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE FURTHER DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ039-040-
     054>056-060>062-065>071.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ071-089-
     097-098.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ001-002-
     012-013-020.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KABR 231124 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SOME FOG FORMED EARLY THANKS TO RECENT RAIN...HOWEVER A
WEST/SOUTHWEST WIND IS INHIBITING EXPANSION...SO WHAT FORMED WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GOOD MIXING
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ONE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM AND A SECOND THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...WILL
BE FOCUSED ON FIRE WEATHER. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 30S...THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE
BIT STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER...WITH
MIXED DOWN WINDS IN THE TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD CLOSER TO CLIMO WITH
LIGHTER WINDS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS
MONDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY GET
PUSHED EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.

WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. COOLER AIR THEN MOVES
IN...WITH HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BACK AROUND NORMAL
VALUES.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...AFFECTING KATY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 230838
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

SOME FOG FORMED EARLY THANKS TO RECENT RAIN...HOWEVER A
WEST/SOUTHWEST WIND IS INHIBITING EXPANSION...SO WHAT FORMED WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GOOD MIXING
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ONE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM AND A SECOND THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...WILL
BE FOCUSED ON FIRE WEATHER. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 30S...THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE
BIT STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER...WITH
MIXED DOWN WINDS IN THE TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD CLOSER TO CLIMO WITH
LIGHTER WINDS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS
MONDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY GET
PUSHED EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.

WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. COOLER AIR THEN MOVES
IN...WITH HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BACK AROUND NORMAL
VALUES.










&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS IN
THE EAST MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LATE NIGHT FOG OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 230834
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
334 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS EARLY MORNING FOG WHICH HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND
EXITING RAIN SYSTEM. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY RESULTED IN NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AS
TEMPERATURES FELL WITH CLEARING OF MID CLOUDS. THIS HAS ALLOWED
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE I-29 CORRIDOR AS OF 08Z.
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER THIS MORNING TO COVER THIS
THROUGH 15Z/10 AM CDT. SOME HIGH-RES MODELS HOLD ON TO LOWEST
VISIBILITY UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDDAY...AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY LINGERING FOG BEYOND 10 AM GIVEN LOWER SUN ANGLES AND
CONTINUED LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITHIN WEAK RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER
GREATEST CONSENSUS AMONG GUIDANCE IS FOR VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT BY
15Z. CLOUDS/FOG WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATE A QUICK RECOVERY AFTER THE FOG
DISSIPATES AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND NAM DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT.
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AS WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
HIGHER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
DAY SHIFT TO INVESTIGATE WITH NEW GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS PLEASANT...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BRINGING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOME
CIRRUS COULD HOLD DOWN HIGHS A TAD...BUT STILL THINK STAYING ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE IS THE WAY TO GO GIVEN THE LOW HUMIDITY AND
GOOD MIXING BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVE IN...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

SOME UNCERTAINTY BY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING
MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. ONE AREA OF FORCING MOVES ACROSS LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE STAY NORTHEAST OF OUR
AREA...WITH DRY AIR PREVENTING ANY PRECIPITATION OVER US. LOOKS LIKE
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. WILL JUST KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW AS MODEL CONSISTENCY ON QPF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS REMAINS
LOW...BUT THIS PERIOD LIKELY HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

WHAT DOES SEEM MORE CERTAIN IS THAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA EARLY TO MID WEEK. COULD STILL SEE SOME 60S ON
MONDAY...BUT 50S ARE LIKELY BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOWS SHOULD
ALSO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE
THESE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING...THESE VALUES ARE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG EDGE OF DEPARTING
MVFR STRATUS DECK AS COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE TURNED VARIABLE...WITH SURFACE TO 925 MB WINDS VERY
LIGHT FROM THE WEST. FEEL THAT WE WILL NOW HAVE A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF IFR TO LIFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE
CONCERNS WILL BE WITH THE DURATION OF THE FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WITH LITTLE TO SCOUR THE MOISTURE
OUT...STRATUS/FOG COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK. FOR NOW...WILL
BE OPTIMISTIC AND SUGGEST THAT STRATUS COULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BEFORE DAYBREAK...OR AT LEAST STABILIZE INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK
WITH IMPROVED VISIBILITY.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AFTER MID-MORNING
THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ039-054-
     055-060>062-065>070.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ098.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ001.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KUNR 230823
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
223 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND TEMPS ARE
FALLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S.

