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000
FXUS63 KFSD 042328
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
628 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES APPEARS ON VISUAL IMAGERY TO BE GETTING
PUSHED EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE INCREASING FLOW AT LOW
AND MID LEVELS. IN ANY EVENT I WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE PUBLIC
GRIDS AS I DID EARLIER IN THE TAFS. AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE
IS STILL LOOKING WEAK FOR TONIGHT AND PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SEEMS NOT
SO MUCH DUE TO THE LACK OF HEATING IN THIS REALM OF NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION...BUT MORE FROM WEAKENING THERMAL SUPPORT FOR INITIATION
AND SUPPORT AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY INCREASES FROM THE WEST. WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE LOW AND MAINLY FAR WEST.

ONE THING THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEADY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL DO IS HOLD UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY DAYTIME LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT HOLDING NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...BEING RESTRICTED TO
LATE IN THE DAY IN THE CAPPED AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL
ALLOW THE CHANCE TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTHWEST LEADING UP TO WIDESPREAD STORMS AT NIGHT...BUT
MOST OF THE DAY EVEN NORTHWEST...AND ALL OF IT TO THE SOUTHEAST...
SHOULD BE DRY BREEZY AND PRETTY WARM WITH HEATING NOT RESTRICTED TOO
MUCH BY SOME CLOUD INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. HAVE RAISED
WIND SPEEDS A NOTCH OR TWO FURTHER INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY FROM
MODEL BLENDS GIVEN THE HEALTHIER WINDS NOT TOO FAR UP ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE UPPER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S
WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY REMAIN THE BIGGEST
CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS PATTERN PERSISTENCE CONTINUES IN
THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STOUT CAP HOLDING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR MOST AREAS. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO BLOSSOM
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE ND/SD/MN BORDERS BY 21Z...AS A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER NORTHERN ND/MN BEINGS TO SLIDE EAST. OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN SD...A SECOND SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL IGNITE A SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY THESE WAVES WILL BEGIN TO PHASE
TOGETHER...BRINGING STRONG UPR DIVERGENCE INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY
LEADING TO CONVECTING ZIPPING THROUGH CENTRAL SD ALONG THE FRONT
IN THE EVENING. THIS CONVECTION WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA...BUT SHOULD ENTER THE CWA BY 03Z. MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY...NEARLY 4K J/KG MLCAPE FROM NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
AND 3K J/KG FROM GFE...COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID- UPR LVL SHEAR
APPROACHING 30-40 KNOTS...WILL PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL RISK
ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE
VALUES ARE ALSO RATHER IMPRESSIVE...ALSO OWING TO A DAMAGING WIND
RISK. THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF STORMS MAY LEAD TO MORE OF A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS STORMS BEGIN TO COALESCE INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AND SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN SD AND MN AS THE LLJ
INCREASES. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT...AS
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANCIAL MUCAPE AND ONLY A MARGINALLY DECOUPLED
BOUNDARY LAYER.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES ON...THE RISK OF ELEVATED RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING INCREASES.  PWAT VALUES APPROACH 1.75 INCHES OR
HIGHER...WHICH BASED ON ABR CLIMATOLOGY...IS APPROACHING THE MAX
VALUES RECORDED FOR JULY 5TH. THE OTHER CONCERNING FACTOR IS THE
BOUNDARY PARALLEL FLOW THAT DEVELOPS AS CONVECTION SLIDES
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL TRAINING OF
STORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

CONVECTION WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.  BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...MODEL VARIANCE DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE...AS A
PROGRESSIVE MID-LVL PATTERN PERSISTS. THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS UPR TROUGHING
SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AGAIN...DEEP MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...SO POPS REMAIN ON THE LOWER END DUE TO ANTICIPATED
COVERAGE.

BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WE MAY BEGIN TO ESTABLISH A WARMER FLOW
REGIME...SUGGESTIVE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THIS REMAINS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...THOUGH MAY
STILL SEE SPOTTY MVFR VISIBILITY EAST OF I-29 THIS EVENING DUE TO
LINGERING SMOKE. WILL BE WATCHING FOR ISOLATED STORM THREAT WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN POSSIBLY LATE TONIGHT IN
AREAS WEST OF I-29...BUT EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE AND LIMITED
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT PRECLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS. STORM THREAT
MAY BEGIN IN FAR NORTHWEST AREAS AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...BUT MORE LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 05/00Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 042328
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
628 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES APPEARS ON VISUAL IMAGERY TO BE GETTING
PUSHED EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE INCREASING FLOW AT LOW
AND MID LEVELS. IN ANY EVENT I WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE PUBLIC
GRIDS AS I DID EARLIER IN THE TAFS. AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE
IS STILL LOOKING WEAK FOR TONIGHT AND PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SEEMS NOT
SO MUCH DUE TO THE LACK OF HEATING IN THIS REALM OF NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION...BUT MORE FROM WEAKENING THERMAL SUPPORT FOR INITIATION
AND SUPPORT AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY INCREASES FROM THE WEST. WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE LOW AND MAINLY FAR WEST.

ONE THING THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEADY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL DO IS HOLD UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY DAYTIME LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT HOLDING NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...BEING RESTRICTED TO
LATE IN THE DAY IN THE CAPPED AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL
ALLOW THE CHANCE TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTHWEST LEADING UP TO WIDESPREAD STORMS AT NIGHT...BUT
MOST OF THE DAY EVEN NORTHWEST...AND ALL OF IT TO THE SOUTHEAST...
SHOULD BE DRY BREEZY AND PRETTY WARM WITH HEATING NOT RESTRICTED TOO
MUCH BY SOME CLOUD INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. HAVE RAISED
WIND SPEEDS A NOTCH OR TWO FURTHER INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY FROM
MODEL BLENDS GIVEN THE HEALTHIER WINDS NOT TOO FAR UP ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE UPPER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S
WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY REMAIN THE BIGGEST
CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS PATTERN PERSISTENCE CONTINUES IN
THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STOUT CAP HOLDING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR MOST AREAS. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO BLOSSOM
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE ND/SD/MN BORDERS BY 21Z...AS A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER NORTHERN ND/MN BEINGS TO SLIDE EAST. OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN SD...A SECOND SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL IGNITE A SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY THESE WAVES WILL BEGIN TO PHASE
TOGETHER...BRINGING STRONG UPR DIVERGENCE INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY
LEADING TO CONVECTING ZIPPING THROUGH CENTRAL SD ALONG THE FRONT
IN THE EVENING. THIS CONVECTION WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA...BUT SHOULD ENTER THE CWA BY 03Z. MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY...NEARLY 4K J/KG MLCAPE FROM NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
AND 3K J/KG FROM GFE...COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID- UPR LVL SHEAR
APPROACHING 30-40 KNOTS...WILL PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL RISK
ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE
VALUES ARE ALSO RATHER IMPRESSIVE...ALSO OWING TO A DAMAGING WIND
RISK. THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF STORMS MAY LEAD TO MORE OF A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS STORMS BEGIN TO COALESCE INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AND SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN SD AND MN AS THE LLJ
INCREASES. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT...AS
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANCIAL MUCAPE AND ONLY A MARGINALLY DECOUPLED
BOUNDARY LAYER.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES ON...THE RISK OF ELEVATED RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING INCREASES.  PWAT VALUES APPROACH 1.75 INCHES OR
HIGHER...WHICH BASED ON ABR CLIMATOLOGY...IS APPROACHING THE MAX
VALUES RECORDED FOR JULY 5TH. THE OTHER CONCERNING FACTOR IS THE
BOUNDARY PARALLEL FLOW THAT DEVELOPS AS CONVECTION SLIDES
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL TRAINING OF
STORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

CONVECTION WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.  BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...MODEL VARIANCE DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE...AS A
PROGRESSIVE MID-LVL PATTERN PERSISTS. THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS UPR TROUGHING
SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AGAIN...DEEP MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...SO POPS REMAIN ON THE LOWER END DUE TO ANTICIPATED
COVERAGE.

BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WE MAY BEGIN TO ESTABLISH A WARMER FLOW
REGIME...SUGGESTIVE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THIS REMAINS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...THOUGH MAY
STILL SEE SPOTTY MVFR VISIBILITY EAST OF I-29 THIS EVENING DUE TO
LINGERING SMOKE. WILL BE WATCHING FOR ISOLATED STORM THREAT WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN POSSIBLY LATE TONIGHT IN
AREAS WEST OF I-29...BUT EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE AND LIMITED
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT PRECLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS. STORM THREAT
MAY BEGIN IN FAR NORTHWEST AREAS AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...BUT MORE LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 05/00Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 042328
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
628 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES APPEARS ON VISUAL IMAGERY TO BE GETTING
PUSHED EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE INCREASING FLOW AT LOW
AND MID LEVELS. IN ANY EVENT I WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE PUBLIC
GRIDS AS I DID EARLIER IN THE TAFS. AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE
IS STILL LOOKING WEAK FOR TONIGHT AND PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SEEMS NOT
SO MUCH DUE TO THE LACK OF HEATING IN THIS REALM OF NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION...BUT MORE FROM WEAKENING THERMAL SUPPORT FOR INITIATION
AND SUPPORT AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY INCREASES FROM THE WEST. WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE LOW AND MAINLY FAR WEST.

ONE THING THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEADY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL DO IS HOLD UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY DAYTIME LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT HOLDING NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...BEING RESTRICTED TO
LATE IN THE DAY IN THE CAPPED AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL
ALLOW THE CHANCE TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTHWEST LEADING UP TO WIDESPREAD STORMS AT NIGHT...BUT
MOST OF THE DAY EVEN NORTHWEST...AND ALL OF IT TO THE SOUTHEAST...
SHOULD BE DRY BREEZY AND PRETTY WARM WITH HEATING NOT RESTRICTED TOO
MUCH BY SOME CLOUD INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. HAVE RAISED
WIND SPEEDS A NOTCH OR TWO FURTHER INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY FROM
MODEL BLENDS GIVEN THE HEALTHIER WINDS NOT TOO FAR UP ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE UPPER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S
WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY REMAIN THE BIGGEST
CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS PATTERN PERSISTENCE CONTINUES IN
THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STOUT CAP HOLDING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR MOST AREAS. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO BLOSSOM
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE ND/SD/MN BORDERS BY 21Z...AS A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER NORTHERN ND/MN BEINGS TO SLIDE EAST. OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN SD...A SECOND SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL IGNITE A SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY THESE WAVES WILL BEGIN TO PHASE
TOGETHER...BRINGING STRONG UPR DIVERGENCE INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY
LEADING TO CONVECTING ZIPPING THROUGH CENTRAL SD ALONG THE FRONT
IN THE EVENING. THIS CONVECTION WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA...BUT SHOULD ENTER THE CWA BY 03Z. MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY...NEARLY 4K J/KG MLCAPE FROM NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
AND 3K J/KG FROM GFE...COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID- UPR LVL SHEAR
APPROACHING 30-40 KNOTS...WILL PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL RISK
ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE
VALUES ARE ALSO RATHER IMPRESSIVE...ALSO OWING TO A DAMAGING WIND
RISK. THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF STORMS MAY LEAD TO MORE OF A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS STORMS BEGIN TO COALESCE INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AND SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN SD AND MN AS THE LLJ
INCREASES. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT...AS
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANCIAL MUCAPE AND ONLY A MARGINALLY DECOUPLED
BOUNDARY LAYER.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES ON...THE RISK OF ELEVATED RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING INCREASES.  PWAT VALUES APPROACH 1.75 INCHES OR
HIGHER...WHICH BASED ON ABR CLIMATOLOGY...IS APPROACHING THE MAX
VALUES RECORDED FOR JULY 5TH. THE OTHER CONCERNING FACTOR IS THE
BOUNDARY PARALLEL FLOW THAT DEVELOPS AS CONVECTION SLIDES
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL TRAINING OF
STORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

CONVECTION WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.  BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...MODEL VARIANCE DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE...AS A
PROGRESSIVE MID-LVL PATTERN PERSISTS. THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS UPR TROUGHING
SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AGAIN...DEEP MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...SO POPS REMAIN ON THE LOWER END DUE TO ANTICIPATED
COVERAGE.

BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WE MAY BEGIN TO ESTABLISH A WARMER FLOW
REGIME...SUGGESTIVE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THIS REMAINS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...THOUGH MAY
STILL SEE SPOTTY MVFR VISIBILITY EAST OF I-29 THIS EVENING DUE TO
LINGERING SMOKE. WILL BE WATCHING FOR ISOLATED STORM THREAT WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN POSSIBLY LATE TONIGHT IN
AREAS WEST OF I-29...BUT EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE AND LIMITED
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT PRECLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS. STORM THREAT
MAY BEGIN IN FAR NORTHWEST AREAS AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...BUT MORE LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 05/00Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 042328
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
628 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES APPEARS ON VISUAL IMAGERY TO BE GETTING
PUSHED EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE INCREASING FLOW AT LOW
AND MID LEVELS. IN ANY EVENT I WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE PUBLIC
GRIDS AS I DID EARLIER IN THE TAFS. AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE
IS STILL LOOKING WEAK FOR TONIGHT AND PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SEEMS NOT
SO MUCH DUE TO THE LACK OF HEATING IN THIS REALM OF NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION...BUT MORE FROM WEAKENING THERMAL SUPPORT FOR INITIATION
AND SUPPORT AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY INCREASES FROM THE WEST. WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE LOW AND MAINLY FAR WEST.

ONE THING THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEADY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL DO IS HOLD UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY DAYTIME LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT HOLDING NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...BEING RESTRICTED TO
LATE IN THE DAY IN THE CAPPED AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL
ALLOW THE CHANCE TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTHWEST LEADING UP TO WIDESPREAD STORMS AT NIGHT...BUT
MOST OF THE DAY EVEN NORTHWEST...AND ALL OF IT TO THE SOUTHEAST...
SHOULD BE DRY BREEZY AND PRETTY WARM WITH HEATING NOT RESTRICTED TOO
MUCH BY SOME CLOUD INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. HAVE RAISED
WIND SPEEDS A NOTCH OR TWO FURTHER INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY FROM
MODEL BLENDS GIVEN THE HEALTHIER WINDS NOT TOO FAR UP ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE UPPER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S
WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY REMAIN THE BIGGEST
CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS PATTERN PERSISTENCE CONTINUES IN
THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STOUT CAP HOLDING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR MOST AREAS. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO BLOSSOM
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE ND/SD/MN BORDERS BY 21Z...AS A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER NORTHERN ND/MN BEINGS TO SLIDE EAST. OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN SD...A SECOND SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL IGNITE A SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY THESE WAVES WILL BEGIN TO PHASE
TOGETHER...BRINGING STRONG UPR DIVERGENCE INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY
LEADING TO CONVECTING ZIPPING THROUGH CENTRAL SD ALONG THE FRONT
IN THE EVENING. THIS CONVECTION WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA...BUT SHOULD ENTER THE CWA BY 03Z. MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY...NEARLY 4K J/KG MLCAPE FROM NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
AND 3K J/KG FROM GFE...COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID- UPR LVL SHEAR
APPROACHING 30-40 KNOTS...WILL PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL RISK
ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE
VALUES ARE ALSO RATHER IMPRESSIVE...ALSO OWING TO A DAMAGING WIND
RISK. THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF STORMS MAY LEAD TO MORE OF A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS STORMS BEGIN TO COALESCE INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AND SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN SD AND MN AS THE LLJ
INCREASES. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT...AS
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANCIAL MUCAPE AND ONLY A MARGINALLY DECOUPLED
BOUNDARY LAYER.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES ON...THE RISK OF ELEVATED RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING INCREASES.  PWAT VALUES APPROACH 1.75 INCHES OR
HIGHER...WHICH BASED ON ABR CLIMATOLOGY...IS APPROACHING THE MAX
VALUES RECORDED FOR JULY 5TH. THE OTHER CONCERNING FACTOR IS THE
BOUNDARY PARALLEL FLOW THAT DEVELOPS AS CONVECTION SLIDES
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL TRAINING OF
STORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

CONVECTION WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.  BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...MODEL VARIANCE DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE...AS A
PROGRESSIVE MID-LVL PATTERN PERSISTS. THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS UPR TROUGHING
SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AGAIN...DEEP MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...SO POPS REMAIN ON THE LOWER END DUE TO ANTICIPATED
COVERAGE.

BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WE MAY BEGIN TO ESTABLISH A WARMER FLOW
REGIME...SUGGESTIVE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THIS REMAINS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...THOUGH MAY
STILL SEE SPOTTY MVFR VISIBILITY EAST OF I-29 THIS EVENING DUE TO
LINGERING SMOKE. WILL BE WATCHING FOR ISOLATED STORM THREAT WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN POSSIBLY LATE TONIGHT IN
AREAS WEST OF I-29...BUT EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE AND LIMITED
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT PRECLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS. STORM THREAT
MAY BEGIN IN FAR NORTHWEST AREAS AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...BUT MORE LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 05/00Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 042328
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
628 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES APPEARS ON VISUAL IMAGERY TO BE GETTING
PUSHED EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE INCREASING FLOW AT LOW
AND MID LEVELS. IN ANY EVENT I WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE PUBLIC
GRIDS AS I DID EARLIER IN THE TAFS. AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE
IS STILL LOOKING WEAK FOR TONIGHT AND PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SEEMS NOT
SO MUCH DUE TO THE LACK OF HEATING IN THIS REALM OF NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION...BUT MORE FROM WEAKENING THERMAL SUPPORT FOR INITIATION
AND SUPPORT AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY INCREASES FROM THE WEST. WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE LOW AND MAINLY FAR WEST.

ONE THING THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEADY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL DO IS HOLD UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY DAYTIME LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT HOLDING NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...BEING RESTRICTED TO
LATE IN THE DAY IN THE CAPPED AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL
ALLOW THE CHANCE TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTHWEST LEADING UP TO WIDESPREAD STORMS AT NIGHT...BUT
MOST OF THE DAY EVEN NORTHWEST...AND ALL OF IT TO THE SOUTHEAST...
SHOULD BE DRY BREEZY AND PRETTY WARM WITH HEATING NOT RESTRICTED TOO
MUCH BY SOME CLOUD INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. HAVE RAISED
WIND SPEEDS A NOTCH OR TWO FURTHER INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY FROM
MODEL BLENDS GIVEN THE HEALTHIER WINDS NOT TOO FAR UP ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE UPPER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S
WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY REMAIN THE BIGGEST
CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS PATTERN PERSISTENCE CONTINUES IN
THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STOUT CAP HOLDING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR MOST AREAS. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO BLOSSOM
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE ND/SD/MN BORDERS BY 21Z...AS A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER NORTHERN ND/MN BEINGS TO SLIDE EAST. OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN SD...A SECOND SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL IGNITE A SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY THESE WAVES WILL BEGIN TO PHASE
TOGETHER...BRINGING STRONG UPR DIVERGENCE INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY
LEADING TO CONVECTING ZIPPING THROUGH CENTRAL SD ALONG THE FRONT
IN THE EVENING. THIS CONVECTION WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA...BUT SHOULD ENTER THE CWA BY 03Z. MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY...NEARLY 4K J/KG MLCAPE FROM NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
AND 3K J/KG FROM GFE...COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID- UPR LVL SHEAR
APPROACHING 30-40 KNOTS...WILL PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL RISK
ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE
VALUES ARE ALSO RATHER IMPRESSIVE...ALSO OWING TO A DAMAGING WIND
RISK. THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF STORMS MAY LEAD TO MORE OF A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS STORMS BEGIN TO COALESCE INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AND SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN SD AND MN AS THE LLJ
INCREASES. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT...AS
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANCIAL MUCAPE AND ONLY A MARGINALLY DECOUPLED
BOUNDARY LAYER.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES ON...THE RISK OF ELEVATED RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING INCREASES.  PWAT VALUES APPROACH 1.75 INCHES OR
HIGHER...WHICH BASED ON ABR CLIMATOLOGY...IS APPROACHING THE MAX
VALUES RECORDED FOR JULY 5TH. THE OTHER CONCERNING FACTOR IS THE
BOUNDARY PARALLEL FLOW THAT DEVELOPS AS CONVECTION SLIDES
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL TRAINING OF
STORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

CONVECTION WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.  BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...MODEL VARIANCE DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE...AS A
PROGRESSIVE MID-LVL PATTERN PERSISTS. THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS UPR TROUGHING
SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AGAIN...DEEP MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...SO POPS REMAIN ON THE LOWER END DUE TO ANTICIPATED
COVERAGE.

BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WE MAY BEGIN TO ESTABLISH A WARMER FLOW
REGIME...SUGGESTIVE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THIS REMAINS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...THOUGH MAY
STILL SEE SPOTTY MVFR VISIBILITY EAST OF I-29 THIS EVENING DUE TO
LINGERING SMOKE. WILL BE WATCHING FOR ISOLATED STORM THREAT WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN POSSIBLY LATE TONIGHT IN
AREAS WEST OF I-29...BUT EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE AND LIMITED
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT PRECLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS. STORM THREAT
MAY BEGIN IN FAR NORTHWEST AREAS AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...BUT MORE LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 05/00Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 042328
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
628 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES APPEARS ON VISUAL IMAGERY TO BE GETTING
PUSHED EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE INCREASING FLOW AT LOW
AND MID LEVELS. IN ANY EVENT I WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE PUBLIC
GRIDS AS I DID EARLIER IN THE TAFS. AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE
IS STILL LOOKING WEAK FOR TONIGHT AND PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SEEMS NOT
SO MUCH DUE TO THE LACK OF HEATING IN THIS REALM OF NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION...BUT MORE FROM WEAKENING THERMAL SUPPORT FOR INITIATION
AND SUPPORT AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY INCREASES FROM THE WEST. WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE LOW AND MAINLY FAR WEST.

ONE THING THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEADY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL DO IS HOLD UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY DAYTIME LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT HOLDING NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...BEING RESTRICTED TO
LATE IN THE DAY IN THE CAPPED AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL
ALLOW THE CHANCE TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTHWEST LEADING UP TO WIDESPREAD STORMS AT NIGHT...BUT
MOST OF THE DAY EVEN NORTHWEST...AND ALL OF IT TO THE SOUTHEAST...
SHOULD BE DRY BREEZY AND PRETTY WARM WITH HEATING NOT RESTRICTED TOO
MUCH BY SOME CLOUD INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. HAVE RAISED
WIND SPEEDS A NOTCH OR TWO FURTHER INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY FROM
MODEL BLENDS GIVEN THE HEALTHIER WINDS NOT TOO FAR UP ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE UPPER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S
WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY REMAIN THE BIGGEST
CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS PATTERN PERSISTENCE CONTINUES IN
THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STOUT CAP HOLDING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR MOST AREAS. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO BLOSSOM
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE ND/SD/MN BORDERS BY 21Z...AS A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER NORTHERN ND/MN BEINGS TO SLIDE EAST. OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN SD...A SECOND SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL IGNITE A SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY THESE WAVES WILL BEGIN TO PHASE
TOGETHER...BRINGING STRONG UPR DIVERGENCE INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY
LEADING TO CONVECTING ZIPPING THROUGH CENTRAL SD ALONG THE FRONT
IN THE EVENING. THIS CONVECTION WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA...BUT SHOULD ENTER THE CWA BY 03Z. MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY...NEARLY 4K J/KG MLCAPE FROM NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
AND 3K J/KG FROM GFE...COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID- UPR LVL SHEAR
APPROACHING 30-40 KNOTS...WILL PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL RISK
ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE
VALUES ARE ALSO RATHER IMPRESSIVE...ALSO OWING TO A DAMAGING WIND
RISK. THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF STORMS MAY LEAD TO MORE OF A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS STORMS BEGIN TO COALESCE INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AND SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN SD AND MN AS THE LLJ
INCREASES. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT...AS
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANCIAL MUCAPE AND ONLY A MARGINALLY DECOUPLED
BOUNDARY LAYER.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES ON...THE RISK OF ELEVATED RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING INCREASES.  PWAT VALUES APPROACH 1.75 INCHES OR
HIGHER...WHICH BASED ON ABR CLIMATOLOGY...IS APPROACHING THE MAX
VALUES RECORDED FOR JULY 5TH. THE OTHER CONCERNING FACTOR IS THE
BOUNDARY PARALLEL FLOW THAT DEVELOPS AS CONVECTION SLIDES
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL TRAINING OF
STORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

CONVECTION WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.  BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...MODEL VARIANCE DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE...AS A
PROGRESSIVE MID-LVL PATTERN PERSISTS. THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS UPR TROUGHING
SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AGAIN...DEEP MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...SO POPS REMAIN ON THE LOWER END DUE TO ANTICIPATED
COVERAGE.

BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WE MAY BEGIN TO ESTABLISH A WARMER FLOW
REGIME...SUGGESTIVE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THIS REMAINS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...THOUGH MAY
STILL SEE SPOTTY MVFR VISIBILITY EAST OF I-29 THIS EVENING DUE TO
LINGERING SMOKE. WILL BE WATCHING FOR ISOLATED STORM THREAT WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN POSSIBLY LATE TONIGHT IN
AREAS WEST OF I-29...BUT EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE AND LIMITED
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT PRECLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS. STORM THREAT
MAY BEGIN IN FAR NORTHWEST AREAS AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...BUT MORE LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 05/00Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KABR 042315 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
615 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING WITH IT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
WEAK...SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND
FAR WESTERN SD. WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS REGION COULD SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW CAMS SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...OR WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVERLAP. THE
STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3K J/KG TO PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE
STORMS. THE LACK OF GOOD SHEAR AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER. THAT SAID...SPC DOES HAVE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA UNDER ENHANCED RISK...THUS WILL INTRODUCE T+ INTO
THE FORECAST. PWATS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...NEAR THREE STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OPENS. IN FACT...MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE
SUGGESTING READINGS IN THE 40S TUESDAY. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG
UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND POPS RETURN TO
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
THURSDAY MAY PROVE TO BE A DRY DAY...HOWEVER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK /POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND/...AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE THE SHORT TERM...BUT RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ENTER THE PICTURE
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK



000
FXUS63 KABR 042315 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
615 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING WITH IT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
WEAK...SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND
FAR WESTERN SD. WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS REGION COULD SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW CAMS SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...OR WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVERLAP. THE
STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3K J/KG TO PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE
STORMS. THE LACK OF GOOD SHEAR AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER. THAT SAID...SPC DOES HAVE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA UNDER ENHANCED RISK...THUS WILL INTRODUCE T+ INTO
THE FORECAST. PWATS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...NEAR THREE STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OPENS. IN FACT...MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE
SUGGESTING READINGS IN THE 40S TUESDAY. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG
UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND POPS RETURN TO
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
THURSDAY MAY PROVE TO BE A DRY DAY...HOWEVER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK /POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND/...AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE THE SHORT TERM...BUT RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ENTER THE PICTURE
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK



000
FXUS63 KABR 042315 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
615 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING WITH IT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
WEAK...SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND
FAR WESTERN SD. WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS REGION COULD SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW CAMS SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...OR WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVERLAP. THE
STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3K J/KG TO PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE
STORMS. THE LACK OF GOOD SHEAR AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER. THAT SAID...SPC DOES HAVE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA UNDER ENHANCED RISK...THUS WILL INTRODUCE T+ INTO
THE FORECAST. PWATS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...NEAR THREE STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OPENS. IN FACT...MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE
SUGGESTING READINGS IN THE 40S TUESDAY. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG
UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND POPS RETURN TO
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
THURSDAY MAY PROVE TO BE A DRY DAY...HOWEVER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK /POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND/...AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE THE SHORT TERM...BUT RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ENTER THE PICTURE
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK



000
FXUS63 KABR 042315 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
615 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING WITH IT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
WEAK...SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND
FAR WESTERN SD. WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS REGION COULD SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW CAMS SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...OR WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVERLAP. THE
STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3K J/KG TO PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE
STORMS. THE LACK OF GOOD SHEAR AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER. THAT SAID...SPC DOES HAVE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA UNDER ENHANCED RISK...THUS WILL INTRODUCE T+ INTO
THE FORECAST. PWATS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...NEAR THREE STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OPENS. IN FACT...MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE
SUGGESTING READINGS IN THE 40S TUESDAY. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG
UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND POPS RETURN TO
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
THURSDAY MAY PROVE TO BE A DRY DAY...HOWEVER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK /POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND/...AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE THE SHORT TERM...BUT RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ENTER THE PICTURE
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK



000
FXUS63 KABR 042315 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
615 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING WITH IT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
WEAK...SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND
FAR WESTERN SD. WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS REGION COULD SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW CAMS SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...OR WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVERLAP. THE
STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3K J/KG TO PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE
STORMS. THE LACK OF GOOD SHEAR AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER. THAT SAID...SPC DOES HAVE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA UNDER ENHANCED RISK...THUS WILL INTRODUCE T+ INTO
THE FORECAST. PWATS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...NEAR THREE STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OPENS. IN FACT...MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE
SUGGESTING READINGS IN THE 40S TUESDAY. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG
UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND POPS RETURN TO
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
THURSDAY MAY PROVE TO BE A DRY DAY...HOWEVER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK /POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND/...AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE THE SHORT TERM...BUT RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ENTER THE PICTURE
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK



000
FXUS63 KABR 042315 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
615 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING WITH IT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
WEAK...SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND
FAR WESTERN SD. WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS REGION COULD SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW CAMS SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...OR WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVERLAP. THE
STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3K J/KG TO PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE
STORMS. THE LACK OF GOOD SHEAR AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER. THAT SAID...SPC DOES HAVE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA UNDER ENHANCED RISK...THUS WILL INTRODUCE T+ INTO
THE FORECAST. PWATS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...NEAR THREE STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OPENS. IN FACT...MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE
SUGGESTING READINGS IN THE 40S TUESDAY. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG
UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND POPS RETURN TO
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
THURSDAY MAY PROVE TO BE A DRY DAY...HOWEVER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK /POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND/...AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE THE SHORT TERM...BUT RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ENTER THE PICTURE
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KUNR 042310
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
510 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 501 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING...MAINLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED
MOST LOCATIONS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SHRA
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE OVER NE WY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON...ESP OVER NE WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 042310
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
510 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 501 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING...MAINLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED
MOST LOCATIONS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SHRA
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE OVER NE WY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON...ESP OVER NE WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 042310
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
510 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 501 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING...MAINLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED
MOST LOCATIONS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SHRA
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE OVER NE WY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON...ESP OVER NE WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 042310
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
510 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 501 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING...MAINLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED
MOST LOCATIONS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SHRA
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE OVER NE WY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON...ESP OVER NE WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KABR 042025
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING WITH IT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
WEAK...SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND
FAR WESTERN SD. WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS REGION COULD SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW CAMS SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...OR WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVERLAP. THE
STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3K J/KG TO PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE
STORMS. THE LACK OF GOOD SHEAR AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER. THAT SAID...SPC DOES HAVE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA UNDER ENHANCED RISK...THUS WILL INTRODUCE T+ INTO
THE FORECAST. PWATS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...NEAR THREE STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OPENS. IN FACT...MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE
SUGGESTING READINGS IN THE 40S TUESDAY. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG
UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND POPS RETURN TO
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
THURSDAY MAY PROVE TO BE A DRY DAY...HOWEVER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK /POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND/...AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE THE SHORT TERM...BUT RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS AN
ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MAINLY BETWEEN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
THIS MAY AFFECT THE KPIR TAF SITE...BUT DUE TO THE EXPECTED LOW
AREAL COVERAGE...NO THUNDER MENTION IS INCLUDED WITH THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR



000
FXUS63 KABR 042025
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING WITH IT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
WEAK...SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND
FAR WESTERN SD. WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS REGION COULD SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW CAMS SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...OR WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVERLAP. THE
STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3K J/KG TO PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE
STORMS. THE LACK OF GOOD SHEAR AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER. THAT SAID...SPC DOES HAVE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA UNDER ENHANCED RISK...THUS WILL INTRODUCE T+ INTO
THE FORECAST. PWATS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...NEAR THREE STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OPENS. IN FACT...MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE
SUGGESTING READINGS IN THE 40S TUESDAY. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG
UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND POPS RETURN TO
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
THURSDAY MAY PROVE TO BE A DRY DAY...HOWEVER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK /POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND/...AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE THE SHORT TERM...BUT RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS AN
ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MAINLY BETWEEN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
THIS MAY AFFECT THE KPIR TAF SITE...BUT DUE TO THE EXPECTED LOW
AREAL COVERAGE...NO THUNDER MENTION IS INCLUDED WITH THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR




000
FXUS63 KUNR 042017
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
217 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE... ESPECIALLY
TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 042017
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
217 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE... ESPECIALLY
TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS63 KFSD 041948
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
248 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES APPEARS ON VISUAL IMAGERY TO BE GETTING
PUSHED EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE INCREASING FLOW AT LOW
AND MID LEVELS. IN ANY EVENT I WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE PUBLIC
GRIDS AS I DID EARLIER IN THE TAFS. AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE
IS STILL LOOKING WEAK FOR TONIGHT AND PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SEEMS NOT
SO MUCH DUE TO THE LACK OF HEATING IN THIS REALM OF NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION...BUT MORE FROM WEAKENING THERMAL SUPPORT FOR INITIATION
AND SUPPORT AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY INCREASES FROM THE WEST. WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE LOW AND MAINLY FAR WEST.

ONE THING THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEADY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL DO IS HOLD UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY DAYTIME LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT HOLDING NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...BEING RESTRICTED TO
LATE IN THE DAY IN THE CAPPED AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL
ALLOW THE CHANCE TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTHWEST LEADING UP TO WIDESPREAD STORMS AT NIGHT...BUT
MOST OF THE DAY EVEN NORTHWEST...AND ALL OF IT TO THE SOUTHEAST...
SHOULD BE DRY BREEZY AND PRETTY WARM WITH HEATING NOT RESTRICTED TOO
MUCH BY SOME CLOUD INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. HAVE RAISED
WIND SPEEDS A NOTCH OR TWO FURTHER INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY FROM
MODEL BLENDS GIVEN THE HEALTHIER WINDS NOT TOO FAR UP ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE UPPER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S
WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY REMAIN THE BIGGEST
CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS PATTERN PERSISTENCE CONTINUES IN
THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STOUT CAP HOLDING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR MOST AREAS. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO BLOSSOM
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE ND/SD/MN BORDERS BY 21Z...AS A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER NORTHERN ND/MN BEINGS TO SLIDE EAST. OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN SD...A SECOND SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL IGNITE A SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY THESE WAVES WILL BEGIN TO PHASE
TOGETHER...BRINGING STRONG UPR DIVERGENCE INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY
LEADING TO CONVECTING ZIPPING THROUGH CENTRAL SD ALONG THE FRONT
IN THE EVENING. THIS CONVECTION WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA...BUT SHOULD ENTER THE CWA BY 03Z. MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY...NEARLY 4K J/KG MLCAPE FROM NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
AND 3K J/KG FROM GFE...COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID- UPR LVL SHEAR
APPROACHING 30-40 KNOTS...WILL PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL RISK
ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE
VALUES ARE ALSO RATHER IMPRESSIVE...ALSO OWING TO A DAMAGING WIND
RISK. THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF STORMS MAY LEAD TO MORE OF A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS STORMS BEGIN TO COALESCE INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AND SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN SD AND MN AS THE LLJ
INCREASES. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT...AS
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANCIAL MUCAPE AND ONLY A MARGINALLY DECOUPLED
BOUNDARY LAYER.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES ON...THE RISK OF ELEVATED RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING INCREASES.  PWAT VALUES APPROACH 1.75 INCHES OR
HIGHER...WHICH BASED ON ABR CLIMATOLOGY...IS APPROACHING THE MAX
VALUES RECORDED FOR JULY 5TH. THE OTHER CONCERNING FACTOR IS THE
BOUNDARY PARALLEL FLOW THAT DEVELOPS AS CONVECTION SLIDES
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL TRAINING OF
STORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

CONVECTION WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.  BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...MODEL VARIANCE DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE...AS A
PROGRESSIVE MID-LVL PATTERN PERSISTS. THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS UPR TROUGHING
SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AGAIN...DEEP MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...SO POPS REMAIN ON THE LOWER END DUE TO ANTICIPATED
COVERAGE.

BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WE MAY BEGIN TO ESTABLISH A WARMER FLOW
REGIME...SUGGESTIVE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THIS REMAINS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH 05/18Z. THE EFFECT
OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES APPEARS TO BE LESSENING AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO SLOWLY WITH STRONGER FLOW AND BETTER MIXING...IN
ANY EVENT THIS SEEMS APPARENT ALREADY ON VISUAL IMAGERY. THEREFORE
AM NOT INCLUDING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN FORECASTS FOR SMOKE OR
LIGHT FOG WITH THE INCREASED FLOW DESPITE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA
05/00Z-08Z SEEM TOO SPARSE ON POTENTIAL COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN
FORECASTS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 041948
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
248 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES APPEARS ON VISUAL IMAGERY TO BE GETTING
PUSHED EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE INCREASING FLOW AT LOW
AND MID LEVELS. IN ANY EVENT I WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE PUBLIC
GRIDS AS I DID EARLIER IN THE TAFS. AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE
IS STILL LOOKING WEAK FOR TONIGHT AND PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SEEMS NOT
SO MUCH DUE TO THE LACK OF HEATING IN THIS REALM OF NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION...BUT MORE FROM WEAKENING THERMAL SUPPORT FOR INITIATION
AND SUPPORT AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY INCREASES FROM THE WEST. WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE LOW AND MAINLY FAR WEST.

ONE THING THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEADY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL DO IS HOLD UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY DAYTIME LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT HOLDING NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...BEING RESTRICTED TO
LATE IN THE DAY IN THE CAPPED AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL
ALLOW THE CHANCE TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTHWEST LEADING UP TO WIDESPREAD STORMS AT NIGHT...BUT
MOST OF THE DAY EVEN NORTHWEST...AND ALL OF IT TO THE SOUTHEAST...
SHOULD BE DRY BREEZY AND PRETTY WARM WITH HEATING NOT RESTRICTED TOO
MUCH BY SOME CLOUD INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. HAVE RAISED
WIND SPEEDS A NOTCH OR TWO FURTHER INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY FROM
MODEL BLENDS GIVEN THE HEALTHIER WINDS NOT TOO FAR UP ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE UPPER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S
WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY REMAIN THE BIGGEST
CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS PATTERN PERSISTENCE CONTINUES IN
THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STOUT CAP HOLDING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR MOST AREAS. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO BLOSSOM
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE ND/SD/MN BORDERS BY 21Z...AS A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER NORTHERN ND/MN BEINGS TO SLIDE EAST. OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN SD...A SECOND SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL IGNITE A SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY THESE WAVES WILL BEGIN TO PHASE
TOGETHER...BRINGING STRONG UPR DIVERGENCE INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY
LEADING TO CONVECTING ZIPPING THROUGH CENTRAL SD ALONG THE FRONT
IN THE EVENING. THIS CONVECTION WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA...BUT SHOULD ENTER THE CWA BY 03Z. MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY...NEARLY 4K J/KG MLCAPE FROM NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
AND 3K J/KG FROM GFE...COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID- UPR LVL SHEAR
APPROACHING 30-40 KNOTS...WILL PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL RISK
ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE
VALUES ARE ALSO RATHER IMPRESSIVE...ALSO OWING TO A DAMAGING WIND
RISK. THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF STORMS MAY LEAD TO MORE OF A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS STORMS BEGIN TO COALESCE INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AND SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN SD AND MN AS THE LLJ
INCREASES. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT...AS
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANCIAL MUCAPE AND ONLY A MARGINALLY DECOUPLED
BOUNDARY LAYER.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES ON...THE RISK OF ELEVATED RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING INCREASES.  PWAT VALUES APPROACH 1.75 INCHES OR
HIGHER...WHICH BASED ON ABR CLIMATOLOGY...IS APPROACHING THE MAX
VALUES RECORDED FOR JULY 5TH. THE OTHER CONCERNING FACTOR IS THE
BOUNDARY PARALLEL FLOW THAT DEVELOPS AS CONVECTION SLIDES
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL TRAINING OF
STORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

CONVECTION WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.  BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...MODEL VARIANCE DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE...AS A
PROGRESSIVE MID-LVL PATTERN PERSISTS. THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS UPR TROUGHING
SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AGAIN...DEEP MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...SO POPS REMAIN ON THE LOWER END DUE TO ANTICIPATED
COVERAGE.

BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WE MAY BEGIN TO ESTABLISH A WARMER FLOW
REGIME...SUGGESTIVE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THIS REMAINS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH 05/18Z. THE EFFECT
OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES APPEARS TO BE LESSENING AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO SLOWLY WITH STRONGER FLOW AND BETTER MIXING...IN
ANY EVENT THIS SEEMS APPARENT ALREADY ON VISUAL IMAGERY. THEREFORE
AM NOT INCLUDING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN FORECASTS FOR SMOKE OR
LIGHT FOG WITH THE INCREASED FLOW DESPITE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA
05/00Z-08Z SEEM TOO SPARSE ON POTENTIAL COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN
FORECASTS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KUNR 041736
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT COULD
DRIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
BIGHORNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FIRING STORMS IN THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ERODE NEARLY ALL OF
THE CIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...WILL STILL KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 21Z TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041736
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT COULD
DRIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
BIGHORNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FIRING STORMS IN THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ERODE NEARLY ALL OF
THE CIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...WILL STILL KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 21Z TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041736
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT COULD
DRIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
BIGHORNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FIRING STORMS IN THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ERODE NEARLY ALL OF
THE CIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...WILL STILL KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 21Z TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041736
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT COULD
DRIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
BIGHORNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FIRING STORMS IN THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ERODE NEARLY ALL OF
THE CIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...WILL STILL KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 21Z TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041736
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT COULD
DRIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
BIGHORNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FIRING STORMS IN THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ERODE NEARLY ALL OF
THE CIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...WILL STILL KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 21Z TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041736
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT COULD
DRIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
BIGHORNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FIRING STORMS IN THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ERODE NEARLY ALL OF
THE CIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...WILL STILL KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 21Z TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS63 KFSD 041732
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1232 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST MIXING AND
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 80S AND MAY APPROACH 90 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WITH THE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS...SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN FIRES SHOULD
HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT AT THE SURFACE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING IN THE HIGH
PLAINS...WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS POP BY MID AFTERNOON IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MUCAPE VALUES
REACHES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40 KT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL...WHILE THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST A
SEVERE WIND THREAT AS WELL. MOST RECENT CAMS DO PAINT SCATTERED
STORMS WITH UPDRAFTS BY AROUND 21Z IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY DOES NOT SHOW MUCH
EASTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS STORMS
WEST OF I29 IN OUR REGION...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL WEAKEN LATE
EVENING AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY IN A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IT WILL FEEL FAIRLY UNPLEASANT. THINK THAT
MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY IN A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE...THEN WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN OUR NORTH AND WEST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES EASTWARD AND A SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO THE REGION. WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. THE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING
SUIT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT TRANSITIONING TO STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN
AS THE STORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 70...WHILE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S IN OUR FAR
WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN OUR EAST ON MONDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA AND
HIGHS MID AND UPPER 70S. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN MID AND
UPPER 70S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER IN A LESS
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID WEEK...THERE WILL BE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE LOW END POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...NO SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH 05/18Z. THE EFFECT
OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES APPEARS TO BE LESSENING AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO SLOWLY WITH STRONGER FLOW AND BETTER MIXING...IN
ANY EVENT THIS SEEMS APPARENT ALREADY ON VISUAL IMAGERY. THEREFORE
AM NOT INCLUDING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN FORECASTS FOR SMOKE OR
LIGHT FOG WITH THE INCREASED FLOW DESPITE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA
05/00Z-08Z SEEM TOO SPARSE ON POTENTIAL COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN
FORECASTS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 041732
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1232 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST MIXING AND
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 80S AND MAY APPROACH 90 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WITH THE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS...SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN FIRES SHOULD
HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT AT THE SURFACE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING IN THE HIGH
PLAINS...WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS POP BY MID AFTERNOON IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MUCAPE VALUES
REACHES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40 KT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL...WHILE THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST A
SEVERE WIND THREAT AS WELL. MOST RECENT CAMS DO PAINT SCATTERED
STORMS WITH UPDRAFTS BY AROUND 21Z IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY DOES NOT SHOW MUCH
EASTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS STORMS
WEST OF I29 IN OUR REGION...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL WEAKEN LATE
EVENING AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY IN A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IT WILL FEEL FAIRLY UNPLEASANT. THINK THAT
MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY IN A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE...THEN WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN OUR NORTH AND WEST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES EASTWARD AND A SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO THE REGION. WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. THE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING
SUIT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT TRANSITIONING TO STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN
AS THE STORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 70...WHILE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S IN OUR FAR
WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN OUR EAST ON MONDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA AND
HIGHS MID AND UPPER 70S. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN MID AND
UPPER 70S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER IN A LESS
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID WEEK...THERE WILL BE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE LOW END POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...NO SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH 05/18Z. THE EFFECT
OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES APPEARS TO BE LESSENING AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO SLOWLY WITH STRONGER FLOW AND BETTER MIXING...IN
ANY EVENT THIS SEEMS APPARENT ALREADY ON VISUAL IMAGERY. THEREFORE
AM NOT INCLUDING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN FORECASTS FOR SMOKE OR
LIGHT FOG WITH THE INCREASED FLOW DESPITE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA
05/00Z-08Z SEEM TOO SPARSE ON POTENTIAL COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN
FORECASTS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KABR 041722 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1222 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
DELAY POPS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT BEST. VARIOUS HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP BY 21Z AT THE EARLIEST.
OTHERS HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z. THAT SAID...THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS WITH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SEEING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THUS WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK WAVE IS DRIFTING TOWARDS THE CWA TODAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE WESTERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION MOVE
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DESPITE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND OUR
PERSISTENT HAZE...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO BREAK THE
CAP. MLCAPE VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG CAPE...WITH NAM VALUES
CLOSER TO 4K ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S. DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2K J/KG...WITH BASES
AROUND 8KFT. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. EVEN IF WE FAIL TO ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP GENERATE SOME
ACCAS SHOWERS/THUNDER. CAMS SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION BY DEPICTING THE
GENERATION OF A FEW CELLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
TO HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS THE WAVE IS TOO FAR
UPSTREAM...THOUGH A FEW ELEVATED ACCAS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER. THE CAP LOOKS VERY STRONG IN
SOUNDINGS...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES DO BEGIN TO COOL AROUND 00-
03Z...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND COOLER TEMPS
KEEPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAYTIME DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WITH THE LLJ CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AND SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ON WED. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE WED AND THU SO STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND FOR POPS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN
THE 70S THEN CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS AN
ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MAINLY BETWEEN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
THIS MAY AFFECT THE KPIR TAF SITE...BUT DUE TO THE EXPECTED LOW
AREAL COVERAGE...NO THUNDER MENTION IS INCLUDED WITH THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SERR




000
FXUS63 KABR 041722 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1222 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
DELAY POPS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT BEST. VARIOUS HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP BY 21Z AT THE EARLIEST.
OTHERS HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z. THAT SAID...THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS WITH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SEEING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THUS WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK WAVE IS DRIFTING TOWARDS THE CWA TODAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE WESTERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION MOVE
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DESPITE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND OUR
PERSISTENT HAZE...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO BREAK THE
CAP. MLCAPE VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG CAPE...WITH NAM VALUES
CLOSER TO 4K ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S. DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2K J/KG...WITH BASES
AROUND 8KFT. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. EVEN IF WE FAIL TO ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP GENERATE SOME
ACCAS SHOWERS/THUNDER. CAMS SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION BY DEPICTING THE
GENERATION OF A FEW CELLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
TO HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS THE WAVE IS TOO FAR
UPSTREAM...THOUGH A FEW ELEVATED ACCAS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER. THE CAP LOOKS VERY STRONG IN
SOUNDINGS...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES DO BEGIN TO COOL AROUND 00-
03Z...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND COOLER TEMPS
KEEPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAYTIME DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WITH THE LLJ CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AND SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ON WED. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE WED AND THU SO STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND FOR POPS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN
THE 70S THEN CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS AN
ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MAINLY BETWEEN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
THIS MAY AFFECT THE KPIR TAF SITE...BUT DUE TO THE EXPECTED LOW
AREAL COVERAGE...NO THUNDER MENTION IS INCLUDED WITH THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SERR



000
FXUS63 KABR 041722 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1222 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
DELAY POPS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT BEST. VARIOUS HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP BY 21Z AT THE EARLIEST.
OTHERS HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z. THAT SAID...THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS WITH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SEEING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THUS WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK WAVE IS DRIFTING TOWARDS THE CWA TODAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE WESTERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION MOVE
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DESPITE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND OUR
PERSISTENT HAZE...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO BREAK THE
CAP. MLCAPE VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG CAPE...WITH NAM VALUES
CLOSER TO 4K ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S. DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2K J/KG...WITH BASES
AROUND 8KFT. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. EVEN IF WE FAIL TO ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP GENERATE SOME
ACCAS SHOWERS/THUNDER. CAMS SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION BY DEPICTING THE
GENERATION OF A FEW CELLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
TO HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS THE WAVE IS TOO FAR
UPSTREAM...THOUGH A FEW ELEVATED ACCAS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER. THE CAP LOOKS VERY STRONG IN
SOUNDINGS...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES DO BEGIN TO COOL AROUND 00-
03Z...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND COOLER TEMPS
KEEPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAYTIME DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WITH THE LLJ CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AND SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ON WED. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE WED AND THU SO STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND FOR POPS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN
THE 70S THEN CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS AN
ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MAINLY BETWEEN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
THIS MAY AFFECT THE KPIR TAF SITE...BUT DUE TO THE EXPECTED LOW
AREAL COVERAGE...NO THUNDER MENTION IS INCLUDED WITH THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SERR




000
FXUS63 KABR 041722 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1222 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
DELAY POPS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT BEST. VARIOUS HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP BY 21Z AT THE EARLIEST.
OTHERS HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z. THAT SAID...THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS WITH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SEEING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THUS WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK WAVE IS DRIFTING TOWARDS THE CWA TODAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE WESTERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION MOVE
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DESPITE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND OUR
PERSISTENT HAZE...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO BREAK THE
CAP. MLCAPE VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG CAPE...WITH NAM VALUES
CLOSER TO 4K ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S. DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2K J/KG...WITH BASES
AROUND 8KFT. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. EVEN IF WE FAIL TO ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP GENERATE SOME
ACCAS SHOWERS/THUNDER. CAMS SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION BY DEPICTING THE
GENERATION OF A FEW CELLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
TO HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS THE WAVE IS TOO FAR
UPSTREAM...THOUGH A FEW ELEVATED ACCAS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER. THE CAP LOOKS VERY STRONG IN
SOUNDINGS...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES DO BEGIN TO COOL AROUND 00-
03Z...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND COOLER TEMPS
KEEPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAYTIME DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WITH THE LLJ CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AND SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ON WED. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE WED AND THU SO STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND FOR POPS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN
THE 70S THEN CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS AN
ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MAINLY BETWEEN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
THIS MAY AFFECT THE KPIR TAF SITE...BUT DUE TO THE EXPECTED LOW
AREAL COVERAGE...NO THUNDER MENTION IS INCLUDED WITH THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SERR



000
FXUS63 KUNR 041707
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1107 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT COULD
DRIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
BIGHORNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FIRING STORMS IN THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ERODE NEARLY ALL OF
THE CIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...WILL STILL KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 21Z TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 041707
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1107 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT COULD
DRIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
BIGHORNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FIRING STORMS IN THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ERODE NEARLY ALL OF
THE CIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...WILL STILL KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 21Z TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KABR 041545 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1045 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
DELAY POPS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT BEST. VARIOUS HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP BY 21Z AT THE EARLIEST.
OTHERS HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z. THAT SAID...THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS WITH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SEEING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THUS WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK WAVE IS DRIFTING TOWARDS THE CWA TODAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE WESTERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION MOVE
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DESPITE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND OUR
PERSISTENT HAZE...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO BREAK THE
CAP. MLCAPE VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG CAPE...WITH NAM VALUES
CLOSER TO 4K ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S. DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2K J/KG...WITH BASES
AROUND 8KFT. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. EVEN IF WE FAIL TO ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP GENERATE SOME
ACCAS SHOWERS/THUNDER. CAMS SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION BY DEPICTING THE
GENERATION OF A FEW CELLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
TO HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS THE WAVE IS TOO FAR
UPSTREAM...THOUGH A FEW ELEVATED ACCAS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER. THE CAP LOOKS VERY STRONG IN
SOUNDINGS...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES DO BEGIN TO COOL AROUND 00-
03Z...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND COOLER TEMPS
KEEPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAYTIME DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WITH THE LLJ CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AND SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ON WED. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE WED AND THU SO STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND FOR POPS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN
THE 70S THEN CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE IS HAMPERING VISIBILITY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ALL
BUT KPIR ARE DOWN TO MVFR OR IFR. WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
HELP SCOUR OUT THE WORST OF THE SMOKE AND VSBY IS FORECAST TO RISE
TO VFR.

STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY NEAR KPIR. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER THERE IS NO
MODEL CONSISTENCY AMONG THE HI-RES MODELS AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR FORMATION. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
HAVE NOT MENTIONED VCTS IN THE TAFS YET.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041206
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
606 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041206
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
606 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041206
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
606 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041206
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
606 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041206
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
606 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 041206
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
606 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 041206
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
606 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 041206
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
606 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KABR 041144 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
644 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK WAVE IS DRIFTING TOWARDS THE CWA TODAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE WESTERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION MOVE
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DESPITE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND OUR
PERSISTENT HAZE...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO BREAK THE
CAP. MLCAPE VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG CAPE...WITH NAM VALUES
CLOSER TO 4K ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S. DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2K J/KG...WITH BASES
AROUND 8KFT. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. EVEN IF WE FAIL TO ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP GENERATE SOME
ACCAS SHOWERS/THUNDER. CAMS SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION BY DEPICTING THE
GENERATION OF A FEW CELLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
TO HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS THE WAVE IS TOO FAR
UPSTREAM...THOUGH A FEW ELEVATED ACCAS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER. THE CAP LOOKS VERY STRONG IN
SOUNDINGS...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES DO BEGIN TO COOL AROUND 00-
03Z...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND COOLER TEMPS
KEEPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAYTIME DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WITH THE LLJ CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AND SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ON WED. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE WED AND THU SO STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND FOR POPS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN
THE 70S THEN CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE IS HAMPERING VISIBILITY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ALL
BUT KPIR ARE DOWN TO MVFR OR IFR. WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
HELP SCOUR OUT THE WORST OF THE SMOKE AND VSBY IS FORECAST TO RISE
TO VFR.

STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY NEAR KPIR. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER THERE IS NO
MODEL CONSISTENCY AMONG THE HI-RES MODELS AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR FORMATION. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
HAVE NOT MENTIONED VCTS IN THE TAFS YET.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE



000
FXUS63 KABR 041144 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
644 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK WAVE IS DRIFTING TOWARDS THE CWA TODAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE WESTERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION MOVE
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DESPITE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND OUR
PERSISTENT HAZE...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO BREAK THE
CAP. MLCAPE VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG CAPE...WITH NAM VALUES
CLOSER TO 4K ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S. DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2K J/KG...WITH BASES
AROUND 8KFT. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. EVEN IF WE FAIL TO ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP GENERATE SOME
ACCAS SHOWERS/THUNDER. CAMS SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION BY DEPICTING THE
GENERATION OF A FEW CELLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
TO HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS THE WAVE IS TOO FAR
UPSTREAM...THOUGH A FEW ELEVATED ACCAS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER. THE CAP LOOKS VERY STRONG IN
SOUNDINGS...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES DO BEGIN TO COOL AROUND 00-
03Z...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND COOLER TEMPS
KEEPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAYTIME DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WITH THE LLJ CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AND SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ON WED. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE WED AND THU SO STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND FOR POPS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN
THE 70S THEN CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE IS HAMPERING VISIBILITY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ALL
BUT KPIR ARE DOWN TO MVFR OR IFR. WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
HELP SCOUR OUT THE WORST OF THE SMOKE AND VSBY IS FORECAST TO RISE
TO VFR.

STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY NEAR KPIR. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER THERE IS NO
MODEL CONSISTENCY AMONG THE HI-RES MODELS AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR FORMATION. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
HAVE NOT MENTIONED VCTS IN THE TAFS YET.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KFSD 041130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST MIXING AND
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 80S AND MAY APPROACH 90 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WITH THE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS...SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN FIRES SHOULD
HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT AT THE SURFACE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING IN THE HIGH
PLAINS...WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS POP BY MID AFTERNOON IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MUCAPE VALUES
REACHES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40 KT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL...WHILE THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST A
SEVERE WIND THREAT AS WELL. MOST RECENT CAMS DO PAINT SCATTERED
STORMS WITH UPDRAFTS BY AROUND 21Z IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY DOES NOT SHOW MUCH
EASTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS STORMS
WEST OF I29 IN OUR REGION...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL WEAKEN LATE
EVENING AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY IN A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IT WILL FEEL FAIRLY UNPLEASANT. THINK THAT
MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY IN A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE...THEN WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN OUR NORTH AND WEST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES EASTWARD AND A SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO THE REGION. WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. THE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING
SUIT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT TRANSITIONING TO STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN
AS THE STORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 70...WHILE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S IN OUR FAR
WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN OUR EAST ON MONDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA AND
HIGHS MID AND UPPER 70S. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN MID AND
UPPER 70S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER IN A LESS
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID WEEK...THERE WILL BE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE LOW END POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...NO SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES CONTINUES TO CAUSE SOME VISIBILITY
REDUCTION AROUND 5 TO 8 SM THROUGHOUT THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS COMBINED TO FURTHER REDUCE VISIBILITY IN PATCHY
FOG. EXPECT THESE MVFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN IMPROVING TO VFR
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALONG WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
DEVELOPING LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AROUND 3000 TO 4000
FEET...WITH SCATTERED STORMS BECOMING POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD AFTER 21Z THROUGH 06Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE TOO SPARSE IN
COVERAGE TO MENTION IN THE KHON TAF AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 041130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST MIXING AND
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 80S AND MAY APPROACH 90 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WITH THE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS...SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN FIRES SHOULD
HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT AT THE SURFACE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING IN THE HIGH
PLAINS...WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS POP BY MID AFTERNOON IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MUCAPE VALUES
REACHES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40 KT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL...WHILE THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST A
SEVERE WIND THREAT AS WELL. MOST RECENT CAMS DO PAINT SCATTERED
STORMS WITH UPDRAFTS BY AROUND 21Z IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY DOES NOT SHOW MUCH
EASTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS STORMS
WEST OF I29 IN OUR REGION...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL WEAKEN LATE
EVENING AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY IN A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IT WILL FEEL FAIRLY UNPLEASANT. THINK THAT
MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY IN A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE...THEN WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN OUR NORTH AND WEST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES EASTWARD AND A SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO THE REGION. WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. THE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING
SUIT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT TRANSITIONING TO STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN
AS THE STORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 70...WHILE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S IN OUR FAR
WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN OUR EAST ON MONDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA AND
HIGHS MID AND UPPER 70S. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN MID AND
UPPER 70S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER IN A LESS
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID WEEK...THERE WILL BE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE LOW END POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...NO SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES CONTINUES TO CAUSE SOME VISIBILITY
REDUCTION AROUND 5 TO 8 SM THROUGHOUT THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS COMBINED TO FURTHER REDUCE VISIBILITY IN PATCHY
FOG. EXPECT THESE MVFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN IMPROVING TO VFR
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALONG WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
DEVELOPING LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AROUND 3000 TO 4000
FEET...WITH SCATTERED STORMS BECOMING POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD AFTER 21Z THROUGH 06Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE TOO SPARSE IN
COVERAGE TO MENTION IN THE KHON TAF AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 041130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST MIXING AND
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 80S AND MAY APPROACH 90 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WITH THE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS...SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN FIRES SHOULD
HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT AT THE SURFACE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING IN THE HIGH
PLAINS...WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS POP BY MID AFTERNOON IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MUCAPE VALUES
REACHES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40 KT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL...WHILE THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST A
SEVERE WIND THREAT AS WELL. MOST RECENT CAMS DO PAINT SCATTERED
STORMS WITH UPDRAFTS BY AROUND 21Z IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY DOES NOT SHOW MUCH
EASTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS STORMS
WEST OF I29 IN OUR REGION...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL WEAKEN LATE
EVENING AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY IN A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IT WILL FEEL FAIRLY UNPLEASANT. THINK THAT
MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY IN A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE...THEN WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN OUR NORTH AND WEST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES EASTWARD AND A SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO THE REGION. WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. THE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING
SUIT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT TRANSITIONING TO STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN
AS THE STORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 70...WHILE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S IN OUR FAR
WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN OUR EAST ON MONDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA AND
HIGHS MID AND UPPER 70S. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN MID AND
UPPER 70S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER IN A LESS
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID WEEK...THERE WILL BE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE LOW END POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...NO SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES CONTINUES TO CAUSE SOME VISIBILITY
REDUCTION AROUND 5 TO 8 SM THROUGHOUT THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS COMBINED TO FURTHER REDUCE VISIBILITY IN PATCHY
FOG. EXPECT THESE MVFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN IMPROVING TO VFR
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALONG WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
DEVELOPING LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AROUND 3000 TO 4000
FEET...WITH SCATTERED STORMS BECOMING POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD AFTER 21Z THROUGH 06Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE TOO SPARSE IN
COVERAGE TO MENTION IN THE KHON TAF AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 041130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST MIXING AND
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 80S AND MAY APPROACH 90 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WITH THE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS...SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN FIRES SHOULD
HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT AT THE SURFACE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING IN THE HIGH
PLAINS...WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS POP BY MID AFTERNOON IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MUCAPE VALUES
REACHES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40 KT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL...WHILE THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST A
SEVERE WIND THREAT AS WELL. MOST RECENT CAMS DO PAINT SCATTERED
STORMS WITH UPDRAFTS BY AROUND 21Z IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY DOES NOT SHOW MUCH
EASTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS STORMS
WEST OF I29 IN OUR REGION...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL WEAKEN LATE
EVENING AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY IN A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IT WILL FEEL FAIRLY UNPLEASANT. THINK THAT
MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY IN A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE...THEN WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN OUR NORTH AND WEST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES EASTWARD AND A SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO THE REGION. WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. THE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING
SUIT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT TRANSITIONING TO STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN
AS THE STORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 70...WHILE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S IN OUR FAR
WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN OUR EAST ON MONDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA AND
HIGHS MID AND UPPER 70S. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN MID AND
UPPER 70S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER IN A LESS
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID WEEK...THERE WILL BE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE LOW END POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...NO SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES CONTINUES TO CAUSE SOME VISIBILITY
REDUCTION AROUND 5 TO 8 SM THROUGHOUT THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS COMBINED TO FURTHER REDUCE VISIBILITY IN PATCHY
FOG. EXPECT THESE MVFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN IMPROVING TO VFR
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALONG WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
DEVELOPING LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AROUND 3000 TO 4000
FEET...WITH SCATTERED STORMS BECOMING POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD AFTER 21Z THROUGH 06Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE TOO SPARSE IN
COVERAGE TO MENTION IN THE KHON TAF AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 040843
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
343 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST MIXING AND
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 80S AND MAY APPROACH 90 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WITH THE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS...SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN FIRES SHOULD
HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT AT THE SURFACE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING IN THE HIGH
PLAINS...WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS POP BY MID AFTERNOON IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MUCAPE VALUES
REACHES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40 KT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL...WHILE THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST A
SEVERE WIND THREAT AS WELL. MOST RECENT CAMS DO PAINT SCATTERED
STORMS WITH UPDRAFTS BY AROUND 21Z IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY DOES NOT SHOW MUCH
EASTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS STORMS
WEST OF I29 IN OUR REGION...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL WEAKEN LATE
EVENING AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY IN A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IT WILL FEEL FAIRLY UNPLEASANT. THINK THAT
MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY IN A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE...THEN WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN OUR NORTH AND WEST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES EASTWARD AND A SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO THE REGION. WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. THE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING
SUIT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT TRANSITIONING TO STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN
AS THE STORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 70...WHILE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S IN OUR FAR
WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN OUR EAST ON MONDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA AND
HIGHS MID AND UPPER 70S. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN MID AND
UPPER 70S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER IN A LESS
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID WEEK...THERE WILL BE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE LOW END POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...NO SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND VERY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS
OF MVFR VISIBILITY AS SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES SEEPS TO THE
SURFACE...BUT TIMING FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN. WILL HOLD ON TO
A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE AT KHON THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING UNTIL SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP DISPERSE
THE SMOKE PARTICLES AND BRING SOME IMPROVEMENT. UNCERTAINTY IS TOO
HIGH TO BRING VISIBILITY BELOW VFR AT KFSD/KSUX BUT WILL CERTAINLY
MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND IF NEEDED.

