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000
FXUS63 KABR 220524 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LLM...FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE THE TEMP/DEW POINTS SPREAD WILL BE THE CLOSEST. HOWEVER THE
OVERALL AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY SO WILL NOT MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LLM INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING LLM...THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR TO OVER COME
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THUS HAVE DELAYED POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
MODELS DO SHOW WEAK ENERGY LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN CWA EARLY
IN THE DAY. OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS APPEAR TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE
HOWEVER...SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN TAKES HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK ENERGY GETTING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
AND LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS STATES...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE SEEMS TO
BE LACKING AT THIS POINT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...WHEN MODELS SUGGEST A WEST COAST TROUGH
CLOSES OFF AND BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS
YET TO BE DETERMINED HOWEVER...AND POPS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST. DUE
TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES JUST KEPT WITH THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES SHOW AN ABOVE NORMAL TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH VALID
FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY...ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR ALL LOCATIONS
BY 15Z MONDAY. LOOK FOR DEVELOPING SCT-BKN130 CLOUDS FOR THE
KPIR/KMBG AND KABR TERMINALS AFT 00Z TUESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 220524 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LLM...FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE THE TEMP/DEW POINTS SPREAD WILL BE THE CLOSEST. HOWEVER THE
OVERALL AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY SO WILL NOT MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LLM INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING LLM...THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR TO OVER COME
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THUS HAVE DELAYED POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
MODELS DO SHOW WEAK ENERGY LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN CWA EARLY
IN THE DAY. OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS APPEAR TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE
HOWEVER...SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN TAKES HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK ENERGY GETTING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
AND LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS STATES...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE SEEMS TO
BE LACKING AT THIS POINT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...WHEN MODELS SUGGEST A WEST COAST TROUGH
CLOSES OFF AND BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS
YET TO BE DETERMINED HOWEVER...AND POPS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST. DUE
TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES JUST KEPT WITH THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES SHOW AN ABOVE NORMAL TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH VALID
FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY...ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR ALL LOCATIONS
BY 15Z MONDAY. LOOK FOR DEVELOPING SCT-BKN130 CLOUDS FOR THE
KPIR/KMBG AND KABR TERMINALS AFT 00Z TUESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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000
FXUS63 KUNR 220441
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1041 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SLOWLY MOVING EAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NV
MOVING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. COULD BE A FEW BREEZY SPOTS OVER THE
FAVORED NORTHEAST WY/HILLS LOCATIONS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS/WARM AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WY WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT FROM MT INTO WESTERN NE. LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
EVENTUALLY CREATE SOME CAPE OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
SPOTS AHEAD OF TROUGH LIKELY GIVEN TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY THE PRECIPITATION/MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY
GIVEN NOTICEABLY WARMER 850-700MB THERMAL PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM AND GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND RETROGRADING
BACK OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK OVER NEB/KS. WILL LEAVE OUT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS IS PROGGED TO REACH
THE HIGH PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1039 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLD TO SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN WY AND SWRN SD
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AFTN/EVE. LCL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HEAVIER PRECIP. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...10






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000
FXUS63 KFSD 220429
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1129 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

RECEDING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A NIGHT OF CLEAR SKIES WITH
SUBSIDENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
SCATTERED CLOUDS EAST WILL DISSIPATE VERY EARLY. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT TO CALM INCLUDING OVER THE DECOUPLED WEST AS WEAK SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO GET STARTED. DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...DO NOT SEE FOG WORTH MENTIONING ON THIS DAY
BEFORE THE EQUINOX. DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT AND VERY SHALLOW FOG TO
ISOLATED LOW AREAS INCLUDING A FEW SPOTS OVER RELATIVELY WARM
LAKES/PONDS/RIVERS. GENERAL VISIBILITY SHOULD NOT SUFFER.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DECENTLY TO THE 40 TO 45 RANGE.

MONDAY WILL START CLEAR ...THEN HIGH AND EVENTUALLY SOME MIDDLE
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE AREA
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...AS THIS MORNINGS CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW
APPROACHES SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. SUPPORT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALL FAR TOO WEAK TO THINK ABOUT ANY SHOWERS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. SUNSHINE WILL RULE EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SLOWLY BUT STEADILY AT
THE SURFACE BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 MPH IN SOUTHWEST MN AND
NORTHWEST IA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A TAD OF WARMING FROM
TODAY WITH LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE PRIMARY STORY IN THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM FORECAST IS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
TUESDAY...AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY MIDWEEK.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA WILL SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST...ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD FORM OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY...SO FEEL THE CHANCES OF THUNDER ARE RELATIVELY LOW.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SCATTERED ON TUESDAY...AND IT WILL PROVE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TEMPERATURES.

RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MID-LVL DRY
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER
THROUGH THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...GETTING CAUGHT
UNDER THE LARGER SYNOPTIC RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP BY MID-WEEK.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED AND IN THE END WE SHOULD JUST
SEE A BIT MORE DIURNAL CLOUD COVER THAN USUAL.  THE BIGGEST STORY
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW-LVL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KABR 220232
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
932 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
INHERITED FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ON TAP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEEPENING 500HPA SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL PUSH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE FAR SW CWA BY 12Z MONDAY...BUT SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON CURRENT OVERNIGHT FCST. EXCEPT FOR HOURLY
TWEAKS TO TEMP/DWPTS...INHERITED GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO UPDATE TO
FORECAST PACKAGE NEEDED.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LLM...FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE THE TEMP/DEW POINTS SPREAD WILL BE THE CLOSEST. HOWEVER THE
OVERALL AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY SO WILL NOT MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LLM INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING LLM...THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR TO OVER COME
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THUS HAVE DELAYED POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
MODELS DO SHOW WEAK ENERGY LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN CWA EARLY
IN THE DAY. OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS APPEAR TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE
HOWEVER...SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN TAKES HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK ENERGY GETTING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
AND LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS STATES...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE SEEMS TO
BE LACKING AT THIS POINT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...WHEN MODELS SUGGEST A WEST COAST TROUGH
CLOSES OFF AND BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS
YET TO BE DETERMINED HOWEVER...AND POPS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST. DUE
TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES JUST KEPT WITH THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES SHOW AN ABOVE NORMAL TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION...VFR CONDS WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. LOOK FOR WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 15Z MONDAY FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 220232
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
932 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
INHERITED FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ON TAP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEEPENING 500HPA SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL PUSH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE FAR SW CWA BY 12Z MONDAY...BUT SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON CURRENT OVERNIGHT FCST. EXCEPT FOR HOURLY
TWEAKS TO TEMP/DWPTS...INHERITED GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO UPDATE TO
FORECAST PACKAGE NEEDED.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LLM...FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE THE TEMP/DEW POINTS SPREAD WILL BE THE CLOSEST. HOWEVER THE
OVERALL AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY SO WILL NOT MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LLM INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING LLM...THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR TO OVER COME
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THUS HAVE DELAYED POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
MODELS DO SHOW WEAK ENERGY LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN CWA EARLY
IN THE DAY. OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS APPEAR TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE
HOWEVER...SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN TAKES HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK ENERGY GETTING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
AND LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS STATES...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE SEEMS TO
BE LACKING AT THIS POINT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...WHEN MODELS SUGGEST A WEST COAST TROUGH
CLOSES OFF AND BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS
YET TO BE DETERMINED HOWEVER...AND POPS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST. DUE
TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES JUST KEPT WITH THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES SHOW AN ABOVE NORMAL TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION...VFR CONDS WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. LOOK FOR WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 15Z MONDAY FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 220004
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
704 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LLM...FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE THE TEMP/DEW POINTS SPREAD WILL BE THE CLOSEST. HOWEVER THE
OVERALL AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY SO WILL NOT MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LLM INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING LLM...THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR TO OVER COME
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THUS HAVE DELAYED POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
MODELS DO SHOW WEAK ENERGY LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN CWA EARLY
IN THE DAY. OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS APPEAR TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE
HOWEVER...SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN TAKES HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK ENERGY GETTING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
AND LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS STATES...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE SEEMS TO
BE LACKING AT THIS POINT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...WHEN MODELS SUGGEST A WEST COAST TROUGH
CLOSES OFF AND BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS
YET TO BE DETERMINED HOWEVER...AND POPS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST. DUE
TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES JUST KEPT WITH THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES SHOW AN ABOVE NORMAL TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION...VFR CONDS WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. LOOK FOR WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 15Z MONDAY FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 220004
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
704 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LLM...FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE THE TEMP/DEW POINTS SPREAD WILL BE THE CLOSEST. HOWEVER THE
OVERALL AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY SO WILL NOT MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LLM INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING LLM...THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR TO OVER COME
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THUS HAVE DELAYED POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
MODELS DO SHOW WEAK ENERGY LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN CWA EARLY
IN THE DAY. OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS APPEAR TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE
HOWEVER...SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN TAKES HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK ENERGY GETTING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
AND LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS STATES...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE SEEMS TO
BE LACKING AT THIS POINT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...WHEN MODELS SUGGEST A WEST COAST TROUGH
CLOSES OFF AND BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS
YET TO BE DETERMINED HOWEVER...AND POPS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST. DUE
TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES JUST KEPT WITH THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES SHOW AN ABOVE NORMAL TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION...VFR CONDS WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. LOOK FOR WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 15Z MONDAY FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 220004
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
704 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LLM...FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE THE TEMP/DEW POINTS SPREAD WILL BE THE CLOSEST. HOWEVER THE
OVERALL AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY SO WILL NOT MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LLM INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING LLM...THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR TO OVER COME
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THUS HAVE DELAYED POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
MODELS DO SHOW WEAK ENERGY LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN CWA EARLY
IN THE DAY. OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS APPEAR TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE
HOWEVER...SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN TAKES HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK ENERGY GETTING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
AND LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS STATES...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE SEEMS TO
BE LACKING AT THIS POINT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...WHEN MODELS SUGGEST A WEST COAST TROUGH
CLOSES OFF AND BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS
YET TO BE DETERMINED HOWEVER...AND POPS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST. DUE
TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES JUST KEPT WITH THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES SHOW AN ABOVE NORMAL TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION...VFR CONDS WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. LOOK FOR WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 15Z MONDAY FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 220004
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
704 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LLM...FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE THE TEMP/DEW POINTS SPREAD WILL BE THE CLOSEST. HOWEVER THE
OVERALL AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY SO WILL NOT MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LLM INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING LLM...THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR TO OVER COME
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THUS HAVE DELAYED POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
MODELS DO SHOW WEAK ENERGY LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN CWA EARLY
IN THE DAY. OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS APPEAR TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE
HOWEVER...SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN TAKES HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK ENERGY GETTING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
AND LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS STATES...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE SEEMS TO
BE LACKING AT THIS POINT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...WHEN MODELS SUGGEST A WEST COAST TROUGH
CLOSES OFF AND BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS
YET TO BE DETERMINED HOWEVER...AND POPS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST. DUE
TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES JUST KEPT WITH THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES SHOW AN ABOVE NORMAL TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION...VFR CONDS WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. LOOK FOR WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 15Z MONDAY FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 212333
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
633 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

RECEDING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A NIGHT OF CLEAR SKIES WITH
SUBSIDENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
SCATTERED CLOUDS EAST WILL DISSIPATE VERY EARLY. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT TO CALM INCLUDING OVER THE DECOUPLED WEST AS WEAK SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO GET STARTED. DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...DO NOT SEE FOG WORTH MENTIONING ON THIS DAY
BEFORE THE EQUINOX. DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT AND VERY SHALLOW FOG TO
ISOLATED LOW AREAS INCLUDING A FEW SPOTS OVER RELATIVELY WARM
LAKES/PONDS/RIVERS. GENERAL VISIBILITY SHOULD NOT SUFFER.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DECENTLY TO THE 40 TO 45 RANGE.

MONDAY WILL START CLEAR ...THEN HIGH AND EVENTUALLY SOME MIDDLE
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE AREA
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...AS THIS MORNINGS CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW
APPROACHES SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. SUPPORT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALL FAR TOO WEAK TO THINK ABOUT ANY SHOWERS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. SUNSHINE WILL RULE EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SLOWLY BUT STEADILY AT
THE SURFACE BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 MPH IN SOUTHWEST MN AND
NORTHWEST IA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A TAD OF WARMING FROM
TODAY WITH LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE PRIMARY STORY IN THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM FORECAST IS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
TUESDAY...AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY MIDWEEK.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA WILL SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST...ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD FORM OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY...SO FEEL THE CHANCES OF THUNDER ARE RELATIVELY LOW.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SCATTERED ON TUESDAY...AND IT WILL PROVE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TEMPERATURES.

RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MID-LVL DRY
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER
THROUGH THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...GETTING CAUGHT
UNDER THE LARGER SYNOPTIC RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP BY MID-WEEK.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED AND IN THE END WE SHOULD JUST
SEE A BIT MORE DIURNAL CLOUD COVER THAN USUAL.  THE BIGGEST STORY
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW-LVL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONLY THING TO
WATCH FOR IS ANY REDUCED VISIBILITIES NEAR SUNRISE MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IA INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS
POSSIBILITY WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE KSUX TAF AS ANY FOG WILL
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE VERY PATCHY AND SHALLOW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 212333
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
633 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

RECEDING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A NIGHT OF CLEAR SKIES WITH
SUBSIDENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
SCATTERED CLOUDS EAST WILL DISSIPATE VERY EARLY. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT TO CALM INCLUDING OVER THE DECOUPLED WEST AS WEAK SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO GET STARTED. DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...DO NOT SEE FOG WORTH MENTIONING ON THIS DAY
BEFORE THE EQUINOX. DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT AND VERY SHALLOW FOG TO
ISOLATED LOW AREAS INCLUDING A FEW SPOTS OVER RELATIVELY WARM
LAKES/PONDS/RIVERS. GENERAL VISIBILITY SHOULD NOT SUFFER.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DECENTLY TO THE 40 TO 45 RANGE.

MONDAY WILL START CLEAR ...THEN HIGH AND EVENTUALLY SOME MIDDLE
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE AREA
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...AS THIS MORNINGS CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW
APPROACHES SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. SUPPORT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALL FAR TOO WEAK TO THINK ABOUT ANY SHOWERS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. SUNSHINE WILL RULE EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SLOWLY BUT STEADILY AT
THE SURFACE BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 MPH IN SOUTHWEST MN AND
NORTHWEST IA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A TAD OF WARMING FROM
TODAY WITH LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE PRIMARY STORY IN THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM FORECAST IS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
TUESDAY...AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY MIDWEEK.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA WILL SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST...ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD FORM OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY...SO FEEL THE CHANCES OF THUNDER ARE RELATIVELY LOW.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SCATTERED ON TUESDAY...AND IT WILL PROVE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TEMPERATURES.

RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MID-LVL DRY
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER
THROUGH THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...GETTING CAUGHT
UNDER THE LARGER SYNOPTIC RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP BY MID-WEEK.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED AND IN THE END WE SHOULD JUST
SEE A BIT MORE DIURNAL CLOUD COVER THAN USUAL.  THE BIGGEST STORY
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW-LVL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONLY THING TO
WATCH FOR IS ANY REDUCED VISIBILITIES NEAR SUNRISE MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IA INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS
POSSIBILITY WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE KSUX TAF AS ANY FOG WILL
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE VERY PATCHY AND SHALLOW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KUNR 212314
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
514 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SLOWLY MOVING EAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NV
MOVING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. COULD BE A FEW BREEZY SPOTS OVER THE
FAVORED NORTHEAST WY/HILLS LOCATIONS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS/WARM AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WY WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT FROM MT INTO WESTERN NE. LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
EVENTUALLY CREATE SOME CAPE OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
SPOTS AHEAD OF TROUGH LIKELY GIVEN TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY THE PRECIPITATION/MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY
GIVEN NOTICEABLY WARMER 850-700MB THERMAL PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM AND GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND RETROGRADING
BACK OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK OVER NEB/KS. WILL LEAVE OUT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS IS PROGGED TO REACH
THE HIGH PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLD TO SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN WY AND SWRN SD
MONDAY MORNING...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AFTN/EVE. LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 212314
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
514 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SLOWLY MOVING EAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NV
MOVING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. COULD BE A FEW BREEZY SPOTS OVER THE
FAVORED NORTHEAST WY/HILLS LOCATIONS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS/WARM AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WY WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT FROM MT INTO WESTERN NE. LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
EVENTUALLY CREATE SOME CAPE OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
SPOTS AHEAD OF TROUGH LIKELY GIVEN TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY THE PRECIPITATION/MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY
GIVEN NOTICEABLY WARMER 850-700MB THERMAL PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM AND GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND RETROGRADING
BACK OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK OVER NEB/KS. WILL LEAVE OUT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS IS PROGGED TO REACH
THE HIGH PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLD TO SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN WY AND SWRN SD
MONDAY MORNING...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AFTN/EVE. LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KABR 212016
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LLM...FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE THE TEMP/DEW POINTS SPREAD WILL BE THE CLOSEST. HOWEVER THE
OVERALL AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY SO WILL NOT MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LLM INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING LLM...THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR TO OVER COME
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THUS HAVE DELAYED POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
MODELS DO SHOW WEAK ENERGY LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN CWA EARLY
IN THE DAY. OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS APPEAR TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE
HOWEVER...SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN TAKES HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK ENERGY GETTING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
AND LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS STATES...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE SEEMS TO
BE LACKING AT THIS POINT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...WHEN MODELS SUGGEST A WEST COAST TROUGH
CLOSES OFF AND BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS
YET TO BE DETERMINED HOWEVER...AND POPS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST. DUE
TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES JUST KEPT WITH THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES SHOW AN ABOVE NORMAL TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WINDS WILL THEN RETURN FROM THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING.
NO CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 212016
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LLM...FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE THE TEMP/DEW POINTS SPREAD WILL BE THE CLOSEST. HOWEVER THE
OVERALL AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY SO WILL NOT MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LLM INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING LLM...THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR TO OVER COME
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THUS HAVE DELAYED POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
MODELS DO SHOW WEAK ENERGY LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN CWA EARLY
IN THE DAY. OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS APPEAR TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE
HOWEVER...SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN TAKES HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK ENERGY GETTING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
AND LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS STATES...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE SEEMS TO
BE LACKING AT THIS POINT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...WHEN MODELS SUGGEST A WEST COAST TROUGH
CLOSES OFF AND BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS
YET TO BE DETERMINED HOWEVER...AND POPS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST. DUE
TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES JUST KEPT WITH THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES SHOW AN ABOVE NORMAL TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WINDS WILL THEN RETURN FROM THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING.
NO CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




000
FXUS63 KUNR 212013
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
213 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SLOWLY MOVING EAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NV
MOVING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. COULD BE A FEW BREEZY SPOTS OVER THE
FAVORED NORTHEAST WY/HILLS LOCATIONS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS/WARM AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WY WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT FROM MT INTO WESTERN NE. LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
EVENTUALLY CREATE SOME CAPE OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
SPOTS AHEAD OF TROUGH LIKELY GIVEN TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY THE PRECIPITATION/MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY
GIVEN NOTICEABLY WARMER 850-700MB THERMAL PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM AND GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND RETROGRADING
BACK OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK OVER NEB/KS. WILL LEAVE OUT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS IS PROGGED TO REACH
THE HIGH PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. ISLD TO SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE WY TO SW SD MONDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...55





000
FXUS63 KUNR 212013
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
213 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SLOWLY MOVING EAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NV
MOVING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. COULD BE A FEW BREEZY SPOTS OVER THE
FAVORED NORTHEAST WY/HILLS LOCATIONS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS/WARM AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WY WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT FROM MT INTO WESTERN NE. LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
EVENTUALLY CREATE SOME CAPE OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
SPOTS AHEAD OF TROUGH LIKELY GIVEN TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY THE PRECIPITATION/MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY
GIVEN NOTICEABLY WARMER 850-700MB THERMAL PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM AND GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND RETROGRADING
BACK OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK OVER NEB/KS. WILL LEAVE OUT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS IS PROGGED TO REACH
THE HIGH PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. ISLD TO SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE WY TO SW SD MONDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...55




000
FXUS63 KFSD 212011
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
311 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

RECEDING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A NIGHT OF CLEAR SKIES WITH
SUBSIDENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
SCATTERED CLOUDS EAST WILL DISSIPATE VERY EARLY. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT TO CALM INCLUDING OVER THE DECOUPLED WEST AS WEAK SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO GET STARTED. DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...DO NOT SEE FOG WORTH MENTIONING ON THIS DAY
BEFORE THE EQUINOX. DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT AND VERY SHALLOW FOG TO
ISOLATED LOW AREAS INCLUDING A FEW SPOTS OVER RELATIVELY WARM
LAKES/PONDS/RIVERS. GENERAL VISIBILITY SHOULD NOT SUFFER.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DECENTLY TO THE 40 TO 45 RANGE.

MONDAY WILL START CLEAR ...THEN HIGH AND EVENTUALLY SOME MIDDLE
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE AREA
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...AS THIS MORNINGS CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW
APPROACHES SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. SUPPORT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALL FAR TOO WEAK TO THINK ABOUT ANY SHOWERS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. SUNSHINE WILL RULE EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SLOWLY BUT STEADILY AT
THE SURFACE BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 MPH IN SOUTHWEST MN AND
NORTHWEST IA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A TAD OF WARMING FROM
TODAY WITH LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE PRIMARY STORY IN THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM FORECAST IS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
TUESDAY...AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY MIDWEEK.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA WILL SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST...ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD FORM OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY...SO FEEL THE CHANCES OF THUNDER ARE RELATIVELY LOW.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SCATTERED ON TUESDAY...AND IT WILL PROVE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TEMPERATURES.

RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MID-LVL DRY
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER
THROUGH THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...GETTING CAUGHT
UNDER THE LARGER SYNOPTIC RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP BY MID-WEEK.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED AND IN THE END WE SHOULD JUST
SEE A BIT MORE DIURNAL CLOUD COVER THAN USUAL.  THE BIGGEST STORY
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW-LVL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 22/18Z. A FEW BROKEN CEILINGS 3-4K FEET
SOUTHWEST MN TODAY UNTIL 23Z. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL
PREVENT FOG LATE TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR VERY SHALLOW FOG IN ISOLATED
LOW AREAS SUCH AS OVER WARMER WATER SOURCES....THEREFORE NO
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS INCLUDED IN TAF FORECASTS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 211729
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1229 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND
15 KT OR LESS. WHILE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...THE ARRIVAL OF
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL...IT WILL OVERALL BE
QUITE A NICE LATE SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BEGIN SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES LOW SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 40S...HOWEVER
WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE...READINGS WILL NOT COMPLETELY
TANK. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN EARLIEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH IT BECOMING BREEZY WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER BY AFTERNOON. STILL THINK IT WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. DID BUMP HIGHS UP A BIT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY...SO
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 MONDAY NIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

PWAT VALUES DO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PVA AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF DECENT LIFT. SYSTEM DOES SEEM TO LACK PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
THOUGH...WITH MEAN LAYER RH VALUES NEVER GETTING TOO HIGH. SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE LOW LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH THE THOUGHT
THAT WE WILL SEE OFF AND ON SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...PROBABLY TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA. INSTABILITY IS
PRETTY MEAGER...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS WHEN WE MAY HAVE JUST
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO GET A THUNDERSTORM. SO WHILE SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT..CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
END UP A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW AS
WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. NOW LOOKS MORE PROBABLE THAT THINGS STAY MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE AND FORCING PUSHING EAST OF THE
AREA...THUS WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. SHOULD SEE
SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS
WELL. DID BUMP HIGHS UP SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH LOW TO MID
70S LIKELY.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD SEE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DID NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE...WITH
READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 LIKELY. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE MAY EVEN NEED TO BUMP THESE UP A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE GET
CLOSER. SO OVERALL LOOKING LIKE A NICE PERIOD OF WEATHER FROM MID
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ONE CAVEAT THAT IT WILL PROBABLY
END UP PRETTY BREEZY WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER
THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 22/18Z. A FEW BROKEN CEILINGS 3-4K FEET
SOUTHWEST MN TODAY UNTIL 23Z. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL
PREVENT FOG LATE TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR VERY SHALLOW FOG IN ISOLATED
LOW AREAS SUCH AS OVER WARMER WATER SOURCES....THEREFORE NO
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS INCLUDED IN TAF FORECASTS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KABR 211726 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. BASED ON NAM
SOUNDINGS AND THE CU RULE...SCT TO BKN CLOUDS SEEMS LIKELY ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU TODAY. THUS HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
IN THE NORTHEAST CWA. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IN THE NE
CWA...HIGHS HAVE BEEN LOWERED AS WELL.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA CURRENTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ALL NIGHT
WHICH HAS PREVENTED TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TODAY
BUT THATS ABOUT IT. WILL SEE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS THE
HIGH BEGINS EXITING...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. EXPECT VALLEY AREAS IN
THE EASTERN CWA TO BE THE COOLEST SPOTS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND WILL BE WATCHING THE
ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. MODELS SHOWING
THIS ENERGY MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIR AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS IN BRINGING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SD. GFS ON THE DRY SIDE BUT IT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS
POINT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH WED
MORNING. STUCK WITH ALLBLEND AGAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS
AND ECMWF. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER THAN THE EC
DURING THIS PERIOD. BY WED NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS
OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL WARM UNDER THE RIDGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WINDS WILL THEN RETURN FROM THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING.
NO CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 211725
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1125 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OF THE REGION TODAY AS THE SW
CONUS UPPER LOW EJECTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LL WAA WILL
SUPPORT AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AS SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW REVS UP. DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EJECTING LOW WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...WITH POS
THETA-E ADV PREVAILING THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LSA
WILL SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...ESP THE SE FA AS THE SW CONUS UPPER LOW EJECTS NE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED THETA-E RIDGE.

TODAY...DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SEASONAL TEMPS ALL PLACES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S UNDER GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. LL PRESSURE FALLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER POS THETA-E ADV PER THE
ADVANCING SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME. GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS NE WY AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN BH FOOTHILLS
OVERNIGHT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF PRESSURE FALLS. LACK OF APPRECIABLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH RELATIVELY STABLE PROFILES PER ELEVATED
CONVECTION PRECLUDES ANY POP MENTION TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED DRY ALL
PLACES.

MONDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE FA WITH
DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...EXPECTED MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY HAMPER THIS PROCESS...LEAVING SOME DOUBT TO
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY OUTSIDE NE WY. INCREASING LSA PER THE
ADVANCING IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS MOST
PLACES. HOWEVER...LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY WITH THE BULK OF
FORCING SHIFTING TOWARD SCENTRAL SD SUPPORTS MOSTLY LOW CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THROUGH MON NIGHT...SAVE
FOR SCENTRAL SD WHERE OVERLAP OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING/DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND. ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE FA IS
EXPECTED TO MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED AND MORE OF A WIDELY SCT TO
ISOLD NATURE. DID RAISE POPS OVER SCENTRAL SD TO HIGH CHANCE AND
LIKELIES...ESP TOWARD TRIPP COUNTY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WITH FORECAST MODELS SUPPORTING
WELL OVER AN INCH OF PW. HENCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE...ESP OVER SCENTRAL SD. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SEASONAL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.
DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM AND
GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE GFS KEEPS THIS LOW
FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE ECM HAS IT LINGERING OVER WESTERN SD
BEFORE IT GETS PUSHED BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. ALSO THE GFS IS
QUICKER THAN THE ECM WITH BRINGING EASTWARD THE BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ISLD TO SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE WY TO SW SD MONDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 211725
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1125 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OF THE REGION TODAY AS THE SW
CONUS UPPER LOW EJECTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LL WAA WILL
SUPPORT AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AS SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW REVS UP. DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EJECTING LOW WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...WITH POS
THETA-E ADV PREVAILING THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LSA
WILL SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...ESP THE SE FA AS THE SW CONUS UPPER LOW EJECTS NE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED THETA-E RIDGE.

TODAY...DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SEASONAL TEMPS ALL PLACES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S UNDER GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. LL PRESSURE FALLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER POS THETA-E ADV PER THE
ADVANCING SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME. GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS NE WY AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN BH FOOTHILLS
OVERNIGHT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF PRESSURE FALLS. LACK OF APPRECIABLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH RELATIVELY STABLE PROFILES PER ELEVATED
CONVECTION PRECLUDES ANY POP MENTION TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED DRY ALL
PLACES.

MONDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE FA WITH
DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...EXPECTED MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY HAMPER THIS PROCESS...LEAVING SOME DOUBT TO
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY OUTSIDE NE WY. INCREASING LSA PER THE
ADVANCING IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS MOST
PLACES. HOWEVER...LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY WITH THE BULK OF
FORCING SHIFTING TOWARD SCENTRAL SD SUPPORTS MOSTLY LOW CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THROUGH MON NIGHT...SAVE
FOR SCENTRAL SD WHERE OVERLAP OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING/DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND. ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE FA IS
EXPECTED TO MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED AND MORE OF A WIDELY SCT TO
ISOLD NATURE. DID RAISE POPS OVER SCENTRAL SD TO HIGH CHANCE AND
LIKELIES...ESP TOWARD TRIPP COUNTY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WITH FORECAST MODELS SUPPORTING
WELL OVER AN INCH OF PW. HENCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE...ESP OVER SCENTRAL SD. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SEASONAL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.
DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM AND
GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE GFS KEEPS THIS LOW
FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE ECM HAS IT LINGERING OVER WESTERN SD
BEFORE IT GETS PUSHED BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. ALSO THE GFS IS
QUICKER THAN THE ECM WITH BRINGING EASTWARD THE BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ISLD TO SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE WY TO SW SD MONDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KFSD 211708
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1208 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND
15 KT OR LESS. WHILE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...THE ARRIVAL OF
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL...IT WILL OVERALL BE
QUITE A NICE LATE SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BEGIN SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES LOW SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 40S...HOWEVER
WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE...READINGS WILL NOT COMPLETELY
TANK. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN EARLIEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH IT BECOMING BREEZY WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER BY AFTERNOON. STILL THINK IT WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. DID BUMP HIGHS UP A BIT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY...SO
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 MONDAY NIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

PWAT VALUES DO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PVA AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF DECENT LIFT. SYSTEM DOES SEEM TO LACK PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
THOUGH...WITH MEAN LAYER RH VALUES NEVER GETTING TOO HIGH. SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE LOW LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH THE THOUGHT
THAT WE WILL SEE OFF AND ON SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...PROBABLY TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA. INSTABILITY IS
PRETTY MEAGER...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS WHEN WE MAY HAVE JUST
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO GET A THUNDERSTORM. SO WHILE SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT..CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
END UP A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW AS
WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. NOW LOOKS MORE PROBABLE THAT THINGS STAY MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE AND FORCING PUSHING EAST OF THE
AREA...THUS WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. SHOULD SEE
SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS
WELL. DID BUMP HIGHS UP SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH LOW TO MID
70S LIKELY.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD SEE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DID NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE...WITH
READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 LIKELY. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE MAY EVEN NEED TO BUMP THESE UP A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE GET
CLOSER. SO OVERALL LOOKING LIKE A NICE PERIOD OF WEATHER FROM MID
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ONE CAVEAT THAT IT WILL PROBABLY
END UP PRETTY BREEZY WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER
THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. BREEZY NORTH
WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO
REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW AFTERNOON CU WILL
DISSIPATE LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KABR 211540 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1040 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. BASED ON NAM
SOUNDINGS AND THE CU RULE...SCT TO BKN CLOUDS SEEMS LIKELY ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU TODAY. THUS HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
IN THE NORTHEAST CWA. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IN THE NE
CWA...HIGHS HAVE BEEN LOWERED AS WELL.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA CURRENTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ALL NIGHT
WHICH HAS PREVENTED TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TODAY
BUT THATS ABOUT IT. WILL SEE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS THE
HIGH BEGINS EXITING...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. EXPECT VALLEY AREAS IN
THE EASTERN CWA TO BE THE COOLEST SPOTS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND WILL BE WATCHING THE
ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. MODELS SHOWING
THIS ENERGY MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIR AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS IN BRINGING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SD. GFS ON THE DRY SIDE BUT IT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS
POINT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH WED MORNING.
STUCK WITH ALLBLEND AGAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND
ECMWF. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER THAN THE EC DURING
THIS PERIOD. BY WED NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS OVER
THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL WARM UNDER THE RIDGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ADDED
IN SOME WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING AT KABR/KATY WITH WINDS ALOFT
AROUND 25 TO 35 KTS IN THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. SFC WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY EXCEPT AT KATY WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REACH 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 211134 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
634 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA CURRENTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ALL NIGHT
WHICH HAS PREVENTED TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TODAY
BUT THATS ABOUT IT. WILL SEE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS THE
HIGH BEGINS EXITING...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. EXPECT VALLEY AREAS IN
THE EASTERN CWA TO BE THE COOLEST SPOTS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND WILL BE WATCHING THE
ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. MODELS SHOWING
THIS ENERGY MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIR AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS IN BRINGING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SD. GFS ON THE DRY SIDE BUT IT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS
POINT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH WED MORNING.
STUCK WITH ALLBLEND AGAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND
ECMWF. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER THAN THE EC DURING
THIS PERIOD. BY WED NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS OVER
THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL WARM UNDER THE RIDGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ADDED
IN SOME WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING AT KABR/KATY WITH WINDS ALOFT
AROUND 25 TO 35 KTS IN THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. SFC WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY EXCEPT AT KATY WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REACH 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 211134 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
634 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA CURRENTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ALL NIGHT
WHICH HAS PREVENTED TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TODAY
BUT THATS ABOUT IT. WILL SEE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS THE
HIGH BEGINS EXITING...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. EXPECT VALLEY AREAS IN
THE EASTERN CWA TO BE THE COOLEST SPOTS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND WILL BE WATCHING THE
ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. MODELS SHOWING
THIS ENERGY MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIR AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS IN BRINGING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SD. GFS ON THE DRY SIDE BUT IT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS
POINT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH WED MORNING.
STUCK WITH ALLBLEND AGAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND
ECMWF. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER THAN THE EC DURING
THIS PERIOD. BY WED NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS OVER
THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL WARM UNDER THE RIDGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ADDED
IN SOME WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING AT KABR/KATY WITH WINDS ALOFT
AROUND 25 TO 35 KTS IN THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. SFC WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY EXCEPT AT KATY WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REACH 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 211134 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
634 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA CURRENTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ALL NIGHT
WHICH HAS PREVENTED TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TODAY
BUT THATS ABOUT IT. WILL SEE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS THE
HIGH BEGINS EXITING...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. EXPECT VALLEY AREAS IN
THE EASTERN CWA TO BE THE COOLEST SPOTS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND WILL BE WATCHING THE
ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. MODELS SHOWING
THIS ENERGY MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIR AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS IN BRINGING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SD. GFS ON THE DRY SIDE BUT IT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS
POINT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH WED MORNING.
STUCK WITH ALLBLEND AGAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND
ECMWF. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER THAN THE EC DURING
THIS PERIOD. BY WED NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS OVER
THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL WARM UNDER THE RIDGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ADDED
IN SOME WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING AT KABR/KATY WITH WINDS ALOFT
AROUND 25 TO 35 KTS IN THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. SFC WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY EXCEPT AT KATY WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REACH 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 211134 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
634 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA CURRENTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ALL NIGHT
WHICH HAS PREVENTED TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TODAY
BUT THATS ABOUT IT. WILL SEE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS THE
HIGH BEGINS EXITING...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. EXPECT VALLEY AREAS IN
THE EASTERN CWA TO BE THE COOLEST SPOTS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND WILL BE WATCHING THE
ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. MODELS SHOWING
THIS ENERGY MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIR AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS IN BRINGING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SD. GFS ON THE DRY SIDE BUT IT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS
POINT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH WED MORNING.
STUCK WITH ALLBLEND AGAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND
ECMWF. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER THAN THE EC DURING
THIS PERIOD. BY WED NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS OVER
THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL WARM UNDER THE RIDGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ADDED
IN SOME WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING AT KABR/KATY WITH WINDS ALOFT
AROUND 25 TO 35 KTS IN THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. SFC WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY EXCEPT AT KATY WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REACH 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 211130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND
15 KT OR LESS. WHILE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...THE ARRIVAL OF
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL...IT WILL OVERALL BE
QUITE A NICE LATE SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BEGIN SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES LOW SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 40S...HOWEVER
WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE...READINGS WILL NOT COMPLETELY
TANK. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN EARLIEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH IT BECOMING BREEZY WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER BY AFTERNOON. STILL THINK IT WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. DID BUMP HIGHS UP A BIT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY...SO
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 MONDAY NIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