UPPER HIGH OVER THE SW US WILL RESULT IN DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S. CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...CREATING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD
HELP KEEP LOWS UP TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 40S. THEN AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A COOL FRONT WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS NORTHWEST SD...THE BLACK HILLS...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST
WY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
BECOME A BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN ND.


&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
LATER SUNDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT AND SOME SHOWERS. COULD BE COLD
ENOUGH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR A BIT OF SNOW AT NIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL END TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON







000
FXUS63 KABR 230530 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1230 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CENTRAL CWA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THEY ARE
TOO SPORADIC TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BACK END OF THIS BAND
OF PCPN SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG I-29 BY 0Z...AND EAST OF THE CWA
BY 3Z. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WILL COOL OFF MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE COOLING TEMPS...DECENT
MIXING WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN AND INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO COME THROUGH. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST TO BEGIN
THE LONG TERM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FOLLOWING IN BEHIND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASING INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S. WITH WAA ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH SUNSHINE...MAY HAVE
TO RAISE SUNDAY`S HIGHS A LITTLE. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY/WINDY ON SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG WITH GOOD MIXING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS SHOW A SURFACE COOL FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL COOL DOWN INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S. THERE COULD BE SOME UPPER 40S IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
ALSO...WHEN THE COOL FRONT COMES THROUGH...EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS IN
THE EAST MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LATE NIGHT FOG OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 230422
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1022 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER TROF AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH WEAK RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. CLOUDY SKIES
HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH SUNNY SKIES TAKING OVER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 2 PM ARE IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT...AND WARMING INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAIN UPPER TROF EXITS THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK RIDGING THEN RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KFSD 230357
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1057 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

BAND OF SHOWERS PRESENTLY EXITING OVER OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE
THIS EVENING. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN BAND...INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF
THE CWA FOR LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MOVING FROM
NEAR THE JAMES RIVER BASIN AT 21Z TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA BY 08Z. A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z. SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING OUT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH PRETTY LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR 40 IN THE WEST...WHILE
THEY STAY CLOSER TO 50 IN THE EAST. WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...CONTINUED FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA...SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED BY A WAVE SKIMMING THE UNITED
STATES/CANADA BORDER FRIDAY. IN SOME RESPECTS THIS WAVE WILL HELP
ENHANCE MIXING JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
HIGHS A BIT. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TOUGH FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DENSER CIRRUS. WITHOUT ANY CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WOULD
LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...SO WILL AIM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW THAT BENCHMARK. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT MIXING STILL DECENT ON SATURDAY AND
NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER SO TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 60S...A FEW 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...STILL MAINTAINING
THE IDEA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
COOLING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MONDAYS COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A STRING OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL MORE THAN LIKELY SEE HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND A FEW LOWER 70S. A POTENTIALLY STRONG TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE
DEEPENING WILL OCCUR JUST EAST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING A SHOT
OF RAIN ON MONDAY BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WILL BE TO THE
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG EDGE OF DEPARTING
MVFR STRATUS DECK AS COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE TURNED VARIABLE...WITH SURFACE TO 925 MB WINDS VERY
LIGHT FROM THE WEST. FEEL THAT WE WILL NOW HAVE A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF IFR TO LIFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE
CONCERNS WILL BE WITH THE DURATION OF THE FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WITH LITTLE TO SCOUR THE MOISTURE
OUT...STRATUS/FOG COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK. FOR NOW...WILL
BE OPTIMISTIC AND SUGGEST THAT STRATUS COULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BEFORE DAYBREAK...OR AT LEAST STABILIZE INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK
WITH IMPROVED VISIBILITY.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AFTER MID-MORNING
THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.



