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000
FXUS63 KABR 011145
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
645 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE
REGION TODAY LEAVING BEHIND DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THAT SAID...A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA COULD INITIATE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA
AROUND MIDDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA...WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THIS CWA WILL ONLY
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION IS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS LIKELY IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THE FRONT. MUCH STRONGER WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY THANKS TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION. BUFFER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PEAK GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. FRIDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SOME MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING RECORD TO NEAR LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN
CWA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FACING THE EXTENDED IS JUST HOW LOW TEMPS WILL
FALL FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS COLDEST AIR YET CRASHING IN
BEHIND EXITING LOW. BY 06Z SATURDAY...NAM/GFS AND EC SHOW 850-700HPA
THICKNESS VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1512-1520...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPS BELOW FREEZING. THAT SAID...ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT WAA
BEGINNING BY 12Z SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A QUESTION ABOUT
WINDS...WITH SFC TO 700MB LAYERS LINKED. WILL MIXING PLAY A ROLE
IN LOWS? LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW TEMP SPREAD OF 22 TO
27 DEGREES WITH OPERATIONAL GFS BEING THE LOW MEMBER AT 22. EC
925HPA TEMPS 12Z SATURDAY ARE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...WHICH IN
THIS CASE MAKES THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FROST AND FREEZE.
SUPERBLEND VALUES SEEMED REASONABLE GIVEN UNCERTAINITY AND LEFT
ALONE.

OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN RATHER QUIET FOR THE EXTENDED WITH NW FLOW
DOMINATING THINGS AT 500MB. MINOR WAVES RUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT DIFFICULT TO HANG ANYTHING BUT PASSING CLOUDS ON THEM
ATTM. TEMPS TRY TO MAKE A SLOW REBOUND BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LOOK FOR A NARROW RIBBON OF MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE I-29
CORRIDOR AREA THROUGH 16Z...IMPACTING THE KATY TERMINAL. OTW LOOK
FOR VFR CONDS THROUGH THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY BY THE END OF THE DAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 011145
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
645 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE
REGION TODAY LEAVING BEHIND DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THAT SAID...A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA COULD INITIATE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA
AROUND MIDDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA...WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THIS CWA WILL ONLY
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION IS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS LIKELY IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THE FRONT. MUCH STRONGER WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY THANKS TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION. BUFFER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PEAK GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. FRIDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SOME MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING RECORD TO NEAR LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN
CWA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FACING THE EXTENDED IS JUST HOW LOW TEMPS WILL
FALL FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS COLDEST AIR YET CRASHING IN
BEHIND EXITING LOW. BY 06Z SATURDAY...NAM/GFS AND EC SHOW 850-700HPA
THICKNESS VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1512-1520...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPS BELOW FREEZING. THAT SAID...ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT WAA
BEGINNING BY 12Z SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A QUESTION ABOUT
WINDS...WITH SFC TO 700MB LAYERS LINKED. WILL MIXING PLAY A ROLE
IN LOWS? LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW TEMP SPREAD OF 22 TO
27 DEGREES WITH OPERATIONAL GFS BEING THE LOW MEMBER AT 22. EC
925HPA TEMPS 12Z SATURDAY ARE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...WHICH IN
THIS CASE MAKES THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FROST AND FREEZE.
SUPERBLEND VALUES SEEMED REASONABLE GIVEN UNCERTAINITY AND LEFT
ALONE.

OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN RATHER QUIET FOR THE EXTENDED WITH NW FLOW
DOMINATING THINGS AT 500MB. MINOR WAVES RUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT DIFFICULT TO HANG ANYTHING BUT PASSING CLOUDS ON THEM
ATTM. TEMPS TRY TO MAKE A SLOW REBOUND BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LOOK FOR A NARROW RIBBON OF MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE I-29
CORRIDOR AREA THROUGH 16Z...IMPACTING THE KATY TERMINAL. OTW LOOK
FOR VFR CONDS THROUGH THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY BY THE END OF THE DAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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000
FXUS63 KFSD 011133
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
633 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

STRATUS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS WARM AND MOIST
AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD. WITH SFC LOW MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH INTO
NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS STALLED WITH THE FRONT LINGERING JUST WEST OF HURON AND
MITCHELL. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...DEW POINTS HAVE CREPT BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S LEADING TO A BIT OF FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO LEVELED OFF AND WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING ENE
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.  IMPRESSIVE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. AS THIS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL
AREA...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY
DAYBREAK...AND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATIFORM REGION OF THE
DEVELOPING MCS SHOULD SKIRT THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.  FURTHER
WEST...BEGINNING TO SEE LIGHT ECHOES DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THESE ECHOES ARE LIKELY TIED TO A WEAK
CORRIDOR OF 850:700 MB WARM ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
FORCE THE FRONT EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.  A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LOW IN
COVERAGE.  RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA GIVEN
INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY INTERESTING AS A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE IMPACTS OUR AREA. THIS SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST
OF THE ROCKIES IN THE IDAHO AND UTAH AREA. THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. INITIALLY THE
LOW LEVELS ARE DRY DUE TO A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FETCH OF SURFACE
AIR. THEREFORE EARLY IN THE DAY...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS FIRMLY PLANTED ALONG AN AXIS IN OUR WEST...WITH
850MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EASTERN NEB AND SOUTHEAST SD...MOISTURE
INCREASES DRAMATICALLY NEAR 850MB...WITH THE 850MB AND 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS BECOMING MORE JUXTAPOSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
THEREFORE LIKELY POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A VERMILLION SD TO WINDOM MN LINE. ONE
FINAL NOTE ABOUT THE PRECIP...WENT AHEAD AND TOOK OUT THE MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDER. DOUBLE CHECKED BOTH THE NAM AND GFS STABILITY
PARAMETERS AND AT LEAST ON THE 00Z RUN...ELEVATED MU CAPES BASED
IN THE 925-850MB LAYER WERE VERY THIN...ON THE ORDER OF 200 J/KG
OR LESS IN NORTHWEST IA. FURTHERMORE...ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX
VALUES WERE POSITIVE UNTIL GETTING TOWARDS OMAHA. CONCERNING
HIGHS...THEY ARE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD
COVER. MIXING DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY HIGH EITHER. MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF YANKTON TO MARSHALL...WENT WITH THE COOLER RAW GUIDANCE
VALUES AND THEN DECREASED A FEW LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
THERE. THE WESTERN ZONES STILL LOOK A BIT MORE MILD WITH SOME
PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD UPPER LOW DIVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM CANADA WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT. PREFERRED THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING OF THE NAM
AND ECMWF WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS. IT APPEARS THE CRUX
OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE IS WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS PRODUCING A WELL MIXED LOWER
ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...SIDED WITH THE
WARMER BIAS CORRECTED VALUES FOR LOWS.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A FOUL DAY WEATHERWISE. STRATUS IS LIKELY
TO FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NOT
SURE IF OUR MO RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES WILL STRATUS IN THAT FAR
SOUTH...BUT BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT THAT THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL. IN TIME...A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. BY 18Z...ALL MODELS SHOW 35 TO 45 KNOTS AT 925MB...AND 40
TO 55 KNOTS AT 850MB. THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT ARE ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER OUR WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY MIX HIGHER
DUE TO SOME POSSIBLE PARTIAL SUNSHINE...WITH MIXING TO 850MB IN
OUR WEST QUITE LIKELY. UNDER THE STRATUS...MIXING TO 925-900MB
WILL PROBABLY HOLD EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE STRONG WINDS
IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CHILLY...
FEELING WORSE WITH THE WIND. WENT WITH STRAIGHT RAW MODEL VALUES
AS MIXING EVEN AS HIGH AS 850MB WILL NOT REACH 50 DEGREES IN MANY
OF OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE IS STILL A DEGREE OF MIXING DESPITE THE
WINDS DECREASING DRAMATICALLY. BUT THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
BREEZE TO HELP KEEP THE LOWS FROM TANKING TOO HARD. NOT SURE IF A
FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BECAUSE WE MAY NOT FROST DUE TO THE
DRY AIR AND WIND. WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S THOUGH...IT IS
POSSIBLE A FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IN THE FUTURE...BUT AT ANY
RATE WILL MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO ALSO.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE COLD UPPER LOW WHICH MOVES
ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DEEPENS EVEN MORE EAST
OF HERE. THEN THE CENTER OF THE LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA ACTUALLY
RETROGRADES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ONTARIO BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. SO MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE...BUT WOULD NOT BE
AT ALL SURPRISED IF WE WILL NEED TO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF
SUNDAYS HIGHS IF THE COOLER ECMWF IS CLOSER TO BEING CORRECT. BY
TUESDAY THE REVERSE HAPPENS...AS THE GFS KEEPS THE COLD UPPER
LOW/TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH THE ECMWF
BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. THEREFORE THE ECMWF IS
MUCH MILDER WITH THE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY THAN THE GFS WILL BE.
EXPERIENCE TELLS ME THAT THE GFS MAY BE BETTER IN THIS SITUATION
AS ONCE THESE LARGE...COLD UPPER TROUGHS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...THEY USUALLY DO NOT DISAPPEAR AS FAST AS
THE ECMWF HAS ADVERTISED. THEREFORE KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO THE GFS
ON TUESDAY. LEFT THE EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW AS NOT SEEING A LOT IN
THE WAY OF ORGANIZED PRECIP YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE ABUNDANT FOR THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE KSUX TAF SITE. ALTHOUGH HARD TO SEE ON THE IR FOG SATELLITE
CURVE DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS...OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT KSUX IS ON
THE EDGE OF OF STRATUS...RANGING ANYWHERE FROM LIFR TO LOWER END
VFR CLOSE BY. FOR NOW...OPTED TO GO PREDOMINANT IFR THROUGH THE
SUNRISE HOURS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR CONDITIONS THAT
GET WORSE. AFTER SUNRISE...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD TAKEOVER FOR THAT SITE...BEFORE POSSIBLY BURNING
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SURFACE WINDS AND WINDS JUST OFF
THE SURFACE ARE LIGHT TODAY...SO MIXING POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED.
BUT BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN OVERALL TREND OF HIGHER
CEILINGS UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN IOWA...AT
LEAST WHEN SOME OF THEIR FOG BURNS OFF IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

FURTHER NORTH...KFSD RUNS THE RISK OF SOME IFR CEILINGS THROUGH
SUNRISE. THEN MVFR SHOULD TAKEOVER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...
POSSIBLY BREAKING UP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. KHON APPEARS TO BE ON
THE EDGE OF STRATUS RIGHT NOW...AND THEIR WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SO FAIRLY CONFIDENT THEY SHOULD GO
VFR LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KFSD 011133
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
633 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

STRATUS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS WARM AND MOIST
AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD. WITH SFC LOW MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH INTO
NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS STALLED WITH THE FRONT LINGERING JUST WEST OF HURON AND
MITCHELL. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...DEW POINTS HAVE CREPT BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S LEADING TO A BIT OF FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO LEVELED OFF AND WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING ENE
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.  IMPRESSIVE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. AS THIS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL
AREA...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY
DAYBREAK...AND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATIFORM REGION OF THE
DEVELOPING MCS SHOULD SKIRT THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.  FURTHER
WEST...BEGINNING TO SEE LIGHT ECHOES DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THESE ECHOES ARE LIKELY TIED TO A WEAK
CORRIDOR OF 850:700 MB WARM ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
FORCE THE FRONT EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.  A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LOW IN
COVERAGE.  RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA GIVEN
INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY INTERESTING AS A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE IMPACTS OUR AREA. THIS SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST
OF THE ROCKIES IN THE IDAHO AND UTAH AREA. THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. INITIALLY THE
LOW LEVELS ARE DRY DUE TO A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FETCH OF SURFACE
AIR. THEREFORE EARLY IN THE DAY...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS FIRMLY PLANTED ALONG AN AXIS IN OUR WEST...WITH
850MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EASTERN NEB AND SOUTHEAST SD...MOISTURE
INCREASES DRAMATICALLY NEAR 850MB...WITH THE 850MB AND 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS BECOMING MORE JUXTAPOSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
THEREFORE LIKELY POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A VERMILLION SD TO WINDOM MN LINE. ONE
FINAL NOTE ABOUT THE PRECIP...WENT AHEAD AND TOOK OUT THE MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDER. DOUBLE CHECKED BOTH THE NAM AND GFS STABILITY
PARAMETERS AND AT LEAST ON THE 00Z RUN...ELEVATED MU CAPES BASED
IN THE 925-850MB LAYER WERE VERY THIN...ON THE ORDER OF 200 J/KG
OR LESS IN NORTHWEST IA. FURTHERMORE...ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX
VALUES WERE POSITIVE UNTIL GETTING TOWARDS OMAHA. CONCERNING
HIGHS...THEY ARE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD
COVER. MIXING DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY HIGH EITHER. MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF YANKTON TO MARSHALL...WENT WITH THE COOLER RAW GUIDANCE
VALUES AND THEN DECREASED A FEW LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
THERE. THE WESTERN ZONES STILL LOOK A BIT MORE MILD WITH SOME
PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD UPPER LOW DIVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM CANADA WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT. PREFERRED THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING OF THE NAM
AND ECMWF WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS. IT APPEARS THE CRUX
OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE IS WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS PRODUCING A WELL MIXED LOWER
ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...SIDED WITH THE
WARMER BIAS CORRECTED VALUES FOR LOWS.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A FOUL DAY WEATHERWISE. STRATUS IS LIKELY
TO FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NOT
SURE IF OUR MO RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES WILL STRATUS IN THAT FAR
SOUTH...BUT BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT THAT THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL. IN TIME...A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. BY 18Z...ALL MODELS SHOW 35 TO 45 KNOTS AT 925MB...AND 40
TO 55 KNOTS AT 850MB. THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT ARE ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER OUR WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY MIX HIGHER
DUE TO SOME POSSIBLE PARTIAL SUNSHINE...WITH MIXING TO 850MB IN
OUR WEST QUITE LIKELY. UNDER THE STRATUS...MIXING TO 925-900MB
WILL PROBABLY HOLD EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE STRONG WINDS
IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CHILLY...
FEELING WORSE WITH THE WIND. WENT WITH STRAIGHT RAW MODEL VALUES
AS MIXING EVEN AS HIGH AS 850MB WILL NOT REACH 50 DEGREES IN MANY
OF OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE IS STILL A DEGREE OF MIXING DESPITE THE
WINDS DECREASING DRAMATICALLY. BUT THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
BREEZE TO HELP KEEP THE LOWS FROM TANKING TOO HARD. NOT SURE IF A
FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BECAUSE WE MAY NOT FROST DUE TO THE
DRY AIR AND WIND. WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S THOUGH...IT IS
POSSIBLE A FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IN THE FUTURE...BUT AT ANY
RATE WILL MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO ALSO.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE COLD UPPER LOW WHICH MOVES
ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DEEPENS EVEN MORE EAST
OF HERE. THEN THE CENTER OF THE LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA ACTUALLY
RETROGRADES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ONTARIO BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. SO MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE...BUT WOULD NOT BE
AT ALL SURPRISED IF WE WILL NEED TO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF
SUNDAYS HIGHS IF THE COOLER ECMWF IS CLOSER TO BEING CORRECT. BY
TUESDAY THE REVERSE HAPPENS...AS THE GFS KEEPS THE COLD UPPER
LOW/TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH THE ECMWF
BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. THEREFORE THE ECMWF IS
MUCH MILDER WITH THE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY THAN THE GFS WILL BE.
EXPERIENCE TELLS ME THAT THE GFS MAY BE BETTER IN THIS SITUATION
AS ONCE THESE LARGE...COLD UPPER TROUGHS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...THEY USUALLY DO NOT DISAPPEAR AS FAST AS
THE ECMWF HAS ADVERTISED. THEREFORE KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO THE GFS
ON TUESDAY. LEFT THE EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW AS NOT SEEING A LOT IN
THE WAY OF ORGANIZED PRECIP YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE ABUNDANT FOR THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE KSUX TAF SITE. ALTHOUGH HARD TO SEE ON THE IR FOG SATELLITE
CURVE DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS...OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT KSUX IS ON
THE EDGE OF OF STRATUS...RANGING ANYWHERE FROM LIFR TO LOWER END
VFR CLOSE BY. FOR NOW...OPTED TO GO PREDOMINANT IFR THROUGH THE
SUNRISE HOURS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR CONDITIONS THAT
GET WORSE. AFTER SUNRISE...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD TAKEOVER FOR THAT SITE...BEFORE POSSIBLY BURNING
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SURFACE WINDS AND WINDS JUST OFF
THE SURFACE ARE LIGHT TODAY...SO MIXING POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED.
BUT BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN OVERALL TREND OF HIGHER
CEILINGS UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN IOWA...AT
LEAST WHEN SOME OF THEIR FOG BURNS OFF IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

FURTHER NORTH...KFSD RUNS THE RISK OF SOME IFR CEILINGS THROUGH
SUNRISE. THEN MVFR SHOULD TAKEOVER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...
POSSIBLY BREAKING UP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. KHON APPEARS TO BE ON
THE EDGE OF STRATUS RIGHT NOW...AND THEIR WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SO FAIRLY CONFIDENT THEY SHOULD GO
VFR LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...MJ



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KUNR 011046
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
446 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND WITH UPPER LOW
SPINNING ON TOP...WITH SYSTEM MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST PER SATELLITE
LOOPS. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF INTEREST OVER WESTERN MT/ID PER
WATER VAPOUR. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY ROUNDING BASE OF
MEAN TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC
FLOW AND WEAK FORCING WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A FEW
-SHRA OVER THE CWA TODAY...SHIFTING EAST/SOUTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE TODAY/TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL RACE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY 00Z FRIDAY DRIVING A SHARP COLD FRONT INTO THE
CWA. A FEW -SHRA MAY OCCUR WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN EFFECT
WILL BE RATHER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 30-40KT 850-700MB
WINDS. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS ON THE SD PLAINS TO ACCOUNT...AND MAY
NEED SOME SORT OF WIND HEADLINES WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. IT/LL BE
COLD ENOUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR A
FEW -SHRASN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...AND PROBABLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR FROST/FREEZE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH EXITS INTO THE MIDWEST. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED AS THE OVERALL
PROGRESS SLOWS TO A CRAWL. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FRIDAY...BUT THEN WARMER AIR
ADVECTS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS. OCCASIONAL
UPPER WAVES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL BRING
BREEZY DAYS TO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS FRIDAY AND
PERHAPS SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTIER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY...THEN SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE BLACK HILLS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS
THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KUNR 011046
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
446 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND WITH UPPER LOW
SPINNING ON TOP...WITH SYSTEM MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST PER SATELLITE
LOOPS. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF INTEREST OVER WESTERN MT/ID PER
WATER VAPOUR. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY ROUNDING BASE OF
MEAN TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC
FLOW AND WEAK FORCING WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A FEW
-SHRA OVER THE CWA TODAY...SHIFTING EAST/SOUTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE TODAY/TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL RACE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY 00Z FRIDAY DRIVING A SHARP COLD FRONT INTO THE
CWA. A FEW -SHRA MAY OCCUR WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN EFFECT
WILL BE RATHER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 30-40KT 850-700MB
WINDS. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS ON THE SD PLAINS TO ACCOUNT...AND MAY
NEED SOME SORT OF WIND HEADLINES WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. IT/LL BE
COLD ENOUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR A
FEW -SHRASN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...AND PROBABLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR FROST/FREEZE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH EXITS INTO THE MIDWEST. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED AS THE OVERALL
PROGRESS SLOWS TO A CRAWL. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FRIDAY...BUT THEN WARMER AIR
ADVECTS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS. OCCASIONAL
UPPER WAVES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL BRING
BREEZY DAYS TO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS FRIDAY AND
PERHAPS SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTIER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY...THEN SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE BLACK HILLS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS
THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KUNR 011046
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
446 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND WITH UPPER LOW
SPINNING ON TOP...WITH SYSTEM MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST PER SATELLITE
LOOPS. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF INTEREST OVER WESTERN MT/ID PER
WATER VAPOUR. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY ROUNDING BASE OF
MEAN TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC
FLOW AND WEAK FORCING WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A FEW
-SHRA OVER THE CWA TODAY...SHIFTING EAST/SOUTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE TODAY/TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL RACE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY 00Z FRIDAY DRIVING A SHARP COLD FRONT INTO THE
CWA. A FEW -SHRA MAY OCCUR WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN EFFECT
WILL BE RATHER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 30-40KT 850-700MB
WINDS. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS ON THE SD PLAINS TO ACCOUNT...AND MAY
NEED SOME SORT OF WIND HEADLINES WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. IT/LL BE
COLD ENOUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR A
FEW -SHRASN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...AND PROBABLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR FROST/FREEZE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH EXITS INTO THE MIDWEST. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED AS THE OVERALL
PROGRESS SLOWS TO A CRAWL. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FRIDAY...BUT THEN WARMER AIR
ADVECTS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS. OCCASIONAL
UPPER WAVES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL BRING
BREEZY DAYS TO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS FRIDAY AND
PERHAPS SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTIER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY...THEN SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE BLACK HILLS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS
THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KUNR 011046
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
446 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND WITH UPPER LOW
SPINNING ON TOP...WITH SYSTEM MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST PER SATELLITE
LOOPS. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF INTEREST OVER WESTERN MT/ID PER
WATER VAPOUR. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY ROUNDING BASE OF
MEAN TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC
FLOW AND WEAK FORCING WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A FEW
-SHRA OVER THE CWA TODAY...SHIFTING EAST/SOUTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE TODAY/TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL RACE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY 00Z FRIDAY DRIVING A SHARP COLD FRONT INTO THE
CWA. A FEW -SHRA MAY OCCUR WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN EFFECT
WILL BE RATHER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 30-40KT 850-700MB
WINDS. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS ON THE SD PLAINS TO ACCOUNT...AND MAY
NEED SOME SORT OF WIND HEADLINES WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. IT/LL BE
COLD ENOUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR A
FEW -SHRASN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...AND PROBABLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR FROST/FREEZE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH EXITS INTO THE MIDWEST. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED AS THE OVERALL
PROGRESS SLOWS TO A CRAWL. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FRIDAY...BUT THEN WARMER AIR
ADVECTS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS. OCCASIONAL
UPPER WAVES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL BRING
BREEZY DAYS TO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS FRIDAY AND
PERHAPS SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTIER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY...THEN SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE BLACK HILLS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS
THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KABR 010839
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
339 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE
REGION TODAY LEAVING BEHIND DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THAT SAID...A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA COULD INITIATE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA
AROUND MIDDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA...WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THIS CWA WILL ONLY
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION IS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS LIKELY IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THE FRONT. MUCH STRONGER WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY THANKS TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION. BUFFER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PEAK GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. FRIDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SOME MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING RECORD TO NEAR LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN
CWA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FACING THE EXTENDED IS JUST HOW LOW TEMPS WILL
FALL FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS COLDEST AIR YET CRASHING IN
BEHIND EXITING LOW. BY 06Z SATURDAY...NAM/GFS AND EC SHOW 850-700HPA
THICKNESS VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1512-1520...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPS BELOW FREEZING. THAT SAID...ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT WAA
BEGINNING BY 12Z SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A QUESTION ABOUT
WINDS...WITH SFC TO 700MB LAYERS LINKED. WILL MIXING PLAY A ROLE
IN LOWS? LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW TEMP SPREAD OF 22 TO
27 DEGREES WITH OPERATIONAL GFS BEING THE LOW MEMBER AT 22. EC
925HPA TEMPS 12Z SATURDAY ARE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...WHICH IN
THIS CASE MAKES THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FROST AND FREEZE.
SUPERBLEND VALUES SEEMED REASONABLE GIVEN UNCERTAINITY AND LEFT
ALONE.

OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN RATHER QUIET FOR THE EXTENDED WITH NW FLOW
DOMINATING THINGS AT 500MB. MINOR WAVES RUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT DIFFICULT TO HANG ANYTHING BUT PASSING CLOUDS ON THEM
ATTM. TEMPS TRY TO MAKE A SLOW REBOUND BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE KATY WHERE SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. KMBG WILL ALSO BE SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS THROUGH
09Z BEFORE BECOMING SCT-BKN VFR CIGS. LOOK FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 010839
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
339 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE
REGION TODAY LEAVING BEHIND DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THAT SAID...A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA COULD INITIATE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA
AROUND MIDDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA...WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THIS CWA WILL ONLY
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION IS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS LIKELY IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THE FRONT. MUCH STRONGER WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY THANKS TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION. BUFFER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PEAK GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. FRIDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SOME MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING RECORD TO NEAR LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN
CWA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FACING THE EXTENDED IS JUST HOW LOW TEMPS WILL
FALL FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS COLDEST AIR YET CRASHING IN
BEHIND EXITING LOW. BY 06Z SATURDAY...NAM/GFS AND EC SHOW 850-700HPA
THICKNESS VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1512-1520...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPS BELOW FREEZING. THAT SAID...ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT WAA
BEGINNING BY 12Z SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A QUESTION ABOUT
WINDS...WITH SFC TO 700MB LAYERS LINKED. WILL MIXING PLAY A ROLE
IN LOWS? LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW TEMP SPREAD OF 22 TO
27 DEGREES WITH OPERATIONAL GFS BEING THE LOW MEMBER AT 22. EC
925HPA TEMPS 12Z SATURDAY ARE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...WHICH IN
THIS CASE MAKES THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FROST AND FREEZE.
SUPERBLEND VALUES SEEMED REASONABLE GIVEN UNCERTAINITY AND LEFT
ALONE.

OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN RATHER QUIET FOR THE EXTENDED WITH NW FLOW
DOMINATING THINGS AT 500MB. MINOR WAVES RUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT DIFFICULT TO HANG ANYTHING BUT PASSING CLOUDS ON THEM
ATTM. TEMPS TRY TO MAKE A SLOW REBOUND BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE KATY WHERE SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. KMBG WILL ALSO BE SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS THROUGH
09Z BEFORE BECOMING SCT-BKN VFR CIGS. LOOK FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




000
FXUS63 KUNR 010837
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
237 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND WITH UPPER LOW
SPINNING ON TOP...WITH SYSTEM MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST PER SATELLITE
LOOPS. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF INTEREST OVER WESTERN MT/ID PER
WATER VAPOUR. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY ROUNDING BASE OF
MEAN TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC
FLOW AND WEAK FORCING WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A FEW
-SHRA OVER THE CWA TODAY...SHIFTING EAST/SOUTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE TODAY/TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL RACE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY 00Z FRIDAY DRIVING A SHARP COLD FRONT INTO THE
CWA. A FEW -SHRA MAY OCCUR WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN EFFECT
WILL BE RATHER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 30-40KT 850-700MB
WINDS. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS ON THE SD PLAINS TO ACCOUNT...AND MAY
NEED SOME SORT OF WIND HEADLINES WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. IT/LL BE
COLD ENOUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR A
FEW -SHRASN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...AND PROBABLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR FROST/FREEZE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH EXITS INTO THE MIDWEST. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED AS THE OVERALL
PROGRESS SLOWS TO A CRAWL. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FRIDAY...BUT THEN WARMER AIR
ADVECTS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS. OCCASIONAL
UPPER WAVES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL BRING
BREEZY DAYS TO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS FRIDAY AND
PERHAPS SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTIER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY...THEN SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE BLACK HILLS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS
THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13





000
FXUS63 KFSD 010815
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
315 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

STRATUS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS WARM AND MOIST
AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD. WITH SFC LOW MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH INTO
NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS STALLED WITH THE FRONT LINGERING JUST WEST OF HURON AND
MITCHELL. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...DEW POINTS HAVE CREPT BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S LEADING TO A BIT OF FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO LEVELED OFF AND WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING ENE
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.  IMPRESSIVE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. AS THIS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL
AREA...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY
DAYBREAK...AND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATIFORM REGION OF THE
DEVELOPING MCS SHOULD SKIRT THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.  FURTHER
WEST...BEGINNING TO SEE LIGHT ECHOES DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THESE ECHOES ARE LIKELY TIED TO A WEAK
CORRIDOR OF 850:700 MB WARM ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
FORCE THE FRONT EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.  A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LOW IN
COVERAGE.  RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA GIVEN
INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY INTERESTING AS A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE IMPACTS OUR AREA. THIS SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST
OF THE ROCKIES IN THE IDAHO AND UTAH AREA. THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. INITIALLY THE
LOW LEVELS ARE DRY DUE TO A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FETCH OF SURFACE
AIR. THEREFORE EARLY IN THE DAY...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS FIRMLY PLANTED ALONG AN AXIS IN OUR WEST...WITH
850MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EASTERN NEB AND SOUTHEAST SD...MOISTURE
INCREASES DRAMATICALLY NEAR 850MB...WITH THE 850MB AND 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS BECOMING MORE JUXTAPOSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
THEREFORE LIKELY POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A VERMILLION SD TO WINDOM MN LINE. ONE
FINAL NOTE ABOUT THE PRECIP...WENT AHEAD AND TOOK OUT THE MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDER. DOUBLE CHECKED BOTH THE NAM AND GFS STABILITY
PARAMETERS AND AT LEAST ON THE 00Z RUN...ELEVATED MU CAPES BASED
IN THE 925-850MB LAYER WERE VERY THIN...ON THE ORDER OF 200 J/KG
OR LESS IN NORTHWEST IA. FURTHERMORE...ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX
VALUES WERE POSITIVE UNTIL GETTING TOWARDS OMAHA. CONCERNING
HIGHS...THEY ARE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD
COVER. MIXING DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY HIGH EITHER. MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF YANKTON TO MARSHALL...WENT WITH THE COOLER RAW GUIDANCE
VALUES AND THEN DECREASED A FEW LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
THERE. THE WESTERN ZONES STILL LOOK A BIT MORE MILD WITH SOME
PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD UPPER LOW DIVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM CANADA WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT. PREFERRED THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING OF THE NAM
AND ECMWF WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS. IT APPEARS THE CRUX
OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE IS WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS PRODUCING A WELL MIXED LOWER
ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...SIDED WITH THE
WARMER BIAS CORRECTED VALUES FOR LOWS.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A FOUL DAY WEATHERWISE. STRATUS IS LIKELY
TO FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NOT
SURE IF OUR MO RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES WILL STRATUS IN THAT FAR
SOUTH...BUT BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT THAT THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL. IN TIME...A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. BY 18Z...ALL MODELS SHOW 35 TO 45 KNOTS AT 925MB...AND 40
TO 55 KNOTS AT 850MB. THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT ARE ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER OUR WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY MIX HIGHER
DUE TO SOME POSSIBLE PARTIAL SUNSHINE...WITH MIXING TO 850MB IN
OUR WEST QUITE LIKELY. UNDER THE STRATUS...MIXING TO 925-900MB
WILL PROBABLY HOLD EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE STRONG WINDS
IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CHILLY...
FEELING WORSE WITH THE WIND. WENT WITH STRAIGHT RAW MODEL VALUES
AS MIXING EVEN AS HIGH AS 850MB WILL NOT REACH 50 DEGREES IN MANY
OF OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE IS STILL A DEGREE OF MIXING DESPITE THE
WINDS DECREASING DRAMATICALLY. BUT THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
BREEZE TO HELP KEEP THE LOWS FROM TANKING TOO HARD. NOT SURE IF A
FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BECAUSE WE MAY NOT FROST DUE TO THE
DRY AIR AND WIND. WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S THOUGH...IT IS
POSSIBLE A FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IN THE FUTURE...BUT AT ANY
RATE WILL MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO ALSO.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE COLD UPPER LOW WHICH MOVES
ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DEEPENS EVEN MORE EAST
OF HERE. THEN THE CENTER OF THE LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA ACTUALLY
RETROGRADES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ONTARIO BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. SO MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE...BUT WOULD NOT BE
AT ALL SURPRISED IF WE WILL NEED TO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF
SUNDAYS HIGHS IF THE COOLER ECMWF IS CLOSER TO BEING CORRECT. BY
TUESDAY THE REVERSE HAPPENS...AS THE GFS KEEPS THE COLD UPPER
LOW/TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH THE ECMWF
BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. THEREFORE THE ECMWF IS
MUCH MILDER WITH THE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY THAN THE GFS WILL BE.
EXPERIENCE TELLS ME THAT THE GFS MAY BE BETTER IN THIS SITUATION
AS ONCE THESE LARGE...COLD UPPER TROUGHS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...THEY USUALLY DO NOT DISAPPEAR AS FAST AS
THE ECMWF HAS ADVERTISED. THEREFORE KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO THE GFS
ON TUESDAY. LEFT THE EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW AS NOT SEEING A LOT IN
THE WAY OF ORGANIZED PRECIP YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WITH THE EARLIER STRONG SHORT WAVE LONG GONE TO THE NORTH...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD STEADILY SOLIDIFY AND SPREAD WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW QUICKLY THE BROKEN UP
STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL SOLIDIFY...BUT
EXPECT THAT EVENTUALLY ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT PERHAPS THE EXTREME
WESTERN EDGE WILL GET IT. WILL KEEP CEILINGS NEAR THE 1K FOOT
IFR/MVFR LINE. WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL FLOW HAVE KEPT THE FOG OUT
BUT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. A COMBINATION OF HEATING WITH
SOME DRYING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SHOULD BREAK UP THE LOW
CEILINGS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BACK TO VFR DURING THE 15Z TO 18Z
PERIOD. VFR SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH 02/06Z.

 MVFR...BARELY...TAKING THEM
DOWN TO OR CLOSE TO 1K FEET. HOWEVER...

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 010815
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
315 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

STRATUS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS WARM AND MOIST
AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD. WITH SFC LOW MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH INTO
NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS STALLED WITH THE FRONT LINGERING JUST WEST OF HURON AND
MITCHELL. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...DEW POINTS HAVE CREPT BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S LEADING TO A BIT OF FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO LEVELED OFF AND WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING ENE
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.  IMPRESSIVE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. AS THIS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL
AREA...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY
DAYBREAK...AND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATIFORM REGION OF THE
DEVELOPING MCS SHOULD SKIRT THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.  FURTHER
WEST...BEGINNING TO SEE LIGHT ECHOES DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THESE ECHOES ARE LIKELY TIED TO A WEAK
CORRIDOR OF 850:700 MB WARM ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
FORCE THE FRONT EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.  A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LOW IN
COVERAGE.  RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA GIVEN
INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY INTERESTING AS A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE IMPACTS OUR AREA. THIS SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST
OF THE ROCKIES IN THE IDAHO AND UTAH AREA. THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. INITIALLY THE
LOW LEVELS ARE DRY DUE TO A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FETCH OF SURFACE
AIR. THEREFORE EARLY IN THE DAY...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS FIRMLY PLANTED ALONG AN AXIS IN OUR WEST...WITH
850MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EASTERN NEB AND SOUTHEAST SD...MOISTURE
INCREASES DRAMATICALLY NEAR 850MB...WITH THE 850MB AND 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS BECOMING MORE JUXTAPOSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
THEREFORE LIKELY POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A VERMILLION SD TO WINDOM MN LINE. ONE
FINAL NOTE ABOUT THE PRECIP...WENT AHEAD AND TOOK OUT THE MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDER. DOUBLE CHECKED BOTH THE NAM AND GFS STABILITY
PARAMETERS AND AT LEAST ON THE 00Z RUN...ELEVATED MU CAPES BASED
IN THE 925-850MB LAYER WERE VERY THIN...ON THE ORDER OF 200 J/KG
OR LESS IN NORTHWEST IA. FURTHERMORE...ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX
VALUES WERE POSITIVE UNTIL GETTING TOWARDS OMAHA. CONCERNING
HIGHS...THEY ARE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD
COVER. MIXING DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY HIGH EITHER. MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF YANKTON TO MARSHALL...WENT WITH THE COOLER RAW GUIDANCE
VALUES AND THEN DECREASED A FEW LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
THERE. THE WESTERN ZONES STILL LOOK A BIT MORE MILD WITH SOME
PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD UPPER LOW DIVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM CANADA WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT. PREFERRED THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING OF THE NAM
AND ECMWF WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS. IT APPEARS THE CRUX
OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE IS WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS PRODUCING A WELL MIXED LOWER
ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...SIDED WITH THE
WARMER BIAS CORRECTED VALUES FOR LOWS.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A FOUL DAY WEATHERWISE. STRATUS IS LIKELY
TO FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NOT
SURE IF OUR MO RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES WILL STRATUS IN THAT FAR
SOUTH...BUT BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT THAT THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL. IN TIME...A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. BY 18Z...ALL MODELS SHOW 35 TO 45 KNOTS AT 925MB...AND 40
TO 55 KNOTS AT 850MB. THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT ARE ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER OUR WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY MIX HIGHER
DUE TO SOME POSSIBLE PARTIAL SUNSHINE...WITH MIXING TO 850MB IN
OUR WEST QUITE LIKELY. UNDER THE STRATUS...MIXING TO 925-900MB
WILL PROBABLY HOLD EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE STRONG WINDS
IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CHILLY...
FEELING WORSE WITH THE WIND. WENT WITH STRAIGHT RAW MODEL VALUES
AS MIXING EVEN AS HIGH AS 850MB WILL NOT REACH 50 DEGREES IN MANY
OF OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE IS STILL A DEGREE OF MIXING DESPITE THE
WINDS DECREASING DRAMATICALLY. BUT THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
BREEZE TO HELP KEEP THE LOWS FROM TANKING TOO HARD. NOT SURE IF A
FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BECAUSE WE MAY NOT FROST DUE TO THE
DRY AIR AND WIND. WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S THOUGH...IT IS
POSSIBLE A FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IN THE FUTURE...BUT AT ANY
RATE WILL MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO ALSO.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE COLD UPPER LOW WHICH MOVES
ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DEEPENS EVEN MORE EAST
OF HERE. THEN THE CENTER OF THE LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA ACTUALLY
RETROGRADES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ONTARIO BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. SO MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE...BUT WOULD NOT BE
AT ALL SURPRISED IF WE WILL NEED TO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF
SUNDAYS HIGHS IF THE COOLER ECMWF IS CLOSER TO BEING CORRECT. BY
TUESDAY THE REVERSE HAPPENS...AS THE GFS KEEPS THE COLD UPPER
LOW/TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH THE ECMWF
BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. THEREFORE THE ECMWF IS
MUCH MILDER WITH THE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY THAN THE GFS WILL BE.
EXPERIENCE TELLS ME THAT THE GFS MAY BE BETTER IN THIS SITUATION
AS ONCE THESE LARGE...COLD UPPER TROUGHS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...THEY USUALLY DO NOT DISAPPEAR AS FAST AS
THE ECMWF HAS ADVERTISED. THEREFORE KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO THE GFS
ON TUESDAY. LEFT THE EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW AS NOT SEEING A LOT IN
THE WAY OF ORGANIZED PRECIP YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WITH THE EARLIER STRONG SHORT WAVE LONG GONE TO THE NORTH...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD STEADILY SOLIDIFY AND SPREAD WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW QUICKLY THE BROKEN UP
STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL SOLIDIFY...BUT
EXPECT THAT EVENTUALLY ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT PERHAPS THE EXTREME
WESTERN EDGE WILL GET IT. WILL KEEP CEILINGS NEAR THE 1K FOOT
IFR/MVFR LINE. WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL FLOW HAVE KEPT THE FOG OUT
BUT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. A COMBINATION OF HEATING WITH
SOME DRYING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SHOULD BREAK UP THE LOW
CEILINGS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BACK TO VFR DURING THE 15Z TO 18Z
PERIOD. VFR SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH 02/06Z.

 MVFR...BARELY...TAKING THEM
DOWN TO OR CLOSE TO 1K FEET. HOWEVER...

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KABR 010530
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1230 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.PREVIOUS UPDATE DISCUSSION
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY SINCE WIND SPEEDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
CRITERIA. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH FURTHER
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN SD. THE THREAT FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA OVERNIGHT.
STARTING TO SHOW GOOD CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE DRY SLOT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SD. THIS MAY BE THE
BEGINNINGS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHWARD MOVING
DRY LINE. SURFACE BASED CAPE HAS RISEN TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG IN A
NARROW RIBBON IN ADVANCE OF THIS DRY LINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...SEVERE STORMS COULD STILL
OCCUR INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ALSO...EXPECT STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
SOUTHWEST WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LESS WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW TWO MORE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR REGION
BRINGING ONLY SOME CLOUD COVER TO OUR AREA. THE NEXT STRONGER
SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE FAR EASTERN CWA.
OTHERWISE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND BRINGING
SOME WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND AN EXITING TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN FACT...BY SATURDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOW 30S...AND DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE...AND DECOUPLING OF WINDS...TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN DROP TO
COLDER VALUES...WHICH COULD BE NEARING THE HARD FREEZE CATEGORY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN
TAKES HOLD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERHAPS SOME WEAK ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR
NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE KATY WHERE SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. KMBG WILL ALSO BE SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS THROUGH
09Z BEFORE BECOMING SCT-BKN VFR CIGS. LOOK FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 010530
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1230 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.PREVIOUS UPDATE DISCUSSION
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY SINCE WIND SPEEDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
CRITERIA. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH FURTHER
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN SD. THE THREAT FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA OVERNIGHT.
STARTING TO SHOW GOOD CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE DRY SLOT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SD. THIS MAY BE THE
BEGINNINGS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHWARD MOVING
DRY LINE. SURFACE BASED CAPE HAS RISEN TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG IN A
NARROW RIBBON IN ADVANCE OF THIS DRY LINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...SEVERE STORMS COULD STILL
OCCUR INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ALSO...EXPECT STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
SOUTHWEST WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LESS WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW TWO MORE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR REGION
BRINGING ONLY SOME CLOUD COVER TO OUR AREA. THE NEXT STRONGER
SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE FAR EASTERN CWA.
OTHERWISE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND BRINGING
SOME WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND AN EXITING TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN FACT...BY SATURDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOW 30S...AND DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE...AND DECOUPLING OF WINDS...TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN DROP TO
COLDER VALUES...WHICH COULD BE NEARING THE HARD FREEZE CATEGORY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN
TAKES HOLD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERHAPS SOME WEAK ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR
NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE KATY WHERE SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. KMBG WILL ALSO BE SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS THROUGH
09Z BEFORE BECOMING SCT-BKN VFR CIGS. LOOK FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 010516
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1116 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTHWARD. BANDS OF RAIN
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PRODUCED GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL...SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SO WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
THOSE AREAS UNTIL 600 PM MDT. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AS THE SFC PRESS GRADIENT SLACKENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF -SHRA OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROF AXIS CROSSES FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH DRIER
AIR BEHIND IT. A SMALL WAVE ON THE CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW MAY
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT WAVE IS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN US...WITH MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL ALSO SEE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
GUSTY WINDS...THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA AND
AGAIN SATURDAY BEHIND A TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE COOLING AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYMOING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...77







000
FXUS63 KUNR 010516
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1116 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTHWARD. BANDS OF RAIN
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PRODUCED GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL...SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SO WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
THOSE AREAS UNTIL 600 PM MDT. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AS THE SFC PRESS GRADIENT SLACKENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF -SHRA OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROF AXIS CROSSES FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH DRIER
AIR BEHIND IT. A SMALL WAVE ON THE CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW MAY
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT WAVE IS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN US...WITH MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL ALSO SEE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
GUSTY WINDS...THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA AND
AGAIN SATURDAY BEHIND A TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE COOLING AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYMOING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...77







000
FXUS63 KUNR 010516
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1116 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTHWARD. BANDS OF RAIN
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PRODUCED GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL...SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SO WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
THOSE AREAS UNTIL 600 PM MDT. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AS THE SFC PRESS GRADIENT SLACKENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF -SHRA OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROF AXIS CROSSES FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH DRIER
AIR BEHIND IT. A SMALL WAVE ON THE CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW MAY
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT WAVE IS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN US...WITH MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL ALSO SEE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
GUSTY WINDS...THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA AND
AGAIN SATURDAY BEHIND A TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE COOLING AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYMOING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...77







000
FXUS63 KUNR 010516
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1116 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTHWARD. BANDS OF RAIN
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PRODUCED GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL...SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SO WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
THOSE AREAS UNTIL 600 PM MDT. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AS THE SFC PRESS GRADIENT SLACKENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF -SHRA OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROF AXIS CROSSES FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH DRIER
AIR BEHIND IT. A SMALL WAVE ON THE CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW MAY
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT WAVE IS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN US...WITH MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL ALSO SEE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
GUSTY WINDS...THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA AND
AGAIN SATURDAY BEHIND A TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE COOLING AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYMOING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...77







000
FXUS63 KFSD 010344
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1044 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

POTENT VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED NEAR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AREA WHILE
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FROM A TRIPLE POINT TO THE NORTH OF CHAMBERLAIN. NARROW
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 CONTINUES
TO TRUDGE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. PER THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
HOWEVER...A MORE ROBUST AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS IS
LIFTING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND SHOULD SUSTAIN CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
WARM FRONT NUDGES NORTHWARD. WITH RATHER LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL
GO WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION AND NO SEVERE THREAT.

FURTHER WEST...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE DRY SLOT. DEWPOINTS ARE RAPIDLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. CLEARING HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IF
CUMULUS CAN GET GOING FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT ALONG THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME
LIKELY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS SMALL CORRIDOR WHERE VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS - MAINLY IN
BEADLE...SANBORN AND JERAULD COUNTIES - LOW TOPPED SEVERE SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR AND GUSTS TO 60 TO 65 MPH WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. NEAR THE BOUNDARIES/TRIPLE POINT
PARTICULARLY...SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AGAIN...WITH SUCH A NARROW AREA OF CONCERN...ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY.

HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD
COUNTIES...WITH GUSTY WINDS WORKING INTO GREGORY...CM AND BRULE
COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHAMBERLAIN GUSTED TO 44 MPH
EARLIER...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH IN THIS AREA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE PROGRESSION TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY IT SHOULD SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. AHEAD OF IT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST. SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST IOWA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT MUCH
CONVERGENCE OR SUPPORT ALONG THE FRONT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LOOK FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY START OUT DRY...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES LATER AT NIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
NORTH WITH THE NEXT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND HAVE THUS
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF....GFS
AND GEM...WITH THE 12Z NAM AN OUTLIER. THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER...SPREADING
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOCATIONS...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE ADJUSTING UP IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. MAINLY EXPECTING JUST RAIN...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER SOUTHEAST OF A YANKTON TO WINDOM LINE...WHERE SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY EXIST. WITH THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER...LOWERED HIGHS THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES...WITH 60S EXPECTED.

ONE MORE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN...AND REMAIN STRONG INTO FRIDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS
IS AN OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS FAVOR THE MORE SIMILAR
ECMWF...GEM AND NAM SOLUTIONS...WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS OUR AREA. SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE STRONGEST
WINDS SET UP...BUT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD
BE MET OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSER...WILL HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH AS WELL...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. ALL OF THIS COMBINED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S...WILL RESULT IN AN UNPLEASANT FRIDAY.

TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING AND LIGHTER WINDS. WILL BE A COLD NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CURRENTLY THINKING WINDS STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM REALLY TANKING...AND THUS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO LOW.
EITHER WAY 30S ARE LIKELY...BUT ASSUMING WINDS STAY UP...MOST OF THE
AREA PROBABLY WILL NOT HIT FREEZING...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE RIDGING SLOWLY BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK IN. ALTHOUGH A FEW WAVES PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY SLOW ITS PROGRESS. THIS MEANS THAT
WARMING WILL BE SLOWER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WITH SATURDAY IN THE
50S AND 60S...AND SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE GENERALLY LOW
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE WAVE TO OUR NORTHEAST GETS.
AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE HIGHS RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WITH THE EARLIER STRONG SHORT WAVE LONG GONE TO THE NORTH...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD STEADILY SOLIDIFY AND SPREAD WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW QUICKLY THE BROKEN UP
STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL SOLIDIFY...BUT
EXPECT THAT EVENTUALLY ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT PERHAPS THE EXTREME
WESTERN EDGE WILL GET IT. WILL KEEP CEILINGS NEAR THE 1K FOOT
IFR/MVFR LINE. WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL FLOW HAVE KEPT THE FOG OUT
BUT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. A COMBINATION OF HEATING WITH
SOME DRYING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SHOULD BREAK UP THE LOW
CEILINGS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BACK TO VFR DURING THE 15Z TO 18Z
PERIOD. VFR SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH 02/06Z.

 MVFR...BARELY...TAKING THEM
DOWN TO OR CLOSE TO 1K FEET. HOWEVER...

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 010344
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1044 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

POTENT VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED NEAR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AREA WHILE
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FROM A TRIPLE POINT TO THE NORTH OF CHAMBERLAIN. NARROW
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 CONTINUES
TO TRUDGE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. PER THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
HOWEVER...A MORE ROBUST AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS IS
LIFTING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND SHOULD SUSTAIN CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
WARM FRONT NUDGES NORTHWARD. WITH RATHER LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL
GO WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION AND NO SEVERE THREAT.

FURTHER WEST...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE DRY SLOT. DEWPOINTS ARE RAPIDLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. CLEARING HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IF
CUMULUS CAN GET GOING FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT ALONG THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME
LIKELY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS SMALL CORRIDOR WHERE VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS - MAINLY IN
BEADLE...SANBORN AND JERAULD COUNTIES - LOW TOPPED SEVERE SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR AND GUSTS TO 60 TO 65 MPH WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. NEAR THE BOUNDARIES/TRIPLE POINT
PARTICULARLY...SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AGAIN...WITH SUCH A NARROW AREA OF CONCERN...ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY.

HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD
COUNTIES...WITH GUSTY WINDS WORKING INTO GREGORY...CM AND BRULE
COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHAMBERLAIN GUSTED TO 44 MPH
EARLIER...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH IN THIS AREA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE PROGRESSION TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY IT SHOULD SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. AHEAD OF IT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST. SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST IOWA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT MUCH
CONVERGENCE OR SUPPORT ALONG THE FRONT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LOOK FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY START OUT DRY...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES LATER AT NIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
NORTH WITH THE NEXT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND HAVE THUS
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF....GFS
AND GEM...WITH THE 12Z NAM AN OUTLIER. THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER...SPREADING
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOCATIONS...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE ADJUSTING UP IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. MAINLY EXPECTING JUST RAIN...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER SOUTHEAST OF A YANKTON TO WINDOM LINE...WHERE SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY EXIST. WITH THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER...LOWERED HIGHS THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES...WITH 60S EXPECTED.

ONE MORE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN...AND REMAIN STRONG INTO FRIDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS
IS AN OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS FAVOR THE MORE SIMILAR
ECMWF...GEM AND NAM SOLUTIONS...WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS OUR AREA. SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE STRONGEST
WINDS SET UP...BUT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD
BE MET OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSER...WILL HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH AS WELL...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. ALL OF THIS COMBINED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S...WILL RESULT IN AN UNPLEASANT FRIDAY.

TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING AND LIGHTER WINDS. WILL BE A COLD NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CURRENTLY THINKING WINDS STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM REALLY TANKING...AND THUS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO LOW.
EITHER WAY 30S ARE LIKELY...BUT ASSUMING WINDS STAY UP...MOST OF THE
AREA PROBABLY WILL NOT HIT FREEZING...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE RIDGING SLOWLY BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK IN. ALTHOUGH A FEW WAVES PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY SLOW ITS PROGRESS. THIS MEANS THAT
WARMING WILL BE SLOWER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WITH SATURDAY IN THE
50S AND 60S...AND SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE GENERALLY LOW
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE WAVE TO OUR NORTHEAST GETS.
AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE HIGHS RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WITH THE EARLIER STRONG SHORT WAVE LONG GONE TO THE NORTH...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD STEADILY SOLIDIFY AND SPREAD WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW QUICKLY THE BROKEN UP
STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL SOLIDIFY...BUT
EXPECT THAT EVENTUALLY ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT PERHAPS THE EXTREME
WESTERN EDGE WILL GET IT. WILL KEEP CEILINGS NEAR THE 1K FOOT
IFR/MVFR LINE. WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL FLOW HAVE KEPT THE FOG OUT
BUT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. A COMBINATION OF HEATING WITH
SOME DRYING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SHOULD BREAK UP THE LOW
CEILINGS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BACK TO VFR DURING THE 15Z TO 18Z
PERIOD. VFR SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH 02/06Z.

 MVFR...BARELY...TAKING THEM
DOWN TO OR CLOSE TO 1K FEET. HOWEVER...

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KUNR 010234
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
834 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTH INTO CANADA...WHILE SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE CROSSING WYOMING. THIS WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTHWARD. BANDS OF RAIN
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PRODUCED GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL...SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SO WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
THOSE AREAS UNTIL 600 PM MDT. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AS THE SFC PRESS GRADIENT SLACKENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF -SHRA OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROF AXIS CROSSES FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH DRIER
AIR BEHIND IT. A SMALL WAVE ON THE CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW MAY
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT WAVE IS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN US...WITH MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL ALSO SEE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
GUSTY WINDS...THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA AND
AGAIN SATURDAY BEHIND A TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE COOLING AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYMOING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...77
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...77






000
FXUS63 KUNR 010234
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
834 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTH INTO CANADA...WHILE SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE CROSSING WYOMING. THIS WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTHWARD. BANDS OF RAIN
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PRODUCED GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL...SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SO WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
THOSE AREAS UNTIL 600 PM MDT. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AS THE SFC PRESS GRADIENT SLACKENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF -SHRA OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROF AXIS CROSSES FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH DRIER
AIR BEHIND IT. A SMALL WAVE ON THE CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW MAY
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT WAVE IS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN US...WITH MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL ALSO SEE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
GUSTY WINDS...THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA AND
AGAIN SATURDAY BEHIND A TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE COOLING AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYMOING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...77
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...77





000
FXUS63 KABR 302353 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
653 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY SINCE WIND SPEEDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
CRITERIA. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH FURTHER
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN SD. THE THREAT FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA OVERNIGHT.
STARTING TO SHOW GOOD CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE DRY SLOT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SD. THIS MAY BE THE
BEGINNINGS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHWARD MOVING
DRY LINE. SURFACE BASED CAPE HAS RISEN TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG IN A
NARROW RIBBON IN ADVANCE OF THIS DRY LINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...SEVERE STORMS COULD STILL
OCCUR INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ALSO...EXPECT STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
SOUTHWEST WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LESS WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW TWO MORE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR REGION
BRINGING ONLY SOME CLOUD COVER TO OUR AREA. THE NEXT STRONGER
SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE FAR EASTERN CWA.
OTHERWISE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND BRINGING
SOME WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND AN EXITING TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN FACT...BY SATURDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOW 30S...AND DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE...AND DECOUPLING OF WINDS...TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN DROP TO
COLDER VALUES...WHICH COULD BE NEARING THE HARD FREEZE CATEGORY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN
TAKES HOLD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERHAPS SOME WEAK ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR
NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A STRONG AND QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WRAPPING AROUND FAR
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW. WITH SHEAR OF 35 TO 60 KTS SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE
LINE FIZZLES. BEHIND THIS ONE LINE CONDITIONS HAVE DRIED OUT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KATY WHERE
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER UNTIL WED MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY 6Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
15 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KFSD 302337
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
637 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

POTENT VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED NEAR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AREA WHILE
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FROM A TRIPLE POINT TO THE NORTH OF CHAMBERLAIN. NARROW
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 CONTINUES
TO TRUDGE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. PER THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
HOWEVER...A MORE ROBUST AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS IS
LIFTING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND SHOULD SUSTAIN CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
WARM FRONT NUDGES NORTHWARD. WITH RATHER LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL
GO WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION AND NO SEVERE THREAT.