PWAT VALUES DO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PVA AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF DECENT LIFT. SYSTEM DOES SEEM TO LACK PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
THOUGH...WITH MEAN LAYER RH VALUES NEVER GETTING TOO HIGH. SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE LOW LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH THE THOUGHT
THAT WE WILL SEE OFF AND ON SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...PROBABLY TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA. INSTABILITY IS
PRETTY MEAGER...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS WHEN WE MAY HAVE JUST
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO GET A THUNDERSTORM. SO WHILE SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT..CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
END UP A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW AS
WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. NOW LOOKS MORE PROBABLE THAT THINGS STAY MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE AND FORCING PUSHING EAST OF THE
AREA...THUS WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. SHOULD SEE
SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS
WELL. DID BUMP HIGHS UP SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH LOW TO MID
70S LIKELY.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD SEE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DID NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE...WITH
READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 LIKELY. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE MAY EVEN NEED TO BUMP THESE UP A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE GET
CLOSER. SO OVERALL LOOKING LIKE A NICE PERIOD OF WEATHER FROM MID
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ONE CAVEAT THAT IT WILL PROBABLY
END UP PRETTY BREEZY WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER
THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 211130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND
15 KT OR LESS. WHILE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...THE ARRIVAL OF
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL...IT WILL OVERALL BE
QUITE A NICE LATE SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BEGIN SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES LOW SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 40S...HOWEVER
WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE...READINGS WILL NOT COMPLETELY
TANK. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN EARLIEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH IT BECOMING BREEZY WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER BY AFTERNOON. STILL THINK IT WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. DID BUMP HIGHS UP A BIT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY...SO
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 MONDAY NIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

PWAT VALUES DO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PVA AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF DECENT LIFT. SYSTEM DOES SEEM TO LACK PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
THOUGH...WITH MEAN LAYER RH VALUES NEVER GETTING TOO HIGH. SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE LOW LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH THE THOUGHT
THAT WE WILL SEE OFF AND ON SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...PROBABLY TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA. INSTABILITY IS
PRETTY MEAGER...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS WHEN WE MAY HAVE JUST
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO GET A THUNDERSTORM. SO WHILE SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT..CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
END UP A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW AS
WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. NOW LOOKS MORE PROBABLE THAT THINGS STAY MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE AND FORCING PUSHING EAST OF THE
AREA...THUS WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. SHOULD SEE
SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS
WELL. DID BUMP HIGHS UP SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH LOW TO MID
70S LIKELY.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD SEE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DID NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE...WITH
READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 LIKELY. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE MAY EVEN NEED TO BUMP THESE UP A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE GET
CLOSER. SO OVERALL LOOKING LIKE A NICE PERIOD OF WEATHER FROM MID
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ONE CAVEAT THAT IT WILL PROBABLY
END UP PRETTY BREEZY WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER
THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 211130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND
15 KT OR LESS. WHILE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...THE ARRIVAL OF
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL...IT WILL OVERALL BE
QUITE A NICE LATE SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BEGIN SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES LOW SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 40S...HOWEVER
WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE...READINGS WILL NOT COMPLETELY
TANK. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN EARLIEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH IT BECOMING BREEZY WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER BY AFTERNOON. STILL THINK IT WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. DID BUMP HIGHS UP A BIT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY...SO
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 MONDAY NIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

PWAT VALUES DO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PVA AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF DECENT LIFT. SYSTEM DOES SEEM TO LACK PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
THOUGH...WITH MEAN LAYER RH VALUES NEVER GETTING TOO HIGH. SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE LOW LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH THE THOUGHT
THAT WE WILL SEE OFF AND ON SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...PROBABLY TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA. INSTABILITY IS
PRETTY MEAGER...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS WHEN WE MAY HAVE JUST
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO GET A THUNDERSTORM. SO WHILE SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT..CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
END UP A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW AS
WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. NOW LOOKS MORE PROBABLE THAT THINGS STAY MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE AND FORCING PUSHING EAST OF THE
AREA...THUS WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. SHOULD SEE
SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS
WELL. DID BUMP HIGHS UP SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH LOW TO MID
70S LIKELY.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD SEE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DID NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE...WITH
READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 LIKELY. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE MAY EVEN NEED TO BUMP THESE UP A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE GET
CLOSER. SO OVERALL LOOKING LIKE A NICE PERIOD OF WEATHER FROM MID
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ONE CAVEAT THAT IT WILL PROBABLY
END UP PRETTY BREEZY WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER
THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 211130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND
15 KT OR LESS. WHILE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...THE ARRIVAL OF
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL...IT WILL OVERALL BE
QUITE A NICE LATE SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BEGIN SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES LOW SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 40S...HOWEVER
WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE...READINGS WILL NOT COMPLETELY
TANK. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN EARLIEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH IT BECOMING BREEZY WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER BY AFTERNOON. STILL THINK IT WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. DID BUMP HIGHS UP A BIT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY...SO
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 MONDAY NIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

PWAT VALUES DO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PVA AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF DECENT LIFT. SYSTEM DOES SEEM TO LACK PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
THOUGH...WITH MEAN LAYER RH VALUES NEVER GETTING TOO HIGH. SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE LOW LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH THE THOUGHT
THAT WE WILL SEE OFF AND ON SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...PROBABLY TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA. INSTABILITY IS
PRETTY MEAGER...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS WHEN WE MAY HAVE JUST
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO GET A THUNDERSTORM. SO WHILE SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT..CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
END UP A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW AS
WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. NOW LOOKS MORE PROBABLE THAT THINGS STAY MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE AND FORCING PUSHING EAST OF THE
AREA...THUS WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. SHOULD SEE
SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS
WELL. DID BUMP HIGHS UP SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH LOW TO MID
70S LIKELY.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD SEE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DID NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE...WITH
READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 LIKELY. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE MAY EVEN NEED TO BUMP THESE UP A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE GET
CLOSER. SO OVERALL LOOKING LIKE A NICE PERIOD OF WEATHER FROM MID
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ONE CAVEAT THAT IT WILL PROBABLY
END UP PRETTY BREEZY WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER
THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KFSD 210905
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
405 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND
15 KT OR LESS. WHILE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...THE ARRIVAL OF
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL...IT WILL OVERALL BE
QUITE A NICE LATE SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BEGIN SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES LOW SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 40S...HOWEVER
WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE...READINGS WILL NOT COMPLETELY
TANK. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN EARLIEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH IT BECOMING BREEZY WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER BY AFTERNOON. STILL THINK IT WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. DID BUMP HIGHS UP A BIT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY...SO
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 MONDAY NIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

PWAT VALUES DO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PVA AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF DECENT LIFT. SYSTEM DOES SEEM TO LACK PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
THOUGH...WITH MEAN LAYER RH VALUES NEVER GETTING TOO HIGH. SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE LOW LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH THE THOUGHT
THAT WE WILL SEE OFF AND ON SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...PROBABLY TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA. INSTABILITY IS
PRETTY MEAGER...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS WHEN WE MAY HAVE JUST
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO GET A THUNDERSTORM. SO WHILE SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT..CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
END UP A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW AS
WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. NOW LOOKS MORE PROBABLE THAT THINGS STAY MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE AND FORCING PUSHING EAST OF THE
AREA...THUS WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. SHOULD SEE
SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS
WELL. DID BUMP HIGHS UP SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH LOW TO MID
70S LIKELY.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD SEE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DID NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE...WITH
READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 LIKELY. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE MAY EVEN NEED TO BUMP THESE UP A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE GET
CLOSER. SO OVERALL LOOKING LIKE A NICE PERIOD OF WEATHER FROM MID
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ONE CAVEAT THAT IT WILL PROBABLY
END UP PRETTY BREEZY WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER
THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KFSD 210905
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
405 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND
15 KT OR LESS. WHILE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...THE ARRIVAL OF
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL...IT WILL OVERALL BE
QUITE A NICE LATE SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BEGIN SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES LOW SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 40S...HOWEVER
WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE...READINGS WILL NOT COMPLETELY
TANK. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN EARLIEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH IT BECOMING BREEZY WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER BY AFTERNOON. STILL THINK IT WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. DID BUMP HIGHS UP A BIT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY...SO
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 MONDAY NIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

PWAT VALUES DO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PVA AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF DECENT LIFT. SYSTEM DOES SEEM TO LACK PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
THOUGH...WITH MEAN LAYER RH VALUES NEVER GETTING TOO HIGH. SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE LOW LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH THE THOUGHT
THAT WE WILL SEE OFF AND ON SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...PROBABLY TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA. INSTABILITY IS
PRETTY MEAGER...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS WHEN WE MAY HAVE JUST
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO GET A THUNDERSTORM. SO WHILE SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT..CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
END UP A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW AS
WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. NOW LOOKS MORE PROBABLE THAT THINGS STAY MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE AND FORCING PUSHING EAST OF THE
AREA...THUS WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. SHOULD SEE
SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS
WELL. DID BUMP HIGHS UP SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH LOW TO MID
70S LIKELY.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD SEE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DID NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE...WITH
READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 LIKELY. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE MAY EVEN NEED TO BUMP THESE UP A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE GET
CLOSER. SO OVERALL LOOKING LIKE A NICE PERIOD OF WEATHER FROM MID
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ONE CAVEAT THAT IT WILL PROBABLY
END UP PRETTY BREEZY WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER
THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KABR 210848
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA CURRENTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ALL NIGHT
WHICH HAS PREVENTED TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TODAY
BUT THATS ABOUT IT. WILL SEE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS THE
HIGH BEGINS EXITING...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. EXPECT VALLEY AREAS IN
THE EASTERN CWA TO BE THE COOLEST SPOTS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND WILL BE WATCHING THE
ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. MODELS SHOWING
THIS ENERGY MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIR AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS IN BRINGING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SD. GFS ON THE DRY SIDE BUT IT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS
POINT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH WED MORNING.
STUCK WITH ALLBLEND AGAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND
ECMWF. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER THAN THE EC DURING
THIS PERIOD. BY WED NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS OVER
THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL WARM UNDER THE RIDGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH VALID
FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLD MID CLOUD MAY SLIDE ACROSS THE KATY TERMINAL
LOCATION BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION
WITHIN THE TERMINAL FORECAST.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 210848
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA CURRENTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ALL NIGHT
WHICH HAS PREVENTED TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TODAY
BUT THATS ABOUT IT. WILL SEE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS THE
HIGH BEGINS EXITING...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. EXPECT VALLEY AREAS IN
THE EASTERN CWA TO BE THE COOLEST SPOTS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND WILL BE WATCHING THE
ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. MODELS SHOWING
THIS ENERGY MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIR AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS IN BRINGING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SD. GFS ON THE DRY SIDE BUT IT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS
POINT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH WED MORNING.
STUCK WITH ALLBLEND AGAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND
ECMWF. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER THAN THE EC DURING
THIS PERIOD. BY WED NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS OVER
THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL WARM UNDER THE RIDGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH VALID
FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLD MID CLOUD MAY SLIDE ACROSS THE KATY TERMINAL
LOCATION BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION
WITHIN THE TERMINAL FORECAST.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 210848
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA CURRENTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ALL NIGHT
WHICH HAS PREVENTED TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TODAY
BUT THATS ABOUT IT. WILL SEE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS THE
HIGH BEGINS EXITING...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. EXPECT VALLEY AREAS IN
THE EASTERN CWA TO BE THE COOLEST SPOTS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND WILL BE WATCHING THE
ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. MODELS SHOWING
THIS ENERGY MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIR AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS IN BRINGING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SD. GFS ON THE DRY SIDE BUT IT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS
POINT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH WED MORNING.
STUCK WITH ALLBLEND AGAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND
ECMWF. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER THAN THE EC DURING
THIS PERIOD. BY WED NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS OVER
THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL WARM UNDER THE RIDGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH VALID
FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLD MID CLOUD MAY SLIDE ACROSS THE KATY TERMINAL
LOCATION BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION
WITHIN THE TERMINAL FORECAST.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 210848
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA CURRENTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ALL NIGHT
WHICH HAS PREVENTED TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TODAY
BUT THATS ABOUT IT. WILL SEE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS THE
HIGH BEGINS EXITING...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. EXPECT VALLEY AREAS IN
THE EASTERN CWA TO BE THE COOLEST SPOTS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND WILL BE WATCHING THE
ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. MODELS SHOWING
THIS ENERGY MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIR AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS IN BRINGING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SD. GFS ON THE DRY SIDE BUT IT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS
POINT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH WED MORNING.
STUCK WITH ALLBLEND AGAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND
ECMWF. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER THAN THE EC DURING
THIS PERIOD. BY WED NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS OVER
THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL WARM UNDER THE RIDGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH VALID
FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLD MID CLOUD MAY SLIDE ACROSS THE KATY TERMINAL
LOCATION BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION
WITHIN THE TERMINAL FORECAST.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 210806
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
206 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OF THE REGION TODAY AS THE SW
CONUS UPPER LOW EJECTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LL WAA WILL
SUPPORT AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AS SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW REVS UP. DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EJECTING LOW WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...WITH POS
THETA-E ADV PREVAILING THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LSA
WILL SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...ESP THE SE FA AS THE SW CONUS UPPER LOW EJECTS NE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED THETA-E RIDGE.

TODAY...DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SEASONAL TEMPS ALL PLACES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S UNDER GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. LL PRESSURE FALLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER POS THETA-E ADV PER THE
ADVANCING SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME. GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS NE WY AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN BH FOOTHILLS
OVERNIGHT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF PRESSURE FALLS. LACK OF APPRECIABLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH RELATIVELY STABLE PROFILES PER ELEVATED
CONVECTION PRECLUDES ANY POP MENTION TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED DRY ALL
PLACES.

MONDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE FA WITH
DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...EXPECTED MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY HAMPER THIS PROCESS...LEAVING SOME DOUBT TO
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY OUTSIDE NE WY. INCREASING LSA PER THE
ADVANCING IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS MOST
PLACES. HOWEVER...LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY WITH THE BULK OF
FORCING SHIFTING TOWARD SCENTRAL SD SUPPORTS MOSTLY LOW CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THROUGH MON NIGHT...SAVE
FOR SCENTRAL SD WHERE OVERLAP OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING/DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND. ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE FA IS
EXPECTED TO MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED AND MORE OF A WIDELY SCT TO
ISOLD NATURE. DID RAISE POPS OVER SCENTRAL SD TO HIGH CHANCE AND
LIKELIES...ESP TOWARD TRIPP COUNTY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WITH FORECAST MODELS SUPPORTING
WELL OVER AN INCH OF PW. HENCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE...ESP OVER SCENTRAL SD. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SEASONAL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.
DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM AND
GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE GFS KEEPS THIS LOW
FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE ECM HAS IT LINGERING OVER WESTERN SD
BEFORE IT GETS PUSHED BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. ALSO THE GFS IS
QUICKER THAN THE ECM WITH BRINGING EASTWARD THE BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

BESIDES SOME BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE






000
FXUS63 KUNR 210806
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
206 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OF THE REGION TODAY AS THE SW
CONUS UPPER LOW EJECTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LL WAA WILL
SUPPORT AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AS SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW REVS UP. DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EJECTING LOW WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...WITH POS
THETA-E ADV PREVAILING THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LSA
WILL SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...ESP THE SE FA AS THE SW CONUS UPPER LOW EJECTS NE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED THETA-E RIDGE.

TODAY...DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SEASONAL TEMPS ALL PLACES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S UNDER GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. LL PRESSURE FALLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER POS THETA-E ADV PER THE
ADVANCING SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME. GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS NE WY AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN BH FOOTHILLS
OVERNIGHT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF PRESSURE FALLS. LACK OF APPRECIABLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH RELATIVELY STABLE PROFILES PER ELEVATED
CONVECTION PRECLUDES ANY POP MENTION TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED DRY ALL
PLACES.

MONDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE FA WITH
DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...EXPECTED MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY HAMPER THIS PROCESS...LEAVING SOME DOUBT TO
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY OUTSIDE NE WY. INCREASING LSA PER THE
ADVANCING IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS MOST
PLACES. HOWEVER...LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY WITH THE BULK OF
FORCING SHIFTING TOWARD SCENTRAL SD SUPPORTS MOSTLY LOW CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THROUGH MON NIGHT...SAVE
FOR SCENTRAL SD WHERE OVERLAP OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING/DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND. ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE FA IS
EXPECTED TO MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED AND MORE OF A WIDELY SCT TO
ISOLD NATURE. DID RAISE POPS OVER SCENTRAL SD TO HIGH CHANCE AND
LIKELIES...ESP TOWARD TRIPP COUNTY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WITH FORECAST MODELS SUPPORTING
WELL OVER AN INCH OF PW. HENCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE...ESP OVER SCENTRAL SD. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SEASONAL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.
DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM AND
GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE GFS KEEPS THIS LOW
FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE ECM HAS IT LINGERING OVER WESTERN SD
BEFORE IT GETS PUSHED BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. ALSO THE GFS IS
QUICKER THAN THE ECM WITH BRINGING EASTWARD THE BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

BESIDES SOME BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE






000
FXUS63 KUNR 210806
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
206 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OF THE REGION TODAY AS THE SW
CONUS UPPER LOW EJECTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LL WAA WILL
SUPPORT AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AS SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW REVS UP. DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EJECTING LOW WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...WITH POS
THETA-E ADV PREVAILING THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LSA
WILL SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...ESP THE SE FA AS THE SW CONUS UPPER LOW EJECTS NE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED THETA-E RIDGE.

TODAY...DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SEASONAL TEMPS ALL PLACES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S UNDER GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. LL PRESSURE FALLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER POS THETA-E ADV PER THE
ADVANCING SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME. GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS NE WY AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN BH FOOTHILLS
OVERNIGHT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF PRESSURE FALLS. LACK OF APPRECIABLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH RELATIVELY STABLE PROFILES PER ELEVATED
CONVECTION PRECLUDES ANY POP MENTION TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED DRY ALL
PLACES.

MONDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE FA WITH
DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...EXPECTED MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY HAMPER THIS PROCESS...LEAVING SOME DOUBT TO
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY OUTSIDE NE WY. INCREASING LSA PER THE
ADVANCING IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS MOST
PLACES. HOWEVER...LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY WITH THE BULK OF
FORCING SHIFTING TOWARD SCENTRAL SD SUPPORTS MOSTLY LOW CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THROUGH MON NIGHT...SAVE
FOR SCENTRAL SD WHERE OVERLAP OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING/DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND. ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE FA IS
EXPECTED TO MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED AND MORE OF A WIDELY SCT TO
ISOLD NATURE. DID RAISE POPS OVER SCENTRAL SD TO HIGH CHANCE AND
LIKELIES...ESP TOWARD TRIPP COUNTY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WITH FORECAST MODELS SUPPORTING
WELL OVER AN INCH OF PW. HENCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE...ESP OVER SCENTRAL SD. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SEASONAL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.
DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM AND
GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE GFS KEEPS THIS LOW
FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE ECM HAS IT LINGERING OVER WESTERN SD
BEFORE IT GETS PUSHED BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. ALSO THE GFS IS
QUICKER THAN THE ECM WITH BRINGING EASTWARD THE BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

BESIDES SOME BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE






000
FXUS63 KUNR 210806
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
206 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OF THE REGION TODAY AS THE SW
CONUS UPPER LOW EJECTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LL WAA WILL
SUPPORT AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AS SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW REVS UP. DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EJECTING LOW WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...WITH POS
THETA-E ADV PREVAILING THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LSA
WILL SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...ESP THE SE FA AS THE SW CONUS UPPER LOW EJECTS NE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED THETA-E RIDGE.

TODAY...DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SEASONAL TEMPS ALL PLACES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S UNDER GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. LL PRESSURE FALLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER POS THETA-E ADV PER THE
ADVANCING SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME. GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS NE WY AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN BH FOOTHILLS
OVERNIGHT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF PRESSURE FALLS. LACK OF APPRECIABLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH RELATIVELY STABLE PROFILES PER ELEVATED
CONVECTION PRECLUDES ANY POP MENTION TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED DRY ALL
PLACES.

MONDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE FA WITH
DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...EXPECTED MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY HAMPER THIS PROCESS...LEAVING SOME DOUBT TO
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY OUTSIDE NE WY. INCREASING LSA PER THE
ADVANCING IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS MOST
PLACES. HOWEVER...LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY WITH THE BULK OF
FORCING SHIFTING TOWARD SCENTRAL SD SUPPORTS MOSTLY LOW CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THROUGH MON NIGHT...SAVE
FOR SCENTRAL SD WHERE OVERLAP OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING/DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND. ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE FA IS
EXPECTED TO MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED AND MORE OF A WIDELY SCT TO
ISOLD NATURE. DID RAISE POPS OVER SCENTRAL SD TO HIGH CHANCE AND
LIKELIES...ESP TOWARD TRIPP COUNTY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WITH FORECAST MODELS SUPPORTING
WELL OVER AN INCH OF PW. HENCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE...ESP OVER SCENTRAL SD. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SEASONAL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.
DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM AND
GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE GFS KEEPS THIS LOW
FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE ECM HAS IT LINGERING OVER WESTERN SD
BEFORE IT GETS PUSHED BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. ALSO THE GFS IS
QUICKER THAN THE ECM WITH BRINGING EASTWARD THE BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

BESIDES SOME BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE






000
FXUS63 KABR 210526 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER NERN
SD AND WRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MODERATE TO HIGH

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY CONTINUES TO TRACK
ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT HAS LED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN ND AND NERN SD...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE I-29 CORRIDOR AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED RATHER
MEAGER /MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/ DUE TO MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE /40+ KNOTS/...SO A FEW
MINI-SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS ARE LIKELY...EMBEDDED IN THE BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITIY
WILL MOVE E/SEWD FAIRLY RAPIDLY...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA
BY 5 TO 6 PM.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A RATHER SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE
TAKING PLACE WITH A BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK WAVE WILL UNDERCUT THIS FEATURE MONDAY NIGHT. PROFILES
UNDER THIS REGIME SUGGEST A HEAVILY MODIFIED PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE...WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THE WEAK WAVE REINTEGRATES WITH THE JET
STREAM AROUND MID WEEK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL
BE THE END SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS TO THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH VALID
FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLD MID CLOUD MAY SLIDE ACROSS THE KATY TERMINAL
LOCATION BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION
WITHIN THE TERMINAL FORECAST.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...FOWLE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 210526 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER NERN
SD AND WRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MODERATE TO HIGH

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY CONTINUES TO TRACK
ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT HAS LED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN ND AND NERN SD...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE I-29 CORRIDOR AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED RATHER
MEAGER /MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/ DUE TO MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE /40+ KNOTS/...SO A FEW
MINI-SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS ARE LIKELY...EMBEDDED IN THE BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITIY
WILL MOVE E/SEWD FAIRLY RAPIDLY...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA
BY 5 TO 6 PM.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A RATHER SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE
TAKING PLACE WITH A BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK WAVE WILL UNDERCUT THIS FEATURE MONDAY NIGHT. PROFILES
UNDER THIS REGIME SUGGEST A HEAVILY MODIFIED PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE...WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THE WEAK WAVE REINTEGRATES WITH THE JET
STREAM AROUND MID WEEK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL
BE THE END SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS TO THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH VALID
FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLD MID CLOUD MAY SLIDE ACROSS THE KATY TERMINAL
LOCATION BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION
WITHIN THE TERMINAL FORECAST.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...FOWLE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KUNR 210510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE SD PLAINS
WITH WINDS PEAKING SO WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UNTIL EXPIRATION AT
23Z.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL OFF NICELY WITH READINGS
NEAR GUIDANCE BY MORNING.

SUNDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE MOVES FROM THE CWA TO THE
MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OVER THE WEST
WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO ID/WY/UT...PINCHING OFF UPPER
RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLOWER RETURN OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON POPS UNTIL VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT ABOUT A CUT-OFF LOW CROSSING THE
REGION THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS...HOWEVER NOW BOTH THE ECM AND GFS SHOW A
SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. MODELS SHOWED A SIMILAR SOLUTION TWO OR THREE DAYS AGO
BEFORE QUICKLY ABANDONING IT...BUT NOW ITS BACK AGAIN. EITHER
WAY...SEE NO REASON TO ADD POPS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...10






000
FXUS63 KUNR 210510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE SD PLAINS
WITH WINDS PEAKING SO WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UNTIL EXPIRATION AT
23Z.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL OFF NICELY WITH READINGS
NEAR GUIDANCE BY MORNING.

SUNDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE MOVES FROM THE CWA TO THE
MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OVER THE WEST
WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO ID/WY/UT...PINCHING OFF UPPER
RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLOWER RETURN OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON POPS UNTIL VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT ABOUT A CUT-OFF LOW CROSSING THE
REGION THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS...HOWEVER NOW BOTH THE ECM AND GFS SHOW A
SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. MODELS SHOWED A SIMILAR SOLUTION TWO OR THREE DAYS AGO
BEFORE QUICKLY ABANDONING IT...BUT NOW ITS BACK AGAIN. EITHER
WAY...SEE NO REASON TO ADD POPS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KFSD 210424
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1124 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POTENT SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG 140+ KNOT UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
DROPPING SE THROUGH THE REGION. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A WEAK PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EDGE EASTWARD TOWARD THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MORE POTENT FRONT...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S AND TEMPERATURE QUICKLY MIXING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES
AS THE UPPER WAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA.  LATEST HI-RES DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR TAIL END STORMS ON THE SWRN
FLANK OF MORE ORGANIZED MCS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW INSTABILITY AND HIGH SHEAR SETUP WOULD SUPPORT LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION...AND EVEN A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS.  THE MAIN RISKS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN AMBIENT FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND
STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THIN CAPE PROFILES AND PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY...WOULD LEAN AGAINST A LARGE HAIL RISK.

ANY RISK OF CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE VERY EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE EFFECTIVE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY 7PM.
ANTICIPATING A BRIEF WINDOW OF RATHER GUSTY WINDS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY PLEASANT.  WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH
TEMPERATURES EITHER SIDE OF THE 70 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND PRETTY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IT SHOULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 40S AND BE
THE COOLEST NIGHT IN THIS STRETCH. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING THE
SLOW APPROACH FROM THE SW OF CURRENT SOUTHERN CA TROUGH CUTTING
THROUGH THE ROCKIES RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING HALF
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT NOT TOO MUCH LIFT AND INSTABILITY.
TIMING PUTS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A VERY FEW
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST SD...OVER THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DECREASING THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME OF
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE MARKED BY A LOW DIURNAL RANGE WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

THE ABATING OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAKE PLACE WITH THE PASSING OF THE
WAVE. GFS THEN SHOWS A WAVE BREAKING OFF FROM THE CANADIAN JET AND
DIGGING AROUND REBUILDING ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE. THE EC SHOWS A BROAD
BUILDING OF HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE USA WITH A
VERY WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. BECAUSE THIS FEATURE IS SHOWN SO
WEAK...THIS WOULD TEND TO BRING IN DRY AIR FROM THE RIDGING TO THE
EAST. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH DRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY SINCE EVEN THE
GFS SHOWS WEAK THERMODYNAMICS...INCLUDING WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH
ITS STRONGER SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WOULD WARM BACK FULLY INTO THE 70S WHILE LOWS WOULD STAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KFSD 210424
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1124 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POTENT SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG 140+ KNOT UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
DROPPING SE THROUGH THE REGION. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A WEAK PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EDGE EASTWARD TOWARD THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MORE POTENT FRONT...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S AND TEMPERATURE QUICKLY MIXING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES
AS THE UPPER WAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA.  LATEST HI-RES DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR TAIL END STORMS ON THE SWRN
FLANK OF MORE ORGANIZED MCS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW INSTABILITY AND HIGH SHEAR SETUP WOULD SUPPORT LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION...AND EVEN A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS.  THE MAIN RISKS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN AMBIENT FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND
STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THIN CAPE PROFILES AND PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY...WOULD LEAN AGAINST A LARGE HAIL RISK.

ANY RISK OF CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE VERY EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE EFFECTIVE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY 7PM.
ANTICIPATING A BRIEF WINDOW OF RATHER GUSTY WINDS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY PLEASANT.  WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH
TEMPERATURES EITHER SIDE OF THE 70 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND PRETTY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IT SHOULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 40S AND BE
THE COOLEST NIGHT IN THIS STRETCH. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING THE
SLOW APPROACH FROM THE SW OF CURRENT SOUTHERN CA TROUGH CUTTING
THROUGH THE ROCKIES RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING HALF
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT NOT TOO MUCH LIFT AND INSTABILITY.
TIMING PUTS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A VERY FEW
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST SD...OVER THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DECREASING THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME OF
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE MARKED BY A LOW DIURNAL RANGE WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

THE ABATING OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAKE PLACE WITH THE PASSING OF THE
WAVE. GFS THEN SHOWS A WAVE BREAKING OFF FROM THE CANADIAN JET AND
DIGGING AROUND REBUILDING ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE. THE EC SHOWS A BROAD
BUILDING OF HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE USA WITH A
VERY WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. BECAUSE THIS FEATURE IS SHOWN SO
WEAK...THIS WOULD TEND TO BRING IN DRY AIR FROM THE RIDGING TO THE
EAST. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH DRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY SINCE EVEN THE
GFS SHOWS WEAK THERMODYNAMICS...INCLUDING WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH
ITS STRONGER SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WOULD WARM BACK FULLY INTO THE 70S WHILE LOWS WOULD STAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KABR 210225
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
925 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
DIMINISHING FROM EARLIER GUSTS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
SOUTWARD MOVING MID DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS ERN NORTH DAKOTA. THEY
MAY IMPACT FORECAST LOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA IF THEY HOLD
TOGETHER. OTW CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO WHOLESALE
CHANGES REQUIRED.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER NERN
SD AND WRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MODERATE TO HIGH

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY CONTINUES TO TRACK
ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT HAS LED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN ND AND NERN SD...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE I-29 CORRIDOR AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED RATHER
MEAGER /MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/ DUE TO MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE /40+ KNOTS/...SO A FEW
MINI-SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS ARE LIKELY...EMBEDDED IN THE BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITIY
WILL MOVE E/SEWD FAIRLY RAPIDLY...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA
BY 5 TO 6 PM.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A RATHER SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE
TAKING PLACE WITH A BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK WAVE WILL UNDERCUT THIS FEATURE MONDAY NIGHT. PROFILES
UNDER THIS REGIME SUGGEST A HEAVILY MODIFIED PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE...WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THE WEAK WAVE REINTEGRATES WITH THE JET
STREAM AROUND MID WEEK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL
BE THE END SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS TO THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS. GUSTY NW
WINDS AT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 14KTS BY 06Z...AND
UNDER 10KTS BY 10Z. FEW HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE CWA BUT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON VFR CONDS. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR SCT-BKN MID CLOUD DECK ACROSS NRN NORTH DAKOTA TO
SEE IF THEY STREAM DOWN OVER THE KABR AND KATY TERMINAL CLOSER TO
12Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...FOWLE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 210225
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
925 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
DIMINISHING FROM EARLIER GUSTS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
SOUTWARD MOVING MID DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS ERN NORTH DAKOTA. THEY
MAY IMPACT FORECAST LOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA IF THEY HOLD
TOGETHER. OTW CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO WHOLESALE
CHANGES REQUIRED.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER NERN
SD AND WRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MODERATE TO HIGH