&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JM
SHORT TERM...GILLISPIE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 230357
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1057 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

BAND OF SHOWERS PRESENTLY EXITING OVER OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE
THIS EVENING. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN BAND...INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF
THE CWA FOR LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MOVING FROM
NEAR THE JAMES RIVER BASIN AT 21Z TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA BY 08Z. A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z. SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING OUT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH PRETTY LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR 40 IN THE WEST...WHILE
THEY STAY CLOSER TO 50 IN THE EAST. WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...CONTINUED FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA...SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED BY A WAVE SKIMMING THE UNITED
STATES/CANADA BORDER FRIDAY. IN SOME RESPECTS THIS WAVE WILL HELP
ENHANCE MIXING JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
HIGHS A BIT. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TOUGH FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DENSER CIRRUS. WITHOUT ANY CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WOULD
LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...SO WILL AIM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW THAT BENCHMARK. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT MIXING STILL DECENT ON SATURDAY AND
NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER SO TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 60S...A FEW 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...STILL MAINTAINING
THE IDEA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
COOLING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MONDAYS COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A STRING OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL MORE THAN LIKELY SEE HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND A FEW LOWER 70S. A POTENTIALLY STRONG TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE
DEEPENING WILL OCCUR JUST EAST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING A SHOT
OF RAIN ON MONDAY BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WILL BE TO THE
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG EDGE OF DEPARTING
MVFR STRATUS DECK AS COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE TURNED VARIABLE...WITH SURFACE TO 925 MB WINDS VERY
LIGHT FROM THE WEST. FEEL THAT WE WILL NOW HAVE A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF IFR TO LIFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE
CONCERNS WILL BE WITH THE DURATION OF THE FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WITH LITTLE TO SCOUR THE MOISTURE
OUT...STRATUS/FOG COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK. FOR NOW...WILL
BE OPTIMISTIC AND SUGGEST THAT STRATUS COULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BEFORE DAYBREAK...OR AT LEAST STABILIZE INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK
WITH IMPROVED VISIBILITY.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AFTER MID-MORNING
THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.



&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JM
SHORT TERM...GILLISPIE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 230254
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
954 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

BAND OF SHOWERS PRESENTLY EXITING OVER OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE
THIS EVENING. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN BAND...INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF
THE CWA FOR LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MOVING FROM
NEAR THE JAMES RIVER BASIN AT 21Z TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA BY 08Z. A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z. SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING OUT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH PRETTY LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR 40 IN THE WEST...WHILE
THEY STAY CLOSER TO 50 IN THE EAST. WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...CONTINUED FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA...SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED BY A WAVE SKIMMING THE UNITED
STATES/CANADA BORDER FRIDAY. IN SOME RESPECTS THIS WAVE WILL HELP
ENHANCE MIXING JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
HIGHS A BIT. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TOUGH FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DENSER CIRRUS. WITHOUT ANY CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WOULD
LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...SO WILL AIM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW THAT BENCHMARK. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT MIXING STILL DECENT ON SATURDAY AND
NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER SO TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 60S...A FEW 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...STILL MAINTAINING
THE IDEA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
COOLING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MONDAYS COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A STRING OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL MORE THAN LIKELY SEE HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND A FEW LOWER 70S. A POTENTIALLY STRONG TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE
DEEPENING WILL OCCUR JUST EAST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING A SHOT
OF RAIN ON MONDAY BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WILL BE TO THE
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE TERMINALS BY 02Z AT THE LATEST. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF A VERY BRIEF WINDOW FOR A MVFR CLOUD DECK
DIRECTLY BEHIND THE LINEAR BAND OF RAIN.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COULD ALLOW
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS
TAF ISSUANCE...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING.

THURSDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH CIRRUS ARRIVING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND WINDS REMAINING LIGHT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JM
SHORT TERM...GILLISPIE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KABR 230145 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
845 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOMEWHAT HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
CWA...WINDS GOING LIGHT...SKIES CLEARING...AND LITTLE DRY AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE
FORECAST FOR LATE TNT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS OKAY FOR NOW. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CENTRAL CWA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THEY ARE
TOO SPORADIC TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BACK END OF THIS BAND
OF PCPN SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG I-29 BY 0Z...AND EAST OF THE CWA
BY 3Z. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WILL COOL OFF MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE COOLING TEMPS...DECENT
MIXING WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN AND INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO COME THROUGH. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST TO BEGIN
THE LONG TERM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FOLLOWING IN BEHIND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASING INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S. WITH WAA ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH SUNSHINE...MAY HAVE
TO RAISE SUNDAY`S HIGHS A LITTLE. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY/WINDY ON SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG WITH GOOD MIXING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS SHOW A SURFACE COOL FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL COOL DOWN INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S. THERE COULD BE SOME UPPER 40S IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
ALSO...WHEN THE COOL FRONT COMES THROUGH...EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
AS WINDS SLACKEN AND SKIES CLEAR SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE...ESPECIALLY AT KATY/KABR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 230145 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
845 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOMEWHAT HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
CWA...WINDS GOING LIGHT...SKIES CLEARING...AND LITTLE DRY AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE
FORECAST FOR LATE TNT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS OKAY FOR NOW. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CENTRAL CWA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THEY ARE
TOO SPORADIC TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BACK END OF THIS BAND
OF PCPN SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG I-29 BY 0Z...AND EAST OF THE CWA
BY 3Z. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WILL COOL OFF MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE COOLING TEMPS...DECENT
MIXING WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN AND INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO COME THROUGH. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST TO BEGIN
THE LONG TERM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FOLLOWING IN BEHIND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASING INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S. WITH WAA ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH SUNSHINE...MAY HAVE
TO RAISE SUNDAY`S HIGHS A LITTLE. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY/WINDY ON SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG WITH GOOD MIXING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS SHOW A SURFACE COOL FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL COOL DOWN INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S. THERE COULD BE SOME UPPER 40S IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
ALSO...WHEN THE COOL FRONT COMES THROUGH...EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
AS WINDS SLACKEN AND SKIES CLEAR SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE...ESPECIALLY AT KATY/KABR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 222315
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
515 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER TROF AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH WEAK RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. CLOUDY SKIES
HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH SUNNY SKIES TAKING OVER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 2 PM ARE IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT...AND WARMING INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.


&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAIN UPPER TROF EXITS THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK RIDGING THEN RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KABR 222315 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
615 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CENTRAL CWA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THEY ARE
TOO SPORADIC TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BACK END OF THIS BAND
OF PCPN SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG I-29 BY 0Z...AND EAST OF THE CWA
BY 3Z. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WILL COOL OFF MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE COOLING TEMPS...DECENT
MIXING WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN AND INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO COME THROUGH. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST TO BEGIN
THE LONG TERM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FOLLOWING IN BEHIND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASING INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S. WITH WAA ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH SUNSHINE...MAY HAVE
TO RAISE SUNDAY`S HIGHS A LITTLE. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY/WINDY ON SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG WITH GOOD MIXING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS SHOW A SURFACE COOL FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL COOL DOWN INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S. THERE COULD BE SOME UPPER 40S IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
ALSO...WHEN THE COOL FRONT COMES THROUGH...EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
AS WINDS SLACKEN AND SKIES CLEAR SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE...ESPECIALLY AT KATY/KABR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KUNR 222315
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
515 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER TROF AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH WEAK RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. CLOUDY SKIES
HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH SUNNY SKIES TAKING OVER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 2 PM ARE IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT...AND WARMING INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.