FURTHER WEST...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE DRY SLOT. DEWPOINTS ARE RAPIDLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. CLEARING HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IF
CUMULUS CAN GET GOING FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT ALONG THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME
LIKELY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS SMALL CORRIDOR WHERE VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS - MAINLY IN
BEADLE...SANBORN AND JERAULD COUNTIES - LOW TOPPED SEVERE SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR AND GUSTS TO 60 TO 65 MPH WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. NEAR THE BOUNDARIES/TRIPLE POINT
PARTICULARLY...SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AGAIN...WITH SUCH A NARROW AREA OF CONCERN...ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY.

HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD
COUNTIES...WITH GUSTY WINDS WORKING INTO GREGORY...CM AND BRULE
COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHAMBERLAIN GUSTED TO 44 MPH
EARLIER...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH IN THIS AREA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE PROGRESSION TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY IT SHOULD SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. AHEAD OF IT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST. SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST IOWA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT MUCH
CONVERGENCE OR SUPPORT ALONG THE FRONT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LOOK FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY START OUT DRY...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES LATER AT NIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
NORTH WITH THE NEXT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND HAVE THUS
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF....GFS
AND GEM...WITH THE 12Z NAM AN OUTLIER. THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER...SPREADING
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOCATIONS...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE ADJUSTING UP IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. MAINLY EXPECTING JUST RAIN...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER SOUTHEAST OF A YANKTON TO WINDOM LINE...WHERE SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY EXIST. WITH THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER...LOWERED HIGHS THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES...WITH 60S EXPECTED.

ONE MORE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN...AND REMAIN STRONG INTO FRIDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS
IS AN OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS FAVOR THE MORE SIMILAR
ECMWF...GEM AND NAM SOLUTIONS...WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS OUR AREA. SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE STRONGEST
WINDS SET UP...BUT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD
BE MET OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSER...WILL HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH AS WELL...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. ALL OF THIS COMBINED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S...WILL RESULT IN AN UNPLEASANT FRIDAY.

TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING AND LIGHTER WINDS. WILL BE A COLD NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CURRENTLY THINKING WINDS STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM REALLY TANKING...AND THUS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO LOW.
EITHER WAY 30S ARE LIKELY...BUT ASSUMING WINDS STAY UP...MOST OF THE
AREA PROBABLY WILL NOT HIT FREEZING...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE RIDGING SLOWLY BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK IN. ALTHOUGH A FEW WAVES PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY SLOW ITS PROGRESS. THIS MEANS THAT
WARMING WILL BE SLOWER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WITH SATURDAY IN THE
50S AND 60S...AND SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE GENERALLY LOW
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE WAVE TO OUR NORTHEAST GETS.
AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE HIGHS RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LINGERING RAIN MAY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST IN THE FAR EASTERN
PART OF THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA THRU 12Z.
OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MN AND IA LOOKS SET TO BACK UP
SLOWLY WEST WITH LOW CLOUD DECK SOLIDIFYING IN THE 1K TO 2K FOOT
RANGE. THIS SHOULD SOLIDIFY THE LOW CLOUD DECK AT FSD AND SUX
BEFORE 03Z...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS...PRECEDED BY VFR...LIKELY
GETTING INTO HON FOR A FEW HOURS ABOUT 09Z. THIS BACKING UP OF THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS ALREADY EVIDENT WITH THE STALLING OF THE
DRY AIR BOUNDARY AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTH AWAY FROM THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HOLD
UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT THIS. A COMBINATION OF WARMING WITH SOME
DRYING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD BREAK UP THE LOW CEILINGS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA BACK TO VFR DURING THE 15Z TO 18Z PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-057-063.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 302337
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
637 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

POTENT VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED NEAR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AREA WHILE
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FROM A TRIPLE POINT TO THE NORTH OF CHAMBERLAIN. NARROW
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 CONTINUES
TO TRUDGE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. PER THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
HOWEVER...A MORE ROBUST AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS IS
LIFTING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND SHOULD SUSTAIN CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
WARM FRONT NUDGES NORTHWARD. WITH RATHER LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL
GO WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION AND NO SEVERE THREAT.

FURTHER WEST...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE DRY SLOT. DEWPOINTS ARE RAPIDLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. CLEARING HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IF
CUMULUS CAN GET GOING FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT ALONG THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME
LIKELY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS SMALL CORRIDOR WHERE VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS - MAINLY IN
BEADLE...SANBORN AND JERAULD COUNTIES - LOW TOPPED SEVERE SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR AND GUSTS TO 60 TO 65 MPH WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. NEAR THE BOUNDARIES/TRIPLE POINT
PARTICULARLY...SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AGAIN...WITH SUCH A NARROW AREA OF CONCERN...ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY.

HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD
COUNTIES...WITH GUSTY WINDS WORKING INTO GREGORY...CM AND BRULE
COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHAMBERLAIN GUSTED TO 44 MPH
EARLIER...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH IN THIS AREA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE PROGRESSION TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY IT SHOULD SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. AHEAD OF IT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST. SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST IOWA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT MUCH
CONVERGENCE OR SUPPORT ALONG THE FRONT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LOOK FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY START OUT DRY...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES LATER AT NIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
NORTH WITH THE NEXT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND HAVE THUS
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF....GFS
AND GEM...WITH THE 12Z NAM AN OUTLIER. THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER...SPREADING
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOCATIONS...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE ADJUSTING UP IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. MAINLY EXPECTING JUST RAIN...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER SOUTHEAST OF A YANKTON TO WINDOM LINE...WHERE SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY EXIST. WITH THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER...LOWERED HIGHS THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES...WITH 60S EXPECTED.

ONE MORE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN...AND REMAIN STRONG INTO FRIDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS
IS AN OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS FAVOR THE MORE SIMILAR
ECMWF...GEM AND NAM SOLUTIONS...WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS OUR AREA. SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE STRONGEST
WINDS SET UP...BUT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD
BE MET OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSER...WILL HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH AS WELL...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. ALL OF THIS COMBINED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S...WILL RESULT IN AN UNPLEASANT FRIDAY.

TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING AND LIGHTER WINDS. WILL BE A COLD NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CURRENTLY THINKING WINDS STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM REALLY TANKING...AND THUS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO LOW.
EITHER WAY 30S ARE LIKELY...BUT ASSUMING WINDS STAY UP...MOST OF THE
AREA PROBABLY WILL NOT HIT FREEZING...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE RIDGING SLOWLY BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK IN. ALTHOUGH A FEW WAVES PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY SLOW ITS PROGRESS. THIS MEANS THAT
WARMING WILL BE SLOWER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WITH SATURDAY IN THE
50S AND 60S...AND SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE GENERALLY LOW
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE WAVE TO OUR NORTHEAST GETS.
AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE HIGHS RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LINGERING RAIN MAY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST IN THE FAR EASTERN
PART OF THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA THRU 12Z.
OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MN AND IA LOOKS SET TO BACK UP
SLOWLY WEST WITH LOW CLOUD DECK SOLIDIFYING IN THE 1K TO 2K FOOT
RANGE. THIS SHOULD SOLIDIFY THE LOW CLOUD DECK AT FSD AND SUX
BEFORE 03Z...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS...PRECEDED BY VFR...LIKELY
GETTING INTO HON FOR A FEW HOURS ABOUT 09Z. THIS BACKING UP OF THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS ALREADY EVIDENT WITH THE STALLING OF THE
DRY AIR BOUNDARY AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTH AWAY FROM THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HOLD
UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT THIS. A COMBINATION OF WARMING WITH SOME
DRYING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD BREAK UP THE LOW CEILINGS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA BACK TO VFR DURING THE 15Z TO 18Z PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-057-063.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 302337
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
637 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

POTENT VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED NEAR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AREA WHILE
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FROM A TRIPLE POINT TO THE NORTH OF CHAMBERLAIN. NARROW
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 CONTINUES
TO TRUDGE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. PER THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
HOWEVER...A MORE ROBUST AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS IS
LIFTING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND SHOULD SUSTAIN CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
WARM FRONT NUDGES NORTHWARD. WITH RATHER LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL
GO WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION AND NO SEVERE THREAT.

FURTHER WEST...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE DRY SLOT. DEWPOINTS ARE RAPIDLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. CLEARING HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IF
CUMULUS CAN GET GOING FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT ALONG THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME
LIKELY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS SMALL CORRIDOR WHERE VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS - MAINLY IN
BEADLE...SANBORN AND JERAULD COUNTIES - LOW TOPPED SEVERE SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR AND GUSTS TO 60 TO 65 MPH WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. NEAR THE BOUNDARIES/TRIPLE POINT
PARTICULARLY...SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AGAIN...WITH SUCH A NARROW AREA OF CONCERN...ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY.

HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD
COUNTIES...WITH GUSTY WINDS WORKING INTO GREGORY...CM AND BRULE
COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHAMBERLAIN GUSTED TO 44 MPH
EARLIER...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH IN THIS AREA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE PROGRESSION TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY IT SHOULD SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. AHEAD OF IT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST. SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST IOWA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT MUCH
CONVERGENCE OR SUPPORT ALONG THE FRONT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LOOK FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY START OUT DRY...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES LATER AT NIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
NORTH WITH THE NEXT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND HAVE THUS
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF....GFS
AND GEM...WITH THE 12Z NAM AN OUTLIER. THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER...SPREADING
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOCATIONS...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE ADJUSTING UP IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. MAINLY EXPECTING JUST RAIN...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER SOUTHEAST OF A YANKTON TO WINDOM LINE...WHERE SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY EXIST. WITH THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER...LOWERED HIGHS THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES...WITH 60S EXPECTED.

ONE MORE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN...AND REMAIN STRONG INTO FRIDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS
IS AN OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS FAVOR THE MORE SIMILAR
ECMWF...GEM AND NAM SOLUTIONS...WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS OUR AREA. SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE STRONGEST
WINDS SET UP...BUT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD
BE MET OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSER...WILL HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH AS WELL...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. ALL OF THIS COMBINED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S...WILL RESULT IN AN UNPLEASANT FRIDAY.

TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING AND LIGHTER WINDS. WILL BE A COLD NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CURRENTLY THINKING WINDS STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM REALLY TANKING...AND THUS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO LOW.
EITHER WAY 30S ARE LIKELY...BUT ASSUMING WINDS STAY UP...MOST OF THE
AREA PROBABLY WILL NOT HIT FREEZING...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE RIDGING SLOWLY BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK IN. ALTHOUGH A FEW WAVES PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY SLOW ITS PROGRESS. THIS MEANS THAT
WARMING WILL BE SLOWER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WITH SATURDAY IN THE
50S AND 60S...AND SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE GENERALLY LOW
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE WAVE TO OUR NORTHEAST GETS.
AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE HIGHS RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LINGERING RAIN MAY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST IN THE FAR EASTERN
PART OF THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA THRU 12Z.
OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MN AND IA LOOKS SET TO BACK UP
SLOWLY WEST WITH LOW CLOUD DECK SOLIDIFYING IN THE 1K TO 2K FOOT
RANGE. THIS SHOULD SOLIDIFY THE LOW CLOUD DECK AT FSD AND SUX
BEFORE 03Z...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS...PRECEDED BY VFR...LIKELY
GETTING INTO HON FOR A FEW HOURS ABOUT 09Z. THIS BACKING UP OF THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS ALREADY EVIDENT WITH THE STALLING OF THE
DRY AIR BOUNDARY AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTH AWAY FROM THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HOLD
UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT THIS. A COMBINATION OF WARMING WITH SOME
DRYING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD BREAK UP THE LOW CEILINGS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA BACK TO VFR DURING THE 15Z TO 18Z PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-057-063.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 302337
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
637 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

POTENT VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED NEAR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AREA WHILE
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FROM A TRIPLE POINT TO THE NORTH OF CHAMBERLAIN. NARROW
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 CONTINUES
TO TRUDGE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. PER THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
HOWEVER...A MORE ROBUST AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS IS
LIFTING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND SHOULD SUSTAIN CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
WARM FRONT NUDGES NORTHWARD. WITH RATHER LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL
GO WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION AND NO SEVERE THREAT.

FURTHER WEST...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE DRY SLOT. DEWPOINTS ARE RAPIDLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. CLEARING HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IF
CUMULUS CAN GET GOING FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT ALONG THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME
LIKELY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS SMALL CORRIDOR WHERE VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS - MAINLY IN
BEADLE...SANBORN AND JERAULD COUNTIES - LOW TOPPED SEVERE SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR AND GUSTS TO 60 TO 65 MPH WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. NEAR THE BOUNDARIES/TRIPLE POINT
PARTICULARLY...SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AGAIN...WITH SUCH A NARROW AREA OF CONCERN...ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY.

HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD
COUNTIES...WITH GUSTY WINDS WORKING INTO GREGORY...CM AND BRULE
COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHAMBERLAIN GUSTED TO 44 MPH
EARLIER...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH IN THIS AREA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE PROGRESSION TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY IT SHOULD SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. AHEAD OF IT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST. SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST IOWA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT MUCH
CONVERGENCE OR SUPPORT ALONG THE FRONT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LOOK FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY START OUT DRY...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES LATER AT NIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
NORTH WITH THE NEXT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND HAVE THUS
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF....GFS
AND GEM...WITH THE 12Z NAM AN OUTLIER. THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER...SPREADING
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOCATIONS...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE ADJUSTING UP IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. MAINLY EXPECTING JUST RAIN...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER SOUTHEAST OF A YANKTON TO WINDOM LINE...WHERE SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY EXIST. WITH THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER...LOWERED HIGHS THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES...WITH 60S EXPECTED.

ONE MORE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN...AND REMAIN STRONG INTO FRIDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS
IS AN OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS FAVOR THE MORE SIMILAR
ECMWF...GEM AND NAM SOLUTIONS...WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS OUR AREA. SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE STRONGEST
WINDS SET UP...BUT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD
BE MET OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSER...WILL HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH AS WELL...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. ALL OF THIS COMBINED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S...WILL RESULT IN AN UNPLEASANT FRIDAY.

TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING AND LIGHTER WINDS. WILL BE A COLD NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CURRENTLY THINKING WINDS STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM REALLY TANKING...AND THUS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO LOW.
EITHER WAY 30S ARE LIKELY...BUT ASSUMING WINDS STAY UP...MOST OF THE
AREA PROBABLY WILL NOT HIT FREEZING...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE RIDGING SLOWLY BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK IN. ALTHOUGH A FEW WAVES PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY SLOW ITS PROGRESS. THIS MEANS THAT
WARMING WILL BE SLOWER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WITH SATURDAY IN THE
50S AND 60S...AND SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE GENERALLY LOW
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE WAVE TO OUR NORTHEAST GETS.
AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE HIGHS RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LINGERING RAIN MAY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST IN THE FAR EASTERN
PART OF THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA THRU 12Z.
OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MN AND IA LOOKS SET TO BACK UP
SLOWLY WEST WITH LOW CLOUD DECK SOLIDIFYING IN THE 1K TO 2K FOOT
RANGE. THIS SHOULD SOLIDIFY THE LOW CLOUD DECK AT FSD AND SUX
BEFORE 03Z...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS...PRECEDED BY VFR...LIKELY
GETTING INTO HON FOR A FEW HOURS ABOUT 09Z. THIS BACKING UP OF THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS ALREADY EVIDENT WITH THE STALLING OF THE
DRY AIR BOUNDARY AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTH AWAY FROM THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HOLD
UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT THIS. A COMBINATION OF WARMING WITH SOME
DRYING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD BREAK UP THE LOW CEILINGS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA BACK TO VFR DURING THE 15Z TO 18Z PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-057-063.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KUNR 302054
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
254 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTHWARD. BANDS OF RAIN
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PRODUCED GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL...SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SO WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
THOSE AREAS UNTIL 600 PM MDT. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AS THE SFC PRESS GRADIENT SLACKENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF -SHRA OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROF AXIS CROSSES FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH DRIER
AIR BEHIND IT. A SMALL WAVE ON THE CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW MAY
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT WAVE IS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN US...WITH MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL ALSO SEE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
GUSTY WINDS...THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA AND
AGAIN SATURDAY BEHIND A TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE COOLING AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STORM SYSTEM OVR NCNTRL SD CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD...W/
SHWRS REMAINING OVER NWRN SD THIS AFTN AND EVEN...THEN DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE PRECIP...WHILE CIGS ARE LIFTING
OVER SWRN SD WHERE DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE INCREASED. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WL DIMINISH THIS EVEN AND BCM WESTERLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE OFF TOWARD THE NORTH AND THE BANDS
OF SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AN INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. A FLOOD
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FALL RIVER COUNTY AND PARTS OF
CUSTER...WESTERN PENNINGTON AND FAR WESTERN SHANNON COUNTIES UNTIL
700 PM MDT THIS EVENING. THOSE ARE THE AREAS WHICH RECEIVED THE
MOST RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
ARE RUNNING VERY HIGH IN THOSE AREAS. DEBRIS IN THOSE STREAMS CAN
QUICKLY BLOCK CULVERTS WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ026-
     027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...55
HYDROLOGY...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 302054
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
254 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTHWARD. BANDS OF RAIN
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PRODUCED GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL...SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SO WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
THOSE AREAS UNTIL 600 PM MDT. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AS THE SFC PRESS GRADIENT SLACKENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF -SHRA OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROF AXIS CROSSES FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH DRIER
AIR BEHIND IT. A SMALL WAVE ON THE CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW MAY
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT WAVE IS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN US...WITH MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL ALSO SEE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
GUSTY WINDS...THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA AND
AGAIN SATURDAY BEHIND A TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE COOLING AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STORM SYSTEM OVR NCNTRL SD CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD...W/
SHWRS REMAINING OVER NWRN SD THIS AFTN AND EVEN...THEN DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE PRECIP...WHILE CIGS ARE LIFTING
OVER SWRN SD WHERE DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE INCREASED. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WL DIMINISH THIS EVEN AND BCM WESTERLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE OFF TOWARD THE NORTH AND THE BANDS
OF SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AN INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. A FLOOD
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FALL RIVER COUNTY AND PARTS OF
CUSTER...WESTERN PENNINGTON AND FAR WESTERN SHANNON COUNTIES UNTIL
700 PM MDT THIS EVENING. THOSE ARE THE AREAS WHICH RECEIVED THE
MOST RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
ARE RUNNING VERY HIGH IN THOSE AREAS. DEBRIS IN THOSE STREAMS CAN
QUICKLY BLOCK CULVERTS WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ026-
     027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...55
HYDROLOGY...10







000
FXUS63 KABR 302041
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA OVERNIGHT.
STARTING TO SHOW GOOD CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE DRY SLOT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SD. THIS MAY BE THE
BEGINNINGS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHWARD MOVING
DRY LINE. SURFACE BASED CAPE HAS RISEN TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG IN A
NARROW RIBBON IN ADVANCE OF THIS DRY LINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...SEVERE STORMS COULD STILL
OCCUR INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ALSO...EXPECT STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
SOUTHWEST WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LESS WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW TWO MORE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR REGION
BRINGING ONLY SOME CLOUD COVER TO OUR AREA. THE NEXT STRONGER
SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE FAR EASTERN CWA.
OTHERWISE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND BRINGING
SOME WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND AN EXITING TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN FACT...BY SATURDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOW 30S...AND DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE...AND DECOUPLING OF WINDS...TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN DROP TO
COLDER VALUES...WHICH COULD BE NEARING THE HARD FREEZE CATEGORY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN
TAKES HOLD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERHAPS SOME WEAK ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR
NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A STRONG AND QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...WITH A SLOT OF DRY AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO THE LOW.
MVFR/IFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT WILL CLEAR BRIEFLY AS THE DRY
AIR TAKES OVER. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
THAT RECEIVE ENOUGH SUNSHINE UNDER THE AREA OF CLEARING...MAINLY
BETWEEN 20Z-03Z TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MOVES IN BEHIND
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEFORE THE WHOLE SYSTEM EXITS TONIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR HUGHES-
     JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY-SULLY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 302041
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA OVERNIGHT.
STARTING TO SHOW GOOD CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE DRY SLOT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SD. THIS MAY BE THE
BEGINNINGS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHWARD MOVING
DRY LINE. SURFACE BASED CAPE HAS RISEN TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG IN A
NARROW RIBBON IN ADVANCE OF THIS DRY LINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...SEVERE STORMS COULD STILL
OCCUR INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ALSO...EXPECT STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
SOUTHWEST WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LESS WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW TWO MORE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR REGION
BRINGING ONLY SOME CLOUD COVER TO OUR AREA. THE NEXT STRONGER
SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE FAR EASTERN CWA.
OTHERWISE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND BRINGING
SOME WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND AN EXITING TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN FACT...BY SATURDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOW 30S...AND DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE...AND DECOUPLING OF WINDS...TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN DROP TO
COLDER VALUES...WHICH COULD BE NEARING THE HARD FREEZE CATEGORY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN
TAKES HOLD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERHAPS SOME WEAK ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR
NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A STRONG AND QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...WITH A SLOT OF DRY AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO THE LOW.
MVFR/IFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT WILL CLEAR BRIEFLY AS THE DRY
AIR TAKES OVER. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
THAT RECEIVE ENOUGH SUNSHINE UNDER THE AREA OF CLEARING...MAINLY
BETWEEN 20Z-03Z TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MOVES IN BEHIND
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEFORE THE WHOLE SYSTEM EXITS TONIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR HUGHES-
     JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY-SULLY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 302041
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

POTENT VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED NEAR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AREA WHILE
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FROM A TRIPLE POINT TO THE NORTH OF CHAMBERLAIN. NARROW
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 CONTINUES
TO TRUDGE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. PER THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
HOWEVER...A MORE ROBUST AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS IS
LIFTING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND SHOULD SUSTAIN CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
WARM FRONT NUDGES NORTHWARD. WITH RATHER LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL
GO WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION AND NO SEVERE THREAT.

FURTHER WEST...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE DRY SLOT. DEWPOINTS ARE RAPIDLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. CLEARING HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IF
CUMULUS CAN GET GOING FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT ALONG THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME
LIKELY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS SMALL CORRIDOR WHERE VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS - MAINLY IN
BEADLE...SANBORN AND JERAULD COUNTIES - LOW TOPPED SEVERE SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR AND GUSTS TO 60 TO 65 MPH WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. NEAR THE BOUNDARIES/TRIPLE POINT
PARTICULARLY...SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AGAIN...WITH SUCH A NARROW AREA OF CONCERN...ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY.

HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD
COUNTIES...WITH GUSTY WINDS WORKING INTO GREGORY...CM AND BRULE
COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHAMBERLAIN GUSTED TO 44 MPH
EARLIER...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH IN THIS AREA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE PROGRESSION TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY IT SHOULD SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. AHEAD OF IT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST. SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST IOWA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT MUCH
CONVERGENCE OR SUPPORT ALONG THE FRONT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LOOK FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY START OUT DRY...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES LATER AT NIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
NORTH WITH THE NEXT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND HAVE THUS
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF....GFS
AND GEM...WITH THE 12Z NAM AN OUTLIER. THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER...SPREADING
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOCATIONS...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE ADJUSTING UP IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. MAINLY EXPECTING JUST RAIN...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER SOUTHEAST OF A YANKTON TO WINDOM LINE...WHERE SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY EXIST. WITH THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER...LOWERED HIGHS THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES...WITH 60S EXPECTED.

ONE MORE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN...AND REMAIN STRONG INTO FRIDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS
IS AN OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS FAVOR THE MORE SIMILAR
ECMWF...GEM AND NAM SOLUTIONS...WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS OUR AREA. SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE STRONGEST
WINDS SET UP...BUT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD
BE MET OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSER...WILL HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH AS WELL...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. ALL OF THIS COMBINED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S...WILL RESULT IN AN UNPLEASANT FRIDAY.

TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING AND LIGHTER WINDS. WILL BE A COLD NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CURRENTLY THINKING WINDS STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM REALLY TANKING...AND THUS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO LOW.
EITHER WAY 30S ARE LIKELY...BUT ASSUMING WINDS STAY UP...MOST OF THE
AREA PROBABLY WILL NOT HIT FREEZING...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE RIDGING SLOWLY BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK IN. ALTHOUGH A FEW WAVES PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY SLOW ITS PROGRESS. THIS MEANS THAT
WARMING WILL BE SLOWER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WITH SATURDAY IN THE
50S AND 60S...AND SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE GENERALLY LOW
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE WAVE TO OUR NORTHEAST GETS.
AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE HIGHS RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS THE STRATUS AND LIGHT RAIN STREAMING ACROSS AREAS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WITH CLEARING TO THE WEST OF THIS
AREA...IT IS UNCERTAIN EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST THIS CLEARING WILL
PUSH. MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT THE I29 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD
WILL REMAIN UNDER STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS IN KFSD
AND KSUX THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE
EASTWARD PUSH...COULD SEE CEILINGS LIFT SOONER...OR PERHAPS A
SHORT LIVED IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA NEAR THE I29
CORRIDOR WILL SLOWLY NUDGE EASTWARD BUT CONCERNS FOR TSRA ARE
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. IN THE KHON AREA AND SURROUNDING
COUNTIES...SOME ADDITIONAL REDEVELOP OF TSRA IS POSSIBLE FROM
AROUND 21Z TO 03Z. WILL LEAVE IN TEMPO MENTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-057-063.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 301754
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1254 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR CONTINUES TO
TRUDGE EASTWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE
COOL IN AREAS UNDER THE STRATUS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS RAIN BAND. CLEARING HAS BROKEN OUT
IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH MARKEDLY DRIER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S STREAMING INTO THE DRY SLOT OF THIS SYSTEM.
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER WESTERN SD IS LIFTING MORE
NORTHERLY. WITH THIS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...SEVERE CHANCES ARE
QUICKLY WANING FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. BEST INSTABILITY AND
STEEPEST LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO JERAULD...BEADLE
AND SANBORNE COUNTIES ALONG THE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE AXIS AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIPLE POINT. IF ANY THUNDERSTORM MANAGES TO
DEVELOP MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IN THIS AREA...SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THREAT.
GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE SUGGESTS THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SHOULD QUICKLY END BEHIND THE
ONGOING RAIN BAND.