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY CONTINUES TO TRACK
ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT HAS LED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN ND AND NERN SD...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE I-29 CORRIDOR AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED RATHER
MEAGER /MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/ DUE TO MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE /40+ KNOTS/...SO A FEW
MINI-SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS ARE LIKELY...EMBEDDED IN THE BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITIY
WILL MOVE E/SEWD FAIRLY RAPIDLY...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA
BY 5 TO 6 PM.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A RATHER SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE
TAKING PLACE WITH A BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK WAVE WILL UNDERCUT THIS FEATURE MONDAY NIGHT. PROFILES
UNDER THIS REGIME SUGGEST A HEAVILY MODIFIED PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE...WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THE WEAK WAVE REINTEGRATES WITH THE JET
STREAM AROUND MID WEEK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL
BE THE END SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS TO THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS. GUSTY NW
WINDS AT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 14KTS BY 06Z...AND
UNDER 10KTS BY 10Z. FEW HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE CWA BUT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON VFR CONDS. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR SCT-BKN MID CLOUD DECK ACROSS NRN NORTH DAKOTA TO
SEE IF THEY STREAM DOWN OVER THE KABR AND KATY TERMINAL CLOSER TO
12Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...FOWLE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 210225
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
925 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
DIMINISHING FROM EARLIER GUSTS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
SOUTWARD MOVING MID DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS ERN NORTH DAKOTA. THEY
MAY IMPACT FORECAST LOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA IF THEY HOLD
TOGETHER. OTW CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO WHOLESALE
CHANGES REQUIRED.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER NERN
SD AND WRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MODERATE TO HIGH

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY CONTINUES TO TRACK
ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT HAS LED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN ND AND NERN SD...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE I-29 CORRIDOR AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED RATHER
MEAGER /MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/ DUE TO MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE /40+ KNOTS/...SO A FEW
MINI-SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS ARE LIKELY...EMBEDDED IN THE BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITIY
WILL MOVE E/SEWD FAIRLY RAPIDLY...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA
BY 5 TO 6 PM.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A RATHER SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE
TAKING PLACE WITH A BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK WAVE WILL UNDERCUT THIS FEATURE MONDAY NIGHT. PROFILES
UNDER THIS REGIME SUGGEST A HEAVILY MODIFIED PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE...WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THE WEAK WAVE REINTEGRATES WITH THE JET
STREAM AROUND MID WEEK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL
BE THE END SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS TO THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS. GUSTY NW
WINDS AT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 14KTS BY 06Z...AND
UNDER 10KTS BY 10Z. FEW HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE CWA BUT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON VFR CONDS. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR SCT-BKN MID CLOUD DECK ACROSS NRN NORTH DAKOTA TO
SEE IF THEY STREAM DOWN OVER THE KABR AND KATY TERMINAL CLOSER TO
12Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...FOWLE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 210225
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
925 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
DIMINISHING FROM EARLIER GUSTS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
SOUTWARD MOVING MID DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS ERN NORTH DAKOTA. THEY
MAY IMPACT FORECAST LOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA IF THEY HOLD
TOGETHER. OTW CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO WHOLESALE
CHANGES REQUIRED.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER NERN
SD AND WRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MODERATE TO HIGH

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY CONTINUES TO TRACK
ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT HAS LED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN ND AND NERN SD...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE I-29 CORRIDOR AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED RATHER
MEAGER /MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/ DUE TO MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE /40+ KNOTS/...SO A FEW
MINI-SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS ARE LIKELY...EMBEDDED IN THE BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITIY
WILL MOVE E/SEWD FAIRLY RAPIDLY...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA
BY 5 TO 6 PM.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A RATHER SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE
TAKING PLACE WITH A BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK WAVE WILL UNDERCUT THIS FEATURE MONDAY NIGHT. PROFILES
UNDER THIS REGIME SUGGEST A HEAVILY MODIFIED PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE...WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THE WEAK WAVE REINTEGRATES WITH THE JET
STREAM AROUND MID WEEK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL
BE THE END SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS TO THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS. GUSTY NW
WINDS AT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 14KTS BY 06Z...AND
UNDER 10KTS BY 10Z. FEW HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE CWA BUT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON VFR CONDS. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR SCT-BKN MID CLOUD DECK ACROSS NRN NORTH DAKOTA TO
SEE IF THEY STREAM DOWN OVER THE KABR AND KATY TERMINAL CLOSER TO
12Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...FOWLE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 202344
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
644 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER NERN
SD AND WRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MODERATE TO HIGH

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY CONTINUES TO TRACK
ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT HAS LED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN ND AND NERN SD...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE I-29 CORRIDOR AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED RATHER
MEAGER /MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/ DUE TO MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE /40+ KNOTS/...SO A FEW
MINI-SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS ARE LIKELY...EMBEDDED IN THE BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITIY
WILL MOVE E/SEWD FAIRLY RAPIDLY...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA
BY 5 TO 6 PM.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A RATHER SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE
TAKING PLACE WITH A BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK WAVE WILL UNDERCUT THIS FEATURE MONDAY NIGHT. PROFILES
UNDER THIS REGIME SUGGEST A HEAVILY MODIFIED PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE...WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THE WEAK WAVE REINTEGRATES WITH THE JET
STREAM AROUND MID WEEK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL
BE THE END SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS TO THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS. GUSTY NW
WINDS AT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 14KTS BY 06Z...AND
UNDER 10KTS BY 10Z. FEW HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE CWA BUT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON VFR CONDS. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR SCT-BKN MID CLOUD DECK ACROSS NRN NORTH DAKOTA TO
SEE IF THEY STREAM DOWN OVER THE KABR AND KATY TERMINAL CLOSER TO
12Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...FOWLE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 202344
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
644 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER NERN
SD AND WRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MODERATE TO HIGH

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY CONTINUES TO TRACK
ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT HAS LED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN ND AND NERN SD...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE I-29 CORRIDOR AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED RATHER
MEAGER /MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/ DUE TO MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE /40+ KNOTS/...SO A FEW
MINI-SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS ARE LIKELY...EMBEDDED IN THE BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITIY
WILL MOVE E/SEWD FAIRLY RAPIDLY...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA
BY 5 TO 6 PM.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A RATHER SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE
TAKING PLACE WITH A BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK WAVE WILL UNDERCUT THIS FEATURE MONDAY NIGHT. PROFILES
UNDER THIS REGIME SUGGEST A HEAVILY MODIFIED PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE...WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THE WEAK WAVE REINTEGRATES WITH THE JET
STREAM AROUND MID WEEK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL
BE THE END SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS TO THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS. GUSTY NW
WINDS AT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 14KTS BY 06Z...AND
UNDER 10KTS BY 10Z. FEW HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE CWA BUT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON VFR CONDS. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR SCT-BKN MID CLOUD DECK ACROSS NRN NORTH DAKOTA TO
SEE IF THEY STREAM DOWN OVER THE KABR AND KATY TERMINAL CLOSER TO
12Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...FOWLE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 202331
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
631 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POTENT SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG 140+ KNOT UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
DROPPING SE THROUGH THE REGION. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A WEAK PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EDGE EASTWARD TOWARD THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MORE POTENT FRONT...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S AND TEMPERATURE QUICKLY MIXING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES
AS THE UPPER WAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA.  LATEST HI-RES DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR TAIL END STORMS ON THE SWRN
FLANK OF MORE ORGANIZED MCS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW INSTABILITY AND HIGH SHEAR SETUP WOULD SUPPORT LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION...AND EVEN A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS.  THE MAIN RISKS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN AMBIENT FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND
STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THIN CAPE PROFILES AND PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY...WOULD LEAN AGAINST A LARGE HAIL RISK.

ANY RISK OF CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE VERY EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE EFFECTIVE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY 7PM.
ANTICIPATING A BRIEF WINDOW OF RATHER GUSTY WINDS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY PLEASANT.  WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH
TEMPERATURES EITHER SIDE OF THE 70 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND PRETTY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IT SHOULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 40S AND BE
THE COOLEST NIGHT IN THIS STRETCH. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING THE
SLOW APPROACH FROM THE SW OF CURRENT SOUTHERN CA TROUGH CUTTING
THROUGH THE ROCKIES RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING HALF
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT NOT TOO MUCH LIFT AND INSTABILITY.
TIMING PUTS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A VERY FEW
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST SD...OVER THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DECREASING THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME OF
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE MARKED BY A LOW DIURNAL RANGE WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

THE ABATING OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAKE PLACE WITH THE PASSING OF THE
WAVE. GFS THEN SHOWS A WAVE BREAKING OFF FROM THE CANADIAN JET AND
DIGGING AROUND REBUILDING ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE. THE EC SHOWS A BROAD
BUILDING OF HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE USA WITH A
VERY WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. BECAUSE THIS FEATURE IS SHOWN SO
WEAK...THIS WOULD TEND TO BRING IN DRY AIR FROM THE RIDGING TO THE
EAST. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH DRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY SINCE EVEN THE
GFS SHOWS WEAK THERMODYNAMICS...INCLUDING WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH
ITS STRONGER SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WOULD WARM BACK FULLY INTO THE 70S WHILE LOWS WOULD STAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A WIND SHIFT FROM A WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I 90
CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNSET. AT THAT POINT...THE SURFACE WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE FROM THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. THEREFORE BY
THE TIME THE WIND SHIFT GETS TO KSUX SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...THE
KSUX TAF SITE MAY ESCAPE THE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 202331
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
631 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POTENT SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG 140+ KNOT UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
DROPPING SE THROUGH THE REGION. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A WEAK PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EDGE EASTWARD TOWARD THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MORE POTENT FRONT...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S AND TEMPERATURE QUICKLY MIXING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES
AS THE UPPER WAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA.  LATEST HI-RES DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR TAIL END STORMS ON THE SWRN
FLANK OF MORE ORGANIZED MCS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW INSTABILITY AND HIGH SHEAR SETUP WOULD SUPPORT LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION...AND EVEN A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS.  THE MAIN RISKS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN AMBIENT FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND
STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THIN CAPE PROFILES AND PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY...WOULD LEAN AGAINST A LARGE HAIL RISK.

ANY RISK OF CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE VERY EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE EFFECTIVE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY 7PM.
ANTICIPATING A BRIEF WINDOW OF RATHER GUSTY WINDS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY PLEASANT.  WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH
TEMPERATURES EITHER SIDE OF THE 70 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND PRETTY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IT SHOULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 40S AND BE
THE COOLEST NIGHT IN THIS STRETCH. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING THE
SLOW APPROACH FROM THE SW OF CURRENT SOUTHERN CA TROUGH CUTTING
THROUGH THE ROCKIES RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING HALF
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT NOT TOO MUCH LIFT AND INSTABILITY.
TIMING PUTS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A VERY FEW
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST SD...OVER THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DECREASING THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME OF
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE MARKED BY A LOW DIURNAL RANGE WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

THE ABATING OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAKE PLACE WITH THE PASSING OF THE
WAVE. GFS THEN SHOWS A WAVE BREAKING OFF FROM THE CANADIAN JET AND
DIGGING AROUND REBUILDING ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE. THE EC SHOWS A BROAD
BUILDING OF HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE USA WITH A
VERY WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. BECAUSE THIS FEATURE IS SHOWN SO
WEAK...THIS WOULD TEND TO BRING IN DRY AIR FROM THE RIDGING TO THE
EAST. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH DRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY SINCE EVEN THE
GFS SHOWS WEAK THERMODYNAMICS...INCLUDING WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH
ITS STRONGER SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WOULD WARM BACK FULLY INTO THE 70S WHILE LOWS WOULD STAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A WIND SHIFT FROM A WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I 90
CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNSET. AT THAT POINT...THE SURFACE WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE FROM THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. THEREFORE BY
THE TIME THE WIND SHIFT GETS TO KSUX SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...THE
KSUX TAF SITE MAY ESCAPE THE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KUNR 202303
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
503 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 459 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXPIRE
THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE SD PLAINS
WITH WINDS PEAKING SO WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UNTIL EXPIRATION AT
23Z.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL OFF NICELY WITH READINGS
NEAR GUIDANCE BY MORNING.

SUNDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE MOVES FROM THE CWA TO THE
MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OVER THE WEST
WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO ID/WY/UT...PINCHING OFF UPPER
RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLOWER RETURN OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON POPS UNTIL VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT ABOUT A CUT-OFF LOW CROSSING THE
REGION THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS...HOWEVER NOW BOTH THE ECM AND GFS SHOW A
SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. MODELS SHOWED A SIMILAR SOLUTION TWO OR THREE DAYS AGO
BEFORE QUICKLY ABANDONING IT...BUT NOW ITS BACK AGAIN. EITHER
WAY...SEE NO REASON TO ADD POPS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING.
ISSUED AT 501 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 202303
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
503 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 459 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXPIRE
THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE SD PLAINS
WITH WINDS PEAKING SO WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UNTIL EXPIRATION AT
23Z.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL OFF NICELY WITH READINGS
NEAR GUIDANCE BY MORNING.

SUNDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE MOVES FROM THE CWA TO THE
MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OVER THE WEST
WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO ID/WY/UT...PINCHING OFF UPPER
RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLOWER RETURN OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON POPS UNTIL VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT ABOUT A CUT-OFF LOW CROSSING THE
REGION THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS...HOWEVER NOW BOTH THE ECM AND GFS SHOW A
SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. MODELS SHOWED A SIMILAR SOLUTION TWO OR THREE DAYS AGO
BEFORE QUICKLY ABANDONING IT...BUT NOW ITS BACK AGAIN. EITHER
WAY...SEE NO REASON TO ADD POPS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING.
ISSUED AT 501 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KUNR 202027
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
227 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE SD PLAINS
WITH WINDS PEAKING SO WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UNTIL EXPIRATION AT
23Z.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL OFF NICELY WITH READINGS
NEAR GUIDANCE BY MORNING.

SUNDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE MOVES FROM THE CWA TO THE
MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OVER THE WEST
WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO ID/WY/UT...PINCHING OFF UPPER
RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLOWER RETURN OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON POPS UNTIL VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT ABOUT A CUT-OFF LOW CROSSING THE
REGION THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS...HOWEVER NOW BOTH THE ECM AND GFS SHOW A
SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. MODELS SHOWED A SIMILAR SOLUTION TWO OR THREE DAYS AGO
BEFORE QUICKLY ABANDONING IT...BUT NOW ITS BACK AGAIN. EITHER
WAY...SEE NO REASON TO ADD POPS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-025-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 202027
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
227 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE SD PLAINS
WITH WINDS PEAKING SO WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UNTIL EXPIRATION AT
23Z.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL OFF NICELY WITH READINGS
NEAR GUIDANCE BY MORNING.

SUNDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE MOVES FROM THE CWA TO THE
MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OVER THE WEST
WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO ID/WY/UT...PINCHING OFF UPPER
RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLOWER RETURN OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON POPS UNTIL VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT ABOUT A CUT-OFF LOW CROSSING THE
REGION THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS...HOWEVER NOW BOTH THE ECM AND GFS SHOW A
SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. MODELS SHOWED A SIMILAR SOLUTION TWO OR THREE DAYS AGO
BEFORE QUICKLY ABANDONING IT...BUT NOW ITS BACK AGAIN. EITHER
WAY...SEE NO REASON TO ADD POPS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-025-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13





000
FXUS63 KABR 202018
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
318 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER NERN
SD AND WRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MODERATE TO HIGH

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY CONTINUES TO TRACK
ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT HAS LED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN ND AND NERN SD...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE I-29 CORRIDOR AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED RATHER
MEAGER /MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/ DUE TO MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE /40+ KNOTS/...SO A FEW
MINI-SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS ARE LIKELY...EMBEDDED IN THE BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITIY
WILL MOVE E/SEWD FAIRLY RAPIDLY...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA
BY 5 OR 6 PM.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A RATHER SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE
TAKING PLACE WITH A BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK WAVE WILL UNDERCUT THIS FEATURE MONDAY NIGHT. PROFILES
UNDER THIS REGIME SUGGEST A HEAVILY MODIFIED PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE...WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THE WEAK WAVE REINTEGRATES WITH THE JET
STREAM AROUND MID WEEK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL
BE THE END SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS TO THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS/VISBY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA TODAY
WILL SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS FOR KABR/KATY
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS ARE EAST OF THESE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST/NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE TROF PASSES
OVERHEAD AS WELL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...FOWLE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 202018
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
318 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER NERN
SD AND WRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MODERATE TO HIGH

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY CONTINUES TO TRACK
ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT HAS LED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN ND AND NERN SD...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE I-29 CORRIDOR AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED RATHER
MEAGER /MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/ DUE TO MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE /40+ KNOTS/...SO A FEW
MINI-SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS ARE LIKELY...EMBEDDED IN THE BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITIY
WILL MOVE E/SEWD FAIRLY RAPIDLY...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA
BY 5 OR 6 PM.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A RATHER SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE
TAKING PLACE WITH A BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK WAVE WILL UNDERCUT THIS FEATURE MONDAY NIGHT. PROFILES
UNDER THIS REGIME SUGGEST A HEAVILY MODIFIED PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE...WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THE WEAK WAVE REINTEGRATES WITH THE JET
STREAM AROUND MID WEEK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL
BE THE END SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS TO THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS/VISBY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA TODAY
WILL SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS FOR KABR/KATY
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS ARE EAST OF THESE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST/NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE TROF PASSES
OVERHEAD AS WELL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...FOWLE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 201956
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POTENT SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG 140+ KNOT UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
DROPPING SE THROUGH THE REGION. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A WEAK PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EDGE EASTWARD TOWARD THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MORE POTENT FRONT...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S AND TEMPERATURE QUICKLY MIXING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES
AS THE UPPER WAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA.  LATEST HI-RES DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR TAIL END STORMS ON THE SWRN
FLANK OF MORE ORGANIZED MCS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW INSTABILITY AND HIGH SHEAR SETUP WOULD SUPPORT LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION...AND EVEN A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS.  THE MAIN RISKS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN AMBIENT FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND
STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THIN CAPE PROFILES AND PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY...WOULD LEAN AGAINST A LARGE HAIL RISK.