&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAIN UPPER TROF EXITS THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK RIDGING THEN RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KABR 222315 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
615 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CENTRAL CWA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THEY ARE
TOO SPORADIC TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BACK END OF THIS BAND
OF PCPN SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG I-29 BY 0Z...AND EAST OF THE CWA
BY 3Z. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WILL COOL OFF MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE COOLING TEMPS...DECENT
MIXING WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN AND INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO COME THROUGH. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST TO BEGIN
THE LONG TERM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FOLLOWING IN BEHIND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASING INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S. WITH WAA ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH SUNSHINE...MAY HAVE
TO RAISE SUNDAY`S HIGHS A LITTLE. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY/WINDY ON SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG WITH GOOD MIXING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS SHOW A SURFACE COOL FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL COOL DOWN INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S. THERE COULD BE SOME UPPER 40S IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
ALSO...WHEN THE COOL FRONT COMES THROUGH...EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
AS WINDS SLACKEN AND SKIES CLEAR SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE...ESPECIALLY AT KATY/KABR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KFSD 222309
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
609 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MOVING FROM
NEAR THE JAMES RIVER BASIN AT 21Z TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA BY 08Z. A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z. SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING OUT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH PRETTY LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR 40 IN THE WEST...WHILE
THEY STAY CLOSER TO 50 IN THE EAST. WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...CONTINUED FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA...SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED BY A WAVE SKIMMING THE UNITED
STATES/CANADA BORDER FRIDAY. IN SOME RESPECTS THIS WAVE WILL HELP
ENHANCE MIXING JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
HIGHS A BIT. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TOUGH FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DENSER CIRRUS. WITHOUT ANY CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WOULD
LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...SO WILL AIM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW THAT BENCHMARK. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT MIXING STILL DECENT ON SATURDAY AND
NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER SO TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 60S...A FEW 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...STILL MAINTAINING
THE IDEA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
COOLING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MONDAYS COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A STRING OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL MORE THAN LIKELY SEE HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND A FEW LOWER 70S. A POTENTIALLY STRONG TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE
DEEPENING WILL OCCUR JUST EAST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING A SHOT
OF RAIN ON MONDAY BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WILL BE TO THE
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE TERMINALS BY 02Z AT THE LATEST. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF A VERY BRIEF WINDOW FOR A MVFR CLOUD DECK
DIRECTLY BEHIND THE LINEAR BAND OF RAIN.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COULD ALLOW
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS
TAF ISSUANCE...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING.

THURSDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH CIRRUS ARRIVING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND WINDS REMAINING LIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GILLISPIE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 222309
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
609 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MOVING FROM
NEAR THE JAMES RIVER BASIN AT 21Z TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA BY 08Z. A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z. SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING OUT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH PRETTY LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR 40 IN THE WEST...WHILE
THEY STAY CLOSER TO 50 IN THE EAST. WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...CONTINUED FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA...SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED BY A WAVE SKIMMING THE UNITED
STATES/CANADA BORDER FRIDAY. IN SOME RESPECTS THIS WAVE WILL HELP
ENHANCE MIXING JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
HIGHS A BIT. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TOUGH FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DENSER CIRRUS. WITHOUT ANY CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WOULD
LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...SO WILL AIM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW THAT BENCHMARK. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT MIXING STILL DECENT ON SATURDAY AND
NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER SO TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 60S...A FEW 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...STILL MAINTAINING
THE IDEA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
COOLING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MONDAYS COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A STRING OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL MORE THAN LIKELY SEE HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND A FEW LOWER 70S. A POTENTIALLY STRONG TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE
DEEPENING WILL OCCUR JUST EAST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING A SHOT
OF RAIN ON MONDAY BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WILL BE TO THE
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE TERMINALS BY 02Z AT THE LATEST. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF A VERY BRIEF WINDOW FOR A MVFR CLOUD DECK
DIRECTLY BEHIND THE LINEAR BAND OF RAIN.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COULD ALLOW
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS
TAF ISSUANCE...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING.

THURSDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH CIRRUS ARRIVING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND WINDS REMAINING LIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GILLISPIE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DUX




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