ALSO CONTINUING TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
GUSTS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RECENT WIND GUSTS
OF 36 KT NOTED IN AINSWORTH NEB. MAIN CONCERN IS GREGORY AND BRULE
COUNTY...BUT IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TREND MORE NORTHERLY...THE
STRONGEST GUSTS MAY BE CONFINED TO AREAS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STILL LOOKING AT A VERY STRONG SYSTEM MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SYNOPTICALLY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL SD TODAY...BEFORE ENTERING CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING. THE
SYSTEM IS STACKED SO THE SURFACE LOW IS FOLLOWING THE PLACEMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT JUTTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

THE DRY SLOT IS CURRENTLY VISIBLE IN FAR WESTERN KS AND SOUTHWEST
NEB...AND IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD IMPACTING OUR WESTERN ZONES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. AHEAD OF IT...EXPECTING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG THE FIRST SHORT WAVE. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THE AREA TO FOCUS ON IS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY
SLOT...AND THE DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK LOOKS LIKE IT HAS IT NAILED
ENCOMPASSING THE JAMES AND VERMILLION RIVER VALLEYS... WHICH IS ALSO
WHAT WE WERE THINKING YESTERDAY. THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST
IS EXACT TIMING WHEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR. NOT AT ALL
CONVINCED THAT THE INITIAL BAND OF RAIN WILL PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.
THIS IS BECAUSE THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED...NOT TAPPING
INTO THE STRONG 0-1KM SHEAR. OVERALL...CAPES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ARE ALSO THIN. BUT JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT...WHEN THE UPPER LOW
IS IN WEST CENTRAL SD...A SECOND SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
THE WAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...AS BY 21Z
WITH THE DRY SLOT IN PLACE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA COULD TAP INTO THE 0-1KM WIND SHEAR WHICH IS EXTREMELY STRONG.
IN FACT 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 250 IN THOSE AREAS...
JUXTAPOSED WITH SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY OF ELEVATED MU CAPE IN THE
925-850MB LAYER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...WHICH FINALLY NOSES
NORTHWARD. IF LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND THE JAMES VALLEY AREA FOR A BRIEF
TIME IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THE OTHER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR THE VERMILLION RIVER VALLEY WOULD LIKELY BE WINDS AROUND 60 TO
65 MPH AND HAIL UP TO QUARTERS. EVEN AT JUST 925MB...WIND SPEEDS ARE
AVERAGING 30 KNOTS TODAY...COUPLED WITH A JET STREAK OF 65 TO 75
KNOTS NUDGING UP INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SO IT WOULD NOT TAKE A LOT TO PUSH SEVERE WIND DOWN TO
THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT.

AND SPEAKING OF STOUT WINDS...IT WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES TODAY NEAR THE DRY SLOT. THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE MIXING POTENTIAL. BUT IF THAT AREA
MIXES HIGHER THAN EXPECTED...WIND ADVISORY TYPE WINDS COULD BE
OBTAINED IN AND CLOSE TO THE LOWER BRULE AREA. HIGHS TODAY ARE
PROBLEMATIC...TOTALLY DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF LATE DAY CLOUD COVER.
LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHEAST QUAD OF OUR FORECAST AREA MAY STAY IN THE
60S WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST. MID 70S ARE LIKELY IN
THE DRY SLOT. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF FAST WITH LOWS
STILL PRETTY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE REALLY NEVER IS A
WIND SHIFT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA USHERING IN COOLER AIR AS THE WAVE
LIFTS TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION. BUT RAIN COULD LINGER IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHWEST IA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VERY ACTIVE FORECAST IN THE MID RANGE AS A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.  ON WEDNESDAY...APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-29.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRATUS
WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING...THOUGH THAT MAY BE A LITTLE FAST.
OVERALL...THINK THE STRATUS WILL EVENTUALLY MIX OUT...AND AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME UNSTABLE.  INTERESTING SET UP BECAUSE
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT...AND
CONVERGENCE IS NOT THAT STRONG WITH VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT
...BUT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A STORM OR TO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH BETTER CONVECTIVE SET UP FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...AND HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA AND COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MUCH STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH
STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE DOWNRIGHT WINDS DAY THOUGH AS 925 HPA WINDS RUN
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30-40 KNOTS.  HAVE INCREASED WINDS ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES AS WIND ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY.  HAVE ALSO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AS A VEIL OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS DROPS DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  DESPITE THE MIXY CONDITIONS AND THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW...GUIDANCE VALUES STILL LOOKED TO WARM BASED ON TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND COOLED HIGHS FOR FRIDAY COMPARED TO GUIDANCE.

MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  A FEW
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MAY DROP DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS THE STRATUS AND LIGHT RAIN STREAMING ACROSS AREAS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WITH CLEARING TO THE WEST OF THIS
AREA...IT IS UNCERTAIN EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST THIS CLEARING WILL
PUSH. MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT THE I29 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD
WILL REMAIN UNDER STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS IN KFSD
AND KSUX THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE
EASTWARD PUSH...COULD SEE CEILINGS LIFT SOONER...OR PERHAPS A
SHORT LIVED IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA NEAR THE I29
CORRIDOR WILL SLOWLY NUDGE EASTWARD BUT CONCERNS FOR TSRA ARE
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. IN THE KHON AREA AND SURROUNDING
COUNTIES...SOME ADDITIONAL REDEVELOP OF TSRA IS POSSIBLE FROM
AROUND 21Z TO 03Z. WILL LEAVE IN TEMPO MENTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KABR 301749 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1249 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION AND ITS ASSOCIATED 993
MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WERE IN WESTERN SD THIS MORNING.
THESE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AND BE IN SOUTHERN CANADA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STRONG WAA BAND
OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
EASTERN CWA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY AND EVENING WILL BE THE MOVEMENT OF THE DRY SLOT AND
DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH SUNSHINE IN
THE DRY SLOT AND SURFACE HEATING...DO EXPECT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
TO BUILD UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS SHOW MORE SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SEVERAL STORMS SHOULD ROTATE AND
COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TORNADO. STILL HAVE THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CWA TODAY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A POWERFUL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA WILL IMPACT THIS CWA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS TO MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS
OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BUFFER SOUNDING AT KPIR
INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS...WITH A PEAK GUST OF
45 KNOTS. THUS A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL SD.

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS WORRIED ABOUT THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY LIMITING SEVERE WEATHER. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TODAY. ONE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH A NOTICEABLE DRY SLOT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO SHOULD
ROTATE INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR WITHIN A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY BUT EXCELLENT SHEAR TO RESULT IN LOW
TOPPED SUPERCELLS. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS AND
0-1 KM ENERGY HELICITY INDEX OVER 2 SUGGEST TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THUS WILL MENTION SEVERE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH NORTH OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO PUSH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS THE MUCH
STRONGER MODEL WITH WINDS AND MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH ANY PRECIP.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH DRIER. WILL RAMP UP WINDS
FOR FRIDAY AND LEAVE POPS AS IS...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HAVE TO
BE RAMPED UP ON FUTURE SHIFTS IF MODELS COME AROUND TO WET ECMWF.
COOL AIRMASS ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF FROST TO MOST OF
THE AREA...SPLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER AIR
RETURNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANY FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVES LOOK TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A STRONG AND QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...WITH A SLOT OF DRY AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO THE LOW.
MVFR/IFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT WILL CLEAR BRIEFLY AS THE DRY
AIR TAKES OVER. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
THAT RECEIVE ENOUGH SUNSHINE UNDER THE AREA OF CLEARING...MAINLY
BETWEEN 20Z-03Z TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MOVES IN BEHIND
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEFORE THE WHOLE SYSTEM EXITS TONIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR HUGHES-
     JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY-SULLY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 301749 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1249 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION AND ITS ASSOCIATED 993
MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WERE IN WESTERN SD THIS MORNING.
THESE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AND BE IN SOUTHERN CANADA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STRONG WAA BAND
OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
EASTERN CWA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY AND EVENING WILL BE THE MOVEMENT OF THE DRY SLOT AND
DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH SUNSHINE IN
THE DRY SLOT AND SURFACE HEATING...DO EXPECT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
TO BUILD UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS SHOW MORE SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SEVERAL STORMS SHOULD ROTATE AND
COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TORNADO. STILL HAVE THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CWA TODAY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A POWERFUL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA WILL IMPACT THIS CWA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS TO MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS
OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BUFFER SOUNDING AT KPIR
INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS...WITH A PEAK GUST OF
45 KNOTS. THUS A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL SD.

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS WORRIED ABOUT THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY LIMITING SEVERE WEATHER. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TODAY. ONE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH A NOTICEABLE DRY SLOT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO SHOULD
ROTATE INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR WITHIN A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY BUT EXCELLENT SHEAR TO RESULT IN LOW
TOPPED SUPERCELLS. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS AND
0-1 KM ENERGY HELICITY INDEX OVER 2 SUGGEST TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THUS WILL MENTION SEVERE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH NORTH OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO PUSH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS THE MUCH
STRONGER MODEL WITH WINDS AND MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH ANY PRECIP.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH DRIER. WILL RAMP UP WINDS
FOR FRIDAY AND LEAVE POPS AS IS...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HAVE TO
BE RAMPED UP ON FUTURE SHIFTS IF MODELS COME AROUND TO WET ECMWF.
COOL AIRMASS ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF FROST TO MOST OF
THE AREA...SPLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER AIR
RETURNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANY FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVES LOOK TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A STRONG AND QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...WITH A SLOT OF DRY AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO THE LOW.
MVFR/IFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT WILL CLEAR BRIEFLY AS THE DRY
AIR TAKES OVER. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
THAT RECEIVE ENOUGH SUNSHINE UNDER THE AREA OF CLEARING...MAINLY
BETWEEN 20Z-03Z TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MOVES IN BEHIND
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEFORE THE WHOLE SYSTEM EXITS TONIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR HUGHES-
     JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY-SULLY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 301732
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1132 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FLOOD HEADLINES. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW BETWEEN KAIA/KCDR/KIEN. UPPER LOW
NOW STACKED ON TOP OF SURFACE LOW PER WATER VAPOR. FORCING AHEAD
OF SYSTEM PRONOUNCED WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG WARM FRONT FROM
LOW INTO CENTRAL SD. CONVECTION FEEDING STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE
FROM SOUTHWEST ND THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE NE PANHANDLE.
00Z NAM A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING AND THE 00Z GFS FARTHEST WEST. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
AND YOU END UP WITH THE BEST RAINS OCCURRING IN THE CURRENT FLOOD
WATCH AREA. HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FALL THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FEEDS INTO STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT/DEFORMATION ZONE. AS LOW
PASSES...RAPID SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AND WELL-
DEFINED ISALLOBARIC FORCING. COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT THAT
STRONG...BUT SUBSIDENCE/PRESSURE RISES BEHIND LOW SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A PERIOD OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS FROM WEST
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...BUT LIKELY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...STACKED SYSTEM RACES INTO SOUTHERN SK/MB AS IT WEAKENS.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME -SHRA OVER THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY...SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH SLICES THROUGH THE REGION WITH
BEST FORCING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND THUS HAVE
PAINTED BETTER POPS TOWARD THE SD/NE BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A STRONG
UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN WITH UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN AVERAGE THU/FRI...THEN WARM BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STORM SYSTEM NR KPHP MOVG NEWD...W/ WIDESPREAD SHWRS...ISOLD
TSTMS...AND MVFR CIGS/VSBY...ESP OVR WRN SD THIS AFTN. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WL INCRS OVER NERN WY/SWRN INTO S CNTRL SD THIS
AFTN. CIGS WL IMPROVE THIS EVNG...WHILE WNDS DIMINISH AND BCM
WESTERLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER HAAKON COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS WELL. THE
FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WAS SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. ALTHOUGH RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOUND OVER THE AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS ENDING...SO HAVE CANCELLED
THAT FLOOD WATCH. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FALL
RIVER COUNTY AND PARTS OF CUSTER...WESTERN PENNINGTON AND FAR
WESTERN SHANNON COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM MDT THIS EVENING. THOSE ARE
THE AREAS WHICH RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING VERY HIGH IN THOSE
AREAS. DEBRIS IN THOSE STREAMS CAN QUICKLY BLOCK CULVERTS WHICH
COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ026-
     027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
HYDROLOGY...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 301732
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1132 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FLOOD HEADLINES. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW BETWEEN KAIA/KCDR/KIEN. UPPER LOW
NOW STACKED ON TOP OF SURFACE LOW PER WATER VAPOR. FORCING AHEAD
OF SYSTEM PRONOUNCED WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG WARM FRONT FROM
LOW INTO CENTRAL SD. CONVECTION FEEDING STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE
FROM SOUTHWEST ND THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE NE PANHANDLE.
00Z NAM A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING AND THE 00Z GFS FARTHEST WEST. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
AND YOU END UP WITH THE BEST RAINS OCCURRING IN THE CURRENT FLOOD
WATCH AREA. HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FALL THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FEEDS INTO STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT/DEFORMATION ZONE. AS LOW
PASSES...RAPID SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AND WELL-
DEFINED ISALLOBARIC FORCING. COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT THAT
STRONG...BUT SUBSIDENCE/PRESSURE RISES BEHIND LOW SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A PERIOD OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS FROM WEST
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...BUT LIKELY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...STACKED SYSTEM RACES INTO SOUTHERN SK/MB AS IT WEAKENS.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME -SHRA OVER THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY...SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH SLICES THROUGH THE REGION WITH
BEST FORCING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND THUS HAVE
PAINTED BETTER POPS TOWARD THE SD/NE BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A STRONG
UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN WITH UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN AVERAGE THU/FRI...THEN WARM BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STORM SYSTEM NR KPHP MOVG NEWD...W/ WIDESPREAD SHWRS...ISOLD
TSTMS...AND MVFR CIGS/VSBY...ESP OVR WRN SD THIS AFTN. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WL INCRS OVER NERN WY/SWRN INTO S CNTRL SD THIS
AFTN. CIGS WL IMPROVE THIS EVNG...WHILE WNDS DIMINISH AND BCM
WESTERLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER HAAKON COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS WELL. THE
FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WAS SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. ALTHOUGH RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOUND OVER THE AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS ENDING...SO HAVE CANCELLED
THAT FLOOD WATCH. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FALL
RIVER COUNTY AND PARTS OF CUSTER...WESTERN PENNINGTON AND FAR
WESTERN SHANNON COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM MDT THIS EVENING. THOSE ARE
THE AREAS WHICH RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING VERY HIGH IN THOSE
AREAS. DEBRIS IN THOSE STREAMS CAN QUICKLY BLOCK CULVERTS WHICH
COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ026-
     027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
HYDROLOGY...10







000
FXUS63 KABR 301549 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1049 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION AND ITS ASSOCIATED 993
MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WERE IN WESTERN SD THIS MORNING.
THESE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AND BE IN SOUTHERN CANADA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STRONG WAA BAND
OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
EASTERN CWA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY AND EVENING WILL BE THE MOVEMENT OF THE DRY SLOT AND
DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH SUNSHINE IN
THE DRY SLOT AND SURFACE HEATING...DO EXPECT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
TO BUILD UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS SHOW MORE SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SEVERAL STORMS SHOULD ROTATE AND
COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TORNADO. STILL HAVE THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CWA TODAY.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A POWERFUL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA WILL IMPACT THIS CWA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS TO MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS
OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BUFFER SOUNDING AT KPIR
INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS...WITH A PEAK GUST OF
45 KNOTS. THUS A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL SD.

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS WORRIED ABOUT THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY LIMITING SEVERE WEATHER. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TODAY. ONE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH A NOTICEABLE DRY SLOT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO SHOULD
ROTATE INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR WITHIN A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY BUT EXCELLENT SHEAR TO RESULT IN LOW
TOPPED SUPERCELLS. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS AND
0-1 KM ENERGY HELICITY INDEX OVER 2 SUGGEST TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THUS WILL MENTION SEVERE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH NORTH OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO PUSH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECWMF IS THE MUCH
STRONGER MODEL WITH WINDS AND MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH ANY PRECIP.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH DRIER. WILL RAMP UP WINDS
FOR FRIDAY AND LEAVE POPS AS IS...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HAVE TO
BE RAMPED UP ON FUTURE SHIFTS IF MODELS COME AROUND TO WET ECWMF.
COOL AIRMASS ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF FROST TO MOST OF
THE AREA...SPLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER AIR
RETURNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANY FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVES LOOK TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE ATTM.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KMBG AND KABR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30KTS WILL
CONTINUE MOST OF DAY. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR HUGHES-
     JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY-SULLY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 301549 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1049 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION AND ITS ASSOCIATED 993
MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WERE IN WESTERN SD THIS MORNING.
THESE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AND BE IN SOUTHERN CANADA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STRONG WAA BAND
OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
EASTERN CWA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY AND EVENING WILL BE THE MOVEMENT OF THE DRY SLOT AND
DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH SUNSHINE IN
THE DRY SLOT AND SURFACE HEATING...DO EXPECT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
TO BUILD UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS SHOW MORE SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SEVERAL STORMS SHOULD ROTATE AND
COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TORNADO. STILL HAVE THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CWA TODAY.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A POWERFUL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA WILL IMPACT THIS CWA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS TO MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS
OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BUFFER SOUNDING AT KPIR
INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS...WITH A PEAK GUST OF
45 KNOTS. THUS A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL SD.

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS WORRIED ABOUT THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY LIMITING SEVERE WEATHER. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TODAY. ONE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH A NOTICEABLE DRY SLOT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO SHOULD
ROTATE INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR WITHIN A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY BUT EXCELLENT SHEAR TO RESULT IN LOW
TOPPED SUPERCELLS. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS AND
0-1 KM ENERGY HELICITY INDEX OVER 2 SUGGEST TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THUS WILL MENTION SEVERE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH NORTH OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO PUSH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECWMF IS THE MUCH
STRONGER MODEL WITH WINDS AND MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH ANY PRECIP.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH DRIER. WILL RAMP UP WINDS
FOR FRIDAY AND LEAVE POPS AS IS...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HAVE TO
BE RAMPED UP ON FUTURE SHIFTS IF MODELS COME AROUND TO WET ECWMF.
COOL AIRMASS ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF FROST TO MOST OF
THE AREA...SPLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER AIR
RETURNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANY FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVES LOOK TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE ATTM.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KMBG AND KABR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30KTS WILL
CONTINUE MOST OF DAY. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR HUGHES-
     JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY-SULLY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 301142
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
642 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STILL LOOKING AT A VERY STRONG SYSTEM MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SYNOPTICALLY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL SD TODAY...BEFORE ENTERING CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING. THE
SYSTEM IS STACKED SO THE SURFACE LOW IS FOLLOWING THE PLACEMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT JUTTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

THE DRY SLOT IS CURRENTLY VISIBLE IN FAR WESTERN KS AND SOUTHWEST
NEB...AND IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD IMPACTING OUR WESTERN ZONES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. AHEAD OF IT...EXPECTING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG THE FIRST SHORT WAVE. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THE AREA TO FOCUS ON IS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY
SLOT...AND THE DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK LOOKS LIKE IT HAS IT NAILED
ENCOMPASSING THE JAMES AND VERMILLION RIVER VALLEYS... WHICH IS ALSO
WHAT WE WERE THINKING YESTERDAY. THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST
IS EXACT TIMING WHEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR. NOT AT ALL
CONVINCED THAT THE INITIAL BAND OF RAIN WILL PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.
THIS IS BECAUSE THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED...NOT TAPPING
INTO THE STRONG 0-1KM SHEAR. OVERALL...CAPES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ARE ALSO THIN. BUT JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT...WHEN THE UPPER LOW
IS IN WEST CENTRAL SD...A SECOND SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
THE WAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...AS BY 21Z
WITH THE DRY SLOT IN PLACE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA COULD TAP INTO THE 0-1KM WIND SHEAR WHICH IS EXTREMELY STRONG.
IN FACT 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 250 IN THOSE AREAS...
JUXTAPOSED WITH SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY OF ELEVATED MU CAPE IN THE
925-850MB LAYER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...WHICH FINALLY NOSES
NORTHWARD. IF LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND THE JAMES VALLEY AREA FOR A BRIEF
TIME IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THE OTHER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR THE VERMILLION RIVER VALLEY WOULD LIKELY BE WINDS AROUND 60 TO
65 MPH AND HAIL UP TO QUARTERS. EVEN AT JUST 925MB...WIND SPEEDS ARE
AVERAGING 30 KNOTS TODAY...COUPLED WITH A JET STREAK OF 65 TO 75
KNOTS NUDGING UP INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SO IT WOULD NOT TAKE A LOT TO PUSH SEVERE WIND DOWN TO
THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT.

AND SPEAKING OF STOUT WINDS...IT WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES TODAY NEAR THE DRY SLOT. THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE MIXING POTENTIAL. BUT IF THAT AREA
MIXES HIGHER THAN EXPECTED...WIND ADVISORY TYPE WINDS COULD BE
OBTAINED IN AND CLOSE TO THE LOWER BRULE AREA. HIGHS TODAY ARE
PROBLEMATIC...TOTALLY DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF LATE DAY CLOUD COVER.
LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHEAST QUAD OF OUR FORECAST AREA MAY STAY IN THE
60S WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST. MID 70S ARE LIKELY IN
THE DRY SLOT. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF FAST WITH LOWS
STILL PRETTY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE REALLY NEVER IS A
WIND SHIFT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA USHERING IN COOLER AIR AS THE WAVE
LIFTS TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION. BUT RAIN COULD LINGER IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHWEST IA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VERY ACTIVE FORECAST IN THE MID RANGE AS A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.  ON WEDNESDAY...APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-29.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRATUS
WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING...THOUGH THAT MAY BE A LITTLE FAST.
OVERALL...THINK THE STRATUS WILL EVENTUALLY MIX OUT...AND AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME UNSTABLE.  INTERESTING SET UP BECAUSE
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT...AND
CONVERGENCE IS NOT THAT STRONG WITH VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT
...BUT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A STORM OR TO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH BETTER CONVECTIVE SET UP FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...AND HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA AND COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MUCH STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH
STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE DOWNRIGHT WINDS DAY THOUGH AS 925 HPA WINDS RUN
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30-40 KNOTS.  HAVE INCREASED WINDS ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES AS WIND ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY.  HAVE ALSO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AS A VEIL OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS DROPS DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  DESPITE THE MIXY CONDITIONS AND THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW...GUIDANCE VALUES STILL LOOKED TO WARM BASED ON TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND COOLED HIGHS FOR FRIDAY COMPARED TO GUIDANCE.

MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  A FEW
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MAY DROP DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH THE OVERALL WEATHER TREND FOR THE
KHON...KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES. BUT CONVERSELY...CONFIDENCE IS
SHAKY AT BEST WITH THE SMALL SCALE DETAILS INVOLVING EXACT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND STRATUS POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY...MANY OF
THE MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM...RAP AND GFS HAVE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BASED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WHERE NO STRATUS EXISTS.
THAT SAID...OBSERVATIONS SHOW A TON OF STRATUS IN THE IFR AND LIFR
CATEGORIES INCHING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST ALONG THE
EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR. EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS MAY SHIFT A BIT TO THE
SOUTHEAST...LIFR STRATUS IS ALSO ABUNDANT IN SOUTHERN IOWA SO ONE
WOULD THINK THAT SOONER OR LATER...THIS WOULD ENCROACH INTO THE
KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES. MIXING THIS MORNING MAY NUDGE THE STRATUS
UP INTO THE VERY LOW END OF THE MVFR CATEGORY...BUT IT WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED AND KFSD AND KSUX TAFS UPDATED WHEN NEEDED.
OTHERWISE THE PRECIP TREND FOR KFSD AND KSUX IS SIMILAR BECAUSE
THE TIMING OF THE RAIN/THUNDER BAND IS SIMILAR FOR THE TWO SITES.
TONIGHT...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STRATUS MAY HANG ON FOR
KFSD IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...BUT COULD BREAK OUT AT KSUX BEING
FURTHER SOUTH.

KHON IS ALSO TRICKY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MVFR STRATUS...
BORDERLINE IFR...WILL DEVELOP FOR KHON BY AROUND 15Z. SPOTTY
STRATUS DOES EXIST CURRENTLY IN EAST CENTRAL SD BUT IS HARD TO SEE
DUE TO THE THICK HIGH CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOST CONCERNING
FOR KHON HOWEVER IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE AND DRY SLOT.
THIS WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR THE 21Z TO 23Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 301142
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
642 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STILL LOOKING AT A VERY STRONG SYSTEM MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SYNOPTICALLY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL SD TODAY...BEFORE ENTERING CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING. THE
SYSTEM IS STACKED SO THE SURFACE LOW IS FOLLOWING THE PLACEMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT JUTTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

THE DRY SLOT IS CURRENTLY VISIBLE IN FAR WESTERN KS AND SOUTHWEST
NEB...AND IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD IMPACTING OUR WESTERN ZONES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. AHEAD OF IT...EXPECTING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG THE FIRST SHORT WAVE. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THE AREA TO FOCUS ON IS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY
SLOT...AND THE DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK LOOKS LIKE IT HAS IT NAILED
ENCOMPASSING THE JAMES AND VERMILLION RIVER VALLEYS... WHICH IS ALSO
WHAT WE WERE THINKING YESTERDAY. THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST
IS EXACT TIMING WHEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR. NOT AT ALL
CONVINCED THAT THE INITIAL BAND OF RAIN WILL PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.
THIS IS BECAUSE THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED...NOT TAPPING
INTO THE STRONG 0-1KM SHEAR. OVERALL...CAPES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ARE ALSO THIN. BUT JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT...WHEN THE UPPER LOW
IS IN WEST CENTRAL SD...A SECOND SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
THE WAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...AS BY 21Z
WITH THE DRY SLOT IN PLACE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA COULD TAP INTO THE 0-1KM WIND SHEAR WHICH IS EXTREMELY STRONG.
IN FACT 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 250 IN THOSE AREAS...
JUXTAPOSED WITH SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY OF ELEVATED MU CAPE IN THE
925-850MB LAYER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...WHICH FINALLY NOSES
NORTHWARD. IF LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND THE JAMES VALLEY AREA FOR A BRIEF
TIME IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THE OTHER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR THE VERMILLION RIVER VALLEY WOULD LIKELY BE WINDS AROUND 60 TO
65 MPH AND HAIL UP TO QUARTERS. EVEN AT JUST 925MB...WIND SPEEDS ARE
AVERAGING 30 KNOTS TODAY...COUPLED WITH A JET STREAK OF 65 TO 75
KNOTS NUDGING UP INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SO IT WOULD NOT TAKE A LOT TO PUSH SEVERE WIND DOWN TO
THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT.