ANY RISK OF CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE VERY EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE EFFECTIVE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY 7PM.
ANTICIPATING A BRIEF WINDOW OF RATHER GUSTY WINDS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY PLEASANT.  WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH
TEMPERATURES EITHER SIDE OF THE 70 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND PRETTY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IT SHOULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 40S AND BE
THE COOLEST NIGHT IN THIS STRETCH. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING THE
SLOW APPROACH FROM THE SW OF CURRENT SOUTHERN CA TROUGH CUTTING
THROUGH THE ROCKIES RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING HALF
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT NOT TOO MUCH LIFT AND INSTABILITY.
TIMING PUTS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A VERY FEW
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST SD...OVER THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DECREASING THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME OF
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE MARKED BY A LOW DIURNAL RANGE WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

THE ABATING OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAKE PLACE WITH THE PASSING OF THE
WAVE. GFS THEN SHOWS A WAVE BREAKING OFF FROM THE CANADIAN JET AND
DIGGING AROUND REBUILDING ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE. THE EC SHOWS A BROAD
BUILDING OF HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE USA WITH A
VERY WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. BECAUSE THIS FEATURE IS SHOWN SO
WEAK...THIS WOULD TEND TO BRING IN DRY AIR FROM THE RIDGING TO THE
EAST. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH DRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY SINCE EVEN THE
GFS SHOWS WEAK THERMODYNAMICS...INCLUDING WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH
ITS STRONGER SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WOULD WARM BACK FULLY INTO THE 70S WHILE LOWS WOULD STAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A POTENT UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING A STRONGER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. AT THE TIME...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
WELL NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT WILL HAVE MINOR CONCERNS
ABOUT BRIEF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THIS
EVENING.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 201956
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POTENT SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG 140+ KNOT UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
DROPPING SE THROUGH THE REGION. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A WEAK PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EDGE EASTWARD TOWARD THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MORE POTENT FRONT...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S AND TEMPERATURE QUICKLY MIXING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES
AS THE UPPER WAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA.  LATEST HI-RES DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR TAIL END STORMS ON THE SWRN
FLANK OF MORE ORGANIZED MCS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW INSTABILITY AND HIGH SHEAR SETUP WOULD SUPPORT LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION...AND EVEN A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS.  THE MAIN RISKS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN AMBIENT FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND
STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THIN CAPE PROFILES AND PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY...WOULD LEAN AGAINST A LARGE HAIL RISK.

ANY RISK OF CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE VERY EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE EFFECTIVE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY 7PM.
ANTICIPATING A BRIEF WINDOW OF RATHER GUSTY WINDS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY PLEASANT.  WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH
TEMPERATURES EITHER SIDE OF THE 70 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND PRETTY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IT SHOULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 40S AND BE
THE COOLEST NIGHT IN THIS STRETCH. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING THE
SLOW APPROACH FROM THE SW OF CURRENT SOUTHERN CA TROUGH CUTTING
THROUGH THE ROCKIES RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING HALF
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT NOT TOO MUCH LIFT AND INSTABILITY.
TIMING PUTS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A VERY FEW
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST SD...OVER THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DECREASING THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME OF
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE MARKED BY A LOW DIURNAL RANGE WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

THE ABATING OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAKE PLACE WITH THE PASSING OF THE
WAVE. GFS THEN SHOWS A WAVE BREAKING OFF FROM THE CANADIAN JET AND
DIGGING AROUND REBUILDING ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE. THE EC SHOWS A BROAD
BUILDING OF HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE USA WITH A
VERY WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. BECAUSE THIS FEATURE IS SHOWN SO
WEAK...THIS WOULD TEND TO BRING IN DRY AIR FROM THE RIDGING TO THE
EAST. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH DRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY SINCE EVEN THE
GFS SHOWS WEAK THERMODYNAMICS...INCLUDING WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH
ITS STRONGER SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WOULD WARM BACK FULLY INTO THE 70S WHILE LOWS WOULD STAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A POTENT UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING A STRONGER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. AT THE TIME...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
WELL NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT WILL HAVE MINOR CONCERNS
ABOUT BRIEF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THIS
EVENING.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 201956
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POTENT SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG 140+ KNOT UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
DROPPING SE THROUGH THE REGION. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A WEAK PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EDGE EASTWARD TOWARD THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MORE POTENT FRONT...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S AND TEMPERATURE QUICKLY MIXING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES
AS THE UPPER WAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA.  LATEST HI-RES DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR TAIL END STORMS ON THE SWRN
FLANK OF MORE ORGANIZED MCS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW INSTABILITY AND HIGH SHEAR SETUP WOULD SUPPORT LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION...AND EVEN A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS.  THE MAIN RISKS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN AMBIENT FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND
STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THIN CAPE PROFILES AND PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY...WOULD LEAN AGAINST A LARGE HAIL RISK.

ANY RISK OF CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE VERY EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE EFFECTIVE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY 7PM.
ANTICIPATING A BRIEF WINDOW OF RATHER GUSTY WINDS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY PLEASANT.  WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH
TEMPERATURES EITHER SIDE OF THE 70 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND PRETTY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IT SHOULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 40S AND BE
THE COOLEST NIGHT IN THIS STRETCH. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING THE
SLOW APPROACH FROM THE SW OF CURRENT SOUTHERN CA TROUGH CUTTING
THROUGH THE ROCKIES RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING HALF
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT NOT TOO MUCH LIFT AND INSTABILITY.
TIMING PUTS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A VERY FEW
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST SD...OVER THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DECREASING THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME OF
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE MARKED BY A LOW DIURNAL RANGE WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

THE ABATING OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAKE PLACE WITH THE PASSING OF THE
WAVE. GFS THEN SHOWS A WAVE BREAKING OFF FROM THE CANADIAN JET AND
DIGGING AROUND REBUILDING ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE. THE EC SHOWS A BROAD
BUILDING OF HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE USA WITH A
VERY WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. BECAUSE THIS FEATURE IS SHOWN SO
WEAK...THIS WOULD TEND TO BRING IN DRY AIR FROM THE RIDGING TO THE
EAST. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH DRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY SINCE EVEN THE
GFS SHOWS WEAK THERMODYNAMICS...INCLUDING WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH
ITS STRONGER SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WOULD WARM BACK FULLY INTO THE 70S WHILE LOWS WOULD STAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A POTENT UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING A STRONGER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. AT THE TIME...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
WELL NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT WILL HAVE MINOR CONCERNS
ABOUT BRIEF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THIS
EVENING.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 201956
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POTENT SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG 140+ KNOT UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
DROPPING SE THROUGH THE REGION. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A WEAK PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EDGE EASTWARD TOWARD THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MORE POTENT FRONT...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S AND TEMPERATURE QUICKLY MIXING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES
AS THE UPPER WAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA.  LATEST HI-RES DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR TAIL END STORMS ON THE SWRN
FLANK OF MORE ORGANIZED MCS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW INSTABILITY AND HIGH SHEAR SETUP WOULD SUPPORT LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION...AND EVEN A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS.  THE MAIN RISKS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN AMBIENT FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND
STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THIN CAPE PROFILES AND PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY...WOULD LEAN AGAINST A LARGE HAIL RISK.

ANY RISK OF CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE VERY EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE EFFECTIVE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY 7PM.
ANTICIPATING A BRIEF WINDOW OF RATHER GUSTY WINDS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY PLEASANT.  WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH
TEMPERATURES EITHER SIDE OF THE 70 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND PRETTY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IT SHOULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 40S AND BE
THE COOLEST NIGHT IN THIS STRETCH. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING THE
SLOW APPROACH FROM THE SW OF CURRENT SOUTHERN CA TROUGH CUTTING
THROUGH THE ROCKIES RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING HALF
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT NOT TOO MUCH LIFT AND INSTABILITY.
TIMING PUTS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A VERY FEW
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST SD...OVER THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DECREASING THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME OF
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE MARKED BY A LOW DIURNAL RANGE WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

THE ABATING OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAKE PLACE WITH THE PASSING OF THE
WAVE. GFS THEN SHOWS A WAVE BREAKING OFF FROM THE CANADIAN JET AND
DIGGING AROUND REBUILDING ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE. THE EC SHOWS A BROAD
BUILDING OF HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE USA WITH A
VERY WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. BECAUSE THIS FEATURE IS SHOWN SO
WEAK...THIS WOULD TEND TO BRING IN DRY AIR FROM THE RIDGING TO THE
EAST. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH DRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY SINCE EVEN THE
GFS SHOWS WEAK THERMODYNAMICS...INCLUDING WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH
ITS STRONGER SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WOULD WARM BACK FULLY INTO THE 70S WHILE LOWS WOULD STAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A POTENT UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING A STRONGER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. AT THE TIME...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
WELL NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT WILL HAVE MINOR CONCERNS
ABOUT BRIEF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THIS
EVENING.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KABR 201732
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1232 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...

SEE BELOW FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS UPPER
FEATURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS OVER NERN SD AND WRN MN THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER MEAGER /MLCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG/ BUT DEEP LAYER WILL BE IMPRESSIVE /40+
KNOTS/...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MINI-SUPERCELL TYPE
STORMS. AS MENTIONED...MID-LEVEL FLOW IS QUITE STRONG SO EXPECTING
WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS STRONG WINDS ARE TRANSLATED TO
THE SFC...BUT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS AND POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS. THE SPC DAY 1
FORECAST PULLED THE SLIGHT RISK AS FAR WEST AS KABR...AND THIS
LOOKED REASONABLE. ALSO WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NW WINDS
ACROSS THE WEST BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...BUT AT THIS POINT STILL
FEEL THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. UPDATES ALREADY
OUT.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR
MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY AND MAY EVEN GET INTO LOW END CRITERIA
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS. NO ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
AS IT APPEARS HIGHEST SPEEDS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. SOMETHING TO MONITOR THOUGH AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST. NICE MID LEVEL JET MAX MOVES
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY WITH FAVORABLE EXIT REGION CENTERED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...WHICH LEADS
TO FAIRLY MEAGER MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH...0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO MN. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS LINE MAY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING THE LINE OF
STORMS MOVING OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT VARY A BIT IN ITS
SOUTHERN EXTENT INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
FORCING AND FORWARD MOTION OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING STRONG WINDS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. BEST AREA THOUGH
IS ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY AND ON INTO MN...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW STORMS SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

REST OF THE SHORT TERM IS QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
TERM COOLER IS USED LOOSELY AS TEMPS WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION. STUCK WITH ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WED MORNING. FOR REFERENCE THOUGH THE
0Z GFS IS A LITTLE DRIER AND DOES NOT CARRY THE PRECIP AS FAR
NORTH AS THE ECMWF AND THE ALLBLEND. THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH IF IT BECOMES A PERSISTENT TREND. BY WED NIGHT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.








&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS/VISBY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA TODAY
WILL SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS FOR KABR/KATY
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS ARE EAST OF THESE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST/NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE TROF PASSES
OVERHEAD AS WELL.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 201732
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1232 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...

SEE BELOW FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS UPPER
FEATURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS OVER NERN SD AND WRN MN THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER MEAGER /MLCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG/ BUT DEEP LAYER WILL BE IMPRESSIVE /40+
KNOTS/...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MINI-SUPERCELL TYPE
STORMS. AS MENTIONED...MID-LEVEL FLOW IS QUITE STRONG SO EXPECTING
WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS STRONG WINDS ARE TRANSLATED TO
THE SFC...BUT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS AND POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS. THE SPC DAY 1
FORECAST PULLED THE SLIGHT RISK AS FAR WEST AS KABR...AND THIS
LOOKED REASONABLE. ALSO WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NW WINDS
ACROSS THE WEST BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...BUT AT THIS POINT STILL
FEEL THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. UPDATES ALREADY
OUT.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR
MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY AND MAY EVEN GET INTO LOW END CRITERIA
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS. NO ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
AS IT APPEARS HIGHEST SPEEDS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. SOMETHING TO MONITOR THOUGH AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST. NICE MID LEVEL JET MAX MOVES
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY WITH FAVORABLE EXIT REGION CENTERED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...WHICH LEADS
TO FAIRLY MEAGER MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH...0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO MN. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS LINE MAY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING THE LINE OF
STORMS MOVING OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT VARY A BIT IN ITS
SOUTHERN EXTENT INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
FORCING AND FORWARD MOTION OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING STRONG WINDS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. BEST AREA THOUGH
IS ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY AND ON INTO MN...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW STORMS SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

REST OF THE SHORT TERM IS QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
TERM COOLER IS USED LOOSELY AS TEMPS WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION. STUCK WITH ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WED MORNING. FOR REFERENCE THOUGH THE
0Z GFS IS A LITTLE DRIER AND DOES NOT CARRY THE PRECIP AS FAR
NORTH AS THE ECMWF AND THE ALLBLEND. THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH IF IT BECOMES A PERSISTENT TREND. BY WED NIGHT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.