KEEPING TAFS PRECIP-FREE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THOUGH ISOLATED
STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 040843
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
343 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST MIXING AND
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 80S AND MAY APPROACH 90 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WITH THE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS...SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN FIRES SHOULD
HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT AT THE SURFACE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING IN THE HIGH
PLAINS...WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS POP BY MID AFTERNOON IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MUCAPE VALUES
REACHES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40 KT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL...WHILE THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST A
SEVERE WIND THREAT AS WELL. MOST RECENT CAMS DO PAINT SCATTERED
STORMS WITH UPDRAFTS BY AROUND 21Z IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY DOES NOT SHOW MUCH
EASTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS STORMS
WEST OF I29 IN OUR REGION...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL WEAKEN LATE
EVENING AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY IN A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IT WILL FEEL FAIRLY UNPLEASANT. THINK THAT
MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY IN A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE...THEN WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN OUR NORTH AND WEST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES EASTWARD AND A SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO THE REGION. WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. THE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING
SUIT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT TRANSITIONING TO STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN
AS THE STORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 70...WHILE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S IN OUR FAR
WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN OUR EAST ON MONDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA AND
HIGHS MID AND UPPER 70S. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN MID AND
UPPER 70S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER IN A LESS
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID WEEK...THERE WILL BE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE LOW END POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...NO SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND VERY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS
OF MVFR VISIBILITY AS SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES SEEPS TO THE
SURFACE...BUT TIMING FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN. WILL HOLD ON TO
A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE AT KHON THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING UNTIL SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP DISPERSE
THE SMOKE PARTICLES AND BRING SOME IMPROVEMENT. UNCERTAINTY IS TOO
HIGH TO BRING VISIBILITY BELOW VFR AT KFSD/KSUX BUT WILL CERTAINLY
MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND IF NEEDED.

KEEPING TAFS PRECIP-FREE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THOUGH ISOLATED
STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KABR 040838
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK WAVE IS DRIFTING TOWARDS THE CWA TODAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE WESTERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION MOVE
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DESPITE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND OUR
PERSISTENT HAZE...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO BREAK THE
CAP. MLCAPE VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG CAPE...WITH NAM VALUES
CLOSER TO 4K ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S. DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2K J/KG...WITH BASES
AROUND 8KFT. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. EVEN IF WE FAIL TO ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP GENERATE SOME
ACCAS SHOWERS/THUNDER. CAMS SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION BY DEPICTING THE
GENERATION OF A FEW CELLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
TO HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS THE WAVE IS TOO FAR
UPSTREAM...THOUGH A FEW ELEVATED ACCAS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER. THE CAP LOOKS VERY STRONG IN
SOUNDINGS...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES DO BEGIN TO COOL AROUND 00-
03Z...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND COOLER TEMPS
KEEPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAYTIME DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WITH THE LLJ CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AND SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ON WED. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE WED AND THU SO STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND FOR POPS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN
THE 70S THEN CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE BEING CARRIED DOWN FROM FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...THE SMOKE LAYER SHOULD RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO
BRING VFR VSBYS BACK TO THE REGION. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 040838
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK WAVE IS DRIFTING TOWARDS THE CWA TODAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE WESTERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION MOVE
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DESPITE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND OUR
PERSISTENT HAZE...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO BREAK THE
CAP. MLCAPE VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG CAPE...WITH NAM VALUES
CLOSER TO 4K ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S. DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2K J/KG...WITH BASES
AROUND 8KFT. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. EVEN IF WE FAIL TO ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP GENERATE SOME
ACCAS SHOWERS/THUNDER. CAMS SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION BY DEPICTING THE
GENERATION OF A FEW CELLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
TO HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS THE WAVE IS TOO FAR
UPSTREAM...THOUGH A FEW ELEVATED ACCAS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER. THE CAP LOOKS VERY STRONG IN
SOUNDINGS...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES DO BEGIN TO COOL AROUND 00-
03Z...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND COOLER TEMPS
KEEPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAYTIME DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WITH THE LLJ CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AND SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ON WED. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE WED AND THU SO STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND FOR POPS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN
THE 70S THEN CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE BEING CARRIED DOWN FROM FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...THE SMOKE LAYER SHOULD RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO
BRING VFR VSBYS BACK TO THE REGION. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 040838
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK WAVE IS DRIFTING TOWARDS THE CWA TODAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE WESTERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION MOVE
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DESPITE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND OUR
PERSISTENT HAZE...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO BREAK THE
CAP. MLCAPE VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG CAPE...WITH NAM VALUES
CLOSER TO 4K ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S. DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2K J/KG...WITH BASES
AROUND 8KFT. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. EVEN IF WE FAIL TO ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP GENERATE SOME
ACCAS SHOWERS/THUNDER. CAMS SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION BY DEPICTING THE
GENERATION OF A FEW CELLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
TO HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS THE WAVE IS TOO FAR
UPSTREAM...THOUGH A FEW ELEVATED ACCAS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER. THE CAP LOOKS VERY STRONG IN
SOUNDINGS...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES DO BEGIN TO COOL AROUND 00-
03Z...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND COOLER TEMPS
KEEPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAYTIME DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WITH THE LLJ CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AND SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ON WED. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE WED AND THU SO STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND FOR POPS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN
THE 70S THEN CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE BEING CARRIED DOWN FROM FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...THE SMOKE LAYER SHOULD RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO
BRING VFR VSBYS BACK TO THE REGION. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 040838
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK WAVE IS DRIFTING TOWARDS THE CWA TODAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE WESTERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION MOVE
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DESPITE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND OUR
PERSISTENT HAZE...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO BREAK THE
CAP. MLCAPE VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG CAPE...WITH NAM VALUES
CLOSER TO 4K ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S. DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2K J/KG...WITH BASES
AROUND 8KFT. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. EVEN IF WE FAIL TO ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP GENERATE SOME
ACCAS SHOWERS/THUNDER. CAMS SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION BY DEPICTING THE
GENERATION OF A FEW CELLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
TO HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS THE WAVE IS TOO FAR
UPSTREAM...THOUGH A FEW ELEVATED ACCAS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER. THE CAP LOOKS VERY STRONG IN
SOUNDINGS...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES DO BEGIN TO COOL AROUND 00-
03Z...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND COOLER TEMPS
KEEPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAYTIME DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WITH THE LLJ CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AND SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ON WED. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE WED AND THU SO STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND FOR POPS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN
THE 70S THEN CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE BEING CARRIED DOWN FROM FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...THE SMOKE LAYER SHOULD RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO
BRING VFR VSBYS BACK TO THE REGION. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 040826
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
226 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 040826
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
226 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 040826
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
226 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KABR 040524 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA AT THIS
TIME...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SMOKE STILL STREAMING OVER THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH FIRES IN CANADA. DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...VISIBILITIES ARE BEING REDUCED AS LOW AS 2SM DUE TO
THE SMOKE. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY.  FOR TNT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT...AND THE LLJ
SHOULD FOCUS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  THAT LLJ SHIFTS
EAST ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1K J/KG BY AFTERNOON...AND H85
DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN +10C.  HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL.
NONETHELESS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.  OVERNIGHT LLJ GETS STRONGER WITH AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OUT A HEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
EML. THAT EML WILL PROBABLY HOLD MOST OF THE STORMS AT BAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.  BY THAT TIME A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BREAK
ANY CAP THAT MAY EXIST.  HOWEVER THERE IS ON CAVEAT.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MARGINAL A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  SO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES..IT WILL BE WARM AND STICKY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME RELIEF LATE DAY ON SUNDAY IN WEST...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. SFC HIGH THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. BY
MIDWEEK...WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS SO BASICALLY RAN WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE BEING CARRIED DOWN FROM FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...THE SMOKE LAYER SHOULD RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO
BRING VFR VSBYS BACK TO THE REGION. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...WISE



000
FXUS63 KABR 040524 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA AT THIS
TIME...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SMOKE STILL STREAMING OVER THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH FIRES IN CANADA. DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...VISIBILITIES ARE BEING REDUCED AS LOW AS 2SM DUE TO
THE SMOKE. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY.  FOR TNT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT...AND THE LLJ
SHOULD FOCUS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  THAT LLJ SHIFTS
EAST ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1K J/KG BY AFTERNOON...AND H85
DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN +10C.  HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL.
NONETHELESS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.  OVERNIGHT LLJ GETS STRONGER WITH AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OUT A HEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
EML. THAT EML WILL PROBABLY HOLD MOST OF THE STORMS AT BAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.  BY THAT TIME A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BREAK
ANY CAP THAT MAY EXIST.  HOWEVER THERE IS ON CAVEAT.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MARGINAL A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  SO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES..IT WILL BE WARM AND STICKY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME RELIEF LATE DAY ON SUNDAY IN WEST...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. SFC HIGH THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. BY
MIDWEEK...WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS SO BASICALLY RAN WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE BEING CARRIED DOWN FROM FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...THE SMOKE LAYER SHOULD RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO
BRING VFR VSBYS BACK TO THE REGION. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 040508
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 040508
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 040508
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 040508
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 040508
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 040508
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 040508
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 040508
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KFSD 040405
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1105 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXPANDING MENTION OF PATCHY SMOKE TO COVER THE CWA FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. WHILE VISIBILITY IS NOT AS LOW AS AREAS TO OUR NORTH...WE
ARE BEGINNING TO SEE HINTS OF VISIBILITY DROPPING OFF THROUGHOUT
THE AREA. DO NOT HAVE A REALLY GOOD HANDLE ON WHEN THE SMOKE WILL
DISPERSE TO ALLOW FOR IMPROVING VISIBILITY...BUT THINK INCREASE
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY SHOULD HELP. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LEADING TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AROUND THE REGION.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD DYING AWAY TOWARDS SUNSET.  SATELLITE
INDICATING THERE IS A BIT OF SMOKE LEAKING INTO WEST AND NORTH
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES EAST...COULD BE DIFFICULT FOR
SMOKE TO ESTABLISH A SIGNIFICANT RESIDENCE TIME.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE SOME MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST.  WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40
KNOTS AND MU CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT REMAIN THE AREA OF
FOCUS FOR THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MO
RIVER VALLEY REGION OF CENTRAL SD WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AS THE LOW-LVL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONTINUED ELEVATED INSTABILITY ANCHORED ABOVE 700MB WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SVR WEATHER RISK WOULD BE FOCUSED
INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...A RATHER WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...AHEAD OF A LARGER SYNOPTIC TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THE
AFTERNOON...A SFC BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NERN SE.  AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE UNCAPPED BY LATE
AFTN...TWO AREAS OF STORMS MAY FORM...ONE CLUSTER OVER NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SD AND A SECOND CLUSTER IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
EVENTUALLY THESE AREAS WILL MERGE TOGETHER AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...CERTAINTY LOOKS LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER RISK
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LVL SHEAR NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH INCREASE MID-UPR LVL WINDS IN THE EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...EVENTUALLY MERGING INTO A LARGER MCS MORE CAPABLE OF
STRONG WINDS AS IT SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST. STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH WANING INSTABILITY FURTHER
EAST INTO MN/IA LESSENING THE SEVERE RISK SOME.

COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WITH FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AND WEAK FLOW...ALONG WITH
MORE STABLE EASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISKS
WOULD BE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND VERY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS
OF MVFR VISIBILITY AS SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES SEEPS TO THE
SURFACE...BUT TIMING FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN. WILL HOLD ON TO
A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE AT KHON THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING UNTIL SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP DISPERSE
THE SMOKE PARTICLES AND BRING SOME IMPROVEMENT. UNCERTAINTY IS TOO
HIGH TO BRING VISIBILITY BELOW VFR AT KFSD/KSUX BUT WILL CERTAINLY
MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND IF NEEDED.

KEEPING TAFS PRECIP-FREE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THOUGH ISOLATED
STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 040405
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1105 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXPANDING MENTION OF PATCHY SMOKE TO COVER THE CWA FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. WHILE VISIBILITY IS NOT AS LOW AS AREAS TO OUR NORTH...WE
ARE BEGINNING TO SEE HINTS OF VISIBILITY DROPPING OFF THROUGHOUT
THE AREA. DO NOT HAVE A REALLY GOOD HANDLE ON WHEN THE SMOKE WILL
DISPERSE TO ALLOW FOR IMPROVING VISIBILITY...BUT THINK INCREASE
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY SHOULD HELP. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LEADING TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AROUND THE REGION.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD DYING AWAY TOWARDS SUNSET.  SATELLITE
INDICATING THERE IS A BIT OF SMOKE LEAKING INTO WEST AND NORTH
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES EAST...COULD BE DIFFICULT FOR
SMOKE TO ESTABLISH A SIGNIFICANT RESIDENCE TIME.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE SOME MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST.  WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40
KNOTS AND MU CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT REMAIN THE AREA OF
FOCUS FOR THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MO
RIVER VALLEY REGION OF CENTRAL SD WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AS THE LOW-LVL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONTINUED ELEVATED INSTABILITY ANCHORED ABOVE 700MB WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SVR WEATHER RISK WOULD BE FOCUSED
INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...A RATHER WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...AHEAD OF A LARGER SYNOPTIC TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THE
AFTERNOON...A SFC BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NERN SE.  AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE UNCAPPED BY LATE
AFTN...TWO AREAS OF STORMS MAY FORM...ONE CLUSTER OVER NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SD AND A SECOND CLUSTER IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
EVENTUALLY THESE AREAS WILL MERGE TOGETHER AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...CERTAINTY LOOKS LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER RISK
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LVL SHEAR NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH INCREASE MID-UPR LVL WINDS IN THE EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...EVENTUALLY MERGING INTO A LARGER MCS MORE CAPABLE OF
STRONG WINDS AS IT SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST. STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH WANING INSTABILITY FURTHER
EAST INTO MN/IA LESSENING THE SEVERE RISK SOME.

COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WITH FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AND WEAK FLOW...ALONG WITH
MORE STABLE EASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISKS
WOULD BE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND VERY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS
OF MVFR VISIBILITY AS SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES SEEPS TO THE
SURFACE...BUT TIMING FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN. WILL HOLD ON TO
A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE AT KHON THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING UNTIL SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP DISPERSE
THE SMOKE PARTICLES AND BRING SOME IMPROVEMENT. UNCERTAINTY IS TOO
HIGH TO BRING VISIBILITY BELOW VFR AT KFSD/KSUX BUT WILL CERTAINLY
MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND IF NEEDED.

KEEPING TAFS PRECIP-FREE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THOUGH ISOLATED
STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 040235
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
935 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXPANDING MENTION OF PATCHY SMOKE TO COVER THE CWA FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. WHILE VISIBILITY IS NOT AS LOW AS AREAS TO OUR NORTH...WE
ARE BEGINNING TO SEE HINTS OF VISIBILITY DROPPING OFF THROUGHOUT
THE AREA. DO NOT HAVE A REALLY GOOD HANDLE ON WHEN THE SMOKE WILL
DISPERSE TO ALLOW FOR IMPROVING VISIBILITY...BUT THINK INCREASE
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY SHOULD HELP. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LEADING TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AROUND THE REGION.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD DYING AWAY TOWARDS SUNSET.  SATELLITE
INDICATING THERE IS A BIT OF SMOKE LEAKING INTO WEST AND NORTH
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES EAST...COULD BE DIFFICULT FOR
SMOKE TO ESTABLISH A SIGNIFICANT RESIDENCE TIME.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE SOME MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST.  WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40
KNOTS AND MU CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT REMAIN THE AREA OF
FOCUS FOR THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MO
RIVER VALLEY REGION OF CENTRAL SD WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AS THE LOW-LVL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONTINUED ELEVATED INSTABILITY ANCHORED ABOVE 700MB WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SVR WEATHER RISK WOULD BE FOCUSED
INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...A RATHER WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...AHEAD OF A LARGER SYNOPTIC TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THE
AFTERNOON...A SFC BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NERN SE.  AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE UNCAPPED BY LATE
AFTN...TWO AREAS OF STORMS MAY FORM...ONE CLUSTER OVER NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SD AND A SECOND CLUSTER IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
EVENTUALLY THESE AREAS WILL MERGE TOGETHER AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...CERTAINTY LOOKS LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER RISK
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LVL SHEAR NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH INCREASE MID-UPR LVL WINDS IN THE EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...EVENTUALLY MERGING INTO A LARGER MCS MORE CAPABLE OF
STRONG WINDS AS IT SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST. STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH WANING INSTABILITY FURTHER
EAST INTO MN/IA LESSENING THE SEVERE RISK SOME.

COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WITH FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AND WEAK FLOW...ALONG WITH
MORE STABLE EASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISKS
WOULD BE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND VERY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. BASE OF SMOKE LAYER ALOFT
APPEARS TO BE IN 4-6KFT LAYER PER MID-LATE AFTERNOON PIREPS...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS WEAK INVERSION MIXING OUT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW SMOKE TO
BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED...WITH SURFACE VISIBILITY DROPPING INTO
MVFR RANGE. TIMING FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN AS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SEEING THIS IN AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOWEVER...DID INTRODUCE PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE AT KHON
AFTER 06Z FOR NOW...CARRYING THROUGH 13Z WHEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP DISPERSE THE SMOKE PARTICLES AND BRING
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO SURFACE VISIBILITY. AT THIS TIME...UNCERTAINTY
IS TOO HIGH TO BRING REDUCED VISIBILITY AS FAR SOUTH AS KFSD/KSUX
BUT WILL CERTAINLY MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND IF NEEDED.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 040235
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
935 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXPANDING MENTION OF PATCHY SMOKE TO COVER THE CWA FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. WHILE VISIBILITY IS NOT AS LOW AS AREAS TO OUR NORTH...WE
ARE BEGINNING TO SEE HINTS OF VISIBILITY DROPPING OFF THROUGHOUT
THE AREA. DO NOT HAVE A REALLY GOOD HANDLE ON WHEN THE SMOKE WILL
DISPERSE TO ALLOW FOR IMPROVING VISIBILITY...BUT THINK INCREASE
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY SHOULD HELP. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LEADING TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AROUND THE REGION.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD DYING AWAY TOWARDS SUNSET.  SATELLITE
INDICATING THERE IS A BIT OF SMOKE LEAKING INTO WEST AND NORTH
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES EAST...COULD BE DIFFICULT FOR
SMOKE TO ESTABLISH A SIGNIFICANT RESIDENCE TIME.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE SOME MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST.  WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40
KNOTS AND MU CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT REMAIN THE AREA OF
FOCUS FOR THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MO
RIVER VALLEY REGION OF CENTRAL SD WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AS THE LOW-LVL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONTINUED ELEVATED INSTABILITY ANCHORED ABOVE 700MB WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SVR WEATHER RISK WOULD BE FOCUSED
INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...A RATHER WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...AHEAD OF A LARGER SYNOPTIC TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THE
AFTERNOON...A SFC BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NERN SE.  AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE UNCAPPED BY LATE
AFTN...TWO AREAS OF STORMS MAY FORM...ONE CLUSTER OVER NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SD AND A SECOND CLUSTER IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
EVENTUALLY THESE AREAS WILL MERGE TOGETHER AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...CERTAINTY LOOKS LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER RISK
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LVL SHEAR NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH INCREASE MID-UPR LVL WINDS IN THE EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...EVENTUALLY MERGING INTO A LARGER MCS MORE CAPABLE OF
STRONG WINDS AS IT SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST. STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH WANING INSTABILITY FURTHER
EAST INTO MN/IA LESSENING THE SEVERE RISK SOME.

COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WITH FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AND WEAK FLOW...ALONG WITH
MORE STABLE EASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISKS
WOULD BE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND VERY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. BASE OF SMOKE LAYER ALOFT
APPEARS TO BE IN 4-6KFT LAYER PER MID-LATE AFTERNOON PIREPS...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS WEAK INVERSION MIXING OUT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW SMOKE TO
BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED...WITH SURFACE VISIBILITY DROPPING INTO
MVFR RANGE. TIMING FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN AS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SEEING THIS IN AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOWEVER...DID INTRODUCE PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE AT KHON
AFTER 06Z FOR NOW...CARRYING THROUGH 13Z WHEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP DISPERSE THE SMOKE PARTICLES AND BRING
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO SURFACE VISIBILITY. AT THIS TIME...UNCERTAINTY
IS TOO HIGH TO BRING REDUCED VISIBILITY AS FAR SOUTH AS KFSD/KSUX
BUT WILL CERTAINLY MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND IF NEEDED.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 040235
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
935 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXPANDING MENTION OF PATCHY SMOKE TO COVER THE CWA FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. WHILE VISIBILITY IS NOT AS LOW AS AREAS TO OUR NORTH...WE
ARE BEGINNING TO SEE HINTS OF VISIBILITY DROPPING OFF THROUGHOUT
THE AREA. DO NOT HAVE A REALLY GOOD HANDLE ON WHEN THE SMOKE WILL
DISPERSE TO ALLOW FOR IMPROVING VISIBILITY...BUT THINK INCREASE
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY SHOULD HELP. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LEADING TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AROUND THE REGION.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD DYING AWAY TOWARDS SUNSET.  SATELLITE
INDICATING THERE IS A BIT OF SMOKE LEAKING INTO WEST AND NORTH
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES EAST...COULD BE DIFFICULT FOR
SMOKE TO ESTABLISH A SIGNIFICANT RESIDENCE TIME.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE SOME MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST.  WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40
KNOTS AND MU CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT REMAIN THE AREA OF
FOCUS FOR THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MO
RIVER VALLEY REGION OF CENTRAL SD WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AS THE LOW-LVL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONTINUED ELEVATED INSTABILITY ANCHORED ABOVE 700MB WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SVR WEATHER RISK WOULD BE FOCUSED
INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...A RATHER WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...AHEAD OF A LARGER SYNOPTIC TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THE
AFTERNOON...A SFC BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NERN SE.  AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE UNCAPPED BY LATE
AFTN...TWO AREAS OF STORMS MAY FORM...ONE CLUSTER OVER NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SD AND A SECOND CLUSTER IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
EVENTUALLY THESE AREAS WILL MERGE TOGETHER AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...CERTAINTY LOOKS LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER RISK
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LVL SHEAR NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH INCREASE MID-UPR LVL WINDS IN THE EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...EVENTUALLY MERGING INTO A LARGER MCS MORE CAPABLE OF
STRONG WINDS AS IT SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST. STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH WANING INSTABILITY FURTHER
EAST INTO MN/IA LESSENING THE SEVERE RISK SOME.

COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WITH FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AND WEAK FLOW...ALONG WITH
MORE STABLE EASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISKS
WOULD BE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND VERY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. BASE OF SMOKE LAYER ALOFT
APPEARS TO BE IN 4-6KFT LAYER PER MID-LATE AFTERNOON PIREPS...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS WEAK INVERSION MIXING OUT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW SMOKE TO
BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED...WITH SURFACE VISIBILITY DROPPING INTO
MVFR RANGE. TIMING FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN AS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SEEING THIS IN AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOWEVER...DID INTRODUCE PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE AT KHON
AFTER 06Z FOR NOW...CARRYING THROUGH 13Z WHEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP DISPERSE THE SMOKE PARTICLES AND BRING
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO SURFACE VISIBILITY. AT THIS TIME...UNCERTAINTY
IS TOO HIGH TO BRING REDUCED VISIBILITY AS FAR SOUTH AS KFSD/KSUX
BUT WILL CERTAINLY MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND IF NEEDED.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 040235
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
935 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXPANDING MENTION OF PATCHY SMOKE TO COVER THE CWA FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. WHILE VISIBILITY IS NOT AS LOW AS AREAS TO OUR NORTH...WE
ARE BEGINNING TO SEE HINTS OF VISIBILITY DROPPING OFF THROUGHOUT
THE AREA. DO NOT HAVE A REALLY GOOD HANDLE ON WHEN THE SMOKE WILL
DISPERSE TO ALLOW FOR IMPROVING VISIBILITY...BUT THINK INCREASE
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY SHOULD HELP. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LEADING TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AROUND THE REGION.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD DYING AWAY TOWARDS SUNSET.  SATELLITE
INDICATING THERE IS A BIT OF SMOKE LEAKING INTO WEST AND NORTH
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES EAST...COULD BE DIFFICULT FOR
SMOKE TO ESTABLISH A SIGNIFICANT RESIDENCE TIME.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE SOME MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST.  WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40
KNOTS AND MU CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT REMAIN THE AREA OF
FOCUS FOR THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MO
RIVER VALLEY REGION OF CENTRAL SD WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AS THE LOW-LVL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONTINUED ELEVATED INSTABILITY ANCHORED ABOVE 700MB WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SVR WEATHER RISK WOULD BE FOCUSED
INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...A RATHER WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...AHEAD OF A LARGER SYNOPTIC TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THE
AFTERNOON...A SFC BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NERN SE.  AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE UNCAPPED BY LATE
AFTN...TWO AREAS OF STORMS MAY FORM...ONE CLUSTER OVER NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SD AND A SECOND CLUSTER IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
EVENTUALLY THESE AREAS WILL MERGE TOGETHER AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...CERTAINTY LOOKS LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER RISK
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LVL SHEAR NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH INCREASE MID-UPR LVL WINDS IN THE EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...EVENTUALLY MERGING INTO A LARGER MCS MORE CAPABLE OF
STRONG WINDS AS IT SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST. STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH WANING INSTABILITY FURTHER
EAST INTO MN/IA LESSENING THE SEVERE RISK SOME.

COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WITH FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AND WEAK FLOW...ALONG WITH
MORE STABLE EASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISKS
WOULD BE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND VERY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. BASE OF SMOKE LAYER ALOFT
APPEARS TO BE IN 4-6KFT LAYER PER MID-LATE AFTERNOON PIREPS...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS WEAK INVERSION MIXING OUT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW SMOKE TO
BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED...WITH SURFACE VISIBILITY DROPPING INTO
MVFR RANGE. TIMING FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN AS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SEEING THIS IN AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOWEVER...DID INTRODUCE PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE AT KHON
AFTER 06Z FOR NOW...CARRYING THROUGH 13Z WHEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP DISPERSE THE SMOKE PARTICLES AND BRING
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO SURFACE VISIBILITY. AT THIS TIME...UNCERTAINTY
IS TOO HIGH TO BRING REDUCED VISIBILITY AS FAR SOUTH AS KFSD/KSUX
BUT WILL CERTAINLY MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND IF NEEDED.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 040235
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
935 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXPANDING MENTION OF PATCHY SMOKE TO COVER THE CWA FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. WHILE VISIBILITY IS NOT AS LOW AS AREAS TO OUR NORTH...WE
ARE BEGINNING TO SEE HINTS OF VISIBILITY DROPPING OFF THROUGHOUT
THE AREA. DO NOT HAVE A REALLY GOOD HANDLE ON WHEN THE SMOKE WILL
DISPERSE TO ALLOW FOR IMPROVING VISIBILITY...BUT THINK INCREASE
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY SHOULD HELP. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LEADING TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AROUND THE REGION.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD DYING AWAY TOWARDS SUNSET.  SATELLITE
INDICATING THERE IS A BIT OF SMOKE LEAKING INTO WEST AND NORTH
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES EAST...COULD BE DIFFICULT FOR
SMOKE TO ESTABLISH A SIGNIFICANT RESIDENCE TIME.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE SOME MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST.  WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40
KNOTS AND MU CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT REMAIN THE AREA OF
FOCUS FOR THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MO
RIVER VALLEY REGION OF CENTRAL SD WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AS THE LOW-LVL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONTINUED ELEVATED INSTABILITY ANCHORED ABOVE 700MB WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SVR WEATHER RISK WOULD BE FOCUSED
INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...A RATHER WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...AHEAD OF A LARGER SYNOPTIC TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THE
AFTERNOON...A SFC BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NERN SE.  AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE UNCAPPED BY LATE
AFTN...TWO AREAS OF STORMS MAY FORM...ONE CLUSTER OVER NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SD AND A SECOND CLUSTER IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
EVENTUALLY THESE AREAS WILL MERGE TOGETHER AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...CERTAINTY LOOKS LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER RISK
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LVL SHEAR NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH INCREASE MID-UPR LVL WINDS IN THE EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...EVENTUALLY MERGING INTO A LARGER MCS MORE CAPABLE OF
STRONG WINDS AS IT SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST. STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH WANING INSTABILITY FURTHER
EAST INTO MN/IA LESSENING THE SEVERE RISK SOME.

COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WITH FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AND WEAK FLOW...ALONG WITH
MORE STABLE EASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISKS
WOULD BE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND VERY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. BASE OF SMOKE LAYER ALOFT
APPEARS TO BE IN 4-6KFT LAYER PER MID-LATE AFTERNOON PIREPS...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS WEAK INVERSION MIXING OUT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW SMOKE TO
BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED...WITH SURFACE VISIBILITY DROPPING INTO
MVFR RANGE. TIMING FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN AS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SEEING THIS IN AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOWEVER...DID INTRODUCE PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE AT KHON
AFTER 06Z FOR NOW...CARRYING THROUGH 13Z WHEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP DISPERSE THE SMOKE PARTICLES AND BRING
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO SURFACE VISIBILITY. AT THIS TIME...UNCERTAINTY
IS TOO HIGH TO BRING REDUCED VISIBILITY AS FAR SOUTH AS KFSD/KSUX
BUT WILL CERTAINLY MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND IF NEEDED.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 040235
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
935 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXPANDING MENTION OF PATCHY SMOKE TO COVER THE CWA FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. WHILE VISIBILITY IS NOT AS LOW AS AREAS TO OUR NORTH...WE
ARE BEGINNING TO SEE HINTS OF VISIBILITY DROPPING OFF THROUGHOUT
THE AREA. DO NOT HAVE A REALLY GOOD HANDLE ON WHEN THE SMOKE WILL
DISPERSE TO ALLOW FOR IMPROVING VISIBILITY...BUT THINK INCREASE
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY SHOULD HELP. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LEADING TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AROUND THE REGION.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD DYING AWAY TOWARDS SUNSET.  SATELLITE
INDICATING THERE IS A BIT OF SMOKE LEAKING INTO WEST AND NORTH
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES EAST...COULD BE DIFFICULT FOR
SMOKE TO ESTABLISH A SIGNIFICANT RESIDENCE TIME.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE SOME MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST.  WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40
KNOTS AND MU CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT REMAIN THE AREA OF
FOCUS FOR THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MO
RIVER VALLEY REGION OF CENTRAL SD WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AS THE LOW-LVL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONTINUED ELEVATED INSTABILITY ANCHORED ABOVE 700MB WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SVR WEATHER RISK WOULD BE FOCUSED
INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...A RATHER WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...AHEAD OF A LARGER SYNOPTIC TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THE
AFTERNOON...A SFC BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NERN SE.  AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE UNCAPPED BY LATE
AFTN...TWO AREAS OF STORMS MAY FORM...ONE CLUSTER OVER NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SD AND A SECOND CLUSTER IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
EVENTUALLY THESE AREAS WILL MERGE TOGETHER AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...CERTAINTY LOOKS LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER RISK
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LVL SHEAR NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH INCREASE MID-UPR LVL WINDS IN THE EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...EVENTUALLY MERGING INTO A LARGER MCS MORE CAPABLE OF
STRONG WINDS AS IT SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST. STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH WANING INSTABILITY FURTHER
EAST INTO MN/IA LESSENING THE SEVERE RISK SOME.

COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WITH FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AND WEAK FLOW...ALONG WITH
MORE STABLE EASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISKS
WOULD BE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND VERY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. BASE OF SMOKE LAYER ALOFT
APPEARS TO BE IN 4-6KFT LAYER PER MID-LATE AFTERNOON PIREPS...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS WEAK INVERSION MIXING OUT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW SMOKE TO
BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED...WITH SURFACE VISIBILITY DROPPING INTO
MVFR RANGE. TIMING FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN AS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SEEING THIS IN AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOWEVER...DID INTRODUCE PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE AT KHON
AFTER 06Z FOR NOW...CARRYING THROUGH 13Z WHEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP DISPERSE THE SMOKE PARTICLES AND BRING
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO SURFACE VISIBILITY. AT THIS TIME...UNCERTAINTY
IS TOO HIGH TO BRING REDUCED VISIBILITY AS FAR SOUTH AS KFSD/KSUX
BUT WILL CERTAINLY MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND IF NEEDED.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KABR 040217 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
917 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA AT THIS
TIME...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SMOKE STILL STREAMING OVER THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH FIRES IN CANADA. DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...VISIBILITIES ARE BEING REDUCED AS LOW AS 2SM DUE TO
THE SMOKE. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY.  FOR TNT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT...AND THE LLJ
SHOULD FOCUS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  THAT LLJ SHIFTS
EAST ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1K J/KG BY AFTERNOON...AND H85
DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN +10C.  HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL.
NONETHELESS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.  OVERNIGHT LLJ GETS STRONGER WITH AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OUT A HEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
EML. THAT EML WILL PROBABLY HOLD MOST OF THE STORMS AT BAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.  BY THAT TIME A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BREAK
ANY CAP THAT MAY EXIST.  HOWEVER THERE IS ON CAVEAT.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MARGINAL A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  SO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES..IT WILL BE WARM AND STICKY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME RELIEF LATE DAY ON SUNDAY IN WEST...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. SFC HIGH THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. BY
MIDWEEK...WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS SO BASICALLY RAN WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SMOKE BEING CARRIED DOWN FROM FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...THE SMOKE LAYER SHOULD RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO
BRING VFR VSBYS BACK TO THE REGION. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 040217 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
917 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA AT THIS
TIME...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SMOKE STILL STREAMING OVER THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH FIRES IN CANADA. DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...VISIBILITIES ARE BEING REDUCED AS LOW AS 2SM DUE TO
THE SMOKE. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY.  FOR TNT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT...AND THE LLJ
SHOULD FOCUS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  THAT LLJ SHIFTS
EAST ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1K J/KG BY AFTERNOON...AND H85
DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN +10C.  HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL.
NONETHELESS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.  OVERNIGHT LLJ GETS STRONGER WITH AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OUT A HEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
EML. THAT EML WILL PROBABLY HOLD MOST OF THE STORMS AT BAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.  BY THAT TIME A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BREAK
ANY CAP THAT MAY EXIST.  HOWEVER THERE IS ON CAVEAT.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MARGINAL A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  SO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES..IT WILL BE WARM AND STICKY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME RELIEF LATE DAY ON SUNDAY IN WEST...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. SFC HIGH THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. BY
MIDWEEK...WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS SO BASICALLY RAN WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SMOKE BEING CARRIED DOWN FROM FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...THE SMOKE LAYER SHOULD RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO
BRING VFR VSBYS BACK TO THE REGION. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 040217 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
917 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA AT THIS
TIME...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SMOKE STILL STREAMING OVER THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH FIRES IN CANADA. DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...VISIBILITIES ARE BEING REDUCED AS LOW AS 2SM DUE TO
THE SMOKE. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY.  FOR TNT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT...AND THE LLJ
SHOULD FOCUS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  THAT LLJ SHIFTS
EAST ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1K J/KG BY AFTERNOON...AND H85
DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN +10C.  HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL.
NONETHELESS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.  OVERNIGHT LLJ GETS STRONGER WITH AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OUT A HEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
EML. THAT EML WILL PROBABLY HOLD MOST OF THE STORMS AT BAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.  BY THAT TIME A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BREAK
ANY CAP THAT MAY EXIST.  HOWEVER THERE IS ON CAVEAT.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MARGINAL A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  SO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES..IT WILL BE WARM AND STICKY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME RELIEF LATE DAY ON SUNDAY IN WEST...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. SFC HIGH THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. BY
MIDWEEK...WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS SO BASICALLY RAN WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SMOKE BEING CARRIED DOWN FROM FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...THE SMOKE LAYER SHOULD RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO
BRING VFR VSBYS BACK TO THE REGION. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 040217 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
917 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA AT THIS
TIME...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SMOKE STILL STREAMING OVER THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH FIRES IN CANADA. DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...VISIBILITIES ARE BEING REDUCED AS LOW AS 2SM DUE TO
THE SMOKE. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY.  FOR TNT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT...AND THE LLJ
SHOULD FOCUS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  THAT LLJ SHIFTS
EAST ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1K J/KG BY AFTERNOON...AND H85
DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN +10C.  HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL.
NONETHELESS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.  OVERNIGHT LLJ GETS STRONGER WITH AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OUT A HEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
EML. THAT EML WILL PROBABLY HOLD MOST OF THE STORMS AT BAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.  BY THAT TIME A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BREAK
ANY CAP THAT MAY EXIST.  HOWEVER THERE IS ON CAVEAT.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MARGINAL A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  SO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES..IT WILL BE WARM AND STICKY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME RELIEF LATE DAY ON SUNDAY IN WEST...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. SFC HIGH THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. BY
MIDWEEK...WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS SO BASICALLY RAN WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SMOKE BEING CARRIED DOWN FROM FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...THE SMOKE LAYER SHOULD RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO
BRING VFR VSBYS BACK TO THE REGION. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 032327 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY.  FOR TNT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT...AND THE LLJ
SHOULD FOCUS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  THAT LLJ SHIFTS
EAST ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1K J/KG BY AFTERNOON...AND H85
DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN +10C.  HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL.
NONETHELESS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.  OVERNIGHT LLJ GETS STRONGER WITH AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OUT A HEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
EML. THAT EML WILL PROBABLY HOLD MOST OF THE STORMS AT BAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.  BY THAT TIME A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BREAK
ANY CAP THAT MAY EXIST.  HOWEVER THERE IS ON CAVEAT.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MARGINAL A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  SO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES..IT WILL BE WARM AND STICKY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME RELIEF LATE DAY ON SUNDAY IN WEST...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. SFC HIGH THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. BY
MIDWEEK...WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS SO BASICALLY RAN WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SMOKE BEING CARRIED DOWN FROM FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...THE SMOKE LAYER SHOULD RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO
BRING VFR VSBYS BACK TO THE REGION. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KABR 032327 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY.  FOR TNT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT...AND THE LLJ
SHOULD FOCUS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  THAT LLJ SHIFTS
EAST ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1K J/KG BY AFTERNOON...AND H85
DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN +10C.  HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL.
NONETHELESS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.  OVERNIGHT LLJ GETS STRONGER WITH AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OUT A HEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
EML. THAT EML WILL PROBABLY HOLD MOST OF THE STORMS AT BAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.  BY THAT TIME A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BREAK
ANY CAP THAT MAY EXIST.  HOWEVER THERE IS ON CAVEAT.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MARGINAL A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  SO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES..IT WILL BE WARM AND STICKY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME RELIEF LATE DAY ON SUNDAY IN WEST...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. SFC HIGH THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. BY
MIDWEEK...WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS SO BASICALLY RAN WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SMOKE BEING CARRIED DOWN FROM FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...THE SMOKE LAYER SHOULD RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO
BRING VFR VSBYS BACK TO THE REGION. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KUNR 032310
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
510 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK
HILLS AREA. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC



000
FXUS63 KUNR 032310
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
510 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK
HILLS AREA. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 032014
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
214 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK
HILLS AREA. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS63 KUNR 032014
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
214 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK
HILLS AREA. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 032014
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
214 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK
HILLS AREA. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS63 KUNR 032014
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
214 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK
HILLS AREA. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KFSD 031952
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
252 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LEADING TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AROUND THE REGION.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD DYING AWAY TOWARDS SUNSET.  SATELLITE
INDICATING THERE IS A BIT OF SMOKE LEAKING INTO WEST AND NORTH
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES EAST...COULD BE DIFFICULT FOR
SMOKE TO ESTABLISH A SIGNIFICANT RESIDENCE TIME.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE SOME MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST.  WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40
KNOTS AND MU CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT REMAIN THE AREA OF
FOCUS FOR THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MO
RIVER VALLEY REGION OF CENTRAL SD WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AS THE LOW-LVL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONTINUED ELEVATED INSTABILITY ANCHORED ABOVE 700MB WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SVR WEATHER RISK WOULD BE FOCUSED
INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...A RATHER WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...AHEAD OF A LARGER SYNOPTIC TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THE
AFTERNOON...A SFC BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NERN SE.  AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE UNCAPPED BY LATE
AFTN...TWO AREAS OF STORMS MAY FORM...ONE CLUSTER OVER NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SD AND A SECOND CLUSTER IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
EVENTUALLY THESE AREAS WILL MERGE TOGETHER AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...CERTAINTY LOOKS LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER RISK
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LVL SHEAR NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH INCREASE MID-UPR LVL WINDS IN THE EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...EVENTUALLY MERGING INTO A LARGER MCS MORE CAPABLE OF
STRONG WINDS AS IT SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST. STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH WANING INSTABILITY FURTHER
EAST INTO MN/IA LESSENING THE SEVERE RISK SOME.

COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WITH FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AND WEAK FLOW...ALONG WITH
MORE STABLE EASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISKS
WOULD BE LOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. COULD SEE SOME 4-7 MI VISIBILITIES
ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS SMOKE
FROM FIRES TO THE NORTH OOZES EAST.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 031952
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
252 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LEADING TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AROUND THE REGION.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD DYING AWAY TOWARDS SUNSET.  SATELLITE
INDICATING THERE IS A BIT OF SMOKE LEAKING INTO WEST AND NORTH
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES EAST...COULD BE DIFFICULT FOR
SMOKE TO ESTABLISH A SIGNIFICANT RESIDENCE TIME.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE SOME MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST.  WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40
KNOTS AND MU CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT REMAIN THE AREA OF
FOCUS FOR THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MO
RIVER VALLEY REGION OF CENTRAL SD WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AS THE LOW-LVL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONTINUED ELEVATED INSTABILITY ANCHORED ABOVE 700MB WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SVR WEATHER RISK WOULD BE FOCUSED
INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...A RATHER WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...AHEAD OF A LARGER SYNOPTIC TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THE
AFTERNOON...A SFC BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NERN SE.  AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE UNCAPPED BY LATE
AFTN...TWO AREAS OF STORMS MAY FORM...ONE CLUSTER OVER NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SD AND A SECOND CLUSTER IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
EVENTUALLY THESE AREAS WILL MERGE TOGETHER AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...CERTAINTY LOOKS LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER RISK
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LVL SHEAR NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH INCREASE MID-UPR LVL WINDS IN THE EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...EVENTUALLY MERGING INTO A LARGER MCS MORE CAPABLE OF
STRONG WINDS AS IT SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST. STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH WANING INSTABILITY FURTHER
EAST INTO MN/IA LESSENING THE SEVERE RISK SOME.

COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WITH FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AND WEAK FLOW...ALONG WITH
MORE STABLE EASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISKS
WOULD BE LOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. COULD SEE SOME 4-7 MI VISIBILITIES
ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS SMOKE
FROM FIRES TO THE NORTH OOZES EAST.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 031952
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
252 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LEADING TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AROUND THE REGION.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD DYING AWAY TOWARDS SUNSET.  SATELLITE
INDICATING THERE IS A BIT OF SMOKE LEAKING INTO WEST AND NORTH
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES EAST...COULD BE DIFFICULT FOR
SMOKE TO ESTABLISH A SIGNIFICANT RESIDENCE TIME.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE SOME MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST.  WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40
KNOTS AND MU CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT REMAIN THE AREA OF
FOCUS FOR THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MO
RIVER VALLEY REGION OF CENTRAL SD WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AS THE LOW-LVL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONTINUED ELEVATED INSTABILITY ANCHORED ABOVE 700MB WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SVR WEATHER RISK WOULD BE FOCUSED
INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...A RATHER WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...AHEAD OF A LARGER SYNOPTIC TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THE
AFTERNOON...A SFC BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NERN SE.  AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE UNCAPPED BY LATE
AFTN...TWO AREAS OF STORMS MAY FORM...ONE CLUSTER OVER NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SD AND A SECOND CLUSTER IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
EVENTUALLY THESE AREAS WILL MERGE TOGETHER AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...CERTAINTY LOOKS LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER RISK
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LVL SHEAR NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH INCREASE MID-UPR LVL WINDS IN THE EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...EVENTUALLY MERGING INTO A LARGER MCS MORE CAPABLE OF
STRONG WINDS AS IT SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST. STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH WANING INSTABILITY FURTHER
EAST INTO MN/IA LESSENING THE SEVERE RISK SOME.

COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WITH FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AND WEAK FLOW...ALONG WITH
MORE STABLE EASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISKS
WOULD BE LOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. COULD SEE SOME 4-7 MI VISIBILITIES
ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS SMOKE
FROM FIRES TO THE NORTH OOZES EAST.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 031952
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
252 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LEADING TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AROUND THE REGION.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD DYING AWAY TOWARDS SUNSET.  SATELLITE
INDICATING THERE IS A BIT OF SMOKE LEAKING INTO WEST AND NORTH
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES EAST...COULD BE DIFFICULT FOR
SMOKE TO ESTABLISH A SIGNIFICANT RESIDENCE TIME.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE SOME MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST.  WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40
KNOTS AND MU CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT REMAIN THE AREA OF
FOCUS FOR THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MO
RIVER VALLEY REGION OF CENTRAL SD WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AS THE LOW-LVL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONTINUED ELEVATED INSTABILITY ANCHORED ABOVE 700MB WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SVR WEATHER RISK WOULD BE FOCUSED
INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...A RATHER WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...AHEAD OF A LARGER SYNOPTIC TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THE
AFTERNOON...A SFC BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NERN SE.  AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE UNCAPPED BY LATE
AFTN...TWO AREAS OF STORMS MAY FORM...ONE CLUSTER OVER NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SD AND A SECOND CLUSTER IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
EVENTUALLY THESE AREAS WILL MERGE TOGETHER AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...CERTAINTY LOOKS LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER RISK
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LVL SHEAR NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH INCREASE MID-UPR LVL WINDS IN THE EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...EVENTUALLY MERGING INTO A LARGER MCS MORE CAPABLE OF
STRONG WINDS AS IT SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST. STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH WANING INSTABILITY FURTHER
EAST INTO MN/IA LESSENING THE SEVERE RISK SOME.

COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WITH FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AND WEAK FLOW...ALONG WITH
MORE STABLE EASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISKS
WOULD BE LOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. COULD SEE SOME 4-7 MI VISIBILITIES
ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS SMOKE
FROM FIRES TO THE NORTH OOZES EAST.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KABR 031919
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY.  FOR TNT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT...AND THE LLJ
SHOULD FOCUS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  THAT LLJ SHIFTS
EAST ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1K J/KG BY AFTERNOON...AND H85
DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN +10C.  HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL.
NONETHELESS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.  OVERNIGHT LLJ GETS STRONGER WITH AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OUT A HEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
EML. THAT EML WILL PROBABLY HOLD MOST OF THE STORMS AT BAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.  BY THAT TIME A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BREAK
ANY CAP THAT MAY EXIST.  HOWEVER THERE IS ON CAVEAT.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MARGINAL A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  SO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES..IT WILL BE WARM AND STICKY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME RELIEF LATE DAY ON SUNDAY IN WEST...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. SFC HIGH THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. BY
MIDWEEK...WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS SO BASICALLY RAN WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WIDESPREAD SMOKE /FU/ CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM
CANADIAN/ALASKAN WILDFIRES. VSBY IS GENERALLY 3SM TO 4SM ACROSS
THE TAF SITES ALTHOUGH VSBY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AFFECTING KATY AT
THE MOMENT. THE SMOKE IS ALSO CREATING A CIG LAYER BUT IT IS VFR.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACTUAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BUT CAN EXPECT SMOKE TO ONCE AGAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT



000
FXUS63 KABR 031919
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY.  FOR TNT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT...AND THE LLJ
SHOULD FOCUS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  THAT LLJ SHIFTS
EAST ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1K J/KG BY AFTERNOON...AND H85
DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN +10C.  HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL.
NONETHELESS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.  OVERNIGHT LLJ GETS STRONGER WITH AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OUT A HEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
EML. THAT EML WILL PROBABLY HOLD MOST OF THE STORMS AT BAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.  BY THAT TIME A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BREAK
ANY CAP THAT MAY EXIST.  HOWEVER THERE IS ON CAVEAT.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MARGINAL A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  SO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES..IT WILL BE WARM AND STICKY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME RELIEF LATE DAY ON SUNDAY IN WEST...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. SFC HIGH THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. BY
MIDWEEK...WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS SO BASICALLY RAN WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WIDESPREAD SMOKE /FU/ CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM
CANADIAN/ALASKAN WILDFIRES. VSBY IS GENERALLY 3SM TO 4SM ACROSS
THE TAF SITES ALTHOUGH VSBY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AFFECTING KATY AT
THE MOMENT. THE SMOKE IS ALSO CREATING A CIG LAYER BUT IT IS VFR.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACTUAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BUT CAN EXPECT SMOKE TO ONCE AGAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT




000
FXUS63 KABR 031919
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY.  FOR TNT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT...AND THE LLJ
SHOULD FOCUS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  THAT LLJ SHIFTS
EAST ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1K J/KG BY AFTERNOON...AND H85
DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN +10C.  HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL.
NONETHELESS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.  OVERNIGHT LLJ GETS STRONGER WITH AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OUT A HEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
EML. THAT EML WILL PROBABLY HOLD MOST OF THE STORMS AT BAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.  BY THAT TIME A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BREAK
ANY CAP THAT MAY EXIST.  HOWEVER THERE IS ON CAVEAT.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MARGINAL A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  SO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES..IT WILL BE WARM AND STICKY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME RELIEF LATE DAY ON SUNDAY IN WEST...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. SFC HIGH THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. BY
MIDWEEK...WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS SO BASICALLY RAN WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WIDESPREAD SMOKE /FU/ CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM
CANADIAN/ALASKAN WILDFIRES. VSBY IS GENERALLY 3SM TO 4SM ACROSS
THE TAF SITES ALTHOUGH VSBY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AFFECTING KATY AT
THE MOMENT. THE SMOKE IS ALSO CREATING A CIG LAYER BUT IT IS VFR.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACTUAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BUT CAN EXPECT SMOKE TO ONCE AGAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT




000
FXUS63 KABR 031919
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY.  FOR TNT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT...AND THE LLJ
SHOULD FOCUS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  THAT LLJ SHIFTS
EAST ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1K J/KG BY AFTERNOON...AND H85
DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN +10C.  HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL.
NONETHELESS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.  OVERNIGHT LLJ GETS STRONGER WITH AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OUT A HEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
EML. THAT EML WILL PROBABLY HOLD MOST OF THE STORMS AT BAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.  BY THAT TIME A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BREAK
ANY CAP THAT MAY EXIST.  HOWEVER THERE IS ON CAVEAT.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MARGINAL A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  SO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES..IT WILL BE WARM AND STICKY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME RELIEF LATE DAY ON SUNDAY IN WEST...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. SFC HIGH THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. BY
MIDWEEK...WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS SO BASICALLY RAN WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WIDESPREAD SMOKE /FU/ CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM
CANADIAN/ALASKAN WILDFIRES. VSBY IS GENERALLY 3SM TO 4SM ACROSS
THE TAF SITES ALTHOUGH VSBY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AFFECTING KATY AT
THE MOMENT. THE SMOKE IS ALSO CREATING A CIG LAYER BUT IT IS VFR.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACTUAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BUT CAN EXPECT SMOKE TO ONCE AGAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT



000
FXUS63 KABR 031742 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING. SMOKE IS MOVING DOWN INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND THAT MAY LIMIT TEMP RISE A BIT. LATEST
NAM/HRRR ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NAM SUGGESTS
PROFILES ARE VERY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE HOWEVER...SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER/RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CAMS POINT TO THE EASTERN
CWA AS BEST LOCATION FOR ANY CONVECTION.

A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED
ACCAS SHOWER...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WARM...PROFILES MAY REMAIN MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES EXIST EARLY SUNDAY AM AS A
20 TO 30KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCAPE VALUES TOP
OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG.

A SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS NEAR THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO SPLIT THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WITH LOWS FORMING TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. WE WILL BE LEFT
WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY ALONG A SURFACE TROF SITUATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WITH UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KM MLCAPE. PROFILES
SUGGEST SHEAR WILL BE WEAK HOWEVER...RESIDING IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...WHERE AN AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION MAY RESIDE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUN DESPITE
BEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA. 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT...AROUND +8 TO +12C...AHEAD OF
THE WEAK FRONT. THERE MAY BE GOOD MIXING IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S...HOWEVER
THAT DEPENDS ON THE COVERAGE OF POST FRONTAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED AS A COLD FRONT
TRAILS DOWN FROM A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CANADIAN LOW. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A LOT OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SFC FRONT WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT.

ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WIDESPREAD SMOKE /FU/ CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM
CANADIAN/ALASKAN WILDFIRES. VSBY IS GENERALLY 3SM TO 4SM ACROSS
THE TAF SITES ALTHOUGH VSBY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AFFECTING KATY AT
THE MOMENT. THE SMOKE IS ALSO CREATING A CIG LAYER BUT IT IS VFR.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACTUAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BUT CAN EXPECT SMOKE TO ONCE AGAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT/TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TMT



000
FXUS63 KFSD 031742
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...LEADING TO A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT IT DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TONIGHT...THOUGH THINK THAT FOG WILL
BE LESS LIKELY WITH A MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. LOWS ARE LOOKING TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE SUMMER DAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF
ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND HIGHS IN THE 80S. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME
HUMIDITY DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IS NOT ALL THAT
OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BOTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY.

SUNDAY STILL POSES THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CREEP INTO THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND
DECENT SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MEAN AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY IT SHOULD FEEL VERY SUMMER LIKE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE HEAT
INDEX COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 90S IN THE WESTERN CWA JUST AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. WHILE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOT COMPLETELY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SO HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL KEEP RELATIVELY FAST WEST OR
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HINTS THAT
MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY BUT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
A WAVE WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WHILE THE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE IN PLACE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
AROUND TO ALLOW SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME SEVERE
WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES STILL PLANNING ON
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGH MAINLY FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. COULD SEE SOME 4-7 MI VISIBILITIES
ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS SMOKE
FROM FIRES TO THE NORTH OOZES EAST.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 031742
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...LEADING TO A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT IT DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TONIGHT...THOUGH THINK THAT FOG WILL
BE LESS LIKELY WITH A MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. LOWS ARE LOOKING TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE SUMMER DAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF
ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND HIGHS IN THE 80S. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME
HUMIDITY DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IS NOT ALL THAT
OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BOTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY.

SUNDAY STILL POSES THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CREEP INTO THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND
DECENT SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MEAN AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY IT SHOULD FEEL VERY SUMMER LIKE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE HEAT
INDEX COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 90S IN THE WESTERN CWA JUST AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. WHILE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOT COMPLETELY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SO HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL KEEP RELATIVELY FAST WEST OR
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HINTS THAT
MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY BUT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
A WAVE WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WHILE THE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE IN PLACE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
AROUND TO ALLOW SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME SEVERE
WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES STILL PLANNING ON
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGH MAINLY FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. COULD SEE SOME 4-7 MI VISIBILITIES
ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS SMOKE
FROM FIRES TO THE NORTH OOZES EAST.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KUNR 031715
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1115 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. SOME
BR/FU FROM EAST CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN NE...SHOULD LAST UNTIL
EARLY MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT AS DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE BEINGS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MT
WHICH IS TAPPING INTO WEAK MUCAPE FOR ISOLATED -SHRA/TS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA THIS MORNING. IT MAY BE
FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING -TSRA AS 0.5-1KJ/KG MLCAPE
DEVELOPS ALONG WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN. SURFACE REFLECTION OF
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO BE WEAK AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
EXPANDED LOW POPS FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
SHORTWAVE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED WITH TYPICAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF WEAK LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E ADVECTION. WITH
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR EAST AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
IT...LEFT FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISE TO SEE ACCAS.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST/SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE EAST.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO EASTERN
CO...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NE. THIS MAY BE FOCUS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ACTIVITY WITH 1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE AVAILABLE. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD AS TERRAIN AND TROUGH INTERACT.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN.
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA SWINGS INTO CENTRAL CANADA...SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS FLATTENED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF
STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH STRONG SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP.

DRIER NW FLOW WILL KEEP EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE OVER NE WY/BLKHLS. COOLER TEMPS MON/TUE WILL
BECOME MORE SEASONAL THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF
STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS63 KUNR 031715
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1115 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. SOME
BR/FU FROM EAST CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN NE...SHOULD LAST UNTIL
EARLY MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT AS DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE BEINGS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MT
WHICH IS TAPPING INTO WEAK MUCAPE FOR ISOLATED -SHRA/TS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA THIS MORNING. IT MAY BE
FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING -TSRA AS 0.5-1KJ/KG MLCAPE
DEVELOPS ALONG WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN. SURFACE REFLECTION OF
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO BE WEAK AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
EXPANDED LOW POPS FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
SHORTWAVE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED WITH TYPICAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF WEAK LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E ADVECTION. WITH
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR EAST AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
IT...LEFT FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISE TO SEE ACCAS.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST/SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE EAST.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO EASTERN
CO...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NE. THIS MAY BE FOCUS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ACTIVITY WITH 1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE AVAILABLE. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD AS TERRAIN AND TROUGH INTERACT.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN.
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA SWINGS INTO CENTRAL CANADA...SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS FLATTENED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF
STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH STRONG SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP.

DRIER NW FLOW WILL KEEP EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE OVER NE WY/BLKHLS. COOLER TEMPS MON/TUE WILL
BECOME MORE SEASONAL THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF
STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KABR 031537 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1037 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING. SMOKE IS MOVING DOWN INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND THAT MAY LIMIT TEMP RISE A BIT. LATEST
NAM/HRRR ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NAM SUGGESTS
PROFILES ARE VERY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE HOWEVER...SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER/RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CAMS POINT TO THE EASTERN
CWA AS BEST LOCATION FOR ANY CONVECTION.

A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED
ACCAS SHOWER...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WARM...PROFILES MAY REMAIN MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES EXIST EARLY SUNDAY AM AS A
20 TO 30KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCAPE VALUES TOP
OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG.

A SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS NEAR THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO SPLIT THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WITH LOWS FORMING TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. WE WILL BE LEFT
WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY ALONG A SURFACE TROF SITUATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WITH UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KM MLCAPE. PROFILES
SUGGEST SHEAR WILL BE WEAK HOWEVER...RESIDING IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...WHERE AN AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION MAY RESIDE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUN DESPITE
BEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA. 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT...AROUND +8 TO +12C...AHEAD OF
THE WEAK FRONT. THERE MAY BE GOOD MIXING IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S...HOWEVER
THAT DEPENDS ON THE COVERAGE OF POST FRONTAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED AS A COLD FRONT
TRAILS DOWN FROM A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CANADIAN LOW. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A LOT OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SFC FRONT WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT.

ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR/IFR VSBY IN FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 15Z. THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 031537 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1037 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING. SMOKE IS MOVING DOWN INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND THAT MAY LIMIT TEMP RISE A BIT. LATEST
NAM/HRRR ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NAM SUGGESTS
PROFILES ARE VERY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE HOWEVER...SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER/RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CAMS POINT TO THE EASTERN
CWA AS BEST LOCATION FOR ANY CONVECTION.

A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED
ACCAS SHOWER...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WARM...PROFILES MAY REMAIN MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES EXIST EARLY SUNDAY AM AS A
20 TO 30KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCAPE VALUES TOP
OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG.

A SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS NEAR THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO SPLIT THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WITH LOWS FORMING TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. WE WILL BE LEFT
WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY ALONG A SURFACE TROF SITUATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WITH UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KM MLCAPE. PROFILES
SUGGEST SHEAR WILL BE WEAK HOWEVER...RESIDING IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...WHERE AN AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION MAY RESIDE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUN DESPITE
BEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA. 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT...AROUND +8 TO +12C...AHEAD OF
THE WEAK FRONT. THERE MAY BE GOOD MIXING IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S...HOWEVER
THAT DEPENDS ON THE COVERAGE OF POST FRONTAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED AS A COLD FRONT
TRAILS DOWN FROM A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CANADIAN LOW. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A LOT OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SFC FRONT WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT.

ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR/IFR VSBY IN FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 15Z. THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE



000
FXUS63 KUNR 031138
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
538 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. SOME
BR/FU FROM EAST CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN NE...SHOULD LAST UNTIL
EARLY MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT AS DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE BEINGS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MT
WHICH IS TAPPING INTO WEAK MUCAPE FOR ISOLATED -SHRA/TS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA THIS MORNING. IT MAY BE
FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING -TSRA AS 0.5-1KJ/KG MLCAPE
DEVELOPS ALONG WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN. SURFACE REFLECTION OF
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO BE WEAK AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
EXPANDED LOW POPS FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
SHORTWAVE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED WITH TYPICAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF WEAK LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E ADVECTION. WITH
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR EAST AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
IT...LEFT FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISE TO SEE ACCAS.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST/SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE EAST.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO EASTERN
CO...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NE. THIS MAY BE FOCUS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ACTIVITY WITH 1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE AVAILABLE. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD AS TERRAIN AND TROUGH INTERACT.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN.
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA SWINGS INTO CENTRAL CANADA...SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS FLATTENED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF
STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH STRONG SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP.

DRIER NW FLOW WILL KEEP EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE OVER NE WY/BLKHLS. COOLER TEMPS MON/TUE WILL
BECOME MORE SEASONAL THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF
STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. IFR VSBY DUE
TO FG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING ACROSS SCNTRL SD. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
BLKHLS AREA THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 031138
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
538 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. SOME
BR/FU FROM EAST CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN NE...SHOULD LAST UNTIL
EARLY MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT AS DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE BEINGS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MT
WHICH IS TAPPING INTO WEAK MUCAPE FOR ISOLATED -SHRA/TS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA THIS MORNING. IT MAY BE
FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING -TSRA AS 0.5-1KJ/KG MLCAPE
DEVELOPS ALONG WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN. SURFACE REFLECTION OF
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO BE WEAK AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
EXPANDED LOW POPS FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
SHORTWAVE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED WITH TYPICAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF WEAK LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E ADVECTION. WITH
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR EAST AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
IT...LEFT FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISE TO SEE ACCAS.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST/SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE EAST.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO EASTERN
CO...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NE. THIS MAY BE FOCUS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ACTIVITY WITH 1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE AVAILABLE. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD AS TERRAIN AND TROUGH INTERACT.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN.
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA SWINGS INTO CENTRAL CANADA...SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS FLATTENED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF
STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH STRONG SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP.

DRIER NW FLOW WILL KEEP EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE OVER NE WY/BLKHLS. COOLER TEMPS MON/TUE WILL
BECOME MORE SEASONAL THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF
STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. IFR VSBY DUE
TO FG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING ACROSS SCNTRL SD. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
BLKHLS AREA THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 031138
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
538 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. SOME
BR/FU FROM EAST CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN NE...SHOULD LAST UNTIL
EARLY MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT AS DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE BEINGS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MT
WHICH IS TAPPING INTO WEAK MUCAPE FOR ISOLATED -SHRA/TS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA THIS MORNING. IT MAY BE
FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING -TSRA AS 0.5-1KJ/KG MLCAPE
DEVELOPS ALONG WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN. SURFACE REFLECTION OF
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO BE WEAK AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
EXPANDED LOW POPS FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
SHORTWAVE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED WITH TYPICAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF WEAK LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E ADVECTION. WITH
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR EAST AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
IT...LEFT FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISE TO SEE ACCAS.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST/SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE EAST.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO EASTERN
CO...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NE. THIS MAY BE FOCUS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ACTIVITY WITH 1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE AVAILABLE. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD AS TERRAIN AND TROUGH INTERACT.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN.
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA SWINGS INTO CENTRAL CANADA...SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS FLATTENED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF
STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH STRONG SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP.

DRIER NW FLOW WILL KEEP EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE OVER NE WY/BLKHLS. COOLER TEMPS MON/TUE WILL
BECOME MORE SEASONAL THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF
STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. IFR VSBY DUE
TO FG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING ACROSS SCNTRL SD. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
BLKHLS AREA THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 031138
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
538 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. SOME
BR/FU FROM EAST CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN NE...SHOULD LAST UNTIL
EARLY MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT AS DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE BEINGS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MT
WHICH IS TAPPING INTO WEAK MUCAPE FOR ISOLATED -SHRA/TS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA THIS MORNING. IT MAY BE
FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING -TSRA AS 0.5-1KJ/KG MLCAPE
DEVELOPS ALONG WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN. SURFACE REFLECTION OF
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO BE WEAK AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
EXPANDED LOW POPS FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
SHORTWAVE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED WITH TYPICAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF WEAK LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E ADVECTION. WITH
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR EAST AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
IT...LEFT FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISE TO SEE ACCAS.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST/SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE EAST.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO EASTERN
CO...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NE. THIS MAY BE FOCUS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ACTIVITY WITH 1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE AVAILABLE. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD AS TERRAIN AND TROUGH INTERACT.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN.
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA SWINGS INTO CENTRAL CANADA...SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS FLATTENED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF
STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH STRONG SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP.

DRIER NW FLOW WILL KEEP EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE OVER NE WY/BLKHLS. COOLER TEMPS MON/TUE WILL
BECOME MORE SEASONAL THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF
STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. IFR VSBY DUE
TO FG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING ACROSS SCNTRL SD. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
BLKHLS AREA THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KABR 031129 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
629 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NAM SUGGESTS
PROFILES ARE VERY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE HOWEVER...SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER/RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CAMS POINT TO THE EASTERN
CWA AS BEST LOCATION FOR ANY CONVECTION.

A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED
ACCAS SHOWER...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WARM...PROFILES MAY REMAIN MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES EXIST EARLY SUNDAY AM AS A
20 TO 30KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCAPE VALUES TOP
OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG.

A SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS NEAR THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO SPLIT THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WITH LOWS FORMING TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. WE WILL BE LEFT
WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY ALONG A SURFACE TROF SITUATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WITH UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KM MLCAPE. PROFILES
SUGGEST SHEAR WILL BE WEAK HOWEVER...RESIDING IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...WHERE AN AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION MAY RESIDE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUN DESPITE
BEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA. 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT...AROUND +8 TO +12C...AHEAD OF
THE WEAK FRONT. THERE MAY BE GOOD MIXING IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S...HOWEVER
THAT DEPENDS ON THE COVERAGE OF POST FRONTAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED AS A COLD FRONT
TRAILS DOWN FROM A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CANADIAN LOW. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A LOT OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SFC FRONT WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT.

ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR/IFR VSBY IN FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 15Z. THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE



000
FXUS63 KABR 031129 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
629 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NAM SUGGESTS
PROFILES ARE VERY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE HOWEVER...SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER/RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CAMS POINT TO THE EASTERN
CWA AS BEST LOCATION FOR ANY CONVECTION.

A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED
ACCAS SHOWER...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WARM...PROFILES MAY REMAIN MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES EXIST EARLY SUNDAY AM AS A
20 TO 30KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCAPE VALUES TOP
OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG.

A SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS NEAR THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO SPLIT THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WITH LOWS FORMING TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. WE WILL BE LEFT
WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY ALONG A SURFACE TROF SITUATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WITH UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KM MLCAPE. PROFILES
SUGGEST SHEAR WILL BE WEAK HOWEVER...RESIDING IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...WHERE AN AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION MAY RESIDE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUN DESPITE
BEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA. 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT...AROUND +8 TO +12C...AHEAD OF
THE WEAK FRONT. THERE MAY BE GOOD MIXING IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S...HOWEVER
THAT DEPENDS ON THE COVERAGE OF POST FRONTAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED AS A COLD FRONT
TRAILS DOWN FROM A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CANADIAN LOW. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A LOT OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SFC FRONT WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT.

ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR/IFR VSBY IN FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 15Z. THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KFSD 031105
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
605 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...LEADING TO A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT IT DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TONIGHT...THOUGH THINK THAT FOG WILL
BE LESS LIKELY WITH A MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. LOWS ARE LOOKING TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE SUMMER DAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF
ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND HIGHS IN THE 80S. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME
HUMIDITY DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IS NOT ALL THAT
OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BOTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY.

SUNDAY STILL POSES THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CREEP INTO THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND
DECENT SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MEAN AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY IT SHOULD FEEL VERY SUMMER LIKE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE HEAT
INDEX COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 90S IN THE WESTERN CWA JUST AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. WHILE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOT COMPLETELY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SO HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL KEEP RELATIVELY FAST WEST OR
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HINTS THAT
MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY BUT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
A WAVE WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WHILE THE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE IN PLACE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
AROUND TO ALLOW SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME SEVERE
WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES STILL PLANNING ON
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGH MAINLY FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AREAS OF LIFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM



000
FXUS63 KFSD 031105
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
605 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...LEADING TO A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT IT DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TONIGHT...THOUGH THINK THAT FOG WILL
BE LESS LIKELY WITH A MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. LOWS ARE LOOKING TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE SUMMER DAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF
ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND HIGHS IN THE 80S. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME
HUMIDITY DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IS NOT ALL THAT
OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BOTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY.

SUNDAY STILL POSES THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CREEP INTO THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND
DECENT SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MEAN AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY IT SHOULD FEEL VERY SUMMER LIKE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE HEAT
INDEX COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 90S IN THE WESTERN CWA JUST AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. WHILE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOT COMPLETELY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SO HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL KEEP RELATIVELY FAST WEST OR
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HINTS THAT
MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY BUT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
A WAVE WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WHILE THE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE IN PLACE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
AROUND TO ALLOW SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME SEVERE
WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES STILL PLANNING ON
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGH MAINLY FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AREAS OF LIFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 031105
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
605 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...LEADING TO A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT IT DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TONIGHT...THOUGH THINK THAT FOG WILL
BE LESS LIKELY WITH A MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. LOWS ARE LOOKING TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE SUMMER DAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF
ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND HIGHS IN THE 80S. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME
HUMIDITY DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IS NOT ALL THAT
OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BOTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY.

SUNDAY STILL POSES THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CREEP INTO THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND
DECENT SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MEAN AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY IT SHOULD FEEL VERY SUMMER LIKE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE HEAT
INDEX COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 90S IN THE WESTERN CWA JUST AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. WHILE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOT COMPLETELY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SO HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL KEEP RELATIVELY FAST WEST OR
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HINTS THAT
MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY BUT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
A WAVE WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WHILE THE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE IN PLACE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
AROUND TO ALLOW SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME SEVERE
WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES STILL PLANNING ON
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGH MAINLY FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AREAS OF LIFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 031105
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
605 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...LEADING TO A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT IT DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TONIGHT...THOUGH THINK THAT FOG WILL
BE LESS LIKELY WITH A MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. LOWS ARE LOOKING TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE SUMMER DAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF
ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND HIGHS IN THE 80S. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME
HUMIDITY DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IS NOT ALL THAT
OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BOTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY.

SUNDAY STILL POSES THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CREEP INTO THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND
DECENT SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MEAN AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY IT SHOULD FEEL VERY SUMMER LIKE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE HEAT
INDEX COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 90S IN THE WESTERN CWA JUST AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. WHILE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOT COMPLETELY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SO HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL KEEP RELATIVELY FAST WEST OR
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HINTS THAT
MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY BUT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
A WAVE WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WHILE THE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE IN PLACE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
AROUND TO ALLOW SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME SEVERE
WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES STILL PLANNING ON
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGH MAINLY FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AREAS OF LIFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM



000
FXUS63 KABR 030919
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
419 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NAM SUGGESTS
PROFILES ARE VERY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE HOWEVER...SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER/RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CAMS POINT TO THE EASTERN
CWA AS BEST LOCATION FOR ANY CONVECTION.

A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED
ACCAS SHOWER...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WARM...PROFILES MAY REMAIN MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES EXIST EARLY SUNDAY AM AS A
20 TO 30KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCAPE VALUES TOP
OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG.

A SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS NEAR THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO SPLIT THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WITH LOWS FORMING TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. WE WILL BE LEFT
WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY ALONG A SURFACE TROF SITUATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WITH UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KM MLCAPE. PROFILES
SUGGEST SHEAR WILL BE WEAK HOWEVER...RESIDING IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...WHERE AN AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION MAY RESIDE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUN DESPITE
BEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA. 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT...AROUND +8 TO +12C...AHEAD OF
THE WEAK FRONT. THERE MAY BE GOOD MIXING IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S...HOWEVER
THAT DEPENDS ON THE COVERAGE OF POST FRONTAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED AS A COLD FRONT
TRAILS DOWN FROM A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CANADIAN LOW. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A LOT OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SFC FRONT WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT.

ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE



000
FXUS63 KUNR 030840
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
240 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. SOME
BR/FU FROM EAST CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN NE...SHOULD LAST UNTIL
EARLY MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT AS DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE BEINGS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MT
WHICH IS TAPPING INTO WEAK MUCAPE FOR ISOLATED -SHRA/TS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA THIS MORNING. IT MAY BE
FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING -TSRA AS 0.5-1KJ/KG MLCAPE
DEVELOPS ALONG WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN. SURFACE REFLECTION OF
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO BE WEAK AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
EXPANDED LOW POPS FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
SHORTWAVE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED WITH TYPICAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF WEAK LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E ADVECTION. WITH
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR EAST AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
IT...LEFT FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISE TO SEE ACCAS.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST/SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE EAST.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO EASTERN
CO...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NE. THIS MAY BE FOCUS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ACTIVITY WITH 1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE AVAILABLE. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD AS TERRAIN AND TROUGH INTERACT.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN.
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA SWINGS INTO CENTRAL CANADA...SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS FLATTENED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF
STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH STRONG SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP.

DRIER NW FLOW WILL KEEP EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE OVER NE WY/BLKHLS. COOLER TEMPS MON/TUE WILL
BECOME MORE SEASONAL THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF
STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
BLKHLS AREA THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 030840
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
240 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. SOME
BR/FU FROM EAST CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN NE...SHOULD LAST UNTIL
EARLY MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT AS DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE BEINGS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MT
WHICH IS TAPPING INTO WEAK MUCAPE FOR ISOLATED -SHRA/TS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA THIS MORNING. IT MAY BE
FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING -TSRA AS 0.5-1KJ/KG MLCAPE
DEVELOPS ALONG WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN. SURFACE REFLECTION OF
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO BE WEAK AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
EXPANDED LOW POPS FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
SHORTWAVE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED WITH TYPICAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF WEAK LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E ADVECTION. WITH
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR EAST AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
IT...LEFT FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISE TO SEE ACCAS.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST/SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE EAST.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO EASTERN
CO...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NE. THIS MAY BE FOCUS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ACTIVITY WITH 1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE AVAILABLE. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD AS TERRAIN AND TROUGH INTERACT.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN.
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA SWINGS INTO CENTRAL CANADA...SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS FLATTENED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF
STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH STRONG SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP.

DRIER NW FLOW WILL KEEP EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE OVER NE WY/BLKHLS. COOLER TEMPS MON/TUE WILL
BECOME MORE SEASONAL THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF
STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
BLKHLS AREA THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 030840
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
240 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. SOME
BR/FU FROM EAST CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN NE...SHOULD LAST UNTIL
EARLY MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT AS DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE BEINGS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MT
WHICH IS TAPPING INTO WEAK MUCAPE FOR ISOLATED -SHRA/TS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA THIS MORNING. IT MAY BE
FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING -TSRA AS 0.5-1KJ/KG MLCAPE
DEVELOPS ALONG WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN. SURFACE REFLECTION OF
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO BE WEAK AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
EXPANDED LOW POPS FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
SHORTWAVE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED WITH TYPICAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF WEAK LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E ADVECTION. WITH
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR EAST AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
IT...LEFT FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISE TO SEE ACCAS.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST/SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE EAST.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO EASTERN
CO...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NE. THIS MAY BE FOCUS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ACTIVITY WITH 1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE AVAILABLE. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD AS TERRAIN AND TROUGH INTERACT.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN.
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA SWINGS INTO CENTRAL CANADA...SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS FLATTENED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF
STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH STRONG SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP.

DRIER NW FLOW WILL KEEP EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE OVER NE WY/BLKHLS. COOLER TEMPS MON/TUE WILL
BECOME MORE SEASONAL THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF
STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
BLKHLS AREA THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KUNR 030840
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
240 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. SOME
BR/FU FROM EAST CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN NE...SHOULD LAST UNTIL
EARLY MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT AS DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE BEINGS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MT
WHICH IS TAPPING INTO WEAK MUCAPE FOR ISOLATED -SHRA/TS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA THIS MORNING. IT MAY BE
FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING -TSRA AS 0.5-1KJ/KG MLCAPE
DEVELOPS ALONG WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN. SURFACE REFLECTION OF
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO BE WEAK AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
EXPANDED LOW POPS FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
SHORTWAVE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED WITH TYPICAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF WEAK LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E ADVECTION. WITH
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR EAST AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
IT...LEFT FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISE TO SEE ACCAS.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE WEST/SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE EAST.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO EASTERN
CO...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NE. THIS MAY BE FOCUS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ACTIVITY WITH 1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE AVAILABLE. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD AS TERRAIN AND TROUGH INTERACT.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH 25-75J/KG MLCIN.
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA SWINGS INTO CENTRAL CANADA...SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS FLATTENED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF
STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH STRONG SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP.

DRIER NW FLOW WILL KEEP EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE OVER NE WY/BLKHLS. COOLER TEMPS MON/TUE WILL
BECOME MORE SEASONAL THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF
STORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
BLKHLS AREA THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



000
FXUS63 KFSD 030809
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...LEADING TO A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT IT DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TONIGHT...THOUGH THINK THAT FOG WILL
BE LESS LIKELY WITH A MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. LOWS ARE LOOKING TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE SUMMER DAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF
ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND HIGHS IN THE 80S. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME
HUMIDITY DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IS NOT ALL THAT
OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BOTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY.

SUNDAY STILL POSES THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CREEP INTO THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND
DECENT SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MEAN AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY IT SHOULD FEEL VERY SUMMER LIKE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE HEAT
INDEX COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 90S IN THE WESTERN CWA JUST AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. WHILE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOT COMPLETELY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SO HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL KEEP RELATIVELY FAST WEST OR
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HINTS THAT
MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY BUT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
A WAVE WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WHILE THE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE IN PLACE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
AROUND TO ALLOW SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME SEVERE
WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES STILL PLANNING ON
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGH MAINLY FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG DEVELOP
AFTER 08Z-09Z. WITH SHORT NIGHT...PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VISIBILITY MAY
ONLY LAST 2-3 HOURS...WITH LOWEST VISIBILITY IN 10Z-13Z WINDOW. WILL
HOLD AT MVFR VISIBILITY RANGE FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 14Z
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. COULD
SEE SMOKE LAYER ALOFT EXPAND OVER THE AREA AGAIN...THOUGH LEVEL OF
SMOKE LAYER UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 030809
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...LEADING TO A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT IT DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TONIGHT...THOUGH THINK THAT FOG WILL
BE LESS LIKELY WITH A MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. LOWS ARE LOOKING TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE SUMMER DAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF
ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND HIGHS IN THE 80S. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME
HUMIDITY DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IS NOT ALL THAT
OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BOTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY.

SUNDAY STILL POSES THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CREEP INTO THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND
DECENT SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MEAN AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY IT SHOULD FEEL VERY SUMMER LIKE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE HEAT
INDEX COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 90S IN THE WESTERN CWA JUST AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. WHILE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOT COMPLETELY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SO HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL KEEP RELATIVELY FAST WEST OR
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HINTS THAT
MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY BUT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
A WAVE WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WHILE THE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE IN PLACE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
AROUND TO ALLOW SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME SEVERE
WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES STILL PLANNING ON
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGH MAINLY FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG DEVELOP
AFTER 08Z-09Z. WITH SHORT NIGHT...PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VISIBILITY MAY
ONLY LAST 2-3 HOURS...WITH LOWEST VISIBILITY IN 10Z-13Z WINDOW. WILL
HOLD AT MVFR VISIBILITY RANGE FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 14Z
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. COULD
SEE SMOKE LAYER ALOFT EXPAND OVER THE AREA AGAIN...THOUGH LEVEL OF
SMOKE LAYER UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 030809
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...LEADING TO A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT IT DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TONIGHT...THOUGH THINK THAT FOG WILL
BE LESS LIKELY WITH A MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. LOWS ARE LOOKING TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE SUMMER DAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF
ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND HIGHS IN THE 80S. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME
HUMIDITY DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IS NOT ALL THAT
OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BOTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY.

SUNDAY STILL POSES THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CREEP INTO THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND
DECENT SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MEAN AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY IT SHOULD FEEL VERY SUMMER LIKE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE HEAT
INDEX COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 90S IN THE WESTERN CWA JUST AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. WHILE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOT COMPLETELY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SO HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL KEEP RELATIVELY FAST WEST OR
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HINTS THAT
MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY BUT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
A WAVE WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WHILE THE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE IN PLACE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
AROUND TO ALLOW SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME SEVERE
WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES STILL PLANNING ON
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGH MAINLY FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG DEVELOP
AFTER 08Z-09Z. WITH SHORT NIGHT...PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VISIBILITY MAY
ONLY LAST 2-3 HOURS...WITH LOWEST VISIBILITY IN 10Z-13Z WINDOW. WILL
HOLD AT MVFR VISIBILITY RANGE FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 14Z
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. COULD
SEE SMOKE LAYER ALOFT EXPAND OVER THE AREA AGAIN...THOUGH LEVEL OF
SMOKE LAYER UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KUNR 030532
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1132 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
INTO OUR CWA FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. CLEAR SKIES FROM THIS
MORNING HAVE ALLOWED THE SURFACE TO HEAT UP AND ERODE THE SMALL
CAP THAT WAS IN PLACE...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WHERE THE STRONGEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALIGN. AFTER THE SUN
SETS THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIE DOWN.

THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BLACK HILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. BY FRIDAY
EVENING...ANY THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER DOWN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
BLACK HILLS AREA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT COULD FUEL MORE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD. STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND A CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT...BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM.

FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL...WHICH WOULD
BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL
KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH VIS
RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO AROUND 6 MILES AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...SCT-
ISOLD SHRA/TS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE BLACK HILLS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 030532
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1132 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
INTO OUR CWA FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. CLEAR SKIES FROM THIS
MORNING HAVE ALLOWED THE SURFACE TO HEAT UP AND ERODE THE SMALL
CAP THAT WAS IN PLACE...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WHERE THE STRONGEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALIGN. AFTER THE SUN
SETS THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIE DOWN.

THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BLACK HILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. BY FRIDAY
EVENING...ANY THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER DOWN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
BLACK HILLS AREA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT COULD FUEL MORE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD. STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND A CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT...BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM.

FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL...WHICH WOULD
BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL
KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH VIS
RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO AROUND 6 MILES AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...SCT-
ISOLD SHRA/TS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE BLACK HILLS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 030532
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1132 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
INTO OUR CWA FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. CLEAR SKIES FROM THIS
MORNING HAVE ALLOWED THE SURFACE TO HEAT UP AND ERODE THE SMALL
CAP THAT WAS IN PLACE...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WHERE THE STRONGEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALIGN. AFTER THE SUN
SETS THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIE DOWN.

THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BLACK HILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. BY FRIDAY
EVENING...ANY THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER DOWN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
BLACK HILLS AREA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT COULD FUEL MORE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD. STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND A CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT...BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM.

FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL...WHICH WOULD
BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL
KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH VIS
RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO AROUND 6 MILES AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...SCT-
ISOLD SHRA/TS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE BLACK HILLS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 030532
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1132 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
INTO OUR CWA FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. CLEAR SKIES FROM THIS
MORNING HAVE ALLOWED THE SURFACE TO HEAT UP AND ERODE THE SMALL
CAP THAT WAS IN PLACE...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WHERE THE STRONGEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALIGN. AFTER THE SUN
SETS THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIE DOWN.

THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BLACK HILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. BY FRIDAY
EVENING...ANY THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER DOWN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
BLACK HILLS AREA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT COULD FUEL MORE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD. STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND A CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT...BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM.

FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL...WHICH WOULD
BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL
KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH VIS
RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO AROUND 6 MILES AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...SCT-
ISOLD SHRA/TS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE BLACK HILLS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KABR 030526 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

PRECIPITATION HAS PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA.
SMOKE LAYER FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES HAS GOTTEN PRETTY THICK
ACROSS THE NORTH WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...WITH VSBYS AT KMBG DOWN
TO 3SM. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF SMOKE INTO THE
FORECAST. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS PRODUCING ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A
PORTION OF THE AREA. HI-RES MODELS...INCLUDING THE HOPWRF...SEEM TO
BE HANDLING THE SITUATION FAIRLY WELL. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING PRIOR TO SUNSET. MOST OF
THE REGION WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND PEAK HEATING COULD
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I-29
CORRIDOR.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING A LOT OF
CONVECTION. VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN 700-500 MB COULD BE THE REASON FOR
LITTLE QPF. A 30 T0 40 KNOT LLJ DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCT
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS.  THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD/SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/ WILL CONSIST OF AN ADVANCING
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY A HEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THERE WILL BE COPIOUS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY A
HEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL UNTIL YOU GET WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.  NONETHELESS
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK LIKE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
ANY SVR WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM.  MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY UNDER INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE.  MORE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP AND LLM RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...WISE



000
FXUS63 KABR 030526 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

PRECIPITATION HAS PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA.
SMOKE LAYER FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES HAS GOTTEN PRETTY THICK
ACROSS THE NORTH WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...WITH VSBYS AT KMBG DOWN
TO 3SM. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF SMOKE INTO THE
FORECAST. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS PRODUCING ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A
PORTION OF THE AREA. HI-RES MODELS...INCLUDING THE HOPWRF...SEEM TO
BE HANDLING THE SITUATION FAIRLY WELL. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING PRIOR TO SUNSET. MOST OF
THE REGION WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND PEAK HEATING COULD
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I-29
CORRIDOR.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING A LOT OF
CONVECTION. VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN 700-500 MB COULD BE THE REASON FOR
LITTLE QPF. A 30 T0 40 KNOT LLJ DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCT
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS.  THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD/SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/ WILL CONSIST OF AN ADVANCING
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY A HEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THERE WILL BE COPIOUS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY A
HEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL UNTIL YOU GET WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.  NONETHELESS
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK LIKE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
ANY SVR WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM.  MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY UNDER INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE.  MORE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP AND LLM RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...WISE



000
FXUS63 KABR 030526 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

PRECIPITATION HAS PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA.
SMOKE LAYER FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES HAS GOTTEN PRETTY THICK
ACROSS THE NORTH WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...WITH VSBYS AT KMBG DOWN
TO 3SM. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF SMOKE INTO THE
FORECAST. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS PRODUCING ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A
PORTION OF THE AREA. HI-RES MODELS...INCLUDING THE HOPWRF...SEEM TO
BE HANDLING THE SITUATION FAIRLY WELL. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING PRIOR TO SUNSET. MOST OF
THE REGION WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND PEAK HEATING COULD
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I-29
CORRIDOR.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING A LOT OF
CONVECTION. VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN 700-500 MB COULD BE THE REASON FOR
LITTLE QPF. A 30 T0 40 KNOT LLJ DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCT
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS.  THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD/SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/ WILL CONSIST OF AN ADVANCING
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY A HEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THERE WILL BE COPIOUS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY A
HEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL UNTIL YOU GET WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.  NONETHELESS
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK LIKE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
ANY SVR WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM.  MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY UNDER INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE.  MORE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP AND LLM RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...WISE



000
FXUS63 KABR 030526 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

PRECIPITATION HAS PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA.
SMOKE LAYER FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES HAS GOTTEN PRETTY THICK
ACROSS THE NORTH WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...WITH VSBYS AT KMBG DOWN
TO 3SM. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF SMOKE INTO THE
FORECAST. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS PRODUCING ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A
PORTION OF THE AREA. HI-RES MODELS...INCLUDING THE HOPWRF...SEEM TO
BE HANDLING THE SITUATION FAIRLY WELL. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING PRIOR TO SUNSET. MOST OF
THE REGION WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND PEAK HEATING COULD
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I-29
CORRIDOR.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING A LOT OF
CONVECTION. VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN 700-500 MB COULD BE THE REASON FOR
LITTLE QPF. A 30 T0 40 KNOT LLJ DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCT
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS.  THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD/SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/ WILL CONSIST OF AN ADVANCING
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY A HEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THERE WILL BE COPIOUS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY A
HEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL UNTIL YOU GET WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.  NONETHELESS
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK LIKE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
ANY SVR WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM.  MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY UNDER INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE.  MORE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP AND LLM RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...WISE



000
FXUS63 KFSD 030405
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EXPECT LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA TO CONTINUE TO WANE
AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS THE SHORTWAVES EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTH...EXPECT SKIES TO
CLEAR.  COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHERE THE RAIN FELL
TODAY...MAINLY ALONG THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG FROM 11-13Z.  EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND
BURN OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.  WILL LIKELY BE SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS...BUT HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF ANY POPS TOMORROW WITH LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN.  WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...SHOULD BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO GET ANYTHING TO DEVELOP.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED FOCUSES ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT PRIMARILY SUNDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION DURING THE THE 4TH OF
JULY. MODEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER. HOWEVER...NO STRONG FOCUS MECHANISM AT THE SFC
IS EVIDENT. NEVERTHELESS...WILL INCLUDE A LOW END POP FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OUT WEST.

BY SUNDAY...A MUCH STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIP INTO THE
NORTHERN CONUS...SLIDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE DAKOTAS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO HAVE A FEW DAYBREAK
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS EML LIFTS NORTHWARD. BY THE
AFTERNOON...SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE...WITH 2-
3K MLCAPE VALUES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE BEST FOCUS FOR
FORCING SHOULD BE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CWA. SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING AS AND UPR JET STREAK ENTERS
THE PLAINS...BUT FOR THE ONSET OF THE EVENT REMAINS A BIT ON THE
LOW SIDE. NEVERTHELESS...WOULD ANTICIPATE A SVR WEATHER
RISK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING...LEAVING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MID-WEEK.  A MINOR SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE...QUESTION
THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIP CHANCES MAY ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST. STRONGER RETURN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO AREA AMIDST A MYRIAD OF MID-LVL WAVES ZIPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG DEVELOP
AFTER 08Z-09Z. WITH SHORT NIGHT...PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VISIBILITY MAY
ONLY LAST 2-3 HOURS...WITH LOWEST VISIBILITY IN 10Z-13Z WINDOW. WILL
HOLD AT MVFR VISIBILITY RANGE FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 14Z
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. COULD
SEE SMOKE LAYER ALOFT EXPAND OVER THE AREA AGAIN...THOUGH LEVEL OF
SMOKE LAYER UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 030405
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EXPECT LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA TO CONTINUE TO WANE
AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS THE SHORTWAVES EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTH...EXPECT SKIES TO
CLEAR.  COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHERE THE RAIN FELL
TODAY...MAINLY ALONG THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG FROM 11-13Z.  EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND
BURN OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.  WILL LIKELY BE SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS...BUT HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF ANY POPS TOMORROW WITH LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN.  WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...SHOULD BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO GET ANYTHING TO DEVELOP.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED FOCUSES ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT PRIMARILY SUNDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION DURING THE THE 4TH OF
JULY. MODEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER. HOWEVER...NO STRONG FOCUS MECHANISM AT THE SFC
IS EVIDENT. NEVERTHELESS...WILL INCLUDE A LOW END POP FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OUT WEST.

BY SUNDAY...A MUCH STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIP INTO THE
NORTHERN CONUS...SLIDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE DAKOTAS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO HAVE A FEW DAYBREAK
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS EML LIFTS NORTHWARD. BY THE
AFTERNOON...SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE...WITH 2-
3K MLCAPE VALUES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE BEST FOCUS FOR
FORCING SHOULD BE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CWA. SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING AS AND UPR JET STREAK ENTERS
THE PLAINS...BUT FOR THE ONSET OF THE EVENT REMAINS A BIT ON THE
LOW SIDE. NEVERTHELESS...WOULD ANTICIPATE A SVR WEATHER
RISK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING...LEAVING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MID-WEEK.  A MINOR SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE...QUESTION
THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIP CHANCES MAY ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST. STRONGER RETURN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO AREA AMIDST A MYRIAD OF MID-LVL WAVES ZIPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG DEVELOP
AFTER 08Z-09Z. WITH SHORT NIGHT...PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VISIBILITY MAY
ONLY LAST 2-3 HOURS...WITH LOWEST VISIBILITY IN 10Z-13Z WINDOW. WILL
HOLD AT MVFR VISIBILITY RANGE FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 14Z
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. COULD
SEE SMOKE LAYER ALOFT EXPAND OVER THE AREA AGAIN...THOUGH LEVEL OF
SMOKE LAYER UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 030405
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EXPECT LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA TO CONTINUE TO WANE
AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS THE SHORTWAVES EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTH...EXPECT SKIES TO
CLEAR.  COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHERE THE RAIN FELL
TODAY...MAINLY ALONG THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG FROM 11-13Z.  EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND
BURN OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.  WILL LIKELY BE SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS...BUT HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF ANY POPS TOMORROW WITH LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN.  WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...SHOULD BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO GET ANYTHING TO DEVELOP.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED FOCUSES ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT PRIMARILY SUNDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION DURING THE THE 4TH OF
JULY. MODEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER. HOWEVER...NO STRONG FOCUS MECHANISM AT THE SFC
IS EVIDENT. NEVERTHELESS...WILL INCLUDE A LOW END POP FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OUT WEST.

BY SUNDAY...A MUCH STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIP INTO THE
NORTHERN CONUS...SLIDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE DAKOTAS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO HAVE A FEW DAYBREAK
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS EML LIFTS NORTHWARD. BY THE
AFTERNOON...SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE...WITH 2-
3K MLCAPE VALUES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE BEST FOCUS FOR
FORCING SHOULD BE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CWA. SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING AS AND UPR JET STREAK ENTERS
THE PLAINS...BUT FOR THE ONSET OF THE EVENT REMAINS A BIT ON THE
LOW SIDE. NEVERTHELESS...WOULD ANTICIPATE A SVR WEATHER
RISK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING...LEAVING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MID-WEEK.  A MINOR SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE...QUESTION
THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIP CHANCES MAY ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST. STRONGER RETURN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO AREA AMIDST A MYRIAD OF MID-LVL WAVES ZIPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG DEVELOP
AFTER 08Z-09Z. WITH SHORT NIGHT...PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VISIBILITY MAY
ONLY LAST 2-3 HOURS...WITH LOWEST VISIBILITY IN 10Z-13Z WINDOW. WILL
HOLD AT MVFR VISIBILITY RANGE FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 14Z
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. COULD
SEE SMOKE LAYER ALOFT EXPAND OVER THE AREA AGAIN...THOUGH LEVEL OF
SMOKE LAYER UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 030405
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EXPECT LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA TO CONTINUE TO WANE
AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS THE SHORTWAVES EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTH...EXPECT SKIES TO
CLEAR.  COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHERE THE RAIN FELL
TODAY...MAINLY ALONG THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG FROM 11-13Z.  EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND
BURN OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.  WILL LIKELY BE SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS...BUT HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF ANY POPS TOMORROW WITH LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN.  WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...SHOULD BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO GET ANYTHING TO DEVELOP.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED FOCUSES ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT PRIMARILY SUNDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION DURING THE THE 4TH OF
JULY. MODEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER. HOWEVER...NO STRONG FOCUS MECHANISM AT THE SFC
IS EVIDENT. NEVERTHELESS...WILL INCLUDE A LOW END POP FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OUT WEST.

BY SUNDAY...A MUCH STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIP INTO THE
NORTHERN CONUS...SLIDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE DAKOTAS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO HAVE A FEW DAYBREAK
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS EML LIFTS NORTHWARD. BY THE
AFTERNOON...SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE...WITH 2-
3K MLCAPE VALUES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE BEST FOCUS FOR
FORCING SHOULD BE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CWA. SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING AS AND UPR JET STREAK ENTERS
THE PLAINS...BUT FOR THE ONSET OF THE EVENT REMAINS A BIT ON THE
LOW SIDE. NEVERTHELESS...WOULD ANTICIPATE A SVR WEATHER
RISK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING...LEAVING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MID-WEEK.  A MINOR SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE...QUESTION
THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIP CHANCES MAY ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST. STRONGER RETURN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO AREA AMIDST A MYRIAD OF MID-LVL WAVES ZIPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG DEVELOP
AFTER 08Z-09Z. WITH SHORT NIGHT...PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VISIBILITY MAY
ONLY LAST 2-3 HOURS...WITH LOWEST VISIBILITY IN 10Z-13Z WINDOW. WILL
HOLD AT MVFR VISIBILITY RANGE FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 14Z
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. COULD
SEE SMOKE LAYER ALOFT EXPAND OVER THE AREA AGAIN...THOUGH LEVEL OF
SMOKE LAYER UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KFSD 030405
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EXPECT LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA TO CONTINUE TO WANE
AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS THE SHORTWAVES EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTH...EXPECT SKIES TO
CLEAR.  COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHERE THE RAIN FELL
TODAY...MAINLY ALONG THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG FROM 11-13Z.  EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND
BURN OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.  WILL LIKELY BE SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS...BUT HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF ANY POPS TOMORROW WITH LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN.  WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...SHOULD BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO GET ANYTHING TO DEVELOP.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED FOCUSES ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT PRIMARILY SUNDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION DURING THE THE 4TH OF
JULY. MODEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER. HOWEVER...NO STRONG FOCUS MECHANISM AT THE SFC
IS EVIDENT. NEVERTHELESS...WILL INCLUDE A LOW END POP FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OUT WEST.

BY SUNDAY...A MUCH STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIP INTO THE
NORTHERN CONUS...SLIDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE DAKOTAS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO HAVE A FEW DAYBREAK
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS EML LIFTS NORTHWARD. BY THE
AFTERNOON...SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE...WITH 2-
3K MLCAPE VALUES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE BEST FOCUS FOR
FORCING SHOULD BE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CWA. SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING AS AND UPR JET STREAK ENTERS
THE PLAINS...BUT FOR THE ONSET OF THE EVENT REMAINS A BIT ON THE
LOW SIDE. NEVERTHELESS...WOULD ANTICIPATE A SVR WEATHER
RISK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING...LEAVING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MID-WEEK.  A MINOR SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE...QUESTION
THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIP CHANCES MAY ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST. STRONGER RETURN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO AREA AMIDST A MYRIAD OF MID-LVL WAVES ZIPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG DEVELOP
AFTER 08Z-09Z. WITH SHORT NIGHT...PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VISIBILITY MAY
ONLY LAST 2-3 HOURS...WITH LOWEST VISIBILITY IN 10Z-13Z WINDOW. WILL
HOLD AT MVFR VISIBILITY RANGE FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 14Z
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. COULD
SEE SMOKE LAYER ALOFT EXPAND OVER THE AREA AGAIN...THOUGH LEVEL OF
SMOKE LAYER UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KABR 030217 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
917 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

PRECIPITATION HAS PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA.
SMOKE LAYER FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES HAS GOTTEN PRETTY THICK
ACROSS THE NORTH WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...WITH VSBYS AT KMBG DOWN
TO 3SM. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF SMOKE INTO THE
FORECAST. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS PRODUCING ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A
PORTION OF THE AREA. HI-RES MODELS...INCLUDING THE HOPWRF...SEEM TO
BE HANDLING THE SITUATION FAIRLY WELL. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING PRIOR TO SUNSET. MOST OF
THE REGION WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND PEAK HEATING COULD
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I-29
CORRIDOR.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING A LOT OF
CONVECTION. VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN 700-500 MB COULD BE THE REASON FOR
LITTLE QPF. A 30 T0 40 KNOT LLJ DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCT
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS.  THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD/SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/ WILL CONSIST OF AN ADVANCING
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY A HEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THERE WILL BE COPIOUS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY A
HEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL UNTIL YOU GET WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.  NONETHELESS
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK LIKE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
ANY SVR WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM.  MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY UNDER INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE.  MORE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP AND LLM RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING
ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KABR 030217 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
917 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

PRECIPITATION HAS PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA.
SMOKE LAYER FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES HAS GOTTEN PRETTY THICK
ACROSS THE NORTH WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...WITH VSBYS AT KMBG DOWN
TO 3SM. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF SMOKE INTO THE
FORECAST. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS PRODUCING ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A
PORTION OF THE AREA. HI-RES MODELS...INCLUDING THE HOPWRF...SEEM TO
BE HANDLING THE SITUATION FAIRLY WELL. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING PRIOR TO SUNSET. MOST OF
THE REGION WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND PEAK HEATING COULD
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I-29
CORRIDOR.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING A LOT OF
CONVECTION. VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN 700-500 MB COULD BE THE REASON FOR
LITTLE QPF. A 30 T0 40 KNOT LLJ DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCT
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS.  THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD/SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/ WILL CONSIST OF AN ADVANCING
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY A HEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THERE WILL BE COPIOUS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY A
HEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL UNTIL YOU GET WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.  NONETHELESS
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK LIKE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
ANY SVR WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM.  MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY UNDER INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE.  MORE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP AND LLM RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING
ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN



000
FXUS63 KABR 030217 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
917 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

PRECIPITATION HAS PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA.
SMOKE LAYER FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES HAS GOTTEN PRETTY THICK
ACROSS THE NORTH WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...WITH VSBYS AT KMBG DOWN
TO 3SM. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF SMOKE INTO THE
FORECAST. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS PRODUCING ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A
PORTION OF THE AREA. HI-RES MODELS...INCLUDING THE HOPWRF...SEEM TO
BE HANDLING THE SITUATION FAIRLY WELL. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING PRIOR TO SUNSET. MOST OF
THE REGION WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND PEAK HEATING COULD
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I-29
CORRIDOR.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING A LOT OF
CONVECTION. VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN 700-500 MB COULD BE THE REASON FOR
LITTLE QPF. A 30 T0 40 KNOT LLJ DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCT
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS.  THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD/SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/ WILL CONSIST OF AN ADVANCING
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY A HEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THERE WILL BE COPIOUS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY A
HEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL UNTIL YOU GET WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.  NONETHELESS
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK LIKE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
ANY SVR WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM.  MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY UNDER INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE.  MORE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP AND LLM RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING
ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN




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