AND SPEAKING OF STOUT WINDS...IT WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES TODAY NEAR THE DRY SLOT. THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE MIXING POTENTIAL. BUT IF THAT AREA
MIXES HIGHER THAN EXPECTED...WIND ADVISORY TYPE WINDS COULD BE
OBTAINED IN AND CLOSE TO THE LOWER BRULE AREA. HIGHS TODAY ARE
PROBLEMATIC...TOTALLY DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF LATE DAY CLOUD COVER.
LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHEAST QUAD OF OUR FORECAST AREA MAY STAY IN THE
60S WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST. MID 70S ARE LIKELY IN
THE DRY SLOT. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF FAST WITH LOWS
STILL PRETTY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE REALLY NEVER IS A
WIND SHIFT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA USHERING IN COOLER AIR AS THE WAVE
LIFTS TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION. BUT RAIN COULD LINGER IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHWEST IA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VERY ACTIVE FORECAST IN THE MID RANGE AS A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.  ON WEDNESDAY...APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-29.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRATUS
WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING...THOUGH THAT MAY BE A LITTLE FAST.
OVERALL...THINK THE STRATUS WILL EVENTUALLY MIX OUT...AND AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME UNSTABLE.  INTERESTING SET UP BECAUSE
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT...AND
CONVERGENCE IS NOT THAT STRONG WITH VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT
...BUT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A STORM OR TO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH BETTER CONVECTIVE SET UP FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...AND HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA AND COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MUCH STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH
STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE DOWNRIGHT WINDS DAY THOUGH AS 925 HPA WINDS RUN
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30-40 KNOTS.  HAVE INCREASED WINDS ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES AS WIND ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY.  HAVE ALSO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AS A VEIL OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS DROPS DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  DESPITE THE MIXY CONDITIONS AND THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW...GUIDANCE VALUES STILL LOOKED TO WARM BASED ON TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND COOLED HIGHS FOR FRIDAY COMPARED TO GUIDANCE.

MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  A FEW
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MAY DROP DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH THE OVERALL WEATHER TREND FOR THE
KHON...KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES. BUT CONVERSELY...CONFIDENCE IS
SHAKY AT BEST WITH THE SMALL SCALE DETAILS INVOLVING EXACT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND STRATUS POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY...MANY OF
THE MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM...RAP AND GFS HAVE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BASED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WHERE NO STRATUS EXISTS.
THAT SAID...OBSERVATIONS SHOW A TON OF STRATUS IN THE IFR AND LIFR
CATEGORIES INCHING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST ALONG THE
EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR. EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS MAY SHIFT A BIT TO THE
SOUTHEAST...LIFR STRATUS IS ALSO ABUNDANT IN SOUTHERN IOWA SO ONE
WOULD THINK THAT SOONER OR LATER...THIS WOULD ENCROACH INTO THE
KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES. MIXING THIS MORNING MAY NUDGE THE STRATUS
UP INTO THE VERY LOW END OF THE MVFR CATEGORY...BUT IT WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED AND KFSD AND KSUX TAFS UPDATED WHEN NEEDED.
OTHERWISE THE PRECIP TREND FOR KFSD AND KSUX IS SIMILAR BECAUSE
THE TIMING OF THE RAIN/THUNDER BAND IS SIMILAR FOR THE TWO SITES.
TONIGHT...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STRATUS MAY HANG ON FOR
KFSD IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...BUT COULD BREAK OUT AT KSUX BEING
FURTHER SOUTH.

KHON IS ALSO TRICKY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MVFR STRATUS...
BORDERLINE IFR...WILL DEVELOP FOR KHON BY AROUND 15Z. SPOTTY
STRATUS DOES EXIST CURRENTLY IN EAST CENTRAL SD BUT IS HARD TO SEE
DUE TO THE THICK HIGH CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOST CONCERNING
FOR KHON HOWEVER IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE AND DRY SLOT.
THIS WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR THE 21Z TO 23Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KABR 301115
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
615 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A POWERFUL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA WILL IMPACT THIS CWA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS TO MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS
OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BUFFER SOUNDING AT KPIR
INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS...WITH A PEAK GUST OF
45 KNOTS. THUS A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL SD.

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS WORRIED ABOUT THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY LIMITING SEVERE WEATHER. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TODAY. ONE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH A NOTICEABLE DRY SLOT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO SHOULD
ROTATE INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR WITHIN A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY BUT EXCELLENT SHEAR TO RESULT IN LOW
TOPPED SUPERCELLS. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS AND
0-1 KM ENERGY HELICITY INDEX OVER 2 SUGGEST TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THUS WILL MENTION SEVERE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH NORTH OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO PUSH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECWMF IS THE MUCH
STRONGER MODEL WITH WINDS AND MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH ANY PRECIP.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH DRIER. WILL RAMP UP WINDS
FOR FRIDAY AND LEAVE POPS AS IS...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HAVE TO
BE RAMPED UP ON FUTURE SHIFTS IF MODELS COME AROUND TO WET ECWMF.
COOL AIRMASS ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF FROST TO MOST OF
THE AREA...SPLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER AIR
RETURNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANY FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVES LOOK TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KMBG AND KABR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30KTS WILL
CONTINUE MOST OF DAY. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM
     MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY-SULLY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SCARLETT
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 301115
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
615 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A POWERFUL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA WILL IMPACT THIS CWA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS TO MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS
OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BUFFER SOUNDING AT KPIR
INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS...WITH A PEAK GUST OF
45 KNOTS. THUS A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL SD.

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS WORRIED ABOUT THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY LIMITING SEVERE WEATHER. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TODAY. ONE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH A NOTICEABLE DRY SLOT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO SHOULD
ROTATE INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR WITHIN A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY BUT EXCELLENT SHEAR TO RESULT IN LOW
TOPPED SUPERCELLS. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS AND
0-1 KM ENERGY HELICITY INDEX OVER 2 SUGGEST TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THUS WILL MENTION SEVERE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH NORTH OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO PUSH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECWMF IS THE MUCH
STRONGER MODEL WITH WINDS AND MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH ANY PRECIP.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH DRIER. WILL RAMP UP WINDS
FOR FRIDAY AND LEAVE POPS AS IS...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HAVE TO
BE RAMPED UP ON FUTURE SHIFTS IF MODELS COME AROUND TO WET ECWMF.
COOL AIRMASS ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF FROST TO MOST OF
THE AREA...SPLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER AIR
RETURNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANY FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVES LOOK TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KMBG AND KABR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30KTS WILL
CONTINUE MOST OF DAY. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM
     MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY-SULLY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SCARLETT
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 301115
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
615 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A POWERFUL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA WILL IMPACT THIS CWA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS TO MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS
OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BUFFER SOUNDING AT KPIR
INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS...WITH A PEAK GUST OF
45 KNOTS. THUS A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL SD.

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS WORRIED ABOUT THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY LIMITING SEVERE WEATHER. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TODAY. ONE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH A NOTICEABLE DRY SLOT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO SHOULD
ROTATE INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR WITHIN A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY BUT EXCELLENT SHEAR TO RESULT IN LOW
TOPPED SUPERCELLS. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS AND
0-1 KM ENERGY HELICITY INDEX OVER 2 SUGGEST TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THUS WILL MENTION SEVERE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH NORTH OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO PUSH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECWMF IS THE MUCH
STRONGER MODEL WITH WINDS AND MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH ANY PRECIP.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH DRIER. WILL RAMP UP WINDS
FOR FRIDAY AND LEAVE POPS AS IS...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HAVE TO
BE RAMPED UP ON FUTURE SHIFTS IF MODELS COME AROUND TO WET ECWMF.
COOL AIRMASS ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF FROST TO MOST OF
THE AREA...SPLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER AIR
RETURNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANY FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVES LOOK TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KMBG AND KABR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30KTS WILL
CONTINUE MOST OF DAY. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM
     MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY-SULLY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SCARLETT
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 301115
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
615 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A POWERFUL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA WILL IMPACT THIS CWA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS TO MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS
OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BUFFER SOUNDING AT KPIR
INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS...WITH A PEAK GUST OF
45 KNOTS. THUS A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL SD.

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS WORRIED ABOUT THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY LIMITING SEVERE WEATHER. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TODAY. ONE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH A NOTICEABLE DRY SLOT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO SHOULD
ROTATE INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR WITHIN A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY BUT EXCELLENT SHEAR TO RESULT IN LOW
TOPPED SUPERCELLS. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS AND
0-1 KM ENERGY HELICITY INDEX OVER 2 SUGGEST TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THUS WILL MENTION SEVERE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH NORTH OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO PUSH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECWMF IS THE MUCH
STRONGER MODEL WITH WINDS AND MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH ANY PRECIP.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH DRIER. WILL RAMP UP WINDS
FOR FRIDAY AND LEAVE POPS AS IS...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HAVE TO
BE RAMPED UP ON FUTURE SHIFTS IF MODELS COME AROUND TO WET ECWMF.
COOL AIRMASS ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF FROST TO MOST OF
THE AREA...SPLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER AIR
RETURNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANY FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVES LOOK TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KMBG AND KABR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30KTS WILL
CONTINUE MOST OF DAY. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM
     MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY-SULLY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SCARLETT
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 300848
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
348 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STILL LOOKING AT A VERY STRONG SYSTEM MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SYNOPTICALLY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL SD TODAY...BEFORE ENTERING CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING. THE
SYSTEM IS STACKED SO THE SURFACE LOW IS FOLLOWING THE PLACEMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT JUTTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

THE DRY SLOT IS CURRENTLY VISIBLE IN FAR WESTERN KS AND SOUTHWEST
NEB...AND IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD IMPACTING OUR WESTERN ZONES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. AHEAD OF IT...EXPECTING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG THE FIRST SHORT WAVE. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THE AREA TO FOCUS ON IS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY
SLOT...AND THE DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK LOOKS LIKE IT HAS IT NAILED
ENCOMPASSING THE JAMES AND VERMILLION RIVER VALLEYS... WHICH IS ALSO
WHAT WE WERE THINKING YESTERDAY. THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST
IS EXACT TIMING WHEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR. NOT AT ALL
CONVINCED THAT THE INITIAL BAND OF RAIN WILL PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.
THIS IS BECAUSE THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED...NOT TAPPING
INTO THE STRONG 0-1KM SHEAR. OVERALL...CAPES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ARE ALSO THIN. BUT JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT...WHEN THE UPPER LOW
IS IN WEST CENTRAL SD...A SECOND SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
THE WAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...AS BY 21Z
WITH THE DRY SLOT IN PLACE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA COULD TAP INTO THE 0-1KM WIND SHEAR WHICH IS EXTREMELY STRONG.
IN FACT 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 250 IN THOSE AREAS...
JUXTAPOSED WITH SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY OF ELEVATED MU CAPE IN THE
925-850MB LAYER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...WHICH FINALLY NOSES
NORTHWARD. IF LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND THE JAMES VALLEY AREA FOR A BRIEF
TIME IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THE OTHER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR THE VERMILLION RIVER VALLEY WOULD LIKELY BE WINDS AROUND 60 TO
65 MPH AND HAIL UP TO QUARTERS. EVEN AT JUST 925MB...WIND SPEEDS ARE
AVERAGING 30 KNOTS TODAY...COUPLED WITH A JET STREAK OF 65 TO 75
KNOTS NUDGING UP INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SO IT WOULD NOT TAKE A LOT TO PUSH SEVERE WIND DOWN TO
THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT.

AND SPEAKING OF STOUT WINDS...IT WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES TODAY NEAR THE DRY SLOT. THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE MIXING POTENTIAL. BUT IF THAT AREA
MIXES HIGHER THAN EXPECTED...WIND ADVISORY TYPE WINDS COULD BE
OBTAINED IN AND CLOSE TO THE LOWER BRULE AREA. HIGHS TODAY ARE
PROBLEMATIC...TOTALLY DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF LATE DAY CLOUD COVER.
LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHEAST QUAD OF OUR FORECAST AREA MAY STAY IN THE
60S WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST. MID 70S ARE LIKELY IN
THE DRY SLOT. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF FAST WITH LOWS
STILL PRETTY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE REALLY NEVER IS A
WIND SHIFT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA USHERING IN COOLER AIR AS THE WAVE
LIFTS TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION. BUT RAIN COULD LINGER IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHWEST IA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VERY ACTIVE FORECAST IN THE MID RANGE AS A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.  ON WEDNESDAY...APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-29.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRATUS
WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING...THOUGH THAT MAY BE A LITTLE FAST.
OVERALL...THINK THE STRATUS WILL EVENTUALLY MIX OUT...AND AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME UNSTABLE.  INTERESTING SET UP BECAUSE
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT...AND
CONVERGENCE IS NOT THAT STRONG WITH VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT
...BUT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A STORM OR TO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH BETTER CONVECTIVE SET UP FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...AND HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA AND COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MUCH STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH
STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE DOWNRIGHT WINDS DAY THOUGH AS 925 HPA WINDS RUN
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30-40 KNOTS.  HAVE INCREASED WINDS ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES AS WIND ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY.  HAVE ALSO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AS A VEIL OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS DROPS DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  DESPITE THE MIXY CONDITIONS AND THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW...GUIDANCE VALUES STILL LOOKED TO WARM BASED ON TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND COOLED HIGHS FOR FRIDAY COMPARED TO GUIDANCE.

MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  A FEW
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MAY DROP DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOCAL AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...COVERAGE MAY REMAIN SCATTERED TO BROKEN FOR A BIT
BEFORE BECOMING OVERCAST.

THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A LINEAR BAND OF RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF NEBRASKA/KANSAS TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST LIMITED THUNDER WITHIN THIS RAIN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A RISE IN CEILINGS AFTER RAIN PASSES. TIMING OF ARRIVAL
BETWEEN 9AM AND 12PM. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SECONDARY
BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KUNR 300842
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
242 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW BETWEEN KAIA/KCDR/KIEN. UPPER LOW
NOW STACKED ON TOP OF SURFACE LOW PER WATER VAPOUR. FORCING AHEAD
OF SYSTEM PRONOUNCED WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG WARM FRONT FROM
LOW INTO CENTRAL SD. CONVECTION FEEDING STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE
FROM SOUTHWEST ND THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE NE PANHANDLE.
00Z NAM A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING AND THE 00Z GFS FARTHEST WEST. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
AND YOU END UP WITH THE BEST RAINS OCCURRING IN THE CURRENT FLOOD
WATCH AREA. HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FALL THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FEEDS INTO STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT/DEFORMATION ZONE. AS LOW
PASSES...RAPID SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AND WELL-
DEFINED ISALLOBARIC FORCING. COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT THAT
STRONG...BUT SUBSIDENCE/PRESSURE RISES BEHIND LOW SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A PERIOD OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS FROM WEST
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...BUT LIKELY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...STACKED SYSTEM RACES INTO SOUTHERN SK/MB AS IT WEAKENS.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME -SHRA OVER THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY...SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH SLICES THROUGH THE REGION WITH
BEST FORCING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND THUS HAVE
PAINTED BETTER POPS TOWARD THE SD/NE BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A STRONG
UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN WITH UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN AVERAGE THU/FRI...THEN WARM BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY...AND LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WITH IFR CIGS/VSBY. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING/FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY...WHILE GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE NE
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG
DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM K2WX TO KCUT TO FAR SOUTHWEST SD THIS
MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL THIS MORNING
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE RESULT MAY BE MINOR FLOODING OF
CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-024>031-
     041-042-072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ027-041>044.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
     MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ032-046-047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ026-030-031-
     072>074.

WY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
HYDROLOGY...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 300842
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
242 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW BETWEEN KAIA/KCDR/KIEN. UPPER LOW
NOW STACKED ON TOP OF SURFACE LOW PER WATER VAPOUR. FORCING AHEAD
OF SYSTEM PRONOUNCED WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG WARM FRONT FROM
LOW INTO CENTRAL SD. CONVECTION FEEDING STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE
FROM SOUTHWEST ND THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE NE PANHANDLE.
00Z NAM A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING AND THE 00Z GFS FARTHEST WEST. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
AND YOU END UP WITH THE BEST RAINS OCCURRING IN THE CURRENT FLOOD
WATCH AREA. HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FALL THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FEEDS INTO STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT/DEFORMATION ZONE. AS LOW
PASSES...RAPID SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AND WELL-
DEFINED ISALLOBARIC FORCING. COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT THAT
STRONG...BUT SUBSIDENCE/PRESSURE RISES BEHIND LOW SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A PERIOD OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS FROM WEST
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...BUT LIKELY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...STACKED SYSTEM RACES INTO SOUTHERN SK/MB AS IT WEAKENS.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME -SHRA OVER THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY...SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH SLICES THROUGH THE REGION WITH
BEST FORCING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND THUS HAVE
PAINTED BETTER POPS TOWARD THE SD/NE BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A STRONG
UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN WITH UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN AVERAGE THU/FRI...THEN WARM BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY...AND LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WITH IFR CIGS/VSBY. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING/FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY...WHILE GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE NE
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG
DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM K2WX TO KCUT TO FAR SOUTHWEST SD THIS
MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL THIS MORNING
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE RESULT MAY BE MINOR FLOODING OF
CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-024>031-
     041-042-072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ027-041>044.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
     MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ032-046-047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ026-030-031-
     072>074.

WY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
HYDROLOGY...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 300842
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
242 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW BETWEEN KAIA/KCDR/KIEN. UPPER LOW
NOW STACKED ON TOP OF SURFACE LOW PER WATER VAPOUR. FORCING AHEAD
OF SYSTEM PRONOUNCED WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG WARM FRONT FROM
LOW INTO CENTRAL SD. CONVECTION FEEDING STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE
FROM SOUTHWEST ND THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE NE PANHANDLE.
00Z NAM A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING AND THE 00Z GFS FARTHEST WEST. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
AND YOU END UP WITH THE BEST RAINS OCCURRING IN THE CURRENT FLOOD
WATCH AREA. HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FALL THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FEEDS INTO STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT/DEFORMATION ZONE. AS LOW
PASSES...RAPID SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AND WELL-
DEFINED ISALLOBARIC FORCING. COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT THAT
STRONG...BUT SUBSIDENCE/PRESSURE RISES BEHIND LOW SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A PERIOD OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS FROM WEST
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...BUT LIKELY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...STACKED SYSTEM RACES INTO SOUTHERN SK/MB AS IT WEAKENS.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME -SHRA OVER THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY...SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH SLICES THROUGH THE REGION WITH
BEST FORCING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND THUS HAVE
PAINTED BETTER POPS TOWARD THE SD/NE BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A STRONG
UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN WITH UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN AVERAGE THU/FRI...THEN WARM BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY...AND LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WITH IFR CIGS/VSBY. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING/FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY...WHILE GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE NE
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG
DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM K2WX TO KCUT TO FAR SOUTHWEST SD THIS
MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL THIS MORNING
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE RESULT MAY BE MINOR FLOODING OF
CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-024>031-
     041-042-072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ027-041>044.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
     MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ032-046-047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ026-030-031-
     072>074.

WY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
HYDROLOGY...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 300842
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
242 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW BETWEEN KAIA/KCDR/KIEN. UPPER LOW
NOW STACKED ON TOP OF SURFACE LOW PER WATER VAPOUR. FORCING AHEAD
OF SYSTEM PRONOUNCED WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG WARM FRONT FROM
LOW INTO CENTRAL SD. CONVECTION FEEDING STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE
FROM SOUTHWEST ND THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE NE PANHANDLE.
00Z NAM A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING AND THE 00Z GFS FARTHEST WEST. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
AND YOU END UP WITH THE BEST RAINS OCCURRING IN THE CURRENT FLOOD
WATCH AREA. HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FALL THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FEEDS INTO STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT/DEFORMATION ZONE. AS LOW
PASSES...RAPID SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AND WELL-
DEFINED ISALLOBARIC FORCING. COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT THAT
STRONG...BUT SUBSIDENCE/PRESSURE RISES BEHIND LOW SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A PERIOD OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS FROM WEST
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...BUT LIKELY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...STACKED SYSTEM RACES INTO SOUTHERN SK/MB AS IT WEAKENS.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME -SHRA OVER THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY...SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH SLICES THROUGH THE REGION WITH
BEST FORCING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND THUS HAVE
PAINTED BETTER POPS TOWARD THE SD/NE BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A STRONG
UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN WITH UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN AVERAGE THU/FRI...THEN WARM BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY...AND LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WITH IFR CIGS/VSBY. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING/FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY...WHILE GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE NE
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG
DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM K2WX TO KCUT TO FAR SOUTHWEST SD THIS
MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL THIS MORNING
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE RESULT MAY BE MINOR FLOODING OF
CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-024>031-
     041-042-072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ027-041>044.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
     MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ032-046-047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ026-030-031-
     072>074.

WY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
HYDROLOGY...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KABR 300841
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
341 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A POWERFUL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA WILL IMPACT THIS CWA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS TO MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS
OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BUFFER SOUNDING AT KPIR
INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS...WITH A PEAK GUST OF
45 KNOTS. THUS A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL SD.

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS WORRIED ABOUT THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY LIMITING SEVERE WEATHER. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TODAY. ONE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH A NOTICEABLE DRY SLOT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO SHOULD
ROTATE INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR WITHIN A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY BUT EXCELLENT SHEAR TO RESULT IN LOW
TOPPED SUPERCELLS. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS AND
0-1 KM ENERGY HELICITY INDEX OVER 2 SUGGEST TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THUS WILL MENTION SEVERE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH NORTH OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO PUSH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECWMF IS THE MUCH
STRONGER MODEL WITH WINDS AND MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH ANY PRECIP.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH DRIER. WILL RAMP UP WINDS
FOR FRIDAY AND LEAVE POPS AS IS...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HAVE TO
BE RAMPED UP ON FUTURE SHIFTS IF MODELS COME AROUND TO WET ECWMF.
COOL AIRMASS ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF FROST TO MOST OF
THE AREA...SPLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER AIR
RETURNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANY FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVES LOOK TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN SD TUESDAY. BANDS
OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND MAY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES INTERMITTENTLY. HI-RES MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP VERY SPOTTY
AND HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN ANY EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VCTS FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT AND
ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT KMBG/KPIR TUESDAY EVENING. PRIMARILY VFR CIGS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR BETWEEN 7Z AND 10Z. CIGS WILL
FLUCTUATE ON TUESDAY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM
     MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY-SULLY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 300841
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
341 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A POWERFUL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA WILL IMPACT THIS CWA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS TO MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS
OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BUFFER SOUNDING AT KPIR
INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS...WITH A PEAK GUST OF
45 KNOTS. THUS A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL SD.

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS WORRIED ABOUT THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY LIMITING SEVERE WEATHER. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TODAY. ONE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH A NOTICEABLE DRY SLOT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO SHOULD
ROTATE INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR WITHIN A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY BUT EXCELLENT SHEAR TO RESULT IN LOW
TOPPED SUPERCELLS. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS AND
0-1 KM ENERGY HELICITY INDEX OVER 2 SUGGEST TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THUS WILL MENTION SEVERE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH NORTH OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO PUSH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECWMF IS THE MUCH
STRONGER MODEL WITH WINDS AND MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH ANY PRECIP.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH DRIER. WILL RAMP UP WINDS
FOR FRIDAY AND LEAVE POPS AS IS...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HAVE TO
BE RAMPED UP ON FUTURE SHIFTS IF MODELS COME AROUND TO WET ECWMF.
COOL AIRMASS ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF FROST TO MOST OF
THE AREA...SPLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER AIR
RETURNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANY FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVES LOOK TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN SD TUESDAY. BANDS
OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND MAY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES INTERMITTENTLY. HI-RES MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP VERY SPOTTY
AND HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN ANY EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VCTS FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT AND
ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT KMBG/KPIR TUESDAY EVENING. PRIMARILY VFR CIGS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR BETWEEN 7Z AND 10Z. CIGS WILL
FLUCTUATE ON TUESDAY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM
     MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY-SULLY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 300841
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
341 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A POWERFUL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA WILL IMPACT THIS CWA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS TO MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS
OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BUFFER SOUNDING AT KPIR
INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS...WITH A PEAK GUST OF
45 KNOTS. THUS A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL SD.

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS WORRIED ABOUT THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY LIMITING SEVERE WEATHER. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TODAY. ONE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH A NOTICEABLE DRY SLOT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO SHOULD
ROTATE INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR WITHIN A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY BUT EXCELLENT SHEAR TO RESULT IN LOW
TOPPED SUPERCELLS. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS AND
0-1 KM ENERGY HELICITY INDEX OVER 2 SUGGEST TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THUS WILL MENTION SEVERE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH NORTH OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO PUSH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECWMF IS THE MUCH
STRONGER MODEL WITH WINDS AND MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH ANY PRECIP.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH DRIER. WILL RAMP UP WINDS
FOR FRIDAY AND LEAVE POPS AS IS...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HAVE TO
BE RAMPED UP ON FUTURE SHIFTS IF MODELS COME AROUND TO WET ECWMF.
COOL AIRMASS ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF FROST TO MOST OF
THE AREA...SPLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER AIR
RETURNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANY FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVES LOOK TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN SD TUESDAY. BANDS
OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND MAY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES INTERMITTENTLY. HI-RES MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP VERY SPOTTY
AND HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN ANY EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VCTS FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT AND
ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT KMBG/KPIR TUESDAY EVENING. PRIMARILY VFR CIGS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR BETWEEN 7Z AND 10Z. CIGS WILL
FLUCTUATE ON TUESDAY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM
     MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY-SULLY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 300841
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
341 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A POWERFUL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA WILL IMPACT THIS CWA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS TO MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS
OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BUFFER SOUNDING AT KPIR
INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS...WITH A PEAK GUST OF
45 KNOTS. THUS A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL SD.