&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS/VISBY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA TODAY
WILL SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS FOR KABR/KATY
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS ARE EAST OF THESE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST/NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE TROF PASSES
OVERHEAD AS WELL.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 201725
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1125 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LL COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR SOME
EXITING MORNING SHRA OVER SCENTRAL SD. STRONG LL MOMENTUM FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WITH DIURNAL
MIXING/PRESSURE RISES/AND CAA WILL SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS NW SD
TODAY...THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL AGAIN
SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...WITH WARMING CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW CONUS CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A SHRA/TS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT FAR SW.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LINGERING PRE-DAWN SHRA/TS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA WILL WANE AS THE LL THETA-E RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH AND JET
STREAK FORCING WANES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE NW SD PLAINS. STRONG
ISOLATION WILL SUPPORT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONG LL FLOW
GIVEN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES/CAA REGIME/AND SFC PRESSURE RISES. BUFR
DATA SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS NW SD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AT TIMES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS UP THERE...AND WILL
ISSUE A WIND ADV. GIVEN THERMAL FIELDS...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES...ESP NW SD AND NE WY. COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS/AND DRY AIR IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OF THE REGION SUPPORTING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF. WAA WILL BE ONGOING WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS. SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT
TOWARD THE REGION UNDER THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE...WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. LEADING EDGE OF
HIGH THETA-E AIR /INDICATED WELL AT H7/ WILL ENTER THE SW FA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHRA/TS FAR SW. LACK OF STRONG FORCING WITH OVERNIGHT TIMING
SUPPORT A CONTINUED LOW POP ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT ABOUT A CUT-OFF LOW
CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW
WILL SET UP WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS
A RIDGE BUILDS...HOWEVER INSTEAD OF THE LOW PHASING BACK INTO THE
MAIN FLOW LIKE THE ECMWF...THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND HAS IT RETROGRESSING LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS IN LATER RUNS. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE CLEARING OUT SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE WET
WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-025-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KUNR 201725
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1125 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LL COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR SOME
EXITING MORNING SHRA OVER SCENTRAL SD. STRONG LL MOMENTUM FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WITH DIURNAL
MIXING/PRESSURE RISES/AND CAA WILL SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS NW SD
TODAY...THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL AGAIN
SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...WITH WARMING CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW CONUS CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A SHRA/TS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT FAR SW.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LINGERING PRE-DAWN SHRA/TS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA WILL WANE AS THE LL THETA-E RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH AND JET
STREAK FORCING WANES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE NW SD PLAINS. STRONG
ISOLATION WILL SUPPORT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONG LL FLOW
GIVEN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES/CAA REGIME/AND SFC PRESSURE RISES. BUFR
DATA SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS NW SD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AT TIMES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS UP THERE...AND WILL
ISSUE A WIND ADV. GIVEN THERMAL FIELDS...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES...ESP NW SD AND NE WY. COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS/AND DRY AIR IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OF THE REGION SUPPORTING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF. WAA WILL BE ONGOING WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS. SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT
TOWARD THE REGION UNDER THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE...WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. LEADING EDGE OF
HIGH THETA-E AIR /INDICATED WELL AT H7/ WILL ENTER THE SW FA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHRA/TS FAR SW. LACK OF STRONG FORCING WITH OVERNIGHT TIMING
SUPPORT A CONTINUED LOW POP ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT ABOUT A CUT-OFF LOW
CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW
WILL SET UP WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS
A RIDGE BUILDS...HOWEVER INSTEAD OF THE LOW PHASING BACK INTO THE
MAIN FLOW LIKE THE ECMWF...THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND HAS IT RETROGRESSING LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS IN LATER RUNS. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE CLEARING OUT SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE WET
WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-025-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KFSD 201658
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1158 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO SAG ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHWEST
IOWA THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE EXITING THE REGION.
CONVECTION WHICH FIRED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
FINALLY EXITED THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER WEST...A BAND OF HIGH
BASED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER HAS FORMED
ALONG A WEAK AREA OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND IS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS
PRECIPITATION WELL...BUT THINK THAT IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH
AROUND MID MORNING AND WILL BE MAINLY SPRINKLES OR A FEW HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE TODAY...HOLDING OFF UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT QUICKLY DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN
MILD IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THIS FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A MINOR SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FAST MOVING WAVE MAY CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE. WEAK INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA
WILL SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. WINDS
DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LEADING TO MUCH COOLER
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN A PLEASANT DAY.
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU. WILL BE A
BIT COOLER AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING US TO DROP INTO THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH
AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL BEGIN TO MEANDER INTO THE PLAINS. THINK THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BR DRY THOUGH...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FIGHTING TO
OVERCOME A PRETTY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...SO RAINFALL PROGRESSION
EAST WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW. THUS ON MONDAY NIGHT THE MAJORITY OF ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THINKING THIS PERIOD ENDS UP PRETTY WET WITH AT LEAST
OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND
MOISTURE SLOWLY DECREASES...SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW
AROUND. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO KEPT THE THUNDER MENTION LIMITED. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO REMOVE THUNDER ALTOGETHER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
HIGHS WILL BE COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WE BEGIN TO SEE THE UPPER LOW DISSIPATE.
JUST HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS IS UNCERTAIN WITH THE GFS AND GEM
LINGERING THE LOW NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEK. EITHER WAY WOULD EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD BE AN ISSUE IF THE
LOW REMAINS NEARBY. MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW WARM WE ARE ABLE TO
GET...FOR NOW KEPT CONSENSUS VALUES OF MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER IF THE LOW DOES DISSIPATE QUICKER AS
THE ECMWF SHOWS...WE WOULD LIKELY END UP AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STILL SEEM LIKE THEY SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A POTENT UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING A STRONGER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. AT THE TIME...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
WELL NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT WILL HAVE MINOR CONCERNS
ABOUT BRIEF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THIS
EVENING.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...DUX



000
FXUS63 KABR 201547
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1047 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS UPPER
FEATURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS OVER NERN SD AND WRN MN THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER MEAGER /MLCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG/ BUT DEEP LAYER WILL BE IMPRESSIVE /40+
KNOTS/...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MINI-SUPERCELL TYPE
STORMS. AS MENTIONED...MID-LEVEL FLOW IS QUITE STRONG SO EXPECTING
WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS STRONG WINDS ARE TRANSLATED TO
THE SFC...BUT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS AND POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS. THE SPC DAY 1
FORECAST PULLED THE SLIGHT RISK AS FAR WEST AS KABR...AND THIS
LOOKED REASONABLE. ALSO WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NW WINDS
ACROSS THE WEST BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...BUT AT THIS POINT STILL
FEEL THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. UPDATES ALREADY
OUT.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR
MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY AND MAY EVEN GET INTO LOW END CRITERIA
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS. NO ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
AS IT APPEARS HIGHEST SPEEDS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. SOMETHING TO MONITOR THOUGH AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST. NICE MID LEVEL JET MAX MOVES
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY WITH FAVORABLE EXIT REGION CENTERED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...WHICH LEADS
TO FAIRLY MEAGER MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH...0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO MN. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS LINE MAY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING THE LINE OF
STORMS MOVING OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT VARY A BIT IN ITS
SOUTHERN EXTENT INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
FORCING AND FORWARD MOTION OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING STRONG WINDS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. BEST AREA THOUGH
IS ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY AND ON INTO MN...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW STORMS SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

REST OF THE SHORT TERM IS QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
TERM COOLER IS USED LOOSELY AS TEMPS WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION. STUCK WITH ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WED MORNING. FOR REFERENCE THOUGH THE
0Z GFS IS A LITTLE DRIER AND DOES NOT CARRY THE PRECIP AS FAR
NORTH AS THE ECMWF AND THE ALLBLEND. THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH IF IT BECOMES A PERSISTENT TREND. BY WED NIGHT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT 25 TO 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST SD THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 201547
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1047 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS UPPER
FEATURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS OVER NERN SD AND WRN MN THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER MEAGER /MLCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG/ BUT DEEP LAYER WILL BE IMPRESSIVE /40+
KNOTS/...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MINI-SUPERCELL TYPE
STORMS. AS MENTIONED...MID-LEVEL FLOW IS QUITE STRONG SO EXPECTING
WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS STRONG WINDS ARE TRANSLATED TO
THE SFC...BUT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS AND POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS. THE SPC DAY 1
FORECAST PULLED THE SLIGHT RISK AS FAR WEST AS KABR...AND THIS
LOOKED REASONABLE. ALSO WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NW WINDS
ACROSS THE WEST BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...BUT AT THIS POINT STILL
FEEL THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. UPDATES ALREADY
OUT.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR
MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY AND MAY EVEN GET INTO LOW END CRITERIA
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS. NO ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
AS IT APPEARS HIGHEST SPEEDS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. SOMETHING TO MONITOR THOUGH AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST. NICE MID LEVEL JET MAX MOVES
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY WITH FAVORABLE EXIT REGION CENTERED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...WHICH LEADS
TO FAIRLY MEAGER MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH...0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO MN. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS LINE MAY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING THE LINE OF
STORMS MOVING OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT VARY A BIT IN ITS
SOUTHERN EXTENT INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
FORCING AND FORWARD MOTION OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING STRONG WINDS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. BEST AREA THOUGH
IS ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY AND ON INTO MN...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW STORMS SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

REST OF THE SHORT TERM IS QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
TERM COOLER IS USED LOOSELY AS TEMPS WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION. STUCK WITH ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WED MORNING. FOR REFERENCE THOUGH THE
0Z GFS IS A LITTLE DRIER AND DOES NOT CARRY THE PRECIP AS FAR
NORTH AS THE ECMWF AND THE ALLBLEND. THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH IF IT BECOMES A PERSISTENT TREND. BY WED NIGHT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT 25 TO 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST SD THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 201133
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
633 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO SAG ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHWEST
IOWA THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE EXITING THE REGION.
CONVECTION WHICH FIRED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
FINALLY EXITED THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER WEST...A BAND OF HIGH
BASED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER HAS FORMED
ALONG A WEAK AREA OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND IS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS
PRECIPITATION WELL...BUT THINK THAT IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH
AROUND MID MORNING AND WILL BE MAINLY SPRINKLES OR A FEW HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE TODAY...HOLDING OFF UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT QUICKLY DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN
MILD IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THIS FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A MINOR SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FAST MOVING WAVE MAY CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE. WEAK INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA
WILL SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. WINDS
DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LEADING TO MUCH COOLER
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN A PLEASANT DAY.
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU. WILL BE A
BIT COOLER AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING US TO DROP INTO THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH
AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL BEGIN TO MEANDER INTO THE PLAINS. THINK THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BR DRY THOUGH...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FIGHTING TO
OVERCOME A PRETTY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...SO RAINFALL PROGRESSION
EAST WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW. THUS ON MONDAY NIGHT THE MAJORITY OF ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THINKING THIS PERIOD ENDS UP PRETTY WET WITH AT LEAST
OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND
MOISTURE SLOWLY DECREASES...SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW
AROUND. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO KEPT THE THUNDER MENTION LIMITED. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO REMOVE THUNDER ALTOGETHER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
HIGHS WILL BE COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WE BEGIN TO SEE THE UPPER LOW DISSIPATE.
JUST HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS IS UNCERTAIN WITH THE GFS AND GEM
LINGERING THE LOW NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEK. EITHER WAY WOULD EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD BE AN ISSUE IF THE
LOW REMAINS NEARBY. MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW WARM WE ARE ABLE TO
GET...FOR NOW KEPT CONSENSUS VALUES OF MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER IF THE LOW DOES DISSIPATE QUICKER AS
THE ECMWF SHOWS...WE WOULD LIKELY END UP AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STILL SEEM LIKE THEY SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID CLOUDS
WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TSRA THROUGH 15Z FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
I-90. THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY...AND REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
AFTER 17Z...AND WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE WEST. EXPECT SOME
GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH 02Z BEFORE DIMINISHING MID TO LATE EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 201133
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
633 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO SAG ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHWEST
IOWA THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE EXITING THE REGION.
CONVECTION WHICH FIRED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
FINALLY EXITED THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER WEST...A BAND OF HIGH
BASED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER HAS FORMED
ALONG A WEAK AREA OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND IS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS
PRECIPITATION WELL...BUT THINK THAT IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH
AROUND MID MORNING AND WILL BE MAINLY SPRINKLES OR A FEW HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE TODAY...HOLDING OFF UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT QUICKLY DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN
MILD IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THIS FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A MINOR SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FAST MOVING WAVE MAY CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE. WEAK INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA
WILL SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. WINDS
DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LEADING TO MUCH COOLER
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN A PLEASANT DAY.
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU. WILL BE A
BIT COOLER AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING US TO DROP INTO THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH
AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL BEGIN TO MEANDER INTO THE PLAINS. THINK THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BR DRY THOUGH...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FIGHTING TO
OVERCOME A PRETTY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...SO RAINFALL PROGRESSION
EAST WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW. THUS ON MONDAY NIGHT THE MAJORITY OF ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THINKING THIS PERIOD ENDS UP PRETTY WET WITH AT LEAST
OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND
MOISTURE SLOWLY DECREASES...SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW
AROUND. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO KEPT THE THUNDER MENTION LIMITED. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO REMOVE THUNDER ALTOGETHER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
HIGHS WILL BE COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WE BEGIN TO SEE THE UPPER LOW DISSIPATE.
JUST HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS IS UNCERTAIN WITH THE GFS AND GEM
LINGERING THE LOW NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEK. EITHER WAY WOULD EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD BE AN ISSUE IF THE
LOW REMAINS NEARBY. MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW WARM WE ARE ABLE TO
GET...FOR NOW KEPT CONSENSUS VALUES OF MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER IF THE LOW DOES DISSIPATE QUICKER AS
THE ECMWF SHOWS...WE WOULD LIKELY END UP AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STILL SEEM LIKE THEY SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID CLOUDS
WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TSRA THROUGH 15Z FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
I-90. THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY...AND REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
AFTER 17Z...AND WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE WEST. EXPECT SOME
GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH 02Z BEFORE DIMINISHING MID TO LATE EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KABR 201132 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
632 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR
MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY AND MAY EVEN GET INTO LOW END CRITERIA
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS. NO ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
AS IT APPEARS HIGHEST SPEEDS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. SOMETHING TO MONITOR THOUGH AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST. NICE MID LEVEL JET MAX MOVES
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY WITH FAVORABLE EXIT REGION CENTERED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...WHICH LEADS
TO FAIRLY MEAGER MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH...0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO MN. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS LINE MAY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING THE LINE OF
STORMS MOVING OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT VARY A BIT IN ITS
SOUTHERN EXTENT INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
FORCING AND FORWARD MOTION OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING STRONG WINDS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. BEST AREA THOUGH
IS ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY AND ON INTO MN...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW STORMS SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

REST OF THE SHORT TERM IS QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
TERM COOLER IS USED LOOSELY AS TEMPS WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION. STUCK WITH ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WED MORNING. FOR REFERENCE THOUGH THE
0Z GFS IS A LITTLE DRIER AND DOES NOT CARRY THE PRECIP AS FAR
NORTH AS THE ECMWF AND THE ALLBLEND. THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH IF IT BECOMES A PERSISTENT TREND. BY WED NIGHT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT 25 TO 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST SD THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 201132 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
632 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR
MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY AND MAY EVEN GET INTO LOW END CRITERIA
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS. NO ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
AS IT APPEARS HIGHEST SPEEDS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. SOMETHING TO MONITOR THOUGH AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST. NICE MID LEVEL JET MAX MOVES
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY WITH FAVORABLE EXIT REGION CENTERED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...WHICH LEADS
TO FAIRLY MEAGER MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH...0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO MN. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS LINE MAY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING THE LINE OF
STORMS MOVING OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT VARY A BIT IN ITS
SOUTHERN EXTENT INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
FORCING AND FORWARD MOTION OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING STRONG WINDS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. BEST AREA THOUGH
IS ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY AND ON INTO MN...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW STORMS SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

REST OF THE SHORT TERM IS QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
TERM COOLER IS USED LOOSELY AS TEMPS WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION. STUCK WITH ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WED MORNING. FOR REFERENCE THOUGH THE
0Z GFS IS A LITTLE DRIER AND DOES NOT CARRY THE PRECIP AS FAR
NORTH AS THE ECMWF AND THE ALLBLEND. THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH IF IT BECOMES A PERSISTENT TREND. BY WED NIGHT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT 25 TO 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST SD THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KUNR 201112
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
512 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LL COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR SOME
EXITING MORNING SHRA OVER SCENTRAL SD. STRONG LL MOMENTUM FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WITH DIURNAL
MIXING/PRESSURE RISES/AND CAA WILL SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS NW SD
TODAY...THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL AGAIN
SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...WITH WARMING CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW CONUS CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A SHRA/TS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT FAR SW.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LINGERING PRE-DAWN SHRA/TS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA WILL WANE AS THE LL THETA-E RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH AND JET
STREAK FORCING WANES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE NW SD PLAINS. STRONG
ISOLATION WILL SUPPORT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONG LL FLOW
GIVEN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES/CAA REGIME/AND SFC PRESSURE RISES. BUFR
DATA SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS NW SD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AT TIMES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS UP THERE...AND WILL
ISSUE A WIND ADV. GIVEN THERMAL FIELDS...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES...ESP NW SD AND NE WY. COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS/AND DRY AIR IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OF THE REGION SUPPORTING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF. WAA WILL BE ONGOING WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS. SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT
TOWARD THE REGION UNDER THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE...WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. LEADING EDGE OF
HIGH THETA-E AIR /INDICATED WELL AT H7/ WILL ENTER THE SW FA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHRA/TS FAR SW. LACK OF STRONG FORCING WITH OVERNIGHT TIMING
SUPPORT A CONTINUED LOW POP ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT ABOUT A CUT-OFF LOW
CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW
WILL SET UP WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS
A RIDGE BUILDS...HOWEVER INSTEAD OF THE LOW PHASING BACK INTO THE
MAIN FLOW LIKE THE ECMWF...THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND HAS IT RETROGRESSING LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS IN LATER RUNS. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE CLEARING OUT SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE WET
WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

STRONG N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY...DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-025-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 201112
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
512 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LL COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR SOME
EXITING MORNING SHRA OVER SCENTRAL SD. STRONG LL MOMENTUM FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WITH DIURNAL
MIXING/PRESSURE RISES/AND CAA WILL SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS NW SD
TODAY...THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL AGAIN
SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...WITH WARMING CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW CONUS CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A SHRA/TS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT FAR SW.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LINGERING PRE-DAWN SHRA/TS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA WILL WANE AS THE LL THETA-E RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH AND JET
STREAK FORCING WANES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE NW SD PLAINS. STRONG
ISOLATION WILL SUPPORT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONG LL FLOW
GIVEN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES/CAA REGIME/AND SFC PRESSURE RISES. BUFR
DATA SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS NW SD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AT TIMES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS UP THERE...AND WILL
ISSUE A WIND ADV. GIVEN THERMAL FIELDS...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES...ESP NW SD AND NE WY. COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS/AND DRY AIR IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OF THE REGION SUPPORTING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF. WAA WILL BE ONGOING WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS. SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT
TOWARD THE REGION UNDER THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE...WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. LEADING EDGE OF
HIGH THETA-E AIR /INDICATED WELL AT H7/ WILL ENTER THE SW FA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHRA/TS FAR SW. LACK OF STRONG FORCING WITH OVERNIGHT TIMING
SUPPORT A CONTINUED LOW POP ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT ABOUT A CUT-OFF LOW
CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW
WILL SET UP WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS
A RIDGE BUILDS...HOWEVER INSTEAD OF THE LOW PHASING BACK INTO THE
MAIN FLOW LIKE THE ECMWF...THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND HAS IT RETROGRESSING LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS IN LATER RUNS. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE CLEARING OUT SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE WET
WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

STRONG N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY...DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-025-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 201112
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
512 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LL COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR SOME
EXITING MORNING SHRA OVER SCENTRAL SD. STRONG LL MOMENTUM FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WITH DIURNAL
MIXING/PRESSURE RISES/AND CAA WILL SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS NW SD
TODAY...THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL AGAIN
SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...WITH WARMING CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW CONUS CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A SHRA/TS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT FAR SW.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LINGERING PRE-DAWN SHRA/TS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA WILL WANE AS THE LL THETA-E RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH AND JET
STREAK FORCING WANES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE NW SD PLAINS. STRONG
ISOLATION WILL SUPPORT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONG LL FLOW
GIVEN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES/CAA REGIME/AND SFC PRESSURE RISES. BUFR
DATA SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS NW SD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AT TIMES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS UP THERE...AND WILL
ISSUE A WIND ADV. GIVEN THERMAL FIELDS...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES...ESP NW SD AND NE WY. COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS/AND DRY AIR IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OF THE REGION SUPPORTING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF. WAA WILL BE ONGOING WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS. SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT
TOWARD THE REGION UNDER THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE...WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. LEADING EDGE OF
HIGH THETA-E AIR /INDICATED WELL AT H7/ WILL ENTER THE SW FA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHRA/TS FAR SW. LACK OF STRONG FORCING WITH OVERNIGHT TIMING
SUPPORT A CONTINUED LOW POP ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT ABOUT A CUT-OFF LOW
CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW
WILL SET UP WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS
A RIDGE BUILDS...HOWEVER INSTEAD OF THE LOW PHASING BACK INTO THE
MAIN FLOW LIKE THE ECMWF...THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND HAS IT RETROGRESSING LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS IN LATER RUNS. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE CLEARING OUT SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE WET
WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

STRONG N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY...DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-025-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 201112
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
512 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LL COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR SOME
EXITING MORNING SHRA OVER SCENTRAL SD. STRONG LL MOMENTUM FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WITH DIURNAL
MIXING/PRESSURE RISES/AND CAA WILL SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS NW SD
TODAY...THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL AGAIN
SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...WITH WARMING CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW CONUS CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A SHRA/TS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT FAR SW.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LINGERING PRE-DAWN SHRA/TS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA WILL WANE AS THE LL THETA-E RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH AND JET
STREAK FORCING WANES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE NW SD PLAINS. STRONG
ISOLATION WILL SUPPORT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONG LL FLOW
GIVEN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES/CAA REGIME/AND SFC PRESSURE RISES. BUFR
DATA SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS NW SD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AT TIMES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS UP THERE...AND WILL
ISSUE A WIND ADV. GIVEN THERMAL FIELDS...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES...ESP NW SD AND NE WY. COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS/AND DRY AIR IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OF THE REGION SUPPORTING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF. WAA WILL BE ONGOING WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS. SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT
TOWARD THE REGION UNDER THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE...WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. LEADING EDGE OF
HIGH THETA-E AIR /INDICATED WELL AT H7/ WILL ENTER THE SW FA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHRA/TS FAR SW. LACK OF STRONG FORCING WITH OVERNIGHT TIMING
SUPPORT A CONTINUED LOW POP ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT ABOUT A CUT-OFF LOW
CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW
WILL SET UP WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS
A RIDGE BUILDS...HOWEVER INSTEAD OF THE LOW PHASING BACK INTO THE
MAIN FLOW LIKE THE ECMWF...THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND HAS IT RETROGRESSING LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS IN LATER RUNS. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE CLEARING OUT SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE WET
WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

STRONG N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY...DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-025-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KABR 200846
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR
MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY AND MAY EVEN GET INTO LOW END CRITERIA
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS. NO ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
AS IT APPEARS HIGHEST SPEEDS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. SOMETHING TO MONITOR THOUGH AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST. NICE MID LEVEL JET MAX MOVES
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY WITH FAVORABLE EXIT REGION CENTERED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...WHICH LEADS
TO FAIRLY MEAGER MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH...0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO MN. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS LINE MAY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING THE LINE OF
STORMS MOVING OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT VARY A BIT IN ITS
SOUTHERN EXTENT INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
FORCING AND FORWARD MOTION OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING STRONG WINDS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. BEST AREA THOUGH
IS ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY AND ON INTO MN...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW STORMS SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

REST OF THE SHORT TERM IS QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
TERM COOLER IS USED LOOSELY AS TEMPS WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION. STUCK WITH ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WED MORNING. FOR REFERENCE THOUGH THE
0Z GFS IS A LITTLE DRIER AND DOES NOT CARRY THE PRECIP AS FAR
NORTH AS THE ECMWF AND THE ALLBLEND. THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH IF IT BECOMES A PERSISTENT TREND. BY WED NIGHT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 200846
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR
MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY AND MAY EVEN GET INTO LOW END CRITERIA
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS. NO ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
AS IT APPEARS HIGHEST SPEEDS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. SOMETHING TO MONITOR THOUGH AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST. NICE MID LEVEL JET MAX MOVES
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY WITH FAVORABLE EXIT REGION CENTERED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...WHICH LEADS
TO FAIRLY MEAGER MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH...0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO MN. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS LINE MAY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING THE LINE OF
STORMS MOVING OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT VARY A BIT IN ITS
SOUTHERN EXTENT INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
FORCING AND FORWARD MOTION OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING STRONG WINDS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. BEST AREA THOUGH
IS ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY AND ON INTO MN...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW STORMS SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

REST OF THE SHORT TERM IS QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
TERM COOLER IS USED LOOSELY AS TEMPS WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION. STUCK WITH ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WED MORNING. FOR REFERENCE THOUGH THE
0Z GFS IS A LITTLE DRIER AND DOES NOT CARRY THE PRECIP AS FAR
NORTH AS THE ECMWF AND THE ALLBLEND. THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH IF IT BECOMES A PERSISTENT TREND. BY WED NIGHT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 200846
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR
MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY AND MAY EVEN GET INTO LOW END CRITERIA
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS. NO ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
AS IT APPEARS HIGHEST SPEEDS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. SOMETHING TO MONITOR THOUGH AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST. NICE MID LEVEL JET MAX MOVES
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY WITH FAVORABLE EXIT REGION CENTERED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...WHICH LEADS
TO FAIRLY MEAGER MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH...0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO MN. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS LINE MAY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING THE LINE OF
STORMS MOVING OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT VARY A BIT IN ITS
SOUTHERN EXTENT INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
FORCING AND FORWARD MOTION OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING STRONG WINDS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. BEST AREA THOUGH
IS ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY AND ON INTO MN...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW STORMS SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

REST OF THE SHORT TERM IS QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
TERM COOLER IS USED LOOSELY AS TEMPS WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION. STUCK WITH ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WED MORNING. FOR REFERENCE THOUGH THE
0Z GFS IS A LITTLE DRIER AND DOES NOT CARRY THE PRECIP AS FAR
NORTH AS THE ECMWF AND THE ALLBLEND. THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH IF IT BECOMES A PERSISTENT TREND. BY WED NIGHT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 200846
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR
MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY AND MAY EVEN GET INTO LOW END CRITERIA
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS. NO ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
AS IT APPEARS HIGHEST SPEEDS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. SOMETHING TO MONITOR THOUGH AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST. NICE MID LEVEL JET MAX MOVES
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY WITH FAVORABLE EXIT REGION CENTERED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...WHICH LEADS
TO FAIRLY MEAGER MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH...0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO MN. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS LINE MAY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING THE LINE OF
STORMS MOVING OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT VARY A BIT IN ITS
SOUTHERN EXTENT INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
FORCING AND FORWARD MOTION OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING STRONG WINDS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. BEST AREA THOUGH
IS ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY AND ON INTO MN...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW STORMS SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

REST OF THE SHORT TERM IS QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
TERM COOLER IS USED LOOSELY AS TEMPS WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION. STUCK WITH ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WED MORNING. FOR REFERENCE THOUGH THE
0Z GFS IS A LITTLE DRIER AND DOES NOT CARRY THE PRECIP AS FAR
NORTH AS THE ECMWF AND THE ALLBLEND. THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH IF IT BECOMES A PERSISTENT TREND. BY WED NIGHT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KFSD 200825
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
325 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO SAG ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHWEST
IOWA THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE EXITING THE REGION.
CONVECTION WHICH FIRED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
FINALLY EXITED THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER WEST...A BAND OF HIGH
BASED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER HAS FORMED
ALONG A WEAK AREA OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND IS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS
PRECIPITATION WELL...BUT THINK THAT IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH
AROUND MID MORNING AND WILL BE MAINLY SPRINKLES OR A FEW HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE TODAY...HOLDING OFF UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT QUICKLY DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN
MILD IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THIS FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A MINOR SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FAST MOVING WAVE MAY CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE. WEAK INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA
WILL SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. WINDS
DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LEADING TO MUCH COOLER
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN A PLEASANT DAY.
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU. WILL BE A
BIT COOLER AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING US TO DROP INTO THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH
AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL BEGIN TO MEANDER INTO THE PLAINS. THINK THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BR DRY THOUGH...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FIGHTING TO
OVERCOME A PRETTY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...SO RAINFALL PROGRESSION
EAST WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW. THUS ON MONDAY NIGHT THE MAJORITY OF ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THINKING THIS PERIOD ENDS UP PRETTY WET WITH AT LEAST
OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND
MOISTURE SLOWLY DECREASES...SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW
AROUND. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO KEPT THE THUNDER MENTION LIMITED. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO REMOVE THUNDER ALTOGETHER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
HIGHS WILL BE COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WE BEGIN TO SEE THE UPPER LOW DISSIPATE.
JUST HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS IS UNCERTAIN WITH THE GFS AND GEM
LINGERING THE LOW NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEK. EITHER WAY WOULD EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD BE AN ISSUE IF THE
LOW REMAINS NEARBY. MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW WARM WE ARE ABLE TO
GET...FOR NOW KEPT CONSENSUS VALUES OF MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER IF THE LOW DOES DISSIPATE QUICKER AS
THE ECMWF SHOWS...WE WOULD LIKELY END UP AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STILL SEEM LIKE THEY SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT
TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 08Z IN THE KSUX AREA.
THESE STORMS SHOULD THEN MOVE SOUTH. AFTER THE CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

ONLY OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS FROM 15Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST NORTH OF I90 NEAR HON IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTS
MAY REACH 30 KTS IN THAT AREA. AROUND KFSD...GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS
AROUND KSUX. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH 06Z.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER




000
FXUS63 KFSD 200825
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
325 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO SAG ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHWEST
IOWA THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE EXITING THE REGION.
CONVECTION WHICH FIRED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
FINALLY EXITED THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER WEST...A BAND OF HIGH
BASED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER HAS FORMED
ALONG A WEAK AREA OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND IS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS
PRECIPITATION WELL...BUT THINK THAT IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH
AROUND MID MORNING AND WILL BE MAINLY SPRINKLES OR A FEW HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE TODAY...HOLDING OFF UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT QUICKLY DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN
MILD IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THIS FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A MINOR SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FAST MOVING WAVE MAY CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE. WEAK INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA
WILL SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. WINDS
DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LEADING TO MUCH COOLER
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN A PLEASANT DAY.
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU. WILL BE A
BIT COOLER AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING US TO DROP INTO THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH
AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL BEGIN TO MEANDER INTO THE PLAINS. THINK THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BR DRY THOUGH...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FIGHTING TO
OVERCOME A PRETTY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...SO RAINFALL PROGRESSION
EAST WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW. THUS ON MONDAY NIGHT THE MAJORITY OF ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THINKING THIS PERIOD ENDS UP PRETTY WET WITH AT LEAST
OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND
MOISTURE SLOWLY DECREASES...SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW
AROUND. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO KEPT THE THUNDER MENTION LIMITED. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO REMOVE THUNDER ALTOGETHER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
HIGHS WILL BE COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WE BEGIN TO SEE THE UPPER LOW DISSIPATE.
JUST HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS IS UNCERTAIN WITH THE GFS AND GEM
LINGERING THE LOW NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEK. EITHER WAY WOULD EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD BE AN ISSUE IF THE
LOW REMAINS NEARBY. MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW WARM WE ARE ABLE TO
GET...FOR NOW KEPT CONSENSUS VALUES OF MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER IF THE LOW DOES DISSIPATE QUICKER AS
THE ECMWF SHOWS...WE WOULD LIKELY END UP AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STILL SEEM LIKE THEY SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT
TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 08Z IN THE KSUX AREA.
THESE STORMS SHOULD THEN MOVE SOUTH. AFTER THE CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

ONLY OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS FROM 15Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST NORTH OF I90 NEAR HON IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTS
MAY REACH 30 KTS IN THAT AREA. AROUND KFSD...GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS
AROUND KSUX. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH 06Z.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER



000
FXUS63 KUNR 200758
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
158 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LL COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR SOME
EXITING MORNING SHRA OVER SCENTRAL SD. STRONG LL MOMENTUM FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WITH DIURNAL
MIXING/PRESSURE RISES/AND CAA WILL SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS NW SD
TODAY...THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL AGAIN
SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...WITH WARMING CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW CONUS CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A SHRA/TS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT FAR SW.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LINGERING PRE-DAWN SHRA/TS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA WILL WANE AS THE LL THETA-E RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH AND JET
STREAK FORCING WANES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE NW SD PLAINS. STRONG
ISOLATION WILL SUPPORT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONG LL FLOW
GIVEN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES/CAA REGIME/AND SFC PRESSURE RISES. BUFR
DATA SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS NW SD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AT TIMES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS UP THERE...AND WILL
ISSUE A WIND ADV. GIVEN THERMAL FIELDS...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES...ESP NW SD AND NE WY. COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS/AND DRY AIR IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OF THE REGION SUPPORTING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF. WAA WILL BE ONGOING WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS. SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT
TOWARD THE REGION UNDER THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE...WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. LEADING EDGE OF
HIGH THETA-E AIR /INDICATED WELL AT H7/ WILL ENTER THE SW FA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHRA/TS FAR SW. LACK OF STRONG FORCING WITH OVERNIGHT TIMING
SUPPORT A CONTINUED LOW POP ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT ABOUT A CUT-OFF LOW
CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW
WILL SET UP WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS
A RIDGE BUILDS...HOWEVER INSTEAD OF THE LOW PHASING BACK INTO THE
MAIN FLOW LIKE THE ECMWF...THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND HAS IT RETROGRESSING LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS IN LATER RUNS. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE CLEARING OUT SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE WET
WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

STRONG N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY...DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-025-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 200758
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
158 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LL COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR SOME
EXITING MORNING SHRA OVER SCENTRAL SD. STRONG LL MOMENTUM FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WITH DIURNAL
MIXING/PRESSURE RISES/AND CAA WILL SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS NW SD
TODAY...THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE PERIOD. WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL AGAIN
SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...WITH WARMING CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW CONUS CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A SHRA/TS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT FAR SW.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LINGERING PRE-DAWN SHRA/TS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA WILL WANE AS THE LL THETA-E RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH AND JET
STREAK FORCING WANES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE NW SD PLAINS. STRONG
ISOLATION WILL SUPPORT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONG LL FLOW
GIVEN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES/CAA REGIME/AND SFC PRESSURE RISES. BUFR
DATA SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS NW SD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AT TIMES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS UP THERE...AND WILL
ISSUE A WIND ADV. GIVEN THERMAL FIELDS...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES...ESP NW SD AND NE WY. COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS/AND DRY AIR IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OF THE REGION SUPPORTING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF. WAA WILL BE ONGOING WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS. SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT
TOWARD THE REGION UNDER THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE...WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. LEADING EDGE OF
HIGH THETA-E AIR /INDICATED WELL AT H7/ WILL ENTER THE SW FA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHRA/TS FAR SW. LACK OF STRONG FORCING WITH OVERNIGHT TIMING
SUPPORT A CONTINUED LOW POP ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT ABOUT A CUT-OFF LOW
CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW
WILL SET UP WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS
A RIDGE BUILDS...HOWEVER INSTEAD OF THE LOW PHASING BACK INTO THE
MAIN FLOW LIKE THE ECMWF...THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND HAS IT RETROGRESSING LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS IN LATER RUNS. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE CLEARING OUT SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE WET
WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

STRONG N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY...DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-025-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE






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