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS WORRIED ABOUT THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY LIMITING SEVERE WEATHER. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TODAY. ONE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH A NOTICEABLE DRY SLOT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO SHOULD
ROTATE INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR WITHIN A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY BUT EXCELLENT SHEAR TO RESULT IN LOW
TOPPED SUPERCELLS. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS AND
0-1 KM ENERGY HELICITY INDEX OVER 2 SUGGEST TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THUS WILL MENTION SEVERE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH NORTH OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO PUSH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECWMF IS THE MUCH
STRONGER MODEL WITH WINDS AND MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH ANY PRECIP.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH DRIER. WILL RAMP UP WINDS
FOR FRIDAY AND LEAVE POPS AS IS...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HAVE TO
BE RAMPED UP ON FUTURE SHIFTS IF MODELS COME AROUND TO WET ECWMF.
COOL AIRMASS ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF FROST TO MOST OF
THE AREA...SPLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER AIR
RETURNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANY FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVES LOOK TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN SD TUESDAY. BANDS
OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND MAY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES INTERMITTENTLY. HI-RES MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP VERY SPOTTY
AND HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN ANY EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VCTS FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT AND
ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT KMBG/KPIR TUESDAY EVENING. PRIMARILY VFR CIGS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR BETWEEN 7Z AND 10Z. CIGS WILL
FLUCTUATE ON TUESDAY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM
     MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY-SULLY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 300523
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1223 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES MADE TO POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST
RADAR AND HI-RES MODELS. SLOWED DOWN EASTWARD PROGRESSION BY A FEW
HOURS AND INCREASED CURRENT POPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...WHICH IN TURN HAVE ALLOWED SFC TEMPS TO RISE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST HIGHS. RAINFALL REMAINS CONFINED TO WESTERN
SD WITH JUST A FEW VERY ISO LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF THE MISSOURI.
MODELS STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEEPENING THE SFC LOW
OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AND MOVING IT NORTH INTO
SOUTHWEST SD BY TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT...MOST OF THE RAINFALL
WILL BE OVER WESTERN SD. THE INTERESTING DETAILS LIE IN THE
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW IN REGARDS TO INSTABILITY AND CLOUD COVER.
THIS IS WHERE THE HI RES MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS
TO CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST SD BASED ON WHAT MODELS ARE SHOWING. ALTHOUGH...IT
WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. IF AREAS FURTHER NORTH SEE ANY
BREAKS IN CLOUDS THEN DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR. REGARDLESS...LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE IMPRESSIVE ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND
STORMS THAT MANAGE TO GET GOING OVER EASTERN SD COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A SMALL TORNADO THREAT. THIS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THOUGH WHERE
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY SETS UP...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE OVER
SOUTHEAST SD BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOUD COVER TRENDS. WINDS
WILL BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AND COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PLACES. FAVORED
AREA FOR THIS THOUGH LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WILL LEAVE
FOR OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO CONSIDER. SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING DRYING CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE MODELS SHOW A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS RIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL US TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACROSS OUR CWA WILL BRING A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT NEAR NORMAL
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE MODELS THEN SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN CANADA DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY ALONG WITH
BREEZY/WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER AND
MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CLEARING SKIES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
20S TO THE LOWER 30S...THERE COULD BE SOME FROST FORMATION.
OTHERWISE...THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
TRANSITIONING TO LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US
WITH LARGE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL PUT US IN A
DRY PATTERN WITH GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN SD TUESDAY. BANDS
OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND MAY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES INTERMITTENTLY. HI-RES MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP VERY SPOTTY
AND HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN ANY EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VCTS FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT AND
ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT KMBG/KPIR TUESDAY EVENING. PRIMARILY VFR CIGS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR BETWEEN 7Z AND 10Z. CIGS WILL
FLUCTUATE ON TUESDAY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...WISE/SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 300523
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1223 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES MADE TO POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST
RADAR AND HI-RES MODELS. SLOWED DOWN EASTWARD PROGRESSION BY A FEW
HOURS AND INCREASED CURRENT POPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...WHICH IN TURN HAVE ALLOWED SFC TEMPS TO RISE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST HIGHS. RAINFALL REMAINS CONFINED TO WESTERN
SD WITH JUST A FEW VERY ISO LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF THE MISSOURI.
MODELS STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEEPENING THE SFC LOW
OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AND MOVING IT NORTH INTO
SOUTHWEST SD BY TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT...MOST OF THE RAINFALL
WILL BE OVER WESTERN SD. THE INTERESTING DETAILS LIE IN THE
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW IN REGARDS TO INSTABILITY AND CLOUD COVER.
THIS IS WHERE THE HI RES MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS
TO CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST SD BASED ON WHAT MODELS ARE SHOWING. ALTHOUGH...IT
WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. IF AREAS FURTHER NORTH SEE ANY
BREAKS IN CLOUDS THEN DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR. REGARDLESS...LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE IMPRESSIVE ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND
STORMS THAT MANAGE TO GET GOING OVER EASTERN SD COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A SMALL TORNADO THREAT. THIS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THOUGH WHERE
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY SETS UP...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE OVER
SOUTHEAST SD BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOUD COVER TRENDS. WINDS
WILL BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AND COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PLACES. FAVORED
AREA FOR THIS THOUGH LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WILL LEAVE
FOR OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO CONSIDER. SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING DRYING CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE MODELS SHOW A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS RIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL US TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACROSS OUR CWA WILL BRING A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT NEAR NORMAL
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE MODELS THEN SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN CANADA DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY ALONG WITH
BREEZY/WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER AND
MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CLEARING SKIES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
20S TO THE LOWER 30S...THERE COULD BE SOME FROST FORMATION.
OTHERWISE...THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
TRANSITIONING TO LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US
WITH LARGE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL PUT US IN A
DRY PATTERN WITH GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN SD TUESDAY. BANDS
OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND MAY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES INTERMITTENTLY. HI-RES MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP VERY SPOTTY
AND HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN ANY EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VCTS FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT AND
ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT KMBG/KPIR TUESDAY EVENING. PRIMARILY VFR CIGS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR BETWEEN 7Z AND 10Z. CIGS WILL
FLUCTUATE ON TUESDAY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...WISE/SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 300506
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1106 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES DEEPENING LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO. WATER VAPOR SHOW INTENSE WAVE EJECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
COLORADO. LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. SHORT TERM MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING
OFF ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
NEAR KEIN-KPHP TUESDAY MORNING. STILL ON TRACK FOR HEAVY RAIN
OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALL-
RISE COUPLET ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW...HAVE TRENDED WINDS UP
FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE RAPID CITY AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENING AS AN UPPER
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO/WRN WYOMING MOVES EASTWARD. EASTERLY
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS IS KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG OVER MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INITIAL BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SPIN EASTWARD...BECOMING TIGHTLY WRAPPED OVER THE CWA BY 12Z
TUESDAY...THEN MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY EVE. FORCING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG WITH A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OF MOISTURE
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STRONG AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO
DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH TONIGHT. SUSTAINED 850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE WAVES
OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER LIFT IF
AT A MAXIMUM. 1 TO 2.5 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL...ESP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. DUE TO THE SOAKING RAIN THAT FELL OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING...ESP OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE BLACK HILLS
AREA...COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT IN AS THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND THE INCOMING HIGH...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS A
120-KT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE ECM IS HINTING AT A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS DRY. UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY...AND LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH IFR CIGS/VSBY. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER SOME AREAS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOME AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. ANOTHER 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     024>031-041-042-072>074.

WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7
HYDROLOGY...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 300506
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1106 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES DEEPENING LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO. WATER VAPOR SHOW INTENSE WAVE EJECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
COLORADO. LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. SHORT TERM MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING
OFF ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
NEAR KEIN-KPHP TUESDAY MORNING. STILL ON TRACK FOR HEAVY RAIN
OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALL-
RISE COUPLET ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW...HAVE TRENDED WINDS UP
FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE RAPID CITY AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENING AS AN UPPER
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO/WRN WYOMING MOVES EASTWARD. EASTERLY
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS IS KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG OVER MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INITIAL BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SPIN EASTWARD...BECOMING TIGHTLY WRAPPED OVER THE CWA BY 12Z
TUESDAY...THEN MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY EVE. FORCING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG WITH A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OF MOISTURE
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STRONG AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO
DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH TONIGHT. SUSTAINED 850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE WAVES
OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER LIFT IF
AT A MAXIMUM. 1 TO 2.5 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL...ESP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. DUE TO THE SOAKING RAIN THAT FELL OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING...ESP OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE BLACK HILLS
AREA...COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT IN AS THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND THE INCOMING HIGH...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS A
120-KT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE ECM IS HINTING AT A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS DRY. UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY...AND LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH IFR CIGS/VSBY. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER SOME AREAS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOME AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. ANOTHER 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     024>031-041-042-072>074.

WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7
HYDROLOGY...10







000
FXUS63 KFSD 300448
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1148 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

STRATUS FAIRLY MINIMAL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH JUST A RESIDUAL
PATCH DRIFTING WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM MINNESOTA ON EASTERLY FLOW
WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DEW POINTS. EXPECT THAT AREA JUST
NORTH OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH MOISTURE POOLING WOULD BE SOURCE
OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...STARTING NEAR THE MISSOURI
RIVER. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LINED UP THROUGH THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MODELS REALLY HAVE SLOWED UP APPROACH OF CONVECTION...AND SEEMS
TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO MUCH SO BASED ON CURRENT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
HAVE SOME SLOWING OF NET PROPAGATION WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION TO THE
EAST...BUT AFTER INITIAL LINE PERHAPS WEAKENS A BIT...SECONDARY
WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE COVERAGE OF
PRECIP DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING ALONG ADVANCING
BOUNDARY...AND HAVE BOOSTED LATER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
POPS A BIT AS AREA PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

OTHERWISE...ONE OTHER CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST GOING OUT LATER
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT MAY BE MORE CONCENTRATED
ALONG SECONDARY CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE JAMES VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. QUITE IMPRESSIVE SHEAR AND IF CAN GET
CEILINGS CAN BREAK OUT BEHIND CONVECTION AND CONTRIBUTE TO
SLIGHTLY MORE SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION. IN THIS CASE...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND SOME
LOWER TOPPED VARIETY WOULD BE FAVORED ALONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.
AREAS CLOSER TO THE DRYLINE/TRIPLE POINT TOWARD K9V9-KHON AXIS
WOULD BE OF GREATER INTEREST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS STILL AROUND TO MANIFEST ITSELF IN
EVENTUAL WIDESPREAD REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP SOUTH ALL THE WAY
TO SUX/SLB WHERE THEY WERE AVOIDED LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...STRONG WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
RAIN/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF A FAIRLY SOLID BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND
FURTHER EAST IN THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASING INSTABILITY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS PER CONSISTENT
SPC OUTLOOKS. POPS FOR TUESDAY WILL BE KEPT PRETTY HIGH BECAUSE OF
THE EXPECTED SOLID NATURE OF THE INITIAL BAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE TOO GREAT UNLESS THE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON PRODUCES DECENT STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN IN THAT
CASE...THE LIKELY DECENT STORM MOTION SHOULD HELP HOLD THE MAX
POTENTIAL DOWN.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TAMELY TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WORKING TO KEEP LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE. CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL OF COURSE KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST DOWN
TUESDAY...THOUGH CLEARING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER MAY RESULT IN
BETTER WARMING THERE. MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL ON HIGHS WITH MAV
LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER.

WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PICK UP TO THE BREEZY OR WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY
MAINLY IN THE WEST CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING
UPPER WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 IN THE EARLY EVENING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST IOWA. THE LOW END SEVERE THREAT
WILL ALSO LARGELY COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
STALLS OUT. MEANWHILE...A SECOND DEEP SHORT WAVE EMERGES IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND GRADUALLY SLIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS...PERHAPS WITH
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALSO SETTLE INTO TO REGION.  WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
NEAR 70...BUT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...LIGHT RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
60S ON THURSDAY.

BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AND EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY OUT THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WINDY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL MAKE FOR A BRISK FALL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. WINDS TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS. THE GFS DROPS A
MID LEVEL WAVE ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...HOWEVER WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN HALF
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOCAL AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...COVERAGE MAY REMAIN SCATTERED TO BROKEN FOR A BIT
BEFORE BECOMING OVERCAST.

THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A LINEAR BAND OF RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF NEBRASKA/KANSAS TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST LIMITED THUNDER WITHIN THIS RAIN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A RISE IN CEILINGS AFTER RAIN PASSES. TIMING OF ARRIVAL
BETWEEN 9AM AND 12PM. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SECONDARY
BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KFSD 300448
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1148 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

STRATUS FAIRLY MINIMAL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH JUST A RESIDUAL
PATCH DRIFTING WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM MINNESOTA ON EASTERLY FLOW
WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DEW POINTS. EXPECT THAT AREA JUST
NORTH OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH MOISTURE POOLING WOULD BE SOURCE
OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...STARTING NEAR THE MISSOURI
RIVER. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LINED UP THROUGH THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MODELS REALLY HAVE SLOWED UP APPROACH OF CONVECTION...AND SEEMS
TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO MUCH SO BASED ON CURRENT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
HAVE SOME SLOWING OF NET PROPAGATION WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION TO THE
EAST...BUT AFTER INITIAL LINE PERHAPS WEAKENS A BIT...SECONDARY
WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE COVERAGE OF
PRECIP DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING ALONG ADVANCING
BOUNDARY...AND HAVE BOOSTED LATER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
POPS A BIT AS AREA PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

OTHERWISE...ONE OTHER CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST GOING OUT LATER
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT MAY BE MORE CONCENTRATED
ALONG SECONDARY CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE JAMES VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. QUITE IMPRESSIVE SHEAR AND IF CAN GET
CEILINGS CAN BREAK OUT BEHIND CONVECTION AND CONTRIBUTE TO
SLIGHTLY MORE SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION. IN THIS CASE...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND SOME
LOWER TOPPED VARIETY WOULD BE FAVORED ALONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.
AREAS CLOSER TO THE DRYLINE/TRIPLE POINT TOWARD K9V9-KHON AXIS
WOULD BE OF GREATER INTEREST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS STILL AROUND TO MANIFEST ITSELF IN
EVENTUAL WIDESPREAD REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP SOUTH ALL THE WAY
TO SUX/SLB WHERE THEY WERE AVOIDED LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...STRONG WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
RAIN/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF A FAIRLY SOLID BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND
FURTHER EAST IN THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASING INSTABILITY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS PER CONSISTENT
SPC OUTLOOKS. POPS FOR TUESDAY WILL BE KEPT PRETTY HIGH BECAUSE OF
THE EXPECTED SOLID NATURE OF THE INITIAL BAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE TOO GREAT UNLESS THE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON PRODUCES DECENT STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN IN THAT
CASE...THE LIKELY DECENT STORM MOTION SHOULD HELP HOLD THE MAX
POTENTIAL DOWN.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TAMELY TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WORKING TO KEEP LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE. CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL OF COURSE KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST DOWN
TUESDAY...THOUGH CLEARING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER MAY RESULT IN
BETTER WARMING THERE. MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL ON HIGHS WITH MAV
LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER.

WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PICK UP TO THE BREEZY OR WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY
MAINLY IN THE WEST CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING
UPPER WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 IN THE EARLY EVENING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST IOWA. THE LOW END SEVERE THREAT
WILL ALSO LARGELY COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
STALLS OUT. MEANWHILE...A SECOND DEEP SHORT WAVE EMERGES IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND GRADUALLY SLIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS...PERHAPS WITH
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALSO SETTLE INTO TO REGION.  WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
NEAR 70...BUT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...LIGHT RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
60S ON THURSDAY.

BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AND EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY OUT THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WINDY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL MAKE FOR A BRISK FALL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. WINDS TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS. THE GFS DROPS A
MID LEVEL WAVE ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...HOWEVER WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN HALF
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOCAL AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...COVERAGE MAY REMAIN SCATTERED TO BROKEN FOR A BIT
BEFORE BECOMING OVERCAST.

THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A LINEAR BAND OF RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF NEBRASKA/KANSAS TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST LIMITED THUNDER WITHIN THIS RAIN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A RISE IN CEILINGS AFTER RAIN PASSES. TIMING OF ARRIVAL
BETWEEN 9AM AND 12PM. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SECONDARY
BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KFSD 300448
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1148 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

STRATUS FAIRLY MINIMAL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH JUST A RESIDUAL
PATCH DRIFTING WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM MINNESOTA ON EASTERLY FLOW
WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DEW POINTS. EXPECT THAT AREA JUST
NORTH OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH MOISTURE POOLING WOULD BE SOURCE
OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...STARTING NEAR THE MISSOURI
RIVER. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LINED UP THROUGH THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MODELS REALLY HAVE SLOWED UP APPROACH OF CONVECTION...AND SEEMS
TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO MUCH SO BASED ON CURRENT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
HAVE SOME SLOWING OF NET PROPAGATION WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION TO THE
EAST...BUT AFTER INITIAL LINE PERHAPS WEAKENS A BIT...SECONDARY
WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE COVERAGE OF
PRECIP DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING ALONG ADVANCING
BOUNDARY...AND HAVE BOOSTED LATER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
POPS A BIT AS AREA PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

OTHERWISE...ONE OTHER CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST GOING OUT LATER
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT MAY BE MORE CONCENTRATED
ALONG SECONDARY CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE JAMES VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. QUITE IMPRESSIVE SHEAR AND IF CAN GET
CEILINGS CAN BREAK OUT BEHIND CONVECTION AND CONTRIBUTE TO
SLIGHTLY MORE SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION. IN THIS CASE...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND SOME
LOWER TOPPED VARIETY WOULD BE FAVORED ALONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.
AREAS CLOSER TO THE DRYLINE/TRIPLE POINT TOWARD K9V9-KHON AXIS
WOULD BE OF GREATER INTEREST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS STILL AROUND TO MANIFEST ITSELF IN
EVENTUAL WIDESPREAD REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP SOUTH ALL THE WAY
TO SUX/SLB WHERE THEY WERE AVOIDED LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...STRONG WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
RAIN/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF A FAIRLY SOLID BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND
FURTHER EAST IN THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASING INSTABILITY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS PER CONSISTENT
SPC OUTLOOKS. POPS FOR TUESDAY WILL BE KEPT PRETTY HIGH BECAUSE OF
THE EXPECTED SOLID NATURE OF THE INITIAL BAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE TOO GREAT UNLESS THE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON PRODUCES DECENT STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN IN THAT
CASE...THE LIKELY DECENT STORM MOTION SHOULD HELP HOLD THE MAX
POTENTIAL DOWN.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TAMELY TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WORKING TO KEEP LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE. CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL OF COURSE KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST DOWN
TUESDAY...THOUGH CLEARING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER MAY RESULT IN
BETTER WARMING THERE. MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL ON HIGHS WITH MAV
LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER.

WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PICK UP TO THE BREEZY OR WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY
MAINLY IN THE WEST CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING
UPPER WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 IN THE EARLY EVENING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST IOWA. THE LOW END SEVERE THREAT
WILL ALSO LARGELY COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
STALLS OUT. MEANWHILE...A SECOND DEEP SHORT WAVE EMERGES IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND GRADUALLY SLIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS...PERHAPS WITH
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALSO SETTLE INTO TO REGION.  WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
NEAR 70...BUT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...LIGHT RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
60S ON THURSDAY.

BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AND EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY OUT THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WINDY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL MAKE FOR A BRISK FALL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. WINDS TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS. THE GFS DROPS A
MID LEVEL WAVE ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...HOWEVER WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN HALF
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOCAL AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...COVERAGE MAY REMAIN SCATTERED TO BROKEN FOR A BIT
BEFORE BECOMING OVERCAST.

THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A LINEAR BAND OF RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF NEBRASKA/KANSAS TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST LIMITED THUNDER WITHIN THIS RAIN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A RISE IN CEILINGS AFTER RAIN PASSES. TIMING OF ARRIVAL
BETWEEN 9AM AND 12PM. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SECONDARY
BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KFSD 300448
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1148 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

STRATUS FAIRLY MINIMAL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH JUST A RESIDUAL
PATCH DRIFTING WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM MINNESOTA ON EASTERLY FLOW
WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DEW POINTS. EXPECT THAT AREA JUST
NORTH OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH MOISTURE POOLING WOULD BE SOURCE
OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...STARTING NEAR THE MISSOURI
RIVER. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LINED UP THROUGH THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MODELS REALLY HAVE SLOWED UP APPROACH OF CONVECTION...AND SEEMS
TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO MUCH SO BASED ON CURRENT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
HAVE SOME SLOWING OF NET PROPAGATION WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION TO THE
EAST...BUT AFTER INITIAL LINE PERHAPS WEAKENS A BIT...SECONDARY
WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE COVERAGE OF
PRECIP DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING ALONG ADVANCING
BOUNDARY...AND HAVE BOOSTED LATER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
POPS A BIT AS AREA PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

OTHERWISE...ONE OTHER CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST GOING OUT LATER
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT MAY BE MORE CONCENTRATED
ALONG SECONDARY CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE JAMES VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. QUITE IMPRESSIVE SHEAR AND IF CAN GET
CEILINGS CAN BREAK OUT BEHIND CONVECTION AND CONTRIBUTE TO
SLIGHTLY MORE SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION. IN THIS CASE...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND SOME
LOWER TOPPED VARIETY WOULD BE FAVORED ALONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.
AREAS CLOSER TO THE DRYLINE/TRIPLE POINT TOWARD K9V9-KHON AXIS
WOULD BE OF GREATER INTEREST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS STILL AROUND TO MANIFEST ITSELF IN
EVENTUAL WIDESPREAD REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP SOUTH ALL THE WAY
TO SUX/SLB WHERE THEY WERE AVOIDED LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...STRONG WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
RAIN/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF A FAIRLY SOLID BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND
FURTHER EAST IN THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASING INSTABILITY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS PER CONSISTENT
SPC OUTLOOKS. POPS FOR TUESDAY WILL BE KEPT PRETTY HIGH BECAUSE OF
THE EXPECTED SOLID NATURE OF THE INITIAL BAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE TOO GREAT UNLESS THE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON PRODUCES DECENT STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN IN THAT
CASE...THE LIKELY DECENT STORM MOTION SHOULD HELP HOLD THE MAX
POTENTIAL DOWN.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TAMELY TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WORKING TO KEEP LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE. CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL OF COURSE KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST DOWN
TUESDAY...THOUGH CLEARING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER MAY RESULT IN
BETTER WARMING THERE. MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL ON HIGHS WITH MAV
LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER.

WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PICK UP TO THE BREEZY OR WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY
MAINLY IN THE WEST CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING
UPPER WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 IN THE EARLY EVENING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST IOWA. THE LOW END SEVERE THREAT
WILL ALSO LARGELY COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
STALLS OUT. MEANWHILE...A SECOND DEEP SHORT WAVE EMERGES IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND GRADUALLY SLIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS...PERHAPS WITH
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALSO SETTLE INTO TO REGION.  WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
NEAR 70...BUT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...LIGHT RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
60S ON THURSDAY.

BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AND EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY OUT THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WINDY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL MAKE FOR A BRISK FALL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. WINDS TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS. THE GFS DROPS A
MID LEVEL WAVE ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...HOWEVER WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN HALF
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOCAL AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...COVERAGE MAY REMAIN SCATTERED TO BROKEN FOR A BIT
BEFORE BECOMING OVERCAST.

THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A LINEAR BAND OF RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF NEBRASKA/KANSAS TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST LIMITED THUNDER WITHIN THIS RAIN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A RISE IN CEILINGS AFTER RAIN PASSES. TIMING OF ARRIVAL
BETWEEN 9AM AND 12PM. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SECONDARY
BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KFSD 300326
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1026 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

STRATUS FAIRLY MINIMAL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH JUST A RESIDUAL
PATCH DRIFTING WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM MINNESOTA ON EASTERLY FLOW
WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DEW POINTS. EXPECT THAT AREA JUST
NORTH OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH MOISTURE POOLING WOULD BE SOURCE
OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...STARTING NEAR THE MISSOURI
RIVER. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LINED UP THROUGH THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MODELS REALLY HAVE SLOWED UP APPROACH OF CONVECTION...AND SEEMS
TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO MUCH SO BASED ON CURRENT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
HAVE SOME SLOWING OF NET PROPAGATION WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION TO THE
EAST...BUT AFTER INITIAL LINE PERHAPS WEAKENS A BIT...SECONDARY
WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE COVERAGE OF
PRECIP DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING ALONG ADVANCING
BOUNDARY...AND HAVE BOOSTED LATER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
POPS A BIT AS AREA PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

OTHERWISE...ONE OTHER CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST GOING OUT LATER
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT MAY BE MORE CONCENTRATED
ALONG SECONDARY CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE JAMES VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. QUITE IMPRESSIVE SHEAR AND IF CAN GET
CEILINGS CAN BREAK OUT BEHIND CONVECTION AND CONTRIBUTE TO
SLIGHTLY MORE SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION. IN THIS CASE...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND SOME
LOWER TOPPED VARIETY WOULD BE FAVORED ALONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.
AREAS CLOSER TO THE DRYLINE/TRIPLE POINT TOWARD K9V9-KHON AXIS
WOULD BE OF GREATER INTEREST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS STILL AROUND TO MANIFEST ITSELF IN
EVENTUAL WIDESPREAD REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP SOUTH ALL THE WAY
TO SUX/SLB WHERE THEY WERE AVOIDED LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...STRONG WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
RAIN/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF A FAIRLY SOLID BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND
FURTHER EAST IN THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASING INSTABILITY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS PER CONSISTENT
SPC OUTLOOKS. POPS FOR TUESDAY WILL BE KEPT PRETTY HIGH BECAUSE OF
THE EXPECTED SOLID NATURE OF THE INITIAL BAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE TOO GREAT UNLESS THE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON PRODUCES DECENT STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN IN THAT
CASE...THE LIKELY DECENT STORM MOTION SHOULD HELP HOLD THE MAX
POTENTIAL DOWN.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TAMELY TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WORKING TO KEEP LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE. CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL OF COURSE KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST DOWN
TUESDAY...THOUGH CLEARING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER MAY RESULT IN
BETTER WARMING THERE. MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL ON HIGHS WITH MAV
LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER.

WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PICK UP TO THE BREEZY OR WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY
MAINLY IN THE WEST CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING
UPPER WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 IN THE EARLY EVENING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST IOWA. THE LOW END SEVERE THREAT
WILL ALSO LARGELY COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
STALLS OUT. MEANWHILE...A SECOND DEEP SHORT WAVE EMERGES IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND GRADUALLY SLIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS...PERHAPS WITH
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALSO SETTLE INTO TO REGION.  WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
NEAR 70...BUT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...LIGHT RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
60S ON THURSDAY.

BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AND EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY OUT THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WINDY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL MAKE FOR A BRISK FALL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. WINDS TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS. THE GFS DROPS A
MID LEVEL WAVE ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...HOWEVER WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN HALF
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WARM FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STRATUS DISSOLVING BY MID-AFTN. SHORT TERM MODELS
DOING A POOR JOB HANDLING THE LOW-LVL MOISTURE...BUT IN GENERAL
ANTICIPATING REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT. THESE
CEILINGS WILL HOLD ON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A LINEAR BAND
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FEEL
THE THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN LOW...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

THIS RAIN WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
CEILINGS MAY TRY TO LIFT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
CLEARING MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT POISED TO
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KUNR 300008
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
608 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES DEEPENING LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO. WATER VAPOR SHOW INTENSE WAVE EJECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
COLORADO. LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. SHORT TERM MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING
OFF ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
NEAR KEIN-KPHP TUESDAY MORNING. STILL ON TRACK FOR HEAVY RAIN
OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALL-
RISE COUPLET ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW...HAVE TRENDED WINDS UP
FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE RAPID CITY AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENING AS AN UPPER
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO/WRN WYOMING MOVES EASTWARD. EASTERLY
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS IS KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG OVER MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INITIAL BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SPIN EASTWARD...BECOMING TIGHTLY WRAPPED OVER THE CWA BY 12Z
TUESDAY...THEN MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY EVE. FORCING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG WITH A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OF MOISTURE
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STRONG AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO
DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH TONIGHT. SUSTAINED 850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE WAVES
OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER LIFT IF
AT A MAXIMUM. 1 TO 2.5 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL...ESP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. DUE TO THE SOAKING RAIN THAT FELL OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING...ESP OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE BLACK HILLS
AREA...COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT IN AS THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND THE INCOMING HIGH...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS A
120-KT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE ECM IS HINTING AT A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS DRY. UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY...AND LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH IFR CIGS/VSBY. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER SOME AREAS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOME AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. ANOTHER 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     024>031-041-042-072>074.

WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7
HYDROLOGY...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 300008
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
608 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES DEEPENING LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO. WATER VAPOR SHOW INTENSE WAVE EJECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
COLORADO. LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. SHORT TERM MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING
OFF ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
NEAR KEIN-KPHP TUESDAY MORNING. STILL ON TRACK FOR HEAVY RAIN
OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALL-
RISE COUPLET ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW...HAVE TRENDED WINDS UP
FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE RAPID CITY AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENING AS AN UPPER
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO/WRN WYOMING MOVES EASTWARD. EASTERLY
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS IS KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG OVER MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INITIAL BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SPIN EASTWARD...BECOMING TIGHTLY WRAPPED OVER THE CWA BY 12Z
TUESDAY...THEN MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY EVE. FORCING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG WITH A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OF MOISTURE
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STRONG AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO
DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH TONIGHT. SUSTAINED 850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE WAVES
OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER LIFT IF
AT A MAXIMUM. 1 TO 2.5 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL...ESP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. DUE TO THE SOAKING RAIN THAT FELL OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING...ESP OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE BLACK HILLS
AREA...COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT IN AS THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND THE INCOMING HIGH...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS A
120-KT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE ECM IS HINTING AT A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS DRY. UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY...AND LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH IFR CIGS/VSBY. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER SOME AREAS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOME AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. ANOTHER 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     024>031-041-042-072>074.

WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7
HYDROLOGY...10







000
FXUS63 KABR 292352 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
651 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES MADE TO POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST
RADAR AND HI-RES MODELS. SLOWED DOWN EASTWARD PROGRESSION BY A FEW
HOURS AND INCREASED CURRENT POPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...WHICH IN TURN HAVE ALLOWED SFC TEMPS TO RISE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST HIGHS. RAINFALL REMAINS CONFINED TO WESTERN
SD WITH JUST A FEW VERY ISO LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF THE MISSOURI.
MODELS STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEEPENING THE SFC LOW
OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AND MOVING IT NORTH INTO
SOUTHWEST SD BY TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT...MOST OF THE RAINFALL
WILL BE OVER WESTERN SD. THE INTERESTING DETAILS LIE IN THE
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW IN REGARDS TO INSTABILITY AND CLOUD COVER.
THIS IS WHERE THE HI RES MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS
TO CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST SD BASED ON WHAT MODELS ARE SHOWING. ALTHOUGH...IT
WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. IF AREAS FURTHER NORTH SEE ANY
BREAKS IN CLOUDS THEN DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR. REGARDLESS...LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE IMPRESSIVE ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND
STORMS THAT MANAGE TO GET GOING OVER EASTERN SD COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A SMALL TORNADO THREAT. THIS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THOUGH WHERE
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY SETS UP...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE OVER
SOUTHEAST SD BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOUD COVER TRENDS. WINDS
WILL BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AND COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PLACES. FAVORED
AREA FOR THIS THOUGH LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WILL LEAVE
FOR OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO CONSIDER. SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING DRYING CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE MODELS SHOW A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS RIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL US TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACROSS OUR CWA WILL BRING A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT NEAR NORMAL
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE MODELS THEN SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN CANADA DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY ALONG WITH
BREEZY/WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER AND
MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CLEARING SKIES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
20S TO THE LOWER 30S...THERE COULD BE SOME FROST FORMATION.
OTHERWISE...THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
TRANSITIONING TO LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US
WITH LARGE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL PUT US IN A
DRY PATTERN WITH GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL
SLOWLY MOVE/DEVELOP EAST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA KICKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST US. INSERTED SOME SHOWERS/VICINITY THUNDER IN AT PIR AND
MBG THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND LEFT ABR AND ATY DRY FOR NOW.
SHOWERS WILL ROTATE UP INTO THESE AREAS ON TUESDAY MORNING BUT
TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE...MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK DOWN TO MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RH REMAINS HIGH AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN SD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 292352 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
651 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES MADE TO POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST
RADAR AND HI-RES MODELS. SLOWED DOWN EASTWARD PROGRESSION BY A FEW
HOURS AND INCREASED CURRENT POPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...WHICH IN TURN HAVE ALLOWED SFC TEMPS TO RISE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST HIGHS. RAINFALL REMAINS CONFINED TO WESTERN
SD WITH JUST A FEW VERY ISO LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF THE MISSOURI.
MODELS STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEEPENING THE SFC LOW
OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AND MOVING IT NORTH INTO
SOUTHWEST SD BY TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT...MOST OF THE RAINFALL
WILL BE OVER WESTERN SD. THE INTERESTING DETAILS LIE IN THE
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW IN REGARDS TO INSTABILITY AND CLOUD COVER.
THIS IS WHERE THE HI RES MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS
TO CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST SD BASED ON WHAT MODELS ARE SHOWING. ALTHOUGH...IT
WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. IF AREAS FURTHER NORTH SEE ANY
BREAKS IN CLOUDS THEN DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR. REGARDLESS...LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE IMPRESSIVE ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND
STORMS THAT MANAGE TO GET GOING OVER EASTERN SD COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A SMALL TORNADO THREAT. THIS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THOUGH WHERE
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY SETS UP...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE OVER
SOUTHEAST SD BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOUD COVER TRENDS. WINDS
WILL BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AND COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PLACES. FAVORED
AREA FOR THIS THOUGH LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WILL LEAVE
FOR OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO CONSIDER. SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING DRYING CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE MODELS SHOW A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS RIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL US TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACROSS OUR CWA WILL BRING A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT NEAR NORMAL
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE MODELS THEN SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN CANADA DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY ALONG WITH
BREEZY/WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER AND
MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CLEARING SKIES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
20S TO THE LOWER 30S...THERE COULD BE SOME FROST FORMATION.
OTHERWISE...THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
TRANSITIONING TO LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US
WITH LARGE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL PUT US IN A
DRY PATTERN WITH GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL
SLOWLY MOVE/DEVELOP EAST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA KICKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST US. INSERTED SOME SHOWERS/VICINITY THUNDER IN AT PIR AND
MBG THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND LEFT ABR AND ATY DRY FOR NOW.
SHOWERS WILL ROTATE UP INTO THESE AREAS ON TUESDAY MORNING BUT
TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE...MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK DOWN TO MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RH REMAINS HIGH AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN SD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 292352 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
651 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES MADE TO POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST
RADAR AND HI-RES MODELS. SLOWED DOWN EASTWARD PROGRESSION BY A FEW
HOURS AND INCREASED CURRENT POPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...WHICH IN TURN HAVE ALLOWED SFC TEMPS TO RISE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST HIGHS. RAINFALL REMAINS CONFINED TO WESTERN
SD WITH JUST A FEW VERY ISO LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF THE MISSOURI.
MODELS STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEEPENING THE SFC LOW
OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AND MOVING IT NORTH INTO
SOUTHWEST SD BY TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT...MOST OF THE RAINFALL
WILL BE OVER WESTERN SD. THE INTERESTING DETAILS LIE IN THE
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW IN REGARDS TO INSTABILITY AND CLOUD COVER.
THIS IS WHERE THE HI RES MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS
TO CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST SD BASED ON WHAT MODELS ARE SHOWING. ALTHOUGH...IT
WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. IF AREAS FURTHER NORTH SEE ANY
BREAKS IN CLOUDS THEN DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR. REGARDLESS...LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE IMPRESSIVE ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND
STORMS THAT MANAGE TO GET GOING OVER EASTERN SD COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A SMALL TORNADO THREAT. THIS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THOUGH WHERE
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY SETS UP...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE OVER
SOUTHEAST SD BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOUD COVER TRENDS. WINDS
WILL BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AND COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PLACES. FAVORED
AREA FOR THIS THOUGH LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WILL LEAVE
FOR OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO CONSIDER. SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING DRYING CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE MODELS SHOW A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS RIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL US TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACROSS OUR CWA WILL BRING A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT NEAR NORMAL
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE MODELS THEN SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN CANADA DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY ALONG WITH
BREEZY/WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER AND
MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CLEARING SKIES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
20S TO THE LOWER 30S...THERE COULD BE SOME FROST FORMATION.
OTHERWISE...THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
TRANSITIONING TO LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US
WITH LARGE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL PUT US IN A
DRY PATTERN WITH GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL
SLOWLY MOVE/DEVELOP EAST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA KICKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST US. INSERTED SOME SHOWERS/VICINITY THUNDER IN AT PIR AND
MBG THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND LEFT ABR AND ATY DRY FOR NOW.
SHOWERS WILL ROTATE UP INTO THESE AREAS ON TUESDAY MORNING BUT
TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE...MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK DOWN TO MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RH REMAINS HIGH AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN SD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 292352 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
651 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES MADE TO POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST
RADAR AND HI-RES MODELS. SLOWED DOWN EASTWARD PROGRESSION BY A FEW
HOURS AND INCREASED CURRENT POPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...WHICH IN TURN HAVE ALLOWED SFC TEMPS TO RISE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST HIGHS. RAINFALL REMAINS CONFINED TO WESTERN
SD WITH JUST A FEW VERY ISO LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF THE MISSOURI.
MODELS STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEEPENING THE SFC LOW
OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AND MOVING IT NORTH INTO
SOUTHWEST SD BY TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT...MOST OF THE RAINFALL
WILL BE OVER WESTERN SD. THE INTERESTING DETAILS LIE IN THE
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW IN REGARDS TO INSTABILITY AND CLOUD COVER.
THIS IS WHERE THE HI RES MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS
TO CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST SD BASED ON WHAT MODELS ARE SHOWING. ALTHOUGH...IT
WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. IF AREAS FURTHER NORTH SEE ANY
BREAKS IN CLOUDS THEN DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR. REGARDLESS...LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE IMPRESSIVE ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND
STORMS THAT MANAGE TO GET GOING OVER EASTERN SD COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A SMALL TORNADO THREAT. THIS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THOUGH WHERE
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY SETS UP...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE OVER
SOUTHEAST SD BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOUD COVER TRENDS. WINDS
WILL BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AND COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PLACES. FAVORED
AREA FOR THIS THOUGH LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WILL LEAVE
FOR OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO CONSIDER. SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING DRYING CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE MODELS SHOW A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS RIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL US TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACROSS OUR CWA WILL BRING A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT NEAR NORMAL
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE MODELS THEN SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN CANADA DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY ALONG WITH
BREEZY/WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER AND
MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CLEARING SKIES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
20S TO THE LOWER 30S...THERE COULD BE SOME FROST FORMATION.
OTHERWISE...THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
TRANSITIONING TO LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US
WITH LARGE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL PUT US IN A
DRY PATTERN WITH GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL
SLOWLY MOVE/DEVELOP EAST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA KICKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST US. INSERTED SOME SHOWERS/VICINITY THUNDER IN AT PIR AND
MBG THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND LEFT ABR AND ATY DRY FOR NOW.
SHOWERS WILL ROTATE UP INTO THESE AREAS ON TUESDAY MORNING BUT
TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE...MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK DOWN TO MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RH REMAINS HIGH AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN SD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KFSD 292330
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS STILL AROUND TO MANIFEST ITSELF IN
EVENTUAL WIDESPREAD REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP SOUTH ALL THE WAY
TO SUX/SLB WHERE THEY WERE AVOIDED LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...STRONG WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
RAIN/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF A FAIRLY SOLID BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND
FURTHER EAST IN THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASING INSTABILITY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS PER CONSISTENT
SPC OUTLOOKS. POPS FOR TUESDAY WILL BE KEPT PRETTY HIGH BECAUSE OF
THE EXPECTED SOLID NATURE OF THE INITIAL BAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE TOO GREAT UNLESS THE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON PRODUCES DECENT STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN IN THAT
CASE...THE LIKELY DECENT STORM MOTION SHOULD HELP HOLD THE MAX
POTENTIAL DOWN.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TAMELY TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WORKING TO KEEP LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE. CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL OF COURSE KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST DOWN
TUESDAY...THOUGH CLEARING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER MAY RESULT IN
BETTER WARMING THERE. MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL ON HIGHS WITH MAV
LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER.

WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PICK UP TO THE BREEZY OR WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY
MAINLY IN THE WEST CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING
UPPER WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 IN THE EARLY EVENING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST IOWA. THE LOW END SEVERE THREAT
WILL ALSO LARGELY COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
STALLS OUT. MEANWHILE...A SECOND DEEP SHORT WAVE EMERGES IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND GRADUALLY SLIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS...PERHAPS WITH
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALSO SETTLE INTO TO REGION.  WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
NEAR 70...BUT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...LIGHT RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
60S ON THURSDAY.

BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AND EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY OUT THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WINDY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL MAKE FOR A BRISK FALL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. WINDS TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS. THE GFS DROPS A
MID LEVEL WAVE ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...HOWEVER WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN HALF
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WARM FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STRATUS DISSOLVING BY MID-AFTN. SHORT TERM MODELS
DOING A POOR JOB HANDLING THE LOW-LVL MOISTURE...BUT IN GENERAL
ANTICIPATING REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT. THESE
CEILINGS WILL HOLD ON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A LINEAR BAND
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FEEL
THE THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN LOW...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

THIS RAIN WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
CEILINGS MAY TRY TO LIFT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
CLEARING MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT POISED TO
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KUNR 292111
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
311 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENING AS AN UPPER
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO/WRN WYOMING MOVES EASTWARD. EASTERLY
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS IS KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG OVER MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INITIAL BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SPIN EASTWARD...BECOMING TIGHTLY WRAPPED OVER THE CWA BY 12Z
TUESDAY...THEN MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY EVE. FORCING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG WITH A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OF MOISTURE
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STRONG AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO
DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH TONIGHT. SUSTAINED 850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE WAVES
OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER LIFT IF
AT A MAXIMUM. 1 TO 2.5 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL...ESP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. DUE TO THE SOAKING RAIN THAT FELL OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING...ESP OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE BLACK HILLS
AREA...COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT IN AS THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND THE INCOMING HIGH...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS A
120-KT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE ECM IS HINTING AT A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS DRY. UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO THE AREA. IFR VSBY IS EXPECTED WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER SOME AREAS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOME AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. ANOTHER 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     024>031-041-042-072>074.

WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
HYDROLOGY...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 292111
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
311 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENING AS AN UPPER
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO/WRN WYOMING MOVES EASTWARD. EASTERLY
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS IS KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG OVER MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INITIAL BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SPIN EASTWARD...BECOMING TIGHTLY WRAPPED OVER THE CWA BY 12Z
TUESDAY...THEN MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY EVE. FORCING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG WITH A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OF MOISTURE
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STRONG AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO
DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH TONIGHT. SUSTAINED 850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE WAVES
OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER LIFT IF
AT A MAXIMUM. 1 TO 2.5 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL...ESP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. DUE TO THE SOAKING RAIN THAT FELL OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING...ESP OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE BLACK HILLS
AREA...COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT IN AS THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND THE INCOMING HIGH...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS A
120-KT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE ECM IS HINTING AT A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS DRY. UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO THE AREA. IFR VSBY IS EXPECTED WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER SOME AREAS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOME AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. ANOTHER 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     024>031-041-042-072>074.

WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
HYDROLOGY...10







000
FXUS63 KABR 292054
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...WHICH IN TURN HAVE ALLOWED SFC TEMPS TO RISE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST HIGHS. RAINFALL REMAINS CONFINED TO WESTERN
SD WITH JUST A FEW VERY ISO LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF THE MISSOURI.
MODELS STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEEPENING THE SFC LOW
OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AND MOVING IT NORTH INTO
SOUTHWEST SD BY TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT...MOST OF THE RAINFALL
WILL BE OVER WESTERN SD. THE INTERESTING DETAILS LIE IN THE
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW IN REGARDS TO INSTABILITY AND CLOUD COVER.
THIS IS WHERE THE HI RES MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS
TO CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST SD BASED ON WHAT MODELS ARE SHOWING. ALTHOUGH...IT
WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. IF AREAS FURTHER NORTH SEE ANY
BREAKS IN CLOUDS THEN DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR. REGARDLESS...LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE IMPRESSIVE ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND
STORMS THAT MANAGE TO GET GOING OVER EASTERN SD COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A SMALL TORNADO THREAT. THIS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THOUGH WHERE
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY SETS UP...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE OVER
SOUTHEAST SD BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOUD COVER TRENDS. WINDS
WILL BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AND COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PLACES. FAVORED
AREA FOR THIS THOUGH LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WILL LEAVE
FOR OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO CONSIDER. SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING DRYING CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE MODELS SHOW A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS RIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL US TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACROSS OUR CWA WILL BRING A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT NEAR NORMAL
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE MODELS THEN SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN CANADA DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY ALONG WITH
BREEZY/WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER AND
MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CLEARING SKIES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
20S TO THE LOWER 30S...THERE COULD BE SOME FROST FORMATION.
OTHERWISE...THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
TRANSITIONING TO LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US
WITH LARGE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL PUT US IN A
DRY PATTERN WITH GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS WESTERN SD WILL SLOWLY
MOVE/DEVELOP EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA KICKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
US. INSERTED SOME SHOWERS/VICINITY THUNDER IN AT PIR AND MBG THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND LEFT ABR AND ATY DRY FOR NOW.
ALTHOUGH...SHOWERS MAY ROTATE UP INTO THESE AREAS ON TUESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL BACK DOWN TO MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
RH REMAINS HIGH AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE QUITE A BIT AT THE SURFACE AND
ABOVE AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST
SD BY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 292054
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...WHICH IN TURN HAVE ALLOWED SFC TEMPS TO RISE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST HIGHS. RAINFALL REMAINS CONFINED TO WESTERN
SD WITH JUST A FEW VERY ISO LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF THE MISSOURI.
MODELS STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEEPENING THE SFC LOW
OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AND MOVING IT NORTH INTO
SOUTHWEST SD BY TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT...MOST OF THE RAINFALL
WILL BE OVER WESTERN SD. THE INTERESTING DETAILS LIE IN THE
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW IN REGARDS TO INSTABILITY AND CLOUD COVER.
THIS IS WHERE THE HI RES MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS
TO CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST SD BASED ON WHAT MODELS ARE SHOWING. ALTHOUGH...IT
WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. IF AREAS FURTHER NORTH SEE ANY
BREAKS IN CLOUDS THEN DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR. REGARDLESS...LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE IMPRESSIVE ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND
STORMS THAT MANAGE TO GET GOING OVER EASTERN SD COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A SMALL TORNADO THREAT. THIS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THOUGH WHERE
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY SETS UP...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE OVER
SOUTHEAST SD BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOUD COVER TRENDS. WINDS
WILL BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AND COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PLACES. FAVORED
AREA FOR THIS THOUGH LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WILL LEAVE
FOR OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO CONSIDER. SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING DRYING CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE MODELS SHOW A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS RIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL US TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACROSS OUR CWA WILL BRING A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT NEAR NORMAL
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE MODELS THEN SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN CANADA DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY ALONG WITH
BREEZY/WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER AND
MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CLEARING SKIES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
20S TO THE LOWER 30S...THERE COULD BE SOME FROST FORMATION.
OTHERWISE...THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
TRANSITIONING TO LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US
WITH LARGE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL PUT US IN A
DRY PATTERN WITH GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS WESTERN SD WILL SLOWLY
MOVE/DEVELOP EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA KICKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
US. INSERTED SOME SHOWERS/VICINITY THUNDER IN AT PIR AND MBG THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND LEFT ABR AND ATY DRY FOR NOW.
ALTHOUGH...SHOWERS MAY ROTATE UP INTO THESE AREAS ON TUESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL BACK DOWN TO MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
RH REMAINS HIGH AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE QUITE A BIT AT THE SURFACE AND
ABOVE AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST
SD BY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 292027
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
327 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS STILL AROUND TO MANIFEST ITSELF IN
EVENTUAL WIDESPREAD REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP SOUTH ALL THE WAY
TO SUX/SLB WHERE THEY WERE AVOIDED LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...STRONG WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
RAIN/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF A FAIRLY SOLID BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND
FURTHER EAST IN THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASING INSTABILITY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS PER CONSISTENT
SPC OUTLOOKS. POPS FOR TUESDAY WILL BE KEPT PRETTY HIGH BECAUSE OF
THE EXPECTED SOLID NATURE OF THE INITIAL BAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE TOO GREAT UNLESS THE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON PRODUCES DECENT STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN IN THAT
CASE...THE LIKELY DECENT STORM MOTION SHOULD HELP HOLD THE MAX
POTENTIAL DOWN.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TAMELY TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WORKING TO KEEP LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE. CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL OF COURSE KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST DOWN
TUESDAY...THOUGH CLEARING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER MAY RESULT IN
BETTER WARMING THERE. MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL ON HIGHS WITH MAV
LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER.

WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PICK UP TO THE BREEZY OR WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY
MAINLY IN THE WEST CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING
UPPER WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 IN THE EARLY EVENING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST IOWA. THE LOW END SEVERE THREAT
WILL ALSO LARGELY COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
STALLS OUT. MEANWHILE...A SECOND DEEP SHORT WAVE EMERGES IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND GRADUALLY SLIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS...PERHAPS WITH
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALSO SETTLE INTO TO REGION.  WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
NEAR 70...BUT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...LIGHT RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
60S ON THURSDAY.

BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AND EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY OUT THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WINDY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL MAKE FOR A BRISK FALL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. WINDS TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS. THE GFS DROPS A
MID LEVEL WAVE ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...HOWEVER WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN HALF
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

NORTH AND WEST OF YKN/SLB LINE CEILINGS GENERALLY 1-3K FEET...WITH
A FEW AREAS OF CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN
FOG SOUTHWEST OF 9V9/PKS LINE. THROUGH 30/00Z A FEW AREAS WILL GO
TO VFR WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS 1-3K FEET...THEN CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AGAIN AFTER 30/00Z. SOUTH OF YKN/SLB LINE INCLUDING KSUX TAF SITE
VFR THROUGH 06Z...THEN CEILINGS 1-3K FEET DEVELOPING. AFTER 30/08Z
SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND AFFECT MOST OF THE
AREA BY 30/18Z...WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO 3-5SM.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 292027
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
327 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS STILL AROUND TO MANIFEST ITSELF IN
EVENTUAL WIDESPREAD REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP SOUTH ALL THE WAY
TO SUX/SLB WHERE THEY WERE AVOIDED LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...STRONG WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
RAIN/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF A FAIRLY SOLID BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND
FURTHER EAST IN THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASING INSTABILITY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS PER CONSISTENT
SPC OUTLOOKS. POPS FOR TUESDAY WILL BE KEPT PRETTY HIGH BECAUSE OF
THE EXPECTED SOLID NATURE OF THE INITIAL BAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE TOO GREAT UNLESS THE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON PRODUCES DECENT STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN IN THAT
CASE...THE LIKELY DECENT STORM MOTION SHOULD HELP HOLD THE MAX
POTENTIAL DOWN.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TAMELY TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WORKING TO KEEP LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE. CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL OF COURSE KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST DOWN
TUESDAY...THOUGH CLEARING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER MAY RESULT IN
BETTER WARMING THERE. MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL ON HIGHS WITH MAV
LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER.

WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PICK UP TO THE BREEZY OR WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY
MAINLY IN THE WEST CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING
UPPER WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 IN THE EARLY EVENING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST IOWA. THE LOW END SEVERE THREAT
WILL ALSO LARGELY COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
STALLS OUT. MEANWHILE...A SECOND DEEP SHORT WAVE EMERGES IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND GRADUALLY SLIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS...PERHAPS WITH
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALSO SETTLE INTO TO REGION.  WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
NEAR 70...BUT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...LIGHT RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
60S ON THURSDAY.

BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AND EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY OUT THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WINDY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL MAKE FOR A BRISK FALL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. WINDS TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS. THE GFS DROPS A
MID LEVEL WAVE ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...HOWEVER WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN HALF
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

NORTH AND WEST OF YKN/SLB LINE CEILINGS GENERALLY 1-3K FEET...WITH
A FEW AREAS OF CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN
FOG SOUTHWEST OF 9V9/PKS LINE. THROUGH 30/00Z A FEW AREAS WILL GO
TO VFR WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS 1-3K FEET...THEN CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AGAIN AFTER 30/00Z. SOUTH OF YKN/SLB LINE INCLUDING KSUX TAF SITE
VFR THROUGH 06Z...THEN CEILINGS 1-3K FEET DEVELOPING. AFTER 30/08Z
SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND AFFECT MOST OF THE
AREA BY 30/18Z...WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO 3-5SM.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KABR 291808 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
108 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. LOWERED HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ALL TOO MUCH.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THOUGH THAT EVEN WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND
UNFAVORABLE WARMING WINDS FROM THE EAST...925/850MB TEMPS STILL
WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SO STILL SHOULD SEE A
BIT OF A TEMPERED RISE TODAY EVEN WITH CLOUDS. PRECIPITATION TODAY
WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED TO WESTERN SD SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT
TO BETTER MATCH THIS.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AM THANKS TO
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 80KT JET STREAK. THIS FEATURE WILL
DEPART CWA BY MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE QPF ANTICIPATED.
OTHERWISE...DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT RESPONSIBLE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AM. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
SHOWERS/STORMS WEST RIVER TODAY AS THE UPPER TROF PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...ON NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...STRATUS
EXTENDS WELL INTO CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM AT
ALL THANKS TO LACK OF HEATING AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.

NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF LIFTS OUT OF NEBRASKA EARLY TUESDAY.
ANY SUN WILL RESULT IN MIXING STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...WITH THE NAM PEGGING MIXED DOWN WINDS BETWEEN 20-40KTS.
NAM ALSO SUGGEST A NARROW RIBBON OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE
WITHIN THE STRONG SPEED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WILL HEIGHTEN
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY SLOT FOLLOWS AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTH...WHICH WILL END PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPS. WARMER AIR WILL WORK BACK INTO AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING.





&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS WESTERN SD WILL SLOWLY
MOVE/DEVELOP EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA KICKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
US. INSERTED SOME SHOWERS/VICINITY THUNDER IN AT PIR AND MBG THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND LEFT ABR AND ATY DRY FOR NOW.
ALTHOUGH...SHOWERS MAY ROTATE UP INTO THESE AREAS ON TUESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL BACK DOWN TO MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
RH REMAINS HIGH AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE QUITE A BIT AT THE SURFACE AND
ABOVE AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST
SD BY MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KUNR 291742
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1142 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDTM ON SEP 29 2014

HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY...IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN THE FLOODING OF
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS A RESULT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST NV/NORTHWEST UT WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WRAPPING AROUND IT...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND ANOTHER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER CWA AT THE MOMENT WITH NEXT CLUSTER OVER SOUTHEAST
WY...ALL HEADING TO THE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW WILL SPIN NORTHEAST
WRAPPING UP QUITE TIGHTLY OVER THE CWA 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN RACING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN ND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING AHEAD OF IT
WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED WITH SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON
NOSE OF 110KT JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY STRONG
AS SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH
TONIGHT...STACKING UNDER LOW OVER CWA TUESDAY. SUSTAINED 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE
WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER UPSIDENCE
MAXIMIZED. 0.5-1.5 INCHES RAIN LIKELY TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR EAST WHEN DRY SLOW MAY DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY. LOCAL 1.5-2.5 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY WEATHER...TIME OF
YEAR...AND EXPECTED SOAKING NATURE OF RAINS...WILL FORGO ANY HYDRO
HEADLINES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND LOW...POSSIBLY
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALL-LIKE
WITH THE SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION...BUT NEAR NORMAL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. FINALLY...CAPE/SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SNEAKING INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO THE AREA. IFR VSBY IS EXPECTED WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER SOME AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOME AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING
OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     024>031-041-042-072>074.

WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE
HYDROLOGY...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 291742
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1142 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDTM ON SEP 29 2014

HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY...IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN THE FLOODING OF
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS A RESULT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST NV/NORTHWEST UT WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WRAPPING AROUND IT...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND ANOTHER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER CWA AT THE MOMENT WITH NEXT CLUSTER OVER SOUTHEAST
WY...ALL HEADING TO THE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW WILL SPIN NORTHEAST
WRAPPING UP QUITE TIGHTLY OVER THE CWA 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN RACING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN ND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING AHEAD OF IT
WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED WITH SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON
NOSE OF 110KT JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY STRONG
AS SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH
TONIGHT...STACKING UNDER LOW OVER CWA TUESDAY. SUSTAINED 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE
WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER UPSIDENCE
MAXIMIZED. 0.5-1.5 INCHES RAIN LIKELY TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR EAST WHEN DRY SLOW MAY DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY. LOCAL 1.5-2.5 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY WEATHER...TIME OF
YEAR...AND EXPECTED SOAKING NATURE OF RAINS...WILL FORGO ANY HYDRO
HEADLINES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND LOW...POSSIBLY
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALL-LIKE
WITH THE SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION...BUT NEAR NORMAL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. FINALLY...CAPE/SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SNEAKING INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO THE AREA. IFR VSBY IS EXPECTED WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER SOME AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOME AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING
OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     024>031-041-042-072>074.

WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE
HYDROLOGY...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 291742
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1142 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDTM ON SEP 29 2014

HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY...IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN THE FLOODING OF
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS A RESULT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST NV/NORTHWEST UT WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WRAPPING AROUND IT...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND ANOTHER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER CWA AT THE MOMENT WITH NEXT CLUSTER OVER SOUTHEAST
WY...ALL HEADING TO THE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW WILL SPIN NORTHEAST
WRAPPING UP QUITE TIGHTLY OVER THE CWA 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN RACING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN ND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING AHEAD OF IT
WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED WITH SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON
NOSE OF 110KT JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY STRONG
AS SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH
TONIGHT...STACKING UNDER LOW OVER CWA TUESDAY. SUSTAINED 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE
WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER UPSIDENCE
MAXIMIZED. 0.5-1.5 INCHES RAIN LIKELY TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR EAST WHEN DRY SLOW MAY DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY. LOCAL 1.5-2.5 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY WEATHER...TIME OF
YEAR...AND EXPECTED SOAKING NATURE OF RAINS...WILL FORGO ANY HYDRO
HEADLINES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND LOW...POSSIBLY
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALL-LIKE
WITH THE SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION...BUT NEAR NORMAL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. FINALLY...CAPE/SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SNEAKING INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO THE AREA. IFR VSBY IS EXPECTED WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER SOME AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOME AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING
OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     024>031-041-042-072>074.

WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE
HYDROLOGY...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 291742
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1142 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDTM ON SEP 29 2014

HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY...IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN THE FLOODING OF
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS A RESULT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST NV/NORTHWEST UT WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WRAPPING AROUND IT...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND ANOTHER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER CWA AT THE MOMENT WITH NEXT CLUSTER OVER SOUTHEAST
WY...ALL HEADING TO THE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW WILL SPIN NORTHEAST
WRAPPING UP QUITE TIGHTLY OVER THE CWA 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN RACING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN ND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING AHEAD OF IT
WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED WITH SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON
NOSE OF 110KT JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY STRONG
AS SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH
TONIGHT...STACKING UNDER LOW OVER CWA TUESDAY. SUSTAINED 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE
WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER UPSIDENCE
MAXIMIZED. 0.5-1.5 INCHES RAIN LIKELY TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR EAST WHEN DRY SLOW MAY DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY. LOCAL 1.5-2.5 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY WEATHER...TIME OF
YEAR...AND EXPECTED SOAKING NATURE OF RAINS...WILL FORGO ANY HYDRO
HEADLINES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND LOW...POSSIBLY
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALL-LIKE
WITH THE SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION...BUT NEAR NORMAL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. FINALLY...CAPE/SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SNEAKING INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO THE AREA. IFR VSBY IS EXPECTED WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER SOME AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOME AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING
OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     024>031-041-042-072>074.

WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE
HYDROLOGY...10






000
FXUS63 KFSD 291735
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1235 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING.  THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WORK SOUTH TOWARDS
THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND STALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.  FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATUS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.  WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...WILL BE A REAL STRUGGLE TO WARM TODAY AND UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
VALUES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  SIOUX CITY WAS A REAL TOUGH
CALL...BUT FOR NOW APPEARS AS THOUGH THE AIRPORT WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY...SO SIDED WITH VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
THERE.

STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION FOCUSES TO THE WEST.  COULD SEE SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WORK INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z. WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION REMAINING FAIRLY CONTAINED...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
MAINLY REMAIN WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THROUGH 12Z. ATMOSPHERE IS
WEAKLY UNSTABLE...BUT EXPECT ANY LIGHTNING/THUNDER TO BE VERY
LIMITED. WITH CLOUD COVER HANGING TOUGH AND WINDS INCREASING AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SHRUNK DIURNAL RANGE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY STILL LOOKS INTERESTING IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. STRONG UPPER LOW WITH ATTENDANT
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ROUGHLY FROM 18Z TO 03Z...WHERE IT EXITS
SOUTHWEST MN.

AT THIS TIME...AGREE WITH THE SPC SECOND DAY OUTLOOK IN GIVING
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE GENERALLY FROM I 29 AND WESTWARD. EAST
OF I 29...STABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE AND THE SHORT WAVE TIMING
APPEARS TO BE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. BUT ALONG AND
WEST OF I 29...DECENT CURVATURE EXISTS IN THE LOW LEVELS BELOW
800MB...SO IF SOME THUNDERSTORM CELLS CAN TIE INTO THE SURFACE OR
BOUNDARY LAYER...THEY COULD GO SEVERE. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT
THE BIGGEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS IN TERMS OF WIND. BOTH MIXED
LAYER AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ALOFT ARE RATHER THIN AND NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...SUGGESTING BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED. IN ADDITION...
ANTICIPATING A LOT OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF A DRY SLOT WHICH WILL
RESIDE IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES ON THE SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THE UPPER
LOW IN CENTRAL SD. BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE AVERAGING NEAR 30 KNOTS
FROM I 29 TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...INCREASING TO 45 TO 55 KNOTS
AT 500MB IN THE SAME AREA. FURTHERMORE...DECENT JET STREAK MOVES
NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OF 75 KNOTS IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...COUPLED WITH STRONG 1.5 PRESSURE ADVECTION AND
MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT...
SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP AS SOON AS EARLY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY
IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND THEN MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE I 29 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON. IF AN ISOLATED TORNADO
DEVELOPS...IT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHERE THE STRONGEST
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL RESIDE AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL CURVATURE...
AS THERE IS AN ABSENCE OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH IS WELL TO THE
WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THEN AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EAST OF I 29
WILL EXHIBIT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER AIDING STABILITY AS WELL AS THE
SHORT WAVE TIMING MOVING INTO THOSE AREAS WELL AFTER DARK.

TUESDAY WILL OF COURSE BE A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. MAY HAVE TO WATCH OUR
SOUTHWEST ZONES WHO MAY GET WARMER IF MORE CLEARING BREAKS OUT IN
THE DRY SLOT THAN ANTICIPATED. POPS ARE STILL LIKELY TUESDAY
EVENING ALONG THE SHORT WAVE IN MUCH OF NORTHWEST IA AND SOUTHWEST
MN...BEFORE QUIETING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD
IN THE 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WHICH MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL SD ON
TUESDAY IS A DISTANT MEMORY AS IT RAPIDLY MOVES INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. HOWEVER MORE UPPER TROUGHING DIGS IN THE ROCKIES KEEPING
AN UNSTABLE UPPER FLOW GOING...AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HANG
UP IN NORTHWEST IA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THEREFORE RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF A TYNDALL SD TO MARSHALL
MN LINE...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO NUDGING INTO OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES. STABILITY IS GREATLY INCREASED ON WEDNESDAY
WHEN COMPARED TO TUESDAY...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED
AFTERNOON ISOLATED STORMS IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWEST IA
NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...BUT COOLER IN OUR WEST WHERE THE UPPER 60S WILL RESIDE
NEAR CHAMBERLAIN WHEN COOLER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN THE
AFTERNOON.

IN THE EXTENDED...NOT A LOT GOING ON IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION.
BUT THE BIG STORY WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAYS UPPER
TROUGH IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A
COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO ONE MORE DAY
OF 65 TO 70 DEGREES IS DOABLE ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHTS CANADIAN COLD
FRONT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESIDE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WINDY
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
925-850MB TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...THE ALL BLEND GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES LOOKED WARM...SO BLENDED SOME CONSENSUS RAW VALUES
INTO THE MIX AS THE RAW VALUES ARE QUITE CHILLY BUT SEEM
REASONABLE. PREFER TO KEEP THE HIGHS ONLY 55 TO 60 FOR NOW...BUT
DEPENDING ON STRATUS POTENTIAL...FRIDAY COULD BE QUITE THE RAW AND
CHILLY DAY...COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A SLOW
WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

NORTH AND WEST OF YKN/SLB LINE CEILINGS GENERALLY 1-3K FEET...WITH
A FEW AREAS OF CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN
FOG SOUTHWEST OF 9V9/PKS LINE. THROUGH 30/00Z A FEW AREAS WILL GO
TO VFR WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS 1-3K FEET...THEN CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AGAIN AFTER 30/00Z. SOUTH OF YKN/SLB LINE INCLUDING KSUX TAF SITE
VFR THROUGH 06Z...THEN CEILINGS 1-3K FEET DEVELOPING. AFTER 30/08Z
SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND AFFECT MOST OF THE
AREA BY 30/18Z...WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO 3-5SM.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 291735
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1235 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING.  THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WORK SOUTH TOWARDS
THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND STALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.  FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATUS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.  WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...WILL BE A REAL STRUGGLE TO WARM TODAY AND UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
VALUES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  SIOUX CITY WAS A REAL TOUGH
CALL...BUT FOR NOW APPEARS AS THOUGH THE AIRPORT WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY...SO SIDED WITH VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
THERE.

STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION FOCUSES TO THE WEST.  COULD SEE SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WORK INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z. WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION REMAINING FAIRLY CONTAINED...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
MAINLY REMAIN WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THROUGH 12Z. ATMOSPHERE IS
WEAKLY UNSTABLE...BUT EXPECT ANY LIGHTNING/THUNDER TO BE VERY
LIMITED. WITH CLOUD COVER HANGING TOUGH AND WINDS INCREASING AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SHRUNK DIURNAL RANGE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY STILL LOOKS INTERESTING IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. STRONG UPPER LOW WITH ATTENDANT
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ROUGHLY FROM 18Z TO 03Z...WHERE IT EXITS
SOUTHWEST MN.

AT THIS TIME...AGREE WITH THE SPC SECOND DAY OUTLOOK IN GIVING
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE GENERALLY FROM I 29 AND WESTWARD. EAST
OF I 29...STABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE AND THE SHORT WAVE TIMING
APPEARS TO BE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. BUT ALONG AND
WEST OF I 29...DECENT CURVATURE EXISTS IN THE LOW LEVELS BELOW
800MB...SO IF SOME THUNDERSTORM CELLS CAN TIE INTO THE SURFACE OR
BOUNDARY LAYER...THEY COULD GO SEVERE. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT
THE BIGGEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS IN TERMS OF WIND. BOTH MIXED
LAYER AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ALOFT ARE RATHER THIN AND NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...SUGGESTING BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED. IN ADDITION...
ANTICIPATING A LOT OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF A DRY SLOT WHICH WILL
RESIDE IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES ON THE SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THE UPPER
LOW IN CENTRAL SD. BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE AVERAGING NEAR 30 KNOTS
FROM I 29 TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...INCREASING TO 45 TO 55 KNOTS
AT 500MB IN THE SAME AREA. FURTHERMORE...DECENT JET STREAK MOVES
NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OF 75 KNOTS IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...COUPLED WITH STRONG 1.5 PRESSURE ADVECTION AND
MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT...
SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP AS SOON AS EARLY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY
IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND THEN MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE I 29 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON. IF AN ISOLATED TORNADO
DEVELOPS...IT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHERE THE STRONGEST
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL RESIDE AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL CURVATURE...
AS THERE IS AN ABSENCE OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH IS WELL TO THE
WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THEN AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EAST OF I 29
WILL EXHIBIT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER AIDING STABILITY AS WELL AS THE
SHORT WAVE TIMING MOVING INTO THOSE AREAS WELL AFTER DARK.

TUESDAY WILL OF COURSE BE A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. MAY HAVE TO WATCH OUR
SOUTHWEST ZONES WHO MAY GET WARMER IF MORE CLEARING BREAKS OUT IN
THE DRY SLOT THAN ANTICIPATED. POPS ARE STILL LIKELY TUESDAY
EVENING ALONG THE SHORT WAVE IN MUCH OF NORTHWEST IA AND SOUTHWEST
MN...BEFORE QUIETING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD
IN THE 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WHICH MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL SD ON
TUESDAY IS A DISTANT MEMORY AS IT RAPIDLY MOVES INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. HOWEVER MORE UPPER TROUGHING DIGS IN THE ROCKIES KEEPING
AN UNSTABLE UPPER FLOW GOING...AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HANG
UP IN NORTHWEST IA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THEREFORE RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF A TYNDALL SD TO MARSHALL
MN LINE...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO NUDGING INTO OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES. STABILITY IS GREATLY INCREASED ON WEDNESDAY
WHEN COMPARED TO TUESDAY...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED
AFTERNOON ISOLATED STORMS IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWEST IA
NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...BUT COOLER IN OUR WEST WHERE THE UPPER 60S WILL RESIDE
NEAR CHAMBERLAIN WHEN COOLER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN THE
AFTERNOON.

IN THE EXTENDED...NOT A LOT GOING ON IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION.
BUT THE BIG STORY WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAYS UPPER
TROUGH IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A
COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO ONE MORE DAY
OF 65 TO 70 DEGREES IS DOABLE ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHTS CANADIAN COLD
FRONT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESIDE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WINDY
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
925-850MB TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...THE ALL BLEND GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES LOOKED WARM...SO BLENDED SOME CONSENSUS RAW VALUES
INTO THE MIX AS THE RAW VALUES ARE QUITE CHILLY BUT SEEM
REASONABLE. PREFER TO KEEP THE HIGHS ONLY 55 TO 60 FOR NOW...BUT
DEPENDING ON STRATUS POTENTIAL...FRIDAY COULD BE QUITE THE RAW AND
CHILLY DAY...COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A SLOW
WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

NORTH AND WEST OF YKN/SLB LINE CEILINGS GENERALLY 1-3K FEET...WITH
A FEW AREAS OF CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN
FOG SOUTHWEST OF 9V9/PKS LINE. THROUGH 30/00Z A FEW AREAS WILL GO
TO VFR WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS 1-3K FEET...THEN CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AGAIN AFTER 30/00Z. SOUTH OF YKN/SLB LINE INCLUDING KSUX TAF SITE
VFR THROUGH 06Z...THEN CEILINGS 1-3K FEET DEVELOPING. AFTER 30/08Z
SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND AFFECT MOST OF THE
AREA BY 30/18Z...WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO 3-5SM.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KUNR 291706
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1106 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

N-S BAND OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THIS
MORNING AND MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEPICTED IN SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER
DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. HAVE ALSO LOWERED THE FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS A RESULT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST NV/NORTHWEST UT WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WRAPPING AROUND IT...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND ANOTHER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER CWA AT THE MOMENT WITH NEXT CLUSTER OVER SOUTHEAST
WY...ALL HEADING TO THE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW WILL SPIN NORTHEAST
WRAPPING UP QUITE TIGHTLY OVER THE CWA 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN RACING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN ND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING AHEAD OF IT
WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED WITH SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON
NOSE OF 110KT JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY STRONG
AS SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH
TONIGHT...STACKING UNDER LOW OVER CWA TUESDAY. SUSTAINED 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE
WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER UPSIDENCE
MAXIMIZED. 0.5-1.5 INCHES RAIN LIKELY TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR EAST WHEN DRY SLOW MAY DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY. LOCAL 1.5-2.5 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY WEATHER...TIME OF
YEAR...AND EXPECTED SOAKING NATURE OF RAINS...WILL FORGO ANY HYDRO
HEADLINES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND LOW...POSSIBLY
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALL-LIKE
WITH THE SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION...BUT NEAR NORMAL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. FINALLY...CAPE/SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SNEAKING INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO THE AREA. IFR VSBY IS EXPECTED WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE








000
FXUS63 KUNR 291706
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1106 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

N-S BAND OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THIS
MORNING AND MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEPICTED IN SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER
DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. HAVE ALSO LOWERED THE FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS A RESULT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST NV/NORTHWEST UT WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WRAPPING AROUND IT...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND ANOTHER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER CWA AT THE MOMENT WITH NEXT CLUSTER OVER SOUTHEAST
WY...ALL HEADING TO THE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW WILL SPIN NORTHEAST
WRAPPING UP QUITE TIGHTLY OVER THE CWA 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN RACING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN ND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING AHEAD OF IT
WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED WITH SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON
NOSE OF 110KT JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY STRONG
AS SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH
TONIGHT...STACKING UNDER LOW OVER CWA TUESDAY. SUSTAINED 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE
WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER UPSIDENCE
MAXIMIZED. 0.5-1.5 INCHES RAIN LIKELY TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR EAST WHEN DRY SLOW MAY DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY. LOCAL 1.5-2.5 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY WEATHER...TIME OF
YEAR...AND EXPECTED SOAKING NATURE OF RAINS...WILL FORGO ANY HYDRO
HEADLINES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND LOW...POSSIBLY
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALL-LIKE
WITH THE SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION...BUT NEAR NORMAL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. FINALLY...CAPE/SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SNEAKING INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO THE AREA. IFR VSBY IS EXPECTED WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE








000
FXUS63 KUNR 291706
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1106 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

N-S BAND OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THIS
MORNING AND MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEPICTED IN SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER
DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. HAVE ALSO LOWERED THE FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS A RESULT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST NV/NORTHWEST UT WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WRAPPING AROUND IT...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND ANOTHER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER CWA AT THE MOMENT WITH NEXT CLUSTER OVER SOUTHEAST
WY...ALL HEADING TO THE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW WILL SPIN NORTHEAST
WRAPPING UP QUITE TIGHTLY OVER THE CWA 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN RACING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN ND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING AHEAD OF IT
WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED WITH SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON
NOSE OF 110KT JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY STRONG
AS SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH
TONIGHT...STACKING UNDER LOW OVER CWA TUESDAY. SUSTAINED 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE
WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER UPSIDENCE
MAXIMIZED. 0.5-1.5 INCHES RAIN LIKELY TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR EAST WHEN DRY SLOW MAY DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY. LOCAL 1.5-2.5 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY WEATHER...TIME OF
YEAR...AND EXPECTED SOAKING NATURE OF RAINS...WILL FORGO ANY HYDRO
HEADLINES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND LOW...POSSIBLY
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALL-LIKE
WITH THE SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION...BUT NEAR NORMAL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. FINALLY...CAPE/SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SNEAKING INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO THE AREA. IFR VSBY IS EXPECTED WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE








000
FXUS63 KUNR 291706
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1106 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

N-S BAND OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THIS
MORNING AND MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEPICTED IN SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER
DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. HAVE ALSO LOWERED THE FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS A RESULT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST NV/NORTHWEST UT WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WRAPPING AROUND IT...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND ANOTHER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER CWA AT THE MOMENT WITH NEXT CLUSTER OVER SOUTHEAST
WY...ALL HEADING TO THE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW WILL SPIN NORTHEAST
WRAPPING UP QUITE TIGHTLY OVER THE CWA 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN RACING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN ND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING AHEAD OF IT
WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED WITH SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON
NOSE OF 110KT JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY STRONG
AS SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH
TONIGHT...STACKING UNDER LOW OVER CWA TUESDAY. SUSTAINED 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE
WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER UPSIDENCE
MAXIMIZED. 0.5-1.5 INCHES RAIN LIKELY TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR EAST WHEN DRY SLOW MAY DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY. LOCAL 1.5-2.5 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY WEATHER...TIME OF
YEAR...AND EXPECTED SOAKING NATURE OF RAINS...WILL FORGO ANY HYDRO
HEADLINES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND LOW...POSSIBLY
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALL-LIKE
WITH THE SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION...BUT NEAR NORMAL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. FINALLY...CAPE/SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SNEAKING INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO THE AREA. IFR VSBY IS EXPECTED WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE








000
FXUS63 KABR 291536 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1036 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY

JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. LOWERED HIGHS
A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ALL TOO MUCH.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THOUGH THAT EVEN WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND
UNFAVORABLE WARMING WINDS FROM THE EAST...925/850MB TEMPS STILL
WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SO STILL SHOULD SEE A
BIT OF A TEMPERED RISE TODAY EVEN WITH CLOUDS. PRECIPITATION TODAY
WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED TO WESTERN SD SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT
TO BETTER MATCH THIS. CONTINUE TO SEE SOME FOG ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST FRINGE OF THE CWA. MURDO AND BELVIDERE WEB CAMS SHOWING
FOG ALONG I-90. ALREADY ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE FOG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AM THANKS TO
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 80KT JET STREAK. THIS FEATURE WILL
DEPART CWA BY MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE QPF ANTICIPATED.
OTHERWISE...DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT RESPONSIBLE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AM. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
SHOWERS/STORMS WEST RIVER TODAY AS THE UPPER TROF PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...ON NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...STRATUS
EXTENDS WELL INTO CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM AT
ALL THANKS TO LACK OF HEATING AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.

NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF LIFTS OUT OF NEBRASKA EARLY TUESDAY.
ANY SUN WILL RESULT IN MIXING STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...WITH THE NAM PEGGING MIXED DOWN WINDS BETWEEN 20-40KTS.
NAM ALSO SUGGEST A NARROW RIBBON OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE
WITHIN THE STRONG SPEED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WILL HEIGHTEN
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY SLOT FOLLOWS AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTH...WHICH WILL END PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPS. WARMER AIR WILL WORK BACK INTO AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND LIFT INTO
THE MAINLY MVFR RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE MOSTLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE NR KPIR AFT
00Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 291536 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1036 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY

JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. LOWERED HIGHS
A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ALL TOO MUCH.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THOUGH THAT EVEN WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND
UNFAVORABLE WARMING WINDS FROM THE EAST...925/850MB TEMPS STILL
WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SO STILL SHOULD SEE A
BIT OF A TEMPERED RISE TODAY EVEN WITH CLOUDS. PRECIPITATION TODAY
WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED TO WESTERN SD SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT
TO BETTER MATCH THIS. CONTINUE TO SEE SOME FOG ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST FRINGE OF THE CWA. MURDO AND BELVIDERE WEB CAMS SHOWING
FOG ALONG I-90. ALREADY ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE FOG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AM THANKS TO
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 80KT JET STREAK. THIS FEATURE WILL
DEPART CWA BY MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE QPF ANTICIPATED.
OTHERWISE...DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT RESPONSIBLE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AM. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
SHOWERS/STORMS WEST RIVER TODAY AS THE UPPER TROF PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...ON NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...STRATUS
EXTENDS WELL INTO CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM AT
ALL THANKS TO LACK OF HEATING AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.

NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF LIFTS OUT OF NEBRASKA EARLY TUESDAY.
ANY SUN WILL RESULT IN MIXING STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...WITH THE NAM PEGGING MIXED DOWN WINDS BETWEEN 20-40KTS.
NAM ALSO SUGGEST A NARROW RIBBON OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE
WITHIN THE STRONG SPEED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WILL HEIGHTEN
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY SLOT FOLLOWS AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTH...WHICH WILL END PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPS. WARMER AIR WILL WORK BACK INTO AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND LIFT INTO
THE MAINLY MVFR RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE MOSTLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE NR KPIR AFT
00Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KUNR 291533
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
933 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

N-S BAND OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THIS
MORNING AND MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEPICTED IN SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER
DEPICT THIS SCENERIO. HAVE ALSO LOWERED THE FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS A RESULT. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST NV/NORTHWEST UT WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WRAPPING AROUND IT...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND ANOTHER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER CWA AT THE MOMENT WITH NEXT CLUSTER OVER SOUTHEAST
WY...ALL HEADING TO THE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW WILL SPIN NORTHEAST
WRAPPING UP QUITE TIGHTLY OVER THE CWA 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN RACING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN ND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING AHEAD OF IT
WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED WITH SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON
NOSE OF 110KT JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY STRONG
AS SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH
TONIGHT...STACKING UNDER LOW OVER CWA TUESDAY. SUSTAINED 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE
WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER UPSIDENCE
MAXIMIZED. 0.5-1.5 INCHES RAIN LIKELY TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR EAST WHEN DRY SLOW MAY DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY. LOCAL 1.5-2.5 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY WEATHER...TIME OF
YEAR...AND EXPECTED SOAKING NATURE OF RAINS...WILL FORGO ANY HYDRO
HEADLINES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND LOW...POSSIBLY
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALL-LIKE
WITH THE SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION...BUT NEAR NORMAL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. FINALLY...CAPE/SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SNEAKING INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO THE AREA. MVFR VSBY
IS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KUNR 291533
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
933 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

N-S BAND OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THIS
MORNING AND MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEPICTED IN SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER
DEPICT THIS SCENERIO. HAVE ALSO LOWERED THE FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS A RESULT. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST NV/NORTHWEST UT WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WRAPPING AROUND IT...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND ANOTHER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER CWA AT THE MOMENT WITH NEXT CLUSTER OVER SOUTHEAST
WY...ALL HEADING TO THE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW WILL SPIN NORTHEAST
WRAPPING UP QUITE TIGHTLY OVER THE CWA 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN RACING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN ND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING AHEAD OF IT
WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED WITH SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON
NOSE OF 110KT JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY STRONG
AS SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH
TONIGHT...STACKING UNDER LOW OVER CWA TUESDAY. SUSTAINED 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE
WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER UPSIDENCE
MAXIMIZED. 0.5-1.5 INCHES RAIN LIKELY TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR EAST WHEN DRY SLOW MAY DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY. LOCAL 1.5-2.5 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY WEATHER...TIME OF
YEAR...AND EXPECTED SOAKING NATURE OF RAINS...WILL FORGO ANY HYDRO
HEADLINES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND LOW...POSSIBLY
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALL-LIKE
WITH THE SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION...BUT NEAR NORMAL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. FINALLY...CAPE/SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SNEAKING INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO THE AREA. MVFR VSBY
IS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







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